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  • 1
    19 Dec 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Yup.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • JCI has posted the powerpoint for today's strategic review on their website.

     

    http://bit.ly/R4P6GT

     

    The Power Solutions presentation starts on page 84 of the PDF.

     

    The most interesting point is that JCI is finally admitting they can't make a lead-acid battery good enough for micro-hybrids and they're working on a lithium-ion solution.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • On page 10 of "Power Solutions" it reads, "Emerging Micro-hybrid opportunity will further delay hybrid and electric vehicle mass adoption."\

     

    They categorize the micro-hybrid opportunity as a "white space" in battery technology. It looks like in their dual systems they are trying to pair a 12V lead acid with a 48V Lith-ion.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Vehicle energy storage market revenue opportunity will go from $26B in 2012 to $53B in 2017 and $81B in 2020. Axion taking just 1% of that would be $500M in revenue by 2017 just with auto...not bad.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • That's the biggest reason I don't worry about potential competition from other battery solutions!

     

    Automotive battery demand is facing a period of explosive growth, primarily in the high-performance range. Of the lead-acid alternatives, the PbC has the best power performance in the industry.

     

    When each point of market penetration represents a half billion in expected revenue within five years, all we need is a credible product offering and I think the PbC is more than credible.

     

    The industry's major challenge will be finding ways to satisfy the new demands, not finding new customers.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • It seems to me that we're extremely unlikely to get 1% of automotive.

     

    With BMW and a large Asian firm interested, I think we either get 0% or we get 10%+.

     

    I believe 10%+ is the more likely scenario and, obviously, have invested accordingly.

     

    D
    19 Dec 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Other interesting points are in the pag. 89:

     

    -. Emerging powertrains require a diverse set of energy storage technologies.
    -. Micro Hybrid (48V/12V)
    -. Micro Hybrid: Engine downsizing & Powertrain Boosting

     

    In pag. 90:

     

    -. End-consumers confirm high satisfaction with Start-
    Stop vehicles and willingness to pay for increased fuel
    economy.
    -. AGM batteries remain leading technology for Start-
    Stop vehicles.

     

    In pag. 91:

     

    -.Emerging opportunity positioned between start-stop and mild hybrids.
    -. Micro Hybrid applications will require a “non-lead-acid” energy
    storage solution.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • What does that last sentence mean ?
    19 Dec 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT,

     

    I believe it means JCI has chosen to ignore PbC and go with Lithium-ion. Their attempt to purchase AONE showed they are willing to sink multi-millions into Lithium.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • It's an admission by JCI that they can't get there with lead-acid, but I see nothing that indicates a conscious decision to ignore PbC. JCI is a very well run company and they will offer their customers the most cost-effective solution they can, because they know that pinching pennies is what automakers do best.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • They have to find something to prevent workers in their li-ion battery factory from becoming amateur carpenters. It is good for them to admit AGM is not capable for ASS system.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • I was surprised that JCI was not willing to pay more for A123 unless one of two things:
    1. they think that congress will deny the chinese the tech
    2. As JP stated below, they are the best ran co. in the business & they may know they can develop the tech cheaper than $250 mill.

     

    I don't like the fact that they do not acknowledge lead at all in any form and are going to work on a lithium storage/conv. lead acid starter battery....this may lead to a very small lithium battery compared to today and reduce costs to a more competitive level.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • LT: Don't forget that, as JP has pointed out, Li-ion has already had a long time on the learning curve and most available gains have been made. Factor in the portions of cost not able to benefit from the learning and economies of scale curves and the prospects for a "very small lithium battery compared to today" seems somewhat reduced. Smaller, maybe, but "very" would be doubtful.

     

    Regardless, the cost/KwH gains couldn't be expected to be much in this scenario either.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • To use a small lithium-ion battery in a micro-hybrid you need to have a lead-acid starter battery, a lithium-ion hotel load battery and some very complex control electronics to make the two devices play well together. The systems can work but they'll never be cheap because lithium-ion batteries can't get much cheaper.

     

    The entire thrust of my experience curve article was that it takes a doubling of CUMULATIVE volume since the beginning of time to eke out a 20% cost savings on an industrial technology. With billions of lithium-ion batteries sold globally every year and tens of billions since the beginning of time, the first doubling of cumulative volume will take years and the next doubling will likely take a decade.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • I'll emphasize one point here given the JCI presentation. JCI talked about lead acid and lithium ion as a possible two battery solution for 12/60 VDC architecture. It's something they are working on and not a given. There is a reason why teir presentation has an opportunity hole in their line-up.

     

    BTW, one thing to think about, Exide doesn't have lithium ion ops and JCI emphasized that they are their primary competition.

     

    Don't ignore the fact that cost is still a big factor. Ladies and gents, this is still a foot race and Axion is not sitting on the sidelines watching. Oh, and there will not be one solution. It's a big market. It may well be that Pb/lithium ion takes the very highest end of the advance SS market and PB/PbC takes a section in the middle. It's still a white space with no clear winner. The one thing we do know is enhanced flooded just went off the road.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • Let's not forget that they just got a patent for a combined LA/Li-ion battery case. Looks like they are trying to push this concept as the most viable choice for micro-hybrids on up.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • labtech: the Q might be will that solution be adopted. Some potential shortcomings have been suggested in past discussions, including disparity in lifetimes of the two portions. And from Iindelco's education (for me anyway), issues with placement packing constraints might arise. What about thermal tolerance disparities? Maybe there's more?

     

    Anyway, my thoughts run towards those sorts of unanswered questions when I think about that product. ISTM all they are doing is offering a more expensive lower total capacity alternative solution to a convenient and configurable two-battery solution that offers a lot of flexibility and, potentially, lower total cost (including reducing warranty costs if 1/2 of the solution fails during the covered period).

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • >LabTech ... It is a combination that could just work. Drawbacks would still remain on cost of the battery and environment operating conditions. There doesn't appear to be any capacitance built into it so I'm not sure how much DCA can be incorporated into it.

     

    The one thing I would bet big money on is that if JCI or Exide turn to Axion's PbC it will be because they have exhausted all the possibilities they could have thought of and developed in-house. Kind of a Winston Churchill type moment.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with that 100%....they only come as a last resort.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    " And from Iindelco's education (for me anyway), issues with placement packing constraints might arise. What about thermal tolerance disparities? Maybe there's more?"

     

    This was my thought of why JCI wanted A123. They wanted their new thermo-stable Li-ion battery to put in their two battery case. That way they didn't have to worry about thermal tolerance disparities and could just focus on where the battery case fit. Of course they may be working on a similar type of Li-ion battery in house. So losing A123 might slow them down in the short term but not the long term. Hopefully for us, it will slow them down enough that they will decide to put a PbC battery on the other side of that case, instead of a Li-ion battery sometime in the near future.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • NIH (not invented here) is an exceedingly strong force in business because nobody wants to peel off a healthy slice of their revenue for a mere component supplier, particularly when that supplier is willing to sell to their competitors too.

     

    I think that's e biggest reason Exide tried a power play in 2009. The deal with Axion gave them enough of a hook in the technology to keep other potential buyers away if Axion failed. If the plan had worked you can bet your last dollar that Exide would be pounding the table on their radical lead-carbon hybrid.

     

    One of the funnest parts of speaking at Batteries 2012 was listening to lithium-ion boys bitching about those greedy bastards at Polypore. Like it not they do what they have to when its the only way to stay competitive.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • I took a couple minutes to listen to the Power Solutions segment of the JCI presentation. If it wasn't said before Alex Molinari is I believe the fourth presenter at about the 2:05 hr mark.

     

    Appears certain that the entire euro OEM market is testing the dual architecture. In a 12/48v structure, they don't believe that a lead acid alternative is viable.

     

    Later, he goes on to discuss the success their AGM line will have, but also discusses the new approach cannibalizing the SLI battery sales.

     

    So if lead acid aka AGM is not good enough for S/S or microhybrid, but SS and micros will be 2/3 of all sales by 2020, what does that "ultimately" mean for their AGM line without a carbon negative electrode?

     

    B/c it appears JCI's proposed alternative is a small lead acid battery with a li-on battery. That would seem to cut out the AGM?

     

    Very big emphasis on JCI being the incumbent and that as long as the technology is evolutionary and not disruptive, JCI will be successful.
    20 Dec 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Stefan. Very interesting, and somewhat different, reaction to JCI's presentation. I'm hopeful I'll have opportunity to listen/watch this weekend.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for your review Stephan.
    Not sure I agree with your summation. I think JCI is stating the obvious. " We have a solution". Doesn't mean there isn't a better solution out there. Doesn't mean anything yet. No talk of temperature issues or fire hazards. Just a practical corporate response. " We have a solution"

     

    I don't happen to think its optimal, but hey, I'm not a battery guy.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist -

     

    That's not exactly what I meant, I do think they have a solution as you and I stated -

     

    "B/c it appears JCI's proposed alternative is a small lead acid battery with a li-on battery."

     

    My question is, where does that leave their AGM battery and all the money they spent on developing it if JCI is going to pivot to this new solution? They wouldn't use that expensive a battery for only the SLI functions, would they?
    20 Dec 2012, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Since BMW has been putting the PbC to the test for many a year now I have to believe that the only issue that really counts is the performance of that battery!

     

    If BMW prefers the PbC over lithium then somebody will be manufacturing the PbC battery. If not JCI then one of the other several bidders will happy to take on the PbC revenue flow.

     

    It is all about press releases at this point for the fun to start.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist

     

    I understand and agree, I think they would cut as much cost out of the SLI battery.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • I agree: I see nothing that indicates a conscious decision to ignore PbC.

     

    I think two things:

     

    -.JIC lost AONE and have to rethink again.
    -.Ignore PbC as negotiation strategy.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Waiting for JCI to acknowledge the PbC will drive us crazy. They continue to whistle past the graveyard--or just focus on their coming AGM profits.

     

    I prefer to be driven crazy waiting for NSC, and the truck APU, and ePower. Automotive? Meh. (with apologies to DRich for blatant stealing of his line)
    19 Dec 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • >D Lane ... Tick-Tock.

     

    Countin' flowers on the wall, that don't bother me at all
    Playin' solitaire 'til dawn, with a deck of fifty-one
    Smokin' cigarettes and watchin' Captain Kangaroo
    Now don't tell me
    I've nothin' to do

     

    http://bit.ly/SSYaAz
    19 Dec 2012, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane, Rosewater first.

     

    Automotive. It affords the scale and carries a huge gold star. It drives you to perform well. But you'll need band aids by the case.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • ah, yes. Almost forgot about Rosewater. Another major bright spot!
    19 Dec 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Exactly, Carlos.

     

    Why would JCI ever acknowledge technology they do not own? They never will because it can only increase the price they would be required to pay to partner with that technology.

     

    D
    19 Dec 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Even Johnny respected Ed. Not a mention of Mr. Green Jeans. Oh, Or was that later? Big Smile.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • SA just published my first SA Pro article titled "The True Genius of Tesla." It won't hit the main pages till tomorrow but the comments should be a ton of fun.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ykz0fw
    19 Dec 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • I have no problem if tesla devotees want to pay SA some hundred bucks per month in order to have first chance to troll in the comment section.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • We'll certainly find out how truly faithful the faithful are.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Or the paid & the paupers
    19 Dec 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • That too. As you might expect, my conclusions are not anywhere near as pleasant as my title.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • congrats, John. Looking forward to reading it.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • How does SA Pro work with your archive going forward?
    19 Dec 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Pro Articles are apparently limited to subscribers for 24 hours and then published on the main pages where they become part of my permanent archive. SA has a higher level called Alpha Rich articles that are embargoed for three days, released to the main pages for 30 days and then embargoed forever, but articles that make the Alpha Rich cut are few and far between.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • 20 minute break and then JCI's Power Solutions presentation begins.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Oops, Sorry. Electronics and interiors. Power Solutions after that.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Great, now I have to choose between listening to the JCI webcast or taking cat litter to the dump. Rachel says the dump wins.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • John, Good choice!
    19 Dec 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Once again you are proving your wisdom! Listen to your honey.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • These damned efficient Swiss have the best recycling program I've ever seen. They bill me $0.50 per kg for everything that goes into my RFID chipped trash can at the house and they have free recycling about a mile down the road for compostable waste, plastic, glass, metals and paper. It's just irritating enough that you have to recycle as a matter of principle.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • I'm all for it. Thank god not everyone is as wasteful as we the people.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • As much as I whine and kvetch, the system works very well.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John, Sounds like a great opportunity for some inventive young person. That is if the regs allow it.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • OK, Here we go.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • JP, I predict you will wonder what you were thinking when you decided to leave Switzerland.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • I know exactly why I'm leaving and it's an economic choice rather than a lifestyle choice. My wife and her partner are launching a new company in the social media space that has the most compelling business model I've ever seen. By the time they get their platform to the launch stage I expect to see the bidding begin with eight zeros if not nine. Some sacrifices are worth making.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • >Some sacrifices are worth making.

     

    Well said. My best wishes to your wife and yourself on this family venture.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • The great part is that this one is Rachel's deal and except for advice on corporate finance matters, I'll be relegated to "best husband in a supporting role." I'm truly looking forward to being inadvertently addressed as Mr. Fefer.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • You'll be the arm candy, John. The trophy husband. Enjoy.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • All my life women have loved me for my mind instead of my body. Eye candy will be nice for a change.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • And I thought you had litter-bearers on staff there at the castle... but Noooo...you're one thrifty devil appears to be the sordid truth! ;)
    19 Dec 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Truth be told it was no more expensive living here than it was in North Houston, at least until the Swiss Franc got really strong. It was more appealing address and a gentler lifestyle.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • John, They have 150 USD turkeys in N. Houston. Man, If I knew that I would have packed turkeys instead of personal effects during those years I was spending half of my time between the US/Mexico and flying through Houston.

     

    Psst, want a turkey?
    19 Dec 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • UBSS prowling for a big add again: 100K @ $0.276 bid.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Don't look now but MXWL has jumped about 15% in 24 hours.
    I'm glad I'm diversified in energy storage.

     

    For those who are long ZBB, its good to remember that it has come far from when it was available for .18 on November 21.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Has also come pretty far from when it was available at 75c a year ago! ;) I do like the recent action in ZBB and the insider buying earlier this year.
    19 Dec 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like ZBB will double yesterday's volume as it rises today.
    19 Dec 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • "The market for advanced lead-acid batteries will expand by a compounded annual 20% a year over the next eight years, Pike Research forecasts, to hit $20 billion in sales by 2020. But there are actually several competing advanced lead-acid battery technologies and its not clear at this point which technology—enhanced flooded batteries or absorbed glass mat batteries or fast-charging lead-acid batteries to name three technologies—will capture what share of the market or when. Analysts will be looking to Johnson Controls to explain its technology bets" Jim Jubak, regarding JCI
    http://bit.ly/V6RgWX
    19 Dec 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Well that was a very enjoyable presentation.

     

    Big discussion around the opportunity hole in JCI's slide for how the power train market is becoming segmented. They emphasized how much the battery business has changed in it's requiring numerous solutions going forward as a result of this market segmentation. A few bullet points:

     

    - JCI's view, in working with their customers, a dual battery system as a requirement to fill the hole that resides in their product range offering.

     

    -JCI's view is that the transitional architecture will be dual voltage which will be 12 VDC and something less than 60 VDC which they used 48VDC as a discussion voltage. 60 VDC is the limit for maintaining what is considered a low voltage system for safety.

     

    - JCI view's a 3 year payback as being the requirement for payback requirements in mass market technology roll outs. There will still be specialty markets like PHEV's and EV's but these will remain niche markets past 2020.

     

    - JCI also emphasized that legislation requirements also needed to be balanced in with their payback requirements.

     

    - JCI currently see's lead acid as satisfying the 12VDC and lithium ion satisfying the 48 VDC requirements in their dual voltage vehicle. Solutions in this area are still being worked and cost seems still to be an issue. Mass is an important consideration.

     

    - AGM sales offset flooded sales but the margins are higher and holding on AGM. Hybrids will come under pressure from the advanced micro hybrid technology which they see delivering 15% improvements in efficiency. So the advanced SS market will offset hybrid sales.

     

    Sorry I'm sure I didn't capture it all. I think this would be well worth everyone's time to review if they offer after the fact opportunities to listen in. It's really exciting, given where we;re sitting and what Axion has to offer, to hear where JCI feels the market is going.

     

    Q and A starting now.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Many thanks for a great summary Iindelco. The guy at the dump said to give you his best.
    19 Dec 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • In the Q&A session in part of a response JCI indicated that given future vehicle requirements advanced flooded batteries would not be a solution.

     

    They pretty much indicated Exide is their only competitor in AGM but there are a couple small competitors in Europe. Said Enersys has a solution but they are expensive, don't really service OEM and the aftermarket plus they don't seem to be interested. Capital intensity will make further entry difficult and most of the players like the Chinese don't have the technology. (For you Exide followers)
    19 Dec 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • John, VERY funny!!!!

     

    Again. If you can listen to a replay it's great info. and very exciting. You'd also pick up on some points that would be accretive. The Power Solutions section is a great short listen for anyone interest in the area like we Axionista's.

     

    Almost as nice as a one mile ride with dirty diapers! ;)
    19 Dec 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • I'll make a point of it.
    19 Dec 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for sharing iindelco!
    19 Dec 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • "They pretty much indicated Exide is their only competitor in AGM but there are a couple small competitors in Europe. Said Enersys has a solution but they are expensive, don't really service OEM and the aftermarket plus they don't seem to be interested. Capital intensity will make further entry difficult"

     

    In other words if Axion wants to play they will have to play on JCI-Exide terms or stick to small potatoes.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Being big and being small, both have their advantages and disadvantages. Irrespective of how big Axion is the real thing to watch is the size of the lever (PbC technology and how it fits the various markets) they hold in their hand and in fact that and the hands that are holding it (TG and team).

     

    GM was the biggest and everyone kissed their a^%......until they didn't. Turns out that in the end they had a huge lever held by morons.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: I can't help but think a corollary may be in play, since the likes of BMW has already fired a shot across the bow, per John's reporting of BMW's investigation of Li-ion as an alternative to LAB.

     

    If JCI-Exide want to play they will have to play on BMW's (et al) terms or stick to mashed potatoes. China will be big Li-ion supplier and JCI/Exide will be competing on cost basis if they don't offer something like the PbC.

     

    That competition will have them under margin pressures. A better move for them *might* be to get into technology that is both wanted by the auto-makers (apparently) and whose technology is not available from China.

     

    Just thinking out loud ...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • JCI and Exide are the big dogs, but that just means that smaller high-quality players are continually looking for ways to steal the best customers with better products. Germany's Banner and Moll both make Fine AGM batteries for automakers and would like nothing better than to take premium AGM customers from Varta and Exide.
    19 Dec 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone know which OEM's get AGM batteries from Exide?
    19 Dec 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • "Anyone know which OEM's get AGM batteries from Exide?"

     

    Don't know about other auto OEM's and models but Toyota used an Exide battery in its' 2011 Camry.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv. Be careful. It depends on how the contracts are arranged. T builds Camry's not only in their two KY plants but also in Japan and perhaps other markets at this time. The 2 generations of Camry I supplied in KY were supported both by GM/ITT Automotive and by Denso for the same component. Split contract.

     

    In the case of LAB's generally the suppliers with the closer plants have the upper hand on cost. It's not the only part of the decision making process for the OEM's but logistics costs are a big part of the equation.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • "Germany's Banner and Moll both make Fine AGM batteries for automakers and would like nothing better than to take premium AGM customers from Varta and Exide. "

     

    I was thinking similarly, JP. Between a couple of small European AGM OEM's, Axion's own in-house AGM capacity, and an Asian AGM OEM or two, JCI might find it is crawling pretty far out on a shaky limb.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • The OEMs are usually pretty fickle with their battery contracts and tend to buy from everyone because that gives them the power to say "I understand that you don't want to make this concession, but XYZ will be more than happy to take the additional business if you can't help us out here."
    19 Dec 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, ii. Interesting info re- split contracts and locational supply issues.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • ...Germany's Banner and Moll both make Fine AGM batteries for automakers and would like nothing better than to take premium AGM customers from Varta and Exide.

     

    BMW could favor one of two (Banner/Moll are Germany) in case BMW decide to go with Lead Acid 3.0 PbC Tech.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • John, knowing that about the OEMs makes me very happy as its different and better long term thinking than the airlines. Every item on a plane must be certified by the FAA and the respective groups in Japan and Europe if that plane is going to fly in that airspace. Because the time and testing required by these orgs take a long time and cost a lot of money many parts are either only made by the OEM (Boeing, Airbus) or made by one aftermarket company who basically have duopoly pricing. When a new enterant finally gets certification the others match their price as they have a large enough order book to take the hit and believe they have deeper pockets than the other guys. They are usually right as by matching on price the airlines will stick the company they are used to dealing with knowing that it will damage them in the long term. They hope that someone else will feed the upstart the business but it probably won't be them. Its why the titanium bolts that you can buy at the hardware store for a couple dollars cost up to $30 each and a coffee maker cost $5k for an airplane.

     

    Its also why I have owned TDG for a few years now. A great business that just steadily climbs.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Now that aero has been mentioned, what are they doing for battery storage on planes?
    19 Dec 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Size and weight are mission critical in aviation, so they're typically using NiMH although Boeing is apparently testing some of the safer lithium-ion chemistries like LiFePO4 and titanates. From what I understand, aviation testing makes automaker testing look like a stroll in the park on a spring day.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • John has it nailed. I doubt that we'll ever see the PbC on commerical aircraft. In airports on tugs, belt loaders, pushbacks - absolutely.

     

    Hell, my first finance project out of college was to calculate the NPV of removing all the ashtrays in the armrests of the planes.

     

    Costs - Cost of metal plates and screws & labor
    Benefits - lower cleaning time per plane & fuel savings due to reduced weight between ashtray and the metal plate. It had a payback of around 1 year almost all due to fuel savings because of the lesser weight. I was blown away at how important the weight was. Fuel was much cheaper then as well.
    19 Dec 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • The regional airline that I fly for here in Alaska uses lead acid or Nicad, each with its advantages and disadvantages. A high percentage of our flights are short, (20 min) Sometimes the batteries do not have enough power to restart on batteries alone which would result in a hot start (bad) So we carry portable Li-ion batteries to some of the remote locations that do not have GPU's, resulting in a weight penalty. It would be interesting to see if the Pbc could fill a niche here. However, just asking the FAA about it would generate a ridiculous amount of paperwork and a rip or two in the space time continuum.

     

    I have been lurking for a while(shadow axionista)
    19 Dec 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome out of the shadows and thanks for adding your two bits worth – it used to be two cents worth but with inflation and all ....
    19 Dec 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco:

     

    The bit about 48VDC for the hotel load is interesting. There isn't really any reason to go that high in voltage for SS hotel systems unless your solution is restricted to small form factor, series stacked cells. Then you MUST go to 48V to keep down the peak Amp load on the smaller cells.

     

    That is: 48V x 10A is the same power as 12V x 40A.

     

    A standard Li-ion cell will not deliver 40A for long. Hence the higher voltage. Or so I deduce.

     

    To me that means their approach will be to stack high production volume, commercial Li-ion cells in a box as part of their offering. Either with or without an LA, AGM in the box. It should work. But it's not going to be cheap keeping all of those cells balanced. It could be a problem requiring a mass of support electronics.

     

    It also requires reworking all of the auto systems to 48V NOW. Or someone, somewhere adds a relatively expensive 48V to 12V DC to DC converter.

     

    I don't like it as a "next 2-3 year" solution. I don't think the auto makers will either.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome, B19. Interesting comment. Thanks!
    19 Dec 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, A few automakers have launched 42 VDC vehicles in the past and it has been an aspiration for the industry for decades. There is motivation given the opportunities to reduce the size/mass of conductors and electromechanical devices. However, as you suggest, there are difficulties as well such as switching, EMI, insulation/isolation. Not to mention all the equipment in the supply base that becomes obsolete. Not easy to do in a low margin business.

     

    I think it's coming this time. You can start with a dual bus and move things to the higher voltage side as it makes sense.

     

    PS, I just saw a report of a new lower cost converter. I'll see if I can find it again as you might be aware of it and/or can probably assess the value better than I.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • SIHB, Yes, I recalled correctly. Toyota had sold a passenger vehicle only in Japan fittingly called the Crown Royal Saloon. (Must have been at least a few bottles of that which pushed the decision point to a go program!)

     

    http://bit.ly/R7Id7T
    20 Dec 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Through 11:59 ... mid-day looking decent. Need to see if the usual suspects on the ask side get impatient later in the day, as is common. TEJS, ATDF and (he's BACK!) EGRO. UBSS 100K bid @ $0.276 still there and NITE and TEJS have been jumping ahead of each other - currentl showing standard 2.5K bids @ $0.2761 and $0.2762 respectively.

     

    # Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 450, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 160500, AvTrSz: 6173
    Min. Pr: 0.2750, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2788
    # Buys, Shares: 13 108750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2795
    # Sells, Shares: 12 49750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2771
    # Unkn, Shares: 38 2000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2780
    Buy:Sell 2.19:1

     

    Note that our "bottom" of $0.27-$0.28 is still holding reasonably well even after the high-volume selling pressure of Monday. Since then volume has been reducing, as would be expected.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: ATDF's $0.28 86K ask just taken out. Buy:sell now 3.97:1 VWAP $0.2792.
    19 Dec 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • "ATDF's $0.28 86K ask just taken out."

     

    You're welcome
    19 Dec 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Through 12;15, the action has been sufficient to begin turning all my experimental inflection point calculations upwards. If this holds, and continues, it has been a reliable indicator of a move up. It would be the completion of the precursor set up I mentioned for them a day or two back.

     

    Experimental, experimental, ...
    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • If it helps you HTL, I got 99,307 of a 100K order bid at .28
    19 Dec 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thx I.D. I saw the $0.276 100K on UBSS move to $0.28.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • The dude surprises!
    19 Dec 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Balls! I might have missed my opp for .28c.... you snooze, you lose.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • lets break 32 cents before you feel a missed opportunity. i added 10k block here, but thanks to ??? i think 28-29 cents is gtg through friday.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • >Occam's_Razor ... Don't worry. Barring some miracle, Axion hasn't seen it lows yet so don't get in a big hurry.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah OR. That would suck to have to pay up that extra .0025 USD! LOL
    19 Dec 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/12Azhuj
    19 Dec 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ok... I guess .0025 is O.K.... just added at .2825.... even though I suspect a another dump at .28 by our friends at SS.
    19 Dec 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu, Touche.

     

    All in good fun, Of course. :)
    19 Dec 2012, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting: 58000 bid @ .2820 against 4000 offered @ .2825.

     

    Could be MM sandbagging to fill a larger (unseen) order.
    19 Dec 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • O.R. That UBSS bid is a continuation of what's been there all morning, but bumped up a bit. It's been taken out a piece at a time as the late-day weakness comes in, as usual.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like somebody bought it ...

     

    Invenergy and Xtreme Power Announce Joint Energy Storage Project For PJM Frequency Regulation Market

     

    http://prn.to/VQuCi3

     

    "Xtreme Power's 1.5 MW Regulation Power Management™ (RPM) is a versatile, scalable asset which will ultimately utilize long-life lithium-titanate battery technology and an AGC signal to harness full four-quadrant power in less than one second. Such instantaneous energy delivery will enable Invenergy to help balance supply and demand in the PJM market
    PR Newswire"

     

    ======================...

     

    Not sure what to make of the word "ultimately" ???
    19 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Confirmation that Xtreme's lead-based solution is toast since the Hawaii fire?
    Nevertheless, this company appears nimble. How did they twist to lithium titanate so quickly?
    And they have an FR customer that we wanted!
    19 Dec 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • I had a conversation some time back from a guy from Austin who said that Xtreme Power was using a lithium-ion battery, as opposed to a lead-variant. Since I was never able to find confirmation, it didn't strike me as a proper topic of speculation. Now that they're suddenly hawking lithium without so much as missing a step it's enough to make me go hmmm.

     

    I wish I could remember who the conversation was with ...
    19 Dec 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Xtreme must be doing something right. With all the problems they have had I'm a little surprised by this. But fter all, a 1.5 MW battery array isn't very large. Hopefully, the PowerCube data can start convincing some companies to take a look at that configuration also.
    Sometimes it just takes the first order to start the ball rolling.
    19 Dec 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like the Invenergy decided to use Xtreme Power's set-up but chose to use li-titanate for the batteries. Apparently Xtreme Power can adjust their system to whatever battery the buyer wants. Seems like a wise decision after Hawaii.
    19 Dec 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Doesn't Xtreme have some political backers or pull?
    19 Dec 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Corporate backers, so yes they have some political pull.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • I think WTB is right, the word "ultimately" is telling us something important.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • I keep looking other accuracy performance scores and even sent a request to A123, but haven't been able to find one.

     

    This article says "and an AGC signal to harness full four-quadrant power in less than one second."

     

    That is comparable to PbC, but not sure if it is as good ...
    19 Dec 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for looking Stefan.

     

    Xtreme Power’s Regulation Power Management (RPM) 2000 is a fast-acting power management and energy storage system designed specifically to participate in the frequency regulation market with a response time up to 50 times faster than conventional generation resources.
    http://bit.ly/STwd9t
    19 Dec 2012, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • >D Lane ... That whole statement hangs on the definition of "conventional generation resources". Go to page 141 of the link below and discover 50x faster is mighty slow compared to a PowerCube's 500 mSec

     

    http://bit.ly/UGphuq
    19 Dec 2012, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • I'm inclined to think that speed isn't going to be a major advantage when manufacturers of BESS are competing with each other because I'm not sure that the differences between a second and a quarter second matter all that much to users. Fast response is very important when you're comparing a BESS to a spinning turbine in the context of pay for performance pricing, but I think the only factor that really matters in stationary is "fast enough for the user's needs with the lowest TCO."
    20 Dec 2012, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Prospectus Supplement No. 3
    (To Post Effective Amendment No. 2. to Prospectus dated May 10, 2012)

     

    Filed Pursuant to Rule 424(b)(3)
    Registration No. 333-164352

     

    Axion Power International, Inc.
    45,757,572 Shares of Common Stock

     

    This prospectus supplement relates to the offer and sale from time to time of up to 45,757,572 shares of common stock of Axion Power International, Inc., a Delaware corporation, by the selling stockholders named in the post effective amendment no. 2 to prospectus dated May 10, 2012 as amended by Prospectus Supplement Nos. 1 and 2 thereto (the “Prospectus”). The Prospectus relates to the offer and sale of up to 45,757,572 shares of common stock registered on Registration Statement No. 333-164352. You should read this prospectus supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, and this prospectus supplement is qualified in its entirety by reference to the Prospectus, except to the extent that the information contained in this prospectus supplement supersedes or supplements the information contained in the Prospectus.

     

    The information contained herein supplements the information in the Prospectus related to the Financial Statements and Supplementary Data by including our audited financial statements and related notes for the three months ended September 30, 2012. This prospectus supplement also contains certain other information included in our report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2012.

     

    Our report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2012, reflects a total of 113,260,006 shares of our common stock issued and outstanding as of November 9, 2012.

     

    Investing in our common stock is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. See “Risk Factors” beginning on page 2 of the Prospectus.

     

    Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any state securities commission has approved or disapproved of these securities or determined if the Prospectus or this prospectus supplement is truthful or complete. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.

     

    The date of this prospectus is December 19, 2012.
    19 Dec 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • For everyone else. The amount of shares mentioned above is the max not the number that will actually be sold. The same filing last year used the same # of shares.

     

    Last year - the 424(b)(3) was filed on 11/30 and the deal closed on 1/31 and used a 40 day weighted average. Assuming the same schedule that puts on pace to close the deal in mid-Feb. Assuming we hold $.30/share and the fund goes for $10M again for this period and another 10% discount we would be selling 37M shares.

     

    As shareholders we need to get this price up or we will see our % of ownership decrease by 1/3 as it will go from 112M to something like 150M shares. Ugh.
    19 Dec 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • If you remember correctly, they sold at a 20% discount to the mkt
    I think it was the average price, or at least or max .35 when it had been steady at .40 and climbing.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • "Last year - the 424(b)(3) was filed on 11/30 and the deal closed on 1/31 and used a 40 day weighted average."

     

    Could be the starting date of another 40 day trading period like last year or could signal prep for placement with "a strategic investor". Or, could be a variety of other things. What steps might be taken, say, in preparation of a public offering following of warrants that might be exercised in wake of sales contracts for PowerCubes, additional battery sales for locomotives or trucks, or some other large (for Axion) PbC related revenue generator?
    19 Dec 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • YIKES! Way ahead of my "thinking" schedule.

     

    "Ugh," is right.

     

    Surprised Axion didn't let one of the "hot irons" develop and go to press before the cap raise.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • I think if I read that filing correctly, AXPW has a cash burn of about $2 M /mo. They show about $4 M cash now. I don't think TG gambles with running that low. Especially with washington still posturing on the cliff.

     

    My bet is he sells almost all of it at .25. Trying to net $10 M....to the same guys as last year. If this is true, pray for a long lock up period.
    or
    pray for a strategic investor or partner that is buying for the best interest of the company and existing shareholders.
    $10 Mill. is not alot of money...there are many would jump on it if there is money to be made.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • The 424(b)(3) is a quarterly update to the resale registration statement Axion filed in the spring of 2010 for the shares it sold in December 2009.

     

    We go through this every quarter. The original filing was on Form S-1 and one of Axion's obligations is to file quarterly updates to include information from the last Form 10-Q until all those shares have been sold.

     

    The filing has absolutely nothing to do with the next financing round.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • I think the burn is closer to 2M a quarter. Thankfully Axion does produce some revenues (over 10M this year expected) to help out with costs. I wouldn't expect TG to grab more than 8-10M in the next offering. Some even think that the 4Q numbers will come in much higher than years past.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • On October 17, 2012, the Board of Directors amended the Axion Power International, Inc. independent directors stock option plan to increase the number of shares of common stock available thereunder from 500,000 shares to 1,000,000 shares.
    19 Dec 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Xtreme's news made me wonder what East Penn/Ecoult is up to lately ...

     

    They presented at the

     

    2012 DOE Energy Storage Program Peer Review and Update Meeting

     

    and there are quite a few interesting links there:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/WpHUV1

     

    East Penn's presentation (about a project we've noted in the past):

     

    http://1.usa.gov/ZQxna5

     

    10:30 a.m.: ARRA Grid-Scale Energy Storage Demonstration for Ancillary Services Using Ultrabattery, John Wood, Ecoult

     

    See also: http://bit.ly/Ky9hGx

     

    Their other (November) news:

     

    Ecoult awarded largest battery-based renewable energy storage project in Australia

     

    http://bit.ly/ZQxnqn

     

    and

     

    http://bit.ly/WpHUVd
    19 Dec 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like Axion is getting ready for a stock offering. They just released an amended prospectus via email. If memory serves me, they usually have done this to get their ducks in order before another offering. IMHO

     

    http://bit.ly/ZjJSvy
    19 Dec 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • the basis of it is posted above ....2 posts up. 47 million shares.
    Funny, I just posted this morning that I was surprised he didn't do it before Jan.1...because of the fiscal cliff .

     

    We will see tomorrow how bad we get hit, and of course next is who gets it and at what price......now we know why they been selling it at .30
    19 Dec 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • The amendment relates to the resale registration Axion filed in the spring of 2010 for the resale of shares sold in the 2009 offering.

     

    It has nothing to do with the next financing.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Helloooooo from Copan, Honduras, fellow Axionistas.

     

    Tomorrow at 8PM EST (December 20) I will be doing a live podcast from Copan, Honduras with David Katzmire on The Cycles of Change Radio Program.

     

    Questions on this live show are welcomed and invited. Call in number is: (347) 884-9593

     

    LInk to the show is:

     

    "The Cycles of Change" Radio Program
    with K. David Katzmire
    Thursdays at 8pm Eastern

     

    Live Shows & Archive at:

     

    BlogTalkRadio.com/cycles

     

    Call In: (347) 884-9593

     

    Direct link to this show:

     

    http://bit.ly/URSUJK

     

    Topics of discussion will be both about Mayan History, the calendar celebration and an overview of all the current events and local celebrations.
    19 Dec 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • New hyperlink to the live podcast. Sorry, the other one had expired!

     

    http://bit.ly/YmmA6Y

     

    19 Dec 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • First question: What did the Mayans say about the role of Lead Carbon in the next cycle.
    Second: Is there a glyph for it.

     

    My duck is always in a row.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • I just received this funny quote:

     

    Calm down! If the Mayans were good at predicting the future, there would still be Mayans!
    19 Dec 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • LMAO regarding the comments about today's SEC filing.
    19 Dec 2012, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • 48---I was about ready to start making lowball offers for some stock, but then my own ethical stick slapped me. Oh well, I'll keep sleeping well. ;^) Signing off now...
    19 Dec 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I Why? Because we all knew it was coming and we really have no idea what the agreements and price might be. 80P ( Why is my tongue always on the left side of my face. I vote for a new letter in the English language. Never mind, I'm 2D and looking into the screen. Sorry, Killing time.)
    19 Dec 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • MI, why are u LMAO ?

     

    If they sell 47.5 mill shares @ .25 = $11.875 mill less commission would net AXPW about $10 mill.

     

    The scary way....then u can laugh is :
    47.5 m shares x .20 = $9.5 mill less commission = about $8 mill to AXPW

     

    It can always be up to that....but there has to be good news & even then it will be dampened by this weight coming soon.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • If they are beginning the volume weighing period, I hope that is why some PRs have been delayed...
    19 Dec 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Today's filing is to keep the 2009 private placement shares registered, as required by the terms of that deal. Same reason for the 10/10/2012 and 5/15/2012 filings, and the same misreaction by some here. One reason why I love investing in penny stocks. With all the dumb money, it's easier to get great returns.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • You're right about the nature of the filing Mr Investor, but there's no dumb money in this forum, although many are not experienced with documents like the supplement.

     

    People are naturally edgy about the next financing and the prospectus supplement is a scary document.

     

    Investors who have never bought stock in a private offering and then sold shares pursuant to registration rights have no reason to draw the connection between the 45 million shares referred to in the supplement and the 45 million shares sold in December 2009.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • A little further explanation is in order.

     

    The prospectus supplement relates to SEC Registration No. 333-164352. If you go to the Edgar website and click on that registration number it will bring up a screen that only relates to filings for that registration statement.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/ZQVzcr

     

    The original registration statement for "45,757,572 Shares of Common Stock" was filed on January 15, 2010 and went effective on April 19, 2010. Everything since the effective date has been updates to keep the prospectus current.

     

    THE FILING HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE NEXT OFFERING.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Unless they can read AND remember. We go through the same explanation every time a supplement is filed.

     

    I consider such things fundamental to one's decision about whether an investment in a highly speculative stock is suitable for their knowledge level and circumstances. Hey, it's one's own money, but sometimes the comments here can be downright scary to a former Investment Advisor like myself. Thank goodness I no longer have the obligation to do anything about it.

     

    Enough about that. John, do you think the upcoming fundraising, if it involves the issuance of stock, will be a private placement?
    19 Dec 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, John. I'm off to a dinner/lecture...with ice on my animal spirits!
    19 Dec 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor> I'm not sure how the upcoming fundraising will be structured. As I understand the rules the S-3 registration statement can't be used for an offering by Axion unless the market value of the float is over $75 million, and we're not even close to that number.

     

    That means the only two options are a deal that's registered on the front end and would require an S-1 filing before the transaction or some sort of private placement coupled with a resale registration statement.

     

    While Form S-3 can't be used for a direct offering by the company, a resale registration could be filed on Form S-3 as long as (a) the resale registration isn't filed until after the one-year anniversary of the last raise; and (b) the deal doesn't involve more than 35% of the shares currently outstanding.

     

    From a regulatory and logistical perspective, life would be way easier for both Axion and the future investors if the stock price was in the $.75 range because that would allow a short form filing on Form S-3. While a lot of investors are familiar with the drill of a private placement followed by a resale registration statement, it's still more cumbersome than a sale of stock in a registered transaction.

     

    The one bright aspect if they go the private placement route is that we'll be able to track resales through the FINRA data, which we can't do for shares that were sold in a registered transaction.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, John.

     

    Regarding a >= 75 cent price, from your keyboard to the ATDF seller's eyes.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I,
    "I consider such things fundamental to one's decision about whether an investment in a highly speculative stock is suitable for their knowledge level and circumstances. Hey, it's one's own money, but sometimes the comments here can be downright scary to a former Investment Advisor like myself. Thank goodness I no longer have the obligation to do anything about it."

     

    As one of those who came to the wrong conclusion, I'm sorry if we scare you with our comments. But you're right. I have a full time job, and I'm not skilled in such documents, so when I get an email like this from Axion at the end of the work day, with no other explanation, I sometimes jump to the wrong conclusion. So it's probably best if I just stop posting on here so I don't show my ignorance any more.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • except this is filed regularly, no?
    19 Dec 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • we all got some holes in our brains. there are enough whole brains on the forum when you mush 'em together. buckle up, cramped quarters and frazzled nerves all around.
    19 Dec 2012, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Lab, I appreciated your post since I didn't get the Axion email. Getting the info out there is a service in itself. This Board has enough fact checkers thus we all can afford to be wrong now and again. =)

     

    Please don't hesitate to alert us in the future.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • Lab> you're way too valuable a contributor to sideline yourself. Guys like me and Mr Investor who've spent years working in the field know this stuff inside out, but if everybody knew it inside out then we wouldn't be able to charge big fees to clients.

     

    For the last couple years Axion's stockholders have been under constant bombardment and sniper fire, so its no surprise at all when somebody jumps at the sound of a backfiring engine. The purpose of this forum is to have the more experienced members act as the voice of calm reason when the sound is simply a backfire, as opposed to an incoming round.
    20 Dec 2012, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech: Don't let this sour you, just remember that this site also quickly brought the real information up front to inform the new members of the group. This has happened before, and even for the senior initiates, there was once a first time...
    20 Dec 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Labtech: "... so I don't show my ignorance any more".

     

    Please, don't leave me alone. Like you, most of us have obligations and lack of background and limited brain sells to accomplish the uptake of all the *new* concepts, data points, trends, ...

     

    The fact that those with loads of background, experience, more brain cells, ... may look down their noses at us (occasionally) shouldn't dissuade us from the learning process - and admitting and sharing our ignorance is an important part of this IMO. These "bouts of ignorance" elicit answers and discussions that help embed all the new stuff in our conciousness. They also sometimes suggest looking at things in a way that may not have been considered.

     

    Remember that some folks in some industries come from a place where we are "dumb money". It can be hard to shake old habits and attitudes.

     

    There's a reason that "rote learning" has demonstrated a lot of strength over many newer learning concepts over the decades - it has to do with how the individual brains are wired and are "associative processors".

     

    Personally, I never worry about showing my ignorance (that should be obvious I guess) as I consider it important that ego not get in the way of my learning process, which seems to be never-ending.

     

    Just use that little "ignore button" each of us has when appropriate.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • "Today's filing is to keep the 2009 private placement shares registered, as required by the terms of that deal."

     

    And the shares behind warrants issued in the 2009 private placement?
    19 Dec 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • The registration statement did not include any warrant shares. It relates solely to 45,757,572 shares of common stock sold in the 2009 private placement.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Ymv26e

     

    Based on the Form 8-K filing, it looks like the selling agents received 719,665 fully paid stock instead of warrants, which is why there were no warrant shares to register.
    19 Dec 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, JP. The warrants I was thinking of are addressed in statement but in context of a lock up period.

     

    "In connection with the Agreement, The Quercus Trust entered into a Lock Up Agreement with regard to all of its shares of Axion Common Stock and Axion warrants for a period of one year, ...."
    19 Dec 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • The Quercus warrants were sold in a private placement transaction. That means the warrant shares can't be registered for resale until they're exercised. Since Quercus is not sitting on piles of cash right now, the only way it's warrants are going to get exercised is in some sort of triangular transaction where Quercus agrees to sell the warrant shares to somebody who has the money to pay the exercise price and Axion registers the resale of the shares. In that kind of deal the buyer would pay some multiple of the warrant exercise price for the shares, the warrant exercise price would be paid to Axion and Quercus would get a net check for the difference.

     

    Since the exercise price of all the Quercus warrants is $0.75, I don't think we need to worry about them for a while.

     

    I was sleepless earlier but it's way past my bedtime. I'm outta here.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • If memory serves, half of the 10 million warrants issued to QT expire in January.
    19 Dec 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, I'll have to go back and look but I also recall a 2013 expire date as well. Some time ago I considered them to be overhang. No mas.
    19 Dec 2012, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • "This article says 'and an AGC signal to harness full four-quadrant power in less than one second.'

     

    That is comparable to PbC, but not sure if it is as good ... "

     

    IINM the PbC + inverter response time is on the order of 1/4 second (from receipt of signal). PbC alone is faster still.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • "I also recall a 2013 expire date as well."

     

    ii, I'm thinking there are three expiration dates with the first in January and the last on June 30.
    19 Dec 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv -

     

    IIRC, you are correct on the PbC but that still makes both less than a second and as result, we can't make a direct comparison,
    19 Dec 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • The warrant expiration dates for the Quercus transaction are:

     

    2,857,143 – January 13, 2013
    2,380,952 – April 7, 2013
    4,761,905 – June 29, 2013
    20 Dec 2012, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • So you're saying Quercus still has a chance to make its money back after all =)

     

    Maybe a $2 share price nect Spring/Summer will net them 5 to10M
    20 Dec 2012, 03:00 AM Reply Like
  • Quercus invested $18 million in Axion. The exercise price of their 10 million warrants is $0.75 per share. To break even, a trade would have to be effected at a price that gets the warrant exercise price to Axion and leaves $18 million for Q.

     

    The following summarizes the price points the stock would have to hit for Quercus to break even.

     

    January 13 – an effective transaction price of $2.55 per share would get a $7.5 million warrant exercise price to Axion and net $18 million back to Q.

     

    April 7 – an effective transaction price of $3.27 per share would get a $5.4 million warrant exercise price to Axion and net $18 million back to Q.

     

    June 29 – an effective transaction price of $4.53 per share would get a $3.6 million warrant exercise price to Axion and net $18 million back to Q.

     

    While Quercus still has a chance to get whole, it seems less likely today than it did six months ago. As much as I've hated the pressure Quercus put on the market over the last two years, I hate the idea that they'll lose money even more. To my way of thinking investors who take that kind of risk should profit handsomely instead of suffering.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • How much do you estimate their proceeds to be on the equity that they sold over the past few years? Did they at least get half their 18M investment back? If so we can cut the above numbers by 50%. Unlikely, yes, but maybe we see a $1.65 pps come Spring. =)
    20 Dec 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • >Bazooka: http://bit.ly/IWuQxN
    20 Dec 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, JP. Had the three steps right but the grey matter short-circuited on warrant distribution over time. For some reason memory had the expirations front weighted whereas the schedule shows them mostly back weighted in time.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • JOhn - so someone made an investment that didn't work out timewise. Sell, even for a loss; drive the price down. Then, reinvest even larger amounts of new monies with new agreements on options and warrants (in a company that looks even more promising than earlier) and win big enough this time on the new monies to overshadow the mistakes of the past. A new day.....
    20 Dec 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • The problem with Quercus was that their cash needs exceeded their cash availability by a wide margin. That's why they sold their Axion stock in the first place. I've heard nothing that gives me reason to believe the salad days have returned for Quercus, and it will take a big pile of lettuce to exercise those warrants.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • I can't recall all the exact entities, but a looksee at the insider trades or major holders along with a click on their name provides all the other investments also held - some of those had plenty of things to sell as alternatives. Which of those holdings were current holdings or history is/was a question if holdings as of a particular date was itself dated.

     

    Anyhow, best I recall, several major holders were of this ilk.
    20 Dec 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • "a looksee at the insider trades or major holders along with a click on their name provides all the other investments also held - some of those had plenty of things to sell as alternatives."

     

    JP has written articles, and commented extensively on APCs, about those major holders. His articles are easy to find. Nothing new here.
    20 Dec 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Abbreviated today because I have a lot (more than usual?) to say and didn't want to burden uninterested parties here. Details will be in my instablog in the morning sometime.

     

    12/19/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 57, MinTrSz: 450, MaxTrSz: 45107, Vol 461037, AvTrSz: 8088
    Min. Pr: 0.2750, Max Pr: 0.2899, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2807
    # Buys, Shares: 29 278787,VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2809
    # Sells, Shares: 26 177750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2805
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 4500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2806
    Buy:Sell 1.57:1 (60.5% “buys”), DlyShts 79930 (17.34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.97%

     

    HardToLove
    19 Dec 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • This is so weird. I was gone most of the day and I see the conversation on the APC has sent me back in time to the same conversation of 3 months ago, six months ago, nine months ago etc., and JP had to wake up several times in the middle of the Swiss night to address the concerns over and over and over again as the same misinterpretation of an SEC filing gets repeated ad nauseum but then when I step back into my living room i get zapped back to what i believe is my anniversary day Dec. 19 2012...(I sure hope that is right or else I am in trouble)
    19 Dec 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mine was Dec. 17... darn near forgot it....
    19 Dec 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • Jak,

     

    There maybe are some who are more than knee deep in Axion shares and likely don't digest things well well whenever we head toward the mid .20s (let alone get sec docs in the email).

     

    The known placement has capped near term upside when instead we should be focused on ePower and NS deliveries.

     

    Same old story of good company and bad stock; I do think it great for those who are just know jumping on this train though.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Buy when others are fearful
    20 Dec 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • From iindelco's post - (I know he is probably thinking the same thing)

     

    "During the current crisis, BMW is similarly increasing spending on research and development – by 15 percent this year, to about 3 billion euros ($3.8 billion) – as it pursues one of the most radical initiatives by a major carmaker anywhere."

     

    http://bit.ly/SPMgaz

     

    3 billion euros this year ... what would a small strategic investment in Axion mean to BMW. Makes me question my premise.
    19 Dec 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • "3 billion euros this year ... what would a small strategic investment in Axion mean to BMW. Makes me question my premise."

     

    Stefan, Actually no I don't feel that way. There is a reason for that and I witnessed a bunch of it first hand.

     

    Industries like automotive once were very vertically integrated. They wanted to control everything from the ore to the shipping door. This worked in the past but eventually became a weakness through mechanisms like pesky competitors that wouldn't follow the same rules. Why? Things like giving unions too much power. Making mangers lazy and fat because they were the only game in town. Destroying innovation because new and improved meant that all your existing capital would be obsolete.

     

    No. Modern manufacturers want to control a level of vehicle manufacturing that builds on their brand image and building systems to do this by finding and nurturing the best (cost/benefit ratio) technology for their brand. They do this via numerous methods but too much internal control is out of the question. There is far more innovation when you give multiple players targets and let them hash it out. Creative destruction.

     

    BMW might invest directly in some things if they feel it will not be done without their assistance. In the case of Axion they gain advantage via some level of nurturing them and others. Don't pick a winner. Let em reach for the stars and verify constantly that one and preferably multiple technologies will be there to meet your needs in the future.
    20 Dec 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • ii - thanks for the response and pardon me for speaking for you. However, with respect to this conversation, I cannot escape the significance of this article. Given all my research and double verification, it just bothers me.

     

    http://bit.ly/VbDhuC
    20 Dec 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, I was thinking of that business relationship/investment as I wrote my response. That's why I included the statement that follows and was going to make mention of it but, well, just didn't. "BMW might invest directly in some things if they feel it will not be done without their assistance."

     

    I think this technology falls squarely in the "take the reigns or it will not happen category".

     

    IMO if BMW really wants Axion PbC all they have to do is give them a nod for specific model and the battery industry will put up the capital to take the ball across the finish line for automotive. It's not a stretch goal like carbon fiber at 4 times the cost of steel.

     

    PS If I recall correctly Daimler also threw some money in the pot on this as well.

     

    Edit
    PPS I have no problem with you bringing up the topic as it's a very important one. I'm pretty sure It's been discussed before.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • ii - yes, Daimler and maybe one or two others. The article that I linked was written this year and only includes BMW. The first article I read in the international herald or ny times was about a year and half ago and I believe included others.

     

    Its just aggravating when as you said, all they need to do is give Axion a nod to solidify their standing.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • "Its just aggravating when as you said, all they need to do is give Axion a nod to solidify their standing."

     

    Why yes it is, but I can assure you it's not the norm in the industry. Companies like to keep thinks under wraps as long as they can to squeeze every last bit of advantage they can out of their moves. In the case of Axion, I feel they would not be able to do it. They are going to have to show their cards to get any level of capacity in place for automotive. They are not going to be able to maintain secrecy. Axion is just too small.

     

    I feel the most likely time for this to happen, should it happen, is after their fleet testing. But it really depends on the timing of BMW's future business needs and the plan of how Axion and a potential partner would role out the added capacity. I'm sure it's been discussed at great length given where Axion is today in BMW's test cycle.

     

    Your and my frustration is not a consideration! :( lol
    20 Dec 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • "Your and my frustration is not a consideration! :(" ... agreed.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco, stefan, great insight and dialog...continued thanks to both of you for all you've broughten ...
    20 Dec 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Never fear! At 06:11:01am EST, 05:11:01am CST, 11:11:01 UTC tomorrow end-of-world uncertainty will no longer be of concern and businesses the world over will turn to prepping for the future, bringing the new age of PbC energy storage!
    20 Dec 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think it's the BMW money as much as the time involved. Seems like they would have kicked us to the curb long ago if they weren't interested in dating.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • As someone who several quarters ago made the same mistake about that quarterly filing, I can relate to Labtech and the others. Of course, all of us should read all the comments that have been posted before commenting so we don't keep rehashing the same point within a single concentrator.

     

    That said, Mr. I, I hope you'd respect the contributions of Labtech and the rest of these folks. We all have different skills and contribute different ingredients to these concentrators which is in large part what has made them so compelling.

     

    Yes, JP is our leader and the glue, but it is now clearly much more than that. I feel that us little guys/amateurs can now, for the first time compete against institutional investors in the market. Just another example of the information revolution that is the internet.

     

    To put it another way, that's the beauty of the concentrators. We all don't have to understand the minutia of securities regulations. All we need is one such person who people trust and who is willing to share (JP). More than that is to some degree redundant. I'd much rather have a young person who knows how to search the web, someone whose spouse works for an electric utility, or a truck driver who can each contribute different pieces to the puzzle than a homogenous group of financial experts. Even if they can't otherwise contribute, they can be stockholders and they can evangelize the stock and the product. JP understands this, but I'll bet that most financial professionals don't.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Count me as one who understands very little about the the minutia of securities regulations, or for that matter, about a lot of other technical matters discussed on this board. So I try to focus on the bigger picture, and from what I can gather, nothing has materially changed from yesterday to today. Would that be a correct assessment?

     

    My own understanding is the downside risk for Axion centers primarily around their financing needs. It's not a question of whether they can secure necessary funds or not, but whether they can do so in a way that is not overly detrimental. I would rather have that scenario than not knowing whether they can secure the financing at all.

     

    Because of the financing uncertainty, the stock price has been depressed to account for a worst case scenario, which appears to be that a stock offering will be for a larger number of shares than expected, and/or will go for a lower price than expected. Which is why so many have been able to buy shares at bargain basement prices of under .30.

     

    A potential upside is the possibility of financing playing out much better than expected. But no matter how it plays out, it seems any negative aspects will almost certainly be more than offset by a number of positive developments likely to happen in 2013. — Am I missing anything?
    20 Dec 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • First.....let me say that I did forget that the form me & LabTech posted was about the '09 shares....but with that said:

     

    It is somewhat how the new capital raise is going to look...This is the end of December. Probably in 4-6 weeks we get the news and it closes soon after that. To raise $10 M it is going to take another 35-45 million shares unless something unseen is on the horizon. Who buys them and how it is structured could be the key.

     

    Wayne, it is not financing alone that has depressed the price...it is the lack of sales. Anyway you cut it, 2012 has been a zero year. No doubt progress is being made, but it's like an inchworm traveling around the globe. Everything in the works is relatively new and untested in the real world app. People and companies have to see it work for a while...the 999, trucks, PC, so 2013 could very well be backend loaded. Auto may come, may not, but could realistically be a 2014 deal, I would think at some point we have to get news so they have time to build out production capacity.

     

    I do believe that TG & the board is attempting to avoid last years financing scenario, There could be more to the line where they state they are "looking for someone that is in alignment with AXPW goals and best interest"......I would expect Quercus warrants to expire worthless & in the next 18 months most of that 200 million shares will be issued.
    20 Dec 2012, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • "like an inchworm travelling around the globe..." well, yeah, but I'd say one that is nearly about to board a jet plane... though there's no denying it's been one hell of a slow crawl across the tarmac. Still, look, the stairs are almost in reach...
    20 Dec 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • While Axion is very open about its financing needs, sometimes I think Tom's fundamental honesty does as much harm as good in the short term. Tom started openly talking about another offering in July or August and it's been an obsession with Axionistas ever since; an obsession that's muted our response to some amazing progress.

     

    In a different company that will for the moment remain nameless, the CEO told stockholders "we were cash flow positive last week" while a first tier investment bank was finalizing a research report that predicts a year-end working capital balance of $2.9 million and a year-end equity balance of $120.5 million.

     

    That's right boys and girls, the mystery company will have less working capital at year-end than Axion. How it managed to do a $221 million raise in October and blow through the money in three months will be beyond the comprehension of almost everybody, but that's the way the numbers break down.

     

    Which would you rather have?

     

    Do you want a CEO who tells you the truth in advance or one who only tells you the good stuff?
    20 Dec 2012, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • "sometimes I think Tom's fundamental honesty does as much harm as good in the short term"

     

    OTOH, balance that, as you obviously have done, against discovering that he's less than honest and/or open about such.

     

    I know all of us will take the current incarnation over the alternative without a second thought. We just then have to manage our responses to what's presented - a never-ending task because we are h00m0n.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, I am impressed with your self-awareness, perhaps even dare I say "wisdom"!
    20 Dec 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Which would I rather have? Have to admit that is a tough one to answer. This time of year I really like the idea of believing in Santa Claus, Peace on Earth & Good Will toward All Mankind. But more than that I would really like more for Christmas than being handed my own two front teeth by Mister Truth while my mind reels with visions of sugar plums dancing in my head brought on by the concussion & comforted by the fact I saw it coming.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John - and the answer is: THAT DEPENDS.........on many things. Regardless of our values.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Oh John
    About that big oil producing state you used to live in.

     

    <California could edge out Texas in oil production
    Posted on December 19, 2012 at 12:34 pm by Loren Steffy in Oil

     

    It may be the biggest insult since salsa made in New York City. Texas, long the nation’s oil capital, could get upstaged by California.

     

    That’s right, California. Enron’s prey-ground. Cap-and-trade fantasyland. Home of fossil-fuel-hating, electric-car-driving, green-dreamers.
    Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management sold 15 leases for about 18,000 acres in California’s Monterey Shale, which stretches 200 miles south from San Francisco. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates the shale formation could hold 15.4 billion barrels of oil, which would be double the combined reserves of the Bakken formation in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford shale of South Texas, Bloomberg News reports.
    Los Angeles-based Occidental Petroleum snapped up most of the leases sold at the auction, and California lawmakers have drafted new rules to deal with a boom in hydraulic fracturing.
    So far, Texas still has the edge in terms of jobs. A recent report by IHS Global found almost half of the country’s nearly 1.3 million energy industry jobs were in Texas, and predicts the number will continue to rise. Oil and natural gas activity in Texas is expected to generate $22 billion in federal, state and local revenue this year.
    Those numbers aren’t lost on California, a state battered by budget shortfalls, underfunded public pensions and an unemployment rate of more than 10 percent, the nation’s highest.
    Increased production from California will add to U.S. oil output that is already growing a record, hitting its highest level in 15 years, according to a report by the U.S. Department of Energy . Domestic production will top 6.4 million barrels a day this year, a 14 percent increase from last year and the biggest annual gain since the first commercial well was drilled in western Pennsylvania in 1859.
    All of which is good for the country and good for the oil industry, as long as they don’t start calling it California Tea.>

     

    http://bit.ly/T95BAc
    LOL
    20 Dec 2012, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • If you ever wanted proof that God has a sense of humor ...

     

    I've been reading bits and blurbs about the potential of the Monterrey shale for a couple years now.

     

    I already find it rich beyond reckoning that the natural gas industry has driven US CO2 emissions down to 1992 levels as coal has been pushed aside for a cleaner and cheaper alternative.

     

    It would be uber-funny to have oil save California and turn Silicon Valley into Houston West.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:29 AM Reply Like
  • I've lived in both California and Texas. California has a significant out-of-site-out-of-mind and not-in-my-backyard culture. They want the energy, and don't really care about the environment, unless it is THEIR environment.

     

    Texas has much less of NIMBY and thinks more in these terms: If you're going to get the energy from somewhere, I might as well get the money.

     

    TX mostly likes fracking, but CA seems profoundly uncomfortable with something that challenges the "Green Energy at all costs" mantra.

     

    On the methane vs Coal "issue", environmentalists are not happy with gas, even though the US is at 1992 CO2 emissions. It's not their solution. It's the same emotions that John's electric car alalysis bring up. Eventually methane use and highly efficient ICE cars will run into limitations. We're not near the limits. Some people are focused on the technology, not the results.

     

    There is a rule of thumb in software development that the first 80% of a project takes 20% of the time, and more typically the last 10% takes 90% of the time. If cutting carbon emission is the goal, people should prefer activities that reduce carbon. I see plenty of pictures of solar arrays and wind generators all over the web as icons of Green Energy. Not many on energy storage, even though it appears is some places that incremental investment in storage will save more energy than additional wind turbines.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • "...unless it is THEIR environment."

     

    Skip to 1:50 min.

     

    http://bit.ly/MG3M9E
    20 Dec 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Classic Iindelco, an absolute classic.
    20 Dec 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: loved it.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • @ iindelco

     

    Jeez, I sure do miss George Carlin. May he rest in peace. Unfortunately, I haven't come across another matching his talent and intellect. He was a true gem.
    20 Dec 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone:

     

    I do not worry if JCI is going with Litium and EXIDE with Maxwell. Everything (In the world of batteries) is changing. Now the car manufacturer and others (ePower, Residencial HUB, etc.) asks to the battery manufacturer: We need a battery with certain specifications. You can supply?

     

    Practically the manufacturer of cars (Like BMW and NSC is doing with PbC) in the future also will design the battery that engage each of its car models and configuration.

     

    That's my thought.-Carlos
    20 Dec 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Continuo:

     

    The car maker also may ask: How much cost in Litium, AGM with Maxwell or AGM with PbC Tech?
    20 Dec 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • Carlos, The car makers will always focus on overall cost. But it's a complex equation

     

    When you look at everything that goes into an automobile and the environment they need to perform in they are really reasonable in price. Perhaps when you move up from base models not so much. They try to sell you the extra toys for a reason!
    20 Dec 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting article on tsla at marketwatch.....
    20 Dec 2012, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • Link to Tesla article

     

    http://on.mktw.net/WrrCuM
    20 Dec 2012, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Market watch has no idea just how ugly things really are for Tesla. I explain the grisly details in a story that will hit the main pages today at 9:22 a.m.

     

    The problem with the Market Watch article is that it didn't take into account the $221 million Tesla raised in early October, which should have made its financial condition far more palatable. Unfortunately, it looks like Tesla has already blown through all that new money and will finish the year with less working capital than Axion.
    20 Dec 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • John

     

    Re your 'TSLA Genius article'...another trend appears to continue.
    The usual TSLA loyalists have not shown up yet in the usual number and vitriol.
    A couple of new or returning/renamed TROLLS, but not your "regulars".
    Maybe this article really hit a nerve.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • The ones I like best are the guys who claim they want Tesla to use their deposit money to change the world and don't care if they don't get their car.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • "Re your 'TSLA Genius article'"

     

    ooops...they probably had to read it 3x...over 400 comments!
    21 Dec 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • I believe this is the article John mentioned:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Dec 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Or this one
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Dec 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • My latest article, the one that was selected for SA Pro yesterday, has just been published on the main pages.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Dec 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • I got the article wrong. I had searched Tesla and John Petersen and didn't notice the author until I started reading comments.
    20 Dec 2012, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Nice article John,
    It is amazing that the same accounting issues can appear from a major investment house in two separate reports. At some point in time this manufacturing house of cards will have to either
    1) fall down, or
    2) sell 20,000 cars in a hurry
    20 Dec 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • The scary part is the reservation contract provision. If I handled client funds in that manner the first thing that would happen is I'd lose my license. Then they'd fit me for an orange jumpsuit.
    20 Dec 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Rachel just told me about a new movie that tells the tale of an international assassin who converts to Christianity. The working title is Bourne Again.
    20 Dec 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Thanks for the laugh.
    20 Dec 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • I hope Tesla stays alive long enough that I can get a four wheel drive Model X! They already have several thousand reservations for that one.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • The Model X is not a four wheel drive vehicle.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • ID, I hope you get a Model X and have loads of good times and fond memories with your family and friends. But please, do not apply for any Federal Tax credits on new vehicles. I and the rest of the 99% cannot afford to subsidize your luxury purchases at this time. Thank you for your compassion.

     

    TimZ
    P.S. I promise when AXPW finally returns huge gains to me I will not take any tax credits for my purchase of Model Y.

     

    20 Dec 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Umm....yes it is

     

    Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
    Model X is offered with optional Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive. The second motor enables more than all-weather, all-road capabilities: it increases torque by 50%. When outfitted with AWD, Model X Performance accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in less than 5 seconds, outperforming the fastest SUVs and many sports cars.
    20 Dec 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Actually, no its not.

     

    AWD systems resemble a permanent 4WD system in some respects, but are not equal when it comes to off-pavement activity, for instance. Most of the new AWD systems being introduced are "automatic" AWD systems, and have little ability to route power to all 4 tires except for very unusual and very brief episodes.

     

    I have one of the better AWD examples in my ML500, and though it is good for many things, I do not confuse it with the permanent 4WD system which I have experienced in various off-road and construction environments.

     

    If the Tesla comes with an automatic AWD system, its much inferior to the more capable permanent 4WD's, particularly when it comes to a 4-Low capability. AWD's that spend virtually all of their time in 2WD mode are not 4Wd's.
    20 Dec 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack--Boy, you folks here like to nitpick and argue! According to your definition, my Ford truck is not 4WD(I will remove the 4WD stickers Ford put on the side). It spends 90% of its time in 2WD. I don't want to shift my Tesla X into 4-low and pull stumps. I have a diesel pickup for that. But when the snow flies, i want to have the peace of mind that my wife and kids are travelling along with a vehicle capable of using all 4 wheels for traction. My son drives a Subaru with that ability. Whatever you want to call it, it has the ability to drive 4 wheels at once when needed. The Tesla X sounds even better at determining when all 4 wheels should provide traction:

     

    "Unlike gas engine cars, which can shift torque from front to back, Tesla can reduce or increase torque at each set of wheels individually. That means the car's computer can tell the front motor to apply, for example, 25 percent torque, while still giving 100 percent torque to the rear wheels, based on the driving conditions."
    20 Dec 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • All, In light of the conversation.

     

    4WD vs AWD: What's The Diff?

     

    http://bit.ly/UTDpRr
    20 Dec 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • "...you folks here like to nitpick and argue."

     

    That is one of the reasons why this site could be the greatest free learning tool you'll ever stumble across. If you stick around, (and want to learn) you'll see that Mr. Petersen's articles based on his real-life experiences have created a home for wide-ranging, and some admittedly odd, sources of deep knowledge and relentless research. So when a fact is presented by you, me, Elon Musk or even the author himself, this group will question it, from balance sheets to fashion statements. No free passes. However, this behavior is also the reason why most AXPW holders sleep well at night.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • ID: OK, just tell us "4WD" whenever you mean "AWD". We'll make allowances for you. There are a lot worse problems involving conflated definitions around here to wade through, like confusing a car purchase with an equity investment decision.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Should one conclude that .275 is the new bottom? (up 10% from the old bottom of .25)
    20 Dec 2012, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Tim:

     

    Sorry--I will use any tax credits I can. I am not a 1%'er, but I invest wisely. I used all the possible credits for my 10kW solar photovoltaic system I installed last year. I plan another 10kW system, hopefully using the PbC batteries, and I will again get federal tax credits, as well as state rebates. Is it ok to take the credit if Axion gets some sales out of it? :)
    20 Dec 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • ID, I used to have that attitude.
    I was planning to install PV and Solar Hot Water and the tax credits were a large part of my calculations of pay back time frames. In fact, the tax credits were/are a large part of sales promotions of everything solar.
    A few years ago I took all the required courses and passed a certification exam to become a Solar Site Assessor here in Wisconsin, where we have about the same solar gains as Germany. I dropped my plans for PV and site assessing and got a degree in accounting instead. I still like the economics of solar hot water but that's on the back burner. Without the "gimmes" the solar equipment is still beyond my price range of affordability and the pay back time is way too long.
    In Wisconsin there is always a big worry about extending tax credits and rebates for solar installs. All the long term jobs promised did not develop...when Federal grant money dries up the market dries up.
    I participate in We Energies Green progam, which means I pay a 25% premium for my electricity...this subsidizes the cost of over 200 wind turbines We Enegy has installed in Wisconsin, so I don't have to put up my own system.
    I realize now that tax credits to me are paid out of someone else's wallet, including my kids and someday my grandkids.
    I believe the Federal Gov. should be involved in R&D that can benefit all the people but tax credits should be very carefully designed to benefit all the people as well, not just a few.
    I also do not participate in the lottery. It is abhorrent for our government to run a numbers racket. I have never taken the lottery tax credit which would save me about $175.00 per year on my property taxes.
    I don't care to profit at all from sales of Axion products that involve tax credits. If that is the case I will increase my charitable giving someway to offset any tax beneficial gains.
    I really don't want a Tesla Model anything, either. What I really want for Christmas is a 4WD pickup, maybe a Ford F-150, with a small diesel engine, electric boost powered by PbC batteries and a 30 gallon veggie oil tank in the bed.
    JMO. Everyone is free to act on their own best interests and usually do, including myself but I hope enough of us learn the empathy thing...we're all in this together.
    A Blessed Christmas to All!

     

    TimZ
    20 Dec 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Replay: Again UBSS in with ~100K (now 92K) bid @$0.2795. Usual suspects on the ask jostling for "me first Mommy!" rights: ATDF (of course), TEJS, NITE and the Citadel (CDEL). They are showing mixes of standard blocks and non-standard with asks from $0.2846 (ATDF made the move to front of the line), TEJS ($0.2867 - got "one downed" by ATDF), NITE $0.2849 (got "one downed by both the former) and CDEL $0.29.

     

    The action has been less than frenetic, but it's early yet and I have no doubt one of the market-makers will decide it's necessary to justify their presence in these arenas.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » 200 comments go fast. Here is the next APC

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Dec 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • I've been thinking about Alex Molinaroli's presentation yesterday and it strikes me as fascinating that he focused on 15% fuel savings and a three-year payback as the breakpoint for a conservation technology.

     

    On a CAFE compliant new car 15% fuel savings works out to about 60 gallons a year, or about 180 gallons over three years. At $3.50 a gallon, they seem to be expecting a system cost in the $630 range. At $4 a gallon its more like $720.

     

    Being a firm believer in the law of economic gravity, I have to believe that the dual battery PbC system would be competitive even with a $500 price tag, which assumes no economies of scale and no experience curve effects.

     

    I never thought I'd see the day when JCI and Exide both waved the white flag on EFBs and AGMs, but I'm beginning to think that day has arrived.
    20 Dec 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • John: "... I never thought I'd see the day when JCI and Exide both waved the white flag".

     

    All that's left is site selection for negotiating the terms of surrender.

     

    Think the Gov would lend Axion a carrier? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • John - when it comes to energy conservation ventures, the simple paybacks for Reduce (ie., shut it off; throw the switch) is near infinity and there are no calculations if no objections; hence, no discussion, just do it.

     

    For the next category(s), Reuse, instant implementation occurs with less than 1 year paybacks; Recover may stretch from 1 -3 years depending on complexity and involvement with other systems, v/s standalone. Sometimes, the desire to make an improvement (hence investment) is just because it's the right thing to do and ancillary benefits are not quantifiable.

     

    Then comes Replace; usually the most capital intensive and justification may be based more on strategic directions than simple paybacks.

     

    And then, we have the kinds of things like this Alex M fellow presents in applying such logic to someone's PRODUCT??

     

    Duh! The payback decision goes out the window. The answer is: stay ahead of the competition, or lose.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Wouldn't it be wonderful if JCI and Exide et al became a demand ally instead of a hurdle? Axion's approach has been a "pull" one, that is, to pursue end-customer demand first. Boy, if the guys in the middle start pulling, too, that would be fantastic. Heck, even if they just stop blocking.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Recheck the price of solar PV nowadays Tim. I think I can do my next install for less than $1.50/watt. With credits, it comes to $.60/watt. A 10kW system here makes 13,000 kWh/year. After 10 years, I have paid $.046/kWh. I can sell RECs that will halve that. Solar energy benefits all. You don't have to be at all rich to put up panels. A 5kW system would be $3,000 after credits. It's not something for the wealthy only. We can all do it. We all need to do it if we want our kids to have any future at all.

     

    I spoke with a resort operator in Micronesia the other day. Electricity there is ~$.50/kWh, all from diesel generators. He wants to put in enough panels to cover his 135,000 kWh annual use. Even without subsidies, his payback is incredibly fast. There are hundreds of thousands just like him in the world. Storage is the big issue for most. That's how I came upon Axion.....
    20 Dec 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Last time I was involved with solar in WI and watche dprices was admittedly 4 or 5 years ago. The rough estimate was 10.00 per watt installed. That's $10,000 for a 1 Kw system of 5 or 6 panels and BOS. 1 Kw was a common size here in WI.
    A 2 Kw system was considered quite large and enough for residential use.
    Each solar panel cost about $800.00 and output about 180 watts.

     

    Is a 10 Kw system still roughly about 50 panels today, 200 watts each? That's a lot of area used on a roof install or backyard system. Most trackers on poles would safely hold 10 or 12 panels at most. Do you have 5 trackers or a huge roof?
    And you want to double your output to 20 Kw?
    Are you planning on being an big energy producer selling back to the utility company?
    You state a 5 kW system would cost about $3,000. Does that number include labor or is it just for the components?
    Would a 2 kW system be about $1500?
    I only pay roughly ten cents per kh through We Energies. Thanks to our staunch state Democratic leadership in the past our utilities were never de-regulated so our rates remain reasonable, which is another reason PV growth has slowed.

     

    As an aside, Richard Abdoo was the previous CEO of We Energies. His annual compensation, with options and perks, was north of $1,000,000. He retired from WE Energies and joined the Board of ZBB in Menomonee Falls, a suburb of Milwaukee. Richard Abdoo has invested in quite a lot of ZBB stock as an insider. I always figured he would be instrumental in placing tons of ZBB batteries with WE Energies to store energy from over 200 wind turbines that have been installed in WI. I'm keeping a close watch on that and the share price.
    Incidentally, when I did not pursue my own PV system I joined a "green program" through WE Energies which means I pay a 25% premium rate for my electric to support the production of green electrons from the wind turbines.

     

    If prices have come down as low as you state for PV I will have to evaluate the economics again. I wasn't willing to fork over 10 grand but for less than 2 grand I could get interested.

     

    For grid-tied systems WE Energies was offering a plan where your electric meter would run backwards when you fed the grid from your PV. It was possible to sell more energy to the utility than you used which resulted in a financial gain from enegy production, and many folks are doing that in WI.

     

    21 Dec 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Make me like the best available technology guys.

     

    iQ Power AG : and Austrian Battery Manufacturer Banner Batterien GmbH Sign a Technology Licensing Agreement

     

    "The main interest of Banner GmbH in the iQ Power technology is an improvement for batteries in micro-hybrid "start-stopâ" vehicles. According to industry sources, by 2015 70% of all passenger cars produced will be outfitted with this fuel-saving technology. Banner already produces AGM (absorbed glass mat) and EFB (enhanced flooded battery) batteries for these types of vehicles."

     

    http://bit.ly/VcLLBH

     

    Edit: It's the first news article on the page. Sorry it posted this way.
    20 Dec 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • "improved performance" at little additional cost leaves one to draw inferences based on known IQ Power AG expertise which is apparently battery electrolyte(s). Assuming the exercise pertains to lead acid batteries the electrolyte compound is likely some variant of SO4.

     

    Is there much potential for blends of SO4 and other elements to reduce AGM sulfation rates, or raise DCA?
    20 Dec 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, I've seen some articles concerning additives to the electrolyte to improve performance in the areas of grid corrosion and to reduce negative plate sulfation. These are not order of magnitude improvements but incremental steps.

     

    This article is in the area of electrolyte stratification. Some companies even have ports on the battery and they agitate the electrolyte to prevent this in industrial apps.

     

    Here's a patent on the agitation idea.

     

    http://bit.ly/XRcarb
    20 Dec 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • "additives to the electrolyte to improve performance in the areas of grid corrosion and to reduce negative plate sulfation. These are not order of magnitude improvements but incremental steps."

     

    Thanks, ii.
    20 Dec 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • "additives to the electrolyte to improve performance in the areas of grid corrosion and to reduce negative plate sulfation. These are not order of magnitude improvements but incremental steps."

     

    WWW: Warm Water Wipes.
    20 Dec 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
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