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  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    The number of followers at 190 is now higher than the number of concentrator's. Interesting.
    TimZ
    20 Dec 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    OK OK, I'll take that pity second.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    OMG!
    I never thought I could be first!
    I only have 42 comments to my credit. I'm like the tortoise in the race.
    Trying to get over to 19,000 comments to increase my credibility.
    20 Dec 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations timzinski. It's always fun when the new kid on the block wins.
    20 Dec 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Thank you John for the encouragement.
    This gives me renewed optimism.
    Should I cast out for more shares at .28 or wait?
    It's Thursday already and no update from ePower on the PbC test.
    What to do...what to do...
    20 Dec 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Don't do anything that will keep you awake at night worrying.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    why not.....be 4th????
    20 Dec 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    I'm a bit curious why the daily volume is relatively constant, barring events or new articles posted. It seems to me that Axion's volume should have a lot more variable were it simply random retailers deciding to buy, because AXPW is really off the radar. Yet we do stay in the 300-400k range lately on a non-event day, suggesting a more steady buy/sell program?
    20 Dec 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: I'm relatively new, but my best guess is investor/trader uncertainty causes folks to get tentative. In traditional TA, the effects seen are termed "consolidation". Another effect of this is price compression.

     

    We are seeing both of these effects right now and I have a certainty that this is entirely normal.

     

    BTW, a small correction: volume is changing and changing as a technical analyst would expect - it is declining since the re-trace to $0.27-$0.28 was completed (IMO).

     

    In K, including today so far: 1162, 644, 461 and 115.

     

    I expect today to end somewhere in the low-to-mid 200K range. My 25-day average is ~333.345K through yesterday.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. My estimate might be low - we have a larger order from UBSS hovering again today and anything could cause an unexpected break up in volume if an order that size (which is likely masking more bids at slightly lower prices) goes off and opens some floodgates of sentiment like "I better get in - it's running away from me". I don't expect this for now. There's also the "Why haggle for 1/100th of a penny or so" thoughts that could kick in at any time if folks believe that the bottom-feeding days are behind us.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry HTL, but the volume just spiked...
    20 Dec 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    I saw "from my keyboard to the P.S. scenario" about as soon as I hit "Reply".

     

    Actually, it did it while I was typing so I was doomed from the start!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Is the 100K block bidder usually UBSS? If it is they are doing some pretty controlled nibbling.
    20 Dec 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    "trolling" for shares.....76140 to go...and don't read into anything after the hundredth place...I can't go past that while entering orders online i.e .28 only as bid
    20 Dec 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: they have been. But just a few moments ago they got exhausted and CDEL is bidding 76K @ $0.28. So we seem to have some believers in a good risk/reward ratio coming in here.

     

    Maybe today confirms my "consolidation" scenario? Spread so far is a tight $0.0055.

     

    Do the apparent willing sellers at these levels get exhausted first?

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Subsequent to my first reply, UBSS is back again 100K @ $0.28. Combined w/CDEL and, now, ATDF, we have 187K support showing at $0.28.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Seems someone is scaling in a wee bit.
    20 Dec 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    What's pleasing me is that even though through 14:15 the buy:sell is 1:8.03 (had been 1.57:1 prior to that ambush while I was typing my volume expectation), the pps is +1.56% today as the sellers seem determined that they won't wander far from $0.28 (low $0.278 so far).

     

    Buy:sell ratios this extreme seldom hold for the day - probably get down to 1:5 or better, and the bids have been moving slowly up. Right now seeing TEJS bid $0.2803 x 2.5K into a UBSS ask of $0.2825 x 17K.

     

    It's starting to look like my expected consolidation is to be *very* short-term unless there's someone one the sell side waiting in the weeds to ambush us. If we finish up on *rising* volume, that's quite bullish.

     

    I think I'll stick with my call for a rising trading channel beginning - for the moment it's looking like the safest play regardless of other POVs.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    ID, I'm stuck with full penny orders as well but in the end I hope to have my first 10 bagger with AXPW so it won't matter anyway.

     

    A hundred thousand folks in the Midwest wish they had battery backups right now. Rain just turned to snow here in East Troy, WI.
    The flakes are big as golfballs and pounding down fast!
    The weight of this stuff will be snapping branches and knocking out power lines tonight. Madison over 8" already...Fond du Lac over 10". First measruable snow we've had in 279 days...a new record. Which means a lot of dry old tree branches just waiting to end it all.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Same here Tim. I am sure we will lose power. I sure wish I had 50kWh of backup! Of course, John says I am a crazy troll and nobody in the world has battery backup for their house.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    I.D. : LoL! Poking sticks at dogs through the chain link fence one of your hobbies?! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    You'll notice that I haven't said anything for a couple days. I'm just watching and paying careful attention. Time will tell.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    TENTH !!!
    20 Dec 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations but your better number today is 200. Over 200 comments on your latest article in about six hours. It seems you rang the bell for dinner in front of a bunch of ravenous hyenas.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    It is amazing how few of the commenters have anything to say about the undeniable facts I discussed in the article. It's almost like they figure a long and fragmented comment string will make the issues go away.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... The multi-inchs of nonsense did make me un-check the comments box so I hope I don't miss anything further that is interesting. Which is, I think, the idea of the prattle.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I figure the TDCT is out in force today trying to find reasons why the commingling of funds doesn't matter and the $2.9 million working capital balance is a non-issue.

     

    Axionistas are terrified at the prospect of having $4.8 million of working capital at year end, but I guess working capital is less important if you're an automaker.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    "...but I guess working capital is less important if you're an automaker."

     

    Yeah, It's not a very capital intensive business.

     

    Now parfum manufacturers really gotta have some deep pockets.

     

    If he needs more money he can get em to pay in full a month or two in advance. Changing the world is expensive.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Changing the world is expensive"

     

    Especially if George Carling is right and Mother Nature will win in the end in spite of unlimited supplies of hubris by some.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Mother Nature has a way of letting us know just how much control we really have. We make it more obvious based on our prosperity. Stretching things to the limit with our wonderful inventiveness.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    John, the natural reaction of SA fans is to investigate how to play a TSLA fall. So I looked at the TSLA options today and the puts are WAY more expensive than the calls (and the bid/ask spreads are a bit wide). I'm guessing it's a combo of a lot of investors betting on a big fall and stock longs buying insurance. But I'm no options expert.

     

    The other obvious choice is to short the stock, but not enough potential reward for mwa. And I've never liked the unlimited downside, especially with a stock that has so many radically irrational investors.
    20 Dec 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I've spent much of my career battling short sellers in my client companies and I've always viewed them as the devil incarnate, even though they were often right. Years of defending clients against the shorts has left me constitutionally unable to take a short position.

     

    Short selling, as a practice, strikes me as conscious effort to profit from another man's misery and it just feels wrong to me. I'll be happy to point out the risks of being long a stock, but short selling just isn't part of my DNA.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    John, there are times when shorting a stock makes sense. At least for me. If I hadn't shorted the big banks back in '08 and '09 I wouldn't have had the cash to buy AXPW when I did.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I know shorting makes sense from time to time, particularly when market prices get too far out of whack. I just can't bring myself to do it.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Somewhat OT

     

    Because of easily identifiable obvious threats, I've long believed in a non-centralized electrical grid for any country. But I never before considered an EMP weapon, which strikes me as almost unbelievable:

     

    'HOW-TO' FOR EMP WEAPON STUNNINGLY ACCESSIBLE

     

    http://bit.ly/Tatck7
    .........................

     

    Initial paragaphs in story:

     

    WASHINGTON – The ability of a lone-wolf terrorist to make an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, weapon is made easy by the ready access such an individual has to websites and other open source information on how to construct such a device.

     

    In the hands of a determined individual, a weapon like this could have serious consequences on the nation’s critical infrastructures that rely on electricity and their electronic components in order to function, experts say.

     

    Estimates are that tens of millions of fatalities could occur in the aftermath of a major EMP calamity as food, fuel and power supplies evaporate and the nation is transported instantly back to the 18th century lifestyle without a power grid or anything else electronic.

     

    As the first installment described, while many have focused on the possibility of an EMP disaster developing because of a nuclear explosion or an intense solar storm, there is another great danger: The lone-wolf terrorist.

     

    The attack could come from someone someone who strikes out on his or her own without any group affiliation. Such individuals either may see themselves as supporting the views of various terrorist groups or may have a personal grudge.

     

    Such an individual with a penchant for electronics can pull together components from a Radio Shack or electronic store – even order the components off of selected internet websites – and fashion a radio frequency, or RF, weapon.

     

    As microprocessors become smaller but more sophisticated, they are even more susceptible to an RF pulse. The high power microwave from an RF weapon produces a short, very high power pulse, said to be billions of watts in a nanosecond, or billionths of a second.

     

    This so-called burst of electromagnetic waves in the gigahertz microwave frequency band can melt electrical circuitry and damage integrated circuits causing them to fail. Ironically, this type RF weapon won’t affect humans, although there are some forms that experts say can affect the body’s own electrical system.

     

    The pulse from an RF weapon travels at the speed of light and can be fired without any visible emanation. These weapons can come in ultra-wideband or narrow-band, with the latter acting like a laser emitting a single frequency at very high power. This pulse then is directed at a specific electronic target.

     

    What makes RF weapons so dangerous is their compactness and ability to be powered by hand-carried energy sources. Experts say that their range of intensity is from 200 meters to 1,000 meters, or from some 656 feet to 3,281 feet.
    20 Dec 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Wayne,
    I think your doomsday article is more fitting on tomorrows date :-)
    20 Dec 2012, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I believe it might already be tomorrow the 21st in parts of the globe!
    20 Dec 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Assuming we stick with the Mayan source, the time that counts would be something like that in Copan...
    20 Dec 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    I dunno, from what I've read about Oregon, Wayne may have reason to be a little more concerned.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    "http://bit.ly/Tatck7"

     

    Great 'how to give "crazy's" ideas' exercise.
    20 Dec 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Axion mentioned, Well kinda. The Rodney Dangerfield of the next generation battery suppliers.

     

    Renewable Power, Evolving Smart Grid Boost Energy Storage

     

    http://bit.ly/VSUb1N
    20 Dec 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    An article about lithium titanate difficulties (its the cooling system!) I'm really pulling for this transit project, it makes so much sense. But they could have titled this article "The Elusive Promise of li-ion batteries"

     

    http://bit.ly/VSV0HV
    "The first of the trolleys worked flawlessly during an initial testing period, DeRock said and were more than 11 times less expensive to operate than their diesel-powered counterparts with zero emissions. But they developed cooling-system leaks after a month and had to be decommissioned.

     

    Ebus has since replaced the lithium-titanate batteries with lower-tech but proven nickel cadmium batteries in two of the vehicles, but they can only run for several hours before heading back to headquarters for an overnight charge.

     

    Ebus has redesigned the entire battery cooling system, DeRock says, but may not be able to deliver in time for the mid-March deadline.
    Link is not footing the bill for the delay, DeRock said, and has not fully paid Ebus for the first five trolleys.

     

    Ebus is paying for the cost of the diesel fuel Link has been using to keep its conventional trolleys on the road. The company is also using its own funds to pay an additional staff member.

     

    “This project is potentially a game-changer in the industry, because it even pencils out in places with moderately priced power,” DeRock said. It’s not only green, but it’s a less-expensive way of operating public transit.

     

    To spend the second grant, DeRock says the feds require the first five trolleys to be road tested for about six months.

     

    If Ebus can’t deliver on the lithium-titanate batteries, DeRock said the company would fit the five existing trolleys with iron phosphate batteries, a technology that isn’t as advanced but is capable of keeping the trolleys going all day on an overnight charge."
    20 Dec 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    "But they developed cooling-system leaks after a month and had to be decommissioned."

     

    Sounds like a plumbing issue more than a battery issue. Proterra has been running their E Bus with titanate chemistry and I've not heard about any cooling issues.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, And that's why they validate systems and not batteries. That being said their are inherent risks in having a battery system that needs liquid cooling vs passive heat transfer mechanisms. Keep thermocycling those connections and there is bound to be some level of risk in the possibility of leaks. I'm sure it's not a zero in the design FMEA. Manageable with good designs and processes I'm sure but not going to be zero PPM in the field.

     

    I'm sure those nuclear engineers in Japan, and anywhere for that matter, would love to have a core that would survive via passive heat transfer should things go wrong.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Yes, and I believe both Proterra and Ebus were using batteries from Altairnano.
    22 Dec 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    Indeed, so why is Ebus having issues but Proterra not? Is Ebus charging at higher rates, requiring liquid cooling, but Proterra at a lower rate where air cooling is sufficient? Since the titanates have such low resistance you'd really need to be pushing some heavy current to require liquid cooling.
    23 Dec 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Different markets? Extreme hot or cold so they are adding liquid to manage the extremes like the Volt? Erring toward the side of caution got them in trouble? Different packaging so passive cooling wouldn't work?
    We'll probably never know.
    23 Dec 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist: "I think your doomsday article is more fitting on tomorrows date :-)"

     

    LOL - In case you missed my own take on the Mayan calendar I posted a couple weeks ago:

     

    http://bit.ly/UaXVM7
    20 Dec 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Starting at about 3:55 minutes. Our LAB/lithium ion hybrid pack "quiet" Ovonics/Envia guy is going to bring back the LAB in a big way. He sure has some talkative fans I guess.

     

    http://bit.ly/TaCiNN
    20 Dec 2012, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone:

     

    Now with this:

     

    I want to consider installing a battery (Lead Acid) factory. Please I need links on machinery manufacturers.

     

    Thanks-Carlos
    20 Dec 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    If you'll send me a private message with your e-mail address, I'll send you an archive of the suppliers forum presentations from the ELBC.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: I think if you talked to folks at Axion they would love to help you. I'm just thinking that getting recommended manufacturers from someone that is in the business might give better results.

     

    HrdToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    H.T. Love:

     

    Excelente idea.

     

    I wish Merry Christmas to you and your family-Carlos

     

    Gifts are for next year!!
    20 Dec 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Well, we looked really, really good until 15:19:28 when 25K dumped at $0.28. We would have ended with a nice volume rise at (even) better prices into the close.

     

    Regardless, we ended with a buy:sell of 1:4.50 (1:4.23 before the 25K) and +1.38% price improvement on the day.

     

    That got my old brain a-thinkin': what might explain a price rise on a day when the buy:sell is (apparently) so negative. Last of scared folks getting out? Our "someone's trying to hammer it down" scenario (obviously not effective today if so)? Market-maker out of position and trying to "average in" to stay close to market for a later "buy in"? John always pooh-poohs this, but I believe we've been seeing evidence of MMs being more aggressive than we would like to believe.

     

    We'll never know.

     

    Anyway, not a bad day.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    HTL: .... and the price mysteriously floats back to .28c....
    20 Dec 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: That trade was 15:59, not 15:19.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes I get the impression that there is some company out there that is trying to get the Axion shareholders to lose faith and give up, so that the company can be picked up for next to nothing. Not sure how legal it would be, but spending a few million dollars to mess around with the stock by doing all sorts of buy and sell orders, potentially you can create a scenario where enough of us get fed up and throw in the towel.

     

    First got this idea when I saw Johnson Controls consider spending $250 million for A123. If they could pick up Axion for $250 million (about $2 / share) they would get themselves something really worth having.
    20 Dec 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... So many shares traded this week ... no price movement to speak of ... Sigh! Makes me wonder how big the float was that sold below $0.28. This just can't be profitable trading ... just churn.
    20 Dec 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    DRich: "... just churn".

     

    I've been thinking along those lines wondering if it's just market makers trading among each other trying to garner some volume and fees. I know that's beyond the pale of even my most powerful TFH, but ...

     

    Regardless, if we consider what is "consolidation" in traditional TA parlance, this is the sort of thing we see for varying periods (short, medium and long-term "consolidation"). I do wonder if some (more?) market-makers haven't gotten more aggressive where they accumulate and then distribute the shares they acquire. In this scenario they would hold price low as they accumulate and then move it up to sell to the market.

     

    I've also read stuff that says they need to do this when "good customers" want to accumulate at a good price. In normal stocks it's known that institutional investors do this sort of thing - get their preferred MM to get them a bunch of shares and later when price rises the institutions sell to the market, usually after a prestigious upgrade has been issued.

     

    We'll never know, I'm sure. Operating in (near) total ignorance can be ... "fun", huh? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Or churn from the buyers of the next secondary ...
    20 Dec 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: if so, they need to do a better job? There's a real risk that price may start to move "against" them *if* the holidays don't totally tank everything ...

     

    Speaking of which, the House Reps have adjourned w/o a vote on Plan B and there is no vote scheduled.

     

    So it's now up to the Prez and Dems in the Senate to act on what was previously sent to them by the house or let things slide.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I was just thinking that if the online information on the "cheap, easy EMP weapon" is of the same quality as the "free energy magnetic motors/generators", then all that can happen is another would-be terrorists will go broke.
    20 Dec 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    "... all that can happen is another would-be terrorists will go broke."

     

    Two considerations.
    1. The EMP weapon article appears written by a knowledgeable individual with strong background who suggests some of the online info is good quality.

     

    2. More than would-be terrorists are likely interested such as deep pocketed drug cartels. Some others come to mind as well.
    20 Dec 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    EMP could be a problem, but there isn't a whole lot you can do to prepare for the situation, unless things have changed in the last 40 years. Any circuit in operation at the time would be destroyed, any circuit not in operation that could arc across contacts would also be destroyed. Back to the 19th century in a heart beat, got horse?
    20 Dec 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    stilldazed:

     

    The technology of protecting power lines from transient current spikes has improved drastically with the introduction of the passive peak current limiter using purpose designed superconducting wire (actually a high-tech cable system). The theory behind the design is that a current in a wire produces an associated magnetic field. If that field exceeds a designed threshold value, the SC wire will transition from superconducting to normally resistive. Short term, the resistance limits the current flow. If the over-current situation goes away quickly, the system recovers as if nothing happened, with a small increase in the wire temperature. Longer over-current conditions (not typical from EMP) will cause associated switches to open and remove the current entirely.

     

    This is a completely new solution to a problem that has plagued power transmission systems since their inception. It never has been satisfactorily solved until recently.

     

    AMSC (American Superconductor) makes the wire, with a partner in the transmission eqpt. business. Name escapes me just now. They are either in customer site testing and validation or have gone to fully specified product sales. Not sure which.

     

    If the fedgov REALLY wanted to do something to make the power grid more reliable, the product(s) are there. But safety is a talking point, not a real goal. Witness the bizarre and amazingly costly air travel "security" since 911. That is actually a jobs program, AFAIK.

     

    SiHB
    22 Dec 2012, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    OT: Why I'm high on Wrightspeed and (CPST). This is a configuration that (c/w)ould benefit ePower as well, with proper sizing.

     

    http://bit.ly/12swIvf

     

    Worth a look and, especially, a listen as there are some good numbers trotted out here.

     

    Thanks to CaptWhizBang at InvestorsHub for the link.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the video HTL. I love the set-up. What are the batteries on that truck? Do they have many such trucks on the road now?
    20 Dec 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link. Appeared quite interesting. Unfortunately, my system is not up to continuous play of the audio/video at a steady speed. Wasn't able to follow much audio. Wrightspeed's truck size suggests it, ePower & other truck OEM's have much larger market prospects than class 8 trucks.
    20 Dec 2012, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    D lane: The only thing I have ever seen is just this snippet from Wrightspeed's news page. "... Since cutting the ribbon on their San Jose facility April 7th, 2011, Wrightspeed has proven their powertrain technology in several trucks that are now in customer trials for validation and testing".

     

    http://bit.ly/TaQnw3

     

    Near bottom of first article on the page

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Wrightspeed using A123 nanophosphate and C30 turbine as of 2011:
    http://bit.ly/ZWmQKw
    San Jose, Calif.-based Wrightspeed, which is applying drivetrain knowhow first developed for a battery race car (F&F, February 28) to medium duty plug-in hybrid trucks, is working with Nanophosphate brand lithium ion batteries from A123 Systems.

     

    Wrightspeed sees initial fleet trials of its initial Isuzu NPR-platform vehicle commencing by Christmas.
    Wrightspeed has developed an integrated motor-inverter-transmi... unit for its drive, now tradenamed “The Route.” The company is using its proprietary motor and controller and two-speed gearbox, and C30 Capstone turbine as a generator – diesel or compressed natural gas.
    “We use A123 modules and we build the battery system around them,” says CEO Ian Wright. “We’re not using any clutches at all,” he told F&F.
    “We’re synchronizing using the motor speeds and software” – something he says no one else has successfully achieved. The design is “lighter, cheaper, and more efficient,” Wrightspeed says.
    “We have four fleets under NDAs who all want trial vehicles as soon as they can get them,” Wright says. The list includes two large fleets and two smaller local ones. One of the small ones will likely get the first trial Wrightspeed vehicle. The Route is intended for retrofits.
    20 Dec 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    While Wrightspeed seems to be focussing on medium-duty trucks and ePower is focussed on heavy-duty, I would consider the 2 companies to be competitors.

     

    I consider the PbC to be an advantage for ePower in that it will be less costly to produce relative to the A123 lithium ion batteries used by Wrightspeed.

     

    However, does the Capstone generator give an advantage to Wrightspeed?

     

    Are ePower and Wrightspeed potential partners?

     

    D
    21 Dec 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie: depending on routes, the CPST *might* be an advantage, permitting a smaller BSS (lots of assumptions there) and less weight (smaller BSS and low CPST weight). Diesels are heavy. maintenance is frequent. CPST just the opposite.

     

    It's always about "right sizing" for the intended use.

     

    Without knowing the capacity of the Wrightspeed transmission (class 5-7 vs class 8 needs) I don't know if they are potential partners or competitors. As long as they operate in different markets, I don't see near-term competition among them.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Don't discount the human factor, either. Class 8 operators know diesels and are comfortable with them. Including them as a primary ingredient in what is otherwise a very novel new vehicle might have an advantage due to this.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    12/20/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 102000, Vol 518010, AvTrSz: 10157
    Min. Pr: 0.2780, Max Pr: 0.2825, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2803
    # Buys, Shares: 19 94200, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2812
    # Sells, Shares: 32 423810, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2801
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.50 (18.2% “buys”), DlyShts 15400 (2.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.63%

     

    Well, the daily short sales are determined to keep me perplexed. I'm not going to worry about that very low percentage appearing again though – for now I'll chalk it up to one of the “mysteries of the universe”. We know the possible causes: inter/intra-broker trades dominating (with the same MMs on both sides so frequently, most likely?), shares from prior sell orders flowing in that have already been covered by MM “covering buys”, etc. Since the recent days when we saw these percentages seemed to have little deleterious effect on price, I guess we'll just have to see what develops over time without trying to gather much “intelligence” (if my SWAGs about the cause can be termed such) from the data for now.

     

    Looking first at the traditional TA stuff, we had a very narrow spread in price, suggesting consolidation. But the volume came in rising from yesterday's level of ~461K by 12.4% on a higher close. This is normally seen as bullish and, I think, when coming out of a consolidation, even if a very short one, even more bullish. But I'm going to reserve judgment here as it's really much too soon to exit consolidation for my taste, especially considering today's buy:sell. Somebody is still releasing shares into the market and we have no idea of the source.

     

    Price honored our short-term rising support, which I believe is the start of a rising trading channel. This gives us the origin and three touches without penetration now – suggesting the trend does have some potential for decent support. Since I'm still thinking we are in consolidation though, I'm also holding my piece on this one for now.

     

    A couple of the oscillators I watch stopped their descent (I mentioned yesterday that time might be needed to overcome the nasty effects of the big-volume high-volatility of the 17th) while others continued down, albeit very minimally.

     

    Price stayed just below the 50-day SMA ($0.2845 and falling) today. The fact we didn't pull further away I'll read as a positive in light of the buy:sell ratio today.

     

    I mentioned the MACD yesterday and I'm pleased to report that it seems to be holding flat ATM rather than deteriorating further. But we really are very early in any possible change here, so I reserve judgment again.

     

    On my experimental stuff I first note that the average trade size has now made a very positive and substantial move, recovering from absurdly low sizes. I believe we've now transitioned from the normal “high” range of retail traders and investors. I'm not suggesting institutions are buying us, but I am suggesting that some investors and traders with a higher risk tolerance and cash to support that attitude are now in our sandbox. This is great on the upside and if they are predominately “strong hands”, but can be painful if they are frequent traders. Let us hope for many more of the former than the latter. Regardless, let's welcome them as it is that sort that can prevent price from getting hammered if some party is trying to do that. We need all the help we can get here. They can even confound some (smaller?) market-makers who might want to push price around to increase volume and profits, leaving them (the MMs) in a difficult position if they aren't careful.

     

    Nothing else of my older metrics I want to touch on here. I've got a brief discussion of a theory on why the inflection point calculations behave as they do in my instablog for those with an interest.

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    "I am suggesting that some investors and traders with a higher risk tolerance and cash to support that attitude are now in our sandbox. "

     

    ISTM, we have some new APC contributors reporting fairly large share holdings to lend support to your conclusion from TA.
    20 Dec 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Way OT. Hey we could use a little assist as well. Maybe a little Capstone action!

     

    http://bit.ly/TaOf7r!
    20 Dec 2012, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    If you think there are determined sellers, they are not so aggressive as to fill all the orders I had at $.28.First 100K filled instantly in one block, second 100K filled only ~32K over a long time. Once again, I wouldn't read much into the trading here. An entire day is only around $100K. It's peanuts in the grand scheme. It's 200 shares of AAPL. It's one share of BRK.A
    21 Dec 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    The dude abides. I was curious about those buys because most big buying attempts to disguise their larger orders so it felt like MM trying to pressure buying higher showing the large blocks, but once again the tin foil hat needs to be locked away.

     

    You just showed up here recently and with confidence pretty quickly gulped down several hundred thousand shares...I like how the dude rolls.
    21 Dec 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Let me tell you about a common message board tactic jakurtz. Somebody shows up from out of the blue and begins taking credit for being the buyer of some impressive sized blocks. He's all happy and enthusiastic for a couple weeks and becomes everybody's best friend. Then he gets angry about something or discouraged and starts talking about selling. Then he starts taking credit for being the seller of some impressive sized blocks. Everybody gets exorcised because their BFF lost faith.

     

    It's entirely possible that I have my TFH screwed on too tight, but I've been doing what I do for many years and am always cautious when my spider sense tells me I'm being gamed by a pro.

     

    Ask Delco about the early days of Omy.
    21 Dec 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    JP: Right on the money. I've been doing this sort of thing on the www since AO was charging by the minute...

     

    Folks like us have finely honed troll detectors.
    21 Dec 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    John, You're sure right about that. Had to listen to those OMY theatrics about how he/she bought and then over and over and over about why we should sell when he/she did. What an obvious joke that was. But maybe not so obvious for people dropping by on occasion.
    21 Dec 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    A few months from now I may owe the new kid on the block a big apology and I'll be delighted to humbly ask forgiveness if necessary. In the meantime I'll rely on my spider sense that something is a little off.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    John, BTW I notice that OMY has been venturing out in disguise far more often of late and trying to make its points on your articles. Guess the troll is getting sick of sitting in its own feces talking to itself. So much for "I would NEVER post on the SA board." That entity is a real POS.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The problem OMY has visiting SA in drag is that SA's moderation is far more vigilant and I've taken pains to carefully address and dismiss every point; many of them more than once.

     

    There is no room on this forum for endless repetition of the same theme and once a question is asked and answered all OMY in drag can do is move on to the next round of foolishness. The latest questions seem to be scraping the bottom of the barrel and no damage has been done. Soon OMY in drag will either have to go away or get obnoxious. The former suits me just fine, as does the latter because SA doesn't put up with harassment of its top contributors.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Ahh, I never witnessed the incarnation of OMY (glad I missed the prostitute giving birth to that). So far the dude has laid claim to 300K shares in less than a week, which is just peanuts apparently, while he seems to have some pretty uneducated questions on the PbC and what he wants to use it for. If he is just an eccentric cocky dude willing to frivolously throw $100k at a micro-cap stock without understanding the product -- I think that is just sooo cool (sarcasm). but if he is merely planting the seeds to obfuscate the conversation at some later date it will be blatantly obvious. Fun!
    21 Dec 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    We occasionally see real people talking about buying five or ten thousand shares. Investors that can afford to buy six figure blocks are usually private and humble enough that they say nothing. They also tend to buy in smaller block sizes even if their ultimate goal is a very big number.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... No one makes "peanut" sized speculative positions in what would appear to a market participant as a struggling/failing company without educating oneself quite thoroughly. So far, the questions asked show little understanding of the product. Where does he see the money ... from Axion's stellar momentum?
    21 Dec 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    The stock is 28 cents..hundreds of thousands of shares don't cost much. In this case, 100K is not "an impressive sized block". Let's be real--this stock is about a quarter from zero. I almost always put up my bid size in total since I want to know if there are sellers. If they are there, they give me what I want. If not, the bid languishes. it doesn't really matter .28 or .25 or whatever--this is very biotech-ish in that it is binary. Very successful or zero.So take off the tin foil hats folks, because if it is zero, that is part of the risk I already know exists. I won't talk about selling, or claim to be seller, i would just be gone.

     

    The suspicion works both ways. I don't worship at the altar of JP--frankly he makes some really incorrect statements and never admits to being wrong. Big red flag. His accounting analysis is quite simplistic. He specializes in shell corp reverse mergers. He seems to have endless time for stock message boards everywhere. Why?He bashes alternate technologies constantly on every website that will listen. Why? The Axion world is a bit incestuous. It's a penny stock. The red flags are raining down, but the technology is worthwhile. I have done my own due diligence. I have been doing this as long as any. I am just as worried about hidden agendas as the next guy.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    So, what did I tell you guys about the new kid on the block who pretends to play nice but really just wants to be a bully? Tolerate whatever you want but I'm done with this bozo.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Let's see....I have been called a troll, I have a hidden agenda, I am lying about buying shares, I am ignorant of the company, and it is me who is the bully?
    21 Dec 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Ah yes, the dude shows more of his true agenda.

     

    I've been suspicious too. If you look at his first post it basically knocks the Hub as expensive, would be better with lithium batteries, etc. I'd be okay with that, but he presents no facts or anything that can be refuted or confirmed.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    What facts would you like D Lane? From Victron I can buy their largest Quattro inverter/charger, Lynx battery management, and 25kWh of battery backup for around $37,000 retail. That's twice the HUB capacity at 75% of the price, but as I said, it does not have the line smoothing aspects of the UPS. If you read again what I wrote, my whole interest in Axion stems from the PbC batteries doing as good or better than the Li-ion for much less money. I have sent Victron the info on Axions batteries to see if their equipment was compatible. It is. You can contact Victron if you do not believe me. I have done extensive research on renewable energy storage--flow batteries, Li, PbC, flooded LA, AGM, hydrogen electrolyzers, fuel cells(Hydrogenics, ProtonOnSite, Acta), compresed air(Lightsail Energy) and so much more. So I ask again, what facts would you like and I would be glad to share them?
    21 Dec 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    "We occasionally see real people talking about buying five or ten thousand shares. Investors that can afford to buy six figure blocks are usually private and humble enough that they say nothing. They also tend to buy in smaller block sizes even if their ultimate goal is a very big number."

     

    Are you joking? Why would I buy small blocks of a twenty eight cent stock? If I can bid for 100K, and I get filled, why would I feed in small blocks? I have traded millions of shares of stock over the decades--I am very aware how to get it done at the cheapest price possible. Dicking around in the ten thousandth place on a 28 cent stock is not useful.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    "but if he is merely planting the seeds to obfuscate the conversation at some later date it will be blatantly obvious."

     

    "later date" and "blatantly obvious" just became 12:08 Dec 21. I never read his prior posts other than the tidbits about him buying...the other stuff was garble to me that I gloss over anymore and don't bother reading.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2101) | Send Message
     
    My biggest Christmas wish on SA is for an "ignore" button.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Or a host who isn't reluctant to use the little red x and vaporize the scoundrels.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Feel free to eliminate me. It's your sandbox and you can keep it as insular as you desire. I respect your right to defend your integrity, and if you feel removing those who question is your best method, ok. I will defend my integrity as well. You can call me all the names you want(you added scoundrel now as well--good work). I don't know you, don't care to really. Good luck with whatever you are trying to do here.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Boy, if I had a nickel for every "newbie" that shows up here with a "new" screen name and does the following.

     

    1) First, plays dumb
    2) Asks lots of questions
    3) In short order "leaks" that he is really no stranger to the tech
    4) Claims to be buying or selling
    5) (and this is a must) ONLY comments on Axion with *that* Avatar
    6) Becomes a deliberate troll in short order (usu. a week to a month)
    7) Acts totally surprised and appalled when "called out"
    8) Claim he/she will go away now... but doesn't

     

    I could use those proceeds to accumulate more stock
    21 Dec 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • bobhaeger
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    Let me join the chorus, JP. You described Omy's behavior well over on Brand X. The comments started out quite positive and supportive of Axion, then slowly turned skeptical, followed by increasing shades of negativity, and finished by urging everyone to sell sell sell.
    21 Dec 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    1) First, plays dumb
    Go back and read my first posts. I didn't play dumb one bit.

     

    2) Asks lots of questions
    First post--one question. How much $$ per kWh of storage.
    3) In short order "leaks" that he is really no stranger to the tech
    Yes, in my first post I said I have done research on renewable energy storage and found Axion.
    4) Claims to be buying or selling
    and your point?
    5) (and this is a must) ONLY comments on Axion with *that* Avatar
    Check my history--2008 i commented on reinsurance stocks, after that on Hilltop Holdings
    6) Becomes a deliberate troll in short order (usu. a week to a month)
    More troll names--prove it
    7) Acts totally surprised and appalled when "called out"
    As any normal human would. HLT seems surprised too--call him a troll why dont you.
    8) Claim he/she will go away now... but doesn't
    Never claimed I would go away.

     

    Now, you have a real problem with facts, and you seem unable to do the most simple research.
    21 Dec 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Insurance Dude: That wasn't so much directed at you specifically, but rather more of general observation. Look, I've been around awhile. Over time you begin to notice patterns. My above post reflects this pattern that I (we've) witnessed. I'm not wishing to pick a fight and I wish you the best of luck in your research and your investments.
    21 Dec 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz:

     

    ID's numbers look unrealistically big to me, also.

     

    Maybe I am the smallest piker on this board, but 100,000 shares of any stock is *huge* from my perspective, and some guy who only heard of Axion last week and seems not even to know much about the company, the product, or the applications claims to be buying shares by the hundreds of thousands.

     

    Big fat women post pictures of sexy women in bikinis on the Internet and tell you that is them. You can claim to be anything or anyone you want typing on a keyboard somewhere. Sometimes I get paranoid about some of *you* guys.

     

    ID's story sounds pretty unrealistic to me.

     

    JMHO.
    21 Dec 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Oddly I trust the numbers he's talking about. But I do not think he intends to be a kinda firm hand.

     

    Anyway, I think it is a good time to say, as I plan to take a few days break which I already did in regard to my gym,
    Merry Christmas, guys!
    See ya in 2013!
    Live long and prosper!

     

    PS, almost forgot to mention I plan to change my icon soooooon.
    21 Dec 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    ID and all

     

    fwiw, I personally like someone who doesn't mind expressing doubts about drinking the kool aid, even if the kool aid happens to be a flavor I like. I don't mind counter points of view, unless it's a flat out jerk that spouts negative crap without any foundation or support for his/her view. I hope ID stays with AXPW and continues to post, so long as it's constructive. I haven't seen a post of his that hasn't been semi-constructive thus far. Bashing JP was borderline, but it wasn't ID that drew first blood.
    21 Dec 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    This is quite interesting. I just saw your posts. You may want to look at mine. I was posting on John Petersen's recent articles. I, like you, found many red flags, simplistic statements, even what I think are false statements. So I pointed it out and provided links to quotes backing up my statements.

     

    Do I get thanks from correcting John or anyone else for correcting John Petersen or attempting to explain subject matter, no.

     

    It started when I alerted them to the fact that "The Axion battery is said to have specific energy to 15–25Wh/kg instead of 30–50Wh/kg for the conventional or AGM."

     

    And I pointed out That is 50 % less - 75 % less, probably a big issue. And of course no one could deny the truth, but they appeared angry at me for bringing it up.

     

    So what happens next, same as you, I am labeled as suspicious, I am paid to write against Axion, I am a naive neophte and then a paid professional to undermine the corporation. John Petersen makes rediculous accusations that other posters seem to agree with.

     

    It appears to me there is naive or intentional pumping of every positive without any identification or discussion of any possible negative. And if you bring up a possible concern, you are immediately criticized and insulted.

     

    Here are some recent posts of mine on the message board of John Petersen's recent article :

     

    The article is entitled, " Lithium-Ion Batteries Were A Bust, But Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Are Booming "

     

    The author wrote a long article and seems to say LI fails and When I pointed out JCI was effectively stating the opposite (probably quite embarrasing to the author that 2 days later JCI corrected it)

     

    " December 19, 2012
    JCI posted on their website their stategic summary and
    the quote: " Micro Hybrid applications will require a “non-lead-acid” energy storage solution. "

     

    they were again very unpleasant.

     

    My most recent post:

     

    "It appears easy to be enthusiastic when your enthusiasm is based on incorrect foundation. I deal with facts, I often find myself correcting or providing clarification for you John Petersen. You can keep insulting me if you like, but that does not change the facts. I cannot understand why I try civil conversation, and yet you repeatedly attack me. But again, I will ignore your attack.

     

    John Petersen lets see you correct the following information, please do. But I know you cannot.

     

    John, you claim

     

    "Fleet testing is usually measured in months, not years. "

     

    However according to BMW and Axion that is not true.

     

    This was explained by Axion previously as reported by one of the posters that attended the Q&A:

     

    "Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry.

     

    For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
    more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    If you do not want to accept Bob Avril's opinion, I suggest you look at what BMW has reported as recently as August 2012

     

    See here

     

    http://bit.ly/UPbd1R

     

    August 2012 investor presentation
    Page 56 electronic field test worldwide

     

    " In total 600 units are in use in LA, the greater NYC region,
    Munich, Berlin, London, Paris, Tokyo, Beijing and Shenzhen "

     

    So a rational person may estimate they test many units 200 - 600, in quite a few markets NY to Berlin to China, and it can take a year or more.

     

    I cannot possibly imagine how anyone could reasonably claim the Axion battery ""Fleet testing is usually measured in months, not years. " when

     

    A. The PbC is a brand new product and we all know what happened to AONE's product and market wide recall which entered them into bankruptcy. Any rational market player will not make that mistake, and Axion would be foolish too to try it.

     

    B. The PbC effects not just the battery but the voltage system which has to be altered to suit the PbC battery. You may claim it is a simple inexpensive change (I disagree) but it is still a change.

     

    Suffice it to say, you are wrong again, and this naive neophyte as you now try to insult me, is once again correcting you. "

     

    Well it seems no one wants to even see anything that may disappoint them. So this John Petersen is probably free to post whatever he wants no matter how far fetched or how little back up he provides. We can only sit and watch what happens. I enjoy the John Petersen posts as interesting and raising interesting discussion, I caution only that a lot of it seems to be based on great enthusiasm and no fact.
    22 Dec 2012, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    For someone who claims to be a fact checking teller of truth you have the highest number of distortions per column inch I've ever seen.

     

    First, a Lifeline 30HT AGM battery has specific energy of 40 wh/kg, but only if it's discharged over 20 hours. With rapid discharge, the specific energy of AGM falls by more than 50%. The PbC described in the specifications sheet on the Rosewater website has specific energy of 15 wh/kg with a one-hour discharge period. When used for its intended purpose the PbC does not have a specific energy disadvantage.

     

    Second, detailed descriptions of automaker field test protocols are hard to find, but I do have a pair of Journal of Power Sources articles that describe BMW's 6-month field test of AGM batteries in micro-hybrid vehicles in 2007. The test is described as the last step in the product design process which may overlap the commencement of production.

     

    Third, JCI plans to offer a lithium-lead battery combination, but they focused extensively on a three-year payback and 15% fuel savings. That suggests a system cost in the $630 to $720 range, which is a good deal higher than the anticipated cost of a PbC system. The PbC does not need to be a silver bullet solution to make Axion highly successful. All it needs to be is a credible cost-effective competitor.

     

    Fourth, A123 ran into problems because they rushed into production and did not properly calibrate one of their welding machines. That flaw gave rise to a $54 million recall that pushed A123 over the edge. The failure had nothing to do with customer acceptance of their product.

     

    There is no room for Imagination, speculation, conjecture and innuendo when you're talking about other people's money. You need to tie facts down to the gnats ass and make accurate comparisons instead of vague distortions.
    22 Dec 2012, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Two comments have been deleted as they threatened to deteriorate into personal battles deleterious to our purpose here.

     

    Contrary facts are welcomed and tolerated when due respect is maintained.

     

    This thread is certainly beyond borderline.

     

    FYI: Comments of *several* regular participants have been deleted in the past, including JP, HTL, Mayascribe, ...

     

    Guideline: If you do wish to participate here:
    - What JP does in his articles is his business. Don't drag that stuff here - it' not tolerated well from anybody including him. APH does try to avoid treating folks like children though and this does require some infrequent "laissez faire" in policing these things.

     

    - Present your "facts", avoid the personal attacks and use of pejorative terms that add nothing to the benefit of the readers.

     

    - Avoid needless and unproductive repetition of that which has been presented before.

     

    - APH does not engage in conversations about these things. Deletion may appear arbitrary. APH doesn't care. Color your behavior to suit your priorities and goals in light of this.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    #1 YESSSsss

     

    Edit : Oops, Never mind.
    22 Dec 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    LoL Iindelco. I loved it!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Dec 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    APH> I'm not the least bit offended by the occasional deletion. I'm nobody's doormat and will protect myself when appropriate, even if it means you hit the little red x occasionally.
    22 Dec 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    It is a clear pattern I have seen develop. A poster raises an issue or discusses a subject matter that you (John Petersen) do not want raised. Attack the poster, label them a troll, rally the troops to insult the poster too, and bait him or her into a reply that is then deleted. It is no surprise to me to see you, in an off hand way, are asking the board monitor to delete posts.

     

    " APH> I'm not the least bit offended by the occasional deletion. I'm nobody's doormat and will protect myself when appropriate, even if it means you hit the little red x occasionally. "

     

    we both know that means please delete posts.

     

    APH, I just ask that you be cautious in the deletions. Yes if profane or outrageous sure delete them, but otherwise I understand we are all adults here, I am certain I do not need the deletions to protect me.

     

    Adults should be able to respectfully disagree, and at times, perhaps even a bit disrespectful. I can only say I read about 10 posts calling insurancedue a troll, or otherwise accusing him; I see no action taken on those attacking posts, and I see no basis for the attacks.

     

    Of course now I may be accused of being insurancedude; I am not.
    And then it will be said I know insurancedude and am paid to work with him; I don't and I'm not.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    This Bob Avril quote (below) was posted on this very seeking alpha message board. Poster MAYA posted it and John Petersen you were involved in the commentary at the time. You posted above it, and two posts below it.

     

    But recently when I wrote I was concerned that they would need more money, not just a financing now, but another financing possible, before fleet testing was done,

     

    you wrote "Fleet testing is usually measured in months, not years. " implying the Axion BMW testing would be done in months and that no additional financing would be needed before fleet testing completed.

     

    I said I thought you wrong, and I sought only to provide you the quote, and have done so. I said it politely, and I was met with insult as I am here.

     

    And it was only tonight that I looked deeper and you did in fact post the post above the Bob Avril quote, and two below it, so you knew Bob Avril said expect a year or so when you wrote expect months. I find that quite disturbing.

     

    Suffice it to say I am in fact, fact checking. These are the Axion company words.

     

    ""Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry.

     

    For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
    more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    I will not get into argument on you with the other points.
    Lets just say I disagree.

     

    But I do think a reasonable person would have said, thanks I forgot about that or oh yeah, thats right, Bob Avril did explain it, rather than attacking the person saying they have the highest number of distortions, after all, it is the company quote.
    23 Dec 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Nobody is attacking you. All of us, however, are getting tired of answering the same question over and over again.

     

    Once again you're back on the question of field test timing. When you asked me about that issue in my "lithium-ion batteries were a bust article" I patiently and thoughtfully responded:

     

    "I've only been able to find one detailed description of an OEM field test protocol, but I think it's a fairly good example since it was a BMW field test of AGM batteries in micro-hybrids in March 2007.

     

    The study is described in a pair of articles that were published in the Journal of Power Sources. The first describes the testing protocols and the second describes the results. The author is S. Schaek. Copies of the articles will cost you about $35 each.

     

    My favorite quote describes the process and says "A field operational test [FOT[ is part of the simultaneous engineering [SE] process in the automotive industry. It is at the end of the product development process and may overlap with series production. Thus the FOT aims at the final complete system with possibly little modifications"

     

    The AGM field test took six months and involved four fleets including (a) police cars, (b) mobile service cars, (c) VIP shuttle service cars, and (c) pre-series vehicles.

     

    Field testing is a very important step in the auto industry. It's also the very last step in a long and complex process that's conducted right before a component goes into production. If an FOT test is started early next year, a design win announcement in September would be the expected outcome."

     

    Repeating the same negative spin while trying to create an image of confusion after an issue has been addressed is not responsible adult behavior.

     

    I have given you direct first hand information that is inherently more reliable than a stockholders recollection of a conversation he had with a director at a stockholders meeting. Ignoring the direct first hand information and repeating the hearsay does not clarify the facts. It only muddles them.
    23 Dec 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Grobert
    What you are are asking for is for the thread to cluttered up with a bunch of nonsense. Just like Yahoo.
    I've looked at the presentation You offered and found it IMO a ridiculous comparison of a full EV fleet testing VS in Axion's case a replacement of a starter battery. Then posted it on the other active thread and have now posted it 4 times.

     

    I do think a reasonable person who knew nothing about would have posted it once, to get feedback, and see if there was anything to it. No one who was not purposefully trying to be disruptive would have posted it multiple time on different threads. I look forward to having all your posts removed Omy

     

    P.S. APH thanks for removing disruptive and personal attack posts.
    23 Dec 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    John Petersen "Nobody is attacking you"

     

    John you know among the insults I have put up with for no apparent reason are John you yourself said, and I quote:

     

    "Since its obvious that you don't understand the first thing about how batteries" "your questioning over techno-trivia " a "troll"
    "I'm not entirely clear who is paying you to distort facts and argue absurdities the way you do." a "concerned naive neophyte "

     

    Thats just a few, I witnessed the same occur with poster insurancedude.

     

    You said they should and you referred to him as " vaporize the scoundrels " you called him a " troll" a "bully" and a "bozo"
    " bully? Tolerate whatever you want but I'm done with this bozo."

     

    You are the only one using these words. You are constantly on the attack, at least that is what I see, but I imagine all the others see that too.

     

    You claim now that you want to rely on a 2007 document you read and you direct me to that 2007 document

     

    despite the fact Bob Avril of Axion Board of Directors specifically addressed it and your friend MAYA posted it . " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so.". And you replied that same date that Maya posted it, so you ignore Axion and Avril and MAYA and the posts you yourself made, and go back to 2007 to justify your comment.

     

    I don't buy it. Others may, I don't. I saw you all chase away insurancedude, I feel the same was attempted on me. One question, why ? I can only believe you don't want anyone here questioning you.

     

    Bob Avril and Axion spoke. I politely provided the quote and politely reminded you of the quote. Instead of you saying, oh, I forgot about that, you say well look at 2007. I don't buy it.
    23 Dec 2012, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    So grobertson1, Since you're choosing to spread the same post around I'll ask the same question you're ignoring on the other article where you posted . If you're so interested in the topic why don't you address this?
    -
    So the page you reference is titled "THE BIGGEST ELECTRIC VEHICLE FIELD TEST WORLDWIDE." This is a field test for a complete EV program from a company that has never put an EV on the road. Are you suggesting that the scope of field testing an EV would in any way mimic how a company that has hundreds of thousands of mild hybrids on the road would field test an AGM based energy storage unit in a system they have had on the road for years? One of the top 10 automakers in the world for innovation doesn't have managers / engineers / statisticians that can come up with a more cost effective and timely way to differentiate how to more effectively mange risk between these two levels of technology integration.

     

    I'll stop here. You can post all the back-up material for your statements you want but you have to understand what you're posting. This is clearly an area where you have no expertise. But my suspicion is understanding is not your rational for posting.

     

    PS Your writing style does not change just because you change your moniker. People that run around changing their masks do so for a reason. What's yours?
    23 Dec 2012, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    froggey, I posted it 4 times because you call it nonsense
    and I call it Axion speaking through their own representative. I can't believe anyone would call Bob Avril statement to the investors nonsense.

     

    The BMW investor report I gave a link to was only put in to show how complicated it can get. I never said they would require 600 vehicles in worldwide markets, but I do believe you should believe what Bob Avril told you, expect 200 vehicles and a year or so. A few months seems foolish to believe.

     

    They told you not to become overly hopeful, they told you it may be a year or so, 200 vehicles, and you know Fleet testing has not even started or at least MAYA told you this:

     

    ""Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry.

     

    For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
    more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    If you do not appreciate that reminder then so be it.
    If that is your opinion of cluttering the board with nonsense
    well I guess your entitled to your opinion just as I am entitled to my opinion.

     

    I am not looking for a fight with anyone. I am looking for reasonable discussion. I think posters should be able to express their opinion without being attacked. Seems to me that insurancedude is the perfect example, the intent here seems to be to insult and chase away anyone with a question. Well that is what seems to be happening anyway.
    23 Dec 2012, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    iindellco I thought I have answered your question at least twice. one poster froggey complains I post it 4 times and that is too much, you say I don't answer it and I post too little.

     

    based on the Bob Avril Axion statement and the BMW investor presentation I think it fair to estimate someone could expect field testing to be complicated, someone should not get their hopes up for quick turnaround, and yes it may be anywhere in the range of 200 to 600 cars, probably 200 and a year or so as Bob Avril stated. You are entitled to your own opinion as I am to mine.

     

    Poster MAYA told you to
    "not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. "...
    " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

     

    If you have a problem with the quote, MAYA is the one to ask, not me.
    23 Dec 2012, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    grobertson1, finding the same post in two or more places and the same follow up from others is annoying. refusing to acknowledge those follow ups and putting the words of others in a context that suits you is more misdirection.

     

    please start your own concentrator. this is not reasonable discussion because you are ignoring one side of the conversation.
    23 Dec 2012, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    grobert
    "froggey, I posted it 4 times because you call it nonsense"

     

    Repetition of nonsense, that has been answered, makes it more nonsense, not less.
    As any rational person would know.

     

    "I am looking for reasonable discussion."

     

    By repeating yourself endlessly?
    No you're not.
    Omy, I look forward to your new identity.
    23 Dec 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Go APH - The honeybadger doesn't care either -

     

    http://bit.ly/RVZt26
    21 May, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    I have to know what prompted you to come back to a 1.5 year old thread to post that?
    22 May, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Funny enough, I thought it was getting posted in response to a recent comment by APH that said he didn't care. Somehow though I was linked back here ... then I just didn't care, ha.
    22 May, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, the narration is priceless!

     

    JRP3, I also was wondering about placement. Non-standard day here at the watering hole I guess.
    22 May, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    lol, it is really funny.
    22 May, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    This is probably what Marlin Perkins always really wanted to say.
    22 May, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Metro, Nice ride! Hot weather testing in Dubai? :-I

     

    A Chat With Randall: On Nasty Honey Badgers, Bernie Madoff And Fame

     

    Tell me how you came up with the idea of narrating these videos of animals.

     

    Well, my papa was an assistant cameraman on Marlon Perkins’ Mutual of Omaha‘s Wild Kingdom, and later, promoted to cameraman-cameraman. My father was always traveling and filming all of these outrageous animals and seeing so many beautiful cultures and people; he’d come home, set up the projector and show us all of this incredible footage! So, I was always around that. As well, my grandmother and her friends (whom all, truly raised me) would take me to the zoo, like, twice a week without fail. So, growing up, I got into the habit of narrating everything: trips to the zoo, the animals at the zoo, my pop’s footage, everything. I started all that craziness at around seven? Six years old?

     

    http://onforb.es/1tp64zO
    22 May, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Who is in Dubai?

     

    My family and I are moving to Al Ain, UAE, this summer
    22 May, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Jon, IIRC Metro has been spending significant time in Dubai.
    22 May, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Jon: Metroneanderthal.

     

    Last I heard. http://bit.ly/1gTGEIK

     

    HardToLove
    22 May, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Hi JS,
    Tired of Florida already?
    22 May, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks !

     

    Not "tired of Florida". My wife needed a teaching job and the school in Florida is "so good" (rolls eyes) that they were not interested in her and her Master's from University of Virginia (one of the best teaching programs in the country according to US News & World Report)... and then added insult to injury by saying they would not interview her now because none of them wanted to hire her before...

     

    She tried for international work to get me closer to the countries I cover and we landed in the UAE...
    22 May, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Hi JS,
    I understand your wife's problem and commend her on the solution. My wife's native language is Spanish (Nicaragua) and was very well educated before she came to the US and learned English. She managed to get a teaching degree (and certificate) and 2 Masters degrees then was laid off in the first round of teacher lay offs 5 years ago. She has been subbing and tutoring since. She almost took a position in Japan as a teacher of English, but decided the pay versus the high living costs were untenable. More power to you and your globe trotting family (hopefully no global trots). :-)
    22 May, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Jon,
    Yes, here in Dubai. Will PM you.
    22 May, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    That story is really "interesting" about Randall. Yes, was doing some mileage testing with ePower, but management decided my foot was too heavy and I was a bit indelicate with the controls.

     

    22 May, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed...

     

    Its a crazy system. I realize more and more that the hiring process of teachers does not include vetting a teacher's quality. Hope your wife is able to get a job soon as I'm sure student would benefit as well.
    22 May, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    I think teaching is a bit like TG's job. Easy to criticize, but a whole lot going on that the interested parties don't see. Also have to deal with all the looney parents (shareholders) - and there are lots of them out there that are one stop short of East Ham.
    23 May, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Worldwide Capacity of Advanced Batteries for Utility-Scale Energy Storage Will Multiply Nearly 200-fold by 2022

     

    http://bit.ly/QvfKXN
    21 Dec 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Bipolar disorder.

     

    Battery firm Atraverda's job loss warning

     

    http://bbc.in/ZZgpGC
    21 Dec 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    It's more than a job loss warning Iindelco. It's an insolvency restructuring under the UK equivalent of Chapter 11.

     

    http://bit.ly/Uibe1i
    21 Dec 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Yep I saw that. You were correct on your comments regarding the difficulty of commercializing the process on this one. I'll be even more interested to see who if anyone steps up to the plate. This might be a good one for E-bikes. Perhaps the Chinese again.

     

    Thump, thump, thump, Another one..............

     

    Oh well, I thought I remembered posting a win for them this year.

     

    Atraverda partners with Sharp for solar storage project
    25 May 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/YubAVj
    21 Dec 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... It's a sad thing to see happen. I don't know much about the product but I do know a bipolar battery is one of the daydreams of the storage sector. I don't know anything about the company but this fate is the risk inherent in small developmental companies with seemingly good ideas & product. Apparently they didn't have the financial where-with-all to survive the testing regime of their potential customer base and make it to commercial sales. Cash flow and/or solid investors are as important as technology.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    We met with Atraverda back in 2004 or 2005 and thought their sputtered titanium sub-oxide coating was an interesting corrosion protection technology. Nothing ever came of the meeting but I'm sure the boys from New Castle would love to find an easier and cheaper way to protect the current collector from the electrolyte.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I'm muttled at the moment but I thought Axion had a diamond coating process to do just that.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    John, I have to believe there are any number of processes that have already been developed for what Axion needs. The semiconductor industry, as one example, is sputtering materials and doing all kinds of material deposition in one atom or more thick layers.

     

    Now something that would be affordable on X x Y inch copper sheets given Axion's cost targets. Well...........
    21 Dec 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Therein lies the big rub in the battery industry - it has to work great, withstand tremendous vibration and lateral forces and be implemented for pennies.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    John, Yeah. I know just enough to be a little less dangerous! Thus the cautionary note. :(

     

    I must admit having starry eyes talking with my youngest about all the deposition processes they were doing at Micron when he did his first co-op. Then he ruined it when he started taking about cycles times and the multi-tens of millions of UDS's for the process equipment. Darn that reality stuff!
    21 Dec 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Tis sad. From what I had read the battery had great promise and I could think of the apps where it fit.

     

    I often wonder, given the short attention span of Western culture/investors, if we could do better at launching products that take a decade or more to bring to market? One of the characteristics the Japanese are noted for.

     

    Axion may build my confidence!
    21 Dec 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I hope Axion does build your confidence. Our favored storage technology company may not be in the same boat but floats upon the same sea.
    21 Dec 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Easy distractions from the primary purpose of this board by those with hair-triggers and excessive sensitivity, IMO, resulting in possible loss of valuable input are disgusting to me.

     

    Lack of patience to see what develops also.

     

    I'm thankful that I'm not easily swayed by other people's problems.

     

    The distractions you all provide are greater than what might be contributed by any real troll, IMO, even allowing for later greater effort to "clean up the mess".

     

    Happy holidays - go get snockered or something else more useful than what's going on here right now.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    " IMO, resulting in possible loss of valuable input are disgusting to me. "

     

    I agree 100 %. I read a few of insurancedude's posts and found them knowledgeable. A smart person or investor wants a devils advocate to double check their position. Only a fool wants to keep seeing only one side of the coin.

     

    If insurancedude is gone, you lost what appears to be a valuable contributor, you did read that he contacted Victron
    " I have sent Victron the info on Axions batteries to see if their equipment was compatible. It is. "

     

    I again urge the board monitor use caution when deleting posts for this reason alone.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    grobertson1: Why are you so worried about being deleted?
    25 Dec 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Beginning to look like neither UL or ePower are leaving presents under our tree this year.

     

    Hard to see any kind of announcements in the next 2 weeks if no one will be paying attention :-(

     

    Wonder if the US weather in the last few days affected ePower's data collection?
    21 Dec 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: I'm beginnng to believe that TG is a "closet Axionista" - nothing comes as quickly as he has been expecting, or told(?). Can't blame him though - we all work with best available information at the time. And so much is outside his control.

     

    I guess it's not uncommon, especially in the space he's in.

     

    Keeping the faith regardless,
    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2012, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    wtb ... I find lack of UL cert quite disappointing. TG claimed in the CC that the testing lab had made a definite commitment to complete there work by early December. Absent announcement of cert there are only two possible explanations -- 1) the lab failed to meet its performance commitments or 2) the lab met its performance commitments and the HUB fails UL standards without modification (and more testing time).

     

    On ePower, I have not understood why anyone is expecting public disclosure of any info by ePower or Axion before late next week or early in January. And, when new info does bubble up I now it expect it to be quite different and well short of expectations formed in November. The ePower storyline changed multiple times already and if JP is correct in thinking Axion or ePower thinks fewer than 52 PbC batteries will do the job of an equivalent number of AGMs further change in ePower's development and PO timeline appears probable.

     

    ISTM, domestic or foreign PowerCube sales for renewable energy projects or industrial FR/UPS applications, delivery of APU units to unnamed truck OEMs, indirect confirmation of PbC deliveries to NSC (sighting of NS999 moving under its own power) are more prospective events for news than either HUB or ePower motive applications.
    21 Dec 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    D-inv:
    Although I was hoping for news from ePower this week, I agree with you on timing of any public disclosure from ePower. ePower owes Axion shareholders nothing and are simply evaluating a battery for their use. I'm betting they want to get some meaningful validation miles before making any announcement, and that they are as anxious as we are for good results.
    22 Dec 2012, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you are a level headed man. I commend you on that.
    21 Dec 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    PR rush right as the new year commences actually strikes my fancy. We'll see if it happens but it could be a great lead-in to the stock offering.
    21 Dec 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping the rush of positive news develops after the first of the year when people aren't preoccupied by holiday issues and when I'll have some fresh funds to expand my AXPW position near current prices. Confident that substantial gratification awaits, I'm ok with delaying that gratification for another week or two. :)
    21 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    2012 Top Trends in Demand Response

     

    FERC Orders 745 and 755, OpenADR, the smart building-smart grid nexus, and other key demand response trends

     

    JEFF ST. JOHN: DECEMBER 21, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/Yv39Jn

     

    Includes reference to:

     

    OpenADR: The Next Generation

     

    Honeywell, EnerNOC, IPKeys, Universal Devices launch first products for OpenADR 2.0. Who will be next?

     

    JEFF ST. JOHN: SEPTEMBER 17, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/UOfhiQ
    21 Dec 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Two excellent finds WTB! Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Dec 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    "Sure, the launch comes nearly a year behind schedule,.....

     

    It seems this is just the way things work.
    22 Dec 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    More info. on the Mazda I-ELOOP system.

     

    Typical deceleration is 10 seconds but takes only a few seconds to charge the capacitor bank. Sounds like some level of compromise but depends on how much load you have in the vehicle and the deceleration frequency. But the DCA is far better than an aged LAB so perhaps still better but at what cost?

     

    "A typical vehicle deceleration phase lasts only about 10 seconds. Realising that the effectiveness of regenerative braking systems to date has been limited by the charging and storage drawbacks of conventional lead-acid starter batteries, Mazda engineers adopted an electric double-layer capacitor (EDLC), which recharges fully in only a few seconds. An efficient 12V-25V variable voltage alternator generates the electricity and charges the EDLC; a DC/DC converter then steps down the voltage to power electrical components such as the climate control air-conditioning and audio systems, with any surplus going to the starter battery."

     

    http://bit.ly/UiTEKs
    21 Dec 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    12/21/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 777, MaxTrSz: 44625, Vol 177767, AvTrSz: 7111
    Min. Pr: 0.2760, Max Pr: 0.2822, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2783
    # Buys, Shares: 10 53927, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2801
    # Sells, Shares: 14 113840, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2772,
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2800
    Buy:Sell 1:2.11 (30.3% “buys”), DlyShts (9.68%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.11%

     

    Well, an abbreviated assessment from the traditional TA front seems in order. The first thing is the low volume and tight price range, which continues unabated. In normal times I would read this as confirmation that we are in and maybe near ending a short-term consolidation. But this is a Friday, which can commonly come with low volume, and we've entered the holidays season, which also brings lower volume. That tends to be accompanied by tight price spreads. Adding in that we're only into a possible consolidation for the 4th day, it would be presumptive to read a low-volume day with a tight spread as signaling the end of the consolidation, if we are really in one – which I do believe.

     

    Price continues to honor that rising support, but just barely. We finished up +0.79% - not impressive if you think about it in terms of fractional pennies.

     

    Maybe a note on the trend line is in order. I always try to start establishing these things early. This leads to some false starts and requires adjustment as data points become available. Over a relatively brief span, the assessment of the trend line firms up. This can take longer if we start to slide into a medium-term or longer consolidation of sideways movement, which is quite common. The risk that there really is no trend established during this time is relatively high and real. Those two things alone suggest that when I fail to highlight this, I may mislead some folks. I'll try to keep that in mind in the future.

     

    I had mentioned a needed “time to recover from the 17th's high volume and volatility”. We've begun to see some recovery from that frenetic day as RSI has now recovered to an almost neutral reading of ~47.3. Accumulation has started to recover, moving from Thursday's -0.55xx to end this day at -0.38 – still low but moving in the right direction. Momentum is clawing back towards neutral as well, ending today with a near-neutral reading of 0.9898.

     

    Price is hanging right around the 50-day SMA of $0.2838, which will continue to fade unless we get a little move up because some higher prices are falling out the back end of the sliding window of the calculation period. This should work to keep share price near that average sans any price drop, which is looking less likely as time passes now.

     

    The traditional 20-period Bollinger Bands are not suggesting a “pop” yet, although price positioning does suggest some upward mobility to get back into the mid-range of the band. But that's not saying it ought to do that. My experimental settings on those do suggest a small rise as price is tracking just above the lower one (it's not “pushing” on it, which has proven negative with this setting in the past) with lots of headroom (LoL! A whole $0.0078 up to ~$0.29) to get back to mid-range.

     

    The few others I normally watch haven't done anything new worth noting yet.

     

    The MACD, which I normally don't watch, has at least temporarily abandoned it's negative slide and now started to move back towards a more neutral attitude. There's still a bit to go though, so I'm not throwing a party yet.

     

    On my experimental stuff, daily short sales moved towards more normal, but we must be mindful of the low volume and discount any possible meaning I think. The average trade size snapped back to mid-retail size and right on the long-term trend reading. Nothing notable there I think.

     

    My experimental inflection point calculations have now stabilized and made the first indications that a price turn may be coming. But as before, they're not quite there yet. It's going to require some “normal” volumes, in conjunction with a steadier positive buy:sell, to actually cause a signal I think.

     

    So, same old, same old – we wait seems to be the order of the day.

     

    Happy holidays to all.

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.
    21 Dec 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Honda putting SS on its petrol scooters.

     

    Big oil will hate little Honda

     

    http://bit.ly/ZphBUz
    21 Dec 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    My wife has been using the Honda PCX 125 for well over a year now. She loves it. Quiet, powerful and very good on gas. The stop/start works very well.
    22 Dec 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Albert, Great! First hand knowledge trumps searching around on the internet looking for info. If you get a chance to look at the scooter or the manual could you tell me a type or manufacturer on the battery. Perhaps in the manual they have a part number that isn't a Honda "buy from me" part number.

     

    Only if you get a chance or it's not a pain in the butt. I'll find it if you don't get a chance.
    22 Dec 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    I would think that a conventional fla or, at most, Agm would be adequate for a scooter since hotel loads would be negligible. Or no?

     

    You know I love me a PBc but thinking this isn't an app for us.

     

    D
    22 Dec 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie, I agree when it comes to how the application is charged and discharged during normal operating cycles. But then I think of how many people utilize their scooters and motorcycles. For many there are often long or medium term durations of non-use. So the LAB's sit around at PSOC. Would PbC be a better solution or would its energy drain associated with the capacitive side of the storage unit be too much of a problem. Some might prefer the occasional jump start with a battery that is still good if you let it drain down and sit for awhile at PSOC but still be good once it's brought back to life.
    22 Dec 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    lindelco

     

    Apparently she doesn't know where the manual is.

     

    I had a look at the battery. It is manufactured by Yuasa.
    It lies on its side under the seat next to the helmet storage area.

     

    I would have to undo the terminal cables to see more of it. There is printing on the side that I can see which appears, I assume to be Japanese.

     

    I am reluctant to undo the connectors as I don't know what will happen when I reconnect.

     

    I did go on the Yuasa website and found that the battery model is CB125'73-80 6N6-3B Standard.

     

    Hope this is of some help.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Albert, You're too kind. I thank you for taking the time to do that level of sleuthing. Most probably AGM if it's on it's side but I'll take the time to research it further.

     

    Thanks again!
    22 Dec 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    It better be AGM if it's on it's side!
    23 Dec 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    I apologize for OT....but i wonder if one of you (HTL?) with such a program might be able to tell me if an approx. 500k trade today in ZBB was a buy or a sell? It is one of my holdings in addition to AXPW, KNDI, FCEL, XIDE and ACPW. Thanks in advance and Happy Holidays to all!
    21 Dec 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Tony: ATM my "program" is me sitting at the keyboard manually capturing trades and putting them in the spreadsheet. So unless I was tracking ZBB, which I'm not, I can't provide that normally.

     

    However, the trades screen I use still has all of yesterday's stuff available and does show what I think is your trade:
    12:07:30 458,600 $0.30 bid $0.30 ask $0.315

     

    So this would be a "sell". Be aware that (ZBB) has a lot of "burst basket" trades (40 of the day's 93 trades), meaning these are part of a "basket of trades" that happens to include ZBB. It's likely some sector ETF or sector fund of some kind.

     

    The specific 438K trade was *not* part of a "burst basket" though.

     

    Regardless, this means that you have to view stats on this sort of stuff for ZBB in a slightly different way I think - may not be reflective of specific investor sentiment, but might be just trades made to track some index, e.g.

     

    Regardless, here's the day's ending totals.
    "buys" 73,485, "sells" 521,465, "unknowns" 504.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    22 Dec 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thanks. I find your posts quite interesting and am glad to see you back. Peace.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Page 28 in the new NSBIZ for a nice holiday pic that's sure to warm more hearts than just us Axionista's. Now that's a great Locomotive!

     

    http://bit.ly/Ra0eSM
    21 Dec 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    ii, how about the NS 999 made out of cans on page 26?
    21 Dec 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, Yep, I used the PDF page number 28 of 32 which correlates to your page number.

     

    Not what we've been hoping for but a great launch none the less.

     

    I was kind of bummed a little when I saw this on page 10 of 32. I sure wish Axion could have gotten the battery banks for these hybrid rubber tire cranes. Drats.

     

    "As NS pursues greener technology across its operations, the experiment with hybrid cranes at McCalla puts the railroad at the forefront of the industry in use of this type of crane technology, Huffman said. The terminal will have three of the hybrid straddle cranes, which move around on rubber tires above trains, lifting containers on and off rail cars. The cranes, powered by a bank of batteries, are designed for continuous operation, with a small diesel engine charging the batteries during use.
    McCalla will be a testing ground to determine how well they perform and whether NS purchases more of them for other locations.
    “It is our hope that this new design will not only be much kinder to the environment, but also give us the added benefit of lower fuel costs and hopefully lower maintenance costs,” Huffman said."
    21 Dec 2012, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    ii, I didn't notice that it specified what kind of batteries were being used. Didn't NSC buy some extra batteries for additional testing? I seem to remember just such a statement in the last CC.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    jveal, You're correct but I thought these might be for the OTR loco testing? I was next going to go to the site of the manufacturer and see if I could snoop out what their current offerings are. Name is on page 6 of 32.

     

    Edit, Here is the unit they bought.

     

    http://bit.ly/TelAx9
    21 Dec 2012, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    ii, There was an additional order of $13,850 worth of batteries. TG did not state what they were for.
    21 Dec 2012, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    jveal, That would be about 33 batteries at 425 USD. At 12 VDC that's 400VDC in one string. Not sure it's enough for the application. Plus they indicate they are swapping packs to keep them running. Maybe being developed? We can hope.
    21 Dec 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Yes, we can always hope. Like many other applications, the PbC may replace the failed AGM batteries. You may not have been participating in the APC at the time, but this was one of the possible applications we discussed as much as a year ago. For others who may like to see some web sites about the crane:

     

    http://bit.ly/TelAx9
    http://bit.ly/UXB0Ey[tt_news]=73761&cH...
    http://bit.ly/HnltbS
    21 Dec 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    ii ... IIRC the amended PO for batteries only increased the contract $8K or so. And, TG's remarked in the cc to the effect that NS apparently acquired them to evaluate PbCs in non-locomotive applications. Also, I believe the PowerCube at New Castle and PbC strings provided in prior years to Penn State and NSC have been used for OTR testing purposes.

     

    Anyone have thoughts about the black/dark green "consist"/helper locomotive shown on page 30 of 32 (numbered page 28). Number on the locomotive is 8047.
    21 Dec 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, I think this is your second link that didn't work for me. It's about the development of the system. Mi-jack and Schneider Electric. Pretty sure the Axion PowerCube uses Modicon controls from SE which I've used for years. I wrote programs for machine controls for years so I'm familiar with the hardware and software platform.

     

    New crane combines hybrid engine with automation technology to lower emissions, reduce fuel use while making workers more productive.

     

    http://bit.ly/UXCwqa
    21 Dec 2012, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    "only increased the contract $8K or so."

     

    My bad. jveal reported the number - $13K
    21 Dec 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    "And, TG's remarked in the cc to the effect that NS apparently acquired them to evaluate PbCs in non-locomotive applications"

     

    Jveal and myself > 8-) LOL
    21 Dec 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    " Jveal, I think this is your second link that didn't work for me. It's about the development of the system. Mi-jack and Schneider Electric. Pretty sure the Axion PowerCube uses Modicon controls from SE which I've used for years. I wrote programs for machine controls for years so I'm familiar with the hardware and software platform."

     

    Sounds promising.
    21 Dec 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, BTW the Rosewater HUB is also using Modicon controls and has an HMI display.

     

    http://bit.ly/RXDm9k
    22 Dec 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    "Why It's The End Of The Line For Wind Power"
    " Start with the 8.2 cents per kWh from the EIA. Adding in the cost of keeping natural-gas-burning plants on standby tacks on 1.7 cents per kWh. Then the extra fuel that these plants need adds another .6 cents per kWh. Then add about 2.7 cents per kWh for new transmission lines and transmission losses. All that gets the cost up to 13.2 cents per kWh."

     

    http://onforb.es/12FwDDv

     

    The energy utopian bubbles are popped. The focus should be what works now, and not jump to what some think is the end technology before it's ready.

     

    On a related note, I saw a Model S. It was the same place I first saw a Volt in the wild, Costco. Costco has good prices on generators.
    21 Dec 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Since holiday weekends are particularly good for complex articles that tie a lot of themes together, I've just posted a fairly long article titled "How The Micro-hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market" on altenergystocks. With any luck it will be published on SA tomorrow or Monday in time for the holiday break.
    22 Dec 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Great article John. It is very straight forward in defining the needs of the automobile industry and laying out the case for the generation 3.0 lead acid battery (PbC). With many of the lithium companies failing, Exide and JCI admitting the need for a better battery, and your educational articles, we should soon see the tide turn towards Axion's PbC. Axion has positioned itself at the edge of commercial development just as all these other factors are coming together. And all of these companies who have built AGM capacity have been playing right along with Axion's game plan! Awesome! I hope TG is getting ready to order some more carbon electrode lines.

     

    http://bit.ly/WE3wRv
    22 Dec 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I'm particularly encouraged that all these trends are coming together at the same time that the PbC has advanced from fascinating R&D project to serious contender. It's really fun to take themes that I've touched on in a half-dozen different articles and weave them together into a clearer picture of where the industry is and where the trends are pointing. Exciting times.
    22 Dec 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Amen! Great article, John.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Amen, again.

     

    The "exciting times" however include the PbC "Cliff". We need a serious, damage-free, savior to bridge that gap from here thru Q12013, and into Q3-42013.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    Your vocabulary in describing the battery situation has become crystal clear. My hat is off to you.

     

    It took me a long time to develop concrete concepts that teach complex ideas, when I decided to write a book that taught how people work and why they defeat themselves.

     

    Once I learned that the issue was communication, not my ability to see things clearly, my ability to communicate in ways that were as succinct and they were persuasive continued to grow. I see that progress in you.

     

    I've read your work since the beginning, and your confidence in communicating what you know is really coming through. My bet is that your future articles will continue to grow in authority and clarity.

     

    You have spent countless hours thinking all of this through. I believe in your analysis: my children and grand children will be helped. JP, thank you.
    22 Dec 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Mother was an English professor and I had the benefit of a parochial school education in the sixties, so I've always written well. The four and a half years I've devoted to this blog have been a priceless education in communicating well, which is an entirely different art.

     

    In the past I'd write in a feedback free world where I never had the ability to gauge how much of what I wrote was understood by my target audience. Now when I write on a topic, particularly if its a topic that draws a lot of comment, the feedback is instantaneous and crystal clear.

     

    If I communicate better today its because you and all the other active commenters had the patience to teach me. Its a precious gift and I'm profoundly grateful to everybody who's contributed.
    22 Dec 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for the article. Great as always. (Just a quick note before your transfer it to the next forum, there is a typo in the last table I think, 10% vs 15%).

     

    Wanted to ask a question on the financing side. Let's say your thoughts about the timing of when PbC might make it into an automotive application are correct with 2014 cy being the highest probability ( I happen to think you're right.). And let's suppose that BMW needs about 6 months to complete a field trial. Well that brings us basically into S1 2013 for Axion to have partner agreements in place to support a 2015 my launch. And really, to be realistic, I can tell you why TG started talking in public about a partner when he did in 2012. Timing is getting tight for a comfortable roll out. The program needs quite a bit of time to be able to validate the added capacity for automotive. I'm guessing at least a year and most probably more.

     

    So theorizing the timing laid out above, feel free to adjust or add additional thoughts, would it make sense for anyone with an interest in partnering to jump before an added float of stock for Axions funding needs? Or does it not really matter because the value of Axion would just be plus the added cash on hand and the added ownership would not matter much?

     

    Hope this is clear and if not I can elaborate.
    22 Dec 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I also think that JP's due diligence articles have gotten better and better, IMO.

     

    A next step I'd like to read about, and it is even tougher than fleshing out the addressable PbC mkt has been, is more info on what the end-users and battery manufacturers REALLY think about the PbC. In auto, the only direct info that I'm aware of is Ford's comments at the recent ELBC and just beforehand, which I interpreted as them saying, "not for us for Gen 1.0 s/s, but we like it for Gen 2.0, but even then we're not going to be first." In rail, I think NS directly said PbC beat out a long list of competitors, but maybe that was TG saying that.

     

    Other than that, we've got no direct info for the big mkts, just some inferred. Big due dilly hole. REALLY tough nut to crack, I'd think, as the end users and manufacturers are very secretive, but just maybe it's possible to make some headway. Axionistas have been impressively resourceful in their investigations before.
    22 Dec 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks Iindelco. It's wonderful to have sharp eyed friends who catch my errors early.

     

    My dream scenario for an automaker would be a testing program that started in January with a small model-line production launch penciled in for September – small enough that the OEM would have a high degree of confidence in Axion's ability to make the batteries. That would give the market the 'news item' it needs so badly so that Axion wouldn't be out trying to raise expansion capital in a news vacuum.

     

    When it comes to cutting a deal with a manufacturing partner, I think its much more likely that the partner would pay the lions share of the cost of building a jointly owned electrode plant near the partner's battery plant. While there may also be some money for Axion in that kind of a deal, the bulk of the money would go to facilities and Axion would get a "carried" interest without paying its proportional share.

     

    I'm in full agreement that the time is ripe for management to be talking with potential partners, but those negotiations will be done under a triple secret dome of silence and we won't even hear rumors of rumors before something is inked.
    22 Dec 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, " In rail, I think NS directly said PbC beat out a long list of competitors, but maybe that was TG saying that."

     

    No it was in a couple of NS documents that I know have been posted here. One was from Gibson Barbee and the other from Gerhard Thelen VP operations. They have tested deep cycle AGM, the Ultrabattery, lithium ion, and if I recall correctly Nimh along with the PbC. Gerhard Thelen blew some praise Axion's way.
    22 Dec 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Trying to get information from OEMs is worse than pulling teeth and one of the first things the top level guys do is make sure you're not going to quote them. At Batteries 2012 I managed to snag Ted Miller, Ford's Senior Manager of Energy Storage and Materials Strategy and Research. He's a great guy and I learned a lot from him, but you'll never hear me attribute anything to him. Frankly I've been around long enough to figure that nothing says love like a purchase order.
    22 Dec 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, Your perspective on utilizing a lower volume niche vehicle early in the roll out is spot on. The automakers do this frequently to limit their risk. And since it's new and improved it's an audience that appreciates it first.

     

    As for your "triple secret cone of silence" I'll bite. No wonder negotiations are taking so long. ;))

     

    http://bit.ly/TL8586
    22 Dec 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Nothing says like like some positive news.
    22 Dec 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
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    >JP ... I have to wonder how far down the road Johnson Controls is on their Li/LAB device. It is a new device to the engineering world much as the PbC is and a solution needs to be in-place somewhere in the timeframe of 2017-18. They talk like it is still in the lab phase and probably not in the hands of an OEM ... but who knows. I wonder if JCI can get into a design win quicker than Axion.
    22 Dec 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • grobertson1
    , contributor
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    John Petersen your article is interesting. Thank you. But there seem to be major issues of importance you fail to address. For example,

     

    You are aware JCI recently came out and clearly reported (in writing) " Micro Hybrid applications will require a “non-lead-acid” energy storage solution. " . And JCI followed with a conference reporting future vehicle demands are simply too much for the lead acid varieties. JCI spoke about future design/demand. This is more than 2 years after the 2012 BMW Axion Istanbul report. So I imagine JCI based their opinion on that Istanbul report, but also on an additional two years of testing.

     

    I understand that JCI is not only aware of the PbC battery, but if I recall correctly Axion even tested the JCI AGM battery for JCI. JCI likely has quite a bit of testing and other documentation regarding the Axion PbC battery, well more information and documentation than we will ever be privy to. I am sure JCI has access to and understands the Axion DOE applications (you are aware the DOE turned down the Axion grant in 2011) as well attended many conferences, even sponsored some in the last few years.

     

    You are also aware that recently Johnson Controls sought to acquire A123's automotive assets out of bankruptcy for $251 million jointly with Japan's NEC. So these are very experienced corporations seeking to acquire technology for micro-hybrid and willing to spend considerable sums of money to do so.

     

    If true JCI then knows of the Axion Battery, has tested with Axion, and not only reports "Micro Hybrid applications will require a “non-lead-acid” energy storage solution" they get together with NEC and put a $ 251 million dollar bid on AONE assets.

     

    If actions speak louder than words, JCI not only spoke, they acted, they were willing to pay $ 251 million for lithium.

     

    If Axion PbC is a " lead-acid solution" to the Micro Hybrid solutions, why would JCI say a non lead-acid solution is necessary and attempt to buy a lithium solution ?

     

    If JCI thought there was any chance of Axion PbC being competitive for Micro Hybrid or being what they needed, why wouldn't JCI place a 60 million dollar bid for Axion, or why wouldn't JCI and NEC get together and approach Axion. Or at least invest 20 million into Axion. They will pay $ 251 million for AONE but not invest $ 20 million in Axion ?

     

    Please don't tell me because Tom Granville turned them down.
    We all know if a company comes in and offers twice the current market cap, the board and offering company would not keep that a secret.
    22 Dec 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
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    DRich> At this year's ELBC BMW talked about preliminary work they've been doing with dual battery systems that use lead-acid for the engine systems and lithium-ion for hotel loads. (http://bit.ly/VZtF7s) It's fascinating work, but very preliminary. BMW also took pains to point out that its also very expensive.

     

    JCI is a big dog in the battery industry and I have to believe that they'll have an easier time navigating performance and validation testing than Axion because they've been down that road before. They won't, however, be able to avoid the process on a change as serious as using an entirely different battery chemistry and changing many major systems to 42 volts.

     

    grobertson> At their recent strategic review JCI came right out and admitted that they can't make a good enough lead-acid battery for micro-hybrids, which is why they're promoting a dual-device lead and lithium solution.

     

    The fact that JCI can't make a good enough lead-acid battery for micro-hybrids says nothing about whether the PbC from Axion is good enough. While JCI is no doubt aware of the PbC's existence, it doesn't have any rights to use the technology.

     

    The fact that JCI is talking about a lead and lithium combination in their public meetings tells us very little about what their actual strategy is. They may be saying that lead-acid isn't good enough, but they're building AGM plants at a breakneck pace and AGM batteries won't be necessary for the dual device system they're proposing. So which should we believe, their words or their actions? I think the actions speak louder.

     

    BMW certainly thought the PbC was good enough in 2010 and its work on the PbC continued unabated. They've recently completed their in-house testing and sent their results to an independent third party for peer review. The next logical step is fleet testing and we won't know about that until it happens or doesn't happen.

     

    JCI is in a funny position when it comes to lithium-ion batteries. The got the headline $300 million ARRA battery manufacturing grant in 2009 and built a factory that's reportedly running on empty. They ended up dissolving the JCI Saft joint venture because they believed automotive was a dead-end and wanted to branch out into stationary, commercial and other markets. They're clearly casting about trying to find something worthwhile to do with all that capacity.

     

    I'm still puzzled over the A123 theatre. The proposed sale to Wanxiang was a political hot potato in the run up to a close election. JCI submitted a bid of $125 million and Wanxiang upped the ante. When the dust settled in the bankruptcy court Wanxiang had beaten JCI's bid by a mere $1 million. If JCI had really wanted those assets, I can't see that a million bucks would be a deal breaker.

     

    The most fascinating aspect of all is that the combined lithium-ion production capacity of JCI and A123 wouldn't be enough batteries to make a dent in the micro-hybrid market. Between the two plants there's enough capacity to make a two or three million micro-hybrid batteries per year, less than 10% of forecast 2017 demand. To do that, however, both plants would have to abandon all their other product lines and focus exclusively on micro-hybrids.

     

    The great thing about the micro-hybrid market is that it will include 40 million cars a year ranging from the simplest stop-start to the most complex heavy micro-hybrid. With an average battery value in the $300 to $500 range, each point of market share represents $100 million in revenue. Axion doesn't need to dominate the market. All it needs is a credibly competitive product for a meaningful segment of the market. There's plenty of room in this particular horse race and it's not a winner take all event.
    23 Dec 2012, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... " ... it's not a winner take all event" seems to be a very hard concept for investors to grasp.
    23 Dec 2012, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
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    I'm not sure why, but the human mind always seems to focus on the "killer app" or the "silver bullet" solution instead of realizing that those concepts don't have much meaning in the battery industry.

     

    We all have energy storage needs, but most of our needs are pretty mundane. Even if we're exceptionally intelligent, sophisticated and urbane as individuals, we're probably pretty average when it comes to our energy storage needs.

     

    For several years the market has focused on lithium because it has some pretty extraordinary capabilities for the 2+ Sigma market segment that needs that kind of performance. What nobody stops to think about is that 95% of the business will be done in the 2- Sigma segment where the ultimate gee-whiz performance would be wasted.

     

    If you look 40 years of lead-acid battery history, AGM has always been viewed as technically superior to flooded, but until a couple years ago AGM didn't represent more than a couple percent of the market because people didn't need the incremental performance and weren't willing to pay for it.

     

    Today the market is rapidly evolving and the average Joe is going to need more than AGM but less than lithium-ion. From everything I can tell the PbC fits nicely into that economic sweet spot.
    23 Dec 2012, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Great article John.

     

    Do you have any thoughts about what the great build-out of AGM capacity means for the future of the AGM line if it is only suitable for light micros? I guess Exide already has in mind schemes like the Maxwell connection ... But it would seem market planning for 2020 might already be making the AGM somewhat obselete.

     

    It could be analogous to the great li-on build out great in some niche applications but not suitable for the entire market. Unless of course a negative electrode were added to the mix.
    22 Dec 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The build out of AGM manufacturing capacity is by definition the build out of PbC manufacturing capacity. Axion will have to overcome a lot if NIH thinking but if the automakers demand the product and Axion is willing to sell electrode assemblies as components, the owners of the AGM capacity will ultimately do the sensible thing.
    22 Dec 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    "The build out of AGM manufacturing capacity is by definition the build out of PbC manufacturing capacity. "

     

    Is that necessarily so? Could that same capacity be used for Ultracaps?
    22 Dec 2012, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, No. The AGM capacity is specific to AGM, PbC and maybe the Ultrabattery. Ultracap format is an entirely different platform.
    22 Dec 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883)