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  • Axion Power Concentrator 192: Dec. 30: Latest News 285 comments
    Dec 30, 2012 10:28 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC -- Sliderocket of John Petersen's presentation at the ELBC.

    Dr. Ender's Dickinson's Presentation on Axion's PbC -- Link to his slideshow at the 13th ELBC.

    Axion Power's 3rd Quarter Report and Press Release -- Seeking Alpha also published the transcript of the conference call here.

    RoseWater Joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study -- Testing will determine the effects of residential energy storage systems on local power grids.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated thru 12/28/12)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Activity:

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    Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (285)
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  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    Awesome. Drich you better get your trigger finger ready. Follower 200 will be up in no time.
    30 Dec 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    drat & congrats

     

    Happy New Year!
    30 Dec 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >jakurtz ... I keep an eye out. We actually lost one last week.
    30 Dec 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    jakurtz, I already tried to PM the APH to see if I could bribe my way into some insider info. to gain advantage on Concentrator 200.

     

    What does "nein" mean again? ;)
    30 Dec 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm..

     

    Maybe a sign of dyslexic numerology?
    30 Dec 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Third
    30 Dec 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Also ran 8-(
    30 Dec 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (426) | Send Message
     
    Sigh!
    30 Dec 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    ????
    30 Dec 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Hello my friends:

     

    The last APC of 2012? I belived.

     

    In my opinion it was a difficult year for the market price of AXION POWER, but exuberant in developing its technology.

     

    2013 will be: exuberant in price and technology.

     

    FELIZ AÑO PARA TODOS-Carlos.

     

    .
    30 Dec 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    JP: When I read this story, I thought of you and your prediction of how people will eventually "move closer to work." It's probably not hard for you to guess which US city this is, still home to 9 Fortune 500 companies, experiencing all time record highs of both commercial rent and occupancy rates, as well as adding significant commercial square footage, all mixed in with an expanding residential population of both young professionals and the retired.

     

    Makes me smile:

     

    http://bit.ly/UfDKgw
    30 Dec 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think it has to happen in time, particularly among people who realize that their time is the most valuable thing wasted in a commute, and for that matter in an office where distractions are far too plentiful.
    30 Dec 2012, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Timely story Maya. This seems to be a shift playing out all over the country. The three downtowns that I most familiar with Tampa, St. Petersburg and St. Louis are all going through similar transformations.
    30 Dec 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    When you described I thought you were speaking about Austin, TX (they probably have more than nine fortune 500's). Good to see positive news about cities like Pittsburgh...come on Cleveland.
    30 Dec 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    YEAR 2013 FORECAST:

     

    -.PbC technology will find its niche application in the three segments of Micro-Hybrid vehicles: Light, Medium and Heavy.
    -.The AGM technology only find an applications in motorcycles and ATVs, because these vehicles do not have to support Hotel-Loads. In Micro-Hybrid vehicles only with AXION POWER PbC.
    -.JCI will find to AXION POWER with your partner to cover the White segment.
    -. Because of this the price of EXIDE market plummets to $ 1.50
    -.BMW starts and ends in record time the Test Fleet. Place first order for PbC Tech. batteries.
    -. Others automakers begin the fleet test with PbC.
    -.Is received the license to market the HUB and start orders.
    -.NSC begins and orders more PbC batteries for use in others locos.
    -.Continuous operation successfully Power Cube installed in New Castle. Received other orders, including one the 1MW.
    -.EPOWER: Eight more trucks-8 are conditioned for a total of 10 in the USA operating correctly.
    -.Ten beautiful trucks are packed with APU and operating correctly.
    -.El precio de la acción termina el año 2013 en $2.50
    -.The share price closed the year 2013 at $ 2.50
    -.John Petersen is recognized worldwide as an expert on batteries.

     

    Accept other predictions-Carlos
    30 Dec 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: "expert on batteries" would be more accurate, I think, if it said "expert on battery industry".

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: Here's my "hopium" 2013 forecast:

     

    H -- Having BMW go forward with fleet testing in 1Q/2Q 2013
    O -- Orders, as in plural orders, from Norfolk Southern
    P -- Private placement goes off after a significant announcement
    I -- Investment house buys millions of AXPW long shares
    U -- UL listing is granted to Rosewater; orders follow forthwith
    M -- Money! We all see our portfolios rise far faster than the S&P
    30 Dec 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1959) | Send Message
     
    That post Maya must be why I subconsciously and preemptively wrote "awesome" at the beginning of this APC.
    30 Dec 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    My hopium wish for the year is that TG figures out how to again effectively promote the company with investors.

     

    He clearly had the ability to attract Blackrock and others before, I believe and hope he can do so again.
    30 Dec 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    My 2013 PbC prognostications

     

    -- NSC takes delivery (possibly in Dec. '12) of PbCs ordered for NS999, places order for OTR batteries early in 2013. Follow-on battery order for 2nd yardswitcher locomotive in 2H.
    -- Batteries for BMW fleet testing are shipped. Asian auto OEM orders small lot of PbCs for field trial;
    -- 4MWh of batteries for PowerCubes are supplied;
    -- 24kW PbC batteries sold for Truck OEM APU; aftermarket APU OEM adopts PbCs;
    -- 25 HUBs sold in 2nd half;
    -- ePower Engine systems orders PbCs in early Jan. for a second class 8 truck (80% of 1st order). Batteries (126) for three more truck re-builds are ordered before end-Feb. 20 additional truck conversions by end-June. 75 truck conversions in H2.

     

    > 10K PbC batteries sold in 2013.
    30 Dec 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    H.T. Love

     

    That is correct and better: "expert on battery industry".

     

    Thanks-Carlos
    30 Dec 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Would like to hear Axion courting Ameresco for this project.

     

    http://bit.ly/WTBkGy

     

    Ameresco, Inc.: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard Microgrid and Ancillary Services

     

    Demonstration Site: Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, ME

     

    Description: This project is integrating a battery energy storage system and microgrid control system with existing on-site power generation assets. This integrated technology will assure power quality delivery to critical loads when islanded from the utility grid and enable implementation of fast load shed schemes should the base choose to participate in the ancillary services markets. Net energy costs will be reduced due to revenues (which may come in the form of credits to utility bills) from the provision of Ancillary Services to the ISO-NE grid.
    30 Dec 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Ameresco seems to have a pretty big worldwide reach in the markets Axion seeks to serve.

     

    http://bit.ly/VQ3Be9

     

    Ameresco, Inc. is a leading independent provider of comprehensive energy efficiency and renewable energy solutions for facilities throughout North America, delivering long-term value through innovative systems, strategies and technologies. Ameresco's solutions range from upgrades to facility's energy infrastructure to the development, construction and operation of renewable energy plants combined with tailored financial solutions. We work with customers on both sides of the meter to reduce operating expenses, upgrade and maintain facilities, stabilize energy costs, improve occupancy comfort levels, increase energy reliability and enhance the environment.

     

    The Company was founded in 2000 by George Sakellaris, a pioneer in the energy service business. To best serve its wide-ranging clientele, Ameresco has regional offices located throughout North America. With dedicated energy and business professionals with years of experience and strong commitment to customer satisfaction and service, Ameresco offers you the resources needed to successfully plan, execute and even finance the energy program that will create real, sustained economic and operating benefits to fulfill your unique requirements.
    30 Dec 2012, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    My last post on Ameresco. It seems to be a pretty interesting company focused on saving businesses money through energy conservation and energy efficiency measures that pay for themselves. (similar to Viridity?) However, it does not appear that they have an energy storage angle.

     

    "Ameresco will also assist customers in obtaining third-party financing for the cost of constructing the facility improvements, resulting in little or no upfront capital expenditure by the customer. [So, the suggestion that these contracts don't require up-front capital isn't really true]"

     

    http://bit.ly/Vk4o8J

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The ability to provide PowerCube's to end users with no upfront cost that pay for themselves through ancillary services income would be a boon for Axion.
    30 Dec 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    Article I would recommend regarding investing in Ameresco:
    http://onforb.es/TsIH8w
    31 Dec 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    D Lane -

     

    Interesting. While I take no position on Ameresco's stock one way or another, I do take a position on having every Ameresco sales person quoting PowerCubes into the heavy deal flow that they see - 600-700M next year.

     

    I appreciate the Rosewater and Viridity relationships, but still waiting for the first sale.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    George Sakellaris ( http://bit.ly/UhOKdf ) should be Axion's BFF.
    31 Dec 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Looks like they have relationships to offer LABS for storage.

     

    http://bit.ly/Uj7uuB

     

    MK covers the US and Europe

     

    Rolls covers Canada

     

    Narada for the Asia Pacific region

     

    http://bit.ly/RrJ1EI

     

    http://bit.ly/Uj7smp

     

    http://bit.ly/RrIYsq
    1 Jan 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Interesting DD, iindelco. I looked on Ameresco's main pages for a battery/storage component and could not find one. Although with all the solar they are installing, it didn't make sense not to have something.
    1 Jan 2013, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    My friends, this is the year when it either happens, or it doesn't.
    30 Dec 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    But it's gonna. ;)
    30 Dec 2012, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    20 MW flywheel project for frequency regulation in PJM.

     

    Cost is $52M or $2.6M per MW ... doesn't seem to be cost effective when compared to 1MW of frequency reg from a PowerCube at about $1M per MW.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/TVzgkh

     

    "The plant will provide a response time of less than four seconds to frequency changes."

     

    It would also seem that the PC is able to respond quicker than a flywheel.
    30 Dec 2012, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    This appears to be the continuation of the Beacon Project that they had approval for before they went into BK and were bought by a small PE shop that mostly own Nat Gas peaker plants.

     

    At the time they went into BK this project was on the books with a similar 1:1 matching ($24k from DOE/$24M from Beacon/$10M from PA.

     

    The key when you look at the costs is that the flywheels should have a longer useful life than batteries. It will be interesting to see if they can fix their quality issues that plagued Beacon at their facility in NY. They had 2 flywheels fail withing 6 months of commissioning. I'm surprised by this delay as its basically been a year since the BK and it they still don't have the flywheels produced.
    30 Dec 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Info on the UltraBattery 3MW frequency regulation.
    DOE supported.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/10Cc10x

     

    http://tinyurl.com/bhl...

     

    http://bit.ly/Vkf8UG

     

    see slide 19 - referring generically to PbC testing.
    30 Dec 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Somebody made a mistake on that slide 19.

     

    The slide labels the graph as 'PbC Testing at Sandia' but the graph is actually for Ultrabattery testing. The Ultrabattery can wish but it is NOT the PbC!

     

    D
    31 Dec 2012, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Stefan:

     

    -.See slide 47 is referring to: Advanced Lead Carbon
    -.Read the summary seems interesting. Slide 66 & 67
    -.Storage is everywhere, why does US power grid have so little?
    -.Storage delivers power when needed just as Transmission delivers where needed (Dr. Imre Gyuk)
    -. Think of storage like memory on a computer
    .One size does not fit all
    .Several different types are needed
    .Use the right tool for the job
    -.Think of grid storage like a batteries on a hybrid car
    -.Better fuel usage, less emissions
    -.Microgrids benefit from storage for stability
    -.Use project ROI or IRR instead of $/kW and $/kWh as a cost metric.
    -.Storage should be treated like a renewable resource
    30 Dec 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Carlos - I noticed that just as I was leaving to catch a movie. It seems there is a lot of good stuff in there.

     

    btw: Jack Reacher is the first good Tom Cruise movie that I have seen in a long time.
    30 Dec 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Again slide 47

     

    Advanced Lead Carbon

     

    LEAD-CARBON
    A Game changer for Alternative Energy Storage

     

    Evolving technology for lead-acid batteries uses Carbon in the battery which allows for increased cycles:
    • <1000 for traditional, >4000 for Lead Carbon Grid Applications: Primarily a power (<15 min) battery but testing being done to utilize in energy (>1hr) applications
    •Renewable integration, Frequency Regulation

     

    It seems important to the following:
    ...but testing being done to utilize in energy (>1hr) applications.
    30 Dec 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Thought some people might be interested in this - Sandia Report that came out two weeks ago on attempting to calculate the maximum revenue potential as an upper bound on the value of storage between arbitrage and regulation.

     

    Will probably take me some time to look at b/c its 65 pages.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/VkX50C
    30 Dec 2012, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I can save you some time Stefan. The A123 installation at Tehachapi cost $53.5 million.

     

    http://bit.ly/YE0OHi

     

    The maximum modeled regulation revenue returns were $926,000 in 2010 and $1,288,000 in 2011, resulting in an ROI of about 2% excluding operating costs, maintenance, interest and depreciation.

     

    The modeled arbitrage numbers were really bad.

     

    EPIC ECONOMIC FAIL.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Lol, I figured you would do that.

     

    I also found another interesting presentation. I have been wondering how big the frequency regulation market is or will be and Slide 7 attempts to quantify it for CAISO at different levels of renewable integration.

     

    Slide 26 is still pushing the UB graph with only 15,000 cycles in PSOC.

     

    http://bit.ly/UeqWIQ
    31 Dec 2012, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The link is busted.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    How about now?

     

    http://tinyurl.com/au3...

     

    Title is:

     

    Securing Our Renewable Energy Future with
    Storage
    31 Dec 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Got it! Reading.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Three to four percent seems to be the range most are targeting, but even with pay for performance premiums of a couple hundred percent the Tehachapi project would be hard to justify with costly batteries.

     

    The trick will be aggregating as many values as possible for a particular system and it looks like behind the meter will be better at that task than dedicated single use systems.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    That's why I was struck by the Ameresco model. They seem to already have significant expertise at aggregating energy value. Frequency regulation would appear to me to be a natural extension of what they are already doing.
    31 Dec 2012, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: What caught my eye immediately was "Temperature rise in Ultrabattery® modules required reducing current for further testing" on the "Sandia National Laboratories testing: Ultrabattery® performs much longer than VRLA" page. Note that 0.4C-0.3C rate there.

     

    I don't recall any such problem even postulated for the PbC.

     

    That would've benefited the stability of results shown.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I noticed that as well and while I have never seen that type of reference to Axion, I have seen this chart for the UB before.

     

    Its also interesting to note that two different versions of the UB were cycled at 300A and 400A.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The important thing to remember is that they were testing huge cells rated at 1000 Ah, as opposed to a 70 Ah rating for the PbC.

     

    Putting a 400 amp current into a 1,000 Ah battery is 0.4C while putting a 210 amp current into a 70 Ah PbC is 3.0C.

     

    Amps of charging current are only meaningful in reference to the amp hour capacity of the battery.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    JP: Sounds like a future PbC 1,000 Ah cell would be winner, huh?

     

    :-))

     

    I assume the DCA rate would scale along with capacity if ratios of Pb to C and all other factors remained unchanged? ... Maybe to simplistic a view though?

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the refresher -

     

    I remember looking at this about a year ago describing C rates.
    http://bit.ly/sH1E3E

     

    So would the discharge time of the 1000Ah UB at .4C be about 2.5 hours and the discharge time for the 70Ah PbC at 3.0C be about a twenty minutes?

     

    Since the PowerCube is made up of the small PbC batteries, what implication does that have for speed of response between the two batteries?
    31 Dec 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Axion doesn't have the capacity to make the monster 1,000 Ah cells that East Penn makes for renewable and industrial applications. While the PbC should scale well in theory, I don't know whether that theory has been tested outside the relatively limited battery size range the New Castle plant can handle.

     

    Stefan> Your C rate calculations are correct but I don't have a deep enough technical background to say whether larger cells have different response times than small ones. I don't think they should behave differently, but I can't say for certain.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3089) | Send Message
     
    There is generally only a minor difference between ten 100 amp batteries and one 1000 battery. There are some losses due to the increase in connections, and string equalization can sometimes be an issue.

     

    As one grows to thousands of batteries, the connection losses become significant. If/when the Powercube become an actively sold product, I would expect Axion to develop 1000 amp or larger batteries.

     

    The "small" 30HT batteries are a good starting point for testing in many applications.
    31 Dec 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone seen a response time linked to the UB?
    I found it interesting that I have not seen one and this promotional brochure for their PJM installation did not mention one.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/ZPFDrS
    31 Dec 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't expect response time differences to be a major competitive selling point that differentiates one product from another, partiicularly when you recognize that part of the response time difference is electromechanical rather than electrochemical. Since I've never seen a battery system with a response time of more than a second, I tend to believe 400 milliseconds is not vastly superior to 600 or even 800 milliseconds in most applications.
    31 Dec 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "Since I've never seen a battery system with a response time of more than a second, I tend to believe 400 milliseconds is not vastly superior to 600 or even 800 milliseconds in most applications."

     

    Interesting. However, it will be a part of the accuracy performance score, which I would like to find out how UB compares to Axion's 92/93.

     

    The performance score is a weighted average of a resource’s response based on accuracy, timeliness and precision.

     

    What do you see as potential differentiators for the frequency regulation application?
    31 Dec 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    That's what I thought, too, Stephan. Response time is important, even vital, especially from a ROI standpoint involving a PowerCube under the new FERC regulations.

     

    I may be wrong due to being away for a stretch, and I'd have to go back to check, but I believe the PbC's accuracy performance score was even better, somewhere between 96 and 97.
    31 Dec 2012, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> it's clear that response time is important under the pay for performance rules and a one second battery will fare much better than a three minute turbine. I'm just not sure whether they parse superior performance times down to the milliseconds.

     

    If somebody knows better that would be great. I'm just not sure we can assume that one battery's modest speed advantage over another will make a significant difference in the performance score.
    31 Dec 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    JP: I guess we should drill down again and revisit how important response time is. My recollection from the PowerCube unveiling, as well as the most recent SC, was that the fast response time offers the PbC a considerable edge over slower response times, such as diesle generators or flywheels offer.

     

    As I recall, the PbC can begin delivering power at a 50 millisecond response rate, far faster than most energy storage systems, especially when some systems take as long as 4 minutes to begin delivering power into the grid.

     

    That ability to quickly deliver, or take on excess power, is almost certainly why Viridity Energy was at the unveiling of the Cube. While I stood inside the PowerCube with Enders during my last trip, I could hear the Cube taking on power, and then shifting to delivering power, sometimes every thirty seconds or so.

     

    All this still remains pretty muddy to me, but I'm pretty sure fast response time conjoined wiith the new FERC regulations, is very important to the PowerCube offering a return on investment somewhere in the 1.5 year area. I do need to have the ROI in 1.5 years reverified, though.

     

    Too bad we still have over 100 days to ask TG this question.
    31 Dec 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    JP: "I'm just not sure we can assume that one battery's modest speed advantage over another will make a significant difference in the performance score." I agree at this point no assumptions can be made, but I want to figure out a way to compare battery assets for this application.

     

    So far, the only information that I have been able to glean for response times is a continuum of:

     

    Response Times:
    Beacon flywheel: under 4 seconds
    Xtreme lithium titanate: under 1 second
    Axion: 50 milliseconds and 92/93 accuracy score.

     

    I sent in an foia request on the 3MW UB grant application today.

     

    Maya: The Axion score I recall was 92.6.
    31 Dec 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I know that speed is ultra-important for things like power backup in data centers and the like, but I think that once you get out into the grid the benefits of 1 second vs 240 seconds are more important than the benefits of .1 seconds vs .5 seconds. I'll be delighted to learn that it's more important than I think it might be.
    31 Dec 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "Amps of charging current are only meaningful in reference to the amp hour capacity of the battery. "

     

    Thanks for that info, JP.
    31 Dec 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Good presentation comparing the slow ramping frequency regulation vs. fast ramping regulation. See slides 7-13.

     

    http://bit.ly/Vrq6YG

     

    The idea is that the faster the asset the faster regulation can be brought under control and then less amount of MW are needed for total regulation. Slide 7.

     

    Previously, slow responding and fast responding assets were paid the same amount for their capacity, but not for their actual performance or mileage. For example, if both a fast and slow responding asset were rated at 1MW, and the slow responder was able to provide regulation of 8 MW and the fast responder 25MW, they were still compensated at the same rate despite the fast responder providing more than 3 times the regulation or mileage. Slide 8.

     

    The new system will have a two part payment: 1) Capacity Payment and 2) Performance Payment. Slide 11

     

    Slide 12 shows the different variations of the RTO/ISO rules that are beginning to take shape.

     

    Slide 13 shows an pre 755 payment scheme and a post 755 payment scheme with the two part payment.

     

    This is more a rhetorical question at this point b/c I am not sure we have enough data to have an answer.

     

    As we were discussing yesterday, we know that there is a difference between slow and fast responding frequency regulation assets. However, when it comes to lithium titanate, flywheels, UB, PowerCube, etc how will it breakdown? I hope to see the PowerCube come down not only in the lower cost category of fast responding frequency regulation assets, but also in the superior performance category.

     

    As of yet, this remains to be determined.
    1 Jan 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Stephan: Great find - provides one of the clearest examples, I think, of exactly what FERC-755 is trying to accomplish and how it might work, generally.

     

    Would've been nice if the PC trial for PJM would've been in there - can't have everything I guess. I wonder if Axion has joined the association. Maybe that's why they aren't included. Maybe a later version will include behind-the-meter assets as well - that would be huge.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Stephan. Great find! I agree with HTL in that I'm a little clearer now of how two forms of payment will exist, even if I'm still far from grasping how these payments will work out. We need an enigma decoding machine to figure out what's behind the FERC cloak.

     

    Thanks for looking into this...during even a Holiday!
    1 Jan 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Haha, just watching the Rose Bowl playing on my laptop.

     

    Unfortunately, I also came across this presentation which includes a component from Viridity. Slides 12-17 pushes the Septa application, but fails to mention Axion.

     

    http://bit.ly/TFwOea
    1 Jan 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if this has been posted before, but don't recall seeing it before.

     

    Carbon-Enhanced VRLA Batteries
    September 27, 2012

     

    http://1.usa.gov/T3ldSo
    31 Dec 2012, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The problem with so many presentations like this is that they focus on the improvement from a baseline device instead of focusing on the relative degree of progress toward a goal.

     

    In the Banner Battery graph I've used a couple times the carbon additive VRLA's are clear improvements over conventional VRLA, but improvement from abysmally inadequate to grossly inadequate isn't all that impressive to an end user who has needs that must be met.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    As long as the industry keeps patting itself on the back for insignificant gains the important ones will remain elusive.
    31 Dec 2012, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "As long as the industry keeps patting itself on the back for insignificant gains the important ones will remain elusive."

     

    I couldn't agree more. While the industry is becoming more focused, it appears to still be a few years away from economic viability.
    31 Dec 2012, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It all depends on the application. One of the most intriguing ideas I've read over the last month is that commercial and industrial users of storage technologies have a firm grasp of what their needs are and what they're willing to pay while utilities are still struggling with questions of how storage can add value.

     

    The Rosewater project with Queen's University is a great example of the kind of work that needs to be done to determine the "benefits of applying advanced lead acid storage technologies to an electrical grid, evaluating areas such as curtailment, renewable energy integration, new generation deferment, smart grids, power quality and increased reliability."

     

    Each of the benefits is real and significant, but existing utility systems and structures make it hard to quantify and capture the values. That's what makes behind the meter so much easier in the short term.
    31 Dec 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • VictorG45
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    Hello all, this is my first posting.
    I thought some of you would like this link about a hybrid electric aircraft.
    http://bit.ly/10DqxoE

     

    Regards,
    Victor
    31 Dec 2012, 02:38 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Welcome Victor,
    Thanks for sharing. I did find it interesting that Boeing is impressed with "new battery performance".
    Sounded a lot like green PR to me but as long as they are waiting 20 years, what the heck.
    31 Dec 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    The only thing that makes sense about this idea at this time is something like the e-power trucking fleet. Like automobiles and trucks a plane needs a much smaller engine when at cruise vs takeoff and landing. You figure that out and you have a winner. I've long wondered if you could go back to something like a 3 enging setup like a DC-10 and use all three for takeoff and landing but cruise with only 2.
    31 Dec 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10292) | Send Message
     
    As everyone's favorite Elon Musk has pointed out an electric plane could fly at higher altitudes where the atmosphere is thinner, hence less resistance, without concern for oxygen starvation in the propulsion system. A hybrid setup could take the craft to an altitude where the batteries then take over.
    31 Dec 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Good morning Axionistas, A Happy and Prosperous New Year to all!

     

    I wanted to take a moment and share a little. The last three trading days I acquired 167K more shares, basically doubling my count. I can tell you that I never thought the stock price was going to wait around for me to get my 401K money rolled over so I could buy below .30. What I learned was There were few shares that were available below .28 and it was not easy to get my orders filled like it has been in the past. Each day I tried to have the last purchase but Wed and Fri (twice Fri) someone pushed the price back down to end the day. Friday I watched as five 10K orders traded at my BID and I got none. I also missed out on the shares dumped supposedly by ID Thursday morn, I overslept. I did however lower my cost basis from .44 to .37.

     

    I must say it was fun pushing the bid around and watching ADTF jump over me againa and again but IMHO someone is holding AXPW stock price down for whatever reason.
    Thank you all for all your contribution to the APC's this year and I am sure it will continue into the new year. Good luck and great fortune to all Axion believers in the years to come. 8-)
    Kent
    PS Thanks for all your help last week H2L.
    31 Dec 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing your recent experience as a buyer because it tends to confirm my belief that the days of unlimited supply are a thing of the past.
    31 Dec 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    KentG:
    Congratulations, beautiful purchase.
    Feliz Año 2013-Carlos
    31 Dec 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Kent: My pleasure to help.

     

    This quarter I've made 0 trades as I sit on my trading blocks with determined patience, so I may not have access to Power ETrade Pro next quarter as it won't be free any more and I won't pay for a buggy POS that I've been fighting to get them to fix in *many* areas since 2008. I've begun teaching myself Java so I can get the data feed directly, but that will take some time to learn and begin to implement. My plan is to make the results available to all when I get anything useful.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Is the game afoot?

     

    12:52:37 ask of $0.2855 x 47.5K jumps to 247.5K for 17 seconds and then falls back. If the 200K was an ask intended to *never* execute, it's known as "stub quote" and, IIRC, is illegal. I didn't see which MM did it. ATDF was and is the 47.5K though, and also the best bid @ $0.2808 x 10K ATM.

     

    Proving that might be tough though unless it was repeatedly done.

     

    Just be aware though - this may support Kent's thinking that someone wants price held down.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    I also added some trading shares this week.
    Found it impossible to buy below $.28
    Seems like a lot of shares available at $.285- .29
    31 Dec 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • tongas
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Good evening

     

    Long time reader of John Petersen's blog,I have also been through
    a lot of Axion's concentrator posts and comments,all of them being
    very helpful for my decision to invest in this small but promising company .I do not post a lot as my knowledge in battery field is quite close to null,although I learned a lot in theses pages.
    By the way I spent 30 years at sea,and there is no doubt about it my mind,Axion's technology will certainly find some applications in marine field,in a close future.

     

    http://bit.ly/UipqpS
    http://bit.ly/WWatJZ

     

    I do have a lot more of examples of recent hybrids boats being built.

     

    I wanted to thanks everyone on SA Axion's blogs for the huge amount of work done since years,and freely accessible .
    I wish you all the best possible new year,and will have a real pleasure reading you in 2013
    31 Dec 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Tongas: excellent finds!

     

    If you're interested, I have links to two other water-transport "green" efforts, but they don't currently include batteries.

     

    If you're interested, let me know and I'll post links to them.

     

    Thanks for taking the time! It helps everyone here!

     

    HardToLove
    31 Dec 2012, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    Well, my 10k share purchase at 28 cents turned out to be the last trade of the year, with about 15 minutes left in the trading day. There wasn't enough last minute bailing to keep the price below that level, so I pulled the trigger.
    31 Dec 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    OT
    I've been looking at Great Western Minerals Group Ltd (GWMGF) recently. (Again)
    The chart has looked like a falling knife for a few years. (As has nearly all of the Rare Earth sector.)
    They did some thing which looks like it's a very bullish short term sign. (there are a number of medium and long term events as well)
    I can't think of a negative side which sort of scares me but....
    This is why I think you would want so spend some holiday time on it.

     

    GWMG has received TSXV approval for the extension of the expiry date from December 15, 2012 to January 15, 2013 for 41,413,723 Warrants originally issued on October 19, 2010 and having an exercise price of $0.45 per Warrant (see GWMG news release December 6, 2012 ). The exercise price of the Warrants remains unchanged.

     

    http://yhoo.it/UEMeRS

     

    So they went to all the work of extending the (very out of the money, It closed for the year under $.24 Warrants $.45) warrants for one month. Also said they won't ask for another extension.

     

    This appears to be the short term reason

     

    Preliminary Economic Assessment: As noted, the PEA news release scheduled for January 2013 is to include confirmation of estimated capital expenditure requirements for the mine, mixed chloride facility and separation facility, estimated operating expenditures for the fully integrated business model, a new resource estimate and timelines for the next steps in the Steenkampskraal construction process. Significantly, the PEA will enable the Company to publicly discuss financial projections for the fully integrated business model.

     

    The above quote comes from this article. (Which came out today.)
    Great Western Minerals Group corporate update
    http://yhoo.it/130KFzE

     

    One not positive point; Jack Lifton has in the past owned GWMGF but to the best of my knowledge does not at present.

     

    Technology Metals Research llc has a lot of information on rare earths. You will need to know Steenkampskraal is the name of the particular mine site GWMGF is trying to open first.

     

    http://bit.ly/rdl62B

     

    Be careful and do your DD:
    Meet the new investment scam on the block - rare earth metals
    December 5, 2012
    http://bit.ly/130KCUI

     

    Happy New Year all.
    31 Dec 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    froggey77: I have been following Great Western for about four years; been in and out a few times, and was waaaay ahead of when chatterheads like CNBC were yacking up REE companies like Molycorp, thanks in large part to my good SA pal, Optionsgirl.

     

    By far, the best place to learn more about Great Western, and all REE stocks, is tripleblack's fantastic REE Instablog series. There's simply nothing like it on the I-Net. Suggesting for you to check it out:

     

    http://bit.ly/12U2PnO

     

    There's been much discussion regarding GWMGF in this most recent Instablog; Lynas Corp., too.

     

    Last Friday, I noticed GWMGF was down to a juicy 20 cents/share. But I have to do some more DD and charting, before maybe buying back in again. Today, GWMGF was up 18%.
    31 Dec 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3147) | Send Message
     
    Maya

     

    As the whole sector has been going down I haven't had much interest recently. Got out in the spring 2011. Every so often I go back and check. This was a year end what should I do?

     

    It seems Trippleblack is not impressed with the corporate report.

     

    "The delaying tactic with GQD also provides strategic cover for the delays in starting up that construction. The chloride plant construction is simply delayed, though they mention a new plan now in the hands of their contractor.
    One way to look at the GWM mess is to imagine what their situation would be IF Lynas had not fallen into the Malaysian black hole - or if MCP had been managed competently. Only due to their primary competition's failures does GWM appear to have a workable plan.
    I reiterate my view that GWM is seeking a buyer. "

     

    A buyer would pop the stock also.
    31 Dec 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • tongas
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    @H.T Love

     

    This boat belongs to a very old and good friend.The common trip schedule is,10 mn on batteries to leave Marseille old port,then 1 hour 30 cruise on diesel to reach Calanque's Park where batteries are used again for 30/40 mn ;then back.
    If someone is interested I can ask him a short technical memo/feedback.
    What I can say is that there is no saving,return on investment is nil,except being green,mostly due to the cost of electronics/batteries set up.Also the 1hour 30 cruise is not enough to give back the full load.
    Batteries are chemical but do not know wich type.Next time I'll see him I will take notes.
    http://bit.ly/UAfTuA

     

    These boats (x2)are own by another company I know quite well,operating in Porto ,Corsica,France
    http://bit.ly/YIudA5
    http://bit.ly/UAfTuC#
    31 Dec 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Don't know whether this piece has been posted.

     

    2012: The Year of Taxpayer ‘Green’ Waste
    http://bit.ly/Vow9Nv
    31 Dec 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2697) | Send Message
     
    BugEYE: I noticed the funky smell you get when political cronies feed at the trough. Unpleasant.

     

    Thanks for the reference.
    1 Jan 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year All
    31 Dec 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    First on the 1st. Nice try CO3 :-) (at least in my time zone?)

     

    http://bit.ly/ObWEBU
    1 Jan 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    Premature wtb .....
    "missed it by That much"
    Story of my life.
    1 Jan 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this has been shared before

     

    Interested in comments others woud have vis a vis it's potential affect on PBc economic potential

     

    http://bit.ly/Uj7J8R
    1 Jan 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10292) | Send Message
     
    That's awesome, printing graphene on your DVD burner. Certainly looks like a cost effective process that could be scaled up. Inexpensive graphene could bring many advances in many areas.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Graphene is a fascinating material, but energy storage devices require pounds of the stuff as opposed to a thin film burned on a DVD. Since the law of economic gravity has always prevailed in the energy storage sector, cool but costly doesn't impress me much.
    2 Jan 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10292) | Send Message
     
    You really cant make the tiny leap and imagine a continuous linear production line producing large volumes of this stuff at a low cost?
    3 Jan 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    JRP3,
    Im pretty sure that most of the inv estors on this site understand large scale production and economies of scale.
    We also understand that to go from one of the most expensive products on earth (Graphene) to cheap graphine will take several decades and a huge technological change in its production methods.

     

    It is not a product one can invest in now, with any success.
    3 Jan 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    JRP3> I worked as issuer's counsel for the world's very first carbon nanotechnology IPO in 1992. One of my close personal friends (and an Axion director) served as the Executive Director of the Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory at Rice University until Rick Smalley died a couple years ago. In a prior life I dated the first commercial seller of carbon fullerenes to research laboratories.

     

    Carbon nanotechnology is extremely cool, but it's also extremely expensive and it takes forever to drive costs down.

     

    The best commercially available activated carbons from coconut husks have surface areas in the 1,500 to 1,800 sq. meters per CC. Graphene is modestly better - as in a 30% improvement. When you balance incremental performance against incremental cost it will be a miracle if you see anybody using graphene in batteries or large supercapacitors in your lifetime.

     

    Imagination is a wonderful thing for novelists. It's the most dangerous thing in the world for investors.
    3 Jan 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3089) | Send Message
     
    In a vaguely related subject, I worked a while in the diamond (cubic carbon) industry, trying to make synthetic diamond films. It's really hard. Even the big players (GE, deBeers) that have spent many $100s of millions can't make synthetic diamonds commercially effective except for an extremely limited set of niche markets. High quality diamond films should be the ultimate material for microprocessors, with exceptional thermal conductivity and superb semiconductor properties. Still not practical. Only some small amounts of jewelry quality diamonds are made, and they are nearly as expensive as mother nature's.

     

    Manipulating carbon at the nano scale is really, really expensive.
    3 Jan 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    More closely related than you know. The IPO I did for Dr. Schmidt in 1992 was SI Diamond Technology. They were using low temperature carbon vapor deposition to build diamond bonded films on non-diamond substrates including metals and even plastics.

     

    For one road show they put a diamond film on a 3-1/2 floppy disk and invited people to try and scratch the surface. Twenty years later the company is still living on research contracts.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/RuRN4S
    3 Jan 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've been chatting with Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's former CTO, who will hopefully be joining us as a participant. I'll know more a little later tonight but keep your fingers crossed.
    1 Jan 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Fingers and toes are crossed. Just did some reading on Pellion. They seem to be a few years behind Axion as far as bringing their battery to market,
    1 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    I would be awe-struck if that happened. Might need an alteration to the concentratot header(s), going forward, since I presume Dr. Buiel might be consulting at any given time?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know whether Ed has an ongoing consulting relationship with Axion or not, but with his PhD in electrochemistry and his long experience with lithium-ion, lead-carbon and other chemistries, Ed can speak with authority about the strengths and weaknesses of competing technologies, where I have to weasel and butt-cover when I get out of my depth.

     

    He's apparently tried to respond to some of the nonsense on Brand X, but that's about as productive as beating yourself in the head with a ball-peen hammer.
    1 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, That would be a real gift for this group. I hope he can find the time.
    1 Jan 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I agree. The amount of misinformation in this industry is mind boggling and someone that can speak authoritatively on what is technically bs and what is not bs would be a real asset. I hope that KT will eventually find his way back too.
    1 Jan 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'll do a bit of gentle arm twisting.
    1 Jan 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Wouldn't that be great.

     

    John, You're making Santa look like a slacker! :)
    1 Jan 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Think of Ed as KT on steroids, but with the down to earth and clear language of a former Hockey player.
    1 Jan 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    "I'll do a bit of gentle arm twisting."

     

    Might I suggest getting a Wookie to do it for you? ;-)

     

    Happy New Year everyone!
    1 Jan 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    After reading this, I did venture over to BrandX to see what Dr. Buiel had posted. His responses were quite interesting. He seemed completely confused as to why the BrandX board was the way it was and why OMY was making such a big deal over his leaving Axion after the "research" portion of the PbC development was over. Sounded just like a scientist in industry...i.e. the science part was basically done, so I moved on to something new and there were family consideration.
    What I found most interesting was his comments comparing the PbC to supercapacitors and LABs in micro-hybrids. He completely shot down the idea that it made a difference that the PbC doesn't hold as much energy as a standard AGM when he pointed out that there's enough energy in a charged PbC to easily run the car's electrical system for 10 minutes. Everyone keeps talking about start-stop times of a minute or less, and here's Dr. Buiel saying the PbC could run the system for 10 minutes if it needed to!
    2 Jan 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: "Dr. Buiel saying the PbC could run the system for 10 minutes if it needed to!".

     

    And more over, it could do so with little or no noticable loss of lifetime!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I couldn't bring myself to go searching for Ed's comments on Brand X, but think it would be wonderful if we could get him in an environment like this one where the readers are interested in learning what he has to say.

     

    Among other things, I'd love to have somebody who knows both technologies do a real comparison with the Ultrabattery which many around these parts worry about but the more technically adept typed including KT and Ed can explain very quickly.

     

    He could also add a lot more color to the testing and validation process than I ever could.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    To be honest, I doubt you'll get him to post here. Maybe to answer some technical questions, but his comments on BrandX struck me as the comments of a scientist who had worked on a project, saw the "science" part of it go as far as it needed to go, and was ready to move on to a new challenge. As far as he's concerned the PbC is "finished" scientifically, and now everything going forward is just production and marketing, things he's not interested in. I can see you getting him to answer some technical questions, ie what he tried to do with OMY, but when OMY tried to pull him into arguing about the GM grant, oil rigs, or other non-technical issues, he just waved those issues off and stopped responding.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Ed contacted me to ask whether his posts on Brand X might be problematic. He also asked "Is there another discussion group where people are talking about Axion?" When I told him about the Concentrators he said "That is very interesting. I'd be happy to participate. Getting good questions on the Yahoo site. This might be a better source."

     

    I won't be at all surprised to see him focus on technical aspects of the PbC, but his greatest strengths are the areas of my greatest weakness.

     

    I want to talk to Ed first and share my experience with the fine lines former key personnel have to walk in public forums. We tried to schedule a call for last night and he evidently got tied up, but I'll keep trying. On balance, I'm pretty confident that we'll have very technically savvy commenter joining us soon to answer all those thorny technical questions that draw an "I'm not sure" or an "I don't know" from me.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Excellent, John! I'm amazed Ed did not know about the APCs before now.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    "He's apparently tried to respond to some of the nonsense on Brand X, but that's about as productive as beating yourself in the head with a ball-peen hammer."

     

    The posters on Brand X couldn't convince me to get out of a burning car, much less doling out financial advice.
    1 Jan 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3390) | Send Message
     
    Hi Gang,
    Happy New Year to all. Thanks Maya, APH and JP as well as all the other bloggers for keeping this blog going and worthwhile. The scope and depth of info can get my head spinning at times. Thanks all.
    1 Jan 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, no predictions yet? OK, I'll go out on a limb... Patience will show its value in 2013. -- JP will write at least another article or two. -- APC Followers will double in number.
    1 Jan 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if this was already posted.

     

    How About 99.9 Percent Renewables?

     

    " To approximate a grid operator’s real world imperative to keep the lights on, the researchers modeled into RREEOM the PJM Interconnection system, a thirteen-state load that accounts for about 20 percent of U.S. electricity demand at approximately $0.1745 per kilowatt-hour.

     

    The transmission model was limited to PJM’s grid and ignored reserve requirements, within-hourly fluctuations and ramp rates, all of which, it assumed, would be easily met with the hypothesized storage."

     

    http://bit.ly/10KoOOw
    1 Jan 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3089) | Send Message
     
    Well, we gotta start the year with some hallucinations...http://bit.ly/10KoOOw

     

    1) We are gonna build out renewables to 290% of need. [Uh, that is 216 GW of power. A nuclear power plant is about 1 GW] That is because they want to minimize the cost of storage...

     

    2) So they need up to 72 hours of storage... for 72 GW, or a little over 5 TWhrs. Hmm, http://rsc.li/TlwAoO calculates for 24 TWhr:

     

    "Electrochemical storage of energy in batteries is an example of a
    mass-specific problem. 24 h of 1 TW of power corresponds to
    8.6 x 10^16 J and since a lead–acid storage battery holds about
    140 kJ /kg and a Li-ion battery holds up to 610 kJ /kg this
    corresponds to 6.1 X 10^11 kg of lead–acid (~100 years worth of
    current lead production) or 1.4 x 10^11 kg of Li-ion batteries
    (representing ~15 years worth of current graphite production
    for the anodes and ~160 years of current lithium production)."

     

    3) Oh, and they still need fossil fuel plants on five occasions over the four year project to keep the lights on...

     

    Please note, this is just PJM interconnect, the US North East, not the whole country. PJM is about 20% of US electricity.

     

    Maybe I had too good a New Years Eve, but how can anybody print this except on April 1st? Am I still drunk? Wouldn't it be easier just to build about 70 new nukes?

     

    Great find, iindelco.
    1 Jan 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I stopped at the title. Unless we're someday gonna make storage batteries out of rocks and seawater, "we ain't making no terawatthours of storage." Evah. Oh, and "we ain't getting no coke" either...
    1 Jan 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Again please stop with the facts. This is an energy storage blog not a producers blog. My friend. Please control thyself.

     

    I have been amazed that with all the number crunching about the US exorbitant supply of NG and the fact that we will be an oil exporter soon, no one has mentioned that these items MIGHT mean that storage is less valuable.
    1 Jan 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3089) | Send Message
     
    After another glass of wine, let's see how much investment this is. At $5/watt, 216 GW is over a trillion dollars. A lot of the project is offshore wind, and people have been throwing around numbers like $10 or $15 per watt construction cost.

     

    If we assume 70,000,000 people live in PJM area, and the renewables cost $1.4 trillion, that is $20,000 per person (not family) additional capital investment required. This does not include the expensive part -- a huge grid rebuild, or the impossible battery requirements. Then again, it might cost $2.8 trillion, or $40,000 per person.

     

    As Senator Dirksen might have said, "A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you are talking real money."
    1 Jan 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (3089) | Send Message
     
    I woke up today from a weird dream about building 216 GW of wind turbines attached to the biggest honkin' MOAB (Mother of All Batteries - http://bit.ly/Uk9GQU)...

     

    Whoa, not a dream. Not including the MOAB and a multi-trillion upgrade to the grid, the authors propose the northeast USA take on $40,000 of debt per person. The US National debt is just $52,000 per person today, so what is the problem? http://bit.ly/w4ISUL

     

    Now, for the fun part. We've see what happens when 20 kwh of batteries get wet, like several Fiskers. A little bit bigger, and we get Toxco Recycling... Let's assume the 5 TWhr is distributed in 250 locations all over the northeast imagine. If that MOAB battery went off, 250 towns would get a fire or explosion a million times the size of a Fisker. Whoopee!

     

    Since we do such a good job of wiring and protecting grid, I am sure they wouldn't all go off a the same time. Like the last three times the northeast (2005, 1977, 1964) was blacked out. This time is different.
    2 Jan 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (500) | Send Message
     
    The take-away for other readers is that renewables can replace all fossil fuels for the same cost. This is affirmation news at its best, and most destructive.

     

    It does not mention what the fossil fuel externality costs they use are, but I expect they take the myopic view includes the US defense budget.

     

    "The model used prices that left out federal and state subsidies but included the costs of fossil fuel externalities."
    2 Jan 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    How we act when the lights go out. RIP Big Allis.

     

    Why the utilities move soooo slow.

     

    http://bit.ly/Vuc9Jo
    2 Jan 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Maybe I had too good a New Years Eve, but how can anybody print this except on April 1st?"

     

    No Rick, Given the content your perspective is stone cold sober.

     

    BTW, I saw a good link in the comments section on Europe. I have only scanned it thus far.

     

    ROADMAP 2050-
    A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO A PROSPEROUS,
    LOW-CARBON EUROPE

     

    http://bit.ly/UCdyiS
    1 Jan 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    First Converted Hybrid Train with Regenerative Braking Could be a Game Changer

     

    http://bit.ly/WZyLmg

     

    "The route has 14 stops in just 37 km (22 miles), therefore many opportunities to recharge batteries with regenerated braking power."

     

    "Braking energy can be stored in a lithium-ion battery and used for starting, accelerating, or for supplying electrical loads on the train. Battery packs sit on the roof, where they are cooled by the air streaming across the top of the train while it is in motion."
    1 Jan 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • timzinski
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    I must presume that Siemens has tested the batteries in the hybrid locomotive before going live. Does this mean that they have Li-ion batteries that work and are economically viable? How many charge cycles do they get?

     

    At Kandi Technologies the CEO has stated his preference for LAB in their EVs because they will cycle about 500 times, guaranteed.
    The Li-ion companies pushing batteries like to tout 2,000 charge cycles but Mr. Hu laments that "no Li-ion battery company in the world will guarantee him even 500 cycles for their Li-ion battery products".

     

    If Siemen's Li-ion packs fail in short order like NS's first attempt perhaps they would like to try the PbC. But then, would they have to resort to 3 more years of testing of PbC's?

     

    2 Jan 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    OEM testing is a funny thing because the more you've completed the less you need to do. In automotive we had BMW spend three years before sending their results for peer review. When that data was made available to the un-named Asian OEM, they decided to skip the preliminaries and go directly to system specific testing for their planned use. I'd expect exactly the same kind of process in other industries including rail and trucking and stationary.
    2 Jan 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Does East Penn have a license to develop the Ultrabattery in anything other than a stationary application?

     

    "It is at least three years since Sally Mikesiewicz, Chief Executive and Vice Chairman of East Penn Manufacturing beat a path to Wood’s door to obtain a license to develop the Ultrabattery in a stationary application (Furukawa in Japan has the licence for automotive work) because the company could see the massive potential in a lead‑acid system that could cycle and cycle hundreds of thousands of times without any detriment."

     

    http://bit.ly/TvC1qa
    2 Jan 2013, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    East Penn has sub-licensed the Ultrabattery for all applications in Canada, the US and Mexico. Furukawa has a license for Japan and Thailand. CSIRO is apparently engaged in licensing negotiations with companies in Europe, China, India, South Africa and Australia.

     

    http://bit.ly/VzaK3F

     

    While CSIRO is unclear on the subject, I *think* East Penn's Ecoult subsidiary has a global license for renewable applications.
    2 Jan 2013, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Hellow 2013 for everyone:

     

    Good news to Rosewater & Axion Power:

     

    Senate version of “Fiscal Cliff” legislation includes 12 energy tax extenders; boost for algae

     

    http://bit.ly/Vvb3zz

     

    -.408. Credits for energy-efficient new homes are extended to 31 December 2013.

     

    -.409. Credits for energy-efficient appliances are extended into 2013

     

    Have a nice 2013-Carlos
    2 Jan 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Carlos!
    2 Jan 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tongas
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Another article found about batteries/hybrid vessels,this one about tugs.this is just to give small evidence that things are slowly moving at sea.
    Supply vessels,small passenger boats,tugs;even if theses are locals initiatives and not yet mainstream,it does exist.
    http://bit.ly/Uk89u8
    2 Jan 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2697) | Send Message
     
    From the hybrid tug article tongas referenced.

     

    "The lithium batteries are completely maintenance free, according to Ron Burchett, Corvus Energy’s marine sales manager. There is a computer in each battery that continuously evaluates each cell so they maintain the same voltage, according to Burchett. He said the batteries on Campbell Foss will last 20 years."

     

    20 years of operational life for lithium polymer batteries in a deep cycle, hybrid tugboat use. I am impressed - by the "marketing engineering" if nothing else.
    I wonder what field results Corvus Energy can point at to back up this claim? Sigh.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    This article reminded me of a question I've had in the back of my mind for a while, which is that with lead-acid batteries, any lead-acid batteries, a large number need to be strung together to provide whatever target energy/power mix a particular application requires.

     

    I am thinking about the amount and weight of packaging that could be saved if PbC batteries, for example, could be constructed on a significantly larger format than the roughly car-battery size they are now.

     

    My question, then -- and I think this might have been touched on here before -- is: would it be practical to think about building quite large format PbC batteries to save packaging weight?

     

    TIA.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's not unusual for lead-acid battery manufacturers to build very large cells (several thousand amp hours) for commercial and industrial applications. I'm not aware of any reasons why the PbC couldn't be made in a larger format, but Axion's plant is not set up for batteries larger than conventional automotive and truck sizes.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    billa,
    From my understanding of the discussions we've had here, the problem wouldn't be one of technical limitations, as far as building larger format PbC batteries, but one of loss production capacity. In other words, right now the PbC can be constructed on any AGM line with some simple modifications. And the robotic lines for making the electrodes are designed to make carbon electrodes that fit those forms. So yes, you could build bigger PbC batteries, but you would need to build new electrode and battery assembly lines to make them, which in the near term wouldn't be cost effective for Axion. IMHO
    2 Jan 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP and LabTech.

     

    It comes down to a business decision, then, and we have so many irons in the fire where the package we are selling is just fine that thinking about larger format batteries right now is not on the agenda.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    12/31/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from Instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 335909, AvTrSz: 5249
    Min. Pr: 0.2780, Max Pr: 0.2938, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2840
    # Buys, Shares: 37 197813, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2850
    # Sells, Shares: 27 138096, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2826
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.43:1 (58.9% “buys”), DlyShts 19837 (5.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.36%

     

    On the traditional TA front not much change. Price continues to seem to be certainly into medium-term consolidation, riding just above the weakening 50-day SMA (which will continue to weaken another 4-5 days if there's no price movement), has the traditional 20-period Bollingers moving sideways while my experimental 13-period bands have pinched down and started the same sideways movement, continues to have “flat” volume and price action, and the oscillators I follow continuing to be mixed and flip-flopping from day-to-day. IOW, “directionless” price action for now.

     

    If some of this is related to closing of books for EOY, tax considerations, ... we might see a repeat of last year's January action, as JP and others have suggested, start to develop. I'm not saying it will happen though – just mentioning that the “unexpected” seems to be fairly common for this equity. Last year it started right at the beginning of the year and moved from a close of $0.27 on 12/30/11 to a close of $0.64, +137%, on 1/26/12. Well, we've closed this year a penny higher (+3.07%), so would we look for a high of at least $0.66? Any “catalyst” would just add to that, if the movement does appear.

     

    On my experimental charts stuff, we see the average trade size at the low end of what I think is “retail” and seeming to consolidate towards the middle of the range over this month. The buy:sell percentage is above the normal ranges and the 10-day average is rapidly moving back to above the 25-day average and likely will move above the longer-term ones again: 48% and 49% for the 50 and 1-day averages respectively.

     

    The price action continues to suggest we are entering medium-term consolidation as the VWAP has remained relatively flat ($0.2882, $0.2896, $0.2831, $0.2870 and $0.2840), the lows are the same ($0.2775, $0.2875, $0.2781, $0.2800 and $0.2780) and the highs also are behaving that way ($0.2940, $0.2939, $0.2938, $0.2937 and $0.2938) with volume remaining low, right around the longer-term averages (in thousands, 349, 322 and 355 for the 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively).

     

    The daily short sales are doing the usual, recently, pattern of spiking, going absurdly low and then climbing up again to make another spike. It's interesting to note, if you look at my charts, to see how the averages began a long-term trend lower near the end of September through the end of October. This movement began shortly after JP's thoughts that the big sellers were getting exhausted and after my “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff caused me to suggest the nearing exhaustion beginning in August. This can be seen in the instablog where I show the monthly averages.

     

    My thinking on that is the exit of the “big uglies” returned control to the market-makers, particularly ATDF, who are now playing the market like a fine violin. This condition will likely exist until either a catalyst appears or some sustained buying pressure overwhelms the MMs' ability to control the action. Daily short sales should take a big initial spike and settle at a higher level when that happens and sustain until the pressure abates and the MMs can regain control again. Don't ask me when.

     

    I've got some discussion of my experimental inflection point calculations that suggest a price bump is getting set up again. We got one from the last set up, but it was quite small and short-lived as the follow-through from the set up never developed. I'm suspecting EOY stuff might be responsible for some of that. If so the completion of the next set up, barring any catalyst prior to that, should result in a stronger move.

     

    I'm more suspicious that the daily short sales reflect market-maker action which is holding price in a tight range. Notice how we see, on my charts, short-sales percentage spikes through November and December, as price begins to show any real appreciation, followed by a big drop as price is forced down again. Since we believe the “big uglies” are out of the picture, this leaves traders and market-makers as the likely suspects. I've been positing that market-makers are culpable because I believe they are playing with the stock for fun and profit.

     

    That discussion and the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff are omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    UBSS comes in with a bid of $0.28 x 100K and ATDF, of course, goes to $0.2801 x 10K. If UBSS stays - bid came at 10:05:54 - it looks like we have a floor.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Haven't watched every Level II minute, but I see UBSS is now at .29 with 78.5K left bidding ... so if they're walking it up, it's nice to see the bid get walked up instead of the offer being walked down.

     

    Interesting though ... UBSS is best offer at .2924 (9K)

     

    Best bid is ATDF 30K @ .2901
    2 Jan 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: bids have been walking up all morning. Usual behavior, mostly with NITE, TEJS, ATDF doing most of it. UBSS held their 100K for a long time before moving it. Of course, TEJS jumped ahead at $0.2902 x "standard" 2.5K. ATDF will jump next to $0.2903 or so I think.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    So it's official, the "rich" have higher tax rates, and so those that might have participated in past offerings and been waiting to sell AXPW to record a tax loss might do so in the new tax year. Could be a head wind. If one was considering doing this, I would think you would do it soon and hope that any news so good that it actually moves the stock doesn't happen for 30 days.

     

    On the other hand, maybe they already had a lot of loss carry-forwards that happened in the last 4 years or so and it won't be much of a factor, though if they took profits at year end (as suggested for much of the December AAPL selling), maybe they've used up/offset a lot of them.

     

    Fair number of folks think if we could get anything close to the "grand bargain," the market would take off big time ... and they might consider booking losses now to shield their expected gains.
    2 Jan 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: this may be more important than the rate change.

     

    "... The bill represented the largest tax increase in the past two decades ..."

     

    From the WSJ's "Congress Passes Cliff Deal"

     

    http://on.wsj.com/12Yjhn5

     

    And "Fiscal cliff deal will add $4 trillion to US deficit, says CBO"

     

    http://bit.ly/ViUxjR

     

    So even with the latest "self-induced emergency" deferred, the game is still underway and BHO has already said he'll be back for more tax increases this year.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I almost wish I was still running a manufacturing operation. Handing out paychecks would be a hoot this week...
    2 Jan 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    TB; The "hoots" would be drowned out by the "Boos" when the workers got those checks! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    At 12:30:02, UBSS had 78.K of it's 100K moved to bid of $0.29.

     

    As of 12:35:04 ...

     

    # Trds: 68, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 127988, AvTrSz: 4266
    Min. Pr: 0.2751, Max Pr: 0.2924, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2853
    # Buys, Shares: 25 113388, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2865
    # Sells, Shares: 5 14600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2757
    # Unkn, Shares: 38 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 7.77:1 (88.6% "buys)

     

    The buy:sell will likely fall back some as the normal late-day weakness comes in (as MMs begin to short aggressively into strength?). But I can see the end being around 3.x:1, maybe even stronger. If the MMs don't short, greater price and buy:sell strength could be seen.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    UBSS has raised it's best offer to 20K at .3045.

     

    In between is true best ATDF 5K @ .2950 and TEJF 2.5K @ .2995

     

    Best bids (ATDF,TEJS, UBSS) still hanging out at .29 area
    2 Jan 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    ATDF added a bunch to their offer at .295, and somebody took out 66.7K at that price.

     

    Probably UBSS as they're now "only" bidding 11.8K at .295

     

    Always possible someone using UBSS sold for tax loss purposes back in late November and, counting their blessings on no UL announcement, are re-establishing their position.

     

    Looks like a chance we could close right around .30 today
    2 Jan 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    It's encouraging to see the pps gradually rising so far today. It gives hope that the new year is bringing another rise like we had last January. Hopefully we'll get good news and it will continue to rise past January.
    2 Jan 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (624) | Send Message
     
    fwiw...I was the one who made that 66k purchase today. I have finally turned the corner on this stock and purchased a 100k block (all on Jan 2), and I had to chase it upward to .295.

     

    So it was not someone re-establishing an old position, I have never owned a share until today. but I will be monitoring the sp for the next year and add another 50-100k if the price dips again.

     

    Normally I don't like to discuss my purchases, because anyone can claim any number of shares in a portfolio, but my purchase(s) today seem to have some here speculating...
    3 Jan 2013, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You've been a regular reader and a very active question asker for a long time. If I'd been asked to speculate, I would have guessed that you'd been building a position for months. Here's hoping that some of the other fence sitters decide to join you.
    3 Jan 2013, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing Milhouse
    3 Jan 2013, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (624) | Send Message
     
    Well, I have been asking a lot of questions, and you have certainly been excellent about answering them, and for that I thank you.

     

    I have been watching this stock for a long time, but had been laboring under the belief that AGM batteries were going to work in the micro-hybrid space.
    I believe that your original supposition was that light and medium micro-hybrids would probably utilize AGM and MHF batteries, and axion was going to be competitive in heavy hybrids. This did not seem like a competitive position to me, and I felt that with tweaking, a system which worked for medium would also work well for heavy.
    Clearly, with recent testing results and the public capitulation of the battery makers, conventional lead batteries will not work in any micro-hybrids.
    The statement by JCI that lead-acid will not work for micro-hybrid applications effectively swept AGM and MHF off the table, and has made PbC the "floor" (in my mind).
    Axion's lead-carbon battery has now attained the enviable position of The Cheapest Solution to the Problem, and will compete only with Lithium ion for the micro-hybrid space when the dust settles IMO.
    It is nice when your company rotates itself into better market opportunities, it is even nicer when the industry itself rotates around your company to open up new markets for you.
    GLTA
    3 Jan 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    One of the crazy things about the PbC is that we never considered things like automotive stop-start, battery powered locomotives and hybrid heavy trucking when we started the process. Our core focus was renewables integration and high-value grid applications. These markets have emerged from nowhere over the past couple years and are potential monsters. It's one of those times when if I'd had things my way I would have short changed myself.

     

    On balance, I'd rather be lucky than smart.
    3 Jan 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: I'm more interested in the buy: sell. That 66.x trade was a "buy" and combined with the two following through 13:49, we have the buy:sell sitting at 7.83:1.

     

    Unless we get a large volume of "sells" through the rest of the day, the ratio will end better than I had anticipated. But I did see a 40K sell at $0.292 come at 14:02:59 - so that offsets some of the 66K influence. But we hit $0.30 on one trade so far.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2232) | Send Message
     
    .303c as I write this. Even if it proves ephemeral... it's nice to see the price above .30c again!!!!
    2 Jan 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2232) | Send Message
     
    opps.... need to type faster.... there's .3044c.... is it too early to get giddy?
    2 Jan 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Today's move is strong on price, volume and "buy:sell".

     

    It's strong enough to have moved all my experimental buy:sell calculations to a bullish stance with *every* one curling upwards and now the 10-day getting ready to cross the 100-day.

     

    If we end the day this way, a noticeable move up is in the works.

     

    VWAP through 14:50 is $0.2937, the highest since 12/12.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    If Elliott Waves are occurring, then $0.3299 is the first level of resistance, on our first wave upward.

     

    We could be seeing a little buying today after EOY tax loss selling. New Cap Gains taxes not as high as expected...

     

    Also, there may be buyers playing the same trade game as last year. I know my broker is, as he's disclosed what he's doing via a voicemail.

     

    I think that's a more risky move than last year, due to Special Sitz zonking share prices at the end of last year, especially with the looming cap raise.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In 45 days we'll know whether SS was standing pat or selling during Q4.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    <*TFH*> in place ...

     

    A financing deal was already negotiated that did *not* include a "stretegic investor", but rather the same crew that participated in last year's financing. Then we assume a discount to market for xx days in 2012. Our "financiers" then drive up price before the completion of the paperwork and the announcement.

     

    Then they do what they did last year.

     

    I don't like to think like this, but ...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2717) | Send Message
     
    I thought last year the volume weighted price average was based sometime in January, when the price ran up? Thus, in your scenario, the financiers would drive up prices for themselves.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Ranma - you could be right. My memory is not always the best. I do recall 45 days, but forget when the period started.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: Using BangWhiz's great site linked in the header of every concentrator,

     

    http://bit.ly/rXixeb

     

    I found the answer. The price was determined using "The share price for this transaction was pre-determined by calculating a 10% discount to market using the Company's volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP)". First mentioned here, it looks like.

     

    http://bit.ly/YUInOJ

     

    Then, see the "header" of Concentrator 59 by Mayascribe.

     

    http://bit.ly/UJ7E09

     

    Anyway, that pricing apparently used the period of 11/16/2011 - 1/31/2012 AFAICT. Of course, allowing time for paperwork, etc., maybe it slides "backwards" a bit.

     

    So, this leaves my TFH concerns intact ATM. Behavior this time is no different than the last time when they got the offering done.

     

    But it is *only* a TFH concern, not a working theory ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2232) | Send Message
     
    "grobertson1" hasn't posted since the 27th of last month... I wonder if his/her "troll contract" is up at the end of the year...

     

    I consider it a small victory that I had a post removed (along with the above troll) last week.

     

    I'd bet dollars to doughnuts we will NOT hear from this individual as the price grinds higher... coincidence?
    2 Jan 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    If your comment was under one of the deleted comments (indented relationship, therfore grouped with the deleted comment) your comment is also deleted. The APC author can only delete comments in this way (its built into the SA structure), so it would not necessarily reflect upon the content of your comment.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    WOW UBSS offering 305K at .31!

     

    Trader, or someone trying to change psychology and put a lid on and build their position?

     

    UBSS now only offer .275 (6k)
    2 Jan 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    We'll see if that big offer is real or just a mirage...
    2 Jan 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: If, as some have suggested, there was a plan to exit before EOY and then re-enter, UBSS may find themselves "taken out" in short order - not necessarily today.

     

    Since we saw something similar last year, *before* I started my experimental charts, the option is certainly there that we could see a 100%+ rise again.

     

    And if any of the pending PRs come out ... WHOOPEE!

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Someone just hit the bid for a "sell" of 13K @ $0.2942.
    2 Jan 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2232) | Send Message
     
    H.T.L... just my guess, but the 13k was probably stop-loss getting wacked.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    O.R: Likely. They should have used a stop-limit order. Subsequent orders had a much higher average price.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    OK, so I won't take ALL the credit for our new rally, but, fulfilling what I earlier said here I'd do, here's the text of the lagniappe "addendum" I enclosed with my Yule 2012 annual musings letter to friends and family...

     

    This year’s lagniappe consists of a pair of investment recommendations, both opportune for consideration in my opinion: Axion Power International (AXPW), based near Pittsburgh, PA, and American Capital (ACAS), headquartered in Washington, DC.

     

    Axion Power International (AXPW) is a small company ($32 million market cap) poised, I conclude, to rapidly transition from ten years of battery technology development towards rapidly ramping sales into a battery market sector itself set to rapidly accelerate. The technology has nothing to do with stumbling, over-sold lithium dreams, but, rather, an intellectually protected major improvement upon ubiquitous lead-acid battery technology involving a novel activated-carbon electrode replacement for use in standard AGM (absorbed glass mat) lead-acid batteries. The achievements of this new technology are PbC® batteries for transportation and grid applications with extremely rapid and exceedingly large amperage charge acceptance combined with orders of magnitude increased longevity (cycling). Used in long ‘strings’, they are self-equalizing and require no complex battery management system overlay. I’ve researched this company for well over a year and have been building a significant position from May into November, anticipating a share price briskly moving from something just over two bits to something well over a dollar en route to perhaps $3, $5, or even $10. A compelling brief on this company has been written by a lawyer-technologist whose expertise, highly regarded in the battery industry, I have come to trust. It can be read online at <seekingalpha.com/a... Should you have any expertise which bears on this company or adoption of its technology, I will look forward to hearing from you. [That was /article/1020351.]

     

    I’ll offer an advisory regarding transacting in low-volume ‘“penny” stocks, such as AXPW. It’s generally best to avoid entering “market orders” to buy “at the market”, so as not to be gouged. Much better is to look at a chart of recent price action, consider the current bid/ask pricing as well as the “size” (the number of shares being sought or being offered for sale at those prices), and then place a “limit order” (specifying the most you will pay). Depending on your purchase strategy, you can choose to place a limit order as a “day order” (any unexecuted quantity of shares expires at the end of the day) or as a “good til cancelled” order in which any unexecuted number of shares carries over day to day for up to about two months (or until you cancel the order), incurring a commission charge for each day during which transactions actually occur. Although attaching the criterion “all or none” to an order sounds appealing (you wouldn’t need to be concerned with “partial fills”), in fact it is a very bad idea (such ‘complicated to fill’ orders are ill-regarded by “market makers” and frequently don’t get filled even if the price seems to drop below what you were willing to pay).

     

    Here’s an example url (for AXPW) I use to view a stock’s 5-day price chart:
    <finance.yahoo.com/...
    To view the year-long chart:
    <finance.yahoo.com/...
    For any other company change the &s= parameter value from “axpw” to another stock symbol, say ACAS for example. If you compare the above urls you can notice that the &t= parameter identifies the time period: 1d, 5d, 6m, 1y, 2y, 5y, or my (for max years). You can also display charts for more than one stock at a time. For example, use “AXPW+ACAS” (or “axpw+acas” - case doesn’t matter) as the &s= parameter value to do so.

     

    The other investment recommendation is my long-running stock favorite American Capital (http://bit.ly/UIGw1m), a still-recovering “fallen angel” which I believe represents excellent value for purchase at current levels (it’s trading way below NAV). This business development company (“BDC”) was earlier known for its consistently high dividends (its legal structure required it to pay out substantially all of its profits). Presently the company is plowing profits into repurchasing its own shares at that large discount to net asset value, as long as that discount remains (and will return to dividend payments when the gap closes). Making such purchases of its own stock increases earnings per share but also further boosts its organically growing NAV! I was personally acquainted with the founder/CEO through a job I held at Calvert Group Mutual Funds and can vouch for his earnestness and integrity. I have also continued to assess management by attending many shareholder meetings in person and by monitoring conference calls: management is of an exceedingly high caliber. In 2008/2009, when the investment world was imploding and I was pressed with margin calls, American Capital was the stock I most wanted to keep (and buy more of). (It rebounded from an all time low, in that period, of 58 cents to its recent $11-12 range; when last quarterly reported, NAV had grown to $17.39.) Here is a recently published online article comprehensively detailing the salient points regarding ACAS: <seekingalpha.com/a... [That was /article/1033641.]

     

    N.B.: If you happen to be considering opening a self-directed discount brokerage account with TDAmeritrade, there would be mutual benefit to permitting me to make the referral.
    2 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC--Post of the Year! Fantastic job of getting the word out. Thanks much.
    2 Jan 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Durham Police HQ under fire.

     

    Crazy person? Nope. Terrorist? Nope. Floor scrubber. Fortunately nobody hurt.

     

    Get those BMS's right.

     

    http://bit.ly/UIKZkH
    2 Jan 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    More exotic niche vehicles. Yep, They are expensive to service.

     

    Chevrolet Volt dealers opt out over expensive tools

     

    http://bit.ly/WeTS1p
    2 Jan 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    This contract should be awarded some time early this year. It will be interesting to see who they go with. You'll note the RFPI was amended in November 2012. Reviewed it then but couldn't see the differences without spending a bunch of time on it.

     

    Press Release: USABC ISSUES AMENDED RFPI FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADVANCED BATTERIES FOR 12V START-STOP

     

    http://bit.ly/XjHO5A
    2 Jan 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    They kept the volume and weight limits so I'm not going to hold my breath.
    2 Jan 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    JP, are you referring to?

     

    Maximum System Weight - kg10

     

    http://bit.ly/TI7Z13

     

    See APPENDIX A - USABC Goals for Advanced Batteries for 12V Start Stop Vehicle Applications
    2 Jan 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, I recall our conversation on the topic and checked that first. I am not hopeful myself since there is such a bias. But when you look at all the other metrics lithium doesn't exactly come close in some other categories where the PbC has hope of meeting the targets. Of course, even though the industry promises more and delivers less than a back alley salesman (worse yet congressperson), lithium will most likely get the nod.
    2 Jan 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    In the final analysis, what's more important to an automaker, 10 pounds or 100 bucks? I gotta believe the dollars carry more weight in the end...
    2 Jan 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering how any manufacturer would be able to meet:

     

    "Maximum System Selling Price (@100k units/year)
    Under Hood $220
    Not Under Hood $180"
    2 Jan 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Simple, using the A123 method:

     

    Sell all units below cost.
    2 Jan 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, Depends on the vehicle class. In a Chevy Malibu 100 USD. In a Maserati 10 lbs. Then there are the government regs and how they phase in. In the end the targets are not static for this and many other reasons. Mass and volume are VERY important but in the end the automakers are in it for one reason.....money. OK OK, Well and jobs. ;)
    2 Jan 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    I think it's very telling how important $ is when the giant behind The Ultimate Driving Machine is at the testing forefront.
    2 Jan 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Money is always important. But vehciles also have mass targets that have to be met. How they do this by component/subsystem is driven by the cost to achieve to target. What I mean by this is the platform team controls everything on the vehicle and they will choose the lowest cost solutions. So if they can add in a LAB which adds mass but reduces the component cost by some dollar amount, they can choose other areas to reduce the mass. Maybe magnesium seat frames as an example. Obviously mass is important or they wouldn't be looking at carbon fiber for components. It's all a balancing act.
    2 Jan 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3217) | Send Message
     
    iinde---yep. Lots 'o trade-offs. Good sign that a luxury company that knows how important weight is to performance and image continues to test the PbC. Makes it even easier to believe that lithium won't blanket the landscape.
    2 Jan 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    1/2/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 83, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 66700, Vol 538958, AvTrSz: 6493
    Min. Pr: 0.2751, Max Pr: 0.3048, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2955
    # Buys, Shares: 68 468966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2960
    # Sells, Shares: 15 69992, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2922
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 6.70:1 (87% “buys), DlyShts 183788 (34.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 262.58%

     

    Closed up 8.82% on rising, and relatively strong, volume. Just like last year, after a “sell off” and strong downward price pressure in the end of 2011, we had strong volume and price appreciation on the first trading day of the new year. Last year we had an ultimate rise of +137%, as also mentioned in my 12/31/12 comment linked below. Are the same forces at work?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Will we repeat? It looks possible, as detailed in this comment responding again to Ranma.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    9.9K in pre-market trades are not included on the FINRA-reported short sales data. If these are included in total volume, the short percentage moves from 32.87% to 32.26%. If they are also included as short sales, the percentage moves to 34.10%.

     

    After those initial trades, and two more at $0.2751 for a total of 5.1K, it was mostly straight up, as the bids kept stepping up and the ask sporadically did the same, through 14:51, when we hit the day's high of $0.3048. Even after that high, buying enthusiasm remained reasonably strong as the later trades, 58.8K (10.91% of total volume), had a VWAP of $0.3030.

     

    I posted a mid-day update that shows just how strong the buying pressure was through 12:35.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    And later I posted another comment mentioning how strong the VWAP was at $0.2937 then.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Since we did end strongly, I believe a run up is quite likely here and I will address that below where I briefly touch on my experimental stuff. As I mentioned in that first comment, “If the MMs don't short, greater price and buy:sell strength could be seen”. Well, it looks to me like they did short (see the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” above) and we still finished strong.

     

    In my 12/31 comments I suggested that the market-makers were in control and would be shorting as price tried to rise. Today seems to support that thesis. I used to think, months ago, that we had a “pull effect”, enticing low-cost longs to sell into strength. Observing the behavior over time, that may have been true somewhere along the line, but I no longer believe that's the case. There's just too many times we've seen daily short sales spike on strength and fall as price is “pushed” down. And the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff seems to support market-maker action as it tends to spike when price, buy:sell and (sometimes?) volume exhibit strength.

     

    Enough of that and on to traditional TA.

     

    First, in a nod to DRich, the MACD signal crossed above its average. He mentioned some days ago that at last the long-term trend was suggesting some strengthening. It's not a ton yet, but every journey ... etc.

     

    Volume was ~55% above my 25-day SMA. VWAP price is above the 50-day SMA of yesterday's $0.2807 ($0.2806 today and it will drop two more days if price just stays flat). All the oscillators I watch but two are definitely in a transition to bullish mode, as would be expected with high volume and strong price appreciation. RSI is at ~63 now and climbing, accumulation/distribution is near going positive from a current reading of -0.084, stochastic is at 72.5 and climbing above and away from its average line, Williams %R is just below its peak of zero at -0.337 and climbing.

     

    We have closed six consecutive days above my older descending long-term trend line, which was resistance and should now act as support. Going forward, near-term, this should put our bottom around $0.28 if we don't pull away from it. Pulling away from it does seem likely to me.

     

    The volatility in the price today would lead traditional technical analysts to say “indecision with a move either direction likely”. Then they would address the strength into the close, if they were watching, and say a move up looks likely. If they weren't watching, they would advise caution and say wait for confirmation. I can take this stance, using two new long-term trend lines, both of which intersect today's high and close. A continued trading predominately above $0.304x with a close above that on volume would provide confirmation.

     

    This behavior would put any market-makers trying to play the stock behind the eight-ball and they would be put into a mode of shorting into rising prices trying to keep their VWAP near the then-current price so they could cover when weakness appeared. If this is what will happen we should see continued increasing daily short sales if price and volume continue to strengthen. The subsequent market-maker covering buys would limit, for a short while and to a small degree, any downward movement.

     

    Moving to my experimental stuff, today's VWAP moved above all averages but the 200-day SMA. The 25-day average VWAP will move above the 100-day average tomorrow. I'm expecting the downward sloping linear trend lines' correlations to continue to weaken from their current 0.78/0.79 readings if appreciation continues strongly. Buy:sell averages are right back where they belong and the average trade size continues to slowly move back towards its long-term linear trend and is back at its averages and is back in what I believe to be “retail” mid-range.

     

    I had mentioned in my 12/31 instablog post and APC commentary that:
    “... suggest a price bump is getting set up again. We got one from the last set up, but it was quite small and short-lived as the follow-through from the set up never developed. I'm suspecting EOY stuff might be responsible for some of that. If so the completion of the next set up, barring any catalyst prior to that, should result in a stronger move”.

     

    Well, speak of the devil. I'll some numbers in the concentrator, but the visual representation available on the charts really shows the movement better and how it compares to prior moves.

     

    ------ Rolling 5-day aggregate percentage change ------
    xxxxxxxxxxx 5 Dayx 10 Day 25 Dayx 50 Dayx 100 Day 200 Day
    12/21 1 Day 0.0435 0.1069 -0.0279 -0.0381 -0.1986 0.0769
    12/24 2 Day 0.4105 0.1188 +0.0759 +0.0995 -0.1108 0.1135
    12/26 3 Day 0.8424 0.3386 +0.0634 +0.1819 +0.1608 0.1527
    12/27 4 Day 0.6542 0.2573 -0.2106 +0.1426 +0.1609 0.1070
    12/28 5 Day 0.9927 0.3289 -0.4495 +0.1258 +0.3797 0.1237
    12/31 5 Day 1.1121 0.3664 -0.3321 +0.1933 +0.5376 0.1059
    01/02 5 Day 1.7311 0.8801 -0.0558 +0.2866 +0.9093 0.3548

     

    Average % change/day, 5 days
    5 Day 10 Day 25 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    12/28 0.1985 0.0658 -0.0899 0.0252 0.0759 0.0247
    12/31 0.2137 0.0519 -0.0609 0.0463 0.1472 0.0058
    01/02 0.2641 0.1523 -0.0263 0.0374 0.2040 0.0483

     

    “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1677) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Much obliged as always.
    2 Jan 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Thank you again for your reports. I really do appreciate them. I was not able to be connected very often today and as I sit here tonight reading your daily report I feel that I am back to being current with the market activities of today and the potentials of the near future.

     

    Thanks again
    2 Jan 2013, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Just to compare notes HTL it would be interesting to see how my crude VWMA numbers stack up against your more detailed calculations. I'm showing:

     

    10-Day $0.28534
    20-Day $0.29100
    50-Day $0.28058
    100-Day $0.29274
    200-Day $0.32719
    3 Jan 2013, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    For those who weren't around last year, the January run was a bit more violent than HTL's figures for the month suggest. The HLCV values for the last couple days of December and the first two weeks of January were:

     

    29-Dec-11 $0.30 $0.25 $0.27 1,284,600
    30-Dec-11 $0.28 $0.25 $0.27 1,221,100
    3-Jan-12 $0.31 $0.28 $0.30 345,800
    4-Jan-12 $0.33 $0.30 $0.32 699,600
    5-Jan-12 $0.40 $0.32 $0.39 888,500
    6-Jan-12 $0.45 $0.39 $0.41 1,166,600
    9-Jan-12 $0.44 $0.40 $0.43 842,300
    10-Jan-12 $0.46 $0.43 $0.46 464,400
    11-Jan-12 $0.58 $0.47 $0.58 1,120,500
    12-Jan-12 $0.59 $0.49 $0.51 1,432,600
    13-Jan-12 $0.51 $0.49 $0.50 560,700
    3 Jan 2013, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    10-day $0.2848
    20-day $0.2911
    50-day $0.2794
    100-day $0.2911
    200-day $0.3306

     

    Looks close enough for you-know-what work, on a nominal dollars basis.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks HTL, I was always curious about how close my rough calculations were. They're certainly close enough for me to pass the differences as immaterial.
    3 Jan 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    I'll be out of pocket 1/3 until around noon EST.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    HTL, You da man. I am always so appreciative of your contribution. :o)
    2 Jan 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (865) | Send Message
     
    Since Start/Stop will require a more robust starter motor the question is, Given that start/stop has already been introduced by several auto manufacturers have the starter motors already been improved or not?
    3 Jan 2013, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    AiB,
    Yes, the starters are being beefed up and Valeo offering a starter/alternator. Was already some discussion on this topic. Offerings from Bosch and Valeo:
    http://bit.ly/RuDeOO

     

    http://bit.ly/Wg7hGv
    3 Jan 2013, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (10292) | Send Message
     
    Battery geeks might find this interesting, Randy Carlson posted it in another comment section. Rockwood Lithium presentation video about their lithium processing operations, including recycling lithium from batteries, which some people claim can't happen. This makes four known companies working in that area.
    http://bit.ly/UIHQBk
    3 Jan 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Rockwood claims expertise in "recycling lithium residues." They are working on a pilot process for recycling batteries, but nowhere near an economic process. Given the incredibly complex materials mix and architecture in lithium-ion batteries, it is highly unlikely that anybody will ever get to a cost-effective process that results in battery grade materials being recovered through recycling.

     

    I've never said that the chemical challenges were impossible. The killer issues are all economic and there's nothing on the horizon to change that dynamic.

     

    Until somebody comes up with a cost-effective recycling process, $50 a pound batteries will simply be turned into penny a pound slag because the costs of recycling are too high.
    3 Jan 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like