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Add my thanks to that as well. Maya was the catalyst that brought folks out of the woodwork who are altruistic in their willingness to share for mutual benefit. "Enlightened self-interest".
Throwing my hat in the ring again to thank Maya. I'm looking forward to reading the first chapter of the new novel and cashing in some $5 Axion stock this year.
The concentrators certainly keep our spirits up. Many thanks for that.
Maya, Let me add my thanks. The APC has helped me keep my nerve through thick and thin. Sure hope 2013 is full of good Axion news. Happy New Year to all.
Well, it looks like the effects of the three-martini lunch are wearing off. Bidders have started to jostle at the ticket window, bumping the bid from ~$0.2901 x ~7.1K at 14:20 to NITE, ATDF and CDEL pushing each other to $0.30+ at 22.5K (16K $0.30 and 6.5K at $0.3005). This took only 7 minutes.
That's rapid-fire for that crew.
Asks are holding steady ATM at $0.3043 x 10K since 14:00, marked down from CDEL's $0.3044 by - you guessed it - ATDF.
A bit OT Fed says it’s running out of bullets Commentary: FOMC signals that bond purchases may stop http://bit.ly/WgQu6e
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — For the first time since the financial crisis started five years ago, the Federal Reserve has at last made its first signal that its extraordinary loose monetary policy will start to get tougher. o be sure, the change isn’t gigantic. There’s no sense that interest rates will increase from the near zero levels that have lasted for over four years. And the Fed only last month initiated a new bond-buying program, to top off a plan to add more mortgage-backed securities that had only been around since September. But, the minutes show, the central bank is starting to say, enough is enough. Of the crowd that supported bond buys, a few say they should continue until the end of the year, and several said it could stop, or slow, well before then. There are two possible alternatives. One is that the Fed is expecting a big upturn in the economy, so that there just won’t be a need for more juice in the form of bond purchases. That’s not really the case, however. The Fed only expects the unemployment rate in the mid-7% range by the end of the year, from 7.7% in November. And they don’t forecast any serious inflation issues, either. So the alternative explanation is that the Fed just doesn’t think there’s much benefit to bond buys for the broader economy. The minutes say the program to buy MBS has been “effective” but also that the benefits were “uncertain” and that risks are growing as the balance sheet rises.
To put it differently: the Fed thinks the economy isn’t that great and there’s very little inflation to worry about, but its primary program to improve the economy doesn’t do very much.
It’s a clear admission the Fed is running out of gun powder. And that’s quite a shot it has fired to the markets.
Froggy, I have been amazed that the Fed has been able to prop up the economy with this program. I thought I knew something about economics and did not believe what has happened was possible. Makes me proud to know that our officials actually trusted Big Ben to stabilize things.
At this point I'm just watching Ben operate with my mouth having fallen open.
While I thought it might be done. I don't think it should have been done. Basically the Fed is sticking the bad loans on the taxpayers and saving the banks. I would have gone with Iceland's solution. They seem to be getting better also. Yet they don't have the massive added debt the US taxpayer and ROW has.
The govt. kicked the can down the road. Each time the can gets heavier but that's apparently for tomorrow.
I'm a believer that the Keynesian idea only works if the elected and nonelected officials will stop at the right time and take it back. I don't believe they will do it if not forced. The 'Fiscal Cliff' was a baby step in that direction. (Which I've been waiting to see since the set it up a year and a half ago.)
I think things would have been worse in the past without Ben but I think the future would have been better. The present would be a WAG. ( as are the other two.)
Interesting economic times to watch.
P.S. A TFH friend of mine was convinced monetary system would collapse and gold would be at $50K OZ by the end of 2010. He still does expect it to happen. Soon...
Yeah, I have one of those doomsday economic friends also. If Ben can pull this off, God Bless Him. He has done better than I imagined. If he can do better later, then make him King. I am simply amazed.
But I amaze easy, so its no big deal. After all Ben simply kept us from the current fate of Europe. Not an easy task. And much more bad terrain to traverse to safety.
>froggy77 ... I'd vote this topic off. Not because it is not important ... it is ... and we, as a people, rolled our chance to do it right i.e. Resolution Trust, Sweden, Iceland, but it brings out the fact free crazy in too many people while no one is listening. The textual equivalent of "The Jerry Springer Show".
I'm still waiting for a Keynesian solution & we'll get another chance, but it will hurt a lot more.
Dr Rich No problem I'm willing to drop it. I could draw up a hundred points for either side. I know I don't know enough to truley defend my position, and we are where we are, and will do what we will do. Interesting to watch tho.
"Boman said the town will know by Feb. 23 if it has been selected for the program, and if it is, the microgrids would have to be operational within a year."
Maybe CPST involved? "generator at the sewage-treatment plant, which would use the methane gas produced there for fuel. "
>wtblanchard ... I like the idea of microgrids but I think, unless someone has spend a lot of time planning already, one year is a "bum rush". I really don't like the idea of private company developing a monopoly arrangement to provide public services that will depend on a government financial guarantees. Sounds too much like a "good-ole-boy" arrangement like the toll road authority around me.
DR, One could look at the possible subterfuge angle or they could say "Hey, microgrid projects can not possibly be done on a "city wide" basis without granting a monopoly. That is how the entire utility system works. Obviously cheating must be monitored. But test projects often turn up very good products. Lets hope this one works out positive.
Not sure if it scales to the level required by these projects, but my guess is that the projects will combine a number of different generation sources.
wtb, CPST has some nice equipment, from what I've read. However, last time I looked, the cost was very high, and rarely is economic unless there are some significant subsidies, mandates, or something. CPST turbines need gas conditioning (mentioned in the link) which consume energy and increase both capital and operating costs when they run off low quality gases, such as sewer gas.
Turbines are particularly good for continuous, stable, very long term power production, but the high cost is often a challenge. ICE piston equipment is generally better for variable load, intermittent service, and works with dirtier fuels.
'The only exception would be the generator at the sewage-treatment plant, which would use the methane gas produced there for fuel. "The town would rather try and develop that one," Boman said. *"It's basically a diesel engine."*'
Daily short sales doing the usual yo-yo: very low again today. Considering the buy:sell I'm guessing the market-maker(s) had plenty of shares flowing in from recent activity at lower prices short sales at lower prices. Here's some VWAP prices, which I believe the MMs work off of as well: $0.2840, $0.2854, $0.2813, $0.2807, $0.2803, $0.2783, $0.2882, $0.2896, $0.2831, $0.2870, $0.2840 and $0.2955. This would also, IMO, account for the bad buy:sell ratio as the MM could hit the bid quite a bit and still make money with yesterday's and today's VWAP.
Looking at the traditional TA stuff, I'm feeling decent about what I see. First, we had higher a low and high and closed almost flat - $0.3047 vs. Today's $0.3043. Considering volume, not bad. Although we didn't get the confirmation of the run up taking hold, we didn't break it yet either.
Every oscillator I watch continued to essentially hold flat or improve in spite of the low volume: RSI dropped only ~0.04, accum/distribution improved ~0.08, MFI ~+11 to bullish now at ~53.5, momentum down ~0.017 to ~1.09, stochastic continues to rise and ADX holds flat while its components improve to -DI down two to 13 and DI+ is up one to 20.
The MACD Drich has been watching has now moved positive to +0.002 and +0.03 for the average and signal readings respectively.
The two new long-term descending resistances I added yesterday are, again, right atop the price. That didn't stop the price range from moving slightly higher though. Further, the medium term rising trend I established starting at the low of 11/13, which caused me to suggest we might be entering a rising trading channel, continues to offer support. With my final adjustment made several days ago, price still continues to stay at or above it, with only one intra-day penetration below it yesterday, 1/2/13, when we had the nice volume.
The traditional 20-day Bollingers are converging, suggesting that the move out of range is drawing near. My experimental 13-period settings have the upper band being “pushed”, suggesting, based on b past behavior. The most recent case pushed it six days and today is only the second day. The time before that was the same.
If the pattern I'm seeing holds, we have an excellent chance of completing the “cup” portion of a “cup and handle” formation. According to Bulkowski, this should take another two weeks or so, although the trend I'm seeing right now suggests less time could be needed. If it does complete, we should see a modest rise off that pattern. A side-effect is that we would break above those two new long-term descending trend lines and would confirm a break out. That would free price to move to $0.33 and then $0.35. Of course, this could occur without the formation of the handle – the right rim of the cup could just keep on running up.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size today dropped back to the very low end of what I think is “retail” - not surprising I guess since, as JP mentioned, the market-maker(s) have to work harder on these low-volume days to make their money. The buy:sell wasn't excessively weak, so I figure it's “normal” after yesterday's strength. As suggested in my short sales comments, MMs were likely long and taking profit.
Of note, I think, is that the VWAP has risen two consecutive days, along with the high, and caused the 25-day average for the VWAP to cross above the 100-day average (25-day $0.2916 vs. The 100-day $0.2910) along with the intra-day low, high and VWAP (the latter two accomplished this yesterday when that average was $0.2911).
On my experimental inflection point calculations, we know have both the 5 and day periods above zero at 311.58 and 146.96. Here's an update to what I presented for the first time yesterday.
The rest of the inflection point calculations and the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.
The Value of Short-term Energy Storage for Renewable Energy http://bit.ly/UrvN9H "Smaller-scale storage technologies like flywheels and batteries fill the niche opened by FERC order 755. Because a flywheel storage device operates by continuously spinning the shaft of an electric generator, it can compensate for renewable shortfalls almost instantaneously. A flywheel system manufactured by Beacon Power has been deployed in California to demonstrate the fast-ramping capabilities of flywheel storage devices.
Like a flywheel, a battery can rapidly produce electricity to compensate for shortfalls in renewable energy. A battery operates through chemical reactions, so it can adjust its power output in milliseconds to seconds, compared with minutes to hours for electric generators. Furthermore, a battery only needs a small amount of storage capacity to effectively back up renewables. For example, a purpose-built battery recently unveiled by Xtreme Power holds just enough energy to discharge for fifteen minutes. What does this mean? Smaller, less-expensive battery systems can fill a niche on our present electric grid."
The Volt PHEV ends up the winner in sales with Dec and year 2,633 and 23,461 (planned sales 45K a bit over half.) Leaf 1,489 and 9,819 (Planned sales 20K a bit under half.) The Leaf factory that was to open in Dec 2012 May open this month with first deliveries, to dealers, due in late Feb. Is expected at the NAIAS (North American International Auto show) in Detroit. this month 14-27. I-MEV 77 total 588 Honda Fit EV 19 total 93 RAV 4 EV 52 total 194 PHEVs Prius 1,361 total 12,750
Fords numbers won't be out until tomorrow. I got the above from Insideevs. I also got the following quotes from the same page. http://bit.ly/TjXhje
<Tesla Model S: Tesla does not give out exact monthly sales. However, consistent SEC filings, factory reports and tweets lets us be fairly accurate. By most estimates, Tesla had sold around 700-800 Model S sedans going into December, and Tesla reconfirmed as late as mid-November that it would still deliver at least 2,700-3,225 by year’s end. However, by the start of December, it seemed fairly obviously that Tesla would not be able to achieve sales of 2,000-odd units for the month. To improve results, Tesla then sent out emails early in the month to almost all reservation holders expecting delivery of their Model S in January (and some February) to “move up” their paperwork to log sales into December, regardless if the car did not actually get delivered in the month. Even still, the highest VIN we seen allocated by Tesla by the cutoff was around 3,100, and all the VINS are not built and delivered sequentially. We estimate Tesla delivered (or at least quasi-delivered) around 1,500 cars in December, bringing the yearly total to about 2,300. We will know for sure when the company reports Q4 results in a couple weeks.>
And one about Fisker <Fisker Karma: Like Tesla, Fisker does not report monthly sales. Fisker also is not keen to report bad news until the last possible moment…probably because they haven’t built a thing since July. This will probably Fisker’s last month on the sales round-up chart here at InsideEVs as results are near meaningless. Henrik Fisker last month said Fisker has sold almost 2,000 Karmas in total, and playing the “highest VIN we can find game” netted us around 2,700, which leaves about 700 still available to be sold…that is until you consider that Fisker lost 338 of those Karmas to Superstorm Sandy. making the available pool of Karmas left around 350 units, 140 of which are still in US inventory.>
Bad news about the RAV4
<Toyota RAV4 EV: After suffering its second month of sales decreases in November, Toyota slashed the MSRP on the RAV4 EV by as much as $7,500 in hopes to both move metal and book much needed ZEV (zero emission vehicle) credits before year’s end. However, the program was not that big of a success as Toyota ended up still only selling 52 RAV4 EVs, as compared to 32 last month.>
A few other tidbits. Mitsubishi does not plan to build a second gen i-MiEV they do not plan to shut it down, but look for improvements in hybrids and PHEVs.
Smart for 2 EV is being redone with more power and longer battery life. (90mpc)
The US built Leaf should have a little more power and range. Also a stripped down version that is cheaper. (I'm not sure about equivalent vehicle prices.)
Tesla's last Form 10-Q says "We recognize revenue when: (i) persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists; (ii) delivery has occurred and there are no uncertainties regarding customer acceptance; (iii) fees are fixed or determinable; and (iv) collection is reasonably assured."
Pushing sales into 2012 from 2013 may benefit buyers who can claim a credit in 2012 instead of 2013 (maybe?) but it won't help Tesla's revenue one iota because Tesla can't book the sale until it delivers the car.
Finally got the Ford numbers. the focus EV in Dec and for the year. 167 total 685 C-max PHEV 971 total 2,374
It appears Ford PHEV are something people want. EVs not so much. http://bit.ly/WgTUWk
"Almost impossibly, Ford sold almost every C-Max Energi they could build last month, as the plug-in sold 971 units in December (after selling 1,259 in November), as Ford was distracted preparing to start selling the Fusion Energi in January. In fact, inventories are so tight, that the C-Max Energi started December with zero inventory on hand in the country’s largest market-California (actually they had 1 unit…but I digress), and finished out the year with less than two dozen on lats. Nationally, C-Max Energi inventory stood a little over 150 units at the end of 2012, which (based on a 60 day moving average) translated to 7.5 days of supply. It seems customers are more than anxious to purchase the 5 seat, 21 mile extended range plug in, which starts at $29,995* ($28,495* in California). As for the Focus Electric, sales were still not that great, but 167 moved off dealer lots in December, a much better result than earlier in the year, when Ford was fortunate to sell 40 or 50...... ....Another thing to consider: In 2012, General Motors ended the year with 2,614 dealers selling Chevrolet Volts. By this past November, Ford had only managed to get 200 dealers certified to sell its plug-ins, and closed out the year at about 500, with another 400 coming online over the next few weeks."
I forgot to mention some dealers have staged a ReVolt. http://bit.ly/TDvklL They are being told to buy $5,100 in equipment to service the Volt. Some have refused according to the company it is only a few dealers. $4,735 is for a machine to drain the battery pack so some work can be done at the dealership level which previously required sending the entire pack to be worked on. Presumably this is happening with enough frequency to require the change.
The Smart for two is getting a redo stronger motor and greater range about 90mpc. Not sure when it is coming out. They expect "High Demand" I don't have Dec sales yet but Nov. was 3. So I don;t think I'll bother.
This is from my post above talking about Tesla deliveries for Dec. (From Insideevs) http://bit.ly/TjXhje <We estimate Tesla delivered (or at least quasi-delivered) around 1,500 cars in December, bringing the yearly total to about 2,300. We will know for sure when the company reports Q4 results in a couple weeks.>
Between fewer deliveries, a massive Q4 loss and a terrible year end financial condition, I wouldn't want to be a stockholder when the "cash flow positive" tweet proves to be the big lie.
JP, you are such a cynic. I am sure St. Elon was "cash flow positive", just not accrued cash positive. With a week-long "computer failure" in Accounts Payable, no money went out the door. Coordinate that between payroll pay days, and voilá, cash flow positive! Not a lie, just a minor computer glitch....
Its an important internal milestone for employees, but its not intended as investment advice. the use of twitter and the timeframe referred to obviously indicates that.
Factory reporting at shift, daily and weekly levels are far more timely and far less onerous than monthly reporting.
A tweet to 122,000 followers is not in the same class as free beer and steaks at the employee barbecue. This is one history that is already written and can't be rewritten by the admittedly formidable Tesla PR machine.
For some reason the paper is not coming up. Apparently, flow batteries can be used for frequency regulation also; however, I understand they are generally not specifically targeted for frequency regulation.
Every battery can be used for frequency regulation. The question is how much of the rated capacity can be delivered over a very short time interval. In fast batteries like lithium and the PbC, a very large percentage of the capacity can be delivered quickly so a 1 MW battery can provide a couple MW of frequency regulation. In slow batteries like NaS, vanadium redox and zinc bromine, a 1 MW battery may only be able to provide 100 kW of frequency regulation.
Over time, a proliferation of grid connected batteries will probably drive the price of frequency regulation down because everybody who owns such a battery will seek to maximize his revenue. It will take many years for FR capacity to exceed FR demand, but if systems like Viridity's management become commonplace along with lots of batteries, the outcome is inevitable.
"Over time, a proliferation of grid connected batteries will probably drive the price of frequency regulation down because everybody who owns such a battery will seek to maximize his revenue."
That has been my ultimate feeling. However, my hope would be that PbC might me heavily favored in terms of price and performance. If you have the ability to participate, why wouldn't you. And at some point, as you stated, supply would eventually outstrip demand.
Thanks to all above. I very much appreciate the kind thoughts. All I did was take a trip, write a summary, and then the APCs took off, amazingly, almost 40,000 comments ago.
It's the quality, intelligence and intensity of the commenters, the Axionistas, that make this unique forum work. The APCs have evolved into a magnet of self-correcting knowledge.
I'll take literary license and compare what's going on here to an evolving saga, repleat with protagonists, antagonists, opportunities, risk, disagreement, friendships, logic, humor and hope.
It's been well over 100 APCs since I turned the keys over to the Axion Power Hosts. Every time I see a new APC link to the next, I always "Like" the Axion Power Host who created the link. It's my small way of appreciation for their efforts for well over a year of hosting, of which I view as extraordinary.
There are so many questions left unanswered, so much more yet to learn, so many surprises yet to occur, so much more digging left to do, that I believe the APCs will continue evolving and unfolding way past double the current tally of comments.
Going six months forward, I'm very much looking forward to the next Shareholders Conference, to share some more facetime with even more Axionistas than I did last year.
Thanks again, but it's all of you who deserve genuflections of praise and applause.
Axion Power Residential Energy Storage Hub Certified To UL, CSA Safety Standards Paves Way for Commercialization of "HUB" Installations with Secure Home Power, Storage and Grid Connection Capabilities
HUB gets certified. Only a couple weeks later than anticipated. For those who suffered with ZBB trying to get certified this is a wonderful testament to the management staff. Atta Boys to all of Axion management and staff.
The PR was convenient in crowing about how they didn't commit to anything "back in September," but their talk at the conference call, was not circumspect in my opinion.
There's no way to measure what damage to the stock ... which may at this very moment be in some price measurement period for an offering ... was done by failure to meet the expectations they set in the conference call.
I specifically asked about this and pointed out the ZBB situation, but TG could have hedged a lot more than he did. Would love to know just informed he was about what ZBB went through. Maybe he was far too busy running the biz to notice, but you gotta think he would know about it be very careful in his statements. Even though he put the blame for any miss on the testing lab in his answer, he didn't go out of his way to demonstrate knowledge of how often UL certs get delayed.
We'll never know what happened once they missed the date ... whose a$$es got kicked by TG (or Joe P???) at that point ... there might be an Atta-Boy involved in that :-)
My impression from being an "interested observer" in the ZBB saga is that these delays are common and predictable, but I'm certainly not an expert in the process or "politics."
BTW, I'm sorry if my reply sounds harsh. However, we all have hopes that Axion becomes a "prime time player" over the next 5 years. To do that, they need to be prepared for markets that are VERY unforgiving for expectations that are set and not met.
As Cramer pounds all the time ... UPOD ... Under Promise, Over Deliver.
WTB, I understand your frustration, but I gotta say that I wasn't at all surprised when they didn't get UL certification in December. People/companies promise things to others all the time that are going to get done in December and then they aren't. With Thanksgiving and Christmas bookending the month, nothing gets done on time because people are out on vacation and such. I'm sure the UL certification company promised Axion that all the i's would be dotted and all the t's would be crossed in December, but experience has shown me that it rarely happens. I'm just happy it got done by the first week in January and now we can move forward and see if there really is a market for the HUB.
I hope Axion has sales announcements that were waiting on UL to close and to stagger through the month. Unfortunately, I was let down by the ZBB's close rate immediately after certification.
In ZBB's case, most of the announcements had already come and were waiting on UL to install.
I don't like that you get a "hand" cursor --- which implies that clicking does something --- when you hover your mouse over the house, the road, or the transmission towers; and clicking doesn't do anything.
To a first-time visitor who might know nothing about Axion, the website screams "defect" directly in his ear.
I worked as a software engineer for 20 years, 10 in web environments.
I noticed 2 oddities on the rotating pictures, but wasn't sure whether it was because I was looking at them on a Linux system in the Chrome browser or not. (and even that shouldn't be an excuse)
1) one of them has a caption including PBCA with the registered trademark symbol.
What's with the A????
2) a second one says something about tomorrow's demanding energy needs, but this does weird stuff where there should be the apostrophe ... throwing in an A and some type of Funky "E"
Really shouldn't be that tricky!
Glad for the improvements, but let's finish the job.
Also, when you click on one of those pictures, it should do something interesting like take you directly to a further description of the caption.
I also think that the pictures of the super expensive homes, while they perhaps make sense to all of us that know about the Residential Hub, might seem a little odd to someone just getting started with the company.
it is not an "A" but rather a "registered" mark. the funky symbols are also being used by your computer to replace other symbols it doesn't recognize .... the web designer used a font you don"t have in your own computer. looks fine on my iPad.
DRich: "Whatever happened to good ole ascii characters"
From an old (and still) "keyboarder" or CLI (Command Line Interface) if your prefer, "GUI" happened. I resisted for a long time as I'm not fast at learning the menu structures and moving mice, but over time was able to blend (what I hope is) the best and most efficient (read "fastest" for me) together. I guess that was out of necessity though.
I don't "sweat the small stuff", like characters not appearing correctly, usually, and can add fonts if needed, although I've never had the desire yet.
Wtb: "Does anyone know the details of what changes, if any, there are, including whether you can or can't see them on Level II?".
All I've been told by ETrade over the years is that the OTC desks have great latitude in what they do and that the (ETRade OTC desks apparently) OTC desks put the AON orders "in their pocket" as far as aggressively pursuing filling them. It's more work for those folks and I guess they chase the "easy money" first.
Any rules related to them were never discussed, which I *think* they would have mentioned since I was complaining to them about failure to fill AON orders that *should* have filled, based on T & S data.
LabTech: Then you ought to enjoy this - I LoL when I saw it.
At 09:53:39 the buy:sell was 849.08:1 on 85K shares w/VWAP $0.3005.
If pps maintains or improves and volume comes in large, the MMs will be shorting to beat the band to try and stay in the game, regarding their positions on VWAP basis.
There is a mid-blend fund on Morningstar that I have been watching. Last year it owned 5.4M shares. Last quarter it showed that it owned 941,190. Yesterday I checked it and they had sold another 575,292 only 365,898 shares were left. I would bet an entire stick of chewing gum that that 300k offer at .31 is the end of that fund and could very well be the end of our sellers.
Those are a few ifs, probably's and maybes in there but it looks like it fits a decent pattern, and one that would fit into Manatuck Hill's ending position. Since their shares were registered in street name in 2010 and out of the stock certificates they wouldn't be showing up in HTL's short sells. Here is a link to the morningstar page.
jak---I used to subscribe to M*. Would be nice to identify that fund.
When I asked JP about his view on whether Manny Hill's shares would show on the FINRA short reports, IIRC he said yes, because an attorney opinion would still be needed, etc. But when I tt a rep from Continental Stock Transfer & Trust, they said the restrictive legend can be removed w/o a sale. E.g., pursuant to Rule 144, if an acceptable opinion, stk pwr, etc. is processed. Then those shares are just like any other registered shares.
I have also been making a mental note of the shares sold thru ATDF over the second half of 2012 or so. While I don't have Time & Sales by MM, based on Level II's bid/ask and time & sales, I think a good case can be made that ATDF has averaged 50k-100k shares sold/day for at least the last 100 trading days, excluding normal retail, such as from TD Ameritrade. And that could be light. There also seems to be little if any correlation between ATDF's consistent big selling and the FINRA short report #'s. I think they are shares being sold by the 2/3/2012 placement investors.
So, ballpark:
26.85mil retail shares from the 2/3/2012 placement minus assumed 20% normal flips (mostly soon after the placement) = 21.5mil left minus either 5mil or 10mil shares (see above) = either 16.5mil or 11.5mil shares left
This week's ATDF selling (including today) says they are still not out of inventory and the desire to sell, but it's hard to imagine they would sell down to zero shares, either. As I've written before, if a strategic investment happens instead, they run the risk of being under-invested in AXPW. So as time goes on without a placement, they may eventually run out of selling.
Last thing---I like how their selling, although major, has been smooth. If they had tried to crush the stock, seems to me they risk TG boxing them out of this next round.
The removal of restrictive legends from privately placed securities is an extremely complex legal process and many of the general rules don't apply in Axion's case because it went public through a reverse merger and still has to jump through regulatory hoops that only apply to former shells. It's not as easy as your discussion with the transfer agent might suggest. Based on everything I know about the applicable rules, I believe all sales by 2009 purchasers must show up in the FINRA short numbers.
Hey Mr.I, ATDF, CDEL, UBSS etc. are all MM's that work the OTC. I don't believe we can come close to accurately figuring out what MM is representing what entity at any given time. From HTL's reports on ATDF, NITE etc jostling both the bid and ask and then other people like Occam's Razor coming on here and saying they were playing with the bid to see if they could walk it up tells me these MM's majority of action is from representing retail sellers/buyers. I know for sure both ATDF and UBSS have both represented my buying blocks at different times.
From the patience of the large UBSS and showing showing their hand I believe they are aware they are the last of major sellers. I believe it is all retail jumping in front of them on the askat this point.
jak---I have been watching Level II almost all day, every day for the past 8 months or so. ATDF has been very consistent in its behavior since at least mid-summer or so (while the other MMs come and go). So much so that I started calling them the "clown car" for fun. Often at least one 25k-50k block offered per day, at the best offer. Eventually gets hit, then they re-up. There isn't anyone else but the 2/3/2012 investors that have close to that kind of consistent, deep supply (at least 5mil-10mil, per my guesstimate). Has been very well managed, too, which is another hallmark of a biggie. Yes, could just be an extremely odd coincidence that a bunch of untethered normal individual investors just so happened to all act in a way that produced an extremely consistent selling outcome month after month, but I'll go with what I think is way more likely.
"So much so that I started calling them the "clown car" for fun."
Mr. I, Very funny and fitting.
I will admit I've never seen anything like it but then again I haven't spent a life time watching. Only recently have I spent more time doing so and it seems so apparent that there is at least one managing entity working the share price. Seems fitting when you also get a taste for what is going on in troll land. Oh to be a witness to what's really going on.
All and all Axion and some of their targets like NSC haven't exactly given that one or two solid pushes to break the back of the controlling party or parties. If you really understand the industries that are being targeted and follow closely real progress is being made. But for a headline sniffing investment community with short attention spans it's really muted so there's no help there. In the end it will be OK IF Axion delivers the goods. I, for the live of me, can't see how this is not going to happen at some point. My only concern is how big it will be in light of capital needs at this level. Not worried about good returns but we all would like great.
iinde---thanks. I've held off for some time about giving some more observations about ATDF's selling. Wasn't convinced it was the 2/2012 investors, but now I am, at least until better observations come in.
So why does it matter, anyway? Good question (thanks to self, lol). Maybe it doesn't. At least not to everyone. But here's one hypothetical case where it might: if I'm one of the 2/2012 investors, still believe Axion can be a home run, and because my superior info (e.g., TG only told us about the possible 2nd tranche on 11/15/2012; the investors have known the whole year) has given me a heads up that Tranche 2 maybe coming, I sell a bit, so now I have only 1/2 of what I started with, I've got both a bigger appetite and wallet than I had 6 months ago. I'm about ready to invest again. PLEASE don't go the strategic route, or else I'll have to buy in the open mkt. And because I may want a bigger than 10% discount for doing a private placement (the 12/2009 deal was registered quickly, but that still took 4 months), I'll be less motivated to push for that illiquidity discount. Especially if we have good news between now and deal time. Heck, maybe another group will even come in and bump us to the side.
Good work MrI. One thing we know for sure is that the liquidation of whatever that fund was on Morningstar will be yet another large amount of selling pressure gone and another big step toward a supply crunch. If you are right with your analysis and there is a different entity also selling it seems to me that will be the only source of supply going forward, which means retailers are selling next to nothing. While we will move up even with that supply, what happens on the day it disappears? Yikes.
jak---thanks, and I'm with ya. I think things are setting up nicely for Axion this year in a lot of different ways. Not yet there, of course, but things are coming together. Even changed my profile pic, lol.
Just one last observation on MM's making the market that I think I finally get and the UBSS block illustrates really well. You or HTL can clear up where I have this wrong. When the MM's see a large block at .31 (in this case UBSS is showing the whole world but many times we only see a standard of 2.5k while they know the true size) they can short sell shares below that, once they get enough to cover they turn around and buy the large block making them nuetral. This is also what shows up in HTL's short sales and this is why short sale percentages tend to climb when the price climbs, they have to short sell below the higher price to take part in the volume. As retail observers all we see is ATDF, as well as other MM's selling non-stop below an already huge block, we think the supply is endless but all of the sudden that huge block is bought up and all that selling below .31 vanishes. As long as their is no more supply at that level we can very quickly go from .31 to say .33 where the new supply is. Does that sound right?
jak---I don't know, as I'm not an expert on MMs/trading. Sorry.
If I understand your example correctly, the MMs lose money: sell at, say, .305 then buy at .31 = (.005). Remember, shorts make money when the closing purchase is below the short sale price.
I am in the camp that says MMs are generally unwilling to take material positions, for long, in penny stocks. They're in the biz for the spread arbitrage and for the fees. Risk your principal and you're ROE plummets, even if you're right (this last part is often counter-intuitive). At least that's how a large part of the rest of the financial industry works.
Gotcha. I am in that same camp they don't do anything risky just your basic market making. I will go back to thinking about the things I know. I just can't get a visual for when MM's are doing the short sales and how and where HTL's data comes into play. I think I am trying too hard. Doesn't matter anyhow it is just for my own curiosity sake into how the market works.
JAK: I agree with MrI that *long-term* holding of penny stocks are unlikely by MMs. However, with good relative volume and volatility I think short-term plays by them are reasonable and are occurring. More on that later.
First, I think the primary thing to remember is we (investors and traders) try to "buy low and sell high" while MMs try to "sell high and buy low". I don't think they would ever have reason to "buy high" unless they somehow got badly out of position and saw possible exit in an acceptable time-frame as unlikely.
The predominate MM attempts should be to post an ask that will get taken when they have a sell order in hand at or below their ask price or they believe that they can cover at a lower price later (if going short w/o a sell order backing it). Scenario # 1 would be the preferred action as it is risk-free. Scenario # 2 would be good to when the increased visibility into the market and the ability to move markets suggests low-risk plays are possible. Well-capitalized organizations could easily pursue both strategies.
The most common scenario s/b a sell order comes in at, say, $0.30, to the market-maker. The MM has the discretion of presenting it on the NBBO facility or not. If the MM believes he can (short) sell at, say $0.31, he could do that and then just take the shares backing the sell order (i.e. "buy" them) and clear them through the normal mechanical clearing process, netting out his short position.
This is normally a T+3 process. But with computers everywhere now and the DTCC adding new facilities over the last couple of years, maybe T+3 is less reliable than in the past?
The MM could decide that he can't improve the $0.30 price much and just go for the fees the exchanges pay. The order can be put on NBBO facility, I guess, and it's again a short sale. Same clearing process follows.
With the volume and volatility present and the MMs ability to post the opening and closing bids and asks, they have the ability to move the market in a desired direction. This opens several opportunities. One of these is to make "covering buys" of their shorted shares. If they can cover the shorted shares at a price lower than that they sold at, and possibly lower than price asked on the original incoming sell order, they achieve a near-risk-free position as cost basis is lowered by one of the two sets of covering shares netting their shorts out.
This leaves them long (T+3 days or sooner) with a cost, after fees received from the exchanges and the difference in the sell price and buy(s) price, that is likely lower than the current market price, which they (attempted to) move in their own favor.
I say "attempted" because there is competition from other MMs that may have no position, a similar position or an opposite position, along with differing mixes of buy/sell orders in hand. Further, a surge in order activity from non-MM participants may overwhelm their ability to keep a preferred position, risk-wise, and force them to either bail or start more aggressive shorting behavior to keep VWAP near the market levels so they can cover when price finally reverses.
They can benefit on short-term moves in either direction, shorting into a descending market and constantly covering at progressively lower prices (if desired) and shorting into a short-term rising market and covering when price falls back. Only in a constantly rising market are they disadvantaged. This is when they need to be acutely aware of their risk restraints. In the worst situation they are constantly shorting into an ever-higher market and praying for a re-trace soon. More than "praying", they will try to move the market in their favor. This likely requires an abatement in both buying pressure and volume (easier to move a low-volume market down, scare the longs into dumping their shares cheaply).
Now, what leads me to think that MMs are getting "friskier" are the possibilities arising from the fact that almost every one is owned by an entity that also has a brokerage facility and the changes seen in the daily shorts sales and my "Dly Sht % of 'sells'".
Some orders may get done intra-broker. The MM can see both sides of the trade and play both of them. The brokerage may also be making the positions, through the MMs, leaving the accounting for the positions predominately on the brokers' balance sheets, not on the MMs, longer-term. This seems most likely from larger players that are well capitalized and looking at a totality of activities rather than just an individual MM-arm profitability. For trades accomplished in-house (intra-broker), the MM need not be involved at all. NASDAQ provides multiple "windows" intra-day for these, and inter-broker and "dark pool" trades as well, to by-pass MMs and avoid fees. However, if done through the MM there are additional profits to be had from the exchanges for execution on the exchanges.
Realization of these possibilities *seemed*, to me, to be supported by the change in shorting activity concomitant with the exit of the "big uglies". My "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values changes during the periods when the "big uglies" were (apparently) starting to appear, then were present for many months and, finally, gone *may* also support this thought. But I would need to add "Dly Sht % of 'buys'" over time to see if that does support it.
Thanks, HTL the most clearly stated I have ever read and it might actually serve as my bridge to comprehending it. (Although I may have to read it a couple dozen more times. don't mind that though it is just a matter of course for me in reading anything that requires my attention for longer than 10 maybe 12 seconds.)
>RBrun357 ... Rosewaters owners & employees might sleep. MaketWatch, who published the article I read, hasn't gotten around to putting a link in the NEWS category of the Axion (AXPW) company info page.
RBrun357, Checked that as well. My reason for checking was to see if Rosewater would let Axion take the lead on this one given it's more important for them to get the recognition than Rosewater in light of the impending capital raise. My thoughts anyway.
>iindelco ... The way UL cert works around the shop here is IDI gets the cert even if the device belongs the BEA or Hologic. Axion was the fabricator and thus would be granted the UL ... not Rosewater.
RBrun357: Not being a marketing type I don't know if this is plausible, but ...
Could Rosewater be first disseminating the news of certification to its distributors and partners, getting *potential* orders from them firmed up and then planning a big PR push about the market acceptance?
ISTM that this might be a good ploy to advance their product in the marketplace.
I am definitely in the belief that Rosewater is going to come out with some excitement regarding this news as it is the "blast of the gun" that they were supposedly waiting for, the race is now on to sell units and generate revenues!
RBrun, At last years annual meeting the numbers being bantered about informally led me to believe that initial orders could easily top 50 HUBS. Now thats only 500 batteries, but it would be a quick start.
John would have to speak to materiality regarding each sale and a PR, but it could also give the potential for a few good press releases in the short term.
I am in agreement with you, I also believe that Joe P has been very busy getting set up to launch when the green flag was waved. I don't believe for a minute that they have been sitting around waiting for the UL approval, I believe they have been moving forward with planning of the first customer installs so when the approval was given all of the electrical engineering and mechanical installation data for the first "many" customers was already complete and the supplies and subcontractors aligned. This is what I would have been doing and from what my opinion is of Joe P I believe he is 10 times as good!
But as iindelco stated, if we don't hear of sales soon I will be disappointed. I believe that if Joe P has good news he will share it.
RBrun, We are on the same page. I thought they would have announced sales at the CEDIA show but I failed to recognize the lack of UL approval. I never worked outside of industry and even though I know better, I wasn't thinking about this requirement.
So as they say in horse racing, "And they're off". There are a bunch of horses in the race but I'm not betting against Rosewater to win, place or show. They have proven genes that carry a bunch of weight.
>RBrun & iindelco ... I'm just being lazy here so l'll ask. Does the PowerCube & MiniCube already have UL certification? I remember somewhere in time that something along these lines were holding international sales.
DRich, I spent years designing machine controls for industry and also specifying control systems for industrial apps. UL is more for consumer targeted products.
There are national and international, industry and also customer specific standards that are more tailored for devices like the PowerCube. I'm also sure that the government has their own specs as well for the military.
DRich: Your comment caused me to think of another reason as well: Axion is the manufacturer and Rosewater has only a three year exclusive agreement, IIRC, if sales objective are reached. If the agreement were to be terminated for any reason AXION would still need the certification to be able to pursue other marketing venues w/o getting re-certified.
Other premium products would add features to produce exceptionally clean undistorted power when used with renewables, such as solar or wind, the utility grid, or from generators.
Suggests that the HUB is the first phase of other equally important developments.
Carlos, Maybe. I read that more to mean that the HUB is a stand alone unit for power modulation, but that you could use it for integration of solar, wind, ect if you added those systems to it.
I think what they (Axion and RoseWater) are both saying is that the HUB is available in multiple configurations, minimally without the ability to accept and control distributed power sources, e.g., a diesel generator or a solar panel.
The UL cert covers the full-blown system, but you don't have to buy it so configured if you don't need or want certain functionalities.
I think if price moves to $0.31 and we get any trades there, we can watch the UBSS $0.31 x 305K ask and see if it reduces. If so, that tells us at least part of it is real and it'll take large volume to take it out *or* the UBSS folks will see the price move, withdraw that ask and re-enter at a higher price.
If no trades go off at that level until the whole quantity goes out we can surmise it was a real AoN ask.
We do have the usual suspects on the ask side (and bid too) jostling: ATDF, TEJS. CDEL hasn't moved yet on the bid side, $0.3025 x "standard" 2.5K. But they have joined the ask side at $0.31 x 10K.
As I recall, Rosewater says they will take great pains with the first (or more?) installs for total customer satisfaction. Good for them. Good for us it's very early in the quarter.
How long?
Assuming the have a few orders in hand, how fast do they ramp?
AXPW, at least for a while, has to manufacture something totally different. They have to deal with new suppliers ... in particular ... Indy Power Systems ... and we are dependent on them doing what they said they could.
TG says they have talked to "Fab" houses to farm this out ... but how soon? Is one of these a potential strategic investor?
Can't wait till the next conference call! It's going to seem like an eternity till it's here :-(
NSC PR busy today as well ... though they need to fire their spell checker/editor ...
"We were excited to see the first shipments of Bakken Crude delivered to east coast refinaries in 2012, and we expect this subsector to grow significantly in 2013. In addition, the continued rebound in the metals and automotive markets during 2012 played an important role for us and for our service area.”"
Intra-day my 100-day calculation for the experimental inflection point calculations just went from slightly negative at -83.68 to positive at 23.30. This puts the 5, 10 and 100-day calculations all above zero and the move has been consistent enough to cause even the 200-day resume its upward trend.
But it is early in the day and we shouldn't take this intra-day reading too seriously yet. The visuals do suggest all this is for real though.
Good find Stephan: ISTM that is a good intro to folks that are just starting to look at this space and it has good cost comparisons as well for new folks.
One error? On slide 23, talking about Li-ion we see "less likely than lead acid to overheat".
Is this true? On traditional LAB or AGM? I don't recall these needing sophisticated monitoring systems to control heat - just good old air-flow design IIRC. ISTR the Li-ion generally needs various cooling beyond that - liquid circulation etc?
Slide 16 lists Xtreme Power, East Penn and Axion as advanced lead-acid competitors. But recent news from Xtreme has shown that if indeed they are still marketing batteries of lead at all, it is not the only chemistry they are offering.
Not necessarily, if there is 40 day look back period similar to the last secondary and Axion can announce some HUB sales and hold out for another two months or 60-70 days ...
Axion was never a good fit for Manatuck's portfolio and when it changed fund managers back in March I suspected that they had been selling for a while because the old manager cared enough about Axion to go to Istanbul in 2010 and to make sure he didn't do any more harm than absolutely necessary. I don't see them as the type to sell in advance of an offering in the hope of buying back in at a lower price.
Special Situations, on the other hand, strikes me as a bit predatory.
Thanks Stefan, Seems some others are learning what AT&T learned when they tried lithium ion for back-up on their network some years ago. Get those BMS's right.
At least these guys were smart enough not to put it in with their infrastructure unlike the install in Hawaii.
"The fire did not affect the nearby substation, as APS installed the equipment for the energy storage system away from the existing infrastructure."
AinB, yeah I saw that, too. Might be related to their 2012 cash flow burn reduction efforts---as TG pointed out early in the last conf call, "Thanks Chuck and thanks for spearheading our 2012 initiative to reduce spending on a cash flow basis. The $3 million net reduction you achieved in spite of the significant added marketing expense we undertook when we strengthened our marketing department including adding Vani Dantam as Senior Vice President Sales and Marketing is truly a job well done. We represented this reduction as part of our go forward roadmap back in January of this year and you led the team in making it happen."
$3mil is a ton for such small overall numbers, so perhaps headcount actually shrunk. Haven't looked at the financials in awhile.
Very rarely does one find good employees from the web, despite what monster.com says. Top battery people are going to be found one by one by reference; gimme-cap operators are local and probably found by local references. Besides, their hiring needs are probably minimal to none at this time.
I would be very surprised if Axion staffed up manufacturing capacity for the HUB because that kind of activity has tremendous space and specialized equipment requirements that would divert its attention from the work of manufacturing batteries. If demand for the HUB ramps quickly, I'll be eagerly awaiting news on an outsource manufacturing relationship.
Started out in a job shop. Axion doesn't want to do this. There are plenty of panel shops that will bury them on labor costs. Get the design right, oversee the first few builds and be done with it. All Axion needs out of this is a channel to sell batteries and a track record of successful product in the field.
Judge's Take - Honeymoon Over With Electric Vehicles
"Much has been said about EVs and plug-ins allowing drivers to avoid the gas pump, but plugging in twice a day can be a bigger hassle than buying gas once a week, especially when you have to deal with interlopers stealing electricity from the reserved WardsAuto charging space. Now we have to devise a locking mechanism.
If auto makers can’t even keep fans like me engaged, winning over new converts is going to be a very tough road indeed."
"I tried to tell myself we should not judge vehicles by the size of their battery or “fuel tank.”
But if we evaluated a gasoline car with a tank that held only two gallons, took 3 to 20 hours to refill, and had an unreliable fuel gauge, it would be savaged."
You do have to wonder whether EVangelicals won't ultimately find themselves in the position of the tomcat who hooked up with a she skunk. It was everything he wanted and more than he could stomach.
OT: perhaps confidence will increase, now that we have UL cert and the ppps held up nicely. Even started nibbling at the UBS block. And on a macro basis, once again, the sky did not fall. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is even at an all-time high. Things could be setting up very nicely for our lil company.
Sky scheduled to fall in late February ... I have every confidence the Congress will work studiously to reduce even more their 9% confidence level over the debt ceiling.
Only after the sky has fallen will they raise it and get on with the real work (however slowly.)
I've heard the sky falling stuff so many times in my investing career that I need a lot more fingers and toes to count them. Yes, the debt ceiling show could easily cause a mkt sell-off, but in the long-run, it will fade to background noise like all the other short-run problems.
As pointed out by Mr Investor, the HUB was the "winner of 2013 Electronic House Product of the Year Award in the power management, conditioning and backup category for its Residential Energy Storage Hub."
The write up on the HUB from Electronic House magazine:
Rick, roger all. It seemed muddled in the way they worded it though, and I think they could/should have done better by it--particularly when it involves one of the key concepts of the product...
metro---nice link. Thx. I wanted to give a shout out to JVeal, who was the 1st to post the Rosewater's news. But on Concentrator 192, so not sure who saw it!
We've all discussed how difficult it is to get UL done in any kind of timeline so we shouldn't judge Axion too harshly for a 3-4 week miss during the holidays. Still, TG seemed awfully confident when he made the forecast.
As I've posted before, it is my impression that there was a backlog of sales awaiting the UL. Now, that might be one or two units, but that would get the ball rolling. To make a long story short, I agree with you iindelco.
Maybe this will have a silver lining because maybe, just maybe, this will be the first of a series of "minor" announcements in the month of January about Axion's various projects which could create a sense of momentum that cumulatively would move the stock dramatically.
You know, I'm beginning to think even a share sale to financial investors will raise the stock price this year. With the funding done, investors will have the confidence to jump in without risk of more dilution or shuttling the doors. After all, it is only a 10% discount to market:
"The share price for this transaction was pre-determined by calculating a 10% discount to market using the Company's volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP)"
So why did the price fall after the 2012 offering? I think it's because it really was going to fall anyway. The price had stalled upon reaching nearly 60 cents and probably had overshot its bounds. The timing for news was terrible, but that's about it.
With major sellers done, we might be fearful for nothing.
The other thing this past year has brought is a lot of bad PR and failure for lithium-ion, which may help assuage nagging fears some fence-sitters may have about threats for Li-ion to ultimately take away Axion's markets...
48---no kidding. When I first started posting here about a year ago, this blog was very sensitive to mentions of lithium-ion. So much so that I commented that it told me that Axionistas thought it was the biggest competitive threat, and a very real one.
While it still remains a concern, naturally, the sensitiivity has been reduced dramatically. Li has its place, and we think we have ours.
Mr I: I don't recall APC commenters being "sensitive" to lithium-ion mentions last year. I believe rather we were more pissed off and angered that all the DC politcos and the DOE were inappropriately backing EVs and lithium battery companies with 100s of millions of US taxpayer dollars...when all of us Axionistas knew better.
A year later and whatcha' know, the lithium hype cycle for plugins...is now unplugged.
The generation that justifiably drove Pb out of paint and gasoline after learning of the hazards to our children and environment went a bit overboard in trying to remove it from batteries.
Well, as I suggested earlier, the daily short sales came back strong, although I didn't expect this much increase to be shown with today's volume, which is just “average” when you look at the averages, in thousands, of 309, 337, 311 and 361 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively. Later in the day when I saw the VWAP holding up well I did start to doubt my earlier assessment though because I knew some longs would be enticed to sell and, more importantly IMO, some market-makers would be enticed (or “forced”?) to short to increase profit potential or protect their positions from excess damage.
The short sales constitute 53.57% of today's “buys”. I've been mulling for some time if this might be even more useful than the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” now. This is because, as opposed to the tendency to “hit the bid” when the “big uglies” were around and heavily selling, the tendency now should be for MMs to short more aggressively on price appreciation, especially if volume is there. It might also reflect my originally-posited “pull” effect by enticing longs to sell, also causing short sales in most(?) cases.
Moving to traditional TA, we now have the third consecutive day of higher highs and lows. The lows have begun to pull above and away from the short-term ascending support begun at the low of 11/13, which I have detailed before and last adjusted around a week(?) ago. This is the same line that caused me to speculate very early on that we might be entering a rising trading channel. We also continue to “push” my experimental upper Bollinger and, if recent past behavior holds, should have another three days or so of this. That's not considering any knock-on effects from today's PR about the PC's UL certification being issued and (hopefully soon?) follow-on Rosewater PR. The traditional 20-period Bollinger bands continue to converge, albeit quite slowly for now.
Something I seldom mention, the PSAR (Parabolic SAR) flipped to bullish mode today.
The close today was above the two new long-term descending resistance lines I recently added. We also, AFAICT, traded at or above the lower one. I'll detail these only in my instablog, for those with an interest, so that they can duplicate them and judge for themselves. This will spare folks without an interest.
We've solidly left the 50-day SMA, $0.2808 today, behind. Since we did have price appreciation today, we won't get the second day of falling 50-day SMA I suggested yesterday. Instead, it has started to rise (+$0.0002 today over yesterday) and unless price falls tomorrow, the 50-day SMA will continue to slowly rise for at least a couple days more.
Last, the potential C & H (Cup & Handle) pattern formation I mentioned yesterday continues to shape up nicely. When (and if) we hit a high around $0.3179-$0.3199, we will have the right-side “rim” in place and it could be either a “jumping off point” or the start of the handle formation, which can form either in a concave or convex form (that is, “sag” lower initially or “bubble” up initially, either one after a possible very short sideways movement).
The MACD, which DRich brought to our attention a short while ago, continues to strengthen – now reading 0.004 and 0.002 for the signal and average lines respectively.
In summary, the long-term down trend seems certainly at risk of being broken.
On my experimental stuff we see the low, the high and the VWAP all above all averages except the 200-day SMA. This trending up has been three consecutive days now. The VWAP 25-day SMA has crossed above the 100-day, as I mentioned it would yesterday. The 10-day should cross both of those tomorrow, leaving only the 50-day and 200-day “out of order”.
I want to also mention that the calculated long-term linear trend lines continue to lose correlation. This is a result of the price movement being of sufficient magnitude that the daily new calculations can't “keep up”. They have weakened further from their highs of 80%-82% to 77%-78% now.
Buy:sell, and the averages, are solidly back where they belong now. Only average trade size remains in a weak area.
Regarding my experimental inflection point calculations I'll only say that they continue to support movement upward, as first suggested again just before Christmas. As I mentioned later, that first rise was weak and short-lived and I expected the new set-up, which came around right near the EOY, to be stronger and more sustainable. In support of that, the 100-day period closed above zero at 51.51, placing it in positive territory with the 5 and 10-day readings. The 50 and 200-day calculations are also on the rise. Only the 25-day is still fighting the trend. This is setting up to suggest a very strong upward movement, IMO.
“Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, new trend lines discussion and inflection points detailed discussions omitted from the concentrator.
Edmund: Don't feel badly. John "warned" us a while back that the days of easy "bottom feeding" might be over. Kent ls posted his experience with trying to do that recently. Relative to the appreciation you'll likely see, you probably won't care much, other than from and egocentric POV, which still plagues me occasionally.
No mention of when in 2013, but at least it's consistent with what the recent NS Sustainability Report said. Maybe now we can change the Wet Paint sign to Damp. Or Wet-ish.
Mr. I & Metro, Just to add to the conversation since "ya'll" brought it up and I was reviewing it last night. Note the comments on the OTR loco. "We concurrently are developing a next-generation battery-powered six-axle road locomotive based on NS 999 design improvements."
concurrent - Happening at the same time as something else.
So that's two wet surfaces we have to watch dry.
"Leading the charge with NS 999 Five years ago, Norfolk Southern began development of a battery-powered locomotive, part of a larger company initiative to explore cleaner, alternative-powered engines to save on fuel costs, lower emissions, and reduce reliance on foreign oil sources. Two years into the effort, in fall 2009, we unveiled NS 999, a prototype electric four-axle switcher locomotive. The eco-friendly unit, built on a 1969 model GP38 body, was powered by a bank of lead-acid batteries and equipped with novel regenerative braking technology designed to recharge the batteries during operation. Since then, we have worked with industry partners Axion Power International and TVM Control Systems and with scientists at Penn State University to address technical challenges posed by the locomotive’s battery management system. In 2013, we plan to reintroduce an upgraded NS 999 with new advanced lead-carbon batteries and an overhauled battery management system that addresses technical issues we encountered with the prototype. We believe this rebuilt “next generation” model will provide a foundation for the development of economically viable battery-powered locomotives to help reduce emissions and reliance on fossil fuels. The overhauled NS 999 will be powered by fewer batteries: 864 of the higher-capacity lead-carbon batteries vs. 1,080 batteries on the prototype. We concurrently are developing a next-generation battery-powered six-axle road locomotive based on NS 999 design improvements. “The whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings while the batteries charge and discharge with very high current, and we absolutely are plowing new ground with this,” said Gerhard Thelen, vice president of operations planning and support. “We think we can make this work, giving us fuel savings as well as pollution-free point-source emissions.”"
tocoadog, Yes it's a very important point and I thank you. I means we should be watching for signs on advancing the OTR app. in conjunction with completion of the NS999 upgrade.
I thought this might be the case given the delay in the NS999 and NSC's work on the Leader app. I think the OTR app. is really a parallel effort to the 999 slug now because I think it's been held up by the 999. So I think they are now parallel programs and not serial. Not normally the case in risk reduction but since they have done all the Penn State ground work it may be the correct path at this point given the opportunities offered for fuel/emissions reduction.
Makes me think the recent DOE grant also palyed a big part in the slow going we observed. And after that is when we got the increase in the battery order size too? Me thinks it all adds up.
HTL, Let's look at the government announcement again. Not yard but "road" loco. BTW, IMO the OTR loco, ignoring the BMS, will be a far easier application than the yard loco. It's more a power cube with an application specific BMS and some switching. Although I will admit there is some risk to this thought process depending on them adding enhanced traction depending on how they are looking to take advantage of the stored energy.
"“The work that Penn State and Norfolk Southern Railroad are doing together to design and develop a hybrid road locomotive..."
FWIW the jungle drums are saying that the batteries shipped in late December. Since the contract was announced in April and performance is an ordinary course of business matter, I don't expect confirmation before the financial statements issue in late March.
Rick could probably answer this better than I, but don't forget that NSC was first trying to use the PbC, and then switched over to the 30HT. Right there are months of delays, because not only was NSC dealing with fewer but larger batteries, they also had to redesign the racking systems. I would think also that the Battery Management System had to be modified.
I can't recall exactly the date, but when TG first announced that NSC was doing biz with Axion, the biz then were PbCs. Therefore the expectations of time frames probably changed, too, when PbCs were substituted with 30HTs.
When companies begin fleet testing or whatever it's called in the railroad industry, isn't it reasonable to assume that they will take delivery of the batteries right before they begin testing? I can't imagine they would want the batteries delivered just so they could sit in a warehouse until everything else was ready.
I am assuming in the case of BMW, that they are in the process of modifying the electrical systems of the hundreds of test vehicles now, and will take the batteries only after everything else is ready.
Would it be reasonable to look at delivery as the last step before testing actually begins?
Automotive batteries are typically Group 24 or Group 27, while trucking more commonly uses a Group 29, 30 or 31 case. The 30HT is simply a tall Group 30 case. The PbC technology doesn't care if it's built into a Group 24, 27 or 30 case. They're all the same battery and the only thing that changes is the electrode dimensions.
We know the original NS 999 used 1,080 AGM batteries but I've never been able to find a clear specification of the BCI Group size. Since Enersys makes the Odyssey for heavy applications, it would not surprise me to learn that NS used a Group 30 case size. The 30HT is a little bit taller, but as I recall the primary racking issue had to do with air circulation rather than battery size.
In the original NS 999, they used a tray system that restricted air flow around the batteries. As a result, the batteries tended to develop "hot spots" at the bottom. The new racking is open to maximize air circulation and minimize hot spots, which can be very important if you're trying to push a couple hundred amps of charging current into the battery.
In June 2010 Axion announced that it had been hired "to develop a battery management system that would allow rail locomotives to operate on battery power and recharge their batteries through regenerative braking."
While many missed the significance of the announcement, the fact is you don't hire a battery manufacturer to build a BMS that will be used to control batteries manufactured by somebody else.
Milhouse> AGM batteries that are filled with electrolyte at the factory and taken through the formation process don't particularly like sitting on a shelf. It's better for the batteries if they're shipped as close as possible to the installation date.
If you think back to the November CC, Tom said the NS batteries had been built "in duff" and they were awaiting shipping instructions. To complete a duff battery, you have to add the electrolyte, close the final seals and run the battery through the formation process. It typically takes a couple days.
I've always maintained (IMHO) that the government grant was for the OTR locomotive and work on the NS999 was not delayed because of the government grant. Don't know why the 999 project was delayed - or if it even was. Just seems that NS has their own schedule that would entail probably a lot more technical issues than we can imagine that need resolved in a correct fashion.
John, This old press release calls out the exact P/N of the odyssey batteries that failed in the gen I NS999. So you'll have the case size but it really doesn't matter given the tub vs rack info.
John Who belongs to "knowhow' in this case ? I mean ,if another railway company wants to follow NSC path in the future,can Axion use his knowledge or is it restricted in some ways to NSC/Axion cooperation.
Tongas, Just a guess, but Axion doesn't want to be in the loco rebuild market. Probably leave all the info with NSC to do the refurbs and maybe NSC will license other refurb outfits in other locations This lets Axion do what they do best, make electrodes.
NS has an issued patent on its design for the NS 999 and OTR.
The basic BMS is owned by Axion but the system designed for NS under contract probably belongs to NS.
All the other rights will be determined by the contracts between the parties which have not yet been made public. Without those contracts, any speculation would be irresponsible. Tom is a big fan of defined time periods and performance criteria, so it wouldn't surprise me to hear that there were some conditions. I know he mentioned that Axion was working with others in the railroad space but again there have been no follow up details.
Stilldazed Got your point,and do understand that Axion's job is to built their proprietary electrode. But doing the BMS would put Axion in the first row of choice(among battery makers),If another railway would like to follow Nsc path,because they simply did it already,they would have the batteries and know how. That's more my point
JP: Yep, agreed that the racking system had to be redesigned to accommodate both the larger size of the 30HT, while also increasing ventilation between the racks. IIRC, the 30HT is about 30% taller, while the footprint remains the same. So possibly due to the increased height of the 30HT, the original racking system had to be redesigned, especially as you indicated, because the previous racking system created hot spots.
Previously, when racking systems were discussed, there was the notion that a racking system could very easily be constructed. Having in a previous life sold filing systems and large-sized movable shelving, it's a piece of cake if one is building them in an open space with standard sizes. But when one gets into the territory of holding over 800, 90lb. plus batteries, inside a piece of equipment whose entire life is spent bumping into things, I'll quibble that the racking system has far more specialized considerations than just ventilation. It's unknown territory for a yard switcher.
Since this is all new ground, all custom made, and quite possibly fabricated in house, the shelving has to be conceived in such a way as to be easily replicated and installed, and then to have the durability to last 20 or 40 years.
No, I'm not forgetting delays due to 3rd party testing, but last year, when we were all hoping that when NSC ordered $400,000 worth of PbCs (30HTs), that the order would have been shipped long before now. My gut feeling is that racking issues, from figuring proper ventilation to the gauge of the metal used, played a significant roll in the delay...now into 2013.
Maya, For the sake of clarity the footprints are not the same as can be seen by the data John provided. Doesn't matter too much in this conversation because we know NSC had to design and install new racks anyway.
BTW, If I recall correctly in one of my Penn State readings I do remember emphasis on the rack design for various reasons. I'm sure air flow was one of them. An obvious one that seemed to be overlooked in the first NS999 trial using the AGM LAB's .
Maya, as JP describes below, a 30HT is just shorthand for the outside dimensions of the battery, regardless of innards. The innards may be a flooded lead, lead gel, AGM, or PbC. All the automotive-sized batteries (24, 27, 30, etc.) are fairly close in size, and would not significantly impact the battery count or number of connections. NS may have wanted larger batteries for somewhat more capacity, or smaller batteries for better airflow.
There are larger sizes, such as 8D, but there has been no discussion I know of using this size battery. Eventually, if there is a market, Axion may make large 2 volt batteries, such as http://bit.ly/13as18O, that weigh over 200 kg each. I do not know of any inherent reason why PbC could not be made in this size.
I don't know of any technical reason the PbC can't be made in larger sizes, but the New Castle plant isn't equipped to build anything much larger than Group 30 and 31.
JP---"I don't expect confirmation before the financial statements issue in late March" One of the valuable things this blog has provided is a way to get some of our info outside of official channels. We have at least two for NS999 developments that I'm aware of. So just maybe we'll get some info before the end of March, that way.
Speaking of unofficial channels, any update on ePower that you are ready, willing and able to share? Thanks, and fully understand the sensitivity, so no answer at all is of course fine!
The other reason I bring up the OTR loco is that the timing is right given a statement made by TG in the past. One of the routes he mentioned was in the Crescent Corridor.which NSC is Phasing in. The example given was to the rail yard in Memphis from the East coast.
Axion, Norfolk Southern Team-up on Novel Battery Locomotives
"In an interview with Hart Energy Publishing, Axion’s Granville said the all-electric locomotive not only would have applications in local switch-yard service, but also on line-haul moves, the latter as part of a consist of several locomotives at least partly employing diesel power.
One such line-haul route under consideration is New Jersey to Memphis, he said. This route has enough changes in elevation to allow regenerative braking to recharge the Axion locomotive batteries, he explained."
Regarding the NS-999 pic, sources indicate the picture credit should go to Keith Burkey.
I found it in the July 2009 part of this page: http://bit.ly/1064Iz5 and includes this text:
"Keith Burkey spots NS 999, a BP-4 class fully battery powered switcher. The frame belongs to NS 2911, and notice only a small portion of the long hood was used. The cab is new as well. This unit has no generator to charge the batteries except regenerative braking from Brookville Manufacturing. It is designed to be plugged in when not in use. Photo by Keith Burkey"
Thanks for the source document WTB. It was not my intent to strip it from the site. I'd remembered seeing the photo but couldn't remember where so I used a Google picture search function but failed to open the function to take me to the site. My bad for sure..
To add to Maya's comments: The good news is that the carbon electrodes reduce the density of the PbC batteries somewhat. Spreading the mass out a bit should help the problems with inertial loading when the slug bumps something massive.
Personally, i would want an instrumented history of the types of acceleration loads experienced by a yard slug, to see if more then just a stiff metal rack is needed.
It probably makes a difference as to what axis the acceleration forces are applied to the PbC. A bit of non-rigid mounting to reduce peak force might be a good thing. You don't have to drop a battery on concrete to break it in an invisible way.
Iindelco: "Fungible" applies, in this case I think, to both the $ and part of the results. I think anything I learn on the yard slug that can also affect the OTR design can be thrown into the OTR expense category. This reduces the expense allocated to the yard slug while simultaneously benefiting the books, the yard slug and the OTR.
Justification exists in the fact that *many* lessons learned on the yard slug apply to the OTR and should provide a "cost savings" (wink, wink) because what was spent in the past on the yard slug allows it to be a test mule for *certain* functions that will apply to the OTR. By golly! We can use this on the yard slug too and it's free (gov't paid for it)! :-))
HTL, I can swallow those thoughts without even a mild level of gagging. It's a fair assessment IMO. That being said I'm no accountant, knowledgeable on tax law or anything where you would give my opinion much weight in how one might justify moving monies around in these areas.
And I can assure you that the many programs I managed from 10's of thousands to millions of dollars, well the financial department watched me like a hawk. Got my hands slapped a few times for mixing up my assignments of what I called capital, tooling and expense. Well, until I learned the right words when I sat down with the experts. And strange glaring looks don't bother me. 8-P
BTW, You're not trying to tech me new words are you? I've already proven I could spend a fair deal of time in the area.
Hummm. It occurs to me that the "publicity risk" of an OTR version is much lower then that of a yard slug. No one but the train engineer and the technical types can call the performance of an OTR electric a success or a failure. No sharp pass/fail boundary to fall over. It could help SLIGHTLY with fuel economy and still be an "advertised success".
Unlike the slug, it won't just stop moving, even with a worse case power train failure. At least if it is part of a consist, it can't ;-)
I originally posted this in mid-November and now appears that the first two items on my list will get checked off. Now if we could just get the PC sales by 15 February. Added a double-dash bullet point today, 5 January as the opportunities keep expanding.
Within next 3 months: Before 15 Feb 2013 -Sales of HUB -Ship NS batteries for NS999 for which already have purchase order. - If TG says PC RFP's are near maturity I think we get a sale or two. When I tried to get some type of comment on PC sales a couple of CC's ago, TG completely stonewalled me. I think him saying near maturity means within next few months and that he is very positive about Axion's chances.. --Sale of battery sets for 5-10 trucks to ePower.
3-6 months (Feb 2013 -May 2013) -Sale of more batteries to trucking for further testing APU (APU added 5 Jan). -Another couple of PC sales. -Purchase order for string testing batteries for hybrid locomotive. -Small sales of test batteries to OEM's both auto and trucks for testing. -more HUB sales
6 months to 1 year (May 2013 - Nov 2013) - purchase order for sale of batteries for NS999 clones - iindelco and HTL are salivating. - hybrid locomotive purchase order for batteries - fleet testing batteries to OEM's and auto - several more PC sales - continued HUB sales - PbC sales to APU and other trucking refitters (5 Jan refitters = ePower) and OEM's for testing. -other locomotive manufacturer testing
1-2 years (Nov 2013 - Nov 2014) -OEM auto purchase order for small production model - -more NS 999's -locomotive stop/start sales -purchase order for more hybrid locomotives for testing -more PC and HUB sales -trucking, APU sales.
2-3 years (Nov 2014 - Nov 2015) -all above plus larger orders for trucking, auto and rail.
Since one or two new markets for PbCs seem to pop up every year for the last couple years, maybe we will have another market or two reveal themselves. i.e. marine.
Stefan, I like the thought of marine way over the thought of anything to do with the utilities. The later is too mixed up with the government. These people can't distinguish the forest from the inside of their colon as a group in most cases.
We like the PbC because it seems pragmatic in many applications. This means nothing to government and their ilk.
Stefan, You may be right about this...from Exide's Q1 2013 transcript:
"Military contracts in Industrial Energy Europe and Rest of World are up almost 300% over the prior year first quarter. These profitable multiyear contracts are primarily submarine reserve power batteries."
They had given a revenue number for all submarine contracts in one of their previous transcripts, but I can't remember what it was. I think $10-20 million, but that's really a guess.
Milhouse I'm thinking subs are more of an energy application than instantaneous power, and with space at a premium, I don't expect many PbCs there. This is not the voice of knowledge I'm just guessing.
You may be right, froggey. But with new market opportunities springing up all the time, I can always hope. We should do alright even if no PbC's end up on any submarines.
As I understood from JP comments recently,Axion 's lines are such that they can product car/truck size batteries /electrodes.
in leisure boating industry ,these are the sizes mostly used .It should not be too difficult for PcB to gain shares in this market once Axion's products will be more widespread known/sold.
Tongas I forgot. Sometime, probably pre Y2K end of civilization event. I read a retail ad for a sub battery, weighed a bit under a ton. (1,600 lbs, I think.) Without recharging, it was supposed to be able to power the average house for 6 months. Lifespan 15- 20 years. IIRC
Tiny bit more exposure of the 999, though it's some of the LAB 1.0 work. I'd hazard to guess that they are finishing up on the LAB 1.0 research, but it may be orchestrated to generate some buzz for them main 999 release. Perhaps the sensors can be used to improve PbC charging.
Researchers seek longer battery life for electric locomotive "We wanted to reverse the sulfation to rejuvenate the battery and bring it back to life,"
Interesting find, wtb. Might even work. Concept seems so simple, I would have thought an engineer would have already tried it with a modified hyperbolic cooling tower at a power plant.
If the power calculations are correct (they are over my abilities to verify), the challenge will be sufficiently inexpensive construction of the cement structure and base-level turbines to be economic. My SWAG is that capital cost will make it uneconomic. I look forward to real data and testing, and hope my SWAG is wrong.
Somewhere on the net I've seen a plan for the same sort of thing using water. Here's a hydroelectric set up using vortexes (it says) but under water. http://bit.ly/104o87m They did a test in Aug 2010 but I haven't heard anything about this since.
Here's a different wind power claim.(I've been watching for a couple of years. BTW My physics was never up to this but G Doty assures me it won't work.) 200% Greater Power Output 80% Less Land Use <3¢ per kWh (less than natural gas) 50% Shorter Towers 50% Less Maintenance <2 mph Wind Speeds Essentially it is a pipe up in the air that brings the air down to the ground where the turbine is. Neat idea if it works but you have friction losses, back pressure from the turbine etc.
Axion Power Concentrator 193: Jan. 3: Latest News 326 comments
Latest News, Articles and Presentations...
"ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.
"Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.
13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC -- Sliderocket of John Petersen's presentation at the ELBC.
Dr. Ender's Dickinson's Presentation on Axion's PbC -- Link to his slideshow at the 13th ELBC.
Axion Power's 3rd Quarter Report and Press Release -- Seeking Alpha also published the transcript of the conference call here.
RoseWater Joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study -- Testing will determine the effects of residential energy storage systems on local power grids.
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(updated thru 12/28/12)
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Links to valuable Axion Power research and websites:
The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.
Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.
Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.
Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
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This post has 326 comments:
You're really going over and above these days!
We all owe you a debt of gratitude Maya. Let me be the first to offer my sincere thanks.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/UqCyII
I'm looking forward to reading the first chapter of the new novel and cashing in some $5 Axion stock this year.
The concentrators certainly keep our spirits up. Many thanks for that.
Congratulations: 40,000 comments and 192 followers.
Happy Year 2013-Carlos
That's rapid-fire for that crew.
Asks are holding steady ATM at $0.3043 x 10K since 14:00, marked down from CDEL's $0.3044 by - you guessed it - ATDF.
We going to see a little pop shortly?
HardToLove
Fed says it’s running out of bullets
Commentary: FOMC signals that bond purchases may stop
http://bit.ly/WgQu6e
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — For the first time since the financial crisis started five years ago, the Federal Reserve has at last made its first signal that its extraordinary loose monetary policy will start to get tougher.
o be sure, the change isn’t gigantic. There’s no sense that interest rates will increase from the near zero levels that have lasted for over four years.
And the Fed only last month initiated a new bond-buying program, to top off a plan to add more mortgage-backed securities that had only been around since September.
But, the minutes show, the central bank is starting to say, enough is enough. Of the crowd that supported bond buys, a few say they should continue until the end of the year, and several said it could stop, or slow, well before then.
There are two possible alternatives. One is that the Fed is expecting a big upturn in the economy, so that there just won’t be a need for more juice in the form of bond purchases.
That’s not really the case, however. The Fed only expects the unemployment rate in the mid-7% range by the end of the year, from 7.7% in November. And they don’t forecast any serious inflation issues, either.
So the alternative explanation is that the Fed just doesn’t think there’s much benefit to bond buys for the broader economy. The minutes say the program to buy MBS has been “effective” but also that the benefits were “uncertain” and that risks are growing as the balance sheet rises.
To put it differently: the Fed thinks the economy isn’t that great and there’s very little inflation to worry about, but its primary program to improve the economy doesn’t do very much.
It’s a clear admission the Fed is running out of gun powder. And that’s quite a shot it has fired to the markets.
— Steve Goldstein , Washington bureau chief
I have been amazed that the Fed has been able to prop up the economy with this program. I thought I knew something about economics and did not believe what has happened was possible. Makes me proud to know that our officials actually trusted Big Ben to stabilize things.
At this point I'm just watching Ben operate with my mouth having fallen open.
While I thought it might be done. I don't think it should have been done. Basically the Fed is sticking the bad loans on the taxpayers and saving the banks. I would have gone with Iceland's solution. They seem to be getting better also. Yet they don't have the massive added debt the US taxpayer and ROW has.
The govt. kicked the can down the road.
Each time the can gets heavier but that's apparently for tomorrow.
I'm a believer that the Keynesian idea only works if the elected and nonelected officials will stop at the right time and take it back.
I don't believe they will do it if not forced. The 'Fiscal Cliff' was a baby step in that direction. (Which I've been waiting to see since the set it up a year and a half ago.)
I think things would have been worse in the past without Ben but I think the future would have been better. The present would be a WAG. ( as are the other two.)
Interesting economic times to watch.
P.S.
A TFH friend of mine was convinced monetary system would collapse and gold would be at $50K OZ by the end of 2010.
He still does expect it to happen. Soon...
I have one of those doomsday economic friends also. If Ben can pull this off, God Bless Him. He has done better than I imagined. If he can do better later, then make him King. I am simply amazed.
But I amaze easy, so its no big deal. After all Ben simply kept us from the current fate of Europe. Not an easy task. And much more bad terrain to traverse to safety.
I agree, I can easily see this having been much worse.
And I agree with you. We still have the opportunity for it to get so much worse.
Happy New Year. May you fair well over whatever personal Cliff you face in 2013.
I'm still waiting for a Keynesian solution & we'll get another chance, but it will hurt a lot more.
10-100 / 10-10a / clear.
No problem I'm willing to drop it.
I could draw up a hundred points for either side.
I know I don't know enough to truley defend my position, and we are where we are, and will do what we will do.
Interesting to watch tho.
http://bit.ly/TzMBMK
"Boman said the town will know by Feb. 23 if it has been selected for the program, and if it is, the microgrids would have to be operational within a year."
Maybe CPST involved? "generator at the sewage-treatment plant, which would use the methane gas produced there for fuel. "
One could look at the possible subterfuge angle or they could say "Hey, microgrid projects can not possibly be done on a "city wide" basis without granting a monopoly. That is how the entire utility system works. Obviously cheating must be monitored. But test projects often turn up very good products. Lets hope this one works out positive.
http://bit.ly/Wpf2dC
http://bit.ly/UsIf93
Not sure if it scales to the level required by these projects, but my guess is that the projects will combine a number of different generation sources.
Turbines are particularly good for continuous, stable, very long term power production, but the high cost is often a challenge. ICE piston equipment is generally better for variable load, intermittent service, and works with dirtier fuels.
'The only exception would be the generator at the sewage-treatment plant, which would use the methane gas produced there for fuel. "The town would rather try and develop that one," Boman said. *"It's basically a diesel engine."*'
# Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 17000, Vol 178207, AvTrSz: 4569
Min. Pr: 0.2951, Max Pr: 0.3094, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3015
# Buys, Shares: 20 41100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3034
# Sells, Shares: 16 116607, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3015
# Unkn, Shares: 3 20500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2976
Buy:Sell 1:2.84 (23.1% “buys”), DlyShts 7450 (4.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.39%
Daily short sales doing the usual yo-yo: very low again today. Considering the buy:sell I'm guessing the market-maker(s) had plenty of shares flowing in from recent activity at lower prices short sales at lower prices. Here's some VWAP prices, which I believe the MMs work off of as well: $0.2840, $0.2854, $0.2813, $0.2807, $0.2803, $0.2783, $0.2882, $0.2896, $0.2831, $0.2870, $0.2840 and $0.2955. This would also, IMO, account for the bad buy:sell ratio as the MM could hit the bid quite a bit and still make money with yesterday's and today's VWAP.
Looking at the traditional TA stuff, I'm feeling decent about what I see. First, we had higher a low and high and closed almost flat - $0.3047 vs. Today's $0.3043. Considering volume, not bad. Although we didn't get the confirmation of the run up taking hold, we didn't break it yet either.
Every oscillator I watch continued to essentially hold flat or improve in spite of the low volume: RSI dropped only ~0.04, accum/distribution improved ~0.08, MFI ~+11 to bullish now at ~53.5, momentum down ~0.017 to ~1.09, stochastic continues to rise and ADX holds flat while its components improve to -DI down two to 13 and DI+ is up one to 20.
The MACD Drich has been watching has now moved positive to +0.002 and +0.03 for the average and signal readings respectively.
The two new long-term descending resistances I added yesterday are, again, right atop the price. That didn't stop the price range from moving slightly higher though. Further, the medium term rising trend I established starting at the low of 11/13, which caused me to suggest we might be entering a rising trading channel, continues to offer support. With my final adjustment made several days ago, price still continues to stay at or above it, with only one intra-day penetration below it yesterday, 1/2/13, when we had the nice volume.
The traditional 20-day Bollingers are converging, suggesting that the move out of range is drawing near. My experimental 13-period settings have the upper band being “pushed”, suggesting, based on b past behavior. The most recent case pushed it six days and today is only the second day. The time before that was the same.
If the pattern I'm seeing holds, we have an excellent chance of completing the “cup” portion of a “cup and handle” formation. According to Bulkowski, this should take another two weeks or so, although the trend I'm seeing right now suggests less time could be needed. If it does complete, we should see a modest rise off that pattern. A side-effect is that we would break above those two new long-term descending trend lines and would confirm a break out. That would free price to move to $0.33 and then $0.35. Of course, this could occur without the formation of the handle – the right rim of the cup could just keep on running up.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size today dropped back to the very low end of what I think is “retail” - not surprising I guess since, as JP mentioned, the market-maker(s) have to work harder on these low-volume days to make their money. The buy:sell wasn't excessively weak, so I figure it's “normal” after yesterday's strength. As suggested in my short sales comments, MMs were likely long and taking profit.
Of note, I think, is that the VWAP has risen two consecutive days, along with the high, and caused the 25-day average for the VWAP to cross above the 100-day average (25-day $0.2916 vs. The 100-day $0.2910) along with the intra-day low, high and VWAP (the latter two accomplished this yesterday when that average was $0.2911).
On my experimental inflection point calculations, we know have both the 5 and day periods above zero at 311.58 and 146.96. Here's an update to what I presented for the first time yesterday.
The rest of the inflection point calculations and the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” stuff omitted here.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/UrvN9H
"Smaller-scale storage technologies like flywheels and batteries fill the niche opened by FERC order 755. Because a flywheel storage device operates by continuously spinning the shaft of an electric generator, it can compensate for renewable shortfalls almost instantaneously. A flywheel system manufactured by Beacon Power has been deployed in California to demonstrate the fast-ramping capabilities of flywheel storage devices.
Like a flywheel, a battery can rapidly produce electricity to compensate for shortfalls in renewable energy. A battery operates through chemical reactions, so it can adjust its power output in milliseconds to seconds, compared with minutes to hours for electric generators. Furthermore, a battery only needs a small amount of storage capacity to effectively back up renewables. For example, a purpose-built battery recently unveiled by Xtreme Power holds just enough energy to discharge for fifteen minutes. What does this mean? Smaller, less-expensive battery systems can fill a niche on our present electric grid."
Dec and year
2,633 and 23,461 (planned sales 45K a bit over half.)
Leaf
1,489 and 9,819 (Planned sales 20K a bit under half.)
The Leaf factory that was to open in Dec 2012 May open this month with first deliveries, to dealers, due in late Feb. Is expected at the NAIAS (North American International Auto show) in Detroit. this month 14-27.
I-MEV
77 total 588
Honda Fit EV
19 total 93
RAV 4 EV
52 total 194
PHEVs
Prius
1,361 total 12,750
Fords numbers won't be out until tomorrow.
I got the above from Insideevs.
I also got the following quotes from the same page.
http://bit.ly/TjXhje
<Tesla Model S: Tesla does not give out exact monthly sales. However, consistent SEC filings, factory reports and tweets lets us be fairly accurate.
By most estimates, Tesla had sold around 700-800 Model S sedans going into December, and Tesla reconfirmed as late as mid-November that it would still deliver at least 2,700-3,225 by year’s end.
However, by the start of December, it seemed fairly obviously that Tesla would not be able to achieve sales of 2,000-odd units for the month. To improve results, Tesla then sent out emails early in the month to almost all reservation holders expecting delivery of their Model S in January (and some February) to “move up” their paperwork to log sales into December, regardless if the car did not actually get delivered in the month.
Even still, the highest VIN we seen allocated by Tesla by the cutoff was around 3,100, and all the VINS are not built and delivered sequentially. We estimate Tesla delivered (or at least quasi-delivered) around 1,500 cars in December, bringing the yearly total to about 2,300. We will know for sure when the company reports Q4 results in a couple weeks.>
And one about Fisker
<Fisker Karma: Like Tesla, Fisker does not report monthly sales. Fisker also is not keen to report bad news until the last possible moment…probably because they haven’t built a thing since July.
This will probably Fisker’s last month on the sales round-up chart here at InsideEVs as results are near meaningless.
Henrik Fisker last month said Fisker has sold almost 2,000 Karmas in total, and playing the “highest VIN we can find game” netted us around 2,700, which leaves about 700 still available to be sold…that is until you consider that Fisker lost 338 of those Karmas to Superstorm Sandy. making the available pool of Karmas left around 350 units, 140 of which are still in US inventory.>
Bad news about the RAV4
<Toyota RAV4 EV: After suffering its second month of sales decreases in November, Toyota slashed the MSRP on the RAV4 EV by as much as $7,500 in hopes to both move metal and book much needed ZEV (zero emission vehicle) credits before year’s end.
However, the program was not that big of a success as Toyota ended up still only selling 52 RAV4 EVs, as compared to 32 last month.>
A few other tidbits.
Mitsubishi does not plan to build a second gen i-MiEV they do not plan to shut it down, but look for improvements in hybrids and PHEVs.
Smart for 2 EV is being redone with more power and longer battery life. (90mpc)
The US built Leaf should have a little more power and range. Also a stripped down version that is cheaper. (I'm not sure about equivalent vehicle prices.)
Pushing sales into 2012 from 2013 may benefit buyers who can claim a credit in 2012 instead of 2013 (maybe?) but it won't help Tesla's revenue one iota because Tesla can't book the sale until it delivers the car.
the focus EV
in Dec and for the year.
167 total 685
C-max PHEV
971 total 2,374
It appears Ford PHEV are something people want. EVs not so much.
http://bit.ly/WgTUWk
"Almost impossibly, Ford sold almost every C-Max Energi they could build last month, as the plug-in sold 971 units in December (after selling 1,259 in November), as Ford was distracted preparing to start selling the Fusion Energi in January.
In fact, inventories are so tight, that the C-Max Energi started December with zero inventory on hand in the country’s largest market-California (actually they had 1 unit…but I digress), and finished out the year with less than two dozen on lats.
Nationally, C-Max Energi inventory stood a little over 150 units at the end of 2012, which (based on a 60 day moving average) translated to 7.5 days of supply. It seems customers are more than anxious to purchase the 5 seat, 21 mile extended range plug in, which starts at $29,995* ($28,495* in California).
As for the Focus Electric, sales were still not that great, but 167 moved off dealer lots in December, a much better result than earlier in the year, when Ford was fortunate to sell 40 or 50......
....Another thing to consider: In 2012, General Motors ended the year with 2,614 dealers selling Chevrolet Volts. By this past November, Ford had only managed to get 200 dealers certified to sell its plug-ins, and closed out the year at about 500, with another 400 coming online over the next few weeks."
I forgot to mention some dealers have staged a ReVolt.
http://bit.ly/TDvklL
They are being told to buy $5,100 in equipment to service the Volt. Some have refused according to the company it is only a few dealers.
$4,735 is for a machine to drain the battery pack so some work can be done at the dealership level which previously required sending the entire pack to be worked on.
Presumably this is happening with enough frequency to require the change.
The Smart for two is getting a redo stronger motor and greater range about 90mpc. Not sure when it is coming out. They expect "High Demand"
I don't have Dec sales yet but Nov. was 3. So I don;t think I'll bother.
(From Insideevs)
http://bit.ly/TjXhje
<We estimate Tesla delivered (or at least quasi-delivered) around 1,500 cars in December, bringing the yearly total to about 2,300. We will know for sure when the company reports Q4 results in a couple weeks.>
Hybrid cars Dashboard for Dec.
http://bit.ly/VOufpN
900 for the month. and 2,400 for the year
VS Insideevs
1,500 for the month and 2,300 for the year
900 to 1,500 for Dec. is a serious discrepancy.
Yet they ended up in pretty much the same place for the year.
Not that I can blame them for any confusion they have.
Both are 10% or more below Tesla's mid Nov. guidance of 2,700-3,225 by year’s end.
http://bit.ly/VFX4VA
One would think someone in his position would have more smarts than that. Rocket scientist indeed.
the use of twitter and the timeframe referred to obviously indicates that.
Factory reporting at shift, daily and weekly levels are far more timely and far less onerous than monthly reporting.
a company that does friday BBQs, ramping up a new mine and celebrates its first week of making bank with an extra special BBQ.
Part of the message IS the medium of the message.
A dynamic model-based estimate of the potential value of a vanadium redox flow battery for energy storage and frequency regulation.
http://bit.ly/VGA5sr
For some reason the paper is not coming up. Apparently, flow batteries can be used for frequency regulation also; however, I understand they are generally not specifically targeted for frequency regulation.
http://bit.ly/W95Yc3
Over time, a proliferation of grid connected batteries will probably drive the price of frequency regulation down because everybody who owns such a battery will seek to maximize his revenue. It will take many years for FR capacity to exceed FR demand, but if systems like Viridity's management become commonplace along with lots of batteries, the outcome is inevitable.
That has been my ultimate feeling. However, my hope would be that PbC might me heavily favored in terms of price and performance. If you have the ability to participate, why wouldn't you. And at some point, as you stated, supply would eventually outstrip demand.
"Dammit Vani and Joe, you guys sold so many PowerCubes that you singlehandedly destroyed the value of FR."
Two websites that attempt to keep real time data on solar installations and pricing.
http://1.usa.gov/WpjCJ5
http://1.usa.gov/Xp3y00
It's the quality, intelligence and intensity of the commenters, the Axionistas, that make this unique forum work. The APCs have evolved into a magnet of self-correcting knowledge.
I'll take literary license and compare what's going on here to an evolving saga, repleat with protagonists, antagonists, opportunities, risk, disagreement, friendships, logic, humor and hope.
It's been well over 100 APCs since I turned the keys over to the Axion Power Hosts. Every time I see a new APC link to the next, I always "Like" the Axion Power Host who created the link. It's my small way of appreciation for their efforts for well over a year of hosting, of which I view as extraordinary.
There are so many questions left unanswered, so much more yet to learn, so many surprises yet to occur, so much more digging left to do, that I believe the APCs will continue evolving and unfolding way past double the current tally of comments.
Going six months forward, I'm very much looking forward to the next Shareholders Conference, to share some more facetime with even more Axionistas than I did last year.
Thanks again, but it's all of you who deserve genuflections of praise and applause.
Here is:
Axion Power Residential Energy Storage Hub Certified To UL, CSA Safety Standards
Paves Way for Commercialization of "HUB" Installations with Secure Home Power, Storage and Grid Connection Capabilities
http://yhoo.it/VzKWrm
Good & Good day-Carlos
Atta Boys to all of Axion management and staff.
They get a "could have been worse Boys" from me.
The PR was convenient in crowing about how they didn't commit to anything "back in September," but their talk at the conference call, was not circumspect in my opinion.
There's no way to measure what damage to the stock ... which may at this very moment be in some price measurement period for an offering ... was done by failure to meet the expectations they set in the conference call.
I specifically asked about this and pointed out the ZBB situation, but TG could have hedged a lot more than he did. Would love to know just informed he was about what ZBB went through. Maybe he was far too busy running the biz to notice, but you gotta think he would know about it be very careful in his statements. Even though he put the blame for any miss on the testing lab in his answer, he didn't go out of his way to demonstrate knowledge of how often UL certs get delayed.
My impression from being an "interested observer" in the ZBB saga is that these delays are common and predictable, but I'm certainly not an expert in the process or "politics."
As Cramer pounds all the time ... UPOD ...
Under Promise, Over Deliver.
I understand your frustration, but I gotta say that I wasn't at all surprised when they didn't get UL certification in December. People/companies promise things to others all the time that are going to get done in December and then they aren't. With Thanksgiving and Christmas bookending the month, nothing gets done on time because people are out on vacation and such. I'm sure the UL certification company promised Axion that all the i's would be dotted and all the t's would be crossed in December, but experience has shown me that it rarely happens. I'm just happy it got done by the first week in January and now we can move forward and see if there really is a market for the HUB.
In ZBB's case, most of the announcements had already come and were waiting on UL to install.
Not sure what to expect here ...
http://on.mktw.net/10Y...
Site: http://bit.ly/nG6x1f
Resulting link: http://bit.ly/ZZPkEt
To a first-time visitor who might know nothing about Axion, the website screams "defect" directly in his ear.
I worked as a software engineer for 20 years, 10 in web environments.
http://bit.ly/WiPVJe
1) one of them has a caption including
PBCA with the registered trademark symbol.
What's with the A????
2) a second one says something about tomorrow's demanding energy needs, but this does weird stuff where there should be the apostrophe ... throwing in an A and some type of Funky "E"
Really shouldn't be that tricky!
Glad for the improvements, but let's finish the job.
Also, when you click on one of those pictures, it should do something interesting like take you directly to a further description of the caption.
I also think that the pictures of the super expensive homes, while they perhaps make sense to all of us that know about the Residential Hub, might seem a little odd to someone just getting started with the company.
From an old (and still) "keyboarder" or CLI (Command Line Interface) if your prefer, "GUI" happened. I resisted for a long time as I'm not fast at learning the menu structures and moving mice, but over time was able to blend (what I hope is) the best and most efficient (read "fastest" for me) together. I guess that was out of necessity though.
I don't "sweat the small stuff", like characters not appearing correctly, usually, and can add fonts if needed, although I've never had the desire yet.
HardToLove
Speaking of which, someone suggested it might be an All or None.
I've also heard some speculation that All or None conditions changes things w.r.t the market maker responsibilities to those trades.
Does anyone know the details of what changes, if any, there are, including whether you can or can't see them on Level II?
Now we find out.
All I've been told by ETrade over the years is that the OTC desks have great latitude in what they do and that the (ETRade OTC desks apparently) OTC desks put the AON orders "in their pocket" as far as aggressively pursuing filling them. It's more work for those folks and I guess they chase the "easy money" first.
Any rules related to them were never discussed, which I *think* they would have mentioned since I was complaining to them about failure to fill AON orders that *should* have filled, based on T & S data.
That's all I *believe* I know.
HardToLove
3 different MMs ahead though ...
TEJS .3043 CDEL .3044 ATDF .305
Most of the 83.4K volume went off at .30
Current top 3 bids all right at .30
Kent
At 09:53:39 the buy:sell was 849.08:1 on 85K shares w/VWAP $0.3005.
If pps maintains or improves and volume comes in large, the MMs will be shorting to beat the band to try and stay in the game, regarding their positions on VWAP basis.
W/o volume, short sales may not be so large.
HardToLove
Those are a few ifs, probably's and maybes in there but it looks like it fits a decent pattern, and one that would fit into Manatuck Hill's ending position. Since their shares were registered in street name in 2010 and out of the stock certificates they wouldn't be showing up in HTL's short sells. Here is a link to the morningstar page.
http://bit.ly/ryMdxI
When I asked JP about his view on whether Manny Hill's shares would show on the FINRA short reports, IIRC he said yes, because an attorney opinion would still be needed, etc. But when I tt a rep from Continental Stock Transfer & Trust, they said the restrictive legend can be removed w/o a sale. E.g., pursuant to Rule 144, if an acceptable opinion, stk pwr, etc. is processed. Then those shares are just like any other registered shares.
I have also been making a mental note of the shares sold thru ATDF over the second half of 2012 or so. While I don't have Time & Sales by MM, based on Level II's bid/ask and time & sales, I think a good case can be made that ATDF has averaged 50k-100k shares sold/day for at least the last 100 trading days, excluding normal retail, such as from TD Ameritrade. And that could be light. There also seems to be little if any correlation between ATDF's consistent big selling and the FINRA short report #'s. I think they are shares being sold by the 2/3/2012 placement investors.
So, ballpark:
26.85mil retail shares from the 2/3/2012 placement
minus assumed 20% normal flips (mostly soon after the placement)
= 21.5mil left
minus either 5mil or 10mil shares (see above)
= either 16.5mil or 11.5mil shares left
This week's ATDF selling (including today) says they are still not out of inventory and the desire to sell, but it's hard to imagine they would sell down to zero shares, either. As I've written before, if a strategic investment happens instead, they run the risk of being under-invested in AXPW. So as time goes on without a placement, they may eventually run out of selling.
Last thing---I like how their selling, although major, has been smooth. If they had tried to crush the stock, seems to me they risk TG boxing them out of this next round.
From the patience of the large UBSS and showing showing their hand I believe they are aware they are the last of major sellers. I believe it is all retail jumping in front of them on the askat this point.
Mr. I, Very funny and fitting.
I will admit I've never seen anything like it but then again I haven't spent a life time watching. Only recently have I spent more time doing so and it seems so apparent that there is at least one managing entity working the share price. Seems fitting when you also get a taste for what is going on in troll land. Oh to be a witness to what's really going on.
All and all Axion and some of their targets like NSC haven't exactly given that one or two solid pushes to break the back of the controlling party or parties. If you really understand the industries that are being targeted and follow closely real progress is being made. But for a headline sniffing investment community with short attention spans it's really muted so there's no help there. In the end it will be OK IF Axion delivers the goods. I, for the live of me, can't see how this is not going to happen at some point. My only concern is how big it will be in light of capital needs at this level. Not worried about good returns but we all would like great.
So why does it matter, anyway? Good question (thanks to self, lol). Maybe it doesn't. At least not to everyone. But here's one hypothetical case where it might: if I'm one of the 2/2012 investors, still believe Axion can be a home run, and because my superior info (e.g., TG only told us about the possible 2nd tranche on 11/15/2012; the investors have known the whole year) has given me a heads up that Tranche 2 maybe coming, I sell a bit, so now I have only 1/2 of what I started with, I've got both a bigger appetite and wallet than I had 6 months ago. I'm about ready to invest again. PLEASE don't go the strategic route, or else I'll have to buy in the open mkt. And because I may want a bigger than 10% discount for doing a private placement (the 12/2009 deal was registered quickly, but that still took 4 months), I'll be less motivated to push for that illiquidity discount. Especially if we have good news between now and deal time. Heck, maybe another group will even come in and bump us to the side.
If I understand your example correctly, the MMs lose money: sell at, say, .305 then buy at .31 = (.005). Remember, shorts make money when the closing purchase is below the short sale price.
I am in the camp that says MMs are generally unwilling to take material positions, for long, in penny stocks. They're in the biz for the spread arbitrage and for the fees. Risk your principal and you're ROE plummets, even if you're right (this last part is often counter-intuitive). At least that's how a large part of the rest of the financial industry works.
First, I think the primary thing to remember is we (investors and traders) try to "buy low and sell high" while MMs try to "sell high and buy low". I don't think they would ever have reason to "buy high" unless they somehow got badly out of position and saw possible exit in an acceptable time-frame as unlikely.
The predominate MM attempts should be to post an ask that will get taken when they have a sell order in hand at or below their ask price or they believe that they can cover at a lower price later (if going short w/o a sell order backing it). Scenario # 1 would be the preferred action as it is risk-free. Scenario # 2 would be good to when the increased visibility into the market and the ability to move markets suggests low-risk plays are possible. Well-capitalized organizations could easily pursue both strategies.
The most common scenario s/b a sell order comes in at, say, $0.30, to the market-maker. The MM has the discretion of presenting it on the NBBO facility or not. If the MM believes he can (short) sell at, say $0.31, he could do that and then just take the shares backing the sell order (i.e. "buy" them) and clear them through the normal mechanical clearing process, netting out his short position.
This is normally a T+3 process. But with computers everywhere now and the DTCC adding new facilities over the last couple of years, maybe T+3 is less reliable than in the past?
The MM could decide that he can't improve the $0.30 price much and just go for the fees the exchanges pay. The order can be put on NBBO facility, I guess, and it's again a short sale. Same clearing process follows.
With the volume and volatility present and the MMs ability to post the opening and closing bids and asks, they have the ability to move the market in a desired direction. This opens several opportunities. One of these is to make "covering buys" of their shorted shares. If they can cover the shorted shares at a price lower than that they sold at, and possibly lower than price asked on the original incoming sell order, they achieve a near-risk-free position as cost basis is lowered by one of the two sets of covering shares netting their shorts out.
This leaves them long (T+3 days or sooner) with a cost, after fees received from the exchanges and the difference in the sell price and buy(s) price, that is likely lower than the current market price, which they (attempted to) move in their own favor.
I say "attempted" because there is competition from other MMs that may have no position, a similar position or an opposite position, along with differing mixes of buy/sell orders in hand. Further, a surge in order activity from non-MM participants may overwhelm their ability to keep a preferred position, risk-wise, and force them to either bail or start more aggressive shorting behavior to keep VWAP near the market levels so they can cover when price finally reverses.
They can benefit on short-term moves in either direction, shorting into a descending market and constantly covering at progressively lower prices (if desired) and shorting into a short-term rising market and covering when price falls back. Only in a constantly rising market are they disadvantaged. This is when they need to be acutely aware of their risk restraints. In the worst situation they are constantly shorting into an ever-higher market and praying for a re-trace soon. More than "praying", they will try to move the market in their favor. This likely requires an abatement in both buying pressure and volume (easier to move a low-volume market down, scare the longs into dumping their shares cheaply).
Now, what leads me to think that MMs are getting "friskier" are the possibilities arising from the fact that almost every one is owned by an entity that also has a brokerage facility and the changes seen in the daily shorts sales and my "Dly Sht % of 'sells'".
Some orders may get done intra-broker. The MM can see both sides of the trade and play both of them. The brokerage may also be making the positions, through the MMs, leaving the accounting for the positions predominately on the brokers' balance sheets, not on the MMs, longer-term. This seems most likely from larger players that are well capitalized and looking at a totality of activities rather than just an individual MM-arm profitability. For trades accomplished in-house (intra-broker), the MM need not be involved at all. NASDAQ provides multiple "windows" intra-day for these, and inter-broker and "dark pool" trades as well, to by-pass MMs and avoid fees. However, if done through the MM there are additional profits to be had from the exchanges for execution on the exchanges.
Realization of these possibilities *seemed*, to me, to be supported by the change in shorting activity concomitant with the exit of the "big uglies". My "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values changes during the periods when the "big uglies" were (apparently) starting to appear, then were present for many months and, finally, gone *may* also support this thought. But I would need to add "Dly Sht % of 'buys'" over time to see if that does support it.
All MHO with incomplete information,
HardToLove
Thanks.
http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
First good news of the year for Axion.
Now waiting on:
EPower
NSC
BMW
Power Cube
And APU
Have a nice year-Carlos
Could Rosewater be first disseminating the news of certification to its distributors and partners, getting *potential* orders from them firmed up and then planning a big PR push about the market acceptance?
ISTM that this might be a good ploy to advance their product in the marketplace.
Just wondering ...
HardToLove
I am definitely in the belief that Rosewater is going to come out with some excitement regarding this news as it is the "blast of the gun" that they were supposedly waiting for, the race is now on to sell units and generate revenues!
At last years annual meeting the numbers being bantered about informally led me to believe that initial orders could easily top 50 HUBS. Now thats only 500 batteries, but it would be a quick start.
I am in agreement with you, I also believe that Joe P has been very busy getting set up to launch when the green flag was waved. I don't believe for a minute that they have been sitting around waiting for the UL approval, I believe they have been moving forward with planning of the first customer installs so when the approval was given all of the electrical engineering and mechanical installation data for the first "many" customers was already complete and the supplies and subcontractors aligned. This is what I would have been doing and from what my opinion is of Joe P I believe he is 10 times as good!
But as iindelco stated, if we don't hear of sales soon I will be disappointed. I believe that if Joe P has good news he will share it.
We shall see!
So as they say in horse racing, "And they're off". There are a bunch of horses in the race but I'm not betting against Rosewater to win, place or show. They have proven genes that carry a bunch of weight.
There are national and international, industry and also customer specific standards that are more tailored for devices like the PowerCube. I'm also sure that the government has their own specs as well for the military.
Did I remember correctly? Make sense?
HardToLove
HardToLove
I believe you are correct in your first post and it makes sense to me.
The second post, I think it's way to soon to get anything meaningful out of Queens College.
I am hoping that your hunch is correct regarding the Canada project! That would be a great PR release!
RBrun357
Don't forget about the APU market which is one of my favorites!
"Other premium products"
Other premium products would add features to produce exceptionally clean undistorted power when used with renewables, such as solar or wind, the utility grid, or from generators.
Suggests that the HUB is the first phase of other equally important developments.
Today is a great day to AXION POWER PbC.-Carlos.
Maybe. I read that more to mean that the HUB is a stand alone unit for power modulation, but that you could use it for integration of solar, wind, ect if you added those systems to it.
You are reading better than I do.
Thanks.
The UL cert covers the full-blown system, but you don't have to buy it so configured if you don't need or want certain functionalities.
If no trades go off at that level until the whole quantity goes out we can surmise it was a real AoN ask.
We do have the usual suspects on the ask side (and bid too) jostling: ATDF, TEJS. CDEL hasn't moved yet on the bid side, $0.3025 x "standard" 2.5K. But they have joined the ask side at $0.31 x 10K.
HardToLove
EDIT "standard" 2.5K.
As I recall, Rosewater says they will take great pains with the first (or more?) installs for total customer satisfaction. Good for them. Good for us it's very early in the quarter.
How long?
Assuming the have a few orders in hand, how fast do they ramp?
AXPW, at least for a while, has to manufacture something totally different. They have to deal with new suppliers ... in particular ... Indy Power Systems ... and we are dependent on them doing what they said they could.
TG says they have talked to "Fab" houses to farm this out ... but how soon? Is one of these a potential strategic investor?
Can't wait till the next conference call! It's going to seem like an eternity till it's here :-(
"We were excited to see the first shipments of Bakken Crude delivered to east coast refinaries in 2012, and we expect this subsector to grow significantly in 2013. In addition, the continued rebound in the metals and automotive markets during 2012 played an important role for us and for our service area.”"
http://bit.ly/UNhpus
But it is early in the day and we shouldn't take this intra-day reading too seriously yet. The visuals do suggest all this is for real though.
HardToLove
EBC Renewables Committee Meeting
Axion featured on slide 15/16
http://bit.ly/10Z3yo8
One error? On slide 23, talking about Li-ion we see "less likely than lead acid to overheat".
Is this true? On traditional LAB or AGM? I don't recall these needing sophisticated monitoring systems to control heat - just good old air-flow design IIRC. ISTR the Li-ion generally needs various cooling beyond that - liquid circulation etc?
PbC just needs air flow design?
HardToLove
HardToLove
Lesson: Sometimes less IS more...
A presentation from an "Energy Storage Technology" confab, and they say "less" when they should be saying "more."
I hope these guys' products don't slow down when you step on the gas (metaphorically speaking).
http://bit.ly/138eVc3
Post it on the 192 blog,always a wagon late...
So, it's for real.
HardToLove.
Though you have to wonder for how long?
Special Situations, on the other hand, strikes me as a bit predatory.
http://bit.ly/X6qeOJ
Just what I want under my grandchildren's car seats.
At least these guys were smart enough not to put it in with their infrastructure unlike the install in Hawaii.
"The fire did not affect the nearby substation, as APS installed the equipment for the energy storage system away from the existing infrastructure."
2012-11-14 - Electrovaya Launches Residential Lithium Ion Energy Storage System
http://bit.ly/Z4ou7X
Here's a Feb 2011 reference to their utility system offerings:
http://aol.it/UOEr4c
Not sure if Agora was pushing them at one point, but I did stumble on this:
http://bit.ly/Z4otkn
Who wants to post on the fire????
Apparently it also "resembles" a Roman candle.
LoL! Nice EOD chuckle. Thanks!
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/UurBGg
I wonder if they are now outsourcing their recruitment?
$3mil is a ton for such small overall numbers, so perhaps headcount actually shrunk. Haven't looked at the financials in awhile.
Axion has been eagerly awaiting the UL certification and must have advanced plans including staffing to construct the first HUB's.
Regarding no Employment tab, maybe that has been removed due to the webpage redesign?
Started out in a job shop. Axion doesn't want to do this. There are plenty of panel shops that will bury them on labor costs. Get the design right, oversee the first few builds and be done with it. All Axion needs out of this is a channel to sell batteries and a track record of successful product in the field.
It has been discussed before that Axion does not want to be a HUB builder and I completely agree.
Rosewood are so concerned to have a good premier of the HUB that they are sending their personnel to oversee the first installations.
I would be very concerned if Axion did not exhibit the same level of oversight.
"Much has been said about EVs and plug-ins allowing drivers to avoid the gas pump, but plugging in twice a day can be a bigger hassle than buying gas once a week, especially when you have to deal with interlopers stealing electricity from the reserved WardsAuto charging space. Now we have to devise a locking mechanism.
If auto makers can’t even keep fans like me engaged, winning over new converts is going to be a very tough road indeed."
http://bit.ly/WiQMJT
But if we evaluated a gasoline car with a tank that held only two gallons, took 3 to 20 hours to refill, and had an unreliable fuel gauge, it would be savaged."
Reality bites.
Manufacturing advances bring carbon fiber closer to mass production
http://aol.it/WiUH9G
http://bit.ly/VJAL0i
Lots of carbon fiber in these bad boys:
http://bit.ly/SagaWW
also have A/C, nice stereo, very streetable
http://bit.ly/ru1GhG
OT: perhaps confidence will increase, now that we have UL cert and the ppps held up nicely. Even started nibbling at the UBS block. And on a macro basis, once again, the sky did not fall. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is even at an all-time high. Things could be setting up very nicely for our lil company.
Only after the sky has fallen will they raise it and get on with the real work (however slowly.)
http://abcn.ws/XsqDPh
The write up on the HUB from Electronic House magazine:
http://bit.ly/TBQXD5
About Electronic House magazine:
Electronic House
Type: Consumer
Frequency: 8 times per year
Audience: Average household income: $131,025; Average home value $453,750
Circulation: 77,515 (ABC audit)
Congrats to Rosewater as it seems they are putting in a real effort.
Even 96kWh per day is low for a 5,000 ft2 air-conditioned house with pool in a hot climate.
As I've posted before, it is my impression that there was a backlog of sales awaiting the UL. Now, that might be one or two units, but that would get the ball rolling. To make a long story short, I agree with you iindelco.
Maybe this will have a silver lining because maybe, just maybe, this will be the first of a series of "minor" announcements in the month of January about Axion's various projects which could create a sense of momentum that cumulatively would move the stock dramatically.
People are on vacation. Focus goes slack.
News during the last 2 weeks of December is pretty unlikely, IMO, meaning I am not disappointed but rather glad the HUB is on track.
http://bit.ly/UtXJtu
Forum site: http://bit.ly/Xsrxez
Agenda: http://bit.ly/UtXI8P
Watch ABB, Siemens, and Alstom duke it out!
Includes:
Energy Surety Microgrids and the SPIDERS Program
http://bit.ly/XsrxeG
I know ZBB had a project involved with SPIDERS (military)
Also a reference to the Galvin Electricity Initiative
http://bit.ly/UtXI8V
These guys were involved at IIT in a project that ZBB supplied for.
http://bit.ly/XsrxeM
"The share price for this transaction was pre-determined by calculating a 10% discount to market using the Company's volume weighted average price for the trailing 40 day period (VWAP)"
So why did the price fall after the 2012 offering? I think it's because it really was going to fall anyway. The price had stalled upon reaching nearly 60 cents and probably had overshot its bounds. The timing for news was terrible, but that's about it.
With major sellers done, we might be fearful for nothing.
While it still remains a concern, naturally, the sensitiivity has been reduced dramatically. Li has its place, and we think we have ours.
A year later and whatcha' know, the lithium hype cycle for plugins...is now unplugged.
The generation that justifiably drove Pb out of paint and gasoline after learning of the hazards to our children and environment went a bit overboard in trying to remove it from batteries.
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40765, Vol 333439, AvTrSz: 5557
Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3097, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3046
# Buys, Shares: 47 236682, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3047
# Sells, Shares: 13 96757, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3046
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.45:1 (71.0% “buys”), DlyShts 126782 (%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 131.03%
Well, as I suggested earlier, the daily short sales came back strong, although I didn't expect this much increase to be shown with today's volume, which is just “average” when you look at the averages, in thousands, of 309, 337, 311 and 361 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively. Later in the day when I saw the VWAP holding up well I did start to doubt my earlier assessment though because I knew some longs would be enticed to sell and, more importantly IMO, some market-makers would be enticed (or “forced”?) to short to increase profit potential or protect their positions from excess damage.
The short sales constitute 53.57% of today's “buys”. I've been mulling for some time if this might be even more useful than the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” now. This is because, as opposed to the tendency to “hit the bid” when the “big uglies” were around and heavily selling, the tendency now should be for MMs to short more aggressively on price appreciation, especially if volume is there. It might also reflect my originally-posited “pull” effect by enticing longs to sell, also causing short sales in most(?) cases.
Moving to traditional TA, we now have the third consecutive day of higher highs and lows. The lows have begun to pull above and away from the short-term ascending support begun at the low of 11/13, which I have detailed before and last adjusted around a week(?) ago. This is the same line that caused me to speculate very early on that we might be entering a rising trading channel. We also continue to “push” my experimental upper Bollinger and, if recent past behavior holds, should have another three days or so of this. That's not considering any knock-on effects from today's PR about the PC's UL certification being issued and (hopefully soon?) follow-on Rosewater PR. The traditional 20-period Bollinger bands continue to converge, albeit quite slowly for now.
Something I seldom mention, the PSAR (Parabolic SAR) flipped to bullish mode today.
The close today was above the two new long-term descending resistance lines I recently added. We also, AFAICT, traded at or above the lower one. I'll detail these only in my instablog, for those with an interest, so that they can duplicate them and judge for themselves. This will spare folks without an interest.
We've solidly left the 50-day SMA, $0.2808 today, behind. Since we did have price appreciation today, we won't get the second day of falling 50-day SMA I suggested yesterday. Instead, it has started to rise (+$0.0002 today over yesterday) and unless price falls tomorrow, the 50-day SMA will continue to slowly rise for at least a couple days more.
Last, the potential C & H (Cup & Handle) pattern formation I mentioned yesterday continues to shape up nicely. When (and if) we hit a high around $0.3179-$0.3199, we will have the right-side “rim” in place and it could be either a “jumping off point” or the start of the handle formation, which can form either in a concave or convex form (that is, “sag” lower initially or “bubble” up initially, either one after a possible very short sideways movement).
The MACD, which DRich brought to our attention a short while ago, continues to strengthen – now reading 0.004 and 0.002 for the signal and average lines respectively.
In summary, the long-term down trend seems certainly at risk of being broken.
On my experimental stuff we see the low, the high and the VWAP all above all averages except the 200-day SMA. This trending up has been three consecutive days now. The VWAP 25-day SMA has crossed above the 100-day, as I mentioned it would yesterday. The 10-day should cross both of those tomorrow, leaving only the 50-day and 200-day “out of order”.
I want to also mention that the calculated long-term linear trend lines continue to lose correlation. This is a result of the price movement being of sufficient magnitude that the daily new calculations can't “keep up”. They have weakened further from their highs of 80%-82% to 77%-78% now.
Buy:sell, and the averages, are solidly back where they belong now. Only average trade size remains in a weak area.
Regarding my experimental inflection point calculations I'll only say that they continue to support movement upward, as first suggested again just before Christmas. As I mentioned later, that first rise was weak and short-lived and I expected the new set-up, which came around right near the EOY, to be stronger and more sustainable. In support of that, the 100-day period closed above zero at 51.51, placing it in positive territory with the 5 and 10-day readings. The 50 and 200-day calculations are also on the rise. Only the 25-day is still fighting the trend. This is setting up to suggest a very strong upward movement, IMO.
“Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, new trend lines discussion and inflection points detailed discussions omitted from the concentrator.
HardToLove
MHO,
HardToLove
"Lots in store for 2013 at the Juanita Shops including...an upgrade to experimental NS 999..."
http://on.fb.me/WdPNdH
No mention of when in 2013, but at least it's consistent with what the recent NS Sustainability Report said. Maybe now we can change the Wet Paint sign to Damp. Or Wet-ish.
concurrent - Happening at the same time as something else.
So that's two wet surfaces we have to watch dry.
"Leading the charge with NS 999
Five years ago, Norfolk Southern began development of a battery-powered locomotive, part of a larger company initiative to explore cleaner, alternative-powered engines to save on fuel costs, lower emissions, and reduce reliance on foreign oil sources.
Two years into the effort, in fall 2009, we unveiled NS 999, a prototype electric four-axle switcher locomotive. The eco-friendly unit, built on a 1969 model GP38 body, was powered by a bank of lead-acid batteries and equipped with novel regenerative braking technology designed to recharge the batteries during operation. Since then, we have worked with industry partners Axion Power International and TVM Control Systems and with scientists at Penn State University to address technical challenges posed by the locomotive’s battery management system.
In 2013, we plan to reintroduce an upgraded NS 999 with new advanced lead-carbon batteries and an overhauled battery management system that addresses technical issues we encountered with the prototype. We believe this rebuilt “next generation” model will provide a foundation for the development of economically viable battery-powered locomotives to help reduce emissions and reliance on fossil fuels.
The overhauled NS 999 will be powered by fewer batteries: 864 of the higher-capacity lead-carbon batteries vs. 1,080 batteries on the prototype. We concurrently are developing a next-generation battery-powered six-axle road locomotive based on NS 999 design improvements.
“The whole difficulty has been how to manage these long battery strings while the batteries charge and discharge with very high current, and we absolutely are plowing new ground with this,” said Gerhard Thelen, vice president of operations planning and support. “We think we can make this work, giving us fuel savings as well as pollution-free point-source emissions.”"
Pg 12
http://bit.ly/US4nM5
I guess we shouldn't have been looking for it in 2012. Sometimes I have trouble with reading comprehension.
I thought this might be the case given the delay in the NS999 and NSC's work on the Leader app. I think the OTR app. is really a parallel effort to the 999 slug now because I think it's been held up by the 999. So I think they are now parallel programs and not serial. Not normally the case in risk reduction but since they have done all the Penn State ground work it may be the correct path at this point given the opportunities offered for fuel/emissions reduction.
Makes me think the recent DOE grant also palyed a big part in the slow going we observed. And after that is when we got the increase in the battery order size too? Me thinks it all adds up.
HardToLove
"“The work that Penn State and Norfolk Southern Railroad are doing together to design and develop a hybrid road locomotive..."
http://1.usa.gov/QyvU31
Note the emphasis on OTR locos.
http://bit.ly/NtHEOW
I can't recall exactly the date, but when TG first announced that NSC was doing biz with Axion, the biz then were PbCs. Therefore the expectations of time frames probably changed, too, when PbCs were substituted with 30HTs.
I am assuming in the case of BMW, that they are in the process of modifying the electrical systems of the hundreds of test vehicles now, and will take the batteries only after everything else is ready.
Would it be reasonable to look at delivery as the last step before testing actually begins?
Maybe you can understand mine? ;))
http://bit.ly/UwD1cx
http://bit.ly/rXeP68
Automotive batteries are typically Group 24 or Group 27, while trucking more commonly uses a Group 29, 30 or 31 case. The 30HT is simply a tall Group 30 case. The PbC technology doesn't care if it's built into a Group 24, 27 or 30 case. They're all the same battery and the only thing that changes is the electrode dimensions.
We know the original NS 999 used 1,080 AGM batteries but I've never been able to find a clear specification of the BCI Group size. Since Enersys makes the Odyssey for heavy applications, it would not surprise me to learn that NS used a Group 30 case size. The 30HT is a little bit taller, but as I recall the primary racking issue had to do with air circulation rather than battery size.
In the original NS 999, they used a tray system that restricted air flow around the batteries. As a result, the batteries tended to develop "hot spots" at the bottom. The new racking is open to maximize air circulation and minimize hot spots, which can be very important if you're trying to push a couple hundred amps of charging current into the battery.
In June 2010 Axion announced that it had been hired "to develop a battery management system that would allow rail locomotives to operate on battery power and recharge their batteries through regenerative braking."
http://bit.ly/UwDprx
While many missed the significance of the announcement, the fact is you don't hire a battery manufacturer to build a BMS that will be used to control batteries manufactured by somebody else.
If you think back to the November CC, Tom said the NS batteries had been built "in duff" and they were awaiting shipping instructions. To complete a duff battery, you have to add the electrolyte, close the final seals and run the battery through the formation process. It typically takes a couple days.
http://bit.ly/WvEcaw
http://bit.ly/uYBkC8
Who belongs to "knowhow' in this case ?
I mean ,if another railway company wants to follow NSC path in the future,can Axion use his knowledge or is it restricted in some ways to NSC/Axion cooperation.
Just a guess, but Axion doesn't want to be in the loco rebuild market. Probably leave all the info with NSC to do the refurbs and maybe NSC will license other refurb outfits in other locations This lets Axion do what they do best, make electrodes.
The basic BMS is owned by Axion but the system designed for NS under contract probably belongs to NS.
All the other rights will be determined by the contracts between the parties which have not yet been made public. Without those contracts, any speculation would be irresponsible. Tom is a big fan of defined time periods and performance criteria, so it wouldn't surprise me to hear that there were some conditions. I know he mentioned that Axion was working with others in the railroad space but again there have been no follow up details.
Got your point,and do understand that Axion's job is to built their proprietary electrode.
But doing the BMS would put Axion in the first row of choice(among battery makers),If another railway would like to follow Nsc path,because they simply did it already,they would have the batteries and know how.
That's more my point
In comparison a Group 30 HT case size – 13.5 x 6.77 x 11.95
Previously, when racking systems were discussed, there was the notion that a racking system could very easily be constructed. Having in a previous life sold filing systems and large-sized movable shelving, it's a piece of cake if one is building them in an open space with standard sizes. But when one gets into the territory of holding over 800, 90lb. plus batteries, inside a piece of equipment whose entire life is spent bumping into things, I'll quibble that the racking system has far more specialized considerations than just ventilation. It's unknown territory for a yard switcher.
Since this is all new ground, all custom made, and quite possibly fabricated in house, the shelving has to be conceived in such a way as to be easily replicated and installed, and then to have the durability to last 20 or 40 years.
No, I'm not forgetting delays due to 3rd party testing, but last year, when we were all hoping that when NSC ordered $400,000 worth of PbCs (30HTs), that the order would have been shipped long before now. My gut feeling is that racking issues, from figuring proper ventilation to the gauge of the metal used, played a significant roll in the delay...now into 2013.
I see your point and also the point JP is making above. Probably too early for this kind of speculation. But it sure is fun. :-)
BTW, If I recall correctly in one of my Penn State readings I do remember emphasis on the rack design for various reasons. I'm sure air flow was one of them. An obvious one that seemed to be overlooked in the first NS999 trial using the AGM LAB's .
There are larger sizes, such as 8D, but there has been no discussion I know of using this size battery. Eventually, if there is a market, Axion may make large 2 volt batteries, such as http://bit.ly/13as18O, that weigh over 200 kg each. I do not know of any inherent reason why PbC could not be made in this size.
Speaking of unofficial channels, any update on ePower that you are ready, willing and able to share? Thanks, and fully understand the sensitivity, so no answer at all is of course fine!
Axion, Norfolk Southern Team-up on Novel Battery Locomotives
"In an interview with Hart Energy Publishing, Axion’s Granville said the all-electric locomotive not only would have applications in local switch-yard service, but also on line-haul moves, the latter as part of a consist of several locomotives at least partly employing diesel power.
One such line-haul route under consideration is New Jersey to Memphis, he said. This route has enough changes in elevation to allow regenerative braking to recharge the Axion locomotive batteries, he explained."
http://bit.ly/112Z0xd
NS Opens First Crescent Corridor Terminal: Memphis Regional Intermodal Facility at Rossville, TN Opens July 1, 2012
http://bit.ly/WgpvY6
I found it in the July 2009 part of this page: http://bit.ly/1064Iz5 and includes this text:
"Keith Burkey spots NS 999, a BP-4 class fully battery powered switcher. The frame belongs to NS 2911, and notice only a small portion of the long hood was used. The cab is new as well. This unit has no generator to charge the batteries except regenerative braking from Brookville Manufacturing. It is designed to be plugged in when not in use.
Photo by Keith Burkey"
For the record, it is not free content.
Personally, i would want an instrumented history of the types of acceleration loads experienced by a yard slug, to see if more then just a stiff metal rack is needed.
It probably makes a difference as to what axis the acceleration forces are applied to the PbC. A bit of non-rigid mounting to reduce peak force might be a good thing. You don't have to drop a battery on concrete to break it in an invisible way.
Justification exists in the fact that *many* lessons learned on the yard slug apply to the OTR and should provide a "cost savings" (wink, wink) because what was spent in the past on the yard slug allows it to be a test mule for *certain* functions that will apply to the OTR. By golly! We can use this on the yard slug too and it's free (gov't paid for it)! :-))
That's what I've been thinking.
HardToLove
And I can assure you that the many programs I managed from 10's of thousands to millions of dollars, well the financial department watched me like a hawk. Got my hands slapped a few times for mixing up my assignments of what I called capital, tooling and expense. Well, until I learned the right words when I sat down with the experts. And strange glaring looks don't bother me. 8-P
BTW, You're not trying to tech me new words are you? I've already proven I could spend a fair deal of time in the area.
Unlike the slug, it won't just stop moving, even with a worse case power train failure. At least if it is part of a consist, it can't ;-)
Within next 3 months: Before 15 Feb 2013
-Sales of HUB
-Ship NS batteries for NS999 for which already have purchase order.
- If TG says PC RFP's are near maturity I think we get a sale or two. When I tried to get some type of comment on PC sales a couple of CC's ago, TG completely stonewalled me. I think him saying near maturity means within next few months and that he is very positive about Axion's chances..
--Sale of battery sets for 5-10 trucks to ePower.
3-6 months (Feb 2013 -May 2013)
-Sale of more batteries to trucking for further testing APU (APU added 5 Jan).
-Another couple of PC sales.
-Purchase order for string testing batteries for hybrid locomotive.
-Small sales of test batteries to OEM's both auto and trucks for testing.
-more HUB sales
6 months to 1 year (May 2013 - Nov 2013)
- purchase order for sale of batteries for NS999 clones - iindelco and HTL are salivating.
- hybrid locomotive purchase order for batteries
- fleet testing batteries to OEM's and auto
- several more PC sales
- continued HUB sales
- PbC sales to APU and other trucking refitters (5 Jan refitters = ePower) and OEM's for testing.
-other locomotive manufacturer testing
1-2 years (Nov 2013 - Nov 2014)
-OEM auto purchase order for small production model -
-more NS 999's
-locomotive stop/start sales
-purchase order for more hybrid locomotives for testing
-more PC and HUB sales
-trucking, APU sales.
2-3 years (Nov 2014 - Nov 2015)
-all above plus larger orders for trucking, auto and rail.
"Financial partner" might also be a wild card plus...especially with more impetus, i.e. HUB/UL
We like the PbC because it seems pragmatic in many applications. This means nothing to government and their ilk.
Marine & Heavy Machinery
That is my opinion-Carlos
You may be right about this...from Exide's Q1 2013 transcript:
"Military contracts in Industrial Energy Europe and Rest of World are up almost 300% over the prior year first quarter. These profitable multiyear contracts are primarily submarine reserve power batteries."
They had given a revenue number for all submarine contracts in one of their previous transcripts, but I can't remember what it was. I think $10-20 million, but that's really a guess.
In most sailing boat and every motoryacht ,you do have batteries.How many of them do you have in USA marinas ?
It's a bit off topic and old report:
http://bit.ly/VGmTo8
and also about electric boats
http://bit.ly/Zqt859
I'm thinking subs are more of an energy application than instantaneous power, and with space at a premium, I don't expect many PbCs there.
This is not the voice of knowledge I'm just guessing.
in leisure boating industry ,these are the sizes mostly used .It should not be too difficult for PcB to gain shares in this market once Axion's products will be more widespread known/sold.
submarine battery is another world in term of size/safety:
http://bit.ly/UsuBBk
I forgot. Sometime, probably pre Y2K end of civilization event. I read a retail ad for a sub battery, weighed a bit under a ton. (1,600 lbs, I think.) Without recharging, it was supposed to be able to power the average house for 6 months. Lifespan 15- 20 years. IIRC
Really???
It would be upside down. ;)
Researchers seek longer battery life for electric locomotive
"We wanted to reverse the sulfation to rejuvenate the battery and bring it back to life,"
http://bit.ly/SbmpKn
Could a captive tornado power an entire city?
http://bit.ly/112u6Fd
You'll have to follow the links to get the details.
If the power calculations are correct (they are over my abilities to verify), the challenge will be sufficiently inexpensive construction of the cement structure and base-level turbines to be economic. My SWAG is that capital cost will make it uneconomic. I look forward to real data and testing, and hope my SWAG is wrong.
Somewhere on the net I've seen a plan for the same sort of thing using water.
Here's a hydroelectric set up using vortexes (it says) but under water.
http://bit.ly/104o87m
They did a test in Aug 2010 but I haven't heard anything about this since.
Here's a different wind power claim.(I've been watching for a couple of years. BTW My physics was never up to this but G Doty assures me it won't work.)
200% Greater Power Output 80% Less Land Use <3¢ per kWh (less than natural gas)
50% Shorter Towers 50% Less Maintenance <2 mph Wind Speeds
Essentially it is a pipe up in the air that brings the air down to the ground where the turbine is. Neat idea if it works but you have friction losses, back pressure from the turbine etc.
Ducted Wind Turbines: An Energy Game Changer?
http://bit.ly/VLizU5
http://sheerwind.com
http://bit.ly/WzUxv5
and my favorite part is in the credits at the end a shout out to the Best Buy at
4611 24th Ave Ft Gratiot Center
Ft Gratiot, MI 48059
100-Megawatt Power Plant via Variations in Ocean Temperature
http://bit.ly/Vr0MSP
and what powers the engines? Batteries needed if you're using part of the generated power? Solar for "bootstrap?"
and "a" number????
Interesting though .... especially for all those Microgrids getting developed for island nations.