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    8 Jan 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Not again.
    8 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • ack
    8 Jan 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Number 4. Has to be good for something.
    8 Jan 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Ms. Congeniality as I recall.
    8 Jan 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Followers now outpacing Concentrators! 196 vs 195.


    Quick lets have lots of new and exciting comments!


    Any updates on the Navy program? How about ePower?


    Dreamliner fire was a Lithium battery in the APU according to CNBC, 4.49pmEST. Additional NTSB inspectors have been dispatched to um er ah...inspect!
    8 Jan 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • AIB
    Too late 197
    8 Jan 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • I look forward to share price outpacing concentrators
    8 Jan 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • Feds: EVs will be forced to make "noise" under 18 MPH:



    Here's my suggestion of which noise (hilarious prank):

    8 Jan 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • I'll second that: Hilarious!
    8 Jan 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • +1 on the scare!


    8 Jan 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Love the prank. But sincerely happy it wasn't played on me.
    8 Jan 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • The guy almost twisted his ankle ... not hilarious to me.


    Pranks of this genre are funny around 98.6% of the time ... but it's the worse case when people do the totally unexpected that get you in trouble and calling a lawyer. Many people never consider "what's the worse that could happen" till they learn the hard way.


    People who aren't don't really get that some people have highly heightened sensitivity to "shocks" like this ... call it flight or fight on steroids.
    9 Jan 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • 198 now! watch out DR
    8 Jan 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • I had a couple real late comments on my instablog article published
    5/12/12. I had two surprises. First was that anyone could still find , read , and respond to the article.


    Second was to find out if I had gotten it right after 7 long months.
    The article is here:


    I could update it with the HUB, NS taking delivery, new class 8 trucks on the way, etc.


    Just curious if anyone thinks the future is worse, better, or the same since last July.


    For the record I took my X-mas bonus and bought Axion at $.285.


    This makes me overweight and happy. In my personal life I am a little overweight and unhappy. Just didn't need anyone to be confused about my well being.


    And in case my recent bride of the last 9 years is reading, I mean unhappy as " my total stock portfolio", not really personal life stuff.
    8 Jan 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Worlds most unlucky car maker.
    The Horribly Ironic Reason Why 338 Fisker Karmas Were Destroyed
    Matt Hardigree



    "Buried in the summons from Fisker, however, is a little detail that shows just how screwed poor Fisker was:"


    < Although more than 900 other Fisker vehicles from the same ocean shipments previously had been transshipped to inland conveyances through FAPS, the 338 vehicles remaining in port were delayed to address various service requirements. All or virtually all of the vehicles were subject to a safety recall requiring the replacement of cooling fans before they could be distributed lawfully to retail dealerships. In addition, some of the vehicles required replacement of lithium ion batteries and software updates. These requirements resulted in delays of varying lengths in transshipping the vehicles to dealers via domestic conveyances.>


    "Did you catch that? The vehicles were held back to cover a recall related to them bursting into flames and, while waiting to be fixed, were inundated with salt water causing a large number of them to be destroyed by a fire. Their attempt to prevent the cars from catching on fire led to them catching on fire.
    This, on top of mixed reviews of the Fiskers, work stoppages because of their battery supplier going bankrupt, and various fire issues."


    The 338 Karmas had been at the facility for time periods ranging from between 80 and 362 days. Waiting to be fixed.
    A link to the court documents.


    A quick look with my uneducated eye looks like The insurance company has several potential holes to limit and possibly completely evade payment. Win or lose; I believe Fisker will not be in business by the time the lawsuit is over.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • GE To Drop Pledge Of 25,000 Plug-In Purchases By 2015


    "The problem stems from the people getting the vehicles simply do not all want small, one function, sedans, they want some utility – trucks, vans, SUVs."


    < “It’s the demand of our customers,” Ms. Frodl said. “There are so many technologies out there and our customers need a variety of technologies in their fleet today, not just one. We’re not picking winners and losers.”>


    "So now, about 10,000 purchases into the program, GE has started to add other alternative fuel vehicles into their fleet mix of 30,000 corporate vehicles, like natural gas-powered pickups and propane-fueled vehicles." ....


    "The new plan still involves 25,000 plug-ins at some point, but now GE hopes to move 10,000 units to its fleet customers (of about 65,000) and the balance for its own corporate needs."
    9 Jan 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Market current:


    Tuesday, January 8, 8:09 PM "The use of non-conventional drilling techniques in places like North Dakota and Texas has created an explosion in U.S. oil production, to the point where it's expected to surpass Saudi Arabia in crude production by 2020. The government now predicts the U.S. industry could pump 14% more oil this year alone, rising to 7.3M bpd in 2013. That's 300K more than its December forecast, and 900K bpd more than what was produced in 2012."


    The ICE car will probably be around for a few more least in the USA.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • Give it a few more years and America is going to be one lean, mean, pumping machine!


    Can y'all say Cha-Ching? I thought you could... ;)
    9 Jan 2013, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • I fully expect ICE to have a long future, but hope and pray that the path we've started down towards increased efficiency in all energy use won't get derailed if domestic resources *seem* too plentiful.
    9 Jan 2013, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • John, I can see (and share) your concern if price at the pump were to fall back dramatically to say some sustained price in the 1 to 2 dollar range, but I think if that were to happen the various taxing powers that be would become very aroused and interested... such a thing would excite various lawmaker erogenous zones like nothing in long time. Our gov't has had something of an insatiable appetite for money and for the next couple of decades is going to be desperately looking for it everywhere... Ergo I can easily see a federally-mandated floor of $3.00 a gallon sometime in our future...
    9 Jan 2013, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • The cool thing about increased domestic production is the impact of the fiscal multiplier for domestic economic activity.


    When we buy a barrel of imported oil for $100, the cash leaves the economy and can only flow back in as foreign investment or export purchases.


    When we buy a barrel of domestic oil for $100, it becomes revenue to the producer who uses it to pay US salaries and operating costs which are then recycled through the economy several times. I haven't written about the fiscal multiplier impacts because they're the province of economists and out of my depth, but I do know the differences are substantial.


    The bottom line is that $100 that stays home instead of going to import spending increases GDP by a factor of three or four, if not more. When you figure the governments will get several bites at the apple as the money circulates through the domestic economy, the problems will be nowhere near as serious as many imagine.


    Wouldn't it be fun if the most hated industry in the country was responsible for both energy independence and real progress toward a balanced budget.


    The dream scenario is spectacular – turn $250 billion of spending on imported oil into a trillion dollars or more of incremental GDP.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • Just what we need is some government focus in the area.


    Obama Environmental Picks Seen Focusing On Oil Boom

    9 Jan 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Not a political forum, so I'll be brief (for me.) Our energy discoveries are a great gift and exceedingly well timed for the economic reasons (and others including return of some manufacturing creating even more desperately needs jobs) JP cited. I think Obama and many Dems get that. Both left and right have their extremes that are easy targets. Also gifts are our water and air (see China for the other extreme). Strict regulations and inspections on well casings are something I want my government to enforce both on and off shore.


    I have been burned severely (so to speak) investing in Gasfrac who does LPG fracturing instead of water based. Like AXPW ... too small to have an impact yet, though the water issues including what comes back up out of the well could be significantly reduced (in many but not all Basins) if they achieved widespread use. Unlike AXPW, they spent too much on equipment too soon :-( They may yet recover ... we'll see. Valley of Death don't ya know.


    The oil and gas industry is a great North American success story on both a business and technological level and deserves much credit. But it is also American history legacy that all large industries need some checks and balances. The hard part is figuring out the right level.
    9 Jan 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • I looked at Gasfrac thinking they had a great technology but stayed away from investing in them.
    9 Jan 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Wtb: I've been eyeballing Gasfrac for some time - fortunately at a distance so far. I'm in my patient mode to see if they get their structure and markets properly addressed. If they do I think they have a very good future. Their reusabilty of the propellant will bvenefit their customers, and Gasfrac, in terms of cost and logistics nightmares as they try to expand their reach and get their resources properly distributed.


    9 Jan 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • I too have looked at Gasfrac. Starting about a year ago
    Their recent plan of moving to liquified NG instead of liquid propane seems like an excellent Idea. That would cut out any recovery of injected material. (Propane) hopefully this would make them cost effective.
    So I still have hope for them.
    Unlike Poseidon who's business was making tanks that could be disassembled ans reassembled. (No moat) $15 in Jan 2012 to $1,50 today.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • I like John's thoughts and I agree with them from an investment side. Through a different investment in ND which turned out to be basically a scam and I lost 40% of my investment I started following a North Dakota centric bank, called BNC Corp (BNCC). I bought in the first week in September and recently sold out for a double in a few months as its closer to my FV calc of $12 and I'd rather own more AXPW.


    However I really, really doubt we will hit those projections based on what I see in decline curves on about 30 wells that I track across a few different basins. Most of the math that makes up Milhouse's post (and I know its not his) is based on a simple curve of growth without declines.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Speaking of Gasfrac, early last year:


    Green Field & GasFrac Announcement - Wednesday, January 18, 2012


    GASFRAC Energy Services Inc. ("GASFRAC") (TSX:GFS) has signed a Technical Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with Green Field Energy Services ("Green Field"), under which the two companies will work jointly toward a technical solution that would enable their respective proprietary oil and gas production enhancement technologies to be combined.



    (but note the embedded link for details doesn't work ???)


    Haven't heard anything since ... maybe collaboration died?


    Green Field appears to be an LLC:


    Green Field Energy Services, Inc. FY 2011 Annual Report - 5/24/2012 -;Sort=


    But now, now sure how to read this:


    Green Field Energy Services and GE to Deploy Natural Gas Powered Equipment to the Oil & Gas Industry Under New Supplier Agreement



    Partnering with the big boys always exciting ... remember XIDE/AXPW? News ... good or bad? Time will tell. Interesting at the least.


    But if you're going up against HAL and SLB, probably nice to have GE on your side (and yes I expect GE sells stuff to HAL and SLB too)


    Gasfrac had a big uphill battle in the US, and apparently not good enough management (and I'm not saying it was easy) to get the job done.


    See also: Fracking Companies Find Greener Solutions



    "How’s this for irony? Fracking champions are looking toward solar power to try and cut down on pollution."
    9 Jan 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Had a conversation with my "best bud" in High School who still lives in the Permian Basin oil producing region of West Texas. The area is indeed booming with anything that can be called housing occupied, run down hotel rooms going for $100+/night, newspaper classified ads for truck drivers with starting wage of $100k yr., etc.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • "I looked at Gasfrac thinking they had a great technology but stayed away from investing in them. "


    Smart move. Their management left something to be desired.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • One of my last oil and gas clients was Boots & Coots International Well Control, the guys who put out about 70% of the burning wells in Kuwait. Knowing what I do about wild well control, Gasfrac always struck me as a pretty risky way to complete a well.
    9 Jan 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, MrHolty. I'd love to hear you share more about decline curves on the wells you track--now and in the future.
    9 Jan 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • First used Model-S I've seen for sale. (Except those with sub 100 mi.


    2012 Tesla Model S Signature Performance 1,160 mi $111,971
    Silver, RWD, Sedan, 1 speed automatic, 0L, Stock# CFS00283.
    Dealer: Smythe European, Inc. San Jose, CA


    There's a 2008 Roadster with only 40 more mi. on it.


    This seems awfully quick, to dump a car, you waited years to get and put a $40k deposit on....


    I wonder what the dealer paid for it?
    9 Jan 2013, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • John, PRECISELY. Drill baby drill, baby!!! ;)
    9 Jan 2013, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • 1/8/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 28300, Vol 464487, AvTrSz: 5880
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3480, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3369
    # Buys, Shares: 49 288695, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3382
    # Sells, Shares: 29 165792, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3344
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3423
    Buy:Sell 1.74:1 (62.2% “buys”), DlyShts 127965 (27.55%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 77.18%


    Traded above, and closed above the 200-day SMA of $0.3295 at EOD. Range continues to depart from rising support of potential rising trading channel and, so far, if being restrained by the rising resistance of that channel, which slopes up about $0.01/week.


    All the oscillators I watch have a definite bullish slope either developing or already there. In the “there” category: RSI 77 (highest since 1/26/12's 77.77 and a BIG positive divergence from prior instances of trading in this range); accumulation held well at 0.548 considering yesterday's reduced (but still improved from recent averages) volume that we'd expect after a decent price move and big volume the prior day; MFI ~86.7; Williams %R holding flattish at ~-18.4, a decent reading; stochastic remains in overbought with readings of 80+ on the %D and 81+ on the signal line (%K); ADX up to 18 from 1/3's 11 and the DI- continues to weaken at 8 while the DI+ moves to 32; momentum up to 1.16+.


    The MACD DRich brought to our attention recently continues it's improvement – now +0.004 and +0.009 for the average and signal lines respectively and accelerating upwards.


    Normally I would expect a few days of sideways here, but with such readings I'm unsure if that will happen. We have three of the SMAs, 10, 20 and 50, “in order” and rising and the PSAR, which I normally don't mention (lack of trust), rising.


    A note on my $0.33, $0.35 and $0.37 price points seems in order. These are not points traditional TAs would identify as critical points. I use them because they are demonstrated strong points of “consolidation” or “churn” highs and lows and I know that they often present the same behavior when again encountered. With this in mind, normally it appears that the current $0.33-0.34x (which will become $0.35 IMO) should offer the same behavior as in the past, with the difference being that the current oscillator and SMA readings and rising trading channel (if I've correctly identified it) suggest a break up instead of down. ATM I'm leaning towards little or no sideways movement before continuing to move up. Once we pass $0.37 we should be free to run to ~0.42 and then ~$0.45-$0.47+ with no other observable resistance points on a one-year chart.


    Having said that, since I believe we have more traders in our market now, I wouldn't be surprised to see some halting progression as we move towards those points as folks trading with percentage-gain targets take their profits. It is this that I believe will cause confirmation of the rising trading channel, eventually, as the legs up and down caused by traders will come to the fore. The channel spread is around $0.06 so you can see that at current price levels that's a nice percentage spread, which will make it hard for traders to resist playing the swings.


    CAVEAT: A break above the the rising resistance will likely leave them wailing in the dust about missed upside. I'll be wailing too as I'll have to try and ID the new rising channel or a big pop in progress – hard to know which.


    On my experimental charts, everything's coming up roses except that the average trade size remains slightly into the lower end of what I think is “retail”. I don't know – maybe this is the “new normal” with such ATDF, TEJS, NITE and others playing in our sandbox now. Daily shorts are behaving as expected, buy:sell in normal range and my new experimental inflection point calculations continue to suggest more upside is in store near-term.


    Detailed discussions of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    9 Jan 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • OT: "America's Other Energy Revolution And Why It Matters" from Forbes.


    Micro-grids, traditional gas turbines vs. micro-turbines and more.



    9 Jan 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Found this, thought it better to let more experienced comment on.


    Relatively High Enterprise Value to Sales Ratio Detected in Shares of Aura Systems in the Electrical Components & Equipment Industry (AUSI, ROP, ST, PPO, AXPW)

    9 Jan 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • EV to sales is a ratio that's easy to use when comparing peer group companies and can be used to highlight cases of overvaluation or undervaluation. I use a variant of Market Cap to sales for my tracking lists. As a quick example, JCI trades at 0.51x sales, ENS trades at 0.80x sales and XIDE trades at 0.10x sales.


    Axion trades at 3.90x sales, but that's only because it's a transition stage company that hasn't built a stable sales history yet.
    9 Jan 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John.


    I have been getting error messages lately when I simply try to respond to a post with a thank you. Has anyone else had the same problem?
    9 Jan 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Jveal: Not for that reason. I've seen a couple error messages this A.M. just clicking likes. Not unusual. I think it has to do with load, or maybe a "race condition" on SA's system.


    Usually a refresh clears it up and sometimes just trying again.


    9 Jan 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Hi jveal,


    SA will not let you re-post the same message more than once (its something to avoid people spamming the same message). Thus, if you've posted a message that says "thank you" before, it will not let you do it again. You'll have to add different adjectives and affectations each time to keep the post-fresh and get past SA's security.


    Thank you very much.
    Thank you very much indeed.
    Thank you kindly.
    Thank you so much
    Thank you oh so very much indeed.
    Thanks a ton!
    Thanks a million.
    Many thanks.
    Thanks for your insights.
    Thanks for your help.
    Thanks for just being you.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Danke Schoen.
    Word up.
    Gracias amigo.
    Awesome bro.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Many thanks to each of you who responded to my problem.
    9 Jan 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • I am still having order routing problems.


    My broker, Fidelity, is routing OTC orders to Citigroup Global Services, and I am having to call them on the phone to get my orders routed where I want them.


    Can anyone suggest a broker that gives users online control over where their OTC orders are routed?




    (wtb: My orders are going to Citigroup whether they are AON or no conditions.)
    9 Jan 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Billa: I don't know of any myself. One option that your trading platform *may* have is a "Routing" drop down like Power ETrade Pro has. It doesn't let us pick MM, but does allow ARCA, AUTO (default), NSDQ and NYSE.


    Maybe your platform has something similar? If they do, check with their support to see what the options shown do for you.


    As an alternative, lots of folks here can likely mention their brokers that give good execution without you having to do the routing yourself. ETrade is pretty good, but not as good as they used to be on the OTC front.


    9 Jan 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • HTL:


    I guess I'll just have to call them when their software dumps me in a corner and keep on them to dump Citigroup Global Services.


    Fortunately, I do not trade too often. But when I do, naturally I want my orders to execute when they are properly at the top of the pile.


    Thanks for your advice.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • As a child I used to swim in the lower susquhanna in the 1950's-60s, and I remember well the floating ca ca that came down from williamsport or wilkebarre,,? One of those towns had no sewage treatment back then.
    I learned to keep my mouth shut. Envioromentalists went after the problem,, and I am glad they did. These days we need to worry about other things floating down. I am extremely happy that we are developing our own gas and oil fields, and believe the money spent here will have a 10x min effect. But, we also need to do it safely and not blindly,,,there is a happy middle ground.
    9 Jan 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • I'm beginning to think that if we're going to sit around watching paint dry we should use a different solvent. Or maybe suggest a single malt scotch for the finish coat. ;)


    Maybe a trip to the zoo to watch the high energy animals.

    9 Jan 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • After spending a day with the movers in house packing my life, that photo is a great picture of my current mindset.
    9 Jan 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Are you moving now? It's official? Congrats and good luck. I am sure it is lots of fun organizing to move across an ocean.
    9 Jan 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John, Ugh.


    Anyway. Best of luck with your travels. Don't pack the cats too tightly.


    What's the cost of a seatainer from Europe?


    I was in Mexico when a guy I worked with chose to move down. He was single and had little in the way of stuff he wanted to move. He approached the HR department and stated, "Cut me a check for half the moving cost for my stuff and I'll donate it and be happy.". Answer, I can't do that Hal. So they moved his .50 USD worth of stuff for 1.00 USD. Corporations! :(
    9 Jan 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • It's more than official at this point. We're on a plane before the market opens on Friday.


    The move is far less complex than it could have been because we sold a houseful of antiques for a little under a dime on the dollar, but that's what happens when markets go south. We'll still fill the better part of a 20' container, but it beats the heck out of 40 or more. I hope our value equation is a little better than Iindelco's friend.
    9 Jan 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Be safe John! Make sure of the batteries on board! ;-))


    9 Jan 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • John,


    Just wanted to let you know that it is suppose to be in the 80 degree range here in Florida for the coming week. When do you arrive?
    9 Jan 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • We'll be on the ground Friday night although it will probably take me a couple days to buy a new computer and get back in the saddle. Between the age of my current hardware and the two month shipment time, now is as good a time as any to get a cool new Mac. Since everything gets loaded out tomorrow I'll be spotty for a couple days.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • you're moving to Florida? what county?
    9 Jan 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • I think Clearwater is in Pinellas County.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • I understand, I hope your journey will be a good one! New toys (Mac) always makes life more fun!
    9 Jan 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Clearwater is definitely in Pinellas county. Pinellas is the most densely populated county in the state and in the top 10 in the nation. Enjoy the traffic :)



    Beautiful beaches though ...
    9 Jan 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • I've got my heart set on the new 27" iMac with a Fusion Drive. It will be tough on my ego downgrading from eight cores to four, but I really don't need enough power to animate The Lord of the Rings which is what I have right now.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan---sounds like the seeds of an annual winter/spring Axionista meet-up. I might be there in March, for an annual beach volleyball trip with a group of guys from here in Chicago.


    Oops, I can almost see John ripping up his tickets now...8^)
    9 Jan 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Funny, I was in Chicago in October for a guys' trip.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • And you didn't look up wtb or me? {;^>


    Signing out of SA now, 'cause it interferes with my Level II somehow. So I usually only post in the evenings anymore. Lucky you guys!
    9 Jan 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • My mother lived in St. Pete's Beach in Pinellas County when she was with us.


    I hate to say this, because John is moving to Clearwater and I wish him the very best in his new digs, but aside from being unbearably hot in the summer, the Gulf of Mexico struck me as a bathtub full of warm piss and I would never swim in it.


    The east coast of Florida, around Palm Beach, for example, is gorgeous by comparison. Almost constant trade winds make it feel comfortable even though it is ungodly hot, and the Atlantic Ocean is an actual ocean.


    I know I should have kept my mouth shut about it, and I am sure you are not going to Florida to swim in the Gulf of Mexico.


    Best of luck on your move, John.


    I am sure you will enjoy the world-class boating, eating, and birding that the east coast of Florida offers.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • JP: Have you looked over the new 12core macs?

    9 Jan 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • billa, I lived in Sarasota with my Grandmother when I took off a year of college to find myself (unsuccessfully). I loved Siesta Key Beach, beautiful white sands, no driving on the beach (maybe that is just Daytona) and not bad ocean temp year round. Great stuff on all three sides, I only lived there a year though so I am sure the natives of each region have their "thing".
    9 Jan 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • After growing up in Phoenix and spending the first half of my career in Houston getting back to the Gulf Coast doesn't bother me a bit. More importantly, that's where my wife's business partner is so nothing else makes sense.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    You can't move! What is Sockpuppet going to do if he/she can't call you an Swiss offshore pumper anymore?? ;-)


    Safe travels.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • I meant to say: "the world-class boating, eating, and birding that the WEST coast of Florida offers," all of which is true.


    And of course being where your work is trumps everything anyway.


    I once spent 27 months developing call processing software for Cellnet in Omaha, NE. Even Omaha has its advantages, cold/hot and isolated as it is. (Great people, great steak, easy access to any product or information you need.)
    9 Jan 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • My first move for work and I was 24. Owned a bed, futon, TV, some dishes. Was moving from Boston to Sacramento. Corporate agrees to move me. Call up the nice HR lady and I ask her what they estimate my move to cost. Knew I didn't have a house to sell so it couldn't have been much. I offered to move myself if they paid me in cash at 50% gross up. They saved and didn't use the outsourcing firm to manage my move. Donated a bunch to goodwill, sold stuff to neighbors in my apartment building filled up a few suitcases with clothes and drove myself stopping and seeing family. My new boss allowed me to expense the miles driven as well over 3 months and the cash provided the downpayment for the house I bought.
    9 Jan 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • mrh, What part of Sac? I grew up in S.Sac near florin and 21st.


    9 Jan 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mrholty, Exactly. But Valeo said NO. If I remember correctly the added charge was about 6k USD. Plus an employee scratching his head.


    Not to mention his furnishings arrived months late.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • KentG- It was actually Elk Grove. My job was part of a sales staff to sell to Raley's. Was only there two years and moved back to corporate HQ. Enjoyed it and never understood the disdain by others for Cowtown.


    IIndelco - I understand. At the time, I worked for a company that makes a SPiced hAM.
    9 Jan 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • May your move go smoothly (and with fair weather).
    9 Jan 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • John, you could skip buying a Mac and simply treat yourself to a Tesla Model S -- a far better touchscreen than anything Apple sells. And when you're not surfing the net, you can be cruising the interstate!
    11 Jan 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think the touch screen has much utility for those who use computers for real work like document and spreadsheet preparation, but I'm sure it has immense potential to distract drivers who should be paying attention to things like their driving.
    12 Jan 2013, 04:34 AM Reply Like
  • Looking at the way trading is going today:
    - ATDF came with ask $334 x ~58.6K (unusually large for them) @ 09:31:23,
    - I think ATDF (and others?) and/or their customers are long from the recent volume,
    - ATDF et al is feeding shares slowly into the market to avoid down pressure,
    - we'll see lower % and volume daily short sales today.


    This may be a good test as to if I've actually started to get anything useful out of my obsession with MM activities.


    ATDF is now offering $0.3395 x 40K. Others jumping ahead.


    9 Jan 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe! Today's daily short sales were 8,800, 4.90%. Based on recent behavior, I guess it'll stay low for a couple days, with a trend up starting in a day or two.


    Today's VWAP was $0.3361 and the low was $0.3304.


    VWAPs over the last three days, when we had higher shorts, were $0.3046, $0.3228 and $0.3369 and the lows for those days were $0.3000, $0.3013 and $0.3300.


    Short sales were (in thousands) 126.78, 246.80 (the day of the oddity when avg. buy was lower than avg. sell price - $0.3227 and $0.3234 respectively) and 127.97.


    I'm guessing some large percentage of those prior day shorts were covered at lower prices and the MM(s) are feeding them to the market while holding price up.


    As their long position(s) are dissipated I suspect they'll let price weaken a bit and then the next cycle will start with another price rise accompanied by increased short sales.


    I believe my EOD commentary will support this as the buy:sell ratio was absolutely outrageous at 9.72:1 (90.7% "buys") and until the last 1 & 1/2 hours it was near 13:1. Moreover, my experimental calculations started to show some weakness in the 5-day calculations, dropping ~27% from the prior day reading (it's volume-sensitive).


    9 Jan 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, FYI, I've posted several times about ATDF's selling 25k-50k blocks (I estimate 50k-100k shares/day, on average), almost every day, for at least the last 100 trading days. The only sellers with that much inventory, if you assume the BUs have been diminimous, and given the weak correlation to the FINRA short reports, are the 2/3/2012 placement investors. I guesstimate that they are down to roughly 10mil-15mil shares: 20% flipping brought them from 27mil to 21mil; this constant selling since at least late summer (perhaps when they were re-approached about Tranche 2) brings them down to 10-15.


    I'm not saying every ATDF block is the 2/2012 investors, but the extreme regularity of the big selling strongly suggests a big group. IMO
    9 Jan 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • MrI: Don't know how I missed all that. I usually note single entries on level II for larger sizes. 25K wouldn't catch my eye so often but I would've "thunk" I would've noted 50K+ offers from them.


    Oh well,
    9 Jan 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, maybe because the offers usually only last for less than an hour. Small enough and close enough to the best offer that they usually get taken out fairly quickly. Compare that strategy to the occasional 100k shares or the recent 300k, which are big enough and far enough away from the best prices to linger a lot longer.


    Would be nice to have Time & Sales by MM. I must admit I have not been interested enough in it to even see if it's available, though, lol. Trading is still just a curiosity to me, not my strategy/approach, which is a long-term fundamental one.
    9 Jan 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H2L The 61067 x .334 was my order I tried to sell yesterday and so I put it back in early today to make sure it sold. All gone as of 11:18:02. I figure now we will move higher since I'm done selling. Selling a large block was not easy w/o pushing price down.


    I am holding the rest for huge gains. Come on 2015!!!!! 8-)


    9 Jan 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Glad you were able to adjust your position!


    9 Jan 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Kent, thank you for the info above. Feel free to disregard this question, but may I ask why you trimmed your position (generally speaking not specifics). Do you feel the thesis or risk levels in Axion have altered?


    I ask this since I have heard of others doing the same and here I'm thinking risk levels have been reduced with the good news of late.
    9 Jan 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • baz, I do think the risk/reward with AXPW has changed but for the better. I only sold to repay a 401K loan used to buy AXPW back in June. Basically the money is still in AXPW but now in an IRA. The shares I sold were replaced with .29 shares after xmas. My share count was 167K before xmas is today is 275K total. I sold 70 shares once before @ 1.11 after my broker let me spend more than I had in my account.


    Anyone selling now will regret it later!!!


    10 Jan 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • KentG, Am doing a similar thing. Selling in our core account and then buying back in our Roth. Most likely fill our Roth this month...
    10 Jan 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • NSC rocking:


    For Norfolk Southern, a new intermodal initiative is paying off in shorter trains and efficiency gains



    Not remarkable these days ... every company focuses on "logistics" ... but still kinda cool, encouraging, and hopefully saves them a few $$ to invest "elsewhere" :-)
    9 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • WTB: On that topic Goldman put NS as one of their 13 "sure thing" picks for 2013.



    Whatever a "sure thing" means from GS.
    9 Jan 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • "Whatever a "sure thing" means from GS."


    It means they have already bought. A "sure thing".
    9 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • I noticed today that Goldman Sachs downgraded Western Union to Sell. Quite aggressive if you will betting against such a cash cow with a strong dividend.
    9 Jan 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: So, naturally, GS downgrades to neutral today - I guess they want some shares on the cheap, huh?


    The snake continues doing "God's Work".


    Raymond James cuts to outperform from strong buy.


    10 Jan 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • We should not forget that mankind, for thousands of years, worshipped snakes...


    It seems apparent that he was probably taking about Himself...
    10 Jan 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • NSC reports Q4 earnings Jan. 22 AMC. Some prospect of CC comments relevant to PbC and Axion.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Japan battery maker shares fall after Boeing 787 fire

    9 Jan 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • 1. I think we can only conclude that Boston is either a dangerous or unlucky (possibly both) place.


    2. Perhaps GS-Yuasa needs some diversionary news like announcing a new strategic partner :-)


    "Shares in GS Yuasa, Japan's top producer of traditional lead acid auto batteries with a 35 percent chunk of the domestic market"
    9 Jan 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Hope they don't have to do a recall. Or if there is a problem for both platforms hope they are still on the ground.


    GS Yuasa Li-ion Battery Cells Selected to Power International Space Station

    9 Jan 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • FYI: Ref JAK's post in # 194 and discussion about double-counting.


    I needed to sell my tiny trading blocks today so the proceeds could "buy to close" my short covered calls early next week and lock in profits.


    I waited until the ATDF ask of $0.339 had been exhausted and the bid came up to $0.339 x 10K and I banged in my order.


    I then saw a quantity matching mine go in 4 trades in 21 seconds at my price and then a single block matching my quantity at my price again 3 seconds later.


    I don't know if I just couldn't see this in the past due to my "newness" about what to look for, if it was that this time ETrade bought the shares and then sold them or ...?


    After looking at trade confirmations of past trades, ETrade flagged the trades as "agent" meaning they passed them on. I'll check these when they come in and see if they were "agent" or "principal" - maybe that will give a clue.


    When they are "agent" it says your broker/MM didn't participate on either side of the trade - they passed them on. "Principal" says they were on one side or the other.


    Per SEC rule (highlighted by one of the articles JAK documents led to), your trade confirmations must indicate if your broker (or MM? Unsure) was a principal in the trade or not.


    This doesn't directly answer the question of double counting, but does show a path wherein only a single count may be done (intra-day if your broker is a principal and doesn't trade out of the position that day) or a double count may be done (intra-day if your broker trades it and then trades out of the position) and another *possible* single-count scenario where your broker is "agent" and the "principal" on the other side is *not* an MM or that MM doesn't trade out of the position that day (e.g. doing a "covering buy" would lead to a single count).


    So, combining all we (don't and do) know - we can't ever tell what volume really represents - we can guess with a high-degree of certainty that the count multiple is >= 1 and <= 2 on *most* days.


    9 Jan 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • ETrade's trade confirmation shows they acted as agent for both sides of the trade.


    First an important, I think, note. Daily short sales were only 8.8K, a bit smaller than my order. So my sell order caused no short sale. I think this is important because it suggests (demonstrates conclusively?) that one of the scenarios where I thought a sale might *not* cause a short sale was the broker owning the market-maker because the shares were either pre-transferred to the MM arm or having the shares in the brokerage owning the market-maker meant the shares were in the MM control already.


    The latter is what I think is the case here.


    On to the main topic ...


    If those trades I detailed were related to my sale, we have a double count. Since the bid at the time was $0.339 x 10K from ATDF and we saw, apparently, two sets of trades, I *think* ETrade got the shares to ATDF and ATDF filled a buyer's order they had in hand. I *think* if the customer was an ETrade customer we would have seen a single trade.


    We'll want to watch future trades that present an opportunity to confirm such though. Ideally:
    - a low-volume day when your order appears on an MM *present*;
    - that same MM is on the other side;
    - the market is made (your order executes);
    - the other side shows quantity reduced by the same amount;
    - only one set of transactions are seen temporally close together;
    - your transaction confirmation can show your broker was either agent or principal.


    If agent, it was likely an intra-broker trade (no short sale would occur) and if principal, your broker traded with you (might be "covering buy" if you were selling) and again no short sale would be generated.


    10 Jan 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Marathon Capital added a little over a million shares to their ZBB holdings last quarter.

    9 Jan 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stephan,
    Obviously the looming cash deficiency does not bother them. I was thinking that delivering the backlog would free up a lot of cash for ZBB. So far nothing they have done has generated cash except selling stock. Holding my shares for the future, however.
    We will see.
    10 Jan 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry if this was already posted:


    China Automotive Review


    Lead-acid battery gets second look



    “I’m oversimplifying it, but that’s the principle here: Change the particle size, change the porosity, change the microstructure, change the battery design.”


    Dhar says the result is a battery pack with a power rating of 1,900 W/kg, four times the best lead-acid battery on the market and even bettering the 1,450 W/kg of NiMH.


    “And I have not added any expensive materials (or) changed the fundamental low-cost structure of lead-acid chemistry.”


    He pegs cost at $15-$20 per kW vs. $40-$60 for NiMH and Li-ion.
    9 Jan 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • That's an interesting article, but a bit low on technical specifics. I don't think that battery will solve the sulfation problem, though. Let's wait and see. Everyone here should be good at that by now :)
    9 Jan 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Poul,


    I don't think we have seen that particular article before, but we have discussed Subash Dhar and his bipolar LAB design several times in recent months. Check APC 166 and 190.
    9 Jan 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the link Poul, this quote shows how he is describing it as a power battery "If you want to (increase the flow), you put in a larger pipe or you put in 100 capillary tube pipes – a bunch of smaller pipes. You get the same 500 gallons (flowing more quickly) by simply reducing the friction in the path that water has to go."


    I like the illustration of a bottle of water a really wide mouth (power battery) the water comes in and goes out fast, a narrow mouth the water flows more slowly.


    So he is talking about making it suck up and discharge faster. This as well as the other characteristics he describes are the same as the PbC, so we see where battery developers are trying to get.


    This is a new battery design so I assume it will take new manufacturing facilities that will take time to ramp up production *if* and when it is ever ready for production. The PbC being in an AGM format will always have a great advantage over any new technology like this since the existing AGM manufacturing facilities can easily and quickly switch to making the PbC.


    I like how this is another illustration of where the battery industry is trying to get, because the PbC is already there.
    9 Jan 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Original article (cited article was a repeat) on Wards Auto:


    Dec. 19, 2012 David E. Zoia | WardsAuto



    Found this interesting:


    "EPS has kept a low profile until now, because the startup isn’t alone in pursuing new lead-acid technology."


    I've seen several articles on them lately. Not sure if they (or their VC backers?) are pushing for publicity, or writers are searching for something different to write about now that the lithium EV "glow" is wearing off a little.
    9 Jan 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • What I find interesting about the article is the turn around time that Dhar claims will be possible. He seems to think he can go from a prototype into a design win for auto in just a couple of years. Hmmm...not exactly the time frame we've been dealing with. I think he might be a "little" optimistic.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Labtech, In an earlier article he claimed they were not focusing on automotive initially because of the time required for take up. I made a point of this when I posted the earlier rendition.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: If it was an "extraordinary rendition", we probably never got to (CIA) it! ;-))


    Sorry - slow day.


    10 Jan 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, ;))




    OK, If you're bored chew on this from Yahoo today. What are people going to do when they get vehicles w/o pilots. BTW, I spoke with my son's friends dad who retro's vehicles for the disabled. They pulled a similar stunt with wireless. All I could think of was the liability as they did it in open traffic.

    10 Jan 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: I liked those.


    EDIT: As to (WOT):
    10 Jan 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco you made my day. Maybe partly because I've been wfh alone sick all week but I was crying halfway through that.


    Thank you.


    10 Jan 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Lot'o green on's technical take on AXPW:


    ZBB looks about the same:
    9 Jan 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • PJM update (6 slides):



    Operational Review of Regulation
    Market Changes
    January 2013


    Not sure what to make of it, but hoping one of you, e.g., Stefan, will.
    9 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • wtb - give me a couple days and I will get back to you on this.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • WTB - the presentation does not appear to say that much except that the regulation requirement has changed over the last couple of months and they will need to monitor it going forward through CPS and BAAL. Unfortunately, I don't have a good grasp of exactly what all goes into CPS and BAAL.


    CPS1 & CPS2 - control performance standards


    CPS 1
    –Based on frequency and ACE
    –Maintain ACE at 0 or deviate to help system frequency
    –Calculated each minute
    •CPS 2
    –Statistical measure of ACE magnitude for 10 minute segments
    –Limit unacceptable large net unscheduled power flows
    –Keep magnitude of variation less than L10


    BAAL - Balance Authority ACE Limit
    - Maintain interconnection frequency within a predefined frequency profile under both normal and abnormal conditions.
    - PJM has replaced CPS 2 with the BAAL standard
    - Measurement is the total number of minutes the BAAL limit is exceeded with a goal of 98% or better.
    - Any violation of ACE exceeding the BAAL limit for a time greater than 30 minutes results in a Level 1 violation.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Nano Nano ...


    1. World-Record Battery Performance Achieved With Egg-Like Nanostructures
    January 8, 2013SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory





    2. Posted: Oct 26th, 2012
    New Lithium Si-Graphene Battery Material Opens Doors


    (Nanowerk News) California Lithium Battery, a finalist in DOE’s 2012 Start Up America’s Next Top Energy Innovator challenge, has announced the record-setting performance of its new “GEN3” silicon graphene composite anode material for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Independent test results in full cell LIBs indicate the new GEN3 anode material, used with advanced cathode and electrolyte materials, increases energy density by 3 times and specific anode capacity by 4 times over existing LIBs.

    9 Jan 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Cui has been doing a lot of interesting stuff with batteries, hopefully one of his discoveries will actually make it into production someday.
    10 Jan 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Another beaten down penny stock of mine had a great rally in 2013:



    They have a mid-stage ALS drug (phase 2 results end of year). The catalyst was that Biogen's drug failed, and now eyes are on CYTK. Piper upgraded the stock. So basically no company news yet the stock nearly doubles.


    It'd be nice to get some analyst attention for AXPW :)
    9 Jan 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Boeing looking to put things in perspective and also do some damage control.


    Boeing's Billion Dollar Dilemma

    9 Jan 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Cramer, though he like Aerospace as theme for the year, suggested BA might be "too hot" right now.


    But he suggested UTX ... which according to Bloomberg makes the APU that had the fire! ? Say HON too, but wait for a pullback as it's run too much.



    (embedded video starts the topic about 3:40)
    9 Jan 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Da stats. from KPMG.


    Automakers shift investment from electric back to petrol engine cars

    9 Jan 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • Some of these trends are exactly what we've been discussing.


    The EV is out, increased hybridization of the ice is in, as we expected.


    I see the trend in developed countries toward car sharing and pay-per-use cars as being the other side of a coin that includes increased public transportation and increased urban living.


    I see these all as welcome changes in improving overall fuel efficiency in transportation but also capital efficiency as each of us no longer has 30 or 40k sitting idle for 22 or 23 hours a day.


    Winning cities will be those that don't just allow that extra 30 or 40k to become windfall profits for landowners in the form of higher rents and condo prices but allow supply of urban housing to meet demand without prices rising.


    Ok, that became slightly OT.


    10 Jan 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. McHattie, well said.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like


    "Smart Grid Strategy
    Get ready! FERC spotlights 3 major challenges for utilities
    Dec 7, 2012


    1. Falling load growth. Wellinghoff cited a recent study from the Brattle Group that confirms a 30-year trend of falling growth in energy usage. Today, the average growth is roughly 1% per year, down from the 5-10% common in the middle of the last century. And no, today's anemic growth is not due just to the recession. It is an unstoppable result of our march to energy efficiency, as evidenced by LED lights, Net Zero buildings, variable speed motors, and more.
    Most utilities make money by selling electrons. If they won't be selling more electrons each year, they will have to figure out other ways to recover their fixed costs and finance operations and upgrades."


    <Not to mention the recession has put a crimp on things. Manufacturers have found cheaper places to set up shop and that electric car demand they were getting ready for is not growing as they they hoped. >


    "2. The Internet of Everything. You may prefer to call it Machine-to-Machine or you may prefer GE's term, the Industrial Internet. But under any name the trend is sweeping over the electric power industry. We are embedding sensors, monitors and meters up and down the value chain, creating an end-to-end network where every device – including those on the customer side of the meter – is communicating. As a result, utilities are being forced to bring more IT skills and personnel to the OT (operational technology) side of the house.
    3. Distributed generation. Wellinghoff told the story of vaunted venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, who recently stated he now only invests in "drop-in" power systems – that is, generation technology that can be installed on the customer side of the meter. (Examples include solar PV, co-generation and micro-turbines.) Wellinghoff also said that over the last six months, 41% of all new generation was from renewables, much of that distributed.


    In short, Wellinghoff sees the Internet of Things and distributed generation as unstoppable trends that will require major readjustments by utilities. But, as we saw in point #1 above, they will have to find new ways to finance it without relying on load growth."
    9 Jan 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • "Behind the meter" - I like that! And "drop-in ... examples ... micro-turbines".


    As to funding it, likely the regulators will have to give some relief by allowing some credit for deferred or avoided grid upgrade dollars.


    This to be applied to building the (predominately) software and hardware monitoring infra-structure development costs for a few years. After that they could be stepped down, lowering customer rates further.


    10 Jan 2013, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • I have two comments:


    First; all of that "internet automation" increases the vulnerability of the grid(s) to attack by cyber baddies. I have not seen any credible reports on a systematic solution to cyber attack of internet tied industrial equipment.


    Second; This could be a self fulfilling prophecy, as the rise in micro/mini generation reduces the need to "clean up" the aging "city to city" grid hardware.


    My feelings are ambivalent, but I lean toward the market solution of a more "cell like" power infrastructure. He who pays (locally) gets the benefit (locally). An individual "power cell" may be more vulnerable, but the overall robustness of the system will improve. Multiple local "backup" systems will also help.


    Could a backup power provider (using PbCs, of course) become a micro-utility, selling high reliability power to nearby electricity consumers? I think so. It requires software and local switches to connect the HiRel users to the microgrid. Those local (to a business complex, for example) switches are likely to become more common in a u-grid system IMO.


    Finally, and OT, there is a rising interest in mini-nuke generation. I don't see why a gas turbine with nuclear heated air (or nitrogen only) couldn't work for 5-50MW generation at a reasonable cost. It is much easier to make smaller reactors "walk away safe" then the 10-20X larger ones. A Brayton cycle gas turbine is relatively simple and very reliable, compared with a 2 phase system like steam. Think jet engine vs ICE.
    10 Jan 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Silli, I will take up the other side of the discussion. Our electric grid is in worse shape than US roads after WW2. Tiny, inadequate roads supported by local counties and states, regardless of the regional or national traffic needs. May quasi random projects were built under the WPA, with few projections of future growth, and no maintenance during the war.


    Eisenhower enacted a national gas tax and built the finest road system on the planet. We need a national electric grid, not a provincial swamp of state PUCs, local politicians, regional ISOs, NIMBYS and the lawyers, lobbyists, rented politicians, and pseudo-environmentalists. It is ridiculous we have almost no HVDV, and no mega-volt projects even in the planning stage.


    More "localness" is exactly the reason why the grid is such a mess today.


    Anyway, sumfin' to talk about...
    10 Jan 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rick: Actually, I agree with you. But given the fedGov has diverted so much of the Directed Taxes (hi-way fuel tax, for example) to other use, I don't see any way to pay for the needed system level grid upgrades. I am not sure congress could even pass an "electric grid upgrade tax" with restrictions on how to spend the resulting funds.


    I feel the "interconnected cell" structure will happen by default. It is better then having flaky power everywhere.


    I am unsure of how many large power plants have been built recently, but it can't be that many. As coal plants are decommissioned they are often replaced by several, smaller gas turbine generators. These could just as easily be dispersed as grouped in one site.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • sili, I don't either has much trust that the Feds will actually keep the funds discrete. However, the gas taxes are a mixed result today - significant amounts have been diverted to other mass transit projects, yet there is a very large appropriation from general revenue to keep the highway system somewhat maintained. The obvious solution is too stop the subsidies to automobiles and increase gas taxes. The subsidy gives incentive to drive too much - why not, somebody else is paying for it!.


    I think we will see private "micro grids" not as part of a innovative strategy, but as a defense against an increasingly unstable grid. I think we will see developments (commercial and residential) that get a premium tenant because of superior electricity (and Internet).


    Gas turbines tend to get more economic as they get bigger, and concentrated. Four 500MW turbines is a nice cluster. Clusters typically permit most effective use of combined cycle operations - two turbines feeding one large steam turbine, and other variants.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Rick -


    "Our electric grid is in worse shape than US roads after WW2. Tiny, inadequate roads supported by local counties and states, regardless of the regional or national traffic needs. May quasi random projects were built under the WPA, with few projections of future growth, and no maintenance during the war."


    Great analogy.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • I'll play devils advocate. I want no part of a national grid with a surcharge on my bill for electric grid programs. When I lived in the NYISO and PJM area of the country I had poor service. Now that I live in the upper Midwest I have fairly stable and consistent power. I see large capital projects being developed and if there is a concern/problem I can go at a state level or to meetings to get answers.
    Look at the host of charges levied by the phone companies to support various laws many of which they collect years after the program is done or even that the collect fees not to remit as a tax but for them to deal with the gov.


    The problem with the auto subsidy is that a portion of your property tax goes to roads. The fuel tax also hurts as it goes to mass transit which can't cover its operating costs or the fact that Class 8 tractors cause 90% of the damage on roads but pay 40-50% of the fees via the fuel tax. Limit class 8 trucks to few roads and we can change the entire road system at lower costs. Match the fuel tax to inflation or make it a surcharge based on miles driven and it works relatively welll; atleast compared to SS, Medicare, etc.
    10 Jan 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, I think the difference between the two is that road traffic sometimes needs/wants to go coast to coast or otherwise long distances, IE a truck originating in Savannah sometimes needs to go all the way to Seattle, and it's a damn fine thing that we have the interstate to do that... but the same cannot really be said for electrons. There should never be a need for electricity to travel *that* far, and so, I think in this case SiHiBi's is the better overall concept--more locality means more independence, more redundancy, more fault isolation, less chance for blackouts to expand to ginormous geographic proportion as we've seen in the past... it's the spider vs the starfish concept again, and I think for our national electrical grid we want it to be more starfish-- as maximally robust and resilient a network as possible, with as many nodes as possible capable of sustaining independent operation as well as being able to contribute/receive to/from neighboring nodes as necessary...
    10 Jan 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • i'll add another perspective, apart from performance/efficiency of the electricity: security.


    a large, monolithic national grid will have a large monolithic computer security policy ... which when compromised by "internet baddies" would be disastrous ... or, perhaps, merely when a critical personnel laptop gets stolen would compromise the billions of investment in the system requiring a re-write at new expense.


    a network of micro-grids, each pursuing their own security policies independently, and perhaps subject to IT audits ... and certainly regulated/required to have certain policies in place (e.g. strength of encryption, firewalls, etc), would fare much better for national security purposes. you'd have a genetic diversity of IT systems with different vulnerabilities which would not be compromised in one total, mega disaster.
    10 Jan 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Exactly. That too. The air gap could prove a lifesaver...
    10 Jan 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not sure either way.
    Just to mention; there have been failures of smart grid components.
    California spent millions straightening out one such mess already.


    I will point out that when the blackout of 2003 hit; a nearby town had their own generation system. It was not affected by the outage.
    (My favorite little local restaurant stayed in business with a generator for the kitchen and tea lights on the tables. It was the only place of any kind I found open in a drive around my town.)
    11 Jan 2013, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • Froggey: And a further demo of the possibilities: During hurricane Sandy all but one CPST remained fully operational and providing power. The one that failed was under water - 9 foot IIRC.


    Imagine that kind of robustness against natural disaster spread throughout the country with networking and dispatching of energy from still-running generation to places needed, if infrastructure is still in place.


    Each micro-grid can determine if it keeps power local or participates in exporting energy to other places. With site-specific certificates and strong public key encryption they would also be robust, although any one site would not be 100% immune, against black-hat attacks.


    11 Jan 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • pzatrick, I do see major grid upgrades AND microgrids both contributing to robustness. The challenge with today's grid is bureaucracy, underinvestment, and a stifling / irrational / inconsistent regulatory environment. Grid and microgrid is not an either / or.


    Many parts of the country do not have good resources for microgrids. Much of the country does not have access to piped natural gas, and most of the country has (very) poor wind resources.
    11 Jan 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • HTL
    What no snorkel ?
    11 Jan 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • They haven't developed the deep-submersible version yet. :-))


    11 Jan 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Right, HTL...


    I can see the next wrinkle for Capstone...


    Dual-fuel turbines, switching automatically from running on NG to tidal generator.
    11 Jan 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Pg 13 starts some of the interesting stuff for me.


    The Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium
    PROSPECTUS 2013-2015

    10 Jan 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Very interesting IIndelco.


    One would think that an entire industry is trying very hard to ignore the best solution. Hard to ignore cycle life in battery testing , I would think.


    Thanks for the report.
    10 Jan 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • I'm a little surprised that the Honda insight with an ultra battery showed little battery degradation after 100k miles.


    I would have thought there would be significant sulfation of the lead half of the negative electrode.


    10 Jan 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: I also liked (haven't finished reading yet) on page 5 the "In this way around 6 % of reduction in emissions can be saved and this could be extended to about 8 % if regenerative braking were to be included".


    A 33% additional gain with regenerative braking in place suggests there will be enough incentive to add it and make the PbC about the only choice, so far, for the non-SLI battery component, if cost is a major consideration, and we know that it is.


    10 Jan 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, adding regenerative braking to a non-electric drive train is not cheap.


    A hybrid or pure EV has the electric motors already installed. Allowing those motors to operate as generators / brakes is fairly straightforward, and very common.


    A traditional ICE has only a mechanical drive train. Adding electric motors for regen braking (more weight, more cost, more complexity) is unlikely to be cost effective for only a 2% gain in projected fuel savings. Statements like you quoted often "forget" to factor in the decrease of mileage that the additional weight of electric drive causes.


    Note that a regen system is only effective up to the size of the generator. A small lightweight generator will have little stopping power, so the mechanical brakes will be doing a lot of the stopping (and losing energy). A pure EV (like Tesla) or parallel hybrid (don't exist yet, but ePower is supposed to working on one) have an advantage here - very large drive motors that can operate as powerful brakes.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rick: I was thinking that the generator on the engine might get upsized to do the job. If that's not reasonable, for technical or other reasons, what about just a motor slaved to the drive shaft(s) or the transmission?


    I'd hate to think that sort of a set up was so expensive or technically complex as to be prohibitive at the low end. Might not get 100% of possible regeneration but a substantial portion?


    10 Jan 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • HTL: One COULD add a motor to the driveshaft, but if you are going to do that, you might as well make a light hybrid and use that motor for some propulsion, too. As you noted, "at the low end" price is paramount.


    I question whether the additional weight penalty would actually improve mileage for all drivers. Drivers who always coast to a stop, and drivers who continually slam the brakes, get no benefit from regen.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Rick: thinking in bell-curve fashion, let's hope 80% or so fall between the extremes of slam and coast. Without the motor adding some take-off benefit, I guess the weight penalty could loom large.


    Details, details!


    10 Jan 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Rick said: "Drivers who always coast to a stop, and drivers who continually slam the brakes, get no benefit from regen."


    I thought I'd read that regen can be tuned so that it does occur during coasting, or even anytime the foot is off the gas?
    10 Jan 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie: Maybe they had this implemented in the vehicle? From page 15 # 5, "Recent ALABC studies have shown that the duration and sequence of the high rate charge-discharge pulses in the range between 0.1 and 100 seconds is what determines which process will control the charge/discharge reaction. During the short pulses mainly capacitive processes take place, and the capacity doesn’t decline. Selecting the right pulse duration allows separating both processes by time".


    This in a section discussing how to prevent certain types of degradation in performance.


    10 Jan 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • I have to side with Rick on this one. A "little bit" of regen braking will cost a fair bit to implement, but only save a "little bit" of energy.


    Seems unlikely to work out as an investment.
    10 Jan 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Well, rest assured that if it would work mechanically and financially, someone will test it out and use it...doesn't sound like low-hanging fruit to me, though.
    10 Jan 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • With the LC Super-Hybrid using an ISG (Integrated Starte/Generator) to capture what they claim is regenerative braking to power the super-charger, I was thinking a simple scaling of that might be feasible too.


    10 Jan 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Good point, HTL
    I had missed that in my previous looks at the LC...


    "CPt belt-driven integrated starter/generator


    It not only spins the engine into life seamlessly and ultra-quickly (in
    just over one quarter of a second), but it can also be used to recuperate energy and even assist the engine."

    10 Jan 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Read der text first.


    Video of the BMW regenerative braking system

    10 Jan 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • It will be interesting to see how well the extra large starter/alternator works as regen. BMW is not adding an additional motor, just enlarging the alternator (for faster recharging) and starter (for the very frequent starts). Combining the units probably has no or minimal weight penalty, so could be effective.


    I still suspect the "regen" will be mostly marketing - the engine itself is a huge resistance between the alt/start and the wheels.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • On a different theme, but drawing on the same document IIndelco posted: in the past we've wondered about why Axion didn't collaborate more with the ALABC, such as on the LC Super Hybrid Project.


    Perhaps the following from the ALABC prospectus provides some of the explanation:


    "ALABC may support the development of patented technologies. However, ALABC members must have access to the patents for a reasonable, preferential fee, which must be agreed to by ALABC members prior to providing funding, and full access to all information developed with ALABC funding" (p. 28).


    If I'm understanding that right, it really doesn't sound like it would be advantageous to Axion: granting access to their patents would not be worth it at all.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty, That's a good point.


    BTW, I also still agree with JP's point. If you already have the ear of and access to the test labs of the OEM's why sign up for the trials of an industrial group trying to get their attention.


    Discalimer: I'm pretty sure John made this point first.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie, I'm not surprised if this testing was done in an accelerated time frame. Perhaps the 100k miles was put on in under a year and thus would not really stress the battery. Far different if let's say 12.5 k miles/year for 100k miles. (About average US driving from some years ago. Haven't looked lately.)


    I need to go back and check deeper but some of the top level info. that comes from these studies is not very valuable without the underlying elements of the test. Just a teaser if you will.


    PS I'm glad my WOT shared humor brightened your day a little. Hope you feel better soon.
    10 Jan 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, just some terminology housekeeping: don't you mean *series* hybrid?
    10 Jan 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-lane: You are right, regen set points can be whatever the engineers decided.


    I tried a very optimistic scenario of a 30 mpg car with 10 gallon tank with 1kw regen coasting 33% of time, 50 mph average speed, at 100% efficiency, and calculated it would only produce 2kwh of power per tank, or 20 cents. You can play around with my assumptions (especially 100% efficient and 33% coasting), but the value seems to low to bother about, except for marketing.
    11 Jan 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • 48, if you are referring to my post at 10 Jan, 11:33 AM, I wrote "light hybrid" meaning "mild hybrid". My error in being unclear. See I definitely did not mean series hybrid.


    If you are referring to my post of 10 Jan, 11:10 AM, I wrote "parallel", thinking of a full hybrid, like a Prius. Parenthetically I was (subconsciously) referring to a series hybrid.


    Sloppy me. Thanks for keeping an eye on my writing.
    11 Jan 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, it was in reference to the 11:10 post, and fwiw it's been my observation that generally very little in your posts could ever be characterized as sloppy. But when I spotted the rare outlier I thought I'd try to contribute something to our collective S/N ratio by flagging a potential point of confusion...


    Each according to our measure and all that. ;)
    11 Jan 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Monday October 22, 2012


    Donald Sadoway


    MIT Professor Donald Sadoway plans to minimize the world's oil dependence with the first liquid metal battery.


    on Colbert!!!!

    10 Jan 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • 1/9/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 56, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 179487, AvTrSz: 3205
    Min. Pr: 0.3304, Max Pr: 0.3392, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3361
    # Buys, Shares: 48 162736, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3359
    # Sells, Shares: 8 16751, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3373
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 9.72:1 (90.7% “buys”), DlyShts 8800 (4.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.53%


    The comments linked below were all in APC # 195 and you may have seen them already.


    I commented about what I thought was unusual activity today, including what I thought was an unusually large ATDF ask.



    My real concern was whether what I was seeing might suggest very low short sales today. MrI corrected me on the ask size just below that comment and when daily shorts were available I posted a comment suggesting maybe I have learned something useful.



    I'll avoid repeating much of what's in those comments.


    On the traditional TA front, it looks like we may be starting a “reversion to the mean”, after a decent rise from the low of $0.2751 1/2/13 to the high of $0.348 yesterday, 1/9/13. This would dictate a ~$0.31 target and, likely, a little overshoot to around $0.30x. It's very early to suspect this action but there are several supporting indicators.


    First is that we appear to actually have entered that rising trading channel I've been suspecting was forming. We have the the rising support origin (low of 11/13), touches at the lows of 11/21 and12/27/12-1/3/13 followed by a move up off that line. We then encounter the rising resistance originated at the high of 11/14 with touches at the highs of 11/27-8, trades at and above 11/3/12-12/6/12 (then price was “pushed” back into the channel by my newer long-term descending resistance lines) and more touches at the highs of 1/7-1/8 followed by the first day of what I believe will be a down leg.


    If my take on what's going on with the market-makers holds any water, this seems a very likely behavior. Any positive PR could destroy the scenario, of course. More on market-makers later.


    Anyway, since we have, including the origins, 4 touches of the resistance and three touches of the support and what seems to be the start of a leg down, I'm feeling strongly that we have established a rising trading channel. My long-desired “grind up” may have materialized!


    With a slope of ~$0.01/week, if we take a week and make a full “leg down”, the target price would be ~$0.3050, where the rising support would be encountered. This fits well with a “reversion to the mean” scenario. But do not be surprised if a full re-trace doesn't happen (ignoring my take on the short sales implications). If a turn in sentiment is in progress it is relatively common for only a partial leg down to be done before reversing. This is often seen as a bullish indicator, but I've seen it fail to rise above the resistance about as often as it does rise above.


    This completed the sixth day of “pushing” my experimental upper Bollinger band, which matches the recent behavior prior to a re-trace. All the oscillators I track have gone flat, many in the overbought range, except ADX, which rose to 23 while DI- is flat down at 8 and DI+ weakened from 32 to 23.


    The MACD is still strengthening, up to 0.011 and 0.006 on the signal and average respectively. Being a long-term oscillator, this is not in conflict with a short-term retrace scenario nor a rising trading channel.


    Today had an opportunity to apparently confirm part of my understanding about market-makers, JP's thoughts that there is double counting, and one of the scenarios that don't generate short sales. I posted a comment identifying activity I thought related to my trade.



    When the trade confirmation came available, I believe another small piece of the puzzle(s) were filled in, as detailed in my response to that comment, which follows immediately after the prior link.



    On my experimental stuff, average trade size was below what I think is normal retail size – as JP mentioned in the past, market-makers working hard to make the trades. But note that when we saw this same situation in early December we took a leg down and, as I noted above, I think that's what is beginning again now. Also in that period we had a relatively strong buy:sell ratio along with lower volume and today was relatively low volume which was well below all my averages.


    My experimental inflection calculations have begun to show weakness in the 5-day version. This appears in the original version and the two new modified versions which include some attempts at greater sensitivity with fewer false indications.


    Past instances of this suggest we get some sideways movement before any big drop comes about and this indicator would continue to weaken substantially if a drop is likely.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    10 Jan 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • As JP has pointed out, the entire energy-storage sector has come to life in 2013. A bullish individual stock chart is always more reliable as part of a bullish sector. Further buttressing the bullish picture for AXPW are the charts of solar and wind-power stocks and ETFs which have been accelerating to the upside. It looks increasingly like 2013 will be a very green year for investors in AXPW. Having said that, I agree with HTL that momentum in AXPW seems to have stalled, so, absent news, a pullback is likely. I have a bid in at 0.31.
    10 Jan 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • I will bet you a steaming cup of coffee you will not see it and that tomorrow or Monday we are well into .34 and .35, consolidation ended today and we never broke below .33 (I was about to bet 5,000 AXPW shares, but then that is very serious talk :-)
    10 Jan 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • I think it's no clear call as any one buyer/seller can push the price, but I think the 200dma near .33 is a strong line. There may be a couple of overshoots, but there is a good chance the line holds, IMO.


    It would be foolish to sell now, with ePower news around the corner. In addition, the financing is no reason to sell. With a 10% discount, the stock might not even fall that much. Even at 10%, you are looking at a doubling or tripling on strategic financing news. If you can ascertain the odds of that event being under 10% then maybe you have reason to sell. But then again the ePower news might make it a wash.


    Call it a free dice roll here.
    10 Jan 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • i don't think consolidation ended, but i also don't want to be short shares right now with epower trucks/Norfolk/financing. i expect better than 31 cents a share terms i guess.
    10 Jan 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Don't know that I understand enough about technical analysis of stock prices to even ask appropriate questions, but here is a question anyway.


    Is that a "head and shoulders" formation about 60% developed since 12/31/12 in ?
    10 Jan 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • JAK, Ranma, Mathieu: IMO investor sentiment and upside risk have little to do with what will happen until some confirmation of some news comes out. I think it's all about MM action right now. Sans news another day or two at least before they start changing their behavior to move price where they want it to satisfy 1) their profit motives and 2) their customer actions, in that priority. They want to make volume again so they can make money. The low-risk way is to move price into a range that brings in the buyers again.


    Since the Axionistas are mostly already well positioned, they have to bring in the new folks.


    MHO and incomplete knowledge, as always,
    10 Jan 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • I've done some toying around the last couple days.


    I've noticed anytime I put in an offer the entire offer is shown. And yet we have these 2500 share offers which we guess are probably MM's. I've put some small blocks in front of them to see what would happen. They will often jump in front to a point and then stop once pushed to a certain area (maybe the gap between bid/ask groupings?). Did the same thing in both directions with the same results a couple times.


    Next I pushed them in one direction and when they stopped I pulled the offer and their block was still shown. Waited awhile and no change. (We are in a state of PPL-Piss Poor Liquidity). Then I threw out a large block best offer on the other side of the showdown. Boom, The MM with the 2500 share best offer on the opposite side of the bid/ask immediately pulled their offer. This did not happen with the same game with smaller opposing block.


    So, My theory, at least where we are right now, the MM's are just trying to drum up trading activity. Looking for a poker face indicating their interest in making the stock go up or down I can't see one.


    The puters are alive and well even in these little pennies.


    So I'm done being bored here. Just offering this for others to chew on. Am I bored or what? LOL


    Edit: I wrote this and published it before I read HTL's post above which I just read. I'm a slow chicken pecking typist!
    10 Jan 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: "... the MM's are just trying to drum up trading activity".


    The least-risk way for them to do that is push price down via hitting the bid (maybe naked shorting too). The reason is manifold: a falling price generates momentum in that direction *unless* there's a bunch of buyers in the weeds waiting. So the MM can short into the bid, encouraging others to reduce their bids as they see trade price fall, ... letting the MM cover his shorts at ever-reducing prices.


    If the MM should push it up and get momentum going that way they would be chasing the price up, needing to short ever-larger quantities to stay near market-price. And if there were a bunch of buyers in the weeds that saw the momentum and thought they better hop aboard, the MM could be in "Dire Straights" (one of my favorite bands).


    My take right now is that one or more MMs are comfortably long cheap shares and want to hold price up until they are near-empty. The other poor MMs that are not so blessed can do nothing but watch for now because the long MM will have a relatively high bid on the other side to force folks that want to buy to come in above it, making it more likely that the long MM can dump his shares at a better profit.


    One that's achieved, it's free-for-all again.


    10 Jan 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • H2L, thought you might like this as well.

    10 Jan 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... that is "Dire Straits" (one of my top 10) like the water way as in "Dover Straits" or "Strait of Hormuz".
    10 Jan 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, that's a good one Kent!


    11 Jan 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    As you know I don't follow the technicals like you do. But, I certainly noticed that when 1 1/2 million shares traded in one day it drove the price up. Now I see that a very weak demand of 100,000 shares in a day did not move the price at all. Tells me that the stock is sitting in pretty tight hands and it will take an "event" or "announcement" to move the stock. There really isn't a lot of it for sale and not a lot of people wanting to buy or sell it.


    If in fact it only took demand of 750,000 shares to drive the price up then I would double down on my observation.
    10 Jan 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist: I agree on the strong hands. But it's apparent that there is some trading going on and the volumes suggest a lot more than we might anticipate.


    Regardless, my interest in the low-level details derives from trying to understand causes of price and volume behavior when all the complex pieces ae in play - from investor sentiment to the "mechanicals" so that I might better make a SWAG about "what's next" short-term.


    The long-term is not so much my concern because, as we know, "short-term the market is a voting machine and long-term it's a weighing machine". With that in mind, I think my long-term concerns are adequately addressed. So my goal is to take advantage of the voting patterns before the weighing patterns are fully in place.


    For *me*, this means I need to know "how it works and why".


    10 Jan 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Not sure if this needs pointing out or not but Kent and HTL accounted for 85% of the volume yesterday. 60k from Kent and 10K from HTL and the buyers of those makes 140K on a 170K volume day.


    I would say remove those two to get a better feel for "No one is selling" but their could always be others with a similar type of legitimate reason to depart with a few shares, but Kent's sale definitely seemed like an anomaly b/c he just moved stuff into an IRA. Really very few sellers and hardly any evidence of anxious selling even after hitting above .34 which we hadn't hit with any type of volume since July. Buyers taking a break to look around seems reasonable but only for a day or two. It will be a test of strong hands but I expect low volume small consolidation maybe at .325 and then move back up to .37 rather soon.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • JaK: It's certainly something to consider. But here's another.


    Is what Kent and I did out of the norms? With thousands of individuals responding to individual situations and needs, I'm not sure we can say, effectively, "discount this and look at that". If we were in the normal range of decisions, vs. say the "big uglies", then ...


    I think it's safer to assume our action was just another small slice of normal activity, regardless of volume.


    As Wtb(?) pointed out one time when he thought I was subtracting larger anomalous trades out of the daily volume, that can be risky. Fortunately I wasn't - I was just informing when I saw something that was out of the ordinary for the day so folks could consider that however they wanted.


    Your comment falls in that same vein, I think - possible useful information for folks to weigh and consider if they should discount it. So it *is* useful to bring it up.


    10 Jan 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • i don't think you discount it because we know why it happened. plenty of like reasons to act the same way we don't "know" about.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • We are sitting on the top Bollie, holding ~0.33 (which is good news), and taking a breather. The whole market is taking a breather, in fact.



    Buyers were out in force this week. Now everyone is waiting for earnings and various other shoes to drop.


    I need to find a way to keep current with the APC's without having to sit at my computer all day, not for the pps blow-by-blow, but to wade through the banter and get a quick download of the major energy technology points of the day.


    One day away from the APC's, and you are looking at hundreds of posts.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Good thing is that important topics tend to come back up frequently.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting cliff diving ...


    "As part of the “fiscal cliff” legislation signed into law on Jan. 2, the monthly cap on money employees can have deducted, before federal income and FICA taxes, from their paychecks to pay for transit costs — if an employer offers such a benefit — has been increased to $240 in 2013, up from $125 in 2012. That translates to a potential savings of hundreds of dollars a year in commuting costs."


    Transit cap increase will benefit many SEPTA commuters


    mgoldberg@thereportero... Posted: Wednesday, 01/09/13



    For once, seems more public interest than private interest in "pork"
    10 Jan 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Neither type of "pork" would exist in an equitable tax system. Like employer-paid medical insurance premiums, those transit subsidies should be subject to FICA, medicare, federal and State income tax.
    10 Jan 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • OT ,
    Article about the new Manhattan type project looking at rare earth metals.


    I'm thinking they are going to have to add coconuts to the list.
    10 Jan 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • They've apparently automated the coconut harvesting process

    10 Jan 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • John, Don't scare me like that. I thought they were replacing the monkeys! Should have watched the video first before I had the caution signs printed up in preparation for a possible banana pay dispute.

    10 Jan 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Per Rosewater's website (change was made this morning), Brant Renewable Energy now a partner:



    Brant's website:



    Just started reading it. Among other things, it says, they are "a division of Brant County Power Inc." Also says:


    "In May 2009, the Government of Ontario introduced the Green Energy Act created to help Ontario phase out coal, combat climate change and build a strong, greener economy. This act will increase and encourage the production of energy from renewable sources such as wind, solar, bio-energy and water.


    The province is pushing to phase out Ontario’s single largest greenhouse gas producer— coal-fired electricity generation— by 2014 and replace it with other sources of energy."
    10 Jan 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like they took down the other middle eastern company and the Axion logo ...
    10 Jan 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • I figure that Rosewater's still playing w/ their website somewhat, given the incomplete wording in some of the tabs they changed recently. In that vein, Amlak is back in the Partners tab. Amlak is an interesting company. Not sure what to make of them. Present themselves as being conected to people and companies with money, influence and real estate development. Hey, if they want a bunch of PCs and HUBs and want in at 50 cents/share, great.
    10 Jan 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rosewater "product" offerings has changed a bit also. For residential they now claim storage capacity products ranging in size from 2kW - 100kW and 2kWh - 100kWh. No mention of "the HUB".
    10 Jan 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, that's part of what appears to me to be the incomplete/in-progress changes they made recently. The HUB's still on the site, via INDUSTRIES SERVED/Residential.
    10 Jan 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
    10 Jan 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Where's DRich!


    10 Jan 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... Texas.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Drich, You owe Will Deliver a verklempt filled thanks while everyone else held out not giving you the lead to 200... "not so long ago, I never dreamt this were possible but when I saw you, Will Deliver, become the 199th star, I knew I could become what I always set out to be...number 200!"
    10 Jan 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Johnson Controls to unveil Micro Hybrid battery demonstration module at North American International Auto Show

    10 Jan 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • I have a feeling we all will be very interested in this news, Mr. User!
    10 Jan 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • User432382: Where y' been? We missed you!


    10 Jan 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • "Leveraging a dual voltage architecture, Johnson Controls' Micro Hybrid battery system would involve a low voltage lead-acid battery and a 48 volt Lithium-ion battery that enable optimization of energy generation and consumption, thus saving fuel.


    In prospective development programs with key automakers, the 48 volt battery could support higher power loads such as electric air-conditioning, active chassis technologies and the capture of direct regenerative power energy braking. The 12 volt battery would continue to provide power to the vehicle starter, interior and exterior lights, and entertainment systems such as radios and DVD players."


    Sounds interesting. I don't know how long that 12-volt battery will last, though under those conditions.
    Can a dual voltage system like that be workable?
    10 Jan 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, User!


    Interesting about JCI's new two battery system in that the 12V will be more than just a cranking battery, as the 12V will also handle interior and exterior lights, as well as the sound system.


    And the 48V lithium will be used for more power intensive jobs, like air conditioning, and regenerative braking.


    So there seems to be a division of labor, so to speak, as when compared to the PbC and a small cranking battery. In other words, the hotel load has been divvied up.


    What I'd like to know now is the cost of a 48V lithium battery plus a 12V LA battery (or, is it an AGM?).


    Seems to me that the PbC plus a small battery for cranking wins out on intitial costs, replacement costs, as well as disposal costs.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • It sounds to me like they're going to leave most of the things we think of as "hotel loads" on the LAB and use the higher voltage for additions that aren't widely used today. Now I'm getting really confused. Needless to say, I'll look forward to a more complete description.
    10 Jan 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • If I was to guess without added detail they are going to use the LAB as it's used today but reduce some of it's burden where it doesn't work well (DCA). Then they are moving the high power front end apps to 48VDC to take advantage of the efficiency of higher voltage. The balance they are leaving alone becasue things like switching and such in the vehicle is hard. All that EMI around the electronics. Plus all the investment the supply base has in 12VDC systems remains untouched.


    Then they can have the 48VDC/12VDC systems and alternator "swap spit" to tend to the 12VDC battery and keep it in a healthy operating range.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • This is similar to most hybrids. A Prius has a 12 volt battery and accessories batteries, and a traction battery at c. 201 v. The high voltage also runs the air conditioner and supplementary heater.
    10 Jan 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    The Roadster Uses a 12-volt LA battery as well. Seems to be motorcycle sized. Don't know about the Model-S. In the Roadster they reportedly replace them yearly.
    10 Jan 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • This is NOT a surprise and possibly something hoped for. A 48v system gives us a broad voltage range and plays into our strengths. The 12v lead acid battery will fair as well as it has in a standard ICE. I am very much on board with this - KIAS...
    10 Jan 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • froggey, thanks for the Tesla 12 volt note. Annual battery changes!! Wow, what a hoot. Do we record that as:


    1) Reliability
    2) Supply Chain
    3) Quality
    4) Low Operating Costs
    4) or just Engineering Hubris?
    10 Jan 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • thanks, froggey
    That is certainly news to me.
    10 Jan 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like


    "Active Power (ACPW), manufacturer of UPS (uninterruptible power supply) systems and modular infrastructure solutions, has received notification from NASDAQ that the company's bid price deficiency has been cured and that the company is in compliance with all applicable listing standards."


    Share price up $.35 (9+%) today to close @ $4.20
    10 Jan 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • 1/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 151803, AvTrSz: 3892
    Min. Pr: 0.3304, Max Pr: 0.3393, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3347
    # Buys, Shares: 23 111529, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3353
    # Sells, Shares: 16 40274, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3330
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.77:1 (73.5% “buys”), DlyShts 14641 (9.64%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 36.35%


    So far, price and volume behaving well (meaning as I expected), which gives me comfort.


    On the traditional TA front, we have extreme price compression with a low and high that are “flat” (high actually +$0.0001 up today) while volume is off ~15%, continuing the expected fall-off. Recall that yesterday was the sixth day of “pushing” my experimental upper Bollinger and today we got separation. The upper and lower have a wide spread still and the price targets mentioned yesterday, $0.31/$0.305 still seem reasonable if we take a week to do a “reversion to the mean”. All the oscillators I watch have shown the first signs of weakness, but are just starting to roll over, except the ADX continues to climb – now 27 from 23 – even as the DI+ weakens to 29 from 30. ADX doesn't care about which is stronger – it just works absolute values.


    We are still above the descending 200-day SMA (many more days of falling in store without a big “pop” into the mid-$0.4x range) and the 50-day SMA continues to rise. If price holds in this range the rise will accelerate noticeably in less than a week,


    Trading range is dropping away from our rising trading channel's resistance, as expected for now.


    The MACD continues to gain, showing +0.007 and +0.012 for the average and signal respectively and the histogram has gone flat. Not surprising at all on relatively flat short-term price and short-term falling volume on a long-term plot.


    On my experimental stuff, the daily short sales began to recover in terms of both absolute volume and percentage. The average trade size recovered a minuscule amount, remaining at the very bottom of what I believe is typical retail trading range. The buy:sell remains strong even sans price appreciation. I think the reasons are as I stated yesterday – market-makers doing their thing after our recent strong price move up accompanied by large daily short sales swings suggesting they are momentarily long low-cost shares ATM.


    My experimental inflection point calculations still have the 5-day value weakening. It hasn't yet reached the level that makes me feel strongly that a move down is in the works, but if it continues a bit longer and the other periods start to weaken, I think we'll have a signal. This should occur in conjunction with continued (and substantial?) increase in daily short sales, both volume and percentage if there's much trading volume, when the market-maker long positions are about sapped.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    10 Jan 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • This is off topic: Mark Cuban's 2004 blog post about how stocks are pumped and sold. Goes to show how much of a difference being in fashion is. Here's to a great 2013 for Axion:



    In some ways it is unfortunate, because none of the big banks have incentive to pump Axion as they don't own any nor are selling clients any. Perhaps they will in 2014, after a great 2013.
    10 Jan 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Along these lines, if Axion wins any major customer, I'm holding for the moon in 2014. I have no doubt AXPW can be a billion dollar stock very quickly if it falls in Wall Street favor.
    10 Jan 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Trying to capture the change from off-radar to on is a terrific approach for individual investors with the expertise, time and desire needed. Here's to hoping that's us!
    10 Jan 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Getting on the radar screen is the biggest challenge in any small company's lifecycle. If you go back to any of my articles that discuss the Hype Cycle, you'll see that the starting point at the far left hand side of the page is the transition from R&D to commercialization. But what you really have is a pair of hype cycles – there's a mini cycle in the R&D phase that doesn't last long and then, if the R&D company make the transition to a product, the real hype cycle kicks in.


    In a classic context like Tesla, for example, venture capital supports the company through the R&D phase and then the public market takes over. Occasionally you have companies like Axion that went public "too early" and got their venture financing from the public markets. It's frequently referred to as venture investment in public equity, of VIPE.


    We are standing at the threshold of the hype cycle and as long as the PbC continues to perform the day is coming when the rest of the world, the 99.9999% of the market that doesn't know Axion exists, will finally flash on what the company's been doing all these years.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • Yep, and that's why I'm here.
    10 Jan 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • "and as long as the PbC continues to perform the day is coming when the rest of the world, the 99.9999% of the market that doesn't know Axion exists, will finally flash on what the company's been doing all these years. "


    We are still waiting for the PbC to perform inside a product that someone wants to buy. When that day arrives (and it shouldn't be long) the stockholders will be rewarded. Nothing extra for those that waited the longest, however. :-)
    11 Jan 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • That can't be far away, now that NS has received their PbCs for the NS999.


    Although we may need to wait until the annual NS sustainability report comes out late in the year to hear much about the results.


    Mind you, an order of batteries for the OTR sometime this year would be a good indication of successful use in NS999.


    11 Jan 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • I'll settle for a 100M marketcap in 2013. =)
    11 Jan 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Heck, just moving from off-off radar to those who are looking to buy into a micro-cap off-radar stock should get us toward 50 cents. I'd think even the new buyers that will find us are still way in the backwoods of the market. Outside of our seeking alpha niche this stock is largely unknown.
    11 Jan 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Ranma, very insightful read. Mark Cuban seems to have a certain flair, which made it an enjoyable read as well.
    11 Jan 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Axion confirms shipment of NS 999 batteries in late December.

    11 Jan 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • PR Boo-yah...


    Now... what we need is that to show up on NSC's headlines on Yahoo , Marketwatch , etc
    11 Jan 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Nice confirmation of the grumblings heard earlier Jveal.


    The phrase about ongoing efforts into charging stations is interesting. Did I just read on the concentrator about a new relationship with a company that makes such a thing? I'm drawing a blank as to the name.
    11 Jan 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks jveal. Will mark that as COMPLETED on my sales projections. If NS is ready for the batteries, I think there is a pretty good chance the 999 gets rolling in the next 30-60 days.
    11 Jan 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • I sent message to Jason Aycock who is managing editor of Market Currents at Seeking Alpha. For future reference when I'm not paying attention (or for Axion staff reading this), Jason's details:
    11 Jan 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Jveal. My am coffee just started tasting a little sweeter. Nice to get confirmation on JP's grape vine vibrations.


    So could we read into this that a possible fund raise avg. price window hasn't started yet? Otherwise this information might have been issued sooner. Just some TFH tuning.
    11 Jan 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • I think you are right Metro because of shelf life issues. Announcement was music to my eyes when I read it. Finally some actual good news. Wonder if we will be punished today? :<D
    11 Jan 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • ii,


    The $475,000 should help delay the need for financing.


    My initial thought was that NSC can't hide the 999 for long with confirmation of battery shipment. In fact, NSC probably kept Axion from announcing until they were confident with installation and readiness to run in a few days.


    My hope is that we will soon be getting reports of NS 999 hard at work.
    11 Jan 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • It has made it to msn money headlines





    And bizjournal


    Some Redlion trader site and WALB 10 News

    11 Jan 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Bottom feeder alert!


    Do we dare believe this good news can go unpunished?
    11 Jan 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • 2013 is a new world Smaturin, the Mayan's told us so. The main point of me pointing out kent and htl were part of 85% of the volume the other day was merely to point out that Axionistas are calling the shots now.


    It will run like a bat out of a bad place...that is really hot. Maybe we have to wait until next week but we shall see.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • If the news is going to be positive... it *must* show up under Norfolk Southern's headlines... not just on a news wire as some note about a penny stock no one's ever heard of outside this room.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • "2013 is a new world Smaturin, the Mayan's told us so."


    :-) The tide has turned!
    11 Jan 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Jon: On Power ETrade Pro platform the PR showed associated with the (NSC) news panel.


    11 Jan 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL - thatsa one boom! bring on more !
    11 Jan 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Scottrade also has it as the latest headline on Norfolk Southern's trading page.


    Edit ###
    Other recent headlines on NS page include Goldman Sachs cutting NS from nuetral to buy (just a few days after a story reporting that GS called NS a "sure thing" in 2013 -- maybe that haven't bought all the shares they want yet.)
    and Raymond James cutting NS from strong buy to outperform.


    All the news is good news in my book. If NS gets cut maybe some of those guys will take a gander at a battery supplier to NS for slightly better returns :-)
    11 Jan 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • That will certainly enhance Q4 revenue numbers a bit. And, I really like the PR's summary of PbC performance properties,


    "The PbC properties that make our battery the chemistry of choice for 'all electric' and 'hybrid electric' locomotives – long cycle life, excellent cold temperature performance, fast charge and discharge capability, high charge acceptance, self equalization of charge in large string and in single battery cells, and above all, demonstrated safe operation regardless of temperature – all of these battery property advantages play well in a variety of other markets."
    11 Jan 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • How many new followers (200 now) will APH pick up today? How many new subscribers (693 now) to SA's AXPW articles and market currents?
    11 Jan 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • As I have suggested - inflexion for me has been $0.36 on volume.


    Positive announcements the only catalyst that would/will get us there.


    Then watch out...


    Get ready to "watch out"
    11 Jan 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Yup, when we break .35 with conviction then you know we are getting past any weak hand placement holders from last year. At that point supply and demand would seem to favor those who have held through all the turbulence.
    11 Jan 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » New APC this way --

    11 Jan 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Anyone got any bid ask level 2 data?
    11 Jan 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like