Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
  • Axion Power Concentrator 196: Jan. 11: Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications 279 comments
    Jan 11, 2013 10:12 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion Power™ International, Inc. (OTC QB: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead­-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power shipped the last skids that comprised this battery order to NS in late December and the batteries will be used to power the NS-999 "yard switcher" locomotive. The switcher functions in the train yard where its responsibilities include moving rail cars and assisting in disassembling and assembling various train configurations. In parallel, Axion and Norfolk Southern continue to participate in the development of an energy system for "over the road" hybrid locomotives, that will be much more powerful units that would require significantly more batteries.

    The final shipment of batteries to Norfolk Southern means that approximately $475,000 in revenue, attributable to the eventual re-commissioning of the NS-999, will be recognized in Axion's results for the fourth quarter of 2012, according to Thomas Granville , Axion Power Chairman and CEO.

    "As we move into 2013, we are excited about the further unveiling of our PbC battery in our ongoing program with NS. The PbC properties that make our battery the chemistry of choice for 'all electric' and 'hybrid electric' locomotives - long cycle life, excellent cold temperature performance, fast charge and discharge capability, high charge acceptance, self equalization of charge in large string and in single battery cells, and above all, demonstrated safe operation regardless of temperature - all of these battery property advantages play well in a variety of other markets. Our new initiatives going forward include heavy trucks, charging station applications, residential energy and buffering and storage for wind and solar," Granville said.

    PR Newswire (http://s.tt/1yi7s)

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC -- Sliderocket of John Petersen's presentation at the ELBC.

    Dr. Ender's Dickinson's Presentation on Axion's PbC -- Link to his slideshow at the 13th ELBC.

    Axion Power's 3rd Quarter Report and Press Release -- Seeking Alpha also published the transcript of the conference call here.

    RoseWater Joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study -- Testing will determine the effects of residential energy storage systems on local power grids.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated thru 01/05/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Activity:

    (click to enlarge)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (279)
Track new comments
  • Yea!!
    11 Jan 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • second again
    11 Jan 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • This is getting old!
    11 Jan 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Rail News: Railroading Supplier Spotlight

     

    http://bit.ly/11mJP1Q#
    11 Jan 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • The stock has moved up slightly. Maybe it is no longer broken.

     

    In any case, we usually get buying on the second day after a JP article. Monday might be interesting--2nd day after this news.
    11 Jan 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • picked up 7000 @ .3597 for moral support... its a long hard road to .43
    11 Jan 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Jon, An Axionista surface feeder. My oh my!

     

    Do they taste any different when they are not covered in mud? :)
    11 Jan 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • definitely has a different bouquet...

     

    my cost basis is around .33 in my main account... but it still helped lower my IRAs sad little .39 cost basis... progress of a sort...
    11 Jan 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    Congrats for having the intestional fortitude for buying that lot at .20.

     

    Just logged in to my computer and seeing a nice day developing - at least in the early going.

     

    IMHO we will also be getting some positive news in the near future from Rosewater and ePower, although I have nothing to base that on except an "ootsy feeling" coming from my TFH.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Metro, You're shopping list is getting some nice check marks on it.

     

    This is a gratifying one for sure. Can't wait for the first opportunity to see signs of "The little yarder that could" moving under its own power.

     

    I'm expecting Rosewater very soon as well. ePower a little later but perhaps something in Q1.

     

    For today at .36 USD or higher on the close would be a really good sign. We sat around that .25 USD level for so long.

     

    Not expecting any points without a little rim. Nothing has come easy for Axion but that's the industry as well.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Dreamliner is in trouble.
    Boeing Dreamliner hit by two more mishaps in Japan
    A windshield developed spider cracks.
    A generator in an engine had an oil leak.
    http://yhoo.it/TP5ATF;_ylt=Ajs8g7kAtb2iwj.X...

     

    FAA takes 'comprehensive review' of the Dreamliner
    http://usat.ly/VQaQEZ
    11 Jan 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Can't ever get all the bugs out until it goes into service. Sounds like Fisker also eh?
    11 Jan 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • They just need this engineer back: http://aol.it/13nKaQt (2009 article)
    11 Jan 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • "I can't think of any similar investigations, but apart from the battery fire, all the other things we have seen are 'so what?'" Paul Hayes, safety director at aviation consultancy Ascend, said of the FAA review.

     

    So, they have decided that this was a battery fire, and not just a short in the electronics? I thought they were keeping quiet until the investigation was completed...could have just been a slip.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44,
    The Boeing situation sounds like a business school case study in the making.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • I think the Boeing situation is a perfect example of how hard it is to take a design in a lab/computer and turn it into production. My biggest investing mistakes have been in companies as they make the turn and fail miserably. (I'm looking at you Bioexx).
    11 Jan 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    I've heard it both ways and also as a 'battery pack' fire.
    I don't think there will be a real answer for a while.
    11 Jan 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • The oil leak seems very minor.

     

    The windshield developing spider cracks is intriguing to me. A spider pattern is usually associated with a birdstrike or something similar. The only report I saw on this is that was reported 45 minutes into its flight so if it happened then it wouldn't be a birdstrike. If you assume its due to excess flex in the frame and it transferred to sil and window I wouldn't expect a real spiderweb pattern crack but more like a fault line (mostly straight). I've seen statements that this is like the first jet - the Dehavillland Comet which would rattle apart due to metal fatigue which killed the British Aerospace industry. I'm not there but the flex on this plane is impressive.

     

    Overall, I've heard some horror stories about the first few dreamliners not lining up when they went to attach the cockpit and fuselage. Seemingly Boeings Quality Control is/was lacking.

     

    That said the battery fire is still the big issue for me. When you are flying on two engines a battery electrical fire that could shut down both engines turning you into a brick with wings. If the battery issue becomes bigger I would assume that wil cause a review of the 777 and the new 737 design as well. BA entire future is based on taking stuff from the 787 and rolling into the 737 fleet and a new carbon fiber 777. In the short term if the FAA is really serious they may redcue ETOPs ranges to keep better eyes on things. That would be bad for BA as they really have been pushing 2 engines vs 4 on long haul.
    11 Jan 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Mrholty, some sound thoughts. I too am starting to see some normal reporting for minor incidents, which is a sound practice in the industry, getting out of hand due to the grand standing press. Perhaps this also applies to the battery issue but not quite as much for sure.

     

    In the end anything that takes us a good leg forward will not come without calluses, blisters and a few egg facials. You can sit still and play it safe but you're guaranteed to go nowhere and quite possibly get run over. Take a chance and at least you get to meet some reporters!
    11 Jan 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Okay, I'm gonna make a play for the wet handywipe award, so everybody stand by. Ok, here goes: Anyone else notice the conspicuous absence of the word "automotive" in the PR?

     

    "All of these battery property advantages play well in a variety of other markets. Our new initiatives going forward include heavy trucks, charging station applications, residential energy and buffering and storage for wind and solar," Granville said."
    11 Jan 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe because automotive is an existing instead of "new" initiative?
    11 Jan 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    Automotive is not a 'new' initiative. I don't reed anything into that.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086,
    Ditto on "new initiative" comments. A crafty play for the Springer Wet Rag award, but not good enough today.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • I know, and figured that must be it.... but it still was just a wee bit distressing not to see some small confirmation in print that automotive still has a pulse...
    11 Jan 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • no award, no nothing? drat.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe Metro will lend you his red boa and you can pretend it's the damp rag.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fine. So how do you say "Hasta la vista, baby!" in Portuguese?
    11 Jan 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Not the red one. It goes so well with the heals.

     

    Grant him the black one. It only understates the headdress anyway. Plus 48 seems like a more formal kinda guy!
    11 Jan 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ciao meu!
    11 Jan 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Don't worry 48. I'm sure that OMY will be happy to take your above comments and twist them into proof, over on BrandX, that BMW has dropped Axion's PbC battery.
    11 Jan 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • et tu?
    11 Jan 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • 48,
    Just for you! ;-)

     

    http://bit.ly/UbL8vc
    11 Jan 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • The boa's are that must have fashion accessory that really sets off an outift, unfortunately, they are molting.
    11 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Speaking of which: Where is OMY??? It seemed to be absent during this latest run.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Makes it likely OMY works for a swing trader then.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma: no doubt....
    11 Jan 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • TG can it be incorporated on this project..
    http://bit.ly/W2VcVW
    13 Jan 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Since some of you follow ZBB, and Yahoo and severely diminished the utility of their boards by preventing links being posted:

     

    Here's Marathon Capital's 9/30 holdings from nasdaq dot com:

     

    http://bit.ly/13nPLX7

     

    Here's a nice search page on that site for institutional holdings:

     

    EDIT: http://bit.ly/VtiCHD

     

    Could be useful to capture a few snapshots before the new data starts rolling in ... or to mine for other stock ideas.

     

    Not the latest and greatest data, but may still be useful before heading off to sec.gov, etc.
    11 Jan 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • AXPW is now trading back above ZBB.... the two seem to trade along similar lines...
    11 Jan 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • New partner on Rosewater's site - PowerStream Inc. in Ontario, Canada. http://bit.ly/10iqoIi

     

    PowerStream site: http://bit.ly/13nS8cj
    11 Jan 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Anecdotal info from the field related to PowerStream.

     

    PowerStream's service area is primarily north of Toronto. I moved back to Toronto in the spring and haven't been outside the city much except for this past Saturday when I went skiing north of Toronto.

     

    As we drove up there I was struck by how many solar panels I saw on the farms along the way. It was practically every single farm had a couple good-sized panels set up somewhere in the yard.

     

    I can only assume that there have been govt grants encouraging this sort of thing.

     

    But it makes me think that if one of the key features of the Hub is the integration of renewables then Ontario could well be a ripe and fruitful market for Rosewater and this PowerStream relationship is very beneficial.

     

    D
    11 Jan 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/ZCKTJV

     

    Note PowerStream's demand response program.
    11 Jan 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • 'I can only assume that there have been govt grants encouraging this sort of thing.'

     

    I also live in Ontario and have seen solar panels all over the place.

     

    The Feed in Tariff Program that the Ontario Power Authority was running is the source of the 'grants'. They were paying between 35 and 55 cents / kWh for solar power, which created a lot of incentive.
    11 Jan 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • I'm from Ontario as well. The rate for roof mounted projects under 10kW was until recently 80.2c/kWh (now 54.9). Considering that this displaced wholesale power that was being purchased by the OPA as low as 0.03c/kWh I was not impressed with the waste of power consumers and taxpayers money.
    11 Jan 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • I believe many watchers are becoming buyers

     

    Several I know are
    11 Jan 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Imagine what can happen when something we don't already know hits the PR waves .... Pretty nice action today for "old news".

     

    Wtb, thanks for the ZBB updates, most appreciated.
    11 Jan 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Poor John. He's sitting on a plane during all of this. I wonder if he knows about the announcement yet?
    11 Jan 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Come to think of it, I sure hope he's not flying on a 787. It would be ultimate irony if his plane would go down because of a fire from a Li-ion battery!!
    11 Jan 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Irony implies an accident. Any creative writers out there can get started on building the conspiracy thesis. Perhaps a movie: Who killed the PbC car.
    http://bit.ly/RKq7ZG
    11 Jan 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe this isn't about the NS announcement at all, but it is the market's approval of him coming back stateside ...

     

    I mean, Axion normally decreases in value on positive PR.
    11 Jan 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • His coming back could explain why Tesla has tanked all this month too.
    11 Jan 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • "Any creative writers out there can get started on building the conspiracy thesis"

     

    Where's Maya when we need him!
    11 Jan 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Lab: I've been out in my garage, tinkering with my forthcoming Centipede Litter, trying to figure out where best to install an APU with 4 PbCs.

     

    Quietly, under the radar, this hyper-secret project has already received three DOE grants.

     

    Panasonic, frustrated that they gave up on Lithium for any vehicles, has thrown in a 65 inch flatscreen, and Bose has agreed to provide the 2000 watt sound system.

     

    Firestone called yesterday, and said that they have honored my request of 12 Olmec (known as the "Rubber People" who predated the ancient Maya) as my future bearers, of which they located on an old rubber plantation in the Yucatan.

     

    Winnebago has agreed to provide a swiveling Captain's Chair, but I wasn't real happy with the low rank.

     

    Still working on where to put the frig, and where best to stow mangoes and papaya.

     

    I'm also working on a blender that makes no noise. But unfortunately, due to various NDAs, I can't comment more.

     

    ####

     

    It only makes sense that JP is up in the air today, as we've all been up in the air waiting...waiting...for today's announcement.

     

    For me, though, the real forthcoming announcement is the day the yard switcher rolls out successfully...to great pomp and fanfare.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • God forbid.... I candidly admit i would not be here without John!
    11 Jan 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • the .35 resistance is broken with great force. This means that we can expect at least 3 days of upward movement the next week before traders are cashing in their profits. Lets hope that we can keep this momentum. The stock is up 25% for the year, lets make it 250% :)
    11 Jan 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Sure hope you are right about 3 more up days!!
    11 Jan 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • ..
    "there is no wall"
    11 Jan 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I and HTL
    Looking at level 2 via TDAmeritrade today, it looks more and more like retail selling. I did not see too many MM with their 2,500 offers today. I also did not see MM tried to beat each other to the front of the line with .0001 lower price. I think the axonistas /retail sellers will control the price.

     

    If we follow the previous action of higher volume one day after the news, we should see higher volume and price increase Monday.
    11 Jan 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • snowbird, I don't know what to call it, but I saw ATDF increase the number of their usual 'clown car' 25k-50k selling blocks. They often adapt to the volume; slow days, maybe only one small-medium sized block, large vol days like today, many blocks of medium-big sizes. I counted at least 250k total, could have been a lot more. And they stepped up the selling in the last 80 minutes, after we touched 38 cents. But great to see yet another day where demand > supply, despite their continued selling. Helps that their selling has generally been very well managed, too. Seems professional to me.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Snow: I was out-of-pocket about 3 hors today and didn't get to see all the intra-day action. MrI seems to catch it better than I though.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • I introduced Robert Appel a few days ago

     

    He has a significant following

     

    Seems to be warning up to our favorite stock which likely brings new buyers

     

    "A few days ago we advised that we would be following AXPW on our "unofficial" Watch List, and we explained the reasons for that decision.
    (Basically, massive potential upside combined with a long history of management flubs and the upcoming need to raise more cash to cover overheads = massive risk).
    Today the stock is up almost 9% which, cumulatively, is over a 40% gain off the recent
    lows.

     

    Profit Taker has been reporting on this stock for over 7 years. We have traded it successfully several times.

     

    The present gain seems like genuine buying based on the potential growth in two areas:
    full-house backup (a massive consumer market) and batteries for electric locomotives.

     

    Both these markets are sizable in their own right, and one has to wonder aloud where this firm would be today if they had pursued these markets originally, instead of wasting (literally) years, and tens of millions of dollars, preparing for orders from the auto sector
    which never (at least so far) arrived.

     

    We will continue to follow the firm "unofficially". Readers must do their own DD and make their own decisions. As we have reported before, the tech is real (a lead-acid battery with properties of a superconductor) and almost unique to the firm.

     

    (There is a competitor in Australia, and Exide has "threatened" to try to copy the Axion battery, which is protected by key patents).
    The firm still needs to raise money this year, and management's history is wretched.

     

    Nonetheless, we repeat, if any penetration in the auto market should occur while they are developing these secondary markets, the stock will take a moon shot. The risk is still
    quite extraordinary. And the upside is potentially impressive as well.
    11 Jan 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca, thanks for sharing. He has some of it right.

     

    Kent
    11 Jan 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • "Moon shot" he got right. The rest needs an impressive amount of work that personally I am not interested in taking the time to correct. But someone would probably be doing him and his readers a huge favor by sending them a link to JP's article -- Axion Power: A battery Manufacturer Charging Forward

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jan 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • While not perfect, I think it's pretty inaccurate to describe Axion management's history as 'wretched'.

     

    It's also a mistake to conclude that Axion wasn't pursuing locomotive and hub until recently - they've been working with NS since 2009. And the hub has been a couple years in the making as well, if I'm not mistaken.

     

    I can accept AXPW as a 'watch and wait' stock for many investors but not on the basis of the criticisms cited here by Robert Appel.

     

    D
    11 Jan 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder how many "fast money" traders we got from him the last couple of days. Not surprised to see a little selloff into the day and week close.

     

    Over a million in volume again!

     

    Happy that we have some good news opportunities still to come, hopefully soon, although it seems a little odd that we've announced news twice in a row on Fridays! Though maybe with this kind of stock, having a weekend to research it for those new to the story is not such a bad thing.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • I am tiring quickly of this guy's superficial drivel. At least he spelled Axion's name right for his supposedly "large following," but otherwise he'd seem to meet the qualifications of a troll.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Axion did have an initiative to build a hybrid truck around 2009.
    The other company had a problem and it didn't happen.
    It was Vani who pushed to get it started again.
    While it may not have happened anyway it could have happened years ago. (And I wouldn't have near as much Axion as I do.)

     

    from the Q3 transcript.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    <This application is in addition to our truck OEM initiative designed to satisfy 'anti-idling' legislation with the use of our PbC battery. We feel that the unique properties of our PbC battery, high charge acceptance, fast recharge rate, long cycle life and string equalization will allow the OEM'S segregated battery system and segregated battery system to function more efficiently when the truck is at rest but still needs to run its ancillary load for example their heater, radio, electronics, air conditioning, and to do this without idling the engine and creating emissions.

     

    We resurrected this truck program after Vani Dantam, Senior Vice President Sales and Marketing came on board at Axion. We began an initiative back in 2009 that was aimed at providing a viable option to new at that time, anti-idling legislation. Vani has had a couple of decades of experience with heavy duty truck OEMs. We presented an award winning paper at SAE on October 2, and that paper brought us heightened interest from large well established heavy duty truck OEMs. We have shared data and MDAs and are moving forward with them.>

     

    This part of his criticism is conjecture of a possibility. Might not be wrong. Most of the rest is uninformed.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • >KentG & dimca ... "He has some of it right" (?) Just from this little blurb "dimca" provided above you'll never find me reading this guy more than I just did. I didn't get any indication the author had any idea what was going on within the company & no idea, at all, what the product is about. The statement that "Profit Taker" has been trading Axion for the past 7 years leads me to believe .... well, this author moves my BS Meter but if he has some luck herding the cats into what he wants to sell ... fine.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • As I understand it:

     

    Vani's truck contribution was to reopen the APU program discussion(s).

     

    The hybrid large truck program, at least with ePower, was opened due to JP's introducing Joe Pic to Andy.

     

    Then there was also the hybrid small pickup truck. I saw it in Axion's carbon electrode plant parking lot last March. Used to be (and maybe still is) on their website, too. I think Axion and/or JP said it doesn't make sense for the PbC, though, so went nowhere at least for now.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I
    On a reread, you have the right of it. I should have not mentioned the hybrid truck part.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • "Both these markets are sizable in their own right, and one has to wonder aloud where this firm would be today if they had pursued these markets originally, instead of wasting (literally) years, and tens of millions of dollars, preparing for orders from the auto sector
    which never (at least so far) arrived."

     

    Someone needs to explain to this guy the testing regiments of the auto industry and what BMW has been doing with our little PbC for the last 3 years.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • DR, I agree with everything you said but IMHO he did have two things right.

     

    "The present gain seems like genuine buying based on the potential growth in two areas:
    full-house backup (a massive consumer market) and batteries for electric locomotives.

     

    Both these markets are sizable in their own right" He went off track here.

     

    and

     

    "Nonetheless, we repeat, if any penetration in the auto market should occur while they are developing these secondary markets, the stock will take a moon shot."

     

    I should have elaborated a little more, my bad. He is very uninformed about Axion Powers' history.

     

    Kent
    11 Jan 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry froggey, just thought it was important enough to clarify.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I
    No problem.
    We want real information here not just close.
    I have no doubt JP would have called me on it.
    11 Jan 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • It was Mr. Appel who turned me on to Axion 3 years ago when I was a subscriber. I bought my first shares at $2.10 then and still have them. He advised to sell at some point around .40 as I recall, and in hindsight should have listened and bought back later. I'll just wait for the moon shoot.
    11 Jan 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Better to average down than sell at a loss.

     

    Shortens the wait to break-even, too..
    12 Jan 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Billa,
    Spoken like an investor that has yet to average down and then lose even more.

     

    I'm an expert on losing investments if you ever need the advice. :-)
    12 Jan 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist:

     

    It's a delicate balance.

     

    Don't throw good money after bad versus buy a good stock no one wants to own.

     

    And of course your guess can always be wrong.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Billa: Amen. And they key, I think, is recognizing a "broken stock" as opposed to a "broken company". Not always easy.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Oops

     

    some sort of slip

     

    "Seems to be warning up to our favorite stock"

     

    Should have read - Seems to be "warming" up to our favorite stock
    11 Jan 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • "Microgrid project draws three-dozen applications
    January 8th, 2013 "

     

    http://bit.ly/ZQZg1V

     

    "From this group of submissions a number will be chosen to move on to the next and final round, which will require detailed proposals and financial calculations. Under the terms of the pilot program, projects can receive funding from a pool of $15 million in bond funding (yet to be allocated) to use for anything except purchase of the actual generation. Applicants are likely to get money through other state and federal incentive programs or power-purchase agreements in which an outside company owns the generation and the user pays for the power. Selection for round two is expected in another month or so."
    11 Jan 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Will we close closer to .38 or .36. I hope to see the sellers sit on their wallets. I still suspect that some of the long suffering will throw their towel in early here as human nature is prone to do. However, 50+ cents by Valentines Day would be sweet.
    11 Jan 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • UC San Diego's Microgrid Gets Boost from State

     

    by Chris Clarke
    on January 10, 2013 4:00 PM

     

    http://bit.ly/ZR2dzw

     

    "UCSD reports that it saves about $800,000 per month on its energy bills as a result of developing the microgrid -- meaning that the funding so far pays for itself every ten months."

     

    From the embedded video "more info":

     

    "At UCSD, the microgrid provides the ability to manage 42 megawatts of generating capacity, including a central cogeneration plant, an array of solar photovoltaic installations and a fuel cell that operates on natural gas reclaimed from a landfill site. The central microgrid control allows operators to manage the diverse portfolio of energy generation and storage resources on the campus to minimize costs. In addition, the campus can "island" from the larger grid to maintain power supply in an emergency, as in the case of the power blackout that struck parts of Southern California, Arizona and Mexico in September 2011."
    11 Jan 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • The fuel cell is from FCE
    11 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • I'm looking at the pps live; watching about 400,000 shares being sold.
    I'm thinking WTF, who in their right mind would sell about 400,000 shares while the price is advancing?
    11 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • no one goes broke taking a profit, you can expect even axionista's to take profits along the way up. There is no way to know, but lot's of people admit to being overweight and won't be caught again like last year.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc, I too was watching the last half hour live and I must say the BIDs, ASKs, and a lot of shares were flying around. I never had so much fun watching paint dry! 8-)

     

    Kent
    11 Jan 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Some say taking profits is precisely how people go broke - outsized gains form the majority of profits. People tend to cut winners and hold losers when they should do the opposite.

     

    Right now the downside appears to be the low 30's, in the event of a financing. It will move to the mid 30's if the price and volume stays high. The financing is weeks away.

     

    Why sell now when you can capture further news blurbs and even a potential outlier in a strategic financing (2x, 3x gains?).

     

    Nope, this isn't enough to tempt me to trade.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT-
    Thanks. Of course what you say is true. I was just upset that people were throwing water on the fire and spouting off.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • I think we should all thank KentG for selling his big block and telling us ...

     

    I'm not buying any other explanation for this big move :-)

     

    [and yes I know he had a good reason! ]

     

    Who will be next?

     

    Think of it as a Mayan Sacrifice for the greater good!

     

    http://reut.rs/V1P02S
    11 Jan 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Thotdoc: MMs that were long, as I speculated recently (well, in all honestly, for much longer than "recently").

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with HTL.

     

    MM's job is to provide liquidity, so they maintain inventories by going long. If you think about it, this relates to how they keep pps from running unreasonably when speculators get excited: they sell. Some call what MM's do price manipulation. Some call it running an orderly market.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • Search $AXPW on Twitter. A few microcap pumpers tweeted today's news. Previously no tweets at all.

     

    AXPW is getting on radars.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • nice tape today...
    11 Jan 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome aboard Tickerman. Is AXPW a stock you can put your clients into, or are you here on acct of your own portfolio only, if I may ask? Commentary by those that advise others can be valuable to this blog! As well as the other people's buying power, of course! Thanks.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • My longtime focus on asset allocation, global diversification, sector rotation and use of correlations to manage risks is effective but can be painfully dry, so, while afield from my mainstream work, I enjoy the process of following micro cap companies with potentially disruptive technologies. I call them wicked wildcards. Investing in them can be exhilarating, albeit dangerous, so I use an eye dropper approach. Energy density is an area I find especially intriguing and promising as a long term play. Situations like AXPW don't warrant significant weighting in conservative portfolios, but can nonetheless lend spicy interest, and occasionally even octane, to the process.
    13 Jan 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • In one of my previous lives I was an Investment Advisor, so I know the value of both steak and sizzle. Having both made pursuading clients to do the right thing for themselves easier. Gotta like how some of the high risk/reward choices, such as AXPW, are weakly correlated with a lot of the classic asset categories. Sprinkle in some of the spice, and the whole meal can taste better.
    13 Jan 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • I've spent four years describing the steak. Now it's up to I Axion to provide the sizzle. Mercifully when folks hear the sizzle and are trying to figure out whether its steak or memorex, the depth of readily available diligence material will impress anybody who knows what the term means.
    13 Jan 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • JP, your hard work, and that of others here on this blog has lowered the barrier to entry. For penny stocks, finding good diligence material is at best impracticle and at worst downright impossible. Prospective investors can climb their wall of worry way faster and cheaper with all the AXPW info that's available now. The skids have been nicely greased.

     

    BTW, in your opinion what are the chances that a standstill agreement could come into play between the Tranche II investors (if the capital raise comes from them) and Axion? One that precludes the investors from bailing on their current holdings during, say, the new price measurement period? Frankly I can't recall if I ever signed one or if it's even allowed, or just considered implied so of no negotiating value. I do remember some fellow investors selling down, but not out of, their current holdings after the deal was agreed to. Not kosher, IMO, but I saw it happen nonetheless.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • I was one of the first lawyers to flash on the usefulness of the original Regulation S in the late 80s and that series became such a snake pit within a couple years that you'd see investors shorting all the shares they planned to buy into the market before the offering. I was delighted when the SEC clamped down on the abusers, but I hated to lose a great financing tool. I wish I had a better feel for TG's planned timing because I think what happened last year is the investors started to panic when the price began to run in January and they forced an early close to take advantage of the December trough. I love investors who have the stones to stand up and do those kinds of transactions, but they're nowhere near as concerned about the profit potential of legacy holders as they are their own profit potential.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Well, even the perceived threat of a strategic deal could help keep the financial investors honest. Seems like you're thinking Axion goes the financial investor route, though?
    13 Jan 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • I have no way of knowing. My sense is thet the PbC is far enough along and the results are impressive enough that strategic types should be willing to play for equity and preferential treatment without demanding more exclusivity or collateral rights than TG is willing to give up, but its only a sense. Axion has a lot to offer a strategic investor at this point, particularly one that wants to be at the front of the preferred customer or partner line. The only question is whether somebody strategic will share my view without demanding Axion's first born.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • I was the 6th born, so they can have me. 8^P

     

    Getting a strategic investor(s), on decent terms, could be great on so many different levels. Once again, here's to hoping.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not used to seeing you post at this time of day John,
    It'll take a while for me to stop checking the boards at midnight
    and later to see your responses to the days traffic ....
    Welcome to EST.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • "Axion has a lot to offer a strategic investor at this point, particularly one that wants to be at the front of the preferred customer or partner line."

     

    :-) SWAG -- ePower Engine Systems principals and identified fleet operator clients negotiate a multiple tranche, $5 mil. deal for 2,857,143 shares plus 10,400 batteries with $2 mil. paid in immediately with the remainder paid in nine monthly installments beginning April 1.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • TWO strategic types would make things very interesting.

     

    Which one would tie up the AXPW production capacity to where the second would be blocked out resulting in much missed opportunity as second in line (if AXPW were to allocate production on some basis).

     

    Now then, this is only a driver for PbC where PbC is the only battery (system) that can make any of the applications doable.

     

    So then the question becomes which one(s) has the bucks? And then who has the most to lose if they are locked out from production and delivery when they really can't afford to be.

     

    If NS has the strategic bucks and their near-term needs for retrofitting (say, some portion of some 1000 locos over 10 years) of switchyard locos at 1500 PbC's each plus the creation (say, some portion of some 1/3 of 20,000 locos over 20 years) of OTR hybrid loco's at their even larger number(?) of PbC's, could fill the AXPW pipeline future far into the window when the other big bucks guy, say BMW, would be feeling the pinch and need for the PbC, and would just have to get in line, without preferential treatment.

     

    The truck applications best I know are not big buck guys looking for a strategic investment.

     

    Rosewater has an agreement (limited).

     

    And huge powercube demand is probably far enough downstream to not be attractive as a strategic investment to lock in future production.

     

    But, on the other hand, the utility folk could be a third contender.

     

    That's almost enough for a race.

     

    Not to mention the US auto OEM's who possibly could limp along like BMW with Li for a while.

     

    Ah, such crystal ball time......dreaming with the feet up on the desk.......cleansing the soul..........justifying the past while awaiting the future......
    13 Jan 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, JP usually posted from 10pm to 2pm PST (I'm in Cali).

     

    I assume now I'll seem him online from 3am to 7pm PST since he strikes me as the early riser type. =)

     

    This means I won't be caught staying up late reading all the posts but my Axion fix will be ready for me like the morning paper and in the evening before prime time TV. =)
    13 Jan 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • If we can hold off until a March Madness time close then we'll be good. Pre-Valentines day wont be too fun though.
    13 Jan 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Great day to be an Axionista: Solid close *above* .36c
    Looks like the famous .35c wall was merely a mirage.
    Volume north of 1 million shares for the second time this week.

     

    Can't wait for NEXT week.

     

    I, for one, haven't sold of single share of AXPW and I continue to accumulate.
    11 Jan 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Me too - tapped out now and looking forward to next week as well as the rest of the year.
    11 Jan 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • O.R: When there's news "there is no wall", to plagiarize recent Matrix references.

     

    It was resistance prior to the news AFAICT and now $0.37 is "The Wall".

     

    http://bit.ly/ZEmUd6

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Boy they'd need more than a few power cubes to keep just that one light show backed up! 8-O
    11 Jan 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • I accumulated another 7,500 shares this morning. Can no longer "average down" after today though.
    11 Jan 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • OT
    The appearance of what first appears to be a swarm of Metro's TFH in Jerusalem.

     

    A Christmas card come to life: Jerusalem hit by worst snowstorm for TWENTY YEARS as eight inches fall across Holy City

     

    http://bit.ly/UQZb9p
    11 Jan 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • If I were still a kid and I lived there, I know I'd be calling it the BEST snowstorm in twenty years..

     

    Westcoast kids of various regions where snow is more of a rare uber cool novelty than an annual nuisance will know what I mean...
    11 Jan 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Bought a few more today early

     

    Will buy more next week, and as further news develops

     

    Real money is made with smart, slow, patient money

     

    Why sell - we will see $1 for sure this year

     

    Also likely to attract the fast money at some stage. Fast money may spike us close $2 at some point before they run

     

    Truth is AXPW goes to $5 and $10 - perhaps more by 2015. What is the rush to sell? I guess if you need it fine - but if we stick together it is a matter of supply and demand

     

    300K and adding
    11 Jan 2013, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca:

     

    I wouldn't count on anybody sticking with you.

     

    Posters on this board have a common interest in Axion and related topics, but every player buys when he wants to buy and sells when he wants to sell.

     

    To put it bluntly, this is a message board, not a partnership.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca: In line with what Billa said, as with any diverse group, the parameters that must drive individual decisions are also diverse - risk tolerance, other opportunities, real life needs, ...

     

    And from my perspective, if we did a "coordinated action" of any kind we would be no better than the"banksters" and others that I despise for bilking others by taking advantage. Heck might even be illegal - I don't know.

     

    Anyway that's why I sure what little I can - "enlightened self interest". Those that share with me (all of us here) help me do better and I hope that as I learn and share I return a small amount of that benefit to others.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • There is nothing in the world that can compare with a large and diverse group of well informed investors acting in their own best interests. The Concentrators do an incredible job of leveling the playing field. A the end of the day that's all Axion needs.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Wowsers on the $10 bucks. We likely will have 140M shares outstanding by April and I wouldn't be surprised to see another 50M+ share raise down the round to expand capacity some and not just keep the lights on money.

     

    This almost certainly will be a 200M share stock someday so $10 (aka 2B market cap) would be the ultimate dream. Maybe sometime in 2018 if we can get our market cap up to 100M by year end and the double it every year from there? =)
    13 Jan 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Bloomberg Surveillance does 6+ minutes on North American Rails with 2 analysts:

     

    http://bloom.bg/XrjbQS
    11 Jan 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtb = try this one on N-S:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Jan 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks to this APC and especially the regular inputs from JP, I have come close to embracing the investment philosophy of Gerald Loeb, i.e., "put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket very carefully." Until AXPW and the cumulative DD of this blog, I'd never found the confidence to heed the sage advice of Mr. Loeb.

     

    I manage the retirement accounts for myself and my wife. She trusts me blindly to serve her best interests. This past week, I devoted a lot of time to explaining to her why I've essentially bet the quality of our retirement on one penny stock. If I were to get hit by a truck tomorrow, I can be sure of one thing. Any prudent investment guru to whom she might turn would tell her that her husband must have been suffering some type of dementia to have invested retirement funds in a penny stock like AXPW, so I needed to persuade her to follow in my crazy footsteps (or forever regret listening to more prudent men).

     

    Haven't yet sold a single share of AXPW, and hope not to do so until the stock trades well north of $1.00.
    11 Jan 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • ^ I hope it works out for you and all of us...
    11 Jan 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • I can only keep track of 3 or 4 stocks maximum, and experience has taught me that you can't make real money holding a few blocks of these and few blocks of those.

     

    So my strategy is to load up on a small number of stocks and watch them carefully. Ideally, I am looking for something else to buy while I am thinking about selling something in the next few months or so.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/PgPQbo
    11 Jan 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • 1/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later)..
    # Trds: 217, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1213987, AvTrSz: 5594
    Min. Pr: 0.3370, Max Pr: 0.3800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3620
    # Buys, Shares: 162 837953, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3632
    # Sells, Shares: 55 376034, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3595
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.23:1 (69% “buys”), DlyShts 198230 (16.33%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.72%

     

    With today's news that the last skids of batteries for the $475K NSC order had shipped in December, we had a pop on the news that took us as high as $0.38, +12.96%. As mentioned many times I had expected resistance at $0.35, which seems to have occurred, and $0.37. For today, anyway, $0.37 seems to have been resistance and the $0.38 is an overshoot.

     

    I base this on the relative behavior of the price and volumes. $0.38 accounted for 2 trades totaling 10K shares, 1 trade of 5K @ $0.3799, 5 trades totaling 22K at $0.3790, 2 trades of 19.5K at $0.3720. All told, these 56.5K shares were 4.65% of the day's total. This isn't to say the run up is over, but to advise caution in that just looking at the charts would tell a different story than can be seen from these numbers. But as the first concrete news in a long time that confirms NSC's commitment to AXPW's batteries – and it got wide distribution as it appeared on many news channels due to NSC's mention in the PR – it could be that this will begin a push up in share price. Just don't know, but see below.

     

    Continuing a break down, we see 72.25K traded at $0.37 (5.95%), 311.9K (25.69%) at $0.3650-$0.3699, 566.8K (46.69%) at $0.3600-$0.3649, 53.7K (4.43%) at $0.3550-$0.3559, 31.1K (2.56%) at $0.3500-$0.3540, 24.3K (2%) at $0.3460-$0.3498, 82.9K (6.83%) at $0.3400-$0.3450, and 14.5K (1.19%) below $0.34.

     

    The high was hit at 14:36 after trending fairly steadily up since the open. After the high we hit $0.37 by 14:54 and never got above that afterwards. The total volume after the highs were hit was 501.1K, 41.27% of volume.

     

    So I conclude that $0.37 did provide resistance and ...

     

    The question becomes “does it have legs?”. Generally real news will sustain a “pop” 2-3 days and then begin a re-trace to at least some small degree. But with APC readers likely suspecting that the shipments had been made, or at least having confidence that they would be, I think buying pressure has to come from those awaiting confirmation, those awaiting strong price appreciation and those that were previously pretty much unaware of Axion and its developing relationships.

     

    Will there be enough folks interested in a penny stock – e.g. NSC longs who would have also likely seen the news – to come in and take what is generally considered a high-risk position? I can't say. Will one of the “pump rags” pick up on it and entice a bunch of “fast money” traders to jump on it? Does the news suggest substantially reduced risk to the degree that some awaiting that situation will jump? Stay tuned.

     

    On the traditional TA front, all I'll say about the oscillators I watch is that a big price move on decent volume (about triple the 25-day average) had the effect one would expect. Everything that has an “overbought” area is there.

     

    The close ($0.365) was a bit above my ascending trading channel resistance line (~$0.356). The big thing I'll watch for over the next couple days is a tendency to either move further above that line (rising about $0.01/week) or indications it wants to move back into the channel.

     

    On my experimental stuff, the average trade size seems much lower than I would judge it to be from watching trades in close proximity that I would bet were a single trade. The charted size looks to be near the mid-range of what I would call retail while I would judge us to actually be near the top of that range. But we don't want to go ignoring real data and favoring subjective assessments here.

     

    The 10-day buy percentage had been improving steadily since mid-December and it has now moved above a falling top trend line I had recently added. The other 3 averages have also started to move up. So regardless of today's action there seems to have been a building bullish sentiment.

     

    On my experimental inflection point calculations, all periods bu the 25-day are above zero. This creates a pattern, which began to form in mid-December and generally seemed to strengthen subsequently, precisely like others that have resulted in short-term strong price rises. I'll now switch to watching for any indications of weakening, rather than strengthening.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks much, HTL. Have been looking forward to your thoughts on today's trading.

     

    "Generally real news will sustain a “pop” 2-3 days and then begin a re-trace to at least some small degree."

     

    What would you anticipate where a 1 or 2 day "pop" following positive news was followed by more positive news, say announcement of multiple HUB sales or an ePower Engines/Axion report of strong ePower series hybrid class 8 truck performance and battery orders for more than one new truck?

     

    "But with APC readers likely suspecting that the shipments had been made, or at least having confidence that they would be, I think buying pressure has to come from those awaiting confirmation, those awaiting strong price appreciation and those that were previously pretty much unaware of Axion and its developing relationships."

     

    I very much share your perspective there.
    11 Jan 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • A couple of days ago ( i think) you noted that a small retracement was in order. I suspected that the low volume meant there were no sellers left and prices would rise.
    It appears that there still are shares available in the 50,000 share range anytime the stock approaches $.38 I say that because today as I was watching the size of the ask kept increasing to larger and larger blocks.
    I think some large holder is either trying to sell at the top or a large trader is moving larger blocks at the new highs.

     

    We wont know until the day no sellers let go of stock and we watch it lift off in ten cent increments.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: "What would you anticipate where a 1 or 2 day "pop" following positive news was followed by more positive news ...".

     

    As mentioned in some prior posts, if we clear $0.37 we have free run to, IIRC (charts not up ATM) $0.42 and then $0.47. I've not yet checked much beyond that. I do recall mid-$0.6x being on my radar somewhere along the line - Jan '12?

     

    To the other part of your question, what effect ...

     

    Let me rub my crystal ball ... It remains cloudy ... But that's never stopped me before! :-))

     

    I considered discussing that but opted instead for brevity.

     

    What I was considering is that the most likely next announcement might involve successful ePower results. If their runs were successful, those truckers who trialed it would want to jump on it quick. That would mean a battery order, likely of size which might qualify as *significant*, should be coming soon after.

     

    That sort of PR gives Axion "street cred". The penny-stock pumpers jump all over it. Some folks in the energy sector that had not heard of it start covering it, trucking rags start talking it up, etc.

     

    It would help average price remain high leading to any needed capital raise measuring period (if we are near entering it). It might help garner a "strategically aligned investor".

     

    All that led me into "What we need is a few positive events PR in reasonably rapid succession" and the possible results.

     

    I think we would blow right by those first two stopping points. This because we would have a much reduced risk profile - first adopters in a "new" application are seen as the forerunners, I think, of (more rapid?) widespread adoption. That feeds to top and bottom line results in a time-frame shorter than what folks might have been expecting - again reduced risk. So folks that might normally take 100% profit could decide to sell only a portion of their position and ride the rest (for a while?).

     

    Financing to expand capacity to meet demand becomes cheaper and might even be able to get low-rate loans without much risk with POs in hand. Any *perceived* dilution from a capital raise is less as fewer shares at a higher price need be issued. Again, reduced risk.

     

    So I wouldn't be surprised to see >$1 easily if we had, say, two more *substantial* positive events within a month or so. But of the other apps I can think of I don't see any being that close ATM.

     

    My outlier there would be NSC. I can't imagine them having the 999 ready in less than a couple of months from the time they received the batteries. But they could surprise me. Another surprise from NSC might be the increased battery order - is that for another (as yet) unannounced application? If so and we hear of such, that would be something.

     

    The trucking APUs are possible but I don't think that can happen in less than several (3-6?) more months.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, we are thinking similarly except, perhaps, regarding NSC. Given NS999 history and prolonged testing for both yard switcher and OTR locomotive applications, I tend to think along the same lines iind has expressed and will be surprised if we do not see the locomotive in the field before the end of the month. I also think it likely batteries for an OTR locomotive will be purchased this quarter. NSC's Jan. 22 cc could be a news occasion for AXPW as well as NSC.

     

    On the capital raise, I believe the previously suggested adequacy of capital to operate through March 2013 did not anticipate delivery of NS999 battery order or any significant sales to either truck OEMs, renewable energy projects, frequency regulation providers, or home users. The burn rate over the first nine months of 2012 was about $2 mil. per quarter or $700K per month. Delivery of the NS999 battery order plus November sales to ePower generated $500K in Q4 with materials costs already expensed. January sales to truck OEMs, to Rosewater for residential HUBs, or to NSC for an OTR locomotive could affect timing of the next raise (if it was not set last year) as well as pricing of the shares.
    11 Jan 2013, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • Today's high, 0.38, is the exact same high we hit on May 29, 2012. Once we break 0.38, 0.40 is next.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • I believe axion has two more events up its sleeve - an ePower announcement of some sort and the APU project. We're I management I'd be trying to push out the measurement until after both events were public. We're I money I'd be trying to push for an earlier close. These things always involve tensions on both sides, but developments and successes are always good things.
    12 Jan 2013, 04:51 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist: I didn't catch all the details, but I do recall also seeing the ask go to ... ~49.xK(?) later in the day. So I think you hit on something there.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: Just keep in mind that *everything* has taken longer than we hoped or expected. On the 999, the reason I don't expect it so soon is the combination of conflicting shop schedules, possible move in and out of the shop as other work has to be done ahead of the 999, careful final design and fitting of all the components (I expect this qualifies as a "complex system"), final verification procedures (whatever they are) before release to the yard, ...

     

    Of course, since the 999 has been in and out of the shop a couple times in the last couple months, they might be further along than I'm thinking, but ...

     

    "Expect the worst and hope for the best and you can't be disappointed" is guiding me on that one.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Billa: I don't think $0.40 is a resistance, but a "churn" or "consolidation" point from the past. On a one-year chart it only comes into play as the highs in the bottom of a "cup and handle" formation, ~1/13/12 - ~4/13/12, that failed after the run up to $0.64 in January.

     

    For some folks that will be just "break even" and they won't want to sell there if they see a *strong* possibility of appreciation *finally* materializing after waiting so long. As can be seen in the cup's handle, and subsequent failure, some folks got out during that time (check 4/26 volume ~2.35MM, e.g.). So I think, net-net, we won't have a lot of supply left from that period that wants to sell at the $0.40 level in a bullish environment.

     

    This suggests to me that shares being released are from more recent action. So what's making me think $0.42 vs. $0.40 if we break $0.38 (and for *me*, that's not a benchmark at all - when we leave $0.37 I think we blow right by $0.38 like it wasn't there)?

     

    Think what the squiggles on the chart and the various support and resistance points are representing - I mean beyond sentiment.

     

    They represent buy/sell decisions *likely* based on some *percentage* move combined with sentiment. We know that astute *traders* have percentage loss/gain price points pre-determined as entry and exit points. Swing and momo traders respond to the charts and price point action. Good investors my have similar target points in mind but likely combine them with their perception of sentiment.

     

    So, *if* $0.38 was resistance, I think the move to $0.40 would be an insufficient percentage move to trigger heavy action in a bullish environment. Of course, there are folks with various entry price points in hand and there will be some action around there. But other than the psychological "round number" effect, I don't think it's a major resistance point.

     

    In all fairness though, my $0.42 is also only a "churn" or consolidation area - in the cup's "handle". But relative to recent demonstrated action, the percentage move from $0.37 to $0.42, ~14%, seems to me to offer a greater likelihood of strong resistance than a move from $0.38 to $0.40, ~5%, or even $0.37 to $0.40, ~8%.

     

    In a positive news environment, the decision to wait for more gain is easier than otherwise. So only well-disciplined traders and a (relatively small?) cadre of folks that went long at various distributed lower price points would be likely to release for the smaller gains? If the "sentiment" is still bullish I think there's likely more than enough willing buyers to overwhelm supply to keep price moving up.

     

    Harken back to John's discussion of his crossing averages on price and volume too. Looking at his charts in the header you can see it wouldn't take much to cause his crosses.

     

    I don't track the same way he does, but on my experimental charts we can see the high-volume spikes are getting larger since September. The four periods I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100, have all been trending, generally, higher for almost a month. My price low, VWAP and high are all above the 200-day SMA now for 5 days (low only 4 days), which should be seen as bullish. The 200-day still has a lot more days to drop, putting price higher and higher above it barring any *big* re-trace in price, and the 50-day SMA has begun the earliest stages of going parabolic, leading to the traditional "golden cross" (John uses a shorter SMA for the penny stocks and those are very near to crossing).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Good TA work & comments...I agree with your analysis.. I will only add this:
    Don't get worried or surprised at selling into the rally, many have purchased shares at .25-.28 and they may sell off trading blocks for a 50%+ gain. We also have politics on the debt ceiling that may encourage some to profit take along with a % of their holdings.
    This should be taken as "normal". Not negative, and maybe just sound investing/profit taking.
    12 Jan 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Seems to me that today's strength in AXPW was disproportionate relative to news that was a given with only the precise timing not known in advance. I suspect that a major reason for this break-out move was the fact that anyone closely following NSC was introduced to AXPW on Friday by a press release that couldn't have been much more bullish for AXPW. Considering the coming capital raise, the credibility given Axion by this news should have a value to Axion many times the half-million of the contract involved.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Alpha, that is true ... the real test & credibility will be when it rolls out of the shop and goes to work....we can not afford failure.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • While Axion would suffer from a failure, NS would suffer far more because their initial rollout was such a high profile event. They spent far more time testing the PbC than they did with the original design and build on the NS 999. I think the possibility that NS will suffer another failure is highly remote.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • HT:

     

    I didn't mean to imply that .40 is a major point of resistance. I was merely trying to characterize 0.38 as a temporary plateau and 0.40 as the next step up.

     

    It looks like resistance is somewhere in the mid-.40's, and not because sellers are going to bail there but rather because last year's buyers at that pps are already in. So we are looking for new buyers.

     

    I don't see any long holders selling anywhere south of a dollar. Our run is just starting to begin, and news is going to be coming fast and furious (for Axion) in the next 12 months or so.

     

    Also, 0.40 is my average pps.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • John, Not to mention all the lessons learned. This, of course, is part of why they spent so much more on round two preparation. They clearly didn't understand the engineering exercise before they launched Gen I. In hind site, Thank God they didn't launch with PbC the first time. As you suggest, they are very prepared this time and while there will be added findings in the field to make adjustments they should be few and minor.

     

    Never feels like it while you're waiting but in cases like this patience most likely will yield something worth the wait. I'll be the first to admit it's taken forever!
    12 Jan 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Billa: <*chuckle*> "Also, 0.40 is my average pps".

     

    One of my accounts has it's cost basis at $0.42. Maybe we both subconsciously are wedded to "our book"! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder what EnerSys is saying around the board room "mission" table today, given that it was their Odyssey battery that failed in the GenSet 999, back in 2009:

     

    http://bit.ly/uYBkC8
    11 Jan 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Any record of Axion talking to EnerSys? EnerSys makes a very good AGM, a PbC version might be a good addition to the product line.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • I thinking that NSC, recognizing Axion's floor space availability. would not take delivery until they were ready to dress out the racks and drop them in the NS999. Axion is so close by that it really doesn't make sense for them to take them in advance. Well no reason I can think of.

     

    Even on the outside chance they wanted to pay the bill in 2012 for some reason they could do this and tag them as NSC property on Axion's floor. I've done that many times in the past. Nope, Just no reason to take delivery of the ball unless it's "Game On".
    11 Jan 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • I think John mentioned that it wasn't great to keep the batteries in storage?

     

    The big question I want to know is: Did Axion already receive the money for this order, or does it now have $475k more to work with? That could buy them another month to negotiate.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, Surely not good to build before you need them. But it did appear that's what Axion did in anticipation of the NS999 project occurring earlier than this. If they tended to them it's not so bad from a quality standpoint.

     

    From a manufacturing point it's never perfect but there are reasons at times to do this.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: I was thinking the "how long until" same thing today. Given the "airport test" with the PbC, I'm guessing NSC would not have taken delivery of the 30HTs until they were ready for near immediate installation.

     

    Hoping we see a roll out within a couple of months, and I want to be there for it. Better yet, I'm hoping we see a successful roll out before the next cap raise. Would not surprise me a bit that the batteries are already hooked up and working smoothly.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • I don't remember the technical details, but I recall John saying the batteries were partially built, then put in storage to await NSC's order. That way the batteries will still be "fresh" when shipped.

     

    That's what I meant. I don't think NSC delayed because of storage space.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Finding this took me a bit:
    < Axion Power Concentrator 193: Jan. 3: Latest News [View instapost]
    Milhouse> AGM batteries that are filled with electrolyte at the factory and taken through the formation process don't particularly like sitting on a shelf. It's better for the batteries if they're shipped as close as possible to the installation date.
    If you think back to the November CC, Tom said the NS batteries had been built "in duff" and they were awaiting shipping instructions. To complete a duff battery, you have to add the electrolyte, close the final seals and run the battery through the formation process. It typically takes a couple days. >

     

    A Point I can not find the word "duff"
    This would appear to be the section that JP is talking about "in the form" may be what he meant.

     

    <Donald McCathy

     

    The question that I had was about the timing of the NS-999 testing. I think you had stated that its planned to begin in early 2013, but I guess the question is, how long do we expect that run forward, do we have any indication from Norfolk Southern about that and then, what would come next? I mean, obviously the goal is not just have one of these operation but to have many of them. So can you tell me a little bit more about that?
    Tom Granville - CEO

     

    Yes, we can’t speak for Norfolk Southern, and in fact we've been chastised a little bit for speaking for them in the past. But I know it’s their goal to have that NS-999 on the road, not just being tested. We’re beyond testing for the NS-999 and the testing that we’re doing is for over the road vehicle. Norfolk Southern has other subcontractors that may not be in perfect alignment with what their original schedules would have been. We have the PL, we’re finished with any work that we need to do. We’re ready to ship. We have a lot of batteries, a large percentage of batteries already in the form and can crank those things out the door pretty quickly when given notice to shift by Norfolk Southern. So the reason I wanted to read some of that report is to give you a feel, not put words in their mouth but just quote what they have said, give our shareholders a feel for what their thinking is and what their plans are going forward.>
    11 Jan 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • Thank froggey.

     

    So, if I read this correctly, the OTR train is done testing as well, and is pretty much waiting for other subcontractors to finish. Meaning we can expect an order soon.
    11 Jan 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    Nope. At least not when he said this:

     

    "the testing that we’re doing is for over the road vehicle."
    Yes its in yje above post.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • "if I read this correctly, the OTR train is done testing as well, and is pretty much waiting for other subcontractors to finish."

     

    I read TG's conference call remarks as indicating that Axion testing at this point is limited to the OTR application with all Axion testing completed for NS999 application but left the door open for possible incomplete testing by other NSC contractors for one or both applications.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • iin:

     

    Thinking about the racks, I am wondering if getting constantly smashed back and forth when the goat bangs into cars it's hooking up will have any effect over time on the anodes in the PbC's.

     

    If not, we are home free in the RR space, IMO.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Ramna: It's only a couple of skids of batteries. So your point of storage space is quite well qualified.

     

    Yet I look at today as a landmark day. A day of verification. This is a day where news brought to us that, yes, a Fortune 500 company actually did give forth an order, of which we shareholders expect due payment.

     

    Adding that this Fortune 500 company "expects" to be able to buy and pay for more AXPW batteries many, many years into the future, is just an initial signal, verification or even better acceptance, that PbC technology is truly disruptive.
    12 Jan 2013, 01:34 AM Reply Like
  • Testing in the first tier can be an excruciating process because they take so long for the initial work. The benefit is they plan the initial work well and do everything necessary for their entire project. So the battery testing for both the 999 and the OTR is now finished and won't be repeated.

     

    They've completed the system integration testing for the NS 999 and ordered batteries for the first unit. The system integration testing for the OTR locomotive continues apace.

     

    The fascinating thing about NS is the reason for the work and the timelines for EPA compliance. 2015 is not that far away. In the prototype testing stage onesies and twosies won't be enough. They will have to build and test a statistically valid sample of yard slugs and a statistically valid sample of OTR units.

     

    Some time back there was discussion of how Vani had mentioned a pretty big number at the ESA meeting. Given a fleet of about four thousand units, I can easily see how somebody might decide that "statistically valid" might be a hundred or more units spread around the country.

     

    Given the nature of the application and the time constraints facing the buyer this could become a big project far faster than any of us want to imagine.
    12 Jan 2013, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • "Would not surprise me a bit that the batteries are already hooked up and working smoothly."

     

    I'd agree Maya. Probably slowly flexing the system by ramping up the loading and charging routines. Maybe they even start with dummy loads and do this rack by rack before they drop them on the chassis. Then as a system with the hood open and then we get an opportunity to see it move out the shop doors.

     

    Hope Axion sent them the little 20 x 20 mm sticker to put on the side of the NS999 "Axion inside". As a matter of fact I hope they thought about saving postage and just sent them 50 to take care of the next couple years. ;)
    12 Jan 2013, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Remember though the time between when Axion got the order for NS999 batteries and when Axion indicated that the install was going to be in 2013. There was a long time in between these two events. Could be Axion for some time thought that NSC was doing the install in 2012 for awhile. We don't know when Axion found out exactly about the 2013 install.
    12 Jan 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Billa, I'm sure it's been modeled and the PbC batteries as units have also probably been put though shaker and shock tests in a lab. I've done this with automotive components for pack test trials.

     

    But in the end there are opportunities for lessons learned in the field trial with the NS999 revision II. That's why NSC is still labeling it a prototype.

     

    If Penn State did their job, and they sure had enough time and money to do so, we should feel pretty confident. We should also be glad we were not first out of the chute given how bad the first NS999 prototype appeared to be put together by the integrator. IMO.
    12 Jan 2013, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • I agree. In addition, IMHO their buying the batteries makes .40 pps buys of shares, +/- safe. Worst case scenario is that someone who is reliant on the company buys the company. The price would be well above .40 ps.

     

    Wait, I seem to be convincing myself to spend that $25,000.00 that's floating around in one of my accounts.
    12 Jan 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Welcome back, and as my grandmother used to say, "From your mouth to God's ear".
    12 Jan 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma: "... it wasn't great to keep the batteries in storage?"

     

    It's no problem until "formation" is accomplished. ISTR that John mentioned about 2 days for that process. I don't know how many they can do at once, but I would hazard a guess that none sat more than a few days before getting shipped as Axion would defer "formation" until the last moment.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Bill: you can bet that the NSC engineers designing the racking have that in mind and a solution designed in *if* needed. But do keep in mind that the AGM construction is more robust against that sort of thing because of the matting.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Here's a thought; the BMS for the PbCs might be able to form them after they are installed in the 999 racks. The process isn't that much different from charging the battery after it is formed. But not exactly the same. It depends on just how flexible and fancy the BMS for the 999 is.
    12 Jan 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, Can't imagine if there are any other reasons why I might be cautious doing this but one is that you'd like to make sure you qualify all the individual batteries before you went through the expense of shipping them, installing them in racks and putting them in the train.

     

    Besides, The Altoona guys want to make sure you have to bring it in the shop for a code reset when you get a new battery or more! At least one of them has to have a Bimmer! Har har.
    12 Jan 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • "Just no reason to take delivery of the ball unless it's "Game On". "

     

    :-) And what might that mean for program moving "in parallel"?

     

    Looking forward to NSC's Q4 cc and info on their 2013 capital budget.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • It's the story of my life, but the fun stuff always seems to happen when I'm out of pocket. As you might expect I'm tickled to get confirmation that the jungle drums were accurate and I'm looking forward to Monday to see if the "second day" response continues to be stronger than the first. It could really get fun if we add a layer of ePower news next week.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome Home, John.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome to the States, JP!
    11 Jan 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome to Fla. You're a 3 hour drive away... my family and I will come over and buy yours dinner when AXPW hits $3... :-)

     

    (they say good things come in 3s?)
    11 Jan 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • As tb said, welcome home.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • John, Hope you and yours had a good flight. Welcome back to the land of cheap turkeys and more expensive Axion Power stock.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • At one point earlier today, I felt a disturbance in The Force, a good one...
    11 Jan 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome home.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Many thanks guys. I'm pretty trashed after eleven hours in the air, but I generally recover pretty quickly and shoul be in fine form within a couple days.
    11 Jan 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome home John! It might be worthwhile to just be lazy a couple days.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    The stock market is closed for the next two days. Get some sleep and if you have a hard time falling asleep just count battery powered electric yard slugs!

     

    Welcome back to the States.
    11 Jan 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Hoping the best for you, back in the states.

     

    Try not to loose your French as you speak it perfectly ,without (almost)accent.
    And once again thanks for your blog's work,I wouldn't have heard about Axion without your commitment
    12 Jan 2013, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech "... just count battery powered electric yard slugs".

     

    Counting "goats" instead of sheep?! I never thought of that. Great idea!

     

    Getting them to jump the fence might be problematic though! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Let me add my "welcome back" to the others, and my hopes that the new time zone will be more conducive to restful nights for the leader of the Axionistas. If you can avoid the traffic, Clearwater is a great place to live.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • I've worked from my home for a couple decades and don't expect that to change. It's not that old dogs can't learn new tricks, they just realize that some learning experiences aren't worth the effort. Our setup in Clearwater is very conducive to my style of living and working.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • John, if the family hasn't gotten flu shots, get them soon. Ya'll have a different set of antibodies after years in Europe.
    12 Jan 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • The nice thing about the flu is it respects no boundaries.
    12 Jan 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Welcome back to the good ol' USA, John. It's great to know you had a safe trip. I hope the TSA was kind to you and yours.

     

    "It could really get fun if we add a layer of ePower news next week."

     

    Seems like you are teasing a bit about ePower news next week.
    I know you can't just come out and say it...we will just have to be in suspense all weekend now.

     

    TimZ
    11 Jan 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • ePower was expected before Christmas. It wouldn't have taken much to push the project into the crazy time, I have to believe everybody was back at it in force last week. Unless there are significant issues, it's hard to see much more waiting.
    12 Jan 2013, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • Hi JP,
    Hope the move went well. Now all you have to do is get used to the new time zone while losing the jet lag. Jon Springer may have some tips for you when your belongings get here to help make life easier.

     

    I would dread moving since I have lived here for 33 years. I would probably call in a dumpster and start over (if my wife let me). ;-)

     

    My best to you and yours as you readjust.
    12 Jan 2013, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • The move will be a work in process for another couple months but I think the hard part is behind us. We'll be sharing a big estate with my wife's partner while their project is in the development stages so most of the infrastructure we'd normally need to create after a move is already in place and fully functional. So I expect the transition to be pretty painless. It feels good.
    12 Jan 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Welcome to Florida John. We have beautiful weather just for you!

     

    Enjoy
    12 Jan 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you for doing everything in your power to make me feel welcome.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • My wife and I will be taking our coach to Tampa on Tuesday and setting up in the fairgrounds parking lot for a few days. The RV Supershow starts on Wednesday and goes through Sunday. We meet up with a bunch of friends there and check out the new coaches for 2013. Someday I hope to see PbC batteries on board for the house power!

     

    http://bit.ly/WAbHZ1

     

    Right now we are taking off on the Harley for a nice ride through the countryside. What great weather we have to go out and play in!

     

    80 degrees and sunny, got to love winter!

     

    RBrun357
    12 Jan 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Well RBrun, Here in NY it's currently 50 degrees and we are expecting 60. Not exactly Harley driving weather but unseasonably warm for here. Just thought I'd brag a little before we go back into the 20's on Monday! ;)

     

    Oh well, Maybe Axion will heat things up a little next week for us Northerners.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    Don't forget to put your suntan lotion on when you go outside! ;-))
    12 Jan 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • It's about 14 here in the Denver area 2.5 hours before kickoff.
    Go Broncos!
    12 Jan 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: If you like to ride, and year-round, a snowmobile suit, apple-warmer and ski gloves (or heated ones) allow it. In Denver CO I rode all year round ... when I was younger and more ... "dedicated" to it.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun, Thanks. Coulda' got a bad burn.

     

    Well maybe not since Rochester NY is the second or third worse city in the nation for cloud cover. Now where's that light box? :))
    12 Jan 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, No way around here. Have you seen the way people (mostly inexperienced youngsters) are driving these days given all their electronic devices? And when you have the snow fall we are just melting off it's difficult to get off the road if you have to bail. The cold you can manage as you mention. It's the idiots that'll get you every time. Snow and ice just put the cards too much to their advantage.
    12 Jan 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • I am interested in people's thoughts on what Axion might be worth in a few years if everything goes well. I am sure that this issue has been discussed but I am relatively new to Axion. I discovered John's articles a few months ago and based on his articles and other DD have established small positions in Axion, Exide, and Maxwell.

     

    For Axion, I was able to get comfortable that they do have a battery that is better and based on the importance of batteries, the number of potential applications, and the price I bought a relatively small amount of stock. I am considering buying more but would like to understand more about the economics.

     

    The only discussion I have seen on the ultimate value of the company was a statement by John that he would be disappointed with a value less than $12.50, this seemed to be based on his criteria of a 10x return. $12.50 would be great and if that were a reasonable value I would be willing to take considerable risk. That price would mean a market cap of more than $1B assuming no shares are sold. We know that the company will need to raise money shortly ($10M?) and that they will need more to go into mass production ($50M? or $50M per manufacturing line).

     

    Is a $1B market cap reasonable? How profitable could Axion be? How many electrodes can they sell and what will the margin be? As I mentioned I am sure that these issues have been discussed, but I would appreciate any thoughts on these issues.

     

    Thanks very much.
    12 Jan 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • When I got involved with Axion in 2003 I believed that it had a solid honest shot at a billion dollar market cap if things went well. Since then tha market has developed in a way that truly favors the PbC's strengths and minimizes the importance of its weaknesses. With the developments I've seen over the last few years, I think my original estimate of potential value was too low. There are still a huge variety of risks and challenges, but they're a different kind and level of risk.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John.
    12 Jan 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • One other question about Exide. I don't know if this is the right place to ask this question but I will ask because the expertise is here. As I mentioned above I bought a small amount of Exide based on reading's John's articles. But after reading John's last article, I am less bullish on the stock. It seems like Exide will go up based ( in part) on regulatory requirements but that Exide's battery really do not provide good value to the customer in those applications (the value goes away after one year and the systeme was designed with a three year payback) and that only Axion really provides good value. I am considering selling Exide and using the money to increase my stake in Axion. I would appreciate any thoughts.

     

    Thanks.
    12 Jan 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • jc,
    I was heavily in Exide stock from the beginning of 2012, based on the turnaround and restructuring story. But I recently sold all of my stock and put a large chunk of it into Axion.
    Until the last cc, Exide was promising the $20m restructuring savings from the Bristol closure would be realized in the most recent quarter (4q cy2012). In the last cc, they pushed that back to mid-2013, and I kind of expect that to be pushed back again.
    They also announced the idling of the Reading plant, and will be taking a $4-5m writedown in the next earnings release, and "about a $1m" writedown for restructuring in India. This, and their reference to "new restructuring initiatives" led me to believe that the restructuring they have already completed and was supposed to be finished has not been giving them the results they had expected. In short, I think they will miss earnings by a lot in Feb.

     

    The bottom line is that Exide manufactures yesterday's technology, and Axion has tomorrow's. I am not saying that Exide won't become more successful than they are today over the short term (1-2 years), I would just rather get on the winning team as quickly as possible after reading the writing on the wall. IMO

     

    Hope this helps.
    12 Jan 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • jc,

     

    I made the same choice made by Milhouse. I had a substantial stake in Exide because I saw a virtually assured double or triple once the awful mess was cleaned up, combined with a low level of long-term risk. Partly because the mess turned out to be more enduring than I'd hoped, and partly because I concluded that Exide's hopes for future prosperity would be dependent on it obtaining access to Axion's PbC technology (or some comparably effective technology yet to be known and proven), I dumped my entire stake in XIDE and replaced it fully with AXPW. While AXPW is often described as highly risky, I think that reflects a very shallow level of thought. The owner of a disruptive technology occupying the sweet spot of several huge industries is assured of very high demand for its products. I have greater confidence in a double or triple by AXPW than I do for XIDE, accompanied by a substantial possibility (I'd say probability) of a "moonshot", the magnitude of which will be heavily dependent on obtaining one or more major contracts in the automotive sector.
    12 Jan 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Milhouse and Alpha, I did the same thing as you--after months of frustration I dumped all my Exide and traded in for Axion.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • "While AXPW is often described as highly risky, I think that reflects a very shallow level of thought."

     

    Hey Alphameister, very well put! And precisely my own sentiments.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jcrjg

     

    Exide and JCI appear to be unwilling to partner with Axion. JP has started an end around which, if it happens, in the not far off future, may hurt them badly. Essentially John has suggested to a Global 100 company, the disruption of the LA battery industry.

     

    From Johns article
    How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market

     

    In late October I gave a keynote presentation at Batteries 2012, one of the largest lithium-ion battery conferences in the world. During the conference, I was buttonholed for a couple hours by the chairman's global strategy team for one of the top three lithium-ion battery manufacturers in the world. They started by explaining that their Global 100 company is abandoning the plug-in vehicle market to focus on sensible applications where it can earn a reasonable margin. Then they started drilling down with a series of detailed and probing questions about whether any of the principal lead-acid battery markets might be an attractive opportunity for a company with their size, scale and stature.

     

    While it may strike some of my readers as heresy, I told them that the lead-acid battery sector's biggest vulnerability was in the rapidly evolving micro-hybrid market where industry leaders Johnson Controls (JCI) and Exide Technologies (http://bit.ly/Qem9C8) were focusing on the battery products they wanted to sell instead of the battery solutions their customers needed. After all, if legacy industry leaders won't respond to changing customer needs, then it's high time for new leaders that will respond.

     

    My comment over here appears to have disappeared.
    Possibly in the Grobert silliness.
    Over on Altenergy stocks my comment was

     

    John
    Interesting conversation!
    Could Axion work with a dozen smaller LAB manufacturers?
    Would the OEMs go for this kind of setup?
    THX

     

    <The original plan was to start with two or three partners in each market region (NA, Europe, Asia) and keep supply relationships close until the technology is established and demand reaches a point where additional partners are needed. Because of the way patents work we might also see vertical division in a region where Partners A and B do automotive while Partners C and D focus on rail and trucking. As long as the OEMs get their needs satisfied with good service, I suspect they'd rather deal with a local Axion partner than Axion at distance.>

     

    IMO this was as important as the rest of the article put together, but.....
    .I seem to be the only one who thinks so.
    I'm not sure why but it seems to have been ignored over here.
    Exide and JCI will be playing catchup at best.

     

    OTOH
    " whether any of the principal lead-acid battery markets might be an attractive opportunity for a company with their size, scale and stature."

     

    Stray thoughts: Global 100 company looking for an attractive opportunity in the principal lead-acid battery markets.
    Buyout possibilities?
    Can you think of a low priced lead acid battery company?
    One that would fit the "size, scale and stature" of a global 100 company?
    Such as, oh .... say .......Exide?

     

    From John's comment I don't think this is what they were thinking at the time, From the comment my take was the already have a presence the may wish to expand. From the article however, it might be a thought or a plan. I don't know if John can clarify any part of this or not, if he can, I expect he will. (After some rest)
    Either way a global 100 company is now seriously looking at partnering with Axion.

     

    P.S. The presentation was in Oct I don't know how long it would take for it to be news. Is this to long or I think more likely too early?

     

    Well some things to think about in your Exide decision.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks to Millhouse and Alphameister. I think I agree on Exide and will probably sell my position shortly, though I want to think a little more. The one thing I would say about the comment about Axion being risky, is that I agree that it is shallow to say that just because a company is small or new it is risky. Maybe you know more about Axion and its competitive environment than I do, but I do see it as a risky company, though one with significant upside. I see financing risk, operations risk, market risk, and competitive risk. I think Axion has a very good shot to be successful but it does not seem certain to me (otherwise I would be heavily invested). Even if the company is successful, I think the financing risk could mean that the current investors don't get the majority of the benefit.

     

    Thanks.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • My tracking chart on Exide has just completed a wonderful golden cross and I think the stock is getting ready to run. Since they'll be reporting earnings soon, I'd have a hard time deciding right now if I was thinking about moving out of Exide and into Axion. My expectations for Axion are very high but Exide's looking pretty good too.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77,
    Your response is another reason this APC is so valuable. You see things from a different perspective and situation than I have or am in, so that you focused on things that I didn't notice at the time. You just brought up things I hadn't thought of in that way. Thanks for furthering my education.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • froggey---one thing unclear to me then and now is whether the Global 100 company might be looking for profitable niches for its lithium ion batteries, or is it looking for non-lithium ion battery profitable opportunities? One could hurt Axion and the other might help.
    12 Jan 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks froggey. I had read the article but did not make the connection that you have. I will think about it. My initial thought is in order for Exide to be attractive to that company they would need to consider Exide a company that was going to be making something important, which is my concern about Exide. It does not seem like they are making something important, but rather something that temporarily fills a regulatory need. If I was going the Global 100 company I would only want to acquire Exide if I could put some other piece with it to make Exide more attractive. The way JP has described it that could be Axion, there may be others.

     

    thanks.
    12 Jan 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • The company I met with is one of the top three lithium ion battery manufacturers in the world. I didn't sense any desire to diversify into lead acid, but they were very focused on markets where lead acid might be vulnerable. The biggest issue from their perspective was finding market niches where they could charge a fair price and earn a decent margin because margins in consumer electronics and electric drive were being driven into negative territory.
    12 Jan 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the clarification, John. Only natural that they, and their lithium competitors, would be exploring profitable uses for their batteries. Kinda funny, actually---reminds me of the dotcom hype cycle, where eventually traditional economics dominated. Oh, yeah, that profit thingy really is important, lol.

     

    So what are the implications for Axion? Lithium will still cost more, but it might spill into niches that are left vacant by the lead-acid guys if it's the only solution offered at scale. JCI seems to be pursuing both chemistries (e.g., their lithium 48v/LAB12v dual battery proposal). Hope the lead-acid guys get it in gear w/ Axion.
    12 Jan 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Oh shucks! Thanks John
    I tried to get some clarity, I think in the concentrator, but as I said it disappeared.
    Well the buy out is off the table but the end around is still a possibility. Even if John didn't start it.
    12 Jan 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • As JP has pointed out often, Axion doesn't need to promote itself to either Exide or JCI. If one or more major auto makers decides it wants the PbC battery, self-esteem issues at Exide or JCI won't be allowed to stand in the way. I'm convinced either of those behemoths would be all over Axion if they thought they could obtain exclusive access to the technology.

     

    Also seems to me that success by Axion in the rail and trucking fields will not only make it easier for BMW or another car company to pull the trigger on PbC but will create some degree of pressure for them to do so. A world foolishly enamored of lithium-ion for heavy-duty transport applications is about to be dragged kicking and screaming into the world of Axion's advanced lead-acid battery.
    13 Jan 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • One thing that strikes me as odd is the recent release by Penn State on their work to lengthen the life of AGM LAB's for specifically the locomotive application and then the timing of the subsequent NS999 delivery announcement from Axion.

     

    I sense that Penn State and Axion are not kissin' cousins. I get this feeling only from the fact that these releases appeared to have zero coordination that would respect the alternate party. At least this is what I think knowing what we know about AGM vs PbC. Maybe to laymen that don't follow the industry there might appear to be some tie in with Penn State's efforts resulting in Axion's selection. A stretch I think.

     

    Not that I'm thinking someone creating value in Axion's world wouldn't snicker about the efforts coming out of a lab at Penn State. Also the inverse. Two entirely different worlds with different missions.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco,

     

    I am thinking that NS delayed the delivery of the batteries and the overall 999 project until PSU completed its research on the AGM that was financed by the DOE! PSU would have to complete the research in order to satisfy the DOE grant monies. It seems to me that NS knew that PSU would announce their findings on Jan 3rd and therefore had Axion ship the batteries late December to start ramping up the project once again. It just seems to strengthen the PbC more since PSU research did not find the answer for the AGM, just a little bandaid!

     

    JMHO,

     

    RBrun357
    12 Jan 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun, Your thoughts and timing make sense.

     

    I was mostly referring to the content of the two releases. Penn State kind of implying added value from their research with no tie in to the PbC LAB hybrid and then "boom" NSC takes delivery of PbC for the NS999. Obviously some Axionista's were doing a little head scratching with the Penn State release and then we got the delivery news which we know supports your bandaid point.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco,

     

    Would I be correct in thinking that the DOE grant monies provided to PSU would have specific language in it that focuses the research to the AGM only and no comparison with other battery technology is involved? NS was probably aware of the ongoing research and how PSU was progressing and even though PSU can claim success with the DOE money they still fell way short of producing results that can be compared to the PbC. To me it is just more DOE spending that may not have been worthy of our taxpayer dollars but does further support the strengths of the PbC without even mentioning its name.
    12 Jan 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun, Well we could read the submission for the grant to find out. I think, separate from what Penn State is doing for other companies, the grants are applied for by Penn State and NSC in support of industry needs so they are both fully aware of what's happening because they are working hand in hand. I think NSC would love for AGM to meet their needs vs PbC so they'd test it. Heck, it would be good for society if Penn State found something that made a small AGM battery accept charge like PbC and it lasted forever. Too bad for them and society it's not looking good.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    I believe you have hit it, NS and PSU working together on a DOE funded grant to improve the performance of the AGM. Meanwhile NS and PSU are also working concurrently with the PBC and they discovered it's true power but had to hold up with moving ahead with the PbC until the AGM testing was completed and results announced.
    Hopefully now that is complete it will be full speed ahead with the PbC.
    12 Jan 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Hello gents

     

    This is just a general question in regards to financing and when it could happen this time around.

     

    With my limited knowledge I am basing off this time last year when the price ran up and in feb all hell broke loose.

     

    Was wondering if that would happen again and if I should buy now and wait till early feb to sell. I'm long with my other block but would like to try and catch this wave before it breaks again if it ever will by the sounds of what could happen this year.

     

    Any input would be greatly appreciated.

     

    Thanks
    Ryan
    12 Jan 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Ryan,

     

    You could catch the wave and sell in feb, but then you might miss the tsunami coming in the next couple of years.

     

    Trade now or invest for the multibagger? Tough decision for some.

     

    What are the chances we will never see $0.30's again after this month?
    12 Jan 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Lot's of Axionistas have a core position and trading blocks. There isn't a thing wrong with picking up some lunch money on the way to the big banquet.
    12 Jan 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • "This is just a general question in regards to financing and when it could happen this time around. "

     

    It could happen at any time and may have already been agreed, but then again it may not have. One might argue though, that the market has already largely priced in "dilution" effects of the next capital raise and, together with further positive PbC sales announcements before the end of the month, see realization of the raise as financing expansion rather than continuing operations and prompt share price rise.
    12 Jan 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • But it's so hard to drink that bottle of wine you bought for dinner when you know it will taste so much better in a year or two ;-)
    12 Jan 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ryan, I think you'll find that this blog is much less helpful to those who seek to trade AXPW than to those who see huge investment potential in the stock. My guess is that the sell-side of any near-term trade in AXPW will probably provide reasons for regret to the person involved. Very unlikely that last year's chart of AXPW will have any relevance to this year's chart.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister--just wanted to say IMO you've had a thoughtful series of posts. Thanks.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ryan
    One more thought: Last year Axion needed money sooner than this year. It may not happen for months.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • bang:

     

    Every time I buy trading blocks they immediately become part of my core as I am greedy SOB.
    12 Jan 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ryan: Did you ever get to sneak over to Rosewater?

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Friday I sent the link to AXPW's PR to my Altoona contact and asked how often they had the chance to notice if NS-999 has moved.

     

    A: ... have to make a short side trek to go see if it's been moved, only about 2/10th of a mile. Last time I checked, it was still set aside outside. That was 2 to 4 days ago.

     

    ======================...
    I'm not reading too much into this ... I would expect them to do as much as they can "under wraps" ...
    12 Jan 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks WTB.

     

    Was the "under wraps" comment his and your perspective or just your added comments?

     

    BTW, I agree with the perspective.
    12 Jan 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Purely my perspective. That was why I put the line of =====
    after his Answer ... but apparently Mission Not Accomplished :-)

     

    It occurred to me (and only me :-) ) later today that it might even be possible that the batteries were shipped to a subcontractor, e.g., someone directly involved in the racking, first, and not to Altoona!
    12 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: makes sense from one POV and not from another. Shipping time -> contract then => NSC delays things, ignoring the expense, albeit not a lot to NSC. Also, shipping the racks, if on a truck, offers an opportunity for damage to the racks with the weight of the batteries on them and poorly maintained roads, irrational drivers, ...

     

    OTOH, might be a preliminary "acid test", so to speak, for the racking system.

     

    My bet would be shipment directly to NSC.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Love brainstorming ...

     

    set up the racks in Roanoke ... put them in a container, ship it around a bit, take some "live" readings (hey, there's power to fire up the Wi-fi), mess with us a bit more ...

     

    finally it ends up in Altoona for the "transplant" :-)

     

    Sorry ... been watching too much TV :-)

     

    Time for our "shipping detection wizards" to get busy!
    12 Jan 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • WTB, I was pretty confident that was why you put the fence between the comments. It was important enough for me to be absolutely sure that it didn't just separate his individual thoughts from some joint thoughts.

     

    As for your sub assembly thoughts. Could be. Maybe Altoona doesn't have the right instrumentation to test racks with full battery strings as units. This would make sense to do before they were loaded. Make sure all the strings are performing and the connections are correct before they are all loaded to the NS999. They could also flex them with a charge station and dummy loads. It would be a real PITA to get everything loaded and have a poor connection somewhere after they were loaded, mounted and tied in. Same reason it stinks to have a weak AMG battery determining the success of the string.
    12 Jan 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Los Angeles DWP will allow customers to sell back excess solar energy

     

    http://lat.ms/UGWMwl
    12 Jan 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • "Fred Pickel, the city's ratepayer advocate, told commissioners that 17 cents per kilowatt hour was above market rates and could force significant rate increases on DWP customers."

     

    I believe Fred Pickel is right.

     

    Not to mention that the very stability and security of the grid itself is undermined by solar energy blasting on and shutting off as the sun passes into and out of clouds.

     

    Unless energy storage is part of the solar installations, thus allowing the utility itself to choose when that solar-generated energy is fed into the grid.

     

    D
    12 Jan 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • A short blurb on Axion/NS from Pittsburgh:
    http://bit.ly/Xttsff
    12 Jan 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • The first group of Quercus warrants expire tomorrow:

     

    2,857,143 warrants expire on January 13, 2013;
    2,380,953 warrants expire on April 6, 2013; and
    4,761,905 warrants expire on June 29, 2013.
    12 Jan 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • don't feel good about that... hope they have some to exercise... they deserve it.
    12 Jan 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • In terms of the warrants, what are the impacts (either negative or positive)? I can't recall what was discussed before...

     

    Thanks.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • The Quercus warrants are exercisable at a price of $0.75 per share. They could be a significant source of cash if the market price was high enough to justify exercise, but that will probably take some doing because Quercus faced with some tremendous liquidity problems over the last couple years and the warrants were originally issued in a private placement transaction which complicates things.

     

    If the stock price was high enough, Quercus might be able to negotiate a back to back exercise and resale transaction where the first $0.75 per share would go to Axion and Quercus would get a net check for the spread between the sale price and the exercise price, but as a practical matter that kind of deal won't be worth the effort until the market price is well north of a dollar.

     

    Since Quercus was a very active seller from March 2011 through August 2012 there's been a lot of hand wringing over the idea that their warrant position might give rise to another extended round of selling pressure. Given everything we know about Quercus' I think the risk that they'd exercise the warrants for cash and then slowly resell the underlying stock into the market is minimal at this point.
    13 Jan 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • John, When you say "well north of a dollar" I have to ask 1.25 or maybe 1.50? IMO we could be north of a dollar by the 4-6-13 when the second group of warrants expires. The added cash to Axion ($1,785,715) at that time if a raise hasn't happened yet has me wondering how it might play out?

     

    Kent
    13 Jan 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like