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  • Axion Power Concentrator 197: Jan. 13: Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications 280 comments
    Jan 13, 2013 10:17 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion Power™ International, Inc. (OTC QB: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead­-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power shipped the last skids that comprised this battery order to NS in late December and the batteries will be used to power the NS-999 "yard switcher" locomotive. The switcher functions in the train yard where its responsibilities include moving rail cars and assisting in disassembling and assembling various train configurations. In parallel, Axion and Norfolk Southern continue to participate in the development of an energy system for "over the road" hybrid locomotives, that will be much more powerful units that would require significantly more batteries.

    The final shipment of batteries to Norfolk Southern means that approximately $475,000 in revenue, attributable to the eventual re-commissioning of the NS-999, will be recognized in Axion's results for the fourth quarter of 2012, according to Thomas Granville , Axion Power Chairman and CEO.

    "As we move into 2013, we are excited about the further unveiling of our PbC battery in our ongoing program with NS. The PbC properties that make our battery the chemistry of choice for 'all electric' and 'hybrid electric' locomotives - long cycle life, excellent cold temperature performance, fast charge and discharge capability, high charge acceptance, self equalization of charge in large string and in single battery cells, and above all, demonstrated safe operation regardless of temperature - all of these battery property advantages play well in a variety of other markets. Our new initiatives going forward include heavy trucks, charging station applications, residential energy and buffering and storage for wind and solar," Granville said.

    PR Newswire (

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC -- Sliderocket of John Petersen's presentation at the ELBC.

    Dr. Ender's Dickinson's Presentation on Axion's PbC -- Link to his slideshow at the 13th ELBC.

    Axion Power's 3rd Quarter Report and Press Release -- Seeking Alpha also published the transcript of the conference call here.

    RoseWater Joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study -- Testing will determine the effects of residential energy storage systems on local power grids.

    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated thru 01/12/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Activity:

    (click to enlarge)
    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra-day Statistics. HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.


    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (280)
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  • Uno?
    13 Jan 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Second again???
    13 Jan 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Not even the bridesmaid!
    13 Jan 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Sigh.
    13 Jan 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Excited about tomorrow!
    13 Jan 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • OK, I'm lookin' to increase my odds going forward. Here goes.


    Don't you guys have any shame being on top all the time? :))


    Part of my "No slow poke left behind" efforts!
    13 Jan 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Later to bed and early to rise
    will improve your odds of claiming the prize!
    13 Jan 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Alpha. I'll quit chasing healthy, wealthy and wise changing my habits to go for the prize. Hey, gotta get something before my demise. ;)
    13 Jan 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Electric car ferry uses 10 ton battery on board, and dump charges when docked from batteries on shore:
    Wonder what they are using?
    13 Jan 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Might be imbedded in the ref. documents here? How's your Norwegian?

    13 Jan 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • That's a lot of batteries.


    First there's the 10 metric tonne battery on board. Then, because the grid can't charge fast enough, they need batteries at each port.


    Do we suppose that the onshore batteries would need to be close to the same size as the one on board to allow for a full recharge?


    I would assume that due to size and weight premiums the on board batteries are lithium ion.


    The onshore batteries are probably lithium ion as well although I bet the PbC could do the job just as well and cheaper.


    Interesting idea but does it really make economic sense?


    13 Jan 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco - didn't see your link when I wrote my reply at 12:00 pm
    13 Jan 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • "Whereas the ferry currently serving the route has an engine with an output of 1,500 kilowatts (kW) or more than 2000 horsepower, the battery in the new vessel will have an output of 800 kW. In normal conditions, operating at a speed of 10 knots, battery power of 400 kW will suffice."


    Per Rosewater spec sheet on PowerCube, a 30HT size PbC weighs 73 lbs. with rated capacities of 70Ah and 0.5 kWh. 1,600 PbCs would provide 800 kW for an hour and weigh 116,800 lbs.
    13 Jan 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, ii. From the article,


    "These motors are powered by a Li-ion battery weighing 10 metric tons."


    What are the odds that 10 metric tons includes weight of the battery and thermal management systems needed to safely operate the battery pack with reasonable service life?
    13 Jan 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, One thing to their advantage is that when cooling is required they have access to a pretty good heat sink. This should make the system more mass efficient for sure. And in this location the water temperature will stay pretty brisk.


    I wonder how many years for the environmental impact study to make sure the battery doesn't cause an algae bloom! :))
    13 Jan 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • While lithium ion cells typically have specific energy of 150 to 200 wh/kg, the number is usually closer to 100 wh/kg at the pack level. That would give a ten ton pack a capacity of about 1 MWh.


    If they're planning on using the battery at a 400 kw output for a half hour ferry trip, total energy use will be about 200 kWh, or a 20% depth of discharge.


    Recharging that beast in ten minutes will require a 1.25 Mw charging circuit, but gee whiz numbers always make for fun press.
    13 Jan 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: Actually, access to salt water does not significantly reduce the cooling system weight. The battery (or engine) coolant liquid is still a non-corrosive anti-freeze. The cool salt water is pumped into a heat exchanger to cool the coolant liquid. The salt water intake is a filtered once through system.


    If you pumped salt water through the BMS (or engine block) one gets serious corrosion problems. Of course, an electric drive system will have much less waste heat than the diesel it replaced, probably in the order of 90% less.
    13 Jan 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Rick, Yes, I realize you'd have to do this as you suggest. I was thinking you'd get pretty good advantage using cool salt water to do this vs having to use air at some variable temperature at the heat exchanger.. Or maybe you could take advantage of that big aluminum hull that's in contact with the water in some fashion?
    13 Jan 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • There are a lot of permutations for salt water cooling, but I don't think this message board is the appropriate forum. Bottom line, salt water cooling generally is a slight, not major, weight or cost savings. Some boats do run on air-cooled radiators.
    13 Jan 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Rick.
    13 Jan 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks from me too! I strongly appreciate sideline conversations like this and while you're probably right that another forum would be better, the truth is that I'm not going to visit that forum any time soon.


    Understanding different details of how electric engines are used and cooled will help anyone who's investing in batteries like these, and this kind of discussion keeps us entertained until we get more great news from Axion.
    17 Jan 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Re: electric ferry


    I think this may be blogosphere hallucinating. While the press release cited is reproduced over hundreds of eco-blogs, there does not seem to be any original material. The page at Siemens appears to have been removed. No information who is going to pay for it.


    Looking at a map, Lavik and Oppedal seem to be about 5 miles apart. At 10 mph average speed, a 400kw motor would consume 200kwh per trip, plus hotel loads. Transferring 200 kwh in ten minutes requires 1200 kw of power assuming unrealistic 100% efficiency. I guess a 300 kwh battery bank would be the bare minimum.


    So, for both ends of the route and the boat, about 900 kwh to 1 Mwh total battery requirements. If I was the designer, I think 1.5 Mwh would be a lot more comfortable and robust. You do not want to have the ferry run out of juice mid route because of collision avoidance with a fishing boat or headwinds. 1.5 Mwh @ $1000/kwh is $1.5m, before building a super lightweight aluminum boat.


    Siemens is in the Li space, this is most likely the battery system. It can output 8 Mw.


    Obviously no conventional lead acid battery would work. PbC Power Cubes would work for the shore stations, but probably be too heavy for the vessel.


    In short, the project is remotely possible with lotsa OPM (other people's money). I doubt it will happen.
    13 Jan 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Another article regarding JCIs 48V battery for stop-start. No new information, but this article has pretty picture:


    Everybody here is familiar with the BMW-Axion test cycle for stop-start with the 50A hotel load. Any guesses if electric air conditioning were added what the load would be? 100A or more? Could the 16V PbC handle this? Any idea what it would do to the cycle life - cut it in half so 4 years instead of 8? Or would the PbC need to be configured to a higher voltage also?


    Article also talks about higher power loads such as "active chassis technologies". If you're stopped at a light, do you really need to keep that active suspension system powered?


    Other interesting thing is that this setup still needs a premium battery (AGM/EFB) to handle the 12V hotel loads while the new 48V lithium battery is keeping the active chassis energized so you don't lose control rounding the corner in the Mickey D's drive-thru. I would think the cost of the LAB/PbC 2 battery solution keeps looking better and better.
    13 Jan 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • For those who are not used to looking at my price graphs I want to point out the striking similarities between the sharp turns upward that the 10- and 20-day lines took in February 2011 and now.


    The January 2012 turn hit the 200-day VWMA and bounced back down. At this moment, my 10-day VWMA is $.3247 and the 200-day is $.3263. Unless the price collapses on Monday, there will be clear penetration on by the 10- and pretty solid odds of a February 2011 sequel with no Quercus or Special Sits to squash the run.


    I think they're playing the Star Spangled Banner for the Axion Rodeo.
    13 Jan 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • The "Rodeo" would be a great name for the power-assisted drivetrain ePower is developing--tremendous power out of the gate, run it hard, start all over again in a couple of minutes.
    13 Jan 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • My first bio pic was a catfish, then a lungfish (still ugly but sometimes feeds slightly above water), then a couple weeks ago a runner at the starting block. Me be ready.
    13 Jan 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • "I think they're playing the Star Spangled Banner for the Axion Rodeo."


    :-) Conjures several mental images of mounted riders awaiting opening of the gate. Question is, Is the mount a bronco, a bull, or Quarter Horse about to launch in pursuit of that calf? :-) Or, a bit of all of the above?
    13 Jan 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • You are making my weekend...almost as much as the 49ers win.
    13 Jan 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks to the 49rs for whipping the Packers
    As a Viking fan it is difficult to root for the pack.
    Plus I loved the 9rs during Montana era when the Vikings were terrible
    13 Jan 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • next one for you MR I,i hope so if you don't mind
    13 Jan 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Very nice, tongas. But I hesitate using the word or image for "sprinter", since I think Axion can Bolt for a long, long time without running out of gas. Maybe my next pic will be a rocket blasting off. Here's to hoping.
    13 Jan 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • >Mr Investor ... Have you considered using a picture of Voyager. A long, productive battery operated device.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich---I like the image of both Voyagers travelling at high speed endlessly. Like a road trip thru Nebraska, lol. And Voyager 6 (Vger) providing the impetus for the long voyage by a colossus (JCI, Exide et al). For now, though, every endless space journey begins with a blastoff. Another here's to hoping...
    13 Jan 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I,
    Now I'm left wondering what your bio pic would have looked like over the past several months had you invested in A123.
    14 Jan 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist,
    I don't like you anymore! :-P Yeah, my Packers defense really "sucked" on Saturday.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Don't feel to bad Lab Tech. Your defense sucked all year.
    Except when you stopped my Vikings cold.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • The Packers defense didn't stop the Vikings. The Vikings' back-up QB did that all by himself.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ouch Lab Tech,
    That one stung a little :-)
    14 Jan 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • and the bears missed the playoffs...
    14 Jan 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry Mathieu,
    My Vikings really apologize for making that a fact. :-)
    14 Jan 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • My cardiac falcons finally broke the playoff win barrier for the Smith/Ryan era. They still get no respect.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Not true.
    They have lost to the Superbowl reps each year. Only ESPN announcers don't respect the Falcons record and accomplishments.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Falcons? Bears? Vikings? Packers? Who, what are these things? :-)
    14 Jan 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-I
    Each is an individual energy source. Impossible t invest in. And each one blows up for unexpected reasons at unexpected times.
    15 Jan 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Futurist, the incredible Green Bay Packer franchise, a few years ago, sold many stock certificates for $200.00 each.
    The funds raised were used to upgrade the historic Lambeau Field...more seats, more luxury sky-boxes for the increased enjoyment of the elite fans, larger HD screens, etc.
    It may be true that all you can do with the stock certificates is frame them and display them on a wall, but a purchase was definitely an investment in the club.
    It beat buying a yard of old sod from Lambeau.
    I think the Packers are the only publicly owned franchise in existence. That helps explain why there is always a sellout crowd, no matter the weather or the teams record. And why no fan leaves Lambeau until the last bratwurst and beer is gone.
    I didn't invest in thePackers...I need stock that increases in value.
    Next year...the Packers win the Super Bowl and Axion wins the biggest battery contract ever awarded in the history of the world!
    15 Jan 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • "Next year...the Packers win the Super Bowl and Axion wins the biggest battery contract ever awarded in the history of the world!"


    Time will tell for Axion.
    The Packers, on the other hand, aren't going to be winning any more Super Bowls until they find someone else to rush the QB! Clay Mathews can't do it all by himself!
    15 Jan 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • I am a shareholder of the Packers. I have three shares on my wall, two of which are Packers.


    The three shares I have are
    -1 shares of IBM that I bought with my own money that I saved up in 6th grade. When the stock split several years later I got one in a certificate mailed to me from our broker. I remember the day well. I had selected the stock as my school had gotten a computer and my dad had a mainframe at his office. My Dad took me to the bank and I brought in the cash I made mowing lawns and withdrew a little from savings. My Dad paid the brokerage fee which was something like $70 as it was an odd lot and the stock was around $95 IIRC. A few years back I was contacted by them when they trying to close out odd shares and I filed that the certifcate was lost so I received the money but I still have the share even though its worthless.
    1. I received a share in 1997 as a Graduation gift from college and got one from my wife last year. The shares were $250 plus $25 s/h. Interesting conversation pieces and I've been to one Shareholder meeting.


    Favorite Packer fact - when it snows the Packers hire people @ $10/hour to shovel the snow out of the stands and they usually have too many volunteers than the need.


    The Pack will go nowhere until they get massive help on both lines, and LB help.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Actually, the word use was a subtle reference to a couple of old Instablogs that some may want to review because they do a pretty good job of explaining what I expect and why.



    This is an educational experience for me because I've never encountered a supply and demand imbalance as large as the one Axion wallowed its way through over the last three years. Now it looks like the moment of truth has arrived and while I know a lot about "monkey sized imbalances" I don't know anything about the behavior of gorillas.
    13 Jan 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • John, just went to these Instas for a refresher and glanced to the left at your bio.


    I guess you'll have to update it now since it still says you're located in Switzerland.


    Just giving you a heads up - with justification, I'm sure the first item on your 'to do' list after touching down in Fla wasn't 'update seekingalpha bio'.


    13 Jan 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • I was kinda thinking that a phone might be a good idea.
    14 Jan 2013, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • "The January 2012 turn hit the 200-day VWMA and bounced back down. At this moment, my 10-day VWMA is $.3247 and the 200-day is $.3263. Unless the price collapses on Monday, there will be clear penetration on by the 10- and pretty solid odds of a February 2011 sequel with no Quercus or Special Sits to squash the run.


    I think they're playing the Star Spangled Banner for the Axion Rodeo."


    agree......and settling into axionista brand box seats for nice bull run....
    13 Jan 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Rick,
    I am trying to wrap my head around the numbers for the electric ferry. If I remember correctly, the Tesla 300 mile battery weighs apprx. 900 LBS. So a ten ton Li-on battery would be the equivalent of apprx 22 Tesla batteries? Doesn't seem like much to move a large ship with heavy cargo. I may be all wet, but I hope those batteries stay dry.
    13 Jan 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • The "300 mile" Tesla battery is 85 kwh. If my estimate of 300 kwh is accurate, that is 3.5 times larger. discusses 1000 kwh , which would be about 12 times larger. An initial conclusion would be that the ferry weight includes the BMS.


    The ferry is only working for half an hour at 10 - 15 mph. The Tesla "300 mile" battery is working for something like six hours at 50 mph (definitely not at normal Interstate speeds). Moving slowly (10 mph) is much more energy efficient than moving fast.


    We saw what happens to Fiskers when they got wet during Sandy I hope the ferry does not get a flooded bilge.
    13 Jan 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • If you figure a pack level specific energy of 100 wh/kg, ten tons would be right at 1 MWh. It would be quite a show if that battery went off with 100 fully fueled cars on the deck.
    13 Jan 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • "Abandon ship!" would have some real urgency.
    13 Jan 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Rick: If the notional ferry doesn't have an on board generator of at least 100kW, it sound like a floating disaster waiting to happen. An "emergency" that uses all the battery power before they get to shore is almost inevitable.


    A compressed natural gas micro-turbine would make a dandy backup generator and could push the ferry at reduced speed if necessary. Clean, too!
    13 Jan 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • "A compressed natural gas micro-turbine would make a dandy backup generator and could push the ferry at reduced speed if necessary. Clean, too! "


    Wonder if they have built in an onboard capability for drawing power from alternators of autos/trucks they are hauling?
    13 Jan 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Sili, highly unlikely they would want a very expensive, rarely-used, gas turbine with a very low density fuel source. I think I saw a 50 kw diesel generator mentioned in the Norwegian slide deck. Any Norwegians read the deck?


    D-Inv, there is no way of hooking up all those cars, is there?
    13 Jan 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • "D-Inv, there is no way of hooking up all those cars, is there? "


    :-) Clueless here, Rick, hence the question. But, I suspect there is a way to work something out there with pre-engineering. From discussion on the APCs I have the impression that a vehicle with a typical 12V electrical system is equipped with an alternator that outputs something like 100A @ 14V. If so, combined power output of ten vehicles might approximate 14kW and supply enough power to move the vessel at 1 - 2 knots.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Load up the green ferry with green EVs, and they could probably power the whole trip...


    Of course, then you would have all those bricks to unload at the destination.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv - the problem is that the ferry has to accept all cars, not just those with power outputs. Much simpler to have an emergency generator.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Isn't Poul Brandt a Dane? Danish to nerwegian would be a starting point.
    13 Jan 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Rick,
    Your explanation helped.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • I've danced with the Green Fairy, but not loaded up the green ferry. Probably not a similar experience.
    14 Jan 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Full Disclosure: Last Friday I sold 20k shares marking the first shares of AXPW that I have sold. I bought these shares last year in our core account so they could be transferred to my Roth as my 2013 contribution ($6500). It will be an interesting week for me as I buy these shares back. The Roth IRA is a very good place for AXPW.


    I am just hoping we had some sellers on vacation last week that haven't been paying attention so we have a little pullback before things get interesting. Anyone interested in sharing their playbook for my game situation? am I deep in my own territory or midfield and how much time do I have on the clock?
    13 Jan 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Ouch Tim! I can resemble that. I recently had to sell two blocks of 4K at .2865 and .306. My son and daughter had some expenses as they each start spring semester in college. I hope to have more dry powder coming in a couple of weeks. I plan to be happy if my current holdings rise drastically before then. I also plan to be happy if the big climb waits for the dry powder.
    13 Jan 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • jveal, so you are thinking I am deep in my own territory and not much time on the clock? you could be right. I had some cash in my Roth so I am good to buy back as high as $ .387 and still get the 20k. I am hoping for a small pullback so I can get more than 20k.


    ** greed alert ** this is where I usually get caught waiting for the stock to recede and it heads off into the sunset...
    13 Jan 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Quite a puzzle, Tim. Looking at recent closing price chart, it appears to me that the relative pauses in upward movement or "consolidation" phases around $.305 and again in the $.33 - $.337 might reflect traders flipping shares purchased 20% - 25% lower. A lot of recent volume around $.30 might suggest another pause around Friday's closing price level, but such volume is not obvious to me.


    The answer (for you) to your question might lie in your judgment of the effect of the upcoming capital raise and whether positive commercialization news might precede or overwhelm issue of more shares.


    For myself, I am inclined to make any further AXPW purchases sooner rather than later.
    13 Jan 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, My best guess would be you are not guaranteed to be out of the game. But that's just my feeling and I do not give advice on investments.


    Here; New for this year. I'll let you take the virgin swipe at it.

    13 Jan 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tim,
    This is a very intriging question. To my thoughts I would make my purchase prior to the CC. But, so far the CCs have depressed the stock price.
    All I saw last week was no pressure to buy and no pressure to sell.
    When that dynamic changes, no one knows.
    Good luck with your decision. But please dont wait long. $.36 looks like a pretty strong floor under this stock.
    13 Jan 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks everyone! looking forward to tomorrow...
    13 Jan 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • I'm sitting on the sidelines. Unless purchase considerably more, my upside gain is not that much greater. I'm still eyeing downside as we still have a lot of obstacles to pass over in the next few years.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • O.T
    still on marine side:
    13 Jan 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Yup, now's still a good time for "CONVERSION" of AXPW to a ROTH from your Traditional or Rollover IRA's; pay the tax on ~$0.33 per share, and then NEVER PAY another tax on AXPW, not even your estate.......of course, as all of you should already be aware, such conversions are not limited to limits of annual contributions......
    13 Jan 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • "Yup, now's still a good time for "CONVERSION" of AXPW to a ROTH from your Traditional or Rollover IRA's; pay the tax on ~$0.33 per share, and then NEVER PAY another tax on AXPW"


    Yes, that's been my strategy for the last two years for my two IRA's that I converted. Of course I bought at higher prices, so the stock has to get up to $0.5/share before I break even.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • I know y'all are anxiously awaiting the coming of great things, but let's remember the sum total of the recent news is UL endorsement of the cube and the sale of enough batteries to power a single test locomotive. I'm as excited as anyone to hear about newsworthy events, but I'm going to hold my applause until AXPW announces the order for it's one millionth Carbon anode from a major battery producer and it has established markets in several lines of business, and I'm not counting rich folks' fancy entertainment systems.
    Yahoo has AXPWs market cap at 41.34 million dollars, or 113 million shares. If this company should have a market cap of $1billion when it has established markets, that means a share price of $8 and change without any further dilution, which is unlikely if another large private placement is required. That'd be about 30x today's price, but I'm not counting my chickens.
    Sales, earnings, profits...that's what we're looking for, right? That $8/share will look a lot more achievable when there's $1/share of earnings.
    13 Jan 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla's trailing EPS is -$3.69/share their current market cap is $3.7B.


    A company's market cap comes from what investors are willing to bet the future earnings and growth will be, the more undervalued the company the bigger the return. The NS order and delivery has immense implications for Axion.
    13 Jan 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone who waits for Axion to earn $1.00 a share before buying the stock in quantity will have missed the "moonshot" and will end up buying at $20+ a small fraction of the shares they might have bought at 40c or less.
    14 Jan 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • If Axion were earning $1 per share, and investors were still buying it for the growth potential, It would be satisfying. Maybe not as much as a butterscotch malt, but pleasant enough.
    14 Jan 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • LABTECH - Well, you may have an opportunity to buy even more AXPW in Traditional IRA or Rollover space (if those are the motherlodes) and CONVERT to the Roth when AXPW dips down into the teens during their capital raising event in the near future. Nothing like paying lower conversion taxes at half the price; coming up!!!
    14 Jan 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmmm...... When MXWL was at $20/share, its previous four quarters of earnings totalled 2 cents. Given that there are roughly a quarter the shares of that company as compared with AXPW, what makes you think we have to get to earnings of a dollar to justify a rise to $8? MXWL has since upped its earnings, but has suffered a more than 50% decline in price. Earnings are certainly essential to long term health, but the relationship to price is not always temporal. IMO, AXPW is poised to rise significantly ahead of earnings and will do so with minimal good news.
    13 Jan 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • In biotechs pps is all about market potential -- blockbuster drug, billion dollar market -- and progress toward FDA approval: phase 1, phase 2, phase 3 clinical trial results, application submission, acceptance, approval, partnership.


    So with AXPW the way I see it is: market potential -- PowerCube, HUB, hybrid trucks, APU's, locomotives, SS cars -- and steps toward marketability: research results, regulatory approvals, a big contract with a big player in a blockbuster market.


    We've got all the makings here. All an investor needs is patience -- lots of patience -- and enough cash to ride until that amazing morning when BMW, Toyota, NSC, or someone else blows the lid off this thing and we are so ecstatic one of use might have a heart attack.
    13 Jan 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like ZBB is going to parlay some of the demonstration experience garnered over the past year into some conference presentations.

    14 Jan 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the information on ZBB, Stefan. Appriciate it.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • ZBB also gets a reference in one of the CT microgrid projects (UConn):


    HTML Google cache of the pdf:


    PDF doc:


    See page 27 for example


    "Schneider Electric is currently working with ZBB Energy on contract # N62583-11-NOITAthrough the U.S, Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) on the San Clemente Island microgrid design – build project under DOE DE-AM36-09G029042. ZBB Energy’s Christopher Kuhl, is working with Schneider Electric’s Jeff Coles, P.E. and Craig Robinson P.E. on these named and other unspecified projects. Together, Schneider Electric and ZBB Energy have scores of successful, similar projects including several with the U.S. Department of the Navy and the DOE Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration and Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) which Schneider Electric is working directly and indirectly on, supplying energy storage and control, as well as power distribution products and services"


    15 Jan 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Pg 31:
    "The San Clemente Island portion of this project is over 40 miles offshore, and is a true stand-alone microgrid. Since barged diesel is resulting in an electrical cost of over $.25 kWh, utilizing additional microgrid renewable energy and energy savings measures will self-fund >$25M incapital improvements. The distributed energy resources are additional solar PV and wind, and battery type energy storage, likely by ZBB who is completing a similar project on San Nicolas Island also of the California coast. The capital project, when completed will result in the island operating at 75-85 percent of “net zero energy” meaning only 25 percent to 15 percent non-renewable existing diesel generator sets will be utilized for production"
    15 Jan 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Nice find!
    15 Jan 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Anybody have any thoughts on the Detroit Auto Show officially starting today?
    Jan 14 -27.
    14-15th are for the press
    16-17 for industry
    then open to the public.


    Last year this is where BMW launched the new 3 series and 3 hybrid with A123. I don't believe before the show that anyone knew A123 had won the rights for the hybrid line. Little good it did them but it shows that BMW can keep things quiet.


    Anybody have any hope the Mr. Granville actually had an order from BMW and maybe they are going to skip the fleet and be installed when the X5 or whatever launches in its new body this summer?




    Side note. I really like the pics of the new corvette. I'm not a 'Vette guy as I like the Mustang but that is a sharp car.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • "Anybody have any hope the Mr. Granville actually had an order from BMW and maybe they are going to skip the fleet and be installed when the X5 or whatever launches in its new body this summer?"


    No, They have to do a field trail.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • I think you might hear more about the 4 series. Maybe down the road a few years the M4 might have PbC inside.

    14 Jan 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • I know they have to do a field trial. But what if you are BMW and you say to Mr. Granville last summer. "We need 300 batteries for outside testing" but only 100 go to testing and you throw 200 in fleet vehicles to do parallel testing. If this is as important to BMW as I think it could be I'd be doing parallel testing if I could as every month that gives me a jump is worth $ in sales. I doubt it would happen but I can dream for a nice $urpise. I'm just impatient.


    BTW, Jalopnik is doing a lot on the Detroit auto show.


    2014 Audi RS7 -


    VM Concept (7 Seater) -


    A Turbo-Diesel hybrid with a plug in. I like the former and less of the latter.


    The Corvette Launch was short on nudity (NSFW)


    and to not leave BMW out.
    How BMW became a terroist icon in the 70s.


    New BMW 4 series.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • VM Concept (7 Seater) -


    Looks lovely...can I have one?
    14 Jan 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • I think Granville's comments on the last CC made it clear that we should not expect to get ahead of schedule with BMW anytime soon. Staying on schedule will be a large enough accomplishment.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Well anything is possible. Automakers generally have a pretty clear vision of their product plans for many years though. These will obviously be adjusted as market conditions require some flexibility. I've been looking some looking around to try to get some clues on what time frame might offer the highest probability of PbC inclusion. Not there yet and might not be able to find enough meat to make a good guess on this. Automakers are pretty stealth in their product and tech. plans.


    All I can say at this point is that from a bottom up assessment point of view Axion is not commercially ready to service automotive. Don't have the validated capacity, capital, partnerships etc. This situation could mature quickly with a nod and Axion couldn't hide it for very long if they got one.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone know anything about a hybrid-drive retrofit developed by Echo Automotive (ECAU) that reportedly can improve fuel economy for light- and medium-duty trucks by 50% to 100%?
    14 Jan 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Conversions conventional ICE to plug-in hybrids with Li-ion battery packs.
    14 Jan 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • I gotta say I am highly skeptical of any claims that improves real fuel economy "50% to 100%", regardless of vehicle.


    Fuel has always been an expensive part of transportation. Billions and billions have been spent trying to improve vehicle fuel economies. There aren't any silver bullets.


    A technology that actually produces a real, across the board 20% improvement in fuel economy would be super-fantastically-wo... But 100%? You're smoking hopium, distributed by your local fraudster. Have I got a bridge for you.....


    Sure, there are technologies that reduce energy consumption while parked, coasting downhill, reducing some resistance, lightening the load, marginally improving engine efficiency, or avoiding traffic jams. All these can be useful and possibly profitable. But 50%-100% improvements - no way.
    14 Jan 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Rick,


    How do you feel about the ePower system?
    14 Jan 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Rick, For some reason it seems to have become acceptable when making claims to completely ignore any possibility of economic payback and to select an optimum use cycle so you can make the statement "up to". It's complete fantasy when it comes to delivering something that makes sense but "it's possible".
    14 Jan 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • I don't recall any solar or wind announcement ever listing what the expected output is. It's an endemic issue. Divide wind nameplate by 10 is rule-of-thumb.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan - "Ditto"


    I did not read ePower's links, but the same comment holds. A serial hybrid, on paper, has strong advantages. I have not looked at any numbers to confirm if it is effective and realistic.


    100% improvement? No way.


    If it actually improves mileage by10%+ and is cost effective and reliable, it will have a very large market.
    14 Jan 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • The key thing to remember with ePower is they're significantly downsizing the engine and building a tractor for relatively flat routes. The engine powering the generator is a 195 hp turbo-diesel, or about half normal size. While the engine is big enough to pull an 80,000 rig at highway speed on level ground, it needs the battery pack for acceleration boost and even modest amounts of climbing. It's not a mountain goat by any stretch of the imagination, but if you plan to use it in the flats it performs just fine and consumes about half the fuel.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • As I followed a full size school bus to work this morning it struck me that a small engine pulling children on the flat road with an electrical boost for acceleration might work for this application. A bus that makes numerous stops. Especially in flat land florida.
    How many school busses does Bluebird make a year? Millions?
    14 Jan 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not entirely sure how well a series hybrid would work for a stop and go application like a school bus because the power to recharge the batteries ultimately has to come from the engine and the ePower tractor is designed more for road use than city driving (I think).
    14 Jan 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • >Futurist ... Judging by the number of inverters we sell to them, I'd say an it runs in the neighborhood of 5,000 to 10,000 (a really big year) per year.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • I could be mistaken, but I think the ePower system also has braking energy recovery. With braking energy recovery, their system would boost fossil fuel mpg three ways -- running a significantly smaller engine than conventional rigs, running that smaller engine at a relatively constant optimum rpm, and supplementation of the fossil fuel energy with energy recovered from braking. That plus operating the rigs only on relatively flat ground, one might realize a 100% fuel improvement relative industry averages but not necessarily 100% improvement relative to conventional trucks built for use over flat terrain.


    ePower Engine Systems fuel efficiency claims have been stated relative to industry averages.
    14 Jan 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Well said, D-inv.
    Conventional wisdom is that hybridization makes the most sense for stop-and-go routes. Because of regenerative braking. Thats why the ePower savings numbers have puzzled me. Not much braking relative to the miles traveled in their targeted application.


    I think Futurist may be on to something. And there certainly are hybrid school buses on the road--in very limited quantities. I think the vast majority are parallel hybrids.
    14 Jan 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • D lane: even in "flat" driving, good gains can be made because the engine can be sized for the power required and "tuned", via engine internals (cams, valves, ...) and gearing to spend most of its time in the engine's "sweet spot".


    E.g. my 2000 'Vette gets 32.5 mpg on the highway in the summer with my light foot. The 6th gear is, IIRC, .75 ratio and in the 65-70 mph area it seems quite efficient, quiet and smooth.


    The additional gains from some kind e-assist in acceleration would be quite noticeable even on this car, which doesn't weigh all that much, ~3300 lbs?


    14 Jan 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds good, HTL. I recall that ePower is using a 4 cylinder engine. Thats breaking new ground for small size I believe. We'll continue to anxiously wait for an update from them.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • For clarity about hybrids and ePower:


    Hybrids often are very effective. Witness the Prius, with I don't know how many millions of development, electric a/c, regen braking, very low wind resistance, variable driving programs (ECO, Power, etc.), LED lighting, etc., that did not double fuel efficiency. I had a 50 mpg diesel Rabbit 30 years ago, and now have Toyota Scion with 30+mpg. A Prius (I have one, great car) does not get 60 - 100 mpg, even with Toyota's holistic approach to engineering. An add-on aftermarket product can't possibly be as effective as one integrated in the original design.


    A serial hybrid may be very effective, and certainly could use a much smaller engine than a conventional drive train. But no matter what the drive train, there is a basic physics issue of accelerating x thousand pounds, overcoming rolling and air resistance, and round-trip battery efficiencies. I remember playing around with serial hybrid concepts many decades ago, long before parallel hybrids became popular. Auto companies selected parallel hybrid technology because they thought it was the better solution, not because they didn't know about serial hybrids.


    Epower may have a very good system, and perhaps is an excellent application for PbC. It may improve efficiency by 10-20%, and if it does it may well be a hugely successful product.


    However, there is no way it can double fuel efficiency except in some very contrived scenario, say, driving downhill all the time.
    14 Jan 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Since I try to avoid arguments with my equals, if not betters, unless I'm loaded with facts and figures, I'm going to avoid this particular debate until I have some very clear facts and figures. While I can't debate the truck's performance without more information, I was able to check on Andy Claypole before I got involved with ePower. It turns out that Andy used to work for a very dear friend. The bottom line is that Andy Claypole is a very high quality executive and he's too damned smart to trumpet accomplishments based on contrived scenarios.
    14 Jan 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • "As I followed a full size school bus to work this morning it struck me that a small engine pulling children on the flat road with an electrical boost for acceleration might work for this application. A bus that makes numerous stops. Especially in flat land florida."


    I live in a suburban community with homes set back 50' - 75' feet from the street with mailboxes implanted at the street-end of driveways. USPS mail delivery vehicles typically stop at each mail box on the street to take or leave mail in the boxes, drive 30 - 50 yds, and stop at another mail box.


    IINM, every USPS residential delivery vehicle I have seen over the past 30+ years has been a Grumman LLV (Long Live Vehicle) weighing ~3,000 lbs with cargo capacity of 1,000 lbs, a three speed hydramatic transmission and a GM I-4, 75hp engine. The configuration and application strike me as very conducive to energy efficiency improvement through a series hybrid drive train with smaller engine and/or smaller engine with hydraulic/flywheel capture of braking energy and launch assist.
    14 Jan 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • For such low speed stop and go driving the simplicity and efficiency of full electric drive might make more sense. Assuming yearly mileage fits the delivery truck segment a LEAF type drivetrain could easily handle it.
    Nissan already has what might be an appropriate vehicle.
    15 Jan 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • I agree with JRP that full electric might make sense in this case because the vehicle is parked in the same spot where it can be recharged every night.


    This raises the question of fueling each vehicle with coal (via a coal-fired power plant), but alternate sources of electricity might be found.


    Fuel cells might also be applicable to vehicles dedicated to servicing this sort of limited, local route because they always return to a particular stall for the night.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Echo Automotive website:

    14 Jan 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
    14 Jan 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe it is just me, but seems like a lot of hype.
    14 Jan 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • The next round of wunderbar kids.


    13 battery startups to watch in 2013

    14 Jan 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Yup; great list of the silicon valley (mostly) battery-inatus. Also largely the reason DOE and venture funds are dried up to Axion. I guess sexy marketing still sells.


    Will be fun to check beck in 5-10 years and see who is still standing.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • I think we can check back in 5-10 months and see some degradation...
    14 Jan 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • NanoMarkets Report Projects Solar-Energy Storage Market to Reach Almost $2 Billion in 2018


    "Despite the considerable technological innovation expected in energy storage, traditional lead-acid batteries will be the main revenue generator for solar energy storage over the next decade, accounting for more than $950 million in revenues in 2018. They are readily available and low cost, yet have poor lifetimes and are becoming commoditized products. Lead-carbon technology will improve the margins on this type of battery and will be used in solar farms and solar-based microgrid and will generate another $135 million by 2018."

    14 Jan 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • ePower's website is still down.
    I hope they haven't packed their tent and left town.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • It looks like ePowers website has been hijacked. My avast virus scanner informs me that the site is being redirected to a malicious domain and blocks me from looking at it. It will probably take their tech dept the rest of the day to get it back up.
    15 Jan 2013, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • I put in a call to Andy Claypole to let him know the website is down. If he's anything like me he probably figures the website is more trouble than it's worth at this point in ePower's development because they're not selling $70,000 truck retrofits to operators from web inquiries.


    I've already had one commenter mention that I should update my SA profile to reflect my recent move to Florida. I'll also need to redesign and update my website. On my list of "Must Do" chores, the SA profile is near the top and the website is near the bottom.


    There are many businesses where a sparkling and engaging web presence simply isn't that important.
    15 Jan 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Victor,
    Thanks for the warning.
    15 Jan 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Ontario sounds like it is starting to make some moves. Hopefully, Rosewater can snag a demonstration up there.

    14 Jan 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • The Generator Is the Machine of the Moment


    IN the days that followed Hurricane Sandy, the developer of the luxury condominium 150 Charles Street hunkered down with his team of architects and engineers to rethink the building’s design.


    Just steps from the Hudson River, the construction site was partially flooded. “Their mandate was to figure out how the building would have stayed open in a storm like this,” said Steven Witkoff, the developer. “They came back with a list of five things, and we implemented every single one.”




    By Design, Water in the Basement


    The architect Vishaan Chakrabarti, in the Netherlands when Hurricane Sandy sent water crashing over riverbanks and into Manhattan, was inspired by what he saw.


    “There, they do not fight the water,” said Mr. Chakrabarti, a partner at SHoP Architects and an associate professor at Columbia’s Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, “but rather allow the lower level of buildings and parks to flood to retain the water, which is a much lower-cost strategy. This is not rocket science; places like the Netherlands and Venice have been dealing with this for centuries.

    14 Jan 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • OT (sorta)


    I have been thinking about REALLY LARGE energy storage systems and have come to the conclusion that a properly designed thermal storage is the only realistic "site anywhere" answer.


    My previous hangup was the efficiency problem, but given that solar PV is only about 15-25% efficient, the thermodynamic efficiency of heat engines driving a good generator don't look so bad when applied to solar energy.


    Power towers are costly because of the big engineered infrastructure front end cost. But flat plate collectors with a 5 to 10X mirror boost could be much cheaper. They just won't have as high a storage temperature. It's all $/Whr.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • I notice that several large orders are starting to go through. 50,000 shares bid at $.3710, 30,000 shares bid at $.37.


    These are large orders finding little takers at a price below 37cents.


    It appears the support at $.36 is a true support level.


    But who is selling 400,000 shares at $.37?
    14 Jan 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Not Me!
    14 Jan 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla., Jan. 14, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- PNC Bank announced today the opening of its new net-zero energy bank branch. PNC expects this branch, which is the company's most energy-efficient, to use 50 percent less energy than a typical bank branch and exceed LEED® (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Platinum certification. The 4,900 square foot building is located at 1153 S. Andrews Ave. in Fort Lauderdale




    DIRECT CURRENT (DC) POWER: Solar panels send energy from the sun to a DC ceiling grid system that powers highly-efficient LED interior lighting. This direct transfer of energy prevents the energy loss that would normally occur when converting DC to alternating current (AC).

    14 Jan 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb, love your links!
    Had not heard of direct transfer-solar-to LED lighting. I hope its as good as it sounds.
    14 Jan 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Hi WTB,
    I didn't see any discussion of the construction costs versus conventional construction costs and how long the ROI would be.
    Nice thing about this is that it would be a continual savings once paid for. Hmm, maybe a hub for those cloudy days?
    14 Jan 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • WTB - the link between the two is tenuous at best, but I believe ZBB is working with PNC financial on a demonstration site. The financial institution was not identified by ZBB, but there is only one financial institution, PNC, that the Emerge Alliance has listed with a demonstration site.


    ZBB has been shooting for the commercial building space. At this point, PNC does not appear to be using storage for the new site you linked to. However, it could represent a cookie-cutter recurring revenue if their demonstration site turns out well and PNC builds branches according to the model.



    (slide 43)
    14 Jan 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • 13:05:43 7500 sold at .3715
    13:06:26 100 sold at .3701


    who would buy 100 shares only???MM trying to hold the price down???


    bid - 30,700 @ .37,2,500 @ .365, 10000 @ .36


    ask - 5000 @.372, 2500 @ .3745 and 10,000 @ .375
    14 Jan 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Snow: As O.R. reminded the other day, I suspect it's an MM "fishing" to trigger fearful selling (triggering stop-loss orders?) so a buy order can be filled or covering buys can be done.


    14 Jan 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    Am I seeing things or are you seeing larger bid orders at or over the $.37 mark?
    14 Jan 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • I wasn't able to catch all the bids, but I saw the executions. Just had 40K go @ $0.3701. ATDF is lurking just under the top w/32K bid @ $0.37 ATM.


    Looking back through time and sales panel, I don't see a 40K bid though. I saw several 20K at various prices and a 30.7K @ $0.37.


    14 Jan 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks,
    just another day with a little added interest from buyers and very few sellers.
    14 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • FAA calls Boeing 787 Dreamliner safe to fly

    14 Jan 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    The link seems to be misdirecting me.
    14 Jan 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Hmm, Worked the first time I tried it and now it doesn't. Oh well,try this.


    FAA calls Boeing 787 Dreamliner safe, begins comprehensive review

    14 Jan 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting: nobody wants to let go of shares at .37...
    14 Jan 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • I was impressed that heavy selling late Friday couldn't push AXPW below .365!
    14 Jan 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tight trading range on above average volume.... I wonder what that means....
    14 Jan 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • O.R. Based on the buy:sell of 1:46:1, it looks like buyers and profit-takers are pretty well balanced. So right now we're waiting to see if the buyers or sellers get exhausted first.


    Since $0.37 seems to be the support area, possibly confirming it was formerly resistance, there's an excellent chance that we hold here a dew days as one side or the other at this price level is exhausted.


    Then we do another move one way or the other.


    Start of that tired old word "consolidation" after a pretty good run up from 1/2 VWAP of $0.2955 to where we are now.


    14 Jan 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Cool to see 4 MMs bidding at or just above 37 cents late in the day, including UBS' 135k bid they placed w/ 4 minutes left. We've had a nice run and yet the stk still goes up.
    14 Jan 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Me thinks many holders and buyers expect more positive news shortly. Certainly hope it is not disappointing when it arrives.
    14 Jan 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • 15:41:58 5,000@ .371
    15:52:04 3,000@ .3705
    15:59:23 7,000 @ 3708


    Several minutes before closing, a new bid of 135,000 @ .37 came in and there was no taker. Good news???


    bids - UBSS 135,000 @.37; ATDF 8,000 @ .37, PERT 4,725 @ .37
    offers - Nite 2,500 @ .3714, UBSS 40,000 @.3989 ( this offer was there all day), EGRO 2,500 @.4, TEJS 2,500 @.4, ETRF 2,500@ .5
    14 Jan 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Snow: If that UBSS bid is still around tomorrow, there's an excellent chance it makes a "floor" for the day for us.


    I'm thinking that a good portion of profit-takers at this level were used up today (maybe most of the "sells" and some of the "buys", 406182 and 278676 respectively).


    If some of the buying was off the news, one more day similar to this on further reducing volume, wouldn't be uncommon.


    After that, there could be some buyers, smaller in number(?), that follow a policy of waiting a few days before buying in hopes of catching a pullback. These would likely be matched by a smaller number(?) of profit-takers that figure the run is over and exit some or all of their position.


    14 Jan 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • HTL
    Thanks for your input. I am new to this blood spot, but my sixth sense tells me that we do not have big sellers like last year.
    14 Jan 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Snow: and I have metrics, that if I interpret their meaning correctly (they are experimental), that suggest the same in my instablog.


    That "Dly sht % or sells" thingy had a pattern of behavior leading into the (apparent) arrival of the "big uglies", as JP termed them, and their exodus that seems to support the fact they are no longer with us, may they R.I.P. :-))


    14 Jan 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Snow: I picked up the 3k @.3705 and the 7k @ .3708


    My intent was a fill for 10k @ .3705... but had to move my limit up to .3708 to fill the last 7k (of the original 10k) in the last minute of trading @ 15:59:23 EST.


    Was unable to get any fills @ .3700... take that to mean what you will...
    14 Jan 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • JP


    Thank you for your answers on Aussie competitor and Exide initiative


    Also for your comments on Robert Appel
    14 Jan 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • I had to spend a couple days thinking before writing that response since I know Robert well and understand where he's coming from. I like and respect Robert, although I don't always agree with him and that can be a tough thing to express in writing.


    In the beginning, everybody assumed that Axion would start out selling to third and fourth tier customers and spend a decade or more improving the PbC to a point where a first tier customer would give it a serious look. That plan changed dramatically in the summer of 2009 when Axion did a poster presentation at the AABC and the automakers began making pilgrimages to New Castle.


    Axion suddenly found itself in the position of a talented high-school pitcher getting approached by the Yankees. Management had to choose between following its original plan and *maybe getting a shot at the big leagues someday* or abandoning its original plan and going directly to training camp with BMW.


    The talented high school pitcher who sticks to his own plan gets lots of headline opportunities as he plays college ball and works his way through the farm leagues. The player who goes straight to training camp remains unknown, but he has a much better chance at taking the mound on a Spring afternoon.


    From the perspective of a newsletter publisher like Appel the original plan would have shown a steadier growth path and a large number and variety of modest announcements built on each other. The path Axion is on now won't have any modest announcements. Instead all they can talk about is baseball training camp with BMW, football training camp with NS, basketball training camp with an undisclosed team and soccer tryouts with some of the best.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Without knowing all the background behind Appel's comments, they brought to my mind the old "Hell hath no fury like a lover spurned" (or investor burned). Sometimes a short-term disappointment in an investment can poison the well and leave the disappointed investor on the sidellines when the big move finally arrives. That's happened to me more than once. In any case, his comments hardly qualify as astute and well-informed about Axion in its current situation.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • John, the high-school pitcher who skips college to go through the Yankee's farm system clearly forfeits significant opporunities to pursue a much riskier path. Does that analogy really hold up for a company that grabs for the brass ring while continuing to pursue other opportunities? Did Axion really give up opportunities in other markets in choosing to pursue the market in which the unique attributes of its battery provide the greatest competitive advantage? Appel cites the hub market as the one Axion should have pursued, but to my mind that is the market in which Axion has the least competitive advantage and the least opportunity to hit a home run.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • I wasn't so much talking about product risk management as stock PR management. The kid that plays JC and University ball before hitting the farm circuit has hometown press every week and lots of opportunities to talk trash about how good he is. The BMW and NS farm teams, in comparison, impose a strict code of silence and do everything behind an impenetrable information curtain. It's tough to tell a newsletter story about a company that's forced to operate in stealth mode. I've been able to do it on SA as part of a broader focus on the storage sector, but most of my work would be worthless in the context of an investment newsletter.


    Everybody assumes that stationary is an easy market where utilities are falling all over themselves and willing to pay any price. In reality, stationary is the toughest market around because utilities don't understand their needs and economic opportunities and they want to see five to ten years of reliability data.


    The markets that have the greatest value to the end user and the shortest validation timelines are the ones Axion's been focusing on like micro-hybrids, rail, trucking and behind the meter stationary, where the users at least understand what they need.
    14 Jan 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Bloomberg Video
    Lentz Says Hybrids Toyota Best Growth Opportunity
    At 3 min in he starts talking about Hybrids and EVs.
    Q Are battery powered cars dead?
    A. approximately Not dead, niches will work until the battery gets a lot better.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting that start/stop was not mentioned. Also interesting to hear U.S. employee count of 36,000, 70% U.S. content.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • I paid more today for another block than I would have had to, but I was not able to be near my computer for a bit so I put in a buy with a limit price of .38. I haven't looked yet to see what the actuals were but I know it was a bit less. I just figure that in a couple years I won't miss that extra penny I paid for this bunch.
    14 Jan 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Follow up on the Beijing pollution post.


    Beijing Orders Official Cars Off Roads to Curb Pollution

    14 Jan 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • I thought the most interesting stats were that coal fired electrical generation was 20% of the pollution and cars were 6% of the problem.


    From a personal story, I had to throw my 30 day contacts out after 10 days in Bejing. My eyes hurt so bad I couldn't wear them another second.


    I keep harping back on earlier JPs comments that the 6 Billion people in the world that need stuff, are not going to go green and quit wanting stuff. No matter what the developed world population wants or cares about. Coal will be king for a while in China.
    14 Jan 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Long CCJ. Nuclear is the only thing that can come close to meeting their energy needs by volume.


    14 Jan 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • 1/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 684858, AvTrSz: 4963
    Min. Pr: 0.3650, Max Pr: 0.3775, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3710
    # Buys, Shares: 97 406182, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3723
    # Sells, Shares: 41 278676, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3691
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.46:1 (59.3% “buys”), DlyShts 78000 (11.39%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.99%


    Pretty good day. There were only a few negatives, IMO, one of which is that we did have some trades, with volume, below $0.37. 82,476 shares, 12.04% of day's volume, traded $0.3650-$0.3690 with a VWAP of $0.3665. Not bad but it was a noticeable portion of the volume and was in the lower part of the range. 524,882 shares, 76.64% of volume, traded $0.3700-$0.3749 with a VWAP of $0.3709, again in the lower range. Finally, 77,500 shares, 11.32%, traded $0.3750-$0.3775 with a VWAP of $0.3762, in the higher range.


    Another negative is that we made a lower high. But considered in light of the nice run since 1/2 and the two recent pops, this is not too distressing. We are doing what should be done – starting into a short-term pause or consolidation. Since we had really decent volume, ~59% over yesterday's 25-day average, on an up day, I don't see this as suggesting any big downward pressure yet.


    Read the following keeping in mind that we are coming of some positive PR. The immediate large effects of this tend to dissipate over a three or four day period. We then start looking for longer-term sustainability of the sentiment in terms of less radical indications.


    The MACD that Drich brought to our attention continues to improve: +0.018 and +0.011 for the signal and average lines and the histogram keeps improving, now at +0.008. I wouldn't be surprised to see the histogram exceed the recent top seen around the first week in December.


    This is our fifth day trading completely ABOVE the 200-day SMA, currently at $0.3288. The 200-day should continue to decline, but at a reduced rate since we have moved into a higher price range. The 50-day SMA, $0.2878, has begun to go parabolic and will accelerate unless we have a big price drop. The 10-day SMA will cross above the 200-day tomorrow. The 20-day is only a few days behind unless price weakens substantially.


    We've started “pushing” my experimental upper Bollinger again and are also pushing the standard 20-day. The upper and lower are diverging, suggesting the possibility of higher volatility. On my experimental ones, a move back to mid-point would put us in the $0.30xx range. Considering context, I think the lower will start to turn up first, suggesting some price higher for the mid-point if a re-trace begins.


    I'm of a mind that the 200-day SMA will likely provide some support if we do re-trace. This would also be supported by a short-term (low of 1/2 through high of 1/11) “reversion to the mean” to ~$0.3275.


    As with yesterday, all the oscillators that have an overbought area are in that area. Normally folks start being concerned this suggests a pullback is likely soon. But looking at thing in total, I think this is one of those cases where it can stay in this state for some time. Maybe some readings and reasoning will clarify why I think this is possible.


    First, in the RSI we have a big positive divergence. Last time we were around this price range, while in the bottom of the cup formed Feb. through Mar. of last year, RSI was down in the 30 range. We are now at 86.23. This is right up there with the maximum reading of 89.43 on 1/11/12 when price was $0.47-$0.58 and running up to a high of $0.64 on 1/26 and 1/27/12. Even with today's price and volume action, momentum is still at ~1.22, slightly weaker than yesterday's ~1.31. Considering the volume difference, not yet a big concern. One I really like is that ADX is above 30 at 36. This is supposedly an indication of strong and continued bullish sentiment and is supported by the fact that DI- is now down to 5 while DI+ is at 41, quite a bullish reading. Leaving the other oscillators behind ...


    After bumping off the rising trading channel's resistance on 1/7 and 1/8, we broke above it on 1/11 when it read, AFAICT, ~$0.355. We traded completely above it again today on good volume – a supposed confirmation that we had a “break out”. We could still end up back in it if we trade sideways for a while, but I expect it will act as support, a traditional role-reversal that accompanies a confirmed break past a trend line.


    On my experimental charts, average trade size continues choppy, today being around the low side of average retail, I think, and below it averages. Buy:sell is acting normally, coming off a “peak” and moving back towards a more normal ratio. The buy percentage averages are still rising. As seen so many times, daily short sales percentage spike are followed by trends lower. Considering recent trading volume and short volumes and percentages, looks completely normal and I'm not concerned with it's action right now.


    My original inflection point calculations – the “flaky” one – suggests that upward pressure has abated. It's not suggesting down movement yet – just a weakening in the upward pressure. My newer ones, especially the top one on the three-part chart, agrees with the “flake”. But the bottom on on that three-part chart, suggests more upside is coming. By way of explanation, they are attempts to incorporate price-sensitivity two different ways. It'll be instructive to see which ends up being “better” this time.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    14 Jan 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Is anyone else surprised not to have had a Rosewater "win" yet, given the fact that the UL certification is complete and the Holidays have passed? Tuesdays are said to be the BEST days for PR....
    14 Jan 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Tony,
    Interesting question. Having met Pic I can only say this. He is a driven fellow that is always looking forward. Your question is whether he had a pre UL cetification announcement ready. I guess I am a little surprised but not underwhelmed. He plays it straight. He says it straight. I am waiting for an announcement. It will be the truth no matter what it is. But, unless the entire home mini-cube idea is a bust I suspect that the announcement will be soon. After all, he has spoken at every important Axion event in the last year.
    14 Jan 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • "He plays it straight. He says it straight. I am waiting for an announcement."


    Thee and me disagree. I haven't met the man, but have read his PR releases clearly implying UL certification of the HUB last July/August.
    What I haven't seen is any evidence of PbC sales attributable to Rosewater, Axion's presumed marketing partner. Performance needs to be seen. Perhaps it will surface tomorrow. Otherwise ....
    14 Jan 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • I respect what your sying.
    Show me the Money!


    I'm just saying that I would rather have a true announcement than a false one. Announcing that you have a product for the home market is one thing. Announcing sales is a different matter.


    I expect the true real numbers soon from Pic.


    If not. Then I'm worried. But if they announce that the residential market, which totally depends on pure cycle output, is very small then I'm not dissapointed.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Johnson Controls, Inc., the world's leading supplier of automotive batteries, is providing its advanced Absorbent
    Glass Mat (AGM) battery technology to power Ford Motor Company's 2013 Fusion Auto Start-Stop vehicle.


    AGM batteries are a proven advanced energy storage solution for Start-Stop vehicles in Europe, where Johnson Controls has manufactured more than 18 million since 2001 and now produces more than 4.5 million annually. According to recent consumer research commissioned by Johnson Controls, 90 percent of the Start-Stop vehicle owners in Europe say they are very satisfied with the technology and are likely to purchase such a vehicle again.


    "AGM technology is ideal for Start-Stop applications because it is better equipped than traditional batteries to support electrical loads while the engine is off, and power deep cycling associated with frequent starts and stops," said Ray Shemanski, vice president and general manager of the Original Equipment Group for Johnson Controls Power Solutions. "AGM batteries help our customers improve fuel efficiency and environmental performance while
    consumers see immediate economic benefits."


    AGM batteries used in a Start-Stop system help reduce fuel consumption as the engine shuts off when the vehicle comes to a stop in traffic or at a red light. The battery restarts the engine when the driver's foot releases the brake pedal or engages the clutch.


    According to the company's research, 97 percent of U.S. consumers say they are ready for Start-Stop vehicles, which are rapidly becoming an industry staple in Europe. Ford is one of the first automakers to offer it in this country.
    14 Jan 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • For the lowest level of micro-hybrid with idle stop/start only, they'll probably get away with AGM.


    Demand more of the battery with a higher level of hybridization and its 'come to papa!' for the PbC.


    14 Jan 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder press release. Everything in it is true, yet it leaves out the facts that we all know to be true about the life of an AGM battery in a start-stop system.
    14 Jan 2013, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • >LabTech ... Remember, AGM is the best available technology. Remember, also, that no one knows such a thing as the Axion PbC exists. No automotive OEM has stood and said "We have a solution" that includes an Axion PbC. That is the truth regardless of what we "know". The interesting thing is what the customer will soon know and whether he/she shall be willing to suffer their fate in silence.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • Sometimes I wonder if all they really care about is the EPA sticker and not how the system performs in years 2-5. Heck, I know many BMW drivers actually turn-off their SS feature.


    Hopefully this gaming the system doesn't preclude Axion from getting their fair share of the SS market.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • Ford's got lots of lawyers - they can afford the (likely) lawsuits resulting as the litigious American consumer realizes they've been promised "gains that will not sustain".




    15 Jan 2013, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • The calculus of the day is pretty simple. Most owners notice that their stop-start systems aren't turning off the engine as frequently, but they tend to dismiss the deterioration as a minor issue because it doesn't impact driving performance. The car still starts in the morning and it still gets them to work, but it burns a little more gas to do so. When they weigh the modest fuel economy loss against the aggravation of taking the car to the shop for repairs, the game isn't worth the candle.


    Given a choice between paying a $1,000 or $2,000 premium to put batteries that can do the job in ten cars or paying a $250 warranty cost when one out of ten owners actually complains, it's cheaper to pay the warranty claims. Owner attitudes are not likely to change until stop-start functionality becomes a check-box on the annual inspection form. When cars start failing inspections, the drivers will care very much.


    I expect the regulatory regime to follow every other pollution control technology. The first step is to simply the technology installed in a majority of new vehicles. Once that goal is achieved you can start increasing performance surveillance over time.
    15 Jan 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Saw a quote recently: "An idea that's bold is worthless 'til sold." I don't fully subscribe to that idea, but it is a major part of the explanation for AXPW's market travails of the past year.
    15 Jan 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Musta' been a double blind study. ;))


    No really, How many people have the capability to access this feature and give a yeah or nay? Heck, 75% of the population just barely manages on/off and forward/reverse. OK, OK it's Europe so the percentage of people that are better than that is a little higher than the US.


    And 90% isn't all that great with an interested party posing the question and perhaps wording it for a positive response.
    15 Jan 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • I have yet to see any evidence of Rosewater originated sales -- lots of talk, no production. Perhaps tomorrow is the day.
    14 Jan 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • It is interesting isn't it D-Inv? Publicity but no sales announcement.
    Again, having met Pic, I find the lateness irritating but not demonstrably bad. He is the kind of person I expect to announce something true and positive. I don't expect fluff where substance is wanting.
    The fact is that if they sold 1,000 houses the mini Hub it would only mean the same as 10 locomotives. Its the other projects Rosewater is involved with that will make the big difference.
    14 Jan 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Remember there are subcontractors involved, e.g. Indy Power Systems. Would they sell the "demonstrator" or is that serving other purposes? Also, given the company's frugal nature, how many of them should we have expected to have been pre-built before UL certification? Any?


    Maybe more if the NSC delivery had completed earlier and funds become available?


    Might they have wanted the quarter end financials to look better than they would have with a lot of funds sunk in "inventory?"


    It's also possible that negotiations for AXPW farming out the manufacturing (right from the beginning) hit a snag, or there was some communication or quality issues in the first build. If by some chance they were also strategic partner negotiations involved, well that could complicate things even more.


    It's also possible there was some small change required for UL certification in between the appearance in Indianapolis (or the building of the unit that appeared there) and now. Something caused that delay ...


    We heard that Joe P. was going to personally supervise the initial installation(s). Maybe customer 1 had a scheduling conflict!


    In summary, lots of hopefully little things could have happened. "Stuff happens."


    Still, after Rosewater "congratulating" us in late November on the ePower work, it's a little surprising they didn't also "congratulate" us on the UL certification once we made the announcement.
    14 Jan 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • "It's also possible that negotiations for AXPW farming out the manufacturing (right from the beginning) hit a snag, or there was some communication or quality issues in the first build. If by some chance they were also strategic partner negotiations involved, well that could complicate things even more.


    It's also possible there was some small change required for UL certification in between the appearance in Indianapolis (or the building of the unit that appeared there) and now. Something caused that delay ..."


    Thanks for the reminder on possible change to meet UL cert. That could delay production and delivery. But, TG's Nov. CC statement that HUBs would be certified AND shipped in 2012 seem to rule out possible negotiation delays.
    15 Jan 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Did not mean to imply anything disparaging about anyone! Just thinking that Cedia was four months ago, and UL is a done deal....and in my opinion news of one house "sold" may well have the impact of a thousand, right about now!
    14 Jan 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • We are not in disagreement Tony,
    I simply suspect that a full announcement of what is happening will occur as opposed to a "one hose deal".
    14 Jan 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • UBSS just came in with their $0.37 x 135K bid. So that should be today's floor, figuring that most taking profits below at or below that level *may* have done so.


    Just as when they had a big ask recently and had to lower it, I'm guessing that if the sellers don't show up in force, the UBSS bid will eventually be bumped up a little because a bid of that size s/b reflecting a bullish attitude and multiples of 1/10th of a penny will not be a show stopper for that buyer.


    On the sell side, they show $0.3989 (I like their thinking - above my next resistance) by 40K.


    EDIT; NITE s on the ask with standard 2.5K @ $0.3714. We don't know how much is behind that 2.5K, so there could be some weakness there. We have to assume that TEJS, ATDF, maybe CDEL will be crowding into both sides. Be interesting to see if we just trade a narrow range, s/b normal, or break one way or the other.
    15 Jan 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • UBSS bid withdrawn leaving bid/ask best TEJS $0.3653 x 2.5K/tEJS & NITE each $0.40 x 2.5K.


    I'll be expecting UBSS back in at a better bid somewhere during the day. I'm wondering if the buyer is the one that sold the big blk we saw on the ask side previously.


    15 Jan 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • ZBB ships EnerSystem to Lotte Chemical (formerly known and Honam)

    15 Jan 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Ford thinks Lithium ion is more durable than NiMH:
    "Ford engineers now say their decision to use lithium-ion was based on accelerated lab tests showing lithium-ion would actually be more durable than nickel-metal hydride over a long lifetime."

    15 Jan 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • "Ford began rolling out several of its lithium-ion-equipped hybrids late in 2012. The company's engineers say the new breed of batteries will offer an improvement over nickel-metal hydride in a number of ways, including size, weight, fuel efficiency, and life performance."


    I noticed that they don't mention safety or cost in that list.
    15 Jan 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, I'm sure Ford didn't take cost or safety into account when using these cells in thousands of vehicles.
    16 Jan 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Nissan cuts LEAF base model price by $6,400

    15 Jan 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • That's ok, they'll make it up on volume.


    15 Jan 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
    15 Jan 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • "This will create a tipping point for our company"


    Keep it up and you will tip right over.
    15 Jan 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • lol
    15 Jan 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Nissan CEO: LEAF Sales to Rise 20% in 2013 With Launch of Sub-$29,000 Version


    9,819 sold in 2012 + 20% additional sales.
    10,737 expected to be sold.


    The Smyrna has the capacity to make 150,000 Leafs and 200,000 lithium-ion battery packs yearly


    A bit of a mismatch.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Dang Should be 11,737 expected to be sold.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • "Nissan cuts LEAF base model price by $6,400"
    The real bargain is the Lease at $199 a month. For 3 years.
    To buy at $28,000 is about $500 monthly for 60 months.


    $200 a month x 36 months = $7,200. assuming 50% depreciation from a $30,000 = $15,000 This lease is a loss of $7,800.
    BTW If you think that's too much depreciation, they are estimating 80% depreciation over 5 years. (Below)



    <"Dealers say that the low-rate leases have brought in customers who wouldn’t have considered purchasing a Leaf, and that since the lease deals began, very few of the cars are actually being sold.">


    Yeah isn't that a surprise


    <“As government budgets get more stressed, some of the tax credits for things like this are going to go away,” he said. “Right now, it’s mostly affluent people buying EVs. At some point, people are going to say, ‘Do I feel good about subsidizing my neighbor’s purchase of an electric vehicle?’ ”>


    No kidding?


    <Industry experts are also concerned about what will happen to the Leafs that customers turn back in when their low-rate leases expire.
    Dealers say those customers will have the option to buy their cars when the lease period ends, but the residual value probably would be too high to make such a purchase attractive. The dealers could buy the off-lease vehicles, too, but aren’t likely to do that because of the high prices, said Tidwell of the Murfreesboro dealership.
    Nerad said the most likely scenario will be “a glut of off-lease Leafs being sold at the auto auctions at bargain prices.”
    Current projections are that a 5-year-old Leaf will be worth just 20 percent of its original sticker price, he said. No estimates were available on the expected value of a Leaf at the end of a three-year lease.
    Nissan isn’t worried, though, said Jones, the marketing chief.
    “We’re very bullish on what will happen with off-lease vehicles,” he said.>


    Yea....well...Good Luck with that.
    It looks like Nissan will end up with abound $20k from the life of these vehicles. (Lease then sale) I don't know if the 2013s will be included in this Lease deal.
    Clearly It helped the 2012 sales look better and it lowered the inventory of 2012 and possibly the 2011s still around.


    From Consumers Reports.
    < Want to buy a used electric car, cheap?
    Jan 14, 2013 2:30 PM
    With no staff or friends stepping up to buy our early Nissan Leaf, we began asking dealers for bids on it last week. The best offer we received from a local dealer was $16,500. When we bought our high trim-level Leaf SL with its optional DC "fast-charge" port in California in April 2011, we paid $35,998, representing a small markup over the $35,430 sticker. It's not that unusual for us to pay additional dealer markup to buy early examples of newsworthy cars so that we can let readers know how they perform while they're still of interest in the marketplace. Such is the price of being early adopters.
    So our 20-month-old Leaf has lost almost 60 percent of what we paid for it, which no amount of savings on fuel and maintenance can make up for. (And on top of that, we paid to have it shipped to our test track in Connecticut, since it was only sold in California when we bought it. We couldn't drive it here!) That threatens to blow our budget of approximately $700,000 we spend on test cars every year.>



    <With our Volt plug-in hybrid, the picture is not so clear. We bought our Volt on Dec. 20, 2010. Our car, with heated leather seats, a backup camera, and 17-inch aluminum wheels (and a navigation system, which was standard at the time), stickered for $43,700. We paid an extra $5,325 dealer markup for a grand total of $49,025. Now, two years later, another dealer is offering us $23,000.
    Factoring out the tax credit and the dealer markup, however, the Volt's depreciation hits 36.5 percent over our full two years of ownership. That puts it right about average among all two-year-old used cars. This reflects the wider market for the Volt, and its lower-than-average running costs, as well as the additional risk of someday having to replace its batteries, which are about 60 percent the size of the Leaf's.
    In both cases, online buyers guides value the cars a little higher, though not so much that their depreciation doesn't stand out. >
    16 Jan 2013, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks froggey77!
    16 Jan 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Someone's stop loss must have just been triggered. over 100,000 shares sold for .35x
    15 Jan 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Jveal, Hummm. Not twice though.


    Maybe one of the .35 cent guys looking to break even?
    15 Jan 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Market sell order for approx. 150K shares?
    15 Jan 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Report: Solar storage market to reach $2 billion by 2018


    " Lead-acid batteries will continue to dominate the market between now and 2018, accounting for some US$950 million in revenues.


    But the report also forecasts growing interest in lithium batteries, with sales of this technology expected to reach US$235 million by 2018.


    The report predicts Chinese solar storage firms are likely to have a strong focus on lithium batteries because China is a key source of lithium.


    But without government R&D subsidies, it says lithium will remain too expensive for widespread application."

    15 Jan 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • John, I think your leaving has put a little rift in the space sanity continuum. She was found babbling something about 999 launch. :)


    Stolen train crashes into building in Sweden

    15 Jan 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Since I lived in Switzerland and it's separated from Sweden by both Germany and the North Sea, I won't take credit or accept blame for delusional Swedish cleaning ladies. You have to admit, though, there is something fairly unique about taking a train for a joy ride.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
    15 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, What the heck was I thinkin'. I'm mixing up my Nordic countries with some of the others.


    Could you imagine being at the station and seeing that thing rolling out when it wasn't scheduled to leave. Ugh! Glad it wasn't far worse.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ford Atlas Concept Previews Next-Gen F-Series


    "Although no power train details were divulged, a new-generation of EcoBoost engine is promised, which will feature stop-start technology for improved fuel economy"

    15 Jan 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like


    scratching the surface on EV fueling costs...
    Of peripheral interest certainly, but interesting to watch public awareness evolve...
    15 Jan 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks 48, I appreciate that link.
    15 Jan 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481', thanks for the link.


    A "heads up" to readers of the article regarding something people are aware of but might not think about. Cost of electric power to consumers is not limited to the rate charged per kWh by the power provider. In my own case, power cost per kWh is roughly 2/3 of my power bill with the remainder consisting largely of per kWh taxes and user fees. Electricity costs me < $.11/kWh while average billed cost per kWh is > $.15.


    Prices per gal. for fossil fuels "at the pump" include State and federal taxes.
    15 Jan 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • JP article from March 2012 was just cited in a tweet from VC and energy nerd Matthew Nordan!


    The tweet in question:
    Met w/several start-ups betting on Li-ion battery packs @ $200/kWh price. They're $450 *cost* now. I'm pessimistic. See
    15 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Now we know! 200K @ $0.3626 just went off at 14:37:15.


    EDIT: Followed by another 75K in three trades: 2.5K $0.3625 and, 22.5K $0.3605, 50K $0.3605.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • BTW, prior to that trade, VWAP was $0.3580 on volume of 398,641. Me thinks an MM had a buy order to satisfy. Buy at a VWAP of $0.3580 or less and sell at ~$0.362x. Profit plus fees from the exchange and the MM brokerage gets fees from the customer too.


    "Lucrative", no?


    15 Jan 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • What are you showing for UBSS bid/offer?


    I'm showing Bid 136k at .36 and 40K at .3989, but I'm not sure they're real since this morning before market open you said they had pulled their "offerings" and I didn't see them go on my platform.


    And BTW, what do we know?


    Those big trades were sells, right? (at the bid)


    That's the second big "sell" today ... not encouraging.


    Wonder if a few folks are getting discouraged over no news from ePower, NSC 999 movement, and Rosewater, or whether these were some of the feared "fast money" traders we thought we might have attracted recently.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, So what can we assume?


    We also saw 2 pretty healthy exits this am which we recovered from fairly well.
    15 Jan 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • I see the same on UBSS. The big trades were sells. The big bid came back at 14:08.


    EDIT: Here comes some more - back in a minute.
    15 Jan 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • 137K trade at .36 3:01:47,,,, UBSS now bid 15K at .35


    Volume 848K
    15 Jan 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • 174.4K more at a VWAP of $0.3600.


    15 Jan 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Assume? Nada! My first thoughts harken back to my reference yesterday that we've had a good run and I thought maybe we had exhausted the sellers at this price level. WRONG! Obviously.


    But this might be that exhaustion and it's involving a big buyer as well as a seller.


    Regardless, my recently acquired dry powder is slated for a buy at what I expect any re-trace would take us to - currently thinking ~$0.33.


    This may have short-circuited that though.


    EDIT: Sure enough, now 10K at $0.3625 trades - MM job done, "You may now resume your normal program (trading)".
    15 Jan 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • One more of those nasty trades arrived after 2 minutes 10K $0.3581. New numbers for the additional trades goes to 184.4K $0.3599.


    15 Jan 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL. Feel like we slipped and fell down a flight of stairs today. Thus, What was once the floor is now the ceiling. Argghh! I vote for it being one of the .35 USD guys that's either impatient or making adjustments for a hoped for lower offering future financing round. But who the heck knows.


    But hey, don't listen to me. Can't tell the difference between Sweden and Switzerland. ;))
    15 Jan 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Looking like an Evening Star to me:



    Good news if we hold 0.35.
    15 Jan 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Billa: Note the evening star should gap above the body of the prior candle. Bulkowski also show it this way.



    The prior close of $0.365 matches the low of that star, so it's apparently not one.


    Also, the candle following the star engulfs it.


    I don't really see a pattern I like for a good match on the candlesticks, although some "could be" matches.


    A Spinning top" single-candle pattern.


    16 Jan 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • HT:


    I thought your link was a Bukowski link:

    16 Jan 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Billa: LoL! You had to pick the "boring" one, huh? :-((


    16 Jan 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • This is totally OT, the last one I will post, and is for HT's eyes only:



    16 Jan 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Re China pollution


    I am told that the most significant opportunity for reducing the Worlds level of pollution is to convert Chinese coal consumption to natural gas


    Should provide some interesting NA opportunities in the years ahead. Question as always is in how many years
    15 Jan 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • They are building a lot of nuclear plants as well. This may create other issues because the Chinese have a tendencies to slap things up and cut corners which can be very hazardous with nukes.


    However, if they retire some coal plants when the nukes come online then that should improve matters.


    15 Jan 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    Perhaps you are of the idea that the world is attempting to cut it's coal use. This is not the case.
    China & India Are Building 4 New Coal Power Plants – Every Week


    Date: 14/11/12
    Peter Galuszka, The New York Times


    Global demand for coal is expected to grow to 8.9 billion tons by 2016 from 7.9 billion tons this year. China is expected to add about 160 new coal-fired plants to the 620 operating now, within four years. During that period, India will add more than 46 plants.


    To get the world off coal we need an improved energy source. This is where we need R&D funding.


    Someone on SA said 5 companies were expecting to have Cold fusion products by the end of 2013. Personally it sounded like Hopium talk to me. Here is I think a more reasonable view. Oct 2012.
    Cold Fusion gets a little more real


    Other possibilities
    LightBridge (LTBR)
    Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor LFTR
    Pixie Dust (PD) I'm not sure where we get this from but JP keeps talking about it, so I'm sure its around. Somewhere in Fremont CA. I think. :-) Rumor: there is a guide called Jrp3; accepts only hopium as payment. ;-))
    15 Jan 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, froggey. I'll admit that I had entertained the hope that increased nuclear could allow some of the coal to be decreased. But I never looked it up and see now that this is not the case.


    It is my understanding that coal remains the cheapest and so it's use will continue. Natural gas is next, then nuclear.


    I support nuclear as an investment for various reasons, only 1 of which is that I believe the waste CAN be handled safely and cleanly, which gives it a big leg up on coal and a smaller leg up on natural gas, despite cost inferiority.


    Anyway, thanks for the info.


    15 Jan 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry about this, but I haven't looked at the latest pollution EV stuff in a while. If your are not interested you can skip this post. (But blame it on Dimca and D. for bring it up.) :-)
    The big climate question: Will the world build 1,200 new coal plants?
    Posted by Brad Plumer on November 20, 2012 at 9:09 am


    <Many of these proposed new plants are in China and India, which account for 76 percent of proposed capacity. Turkey and Russia also have big plans. And a growing number of coal plants are being proposed for developing countries such as Cambodia, Guatemala and Uzbekistan, nations that are looking to cut-rate sources of energy to fuel economic growth.
    It’s still unclear how many of these proposed plants will actually get built. In the United States, for instance, plans for 36 new coal plants are now looking unlikely, thanks to new pollution rules and the availability of cheap natural gas. But in Europe and Japan, once-moribund coal plant proposals are being revived after nuclear reactors were shut down in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.>


    One thing which does not show up in raw numbers, is the efficiency of coal power plants. In the west they are about 35% efficient 32% in China with other countries averaging 28- 30%. General rule of thumb 2% increase in CO2 for 1 % decrease in efficiency.


    Unfortunately the really toxic stuff airborne Lead, Mercury, Arsenic, can be many of times higher.
    Global and China's total of CO2 in million tonnes


    1990 21 532.3.....2 402.0
    1995 22 124.5.....2 992.7
    2000 23 728.9.....3 091.4
    2005 27 688.1.....5 165.1


    2008 29 937.2.....6 602.7
    2009 29 627.8.....7 197.2
    2010 31 102.3.....7 711.4
    1990-2010 44.4%..... 221.0% increase inCO2
    Global carbon-dioxide emissions increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to record high from fossil-fuel combustion of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011, according to preliminary estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This represents an increase of 1.0 Gt on 2010, or 3.2%. Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%).7


    This is the kind of thing you see.
    China's Wind-Power Capacity Linked to Grid Up 87%, Xinhua Says

    Total Electricity generated in China.
    Hard coal..... 2,711,663gWh for 76%
    Wind..................... for 0.42%
    (2008 numbers.)
    Wind has big % increases of small numbers.


    The following link does not work so you have to copy and paste the title It came up as the second listing.
    It only looked at CO2 caused by charging a Nissan Leaf in various regions (Grids) in Chins
    They used the Leaf as the EV but 2 Chinese cars Tiilda automatic 7.3L/100km and manual 6.5 L/100km for comparison. In most grids the Leaf won, but for comparison using:
    gmCO2e/km (Grams CO2 equivalent per kilometer driven)


    162.5 was the lowest
    273.5 was the highest
    213.1 was average.
    automatic 211.
    manual 188.7
    for comparison
    Prius.....104 grCO2/km);
    Corolla..157 grCO2/km
    Yaris......119 grCO2/km
    The worst of which come in better than the Leaf's best.

    If you look at figure 4 you will find that SO emissions are several times that of ICE.
    Figure 5 looks at the removal of NOx emissions
    Where they are today is up at the top.
    Mercury has a rough estimate of 0.01 mg for every EV kilometer driven.


    Possibly you have heard of this.


    <Mercury in Great Lakes wildlife rises Updated: October 11, 2011
    Mercury emitted from American smokestacks has been declining for years. But contamination levels in loons, walleyes and some other species have actually increased in the past decade, according to the largest report yet on mercury in the Great Lakes region.
    The report, released Tuesday by the Great Lakes Commission, was based on 35 research studies and samples from tens of thousands of fish, birds and other animals. It concludes that the forests, lakes and wetlands that characterize the Great Lakes make the region particularly sensitive to mercury pollution.
    Even more important, the authors conclude, the nature and extent of the region's mercury problem is more severe than was previously known -- and, for reasons that are not understood, appears to be getting worse for some species.
    The report found that mercury levels are higher in fish in inland lakes than those in the big lakes. That was true of walleye from northern Minnesota and other heavily forested areas with wetlands.
    Six of the 15 most commonly eaten fish had mercury levels higher than the EPA recommends for human consumption. And many species, including loons, showed sensitivities to mercury at much lower concentrations than had been known.>


    So Mercury rising despite the US reducing it's mercury/pollution?
    What's happening?


    14% of Mercury in Great Lakes Comes from China


    Pollution is what turned me against EVs
    16 Jan 2013, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like someone wants to buy some more cheaply tomorrow - AH trade of 300 @ $0.355, just above the day's low of $0.347, will show up in the morning as last trade and set a range around which we should see bid/ask dance.


    This puts pps back inside my rising trading channel whose resistance, AFAICT, is @ ~$0.356. Since yesterday "confirmed" a "break out", there may have been stop-losses set, as JVeal suggested, by folks that didn't want to risk a move back into the channel. I'm thinking that established the momentum downward and others followed suit.


    Apparently, this allowed the very large order later to be filled.


    Taking the bunch that *looks* like they might be related to the 200K order, and including that one, 459.4K traded at a VWAP of $0.3612. There's some more that might be related, but there were intervening higher prices and time so I'm unsure. Anyway, that's 48.7% of the total volume today. If some of the orders I didn't include are part of that big bunch, it's even higher.


    15 Jan 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • What ever happened to Manatauk Hill?
    15 Jan 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • There's no way to tell whether Manatuck Hill has sold its shares. Based on the FINRA short data I believe they have sold, but we'll never know for sure.
    15 Jan 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • know who my leading candidate is as to who is doing the current selling. IIRC, sometime last year they still had around 8 million shares.
    15 Jan 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • I'm looking forward to the next Schedule 13-HR, which is due in less than 30 days.
    15 Jan 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Manana.


    NAATBatt 2013 Annual Members Meeting and Symposium:


    Note the first speaker mentioned is a board member from the Norwegian ship builder working on the battery powered ferry.


    Or is it fairy Metro?


    ZBB also has a speaking role.


    Anyway, The full lineup is listed for those interested. Any of you Texan's goin' ?

    15 Jan 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like all the power hitters are there. I think if I were a battery company (AXPW) I would be there too.
    ZBB seems to be moving ahead for now....lot's of news frequently mentioning them.
    15 Jan 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • When the car is coming in on fumes to the gas station you don't always get to stop in for a bite to eat - even if it seems like a worthwhile detour/expense. =)


    I'm thinking the travel budget will be fatter come March or April but right now I'd bet TG and the brass are only flying to meet those who can grease the wheels in the immediate future.
    15 Jan 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • A company in the storage business could spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and waste an incredible amount of management time going to.major and minor conferences around the world.


    The first tier conferences include AABC, ELBC, ESA, EESAT and perhaps the Asian Battery Conference. The rest are a couple rungs down the food chain. NATBatt is both second tier and lithium focused.


    I'm not entirely clear why ZBB would want to present there, but I wouldn't waste my time.
    15 Jan 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • "bet TG and the brass are only flying to meet those who can grease the wheels in the immediate future."


    Yeah, for way too many years to count. Nada to show for it. I am a show me the money guy.
    15 Jan 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, maybe it would have been better if I had posted the home page as well.


    From the program overview. (So the focus is not necessarily the battery this year.)


    "The 2013 NAATBatt Annual Members Meeting and Symposium is our third annual conference. This year's Symposium will focus on issues related to the battery management systems and various mechanisms for monitoring and controlling the operation of cells within a pack "

    15 Jan 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • ZBB seems willing and keen to attract or create PR wherever they can .... Which is a sound traditional strategy. Doesn't always have to be relevant to have the desired effect! Being long there as well as AXPW, I cant't complain seeing "news" on either of them!
    15 Jan 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • I may go long ZBB if they can hold the momentum. At least ZBB's CEO is "hob knobbing" with the elite. Valuable relationships have been developed at these meetings just being around the right people.
    15 Jan 2013, 08:42 PM Reply