Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (290)
Track new comments
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4156) | Send Message
     
    go go go
    27 Jan 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Springer gets double gold, since this was posted before I even posted a link to this APC in the previous concentrator.
    27 Jan 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Though I'd dearly love to bank the credit, it wasn't any real act of compiling on my part...yahoo actually provides that function and it's only really only a click...
    27 Jan 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1903) | Send Message
     
    Quit being so modest. You might as well be the lead archiver at the Library of Congress.
    27 Jan 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    Anybody who finds a way to make information more easily accessible is a hero in my book. Yahoo may have created a functionality, but you waded through the sewage long enough to make it useful for Axionistas.

     

    Double hat tip to 481086.
    27 Jan 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (795) | Send Message
     
    Hi 481086:

     

    Gracias, good work.-Carlos
    27 Jan 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    The love of my life was berating me and everything Axion earlier. Its her way of saying "I love you". I was so forthcoming about Dr. Ed joining us and how he had espoused that the ultrabattery might not be as good as advertised for S/S applications.
    Her response was " what difference does it make. They don't buy either battery for S/S.

     

    I had to think about that one. "They don't buy either battery for S/S".

     

    She is right ( she always is) but her conclusion is wrong.
    What matters to a stock is the future growth and earnings of that company. If the Ultrabattery doesn't work for that application then Axion's PbC can be a huge winner in that world.
    Now, we all know that automotive OEMs don't make decisions on the spur of the moment but rather by testing. Since we have been tested for years I suspect so have the others.
    My conclusion is that someday soon, if a real battery problem solution is wanted, then the PbC will be ordered.
    My bride is not the only naysayer on the block. But her innocent questioning of facts brought me to an even stronger conclusion that the PbC is the right battery for this application, for the least expensive price.
    27 Jan 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, you must be a student of Sydney Harris
    http://bit.ly/WHymVd
    (It's the cartoon on page 29)
    28 Jan 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Links lead to links ...

     

    Forbes: The Boeing 787: The Truth Finally Hits the Fan
    http://onforb.es/VeUaIq

     

    Be sure to read the story it's based on at the NY Times:
    January 25, 2013
    Japan’s Role in Making Batteries for Boeing
    By JAMES B. STEWART

     

    http://nyti.ms/Yy3Dik

     

    "A former Boeing executive confirmed this when we spoke this week. After asking not to be named because of the diplomatic fragility of the topic, he said: “Let me put it this way: we knew the Japanese market would be Boeing’s in return for our selecting these Japanese partners. It was a silent understanding, and there was nothing in writing.” He added that Boeing’s Japanese suppliers had received low-interest loans from the Japanese government repayable only out of future profits."

     

    If this plane is grounded a long time, perhaps the "calculus" will get changed.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7783) | Send Message
     
    In case it was missed in the last concentrator:

     

    http://bbc.in/VKJ2Tx

     

    Boeing battery not faulty.
    28 Jan 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    JRP3,
    Yes, but that might not be good news for Boeing, and they still might have to replace the system and the batteries in the end, depending on what they find.

     

    "Keith Hayward, head of research at the Royal Aeronautical Society, said that if the issue is no longer about replacing a faulty battery, it raised the prospect of Boeing having to do a major re-design.
    "I think people had their fingers crossed that it was a battery fault... it looks more systemic and serious to me. I suspect it could be difficult to identify the cause," he said.
    He added that aviation regulators will have to put the 787 through another airworthiness certification process, which itself could become a complicated and lengthy process depending on the final cause of the problem."
    28 Jan 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    A battery so finicky it requires complex systems to keep it from failing is a flawed battery: cooling systems and slow charging to keep it from bursting into flames, cooling systems in hot weather and warming systems in cold to keep it from losing capacity prematurely.

     

    Given a choice, simplicity always wins.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7783) | Send Message
     
    If that were true only flooded lead acid batteries would be in use. Let's say someone designed a system using PbC batteries, which we know require control systems. Let's say some component in that system failed and caused a fire. Does that mean the PbC is at fault?
    Extreme Power had a huge battery fire with lead acid batteries, claimed to have been started by faulty capacitors supplied by someone else. Are the batteries at fault?
    The fact is that lithium batteries are not that finicky, they just need to be operated within their parameters, just like any other battery.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    The first fires were blamed on somebody else's capacitors. The monster wind farm fire in Hawaii is all on the batteries which reportedly melted. I'm not entirely clear what Xtreme Power's battery chemistry is, but it's clearly not conventional lead acid.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I had some time tonight to explore a few old Axion conference call transcripts. Take some time. Read them from 2009 to the present.

     

    Its always been my belief that as an Axionista, I am to close to the situation. As a group we dissect and peruse every word uttered by or about Axion. As I look back and remember the four year sojourn, I am reminded how slow this timeline is for Axion. A company trying to show the world that they have a true disruptive technology ready to go for many applications. One year is a small space of time in business. It is a lifetime to some shareholders.

     

    Here is what was said recently.

     

    "In the early summer, we embarked on a series of meetings and conference calls with utilities and groups representing utilities. Our acceptance in this arena was in part sparked by the product credibility generated from the commissioning of our on-site power cube last December. In the third quarter, we began to ramp up our demand response participation with our strategic partners PJM and Viridity. Late in the quarter, we began to receive invitations to present our value propositions and PJM Network resolves to other utilities. One specific invitation we accepted from the south east utility conference where we presented on September 18. This conference was attended by representatives from 22 different utilities, our various interactions have generated request for proposal which are currently in mature development."

     

    That is from three months ago in November 2012. The slowest purchasers on the planet ( utilities) have expressed interest, which are in mature development, in the PbC.

     

    Now the future might be bleak, but you can't tell it by any press releases or official documents. You can tell that NS is moving forward. Utilities are moving forward.
    The stock price? Not so much forward. But as every long term investor knows:
    The future price is dependent upon future sales and profits.

     

    Just a thought.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Fururist,

     

    Thank you.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    "The slowest purchasers on the planet ( utilities) have expressed interest, which are in mature development, in the PbC."

     

    I think a careful listening to the cc recording, if not reading of the transcript, will lead one to conclude that "mature development" refers to bids responding to RFPs. IT DOES NOT refer to mature consider of the PbC by utilities imo.
    27 Jan 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2530) | Send Message
     
    From the 11/15/2012 PR:

     

    "We are making meaningful progress toward marketing Axion Cube systems, of various sizes, to commercial users in North America and on offshore island Republics. In some cases our products will be used to decrease dependence on fossil fuels by accepting, regulating and storing power from renewables such as wind and solar. Our PowerCube™ systems can also provide power quality and can store power for backup purposes, as is the case with the Residential Energy Storage Hub. And finally, our PowerCube can assist utilities and grid managers with their efforts in load leveling and frequency regulation. In the case of utilities, the major demonstration system is the Axion PowerCube that was integrated 12 months ago into the huge PJM system here at our manufacturing plant in New Castle. We believe that the announcement of the first confirmed projects, for these various Axion Cube applications, will be made over the next several months. The market is sizable from both a geographic and a financial perspective."

     

    Read those last two sentences again. We're about 2 1/2 months in. Hopefully, sumth'ns a coming soon. And that's just for the PC.
    27 Jan 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    My definition "mature development" and "next several months" was within three months. Now I'm thinking within six months. Difficult when we are always on the customer's schedule.
    28 Jan 2013, 05:00 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that, Futurist. A watched pot does eventually boil if there is a lithium-ion battery or other powerful heat source under it; it just seems to take forever when long-term investors are following every little bubble on the way to boiling.
    27 Jan 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    BY that measure I suggest we return to watching paint dry as a PbC battery is unlikely to ever replicate Lithium-ion standards for boiling water.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    Boeing 787 stuff:

     

    http://bit.ly/X5X4hU

     

    Some prescriptive hints........
    27 Jan 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    And more Boeing 787 stuff:

     

    "Transport ministry official Shigeru Takano said Monday the probe into battery-maker GS Yuasa was over for now as no evidence was found it was the source of the problem."

     

    http://fxn.ws/VhSTyk

     

    http://fxn.ws/YyyiME
    28 Jan 2013, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4156) | Send Message
     
    Is it possible we can set up a separate blog for this Boeing stuff. It just doesn't seem germane to the primary business model as pointed out by JP ages ago in this discussion. And, personally, as someone whose parents died in a plane crash, I'm really tired of it.
    28 Jan 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    Jon - I'm sorry for your loss of your parents in a plane crash. Not to be too insensitive, but I'm also sorry for many folks including those I know that lost loved ones in car crashes, train wrecks, etc.

     

    The Boeing 787 incident happens to revolve around the Li battery which is certainly germane to the battery industry and a possible competitor of PbC. Plus, discussing it is no more off-base than all the Tesla stuff and the rest of the "hybrid" community.

     

    Li battery fires, incidents and prognosis of the Li batteries future have been the talk in and around PbC discussion for several years, if not more.

     

    So, I disagree with your suggestion. But hey, it's not my blog.
    28 Jan 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    To me the Boeing 787 is about a germane as Telsa, neither of which I give a hoot about. I am with you Jon...
    28 Jan 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    Since I don't see aviation as a PbC market and don't see lithium-ion as a PbC competitor, I tend to agree that the Dreamliner problem is largely irrelevant to Axion. It does prove that at least one flavor of lithium-ion chemistry has serious safety issues, but it won't move Axion's market one way or another.
    28 Jan 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    Ok folks, then let's stop talking about Li, period. Even if, eventually, some Li folks decide to rid their applications of the Li safety risk and look to PbC.

     

    And we won't talk about Boeing even if they want the PbC, ever <:=)).

     

    Let's play ostrich.
    28 Jan 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1350) | Send Message
     
    NJB, the point is... I value Jon's participation more than I do news on the 787 saga. I also appreciate your participation. This is more about supporting Jon and not an attack on your post. I think we can do with less of the 787 stuff and be just fine...
    28 Jan 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4156) | Send Message
     
    All I suggested was that an instablog could be set up that was for this particular subject since there are a number of people still quite interested in it, and a number of others fatigued by it. HTL, JP, Futurist, and others have previously set up other Axion-related instablogs. It takes a few minutes. I meant no inconvenience nor ostrich-ing.

     

    My request was not directed at one particular person, but just on the most recent comment on the subject. I'd set up the instablog myself, but it would be the first Axion-related instablog I do not want to follow.

     

    I apologize for requesting too much if I have done so.
    28 Jan 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    Jon: IMO, you didn't request too much. Boeing's troubles are worth noting but, IMO, not a major concern of this forum. Only the Li-ion is of interest and then only as a potential competitor down the road in some areas.

     

    As long as we have a general sense of what's happening, via pertinent posts as *changing* conditions warrant regarding the potential competitor, I think the concentrator has done it's job. No need to belabor the minutia that will be going on for months on end.

     

    MHO only,
    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    1/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 85, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 473350, AvTrSz: 5569
    Min. Pr: 0.2960, Max Pr: 0.3220, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3097
    # Buys, Shares: 33 144250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3110
    # Sells, Shares: 52 329100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3092
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.28 (30.5% “buys”), DlyShts 27500 (5.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.36%

     

    On the traditional TA front, we saw the expected first signs of a “consolidation” with VWAP slightly below the mid-range of the Thursday spike down. However, volume hasn't yet started to drop, but neither has it moved up. This leaves me thinking in terms of “uncertainty” as to “what's next”.

     

    The low for the day was one trade of 2.5K and the next low, $0.2970, was two trades of 9.2K and 1K. All the other trades were >= $0.30 and, as can be seen in the VWAP, demonstrated good price support in spite of the “weak” buy:sell.

     

    Discounting the three trades below $0.30, price found support at the old rising trading channel support line. The trades below were likely just an “overshoot” as a few stops were triggered or a few folks pulled the trigger out of fear.

     

    Interestingly, the close was just above the potential new rising channel, ~$0.307(?), leaving it as possibly in play.

     

    With a second down day, the MFI oscillator has moved to oversold territory, but it's still lonely there. The other oscillators I follow continued to weaken, as one would expect, except the ADX (and related DI- and DI+) and the stochastic, which has started to curl up.

     

    Since volume stayed relatively flat and price seemed to have easily found support in the $0.30 and above area, we might see a quick reversal to the next leg up with the trading channel. With price below the mid-point of the “standard” 20-period Bollingers, but not pushing the lower bound, this seems more likely than not.

     

    Conversely, the price is “pushing” the lower bound for a second consecutive day. In the past this has portended lower price. With some oscillators showing positive transitions and the rising support of the older rising trading channel seeming to provide strong support I wouldn't be surprised to see price pull away (above) that lower bound quite quickly.

     

    Price-range breakdown:
    $0.2960-$0.2970 12700, 2.68%, VWAP $0.2968
    $0.3000-$0.3020 41800, 8.83%, VWAP $0.3006
    $0.3050-$0.3089 65850, 13.91%, VWAP $0.3063
    $0.3100-$0.3148 294600, 62.24%, VWAP $0.3107
    $0.3150-$0.3195 26100, 5.51%, VWAP $0.3161
    $0.3200-$0.3220 32300, 6.82%, VWAP $0.3201

     

    The trend was high in the morning, dip to lows as the day progressed, 10:30 – 1:03, and then recover to predominately at and above $0.31 from 11:45 onwards.

     

    On my experimental charts, trade size was in what I think is mid-range of retail, buy:sell weakened (but buyers stepped up and supported price regardless), daily short sales continued it halting typical move of up and down while making the usual short-term rise off of extreme lows, in percentage terms.

     

    My inflection point calculations have now began another “set up” towards indicating a rising price. I'll holler when it looks like the pattern will complete.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    CONFUSION CORRECTION: "Conversely, the price is “pushing” the lower bound for a second consecutive day. In the past this has portended lower price".

     

    was supposed to be "Conversely, the price is “pushing” the lower bound for a second consecutive day in my experimental 13-period Bollingers. In the past this has portended lower price".

     

    Apoplectic apologies to all.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Thanks agin for your reports.
    28 Jan 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: My pleasure sir!

     

    With all that others contribute here, I feel duty-bound to contribute what I can and hope that it's useful.

     

    My thanks go to all those folks that help us keep abreast of pertinent facts - as *investors* we can't live on TA alone.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Norfolk Southern Plans $2 Billion Investment In Support Of Freight Rail Service, Safety, And Sustainability

     

    http://yhoo.it/VL1Fqg
    28 Jan 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2530) | Send Message
     
    FP---thanks, but the article is just a PR on the 2013 Capx budget disclosed during their earnings conf call last week. No additional info disclosed today, best I can tell. I emailed NS' Director of IR last week after the conf call and asked if there is a breakdown of the locos 2013 Capx pie slice, or a bullet-point accompanying slide like there was for the 2012 Capx slide presentation. He emailed back and said no, but said their 10-K will be filed in a few weeks and it may have more Capx info in it.
    28 Jan 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    48 and Jakurtz - and indirectly Ed

     

    Thank you for the link provided

     

    Suggest all AXPW investors take the time to go through it

     

    Much appreciated
    28 Jan 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    For those interested, it appears another SeekingAlpha poster has taken an interest in posting on ZBB:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Jan 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    It looks like Quality Stocks is a paid PR firm, which means their articles won't make it to the main pages, but it does show that ZBB is working to improve its profile and that's always a good thing.
    28 Jan 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2562) | Send Message
     
    ZBB also has hired MDB capital to promote their story. I know this firm as I've followed many of their stocks up (often up 100%+ and then down 50-%75%). They are kind of famous (infamous?) in the small cap market - but I will say there usually is some sort of steep run while MDB is engaged. That could be because they are often paid in stock. =)

     

    Anyhow, I'm sure some Axionsistas wouldn't mind this kind of thing to help create price/volume movement for Axion.

     

    http://bit.ly/WqZjLH
    28 Jan 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (514) | Send Message
     
    I for one would not want to see Axion follow this course. So far the management seems to be very conservative and honest. I wouldn't change a thing....although it would be nice is occasionally something would happen on "Axion time".
    28 Jan 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2562) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't mine some PR since it seems there is plenty near term to crow about. I don't like pumps and faulty projections but I don't see how a PR firm that is on the investor's side could hurt. The danger in these things is when people buy in and don't know a PR firm is involved (i.e. new ZBB buyers who are attracted by recent volume and buy in near 50 cents). However, in Axion's case there is little chance we'd tumble much lower than current levels even after some promotion.
    28 Jan 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    The problem I've always seen with conventional PR is that it attracts the wrong kind of investor. If you start with the premise that somebody has to tell the story for every share that trades, then an investor like you who buys with a two or three year horizon is 1/12 the work of an investor who buys with a two or three month horizon.

     

    Companies that move a bunch of stock into the hot money crowd have to keep finding new PR agencies to take over the promotion when the old agencies run out of contacts. It can be a very vicious cycle. The best imaginable shareholder group a small company could ever have would be one where most holders are patient long term holders and short-term traders only hold a little stock.
    28 Jan 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2562) | Send Message
     
    Yeah it will be a fun case study to watch. I expect ZBB to break 50 cents and I'm curious if Axion will get to follow along some since the two have been correlated for awhile. The problem is the fast money is likely MDB capital and they likely hold 1%-5% of ZBB stock. Anyone who is following ZBB might want to note the first analyst on their last CC (SA has transcript) was the one who wrote the above linked research report. Might be eye opening to those who assume analysts are unbiased.
    28 Jan 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    Bazooka, IIRC, MDB has some disclosures at the end of their report stating that they take both long and short positions in stocks they cover.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    Re MDB: Here's an article that's really negative on them. And, unusual, some purported MDB employees jump into the comment stream.

     

    I don't know if the author's suppositions and conclusions hold water, but it also mentions ZBB - I almost posted it the other day, but decided it was of marginal interest.

     

    "Why Is Unipixel Falling?"

     

    Contrary to the title, the article is really about bashing MDB.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2562) | Send Message
     
    Yup saw that one too. MDB can be controversial for sure. One can look at the charts of other stocks they've covered to get a feel for how it goes. I'm sure ZBB did their DD but chose to go for the short term potential positives. I wouldn't be surprise to see them raise money on any pops. I also was in Unipixel but that stock might be frothy at this time.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4773) | Send Message
     
    My "2-3 year horizon" is now 3 years and appears to be going to 6 years !
    Let the PR come.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, last year, I sent the author of the ZBB report an email complimenting him on his research, letting him know of an inaccuracy and attempting to open a dialogue. I also sent MDB an email on 1/17/13 about the broken links. I didn't receive a response to either email.
    28 Jan 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    I received a response today.
    29 Jan 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    481's collection of comments by Dr. Buiel elsewhere is very, very helpful. Item two in the second entry (dated Jan 16) appears to reference a link ("These are graphs from my era ....") not embedded in the collection and Dr. Buiel's comment is apparently no longer available through the never-never-land message board. I would like to see the graph showing the discharge profile of of the PbC.

     

    Requests made to Axion for a copy of a conference presentation made by Dr. Buiel (made near the end of his tenure there) was ignored.
    28 Jan 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2242) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    The graphs referred to in the comment you mention can be found by looking at the the omy/strangerthings comment it responds to, where a veiled link is posted.

     

    the link leads to: http://bit.ly/rmBvjU

     

    Dr. B's response was:

     

    <<2. Compared to other technologies, Axion PbC battery may generally be said to suffer from a radical capacitor style discharge profile [first sentence from strangethings' convoluted question].
    These are graphs from my era. The graph on the left is the discharge profile of the PbC - straight line like a capacitor compared to a lead acid battery. You will see very little overlap and this shows that if you make a battery like Axion's competitor (Ultrabattery) you would have to discharge the lead to almost no capacitor before you start to discharge the activated carbon electrode shown by the PbC battery. I.e. the Ultrabattery cannot work as it is described. The graph on the right shows that if you do mix carbon and lead, the carbon will become very resistive and also not work. Another reason the Ultrabattery cannot work as described. We think that it is all hype, smoke and mirrors, lies, etc. We have good reason to believe so.

     

    If not will you comment on the PbC small overlapping capacity window and how it could not meet the window LiFePO4 may. Meaning, Axion PbC is no substitute, but LiFePo and Lithium Ion are in many systems. For Axion PbC to be installed they would have to alter the system.

     

    You miss the point. Axion builds 8-cell PbC batteries. The operate from 16V down to 8V without any problem and this nicely overlaps the 14.8-10V window used by automotive companies and PbC battery has plenty of energy in this region for start-stop. Automakers can easily boost the alternator output to 16V and then use two diodes in series to drop the voltage to 14.8V for the lead acid battery and allow full use of the PbC operative voltage window. Infact it has 10 minutes worth of power for the electrical system in the car with no charging down to 12V. A large Maxwell supercap system based on 3000F cells X 6 (at least 250$ worth) can only supply about 30s of support - this would also be designed to go to 16V.>>
    28 Jan 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    "the link leads to: http://bit.ly/rmBvjU "

     

    Excellent! Thanks!
    28 Jan 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2218) | Send Message
     
    Given all the random (ignorant) discussions by the hopium smokers, this cartoon seems spot on http://xkcd.com/1166
    28 Jan 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (892) | Send Message
     
    Is Flux Power Holdings really up over 3,000%? LOL

     

    http://bit.ly/1135Q76
    28 Jan 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    May be they were awarded a patent on "flux capacitor".
    28 Jan 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    A bit of encouragement for those of us awaiting grid infrastructure upgrades. This author is bullish.

     

    Innovation Almost Dead. Perhaps Not So In Electricity
    http://onforb.es/YcGiyU
    (quote) in contrast to the past lost decades – we can expect to see a good deal of new innovation and on-the-ground technology deployment in the electricity realm. Look for technology deployment to continue in the ‘progressive markets’ where regulatory and legal frameworks allow or promote it. Expect to see initial maturities in outlier markets with high prices (e.g., islands with extremely high generating cost, such as Hawaii) or end-uses with specialized requirements (remember when solar was the province of highway signs and offshore buoys). And watch for technologies to migrate more broadly to larger areas as they hit scale.

     

    The potentially revolutionary impact of these technologies is not far off, and in some markets overseas, the effects are already being felt at the macro level. In fact, the CEO of RWE – Germany’s second largest utility noted last month that largely as a consequence of solar penetration (32,000 MW in Germany) “our core markets are changing remarkably fast…Almost no other industry is currently undergoing such dramatic change as the energy sector…The success of this transformation of the energy industry will be decided at the local level.” The customer – not the ratepayer – is gaining the upper hand. Australia is countenancing the same sorts of issues, as it will soon have the highest rate of rooftop solar penetration on the planet.

     

    Taken to an extreme, this dynamic is such in Hawaii that the utility recently commented that customer self-generation and what it calls ‘cascading natural deregulation” could render its current business obsolete. That kind of change is precisely the revolutionary innovation and technology the Economist was talking about. It is largely coming about despite –rather than because of – the utilities. Watch for it. It’s not going away.(unquote)
    28 Jan 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: I liked the article a lot. Perhaps because its topic is one of the things that drew me to (CPST) though. I've been a big believer that micro-grids were the future ever since I heard the term and CPST might be a part of that. I also felt, strongly, that the impetus for them would begin outside the industry as energy users would be casting about for solutions to the troubles they suffer with our current infrastructure.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jan 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HTL. Makes me want to read more about CPST. If you have any favorite links I am all ears. (or all mouse as it were)
    29 Jan 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    D lane: I guess the easiest place to start is with the videos that detail various actual implementations.

     

    http://bit.ly/11a5V82

     

    I've tons of other links, but picking and choosing would take a lot of time - I'm still trying to organize the hodge-podge so I can post links to the Russian (Moscow) bus and other activities that I said I would try to pull together. It's hit-and-miss as I flit from activity to activity.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again!
    29 Jan 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    I just has a thought that goes, "when regulations fail, opt out!".

     

    In this context, it means that if government fiddling with "green power" taxes (tariffs, surcharges, etc) on electricity buyers gets obnoxious, there now exists a technology that could allow buyers to opt out of the grid for most, or all, power needs.

     

    I don't know how large a burden such charges are in the US, but they seem to be higher in the "enlightened renewable power" grids of the EU. How big a percentage of the generating and delivery cost do taxes need to be before the move to micro-grids and local generation expands rapidly?
    Recall that any building that uses natural gas for heat and hot water can add micro-generation and have effectively free electricity generating fuel, since they already burn the gas in boilers, etc. Extracting energy with a gas turbine and still having 1000F degree gas for heating is a no-brainer, technically and economically.
    29 Jan 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    It is exciting to think about! I don't think current taxes will be the driver but rather power grid failures and/or a desire for more energy security.
    29 Jan 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    Greatly improved energy efficiency (co-generation, etc.) can certainly make in-house micro-grids more attractive and tax differentials on delivered energy (by form) can make a difference.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (936) | Send Message
     
    There are no shortage of tax subsidies for petroleum consumption. Why should other energy sources be any different?
    29 Jan 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    NGS, your assertion is disputable, to say the least, and in my estimation is a topic that is not even tangentially on topic.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1903) | Send Message
     
    The political boxing ring is this way...

     

    http://bit.ly/10yShq9

     

    (Enter at your own risk, it is not for the feint of heart. Few commentators of a certain political ilk remain intact)
    29 Jan 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (936) | Send Message
     
    D-inv. It is no more off topic than the post I responded to and some of your political diatribes. That's all I have to say on the matter.
    30 Jan 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    More alliances.

     

    Ford joins Daimler, Nissan to develop fuel cell vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/VjhgvG
    28 Jan 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Chevy Malibu Eco hybrid is a tough sell

     

    "Most prospective Chevrolet Malibu buyers at Castle Chevrolet in suburban Chicago quickly decide that they don't want to pay nearly $3,000 more for the Eco mild-hybrid version.

     

    "For most people, it's hard to justify the extra money based on the extra fuel economy" of a combined 3 mpg more than the base model, says Jeff Tuckman, the dealership's inventory manager. "You've got the base LS model sitting next to it that's just as nice and luxurious."

     

    It's a problem flagged by many Chevy dealers. They say that the Malibu Eco doesn't offer a big enough fuel economy boost to sway buyers to choose it over one of the other two engine types: a 2.5-liter engine or a 2.0-liter turbocharged version."

     

    "GM engineers are working on a next-generation eAssist system that would offer a more compelling jump in fuel economy and likely would be offered on some large vehicles, including crossovers. They won't say when it will arrive or how much additional mpg lift it might deliver.

     

    "We continue to work on improvements to get the efficiency up and the costs down," says Pamela Fletcher, GM's executive chief engineer for electric vehicles."

     

    http://bit.ly/Vji03J
    28 Jan 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    They saw it coming back in

     

    Feature: GM’s eAssist Hybrid Bet Doesn’t Pay Off
    Sami Haj-Assaad | Jul 17, 1:01 PM

     

    http://bit.ly/VjjJpS

     

    "Currently available on three models, GM’s eAssist technology is a product and packaging gamble the automaker has made that does not appear to be paying off. While the first two Buick models to receive the mild-hybrid system received modest praise, the new Chevy Malibu Eco has drawn so much criticism it was recently named “the most disliked vehicle of 2012” according to Fortune magazine.

     

    The impact of that title, not to mention all the bad press that’s led up to it, can’t be understated. The reputation, and sales, of an entire lifecycle of Malibu models (the Malibu being one of GM’s largest volume products) is hanging in the balance."
    28 Jan 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    ""GM engineers are working on a next-generation eAssist system that would offer a more compelling jump in fuel economy and likely would be offered on some large vehicles, including crossovers. They won't say when it will arrive or how much additional mpg lift it might deliver."

     

    Lets say that GM is working with a lead acid/carbon battery maker. Could the cost benefit analysis be different in a mild hybrid. Is the future e-assist Malibu "powered by Axion inside"?
    I have to believe there is some reason GM has supported this testing regimine without government grant support.
    29 Jan 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    Tom did say that Axion's work with the unidentified US OEM is going forward despite the fact that the DOE did not select the Axion-GM application for an award.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2218) | Send Message
     
    I think fuel cells may become the next hopium product marketed to government subsidy givers.

     

    Fuel cells are, of course, totally irrelevant in solving any mainstream transportation problem. The key issue for transportation is energy density - how many liters (or cubic feet) are required to store a useful amount of energy to propel a vehicle 300 miles at highway speeds (70 mph+).

     

    Batteries can't. Compressed hydrogen can't. Compressed natural gas can't. Petrofuels do. I wish there were a lot of other alternatives.

     

    No matter what "miracle" fuel cell is touted to do, the fundamental issue of energy density is not solved.

     

    The second huge issue is "Where's the energy?" (Remember "Where's the beef?") There is no cheap, scalable source of hydrogen. There are some niche inexpensive availabilities such as occasionally with excess wind or hydro, but nothing that could possibly scale to 1% of US energy needs.

     

    Batteries obvius;ly don'
    28 Jan 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    Fuel cells were the hopium kings of 2000 through 2002, so it will be a while before the next generation of gullible investors gets sucked back into that swamp.

     

    http://yhoo.it/14poELM
    http://yhoo.it/14poELO

     

    It is about time, however, for another round of methanol hysteria.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9681) | Send Message
     
    Or...that vanduim batteries will save the world.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget Thorium!!!! c'mon... I mean THORium? how cool is that? almost as cool as lithium that's what. If only the eevil oil companies wouldn't keep buying up and supressing all the REAL solutions, we'd be living in this totally sweet world...
    28 Jan 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    "Cold" Fusion will exist to make the Hydrogen before the rest of the economically working system exists; but then to put the Hydrogen in the hands of the consumer is somewhat like releasing your favorite daughter to the gorilla that wants to date or possibly even marry her. Shudder!!!!!
    28 Jan 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    I thought that was spelled 'eevul?'
    28 Jan 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    good catch sir, but current parlance has that it's actually eeviLL.

     

    "vull" is apparently now oldschool. I know. but what can we do? regrets.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    I just wanted to double check because spelling errors make bloggers look tremendously amateurish.
    28 Jan 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Bay
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Any word behind the recent rally of ECAU.OB?
    28 Jan 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    Echo Automotive has a market cap of $181.5 million, a working capital deficit of $1.1 million, a stockholders equity deficit of $945,300 and $6,100 in revenue for the first nine months of 2012.

     

    They did a reverse merger into a public shell in September of last year and left 30% of the stock in the hands of the shell promoters.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/X4u5JP

     

    I wouldn't touch the stock with a 20-foot pole.
    28 Jan 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I asked about Echo last week in this forum after receiving a highly promotional mailer pumping its stock. We need to turn these guys on to AXPW!
    28 Jan 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    We need to keep investors who rely on highly promotional mailers as far away from Axion as possible. They'll find AXPW eventually, but there's no sense in encouraging the hot money yet.
    28 Jan 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Rather have them discover AXPW before the financing than after!
    28 Jan 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    Also rec'd the "highly promotional pumper-issue" for ECAU.

     

    As for calls to "pump" AXPW: IMO, the volume of trade in AXPW is already a concern and suggests a problem with day-traders who have learned to trust the stock for short-term gains, knowing there is always a soft landing. The stock has a developed a pps rhythm, esp over the past year, that concerns me. I gravitate towards tightly-held and thinly-traded stocks where offerings are gobbled up and orders take a week to fill if ever.

     

    AXPW has become my most heavily-traded stock - too much floating already and here comes another dilution?
    29 Jan 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9681) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: Though Axion's daily volume has dramatically increased over the past couple of years, it's still very thinly traded.

     

    I'll also quibble with how Axion, "... has developed a pps rhythm." Charting-wise, Axion looks like it's on its way upward and still heading north on its second Elliot Wave. But then, there's the coming cap raise. How can we park that into a rhythm, other than this is the second annual cap raise likely to occur around March?

     

    Lastly, and we each have our investing styles, but I don't like thinly traded stocks, or especially, especially, especially don't like stocks that take a week to fill an order.

     

    What I can't wait for is when Axion routinely rolls a million plus shares of volume every day.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    http://xkcd.com/125 To everything there is a season. When our time arrives, we will know...
    28 Jan 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    It seems Mitsubishi may be opting out of EVs in stealth mode.
    I mentioned before that the i-Mev was not going to get a makeover as the other EVs seem to be.
    Now I've run into this:
    Lease Price on Mitsubishi i Drops to Absurdly Low $69 Per Month
    http://bit.ly/YdwjJC
    A 2 year lease on a $30k car. $2,100 down or $169 a month $0 down.
    This seems like get-rid-of-it pricing.
    While the i-Mev may hang around as a compliance car. I think Mitsubishi considers it a dead end.

     

    Mitsubishi is bringing out a PHEV expected to be in the mid $40s in the US. 25 mi or so electric, 12 kWh of Battery Power

     

    Another lease discounted
    Ford Discounts The Focus Electric, Leases Now From $249/Month
    http://bit.ly/TOZm8K
    It looks like they will have to go lower.
    28 Jan 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    It appears Nissan is getting a bit smarter.
    Nissan Says US LEAF Plant Not Equipped To Run At Capacity, Will Build To Demand
    Apparently large parts of the plant are empty at present. THe battery plant will make Packs for cars to be sold elsewhere.

     

    OTOH Maybe not much smarter
    Nissan is still planning to bring out another BEV.
    2014 Infiniti LE And Battery Packs To Be Assembled In Tennessee.
    Expected to get 100 mpc

     

    http://bit.ly/14pKY7W
    28 Jan 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Window dressing is when a large corporation like Nissan states it will mass produce a car like the Leaf, and then produces few of them. But enough that the Public likes the idea.

     

    Foolhardy is when a company builds an expensive auto manufacturing center ( or battery center) and keeps it idle.

     

    Maybe EV companies need stop/ start for their manufacturing centers. That way they won't waste money "idling away" their unused resources.
    29 Jan 2013, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    On Forbes is the beginning of a 6 part series about the driverless car. Only 2 parts have been written so far. Google is the author's focus:

     

    Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google’s Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
    The Ripple Effects—As Far As The Eye Can See
    Why Change Will Come Sooner Than You Think
    How Google Will Profit
    How Auto Makers Might Win (or Lose)
    If You Think You Can Just Be A Spectator, Think Again

     

    A basic problem I see is that he figures 10% of the present cars is enough. I think you need more than 10% every day at rush our. Also what about events such as Sandy heading your way.
    Otherwise what businesses will be effected?

     

    Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
    http://onforb.es/WciDjq

     

    Google's Trillion-Dollar Driverless Car -- Part 2: The Ripple Effects
    http://onforb.es/14pRyva

     

    There are a couple of Forbes articles that are mostly saying Google won't be the one to do it, but don't say it won't be done.

     

    Will Google Kill The Auto Industry? No, And Here's Why.
    http://onforb.es/WciDjt

     

    Why The Idea of a Google Driverless Car is Nonsense
    http://onforb.es/14pRzPG

     

    The radar setup on the self driving Prius is $70,000 and a timeline of 2020.

     

    One caveat:
    It is likely no Auto maker will take the liability.
    The driver will be behind the wheel and as responsible as the automakers can make him/her.
    29 Jan 2013, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4156) | Send Message
     
    Friend of mine thinks this driverless car thing will happen within 20 years.

     

    He imagines a world where there are no more taxi drivers or truck drivers because everything goes driverless.

     

    I think it will take longer, and I'm dubious about if this is an advancement.

     

    ***

     

    "I fear the day technology will surpass human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots." (attributed to Albert Einstein in the name of an e-mail going around - http://bit.ly/Wymi7C)
    29 Jan 2013, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    While I'm frequently seen as a tech curmudgeon it won't surprise me to see a first generation of driverless cars in ten years. Some tech ideas move more quickly than others and I think driverless may be in that class because it takes safety out of the hands of a generation of idiots.
    29 Jan 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    "One caveat:
    It is likely no Auto maker will take the liability.
    The driver will be behind the wheel and as responsible as the automakers can make him/her."

     

    Exactly. The US is run by lawyers and NO auto company is going to take on the liability by saying "We have control of the vehicle."

     

    If it happens it will be outside of the US. Even if the over all accident rate declined and the severity levels on average declined you'd still have the lawyers cherry picking "what if's" for cash.

     

    Bump On The Road For Driverless Cars Isn't Technology, It's You

     

    ""But what about the unpredictable?" Anwyl asks. "And this is where human beings still have an advantage over technology and computers is that we deal with ambiguity or unexpected situations much better than machines."

     

    Anwyl says in the coming years, our insurance and legal systems are going to have to work out questions of liability."

     

    http://n.pr/119M48W
    29 Jan 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2218) | Send Message
     
    Unlike electrochemical batteries limited by physics and chemistry, autonomous control system for cars are very realistic. Kurzweil projects that cheap computers smarter than humans are within a decade or two (I don't remember the exact date).

     

    I would not be surprised in a few decades the majority of driven vehicles have autonomous systems. It could be especially useful for trucking (speed not important) and commuters (avoiding traffic, and generally very speed limited). Vehicles without drivers never have road rage, are always patient, may communicate with other autonomous vehicles (think about merging onto highways and negotiating stop signs), and never drunk. AVs are likely to have much lower accident rates.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I agree with everything you say. Unfortunately liability concerns often slow down or interfere with progress in many areas. I just don't know how you get around the fact that accidents will happen and the liability will then be the fault of the vehicle control system and therefore the manufacturer. Lawyers love deep pockets.

     

    I think this is why Toyota is stating that they are enhancing the drivers ability to control the vehicle but the driver is still in control.

     

    Hey, Maybe they will use a Windows operating system and when the control system senses a collision it will tint your windscreen blue?
    29 Jan 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    So you're saying driverless cars will lead to an increase in alcoholism, right? :-) And an increase in guns sales as the damn things will probably turn themselves off in closed garages ...
    29 Jan 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    On a topic close to our hearts; I believe that cargo trucks are more likely to be automated first. My guess is that safety and insurance costs will improve and defray most of the cost.

     

    From an operating cost standpoint, how much of the cost of truck freight is in the total employment costs of the driver? Also, robots don't sleep, so the percent use of the capital is higher by keeping the truck on the road more hours/day.

     

    The Fedgov keeps pushing up the cost of human labor with their attempts to buy votes with various handouts. The employer ends up paying for much of that largess. Do some of you have some numbers to offer?

     

    Could E-power add a "robotic automation package" to their hybrid upgrade?
    29 Jan 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    bonus: That awesome "machines gone amuck" movie genre from the 70's enjoys a craptastic revival... just imagine our autonomous renegade 18-wheeler hell-bent on destroying a small city--cab over Pete with a reefer on and a serious jonesin' to go downtown! yeehaw. Won't be anything silent about its running either.. Sure ain't gonna help my recurring "killdozer" nightmares.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2116) | Send Message
     
    Christine !

     

    Stephen King, I remember.
    29 Jan 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    I will never ever ride in a driverless car. Certainly not as long as anyone is allowed to drive themselves. The whole concept disgusts me, frankly.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Keyboard
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    You likely know this already, Rick, but for others, Kurzweil's crystal ball gazing is controversial and looks best when measured by himself or his acolytes.

     

    Former Scientific American editor John Rennie in December 2010 issue of IEEE Spectrum: "On close examination, his clearest and most successful predictions often lack originality or profundity. And most of his predictions come with so many loopholes that they border on the unfalsifiable."

     

    Also, Forbes "Ray Kurzweil's Predictions For 2009 Were Mostly Inaccurate":
    forbes.com/sites/
    /alexknapp/2012/03/20
    /ray-kurzweils-
    predictions-for-
    2009-were-mostly
    -inaccurate/
    Kurzweil is given the courtesy of a huge rebuttal where he explains that he was (supposedly) understating his accuracy. Amidst all the detail he conveniently leaves out actual quotations of his predictions.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • bwarnecke
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    It takes a lifetime to earn a reputation and a minute to destroy it, keep the pump and dump boys as far away as possible! A stock may never recover from that crowd once the air is let out.
    29 Jan 2013, 02:48 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    They just made a pre boarding announcement for my flight that included the tag line "and please be sure to remove any spare lithium-ion batteries from your bag."

     

    That kind of subtle "these things are hazardous" message will inflict immense reputation damage over time.
    29 Jan 2013, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (736) | Send Message
     
    You mean, like this (perhaps not so subtle)?

     

    http://bit.ly/VPQ2yD
    29 Jan 2013, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    JPAU,

     

    Just a wonderful video to wake up to, this morning. Great laugh. Thanks for reminding me of that awful car manufacturer mistake.
    29 Jan 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (892) | Send Message
     
    LOL - Good one!
    29 Jan 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    1/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in an hour or so).
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 16000, Vol 94400, AvTrSz: 3776
    Min. Pr: 0.3140, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3219
    # Buys, Shares: 19 67400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3227
    # Sells, Shares: 6 27000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3198
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.50:1 (71.4% “buys”), DlyShts 18700 (19.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 69.26%

     

    Well, I got a little surprise today. Yesterday I said “Since volume stayed relatively flat and price seemed to have easily found support in the $0.30 and above area, we might see a quick reversal to the next leg up with the trading channel. With price below the mid-point of the “standard” 20-period Bollingers, but not pushing the lower bound, this seems more likely than not”.

     

    I was thinking in terms of 2 – 3 days with some reducing volume. Instead we got reducing volume and a 3.91% boost in the VWAP. But volume this low and the number of trades being so small, I figure this is just a “bounce” since we did bottom at, or very near, our old rising trading channel support the last two days. My guess is that a small cadre of folks that had been awaiting a bounce off support, watching their own charts, figured this was a good buy point, and I can't argue with that. But we'll need to see volume come in to believe that the next leg up has really begun.

     

    This is not a worrisome situation, IMO, as our low is above the rising support (~$0.30 & rises ~$0.01/week) and our high popped briefly above the 200-day SMA ($0.3258 yesterday). The close finished just below that, which is something not unexpected. We even had our low stay above the potential new rising channel support, ~$0.309(?).

     

    On top of that, we seem to be trading around the mid-range of our 2-day drop, ~$0.32. Combined with the range, ~$0.016, and volume, I believe there's a decent chance we'll have a little pause here and maybe some volatility, in a day or two(?), with a little push to that $0.30 area again and a little overshoot (seems to be common).

     

    The oscillators I watch are curling from low levels towards neutral, except MFI which is still falling. With low volume I wouldn't read too much into the oscillators curling up here – it's likely just relief from downward pressure allowing them to “float” to a more neutral stance here.

     

    We continue to “push” my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger and the “standard” 20-period mid-point is at ~$0.33, so I think we can expect some movement centered around our current area for a day or two. This will have the effect of trying to push the 200-day SMA below our price – we should watch to see if that acts to push price along with it.

     

    On my experimental charts stuff, trade size is below what I think of as “retail” (MMs working hard to make some scratch today?) and buy:sell just above “normal” range. Daily short sales continues to move towards a “normal” area from the abnormally low range.

     

    My experimental inflection point stuff continues to set up for a rise, but is not yet indicating such, if I read it correctly.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (795) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone.

     

    Again thanks to 481086 for the attachment in this APC that contains the comments of Dr. Buiel.

     

    I've been surprised by all the technical information provided by Dr. Buiel. After reading the comments, I am much more confident than in the Derby (Stpo/Start) AXION POWER PbC Tech. just going ahead and no competitors in sight.

     

    Have a good day-Carlos
    29 Jan 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (795) | Send Message
     
    From Dr. Biuel comments, I Drew the following:

     

    1-.Drivers may chose not to drive with the Economy Mode disabled or with AC on which normally defeats the start/stop system; however, during the 20 minute drive cycle test, you know the AC will be off and the start/stop system will be on.
    2-.Ultrabattery cannot work as described.
    3-.Axion builds 8-cell PbC batteries. The operate from 16V down to 8V without any problem and this nicely overlaps the 14.8-10V window used by automotive companies and PbC battery has plenty of energy in this region for start-stop.
    4-.The PbC has 40% less capacity than VARTA AGM as well as less cranking amps...
    ...however the PbC battery does not need to crank the car, the lead acid does this just fine and the problem with the lead acid battery is that you can take the energy out but you can't put it back in so it is not useful for start stop.
    5-.The PbC battery has much lower voltage per cell, however, and therefore requires more cells to produce the equivalent voltage and energy as an ordinary lead-acid battery. This leads to higher cost per volt and high cost per kW- hr. Also, any new technology has higher initial production costs.
    6-.I agree that from a data sheet a PbC battery will not win out over any one other technology on a single parameter, but when you put it all together, you can start to understand the interest from NS, automakers, and other applications. The world for batteries and renewable energy is huge. PbC will find it's place.
    7-.You might need a once in 3-5year equalization charge but compare this to the one in 3 month equalization charge need for lead acid in the start/stop application and you can see which will provide a normal warranty period and which will not. Axion PbC can also be fixed by a 36 hour charge at the end of 3-5 years and return to 80+% of intial performance. Not so for lead acid.
    8-.Axion still needs to move more product out into the market and show their advantage here. I don't think they are being aggressive enough or moving fast enough to do this and I share your frustration here.
    9-.I believe that they are doing everything right and hopefully 2013 will start to show returns from the long technical sales campaigns they have been working on. Time will tell.
    10-.Microhybrid vehicles: The vehicle electrical system normally sits at 13.4-14.8V depending on age of the vehicle, temperature, vehicle loads, etc. Axion proposed (see various presentations at different conferences) using an 8 cell PbC battery that can be charged to 16.0V. The vehicle alternator can be reset easily to up to about 18V so 16V is not a problem. The alternator would charge the PbC battery directly and then the lead acid battery through a pair of diodes similar to the diodes used in the alternator to rectify the output to DC. This pair of diodes costs 5$. In this case, the battery can discharge from 16V to 12V or even 9V and provide enough energy to power the electrical system in the vehicle for about 10 minutes. This would allow the vehicle to be off for up to 10 minutes during stop and go traffic and lead to large fuel economy improvements.
    11-.One very important lesson that I have learned (Dr. Buiel) over the years is that every application has it's own requirements and total energy is not always the most important requirement. Many applications require quick recharging - these seems to occurring more and more when you talk about energy efficiency.
    12-.Niche Markets: I think that one of the best applications for PbC (see many public conference proceedings including those in conjunction with BWM) is micro hybrid vehicles. Currently, almost all markets will make this standard equipment by 2016, not because it is the best future technology for vehicles getting the best fuel economy, but because microhybrids provide a 5-10% fuel economy gain when tested using the EPA and EU testing profiles for mileage and emissions. This is not a niche markets. Grid storage and hybrid buses, these are also not niche markets. If the company is successful in just one of these markets as they have explaining in their filings and in presentations all they have provided all over the world, they will be very successful.

     

    Thanks Dr. Buiel-Carlos
    29 Jan 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Keyboard
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the compilation, Carlos.

     

    A correction:

     

    "The PbC battery has much lower voltage per cell".
    No, that is not Dr Buiel speaking. That claim and the rest of point #5 is the anonymous questioner mixing up various allegations with the obvious to keep things well confused.

     

    Isn't the difference in voltage per cell only around 5%?

     

    The lack of quotation marks throughout the thread makes the original very hard to follow and it is a valuable service that Carlos attempted the compilation and successfully overcame numerous traps.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (795) | Send Message
     
    Hi Keyboard.

     

    Thanks for correcting me.

     

    Have a good day-Carlos.
    31 Jan 2013, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    PNM PV-battery storage project a success

     

    " "The project is really helping us to conceptualize how batteries can fit into the grid with PV, and how they can bring the most value," Willard said.

     

    But for widespread deployment, battery systems must decrease in cost.

     

    "Right now it's still too expensive," Willard said. "But there's a huge amount of research and development going on in the storage industry. A tidal wave of new technology is coming that will push costs much lower."

     

    The battery system installed at the Prosperity project is based on advanced technology developed by Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. CSIRO added capacitors to lead-acid "ultra batteries" to improve their ability to manage the sudden charges and discharges needed to shore up renewable energy systems. It also added carbon to electrodes for more conductivity."

     

    http://bit.ly/XHPnNp
    29 Jan 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    I sense that the reporter doesn't have a clue about how the Ultrabattery is built or what it allegedly does.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, iindelco. Seems to be a very important link regarding storage and PV.
    It does bring up more questions for Dr. Buiel. Sir, do you expect this Ultrabattery to have a short life? Do you have a reaction to its apparent 17 month success in this project?
    More broadly for anyone, is this project in New Mexico primarily for energy or power? I'm reading it to be about energy, which seems consistent with the focus of East Penn for the UB.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    It's very interesting to me. I've read Dr. Buiel's comments on the Ultrabattery and the issues associated with adding carbon to the NAM. These words of caution seem to correlate with JCI's words in their analysts day conference from about a year ago. It also seems JCI has not jumped on the carbon additive bandwagon from what I've seen and that says something. Well unless I've missed it.

     

    But what's most interesting is the level of support the Ultrabattery design is getting from Furukawa, East Penn, the Australians via CSIRO, DOE and the ALABC. All of these people are talking together in numerous forums. So what gives? To tell you the truth I'm perplexed in light of this.
    29 Jan 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    Part of the explanation for "Furukawa, East Penn, the Australians via CSIRO, DOE and the ALABC... talking together in numerous forums is they all have access to hard, empirical Ultrabattery performance data and to the batteries themselves. We can attribute lack of similar behavior regarding PbC to Axion's NDA policy or policies. Prior to PJM's release of FR performance data on its grid, Axion was the only source of information on PbC performance and reliability.

     

    Axion's NDA policy and practices may have been necessary to preserve intellectual property rights but it has imposed high transaction costs on potential buyers and limited marketability of the product(s).
    29 Jan 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D-inv, I'll go along with that as it makes sense. But my primary point, sorry if I didn't express it well, has to do with the thought that the Ultrabattery and generically carbon additives in the NAM don't work well. Dr. Buiel has said as much and JCI has eluded to this IMO. So why all the backing for the Ultrabattery? I can see why, perhaps, carbon additives might be OK as it doesn't alter the manufacturing process very much and it seems to give some small incremental improvement in some areas. But the Ultrabattery appears to be a big deal in the process changes required. If it doesn't work well why do it? Or am I just not using the right scale. This meaning it works incrementally better then carbon additives but nowhere near as good for things the PbC battery is much better at?

     

    I guess I'd hope Dr. Buiel can touch on this a little if he finds the time. Or if he can do so.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2560) | Send Message
     
    I received the FOIA request info back on the new Ultrabattery installation DOE grant application. It is a pretty large packet. I started to look through it, but there are large portions blacked out as well.

     

    I will try and make it available tomorrow.
    29 Jan 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: Thank you!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: Very timely (given Dr. Buiel's contributions and iindelco's links this morning) and appreciated!
    29 Jan 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Thanks so much for your efforts. It's very much appreciated as always.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    II
    The 100,000 mi Honda hybrid also doesn't seem like a failure to me.

     

    OTOH
    A Honda Insight outfitted with an UltraBattery completed a 100,000 mile track test in Britain, running on the battery alone. In addition to the increased lifespan, the batteries reportedly provide 50-percent more power and are 70-percent cheaper than the current nickel metal-hydride batteries used in hybrids and other electric vehicles. This was reported in Jan 2008.

     

    Yet, I don't know of any company that has built/sold a hybrid with it in either.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, Good point. Surely sounds like a possible opportunity for success.

     

    Unfortunately I wish we had the data on how the test was run. 100k miles over a short time frame might not truly reflect real world abuse conditions that the storage system actually is tasked with. Always hard to assess the full story when they just throw the title of the book at you.
    29 Jan 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2562) | Send Message
     
    You are an FOIA champ. Awesome work,
    29 Jan 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Smart ED could be first with battery lease in US; electric scooter, bike under discussion, too

     

    http://aol.it/VljpH9

     

    "Smart made a splash last fall with the announcement that the base price of the all-electric Fortwo Electric Drive would be $25,000, making it the cheapest EV in the US. After getting a lot of attention with that number, Smart has been communicating with potential customers to make sure that the launch this spring (no date has yet been set) will be exactly what people want. Smart USA General Manager Tracey Matura is certainly planning for success."

     

    Stay tuned ... lots of maybes, not much definite ... yet.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    Someone asked about why (ECAU) was running?

     

    "Echo Automotive Welcomes 2 Time Indy 500 Winner Arie Luyendyk to Advisory Board "

     

    http://mwne.ws/WzeToQ

     

    And there's lots of pumping going on right now - fleecing in progress?

     

    http://mwne.ws/127aaBm

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Sure wish I'd bought some when I first mentioned ECAU on this Blog! (Of course, I'd have sold when the stock moved 30% and missed most of the run anyway.) AXPW has a similar (though much broader) theme, which is why I was eager to get reactions from others who know the field better than I do.
    29 Jan 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    from the main page.. more on the echo run
    29 Jan 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9681) | Send Message
     
    -- Johnson Controls powers the Cadillac ATS with its advanced absorbent glass mat battery, which is designed for robust cycling performance.

     

    http://bit.ly/Vu70WF
    29 Jan 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2239) | Send Message
     
    I've been considering the marketing, financial and political resources of lithium ion and the Ultrabattery. Lithium Ion has DOE and their billions in its corner (along with the major manufacturers) and Ultrabattery has Furukawa, East Penn, the Australians via CSIRO, DOE and the ALABC.

     

    Aside from BMW in Istanbul in 2009 who else is spreading any word about the PbC? It's tough being the new kid on the block nobody wants to play with! However, NS is putting their money where their mouth is so we must be grateful to them for their use of the PbC in their electric locomotive project. They are the only visible supporter of the PbC.

     

    Maybe if Axion gains a follow-on project from DOE on Axion's small business innovation grant it will help a little. I don't trust DOE any further than I can throw them. Would they go so far as to not award Axion an additional grant just to try and bury the PbC? Damn if I know.
    29 Jan 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the US Navy will come to the rescue?!?!?!
    29 Jan 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    AB, the US Navy is a strong candidate for PbC purchases in the long-term but sales there are certainly not very prospective as long as sequestration is pending/threatening.
    29 Jan 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (795) | Send Message
     
    Hi Ban.

     

    ...Ultrabattery has Furukawa, East Penn, the Australians via CSIRO, DOE and the ALABC.

     

    I'm not worried. The decision makers are the engineers of BMW, NSC, PJM, Rosewater, and so on.
    In the coming years the battery will be as important as the turbo, the design of the valves or radiator. Automakers will be those who will select cars batteries.

     

    Have a nice day-Carlos
    29 Jan 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2239) | Send Message
     
    I'm simply pointing out that the other technologies have a tailwind behind them in publicity and support. Axion does not enjoy that benefit. It is nothing I am worried about. I've decided to stick it out in 2013 due to the opportunity that has developed in rail. If auto was the only possibility I would be outta here until it seemed more likely to result in orders.

     

    D-Inv also pointed out there were opportunities in the near-term in heavy trucking, but there isn't the muscle of a NS visible at this point. If a Freightliner were to make some public statement I'd be more excited. EPower is interesting but they have their own battles to fight as a small company, much like Axion.

     

    It's to Axion's credit that it is fighting the tides that be in the marketplace and I give them a lot of respect for their persistence.
    29 Jan 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    I agree with bang on ePower.

     

    PbC solves their battery problem, but as Tim was discussing recently, questions need to be asked and definitively answered about the longevity of their ICE before customers will be lining up at their door.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    ePower doesn't expect any longevity issues on their ICE because its a John Deere turbo diesel that's built for generator use and the truck keeps the engine running at a steady state 1800 rpm instead of running the engine speed up and down with speed and gear changes. It's the kindest duty cycle possible.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2239) | Send Message
     
    Forgive my ignorance John, but how does it hold the RPM steady when either going up or down hills? Is going uphill where the PbC adds the extra punch needed? Does part of the unneeded genset load go to the PbC when going down hill, or do they use regen braking or what? How is the PbC recharged?
    29 Jan 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Bang, one thing to consider... constant RPM doesn't have to imply constant load... a governed engine will call for more fuel to maintain RPM when it's under heavier load, and therefore needs to deliver more torque (thus horsepower) to the generator... the generator will demand more torque from the generator engine as it's tasked to deliver more current to the batteries and/or motor...
    29 Jan 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Bang
    " but how does it hold the RPM steady when either going up or down hills?"

     

    The PbC puts out power to go up hill and regenerates on the way down.
    It's not unlimited, which is why it is not considered a "mountain goat."
    It's better from the Rockies to the Appalachians: East, West, North and South.
    PbC will supplement the generator in stop and go traffic, urban areas, speeding up and slowing down as well as up and down hills.
    The generator puts out enough power to drive the fully loaded vehicle at speed on a flat road and a bit extra to charge the PbC as needed.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for your comment, JP.

     

    ePower should be good to go on that basis, then.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    A123 off to China - sale approved by CFIUS

     

    http://bloom.bg/T6B8W3
    29 Jan 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    peachy. never miss an opportunity to gib it all away, USA. we oughta just put the whole country up for yardsale and get it over with...
    29 Jan 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    48: We're doing just that in the real estate area.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    1/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from isntablog (up later).
    # Trds: 29, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 145105, AvTrSz: 5004
    Min. Pr: 0.3216, Max Pr: 0.3311, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3288
    # Buys, Shares: 21 110305, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3295
    # Sells, Shares: 8 34800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3263
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.17:1 (76% “buys”), DlyShts xxx (%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.03%

     

    On the traditional TA front, it looks like a little indecision is ruling the day as we move essentially sideways (the higher low and high is too small to consider significant in just the second day of pushing against $0.33). If we do go sideways, I think it will be only for short-term (3 – 5 days?). The $0.33 is an old friend – an area seen in past times of “churn”. All the oscillators are heading up towards neutral and none are in oversold any longer.

     

    I don't think another dip into the $0.30xx area should be unexpected here, and maybe a little overshoot. Beyond that feeling, there's nothing suggestive of direction or timing. We're still inside the rising trading channel (both the older and newer one), we're futzing around with the 200-day SMA ($0.3249), pretty much centered inside the “standard” 20-period Bollingers (~$0.3319).

     

    IOW, “Too Much of Nothing”.
    http://bit.ly/We2lqj

     

    On my experimental front, our VWAP is above the 200-day SMA ($0.3244), average trade still below what I think is normal retail (MMs working hard?), buy:sell is up, volume still low and if the price spread wasn't so narrow we'd still be pushing my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger. The experimental inflection point calculations are in transition with a way to go yet, so there's no help there.

     

    More "nothing to see here - move along, move along".

     

    Something I've not mentioned for a while that is positive is the price vs. the trend lines. You may recall it wasn't too long ago that correlation was running in the 82 area. For sometime now, due to the nice appreciation since November, the correlation is down to 62 and 63. I think it's positive because we've not had a sustained break above these lines for a long time. My guess is we'll be slowly pulling them up rather than them yanking us back down.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jan 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Are We Nearly There Yet?

     

    "Most of the recent progress in automotive battery technology has arisen in the area of micro-hybrids (the technology behind those stop-start systems fitted to many new car these days). These are forecasted to represent more than 30 per cent of the market by 2015 and have encouraged battery makers to improve the Dynamic Charge Acceptance (ability of the battery to recover during an engine off interval) performance of their products. This is a long way from delivering a pure-EV future, and given that micro-hybrid tech favours lead-acid batteries, it also goes in the opposite direction to that which the current EV movement would prefer us to take.

     

    Most makers are relying on a substantial reduction in the cost of batteries, but in such a mature industry there are few economies of scale available from bulk buying raw materials or improving production processes. With material costs accounting for roughly 50% of battery production, the irony is that increasing demand may lead to increased scarcity of raw materials – and consequently an increase in prices. This is exactly the opposite of what the OEMs need to increase consumer adoption.

     

    So where does this leave the consumer?

     

    There remains considerable doubt over the future of pure-EV cars, with KPMG predicting hybrids as the better mid-term solution. Indeed, with the rate of innovation for lead-acid batteries exceeding that of lithium-ion and consumer’s proven appetite for enhanced petrol or diesel hybrids, the future seems more evolution than revolution - delivering more of what we know, with lower cost and less consequences to the environment. It’s a complex issue, with no ‘silver bullet’ solutions and a whole load of hype, but are we nearly there yet?

     

    I very much doubt we’ll ever achieve the vision touted by today’s politicians and environmental activists, but I suspect car makers will be resourceful enough to invent something even better. One thing that’s for certain though, the technology needed at the right price is not yet a reality, nor will it be unless we see a breakthrough in some good old-fashioned chemistry."

     

    http://bit.ly/TTDnh5
    29 Jan 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    This article looks like a string of copy-pastes from JP's blog!

     

    Plagiarism, anyone?
    29 Jan 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    Encouraging read with low profile support for lead carbon batteries.

     

    "With material costs accounting for roughly 50% of battery production, the irony is that increasing demand may lead to increased scarcity of raw materials – and consequently an increase in prices."

     

    ISTM the suggested supply-demand market dynamic holds potential for PbC stimulus through constraining lead demand growth and upward pressure on lead price.
    29 Jan 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: that same thought crossed my mind. Although most of the lead used is from recycling, a small percentage does come from by-product of other mining activities. The 1/3rd reduction of lead used in the PbC might yield unexpected benefits, in terms of cost and supply/demand, down the road if the PbC penetrates a substantial portion of the markets it can address.

     

    Although we may think this not that significant, we've already seen Exide reference adverse pricing movements several times in their recent filings.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    The other thing that's critical to remember about lead is that it's effectively a single use commodity. Lead-acid manufacturers don't have to compete with other essentials of modern life when they go out to buy raw materials. That makes lead prices a good deal more stable. It's also an effectively unlimited resource. The world's lead miners have proven reserves of 89 million metric tons, but the known global resource is closer to 2 billion metric tons.

     

    http://on.doi.gov/WQFb72
    30 Jan 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Some of the areas that are being looked at along with SS. Under 40 USD for savings of around 15 % city and 14 percent highway. Dat's not lithium ion at 48 VDC.

     

    German Supplier Equips Ford Escape to be 15-Percent More Fuel Efficient

     

    "The cost of the improvement, Schaeffler tells us, is estimated at less than $40 per percentage point saved. “It is a very good value proposition,” says Peter Gutzmer, head of R&D at the supplier. That is certainly true, especially when compared to hybridization or advanced lightweight technology."

     

    http://bit.ly/XfBtDX
    29 Jan 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    I think 15% would cost under $600, not $40, if it cost "less than $40 per percentage point saved".
    Am I missing something?
    29 Jan 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Pasquale, No you're correct. I should have said per percentage of efficiency gain. Thanks for catching that. :)
    29 Jan 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to a gracious invitation from bwarneke, I was able to tag along on his visit to ePower. We spent about 3-1/2 hours with their team getting a first hand introduction to the truck, their series hybrid electric drive and the performance of the PbC batteries in their initial testing. While they didn't offer to let either of us drive, test rides in the tractor were part of the show.

     

    The quick and dirty report is that ePower has the truck up and running and they are delighted with the battery performance because the truck is finally running the way they want it to run and not exhibiting any of the performance problems they've had with other batteries. To quote ePower's CTO, the truck and the batteries are "very happy together."

     

    While ePower has been delighted with the regen performance, they've been babying the batteries by limiting depth of discharge. Over the next two weeks they plan to ramp the demands on the batteries by going to a deeper discharge in an effort to find out whether the truck can hurt them.

     

    Since I'm working on an iPad tonight I can't offer a full report but I'll try to cobble together an Instablog tomorrow afternoon with more detail. Bwarneke has another trip scheduled for tomorrow and will be out of pocket for a couple days but I'm confident that he'll add his thoughts when time permits.

     

    There are two Axionistas who are very glad they made the trip.
    29 Jan 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    That brief read out looks encouraging, JP. Look forward to your planned instablog.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    I'm likining this so far.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Personally I hope they do everything they can to beat the snot out of those batteries. Talking real-world lead-foot abuse baby! Pound 'em into the dirt. Crawl up hills if they have to, however long it takes, then scream down the other side, run em all night long with full load trailers, in the cold then all the way down to Texas for the heat. Burn rubber at every light. Try to kill them batteries any way they can, then report back that they failed. Miserably. That's the only thing that will sate our Axionista thirst for vengeance and victory! Death to the immortal PbC? Nah! Stab it with their steely knives 'til they just can't kill the beast!
    29 Jan 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2239) | Send Message
     
    JP> Wonderful report. Do they have a target depth of discharge they are hoping to achieve from the battery?
    29 Jan 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    A special thanks to both of you for taking the time and effort to visit ePower. Also very pleased to see ePower take the time to report out on the progress of their program and to take you guys for a spin. This is very welcome news indeed and I'm guessing your thoughts on the smiling Axionista count is going up fast.

     

    Thanks for the quick note and looking forward to your and Bwarneke's added thoughts. It's a good evening for sure! I mean, how excited you guys must have been with such a gracious host.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Hi John,

     

    One question and I'll await for your Instablog: Regarding the deeper discharge to find out if the truck can hurt the PbC batteries, can you discuss the battery management system? Does it provide status for each battery? Are they just using the truck's standard BMS for these tests or do they have extra instrumentation installed? Ok, I guess that was more than one question.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    " they are delighted with the battery performance because the truck is finally running the way they want it to run and not exhibiting any of the performance problems they've had with other batteries."

     

    Between those lines I think I see "routinely yielding the fuel savings we have advertised" without charge balance and battery replacement issues encountered in earlier versions.

     

    "delighted with the regen performance, they've been babying the batteries by limiting depth of discharge. Over the next two weeks they plan to ramp the demands on the batteries by going to a deeper discharge ...", e.g. - How much more fuel savings can we realize before shortening service life of the batteries?
    29 Jan 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    JP, Damn! Happy surprises are the best kind! Way to get out there and get a look.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2530) | Send Message
     
    Terrific news, John! bwarneke posted awhile ago that he was trying to meet with ePower in late January---glad to see that happen and on schedule. Looking forward to your Instablog and bwarneke's later comments.
    29 Jan 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (892) | Send Message
     
    Good one 48 LOL -- Almost poetic! :)
    30 Jan 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29876) | Send Message
     
    The quick summary on their challenge is that the truck is very quick from standstill to 35 mph but tends to be a bit of a dog from 35 to 55 and on hills because the five speed automatic transmission they're using is an off-the-shelf unit that's geared for diesel, which has increasing torque at higher speeds.

     

    So far they've limited the DoD to 10.5 volts, which doesn't pull much of the battery energy because of the sloping discharge cure. Over the next two weeks they plan to discharge in incrementally deeper cycles and eventually take the minimum voltage down to 5V, which should give them all the energy they need to keep the motor running at 3,600 rpm which is their optimal number.

     

    Jay Bowman is very optimistic based on what he's seen so far but doesn't want to go "all in" until he's worked the batteries at the higher DoD, which Axion is telling him won't be a problem. This is a guy who's been disappointed by battery after battery and want to be shown, but is delighted with everything he's seen so far.

     

    We spent a good deal of time talking about the delays they've had over the last couple months and they were careful to emphasize that the problems had nothing to do with the batteries or Axion. they were just quirky failures in other components.

     

    They're very firm on their 10 mph average expectation.
    30 Jan 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.

     

    "They're very firm on their 10 mph average expectation."

     

    I suspect you mean mpg? That would be really sweet in a fully loaded tractor.
    30 Jan 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4773) | Send Message
     
    I am not surprised at the "sluggishness"..... I am glad the system seems to work. IMO, I would expect there is applications for this small engine but the real icing will be combined with a larger engine to perform as well or better than current OTR trucks.
    30 Jan 2013, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    Great news John. Thanks to Bwarneke for getting this going too!

     

    I guess it's logical they "babied the batteries" after their prior experience. I'm looking forward to hearing just how far they can push them. I believe an "official" report of those results will have a nice effect on public and market awareness of Axion.

     

    My gut feeling is that they'll see results that suggest routes with a little more demanding terrain are feasible without getting to the marginal performance areas.

     

    An alternative is fewer batteries/truck (Horrors! :-)) for the less demanding routes. But this would truly be a case of "we can make that up in volume". Maybe we should find a way to invest in the glider kits too! :-))

     

    Thanks for making the trip and keeping us updated!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    John: OT.

     

    Somewhere down the road I would be interested to know if they've considered (well, better for future consideration really) some of the motors from UQM. They've recently announced some higher-output "commercial" truck motors that might be suitable. Here's a couple with 664 ft. lbs and 479 ft. lbs of torque. Peak HP is 268 and 201 for these motors. Continuous 115 & 134 HP.

     

    http://bit.ly/Vvt2Zc

     

    ISTR a 220 version being announced recently as well.

     

    Ah, here it is. "... Delivering a maximum output of 220kW, and 120kW on a continuous basis". ~295 peak and 160 continuous HP.

     

    http://bit.ly/IdHgWY

     

    EDIT: 516 ft. lbs. of torque, calculated from another PR.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    Here's the link to the other PR that shows 700 nm of torque.

     

    http://bit.ly/QmSBXI

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    LT: keep in mind it's not a function of motor sizing for short-term acceleration or hill climbs since the power is from an electric motor and battery bank.

     

    As JP mentioned, the transmission was geared expecting rising HP (and torque of course) with rising RPM.

     

    Re-gearing to match the motor output might be all that's needed.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    John and bwarneke,
    Thanks for making the trip and for your informative reports.
    30 Jan 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    JOhn - good news, bad news.

     

    What ePower may need is a BETTER ELECTRIC MOTOR, one that provides torque/speed curves not seen by the likes of standard commercial electric motors. And yes, that would be the Chorus Motor http://bit.ly/HCMQOS . Of course Chorus, like Axion, have there attention focused on a specific market(s) ( http:// http://www.wheeltug.gi ) and may not be interested in any diversions.

     

    So, just maybe, when ePower is disappointed by electric motor after electric motor and/or transmission after transmission, they can give the best electric motor a looksee, and bump the 10, while reducing the power electronics requirements and demands on the battery, for even better overall performance with fewer if not none "dogsishness" moments.
    30 Jan 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    HTL, et.al: as you may note in the photo for this UQM electric motor the connection port for the liquid cooling system. The Chorusmotor does not require liquid cooling to do it's thing; hence, no pump, hoses or lines, and of course, no radiator requirements, and of course no liquids running thru or around the electric motor. Neat.
    30 Jan 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    NJB: If I could find some specs on their web site I might get impressed a lot more. I tried to go read some old PR to see if I could find some and it requested a user name and password.

     

    I think I'll be biased to something that I can evaluate with more than just what I can see there.

     

    As to the cooling, UQM manufactures their own controllers and also, IIRC, manages energizing of the armature and windings (I'm short of the correct words ATM) to provide torque and HP meeting demand in the application. By adding cooling they can meet demands for higher power in smaller packages. Whether they hold a significant advantage over competing products, I can't say since I don't follow that closely.

     

    I presume they could make a larger motor w/o cooling.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4474) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love & nakedjaybird ... Leave my UQM daydreams alone. Even "IF" a UQM motor needed cooling, there is a diesel that also needs cooling. Can't those components just try to get along ... and share.

     

    On another side note question; Why does an electric driven truck need a transmission? I read this mention in one of John's comments and wondered. Locomotives are geared (ex. 72:1) for zero to a governed maximum speed. Anyway, I'll go back & refresh myself of the info later
    30 Jan 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2699) | Send Message
     
    drich - that's one of my "hidden" points: the Chorus Motor application may not need a transmission.

     

    Re. HTL's search for website specs (assuming he was referring to Chorus, I'll take a closer look).

     

    In the meantime, for those interested, the http://bit.ly/HCMQOS website discusses in a general way the chorus cars types of hybrids and even the ICE s/s. I repeat, general points; not motor specs.

     

    Here's the Chorus Technology source:

     

    http://bit.ly/VWRorn

     

    Somewhat greek for the uninitiated!
    30 Jan 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    DRich: IIRC "traditional" motors have max torque a zero RPM and it falls off rapidly from there, more or less matching current draw.

     

    One of the things UQM did was manage the timing and energy level of the parts with a programmable controller that keeps a near-maximum torque flat throughout their RPM range, if desired.

     

    On this next I'm unsure, but ISTR that they do share the coolant with what's already in a vehicle if there is a cooling system.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4474) | Send Message
     
    >nakedjaybird ... If I read that torque curve correctly, I believe your Chorus motor would not make a really good hill climber, at speed, without a transmission. Seems designed to just get a tremendous load rolling at low speed all by itself. Contrast & compare to a traction motor for locomotives, page 7 in link below.

     

    http://bit.ly/WBuKDj
    30 Jan 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    NJB: Thanks - off to peek at it now.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    LT, HTL - Is it possible drawing more energy from the batteries might be all that is needed? Drawing power to 10.5V leaves most of the stored energy in the battery.

     

    Showing my ignorance with an assumed straight line rate of energy depletion, 10.5V suggests 87.5% residual SoC on a 12V battery and 65.6% SoC on a 16V battery. Drawing power down to 5V should shrink the 35 - 55 "dog" zone quite a bit.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4773) | Send Message
     
    It will definitely help, how much I am not sure. I understand them babying the batteries around to begin with as they test the entire system.
    If/when this develops into sales, I will do more research on the mkt. size...until then, I don't think 190 h.p. is going to satisfy most drivers. I know they are doing this to begin with as it will show the highest efficiency obtainable. Later I hope the experiment with bigger engines.
    I would really like to see some sales/fleet tests by summer happen here. It could be a big mkt.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    D, I sorta had the same reaction: ...T-T-T-Transmission???
    30 Jan 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure I've read that a series hybrid does not need a transmission.
    But perhaps thats not the case for ePower.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2218) | Send Message
     
    The challenge with utilizing the low voltages is the size of wiring necessary. If they cold dynamically change the wiring it may be overcome.

     

    Example: Four batteries in parallel produce 10-14 volts. When voltage drops to 8 v, make it two banks of two batteries producing 16 volts. When it drops to 8 v again, put all four batteries in series producing 16 v.

     

    Obviously the actual voltage used for the traction motors are likely to be 200 volts or higher; this is just a simplified example.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2218) | Send Message
     
    D, ditto
    30 Jan 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: I think DRich might be able to answer this better. There's limits on any motor and we don't know what motor they use. We do know that limits wouldn't necessarily be a function of state of charge though - it's more likely they limited the dynamic discharge rate as part of the "babying" effort. If the motor can take more amperage (doubtful?) we have a pretty good chance that the PbC can deliver it without harm. Duration of a higher-rate discharge might draw the batteries down further than they wanted to risk this early in the testing.

     

    I recall DRich talking about "power factors" and I'm guessing that's related to what they can do with the battery, converters/inverters and motor combination.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: unlike for passenger autos, easily available motors might not be powerful enough for a loaded class 8 unless they had multiples, e.g., one for each axle end. This could get quite expensive (motors, more complex wiring, programming control for each individual motor - optional? - etc.). A standard transmission from any of the major manufacturers would likely be much less expensive and get the job done. It also fits with what they've already designed in for the motor they selected. Maintenance might also be lower?

     

    Remember JP's mantra "the green in their wallet ... " certainly applies here.

     

    I *think*,
    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting. Thanks, Rick.
    30 Jan 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    Again, very interesting. Thanks, HTL.
    30 Jan 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1287) | Send Message
     
    I bet you are right, HTL. Has to be a way to save money. While relying on a transmission will presumably cost them a bit of fuel efficiency, its likely the right choice.
    30 Jan 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4474) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... OK, I went back to the ePower patent and checked. There is no transmission as people normally think about it. The rear differential must be a multi-speed geared mechanism. Totally normal in trucks. I have fond memories of dump I used to drive with a 2-speed rear-end that required double clutch manual shifting.

     

    It's the s@#$@'s that the wait goes on.
    30 Jan 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17577) | Send Message
     
    DRich: as a kid I used to work with my uncles in a rock quarry and drove a '49 ford p/u with a granny tranny that required double-clutching.

     

    Great fun and I developed an "ear" for doing that. To this day I shift many times with disengaging the clutch on up-shifts. harder to do on down-shifts though. I think a good part of my "ear" has lost its acuity.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D, though John did say specifically: "...five speed automatic transmission they're using is an off-the-shelf unit that's geared for diesel..."
    I don't know enough to figure whether that's in the rear-end or not, but it occurs to me that because ePower is retrofitting, and not building from the ground up, that necessarily, they're probably going to have to stick to conventional setup as much as possible in order to minimize the scope of retrofit.. IE no in-wheel hub motors, exotic CVTs etc...
    30 Jan 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4474) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... The patent makes no mention of any mechanical linkage prior to the transaxle. In fact, it makes the point of the motor not being attached to a transmission. The idea of a transmission being between the engine & generator is not out of the question. There is a small locomotive rebuilder, Knoxville Locomotive Works I believe, that advertises such a device for fuel conservation.
    30 Jan 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    D... sounds like I need to look at the patent as well, which I haven't since it was first posted... but is it possible the patent and the actual truck might not be the same configuration? just a thought, but probably unlikely I'm sure.. Putting the transmission between the engine and generator (5 speed?) --- just sounds out there to me, but I guess. In any case, sounds like what we both need is to hear more from those that have been actually hands- and eyes-on in order to gain more clarity...
    30 Jan 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    "is it possible the patent and the actual truck might not be the same configuration?"

     

    Since the patent specifically cites flooded lead acid batteries, I would say it is a certainty that the truck now fitted with PbCs is not the same configuration.
    30 Jan 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3354) | Send Message
     
    different to the point they added a transmission? ;)
    30 Jan 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Keyboard
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    Likewise Teslas have direct electrical motor drive without a multi-ratio transmission. But it wasn't trivial for them: the original Tesla Roadster was prototyped with 2 gear ratios as I recall.

     

    The differences are:

     

    Cars have several times the power/weight ratio of trucks. Higher specific power allows a drive ratio that favors higher speeds while maintaining enough low speed torque.

     

    Locomotives should need less low speed torque than trucks for two reasons, explaining their lack of a multi-speed transmission.

     

    Locomotives can leisurely start moving, bit by bit from a stop without being bothered by traffic.
    Second, locomotives would require reduced zero-speed starting torque due to reduced starting friction from their use of steel vs rubber wheels. (I wonder if this point could be somewhat countered by their traditional use of journal bearings for rail axles...have they changed to some variation of roller bearings...feel free to explicate.)

     

    A beefier electric motor would help get rid of that annoying transmission which adds complexity and parts. (Tesla got rid of their transmission using improved electric motor drive circuits.) It would also address the middle and high speed acceleration issue reported by our emissaries.

     

    Finally, a stronger motor would mean that the number of PbC batteries per truck would not decline as Axion helpfully suggested was possible under earlier assumptions. If anything a few more batteries could only help. Switching customer dollar flow from funding that annoying transmission to funding more PbC (c) batteries without changing the customer price of the ePower product is a good thing.

     

    Ps.
    Is there a technical faq somewhere for posters? Mine rarely appear immediately below and indented from the replied-to post. Thanks.
    30 Jan 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    "Is there a technical faq somewhere for posters? Mine rarely appear immediately below and indented from the replied-to post. "

     

    FWIW, I'm not aware of any technical faq for SA message boards that address the posting issues raised. Many of my posts also do not follow the post responded to and are missing the level of desired indentation. In many instances, I find that others have also responded to the same post I have replied to but got their messages posted before I completed drafting my own.
    30 Jan 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2218) | Send Message
     
    D-inv & Keyboard, the indenting does not go to multiple levels. Often it looks like a post is placed randomly. I always try to identify the person I am responding to.
    30 Jan 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    At $40 per percentage point saved and savings of 15%, we have cost of $600. :-) But, is that $40 per percentage point saved on highway and a further $40 per percentage point saved city? If so, that cost rises to $1,160.
    29 Jan 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I sure wouldn't read it that way.
    29 Jan 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    I like this system compared to AGM and an electric starter.

     

    Mazda Skyactiv plans revealed

     

    "Skyactiv technology already underpins the CX-5 SUV and recently launched 6 saloon and Tourer, but Mazda will replace the rest of the cars in its range over the next couple of years.

     

    These new cars will all benefit from the full suite of Skyactiv measures, which include lightweight body construction and efficient engines and transmissions."

     

    "The company has also confirmed that it views electric cars as part of its future, with a spokesman saying that it views battery power as the third stage of its efficient-technology plan. The first of this plan was stop-start tech, the second was the Skyactiv range of engines and the third remains electric. Mazda has not yet confirmed a timescale for when it might release electric cars however."

     

    http://bit.ly/XfF0BZ

     

    "When a driver stops at a traffic light or intersection, the car's engine automatically switches off, and restarts when the driver wants to move. This start-stop system prevents engine idling.

     

    Idling stop systems generally use the starter motor to restart the engine. The i-stop system, however, uses a "combustion start method" to restart the engine. It injects fuel directly into a cylinder of the stopped engine and ignites it to force the piston down. Because the combustion start method requires the pistons to be halted in the optimum position when the engine is stopped, this system requires technology capable of accurately detecting and controlling piston positions.

     

    The starter motor is operated to assist engine restarting, but using mainly combustion power for restarting requires less time and reduces power consumption.

     

    This unique technology achieves an engine restart time of 0.35 seconds, the best in its class (automatic transmission vehicles, based on in-house measurements). As the engine starts, the brake is immediately released and the car can move again quickly. Due to the rapid restart, this system does not inconvenience the driver, which is vital in situations such as turning across an oncoming lane of traffic at a traffic light."

     

    http://bit.ly/Wwm3NM
    29 Jan 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    "This unique technology achieves an engine restart time of 0.35 seconds, ...."

     

    Perhaps Mazda's implementation of 'combustion start' is unique, but IINM German and US auto OEMs have looked at and possibly tested variants on 'combustion start'.
    29 Jan 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4046) | Send Message
     
    Question for iind, other axionistas fluent in industrial engineering.
    http://bit.ly/VoDNsP describes a new diesel engine design moving from drawing boards to prototype model. What do you consider it's odds for progression to production and timeline for achievement of scale if it is successful?
    29 Jan 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9081) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I'm not that knowledgeable on power trains.so I'd not be a good source to query about the odds to commercial production. From a commercial launch standpoint I'd guess 4 years + out if the tech. pans out but again I'm only guessing based on a completely different expertise base. Sorry I can't help more.

     

    Engine platforms are also very expensive but if the UK military wants it that could help quite a bit. Their new source of technical support through Richardo will also improve the odds.