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  • I WINNNN!!!!
    30 Jan 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Yea! was rooting for you!
    30 Jan 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Wow a 2nd 2nd.
    30 Jan 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Dr Bueil, we have all seen that diagram with the Lead-acid battery (energy) in the upper left hand corner, the Asymmetrical capacitor (power) in the upper right and the Ultra battery centered below showing its split Pb+C negative electrode. With the idea being that the UB offers the best of both worlds.

     

    My first thought was why did they split the electrode? Why not just make every other cell a PbC cell if you are going to do it in the same case? Or better yet, why not just parallel the 30HT PbC with the 30HT AGM? There is a voltage difference and a difference in resistance but that also exists (assumption) on the split electrode.

     

    The PbC reminds me of the high speed memory cache we used with traditional memory way back when. I find it a little odd that we are not pairing the PbC with other AGM's in a similar fashion. We can make our own UB can we not? And in a variety of configurations (2 PbC + 1 AGM or visa versa). Care to share your thoughts on this...
    30 Jan 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, am thinking in parallel suffers the issues Dr. B was referring to, but in series could be an advantageous arrangement: enhanced total energy, airport test issues, etc, perhaps even within the same case as you mention. I'm fairly confident though that Axion must have considered these variations, yet still decided that the pure PbC was the best way to go..
    30 Jan 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • 4 & Tim: I have a hard time imagining how this would work if the AGM and PbC are electrically connected. Very quickly a voltage imbalance should occur, I *think*, and cause all sorts of additional expense to manage it and/or tough problems to solve.

     

    I suspect we lose the advantages of both.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL: you posted: "I have a hard time imagining how this would work if the AGM and PbC are electrically connected. Very quickly a voltage imbalance should occur, I *think*, and cause all sorts of additional expense to manage it and/or tough problems to solve."

     

    That is also my take.

     

    I also agree with EBueil that the two completely different electrodes, electrically hard connected, just can't work as advertised. Could it be "Marketing Engineering" at work?

     

    From a recent Dilbert strip:

     

    Vendor sales person says: " Out XP37 is the only product that can fill your requirement"

     

    Dilbert: "alright, we will buy it"

     

    Salesman looks at his I-palm and then says, "we are out of stock of the XP37...... The XP32 should work fine".

     

    That is what I see happening when the battery vendor says; "our fancy and expensive AGM battery will work great in your application". Based on there being nothing in the AGM battery specification that says it WON'T work in that application!

     

    Experimental evidence doesn't lie. Salesmen do.
    30 Jan 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Very good point. Axion's original patent claims a carbon negative electrode that includes leads. Yes, Axion could easily add carbon negative electrodes to lead negative electrodes. However, this doesn't work.

     

    Axion really needs to show this conclusively. Also - please see extensive posts on other concentrators...
    5 Feb 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Regarding Smart Meters: This became a major issue here in Ashland OR this past year. Many city council meetings were devoted to it, and a good number of people wrote letters to the editor, sharing how they felt their health was dramatically affected after they were installed on their homes. Lots of passionate debate on both sides of the issue, but it appeared there's at least a small percentage of people who are very sensitive to smart meter EMFs, creating insomnia, headaches, and worse.

     

    Apparently, these meters send out thousands of signals a day, so that when the meter reader drives by to get a reading, they can pick up the signal right away. The electric utility here is run by the City of Ashland, and in the end, the city council decided to replace smart meters in homes where they were not wanted, at no charge.
    30 Jan 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Wayne...well sort of, if you know what I mean.

     

    I've also been reading some of the same health risks involved with smart meters. I have so many microwave signals reboanting around my home that I no longer have to go to Honduras to get a tan ;-)

     

    Over on QuickChat yesterday, I put up a link about a new iPhone app that will flush your toilet if you forget to do so. The proctologists must be loving it, as I wonder if this new app increases the chance of getting prostrate cancer.

     

    I need to buy a cabin.
    30 Jan 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • "I need to buy a cabin. "

     

    :-) Add a suit made of the same material as your TFH.
    30 Jan 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • WinO wrote: "it appeared there's at least a small percentage of people who are very sensitive to smart meter EMFs, creating insomnia, headaches, and worse."

     

    Right. But the problems they have don't get any better if the meter RF is turned OFF without their knowledge.

     

    The meters either use RF on the power wires, which causes very little RF to radiate, or they use a system akin to WiFi. WiFi is ubiquitous and the neighbor's set top box is probably producing as much RF as the Smart meter on the "victim's" outside wall.

     

    "it appeared there's at least a small percentage of people.." who are just strange :-) Ask any competent doctor of the mind.
    30 Jan 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, You had me fooled with your shortened moniker for WayneinOregon. Given the conversation a few days ago I figured we might have a new short term troll. I thought they picked up the moniker "WineO".

     

    Jeez, This stock is driving me crazy perhaps? 8-p
    30 Jan 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: Professional help is available in most cities. Just look for "Investors Anonymous" in the directory ;-)
    30 Jan 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Last time I looked into it. The claim was you were getting far more radiation from computer WiFi than Cellphones or your smart meter.
    Consider being in a restaurant or cafe when someone downloads Video. Hundreds of times the data of a conversation.

     

    How many routers are baking me from the neighbors?
    Even laundromats have WiFi.

     

    They have removed WiFi and gone back to having cords all over in classrooms for this reason.

     

    WiFi Radiation in Classrooms May Be as Dangerous as Microwave Weapons

     

    http://bit.ly/Vp0Qlt

     

    The idea of putting electrical devices (ear-buds) basically inside your head is a good one too.
    Not to mention electric vehicles including hybrids.

     

    Basically if these things are 1/10,000 of what people fear, we are all doomed.
    That's your cheery thought for the day. LOL
    30 Jan 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • >froggey77 ... Next up ... Microbial Rain.
    30 Jan 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Oh, you think that's funny? Well: http://bit.ly/VtZBn1
    30 Jan 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, I bend in the appropriate direction in light of your suggestion. Does it come with a back rub if someone else is paying?

     

    See, I'm still ignoring the obvious! :(
    31 Jan 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • 48: Wow! That's where I want my cabin...floating around in the troposhere. Incredible stuff. All I have to do is have an inviting porch and a fine mesh casting net, and from that I can get all the tasty morsels up there life has to offer.

     

    Hey George Jetson, I just dangled out my net and caught a 1 millgram diometric record breaker. Come on over for the 1 second microwaved BBQ! Tasty.
    31 Jan 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • I had a smart meter put on my house. It works using the cellualar network with the same radio frequency as any cell phone. I don't see how anyone's health could be affected by one more cellular signal among the thousands that surround us everywhere.

     

    I like the smart meter. It lets me go online from anywhere and set the temperature of my house. So if I go on vacation and forget to turn up the thermostat, I can do it from my smartphone at the airport.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • That mid-blend fund I was tracking on Morningstar, that had around 5.4M shares in the spring of last year, now has a big fat 0 number of shares.

     

    http://bit.ly/14sl6IL
    30 Jan 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Not many funds left... I take it that Iverness is the attorneys.

     

    Blackrock ... maybe, maybe not .... since they don't have to report anymore.
    30 Jan 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know about Inverness, those holdings have been the same for about a year and a half now. I have always gone with the assumption that that mid-blend fund was the Manatuck hill fund; Q, BR and SS were always accounted for under institutions.

     

    Either way, yeah, pretty much all retail holders, perhaps a few specialty funds out there under the radar.
    30 Jan 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Funds exiting without a price collapse shows there is some support. Hopefully were aren't all suckers here though.
    30 Jan 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • >zoook: the only poker wisdom I know:

     

    If you don't know who the sucker at the table is, it's you!

     

    Problem is we have such a large table!
    31 Jan 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • whoooweeee.
    That is such a great one liner. I must be allowed to borrow it.
    31 Jan 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Here's the movie reference, and use in the investment article!

     

    Who's The Sucker At The Table?
    July 03, 2012

     

    http://bit.ly/XXV22u
    1 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • 1/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30500, Vol 159470, AvTrSz: 4832
    Min. Pr: 0.3155, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3236
    # Buys, Shares: 12 52720, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3244
    # Sells, Shares: 21 106750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3232
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.02 (33.1% “buys”), DlyShts 8500 (5.33%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.96%

     

    On the traditional TA front, I'm comforted that it's behaving as expected – today a 4.596% spread with increasing volume matches my Monday speculation that “I believe there's a decent chance we'll have a little pause here and maybe some volatility, in a day or two(?), with a little push to that $0.30 area again and a little overshoot (seems to be common)”. Part 1 is happening, which is a relief since Tuesday surprised me with a (premature?) bounce up with no appreciable rise in volume.

     

    We have a lower high and low on rising volume and the low touched exactly, AFAICT, the potential new rising support. It's still only potential though and I don't have confidence yet that it is defining a new rising trading channel. If things go as I think, we should trade below this back to the older rising support, currently ~$0.30, and maybe a little overshoot.

     

    The oscillators I watch continue mixed with some moving towards a neutral stance and others weakening a bit.

     

    On my experimental stuff, not much change – very small short sales volume and percentage, still very small average trade size, buy:sell down continuing the vacillation around the “normal” that suggests uncertainty, volume still low even though up from yesterday, and VWAP, $0.3236 finally dropped below the falling 200-day SMA VWAP of $0.3239. It looks like that will try to drag us lower along with the other weakening indicators. My experimental 13-period lower Bollinger suggests another two or three days of price weakening if everything behaves as has been common in the past.

     

    My experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken. However, the patterns do seem similar in many respects to the set ups before signaling a rise that were seen in the past. All we can do is wait and see. These have always taken a while to develop.

     

    I do think this down movement is short-term as I do expect that we'll start another leg up once we drop to the rising support again. Nothing technical says this yet – just my best SWAG combining everything.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • As always thanks HTL. Good news be damned.
    30 Jan 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Maroney sent me a copy documents he received in response to an FOIA request for the Ultrabattery Smart Grid Demonstration Grant. I have not had time to review or study the package, but I have uploaded it to my Dropbox for those who want do some digging.

     

    http://bit.ly/X93Jqc

     

    I know I told everybody I'd write an Instablog on the ePower visit, but my flights home got all screwed up and my sweetie pie had a long list of chores for me to do when I got home.

     

    I promise I'll work on it first thing tomorrow morning.
    30 Jan 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • Wow,
    Dr. Ed Buiel just joins us an we have a 146 page homework assignment for him to read. Nice :-)

     

    Thanks for the digging Stefan. Your hard work benefits all of us.
    31 Jan 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. I only had a chance to skim the document, but did not see anything earth shattering.

     

    No problem, Futurist. I wish the documents from the FRA would come back.
    31 Jan 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Skimming the doc now. . .
    Might be useful if one could read the 12 month Data Analysis report due 4/9/12 (see page 11). . .
    Looks like a 24 month report will be due in April of this year and a final Technical/Scientific Report in November of 2013.
    31 Jan 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • I take that back, the 12 month report is here said to be due in July 2013.
    http://1.usa.gov/XWDJz4
    31 Jan 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • Wow - the information here is really extensive. I'm also impressed with the level of work you guys are will to put in. Lot's more work to do on my side but enjoyable.
    5 Feb 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • One Lithium oriented approach being testing in Toronto Community Energy Storage (see video too)

     

    http://bit.ly/YFBi9T

     

    References: http://bit.ly/VtKHwM

     

    Appears to use Dow Kokam's cells:
    http://bit.ly/YFBkP8

     

    (via http://www.ecamion.com )
    30 Jan 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • ""it appeared there's at least a small percentage of people.." who are just strange :-) Ask any competent doctor of the mind."

     

    Thousands of smart meters were installed in Ashlanders' homes without their knowledge. A number of people wrote/testified that when they found out about this, they were able to trace the start of their health difficulties to the time of these installations. And their health improved when the meters were removed. -- I've read/heard all sides of this issue. Everybody has their own biases. Mine is to believe people's experiences, especially when so many are so similar. -- This topic is only connected tangentially to the purpose of the APC, so I won't comment any further.
    31 Jan 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • WO
    Personally I don't get motion sickness from riding in cars. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
    Heck I've even known a dog who got sick on long car rides.

     

    OTOH
    I see it increasing in the future.

     

    A guy who did dietary tests on rats, did not consider a diet a success until the 6 generation of healthy rats was born.

     

    Pottenger studied cats and diet said: 'it takes four generations of good diet to counteract one generation of bad diet.'

     

    We're doomed or we're not. I can't see us turning back now.
    31 Jan 2013, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • Ford sales:
    http://bloom.bg/12bAkmL
    31 Jan 2013, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • Re-Post
    I placed this post late last night on the last concentrator. Just some quick calculations for the E-Power truck. However, I'm thinking since this is a "flatland" truck, the average mpg of a regular truck would probably be 8 mpg. his would cut in half the gas savings ( and make the payback longer) if it only goes from 8mpg to 10 mpg. This is why the test data is so important.

     

    "So as I figure it the math looks like this on class 8 trucks.

     

    3 Million class 8 trucks roam the country.
    1 Million of them are over 5 years old and need an overhaul that cost $35,000.
    For $70,000 they can have a hybrid overhaul that gets them 10 mpg instead of 6 mpg ( at a minimum).

     

    At 250,000 miles per year they save 16,000 gallons of diesel fuel.
    At $3.50 per gallon that is $56,000 per year. A hell of a payback.

     

    Now I realize that not all trucks travel on flatter terrain. But if only 250,000 of them per year need a hybrid overhaul at 50 batteries per truck it is 12,500,000 batteries. Gee. Even if only 25 batteries per truck it is 6,000,000 batteries.

     

    If one then calculates the new trucks that can be built with this technology. Wait, wait, This is to much.

     

    We believe the PbC retails for $300-$400 per battery in quantity.

     

    I love barroom napkin calculations, and how they fail, but this one looks good for Axion.

     

    Unfortunately Axions success will depend on how the truck drivers like the hybrid system. The batteries won't matter."
    31 Jan 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • One of the points I made in the Instablog is critically important. ePower doesn't expect trucks to come in for retrofits until they're out of warranty and ready for a major overhaul that would currently cost $50,000 to $60,000 and offer no future fuel savings. When you factor in the salvage value of the old engine and transmission that won't be replaced, they're currently thinking the retrofit kit and installation labor will basically be a wash.

     

    ePower estimates that their retrofit will save the average owner about $36,700 a year on fuel. If the owners are given a choice between roughly equivalent capital costs and there's one alternative that will add over $35K to the bottom line the choice seems pretty obvious.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, indeed. Assuming the reliability is the same.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • The components they're using right now are among the best in the world. These are heavy duty industrial generators and motors with long histories of reliable service. Except for battery problems, the trucks have been very reliable in the hands of the end user.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Thats very good to hear.
    31 Jan 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist; I am an over the road trucker with ten years experience. A more realistic annual mileage per truck is in the 110,000 to 130,000 mile range. Of course during the Great Recession freight volume dropped considerably. Perhaps a hard running team operation could do 200k miles per year. Federal DOT hours of service regulations make it impossible for a single driver to do more than 3000 miles per week.
    5 Feb 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Brian, Welcome...

     

    You are right on with your solo figures but its pretty easy for a team running for one of the major carriers to do 5k miles a week or close to 250k a year. Although having done that myself for a year I will leave that highway burning for the younsters...
    5 Feb 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Brian,
    Thanks for the info. This is why I use barroom napkins for all my calculations. Simply throw it away and do another.

     

    My math meant nothing compared to the post that proved that even a 1 mpg improvement in mpg would mean a whopper of a difference to the bottom line profit of a trucking company.

     

    Our newer calculations would show that a $70,000 retrofit would only be $10,000 more than an overhaul.

     

    At 125,000 miles per year a company would save $25,000 per year in fuel. Thats a 6 month payback and money well spent.
    5 Feb 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • In evaluating market potential for hybrid trucks carrying PbCs one needs to keep in mind that the tremendously short payback period implied for companies operating trucks at 100k - 200k miles per year does not apply to those with lower annual mileage operations.

     

    Industry/government statistics indicate about 190,000 new class 8 semi-trucks are sold annually. But, statistics published in a "Popular Mechanics" article recently referred for APC info suggest only a small fraction of those trucks will register a 100k or more miles per year.

     

    Statistics of note include:
    -- average annual mileage for all class 8 vehicles is ~45,000
    -- average annual mileage for long distance class 8s is ~100,000
    -- 90% of trucking firms/owners operate less than 6 class 8 vehicles.

     

    Class 8 hybrid truck market potential with 6 month payback is not large.
    5 Feb 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Good points D-Inv,
    The universe gets much greater if you look at a 2 year payback being sufficient to make the change to a hybrid (45,000 miles per year). I20,000 trucks out of 1 Million overhauls per year equals 1 million batteries per year. It doesn't take a lot of trucks to help Axion or e-Power
    5 Feb 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, About a dozen soon would do wonders.
    5 Feb 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • ii,
    Isn't that true
    5 Feb 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • iind > even two or three would be very encouraging. OTOH, I have the perception that ePower is really in no hurry. I've been wondering if some in that orbit are working at building Axion positions before advancing to the repeat orders.
    5 Feb 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, I wouldn't say ePower isn't in a hurry based on what information I've seen. Remember that the PbC is not a direct replacement for AGM. There are different systems that need to be designed in with the BMS being a primary redesign. We also need to respect that given the opportunity ePower is seeing on the PbC vs lithium ion front they would be wise to respect the slow ramp in integrating the devices to make sure they collect data and respect it's limitations along with its advantages. Phrases like "Hurry up and wait" and "Haste makes waste" surely apply in engineered systems.

     

    I wouldn't put ePower in the same category as NSC and BMW on the speed to market just yet. Well we;re anxious so we'd tend to do it anyway but let's try to be fair.

     

    The temptation to buy into success for people behind the scenes has to be quite a temptation. That's why a few rich people get thrown in jail. Now that's Martha Stewart livin'.
    6 Feb 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • As a non-engineer I'm confident that I don't fully appreciate the difficulties of working engineers and the many nuances/corollaries of Murphy's Law they encounter. That said, I have a great deal of difficulty comprehending why any competently managed business would order, and take delivery of, 60 PbC batteries without making prior provision for addressing differences between those devices and the batteries in use at the time.

     

    TG said in the November cc that PbCs had been shipped Nov. 7. JP reports that by end-January the PbCs are installed on a truck with a BMS operating in the 11v - 10V range that has pulled less than a full load. IINM, those voltage parameters more or less apply to a BMS for AGMs. Implementation of a PbC BMS had only just begun if it had begun at all.
    6 Feb 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • ePower spent about $20,000 to buy the batteries. The costs of fully modeling a system and taking all potential variables into account would have cost them more and provided less useful information. Sometimes the cheapest route through the development maze is to buy the better product and figure out the differences in real time as you learn how the devices work in your prototype.

     

    Axion's original purchase of the New Castle facility is a perfect example. The staff had dozens of ideas they wanted to try. The cheapest way to test those ideas was to buy an existing plant that the technical team could use a prototyping facility. Studies are good but hands on experience is always better.
    6 Feb 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, I can't assume all the things that have transpired to transition the ePower app. from AGM to PbC. I will say that considerable engineering probably occurred before we knew about the order. I would have expected initial hardware revisions and software code to have been ordered or planned out before committing 20k USD to a battery order. Given customer support requirements and hardware limitations they might have started out debugging some of the system on the floor with component sets as well. Anyway, Don't know the detail but having launched many programs all the way up to millions of USD to support one application I can tell you I'm pretty pleased with hearing a couple motivated inquisitive guys from out group took a road trip in this time frame. No matter how much we want to start a family gestation has it's time frame and premature births tend to carry more risks and associated costs.

     

    All signs are that this mission is not a lumbering NSC style launch. But it's not planned as such. The method they are using is more controlled implementation which is more suitable given their unit program size, risks and available resources.
    6 Feb 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Here's an interesting note (hope it hasn't been posted already): Elon Musk says 787 battery fundamentally unsafe.

     

    http://bit.ly/XgKz3d
    31 Jan 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • I guess hubris now has a first name.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • My Instablog on Tuesday's ePower visit is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I look forward to answering as many questions as I can and assume that bwarneke will chime in with his thoughts and observations as time permits.
    31 Jan 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • John, thinking about JAK's post about one fund exiting, It seems we had one more "big ugly" (albeit a "mini-me" version) than we anticipated. I wish we had a time-frame for their exit.

     

    http://bit.ly/UGfqrm

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Blackrock reported ownership of 6.1 million shares at December 31 of last year and 5.2 million shares at March 30th. Manatuck Hill started with 7.2 million shares in December 2009 and the manager who bought Axion for them left in the spring of 2012. I don't know whether the Morningstar number was a reference to Blackrock or Manatuck Hill, but I've previously speculated that both funds exited during 2012.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I don't think the Morningstar information adds any more clarity.
    31 Jan 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Lots of good news today. Here is a very interesting insider's view of the US utility industry in transition. It isn't only in Germany where the utility business is changing dramatically.

     

    http://bit.ly/UGEC0U

     

    "Our industry and nation has seen remarkable and largely unexpected changes in the last five years," said Rogers in his keynote address at the New York City forum. "That is surprising for our industry. … We build power plants for 40 to 60 years, and now all of a sudden there are dramatic changes that change how we think about our regulatory model, our business model and the way forward. Now we have to turn even faster than we have in the past."
    (even faster, LOL)
    "Eschewing the expression "smart grid," Rogers sees intelligent utility networks remaking electricity delivery.

     

    "You have seen the rise in the digital grid, the deployment in two-way communication, moving from analog to digital. I don't use the word smart grid. The reality is smart grid has been oversold and overhyped. My belief is digital grid will change how we do business. It will improve our business and lead to efficient innovation on our system," Rogers said.

     

    The emergence of new technologies has led to productivity gains that are putting downward pressure on the demand for electricity, he added. While the clean-tech "bubble has burst" with venture capitalists and private equity firms "rethinking" their approach, "people are going to come at it with less hype and more focus, and they are going to pick opportunities in a more careful way."

     

    The result of new energy efficiencies, coal retirements and less demand is already being felt in the U.S.

     

    "We are on track to meet President [Barack] Obama's 2009 pledge to reduce 2020 emissions by 17% from 2005 levels," Rogers said. "In fact, as a country, we are back to where we were in 1992, and on a per capita basis, we are back to where we were in 1960 in terms of emissions of CO2."

     

    Dramatic drops in solar prices from oversupply are not over, Rogers said. Disputing theories that Moore's Law, an expression that predicts rapid evolution in transistor chips, applies to solar, Rogers says prices will also "come down as the technologies evolve and with the ability to do installations in a lower cost way."

     

    Solar is a primary driver of disintermediation, Rogers told SNL Energy following his speech.
    31 Jan 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Not sure if this Road & Track S/S article from last year was ever posted, but it has a line about BMW and Axion:

     

    "What about wearing out the starter or battery? . . . There's also potential for enhanced energy storage: ultracapacitors being one concept, lead-carbon battery technology another. BMW has teamed with Axion Power investigating such a Pb-C alternative to today's AGM (absorbed glass mat) battery. Its current Auto Start Stop continues with the latter technology."

     

    http://bit.ly/11b0MxD
    31 Jan 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane: ""In fact, as a country, we are back to where we were in 1992, and on a per capita basis, we are back to where we were in 1960 in terms of emissions of CO2".

     

    Doesn't matter - some parties that seem influential will not be happy until we are back to "anthro" levels of the 1400's.

     

    "Enough" is never "enough".

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • "Doesn't matter - some parties that seem influential will not be happy until we are back to "anthro" levels of the 1400's."

     

    :-) In future whenever I encounter a personality trumpeting that humanity is a threat to nature, I will be sorely tasked to constrain myself from from asking if that personality has considered eliminating itself in the interest of nature (and the public good).
    31 Jan 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: Possible response scenarios include ...

     

    "Well I was going to close the garage and turn on the car but that would harm the environment".

     

    "I was going to shoot myself but I can't buy a gun (arrest record from demonstrations)".

     

    "I was going to overdose but all I could legally get was some Mary J ... got any brownies I can bum?".

     

    etc., etc, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • "sorely tasked to constrain myself from from asking if that personality has considered eliminating itself in the interest of nature (and the public good)."

     

    Call it the Volunteers for Darwin Awards campaign.
    31 Jan 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Connecticut keeps doing interesting energy related things ...

     

    CEFIA Launches C&I Clean Energy Financing Program

     

    January 24, 2013
    Supporting Connecticut Businesses and Promoting Job Growth

     

    Rocky Hill, Conn., January 24, 2013 — The Clean Energy Finance and Investment Authority (CEFIA) announced today the launch of the Commercial and Industrial Property Assessed Clean Energy (C-PACE) Program, a new financial product to support building owners seeking low-cost, long-term, upfront financing for clean energy upgrades.

     

    C-PACE is an integral part of the State’s Energize Connecticut initiative, which is intended to help consumers save money and use clean energy. The C-PACE Program provides an innovative financing model that will allow building owners across the state to access low-cost financing and the opportunity to realize cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable energy. Please visit http://bit.ly/UGWngK for additional information and opportunities.

     

    http://bit.ly/Ym5ymc

     

    and

     

    http://www.c-pace.com
    31 Jan 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Quality Stocks gushes, via Instablog, over ZBB's latest move:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Not a damp rag in sight ...
    31 Jan 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • The same can be said for comments.
    31 Jan 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Future of U.S. Electric Car Loans ‘Remains to Be Seen,’ Chu Says

     

    http://bloom.bg/YmbFqT

     

    Energy Secretary Steven Chu said it “remains to be seen in the future” whether about $16 billion in available U.S. government loans to develop alternative- technology vehicles will be disbursed.

     

    Chu stood by President Barack Obama’s goal of having 1 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads by 2015.

     

    The goal is “ambitious, but we’ll see what happens,” Chu said after touring displays at the Washington Auto Show, where he looked almost exclusively at alternative-fuel vehicles including Nissan Motor Co.’s Leaf and General Motors Co. (GM)’s Cadillac ELR.

     

    Chu said he wants to bring the cost of buying a plug-in five-passenger vehicle down to $20,000 to $25,000.

     

    “The thrill of driving by a gas station and smiling is one everybody should experience,” Chu said.

     

    Chu declined to say whether he will stay in office as Obama begins his second term.

     

    Chu, 64, was a career scientist and co-winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics when he joined the Cabinet in January 2009.
    31 Jan 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • I just picked up another 10k at 0.32

     

    The ePower preliminary results are what pushed me over my personal sticking point.
    31 Jan 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • 5:07 PM Nokia (NOK) and a slew of academic/business partners have received a 10-year, €1B ($1.36B) EU grant to research and commercialize graphene, an ultra-thin structure said to have "a breaking strength 300 times greater than steel," and which could potentially have a variety of electronics applications. A Nokia R&D exec compares graphene's importance to that of silicon and cheap iron. Hyperbole? We should have a better idea within a decade. 1 Comment [Tech]
    31 Jan 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • "Nokia begins work on graphene, world's strongest material
    The mobile-phone maker receives a $1.35 billion grant to work on development of the 2D wonder-material that is stronger, lighter, and thinner than anything else on Earth."

     

    http://cnet.co/WDO99M

     

    cool model pic ... funky Cambridge video.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • 1/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from the instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 18, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 63453, AvTrSz: 3525
    Min. Pr: 0.3156, Max Pr: 0.3240, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3209
    # Buys, Shares: 9 31561, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3222
    # Sells, Shares: 6 24392, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3195
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 7500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3200
    Buy:Sell 1.29:1 (49.7% “buy:sells”), DlyShts 0 (00.0%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

     

    Well, if not for John's instablog on the results of the ePower trip, this would have been a rather boring day. Fortunately, he saved the day for me.

     

    Not a lot to say – contrast to yesterday is pronounced with very low volume, tight spread of 2.66%, the bids and asks didn't jump around much, nothing large appeared. Yes, we did finish up 0.03% (that's three one-hundredths percent or one one-hundredth of a penny!) so I guess there's still joy in Mudville.

     

    Other than that, I'll keep it short (of which there were none today). Traded blow the 200-day SMA of $0.3237 except for one 1K trade of $0.3240. Lower high and almost flat low ($0.3155 yesterday). Oscillators I follow that were trying to curl up gave up on that today and went to flat or turning slightly down except for the stochastic, which is just below neutral at ~49.36. We closed exactly on the potential new rising support, so it's still unknown if this will be a new rising channel support. My gut says unlikely right now.

     

    On my experimental stuff, everything's pretty much just as it was yesterday.

     

    Details of everything omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • The question of the day is whether I should include the comments on my Instablog as honorary concentrator comments because it seems like I've inadvertently sucked away all of today's traffic?
    31 Jan 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks again for your TA, HTL.

     

    I'm thinking the low volume and tight spread reflects caution in advance of the 1 yr anniversary of the Feb. 1, 2012 capital raise and November cc statements regarding provision made at the time for a repeat if needed.
    31 Jan 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • To tell you the truth John I looked across various sites and it was a slow news day in the sector.

     

    But I did find this need to know tid bit. WOT.

     

    I found it really odd but then I really freaked out when I thought to myself "Who the heck came up with this?". But then I guess every fisherman knows you can't get that smell off your hands!

     

    Man finds (valuable) whale vomit on English beach

     

    http://yhoo.it/XMzMw8
    31 Jan 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • I really loved the last line of the story because I too would be wealthy beyond my wildest dreams of avarice if hairballs were marketable commodities.
    31 Jan 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • According to wikipedia, "Eggs and ambergris was reportedly King Charles II of England's favourite dish."
    1 Feb 2013, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • John: "sucked away all of today's traffic"

     

    I don't think we'd have had much traffic today anyway, other than discussion of the drying rates of various paints. Your traffic was "native born and bred", so to speak, and thank you for it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2013, 05:38 AM Reply Like
  • Wow,
    Way to slow a news day. Hairballs, Tapeworm, E-Power a success.

     

    Stop with the madness.
    31 Jan 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • An interview I gave last week was just published on Energy Storage Industry News and has some interesting points.

     

    http://bit.ly/12evTHL
    1 Feb 2013, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • Good interview John. Encapsulates the points you've been making in a way that anybody can easily grasp ... except maybe the "Muskovites".

     

    Noticed a typo that you might want to have them correct.

     

    "They also present a word of opportunities for increased energy efficiency"

     

    Word => world?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    You have answered these questions on your blog for years. But I was impressed with the clarity of your answers. It seems that you have been able to make the economics of energy storage understandable. Nice work and congrats on finding a new outlet for your writing.
    1 Feb 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • I only plan to do five or six pieces a year for ESIN, but the publisher is active on the conference circuit and more industry exposure never hurts. I gave TheStreet a try for a few months but hated their comment functionality. More importantly, the comments I did get were nowhere near the quality I've come to expect from SA readers. If I'm going to invest the time and effort to write, I want to feel that it was helpful and I just didn't get that feel from TheStreet.

     

    I guess I'm just an SA Snob.
    1 Feb 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • John, Good groundwork for an initial interview. Hopefully this new forum will yield some additional channels for your personal and professional interests.

     

    PS I'm sure you realize your bio needs adjustment at some point. Or you can add some twang to your writing style. (Hey, I'm just jealous as it's snowing here and the mercury is dropping fast!)
    1 Feb 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • It's going to be a little nippy here today with temperatures stuck in the high 60s. Of course you have to remember that I grew up in Phoenix where Mom said we couldn't go swimming until the temperature topped 100.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • The ESIN piece is very readable and very clear and is a must read for newbies to energy storage!
    1 Feb 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Nice read, JP. Loved the breadth of perspective.
    1 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • John - good responses. This article appeared to be more storage focused for on-grid than for off-grid and remote. Both are important. One is certainly larger than the other. Which one is more important or valuable is in the eye of the beholder. I'm sure you will address both as you write your future articles for them.

     

    Keep on keeping-on.
    1 Feb 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm, I grew up in Wisconsin. During the summer when buses took kids to a lake about 20 miles away, unless there was at least a balmy temperature of 45, no swimming.
    2 Feb 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • John

     

    You have a way of capturing the essence of the argument:
    "Unfortunately the first thing they forget is the law of economic gravity – the cheapest solution always wins. When waste is cheaper than storage, waste will dominate. As storage and conservation become cheaper than waste, storage and conservation will dominate."

     

    One does not need a PHD, MBA or CPA to digest and put the energy storage challenge in context as captured in your quote.
    2 Feb 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Futurist.

     

    With the same clarity is being viewed the potential (unique) of AXION PbC Tech.

     

    Have a good day-Carlos
    1 Feb 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Carlos,

     

    Yes. The PbC can cycle many more times than any other cheap storage device. Thus it is more economical to use than other forms of storage.
    Now, we simply have to find more applications, like the ePower hybrid truck, that can utilize the efficiencies of the battery.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, here's an article about a company called Alt-e that is doing similar truck conversions as ePower, but focusing on smaller trucks. They are going with the A123 battery, though, probably because space is more of an issue on a smaller frame.
    http://aol.it/WANRR0
    1 Feb 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Alt-e is building battery dominant plug in hybrids with range extenders.

     

    It has nothing to do with the engine dominant series electric drive with battery boost that ePower is demonstrating.
    1 Feb 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • The similarity is that they are both taking existing platforms, pulling out the engines and replacing with a gas-electric hybrid combo.

     

    Is one better suited to PBC than the other?
    1 Feb 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • The Alt-e platform is battery dominant, which means it needs lots of batteries to power it in electric only mode. Anything with a plug that doesn't run on steel rails is a suboptimal application for the PbC.
    1 Feb 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • The comment about mpg on flat terrain from traditional class 8 rigs was a good one, the following is a reply from Epower on that topic. We have been talking 10 mpg on flat terrain, I do believe they are low balling that #, they seem to be the kind of people that want to under promise and over deliver, with continued improvement and engineering I think they are looking for better numbers down the road (my intuition not their commentary).

     

    Yes you can see numbers all over the place from different drivers, all
    depends on terrain, load, wind ect. The government is pushing for new fuel
    standards of 7.2 on flat terrain in 2014 with major resistance from engine
    manufacturers. Here is a short extract from an article on the subject this
    week. Keene trucking tracks their mpg on all drivers and they see runs from
    a low of 4.6 to a high of 7.4 on the reports that I have seen.
    Thanks
    Jay

     

    It's Not Exactly a Prius, Folks
    In 1973, the feds estimated that semis got about 5.6 miles per gallon of
    diesel; today's estimate is 6.5 mpg, although different trucks get fuel
    economy in a range from 4 to 8. Going up a steep hill, a truck's mileage
    might drop to about 2.9 mpg, while going down the same hill will raise it to
    more than 23 mpg. New fuel-economy standards that take effect beginning in
    2014 will require semi trucks with a sleeper cab to get 7.2 mpg on level
    roads.

     

    Read more: 10 Things You Didn't Know About Semi Trucks - Popular Mechanics
    1 Feb 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Bwaneke
    Here is the link to that popular mechanic article.

     

    http://bit.ly/YJ4Zac
    1 Feb 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. Chu is stepping down. I wonder what the PHEV & Li-ion crews are doing - sweating bullets?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • He also updated his numbers for "what would have to happen next to make electric vehicles a mass-market product."
    "First he cited the cost of the battery. While it has declined from about $1,000 per kilowatt-hour of storage in 2008 to about $500 today, it would have to decline to $125 over the next 10 years."
    http://nyti.ms/XNJv5a
    1 Feb 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • At DOE, Dr. Chu made "a deliberate attempt to recreate the essentials of Bell Laboratory, the legendary launching pad for numerous basic technologies in use today and the workplace of 13 Nobel Prize winners, including Chu himself. Bell’s best-known Nobel was for the 1947 creation of the transistor by John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley."

     

    http://bit.ly/14AakQB
    4 Feb 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Random news article on graphene that might interest some of you:

     

    http://stanford.io/VzMUu7
    1 Feb 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mid-day February 1 and no capital raise announcement. It appears that if last year's investor group and pricing formula is used this year a different pricing period will be used, perhaps Jan. - Feb. average closing price instead of Dec. - Jan. I suppose Feb. - March is also a possibility.
    1 Feb 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Or.... our fondest dreams.
    1 Feb 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv, in case you missed it, check out JP's excellent post on this topic, one that I'm sure is on all our minds:

     

    http://bit.ly/14GmlVH
    2 Feb 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Just off the line with Mario Bottero. We talked about the Super Bowl as much as anything; he's pulling for the 49ers, I'm rooting for the Ravens.

     

    Mario was near gushing about the Queens project, saying (and I'm paraphrasing) that the students up there really get it, and their research is doing nicely, "A great job," Mario said.

     

    I did bring up the Residential Hub, and Mario stated there's some real solid interest going on. But, what I wrote about in the Notes And More From The 2012 Shareholders Conference still holds true; the lithium hype cycle is still on, and perhaps chief amongst Axion issues going forward is debunking the government-backed lithium hype cycle, and that the word "lead" still retains ugly connotations from the "lead paint era" to the end using consumer.

     

    My own opinion is that the wealthy, those with 10,000 plus square foot homes, already have many, many devices in their homes; laptops, cell phones, electric tooth brushes, toys, iPads, tablets, and a host of other lithium powered devices that run perfectly well, safely, and have been for years. Heck, I even have a 15 year old Dust Buster that still works just fine -- only the cycle duration doesn't last as long as it used to.

     

    It's a heck of a battle for Axion to tackle; this hundreds of millions of DOE money going toward lithium. But as we all know, slowly, we're making inroads, as the shipment of the Norfolk order demonstrates.

     

    So due to consumer potential demand, Rosewater is exploring other battery chemistries, but, and I want to make this perfectly clear, Rosewater is still going to sell the Hub using PbCs.

     

    I also spoke with Mario about how the auto industry seems to be going toward a three lithium battery system consisting of 48v, with a cranking battery, and then my question of if, or why, after the 2010 BMW Istanbul presentation, would this then therefore require a 48v three PbC plus a LA "cranker" configuration from Axion in order to compete? What has changed? Has anything changed? Does there really need to be three PbCs?

     

    The answer is that he did not know. This issue (important) for me remains unclear. Perhaps more juice is needed during engine off times than only one PbC can provide? Everything I've learned so far leaves me confused on this matter. I'm hoping someday Ed can throw some color and commentate regarding this subject.

     

    Mario did add that his wife just bought a BMW, and the stop/start feature during the sales presentation was not even brought up by the salesman. Mario had to bring it up. And you know what? The stop/start feature on this brand new Bimmer...doesn't work.

     

    My take away from this conversation is that surely a cap raise is coming, and that this will provide more time to get the ball rolling with NSC, OEMs, grid applications and of course, with ePower and class 8 trucks.

     

    Though both of us are not particularly happy with the current share price (who is?), and how difficult it's been for Axion to tackle the lithium hype cycle, we both shared extremely positive views for Axion going into later this year, and 2014.

     

    Lastly, I want to add that we all have noticed a fairly dramatic fall off in daily volume during the past few sessions. This happened last year, too, around the end of January, and the beginning of February. But this year, recent session volumes are even lower, despite the high 2013 January volume; it seems much more likely this year that the sellers, the deep pockets as I like to call them, just may be done; out of shares to sell. Any positive news out of New Castle, and we might just see an upward squeeze.

     

    As I suggested in an earlier comment maybe a week ago, it's a real dicey time to be gaming exactly when the cap raise will occur, versus any potential forthcoming news, which potentially could vault share price.

     

    Oh, and one more thing. I really enjoyed the DVD Rosewater and Axion created about the PowerCube, and suggested to Mario that Rosewater should produce one targeting perspective buyers of the Residential Hub. Mario answered that Rosewater is already working on this idea, and that they should have one in the coming weeks. He'll give me a heads up when the DVD becomes available.
    1 Feb 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    If the word "lead" is really a detriment to selling, then why not rename PbC (at least for Rosewater's purposes) as something like Carbon-Metal, Metal-Carbon or, more descriptively, Carbon-Metal Capacitive Storage (CMCS) which simply ignores the lead component?

     

    I understand no one wants to discard PbC, and it shouldn't be, but re-branding for a specific product shouldn't be a problem, right?
    1 Feb 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo: I'm not equipped to answer that question from a legal angle. The only thing I can offer up is that the PbC is already trademarked. JP would know better than I if any product can have two trademarked names.

     

    My guess is...why not? If it's involved with a different and singular application. But again, I'm not an attorney.
    1 Feb 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • >Renzo & Maya ... John has said many times that finding a trademark name (that Axion likes) is extremely difficult. Most of the good ones are taken. I guess Axion could spend the cash on hiring a firm that specialize in this chore someday down the road but I think it is frivolous for the customer base they are chasing. No jingles or catchy phases are needed for advertising right now.
    1 Feb 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Great recap Maya! Thanks for taking the time to telcon w/Mario and then update us!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the readout, Maya.

     

    Regarding, "I did bring up the Residential Hub, and Mario stated there's some real solid interest going on" I continue to say, Wish you every success but I will believe it when Axion sees cash from sales.

     

    Proof of the pudding is in the eating.
    1 Feb 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv: Agreed. Pudding is for desert. I just want an empanada.
    1 Feb 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • It's cold up there in Canada. Probably why the SS is not working.

     

    Thanks for the feedback Maya.

     

    Glad there's no lead in any of those older electronic devices. :)
    1 Feb 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, many thanks. I'm thinking though that your 15y/o dustbuster is a bit more likely to be NiCd rather than Li-ion, unless you got a super deluxe model... From all we've heard, 15 years of service out of a li-ion battery would be outstanding...
    1 Feb 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Why does "lead" sound so familiar as a problem...

     

    I hoisted "Bio-Carbon batteries" up the flagpole about 100 times, but nobody saluted. All of Axion's carbon is from coconuts, as far as I know. A USPTO search yields no hits for "Bio-carbon". A Google search for "Bio-carbon batteries" (in quotes) has no hits except for my own comment stream. We chatted about this back Sept 2012.

     

    Nobody ever complains about NiMH (nickel metal hydride), so maybe BioCM?
    1 Feb 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • I think marketers would love to sell "Bio-Carbon" batteries.
    1 Feb 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Cocoanuts... Primary applications choo choo trains...

     

    CocoaPuff batteries?

     

    Nah. Its taken.
    1 Feb 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • RK, fwiw, I always thought you had a point-- and connotation in my book is one of the most powerful forces in play in any matter of marketing, but I never saw this as something really being in our court as small shareholders. Shifting away from PbC would seem to be a pretty big deal involving not a little inertia and at least several hurdles. But maybe it is in fact time to revisit that question, particularly if the Bio-Carbon name is still as yet unsnagged by anyone else...
    1 Feb 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • 48: If we sell to end-use consumers I think it may be important. Until then, it seems less critical to me. The current folks that have to evaluate and decide on the product shouldn't be swayed by a marketing name I think.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • You had a good idea, but the other half is still "lead" and the labs know that.
    Lead is a 4 letter word in the industry & I have came to the conclusion that is why the slow adoption.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, I know and agree to an extent, but still it's maddening how the lithium-ion meme seems to have embedded itself so deeply in just about everybody's brain stem. Prospective Hub purchasers are end-use consumers, and according to Maya the lead connotation may be in fact hurting us a little... But yeah, like I said, there are certainly hurdles, and I don't claim to be the best one to decide. But in our pop-culture driven world, it is still an issue, albeit maybe not one of the biggest...
    1 Feb 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • I think even Carbon lead CPb would be OK. People hear Lead first and their brain shuts down.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • I just don't think the name is the issue. Rosewater knows all the distributors to the high end housing market. If they want to call the HUB something else they certainly can do that easy enough. Their distributors and/or customers have toured the Axion plant. The sales or lack of them is not about the name. Could be that few $60,000 residential home storage units are sold ,no matter what they are made of. With Dreamliners catching fire, I'm sure a safe home or commercial product can be pitched no matter what is in the name.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,

     

    Thanks for talking to Mario and commenting about the call. Did he say what products will/might have other battery chemistries? Just the HUB, or also whatever proposed solutions come out of the Queen's University study? I think the HUB represents a much smaller amt of potential sales, but is of course sooner revenue. If we get only a little PbC revenue from the current HUB but a lot more from the distributed energy solutions, that would work just fine, as the latter probably represents far more potential PbC sales. And I would think those solutions would be a lot less sensitive to the 'lead bad/lithium good' flawed impression, as they apparently would be driven by utilities/businesspeople and not homeowners.

     

    Maybe if homeowners see two HUBS side by side, and the lithium one is, say, $5k-$10k more expensive than the PbC one, they'll come over to the good side of the Force. Around where I live, lead-acid batteries are already common in homes, as backup power for both sump-pumps and computer UPSs.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Marketing image is hugely important. Thank about "obscure", manufacturer-only, non-consumer products, like "Intel Inside", Pentium, Gorilla Glass, Tyvek, Halon, Freon, Kevlar, etc. Consumers almost never buy these items directly, yet they are an important part of many quality consumer items.

     

    Since there is almost no branding to date (maybe 1 in a million people have ever heard of PbC?), "rebranding" is easy. The problem is inertia of the engineers thinking they know more than marketeers.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I: I did not ask Mario what other chemistries or battery makers Rosewater is looking into. Out of curiosity, I did think to do so, but held back because it's none of my business.

     

    I believe, and encourage comments otherwise if I'm wrong, and I could very well be wrong, but the Queens study is not only about residential applications, but also out to grid scale.

     

    The only reason why I called Mario at this moment in time, was that it appeared to me that Axionistas were clamoring for me to do so, when to me, it was ever apparent that Rosewater had stated pretty plainly that they are looking into other chemistries in order to offer another option to answer consumer demands, and, this needs to be reiterated, Rosewater will continue run with the PbC.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • DSE Hybrid Selects Balqon Corporation Lithium Battery System For Island Pilot Hybrid Yacht Using Solar Electric Drive

     

    http://bit.ly/Xd3BWK
    1 Feb 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • I mention the possibility again only because Maya mentioned " that the word "lead" still retains ugly connotations from the "lead paint era" to the end using consumer".

     

    I'm not suggesting a "rebranding" or trying to restart the website redesign argument. Perhaps I'm naive to think it's not impossible to find an appropriate alternative brand/trademark for consumers. How many different DieHard/DuraCell/Eveready brands are there?

     

    Should Axion put a lot of money or effort into this now? Clearly not. Would it beneficial to have a non-lead-connoting name down the road when individual consumers might be buying PbC batteries? Probably, yes.

     

    Bottom line, if the word "lead" is detrimental in any way to current or future sales, it doesn't hurt to consider alternatives like BioCarbon, CarbonMetal or even GreenFairyMetal.
    1 Feb 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • PbC is really very different from a lead acid battery as well all know after years of learning about and discussing it. When you hear the word "lead" you think "toxic" first and "cheap" second.

     

    I would only add that consumers may find it easier to pay-up for an "Extreme Carbon" battery than one they conflate with their "cheap" lead car battery.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo,
    You are probably correct from a marketing standpoint.
    However, if a customer needs more information in order to make an informed decision, then it is up to the salesperson to educate that customer.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • "However, if a customer needs more information in order to make an informed decision, then it is up to the salesperson to educate that customer. "

     

    Not many products sell better, if you first show customers a picture of snakes, instead of puppies. You do not want to start your salesman with a disadvantage.
    Also what makes Axion different is the Carbon. So why not start with it?
    1 Feb 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • To assume that a customer sees very bad things when told that Axion sells a hybrid battery /capacitor named the PbC is assuming a lot. If told that Axion sells a hybrid battery/capacitor made of coconuts I bet they get glassy eyed real quick.

     

    A good product person introduces any product to a customer with a benefit analysis after the customers needs are identified.

     

    In this case we are not advertising to the end consumer. We are showing a company how they can produce a better product with the PbC battery/capacitor. Its the benefit that sells at this point in the game, not the name. JMHO
    1 Feb 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • ALABC and CPT receive Low Carbon Champions award for low cost LC Super Hybrid technology
    http://bit.ly/XNVtvL
    “ALABC and CPT are delighted to receive this award in recognition of a range of technologies including the breakthrough we’ve achieved in developing high power density lead-carbon batteries, which are ideally suited to the new breed of low voltage micro-mild hybrids currently under development,” said Allan Cooper European projects coordinator at the Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium. . .

     

    Building on the success of their 12 volt technology demonstrator, CPT and ALABC are now in the vanguard of the new 48 volt vehicle grid proposed by leading German carmakers. The new standard provides an ideal compromise for performance and cost in the development of a new generation of affordable super fuel efficient cars.
    1 Feb 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane: Depressing that Axion passed on participation in that.

     

    Oh well, bridge under water and all that. :-((

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, sentiments shared... but then I also have to remind myself that in most of these things, it's still true that Axion likely knows more than we do... they certainly do about all the things they're doing that we don't know about... what is the real extent, nature, and depth of their activities with GM, BMW, the large asian OEM etc... we have clues, foia grant requests etc.. but for all we know they could be deep in skunkworks with say GM to produce something that equals or even surpasses the LC superhybrid.... these big players have resources upon resources..
    1 Feb 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • The other problem that folks keep overlooking is that the ALABC is focused on promoting advanced lead-acid technologies that all of their members can implement. The PbC is definitely not in that class and I can imagine all kinds of strings that might attach to an ALABC project. The bottom line is we don't know what happened and why.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Regarding the ALABC, there was one interesting paragraph on 2012 research projects in their 2013-2015 prospectus document:

     

    "The rate of hydrogen evolution on pure carbon electrodes was measured using various carbon
    powders provided by most of the ALABC carbon producing members. The results of the study
    showed that on all carbon electrodes, hydrogen evolved much more slowly than on pure lead."

     

    http://bit.ly/13kHGSR

     

    Do the phrases "...pure carbon electrodes" and "...all carbon electrodes" imply Axion involvement or can researchers make their own crude prototypes for these tests? If Axion is involved, it's interesting that these tests were done "...using various carbon
    powders provided by most of the ALABC carbon producing members."
    1 Feb 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I'm indifferent of ALABC participation but Axion is interested in selling the same electrode to all of ALABC members. Someday the members will need to learn to take that electrode and differentiate that from others into their product. Strings aside, couldn't Axion do that with ALABC without giving the store away?
    1 Feb 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • We have already seen that Sandia shares patent technology of manufacturers who participate in their studies. I would not be at all surprised if ALBAC wanted to get their hands on as many technologies as they could so they could see if they could rip them off and share with the industry. Smart move by Axion, IMO.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Lets keep in mind that "extreme Power" uses lead and they have had great success burning up the Grid with demonstration projects ( pun intended). I can see the name PbC not being a retail namesake. But B2B sales should be least effected by the nature of the beast. Thousands of UPS buyers purchase lead right now.
    NS doesn't care about the name.
    All car batteries are lead.

     

    I'm not against Bio-carbon or CoconutPower or FuturePower or any other name. I'm for sales. If the salesman is getting the opportunity to talk to the prospective buyers, the name will not be as important as the product or the price. I just think its difficult to sell $60,000 home storage units that don't cycle the battery very often.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist, many fair and solid points as well.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • 48,
    Thanks. I couldn't help but notice this snippet from the above quoted text:
    "“ALABC and CPT are delighted to receive this award in recognition of a range of technologies including the breakthrough we’ve achieved in developing high power density lead-carbon batteries,"

     

    Anybody notice what kind of battery is promoted from the industry?
    Yep-- Lead-carbon.
    Just saying. Mountains out of molehill kinda thing in my book.
    Cheap beats cool by any other name.
    PbC by any other name still smells ( as sweet as ) like green money to me.
    1 Feb 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • That's particularly true when we can point to graphs from first tier players like Banner that prove the lead-carbon batteries in the LC SuperHybrid are mere pretenders when it comes to DCA and cycle life.

     

    http://bit.ly/QkCOK0
    1 Feb 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • JP,
    I'm sure they will work better when they make the system larger to 48v. Probably just not cycling that LAB enough.
    (sarcasm font is being used)
    1 Feb 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Please send me a personal message with instructions on using the sarcasm font. I can't seem to get anything more than plain vanilla.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • They're right here next to my invisible ink highlighter.
    1 Feb 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Two clarifications:

     

    -- I'm not sure where the $60,000 price tag came from for a Hub. It's $45,000. Did I miss something?

     

    -- Though all of us had discussed in great depth prior to the 2012 Shareholders Conference about all the negatives regarding having lead in the name of the PbC, I offer to all quoting me is that what I wrote earlier today, was discussed by Vani Dantum at the same conference:

     

    Here's what I wrote of what Vani had said back in July:

     

    -- Vani is indeed a very knowledgeable man, and I found him sincere and accomplished in answering all but Rastro's question (a shareholder from Pittsburgh) who asked about what scientific problems existed with the PbC. After a long, pregnant pause, Vani couldn't think of one! Except for trying to get industries to realize that the PbC has capabilities that rival, or in some cases, are better than lithium ion batteries.

     

    1 Feb 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    Just picked the $60,000 HUB price out of memory. Unfortunately,that particular memory chip of mine is going bad over time.

     

    I think all recognize that educating the buyers is difficult. But calling it something other than what it is won't change the education process.

     

    Maybe a slogan: " Our nuts are more powerful than your ions"

     

    Yes, a powerful slogan that makes Vani's points. If Axion wants that one they are welcome to it at no charge. Any others?
    1 Feb 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Our nuts are bigger?
    1 Feb 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • "The Carbonator- Makes lithium look like a sissy"
    1 Feb 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • The PbC-Powerful but Carbonated
    1 Feb 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • "Our PbCs are made from the biggest nuts in the world. Using anything else for your electrical storage needs? Now well that IS nuts!"
    1 Feb 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Unlike Lithium-Even a monkey is safe with coconut power.
    1 Feb 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Sheesh! Is it Supe TGIF weekend? You guys are hilarious!
    1 Feb 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    As the writer amongst us surely you have a slogan showing why PbC outshines Lithium. Cmon Man. Help Vani out. He needs something clever for his pitch line.
    1 Feb 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Bio-Carbon: Exposing the Li in Lithium-Ion

     

    Bio-Carbon: All the Performance, Half the Price, None of the Fires

     

    PbC: Subsidy Free Since 2003
    1 Feb 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist: The only name I ever came up with that was patented was the, "Hambrosia." Grilled Virginia ham, pineapple and sharp swiss on a freshly baked roll. Was quite delicious! Food for the Gods.

     

    I prefer to keep any epiphanies conjured saved and targeted toward my novel, or future writing endeavors ;-)

     

    Here's a little sample of a couple quips I wrote earlier this week into my collection of Phrases and Thoughts:

     

    -- He well understands angry hands.

     

    -- Yea, that smart guy should be behind bars staring at a library cart.

     

    Lastly, and maybe because I feel a tad overwhelmed in reading/deciphering a new tedious and lengthy paper from my archeologist pal from Honduras, regarding how the Maya may have used a siderial calendar, rather than a tropical one, and all the ramifications this new thinking would bear toward my book is, one night this week, after a few beers, I wrote, "The more I do less, the less chance I can do more."

     

    Definitely beer infused!
    1 Feb 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    I had never bought a novel because of one paragraph before last month. But the first paragraph of this book got me to buy it.

     

    " Some years later, on a tugboat in the Gulf of Mexico, Joe Coughlin's feet were placed in a tub of cement. Twelve gunmen stood waiting until they got far enough out to sea to throw him overboard, while Joe listened to engine chug and watched the water churn white at the stern And it occurred to him that almost everything of note that had ever happened in his life- good or bad- had been set in motion the morning he first crossed paths with Emma Gould."

     

    I had to know the story behind that guys troubles. Hope your expressions cause the same effect in millions of readers.

     

    BTW. I like "He well understands angry hands".
    1 Feb 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • " PBC's- More cycling than Lance Armstrong
    1 Feb 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • We don't need no stinking performance enhancers.
    1 Feb 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • PbC, Worth keeping an ion!
    1 Feb 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • ii: ;-)
    1 Feb 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Either PbC or blow me!
    1 Feb 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • I get it but that's verging on a request to SA for a dislike button.
    1 Feb 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • II,
    DING DING DING DING
    Might have a winner here.

     

    But lets keep trying.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Our ions are heavy!
    1 Feb 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • PbC....more juice than A-Rod!
    2 Feb 2013, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • Okay, since it's Saturday and we're spitballing, how about for the future PbC consumer version:

     

    "Axion's new PbC "POGO" battery. Recharge it forever."
    2 Feb 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Behold the mighty PbC! Our secret? Giant nuts.
    1 Feb 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Our PbC Bio-Carbonator organic batteries are made from virgin plastics, purest recycled lead, and gently toasted cocoanut shells--all bathed in a lustrous, low-pH aqueous solution of abundant elements. These will be batteries you'll be proud to own and pass on to the next generation. Over the years they are sure to take on a rich patina, and with their many timeless qualities are all but destined to become heirloom classics. Don't miss this opportunity to own one of the originals and in so doing, change the world...
    1 Feb 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Or maybe we could step on Patek Phillipe's tag line "You never really own a PbC, you merely look after it for the next generation."
    1 Feb 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • 48,
    Kinda long for a slogan but it would make a beautiful commercial with all types of batteries laid out on the dining table.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • PbC: Where carbon "lead" the way forward.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Got Carbon?
    1 Feb 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Powered By Carbon (PbC)-
    More Power than needed by a locomotive
    Able to energize tall buildings with a single charge
    Faster recharge than a speeding ion
    Its Superbattery.Disguised as a mild mannered AGM but so much more.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Powered by Carbon (PbC)
    We accept charge the way American Express accepts credit. Immediately.
    1 Feb 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • Sequester more - Create less
    1 Feb 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stat of the Day: China Consumes Nearly as Much Coal as Every Other Country Combined

     

    "So just how much coal is the country burning? According to data from the Energy Information Administration, China is burning 3.8 billion tons of coal a year -- nearly rivaling the rest of the world combined."

     

    http://bit.ly/VCxx0F
    1 Feb 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • and the beautiful part is, they are still ramping up.

     

    the interesting part, they are shutting down inefficient power plant like crazy. their energy extracted per unit coal has also jumped up in the last decade.

     

    this generation has witnessed the greatest increase in global wealth in human history and it has occurred during the last 15 years and will continue for another 30 years.

     

    http://bit.ly/WkQW8c
    these stats are from May 2011
    Chinese electrical energy production is rising at >10% per annum, with a significant in reduction in Grams of coal per kWh each and every year.

     

    the changes in Chinese energy on an annual basis take about a decade outside of China.
    1 Feb 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Renim. Huge wealth creation for sure.

     

    Unfortunately each successive industrial revolution brings more and more process wastes that deliver sins that dwarf the prior cycles if not managed well. Not to mention the speed and magnitude at which they occur.
    2 Feb 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Renim
    In 2009-10 China was shutting down old coal plants.
    I haven't seed any notices since then.

     

    Page 113:
    CO2 emissions per kWh from electricity generation
    grammes CO2 / kilowatt hour

     

    Page 110
    Electricity output
    terawatt hours

     

    Between 2005 and 2010
    Column A. shows China's decrease in grams CO2 per kWh by 11%
    Column B. shows China's increase in electricity production by 66%
    Year A B
    2005 _ 863 _ 2 538
    2006 _ 859 _ 2 903
    2007 _ 822 _ 3 315
    2008 _ 803 _ 3 497
    2009 _ 800 _ 3 735
    2010 _ 766 _ 4 212

     

    Grams CO2 per kWh X the number of tWh (terawatt hours)
    to get the total grams CO2 produced in China for electricity
    2005 _ 863 X 2 538 = 2190294
    2010 _ 766 X 4 212 = 4280060
    Basically China has doubled it's emissions in 5 years.

     

    With increases every year despite the recession.
    http://bit.ly/WEFILw

     

    Efficiency improvements are good.
    The air is unfortunately still getting worse in China.
    Which spreads to the rest of the world as well.
    I consider other things coming out of their coal plants worse.

     

    Scientists discovered that U.S man made mercury sources account for 32 percent of the mercury entering the Great Lakes. Chinese sources deposit nearly half as much with 14 percent.

     

    http://bit.ly/XebLOu
    2 Feb 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • China smog:

     

    http://bit.ly/11zACiw
    2 Feb 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • I seem to have had a math problem.
    2005 _ 863 X 2 538 = 2190294
    2010 _ 766 X 4 212 = 3226592

     

    One and a half times 2005 pollution.

     

    CO2 emissions per kWh from electricity generation using coal/peat
    grammes CO2 / kilowatt hour in 2010

     

    China was at 967
    Africa 990
    Asia's average was 1 132
    India 1 195
    OCED Europe917
    Non-OECD Americas 1 323
    US 907
    World 958

     

    The world as a whole is getting more efficient Coal plants but efficiency gains about 4%) between 2005 - 2010. total CO2 emissions went up about 10% in that period of time how much was electricity production from coal I don't know ATM.

     

    To this they are adding plug in EVs.
    This seems like a big mistake to me.
    2 Feb 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • In The ‘Crazy’ World Of Carbon Finance, Coal Now Qualifies For Emission Reduction Credits

     

    By Stephen Lacey on Sep 19, 2012 at 12:30 pm

     

    CDM).
    The CDM is a trading platform set up by the UN that allows developed countries to obtain verified emissions reduction credits through renewable energy, energy efficiency, power plant fuel switching, and sustainable transportation projects in developing countries in order to meet Kyoto Protocol targets.

     

    Now the UN has added coal to the list of eligible projects. Again.

     

    At a CDM Executive Board meeting last week, the organization approved new rules that allow more efficient supercritical and ultra supercritical coal plants built in developing countries to obtain carbon credits. So theoretically, a coal-fired power plant in Europe could be “offset” by carbon credits not through renewable energy, but through another carbon-burning coal power plant in India.......>
    1 Feb 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • froggy,
    Thanks for that information. I will have to investigate that further.
    I'm not against making things more efficient. I am interested in how efficient a supercritical coal plant really is. Let alone an ultra supercritical one. Thanks
    2 Feb 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Really interesting development, fro. (Thanks for bringing it to our attention.) If one is so bold as to assume anyone at the UN actually pays any attention to objective science one might think some officials with influence are aware of the escalating numbers of well documented and executed studies showing global temperatures (and climate generally) far less sensitive to rising CO2 than claimed by CAGW adovactes and alleged in IPCC studies. This raises the question of whether the UN left hand knows what the UN right hand is doing.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    The term "ultra-supercritical" refers to the temperature and pressure of the steam.

     

    In conventional sub-critical generation, water is converted to steam through the process of boiling, AEP explains on its website.

     

    "At supercritical pressures, water is heated to produce steam through a gradual expansion without boiling," the website reads. "Due to improved thermodynamics … a supercritical steam generating unit is more efficient than a sub-critical unit."

     

    Now, advances in metals have made even higher-temperature and -pressure "ultra-supercritical" operation possible.

     

    What difference does it make?

     

    Here's how much of the energy in coal is converted to electricity for the three technologies: 34.3 percent for subcritical, 38.5 percent for supercritical and 43.3 percent for ultra-supercritical, according to representative calculations in MIT's 2007 "Future of Coal" study.

     

    AEP references 39 to 40 percent for its ultra-supercritical technology.

     

    http://bit.ly/YNVPJm

     

    A shortish and relatively complete article on advances in coal burning.
    http://bit.ly/XDAAVI

     

    The average global efficiency of coal-fired plants is currently 28% compared to 45% for the most efficient plants.

     

    To this I'll add developed nations average about 35% efficiency.
    China 32% and probably rising.
    ROW 28% efficiency.
    High efficiency has high upfront costs. If you are a poor nation what do you buy?
    If you don't have need of a lot of power payback slows. Only large power plants are worth making efficient.

     

    "one percentage point improvement in the efficiency of a conventional pulverised coal combustion plant results in a 2-3% reduction in CO2 emissions"

     

    I've heard 2%, I'd use that as a general rule. (This is written by the World Coal Association)

     

    In most of the advances, I am not aware of any improvements in other pollutants. Such as airborne lead, mercury, arsenic, etc. Which I consider an immediate problem.
    4 Feb 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • SInce it's now February, I did my monthly query to my Altoona contact and referenced this recently noted here 1/19 picture: http://bit.ly/TtbCvz

     

    The short cryptic response: "In the last week or two 999 was removed from that spot."

     

    Could mean a lot of things from good to same old same old ... including I've worn out my welcome or corporate wants a little more (totally understandable) "privacy" and taken some steps to make it so including simply moving it out of plain sight of anyone paying attention.
    2 Feb 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for your continued effort, wtb. The speculation juices are flowing now.

     

    I look forward to the addition, "under it's own PbC power" at some point!
    2 Feb 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • WTB, Ditto Mr I's thoughts.

     

    They have spent so much time dragging the NS999 around Juniata most of Altoona's population probably thinks they are working on a battery powered caboose. :(
    2 Feb 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Well, NS has had the NS999 PbC batteries for over a month now. IIRC, they self-discharge in about the same amt of time, no? So, unless NS let them discharge to zero and is keeping them in that state, they're either trickle charged in some building or they're in the NS999.
    2 Feb 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, true. Could be they have the racks assembled with the controller and they are cycling everything with a dummy load before they load the whole mess into the NS999. That's a step I'd take to test everything out before you find out you've got a bad connection somewhere that you can't get at.
    2 Feb 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • One would assume that if the batteries are shipped and paid for, then soon installation would occur. Might be in the shop a long time while testing systems gradually or could move fast if racks are in and other infrastructure are in place.
    thanks for the updates WTB
    2 Feb 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor> It's a digression, but Brad and I asked ePower about their experience with self-discharge in the PbC. In response Jay explained that as soon as their engine starts the generator begins recharging the battery string and by the time they get the tractor warmed up and out of the garage the battery string voltage is back into the optimal range.
    2 Feb 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. Nice to know the self discharge doesn't cost them idle time. Was that after the truck being off overnight, do you think? Hopefully a Monday morning recharge, if the truck was off all weekend (Tim E and Stilldazed, is that typical, or are fleet trucks normally used every day?), wouldn't be much of a delay, if at all. We're probably talking small potatoes, anyway.
    2 Feb 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • As I recall the self-discharge is only 1% to 1.5% per day. It adds up over the course of a month but is pretty meaningless in day to day operations.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco---a recent DRich link about the previous version of the 999 mentioned that it was difficult to replace a battery/batteries, because they were so densely packed into the loco (and heavy, of course). Not like the PC's easier access. Not sure if the increased attention to cooling has resulted in better access or not, but it might make a lot of sense to test the assembly outside of the loco first. Or for that matter, assemble all the batteries on their racks then hoist the whole thing into the loco as one huge piece. Got some big cranes at the Juanita shops. I'm totally guessing here, though, as I'm absolutely no expert.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Mr. I, That's what I'd expect. I had posted a picture of BNSF loading new battery racks into their Green Goats here in the past. You can tell by that picture that there are locations in the loco assembly where you'll need a crane to pull the whole rack to do any servicing. I'd expect the NS999 to be similar in its packaging challenge in this area.

     

    This is a different picture but it gives you an idea of the challenge.

     

    http://bit.ly/UMVEuz

     

    PS Note the RJ Corman mail box at the lower left of the frame. :)
    Man I wish RJ Corman and Axion were working hard on a next gen in this app.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • >iidelco ... Altoona does a lot of kitting for Corman. I don't think they have given up on the Green Goat, which was an engine centric system similar to ePower, but if you want to talk about a company that is really "gun shy" about batteries & BMS you've come to right mailbox.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, iinde. Gonna be great when pics of PbCs in customer products gets out there in a big way. Humans are such visual creatures---a picture is worth a 1,000 PRs kinda thing.
    2 Feb 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks DRich, I would have thought that the GG platform was one of the primary reasons RJC would have bought the Canadian firm that went BK as a result of the GG issues. A sure reason for caution with batteries but a great opportunity IMO. Maybe they are watching NSC closely on the NS999 program and even taking advantage of some partner related data sharing.

     

    I think I indicated some time ago that I was watching the in service GG's thinking that someone might have bought them on the cheap for retrofit with new energy storage technology. It became apparent that this would not be the case and if I recall correctly you gave me an indication of how many of these were being converted. I think it was multiple gen sets.
    2 Feb 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, I'll have to go back into Dr. B's comments to confirm, but I don't think the self-discharge is at as great a rate as your statement above would imply... IIRC, the rate was either 10% or 30% a month, I can't quite recall which... enough to matter certainly, but not enough to render the battery dead or useless, or damaged(?) ...
    2 Feb 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks 48, faulty logic on my part for equating the PbC's airport test time with the NS999's new batteries that can simply be recharged from an outlet prior to their use in the loco, I would think. Dramatically (lol) restating the intended core of my comment, is there any additional motivation for NS to get the NS999 completed and moving now that they've taken delivery of the PbC's?
    2 Feb 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • I think they are teasing you a little wtb. Good news my guess.
    2 Feb 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I,
    As a company driver with an assigned truck, it might sit for 34-48 hours a week (for the 70 hour DOT reset rule). If the company does slip seating, the truck would be given to another driver right away and the driver gets a different truck each time he comes back on to drive (mostly for long haul). For short haul day routes a truck is usually passed from driver to driver 2 shifts a day, 6 days a week. Can't make money if the wheels aren't turning. Not sure what the stats are now, but when I was over the road, financial break even was 2200 miles a week so a driver and company would try to get from 3200-3500 miles per week from a vehicle to make a profit. There are a lot of variables in how a truck is paid (by the load, by the mile, plus stops, ect). But this should give a general rule of thumb.
    2 Feb 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • "slip seating" now that's funny... the term I'm most familiar with is "hotseating"
    2 Feb 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed---interesting, thanks.

     

    I'm sure some of you guys are way ahead of me, but I haven't devoted any mind time to this until now. What are the key characteristics of ePower's top prospective customers? Add to the key list: truck utilization---how quickly they churn through them, i.e., miles driven per truck per year. Target that group especially and everyone wins even more: the buyer saves fuel cost at an accelerated rate (improving both ROI and net income), ePower sells more trucks/kits per year as the customer churns thru their useful lives faster, and Axion sells more PbCs for the same reason. Even a disappointly low mpg improvement of, say, 10%, might start to look pretty darn impressive if an operator is running his trucks two shifts a day, six days a week.

     

    Or even more. Hmmm, brainstorming the throughput maximization idea just a bit more---if the ePower solution lowers cost enough, some until-now uneconomic biz solutions become economic, such as a third shift? If true, then throughput goes up even more.

     

    Ok, time to head out w/ my bud for a beer. 'night
    2 Feb 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • This comment will be buried, but from my quick look at the financials of a couple long-haul trucking companies it appeared that their operating profit was about 7% of revenue with fuel consisting of about 30% of revenue. Thus a 10% reduction in fuel use would increase profit by 50%.

     

    If ePower could generate a 20 decrease in fuel use profit would nearly double. Another way of thinking about it is that adopting ePower would be the difference between a company being the least and most profitable company in the industry.

     

    Thus, if performance is remotely there and there are no major gotcha's, ePower, or it's competitors will be selling a lot more than 50 vehicles in 2014.
    4 Feb 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, apmarshall!

     

    I can't help but think that durabillity questions might hold the company back until they are answered. For example, BAE Systems sells a series hybrid drive for buses and there were reported premature traction motor failures in even the 2nd generation units.

     

    I understand that ePower is using a proven traction motor, but won't it have to prove itself in the new application as well?
    4 Feb 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Here is the roster of the defunct RailPower of all Green Goats built. Today, I believe only 6 exist as such. Norfolk Southern owns 2 they received as payment for services and will be (have been) converted to gensets.

     

    http://bit.ly/11fW41t

     

    Here is the roster of current gensets (USA only). There are more in the que out as far as 2017. Everyone is a conversion from a scrapped diesel or a GG. I haven't done a count of the roster or the que I know of so I don't have a hard number of units. If the NSC OTR is a success I would think that the next overhaul/rebuild cycle will find a lot of spare CAT engines for sale to short lines that are retiring units. I hope Axion is ready by then (2016) because I don't think the NSC OTR will be anything but successful. It will be a market of about 100 to 200 units (switchers only) per year forever. Who knows it might catch on beyond just the North American market.

     

    http://bit.ly/zb68vy
    2 Feb 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • New shortened experimental charts instablog is here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    02/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from new instablog (up now).
    # Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35500, Vol 247850, AvTrSz: 5901
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3295, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3256
    # Buys, Shares: 27 154650, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3257
    # Sells, Shares: 15 93200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3255
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.66:1 (65.9% “buys”), DlyShts 26400 (10.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.33%

     

    Well, today was better than yesterday. Had some volume come back, traded mostly above yesterday's 200-day SMA of $0.3237 and closed above it as well. Normally folks would see this as bullish, and it may be. But I recognize that we're above the 200-day only because it is dropping, so I've put away the party favors for now. Another complaint I have is the narrow spread – I look to see a bigger spread if we're getting ready to go somewhere.

     

    Now that we've been in this price range 5 days I can voice that which I've been trying to avoid ... short-term consolidation. I can't speak for you but I really do get tired of it even though I know it's a normal part of my beloved “grind up”, which I firmly believe is well underway.

     

    The readings for the oscillators I watch are better today – all made slight moves up. None are yet in bullish territory though and we know that we've been getting whipsawed due to the low volume. Today's volume was better but still below 3 of my averages of, in thousands, 235, 436, 391 and 364 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs. So I would be cautious about reading much into the oscillator swings.

     

    Next week we should know if the new faster-rising trading channel support is in play. This week has seen trading right around it, but we've been sideways. If we continue sideways next week the price will be below that line and we can take it out of play. Today it's ~$0.3242 and rises about $0.011/week, about 10% faster than the old one. If the new one is not in play, that means our old one from November is still controlling. Today that support is ~$0.3035 and rises roughly $0.01/week.

     

    The last thing on the traditional front is the MACD – the histogram seems to have given up a good part of the strength that DRich first noticed a few weeks back. But I believe it's temporary as we do this sideways thing, with some small dips and bounces, until we hit our support, and overshoot a little bit, and start our next leg up.

     

    On my experimental stuff, it's refreshing to see average trade size back into the low-to-mid retail range. I also like that the VWAP is above its 200-day SMA of $0.3227, but keep in mind the average is dropping so we can't read much into this other than at least we aren't being dragged down (yet?).

     

    My experimental inflection point calculations have reduced their rate of weakening, one of the stages in the set up for signaling a coming rise. As is common at this stage, a couple longer-term ones have started curling up, supporting the five-day's trend up which has been underway since 1/28. Today the 5-day crossed above zero – an early indication that a rise will be coming if the other periods start rising in concert and then the five-day rolls over ... normally. But, as always, it's early yet and we must wait for the configuration to appear.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL.

     

    "Now that we've been in this price range 5 days I can voice that which I've been trying to avoid ... short-term consolidation. I can't speak for you but I really do get tired of it even though I know it's a normal part of my beloved “grind up”, which I firmly believe is well underway."

     

    I'll admit I'm growing tired of watching the 2500 share mm BS as well. And the low volume is tiring. I'll also admit to throwing out the 30k share buy offer to get things moving in the early afternoon on Friday. I think it worked. I don't think it changes the eventual direction but I think it got the trading going. I at least want to see the cards before I wither away. ;))

     

    As always thanks for your efforts on the TA side. Really appreciate it.
    2 Feb 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Thanks for the links and the perspective. I agree.

     

    I did a bit of traveling in Mexico and saw some rail areas where I think the GG or NSC hybrid designs would make sense. I think NSC already does some business with this market as well. Also since NSC retrofits afford the lower cost structure such a market requires it's also supportive.

     

    I'm a big fan of the NSC platform. I'm just disappointed because as an Axion shareholder the timing is not as beneficial as I'd hoped. I think it'll be great. Even to the point where I'd rather roll the dice with a bank load this cycle if we can't get better terms than the last capital raise. I know the risks but I'd still vote my shares in that direction.
    2 Feb 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • A glaring omission in Wikipedia:

     

    http://bit.ly/WI8Gad
    2 Feb 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • However Axion is there, but only as a theoretical particle, with no proof of existence.
    http://bit.ly/11xgfqR
    3 Feb 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • marketing, marketing, marketing....
    3 Feb 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Hmmm. I wonder if Rosewater Energy Group has considered refining its HUB marketing targets by purchasing a list of Panasonic model TH-152UX1 buyers.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/11A...
    2 Feb 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Oh, cool...I've been looking for a bigger computer monitor, and that thing should square me away for a couple more years at least.
    2 Feb 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • They can package the car with the battery maker.

     

    Fisker hires turnaround specialist

     

    "The U.S. Energy Department pulled loans to Fisker last year, depriving the company of more than $300 million in funds. Fisker is seeking first-round bids by early February, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. If Fisker can't find a partner or raise funds by mid-year, the company risks running low on cash, said one of the people.

     

    Fisker's investors could also put up more money, that person said. Fisker has already attracted interest from carmakers operating in China, as well as global vehicle producers, the person said.

     

    Some suitors are interested in being strategic partners, while others would buy the company and the brand and some are just interested in the technology, according to the person."

     

    http://bit.ly/TrSE7e
    2 Feb 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • >Iindelco: "I'd rather roll the dice with a bank loan this cycle if we can't get better terms than the last capital raise. I know the risks but I'd still vote my shares in that direction."

     

    I've had similar thoughts. If we're as close to getting orders as it would seem, then I would think the risks of a loan would be much less than they were at the time of past capital raises. --- That said, I have to believe any capital raise would be less disruptive than the past one. I've even wondered if we may be in line for a 2013 spike in share price similar to the January 2012 spike, once the capital raise is behind us.
    2 Feb 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Lenders are generally pretty funny about loaning money to companies that don't have enough free cash flow to service the debt. In my ideal world Axion would do a preferred stock that pays a decent yield and is convertible into common at a premium to the market price. Dividend checks are no less painful to write than interest checks, but preferred stock can't force you into bankruptcy while debt can.

     

    The one problem with opinions like mine is they're meaningless because of the golden rule of corporate finance – Him who has the gold makes the rules and them who can't offer better terms have no right to complain.
    2 Feb 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • JP.. I would also vote the preferred route. Might even buy some.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • John...

     

    "Lenders are generally pretty funny about loaning money to companies that don't have enough free cash flow to service the debt."
    Now there's an understatement!
    Especially in these environments...economy... to understand technology...not sexy technology.
    Being a cup half full person, I have to believe more than one firm doing a lot of due diligence as we read and write.
    2 Feb 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne, I just can't see where a 0.20's to 0.30s USD raise makes any sense at this point relative to prior investor interests. I'm sorry but if I'm not seeing what I think I'm seeing from a technology/opportunity business opportunity right now what the heck am I going to get giving away another 30-40% interest in the company for another years runway. Go to the bank and get 1.5 years running room and get it launched at a small scale validating the tech. If they can't do that in that time frame and find a better investment group to scale it then it wasn't mean to be with this management team/round of investors.

     

    Sorry but that's my opinion. I'm sure we'll hear others. I'm not looking to speak for anyone else here and if I hear other points and they make more sense I'll willingly adjust my position. But I'm really pretty convinced this makes sense.

     

    I guess I'm just frustrated as heck watching a great incremental improvement in technology struggle when it appears real while having our government dump hundreds of millions of USD's into puke like Fisker. I often think I'm looking at a tapestry of business transactions that would occur in an insane asylum.
    2 Feb 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Raising $10 million at $.30 a share would take about 35 million shares, or 23% of the post offering capitalization of the company. The only reason Axion has a $.32 stock price today is that the current stockholders are suffering from whipped puppy syndrome because the bad behavior of a handful of big investors from 2009 convinced them that the stock wasn't worth more.

     

    Once upon a time there was a long line of big uglies who wanted to sell for a variety of reasons that had nothing to do with Axion's technical and business performance and were willing to take monster losses in the process. It crushed investor confidence despite steadily mounting evidence that the PbC was an extraordinary battery.

     

    The big uglies are out of stock. They have nothing left to sell. As near as I can tell the substantial bulk of the shares that were sold in February of last year have also been absorbed. The numbers show that there are no more huge blocks waiting to flood into the market, but the whipped puppies don't understand that they've grown into 170 pound Fila Brasileros.

     

    http://bit.ly/X4klBg

     

    When the Axionistas decide that it's time for the whipping to stop and they're not going to stand still for a $.32 market price things will change.

     

    In the meantime management is stuck with the stock market dynamic the stockholders have chosen.

     

    http://bit.ly/UNImxK
    2 Feb 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • I imagine this presumes that there is plenty of money on the sidelines. Also many Axionistas start popping champagne once it gets above 50 cents - thus large runs get faded. I too wish that Axionistas would hold tight and buy more but I know for a fact some have sold low.

     

    Maybe low volume for awhile will be a sign that the next round of buyers need to pay a fair market price. Otherwise I'm beginning to think the relatively high volume we had is actually Axionistsa and Feb. placement holders adjusting their position sizes to account for the fact that a quick score wasn't to be.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • This board has a couple hundred followers. The Axionista core is a cast of thousands that have bought substantially all of the shares sold in 2009 and substantially all of the shares sold in 2012. A few of them may be popping corks at $.50, but they won't be selling Axion shares to pay for the bottle. The guys who blithely talk about "trading blocks" today will quickly learn those blocks are core when they sell the first one at $.50 and the price goes to $.60.

     

    In the original movie Wall Street, Gordon Gecko accumulated quietly and patiently in classic bottom feeder fashion until he'd swept the street. Then the word went out that Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel.

     

    Collectively the Axionistas put Gordon Gecko to shame with their control of Axion's float. Unfortunately they don't have enough faith in themselves. You guys have no earthly idea how mighty you are, and that's a crying shame.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • JP, I love the "float lock down" play and have made money in the past finding such situations even in stocks without Axion's potential. And I too thought we'd get to that point in this one.

     

    However at this moment I assume we have secured the float and thus we either are self churning or being churned by placement holders who care little about profits.

     

    It all seems far fetched but who in the heck is fading/selling all the shares. Maybe Axionistas fear the next raise? Otherwise we should have bounced harder than we did. I thought 100% up off of a 60 day trailing average would be about right. That has yet to have happened though.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • This board has been obsessing about the next raise since Q2 of last year. We're so damned concerned over the possibility of another beating that we invite it by cowering in fear.

     

    Since 2009 a grand total of 75 million new shares have been sold to new investors and 196 million shares have changed hands in the open market at steadily declining prices. To keep the numbers very gross there's been 100 million shares of open market buying and 100 million shares of open market selling.

     

    The cumulative FINRA short sale total since January 2010 is 58.5 million. A number that's within spitting distance of the total number of shares sold in 2009 and the additional shares that were sold by Quercus, Fursa and the Mega-C Trust. That takes the private placement shares out of the picture. There's been another 40 million shares of selling that we can't track back to the private placement purchasers. Some of that will have been people like Mercy Jimenez who bought and lost faith. The rest has to have come from the 2012 flippers because everybody else is standing firm. They're bitching about the price but they're standing firm.

     

    The unfortunate truth is we way too much fear and it's simply not justified – unless everybody does a deer in the headlights imitation.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • JP, respectfully how do we know the 2012 Feb investors weren't largely hot money types who were expecting a double in 12 months or less and now many are exiting?

     

    If I remember correctly the placement was hard to fill which makes me wonder if those who participated were less then ideal profile. I even have wondered if they are being allowed another sip in the coming weeks/months- thus some will sell whatever they have left right now and then take a big gulp on the next raise and swing for the quick money again. Sadly, I do know that this type of investor exists and is a larger percentage than many care to assume.

     

    Anyhow, I respect what the marker is telling me yet I have held strong from prices much higher than this. I also wonder how many times I will average down. Others likely are in a similar boat. I really think the Axionistas aren't the primary source of the down drift. It's just that many have filled their bellies taking out the uglies. We need some new troops to join us. Hence, Axion might want to consider a ZBB tact and get some PR out there. For your part I applaud you for the HUGE herculean efforts you have put forth so far and we may still win this war with you leading the 300 or so of us. http://bit.ly/WfDX61
    3 Feb 2013, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • I'm assuming that many of the February investors who collectively bought 27,651,862 shares were hot money.

     

    A total of 84,154,000 shares have traded since February 1st, which works out to a minimum of 42,077,000 shares on the sell side. Of that total 18,811,639 were reported as FINRA shorts.

     

    That leaves 23,265,361 shares that had to come from February investors and Axionistas who lost faith.

     

    There hasn't been enough price volatility this year to support meaningful short-term trading. We also know that the double-count assumption is usually off by a significant margin because so many trades are in-house crosses at the MM level instead of sales followed by purchases.

     

    The numbers simply don't support the idea that February purchasers are sitting on piles of stock that they can use to pressure the market because they're trying to set the stage for another bargain round.
    3 Feb 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • John: I took a quick look at the stuff in my instablog & spreadsheets, conjured up a couple more quick numbers and I think they support you. Foregoing "the whole enchilada", unless someone requests the whole meal, I looked at average buy and sell percentages and short statistics before the June through August time, during that time and subsequent to it, based on estimations of when "big uglies" (initially some of the 2009 folks, issuance buyers and sellers, then Mega-C shares) were active and when I thought they were nearing exhaustion beginning in August.

     

    Keeping in mind that a lot of Axionistas were "loading up", and maybe a bunch that are invisible to us were also, during much of this time, the buy and sell percentages, along with daily shorts, seem to suggest that selling pressure has not accelerated even though many potential buyers are already full to the gills with shares.

     

    Daily averages for the periods noted:
    _______|buys%|sells%| Sht K |Sht%
    Feb-May| 44.67 | 53.55| 59.59 |20.50
    Jun-Aug | 57.28 | 41.76| 97.92 |27.72
    Sep-Feb| 49.44 | 49.79 | 62.12 |17.01

     

    Supporting the chosen time frame, and I think your assessment as well, is the summary data of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'". From the blog:
    ======================...
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

     

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

     

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

     

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

     

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

     

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 28.33%, min: 28.33%, max: 28.33%
    ======================...

     

    I hope some of this, which is captured only in support of my *hypothesis*, might help put others' minds at ease, as it has mine.

     

    My assessment, in summary, is there is not the type of behavior that I think exhibited when excessive selling pressure was observed.

     

    There's more thoughts to this, including price behavior, but doesn't seem to me to need discussion to reach the conclusion you reached and I reach.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Feb 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • I think your focus may be a little out of kilter because the stock that went to the Mega-C bankruptcy trustee would not normally show up in the short report. The reason is simple. Bankruptcy trustees have their own special exemptions under the securities laws.

     

    Based on the way the FINRA numbers came together, I believe we had Manatuck Hill in first (accompanied by Quercus) and Blackrock was the last to exit. My cumulative total FINRA short is 58.5 million, which is close enough to my 2009 plus Quercus plus Fursa total of 57.1 million to be very scary. While my experience is that market makers try very hard to avoid getting short or long in penny stocks, some short selling has to happen if they want to maintain an orderly market.

     

    Right now I believe we probably have a few sellers left who can drop 100,000 share blocks to create the appearance of weight, but I'm confident that there's nobody left with real weight.
    3 Feb 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • iind ... I'd prefer to stick with equity financing for the present. Let Axion land some large orders and I could change my mind.

     

    I figure Axion needs PbC sales on the order of $6.5 m (think 12K PbCs) to break even if it maintains historical R&D and other activity levels. Definitely doable without further invest in capacity, but not highly probable (based on current info).

     

    Delivery of NSC's NS999 order supplies $0.5m of that sum this year. Order of batteries for an NSC OTR locomotive plus ePower purchases of PbCs for an additional nine trucks (making 10) this year might generate another $1m. A 4MW PC sale might generate ~$1m.

     

    OTOH, disclosure of any new orders in the near future will only serve to confirm marketability of the product and raise investor confidence in future return. Share is likely rise appreciably in wake of such an announcement and the next capital raise could be priced higher than the last one. In addition to improved commercial success outlook prospect of additional future shareholder dilution will have been reduced by expiration of 2.8 m QT options in January.

     

    FWIW
    2 Feb 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • John, I understand your points and it's not the first time you've made them. They are important points and worthy of repeat.

     

    I'm just saying I agree and I would favor the risk of a bank loan over raising funds at 0.30 USD/share at this point in time given what Axion has shown the market. The last raise was different and perhaps warranted the 0.35 USD level of capital raise. Given what we know now it's just not appropriate.

     

    PS Sorry I should have run the calcs on the percentage of ownership that the raise price points would create. Just didn't think it important to the point being made. But accuracy is always important so I should have taken the time to do so.

     

    PPS I've not been following this story near as long as yourself so if I sound frustrated based on what I see you must be having hair removal episodes. :(
    2 Feb 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • I've never seen a bank that would make that kind of speculative loan to a development stage company. They were free wheeling with sub-prime mortgages to busboys, but it simply doesn't happen with development stage public companies. Credit is a pipe dream.

     

    My only hair removal episodes come when I hear people worrying about the price of the next raise and trying to bottom feed at the same time. Acting collectively, the stockholders of every public company establish the value of their company.

     

    When the big uglies were pounding stock into the market it made a world of sense to play the blood sport of the bottom feeder. Today the big uglies are gone and so are the substantial bulk of the February 2012 investors. The only thing left for the bottom feeders to eat is each other.

     

    Unfortunately it's damned near impossible for management to argue that Axion is worth $X when the stockholders peg the value at $X/y. There is no Bid Fairy to drive the stock price.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Bummed as I am that people are willing to sell @ $0.32, because they can't be making any appreciable profit at the price, I agree that raising money for anything but manufacturing should be with equity. The only other thing I can think of is the issue of long dated corporate bonds into the "junk" market. I don't know if a company like Axion would even qualify for that. Just assuming debt via a bank loan without cashflow is the height of risk. One missed installment to a competitor holding the paper and the whole shebang is gone.

     

    Sadly, there is nothing going on that will change the share price in the markets eyes (and, YES, I know "rumors" well) until facts change. I do hope (a bad investment thesis) that a potential need customer sees enough value to become a strategic investor or contributing partner like Xtreme Energy has with Duke.
    2 Feb 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Worth the read, it's a biotech, but just like AXPW:

     

    @jb498 asks, "What do you think about APPA and HEB?"
    I have followed the AP Pharma (APPA_) story for a while now, tweeted about the stock occasionally and favorably, but haven't written on it mainly because of two related concerns: 1) The high concentration of hedge funds that essentially own and control most of the outstanding shares; and 2) valuation.

     

    AP Pharma's anti-emetic drug APF530 is under FDA review with an approval decision expected March 31. I believe FDA will approve the drug. I'm also a believer in APF530's commercial potential and the Medicare pricing advantage over Eisai's Aloxi, which I won't discuss here because Larry Smith does a good job of it in a recent Seeking Alpha column. Read that.

     

    With that said: AP Pharma is controlled by a gaggle of hedge funds -- Baker B