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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (657) | Send Message
     
    Did I make first?!
    3 Feb 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Dos?
    3 Feb 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    tres?
    3 Feb 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Congeniality yet again 8-(

     

    I think it's worth taking a look at the volume chart and the base trend line that I've put in based on the two low points over the last year and a half. That kind of drop off over a period of two weeks is very surprising.
    3 Feb 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    'Tis interesting chart, JP.
    3 Feb 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    210 followers and counting!
    3 Feb 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Matter of events - or non events - or events anticipated

     

    As you have suggested John - charts do not drive stock prices - events (positive and negative) do

     

    Positive are on their way - when is anyone's guess at this stage

     

    Apologies to all if I have driven Ed away. Not my intention - just the opposite
    3 Feb 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Ed posted a comment in APC 202 this morning so he's obviously still around.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Feb 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if it would make sense to make separate question answer instablog for Dr. B's answers so that people can easily be referred back to it.
    3 Feb 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Dimca
    I think he's just fitting us into his schedule. Sometimes his sleep schedule. Many of his posts are 3-4 am.
    Usually a couple in a row. mostly not 2 days in a row.

     

    SM
    I think some instablogs with question and answers is a good idea.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    Another way to easily refer back to his answers is to look at his comment string from Dr. B's page.
    4 Feb 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Battery-powered intercity trains possible, says government study

     

    "The big caveat, one known all too well by owners of electric cars, is the lifespan of the hugely expensive battery, with the eight-tonne rail version anticipated to cost around £0.5m a piece. While a diesel train would cost around £160,000 a year to run on a daily 600-mile service, the battery version would be more than £240,000 a year, of which £150,000 alone would be set aside for battery replacement.

     

    Diesel prices would need to more than double for battery-only trains to become viable, said John Molyneux from the rail arm of the Lloyd's Register group, who led the report."

     

    http://bit.ly/XQSrGW
    3 Feb 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the reported estimate of an 8 ton battery for a 600 mile train trip is off by a couple orders of magnitude unless the train is ultra-light.

     

    At 150 wh/kg an 8,000 kg battery would have about the same energy as a mini-fleet of 14 Tesla Model S with 85 kWh battery packs.
    3 Feb 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately these types of articles don't share many of the assumptions that support the conclusions.

     

    They should be looking at diesel/battery hybrids first anyway. That's what I hear!
    3 Feb 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    So, John. What you're saying is that to build a cost-competetive, all-battery train like this, that there is "some dissembly required"? ;-)
    3 Feb 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Unless you do the whole thing with honeycomb carbon fiber and route it through frictionless vacuum tubes.
    3 Feb 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2169) | Send Message
     
    Yeah! Vacuum driven trains, right out of the 1800s!

     

    You can run them thru tunnels and so forth. Underneath cities. That is very hard to do with a steam engine, if you want to also breathe :-)
    4 Feb 2013, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    "route it through frictionless vacuum tubes. "

     

    That's Elon Musk's Hyperloop concept..
    5 Feb 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, I have a sneaky suspicion that is why he made the comment.

     

    http://bit.ly/VGB6GB
    5 Feb 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    And here in lies one of the problems. Perception.

     

    The future of energy
    Batteries included?
    The search for better ways of storing electricity is hotting up

     

    "Most batteries, from the ancient, lumbering lead-acid monsters used to start cars, to the sleek, tiny lithium cells that power everything from e-book readers to watches, have three essential components:..."

     

    http://econ.st/Y3wHIH
    3 Feb 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2738) | Send Message
     
    Super Bowl over. Now back to our normal programming.
    3 Feb 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Could Axion have prevented the power outage?
    4 Feb 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    The best news of all the stock trading of the last year set out by JP is that the base of shareholders are now more aligned with the potential of the technology.

     

    Each and every positive news event can now move the stock significantly to the upside. $0.60 for many of us is a double - not bad even if it takes up to 24 months

     

    No idea when...but we are certainly better positioned for a move up and very limited on the downside

     

    Just the risk to reward one looks for. Difficult to find

     

    And there is so much more to look forward to over the next 5 years
    4 Feb 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    The timing of the next stock dilution is a concern.
    Hopefully we will get some of the positive news "waiting in the woods" to come out into public sight first.
    4 Feb 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Dilution is the most abused and misunderstood word in the financial markets.

     

    Small companies regularly issue new shares to raise operating capital. Each stock offering increases the total number of shares outstanding but the proceeds from the offering make the pie larger.

     

    When stock is sold to new investors at a per share price that exceeds the pre-offering book value per share, the new investors suffer dilution of their investment and the legacy stockholders enjoy an accretion in value.

     

    Every bartender knows that you can't dilute a beer by adding a shot of whisky. Finances are no different.
    4 Feb 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    How many investors in venture-stage companies care a whit about book value in assessing the value of their holdings? I sure won't view any sale of AXPW at 30c or so "accretive" to the value of my holdings, no matter what some meaningless increase in book value might suggest to an accountant.

     

    I haven't sold a share, btw. Years from now, I expect to look back with gratitude for the rather extended opportunity to pick up shares within the recent trading range.
    4 Feb 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Rational investors in venture stage and transition stage companies cannot ever believe their companies will be able to succeed without selling more shares. It's the nature of the beast.

     

    We all hope that future stock sales will go off at a high price instead of a low one so that we can keep a disproportionally large slice of the pie, but using pejorative terms to describe ordinary, normal and expected business developments is irrational.

     

    Completed financing transactions should have investors dancing in the aisles. Unfortunately the misuse of the word dilution to describe things that are absolutely not dilutive has stockholders throwing snits.
    4 Feb 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    My concern is perception driving the price down. Not the event itself.
    4 Feb 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    I don't disagree with that assessment. Unfortunately stockholders have been obsessing about "the next capital raise" since a month or two after the closing of "the last capital raise." Frankly I'll be happy to have this one in the rear view mirror because it's importance has been blown out of proportion for too long.
    4 Feb 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1804) | Send Message
     
    I think many of us were traumatized by the vicious 30%+ drop that followed the raise, yet they don't realize the drop was because AXPW had already run up over 100%. Technically, the stock was primed to drop at any excuse.

     

    The capital raise itself is only a 10% discount to market. I actually think this time it will have the opposite effect for the same terms - the overhang relief will actually spur lots of buyers waiting in the wings. And, the stock had been consolidating for a while, so there is nothing holding it back.

     

    We're really fearing over nothing, especially since a strategic financing is still in the cards.
    4 Feb 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    My sentiments precisely, Ranma.

     

    I have wanted this raise to be in the rear view mirror for a long time because once it finally goes down -- for whatever it is -- that will be a baseline, and all the lurkers waiting for that shoe to drop will feel comfortable buying in.

     

    No one likes to see pps drop after they buy, so the whole world is waiting for this raise.

     

    Not me, by the way, as I am in at 40 cents and expect to be a millionaire 2 or 3 years from now.
    4 Feb 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    dimca - yup, and that next doubling may be from $0.01 to $0.02 (or 0.10 to 0.20 if we're lucky), similar to what SIRI underwent.......big guys lurk.........deal........ get what they want............and then what's left wins together, proportionally.
    4 Feb 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2431) | Send Message
     
    Lost in translation? Or Diversification gone slightly askew?

     

    "Mainly because of difficulties in China, Daimler's Mercedes-Benz brand is now the smallest of the big three German luxury carmakers after BMW and Volkswagen's Audi, which together dominate the global market for high-end saloons and SUVs."

     

    Daimler aims for China impetus with BAIC Motor stake Updated: 2013-02-04 14:29

     

    http://bit.ly/XS6UlW
    4 Feb 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    Johnson Controls has sold more than 18,000,000 AGM batteries for stop/start:

     

    http://bit.ly/WMbcfv
    4 Feb 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Potential WHOOPS?

     

    "The company has sold in excess of 18million Absorbent Glass Mat (AGM) batteries which are typically used in the start-stop systems".

     

    They sold 19MM, but "typically used ..." doesn't suggest they were all for s/s, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Feb 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, HTL. Still, that they have sold more than 18M AGMs makes me wonder where all the stop/start not working complaints are, even if all AGMs sold are not used in s/s applications.

     

    I'm hoping we are only months away before this phenomena commences.
    4 Feb 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    I think it has started but not hitting the main pages yet as you are suggesting! It is coming though! If you Google "BMW auto stop start not working" there are many links to BMW owners who are experiencing battery problems.

     

    http://bit.ly/WUkOaO

     

    "My stop start has not been working for about 2 months so I took it to my local dealer Eastern BMW in Edinburgh. They found that the battery was severely discharged due to me using the car for mostly short journeys. They charged me £108 for investigating the fault and charging the battery overnight.

     

    I was not happy with this and have made a complaint direct to BMW. Surely during development of the X1 they tested it under these conditions? I have heated seats and auto lights which I think use a lot of power. What i am saying to BMW is that the battery and alternator should be heavy duty to cope with the short journeys and power all of the electrical items on my car.
    The car is only 15 months old and I should not have to pay for this.

     

    I am still awaiting a reply from BMW."

     

    http://bit.ly/14AeY0X

     

    "Hi All
    I have BMW X1 which start stop on this car never worked during the last two years .I spoken to two dealers and gave me several excuses,such as cold winter .short distance driving and more .
    this is absouloutly rediculious.
    I bought this car to save money and if the start stop not working I think BMW should ive me compensation on the extra fule that I have used ,this is tio me a kind of rip off,.if you have similar experience please support as similar situation in USA they mange to take Honda to court and get ,compensation 1100c9c"

     

    RBrun357
    4 Feb 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    This is exactly what kept my money in Exide last year and prevented me from purchasing any Axion until a month ago. I kept saying to myself, "the automakers would not keep putting AGM into s/s cars if the batteries did not work well." Makes sense.

     

    The turning point for me was when both JCI and Exide informally capitulated and began scrambling for a better solution. Li for JCI and ultracaps for Exide. In fact, JCI said that s/s "will require a non-lead acid solution." They didn't just say it, they said it publicly. They didn't just say it publicly, they printed that statement and made it part of a presentation. There is no way in my mind that a company would claim its product(s) were inadequate for the future unless that was truly the case.

     

    So if you are wondering where all the s/s AGM complaints are, I would bet they are sitting in a huge pile on some executives' desks at JCI and Exide. And they come from the automakers themselves, not from individual customers, who probably don't really care if their s/s systems stop working after a while.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357: Toally aware that BMW complaints have been surfacing for at least 6 months, as this blog has previously tracked. What I want is a class action law suit, or for CNBC's, Phil Labeau (sp?) to turn up some ugly truths about how new AGM batteries are a stop/start EPA estimated miles per gallon circumventor.

     

    I want consumer fraud being discussed in the MSM.

     

    I want the public to know that they are being scammed.

     

    I want the public to know that no longer are some types of AGM batteries, like Exide's, offer a pro rata warranty.

     

    Time will tell....

     

    4 Feb 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Face it Maya. You're just a trouble maker at heart. Next thing we know you'll be criticizing lithium-ion batteries and cars with plugs.

     

    Litigation in Europe is very from we're used to in the US. Over yonder the deck is stacked against the consumer who doesn't have a pile of cash to splash out for legal fees and monetary awards are far more closely tied to actual damages suffered.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (786) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    I am right there with you!
    4 Feb 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    That's the kinda guy Maya is.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Don't know if it's going anywhere but I posted it before.

     

    http://bit.ly/WKfZkM
    4 Feb 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Not saying it is related to stop-start, but Exide is down much more than the market today.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking too much emphasis has been placed on "inadequacy of AGMs" for S/S. One might do well to keep in mind that BMW implementation is BMW's and may not fare as well as S/S implementations using JCI batteries. I make this point in part due to memory of calling the APC community's attention to a technical training program implemented in Europe by JCI regarding testing and "servicing" batteries in S/S systems.

     

    Dr.B advised a few concentrators back (or in comments on Brand X board) that AGM batteries can be "refreshed" after three months or so. If AGMs can be refreshed periodically through pulsating or over charge regimes, the service life of those batteries is not limited to just a few months. But, appropriate service of the battery as well as other vehicular systems is required. Dealers of auto OEMs installing JCI batteries may be quite happy with AGM supported S/S systems as maintenance of their functionality would tend to support reliance on dealers for auto maintenance. But, routine maintenance service costs are likely higher on S/S if checking and refreshing batteries is part of the regime.

     

    PbC remains a better alternative for S/S, but I am certainly going to keep AGM refresh option in mind.
    4 Feb 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    I am not a backyard mechanic nor am I interested in spending yet more money taking my car into the shop for a quarterly battery top up. Just to have someone open the hood costs me $55.00.

     

    I will most likely be in the market for a new car within the next 12 months. I suspect that whatever I choose it will have Stop/Start as part of the basic package. Lots of Japanese and European brands. Very limited US brands.

     

    As you may expect Bermuda being only 21sq miles in size with a bit more that 120 miles of road, our driving is very much stop and go. Mainly because there are 60+k people and if you include trucks, buses, cars, service vehicles, mopeds, carriages and a couple of tourist trains the roads are quite congested. The sum total is about 1 vehicle per person.

     

    I have already spoken with local dealers and they all admit that S/S will be a pain in the ass and will suggest to their clients to turn it off even though the clients will be paying a premium for the system! One who is a personal friend has suggested that his dealership might disable the system before offering their vehicles for sale.

     

    I am not certain if the PbC would be of any help but certainly a dual system would be a huge waste of money.
    4 Feb 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I'm guessing that the refresh routine for the AGM batteries is handled by the vehicle charging system and the puter in the vehicle. This would however, under certain driving conditions like primarily all heavy stop urban use, reduce the savings from SS a small percent.

     

    I'd give more consideration to the level of savings in Northern climates for AGM vs PbC given the latter's ability to operate at lower temperatures along with it's more efficient DCA. I bet there is a big difference in this case. I'd also bet that SS isn't all that valuable in Northern climates with the payback moving out way beyond the life of the battery.
    4 Feb 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    As well as the fact that the loser pays costs for both sides, so the "plaintiff's bar", isn't nearly as willing to troll for "victims"!
    4 Feb 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Earnings due either later this week or next....maybe fears of a poor result?
    4 Feb 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    I want BMW to just fix the problem......with PbC, of course.

     

    Maybe they need a 787 event??? But if the press or media is going to get the attention of enough folks, it will have to be on FOX; nobody watches CNBC.

     

    As for more lawyers, et.al?? We will know that the economy is improving by the depth of depression in the lolly-lolly land of lawyers and accountants.
    5 Feb 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Hey - CBS new's finally reported on the 787 incidents, from Japan, almost 3 weeks from ground zero. Even CNBC beat that.

     

    http://cbsn.ws/UtGcpm
    5 Feb 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Due to the political prioritization used to filter "news" from "non-pc events", the wonder is that ANY of the major news organs in the United States report anything which even remotely resembles a threat to their inherent bias and overt agenda.

     

    When the problematic news MUST be reported, it is buried a mile deep and a month late. Any future questions about the journalistic standards of the newsies are thus protected, if only by a very tattered fig leaf.
    5 Feb 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Smart grids can help with blackouts.
    http://wapo.st/VLXlaO
    And that’s no small thing. Blackouts, after all, have become frustratingly common across the country. Between 2005 and 2009, there were 349 power outages in the United States that affected at least 50,000 people. That’s up from just 149 outages between 2000 and 2004, according to Massoud Amin of the University of Minnesota. Problems with the power grid now cost the economy some $150 billion per year.
    4 Feb 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Hi Dr. E Buiel.

     

    Thanks for sharing your knowledge in this forum.

     

    Let me ask You the following question:
    Finally you think Axion PbC Tech will be a Stop-Start application?

     

    Have a nice day-Carlos

     

    Note: My first language is Spanish, so forgive grammatical errors.
    4 Feb 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I really like PbC for start-stop because it actually works all of the time. The problem is that lead acid works during the 20 minute test at room temperature but not normally for the customer. Problem is getting the car companies to care about the former.
    5 Feb 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Market seldom gets the effect of dilution right in the short term. This can be frustrating to existing shareholders

     

    We must remember a few things. The company received cash that goes on the balance sheet making it more valuable

     

    This is especially true if the cash is spent wisely on positive corporate developments (= AXPW)

     

    In the longer term the cash facility to execute should come back to a much higher value for the company

     

    That is what those who invest the cash in the company are betting on. They do so after much due diligence and analysis of the potential for superior returns

     

    Bottom line - if you believe in management - and the business case - any dilution in price offers an even better risk reward
    4 Feb 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I understand that dilution of the value I perceive in my shares of AXPW may be a necessary evil on the road to the wonderful long-term gains I anticipate, but I would hope a management commanding the serious interest of numerous top-tier companies would have the creativity to leverage the value of its IP in such a way to obtain financing at more reasonable prices.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Alpha and dimca - TG's best ticket out of Dodge may just be to shut er' down to the skeleton crew necessary to produce what ever it can currently sell; then restaff and ramp up according to comfirmed sales in the coffer along with up front payments, however far away that may be.

     

    No sales; no costs (well, the minimum, mothball costs).

     

    Fixed Asset preservation at its best; horrible impact on ALL variable costs; yes, people included. That's hard ball.

     

    But that also is what private sector does when all hooks are in the water and no bites; when there is no deep pocket available that will just provide a loan at no cost, or very little cost (when no bridge loans are available for an undetermined period of time......).

     

    But then, such a pocket would have to be in love with AXPW.

     

    Where are they? The loving, friendly, deep pocket, types........

     

    Remember, this is not a Govt run/subsidized organization able to just write another check paid by the taxpayer.

     

    But it does have some capable supporters if they are not greedy but just want AXPW to hang in there, be they BMW, NS, etc.; problem is they also are profit oriented businesses. Are they hungrier than big battery?????? Well, yes, if their future profitability and productivity also depends on the PbC success; yes, but note, I did not say AXPW success!!!!
    4 Feb 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    It's beginning to sound like Omy has hacked your SA account NJB.
    4 Feb 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Omy? Don't know Omy. Will look later..

     

    Did I wrongly say something about Li failures or "Boeing's PbC" again??
    4 Feb 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3446) | Send Message
     
    All to follow JMHO...

     

    I try to imagine (within the limits of my feeble sphere of cognition) what any conversation TG might be undertaking right now would sound like--

     

    Everything is a year further down the road. NSC has taken delivery of batteries. BMW is that much deeper into their process, and maybe on the verge of fleet testing. Li-ion and has taken a bit of a black eye in the public's perception . Hub is UL certified. ePower and APU efforts are percolating. The toll contract continues. Throw GM and a large asian OEM in the mix. Powercube has got a year under its belt now. USN/DOD still looking to get green...

     

    Add in all the NDA and behind the curtain kind of things going on... look at the timeline going forward... regulatory drivers, industry evolvements...big muscle movements starting to be measured in months away, not years..

     

    I gotta think more than a few big investor types / institutions/ funds are going to be willing to listen to that story and like what they hear and the chances going forward. This year sure feels like it's going to be dispositive... Axion only needs one solid break its way and then it's basically clear to the horizon. These guys don't burn a lot of cash. If TG can convincingly make the case that this is very likely the last sustainment raise that's going to be necessary, the story gets that much more attractive...

     

    In sum, the environment is better this year. The story is better this year. Axion has a year's more worth of data, progress, market knowledge, and partner knowledge under its hat. Overall, TG has a stronger hand this year compared to last.

     

    Bottom line: He'll be able to raise what he needs and it isn't going to be all that ugly.
    4 Feb 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, Naked. Let's just shutter 'er up. Close the doors during the very month BMW "may" announce fleet testing. And while were at it, let's just ignore the next call from that top five Asian global automaker.

     

    Why not fire half the employees? Just when very soon Norfolk is going to roll out the first electrified switcher, ever.

     

    And since we once used to be a "cigar company," let's go another direction and fire up Lark Cigarettes again, we've got plenty of activated carbon laying around for the filters.

     

    Gotta love that notion of yours about gaining a bridge loan at "no cost." Yeah...that's the ticket. Hey Popeye, I'll gladly buy you a hamburger on Tuesday, if you buy me one today.

     

    And exactly what the heck does this mean that you wrote: "Are they hungrier than big battery??????"

     

    I've got six question marks in wondering what fabulous great high percentage alcoholic cheapo beverage you're imbibing.
    4 Feb 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Man, I suddenly got a bad taste in my mouth and my a$% started hurting. Crude I know.

     

    What a PITA. OMY that is.
    5 Feb 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    48etc.----

     

    1......1/2.....1/4.......

     

    1......1/2......1/4......

     

    ...but just never gets there, even tho each is closer than the previous.

     

    Now, that's not my hope, but picking one over the other because WE don't know, is no more than hope, or a better hope, etc.

     

    Beyond any reasonable doubt.......???? Not yet!!!

     

    Some may even be saying "yadda, yadda, yadda......".
    5 Feb 2013, 03:12 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Maya - you should listen to yourself.......

     

    "....the very month..X...may...."

     

    "....ignore the next call....."

     

    ".....very soon Y....."

     

    The question is: WHO is "hungriest" and also willing to belly-up?

     

    Clear stuff.....

     

    which let's one clearly see 1.....1/2.....1/4........ maybe even better is (95....97.5.....98.75....
    5 Feb 2013, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    48: Don't forget the proposals in "mature" stages resulting from the presentation to a lot of grid players in the conference last year. We don't what "mature" means, but it sounds more positive than "infancy".

     

    Looking at how things generally go though, I've penciled in the party for sometime next year. :-((

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2013, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    NJB. Omy is a long-time basher, who people suspect is paid to do so under several aliases. I have noticed increasingly on this board that, when any comment conveys a less-than-rosy outlook, the poster is labeled as suspect.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    NGS - I'm clean, and somewhat consistent on either side of the arguments.......<:=...
    5 Feb 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Keyboard
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    NGS,

     

    It is possible to honestly confuse an obsessively worrying investor lacking informative analysis for a troll.

     

    If a non-troll learns that their writing has started to become indistinguishable from that of a troll it might be a good time to look in the mirror.
    5 Feb 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    I agree. But you should apply the same standard to the overly optimistic as well as the overly pessimistic. There are a lot of real risks with this stock, along with a lot of real potential upside. I am starting to see cases where those that point out valid risks are shouted down, but those with wild fantasies of upside get nothing but thumbs up. Just my opinion. I'll go back to lurking now.
    6 Feb 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Axion is a high risk stock and investors who buy at current price levels could lose $0.32 a share if everything goes to hell in a handbag.

     

    On the other hand, testing and validation activities in several industries that have been going on in stealth mode for three years are rapidly approaching key decision points. Any of these target markets could be a stand-alone company maker. Currently the presumption seems to be that all of the current development programs will be failures. Once the first design win occurs, the presumption will shift and the market will assume that success breeds success.

     

    In June of 2011, the average market capitalization of Ener1, Valence, Altair Nanotechnologies, A123 Systems and Maxwell was $303 million. Axion's current market capitalization is $36 million.

     

    When one weighs the risk of a $.32 loss against the increasingly likely upside potential that comes with a first tier design win, the risk/reward ratio couldn't be more attractive.
    6 Feb 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    In February 2013, Germany begins solar energy storage subsidy for PV systems with a capacity smaller than 30 kW, providing a grant of EUR 800 (USD 1,080) per kWh of storage. No additional certification will be needed, and self-consumed solar power will not be eligible for participation in the nation's feed-in tariff.

     

    http://bit.ly/WUaBv4

     

    The Hub is rated at: Residential/Small Community 10 kW/12kWh Energy Storage System

     

    http://bit.ly/LuUGw1

     

    That is approximately a $13,000 subsidy towards the purchase price of the Hub.

     

    Hope Rosewater is pursuing this market.

     

    P.S. - please forward to appropriate people. It was disconcerting to hear a report that they may also try selling the Hub with other battery technology b/c of the negative connotation associated with lead.
    4 Feb 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    SM
    there are other reasons I think more likely.
    If you want a power source that will last for longer periods.
    PbC may not be your best choice.
    People who want more than a day or so of power may find LA a better answer.
    People who have space or weight constraints may go to other chemistrys. Or even want the cool factor and are willing to pay for it.
    4 Feb 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3446) | Send Message
     
    Battery: a ~$1000 dollar bottle used to store a commodity that costs 10 cents.

     

    Now what that commodity, the KWh, is actually *worth* is a whole different story based on time, location, and situation.

     

    ISTM the PbC makes the most economic sense in applications where it will be cycled hard and often. Once in a blue-moon energy backup probably isn't it.... *unless* it's perhaps (ie the hub) where there's a solar/wind source in the mix so there's something for the batteries to do everyday...

     

    But that only works if the batteries last for years.
    4 Feb 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Please remember the HUB is an Axion Power product sold by Rosewater. I don't think the HUB will ever have anything but PbCs in it.
    4 Feb 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (397) | Send Message
     
    Texas is raising it's max wholesale price to $9000/MWh. Then the $0.10 bottle is worth $9.
    4 Feb 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3446) | Send Message
     
    That's peak / crisis pricing though, no? How many MWh's will actually sell for that in a given year? A dozen? Hundreds? A few thousand? I certainly don't know, but curious...
    4 Feb 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    Froggey,

     

    It looks like the Hub can be used as an energy storage device for solar.

     

    "Problem: Your environmental footprint is at a maximum and your resourcefulness is at a minimum.
    Solution: Reverse the trend and easily integrate
    eco friendly renewable solar energy."

     

    http://bit.ly/RXDm9k

     

    IMO, it would be a very bad thing for the Hub if a $45,000.00 battery bank for residential use could not also function with and integrate solar.
    4 Feb 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I have said this before and it should be noted in response to the comment posted by my friend Stefan.

     

    The HUB was designed as a home energy storage unit that insured the homeowner of a pure 60 cycle current all the time. This purity protects many expensive electronics. It was not designed to act as a everyday power storage. It could do that. It could act as a behind the meter provider of stored energy. It could cycle all day and make the owners money if the grid accepted its product. But the Hub wasn't designed for that. It could be, but at its present cost probably won't be.
    4 Feb 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    It appears we may be splitting hairs in that the Hub can definitely be used as a UPS for a short time with solar and wind inputs as described in Rosewater's brochure. However, the Hub as I understand it is not set up for longer term storage.

     

    The question with reference to the Germany solar storage article I cited above is whether the Hub set-up could qualify for the subsidy and perform the tasks needed for a homeowner wanting to integrate solar. I am not sure whether it could or not.

     

    The Hub would allow the homeowner to integrate solar and wind and would theoretically cut down on the renewable pollution JP has spoken about. My real questions are whether it would qualify for the subsidy with its current set-up and would the homeowner need to get a second longer term storage system to make the solar more valuable?
    4 Feb 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    Yep, we agree and are splitting hairs.

     

    It would be nice if the HUB were inexpensive enough to become practical product for the large German market.
    5 Feb 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Stefan.
    Anyone know how hard it would be-- in terms of red tape--to start selling the HUB in Germany?
    4 Feb 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    CE Marking and probably a distributor. I'd also guess you might like to localize the controls component set. Not sure how well supported things like the inverter and Modicon controls are in the EU. Anyway, all would have to be researched.

     

    http://bit.ly/11l1qbL
    4 Feb 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    Interestingly, Schneider Electric, which is submitting applications for microgrid work with ZBB in Connecticut has modicon control offerings:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/anh...

     

    http://tinyurl.com/a4t...

     

    Schneider Electric in figures
    €22.4 billion in sales in 2011
    130,000+ employees in more than 100 countries.
    39% of revenue in new economies

     

    http://bit.ly/14AeTKQ
    With a name like Schneider, I was thinking it was a German company, but it looks like it is based in France.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2431) | Send Message
     
    Could a smart grid have prevented the Super Bowl blackout?
    Posted by Brad Plumer on February 4, 2013

     

    http://wapo.st/VLXlaO

     

    "That said, it’s worth observing that other cities have managed to avoid stadium blackouts through smarter technology that allows grid operators to identify problems more quickly and fix the system in real time. This was the case with the Orange Bowl in 2011, as Michael Grunwald ... "
    4 Feb 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan, I didn't realize they also controlled Telemecanique as I've used their machine controllers as well as Modicon. Anyway, doesn't look like Modicon would be an issue in Europe. My perspective is somewhat dated when Modicon was primarily in the states.
    4 Feb 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    Interesting November chart showing that Activated Carbon-
    saw imports of $16,390,297 in November. This is a change of 5% from the previous month.

     

    The chart also tracks month-to-month importations globally, back to Dec. 2011, and the web page also shows the top five international November 2012 importers of activated carbon, none of which includes the US.

     

    Note to Jon Springer: Last November, Sri Lanka imported $2.23M worth of activated carbon, fourth most in the world, only behind Germany, Canada, and India.

     

    http://bit.ly/WKizXQ
    4 Feb 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. Thanks for the heads up Maya. Yes, Sri Lanka is working on variations of an electric car. Had a wide ranging conversation with one very wealthy executive that touched on this topic; and said executive has activated carbon plants in another country IIRC.

     

    Not in the best of the health at the moment. If you PM me, I'll circle back to it when I'm operating at full speed again.
    4 Feb 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Keyboard
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Maya, re
    "top five international November 2012 importers of activated carbon, none of which includes the US."

     

    Aren't those the top 5 countries that the US is importing FROM? That's why the chart would not include the US.

     

    Chart title is "November 2012 U.S. Imports"
    5 Feb 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    Keyboard: Good point. Thanks. I was wondering why the US was not a top importer. I guess I read the chart backwards.

     

    Nice catch. Thanks again for the correction.
    5 Feb 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2431) | Send Message
     
    Note the word Interim :-)

     

    DOE Publishes Interim Energy Storage Standard
    NEMA > News

     

    1/11/2013 2:00 PM
    National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) today announced that the Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage System, which was completed in October 2012, has been made available to the public.

     

    Protocol Link: http://1.usa.gov/VzSiZ8

     

    (brief) Article Link: http://bit.ly/TBap42

     

    Was mentioned in JP's recent ESIN article:
    http://bit.ly/12evTHL

     

    Stefan published link to a Viewgraph summary from Sandia:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/RIYC0Z

     

    back in APC 160.
    4 Feb 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Energy storage by liquifying air.
    http://bit.ly/WqpbLB

     

    The basic idea is to take excess energy when not needed. (Expected to be renewable energy.) use it to chill air barely beyond the liquid temp of nitrogen. Aprox 700 to one compression.
    Store till needed. while you can use ambient air to warm it.
    It expands fast enough to turn a turbine and generate power.
    A good move would be to place it next to a facility which will supply plant with waste heat. Using temps higher than what they collected the air from, they believe they can get greater than 100% return.
    OTOH
    they only have 12% efficiency at present.
    <Air Products, a large engineering firm based in Allentown, Pennsylvania, recently stopped worked on its liquid air energy storage system, citing the low price of natural gas. Without large amounts of renewable energy to store, their business model was moot.>
    4 Feb 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    Lots and lots of waste heat sources.
    4 Feb 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Away from the blog for 4 days and am 400+ messages behind. Arg! will be skimming my way to current...
    4 Feb 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    I know the feeling Tim. I spent some time with my kids this weekend. When I left we had just rolled over to Concentrator 203. I'm back this evening and we are 78 comments into Concentrator 205!
    4 Feb 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    And did you get written permission to take time off?
    I think not!

     

    Now who could have influenced you to do that?
    Hum.... Who could it have been?... I wonder...

     

    Could it have been...http://mysp.ac/XT8Yu7
    5 Feb 2013, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3446) | Send Message
     
    Well....wasn't that special...
    5 Feb 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    02/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 27500, Vol 211835, AvTrSz: 5725
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3289, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3266
    # Buys, Shares: 18 134055, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3278
    # Sells, Shares: 19 77780, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3247
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.72:1 (63.3% “buys”), 1.72:1 DlyShts 13500 (6.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.36%

     

    Well, essentially another sideways day with volume continuing to weaken and no big price spread appearing. We “wrapped” the 200-day SMA, $0.3232 yesterday, continued to have a VWAP and close above it. The oscillators I watch continued to benefit from the lack of downward pressure and most are at a pretty much neutral reading with an upward bias. But these are not bullish indicators yet.

     

    With pressure on hiatus, the MACD histogram has begun to recover a bit. But this also is not yet a bullish indicator.

     

    Tomorrow might be important – there's a short-term descending resistance defined by a line from the high of 1/15 and now touches at the highs of 1/17, 1/21 and 2/4 (today). We also have a “Dragonfly Doji”, which is followed by a reversal ... 50% of the time, or randomly! Even if we did reverse, where would we go? We've been sideways and all I can see is going backwards towards January! :))

     

    But it does signal uncertainty and I do give weight to that descending resistance as something to be watched. Especially with pps just below $0.33 – an old nemesis. It's looking a lot like that potential new rising support may be a wash out and our older one, at ~$0.305 as of yesterday, might be the one to watch. We should know in another day or two for sure.

     

    On my experimental charts, average trade size remains in what I believe is the low-to-mid area of retail, buy:sell back to normal range, daily short sales continue low, and the inflection point calculations continue to “form up”, but don't signal any pending move yet. They are showing a mild upward bias is all ATM.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Feb 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    News, HT.

     

    The chart is waiting for news.
    4 Feb 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4606) | Send Message
     
    >All ... This isn't really about anything Axion or anything battery but the markets I think need to be sold into really need to be viable. So it is to me of interest to know the operation environment. First up is just a snapshot of how the rail infrastructure is doing. Since mid-decade there has been some serious cash spent but is only a beginning.

     

    http://bit.ly/WLm4gL

     

    Now I believe Axion & electric drive will begin to see implementation in the next decade for an expansion of marine transport. The following link is just a snapshot of inland waterway infrastructure that needs attention.

     

    http://bit.ly/VADuJM

     

    And the grid

     

    http://bit.ly/XT9vfJ

     

    Now I know most here are not in favor of spending a dime on much of anything public but there really is a need to spend about $2 to 3 Trillion in the next 5 to 10 years on basic infrastructure. If the USA thinks it is going to remain competitive in world (or even interstate) trade, there are some things we, as a people, need to spend some time & money on. Some would be private, much should be government directly spending or backing the bonding authority.

     

    This just makes more sense to me than creating debt to buy the bad loans & assets from the banks which we've already spent $9 Trillion on.
    5 Feb 2013, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5003) | Send Message
     
    2013-14 electric car sales predictions, enthusiastic?
    http://bit.ly/VP7hjU
    5 Feb 2013, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Predictably enthusiastic.
    5 Feb 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    EV's to double? Am I mistaken or do the Gov subsidies end soon on these automobiles? When that ends the sales probably will stop growing.

     

    What were the Sales forecast for 2012 for the Volt alone? 60,000 units. http://aol.it/UsrG1f

     

    Doubling this years sales for all EVs won't even get the country to the 2012 Volt forecast. Very optimistic
    5 Feb 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Estimated 2012 sales included 13,916 BEVs and 39,258 PHEVs for a grand total of 53,172 cars, or 0.37% of domestic new car sales. – http://bit.ly/VOufpN

     

    While anything is possible, I believe the huge discounts we've seen over the last few months are signs of profound demand weakness.

     

    The subsidies phase out when a particular manufacturer hits 200,000 qualifying vehicles, so they're not going away anytime soon unless there's a sensibility outbreak in Congress. –http://1.usa.gov/XTybVl)
    5 Feb 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5003) | Send Message
     
    IMO, the subsidies for a Tesla are not the difference....some others, maybe? Who thought a year ago that Tesla could sell 20,000 cars with or without subsidy - much less more?
    Overall, he may be closer than we think when u add up all catagories.
    One main difference is that ALL auto manufactures are pushing them and no more delaying roll outs.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Automakers are either rolling out or canceling their EVs, but they're pushing on a string as far the customer is concerned. OEMs started with deep loss leader pricing and now they're learning that it takes a 20% or larger rebate to even maintain dismal sales levels, much less increase them.

     

    It will be fascinating to see whether Tesla survives long enough to sell 20,000 cars this year. In light of their dismal financial condition at December 31st, I have more than a few reservations.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    Tesla has almost 20,000 reservations....... for cars. There is no question that they will survive. You've been wrong about Tesla every step of the way, I don't expect that to change.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    I haven't been wrong about Tesla's financial statements. If anything I've been too generous. Their year end financial statements will be an absolute train wreck and probably include a going concern paragraph unless Elon can pull off another "October surprise" and get another couple hundred million in desperately needed financing before they report their tragic year-end financial condition.

     

    The blatant falsity of the cash flow positive tweet will be obvious very soon.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1025) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    I submit that should be your new EV car. Meets your passenger/battery weight requirements/street legal, etc. If you owned it the Tesla fans couldn't say that you didn't love an EV. (Am aware its not an EV but could easily be modified).

     

    http://slate.me/Ws6Spk
    5 Feb 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Sorry mrholty, I already have my heart set on a humble efficient HEV.

     

    http://bit.ly/A0pHdR
    5 Feb 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Since reality is sitting in traffic or crawling along in a crowd, I will keep riding the bus --- when I am not walking.
    5 Feb 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    billa .. Clearly ought just jump out there an purchase yourself a new Lamborghini. I understand their latest model goes for a mere $387.5k
    5 Feb 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    To be perfectly honest with you, D, I really do not want to own a car.

     

    I use ZipCar on the odd occasion when a car is the only tool for the job, but to me, being a city dweller, a car is just about the worst form of transportation I can think of.

     

    ZipCar for 30 or 40 bucks occasionally, a taxi for 15 bucks occasionally, a bus pass for 22 bucks a month, lots of walking exercise -- the best form of exercise there is according to my HMO (Kaiser) -- and I pay no insurance, no parking, no gas, no repairs; sit in traffic anyway; have no SUV on my rear bumper; no road ragers, texters, cellphone dialers.

     

    Back in the 60's owning a car was a blast. You could *drive*. Now even on the freeway you're in a crowd.

     

    Suits me anyway. But yeah, if you like the Lambo, by all means . . .
    5 Feb 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5003) | Send Message
     
    BSF.....I like the way you think, I would not own a car either if it was not a necessity here in KY.

     

    I read an article last week that stated the automakers biggest worry was if the car would be obsolete in a few years re: people like you, China smog, etc.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1028) | Send Message
     
    billa, I agree. Since I moved downtown and can now walk to work my quality of life is much better. No time lost to commuting, no $50 a week for gas, and I can ride a bike to most areas of attraction. I only use a car on weekends for grocery runs and such.
    6 Feb 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • astallings
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    What is the next earnings report date?
    5 Feb 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    The filing deadline this year is April 1st. Axion may be a day or two early but they generally take the time the law allows.
    5 Feb 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • astallings
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that and all the great information on this site.
    7 Feb 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone.

     

    I think this could be an excellent application for PbC Tech.:

     

    Off-Grid Power for Mobile Base Stations
    http://bit.ly/XJhkWS

     

    Other Muilti-Billonarie market:

     

    ...Pike Research forecasts that revenue for off-grid base station power will grow from $1.6 billion in 2012 to more than $10.5 billion in 2020.

     

    Combines: Alternative energy with batteries

     

    ...But the level of market pain is such that the so-called “green base station,” which is essentially a combination of renewable, battery, and fuel cell technologies, is starting to see real market traction.

     

    I leave something for your comments.-Carlos
    5 Feb 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Carlos,
    My reply to whether this would be an application for the PbC is the same as always.
    Does this application require the PbC to cycle over and over again in its "sweet spot"? If only storage is needed then there are probably cheaper solutions.
    I don't know if the PbC can be used with a fuel cell and be used effectively. Others on this board might know the answer.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Off-grid base stations are an application that replaces diesel fuel with batteries and enjoys significantly better economics. That's particularly true if the base station is 100 miles from nowhere in the middle of BFE where the cost of getting a gallon of fuel to the base station is often as high as buying the fuel in the first place.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    John, BFE, is that a town in Egypt?
    5 Feb 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    East Egypt to be specific.
    5 Feb 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Yes, EBF. ;)

     

    Edit:

     

    Actually that's all in the past now that they have done the Arab spring cleaning. Now it's EastBetterF.
    5 Feb 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    Repeated cycling "in its 'sweet spot'" is undoubtedly the "market sweet spot" for the PbC but it is by no means limited to that application. Power output of renewable systems (wind, PV) is irregular and a storage system that is relatively more capable of accepting charge when available could be economically attractive.
    5 Feb 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv,
    Of course you are correct that, like the HUB, alternate uses can be found for the PbC. However, the PbC must be cost competitive. It makes economic sense in an application where other batteries get destroyed because of the cycling. I'm not sure of the economic advantages of a PbC when used as an alternative storage device to an AGM. The Hub uses the amazingly pure 60 cycle output to distinguish itself. RR ,trucking, and S/S use the long life and high acceptance/ discharge capability. The PowerCube can pay for itself over time, behind the meter. When I look at a UPS function I would have to see what benefit the PbC has over other battery types. Long life might be enough. Perhaps when coupled with a high acceptance rate for wind. I would need to see some numbers before I jumped on that one.
    5 Feb 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Assuming economies of scale and efficiencies from the "learning curve" occur, I think the PbC might do very well in a UPS for home use - powering computers and/or other electronics with "pure" output. The economic sense appears anecdotally to me from *many* batteries replaced over decades just because they couldn't take a charge any longer even though the number of 100% discharge occurrences, and time at those states, was *very* minimal.

     

    Now, it could be the design of the electronics or charging algorithm was poor and maybe the "recovery algorithm" wasn't known and available then.

     

    But I suspect just having a battery that can go 100% down several hundred times and recover well, even without the "recovery algorithm", would justify the (expected by me) small additional expense.

     

    The time saved just not reordering batteries so often might justify it to me.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    " I'm not sure of the economic advantages of a PbC when used as an alternative storage device to an AGM. "

     

    I think you have missed the basic point of my argument, i.e. - AGMs may not be particularly well suited to capturing PV and windpower output due to DCA limitations. PbC's technological advantage there is quite likely advantageous enough to warrant a premium over AGM in the application for many (if not all) locations.

     

    Further, AGM economic competitiveness with PbC WOULD be constrained by shorter service lives due to limited PSoC tolerance. Both PV and wind power are commonly characterized by extended periods of interruption that would lead to continuous discharge for multiple hours. If AGMs are not well suited to auto S/S because of repeated multi-minute periods of discharge they sure as he_l would not hold up as well going without recharge for hours.

     

    " I would need to see some numbers before I jumped on that one. "

     

    :-) I would need to see some numbers before jumping to your conclusion.
    5 Feb 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv
    We are not differing in what we are saying. I'm simply trying to keep the board on track as to what product we really have right now. For example. PV produced power is a known output when the sun shines. It is not variable and an AGM designed for it cann accept it. I suspect a wind generator is controlled so it would introduce storage the same way. Not the same as a train coming to a stop and generating God knows how much power. This, to me, is where the PbC shines. It is why it is valuable.
    Again, I don't know the numbers. Just suspecting that UPS will be harder to justify economically. I hope not. But I gave up on hopium two weeks ago. :-)
    5 Feb 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Continuo:

     

    This Pike Research report examines the market for off-grid power for mobile base stations, focusing on renewable and alternative energy sources. The report includes a detailed analysis of the technology readiness of such systems, as well as an overview of the most likely technology combinations, including renewable generation with batteries and fuel cells, renewable generation with backup batteries, and standalone fuel cells. Market forecasts are provided for revenue, number of deployments, and capacity in megawatts, under base and optimistic scenarios, through 2020.

     

    Termino.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    ZBB is in the hybrid market too.

     

    http://yhoo.it/Xlpt1X

     

    This application uses supercapacitors rather than batteries.

     

    I believe this may be the set-up

     

    http://bit.ly/WrPYXO
    5 Feb 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    I think ZBBs move into controller technology may prove to have been very smart. While it's a more competitive market than batteries and doesn't have anywhere near the barriers to entry, the testing cycle is significantly shorter and facilities to make controllers are a good deal less costly than facilities to make batteries.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I believe you are right.
    There seems to have occurred a reorganization wherein Variable Torque Motors has gone away, replaced by Crosspoint Kinetics, which is wholly owned by Cummins Crosspoint.
    5 Feb 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    Interesting write up of this parallel hybrid. Is there two or three sentence comparison of a parallel hybrid to a series hybrid?

     

    "Saving fuel and reducing emissions is what the VTM S-3000 is all about. But it also happens to be the most affordable hybrid power system on the market. And it’s a real workhorse. Automatically adding torque ahead of the engine to boost acceleration and then conserving energy normally lost in the braking process. It’s also 1,000 pounds lighter than alternative systems because instead of batteries it uses ultracapacitors to save energy. Not only is it practical, it’s proven. The VTM S-3000 has been beta tested by fleets on-road for two years. We’re pretty sure it will pass your scrutiny as well. That’s because the price is significantly less than any other hybrid out there. Now you can go green without going broke."

     

    http://bit.ly/NSZph2
    5 Feb 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    On to the next guess for future energy storage. Or is it "we're Baaaaack"? The Brits, even clearer what's coming in 2040. :))

     

    UKH2Mobility interim report finds potential for 1.6M hydrogen-powered vehicles on UK roads by 2030, with annual sales of 300K units

     

    http://bit.ly/12qoDZA

     

    And another article on opposed piston diesels.

     

    Achates Power opposed-piston diesel for TARDEC will demonstrate multi-cylinder configuration

     

    http://bit.ly/11QfAw7
    5 Feb 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    "Successful commercialization of the technology will require Government to work in true partnership with industry."

     

    In other words, we need the government to either buy these vehicles for themselves or subsidize them to the point of almost being free to get consumers to buy them. Oh, and lots of grants/non-repayable loans to build the factories too please!!!
    5 Feb 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Xtreme Power Celebrates Best Quarter Yet with Four New Projects:
    http://yhoo.it/WOFT3K

     

    Just a PR regarding the completion of 4 previously publicized projects. The question is, are they getting any more projects lined up?
    5 Feb 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    Man! We are some gabby folks!

     

    Having received an email in my Hotmail account from Seeking Alpha Moderation that a comment of mine was deleted -- it was about how JP would have "mental mas." if he could be interviewed by Phil Lebeau -- and I agree that that is probably a phrase that should not be used -- Seeking Alpha, included as part of the email, wrote that they average around 100,000 comments per month.

     

    From the above Tracking APC Comments chart, it looks like from Nov. 21, 2012 to Jan. 21, 2013, there were about 8000 comments here in the APCs (and I'm probably low balling the number).

     

    Therefore, the APCs alone account for somewhere north of 4% of all comments made every day, every week, every month here on Seeking Alpha.

     

    Add in JPs articles and Instas, and all things energy storage related, with Axion Power emphasized, and we could easily be well north of 5% of all comments made everyday, every week, every month here on Seeking Alpha, perhaps the top dog of any social investing website on the planet.

     

    In short, 1 out of every 20 comments written here on Seeking Alpha is Axion Power/Energy Storage Sector related.

     

    Even more startling, following a quick count of how many articles Seeking Alpha has published today, already 95 articles by 1:21 PM, is all the more impressive and unprecedented in the investing cyber universe of what we Axionistas are doing.

     

    Simply amazing!
    5 Feb 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Well, now you've done triggered the associative processor!

     

    WOT!

     

    http://bit.ly/11QTnOG

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9909) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Excellent stuff! Very funny.

     

    I was expecting some Gabby Douglas references, maybe about how well she can spin around, betwixt and between the unparalleled bars!
    5 Feb 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    I keep examining other sites and can't find one I like better than SA.
    Probably an unfair test since I'm on SA everyday for all things Axion.

     

    The KNDI stockholders have a private chatroom on Yahoo. Its just not the same type of informative discussion we have here. Its better than the public boards but different from the concentrators.

     

    I hope SA keeps on improving and learning from each new venture on their website.
    5 Feb 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    BTW:
    I notice that Dr. Buiel has finally caught up with concentrator 204 and now has the long and complicated study posted on that concentrator. Can't wait to see what he made of that piece of work.

     

    For KNDI shareholders you probably know that Chinas 2nd largest auto company (Geely) is forming a 50/50 joint venture with them to produce EVs. This is a major coup for the Kandi quick battery exchange system. A large blessing to the technology.
    What happened to the Stock price? 10% up when word leaked on Friday. Another 5-10% on Monday.

     

    Not exactly Axion like ( it would have gone down on the news) but not a barn burner yet. If the JV announces its specific goals and targets then I expect a further bounce.
    5 Feb 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Here is an opportunity to ask questions regarding the energy storage market and have them relayed to energy storage experts during an internet broadcast event!

     

    See the bottom of this article:
    Energy Storage: Crossing the Chasm to Commercialization
    http://bit.ly/VRqYri

     

    Excerpts from the article follow:

     

    "a landscape that has been mired by overpromise and underperformance."

     

    "What explains the difficulties of these companies, and what can the industry learn from these tumultuous times in order to avoid a repeat of history?

     

    The Need to Provide Solutions, Not Technologies

     

    One theme that is apparent in looking back at the past several years is that vendors attempted to provide solutions for poorly defined problems in nascent markets with uncertain demand. For example, lithium-ion battery manufacturers received the lion's share of federal funding largely in anticipation of a burgeoning electric vehicle market, which never materialized at the levels originally anticipated.

     

    In addition, the lines between grid-scale applications and transportation applications were blurred, with some assumption that economies of scale could be realized somewhere in the middle.

     

    Ultimately, the combination of these factors resulted in a level of demand well below that which was originally expected, leading to an oversupplied market that was artificially kept afloat by governmental funding.
    While there have been successful demonstrations of new battery chemistries at the grid scale, the scalability of these deployments remains uncertain, especially without continued federal support, and with regulatory structures that have yet to recognize and monetize the full value of services provided.

     

    Given the capital-intensive process of commercialization innate to the storage industry, it will be critical for vendors to develop solutions jointly with end-users in order to address clearly defined problems, rather than by attempting to provide solutions retroactively."
    5 Feb 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: Great find! For anybody ...

     

    In the article I see "In PJM, for example, approximately 1 gigawatt of frequency regulation resources are currently required, and even with a growing percentage of renewables in the generation mix, the long-term growth opportunities for the frequency regulation market are limited".

     

    ???

     

    Assuming continued deterioration of the grid and the $ billions we recently saw is needed to upgrade, I would think FR and other ancillary services would be needed more and more for a *vry* long time.

     

    Given the reduction in capex available by adding storage to the grid, allowing grid upgrade deferral, I can't see how "... long-term growth opportunities for the frequency regulation market are limited".

     

    ISTM this becomes even less likely to be true if such as the PC behind the meter gains widespread acceptance, as the capex then falls to the customer, not the (regulated) utility.

     

    Add in micro-grid adoption ...

     

    Anyone?

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5003) | Send Message
     
    One thing I have worried about the potential of grid battery storage etc....is that utilities have enormous debt, pay most of profits out in dividends, therefore they will have to any major upgrades on borrowed money driving rates much higher.

     

    I think it is a big mkt. for change over time with many "niche" mkts. They are just slower than snails and very cost conscience ( think about bouncing back & forth from coal to Nat. gas.) They are reluctant to do anything that has a high up front cost. In solar they would not build the fields, they buy the power from them.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    HTL, what was said at the conference was that FR is a good starting market for storage, but fairly small compared to the broad market for storage.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Power-One of Camarillo joins Panasonic for energy storage systems

     

    http://bit.ly/WtJUMP
    5 Feb 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    FYI - according to Seattle Times, Boeing is asking FAA for approval to fly an 787 to gather data on the Lithium (system).

     

    http://bit.ly/WtTxuT

     

    From the Times: "Accordimg to an industry source, one theory Boeing is investigating is that moisture getting inside the battery may have contributed to the recent incidents."

     

    IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!... (well, so I have been told).

     

    PLUS, they want to test a potential FIX. Could that be a bank of PbC;s?????? Naw.......and go away NJB.

     

    http://bit.ly/VRDHdu

     

    That's a round trip guys; unless of course hooks and loops are alive.
    5 Feb 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Don't go away NJB, but don't keep arguing for an idea that neither Boeing nor Axion would be interested in. For a company like Axion with a product like the PbC the aviation game is simply not worth the price of admission.
    5 Feb 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    JOhn - I understood and agreed with your earlier Axion "business" decision based on wise use of dollars and resources spent towards the biggest and best fish to fry. Unfortunately, those are not always the resultant market forces "invoked" due to imbalances on both the demand and supply sides that come to light out of nowhere; new bias sometimes causes us to do the "druthers".

     

    Not saying AXPW is ever going to pursue Boeing on it's own, nor that Boeing is going to get over-interested in PbC. But the fat lady has not yet sung.

     

    Am I placing any money on this bet. No, my bets were/are justified on the identified PbC markets I've eluded to previously, sans Boeing.

     

    And doggone it, one just doesn't know if Boeing might eventually want to return to the next best thing to the old certified lead acid around, being PbC, which is much better in many ways.
    6 Feb 2013, 03:23 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    "From the Times: "Accordimg to an industry source, one theory Boeing is investigating is that moisture getting inside the battery may have contributed to the recent incidents."

     

    IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!... (well, so I have been told)."

     

    The cells are sealed, the battery may not be. There is a difference. Moisture in the battery enclosure could corrode connections and cause a high resistance connection and/or a short circuit, which could happen to any multi cell bank. I rather doubt it's moisture in any case. More interesting is the broken wire in the other article you linked.
    http://bit.ly/VRDHdu
    That does not look like the result of shorting or fire, but of fatigue.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    jrp3 -

     

    In my day (40 years ago, ho-hum) of dissecting battery/cell failures, I would have to possibly agree with you about the fatigued (cabled Al (??) wire conductor?) re., the nature of the earlier photo you mentioned.

     

    And this one?:

     

    http://bit.ly/XUk6Hg

     

    "Part of a charred battery that caught fire in a Japan Airlines 787 on the ground in Boston:"

     

    Well, it pretty much looks like a hot spot/shorting thru plate to plate possibly and of course then melting the can (case). Terminals look pretty good, intact and clean.

     

    One thing about wrecks, they are at times a mess to diagnose. Reverse engineering good working models is more sure, but not necessarily more fun.

     

    Both assessments would require more than a long distance rocking-chair looksee.

     

    PS - I would be so pleased if indeed writers would properly distinguish between cells and modules and batteries, etc. - and internal/external enclosures, etc. but sometimes the distinction becomes grey, or colored - especially for the uninitiated or when the distinction is not really that clear or/nor required, and language becomes loose.
    7 Feb 2013, 03:38 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    NJB,
    The pic you linked shows a cell with external charring, little to no swelling, and no obvious case rupture. That does not look like a cell that heated from within, but that was burned from the outside. That does not appear to be an ignition point.
    7 Feb 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    Both assessments would require more than a long distance rocking-chair looksee.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    jrp3 -

     

    On the other hand, if the "damaged" cell photo we have been discussing is Cell #6 as talked about by the NTSD(?), and with a little closer look at the cell case, I indeed believe an area of the case wall is missing (thickness delta some what messy but surface differences like plates v/s metal wall.

     

    Either way, I don't believe either of us would have ever made this statement if we were the manufacturer or the certifyer, or the user, whether in 2013 or 1973:

     

    "Mr. Brodd said Boeing’s tests in 2007 might have miscalculated the likelihood of the problems because “when you’re making stuff for the first time, you don’t know” all the possibilities. Other experts said that after the two incidents with smoke and fire, the F.A.A. and Boeing may be able to refine the tests to focus more closely on the worst possible hazards."

     

    http://nyti.ms/VKxH9V
    7 Feb 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    To all that are interested in the Boeing 787 Litium batteries failures:

     

    So Boeing is going to "redesign, etc." to contain a battery failure fire;

     

    http://bit.ly/XYpRnj

     

    BUT, goodness, what is their redundant "design" for a failed battery to keep an aircraft flying with no power from THAT battery for aircraft controls since the 787 has switched from hydraulics, etc., to electrical means?

     

    And the answer can't be that this was the APU battery, not the controls battery (while both batteries are the same, best I know - duh!!!).

     

    How about a battery that is known to NOT burn?? No recomendations coming from me.....well, NiCd's have been certified; as have some Pb Acids..........but I will stop there

     

    Too bad we can't ask Thomas Edison what to do........
    7 Feb 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2778) | Send Message
     
    PS - here's a brief on Eagle-Pichers Li battery system and video of a failure test.

     

    http://bit.ly/WN5zkh

     

    JIC -

     

    Part of a charred battery that caught fire in a Japan Airlines 787 on the ground in Boston:

     

    http://bit.ly/XUk6Hg
    5 Feb 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    On EV sites and I think here, I've seen references to this headline or one like it.

     

    California Not Backing Down on Electric Vehicle Sales Mandate
    Actually it is not a mandate for EVs but for zero tailpipe emissions.

     

    <Mary Nichols, chairman of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), told reporters on Wednesday that the state had no plans of reducing its zero-emission vehicle requirements, despite lower than anticipated sales.>

     

    So now what?
    Hydrogen is CA's answer.
    Questions for Peter Hoffmann: A Hydrogen Advocate Whose Time May Have Come
    http://nyti.ms/VRNgJg;

     

    <The California Air Resources Board just approved new regulations designed to put 500,000 zero-emission cars on the road by 2025. More than 160,000 of those vehicles would be hydrogen fuel-cell cars in one scenario. The regulations also require oil companies to build hydrogen refueling stations. >

     

    < The Clean Fuels Outlet provision of CARB’s rules will require oil companies to install hydrogen pumps at gas stations. >

     

    There were 65 or so H fueling stations in the US about a year ago. This past summer CA refused the grants to the stations there who had reportedly abusing the system. 23 at the time.
    I don't know if they closed or not.

     

    All of which explains the number of hydrogen fuel cell agreements between automakers and articles on H cars hitting the mainstream media.
    http://usat.ly/11HXKjA

     

    <As a result, automakers have made a series of fresh announcements regarding fuel-cell plans. Among them:

     

    Nissan. The TeRRA, a hydrogen fuel-cell powered SUV, was introduced last week at the Paris Motor Show. While it's just a concept, Nissan executive Andy Palmer noted that fuel-cell costs are now a sixth of the predecessor concept and that automakers now can mass-produce them "whenever hydrogen becomes widely available" for consumers. It's not, at least in the U.S.
    Honda. CEO Takanobu Ito just announced that Honda will launch a new fuel-cell electric car in the U.S. and Europe starting in 2015. It will "showcase further technological advancement and significant cost reduction." Honda has already been letting consumers test its fleet of FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel-cell cars for a couple of years.
    Toyota. Japan's largest automaker also plans a fuel-cell sedan in 2015. Vice Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada touted the potential of hydrogen recently and dismissed plug-in electric vehicles as not being able to meet "society's needs" for range, cost or recharge time.
    Mercedes-Benz. The German luxury brand is fielding a fleet of "F-Cell" vehicles in the U.S. Forty are being driven by customers now, with another 20 on the way. They lease for $599 a month for three years — including fuel.
    Hyundai, Kia. South Korean corporate cousins Hyundai and Kia will have a hydrogen-powered car in 2015, says John Krafcik, CEO of Hyundai Motor America. Don't get too fired up, he says. He believes hydrogen shows little promise of replacing gasoline anytime soon.

     

    Interestingly, General Motors, a leader in hydrogen fuel-cell research and in publicizing its test fleet a few years ago, has yet to commit to a new vehicle. GM still has most of the 119 converted Chevrolet Equinox crossovers on the road from its previous hydrogen fuel-cell effort.

     

    Trying to make hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles affordable remains "a very challenging business case going forward," says Charlie Freese, director of GM's global fuel-cell efforts. >

     

    We have the next govt. mandated money pit.
    5 Feb 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Jefferson wept.
    5 Feb 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    froggey, a mandate for H fuel cells may actually be good news for PbC. Fuel cells are not particularly good for highly variable demand, such as automotive. Putting some storage, specifically PbC, may greatly improve acceleration and improve fuel consumption.

     

    The economy does not need fuel cells for transportation for myriad uses. However, FC should work better with some storage.
    6 Feb 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Rick
    I thought a setup like ePower's would work. I'm glad to have it confirmed. Scaling down to a car sized was more than I was sure of.

     

    I don't know enough about fuel cells to know about SS. I assume PbC would still be useful but can you confirm that?

     

    They mentioned that: Out of 500,000 planed zero-emission cars on the road by 2025 The high scenario had 160,000 H fuel cells. I wonder what other money pits they have planed for the other 340,000 or more ?
    6 Feb 2013, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2379) | Send Message
     
    I am not an expert of fuel cells, but I do not think FCs start/stop instantly. My (limited) understanding is that FCs do not start or change output power particularly fast, so the advantage of a battery is more similar to a serial hybrid rather than start/stop.

     

    Given FCs' nearly insurmountable energy density problem of energy storage via compressed hydrogen, adding some battery storage (also with energy density and specific energy challenges) is not a major change or improvement.

     

    In short, FCs, with or without PbCs, are unlikely to be an actual energy solution, but may be an effective co-black hole of wasted taxpayer money.
    6 Feb 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    I have to totally agree with you. Fuel Cells are expensive and have horrible problems associated with the attendant storage of the hydrogen. There is nothing cheap or affordable about them. Yet, auto companies make believe that all will be fine in a few years when technology and cost all fall into place.

     

    Not realistic soon.
    6 Feb 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    02/05/2013: EOD stuff partially from instablog (up tomorrow A.M.).
    # Trds: 20, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 23100, Vol 75565, AvTrSz: 3778
    Min. Pr: 0.3204, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3266 (same as yesterday)
    # Buys, Shares: 12 35665, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3238
    # Sells, Shares: 8 39900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3291
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.12 (47.2% “buys”), DlyShts 11465 (15.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.73%

     

    Today we had, for the 19th time, the VWAP sell price above the VWAP buy price - $0.3291 vs. $0.3238. The history of what follows such occurrences (IP = already in progress):
    - price rise follows 3/22/12, 4/2/12, 10/4-10/5/12 (IP), 11/12/12, 11/19 (IP?), 1/7 & 1/9/13 (IP)
    - price flat follows 6/20/12
    - price drop follows 4/13/12, 4/23/12, 7/11/12, 7/24/12, 10/18/12, 10/26/12 (IP), 12/11-12/12/12 (IP), 1/14/13

     

    So we have seven occurrences where a price rise either continued or began shortly after the occurrences and eight times a drop either continued or started shortly after the occurrences. The only conclusion from that is we likely won't go flat.

     

    However, 3 of the rises came in the latter part of 2012 when we had entered the low $0.3x range and two more in 2013 when we were well ensconced in my beloved “grind up”. We can't easily compare that to the drops because only one is in 2013 and we are in an up trend, overall. But we can note that six of the drops occurred prior to beginning the “grind up”.

     

    Combining all that, AND NOTHING ELSE, I would say we're more likely o go up. But that's not the way my mind works.

     

    First, on the traditional TA front we see a continued “consolidation” apparently in progress with continued weakening volume and still-tight spreads occurring all at or below $0.33 and a couple lows in the $0.3156 in the last week. We are “stuck” around the 200-day SMA, yesterday $0.3227, as it continues to slowly drop. I think we were fortunate to have a close above that today. The oscillators continue mixed with only the stochastic in bullish territory. Momentum is almost exactly neutral, 1.004, and the ADX related stuff is weakening. MFI and accumulation are moving upward but not in bullish territory.

     

    The new very short-term falling resistance I had recently added is out of play as we've moved sideways long enough that it was left behind. It'll take a couple days to see if any other very short-term resistance can be identified.

     

    If I stopped there, I would suggest price weakening further based on what the ADX and related are doing: the ADX, DI- and DI+ are all weakening. But this can be just the effect of flat price.

     

    On my experimental stuff, average trade size is below what I think is retail, buy:sell is right in the average range, daily shorts continue low but climbing, as has been the recent behavior, and VWAP remains slightly above the falling 200-day SMA of $0.3217. My original inflection point calculations have broken the pattern of “forming up” to signal a rise. From here they may start forming up to signal a fall or drop or continue as “broken”, suggesting it's not forming up for anything. My newer versions are in the same state.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    "On my experimental stuff, average trade size is below what I think is retail..."

     

    HTL, So are you suggesting here that we have MM's throwing around lures to try to get some volume going or for some other reason?
    5 Feb 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3446) | Send Message
     
    Tuesday seems to be the day of greatest expectation for news breakage. When it doesn't happen.....flatness.
    5 Feb 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    With today's minimal trading activity, the 10-day average volume dropped down through the base trend line I added to this week's volume graph. FINRA shorts as a percentage of total volume have been in single digit two sigma territory since mid-January. While we seem to have a lot of buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for business or financing news, the sell-side pressure is minimal.

     

    It's too early to say for sure, but I believe everybody who wanted to sell already has and when something happens to goose volume things are likely to get fascinating.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Nope. I think that the volume is s low that what JP suggested in the past is happening - MMs having to work harder. My guess is this means normal trades are taking multiple small partial fills to complete - and many may not complete. I saw several today that took multiple trade to complete what I was sure was a single order because of proximity and aggregate volume at the same price.

     

    This does suggest that there's not a high volume of orders coming together on the buy and sell side to make the market - MMs are having to make partials, wait and wait and then something shows up. And with this low volume they are, I *guess*, reluctant to push the market around to generate volume - they don't want to get stuck with shares either short or long that they can't easily offset with a countering trade.

     

    When there's good liquidity they needn't worry much about this.

     

    Guesswork,
    HardToLove
    5 Feb 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    HTL & John, Thanks! Makes sense.
    5 Feb 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    My guess --- and of course all you can do is guess --- is that AXPW is in hands now that are thinking in dollars not pennies.

     

    So news is going to have an outsized effect on pps because "we" are holding the shares and none of us are thinking about selling.

     

    I also think the raise will have a similar effect when it finally goes off because lurkers on the sidelines will see their bottom and pay whatever it costs to get their hands on some shares.
    5 Feb 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! "From here they may start forming up to signal a fall or drop or continue as “broken”, suggesting it's not forming up for anything".

     

    s/b

     

    "From here they may start forming up to signal a rise or drop or continue as “broken”, suggesting it's not forming up for anything for a while".

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Whew, Purgatory is better. ;)
    6 Feb 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    This was a very good month for auto sales both YOY and monthly. Not so for the EV market. It seems aside from shallow pools getting filled, there were several stumbles and other things that made for a bad month.

     

    http://bit.ly/VCwvQo
    Chevrolet Volt: January 2013 was GM’s worst result in a year, as the company only sold 1,140 down from Dec 2,633. Imagine selling half of what you planned and running short in your two biggest markets. Ca. and Michigan. The line ‘chestnuts roasting on an open fire’ along with thoughts of ‘bio-carbon’ have been running around in my head all day.

     

    Nissan LEAF: 650 LEAFs, which was down 3.8 percent compared to January 2012. However the company only had about 900 2012s LEAFs in inventory on Jan 1. 900 – 650 = 250. Nissan has been running down inventory of the Leaf for a few months. (At least in the US) The new ones, built in the US, with the exchange rate, will be cheaper for Nissan. The 2013s will be in short supply in Feb and possibly March. Probably the Leaf will have a good sales month or 3 after that.

     

    Tesla deliveries estimates are 1,000 and 1,200. (Hybrid cars dashboard and Inside EVs respectively.) To make 2012 year end look good Tesla pulled some January deliveries into Dec. Which is believed to have lowered their Jan. deliveries. Tesla is now reported to be delivering the 60kWh version. I’ve not heard of any crash testing of the 60kWh version. Which MRTTF said was important. I had heard they would do so. Perhaps I missed it?
    Some years ago Tesla stated the 60kWh version of the battery would weigh the same as the 85kWh battery for battery swapping option. The rumor is out that they are not the same, but the actual weight was still a secret last I heard.

     

    Fisker sold about 20 Karmas this month. They are now being run by a turnaround company. Which is looking to raise money-sell-reorganise it. Rumor has it; the investors are willing to put in more money. Among others, China’s Wanxiang which just bought A123 who made Fisker's batteries is considering it. There is a rumor that someone looking at Fisker might continue sales of the car as well.

     

    Mitsubishi i-MiEV: 257 were sold (better than the last 6 months combined) thanks to the heavy discounting. ($69 a month lease) Mitsubishi’s best result last year was only 85 (May of 2012) Up from Dec. 77 and Jan 2012 at 36

     

    Toyota Prius Plug-In: Toyota sold a less than expected 874 Prius plug-ins in January. Down from 1,361 in Dec, Jan 2012 NA. Toyota is the only PHEV manufacturer with an ongoing business Made no apparent mistakes and it didn’t sell well either.

     

    Toyota RAV4 EV: 25 all-electric SUVs were sold. Despite a recent $7,500 cut in price. Down from Dec. 42.

     

    Honda Fit EV: 8 Fit EVs were sold. VS 19 in Dec. It’s worst full month of sales ever. Note: they are competing against:
    The Leaf reduced to $199 a month $1,999 down. (3 years)
    The i-Mev reduced to $69 with $2,100 down. (2 years)
    A Ford Focus EV, reduced $249, with $2,138 due at signing. (3 years)
    The Fit has an absolutely ridiculous lease price of $389.
    Honda seems to have the nerve to believe sales/leases of EVs should actually make a profit.
    Honda Accord Plug-In: Officially went on sale January 15th, there may not have been actual cars on the lots as only 2 were sold. (They apparently expect profit on it as well.)

     

    Smart EV sold 1. 0 in Dec and 0 last Jan. It actually sold better in 2011 than 2012. (139 VS 388)

     

    Focus EV Ford recently cut $10,000 from the lease price of the Focus (Now $249 a month)
    Sold 81 in Jan VS 167 in Dec and 172 in Nov.
    Ford C-Max Energi (PHEV) production is reportedly behind sales.
    338 in Jan VS 971 in Dec

     

    Prius Plug in sales, are falling. There were no apparent missteps to blame it on.
    874 in Jan
    1,361 in Dec
    1,766 in Nov
    1,889 in Oct

     

    Coda Has been written off as a likely noncollectable debt by UQM. Sales were never reported but without suppliers; it's going to zero.

     

    4,176 EVs sold in Jan.
    7,669 Sold in Dec.

     

    The article “Electric Car Sales to Double in 2013” By Anton Wahlman
    His “TOTAL estimate for 2013: 125,000”
    Got me to thinking
    125,000 is a good deal above double the 53,172 sold in 2012. Even so if you double it again 250,00 for the year 2014 then double it again 500,000 in 2015. Now add them all together…
    500,000 + 250,000 + 125,000+ 53,172= 928,172 + 345 from 2010 =928,517
    We still wouldn’t reach the million electric cars that were supposed to be on the road before 2015. How likely is 2016?

     

    How many do I think will be sold in the coming years?
    As many as the Govt requires.

     

    With the exception of Tesla and other cars made for those who can afford to waste that kind of money. Nearly none are and will be sold. By the end of this year all pure EVs will be compliance cars. Probably all PHEVs as well. Volt has had major incentives and has been discounted for months. Toyota PHEV sales appear to be slowing. I rather doubt anyone can make them at a profit and a price an average buyer can afford; for what it is.

     

    A factoid I ran across. Except for the Prius, Buyers of hybrids don’t buy a hybrid the second time around.
    No explanation was offered.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Someone at inside EVs has made his guess for 2013 sales

     

    Major EVs:

     

    Chevrolet Volt – 30,000 (+27.9%)
    Nissan LEAF – 15,000 (+52.8%)
    Plug-In Prius - 8,000 (-21.6%)
    Tesla Model S – 15,000 (+500%)
    Ford Focus Electic – 2,000 (+192%)
    Ford C-Max Energi – 12,000 (+405%)
    Ford Fusion Energi – 1,000
    Mitsubishi i-MiEV – 400 (-32.0%)

     

    Mystery/unkown EVs:

     

    Honda Accord PHEV – 500
    Honda Fit EV – 200
    Toyota RAV4 EV – 750
    Fiat 500e – 250
    Chevrolet Spark EV – 2,000

     

    87,100 Total Sales
    5 Feb 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    The 60kWh S weight is known, I can't remember exactly off the top of my head but it's a little under 200lbs less than the 85kWh version, I think 180lbs less or so.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Froggy,
    Fascinating. Lets remember that the "cars sold" number is what the manufacturers are reporting that dealers purchased from the manufacturer. The reason I bring this up is this:
    My source inside the dealer network here in Florida informed me that his reports ( from dealers) were that about 30% less retail sales ( including leases) seemed to occur this January. I'm not sure how to square the numbers. I'm sure there is a way. But it seems to me that your figures and his figures are about the same whether it is an EV or not. But those Ev figures are bad.
    If anyone knows how to double check on retail car sales at point of purchase I would appreciate the information.
    5 Feb 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    We can just dump it into the grid. :))

     

    "The established solar architecture based on 12V photovoltaic panels, batteries, charge controllers, and inverters will continue to give way to grid-tied inverter architectures. This approach to harvesting solar energy brings with it a lot of key benefits.

     

    Grid-tied systems can lower electric bills by delivering power on demand when solar power is available. Using a shifting phase angle, solar energy can be injected back into AC power lines, letting your power meter run in reverse.

     

    The key factors driving the increasing market share of grid-tied versus 12V DC systems is lower installation and maintenance costs. Large and expensive lead acid battery banks are eliminated."

     

    Will 12V solar disappear in 2013?

     

    http://bit.ly/WNzWag
    5 Feb 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    ii, I thought the grid-tied approach sans batteries was more common than anything else. Guess the use of lead-acid batteries with solar has been more common? Probably batteries from Exide.
    http://bit.ly/Xo09s9
    6 Feb 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, This might be the case but perhaps the ability to convert excess energy from the solar array and dump it back into the grid is less common in older systems or less costly systems.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Electric Vehicles Land, Water and Air in 2013 PART ONE

     

    "CAMBRIDGE, UK - The hybrid and pure electric vehicle business will continue to prosper in 2013, with profits and growth the norm in most sectors. Laws will proliferate that make electric vehicles the only way to go. For example, more of the world’s lakes will ban diesel engines. Harbours, city centres etc. will get tougher."

     

    http://bit.ly/THPSLj
    5 Feb 2013, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    II
    Interesting article
    1/3 Fanboy 1/3 hardnosed realist and 1/3 advertising

     

    Following a huge growth in the market for toy electric helicopters, manned ones will become commercial within a few years and near silence will be a selling point.

     

    I mean....Wow! toys? a few years?

     

    Well I don't know of any Pure electric Buses that have a superior cost of ownership. but I sure like the ending of the paragraph.

     

    <We are rapidly approaching the point where pure electric and hybrid electric buses have more superior cost of ownership, improving on the typically eight year payback in 2012. In future, more component and system suppliers will get behind the promising new and imaginative vehicle programs rather than queuing up like idiots to get designed into pure electric cars that will not sell. If we include the large number in China, there are now over 100 manufacturers of pure electric cars looking glumly at a near- empty orderbook.>

     

    A complete error
    Boeing is making hundreds of airliners into electric vehicles when on the ground because this saves the airlines millions of dollars a year and they will be deployed in 2013. Kilowatts of electric power into the nosewheel replaces megawatts of inefficient, noisy and polluting jet engine power when taxiing.

     

    This is the WheelTug that has been Mentioned here (by myself a couple of times) mostly by NJB. It is not powered by batteries but by the plane's APU (Auxiliary Power Unit)
    It is not connected to Boeing as stated but rather an aftermarket add on and likely won't be out this year. Hopefully next. You wouldn't believe how long technology can be pushed back by OEMs. ;)

     

    <Bombardier, Polaris Industries, the Chinese and Indian e-bike industry and others will increasingly replace lead acid batteries in their leisure, and other small electric vehicles to make them more hassle free and reduce cost of ownership.>

     

    With what are they going to replace LA that is cheaper and more hassle free?
    I guess they are talking about the Supercapacitor/Ultraca... with the power density of LA that may arrive in 12 years or so.

     

    " Laws will proliferate that make electric vehicles the only way to go. For example, more of the world’s lakes will ban diesel engines. Harbours, city centres etc. will get tougher."

     

    While I absolutely agree on electric motors will reduce the damage done in waterways. I'm not sure how much can be reasonably done with batteries. Are we just moving the pollution elsewhere? Or is there a real reduction in pollution?

     

    Seriously we need a better energy source(s)
    6 Feb 2013, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, Yeah there was a little "hopium" in that piece for sure. But there were some mixed in realities like opportunities in lithium ion for E-bikes in richer markets and E-helicopters for the ubber rich.

     

    Re: Better energy sources. Since we can't economically justify long term solutions due to factors like unstable government policies and market forces nukes are stating to come into question in the US in some cases due to "x time frame" natural gas prices. If not nukes for base load then what? Batteries? Har har.
    6 Feb 2013, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco
    "Re: Better energy sources."...." If not nukes for base load then what?"

     

    Frankly I'd take pixie dust if it was clean and worked.
    "Cold Fusion" is what ever it is AFAICT nobody knows but it is something.
    Thorium if it can be done.
    Fusion Ditto.
    Whatever.
    It has to be cheaper than coal because cleaning up here and sending business to where it is cheaper makes more pollution not less.
    Airborne Mercury Lead Arsenic etc. are a lot more immediate than a hundred year warning of a degree in temperature. Renewables are not up to the job as yet if ever.
    Bill Gates said in one of the links recently posted. Approximately, 'It will take more than a lifetime to build an experimental nuke plant here.' (Including getting the permits etc.)

     

    As you said "unstable government policies and market forces nukes are stating to come into question in the US "

     

    No answers, just awareness of the need.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, I understand all you're saying. But alas, Your alternatives are as thus far a myth. As such your recognition that "No answers, just awareness of the need. ". We're on the same page.

     

    But reality is, Just being needy does not and should not align our chosen alternatives with faith only. To move forward we should always have a plan to build a bridge forward and not burn down any until we are assured we can get a reasonable level of what we are reaching for.

     

    No leaps (or is it Leafs?) of faith required. We're building a business plan.
    6 Feb 2013, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    A reader just sent me a link to a story in Technology Review that talks about GE's efforts to improve wind farm efficiency with bigger turbines. The most interesting part of the article was the last paragraph which says:

     

    "GE’s new wind turbine comes with battery backup. New algorithms, paired with weather-prediction software, determine when to store power in the battery and when to send it to the grid. As a result, wind farm operators can guarantee power output—but for just 15 minutes at a time. If wind power is ever to provide a large share of the total electricity supply, it may be necessary to have hours of storage—or else grid operators will have to maintain backup sources of power, such as natural-gas power plants."

     

    http://bit.ly/14DU1Ck

     

    Ultimately it takes us back to the cost effectiveness issue. Advocates calculate the cost of power from wind turbines and say "Isn't this wondrous?" The calculations always exclude the cost of building, maintaining and operating the back-up assets required for times when the wind isn't blowing. New natural gas plants may be able to generate power at $0.065 per kWh if they're running 24/7, but the all in costs are significantly higher if they're running intermittently.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17883) | Send Message
     
    John: with the advocates being so big on "externalities" for O & G, it seems only fair to include those for their solutions as well, as you began to touch upon in your "pollution of the commons" article.

     

    I'd like to see their reactions when those were presented to them.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. The news on GE offering turbines with short-term storage is very interesting. I would think not necessarily good news for Axion but good for the grid.

     

    My understanding is that wind farm operators do not want to pay the cost to add storage. Instead the external costs for the lack of storage (as you point out) are paid by the consumer.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2643) | Send Message
     
    Interesting energy storage presentation from Cornell edu - still doesn't include lead carbon, but includes some various other data including PJM stuff.

     

    http://bit.ly/XVHfc8
    6 Feb 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
     
    Nice!
    (Page 19) Long-­‐Lasting Batteries: = a much lower total cost of ownership and a huge and growing opportunity
    Most important improvement needed is a 3x improvement in cycle-life over that of traditional lead-acid batteries.

     

    (Page 38) The biggest problem in lead-acid cells is sulfation.
    6 Feb 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    (Page 18) "VRLA batteries can be standby source of power, running in parallel with a generator set, to save on fuel costs. In such configurations, the generator set operates only to charge the batteries when it senses that the DC bus voltage is low after a long outage."

     

    "However, there are concerns over the reliability and actual reserve
    time available in using VRLA batteries when the float voltage is
    applied continuously — especially in prime power applications —
    because of the high number of cycles when the batteries
    discharge."

     

    "High number of cycles" - PbC sweet spot!

     

    D
    6 Feb 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Another annoying misconception, under 'Limitations' of Lead Acid batteries on p. 38: "Not environmentally friendly".

     

    The lead in a lead acid battery is not just recyclable it is all recycled at a cost that is lower than the value of the lead produced.

     

    How is it 'not environmentally friendly' if it has an innate natural incentive to all owners to recycle it?

     

    !

     

    D
    6 Feb 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    Some urban legends die harder than others.
    6 Feb 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    Question is, How is it that Axion's PbC is not even on the horizon of a energy storage study presented in August 2012 at a major university?
    6 Feb 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    I like the last line on the last page

     

    "Technology Wild Cards?"

     

    Anyone know of any not mentioned?
    6 Feb 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Slide 44 is a decent attempt at comparing battery chemistries but it lumps all lead acid with carbon materials together (Carbon Matt).

     

    I feel like the Ultrabattery is kinda like the PbC's evil twin - noone knows that there is a difference between the 2 and they are damning the PbC for the Ultrabattery's sins.

     

    D
    6 Feb 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Someone with an appropriate level of gravitas -- ahem, JP -- should contact Capricorn and enlighten them as to the existence and advantages of PbC.

     

    Our pps problem is how far under the radar we are flying. Not to mention that for certain applications PbC is the right solution, which is good for more than just us greedy shareholders.
    6 Feb 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    More on PSerc, the group that produced that slide show:

     

    http://bit.ly/14EvJrR
    6 Feb 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    D. Mc,
    The problem is a large number of batteries are sent out of this country to places where recycling is sloppy and environmental damage is high so lead ends up entering the environment. There is a movement by some to outlaw exporting used lead acid batteries.

     

    http://bit.ly/VJKTvJ
    http://bit.ly/Xqqzd5

     

    The fantasy that lead is clean and wonderful and always fully recovered does not hold up.
    7 Feb 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    RSR is simply trying to increase it's supplies of spent cores by eliminating foreign competition. If you can cut out the foreign competition by waving your arms and complaining about health and safety practices in other countries that have their own governments, your profit margins improve significantly.

     

    The idea that the US can or should be the environmental nanny to the world is almost as ludicrous as the idea that it should be the policeman for the world.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Jrp3
    "The existing policy allows U.S.-generated toxic waste to be exported to nations "ill equipped to manage the tragic consequences of mismanaged wastes," Robert Finn, president and chief executive officer of the Dallas-based smelter, said in a letter submitted last month to the Environmental Protection Agency."

     

    You are implying we are exporting toxic waste to get rid of it. If you understand it what is going on is they are buying it.
    They use it in their own industry(s).

     

    This is not exporting waste this is raw materials being bought.
    Would it be any less dangerous if they bought raw material from a mine?

     

    This argument is pure sophistry.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    Since the raw material would not need to be extracted from an existing battery, often it seems in unsafe conditions, then yes it might be less dangerous. However the point remains that lead battery recycling is not as clean as some like to pretend. To argue otherwise is pure sophistry.
    8 Feb 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2769) | Send Message
     
    Jrp3
    So mining ore and all that entails such as pollution from the dust ets. Then and concentrating the materials and all the chemicals needed for that and all the inherent dangers of making them transporting them to the site and using them; Is safer than taking the materials out of the case?

     

    I'll bet you had a lot of fun in the sixties, but I doubt you car remember it.
    8 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8008) | Send Message
     
    From the structure of that post I think you're suffering reduced brain function far more than I. I did have fun in the 60's, doing things like learning to walk, playing with toys, and going to kindergarten.
    I guess you think that batteries transport themselves to facilities and regurgitate their lead right into new battery cases, with no emissions of any kind. If you have some more of that blotter please pass it along.

     

    "Unregulated recycling industries and informal methods of extracting lead – often conducted in homes or backyards – can lead to high levels of environmental lead contamination. These processes usually involve breaking the ULABs open by hand or with an axe, which can lead to direct dermal contact with lead and the improper release of battery acid into the surrounding soil. Pieces of the broken batteries are then left on the ground where they are exposed to the elements and can possibly spread toxins to people through dermal contact. Once the batteries are broken open, parts of the battery must be melted in order to recover the secondary lead. This process is frequently performed in homes and over informal kitchen stove flames. Lead-oxide, which accounts for 40 percent of the lead weight in each battery and is a particularly bio-available form of lead, is often improperly disposed of and left out in the open."
    http://bit.ly/XZOKkh
    9 Feb 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    There are some terrible environmental practices in parts of the world where crushing poverty causes people to do things that we know to be quite unhealthy.

     

    The one certainty that flaming demagogues invariably overlook is that poor individuals who recycle batteries in their back yards and kitchens don't buy their batteries in container loads from advanced economies and then ship them 6,000 to 10,000 miles for grossly inefficient backyard processing.

     

    For heavens sake man – please use your head for something other than a hatrack.
    9 Feb 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I don't think doctors are recommending home re-cycling for either LA or Li-on. I remember having several broken batteries around the farm in the 60's- probably even handled the cases, and couple that with desert nuclear testing where winds blew the fallout into western Kansas, and the crop spraying and maybe I don't want to see a toxicology report on myself.
    9 Feb 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9470) | Send Message
     
    Metro, Seen it all as well. First jobs for GM were in magnet processing operations and a mechanical linkage operation. Up until the early 90's they still used lead in their grease (They recommended women of child bearing age get other jobs in the plant away from the lead grease - Many didn't comply and the union said they didn't have to). By the mid 2000's pretty much all the lead was removed from auto's unless it was returned as a result of recycled steel. Even in electronics as well. We're making progress.

     

    Excluding the battery of course. Just NOTHING near competitive (price/performance) yet when it comes to its functionality over the temperature ranges that it has to work under. It's darn good technology when used where it makes sense.
    9 Feb 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30177) | Send Message
     
    It's almost scary when you understand how good lead-acid technology is, and then come to the realization that the PbC makes it a full order of magnitude better in terms of both charge acceptance and cycle life without sacrificing anything but a little specific energy.
    9 Feb 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3446) | Send Message
     
    Whenever we talk about the hazards of lead, and hearken back to days of yore, I can't help but think about all the other elemental lead out there... the billions of myriad fishing weights that found their way into rivers, lakes, streams, and ocean, spent bullets and shotgun shot scattered literally over thousands of miles of countryside... I even remember melting my own lead as a teenager on a woodstove to pour into an irregular-shaped cavity for nose weight on my model airplane...(sweet little Royal models Spitfire with an O.S. Max .10 and 4ch radio but sadly fixed gear) Anyway, I wonder about all that and gotta think we still have a lot of cleaning up to do... I know steel shot and fishing weights ain't nearly as good as the plumbum kind, but even a crazy 'winger like me can admit that continuing to spew it out into the ecosystem willy nilly like we've been doing for a coupla centuries now, can't be a good thing...
    9 Feb 2013, 04:34 PM Reply