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  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    BINGO!

     

    Did I win the belly dancers Grand Prize?
    6 Feb 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    #2 for the very first time
    6 Feb 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Better Place, the rent a battery electric car company is gone from the U.S.A.
    http://bit.ly/XkzDSk

     

    Just one other example that America is not charged up about electric cars
    6 Feb 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8072) | Send Message
     
    No, it's an example of the failure of the battery swapping/rental model and BP, which I've been predicting for years.
    http://bit.ly/VqNxze
    7 Feb 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Low sales volume of EVs, Lihium batter companies losing their shits, and EV rentals going out of business don't qualify as "not charged up".

     

    What does it take for you to understand that EV adoption is painstakingly slow and not likely ever to be an acceptable product sold in the millions.
    7 Feb 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8072) | Send Message
     
    When the numbers of EV's sold stops growing. That is not happening. These are early days, many companies will go under, just as in the early days of the computing industry and the internet. Neither of those industries were failures, though at the time many may had predicted such, just as they predicted the failure of the automobile in the early 20th century.
    8 Feb 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    EV's have a tiny niche now and clearly the trend is in their direction.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    The fundamental economics of EVs are fatally flawed. There may be a niche market among the emotionally committed and mathematically challenged, but barring a fundamental change in the planet's natural resource balance EVs can never be more than a niche product for the terminally quirky.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8072) | Send Message
     
    Said the buggy whip manufacturer...
    I noticed in your concern for natural resources you aren't buying a Prius, which you claim is the most efficient use of resources, but instead have your eyes set on some "over indulgent eco bling for the rich", as you might put it.
    9 Feb 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    If I buy a toy I'll do so with my own money and apologize to none. I also won't pretend that I'm doing something that benefits the planet, national security or for that matter anybody other than me.

     

    I don't mind conspicuous consumption. It's the sanctimonious pretense that EVs are somehow good for society or benefit anybody other than an owner who has shifted his transportation costs to somebody else that torques my shorts.

     

    I'm a firm believer in my right to waste my own money. I don't, however, believe you or anybody else has the right to waste my money.
    9 Feb 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, personal attacks are so uncouth...eye roll...as opposed to your having your heart set on "over indulgent eco bling for environmentalists", I suppose? I'd hazard to guess that many of us have met an obnoxious Prius-owner toting about a bully-pulpit ready to lambast everyone else for getting half his gas mileage.

     

    Generously disallowing the environmental impact of the mining and recycling costs of your preferred batteries and their associated charging gear, get this straight: Until your EV batteries are being charged by your exercise bike, windmill, solar panels and/or algae, you're just displacing your gaseous emissions between here and there.
    Plenty of studies have determined that the overall environmental impact of EVs is far less rosy than what is so often claimed. So get off your high horse, son, replied the buggy whip manufacturer.
    9 Feb 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8072) | Send Message
     
    I'm simply returning in kind what Mr. Petersen has given quite freely in the past. The judgments are not mine but his reflected back at him. In many of his articles he has clearly stated that any vehicle other than a Prius class is an obscene waste of resources, his words, not mine. His outrage does not extend to his own driveway apparently.
    As for wasting money, I don't remember the concern when Hummers were being subsidized by taxpayer funds.
    http://bit.ly/YOMwW4
    10 Feb 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    JRP3,
    We have all listened to your lithium dedication and I believe have been thoughtfully nice in letting you vent what you believe are the facts about that substance.
    But when you start to degrade posters by intentionally misquoting what they say, then you are in fact, proving yourself to be, far less than you believe yourself to be.
    10 Feb 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Interesting: First time in a long time. ~15:00 spread went to $0.32512/$0.339 and sat there. As soon as ATDF caved on the bid to $0.33, got a trade. And then another. The deal is that apparently TEJS and ATDF sellers offers @ $0.3225 and $0.3250 got taken out, exposing the higher ones.

     

    Are the sellers at last getting exhausted? Is the $0.0079 spread in trading range an omen of things to come?

     

    I don't know. Might be an aberration in the space-time continuum and someone thinks it's January 2012. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    HTL.
    Volume is very low (79,000). Any significance to you?
    6 Feb 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I sense cracking mud at the bottom of the willing sellers barrel.

     

    Yesterday the 10-day average volume penetrated down through the base line trend that I included in this week's graph. It will fall even further today and take us down into a doldrums trading range we haven't seen since early July. When I combine the low volumes with FINRA short volumes that have been two standard deviations below the long term averages for the last three weeks, I think we've finally reached the bottom of the barrel.
    6 Feb 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    There were only 13 (5 minute spans) timeframes where shares actually traded so far today. 65 minutes of trading.
    Reminds me of 2009 when a 5000 share trade was big time trade for axpw.

     

    But Catfish can wallow in mud a long time.
    6 Feb 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Actually I'm surprised it took this long for the bid/ask spreads to gain a little space between them. The low volume is normal in a sideways consolidation and the spreads narrowing is also. As I mentioned a few days ago, we need to see some range in trading before I think we see a move start to develop.

     

    As John said, could be the mud finally staring to crack.

     

    Volumes since 1/29, rounded thousands: 145, 159, 63, 248, 212, 76, 79. So we've had enough volume, finally, that one side or the other should be getting worn out at this price level.

     

    Two in a row below 100K - likely something moves soon.

     

    All guesswork, of course,
    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Well HTL,
    Your guesses are getting to be pretty spot on.
    Any lotto numbers you like?
    6 Feb 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (278) | Send Message
     
    I think this is it.

     

    We have had an upside down Shoulder-Head-Shoulder formation. Neckline around 0.32-0.33. Got confirmed early January when pp broke through in an upwards move. Got reconfirmed by the fall back to the neckline these last few days. But this time confirming it is now a bottom resistance. Strong buy signal in my experience.

     

    One may argue that it is not a SHS (neckline should be horizontal), but that the neckline is actually a down ward trend-line. In this case however the trend has been broken and we have just had a fall back to the trend-line. But from the upper side i.e. also reconfirming the trend is broken. A strong buy signal.

     

    Lastly the golden cross (50 and 200 days) is almost there, and is usually a lagging buy indicator. i.e. buy before it is realized.

     

    Further we broke the 200 day moving average, and fell back to touch it (= confirm it). i.e. a buy signal.

     

    I succeeded to pickup another 100K at 0.31 last week as I saw this pattern.

     

    So dear bottom feeders, you may have to risk an eye and a fin in order to join the party :-)
    6 Feb 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Poul,
    Very interesting chart. If I look at a 2 year daily chart I see a double bottom on November 13,2012. A rising short term trend line after that.

     

    On a shorter chart I see a rising pennant has formed. This was formed on low volume. I would guess a breakout on higher volume.

     

    If I strain my imagination I see the head and shoulders, but I more see a convergence at this point of many signals. Hang on. I am hoping your crystal ball is correct.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Poul: "... neckline should be horizontal".

     

    Bulkowski says that some slope is normal. That has been my experience as well on other stocks. My *guess* is that a prefectly horizontal shoulder would be relatively much less common.

     

    Something that's interesting me, and possibly fitting with your call, is my discussion yesterday of the VWAP sell price being higher than the VWAP buy for the 19th time. Although we couldn't determine a likely direction from it - all we could reasonably bet was we are not likely to go "flat" much longer - when I combined the timing of these occurrences, relating to what was going on at the time, I said "Combining all that, AND NOTHING ELSE, I would say we're more likely to go up. But that's not the way my mind works ...".

     

    It would be interesting if we did see a major move start in the next day or two. And if it were up, that would be outstanding for a couple of different reasons.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    Awesome Poul, great to see yet another 100k shares in Axionista hands.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: "A rising short term trend line after that."

     

    My long-term rising trading channel began 11/13 with the support originating at the low of that date. It's still intact with touches at the lows of 11/21,1/2/13 (almost - really close) and 1/25/13. Origin plus 3 touches is relatively strong, confidence-wise. The resistance is not as strong, having been penetrated several times, but pps came back under it each time. Origin plus 4 touches, *including* the penetrations, gives good confidence again.

     

    I can see Poul's inverse H & S. I wouldn't have spotted it myself because of my focus on the risng trading channel - I essentially never looked to see what else might be forming up (memo to self - STAY ALERT DUMMY!).

     

    It does have one weakness, per Bulkowski - it's not very "symmetrical". He says that the width of the shoulders and the "neck" formations should be reasonably close, but some slop is, again, normal.

     

    Regardless, I think Poul had a good eye to catch it - it's generally well-formed enough to be considered seriously, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Hey guys,

     

    I really appreciate your detailed analysis. I am beginning to catch on to some of it. But even without it, just looking at the simple price graph of the past twelve months gives reason to smile. It's easy to see that the inflection point may be a month and a half in the rear view mirror!
    6 Feb 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Yow! (XIDE) finishes down 10.12% heading into the CC tomorrow. It was low most of the day, getting as low as $3.17 and then rising to $3.29 by 15:48 and then plummeted to as low as $3.20 by 15:59 and closed at $3.21. Last trade $2.93.

     

    Folks expecting the worst I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Exide reports bad. Enersys reports great.

     

    I think I'm just about ready to hang up my XIDE bull spurs because they just can't seem to get out of their own way.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Net loss for the fiscal 2013 third quarter was $15.4 million or $0.20 per share as compared to the prior year period net income of $68.2 million or $0.84 per share.
    The Company reported a net loss for the nine months ended December 31, 2012 of $135.8 million or $1.76 per share as compared to net income of $59.4 million or $0.72 per share in the nine months ended December 31, 2011.

     

    Just wait until the CC tomorrow, I can almost guarantee a mention of "new restructuring initiatives". Glad I got out.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    The bright side is that Axion is no longer associated with them.

     

    Character does matter in business. But how could they be in trouble after that last reorganization. They were set to make money.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Last year's net income was primarily due to reversal of a tax reserve, so it wasn't really all that hot.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    I've been out a while, and need to look, but how much of a drag is the interest on all their debt?
    6 Feb 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    $18.4 million per quarter.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Well, that's uh, certainly gonna leave a mark. Not as big a one as SG&A I guess though... But I rather think what they really need is a new truly innovative product...

     

    Say, couldn't they refinance down to these ultra-low interest rates we all keep hearing about? (that nobody can get)
    6 Feb 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    John: If they keep going that way Axion might be in position to do a leveraged buy-out, with some VC involvement, down the road and have our "capacity" problem solved really, really cheaply! ;-))

     

    Of course, I'm joking!

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    48: "that nobody can get".

     

    Savers and retirees get them.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Ye of little (or tarnished) faith (17:55 $3.33)...

     

    http://bit.ly/11XEQ3z
    6 Feb 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    On the first day of the new Era of Reckoning, TG would stride into the Axion-exide boardroom like a colossus, his footfalls heavy, the room quiet, and all those holdovers present would tremble in fear.

     

    "Good afternoon everyone..."
    6 Feb 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Tim: Not enough volume to guage anything though.

     

    After Hours Volume: 22,700
    After Hours High: $ 3.40
    After Hours Low: $ 2.93
    (16:59:59 PM)

     

    The biggest volume was 5K @ $3.26 at 16:16.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    they matter little...
    6 Feb 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    HTL: counter, only 700 shares under $3 <smile>

     

    Edit: perhaps a better counter, VWAP $3.25 after hours
    6 Feb 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but have you noticed their hybrid battery partner, MXWL, is on fire. Well over $10 now and holding--almost a double since last summer. I sold both XIDE and MXWL a few months ago to load up on AXPW. Now I wish I had held on to MXWL a little longer.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    Buy at $2.5 sell at $3.0, rinse and repeat as this cycle looks like it will continue endlessly...
    7 Feb 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    NGS:

     

    You never go broke taking a profit.
    7 Feb 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Nada until there is

     

    News

     

    News

     

    News

     

    Could go to $0.20 on a bad financing

     

    Could go to $1 and much more with news of a sustainable commercial customer

     

    It is all coming - which when and what unknown

     

    Personally - feeling great
    6 Feb 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1549) | Send Message
     
    H.T.L: looks like shares are halted
    6 Feb 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    O.R: Circuit breaker is 10% IIRC?

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    After hours shares are always interesting before the release of financials. Remember how Xide took the beating for getting rid of the Walmart contract? It was a good idea. Market punished them.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, I think it was Walmart who dropped XIDE due to too many warranties and customer complaints...XIDE basically makes junk.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    4:36 PM Exide Technologies (XIDE): FQ3 loss of ($0.20) may not be comparable to $0.02 estimate. Revenue of $804M beats by $23M. (PR) Shares currently halted. Comment! [Earnings, Breaking News]
    6 Feb 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Margin erosion in Europe automotive and another, it's almost like GM, provisional write off.

     

    http://bit.ly/XoP7Tw
    6 Feb 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    They still face the Texas closed factory lead clean up too.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    The Texas closure should be a significant net positive because the clean up costs will be treated as an offset against the gain on sale of the acreage, which Exide bought when Frisco was a sleepy little farm town.
    6 Feb 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2796) | Send Message
     
    WIth continued margin pressure

     

    http://bit.ly/XoP7Tw

     

    it won't come as a surprise to Axionistas if Exide's really scrambling to develop much higher-margin solutions. Hmmm....well, they are developing one with the ability to handle hotel loads for all of 30 seconds. Hopefully they will also develop one that is more serious.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Xide finds that lead is 48% of its battery cost.
    To bad you don't like a battery that uses 1/3rd less lead.
    And has a larger gross margin.
    And is better than anything you have.

     

    I'm simply amazed.
    6 Feb 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: My thought was how they could have been offering their potential s/s customers PbC for evaluation at scale. If their quality was poor enough to lose Walmart, maybe we were lucky they didn't take that path.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    We were extremely lucky not to get hooked up with XIDE. and I hope they are not the one who manufactures the PbC if/when it ever rolls out.
    Right now, they would stand the most to gain from the relationship compared to the other big boyz..
    6 Feb 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    Here's what earnings from a well ran company looks like:

     

    4:29 PM Enersys (ENS): Q4 EPS of $0.88 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $557.3M (-3% Y/Y) beats by $8.76M. (PR) [Earnings, Breaking News] Comment!
    6 Feb 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Innovate or die.

     

    Yah yah. Ve vill use batteries built by the Chinese on Japanese equipment paid for by US tax payers. ;)

     

    Norway is teaming up in pole position for battery-powered ships

     

    http://bit.ly/WzsFtw 09f5ea-1910-45e7-823f-...

     

    Edit:

     

    Let's try this link.

     

    http://bit.ly/UYU3Sn
    6 Feb 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Industry presses forward on lithium battery rule

     

    http://bit.ly/Xlap6r
    6 Feb 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    And in ye olden days.

     

    Axion sees future in lead-acid-carbon hybrid battery

     

    "Axion is the developer of lead-carbon (PbC) batteries, which are giving new respectability to the utterance of the word “lead.”

     

    http://bit.ly/11qIvw9

     

    And the people went forth, guided by a divine and enlightened government and said "Let it be so, that we might encapsulate this miracle of energy so that we shall forever stop propelling the weight within at great speed at each other and entomb the black stuff that warms our drinks.".

     

    (Sorry, I started smiling when I saw the lead statement in light of the conversation the other day concerning the "Scarlet Letter" feel surrounding lead.)
    6 Feb 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9977) | Send Message
     
    Hoping you New Yawkers and Rick up there in Maine are hunkering down. Looking like Nemo is going to be one whale of a storm!

     

    (Lousy line, I know...but you heard it right here, first.)

     

    ####

     

    Exide...ugh, but predictable.
    6 Feb 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    Actually looking forward to it in VT. Maya,
    Got the new plow-truck dialed in,
    & just won 3 free ski passes from the local radio station ....
    Life is good this winter.
    6 Feb 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    02/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in an hour or so).
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 78900, AvTrSz: 3288
    Min. Pr: 0.3210, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3228
    # Buys, Shares: 12 28450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3240
    # Sells, Shares: 12 50450, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3221
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (36.1% “buys”), DlyShts 9350 (11.85%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.53%

     

    Most of the day was BORING! But we did get one little thing that got my adrenalin up a bit. For the first time in a long while saw some suggestion that the sellers might be getting exhausted at this price level. It was based on TEJS and ATDF asks at $0.3225 and $0.3250 getting taken out and exposing best offers of $0.33 at ~15:00, which held steady and was accompanied by two trades at that price totaling 5K at $0.33 to close the day.

     

    <sigh> Could've been stronger stronger than 5K on the volume, but Hey! Got to bask in the little ray of sunshine when we see it, right? OK, back to work ...

     

    Our spread was 2.8%, our volume was abysmal, our average trade size stunk, the buy:sell was to the bearish side (but not excessively) ... Exactly what you might look for if (short-term?) consolidation might be about to end.

     

    We continued to trade predominately above the descending 200-day SMA ($0.3222 yesterday), as indicated by our VWAP. But it was a squeaker. ADX and related are continuing to trend negative. Accumulation/distribut... MFI, RSI and momentum oscillators are a smidgen above neutral now, while Williams %R and stochastic have entered overbought territory. I think these latter two being where they are while everything else is neutral and volume and price are doing what they are doing might be a negative sign ... or a positive sign.

     

    If they foretell a move down to our rising support, you may see that as bad. I see it as good because I think we should bounce off that and finally start our next leg up. Currently that support looks to be at $0.31. Allow a little overshoot into the mid-to-high $0.30xx range?

     

    A possible good sign from those two are that I've noticed that often when stochastic gets to overbought it can hang there quite a while and we note a price rise that accompanies that situation. But usually that rise has begun and been dragging many other oscillators along with it.

     

    We don't have that situation so I don't know how to view it. I do think some kind of move is now quite near.

     

    On my experimental charts stuff, pretty much status quo. Very small average trade size, buy:sell “normal” right in range of all averages, low volume and low daily short sales.

     

    The original inflection point calculations are still in a state of disarray, albeit with a slightly increased negative bias or decreased positive bias on four periods and slightly improved readings on two periods. The two going more positive are the 5 and 10-day periods, so there is some possibility the patterns will return to starting to form up for a positive signal issuance. But I've learned that our current configuration is not a good place to try and make a call on what's next.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2013, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Since November of 2010 the number of shares traded in this stock has been shocking. At that time the price was around $.48

     

    The accumulation of shares are still all underwater. Although in strong hands my experience tells me that there will be plenty of shares available between the $.48-$.60. Just peoples nature to sell at breakeven after being down for awhile.

     

    But not one share of mine will be on the block until Axion hits some major goals.
    7 Feb 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Axion has been a very difficult stock to buy over the last two years. I'm not talking about the supply side because that's been more than adequate. The difficulty has been watching the stock chart from hell develop, doing enough research to climb the wall of worry, buying in spite of the price behavior and holding on for the opportunity.

     

    My experience is a lot like yours when it comes to the general investing public. Fortunately I don't think the buyers over the last three years have been "normal investors," who look at a bad price chart, see the big uglies and move on.

     

    Time may prove me wrong, but I think you're far more typical than you want to believe. It takes a lot of steel to buy a stock like Axion and hold it through the tough times. Investors with steel are usually no quicker on the sell button than they were on the buy button.

     

    What I hope to see, is enough steady supply to maintain an orderly market advance but not enough lumpy supply to crush the advance. Axion has over three years of technical and business progress that isn't reflected in the stock price. It should be a fun ride for them with enough steel.
    7 Feb 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Is the pace of adding new Concentrator followers picking up?
    7 Feb 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • UnpredictableFutures
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    Greetings,

     

    Let us get this Axion candle lit... back over .35 today !
    7 Feb 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Unpredictable: No! No! That brings out the "fast money" profit takers. They recognize rocket shots are not sustainable and they clear their table and walk ... until the next cycle.

     

    IMHO, we want, as distasteful as it may seem, the halting "grind up" we've seen since early November.

     

    Trends of this nature, with all the normal ups, downs and sideways consolidations, are recognized as "sustainable". Then the "fast money" crowd tends to hang in longer and take profits on (smaller?) portions of their position.

     

    I don't *know*, of course, but it's how it looks to me.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    With no real news to drive it, AXPW is on a pace to double in price during 2013. Moves of one percent may seem trivial in a penny stock, but they get the job done over time.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    NEW YORK, NY -- (Marketwire) -- 02/07/13 -- Access to vast supplies and decade low prices for natural gas has made the commodity an attractive option as an alternative fuel. One of the major obstacles preventing widespread adoption of natural gas has been the access to the necessary infrastructure. According to the Department of Energy there are currently just 558 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) fuelling stations in the U.S. Five Star Equities examines the outlook for companies in the Auto Parts Industry and provides equity research on Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) and Westport Innovations Inc. (NASDAQ: WPRT)(TSX: WPT).
    Access to the full company reports can be found at: http://bit.ly/WwrtsH http://bit.ly/WCpzoD
    Pike Research estimates there is approximately 12.6 million Natural Gas Vehicles in use globally. That number is forecasted to grow to 19.9 million vehicles by 2016. "Many manufacturers and industry observers are looking forward to the time when consumer NGVs becomes the next big thing," says senior analyst Dave Hurst. "But the number of refueling stations remains too low for the consumer market to really take off in many parts of the developed world."
    A recent collaboration between Chesapeake Energy, General Electric and Whirlpool to develop an at home refueling station could be a major first step towards widespread adoption. The City of Beverly Hills has also recently opened up a new CNG fueling station to help serve their growing fleet of CNG vehicles.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    LT, natural gas has been taking a lot of 'alternative fuel' business away from hybrid component suppliers when it comes to trucks and buses. The market potential is large. The lifespan of shale gas wells should be a key factor.
    7 Feb 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    (NXPW): Through the first 45K shares and 11:12:43, we had a 1/100th penny spread. Now, as of 12:06:52, we have a 2.91% spread, 96/100ths. This is the sort of thing I mentioned a couple days back that would look for to suggest some kind of move is getting near.

     

    Buy:sell fairly well balanced, 1:1.27, with VWAP of $0.3321 through this time.

     

    It doesn't guarantee it's starting, or when or direction, but it's another dried pea rattling around in the wash tub.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    "It doesn't guarantee it's starting, or when or direction, but it's another dried pea rattling around in the wash tub."

     

    I have read some down home slogans on this blog, but this one is new to me.
    7 Feb 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Stolen from my long-departed father-in-law, who was full of 'em. He used to say "rattled around like a dried pea in a wash tub".

     

    Another of my favs was - he worked construction a lot and "measure twice cut once" was sometimes disregarded - "wouldn't be noticed on a galloping horse in a blinding snow storm".

     

    He was a really great guy that used to dislike me a lot until we had a political discussion one day and I told him where to get off. Thereafter I was one of his favorite sons-in-law. If I'd understood that's all it took I would changed course from just trying to get along with him much sooner.

     

    At the time we had the discussion my mother-in-law ran around screaming for her daughters to do something because she thought Paul and I were going to kill each other.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    CNBC covered fair amount of the NTSB press conference on 787, then some interviews (11 minutes)

     

    http://bit.ly/YGWLvt
    7 Feb 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Related NTSB Press Release: http://1.usa.gov/WDAs9I
    NTSB Twitter! https://twitter.com/ntsb
    7 Feb 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    NTSB has a short 2 minute video on PTC - Positive Train Control which takes up a fair amount of NSC's CapEx:
    http://bit.ly/YH9Dln

     

    Bottom line: Prevent Collisions.
    7 Feb 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    "After an exhaustive examination of the JAL lithium-ion battery, which was comprised of eight individual cells, investigators determined that the majority of evidence from the flight data recorder and both thermal and mechanical damage pointed to an initiating event in a single cell. That cell showed multiple signs of short circuiting, leading to a thermal runaway condition, which then cascaded to other cells. Charred battery components indicated that the temperature inside the battery case exceeded 500 degrees Fahrenheit."

     

    From twitter
    They have ruled out mechanical impact damage to the cells or battery.
    They have ruled out External short circuiting of the cells and battery.
    7 Feb 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Boeing's problems are too bad really. Hope everything is smooth sailing with the NS999.
    8 Feb 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Neanderthal, taking care of that karma thing, good catch. The last thing we need is more negative cosmic influences.
    8 Feb 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Australian Wind Energy Now Cheaper Than Coal, Gas, BNEF Says
    http://bloom.bg/11QalkX
    Relying on fossil fuels to produce electricity is getting more expensive because of the government’s price on carbon emissions imposed last year, higher financing costs and rising natural gas prices, BNEF said. The cost of wind generation has fallen by 10 percent since 2011 on lower equipment expenses, while the cost of solar power has dropped by 29 percent.

     

    Electricity can be supplied from a new wind farm in Australia at a cost of A$80 ($84) per megawatt hour, compared with A$143 a megawatt hour from a new coal-fired power plant or A$116 from a new station powered by natural gas when the cost of carbon emissions is included, according to a Bloomberg New Energy Finance report. Coal-fired power stations built in the 1970s and 1980s can still produce power at a lower cost than that of wind, the research shows.

     

    Driven by hydro- and wind-power projects, renewable energy contributed 9.6 percent of Australia’s electricity production in 2011, up from 8.7 percent the prior year, according to the Clean Energy Council, an industry group.
    7 Feb 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    "Relying on fossil fuels to produce electricity is getting more expensive because of the government’s price on carbon emissions imposed last year...."

     

    Tuned to just the right frequency so it resonates.
    7 Feb 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I really doubt that the $80 price includes the increased cost of standby power to make up for the intermittent wind power.
    When all costs are figured I bet its not close.
    Further NG prices are falling around the world.
    But I hope renewables keep getting cheaper.
    7 Feb 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    F:

     

    Fracking externalized costs are humongous. Gotta have potable water.
    7 Feb 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I'm not going to pretend that the oil industry never does a sloppy job, but the risks and externalized costs of hydraulic fracturing are wildly overstated by most who write on the subject.

     

    When pollutants enter the water table it's because somebody did a bad job of installing and cementing the vertical portion of the wellbore that penetrates the water table. The hydraulic fracturing operations that are conducted in horizontal well-bore extensions some 6,000 to 10,000 feet deeper are never the villain.

     

    Rock is a very funny thing. Permeability with the grain and along the plane of a subsurface formation is common. Vertical permeability through thousands of feet of rock with hundreds of layers that were deposited over geologic time is extraordinarily rare.
    7 Feb 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    That's the argument, John. Actual results have varied.
    7 Feb 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    My last oil industry gig was as securities counsel for the biggest oilfield disaster response company in the world. My team put out over 70% of the well fires in Kuwait and are living legends in the industry. I'm all too familiar with what can happen when things go wrong, but once you understand that the industry produces ~85 million barrels of oil and ~10 billion cubic meters of gas per day, you'll also understand that it has the best safety record on the planet and any reasonable actuarial analysis proves that the risks are infinitesimally small and blown all out of proportion by demagogues.
    7 Feb 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist
    This suggests that natural gas is not cheap in Australia because it is priced for export.
    http://bit.ly/YHBB0n

     

    "The results suggest that the Australian economy is likely to be powered extensively by renewable energy in the future and that investment in new fossil-fuel power generation may be limited - unless there is a sharp and sustained fall in Asia-Pacific natural-gas prices."

     

    --
    I don't know much about the price of natural gas in other markets (non US)
    Anyone have a good source?
    7 Feb 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Global gas prices are far higher than they are in the US. This graph is a bit dated, but it shows why the recent surge in US production is such an immense benefit.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/14GqYOD

     

    That price differential has producers salivating over the prospect of liquifying gas for export markets where it's three to five times more valuable.
    7 Feb 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    vertical groundwater contamination would have to defy gravity I might add, and probably no more toxic that the petro chemicals we drill for.
    7 Feb 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    not only that but it makes every inconus domestic industry (chemicals, fertilizers, etc?) that uses/can use copious amounts of cheap natgas that much more competitive...
    7 Feb 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    If there's a path to the surface hydrocarbons will follow it because they're generally under immense pressure. That being said, the problems don't arise from creating fractures 6,000 to 10,000 feet underground. They arise because somebody did a crappy job of cementing 6,000 to 10,000 feet of pipe to the surrounding rock and left channels for hydrocarbons to migrate up the outside of the well string.

     

    The solution is vigilance, care and strict regulation – not fear inspired prohibition.
    7 Feb 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Watch "FrackNation" if you want to see how the anti-NG zealots skew the claims to accomplish their goals.

     

    Here's a snippet that exemplifies what was seen throughout the film.

     

    http://bit.ly/14Gu0lY

     

    Probably some more on google can be found if you don't have AXS tv available.

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: This one's good too http://bit.ly/14Gu0lY
    7 Feb 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I spent a lot of time in Houston and the most strident complaints about oil and gas pollution always seemed to spring from the fertile minds of landowners who either didn't own the mineral rights on their land or didn't have minerals on their land. In all cases, the root cause was jealousy that the neighbors derived a tremendous benefit from development while they didn't.
    7 Feb 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    John, thanks for the EIA link!
    7 Feb 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    More on Australia (which has great solar resource)
    http://bit.ly/XbzVwG
    Distributed generation rooftop solar has shifted the summer demand peak in South Australia. (with graphs)
    7 Feb 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    John:

     

    If one determines risk by calculating the probability of a particular event occurring based on the frequency with which it has in the past, one will arrive at one number.

     

    If one calculates risk by estimating the extent of the damage a catastrophic failure would cause, one might arrive at another.

     

    Oilmen have used both calculations in recent times: the utter unacceptability if Saddam Hussein were to possess WMD; the unlikelihood that the XL pipeline, Northern Gateway, or Deep Horizon might spill.

     

    How vested one is in going ahead with a particular project versus how vested one is in that the Ogallalla Aquifer or New York City's water supply not be contaminated determines which of these two calculations of risk one uses.

     

    I would rather not get into a shouting match over which to use in a particular case about which you and I might disagree.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    It will take one far wiser than me to find a solution that satisfies all interests.

     

    Since I'm delighted to agree to disagree on any matter of personal opinion, many with firm convictions find arguments with me unsatisfying because I understand that my opinions are only important to me.

     

    I try to live by the rule that facts are facts but my opinion won't get me a cup of coffee from Starbucks unless I include a $5 bill in the trade.
    8 Feb 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    Bill. I just happen to be a hydrogeologist and I can tell you with certainty that upward hydraulic gradients are quite common in nature, so no gravity defying is necessary. If you were correct, there could be no such thing as an Artesian aquifer.
    8 Feb 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    NGS:

     

    The intention of my post was to let this particular off-topic controversy fade with everyone feeling reasonable and unprovoked, so my reply here is not an attempt to fan the flames of argument in order to give people who like to fight an opportunity to get self-righteous.

     

    I must, however, object to your putting words in my mouth.

     

    According to your post, if I "were correct" there could be no such thing as an Artesian aquifer.

     

    I have never said to anyone ever that upward hydraulic gradients are not common in nature.

     

    It seems that you have convinced yourself that the only factor that determines whether fracking will or will not contaminate a water supply is whether "upward hydraulic gradients" occur or do not occur in nature.

     

    Have you ever heard the expression: to a man carrying a hammer, everything looks like a nail?

     

    A rare anomaly in the structure of a rock or a rare coincidence of human errors can have catastrophic consequences.

     

    Please don't insult me by reducing the complexities of a complex subject to whether the physics of Artesian wells has been proved or not.

     

    And please do not invite me to continue thus thread. I made a remark to John about calculating risk. I am not interested enough in fracking to play dueling article links about it.
    8 Feb 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    billa>, I think NGS was responding to Bill Burtchael rather than you because the discussion of hydraulic gradients was relevant to Bill's earlier post but not relevant to yours.
    8 Feb 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, John.

     

    Now you know what I look like when I get hot under the collar.

     

    Apologies to NGS. Apologies to all.

     

    I feel a little embarrassed.

     

    No offense intended.
    8 Feb 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    John, One of the things that has some room for improvement at SA is the way they layer their message threads. Seems many start their response with the moniker of the poster to compensate for this less than obvious response chain sequencing.
    -
    Sorry if this was posted.

     

    After Boeing Dreamliner fiasco, Airbus relooks at A350 batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/14I5Wz2
    8 Feb 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    billa> we have enough real things people can disagree over so I figure it's important to try and nip misunderstandings in the bud. Beyond that I wouldn't worry because we all go off on tangents from time to time.
    8 Feb 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Cool stuff. I worked on the Exxon Valdez job and actually got an invitation to go to Kuwait to help with the oil mess there. I declined and that was the last time I was offered 6 figures.
    9 Feb 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    I think Kuwait was a good place to avoid in those days. It was really funny after the fires were put out because Adair, Hansen and Matthews all came back to Houston with enough cash to decide they didn't want to walk into another burning well with a thousand pounds of dynamite. So Adair sold to Global Marine and Hansen & Matthews sold to private equity. My opportunity to put the entire team back together under one roof only arose because the buyers didn't know how to manage crazy men.

     

    I have more than my share of stories, but my wife Rachel has even more. Unfortunately we're both bound by attorney-client confidentiality.
    9 Feb 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    I don't imply that nothing from below "ever" reaches the surface. but I can tell you that building homes in the mountains of NC, & GA, there were NO water utilities available. All of the homes required a well for fresh water, each well required a sample to be tested for the water to be certified for consumption. We almost never drilled a well deeper than 300 ft, and never had a well sample failure. I don't have any way to tell you from how deep below the surface this vein of fresh water came. My point was, fracing forces fluids into the ground at 5000-10000 feet deep, I don't know of Any evidence that has tracked fracing fluids from that depth to the surface. Do you? Please reference if you do I would like to research it.
    11 Feb 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (8072) | Send Message
     
    It seems that some contamination can come from above in the form of frack fluid storage ponds, treatment facilities, and transportation trucks. In some cases they have been taking fracking brine, some of it rather radioactive, and spraying it on roads for deicing. Localities are involved in banning that practice.
    12 Feb 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Minnesota firm aims to store a small slice of power grid

     

    "Four Minnesota electric cooperatives recently began installing Silent Power’s OnDemand Energy Appliance at 16 locations, typically in customers’ garages, to study whether they make economic sense. The project is partly funded by the U.S. Department of Energy."

     

    "He said one of Silent Power’s appeals was that its technology is approved by Underwriters Laboratory, an independent safety testing organization."

     

    "Silent Power has developed circuitry to control and convert power. It relies on batteries from other manufacturers. The units are assembled in Baxter, 130 miles northwest of the Twin Cities. Frederick said the company mainly uses lead-acid batteries, though units with higher-storage lithium-ion batteries also can be ordered."

     

    http://bit.ly/WDv32a
    7 Feb 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    OnDemand™ Energy Appliance
    An all-in-one PV solar inverter system
    with built-in battery backup

     

    http://bit.ly/WWprBw
    9 Feb 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Joe Piccirilli better get on the stick.
    9 Feb 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    looks like a lower-power output HUB (with probably not as clean an A/V friendly output) using high-energy AGM batteries... Axion could sell batteries to these guys too, if the application suited well... curious as to how the charge/discharge cycle profiles of this product would match up with the PbC vs conventional AGM.... what's more called for here, an energy battery or a power battery? One that hangs out at 100% SOC most of the time until called upon in an outage, or one that cycles to some shallow extent throughout the day (and occasionally deeply) and hangs out most of its life at some intermediate SOC? Is the cost delta per KWh for PbC over conventional AGM worth it in this case? Again, all comes back to the question of whether what's most suited is a power battery or energy battery... the PbC is more a daily workhorse, not a "break glass in case of emergency" energy source... to my mind, it's really going to depend on the house, its usage profile, and the proportion of grid / renewables that are used..
    9 Feb 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    using "GS Battery, Sealed VRLA AGM"
    4 batteries weigh 600 pounds, deliver 246 Amp hours at 12 volts each.
    Total energy storage of 4 batteries is 11.8 kWh.

     

    600 pounds of PbC could cycle more, accept charge faster. Could it provide 11.8 kWh?
    9 Feb 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    From the FAQ: What is the life expectancy of the batteries?

     

    This is another “it all depends” questions. Mostly it depends upon Depth of Discharge (DOD) and some other factors like temperature. This is the simplest way to explain the life expectancy of the batteries: If the batteries only discharge 20% each time, they will last 3000 cycles. If they discharge 50% each time they will last 1000 cycles. If they discharge 80% each time they will only last 300 cycles. A cycle is considered each time the batteries are discharged then charged. Even if the batteries are used infrequently, they have a shelf life of about 8 years.

     

    How long does it take to charge the batteries?

     

    Again this depends upon Depth of Discharge (DOD). Typically, the batteries will fully charge within about 8 hours. They can be charged by the grid, solar, or combination.
    9 Feb 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    D Lane
    No PbC holds less total energy but can handle more ups and downs and Partial SOC. Th e daily workhorse 48... alluded to above.

     

    Unless of course you add batteries.
    PbC will be more expensive pound for pound.
    9 Feb 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Just to try to expand on what I meant... I think we should always keep in mind the distinction between "energy battery" roles/applications and "power battery" roles and applications. The best role for the PbC is clearly as a power battery---an energy shock absorber or processor if you will... it's really not an overly great energy source, but it's outstanding as an energy exchange device. Energy exchange device implies that *charging* be just as important if not more so in the application as discharging. As Dr. B has emphasized, the PbC excels at being an exchange device because its rate of discharge and charge acceptance are far more balanced than conventional lead acid. So we have to focus on applications for the PbC that involve processing a lot of energy, not just storing it. For the HUB/silent power products under discussion, ISTM that you could have two extremes, each being much more suited to one battery over the other... in the first case, let's say you have a fairly reliable grid and not much solar PV or wind installed... so your silentpower product/HUB (apart from its ultra clean AV output) is really just a big emergency UPS... the batteries are pretty much at 100% SOC all the time, not doing much work, just sitting there waiting for a power outage...when that outage occurs they will deliver their energy to cover the emergency for some limited time, and if you have a generator, they will discharge and charge fairly deeply for some period (days to weeks perhaps) until the grid is restored and they can go back to sitting around as energy insurance.. for this case ISTM conventional AGM lead acid is probably the right choice... whatever really is the fewest dollars / KWh of storage wins, provided shelf life is good. Contrast this now to a different situation... say it's a big rural home with somewhat flakier grid reliability as well as ample room for an extensive PV array and/or windturbine...(the remote / offgrid ie telecom station application profile can also be a lot like this) Now the HUB like device and its batteries can play a much larger and more active role... the homeowner wants to minimize their electric bill and maximize their power quality and reliability... the HUB with PbC has a lot more energy to process from the PV/windturbine... all the peakshaving, demand shifting, time shifting we've talked about before... even to the extent that every night, the HUB could provide for most of the home's loads from the PbCs...from energy stored up from excess PV/wind during the day. If the PbC's are in fact used this way... used and charged during the day and discharged somewhat every night, even when tied to the grid, that's when they start to come into their own and really make sense... but again it all depends on how much energy they're going to process/exchange day in day out..,and for the HUB-like application that all depends on the proportion of RE inputs to total load outputs... the higher the ratio, the more sense PbC makes over conventional AGM. Bottom line, PbC needs to be a daily workhorse to really make sense... it needs to be called upon to swap energy in and out frequently and/or at high power-rates to really shine and deliver its value. Because of its other virtues of reasonable cost, safety, durability and long life, I believe the PbC will eventually find some home in every application that calls for that kind of back and forth energy exchange. Applications that need lots of energy on standby to be delivered only infrequently, not so much...
    9 Feb 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    That's a very good assessment and explanation 481086.

     

    It also points out why most applications that want to cycle a battery once a day are almost impossible from an economic perspective.

     

    Assume that the value of a stored kWh of electricity in a stationary application is $0.10. If you cycle 1 kWh through a battery once a day your value stream is $36.50 per year. If you cycle 1 kWh through a battery 10 times per day, your value stream is $365 per year.

     

    Unless the value of a stored kWh is extremely high, like the kWh that avoids a shut-down in a data center, infrequent cycling offers the worst economics imaginable.

     

    Any battery that takes 8 to 10 hours to charge will have an extremely hard time cycling often enough to pay for itself because there are only 24 hours in the typical day.
    9 Feb 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree 48,
    I keep saying that the PbC cycles so very very well. Posters keep coming up with applications that don't require extreme cycling.
    We are King in a string that cycles more time that Lance Armstrong ever thought of.

     

    Find applications using those parameters and we have a winner.
    9 Feb 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    48, wonderfully said. However...the return button is on the right-hand side of your keyboard, if you hit it twice in a row it creates these wonderfully visually appealing breaks between mountains of letters that otherwise appear to be code that can only be cracked by John Nash. :)

     

    http://bit.ly/V7kiWI
    9 Feb 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. I take that as high praise. Just trying to grapple with and internalize all the discussion and information with which we have been blessed, and hopefully help add something to the S/N ratio with whatever contribution I can make. But it kills me that our conundrum still seems to be something of a chicken and egg problem-- here we have the PbC arriving as a new excellent power battery... one that it truly scalable to be a relevant solution to a great many long-standing needs... *but* in order for the PbC to be taken up in great numbers to begin to fill those roles for which it is exquisitely suited, the specific applications that would best utilize the PbC to fill those needs all still have to develop, grow, and mature concurrently with the PbCs introduction and adoption... the PbC hasn't been available before and so drop-in applications for it haven't really existed either--they have to be grown to some extent... and that seems to be the long process we're in now: the PbC and its best applications discovering and growing each other in a grand but slow symbiosis. NSC seems so close.. ePower even closer... the PC, just god right there... And I, I just keep waiting for it all to explode any minute now--like one of those time-lapse greenhouse kind of films.. when everything just starts blooming like Spring McJeezus!
    9 Feb 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    48 and JP, thanks for the responses. I need lots of repetition to better understand batteries. They really are confusing with all of the different metrics that are important for value.
    The quick charging of course is key and I think I'm understanding that in a new way when it comes to stationary storage.
    Can anyone speak to how quick-charging would help a HUB owner, say one in a post disaster scenario with no grid power for days, but with a fairly large solar array? If charging via solar, this owner would not need the sun to shine as long as one who only had AGM?
    And if the sun was shining intermittently, the batteries could recharge again the next time the clouds parted for adequate amount of time. In fact more charging would be necessary sooner since the PbC does not hold as much energy as a competitor AGM.
    Sound right?
    9 Feb 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Thanks jak, sincerely, I'll try to take that onboard...
    9 Feb 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    48..excellent analysis, my only concern is which mkt. is the largest. My first impression is that most want storage with say 8 hours of back up power instead of the "load leveling" that PbC does.
    I would think I could sell 10 storage systems to 1 load leveling.

     

    Is this why Rosewater is now looking at other types of batteries?
    9 Feb 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    D Lane... the one way I could see it helping the HUB owner, other than of course being to able to absorb a lot of excess PV / windturbine input, is that the PbC's high absorption would also apply with a standby generator, which I would think nearly everyone who would buy a HUB would have also.

     

    Natgas/propane standby generators are readily available at around 12-20KW and beyond so if you have the charge acceptance, you could use one operating at high output (where it's most efficient) to recharge the bank fairly quickly, even if the sun weren't shining.

     

    One example: Big house, drawing 4KW on average... you have 12KWh bank of PbC like in the HUB... you have both PV and a 20KW propane generator... cloudy day after big snow or ice storm, powerlines likely to be down for a week..

     

    Let's say you only want the battery bank to draw down to 4KWh of capacity.... so over the course of two hours of the house on the battery 8KWh is consumed.

     

    At which point the generator kicks on, outputting 20 KW...4KW of that goes to the load... 16KW excess to the batteries... and at that rate, the batteries are fully charged again in 1/2 an hour... at which point your generator shuts off, and you go another couple of hours again quietly on the battery.. If I understand correctly AGM's just couldn't do that. You couldn't draw them down to 33% SOC and then recharge them fully again in half an hour. With PbC you can.

     

    Also, I'd say 4KW is actually a pretty big load and the more one could drop back on that, the longer of course would be the runtime on battery alone.. 2KW gets you four hours etc... and so the generator would cycle less frequently.. but still only need half an hour to bring the bank up to full...
    9 Feb 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    48, regarding the chicken and egg problem. You are on to something and reminded me of an article I'd read.
    Another Catch-22 is that buyers require precedent (a proven track record) and precedents require funding.
    THE CATCH-22 OF ENERGY STORAGE PROJECT FINANCING
    http://bit.ly/120tj8u
    "Here, the “Catch-22” scenario comes into play, as project funding requires meaningful precedents, and precedents require funding."

     

    (Whats the solution? Think PowerCube)
    "Redefine “utility-scale” projects: Location-targeted, 1 to 2 MW projects can provide great value for utilities and end customer by avoiding otherwise large infrastructure upgrade costs. In addition, they do so in smaller dollar chunks (i.e., several million dollars) that can be handled by investors and thoughtful risk managers. The key is to provide an overwhelming value proposition for all parties. In our experience, the hesitancy to assume technology risk can be overcome with lower overall project cost numbers and high returns for both utility customers and investors.
    9 Feb 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    I hear you there LT... KWh per dollar is what it comes down if that's the only consideration, but still I would think the safety, long-life, and quick recharge capability of the PbC is going to count for something in many customer's calculus...
    9 Feb 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    DL, great link. definitely correlates with what I think we've seen and experienced these last couple of years...
    9 Feb 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Aww-shucks 48, I love the way you talk. Its like a thick north Irish accent that is well worth the strain to hear what you have to say. :-)
    10 Feb 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Your comment has been published:
    It seems Enersys (ENS) was a little less positive than it first appeared down 1.7% and dropping.

     

    Exide is down 10.6%

     

    Our new friend The probable P&D (ECAU.OB) got another article today
    Echo Automotive: The $155 Million Company Driven By Promotional Steam
    Down 22%
    7 Feb 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1027) | Send Message
     
    I called an old friend yesterday to share a bit about Axion, and to ask if she might be interested in learning more (she is). She's long had what I've considered to be a good business sense (her father was a businessman/insurance agent). -- I don't believe she has much of a technical orientation.

     

    I thought I would send her a link to the APC series, and 2-3 more links to JP's articles that give the best overview of things at this time. I was wondering if anybody could suggest the best articles for her to read as an introduction to the opportunity of investing in Axion. --- She's the kind of person that if she likes something, can quite quickly become very proactive about it. She even mentioned on the phone about an investment company she's in contact with that is always looking for unique opportunities to invest in. --- Thanks for any tips you could provide.
    7 Feb 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Also, wasn't there an external background piece from a magazine that told a bit of the "story" of Axion the company... I think titled "against all odds" or something like that?... I thought it gave a pretty good flavor of the key players and the early timeline... not strictly investment information, but still might be worthwhile.. I would guess JP has the link handy...
    7 Feb 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    48, Here's the link.

     

    http://bit.ly/IgjJVT
    7 Feb 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    That's the one... many thanks ii, don't know if it's really what WIO would be looking for, but it covers a lot of ground and is a pretty good story to boot...
    7 Feb 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    48, I think it's an excellent suggestion for a first read link packet.
    7 Feb 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2864) | Send Message
     
    JP's editor's picks are a must read primer as well.

     

    http://bit.ly/11RqeYj
    7 Feb 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately that list is getting pretty long and there are a lot of folks who are disinclined to do that much work at one sitting.
    7 Feb 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1940) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, As primers I liked JP's two recent articles "Axion Power: A battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" and "Lithium Ion Batteries Were A Bust but Advanced Lead Acid Batteries are Booming"

     

    http://bit.ly/We3VtG

     

    http://bit.ly/QYo0kB
    7 Feb 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • UnpredictableFutures
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    Thanks jakurtz. Those were handy.
    9 Feb 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1027) | Send Message
     
    Thanks much for the tips! I just got the e-mail sent out. Jakurtz, I agree those two articles are great primers. I noticed there are about 700 total comments on the two articles as well. That should give her plenty to chew on for a while! :) I'll get back if she decides to make an investment...
    7 Feb 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    TENSOR on show at IMHX

     

    "GNB Industrial Power, a division of Exide Technologies, will be showing its new high-power, lead-acid battery – TENSOR – for the first time in the UK at IMHX. GNB Industrial Power will use IMHX to debut its new highpower..."

     

    "This new product is aimed at meeting the increasing demands placed on today's trucks and the environments in which they operate. The high performance TENSOR battery is the answer to these growing challenges as well as providing the energy efficiency required by many companies, says GNB. TENSOR is said to be ideal for use in heavy-duty applications, cold-storage environments, high-rack facilities, accessory equipment and 24/7 applications."

     

    ""Depending on the application and operating conditions, TENSOR shows an 18 percent increase in truck running time when compared to a conventional traction battery and the availability of the truck can be further increased by fast (opportunity) charging the battery.

     

    Ultimately, this is what most companies look for when buying a battery," concludes Dr Kai Ruth."

     

    http://bit.ly/YdL2Ct
    7 Feb 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Aswath Damodaran is a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, where he teaches corporate finance and equity valuation. Rather well known ... Google him.

     

    Good twitter follow: http://bit.ly/YHxNMm

     

    Has 2 courses just starting that you can audit ...
    Corporate Finance, and Valuation.

     

    http://bit.ly/11t4Ucg

     

    Or you can see previous versions as well.
    7 Feb 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5073) | Send Message
     
    WTB..have him do a "valuation" on AXPW :)

     

    Nice find Indelco
    7 Feb 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: great links - I'll be "attending" as time permits. Since they are downloadable, I can participate without having to "schedule" around other things.

     

    Thanks sir!

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    WTB good find.
    7 Feb 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (305) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the links
    8 Feb 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    If you've ever shot with a bow and arrow you need to see this.

     

    http://bit.ly/YdW2jn
    7 Feb 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Must have chosen different diameter tubing for the first and second arrows. I doubt it would have looked the same if the O.D. of the second arrow needed to draw (Increase the I.D.) of the first arrow to pass through.

     

    Nice shot. But I still like seeing the wood split! But alas tubular metal arrows are more accurate.
    7 Feb 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Hmmmm.

     

    Transpower

     

    "Rail-Saver™ is a rail electrification concept featuring a battery tender car that gives existing diesel locomotives a zero-emissions operating mode for up to 150 miles."

     

    http://bit.ly/YdXT7I
    7 Feb 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    II
    They use Li Ion for their trucks. i didn't see anything specific on the train.
    I assume PbC would work, but a lot more weight. I don't think that would matter on a train.
    150 mi seems too much, except if going east to west in CA where you might want to get across the state and through the Rockies. In which case it's not enough.
    An interesting idea. variable sized modular setups seem like a better one tho.
    Perhaps we should give NFS the Idea.
    7 Feb 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, Understood. But there are patents on the concept. I posted the NSC patent which they just received recently.
    7 Feb 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    iindelco
    OK the Transpower site just officially got weird.
    There were some anomalies and began to wonder about it but this takes the cake.
    In the about us section their mission and product statement says:

     

    "A revolutionary new hybrid nuclear technology that combines nuclear fusion and fission in a way that can produce tremendous amounts of energy without the risks associated with conventional nuclear power."

     

    http://bit.ly/YXDolL

     

    That would indeed be revolutionary.
    7 Feb 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    My favorite was in their "Space Transportation" section

     

    "Hybrid Nuclear Propulsion

     

    Benefits of Hybrid Nuclear Reactor for space flight:
    * 20 to 200 times the specific impulse [ISP] of conventional chemical rockets, with very high thrust
    * Mass to orbit increased from ~4% to >90% of total rocket mass
    * Single stage to orbit and beyond
    * Reduce launch costs by two orders of magnitude
    * Enable truly routine, airplane-like operations"

     

    http://bit.ly/XpBx4n

     

    With an office next door to Tiramisu Massage they have to be a leading contender for DOE loans and grants.

     

    http://bit.ly/XpCo57
    7 Feb 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    froggey77, sounds like the Transpower site was hacked by the "nuts and flakes" brigade :-)

     

    The only hybrid fission-fusion device I know of is an H bomb. The tech they speak of MUST be new!
    7 Feb 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Nuclear pulse propulsion goes back to 1947:
    http://bit.ly/Xq7Hwz

     

    Edit:
    There is an interesting book "The Starship and the Canoe" about Freeman Dyson who wanted to do this.
    7 Feb 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, This paper from their site. ;)

     

    http://bit.ly/VL5CPy

     

    I'd prefer they use the pulse power reactor on the train in a vacuum tunnel.
    8 Feb 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Gosh, with an efficient (neutrons/kWh) neutron source all sorts of nifty gadgets are possible! But I don't know of any such source.

     

    Oil well loggers have been using electrically powered neutron generators small enough to drop down a well for at least 30 years. You can buy one for your school nuclear lab. Not cheap, but not all that pricey, either. But you need to put in lots of electricity to run the particle accelerator to produce the neutrons, using a fusion reaction in tritium.

     

    If the neutron source discussed in the paper is being developed now, it sure is a low key project! My guess is, this was a serious push to suck up some govmint money by GA. I wonder if it worked? :-)

     

    I still hold out hope for IEC fusion, as per the Polywell. But that concept isn't receiving much money at present, even though it looked good back in 2007. I can't help but think of the billions of USD spent on magnetic confinement plasma experiments, with the current result of a very expensive Tokomac toy building in the EU. Sigh.
    8 Feb 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    SHB,

     

    Yeah, I scratched my head looking at that paper, which has two deuterium nuclei fusing to yield free neutrons to drive the thorium and uranium fission process. Using a Tritium + Deuterium mix gives two-orders-of-magnitude better yield of neutrons in any conditions we humble mortals can create here on earth.

     

    http://bit.ly/Xte800

     

    In order for two 2H+ deuterium atoms to yield a free neutron, a 3He alpha particle must be created, but it does not yield the energy that banging a 3H+ into a 2H+ to yield 4He and a free neutron does, and is much less efficient in a human-engineered neutron generator. see figure: http://bit.ly/14YxLEj

     

    Banging deuterium together is better left to the stars if efficient production of energy is the goal: http://bit.ly/Xte9Ry
    8 Feb 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >froggey77 ... That's not so weird. Use fission to trigger energy production with a fusion reaction. Only downside I see is there is no magnetic box in existence that can contain a fusion reaction (I think the record is 300 ms). They make very small hydrogen bombs. It's a product that should sell well to the revolutionary minded folks of the world.
    7 Feb 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Silicon-DRich
    So you're saying it really is a good source of power?

     

    It really wouldn't have the risks of regular nuke power?

     

    Possibly there are some other minor down side risks?
    Equivalent to... say.... global thermonuclear war?

     

    Well, at least there's no CO2.
    7 Feb 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4672) | Send Message
     
    >froggey77 ... I like the idea of fusion power. The boys & girls at CERN are also big fans and think sometime in the next 100 years our great-grandchildren scientist will figure it out.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Hydrogen is pretty awesome stuff. IMO, fuel cells are the future of energy. Fuel cells enable distributed power, my preference, while fusion reactors, as imagined today, most certainly do not.

     

    Nonetheless, Heavy hydrogen for fusion Power could be awesome too, maybe. I drove by the Princeton Plasma Physics site every day for 10 years up until 2009 - money was flowing in, but no energy was flowing out. I regret I missed a chance to get a tour a few years back.

     

    As imagined, fusion power does have fewer risks then fission nuclear, pretty much all related to the fuel (whether deuterium from the oceans or helium-3 from the moon). No meltdowns possible, no long-term waste (I'm sure there would be on-site metals getting activated, but nothing like spent fuel rods, which wouldn't be that big a problem if the latest gen reactors were being used, anyway), and if anything went wrong at all with containment, the reaction would instantly be quenched.

     

    However, until the thing has been done, we can't be certain of that or of anything really, not whether the wonderful idea of fusion (i.e., unlimited energy from "unlimited" fuel) will ever be possible, feasible or economical.

     

    Or even necessary. Because in the next 100 years it is far more likely that someone somewhere will design an enzyme/catalyst that generates hydrogen and oxygen from ocean water for nothing. (not likely any American though, given the very sad state and direction of public education in the US, which is far better at producing adults who produce nothing and end up on public assistance, where they can then be counted on to shill for the State and vote for higher taxes. rant over.)
    9 Feb 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Dananie
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Edmund M,
    There will not ever be a catalyst that generates hydrogen and oxygen from water - without a massive input of energy. Water is at the bottom of the energy well, and it takes a lot of energy to break it up into its constituents; that thermodynamics will be true a century from now. Hydrogen is merely an energy carrier, and the energy has to come from somewhere. A high temperature nuclear reactor could conceivably split water, perhaps economically, given a way to separate the product H and O.

     

    Concerning the beautiful energy dreams of fuel cells and fusion reactors, all that's needed are breakthroughs. For example, fuel cells really need a dirt cheap, high activity, long lasting catalyst to replace precious metal catalysts-if nature permits it. Other breakthroughs would also be needed before cool became cheap in the fuel cell world. One cannot guess when or where or by whom or at what cost the breakthrough in materials or process will occur.

     

    AXPW has shown just how difficult even a relatively well-understood energy technology is to commercialize, no technical breakthroughs needed!
    9 Feb 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    This beats watching paint dry.

     

    Never say not ever. Though I probably do, too. Strictly speaking, if you limit your statement to "catalysts" of the "ordinary" sort, like the platinum group metals, you are right. For water-splitting, energy must be input in some form. But by enzymes and catalysts I meant to include those which do allow for energy input, perhaps via on-board fuel sources, like associated ATP molecules, possibly with thermodynamically favorable conformational changes etc. possibly in some synergistic dance.

     

    My point was mostly that I beleive that the commercial production of relevant quantities of energy via "normal" hydrogen from water is likely to occur sooner (far more likely or far sooner) than from heavy hydrogen via fusion.

     

    There is a lot of relevant quality research being done in this area. And FAR MORE scientists can work on this problem than will ever be able to work on a tokamak. And if solved it would lead to a far more distributive power supply.

     

    In any case, the thermodynamics of water-splitting are not all that problematic. We know it occurs in photosynthesis, for example - and who's afraid of a meltdown when they're walking by a tree or a pond of algae? Can we take cells out of the equation and reproduce their photosynthetic machinery, the enzymes, catalysts and organelles? It's already happening. Along with several other very cool approaches. Some of which consume carbon dioxide. The idea looks better by the minute. Fusion? Not so much.

     

    http://bit.ly/11xo7K5
    9 Feb 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    More on Exide. Stop-Start came up in the conference call. The below is pasted from the transcript available here on SA:
    --
    Okay. My other question is about the start-and-stop battery system that JCI has been talking about, the 48-volt system that includes both lead and lithium ion. I believe they provided a time of 2016 when both lithium ion and lead would merge together and provide a 48-volt battery system for start-and-stop applications. Are you – do you guys – are you guys doing everything on that front? Do you guys see that technology take off? And what are your thoughts on that?

     

    Jim Bolch (CEO of Exide):
    I guess what I would say is that there are quite a few different potential systems being discussed by the OEMs to serve the stop/start market. The system you describe is one of many. We’re participating across a number of fronts, as we talked, AGM, but also the MHF solution, which has been very strong with our customers in Europe, certainly at the lower cost point. But also a standpoint of we’ve done some work with Maxwell, with a supercapacity solution. So I think this is going to be a long-term solution and it’s going to depend a lot on the manufacturers and individual applications. But we’re participating across a broad spectrum of them.
    7 Feb 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    What Jim Bolch ( CEO of Exide) really meant:

     

    " We are spending money trying to find a solution better than we had in 2009. It is hard to find. Since it would be ridiculous for us to put our tail between our legs and go back to Axion, we have partnered up with everybody else trying to equal their results. We figure if nobody ever buys from Axion, we will have been proven right. Except for BMW, NS, and ePower we are 100% right so far.
    7 Feb 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1369) | Send Message
     
    Anyone know what the MHF solution is (from the Exide quote)?
    7 Feb 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    believe it's "micro hybrid flooded"
    7 Feb 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    MHF is old school flooded lead acid battery plus carbon addictive. Exide is more willing to tout MHF solution probably because capex for MHF is substantially less compared to AGM. Many OEMs are willing to receive this kind of products as long as they could kick the can down the road.

     

    Good thing is Jim Bolch does not think JCI's solution very attractive.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Thank God the answer to your lead acid battery dreams have been realized.
    This company has changed the particle size!!!!!!!

     

    Dr. Buiel, please explain why this is nonsense.

     

    http://bit.ly/XbyT3S
    7 Feb 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, It's not nonsense. It's a variant of what Axion has and it will not be coming to market soon. It's been posted here before and I think it started with S.M. ( Short abbreviation. I'll not show my lack of linguistic skills in the German language.). Hat's off.
    7 Feb 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    The article Futurist posted is more recent. Here's a link to a version with much more details about the 200V Dhar battery pack (still, not enough details to judge what they are doing with "particle sizes" and what the lead-based battery configuration is): http://bit.ly/WAxHTt

     

    "Dhar isn't saying that lead-acid alone will be viable in electric cars. Instead, he wants to combine the high energy density of li-ion with the power delivery of lead-acid—two battery types working together in one cost-effective pack. Again, he promises the same performance at considerably less cost. At $800 per kilowatt hour (an upper end estimate), a 30-kWh battery becomes a $15,000 cost to the manufacturer, which explains why you’re not getting into a LEAF for less than $30,000 (without government incentives)."
    9 Feb 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Here is what I found:

     

    >>The EPS battery is a single unit that results in a more direct energy path, Dhar says. Cells are positioned in an interlocking pattern in a single-cavity configuration, similar to the way bricks are laid to create a wall.

     

    >>“So you get rid of all these extra connections, these extra lead terminals,” he explains. “You reduce the weight (and) the (electrical) resistance.”

     

    This sounds like more bipolar nonsense. If you don't deal with the fact that the active material in the negative cannot charge fast, you will go nowhere.

     

    Seriously, a lead acid battery can produce a short circuit current >1000A until it is dead. But only charges continuously at 2-5A. How do people keep ignoring this imbalance? Every green tech application that I have looked at needs a balance of charge/discharge that is different from the "charge slow for a long time and then use the energy" which is the conventional way to use batteries. This doesn't provide for regenerative braking in vehicles, power spikes from solar/wind, ancillary grid service, etc, etc.

     

    Conventional use = who cares, charge all the time until you need it.
    Green use = you better have a balance of charge/discharge or you will be useless.

     

    You can put lipstick on a pig... This technology appears to be useless unless I am missing the majic potion they fed the negative.

     

    Ed.
    9 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Don't sugar coat it Ed. Tell us what you really think ;-)
    9 Feb 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Really?
    I understand that China has a booming economy and a growing middle class. But SUV sales growing by 61%

     

    Vehicle sales totaling 20 million vehicles per year?

     

    Is it any wonder why companies like ZBB are being influenced to sell to the Asian markets.

     

    http://bloom.bg/VKylnL
    7 Feb 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1027) | Send Message
     
    "Vehicle sales totaling 20 million vehicles per year?"

     

    And virtually every one of them is paid for with cash.
    8 Feb 2013, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • BugEYE
    , contributor
    Comments (194) | Send Message
     
    Many if not most Chinese people buy cars not for commute but for social recognition. Nothing makes them happier than a gas guzzling exotic brand masculine SUV in that regard.
    And a large percent of commuters do not have to pay their gas. Their companies cover that as a means of employee welfare and tax reduction.
    Tesla, if not an EV, should definitely be a hit in China.
    Those mini cars, except SMART from Daimler AG, are regretfully unpopular though a dozen of SMART copycats are readily available. The reason why is obvious to me.
    8 Feb 2013, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    EaglePicher Technologies, LLC,......has been selected by ATK ... to design and construct a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) at a Utah facility. ATK..... will utilize EPT’s PowerPyramid™ technology to provide peak-shaving energy solutions with a 300kW/1.2MWh system at its 20,000-acre manufacturing site in Promontory, Utah.

     

    http://bit.ly/TS9ufZ
    8 Feb 2013, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/14GZ595

     

    eery. perhaps a lurker?
    8 Feb 2013, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Not really. The article espouses the idea of "zero emissions", a myth that has been dispelled here on numerous occasions. EV emissions are simply displaced to the power suppliers for the grid.

     

    Just how much CO2 et al the power company puts out to charge the batteries is a matter of debate.

     

    The emissions of an ICE continue to drop. Certainly CO2 is the big issue, but on-board sequestration might be possible with certain technologies already in sight. I'm thinking you might have two tanks, one with fuel, the other with "spent fuel". Fill up and empty at the same time. [Personally I like global warming; CO2 fertilizes plant life and we are due for an Ice Age anyway. Global cooling is a FAR worse scenario.]

     

    Of course once we "solve" the so-called CO2 problem, I'm convinced that the private-vehicle haters will just start bitchin' about the water vapor we are producing. So we'll sequester that too.

     

    The only vehicle I want is one that gives me more freedom, not less.
    9 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: "CO2 fertilizes plant life and we are due for an Ice Age anyway".

     

    One problem is that we keep doing deforestation faster than the planet can replenish.

     

    We need to get that trend reversed as part of an overall strategic plan for handling any potential adverse effects of man's existence on this orb.

     

    This doesn't even address the tendency for more deserts to appear just from nature's activities.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    You're absolutely right. As a "tree-hugger" since my youth, we have to do better. Good thing is trees can replenish themselves quite quickly, if not the "old growth forest". I just watched a Nat Geo (or similar) special presentation on the Boreal Coniferous Forest which encircles the globe in the Far North. Amazing stuff.
    9 Feb 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    02/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hour)..
    # Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 17500, Vol 170389, AvTrSz: 6085
    Min. Pr: 0.3246, Max Pr: 0.3289, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3263
    # Buys, Shares: 15 114389, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3265
    # Sells, Shares: 13 56000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3258
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.04:1 (67.1% “buys”), DlyShts 22205 (13.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.65%

     

    Well, it's starting to get interesting now. On Thursday I noted “... what I think is the first stirrings suggesting a move is nearing”. I couldn't see a direction suggested, but one of the factors suggesting that, volume increase and a wider spread, continues to to suggest it – volume continued to increase. In thousands for the last six days they are 248, 212, 76, 79, 148 and 170. Visually, this makes a “cupping” pattern, which I've mentioned in the past as one of the things that suggest a move may be imminent.

     

    Unfortunately, the traditional TA stuff is not suggesting upward movement at this time. All the oscillators I watch, except the ADX and related, continue their very slow deterioration. From two days ago (Wed.), RSI is down to 47.87 from 51.52, accum/distr is at -28.32 from -11.47 and momentum at 0.9909 from 1.051. Others are behaving similarly, notably the stochastic which shows the signal crossing below the average. One that behaved slightly differently is the MFI, which tried to move up Thursday, but fell lower Friday. So, as I mentioned before, the ADX and related get no respect here from the others.

     

    Although the MACD histogram has started to improve, it's still in the negative territory and not yet moved to where it could suggest a rise – at least it's suggesting a reducing downward bias though. But it would be dicey, IMO, to read “bullishness” into it at this time. It does appear that the longer-term trend of reducing negative readings seems to be still in play.

     

    The only thing I see which says we should move up is the “standard” 20-period Bollinger Band. It's mid-point right now is $0.3376 and a normal scenario is that price has an affinity for that mid-point when it's “far away”. Conversely, my experimental 13-period band has price almost right in the middle, ~$0.3251, with the $0.3260 close Friday. Those experimental ones are rapidly converging, suggesting the “pinch-induced” move should be appearing shortly. Not quite there yet – our spread is $0.0271, which is relatively wide for the “consolidation” action seen, for the most part.

     

    Finishing up on the “traditional TA” side, the “new” faster-rising potential support line I mentioned a while back seems destined to “fail” unless price appreciates in the next day. If it doesn't we can take that line, which rises ~$0.011/week, out of play. That will leave the support line originating back in November, currently ~$0.311 and rising ~$0.01/week, the now very slowly rising 50-day SMA ($0.3141) and the rising lower Bollinger ($0.3121) as our potential supports if a brief (my expectation) down move occurs. Allowing for typical “overshoots”, I would think that somewhere in the mid $0.30 would be our low point before starting the next leg up in our “grind up” scenario.

     

    Keep in mind that in that “starting the next leg up in our grind up scenario” there's a lot of reliance on the behavior within this rising trading channel “rhyming”. The last leg down was followed by a sideways range for ~9 days and the break into the next up-leg occurred with a brief move down, to $0.271 (slightly below the lows of that sideways consolidation), on the same day starting the run up to highs of mid-$0.34 and then $0.38 over seven trading days.

     

    If all this doesn't start to happen in the next couple days, I think we enter medium-term consolidation and end up waiting for our rising support line to come up and meet price, which would take another week or so if price holds steady in the current range. This would be about the same time the 50-day SMA would intersect our price range, plus or minus a day or two, and cross above the 200-day SMA, which is at $0.3208 and falling. We are, so far, holding our trading range above that for the last seven days, not being “dragged” down.

     

    Moving to my experimental charts stuff, volume increased 15% and daily short sales increased 188% over yesterday's values, continuing it's erratic vacillation in the low absolute volume (22.2K) and percentage range, 13.03% today.

     

    We've had other factors that exhibit a behavior similar to that of the trading volume discussed up in the traditional TA area. I think this also suggests a move is nearing.

     

    Hm, I just noticed that daily shorts are doing this too, in thousands: 26.40, 13.50, 11.47, 9.35, 7.70 and 22.21. Anyway ...

     

    Average trade size is “cupping”, with these values over the same period as the volume “cupping”: 5,901, 5,725, 3,778, 3,288, 5,681 and 6,085. These last two readings are in what I think is mid-retail size and we've had the second consecutive day with the number of 10K and larger blocks being substantially above what has been “normal” for our recent “consolidation”. We have moved above the average trade size 10-day average (4,760) and are now in the range seen in the 25, 50 and 100-day averages: 6,004, 6,166 and 6,125 respectively.

     

    The buy percentages are similar: 65.9, 63.3, 47.2, 36.1, 58.9 and 67.1.

     

    Intra-day VWAP is not cooperating though: $0.3256, $0.3266, $0.3266, $0.3228, $0.3302 and $0.3263.

     

    On my experimental original inflection point calculations, the consolidation around the zero-mark continues with the three shorter-term values, 5, 10 and 25-days, all above zero and continuing to become more positive over the last three days. Looking at my later versions, which include other factors in two different ways, they are in a similar positive configuration, but not strengthening as much. This is what was intended for them – remove some of the “volatility” that made me describe the original as “flaky”. My near-term assessment is that all versions are transitioning to signal an upward movement. If this continues for another day or two with the same degree of strengthening, I'll be calling a bullish move indicated.

     

    I hope it doesn't start before I holler it - most of the numbers are there and it's just my caution about relying too much on my experimental stuff that prevents me opening my yap now. Seriously, I want another day or so before I get "convinced".

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    HTL, A good map to support your comments.

     

    Population control is the only answer. I'd prefer we do it via intelligent methods. But that's for another board.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/YMO17d
    9 Feb 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Population control is the only answer".

     

    I'm unsure if that's enough. The problem is more than that. As John has referenced many times, we have large swaths of currently-poor folks that want some of the benefits of economic development. That "TED" presentation about the washing machine exemplifies the problem nicely, I think.

     

    I think long-term we need the OECD countries to become quite aggressive in both reduction of consumption (though improved efficiency?) and more aggressive about reforestation and related, where possible, of the lands that were stripped as the development of the last few centuries took place.

     

    South America, and Brazil specifically, I think are good examples of the problem. How can we deny them the improvement in living standards that we ourselves have enjoyed? But as they improve their standards, they (almost necessarily) must destroy, to some degree, the ecosystem that they currently enjoy and which benefits all of us. The best we can hope for is that the greater available knowledge and technology permits them to be less destructive than "we" were in the past.

     

    If that happens, then more aggressive OECD actions in their own back yards may be enough to compensate and at least hold the status quo. It might be possible as well to reclaim a small percentage of the deserts, but that could be tough if we pick the wrong ones - you can't mess with mother nature. Water could easily become an even greater problem than it is already becoming.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    Good grief! I didn't *mean* to inject the EOD summary here!

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    My apologies!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Agree with all you say here.

     

    The problem is if you don't control the population it's just kicking the can down the road because as John has pointed out, with information technology we ALL want more and that's just not going to happen. Even less probable with more and more people coming without some control mechanisms. I'd much rather have smart population control than the alternatives we've witnessed historically. Not easy but necessary.

     

    PS:

     

    http://bit.ly/W8JNX1
    9 Feb 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Since I'm nowhere near wise enough to come up with a universally acceptable plan, I figure we'll just have to rely on mother nature to handle these problems in her own inimitable way. I just hope I'm not around when Mother Nature decides that the time has come for a population adjustment because she doesn't offer any exemptions.
    9 Feb 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • shaggydude4hire
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Hello, just started reading some of the SA articles and found the prospects for AXPW fascinating. I posted this on Concentrator 205 after everyone left and I was told to throw it up here so here it is:

     

    Powergrid projects of the year:

     

    http://bit.ly/YVnS9Q

     

    Duke Energy's battery installation at the Rankin Substation in Mount Holly, NC is project of the year for integrating renewable energy into the grid. The installation is completed with zebra batteries from FIAMM. The Rankin Substation consists of a 402-kW/282-kWh sodium nickel chloride battery system which is being used to smooth out large minute-by-minute peaks and valleys in electricity production. Would performance by PbC batteries be better than these zebra batteries? If so, the company should reach out to try and have a relationship with a utility, to make a project that could showcase the performance of the PbC. If mgmt believes in the battery, it should believe that a project's success would get Axion on the radar of utilities like Duke Energy, which seem to be taking the shotgun approach with trying different battery technologies.
    8 Feb 2013, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    The sales cycle for stationary energy storage systems is long and particularly difficult for a new technology like the PbC that doesn't have a decade-long track record. Axion is actively pursuing opportunities in the utility industry, but we've not seen any tangible signs of success yet.

     

    If Duke's Mount Holly installation is truly focused on smoothing minute to minute variability, the Zebra seems like an odd choice because it's not a fast battery that likes to charge and discharge quickly. Instead Zebra batteries are most efficient in applications like remote cell towers that run a generator for 8 hours to charge the batteries and then operate on battery power for 16 hours.
    8 Feb 2013, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18032) | Send Message
     
    02/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hour).
    # Trds: 26, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 147700, AvTrSz: 5681
    Min. Pr: 0.3250, Max Pr: 0.3395, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3302
    # Buys, Shares: 15 86955, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3304
    # Sells, Shares: 11 60745, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3299
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.43:1 (58/9% “buys), DlyShts 7700 (5.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.68%

     

    First, I want to note that we saw what I think is the first stirrings suggesting a move is nearing. Through the first 45K of trades and 11:23:33 today we had a 1/100th penny spread - $0.3299 - $0.33. Subsequently the spread widened to $0.0145, 4.46%, with a low of $0.3250 and a high of $0.3395 (but only 600 shares). This is something I mentioned a few days back that I wanted to see to suggest a move is near. If w take the high as an aberration and just look at the high that had some volume, $0.3350, we get a ~3.1% spread, which still is a big enough change from recent behavior to suggest a move is near.

     

    Also notable in this action is that we got a higher low and higher high than yesterday. This is normally bullish, but since we closed well off our high and close to our low, with price falling from the high of $0.3395 at 12:03:39 (only 600 shares too!) to close at $0.3269, below yesterday's close of $0.33, I can't say this suggests bullishness. Add in that the trades below $0.33 at the end of the day ($0.3350 and $0.3369), from 14:45 forward, totaled 53K shares. So there was definite demonstrated weakness into the close.

     

    Since that high was on few shares, I looked to see if the rest of the action suggests anything. Prior to that $0.3395 high the VWAP was $0.3320 on ~75K shares. Subsequent to that trade the VWAP was $0.3282 on ~72K shares. So we did have weakness into the close as price subsequent to that trade went from $0.3349 down to $0.325 and $0.3269 at the close.

     

    On the oscillators I watch, the MFI went almost to overbought, reading ~75.241, bullish. Unfortunately it gets no support except in an early cross of the DI+ above the DI-, with those and the ADX all at low levels where they don't really offer any strong support yet. The MFI is supposed to be a leading indicator though, so maybe it will prove correct. Me? I'm doubtful of its reliability.

     

    The rest of the oscillators I watch all weakened a bit from yesterday. They are all small moves, but are consistent with each other and consistently a reversal from the very short-term moves up they had been trying to make.

     

    So I don't see a bullish move, yet, in these things.

     

    Last, we had some volume come back - unfortunately on a down day. It's not large volume, but it increased 87.2% and that's what counts.

     

    Leaving the traditional stuff behind ...

     

    Our VWAP did move up 2.29%. If that carries more weight than closes, we have some bullishness there. I don't know that it should carry more weight though because most people don't watch VWAP – they watch closing prices and would be more likely, I think, to respond to those. Since it is the response of people we are trying to anticipate, I think assuming little, if any, bullish sentiment would be the wise course here.

     

    The average trade size moved up into what I think is mid-retail size and we saw more trades up around the 10K area than had been common recently. Buy:sell is in normal range, and both daily short and trade volume and are still low.

     

    Something caught my eye that I think bodes well moving forward. I should have expected it since I had been talking “grind up” since mid-November.

     

    If you look at my price chart (or a standard one for that matter), there is a pattern that had not been seen previously since my charts began in February of 2012. We had a couple nice legs up that were not followed by a retreat to below the up-legs' lows. This is a big change in behavior. It's big enough and sustained enough that the descending long-term trend lines on my charts have retreated from the correlation highs of ~82/83 down to the 59/60 range for many days (2 weeks or so?) now. We see instead the down legs after an up leg revert to somewhere above the prior leg's low and settle around a 50% re-trace price and hold strongly. If this is the new pattern, which my “grind up” scenario would suggest, the next sustained move should be to the upside. There might be a small pocket of fearful longs that could dump out (suggested by the weakness mentioned in the price action discussion above) and cause a brief spike down, but it should be quickly followed by a recovery in price.

     

    This suggests far greater upside than downside risk is the scenario now.

     

    Finally, my original experimental inflection point calculations are still in disarray, but now most are consolidating near the 0 line. If this consolidation continues, it will be setting up to possibly signal a move shortly. My later versions, which include factors beyond just buy:sell and trade volume, are doing the same. Direction of likely move isn't discernible yet. I'll be keeping an eye on this.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • UnpredictableFutures
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm...

     

    Like Arlo sings it...

     

    Inch by inch
    Row by row
    9 Feb 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    ...Much better that than drinkin' "that ripple wine, down in the lightnin' bar"
    10 Feb 2013, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Panasonic also makes LABs and lithium ion. Oh my I see some kinks in that AGM armor. Looks like everyone isn't going to follow the BMW and Ford path of disrespecting their customers.

     

    Panasonic Develops 12V Energy Recovery System with Ni-MH Battery for Automobiles

     

    "The 12V Energy Recovery System, which is designed to be connected in parallel with the main lead-acid battery, has the same 12 V voltage as the main battery. Unlike some systems that require a transformer to regulate voltage, depending on the type of batteries used, Panasonic's 12V system uses 10 1.2 V Ni-MH battery cells, eliminating the need for voltage transformation. This helps lower the system's costs and use energy more efficiently."

     

    http://bit.ly/VL97p8
    8 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    No info on costs, but Panasonic's reputation and power in Japan in particular would be very hard to compete against. Might there also be much less "redesign" work for both auto makers and suppliers as compared to a PbC?

     

    I need a bummed button to click :-(
    8 Feb 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Panasonic's reputation as a battery manufacturer has suffered gravely over the last few years. They sold their controlling interest in the world's biggest NiMH battery manufacturer to Toyota because they wanted to pave the way for their purchase of the lithium-ion battery business of Sanyo. Over the last two years they've taken several billion in impairment losses associated with the Sanyo acquisition.

     

    There's no question that NiMH can do the job of carrying hotel loads in stop-start vehicles. Unfortunately, NiMH can't do the job cheaply because NiMH is an expensive chemistry to begin with and it can't do the job at relevant scale because the M is lanthanum, a rare earth metal that's seen incredible price volatility over the last couple years due to global supply constraints.

     

    Potentially competitive products that are more expensive to begin with and can't possibly scale to relevant levels are a distraction, not a threat.
    8 Feb 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I wouldn't get bummed. This is another admission that AGM is not looked upon very favorably by a significant part of the industry for some of the more advanced electrification coming in the not to distant future. Thus we see JCI adding LAB/lithium ion, Exide looking to Maxwell and now this sign. Another sign there is a lower cost energy storage need that needs to be filled in light electrification.
    8 Feb 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Besides, we wouldn't want all those mice to suffer...
    http://bit.ly/14I7ycf
    8 Feb 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9563) | Send Message
     
    Hmm Mds, I'd never heard of that cartoon. Actually in following the battery industry I often find articles from this institution in my quest for battery info.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/xwhimz

     

    As an Axionista I figure it's a sign. ;)
    8 Feb 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    I heard that Panasonic is just barely solvent and the outlook isn't encouraging. Just repeating rumor from ??

     

    Other info?
    8 Feb 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    Panasonic has lost half its stockholders' equity over the last five years but it still has something on the order of $21 billion, which means it won't be in the poor house any time soon.
    8 Feb 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of batteries and corporate problems in the Li Ion sphere.
    Sony wants to sell it's battery business.

     

    Sony in talks for lithium-ion battery business integration
    The Yomiuri Shimbun
    Sony Corp.'s troubled lithium-ion battery business may be integrated with a joint venture of Nissan Motor Co. and NEC Corp., under an initiative of a state-backed investment fund, sources said.
    The lithium-ion battery is considered a homespun technology in Japan, as Sony commercialized the first battery of its kind in 1991. But overseas rivals have recently surpassed Japanese makers in terms of their share of the market for compact lithium-ion batteries used in personal computers and other products.
    As Taiwan and Chinese makers have shown an interest in investing in Sony's lithium-ion business, the investment fund Innovation Network Corporation of Japan (INCJ) plans to reorganize the domestic industry. The fund intends to ensure technical expertise is retained domestically, according to the sources.
    Currently, INCJ is favorably considering an integration between Sony's subsidiary for its lithium-ion business and a battery firm established by a joint venture of Nissan and NEC, the sources said.
    INCJ has been mediating talks between Sony Energy Devices Corp. and Nissan and NEC's Automotive Energy Supply Corp., in hope of completing the integration by the end of fiscal 2013.
    The plan currently under discussion entails Sony selling most of its shares to the joint venture, with INCJ also putting in capital for the integration, the sources said. They added that the talks are now at a stage in which details such as the selling price for shares are being negotiated.
    If negotiations fail, INCJ will likely seek other domestic companies to partner with Sony's subsidiary, the sources said.
    Additionally, Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which has been negotiating with struggling Sharp Corp. over capital investment, and China's automaker BYD Co. are said to be interested in Sony's battery subsidiary. INCJ therefore plans to accelerate the domestic reorganization of the industry, according to the sources.

     

    http://bit.ly/UM2RgK

     

    Reorganize the industry.
    There have been suggestions of a govt. backing/control of it.
    8 Feb 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30231) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Feb 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
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    Ah I'd forgotten.
    8 Feb 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
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    Thanks JP.
    9 Feb 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
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    Redox Redux:

     

    The German battery that could store the sun and wind
    http://bit.ly/YK32Xo#

     

    Note embedded link to:
    Joint Research Project tubulAir±

     

    http://bit.ly/12z6UiB

     

    Principles of Redox Flow Batteries (since 1973!)
    http://bit.ly/VJarng
    8 Feb 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    WTB: The German research group doing the Vanadium redox flow battery new development effectively admitted that the Van-redox, as presently implemented, is not cost effective. That was my thought, but it's nice to see someone else agree.

     

    So that's another candidate not in the running against the PbC. At least not for power grid short term stability control.
    9 Feb 2013, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    California's Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) roadmap.

     

    http://bit.ly/XfSUpV

     

    By 2015
    •• The state’s major metropolitan areas will be able to accommodate ZEVs through infrastructure plans and streamlined permitting
    •• Private investment and manufacturing in the ZEV sector will be growing
    •• The state’s academic and research institutions will contribute to ZEV market
    expansion by building understanding of how ZEVs are used

     

    By 2020
    •• The state’s ZEV infrastructure will be able to support up to 1 million vehicles
    •• The costs of ZEVs will be competitive with conventional combustion vehicles
    •• ZEVs will be accessible to mainstream consumers
    •• There will be widespread use of ZEVs for public transportation and freight transport

     

    By 2025
    •• Over 1.5 million ZEVs will be on California roadways and their market share will be expanding
    •• Californians will have easy access to ZEV infrastructure
    •• The ZEV industry will be a strong and sustainable part of California’s economy
    •• California’s clean, efficient ZEVs will annually displace at least 1.5 billion gallons of petroleum fuels

     

    Here is an easier to read article that seems pretty good. (Still reading)
    http://bit.ly/VJTEjQ
    8 Feb 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    The DOE's
    EV everywhere Grand plan.

     

    If it been linked before I must have missed it my apologies

     

    Here are some points from the article.

     

    Technical targets in the Blueprint fall into four areas: battery R&D; electric drive system R&D; vehicle lightweighting; and advanced climate control technologies. Some specific goals for 2022 include:

     

    Cutting battery costs from their current $500/kWh to $125/kWh

     

    Eliminating almost 30% of vehicle weight through lightweighting

     

    Reducing the cost of electric drive systems from $30/kW to $8/kW

     

    The targets are “stretch goals” established with consultation with stakeholders across the industry.

     

    here's the whole enchilada.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/VJVvVP
    8 Feb 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
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    It's fine to aim to reduce the cost of a battery from $500 to $125/Kwh but if it doesn't do the job it's still useless.
    9 Feb 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like