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  • No 1
    27 Feb 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Aqui estoy!!!!! (Here I am)


    I am the first.


    Have a good day-Carlos
    27 Feb 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Lesson for being #1: post first, edit later =)
    27 Feb 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, Ready, fire, aim.......move target quick?
    27 Feb 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Poul:


    You beat me by a head.


    Have a nice day-Carlos
    27 Feb 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Carlos: LoL! Lesson # 2 - read first and gloat later! ;-))


    27 Feb 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • H.T. Love:


    Lesson #3: You know my problem: It takes me a lot of typing.


    Have a good night.-Carlos
    27 Feb 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Quick hint $1. Next time type your name and hit reply. Then you can hit the edit link and add text at your leisure while retaining the #1 spot.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • I'll remember that.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • In the FWIW department, yesterday's 5-day moving average volume of 72,500 shares was the lowest since November 2011 when the five day volume hit 64,500 shares. Between the extremely low trading volume and the continued low FINRA short selling activity I'm convinced that the three-year supply-side glut is over and bottom feeders won't have much success on a go-forward basis.
    27 Feb 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Good catch, JP.


    But I believe we're going to see a cap raise with around 40,000,000 new shares, being just a week or mere weeks away, which will introduce a whole new round of flipping. No way to know for sure, but I would expect 50% of those new shares will be flipped.
    27 Feb 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,


    Yup - kind of a scary thought, but a year's worth of financing doesn't come cheap when you're on the ropes a bit.


    I'm hoping it's a month or so away - but it could be before the daylight savings change. The fear today isn't the institutions but rather Axionistas who have gobbled more then they care for. Trying to unload a large postion now wouldn't be easy or fun.


    When the new shares come into the equation I hope they are mostly rock solid long term holders. Otherwise 30-40M shares will take a long time to churn since we're back to doing 4M shares a months it seems (and there's the whole double counting issue).
    27 Feb 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • I can't predict when the financing will happen or who the investors will be, but I don't think anybody can safely assume that there will be significant new supply at attractive prices.


    If management is able to "raise additional funds ... from sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies" we could see a situation where there is no flipping.


    Financial investors are very attuned to supply and demand issues and if a financial investor believes the rest of the stockholder base is stable, the incentive to flip out for pennies instead of letting the stock run is much lower than it would be in a competitive market where there were lots of willing sellers at a low price.


    I know all too well what the history has been over the last three years, but the underlying dynamic has changed because the big uglies are out of stock and the only possible sources of supply on a go forward basis are the Axionistas and maybe the new buyers.
    27 Feb 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Hoping you're right. A significant difference this time versus last cap raise is that a year has passed, and we "should" be entering into a new, far more positive news cycle.
    27 Feb 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • It's interesting because the fear of a capital raise last time was nowhere near what it is this time. IMO


    It's going to be interesting to see the reaction because I think more people have positioned themselves looking for a history repeat.


    Edit: I should say the fear of the implications of a capital raise. That there will be one is obvious.


    I still vote for a little debit if good things in the news are close to a given in 6 months or so. Yes, I know we don't all agree on this point.
    27 Feb 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Axionistas started obsessing about the price of the upcoming capital raise about a week after the last offering closed. In my opinion, that fear has been the single biggest negative influence on the stock price over the last year.


    Unfortunately, obsessing over the possibility that the next round might go off at a lower price has kept stockholders from responding normally to business developments and set the stage for the outcome they feared most.
    27 Feb 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • 40 mil. new shares is certainly a possibility, but I don't expect the capital raise to entail that many new shares. And, I'm inclined to think the raise will come end-March to early April.


    Pure speculative inference on my part, but I think January was more likely cash flow positive than not. IMO issue of a patent recently to NSC for an OTR battery powered locomotive significantly raised probability that PbCs for such a unit have been ordered, and perhaps delivered, under a second amendment of NSC's 2012 purchase order or a new P.O. subject to NDA.


    Return of batteries to Axion by Combatec in Germany could strongly affect the capital raise, either positively or negatively. Positively if BMW decides to continue development of vehicles equipped with PbCs. Negatively if BMW decides the PbC has no place in its future plans. Only the latter would necessarily require a public disclosure by Axion IMO as it would mark significant change from status quo business outlook. Decision for a production model fleet test might not be announced due to NDA.


    Additionally, passage of more time before the next raise elevates probability of developments in trucking applications (motive power and APUs), railroad applications other than NSC, and auto OEMs other than BMW.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Bazooka, I have always thought that axionistas could/will be their own worst enemy. IF they sell, it will get nasty quick or limit upside moves.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • JP, any chance Axion made enough additional revenue in Q4 and Q1 to not need to raise before 3-31-13?
    27 Feb 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Last year, we heard expectations of a 300% YoY increase in revenues, which ended up, IIRC, around 65%.


    Last year, well the end of 2011, when the PowerCube was unveiled, we all expected some Cube sales by now. Many Axionistas own far more shares in value than the revenues from the miniscule naval order. The only thing I can come up with is that the PowerCube is not as price competitive as we all thought.


    Last year, we thought that Rosewater would be going gangbusters with the UL approval. That hasn't happened, either.


    Last year, we all thought fleet testing with BMW would occur right around now, and yet there's no word, except the return of PbCs from Comatec, which would not be public domain knowledge if it were not for iindelco's sleuthing. Fingers still crossed this occurs before the cap raise. But again, we come back to being price competitive, with stop/start seeming to cost around $300, and we know that a PbC is around $400 plus. (Yes, we know the AGM solution doesn't work. But, it does...even if only for a few months.)


    Last year, we thought we were done with the big uglies selling, but then BlackRock and Manatuck Hill sold, too. And Special Situations seems to have no clue as to whether they are in, or out. The good is that it appears the deep pockets are gone, but the bad thing is that no deep pockets have move in. AXPW is going nowhere until some entity decides to buy millions of shares. I'm hoping that entity is in the next cap raise, and in long. But it surely doesn't sound that way with TG saying he was going back to the same folks to raise capital as last year, which means it's likely flippers will again be amongst them.


    Last year, we thought for sure that Norfolk was going to roll out the yard switcher...we're still waiting.


    Last year, we heard about "dozens of proposals." Why have none come to fruition?


    Yes, there's been some positive news at a rate of a drip per quarter.


    Compound all of this by how the S&P is up 276 points since last June, and it makes for a brew of increasing distaste.


    Overall, I'm still hell bent positive, but I need to see some news.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Paraphrasing Axion's last 10-Q, they said they expect to have adequate liquidity and capital resources through 3/31/2013 (which means anything from a day after that to two months and 29 days after that). That was before the NS delivery, which at $1/2 million would likely add another couple weeks, if desired. So, IMO they don't have to raise more cash until at least mid-April. Perhaps a lot longer, given how good the company is at cost control.


    There is a reason they have not yet done a deal yet, two months into 2013 already. IMO all roads lead to waiting for some major good news/development first, to boost the price and/or get a strategic deal.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I: The longer Axion waits to raise money, the less leverage they have with new or returning investors...if there is no news. Fully expect the cap raise to occur before March 31, so that Axion can go into the next CC without having to say those two fearsome words: going concern.


    Would be great fun to sit at the rail of this poker game.
    27 Feb 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stopped on your "beach" and eviscerated on our own swords. Not a great outcome after such a long long battle with such overwhelming odds. The historians will all be wondering why we are facing towards green pastures with "big ugly" carcasses to our backs ...dead. :(


    I can hear the tour guide as he makes a stop with the tour bus stating, "And here is the final battle ground of the great lead/carbon - AGM w/additives battle, fought during the front end of the 21st century. Had the Axionista's only pushed forward with one last thrust my engine would have turned off while I delivered this epic tale. Unfortunately my negative electrode is coated with large sulfur crystals delivering yet another occurrence of abysmal "charge acceptance". Yes folks, we're "Idling" on hallowed ground but we're not the first!"
    27 Feb 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • ...but it was only supposed to be a three-hour tour!


    27 Feb 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, yeah, would be really interesting to be a fly on the wall for the raise negotiations, and for the BMW discussions, for that matter.


    At least we have The Negotiator on our side. I'm assuming everything he's doing regarding the cap raise is for a conscious reason. Why wait? ISTM, either, 1) his hand really blows, so why not?, but a bird in the hand usually wins in that case, or 2) he thinks or knows his hand will improve a lot, soon, or 3) it's just the mechanics of a deal already agreed to.


    I'd SO like a strategic investor, for so many reasons, including watching anyone who recently sold, hoping to get in the new deal, chase to get back in.
    27 Feb 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Kent G> Axion finished Q3 with $6.8 million of working capital. The figure was $8.9 at the end of Q2 and $10.6 at the end of Q1. Including the February raise, it was $12.9 at the end of 2011. For estimating purposes, it seems reasonable to say Axion runs through about $2 million a quarter.


    If I was trying to peg a zero date, it would be pretty close to June 30, assuming that management didn't do anything to trim fat.


    If we set the wayback machine to September 2009, which was a truly scary time for me, Axion's working capital was $285,000.


    The best reason to finish a financing before March 30th would be to avoid a 'going concern' paragraph in the auditor's report, but that's the only compelling reason. I don't know whether accounting standards have changed since I last focused on the issue, but there was a time when auditors would re-issue reports without going concern language once a financing risk was resolved.


    Frankly I'm at a point where I'd rather just see it over and done with because I believe people have spent way to much time obsessing over the risk that somebody else might buy stock for a few cents less than their average price.


    The dynamic we had in 2009 where a broke company raised $26 million in one fell swoop does not exist this year. The dynamic we had in 2012 where the price doubled in 30 days and the offering price went off in the middle does not exist this year. The lessons of history can be very important, but only when the facts are reasonably similar and I don't think that's the case this year.


    I also think there's a reasonable chance that Axion will be able to bring in a different class of investor this time around.
    27 Feb 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, that sounds good but I think any placement would be nearly lined up by now so I doubt Axion can wait on good news to get a better pps over the next 60 days. I'd think as soon as pps rise then the placement holders will push for a close. This feels like the pps bottomed and thus placement holders will likely use the low volume/liquidty of late to ask for a discount from current levels.


    Also any news/diligence (NS, BMW) that was provided to the placement agents has likely already been factored in to the terms. The only "saving grace" would be if we some how landed a strategic partner in a related industry and then the liquidity issue would be moot and the conditions more generouse since they'd see Axion as much more than just an equity investment.
    27 Feb 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • I too have thought about the "crowded theatre" effect.
    27 Feb 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • After reading your above post I wouldn't have expected the last line; but I appreciate the candor =)


    "Overall, I'm still hell bent positive, but I need to see some news."
    27 Feb 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • JP,respectfully speaking, in what way do you think Axionistas "fear" negatively affects price? To me it seems last year's volume was decent and who else was absorbing the "big uglies" supply but Axionistas?


    I only like to talk about the raise because we know a raise is coming in weeks (maybe months) and it indeed does affect our ownership percentages. Agreed, if you think the low liquidity of late is a "fear" effect then, yes, that might be part of the current problem.


    As for Axionistas overall, I think we have supported price and not hurt it - I'd think without this group the stock would be crushed. My read on things is that those who still post on semi-regualr basis must still be "in" the stock. As for those who might "sell" based on what they read, I'd specualte only yourself could have that kind of effect on what is largely a highly educated stockholder base that has formed in these concentrators.
    27 Feb 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • The difference between the pros and retail investors is that pros pay close attention and push their advantage when things turn in their favor. They don't wait for the bid fairy to raise the price.


    if the Axionistas were a quarter as ruthless as any self respecting hedge fund manager the "Blue horseshoe loves Anacott Steel" drums would be beating 24/7 and the marauders who are trying to keep the price down by feeding shares into a low volume market would get their heads handed to them.


    Since the Axionistas either don't understand their strength or are unwilling to average up a penny or two, the price languishes and sets up a dynamic where the forces of darkness can take another bite out of our hides.


    A company like Tesla that manages its stock would be pulling out all the stops right now to mobilize the base and take the price to a level that would ensure better terms for a follow on deal. Since Axion doesn't have that kind of influence over the base, it has to come from the grassroots or it won't come at all.


    The Axionistas bought very smart over the last three years, but nobody is being smart about protecting their company from marauders who want to buy on the cheap at the eleventh hour.
    27 Feb 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • it's been my thoughts all along.
    27 Feb 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • You can bet the deal is already cut. Just waiting to be announced and executed.
    Go back a year and read how that was done. Without a partner this will be similar.
    27 Feb 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Your statement rings true for those who are still filling in their positions. I wish I was still building my core at these levels. Yes, hand over fist buying here might indeed set someone up for a triple even if the placement comes in a nickel or two lower. If you saying were saving nickels but missing out on quarters than you're likely right. I guess I'm afraid of the "Anacott Steel" type murmurs now cause the few I pointed in this direction bought in over 50 cents and now there is a bit of tension whenever we speak about Axion. I'm sure anyone who mentioned this to others knows what I mean, especially if they beat the drum in late 2011 or early 2012.
    27 Feb 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    There is another reality, at least for some of us, and that is the fact that many of us Axionistas have spent all of our dry powder buying up all the stock from the big uglies over the last two years. So while many of us would love to buy more to push the stock price up, we just don't have the money...we're already "all in". So until Axion can generate enough sales or enough news to get more of those fence post sitters to buy in, the stock price sits. IMHO.
    27 Feb 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • zooooks: Ever here of the short story author, O'Henry? His stories seemed to always end with a witty surprise.


    Hoping this chapter of Axion does, too.
    28 Feb 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • So okay, maybe we're a little tangled up in blue...
    But perhaps something else again is blowin in the wind:


    "I haven't known peace and quiet for so long I can't remember what it's like,


    There's a lone soldier on the cross, smoke pourin' out of a boxcar door,


    You didn't know it, you didn't think it could be done, in the final end he won the wars


    After losin' every battle."


    Oh Mercy...

    28 Feb 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • I must say you make your point Maya way more eloquently than I could. Very well put ! I also agree with Labtech that (I can only speak for myself) there is little money in the kitty to pick up more shares, and because of Maya's comments, frankly why would you want to right now ?


    I think I understand the point John is making, but I respectfully disagree that the current shareholders are solely guilty of dropping the ball in supporting Axion. I do agree there seems to have been a lot of penny pinching going on, and that certainly hasn't helped, but at the end of the day the company and their actions/inactions are responsible for promoting the product and the stock price.


    What has really happened in the last 12 months to justify us bidding up the stock ? The base of support is so tiny that it needs more than just us retail investors to drive the stock to where we all would like to see it
    28 Feb 2013, 01:33 AM Reply Like
  • While likely most of us here are already way overweight, our risk appetite will dramatically change upon strategic financing news or fleet testing news. All I can say is, it'll be a rush to buy at market open, and the only way to beat the crowd is to stick your neck out and buy beforehand. Personally, I'm on the west coast and don't want to wake up early each day to check the news. In some ways I'm pleased with the delay - at least something is happening. If you are tired of waiting for the financing news to pass, then just buy now. Penny wise and pound foolish?
    28 Feb 2013, 02:01 AM Reply Like
  • Rambo: I'll answer your comment thusly: If Axion lands BMW for fleet testing before the pre-cap raise, those who have sold shares pre-cap raise, are screwed. Further, Axion Power has some other serious hot irons in the fire. Pre-cap raise, post cap-raise, either or, just one hot iron will draw in both long term and hot money.


    The rest of your comment, every other point, is emotional, to the point of being contrived.


    Adding to that, and I except this is the way you will always be, whatever ID you use, you have been tormenting, bombarding lots of very keen folks for years here on SA.


    Amazes me you haven't been attacking Apple.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:22 AM Reply Like
  • Beautiful Iindelco!


    28 Feb 2013, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • The last thing I want to do is sound critical after three years of watching the Axionistas heroically take out one machine gun nest after another. After all the determination I've seen, I don't understand how anybody would think it sensible to dig in 1/4 mile from the city gates because of a couple snipers.


    I read commenters like Johnny Rambo complaining that it's the company's responsibility to promote its stock and run an effective PR campaign. The fact is Axion has never promoted its stock and there's no reason to believe it will start any time soon. –
    28 Feb 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Maya, better O'Henry than Flannery O'Connor
    28 Feb 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech: "spent all of our dry powder buying up all the stock from the big uglies over the last two years. So while many of us would love to buy more to push the stock price up, we just don't have the money...we're already "all in".


    Absolutely spot-on in many cases I think.


    In my own case, some may recall I sold some *small* trading blocks at ... $0.329(?) and $0.346(?). I was absolutely destitute, powder-wise, at the time and becoming more aware of the opportunity cost.


    I used those funds to buy and sell some (NVAX) and various puts and calls to rake in a *small* percentage gain. Because of that I had powder ready when price dropped to the current levels.


    Now, I had bought into John's suggestion that absolute bottom-feeding might be self-defeating. So I set my targets to buy when it appeared that a rise was on the horizon and I would buy at $0.30.


    Got back almost all my trading blocks now - still awaiting a set of puts to payoff or take a small loss - at a decent improvement in price.


    If things work out well, I'll be longer AXPW than before, by a noticeable percentage, at a "decent" price.


    Here's something I just thought of (I wish it had been part of a plan, but it wasn't) that's an additional consideration, I think, to John's thoughts.


    When the tide against you is *powerful* and you have little fuel to turn against it and get beyond the large approaching waves, it may be a better strategic decision to "go with the flow", at a slightly oblique course, so as to avoid being dashed upon the rocks, and then make your turn when the tide is less powerful and the waves are smaller.


    BW and others have made this decision - smartly IMO - and much sooner than I.


    Although I'm certain that John is correct about the "big uglies" being out, supported by the data I track on my charts, there has still been enough selling "tide", from whomever, to suggest a strategic "go with the flow" was a good decision.


    In effect, this is what I did, although I wasn't smart enough at the time to recognize that's what I was doing - I was just responding to the need to reduce opportunity cost, with the plan of bringing any profits (fuel) back to the effort.


    A self-critique would tell me I waited much too long and was way over-invested by the time I did these small things.


    It's part of my learning curve and I'll likely wait too long again in the future, but hopefully not so long as this time.


    28 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Retail investors are almost always like leaves that get swept down river by the current and have no power to resist the flow or change its direction. Every once in a great while a dynamic emerges like we now have in Axion where the leaves are so numerous that they can dictate the flow and control its direction, but they can't do so until they realize how incredibly strong they are collectively.


    The active participants in these Concentrators sometimes feel like the 200 followers is all there is. I'll bet dollars to donuts that the real mass of Axion's retail base is 20 times the apparent mass. The reason is simple. Keeping up with this conversation stream is a huge amount of work and investors who haven't accumulated outsized positions in the stock can't afford to devote the time. I'm certain there's an 80/20 rule at work because there's always an 80/20 rule at work, but the collective strength is massive and so is the collective dry powder.


    Some are most certainly tapped. Most are sitting on the sidelines waiting for *something good to happen* because they feel helpless and afraid. When the base finally says "this is our company and we're not going to let the marauders pillage for pennies" things will change.
    28 Feb 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • JP a few years ago with 80 million shares out I can see your point.


    Today or in the near future 200 million shares out, I don't think so. 200-2000 shareholders can't do much until news hits, then it could make a big difference. The big uglies have to come back though to create the demand.


    Otherwise, I see many shares that will be sold into rallies to lighten the overweight situation for many....after that who knows?
    28 Feb 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • As I said, I'll bet dollars to donuts that the base is about twice your maximum estimate. At this moment in time there are only 113 million shares out and until more shares are sold you're making up things to be afraid of unless you have a far better backchannel than I do.


    History shows that Axion's base is incredibly stable and disinclined to sell into rallies. In 2010, FINRA shorts were 27.9% of total trading volume. In 2011 FINRA shorts were 38.2% of total trading volume and in 2012, the number fell back to 26.7%, but we had flippers from the February placement in there pounding out shares too.


    Today we face a situation where there are no big uglies, it looks like most of the February stock has found new homes and while there's no guarantee that the buyers of the next round won't engage in some flipping, it's not a foregone conclusion.


    The base bought Axion over three dreadful years because they saw a solid opportunity for a multi-bag upside. Nobody saw Axion as a trading stock that they'd flip in and out of for pennies whenever it rallied. Unless you can point to a fundamental reason why these patient long term buyers would suddenly morph into manic traders, there's no reason to believe they'll be selling willy-nilly into rallies.


    The more likely outcome is that they'll be buying into rallies when they realize they're not as overweight as they thought.
    28 Feb 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • 48, (echo) ... A three-hour tour......


    28 Feb 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • JP :
    "Today we face a situation where there are no big uglies, it looks like most of the February stock has found new homes and while there's no guarantee that the buyers of the next round won't engage in some flipping, it's not a foregone conclusion."


    Earlier your statement "axionistas are to blame....for bottom fishing and some flipping and NOT buying to support the price" is what started this conversation to begin with.
    You know that without a partner or loan, AXPW has to float shares to operate another year, and more to build out production lines. There are 200 million approved and most here expect they will be used at some point....If your back channels tell a different story please share...
    28 Feb 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • You are misstating what I said. I blame nobody, but find it amazing that the Axionistas charged the machine guns for three years and after clearing the battlefield decided it was a good time to halt the advance.


    By sitting on the sidelines, the stockholder base is inadvertently putting their management team in a difficult position when the time comes to negotiate terms for the next round. It's easier for new investors to get comfortable with gently rising prices than prices that are climbing too rapidly or wallowing. It's also easier for new investors to get comfortable with stable trading volumes than "by appointment" volumes. Whenever new investors can point to something as a market weakness, it becomes a bargaining chip for them.


    The 2009 offering went off at a big discount because the four lead investors each bought the equivalent of two full years of historical trading volume. The new investors couldn't get comfortable with their potential liquidity and the company suffered as a result.


    The 2012 offering was negotiated in a time of extraordinary volatility where the price moved 100% in a month. The final negotiated price was a 40% discount from the high, but it was also a 40% premium from the low. The new investors couldn't get comfortable with price stability and the company suffered as a result.


    It will be very hard for new investors to argue for a big discount because the 10-, 20-, 50- 100- and 200-day VWMAs are all bunched together at about $0.30. About the only thing the new investors will have to complain about is the extraordinarily low volume over the last month. Whether we understand it or not the stockholder base is giving the new investors, whoever they may be, weapons to use against management.


    Axion intends to sell shares to finance additional operations. A loan is not a reasonable possibility. Management has been working for months to arrange financing "from sources that are in alignment with our business objectives and strategies." There's a chance that management won't succeed and they'll have to fall back on Plan B. There's also a chance that they will succeed.


    Until somebody has some kind of reliable information all of the speculation about how many shares will be issued, when they'll be issued and what the terms will be is unadulterated nonsense.
    28 Feb 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • "AXPW has to float shares to operate another year, ...."


    That is the most probable course, but not the only one. It is possible Axion can sell enough PbCs to cover operating costs with any capital raise used to expand capacity.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Oliver Vallee, an analyst out of Paris that I've come to line and respect reported the following this morning.


    "Germany shelves PV storage incentive program to contain electricity price increases in context of upcoming election:


    According to PV magazine, which refers to a spokesman for the German Federal Environment Ministry, the PV storage support program (see February 13th Newsletter) has been put on hold. It was planned that the program would be launched on May 1st; a framework had already recently been disclosed with a flyer by the government owned bank KfW.


    The delay is blamed on funding issues. The PV storage incentive program was supposed to be funded by the “Energy and Climate Fund” which is financed through the auctioning of CO2 emission allowances. However, the fund’s revenues are way below expectation as demand and prices for CO2 certificates are subdued.


    Natureo’s take: The program was to provide cheap financing and investment grants of up to 30% for energy storage attached to solar installations and could have powerfully jumpstarted the residential and commercial PV storage market, benefitting battery makers such as SAFT, Leclanché, EnerSys and Exide. On the basis of initial comments of a subsidy capped at €50m, this would have led to a $166m battery market (later comments had no cap at all). Unfortunately this market seems to have disappeared for the moment as battery storage for solar makes no financial sense without such a subsidy. Our analysis suggests that PV with storage can be economically viable for installations made from 2014/15 if battery costs continue to fall and then only in Germany where retail electricity rates are very high (€0.28/KWh as compared to half that in other areas of Europe).


    Lack of funding is probably not the true reason for putting the incentive program on hold. In the last two weeks, the German environmental minister has initiated a campaign to contain the ongoing residential electricity price increase which is largely due to Germany’s shift towards expensive green energy. The government aims at temporarily freezing the so called EEG levy which has been the main driver of private household’s climbing electricity bills in the last three years (the EEG levy jumped from €0.0359/kWh in 2012 to €0.0528/kWh this year). The issue has a highly political dimension as Germany will hold federal governmental elections in September. Since the electricity price containment measures under discussion include cuts to existing renewable energy subsidies the launch of a new incentive scheme would probably not be considered politically appropriate."
    27 Feb 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • A cloudy German winter may add to their mood.


    ".. it has been the darkest winter in more than four decades. Less than an average of 100 hours of sunshine have been recorded so far over the course of the meteorological winter...
    The winter average is an already measly 160 hours of sun..."

    28 Feb 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121,


    Interesting story. Though I found the story on US oil and gas reserves (at the bottom of the linked page) to be even more interesting.

    28 Feb 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Where shall we locate the solar panels Fräulein Merkel? Over here in the Black Forest looks like a good place. And don't ask again, It's not physics nor rocket science!
    28 Feb 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech: A good read. Thanks!


    28 Feb 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, I found this interesting. Thought you might as well and given your comments about the oak trees at your new humble abode I suspect you already know this. But there are a couple points I found interesting. Especially the part about "Hot Spots" concerning signal uniformity over solar panels.


    Green vs. green: Trees cut down to make way for solar

    28 Feb 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • >LabTech. Thanks for mentioning this. Being into global geopolitical stuff, I also found it to be an excellent article.
    28 Feb 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    Interesting read. I can guarantee you that the trees around my house save me "far" more than 5% on my electric bill during the Summer months (I pay only about 25% more on my electric bill for my current house than I did for my old house that was half the square footage). And since I live in NC, those savings can be substantial. Plus, I use the leaves for mulch in my organic vegetable garden and as carbon for my compost bin. So those are added savings as well.
    I would want to see a breakdown in how much energy the solar panels will generate vs how much extra electricity will be required to cool the homes.
    28 Feb 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT, Since there is usually an air gap between solar panels and the roof mount, the panels also provide shade to the roof, much the same as a tree. So any shade lost to make room for solar panels should be a wash.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • I'm in the same boat, my trees reduce my cooling needs greatly. If I ever do solar it will be a stand alone installation away from my house.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Nogoodslacker,
    I'm not sure of that. The solar panels might shade the roof in the areas they are mounted, but the trees shade the entire roof, plus the sides of the house and the ground nearby, to prevent radiant heat. So the surface area shielded by the trees is much greater. At least in my case.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • NGS, Not so sure about that. A roof, if designed properly (air flow), should work well without a "double layer" on top. I think more of the heat introduced to the house is through windows and walls. All depends on the house design though.


    Edit Oops, Just saw LabTech's response. I agree with LabTech.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • NGS: The radiant heat LabTech mentions is important I think. The shading from panels helps, not not near as much as the trees, which shade does not restrict any cooling air flow and adds no radiant heat.


    1 Mar 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • The air gap left between a solar installation and one's roof is primarily there to make ease of installation and maintenance, but secondarily to avoid the heat captured by the cells melting the roof. They get very HOT upon occasion.


    Also, unlike trees, solar cells do not "breath" or otherwise participate in the cooling effect created in the normal process of large living plants going through their cycle.
    1 Mar 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • I always wondered about solar cells with a cooling loop on the back, which would keep the cells cool and provide some domestic water heating.
    2 Mar 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Jrp3
    There is such a product.
    I haven't seen it for a while, 2 years? (Haven't looked)
    I think they were claiming 60% efficiency when added together.
    Seemed like a good idea with a little planning could supplement heat when Its cool. In the summer could warm pools in the north as well.
    2 Mar 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3


    Cogenra Solar has a unique hybrid solar hot water-solar electricity concept.
    2 Mar 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Re posted from the tail end of APC 211.


    I found this interesting. Must have missed it the first time around.



    Ed Buiel, is this idea about lead dioxide conductivity accurate in your knowledge?
    27 Feb 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Off track a little bit but still possibly of interest. Today I heard T. Boone Pickens speak at the Dallas Rotary Club. I assume most are aware of the Pickens Plan which has evolved towards a focus on shifting heavy trucks from diesel to natural gas.


    He is trying to encourage government action to speed up this transition which he thinks will happen anyway. He pointed to 1972 when the industry transitioned from gasoline to diesel to take advantage of cheaper fuel. I think he said that transition took five years.


    He excoriated the government for its focus on electric vehicles and said: "You can't move an 18 wheeler with a battery." Pickens said that there are only two kinds of fuel that can drive a truck: "Ours" (US/Canadian gas and oil) and "theirs" (oil from OPEC and specifically our "enemy" Saudi Arabia).


    He advocated unsuccessfully (Republicans opposed) for a bill in the US Senate that would use the tax system to provide what would in effect be loans to operators to cover the cost of converting trucks to natural gas.


    He was a pretty entertaining speaker and was well received by the hometown audience.
    27 Feb 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • 02/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 12329, Vol 132545, AvTrSz: 4734
    Min. Pr: 0.2926, Max Pr: 0.3109, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3015
    # Buys, Shares: 13 61045, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3067
    # Sells, Shares: 15 71500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2970
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.17 (46.1%), DlyShts 20429 (15.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.57%


    FYI: there was one trade of 9K that was classified as a “sell” due to the timing of new bids coming in the same second the trade executed against the ask at the time. From talking with FINRA about certain discrepancies in the past I have learned that it's possible for trades to have time stamps that are off by fractions of a second to over several seconds, causing the trade to appear out of order. I think that's what happened here. Anyway, if that trade was properly classified the buy:sell would be 1.12:1, 52.8%.


    Very interesting day! To me it was the change in behavior that is most significant.


    We had our “late-day weakness” come early, as we saw our intra-day low hit again (first was 3 minutes past the open) in a $0.29xx selling spree that began at 12:58:32, about 45 minutes after I made my second block of purchases for the day @ $0.30, and ended at 13:10:04. VWAP was $0.2960 on 40.5K shares, 30.56% of the day's volume.


    Then trading silence ... for an hour and 3/4. But something magical was happening! The ... bids ... were ... slowly ... creeping ... upward! It was strange, but when I saw the $0.29xx flush occur, I thought “That takes out the sellers at this level”. I don't know why, but that's what I thought. Anyway, bids went from the standing $0.2926 to $0.293, $0.295, $0.30, $0.3005, $0.301, $0.3015, $0.302, $0.3025, $0.305, $0.3055, $0.3056, $0.3075 and $0.31, where it ended the day. Yes, there were some trades up and down and bids moved up and down a bit, but it was a lollapalooza(sp?) episode of jostling at the ticket window, comparatively. So, for us, saying “strength into the close” would be understatement. We were up as much as 6.25% briefly today. Closed up 5.95%. On to traditional TA stuff ...


    Got a higher high and low, first in a while. Our high matched the highs seen at the start of this sideways leg on 2/15. Price continues to depart upward from my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger and from the potential descending support I mentioned yesterday.


    Every oscillator I watch, except the ADX-related, improved substantially and we had rising, albeit not great, volume on this up move. So we can risk giving some credence to this move up. Stochastic left oversold and is still above its average, Williams %R neared its top at -3.93, momentum jumped to 1.03 from yesterday's 0.914, MFI exited oversold but is still low at ~22.1, and RSI moved to just above neutral at ~51.


    The 50-day slightly rising SMA, $0.3158, is above the slightly falling 200-day SMA, $0.3136. The 50-day will continue to rise, barring a severe price retrace, and will slowly begin to accelerate over the next 2.5 weeks. Again, barring a retrace. The spread between the 200 and 50 will continue to widen for an extended time.


    We have a potential resistance, based on a descending trend line tracking the high of 1/11 to the high of 2/13, with some additional touches right after 1/11 and on 2/11. It's currently ~$0.3185 and drops ~2/10ths of a cent each day. With the 50-day above the 200-day SMA and today's action (possibly) suggesting that sellers at this level are being outweighed by buyers, it may not present any resistance at all. We'll see – I'm betting not.


    We have some prior resistance that could appear at “churn” points, in the $0.32-$0.33 area. I'm thinking $0.33 more likely, based on frequency seen.


    On 2/14, I repeated that I thought we would try to move back into our rising trading range after a few days. Well, it's taken longer, but if this is the start of that, that (now) resistance is sitting at ~$0.3425 and rises ~$0.01/week. I figure it should take at least a week to get there, if that's what's happening, so the price point of that resistance would be around $0.3525 – right where we would expect normal price-point resistance seen in the past.


    On my experimental charts, average trade size is back into what I think is retail, but at the lower side of mid-range I think. The 10-day buy percentage, which had fallen severely below range over the last seven days or so, has started to recover, but it has a way to go to overcome what we've been seeing and get back into a normal range.


    My experimental original inflection point calculations are still in disarray but, as mentioned over the last couple of days, when I look at the numbers improvement is surfacing. Today four of the six periods are improving – marked down from 5 improving. So although the squiggles on the charts didn't tell me a lot, the underlying numbers were suggesting that things might be getting better.


    While working on one of the newer versions today to put a one-year snapshot of it up, I think I detected that it was showing a “signal”. I haven't studied it enough to say, but I will be looking at it more closely now that I have a version to throw into the one-year bin.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    27 Feb 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • HT I agree that it "feels" like a near term bottom. That's why I think the placement will close sooner than later. It would sure be great if we could run until past Easter and then close the financing but I doubt we will be so lucky. Hopefully tomorrow we can get another 5% upward move.
    27 Feb 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Bazooooka: If this starts another "grind up", such as started last November, it might be useful to defer the financing. I don't believe we'll be so fortunate though - that was, IIRC from a low of ~$0.20xx to a high of ~$0.38. A similar percentage run would put us at ~$0.58 with an improving WVAP (closing) through any measurement period.


    xxx <<---- fingers crossed.


    BTW, I see I forgot to change the date in my post above - it's for the 27th. I should avoid C&P of that line I guess. :-((


    28 Feb 2013, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • is there any news on ns999
    28 Feb 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • I'll be doing my first of the month query of my Altoona contact on Friday, though it wouldn't surprise me if we're in a "news blackout" period and it will become harder to get information until there's an official announcement.


    Our only chance may be actual boots on the ground at


    Perhaps more fun ... satellite view ... note the turntable.


    Zooming the map reveals there's a church nearby where you can go in an pray for a sighting soon :-)


    N. 6th street looks interesting, but in general lots of trees on the other side of the switching yard, and other than the 8th st. bridge not much of an obvious vantage point to see if it's in the yard switching :-(
    28 Feb 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ed J, I've not seen anything of late official or otherwise.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • thank you
    28 Feb 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • ed---the last intel that has been posted here was a comment by AltoonaWorks on its facebook page on 2/6:


    "It's inside the shop getting worked on. These things don't happen over night."

    28 Feb 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Excellent posts in AXC 212 - led by JP's sane and reasoned thoughts throughout


    I say there will be at least one positive newsworthy announcement before any financing announcement. Also that TG and team are managing our side of the equation
    28 Feb 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • We are assuming that the 3rd party testing of the PbC batteries confirmed BMW's own testing.


    If so then BMW is in a first mover position when it comes to having a battery that stands up to the demands of stop/start technology.


    So if BMW were to take a position in Axion it could assure itself of the best technology available in a relatively short time. Axion could ramp up production of PbC batteries to satisfy BMW's roll out of stop/start. BMW would have bragging rights and Axion would finally have a solid customer.


    Futurist in APC Concentrator 37 did a good job analyzing current production. The New Castle facility has a limited capacity license to produce 250k AGM or PbC & 500k LAB's. 75,000 PbC's pa can in theory be produced with the current machinery. Apparently there is sufficient space on the premises to accomidate up to 10 production lines.


    In 2012 the BMW brand sold 281K cars.


    I doubt that BMW would introduce the PbC across the board in one product year but it could easily create sufficient demand to justify the roll out of several PbC production lines in order to include PbC batteries in the 2014 production year.


    Regarding the price which has been estimated at about $400. If Lab and AGM fail within months of installation then there is reputational damage done to the auto manufacturer and the battery supplier. Then there is the expense incurred to take the car back to the dealer and the dealers cost to recharge/recondition the duff battery. These costs may be repeated many times until the owner finally gives up and sells the car.


    Frankly the fuel savings alone appear to vastly outweigh the added up front cost of the PbC.
    28 Feb 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Albert> BMW's sold 1.85 million cars worldwide in 2012. The number you quoted was for the US only.

    28 Feb 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Just curious, how people would feel about a 3 or 5 year BMW exclusive automotive contract and a corresponding strategic investment in Axion?


    At first blush, it would appear to me that such a case would be ideal b/c even if Axion wanted to ramp up demand quickly it would take it quite awhile to ramp up enough to meet BMW's demand.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Many thanks for the correction.


    I was really only thinking about the US as that is generally what many here focus on.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • I mean, I would take it, as I would hope management would ... a bird in hand being worth two in the bush.


    Were the exclusive partnership for perpetuity (i.e. no other auto partners, a ceiling of 1.85 million units), I would valuate the BMW business at $3.70 pps for Axion (on very crude knapkin math and cruder assumptions :).


    And yes, it would take time to reach a production capacity of 1.85M units so it wouldn't cost Axion any other opportunities for some time. It would be important to negotiate the margins before any exclusive partnership or else Axion would be in a poor position to negotiate after inking an exclusivity deal.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan, Pretty sure there are regulations that would disallow such and arrangement.
    28 Feb 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stephan> I could see giving an automaker "first call" on production capacity but I'd hate to see an exclusive because even a biggie like BMW would be good news initially and a limiter on medium-term growth. A ten line electrode plant would represent about a million PbC batteries a year of capacity. Even with pessimistic assumptions, such a plant could be online within a year. Two plants, however, would be more than enough to satisfy all of BMWs needs. Unless there's nobody else in the wings the market will behave better if it sees a growth trajectory of one plant in the first year, two in the second year, three in the third year, etc.
    28 Feb 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • I'd love to see that, but can anyone point me toward another example of a major auto OEM doing such a thing with a small supplier?
    28 Feb 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • The reason for my above note was the thought that the big battery companies appear to so far have decided to build their own PbC wannabe. They might be strong enough to freeze Axion out for a long time yet.


    In automotive only BMW has the knowledge and the financial resources to get a battery that they endorse into their cars. I imagine the marketing people would just love to be able to claim that stop/start ONLY really works in BMW, unlike ALL the other auto manufactures.
    28 Feb 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • TB: I don't like it at all. Makes me think of giving away control of our destiny, I guess similar to the threat faced in 2009 with Exide.


    If it was a shorter-term exclusive, just allowing BMW to get a head start on the competition, it wouldn't bother me much. I like John's "first call" even better.


    Best, of course, is BMW's whisper in the ear of some tier-one that the PbC will be the battery of choice for them. I don't know if that's any more likely than an investment though, given Iindelco's recent enlightenment about the majors' desire for commoditization of batteries.


    28 Feb 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • In a heartbeat, I'd let BMW and Toyota have the worldwide automobile mkt, GM the North American SUV and truck mkt, Freightliner the APU mkt, and NS the North American loco mkt, if the price and terms are right. I certainly hope and expect that TG is open to reasonable negotiations. No one in their right mind would say this HAS to be a long slog to wealth. I'll take a shot at $3/shr in a year vs $10 in five. This is investing, not marriage.
    28 Feb 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • TB -
    This has been discussed here before, but is the best example that I can find.

    28 Feb 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • John, I guess the question becomes, how quickly could another plant be built?


    "Two plants, however, would be more than enough to satisfy all of BMWs needs."


    If it were a 3 year exclusive, Axion could get the share price going in the right direction, money coming in the door and start the process of finding a site, permitting and building which would allow them to be ready to go at the end of the period. We all know that there are regular delays in business, and I would think building another plant would be no different.


    Meanwhile, Axion could focus on the other markets and getting their initial production capacity and an eventual second plant up to snuff. JMO.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Yes. Its the "exclusive" part that I was particularly questioning. The CF factory appears to be non-exclusive.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, It is my opinion that nobody would build a greenfield site in the US at this time to expand operations. There is a ton of prime manufacturing space that can be had for a song in much of the US. It's already zoned and officials will bend over backwards to expedite the process.


    This assumes that the next increment of capacity wants to be located in the US. Not assured.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • ii - true enough, I have no idea what would go into such an endeavor except that I believe it would take longer to first carbon electrode production than originally forecast.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • I am afraid BMW will not roll any PbC system in its vehicles before a thorough fleet testing. My speculation
    1 Mar 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • I agree that fleet testing is essential before a design win, but it's important to understand that automakers learn a lot more about battery performance in the lab than they do in the test fleet because conditions in the lab are more controlled and generally more extreme. The real goal of fleet testing is to see how the battery performs as part of a fully integrated system. When BMW did fleet testing of AGM batteries in stop-start vehicles the testing period was about 6 months. Several articles from their engineering staff that talk about battery testing are available here:

    1 Mar 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • "The data show that capacity loss in the micro-hybrid power system is comparable to the CPS. However, the influence of mileage performance, which cannot be separated, suggests that battery stress is enhanced in the micro-hybrid power system although a battery refresh function is applied. Anyway, the FOT demonstrates the unsuitability of flooded batteries for the micro-hybrid power system because of high early capacity loss due to acid stratification and because of vanishing cranking performance due to increasing internal resistance. Furthermore, the lack of dynamic charge acceptance for high energy regeneration efficiency is illustrated. Under the presented FOT conditions charge acceptance of lead-acid (LA) batteries decreases to less than one third for about half of the sample batteries compared to new battery condition.


    A tear-down analysis was accomplished for selected VRLA–AGM batteries operated in the MHPS. Clear indications are found that pSoC-operation with periodically fully charging the battery (refresh charging) does not result in sulphation of the negative electrode. Instead, the batteries show corrosion of the positive grids and weak adhesion of the positive active mass."


    Can Ed Buiel comment on these last 2 lines? I thought that sulphation was the whole problem, but they seem to indicate that it is something else.
    1 Mar 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • >dimca ... What on earth is "AXC 212"? Typo? To me, this is a fan designation.
    28 Feb 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, I guess dImca failed to P in the right place on that post!


    Edit : It's electric.
    28 Feb 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • System redundancy in electric is becoming more important.


    Continental and BMW Group working together to develop freeway-grade highly automated driving


    "Continental will develop a safety architecture that allows for stable operation of test vehicles even if malfunctions occur. In addition to helping with the construction of the test vehicles, the company will play a key role in defining both the functional and the electrical/electronic architecture (E/E architecture). Continental will be involved in the development of functions and in conducting the necessary backend research under BMW Group’s guidance."

    28 Feb 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • a murder mystery writer's dream!
    28 Feb 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • A real Whodunit!


    But who?


    The dual personality engineer? The crafty but bored programmer? The ex husband tied to the CIA? The NS999 EMF as the engineer gunned it? John Petersen (On Yadoodle he's responsible for everything that's bad!)? The rabbits at the Denver airport?


    Stay tuned as the APH, with hat and pipe, gives up on trying to figure out the direction of the next AXPW move and takes on the mystery of the "Killer car". He's heard saying, "Compared to figuring out Axion, this is elementary my dear Watson!".
    28 Feb 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Boeing puts the box of brownie points back in the drawer.


    Japanese battery maker objects to Boeing fix for Dreamliner

    28 Feb 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Bow to my greatness.


    I have single-handedly accounted for almost a quarter of today's enormous volume. Where's the key to the executive washroom? :-)
    28 Feb 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Don't worry Renzo. After a volume surge (299% day over day yesterday) coupled with a price rise of almost 6% at the close, folks often say "let's see how this goes".


    And NITE has had us locked all day, first at bid/ask of $0.31/$0.3109 and now the ask at $0.32. Only ATDF(?) dared to come in and raise the bid briefly.


    28 Feb 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo, Since I'm at about 30% I'll open the door and invite you in. Heck, I even nicely folded and placed a clean towel. ;))


    HTL, At least today we know who ATDF was for one trade.


    Edit Oops, I was looking at the ask block size not volume. I'm currently just under 50% of today's whopping volume. So much for the perfect 50% rule.
    28 Feb 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco,
    Excellent!! Leaving the door open should also help the paint dry faster.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • thank you W T blanchard
    28 Feb 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • OT: Stephen Curry scores 54 pts. against Knicks. Called one of the greatest shooting performances in NBA history. -- 3-Min. Video.

    28 Feb 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • WIO: Amazing! And if I heard correctly, he scored 38 in the prior game.


    Think he's got a future?


    That's what we need Axion to do now - drop a few three pointers during this quarter.


    And you thought it was OT! ;-))


    28 Feb 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • OT Yep only in DC where all the Illuminati reside can the average US family afford an average transaction priced new car. I'll grant you I'm pretty surprised that 30k USD is the average car price. But we gotta have toys.


    New Cars Increasingly Out of Reach for Many Americans

    28 Feb 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • The other day I drove by a run down house trailer with a fairly new Hummer in the driveway. Maybe the rich relatives were visiting but it was the only vehicle on the premises.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • And the hits keep on coming: S&P downgrades (XIDE) to B- from B with outlook negative today.


    28 Feb 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Late-day surge again! ATDF jumps the bid +$0.0001 to $0.3101 x 2.5K "standard" and then withdraws it 00:01:03 later. So we're still stuck with NITE on both sides: $0.31 x 2.5K and NITE & UBSS asking $0.32 x 15K and 16K respectively.




    So much for today's excitement!


    EOM, so I guess we should expect it, huh?


    28 Feb 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • OT: Jeff Miller included this link in hs recent article, "Individual Investors! Get Your Share Of Profits From The Fed".


    It's hilarious!



    Original article here.


    28 Feb 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Currently enjoying watching my Lightbridge (LTBR)--another Special Sits holding- skyrocket before earnings.


    Head-fake or prescience? Time will tell.
    28 Feb 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo: (LTBR) is another I've been following for a *long* time, but never the guts to jump in ... yet.


    28 Feb 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • OLA, Como estan?


    At some point the price began to rise without news and no apparent reason.
    I remember reading something like this in a John Petersen comment.


    It's that time?-Carlos
    28 Feb 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Bayerische Motoren Werke announces it's reporting date. (19.03.2013)

    28 Feb 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    For those who don't write their dates in the European style, that would be March 19th, 2013.
    28 Feb 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Thanks! I noticed that but since there is no 19th month, I figured we Americanos would figure it out.


    Hopefully they will have a nice presentation in the document on their future business plans as they did last year. I'd like to see an embedded note in the 2015 CY that states "New SS that really works."
    28 Feb 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: "Americanos would figure it out"


    Gov-funded and directed public skool (;-)) graduates - maybe you have too much confidence? ;-))


    28 Feb 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, Ughh. 8-( All those resources with such poor top line results. Wait until the bill comes due. One more time, ughh!


    PS As always, Thanks for the technicals and the analysis in your follow on post. It's much appreciated! :)
    28 Feb 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • I believe that the US military also use the ddmmyyyy format.


    That format always made the most sense to me.
    28 Feb 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Correct, AiB... Though used for most correspondence (and to my eye) dd-MMM-yyyy as the clearest and most unambiguous:


    28 Feb 2013


    IMO also the quickest to apprehend...
    28 Feb 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • 48: " quickest to apprehend..."


    Can't resist - if I see it trying to flee, I'll grab it for you! :-))


    Comprende Senor?


    28 Feb 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: Don't worry about the recent high school graduates' education level, the fedgov is now offering loans for anyone that can hold a pen so the benighted student can go to "college" and get most of the education he SHOULD have gotten in HS. Lose 4 year of work experience and gain a 5 digit debt. Of course it makes sense! It's the Fedgov!


    Now that the banks are supposedly out of the picture, who is making money from the interest payments on that 1 Trillion dollars of student debt? Seriously, does anyone know? Are the banks still involved somehow?


    What a disgusting mess!
    1 Mar 2013, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • SiHB, Yep and many are borrowing in the range you suggest to get things like liberal arts degrees (Read-The new HS diploma). Good luck for most paying that off. As of yet you cannot write these loans off in BK. Voluntary slavery - Gen Y.


    You can bet you and I are backing those loans. But don't worry. The government is backing the value of that paper so you're safe!

    1 Mar 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • i have inverted it to do 2013/3/1 so that people know to pause and consider the format because its visibly different. It's a pain because checkbooks always put the "20__" at the end of the date line whereas I have to write it at the beginning ;)
    1 Mar 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Some info. on how the Georgia Port Authority is doing installing electric rubber tire gantry cranes. In this case seems they are using methods to run them directly off the grid with some level of diesel generation in the mix. Sounds like Axion has to get someone to look at this.

    1 Mar 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick,


    The other advantage to YYYYMMDD format is it naturally sorts both alphabetically and chronologically in a computerized list. I use this format when creating serial documents such as patient care notes or evaluations.


    Daly, Jane Eval 20130202
    Doe,John Eval 20120101
    Doe, John Eval 20130201
    1 Mar 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Difference Engine: Air apparent

    28 Feb 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • 02/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up shortly).
    # Trds: 20, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 24600, Vol 77100, AvTrSz: 3855
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3059
    # Buys, Shares: 7 11600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3147
    # Sells, Shares: 13 65500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3043
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:5.65 (15.0% “buys”), DlyShts 4550 (05.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.95%


    Yesterday I mentioned a potential short-term falling resistance that might come into play: “ It's currently ~$0.3185 and drops ~2/10ths of a cent each day”. Today, after seeing it hit and hold, one would be tempted to say it looks like it's in play, but that would be premature. Not enough volume today and it's only the first day after a relatively high-volume (compared to recent volumes) price improvement coming out of the doldrums (hopefully!). However, I do have to say I didn't like what I saw in NITE (Knight Capital management) market-maker actions today. They spent a large part of the day, starting right from the open, keeping the bid/ask very narrow at $0.31/$0.3109. Then they moved the ask up to $0.32 and NITE was joined by UBSS. But at 15:10 NITE caved and dropped the ask to $0.31 shortly after some trades went at $0.3055, starting at 15:06. So, no “strong hands” there! The “late-day fade” is alive and well, albeit at a slightly higher price level, at least temporarily.


    Our usual nemeses, ATDF and TEJS, were relatively quite today.


    Moving on, we had a higher low and high for the second day. With the volume, I guess, the oscillators I watch became mixed again – some continued up, others weakened a bit. Nothing worth noting though. The 50-day SMA continues to rise slightly and the spread to the 200-day widens a bit.


    With the 50-day SMA ($0.3161), the 200-day SMA ($0.313) and the potential descending resistance all right at the price area seen today, I'm not surprised to see some hesitation here. Since tomorrow is both a Friday and the first day of a new month, I don't know what to expect (as if I ever really do know!). Another slow day wouldn't be a surprise I guess.


    With all that, I can think of only one thing from my experimental charts that warrant a mention – everything else is just like yesterday except that the buy:sell flopped over again. That one thing is a continued intra-day VWAP improvement: $0.3080, $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932, $0.2973, $0.2992, $0.3015 and $0.3059. Regardless of volume and other technical indicators, I see this as an important trend to continue, regardless of opens or closes. Let's hope it does so.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    28 Feb 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • and so it goes...continues...


    California Girds for Electricity Woes
    Increased Reliance on Wind, Solar Power Means Power Production Fluctuates

    28 Feb 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Whodda Thunk?
    28 Feb 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • I think there is a huge market for RoseWater Energy HUB in CA!!!!
    1 Mar 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • A counterpoint to the WSJ article on CA grid is here for those interested: "there's strong evidence the technical capabilities exist to enable California to absorb a lot more renewables without threateaning overall reliability"
    1 Mar 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Wind power in Spain hit a new record:
    1 Mar 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • It is pointing to Germany as it's example of doing a good job while other countries are banning Germany's energy dumps.


    Poland And Czech Republic Ban Germany’s Green Energy
    Date: 29/12/12 Daniel Wetzel, Die Welt


    " Germany’s ‘eco-miracle’ simply used the power grids of neighboring countries not only without asking for permission but also without paying for it. Now Poland and the Czech Republic have pulled the plug and are building a huge switch-off at their borders to block the uninvited import of green energy from Germany which is destabalising their grids and is thus risking blackouts."


    Technologically possible and economically feasible are not in the same boat here.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • NDA's, Really? OMY!


    Holland's other advanced battery factory goes nautical by supplying German boat maker


    "The factory also makes lithium ion batteries for General Motor’s hybrid fleet vehicles, and for hybrid and plug-in hybrid models for European carmakers, Miller said. She said they are contractually barred from identifying the European brands."

    28 Feb 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Don't know if this has been posted before. I found an American company with the Rosewater Hub as one of its offerings.



    It is Bethesdasystems that offers electrical controls and home theater. At the time of this post it is not listed as a partner on Rosewater's site.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • jveal,


    Bethesda is one of the distributors for Rosewater HUB in Florida. It is the only distributor I have come across so far...
    1 Mar 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Monthly Altoona NS-999 update:


    "I really don’t know where they’re at with it, but it’s been inside for a few weeks now.


    If they test it in the yard, people will be able to see it from 8th Street. 8th Street bridge does have a side walk on the west side.


    All the photos posted from the turntable area are taken without trespassing. 6th street dead ends at the water treatment plant for the shop."
    1 Mar 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Wtb: "... inside for a few weeks now".


    I think this is BIG! They wouldn't take up space that could be used for other work to just keep it warm and dry, would they.


    Let's hope that you hear something sooner than the normal interval from your contact.


    Thanks Wtb!
    1 Mar 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • WTB I agree with HTL


    I does seem; 999's appearance in the yard, should be soon.
    The physical lay out would have been designed before ordering the shelving units. They are use heavy duty wiring/electronics with diesel engines, so protecting the wires from vibration when in motion should require care, but not have a large learning curve.
    (It says here)
    This was good to hear thanks.
    1 Mar 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you WTB!
    1 Mar 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • WTB,
    Thanks for the update. I may be wrong, but considering how long it has now been since the batteries were shipped, I would think that NS must be doing some types of testing on the batteries in the unit while it is still in the shop. It's been too long to have them just sitting around losing charge, they must be running electricity through them to keep them completely dissipating. IMHO
    1 Mar 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: Just occurred to me: I wonder if there's a traffic camera that happens to be located and oriented in a way that we can see things of interest.


    1 Mar 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Way ahead of you HT. There are some that are tantalizingly close, but not quite close enough:



    Also NS buildings blocking the view ...
    1 Mar 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • That's very good news.
    1 Mar 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • I think we may have to plant somebody :-)

    1 Mar 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): Well, looks like today starts with a repeat of yesterday, but at a slightly lower price point.


    NITE on both sides with standard present of 2.5K bid/ask of $0.3001/$0.31, pre-market at 08:30 EST.


    1 Mar 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • Fluidic shows a peek of its metal air batteries for off and on the grid

    1 Mar 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Oooh Ahhh,
    Sure would like to see some long term test results from those millions of hours.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • I have to wonder if changing the metal electrode geometry is really the answer. Rechargeable metal-air cells have been "2 years away from a real product" for at least 20 years. Or is it 30?


    Reminds me of practical plasma fusion reactors.
    1 Mar 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • They did talk of some aspects of new separators and electrolytes as well. So they gotta be close. They just gotta be!


    Cold fusion is close too. Be in a Walmart any day now! Heard it on the street of Bologna .


    Oh well, there's always "HOPE"......for a HUB sale too! :)
    2 Mar 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • From ink to batteries, startup Vorbeck gets creative with the next silicon: graphene



    "Vorbeck worked with packaging company MWV to create a graphene-based package for products that need an embedded security system. .... But with the graphene package a sensor can detect when the package has been moved, taken out of the building or even cut open. Graphene is cheap enough that it adds just a couple of pennies to the packaging cost, said Martin. Home Depot and CVS stores in some areas of the east coast are already using this packaging."
    1 Mar 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Wander around the store, randomly poking holes in packages, and watch the excitement.


    Maybe it is practical, maybe not.
    1 Mar 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • The last thing we need it better ways to catch people doing stupid things. We can't afford the one's we've already caught.


    Imagine if we could catch them all. We'd have to give them the right to vote or some people would lose their live time occupation.
    2 Mar 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • "Graphene has been called tomorrow’s silicon because of its conductive properties, cheap price and attractive traits like being strong and thin."


    Hmm, I seem to remember someone talking about how expensive graphene was going to be.


    "Graphene can also be used as an additive in batteries to give them more energy density (amount of energy they can store), boost the charge rate, and increase the cycle life."


    Imagine that.
    2 Mar 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • A single layer of graphene is pretty cheap. You can find it all over the Internet for $50 to $100 per gram.



    When you start talking about using 563.6 grams of graphene in a 100 Ah 3.x volt lithium-ion battery, it isn't so cheap.
    2 Mar 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Price it currently is was the point I believe. Innovation is a wonderful thing.


    BTW, That doesn't mean all graphenes are the same in structure or purity. In theory they are but in reality?
    2 Mar 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Back around 2005 I read an article saying it was $5,000 for a square centimeter. ( By the end if the article I was mentally counting. Just exactly how many pencils, do I have at home?) ;-)


    Ever since then, when they say how cheap it is now; I wonder what standard they are using to compare 'cheap' to.
    2 Mar 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • froggey, When people mention some measurement using terms outside of scientific units you should always make sure you can qualify it back to units you understand. What close to most might signify is not the same as what close might mean to an astronomer.


    And cheap for a battery for the space station is not cheap for our cell phones. Also, just because it's cheap to make doesn't mean you didn't have to spend a billion USD to make it a reality. Let's just call this last thought the "Chinese advantage".
    2 Mar 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • >jpr3 ... I just love the way people can so easily confuse the science of chemistry with physics. Graphene is interesting for its physical properties not its chemical properties. In a battery (an energy storage device) mass counts.


    "As the energy stored is inversely proportional
    to the thickness of the double layer, these capacitors have
    an extremely high energy density compared to conventional
    dielectric capacitors. They are able to store a large amount
    of charge which can be delivered at much higher power
    ratings than rechargeable batteries." ..... "Ultracapacitors are ideal
    for any application having a short load cycle and high
    reliability requirement, such as energy recapture sources
    including load cranes, forklifts, and electric vehicles."



    The properties of a graphene capacitor integrated into a battery will increase power output and decrease/limit the energy stored. It will do nothing to increase energy and the battery will still be limited by it cycle & thermal life expectancy properties. If the chemistry doesn't like higher amperage and/or temperature coming in or can't accommodate the capacitor's shortened rise time, the only thing that will happen is shorten the life of the battery.


    Axion's device uses this very technique & benefits with boosting the charge rate, and increase the cycle life because it, by serendipity I think, eliminated the largest weakness of the chemistry. I don't think Li-on will benefit in kind. As to price, true graphene material has cratered from being about $100k per sq cm in 2008 to about $1,000 per sq cm today (vapor dep is a bit cheaper subject to substrate cost). There are materials out there advertised as graphene are quite similar to nanostructures similar to what is found in charcoal ... like coconut husks.
    2 Mar 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Froggy> If you figure that graphene has a surface area of ~2,000 square meters per gram then the per square meter price is dirt cheap. It just gets expensive when you want a few hundred pounds for a Tesla.
    2 Mar 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • >jrp3 ... I would think that the highest value uses of graphene, aside from that achieved in PVD devices like capacitors, transistors, optical modulators, piezoelectricity and others, would be for things like desalinization, gas detection and (my personal favorite) light amplification. The last use would dramatically increase PV panels an estimated 15-25% by making it possible to turn infrared into visible light. All uses that far outweigh batteries for large applications. All still at least a decade away from exiting the laboratory. Although, for high value electronics there will be batteries (PVD tin/graphene) made from graphene and no one is going to waste them for transportation.


    Strictly speaking, the definition of graphene is: " A single carbon layer of the graphitic structure can be considered as the final member of the series naphthalene, anthracene, coronene, etc. and the term graphene should therefore be used to designate the individual carbon layers in graphite intercalation compounds. Use of the term "graphene layer" is also considered for the general terminology of carbons." ( ) This makes all this "stuff" advertised as "graphene" some 3 dimensional form of graphite in a structure like "nanotubes" or "Buckyballs" and not graphene but shaped graphite. Sheeted graphene has the problem of manufacture which in quantity is only accomplished by exfoliation of graphite into sheet and,to my knowledge, only been done at huge cost by a Japanese company. Meanwhile, sheeted, as opposed to PVD, graphene has the problem of being thermodynamically unstable. Just a few little other problems that also need to be worked out.


    So don't be caught buying a pig in a poke.
    3 Mar 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • DRich,
    So you're saying that Vorbeck doesn't understand the properties of it's material?
    From Vorbeck:


    "Vor-charge™ graphene composite anode is a fully formulated anode composite with Li-ion storage material and graphene intimately mixed. The highly conductive anode leads to less internal resistance and low temperatures during rapid charge and discharge. Vor-charge™ offers long cycle life as there is no graphite particle fragmentation and loss of capacity due to large volume expansion and contraction."


    "Next Generation Lithium Battery Chemistries


    Lithium Sulfur. Utilizes a three-dimensional sandwich-type architecture containing layers of Vor-x® graphene sheets and sulfur nanoparticles as the cathode material or lithium-sulfur batteries.
    Sulfur sandwiched between Vor-x® sheets provides good physical and electrical contact between sulfur and graphene.
    Intimate mixing provides fast electron and ionic transfer resulting in much higher reversible capacity at fast charge/discharge rates."

    3 Mar 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • >jpr3 ... I'm no saying Vorbeck doesn't understand. I'm saying you don't. Color me surprised.


    So Vorbeck is making sheets of a graphitic material that contains graphene, no doubt, and is advertising it as a "graphene solution". A true, if not misleading statement, but ... hey ... it might sell as new & improved. Axion is, by the same measure, is a graphene electrode solution and Axion was actively working on it since before it was even known as a material in the public knowledge base. Any milled carbon structure will have some free standing flakes of graphene within and the outer layer of the 3D structure can loosely be understood to be a graphene structure. Doesn't make it purely graphene though.


    I don't know how Vor-x sheets are made but the failure to mention a substrate says straight-away it is not graphene. There is only one company producing pure sheet material by exfoliation (that I know of) and it is too, too expensive for commodity use and other nonsubstrate processes have yields to low for commerce yet. The phrase "Intimate mixing" should have been a clue that what is being discussed more likely a finely milled graphitic material in a fullerene structure more similar to a benzene ring than graphene.


    Even so, there is a trade-off. You can't increase capacitance without lowering stored energy within a battery, so you have to make up your mind what to do with the inherent energy density you have according to the chemically active mass. Do you want more power input/output over a shorter period of time because of diminished reactive mass or more energy at a steady state input/output flow from a higher reactive mass. Can't have both and the strengths & weaknesses of the chemistry remain the same.
    3 Mar 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • "You can't increase capacitance without lowering stored energy within a battery,"


    Seems as if you can. A123 has much higher C rates at the same energy density when compared to other LiFePO4 cells, and this year CALB increased the C rates for their LiFePO4 cells at the same energy density.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • C rate measures the speed of electrochemical reactions. Capacitance is an entirely different species.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid you can't do that to the package.


    WTB, Thanks for the NS 999 update. Chances are those former batteries are on the last leg of their odyssey. Maybe their reincarnation will be in positive electrodes for PbC batteries for the OTR loco. NS can paint a sign on the OTR loco when it rolls out, "Axion, Helping Norfolk Southern take a much longer odyssey".
    1 Mar 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • Note: Last year's capital raise was announced Feb. 1 with pricing set as average closing price of prior two months.


    Today is March 1 and no PR thus far. Announcement of a new raise after market closes today is possible, but I don't look for one for several weeks at earliest. Maybe before the reporting deadline for Q1.
    1 Mar 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • We continue to focus on the Altoona site for news of the NS 999 yard slug that will use only Axion PbC batteries.


    We are all waiting with baited breath for a sighting and even more importantly data from its actual use within the yard.


    We are also hoping for news of the outfitting of another engine for OTR use.


    Do we have any idea as to what is happening in Norfolk Southerns 7 other locomotive shops?


    I have no idea as to why Altoona is the site for the NS 999 "rebirth". Is it the place where total rebuilds are done? Seems unlikely to me but what do I know sitting here on my rock in the middle of the Atlantic.
    1 Mar 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Albert, Based on WTB's contact and the random pictures we see posted on rail fan sites we do know that the NS999 is at the Juniata site. I would expect that based on the expertise concentrated there that subsequent programs would remain at this site until things are proven and nailed down.


    This would hold true IMO for the OTR loco as well unless they are going to use the contract resources they used for the initial NS999. I've been looking at some of their sites as well but no signs of any activity.


    This is also how automotive typically launches programs when they have multiple sites building the same product as well. They define "lead plants" and roll out to other markets based on lessons learned and shared expertise. Kinda makes sense.
    1 Mar 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Is it me or is there a distinct drop in the number of comments being offered over the last few days?


    Are our contributors exhausted, otherwise occupied, speechless or just resigned to sit mum until the earnings release and CC?


    I must say its getting a bit boring. I check "My Feed" maybe a dozen times a day and its getting to the stage when I wonder if I'm wasting my time. Heaven forbid I might have to even read the JPR3, JohnnyRambo posts. Anything but that!!!


    Maybe I should go hibernate?


    Okay, How about those graphite stocks? I am long Northern Graphite and Focus, anyone have an opinion?


    Also long AVL and GWMGF, anyone else like my picks?


    I'm dying out here, any help on offer???
    1 Mar 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Albert: I've noticed that Fridays often have reduced comment activity. If, like me, folks consider this "their job", we behave on Fridays just like other "employees" on Fridays! ;-))


    1 Mar 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Albert,
    Not much to discuss that we haven't already beat to death. Any news will be appreciated about Axion or our competition. I'm sure iindelco will find something newsworthy on the net.
    Obviously in this case no news is not "good" news. Its simply non-news. Paint drying news.


    Of course if it gets any slower I will have to watch re-runs of the NFL combine. That will make your blood run even slower.
    1 Mar 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • I have NO end to OT topics I could introduce. But that may not be what you're looking for. :)
    1 Mar 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • "Obviously in this case no news is not "good" news. Its simply non-news."


    There are times when silence speaks loudly. I tend to think no news in this case stands as much chance (or more) of reflecting very good news as silence potentially reflecting bad news.


    :-) Differences in perceived value are an important driver of markets.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • I think today was a great day with confirmation that 999 has been in the shop for several weeks. That's NEWS! Almost good enough, but not quite good enough, to get me off the sidelines.
    1 Mar 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Will paint dry if no one is in the room to touch it?
    1 Mar 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • What happens when you touch it and it flakes off?
    1 Mar 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • >AlbertinBermuda ... The next point of interest for me is whether ePower Engine Systems attends Green Truck Summit 2013, March 5-6 in Indianapolis. I haven't seen any confirmation the company will be ready. If they do, I wonder if there are any Axion shareholders within travel distance to make it and report back. Beyond that, I'm expecting Norfolk Southern to roll NS999 sometime between 3rd week of March and the end of April and, still, I don't expect any PR out of them for months.


    Yawn, boredom is building into the Quarterly Report.
    1 Mar 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • i will go to Indy or Louisville, one is 2 hours, Indy 4 hours, I need a break anyway.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • >LT ... Even if ePower is not there (I don't know either way), there are going to be some very interesting working truck innovations on display. Might even be some investment ideas to be gleaned.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Doing my homework on various stocks today I saw a company that had a committee to look at "strategic alternatives" for the company. The link is here:


    Here was their characterization of the study:
    "Since August 2012, the Special Committee has explored numerous strategic alternatives available to the Company, including a sale of all or parts of the business, a spin-off and split-off of parts of the business, capital structure alternatives, and potential merger combinations. As part of its active review, the Special Committee and its financial advisor, Goldman Sachs, engaged with over 45 potential financial and strategic partners (including competitors of the Company) to determine their levels of interest in a strategic transaction involving the Company. None of the parties contacted by the Special Committee presented a definitive transaction for final approval by the Special Committee. The Special Committee is not recommending any transaction or other strategic alternative to the Board."


    Might be useful in what a strategic partner might mean to Axion,
    1 Mar 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, Strategic alternative is a euphemism of "selling the company". Axpw hasn't used such horrible wording.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • I think the applicable phrases to AXPW were, "engaged with over 45 potential financial and strategic partners (including competitors of the Company) to determine their levels of interest in a strategic transaction involving the Company." Also possible " capital structure alternatives."
    1 Mar 2013, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe the best characterization of a strategic partner for Axion might be "Is there anything we can do to avoid another down round financing with the same clowns as last time?"
    1 Mar 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • An interesting read to see where SS fits and some timing perspective. It's a little dated but still relevant.


    Reads a little better with a beverage of your choosing.


    Schaeffler SYMPOSIUM 2010


    The future comes automatic
    Efficient automatic transmissions provide a basis for hybrid capable drive trains

    1 Mar 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco:


    You are the king of the information.


    Have a nice night.-Carlos
    1 Mar 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Carlos, Buenas noches, mi amigo.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco, Gracias por sus palabras.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Since you all are clearly begging for something to read I'll do my monthly summery.


    Volt was the sales leader with 1,626 much better than last month and a year ago; but excluding January of last year the average month was over 2,000 sales in 2012. I notices Volt's for lease at $229 $0 down IIRC. Which probably helped.


    Leaf was 653 but was very constrained at the beginning of the month. 2013 have begun to arrive at dealers but will be somewhat constrained this month as well.
    I went to
    28 , 2011s
    190, 2012s
    327, 2013s
    Insideevs states about 330-od ’13s were sold during the month.
    Cars dot com seems to be a good approximation of the number Leafs out there.


    They estimate the Model S at1,400 sold.


    Fisker at 10 sold.
    They dropped Coda entirely.


    Ford won't report until Monday. They did get EPA approval for one of their models and is tied with Toyota for most models with HOV lane approvals.


    Honda sold 17 Fits They made 1,100 which will last 4 more years at this rate.
    They officially added an Accord plug in but they are basically MIA from dealerships and sold 17. Matching the Fit.


    Mitsubishi sold 337 i-MiEVs in February, which brings the year-to-date total to 594 units, or 6 more than Mitsubishi sold in all of 2012. This is thanks to a 2 year lease of $169 a month $0 down.


    The Smart was a double for the month with 2 sold. A next gen is expected soon.


    Toyota Prius PHEV has dropped in number for 4 months in a row and at 693 had it's second worst month ever. (688 in July)
    The RAV 4 Thanks to a $5,000 discount jumped from 25 in January to 54 in Feb. Toyota has now doubled the incentive to $10,000 If you live in Ca. your total is $20,000 off and 29,800 left on the sticker. Oh yes 0% financing for 5 years.
    1 Mar 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Ford came out with their sales.
    Ford Fusion Energi: Despite Ford spokeperson, Taylor Blackburn saying early last week that no Fusion Energis would be sold in February….Ford sold Fusion Energis in February.


    119 of them.


    Ford C-Max Energi:


    February results for the C-Max Energi are nearly identical to the numbers posted in January. Ford reports that 334 C-Max Energis were sold in the US in February. 4 less than January which was production restrained the February had less of a supply problem.


    Ford Focus electric 158 sold February, or nearly double the amount the automaker sold in January.


    January, were just 81 units. Ford is not expecting 2013 sales of the model to improve by very much overall, despite a tripling of the dealership base that is able to sell the plug-in car.


    Toyota Is apparently going to discount the PHEV Prius to try and hold steadyish on sales, but has not announced anything yet.


    " Bill Fay says that up until recently, the bulk of Toyota PHV purchases have been purchases, a trend not seen in other vehicles like the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF that are heavily skewed to leasing. "
    5 Mar 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Some interesting PHEV/EV news
    McLaren is putting out a PHEV
    $1.1 mil base
    17 sec from 0 to 185mph


    Energy Conservation and Human Nature
    A decent read of getting use to an EV and OCPD


    GM hopes to up their world wide sales of Volts by 20% to 36,000 this year but have stumbled out of the gate with big sales areas running short the first two months of the year. Ca. and Mi last month Ca was short part of this month
    In the past 5 months combined, only 69 Amperas have been made. Europe does not appear to love it's version of the Volt.


    "Cristi Landy, GM’s marketing director for small cars, said in an interview earlier this month that poor inventory management decisions have mostly been taking their toll in California, GM’s largest market for the Volt, noting that Chevy has run out of product “three or four times in the last 12 months.” "




    You can rent a Model S for $20.00 an hour in San Francisco.


    Virginia approves a $100 annual road use tax for all EVs.


    Renault Twizy Factory Video: No Robots, Higher Wages, And Maybe The Only EV That Turns A Profit


    Also to the best of our knowledge, it is currently the only mass produced EV on the planet where its parent company claims to be fully profitable on the operation as a whole.
    Since the 62 mile range EV went on sale in March of 2012, Renault has sold 9,203 Twizys (Top speed 50)



    Twizy is being given a trial run in Japan. By Renaults partner Nissan


    Almost missed one


    Japan's Electric Taxis Falling Out Of Favor With Drivers


    It seems they are losing range.
    They signed a deal with the Govt. and are obligated to keep using them.


    "While reliable, comfortable and smooth as ever, high-mileage drivers are finding degredation of the battery packs to be an issue.


    Where a 60-mile range was once common in regular use, some are finding that cut to as low as 30 miles--and to save energy as much as possible, some drivers are shunning the car's heater in favor of chemical pocket warmers, and even blankets.


    Degredation of the battery pack has also had an effect on the battery's ability to take a quick charge. A 15-minute charge has turned into a 40-minute one for many drivers. They can't travel as far, and they can't spend as much time on the road--and it's ruining business, for some. Customers requesting longer trips are even being turned down.


    There's no get-out for the drivers, either. To qualify for the government's subsidy, the electric cars must be run for a minimum of three years. That's a year too long for some--“I’m getting out of this business,” said one driver, “This is no way to earn a living.” "

    1 Mar 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • When I was rereading the article I noticed this:


    "Osaka's electric taxi drivers aren't facing unheard-of problems, but nor can their experiences be considered the norm--either for electric car owners, or electric taxi drivers.
    Climate, driving routes and charging habits all make a difference to how well a car lasts, and the life of a taxi is never an easy one.
    The main issue for Leaf batteries is still excessive heat, rather than cold (though cold climates do reduce the car's range)."


    I decided to check on the temperature range of Osaka Japan where the Leafs are being used.


    It reaches a maximum day time high in Aug. of 91F (33C)
    and a low of 34F (1C) Most of the US goes both above this and below this range.


    "What it does suggest is that in some localities, electric vehicles aren't yet ready for heavy-duty tasks like taxi work."


    I am not aware of any other place that has had EVs as taxis for two or more years. Making the claim
    "in some localities,EVs aren't ready" to be suspect.
    It is more likely there isn't any locality, where EVs are ready.
    1 Mar 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • I believe the problem is that they are fast charging the LEAF's many times each day. Not even close to normal use, and obviously not the right application for that vehicle. The iMiEV or the Fit, which both use Toshiba Scib cells, could handle the multiple fast charging abuse, or the Model S which has a large enough pack not to need repeated fast charging, would be better choices.
    2 Mar 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Jrp3
    as stated in the article:


    "As a recent survey showed, frequency of quick charging seems to have little bearing on a battery's life or health."


    They were referencing the Leaf study by Plug in America.
    Pg 5.
    2 Mar 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Jrp3, a model s used as a taxi?


    A $60k taxi is an idea that is not just on another planet, it's in an entirely different universe.


    2 Mar 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • D McHattie,
    I thought that only the $80K Model S could use the super chargers? Which brings up an interesting question. If only the $80K Model S cars can use Tesla's super chargers, why would anyone buy the $40K or $60K model? I keep hearing people compare them to other luxury cars, but all of those don't have a range limitation. So isn't the only true comparison to a Leaf? It's the only other range limited electric car being made that can't use Tesla's superchargers? Or am I missing something?
    2 Mar 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • As I understand the situation, the 60 and 85 kWh battery upgrades can use the Superchargers but the 40 kWh base model can't. It makes sense when you think in terms of charging current as a function of amp hours of total battery capacity. The easy solution would be a charger the was smart enough to avoid overloading the battery, but I'm not convinced that Tesla really wants to build cars with 40 kWh batteries because of the warranty risk.


    All that spare capacity may be promoted as a range anxiety cure, but its real purpose is to assure that most battery packs will be.cycled shallowly from an 80% SOC. it's the magic formula for long battery life. Buy way more than you need and then avoid anything beyond an occasional deep discharge.
    2 Mar 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Here's an article that talks about the different options showing range and some other metrics. It makes sense that TSLA might also provide some advantages to the larger battery models. Also agree that battery life and risk management make sense as well.


    Why bigger battery options give Tesla Model S better performance

    2 Mar 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    Thanks for the correction. I did find it "interesting" in the Tesla cc that Musk said he was surprised that so many reservations were for the high end models and not the low end. I'm like...really? If you are building superchargers across the nation in an attempt to prove to consumers that they can drive anywhere with the car, and then you build a model that can't use the superchargers, why would anyone want a 40 kWh model S, unless you were only going to use it for a commuter car? Claiming it compares to any other luxury car is nonsense. It is a Leaf with a bigger battery and is a nicer ride. I can see business types who might buy it for driving to work, to take advantage of HOV lanes, and who can bill people for their time in the car, but it will never be mainstream. I would really like a breakdown in the Model S cancellations to see how many of them are in the 40 kWh, when the consumers realized that they wouldn't be able to use the supercharger system.
    And you have to wonder, if/when they finally make the Model X, that is supposed to be more affordable, if it will be able to use the superchargers or not as well? Because if it can't, again, it's just competition for the Leaf, and we've already seen how great those sales are. IMHO.
    2 Mar 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • There is no 40 kWh option on the Model X, just the 60 and 85 kWh.
    3 Mar 2013, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    Ah, I see you are correct about the battery packs in the Model X. I guess it won't be the "affordable" model that Tesla has talked about coming out with in the future for the masses.
    3 Mar 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Methinks the affordable future Tesla will be a lot like the unicorn. Fun to talk about but never seen in the wild.
    3 Mar 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Froggey,
    The number of quick charges in that Plug in survey were miniscule, unlike the repeated daily fast charges the taxis were reporting.
    3 Mar 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • The X was never intended to be the affordable Tesla, don't know where you got that idea. It's probably going to cost the same as the S since it's built on the same platform. The affordable Tesla is going to be the smaller Gen3 sedan targeted for around 2016 I believe.
    3 Mar 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • D Mc,
    Prepare to be transported to a different universe:


    Near the bottom of the comment section, post by Levi:


    "Note:- I own my limousine company (3 Lincoln Towncars)
    We service around 100 mile radius from the airport.


    Been in business 10 yrs. Average towncar gets 17 mpg.. fills up at 17.5 gallon gas tank = (17*17.5)= 290 miles. We usually use 1 tank a day/ car. At $3.75/g for 3 cars i pay =
    ($3.75/g*17.5g tank) * 3 cars = $196.8/day in gas. That’s alot for my small business .
    Let me make it easier 1 towncar.. 17.5g * $3.75 = $65.4/day for 6 day/week we run = 65*6= $390. That comes to (390*4 weeks) = $1560 / month or $18,000/ year.


    I just replaced one towncar this February with my brand new Model S. Electrician just finished redoing the high power sockets for faster charging @ our office. I calculate that my Model S will
    Pay for it self in around FOUR YEARS.!!!


    The Towncar I replaced was consuming $18,000 gas per year ( $18,000 * 4 yrs) = $ 72,000
    Tune-up & Maintenance was $2,500/yr * 4 = $10,000 ( these r commercial vehicles kept in excellent conditions) new tires every yr, spark plugs oil change etc.. That’s $82,000 in 4 yrs.


    You can’t believe if I tell you that customers actually drive me to the airport…. & pay me for the fare.(just so they can test- drive a Tesla). I’m planning to replace another towncar by years end.By the way Im having a business BOOM because of it."
    3 Mar 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • I'm just curious to know what the outcome with the insurance company would be if one of the gentlemen's fee paying customers had an accident with the car.
    3 Mar 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • I'm dying to hear Tesla's response when he brings the cars in for a battery replacement in a couple years. With that kind of daily abuse it's like Vivian in Pretty Woman, a sure thing.

    3 Mar 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • With electric equipment, i.e. washing machines, dryers, etc. the warranty is voided if used for commercial purposes. I'm wondering if automakers might have the same kind of warranty, but perhaps with the time and mileage specified in the warranty, maybe it makes no difference.
    3 Mar 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • They can give an unlimited mileage warranty to retail consumers, but I have to imagine there's a get out of jail free card for businesses that will try to fully use battery packs that are designed for shallow cycling near TOC.
    3 Mar 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • jrp, interesting post... as the original poster is numerically challenged.


    A Tesla S-85 is double or more the cost of a Towncar. Plus he had to buy and install the rapid charger. The blogger ignores depreciation, both vehicle and battery.


    At 290 miles per day, he is going about 87,000 miles per year. The car will not be worth much after four years. Even the most ardent EVangelist will concede he won't make 300,000+ miles on the same battery. Whether the Tesla "unlimited mileage" warrantee will still be applicable is anyone's guess. ("commercial service exclusion"? Chap 11 reorganization that wipes out the warrantee? etc.)


    Tesla cannot do 290 miles without recharging, even when the battery is new. It will lose 30% of its capacity over time. No mention of how that impacts his scheduling. The passengers are always going to want a/c or heat, unlike many owners who forego for range..


    He forgot to include electricity cost. Including BMS temperature controls, he is probably using a minimum of 150kwh per day. At 15 cents, that is $22 of daily fuel he forgot to include.


    $10,000 of maintenance per year seems like a lot...but the Tesla still consumes tires (annually), lights, wheel alignments, etc. The blogger ignored Tesla's $600 annual maintenance fee, and the $150 annual a/c fee. In addition, there appears to be about $5000 for extended warrantee coverage he ignored.


    I am sure all my fellow taxpayers are happy that we get to pay for his use of our highways.


    He may be saving some operating expense, may have challenging scheduling issues, and nobody know if the car will run well for 300,000+ miles. However, no way he has a four year payback.


    It probably is great marketing.
    3 Mar 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla can easily determine whether a car is being used as a licensed limousine or not. Or a taxi, for that matter. Tesla did not hesitate to leave their customers in the dark when the bricking incidents cropped up. Imagine the flag that will go up the first time the limoS pulls into the dealership (with its limo stickers on the rear bumper) with 5 times the normal mileage for the age of car...
    3 Mar 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Truly Affordable Tesla Electric Sedan to Launch in 2015

    3 Mar 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Right after this release –
    3 Mar 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Metro, Since you mentioned insurance here's something for you to look forward to. As we know the technology pretty much exists today in the major markets.


    Why do I suspect the financial stick will far exceed the carrot as an inspiration for adoption? Get ready to fire up the production line for the tin foil antenna covers!


    Machine to machine is big buzz


    "Colao, the Vodafone CEO, gave an example of another “smart” car application that might seem intrusive to some: The company has been trying out a service in Italy that lets an auto insurance company know how much a car is being used and charges premiums accordingly. It also can score the driver based on his or her driving style and give pointers on how to handle the car more safely."

    3 Mar 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3,
    I see, I had the X and the Gen3 mixed up. I guess since it was Tesla's 3rd auto, somewhere I got it in my head that it was the Gen3 model.
    So help me here. If we assume that the Gen3 is going to be a smaller sedan are we also assuming it's going to be made to compete with the Leaf, since I don't see how they can make an affordable sedan that is going to use the 60 or 80 kWh batteries, and so it isn't going to be able to use the supercharger system for long distance driving?
    3 Mar 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    I just wish I could get an app to make my drainpipes stop smelling.
    3 Mar 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Metro, Not using traps with enough head pressure there in Dubai? They make mechanical stoppers for that. Or maybe a teaspoon of baking soda when you're done using the sink (s) if it's not sewer gas.


    International travel. It's not all wine and roses ya know.
    3 Mar 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • :-) Hmmm, I wonder what it costs to charge those Tesla batteries at the upgraded, high power office sockets and what the electrician charged (labor & parts/equipment) for the upgrade. Must be free, uh.
    3 Mar 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • Progressive Insurance has been doing the same thing (they heavily advertise a tracking device you install in your car yourself) as another reason to buy their insurance and save money...


    Probably makes economic sense, too.


    Imagine how many insurance claims they can deny because their tracking shows that you were driving 2 miles over the limit at the time of the accident - or that you are driving more miles per year than you claimed on your insurance policy!


    Big Brother, oh brother...
    4 Mar 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • TB, I'll bet the cost/savings distribution curve is not normal. Mo stick, less carrot! And as you suggest some pretty big sticks at times.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • Lab,
    We don't know what supercharger access will be for the Gen3, my feeling is that like the S the higher end models will get the access. The base model would be cost competitive with the LEAF, though it has to be a much better looking and performing vehicle, and I'm guessing the higher models with better options will be significantly more expensive. Frankly I think the superchargers would be overwhelmed if all the Gen3's could use them. Since they aren't due until 2016-2017 it's hard to tell at this point.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Check out the last paragraph in this pdf a friend of mine sent me:



    I don't remember us having discussed this article before.
    1 Mar 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Here's more on the topic. Someday stuff. :)


    CalBattery licenses Argonne silicon-graphene material for high-energy Li-ion batteries; targeting commercial availability in 2014

    1 Mar 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, iin.


    We see so much someday stuff on this board, I figured that must be what this is.
    1 Mar 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Billa, It's all interesting but we know most of it will never make it. Hopefully some of this stuff we see will. We can use it.
    A industry rail meeting. Maybe NS will want to talk some about the NS999 here?


    ASLRRA 2013

    1 Mar 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Norfolk Southern Thoroughbred Mechanical Services
    is listed as a 2012 exhibitor.
    This sounds to me like the right group to know about us anyway.


    Assuming they do mechanical work for other companies they could do some initial ground work for sales.
    Hopefully by the end of April they will be thinking good thoughts about NS999.
    1 Mar 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Well, that didn't take long!


    Lawsuits claim fuel efficiency overstated in Ford C-Max, Fusion hybrids


    1 Mar 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • 03/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from NEW instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 21, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 21600, Vol 97540, AvTrSz: 4645
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3062
    # Buys, Shares: 7 25640, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3097
    # Sells, Shares: 14 71900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3050
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.80 (26.3% “buys”), DlyShts 200 (00.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.28%


    Well, today ended up sort of like I wondered about yesterday – low volume. And the range was also kept narrow by NITE starting the day bracketing both sides of the market with a “standard” 2.5K size with bid/ask of $0.3001/$0.31. At the open 2.7K shares traded at $0.31 and NITE presented an ask of $0.315. Bid moved to $0.3055 – I forgot who did it. Then ATDF did their usual “me first” and placed a 10K offer at $0.3099 at 9:50. Pretty much normal stuff thereafter with (mostly) ATDF trying to be both first in line and cheap at the same time.


    Although the low volume makes any traditional TA stuff somewhat “iffy”, I want to touch on a couple of things that I think are significant. We might have a “sneaky” climb back up going on, or ...


    Caution is warranted because a large, well-capitalized market-maker, like Knight Capital Management, has been controlling the bid/ask and may be “working” the price up to meet their own ends. I'll forgo the TFH stuff beyond that suspicion. I'll just remind that for several days now they have been establishing the early range with early narrow-spread entries on both the bid and the ask. Daily short sales have been extremely low. Of course, this has been quite common ever since we started seeing a single market-maker predominately occupying both sides of the market, including ATDF, TEJS, NITE, and occasionally UBSS. I think this suggests a lot of intra-broker trades or the MMs are short-term long.


    First, the potential descending support I began mentioning a couple days ago is holding – we topped and closed right on it AFAICT - $0.31 (actually, the close was $0.3099 but I can't nail the trend line price that precisely anyway). But it has been under attack for three consecutive days now and price range has not materially retreated. In fact, the lows have risen three consecutive days now. With the highs pretty much “flat” eight of the last ten days, this makes a rising triangle pattern. This breaks upward 70% of the time. However, this is a very short-term pattern so far and I don't know if it's behavior will follow the normal behavior. But with the two up days in the last three days both having higher volume than the down day, it seems there's a reasonable chance it will behave “normally”.


    Although the trend has been “choppy”, the oscillators I follow are trending up. Several have achieved at or near “neutral” readings, including RSI @ 51.52, momentum @ 1.033, and the stochastic %K up at 64.44 and moving towards a bullish indication at ~80, above which it suggests overbought, but often holds there for a while as price appreciation occurs.


    If we can just get some volume to come back while this is going on, I think we have some room to the upside.


    I want to mention again that we've a “golden cross” that will continue to show a widening between the 50-day SMA, currently $0.3166, and the 200-day SMA at $0.3125. If price doesn't retreat, we have at least 13 more days of a rising 50-day SMA. If there's any traders out there that respond to such stuff, the widening gap should catch their eye.


    Last, I've not recently looked at the MACD that DRich brought up some time back. Its histogram has been steadily improving since about the 19th and it's dead-nuts at neutral now, with the signal line about to cross above its average. The histogram low for this cycle did not go below the low of the prior cycle down, so I think the long-term up trend he identified is still in play.


    On my experimental stuff, average trade size is still around the low mid-point of what I believe is “retail”, but is haltingly trending towards more normal readings. Buy:sell remains stuck in low ranges, suggesting that someone is taking advantage of the price creeping up to both release a few shares and keep the price working up – it's not irrational buyer demand that's pushing price here.


    In spite of the above, if we ignore my TFH stuff, we have some positive things happening. The one I like the best is that intra-day VWAP continues to recover from its downward movement: $0.3214, $0.3054, $0.3080, $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932, $0.2973, $0.2992, $0.3015, $0.3059 and $0.3062. If any of the sellers wake up and smell the roses, they might be able to get some higher prices out of this trend. Another thing I like is maximum trade sizes suggest there are some careful buyers out there that are willing to soak up some shares at the current price levels: 20000, 22500, 22000, 9000, 15000, 10000, 5600, 12329, 24600 and 21600. I think some percentage of these folks are “strong hands”.


    The original version of my inflection point calculations continue to suggest nothing. One of my newer versions, the one I currently show in my instablog, is telling a story though. It says there is improving sentiment. The pattern is setting up quite similarly to what was seen shortly before the rising trading channel began in the middle of August and before the additional price bump that began around the end of the year. Of course, we were in the rising channel on that second item and ended a sideways trade when we “bumped” the rising support. We don't have that at the moment, but every trend has to start somewhere. It'll be interesting to see if the pattern matures and if price behaves accordingly.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    2 Mar 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • ACK! I think I confused events - exiting big uglies and rising trading channel.


    "rising trading channel began in the middle of August"


    s/b "rising trading channel began in the middle of November".


    3 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • New intra-day instablog up here.



    It includes links in the header to the new one-year snapshots and updated fails-to-deliver charts.


    2 Mar 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Connecticut Department of Energy & Environmental Protection


    February 27, 2013


    DEEP Announces First Round Results of Nation’s First Statewide Microgrid Grant and Loan Pilot Program


    27 of 36 project applications move to final funding round



    The "feasibility analysis" link has details on specific projects.


    Both of the ZBB related/referenced projects (that I know of, both associated with Schneider Electric) made it. Described here:
    (search for ZBB)

  (CTTransit Hartford)

  (UConn Depot Campus)


    I suspect Schneider carried a lot of the water/weight. Wonder if they may become a source of "financing" for ZBB at some point ...
    2 Mar 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Speaking of Microgrids ... a Forbes contributor takes a swing at the cost of merely planning one:


    D.C. Park Reveals the Gap Between Microgrid Promise and Reality