Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
  • Axion Power Concentrator 213: Mar. 3: Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications Norfolk Southern 296 comments
    Mar 3, 2013 8:58 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    13th European Lead Battery Conference, ELBC -- Sliderocket of John Petersen's presentation at the ELBC.

    Dr. Ender's Dickinson's Presentation on Axion's PbC -- Link to his slideshow at the 13th ELBC.

    Axion Power's 3rd Quarter Report and Press Release -- Seeking Alpha also published the transcript of the conference call here.

    RoseWater Joins Queen's University on Energy Storage Study -- Testing will determine the effects of residential energy storage systems on local power grids.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated thru 03/2/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    February came in with total reported volume of 3.1 million shares. To find lower monthly volume numbers we need to go back to October 2011 when volume was 1.8 million shares and November 2010 when volume was 2.6 million shares.

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (296)
Track new comments
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1260) | Send Message
     
    Me 1st
    3 Mar 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Second?

     

    Here I am!!!
    3 Mar 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    The FINRA shorts number for March is based on a single day's trading. While it currently sits as close to zero as I can imagine, I expect the number to rise into the 8% to 10% range as the month progresses. That expectation is still two full standard deviations from the 31.4% average we saw from January 2010 through October 2012, but I'm not looking for zero because some market maker shorting is essential to a liquid market.
    3 Mar 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Honda develops process to reuse rare earth metals extracted from old NiMH batteries for new NiMH batteries for hybrid vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/13zOqPN
    3 Mar 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    February 20, 2013 07:00 ET

     

    Electrovaya Announces Memorandum of Understanding With Major Asian Conglomerate

     

    MOU envisages minority investment in Electrovaya, joint marketing arrangement, Joint Venture opportunities and business co-operation in all other areas including material sourcing and project financing

     

    http://mwne.ws/VXMo7h
    3 Mar 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Here's the chart for the last month ... sobering for us????

     

    http://yhoo.it/VrcC35
    3 Mar 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I'd love to see that kind of press release from Axion.
    3 Mar 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Me as well. Wish we had someone in Axion that had connections!
    3 Mar 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1471) | Send Message
     
    That stock is so thinly traded, even by AXPW's standards. It must be a ghost town over there.

     

    How likely is it for an MOU to result in a deal?
    3 Mar 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    On the other hand....their chart looks a lot like AXPW for the past 9 months up to last week...maybe we will mirror them shortly! Does it trade in the US?
    3 Mar 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2239) | Send Message
     
    Axion had an MOU with XIDE if I recall correctly. Not a lot of legs on that deal.
    3 Mar 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    News story on e-power and axion partnership.

     

    http://bit.ly/XEUaT3
    4 Mar 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    That is very cool. I guess the tweaks worked.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, Thanks for making my day.

     

    For some reason yesterday I had a feeling something was coming today. It was that or I stubbed my toe?
    4 Mar 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Yayyyy!

     

    2013 is going to be a great year for Axion.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    """ Andy Claypole, ePower Engine Systems CEO, said, "We have worked with several types of batteries, including advanced lead-acid batteries, and have come to the firm conclusion that even VRLA or glass-mat batteries are not capable of sustained performance in this demanding application for over-the-road transport. They start out meeting specification, but their performance degrades significantly, often, requiring a complete replacement within a matter of months. The PbC batteries, on the other hand, are designed for sustained long-lasting performance geared for the life of our system, and the rigors of many charge/discharge cycles."

     

    Boom.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... My compliments to you for bridging the ePower-Axion gap.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I just made the introduction. The technical teams at Axion and ePower bridged the gap.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power's press release on ePower.

     

    http://bit.ly/13ByE6X
    4 Mar 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Other news services picking up the press release.

     

    http://on-msn.com/13BzRv8

     

    http://reut.rs/XEXYnw
    4 Mar 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Could this graph be correct showing Axion with 8.1 million in revenues for 2012?

     

    http://bit.ly/13BB19P
    4 Mar 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    The graph is supposed to be an annual revenue ramp but the numbers are off. Axion's historic revenue ramp has been

     

    2008 – $0.679 million
    2009 – $1.844 million
    2010 – $2.148 million
    2011 – $8.091 million
    4 Mar 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    No, that graph is a year behind. Their 2011 revenue was $8.1M. through Q-3 2012 their revenue stood at $8M and for Q4 we can expect NS sales, ePower sales and the lead acid sales as well as any others we may not be aware of.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP and jakurtz for your clarifications.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    "for Q4 we can expect NS sales"

     

    jak ... delivery of NS 999 batteries was announced in early January. That has lead me to look for the associated revenues in '13Q1.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, The press release was released in Jan but it reads, "Axion Power shipped the last skids that comprised this battery order to NS in late December..."

     

    Makes me believe they received final payment in Dec. before final shipment. Is it more typical to receive payment a couple weeks after shipping the goods in this scenario?
    4 Mar 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    According to the last 10-K, Axion books revenue "when there is persuasive evidence of an agreement, delivery has occurred or services have been rendered, the sales price to the buyer is fixed or determinable and collectability is reasonably assured."

     

    That means the NS sale should be a 2012 revenue event.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    jak, JP .... Thanks for the added info.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: Great news! Thanks!
    4 Mar 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jveal:

     

    Muchas gracias.-Carlos
    4 Mar 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    All right! Yea Team! Woo Hoo!

     

    First mover status goes to ePower!
    4 Mar 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    The fascinating thing is that the 50% improvement Granville mentioned as a short-term target matches the DOE's Supertruck goals.

     

    The 100% improvement ePower wants will crush the Supertruck goals.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2537) | Send Message
     
    "Our early testing has gone well and has demonstrated an ability to
    increase miles per gallon by more than 35%. We believe, and more importantly ePower believes, that with improved synergy of function between the proprietary hybrid drive train and our PbC batteries, that improvements in miles per gallon exceeding 50% can be achieved."

     

    I was wondering about this quote. It seems the initial projections of a 100% are being dampened.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Will people believe it? No mention of what conditions ... i.e., no mountains please. I think that's a mistake.

     

    UPOD ... under promise, over deliver.

     

    Spell out your niche, be specific, don't give people a reason to write you off before investigating you ... show some exactness that gives people confidence instead of suspecting you as being overly promotional like so many others they've seen over the years.

     

    Acknowledge their doubts even, and draw them in with facts and a well drawn story. Really wish there were "white papers" available right now. A contact number or email for ePower would have been nice to ...

     

    Notice there was no "About ePower Engines" section of the Press Release either. Of course you probably couldn't refer them to their web site (as would be the norm) ... at this point.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: Nah! (I hope). Just setting the bar lower so "beats" can be easier! ;-))

     

    Tom's learning? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2473) | Send Message
     
    I think the 100% number was for optimal conditions and the new numbers reflect the aggregate of the data. Exceeding 50% in the real world still seems impressive. Also there might be some strategic "under promising" going on here.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2537) | Send Message
     
    HTL - That would be great!
    4 Mar 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Good, not great, news. Not unexpected to us. But nothing to help assess the value "delta" at a time when we're so concerned about financing. No announcement of Truck Show appearances. ePower web site unchanged ... that is out of date and confusing. So if you're just now checking out AXPW for investment, you might be a little underwhelmed. Could Axion have hired/shared an intern to help ePower with their web presence ... just a little?

     

    So once again, much better than a sharp stick in the eye, but could have been done a lot better. Sure hope there's more promotion with some specifics to come soon. I actually think some specifics (rollout plans for example,) even if they're not super gonzo, are better than very high level generalities ... though you better meet what ever low bar you set.

     

    Remember that "exclusive" with Rosewater? So far, it hasn't paid off, has it? Not to say it won't, but I don't see the stock price taking off on this release. Reasonably deep pocketed potential investors probably read these kind of announcements with a jaded eye ... they've seen a million of them.

     

    Sorry to be Debbie Downer ... just trying to "keep it real." We've been patient ... I think we'll have to continue to be. It's hard ...
    4 Mar 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    I also would like to discuss the now 35-50% miles per gallon improvement.

     

    This is awesome but it is also lower than the 100% improvement originally mentioned.

     

    Would like to hear from Rick K to see if this is now believable.

     

    Would also like to see how this impacts the payoff period.

     

    D
    4 Mar 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7724) | Send Message
     
    I see it as a much more realistic number, and quite good enough to generate some real interest. Plus the fact that the PbC is in actual use in a real world product on a daily basis, delivering these results, should make people take notice of the potential.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2537) | Send Message
     
    I'm happy to see things moving forward, but the PowerCube has been in actual use on the PJM since November of 2011 ... Looking forward to actual results and hopefully John will be able to speak to the owner of the trucks and report his findings.

     

    P.S. - As John noted somewhere the other day, A123 would still be a company if they hadn't rushed things and incurred huge warranty obligations. Sometimes the tortoise is better than the hare.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • MitchS
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I concur with wtb. The cruel reality is that this announcement is effectively vaporware--no sales. Which points to the crueler reality that Axion has ZERO PbC sales.

     

    The stock is not broken, it cruelly reflects reality.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1260) | Send Message
     
    35-50% is much less of an outlier compared to other heavy hybrids--especially given the PbCs potential regen capability.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7724) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    I see this as a higher visibility application with easily understood real world benefits. Everyone understands lower fuel costs, and showing 35-50% fuel efficiency gains should get a lot more people looking at AXPW.
    5 Mar 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    D - I'd like to see some data. How many miles, how many trucks, base truck comparison, etc. A one hour ride does not extrapolate. A few thousand miles, eg, a week or two, at least might support their statement. The silence is deafening.

     

    Standard Truck A made ten round trips from point X to Y.
    Modified Truck B made ten round trips X-Y.

     

    Swap drivers, do it again. So maybe it takes a month.

     

    Total weight transported, truck A and B. Calculate tons miles per gallon. It is not rocket science.

     

    ePower has been discussed since November. Still no data that I know of. Hmmmmm....

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    5 Mar 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... I'm with you on getting some data and the likelihood of it existing is probable but done using the AGM LABs. (option 1) Those might have been such a maintenance problem that the data may not be relevant or (option 2) the company doing the road testing doesn't want to share or divulge for monetary reasons.

     

    I think if the PbC actually works the way we hope, then this sort of data I'm sure will be accumulated. Now whether it becomes public or retained for marketing ... I don't know. It will escape someday.
    5 Mar 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    It is irrelevant whether there is good data for AGM. AGM failed. End of story.

     

    The competition is a conventional truck, not an AGM-equipped truck.

     

    In conjunction with an operating truck company, it should only take a few weeks to generate data supporting (not proving) the PbC serial hybrid advantages. An easy Step 1.

     

    "Proof" testing is long and expensive, lots of caveats, eg, NS, BMW, etc. That is step 2. Let's see Step 1 first.

     

    If I was the trucking company, I would want to see Step 1 testing real soon, before I start wasting time and money on another vehicle.
    5 Mar 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... I was referring to AGM to conventional truck as being to only possible source of existing data. To satisfy your Step 1 I think we need to wait for the truck to be returned to the company to which it belongs. An event that might have happened in the past week, this week or next (I think it has been mentioned but I don't recall at the moment). I'd think what your looking for will exist by the end of April into May. As to whether it becomes public is just guesswork because ePower has said there are several companies awaiting delivery. I'd bet they aren't waiting to try what they think is a bogus claim.

     

    Kinda boils down to we are not part of the club or qualified sale contacts. When they move beyond the initial 10 trucks broadcasting the results will be imperative, but I don't think they will wait that long. It's a small company that will want to make as much noise as possible. I'm just glad to see the PbC move to a venue that is not behind the corporate curtain because I'm impatient to see some real world data (or any data at all) that says I haven't made a mistake.
    5 Mar 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    I think the golden moment will be when the PbC finally starts making money for somebody, anybody, doing actual work. Not testing, not a prototype, not some study mule, not a one-off demonstrator, but just somewhere in some application doing real workaday service for its owner--hauling some freight, stabilizing the grid, keeping the headlights on, whatever, just so long as there's some tangible revenue/$avings coming from it. DR's customer 1. I think that moment is real close now. ePower Truck#1 sure seems like the horse. And when that operator can report a few weeks' solid operations and show real dollar savings in his hand, then we're going to have our provenance. More will follow, surely, but that moment is what's going to divide past from future. When after nothing will ever be the same:

     

    Finally! PbC at work out in the wild, taking the strain, making somebody money.
    6 Mar 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (338) | Send Message
     
    Strong proof of the tech and capabilities no matter how to you cut it

     

    How long it takes to pay off in the potential marketplace and stock price is unknown - but more certain than ever that it will
    4 Mar 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Very good news, but hasn't done much so far to elevate the bid for AXPW.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Alphameister: Just shows we've been living too long in an HFT-dominated market environment. You post 6 minutes after the open and are disappointed that we've only been up as much as 1.646%!

     

    If we don't make $0.40 by 10:30, I'll be *crushed*! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Agree with MitchS and wtblanchard

     

    Effectively vaporware and most likely will have no effect of financing.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Well, later than I anticipated, but weren't we (me?) suggesting some time back that ePower would be the first big catalyst?

     

    I'm pleased.

     

    I think there's some implications in this "commenced a strategic relationship" for five years.

     

    I *suspect* that ePower has feedback from their customer(s) that already has additional sales almost a certainty. And soon too.

     

    So even though there's nothing here about direct financing for (AXPW), I believe we can see additional revenues quite quickly - next quarter? If that's the case, the need and amount of financing that may be required is substantially reduced. Further, if any financing is needed via share issuance, the risk seen by the financiers should be perceived as much reduced. That should reduce the discount, when combined with (expected?) improving financials.

     

    I'm I stretching this too far? Other things I've overlooked?

     

    On another front, Andy Claypole(sp?), said "They start out meeting specification, but their performance degrades significantly, often, requiring a complete replacement within a matter of months".

     

    Could this statement - the first I've seen by a user of VRLA/AGM acknowledging in a public forum the shortcomings of those items - have ripple effects into other industries? Auto? If so, things on that front might start to get interesting. Doubtful, but you never know until after the fact.

     

    Further, I think our negotiator dropped a clue for some near-term activity: "Granville emphasized that the hybrid drive train usage of PbC batteries is separate from, and in addition to, the use of PbC batteries for anti-idling purposes". I *suspect* this was more than just "we still have other applications possible". I *suspect* there may be some activity on that front to which Tom is privy that suggests another announcement in the not-too-distant future?

     

    With ePowers public "disparagement" of the VRLA/AGM units in his application and discussion of the fast charge times (almost certainly shared info with others in his industry?), the opportunity to run the ICs for even less time, and at optimal re-charge rates, when battery re-charge is needed has got to be on the minds of the APU manufacturers, truck manufacturers and end-users.

     

    Any additional thoughs?

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    HTL, if you don't know how to spell his name for sure, then he's not yet influential enough to be an "opinion leader" to the auto markets. Again, not to say he can't be one of these days, just that he isn't yet.

     

    I'm living in Missouri today :-)
    4 Mar 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I knew ePower was excited about the PbC's performance, but a five-year commitment from either party surprised me.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Yes, 5 years seems like a long duration agreement. ePower is a backwater company just like Axion but if they get the attention of truckers they will get the attention of the OEM's. The OEM's (and I'm guessing the DOT & DOE) will not be happy losing those sales & associated technological research edge. That would put a target on ePower to be bought to either squelch or incorporate the system.

     

    Question: Does this agreement, sans a buyout of ePower, lock Axion out of the trucking market for five years? Or, might it be limited to this specific hybrid configuration which is a patent unto itself?
    4 Mar 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Yes, that's the part I liked best about the press release. After everything they've gone through with the other LA battery chemistry it was reassuring that ePower had enough confidence in the PbC's performance to put their name on a 5 year exclusive contract.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I had the same reaction, HTL. The implication is that while car drivers might not make a big deal about the rapid degradation of their batteries for stop-start performance and the associated mileage benefits, battery degradation is a big deal for truckers whose bottom lines depend on sustainable optimal performance. If the PbC catches on for the trucking industry, there should be more pressure to make it part of automotive.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I was trying to dig out data about ePower Systems customer list as a gauge of potential future business for AXPW but have been unsuccessful. Do you have any information?

     

    thanks
    4 Mar 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Depends on what the meaning of is is :-)

     

    "exclusive use of Axion's PbC® batteries, and battery management systems, in all ePower retrofits and conversions."

     

    I could read it that it's one way ... ePower has to use Axion. Doesn't say Axion can't sell to others in Trucking.

     

    Lawyer time :-)
    http://bit.ly/13BMAOf
    4 Mar 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    Without access to the contract it's hard to say, but Tom has always been careful to include fairly stout minimum purchase requirements whenever he gives somebody exclusivity.
    4 Mar 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Thanks. I just wondered about the limitations. Of course, this could work out to be a bonanza for both companies if one or more OEM's decided to enter a license agreement with ePower. Then I would imagine the Axion exclusive would follow the system regardless of who uses it. The "sell the kit" model.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    It's a high value market filled with small to medium sized customers who are obsessive about controlling fuel costs. While an OEM will probably take a couple years before launching a product that carries their brand, there's a lot of room for earlier cooperation in the retrofit market. We were told that Vani has already made a couple of solid introductions so we'll just have to see where it goes from here.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I remember Tim writing about the "Glider" market.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: re the spelling - it's because my "memory" thought "Claypoole" and the article said "Claypole".

     

    So my CYA circuit kicked in because I was too pressed for time to go research. :-))

     

    But you make a point.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I interpreted it to mean ePower would use PbC exclusively foir 5 years and *maybe* that other retro-fit outfits couldn't, in worst-case scenario.

     

    I wonder which?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    It is Claypole, although I may have screwed up the spelling once or twice.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    HTL ... I have thought for some time that successful application of the PbC in ePower's truck would boost prospects/confidence in use of the battery for stop/start.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    "I'm living in Missouri today :-) "

     

    :-) You have company.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Kinda depends on what is meant by "retro-fit outfits". ePower is a development company that, if I'm remembering correctly, doesn't really want to build trucks but sell kits. Like Axion doesn't want to build batteries, both will when pressed but it isn't the ultimate business model.

     

    My read (and it's almost too dark in here be sure what I'm reading) is that the PbC follows the patented system wherever it may go. Sold with batteries included. It may lockout other development companies but then again how many other development retro-fitters have given Axion the time of day.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    Market credibility feeds off itself. With a half dozen testing programs everybody assumes they'll all fail. When one testing program advances to implementation, the other five begin to look far more likely. When a couple advance to implementation, people start to assume that they'll all succeed.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    :-) NS999 conversion from AGM to PbC followed by ePower uptake of PbC. Follow on orders from both and into of an OTR locomotive could provide real momentum.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I can't imagine that Axion or for that matter ePower would expect Axion not to sell into other trucking markets in configurations that don't compete with the EPower offering. There are other energy recovery systems that are, as we know, completely different than the ePower offering.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Yes, IIRC (PCAR) is using Eaton stuff for electric drive and/or hydraulic energy storage? I forget which, but they also have a (CPST) truck running around the track and another under construction. Somewhere in those scenarios I think batteries have a (large?) roll to play.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm familiar with the Eaton launch assist which is hydraulic. Also see Capstone working with Kenworth and Peterbilt but not as familiar with all the balls they might have up in the air.

     

    I suspect the tubine wants to run at a fairly consistent clip with some for of energy storage system handling the varying loads.

     

    Eaton:

     

    Hydraulic Hybrid Collection Truck

     

    http://bit.ly/XOtjoA

     

    Kenworth And Peterbilt:

     

    Capstone Turbine Announces Hybrid Concept Truck Programs With Kenworth, Peterbilt

     

    http://bit.ly/ZhQohK
    4 Mar 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    DRich: same though crossed my mind and then I told myself "Settle down"! Small bites at a time and I can finish dinner w/o choking on it. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    DRich: with them planning 12 builds this year and more next, I didn't know if their primary goal was kits or that was just a way to get conversions out faster (and cheaper?) to good customers with the capability.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "I suspect the tubine wants to run at a fairly consistent clip"

     

    Yes, maximum efficiency rpm. And spool up/down more than just a very small percentage takes time.

     

    That could change whenever the 370, with and high and low-pressure circuits, appears, but until then constant power is what should be the regime.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I'm sure ePower has a lot of process that needs to be refocused from how to get it built to how to sell it. Have to wait and see what they figure out.
    4 Mar 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Have we any idea as to the headcount at ePower?

     

    Without prejudice, I would not be surprised if the head count were to be less than 10.

     

    On the other hand, 1 Eienstein is easily worth scores of lesser mortals.
    4 Mar 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I think there were five bodies in the building when Brad and I visited, but there's no way to know whether there might be more.
    4 Mar 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    wt,
    How do you spell Duke's basketball coach's name again?
    4 Mar 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Coach K :-)

     

    And every basketball fan knows who you mean!
    5 Mar 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): If VWAP and/or close at EOD is >$0.3119, we will be trading above 200-day SMA on two important, to me, metrics.

     

    The Q for today is: sell the news?

     

    If so, I think we should see more intelligent folks willing to soak up the shares.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else think today's Axion-ePower PR is potential prelude to an ePower vehicle showing up at the Green Trucking Conference?
    4 Mar 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    I would hope so, but that wasn't in the PR...
    4 Mar 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    A basic question is, do they now work on the second truck or get a third ready for the big Truck Show?
    Do they have the resources to do both?
    4 Mar 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    How do the economics of an ePower retrofit work out if we use the "conservative" 35% mileage improvement figure?
    4 Mar 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano1401
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Based on the average annual fuel use figures on the ePower website, and using fuel cost of $4.00 a gallon, the annual savings would be about $30,000 which gives a payback (using an $80,000 cost) of well under three years. I think most truck owners would consider this a definite yes to do even with these numbers. I am interested to consider incorporating the batteries for use as standby power for hotel loads instead of idling the engine. That could be a deal clincher for rigs used in California.
    5 Mar 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    People keep forgetting that a standard overhaul cost $60,000. The hybrid system only cost $15,000-$20,000 more. The payback period is less than a year using your figures.
    5 Mar 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Ricknplano1401, Are you the same person as Ricknplano?

     

    Sorry for the question but I'm just making sure we don't end up with Yadoodle game players! ;)

     

    http://bit.ly/VBABwy
    5 Mar 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Fut ... my understanding of rebuild cost on class 8 tractors is it amounted to ~$70K in 2010 or 2011 and has crept up to ~$85K since. There is probably some variation in cost depending on engine size and make, but $60K for any of them sounds low.
    5 Mar 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I really like those numbers. "Which would you rather have sir – the rebuild that keeps you on the road for five years with your current cost structure or the one that keeps you on the road for five years with 35% lower fuel costs?"
    5 Mar 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    The only obstacle I can see is skepticism... many out there still might have a hard time believing a little electric motor and some batteries can really haul the freight like conventional diesel engines everyone knows and loves can.

     

    But once the real world experiences start to accumulate and the anecdotal testimony at the rubber/road level starts to multiply and reinforce itself, demand is going to grow geometrically.

     

    Nothing's going to be as convincing as real coins in the pocket coming from actual fuel savings.

     

    And when enough operators are out there to start jingling them, I'd say watch out.
    5 Mar 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >Renzo ... Damn close to 7mpg, which is the ultimate goal of the big DOE research project now underway. I think "tripleblack" is correct that ePower is attempting to Under Promise & Over Deliver. That would have diners across America buzzing when reports of more mileage were realized. Good advertising technique.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    8*P

     

    http://bit.ly/Y8RH0i
    4 Mar 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (508) | Send Message
     
    I liked the five year contract which I read as clearly obligating epower to utilize the PbC but there was nothing specific about the reverse. In my first read I focused on ePower's statement that the PbC is "competitively priced". This led me to think that ePower traded contract length and exclusivity for pricing. John, would you say competitively priced is a reference to AGM (btw Lithium Ion is never mentioned by name)? Would a high-end AGM be around the $450 number which I believe NS is paying as well?

     

    The other and perhaps most important thing that caught my attention was the reference to "...sustained long-lasting performance geared for the life of our system,..." To me that means ePower expects the PbC batteries to last for 5 years. That would make the economics of a 35% improvement work very well.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    ApMarshall: Recall that Tim posted some time back on prices for top-flight batteries (Optima?) from major names. They were in the same ballpark we *think* the PbC is in.

     

    That should suggest that initial pricing is at an attractive gross-margin point with price reducing as volume requirements are met.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    APM-
    The ePower website states, "your investment is further protected by a 5 year / 500,000 mile warranty."

     

    So they absolutely do expect the system to last 5 years. The text is probably dated, but that only explains why they dropped the AGM for the PbC :)

     

    Unfortunately, I fear for some time only manufacturers/businesses will be aware of the degradation of AGM batteries. Customers won't be as salient to that detail and so I do not count on OEM adoption (away from AGM technologies) unless regulation/lawsuits demand it. Whereas ePower requires a durable, long-lasting system, OEM auto will just want the cheapest sticker price to market.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    While automotive OEMs throw Nickels around like manhole covers, equipment OEMs are far more concerned with cost - value comparisons AGM doesn't stand a chance once the bean counters get involved.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    One audience in these differing markets looks mostly at the skin and the interior, the other under the hood. Playback vs payback? Toys or tools, take yer pick.

     

    ePower, Dis ain't no stinkin govment work. We deliver on Saturdays too! (Oh yeah, I know, The USPS is private!<snark>)
    4 Mar 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (856) | Send Message
     
    I'm a happy camper this morning. :) I suppose in the scheme of things, this could be viewed as just a small step. But I can’t help but think it brings Axion a whole lot closer to not burning through cash as it’s done. If this were to bring a dawning recognition to potential investors that this could eliminate the need for future stock issuances, then that alone would be huge, perhaps even a doubling in stock price.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (508) | Send Message
     
    My concerns relate to the lack of order information. This doesn't give any reason at all to expect orders beyond the one/month number John provided. This is a nit, but the expectation that ePower has that they can tweak their software to increase the improvement from 35% to 50% indicates that they are probably months away from being able to sell commercial units. Of course it looks like we can run our economic calculations on the 50% number and 50% for 5 years could be a game changer for the trucking industry in the Eastern half of the U.S.
    4 Mar 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall: Don't forget the "tweaking" is likely software changes. This has two implications: 1) Installed kits can be upgraded with an EEPROM (still use these?) re-burn and, 2) customization for route-specific demands.

     

    This second item has *huge* implications for fixed-route units in the area of what gains might be achievable.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >apmarshall62 ... Consider this. If ePower can get a Class8 truck to 7 mpg (more ?) on the first rattle out of the box it will be a marketable product. Improvements will be forth coming because I don't think a guy that has been tinkering with this device for 20 years will stop anytime soon. Norfolk Southern has been fiddling with the PbC for 3 years now (with a lot of engineers & money) and just settled on the system being "perfected" less than a year ago.

     

    I think there is room to run on the efficiency. Engineers don't stop "improving" something just because it works fine as is.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    >DRich, modern trucks (2010 or newer) already get around 7 mpg over the routes ePower is running. Apply your math (35-50%) to 7 mpg and you should be in the ballpark for what the industry is looking for...
    4 Mar 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4454) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... My bad, sorry. I just had it stuck in my head that the Class 8 mpg was 5. Upward revision is always better. Still, ePower is saying it can do that 35% now.

     

    Thanks
    4 Mar 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Working from 7 mpg, that "more than 35%" puts ePower truck mpgs in the 10 mpg neighborhood.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Tim: Do you recall the brand/model and price of those batteries you posted about some time back?

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Ran some rough figures based on recollection that cost of refit was $70,000, also assumed improvement in fuel mileage of 35% in each scenario, $4.00 per gallon and 120,000 miles per year.

     

    Scenario 1:
    Old fuel mileage of 5.5 mpg. New fuel mileage 7.42.
    Old consumption 21,818 gal New Consumption 16,172 gal
    Savings in gallons 5,645
    Savings in $'s 22,584
    Approximate Payback period: 3 years 45 days

     

    Scenario 2
    Old fuel mileage of 7mpg New fuel mileage 9.45
    Old consumption 17,142 New consumption 12,698
    Savings in gallons 4,444
    Savings in $'s 17,776
    Approximate Payback period: 4 years
    4 Mar 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2203) | Send Message
     
    Stable diesel price of $4 over 5 years is a big assumption:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/163zYPg

     

    Payback could be even sooner if the trend up resumes.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Good numbers to think on but there is also the savings in air pollutants, noise pollution when the truckers are in their rest stops and the convenience of being able to park overnight within a municipality that will not allow the truck to idle all night.

     

    This is a mini announcement on the one hand cause its only a handful of batteries but on the other hand its huge because no other company has this proven technology and every trucker heading for a refit will soon know that there is a technology that may well make his life easier and save him money.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (508) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget the refit has to be done anyway and it costs nearly the same amount.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    I have a low sloping forehead and I've already outlived my life expectancy by 20 years and you want me to make more complicated future assumptions? I've also removed my tinfoil hat.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2203) | Send Message
     
    Don't you have the Home, Student and Caveman version of Excel?
    4 Mar 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall: I got to thinking (always dangerous) ...

     

    For smaller trucking outfits, cash to do what's needed is often an issue. The "value added" to a re-fit should make financing available easier to obtain, as well as cheaper (if a re-po has to be done, the item has higher re-sale value, lower risk to the lender).

     

    Any thoughts on this and/or effects if my assumption correct or not?

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Smaturin,
    Yes, it is called stick on cave floor. It took a long time to draw all those tally marks with those large numbers.

     

    Good point on having to do refit anyway apm. If refit is same cost, I should just delete my post. Sheez all that work for nothing.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    Metro: I enjoyed your attempt a running some numbers. However, I think those numbers should represent a 50% fuel savings, as that's the goal that is expected to be achieved.

     

    So basically, we should be figuring going from 7 mpg, to 10.5 mpg.

     

    My belief, because of the fantastic jump in domestic oil production last year, about 12%, and the largest annual increase since something like 1859, is that US diesel prices won't be going up that much in four or five years. I believe there's a decent chance that there will be an unrefined oil glut waiting for us just a few years out, that is, until domestic refinery capacity is increased.

     

    So $4.00 per gallon is a fair and conservative estimate of future fuel costs. Caveats of war, natural disasters, etc., not included.

     

    So my numbers would be as follows for an estimated ROI, based on 120,000 miles per year, with a $70,000 retrofit cost:

     

    120,000 miles / 7 mpg X $4.00 = $68,571 of fuel cost

     

    120,000 miles / 10.5 mpg X $4.00 = $45,714 of fuel cost

     

    The difference is $22,857 of estimated annual savings. Or, an estimated 32.65% ROI per year.

     

    That's a HUGE ROI number!

     

    And if diesel prices escalate, or the 50% savings becomes 60%, the ROI gets "huger."

     

    But just with these numbers, we're talking a three year payback, with the final two years being "house money."

     

    Finally, these estimates are for the PbCs lasting five years. What if they last 7 years or 8 years?
    4 Mar 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Oil now trading below $90.00/barrel.

     

    Even with reduced diesel prices the savings with the e-power alternative makes sense.

     

    Question that comes to my mind is what happens when 5 years pass after the e-power refit? Is it a total replacement of the drivetrain and the batteries or just the batteries?
    4 Mar 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Albert: with refinery capacity reduced and some pricing off of Brent rather than WTI, don't look for much effect on refined product prices, which includes gas, diesel, heating oil, ...

     

    We'll be heading into the driving season as well so even as refineries come on line, prices will have a trend up, if historical patterns repeat.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    To what extent might the time-table for a retrofit be advanced once there is a realization of a 50% mileage benefit to be attained? Do you think OEMs might get a message when customers start arranging for their new trucks to get retrofitted for a 50% mileage improvement?
    4 Mar 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    The average price of diesel nationwide in January, was $3.91.

     

    Link below breaks down diesel costs by US regions:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Md6CG2
    4 Mar 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    " Working from 7 mpg, that "more than 35%" puts ePower truck mpgs in the 10 mpg neighborhood"

     

    And if I recall, John posted in the past that he spoke to the owner of the company, who has been testing the current demo, and he was claiming mpg in the 10 mpg range. Which makes more sense if you are going up from 7mpg to 10 mpg than it did at the time when we were seeing it as a 100% increase.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Yes refineries will switch from heating oil to gasoline but I wonder what the impact might be on diesel?

     

    Is there a significant seasonal diesel price change in the US?

     

    Is $4.00/gal a valid benchmark to be used for the e-power solution?
    4 Mar 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: He probably does but probably lent it to Tim Geitner, who's' not returned it because he's trying to suss TurboTax.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Albert: Now you're beyond my generalized knowledge. But I do rcall hearing complaints for a long time that as gasoline moves up, so does diesel. Tim probably has better info on that though.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Albert,
    I am in California in the trucking industry. We have to figure fuel price each week by averaging the price at 3 fuel stations in our area. We haven't been below $4.00 a gallon for 6 months and are currently at $4.49 (average). It does fluctuate, but figuring $4 a gallon is a good rule of thumb figure (even if on the low side).
    4 Mar 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Yeah, it is hard to have a benchmark on fuel mileage. I started one scenario with 5.5 as that was the figure given on the epowersystems website, so thought potentially this was the number they were working with.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    HTL: It was the PC-2150 from EnerSys which were the ones used in the NS 999 first try. Also, the Lifeline grp 31 which I consider to be better than the PC-2150...
    4 Mar 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    The 120k miles per year is a good number but as we see the rails taking on some of the Solo driver freight I would also have a look at the Team miles which you can double (and then some). I am speculating that the only real (large quantity) Solo freight that will be around 5 years from now will be specialty freight and they will be competing with teams (we have been trending this way)...
    4 Mar 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Tim: I wasn't thinking of the NS-999 ones - ISTR that you had mentioned some top-flight batteries you had used with prices that weren't that doggone far from our estimated PbC prices. Somewhere in the $3xx.xx range?

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    Just out of curiosity Tim, what does the typical driver's schedule look like in terms of drive time, coffee breaks, lunch breaks and overnight breaks? I know there are a ton of regulations but an insider's view of "typical" could be very helpful.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Those two are the ones. The EnerSys PC-2150 is considered the best that money can buy...
    4 Mar 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    John, the HOS are 11 hours of driving within a 14 hour period requires a 10 hour break. An 0800 start on a cross country trip would have you parking at 1900 with a resume at 0500. This would repeat until you get to the destination. Note: the breaks in the driving get added to the 14 hour window.

     

    The above is a pretty aggressive schedule and will burn you out so they limit the hours to 80 hours in 7 days. You can reset with a solid 34 hour break and you are back at it again.

     

    I did NOT run this way. I worked by the piece so I gave them 500 miles a day (8-9 hours) and then took the rest of the day off. This kept me under the 80 in 7 days rule so I could run forever. The high paying loads always come when you are out of hours. Slow and stead was how I made my money...
    4 Mar 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    So how much time did you typically spend behind the wheel between stops for a cup of coffee or the call of nature?
    4 Mar 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    "So how much time did you typically spend behind the wheel between stops for a cup of coffee or the call of nature?"

     

    That is all over the place John and varies per driver per load (urgency). I set my own pace and drove for 2 hours and took a 15-30 min break. I had coffee and meals in the kitchen in my truck (most trucks don't have kitchens).

     

    On the other side of things some drivers stop only for fuel and eat and coffee before and after the 11 hours of driving. This is insane and will put on 10lbs a week and you will be a pile of jello at the end of your 80 but some people do it.

     

    Its governed by the pressure the drivers feel to make money and also by the load planners pushing them to get to the other end. Its sad and unfortunate for those who "feel" they have to run hard...

     

    Edit: Teams run pretty much non-stop with breaks squeezed in there where they can. Also, if you are looking for a mileage limit use the 80 hours in 7 days with a 60 mph transit time.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Tim!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    Since ePower only deals with rebuild situations when truck engines, transmissions, suspension, etc. are replaced and updated, isn't an appropriate old fuel consumption rate probably ~5.5 - 6.0 mpg presently? Truck operators now will be presented the choice of a conventional rebuild using a new ~7 mpg engine or conversion to hybrid with >9.45 mpg for roughly the same $70K cost, all though conventional rebuilds have reportedly edged toward ~$85K.

     

    Considering the ePower option, truck operators rebuilding their vehicles appear to have the option of choosing between

     

    1. convention upgrade with new more fuel efficient diesel capable of ~7 mpg with new consumption of 17,143 gallons vice old engine consumption of 21,818. Annual fuel savings of 4,675 gal. could be realized worth $18,700 with a payback period of 3.75 yrs on $70K.

     

    2. conversion to ePower hybrid with fuel efficiency of >9.45 mpg using 12,698 gals. or less per year vice old engine fuel consumption at the rate of 21,818 gal/yr. Annual fuel savings of 9,120 gals worth $36,480 are implied suggesting a payback period of 1.9 yrs. assuming conversion cost of $70K.
    4 Mar 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, too add to what you have written, the older trucks will not be allowed in certain areas of the US because of their age. They will need to become EPA 07 or EPA 10 compliant with their rebuild (DPF/DEF) or they will need to have an alternative power train (ePower)...
    4 Mar 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • brianfscott
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    yes, except it is 70 hours in 8 days.
    5 Mar 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Brian, thanks for the correction, had those flopped...
    5 Mar 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (654) | Send Message
     
    Its good to hear Axion chatter for a change rather than everything else!

     

    A little more brisk trading this morning with 101,000 shares and only 700 shares below .31.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW) Through 11:08: VW Avg. Tr. Pr: $0.3131 and Buy:Sell 24.31:1.

     

    This last metric is unlikely to hold, but if the sellers wake up and realize what's happening, the first metric could appreciate substantially.

     

    Do computers sleep? ;-)) How about their (ostensible) "masters".

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    What I like most about today's press release is that Claypole spoke of how the PbC is price competitive.

     

    Could this mean that the price of a PbC has come down? Has there been some tweaking to production, or COGS? While not affecting margins?

     

    If so, then just maybe this could translate into other applications, such as the PowerCube, and for our Asian OEM and BMW.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    I was most intrigued by two things -- 1) that there was a PR and 2) that the PR referenced an Axion BMS as well as PbCs.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    So, is the BMS what took so long? Do you suppose they tried it without the Axion BMS and then decided to let the Axion BMS handle things? this would explain the timeline for me...
    4 Mar 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    That is pretty much my read, Tim. Also, I noticed that the PR cited 56 PbC batteries versus the 60 PbCs ePower was using initially.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: My thinking was that it's 56 + 4 = 60. The 4 would be for the APU.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Tim, My read as well. They indicated they were sneaking up on the PbC batteries to squeeze more out of them. Makes sense. You want to monitor certain conditions while you tax them more and more. Plus capacitor/hybrid devices work differently than pure electrochemical devices.

     

    Not many jump on a dirt bike and tape the throttle wide open! Might be fun though..........to watch through the space between the fingers covering your face!
    4 Mar 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    II
    Do you suppose we could get a PR for every 10% improvement or so? :-)
    4 Mar 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, Maybe not. Don't want to hog the press. ;)

     

    Besides, We're already in great territory.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    "Not many jump on a dirt bike and tape the throttle wide open! Might be fun though..........to watch through the space between the fingers covering your face!"

     

    Tape? real men use a zip tie...
    4 Mar 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    It's also a peculiar fact to me that just one Peterbilt retrofit generates almost the same revenues as the entire Naval installation did last year.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Interesting that the source of our future revenue growth looks completely different than it did 6 months ago.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    metro: Agreed. It's almost like having a new girlfriend to figure out. ;-)
    4 Mar 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2537) | Send Message
     
    Not to take the focus off of Axion, but I also noticed this Project Estimating Tool from ZBB this morning. Thought some people might like to mess around with it.

     

    http://bit.ly/Za5B36

     

    It appears to be powered by Homer Energy:

     

    http://homerenergy.com
    4 Mar 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: NP. We just crossed above ZBB pps w/o any firm contracts or sales in hand on 10x their volume so far today.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    We have to remember that ePower is only planning to make 12 this year and 40? next. While it's 'only retrofits' and the income starts small it's a lot of validation when bigger things come in.
    Such as NFC
    The question of; OK they got this contract but is it a single use item?
    Is there something specific about trains that makes it useful in that case but is there some other problem I don't know about?
    The tech guys would know but the average investor? I don't think he/she would.
    I know I have turned away from investments as I couldn't make the necessary evaluations of the product. There were others I did get into as I could see a wide acceptance of the product developing.

     

    While BMW would be an immediate win; NFC My first reaction would have been, Oh that's nice.
    With out further contracts I probably would have ignored Axion.
    Now it's they've got this power cube thingy in testing both residential an commercial.
    They have a 5 yr (That's a long time) retrofit market. (Retrofit market how big is that? I'm not sure.) Now they've got a deal with NFC?
    Lets see it's a penny stock??? A penny and just made a deal with NFC?
    What's it's income? Not much. But what about those contracts?
    All in 6-8 months???...... What?? ...Really?...A P&D scam?
    Wait not with NFC?

     

    I think I'm going to spend the rest of the day on this.... Axion?
    At least tha'ts the way I'd think about it.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Froggey: "They have a 5 yr (That's a long time) retrofit market".

     

    Umm, no. They have a *repeating* 5-year cycle retro-fit market until all the new units sold start coming with such a set-up (or an alternative that yields similar performance).

     

    Remember 1MM miles is common with re-builds along the way. Each one that gets to "time to re-build" status is a potential conversion candidate.

     

    This market will be here for AXPW for a long time.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Froggey: "We have to remember that ePower is only planning to make 12 this year and 40? next".

     

    Best-laid plans of mice and men ...

     

    I'll take a dozen Dunkin' & a cup of joe they end up doing more. Strong demand by large(er) customers with cash in-hand have been known to change plans.

     

    With gas prices doing what they're doing, and diesel prices usually being in lock-step, the *immediate* benefits to the ePower customers will be such that customer demand will pressure ePower to re-evaluate quickly. This becomes more and more likely as the reliability and benefits of the early units increase confidence.

     

    The key, IMO, is that ePower has to have confidence in what they have produced *and* that they can increase their output, maybe just a little bit, without risking quality and results.

     

    Plus, don't forget "The Kit" - that enables a higher conversion rate by the end-user w/o a commensurate load on ePower resources (manpower, workspace, cash burn, ...).

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    I would think that companies like FedX and UPS would want to reduce their fuel cost by 35%+ ASAP...
    4 Mar 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2473) | Send Message
     
    HT,

     

    It's nice to see someone excited (rather than mildly amused) about this news. I hope others outside the SA Axionistas see it your way as well and bid up the stock. If the ePower numbers come in double what they are projecting then we'd be talking near 5000 batteries next year. That would be much more than chump change just from this one relationship.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Bazooooka: I was trying to suppress display of my excitement. "FAIL"!

     

    I'm really more pleased that you and I "sensed" a potential bottom at the same time and price began inching up subsequently. That may be much more telling than a 1-3 day "bump" from news. If two different folks with different "sensors" get the same feeling, we might have some good success projecting things going forward.

     

    OTOH, it might be a one-off. :-((

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    HTL I wasn't clear
    I meant ISTM for someone in the retrofit market to sign up for an exclusive agreement for 5 years seems like a long time with all the changes in electronics and batteries.
    That to me speaks of long term confidence in their commitment.
    4 Mar 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3991) | Send Message
     
    NFC? Did you mean to reference NSC (Norfolk Southern)?
    4 Mar 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    D
    Yup my error
    4 Mar 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    OK, doing my part to help the pps. Just bought more at the ask.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Oh Drat! Just hit $0.32 on decent volume.

     

    I just hate when I have to turn away from the paint.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    I am really uneasy about this. Good news and price is increasing? Something isn't right and is smelling worse than my drain.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    metro: Breathe easy brother! It's *with* volume. And sellers have taken the unusual step of raising the ask - best was, briefly, $0.3245 by MM BNCH until NITE stepped in again.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: And NITE is supporting by being on the bid @ $0.315.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Not the usual metric, but intra-day VWAP $0.3144 so far vs. 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day intra-day VWAP SMAs:
    $0.3054, $0.3012, $0.3141, $0.3169, $0.3006 and $0.3112.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Currently trading above my traditional TA potential falling resistance ~$0.312.
    4 Mar 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I fell off the wagon and bought more AXPW--in the morning, no less.

     

    As my sponsor, what do you recommend?

     

    Renzo
    4 Mar 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    I too had a nibble.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Renzo: Admission is the first step.

     

    Other than that, I try to avoid recommendations. With trading just now at $0.333 and b/a $0.3245/$0.3329 (UBSS/ATDF) "late" in the day, rather than the usual late-day weakness, I do believe at least another day or two up might be possible.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Not looking for a buy/sell recommendation. Just publicly acknowledging my Axion problem. :-)

     

    Renzo
    4 Mar 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    I was very pleased with the announcement this morning. I especially liked Claypole's comments about how Axion batteries compare to the others they've worked with.

     

    Just bought some more shares.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    When AXPW had the run-up early this year in response to news of a delivery to NSC, I commented that the pps rise was disproportionate to the value of the news announcement and was probably due to many thousands of NSC shareholders discovering AXPW for the first time via a very bullish description of Axion in connection to the minor news announcement. Today's news has much more substantial value, but relatively few new eyeballs in comparison to the NSC news. I'm guessing that its positive impact will be less ephemeral than the NSC announcement.
    4 Mar 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Alpha: "but relatively few new eyeballs in comparison to the NSC news. I'm guessing that its positive impact will be less ephemeral than the NSC announcement".

     

    The "new eyeballs" might be an underestimation, based on the immediate number of feeds that picked up the story this A.M.

     

    And if not, there's still a lot of folks that may have been waiting for something perceived as positive, at least for the long-term, that might decide to move in.

     

    The real question is how many profit-takers do we have in play at this price level, I think.

     

    We have no way to know.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    If the float is as locked down as tightly I believe it is, the odds are good that profit takers will be few and far between. Now we're getting to a point where we'll see just how strong the Axionistas are.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    The feed may go out to an equal potential audience, but how many are likely to read about two small, unknown companies striking a strategic alliance when the headline doesn't even mention a possible 50% fuel savings? When one of the companies is a giant, such as NSC, and the feed appears on every brokerage website that covers NSC, I submit that actual eyeballs (as opposed to potential eyeballs) would likely to be much greater.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Alpha" ... but how many are likely to read about two small, unknown companies striking a strategic alliance when the headline doesn't even mention a possible 50% fuel savings?".

     

    A good question. I respond with "How many elephant hunters are out there"?

     

    No way to know.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Has taken much less volume to get AXPW from 31 to 34 today than it did on January 7th, so obviously a lot less stock for sale now.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Surprise!!!!!!!!!
    4 Mar 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Alpha: "... so obviously a lot less stock for sale now".

     

    My take is "at this price level" and it's "for the moment". Buyers come in and push price up, increasing supply at ever-higher price.

     

    I hate to nit-pick, but I try to remember that we've had a lot of presence by Knight Capital Management and, today, they have responded for the first time by raising the asks. But they still show "standard" 2.5K offers, suggesting there's more behind it.

     

    When we see "real" offers that are not 2.5K, there's a chance that that's the real quantity available from them at that price.

     

    Remember that they don't have to show all their cards, per SEC rules, so they can lead with small *presented* quantities even if they have 1MM shares sitting there ready to go.

     

    To me, this move is *all* buying presence and a normal response to it by the sellers. Buy:sell seems to support that: through 15:28 18.29:1.

     

    I think that's a *good* thing, so far.

     

    HardToLolve
    EDIT; supporting my thought: 14.4K just went at $0.335 while NITE had 10K (a multiple of 2.5K) *presented* bid at $0.335. After the trades, 10K *still* presented by NITE and no one else was there, unless I missed them.
    EDIT again: plus 11.6K more and finally *presented" drops to 2.5K by NITE.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    This is one of the pbc uses that actually earn the buyer the investment in contrast to the household powercube. This is one of the main reasons I bought AXPW and still hold it (a bit easier as I am in the+) and regarding some recent discussion I never thought it is the business of small (which most here are) investors to "massage" the stock price upwards... it is the business of managment to deliver on promises...
    4 Mar 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    I can't project if price is going to increase over the next few days, although I hope it does, but I keep thinking about how you had the intestinal fortitude to buy those shares at .20, and I was like "poor old Goebbels" at the time. Nice pick up.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    Metro, And thus the elephant is skinned, parted and last time I looked pretty well consumed. All due to the sharp knife funds!

     

    Now it's time to run off a little of the excess before another bite. However, Alas that last bag wasn't labeled. Might be the best part but we're a cautious bunch!
    4 Mar 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): Something we haven't touched upon, for the numbers runners ...

     

    They are using an Axion-supplied BMS. There's value there. IS Axion selling the "system" or components and adding their software?

     

    Either way, we should expect per-system price to be more than just the batteries. If Axion sells the "system", we get at least a small margin on the hardware components plus the value of the management software.

     

    Otherwise, just the software. Either way, we should expect revenue beyond our estimated batteries-only price.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    EDIT: And near-term, revenues from engineering and consulting services s/b in the cards for this (and prior?) quarter.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Great news about the 5 year contract.

     

    For those who don't remember our past conversations the Total class 8 truck market for retrofitting is about 1 Million per year. The hybrid system will only be used in trucks that run routes on the flatter terrain, so the market is some unknown percentage of 1 Million. Using a 1% rule for early adopters gets us to 10,000 trucks at 60 batteries each. I bet it will take e-power several years to be able to produce and sell 27 units per day, every day of the year.

     

    But I buy stocks with growth potential. This looks like real growth potential to me.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    The one big advantage I see with ePower as opposed to NS or BMW is that ePower has a very strong incentive to get its name out in the public eye and try to hold attention on what they're doing. The big boys want to keep everything triple secret. I think ePower will want to raise a ruckus.
    4 Mar 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    JP: As long as they don't do it by starting a fire with our batteries!! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    What the hell! Who turned my monitor upside down? The AXPW chart is rising! Oh... Wait...
    4 Mar 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    It's also on Green Car Congress!

     

    http://bit.ly/zcveTs
    4 Mar 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    Evil me wants to forward today's press release to XIDE's CEO.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Chances are, Maya, that it might be the 20th he's received today! :)
    4 Mar 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Maya: Even "eviler" me is sure he's seen it! }:->>

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Any idea about who are ePower's customers? Just to get an idea about the size of the retrofit market share they have in the US...
    4 Mar 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the number is less than 10.

     

    Soon to be 1,000's.

     

    My humble opinion........ after all, I'm just a retired construction worker sitting on a rock 700 miles east of the US of A.
    4 Mar 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    Their old presentation identified seven fleet operators that had expressed an interest in buying test units. It would be inappropriate for me to disclose names or numbers, but several of the names are well known.
    4 Mar 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1494) | Send Message
     
    Thank you :)
    4 Mar 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    JP
    Oh really!
    My mental scenario was, we wouldn't get anyone big this year.
    Big defined as having a steady need for retrofits with their own shop and mechanics to train with ePower. Who will then do kits back 'home'.
    That was my hope for; "By the end of next year...."
    4 Mar 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    JP: I know you can't respond, but I'll lay a buck on Swift for starters.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    HTL betting dollars to donuts? ;-)
    4 Mar 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    What a crappy day! Finished up only 8.10%.

     

    How's a bloke supposed to make any $ that way?! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    If I recall correctly, the best thing about E-Powers system is that they use off the shelf parts to build their system. It will be much easier to ramp up that type of system as opposed to manufaturing their own parts.

     

    Bu that one is from memory and I could be dead wrong about it,
    4 Mar 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: Our memories match: A Deer diesel, a top-of-the-line industrial motor are the core components.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I think it's safe to say that ePower could probably sell retrofits as quickly as they can build them with their limited current facilities and staff.
    4 Mar 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Just how do penny stock analysts go about their jobs? Do they rely on market sentiment news? Do they rely on tips etc from previous months? Do they react to news by price? Maybe its by sector? I wonder if any do fundamental analysis.

     

    No-one of any importance appears to follow AXPW now.

     

    I suspect that 12 months from now the situation will be much different.
    4 Mar 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Albert: I expect that tomorrow several of the penny-stock rgs will be all over AXPW because of the 8%+ move.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) | Send Message
     
    Fingers crossed!!!

     

    I don't expect a lasting relationship but rather a little note that they may well recall a few months from now.
    4 Mar 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    "ePower Engine Systems has consented to a five year initial term with Axion Power that includes the exclusive use of Axion's PbC® batteries, and battery management systems, in all ePower retrofits and conversions."

     

    I'm a bit perplexed as to just what the term "exclusive use" means exactly in this case... I am also wondering a bit about the word "consented" which just seems a little curious...why not use the phrasing "entered into an agreement" rather than "consented", which, I don't know, just sounds like it reflects tension somehow, like the relationship is somewhat adversarial rather than fully cooperative. I know I'm probably making too much of it, but still wonder...

     

    Anyway, what's our best take, if we have one(?): Is it that ePower can/will use *only* our Axion PbC's in all of its retrofits or that *only* ePower can use PbCs (and no one else can) for these or similar applications?
    4 Mar 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8971) | Send Message
     
    48. We need to send TG to a special workshop like Shakespearean marketing. That or thou doth protest too much, methinks.

     

    Anyway, there's always the cc but with the added ANALyst's we Axionist's only get so much time. Just wait until the damn thing hits the multi-USD range/share and then they'll never take our questions! Then we'll really have something to b^&%h about!
    4 Mar 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (751) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that they got a "good price" for the benefit of Axion being able to highlight "Axion's PbC® batteries Inside". The "glory" will have to be shared by ePower.

     

    "We thought of it" and "We couldn't do it without them" are very different.
    4 Mar 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29668) | Send Message
     
    I think you'll find the attitude from ePower will be "we thought of it but we couldn't do it without them."
    4 Mar 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    48: "consented". Sort of like interactions in real life? Both parties "want it", but only one "consents"? ;-))

     

    I know, I know ...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3337) | Send Message
     
    HTL, it just struck me as intriguing. ;) The courtship connotations seem definitely there. I'm happy about the announcement for sure, but can't help the feeling that it's only initial and not complete. Obviously lots more flesh to put on the bone going forward...
    4 Mar 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17451) | Send Message
     
    Well, since the "failure" of standard AGM/VRLA in high DCA applications is "in the wild" now, I figure BMW, or their ilk, ought to be writing the "hook" for the ad campaign that ought to follow shortly.

     

    "Quality in your s/s system? Only BMW makes a battery rugged enough for the most demanding truck applications *standard* in your 5xxe. Peace of mind through reliability while saving the planet".

     

    Well, what do you expect - I'm not even a hack!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Mar 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (701) |