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  • hi


    Edit: beat the link:)
    13 Mar 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Congrats Pascquale.
    13 Mar 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Henrik Fisker quits Fisker Automotive:

    13 Mar 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • Miss Congeniality with an iPad.
    13 Mar 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Jeez. I don't get around to reading the APC for a couple days and the mood really seemed to turn for a few folks. I on the other hand am more excited than ever. After the ePower PR I bought some more. I have a neighbor who runs a hedge fund. I got him interested in Axion a while back and he has been adding here and there. He asked me what I thought about the PR and I told him I was more excited about it than I am about BMW.


    Reason is this; Imagine later this year when a few of their conversions are on the road. Those owners start telling their driver buddies how much less fuel they're using. Those guys tell some other guys and so on. Word of mouth in the truck driver world will be a huge catalyst for future growth, IMO.


    As for delays in PR, etc. I'm not worried at all. I've been an IT project manager for years and nothing ever goes as planned. I'm running a multi-million dollar project now that we are delaying a couple months so we can get it done correctly. No different in the battery world of that I am sure.


    Should be an interesting year without a doubt.
    13 Mar 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Great post, alsobirdman.


    Thanks for getting your hedgy neighbor into AXPW. That is really cool. Congrats.
    13 Mar 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Alsobirdman,
    I doubt that it will take conversions on the road to make the case for more sales. Imagine the owner of ten trucks calling his buddy who owns twenty. And he says "Hey, I just made 80% more profit because I'm driving hybrids."


    When the data is out , and proves what ePower claims, there will be no shortage of information passing through an industry. Off the shelf parts means ePower can ramp quickly. I like this business plan alot. Can we please release the magic numbers now? Please Axion. Please ePower? Throw a simple minded shareholder a bone.
    13 Mar 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • >Futurist ... I think the best we could hope to learn is if the first truck had been returned to the owner. That would make a good first step but I'll not hold my breath waiting on that information either. After all, ePower is private and owes the public even less information than Axion. Wait for the quarterly's, as we always have, to see if it can be gleaned.
    13 Mar 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Yes DR,
    I know its a private company, privately owned truck, NDAs, Axion double secret probation PR program, etc. I just want a bone, thats all. A little teeny tiny toe bone. Not much. Just something before April 15th.


    "If I wish upon a star"
    13 Mar 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Alsobirdman
    I concur with you 100%. As a retired project engineer who ran multi million dollars engineering/construction projects, there were always problems and delays. Solving problems were part of the job. Since we had hard dead line, we worked around the clock to minimize any delays.


    However, BMW, NS, E-Power do not have hard dead line. Therefore, we just have to wait.


    If PbC does not work, BMW, NS, E-Power would have drop AXPW in a heart beat.


    All these negative talk is a joke. For those who do not believe in this stock, just sell your shares. I will be glad to buy them at a lower price.
    13 Mar 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Win Win?


    New Zero-Down, No-Risk Energy Efficiency Investment Fund Aims To Unlock $150 Billion In Savings
    March 13, 2013




    Sounds at a very superficial reading level like some of the stuff you see from
    13 Mar 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • WT,
    This is a great concept. Loans based on cost savings does make sense. Loans based on unproven theoretical cost savings might be a little more risky.


    But, to have a PbC battery array working in the net zero Naval building right now, should prove effective in tapping this market.


    Speaking of markets. Why isn't a high rise building with one or more elevators a great market for the PbC battery. Elevator comes down and generates electricity. Elevator goes up using the energy stored in the PbC battery. I know its simple, but someone explain to me the science as to why it isn't a good idea.
    13 Mar 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • I thought elevators generally used counterweights...
    13 Mar 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • Yes. But why not generators?
    13 Mar 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Actually, Fut, thinking for a second, I suppose any counterweights merely equal the tare weight of the car anyway.. so it's surprising if it (energy capture and reuse via generators) isn't being done already.. although I could see it taking some engineering such that the payback equation might be difficult..
    13 Mar 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • 48, Counterweights help significantly but you still have to accelerate and decelerate the random mass and the elevator. How much opportunity?
    13 Mar 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • 48,
    You have captured my thinking. If it is money sound, the PbC could be the battery that makes it economical. Just think of the charge acceptance and discharge capabilities of a tourist elevator in the empire state building.
    13 Mar 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Most elevators do use counterweight systems. IIRC, though, a mention on APCs was made of a "Green" resort in Hawaii which installed a ZBB battery and battery management system reportedly captures elevator braking energy.
    13 Mar 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC,
    Rick Krementz did a posting on elevators and energy produced several months back.
    13 Mar 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • metro, yes I did. As I remember, the value recovered was too small to warrant any meaningful investment.


    13 Mar 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you Rick for the reminder,
    Basically we are back to the "A battery is to expensive a bottle in which to store penny electricity" argument.
    It makes sense to use a battery to save fuel ( gas or diesel) because those are relatively expensive. It is much harder to make economic sense out of saving cheap electricity.
    14 Mar 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv> it's important to remember that Hawaii is either diesel fueled electricity or renewables. While they have a bit of geothermal, it's not a huge number and everything else is pretty pricey.
    14 Mar 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, islands in general are potentially a key market for energy storage. As I recall, Tom Granville said that Axion is actively bidding/making proposals for island installations.
    14 Mar 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane, from the 11/15/2012 press release:


    ""We are making meaningful progress toward marketing Axion Cube systems, of various sizes, to commercial users in North America and on offshore island Republics. In some cases our products will be used to decrease dependence on fossil fuels by accepting, regulating and storing power from renewables such as wind and solar. Our PowerCube™ systems can also provide power quality and can store power for backup purposes, as is the case with the Residential Energy Storage Hub. And finally, our PowerCube can assist utilities and grid managers with their efforts in load leveling and frequency regulation. In the case of utilities, the major demonstration system is the Axion PowerCube that was integrated 12 months ago into the huge PJM system here at our manufacturing plant in New Castle. We believe that the announcement of the first confirmed projects, for these various Axion Cube applications, will be made over the next several months. The market is sizable from both a geographic and a financial perspective."


    And from the following conf call later that day:


    "It’s also one of the reasons we’re as excited as we are about the residential units and the off-shore units that we've been looking at and advanced RFPs on because they are shorter term projects, very much shorter term projects.


    Also just wanted to remind everyone of this quote, as I think that many investors may have no idea that ePower (the "very advanced" and "start up" parts of the quote, I assume) is not the only hybrid truck company Axion has been talking with:


    "Separately, we are in various stages of work and discussions, that vary from early to very advanced, with a number of small and large – start up to prominent well established – heavy 'work horse' truck OEMS here in the US. The objective is to outfit 18-wheelers with battery-powered Axion systems that will boost uphill performance as well as increase miles per gallon."
    14 Mar 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • I think at the next CC, there should be an indication if these projects are on hold, are still proceeding, or have fallen by the wayside. I plan on asking a question in this regard - if I am able to due to the time difference.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like


    in case anyone missed this (linked from EV roundup article on SA front page) it makes for interesting reading. Pure refreshment after the slogging comments battle raging over on John's latest article... ;)
    13 Mar 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • 48,
    I thought this was the most interesting thing in that article:


    "On this issue, Norway again stands head and shoulders above the rest - almost 100 percent of electricity is generated from clean hydropower, so a shift from gasoline and diesel cuts pollution."


    From Wikipedia:


    "Electricity generation in Norway is almost entirely from hydroelectric power plants. Of the total production in 2005 of 137.8 TWh, 136 TWh was from hydroelectric plants, 0.86 TWh was from thermal power, and 0.5 TWh was wind generated. In 2005 the total consumption was 125.8 TWh.
    Norway was the first country to generate electricity commercially using sea-bed tidal power. A 300 kilowatt prototype underwater turbine started generation in the Kvalsund, south of Hammerfest, on November 13, 2003."


    All hydropower and North Sea crude as well? Energy utopia.
    13 Mar 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • It's a good thing to be so blessed by geography. And a low population density. The whole world should imitate them. ;)
    13 Mar 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Utopia without doubt. The luck of geography.


    Norway is blessed by hydro, off shore oil and gas, a small population and a government policy that saves their pennies for tough times unlike just about every other country on our planet.


    I am of Swedish descent and am seriously considering buying property in Norway as a hedge on the off chance the rest of the world goes down the toilet.


    Norway is similar to Iceland which has thermal power stations. No wonder Iceland is a major site for computer server farms. Energy costs are very low. Pity about how irresponsible the government is/was regarding the banks.
    13 Mar 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Albert: From what I've read, Iceland did the right think when all the crises started making the foreign banks demand that sovereign wealth be used to make good their losses.


    Iceland told them go ***" and Iceland recovered nicely, IIRC, after suitable time.


    Am I misremembering?


    13 Mar 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • HTL
    Iceland is recovering.
    It appears to be recovering faster than the other countries in trouble.
    It also fell faster and farther at first.


    I have not seen a good comparison of present to past or to others in total. Just it's looking like it is on track and they don't.
    13 Mar 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... Your sorta right.
    13 Mar 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Norway has also benefited from other countries irregular grids.
    They dump their energy and there were even possible regulations where other countries were going to pay fines, but I don't know if that was implemented.
    All Norway did was cut back on their Hydro and got nearly free and may have been paid to take energy from the grid. Then send it back at higher prices when the RE wasn't producing enough.


    Basically Norway was getting the benefit of everyone else's buildout of RE and making money off of it.
    There were even discussions of building a bigger line to dump more energy to Norway. (2? years ago.)
    13 Mar 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Correct. I remember a fad which swept sf fandom about a decade ago... The .44%ers. (It might have been an even smaller number, but this is what I recall). Their arguments were very compelling. All we had to do was kill off 99.56% of the human race, and things become very sweet for the survivors (not to mention the other species).


    13 Mar 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Yes. As I recall, this was the dirty little secret behind the glowing reports of Denmark's RE success... They were using their links to Sweden (and others, but Sweden is what I remember) to fill in the gaps.
    13 Mar 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • When do we start killing off excess population? Oh, when the kids from the boomers get the entitlements bills.
    13 Mar 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Banks in Iceland were deregulated on about 2001. After that they started to make hugely levered loans. Eventually the 3 largest banks were nationalized. Thousands of depositors were wiped out. The country almost went bankrupt.
    14 Mar 2013, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • Froggey: From what I've *heard* over the years, "It also fell faster and farther at first" is what's need to make a quick and more robust recovery. I don't know for myself, of course.


    I think that thought is based on the normal assumption that a quick "house cleaning" of failing enterprises lets the recovery start sooner and with less overhang moving forward as the resources can be reallocated.


    The opposite of "extend and pretend" or "kick the can", which is the prevailing philosophy now, that ties everything up for ages and prevents reallocation.


    14 Mar 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • HTL
    That is the tone of the articles I've seen. I expect it will be true at some time, and may be now.
    I just haven't seen anything even close to a serious attempt to make the case.
    14 Mar 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • >froggey77 ... Have you not learned that the Keynesian approach to fix this banking disaster is not popular? Neither Iceland or Sweden did it strictly by the book but close and both recovered quickly. This is a subject I've spent a lot of time learning about, and discussing. I would suggest dropping it because, from reading the comment stream here for years, it would not be in line with prevailing attitudes and is definitely political, but fascinating economics.
    14 Mar 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    Thanks for the info on Mr. Fisker resigning. Obviously, not getting the federal money they counted on made a difference. Without adequate financing they have to sell. Probably to Geely
    ( chinese). Which owns Volvo. And just created a new 50/50 partnership with KANDI.


    So an electric luxury car maker (Fisker), a luxury car maker (Volvo), a value electric car maker (Kandi), and a value car maker (Greely) all could be lumped together selling ICE and electric cars through Volvos worldwide dealerships. Interesting.
    13 Mar 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich---I've seen several comments on AltoonaWorks' facebook page about problems with SD60Es breaking down. Such as a comment from less than an hour ago:



    Accurate representation of the conversions, do you think? If so, what might be the material implications for Axion, if any?
    13 Mar 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I
    Perhaps I am missing something. Why do you consider that it might make a difference?
    13 Mar 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • I'm with Froggy. I am not seeing the difference or distinction. Help me.
    13 Mar 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • After reviewing the Altoona bill of work that converts SD60s to SD60Es, I see no direct linkage between those locomotives and either yardswitcher or OTR battery electric locomotives. Could be an indirect link if the SD60Es are breaking down more frequently than other OTR locomotives in service since servicing the breakdowns could require more shop time and scheduling adjustments in the Altoona shops.


    Principal mechanical system difference between SD60s and SD60Es appears to be the diesel engine and cooling system.

    13 Mar 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • I just don't know, so I asked.


    Even being no rail expert, I can think of at least one possible link---the one that D-inv mentioned. Is the battery OTR to replace a loco, or additive? If it's for replacement, then maybe some of NS' capital budget gets reallocated from what may be a troubled SD60e program to the battery OTR.
    14 Mar 2013, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr I
    I'd like to say it's got possibilities.
    Judging how speedily they have not moved in the past; I think they are not there yet.
    14 Mar 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • >Mr Investor ... I've been rooting around looking to see if I could find any info on the SD60-E project with Norfolk Southern (NSC). I haven't found anything to suggest it not progressing just fine with a few glitches that are not out of the ordinary or might not to be expected. Worst I've found is it is probably a little over budget (no solid, authoritative evidence) because of engine & software mods required to raise output horsepower.


    As far as implications to NS999, OTR & Axion, I don't believe there is any at all, but that is just a guess on my part.
    14 Mar 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • "Worst I've found is it is probably a little over budget (no solid, authoritative evidence) because of engine & software mods required to raise output horsepower."


    Now THAT is interesting, largely because my (perhaps lame) understanding of the battery electric OTR concept is to use them to boost hp from time to time.

  suggests that 240 SD60E builds are planned with just 31 completed to date. It also indicates that the planned hp of the units was increased from 3,800 to 4,000 after the first few builds. A 4,000 hp SD60-E coupled with a BEL consist delivering something on the order of 2,500 - 3,000 hp might enable NSC to run trains with a single SD60-E instead of two where the second has generally been required to accelerate from stop and to assist with hill climbs.
    14 Mar 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... I like that idea and certainly would save NSC a small fortune.


    The SD60 project was started in 2007 and, I believe, was delayed by technological advancement in the train controller systems and diesel engines. None of which I can definitively back up with documentation but it points to the truth we all have learned that rail projects are slow moving affairs.
    14 Mar 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • All,


    I was wondering if Axion succeeds in securing a few fleet tests with an OEM and - say- 20 truck conversions with ePower for this year, how much capital do you see them trying to raise for that? Also, I see that they are still employing below 100 people at New Castle. Do you foresee any increase in hiring to meet this prospective demand?


    13 Mar 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • >Amouna ... Axion has presently excess capacity to meet the needs of what you see for demand. Not remembering correctly I'm sure but I believe, as is, New Castle could do 50k PbC's.
    13 Mar 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    A win of a large model would exceed Axion's ability to deliver.


    As DRich says fleet testing wouldn't.
    13 Mar 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna,
    The beauty of Axion is that they don't need to ramp up for "prospective demand". They can produce many electrodes now and can ramp up production in a short time.. This is not a" borrow a ton now, to produce a bunch of imaginary widgets,later" kind of business.
    13 Mar 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Question I have about "scale" is, What does one mean by "scale." Seems to me that term is entirely notional and dependent on needs. There are beau coup auto models that sell less than 50k units per year. Many sell less than 25K per year.


    Why in hell is it necessary to be able to produce, say, 1,000,000 batteries per year before an auto OEM might be willing to adopt the battery for a model with historical sales of 10K per year? I say it is not so necessary. Price is the issue as long as there is no danger of demand for an auto model using the battery outstripping current capacity plus expansion capability.


    13 Mar 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv,
    Scale is an interesting concept and I hope that Axion has to grapple with the issue soon.


    The 2nd most misunderstood argument about Axions capacity is the BMW issue. I could be wrong but I doubt that a heavy PbC battery will ever be made and shipped to Europe for a BMW production vehicle. Electrodes maybe. But shipping 100,000 batteries is a large waste of money. Using a current BMW accepted supplier for the battery in Europe makes so much more sense.
    Of course BMW does make some models in the US.


    But I see scale as simple. All we need to ramp up is a few electrode lines. They are simple and clean and ramp fast. No special government permits to obtain. To me its just not an issue.
    14 Mar 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • What do you think is the tag price for a fully automated electrode line?
    14 Mar 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rough on new electrode line 2.5 to 3M. JP has the best number but I think I'm in the ball park. Delivery 2-3 months.
    14 Mar 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Bang: recall that in a long-ago CC, TG said that the lines were now "cookie cutter" and could deliver in just a few weeks.


    I don't know the set-up time, but if that was included, I would think 2-3 months would be the total time from order to ready for production use.


    14 Mar 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Wouldn't that be a hoot?


    Lead Carbon Batteries Could Find Niche in Energy Storage for EV Chargers


    "Just when everyone thought lead-based battery chemistries would have no place in the future market for pure-electric vehicle infrastructure, one company is looking into the potential of advanced lead carbon batteries as an integral part of meeting future demand for EV fast chargers. New ALABC member Electric Applications Incorporated (EAI), a spin-off of current ALABC member ECOtality North American in Phoenix, AZ, is exploring the use of battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce demand of EV fast chargers on the electric grid, and is proposing under the new ALABC program to test and determine the best lead-carbon battery design for this application."

    13 Mar 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Wanna see how fast I can become a tesla fan?
    13 Mar 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • :-) LOL
    13 Mar 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • 48: Hilarious.
    13 Mar 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • Resistance is futile. Welcome to the dark side. :)
    13 Mar 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • Curious if Axion choose to participate in the program...
    13 Mar 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: "... a hoot".


    I can think of at least one individual that would likely have an apoplectic fit if it turned out that PbCs enabled widespread adoption of very expensive bottles to hold very cheap "fuel". Then the resource-constrained scenario would begin to play out and we might see his thesis verified - not a good thought.


    14 Mar 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, An expensive bottle to transfer cheap energy to an even more expensive bottle. Or you can Better Place swap expensive bottles. If you can't justify the first bottle you sure can't justify the second no matter how you try to package it. Well unless you can sucker someone else into picking up the tab. Stone soup anyone?


    PS I can see his smile now standing by the charging station itching his head! Saying something like " What the.....?" ;))
    14 Mar 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • ....isn't that why there is the solar tree outside of Axion HQ?
    13 Mar 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • metro: Yes, that's what I recall, too (and there are two solar trees at Axion HQs). Wasn't there some solar powered garage (in San Diego?) involving Envision Solar, that was to charge PbCs that would charge lithium EVs?


    A SWAG, but given that the PbC can discharge at two to four times faster than some lithium chemistries can absorb electricity, there's seems to still be a possibility with this concept.


    All I got from the last SC was that this idea was out there in the Saragasso Sea, i.e, dead in the water.
    13 Mar 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Metro, there is a solar tree but was not connected to storage when I was there last summer (different building than the PowerCube)...
    13 Mar 2013, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • As a reminder, from the Axion 1/11/2013 press release:


    "Our new initiatives going forward include heavy trucks, charging station applications, residential energy and buffering and storage for wind and solar," Granville said.
    14 Mar 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • The Solar trees at Axion are located at the electrode plant building, not the battery plant. There is a chart inside the building that shows how much energy was saved by using the solar tree. The amount of money saved is ridiculously small. I took one look at that chart and thought " Envision has a bad business plan". Axion can thank the govt grant that paid for the solar tree.


    Like Maya, I recall the last CC pretty much saying the Envision thing was dead, but that is from memory.
    14 Mar 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • It appears that Envision is about dead, unless the memorandum of understanding comes to fruition that they signed with Horizon Energy.
    14 Mar 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Maya,


    Speaking of solar installation:

    14 Mar 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • 03/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19500, Vol 138180, AvTrSz: 3543
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2945
    # Buys, Shares: 17 26916,VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2997
    # Sells, Shares: 22 111264, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2932
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.13 (19.5% “buys”), DlyShts 1500 (01.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.35%


    On the traditional TA front, lower high and low price suggest more downward movement is available even though we had a higher close, +$0.004. Our close, and even the last few trades prior to it, stayed right at or very near my new potential rising support, ~$0.301 today. But we still have no confirmation that it is providing support or resistance, so I'm not putting any confidence there. The oscillators I watch continued to weaken.


    Looking at less conventional stuff, I watched the bids and asks closely. The asks weakened relatively quickly until 14:38, when they firmed and held at $0.30. Looking several price levels deep, there was a fair amount of volume lined up at higher asks and expect some of those will adjust downward tomorrow.


    So I think continued wakening of price is likely and, maybe, reducing volume again and most folks hold and hope for another day or two. Caveat: at least one set of players that go through UBSS seems to have learned from the last go-down as they dropped price faster than last time. So if others are of the same mind, we might get a “whoosh” - just can't tell.


    On my experimental stuff, still very small average trade size, rotten buy:sell is only slowly improving in trend, VWAP, which had shown improvement until a couple days ago, has now weakened for the second consecutive day, daily short sales remain minuscule, and my original inflection point calculations continue to weaken, although now I have to give them credit for a “water ballet” pattern worthy of the Olympics. In retrospect, they may have signaled this about two or three days before price really started weakening. My new version is in agreement with the downward bias.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
    14 Mar 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,


    What are your algos telling you right now about the action in AXPW market? It just keeps trending down on ridiculously low volume....


    14 Mar 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • I just did some 2nd grade math, and using JP's divide by two, only about $850 worth of Axion has traded so far today.


    Selling pressure, and buying pressure, has evaporated.
    14 Mar 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • It is the "wait and see" attitude that kills me :)
    14 Mar 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna: "algos"? LoL! Makes me sound like a sophisticated HFT trader or something.


    My stuff is not really oriented to intra-day trading analysis. I just look to catch changes in trends from up to down and vice-versa day-to-day.


    My EOD post really says what I can see: lower volume for the moment with weakening price.


    From watching the bid/ask very closely yesterday, we know that the asks moved down much more readily than the bids moved up. Today is more balanced, but with only 5,675 shares traded, it means nothing. Even the buy:sell, 2.20:1, is meaningless with this kind of volume.


    When (if?) the typical late-day action starts we'll see the asks dropping first from the current $0.3039 (marked down from $0.3040! =>8-O) and probably try to "stick" at >= $0.30. If buyers come in it could hold. With *relatively* big bid volume ATM at >= $0.29, we could hold pretty close to that as some of these get impatient (ATDF and sometimes CDEL have a history of this and both are top of bid ATM).


    We do have an unknown, but I'm guessing relative large based on the number of "standard" 2.5K lots hiding true volume, quantity of asks <=$0.305. Two of those, NITE and TEJS, have a history of readily "caving" when things stretch out too long. The third, STXG, is new to me here and I don't know how they normally behave.


    14 Mar 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks a lot! It is very valuable info


    Didn't TG say (or imply) at the last CC that we shall hear something about the financing by end of this month?
    Just wondering...
    14 Mar 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna: I can't recall him saying that, but my memory is not the best for that sort of thing. Our speculation here is that Axion could run deep into the next quarter before needing to finance. Since TG did say he was seeking a "strategically aligned" financing partner, I would not be surprised to see the financing come very late as a) seeing if there's a potential partner(s) like that and b) hammering out details if it looks like it will happen.


    JP has pointed out some of the flip side that is, IMO, worrisome: AXPW might need to again work with the bunch involved in the 2/12 financing round. In that case some VWAP period would determine the share issuance price, which I expect would be low if our current period is part of the measuring period.


    There's just no way to intelligently guess what's really happening.


    14 Mar 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna, here are the links to the last earning release PR and the transcript for the following conference call later that day:




    They make for some very important reading.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • The problem with institutional investors IMO is that most are chasing the next "hot" thing with the patience of a 2-year old, which makes for a potentially volatile market. These guys are better not be called upon unless it is a last resort solution.


    Let's hope that TG is lucky enough to land us a patient strategic investor who knows how slow and tough the manufacturing business is, and who accompany us patiently on the path to success!
    14 Mar 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • "Our speculation here is that Axion could run deep into the next quarter before needing to finance. "


    I think it likely that TG's timeline for financing was an outlook formed on assumption that Axion would still be looking to future delivery (and receipt of revenue) of NSC batteries. That is, I expect the timeline did not consider, and would be affected by, receipt of $493k revenue from NSC.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Mr Investor!
    14 Mar 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • No problem Amouna! Those documents are the heart of many a discussion here, so I thought you might want to read them for yourself.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • This has all been written before, but maybe it bears repeating (hopefully my memory is correct).


    Axion appears to have the option to do another round with the Feb 2012 financial investors. The terms appear to have been something very roughly like a 20% discount from the average stock price over the prior 60 day period. Given the going concern warning in the financial statement that the company cannot continue to operate as is beyond March 31, 2013, this means that a dramatic change in the stock price today would have only a very limited impact on the price of the financing if these terms were to be repeated.


    We know that TG would like to go with a strategic investor this time. We also know that he is very, very conservative. As JP has repeatedly stated (and you've got to believe TG feels the same way) you always take the money when it is available.


    If he doesn’t get a strategic agreement, and there isn’t some big news (and maybe even if there is news), by waiting till the last minute he’s leaving himself wide open to really being raked over the coals by the financial investors not to mention macroeconomic and company risks.


    Dramatics aside, I think it's clear that TG just doesn't do that sort of thing. My guess is that the strategic agreement has been worked out. I believe, every additional day that the current circumstance continues increases that likelihood, especially once the calendar turned over to March.
    14 Mar 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • APM, I agree with your thoughts that this is a possibility.


    There is also the possibility that TG feels that there is a strong card coming his way and he's willing to get a lot less comfortable to go all in.
    14 Mar 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • APM, iindelco,


    Indeed TG seems to be running the ship very conservatively, and I wish him all the luck he deserves to find someone aligned with our interests!
    14 Mar 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • APM. Amouna, One cautionary note based on how the stock is trading. To me it looks like the possibility of a raise like the last one is still in play. I sense that blocks are being placed surgically to pressure the stock down. I am witnessing a recently thinly traded stock having someone place fairly large blocks at the ask in what appears to be just the right times not to optimize reducing holdings but to cause price depreciation. If this is their wish they are doing a great job. They won.


    Just my opinion.
    14 Mar 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Well, I see I forgot to change the date *again* - maybe I need a break. The date above s/b 3/13/2013.


    14 Mar 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • ii,
    Lets review the thought.
    First APmarshal:
    " We also know that he is very, very conservative."
    " I think it's clear that TG just doesn't do that sort of thing. My guess is that the strategic agreement has been worked out. I believe, every additional day that the current circumstance continues increases that likelihood, especially once the calendar turned over to March. "


    Second iindelco:
    "There is also the possibility that TG feels that there is a strong card coming his way and he's willing to get a lot less comfortable to go all in. "


    I respect both of you and your ideas but really, it can;t go both ways. If TG is as conservative as AP suggests then he won't go Bangwhiz on us and go all in.


    If he has the 2012 investors in his pocket what does a few weeks hurt. It isn't like the price can be much worse.


    At this point we are guessing. But I'm kinda with AP on this one. TG has a present in his pocket. Someone with an interest in railroads, trucking, or European battery manufacturing is ahead of the game.
    A small investment of 10 million can garner you a lot of access to PbCs in the near future.
    14 Mar 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Right now there are lot of dogs not barking...
    14 Mar 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • 48,
    What a great line. Yes, there are many dogs not barking. And it doesn't take much to set them all off.


    I am definitley going to steal that line if its OK with you. I might even include it in my book of JPs quips.
    14 Mar 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fut, I'd be humbled and honored...
    14 Mar 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco When I wrote my last post I thought about including a few paras on the possibility you describe where TG is expecting a strong card and he's willing to take a chance. I decided not to write about it because I don't think that's it. Here's my logic:


    First, let's just put aside the terms of the last raise from the financial investors by making the assumption that the card is so good that the financial investors will relax their demands.


    That brings us to the crux of that argument. If the news is so good that it triples the stock price then TG would only have to issue 10m new shares instead of 40m (at $.25/share) to get $9m to keep the company going.


    So, instead of going to 165m shares (including warrants and options) he'd only have to go to 135m shares. In total share count that's a little more than 20% additional dilution. I don't think any competent CEO would go "all in" over that, much less a very, very conservative guy like Mr. Granville and the rest of the insiders who've proven their discipline over the past decade.


    Alternately, if he had that card coming and was that concerned about the shares outstanding, he could have just taken a smaller amount of money from the financial insiders in January. The one think you know every Axion insider has learned many times over is that everything takes longer than you think it will take.
    14 Mar 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • It occurs to me that at this stage of things, NSC, and perhaps BMW and to some extent, ePower, are all getting a bit more invested in Axion's success than was previously the case. NSC has said they tested virtually all other chemistries. They appear to have settled on Axion. BMW likewise has some magnitude of sunk costs by now. Whatever their roadmap is, if PbC appears on it, it's going to be a disruption if Axion were to fail. ePower has less history with them, but then they just signed a 5 year agreement. Point is, they all now have a real interest in Axion's survival, ie preventing any slowdown or failure on the part of Axion. At this point in time, TG *could even* go all blazing saddles on one or more of them and threaten to shoot the hostage (close the doors, go into hibernation) if they don't pony up some kind of advance or contract or at least some lifeline money. I know that's extreme, and I'm kidding mostly, but still I think the point remains, that to some of these players at least, Axion may now have become TITF to them...too important to fail.


    I could even suspect how right now, this moment, at this crucial stage, TG could well be amidst one of the most exciting, intense, and grueling times of his professional career. And certainly of his time at the helm of Axion. Now may be that very juncture when it's either all going to come together on advantageous terms, and the bridge will be crossed to a whole new stage of life for Axion, or it doesn't....that the strain of waiting is doomed to continue for yet longer still, with at least one more round of infernal fundraising conducted from not a position of strength. Now I think JP said that possibly funds would not truly be needed until the end of June (if I understand correctly) and if that is the case, TG may indeed have more maneuvering room to work with, but nevertheless, I am still more of a mind with APM here... TG has a viable backup plan that he can exercise should he need to. The fact that he hasn't yet done so, that he hasn't thrown in the towel on higher aspirations for now and just punted, makes me hopeful. But then I am always hopeful...
    15 Mar 2013, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Or maybe TG is ready to close now but the investors are gaming the system to leverage their own self interests.
    15 Mar 2013, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • Could be that too. I wonder what the amount raised would be, if he is having to go back to the original gang. Another full year's worth? Or something less? After all, we could be close enough to a large enough contract or strategic investment that he may only have to go for a few month's worth...
    That might make it a bit easier to take the medicine.
    15 Mar 2013, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • 48xxx,


    With all due respect, I don't think that TG can afford to play the TITF card because, as great the technology and IP assets of Axion are, it is not in a position of strength to dictate its own "rules" on BMW or NSC. The business world out there is tough and if we end up in failure, they can walk in and buy those beautiful assets - that TG and Co spent a decade almost looking after- in bankrupcy court for pennies on the dollar. This obviously wouldn't be a good outcome for us!


    Otherwise I think he is doing a fine job and will be looking forward to a strategic investment sometimes soon
    15 Mar 2013, 05:51 AM Reply Like
  • Axion has no debt, so no BK.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna, can't say as I disagree... I was basically spitballing, and that was just one avenue of thought that was just kind of fun and intriguing. I mean it's not hard imagine TG at least *thinking* for a moment along those lines is it? ;) But yeah, I'm sure the actual reality is probably a lot different...
    15 Mar 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • 2nd Microgrids: Military & Commercial Summit





    Schneider is a Gold Sponsor (S&C is the one higher [platinum] sponsor) and has partnered with ZBB on at least 2 of the Connecticut Microgrid project proposals.


    eMerge Alliance (focus on DC [and net-Zero?] in buildings) and State of Connecticut (with their recent Microgrid Project experience) are involved.


    Chris Kuhl, Team Leader, Global Sales & Service Support, ZBB
    ENERGY on a day 2 panel.


    ZBB has done a good job working this market, but the question is whether it will take hold in time to overcome their financing needs. Like us, so tantalizingly close to significant markets, but trying the patience of their investors. Their Tier acquisition helped on the Military side as the principal there is well know in Military circles for small project design work.


    Would love to know if Axion is ceding this (Powercube) market because they just don't have the staff (priority call,) they think it will come eventually, but not soon, or they've decided this application just doesn't quite work economically (compared to the competition, and there's a lot of it) for them.


    Wonder when we'll hear form East Penn/Ecoult again?
    14 Mar 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • "Cummins Inc. and PACCAR division Peterbilt Motors Co. have wrapped up testing on a demo tractor-trailer - a "SuperTruck" - and the results show that the rig achieved an improvement in fuel economy exceeding 50%."



    Does not appear hybridization was part of the package, therefore hybridization would presumably lead to even larger gains.


    Wait, this link says that "Cummins will partner with Peterbilt Motors Company, a division of PACCAR, for its SuperTruck project. The Cummins project will develop and demonstrate a highly efficient and clean diesel engine, an advanced waste heat recovery system, an aerodynamic Peterbilt tractor and trailer combination, and a fuel cell auxiliary power unit to reduce engine idling."
    14 Mar 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • It appears there is a whole lot going into this particular SuperTruck fuel economy gain, including:
    a waste heat recovery system to increase efficiency. The refrigerant-based system collects exhaust heat from various sources, such as the turbocharger or aftertreatment system, and expands the collected heat across the turbine to keep the engine cool, the use of lighter weight materials, such as aluminum. Adjustments to the aerodynamics of the tractor and trailer to reduce the vehicle’s drag, a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) for idle management, an advanced transmission by Eaton Corp to reduce energy lost through the shifting process as well as driver displays. Newhaus says the driver displays will be an important piece of the puzzle, “ensuring [drivers] know what’s going on with the vehicle and how to react with the vehicle to gain the maximum efficiency.
    14 Mar 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds expensive.


    I would be interested in knowing the cost/benefit especially compared to the ePower solution.


    14 Mar 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like fuel savings claims computed similarly to those made by ePower for hauling somewhat smaller freight loads over comparable terrain. EPower says savings with 80k GVW where Cummins/PACCAR say savings with 65k GVW.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Too quick on the "reply" button. Intended to add that I see the timing of the "Next-Gen Transportation" article as indication that ePower has gotten the attention of some big truck OEMs who intend to preserve their market for new product.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds complicated. Complicated = expensive.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • I look forward to Axion making progress with other truck companies' hybrid programs. Hope to hear an update in about 2 weeks, during the earnings release and conf call.
    14 Mar 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv. You may be right. I was thinking that if ePower's solution becomes mainstream that could create a great increase in demand for used rigs to rebuild which presumably would translate to a longer service life for the rigs on the road and hence a drop in sales of new trucks.


    Recently I came across a 2010 report written for the trucking industry that described the operating cost of trucks based on their age (I'm awaiting permission to share it). According to the report a 13-24 month old truck is the lowest cost to operate with costs increasing 1-2 cents per mile each year thereafter (1 cent in the early years and 2 cents in the 5-6 year range).


    This was considered a pretty powerful incentive to maintain a young fleet. Now, imagine if ePower can reduce the cost of fuel from 60 cents per mile to 30-40 cents. That clearly would overwhelm the existing incentive structure and would to some extent reverse the incentives.


    So, that's my long-winded way of violently agreeing with you.
    14 Mar 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • apm, I don't know, but I do know that ePower's presentation (that JP provided us) says that they think the sweet spot is the 1,010,000 trucks 6-11 years old in the US. They add, "Original drive train out of warranty -lots of life still left in the vehicle."


    For the 845,000 trucks between 0-5 years old, they say, "Probably too young for conversion. Original drive train still under warranty. Conversion can be made but not likely until older fleet vehicles have been converted."


    For the 845,000 trucks 12-16 years old, they say, "Probably too old for conversion. Payback on investment would start to look questionable. Conversion can be made but not likely until younger fleet vehicles have been converted."


    Then later, OEM sales. They also had some mention of the international opportunity.
    15 Mar 2013, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • ePower solution is a good fit for AXPW....however everything I read points to about 2 years before any volume of units is sold. ePower and AXPW may well grow together. They need to sorta "fleet test" for a while now and work out the bugs. They are still sorta a
    "one horse show" so getting the first 10-20 units out in 12-24 months will be a should get easier then to sell kits when they have data on 10+ trucks performance for a year.
    Don't expect a cash infusion to AXPW from ePower, if anything this would have to go the other way. Big business sometimes has to "nurture" new mkts. and this is one AXPW could help grow including financial assistance at some point.


    ePower is not the only company working on fuel savings, someone posted Cummins new engine plans that accomplish the same goal. So this app will not be a one shoe fits all either. ePower should get a very good mkt. share on the rebuilds but not 100%.
    15 Mar 2013, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • 1% of a million retrofits ( overhauls) is 60 x 10,000 = 600,000 PbCs per year.
    I'll take that for now. That's how I roll. Not being greedy and all.
    15 Mar 2013, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, at this point, I would take another minicube sale or two. Something other than a press release that says what they are going to do or are trying to do.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan, Repeat business. The greatest form of flattery!
    15 Mar 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Here's the Cummins PR on this ...


    'SuperTruck' Yields 54 Percent Increase in Fuel Economy



    "Cummins is a prime contractor leading one of four vertical teams under the Department of Energy’s SuperTruck project. SuperTruck is one of several initiatives under the 21st Century Truck Partnership, which is a public-private partnership founded to further stimulate innovation in the trucking industry through the sponsoring government agencies, companies, national laboratories and universities.


    Cummins, Peterbilt and their program partners will have invested $38.8 million in private funds over the four-year life of their SuperTruck program, which started in 2010, with critical support coming through awarded matching grants from the Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Program.


    Testing will continue in 2013 on a new Peterbilt 579 that Cummins and Peterbilt are confident will take what has been achieved so far to even higher levels. The testing will address use of the tractor-trailer over a 24-hour period; including periods when drivers are at rest but still need power for such things as air conditioning and small appliances"
    18 Mar 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Just think how much of that cash could have been saved had they just had Axion on their rolrdex!
    18 Mar 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Metair is the parent company of First National Battery who received the BMW 3 series contract for the vehicles built in South Africa. They also bought Rombat in Romania so my guess is that they are looking to scale at some level for the European market. Might be BMW is interested in adding another player to assure supply and keep pressure on costs.


    Sounds like they are doing some things with AGM LAB's that is "similar" to Axion's and East Penn's efforts in the area.


    Metair builds two electric cars

    14 Mar 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Cummins/Peterbilt SuperTruck shows 54% improvement in fuel economy, 61% improvement in freight efficiency



    Is there any chance that they have an Axion inside?
    14 Mar 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Two paragraphs at the end of the SuperTruck article.


    In addition to the truck’s exterior, Peterbilt and its partners have been working on improvements in the drivetrain, the idle management system, weight reduction and vehicle climate control. Eaton’s advanced transmission facilitates further engine downspeeding for additional fuel economy benefits.


    Testing will continue in 2013 on a new Peterbilt 579 that Cummins and Peterbilt are confident will take what has been achieved so far to even higher levels. The testing will address use of the tractor-trailer over a 24-hour period; including periods when drivers are at rest but still need power for such things as air conditioning and small appliances.
    14 Mar 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think so for APU anyway. Looks like they are using a fuel cell. See, Slide 14.

    14 Mar 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Stefan
    14 Mar 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • others know better than I do, but ISTM that any time we talk fuel-cell we're talking expensive. If we weren't, every building would have one and fuelcell cars would be a common sight. And in this application, what exactly is going to fuel it? H2? CNG? That sounds like headache. What's its service life going to be like? To me, the fuelcell inclusion here just smacks of a cool demonstrator of concept----a price-is-no-object optimization. Certainly a PbC apu is going to be nearly a degree of magnitude less expensive...
    14 Mar 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • >481086 ... Cheap may beat Cool ... but Cool sells ... or at least seems to.
    14 Mar 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • 86, That Delphi FC has been a long time in the making. I called them 5 years ago and asked about availability and they said they were getting close but cautioned me about cost. We were talking $15-20k then. I suspect they might be cheaper now. How much is anyone's guess...
    14 Mar 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • >Tim Enright ... I'd suspect that Delphi FC is no cheaper than when you inquired. I find it interesting that it was 5 years ago. Axion is involved with APU development and best I can figure has been for about 2 years. On a similar time line, APU's is one more product line that probably has a 2017 to end of decade target on it.
    14 Mar 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Here's their site.



    I was curious because I worked with a bunch of engineers that went to GM's fuel cell research facility in Honeoye Falls NY. They announced they are moving the research back to Michigan recently and I didn't know if they were one in the same because GM was taking some assets back from Delphi.


    GM to close fuel-cell research facility in Honeoye Falls

    14 Mar 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • > DRich ... The APU seems like a much closer target and if they are able to produce electronics that will covert the variable (2-12 or 6-36) voltage on the PbC side to a steady (12.2-12.9) on the load side then the same bundle should be able to be used in other "drop in" environments. Maybe the conversion is harder than I think it is...
    14 Mar 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Years in the Making, Promising Rechargeable Metal-Air Batteries Head to Market

    14 Mar 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Surprised to read it's Honda but a good example of why you want to test the crap out of your batteries. Good thing it's not 100% penetration on the Civic.


    Could Honda hiccups lead to irrelevance?


    "Honda is facing questions over the reliability of its Civic hybrid after a Consumer Reports survey ranked the model among the worst.


    Consumer Reports' April issue found the Honda Civic hybrid is plagued by reliability issues that resulted in 20 percent of 2009 Civic owners replacing a hybrid battery within the first year."

    14 Mar 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • reading the CR link, it says


    "Honda switched to a new lithium-ion battery pack in 2012-2013 Civic Hybrid, (as well as Acura ILX Hybrid), and neither Safercar nor Consumer Reports have any reported complains with the electrical system."


    wonder how much honda is paying for that new battery... and just curiosity did we already dismiss honda as one of the asian candidates that might be working with axion?


    also, this seemed a good datapoint to get a sense of how the market might be moving...



    they also mention a chrysler NG pickup truck..
    14 Mar 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • I think we dismissed Honda, because it wasn't a top five.producer. Too lazy to go back to read the exact comment made by TG at last CC, but we took this to mean top 5 world producers and not top 5 Asian producers, of which I believe Honda would be fourth behind Toyota, Hyundai, and Nissan.
    15 Mar 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    It is interesting that not only do auto companies "test the crap out of your batteries," but BMW has taken it a step further by spending time and money on 3rd party "invalidation" testing just to prove they don't want the PbC - at least that is my take on the logic of some posters. Follow up fleet testing would further prove the validation of BMW's invalidation. The fleet testing will reinforce their invalidation of the PbC way back in 2010.
    15 Mar 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Metro, Read your comment a couple times and all I can say is I think you make an invalid point. ;)


    Something is going to have to give soon in automotive if they want it. Oh for 5 minutes with Vani and a bottle of truth serum. "You vil answer mine qvestions."


    Heck, the tension in the concentrators is so thick you can cut it with a knife. At least something is solidifying!


    PS Hope all is going well for you there in Dubai. Well inspite of the stinky drain(s)!
    15 Mar 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • I've always thought that any of Axion's upper management's worst nightmare is getting on a full plane and get stuck sitting next to an Axionista.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    Everything will be almost perfect as soon as I qualify for my "Alcoholic License".
    15 Mar 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Metro, You can drink there with certain restrictions? I'm not familiar.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Bars attached to most hotels that one can frequent at will. Have already discovered my favorite Irish Bar and it's St. Patrick's Day weekend. Can't buy alcohol to keep at home unless have an "Alcoholic License". Around 70% of the people in Dubai are expats. Lots of things going on, it is a really good place to live and best of all is zero income tax and things are really cheap - at least compared to Europe. I eat easily for about 8 euro per day- and that is eating breakfast lunch and dinner eating out.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for sharing Metro. Sounds great. Enjoy!
    15 Mar 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Metro, great analysis (and great wry humor!). -- Deserving of a gold star award as far as I'm concerned.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • "Dow ends up for 10th day, S&P nears record high"
    14 Mar 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Totally hear ya brother...Not quite a wonderful feeling. So what's the word for reverse schadenfreude? ;)
    14 Mar 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Future wow cool nanotube stuff to generate electricity from osmotic differential of sea and freshwater:

    14 Mar 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Electric power from osmotic differential? Fascinating world we live in.
    14 Mar 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • here's a pretty good high level look at the S and Karma... kind of interesting to hear what the disinterested, mainstream take is on them...

    14 Mar 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Second of four part report on Naval smart grid. Not much to sink your teeth into. The main thing I come away with is that the military is going full speed ahead on developing an integrated system to provide reliable power and conservation of energy.

    14 Mar 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Corvus in the news (Dow-Kokam Lithium cells)



    "This order represents the conversion of Spirit’s entire Fort Lauderdale fleet of baggage tractors. Spirit estimates a fuel reduction savings of 25,000 gallons of gasoline per year, resulting in reduction of greenhouse gasses by an estimated 243 tons of carbon and positively impacting the air quality for everyone locally and globally. Spirit will purchase the units from Corvus’ North American distributor Aviation GSE America, Inc."


    Product Details:


    Note the claim in the Tractor Retrofit PDF:


    "Unaffected by extreme cold or hot temperatures"
    15 Mar 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Has anyone considered their lost opportunity cost if overweight in Axion with the market run up this year? You could throw a dart and probably do better. If balanced no big deal. If you went bangwhiz as Futurist termed it and are all in - well hmmmmmmm.
    15 Mar 2013, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • BW: I know I've mentioned a few times in my posts and I'm sure others have as well.


    15 Mar 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, I couldn't agree more. If any one thing made the big investors bail short of AXPW failing it was the opportunity cost of the last 3 years.


    With all the focus for an entire year being on the "next capital raise" one can see why I said mgt. made a huge mistake when the stock was $1-$3 not raising $50-150 million to finish development when money was growing on trees and really easy to get. Then the total shares outstanding would be about where it is now or even less. AXPW would have been a strong company and had the funds to develop mkts. and the OEM's would not be worried about them being in business later on.


    IMO, when TG only raised $10 M last year, that told us there would be nothing big happen. That did not cover any production build out...only barely kept the doors open. Another raise like last year will not instill confidence in AXPW either. They need a big capital infusion. How many times has JP said " AXPW does not have the funds & manpower to pursue certain apps where PbC might stand a chance"?
    I think the big uglies knew all this a year before we did. So they lost confidence and bailed knowing they can come back at anytime. About the only positive is a few of them still follow the company on cc's.
    Assuming the new capital is raised before the next cc,, it is time to force some answers as to the company milestones and goals. There needs to be a way to measure mgt. performance, and if they can't deliver ..... be held accountable.
    If you can't get this from the CEO, then axionista's should begin with the board of directors. We might be surprised and get a positive response. They are invested too you know.
    15 Mar 2013, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • "How many times has JP said " AXPW does not have the funds & manpower to pursue certain apps where PbC might stand a chance"?"


    Uh, never?


    Axion doesn't have the funds and manpower for a shotgun approach, throwing itself at anything that comes along.


    Axion must be and has been very strategic and selective about pursuing applications and clients where the technology is best suited.


    15 Mar 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • "There needs to be a way to measure mgt. performance, and if they can't deliver ..... be held accountable. "


    With all due respect, this is the job of the Board of Directors. I have no doubt that the board has full knowledge of the operations and future plans for the company. Every company has a way to measure the success of its management. Every day TG remains as CEO is an affirmation that he is meeting or exceeding the goals of the Board of Directors.


    Its not always fun to be a shareholder. Shareholders have the right to complain. But except for stock price , no one can truly complain about the progress Axion has made in the last two years. And that progress is the result of present management.
    15 Mar 2013, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist....if you were on the board in 4th qtr. 2011 laying out the plans and progress you wanted to see in 2012, what would you have written down as goals ?
    15 Mar 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT,
    That is impossible to answer without the knowledge the board has as to the progression of each potential sale. All I can say is that I would have had management concentrate in markets that cycle the heck out of a battery. I think the APU and truck hybrid program does exactly that.


    It seems pretty obvious to me that the board believes the company will be increasing sales rapidly each year and be cash flow positive by the end of 2013 (before taxes and depreciation). I say that because that is what the stockholders were told.


    Good goals in my book. In a month we will see how the company is progressing.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT


    "it is time to force some answers as to the company milestones and goals. There needs to be a way to measure mgt. performance, and if they can't deliver ..... be held accountable."


    Amen to that. We need to be well prepared with the tough, but fair, questions going into the next conference call.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • As long as there are no firm sales on the horizon, I see the stock staying where it is, in the doldrums. The good thing is that management has skin in the game at a much higher breakven point than I do, and their gain is also my gain!
    15 Mar 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • We "know" that a PbC can cycle and has a high charge and discharge rate but, for regenerative braking (ePower), the battery would have to most always be run at a low charge level to be ready to accept the regen surge. What do we know about performance on the low end?
    Does running mostly drained all the time have any long term detrimental effects?


    On the flip side, could losing most of the regen charge still allow the system to be cost effective, if the battery was allowed to trickle back to full?
    15 Mar 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • Greentongue: known 100% DOD cycles 2.5K and stopped there because no one asked for more and it takes about 1 day to do the cycle.


    Lifetime is not an issue.


    The normal range would be 20%-80%, IIRC, and we have in excess of 100K cycles - again IIRC.


    15 Mar 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, the 100k cycles is in a start-stop application where the discharge is 1%. that and the 2500 cycles for a 100% discharge are the only numbers Axion has ever supplied.


    One question I'd like to ask on a call is why ePower believes the PbC can support their application for a five year service life in a truck that would be expected to be driven over 500,000 miles during that time while it will last for only 100,000 miles in what would seem to be a much less demanding usage pattern in the start-stop automobile application.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • ap,
    hmm. Hadn't thought about that one. Good question.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • >apmarshall62 .. I would think that answer would be quite self evident. On average, the city dwelling automobile is the more demanding environment. In 500k miles a class8 tractor trailer doesn't start & stop every 2 miles. Smaller delivery trucks would, I believe, be a better comparison and would have similar life expectancy as autos.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • APM: Correct me if I'm wrong on this one too, but the s/s application works the PbC harder because it has to carry hotel loads, leading to deeper DOD?


    The ePower usage profile is not carrying frequent (was it every mile in the BMW test cycle?) hotel loads? I think that might be the reason.


    15 Mar 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • I do not see any goals met in 2012....a little progress ? maybe.
    To me ePower was a 2013 deal, not '12.


    Statements on the cc like :
    Hold onto your pants, it's gonna be a wild ride
    300% growth yr/yr


    Now I know why the manager from Blackrock/stone laughed on the cc.


    We have talked about an OEM backing or helping AXPW move forward.....
    What IF, last year that TG was having problems raising the $10M ? He had to go to NSC and tell them....that without an order he couldn't raise money?
    AXPW is valuable to NSC, so they gave him an order on paper that they knew they didn't have to take tomorrow, but would need in 9 months. It helped AXPW, did not cost NS any money till they were ready. So NSC threw him a bone, then when TG & Vani ran with the numbers, they got smacked.


    I also do not view AXPW as a "development company" as much now & for the past year. We have a battery that works, they can build it, TG has said as much, when he said "we have done our part"
    So what is missing now is sales, something we have very little of.


    There is a reason why, and shareholders deserve to know now.


    Goals need to be set, milestones established and made public. make it clear the present & future path the company is on with measurements both quarterly & annually.


    I challenge everyone on this APC to compile a list, that as a shareholder, the goals & accomplishments you want to see out of the company in 2013 & 2014. Even list what you hoped for in 2012 and tell how the company succeeded or failed to achieve these.
    Post them.


    As investors, we all need criteria that we want to see to either remain invested or increase our investment.
    15 Mar 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • I am willing to give AXPW some time to show us what sales they can get for the PbC, but on the whole you are right: It is about time they focus (a LOT) more on sales/marketing. Maybe they are doing it and we are just not there yet. I guess time will tell...
    15 Mar 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT - Mercy sold out b/c TG refused to partake in this exercise. I say exercise, b/c he really has no control over the big boys. But on another level, he needs to unleash the beast and have someone put the product into public action. (I think Dr. Buiel would agree)
    15 Mar 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan: When I worked inside a big company, every once in a while some project manager would try to impose (what I perceived as) arbitrary dates on my project w/o even a PSD being in place.


    I never signed off on them until I had done my preliminary work and had knowledge of what I controlled and what I didn't and gotten the dates adjusted to some place that had at least some tenuous relation to reality.


    I think TG, as you allude, knows what's not in his control right now and is saving himself the grief of 'splaining "why x didn't happen when" later on.


    I don't blame him one bit.


    All it costs is some disgruntlement by folks not walking in his shoes. Should he care? I wouldn't in this case as there's nothing one can do when one is the minnow.


    He's not yet in control of Axion's destiny. He's in control of the efforts Axion can make for now.


    I don't blame (potential) shareholders for wanting some yardstick either. But looking at a (probably typical) Orca to minnow relationship and demanding the minnow give a kill date (of the Orca) or you'll fire the minnow seems disconnected from what I perceive as reality.


    15 Mar 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • HTL


    In total agreement - thank you.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • HTL: That is how I see it. Predicting what you don't control is just crystal ball gazing and not very productive.
    15 Mar 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • From the (predominantly) NSC, PA area rainfan site I'm monitoring:


    "Just saw a engine that's covered with a blue tarp on a train just about to the alto tower. First car in consist. Anyone know anything?"


    Alto Tower ... near Altoona:


    Stay tuned. Cross the fingers.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Good catch WTB. Eyes crossed here with fingers as well.


    See, Keep the hood off and bang it around! ;-P


    Sure it wasn't a pink tarp?

    15 Mar 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • wtb, can you explain the "engine with a blue tarp" ?
    15 Mar 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • I love that song...


    Engine with a blue tarp, blue tarp on,
    engine with a blue tarp on (lord, have mercy)
    15 Mar 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • LT ... I know nothing; I'm only guessing ... I've only been monitoring the list for about a month. Never seen any posting like that, but I don't have much of a history to draw on here. All I know is that it was unusual enough for one of the slightly regular posters to note it. So far no one has offered an opinion/guess (other than me ... we'll see if I get laughed out of the group where I'm the ultimate lurker)
    15 Mar 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • This could be NS's effort to surreptitiously move the NS999 without being noticed by the Axionistas. Wonder if we could task NSA with keeping track of its movements.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Millhouse ... well we've certainly been bedeviled ...

    15 Mar 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • I don't get to tell you often enough how much I appreciate your lurking and digging things up. These type things contribute as much as HTL's TA does. It's just great. thanks.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Here's the first reply to my WAG:


    "That's nowhere near being ready. It's still in the shops."


    And number 2:


    "There was a post on TO of something similar coming into Conway a day or two back. Likely an export loco"


    Darn. But at least I generated some kind of info. I don't know anything about Replyer #1, but I'd like to :-)


    Original poster then chimed in:


    "Size wise, it's possible. The unit was without trucks. It looked to be set up for shipment like an export unit. I was driving across the 24th st bridge in Altoona and it was beneath me. Wish I had more time, I would've chased for a pic."


    "Its on the 16N and it looks like its one of those MTA of New York small engines they use in the subways.. Probably coming from Boise Id where the last one came from.."
    15 Mar 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • 03/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol 183300, AvTrSz: 4583
    Min. Pr: 0.2880, Max Pr: 0.3040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2913
    # Buys, Shares: 13 41500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2942
    # Sells, Shares: 27 141800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2904
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.42 (22.6% “buys”), DlyShts 19000 (10.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.40%


    My summary feeling for today is that we may (emphasis on may) have bottomed. The action from 14:06 onward was definite capitulation-like in nature. Several of the usual players did not participate in the ask-side plunge, suggesting that they may become the low asks in the >=$0.30 range if today flushed out the anxious types. Things that suggest possible (near) end of the down leg:
    - 5-7 days down has been recent history followed by a turn up beginning;
    - a $0.2018-$0.38 range reversion to the mean is $0.2909, we a got a little normal overshoot(?);
    - recent support resulting in a reversal seen at $0.288-$0.289 and mid-$0.27 range before that;
    - a new potential support (replacing the failed one) right here with an origin and three touches;
    - re-traced ~50% of the $0.2018-$0.38 range 11/12-1/11 and dropped ~17% off the $0.35 high of 3/5;
    - oscillators I watch are configured similarly to past occurrences preceding an upturn;
    - a possible Elliot wave end, as Mayascribe identified, is right in this area;
    - several “usual suspects” did not participate in yesterday's lemming rush and held asks steady >$0.30.


    Downside risk, beyond the $0.27xx mentioned above, seems to be in the $0.25 and the $0.20 area, although I think this latter one is unlikely to be seen near-term. Looking at some details of today's action ...


    I think the last three days, in aggregate, have been our “whoosh” that I feared might develop, although it's been a rather slow-motion one. We've dropped 17.7% since our high of $0.35 on 3/5, slightly more than half of it since the $0.3195 close on 3/11. And two of the last three days were above the 25-day average volume.


    I expected low volume and continued price weakness today. Through 13:52 we had 7,675 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.2984, pretty much as expected. At 14:06, things changed and we traded another 175.6K at a VWAP of $0.2910 and made our low for the day at the close on 5K at $0.2880.


    This action was started by a relatively infrequent participant, ARCA, at 14:06 when they entered a best ask of $0.295x13K when the current best from 14:00 was $0.3039x8K from ATDF. That almost one-penny drop in the ask was the catalyst. From then until the close it was a battle between ARCA, UBSS and ATDF to get to the head of the sell line. Other normally “semi-usual suspects”, like NITE, CDEL and TEJS mostly held their asks unchanged above $0.30 and chose not to become part of the lemmings' race.


    This action reminds strongly of putting in a bottom. It looks like the ARCA offer triggered a bunch of conditional or stop-loss orders. The timing would be about right too – generally our down legs since we entered the rising trading channel in November has been 5-7 days. Today was our 7th or 8th day down, depending on from which day you start counting. Just prior to entering our rising trading channel we had 17 days of mostly down, ending the leg with a low at $0.20 and a close at $0.235 on Nov. 12.


    The oscillators I watch need little discussion – all stink. Momentum is as weak as it's ever been since 7/19/12. About half of these prior low points led to an upturn either immediately or after a sideways trade of a week or two. Williams %R and stochastic are now in oversold.


    Well, that potential new support line wasn't – over the six days since we failed to push back above the old rising trading channel support (would be resistance now), we were steady down, penetrated the new potential line, putzed around there two days and departed southward decisively today. So it's certainly not in play. In looking for the trend, I've got a descending – at 0.88%/day – support we are apparently riding lower. We've bottomed on this line 3 of the last six days. Tomorrow's potential support would be ~$0.285 if that line holds.


    I've also added another new potential slightly rising supporting trend line originating at the low of 12/14 with touches at lows of 1/2, 2/22-26 (three trading days) and 3/13. We closed slightly below it today – a normal overshoot? If we close below it a couple more days, it's out of play too. If we come back above, I think we have a confirmed support line that slowly rises.


    Our low, and close, today was right at the low of 2/22-2/26 (three trading days) of $0.288-$0.289. It's possible we've found support there. Looking back over a one-year chart, there's several cases I see where it acted as support and resistance while we were in sideways trading.


    If the two above don't hold, our nearest potential price support, from a recent area of sideways churn (while we were within our rising trading channel) would be around $0.275x-$0.27. But those areas are not “strong” as I see no other times on a one-year chart where they were in play and had influence.


    If the Elliot Wave stuff Maya was kind enough to look at holds true, we won't go as low as $0.28 – but that was if we had identified the proper start of a wave and which wave it was and we don't get an overshoot of that too.


    We are near my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, but not yet pushing down on it. If a typical move to the middle were to appear, we would be moving back towards $0.31 with today's upper and lower values, $0.2826 and $0.3387.


    While looking for where our bottom might be I reverted to the old, and reasonably reliable, “reversion to the mean” consideration. In many cases this has turned out to be at least temporary support and even provided some reversals. Using the low of 11/12/12, $0.2018 (coincidentally just before we started our two-month ride up in the ascending trading channel) and the high of $0.38 on 1/11/13, we get a mean of $0.2909. We're there, with a minor overshoot. If we use a Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace instead, we get $0.2588. Lots of folks believe in the Fibonacci series, but I find the 50% mark to be a much more frequent occurrence.


    On my experimental stuff, we see the average trade size now has a trend of recovering to more normal levels. Today we got back into the low mid-range of what I think is retail. The buy:sell, although low, avoided going down to, and below, its recent lows.


    The low is sitting right atop the calculated trend line for the new ~10-month chart. Last time it got to that trend line the price action was sideways for about 6 days and then we started a leg up to $0.35. Let's hope we get at least as good a result this time.


    My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken. My newer version is in agreement. The original has the merest early hint that we might be preparing to reverse. The newer version is giving a slightly stronger hinting of this on the near-term calculations, but a weakening on the longer-term calculations. The shorter-term ones reacting first is what I would expect. Three of them agree today.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • thanks HTL, the one thing I noticed that seems to agree with you is the lack of participation by some active MM's, suggesting to me they are net neutral now and have no interest in pushing it lower.


    I view this as a positive, MM's letting retail dictate the price. That should with low volume confirm your chances of it climbing higher in the next 2-3 days....short of a nasty stock issue being the main caveat.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Hi wtblanchard!!


    Muchas gracias. good information.-Carlos
    15 Mar 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Right now I'm wondering how many of us following this blog have dry powder set aside for Axion "lightning". We have a long list of potential sources for this good news (BMW, NSC, mysterious "other" auto and trucking OEMs, 'Cubes, 'Hubs, strategic sugar, etc)...


    But I'm just curious how many of us still have some money squirreled away with a potential Axion destination in mind.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • good question TB.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • TB:As I mentioned in a past concentrator, I took some profits on my wife's account over a couple weeks to maintain domestic tranquillity. So her account is ~50% cash and small buy orders have been entered now.


    In my account, I sold nothing, but have some dry powder from prior trading block sales a couple months(?) back and have small buys entered on that account to.


    The risk seems low here with good upside possible.


    15 Mar 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not hanging around just to irritate people. I'm on the sidelines protecting my limited capital but I want back in. However, I need a reason to get back in. Either good news or a positive stock chart plus the capital raise behind us is what I'm looking for. I am just no longer willing to watch my funds going down the drain when they are completely safe elsewhere and making money in the insane bull market we have now. My new stock trading rules are simple. "What have you done for me TODAY?"
    15 Mar 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • In any stock there's room for a few aberrant hands to swing in and out with pocket change. Investors who want to position for the long term can't trade that way. Their only choice is to accumulate a position and ride out the storm. Prices go up when there are more buyers then sellers and they stay flat or go down when there are more sellers than buyers. Swing trading small blocks works. It does not work for holders who collectively control a hundred million shares, more or less.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • I will likely buy a small quantity of trading shares after the offering if the offering comes in at or below my price.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • How do you answer your own question TB? :)
    15 Mar 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: Yes.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • JP "aberrant hands" LoL!


    It's all in the adjectives you choose! :-))


    15 Mar 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, his choice of words is so oddly amusing... no wonder he is universally loved...
    15 Mar 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • The collective 100M shares are owned by many individuals all with their own risk tolerance, financial circumstances, etc. As individuals, even in a large group who control 100M shares, not everyone has to bite the bullet everyday. Some people can just say adios. If everyone tries to hit the pay window at once -well- now there's a disaster.


    I'm swing trading the funds I had left after they declined 70% in Axion. I had to reload those lost dollars to even swing trade as I pass the time waiting for Axion to establish a firm positive direction. Sitting on the sidelines cost me a small brokerage fee. Yep, I'm small potatoes and I reported my actual holdings when I sold. However, losing a lot of small potatoes is better than losing them all. What I had left would make a meal - less than that hardly french fries.


    At one point I and my family members at my urging had $28,000 invested in Axion. Only my mother escaped large losses after I recovered the 7500 she was down and got her out at .62. Familiar number .62 - AXPW's last high I think.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Incidentally, one definition of aberrant is "straying from the right or normal way." If losing 70% of your capital is the "right way" to invest long-term no wonder the market crashes periodically. Everyone "averaging down" finally runs out of money!
    15 Mar 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Bangwhiz: IMO, you have nothing that needs defending. Everyone here for any length of time knows of the varieties you mention in resources, risk-tolerance, ... And we are each here to obtain the best benefit we can within the individual parameters we suffer with.


    For myself, if you had to swing trade every single day to meet your goals I would still offer my unqualified endorsement of your actions.


    As to "aberrant", many words, including this one have annotations and connotations. Guess which applies to this word in common understanding most frequently? :-))


    Anyway, don't let that stuff get under your skin - it's all good and (usually) friendly and with tolerant understanding I think.


    15 Mar 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe you guys are confusing the word "abhorrent" which means hated with aberrant which just means abnormal. In other words, a few abnormal hands might be swing trading with pocket change, while the majority are long term investors.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • JAK: defs # 2 nd 3 from wiktionary:


    (literally, figuratively) Straying from the right way; deviating from morality or truth. [First attested in the mid 18th century.][3]


    (botany, zoology) Deviating from the ordinary or natural type; exceptional; abnormal. [First attested in the mid 19th century.][3]  [quotations ▼]


    There might be variations in common understanding in different regions, but I *think* a common understanding in my experience in social settings is that first one.


    Abhorrent is a whole different beast.


    15 Mar 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • There is one more point I would like to make before I crawl back into my cave for the day.....


    For the past couple of years, any major could have taken a majority stake in AXPW cheap. For example, usually with 1/3 (33%)of the stock you can control the company.
    You could do that with AXPW for about $12 M at .30 per sh. or 50% for $19 M.


    Anyone wonder why they havn't? It's cheap even for a defensive move.


    So take it one level higher...Even if it wasn't worth the investment for the past two years, let's take the positive view for AXPW. They are nearing some sales, things looking better. Think how easy now someone could gain control of the company and just how cheap it could be done ?


    I view this as one of the biggest "black swan event" risks for us as shareholders. 10 people putting up less than $2 M each could control the company. or so what even if it took $50 M. That's still doable.
    We could literally wake up any time after the next raise with new owners.... if this was JCI, they would not be working for existing AXPW shareholders, they would look out for JCI shareholders.


    This is another reason to now address some of the tough questions and get answers.
    My math could be off and prices could vary, but you get the principle.....this could be happening as we speak too.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • LT,
    What you have posed is simply not true.


    No cmpany could bu conrolling inerest (1/3) wihout disclosing. That would drive the price skyhigh and then they would not buy. To buy in on the new shares they would need board approval.


    To somehow imply that current shareholders are in danger is simply not true.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • TG learned about the misery of having one big stockholder after the Gelbaum placement. In 2009 he set out to undo that power dynamic by creating four equally big dogs. I think it highly unlikely that Tom will ever put effective control into a single investors hands again.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT: It's hard to see any major investor taking a large position while certain well-discussed "big uglies" were dumping shares for reasons totally unrelated to Axion and all of *us* knew. I think any potential larger investors did too.


    If they had taken a position I would've been surprised.


    Personally, I'm glad they didn't have an interest. My payoff will be much larger, as a result of their and others' myopic vision, down the road.


    The fact is that as time passes the business opportunities strengthen, albeit not as quickly as most would prefer. But we've been conditioned by the overall markets to now be ADD and demand immediate gratification.


    Some of us older farts are contrarian in nature and defy that impetus.


    15 Mar 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • John,


    What if some strategic investor saw the potential in AXPW after the 2009 placement, they could have approached Quercus -who was apparently ready to bail out- and bought out their shares from them. That strategic investor would effectively be controlling substantial amount of shares by now. Would such a move have required official reporting and the Axion board's approval? I don't know...
    15 Mar 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • There would have been reporting requirements, but I think a block purchase would have been very hard to negotiate because i don't think anyone would have predicted that any of the 2009 big buyers would be sellers. That's still at the top of my "you ain't gonna believe this $hit" list and probably always will be. I was absolutely certain that all four of the big 2009 buyers would be firmly in place for years. It just goes to show how very wrong people can be from time to time. I have a higher degree of confidence that the Axionistas who bout all those shares will be far more stable and predictable, but that's belief, not knowledge.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • I am usually a very patient person, but the fact that market is soaring makes the opportunity cost dear, and I would hope that when the Axion stock starts moving upwards on strong volume, it will make us very very happy :)
    15 Mar 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, Oh yes a group can. You don't report unless it's over 5% of the theoretically a group of 10-11 could own 4.9% each and not report it until they were ready . Buffett takes 5% stakes all the time and you don't hear about it until after he has it..
    Even with low volume, one could gradually accumulate and have half a stake without much rise in price.


    It may be unlikely, but it is doable.


    JP, last years investors flipped and didn't care who bought it.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • TG may control the issue, but has no control over that person's sale after the designated time stated in the issue.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT > The Feds are very concerned about the possibility of market manipulation or creeping acquisitions by "groups acting in concert." the regulations require any such group to report as a single purchaser for purposes of the reporting rules. That means a group of 10 people who each bought 4.9% would get fitted for orange jumpsuits before thet got anywhere close to effective control.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • JP: "fitted for orange jumpsuits ".


    Unless we could obtain TBTF status - then they slap our wrist, tell us don't do again, levy a relatively minuscule fine, write some more (useless and often unenforced) rules, ...


    <sigh> Unfortunately I have trouble envisioning us achieving such status. Probably a good thing - I would become extremely conflicted then. :-((


    15 Mar 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • "For the past couple of years, any major could have taken a majority stake in AXPW cheap. For example, usually with 1/3 (33%)of the stock you can control the company.
    You could do that with AXPW for about $12 M at .30 per sh. or 50% for $19 M."


    :-) Cheap is an ambiguous, relative term. Axion could be "cheap" to a major at $12 M - $19M which they sitting around without competing claims for use and expensive at that price for a 'major' without that much unobligated cash laying around.


    Opportunity cost is real whether or not one is holding Axion.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • LT,


    This isn't Blue Star Air and I don't think there are secret investors building their stakes with nefarious intentions.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • I have some dry powder.


    15 Mar 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the reply. I hope we hear from many others with a similar condition...
    15 Mar 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • I will buy more in event of news, good or bad.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • TB: And let's hope they don't keep it *too* dry for *too* long - as their target moves down range, more and more powder is needed to get the "ball" on target with any "knock-down" power left.


    15 Mar 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • At some point the additional capital will flow from outside the current stockholders from the greater market as the news penetrates beyond the Axionista Event Horizon.


    Its easy for those deeply steeped in the Axion story, who have been tracking the fierce analysis and tracking done here, to be puzzled that "everyone" doesn't see what we see...


    LOL, I can only imagine the day when a flood of newbies comes cruising in here from the short attention span theatre (Brand Y, etc) and start lecturing us about Axion's batteries. This always happens sooner or later in any focused and long-running Concentrator.


    Just for the record, and so that I can be the first at something here, I will respond to those forthcoming (but to be anticipated with hope) interlopers:


    "No Duh".
    15 Mar 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • A smidge of powder in the keg I'm sitting on and sweating on. Hope it's still dry when that moment comes!


    Like others, waiting for news to move things one way or another. I can still "average down" at current pps, but I would really rather be averaging up!
    15 Mar 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • I understand the averaging down process. I understand the averaging up process. Just never understood why buying at the top is sought after.
    And somewhere along the averaging up one has to top out. With fewer shares than if they had simply bought at the bargain basement price.
    15 Mar 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Dry powder here as well, at least at the moment. Currently weighing the choice of increasing my AXPW holdings ahead of news against reducing exposure and redeploying those funds elsewhere.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist you have to have a working crystal ball to buy all you are going to buy at the bottom. Averaging up is easy when your next buy puts your average price well below the current price and you have a pretty clear vision of the road ahead - and plenty of margin to save your bacon if things start looking mushy. Much better than trying to peer around a curtain.
    15 Mar 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Yes Bang,
    Its so easy until you buy in on the rise and then have the stock drop again ( like Axion after its run up last year).


    I don't care what stock. They go up and down. Its no easier to catch a knife falling down or going up. The stock ( IMHO) can go either way after you buy.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • That's why you use trailing stop loss orders when you are ahead - either to save a portion of your profit, or if you aren't up much, to get out without bending to much metal. If I had done that with Axion instead of giving them a blank check down I wouldn't be in my current situation. I would have been out around $1-$1.10 when it fell from $1.27.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sure, a trader always has the answer. Just buy at this stage , get out at this one. I have done that. But one never knows when the trend ends. Its still a guessing game as to whether the stock will continue up or fall a little every day until you are back to square one.


    If you follow all the correct rules you will always sell way early because the rules don't allow for a skyrocket up.
    Just my experience or stupidity talking.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • I am not going to let a position fall a little bit everyday for very long before I'm outta the stock. As for sky rockets up I had a trigger order for a long time on AXPW when it was in the 20's to buy X amount of shares at market if the price was greater than .40 cents. No one ever lost a lot of money with the come late, leave early rule. My sitting in Axion as it went down from over a dollar to 20 cents violated every rule of trading logic that exists. I'll never make that mistake with a stock again.


    I'm learning to read the chart, look for known catalysts that are expected within a given time frame (and if the catalyst is dicey, enjoy the run up but don't stay for the curtain raise) and then buy in 1/3 a pop over time and always have a trailing stop. No one says that if you get out your can't get back in. There will be many opportunities to make money on Axion if it goes from today to $10. I can miss the jump from .30 to .90 and not cry for a minute. Lot's of fish get away from you in the market. In a few hours you'll find another one to try to catch.
    16 Mar 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Where have we seen these thoughts before?

    15 Mar 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • I sent Brookville an email a couple of days ago asking about the BESS on the cool 2014 "Streetcars" they're selling to Dallas Area Rapid Transit. I asked several questions including (as a last resort) when we might expect more published info. So far no reply.


    This may be a case where phone calls are much more likely to get info than "in writing."


    Anyone enjoy or skilled at "cold calling?" Maybe time to take that Junior College Journalism class :-)


    Here's the number from their contact page:


    Phone: +1 (814) 849-2000


    PR I posted in the previous Concentrator:
    15 Mar 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • 4 years of lurking, saving my allowance... Slowly pulling trigger...
    15 Mar 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Footleg, Careful today. 10 to 20 share blocks might push it around! Almost noon and under 10k shares traded! Some of the long term investors are probably getting flashbacks.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: Good caveat too - after a "flush", often low volume as observers and participants draw back and bit and wait for thing to settle a bit.


    That's one of the reasons I entered my two small buys today - if there's any impatient or spooked sellers sitting there, I think they'll be likely to let a few shares go after a few hours of no action ... just like yesterday (14:06). But the flood will likely be a trickle today as only a few are left that didn't exit at this price level yesterday.


    HAH! Got 'em just now (actually a few minutes ago while typing this)!


    15 Mar 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL, I agree.


    Did you happen to see who the MM was that placed the approx. 30k share block at 0.29 USD and then pulled it?


    Good luck with your new shinny pennies! :)
    15 Mar 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: couldn't tell who. It entered at 11:56 (38.9K) and was gone before I could switch to Level II and see who it was (time & sales has no identity shown).


    I can't make a good guess either as there was no aggregate prior asks I was tracking around that size, so if it was someone moving a prior ask I might have been able to tell.


    If/when I get my Java edu far enough along to get the data feed going, might have more data available.


    15 Mar 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL, The last few days I've been seeing someone throwing out rather large ask blocks near the bid. Large considering recent volume.
    15 Mar 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: I think we know - UBSS just put a $0.29x30K order in. I believe I saw them with an 8K trade earlier? That would make them the likely suspect.


    15 Mar 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL, I was hoping you saw that this time. The usual MM of late. Don't know if they are serious or shaking the bush to see what falls out.
    15 Mar 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: But the weakness today has really been predominately all ATDF, especially late in the day today, as is usual.


    And as usual, they are on both sides late in the day. They just traded 33K $0.2780$0.2881 at ~15:06. Same ol', same ol' with them.


    15 Mar 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL! Same ole same ole. So we wait for the earnings call I guess.


    Joined you in a nibble today. ;)
    15 Mar 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Picked up some today as well but at .29
    15 Mar 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: That "They just traded 33K $0.2780$0.2881 at ~15:06" has a typo.


    S/B "They just traded 33K $0.2878-$0.2881 at ~15:06".


    That "780" was supposed to be "78-" and an "8" was supposed to be after the "2".


    I think it's time to dissemble my keyboard and clean it out - I've noticed lots of stick-keys induced dropped characters over the last few weeks.


    Since I don't seem to have the habit of reading before posting, the keyboard cleaning is going to be mandatory.


    16 Mar 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • I was mulling around - while munching on a leg of fried chicken - that perhaps our top 5 Asian producer may have been, or still waiting on results from the BMW third party validation. I'm wondering how much of that information, if not all, would flow back to Axion and how much of that information Axion would be free to share with other parties.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • I hate the two weeks leading up to the year end conference call.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Metro, I'm sure that information concerning the battery is pretty free flowing between the two parties. As for information on BMW's system integration details. There probably is some level of sharing but only what is necessary to develop and understand the battery and how it is best utilized to service the application requirements. Any detail on the system shared during this process is probably restricted via the NDA.


    There is no doubt that Axion will learn from this experience additional capabilities/possibili... via the relationship but sharing it with others will only be possible if BMW allows it and this is probably not going to happen.


    Remember that Honda tried to control Axion when they did the PbC installation on one of their vehicles. If I recall correctly Axion wanted access to their code for the BMS and Honda said no unless certain agreements were signed. All based on my memory. John can probably give us a clearer picture of the event I'm mentioning.
    15 Mar 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Same here John! This is probably the worst time ever for investors in R&D companies that are transitioning into viable commercial ones. No one knows what to expect, what are sales going to be like over the following years, etc...
    15 Mar 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • If BMW is sharing the results of the 3rd party testing then they aren't doing it with just anyone who asks.


    I would also point out that BMW has a technology-sharing partnership with Toyota.


    I'm not sure, is Toyota a 'top 5 Asian automaker'? /sarc


    15 Mar 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,
    Using the assumption that Combatec was doing the 3rd party validation for BMW, would Combatec have performed 3rd party validation using a protocol on individual PbC batteries, or perhaps could Combatec have done validation on the PbC connected to a type of "complete system" to see if it performs well within the total configuration. Just wondering what may have been a similar type experience for you, or potentially no