Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (349)
Track new comments
  • Winner winner chicken dinner!
    15 Mar 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Good for you!
    15 Mar 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Followers up to 221. Steady growth.
    15 Mar 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Well, someone had to spoil the day and let 5K go at $0.281 in the next-to-last trade of the day. Until then $0.2875 was looking solid with the worst being $0.2878x10K at 15L06:23.


    But our magician, I guess, saved the day getting a $0.295 trade off to close us up 2.43%.




    15 Mar 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • It's good to see some magicians appearing on the buy side as well as the sell side. There's no doubt in my mind that some forces want to drive the price down. Knowing that others want to at least keep the price stable is comforting.
    15 Mar 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • ;^)


    Bit the bullet for 1000 shares.
    15 Mar 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    I'll say it again. I think there is someone trying to control/lower the price of Axion's stock. There have been several times where I've seen 5K of stock either being bought or sold at the beginning and end of the day, or during the day, and it's always to bring the price of the stock back down.


    I'll go adjust my tinfoil hat now.
    15 Mar 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech: I don't disagree ... or agree. It's one of those doggone things that we'll never know and we've got enough of them already. =>8-O


    Having said that, my TFH suggests it's likely because there is *nothing* I trust in this so-called market.


    But I try to avoid dwelling on it while doing my TA thing because I'm sure it would skew my attempts to understand the implications of coming action in what I try to see.


    Then I would likely suffer "confirmation bias" without realizing it.


    <*sigh*> So I just keep slogging.


    15 Mar 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, You're right we will never know. But I'm with John and LabTech. I'm not watching that closely but there are just too many times I'm seeing transactions that just don't make sense if a rational investor was trying to maximize their exit point. All day long we had activity around .29 USD and right at the end of the day someone just had to get out at the low of the day with a woppin' 5k shares. Come on.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • I'm welcoming the Ides of March on the assumption that we will get good news sooner, rather than later.
    15 Mar 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • ZBB Energy Corporation Announces $10 Million Common Stock Purchase Agreement With Aspire Capital Fund, LLC

    15 Mar 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • This seems like a very good deal to me but I am less than novice on these things. Would someone care to share their thoughts? (disclosure: I am very long ZBB)
    15 Mar 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Search APC #46 for "Aspire". Aspire Capital did the same deal with Beacon Power and it was described as "death spiral financing".
    15 Mar 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Tim,
    Getting an investor to agree to purchase up to 10 Million in stock at no discount is an amazing deal. ZBB doesn't have to sell more than it needs. No discount. If the price rises so be it. This makes the company stronger. With all the irons ZBB has working right now the last thing they need to worry about is financing. Hopefully their strategic partnerships worldwide will start to pay off.
    Here is why they can stop raising funds. "Our sales funnel currently exceeds $38 million. As such, we presently do not expect to need to raise additional equity capital in the near term other than under this agreement; however the Company may enter into a strategic transaction in which equity capital is issued. "


    ( disclosure- long ZBB also)
    15 Mar 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • At first blush, those look like pretty favorable terms for ZBB. Of course, I guess there might be something odious hidden therein. If Axion announced tomorrow though that they had secured a similar deal, it might be disappointing to some of us in some ways, but it doesn't appear toxic...
    15 Mar 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Something just occurred to me though... any resale restrictions? 'cause I guess Aspire *could*, once it had enough shares, do things to try to keep the price down as they ultimately bought more... not sure how/if that would work... but probably not an invalid question...
    15 Mar 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • I think the fact that it frees them up to manufacture and increase their backlog with no other need for financing kinda says it all. I would jump for joy if Axion could get market value for up to 2 years with no discount.
    Maybe TG should contact Aspire Capital Fund, LLC. of Illinois.


    Hey TG. Contact Aspire Capital Fund. They are in Illinois.
    15 Mar 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • User432382, for Beacon it DID turn into a death spiral. However, I am finding others that seem to be doing okay. I will spend some of my weekend on this. Wish I knew more about how these things worked...
    15 Mar 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • JP can decode the deal for sure.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting deal. Aspire is located in Chicago and ZBB went live with its Illinois Institute of Tech demonstration last year, which is also in Chicago.
    16 Mar 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • It appears the principal of Aspire Capital that organized the deal - Christos Komissopoulos - is also an adjunct professor at IIT.

    16 Mar 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • I'd add my two cents but posters that are disruptive have their comments removed... and that can't be good for paid clicks.
    15 Mar 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • >SimpleInstrument ... There is a difference between 2 cents worth & wooden nickel worthless.
    15 Mar 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • There is a difference between proving something (patents) and selling something. You'll soon know the difference.
    16 Mar 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Obama says US vehicles should shift entirely off oil

    15 Mar 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Lord, how I am tempted...
    15 Mar 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Then buy everyone an EV Mr. President. Fund it like the war in Irag or the WPA back in FDR's days! Oh drats! I forgot about that little grid stability problem, or material limitations, customer acceptance, or crap like that.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Political comment:


    Govt grants for research don't bother me. Heck, they might even be a good thing.


    Using public money and scarce resources to fund production of uneconomical and impractical items that unfairly compete with valuable items, to me, is worse than a sin.


    16 Mar 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • For the vast sweep of tax policy history subsidies helped pay for the creation of productive assets that increased GDP and made society richer by increasing aggregate economic activity.


    Over the last 30 years we've sen increasing reliance on subsidies that only benefit a preferred class of consumer and end up sucking the life out of the economy from malinvestment.
    16 Mar 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • >D.McHattie ... along a similar line, you might find this Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing loan program news interesting.

    16 Mar 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • John, Seems it's systemic. Not just here but other countries as well for sure. Just look at the solar companies in China as one of many examples. I often fear that this causes problems for new technology as well since winners are not allowed to be nurtured since the weak don't end up where they should.


    Fed Throws Junk Bond Lifeline to Weak Companies


    "The central bank's cheap-money policies have allowed borderline companies to get low-cost financing thanks to investors who are thirsting for yield and buying risky bonds as the Fed keeps its target funds rate near zero.


    While that's been a boon for poorly rated firms, it also poses the threat that companies that otherwise might fail are getting artificial support and in danger of causing substantial economic damage once interest rates rise."



    On Chinese solar.


    Shining a Light on Too Big to Fail in China

    16 Mar 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • It's just the "shift entirely off oil" bit that sets me off. It's so utterly unserious, cynical, and detached from reality that it's offensive, disturbing, and insulting.


    18. Million. Barrels. A. Day.


    I mean, yeah, right after we drain the ocean with a teaspoon.


    Now if he had said *imported* oil, and gave say a 15 yr timeline, then perhaps he could be taken seriously.
    16 Mar 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • This Electric Koolaid has a funny taste. But I'm not worried, because our leader has promised we will all feel very groovy.


    Hop on the bus and Bottoms Up!

    16 Mar 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • For R&D the money may be well spent, I have hope yet.
    The "shift entirely off oil" is not a possibility at present. Yes some stupid things may be done in that regard.
    But R&D is the place to spend the money. I give him points for saying it. I just hope Obama has learned and future POTUSs follow through with R&D and do it well.
    16 Mar 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • I have so many issues with the stated rationales it is hard to decide where to start.


    Wean the U.S. from oil entirely and we would still have national security vulnerabilities to security of oil supplies as long as any of our trading partners and/or allies continued to rely on oil.


    Not add to our deficit by diverting revenues from the general fund to a politically controlled slush fund? Saving the environment? In whose reality?


    'Non-partisan' coalition of generals, admirals, and 'leading CEOs' is code for collusive crony capitalism.
    16 Mar 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Really? Entirely off oil? Check this out:


    And that's just 144 of 6000 petroleum based products.


    He probably forgot to include "imported".
    16 Mar 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Think he supposes the world could go back to hunting/killing whales for oil?
    16 Mar 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Do whales count as sustainable?
    17 Mar 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin: No, they count as "protected".


    17 Mar 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Except in the London financial markets. Open season there.


    Hey, are there some Whales lurking under the jolly waves of Wall Street? It just could be sustainable if those Whales could be brought to the surface...
    17 Mar 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • 48, Not my intent. For info. Being good.
    May have been posted before and this has just been re-dated. Axion Mmentioned as being covered.


    Research and Markets has Announced the Addition of the "Batteries and Supercapacitors for the Smart Grid - 2013" Report to their Offering

    15 Mar 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • I know it's been asked, and I don't know if it's been answered (so, sorry if I missed it), but why did AGM get the stamp of approval if the Big Boys are so concerned about putting their reputations behind a new product? Not that I'm bitchin' about AGM, because an important light-bulb moment for me was JP's explanation that AGM capacity IS PbC capacity; but why was such poor performance greenlit? (Greenlighted?)
    15 Mar 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • footleg,
    Again I will try to explain this misconception. AGM costs around $100 apiece for a Start/Stop AGM. A PbC cost $300 today. The AGM degenerates from the 3rd to the 8th month. If it is replaced three times the price is equal. Even though auto manufacturers would only need to buy one PbC, two to three AGMs might be cheaper.


    For all Autos that require regenerative braking an AGM won't do and a PbC is the only viable affordable alternative.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Foot
    AGM is the best available technology.
    The Govt can't get on their case if there is nothing better.
    'It's not our fault', talk to the battery makers.
    As yet Li Ion is not seriously available and can't handle heat or cold without a support system keeping the temp with in range. (Imagine putting a TMS (Thermal Management System) in with a starter battery running off of the battery. While there may be better Li Ion on the way it is not yet available in relevant scale if at all.


    PbC will work but we are a Podunk company that can't deliver at relevant scale yet either.
    Basically as long as everyone ignore Axion we don't exist as a solution. If we get one, then the rest will eventually have to fess up.
    But one is not real yet.
    With ePower and NSC they could possibly be forced anyway.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • And the automakers hide behind the "best available" or "proven" solution and the PbC is neither at the moment. This will change with a design win and when production ramps...
    15 Mar 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist: Where did you get the cost of $300? Is that Axion's cost, for a 12v battery? Or, is this retail cost? I don't ever recall seeing that figure.


    Thinking I need to go back to the Norfolk sale, and the Naval sale, and do some math; with in mind that it's quite possible the naval sale was a 12v PbC, and the Norfolk sale was 16v.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    Not trying to pick figures out of the air. But, the original target was $250 for a PbC. NS was around $400 with a BMS in place. I assumed that a S/S large order component would make the price around $300.
    No science involved. Simply round numbers for government work.( so to speak)
    15 Mar 2013, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Futurist,
    I understand the cost/supply constraints in automotive manufacturing (thanks to the likes of iindelco, et al), and it sounds like you're saying that bargain crap passes their tests easier than expensive functional product does. OK (not sure where my misconception is).


    What I'm getting at is the only chink in the armor (that has pestered me out of years of lurking) is this question of testing, Testing, TESTING the PbC to make sure it does what we say it does, and yet the AGM doesn't do what they say it does (or doesn't for very long), but that's alright (because it's cheap)(and available).


    To me this doesn't jibe with the notion of the preciousness of their reputations. It won't "keep me up at night," but it is still a chink.


    15 Mar 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • footleg, maybe this will help. The AGM is a proven battery that has proven to be the best battery for normal applications for two or three decades. (I'm guessing at the time) We now have a need for a much better battery that can stand up to 100 times more charges and discharges. It has to take and expend energy 5 to 10 times faster. There is no other commercially available battery that meets the need. Since AGM is the best established battery, it takes the place of the best available battery. All other new technologies will have to survive the rigorous rounds of testing that automotive and other commercial operations require. Once the PbC has passed the testing, is used commercially, and is mass produced, it should take the place AGM now holds. If PbC beats all other newcomers to the punch, all other industries that need the qualities of the PbC will come running to adopt it.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • I would also add that even when the AGM deteriorates it still starts the car when needed.


    When the AGM deteriorates it doesn't disable the whole car, just the start/stop system.


    So the impact on the driver of a rapidly deteriorated AGM is pretty minor and most drivers don't even bother to complain about it.


    That's how the automakers have gotten away with AGM in their stop/start systems, reputation intact.


    16 Mar 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • "NS was around $400 with a BMS in place."


    The initial NSC contract amount totaled $475k of which $400k was thought for batteries. Subsequent info disclosed the battery count for the NS999 had dropped from 1,080 in the original design to 864 in the re-designed/rebuilt NS999. $400k for 864 batteries amounts to $463 per battery.
    16 Mar 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: Are you ignoring the unknown cost of the BMS for some reason?


    16 Mar 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • FWIW I tend to ignore the BMS cost because BMS devopment can be a chore but once the BMS is developed it's mostly software duplication. When you factor In the self balancing a PbC BMS is way simpler and cheaper.
    16 Mar 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • On a $475k contract with $400k for batteries, $75k would be available for other costs including some parts of a BMS. One needs to keep in mind that NSC itself participated in the testing and could well have designed and built the BMS with input from Axion.
    16 Mar 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Agreed regenerative braking is the key and that roll-out is more important than plain vanilla start-stop. Thus we still may be years early here; hopefully Axion has enough fuel for the journey.
    18 Mar 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • "... the perception by some OEMs of the AGM being an acceptable alternative is going to come crashing down sooner than we think. "
    I think that is actually good for Axion since that just gives a longer head start. As long as other companies are not seriously working on an alternative, time lost is Axion's gain.
    15 Mar 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • I image all the OEMs working feverishly to find something better to offer to cover their ASSEtS in light of AGM's failings, but all of that scrambling is occurring behind walls  of NDAs, so it would seem hard to verify that they are "not seriously working on an alternative." That's the problem of not knowing what we don't know.
    15 Mar 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, all, and I agree with Axion's rightful place in the sun, when it comes. I like what you said, Froggy, about "best available technology," and it makes sense with the AGM (though it rankles the anti-planned obsolescence part of me to no end), but I'll just accept it. AGM is the best available technology (there, I said it). So they tested it and said, well, this things going to blow (figuratively) in 6 mos, a year tops... OK, go with that, it's all we got. Fine, because it is the best available technology (twice). So along comes PbC. Test it. Hey, this thing works way better than what we got now. But the response is not 'go with it,' it's 'test it some more.'


    I'm stuck in this world of: bad product = bad for reputation. Good product = good for reputation. Choose good. Duh? Podunkhood is a problem that a wave of any strategic partner/financing wand could fix.


    Edit: and jveal the historical perspective helps quite a bit. AGM is what was on the shelf.
    15 Mar 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • I think it may also have to do with the fact that all the AGMs are coming from very established manufacturers which have been OEM suppliers for years.. That's a lot fewer hurdles to clear to get AGM into a car. On the other end of the spectrum, it's always kind of bothered me how quickly it seemed that Li-ion got into cars. But all I can conclude is that for all the cats and dogs mild hybrids out there Li-ion and NiMH were kinda the only games in town... OEM's, if they were going to field a hybrid of any type, had to choose some flavor of those. AGM, and/or carbon-enhanced AGM were just not in the running for true hybrids. And for BEV were totally out of the question. Whereas, Li-ion probably gained some synergy from all the work being done trying to come up with a viable EV. So maybe some comfort gained there. But bottom line, with no other options OEM's had to turn to Li-ion/NiMH if they wanted to play in the hybrid space... and of course we don't know how long they were hung up in testing those. But to date it's still really only not that great a total number of vehicles. Toyota with their head start obviously did a lot of their homework a long time ago, and it's really only recently that the prius is seriously ramping into significant numbers...
    15 Mar 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • and it's really only recently that the prius is seriously ramping into significant numbers...


    $4.00 gas is the catalyst...not the battery. When a consumer goes to buy a car, they listen to the salesperson, read the sticker on the window about price, fuel mileage, etc.
    Until the car companies have to print the truth on mileage, nothing changes.
    16 Mar 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • Global AGM capacity was insignificant until a few years ago and flooded batteries accounted for well over 95% of the market. AGM was generally viewed as a better battery, but nobody was willing to pay the price premium. That made flooded batteries "best available" since they were the only products available at relevant scale.


    Since 2008 the build rate for new AGM plants has been phenomenal. While capacity was a couple million AGMs per year in the last decade current capacity is an order of magnitude higher.


    The PbC is an AGM variant that can't be built in a flooded battery plant. So while we can complain that the PbC is better than AGM, the reality is the industry is building future electrode customers (e.g. new AGM plants) at a feverish pace and pursuing today's "best available" is setting the perfect stage for tomorrow's "best available."
    16 Mar 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • 48xxxx, for the first decade the HEV space was all NiMH. The shift to lithium is hyped as an "advance" but the truth is that the shift was forced by resource constraints. The M in NiMH is the rare earth metal lanthanum and the planet can't produce enough to satisfy current demand, much less additional demands in automotive.


    Toyotas brilliance was locking down their lanthanum and NiMH battery supply chain and leaving their competitors out in the cold.


    Lithium is a Plan B solution, not the preferred embodiment.
    16 Mar 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the important clarification John. I wasn't sure and so tried to keep to generalities but still make the point: AGM had a low hurdle and with lithium for hybrids they didn't have much other choice. So it kinda prompts the question: if NiMH is the most ideal full-hybrid battery, but will never be available in meaningful world-scale, and Li-ion is not the preferred solution either, could that open the door at all for PbC, or some future improved/optimized version of it? I'm thinking now of ePower and the fact that they haven't gone with/tried lithium (at least yet, as far as i know)... I still wonder if the ePower/PbC drivetrain configuration is successful, then what potential, if any, it might have to be downscaled to somewhat smaller utility vehicles-- uhaul trucks, delivery vans, utility trucks, large pickup trucks, etc
    16 Mar 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Hybrids need small, light, high voltage batteries, which is a tall order for lead. Axion is working on the challenge, but currently focusing on markets where size and weight aren't mission critical.
    16 Mar 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    "and it's really only recently that the prius is seriously ramping into significant numbers..."


    Not as much as you might think.
    Or not as much as I thought anyway.


    Total US hybrid sales


    In 2006 .. in 2012
    252,636 .. 269,210


    Total US original Prius sales
    In 2006 ... in 2012
    106,971 .. 128,064


    16 Mar 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • I know John, and I shouldn't keep asking the question. Wishing for lead to be lighter just ain't gonna make it so. Big heavy vehicles will be our forte: trucks, trains, maybe big earth movers/material handlers, perhaps even ships... it would sure be fun to fast forward 10 years to see just what sort of places the PbC will have gotten itself into..
    16 Mar 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • 48
    Oo! oo! I want a ticket to that show.
    16 Mar 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Apologies wrong column
    I need to amend the Original Prius numbers for 2012
    were 147,503
    and total hybrid sales for 2012 were 434,498
    16 Mar 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • "48xxxx, for the first decade the HEV space was all NiMH. The shift to lithium is hyped as an "advance" but the truth is that the shift was forced by resource constraints."


    So what you are saying is that along with being smaller and lighter, lithium is also cheaper than NiMH. Yeah, that's a real "plan B". Amazing spin on that one, even for you.
    17 Mar 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3,
    You seem to forget that NiMH is also "safer" than Li-ion, and in many of their uses it lasts longer. Those are not minor issues to ignore.
    17 Mar 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • Smaller and lighter are interesting, but less robust and less safe are deal killers for automakers. If NiMH was not resource constrained lithium-ion wouldn't stand a ghost of a chance.
    17 Mar 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Lab,
    Please point me to any credible proven source that shows a lithium battery in a hybrid or EV that has safety problems. NiMH can last a long time, and it can also fail prematurely, it all depends on the implementation. The same is true of lithium. Lithium is a better product that continues to improve while NiMH has not.
    18 Mar 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Smaller and lighter are pretty important when trying to improve vehicle efficiency, which is the whole point of hybridization.
    18 Mar 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • 03/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19700, Vol 210470, AvTrSz: 5397
    Min. Pr: 0.2810, Max Pr: 0.3039, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2907
    # Buys, Shares: 8 26240, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2952
    # Sells, Shares: 31 184230, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2901
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:7.02 (12.5% “buys”), DlyShts 0 (0.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%


    Interesting that on a high-volume day with “heavy” selling, there were exactly 0 daily short sales. I suspect this supports one of my stated possibilities regarding MMs (playing short-term long positions, doing covering buys at low prices after short sales at higher prices, being wholly-owned by brokers there are more (mostly?) intra-broker trades, now-available computerized facilities effectively place the broker-held shares under control of brokers' wholly-owned MMs, or a combination of these).


    Yesterday I mentioned “... I've got a descending – at 0.88%/day – support we are apparently riding lower. We've bottomed on this line 3 of the last six days. Tomorrow's potential support would be ~$0.285 if that line holds”. Monday's support by that line should be ~$0.2825.


    Although I generally try to keep my TFH stuff at bay here ...


    TFH & DOWNDRAFT STUFF OMITTED FROM HERE! For the gory details, go to


    On to conventional TA ...


    Our $0.288 potential support is still intact the last two days as Thursday's low and close were both right there and today's (Friday's) close was above it, even if we discount the last two (manipulative?) trades. Further, even discounting those trades we would've had a higher close on rising volume - $0.29 vs. $0.288. This is considered a bullish sign in traditional TA. If we do get a reversal off this a simple reversion to the mean would suggest ~$0.315 would be a seen.


    Even if I don't discount that $0.281 5K trade (discussed in the part not posted in the concentrator), our descending support (down 0.88%/day) should be considered intact until confirmation is seen that it is NOT in play. Since “overshoots” of any trend line are quite common, confirmation of a break is needed.


    Speaking of trend lines, I had recently identified another potential rising support to replace the recently failed one. It experienced an “overshoot” yesterday (Thursday) with a close below that line. But today we closed above it and, AFAICT, would have closed right on it at $0.29 if the last two (manipulative?) trades were discounted. After the earlier total of 33K shares traded at 13:06, price moved smartly back up to trade 35.4K (~17% of day's volume) in the $0.29-$0.30 range. So either way, we don't have confirmation this potential new rising trend line is “broken” yet. But if buyers don't step up to counteract the sellers, it will be broken quickly and we'll be looking at the $0.275-$0.27 range as next potential support.


    Including those last two trades gives a close above that rising potential support.


    Price has moved back into a range which will now let the 50-day SMA, $$0.3218, decline. If we don't get some appreciation to ~0.33 in the next couple of days, the 50-day will begin to accelerate downward. Fortunately, we still have a large gap, relatively, to the falling 200-day at $0.3099 so there's no immediate danger of a “Death Cross” IF PRICE CAN AT LEAST HOLD IN THIS RANGE! And this would be a “real” one with both SMAs declining and the 50-day falling more rapidly than the 200-day. Even then, we've got a tough row to how as the “tail” of the 50-day will be quickly moving to include some closes up in the $0.37 area for a couple of days before lower closes start coming into play again – about eight additional days for the tail to get back into the $0.32-$0.33 area.


    Most of the oscillators I track have shown a small improvement today, but all are still well south of neutral. No bullish indications of any strength manifest yet.


    On my experimental charts stuff, average trade size has recovered now to be right in the middle of what I think is “retail”. We need to see it hold here or better to read anything into it though. I'm also concerned that this may be just an effect of the zero short sales – if MMs are in a long position with lower-cost shares they needn't work as hard to fill buy orders. Combined with the again falling “buy” percentage, I don't read this as bullish.


    I had mentioned yesterday that our low had intersected the calculated trend line and generally rode that line sideways around six days and then started a rise. On;y if I discount the suspected two manipulative trades at EOD can I say price is still riding that line, which looks to be about $0.285 today, matching the descending trend line in mentioned up in the traditional TA area.


    A potential positive is that volume the last three days has been right around and above (especially today) the 10 and 25-day volume averages. The trend over the last four days is up. Unfortunately it is in conjunction with a price trend down – not a good sign.


    My original experimental inflection point calculations lost it's “merest” hint of an upturn and is still suggesting weakness. Ditto for the newer version. However when I examine the actual numbers there is a divergence that may prove significant in the future: the newer version suggests a near-term reduction of the rate of weakening while the original suggest the opposite. Since the newer version considers factors not in the original, this makes sense. It also happens to match the behavior seen in the discussion of the rate of price change discussed when considering the “downdraft” above.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    16 Mar 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • So far no indication GM is going to go simple SS in the US. My guess is because the AGM battery is not robust enough. I think GM has got enough damage control to do without adding to the problem with SS systems that have no payback because of the poor cycle life the LAB.


    But their more complex system of launch assist is not being received well on their smaller vehicles. So where do they go?


    Cars primed to save fuel

    17 Mar 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • ii,
    I'm not sure why GM has been so adamant that e-assit is the way to go. Light micro-hybrids have not been there forte yet. I hope they are encouraged by the PbC performance they have been testing.
    17 Mar 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Heck, that Impala's actually a pretty nice looking car. I'll be.
    17 Mar 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • I thought so as well. I'm not well read on the topic but it sounds like it's not been getting good reviews.

    17 Mar 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist, GM has been somewhat successful in getting people to move from V6 engines on Buick's to 4 cylinder engines with e-assist. I think gas prices have helped significantly in this transition if people are just comparing these 2 options. I don't think GM is the leader in the category for gas consumption.


    In the more cost effective transport categories the system is not selling so well. It's harder to sell as a 4 cylinder vs 4 cylinder w/ e-assist decision. In other words the payback, if there is one, is too long.


    Why is GM going in this direction? Don't have any idea. I suspect we'd know more if we looked at patent portfolios. Maybe GM is locked out due to their time spent focusing on other things like bankruptcy? I do however suspect they are not a proponent of simple SS in the US given the storage system. They are playing the game in Europe because the cards are stacked that way but not so in the US. And I also think Ford has it as an option only for that reason. Market it as available to gain a few eyes but don't commit. Heck if it was as great as they say it is and there was under 3 years payback with no customer dissatisfaction, don't you think they'd go all in?


    Let's hope GM has a wild card with PbC.
    17 Mar 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • I think they just don't gain enough yards with simple SS---depending on the size of the vehicle, the mpg gains just aren't there to be worth the cost and trouble, especially if all you've got to work with that makes any sense at all RE price is problematic AGM. It's not worth the headache. So you go for the bigger play. Higher risk, more investment, better payback...
    17 Mar 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • The European drive cycle has much more of the cycle as "stops" than the US version - the US version, in turn, has much more deceleration than the European version - hence why SS is getting big in Europe, and why the US will favor systems that can handle regen braking pulses - hence need for high DCA is much greater in the US than in Europe.
    17 Mar 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone!!
    I recommend you read this article:


    Has The Electric Vehicle Investment Craze Run Off Course?



    Have a good next week-Carlos
    17 Mar 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • NEW CASTLE, Penn., March 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power" International, Inc . (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced plans to release its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2012, before the market opens in New York on Monday, March 25, 2013. Axion's management team will host a conference call to discuss the Company's financial results on the same day, at 11:00 am ET.

    18 Mar 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Only a week to wait instead of two! Hopefully good news.


    Does this mean we will actually have access to the report after trading on Friday or will we have to wait until Monday morning?
    18 Mar 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Release before market open one full week ahead of SEC's reporting deadline. Conference call at 11:00a.m. ET.


    Think that timing was picked just to avoid April Fool's day disclosure?
    18 Mar 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Before market opening on Monday and moved forward a week. From all I've read on the APCs re. timing of these things I would not expect to be hearing bad news - just contrary to that.
    18 Mar 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • I'll be looking for the 10K filing on Friday afternoon.
    18 Mar 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Don't Friday afternoons typically portend a bad report?


    My hopes are now tarnished of TG offering up something wildly positive.


    Hoping my hopes aren't dashed.


    I'll be curious to see if same quarter YoY is up after backing out the (very latent) 4th Q NSC purchase.


    I'm also hoping that the cap raise has been completed and we don't have to suffer through another "ongoing concern" phrase.




    I'll be happy to fire up a 2012 EOY report Insta for questions to be posed to TG, if folks would like me to.
    18 Mar 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, last years earnings was a Friday after close release with a Monday CC on 4-2. No different this time except a week early and I think it is positive but that is JMHO.
    18 Mar 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Maya
    "Don't Friday afternoons typically portend a bad report?"
    If the call was Friday I might worry.
    They are giving people the info with the weekend to study it. On Monday before the market opens, callers can ask good questions.
    No this doesn't scare me at all.


    I'll be happy to fire up a 2012 EOY report Insta for questions to be posed to TG, if folks would like me to.
    Sounds good to me.
    18 Mar 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Throw a "like" my way. If I get 10 or so, I will fire up the call-in question Insta later tonight or tomorrow.




    KentG: Thanks for the reminder. Makes me feel a tad better :-)
    18 Mar 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • IMPORTANT CORRECTION: According to the release from Axion I received in my email box today, Axion is releasing earnings BEFORE the market opens on Monday, the 25th:


    Axion Power Announces Date For The Release Of Fourth Quarter And Year End 2012 Results, Conference Call And Webcast


    NEW CASTLE, Penn., March 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power™ International, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced plans to release its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2012, before the market opens in New York on Monday, March 25, 2013. Axion's management team will host a conference call to discuss the Company's financial results on the same day, at 11:00 am ET.




    Please disregard all comments about this Friday's release of the 2012 earnings report.
    18 Mar 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,


    I do hope you put up an insta to help us focus our questions. I'd think now more then ever we need some transparency from management. However, I'm reading from your tone that you may have lost some of your positivity.


    Maybe we will be surprised to the upside for once. EPower, Rosewater, NS, etc.. somebody could be making headway - I'm hoping.
    18 Mar 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, same as last year. Friday afternoon should bring the SEC filing. Last year it is dated 3-30-12 and the CC was a Monday (4-2).
    18 Mar 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks KentG for recalling that.
    19 Mar 2013, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • Bart Chilton, CFTC chief, on CNBC on "Wash Sales" - trading with one's self - being illegal and will be taking a look at MMs & related to assure no perverse incentives to do wash trading.


    ATDF anyone?


    When the video gets up later I link it in. Hmm ... <TFH fine-tuning in progress> I wonder if daily short sales will start to rise unexpectedly?


    EDIT: Other topics too - upping penalties, actually put people in jail ... OMG! More tap-dancing or is it real?
    18 Mar 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • "....More tap-dancing..."


    "And now, You know the rest of the story."


    When you create rules and regulations and you don't enforce them they have no value other than to use as weapons for your own self interests.
    18 Mar 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Here's the CNBC link re "wash sales".



    18 Mar 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Dat's automotive. Some clues.


    Metair targets Africa, seeks stable labour environment in 2013

    18 Mar 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • More on Metair. Note more aftermarket and working toward OE diversity. Never become a voluntary slave. T.G. T.G. had escape routes from Exide.


    Metair benefits from strong vehicle sales growth

    18 Mar 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Ultrabattery.....We workin' on it, dat' Lightnin' fast DCA.


    Commercialising battery with super storage


    "At present the charging time is the same as for normal lead-acid batteries and depends on the capacity. However, the CSIRO is developing fast charging to improve the charge rate not only for the UltraBattery but also for other battery technologies as well. In normal use it is expected to have four to eight times the life of a lead-acid device."

    18 Mar 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: I'm glad to see they haven't abandoned the old standard stuff: "... eventually, a reduced charging rate". :-))


    18 Mar 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • This is the first news story I've seen where CSIRO has admitted that the Ultrabattery doesn't have a rapid charging rate. It certainly goes a long way toward clarifying the relative competitiveness in the PbCs target markets.
    18 Mar 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • John, Yeah. My eyes widened along with my grin when I saw it.
    18 Mar 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,


    "At present the charging time is the same as for normal lead-acid batteries and depends on the capacity. However, the CSIRO is developing fast charging to improve the charge rate not only for the UltraBattery but also for other battery technologies as well"


    In other words, they're stuck where they are now, unless they can figure some way around Axion's patents.
    18 Mar 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, I'm sure Dr. Buiel could respond to your comment better than I. I do find it interesting that the Ultrabattery has a capacitive component in their hybrid battery but they claim no advantage in charge acceptance. Well, that's down right interesting and I'd love to understand why.


    I do recall comments about the capacitive component of the Ultrabattery not coming into play until later in the discharge cycle and it could be this happens too late in the operating range of the device. Don't quote me here. Just trying to entice someone to educate us on this characteristic.
    18 Mar 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... To answer your quandary ... here is Ed Buiel to answer:


    "The reason for this is pretty simple, lead has a great discharge capability owing to the fact it oxidizes like a champ (gives up electrons very easily). So, although you can charge the carbon, you have to pretty much discharge the lead part of the negative down to nothing in order to get the energy you put in the carbon out. Basically the carbon is dead. "



    I would guess that improvements could be made if CSIRO just wrapped carbon around the Pb portion of the electrode, but I don't know if that would infringe upon Axion or even be worth the expense of wasting Pb.


    As time goes by and this DCA problem percolates up in the conscience mind of OEMs, I'm perplexed that Axion's PbC doesn't garner any notice or attention. I guess everyone is waiting for someone to say "IT WORKS" in the same manner supercapactors are now popular because Continental AG stepped up. There is also the problem that Axion's PbC might just work and work better than all other solutions for the price yet it has no direct competitors. We all know the auto industry shuns sole source anything (not so big a problem in trucking & rails) but ... isn't that how things change ... one at a time. Well, my confusion lives on while I wait for Customer No. 1 (with ePower Engine Systems sooooooo close)
    18 Mar 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Ahhhh DRich, I thought I'd seen something on it but I couldn't remember if it was a post from Dr. Buiel or Kirk T. You're a scholar and a gentleman!


    Agree with your added thoughts. One thing the autos can do to allow Axion to supply is to manage their "One Source" concerns with contracts. They'd prefer to have multiple options but there are contractual ways to minimize the risk here. Obviously there are times this happens and they have dealt with it.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, The Ultrabattery is good technology if it does what they claim. But we can better see the distinction between it and PbC. More info. on where each is better suited vs today's technology.
    I'm still scratching my head as to why we have not seen anything on this market. I've posted this before. I'm baffled.


    With anti idling assured starting becomes a far more important task.


    Electrochemical Double Layer Capacitors: Supercapacitors Market 2013-2023 New Study Published By Mar


    "...Conventional trucks are having one to three of their lead acid batteries replaced with drop-in super capacitor alternatives that guarantee starting in very cold weather, when lead acid batteries are very poor performers."

    18 Mar 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Starting an engine in very cold weather is the "EXACT" functional reason the PbC was invented by the Russians. They just weren't very successful except to demonstrate the idea had potential.
    18 Mar 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,


    Scratching one's head indeed! As more time goes by, and more (suitable) opportunities are missed, the more I become convinced that the technology, e.g. the PbC's discharge profile, or company is just not working. Given the markets' recent highs, at this point I think I can be forgiven for thinking that AXPW is just a front to take shareholders' money to pay executive salaries as the company (perhaps 'entity' is a better term?) is slowly driven into the ground. Maybe it's because it's Monday, but surely I can't be only one thinking this.


    Maybe at the cc TG will throw us a bone?




    P.S. Sorry for the negative attitude, but I've been long this stock for way too long. It's no one's fault but my own, <i>caveat emptor</i>, and all that, but geesh, I think even Job would be pounding the table for results?


    Alright, I'm done with my rant.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, And that's why I can't understand why we have heard nothing here. The Russian tech. which is Ni based was also licensed by Saft. Perhaps that's and answer. Maybe they are servicing this market well and Axion will not be a competitive threat until they can lower their cost structure.


    That being said, other companies can run an analysis on what the cost of Axion's tech. will be when scaled. So why no partnering yet?
    18 Mar 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Finding partners that will suck you dry and spit out the empty husk is easy. I should know, I married two of them. Finding fair partners who contribute as much as they demand is far more challenging. When I consider what Axion has to offer, and what it has to lose from a hasty decision, I don't mind waiting anywhere near as much.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • I thought I was the only hollow husk twice spitten.
    18 Mar 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • I understand your point John. Just can't imagine why the tech. seems so compelling to me that Axion can't find someone that has capital and vision and wants in for a reasonable slice of the action. A chance to separate yourself from the pack with another product category in a sector that you know is assured to have pretty darn good growth.


    Sorry to hear of your former trials. I guess that can happen when you turn yourself into big game. You have to dodge more lead! ;)
    18 Mar 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • MitchS, Well I can surely understand your frustration. We'll see what Axion has to say this time around. Sure might be a little more exciting now if NS didn't move like a whale without a tail (Yes I know DRich!). I know automotive so in the case of that sector opportunity, I'm not surprised at all. Oh and Rosewater caught me off guard a little as well. All offset a little on the positive side with ePower Engine Systems.


    BTW, No need to apologize. It's constructive discussion. Can't help with regard to how you feel about tying up your money here. It is however a late stage development company and a micro cap. Announcements come far and few between Nature of the beast. So we each need to examine what we have for data and do what's right for us. Fortunately this group helps with the data mining and the thought process. The investment timing and levels are however still managed individually. Even Job would have to stop his nail biting to make the same types of individual decisions here!
    18 Mar 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco: I have two thoughts on the "why no partner" question. NIH and lead (grey metal).


    LA battery companies have so much invested in conventional lead acid batteries AND THEY didn't think of it.


    Others have been listening to the "lead is a nasty neurotoxin" song since the 1970s and keep hearing about the wonders of Lithium. Lead acid is a dinosaur battery, donchano !


    That's it. IMO, of course.
    19 Mar 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, Thanks. Can't argue the points you make.


    But think about it. If you've got a lot of investment to protect don't you want to move up the food chain and distinguish yourself by offering a product that has higher margins? Something that China and Mexico can't dump on you?


    BTW, So far lithium ion has been pretty toxic to capital for most players. Sure is killing a ton of cash!


    Or do you sit around and wait for them to drive the stake in because it's just not worth risking the capital to continue to supply?

    19 Mar 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • EnerSys to build a factory in China for both Motive Power batteries for the forklift battery market and Reserve Power batteries to serve the telecommunication, energy and uninterruptible power supply industries.

    18 Mar 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like


    P1887 - Wayside Energy Storage System Guide for DC Traction Applications



    Not much to see yet, just interesting to me it's going on.
    18 Mar 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • According to the American Wind Energy Association:
    "The areas of the country that have efficient grid operating practices have shown it is possible to integrate very large quantities of wind very reliably at virtually zero incremental cost. The areas of the country that don’t have efficient grid operating practices, namely, much of the West outside California, are seeing increased costs and challenges.”


    In ERCOT’s calculations for 2011, Goggin said, “the total cost for integrating wind came out at about $0.50 per megawatt-hour.”
    18 Mar 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • “Newer research suggests systems can go to 40 percent renewables with no problem,” Goggin said, “using the very efficient grid operating practices being applied by MISO, ERCOT, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and others."
    Hmm, that's in complete contradiction to what some here have claimed.
    19 Mar 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • "Hmm, that's in complete contradiction to what some here have claimed. "


    And we have federal government, and some State government, bodies asserting that SuperStorm Sandy was unprecedented when it was not, we have those same government bodies alleging global warming due to CO2 emissions when there has been no statistically significant warming in more than 16 years according to the data series relied upon by the UN's IPCC climate reports.
    19 Mar 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv. You seem like a smart person and you know a lot of really great stuff, but you are seriously misinformed on the topic of climate change. 2005 and 2010 are tied for the hottest years on record globally. Even if you want to argue away warming of the land and atmosphere, which tends to have greater variability, the oceans continue to steadily accumulate heat at an accelerating rate. There is no shortage of data to support this. (back to lurking).
    20 Mar 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Not sure what completely unrelated data from completely different areas of study have to do with each other. Actually I am sure, nothing at all.
    20 Mar 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • "... Not sure what completely unrelated data from completely different areas of study have to do with each other."


    I am quite sure that advocacy against use of fossil fuels is common to both areas, and thus, methodologically biased in a common direction.
    21 Mar 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • I'll respond, though it is OT for the Concentrator, since we'll likely have a new one tomorrow. Increases in global ocean heat content in the combined "global" reading, which is cobbled together from individual ocean data, is readily explainable by natural phenomena (El Nino and La Nina) and does not show changes attributable to manmade CO2.


    As far as the cost of, and extent to which wind and solar (let's not use the term "renewable" as it injects politics into the argument and is generally manipulated to reflect only the CO2 generated at the time electricity is produced) are integrated into the power grid should depend solely on the cost of that generation to the utility and the calculated costs and benefits to its customers. If it works in CA, fine. I'm a firm believer in the notion that states are valuable laboratories for new policies.


    Let's please just not kid ourselves that the threat of a CO2-scorched planet is so pressing that we can't give our TruGreen friends a chance to skip rope (or hang themselves with) with their chain of evidence before the experiment plays out.
    21 Mar 2013, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • For the visually inclined ...


    Martin LaMonica March 8, 2013


    Seven Next-Generation Energy Technologies Showcased by ARPA-E


    Companies showed off their latest clean energy innovations at the ARPA-E Summit.

    18 Mar 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Additional articles on the bottom of the page that may be of interest.


    Utility-scale battery storage to top 25 GW in Asia Pacific in 2022


    "With sodium sulfur batteries the most common option at the moment, the diverse nature of investment in energy storage technologies in the region will also see the adoption of advanced lith-ion, flow, lead acid and sodium metal halide batteries, say the report’s authors.


    The Energy Storage in Asia Pacific report predicts 6.4 GW of energy storage will be added in the region in 2022, to reach the cumulative 25.1 GW figure with China driving investment in utility scale battery storage, although for bulk storage, pumped hydro will still be a major factor."

    18 Mar 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Okay, it's only a matter of time till one of us buys one of these, right?


    Daily Report: Domestic Drones on Patrol

    18 Mar 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: More likely one of us "buys the farm" due to a mistake from them.


    18 Mar 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • All,


    Now that AXPW is releasing its end of year results a week ahead of schedule, there is speculation that a financing is 'secured', or at least not something to worry about..


    Why don't they release it to the press now so as to alleviate concerns about the going concern of the company? Doing so would certainly contribute to a boost in the equity price as probably more prospective investors would be willing to jump in at this point.


    Any remarks/input is of course welcome :)
    18 Mar 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • "Now that AXPW is releasing its end of year results a week ahead of schedule, there is speculation that a financing is 'secured', or at least not something to worry about."


    I've probably been about as optimistic as anybody about a good outcome from the capital raise. But being cautious by nature, I don't see where the early release would indicate there's no more need to be concerned. I wish that were the case, but the stock price today seems to be telling me I'm not the only cautious one out there.
    18 Mar 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • bought some more today, thinking .28 will hold. . .
    18 Mar 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane: It's possible. ATM bids @ $0.28 total 46K. But until the last 30 minutes or so, the hitting the bid had been somewhat relentless. Buy:sell at 14:59 is 1:3.07, improved from 1:6.xx earlier.


    Our weakness has been the usual, predominately ATDF, TEJS, with the former being the one most commonly lowering the ask.


    EDIT; At one point, bids @ $0.28 were over 100K. ATDF keeps jumping ahead to $0.2801, etc.
    18 Mar 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • I don't see the date as being a sign of anything. Last year it was on the first monday with the 10-k released on the last possible Friday before they had to. This seems like the same setup to me.


    My thesis on the stock or company has not changed.
    18 Mar 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting comment by Dr. Imre Gyuk:


    For the smaller storage systems, that can also be combined with PV plants, the Department of Energy has turned to lead-carbon technology. This technology, according to Gyuk, has the potential to have a 5- to 10- times higher lifetime compared to lead-acid batteries.

    18 Mar 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Any thoughts on this lead-carbon reference? Most likely he means the Ultrabattery but also the PbC?
    18 Mar 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • From slide presentation last year:


    "Smaller ARRA projects include the 500-kilowatt lead-carbon battery technology project for Public Service in New Mexico and the 3-megawatt project for PJM. Gyuk said that the EastPenn lead carbon batteries used in these projects look like lead acid batteries, but one electrode contains carbon. Gyuk called them a cross between ultracapacitors and lead acid batteries with ten times the cycle life of other batteries."



    In 2008, he mentioned Axion in a proposed project in NY:


    <<NYSERDA / DOE Project
    CUNY La Guardia Campus,
    100kW PV + 150kW / 2hr Storage
    Axion Lead / Carbon Battery
    Intended to provide 250kW Peaking
    as Part of NYCity 8 MW Solar Target
    Kickoff Oct. 2, 2008>>


    Did that ever happen?
    18 Mar 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane, It's one of the unfortunate gray areas that Axion's chemistry gets sucked into in the press. I wish there was a better way that they would categorize Axion's offering and for that matter the Ultrabattery as well. Seems "lead with carbon added to the NAM", Ultrabattery and PbC all get stuffed into the "lead carbon" or "advanced lead acid battery" segment. It stinks to be the little less known entity when this happens. Especially when there is so much difference between the various offerings in some of their properties.
    18 Mar 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco, well said
    18 Mar 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • ISTM it's not just ultrabattery and PbC that get convoluted together, but also carbon-paste enhanced AGM's probably get confused into the mix as well... which maybe the big battery manufacturers kinda like.
    18 Mar 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturn,
    The 2008 grid project in NY had me very exited. Then the lead contractor of the project went broke and the project went away. It was an exiting moment for Axion Shareholders that turned into another episode of paint drying. All of us wish it had turned out differently.


    But think about it. Axion was making carbon electrodes in a food proccessor back then. A grid project? Would have been an interesting manufacturing study had they had the chance to accomplish it.
    18 Mar 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • For those interested in ZBB, they are presenting at the Power Gen conference in India. Slide 20. FWIW, it appears ZBB is starting to become more engaged in India as last year ZBB was only attending conferences and now they are presenting.

    18 Mar 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • ZBB presented at Roth conference today:



    Interesting tidbits. Seems their presentations are becoming more focused.


    Slide 7: Breakeven at $28 million annual run rate (or $4M per quarter. ZBB was at 2.75M last qtr).
    Slide 29: Targeting breakeven earnings by Q4 FY13
    Slide 28: Sales funnel at over $42M. (I hope to see this escalate exponentially over the next two years as they will only be able to close some percentage of it.)
    18 Mar 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Yup,


    I hope Axion has a similar profile by next year. Right now it seems ZBB is the better value and the most likely to get to 50 cents and an eventual 50M+ market cap.
    18 Mar 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Actually ZBB is presenting on Wednesday.


    This is a huge conference in the number of companies presenting. ZBB is one of the relatively few companies that for some reason is not webcasting their presentation. Would love to know why that is.

    19 Mar 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Right you are WT. Didn't notice that the presentation wasn't until tomorrow.


    ZBB article in the Jan/Feb issue of Distributed Energy magazine.

    19 Mar 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Any new word from the proud drivers of the 1st ePower truck? How about a progress update on the 2nd (to give a feel for the Turn-Around Time)?
    Seems that it should be a good time to inquire if the tweaks done had improved performance. If the 35% (or better) fuel reduction was being reached.
    18 Mar 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • The CT microgrid program is starting to get a little bit more attention and could be a model for other states in putting together similar programs. My belief is that any future smart grid will be built one microgrid at a time and ultimately linked together.

    18 Mar 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Here is the link to the Axion Power 2012 EOY Conference Call discussions and questions Instablog. All are welcome to make comment:

    18 Mar 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • 03/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 54, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 13830, Vol 204330, AvTrSz: 3784
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2999, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2833
    # Buys, Shares: 20 51900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2866
    # Sells, Shares: 34 152430, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2821
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.94 (25.4% “buys”), DlyShts 10830 (05.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.10%


    I summarize today as still nothing (much) positive showing anywhere. Several things deteriorated a bit from Friday's state. The pretty-much constant hitting the bid is about to get on my last nerve. We've had only one positive buy:sell in 10 trading days - since 3/4. If you look at my charts, especially the buy:sell and its averages, your nerves might match mine. So I recommend avoiding looking at them for now.


    Our “big uglies” apparently have been replaced by a bunch of “mini-uglies”. This is suggested by the fact that fails-to-deliver for the second part of February (updated my charts today – will post later) only had one fail day, 2/27 (trade date was 2/22) with 991 shares, and it was cleared the next day. Daily short sales were very low, price was weakening and buy:sell was trending lower during this time.


    I wonder what Special Situations and some of the other “usual suspects” have been doing recently.


    I'm tired ... of this. The sellers have been pretty relentless in hitting the bid. The result, as we could expect, is my latest potential trend support line, ~$0.2901, is now confirmed as broken with a close below it. Next potential supports are price-point lows of $0.275-$0.27. These were just lows in areas of sideways trading, so I don't know how much strength they'll show. My near-term descending trend, falling at ~0.88%/day, that was supporting the lows is also busted, apparently. Today it was ~$0.2825, IIRC, and the lows penetrated that line a second consecutive day. We are “pushing” my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger limit, $0.2794, for the second day and, IIRC, we tend to push it around six days normally.


    All but two of the oscillators I watch weakened again. The exceptions were, strangely to me, momentum, which improved from ~0.882 to ~0.904 - still below neutral - and stochastic which stayed flat, barely above oversold. MFI is well into oversold at ~13. If price doesn't start to recover tomorrow, the 50-day SMA will start to weaken more quickly, as will the 200-day. It won't accelerate as quickly as the 50-day though.


    Offsetting, maybe, some of that negative reading is the fact that I saw good support at $0.28 today in both trades and bids. There were times bids at $0.28 totaled over 100K and dropped to lower volumes only as MMs (usually ATDF of course) moved their bid up to get to the head of the line. This action hid the lower bid(s) from ATDF on Level II at $0.28 and they would re-appear when the higher bid disappeared. The lowest ask seen was $0.285, in small volume. Most trades below that were folks just hitting the bids.


    On my experimental stuff, average trade size is again at the low end of what I think is retail, the buy:sell showed small improvement but is still very weak and well below its longer-term readings. I had mentioned a couple days back that the intra-day price low had contacted the calculated trend and last time this happened it had ridden it sideways for six days and started an up leg. Well, that's broken now too. Volume is flat and still low.


    My original experimental inflection points have reverted to continuing to suggest weakness for now. Looking at the numbers, which had been suggesting a deceleration, I can't discern if that's changed because the various periods are mixed in what they are now doing. My newer version is the same – suggesting continuing weakness and I can''t tell if it's suggesting a change in rate now or not.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    18 Mar 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Solar panel maker Suntech defaults on $541M payment



    "BEIJING Suntech, one of the world's biggest solar panel manufacturers, said Monday it has defaulted on a $541 million bond payment in the latest sign of the financial squeeze on the struggling global solar industry.


    Suntech Power Holdings' announcement was a severe setback for a company lauded by China's Communist government as a leader of efforts to make the country a center of the renewable energy industry...."


    All is not well in Chinese solar power companies.
    18 Mar 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • More to worry is that the central government of China is canceling PV farm subsidies due to "frauds".
    20 Mar 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe found the following link from the freightliner site:



    To me, this looks like great news for ePower and Axion because it will go a long way towards legitimizing the category.


    It might be a little confusing at first, but the hybrid is the M2 model that can be built in three different medium-duty configurations. The one that is most apples to apples with ePower is the tractor configuration that can tow a 55,000lb load (vs. 80,000 lbs for ePower). At the bottom of the page is a link to a brochure that has additional information.


    It lists the engine as running from 200hp to 325hp (vs. 200hp for ePower). The 60hp lithium battery assist appears to be much lower than the ePower PbC configuration (I don’t recall ePower providing specific hp enhancement info). Finally, the Freightliner tractor configuration is estimated to provide 20-30% fuel savings vs. the 35%-50% savings in the larger vehicle segment ePower currently supports. My guess is that the Freightliner fuel savings estimate includes a lot of local driving and not overnight trips (M2 is listed under day cabs on the site) which typically enables more fuel savings than long highway trips. This means that the fuel savings gap of ePower vs. Freightliner would be even greater in an apples-to-apples trip type comparison.


    It would seem that the ePower solution is a much more effective form of hybridization in a more demanding application. I didn’t see any pricing information on the Freightliner site so I couldn’t complete a total economic value comparison.
    18 Mar 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • I have a question about the Freightliner.


    On the side pix where they identify parts they have a hybrid cooler.
    This would be for?


    They also have an LH fuel tank and a DEF tank. The last I assume is diesel.
    The first alternative fuels?
    That there are such options is mentioned in the brochure.

    18 Mar 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • AP -


    Interesting. It appears to be similar to the Crosspoint Cummins set up that uses supercapacitors and the ZBB controller. Only this version uses a lithium ion battery (and a cummins engine).

    18 Mar 2013, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Al ... The recent Axion PR regarding ePower 5 year commitment to PbC mentioned 56 PbC batteries IIRC. If PbC 30HT batteries are used they could store a total of 28 kW. At a conversion factor of 1.34 hp per kW, 28 kW translates to 37.5 hp.
    18 Mar 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv... I think you want to double check that. As you know, "storing" KW doesn't really make sense. The 56 battery bank stores something like 28 KWh... but can output a lot more power than 28 KW... recall Dr B said the PbC could discharge 100A quite comfortably... Thus:


    Say two parallel strings of 28 batteries each... I don't think we know if they're 12V or 16V, but let's go with 12V. So, 28x12V = 336V and if each string can deliver 100A then that's 200A total.
    So: 336V x 200A = 67.2KW or 90 Hp.


    And again, that is for a pretty gentle 100A discharge per battery--it's likely the battery is capable of more burst output than that...
    18 Mar 2013, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481' ... Thanks for catching the faux paux and technical input.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • DEF is diesel exhaust fluid, a solution of urea injected into the exhaust that converts NO2 to H20 and N2.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • My understanding of the ePower system is that they're running the entire battery array in series so that it puts out 672 volts.
    19 Mar 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • brian
    19 Mar 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • any insight from the pro's for a novice?...announcing before the market on a Friday. There must be a strategy there. If there is no favorable development to report, market responds with some selling, price drops into the weekend, further drops the next week as there is no further news to counter the Friday report. That can't be what they expect or why they would announce before opening on a Friday.
    If there is positive news, Friday is an active trading day, price rises on news, greater circulation of report in the financial media over the weekend and the next week is a strong week for stockholders.
    Could this have something to do with the upcoming financing round? Favorable news-stronger pricing- stronger financing round? How does rising price relate to cost of capital? presumably, the higher the market price, the better price a private placement of X-million shares would bring, right?
    Perhaps now is the time to add a partial position...
    19 Mar 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan,
    See KentG's comment above.
    19 Mar 2013, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • NK MD ... The PR announcement stated results would be released before market opens on Monday, not on Friday. JP discovered last year that the 10K had been filed with SEC late on Friday which was the last business day before the SEC's reporting deadline. That may or may not happen again this year. Release of Q4 and annual financial results is scheduled a week earlier than last year and the company could file with SEC on Monday or later in the week and remain in compliance with reporting requirements.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • As a general rule Axion tends to make its SEC filings after the market closes on the business day before the earnings call. It's certainly the easiest way for the lawyers and accountants to get their jobs done and it gives shareholders a chance to study the reports prior to the conference call. There's no way to know for sure whether the pattern will hold this time around, but I'll be checking the SECs website late Friday.
    19 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • I introduced a number of friends to AXPW in the last several months


    Most are AXPW watchers waiting for resolution of the financing


    Someone suggested to one of my watchers that AXPW will not take off unless they figure
    out a way of disposing of the batteries


    First time I have heard of this being a potential problem


    Would appreciate any comments to set the record straight
    19 Mar 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • There are no disposal issues with the PbC because it can be run through any lead-acid battery recycling facility.


    You chop them up and toss them in a water bath. The metals sink while the plastic and carbon float. When you melt the metal fraction, the small amounts of copper float on the lead and can be skimmed off for further processing.


    I'm not entirely clear on whether the carbon fraction sinks or floats, but if it ends up in the metal fraction it will burn off during smelting and if it ends up in the plastic fraction it will be a simple rinse.
    19 Mar 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power mentioned as a major player among others in a renewable energy storage article. Mentioned near bottom of article.

    19 Mar 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John


    A fountain of knowledge as always
    19 Mar 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Maxwell Technologies Showcases Engine Start Module at Mid-America Trucking Show



    "For trucking professionals who work in freezing weather, run hotel loads on batteries, or sit in line at weigh stations with anti-idle laws, the limitations of batteries for cranking power are all-too familiar," said Dennis Flynn, director of market research and brand communications at Maxwell Technologies.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • "sit in line at weigh stations with anti-idle laws, the limitations of batteries for cranking power are all-too familiar,"


    Had not thought of that dynamic. Makes one wonder how long it will be before we are advised of growing PbC sales to trucking OEMs and fleet operators for engine starting purposes.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • I am becoming more wary of Maxwell since they mis-stated some of their financials...
    19 Mar 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • I was kicking myself when I got out of MXWL at $8.60 and then it ran up over $10. Now, it seems that wasn't such a bad place to exit.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • I bet today you are even happier that you sold...


    Maxwell down more than 11% as I write this.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • NGS, Darn..........Oh, Yippee! That and the inverse. That's the stock market.
    20 Mar 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Found this note in the BMW Annual Report that John had previously posted the link for:



    BMW Group and Toyota Motor Corporation sign
    cooperation agreement
    The BMW Group and the Toyota Motor Corporation
    (TMC) continue to work together in the field of sustainable
    mobility. The two entities signed a contract at the
    end of January 2013 with respect to cooperation in
    the fields of fuel cells, lightweight-construction technologies
    and the development of sports cars.
    The BMW Group and TMC also signed an agreement on
    the joint research of lithium-air batteries, a post-lithium
    battery technology. With the signing of this agreement,
    the joint research on the next generation of lithium-ion batteries initiated in March 2012 has now entered the
    second phase.
    19 Mar 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • So I wonder if BMW is as pro PbC as we think ?
    19 Mar 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • BMW spent three years and a couple million dollars of its own money testing the PbC in house. It then spent another big fistful of cash to pay for third party confirmation of its in-house testing results. The next step will involve fleet testing and cost BMW several million more dollars.


    Since automakers throw nickels around like manhole covers, the fact that BMW is continuing to spend increasing amounts of money on PbC testing speaks volumes.


    A "yes" answer comes slowly in automotive because the automakers can't afford to make a mistake when they integrate a critical component like a new class of battery in a model line.


    A "no" answer, in comparison, always comes quickly because automakers don't spend immense amounts of money testing batteries that don't suit their needs.
    19 Mar 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT,
    I don't think any of this research implies anything for the use of Axion's PbC. They are agreeing to work on joint ventures for fuel cells, lithium-air batteries and a post-lithium battery technology. None of those are going to compete with Axion's PbC for a start-stop function and none of those are gong to be used in an relevant scale of auto production for the next 5-10 years. IMHO


    Heck, even the "next generation of lithium-ion batteries" they talk about is only in its second phase of development.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • I would have to imagine that BMW has quite a multi-lane roadmap with many parallel initiatives all constantly in work at different stages... if we could get a look at that sucker, it probably has entries penciled in going out to 2030... various flavors of electrification and hybridization, advanced lightweight materials, CF, alternate fuels, diesel, NG, FC, different batteries, generation engines, self-driving schemes, and on and on...there are probably at least 20 different major technology tracks that they're constantly working on and revising. Everybody's trying to skate to where the puck is going to be...but they all have to keep skating. We don't know if their major Go/no-go decision for PbC is already behind us or still coming up. But the PbC has to have been on their big board for quite a while now. The longer it stays there ISTM the harder it is to remove...
    19 Mar 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • LT, unfortunately that thought rattles around my head all the time.
    19 Mar 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • It doesn't bother me in the least. I expect that in the future all cars will be equiped with start/stop many will have regen braking and some will have more. PbC isn't the best choice for heavy hybrid but will be a great choice for the S/S (or the mild hybrid market). We've seen basically limited growth over the past several years for hybrids in the market as the cost is hard to justify. However, considerable fuel savings for several hundred dollars is worth it and I expect that someone will get first mover status and then everyone will follow through.


    For me the easier thinking is that if BMW/Toyota are sharing Lithium battery info then it makes sense to me that they are sharing other battery tech as well. That excites me.
    19 Mar 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • The strategy for Axion management therefore is to diversify their potential customer base - which is what they are doing- just in case BMW says "no" at the latest stages of the testing programme...
    19 Mar 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • I continue to believe it's likely BMW will go forward with the PbC, even if only minimally to start out with. But I'm also braced for the possibility this may not happen. If not, I believe Axion can still do extraordinarily well with its other PbC applications.
    19 Mar 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • The size of the coming financing will give us a hint as to what to expect for the immediate to short term. If they can confidently say that there is demand out there for the PbC, then I would expect the amount raised to be quite significant in comparison to the last one
    19 Mar 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Axion's authorized capital stock is limited to 200 million shares. With 114 million outstanding and another 10 to 15 million reserved for warrants and options, there's only 70 million shares of elbow room without a stockholder vote. Unless there's a big order that requires immediate capital expansion, I'd expect management to be parsimonious with stock issuances and give the price a chance to rise before putting out too many shares.
    19 Mar 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • 70 million shares at an average price of 20 cents (this is a randomwill make 14 million USD maximum capital that can be raised. I suspect the figure will be well below 10 million if TG doesn't want to put out too many shares...
    19 Mar 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna, I'm curious why you use .20, seems way low to me. I've been thinking upper ,.20s to .30 or so. -- I think it would be great if they got something similar to ZBB, where they could count on a strategic investor to buy shares at market price as needed over the next couple years or so. (I hope I got that right).
    19 Mar 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne


    I used a 30% haircut on an average 30 cents per share price. It is a very rough estimate, so don't take it for face value :)
    19 Mar 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • A big haircut was justified in 2009 when Axion sold 45 million shares of a stock that only had 3.5 million shares of sell-side volume for the year.


    A haircut was also justified in 2012 when the stock rocketed from $.25 to $.60 in the month before the offering. The final price was 40% up from the low and 40% down from the high.


    With several months of stable trading in the 30% price range and a 200 day average volume of 318,000 shares, I'd view a 30% discount as steep, unless the deal is done as a private placement with significant resale restrictions.,
    19 Mar 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • " is done as a private placement with significant resale restrictions."


    My preferred route.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • What is everyone's opinion of a long term convertible note concept? This has been used extensively of late.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • TB ... If Axion issues a convertible note without a strong, large volume PbC sales contract in hand, I will be an ex-axionista as expeditiously as possible.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we've discussed how many shares Axion can put out at any one time, and we came to the conclusion that Axion couldn't put out the whole 70 million shares at one time, even if they had the financing for it?
    19 Mar 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • parsimonious: had to look that one up! Thanks, John.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Last year was already done at a 10% discount. I can't imagine it would be worse this time with more volume.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • I would much rather have a deeper discount BUT with resale restrictions - which I am sure this time TG will make ironclad- than a smaller haircut where the investor can just dispose of his shares at will regardless of the liquidity of the market...
    19 Mar 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • I look forward to seeing the 10K for '12Q4. It will shed some light on near-term financing needs of Axion. Absent current information in that regard I find it completely pointless to speculate on potential discount associated with any capital raise in part due to lack of any clear notion of the amount of capital that might be raised and when it might be needed.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • I am officially a bottom feeder. I just doubled my share count when the price dipped to .275. Now I am way overweight on this stock. I sure hope the news is positive on Monday.
    19 Mar 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • I admire your gumption, nogoodslacker. My next add point is $.25, and I dearly hope I never see it.
    19 Mar 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Unlike a lot of people here, I am relatively new to the stock, so all my buys have been below 0.29. I look forward to buying more on the way up if things turn out well.
    19 Mar 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • I'm already way overweight on AXPW and am buying 5K per month regardless of price.


    If we had a deal with BMW and AXPW shot up to $2 before I realized it I would still be a buyer. Probably even moreso.


    19 Mar 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Last time we were at .28 at the beginning of January, we were at .37 two weeks later. I suspect that absent any "bad" news on Monday, we could revisit .37 again fairly soon.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Not to kibitz too much on this speculation but Wayne, personally I think the bias next Monday will be negative. Given the going concern statement last quarter that the company will have to curtail operations after March 31st, no news on the financing front will be very bad news. If the financing gets done, and it's by a financial investor, you can bet that the price will go to that level (I think that'd be $.25 - .30).


    The only way the stock price goes up is if there is a strategic investor, or a financial investor on reasonable terms (>$.30) combined with some kind of sales news. I too am guardedly hopeful because the call is taking place a week early, but overall, I'm pessimistic about where the stock price will be next Tuesday. The silver lining for me is that any move up will be far larger than any further downside move.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Going by the last CC we should see a price lift. I think a lot of us are just nervous without any updates, and TG should show some progress as usual on Monday.
    19 Mar 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting section on Stop/Start with gratuitous Axion mention:

    19 Mar 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • >Stefan Moroney ... I see it in the same sentence as EXIDE. Axion is so often mentioned, when at all, in the same breath as EXIDE. Just like being associated with that grid project in which the general contractor went BK, Common knowledge is EXIDE is a poorly functioning company (if not headed to BK reorganization) and I think Axion suffers to some degree for it.
    19 Mar 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Axion was also mentioned first in the (Alphabetical) list of
    "Select companies to watch "


    Axion Power




    Delphi automotive


    Exide technologies


    Johnson controls
    19 Mar 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • It looks like a lot more retail investors were selling stock today in anticipation of the price going lower with the new financing. I'll be happy when this week is over and we hopefully get some real new at the CC.
    19 Mar 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Quiet periods before something is expected to happen are always the worst times for my murky crystal ball. I can't speak for anybody else but I seem to have two movie directors running around between my ears.


    It's either a Disney scenario where everything ends wonderfully,



    or an Irwin Allen scenario where the ship gets capsized a tidal wave.



    Mercifully I've come to understand that my expectations of triumph or tragedy, as the case may be, are rarely accurate and the result is almost always somewhere in between the two.
    19 Mar 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Speaking of movie references:
    Its just another quarterly conference. Same ol, Same ol



    Except this time we are really expecting something different
    19 Mar 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist, I suspect another possible application.

    19 Mar 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • 03/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~ 1 hour).
    # Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 27500, Vol 357598, AvTrSz: 5676
    Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2851, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2780
    # Buys, Shares: 21 95562, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2805
    # Sells, Shares: 42 262036, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2771
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.74 (26.7% “buys”), DlyShts 14793 (04.14%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.65%


    On 3/15, when looking for a potential bottom and noting that we had reverted to the mean on that day, ~$0.2909, I also said “ If we use a Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace instead, we get $0.2588. Lots of folks believe in the Fibonacci series, but I find the 50% mark to be a much more frequent occurrence”. And I have mentioned a couple times that if we didn't hold around that $0.29 area the $0.275-$0.27 looked like the next stop, although I didn't know how strong it would be because that range was just some lows in some sideways trading.


    We're there now. The continued hitting the bid, evidenced by our continued bad buy:sell ratio, combined with today's apparent seller capitulation (as they began wholesale fighting to have the lowest ask) and the higher volume (over twice yesterday's 25-day average of ~169.4K) may offer ... Optimism? Pessimism? I don't know. The volume may suggest the end of trend, but it has no support in this assessment yet.


    I've thought a couple times in the recent past we might have flushed the sellers out and it's not proven to be the case. The factors I mention - volume, asks being lowered and the bad buy:sell - would normally lead me to think we've exhausted the sellers at this price level ... again. But in the current environment, with the quarterly report on the horizon and (apparently) few folks expecting any good news, I'm not now going to guess that exhausted sellers is the case. Nor am I going to guess that many buyers are willing to step up.


    What I am going to guess at is that Fibonacci $0.25xx will be the next stop if we don't see buyers step up. The willingness of the sellers to drop their asks rapidly today suggests that they are in “Get out of Dodge” mode. If buyers don't step up we've got two occurrences of $0.25xx where we might pause, although in standard TA I wouldn't claim these as strong reversal points – they are equivalent to the $0.27xx area we are now in. With the sellers in total control it's looking like we might accomplish (if you want to call it that) a 100% re-trace from low to high to low - $0.2018 - again.


    If we observe volume declining and the sellers stop hitting the bid and don't rapidly lower the asks, then I'll begin to suspect we are near a bottom. If we see buyers begin to step up more strongly, I'll also be able to suspect a bottom is near.


    The oscillators I follow are continuing weak(ening) with RSI and stochastic (strengthened about 10% today) just above oversold and MFI and Williams %R in oversold. Strangely, momentum stayed essentially flat with yesterday at ~90.


    I have no trend lines in play now except the long-term descending resistance, currently at ~ $0.3620.


    On my experimental charts stuff, average trade size is what I think is mid-retail, buy:sell and its averages continue in a declining trend, and volume exceeded all its averages today. If a volume “spike” suggests end of trend, this may be the day's only potential positive. But it has no support yet.


    Both versions of my experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken without any signs of “forming up” to issue a positive signal in the near-term.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    19 Mar 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • premise of the article is that 70% of 2016 model year in Europe will have stop start, but I have no idea if it means it is still Ok to use a crappy AGM battery ? If it is then we are no further ahead, there or in N America.

    19 Mar 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Those who know Axion understand how poorly AGM batteries will perform in stop-start applications. Regardless of what the public knows, however, the industry's rapid global build in new AGM manufacturing capacity is a wonderful thing for Axion because the PbC can only be built in an AGM plant and the industry has ramped capacity from a couple million AGMs a year to something approaching 20 million AGMs a year over the last few years.


    Upgrading automotive from flooded batteries to AGM batteries requires the construction of huge new AGM battery manufacturing plants. Upgrading from AGM batteries to PbC batteries only requires electrode fabrication facilities.


    Today Axion has potential customers with ten times the manufacturing capacity they had a few short years ago. Whether the industry knows it or not, their current capital spending is enabling a stunningly rapid roll out of the PbC technology once the OEMs have done all of their testing, validation and rat killing.
    19 Mar 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Damned Rat. Will no one rid me of this turbulent Rat?
    19 Mar 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Hey,
    I like FPA.
    19 Mar 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • ya see, what we need here is a rat's-ass-assasin... ;)
    19 Mar 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Buffett’s BYD Threatened by Prius in China Hybrid Shift


    "Consumer appetite failed to materialize even with financial incentives that halved the price tag of a BYD e6. The 27,800 EVs on Chinese roads are fewer than 6 percent of the government’s 2015 target -- and 0.02 percent of the total civilian fleet. For now, China needs to promote other technologies to cut the tailpipe fumes choking its cities, says one minister."

    19 Mar 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Now that the fundamental flaws in the EV fallacy are becoming more widely understood, I expect governmental support to quickly wither and die, first in China where they know how to account for all direct and indirect societal costs, and then in countries where one wonders whether the leaders took the short bus too school.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • or short limo. ;)
    19 Mar 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • In my day, the short bus took kids to Special Education. Special Education is to Education what Special Olympics is to the Olympics. I don't agree that China does such a good job at societal costs, except that the needs of the many (or the rich) outweigh those of the few.
    19 Mar 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • John
    You make a good argument for possible PBc future adoption, with that AGM scenario, frankly I had not thought of that, it makes a lot of sense.


    I just get frustrated that it has been a hellacious wait with no news on upcoming financing, BMW or whatever, IMHO we must get some news of actual sales in short order, we know this stock should be at $3 min, but we need sales and not never ending testing or potential promises, then we could all stop guessing about direction the company is taking and look to a not too distant, future roadmap, for a successful stock and market cap for Axion.


    Hopefully the waiting will end shortly, with some positive announcements ?
    19 Mar 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Nobody wants that outcome more than I do. I still have one initial goal that remains unrealized. I want to see Axion listed and trading on a national securities exchange without doing a reverse split. It's undoubtedly a character flaw, but I'm never satisfied with a project until all my goals are met.


    Today almost everyone assumes that the PbC will be an abject failure, which is the only way to justify the current market cap. When the first major customer materializes beyond a prototype or two, the presumption will rapidly shift from complete failure to complete success.
    19 Mar 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • John,


    I remember from past posts you saying that when things start turning around for a nano cap like Axion, the stock price movement can be very powerful. Do you think that if all the good things start happening for Axion, we can see a double or triple from current levels in - say- 1 or two months?


    Also, what are the requirements for Axion to be listed on AMEX for example?


    20 Mar 2013, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • I've been to a couple supply and demand rodeos with other clients and in both cases the stock price movements were violent when they occurred.



    The problem I have predicting price behavior for Axion is that my other clients had smaller supply and demand imbalances. If you think about the issue in primate terms, I have a pretty good handle on how squirrel monkeys behave but can't speak with certainty about the behavior of gorillas.
    20 Mar 2013, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • Breakthrough in Electricity Storage: New Large and Powerful Redox Flow Battery


    More and more electricity is being generated from intermittent sources of power, such as solar and wind energy. Powerful electric energy storage devices are necessary to level out corresponding irregularities in the power supply. Fraunhofer scientists have recently made an important breakthrough with their development of a redox flow battery that reaches stack power up to 25 kW, with a cell size of 0.5 square meters. This is eight times larger than the previous A4-sized systems.

    19 Mar 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • Re: flow battery blah blah


    They have managed to make the cell bigger. Therefore they are capable of somewhat higher watts/meter squared of floor space. Should reduce cost some.


    Not a break through. Not a new technology. Product tweaking and PR.
    21 Mar 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • SM...always at the bottom.


    fUel consUMPtion
    Profile: johnson controls
    1885 by Warren Johnson, inventor of
    the first electric thermostat
    Johnson Controls (JCI) has already
    released a 12- and 48-volt Micro
    Hybrid system for stop-start vehicles.
    The system is now available in Europe, and JCI plans to release it in
    North America. Initially the system
    includes separate lead-acid 12-volt
    and lithium-ion 48-volt batteries, but
    the second generation will combine
    both voltages in a single lithium-ion
    battery pack.
    the buzz
    Johnson Controls is currently the
    leading supplier of stop-start batteries
    in Europe through its VARTA brand.
    In Germany, the company’s plants in
    Hannover and Zwickau produce more
    than 11 million stop-start batteries
    annually. The company is also adding
    production facilities capable of making 6.8 million batteries per year in
    the United States. The company has
    invested $100 million to build a stopstart vehicle battery plant in China.
    brain trust
    Ray Shemanski, VP and general
    manager of OEM and hybrid systems,
    is beefing up JCI's ties with advanced
    battery system developers.
    JCI is a longstanding publicly-owned
    firm, traded on the New York Stock
    Exchange. With $42 billion in 2012
    revenue and $6.2 billion in 2012
    gross profits, it can develop and
    operate its stop-start activities out of
    its own pockets. Revenue from the
    power systems division was $5.9 billion in 2012.
    our take
    JCI's scale, legions of engineers, and
    existing relationships with automakers
    will make it a key driver of stop-start
    growth. However, its focus on leadacid technology could make it vulnerable to advances by firms researching different battery materials and
    production methods, such as Exide
    Technologies and Axion Power.
    19 Mar 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Not sure if this was posted. JCI presented again in February:



    Predicting 35 M unit global demand by 2015.
    20 Mar 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • An interesting statement by Nissan's CEO Ghosn


    Nissan CEO Ghosn: China to Save Electric Vehicle Industry by Forcing Consumers to Buy


    “China has 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world. They will set the rules so that the consumer buys—that’s how it’s going to happen.”


    "What might be seen as a fairly innocent statement, shouldn’t be taken too lightly. Ghosn is implying that China basically can enact a law that forces or coerces buyers into purchasing electric vehicles. Yes. China can and does oftentimes use its might in a forceful way within its own borders, but that’s not a statement a CEO of a major automaker should make out in public, especially when surrounded by international journalists."


    I would change that from can enact to will enact.
    However I suspect Ghosn knows he is blowing smoke as IIndelco posted a link to this article from the 14th a few hours ago.


    Buffett’s BYD Threatened by Prius in China Hybrid Shift


    "Policies favoring Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co. (1211) and other electric-vehicle makers were meant to help China vie for global leadership in a technology the government expected to replace clunkers that run on gasoline. Except, as Chairman Mao Zedong put it, “seek truth from facts,” and the fact is: EVs flopped. "
    20 Mar 2013, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • Ghosn has put his reputation on the line with EVs and I can't imagine that he'll back away from the gospel gracefully. When you pick a horse and venture into the desert, your only choices are to keep ridding or start walking.
    20 Mar 2013, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • (AXPW): "Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Production Process"



    "... and begun operating, its new improved continuous roll carbon sheeting line. The carbon sheet is a critical component of Axion's proprietary negative electrode and, to date, it has been manufactured by hand utilizing several identical stations to provide enough carbon sheet to satisfy existing PbC® battery production needs".


    "... this second generation continuous-roll carbon sheeting production line, when coupled with Axion's robotic negative electrode production line, completely automates the manufacturing process. It becomes scalable, with the capability of being replicated at the Company's New Castle facility or at any other facility throughout the world".


    "... final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions".


    "... In the last 30 days alone we have increased finished carbon sheet throughput by more than 25 percent".


    ""Now a crew of two, running the new manufacturing line, can produce 300 percent more finished carbon sheet product than could a crew of 10 operating the previous manual process, and can do so with less waste and improved quality. Additionally, the new process has resulted in a modest gain in carbon sheet 'energy capacity' due in part to better homogeneity throughout the manufactured sheet".


    20 Mar 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • I've been awaiting confirmation that Axion was finished developing the continuous carbon sheeting process for almost two years. I heard about the concept shortly after the Eureka! moment, knew it would take some time to implement and assumed the advances would be implemented slowly over time. Like many things Axion, it took a bit longer than I might have hoped for.


    Manufacturing the carbon electrode surfaces was always the most labor intensive part of the PbC production process. Replacing 40 jobs with 2 jobs and one machine is huge in terms of cost reduction since each PbC battery uses 50 or 60 carbon sheets for the electrode assemblies.


    My biggest smile came from the last line that said they didn't have to sacrifice anything in terms of quality or consistency when they moved to a fully automated process.


    Easy To Love!
    20 Mar 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • The best line in my eyes, given the discussion above about worldwide AGM capacity growth, is


    "...or at any other facility throughout the world".


    Could this be a signal about "strategic partners?"
    20 Mar 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Smaturn,
    Sounds like a reitteration of the company goals to me..


    Although it does give credence to the fact that an electrode plant can be built in Europe next to a battery plant to help out our friends at BMW.
    20 Mar 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin: Perhaps, and I hope so... But in any event, it is a very important final bit to setup Axion to match the key concern, "relevant scale". Now they can truly add production lines to supply components to AGM factories worldwide, with both productivity levels that will make that move far quicker and easier, and additional pricing power as a result of automation of a key step.


    This could shave months off the time needed to add lines AND produce "relevant scale" mass quantities.


    Frankly, I noticed this topic buried in our database of discussion over a year ago, but had forgotten it (or discounted it as not critical, since even the lack of automation would not necessarily prevent setting up production lines). This is very big news...
    20 Mar 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Ahhhh, The process that was theoretically behind us. The high risk step I've been sweating about that TG buried in silence. The balance of the process for me.....far more simple.



    20 Mar 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • ii,
    I will sing that song when the first major (non-testing) order appears.
    I know that manufacturing processes are difficult, but I never do