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  • Axion Power Concentrator 233: May 5: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond 372 comments
    May 5, 2013 7:02 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

    Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "Axion continued to make important strides in the fourth quarter, making 2012 a landmark year overall. Obviously our best year ever will be the first year when PbC revenue starts to show significant growth but it was a good step in that direction that we were able to recognize the first big PbC sale in the 4th quarter, to Norfolk Southern. This coincides with our first 10K filing without "development stage company" status. With our increase in sales, and more specifically sales of our core business product, we are now recognized as a commercial entity for filing purposes.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 5/3/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    Over 50,000 comments!

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 5/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (372)
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  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Bam! First time!
    5 May 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Always congrats to a first time winner.

     

    Here is hoping you don't spend all your Axion profits in one place.
    (actually I never quite figured out that old saying, but I suspect it meant be conservative with your spending.)

     

    Anyway, heres hoping you have profits.
    5 May 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (759) | Send Message
     
    Happy Cinco de Mayo.
    I wonder how much of a lightning strike a chain of PbCs could take?
    5 May 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    Apmarshall62:
    Muchas Gracias. Great Job.

     

    Again, Gracias-Carlos
    5 May 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Miss Congeniality again.
    5 May 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Well what do you know! I'm cinco on Cinco de Mayo! :-)
    5 May 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    For the 5th time- congrats
    5 May 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Futurist
    Congratulations to you too MR cinc0,000 (de Mayo) comment prize winner.
    5 May 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1218) | Send Message
     
    Tomorrow is a new day!
    5 May 2013, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    Occam: Must you remind us? Groan.
    5 May 2013, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    Well... it'll be a different day anyway. BUT, will it be the same, uh...stuff?

     

    Like sand through the hourglass, so are the days of our lives....
    6 May 2013, 02:36 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Never thought I would see the day that there is so little Axion news that this board ran out of cogent subjects to discuss. Mark the 233rd instablog as the first. But the 15th is approaching.
    6 May 2013, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Ditto for nada...
    6 May 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    We need new grist for the mill - TG & Co. need to provide it.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    NS could make news for me very easily.
    6 May 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile, we wait as ...

     

    http://bit.ly/10g5p8z

     

    Describes us, I thnk.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    I know some of us feel like this too ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1066a25

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    "We will sell no wine before it's time."

     

    http://bit.ly/wADLlv

     

    LG Chem to Start Volt Battery Production in Michigan Plant

     

    "...once it has successfully completed the Production Part Approval Process and gained customer approval."

     

    http://bit.ly/13lIOG5
    6 May 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "once it has successfully completed the Production Part Approval Process and gained customer approval"

     

    Does this mean another couple years of community service and card tables? I mean, July for all that?

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    HTL, PPAP's are all unique but essentially they have what is called a "Run at Rate" where the supplier has to run their facilities at the cycle rate that will support the quoted capacity to the customer which in this case is GM. Parts from this run will be used to run tests to assure that the parts meet all the requirements when they are run at rate with all the tools in place as they would be run on a continuous basis once the end customer is fully ramped. How long all this takes is dependent on the risks that need to be managed as defined in documents that are developed by the supplier and the customer prior to the run.

     

    Here, Wiki gives an OK overview.

     

    http://bit.ly/xHdK8Q
    6 May 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Thanks. From your experience, is July a reasonable possibility?

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    HTL, It would tell me that considerable work on the test side has already been done with the equipment in the format that will be used for the Run at Rate. It also tells me that most likely the equipment is a replica of another line or lines which is highly probable since LG is already supporting the final product anyway. Duplicates are almost always easier but still require close attention. We witnessed what can happen if you don't pay close attention when we saw A123 with their weld issue. That was a duplicate increment of capacity.

     

    So short answer. Yes.

     

    PS The card tables will have to be certified over a longer period of time because of the inherent process variables that can occur on such a tool.
    6 May 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • givemethewedge
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    I asked long ago about what modifications are required to a "standard" ICE to accommodate the PbC...I forgot the answer. Is this a huge deal for any part of the supply/manufacturing process or would automakers pretty much just take something like that in stride?

     

    Is it also correct that the pbC cannot be used with a manual transmission?

     

    Mil perdones if this has been covered before....the peeps look bored today.
    6 May 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2213) | Send Message
     
    Engineering start-stop technology (regardless of battery technology) is a minor to moderate engineering effort (not major, not trivial). Using PbC (instead of traditional AGM) for a start-stop vehicle is a minor incremental effort.

     

    Start-stop technology probably is somewhat easier to implement on a manual transmission than an automatic.

     

    Big auto manufacturers are very conservative; even a minor effort becomes an extended process.
    6 May 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • givemethewedge
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    RK...many thanks. Like others was just(still)wondering about why things taking an eternity....

     

    I also thought I had read that for whatever reason manual transmissions were a no-can-do with the PbC...glad to read I was wrong.
    6 May 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Testing and validation seems like an unending torture until you take a minute to consider things from the automaker's perspective. New car buyers don't generally expect everything to be perfect in their new car but the one flaw no buyer will tolerate is a car that just sits there when he turns the key.

     

    Automakers test batteries to death because they can't afford to make a mistake – EVER. The goal of their testing and validation is always to weed out the unsuitable products as quickly as possible and ensure that they know everything there is to know about a new product before it hits the road.

     

    For better or worse the PbC is different from other automotive batteries and while it offers extraordinary performance in emerging applications like micro-hybrids, it's not your grandfather's battery. Where you or I are perfectly happy holding our pants up with a belt, the automakers prefer a belt, suspenders, superglue and a staple gun.
    6 May 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    "Where you or I are perfectly happy holding our pants up with a belt, the automakers prefer a belt, suspenders, superglue and a staple gun."

     

    LOL John. And you need test plans to validate all 4 of these will hold your pants up at a 6 sigma confidence level in the water, a tornado, when jumping off a cliff and any other situation related to unknowns we don't now about.
    6 May 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    ISTM that placement of the staple is *most* critical.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    It can be a riveting experience.
    6 May 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Smaturin: Yikes! That's even worse!

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Interesting slide with Axion mention in MDB Capital presentation. See Slide 10.

     

    http://bit.ly/18N8ige
    6 May 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: Interesting that the purple, Axion, appears in so many bars with really noticable volume. I wonder if this is the investment bank AXPW is using.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... That is an interesting set of slides. The type of investment bank that Axion needs. I am a little confused about slide 10 (wish Axion had a more distinct color) because I'm not totally sure what "Ample White Space" exactly means and I notice there are no Axion bars in the area that I can see. Room for improvement on the patent front? Not much industry activity in these categories? I'm just not clear.
    6 May 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (911) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion in that graph is light purple and SMA is the dark purple. That means the only items that would be tied to Axion is the 'Single Point of Grid Connection - Apps"

     

    I hope we aren't using these guys. They will fund a company for proceeds on the backend. They are like the royalty miners.
    6 May 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, I'm with you. The few times I've seen MDB Capital associated with companies raising capital my impressions were not favorable.
    6 May 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    We'd all prefer Goldman Sachs, but – http://bit.ly/UJ6pKV
    6 May 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    MDB has also been involved with funding and coverage on ZBB.
    6 May 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    John, I can dream for anything. Don't bother me with details like for instance Axion couldn't afford Goldman for the first meeting.

     

    Well not yet anyway.

     

    http://bit.ly/12buKgW
    6 May 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    Axionistas today?

     

    http://bit.ly/16c5pJp
    6 May 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    It says that the client is interested in grid storage, so I don't think it's Axion but a potential customer of Axion. However Axion is on the radar.

     

    Personally I think a future royalty deal is no worse than a share offering. Someone like MDB would at least be able to value the patents and potential better than a financing investor interested in the share price of the last 40 days.
    6 May 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (911) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    Tis true. As soon as I wrote it I figured I would need to clarify/restate.

     

    I'd prefer a fixed rate bond offering but I understand the impracticalities of such. I've not reviewed MDB specifially but am aware of PANL and their deal which actually doesn't look too terrible. These companies often provide loans at rates which make loansharks blush and get an % of sales as well. They have value but I too often see these deals in junior miners who have no one else to turn to and they often grow but can never pay these guys off. I can live with it but I'd prefer not to. Off to the dentist now.

     

    Seriously.

     

    Ugh.
    6 May 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    MrHolty: Let's hope the dentist isn't heavily into DD and "driiling deep"! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    I've never had a client fail because it raised too much equity. I've lost millions in small companies that got ahead of themselves and borrowed money that they couldn't repay. In my experience debt is the kiss of death for micro-caps.
    6 May 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Probably discussed already, but EP getting some love from the great state of PA.

     

    http://bit.ly/18OiHrV

     

    The company received a funding offer from the Department of Community and Economic Development including a $500,000 Pennsylvania First Program grant, $800,000 in Job Creation Tax Credits, $180,000 in Guaranteed Free Training, and a $5,000,000 in a 10-year low-interest loan at 1.5 percent from the Machinery and Equipment Loan Fund.

     

    In addition, the Pennsylvania Industrial Development Authority will provide a $6 million, 15-year low-interest loan at 1.5 percent to the Greater Berks Development Fund on behalf of East Penn.

     

    “East Penn is a successful and entrepreneurial manufacturing company investing locally, adding more than 400 sustainable jobs,” Edward J. Swoyer Jr., President of the Greater Berks Development Fund said. “I?couldn’t think of a better investment that aligns with the goals of the state’s and the county’s economic development programs.”
    6 May 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    I like their tagline "seeing value where others do not". Kind of sums us all up, doesn't it?
    6 May 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Will Electric Vehicles Hurt the Auto Industry’s Recycling?
    http://bit.ly/YpW5MX

     

    A contrary opinion to “Will Electric Vehicles Hurt the Auto Industry’s Recycling?” by Insideevs.
    Are Electric Vehicles Less Recyclable Than Conventional Automobiles?
    http://bit.ly/18NgsoS
    6 May 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Reading material
    Batteries
    A readable article on an IEA Publication
    International Energy Agency: World Spent $8.7 Billion to Reduce Battery Costs by 50% in 5 Years
    http://bit.ly/11RMHCp

     

    Here is the IEA download site for the report.
    http://bit.ly/188NS3K

     

    ORNL leading study focus on afterlife of electric vehicle batteries
    http://1.usa.gov/15kwESv

     

    BMW to Open Advanced Battery and Electric Vehicle Research Lab in Asia
    http://bit.ly/1284wNL

     

    Germanium-Based Battery Claimed to Double Range of Electric Vehicles
    http://bit.ly/15kwGtz
    Germanium is a rareish element. Of all elements in the earth’s crust it’s abundance is #50 with production of 118 tones. Only 2 elements that are reported on The Wikipedia chart are produced are produced in lower quantities than Germanium.
    http://bit.ly/1284w08

     

    A longer life for lithium-sulfur batteries
    http://bit.ly/15kwGtB

     

    Scientists at the Fraunhofer Institute for Material and Beam Technology IWS in Dresden have developed a new design that increases the charge cycles of lithium-sulfur batteries by a factor of seven. “During previous tests, the batteries scarcely crossed the 200-cycle mark. By means of a special combination of anode and cathode material, we have now managed to extend the lifespan of lithium-sulfur button cells to 1,400 cycles,”
    6 May 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    More evidence that Mitsubishi i-MiEV is leaving the US but not the EV field.

     

    Former Tobacco Factory Transformed into Mitsubishi-Backed Electric Vehicle Research Center in Spain
    http://bit.ly/11NXGLn
    6 May 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (508) | Send Message
     
    damn...even the speculation has dried up...off to find the ZBB power concentrator, where-ever that is...
    6 May 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • tonys23
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Alas, speculation seems to have dried up there, too.
    6 May 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Since it's a slow day, I thought I'd bring up something I've been wondering about. Axion published a paper in the SAE journal last fall that graphed SOH (state of health) for an AGM vs *two* different PBC batteries (PBC#1 and #2). Nothing was said about the differences between the two batteries although the SOH graph showed #2 holding up better with cycling. (My original comment: http://seekingalpha.co...)

     

    An email from Dr. Dickinson confirmed the trend and he stated: "However, the test has continued since the submission of this draft and the batteries are at 22 weeks and 18 weeks as of the last data review – with the difference between each type much larger now. " It's not crystal clear from the context if he's talking about AGM/PBC or PBC#1 / #2 differences and I can't find the updated graphs, but the context implies to me that PBC#2 is doing better than #1.

     

    The interesting question is, is PBC#2 the PBC made by the automated automated carbon sheeting process? Does anyone have an updated version of that graph?
    6 May 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Renzo,
    Since the chart about PbC #1 and #2 was in September, 2012 and the New carbon sheeting process was later, I have my doubts they are connected. But who knows.
    6 May 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: I suspect it was only the *announcement* of the success of the new sheeting process was later. Based on the patent application, it appears that at least some sheets were made with the new process as they were able to cite a percentage improvement at both the cell and battery levels.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    That makes sense.
    6 May 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    The sheeting process has been in development for a couple years. The announcement was that the process had been successfully scaled and was performing better than management expected.

     

    That being said I have no earthly idea what the difference was between the two batteries Axion was testing last summer and fall.
    6 May 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Renzo, why not ask Mr. Dickerson?
    6 May 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    My thinking was similar, HTL.

     

    I'm probably over-reading the situation (due to paint fume inhalation), but if data was developing last spring and summer that suggested PbC's made with the automated-process carbon sheets worked better than the originals, that could have caused some delay in sales progress.
    6 May 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Ice-Bear gets another system installed (my guess is that Verde paid them for the system) Article has a link to a video on the system after a little fluff on the city of Naperville at the start.

     

    City of Naperville and Verde Energy USA Successfully Install IceBear™ Technology at Naperville's Water Service Center
    * Reuters is not responsible for the content in this press release.
    Mon May 6, 2013 11:30am EDT

     

    http://reut.rs/13cZ6lw

     

    Original Announcement (12/13/2012):
    http://bit.ly/12bENT7
    6 May 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    Ultrabattery story ...

     

    http://bit.ly/106YyMU
    6 May 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    "Testing has shown that the UltraBattery has a life-cycle at least four times longer, and produces 50 per cent more power, than comparable battery systems.

     

    Most hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) use nickel-metal-hydride batteries, which can be expensive to produce. When used in HEVs, the UltraBattery is a leap forward for low-emission transport and the uptake of HEVs around the world, due to its significantly lower-cost and higher-charge and discharge performance. Production of the UltraBattery can be completed in existing lead acid battery factories, reducing production costs by 20–40 per cent than nickel-metal-hydride batteries"

     

    How much do nickel-metal-hydride batteries run?
    6 May 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, For what application?

     

    If you're talking about a massive roll out in grid support and automotive forget about it. MiMH batteries use significant Lanthanum which is an REE. Most comes from China and there is not enough to support broad adoption anyway. Plus there are significant patent locks.
    6 May 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: here's two prices for lanthanum oxide. China domestic price $5.83/kilo and FOB China is $9.30/kilo.

     

    This will change, maybe quite dramatically as the China plans TB has addressed elsewhere come to fruition.

     

    http://bit.ly/12Gg1wG

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL!

     

    As you can see by the historical pricing on your chart supply is a concern with China being pretty much in control of supply. And from what I've read they are continuing to adjust exports as they view them as strategic. We've seen the Japanese react to this by working harder in recycling efforts and also along paths to have alternatives.

     

    Since it appears you follow this I'm sure you're aware of this and probably more knowledgeable on the topic than I. All I can say is the auto industry will not become as overly dependent on this tech. as T has. T and the rest will adjust as quickly as they can.
    6 May 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    For automotive, was wondering if we could guesstimate a price point from the 20-40 percent cheaper statement ...
    6 May 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Care to guess on mark-ups for after market. Generally they are significant. I'll look for something better.

     

    "Toyota hybrid battery replacement costs

     

    Below is a list of MSRP battery cost details for the three generations of Prius model, as well as those for the Camry Hybrid sedan and Highlander Hybrid SUV.

     

    2001-2003 Toyota Prius (1st generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
    2004-2008 Toyota Prius (2nd generation) - $3,649 minus $1,350 "core credit"
    2009-present Toyota Prius (3rd generation) - $3,939 minus $1,350 "core credit"
    Toyota Camry Hybrid - $3,541, core credit deducted
    Toyota Highlander Hybrid - $4,848, core credit deducted

     

    Toyota didn't specify labor rates for the Camry or Highlander, but a pack in the 2nd-generation Prius takes 1.7 hours to replace (given its similarity to the first-generation Prius, we'd assume a similar time for that vehicle too) and a 3rd-generation Prius battery pack has labor of 1.6 hours. Once again, these rates vary depending on your location."

     

    http://bit.ly/10i4bJX

     

    "There are two principal battery packs, the High Voltage (HV) battery, also known as the traction battery, and a 12 volt battery known as the Low Voltage (LV) battery. The traction battery is a sealed 38-module nickel metal hydride (NiMH) battery pack providing 273.6 volts, 6.5 A·h capacity and weighing 53.3 kg (118 lb)[126] is supplied by Japan's Panasonic EV Energy Co. They are normally charged between 40–60% of maximum capacity to prolong battery life as well as allow headroom for regenerative braking. Each battery pack uses 10–15 kg (22–33 lb) of lanthanum, and each Prius electric motor contains 1 kg (2 lb) of neodymium; production of the car is described as "the biggest user of rare earths of any object in the world."[127] The LV battery is essential to starting the car, providing initial power to the computer."

     

    http://bit.ly/10k8e3G
    6 May 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Two comments. First, I'm a little confused. I have read on several Toyota hybrid user discussion boards that it is rare to need a complete pack replacement. They claim that, in most cases, you only need to switch out a bad cell, when one fails, and that the cells are only about $50. Surely this is correct?? They also claim that the pack itself should out live the life of most of the vehicles, so this is a moot point anyway.
    I have found it interesting when the drivers of hybrids find out that, while they have this big traction battery to help move the car, to actually get the ICE started they have a small LA battery that can fail if they leave their lights on or don't drive the car for a few weeks. So a two battery system is not just needed for using a PbC with start-stop functions in a micro-hybrid or mild-hybrid system, but is also true for full hybrids with a large battery pack.
    6 May 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, There are offers for Prius cells on Ebay. Caution as some are used.

     

    Be careful when you assign the level of cost or effort of repairing/replacing something as a value close to the cost of the replacement part. The cell cost is one thing. Taking the entire pack from the vehicle, disassembling the pack, checking all the cells and auxiliary components is where the real cost lies. Oh, and doing it safely.

     

    I saw one forum where a Prius driver claimed that he had a competent back yard mechanic do his first generation Prius pack, changing two cells, for between 500 and 600 USD. The article I referenced earlier indicated T mechanics get about 2 hours to swap the pack with a reconditioned one. Far more effort in the rebuild of the pack I'm sure. Don't know how long you can expect a pack to operate with a mixture of end of life cells and new ones but I'd sure research it heavily before I spent that kind of money for an out the door guarantee.

     

    The LAB is required to start the engine because it has better operational characteristics over a broader temperature range. Perhaps other reasons as well based on the power bus design in the vehicle.

     

    http://bit.ly/YqBsAn
    6 May 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Neodymium $47 domestic China price and $0.70 FOB China, each price per kilo.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    He-he! Been watching AXPW price too long: "$0.70 FOB China" s/b "$70 FOB China".

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Market caps XIDE - 54.03 million USD, AXPW - 30.57 million USD.

     

    The market sure seems to be moving the odds pretty quickly towards the need for another restructuring at Exide.
    6 May 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    The numbers just amaze me. Exide's $3 billion in annual sales are not going anywhere. Neither is its global manufacturing and distribution footprint. If I hadn't seen a nasty forced restructuring in C&D a couple years back, I'd be beating the Exide drum pretty hard long about now.
    6 May 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    John, The obvious problems with Exide is Europe and the inability to right size there. Also the Cali. event. You have to be very careful giving regulators with green colored glasses an opportunity to come into your plant. They along with the lawyers after an event as we've seen recently will look for any excuse to milk you dry.

     

    I agree, they are not going away. The risk is that someone else gets the good parts in a restructuring.
    6 May 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    John and IINDelco,
    The other problem, as I see it, is that you've got a $3 billion company who's management can't seem to make a profit or stop tripping over their own feet. I read some of the local articles for the California plant. It became quite evident that these were problems, at least for the emissions, that have been talked about for years, and in the context of another company's plant with similar issues. Exide had plenty of time to get ahead of the emissions, and upgrade the plant, but instead of updating the plant, they just made threats to the local government that if they were pushed too far they would close the plant and the city would lose all those jobs. Well, now they are facing a situation where the regulators have stepped in and can point to the fact that the other company in question did make the upgrades and Exide didn't. So now it's not about Exide threatening to just close the plant and the workers lose out on jobs, but instead you have the regulators closing the plant when Exide can't afford to lose the money they make from recycling the lead.
    If it were my money, I wouldn't touch Exide until they show me a management team that can show me a plan of how they are going to keep the company out of a second Bankruptcy. IMHO
    6 May 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (990) | Send Message
     
    buy bonds is you want exide stuff imo.
    6 May 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Some players have to be licking their chops about now, running some numbers while waiting to see what happens to Exide. Maybe the company will just blow out their problems in a bk and come back as Ground Hog Day Battery Company, or Zombie Battery Company---"we stab ourselves with our leady knives, but we just can't kill the beast".
    7 May 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • givemethewedge
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    JP...I can appreciate the testing involved. I think I was looking for how different is the starter, alternator or whatever when a PbC is involved.

     

    RK pointed out something I hadn't considered. They've already tweaked the "standard" ICE for SS using AGM...a complete waste of time and money it seems. Regardless, if you now decide to toss in a PbC instead of an AGM, would you happen to know how much further "tweaking" may or may not be involved? With a SS system engineered and in place how far are we from plug and play if you are satisfied with the batteries(PbC) performance?

     

    As you say, testing and testing and re-testing is necessary. It seems encouraging that after all this time the battery has not yet been rejected...I also have to take into consideration that you can't sell in bulk what 10 guys and a pizza oven can't produce. As to "fleet testing", didn't get much from google in terms of what that entails, specifically in terms of numbers. Would you know(or anyone)does that generally mean 100 vehicles? 1000? 10? If it were 1000 am I correct in assuming we're now capable of having them on BMW's doorstep in short order?

     

    Many thanks for any comments...

     

    btw, imo a very impressive site with some very impressive contributors...
    6 May 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    There are smarter people than me who can describe the tweaking needed to replace a flooded or AGM battery with a PbC, but it's my understanding that it's not a major job.

     

    The only fleet testing description I've found for BMW was an AGM vs flooded test a few years ago that involved "320 test batteries, 544 test vehicles and 14.176.476 driven test kilometres" spread over three different fleets: police cars, airport limos, and roadside assistance vehicles.

     

    It's more fully described in a pair of 2009 papers in the Journal of Power Sources. The principal author was A.O. Stoermer.
    6 May 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • alejotum
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Ultrabattery story ...

     

    CSIRO UltraBattery team member Dr Peter Coppin says that a number of large-scale demonstration projects both completed and in-planning have shown the battery’s applications in power system support and smoothing. These projects include wind smoothing at Hampton Wind Farm in New South Wales and grid support at the PJM in Pennsylvania, United States.

     

    http://bit.ly/10igXbj

     

    ...anyone? Thanks!
    6 May 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    The Auto Company that Can't be Named had a stock price increase of about 9% today, 6 May.

     

    To quote (paraphrase?) someone, "the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent". That just about says it all.

     

    Glad I didn't short it at $30/shr !!
    6 May 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7736) | Send Message
     
    Glad I went long with an average cost below $30. I did take some profits at $54.50 because I expect a pull back but still have most of my shares.
    6 May 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1218) | Send Message
     
    Nicely done, JRP3. I try to remind myself everyday that stocks are just trading vehicles (no pun intended). Good job taking some off the table. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit.
    7 May 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    On altoona works facebook:
    "4/2013, NS 999 has been inside the building for several months now undergoing upgrades and tests."

     

    with picture. Don't know if the link will work...

     

    http://on.fb.me/ZLXizh
    6 May 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Pascquale: That's great! It confirms what we've speculated, that they wouldn't have it inside unless they were doing something.

     

    I like the "tests" part - that often signals nearing the end of the upgrade process.

     

    http://bit.ly/12cfW1L

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    It's always important to remember that this is their second try after a high profile failure the first time around. As near as I can tell NS spent more time testing the PbC than they spent building the original prototype. I view their attention to detail and expanded timing as a sign that word has come down from on high that there will not be a second failure.
    6 May 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Someone on Facebook asked when it will be ready for yard work testing.

     

    Reply: It's going to be awhile.

     

    :-(
    6 May 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4738) | Send Message
     
    Tom Claeys Thanks for the update, AW. Any word on when it might be ready for yard work testing?
    about an hour ago

     

    AltoonaWorks It's going to be a while.
    54 minutes ago
    6 May 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (909) | Send Message
     
    I am sure there will not be a second failure--at least not a publicly acknowledged one. If for some reason preliminary tests do not look good, my guess is they will just let it die quietly.

     

    In any event, it is becoming pretty clear that the NS999 is not NS's highest priority and certainly is not going to be generating sales for Axion in 2013.

     

    I am now pinning my hopes on all these RFPs that TG said were coming in might pan out to some significant sales.
    7 May 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    I saw that pic this afternoon, and did my monthly check-in.

     

    Their contact tells my source"it's an empty shell and someone is only just starting to run wires."

     

    My surmise is that while it's been inside for a while, not much has happened on it. Stunning, I know. Just doesn't seem like a priority, but we don't know why among the many possible reasons.
    6 May 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    I really have to wonder if they haven't been doing the upgrade in two steps. Step one was building the new racking system and testing the PbC batteries in it inside the plant. It's the only thing that makes sense, considering how long they've had the batteries. I wonder if they are just now starting to run the wires for the engine, because they've finally finished their out of engine tests on the batteries and the new racks and now are ready to put them inside and see if they get the same results when the batteries are in the engine. IMHO
    6 May 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    WTB, As always I have to tell you how much we appreciate your peek at what's going on.

     

    I theorized some time ago that the engineers would be testing systems outside of the NS999 platform before integration. It's far easier for them to flex all these system in house while stationary before they send it out. Once they get this done the integration to the NS-999 platform will almost be immediate by comparison.

     

    All of this being said I'm shocked at the amount of capital and resources that have been spent on this program given the outcome appearing to be being watching "pitch flow". Clearly my impressions concerning the priority of this program at NS have been, from a timing aspect only, way off the mark.

     

    I can understand caution given the huge failure of the initial NS-999 program with AGM batteries but this eh tiring. I say this only because it would have been an Axion "feather in the cap" when it would be very important. Hey I have an Axionist bias.

     

    The sock drawer guys will be fine. Me as well, but I have one of those Freudian anally retentive things :)
    7 May 2013, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Thanks for keeping up with this.

     

    I guess NSC is just not that into NS999. Diesels and now gensets are a demonstrated & proven technology while batteries have failed 4 times in a row. We might see a Green Goat out of RailPower before we see NS999 and Corman is not all that interested in it either but testing does continue.

     

    Sigh.
    7 May 2013, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Thanks WT,
    I guess NS is still interested as they continue putting resources into the NS999. Maybe for NS this program is proceeding too hastily. Perhaps as TG alluded to, some of the other suppliers have delayed the timeline to completion. I bought a tuxedo for the "NS999 Debutante Extravaganza" and it doesn't fit anymore and has gone out of style. I think NS is doing this just to PMO.

     

    Doesn't NS have to meet some type of EPA pollution regulations in the near future, and isn't this why we thought NS was making the NS999 a priority? At least that was my impression.
    7 May 2013, 02:56 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    In light of what your contact told you, I think it is unwise from Axion shareholders to hold high hopes for rail customers in the short to intermediate term. One question to ask management would be how diversified is their customer base becoming (besides NS and other rail companies), because the last thing we want is for Axion to be putting nearly all its eggs in one basket
    7 May 2013, 04:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Everything I've read says the Juniata shop has plenty of work. The clients I've represented over the years don't use valuable work space as long-term storage for projects they aren't into. While informal reports and observations of an employee who's willing to talk out of school are interesting, they're far from definitive. On balance, all this angst over what NS is doing reminds me of middle school speculation about whether Susie likes Bobby.
    7 May 2013, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Very true John, but again as TG stated many times over, there is far more low hanging fruit out there to keep Axion busy over the short term.
    7 May 2013, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes the blistering progress at NS leaves me feeling a bit like this

     

    http://bit.ly/11PPLxd

     

    Mercifully I get the occasional report that ePower is doing very well and they surprised a team of about 20 Cummins engineers when they ran the truck on the Columbus test track a week ago.
    7 May 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Assuming that the ePower test goes very well, do you see any follow on order for truck retrofitting in the very short term, maybe even from other customers? It seems to me that this could very well be Axion's first source of steady revenue going forward.

     

    By the way, "the automaker who shall not be named" reports results today. We shall see the fan club's reaction, but I think 70 dollars a share is within reach shortly. Thank god I didn't short it!
    7 May 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    I hope the Cummins engineers got a big dose of PbC benefits and can design a stop/start product around it, or a hybrid system around it.
    7 May 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I am sure that NSC is interested in the OTR, just not switchers. It wouldn't surprise me to see the NS999 lashed to a consist straight out of the shop.
    7 May 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    I'm baffled by the time it's taking, but I seem to spend a lot of time feeling that way. I never would have imagined that the process could be this time-consuming, detail-oriented and downright tedious. At the same time I'm very encouraged by the investments these users are making in their proposed applications for the PbC. Times like these make me wish we had a consumer product that we could flog to dreamers at an inflated price.
    7 May 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    I too sometimes wish the battery industry was more like the software industry...
    7 May 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I thought about that as well. However I have to imagine the performance of an NS999 with its storage capacity requirements would be far different than what we were told an OTR application would require. Tied in with their leader efforts I'd think it would be an entirely different animal and probably not worth the effort. As precise as they have been on this program it just seems an odd time to change gears to doing something half a@#ed
    7 May 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (909) | Send Message
     
    I think best we can hope for from NS is that they spend the rest of 2013 getting it assembled and most of 2014 putting it through the rigors of railyard testing. IF railyard testing is highly successful (and that's still a big IF), then perhaps they will decide to build one or two more in 2015; but, given NS's glacial pace of progress, those would not be ready for batteries until some time in 2016 or later. I just don't see any way that NS will be a big source of sales any time in the near future.
    7 May 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... If you're baffled, let me posit my best guess for why the NS999 sits in the shop as an empty shell. My best guess (to maintain my sanity) is that the boys in white coats from Roanoke are instructing the Gimme-Cap Gang on how to maintain & troubleshoot this new technology. A fairly detailed manual & trained operations mechanics needs to be in-place before this loco rolls out the door. I would think that is better achieved with the systems out in the open and not tucked away inside. I can easily see this process taking months.
    7 May 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I'm just a tiny bit frustrated with the process. Every application we know of that is using Axion's PbC seems to come to light and vanish. Trains are, followed by trucks, grid & marine, my primary interest and I'm years beyond my patience levels.
    7 May 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Amouna
    Tesla reports tomorrow not today.

     

    "It will post its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2013, after market close on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. "
    7 May 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Still, NSC making another order for its OTR application is very good news that could happen this year. And, it's a nice chunk of change just for testing batteries.
    7 May 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    metro, the much tighter emission requirements, so-called "Tier 4", kick in on 1/1/2015. BUT they are for new locos and new engines only. NS does a lot of rebuilds of existing engines and locos, and those don't apply. For example, AltoonaWorks said that the sd60e rebuild program's locos only have to meet Tier 0, as the locos were originally built in the 1980s. NS is voluntarily making them Tier 2 compliant, but that's far from Tier 4.

     

    My focus on PC sales results is due to my thinking (and Axion's, based on their conference call comments) that they are the only near-term significant sales opportunity. Unfortunately, it's been a complete whiff so far.

     

    The one wild card remains a potential BMW fleet order. Also unfortunately, we're at least three months past the date expected by Granville for 3rd party testing to be completed (his 8/16/2012 quote: "By the “near-term” I’m talking six months or less now that
    the testing has actually begun.") and no order has been announced. He also said, on 11/15/2012, "Like anything there have been some starts and stops but we’re still positive about it.", so the issue is not just timing---there is at least some doubt that BMW will ever use PbCs at all.
    7 May 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Mr I,
    Thanks for your reply about the emission requirements. I couldn't recall exactly how it worked.
    7 May 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (512) | Send Message
     
    I also am having a hard time trying to come up with plausible potential sales for the balance of 2013. Mr. I, I have little hope for powercubes because it seems to me that all the deployments to date have been experiments financed to some extent by the government. I think we're a long way from utilities getting public utility commissions to bundle storage into their cost structures. However, I am surprised that Axion hasn't sold one or two powercubes given that it seems every battery supplier except Axion has made such sales. That would seem to be a sign that the pricing is way off or that Axion isn't plugged into that market at all. It sure seems that Viridity is either ineffective or that relationship has gone south in some way.

     

    I'm still expecting NS to buy the batteries for the over-the-road locomotive some time in 2013. If that sale doesn't take place it would indicate that something is wrong on that front.

     

    As far as I can tell, ePower is our great hope and we're looking at $250,000 in 2013 sales from there. I'm not being facetious in saying that. The application is the only one so far that makes strong economic sense for the buyer of the batteries (no intermediaries, minimal incremental outlay, quick payback, good total return all with little hassle or downside). Now, ePower is a pipsqueak of a company that is a long, long way from making a dent in the market. Still, ePower is showing the way, and I believe it is extremely likely some variant of its solution will be deployed by someone on a large scale and that Axion's batteries will get an important share of that market.

     

    BMW is a completely regulatory-driven opportunity and the needed regulations aren't yet in place and won't be until the technology path is well established. Therefore it is clear that BMW will not be an early adopter of the PbC. Once the PbC has generated about $100m in revenue from other sources, BMW may move forward. In other words, consider it a lottery ticket or a long-term call option on Axion's stock with a strike price of $5.

     

    So, if you squint, potential PbC revenue in 2013 may triple or quadruple over the ~$1m in 2012 revenue but that will make only a minimal dent in the company's $2m/quarter burn rate. It would seem that the financing is a done deal (imagine the lawsuits if it isn't) but it is clear we need more than a year's worth of operating capital.

     

    Many of us are frustrated by Axion's management. To me, what I don't understand is the early investors. If they are in at $2/share say in 2005 and we're at 170m shares outstanding (I'd be thrilled if Axion could raise $20m for 50m shares right now), Axion will still need at least a $500m valuation in two years for them to break-even relative to the opportunity cost of an investment in government bonds (4%).

     

    For Axion to get that valuation, I think the company would need to grow PbC revenue to $25m in 2014 from $3-4m this year with clear visibility to $75m in 2015.

     

    So, to repeat myself, if you are one of the early investors, from your perspective we need a bunch of success from here on out for you to break-even vs. t-bills on your investment. To get 12% annual return with 170m shares outstanding we need a $1b 2015 valuation.
    7 May 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4012) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps there is a chance the truck run "on the Columbus test track a week ago" was a second (or third) ePower conversion vehicle using a Cummins engine with PbCs instead of a John Deere.
    7 May 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    Talk about an "Aha moment" --sometimes a picture is worth 1E9 words... and mr. squirrel, I feel for ya brother... just about perfectly sums up the year I've been having too...
    7 May 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Al, thanks for sharing your take. I think you have it right.

     

    No mention of the hub and I don't blame you. Rosewater has been awfully quiet.
    7 May 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Remember PowerCubes didn't get UL cert until Dec or Jan. That means we should ask TG about these on this coming call, as unlikely any sales were possible beforehand. Likely the increased RFP mentioned were for PCs.

     

    I do think if a partner is found, Axion will get over its final hump year in 2013 and be profitable 2014.
    7 May 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    metro, no problemo, hope that helped. I will say that to fully understand how the federal, state and local emission regs affect Axion, has been beyond the scope of any comments that I have read here or anywhere else. We could really use an expert's advice, to fill in the following equation: catalyst: government regulation changes, which lead to ______ and _______ and _______, which induces NS to purchase _______ number of PbC batteries beginning on ________.

     

    For example, what choices will NS have? GE and other OEMs are working on Tier 4 compliant new locos, I've read. I've also seen "pooling" mentioned, so perhaps there will be some blending of emissions for requirement satisfaction purposes across the fleet. Perhaps the RRs will just rebuild more and buy less new. The net is that I have yet to see strong evidence that the implications of 1/1/2015 will be a big deal for Axion anytime soon.
    7 May 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    apm, who wouldn't like the new deal to be at 40 cents?! ;^) My guess is half that price or so. But I'm starting to think there is a problem there, too. Long delay is almost never an indication of strength. And sure would be nice to have enough capital so prospective customers are no longer worried much about your staying power. Can't be helping PC sales at the moment.

     

    As far as overall PbC sales for 2013, I also don't expect much improvement from last year---OTR in Q4 (NS back-end loads their capx, and NS999 yard testing won't come for awhile), and truck and auto sales immaterial. PC sales---not looking good.

     

    About the early investors---if they're rational, they'll ignore the past, as they should, and only look prospectively. I suspect that the Board has been and is being fed happytalk by mgmt (part of the reason I wrote my letter to them), so most of them are still expecting an explosion of sales this year and next. That would guide their decision-making.

     

    There are still some ways out of this growing mess, I think. Close the new financing deal. Bring in new mgmt that's really good at sales, relationship-building, manufacturing and clarity. Lower prices and close some PC deals. Revisit potential strategic partners.
    7 May 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    48,
    Don't feel too bad for the squirrel. I've had a bird feeder in a similar situation before, and I can tell you that if you put a video on that squirrel you would see that it is getting all the seeds it wants. It will hold on with its back feet, bend backwards, and take a handful of seeds at a time. It won't be easy, but its belly will be full. Actually, I hope this is the near future for Axion. The company has had to bend every way possible to make all the various OEMs happy, but at the end of the day they hopefully will sell all the PbC batteries they can.
    7 May 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion should license that pic ASAP for their investor page---would so perfectly convey that "we feel your pain." ;)
    7 May 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    It gives a new dimension to the phrase "hung like a squirrel."
    7 May 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    And to that, off in some tree somewhere, our own JR says "damn straight"... ;)
    7 May 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    48: "we cause your pain."

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    ON the "parked NS999" deal. There are system stress tests that can be done on a switch commutated motors at stall. That is, the motor shaft held in place by an external force. In that situation, the motors look like a complex system of inductors, capacitors and resistors. Since none of the energy is leaving by the shaft, it tends to "bang around" in the motor.

     

    This allows the system to be tested at some worse case conditions in so far as switch stress and peak motor currents are concerned. If the motor controllers will stand stalled motor conditions at full torque they will most likely survive all other conditions, assuming they aren't allowed to overheat.

     

    Naturally this also gives the batteries a good peak current workout.

     

    The upshot; they could be doing actual real testing in the shed, even if not hacking and chopping on the visible parts of the locomotive.
    7 May 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    John, there is a manager somewhere in the chain at NS who has been warned that a vice president upstairs will be very PO if the NS999 fails in the operational yard tests. That manager is doing his best to ABSOLUTELY run any and all tests, twice, that might reveal a weak spot before anyone but his team can notice it.

     

    Unfortunately, you want to get those "real world operations" weak bits exposed as soon as possible. Except when it is not PC to do so. Sigh.
    7 May 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2110) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, you mean ship it and let the customer find the bugs?
    7 May 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall,

     

    This seems a pretty negative post. If we go another year and the only hope for sales is epower, that would put the company in a very difficult position. I have never seen epower as something that will provide important revenue (at least for many years), to me the importance of the announcement was another independent assessment that Axion has a good battery technology. That may be taken for granted here, but it is always good to have someone else verify it.

     

    The biggest problem for me is that Axion has no customers who have looked at the whole package (cost, performance, availability) and said that the PbC meets their needs. If I read your post correctly the only hope you see for that in the next year is epower. I had been hoping that we would see NS or BMW get to the point where they would choose Axion and we would know that something good was going to happen, even if that was still a while before we saw revenue.

     

    How do you think this will affect the fundraising? If your outlook is shared by the investors, I agree with Mr I that $10M for 50M shares would be great. By the way I don't see any lawsuits if the financing is not done. It only makes sense to sue entities with money. I also agree with Mr. I about the early investors, and hope that the management and BOD are looking at doing the best with where they are now and not taking on too much risk to try to justify some decision made in 2005.

     

    Thanks.
    7 May 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    It's dangerous to the value of your portfolio thinking something might happen in the storage company you are invested in over the next year.
    7 May 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    John
    " they surprised a team of about 20 Cummins engineers when they ran the truck on the Columbus test track a week ago."

     

    I was wondering what a bunch of Cummins ere doing there?
    Last I knew they were running John Deer for the engine.
    Vani is working With OEM's for an APU.
    Perhaps I've missed work with Cummins?
    7 May 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4012) | Send Message
     
    " By the way I don't see any lawsuits if the financing is not done. It only makes sense to sue entities with money."

     

    Generalizing your statement a bit, it only makes sense to sue entities that a) have something of value or b) can be compelled to effect changes conducive to one's interests.
    7 May 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Froggy77, ePower started with JD but Cummins is more aligned with the industry. It's hard enough finding a qualified service center for the big names in trucking (FL,Pete,KW,Int). There would be a lot of head scratching and scavenger hunting for green parts. Cummins could supply them with the engine and perhaps the generator and most of the parts they need. I am very much in favor of this alignment.

     

    Also, I am thinking Vani might have something to do with this. I think trucking was part of his purview when he was with Delco. I am also thinking he is the one who sparked Freightliner's interest and perhaps International (through FL/Bergstrum/NITE).

     

    I believe it will be the APU and S/S (low hanging fruit) in class 6-8 market, which could include all the trucks on the road today (new and used), that will be the business that takes us to profitability...

     

    http://bit.ly/YtrTkd
    http://bit.ly/TS0zXV
    8 May 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Tim,
    Appreciate your insights into the trucking industry.
    8 May 2013, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    silicon,

     

    I mean a shorter production-validation cycle, with bug fixes delivered in later stages. Unfortunately, such mistakes could prove fatal for any battery company's business
    8 May 2013, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Agreed, but I don't see lawsuits as a recourse for us (shareholders) if the financing is not done. Besides the gong concern language gives them the cover they need. Let's hope it does not come to that.

     

    thanks.
    8 May 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Tim: Great comments. I just want to add that Cummins has been very aggressive in their diesel program over the last many years, including physically smaller engines that put out good horsepower while improving emissions ... without the expensive after-treatment (urea) equipment IIRC?

     

    I think this switch, if that's what's happening, could be very beneficial to ePower, through to Axion. Let's also add in that would likely make some engineering talent and expertise available and, possibly, some minor factory tweaks to the engine and supporting (software?) systems that would enhance the ePower set up.

     

    Cummins would benefit from more than just increased engine sales of the engine to ePower, I think. It gives Cummins a direct knowledge of a battery-assisted set up that might be part of a "package" offered to OEMs somewhare down the road.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    8 May 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    All great comments but lets not get ahead of ourselves regarding Cummins. Perhaps ePower was just there to use their track.

     

    Of course, their interest may have been sparked, when their engineers were impressed.

     

    Does Commins have a 4 cylinder engine that could substitute for the John Deere ePower has been said to be using?

     

    But I certainly defer agree with Tim. Using a Cummins engine (perhaps the ISB 6 cylinder) would make a lot of sense for the reasons he suggested.
    8 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    To All
    I certainly didn't mean to make a complaint. (But thanks for the more in depth info, I either didn't know or wasn't sure of.)
    Cummins being there sounded like a big deal to me. It is possible they just happened to be there but really unlikely. I was very surprised that JP's casual mention of Cummins had not spurred a discussion when I first read it. I wondered if there was something going on I had forgotten.
    Then I got waylaid into other things.
    8 May 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    One more thing, Cummins already provides engines to the major OEM's which means they have an interface with the on board computer that manages the rest of the truck. Pluck an engine out of a modern truck without replacing the ECU and the there will be complaints and a lot of traffic on the buss.

     

    HTL, yes, Cummins has a full lineup of power products including power generation products (they are not CAT but a step in the right direct). Also, I suspect Cummins has many options that will meet/exceed the EPA requirements for Highway Tractors...
    8 May 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    ZBB might have an interesting presentation coming up:

     

    ZBB Energy will present "Overview of Control Techniques from the Gate Driver Level to the Transmission Level for Energy Storage Applications" at the Electricity Storage Association's (ESA) 23rd Annual Conference, May 20-22, 2013 at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.

     

    Would like to see an IEEE paper on their power control technology.
    6 May 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Care to be standing up during your next car accident?
    2014 Rinspeed microMAX

     

    http://bit.ly/107B8H7#!
    6 May 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    A pair of articles from Wards on automotive materials for the bodies.
    On materials for car bodies one claims Steel wins the other appears to be looking deeper and disagrees.

     

    In Race for Lighter Cars, Steel Wins
    http://bit.ly/107D4Q9

     

    In Race for Lighter Cars, Consumers and Environment Win
    http://bit.ly/ZCEwH2

     

    And some good news for MPG.

     

    54.5 MPG Surprisingly Close But Demands Electrification, Experts Say
    http://bit.ly/12jQ98Q

     

    Turbos, Blowers and Real-World Fuel Economy
    http://bit.ly/107Ds0Q

     

    Maybe good news for Axion
    U.S. Auto Makers Face Fuel-Economy Dilemma
    http://bit.ly/ZCF3st
    6 May 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    From the last link:

     

    By 2025, federal rule makers expect upwards of 49% of vehicles sold to feature some degree of electrification.

     

    Hakan Yilmaz, chief engineer-gasoline systems at parts supplier Bosch, says larger vehicles will need that technology most.

     

    “When you get to large pickups and luxury-segment vehicles, all will need some sort of solution with electrification,” Yilmaz says. “With conventional-engine solutions, it is a very hard target to reach.”

     

    Christopher Thomas, vice president and chief technical officer at BorgWarner, thinks microhybrids will play the largest role of the three.

     

    “Very mild hybrids are the ones you are going to see out there in the market, because the electrical architecture of the vehicle does not require the safety connectors and (electrical) grounds that add cost to the system,” he says.
    ------------------

     

    Sounds like that's our cue...now that Bosch has been floated as a possible strategic investor, my ears prick up whenever I hear them associated with micro-hybrid technology. Perhaps we could add Borg-Warner to the "possibles" list.
    6 May 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Curiously somewhat related to our interests, CNBC reports GM recalling 45K(?) Chevys, Buicks and ??? due to a possible fire hazard from the battery control module.

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    HTL, here's a link.

     

    GM Recall: 38,000 Hybrid Cars Due To Potential Fire Hazard

     

    http://cbsloc.al/11eYOgf
    7 May 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Thanks sir! Was busy when it came across.

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    it's a "modest" lithium battery ...

     

    http://nyti.ms/10laUCQ
    7 May 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Here's some added detail on the failure mode and the analysis that lead up to the recall. Tons more detail than I've ever seen them share in public.

     

    GM recalling certain eAssist models; up to 42,904 vehicles potentially affected by GCM issue

     

    http://bit.ly/12dCtv5
    7 May 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    Nice video presentation on YouTube from Don Runkle, CEO of EcoMotors, on meeting the mileage goals.

     

    http://bit.ly/YCoa5Z
    7 May 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    That is a good video, Rick.
    It provides a really good visual explanation for the modular OPOC engine, how it works, and what costs are involved.
    Not an unbiased presentation, but really fascinating to watch.
    Thanks
    7 May 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick, my first look at the OPOC engine - brilliant...
    7 May 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4455) | Send Message
     
    >Ricknplano ... Excellent video and really nice piece of engineering.
    7 May 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Thanks much for the video. Good stuff. Even the Hyundai jab.

     

    What a resume for that CTO. Brilliant leader for sure.

     

    Edit: Interesting comments on payback timing in the consumer durables sector. So automotive consumers want under 1 year payback but they are installing solar panels on their houses?
    7 May 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I suspect that consumers have different criteria on payback times for a long-lived asset, like a house which generally appreciates and add-ons add value, vs something that is retained a much shorter time and is, somewhat like, a consumable and depreciates rapidly.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I think you're probably correct in your thoughts. That being said less than a year payback on a vehicle that lasts 10+ years and is generally held at least 4+ years by the first owner is a pretty darn good use of capital.

     

    When you're expending capital only for efficiency the best payback should be the number one criteria. It's not like a solar panel has any other aux. benefits. Well unless it's also functioning as roofing. And you can bet irrespective of how you run the numbers, on grid solar is not yielding less than 1 year paybacks.
    7 May 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    05/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 13200, Vol 211234, AvTrSz: 5559
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2698, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2609
    # Buys, Shares: 16 101610, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2623
    # Sells, Shares: 22 109624, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2596,
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.08 (48.1% “buys”), DlyShts 10924 (5.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.96%

     

    Not a bad day. VWAP +1.8% and average trade size right in the middle of retail, and flattening as expected, with no excessively larger trades. Volume was a bit on the light side – not unexpected as we wait for the usual and for a certainty of direction in price. Volume is lower than the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 318K, 270K, 229K and 292K respectively.

     

    The buy:sell continues to recover into the normal ranges and the daily short sales has dropped back into the lower ranges seen recently, suggesting that one more “mini-ugly” selling through CDEL(?) is (almost?) out – we think there was 22K left (may not have been tied to the seller of the 76K the prior day?) and today we saw $0.27x20K that never moved. The buy averages continue the march towards more normal levels as well: the 10-day is up around the 50% mark and 25 and 50-day average should be inside 35% in another week or less, if current behavior continues.

     

    Of 18 bid changes I happened to catch, 11 were increases and 5 were decreases. Keep in mind some of these are just bids being masked and unmasked by activity with better bids coming and going. Of the 11 asks, 5 were increases and 5 were decreases. So the buyers seem to be getting more positive the last few days and the sellers are now starting to become more stingy.

     

    My original experimental inflection points are really trying to form a signal, but lack the volume, The five and ten-day calculations are quite near crossing above zero, but the lack of volume leaves the longer-term calculations in the dumps, with only the 25-day beginning to respond. The trend to “form up” is there, but needs volume along with the trend in price. My newer version, sensitive to some additional factors, is, again, more positive than the original. All periods are moving “the right direction” for now.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2214) | Send Message
     
    Let us take a moment to celebrate an anniversary:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thank you, iindelco, for the past year of 4,295 thoughtful, entertaining and educational comments.
    7 May 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    Congrats on the one year. Noticed a post above one of your linked posts that was made by Jon Springer. Haven't heard anything from Senhor S for a long time.
    7 May 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, Wow didn't realize it had been that long.

     

    Thanks to all likewise for the initial warm welcome, the many many educational posts and the laughs/smiles along the way. And most importantly, and I don't know why, thanks for not throwing me out! Maybe for my one year resolution I should make an attempt at being less verbose. , 4295, Ugh.

     

    Metro, Yes it has been awhile since Jon posted. I hope he's OK.
    7 May 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    What a difference a year makes. It's wonderful having you here to educate those who care (including me) instead of having you beat your head against a wall dealing with those who don't.
    7 May 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Add my thanks to your list Iindelco. As to verbose, I don't see that? ;-)

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4012) | Send Message
     
    I too did not realize it had been a year since you joined APCs, iind. Have greatly enjoyed the education and many a good laugh since. Thanks.
    7 May 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I don't know what you are talking about. IINDelco and I used to have lots of "fun" discussing Axion with OMY. Well, OK, we had lots of fun discussing Axion with Kirk. Now all you see over on Board X are random posts by Sockpuppet, who doesn't seem to know that you've moved back to the USA and are no longer living in Switzerland.
    7 May 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Tesla CEO Talking With Google About ‘Autopilot’ Systems
    By Alan Ohnsman - May 7, 2013 (Bloomberg)

     

    http://bloom.bg/12dBsDe

     

    “The problem with Google’s current approach is that the sensor system is too expensive,” Musk said. “It’s better to have an optical system, basically cameras with software that is able to figure out what’s going on just by looking at things.”
    7 May 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • engindoc
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Question for those of you who are good at reading financial statements and balance sheets:
    XIDE is trading as though it has declared bankruptcy; if it really does declare bankruptcy, is it likely that there will be any recovery for holders of common shares?
    7 May 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Exide is carrying about $750 million in notes including $60 million payable in September. If it goes into reorganization, things could get ugly for holders of the common stock.

     

    A couple years ago C&D Technologies had a similar balance sheet with lots of debt and lots of intangible assets. It was forced into a restructuring because an intangible asset impairment triggered a default. Until Exide's audit is competed and filed, there's no way to fairly assess the risk that it may follow a similar path.

     

    Many around here think the Exide notes are a safer bet at this point in time.
    7 May 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    When in doubt, follow the senior notes. If any secured portions have been impaired beyond its normal discount, then you can bet the common stock is worthless. This is because noteholders generally do a better job of asset valuation (as they put lots more money on the line with less liquidity to exit).

     

    That said the stock can still have value as an option. I'm waiting to trade it on bankruptcy day.
    7 May 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    “Best Yet” Battery Design to Stabilise Solar Power for Grid
    WRITTEN BY SANDRA HENDERSON | 05 MAY 2013

     

    ... flow battery research at Stanford.

     

    http://bit.ly/16ecfOo

     

    “In this new battery, the positive electrode is concentrated lithium polysulfide in organic solvent and the negative electrode is metallic lithium. The polysulfide solution is stored in a separated tank; when the battery needs to be charged or discharged, the solution would flow to the battery and electrochemical reactions happen. In downtime, the liquid positive electrode stays in the tank,” explains Yi Cui, an associate professor at Stanford and member of the Stanford Institute for Materials and Energy Sciences (SIMES). “This design is easy to scale up. The materials, such as lithium and sulphur and solvent, are all relatively cheap.”
    7 May 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Seems originally published April 24 in Science Daily

     

    http://bit.ly/12dJDPU

     

    See also:

     

    Researchers develop hybrid flow battery for renewable energy sources

     

    By Olivia Moore May 5, 2013

     

    http://bit.ly/13feI8m

     

    ????
    "According to Yang, the battery is also distinguished by its high-energy density and low cost, as the materials used to create it are relatively inexpensive. Though the battery has not yet been deployed in a real energy system, Zheng estimated that it will cost $45 per kilowatt hour—less than half of the price of competing flow batteries, which can cost upwards of $100 per kilowatt hour."
    7 May 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Paulo Santos on trading Testla

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 May 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Here's a little of what East Penn is up to with their new VRLA capacity.

     

    East Penn Releases a New Breakthrough Battery Solution for High Temperature Environments - The Deka(R) Fahrenheit(TM)

     

    http://on.wsj.com/11QrHdN
    7 May 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1347) | Send Message
     
    Another battery with the front terminal form factor. I really like this architecture and hope that we could produce electrodes in this size. It would really open up the storage market for us...
    7 May 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (759) | Send Message
     
    as their Dream fades...

     

    We pin our hopes on big trucks.
    7 May 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/15Aqvl1

     

    HTL - any thoughts on BPC Engineering as a catalyst for ZBB? They have been a good partner with CPST ...
    7 May 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: As I posted before, BPC will be *big* for ZBB ... if the applications are there, and I believe they are.

     

    BPC is a *very* competent firm with connections to the bank they started from, and to the political structure through that.

     

    I've no doubt that BPC will become, at least near-term, one of ZBB's best customers.

     

    Once they have the first installation done, they'll publish the results, bring folks around to touch and see it and the ball starts rolling.

     

    As they did with Capstone, they may even open a local customization shop that add features to the basic unit that adapts it to the unique environments seen over there.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    7 May 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2543) | Send Message
     
    I feel the same way. As I recall, ZBB mgt claims that they will be at breakeven on their current cost structure at approximately $28M per year in sales.

     

    As I also recall, BPC adds approximately $25M in sales per year to CPST's top line.
    7 May 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    I am not a Psychologist, however, thotdoc is. The APCs would be a great place to observe to write a book about group psychology under differing circumstances and the cycles the participants go through in a long term project.

     

    I have noticed that there are always people that take no news as bad news and others that work off the theory that you always hear bad news quickly. I use that theory with my grown kids. If I don't hear from them for a couple of months it means they are living their lives and working, just doing what needs to be done. If there is something bad or wrong going on the word spreads like wild fire and I hear about it within 24 hours.

     

    I may be wrong, but the no news means that they are going about taking care of business. No need for PR spin or hype (as many CEOs are prone to). Words are cheap and every action doesn't need a PR statement. Slogging through deep mud is only accomplished with persistence and is the only way I can relate to changing over from an R&D company to a commercial enterprise. Kind of like when you paint a car, 90% of a good paint job is doing proper prep or the paint will show every flaw of improper prep and end up being a waste of time and money.

     

    Oh well, just a few random thoughts.
    7 May 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3345) | Send Message
     
    Two words:

     

    "The Penske file"
    7 May 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Axion has always lived by the rule that you publicize accomplishment, not aspiration. It makes for a much quieter PR presence than some of us wish for from time to time, but promises that aren't made in haste can never disappoint.
    7 May 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Great VW commercial for SS. Kudos to the marketing folks.

     

    Your Volkswagen's Fuel-Saving Features Are Doing You no Favors

     

    http://bit.ly/10ED7i1
    7 May 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    My youngest was one of those babies. She was also a car snob who hated my old MR2 but loved her Mom's new Lexus.
    7 May 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    John, Girls on average just don't appreciate the wonderful sounds that come from a sportier engine. Could also be that the appreciation of the finer things starts at that age as well! ;)

     

    My eldest also had a month or two where a short drive worked wonders. Also had one other classic that made my wife and I laugh the few times it occurred. Frankie Valli would make him immediately shed tears. Initially thought it was only one song but it ended up being at least 2. No other artists he heard had this effect. LOL
    7 May 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    I hadn't thought about Amy and the car thing for years, until you brought a smile to my afternoon. Many thanks!
    7 May 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (759) | Send Message
     
    I Like It! I can see it now.
    http://bit.ly/Yt3B9V
    With PbC inside, the music continues.
    7 May 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    Just thought I'd throw this in http://bit.ly/16VcIVU Sure would like to see a few of these on the Hudson.
    7 May 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Extremely interesting that a second set of batteries have to be used to recharge the batteries on board. We outbuild our infrastructure, the CEO should say. We doubled our battery cost the CFO should say.
    We didn't consider a battery swap since they weigh 10 metric tons,the chief engineer should have said.
    But best of all it is uneconomical to run, the stockholders should be saying.

     

    Now maybe this company has found a way to build a battery this big , double up , and still make money. If they have my hat is off to them. BTW. Can't wait for that first 10 minute charge thing to happen.
    Color me skeptical on the economics and safety.
    7 May 2013, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    These first movers have my respect.
    7 May 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Ladies and gents please enjoy a refreshment of your choice in our hospitality area located just behind the earthen berm. If all goes as planned we will be boarding in 10 minutes. Out of respect for the captain and crew please refrain from the use of the flash function on your electronic devices until you receive the OK to board signal.
    -
    BTW Futurist, more on topic, TG mentioned fast recharge station opportunities in the last cc. I'm not suggesting for this app. but perhaps they have hooked up with the small company mentioned in the ALABC article posted in the recent past. I looked for info. on the company and found little.
    7 May 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    Axion is interested in island nation RFPs. High price electricity is the reason.

     

    example: Northern Marianas islands:
    http://bit.ly/11gVVvi
    "The CNMI’s power rate is 32 cents per kWh.

     

    For Young, “Until you get off oil, rates will stay high.”
    7 May 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D Lane, Interesting what these smaller communities have to go through as there is no one size fits all option. But the increase in oil prices over the last decade or so has forced action. Makes it hard to live on diesel forever.
    7 May 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants

     

    NEW CASTLE, Pa., May 8, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC QB: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 million principal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

     

    On the senior convertible notes of $9 million, Axion at closing received approximately $2.6 million in proceeds, net of placement fees and expenses, and will receive nine subsequent monthly tranches. The notes carry an 8% interest rate and have a nine-month amortization schedule with interest beginning at closing and can be paid, at the Company's option, in cash or in discounted registered shares. In addition, the investors are entitled to convert the note, or any portion of the note, into shares, utilizing the 105% 'premium to market' price determined at closing ($.26.4). The investors are also entitled to approximately 50% warrant coverage in 5-year warrants, at a 120% 'premium to market' price ($.30.2), that will not be exercisable for six months after the closing. Any funds received from warrant conversion to common stock would be incremental to the offering.

     

    On the subordinated unsecured convertible notes of $1 million, Axion at closing received $1.0 million in proceeds as there were no placement fees or expenses. The notes bear accruable interest at the rate of 8% and the principal and interest are both payable at the end of the term, or when certain thresholds have been met, in cash, or in shares, at the option of the lender.

     

    The full terms of the transaction have been filed in an 8-K dated May 8, 2013 and we encourage investors to read the filing for a better understanding of all terms of the funding.

     

    This press release does not and shall not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any of the securities, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration under the securities laws of any state or jurisdiction.
    8 May 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    My very quick read is that this is positive. As John says we need to look for the gotchas.
    8 May 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    At last, some money, enough for roughly 3 electrode lines I guess...
    8 May 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    okay, money in the bank, lets roll!
    8 May 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    The Maxim Group is a big step up the broker-dealer food chain from the small firms Axion has used in the past. While the placement was structured as debt instead of equity, the converts have a nine month fuse which makes them temporary rather than permanent.

     

    As soon as Axion files a registration statement for the underlying common, we can expect to see conversions taking place in stages. Hopefully Maxim's clients will be smarter sellers than we've seen in the past. The one thing I want to know is "how much of a discount will Axion take if it elects to pay installments in stock instead of cash?"

     

    It's great to see the insiders step up and take 10% of the deal on softer terms than the outside investors.

     

    The offering won't put immediate pressure on the stock price the debt won't be converted until Axion gets an SEC order of effectiveness for a registration statement it hasn't filed yet. That process will take from a week to ten days in the best of all possible worlds to a couple months if there's a full SEC staff review.

     

    When the Form 8-K is filed I'll do a deeper dive on the deal terms and see if there are any gotchas that concern me.
    8 May 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    John, Agree with your statement regarding management taking a stake. If I recall correctly some here have commented on this in the past as being a sign that would be viewed as positive.

     

    Question if you know. Would it be required or perhaps normal to have the names of the inside participants included in the SEC filing?
    8 May 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    The investors break down as follows:

     

    $2,250,000 - Capital Ventures International
    $2,250,000 - Hudson Bay Master Fund, Ltd.
    $2,250,000 - Parsoon Special Situation, Ltd.
    $1,500,000 - Hartz Capital Investments, LLC
    $750,000 - Empery Asset Master, Ltd

     

    The insider purchases break down as follows:

     

    Averill – $735,000
    Smith – $200,000
    Wainright – $25,000
    Granville, Trego, Baker and Dantam – $10,000 each.
    8 May 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    Does this mean there will be hot women at the annual meeting? :-)
    8 May 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9000) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks! You're the best.

     

    PS: I See you are joining the NYC conference digitally. Enjoy!
    8 May 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1767) | Send Message
     
    Nice to see that Averill still thinks enough of the potential of the company that he was willing to put another $735K of his money into Axion.
    8 May 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    Still, its secured debt. JP won't be very happy ;)

     

    I guess if they spend it wisely, and if we see a few PR that are sales related, AXPW has much room to appreciate. What strikes me though is the conversion strike for the convertible bond: 0.264, thats pretty low...
    8 May 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    While the securities are denominated as "debt," they're temporary instruments that were designed to give Axion the time it needs to register the underlying common stock. This is not the kind of permanent debt that gives me gas.
    8 May 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    What kind of "permanent" debt are you against?
    8 May 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    I classify any debt that's part of a company's long-term capital structure as permanent. Exide's notes payable and Tesla's DOE loans are good examples of permanent debt financing. Permanent debt will be repaid by either generating enough profits to pay it off or by rollover refinancing at some future date.

     

    Temporary debt is designed to convert to equity within a short period of time. The notes Axion just sold will, under normal circumstances, be fully converted to equity within a year. That's temporary debt for structural convenience.
    8 May 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    interesting, but couldn't the convertible notes be rolled over at a future date aswell? It will only be converted if the stock is doing well, correct? Aside from that there's no distinction between convertible and non-convertible notes?
    8 May 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Also you mentioned you saw irregular action on the daily SHO report, correct? I'm wondering if some of the note holders could have hedged their bets this way, what do you think?
    8 May 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    It's illegal for investors to short stock into the market before a placement closes. Besides, the pricing during the periods that struck me as odd was a good deal lower than the offering price.
    8 May 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    Okay I had no idea, makes sense though, thats good to hear. Congrats on the financing, I hope NS puts in a big buy order soon.
    8 May 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17482) | Send Message
     
    futurecartsla: the daily short report reflects, almost exclusively in this stock, normall market-maker shorting action necessary for them to do their job. Any "real" shorting would appear as big changes in long-term short interest here.

     

    http://bit.ly/uGVJsb

     

    Scroll down the page to the data box on the left and enter AXPW.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    it´s better than an offering at .20 or even lower. When the sales ramp us, the interest can be paid out of the cash flow so there will be no dilution. It´s a good thing to see the management pouring in 1 million!
    8 May 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    " so there will be no dilution" there are warrants ("The investors are also entitled to approximately 50% warrant coverage in 5-year warrants,") even if no commons issued.
    8 May 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • User550230
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    Does the 9 month amortization hint at anything? Not familiar enough to know if that's unusual. Does that imply that every month axion will be paying in shares?
    8 May 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    Management wanted to sell equity, but the company's small market capitalization and the structure of the SEC's shelf registration rules made that impossible. So what they did was sell short-fue debt instead with plans to convert the debt into stock over the next nine months.

     

    When the Form 8-K is filed I'll write a more detailed analysis but so far I'm pleased with the structure and tickled with the placement agent.
    8 May 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    News like this is where all of us have to take a hard look and not let our previous attraction to the company get in the way of clear judgment.

     

    I'll be interested in everyone's opinion.
    8 May 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (759) | Send Message
     
    Now if everything else doesn't keep taking "longer than you would imagine". A lucky break would be nice too, like ePower's latest build out working much better than anyone expected.
    8 May 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29753) | Send Message
     
    The Form 8-K and associated agreements have been filed with the SEC. They're pretty dense documents and will take a while to digest:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/16gLsRI
    8 May 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5857) | Send Message
     
    It's 259 pages long!
    8 May 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500)