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  • Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million 295 comments
    May 8, 2013 4:22 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

    On the senior convertible notes of $9 million, Axion at closing received approximately $2.6 million in proceeds, net of placement fees and expenses, and will receive nine subsequent monthly tranches. The notes carry an 8% interest rate and have a nine-month amortization schedule with interest beginning at closing and can be paid, at the Company's option, in cash or in discounted registered shares. In addition, the investors are entitled to convert the note, or any portion of the note, into shares, utilizing the 105% 'premium to market' price determined at closing ($.26.4). The investors are also entitled to approximately 50% warrant coverage in 5-year warrants, at a 120% 'premium to market' price ($.30.2), that will not be exercisable for six months after the closing. Any funds received from warrant conversion to common stock would be incremental to the offering.

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

    Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "Axion continued to make important strides in the fourth quarter, making 2012 a landmark year overall. Obviously our best year ever will be the first year when PbC revenue starts to show significant growth but it was a good step in that direction that we were able to recognize the first big PbC sale in the 4th quarter, to Norfolk Southern. This coincides with our first 10K filing without "development stage company" status. With our increase in sales, and more specifically sales of our core business product, we are now recognized as a commercial entity for filing purposes.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 5/3/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments:

    Over 50,000 comments!

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 5/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (295)
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  • Primero :)!!!
    8 May 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Me Two.

     

    Finally we have more info for the future.
    Now on to sales and the CC.
    8 May 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • First time I ever end up first in a concentrator !
    8 May 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • 4th
    8 May 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • Well we've got the 1,2,3,4 thing down now all we need is some catchy tunes for the Axionista song. Can't use this as we're a global army ! :)

     

    http://binged.it/10rD4My
    8 May 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: I think my suggestion sometime back is a good candidate,

     

    http://bit.ly/167KpjZ

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • >HTL-

     

    Wow! an animated Rorschach with singing faces-
    I like it!
    Cool!

     

    WT
    9 May 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, I remember that video and like it and the song. Thanks. ;)
    -
    Now we wait.......Seems like nobody likes .2525.

     

    http://bit.ly/YHJF5B
    9 May 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • I made the Gnarls Barkley song my iphone ringtone for when my wife calls.

     

    It always gets a few chuckles when she calls me in a meeting.
    9 May 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: Lots of singing that one in the shower when I was younger and had a decent voice!

     

    Good song all around.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • HTL-

     

    They had showers when you were young?

     

    Wow!
    9 May 2013, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • The tough part was living in Phoenix and waiting for the rain barrels to fill.
    9 May 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • JP: We tried to compensate by collecting dew from the leaves on the (few) trees in the morning. But with humidity 10%-15%, it took a month or two (capping the barrels in the day time to stop evaporation).

     

    Took a shower every three months or so, needed or not! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • I remember it well.
    10 May 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, When you skip showers that long it probably feels this good when you get one. One picture for a hot one and one for a cold one. ;))

     

    http://bit.ly/ZNDQyx
    10 May 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: LoL! That was good - forwarding to "she who *thinks* she must be obeyed"!

     

    TY sir!

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for opening a new insta, APH.
    8 May 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No problem at all. I will normally try to flip the APC's at or before 300 comments. Thanks to everyone for their participation and great dialogue.
    8 May 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Axion cap raise picked up at GCC. Still The PbC thingy.

     

    PbC battery maker Axion Power raises $10M

     

    http://bit.ly/13iyC2c
    8 May 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • TSLA blew out their earnings.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I was not going to play their earnings yet at 3:48EST I broke down and bought some puts. Way to be stupid son. Those are going to leave a mark.
    8 May 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • I bought some calls after the price collapsed from $62 to the mid-$50's, but sold them after the price recovered a bit. Doh!
    8 May 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla reported $11.2 million in income including:

     

    $10.7 million in nonrecurring gains from reversing derivative liability;
    $68.0 million in nonrecurring ZEV credits; and
    $6.4 million in nonrecurring foreign currency benefits.

     

    Musk will be guiding substantial losses for Q2 and Q3, with a modest income for Q4 (maybe).

     

    I wouldn't write those puts off yet, although the fanboys may be too busy cheering to hear what Musk actually says.
    8 May 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • JP & MrHolty: "I wouldn't write those puts off yet".

     

    I think the trick is to suss when the Muskovites lose control and it transfers to folks with spreadsheets.

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Good point HTL. But when you see headlines like this on Bloomberg ya gotta wonder. I didn't watch it so I don't know the content but during euphoria just the headlines can cause a stir.

     

    Is Tesla the Next Apple?

     

    http://bloom.bg/11kdrPh
    8 May 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • The after market hit $65 and is at $63.43 with nearly a milion shares traded.
    The GM without ZEV (which they say will be zero by the end of the year.) is %5 and the DOE will be another 2%. I think.

     

    They state that reservations are coming in at a rate higher that 20k a year. Which I considered their challenge for the Q.
    It seems the only thing they can't do yet is make money at it.
    8 May 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... It still stings. My $52.50 & $55.00 puts are down nearly $2.00 a share (last I looked and I think I'm worse now) but playing the calls has put me up $0.23. I really can't see "The Automaker That Can't Be Named" keeping this thing up all the way into September.
    8 May 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Big short squeeze at the moment. Really fun to watch this thing trade, from the sidelines. Just traded > $66. Gonna be fun to see this thing fly around tomorrow, too. Think I might pop some popcorn, grab a soda and lean the chair back. WIll we retrace all the way back down. or hit $70+?
    8 May 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Just broke thru $68. And then, a minute later, $69. Then, right after that, $69.90. Then it just hit $72.00! Guess that answers the $70+ question, if not the retrace question, lol. Congrats to the longs.

     

    This looks like an epic short squeeze in the making, at least so far.
    8 May 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • >Mr Investor ... I can hardly wait to see my Calls come tomorrow morning. These cult followers might be paying me very well to go short ... with a couple of hedges. I hope it stays above $70 long enough to sell some Leap Calls. This thing is turning into an ATM.
    8 May 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, hope you do really well tomorrow. If these high prices hold into the options session, many a fortune will be made. Might even see some folks roll some profits into buying an S. Wouldn't THAT be something.
    8 May 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • >Mr Investor ... EM is one "ballsy" guy. His company SolarCity is suing the government for underpaying & NOT giving them the $325M they wanted.

     

    http://bit.ly/10rLTpD

     

    If it holds I'm guessing that I will wind up 100% above my Put investment. I'm planning on selling some $30 Calls Jan 14 for a minimum of 150% of my current spread. I'll hold Sept 13 Puts for free with 100% profit built in ... unless these crazy people take it to somewhere around $100. I just wish I had the chutzpah of put large money into this but I just can't because I'm just learning how this Options thing works and this stock is just plain fun.
    8 May 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I must admit that the only options trading I've ever done was simple short-dated long positions in calls and puts. Too hard for me to predict specific trading ranges during certain time periods. For example, I can easily envision TSLA being above $100 sometime soon, with all the goofy dreamers' money, the huge short percentage, the entering of new mkts, promotion by Musk, etc. Silly valuation metrics, yes, but those get overlooked, in the short and even medium run, in hype bubbles.

     

    OT: I've completely forgotten the options strategies I had to learn for the Series 7 exam. Funny, when I asked the teacher in the prep course why options questions account for 20% of the exam, when they represent only a tiny fraction of that to the typical broker's practice, the guy said it's because the exam company is partially owned by an options organization. Jeez. Just another reason why I went the Advisor, not the broker, route.
    8 May 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like a nice setup for a Straddle.
    8 May 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • >Windwood Trader ... If things work like my spreadsheet says it might I'll pocketed all my Call positions tomorrow and just let my $0.00 investment ride until Sept.. In my book it's not bad for less than 2 weeks of misreading the crazy.

     

    Now I've got to figure out how to set up a Straddle so I'm not hanging out there more than 20% of my initial investment in the Puts. I'm not quite sure how to get the job done and I've got to make some sort of guess about just how crazy this short squeeze might get. It's really tough when I don't have a clue what I'm doing. If I can't figure it out tonight I'll sit on my hands and watch.
    8 May 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich. Wow, so you actually were betting that it would go up? That took some balls. I had thought about shorting it in the 30's but sure glad I didn't.
    9 May 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • DRich-

     

    Re: Straddles on TSLA-

     

    From what I see the stock would have to move at least $20 to guarantee a gain- Less of course if you nimbly close out the probable loser along the way. The Calls/Puts are limited in the "in/at the money" range right now.

     

    No game for those with blood pressure issues or prone to fainting spells.

     

    Good luck!

     

    Windwood Trader
    9 May 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • >nogoodslacker ... Of course I thought it would go up. Have you read some of the Chat? The up is more than I thought ... by a mile, but I've recovered all of my short position investment and a little bit more by banking on the crazy.

     

    The part that baffles me is how to sell what I see as premium to these eager beavers without hanging myself out there too far. So far I don't like the risk so I'll keep playing the binary Put/Call long dated (in case the fever last longer than anticipated) with short holding time frame in mind. I'm just learning this type of trading so I'm a little skittish.
    9 May 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • For those who haven't found this TSLA-related article yet:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    D
    9 May 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • So, what grade does the placement deserve?
    8 May 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • D from me
    8 May 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jpau: does the market tell us? My intra-day VWAP the last week or so, including today ...

     

    $0.2585, $0.2492, $0.2563, $0.2609, $0.2588 and $0.2513

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: And based on daily short sales of 539,744, 46.81% of day's volume, lots of folks made snap decisions.
    8 May 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, yes, so far, and it's a C or C-. Could have been better, but could have been worse. Of course, that's only after one day's voting.

     

    Looking forward to the cc next Thursday morning. Hope some folks have the stones to ask the hard questions that have needed answering for awhile now.

     

    WIll be interesting to hear if the new investors lob in some softball Q's. I know I would if I were them. You know, like, "Tom, tell us about some of the exciting opportunities you're working on", vs "Granville, tell us why you haven't sold any PCs."
    8 May 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • I give it a C+
    8 May 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Jpau, I'll give my grade but first I'd encourage anyone choosing to do so to add a little reasoning to the letter grade so we can get more value from the exercise.

     

    I'd give it somewhere between a C+ and a B. The C plus because I think Axion did a pretty good job under the circumstances with some of the board and officers throwing into the pot to assist in the effort. Remember C is average. It could actually be higher, and I think it, is because I like the way the raise has been spread over time which allows the market to offer some upside for the existing shareholders. Compared to the last raise, given where we were trading, I think the first day ended far better than it would have without some level of improved structure to the offer. I'll caution that this is only day one and we'll have to better judge once the dust settles.
    8 May 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • I'd give them a B. It's obviously not an A for strategic investor, but it's not bad considering the position Axion is in. They avoided a large discount to market, took installments to give time for catalysts, upgraded their client base, and even had founders put up money. Let's be real here, if Axion had never mentioned finding a strategic investor we'd be praising this deal on how much better it is than last year's.

     

    Their new investment banker did a good job at finding them the right solution.
    8 May 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    I mostly agree but the lateness of the raise has me between a B- and C+.
    8 May 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • I posted my more detailed comments on the financing at the tail end of APC 233. At least it's now out of the way, but those suggesting that the stock was depressed because of the lack of financing now need to come up with another explanation. Like the fact that there have been no announced sales almost five months after the very bullish conference call.
    8 May 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Way to early to give a grade, and will only be able to give one with hindsight. It would have been an A+ with a large strategic investor, but never was really counting on that.

     

    With relation to immediate sales, it seems that whoever is going to use the PbC must go through a lengthy testing and validation process. It isn't like selling cute pet rocks, so don''t think we can criticize the sales effort without knowing more about what is happening with sales - which is the topic of the next paragraph.

     

    However, I would like TG to provide more details on sales without going into details, i.e. how many new companies have begun testing the PbC during the last 12 months, how many have dropped out, approximate maturity dates on some of those RFP's, if any of the RFP's have been lost and why, what are the comments about the PbC that firms testing it have made, both positive and negative.

     

    Just think we have been sold short on information, and whenever I have been given too little information because someone thinks I don't need to know it, it is seldom positive.

     

    And though I rarely agree with Johhny rambo, I would have to agree that a senior manager putting in only $10,000 is not putting your money where your mouth is.
    9 May 2013, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • And here is another one for a laugh:

     

    http://bit.ly/10rLTpD

     

    They say don't bite the hand that feeds you, but someone is doing exactly that!!
    8 May 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • If Averill had put in 10k and Granville Dantam etc 735k that would be a very positive sign
    The fact it was the other way around simply portrays an inherent weakness in this management team.
    Averill did not receive a bonus and between him and Smith take 93% of the stake, you would be hard put to turn that into a positive for our management team !

     

    Nothing Granville has done here is impressive !
    8 May 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • I think this capital raise was much more expensive than it would have been had some PbC sales made the news. And, I believe it was a last hooray for Granville & Co. if PbC sales in the multiple hundreds per month don't appear soon. That said, I assign the financing a grade of B for providing needed capital in a capital market environment confronting the range and depth of commercial, regulatory, and government fiscal policy uncertainties prevailing over the past nine months or so.
    8 May 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • I suppose that after all is said and done I am disappointed. I can appreciate that it took a lot of time to put this deal together so I won't bitch about that. There just isn't any new dynamic in the business equation I can see such as a manufacturing or strategic partner.

     

    I've heard the term it is "all up to the battery" several times over the past three years. Bull hockey IMHO. It is all up to someone to SELL the battery. If it could sell itself it has had plenty of time to do it. Yes, with some markets it requires years of validation testing. Years of testing and little sales produces a tepid stock price.

     

    On to the next conference call I hope the new investors crowd the conference line. I'm tired of factoids. I want significant business development information. Timelines and goals. Milestones. Something a lot more definitive than "and there is no slowdown in sight." You can probably stay alive on pablum but you will never put any meat on the bones of the stock price with a steady diet of that gruel.
    8 May 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • A manufacturing or strategic partner simply wasn't in the cards. We'd need a major design win for that, and both auto and rail are premature. This time around next year maybe...

     

    But I agree with you are the second point. TG had better explain who and how much we are selling to, instead of more fluff words.
    9 May 2013, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Agree with you bang. Now that the financing is out the door, time to start showing numbers!
    9 May 2013, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone!!

     

    Very hard day, I read a lot but I've also understood very little.

     

    Good night-Carlos
    8 May 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • A very interesting question as to grading the financing.

     

    An "A grade" if a strategic partner had plunked down money for 20% of the company at market price.

     

    A "B grade" if any investor had agreed to fund 10 Million at current prices.

     

    A "C grade" to extract interest payments while awaiting stock to cover the investment.
    A "C+ grade for getting the interest but making Axion major investors and execs pony up a little cash to prove they mean what they say.

     

    A "D grade if Axion stock had taken a haircut.

     

    A "F grade" if financing had failed.
    8 May 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • In my mind, Axion stock was offered at a haircut. 8% interest AND a conversion price lower than the recent trading range of AXPW. Huge disappointment.
    8 May 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Not a great day in my opinion.
    Whether or not we can keep the lights on for another couple of years without any significant sales is the big question. Unfortunately, none of our prospects are in a hurry. That's why we got the deal we got today.
    9 May 2013, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • 8 % interest from a hard lender is a great deal. For example: Property hard lenders demand 10% to 14% on safe lending deals: one year loan on 50% of property value.

     

    On top of it, you are not paying it back with cash. Therefore, the hard lender is taking a risk with AXPW. For the lenders to recoup their money/interest, they have to sell their stocks above .26.

     

    For the lenders to make some real money off their investments, the stock need to go much higher than .30. Therefore, the incentive of this deal is to push the investors to let the stock price to go high.

     

    In conclusion, I think the company made a decent deal. (Before this deal, there were so much fear that the deal will push the stock to .15 or .20. We should be happy that it did not happen.)
    9 May 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • ENERDEL DEBUTS PPA 300-689 VIGOR+ ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM (ESS) FOR USE IN ALLISON NiMH-BASED HYBRID BUSES

     

    EnerDel ESS Boasts Three Times Longer Life, Lower Mass, and Higher Capacity providing Better Fuel Efficiency and Performance than Existing System

     

    Submitted on 05/07/13, 04:02 PM

     

    INDIANAPOLIS – (May 7, 2013) – EnerDel, Inc., a leader in lithium-ion energy storage systems, today announced the availability of its new PPA 300-689 Vigor+ Energy Storage System (ESS). As part of EnerDel's Aftermarket and Service business strategy, the ESS is designed as a retrofit to replace the nickel metal hydride (NiMH) based energy storage system currently used in Allison hybrid buses. The system is also ideal for those interested in designing in the performance benefits of lithium-ion technology from the onset.

     

    http://bit.ly/12XOcwy
    8 May 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • Very interesting WTB

     

    I wish them well but I am skeptical. Those NiMH batteries are a proven commodity--same as in the Prius.
    9 May 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Compare ZBB's recent capital raise to ours. Look at their stock price since the offering. ZBB has sales and is shipping product. ZBB is also participating at the Roth & Agrion conferences. Most of the time the investment firms make their money on the arbitrage spread and sell into news. I hope they are long term holders, but I am not counting on it.
    So we can expect the same with AXPW. IMO.

     

    Here is the link to read how theirs is structured. It would also pay to see their press releases to highlight their progress.

     

    http://bit.ly/WtnhJN
    9 May 2013, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • Here is the link to AXPW releases:
    http://bit.ly/TPds5P

     

    notice any difference?
    9 May 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Not that ZBB is doing that much better in price currently, but it made another sale today:

     

    http://bit.ly/1749cbN

     

    They also have a decent set of institutional holders:

     

    http://bit.ly/146vaGO
    9 May 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • I am also hoping that TG is aware that the lack of information is frustrating to all shareholders. He might be gun shy after being a little verbose in the past. But that does not mean the shareholders don't deserve information. I would like JP to comment on the type of information TG can give. I'm sure it would make it far easier on the conference call to hone in on the areas TG can talk about.

     

    A statement that financing is complete and things are moving forward will certainly not suffice to keep me as a strong supporter.

     

    Actually, a simple explanation of why Axion has not met the goals laid out by TG would help. I think we are a savvy enough investors to understand business reasons for changing business landscapes.
    9 May 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, AXPW was no where near prime time for the last 3 years, much less in position to meet the lofty goals that either TG mentioned or that we as axionistas assigned. This is where my beef lies. In reality they are closer, but still not there.
    Every capital raise is just more dilution to us and further limits the upside. The financiers know the 200 million shares isn't enough to put them over the hump, so now we are going to have to vote in 300 million shares. That's a 50% increase in shares outstanding. So now you can say to be a $1 Billion mkt. cap the price is $3.33, To be $300 million it is $1/share
    9 May 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • You are jumping a little far on the 300M shares outstanding. This raise put out less than 50M and they have a good 15-18month runway to get to breakeven. The 300M is a cushion nothing more, in 15months if their revenue/sales have not picked up we can start talking about another 50M being outstanding which would just put us just over 200 million outstanding.
    9 May 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • I think AXPW should find a way to fix its market cap. With less than 30 Million market cap, every equity offering of 10M size is like hell. And TG really should find a way to talk more. Without enough information, how could outside investors have enough confidence to invest in this company given last three years performance?
    9 May 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Bug,

     

    TG probably can't talk more because so far there is nothing significant to report. Whatever is in progress, is already known, the rest requires more patience!
    9 May 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Jak, that's what we said when they approved 200 M, we're not far from it and still far away from mass commercial production.
    9 May 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • 05/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up tonight sometime).
    # Trds: 265, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 1143057, AvTrSz: 4313
    Min. Pr: 0.2300, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2513
    # Buys, Shares: 178 667277, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2504
    # Sells, Shares: 88 460780, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2523
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2575
    Buy:Sell 1.45:1 (58.4% “buys”), DlyShts 539744 (47.22%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 114.65%

     

    Rough day trying to keep up. Add in Etrade duplication of data, ADVFN dropping data, me trying to re-construct it all ...

     

    Just note the trade sizes and lower VWAP with reasonably balanced buy:sell. Mixed trader and investor reactions for sure.

     

    No further comment for now. I'll do it tonight.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Note short sales too - lots of unusual MMs in today accounts for it I think.
    9 May 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • I'm listening to the Agrion webcast and Vani just introduced himself as part of the roundtable. So he's definitely there along with another Axion marketing hand.
    9 May 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John, I'm glad he made it in spite of all the confusion.

     

    Nice to know you're holographically attending as well.
    9 May 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • It's pretty boring so far. So I'm not sure how long I'll last.
    9 May 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry to hear that. I watched a video on YouTube of a recent meeting sponsored by them on storage in NYC and it was pretty good.
    9 May 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Can you guys provide a link to the Agrion conference call? thanks...
    9 May 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • John-

     

    Did you have any trouble. I was booted twice and gave up.
    9 May 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • I stayed connected for the whole thing, but had several pauses while the system re-buffered. On balance it wasn't terribly useful.
    9 May 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tried my hand at TSLA puts. I think profit taking, digestion of what Musk really said, and the fear of a share offering will weigh down price today. Bought Jun 62.50 puts for a 1-2 day trade.

     

    I'm pretty novice at options so would welcome any thoughts on this trade. All I can say is, I would have just sold shares short if I could.
    9 May 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • oRanma, be careful, Musk has beat every bear scenario so far, they first said he couldn't produce it, then he could not sell 20,000 cars/yr, they profit - the credits made it, but it is just a good CEO who seen opportunity and took advantage of it.

     

    Not to mention someone just raised the price target to over $90

     

    The one sleeper with TSLA could be the partnership with Toyota & Daimler...if they were to use TSLA power train and purchase these components, then TSLA would sorta be the standard in auto like some OEM's are in tech
    9 May 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • >Ranma ... I too am a novice at this options trading so I can't really be a lot of help. My only concern with your trade is it is so close and not hedged. I worry that the fever could last until deep into the 2nd Quarter and reality not set in until the 3rd Quarter sometime. I shorted what I thought was exuberance longer term but bought Calls to offset what I felt was irrational near. So far so good but it is more likely dumb luck.
    9 May 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • TSLA is also the first car to score 99/100 in the Consumer Report:

     

    8:43 AM The Tesla Motors (TSLA) Model S is the first car to achieve a score as high as 99 out of 100 in detailed testing from Consumer Reports since 2007. The publication bought a car anonymously in January and went through the Tesla experience from start to finish with hardly any hitches while being thoroughly impressed by performance (like a "Porsche") and energy efficiency. TSLA +23.3% premarket as the good news keeps piling in. [Consumer, On the Move] 4 Comments
    9 May 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, looks like my timing wasn't great. This was my first look at TSLA so I don't know how the stock reacts. I still think it should falter over the next couple days. Even the mighty Apple would fall after a blowout quarter (that they used to get).
    9 May 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • thats true, and there will be a time to short it. I just don't know when that is.
    To me it's like "don't fight the fed", and TSLA is "don't fight the short squeeze"

     

    Good Luck, hope u hit a home run
    9 May 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Exide has been a hoot the last few days. Just closed my last position. I must admit trying to come anywhere near catching the highs and lows is like trying to figure out Lindsay Lohan. They're both crazy but fun to watch.

     

    I should have played HTL's song while I had open positions on XIDE.
    9 May 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Well, that burned. Looking for a chance to retry.
    9 May 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Hey it's a trade not an investment. Besides, I love stepping over quarters to pick up nickles. ;)

     

    Edit: Oop's thought you were talking about my XIDE exit too soon! lol
    9 May 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, I don't mind the loss so much as that I timed it so poorly. I got done with trading one stock and immediately jumped into another. It was a rookie mistake. If I had only paused and checked the tape, I would have avoided some pain. Oh well, I might have caught near the top for the day this time. Reloaded puts with TSLA in the 73s. If TSLA falls by EOD I'll sell, if not tomorrow morning.
    9 May 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, Buena suerte!
    9 May 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Saved by the end of day dumping. Good sign for tomorrow. It was a bit stressful to sweat it out, but I'd glad my feel for things is still good. I just can't imagine the bulk of longs not being tempted to dump the overboughtness. Today was probably some traders trying to piggyback and squeeze some shorts, but tomorrow they won't get the wave of buyer support.
    9 May 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • >Ranma ... This is the most amazing price action I've ever participated in. Today I cashed in my Calls for the 2nd time in a week. Tomorrow I'll assess my Put positions which are paid for and a little more. It may not be over but this looked like gasping for air if not capitulation.
    9 May 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Congrats DRich. May our AXPW experience provide a better price action though.

     

    When any big design win news comes, it could be violent. For hopes and dreams:

     

    http://yhoo.it/12jGKwU;range=5d
    9 May 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • >LT-

     

    "don't fight the fed", and TSLA is "don't fight the short squeeze"

     

    You got that right, LT!

     

    Windwood Trader
    9 May 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    Many of the Musketeers don't even seem to read the financials at all. Expecting the price to go down on the realization that the company needs money or that they are late in filing or any other event that normally sends the stock down. Has had Zero effect.
    You can look up the Sept' raise and the late 10 K filing. Such as not telling them how many reservations they have.
    (That was the news I expected would send the stock down.)
    That they don't know something has no apparent effect.

     

    I too am New at options, I recommend always having a long to offset any short.
    If you check FSLR it dropped as the market did in 08 then mostly held that price until July 2011. In the spring of 2009 I ran across an article that explained the Chinese glut in PV that was coming. Yet with no Dividends Splits etc the Stock stayed around $100- $150 for over 2 years finally dropping to near $10 in the summer 2012. (With the implementation of anti-dumping duties against China First Solar is recovering. ) Timing the end of irrational prices is unlikely.
    Even a 2 year short could have expired worthless.
    9 May 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, talk about price action---a few times I bought some options of NFLX. Be careful, though, rapid action can be very addicting, and thus, dangerous. The only people I know who didn't lose their shirt in options, eventually, are guys who used to be on the CBOE exchange floor. Superior info, and all. They'd kinda laugh that shark laugh when retail orders came in.
    9 May 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • I know that options are far more complicated to value and trade, and you suffer from liquidity and the ridiculous 5 to 10 cent increment for orders. Having lost my shirt with them before, I avoid them except when there is a rare case where it's the only way to play short.

     

    If I ever graduate to playing options, I'd don't if I'd do it without a computerized system to tell me the odds. Until then, I think I'm getting the hang of reading the chart and watching the tape on a day to day basis.
    9 May 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma & You options traders - always remember someone took the other side of the trade, it's not always a small investor. The big boyz know how much retail is out there and they can & do manipulate prices until an expiration date if the trade is one sided.
    9 May 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • That is a good point. I had the taste of that once with OpenTable (OPEN). I bought a load of puts, and the stock incredibly rallied despite a lot of negative news. On the day or two before expiration, I suffered another losing trade and decided to salvage what I had left in the puts. The next day OPEN crashed and my puts would have been a 10 bagger.
    9 May 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • $800 million Toxic Lead fight in Peru
    Coup d’Etat to Trade Seen in Billionaire Toxic Lead Fight

     

    http://bloom.bg/12gWORf
    9 May 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Proterra, Altair showcase electric bus, battery tech in Ind.

     

    http://bit.ly/12hfSPk
    9 May 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Pretty impressive, though no mention of costs:

     

    "The bus can run a two-and-a-half-hour bus route after a single five- to 10-minute rapid charge, and the batteries have an expected lifespan that would require only one battery replacement during the 12 year expected life of a transit bus. Altairnano's solution is the best we have found in the industry for fast charging of buses."
    10 May 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • I see we are back to being the TSLA concentrator.
    9 May 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • >nogoodslacker ... Well, the price of Pb is coming down as are the available stockpiles

     

    http://bit.ly/wGViky

     

    JCI (+8.5%) & Enersys (+10%) are both doing well this month.
    9 May 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • TSLA will trade over $2 billion today !
    AXPW might hit $50k today !

     

    Do you think Musk hides behind NDA and strategic partnership, testing excuses when promoting his company.
    TG needs to take his elevator negotiating to the parking level and exit forthwith, while we still may have a chance !
    9 May 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Musk is selling to individuals. Axion is selling to large battery users and OEMs who follow an engineering process instead of a dream. I'd love to see more PR but I've lived in the NDA barrel where making Johnny happy can ruin multi-million dollar relationships that were years in the making.

     

    Given a choice between pissing Johnny off and getting the business when the process is finished and making Johnny happy today by torching tomorrow, I'll go with the future every time and tell Johnny to sell his Axion stock and buy Tesla instead.
    9 May 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • What baffles me is the fact that the fanboys understands yet that Q1 earnings were about selling everything, from stock to EV credits, BUT cars at a profit. But again, anyone who spends a minute reading the balance sheet would see it instantly.

     

    I give it to them that IF (a big big IF) demand starts ramping up significantly AND tesla gets a grip on its manufacturing process, then there is ground to justify the current valuation, but the bar is already set very very high already!

     

    The fact that TSLA is already touted as the next Apple tells me exactly that it is NOT, from a contrarian point of view :)
    9 May 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Fair comment John, of course you are assuming there is a future - that's the tricky bit !

     

    The boy has loudly cried Wolf, and it appears nobody in the wilderness is listening to his cries of help.
    9 May 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny,

     

    A business model that holds the case in the economic sense, and barring serious mistakes or unforeseen events, has a reasonable chance of surviving and thriving.

     

    Why do you think TSLA came through with a "financing plan"? For me, such a plan masks desperation and without it, very few would be willing to part +60k of their dollars for a car, especially in these times.
    An Ipod back in 2001 was less than 1000 dollars, so the economics of the products were much more compelling, and thats what enticed people to try. Apple never came out and personally guaranteed that they would pay you 500 dollars to buy back your ipod if you wanted after 3 years. Two very different dynamics between the two companies.

     

    Axion's products already have a market. It has been there for more than 100 years, it is established and running just fine. For customers to try a new technology and take the risk of disrupting their business and all related consequences, it takes time, testing and more testing to make sure they are substituting one technology with something much better. In the short term, the lack of sales is frustrating for all Axion holders because you can't rush a process that is beyond your control, but in the long term I don't see any reason for Axion to disappear unless the testing and validation process goe on forever, which is unlikely.
    9 May 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • I'm in regular contact with ePower, a customer that's absolutely delighted with the PbC and convinced that nothing else will satisfy it's needs at an acceptable price point. Oddly enough, ePower won't be averse to PR going forward because like Axion they're hungry for public profile too.

     

    When ePower tells me about the big guns Axion has already brought to their party I can only smile at the idea that Axion's existing relationships are strong enough that it can say "you've got to come see this ePower truck for yourself."

     

    There is no question that several critically important relationships exist and are going forward at a pace dictated by the customers' engineers. The work is expensive enough and it's been going on long enough that the potential for failure is remote.

     

    I bought my ticket to this extravaganza and I'll be damned if I'm going to leave the theatre before the credits roll or somebody offers a crazy price for my seat.
    9 May 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • OT
    A short clip to get everyone seated before the movie starts. Pre-movie drivel.

     

    http://bit.ly/12jtad5
    9 May 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • "I bought my ticket to this extravaganza and I'll be damned if I'm going to leave the theatre before the credits roll or somebody offers a crazy price for my seat."

     

    That's why I hang around ...

     

    Plus, I like this concentrator.
    9 May 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • "When ePower tells me about the big guns Axion has already brought to their party I can only smile at the idea that Axion's existing relationships are strong enough that it can say "you've got to come see this ePower truck for yourself.""

     

    Now that is an interesting comment, JP, particularly in light of your earlier report of Cummins' engineers' reaction to ePower truck on the Cummins test track where the truck was taken to Cummins.
    9 May 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Could you direct me to that report as I had missed it?

     

    Thanks
    9 May 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • "Could you direct me to that report as I had missed it?"

     

    RBrun ... The "report" I mentioned was a comment JP made within the past couple of days (likely on APC 233 or APC 232) noting apparent surprise and heightened interest of a group of Cummins engineers following visit by an ePower truck at a Cummins test track. Substance of the report is pretty well covered in this comment.
    9 May 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun
    Here is the entire comment.

     

    "Sometimes the blistering progress at NS leaves me feeling a bit like this

     

    http://bit.ly/11PPLxd

     

    Mercifully I get the occasional report that ePower is doing very well and they surprised a team of about 20 Cummins engineers when they ran the truck on the Columbus test track a week ago. "

     

    Here is the link.
    Most of the comments on Cummins are a ways down.
    JP has not until now has not responded to the speculation so I think it's something he can't talk much about yet.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 May 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv,

     

    Thanks, I appreciate it.
    9 May 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Froggy> It's not so much that I can't talk much as that I don't know much. ePower's primary interest is a small Cummins 6-cylinder engine and generator combination that they think will offer better performance and maintenance than their John Deere four banger.

     

    I suspect that a deeper technical relationship with Cummins may develop in the future, but these projects are always one step at a time. The meeting was apparently set up by Vani and attended by delegations from all three companies.
    9 May 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Wow I did not realize Cummins is a Fortune 500 company. I thought it was a minnow like ePower. Cummins would be a lead larger than the size of Norfolk Southern!
    9 May 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks JP
    OY back to the garage with it.
    Well maybe the next one will have the Cummins.
    Might as well compare them.

     

    It's very good that they were impressed. :-)
    9 May 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Cat, Cummins, Detroit (bought by Daimler as well as Freightliner bought by them also) and Navistar/International are the large engine companies. Tim, how big would you rate Volvo?
    9 May 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • "how big would you rate Volvo?" They are definitely a player in trucking and heavy equipment. My first truck was a 780 and it was a nice piece of equipment...
    9 May 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • John, the three companies (meaning including Axion) were Axion + ePower + Cummins? Or was Deere there too which equals 3 not counting Axion?
    9 May 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • JP,
    Thanks for that info. Nice to hear about Vani´s efforts - makes me wonder if Cummins is already testing PbC in some capacity. Vani made the APU contact as well, so will give him credit for that too. Just more testing before this baby gets off the ground. Sigh.

     

    As Cummins engineers already know all about the performance of their own product, I'm hoping what they find most intriguing about the ePower set-up is the battery(s). Good we had reps there to promote it.
    10 May 2013, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • I have not heard that Deere was in attendance.
    10 May 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Hi everyone!!

     

    Another who might be interested is Caterpillar, they manufacture motors and generators. In my view Cat. has much to do with AXION-PbC.

     

    Have a good day-Carlos
    10 May 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • >ePower's primary interest is a small Cummins 6-cylinder engine and >generator combination that they think will offer better performance and >maintenance than their John Deere four banger.

     

    I think thats encouraging news, just because other heavy hybrids I know of use the Cummins 6 cylinder engine called the ISB. Its a ubiquitous powerplant and highly regarded.

     

    I know little about engines but on the face of it switching to a 6 cylinder from 4 would decrease fuel economy but increase power.
    10 May 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane: "... switching to a 6 cylinder from 4 would decrease fuel economy but increase power"

     

    Not necessarily. If the torque and power curve of the 6 is better suited to the loads, allowing it to run more often in it's sweet spot, economy could be better. For those times when more power is needed, economy would drop for the interval, of course. The programming may be different for the engines too. That could make the larger engine a tad better on the specific fuel consumption per horsepower.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... ePower's system is a lot of fun to speculate about. We were sitting around yesterday wondering about the constant efficiency powerband operation of the motor. Our speculation was whether in Class 6 & 7 trucks (dump trucks in particular) could operated a Start/Stop system. Here in Dallas there are a lot of these vehicles in city traffic and in freeway Rush Hours.

     

    Could Axion's battery pack provide the acceleration power required to bring the motor back to the band? Then to figure whether spin-up & high-end of the band operation combined with/without regen braking could allow battery recovery over the course of maybe a mile between lights often enough to make a difference? It is a very intriguing duty cycle to think what might be possible.

     

    Hope we see some on the road Class 8 news this coming summer or fall.
    10 May 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • HTL and DRich, I appreciate your comments.
    10 May 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Linked is some info on the percentages owned by each engine maker in class 8 trucks. If you scroll down there is a nice pie chart.
    CMI is Cummins.

     

    http://bit.ly/17ahkaP
    10 May 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Metro. CMI is the 500lb gorilla for sure. But more testing. Although with the electric side purely isolated vs already having things like SS integrated it should be an easier transition. Of course we're speculating on any transition anyway.
    10 May 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Programming the optimum duty cycle between a 4 cylinder and a 6 cylinder I would think would be the lions share of the work of swapping out motor gensets to play well with the battery bank. Should not take too long or be too difficult ... but ... more testing would be required. UGH! Maybe ePower could adopt the Microsoft software development model.
    10 May 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Better tech. through broad roll out customer feedback! MSFT Millenium 2000. Spituee!

     

    E-Power. Not gonna happen. They are not a monopoly.
    10 May 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    Wouldn't the battery provide the extra power needed so the "economy" would be there when the power was needed?
    10 May 2013, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Just as an idea for market share for class 8 trucks.
    The U.S. market share pie chart for the first eight months of 2012 shows Freightliner with a 32 percent slice of Class 8, topping International’s 19 percent. Kenworth’s share for the year so far is 14.2 percent, followed by Peterbilt at 14 percent. Volvo holds 10.5 percent and Mack 8.9 percent of Class 8 sales.

     

    Total sales August 2012 were 16,497 units
    11 May 2013, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed,
    I thought Cat was a big player in the over the road engine market as well. However, had to go to wikipedia to find that they got out of the truck market in about 2010 due to increased cost to meet EPA regulations as it was only a small part of their total sales.
    11 May 2013, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/17Toz4D

     

    This would seem to be the Cummins engine that would best fit the profile, at least from my layman's perspective, at which ePower would be looking. (it would have been much easier to have left the preposition "at" at the end of the sentance. However, didn't want to disappoint with my grammatical errors - again.

     

    OT: Getting the best Indian food ever here. Just had a great meal for $2 for one of the best meals of my life- all very fresh ingredients. The waiter just keeps recommending different things to me that he thinks I would like - and they are usually some of the cheaper things on the menu. The naan bread that I would buy in a restaurant in Portugal for about $7 is about 40 cents here.

     

    My area, although not the swankiest, has about 8 cheap Indian restaurants within 5 minutes walk. If you go down to the more expensive and more touristy areas, prices escalate dramatically.
    11 May 2013, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Metro. You find much of the best different regions/cultures have to offer when you stay away from the tourista areas. But in some regions you need some local street smarts first or you can rent it from a trusted source.

     

    Looks like you've found a place where you can't really afford to cook for yourself. Drats!
    11 May 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Fururist: IMO it "all depends". The variabilities of time vs. draw-down and recharge s/b be the criteria, combined with "how much battery is enough". More/less battery, more/less climbing duration, ... regardless, ideally we want the batteries to be able to hit the full re-charge point before next *major* demand draw-down. Smaller intermittent ones, with corresponding recharges don't seem to be a problem to me.

     

    So, if you have either hillier terrain or a long uphill slog and several smaller (or larger) ones soon to follow, you need enough HP and generation capacity to get the battery bank up to snuff, assuming a DCA capacity such as the PbC has, before the next *major* draw.

     

    All this because we don't want "too much" battery for the 80% of running, or too little, but still need HP when the exceptional conditions are encountered - to either provide the propulsion (at reduced performance - speed?) or to accomplish the re-charge in the time allotted so there's little performance penalty.

     

    It's a nice balancing act that's required.

     

    In (mostly?) ignorance, of course,
    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: Since all like to be entertained, maybe the disappointment comes with lack of "grammatical errors"? ;-))

     

    I keep trying to avoid contributing to that entertainment, but I keep failing.

     

    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • .... so I finally bought the Sep 70 PUTs on TSLA. With Implied Vols well north of 70 and the short squeeze well established, I'm content to enter the battlefield at this exact point.

     

    I'm going to enjoy watching this one over the next couple of years, for better or for worse.

     

    Good luck to all!
    9 May 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Cheers to a fellow put buyer.

     

    Question for you: if the IV is high, why buy a long dated option? It seems that you have more chances to lose even if the stock does move your way, but slowly.

     

    I'm willing to take my loss if TSLA moves against me tomorrow, but I'm doubly afraid of my options losing value after the craziness settles. If the stock doesn't tank tomorrow, I'm out.
    9 May 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • >Ranma ... I bought shorter term In the Money Calls to cover what I think will be the time deterioration of my Puts. Luck was with me on this ... beginners Luck or just plain dumb Luck ... I don't care now because it worked so far. The rumor is that this thing can go to $100 and thus my preference for long dating. The real options traders I know have told me that I should sell premium and not buy risk. I haven't figured out how to do this without buying shares to cover and/or giving myself risk induced heartburn.
    9 May 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma: You are exactly correct WFT the IV on "longer dated" PUTS making the options very, very pricey on the "long" side. What I failed to mention is that I usually leg-into the trade... thus, later (perhaps as soon as tomorrow) I will establish the "short" leg of the trade.

     

    My view is that if the TSLA price action so much as farts tomorrow (or sometime in the near future (like next week), then the IVs on the PUT side go north of 100. (sorry for the language). At that point I "sell" that IV and take in the premium.

     

    I hope that clarifies my prior post.
    10 May 2013, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • OT For the Tesla followers.

     

    Battery-Driven Tesla May Run Out of Juice

     

    http://on.wsj.com/12jBZ6J
    9 May 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    Just an FYI. When you do a link to a WSJ article, no one can read it who isn't a subscriber.
    10 May 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech, I am not a subscriber either and it allowed me to read the full article yesterday. Today it did not. Go figure!

     

    It is frustrating I know but some sites like Automotive News and Wards Auto have some content that is open source and some that is restricted to subscribers. I don't understand why sometimes, like in this case, things change between the two levels of access. Sorry bout that! :(
    10 May 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • If you google the title you can read it from there.
    10 May 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Ranma. Interesting that you can access via Google's link but not once you enter and post that as a link.
    10 May 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Ramma,
    Thanks. Interesting to note, I tried searching the title using a different search engine. I found the WSJ article, but when I clicked on it I got the same "requires subscription" message I got with IINDelco's link. However, when I did the same thing with Google, and clicked on the link, it went through to the article. I wonder if Google has a deal with WSJ that other search engines don't?
    10 May 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • For those of us still hoping for a win in the auto arena!

     

    I hadn't seen these before, apologies if these links are redundant!

     

    Stop-Start equals 'off-cycle' technology per EPA & NHTSA

     

    http://1.usa.gov/13kWwu1

     

    Also see, references 2012-2016 Cafe/GHG rules and the 2017-2025 Cafe/GHG rules with links to the exciting read of the actual standards adopted.

     

    http://bit.ly/11WFRd7

     

    The Alliance Of Automobile Manufacturers comments regarding the then proposed (now finalized) rules for the 2017-2025 Cafe/GHG rules is also interesting (to my boring mind). Autoalliance.org is semi-interesting but their comments aren't easily found on their site. Google off-cycle credits to find a pdf doc (93 page).

     

    Finally, I don't know what the credits amount to or who is taking advantage of them.
    9 May 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • A little bit more about the credits allowed for off-cycle (stop-start) and other new tech!

     

    http://bit.ly/YxP6S8
    9 May 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • And some Panasonic thoughts about a 2 battery system for Start-Stop vehicles ?? (or is it an 11 battery system?)

     

    http://bit.ly/17PTT4c
    10 May 2013, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1, Thanks. I remember Panasonic announcing the NiMH offering awhile ago. It's nice having a player like Panasonic in the industry because they offer LAB's, NiMH and lithium ion. As such they are willing to point out the advantages and disadvantages of some of the technologies because they offer all three. Here we see them pointing out the disadvantages of using LAB's for SS because they can't handle high temperatures so they have to be placed outside the engine compartment requiring those long high current capacity wires. Also pointing out that the system is not efficient due to things like poor DCA. Good for them and Axion.

     

    BTW, Axion is a "Commercial Entity" now. TG, Publish the damn specs! My opinion, not publishing the specs is BS. I grow tired of this game.
    10 May 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • I like the Panasonic option as it offers me a back-up power source for my flashlight in an emergency!

     

    As to specs, I couldn't agree more! If not specs on the PbC, then perhaps an update on the 2 battery grant, the ePower demonstration project, some documentation that the other LC battery options (Ultrabattery, spiral wound AGM, enhanced LA or AGM) really aren't up to the task in the Start-Stop application after a few months or years. I am not finding much criticism of these other options other than on this board or those days when the SS vehicles were using FLA batteries. Surely, there are no NDA's preventing some discussion of the shortcomings of the alternate batteries.
    10 May 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • 42its1, Agree with your points on information sharing. I can understand the NDA aspect with customers but TG takes the mushroom thing a little too far on the PbC tech. performance and application status side. Especially given he's raising money down here. I can understand why some of the institutional investors left. You have to have information to justify your investments.

     

    He needs to take a lamp and hook it up to a PbC and do some illumination on the activities he can talk about. Little late for the capital raise though.
    10 May 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1: For criticism of the AGM stuff, as delivered by BMW for some time, just visit some of the BMW-specific message boards. These were found and linked long ago.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    The key to my inquiry was Current info. I am aware of the BMW stuff, yet BMW is using newer versions of the AGM's. I will try BMW message boards to see if the complaints continue and what dealers are claiming as a solution! Thanks
    10 May 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1: "Current info".

     

    To me, it was "current". Last several months? Memory seems to compress time more and more as I get older and older. Einstein was right - it's all relative. :-(

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    I understand the the time compression construct quite well. I had to look up how to spell current. If there have been more recent posts, I must have missed them and will try to find same. Still haven't gotten to BMW forums, but I will. Thanks
    10 May 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1: If you've not visted BangWhiz's site, listed up in the APC header, might want to do so. It has a great search feature in a drop-down selection for all APCs or just a few months.

     

    He did a "Bang Whiz" job on it IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    Thanks--will do!
    10 May 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry if I am seeming to emulate the 'yadoodle' posters, but just wanted to share topics beyond TESLA....
    Again sorry if links have been posted previously by the more astute contributors here. Felt that even if they had been, there might be new insights in response to my re-posts!

     

    ALABC 2013-2015 Prospectus,

     

    http://bit.ly/13kHGSR

     

    I sure wish AXION had a greater presence and or demonstration component within ALABC. But I did find the discussion of: LC=Lead Carbon semi-trademark interesting!
    10 May 2013, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1,
    Nice find. It is encouraging that the government is moving in our direction on stop/start and regulations are turning in our favor - even on pickup trucks. Now if they will just move toward assuring that the system still works after a year of stop/start use.
    10 May 2013, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • It could take the states to show they are failing the pollution testing every year. But that would only work if SS is included in the testing. At present I doubt it is.
    Anyone who lives in CA. might want to write their rep. and to the agency that does the testing. :)
    10 May 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • froggy77,
    At this point, these new rules only provide an incentive to create SS vehicles via a 'credit' toward meeting CAFE standards in the future. Further, this is an attempt to consolidate the standards so that EPA, NHTSA, and CA are all using the same standards. This is not at the level of actually testing MPG claims for individual manufacturers or models. This is just beginning to formally recognize the benefits of SS or 'Off-Cycle' technology.

     

    Has anyone found any current info on the failings of the various AGM, enhanced AGM, or other LC batteries, if so please share?
    10 May 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus, nice find - thanks! Why the PbC is NOT the star of the ALABC show remains a mystery to me. You can't get more LC than the PbC. Their flagship the 48v LC SuperHybrid seems like the perfect playground for the PbC yet the latest news has the Exide spiral filling the spot.

     

    Perhaps the time is right for the new kid (PbC) to step in and take the spot with Exide distracted with other things...
    10 May 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright,

     

    IIRC, JP posted that AXION was solicited to participate with the PbC on the 12v iteration, but had other things to do and thus declined. I don't know if they were again solicited for the 48v version.

     

    I do like your point about the timing right now;

     

    "Perhaps the time is right for the new kid (PbC) to step in and take the spot with Exide distracted with other things..."
    10 May 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • The ALABC is an industry consortium so it's focus is lead-acid battery technologies that everybody in the industry can implement.

     

    Axion has spent a decade building an IP fence around the PbC and nobody gets to play that game without giving the devil his due.
    10 May 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1, you are correct and I had been waiting with great hopes that the 48v version might have a different player (Axion). It was very disappointing to see Exide still in that spot when the PbC has so much more to offer. It is the higher voltage systems where I expect the PbC (KIAS) to surpass the standard LA batteries...
    10 May 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • John, The ALABC comment is valid for carbon additives but perhaps not as true for the Ultrabattery that has licensing agreements for certain apps in specific markets. The ALABC is giving pretty good support for the Ultrabattery. Or am I mistaken here?
    10 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • East Penn is one of the three biggest battery manufacturers in North America and a big dog in the industry. They're a major ALABC supporter and far more open with IP issues than Axion can afford to be. I believe Axion could have a lot more ALABC support than it does, but only at the cost of a weaker IP position.

     

    The LC Superhybrid project is a great example of why some games aren't worth playing. The 12-V and 48-V prototypes are both designed to showcase the wonders of the electric supercharger and large starter-generator. The discussion is all about how those devices make a small engine act like a bigger one. The batteries are barely mentioned in passing, and there's no focus on the reality that the best supercharger and starter generator technology in the world is worthless unless you use a battery that can stand up to the strain.
    10 May 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen,

     

    Well that's one way of seeing it!

     

    But I don't see anything to suggest that East Penn is willing to allow JC to build the Varta Ultrabattery! Further, ALABC is a supporter of the LC Superhybrid demonstration with the 12v Ultrabattery from East Penn and the Exide Spiral Woung AGM in the 48v version. My disappointment is that AXION's PbC is not getting any of the spotlight via ALABC. I don't know if that is an AXION choice, or a 'good old boys' at ALABC approach - just wish it were different! Thanks
    10 May 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1, This is probably the most I've seen for data on the topic. Posted it in the past. You'll note in the conclusion some of the issues they are finding with the carbon enhanced NAM. JCI eluded to problems adding carbon to the NAM. I have not seen any indication of JCI offering this technology. You can bet they have studied it.

     

    Carbon-Enhanced VRLA Batteries
    September 27, 2012

     

    David G.Enos, Summer R. Ferreira
    Sandia National Laboratories

     

    Rod Shane
    East Penn Manufacturing

     

    http://1.usa.gov/T3ldSo
    10 May 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    Thanks for the link. This seemingly lopsided study would suggest that an activated carbon negative electrode does NOT fare as well as the "enhanced" PbA batteries, pg 5. However, it also fails to identify the version/brand/manufact... of the carbon anode. We know that not all activated carbon is the same, nor is the construction of said anode the same.

     

    This is more current than other info that I have read, but it really doesn't address real world testing in a Stop-Start (Off-Cycle) environment or simulation testing for this application. East Penn sure does a good job of differentiating its' Ultrabattery though! Wish we were doing some of this PR pseudo-science with the likes of Sandia.
    10 May 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1, Since it's an East Penn study w/ Sandia I'm pretty darn confident East Penn made the Neg. plates.

     

    Yeah, I know it doesn't address the SS question. Don't have anything on that.

     

    One thing we saw in the past was some of the government labs sharing proprietary information with 3rd parties. If this is the case I'd avoid them like the plague.
    10 May 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • As I understand it, the East Penn,Furukawa Ultrabattery creates there 1/2 C anode entirely different from AXION's PbC negative electrode (anode). I assumed, like you, that East Penn or whoever made this iteration and that not all carbon anodes are alike (Firefly's was yet another version), but that 'study' sure minimized that little tidbit of info and exemplified the reason I categorized it as pseudo-science. More of a sales pitch for carbon additives and the ultra-battery.

     

    I am not sure that one has to share the proprietary info with the likes of Sandia Labs, but your point is well taken. As I think about this, that may be true on the front end, but it would be proprietary info if the testing revealed faults in the design and AXION might want such info kept to itself.
    10 May 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • At the ELBC last fall Banner Batterien did a presentation that compared their carbon additive batteries with their conventional AGM batteries. You can download the presentation here.

     

    http://bit.ly/16mEScm

     

    Toward the end of the presentation Banner described the BMW-Axion micro hybrid duty cycle test regime and then showed how their AGM and carbon additive batteries performed in that duty cycle.

     

    The carbon additive batteries performed a good deal better than the straight AGM but they fell short of the PbC by a full order of magnitude (e.g. 10X)
    10 May 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John, I don't think I've seen that if you'd posted it before.
    10 May 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Me neider! Thx John!

     

    hardToLove
    10 May 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • The Banner presentation does the best job I've seen of showing how carbon additives make AGM 50% to 100% better, but they still suffer the same DCA failures at a slightly slower rate. Everybody in the industry is pounding the table over carbon additives doubling the charge acceptance of AGM, they're just leaving out the part where the OEMs need 20x the charge acceptance.

     

    In Paris Eckard Karden said that ideally OEMs wanted charge acceptance of 1.5 to 2.0 amps per amp hour. The typical AGM can deliver 0.1 to 0.15 amps per amp hour after a couple months.

     

    The PbC has been proven at 2.0 to 3.0 amps per amp hour. In fact, the ePower system pours 200+ amps into the batteries during regenerative braking events, which is why they slagged flooded and AGM batteries. They've tried their best to destroy the PbC and failed miserably. So has Norfolk Southern.

     

    Both were putting 200+ amp currents into a 70 amp-hour battery, or just a hair shy of 3 amps per amp hour.
    10 May 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John, We hear all of these facts as a result of your interest in the field supported by your travels and contacts. We are fortunate that you are willing to take the time in this forum to share them.

     

    My questions are, Wouldn't it make sense for Axion to put something together with stated requirements from experts in their targeted markets and tie these into some form of communication that allows the broader market to review this information. This could be coupled with how the PbC battery might be packaged to satisfy these requirements. Isn't that a part of good marketing? Why are they so stealth outside of existing customer relationships and industry meetings?
    10 May 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • I'd love to see a pile of white papers on the PbC and the results of projects like the DOE grant. Unfortunately I'm not in a position to influence those decisions.
    10 May 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: My thoughts exactly - that 200 amp info needs to be "in the wild" where everybody and his brother can't avoid bumping into it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • John
    Thank you for reminding me why I bought AXPW stock in the first place. ( I bought AXPW after I read the BMW/AXPW Istanbul paper.)These type of information should be listed in AXPW investor section of their website to help the general public to decide whether to buy AXPW stock.

     

    APH
    Please highlight John's comment on the concentrator headings. It may also help some old AXPW stock holders to remember why we bought the AXPW stock.
    10 May 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... I wish Axion would make official & available information like this:

     

    "Last night when I talked with Mayascribe, he told me that he asked the maximum charge current question we were speculating about the other day. The response he got, and I'm not sure from who, was that the PbC can accept charging currents of up to 400 Amps, but nobody is designing systems that need that much charge acceptance. NS apparently needed something in the 200 Amp range to cover all their regen loads.

     

    The HT 30 has a 70 Ah rating with a one hour energy capacity of 500 wh. So unless I'm mistaken, we're sitting on a lead-acid battery that can handle a 10C charging current as compared to a C/10 charging current for every other lead-acid device."

     

    http://bit.ly/11qMJVc

     

    Somebody out there in the world might be interested if they just knew or could stumble across it in a search.
    10 May 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: I recalled the 400 amp had been seen, but couldn't recall where.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • iinde, you asked, "Why are they so stealth outside of existing customer relationships and industry meetings?"

     

    Good, natural Q. The cc is less than a week away. Would be nice if you or someone else were to ask the company then. If fact, it's a good opportunity for us to ask several fair, straight-forward, important questions that have not yet been asked. Tops on my list is why there have been no PC sales.

     

    Another is, what happened to Maya? ;^)
    10 May 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Thought the same thing myself. I see his last post on Seekingalpha was April 18th or 19th. Thought maybe he was on a trip.
    10 May 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Unfortunately, this is my major beef with mgt style. IMO there are many aspects to managing a public company and Axion's management of communication or promotion pales in comparison to the showman Musk.

     

    It has been stated over and over, there are MANY disclosures the company could give that could be designed in a way so as not to violate NDAs. When your share price is wallowing in the mid .20s creativity is necessary.
    10 May 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Maya is spending much needed time with his Novel and bouncing around SA when he has time. I suspect he keeps up-to-date with the APC...
    10 May 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    Just wondering if ePower has changed their charge cycle to take advantage of the DCA available with the PbC.

     

    I would like to thank NS for establishing a pattern of abuse for our batteries that we are proud to share with other customers.

     

    Maybe PbC should be called the "S&M Battery" - "You'll love punishing it. It loves being punished."
    10 May 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • "PbC---It takes a one heck of a licking...without any bitching" ;)

     

    All apologies in advance, but verily I found it beyond my power to resist...
    11 May 2013, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  • 48-

     

    You should copyright that one!

     

    WT
    11 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Metro. NS punishing only the batteries? As an Axion investor they make me feel like Tantalus. Every time I look back for the NS 999 arrival it recedes down the track. Look forward for the OTR app. and the wind blows the mirage further to the horizon where the tracks appear to merge. Well, At least I can stand on the tracks and rest assured that I will not get run over!

     

    Not their fault but for a wet paint watcher it's a hair puller. Hell, even Gerhard Thelen retired because he couldn't stand it any more! At his retirement party they probably gave him a battery operated model of the NS999 with dead batteries so it didn't confuse him by moving when he turned it on. Bet the batteries where orange but he sees yellow. :)
    11 May 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • He's busy other places it seems.

     

    http://bit.ly/13xDK0T

     

    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • "He's busy other places it seems"

     

    Yes, places he has always frequented. The APC took a lot of time away from his writing and he is shifting his energy back there. Maya is the reason why we have the APC but there is enough talent here to keep things interesting for those of us with the time on our hands...
    11 May 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • A MF article for the Tesla interested parties.

     

    Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Why Are Some Investors Bearish?

     

    http://bit.ly/10zLt0y
    10 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • For those with interest, I've got the 5/8 commentary, with observations, and charts completed and in my instablog now.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Our friend Scott Sklar gives Axion a plug in this post.

     

    Innovations Prolific In Renewable Energy

     

    " One new US manufacturer in Pennsylvania produces a carbon supercapacitor battery blending a totally recyclable, long-lasting battery material with solid state storage, and installed a 1 MW storage unit on the PJM electric grid."

     

    http://bit.ly/14aB4qf
    10 May 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Big LIKE to that! (Someone should ask Sklar or the Naval District Washington how the PbC is performing in their zero energy bldg.)
    10 May 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Iindelco, I found this author and his article to be quite interesting. These are some of his concluding remarks:

     

    As I have stated many times before on this web site, more than twenty-five prestigious studies over the last few years, conclude that the world including the United States could meet most or all of their energy from existing, commercially-available high value energy efficiency and renewable energy. Over half of this energy is economic with short term payback and is not happening because conventional energy is subsidized or regulations drive higher-cost generation rather than saving energy. Certain countries and State governments have addressed these impediments while others are using the same rules that were in place in the beginning of the 20th century.
    10 May 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • So many NS projects :-(

     

    I'm pretty sure the 999 was built on a GP-38 frame.

     

    http://on.fb.me/16mHeYK

     

    "NS GP22ECOs 5900 and 5901 have been a success, so NS has decided to start rebuilding some GP38-2s with the 8-710 engine. NS 5301 will be the first one, seen here at Juniata back in February. Many details are unknown at this time such as whether they will be renumbered and reclassed. There will be much more involved than just replacing the old 16-645 with the 8-710, as the 710 engine requires a larger radiator and computer controls. Check this web page as we fill in the blanks: http://bit.ly/14aIIkt

     

    See also:

     

    4/2013, There are still a good many SD40s, GP38s, and GP50s stored at Altoona. The last SD38 is here as well.

     

    http://on.fb.me/16mHff4"

     

    I was told the SD40 or SD60 might be candidates for the OTR unit ... one of these years ... unless they find something better (to NSC) to do with them.
    10 May 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: We need to peek at the new 6 senior mgrs and prez that NSC named when we get a chance.

     

    Might be some clues there.

     

    Marketwatch and PR Newswire are listed as sources - I don't have time ATM to chase.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Reports that I have seen on the new managers are heavily waited on HR. One retiring manager mentioned had in-depth technical background.
    10 May 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • New technique to improve quality control of lithium-ion batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/16n1b1s
    10 May 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • How do you sell a battery that is so secret?

     

    Posters (investors and potential investors) here are becoming legitimately skeptical due to the dearth of information regarding this battery. NDA's (non disclosure agreements), closely held IP (intellectual property), too busy to participate (LC Superhybrid), many RFP's from undefined entities or even market segments... those are getting to be more like the explanations one gets from the cold fusion proponents.
    How does an engineer/designer in the electrical field or automotive or transport or solar or freight or rails or ... become aware of AXION's products and capabilities? This is not a matter of a catchy name being needed, it is a need for information/specificat...

     

    John Petersen has done an excellent job of educating and sharing insights regarding the PbC and it is not his job/responsibility to do more. It is the responsibility of AXION to be more forthcoming with virtually any information. The financing issue is done for now, so that is no longer a good excuse for the secrecy. I can accept the financing terms but I can't escape the reality that you can't sell many a battery that no one can talk about, ever!

     

    And the anecdotal sharing of speculative info is not going go far either, I think that course is spent (except for the Tesla and Lithium battery fantasies).
    10 May 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1, been following this story for awhile and while I have bought a good deal of shares, I have never sold a share. With that said - <snark> Edison had a comment about battery salesman <end snark>
    10 May 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Axion has a component that does crazy cool things. No one can match it. A customer comes by and says they want to but some, but only if they agree not to tell the world what the component's characteristics are. Oh, and it will be years before they can start buying it for themselves. ...
    10 May 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Yes I have been following the story for a few years myself, and yes I bought some too, sold none and am holding in spite of my rhetoric. I do understand the allure of a secret battery when it comes to buying shares! BUT, I don't know how you sell a secret battery or know all the possible niches it might serve when it is such an enigma!
    10 May 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • I'd be willing to give current mgmt a lot of disclosure rope if they were delivering significant PbC sales. If they announced at least a few PC sales already, like they said they expected, and some HUB sales, I wouldn't care nearly as much about the disclosures.

     

    BUT, when they are underperforming, it's only reasonable that investors become compelled to care. What's wrong, and what is being done to correct it?

     

    Well, enough of this topic from me! Lots of sharp and motivated investors here, so I don't want to clog this blog with the same obvious point.
    10 May 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • The problem as I see it is that since there is NO advertising and NO specs are out in the public domain its not in the least surprising that Axion has next to NO sales!

     

    It might just be possible that there are companies out there in the big wide world that have applications that are desperate for PbC technology but do not know that it even exists!
    10 May 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1,

     

    "Be vehwee vehwee quiet. We're hunting elephants!"
    11 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin,

     

    Would those be the ones in the room that no one wants to talk about?
    11 May 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • It is a theme we have joked about for eons on the concentrators.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 May 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin,

     

    No worries!

     

    Yes, I know! I been watching for years as well. Just don't post much.

     

    My attempts at humor confound as many as those who chuckle, but I am way too old to change (read stubborn)!
    11 May 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor,

     

    I think you are right in a way because it raises the point that we haven't seen any sales at all so far, when indeed TG was implying in last year's conference call that we could reasonably expect some by Q1 2013.

     

    So unless the conference call shows a marked increase in PbC sales (whether it is for recurring revenue, or just plain testing), quite a few more investors will become frustrated with the lack of progress and -who knows- decide to jump ship!
    11 May 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna, Granville wasn't implying, he plainly stated it.

     

    I don't know who would be expecting a big increase in PbC sales in Q1, since no PRs have been issued regarding big orders. The company knows the stock is starved for sales, so no way do they pass up the chance at a PR if they are allowed to issue one. For a PC order, for example.

     

    To me, the only reasonable cases where they might not issue a PR for a significant order, because they're not allowed to, is for testing, such as BMW fleet testing or Freightliner APU testing. Those could be big events for the stock of course. Good luck to those hanging their hat on those disclosures during next week's cc, though. I would assume and hope that people are taking a longer-term view than that, and have paid attention to the fact that the company has not been releasing big, solid news at any of its cc's over at least the last 18 months. But if for some crazy reason a few guys were expecting a lot and become disappointed and dump, then I may buy some if we retest 20 cents. Maybe. Possibly. If I can get anti-dilution provisions from the seller, lol. ;^)
    11 May 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1,

     

    Tell me about too old and stubborn.

     

    My other handle is Kermudjin. My wife labeled me that years ago.
    11 May 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • I did my part and added 10k shares today
    10 May 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone a trucker or knows one that may have heard talk about the ePower trucks? There should be some talk about them on trucker channels, since they are one of a kind.
    10 May 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Greentongue, I am in the business and the ePower concept is not something the average trucker is going to talk about. They talk about how big (HP) their engines are and how much chrome is on the truck. Now if there was a Capstone in the engine compartment and it smoked all the truck in a hill climb, then we would hear some talk.

     

    However, there are some bottom line guys who would be interested and they are the ones that go to the Truck Shows. Spring and Fall are the best time to show your wares so perhaps ePower could make the truck show(s) this Fall...
    10 May 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, Question for you as an independent. If you are getting say 30% better gas mileage than your competitor over routes that are acceptable for this technology, does that give you a significant enough competitive advantage to assure you are kept busy in leaner times or is this small enough that it might get buried by x other factors that are more significant. Just trying to get a feel for how great an impact this would have on individual or fleet operators. Feel free to add additional thoughts but for the sake of this exercise look at it as all things being equal first.

     

    One other question if you don't mind. Let's for a moment say you're an independent trucker and there is some compromise in the E-Power offering. Let's say you lose speed on some of the worst hills and your acceleration is slightly less also causing you some added time from pick-up to delivery. How critical is this to an independent or a fleet operator? I think your books are kept on time on the road correct? Give me kind of a feel for what might be a best guess time where things start to become a factor that would be taken into consideration. I know there are some "It depends" in there as well.

     

    Just trying to get a feel for how much compromise might be acceptable ignoring the macho part of the equation (Not minimizing that at all though).
    10 May 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • "They talk about how big (HP) their engines are..."
    - This is where I thought the topic might go.
    "They are using a Battery?!, not a real engine? Are you kidding me??"
    - Jokes spread fast, if performance was a joke.
    11 May 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue,
    I think the appropriate expression might be "laughing all the way to the bank". That is if the additional time lost on hills is not significant (whatever significant might be), the improved fuel mileage numbers hold, and the reliability is there.

     

    Perusing the Cummins website, not sure if there already is a generator and engine set that could be used with little modification, or if it would require some changes. Whatever the case, I hope that Cummins is willing to work with ePower and that a new motor and generator - if ePower goes that way - is quick to put together so we can get another round of testing out of the way.
    11 May 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • The biggest advantage of a series hybrid drive is immense torque from a dead stop. When I went on my test ride the driver explained that the darned truck was like a jackrabbit pulling away from stop lights and the speed range where acceleration became an issue and extra power from the battery became critical was 35 to 65.

     

    It's the same basic phenomenon as the blistering 0 to 60 acceleration of a Tesla Model S.
    11 May 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • John: Have they talked to (UQM) and/or others? ISTR that UQM had "constant" torque motors by managing the current to the windings and their timing?

     

    Not sure, but ... I don't know if their new 220 is large enough though.

     

    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco, finding the profit in the trucking industry can be a complicated affair but there is nothing complicated about cutting your operating costs from .66 a mile to .44 a mile ($4 per gallon @ 6 or 9 mpg).

     

    In leaner times in the spot freight market this would allow you to run the good paying freight into leaner markets making more freight available to you. In the contracted market (larger fleets running specific lanes) this would allow you to expand your business pretty rapidly. Contracts are won in the .01-.02 range. Basically, that kind of a margin would rock the industry.

     

    Increasing transit time. From an operational perspective, I don't see the decrease in speed climbing hills or getting to cruising speed having a significant effect on meeting schedules. I am sure there will be a few routes that will need to be tweaked but we are not talking about much time here. From the drivers perspective it will be much different (depending on the capacity of the driver). You are increasing the time spent behind the wheel and even though it may be minor it will have a negative psychological effect on those drivers who have difficulty managing or valuing time. If the profits were shared with the driver (which I am certain they won't be) it might help ease the tension.

     

    This psychological effect remains true for some owner operators as well. When you get used to a certain performance it can be hard to make the adjustment even if you know it is saving you money. I know drivers that insist on cruising at 75 even though they are told that cruising at 65 will save them 1 MPG or around $12,000 a year. If you are passing and not being passed you must be doing better right? These are the same guys that blow past me only to be stopped at the next red light while I time the light and pass them (slow but steady)...

     

    I do not know if the ePower model will be successful. The importance of the project to me is the performance of the PbC and the folks that are watching. On board storage in trucking is inevitable as is frictionless braking if we want to capture the otherwise lost kinetic energy. I am sure there will be many variations but they will all have storage...
    11 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • greentounge,

     

    ""They talk about how big (HP) their engines are..."
    - This is where I thought the topic might go.
    "They are using a Battery?!, not a real engine? Are you kidding me??"
    - Jokes spread fast, if performance was a joke."

     

    Unfortunately, the bean counters in business don't pay much attention to what the drivers might think until they have trouble putting a driver behind the wheel. I don't expect they will have much trouble keeping drivers in this economic climate (don't believe the driver shortage non-sense)...
    11 May 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim, Thanks for your reply. The answer was exactly what I was looking to understand from the perspective of someone I knew had the background and expertise to tie the importance of how it would play in the industry. From your prior posts I can tell you are well read on technical aspects of equipment being used today and under consideration for future application in the industry. I also knew that you walk the talk and consider not some old formula for making money in the industry but all the factors that optimize safety and efficiency. After all at the end of the day it's what you put in your pocket with due consideration for the other things you have on your plate (personal and professional).

     

    I had hoped that the magnitude of fuel savings we're bantering about were a large component of the operational cost but hey it's not my stomping ground. Good to hear it's not viewed by everyone like it was by the majority American consumer of yesteryear. Oh, that's nice, tell me again about the 0-60 MPH time and the optional bling stuff to compliment the standard bling stuff.
    11 May 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • "I had hoped that the magnitude of fuel savings we're bantering about were a large component of the operational cost but hey it's not my stomping ground"

     

    Oh but .22 pure profit a mile is quite large and it's not like fuel efficient tires that will eventually pay for themselves, this is profit you take each mile traveled - now/today.

     

    Lets talk contracted freight where you bid on a given route and its yours until the contract ends. The difference between bids from Schneider and Swift will most likely be 1-2 cpm so having a 22 cpm advantage would be outstanding (as long as there were no service failures).

     

    The cost of doing business, aside from the fuel, is around 85 cpm. As a rule, the tractor costs around 22 cpm, trailer 8 cpm, driver varies but lets say 45 cpm and admin 10 cpm.

     

    Fuel is your largest single cost and the price can vary significantly. To help with this we have a fuel surcharge (FS) that calculates the spread between $2 and the national average (NA) into a cost per mile figure. The formula is the (NA - $2) divided by 5 mpg. Base fuel is at a fixed rate of $2 a gallon divided by 5 mpg or 40 cents per mile. If the NA is $4 then the FS would also be 40 cents per mile ((4-2)/5).

     

    Using the figures above our cost of operations per mile would be $ .85 for equipment and personnel and then another $.80 for fuel for a total cost of $1.65. Now if we were getting 9 mpg our fuel would go from .80 to .44 lowering our total cost per mile to $1.29. If your competition is getting 5 mpg then you have a .36 per mile advantage at today's fuel prices.

     

    What if the fuel prices go to $5 a gallon? If you keep your FS contract to match your competition (5 mpg) then you are going to make a killing! Remember the standard FS calculation is the difference between $2 and the NA divided by 5 mpg or .60 cents per mile at $5 a gallon. Your cost is only .33 cpm so you are making .24 cpm more than your competition. The rising of fuel prices will bring more profits or you could make your contract more attractive by lowering your fuel surcharge costs for your customers.

     

    More than you probably wanted to know but I had some time today...
    11 May 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tim,

     

    Thank you or that, it was a perfect explanation of how important the fuel savings are to the industry! This will have an impact that all competitors will eventually have to deal with in one way or another!

     

    RBrun357
    11 May 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Tim,
    Great explanation. Another possible benefit, to the folks getting those savings, could be a slowing of the rate at which freight is moved to the RRs. For certain routes I think ... or maybe to reduce "dead head" back?

     

    HardToLove
    12 May 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Tim, Ditto RBrun's thanks and thoughts. Perfect information for those of us not affiliated with the industry but trying to quantify the importance of an advancement we're looking to get a piece of. So glad I asked, got a treasure of an answer.

     

    First mover status would be a biggun! But again the key is "Robust". Nobody makes money making random unplanned stops. Little Pb puddles would cause a tear for sure as I'm sure it did with the failure of the prior AGM batteries. KIAS- As already TM'ed Kick ^%$ Solutions. We hope.

     

    In gratitude I share this OT down time cool video sent to my esposa.

     

    Attraction (Shadow Dance Group) on Britain's Got Talent

     

    http://bit.ly/10jRxs6
    12 May 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Glad to have something to share. Enjoyed the shadow dance, I hope they do well...
    12 May 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Indelco: Simply beautiful!

     

    HardToLove
    12 May 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • They were incredible. Thanks Iindelco.
    14 May 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • I tried earlier to engage shareholders on the blog to start formulating valid questions for the Conference call. No takers.

     

    Valid questions don't impinge on NDAs. They ask generalities in specific areas. For example. "TG, in the past you informed us that sales would be growing. Can you give the shareholders an idea of how PBC sales have been growing? And if I might add, what does the executive team feel are growth goals for the PBC in the next 12 months?

     

    I know I can't make the call. But would love to ask a few more specific questions, that are fair to management.
    10 May 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Where are the Residential Hub sales?

     

    does that qualify?
    10 May 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • How about:

     

    Do you still expect to become cash flow positive in Q4 this year?

     

    If not. When?
    11 May 2013, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • Now that Aion is a "commercial entity", can you offer mileposts, "forward guidance", measurable progress bars that we can look for, estimated top and bottom-line results, ... as do other commercial entities?

     

    The old methods have grown quite distasteful.

     

    HardToLove
    11 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    I agree with all of the questions here, but the ones you listed are the key high level information that we need. TG made such a big deal about no longer being an R&D stage company and then provides no guidance!

     

    In terms of other specific question, I would like to know what they see as their top near term market (1 yr), mid term (2-4 yrs), and longer term markets. I would also like to understand their marketing plan better. There has been some talk on the concentrators in the past few months about whether or not Axion should have had more sales effort in the past. To me what they need is marketing. Does everyone who should know about the greatness of the PbC battery actually know? For example does every automaker really understand the PbC battery? Axion couldn't necessarily work with every automaker, but it would be great if every automaker wanted to work with Axion. I seriously doubt they would answer this question in any detail. But this is not something that would be subject to NDA.
    12 May 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist, IMO very few Axionistas showed up on the last call to ask questions and very few questions got asked. I will be there asking questions as I have not found a job yet.

     

    Can I get a LIKE if you plan on asking questions with me this time around. I will not be shy and I will try to get in the que at least two times this Thursday.
    13 May 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • KentG: OOPS! I "liked" when I don't know yet if I'll be able to get on - I hope to though.

     

    HardToLove
    13 May 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • I was wondering if I should duplicate my comment on APC 235? I forgot I wasn't reading the latest APC due to ignoring it for 6 days due to a ton of negativity.

     

    H2L, did you ask questions on the last CC?
    13 May 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Kent: No. The conference ended. I'm thinking they allot a fixed amount of time and then end it. IIRC, others said they were also waiting and didn't get a chance.

     

    HardToLove
    14 May 2013, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • "I understand you have production line(s) that you use for producing limited runs of these batteries. What inventory of completed product are you maintaining?
    In the last quarter you indicated that you are carrying increased inventory on the books; what does that inventory consist of? Raw materials for battery production? completed anodes? At what rate is your stock of inventory turning over? Have you delivered carbon anodes from your automated production line to any other entity outside of Axion?
    How many battery units have you delivered since the last conference call?
    When do you anticipated making batteries available on the open market for general sales?
    unfortunately, I have a day job, so I won't be on the phone either, but I'll look for the results here on the 5 O'clock blog...
    11 May 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Happy National Train Day!

     

    http://bit.ly/15yK6Cp

     

    I wish we had more to celebrate :-(
    11 May 2013, 10:55 AM