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  • Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 340 comments
    May 15, 2013 7:37 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Releases 10-Q For The First Quarter 2013 --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

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    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 5/10/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 5/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (341)
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  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    As #1 I would also point out I was first to post to good news on auto :)
    15 May 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, See I looked and said to myself that there is no way I will come in first so I posted second. Ta da!
    15 May 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    2nd-Hey I'm an Axionista. Half m/t.
    15 May 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Also posted on 235, but I'm impatient

     

    iindelco,
    Q for me is would OEM pursue 'alternative provider' arrangements with less than very high likelihood of adoption of that product? Or is this a normal course of business dd, not necessarily signaling a forthcoming technology/product adoption?
    Your wisdom in these matters much appreciated.
    15 May 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Re-posted answer.

     

    Anthlj, I can't envision where an OEM would look across their supply base (and perhaps at other capable external suppliers) with Axion in tow and "asked us to pursue with them" without a high probability of implementation. As I said before I would think they would give Axion advice on what they need for a tier one supplier but not get involved with the discussions so much other than to make sure the parties understood what might evolve based on their future business needs. This looks like Axion has not been successful, not really surprised, and an OEM is providing some stimulus. They have a bag full of stimulus! ;))
    15 May 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    If an automaker is complaining about a sole source problem that may just be a buying objection. If its calling a supplier and saying "we want this technology but we want you to build the batteries" it's fulfillment of my fondest dream.

     

    I never believed battery manufacturers would come to Axion of their own volition. I was certain they'd come if Axion sold the product to their customers and those customers forced the issue.

     

    One thing is absolutely certain. If I'm sitting in the executive suite at a German battery manufacturer there's no way I'll cut a deal with Axion without rock solid assurances that the customer is ready to rock and roll in a big way.
    15 May 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    JP: I think this is the "whisper in the ear" we (all?) surmised would be required, and quite effective, a couple years(?) back.

     

    The timing, to me, seems to also support our(?) conjecture that there was no serious commitment until the new sheet process proved itself and that once that was done, they could proceed.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    third?
    15 May 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    My favorite paragraph sorta slid by unnoticed in earlier comments

     

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits – long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization – create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

     

    This paragraph focuses on the need for strategic alliances with vehicle systems developers, folks like Bosch, Valeo and Magna. The statement that "we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners" is critically important news.
    15 May 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I noticed this paragraph. It made me wonder who drove this collaboration. I thought it strange that "strategic partners" needed to be virtually forced to work with Axion. A situation I would have thought they, SP's, would have found on their own and long ago.
    15 May 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, and I have already submitted a FOIA request for this application.
    15 May 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Cheeseman over at XIDE has to be going uh oh.
    -
    Now for my glass half full statement. What on God's Green Earth would make Axion close a financing round before publicly announcing the content in this report? I don't get it.
    15 May 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    maybe I don't understand the financing, but to me it would seem that by coming in period tranches that are at bottom exit-able via cash by Axion it looks like a measure of insurance against much bigger positive developments that are now inside the horizon, if not quite yet in the bag... IOW if in a few month's time Axion does in fact bag the big elk, which will enable/bring along other monies, that it (Axion) can escape having to fully consummate the remaining balance of the deal, albeit paying some exit price to do so, (though not the full price, IE issuing quite *all* those shares at ~two bits each) Again, I may be suffering from a GCE* WRT the financing terms, and very much welcome any and all technical correction, but that is the one sense I can make of it...

     

    *Gross Conceptual Error
    15 May 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Yes, I noticed it. Just haven't had time to read the whole thing, before now, and write down my questions. My favorite part was:

     

    "Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners"
    I would really like some comment on what stages of vehicle testing they are talking about?? We still haven't heard anything about whether the 3rd party testing for BMW is complete, but now we have vehicle testing? By whom and at what size??
    15 May 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    John: I read that para to be referring to the trucking OEM and ePower for whatever that is worth.
    15 May 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Al,
    I did too, initially. But if you go back you will see that it is for the SBIR grant and therefore is for auto not trucking.
    15 May 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    The financing terms to me speak louder than these other conjectures. We know that the new investors gave axion a "full physical". Thus their desire to roll out out the cash dispersal in stages and the other toxic convertible provisions makes me think they weren't too wowed in the short term.
    16 May 2013, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    Baz > "desire to roll out out the cash dispersal in stages and the other toxic convertible provisions makes me think they weren't too wowed in the short term. "

     

    That is an interpretation that I accord some weight. But, I also consider the possibility that "cash dispersal in stages" and 8% interest rate reflects, in part, efforts by Granville & Co. to raise no more funding than is needed. Immediate cash needed for continuing operations was provided by Averill and the ~$2.7 mil. delivered by the other investors at closing of the agreement. As I understand the financing agreement, Axion is not committed to taking the full amount the investors are obligated to provide if Axion wants to take it. In return, Axion agreed to pay a generous commitment fee (8% interest on commitment amount).
    16 May 2013, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    Look at it from the investor's standpoint: this is essentially a 1 year term loan. For all the DD work and risk they are taking on, you'd expect them to charge 8% to a microcap OTC company. I don't think it reflects their wow factor at all. All that for 8% is not too much to ask.
    16 May 2013, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Maybe now Mr Market is standing ready to reward Axion with an eye-watering 30 times book value, or maybe its just me dreaming...:(
    16 May 2013, 04:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, you are correct in that 8% was not too much to ask, These terms at this point in time for where AXPW is in the business cycle was not as bad as it could have been.
    The key is what the new investors do with the new shares?
    16 May 2013, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    JP: ""we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners" is critically important news".

     

    Noticed and disregarded by me.

     

    Why get hung up on another long process of no news allowed, interminable delays and anticipation of "near-term" results when everything to-date says that's a road to ... something depending on one's particular emotional make-up, likely at least frustration.

     

    I suspect that, "commercial enterprise" or not, we'll still be complaining about the dark.

     

    MHO, and prepared to weather this one too,
    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    LT: page 30 of the filing:
    "t) Trading in Common Stock .

     

    (i) Each Buyer hereby agrees, severally and not jointly, for so long as such Buyer owns any Notes, such Buyer shall not (x) maintain a Net Short Position (as defined below) or (y) together with any of its affiliate Buyers, sell shares of Common Stock of the Company received by such Buyer pursuant to a Company Conversion (as defined in the Notes) during any Trading Day in an amount, in the aggregate, exceeding 15% of the composite aggregate share trading volume as reported on Bloomberg (as defined in the Warrant) of the Common Stock measured at the time of each sale of securities during such Trading Day. "

     

    I mentioned this before - TG tried to offer at least a modicum of protection. There's also a discussion of short-selling restrictions and other stuff.

     

    http://bit.ly/YYb03q

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1888) | Send Message
     
    Looks like a really good report and the tone seems to be adding a little more color to the ongoing relationships. Perhaps, TG will be a chatty-kathy tomorrow, if he is we will know this APC is rubbing off on him. Charging forward.
    15 May 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone!!

     

    I think today we have good news. You understand better than I, but they talk of: "Our hybrid passenger vehicle" They do not say: Micro Hybrid-car.

     

    Have a good night-Carlos
    15 May 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (2167) | Send Message
     
    Have we heard about NS contractor problems causing delay before?
    15 May 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, YES!
    15 May 2013, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "Have we heard about NS contractor problems causing delay before?"

     

    Yes.
    15 May 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (2167) | Send Message
     
    lol - bupkis.

     

    They can support the trains, the trucks, and they can scale up - I don't see the current lack of capacity as a show-stopper for any OEM. They must deal with this exact problem each redesign. I wish we did have that problem, to be honest.
    15 May 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1134) | Send Message
     
    >jpau... Re: "My biggest hope was that TG was right and Axion somehow became revenue neutral by end of this year."

     

    This has been my hope as well, and I continued to build my position in recent weeks because I felt (fairly) confident this would likely happen. I also felt that whenever this happened, it would finally put to rest the anxieties over future financings, and the pps would most likely improve significantly as a result. --- This latest news now has me thinking we may be at a watershed moment, and optimistic that revenue neutral will likely occur this year. There's so much good news in this quarterly report, that I have a feeling some of the Axionistas who have jumped ship because of the dearth of news in recent months will likely be looking to at least dip their toes back in the waters again. If that ends up being the case, welcome back!
    15 May 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    We've seen other battery mfgs. adding carbon paste, etc to their offerings. From one perspective, they are trying to not work with us. From another perspective, their product doesn't work and they can't work with us because we have been making paper doilies by hand. They couldn't use us if they wanted to, so they went ahead with what was next best for them.

     

    I don't think we've appreciated exactly how the primitiveness of our mfg. process has kept OEMs and other battery manufacturers from working with us. Along the same lines, JB said we can produce 450 products a day...450 a day. That's big $$ for us, but I think a bubkas number for a car manufacturer.

     

    Re multiple sites of manufacture: another major impediment to an OEM and a situation that every really new product that will work with established industries must face.

     

    Maybe things are going much faster than we think. We are only looking at this from the perspective of: Everyone should get it as we get it and just buy it...when there is so much more to this.

     

    We love it because it is a revolutionary battery. Then we forget that it is NOT a drop-in product...it's a battery that takes revolutionary manufacturing to make and revolutionary software/hardware to make use of it.

     

    How long does that take in a mature market? Years and years. We just got a real manufacturing operation going; just putting away the pinking shears. Again, maybe this is going very quickly.
    15 May 2013, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    Overall it was a decent report. Things are progressing however it's still very slowly.

     

    As to revenue neutral, I don't see it. They say they should have enough money to last until 2nd qtr. 2014. So that coupled with having to approve another 100 million shares tells me that things are in the works, but no big sales for the next year. IMO, they are still 2 years away from real revenues. Got to do deals on paper first, then build out manufacturing, then ship product and revenue comes last.

     

    As to the "various stages of lab & fleet testing" is the fleet part just ePower or is it auto too?
    15 May 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    LT, My belief is that the stock will move initially due to agreements and relationships before sales. This will depend on the depth of both though.

     

    Since we are starting to see some signs of maturity we'll get some clues soon.
    15 May 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "I don't think we've appreciated exactly how the primitiveness of our mfg. process has kept OEMs and other battery manufacturers from working with us. Along the same lines, JB said we can produce 450 products a day...450 a day. That's big $$ for us, but I think a bubkas number for a car manufacturer."

     

    Thotdoc < 100 batteries per day five days per week would yield 2K batteries per month and 200 per day calculates as 4K over the same time frame. There are a lot of car OEMs producing models that sell less than 2K per month and a bunch more selling less than 4K. Reportedly, additional robotic electrode assembly lines can be installed in about three months at a cost of ~$3 mil per.

     

    LT < Since the grant application pertains to auto sector, I interpret "fleet testing" as referring to BMW or a major Asian OEM (Toyota) and lab testing as reference to GM or Toyota.
    16 May 2013, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    I too have often wondered if we're are just too "small fry". How often do those that do Billions in revenues partner with someone who does a few million? I don't think that occurs too much in the transport, utility, and storage worlds. I've never questioned the "mousetrap". But sometimes I wonder if Axion is looked upon similar to the way I look at my neighbor who gets 100mpg out of his garage modified 10 year old Prius.
    16 May 2013, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    To be clear, I still do not like mgt. any more than I did before the report. IMO, its obvious that possible strategic partners don't like them either. TG has always over promised and under delivered..as well as not being able to form good relationships. I will never forgive him for that. It's just a trust issue. As someone posted on the last APC that IF we knew just how far AXPW was from the point they are today (mfg., auto carbon sheeting, industry adoption, sales orders) I doubt seriously that nearly as many axionista's would exist. I sincerely hope all of you are rewarded because by & large this is a great group of people. The ones who buy over the next 12-18 months are the ones who stand to gain the most IMO. Hopefully the 2-3 relationships he has will bear fruit.

     

    The report shows some progress, but we still have too many unanswered questions and an indefinite time period as to when all this comes together.

     

    Indelco, no one here knows the auto business better than you. So don't take this as disagreement in any form. My caution on how much of a pop in pps is based on the following and also that the battery business isn't as sexy as TSLA cars. Ex.=ZBB.

     

    -AXPW capital raise just completed just keeps the doors open another year. Then they have to issue more stock, debt, or someone takes a big stake in the company.
    - There is still a significant amount of capital to be raised to complete their business plan. Which means even more shares to be created.
    -Auto will squeeze margins all they can.
    -IMO, we will be lucky to get in 2015 models.
    -NS still probably a year away from starting the OTR (if they do)
    -There is still a threat that the business plan has to be altered, in that they have to license the tech, or worse get bought out.
    -With say 200-300 million shares outstanding, it may limit the upside. The ones buying now or on any further drop in pps could double or triple, but it does little to help most of us who were early.
    16 May 2013, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Mr Investor,

     

    If you are planning on attending the cc, I highly suggest you vent your frustration on the line. Specifically, ask targeted questions like:

     

    - Numbers and yardsticks we can use to judge the progress/performance. No more vague statements

     

    - Where are the efforts to expand the marketing team?

     

    - What's the status on other auto OEMs relationships?

     

    - Are they counting on the lead acid contract to be renewed for recurring revenue, or is it being cancelled (maybe it is mentioned in the 10-q and I just didn't see it...)

     

    - What is happening in the inventory levels?

     

    I think these would be a good start. I understand your frustration, but hey, nothing of worth comes easily in life I guess :)
    16 May 2013, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Sorry my last post was to LT, not Mr Investor :)!
    16 May 2013, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    Amouna...it's not frustration....it's fact & truth as I see it and history stands for it's self. Not to mention stock price and history over the last 3-4 years.

     

    btw...I don't own one single share now either. My frustration is in the past. I just like following the story. Funny that you mention my frustration and then post that you don't like the financing deal.
    16 May 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    "additional robotic electrode assembly lines can be installed in about three months"

     

    Long ago and far away ... it was stated that the lines were now about 3 weeks delivery because it was a "cookie cutter" operation now.

     

    If that be true, just shipping, installation, set up and adjustment, and some test runs is added? S/b less than three months?

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    LT, As DRich, I and a few others have indicated automotive is a terrible business to support. It does however carry weight because if you can supply automotive, meeting their requirements, you'll get a pass go just about anywhere. So it gives them access to scale and thus it becomes a great enabler to support the industries where the money is. A right of passage.

     

    You'll walk away bloody and toothless but you'll be recognized for it and allowed through a bunch of doors. But alas, along the way you'll question your sanity and after you achieve your goals with automotive that lingering thought about mental deficiency doesn't go away it gets worse. It's an SOB of a business sector.

     

    2015 cy sounds about right. Maybe a lesser application initially. But as I've indicated, this is going to move with news not sales if we get a nod from the larger industries.
    16 May 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I doubt you'll be getting a line in 3 weeks unless the supplier already has all the purchased components on the floor, they have a s&*t load of trades guys waiting to hear "GO" and you are willing to pay a huge premium. Companies are not carrying purchased components on the shelf like they did. Build to order, JIT baby. 3 weeks isn't going to happen.

     

    3 months to qualification? Very tight but doable. But it depends on the qualification plans and how long it takes to get the line from the supplier.

     

    Anyway, I'm not looking for more capacity just yet. Automotive is a couple years out unless it starts with a lower volume application or as an option with lesser penetration like F just did in the US.
    16 May 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    One of the things I like best about automotive is that they'll force partnering to ensure scale. I'd vastly prefer to see somebody else pay the costs of ramping to automotive scale and living with compressed margins while Axion focuses its time and resources on smaller and more profitable market niches. An automotive win is the ultimate street cred for the technology. It's not the be all and end all for the bottom line. Trucking and rail will both pay a lot better.
    16 May 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    And they will introduce you to the right partners. Without such a level of support you're most often stuck watching on the wrong side of the fence through a knot hole. You know better than anyone. Relationships matter.
    16 May 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    D-inv-

     

    Concretely, you are absolutely correct. Some car mfgs. make lines of cars that don't sell big volume. Typically, these low volume cars are brand leaders.

     

    Try to think like a manager in a big company. Does s/he think, "I'd like to bet the brand on a very small company, with very little mfg. ability, with a revolutionary process of manufacture in one location, a manufacturing process they completed last month, with a revolutionary product that requires completely or largely rejiggering the electrical system in the product the battery will go in to"?

     

    No.

     

    No, or very, very few, mid level managers in a big company think that way.

     

    I'm pushing this perspective because I believe we are incredibly myopic when it comes to risk management in large organizations.
    16 May 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, It's even worse than that. Decisions like this have to be sold at numerous levels through the organization. It starts with the engineers and product teams but there are presentations at a few layers in the organization above them that also have to sign off. It's because the bottom layer is managing the individual program and the top layer is managing current and future strategy. New tech has to meet many needs before it's applied.

     

    And there is no compromise on Quality, Cost. Delivery. You can't launch billion dollar programs that require thousands of parts coming from all over the globe and have it come together without assuring these metrics.
    16 May 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    In addition to other statements, i.e. OEM news and stop/start with trucks especially, this stood out to me (although we had heard about the 25% increase in "energy" IIRC):

     

    "significant improvement in amperage available (greater than 25%), a decrease in the internal resistance of the battery (more than 25%) resulting in an ability to pull larger loads at speed."

     

    Just like Axion's attitude toward improvement and innovation. A bigger gap between ourselves and the competition.

     

    Something I am wondering about is the APÛ program for trucks and if that is continuing? Hopefully more flavor tomorrow and more clarity on other issues.
    15 May 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    I'll gladly cross APU off my wish list if I can replace it with stop start idle elimination and starter batteries for heavy use delivery fleets like FedEx and UPS.
    15 May 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Metro,
    Yes, I noticed that there was no comment about APU systems either. I see this as another one of Vani's assessments. He seems to know the truck industry well, knows where the PbC can fill a specific need that no one else can, and so is pushing these initiatives first. PbCs in an APU would be great, but there is already systems available that use other batteries. There really aren't other systems available for start-stop for trucks, or very few if that.
    My question is that it says that they need to produce bigger batteries for start-stop in trucks. I'm wondering, of the forms that they can already make in the factory do they have the lines to make these bigger batteries or would Axion need another battery manufacturer for this?
    15 May 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    The 30HT form factor Axion has been building for years is an ideal form factor for trucking. The applications that may eventually want a bigger form factor are rail and stationary.
    16 May 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping the consortium has a couple of industry bigger players who have experience off shore.

     

    Still wondering about where we stand on those RFP's that were close to maturity.

     

    And although people have unfortunate financial positions. I am still irked at what appears to me to be a very lukewarm vote on their own abilities and beliefs when management put in the level of funds that they did during the financing. I just wonder what their favored investments alternatives are, if not AXPW. They would have been better off not to have purchased anything as then I wouldn't have noticed. Makes me rethink purchasing more stock today. The last I'm going to write about this topic, but it continues to hit a nerve with me.
    15 May 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    Metro-
    I've been in their position when on the Board of a bio-medical start-up. Most people just don't have 50-100K$ to invest. The people with $$ invested $$, the workers on the Board put in what was likely serious $$ to them.

     

    I don't understand the lingering downers people are going through. I know we are not out of the woods yet. But, we are so much further along than we thought just several weeks ago.
    15 May 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc - My biggest issue is that I want to get excited, but every time I have allowed myself to get excited, its another 4 or 5 months before we really hear another word.

     

    Last year at this time, I had the impression that Axion was much further along in their manufacturing process. Maybe that's my fault, but looking at the language from the 10Qs and 10Ks, they don't really change that much when talking about improvement in manufacturing processes for making carbon electrodes. It appears the words of the quarterly reports really need to be parsed and direct questions as to changes in language asked.

     

    Ultimately however, my biggest worry is that we didn't get a strategic partner/investor and the funds that did invest are financier sharks ... when I looked into them, it appears that some/most of them were involved in the really bad financing that A123 took on last year.

     

    I want to see Axion succeed just as badly as anyone else on this board, but I want to know what's behind the curtain - both good and bad.
    15 May 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    metro, the board and officers put money up for a loan. I don't believe they will get much upside for this, so I wouldn't expect the officers to put up more than a token amount. As such, the big owners were the one who foot the bill.
    16 May 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "Still wondering about where we stand on those RFP's that were close to maturity."

     

    Metro, I understood the "close to maturity" comment as reference to status of bid preparation and submission, not bid selection.
    16 May 2013, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    Good point metro. I would like to see some more inside purchases too. If many of them went in big years back above $1 - then you'd think they would want to average in here near 2 bits. I know many Axionistas has gone that route.

     

    $1+ will not come any time soon with the share count soaring. Without averaging down it will be tough for anyone to be popping the champagne corks in the next year or two. Then again I'm sure there will be some lucky Axionista who just know discovers the stock and gets in on the ground floor only after having watched his index fund double the past few years. =)
    16 May 2013, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,
    I can't say I have a full understanding of the financing. If that is the case, I would offer my apologies.
    16 May 2013, 02:19 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    Don't get excited.

     

    Just realize that the investment is a good investment.

     

    Remember JP's elephant hunter graph of stock prices?

     

    Now, look at where we are.

     

    It still may not work...so don't get excited.

     

    Just feel OK with your ability to smell out an opportunity, sit tight, keep looking for companies that fit the elephant hunter's graph...and, next time don't buy stock in the company till they are where we are now.
    16 May 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    For me, it's part of the fun of investing to get excited about positive developments.

     

    Unfortunately, there wasn't really a way to know how far along Axion was by their statements ... except generally that they are a manufacturing company that will take a long time to create new processes and machines to create brand new products/electrodes.
    16 May 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "next time don't buy stock in the company till they are where we are now. "

     

    :-) If I live that long.
    16 May 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, 2 years ago I DID think that we were where we are now...

     

    Oh well...
    16 May 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Surprised there wasn't a blurb about:

     

    "discussions with a new top 5 vehicle manufacturer regarding partnering with them on advanced stage testing of a two battery system"
    15 May 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    In case I don't get to call in tomorrow, I have some questions after reading the 10Q:

     

    1) When does Axion find out if its phase II application has been funded for the SBIR grant?
    2) Can Axion comment on who the industry partners are for the compatible vehicle systems collaboration or how long they've been working with them?
    3) As I said above, what is the status of 3rd party testing for BMW and what is the status of fleet testing with BMW and others?
    4) Any idea on a timeline for agreement with alternative battery manufacturer to meet OEM's effort to not have sole source provider of PbC?
    5) As I asked above, can the larger batteries for start-stop in trucks be made with Axion current electrodes and battery lines or would the batteries need to be out sourced as well.
    6) An information on APU systems in trucks?
    7) Claiming 10x increase in PowerCube RFP and RFQ in first Q of 2013 as compared to 2012. Is that for 4th Q of 2012 or for full year?
    8) Can Axion name the companies it has entered into a consortium with for offshore sales, or will they be able to in the future?
    9) There is nothing in the report about HUB sales or prospects? Can Axion say anything about the status or interest in HUB sales?
    15 May 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Are you going to be on the call? I too have a long list, but I might use 1-2 of yours as well!

     

    I sure hope they have allowed lots of time for some of us to get back in the queue and ask more ...
    16 May 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    Yes, I was able to reschedule one of my experiments so I was in on the call. Got answers to some of my questions.

     

    1) We know we will have an answer about the SBIR phase II application by late July.
    2) We know that 3rd party testing is complete. Unfortunately, as I understood TG's response to my question, we also found out that BMW isn't moving forward with fleet testing until Axion has an agreement signed with the battery manufacturer they are in talks with. They are a couple months into the discussion, so the question will be how long will it take and, depending on who the manufacturer is, how much are they going to drag their feet on the process because they'd rather sell their own battery instead of the PbC?
    I should have asked more questions, but didn't want to monopolize the time, since it seemed we had a lot of callers from the new financing calling in, who obviously haven't read the APC, since they didn't understand the "standard risk disclosure" statement in the 10Q.
    I was happy to hear TG admit that the FLA battery contract was with East Penn. Like the work with BMW, it was one of those worst kept secrets, but it was good to see that he felt he could say their name now without repercussions.
    16 May 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I recognized your questions ... you were in early, so you got 2 :-)

     

    I'm not at all sure the East Penn reference wasn't a slip ...

     

    for all of us that hate the NDAs we can smirk a little at what he has to go through doing these Q&As and trying not to D :-)
    16 May 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    LabTech: "how much are they going to drag their feet on the process because they'd rather sell their own battery instead of the PbC? "

     

    I may be naive, but "with them" (guessing "them" is BMW), I think the prospective partner will not have a reason to drag - it's obvious that the end-use "customer" wants, and will have, something better. So the potential partner has reason to take the opportunity to gain "first mover" advantage.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    As I guessed last time, there was a time limit. I looked at my watch when you got on, Wtb, and hung up the phone. Sure enough ...

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I would agree with you, if the partner is a European battery maker or East Penn. If it's JCI or Exide, I think they will drag their feet to the bitter end, though I would think that BMW would know who's arm they could twist to get the batteries made in a reasonable time frame.
    16 May 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    If fleet testing was a significant hurdle, BMW wouldn't be pushing for a sole source solution. If you think about the dynamic from the perspective of another battery manufacturer, there's no incentive to spend money doing a deal with Axion without solid collateral assurances from the customer.

     

    If I were in Tom's shoes I'd be angling for an agreement with one of BMWs big European suppliers, a Continental, Moll or Banner. I'd also be very careful negotiating the terms because the first agreement will serve as the prototype for agreements with everyone else in the industry. You see the dynamic all the time in labor negotiations. The union calls a single company strike and the resolution flows over to all the other companies in the industry.

     

    Automakers are a funny lot. As long as everybody uses the same tools the status quo doesn't change. When one breaks away from the pack and implements clearly better technology, the others have to rush to catch up.

     

    With BMW pushing a solution to the sole source issue, the game is definitely afoot and Axion is in a very desirable position to earn fair recompense for a decade of effort and innovation.
    16 May 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    John, do we know who supplies the South Carolina factory with OEM batteries for BMW?

     

    Would they do a phased roll-out of PbC ISS systems, starting in the States and then extending to Europe?

     

    that could give Axion time to grow and extend to other strategic partners world-wide in an orderly fashion.
    16 May 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1102) | Send Message
     
    John- Good point on the first contract being the most important. The airline industry is the same way. The applecart was upset in 2000 when United gave their pilots a 30% payraise betting on the belief that everyone would follow. American gave their Flight Attendants a matching raise several months later. I was at Northwest at the time and mgmt there gave their mechanics a 30% rate improvement based on the belief and math that once three signed up everyone would simply use that template. My buddy did the math for NW and based on a schedule of when contracts were do and pilots being the most expensive labor group for an airline NW agreed quickly to the increase as they felt that they would be a savings over the next 24 months of hundreds of millions of dollars as they were the last major to pay their pilots.
    16 May 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin,
    Yes, that's my exact thought. We know they are in discussions with one major battery manufacturer for BMW, but TG said they were also talking to others. If the first company is in Europe, then either Axion has to worry about shipping electrodes across the sea, or setting up a new electrode facility in Europe. But if they are working with BMW's battery manufacturer for the plant in SC, then the shipping becomes a lot easier and we don't have a year to wait to get a new electrode facility up and running in Germany.
    So I'm still hoping for SC in the near future and Germany in the long term.
    16 May 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    I think BMW will focus on their own backyard first because its an easier place to bring their engineering muscle to bear on any problems. They might launch in the US first, but their big problem today is in Europe where they're selling lots of micro hybrids.
    16 May 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    John, Just like the Japanese typically launch new product in Japan for this reason. Plus Japan and Germany are less litigious. Give it to the Americans after it's more proven.
    16 May 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    I just can't see how shipping electrodes, even across the Atlantic, could be such a show-stopper. They're not that bulky, they don't weigh that much, they're not hazardous.... maybe they are somewhat fragile, but fer freak sake all manner of fragile things are shipped on the world's oceans everyday... does it add some expense and time, sure, but IJSTM they could still fit a heck of a lot of electrodes in a few shipping containers...and really, per item, how much cost would that add? If a 8'x8'x40' shipping container is roughly 2500 ft3, and even if say each electrode set is a full 1/2 ft3 then that's ~5000 (at least) electrodes per container-- and just 20 containers each month supports 100K cars per month.... certainly major production and something that would make us very happy.. So how much $ is 20x containers to Germany?
    16 May 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    Shipping electrodes for a few thousand batteries would probably not be a major problem. Shipping electrodes for hundreds of thousands of batteries per year would be a supply-chain nightmare. When you remember that Axion doesn't have production capacity for hundreds of thousands of batteries per year it's probably better to just enter into a joint venture for a new plant where the electrodes will be used.
    16 May 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    48, The costs are pretty prohibitive for automotive. You'd have to have all that inventory in the pipeline and most auto companies will not pay for it until it's assembled in the vehicle. Then you have to account for safety stock if you're that far away. Shut an assy plant down and it's millions of USD/hour. Final assy plants will not accept expendable packaging and the pack has to be ergonomic and approved for line side use in the plant. Remember the line runs at a fixed rate and getting the parts out of the pack, getting rid of empties and loading new full packs has to be planned in the operator cycle time. Remember no expendable pack and you can't send your returnables back to the US empty because it costs too much. So now you have to hire a repack operation to set up a loop with the plant. Called a flow through warehouse. Your cost. I could go on but just some flavor. Many of the new product launches I did, the returnable packaging was in some cases more or almost as expensive as the cost of the assembly equipment.
    16 May 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    48, I don't think the issue is transportation per se. Supply chain goals include full redundancy. What if something happens to Axion-PA? Strike, fire, flood, injunction that closes the plant, pollution crisis, earthquake, blizzard, roof collapse, sinkhole, nuclear accident (I count 5 reactors in PA, the closest is http://bit.ly/110DiEE), flu pandemic, yada yada. Maybe coconuts will be banned for importation because of unfair labor (USA! USA!), or some endangered palm louse. Black swans can poop anywhere.

     

    "For want of a nail....the kingdom was lost" is the supply chain ode. Imagine trying to explain why $100m of cars can't be sold because a few thousand dollars of coconuts are stuck in rural Pennsylvania.

     

    Perhaps $50-$100 of bio-carbon goes into a $100,000 car.
    16 May 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    Palm lice and swan poop!

     

    Rick, yer gonna give me nightmares if I can stop laughing.
    16 May 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    Thanks gents for all the answers, and I'll pipe down. I def see the need for second-source redundancy, just had a little trouble with the idea that any second electrode-plant would *necessarily* have to be on the other continent... highly preferable I'm sure, but it just seemed like *if needed*, that shipping of bulk inert electrodes, like any other part, *ought* to be straightforward, doable, and viable.
    16 May 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Sad personal story on black swan poop. For a year I worked on a 20 year, $20b iron ore project between Brazil and China. World Bank and the like were about to release the funds, and some petty, corrupt city councilor in Beijing decides to personally "privatise" the local MacDonalds. China gets temporarily ejected from the World Bank, all the other funders get cold feet, and the project dies. $20 BILLION deal lost because because of a random hamberger joint.

     

    This black swan poop was not on my list of contingencies. The project did happen about twelve years later, long after I had any interests, of course.
    16 May 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Rick, One good example. OK two.

     

    I helped install 2 lines in the US once from a plant in England. The plant went on strike and they were going to supply for a short period of time about 75 percent of GM's US volume until the US could tool up. This was when GM still had about 45% market share in the US. Went into the UK plant, cut the lines and put them on 4 chartered 747's. Short lead time to get everything converted from European 50 cycle to US 60 cycle different voltages. Thank God they didn't drop anything.

     

    You do not want to make a habit of doing things like they did years ago. Very high risk. I was hired contract at the time because none of the GM engineers wanted to be near it. I would be a more appropriate lamb.

     

    Oh, I also witnessed Valeo logistics hire a chartered plane to fly 400 USD of bearings from Italy to prevent a Chrysler plant from going down. Cost 110k USD. Met the plane at the airport with a check from the bank of their choice which was handed off before we got the 4 boxes. Opened the box. WRONG PART NUMBER. Rinse and repeat. I'm glad I witnessed that from afar.

     

    I did see a poop incident once but it was human. The customer was a little livid finding this in his pack set.
    16 May 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    RK, (and ii), just wow.
    16 May 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    DOE Selects Consortium to Develop Next-Generation Batteries for Automobiles

     

    http://bit.ly/18MCX01
    15 May 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (556) | Send Message
     
    I agree. It would have been nice to see management, in their new deals, participate in some meaningful way.

     

    While I am encouraged by the progress that is implied in the various statements, it’s clear that it’s all two birds in the bush stuff instead of one bird in hand type stuff. Looking at sales, there was only $268k of specialty/PbC sales in Q1, which is one of the worst quarterly performances of the past several years. Needless to say, we also had zero commercial sales again. BTW, where is the revenue from the Norfolk Southern sale? Weren't we expecting it in Q1?

     

    The "encouraging" statement that the stop/start trucking partner may come to accept the test results for BMW and thus cutting 1/3 of the time out would seem to imply that we're, at the absolute minimum, a year away from completing that testing program. If you have been around Axion at all, you know that's an optimistic guess. Anyway, I found that statement downright depressing.

     

    Going back to the 10x increase in RFP volume from the grid storage side seems to me more useful for those holding ZBB shares than Axion shareholders. I have little hope for sales in that segment but maybe I'm just being a curmudgeon.

     

    I'm looking for more substance from the conference call. I'm past the day when I'll look at some vaguely worded gobbledygook and see a glass half-full. Instead, I read it as if it were written by a deceitful lawyer trying to mislead without actually telling a lie.
    15 May 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    apm, the NS sale was booked in Q4 2012, since delivery was made then (and presumably accepted by NS), thus fullfilling Axion's revenue recognition accy requirements.

     

    I wasn't expecting any significant PbC sales, other than background dribbles, as significant sales almost certainly would have been for PCs, and there would have been a PR issued for those.

     

    I have written that a couple major catalysts would be PC orders/sales and BMW fleet testing. Well, we haven't gotten word of fleet testing outright yet, but the alternative supplier pursuit by the OEM to me means fleet testing is almost a certainty. And that is hugely positive. Nothing written in stone yet, but if the stk was worth 24 cents at 4pm today, IMO it's worth a lot more than that now.
    16 May 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    I too read the 1/3rd time saving from the BMW as meaning "years from now" since we have already been with BMW for many a year.
    16 May 2013, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2250) | Send Message
     
    I sold my meager holdings of AXPW a day or two ago. Why? Simple: the stock is boring the hell out of me. If and when I see something exciting happening on the chart I'll rebuy. Until then I'll maintain the custom APC search engine and read the APC's, and genuinely wish all of you good luck.
    16 May 2013, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    Takes guts to sell right before the CC. Then again I have known a few who don't want to know anything at all about fundamentals. They only trust charts, volume, and the price. They tell me all the information can be synthesized into those things thus the details are exogenous.
    16 May 2013, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Once an Axionista, always an Axionista, Bang.

     

    D
    16 May 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    I, like Carlos, read the report as talking about the hybrid car program, not S/S.
    That would be GM wanting Axion to find a second source supplier. I would assume that would be East Penn, but it could be others. I also suspect that whoever is able to make the battery would be allowed access to the carbon sheeting process upon Axion's failure to provide that product.

     

    I know this process will take awhile to complete but it is really very good news. If GM wants that many batteries I'm very happy.

     

    If, on the other hand, Axion has mixed up the terms micro hybrid and hybrid I am still happy. Any time a biggy is worried about a small timer like Axion, something big is going on.
    BTW- GM is having a very difficult time selling its e-assist cars. Seems the world doesn't like paying a high price for a very small gas savings. A cheaper battery would help them alot.
    16 May 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    "A cheaper battery would help them a lot. "

     

    Not to mention reduction/elimination of cooling systems and leaks, the need for a "fortress" around the batteries, special warnings and training for fist responders, ...

     

    A win all around ISTM.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    HTL, "Fist responders"? Careful where you're driving my friend! :))

     

    Remember that the magic number for voltage is about 60 V or less before you start adding all kinds of safety requirements. This is not to minimize what it takes to integrate higher voltages but is a number chosen by the industry as safer for humans.
    16 May 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    I can't make the call today. Hope some of you will ask questions that help us understand Axions growth plans better.
    16 May 2013, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Now that there seems to be progress on the front, I am not happy about the terms of the convertible note financing. It gives the holders the sole discretion of converting all due amounts into common stock at a 0.264 per share. If the stock were to rally into, say, the 40s from here, you can be damn sure that the CB holders will exercise their right to convert, and you will see dozens of millions of AXPW stock flood the market...
    16 May 2013, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    Amouna> small company markets are funny things because they follow a predictable pattern. During the early stages there are always more people who want to sell than want to buy. The result is supply side pressure that drives the price down. When business develops to a point where the watchers decide to climb off the fence and enter the game, the supply and demand balance shifts.

     

    Over the last few years there has been an effectively unlimited supply of stock because we had the big uglies. That stock has been largely absorbed by the Axionistas and other investors who take a long term view and are unlikely to flip out for pennies.

     

    Since the big uglies are gone the stock to feed a rational market has to come from somewhere. The financing should feed about 40 million shares into the market over the next year. That would have been a huge problem in 2009 when the market only absorbed 3.5 million shares from the sell side. It would have been difficult last year when the market absorbed about 45 million shares from the sell side. If the business dynamic is changing, and it certainly seems to be, the new supply won't be enough to hurt the market but it will be enough to help avoid dizzying volatility.

     

    Every market needs both buyers and sellers. Most Axionistas are not going to be sellers anytime soon. I'd hate the financing if we were looking at another 12 to 24 months of silent suffering. If we are in fact entering a new stage the market will need the new shares to function properly.
    16 May 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the detailed answer John.

     

    So now that most of the negativity is out, we can (hopefully) look forward to an appreciation of the stock price in anticipation of PR regarding Axion's industry relationships, with occasional spikes in the volume of stock flooding the market as indication that CB holders are consolidating their gains...
    16 May 2013, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    It will all depend on the news cycle and when things happen. The news that an automaker is pushing a sole source supply solution is the realization of my fondest dream because its proof positive that our baby has graduated with flying colors.

     

    While everybody in the battery industry could afford to say "go away kid you bother me" when Axion was trying to sell a new technology, nobody can ignore the fact that an automaker is saying "we want this technology and If you won't do a deal with its owner we'll find somebody else who will."

     

    Salesmanship is great, but automaker support is far better.
    16 May 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the numbers, Axion spent 64$ on translation. I am willing to speculate it is from German to English, and that the OEM is probably the one carmaker based in Munich ;)
    16 May 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    Haha, nice catch Amouna!
    16 May 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    Yup, and if the stock were to stay below that level come payments due then Axion has to pay in extra stock as a penalty. That creates the wrong kind of incentives for those who want quick arbitrage and/or an increasingly larger stake in a company who likely will need further financing within 12-16 months.
    16 May 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    As HTL pointed out, there are provisions against short selling in the deal.
    16 May 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Ranma/HTL - where was this pointed out at? TIA
    16 May 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    page 30 of the filing:
    "t) Trading in Common Stock .

     

    (i) Each Buyer hereby agrees, severally and not jointly, for so long as such Buyer owns any Notes, such Buyer shall not (x) maintain a Net Short Position (as defined below) or (y) together with any of its affiliate Buyers, sell shares of Common Stock of the Company received by such Buyer pursuant to a Company Conversion (as defined in the Notes) during any Trading Day in an amount, in the aggregate, exceeding 15% of the composite aggregate share trading volume as reported on Bloomberg (as defined in the Warrant) of the Common Stock measured at the time of each sale of securities during such Trading Day. "
    16 May 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning!!!

     

    It is quite possible that today some investors (those who stepped off the train) seek the black dot in the white handkerchief. In my opinion everything runs smoothly and new options are on the table, for example: Trucks with Start-Stop or Trucks with APU and Start-Stop or Trucks with that and much more.

     

    Today will be great-Carlos
    16 May 2013, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    WOW!!!

     

    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results for 2013:
    http://yhoo.it/10tolyY

     

    Here I am, forever:

     

    ...Chairman and CEO Thomas Granville commented, "Closing this funding was a focal point for us over the past six months. There were various alternatives and offers that were available to us, but we felt it was important to obtain a funding package that fit with investors that shared in our vision and had faith in our story. We feel we have found that audience and we look forward, to moving forward, together with them."

     

    Nice to read that.-Carlos
    16 May 2013, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    More WOW!!

     

    Other good news:

     

    "And our class 8 truck initiative doesn't end with ePower, we have partnered with an historically large, and well respected, industry OEM in order to better commercialize our two-battery solution to the stop/start technology in the large truck market. We will be providing more information on this program in the coming months."

     

    This will the year to AXION-PbC Thech.-Carlos
    16 May 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2305) | Send Message
     
    PR just came across email.

     

    Granville concluded, "Of course we remain committed to our other defined markets as well – hybrid locomotives, hybrid passenger vehicles for the stop/start market and PowerCube applications of all sizes, from 10-kilowatt applications all the way up to several megawatt applications. Partially because of the success we have had with our onsite PowerCube, and our Washington Naval Yard installation, we have seen a dramatic increase in RFPs, RFQs and just general requests for help from those seeking to employ energy storage. These opportunities include renewable, utility, industrial and residential customers. As a result, in order to keep pace, we will be adding to our sales and engineering resources in the coming months. Quite honestly, we have needed to move in this sales growth direction for at least the last two quarters and now that we have the capital to implement that roadmap - it's full speed ahead."

     

    Sounds like TG has been reading the concentrators last night.

     

    Is your seatbelt fastened?
    16 May 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    This is also impressive:

     

    POWER CUBE IN ALL SIZES

     

    ...PowerCube applications of all sizes, from 10-kilowatt applications all the way up to several megawatt applications. Partially because of the success we have had with our onsite PowerCube, and our Washington Naval Yard installation, we have seen a dramatic increase in RFPs, RFQs and just general requests for help from those seeking to employ energy storage. These opportunities include renewable, utility, industrial and residential customers.

     

    With such good news, affirm my projection I did two years ago: sell my shares when they are at $50.00

     

    Have a nice day-Carlos
    16 May 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    05/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up much(?) later).
    # Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 21600, Vol 370415, AvTrSz: 5612
    Min. Pr: 0.2390, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2446
    # Buys, Shares: 20 108750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2450
    # Sells, Shares: 46 261665, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2444
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.41 (29.4% “buys”), DlyShts 78250 (21.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.90%

     

    Of the 17 peeks I took at the bid changes, 7 were increases and 8 were decreases (some just results of being “uncovered”). This was less bullish than in the last few days. Of the 15 ask changes I viewed, 6 were increases (some due to “uncovering”) and 7 were decreases, again much less bullish than the lat few days.

     

    Regardless, VWAP has held up: $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372 and $0.2446 over the 5-day span.

     

    Daily short sales is still ab it elevated, but somewhat lower. This seems to be due to less participation, as best I could tell, by the newer cadre of market-makers that appeared recently.

     

    Average trade size did move up again and is in what I believe is the mid-range of retail. Buy percentage dropped below it's averages again, supporting the less bullishness assessment of the bid/ask activity.

     

    All this is reflected in my original inflection point calculations, which weakened again, this time in six of six periods. 5 of the six periods increased weakness in the 5-day change and 6 of six had increased weakness in the average 5-day rate of change. However, the newer version disagrees with 5 of six periods showing a reduced weakness and 5 of six periods improving in the five-day change and six of six improving in the average change over five days.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    To liven up the day, recommend reading the following article:

     

    Ten Economic Risks of Fossil Fuels
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 May 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (798) | Send Message
     
    Sorry:

     

    http://bit.ly/yE6bt4
    16 May 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    Exciting news and possibilities

     

    However lets not forget to ask the tough question today in the CC

     

    There has been a pattern to wow us just before conference calls in order to mellow things out. We wake up later wondering why we did not get our questions properly answered
    16 May 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    dlmca,

     

    Also if someone can ask them why they committed such small funds (with the exception of Averill) during the last capital raise, that would be great!

     

    thanks
    A
    16 May 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    Really hard to buy shares today... can only imagine the difficulty after the CC.
    16 May 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    Axion---if you read this in time, please have Vani speak on the call about your biz development and mkting efforts. Sales is the weak point of the company, so keep addressing that like you did in the PR.
    16 May 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Late start: Boo.

     

    Joe P making a surprise appearance? :-)
    16 May 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    - strategic partner on SBIR grant last month
    - cultivating relationships with lead industry to eventually ship "an electrode that will make their batteries better"
    - probable several megawatts storage project in 2013
    - weekly requests from other firms for PbC quotes on to price hypothetical products

     

    investment thesis still intact... happy as a clam to have some more rope to work with after the last round of funding. hopefully longer than chuck trago warns ;)
    16 May 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    First question from a securities company. Not a private investor!
    16 May 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Cubes in 9 to 12 months. OY
    Axion has completed work in yard slug but other vendors have not.

     

    Second questioner is from Blackrock!
    16 May 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    Berkowitz from BlackRock!
    16 May 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    I google'd a report that said he was retiring as of March 31, 2012.
    http://bit.ly/13zfflC
    Though that probably just means he gets to avoid the more chore-some activities of managing assets.

     

    And from this article, speaking on acquiring small startup hedge funds:
    "They can traffic in markets and in stocks that aren’t covered by a multitude of analysts. They might be looking at stocks that aren’t covered at all ... They can operate in inefficient marketplaces, and where you have inefficient marketplaces, you have better returns."
    http://bit.ly/MFJFw1

     

    Know any marketplaces like that?
    16 May 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    See DRich, NSC "Serial Killers".
    16 May 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1159) | Send Message
     
    Why is the price tanking in the middle of a positive CC? My bottom feeder order for another 10k at .255 just got filled.
    16 May 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    I think it was the way the call started, with Chuck's conservative remarks. When I heard it I immediately thought some people would take advantage of the morning price rise, and reloaded my ticker. Sure enough, someone did sell.

     

    Also, it's during midday weakness and most buyers were listening to the call. So some sell orders got through. I think the price should recover over the day.
    16 May 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    I also felt very positively about the call.

     

    However, IMO it seemed as though the price went down as soon as Berkowitz laughed (somewhat derisively, I thought) at one of the answers TG gave (not the last question, but the first Berkowitz question, which TG seemed hesitant and somewhat unable to address). I'm sure someone will go back and re-listen and pick up on whether my interpretation of the tone of the laughter is accurate.
    16 May 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    just the usual fading of the small rally, if incredibly consistent history is a good guide
    16 May 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I didn't think that was a derisive laugh at all. I thought the laugh was the kind you give when someone gives the right answer.

     

    The question was how much of the market share TG would be satisfied with and TG said 'All of it'.

     

    If we're the best solution for a particular application then we should NEVER be ok with losing out. Not now, not ever.

     

    D
    16 May 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    "Why is the price tanking in the middle of a positive CC? "

     

    Prove of the pudding is in the eating and there was no pudding, only more allusions to great things to come.
    16 May 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    D. McH.---- I wasn't referring to the laugh after the "all of it" remark, but rather one that came after TG attempted to answer Berkowitz' first question. However, if no one else picked up on it, perhaps it's of no concern.
    16 May 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    TG didn't field the question very well, but to be fair, he got surprised with a question from 2011 slides. At the end of it, I think the overall impression was neutral. I think Berkowitz was doing some last minute review by looking at the slides, and noticed a 2013 date on page 24. And hey, it's 2013. The takeaway for us is simply that BlackRock is/was considering adding back its position.
    16 May 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    Berkowitz laughed at him on the last call or the call last year. I wouldn't read much into it.
    16 May 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    Last year Berkowitz owned several million shares and his choice was to either increase or reduce his position. This year he doesn't own any so the only choice is to wait a while longer or start building a new position. By the way, why do you care? You told us a week ago that you'd sold out. Former stockholders don't generally troll around forums like this one unless they're trying to stir up trouble.
    16 May 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    I'm not stirring up trouble, go back and listen. and I did sell out.
    16 May 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    Several stockholders with class have sold and then gone away. Those who sell and then hang around to continue complaining get boring very quickly.
    16 May 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    I took the giggle as two old chums who have talked before without others listening in. Kind of like, let's see if I can get Tom to take the bait this time and give me the scoop for all to hear. But when others are surely parsing every word, the giggle, in advance of a politically correct answer he assumed TG would give, doesn't seem too strange.
    16 May 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    It would indeed be nice to see Blackstone come in again and help put a floor in the price. I agree that Berkowitz's presence on the call at least can be seen as kicking the tires.

     

    Also on another note, our new I-Bank "Maxim" just updated their stock coverage page. Alas, no mention of Axion yet.

     

    Although they do provide coverage for many of their other clients so maybe Axion will get picked up down the road.

     

    http://bit.ly/YZHdYg
    16 May 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    You can bet your bottom dollar that analyst coverage was part of the detailed discussions with Maxim before the deal was closed. That being said, most investment bankers won't publish research on sub-$3 stocks, so research is not just around the bend.
    16 May 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    Then maybe a mention in the "spotlight companies" section at the bottom of the link with the other pennies =)
    16 May 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Axion's testing part on OTR for NSC is finished.
    16 May 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Really? I thought he said PSU is STILL doing testing, and we're assisting.

     

    Did I get that wrong?

     

    Though who knows what assisting means ... a phone call once a month or grabbing those kids by the neck and making them do some wind sprints.

     

    Maybe we can hire that out of work Rutgers Bball coach for a little consulting gig at NSC and PSU ... I bet he comes cheap these days ...
    16 May 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    I thought that PSU was working in parallel with Axion to see just how many cycles the PbC would tolerate?

     

    I would expect that in the fullness of time a definitive announcement would be made as to the number of deep discharge cycles the PbC could tolerate. Apparently the project has been going on for a very looooooooong time without failure.

     

    Of course, its not in Axions best interest for the PbC to go on forever!!!!!!!!

     

    However from the grid standpoint several 100k deep discharge cycles might just save their bacon as "green solutions" continue to receive funding.
    16 May 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    What he said was that Axion has finished all of its battery tests for the OTR engine but that PSU was continuing to do some. So you are both right! :-)
    And if I recall correctly, we have seen information in the past suggesting that PSU isn't just doing testing for NS using the PbC, but is also testing other batteries. So their continued testing could be part of that to show comparison data.
    16 May 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    From the transcript.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Question
    Like I said, does the data on that transfer over to the long haul locomotives or is that order already in those batteries?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    Yeah. Some of it will, of course. But we’ve continued testing for the over-the-road unit, so that there are different kinds of test. The yard switcher is an all electric. The over-the-road is a hybrid.

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    A hybrid.

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    Yeah, so – yes there is information there that we’ll be useful, but there is independent testing that’s required over-the-road and we’ve done that and continue to do that in conjunction with – actually we’ve completed everything on our end here, but we continue to work with them on their testing at Penn State."
    16 May 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    Not impressed by getting cutoff after my first question.
    But I was impressed by the progress.
    16 May 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, They are clearly cutting back on catering to the questions put forth by individual investors. I've noticed this tapering back the last few quarters.
    16 May 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2661) | Send Message
     
    ii - There was a quarter a year or two ago where no calls were taken by an apparent glitch.
    16 May 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    SM
    Actually I believe there was a glitch twice in a row.

     

    II
    There were only 2 questions not by individual investors. I'm ticked about losing 10 min. but I don;t fault their question selection. Although I did think the first guy was a bit long.
    16 May 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    There were two at the start, then a 3rd later on from some company (don't know if it was finance related).
    16 May 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I recall that quarter. But on average the number of questions answered for non fund affiliated callers has been declining.
    16 May 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Since the screwup, I believe I've been on every call, and I have not noticed a cutback in "our" calls. And they went at least 1.5 hours at least once, and maybe more ... which is part of why I was so annoyed that they didn't today.
    16 May 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    But next time some of us might want to create a shared (non-public) Google document to review our questions if we suspect we're getting ducked because they know just how hard the questions are going to be
    16 May 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Would it be possible to create a SA concentrator devoted to questions for Axion management?

     

    That way the questions could be laid out for all to see and then to be "LIKED" or not or maybe an alternate question presented. That way Axion management could easily see what questions were utmost in the minds of Axionistas minds.

     

    The SA system is brilliant and I wish I was a shareholder.

     

    The system restricts a subscriber to vote only once so the rigging of a question is somewhat restricted.
    16 May 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3426) | Send Message
     
    I think Maya used to do this. Anyhow I haven't seen too much of him here on the concentrator (which he started). I assume he has sold some shares. Sadly I think many that follow him may have done so as well. Hopefully we can get the band back together after this somewhat upbeat CC.
    16 May 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: "we suspect we're getting ducked because they know just how hard the questions are going to be"

     

    In which case I would want dump either management or my position ASAP. I don't want to be in a company with which there seems to be an adversarial relationship.

     

    If TG sees us as the counter-party in a negotiation, he needs to ... well you know.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    Albert: the company could host a section on their web site. (CPST) has an "Ask Management" section. They answer questions as time permits, usually a couple of months (I wish it were faster, but ...).

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5486) | Send Message
     
    wtb, that is a very good idea.
    17 May 2013, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    "In which case I would want dump either management or my position ASAP. I don't want to be in a company with which there seems to be an adversarial relationship."

     

    Which puts us in a tough position if we don't want to give up our position...
    17 May 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    the bastard step-child metroneanderthal's call did not get taken. don't know how many others were in cue with me.
    16 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I was in queue with you. I wanted to point out that >25% increase in amperage and internal resistance and ask whether metrics like that would be part of the SBIR phase II application and what the implications are for other applications beyond ePower and other testing that is currently in progress and/or has been performed to date.

     

    Just a little slow on the trigger, I guess. Still was happy with the other questions asked.

     

    D
    16 May 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie,
    Was going to ask something similar as I am curious if anyone besides ePower has tested the step change battery.
    16 May 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Damn annoying ... cut off at an hour.

     

    Has not been the case in the past. More pennies counted I suppose
    16 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    WTB, That being said the main body of this presentation was more informative than any other I've been involved with. When he ripped of BMW as the automotive concern "making introductions" I almost fainted! So not normal compared to in the past.

     

    And I'm glad it's not GM. They'd be more interested in how to steal the tech.
    16 May 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    I missed what TG said about BMW. What did he say?
    16 May 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    iindelco... do you mean " 'tipped off' BMW as the automotive concern..." ?
    16 May 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    I thought he said something in answer to the SBIR grant stuff that seems to indicate GM is still "kicking the tires" ...

     

    maybe heard what I wanted to, or GM is taking any "Free money" they can get, but did anyone else get a warmer feeling about GM's interest?
    16 May 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    48, I intended to say "ripped off" which in my slag means basically "tipped off" but not changing ones speech at all to place emphasis.

     

    Futurist, TG indicated BMW is the automaker that is introducing Axion to some of their current battery suppliers.
    16 May 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    wtb < I had the same sense of GM involvement with SBIR grant. He projected a major auto OEM other than BMW.
    16 May 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    WTB, I have no problem with GM being one of the automotive concerns looking at the PbC. I just would rather have them not be the lead or dominant one.
    16 May 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,
    GM's involvement in the SBIR grant is another one of those "worse kept secrets" that is required, I'm assuming, by NDAs. Ever since Brainwish did his FOIA to find out that GM was the company on the original DOE grant application, we've know that they were working with GM on, what looks to be, a mild hybrid system. Unfortunately, I think that also means that, until the SBIR research is done, we won't be seeing this system on any of GMs vehicles in the next few model years.
    16 May 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    BMW took the lead dog position four years ago and with them going to suppliers with Axion in tow I don't expect the dynamic to change. It's fun when you have a BMW toss a couple of suppliers into a room and tell them they can't come out without a solution.

     

    Its particularly fun when your guy has decades of labor contract negotiation experience to fall back on.
    16 May 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    They lost 10 min by being late and are out of time.
    16 May 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    froge

     

    My memory is that they are always late in getting started.

     

    Other boards that I have been associated with have taken a couple of minutes to have a spot of sherry before entering into the fray.

     

    Sounded quite positive all round to me.
    16 May 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    All those tough questions spooked them
    16 May 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    RyanBell
    "All those tough questions spooked them "
    No they answered all the questions asked with good answers.
    Not the immediate income I hoped for but solid answers.

     

    I don't see them as "Spooked" at all.
    16 May 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    I think there were 3 people from different funds here. Did anyone catch the name of the funds besides BlackRock?
    16 May 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    Early on, TG slipped and admitted what we all surmised that East Penn is who we're supplying on the flooded contract.

     

    And he ducked the visibility question to tell me something I already knew about it not being where the future real profits will be
    16 May 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    True, but he also made it sound like they could have more contracts in this area if they wanted them. They seem to figure that making a gross profit of only 10%, or less, on FLAs isn't where they want to be. The fact that he was willing to name East Penn makes me think he's not worried about the contract going away any time soon.
    16 May 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Lab
    East Penn is building a new plant for flooded LA. It has a 5 year time to opening. I suspect we've got at least a 5 year customer.
    16 May 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    30 minutes for calls but obviously more in the queue, including me.

     

    Overall I think quite a positive Q and CC.

     

    I will buy more based on what I have heard.
    16 May 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    I wish someone asked TG to follow up more on the status of BMW. It's clear that they have gotten a design win (right?) and are partnering with the current BMW battery supplier. They have got to know when that business will bear fruit and at the very least what model year to expect.
    16 May 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,
    From what TG said in answer to my question, I would assume that we don't necessarily have a design "win" yet, but that they are planning to move forward with fleet testing, but only after Axion and the battery manufacturer come to an agreement, so that there is no longer a sole source issue. As IINDelco would say, this is just the way auto works and the pace they move at.
    16 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if fleet testing is dependent on a second supplier. What makes you think so? After all, to BMW it's only spare change to buy batteries - not like the cars are finished after them. If you were BMW, why hold off on testing just to wait for the second source, which is probably virtually assured of. They fleet tested hydrogen fuel cells for crying out loud :)
    16 May 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, It's a natural progression if you think about it. The Fleet testing is a last leg to catch anything that might occur in the field. Risk mitigation. You also have risk on Q.C.D. Move that forward and reduce the risk by establishing a relationship between Axion and a long standing respected supplier. Also the weathered supplier can industrialize this far better than Axion can. This is not to say Axion has done a bad job on the product side but old goats expertise in automation will move the program forward in a big step on many many fronts.
    16 May 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3091) | Send Message
     
    iinde--Ranma's Q is a huge one: will BMW require an acceptable manufacturing agreement before they start fleet testing? Time matters a whole lot to AXPW. End-to-end would take a lot longer than overlap, I would think.

     

    Your thoughts and guesses much appreciated as always.
    16 May 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    I think fleet testing is more of a formality than an issue at this point. Another battery manufacturer has no incentive to spend money if the only carrot is a fleet test. We're I on the battery manufacturers team I'd be looking for large rock solid commitments from the customer before making that leap of faith.
    16 May 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I if I had to guess I would say no. The fleet testing would be more driven by the timing of the program(s) than the supply side concern. However given where they are right now in testing I'm sure getting the PbC battery to a level where QCD are on their way to being assured is a program deliverable.
    16 May 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,
    "I don't know if fleet testing is dependent on a second supplier. What makes you think so?"
    TG's response to my question about the 3rd party testing said that the next stage in the process was getting past the "sole source" issue for battery manufacturing, and alluded to the fact that this was the reason why it was in the 10Q as the "New Phase" and not comments about fleet testing being the next step.
    16 May 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    At least we know it's BMW who is pushing the second-source issue and leading them to partner with own of BMW's established existing suppliers.
    16 May 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2435) | Send Message
     
    That was a highlight for me
    16 May 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    My unasked question was exactly what constituted a second source.

     

    By that did it mean a second supplier of PbC batteries or did it mean a second source of electrodes or did it mean a second source of carbon for the electrodes OR all of the above.
    16 May 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    I wished the first caller asked that, but when he said that Axion was supplying electrodes to other battery makers, TG didn't bother to correct him.
    16 May 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    I believe that a second source solution will require an electrode facility at somebody else's battery plant. My best guess is that a solution will require a plant specific joint venture that includes Axion as a key partner but protects the supply chain if something bad happens to Axion. In the most likely scenario Axion will take a carried interest in the new facility while the manufacturing partner fronts the capital investment.
    16 May 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    John, I second your belief.

     

    It's just common sense in one aspect. You don't want to ship high volume electrodes around that are almost the size of the full battery by the time you package and protect them. It's expensive to ship things multiple times. Only one of many factors but a big one.
    16 May 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Okay.

     

    But what constitutes an electrode facility?

     

    There are obviously several bits and bobs that go into the building of the electrodes beyond the Carbon.

     

    Does an electrode facility include the carbon sheeting step or not?

     

    Not wanting to be abstruse or obstructive but its important to know if the carbon sheeting is to be treated as a component or a critical step to the enterprise.

     

    Could not the carbon sheeting still be produced in house and provided to all electrode fabricators world wide thus protecting the Axion IP?
    16 May 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    I think a facility will need the capacity to do it all. It's worth noting that the 10-Q specifically talks about the new sheeting process as being suitable for duplication anywhere in the world.
    16 May 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    Albert: the goal should be *no* single point of system failutre. That means redundancy for every step.

     

    Remember what happened to the Japanese auto production when the tsunami's hit? Cars couldn't be made in the needed quantities.

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I think you are correct, long term, but wonder if this will be done in stages? If I'm correct, that fleet testing won't be done until there is a contract with BMW's battery manufacturer, then I could see a process where they would ship electrodes from New Castle, in the short term for things like fleet testing, while working on opening an electrode facility in someone else's battery plant before you would go forward with a design win. IMHO
    16 May 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Right on HTL. Geographic redundancy takes care of things like flooding, political situations, currency swings etc. Another part of the delivery assurance equation.

     

    Honda has been exporting vehicles for a few years now from Japan where they lose money on every vehicle because they didn't manage this well and the huge shift in the USD/Yen relationship hung them.
    16 May 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    LabTech> I think you're way overestimating the importance of fleet testing. Automakers learn about batteries in the lab. The only thing they'll learn from fleet testing is how the battery works in a fully integrated system like an automobile. They may have already done enough in vehicle work to know those answers.

     

    Focusing on the sole source issue tells me they're farther along than most of us believe because a battery manufacturer won't screw around with forging a new technology partnership if the only carrot is a fleet test.
    16 May 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1102) | Send Message
     
    Wouldn't the point of a fleet test be to simply show at this point that both mfgs groups (Axion) and Battery Co A, B,C to actually make a scheduled production schedule at a certain quality.
    16 May 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    Fleet tests are about system performance. You don't get to run at rate and on schedule proof until a preliminary design win. That's why design wins are multi-year affairs that start small and build over time.
    16 May 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10153) | Send Message
     
    Also Mr Holty it's a last chance to take statistically relevant groups of vehicles and test them as a complete system in various markets under the worst conditions to act as a last verification that nothing was missed. Lot's of caution when things cost tens of thousands of dollars and you're building hundreds of thousands of them and some day millions.

     

    This is for program testing that is actually in the future business plans. As I've mentioned before there are other reasons for fleet testing as well.
    16 May 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Just a judgement call on my part but if I were BMW I'd hold-off on fleet testing until I could get product from the source that would feed my factory. Kill two birds with the same dollars. Check out the technology one last time and compare production batteries for Quality Control.
    16 May 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    To do that you have to overcome the battery manufacturers reluctance to invest money when the only carrot is a fleet test. If it was me making the decision I'd want a lot more than warm fuzzies.
    16 May 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... You are probably right. I just enjoy thinking about different scenarios. I mean, incorporating your argument, BMW could approach a battery OEM by telling them they WILL use the Axion PbC because BMW is satisfied with Axion's process and their own testing. Now it is up to them to prove they can produce it by installing a electrode fab line and outfit a test fleet. Any kinks in the battery OEM process will be worked out during out vehicle testing.

     

    I don't know ... just daydreaming and wishing things would just get on with it.
    16 May 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1780) | Send Message
     
    John,
    "Focusing on the sole source issue tells me they're farther along than most of us believe because a battery manufacturer won't screw around with forging a new technology partnership if the only carrot is a fleet test"
    Agreed. The more I think about it, the more I realize how much more important this announcement was than an announcement on fleet testing would have been. As it says in the 10Q, Axion has entered into a "New Phase", which I take to mean that they've moved beyond testing the battery and are now trying to put the things in place to meet BMW's production requirements. Yes, things could still go wrong with future fleet testing after that. Look at the HUB, they thought they had everything ready for roll out and now, 4 months later, we are hearing they are having problems with integration of the electronics. Or look at A123 and Chevy. They announced that they had a design win with Chevy for their Spark, and then found out that Chevy was only going to make a max of 2000 of them a year and sell them only in CA. That being said, the fact that BMW has gone to their battery supplier and said "we want this, please work with them to make it happen" is far more important to Axion than the results of more testing.
    As to who that battery manufacturer is, and in what country, I'm still hoping for one in the US that supplies the SC plant, since that would not require the building of a new line(s) somewhere else, along with training new workers, certifying the lines, and everything else that would be involved in a new facility in another country. BMW makes several of their hybrid lines in SC. To me, it just seems like an easier choice in the short run, to get all the kinks out.
    16 May 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (2017) | Send Message
     
    One quibble: a Chevy is no BMW :)
    16 May 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4825) | Send Message
     
    >Ranma ... If it is put together by an automaker it is just a car and it is a soul sucking industry that operates pretty much the same everywhere regardless of the price tag.
    16 May 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    LabTech> I'm not 100% sure that we would have heard about BMW doing fleet testing, particularly if they told Axion no news release. Even a 200 car fleet test wouldn't be a big enough sale to be a mandatory reporting event. If the customer says "head down and mouth shut" and nobody can point to a regulation and say "but we gotta disclose this" the default answer is the customer wins.

     

    I've not heard any rumors that BMW has done their fleet testing, but it certainly could have been done under a cone of silence even if Axion wanted to shout from the rooftops.
    16 May 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3442) | Send Message
     
    John, that makes sense to me, after all, how often do automakers publicize their myriad fleet tests? How often are we hearing about fleet tests for anything else? Admittedly, I certainly don't follow the industry nearly as much as some, so I may just be unaware, but there have got to be zillions of different technologies and devices, from myriad sources and companies, being tested in vehicles all the time... What kind of chaos would it be if every one of them got to splash out PR every time something went into test?
    16 May 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    As one with no experience whatever with auto OEMs, my thoughts here are pretty much speculation. That said, if I was sitting in auto OEM decisonmaker position, I would not consider suggesting to an existing parts supplier that they work with a new third party to work out a solution to single provider risks for a new battery product unless I was highly confident my firm had definite plans to use the product. It is very difficult to see how such confidence could exist without fleet testing results in hand.

     

    I tend to think if Axion and the BMW battery supplier can strike an agreement, a design win would be awarded shortly after the agreement is signed.
    16 May 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2811) | Send Message
     
    Probably no fleet testing as yet.
    Q4 2012 transcript from Mar 25 2013
    http://bit.ly/16VgYmK

     

    Question
    "So I was curious whether or not fleet testing with anybody had started and whether that new Asian automaker that we talked about six months ago has started some kind of in-car testing?

     

    Thomas Granville - Chief Executive Officer
    That was the fleet testing that we were referring to and that has not happened to this point. We continue to work with them and are working with them and expect to continue to work with them in the future, but their schedule didn't quite dovetailed with what they thought it was going to.

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    So BMW as well nobody has started fleet testing yet?

     

    Thomas Granville - Chief Executive Officer
    BMW has done in-car testing, yes.

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    Right, but of small volumes I believe is what you said in the past?

     

    Thomas Granville - Chief Executive Officer
    Yes exactly, exactly."

     

    As of a few weeks ago no fleet testing had been done.
    17 May 2013, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30430) | Send Message
     
    "Fleet testing" is a very mushy term, particularly when there has been vehicle testing and almost four years of in house and third party laboratory testing. The purpose of fleet testing is to evaluate overall system performance under harsh conditions. If you got great results from a small or perhaps large number of vehicles, you might decide that a formal fleet test was over the top.

     

    The only battery fleet test I've seen reported was when BMW did a side by side comparison of AGM and flooded batteries in micro hybrids. I think work on the sole source issue is a pretty clear indication that BMW thinks it has all the information it needs for a production decision.

     

    You can't force a partnership between suppliers when a fleet test is the only carrot.
    17 May 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, froggey.
    17 May 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like