Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
  • Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 300 comments
    May 16, 2013 4:20 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits - long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization - create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 5/10/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 5/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (300)
Track new comments
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone got the link to the old Concentrator where the single source issue was first raised?
    16 May 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    IIRC Iindelco has been talking about that issue since he first joined our merry band. I don't know that there is a first discussion per se.
    16 May 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking it was iindelco, but I thought maybe you had mentioned it too, JP. Thanks.
    16 May 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Yep, looking back, it was discussed several times. Now I wonder when BMW made the requirement official... Perhaps I missed it, but was that date stamp included in the CC? It makes a difference if this is a very new development (say, the day after the funding agreement was reached, which would go toward answering HTL's complaint), or was a known issue being addressed over the last several years (and still unfinished of course).
    17 May 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    trip, I believe TG said Axion and the other supplier were a couple of months into the process. That does not address "when BMW made the requirement official" but does suggest when BMW made "the introductions".
    17 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Then management purposely kept this under a bushel basket while the share price sank during the averaging period leading up to this round of funding? I guess HTL has confirmation for his complaint.
    17 May 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... I don't see a reason why management need inform the shareholders that negotiations for anything are underway. If I may be so bold, management might have told us long ago by telling us they were in the search for a "strategic investor". Investment can be more than financial instruments. I never understood what that specifically meant and could be classified as a "weasel" word. We jumped to our own conclusions because it seemed to be near the words "investment banker" and the forum was worried about financing while management was pursuing a different conclusion.

     

    Lack of clarity pisses me off also. I'm seriously not happy with TG for words & action not lining up due to a lack of communication but I believe they are following the roadmap quite well. You asked when BMW made it official. I think the roadmap has been in place since 2009, with a handshake, and the Gen2 line.
    17 May 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    TB: The only thing I think we can rely on was linked from Amouna's original link. http://bit.ly/101Y08a

     

    Anyway, I C & P'd the text into this comment from the page "Results of Operations", "Motive Transportation", page 10.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Note the "We are a few months into that program and it is going well".

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    I don't think that is what he meant by 'strategic investor.'

     

    " I was wondering if you could just shed a little light on the process of having looked for an investor and your difference between what would be a strategic investor and a financial investor, and if you were close to getting a strategic investor just a little bit of color on that issue.

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    Yeah, we’ve been looking to different options in different opportunities for strategic investors, but price hasn’t been what we’re willing to pay if you will. So the investments that we’ve had in the past have been investments in terms of financing, certainly the investors that we had last year were good investors. They have stuck with the company. We see them appear in the various lists of shareholders. They’re still there. They’re still with us. We have a different type of investment this time around that we be engaged in. It's a tough market out there without question. Would we prefer to have a strategic investor standing along side of us that is going to take a percentage of the company and work with us and work to get us into various opportunities, we certainly would. But we’re not prepared to give up 60% of the company in order to do that or to take an investment at a much lower discount to market. What we were able to take is I’m sure you all know on the call we were able to obtain investments at a plus rate, and in this market with the opportunities that are out there and with the folks that have gone out of business in the battery industry we’re certainly thankful that we were able to hold out and get the kind of deal that we got."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I don't think he used it as a 'weasel' word. JMO
    17 May 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Darn... that was my chance...
    16 May 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I'm 7 minutes out in front of everyone else? The Axionistas must be really distracted...
    16 May 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations on your number one star.
    16 May 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    A purely random occurance. To be filed under the "even a blind hog finds the occasional acorn" tab.
    16 May 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Tripleback, hogs have good noses :-)
    16 May 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    BIG noses, too...

     

    Hey, I RESEMBLE that remark!
    17 May 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Transcript up
    http://bit.ly/10IHxGb

     

    Questions asked by
    Keith Markey - Griffin Securities

     

    Howard Berkowitz - BlackRock

     

    Michael Smith - Private Investor

     

    Kent Gutmann - Private Investor

     

    Patrick Young - Private Investor

     

    Unidentified Analyst
    He sounded like a private investor not a pro. to me.

     

    Another
    Unidentified Analyst

     

    Colin English - Private Investor
    Has been Identified by Axion-ni as:
    Colin English - Head of Business Development at Mn Services Investment management UK
    May be correct ID or not I don't know.

     

    William Blanchard - Private Investor
    16 May 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Stefan Moroney had the one that started

     

    "My first question has to do with the financing"

     

    just before Colin English - Private Investor,

     

    and as it turned out ... his only one as he got cut off ...

     

    Lesson for the future: ask you best question first ... cause you can't count on getting more than one ..
    16 May 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    There was someone towards the end from Dakota Incorporated if I remember well...
    17 May 2013, 04:18 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Operator
    I recognized the Dakota Incorporated before from before.
    He the company was on the call for Q3
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    (Operator Instructions). And our first question is from Paul DeMarchi (ph) of Dakota (ph) Incorporated.

     

    An update of the present Transcript says
    Operator

     

    Our next question comes from [Paul Demasi from Dakota] Incorporated.

     

    Probably the same guy.
    17 May 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    <rant>
    I would like to take this opportunity to gripe, which I don't often do (until recently), in the hopes that TG & Co. will see it and think about it. I think if all post a thought about it ...

     

    It peeved me mightily that they have been several months into the process of second supplier efforts and nary a word that might ease the fears of the investment community was uttered.

     

    I feel that this could have been a minor PR with few details that said something along the lines of "Axion is pursuing ... alliances ... for satisfaction of requirements for use in (a potential) auto ..." and omit all detail as appropriate.

     

    Their silence does eliminate the risk of being seen to fail - good for them.

     

    If they are going to be a "commercial enterprise", I assume that one of the tasks they inherit with that mantle is concern for keeping investors informed in a *timely* manner. Some call it "managing expectations". I call it just helping your investing community make the best decisions for themselves and for the company benefit.

     

    Just think of what it would feel like for folks that dumped and lost money just because the company was more tight-lipped than it needed to be if this cc caused a nice price appreciation.

     

    How many folks might have stayed away because a significant step towards an apparent auto win was not even hinted.

     

    Think of the angst that could be avoided by folks that decide to hold through thick and thin if they had these tidbits of information.

     

    As a share holder I feel we are part of the company and deserve to be informed, within reason and with due discretion, when steps that will have significant effect on investor decisions occur. Even if nothing is finalized, it's worth letting the community *know* that some significant change in the activities progressing towards success occurs.

     

    "The market is a forward-looking mechanism". Looking backwards only, through the quarterly reports, just doesn't cut it here.

     

    I won't even address how much easier and better their financing effort *might* have been if share price had been going the other way. That's above my knowledge, of course.
    </rant>

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    HTL, good points.
    16 May 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    HTL, very valid points well stated. I feel like we all were kind of wrung through the ringer with this funding process. And from our perspective, it seems needlessly. More could/should have been done info/communication wise to synergize the process and perhaps gain a somewhat better result.

     

    And major mea culpa on my part:

     

    I know I expressed several times that I just couldn't believe the process would have been so stretched out, taken to the wire seemingly, putting many in high anxiety, if TG & Co were not truly "working on something big"...

     

    I was wrong.

     

    The deal that did come off was reasonably decent, but was also more or less underwhelming.

     

    I see now I'm probably also wrong about it being something they might intend to buy their way out of if something spectacularly good were to happen within the time period. In view of the call today, that just doesn't seem to be the plan.

     

    Regrets to all if any of my misplaced exuberances may have in the least pointed anyone astray. I will attempt to close it up better going forward...
    16 May 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    HT - I'm all for TG keeping the main thing the main thing. Trying to satisfy Wall Street and Investors "used" to be the main thing. I'm for the way TG is handling things, focused on what he has to do and not guessing what the non-informed "informed" want to know. <:={)))

     

    It's a tough line to walk, but on the other hand, what good are all the former gyrations now in a cemetery filled with HUD's and/or other wannabees?
    16 May 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, I'm still a fan and one of the faithful, just tempered a bit. I don't want to change horses. There are so many enduring and growing positives. Primary of which is the BMW development. Which IMHO is probably really iceberg-like in that most of what is of consequence is found beneath the surface. It's just that this whole recent evolution has been painful. Flat-lining at 25 cents for virtually months on end while enduring a toxic radio silence just took its inevitable toll. But hopefully that is behind us now for a while. Nothing tasty and filling *appears* near at hand right now, but then as always, we never know... a several megawatt PC sale? A joint BMW-Axion-Battery OEM announcement? Something new and affirmative from NSC? Winning the SBIR phase2 in July? A highly vocal and enthusiastic ePower demonstrating to the world (finally) with something real and on the road just what the PbC can really do? I think maybe we have turned a real corner, yes, but we're not yet on Grand Avenue.... there's another block to go and then another corner to turn... we just don't know right now how long, and how boring this next block is going to be...
    16 May 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    48: "Regrets to all if any of my misplaced exuberances may have in the least pointed anyone astray. I will attempt to close it up better going forward... "

     

    You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.

     

    All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    I'm still zero to whatever. All of my speculation has been wrong to this point - or at least way out of any projected timeline.
    17 May 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    HT et.al.:

     

    Ya, like a stopped clock is correct twice a day;

     

    Or, like AC goes thru zero each cycle.

     

    And like AC, the potential is there, but some real work has to begin.

     

    All this is different from DEAD, or hopefully even SICK; more like a fetus, or a babe needing time to gestate and/or develop.

     

    The Axionagnostics are like those in the neighborhood watching others buying all the nursery furniture and baby clothes while betting on the Nordstrom cash register sales for such.

     

    The baby will come, hopefully not stillborn, grow up, and finally get dressed in something.

     

    In the meantime, all you neighborhood guys are guessing at what the mother really knows about what is going on inside and of which some IS private (NYOB), all while the gestation period is NOT a simple 9 months, and we really don't know how pregnant she really looks now, nor the maximum size at birth.
    18 May 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    In some ways, the Concentrator is our enemy to feeling comfort with the pps...too much thinking about too little going on.

     

    So, I try to stay away. But, am pulled back in because "if something good happens, I want to know".

     

    Realistically, we are long and maybe many long months from any real increase in stock price...then it will likely be plateaued at some intermediate level...I hope above my average price....but at a plateau price, and not likely a price I'm or you are really happy with.

     

    This is not a Telsa...for what ever reason. Look at the Telsa cars..how visceral they are and look at a battery. What excites you? Where is the hype for better batteries that will drive the price b4 something really happens regarding customers and volume of sales.

     

    It is a company with a seemingly mundane but revolutionary, largely not understood product. Not well understood even to the customers who should understand the product. But, that is changing.

     

    If you feel discouraged, are you focusing on the difference between 'BMW is testing the battery' and 'BMW is telling their battery makers to help bring this product to us in a way we can use it'?

     

    Should that raise the price? Yeah, for us believers. But unless you are a certain type of believer, why buy? You know this will be a long process with ups and downs in the price. Why buy now? No real reason.

     

    To be successful in this type of investing you cannot be a person who spends money they need, nor be a person who spends a lot of time second guessing them selves. It also does not help to be a person who always seems to sell at the wrong time.

     

    If you liked this story when it was a pure hype dream...that is, when you paid what you paid for the shares you bought... what's not to like about where we are today in terms of productivity and applications...and a major who is pushing to use the product.

     

    Think of all the decisions BMW has made regarding designing future product that is expressed in their need to get multiple bases of manufacture for the battery. Look at all the production and legal issues that must be ironed out b4 BMW can use the battery, even if they wanted to now.

     

    I believe we will eventually have a very decent, maybe juicy pps. when big, real customers are telling their battery manufacturers to buy our parts in volume and when we are really profitable...and when people understand that company that makes a part for batteries is a good investment.

     

    Why do battery mfgs resist? First, maybe they aren't resisting. They can't make the battery in volume. We just learned we could make the battery in volume. Second, we will likely make more money on our part than they will make on their entire battery. Wouldn't you resist?

     

    So, I am OK...even happy with where we are. We could still go down the tubes. But, it is much, much less likely than it was last year...much less than when most of us started buying our shares.
    16 May 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, right on man! I like all of your points. This is a revolutionary product and its progress is slow as molasses, but there is progress in most every direction and the story is intact.
    Even better than intact. BMW is introducing the company to its battery suppliers and saying "work with this newbie." I'm enthused!

     

    That said, I agree that more waiting is on tap.
    16 May 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Bay
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    This is the sort of realistic, straightforward expectation that JP seems incapable of providing. Thank you
    16 May 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    How true, thank you sir very much !!
    16 May 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    ->Doc I don't think I could have expressed any better how I feel about Axion. I try to avoid the boards a bit because in this world of instant satisfaction Axion can be damning.
    16 May 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Doc,
    Now back to watching paint dry and grass grow. ;-)
    16 May 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Steve Bay,

     

    With all due respect and in fairness, it is not JP's job to manage our expectations or assuage our anxiety about investing in a high risk R&D penny stock.

     

    He has provided a wealth of technical and legal expertise, as well as deep insight about the corporate philosophy as a former insider. For that I am grateful, as it has helped me to see the remarkable potential of this company. But I would not want him to change his consistent stance of professional boundary lines with respect to a former client and employer to become simply a cheerleader to entice investors.
    16 May 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    SMaurin: +1. JP's only responsibility as a participant is to provide best assessment when he chooses to do so, just as he would expect any of us to do.

     

    I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    SMaurin: +2
    18 May 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, +3.

     

    PS: You will probably not fully understand the value of this offer due to the nature of some time dated posts but if you should in the future feel the need, my yoga instructor is offering a free first week of lessons. I found them quite useful in completing assigned tasks. ;)
    18 May 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Hi Mr. John!!

     

    Please, We need you write a new article on AXPW PbC Tech. I suggest You update this one: "Axion Power: A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward". In six months, from November 2012 to the present day it has produced a very important change.

     

    Thanks-Carlos
    16 May 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    So, continuing the conversation about what you guys think will be the sources of material PbC revenues over the next 12 months:

     

    PC sales: Granville said, "we anticipate providing cubes of various sizes or different storage applications again in the next nine to 12 months." Does that mean within the next 9-12 months or not until then? I wish he was much more precise. I'll say >= 9-12.

     

    But Granville also said, "yesterday I accompanied Vani on a sales call. To further discuss the amount of storage that will go into a 2013 project being developed by our strategic partner. The amount of storage will probably be several megawatts". So this implies sometime in the next 7.5 months.

     

    Rail: who knows when the OTR order comes in? Then follow-on orders for yard and OTRs.

     

    Other: auto, truck, HUB, all immaterial in 2013, unless auto miraculously produces a production order this yr. SIBR grant: amybe $1 million this summer. Any other small fry?
    16 May 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... Over the next 4 Quarters I don't see and "Meaningful" sales, just some sales. My cloudy vision can only see maybe offsetting 1 quarter of burn rate. If they can get a manufacturing partner agreement on paper & signed in this year ... I don't care about "Meaningful" sales.
    16 May 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I'm with you on sales and therefore they'll need another cap raise in a year. At least a manufacturing partner agreement should help with that raise. Something for investors to hang their hat on, although I'm not sure how much they will. Depends on the terms, of course, but also investor appetite, etc. We should get the first feedback based on how trading goes now that the BMW pursuit has been disclosed. As the word spreads, we'll see.
    16 May 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1402) | Send Message
     
    I think it depends on BMW or NSC. If either give a large order than Axion can put off raising as the orders come in. It'll probably be a close call.
    16 May 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, if you would elaborate, that would be helpful. Thx.
    16 May 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    ISTM there is rising probability of sizable revenues from PC sales this year plus minor sales to ePower and truck OEMs. DR's spec of enough sales to offset 1 qtr of historical burn rate strikes me as quite likely with prospects for another qtr offset not beyond reason. But, we should expect S&A expenses to rise as sales force is expanded.

     

    I see probable rising PbC sales revenue due to a) planned expansion of sales and engineering staff to work with system integrators and b) increased flow of technical PbC performance information into the market. As an example of the latter I note TG claimed ePower truck testing info disclosed acceptance of 200 amps charge rate. The former point (a)) is viewed as strongly positive as in-house sales staff should be entirely focused on sale of Axion products and services, report to, and have efforts directed by, Axion management.
    16 May 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Revenues and profits are two very different things.

     

    And interesting choice for our "ace negotiator" on getting some systems installed (say in NYC,) creating some buzz (and PR,) and not requiring a trip to New Castle to "touch and feel."

     

    How low to you go early? If you go really low, they're going to NDA the thing out the wazoo, cause if you set a really low price you sure don't want prospective customers to know that, and by extension, we shareholders won't know it either, other than inferring stuff from the quarterly reports.

     

    Oh yeah, and there are more than a few competitors with the same idea/choice.

     

    Also, if you do see a big jump in revenues, remember that the price of the inverter will likely dwarf the price of the batteries sold ... so be sure to check out that cost of goods sold line too.

     

    When they write the book on AXPW, there will surely be a chapter on the PowerCube decision .... how long did we continue to make them, and did we devote more resources to them than we should have, as opposed to letting bigger more well capitalized (and well known) companies build, sell, and finance them. Would love to know the company's 5 year strategic plan along this line ...
    17 May 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    And BTW, this Residential Hub fiasco sure didn't do the PowerCube sales team any favors :-( :-( :-(

     

    The demonstration unit in New Castle is a start, but as a potential customer my thought would be, okay, the experts are right there to babysit it, but will it work for me without requiring a lot of maintenance?

     

    I suppose Axion can point to the Navy Yard system, but it was quite small, so they really need to get a "big boy" one installed somewhere in the NYC area, and really make sure it performs flawlessly, which may be another hit to profitability in the short run, but worth the "investment."
    17 May 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I need to re-listen to the CC, but I believe the 200 amps TG was referring to was *discharge* current, via lowered internal resistance, thus enhancing hill-climbing capability at full GW...

     

    If it's a single string, 56 batteries ==> call it 600V x 200A = ~120KW of boost power, which should be a pretty good kick. And of course the beauty of the PbC is that, right after the climb, on the downhill side, the PbC can, unlike those other batteries which melt, re-absorb much of that energy right back into the battery because of its high DCA. "Supreme Swappage", as it were...
    17 May 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    48: "Testing that confirmed our improved battery was now providing 200 amps and allowing even an undersized Genset to combine with our batteries and produce enough power to pull a full 80,000 pound load."

     

    But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.

     

    Se we're good to go up and down hills. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... The 200 amp charge acceptance is nothing new. It is nice to have it confirmed again. Charge acceptance up to 400 amps has been known for a while. More is possible but is unknown because, as we have read, no one is designing anything that needs more than 400 amps. Would be nice to have that confirmed. Then the 10C charge rate, complete recharge in under 6 minutes or less, would be confirmed.
    17 May 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    As a practical matter no application will demand a 100% SOC swing. A 20% to 30% operating range up ans down from a 50% SOC is far more likely, and gets much better battery life. Everybody does 100% SOC tests as a benchmark,, but nobody uses that kind of operating regime.
    17 May 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    DRich - Whoa, nobody is saying a 10C charge rate over the entire SOC is possible. The highest confirmed charge acceptance is 100 amps. 200 amps of charge acceptance have been demonstrated, but I am not sure under what conditions. However, no battery can go from 80% to 100% at full blast. Earlier published graphs show limited charge acceptance in the 0-20% range, too. Do not expect 6 minute 0-100% charges ever.

     

    200 amps of discharge is less of an issue, and could be higher. The new improved electrodes facilitate higher power ratings.

     

    BTW, charging at maximun rates degrades battery life. The PbC has some very impressive stats, but there is no need to exaggerate them.
    17 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... Fair enough
    17 May 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Point taken, 48'. Thanks for catching my mischaracterization of the info.
    17 May 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Lloyd Hanlin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    TG likes this concentrator series because it gives him an insight as to what is on stockholder's mind. However, for whatever reason, it seems obvious he uses it to give only detail feels necessary to meet filing requirements in such a way as to pacify stockholders at cc time.
    16 May 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Lloyd - Really??????
    16 May 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I have to admit that I was not pacified! I believe that TG did a good job of smoke and mirrors with the present day sales situation. I was in the cue but did not get a chance to ask a question. I believe the Axion / Rosewater relationship as well as the Hub delay story should have been updated with more detail. What TG left us with is uncertainties that will make us speculate what relly happened and maybe I will speculate something that is actually worse than the real story, what good does that do? This situation is also applied to all the other markets they are attempting to penetrate. I really wish TG was a better communicator!

     

    With that said I am still holding but unless TG surprises the market soon with something good about PbC revenues actually starting I believe we will not be climbing out of the $.20's anytime soon.

     

    I walked away from the CC with an opinion that we may not see PbC revs in the next one or two quarterly reports and that will not be very good. I still believe in the long term story but I am definitely concerned with the stock dilution and believe that the only salvation will be strong revenue growth this year but after today's call I am wondering where will that come from within the next 6 months or so?? The only real sizable opportunity may be with BMW but how long that will take is the million dollar question! If we see an announcement of a 3 party strategic relationship involving BMW in the next month or two then I believe everything changes and I will retract this posting!

     

    RBrun357
    16 May 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    In congruence with you RB... I mean really, one hour total? I'm sorry but that's just not worthy. There is certainly a lot to talk about, a lot of questions that I think could still be explored, and clarity achieved, without stepping too much on NDAs... I mean, with all of such consequence that has recently transpired, I think we were entitled to a bit more exposition. So, just how expensive is it really to offer, say, two hours?
    16 May 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I agree, 48. If limiting a conference call to one hour is TG's idea of "throwing nickels around like manhole covers," he deserves a cut in pay.
    17 May 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    One hour is pretty standard in the industry and when you're dealing with a service provider they don't much care that you started late. Many of us would have liked a longer call with more Q&A, but I don't know that Axion could have anticipated the length of the queue.
    17 May 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I agree, too, and mentioned the 1 hr cutoff in my letter to the Board, as part of the "Unacceptable communication" section.

     

    I never did hear back, which is what I expected, especially with the company in the midst of a new financing. But better that the Board get some feedback now vs later. Time does matter. A lot.

     

    Perhaps mgmt will be accessible again at the annual shareholders mtg, which would be helpful. Maybe some of you can get them boozed up and finally find out the answers to your many Q's!
    17 May 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • shaggydude4hire
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Another positive for me, the cash burn rate during the first quarter was $1.25 Million (versus what was previously 2 m, iirc), or would equate to $5 M/year- I know burn rate isn't a static item, but it tells me the extent to what they've been able to stretch their dollars as they move from R&D to a sales focus.

     

    Cash and cash equivalents – beginning 2,004,391
    Cash and cash equivalents – ending 758,926
    16 May 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Management throws nickels around like manhole covers. It's always been one of their greatest strengths.
    16 May 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    However
    Accounts receivable dropped by about $500K as well.
    from $771,410 to $286,976

     

    Still better than 2 mil.
    17 May 2013, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/10IHxGb

     

    link to CC transcript
    17 May 2013, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    i would not expect a company as in need of buyers as axpw is to say anything in terms of automotive progress if BMW even hinted at keeping it on the DL.

     

    i know we are a group and this is a great source of info, but to invest successfully you have to find value where others don't imo. that means not being afraid to stand alone.

     

    trading tesla is nothing like buying axpw in my mind. one is a momo play and the other is a purchase of future market potential.

     

    no more proof of concept (for me this passed with the 450k Norfolk order). no more tinkering (carbon sheeting automation). sales aren't here yet, but how in the hell is BMW sourcing OUR product a bad thing?

     

    this was a good company if you bought railroad market potential. trucking is moving swimmingly thanks to EPower, and auto is what makes this a potentially huge company in five years.

     

    when evaluating the importance of events can we please remember market potential. residential hub? much more interested in working with large power grids. how much in sales did you expect from Rosewater? i feel like TG did a good job here, saying Rosewater can have exclusivity if they can produce sales. That reads to me: we aren't sure this is a market we need to focus on, but if you say it is you have the means to prove it.
    17 May 2013, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/111zEdG This company is a big supplier to Audi, BMW, VW, Chrysler, Porsche and Mercedes. It would be great to get a deal with these guys
    17 May 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Axion-nl": ISTR somebody mentioning Moll in the past. That could be a decent one too.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Banner has done a lot of work on carbon additives and understands their limitations. In fact their ELBC presentation did a great job of highlighting both the strengths and weaknesses of additives. I think they'd make a great first partner, but I'd be just as happy with Moll, Continental or Bosch.
    17 May 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Wondered about Bosch batteries ...

     

    http://bit.ly/12gBcTv

     

    Turns out they're sold at Pep Boys in the Chicago area:

     

    One nearest me sells these Bosch products:
    Spark Plugs: Iridium, Platinum Ir Fusion, Platinum +4, Platinum +2, Platinum Plus Oxygen Sensors, Water Pumps, Batteries

     

    But does Bosch supply the South Carolina BMW plant?

     

    Will BMW be satisfied with one company, e.g., Bosch to be a "sole source" worldwide?

     

    Can we make a deal with two quickly enough?

     

    Given our luck, we'll be all excited about the first deal and then BMW will "raise the bar" by requiring the second deal before proceeding. I suppose they will be kind enough to tell TG early, but I'm not holding my breath he will (or be allowed) to tell his shareholders.

     

    Would you trust Exide to be your partner given their repeated screwups? How much would you pay to be a fly on the wall at that negotiation? :-)

     

    Looking forward to TG's memoirs .... though I hope to God he has a good ghost writer :-)
    17 May 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    wtb, I'm thinking Bosch would never be the 'sole source' because Axion will always be the other source.

     

    Yes, our long-term strategy is to make electrodes only but in the short and medium term we can and will sell complete PbC batteries.

     

    D
    17 May 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    I'm not aware of Continental doing anything in LAB's. They obviously do energy recovery systems since they are a chassis specialist.
    17 May 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    DH - while it might seem logical to you and me, I'm not sure AXPW will qualify as a complete battery source to BMW given the kind of requirements I'm read repeatedly from iindelco on their suppliers.

     

    I think we will have to work hard to qualify as an electrode supplier ... and it wouldn't surprise me that even in the US BMW requires a "big boy" with financial heft (including enough to buy us if the worst happened) to produce the batteries from the get-go.

     

    They may be happy with a US "big boy" and a European "big boy" and even whether they can be the same (global) firm is an open question.

     

    iindelco?

     

    I really hope "our" line is full producing locomotive, truck, and Cube batteries!
    17 May 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    JCI/Varta says they supply BMW, but of course no details on where or which models:

     

    http://on.jci.com/10CUErp

     

    About VARTA
    Johnson Controls’ VARTA brand lead-acidbattery is the top choice among vehicle manufacturers in Europe and Asia and is also distributed in South America.

     

    Toyota is also on the list ...
    17 May 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    WTB, First off the automotive market is serviced by a layered or "tiered" supply base. Industry has changed significantly from when Henry Ford created the River Rouge Assembly Complex where raw materials entered and vehicles exited. http://bit.ly/14x8bF2

     

    Now the industry is supported by Tier 1 suppliers that have the expertise in their sectors to gather and support a family of Tier 2 suppliers. And it works it's way out to Tier 3 suppliers as well. Each tier has it's expertise and provides it in support of any number of tiers at the next or even higher level (yes you can be a Tier 1 and a Tier 2 supplier as well). But please understand, the tier you are at is not a ranking like in sports. It is only a designation of where your contribution is in the supply chain.

     

    But more to your point. Each player in this structure provides not only technical expertise but can also provide financial support or security. The security point comes by having the resources, financial and technical, to fill shortfalls when they occur. They do it because they sign up for the duty, get some level or reward for the task and VERY IMPORTANT have the most to lose if the shortfall is not resolved. This last point is why BMW will not source Axion directly. They would not have the resources or enough a*& in the game to prevent them from walking away.

     

    How Axion might service different markets. It depends on who has the most to gain and lose in each respective market. In Europe perhaps Bosch says we will best support the OEM's here and their capabilities best suit Axion and the OEM's. In the US perhaps JCI and Exide don't want it because its success hurts them overall more than it helps them. So some upstart in automotive OE like East Penn sticks it to them. Or Easy Penn says "I want nothing to do with Automotive OE. It's a PITA." In this case maybe BMW and GM say "JCI & Exide, You have our business and in order to keep us happy you need to make a proposal to support us in this need." So we see some give and take for all parties because in the end it's all about servicing the needs of the transportation market. No "Trains, Planes and Automobiles" and everyone loses.
    17 May 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco> Continental is he prime contractor for the AGM-super capacitor product that Maxwelll makes for Peugeot. It's not clear whether they manufacture the batteries, but they're definitely in the space.
    17 May 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    Ahh yes John. They have taken the role of the systems integrator. Automakers like drop in system solutions IF they provide the most value for the unit of currency.

     

    Not sure it fits with Axion because they need a VRLA battery partner. Valeo has an upstart sibling in National. We saw recent support of them by BMW to widen their supply chain and keep the big boys honest.

     

    Wouldn't it be nice to get enough top level interest to have all the knights fighting each other to get an uncut crown jewel to spiff up for the king? Doesn't happen often but when it does the popcorn sells like crazy for the jousting event. A scene fit for a Black Knight who postured in advance and wins no matter the outcome enjoying a bit of corn at the festivities. ;)

     

    Now back to reality.
    17 May 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    JCI is promoting a VARTA stop start battery:

     

    http://on.jci.com/18QjY4M

     

    They have manufacturing facilities all over the southeast:
    http://on.jci.com/14xicSK
    17 May 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    05/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 641735, AvTrSz: 4650
    Min. Pr: 0.2460, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2592
    # Buys, Shares: 64 277317, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
    # Sells, Shares: 70 354417, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2585
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 10001, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2549
    Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.2% “buys”), DlyShts 218208 (34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.57%

     

    Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.

     

    Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.

     

    $0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462
    $0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504
    $0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558
    $0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618
    $0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666

     

    On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.

     

    Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.

     

    On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    HTL, the high short sales continues. Wonder who that is. I know your guess has been the MMs, and JP's the private placement holders. It's been a much, much higher number recently, though, so sumpth'ns up. Interesting.

     

    Very early since the new cap raise, but the price seems to be, ballpark, settling into a range that has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting. I'll be interested in seeing the May15th short interest number. My reading of the new deal docs says that the investors are allowed to short AXPW, just not so much that they have a net short position. Not sure where they would get their shares to borrow, though, as that's usually a non-starter for an OTCBB stk, but no way do I really know.

     

    MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise. If that's their only bid, that's an unimpressive show of support. Perhaps, if they will ever offer meaningful support, they'll wait until the four investors have registered shares to sell. EGRO, the previous deal's co-agent, has been at 10 cents for forever now. The prospectus said they did not intend to support the stock.

     

    Both the EGRO and MAXM deals had a Tranche 2 component, if you will. The EGRO deal's was disclosed by Granville a couple of cc's ago, and when I peeked at the new deal docs the other day, it looked like there is what amts to right of 1st refusal language in there. The 'Tranche 2' component didn't amt to squat in EGRO's case, though, as the next deal was done with MAXM instead. If MAXM really has a right of first refusal, then maybe they don't have much motivation to support the stk. If someone has thoroughly read the governing deal doc(s) and wants to chime in, please do.
    17 May 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    MrI: "I know your guess has been the MMs, and JP's the private placement holders".

     

    Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.

     

    As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.

     

    By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,

     

    " has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."

     

    I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.

     

    "MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"

     

    Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    HTL, there were a lot of other private placement holders besides the big uglies. Some of them could be selling now. Outsiders simply don't know for sure, except to the extent, if any, that mgmt shares appear on the proxy, for example.
    17 May 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    MrI: I think John is better qualified to look at that than I am. However, if there are certificates involved in those private placements, which I don't know, they'll likely show up in my fails-to-deliver stuff shortly. There's other reasons fails can occur, but they tend to be very infrequent, sporadic and very low volume.

     

    Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.

     

    HardToLove
    18 May 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I too am looking forward to the next short sale report and future fails to deliver data.
    18 May 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    John: I don't believe any big change in the semi-monthly short report will appear, other than some mormal shorts in the last 3 or fewer days of the reporting period that are the result of normal MM activity, as some of the shares (either backing sell orders or covering buys) that cover shorts may not have settled yet.. Similarly, IIUC that the certificate holders are really out, I expect the fails will not come back to previous levels either.

     

    However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.

     

    HardToLove
    18 May 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what to expect, but I'm certainly curious and eager to learn.
    18 May 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    What I wanted to ask yesterday at the CC was if either BMW, NS or other customers who are testing the PbC have had the opportunity to test the new battery, their comments, and if this would have an impact on further testing being required?

     

    Have the numbers of automotive OEM's remained the same, who are either testing the PbC, or are getting ready to testing the PbC, And has the interest level of any of these OEM's increased or decreased and/or is the focus changing to a higher voltage system i.e. 48 volt.?

     

    What are the buyer objections that you have to overcome in selling the PC?

     

    ##
    What I note that was mentioned before, but not mentioned this CC.
    IIRC wasn't there something about NS testing the PbC for different uses, i.e. start/stop, crane use, or was that just a factoid that we created, or just speculation?

     

    APU - looked at year end report and saw nothing about APU - is that another factoid, or just speculation, or was this an announcement, or appeared during another CC?

     

    Additionally, wondering what is the significance of TG's 200 amp comment. My sleuthing uncovered that a car battery has to provide something around that figure, or more to start the car, but would TG mean that the PbC can discharge 200 amps for longer periods of time, where a car battery tends to die out after a few minutes of cranking?
    17 May 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Yup, Metro, that is essentially what I wanted to ask too. At least the part about the impact of the 25%+ improvement in internal resistance amperage.

     

    It does not seem insignificant and I would think that it opens up a whole new round of testing as to what the PbC can do.

     

    D
    17 May 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Battery testing is application-specific, which means the primary question is whether particular battery can do a particular job. Once you've proven that a battery can do a particular job, improvements are just icing on the cake that opens up new opportunities. It does not reset your testing protocols.
    17 May 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    thanks, makes sense
    17 May 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Metro
    "What I wanted to ask yesterday at the CC was if either BMW, NS or other customers who are testing the PbC have had the opportunity to test the new battery,"

     

    ePower is using the improved battery

     

    "And in a very short time thereafter several weeks in fact as already improved that initial line or is it because I read the most recent report on ePower hybrid truck testing utilizing our PbC batteries. Testing that confirmed our improved battery was now providing 200 amps and allowing even an undersized Genset to combine with our batteries and produce enough power to pull a full 80,000 pound load."
    17 May 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    When can we expect video on the Axion website of emloyees walking around with an extra bounce in their steps?
    17 May 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Alpha: Probably made and discarded because of too much "jitter" as the cameraman had too much bounce in his step too! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    BMW i3 – batteries and charging solutions
    April 18th, 2013

     

    cells are supplied, but developed the battery themselves ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1076oDp

     

    "As part of the upcoming 2013 Innovation Days, BMW releases more details on the i3 electric vehicle, its battery technology and charging solutions.

     

    The power supply for the BMW i3 is provided by a specially developed high-performance lithium ion battery with eight modules and 96 cells, which is integrated compactly into the subfloor, where it is optimally protected"
    17 May 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    "BMW i offers a fully modular and reparable high-voltage battery for the first time in the automotive industry with the introduction of the BMW i3. Any defect does not therefore necessarily require a full replacement, as it may be possible to correct the problem by replacing individual modules at selected BMW i dealers. The design measures and replacement part approach contribute significantly to long-term product acceptance, economical operating costs and reduced warranty costs. This concept also therefore contributes very significantly to the conservation of resources and the sustainability strategy."
    17 May 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7609) | Send Message
     
    Um, Tesla has been doing that since the Roadster, and Nissan can replace individual modules in the LEAF, probably others as well. Heck I can replace individual cells in my car if I had to. In other words BMW is spewing marketing nonsense.
    19 May 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, Without understanding the ease of doing this yourself for the more technically inclined or the cost of doing this at an authorized dealer all the claims are BS.

     

    You can also rebuild an ICE powered car at 150k miles so that it's like new. That doesn't mean it's cost effective to do so.
    19 May 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7609) | Send Message
     
    The point is this is already a common practice in existing EV design and BMW has nothing special in that respect. Simple as that.
    20 May 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    JRP3. Understood. But companies like to yap about what they can do pointing out the positives only. I say big deal unless they have been creative in making it something that makes sense for the customer.

     

    Not a BS fluff lover and there is far too much of that being used.
    20 May 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Electrovaya Reports Second Quarter FY 2013 Results
    5/14/2013

     

    http://bit.ly/11KkctY
    17 May 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    I am interested in how Axion will monetize its PbC technology once it partners with one of BMW's suppliers. Two scenarios:

     

    - Build electrodes on-site: The supplier bears all costs of duplication of AXPW's original line, and here Axion lives off a royalties from licensing the technology to them. If someone knows something about licensing law then your help is very welcome.

     

    - Duplicate more electrode lines in New Castle: a phase of intensive Capex where Axion will most likely need a big capital raise.

     

    I personally think they will go with option 1.
    17 May 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Knowing management as I do, I think an outright license is unlikely. The most likely scenario in my view would be creation of a joint venture that would build a new electrode facility. The bulk (or all) of the funding would come from the partner and operational responsibilities would be assigned to the partners based on their particular competences. That kind of JV would give Axion an ownership interest in the facility and a share of future profits.
    17 May 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    In the case you foresee, I think the supplier will most likely try to force Axion to have a lower share in the profits. After all, they are the ones who will pony up the capex to build all those electrode lines. What net margin % are we talking about in this case? I know for a fact that automotive is a cut-throat business...

     

    thanks
    A
    17 May 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Without Axion there is no product.

     

    If a fair agreement cannot be confirmed then another supplier will be found.

     

    But an existing supplier will want to keep their contracts.

     

    So that's where TG"s long heralded negotiating skills will be most sorely tested. He has even more skin in the game and I am certain that he will bring all his skill to bear.

     

    Subsequent negotiations with other battery manufacturers may well have higher profit margins for Axion once the product is in cars.
    17 May 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, Albert. Axion brings their patented technology, without which the manufacturing partner gets nothing. In fact, there is more at stake as the partner risks losing some of their sales.

     

    The partner will get their normal margin, as a percent, perhaps a litle more if they negotiate well. It seems to me that Axion would get about the same net of costs dollar amount per unit as the manufacturing partner.

     

    Who will be our partner? The highest bidder, of course.

     

    D
    17 May 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Joint venture agreements are extraordinarily complex and involve a myriad of issues Including capital expenditures profit-sharing, operating protocols, transfer prices and a host of other issues. It's easy to evaluate a documented deal, but very hard to predict what the details will be.
    17 May 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie-

     

    While like you I would hope its the higgest bidder. But if BMW is the one doing the introductions they may say

     

    We want to you work with A. We'll make the intros and you figure the rest out. If that is the case it would be harder to walk away if TG doesn't like the deal. I have no doubt that he would as he seems to get it and his expertiece is what we need here the most.

     

    I assume that if it gets too bad Axion can go back to BMW and say got a #2?
    17 May 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I've always assumed that automotive would be the least profitable market for the PbC because the automakers are so tough on pricing. If TG can negotiate a deal that gets Axion a fair profit share on every battery it won't bother me at all if one or several big battery manufacturers take the lead and front the bulk of the capital spending.

     

    I'm convinced that TG will approach the negotiation very carefully because first agreements tend to become prototypes for all subsequent agreements.
    17 May 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    MrHolty: "I assume that if it gets too bad Axion can go back to BMW and say got a #2?".

     

    Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.

     

    First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.

     

    Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Automotive will probably ultimately require relationships with a couple major AGM manufacturers in each geographic region - North America, Europe, and Asia. The first is the most important because it will serve as a prototype for all subsequent deals.

     

    I'd expect all deals to be limited to specific applications so that a deal tailored to the needs of automakers won't impact Axion's collateral efforts in markets like trucking and rail.
    17 May 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    HTL
    I agree.
    The idea of only having one supplier over there doesn't make a lot of sense. If your going to do it over there; then why would you only want one supplier there?
    Might as well start with 2/3 to begin with.

     

    However
    "An alternate provider"
    It sounds more like they may have been introduced to more than one but there may only one winner. For now. :)

     

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a “sole source” issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy (“to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry”), we embraced the process.
    We are a few months into that program and it is going well. "

     

    http://bit.ly/101Y08a
    17 May 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    Back to yesterday's attendees for a minute.

     

    The fact that Mr. Berkowitz was once again in attendance tells me that (his sale of AXPW not withstanding) that he is convinced of the AXPW story. It is only timing that is his question. Apparently, he was earlier convinced (as many of us) that the breakout would be sooner than later. Then he changed his mind and sold. However, the belief in a breakout at some point is still there. The story is till a ound one.

     

    While I won't complain if it's sooner, I'm now looking toward Q4 into Q1.
    17 May 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Note to TG: No loss leaders please!!!!!!
    17 May 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Kent G asked (as I would have) and got this answer:

     

    "Charles Trego - CFO

     

    Actually you have a good – thank you for the question. You have a good eye for the trend in our numbers. Actually our finished goods inventory at the end of 2012 we found out should have been classified as work in process, and we caught that in preparing our first quarter 10-Q by looking at the trend of our inventory classifications. Most of our inventory is in batteries, and they are not in a finished state. And they should be classified properly as work in process. If you look at the trend in our disclosed inventory classifications up through the end -- or up through the fourth quarter of last year the bulk of our inventory was always classified as it properly should be because our batteries aren’t completely finished until sales orders come in. So we have had a full par if you will and a disclosure of our classified inventory in our 10-K for the fourth quarter and we corrected that in our first quarter 10-Q."

     

    I believe the word/phrase the transcriber was looking for was "faux pas" not "full par."

     

    http://bit.ly/186iIsQ

     

    For all you future CFOs, "faux pas" is not a phrase you want in your lexicon on a call. Admit it. Own it. Fix it. But really, to this non-accountant, not impressive to screw this seemingly basic thing up. Not major league.

     

    JP: is this not something that requires an amended filing? Not seeing one on the sec.gov site.

     

    My opinion ... even if you don't have to, you might want to if you want to be "transparent" ... though I expect there are arguments and legalities both ways.

     

    BTW, Kent followed up smartly and get the answer that there are no electrodes counted as "finished goods" in this quarter's report, but in the future they will be (some.) I trust they'll get that division right in the future ...
    17 May 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I would not do an amended filing for a classification error in an inventory footnote, particularly in the battery industry where the distinction between finished goods and work in process is a very fine line.

     

    As I understand the manufacturing process, batteries are completely assembled, but they're not filled with electrolyte and sent through formation charging until shipment is imminent.

     

    The $64,000 question is whether you want to classify the finished but unformed batteries as WIP or finished goods.

     

    Is electrolyte loading and formation a manufacturing process or a delivery process? I can see rational arguments either way and as long as reporting remains consistent from this point forward, I think the issue's a tempest in a teapot.

     

    Electrode assemblies may one day qualify as finished goods, but I don't see that happening in the foreseeable future.
    17 May 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    I'd think as long as those batteries get delivered this quarter it will mostly be moot in my view. If not, one must wonder why in the heck they'd ever went with a finished classification for something that will end up sitting 6-9 months.

     

    I hope we do have more legit problems of PbC moving from WIP to finished as that would mean sales are starting to percolate.
    17 May 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    bazoo---and looks like the audit mgr at EFP Rotenberg, LLP was caught napping.
    17 May 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Finished goods = ready for purchase by the intended buyer
    17 May 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    But remember what NSC wants to purchase is in no way what Xide might require!
    17 May 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP - on the money as usual

     

    "I've always assumed that automotive would be the least profitable market for the PbC because the automakers are so tough on pricing. If TG can negotiate a deal that gets Axion a fair profit share on every battery it won't bother me at all if one or several big battery manufacturers take the lead and front the bulk of the capital spending".

     

    This what is known as brilliant strategy

     

    Perfect for AXPW and all vehicle opportunities. Simple, best profits, least capital and risk.

     

    Feel more and more that TG is fully in tune and wants to realize on the opportunities as much or more than we do

     

    All who can be patient (and what else are you going to do with the capital) will be rewarded many, many times over
    17 May 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Protected technology of significance

     

    A major customer who wants to buy

     

    A supplier whose customer tells them to work with this technology

     

    A supplier who needs that major customer

     

    This is the making of a license agreement to die for

     

    Patience - it is being delivered to us each and every day - though when it will be announced is anyone's guess

     

    Within 5 years - 95% without question

     

    Within 3 years - likely with the momentum that is building

     

    Within a year - maybe

     

    Less than a year - I doubt it - however I would hate to be sitting on the sidelines if and when it was
    17 May 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • LASF
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    "Less than a year - I doubt it - however I would hate to be sitting on the sidelines if and when it was "

     

    How about those who require positions of several million shares (eg., BlackRock). They'd better start accumulating before there is even a hint of a whiff.
    20 May 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    The Form 10-Q said "The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a “sole source” issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy (“to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry”), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

     

    That disclosure is far more than a hint of a whiff. It says that Axion is negotiating the agreement NOW.

     

    In my experience, a No comes very quickly and the only answer that takes months to deal with is a Yes.
    20 May 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Totally agree JP!
    20 May 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I understand that you do not know the timing but I am just curious as to the how short or long the timeline to strike a deal in this kind of situation could be based on your experience? Is 6 months feasible?
    20 May 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    ISTM that disclosure also pertains to carbon electrode assemblies, not PbC batteries.
    20 May 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    RBrun> It can take several months to negotiate and document a complex license, joint venture or supply agreement, but the process rarely drags out for more than six to nine months. Given Axion's statement that "We are a few months into that program and it is going well," I'd be surprised if we went three months without news.

     

    Another intriguing discussion in the CC was the disclosure that the Phase II SBIR grant application "... that included a strategic partner that is one of the industry giants." Since the DOE is targeting an early July decision date, I think the identity of the strategic partner is also a short-term event.
    20 May 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • LASF
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    "That disclosure is far more than a hint of a whiff."

     

    Oh, I agree that there is clear evidence that the wheels are turning. I was refering to the timing aspect. If a large investor is expecting a signed agreement in, say, two years, they will probably prefer to wait a bit before starting to build a position.
    20 May 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Thanks, much appreciated.
    20 May 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    "One of the industry giants" .... we know Axion submitted a joint application for another grant (which was not awarded, believe decision was summer 2012) with GM.... do we thus believe GM is likely to be the very same partner with them on the pending SBIR phase2 application? That's my notion but just want to QA it with the crowd...
    20 May 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    GM seems to be very devoted to the mild hybrid platform they launched with the LaCrosse and are currently implementing in several other vehicle lines, so my guess would be "Not GM."

     

    Since the Form 10-Q says "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets" my guess is the partner will be a tier one subsystem developer like Bosch, which is coincidentally developing a Gen2 micro hybrid system that will offer a 15% fuel economy bump instead of 8% and presumably require a much better battery.
    20 May 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    John, roger that. So do we think GM basically dropped any collaborative efforts/projects they might have had going with Axion reflected in that foia'ed application Brishwain obtained for us?

     

    IIRC, I thought we had all concluded that likely reasons Axion/GM didn't get that award was because either 1) the "only lithium" spell was still just too strong over at DOE or 2) the Axion/GM joint project was likely to keep going anyway under its own power regardless of win or lose and thus wasn't seen to really need the DOE love money so much...
    20 May 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I don't have any basis to speculate on changes in Axion's project with GM, but I've written enough disclosure documents to be very confident that the 10-Q would have said automaker if the strategic partner was an automaker.

     

    Your recollection of the consensus parallels mine.
    20 May 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Ah, key point. Thanks JP.
    20 May 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    With the BMW news out, it's time to visit some numbers.

     

    What is everyone's guess on the profit in a carbon electrode, if done in volume (say, 1 million/year)?

     

    x volume.

     

    x profit split %age with partner(s).

     

    x multiple.

     

    = stk value/shr, for that line of biz.
    17 May 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Each PbC battery will use 24 to 30 carbon electrode assemblies so its much easier to think in terms of batteries than electrodes. AGM batteries for automotive typical sell of $125 to $150. A PbC can probably command a $100 premium without too much resistance. A 25% to 30% gross margin on the premium is probably a reasonable target range, although it will probably be higher if Axion is doing the work and lower if the transaction structure is closer to a license.
    17 May 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Misread your post, I think, so deleted my reply.
    17 May 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. I assumed Axion, as a component supplier to the battery, would get cost +, not a share of the higher battery sales price. Which is typical for the industry? Iinde---opinion? Of course, maybe it's neither, rather, whatever they negotiate, but I wonder if there are strong typical standards.

     

    Cost +: Say, $75 cost for the total carbon electrode assembly per battery, plus I don't know, 10%? So, $7.50 gross profit, x 50% to Axion, or $3.75 to Axion.

     

    Share of higher completed battery sales price: Say, $100 x 25% x 50% split = $12.50 to Axion.

     

    What a huge difference. The cost + alternative doesn't get to a moonshot valuation, even at 1 million assemblies/year. It does at 50 million, lol.

     

    The % of sales premium helps a lot, but even that one needs huge volume. Maybe 10 million.
    17 May 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Gross margins in the battery industry are typically 20% to 25%. Gross margins for component suppliers like Polypore are as high as 35% or 40%. Profitability estimates will all depend on your assumptions of who does what and who fronts the capital costs. With as many options as Axion has going forward, it's impossible to estimate the profit potential without a ton of assumptions.
    17 May 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Mr I - I would look at "million/year" number as most likely carbon anodes only, supplying a large scale battery manufacturer. A battery may have $50 to $100 (probably optimistic) of carbon anodes. Let's assume $50 per battery (car) with a 25% gross margin, thus a $12.5m of gross profit for 1m cars.

     

    Note this is gross profit, not net profit. I'll let others guess at net profit.

     

    Note, I am making numbers out of thin air; not authoritative. BMW sells between 1 and 2 million cars per year
    http://bit.ly/YPigwt
    Global car sales may be about 80m. http://bit.ly/1084rXv
    17 May 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Rick, so, in your scenario (I'll call it that for ease of use), $50m annual revenue to Axion x sales mutiple of 1 = $50m, /200m shrs = 40 cents/shr of value. Nothing to sneeze at, but defintely not moonshot. At 10m battery assemblies/yr, now we're talk'n.

     

    Or another way, say, $8m earnings from the $12.5m gross profit /200m shrs = 4 cents/shr x 10 multiple = 40 cents/shr of value. Meh.

     

    Something would have to be pumped up to get to the moonshot solely from s/s---the units sold, or the multiples, for example. Early on, the best chance is the multiples. High growth %ages can command high multiples, like 3x sales and 30x earnings, or 4 and 40, so forth. To get to a 20 bagger from the current approx. 25 cents would take 12x sales and 120x earnings.

     

    Yikes. So will need help from the other customer lines, like truck and PC, until s/s reaches many millions/yr. So probably many yrs away, unless the hype cycle kicks into gear and Granville turns into Musk.

     

    BTW, for me anyway, this topic is the basic reason I'm here. Hard to imagine anyone holding AXPW waiting to bag the, say, rise to 50 cents. Nice to broach the topic so it gets out into the light of day and folks can think about the risk/reward more clearly, especially now that the cap raise distraction is gone. Very healthy to revisit and update the investment thesis---"show me why I should invest my hard-earned money in this stk."
    17 May 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I - I hesitate to call sales to a single customer "my scenario". I used a million cars because you asked about "a million".

     

    First, in an auto market of some 80 million vehicles a year, BMW is not a big player - perhaps 2% market share. One could (I'm not) make an argument for a 20% market share; your number per share is 10x higher.

     

    Second, I am not keen on autos. The big boys beat up on the middle fish, and the little fish get beaten up badly. I don't think the auto business is the primary road to success.

     

    Third, I think there are a lot of profitable niches in weight insensitive applications, especially in high cost electricity markets, such as islanded micro-grids, islands, third world, remote power supply for telecom, etc. There are also markets for combination power conditioning and UPS service for grid customers where the customer is exposed to very high and volatile energy costs.

     

    Fourth, there are some limited, but high value, applications in non-auto transportation where weight is less critical. Possibilities include ePower, truck APU, locomotives, hybrid / power conditioning on work boats, etc.

     

    Fifth, there can be some interesting military applications.

     

    Sixth, sorta, I do not think large, true utility scale systems will have a positive outcome for Axion. Utilities are too slow, decisions are too political (PUCs), and only huge brands, such as ABB, Siemens, and GE, have a chance to play in that market. Axion should stop being distracted trying to compete with 10 cent power and crony capitalist giants. As far as I know, we do not own ANY senators or representatives now, and are unlikely to within the next decade.

     

    So, in short, I think there are some great opportunities. BMW is a relatively minor part of that financially, although they could be a great marketing adjunct.
    17 May 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I couldn't think of a succinct description for what you wrote. No intention whatsoever to hijack, misphrase, or oversimplify, etc. Starting to get confusing, so I'll come back to my original thought:

     

    I think with the cap raise done and the BMW news out, it seems like an excellent time to revisit how and when the stk price might get from 25 cents to some high number. IOW, the central point in being here. Reflection and reevaluation can be very good and healthy.

     

    So, just polling the blog to see what people are thinking. I strongly suspect responses would run the gamut from GIGO to a few spreadsheet models---"this is a spec stk and as such it is beyond useful analysis. All that you need to know, in fact, all you can know, is that things look promising in several gazillion $ mkts and Axion will get at least some of those so it's worth $10/shr in a couple, three years. Yee-hawwww" to "I think detailed analysis, that includes all the major elements that we now know, and assumptions for those we don't, is critical to making an informed decision. Here are the outcomes of my models...". I'm not saying one approach is necessarily better than the other, just gathering info.

     

    The ultimate point being to help me see if the stock is a buy or not, now or maybe, say, 6-12 months from now.

     

    Maybe a poll would be a better way to gather the info: "where do u see the stk price in 1, 2 and 5 yrs and what is your breakdown of that price, by auto, rail, truck, PC and other?" Someone might reply, for example, "$1, $3 and $10, with 50% auto, 15% rail, 15% truck, 10% PC and 10% other, for all 3 periods."
    18 May 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    If you really want to do an analysis of likely future value you need to start with an evaluation of each market niche, test a series of high, low and likely market penetration assumptions and then risk weight the whole shebang for the objective likelihood of success and the costs of attaining that success.

     

    The hype cycle is a reality in all businesses and industries. It makes no difference whether the CEO is a huckster or a plodder. The R&D process with its inherent delays and cost overruns always pushes valuations to rock bottom levels. As commercialization begins and production ramps, a forward looking market begins to overestimate long term potential and that sends values to objectively silly levels. When business activity begins to stabilize the market begins to apply metrics based on sales and earnings.

     

    It's a multi-year process and the timeframe when the R&D investors generally pocket their gains. Stocks behave like sine waves, meaning they oscillate over time between undervalued and overvalued. In my experience the periods of under and overvaluation are of comparable duration and magnitude.

     

    If you look at the long term chart for a company like Maxwell you'll see what I'm talking about. Dave Schramm is no fireworks show but the stock has has several dizzying swings from under to over valued and back over the last five years. It will eventually stabilize at some multiple of sales and earnings, but that process won't begin until the market has a accurate grasp of future potential.

     

    Using adult metrics to evaluate a bright college graduate who's just entering the job market rarely works well.
    18 May 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Lots of ways to approach stk valuation.

     

    I'm looking for feedback on how people think we get from here to there, whatever stk price number and time they think "there" is.

     

    I sense a wide disparity on this blog about the expected value and timing of that value of Axion's auto s/s segment. To simplify, I'll ask about just that segment. What do people think it's worth, when, and why? Thanks for your opinions!
    18 May 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Mr I - Sorry if my response was not helpful, and it was probably too long. I think trying to make a breakdown by sector at this point is busywork, but not useful.
    18 May 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I agree Rick. For each market niche the PbC will either be relevant or not relevant. While others might pick a different point I'd classify relevant at >10% market share. Once you gat into the relevant class you need to decide whether the relevance will be marginal or dominant.

     

    Given what we know today, its pretty clear that today's dominant starter battery technologies will slowly fade to irrelevance as better solutions emerge. The PbC is not the only horse in the race.

     

    I believe the PbC will be a strong contender in the micro-hybrid market, but my crystal ball is far too foggy to predict either the relevance level or the timing.
    18 May 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... Way too early for me to figure out anything realistic. Still too much unknown.
    17 May 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

     

    Donald Rumsfeld
    -
    I worry the most about the known unknowns. These are protected by the TG stealth technology. He acquired it for Romulus and improved upon it.
    17 May 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    And named it Reem Us. ha
    17 May 2013, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "There are things we don't know we don't know".

     

    I don't know about that! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 May 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    I thought I understood what he said, until I thought about it!
    17 May 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "There are things we don't know we don't know."

     

    :-) Those would be things we think we know but don't?
    17 May 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Will a thaw in frozen PbC sales follow?

     

    http://bit.ly/10KlmlY

     

    "At 12:42 (ADT) Monday afternoon, the still-frozen waters allowed Nenana Ice Classic set a new record for the latest the ice has gone out in the 97 years since railroad workers started keeping track."

     

    12:42 (ADT)=Alaska Daylight Time = 16:42 EDT
    20 May 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Fort Bliss gets on the microgrid, an energy first for DOD

     

    http://1.usa.gov/12HCLKP

     

    "Bliss' microgrid was paid for by the DOD's Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, which is testing different technologies to make the military more energy efficient and secure, so Bliss is the testing ground for what could eventually be a military-wide effort should Lockheed Martin's design prove successful."
    17 May 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    I have a technical question. On the call TG said that the PbC lasted 4 - 5 times as long as a standard battery. I thought this number was closer to 10 times. In the chart John showed in his November article on Axion, it had a graph that showed lifetimes and it was years as compared to months. A factor of two in the lifetime would seem to be important in how much premium the battery maker can charge for the PbC.

     

    Thanks.
    17 May 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    jcrg - Cycle life is highly dependent on depth of discharge, time left at 0%, and rate of discharge and recharge. It wasn't clear to me what protocol TG was using when he said a PbC lasted 5 times longer, or what he was considering a "standard battery".

     

    In an extreme comparison, a flooded thin-plate LAB starting battery may survive only a few dozen 100% discharges with long periods left at zero charge, while a PbC has been demonstrated at 2500 cycles. Other applications will not be so advantageous.

     

    My recollection of comparing AGM to PbC in start-stop, the difference was months (hundreds to low thousands of cycles) vs many years (10s of thousands of partial cycles).
    17 May 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Cycle life is very closely related to the duty cycle. The 5X comparison is based on a 100% depth of discharge. In a micro hybrid duty cycle, the effective lifecycle difference is several years compared to a few months.
    17 May 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    A friend in California sent me a video of his response to iwinkles post.
    http://bit.ly/14zM0hy
    18 May 2013, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    An appropriate redo::

     

    HT et.al.:

     

    Ya, like a stopped clock is correct twice a day;

     

    Or, like AC goes thru zero each cycle.

     

    And like AC, the potential is there, but some real work has to begin.

     

    All this is different from DEAD, or hopefully even SICK; more like a fetus, or a babe needing time to gestate and/or develop.

     

    The Axionagnostics are like those in the neighborhood watching others buying all the nursery furniture and baby clothes while betting on the Nordstrom cash register sales for such.

     

    The baby will come, hopefully not stillborn, grow up, and finally get dressed in something.

     

    In the meantime, all you neighborhood guys are guessing at what the mother really knows about what is going on inside and of which some IS private (NYOB), all while the gestation period is NOT a simple 9 months, and we really don't know how pregnant she really looks now, nor the maximum size at birth.

     

    18 May, 12:13 PMReply
    18 May 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    Hey BMW, any other ideas? Well let me just introduce you to boring ole' LAB gen. 3.

     

    Engineers Look for Ways to Cut Energy Waste

     

    http://bit.ly/12JBYcq
    18 May 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    From what I can gather, future dilution could reach from 50-100%, resulting in approximately 169.5 to 226 million shares outstanding (though it seems the latter is fairly unlikely). I’m trying to figure out how this might affect future pps. It seems most of us believe Axion has the potential to reach a market cap of $500M to $1B in the coming years, or roughly 17-34 times the current MC of $29.35M.

     

    Not factoring in future dilution, would it then be reasonable to assume a future pps of 17-34 x current pps of .259, or 4.41 to 8.82? And if there’s a 100% dilution (worst case scenario in my mind), a future pps would be approximately 8½ to 17 times current pps, or 2.20 to 4.41? A slightly lesser amount of dilution (likely in my own thinking) would have these numbers be approximately 10-20 x current pps, or approx. 2.60 to 5.20 pps. Given some of the good news in the cc, it seems like a fairly reasonable time line would be for this to happen in the next five years or so.

     

    The potential effects of dilution on future pps may seem somewhat disappointing to some. But I would be delighted to see it play out this way, resulting in a 10-20 bagger. Despite some of the dilution concerns some have expressed, it sure seems the potential payoff and the Axion story is still very much intact. I consider myself mostly a novice when it comes to investing, and would welcome any critiques, and a pointing out of any gaps in my thinking. — Thanks.
    18 May 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, thanks for your thoughts.

     

    The big gap for you to fill would be in how YOU get to your starting point---future mkt cap. Excellent job to consider the future number of shares o/s. It's sometimes overlooked in posts here. As is timing. They all relate to each other---the longer it takes for catalysts to occur, the more stock will be issued, which can lower the upside, and so forth.
    18 May 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    WIO, In my mind if we don't see something (hard path to implementation) in automotive in the next 1 to on the outside 1.5 years it's not going to happen at scale unless some other market carries the load to scale first. Since automotive is really only best for it's contribution in scaling something at that point I'd say license it, if they want it, and write off the sector. I expected the sign we just got in automotive approx. a year ago based on a 2015 CY launch or a little longer. I had hoped for a low volume 2014 CY launch. My target date for when it's introduced remains the same based on where I see the industry going. You can get a general feel for where industry is going as a whole by watching tech. announcements and regulation timing but it's not like having access to individual corporate medium / long range product plans.

     

    I hope automotive hits first because my expectations for the share price would be higher and sooner.

     

    PS Actually having BMW walking you around to potential suppliers is pretty hard path to me. But they all still need to figure out how to mate and make the numbers work.
    18 May 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, just to keep me straight:

     

    By "having BMW walking you around...is pretty hard path to me",

     

    You do mean *firm* path, not *difficult* path, correct?
    18 May 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    48, Yes. I understand why you asked for clarification. :)
    18 May 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    iinde,

     

    How do u get from:

     

    "Since automotive is really only best for it's contribution in scaling something at that point I'd say license it, if they want it, and write off the sector."

     

    to:

     

    "I hope automotive hits first because my expectations for the share price would be higher and sooner.

     

    Thanks.
    19 May 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I share Iindelco's views as to the long term desirability of actively competing in the OEM automotive market. It's terribly capital intensive and a lousy place to try and earn outsized margins, so I'd prefer relationships that give Axion a reasonable profit share but offload the heavy lifting on somebody else.

     

    From a stock market perspective I'm praying for an early automotive win because it's the toughest badge of acceptance to win. Currently the market assumes that the PbC won't be a relevant competitor in any application niches. With an automotive win under its belt the assumption would shift to success in all application niches.

     

    Axion has been grossly undervalued for at least three years and finally reached what seems to be a starting point for its version of the hype cycle. I for one am looking forward to cautioning readers when Axion's stock price gets as disconnected from reality as Tesla's price is today.
    19 May 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Automotive, because it's such a massive market, is more than willing to pay for the most efficient capital to meet its component/system needs. Thus if they want/need PbC they will figure out a way to get Axion the capital and the manufacturing talent to scale the technology into the supply base (It was VERY smart that Axion built this platform to take advantage of a part of the existing capacity to make this a less capital intensive task.). The problem is that after that they are stingy as heck in allowing reasonable margins. They use many tools to determine what the value added is at all the legs of the manufacturing process and will not pay the margins we think this technology deserves EVER. So it is my opinion that if they lead and scale the PbC platform that would be of value in spite of the margins they are willing to pay for the product. If some other industry scales the product then automotive pretty much becomes insignificant to a high degree because you will already have the technology scaled and they still will not want to give you any reasonable margins given your risk of capital. So in short, my only reason to look at automotive as a valuable market is if they anti up the capital and the talent to help scale the application.
    19 May 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    Well said John.

     

    And your statement,

     

    "I for one am looking forward to cautioning readers when Axion's stock price gets as disconnected from reality as Tesla's price is today."

     

    That will be something to behold. Touch it guys, It's dry. No really it's dry.....really! Touch it damn it!

     

    We may need a few sessions with our Axionista psychologist Thotdoc before we can take that big step and touch the paint.
    19 May 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Ii, sounds like we are on the same page about automotive.
    19 May 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I think more than a few of us here recognize directionally what automotive does and doesn't offer.

     

    I remember one of the annual automotive industry EOY reviews about 15 years ago where a CEO of an automotive supplier, I think it was TRW, gave the keynote address and stated that you really had to LOVE being in the automotive parts business because there sure as heck wasn't any money in it.

     

    I happen to think it has pretty much evolved into a government jobs program around the world. Maybe the Chinese(?) turn almost everything into that.
    19 May 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • thegreekgatsby
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Most people here don't (or don't want to) admit, that investing in AXPW carries certain risks, which become obvious when reading the balance sheet.
    Personaly i remain long on AXPW but only because i've "invested" a very small part of my capital.
    20 May 2013, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    TheGreekGatsby: "Most people here don't (or don't want to) admit, that investing in AXPW carries certain risks, which become obvious ...".

     

    Is that presumptuous on your part?

     

    Some of us may not be smart or as wise as you, but OTOH ...

     

    HardToLove
    20 May 2013, 05:40 AM Reply Like
  • thegreekgatsby
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    I own some AXPW shares since 2011 (> 0,80 on avrg) ; the company makes no profit; that's the obvious part.
    You don't have to be wise to understand the risks of a PBC market which does not exist yet.
    I do however hope for the best, since there must be a reason that the company still exists.
    20 May 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    I love it..."touch it, it's dry".

     

    Maybe I need some help, too.

     

    Is it really dry? I want to believe that. It seems dry...but I'm still waiting for a fly to touch down and get stuck.

     

    OK. It's dry. Let me sit with that for a while.
    20 May 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, LOL. We'll all be shocked if the fly takes off.
    20 May 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    FWIW my own very idle SWAG: I think eventually Axion can get to where they're selling 2 million electrodes a year into all markets, at about $100 a set, making $20 per. This means $40 million a year with a PE of 10 gives a mkt cap of $400 million, divided by 200 million shares equals 2 bucks a share. I think that's in the realm of possibility within a 5 year horizon. I wish it were within the 1 year horizon. But that's why I'm here. That and because my ham is now part of the breakfast.
    18 May 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Many here have paid above 75 cents. I sure hope Axion get a PE higher than 10 down the road. Otherwise any S&P blue chip could have given you a near double within a 5 year time frame. Not bad if you just bought in at 25 cents but for others who have been around years - and have costs 2x to 4x that - the the risk reward seems out of balance. Usually with microcaps you can make 10-20x or lose it all. I hope the long termers (some already have been in 3+ years) don't get to see the end of the rainbow only to find their mutual fund matched the same 5-10 year performance.
    20 May 2013, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    fair point bazoook.... being now something of a partial junior long-termer myself, I feel it acutely. I would certainly love to see things attain levels a lot more festive and pyrotechnic, but my SWAG's ambition was to be sober.
    20 May 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    The rise in share count is indeed sobering. I never thought we have to give away so much just to get so little. The Quercus deal was an order of magnitude better than what we are seeing now.

     

    Market is nearly as frothy now as it was then. Hard to think that somehow venture funds don't like the smell of PbC as much when we are on the cusp of commercial adoption (or are we).
    20 May 2013, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    481086,

     

    A lot of stakeholders in AXPW, including its directors and execs, have their average exercise price at 2 dollars. So are you saying that the best these guys can do is to break even on their options?

     

    I personally think a lot of these guys are working hard because they are looking at significant upside, but maybe I am too optimistic!
    20 May 2013, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, I thought the bulk of them were at $1.50... but even there, share price rising to 2 doesn't sound like much of a payday, but I only sought a number that would be quite plausible and a reasonably attainable value (if we gain our share of automotive) as a place to settle...as John has often stated, the swings above and below that encountered on the way there can be of quite an amplitude.

     

    IMHO What we do know pretty well going forward is that SS/MH is going to be big, grid storage is going to be big, trucking and RR can both be sizable. We know less what our share of each will be and when. We do have a competitive, perhaps compelling, and in any case very scalable solution to much of the needs of those markets, but everything still has a way to go to mature. The number of shares that will ultimately need to be further sold is going to be a function of both prevailing share price as well as Axion's financial needs... both of which are in turn functions of sales this year and next year and of Axion's perceived prospects going forward. If sales and visible prospects turn up, our "dilution" (ultimate share count) greatly decreases and it gets a lot easier to envision share prices reaching the higher more gratifying of the single digits. Conversely, it would seem, the longer we have to go without, the more shares that must be sold, the harder the story gets. If only we could bag something big it sure would help.

     

    Bottom line ISTM is we need deals soon, we need sales soon--We need some visible wins. This year.
    20 May 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    48 that's been the need and story forever. good luck
    20 May 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    48: "... function of both prevailing share price as well as Axion's financial needs... both of which are in turn functions of sales this year and next year and of Axion's perceived prospects going forward".

     

    And this gets me to thinking of my rant again. Since "prevailing share price" s/b a result of a forward-looking mechanism ("the market"), "expected" should be added into the "functions of sales ..." clause. I think TG should devote a small amount of thought and resources to assuring that "the market" has "reasonable" expectations by not "sequestering" :-)) too much information that he is free to share.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 May 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    On the share price front, I'd like to start thinking from another perspective.

     

    The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.

     

    Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...

     

    That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?

     

    I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?

     

    ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).

     

    If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?

     

    HardToLove
    18 May 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you've captured a lot of my thinking as well... plus, there's got to be one heck of a lot of cost curve traversed by the time we get to my 2M/yr (20 electrode lines cranking 400 each per day)
    18 May 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    I made some quick tweaks to my cost spreadsheet to reflect electrode production. I came up with $86 as the cost of the electrodes for a 30HT battery. Very rough.

     

    First thing, I would expect that a 30HT might be too large for the application but it does add a degree of conservatism. The other and more important question relates to the cost of the corrosion barrier.

     

    You may recall that I've been using $50 as a conservative assumption for the corrosion barrier ($4/square foot). $50 of a total cost of $86 vs. $50 of a PbC battery that sells for $400 are very different things. While the latter analysis may still provide info, I'm not sure the former provides any useful information for us.

     

    Nevertheless, I'll try to work backwards. If we can say $36 + the separator + overhead (I'll assume 20% of the identified costs) and we are looking for a 40% margin which would be split 50/50 between the two parties and you want to price at $100 then the separator must cost $14. That is $36+$14+10overhead=$60 which yields $20 each for Axion and the partner.

     

    If $14 doesn't seem like a practical number for the separator then I think it gets clear that $100 won't work for an electrode.

     

    BTW, the other moving part is the margin. If 25% margin is about right for an AGM company, I think 40% margin is very reasonable for a unique electrode that is highly differentiated. Given the way Mr. Granville has proceeded so far, he might be expecting a higher number, particularly since he'll have to share it. Of course, it can be argued that BMW is a special case and subsequent customers would be priced for higher margins.

     

    My guess is the electrodes would be priced closer to $150. That, plus $97 in other COGS for a large AGM maker plus a 25% margin would work out to a PbC price to BMW of $330. And, that price lets the partner add the 25% markup on top of its share of the markup of the electrodes. Disallow that and your close to $300.

     

    I think either of those prices should be very, very attractive to BMW if they are really serious about getting the PbC in their cars. The AGM partner could live with it. I think after all the pain Axion has gone through, Mr. Granville probably can as well.

     

    On a separate note, I've been a skeptic regarding whether BMW is really serious about the PbC since the regulators aren't stepping up to the plate. However, some factors that might be changing things are the ailing economy in Europe (even BMW owners care about gas mileage to some extent) and especially the change in Japan's economic competitiveness. With Toyota basically owning the fuel efficiency category and the yen plummeting like a rock, you've got to think that BMW should be very worried about Lexus. Maybe BMW is coming to the conclusion that it needs Axion. Stranger things have happened.
    19 May 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Regarding the cost of the corrosion barrier, I've heard it referred to 'grafoil' in one of the past APCs. Searching the internet shows rolls of flexible grafoil priced ~$3-$7/Kg FWIW.

     

    http://bit.ly/14G3tVD
    19 May 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Grafoil is a common gasket material made from graphite flakes that make it a great conductor of electricity. If you impregnate grafoil with paraffin it becomes a great acid barrier. You don't need much thickness to protect the current collector, but the acid barrier has to be flawless.

     

    If Axion can find a conductive coating to protect the current collector, it should reduce costs and improve performance significantly. Heaven only knows when or if a suitable coating can be developed.
    19 May 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    APMarshal: With the dollar rocketing, we might need to include currency conversion losses in there somewhere. I've been peeking at the AUD/USD cross and in the wek of 7/23/11 it was US$1.0995 close. Last week it closed at US$0.9736 - a huge drop in currency standards.

     

    The "basket" index, DXY which includes the Euro (6 currencies, probably the Yen too, but I don't know), closed at $79.26 week of 1/30/13 and now sits at $84.34 close last week - again a huge move by currency standards.

     

    The nasty thing is that buying carbon for here, it's a boon but selling anything from here it's a negative.

     

    Buying and selling to/from "over there" ameliorates some of these issues.

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    John: Wasn't that the diamond-based barrier? Ah, maybe it's my memory is shot again.

     

    HardToLove
    19 May 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    One of the Axion patents mentions several potential corrosion barrier candidates including diamond film and titanium suboxide. While I'd expect the corrosion barrier to be a hot topic of future R&D, I think the focus for now is optimizing and refining the current process instead of working on a next generation.
    19 May 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/TJL5FQ

     

    This has probably been posted before, but one thing caught my eye, and given that Bosch is one of our more high-quality hoped-for dance partners, I found the congruence in their thinking as expressed in this article with a lot of our own to be reinforcing and hopeful.

     

    This is what particularly caught my eye though:

     

    "DC/DC converter to guarantee proper voltage for devices such as radio and navigation."

     

    As I think we've all concluded, that very component is one of the uh, key pieces to the Axion-based SS puzzle for any automotive win...
    18 May 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    05/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog(up later).
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 261558, AvTrSz: 4087
    Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2599
    # Buys, Shares: 40 157799, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2613
    # Sells, Shares: 20 88760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2573
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2598
    Buy:Sell 1.78:1 (60.3% “buys”), DlyShts 92700 (35.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.44%

     

    Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days:
    $0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48
    $0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.

     

    With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.

     

    I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.

     

    Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.

     

    Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal “retail” size.

     

    Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has “spiked” to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the “new” market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.

     

    http://bit.ly/13x5Pn6

     

    However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.

     

    My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    18 May 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    A blog from a vs nuke perspective

     

    The Cost of Wind Part I

     

    http://bit.ly/12MgdJ2

     

    The Cost of Wind Part II

     

    http://bit.ly/YSWdoy
    19 May 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    LG Chem factory in Holland will finally start producing lithium ion batteries

     

    May 05, 2013

     

    http://bit.ly/1159IOd

     

    "will start producing lithium ion batteries for cars in July, the Korean company announced Sunday, May 5.

     

    ...

     

    After selling only 7,671 Volts in 2011, General Motors reported selling 23,361 in 2012. The company has forecast sales of as many as 36,000 Volts and other plug-in hybrids for 2013."
    19 May 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8771) | Send Message
     
    I think we are starting to see the types of opportunistic charging technologies being added to vehicles that might stimulate interest in the PbC battery. I say this because it is my belief that as more functions in the vehicle are supported by electric motors and thus there are more opportunities to turn off the ICE, the need for better storage and redundancy start to IMO become essential. Especially some of the safety related ByWire changes.

     

    New diesel for MY2014 BMW 5 Series in US; priced below hybrid model

     

    "Brake Energy Regeneration, the Auto Start-Stop functionality, and ECO PRO mode, the suite of standard-fitted BMW EfficientDynamics technologies now also includes a coasting mode (which disengages the powertrain while coasting), and the ECO PRO Route function, which can be selected via the Navigation system."

     

    http://bit.ly/YTnc3s
    19 May 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "the most exciting slow-motion event " ?

     

    http://bit.ly/YTEXj1
    19 May 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Guys,

     

    I have been looking at the executive comp package attached with the SEC filings and it looks like TG has a sweet deal from Axion: +300k a year and a 750/month car allowance. While I don't necessarily see this as outrageous pay in absolute terms, I think that for a company like Axion which is just in its early stages and not turning profitable yet, it could save some considerable cash by renegotiating the pay package of its execs in the short term. Once the company becomes a lot more profitable, then everyone makes out like a bandit because of a soaring stock price, and the compensation issue becomes redundant anyway...

     

    Any views?

     

    thanks
    20 May 2013, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, especially when shares are being sold at around $.264 (plus warrant coverage) to pay that salary and those of his lieutenants. What we did get was the executive team including their recent bonuses in the investment. You and I might consider this to be a lesser alignment of interests than we would desire, but that is what we have. I'll be the first to admit that if the company makes money for us investors that I'll be much more forgiving. Nevertheless, I consider the company's poor performance in selling and inability to foresee that performance to be the reason for this recent financing. I'll always remember it as the "Granville Round".
    20 May 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    I must say, as it stands, there is a highly probable chance that Axion will indeed succeed (in my own view at least) in commercializing its technology on a profitable base, so this is the reason I am not too worried about the cash pay to executives, at least not at this point. However, I know it is an issue that has been brought up so many times on this concentrator, mostly by people who had a vested interested in the company collapsing (trolls), but also by a few respected members as well!
    20 May 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Corvus (packages Dow-Kokam Lithium cells) in the news again

     

    World’s Biggest Hybrid Ferry Set To Sail

     

    http://bit.ly/10InzOX

     

    "Corvus is promising that the batteries, which can be charged in 30 minutes, will last more than ten years and will pay for themselves long before that time period ends. That’s in part due to reduced fuel use, but perhaps more significantly because the batteries will provide power during high-engine stress periods, when moving into, around and out of the harbor"

     

    from the linked PDF:

     

    "advanced lithium polymer battery solution"

     

    See also: http://bit.ly/13BnNVE
    20 May 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I can say that I just worked on a project that evaluated high rate lithium ion batteries. There are lots of claims of 25C-rate batteries. And, yes, you can do this a few times but if you do it a lot, the batteries heat up and die. We found that C/5 rate was maximum if the battery system was designed with lithium pouch cells, large aluminum heat sinks between cells, and a massive actively cooled cold plate that could sink the heat from the cells.

     

    Guess were the cost and energy efficiency ended up?
    20 May 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    "Guess where the cost and energy efficiency ended up?"

     

    NASA or DOD league?

     

    Were the cooling plates made of unobtainium?
    20 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    The vehicle that this was going into was expensive and that is all I can say. Your guesses are not far off... It does work, just not for John Q. Public.
    20 May 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Boeing.

     

    ;-)
    20 May 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7609) | Send Message
     
    We pull 1-3C continuous and 5-10C peak from our LiFePO4 prismatic cells without issue for thousands of miles in the DIY EV conversion world. No active cooling at all.
    20 May 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    No, jrp, I don't think you are pulling 3C continuous. You really use up you whole battery charge in 20 minutes? Recharge, and go for another 20 minutes? Not much range, eh?
    20 May 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    WhaBam!