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  • Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 358 comments
    May 21, 2013 6:53 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits - long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization - create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

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    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 5/17/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 5/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (358)
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  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    #1
    21 May 2013, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Segundo
    21 May 2013, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    That was quick. Up early.
    21 May 2013, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    For contrast.

     

    Eos Raises $15M for Zinc-Air Grid Batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/1180Tco
    21 May 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Its nice to see Dr. Buiel contributing to the discussion again. I look forward to his technical contributions.
    I haven't commented on the latest (negative) discussions about marketing and sales. I was extremely happy to see that the one board member who understands marketing and sales contributed an additional $750,000 of his own money into the last cash raise. This is a board member with more experience in developing products, selling products, and growing companies than any of the management team. And his response to slow sales, a discouraged stockholder base, and a cash strapped company was to put up even more money.

     

    I try to live by the motto that actions speak louder than words. In my humble opinion the actions of Mr. Averill speaks louder than the words of outsiders. I couple this with the words spoken by TG.
    BMW wants us to work with one of their suppliers.
    PowerCubes will be sold this year.
    We are working with an industry giant on the grant to be announced this July.
    More ePower trucks will be ordered.
    NS slowdown is not a battery issue.
    Hiring more sales staff to handle the inquiries from companies that have products that need the PbC and have the resources to pay.
    Working with large grid applications.

     

    I compare those statements with the fact that the RoseWater product , residential HUB, can't even be sold due to electronic issues. This is a product pushed by RoseWater. Not a product that uses the PbC to its full advantage.

     

    To me its seems apparent that Axion has gone back to its roots. We are continuing to implement the strategy with our big players and we are pursuing new sales relationships with smaller players that have a need for the product. How any shareholder thinks that producing PbCs in quantity, for retail sales that might not develop, is a good strategy is beyond me.

     

    Each person has their own ideas as to what constitutes a good business plan. I respect that. I simply believe Mr. Averill knows a good plan when he sees one.
    21 May 2013, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    My view of the marketing process from ePower's perspective has been an eye opener. The amount of hands-on engineering and technical support that even a small customer requires is amazing. A good salesman is just the beginning of the process. The real heavy lifting is done by the support engineers who have to develop systems that make the battery do the work the customer needs.

     

    Once you understand the magnitude of the required marketing support, it's easy to see why Axion is picking its markets and potential customers very carefully.
    21 May 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, there is one other point to consider to Averill putting up another $750 k and I am surprised it hasn't appeared already so I will put it out for discussion:

     

    I think as a condition for the financing, the BOD had to put up $1M of their own money... the more important questions is did the BOD do this to keep control of the company?
    With as many new shares as they are issuing, AND - having to approve the 100 M new shares by shareholder vote, was the BOD forced to do this to maintain a majority vote ?
    21 May 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    John, The point here is that the salesman with a technical product is really more an engineering function than a sales function. An engineer plus if you will. He/She has to understand the product fully, understand the targeted applications and how the product can be integrated, he needs to know the customer and what their technical challenges are along with their targeted metrics, he needs to understand the competition and their strengths/weaknesses along with his own. And so forth. These are really more engineering positions vs what we often think of as sales/marketing positions.
    21 May 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    If you go back to 2010, you would find that:

     

    BMW wants us to work with one of their suppliers.
    PowerCubes will be sold this year.
    We are working with an industry giant on the grant to be
    announced this July.
    More ePower trucks will be ordered.
    NS slowdown is not a battery issue.

     

    were all in the works back then except for the ePower truck. However, Axion built and displayed a Volvo truck with a battery powered air conditioning system and also discussed hybrid traction systems for heavy transport vehicles.
    21 May 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    "I think as a condition for the financing, the BOD had to put up $1M of their own money.."

     

    LT,
    First I don't know how you got from "stand alone financing" to BOD was forced to do this. Even assuming its true it does not change my arguments that Bob Averill supports the way Axion is conducting business. He is not the type to throw good money after bad. He is the type to help lead the company to success.

     

    If you are going to make assumptions it would be nice to know what they are based on.
    21 May 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Technical Sales folks have existed for decades if not centuries. It's not a new category, nor a new challenge.
    21 May 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    There were conditions to the financing....AXPW obtained the financing provided they did certain things...another condition was to expand sales and marketing.

     

    btw...I am not making it up. It is a valid point. May I ask you back, why now and not last year or the year before ?
    21 May 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    ED,
    I have been following Axion closely from before 2010.
    In 2009 Axion was poised to demonstrate with a power company in NY, but the project went south when the developer went broke.

     

    In 2009 Axion joined with Exide to have a reliable tier one battery supplier as a partner. Exide got greedy and decided to take all of the 38 million dollar government grant that would have sped all the Axion development up a couple years. Instead of caving in and getting bought by Exide, Axion obtained financing and kept moving forward.

     

    Axion did work with GM (an industry giant) to obtain a grant but it did not get granted. A new grant application ( with an industry giant) on phase two of a different grant is expected this July.

     

    Until this year the NS project has always been about the battery and whether it would work.

     

    I'm not sure what your complaint is really about. Axion has had issues and has continued to move ahead. All of us would have liked a customer to test and buy the Axion battery. You are of the opinion that a $400 lead acid battery is somehow easy to sell. I'm not so sure about that.

     

    Until recently technology did not allow the carbon plates to be made without a lot of manual labor. Perhaps now the price and benefits can match the market. Only time will tell.

     

    You are in a position where you might know of lost sales opportunities. You have not stated that you know for certain Axion lost sales opportunities. We are always looking for the truth here on the concentrator. However, in my limited experience I have found that it is difficult to know all the facts of why decisions were or were not made in complicated buying situations.

     

    I simply am looking at the present facts and see ample opportunity. By that I do not see risk free results. If the battery is what you say it is then it will find a home.
    21 May 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Fut, a truly great string of comments...

     

    But am curious about this: "How any shareholder thinks that producing PbCs in quantity, for retail sales that might not develop, is a good strategy is beyond me."

     

    I'm not sure anyone here has advocated that. I believe some of us think the PbC should now be made available (online, say) at retail to the eager hobbyist, but I don't know that that would have to entail any huge up front costs or involve a big footprint. If they sell in the dozens/month that way then great, if it's hundreds even better, but let the demand determine whatever pace on that front. It certainly doesn't need to be any kind of bet the farm strategy---just a way to enable the PbC to get out there so people can start to learn about it and utilize it and have a knowledge base begin to build around it...

     

    Just like with ePower it could lead to some interesting things.
    21 May 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    What if OMY bought ten of them, claimed to run tests on them, abused them, exploded a couple of them and then published a report?
    21 May 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    <jveal ... We would then know even more about OMY than the battery.
    21 May 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    jveal,

     

    That is a very interesting thought and one that I believe could be the most important reason that Axion decided not to make the PbC available without adult supervision in the beginning!
    21 May 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    To ripoff WC: "this is not the end, it's not even the beginning of the end, but perhaps... it is the end of the beginning..." ;)
    21 May 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    48,
    I am not sure why the PbC isn't available as you suggest. But I am pretty sure that the idea has not escaped a start up company like Axion. My guess is that the product needs to be tweaked to maximize each application. So the customers are picked for quantity needed in the future and ability to succeed. The Axion staff is then assigned and the product is engineered to work correctly. I might be wrong but I thought that is what TG was saying about expanding the sales / engineering staff.

     

    It just isn't a product to be disbursed willy nilly. There is to much to lose in big customers for a bad "tiny" company to wreck on their own.
    Whether we agree or not it is the Axion strategy. The consistency of Axion to do this tells me that it is working for Axion.
    21 May 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    Now you have really confused me.
    Im sure you read where the stand alone financing was required. I simply don't see where you have read this. Clarification would be helpful.
    As to your question. Why what?
    Axion did not need stand alone financing last year. They had an investment group. The shareholders here were suggesting this year that insiders should show support. They did.
    How can you possibly make something evil out of that?
    21 May 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    EB,

     

    That is funny. I feel like for most investors, the standard BMW and NS golden carrot argument is trotted out anytime the realization of miniscule sales and missed projections come up. Sobering to hear an insider admit that not a ton has changed in past 3 years, except for the stock price.
    21 May 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Let's not deny that the BMW and NSC programs have moved forward since then. C'mon, until this month for BMW and December 2012 for NSC, we weren't even sure the PbC had passed any tests. Now it's a high probability we will get the design wins. It's not just a carrot being dangled in front of us.
    21 May 2013, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Fut, I'm not trying to beat the drum too loudly for this, but I do think it's time, especially now that Axion has made the transition away from development stage. The reasons you cite may well have been valid in the past. And I am loathe to seriously question Axion's strategy. But things *are* moving forward and IMHO this might now be a productive step. In other words, maybe it's finally time to "trust the battery." Especially in view of the success of the continuous roll process. But sure, perhaps not yet. At least begin to publish the full specs now though. Give the universe of potential customers something more meaty to chew on. Also, I imagine there likely exist different versions of the PbC, each tailored to a different part of the energy/power spectrum, but that shouldn't preclude Axion's offering the most common version(s) online, if and when they do...
    21 May 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    On the idea of Axion selling PbC's to a retail audience...

     

    I use AGM batteries all the time in my art business (outdoor festivals often don't offer electricity, and the better ones also ban generators). The "portable power" units currently sold share the usual drawbacks, dreadfully slow recharge times and a short service life for the way we customers use them. A typical day in the field means that I will exhaust even the larger available units down to a very low state of charge, and they will need all night to recapture a useable charge (at which point we will once again run them to death). As we have seen with the SS numbers, using batteries (other than the PbC) like this is a formula for high costs, poor service, and short battery lifespans.

     

    These things are also quite heavy, and the weight advantage for the PbC appeals to tired old artists having to schlep them over hill and dale every weekend.

     

    These portable power units (Sears makes truckloads of them under their DieHard brand, and Black and Decker sells them in all sizes) represent a potential retail market, but probably the mass market would be accessible only after the technology is thoroughly commercialized and the economies of scale realized.

     

    BUT small businessmen like myself who simply need a battery that can quickly recharge and last for a long life under the abuse of deep discharges might be a good market that scales well to an Axion-sized company.
    21 May 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    jveal - Why would anyone care if OMY bought ten batteries? Even if he didn't buy them, he can claim nonsense. Oh, that's right, he does. He has incessantly proved his lack of authority, competence, and rationality. Why would anyone believe him?

     

    Lead batteries are sold by the billions. Some are abused. Big f!@#$% deal.

     

    The cone of silence surrounding PcB is not helpful. Remember Eestor? Rossi (cold fusion)? Bloom Energy? Sheerwind? Might as well be a cousin to Bernie Madoff. Everything is so secret, nobody can look inside the black box. I hate having Axion imitate the scammers and keeping everything (NDAs, specifications, samples, etc.) a secret. It makes the company look unprofessional, in my mind.

     

    I am working on a third world refrigeration project. Hope to get some MIT guys to help me. It's more about doing good than making money. I have been trying to get Axion to sell me a battery - I think a PbC might be the best technology for this. A lot depends on price. I still do not have a price.
    [Note: This is a very small project. Yeah, it might be millions or billions in a few years, but probably won't, so don't get excited - yet. Between 1 and 2 billion people do not have refrigeration now.]
    Let the sun shine in! As Moses might have said, "Let my batteries go!"
    21 May 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    at least there would be further disclosure about how they operate.
    http://bit.ly/18goeJs
    the reverse result does sometimes occur.
    21 May 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Rick, all the best on the project! Thank you for your efforts.
    21 May 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Kudos on a very useful effort. GL on getting it done and having good results!

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. A long way to go....
    22 May 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Rick,
    Sounds like a great project. I remember when I was a kid (no, there weren't any dinosaurs) we had a camper refer that ran off a small flame from the propane tank.
    22 May 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Advill
    , contributor
    Comments (2182) | Send Message
     
    Question about this argument is; Can it be profitable for Axion?, Is it possible to have a final consumer product with engineering work already on?, It seems that a salesman / engineer can handle just a few customers....yes I know that PC ´s started that way but I want to be shareholder of the IBM in batteriess not the Sinclair one.

     

    Rgds.
    22 May 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    SD < "we had a camper refer that ran off a small flame from the propane tank" ... Sounds like a design similar to natural gas fueled refrigerators and central air conditioners that were pretty commonplace in gas producing areas "back in the day." Heat the refrigerant gas a tad to raise the pressure in a small space and feed the pressurized gas into a larger diameter tubing coil for cooling. Worked pretty well as long the NG didn't flame out.

     

    Have vivid memory of seeing a NG wellhead connection where pipe carrying geothermally heated methane under high pressure was downsized diameter-wise for connection to a shutoff valve and pressure gauge. Following installation of the monitoring and control equipment, the gas line diameter was restored to its earlier size for transport to processing/market. Although located in full sun and temperature was 100+ degrees when I viewed the installation, the first three-four feet of the expanded diameter gas line was coated in ice.
    22 May 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I don't buy this. A custom lithium ion system is $1000/kWh + NRE. If you call EnerDel right now they are six months behind on new application development even at these prices. I think all of JCI and A123 customers are now going to EnerDel which is great for them. Maybe Axion is also very busy but I don't think so and my feeling is that the right people would make Axion a success.
    23 May 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    I've been wondering just where the Power Cube/Viridity/PJM project is going.

     

    I understood that the whole rate structure issue was being evaluated but thought that had all been settled.

     

    So the question is "Is there a market?" and if there is a market "Where are the customers?".
    21 May 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    Good question Albert.

     

    No pricing has been released that would allow us to determine if any profitability exists in using a PowerCube. If a company bought 20% more storage than was needed, could they make money using the viridity/ PJM system and still have enough storage for themselves? I suspect they can. But is it enough to justify the higher PbC costs over lead acid? Answer unknown.
    Since we are selling a couple PowerCubes this year and talking a couple MW storage system I suspect the answer is yes. But again it might just be more test marketing.
    Hopefully we can find out more as time goes on.
    21 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The biggest problem with stationary storage is customers who don't understand their needs or the overall value proposition. It's not just an Axion problem. It's an industry problem - a problem that's exacerbated by a plethora of willing sellers pounding the table on the technical and economic features they think important. There are lots of willing sellers ready to pitch different products, but very few buyers willing to spend their own money on million dollar hardware purchases they don't understand.
    21 May 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Futurist: I still think the PC is *not* designed to be an income producer as its primary purpose. I believe it is a power quality and availability product that has the ability to generate some offsetting revenues for its users. The big money will come from reduced down-time, curtailment, ... of business operations.

     

    I don't foresee any sales, near-term at least, that would be some industrial customer buying because "we can generate income with this".

     

    For utilities, the deferment of capex (infra-structure upgrades) may be the equivalent of income and should have good sales there based on savings and, effectively, is equivalent to income. Smoothing regulator-mandated renewables would also be a good catalyst I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    21 May 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    PowerCube market in the very near term is most likely renewable energy project installations with some prospect for sales to industrial plants and utilities (for pilot projects). Subsidies for wind energy power projects which had been slated to end with 2012 have apparently been extended into 2013 and apply to all projects started (vice completed) before year end. The same may apply to PV projects. Both of those renewable energy projects might also be associated with telecommunication towers.
    21 May 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    HTL. I agree that the main focus of the PbC PowerCube is not as a moneymaker. However, it has an added cost. It also has a longer lifespan. If it can produce some income in the meantime the TCO (total cost of ownership) could be equal or less than a flooded lead acid array. If the Power Company wants a major user to help be part of the grid solution then PowerCube could be a solution. Many ifs.

     

    But simply no data yet.
    21 May 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, I called Vani the other day on behalf of a client who wanted to test the PbC as a starter battery for his small fleet of demilitarized Leopard II tanks. Vani was a good deal more open to the idea than I expected.
    21 May 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Great, One of Axion's first missions is getting "tanked".

     

    On a more serious note keep us informed on the outcome. Removing the chastity belt from the Axion Warehouse might be a good sign. Also, When he calls back, put in a good word for Rick K. You might just start another trend.

     

    Any interest in technical sales on the side? Least they could do is buy you dinner once in awhile! :)
    21 May 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Those kinds of arrangements would really complicate my life and theirs. With five years of separation under my belt I can speak freely about how I interpret disclosed developments in Axion's business. I can also speak with a good deal of authority on the history of the PbC and the development of a strategy that Axion continues to follow with more success than I had hoped for and longer development timelines than I could have imagined.

     

    If I were in regular communication with Axion, there's a significant risk that I might gain access to non-public information. I'd also have to disclose the nature and magnitude of the relationships, which could get very complicated. On balance, getting closer to Axion would be very dangerous for everybody, including the public stockholders.

     

    Sometimes the best thing I can do is maintain adequate distance even though I'd really love to have the inside skinny and a potential revenue stream.
    21 May 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Tanks? Next up: PbC fired railguns!!! FTW!

     

    (actually, half serious. USN already electrifying CVN launch catapults, looking to electrify much more in future, from propulsion to lasers to railguns. What will be needed critically is robust storage with good power characteristics and fast recharge)
    21 May 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Que lastima. Your rounds give you some great contacts. Plus I think you'd find it an interesting very part time job given your interests. Just imagine if E-Power turns into a 20K unit/year contract 4-5 years out. You may get nominated for North America's most competitive salesman of the decade! :)
    21 May 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Since it looks like I'll be accepting an engagement as ePower's legal counsel, I expect to have a lot of skin in that game. It may limit my ability to be a gossipy observer, but some sacrifices must be made.

     

    Besides, I'd much rather help build a company than comment on it's progress.
    21 May 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John! That didn't take too long after your return. Good people are still hard to find.

     

    That's going to be one interesting program. And oh, do me a favor, be nice to your battery supplier. ;)
    21 May 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    Congrats John and envy.... I'm sure it's going to be very gratifying to be there first hand in such an enterprise and watch and assist them as they take something you helped create years ago and turn it to much beneficial and money-making use... And we here look forward to hearing good things! From the uh, company I mean. ;)
    21 May 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I fully expect that ePower will have far fewer NDA issues than we've seen with Axion because they're focused on an entirely different market.
    21 May 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    May the horns and lights of ePower go forth loudly and brightly throughout the land!
    21 May 2013, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    There is no other more deserving than you to have the front row seat!

     

    Congrats, I love how this story is proceeding!

     

    RBrun357
    21 May 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    Congrats JP.

     

    You deserve it for sure. You likely will make out very well in your Axion investment, albeit in a roundabout way. I hope EPower grows to become a public enterprise in the next 5 to 10 years.
    22 May 2013, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    We will miss your sage counsel here, JP. May you and your new clients have good fortune in the coming years.
    22 May 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I don't plan on going anywhere and will continue commenting on the battery industry just as I have in the past. I will need to be a bit more circumspect when it comes to discussing ePower and its relationship with Axion, but beyond that I don't see any constraints on my writing. In fact I'm working on a piece right now that discusses the dark side of Tesla's masterful short squeeze.
    22 May 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    48: With the increased usable range of the V2 PbC, and thus more available "energy", the PbC might be a good fit all around: fast (re)charge, 1/3 less weight than LAB/AMG, good temperature tolerance, no fire hazard, long-lifetime, ...

     

    We can hope. *That* would be product validation, for sure.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Congrats John! I know your background will be a valuable asset to them.

     

    Another success for American ingenuity will be seen just a few years down the road!

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations. :-) May "the Force" be with you in helping develop ePower into a robust, growing commercial enterprise.
    22 May 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    Hope it works out the way you wish,

     

    G
    22 May 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Congrats on working with ePower, should be an exciting gig.
    22 May 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    JP, congrats on the ePower engagement. Hope everybody wins big.
    22 May 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    The batteries that were sent to the test lab in Germany would probably have been tested using the VDA specification. Do we know if they were PbC or Advanced Lead Acid?
    21 May 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Reading between the lines, it is most like advanced lead acid and not PbC that is of interest in Germany... PbC would not do well on the VDA testing. It is specific to lead acid batteries.
    21 May 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    So are you saying that Europe would be testing advanced LAB's from Axion or that the testing might not be the VDA test you reference. I can't for the life of me think that BMW is looking to Axion for anything other than PbC. Makes no sense to me.
    21 May 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Buiel,

     

    Why would Axion ship AGM batteries to BMW/Germany when they can get those from anyone? What are we missing "between the lines"?
    21 May 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    The testing lab that the batteries went to follow strict VDA testing specifications. It is a qualification / quality control testing lab. If you put PbC batteries on this test, it would fail miserably. Lithium ion batteries would also fail miserably because it is very specific to lead acid batteries. The VDA automotive battery testing specification is published so you can get this information and review it. It involves a whole set of tests designed to qualify lead acid batteries and includes cold cranking, over discharge, charge recovery, etc. testing. Voltages are very fixed and so are currents. I'm not even sure how you would do this testing on PbC.

     

    If BMW wanted to test PbC batteries, they would almost surely go to BMW in Munich directly. This is the same for lithium ion batteries. The have different test equipment and they would have to develop different testing procedures to test these batteries. It is very unlikely that they would farm this out to an outside lab. That is just not what BMW would do nor what the lab would do. The weight that was found, if you include packaging, is very close to weight of L5 AGM batteries:

     

    L5 AGM = 27 kg X 20 batteries = 540 kg + pallet/wrapping

     

    Weight of shipment = 560 kg

     

    Any takers?

     

    L5 PbC batteries would be 20-30% less weight.

     

    Ed.
    23 May 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    So why on earth would BMW want or need to test AGM batteries from Axion? It doesn't make sense to me.
    23 May 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Why would batteries be sent to BMW for testing if a 3rd party is testing them?
    23 May 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    If BMW is/was considering purchase of PbC batteries from Axion ISTM testing of Axion AGM batteries would be one path of testing procedure.

     

    PbC batteries are AGM batteries except for replacement of negative electrode with Axion C electrode are they not? Isn't that a fundamental part of the Axion long-term business model -- to make electrodes suitable for drop in replacement of Pb electrodes on already established AGM manufacturing lines? Testing of Axion AGM batteries would confirm that non-C components of PbC batteries are "up to standard" for AGMs and eliminate possibility that PbC performance is not attributable to more change than just replacement of the negative electrode.
    23 May 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Buiel, I, like some others here, feel it makes no sense for BMW to be testing flooded or VRLA batteries from Axion since their battery operation is IMO antiquated. By this I don't mean it's poor from a battery technology standpoint for development or low volume specialty batteries but from an automotive OE perspective it's not efficient enough to compete.

     

    So a theoretical question, Would it make sense for BMW to test Axion AGM batteries to the standard you suggest to get data to ensure the down stream processes that are common to both the AGM and PBC batteries are verified against a known standard? This would in effect be part of a certification process for the battery plant? Any value in this at all before field testing or a low volume application award ?
    23 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, We're thinkin' the same things here. ;)
    23 May 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv - seems a bit of a stretch to me. Besides the anodes being different, there is a different number of cathodes (because the anodes are thicker). It is a different product aimed a different market.

     

    The ease of "drop in" carbon anodes is probably somewhat exaggerated on these concentrators. There are different quantities of electrodes, electrolyte, different soldering parameters, different primary charging protocol, possibly different insertion and compression pressures, and probably other items I am not familiar with. The basic process is intended to be very similar and therefore easily scalable in other factories. However, an operator just can't switch back and forth between standard AGMs and PbC batteries willy nilly.
    23 May 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, Iindelco: As you suggest, ISTM baseline establishment ought to be part of some protocol to assure that observed changes are attributable to just the electrode and/or acid changes associated with the carbon electrodes.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    HTL, It's the only thing I can think of. But, I agree with Rick K. that it's a stretch. But not as much of a stretch as thinking BMW will be buying VRLA batteries from Axion.

     

    But I do wonder how far Axion got with their carbon additives testing and if BMW might be interested in some of that data. Dr. Buiel might know how far Axion took that program(s).

     

    Edit: BTW, I always wondered if Exide wasn't playing games with Axion not only on the PbC but to also steal some of their expertise in carbon additives.
    23 May 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    While I can't believe that BMW would send a regular (Flooded or AGM) battery from Axion out for independent testing and not a PbC.

     

    I thought that may be way out of line.
    As they are considering a two battery system could this have been testing for the other battery?
    For instance if BMW is going to implement the two battery system in the US, might they plan on buying both batteries from Axion?
    23 May 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, That's another way to look at it. My only thought is that I don't think the Axion flooded battery would be the lowest cost based on their old plant. I'd never say never though. Maybe BMW wants an all from one source system? No finger pointing.
    23 May 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    I do apologize for not understanding the origin of this discussion!

     

    Which twenty battery shipment are we talking about?
    How do we know which lab they were sent to?
    How do we know the shipping weight?
    Is there a link or discussion on a previous concentrator that I missed?

     

    Again, apologies to the better informed for my confusion!
    23 May 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    froggey, interesting speculation. Reduces "finger pointing" about who is responsible for battery failure.

     

    But, I am not convinced.
    23 May 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    42,
    There was an import invoice discovered coming from a testing facility in Europe to Axion a while back. The quantity was calculated by the shipping weight, it was discussed at great length in a previous APC mostly because of the 3rd party testing comment made by TG (I think?).
    24 May 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Bueil,

     

    You make a solid case about VDA testing procedures.. But why would Axion be sending out AGM batteries for testing in Germany?

     

    Is this some kind of misdirection or are well all missing something else.

     

    I didn't think Axion AGM batteries would be in demand based on Axion's microscopic profile in this area that is already well covered by other manufacturers.
    26 May 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    Rick, any idea as to why Axion would be having VRLA batteries testing by 3rd parties? Very strange.
    26 May 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    bazooka - nope, no realistic ideas. Sorry. Any possibility they were actually PbCs, but documented as conventional VRLAs?

     

    Remember, a PbC is a VRLA AGM battery, just with different anode.
    27 May 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Rick: EB calculated some weights and suggested they had to be VRLA/AGM.

     

    HardToLove
    27 May 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    I came across a patent application from Axion that just posted:

     

    http://bit.ly/191hwbL

     

    It seems to cover the current sheeting process. I wonder how the decision was made not to keep this as a trade secret and how many times it has been downloaded in China.
    21 May 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Since there seems to be a good deal of customer pressure to get the PbC technology out of the sole source mode, I suspect that the IP team figured the benefits of a solid patent outweighed the benefits of secrecy.

     

    China may not respect patents internally, but they have a hard time selling infringements to first tier non-Chinese buyers.

     

    I also suspect that there's a lot of know how and machine design work that didn't get included in the patent application.
    21 May 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Great comment Ed. I was hopeing that this would be a trade secret and not a patent.

     

    I wonder if they had to patent this if they were going to build out JV plants with mfg on premises. Without a patent the JV partner could take that tech is my guess.
    21 May 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    We discussed this patent last month in APC#225:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 May 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Buiel, I agree with you. This should have been handled in another way like filing it as a trade secret where it does not get displayed to the public. Enhances the opportunities for end arounds.
    21 May 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2323) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully this trend of allowing the "secret sauce" into the wild continues even if there is some trade-offs. The Chinese market doesn't seem like one of high margin and I doubt the Chinese could replicate and sell PbC into the West without huge legal headaches.
    21 May 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    at least that patent discloses some more performance info (mΩ @ 1kHz ), but Axion is still a long way from providing useful design info like Maxwell http://bit.ly/H3XoV0
    21 May 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Renim, Are you familiar with the status of Maxwell's requirement to file a compliance plan for getting their filing up to date by May 20th. Do you happen to know the status? Don't follow them that closely but I'm watching like a good vulture! Thanks.
    21 May 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    FINRA compliance plans are generally pretty pro forma affairs for companies like Maxwell that have identifiable audit and other procedures to complete. The stock price will remain depressed until the Ts are crossed and the Is are dotted, but its only a matter of time and disclosure.
    21 May 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    If it was my choice, I would make all the sheet at Axion and sell either electrodes or carbon sheet to all of the mfgs. Great way to police technology. Great way to guarantee payments. Based on this information, I don't see how it would take long to copy...
    21 May 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    EBuiel: How would the single-point failure issue be handled with this? A cordoned part of the plant "over there" that Axion runs, and is available to the manufacturer if Axion couldn't deliver for whatever reason?

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    HTL, if a company has adequate financial resources, a totally separate facility/company (with independent finances), probably in another country, could be built and operated. The burden of proof is demonstrating that a financial embarrassment would not close both facilities/companies.
    21 May 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Ed, two of my greatest fears even if all went well was:
    1. Someone buying the company for pennies just when things were going to get good. We almost had that happen this recent capital raise.
    2. Someone "reverse engineering or stealing the tech".

     

    I hope this patent is good & holds up.
    21 May 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    2 facilities - clause in agreement to force licensing should supply not meet demand...
    21 May 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (154) | Send Message
     
    Somewhat off topic - Here is a discussion of LNG and CNG use in trucks, and issues with a refueling network. I had no idea that the numbers of new LNG or CNG trucks was so high:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    If the link doesn’t work, look on SA for “Clean Energy Fuels: The Important CNG/LNG Distinction And What It Means For Investors” by Philip Mause. (I don’t get to log in often enough to correct it).

     

    Also note in the comments that trains are trying this, too.
    21 May 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (330) | Send Message
     
    Shanghai ISSON Power Quality Co., Ltd. Deploys Maxwell Technologies' Ultracapacitors To Power Yangshan Deep-Water Port Electric Cranes

     

    http://bit.ly/119eDhj

     

    Shanghai ISSON Power Quality Co., Ltd. installed 126 of Maxwell's 125V Heavy Transportation Modules in a power system that operates 26 ship-to-shore cranes for loading and unloading container ships at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port, a national-grade super harbor connected to the mainland by a 20-mile long bridge. This installation, one of the largest ultracapacitor installations in the world and the biggest in Asia, stabilizes voltage and smooths the fluctuation of the power output, for the electric cranes, allowing for uninterrupted operations.

     

    "Using ultracapacitors for electrical grid network stabilization when the cranes are in operation eliminates voltage supply interruptions so the cranes can consistently lift loads and avoid the costs associated with port operation disruptions," said Jie Huang, a project manager and chief design engineer at ISSON. "The 10-year estimated lifespan of the ultracapacitor-based power system is double our initial expectation, reducing the maintenance cost worries we would have had with batteries."
    21 May 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    this is why some of us has stated that "time is/was of the essence" the competition is moving forward, while we are still lagging.
    21 May 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2124) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    Again with the negative. Of course any technological innovation is subject to technological extinction. But to suggest that the ultracapacitor or other storage medium will eliminate the PbC means you are not taking into account the entire storage arena.

     

    I understand you want things to progress quicker. Don't we all. But geez. Time is of the essence? Like sometime between now and 2017 maybe. Just look at the storage opportunities by 2020.
    21 May 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Too many negative connotations associated with government backing. Just ask GM. Plus the great salesman can turn it into another positive in the public eyes.

     

    Musk says Tesla probably will pay off U.S. loan Wednesday

     

    http://bit.ly/ZaXYzM
    21 May 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: must be why it's down 3.43% ATM?

     

    HardToLove
    21 May 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Just running off memory, didn't Musk raise over 200 million late last year and just now over 700 million? Close to 1 Billion in cap raise in less than 6 months and 452 million is going to pay off a loan? Scary numbers to me. It did make me think of this however. http://binged.it/119lHKT
    21 May 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    HTL, It does stink from a public perspective to have this hanging over your name. That being said, When you're a start-up company things can go wrong. It is not a wise choice to give this cushion up early. Musk's hubris is causing him to make a very poor business decision. Pride cometh before...?

     

    I still claim to have called the top. But since I have no money in there I'll just call it early interested party watchin'. I do wish him well and hope that he can get some of this to filter down where it makes sense in the medium time frame. Without taxpayer support that is. Always good for another lawsuit I guess?
    21 May 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if anyone is a member of VIC. One can sign up for a delay and read some of the comments on the stock. Here are some of my favorites:

     

    "Interesting little nugget -- the DoE loan bore rates of 1.0-1.2%. Now why would anyone want to trade out of that kind of cheap financing in exchange for $450m of convertible notes carrying higher (or at least comparable) rates?

     

    "[O]ur DOE Loan Facility requires Mr. Musk and certain of his affiliates, until one year after we complete the project relating to the Model S Facility, to own at least 65% of the Tesla capital stock held by them as of the date of the DOE Loan Facility, and a failure to comply would be an event of default that could result in an acceleration of all obligations under the DOE Loan Facility documents and the exercise of other remedies by the DOE."

     

    I view the $100m additional investment by Musk as merely a bridge loan -- a bridge loan until he can cash out many multiples of this amount in 6-24 months. His participation today keeps the story stays intact at >$100/sh and provides plausible cover against shareholder suits in the future. Ingenious, really. Good to see the DoE's 3 million warrants at $7-8/sh strikes will cover the Solyndra losses, too."

     

    Or this one:

     

    "You have to give Musk credit. He got his $800MM in cash for the company to fund the entire cash burn through to the Model X and did so in a way that kept the stock very tightly held. His $100MM purchase (which he finances through incremental borrowings from Goldman and/or Morgan Stanley against his ~18mm in existing unpledged shares so no net cash outlay for him on the new share purchase) is large enough to put a floor on the stock at the secondary offering price for the near term.

     

    Musk is buying ~500k shares in the public offering, so only 2.6mm shares being sold to the public.

     

    The $518MM in converts likely need to short 2mm shares or so, so the total increase in new borrowable shares is only going to be like 500k to 1mm (unless Musk is lending out his shares.)

     

    With no need to raise equity over the next 2 years, the existing backlog of Asian and European reservations to sell through for the remainder of the year (which makes the 21k total unit sales guidance number seem low -- they're already selling 2200/month in the US alone (at least March/April) which if that trend continues they're going to sell 24-25k units this year) Musk has bought himself sufficient time (and market cap increase) to get 1 if not 2 of the vesting requirements for his mega option package."
    21 May 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Could Mr Mush purchase his shares on margin?

     

    Of course by paying off the loan to Uncle Sam it would make the bankruptcy process much cleaner...... should that ever happen.
    21 May 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Nice Mr. Holty.

     

    He can almost buy himself a great payoff unless he slips on a banana peel.
    21 May 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    The key to shorting TSLA is knowing where we are in the hype cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see one more squeeze North on the stock price, before book value, multiples, etc come back to reality.
    21 May 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    He is effectively purchasing them on margin. He has borrowed $275M from Goldman with his stock options as collateral including the recent $100M of which we got $125M thereby pulling $25M out. The other intersting thing is that according to that thread the guys who would have bought the converible bonds would effectively want to short their exposure to guarantee their returns at this point. With a limited float and the fact that Musk himself is buying $100M in stock means there really isn't much float for shorts to get so he squeezed the guys who bought the convert.
    21 May 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Cramer: What I am hearing on TSLA

     

    There is one important note in this...and that is "who" is saying buy one. They are the buyers of tomorrow, their parents today. I posted a year or two ago that GM ran a survey on college campuses, this is exactly what they found that will be the future of auto.
    http://bit.ly/13IEHVJ
    21 May 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    At the end of the day Idealistic college kids grow up, get married, raise kids and if they are able to will follow their idealistic goals 100%. Most won't and the assumption that these cars will be cheap enough for the masses is pure hopium at this time.

     

    Dollars drive decisions not the other way around.
    http://bit.ly/14u7ehe
    21 May 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    For the foreseeable future I'd have to settle for a Prius rather than a Tesla. Personally I think Tesla may want to sell hybrids as well to break into a mass market. This is down to micro hybrids (using PbC of course). Unless things have changed, Lithium is still too expensive for a mass market car.
    21 May 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    MrHolty, Did you read to the part where the "parents" who have already purchased a car state "wished we had bought a Tesla" now?

     

    Auto makers already know these results and are slowly moving that direction. It may not be for me and you, but the younger ones will demand it.
    21 May 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    LT- Yep. Saw the comment. Assumed that was a looking statement about buying TSLA the stock, not the car. I also wish I bought Microsoft in early 80s, Southwest Air in 1989 and countless others. I'd be Elton Musk rich.

     

    Hell, I'd like a TSLA too but for the vast majority of us (the middleclass) a highend car is not in our price range at any time. Its the difference want and can. I want Audi R8, I can afford an A4 but I drive a VW.
    21 May 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7609) | Send Message
     
    Wait for a Gen3 Tesla, or just pick up a used Model S in a year or two.
    21 May 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    The day Cramer recommends AXPW is the day I sell.

     

    D
    21 May 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    The day Cramer recommends *anything* is usually a good day to sell.
    22 May 2013, 04:46 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    No wonder why his hedge fund went bust in the past. The guy is clueless...
    22 May 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    :-) I understand Ford did a lot of survey work, etc. in developing the Edsel.
    22 May 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Someone at ATDF playing games: 14:01 bids $0.2591x10K. Then walks it up, in 10K steps to 86,666 through 14:13. Then starts walking it down, 10K at a time again, to 10K at 14:14.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT down to 10K at 14;14.
    21 May 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they want to see if someone will sell them a large block?
    21 May 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, We seem to have found a home in here around .26 USD. A little up, a little down. Tight spreads as well.

     

    Let me throw my chicken bones for direction!
    21 May 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Just one more post from someone who's experience mirrors Dr. Buiel's experience driving the Bimmer. This SS review is pretty close to the 10 or so others I've reviewed.

     

    2013 BMW X3 xDrive28i Review

     

    "Furthermore there’s the absolutely infuriating engine start/stop feature. Its abrupt nature is unbecoming of the luxury price-tag and appeal, and every passenger in the car always asked what was wrong when the engine shuddered off, and then back on at stoplights, or in stop-and-go traffic. While the function is defeatable, it can’t be turned off by default and a short test without the engine turning on and off changed the fuel economy by about 1 mile per gallon. The start-stop is annoying and doesn’t seem worthwhile."

     

    http://bit.ly/119KUon
    21 May 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    05/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 24999, Vol 185758, AvTrSz: 2902
    Min. Pr: 0.2531, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2594
    # Buys, Shares: 38 108966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2599
    # Sells, Shares: 20 65050, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2586
    # Unkn, Shares: 6 11742, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2592
    Buy:Sell 1.68:1 (58.7% “buys”), DlyShts 86259 (46.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 132.60%

     

    VWAP continues to hold up well. I listed a set yesterday, so I won't do it here gain. Interesting, to me, is an apparent correlation between a reducing average trade size as daily short sales remain elevated. I don't have clue about cause and effect, or which is which here, but maybe some mulling it over will yield something useful going forward. Later on that.

     

    The changes in bids I spotted today had 12 increases and 5 decreases (some were “uncovered”). The asks had 6 increases (some “uncovered”) and 11 decreases. Having the buy percentage where it is with this sort of activity suggests, to me, that buyers are seeing a good risk/reward scenario here. If sellers recognized the same thing ...

     

    The average trade size is again very low and the daily short sales quite high, relative to levels over the last several months. The trend is remarkable and most easily discerned on the instablog chart. Part of the rise seen is due to using percentages. While trade volume declines but daily short sales volume remains relatively elevated, the percentage of short sales rises. This would seem to confirm a thought I expressed earlier, that the new cadre of MMs showing up were responsible for increased daily short sales, because before their appearance the percentage of daily short sales was relatively stable for quite a few months.

     

    Knowing, generally, how these things work, it may also suggest my thoughts that some MMs were going short-term long, for trading advantage and profit, or otherwise had control of shares backing sell orders (owned by the broker holding the shares?) may have been correct. We'll never know, I'm sure. But we can be sure that one or more of the MMs newly seen do not have control of the shares being sold, either through a long position or ownership by the holding broker. Because I've been tracking some of these for a while in my peeks at the bid and ask changes, we may be able to predict some changes in daily short sales trend in the future as these MMs become (in)active in our market.

     

    Possibly related is the change in the buy:sell ratio, which has been trending strongly up recently. This is also best seen on the charts, especially the buy percentage averages chart.

     

    Five of the six periods of my original experimental inflection point calculations had positive one-day changes. The five-day change of these was evenly split with three improving (25, 50 and 200-day) and three weakening a bit (5, 10, and 100-day) while the average change/day for those were also split. This indecision is reflected in the squiggles on the chart.

     

    My newer version has four of the six periods showing improvement in the one-day change and five of the six improving over a five-day period. The average daily change of the periods over five days showed improvement in five of the periods. Generally, my newer version is more bullish than the original version. I had mentioned a couple days back that it was in a state in which it could be easily induced to issue a signal of a move up. It remains so today. It is not signaling yet.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Commissioning of new ZBB site in conjunction with a WY utility co-op.

     

    http://bit.ly/18hTrMt
    22 May 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Does ZBB make it's own inverters or does it outsource them ?
    22 May 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    It makes its own iirc 25kw and 125kw ... they stopped spending money on the development of the 60kw.

     

    The inverters are bundled into the EnerSection which is a one point of coupling for all renewable energy sources at the property. The EnerSection reduces costs of implementation b/c it is able to use the same set of inverters for all the renewable resources rather than needing an inverter for each resource, i.e. solar, wind, etc ...
    22 May 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    thx
    22 May 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Ya beat me to it Stef. Apart from announcement of another operating ZBB installation, I noticed that the PR referenced inclusion of four lead acid batteries sets. Calls to mind DR's multiple calls for use of PbCs with ZBB's flow battery.
    22 May 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... ZBB's battery is a remarkable device that can go to 100% discharge and sit there for years if necessary or go to 100% and operate at 100 to 80 or 80 to 30 and other ranges. What it doesn't do is respond quickly to demand or recharge quickly with opportunity. I just wants to charge & discharge at its own pace. The PbC can match the ZBB performance characteristics & cycle life better than any comparably priced battery with speed on the (grid visible) front end. Thus the PbC, in my opinion, would be a great gatekeeper, a system life extending flow through device, for many storage systems. I see this system doesn't incorporate the ZBB battery, just the controller, and that is a shame.

     

    I could be totally wrong thinking such an arrangement would extend the life of the base system but I'd love someone to test a combined device solution.

     

    Has Axion ever approached ZBB?
    22 May 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Based on my rudimentary understanding of the ZBB flow battery as high volume energy storage with low power performance and my understanding of superior PbC power profile and DCA, your perspective on coupling the ZBB with PbC strikes me as imminently reasonable, DR. Add in PbC's KIAS attributes and ISTM use of the PbC with ZBB's flow battery would be technically superior to any ZBB-AGM or ZBB-FLAB combo.
    22 May 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... This ZBB PR piece only mentions using LAB for storage on PV & wind. As has been pointed out LABs don't really like spikes in the charge circuit. Both generation sources can be very spikey with wind going to extremes on the high side. The EnerSection can filter out what the batteries can't handle but by wasting energy and sending it to ground. The PbC doesn't care so much thus lowering the cost of the controller while recovering more peak generation. Still, it is possible that on high current moments some energy will be shunted to ground anyway.
    22 May 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    FWIW ePower told me yesterday that the PbC string in its truck was coping with instantaneous regenerative braking charges of 840 volts and 150 amps without batting an eye, so I'm not sure how much would get shunted to ground even under extreme conditions.
    22 May 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Sizzlin' news!

     

    Thanks, JP.
    22 May 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    JP: Only one test left to run then - a direct lightening strike! =>8-O After all, 126K watts already!

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Free energy, have the CB antennas double as lightning rods. :-)
    22 May 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed: Yeah, but they would be good for only one strike and then need a dose of Cialis.

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Translating JP's numbers, that is 840 x 150 = 126 kW, which is 169 hp of braking. 126 kW / 54 batts /12 volts = 194 amps charge acceptance per battery ("instantaneous"). Sound about right and consistent.

     

    To put 169 hp of braking in perspective, that means the truck can decelerate (and regenerate) roughly as it would have accelerated with 169 hp. Will be a lot quieter than a Jake Brake.

     

    As expected, still needs some good friction brakes for emergency stops.
    22 May 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Here is a project with the ZBB EnerStore, EnerSystem and lead acid batteries in a hybrid format.

     

    http://bit.ly/10lpCZu
    22 May 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... Thanks for finding that. It could be similar to what I have in mind but the important part to me is it's the first mixed device project I can remember seeing.
    22 May 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    So sounds like they (ePower) are using all the batteries in a single 1S series string...

     

    I would imagine they're ecstatic with that... I mean ISTM no way could the previous AGM string absorb that kind of power... which means now, much less energy wasted... which has got to help the economy numbers even further. So not only do they get a battery that doesn't melt and fail, they get one that can really leverage the regenerative braking opportunities and make the overall system design (gen-dominated series hybrid) really sing like it was meant to...

     

    Their patent had a lot of discussion about the various means they would employ to handle all that excess power that the previous battery just couldn't absorb: hydrogen generation which would then be injected into the fuelstream, increased electrical auxiliaries, resistor banks , etc etc... Now with the PbC, it would seem that they could dispense with a good deal of that, thus further saving cost and complexity.

     

    Also, how are they liking the string self-equalization property?
    22 May 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Jay said they've spent the last four weeks trying to damage the batteries with no success. The only problem they've had was a single terminal that vibrated loose because of the battery box design and cabling layout.
    22 May 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    That's the level of problem we can live with!
    22 May 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Here's are some ePower (to some extent NSC) questions I've wondered about and don't think it has been addressed. If it has, I apologize and could someone point me to just where.

     

    Here's the deal. A fleet operator lays up an ePowered truck for 4 to 6 weeks or longer.

     

    1) What if anything happens to the battery pack (other than being at a very low % capacity)? I guess I'm really asking how long can the PbC sit totally discharged without harm?

     

    2) Does a PbC pack require any maintenance routine and/or infrastructure to prevent harm during extended down time?

     

    3) Is there any special requirements for re-entry into service or can one just start the motor & go?
    22 May 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    That's pretty encouraging. They may be a little company, still I continue to hope the day will come soon when ePower can stand up and show/tell the world: "These batteries are amazing!"
    22 May 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    HTL ... lets put a TFH on that to increase the odds.
    22 May 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I dont think ePower has let the truck sit long enough to really run the batteries down through self-discharge. According to Jay when he starts the truck in the morning all the engine power is being dumped into the batteries until the truck is warmed up and ready to roll and by that time they're at an optimal SOC.

     

    It's probably a better question for Ed, but I'd imagine you'd want to keep the truck on a trickle charge if it was going to sit idle for several weeks.
    22 May 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for those comps, Rick. 126kW of energy recovered to supplement the hp generated by the genset for baseload motive power.
    22 May 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... The fact ePower can't blow it up or melt it down just got me wondering about the opposite, neglect, side of the abuse scale.
    22 May 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    481086> Jay Bowman is telling anybody who'll listen that the PbC is amazing and his truck couldn't work without them.
    22 May 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    DRich, the information I have says a PbC can sit for 6 months at 0% without a problem.

     

    Regarding #3, I suspect if the battery bank is totally discharged, you might have to "idle" for a while to get some charge. Remember the voltage will be very low, and the very bottom of SOC does not have the high charge acceptance of the middle 60%. Unless there was a short or misfunction, I doubt the batteries would get to zero in only a month or three.

     

    This is not a battery problem - I just doubt the electronics and drive train will work with the voltage at only 30% of normal.

     

    "Idle" in quotes because it is constant speed generator.
    22 May 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    Drich - so long as the charging circuit can't go over 13.5 V per battery, it is just about impossible to "blow up" a lead based battery.
    22 May 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    And, Sir John, do you (and/or Ed) believe this PbC characteristic (we won't call it self-discharge) has any impact in/on it's adoption to micro-hybrids and the various and sundary other potential applications for PbC??
    22 May 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I'll defer to Ed on the self discharge issue, but I know that problem avoidance is one of the biggest reasons for the dual battery solution that Axion is working on.
    22 May 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    "Jay Bowman is telling anybody who'll listen that the PbC is amazing and his truck couldn't work without them."

     

    Awesome! Give that man a megaphone!!! ;)
    22 May 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    >DRich ... Having a truck sit idle for extended periods of time is considered a loss of revenue (missed opportunity) in the business so it would be extremely rare. Also, shore power is growing in the industry in the truck stops and terminal parking locations. Lastly, in the colder climates access to a plug has been available for years for the use of block heaters...
    22 May 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2165) | Send Message
     
    njb - For any battery application, one needs to match the requirements with capabilities of the battery. If you need multi-month electric storage, bio-carbon is the wrong choice; lead gel or ZBB's Zn-Br would be a better choice. If you are going to rapidly cycle the battery deeply multiple times per day, PbC is a very strong contender.

     

    Multi-month and multiple daily cycles are pretty much mutually exclusive requirements.
    22 May 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... I agree that an idle truck is lost revenue. Then again, I turn everyday in front of terminal operator's yard where tractors (guess 50 to 75 on any given day) are parked and rotated in & out. Most don't stay put very long but there is a row of, I'd say, 20 that aren't very old (judging by body style) and haven't moved in at least 6 months. Right behind the sign that reads "Drivers Needed". Things that make me wonder.
    22 May 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Rick - and somewhere 'tween" lies many of the PbC applications we tout, desire, bet on, discuss, etc., etc......., wait for!
    22 May 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    >DRich ... Sure. More assets than freight, low rates and drivers tired of competing with foreign drivers would be my guess...
    22 May 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Here's the original ZBB announcement on the project ... back on 11/15/2011!

     

    http://bit.ly/10mYDwJ

     

    "The installation is targeted for completion in early 2012"

     

    Part of the delay, I suspect, was waiting on UL certification, but who knows what other factors played a role.

     

    "Facility Gateway selected the ZBB solution for this micro-grid system because of its modular and scalable architecture," said Robert Walker, Senior Application Engineer at Facility Gateway Corporation. "Our utility customer was looking for an easy-to-deploy platform to demonstrate the benefits of load management and peak shaving while having the flexibility to support the integration of nearly any combination of on-site renewable power generating sources and have the ability to replace lead acid batteries at the end of their service life."

     

    And how long will that life be? And with what might they be replaced?
    23 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    who supplies lead-acid battery banks for such an installation?
    23 May 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rick, I thought emergency braking used rubber-on-asphalt energy eaters ;-)
    23 May 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    Since finding good trades in the Energy Storage Section are really rare these days, with JCI & ENS being the only rational choices, is anybody here playing Maxwell (MXWL) for a bounce back to the $8.00 to $10.00 range during the next month or so?
    22 May 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I am not. I think its too early.
    23 May 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The Devil Made Me Do It!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 May 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Oh John! I'm beginning to think you made the devil do it! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 May 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    It's another great article. It made me feel nostalgic for the days when you were writing articles weekly about the venerable AONE, HEV, VLNC, etc. too bad they're gone, not as much fun stuff to write about these days.
    22 May 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what I'm going to do with myself when Tesla bites the big one.
    22 May 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    And you'll weather the onslaught with your characteristic aplomb. Their battle cry is just not as rousing as King Harry's:

     

    Follow your spirit, and upon this charge
    Cry 'God for Tesla, California, and Saint Elon!'
    22 May 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    JP - yup, go hunting for something else to do, something really worthwhile.
    22 May 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    JP...151 comments under 24 hours...this should be interesting!
    22 May 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The more fun stat is 5,200 page views in under six hours.
    22 May 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • GalenBancroft
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Axion International Holdings Inc. announced it received a purchase order from new customer Edmonton Light Rail Transit for ECOTRAX™ ties, which will be used for crossing applications. Edmonton Light Rail Transit is Axion's third customer in Canada.

     

    http://goo.gl/XnVYU
    22 May 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    They're AXIH--different company from Axion Power International, Inc. (AXPW), which is this blog.
    22 May 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Galen
    Thanks for trying.
    My first post was an error as well.
    22 May 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Delightful find Galen. Thanks.

     

    It puts the Axion name on the markee, just not the PbC. Axion International Holdings, Inc. is not Axion Power International. ' Holdings makes composite railroad ties.
    22 May 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Interesting S/S brochure from JC -

     

    http://on.jci.com/10UA0UK
    22 May 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan! I always stop mid-point with your first name because my middle name is Stephan. I suffer from muscle motor memory. Or a tic! :)

     

    I think if consumers were given the facts in a one page document they would be very upset based on the life cycle of far too many systems they are being sold for SS. I also think BMW sees (&%)it coming and that's why GM is not offering it in the US based on the architecture of the low end European systems (GM, given their Opel division, is not without sin.). I'm also seeing the Japanese avoiding using AMG for this function as well. The last point speaks reams to me. I've always held the Japanese in high regard, not because they don't make mistakes, but because they have very long term vision compared to far too many corporate nurturing cultures in recent history.

     

    JCI is feeding the ignorant.

     

    "WHAT CONSUMERS THINK
    Consumers want fuel efficiency but don’t want it
    to compromise vehicle performance, according
    to research commissioned by Johnson Controls.
    Other findings:
    In Europe, the leading global market for Start-Stop
    vehicles, satisfaction is high.

    91 percent of Start-Stop vehicle owners will likely
    purchase such a vehicle again.

    78 percent purchased a Start-Stop vehicle for
    fuel savings.
    In the U.S., consumers are looking for fuel-saving
    technologies.

    97 percent say they’re ready for Start-Stop technology.

    51 percent would choose a Start-Stop vehicle for its
    fuel cost savings.

    More than 30 percent would pay over $500 for a
    Start-Stop functionality
    22 May 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco

     

    My take on the reason the Japanese avoid AGM is due to the temperature requirements of AGM and the Japanese propensity to package their engine bay in a Tetris like manner. In particular, the Japanese like to minimise battery cabling, which results in the battery being close to the engine. Other's ie USA, Korea don't have such a packaging focus.

     

    As far as robustness of operation goes, the Japanese SBA S 0101:2006 standard has a more sensible variable rate of recharge, so its OK to get 30,000 cycles with a normal sized enhanced flooded. Sure they leave some efficiency on the table, but the product maintains consistent performance.
    22 May 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Renim. Good points.
    23 May 2013, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    No worries, ii - Do you pronounce your middle name Steven or Stefan?
    23 May 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Steven. My fathers side is British and I think this would be more common? But I have no expertise in such matters. During my years at Valeo my French contacts and one German contact, that shared our name all utilized the spelling of your given name.

     

    20+ generations from now I'm not sure anyone will have such a discussion! Modern travel and all. :)
    23 May 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    ii - indeed, I believe you are correct. Interestingly, Stefan is my middle name, which I have always been called. My mother wanted to name me Ludwig after my German grandfather, but she didn't want to do that in America -- so she made my first name Luis thinking it was the American version. However, I was born in Tucson, AZ and everybody spelled Louis as Luis ... hence, everyone has always thought I was of Hispanic decent.
    23 May 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    SM,
    Sounds like a normal "all American guy" to me.
    24 May 2013, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    New S/S brochure from Bosch:

     

    http://bit.ly/11djPGZ
    22 May 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... These two brochures make it seems they've got all the problems licked. Both are "perfect" solutions to the new energy demanding system. Maybe these dynamic AGM batteries can tide us over until we can all afford a used Tesla and drive on free energy the rest of our days.
    22 May 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    We are talking to Bosch no doubt?
    23 May 2013, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    And JCI?
    23 May 2013, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power To Present At The Second Annual Marcum LLP MicroCap Conference

     

    http://bit.ly/14UH1bn

     

    http://on.mktw.net/ZfH0Ah
    23 May 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    Axion needs more exposure!
    23 May 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The sponsors list of the Marcum conference is truly impressive. It's basically a who's who in the micro cap company space.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZfNcIy
    23 May 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, jveal. That's very encouraging. Finally, get the word out. BMW. NS. Trucking. PC (maybe). PbC manufacturing figured out and ready to go. Have the cash they need for awhile. Did I mention BMW?

     

    At a minimum, will help support the stk if the new investors start selling a lot of shares this summer.
    23 May 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I've seen microcaps run up into these kinds of conferences before. Will be interesting to see how AXPW behaves.
    23 May 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Lloyd Hanlin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    jveal

     

    "Axion Power to present at the Second Annual Marcum LLP MicroCap Conference."

     

    This might be what starts the share price higher.
    23 May 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    When is a news archive not a news archive?

     

    When it gets edited ...

     

    Rosewater, we're talking about you!

     

    http://bit.ly/ZfQCLu

     

    You probably thought we weren't really watching didn't you?

     

    But computers giveth, and computers taketh away :-)
    23 May 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Are we reading this abandonment of the PbC for the hub as a decision made by Axion--not Rosewater?
    23 May 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Ouch, I guess that relationship is on the rocks. Unfortunately, it only highlights the importance of asking management (of any company) tough questions about prior relationships and initiatives b/c they normally begin with much fanfare and then die silently.
    23 May 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The RoseWater relationship is obviously weaker than it once was, but from my perspective the weakening is simply proof that super salesmen aren't enough for an extremely technical launch of a non-commodity product in a very price sensitive market. Joe Pic has some of the best sales credentials around and found out how difficult and time consuming the process is. It certainly supports the idea that the popular panacea solution of ramping the marketing effort is easier said than done.
    23 May 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    John, I would have thought they had at least a few sales in the bag coming into the market. I guess I was wrong. But then, as I said before, I don't have a clue about the luxury market which is where this product was clearly pointed.

     

    When looking at it from a mass market standpoint it was clearly too high a price point IMO. But it wasn't designed to be used for that purpose.

     

    Ehh, I'm a little disappointed. What else is new on the sales today front? 1957 classic battery anyone! ;)
    23 May 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    The stationary market is dreadfully difficult because nobody knows what they need, nobody understands the value proposition, nobody wants to pay a fair price and everybody and his brother-in-law is flogging a competitive system.

     

    Things will improve as time passes but for now its just a very tough market. My hierarchy of application desirability remains rail, trucking, automotive and then stationary.
    23 May 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Am I missing something here, it seems to me that Axion has not been able to provide the Hub for sale! Is the issue Rosewater cannot sell the Hub or Axion cannot mass produce the Hub?

     

    Didn't TG state that the Hub would not be available until late in the year due to the manufacturing company not being able to get the electronics completed or such?
    23 May 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Is the Rosewater relationship "weaker" or does it exist at all now?

     

    I don't see AXPW on their site anywhere.
    23 May 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    Frankly i don't know and I don't particularly care because I see stationary as a great market that won't mature in time to make my Axion investment successful. Long-term it's a wonderful opportunity. Short-term, meh.
    23 May 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    My biggest concern with ZBB is that the stationary market will take too long to mature to make ZBB a worthwhile investment.
    23 May 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Axion has been

     

    1) expecting significant PC sales for some time now, and
    2) talking about adding sales staff for PC RFPs,

     

    so THEY clearly think stationary is both important and right-now. What the company is focusing on and spending money on matters a great deal to the stk.

     

    As far as the HUB...RB357, you are correct. Lots of spec here. May I suggest that some investigating can go a long way...
    23 May 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29446) | Send Message
     
    I have no doubt that there will be PowerCube sales and those sales may be substantial. It will all be good news for Axionistas.

     

    When I talk about an application class being strong enough to make my Axion investment successful I'm talking about consistent and sustained sales of PbC products into an established market niche rather than one-off sales into a developing niche.

     

    All small companies have to go through the feast and famine cycle while they grow big enough to eat every day. My focus is the time when folks start saying "you're looking a bit pudgy."
    23 May 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: IIRC, someone said there's was an issue with the inverters. Didn't TG say they had tried a different one and now wanted to go back to their original supplier, Princeton Power?

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I think you are right in that concern. I'm betting that we're not too early. . . Today looks like a great day to buy ZBB.
    23 May 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    I think that Axion's approach of diversifying its sales has been, and still is, a very good approach. Transportation's time to significant revenue still looks to be measured in years from now:

     

    1) auto: 1-3 years?
    2) rail: 1-2 years?
    3) truck: 2-3 years?

     

    PC sales can help fill the gap until those steadier streams arrive. Think of it as a defensive move. Should help the stk from falling further, so the multibagger is not from, say 10 cents to $1 but 25 cents to $2.50. THIS is the crux of the investment thesis, to me. First, stop the bleeding, especially given the terms of the recent issuance, which can cause a downward spiral.

     

    The other way the bleeding may stop is significant pre-revenue announcements, such as a manufacturing agreement for supplying BMW. IOW, a contract that says future revenues are indeed coming. Really hard to say what the stk mkt will think that is worth, though. If someone has investigated that guessstimate, that might be helpful to see.

     

    Yet another obvious way to stop the bleeding is for Axion to get out there and hawk its story, so some deep-pocketed investors invest now, in advance of announced breakthroughs. Hopefully we see some of that from the conference next week. Axion's at a turning point--what a great time to invest if you believe they can execute and you can wait 2-3 years for the payoff.
    23 May 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I think these investor conferences are the right step to take, if we want to see AXPW reach higher levels on design win news (ie future sales). We need long term and high volume holders.

     

    IMO, a major win like BMW should be worth $1+ instantly, and move north to $3 as the orders pick up. Being a major auto supplier in the future should put Axion at the same level as the old Exide (~300m cap).
    23 May 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, it's actually a very open question as to what a BMW manufacturing agreement will do to the stk price. I used to think a lot, but I'm not so sure anymore. The news is already out there, although arguably largely unnoticed by other investors until next Thursday, anyway, that BMW is trying to help Axion with that manufacturing agreement. Yet absolutely no movement in the stk, although the news may have kept it from falling further. Which is important.

     

    We've seen significant news do almost nothing to other battery sector stks, other than a temp pop that is faded. Once again, if someone has done some decent investigation into the issue, that would be helpful.
    23 May 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    "until next thursday"? What's happening NEXT thursday ?
    23 May 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    "what a great time to invest if you believe they can execute and you can wait 2-3 years for the payoff."

     

    :-) 2 - 3 weeks?
    23 May 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I think we have a couple reasons the stock price remains at this level (but notably not falling) despite the BMW news:
    1) Most paying attention are overbought Axionistas.
    2) While progress is encouraging, most here are also so used to disappointment they will not assign a win until the actual deal is announced.

     

    I don't know if comparing other battery stocks is fair, because of our microcap status, years of supply imbalance, and a shareholder base who very well informed.

     

    I'm biased of course, but we can find many microcap companies who announce a deal, partnership, or financing, and have their stock rally in multiples.
    23 May 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    LT: I suspect attendance was suggested by their investment bank. AFAIK they've not gone to a non-technical forum before this.

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    "they will not assign a win until the actual deal is announced."

     

    Very true. I definitely will not assign a win until it is announced.
    23 May 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    I tend to think that announcement of some significant battery sales will be needed to move share price above $1.

     

    -- Sight of the NS999 "in the wild" and a PR announcing order of PbCs for an OTR might do it.

     

    -- Orders for a couple of 0.5MW PCs or a 1 MW PC might do it.

     

    -- Announcement of initial shipments for an ePower three-four hybrid truck per month production schedule might do it.

     

    PC orders are the most likely IMO.
    23 May 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483)