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  • Axion Power Concentrator 244: June 14: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 339 comments
    Jun 14, 2013 5:16 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits - long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization - create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

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    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 06/17/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 6/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (339)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Here!
    14 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Where's the hare?

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jun 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (275) | Send Message
     
    and there
    14 Jun 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    and everywhere
    14 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    and everywhere
    14 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    Mark of the Mouse!!

     

    Isn't that some old tv show/cartoon or something?
    14 Jun 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    iind ... Thanks for that url to the article about Corvus batteries in a hybrid locomotive (http://bit.ly/11erYtJ)

     

    I had searched for the article but was finding nothing ... probably because I was searching for electric locomotives or battery electric locomotives. The hybrid locomotive developed by Alternative Motive Power Systems (AMPS) uses both a diesel genset and/or a battery pack to power the locomotive. It is also interesting to note that the AMPS loco uses the same number of Corvus (16) batteries mentioned in the DOT grant recently awarded to NSC.

     

    NSC's NS999 is all electric offering 100% reduction in diesel fuel use while the AMPS switcher loco targets 65% reduction in diesel consumption. Would definitely be interesting to learn pricing on the PbC and Corvus batteries.
    14 Jun 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    +2000 at 0.2 - partial fill, but I really like having some shares in green
    14 Jun 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    knock on wood. ouch.
    14 Jun 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    I have a question for the RR experts: If the NS-999 works out, can't they (why can't they) just use the NS-999 switcher in series with a "standard" loco to achieve the desired goal for OTR applications?
    14 Jun 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, Not a RR expert but I can envision differences between the NS999 and what is proposed for the OTR application. First the NS999 is sized in storage and HP for it's specific task in a RR yard, This has probably been calculated based on how certain yards function using things like duty cycle, distance traveled, work completed, charge opportunities maintenance etc. The OTR application needs to be sized differently because it's task is far different. In fact it has already been announced that the OTR application will be sized with about twice the storage as the NS999 application.

     

    Second, is that the NS999 has drive motors with the ability to provide traction and dynamic braking. This requires all the power electronics, wiring and BMS differences for these functions. As far as I know the OTR application is storage only and does not have the ability to add or subtract kinetic energy to the train.

     

    Yet another difference is all the wiring and how the different applications charge, discharge and communicate with the different devices they have to interface with to perform their distinct tasks. I can envision them being completely different and very application specific.

     

    I'm sure there are other differences but as you can see their functions are very unique once you get away from the base batteries. They could probably, with great effort, be designed to multitask but the cost is probably prohibitive and since their routines are pretty much required all year round they can afford to be specific to their function.

     

    BTW, These differences create significant engineering challenges as well and that's why we see distinct design efforts between the two programs. I think they are using the information they have gathered from their route track measurements so the locomotive knows when it can best add or subtract energy from the OTR unit to optimize travel arrival times and energy consumption. They can develop software to understand every grade change with the stops and arrival times taking into account things like train weigh. length, weather conditions, other trains in their route, etc. to optimize their task. I'm sure I'm minimizing the effort but I can imagine it's fun stuff to work on.
    14 Jun 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, This June 11th NSC presentation by their CFO touches on their efforts in optimizing train speed/arrival time. Looks like they coined the term "Gold Run" for achieving something closer to perfect train schedules while optimizing fuel consumption. Having an energy storage device on board to add or subtract train velocity without using friction brakes makes this a far more achievable task because each train consist is unique plus you have other variables as well.

     

    Slide 10

     

    http://bit.ly/145KdjK
    14 Jun 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all that input, honestly. In my ignorance, I'd always figured the OTR unit would also have traction motors. I did not think about how much simpler the app might be. Makes me curious why they didn't start there, though. IIRC, the NS patent does describe a battery storage "tender".

     

    I was just hoping to avoid another multi-year development and engineering project. SO maybe once the switcher proves out, most of the questions for the OTR will have been answered and we won't have to wait quite so long for that to roll out?
    14 Jun 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    Also, the conventional switcher unit's problem is large amounts of idle time. That means fuel wasted and air pollution.
    15 Jun 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    If the OTR is storage only then is the PbC really the best battery?

     

    It seems to me that the application you describe, ii, requires more of an energy battery and less a power battery.

     

    I had assumed the OTR would receive kinetic energy in braking and would supply traction in uphill grades somewhat similar to the role of the battery in the ePower application. Pardon my ignorance.

     

    D
    15 Jun 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    Use Chrome browser for the Concentrator!

     

    I'm bringing this advice forward one more time.

     

    I use Chrome and IE browsers for different sets of sites, favorites lists, etc., mostly for historical reasons. So I had never opened the Concentrator in Chrome. Suffered unnecessarily through many 30-second refreshes and slow-running script alerts.

     

    This one is a no-brainer. Weird, but true.

     

    Thanks to Bangwhiz and others!
    15 Jun 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    The OTR unit will still receive from and contribute to traction motors, just the traction motors will be elsewhere.
    15 Jun 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Attached is the NS patent.
    http://bit.ly/YgX2ZE
    15 Jun 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie, I consider the application to be much like the ePower application in that it has to be utilized in the correct terrain (rolling hills) where the batteries are cycled often. Yes higher energy storage capacity is better but key is DCA and that's where the AGM really falls flat on it's face. So it's a balancing act of having good DCA while getting enough energy storage on the platform (car selected) for the money based on the calculations to maintain speed.

     

    As for adding any form of traction or dynamic braking, They threw some mention of it into the patent but as long as the other loco's in the consist have the capacity just use them. Why add more?
    15 Jun 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    A quick review of the patent shows that the OTR locomotive will have operational traction motors that are used for acceleration and hill climbing, and recover energy during braking and on downhill grades.

     

    Where a hybrid carries both the ICE and electrical components in a single chassis, the NS conception separates the components into different chassis that will be combined in a multiple locomotive consist that functions as a hybrid.

     

    The big advantage is that one could theoretically change the ratio of ICE to battery electric depending on the requirements of a particular route.
    15 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Quite correct about the slug having its own independent motors, shown in the patent images, for operational assist. Multiple configurations so "iidelco" is not wrong either. Let's not forget the other "All Electric" solution for locomotives that UP is investigating. It is a battery swap housed in a cargo container, tendered to the consist and providing no operational advantage of its own ... just a booster.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/16rusWg

     

    Even as I don't think this is going much of anywhere (railroads hate dummy tenders) it is out there. It is also purely an additional energy reserve one that favors things like the Li-on Corvis Dow Kokam. That said, with a little added to capture dynamic brake energy it is a configuration that the Axion PbC would work well in.
    15 Jun 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    "According to one embodiment, the locomotive 1004 may include no traction motor of its own."

     

    FIG. 10a shows a diesel-electric locomotive 1002 coupled with an all-electric or battery-toting locomotive 1004, which together provide the driving power for a train. The locomotive 1002 may have a same or similar design as a traditional diesel-electric locomotive having one or more diesel engines which drive an electric generator that in turn powers traction motors. The locomotive 1004 carries no internal combustion engine but may carry a battery assembly and a battery management system. According to some embodiments of the present invention, the battery assembly may comprise rechargeable batteries that can be recharged through regenerative braking and/or directly by the diesel engine(s) aboard the locomotive 1002. According to one embodiment, the locomotive 1004 may include no traction motor of its own. Thus, the locomotive 1004 will contribute little to and consume little from its on-board battery assembly. Instead, the battery assembly will store energy recovered from traction motors of the locomotive 1002 (and/or be recharged by the diesel engine(s) thereon), and the battery power will be supplied to the traction motors of the locomotive 1002 upon demand. According to another embodiment, the locomotive 1004 may include its own traction motors which may contribute to regenerative braking and may also consume power from the battery assembly. In that case, the battery power may or may not be shared with the diesel-electric locomotive 1002. In either case, a DC bus may couple the locomotive 1002 with the locomotive 1004.

     

    Just about every imaginable configuration is part of some claim, but this section sums it up.

     

    Here's my favorite as an Axionista: According to some embodiments of the present invention, it may be advantageous to operate two, three or even more battery-powered locomotives cooperatively in this or similar configuration, for example, to collectively increase horsepower output, operating range/duration, and/or braking force. Each individual locomotive and/or their motors may be switch on or off upon demand. (from the Fig 9 description)
    15 Jun 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    ii, re' "Why add more?"

     

    The patent provides the answer: "Preferably, the locomotive 908 may be equipped with traction motors subject to the power control of the main locomotive 906, so as to provide additional driving and/or braking force and potentially to increase energy recovery from regenerative braking." (from the Fig 9 section)
    15 Jun 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    :-) I am not an engineer so I will exhibit ignorance in posing the question, Doesn't weight matter with a locomotive?

     

    Good traction is needed to pull 00s of loaded freight cars weighing 000s of tons. Take a diesel engine and fuel out of a locomotive and I would think weight drops a lot. Addition of regenerative braking systems might replace a small bit of that weight. PbC batteries would replace a lot more (and perhaps even exceed) of the lost weight, much more so than Lithium batteries.

     

    The battery comparison table at Corvus Energy's web site indicates their battery is sized at 5,070 inches^3 and weighs 143 lbs. An equivalent sized PbC would weigh ~377.8 lbs (calculated from weight and size parameters published in "PowerCube Technical Specifications" formerly available on Rosewater Energy Group website) or 5.18X as much. One hour ratings presented on the two indicate the Corvus battery would deliver 6.5 kWh or ~2.5X the energy an equivalent sized PbC could provide in an hour.

     

    http://bit.ly/11ogL6B suggests Corvus batteries can be purchased retail at $1,300kWh. Wholesale or OEM pricing is likely lower. At $463 per .5 kWh implied by Axion's sale of NS999 batteries, PbCs cost $926 kWh "wholesale".

     

    Axion's pricing strategy could need some attention.
    15 Jun 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Amazing things can be done about weight by adding an extra 1" thick steel plate. I would also think there is a difference in price between prototype & commercial grade batteries so I would not take your price comparison as being in the real world going forward. Also, after looking at the Dow Kokam & Corvus sites, I think that the pricing doesn't include fabricating the total pack for the job which is not something the PbC is concerned with.

     

    Another item not addressed is cooling. Corvus advertises that simple air cooling is all that is required and the PbC is not concerned with cooling at all in single battery applications. Put a string of PbC in the confined space of a locomotive frame and it is of some concern. I've no idea about how a Dow Kokam will react to the same conditions but I'd bet it is larger problem than the PbC. Least I hope so.
    15 Jun 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    DR > " I think that the pricing doesn't include fabricating the total pack for the job which is not something the PbC is concerned with."

     

    Could be. But I'm not so sure. At least some of their products are described in press reports as packaged modules capable of functioning over a temperature range of -4 F to 140 F. http://bit.ly/16rGrmJ
    15 Jun 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Yeah, I read that and can't draw a conclusion. Another aspect to wonder about is shock. Can the Corvus stand up to the shockwaves that will often pass between the component layers without harm? I don't know but none of the advertised applications are nearly as big a jolt in 3 dimensions as a locomotive. So testing is going to happen and I'll be interested to know the outcome.
    15 Jun 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    Two points:

     

    First, dollars per kWh is the most meaningless metric in the battery industry because no applications are designed for 100% depth of discharge. None.

     

    They're fun figures to throw around, particularly if a manufacturer doesn't clearly specify whether it's talking about cell, module or pack level costs, with and without ancillary temperature control and battery management systems. Lithium talks a good price game but generally doesn't deliver one.

     

    Second, the implied price from the first PbC order is meaningless because those batteries were built and sold before Axion commissioned the new carbon sheeting line that stripped 80% to 90% of the labor cost out of the battery.

     

    The general rule of efficiency curve economies is that a manufacturer will reduce the cost of value added activity by 20% to 30% with each doubling of cumulative production volume. Axion has already reaped one huge efficiency curve effect and will reap others as it learns how to manufacture electrode efficiencies. The manufacturing methods used by Dow Kokam and by transitivity by Corvus are fully standardized industrial processes that have been used for decades by the best manufacturers in the world. There is no significant room for future cost improvements.
    15 Jun 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Corvus energy safety procedures: from their website.

     

    Charge current - We recommend a charge rate of 1C or less. Please contact Corvus if a higher rate is required.

     

    Charge temperature - The battery should be charged at temperatures between +10°C and +45°C.

     

    10C is about 50F
    15 Jun 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I'm interested in your perspective on "Dummy Tenders". It seems to me that the power source for the consist could treat this unit the same as with the NS design with drive motors. My only reservations in saying this are in two areas. First I'm not knowledgeable enough to understand if the diesel electric loco's have enough capacity in their drive systems to blend this stored energy in and out of the other loco's based on what they are already tasked with. Second is that I don't know how complex it would be to integrate this capability into their other loco's control systems. Would this be too complex / expensive and also would this not offer the RR the flexibility they need to swap units around as their work content shifts based on economic factors.

     

    So in guess what I'm saying is it's an interesting possibility but I'm way to far removed from the data to understand which is the better choice. Or does it depend?

     

    I will say though that I don't understand why one concept vs the other would give advantage to PbC or Lithium. I would think this would be more driven by the type of terrain you're dealing with. Lots of quick grade changes vs long gradual ones as an example. So favoring perhaps power density vs energy density respectively.
    15 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Edmund. Understood.
    15 Jun 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >metro ... There are many things that point toward Corvus being able to work as a rail solution and just as many that point to it being a poor choice for most of the routine, but severe, conditions encountered. I wish I knew more and apparently Norfolk Southern (and probably the entire railroad industry) is curious too. The grant extended barely pays for the cells at the prices quoted on the Dow site so NSC is willing to put a substantial chunk of their own money into this investigation.

     

    Me ... I'm curious to see how long it takes for a railroad to put batteries out there in an operational application. To date, only BNSF & Rail Power (the former & bankrupt one) have. Both were kinda', sorta' successful in a limited way & only BNSF 1205 has battery power (combined with fuelcells) working on the rails. The 3 other prototypes are nowhere to be found.
    15 Jun 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I'm still sad to this day that Axion never got their PbC batteries into a Green Goat a few years ago. I think it would have been a great trial for the PbC battery. I thought you were not a fan of this idea but if Axion was now sitting with 2-3 successful years in this application it could have gone a long way.
    15 Jun 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... The Green Goat is far-&-away my favorite choice for Axion PbC on the rails. It would have dominated the switching segment but unfortunately one idea was early, the other late. After the fires the railroads are leery of batteries & LAB in particular but have no other good choices so full battery power is a slow go. RJ Corman has been testing a newer and undisclosed battery at Rail Power Services in an update to the Goat since 2011 but has no real interest in commercializing it. They rather go with the tried-&-true diesel in multi-gensets.
    15 Jun 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    "RJ Corman has been testing a newer and undisclosed battery at Rail Power Services in an update to the Goat since 2011 but has no real interest in commercializing it."

     

    Thanks DRich, That's a darn shame. It's a great platform with the right battery. Far better than multi-gensets perhaps. Especially for yard work since you're often sitting and you're slowing and reversing so much. Screams as an ideal electrical storage on board application. Ideally capacitors, but in light of cost considerations perhaps a hybrid!
    15 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Suffice to say the idea is not dead but the railroads don't like it. The best application I can think of for a "Goat" is road switching which is the going out on the short lines and dragging customer loads into the yard to make up a train. I'm not convinced the NS999 will be good at this job (range anxiety exists here) and limited to the yard is not very many or versatile units.
    15 Jun 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Appreciate your perspective since I know little about rail. The only thing I can say that's positve about the NS999, if this is the case' is that even if there is only a certain level of yard work where it's best suited it still works for a company like NS because the platform is recycled. As such they can build fewer numbers with old locos with their internal resources they need to keep busy anyway. If you have that shop you better keep it working or it becomes a burden really fast.
    15 Jun 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Dummy Tenders defined as not motorized, auxiliary units in support of the power units are disliked for several reasons. First is logistics. They need a switcher & extra man-power to dig them out of storage or drop out of (or being of any use in) helper service instead of being able to to it themselves. It is why I can't see the UP cargo container swap system being useful. Second is that they are a drag on revenue by not adding as much power as possible to the efficiency of the consist. No one is going to pay extra for 50 tons of dead weight. Beside the safety aspect, the dead weight component of an LNG tender or just a 'dummy' battery box would have to make a huge dent in fuel savings to justify dragging it around.
    15 Jun 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info. DRich. Nice to have someone that knows rails. Always willing to learn a little. :)
    15 Jun 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Thanks, but my actual pool of knowledge for the rails is truly shallow.
    15 Jun 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Well it's deeper than mine and not so murky.

     

    I've worked in automation controls and power devices for synchronous and asynchronous as well as lean assembly operations so I'm familiar with the types of technology used. However the exact technology and how it's packaged is different because of the harsh environment and unique life cycle. Far far more demanding and thus the caution on signing up for "New and Improved".

     

    For some time I thought that the Railpower efforts would have offered an easier path for Axion to enter the industry with what I consider a viable alternative. Now I'm thinking it hurt more than it helped.

     

    A program to upgrade a GG would have been the type of program I'd have championed if I was in rail. I loved taking solid concepts that were not implemented well and upgrading them in their weak areas getting big bang for the buck returns. I like the value proposition. Man, I wish someone had done this with their heart and soul in it.
    15 Jun 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "... wish someone had done this with their heart and soul in it".

     

    Bean counters have those?! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jun 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Understand this about the railroads, they are quick to adopt. I know in your former life in and near the autos that long duration testing is a good thing & the norm. It is not in railroading. Not unless it is highly capital intensive and disruptive to normal operations. Things like the current rail upgrade program have been decades in the test, evaluation & planning. Something like a locomotive (Green Goat, gensets, NS999, BN7149, BNSF1205) , air brakes, SPRINT lives or dies in the field.
    15 Jun 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    So what has happened to the tracking chart for comments to this "blog"?

     

    Did you switch to meaningful additions?
    14 Jun 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    Seems I'm stuck on 205 comments. ex post posto edit: just got bumped to 206.
    14 Jun 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    I still keep track of total comments but the Axion Power Host agreed with my suggestion that a weekly update was too much useless data. I'm sure updates will be posted from time to time, but only for interesting milestones.
    15 Jun 2013, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2237) | Send Message
     
    A wacky view of my moving to the sidelines on AXPW.

     

    I have a tendency to completely screw up some calculations so please correct any ignorance displayed. I only got 4 hours sleep last night and no, I wasn't having any fun. I sold all my shares at .3246 because a 70% loss was my red line. I recently bought half the number of shares I had before at .195. If I increase my holdings by purchasing all the additional shares I can buy with the money I got when I exited at .3246 I will gain more then 50% more shares.

     

    Now here's the way I view it. Selling at .3246 and rebuying at .195 is the same as a short sell. The lower purchase price for the same number of shares represents a profit in money recovered, plus you have a tax loss on the sale. You are providing your own margin money on the short sale with no interest. All this is only true if you rebuy later.

     

    Now what is stupid about this view? Oh! You might miss the big pop. So you had better be reasonably certain about a continuing fall in price at least in the near term. You can protect yourself somewhat with a trigger order if the pps hits a certain number. You might have a fewer number of shares but if you calculate the trigger order properly you can greatly minimize the damage.
    15 Jun 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    It sounds like you made a good trade, but a short sale involves selling shares you don't own in the hope that the price will fall.

     

    You just made an advantageous exit and re-entry. That kind of out and back in trading is possible with a small account and a lot of luck. It's much harder with larger blocks, or if too many people try to implement the same strategy and flood the market on either the sell or the buy side.
    15 Jun 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    BW: the solution I use to reduce the cost of missing the pop is to keep a "core" number of shares. Then to reduce the opportunity cost I have some small blocks allocated specifically for trading. These latter are the ones I buy at what I think is a good price with an expectation of a near-term rise (and boy have I missed on that a few times) that I will sell at some indeterminate percentage of gain.

     

    Net-net, I won't do as well as if I could time the market really really well and go all-in and all-out, but it let's me manage some of the opportunity cost and risk while slowly growing my core position.

     

    One of the things I think I've learned is I need to seriously consider making my core smaller. Being overweight now with price doing what it's been doing won't be compensated by the JP-predicted crying about being underweight when the rocket blasts off.

     

    My personal feeling is the short-term euphoria (and that's certainly what it will be with us humans being the way we are) doesn't make up for the long-term aggravation of trying to work in a long-term predominately uncooperative market trend.

     

    Living and learning (hopefully), and MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Jun 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2237) | Send Message
     
    In my case HTL (and JP) I just reached a point where I couldn't stand staying in any longer financially and then things got interesting enough and at so low a pps that I couldn't stand staying out any longer.

     

    I did consider that I could probably get back in later with the same exit money for more shares later, but it wasn't a strategy move out. It was a "no mas" exit for me.
    15 Jun 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I think many (Maya, etc) did the same as BangWiz but most are unlikely to return even those who said they would when it got too cheap to ignore. So far no-one has missed the train. At this point I'd settle for a greyhound; something needs to start the journey upward. Sometimes I think we stepped into a mineshaft =(
    15 Jun 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    Bazooka, anyone who know about AXPW still watches to see if anything ever develops. But we are in a total "show me the money" mode. Not another 30 batteries to ePower, but revenue generation numbers that move the needle now, not 2-3 years from now. The opportunity cost is just too great .

     

    An order for 500-1000 batteries may not be enough either if it is just a small test and deployment is still years away.
    15 Jun 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    Did Maya sell out?
    16 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    LT> Each ePower truck uses 56 batteries, not 30. ePower's planned ramp rate is 10 trucks this year, 100 next year and much larger volume in the out years if its series hybrid solution gains traction with trucking companies.

     

    OEMs are fond of multi-year testing programs before they adopt a technology for their product lines. End users who are scrambling to reduce their single biggest operating expense and see no significant cost difference between a conventional rebuild and an ePower rebuild are more willing to make rapid implementation decisions based on their economics and experience.
    18 Jun 2013, 04:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    Whether ePower uses 30 or 60 batteries was not the point, it is that either way it's not enough to move the needle short term to bring buyers back in....when they do 100 then u get investors.

     

    as to testing, everyone is sick of it and the NDA's that go with it. At this point, there is no reason for years and years of "more" testing.
    18 Jun 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    In transition stage companies like Axion it's the EXPECTATION of sales that moves the needle, rather than the sales themselves. If you want proof look no farther than TSLA, NFLX or a legion of others that trade on the basis of expected future sales instead of sales history.

     

    Unfortunately the OEMs are the ones who write the rules on testing and they're more than a bit finicky when a $500 component decides whether their $50,000 product is an automobile or a planter box. The process takes the time it takes and there's nothing you, me or Axion can do about that reality. I don't like the excruciating amount of time devoted to testing, but I know there's nothing I can do about it.
    18 Jun 2013, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Wow, almost been a year. Seems like 20 cents might not have been the worst buy. It is possible Axion has bottomed.
    1 Apr, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    If you posting in this concentrator, # 244, you're right! It's been almost a year as # 319 is current! ;-))

     

    He-he. I love when some does something similar to what I've done in the past!

     

    But don't worry - your secret's safe with me. ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Apr, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    I'm gonna tell ;-)
    1 Apr, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (163) | Send Message
     
    Tell that to BMW. You're preaching to the choir here.
    1 Apr, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    It's fun to look back and analyze my own and others thinking as the story has progressed and regressed over time.

     

    Past year hasn't been too bad except for the dip to 10 cents. Anyone who has bought or averaged down under 25 cents isn't in too bad of shape (as of now).
    1 Apr, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2237) | Send Message
     
    Question for the tape watchers. What happened for there to be a trade for yesterday's high - .265?
    15 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Bang, It was discussed in the last concentrator.

     

    You might have hit the trigger point! Bang! ;))
    Thus my caution on what mm's can do with an MT order book.
    -
    John and Metro. Thanks for the comments on the OTR loco. Probably better not to mix functions too much between locos. Warranties and complexity etc.
    15 Jun 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2237) | Send Message
     
    I don't place market trigger orders. I place limit orders with a sufficiently high enough price that I will probably catch a major uptrend. The last time I did it with Axion I think it was with a limit trigger order at .40 when it was in the .20's.
    15 Jun 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    It sure would be nice if we could get eyes on the NS-999 to determine what, if anything, is happening with it.
    15 Jun 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    More on the direction BMW and the auto industry is going.

     

    BMW launches new 4 Series with 1 diesel, two gasoline engines; Air Curtains and Air Breather

     

    http://bit.ly/17OKEEm
    15 Jun 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    With zero to 62 mph times under 6 seconds, the 4 Series BMWs are some smokin hot Eco-cars.
    15 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Yeah but they are not getting rave reviews for their SS systems. Table about half way down the page. I realize the tech. differences in the comparison but remember that BMW is a premium priced motor car.

     

    Start/Stop: Making the Most of Just Hanging Around

     

    http://bit.ly/19asgUi
    15 Jun 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2237) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article and summary Inndelco. Even more interesting that the BMW manual transmission SS system got a grade of D by Road and Track for being "distracting" on restart and that BMW was working with Axion's PbC towards an improved SS system.
    15 Jun 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Bang, I always think quickly of Cadillac when I see a premium motor car put anything over it's wheels that isn't rated well above average. People pay a good premium for vehicles like this and only a portion of the premium is for real advantage. A bunch is for soft side perceptions and you better respect the audience because margins matter. GM failed miserably and turned a renowned premium motor car brand into a joke for a long time. Hard if not impossible to ever get the shine back. That's why I emphasize that BMW better fix this. We're hoping Axion is part of the solution and betting on it.
    15 Jun 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Yup, I was excited when that article came out a year back.Thought for sure we'd bottom in the .30s back then. The Axion/BMW news is out there but needs to be widely known by others. Maybe this year we get BIG announcements.
    15 Jun 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    Calling it the 4 series is brilliant marketing. It takes my breath away - it's that diabolically simple and effective.

     

    I would love to know who the guy (or girl) was that piped up in the middle of the marketing session for the 3 series coupe and said "let's call it the 4 series". That person is going places.

     

    D
    15 Jun 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    But an Honorable Mention in Road and Tack. The fourth paragraph from the bottom:

     

    "BMW has teamed with Axion Power investigating such a Pb-C alternative to today's AGM (absorbed glass mat) battery. Its current Auto Start Stop continues with the latter technology."
    15 Jun 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    That's an extremely nice head nod from a publication like Road & Track. It's the kind of off the cuff mention that sparks interest in the subject of stop start batteries and maybe generates a Google search that will almost certainly lead to one of my articles.
    16 Jun 2013, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    This:
    "BMW has teamed with Axion Power investigating such a Pb-C alternative to today's AGM (absorbed glass mat) battery. Its current Auto Start Stop continues with the latter technology."
    is from 2012, correct?
    16 Jun 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, Yes. I posted it to point out BMW's dismal rating on their SS. There are also numerous other reviews from automotive publications that continue to rate their system in a negative light.

     

    By Dennis Simanaitis April 18, 2012
    16 Jun 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Today's post is getting rather long and I'm not done yet - more digging to do - so I thought I'd get this part posted. The instablog should be updated in a few hours, hopefully. I added a new line that will be updated going forward that I feel is worth following.

     

    06/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 169, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 49800, Vol 742259, AvTrSz: 4392
    Min. Pr: 0.1970, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2122
    # Buys, Shares: 87 358787, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2160
    # Sells, Shares: 80 380472, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2087
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 3000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2070
    Buy:Sell 1:1.06 (48.3% “buys”),DlyShts 310280 (41.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 81.55%
    85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2465, in 40 days: $0.2095

     

    I've added a new line to my EOD summary. See the details of financing filing, http://1.usa.gov/10iUMmd
    “29. CERTAIN DEFINITIONS”, item (k) “Company Conversion Price” on page 36, (ii) “Pre-Installment Conversion Price” detailed on page 43, and (xx) “VWAP” on page 45, all in the provided link, so that you can check my math. The VWAP determination may not match my calculations, although I would be surprised if it didn't.

     

    Also keep in mind when you read the sections that these calculations can be overridden.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jun 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION: I forgot to change my test formulas from forty days to 20 days before publishing!

     

    The corrected new line is
    85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jun 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Good thing to keep track of.
    16 Jun 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    TB: I think Axion got themselves in a bind with this deal. Because of the 20 days within 40 days periods, today just to hold even on the potential price we have to trade $0.2492 or better as that price falls off the tail today. Tomorrow same price and then a few more days: $0.2484, $0.2478, $0.2466, $0.2448 and $0.2446.

     

    Mo' betta ("fair", if that even applies in business deals) would've been at least the middle 20-days.

     

    I wonder if the bind got so tight that they didn't take the time to do the math to see the effect of this financing deal.

     

    Gonna take some big news, I think, to prevent every month being a larger issue of shares than the prior month.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    HTL, this was probably the only deal they could get. and yes the math sucks. The reality is beginning to show. Don't get me wrong, I sincerely hope there is "big, good news".
    17 Jun 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    HTL, also remember that Friday July 5th is a big day, because the 15% discount calc uses the lower of the VWAP for the biz day before an Installment Date (first one is Monday, July 8th I think) and the lowest 20 days calc as u pt out. So will be interesting to see what the heck happens July 5th. If the price at EOD July 3rd is anywhere close to the lowest 20 day average, then we might see some hammering.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Yes, that's why I made sure in my post including the links to point out the price could be overridden.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    The rooster crows.

     

    Siemens presents three-point plan for implementing cost-efficient energy transition in Germany

     

    "As a first measure, this “feed-in priority” should be replaced by a “feed-in responsibility”. In the future, providers of renewable energies would have to market their electricity just as reliably as other suppliers. To guarantee their supply commitments, they must secure their capacity with flexible power plants or with storage. This would create an energy market in which only the amount of electricity actually in demand is fed into the grid."

     

    http://bit.ly/11qRrNf
    16 Jun 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Happy fathers day all!
    16 Jun 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (852) | Send Message
     
    "BMW manual transmission SS system got a grade of D by Road and Track for being "distracting" on restart and that BMW was working with Axion's PbC towards an improved SS system."

     

    "That's why I emphasize that BMW better fix this. We're hoping Axion is part of the solution and betting on it."

     

    I have to believe that BMW is taking this VERY seriously. Their current SS must be a real embarrassment for them, and are mostly likely determined to fix it. It's hard for me to imagine that after 3-4 years of rigorously testing the PbC, and now making concerted efforts to ensure reliable supply, that Axion won't be the primary beneficiary of their determination to "get it right".
    16 Jun 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    I’ve had ongoing conversations with one of the RoseWater folks since meeting them last summer at the annual meeting. I also spent some time with them at the CEDIA show in the fall. They’ve been very kind and surprisingly open throughout.
    I am writing this note now after I asked for and received permission to share specific information with this board. My agenda is to report what I have learned and therefore contribute in a positive way to this board. I haven’t sold a single share of my over-allocated position in Axion and while some of the information doesn’t paint Axion in a favorable light, I think it’s appropriate to share the information and let you all make your own decisions.
    Rosewater, over the course of this year, has become very, very frustrated with Axion. If I had one sentence, I would describe the conflict as a sales vs. management conflict. We all know these are often very murky even when one has access to both sides. There aren’t a lot of facts, but this is what I have to share:
    1. RoseWater described to me two instances where it submitted a RFP response for grid storage projects. In both cases the contract went to the low bidder and in both cases the winning bid incorporated Lithium Ion batteries. I received no numbers or information on project scope.
    2. As far as the Residential Hub goes, both Axion and RoseWater have referred to manufacturing issues. It is my understanding that it proved to be impractical to build commercial units using the design and bill of materials of the prototype unit. This was Axion’s responsibility and RoseWater feels that Axion, in addition to not performing, also misled RoseWater and shareholders. My contact is very angry at Axion’s management and does not expect to sell Axion’s batteries as long as current management is still in place.
    I don't know the Axion perspective. The one point I can state for sure is that a week or two after hearing from my RoseWater contact about how angry he was with Axion, I listened to Mr. Granville in the Q1 conference call state (I'm paraphrasing) that all was well and that he thought 2013 was going to be a very good year for the Residential Hub.
    BTW, here are the recent events. On May 16th, Mr. Granville, in the Q2 call, said that there was a problem with the electronics and that it would be resolved by year-end. He didn't mention RoseWater by name. We all know that in recent weeks RoseWater removed most references to Axion from its web site and recently announced a sale that did not incorporate PbC batteries.
    I've tried here to report the information and perspectives as objectively as possible. Obviously, I only received one side of the story.
    16 Jun 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    APMarshal: Excellent that you shared. Now we have a chance to see if Axion will be forthcoming about the Rosewater relationship next time around since it is out in the open.

     

    It's a shame that they apparently ... wouldn't recognize or acknowledge the severity of the rift in some fashion, but really not surprising or unusual from what I've seen since I began trying to learn about investing.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Jun 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    APM, Thanks for sharing your findings. Also, if you have a subsequent conversation with your contact at Rosewater please share our thanks for sharing their perspectives concerning their relationship with Axion.

     

    I'll not add anything to your comments other than my perspective on the complexity of building the Rosewater Hub. Even with a poor set of prints, if they have the model with them and it functions, this is not a complex build. Any tech. should be able to correct the print errors in a very short time frame. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being hardest this is a 2 in any job shop that does panel work. Yes, it's a shame and Axion is responsible from what I have garnered about the relationship.

     

    Not looking for an answer but you have to wonder how this relationship got so out of hand.
    16 Jun 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    APM,

     

    Thank you. Seems some of the rumors I heard are true. I also agree there are always two sides in a divorce. Somewhat disconcerting that RoseWater (whom we are told go back 10 years with Axion) have now severed their relationship. Sure seems like TG will have to pull some rabbits out at the shareholder meeting - otherwise the tide might be against him.
    16 Jun 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2528) | Send Message
     
    APM,

     

    Are the Rosewater principles still stockholders in Axion?

     

    TIA
    16 Jun 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Great job, apm. I will say there are a couple other material things RW has to say, so I once again encourage folks here to communicate with them.

     

    I still think the PbC battery itself has enormous potential, and still wish it was in the hands of a much more capable group of stewards.
    17 Jun 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    1. Axion is a battery electrode manufacturer. They make batteries to prime the market pump, and maybe battery management systems. Design and constructing consumer electronics is another business. There has to be some companies with expertise in this.
    2. Hard negotiators can negotiate themselves out of a job. Sometimes nickles need to be thrown around like nickels.
    16 Jun 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    JohnM, I've designed and had built hundreds of panels of equivalent or far more complexity than the Rosewater HUB. It is not uncommon to have print errors and during construction wiring errors. There are many many fine shops where the construction of this 2 door HUB is the equivalent complexity to a chef making mashed potatoes. Something more is going on than print errors in the wiring and some stock list exclusions. Relationships don't end over such common occurrences.

     

    BTW, Some print errors are mistakes and some are intentional. On occasion a design and build shop will leave errors in a design if they lose the competitive bid process for the build. This however would not matter much for the HUB because it's such a simple build/debug.
    16 Jun 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    "Something more is going on than print errors in the wiring and some stock list exclusions. Relationships don't end over such common occurrences".

     

    Inde, I agree. and personally do see why TG should have until the next cc or shareholders meeting to explain his misleading statement.
    16 Jun 2013, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "Something more is going on than print errors in the wiring and some stock list exclusions."

     

    And, I'm thinking it could have something to do with intellectual property ownership and product branding issues. Is the product a Rosewater Residential HUB or an Axion Residential HUB? Was it misprint in Rosewater's PR
    16 Jun 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (885) | Send Message
     
    How did they get UL certification if there were errors in the design?
    17 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    I want to thank AP Marshall for his insightful report. I have met Mr.Marshall and know that he believes in getting to the truth of issues.

     

    However, to the meat of the matter. I agree that their are many issues that face RoseWater and Axion. Grid storage projects are probably the most difficult to win. If Axion was of the belief that selling at a discount in order to win the project was a bad idea, I can see why they lost the bid. Obviously Lithium has been selling at some loss for awhile. But, I understand why RoseWater would expect Axion to go after the order.

     

    I can not imagine how good communication was happening between Axion and RoseWater if they didn't understand the basic bidding structure or agree as to the approach to take on these types of bid.

     

    I am concerned if TG tried to pull the wool over the eyes of shareholders on the Residential Hub future.

     

    I had little hope for the HUB to begin with. But exagerating its importance would not set well with me. Trying to sell the HUb without RoseWater's sales connections would be ludicrous.

     

    TG definitely needs to address the issue in the next CC>

     

    BTW, I was approached by RoseWater to inquire of them if I had any questions. I appreciated the offer and appreciated even more the fact that they did not ever say anything that disparaged the PbC product. I found them to be very professional. Like my friends gettting divorced, I tend to listen to little on each sides until they all remarry.
    16 Jun 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I agree with what you say about divorces and "sides". However I did have one newly divorced friend who owed me some significant money and I knew that after lawyers and alimony I'd really have trouble collecting on that loan since I was the least of his worries (and I'm still waiting).

     

    I think some here feel Axion has many other issues now and they can't be too worried about pleasing shareholders if they are indeed having trouble with former friends and business partners.
    16 Jun 2013, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    re: apmarshall's post above

     

    "This was Axion’s responsibility and RoseWater feels that Axion, in addition to not performing, also misled RoseWater and shareholders "

     

    IMO, when all finally comes out & the dots are connected, we will see that the shareholders have been "misled" on many fronts over many years. Here is just a few:
    -mfg. issues
    -Price of PbC
    -time frame of customers that may adopt the tech
    -PbC version 1.0 overall performance (think ePower changing bat's.)
    -and now the latest statement about the HUB/Rosewater
    -300% growth
    -Hold on to the seat of your pants guys

     

    I'm sorry guys, but I don't believe anything mgt. says or what we have read. That's why I am out, and won't buy back untill there is change that shows me the money.
    17 Jun 2013, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough LT, you make some valid points. Good luck and hopefully management lives up to whatever expectations we currently have of them!
    17 Jun 2013, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    LT: "misled" re "-PbC version 1.0 overall performance (think ePower changing bat's.)"

     

    I don't think so. We were never told that it would accelerate fine from 35-55 MPH, or whatever the numbers were. ePower liked version 1.0 well enough pass on that the equipment played well together and to maintain the relationship and take delivery of V 2.0 of the batteries.

     

    If anybody here thought that V 1.0 would be perfect from the get-go, which certainly was a possibility, it wasn't due to management's words, IIRC.

     

    ePower and Axion had the performance metrics available for the batteries and, more than likely, a "gut hunch" they would do all right over the anticipated route. I doubt that a robust simulation process with computerized modeling of power, energy, ... requirements over the planned route, such as NSC might have available, was used to match up to the batteries known performance characteristics. I think it was "These look like they might do - let's throw 'em in there and see what we see".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Buenos días!!

     

    Recommend reading the following article:

     

    5 charts to tell if stock buyers are too bullish
    http://on.mktw.net/12Q...

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    17 Jun 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks Carlos. All five charts are very enlightening for those who take the time to understand them.
    17 Jun 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    Which stage do you think we are with AXPW?

     

    Regards,
    A
    17 Jun 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    My favorite emotions and expectations graph is the Gartner Group's Hype Cycle Indicators. The last time I used it was here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    That article also used a very good graph from Osawa and Miyazaki that depicts the business Valley of Death which reaches a low point between the initial product launch and success as a new product.

     

    The quick answer is that emotional cycles are a lather, rinse, repeat process.

     

    The first emotional cycle begins when a company starts an R&D project. For that cycle, expectations are highest in the early days and reach very depressed levels when the R&D is completed and everybody is waiting on the market's judgment about whether an innovation has value.

     

    The end of the first cycle is identified on the Gartner Graph as the innovation trigger. Once there are clear signs that the market believes a new product has value, the Gartner Hype Cycle begins in earnest.

     

    Axion is an odd duck because it went public far too early in the PbC's lifecycle. We knew it was a suboptimal choice from the outset, but there were so many conflicting claims to the technology that a public company looked like the only way to resolve them.

     

    I believe Axion is at the bottom of the Valley of Death and shows clear signs of starting the long climb up to success as a commercial business. While nothing in Axion's history has developed as quickly as I thought it would, it hasn't been forced to make the sacrifices and compromises that I feared would be necessary to get the PbC to this point. Where most products lose a lot between the early lab prototypes and the final commercial version, the PbC has gotten better over time as Axion learned how to make it, and then learned how to make it better.
    17 Jun 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Going forward though, we need to see the sales strategy starting to payoff by landing the critical number ONE customer. Once this happens, then I can confidently say that we have turned the corner, and not hanging around in the dark corners of the Valley of Death anymore. Only then will the stock price respond
    17 Jun 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    There are many Axionistas who think Customer No. 1 will be the key event to get the needle moving in another direction. In my experience emotions and expectations are far more nuanced and subtle than that. Customer No. 1 will do it for sure, but only if Customer No. 1 is clearly more than one-off event.

     

    What the market is really looking for is an accumulation of customer activity that creates confidence in the PbC's commercial future. ePower was a good start, but folks aren't yet sure that it will move the revenue needle. Getting the NS 999 out of the shop would be a good addition, but without news of a follow-on order the response will be muted. Sales of stationary systems will also be good additions, but without an expectation of repeat business they might not do much individually.

     

    Overall it's a weighing of fear against expectations, and very hard to predict what it will take to change the balance from profound pessimism to guarded optimism.
    17 Jun 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Exactly JP. These trends unfortunately take a LONG time to develop and no one can really predict for sure when such activity will start piling up, which makes it difficult for a lot of us - me included- to keep our frustrations bottled up in a wait and see mode. Some go as far as to accuse TG of sabotaging opportunities to bring PbC to market (the RoseWater case). We certainly hope that was not the case, or at least that there was a very good reason not to pursue the HUB opportunity. As I said before, it may not have been the best niche market for us, but it could have helped a lot to bring our products to the market quite soon!
    17 Jun 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    Well said. This essentially sums up my thinking as well. The Navy Yard, the one active PJM Cube, the one NS-999 order, the one Residential Hub, the one e-Power truck, et al. At this time, I'm completely discounting any auto-app until it's parked in front of New Castle.

     

    At this time, while I love the ePower truck app, IMO the next pps movement hope comes from Norfolk southern. Based on their taking final delivery in January I figure NS could have the 999 ready for testing during the summer and into the fall. If NS accompanies the launch of NS-999 with any fanfare, I would be amazed. Certainly the pps moves when the NS-999 does, but many here are looking for (and expecting) movement that will only come, as you say, with repeat orders. If they love the NS-999, what sort of follow-up might be possible? Is the switcher market a big enough start? I don't know, but if an OTR app looks like it come quickly thereafter, that would be huge. It's that bit of info I was after earlier. How similar are the RR apps? Years of testing or just a few months of reconfiguring?
    17 Jun 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    The bottom line is that Rosewater couldn't generate orders that Axion could afford to accept. Some might argue that Axion should have sold at a loss to get the order. I take an entirely different view because it takes a big balance sheet to buy for a dime, sell for a nickel and make it up on volume over the long term. It also takes stockholders who are willing to accept negative gross margins and those types are few and far between.

     

    I've generally found that the amount of performance required to create guarded optimism is directly related to the length of time an investor has been a stockholder. New investors excite easily while it takes a lot to impress the old timers. That dynamic is fine as long as the old timers remain stable "show me something I can sink my teeth into" types because you really want the market to respond to new investors joining the party instead of old investors increasing their stakes.
    17 Jun 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    "That dynamic is fine as long as the old timers remain stable "show me something I can sink my teeth into" types because you really want the market to respond to new investors joining the party instead of old investors increasing their stakes."

     

    JP, was it not just a year or two ago that you were encouraging axionsitas to buy the shares the big uglies were dumping and using reference to an "inflection point" of when the shares would be gone & the price would rise ?
    Even to the point of fussing at them for bottom fishing with their bids under the bid/ask ?

     

    Where is that "inflection point" now? and after this raise is completed?
    17 Jun 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • VictorG45
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    What a great set of charts ! Looks like we are at the despondency and discouragement point.
    17 Jun 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    This blog has been a tale of opposites: excellent source of information and thinking about the PbC and its potential mkts, and an equally terrible source of prognostications. As much as I absorb the first, I ignore the second.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    LT> The stock held by the big uglies did get absorbed just about the time I said it would. Then the trolls in Axionista clothing (they know who they are) started in with dire prognostications for the next capital raise which muted the victory and set off a whole new round of stockholder angst.

     

    I can do a pretty good job of predicting the facts, but never claimed any particular insight into emotion.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (885) | Send Message
     
    <<The bottom line is that Rosewater couldn't generate orders that Axion could afford to accept. >>

     

    I find it troubling, though, that they were not able to undercut lithium ion based systems. Lithium will always win if there is no price advantage to PbC.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    When lithium-ion battery manufacturers are willing to sell systems at a steep loss for the sake of booking an order the only two choices are (1) let them self-immolate, or (2) get into the game with a bigger can of gasoline. I'm glad Axion has chosen to avoid the self-immolation path.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... The Li-on industry is in desperation mode. The bond wolves are at the door. Selling at a small or deep loss in immaterial in pursuit of cash flow ... No, problem ... at the moment. When you look out over an under utilized factory floor and have loans to pay monthly an unrealistic pricing structure can emerge and has. In the short run it is a good thing for application vendors like Rosewater. In the long run manufacturing margins will have to go up and industry consolidation will complete. End-user customers will be unhappy unless the forecast massive drop in battery prices becomes reality.

     

    Axion would be insane to join that game.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    DRich: So true. For a recent prototypical model, I think you can look at the PV industry over the last 6 years or so.

     

    Over-capacity caused desperate price cuts and the consolidation took down some very major names, here and abroad, including large Chinese ones, still limping along(?), like LDK.

     

    Can the Li-ion battery industry avoid the same solely on the strength of government impetus in a "free" market that depends on individual choice, over the long haul?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    DRich, the problem for AXPW investors is that time waiting for the rationalization is very expensive in terms of shares outstanding.

     

    As we wait for that rationalization, ePower to make its engine change, NS to build its first PbC 999 then test it then order more PbCs, the SBIR funding project to progress eventually to sales, etc., it seems clearer and clearer to me that BMW news may be by far the most important publically known news catalyst for the foreseeable future.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (885) | Send Message
     
    Even with selling at losses, Li-ion is still pretty expensive. Well over $500/kwh wholesale. I would have hoped PcC could undercut that even while making a profit.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... Axion might be able to undercut at profit today where 1 & certainly 2 years ago it couldn't. You really need to appreciate just how poor Axion has always been and still gotten the needed jobs done.

     

    >Mr Investor ... I am sort of disappointed about the financial deal for that reason also but I can live with it as long as Axion doesn't go crazy like, say Great Western did by paying the bills with shares. It definitely lengthened the time & raised the needed revenue stream to get my time value of money to breakeven. More importantly I see this last financing round extending the time Axion will not qualify to be on a real exchange. Lastly, and biggest bummer to me, is that the future is more BMW dependent than I'd ever hoped because it will be what brings the thing Axion can't live without and needs more than ever, a manufacturing partner. A pity that Exide, JCI, EP or Enersys just never saw fit to partner with Axion like the Li-on industry did with Polypore or some of the electrode materials vendors.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Well Exide wanted to s**ck it to Axion back in 2009 on the 34 million stimulus grant but management was wise enough not to partner with them. JCI or Enersys probably wanted to swallow us because Axion is still a very small player and they thought they could get it on the cheap.

     

    I suspect TG is smart enough to understand the importance for Axion of having a deal done with BMW's battery supplier, and even if he is called to make some tough short term compromise, he will do it just so that Axion can get a global recognition for its product. At least that's what I would do if I were in his shoes...
    17 Jun 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    DRich, yes, we keep coming back to BMW, after all these other roads leading all over the place. I remember JP or someone else posting that the BMW potential was essential for the 12/2009 investors to invest. Back to the future I guess.
    17 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    In December 2009 the PbC had just completed the critical first six months of testing where an automaker decides whether a battery is or is not suitable for its needs. Since most batteries fail that testing, the first round success was very important for Axion's investment thesis.

     

    Today the PbC has completed another three years of more detailed testing and validation and progressed to the point where the customer is seeking solutions to a sole source provider problem.

     

    The suggestion that we're back where we started is disingenuous. The PbC has proven itself worthy in the industrial equivalent of special forces school. It's now sporting a jaunty green beret. The only thing lacking is the administrivia of team assignments and operational logistics before going into battle.
    17 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    To suggest that the BMW relationship/testing is back where it was 2 1/2 yrs ago would simply be wrong. My last sentence referred to a re-reliance on the BMW relationship for stock strength.
    17 Jun 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    With due respect I don't think Axion has ever relied on the BMW relationship for stock strength.

     

    The BMW opportunity was a key factor for the ten stockholders (including me) who consented to the corporate actions that made the 2009 financing possible. Like most of Axion's relationships, BMW stayed in stealth mode until they did a joint presentation with Axion at the September 2010 ELBC. By that time selling pressure from legacy stockholders had beat the price into the ground and there wasn't any news strong enough to overcome that pressure.
    17 Jun 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... I never thought you meant anything different.
    17 Jun 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    JP, I think the BMW potential moon shot is, was and will prob continue to be by far the single biggest factor in many, if not almost every, investor's AXPW buying decision. No way I would have invested if it wasn't there, nor would I consider it now. These other efforts, PC, HUB, NS, truck, etc., don't nearly move the investor needle enough, even cumulatively. At least not anymore. Not at all saying I think that's how it SHOULD be, just that is how I think it actually is.

     

    I've seen this issue time and again in penny stock investing--you gotta have a potential moon shot, or the stock is overlooked, or worse, toast.
    17 Jun 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    While automotive is one of my least favorite markets for reasons frequently discussed in these threads, it is the gold seal of approval because if you're good enough for automotive you're good enough for anyone.

     

    In my mind there are two things that would significantly bolster the market's perception of the likelihood of an automotive win. The first would be production partnerships with one or more first tier battery manufacturers. The second would be a disclosed development partnership with a first tier automotive systems manufacturer like Bosch or Valeo.

     

    While I don't feel comfortable assessing the timing of the former, the latter already exists behind the veil of an NDA and will become public knowledge if the DOE makes a favorable decision on the Phase II SBIR.

     

    Imagine the headline on the DOE's press release: "DOE Awards $1 Million to Axion Power With ___________ For Development of Advanced Micro-hybrid Systems"

     

    There's a 50/50 chance we'll see that headline in less than a month. The markets may ignore Axion press releases, but they don't ignore the DOE.
    17 Jun 2013, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Here's hoping the 3rd time is the charm.
    17 Jun 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    I agree. So far Axion's luck with the DOE has been dismal but I still love the idea of a DOE press release announcing a grant to Axion with a named industry giant in a supporting role.
    17 Jun 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    "So far Axion's luck with the DOE has been dismal"

     

    Well Axions luck has been tied to two major partners. Exide and GM. Exide and Axion did win the grant and the stock price moved up. Exide kept the grant money and the stock price faltered.
    GM did not win the grant and decided ( I guess) to not follow up with their own testing program.
    The latest phase one grant was granted with a new unknown partner.

     

    How things would have been different if Exide had been an honorable company to partner with. A new factory, a tier one supplier, a ready built sales force. But greed got the best of them.

     

    Im not sure what Axion management learned from that experience, but I'm sure TG and the board wear a TFH every time they meet with the large automotive suppliers.
    18 Jun 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    IIRC the project with GM was going forward with or without DOE money, but Axion was hoping for DOE action that would have publicly disclosed GM's involvement in a best supporting actor role. Since the DOE didn't say yes which would have forced the issue, the NDA stays in place until GM says otherwise.

     

    Unless I'm mistaken, Axion was the only named party on the SBIR Phase I Application. Unless I'm reading the 10-Q wrong, a named first tier partner has joined Axion in the Phase II Application in a supporting role. So once again, we have a reasonable shot at a DOE announcement that Axion is working closely with a first tier automotive systems developer that Axion has never mentioned in its public disclosures.
    18 Jun 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano1401
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    The partnership with Rosewater, even though built upon mutual ownership, failed due to Axion management, if the reports we have are correct. Possibly the failure of the partnership with Exide was the fault of Axion, not Exide. We only have supposition to think it was Exide, as far as I know.
    19 Jun 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    RP1401,
    What a loaded bag of unwarranted speculation on your part. We have a rough idea what happened with Exide and no real idea what happened with Rosewater. Take your innuendo back to the nether board.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (747) | Send Message
     
    Still no clues if the "...the consistent strong mileage results now being achieved by the ePower truck." is closer to 25% or 50%?
    (I saw a claim of 65% improvement back in a 2011 announcement using the old batteries.)

     

    Is it "amazing", "noteworthy" or "an improvement"? Are retrofits expected to trickle in or flood in? Will orders of batteries become "material from a revenue point of view" or stay modest?

     

    * I assume the improvement would be a comparison to other retrofit truck national average mileage.
    17 Jun 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: I think the accuracy of the estimated savings *may* be somewhat academic in that even only 25% will have customers breaking down the door.

     

    Of course, the industry is not standing still and newer trucks are improving in onesies and twosies in percentage. But I can't see those taking much from the retro-fit market that seems to be potentially huge as newer trucks keep getting more expensive.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    Prepare for disruptive solar tech:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Jun 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (434) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The graphs in the header have been updated thru the close Friday.

     

    Thanks!
    17 Jun 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    What are the odds that Axion mgt has soured other grapes or was rosewater not worth the time to worry about.
    17 Jun 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    The bottom line is Rosewater couldn't generate orders Axion could afford to accept. I don't see a whole lot of room for blame or sour grapes. But then again I grew up with the wisdom of the Scottish poet Robert Burns and know all to well what happens to the best laid plans of mice and men.
    17 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    John, If I recall correctly the second truck to be retrofitted by ePower with PbC was also originally upgraded with the ePower system but with LAB's for storage. Is this correct?

     

    Also, Do you have a feel for how much run time ePower has under their belt with the older versions of the trucks utilizing LAB's?
    17 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    I am also curious about how many trucks does ePower project to retrofit in the current year? Any data would help understand the potential revenue source that ePower represents

     

    Thanks!
    17 Jun 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    ePower built one first generation truck and then built two second generation trucks. It still owns the Gen1 unit but the two Gen2 units were sold to the same trucking company in Iowa.

     

    The week before last ePower drove the PbC version of the Gen2 truck to Iowa so the owner could see first-hand how it performed. While the Iowa trucker still wants a bit more power under the hood and is very interested in the Gen3 configuration with a six-cylinder Cummins engine, the road trip was apparently successful enough to convince the owner that upgrading his second truck to PbC was a good interim step.

     

    It didn't take much run time with AGM batteries for ePower to know that the AGM batteries weren't up to the regenerative braking loads, which is what brought them back to Axion. For the last six months ePower has been deliberately trying to break the PbC by doing things that used to fry AGM batteries and has been unable to do so.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    So once ePower upgrades the second truck that belongs to the individual customer is the intent to deliver this back to the customer as well or to then use this to squeeze more efficiency out of the John Deer/PbC set-up?

     

    Is the ePower owned truck going to function as the Cummins platform if that project moves forward? Sure hope they are in heated negotiations on this.
    17 Jun 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    The ePower owned truck is of historical significance only.

     

    It's unclear to me whether the second Gen2 truck will simply be refitted with batteries, or with batteries and the Cummins running gear.

     

    As near as I can tell, ePower has reached the end of its reliance on the John Deere system because it's not EPA Tier III road compliant while the Cummins system is. While the EPA originally told ePower "you guys fall through a crack in our regulations" which left a lot of experimental options open, ePower wants to be sure that everything it does on a go-forward basis is taking the high road rather than relying on the patience and grace of a government body.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John.

     

    If/when the Cummins deal is struck I hope they can share this in some fashion with those of us looking for signs of progress. It would obviously be a major milestone for ePower and Axion in support of ePower's aspirations of having a robust rebuild/upgrade package to offer the market.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    " rather than relying on the patience and grace of a government body"

     

    Well, thassa gut! Next thing you'd hear, if they did rely on the gummit, is they wanted them to use Li-ion batteries to help bring some success to the gummit-up programs.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    I hope the engine change doesn't mean longer time to revenue.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    Mr Investor,

     

    I personally wouldn't rely on ePower as an immediate source of revenue. Moreover, the number of retrofits in the short term does not suggest any significant revenue to AXPW. The contract we hopefully seal very soon will be with BMW's battery supplier.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: I don't believe getting Cummins to sign on to the project means the timeline gets stretched. If anything, it "gets real", which it probably really wasn't before. Its apparent that the JD engine was not going to get them to where the program needs to go to become "commercial". It served an R&D role, but the time for a change is here.

     

    From that point of view, this is the nail-biting aspect, ie, waiting to hear that Cummins is on the team.

     

    I have not seen an estimated timeline post-Cummins (as a baseline assumption), but I would expect several years of testing and development lies ahead.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, of course on your ePower comments. The significance of news items there is how it affects AXPW investors' perceptions of the potential revenue/gross income stream from ePower, the probability of that potential, and its timing. Significant "actuals" look to be at least 2 years away. Hopefully not more with the hoped-for engine change, but we've all seen timelines slip and slip with AXPW, so hopefully people here are realistic in their outlooks for timing at least, unlike, say, they were for NS and almost every other project.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    TB: "expect several years of testing and development lies ahead"

     

    This is one that would surprise me. Cummins already has an engine and generator set-up, no? Even w/o generator, the engine is well-tested and EPA-certified.

     

    So, programming the engine controller and BMS stuff should yield a testable unit quite quickly and the epOwer customers, who were willing to risk early with the JD set-up, should be even more willing with the addition of Cummins, the experience gained by ePower with Axion, etc.

     

    Volumes wouldn't start large, but the "nimble and quick" aspect of ePower's customers should come into prominence with the addition of Cummins, I would think.

     

    Trucking companies are not the long-term test and then buy folks - the long-term test falls to the OEM truck manufacturers I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Keep the

     

    http://bit.ly/11jJVHa

     

    Choke cleaner! ;)
    17 Jun 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    There are a good many "ifs" in the equation, HTL, not least of which whether or not Cummins IS on the team now.

     

    IF ePower has commercial sales by this time 2014, I will be very pleasantly surprised.
    17 Jun 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1491) | Send Message
     
    With this in mind, I fail to see whether we can reasonably expect any significant revenue stream even from the more advanced projects like automotive or RR, and more importantly, what would the market's reaction be to a scenario of no significant revenue in the next 18 months for example? Many shareholders would likely rebel, probably go as far as to ask for a change of management, etc...

     

    There are just too many wild cards out there for the moment, and I am unable to read these tea leaves
    17 Jun 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I can't tell you how much of that I used in my "yoot" (Thanks Cousin Vinny!) when carbs were in vogue.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, The programs that remain as opportunities to Axion, that we know of, will deliver more positive results for Axion based on news vs sales IMO.

     

    I was hoping for some of these other lesser opportunities to reduce our exposure to the capital raises but it's not panning out. Thus reduced short term expectations and a certain level of Axionista departure. All normal I'm afraid.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yup. Based on some of your shared gear head background I had no doubt you'd used a spritz or two! Works great.

     

    Too bad it couldn't cut back on the other Gummit-stuff to clean it up a bit. Oh well.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Excellent post, iinde. U hit the nail on the head.

     

    Like Axion itself, I was hoping for some PC sales to help fill the sales void. But looks like we've both scaled that back a lot.

     

    We've already had some posts about financing needs next year. Hopefully, NOT here we go again.

     

    Maybe the BMW news will involve the long-sought strategic investor, or at least help buoy the price enough to make a 2014 cap raise much better than this last crummy one.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    trip, I don't remember reading that ePower has done much if any recent testing using the Cummins engine, but I could easily have missed it. If ePower was a lot further into Deere testing, wouldn't it follow that a switch to Cummins means more testing? I don't know, many Cummins will help with that. At a minimum, not LESS testing?

     

    Increased legitimacy would be a very good thing of course, but I was not aware until now that the Deere engine ran a material risk of preventing sales. Makes one wonder what else has to happen/change. Just another example of the benefit of being very conservative with projects and their timelines when investing in these point risk penny stocks.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    The point is that Deere was going nowhere, whereas a switch to Cummins might go somewhere. The sooner they switch, the better. Far as I know there has been zero Cummins testing, and Cummins had been withholding support until the recent more positive reports.

     

    Absolutely, as I indicated in my post, a switch to Cummins WILL require more testing (I think another year or two, but others might disagree).

     

    If the idea was that ePower had a finished, commercial product with the Deere setup, yes, that hope appears to have been misplaced.
    17 Jun 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3985) | Send Message
     
    "... ePower wants to be sure that everything it does on a go-forward basis is taking the high road rather than relying on the patience and grace of a government body. "

     

    ISTM the question then becomes is ePower seriously in the business of converting diesel class 8 trucks to hybrid diesel-electric. I just don't see much prospect for more PbC sales to ePower any time soon.
    17 Jun 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (890) | Send Message
     
    I assume that if ePower was ready to go to market with their new engine they wouldn't have to reapply for EPA certification?

     

    If they would be forced to reapply to the EPA this would take quite a while for them being able to sell under that banner but I don't know if they would need it. I bought into Navistar in the summer of 2012 based on the assumption that approval from the EPA was imminent on their new engine. Originally NAV was going for an EGR engine and sued the EPA as the EPA was certifying the SGR engines which they had deemed inferior. They then switched to SGR and filed in Jan 2012, refiled in May 2012 and finally received approval in April 2013.
    17 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    ePower does not manufacture engines so it doesn't have EPA engine certification formalities. Currently there is no existing EPA classification that covers the engines in trucks with series hybrid drives, so there's a loophole. That being said loopholes are easily plugged and its smarter for ePower to plan its future assuming that it will be required to use a Tier 3 compliant engine. John Deere is not eager to do the work required to bring its four banger into Tier 3 compliance. The Cummins six cylinder ePower wants to use is already compliant.
    17 Jun 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    ZBB Energy President & CEO Eric Apfelbach to Participate in the Clinton Global Initiative June 13-14 in ChicagoFont size: A | A | A
    2:34 PM ET 6/13/13 | Marketwire

     

    ZBB Energy Corporation (NYSE MKT: ZBB), the leading developer of intelligent, renewable energy power platforms and hybrid vehicle control systems, today announced two distinct technology initiatives, one to enhance the performance of the cell stacks utilized in the current ZBB EnerStore(TM) 50 kWh product, and the other to develop a low cost 500 kWh flow battery system that leverages the aforementioned performance gains.

     

    ZBB has been working with an undisclosed, domestic, technology organization to develop specific materials to improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of ZBB's zinc bromide flow batteries, and formally entered into a development agreement with the organization in April of this year. The preliminary results of this joint effort, in conjunction with other internally developed advances, are expected to yield efficiency gains of up to 20% while simultaneously reducing materials costs.

     

    ZBB has also entered into a development agreement with an undisclosed offshore partner to develop the design of a new 500 kWh zinc bromide flow battery platform, providing less cost per kWh in markets requiring larger systems, such as utilities, grid connected microgrids and remote microgrids.

     

    "ZBB has aggressively pursued price and performance improvements for its zinc bromide flow battery products. We believe that the broad utility-scale market is now beginning adoption of energy storage, and that a sale price of about $500/kWh will accelerate market adoption. These design initiatives should enable our products to hit these cost levels. We are fortunate to have partners that can supplement the technical and financial resources of ZBB to accelerate these high leverage projects," said Eric Apfelbach, ZBB Energy President and CEO. "While still in the development phase, we believe the preliminary results will translate into significant performance gains as we commercialize the technology."
    17 Jun 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    ZBB gets a mention in the latest Navigant Research offering

     

    http://bit.ly/11jwh74

     

    Direct Current Distribution Networks

     

    Remote and Grid-Tied Systems for Data Center Microgrids, Telecom/Village Power, Commercial Buildings, and Military Applications: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts
    17 Jun 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2498) | Send Message
     
    Well, obvious for anyone watching Level II that ARCA is not done selling. :^(
    17 Jun 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (747) | Send Message
     
    One of the biggest PLUS from the ePower business is Real World usage available to the public eye.
    "That battery actually works, it's not just more hype."
    17 Jun 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    As I predicted, although not as large as I expected.

     

    5/21 41.7K failed to deliver. By 5/31 all but 3K had delivered. Took a weeks worth of trading. 5/21 fails probably traded 5/16 (allowing for T+3 before failure recognized). But what this does suggest to me and my TFH is that someone didn't bother to locate and borrow first before naked shorting. They just sold 41.7K when VWAP was $0.2592 and covered at lower intra-day prices over the next 10 days.

     

    Rolling outstanding fails:
    20130521 41700
    20130522 17600
    20130524 4850
    20130528 5000
    20130530 100
    20130531 3000

     

    Now, with the effectiveness date, 6/4(?), it'll be interesting to see what's next.

     

    Charts will get updated tonight. But this is not large relative to historical measures, but is large relative to the last few months.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Could've been a sloppy MM I guess. They aren't required to borrow first.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1463) | Send Message
     
    Isn't that small trade size more likely due to a sloppy MM than manipulation?
    17 Jun 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: those aren't trade sizes. Those are cumulative shares that did not settle in the mandated time frame. With the advent of our more active market makers, keep in mind how the average trade size has dropped. The MM could be innocent in this scenario: receives a sell order, does his normal naked-short expecting shares backing the sell order from the broker to flow in to net out and then they didn't. Maybe because the original sell order was somebody doing a naked short.

     

    The MM, who has now been handling very small order for a while now, might be culpable though. May have shorted some, w/o a backing sell order from a customer, just to make a market and then not been able to cover right away at an advantageous price. With the VWAPs subsequent to 5/16, this is certainly possible, although I can't say how likely.

     

    5/17-5/31 VWAPS:
    0.2599
    0.2575
    0.2594
    0.2598
    0.2644
    0.2646
    0.2593
    0.2628
    0.2713
    0.2709

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Third scenario: one of those unspecified reasons for a normal failure to deliver could've occurred ... but then why partial covers over 10 days? Something smells off in that case.
    17 Jun 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Responding to myself ...

     

    If I was willing to impugn the honesty of the "financiers", I would suggest someone that knew they would be getting shares for $0.264 decided to make a wee bit of easy money and then got delayed in covering by the effectiveness order not showing as quickly as might have been anticipated.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    IIRC RW stated a while back that they wou;ld be selling the HUB with different types of batteries and I thought that was strange since the HUB was an Axion product. Could that be part of the problem between AXPW and RW?

     

    RW has a new residential brochure on their site. No pictures of the product.

     

    "Though solar and wind power are typically
    variable and unreliable sources the Hub strengthens the
    incoming signal and bolsters power requirement loads with
    a vibrant substructure of high-capacity batteries to handle the
    constant stream of high demand and high importance components."

     

    and

     

    "The system will incorporates the most efficient and proven
    battery chemistries to ensure system reliability and optimal
    performance."
    17 Jun 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    KentG: Good question. From the conference call, it does look like Axion is moving forward on their Hub product and will have something by year-end.

     

    RoseWater, because Axion didn't have a product they could sell, eventually decided to build their own product. They expect their device will done and UL approved in time for the September CEDIA show. They continue to believe strongly in the potential of the high-end residential market.
    17 Jun 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    >apm:

     

    What is your understanding w.r.t the Axion and Rosewater products targeting the exact same market?

     

    I can't seen Axion winning this battle ... no expertise in selling into the high end "pure power" market as they had farmed that marketing all out to Rosewater (and according to my recall, having to be convinced to enter that market in the first place.) Even if by some chance they had a superior technical product, would it be so much so as to overcome superior marketing?

     

    Also don't see it being that big from a battery sales perspective.

     

    I haven't seen any demonstration that Axion is able to design and outsource to manufacture for the right price (that is sell to someone other than themselves) anything involving power electronics. I look forward to being proved wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.

     

    The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem ... knowing your strengths, your capabilities, your weaknesses and getting realistic.
    17 Jun 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    I don't know any more than you do about this and maybe that explains why your logic seems good to me.

     

    Personally, given the problems that Axion admitted to on the manufacturing side and the long time to market, it wouldn't surprise me a bit if they had discontinued work on the project early this year when their financial stress started to increase.
    17 Jun 2013, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    For those playing with the bonds. Some good news.

     

    California Superior Court Lifts Top Toxic Regulator's Suspension of Exide Technologies in Move Endangering Californians, Says Consumer Watchdog

     

    http://prn.to/11UXGMe
    17 Jun 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    06/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in the A/M.).
    # Trds: 112, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 436047, AvTrSz: 3893
    Min. Pr: 0.1951, Max Pr: 0.2120, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1999
    # Buys, Shares: 43 149396, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2026
    # Sells, Shares: 69 286651, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1984
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.92 (34.3% “buys”), DlyShts 141509 (32.45%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.37%
    06/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2292, in 40 days: $0.1948

     

    Nothing remarkable today. Based on the 10 and 25-day average trade sizes, 4,251 and 4,390 it looks like our new retail range is, indeed moving a bit lower. Today it's at the lower part of mid-range I guess. The buy percentage is a bit lower than the longer-term averages, 42% and 39% for the 50 and 100-day averages respectively. But it's still in a normal range. Volume is above the 50 and 100-day averages, 385K and 293K, as the VWAP continues to deteriorate (yesterday was $0.2122).

     

    One thing of note is that the fails to deliver data today shows what I expected and in subsequent comments in that thread I mention some possible causes. I'm leaning towards my TFH explanation as I can see no exceptional condition that would account for a “normal” delivery failure, as suggested in the SEC defense of these fails, to require a 10-day period to INCREMENTALLY close out the failed positions. For a fail with legitimate reasons, I think a single whack or two would've closed the fails. I'll have the related charts updated later. Note the paucity of fails-to-deliver that began to develop in the “Jan – Jun 2013” chart around 2/1/13. BTW, the charts are logarithmic.

     

    Yesterday I said “If the VWAP improvement holds, I'll be surprised just on general principal. But the are some indications that it may hold”. Not surprised yet in spite of the presence Friday of some things that said “maybe, just maybe”. Oscillators remained oversold, ADX deteriorated, volume on our slip down today remained relatively high, suggesting we aren't bottomed out yet (if ever!), And our high, low and close were all lower along with the VWAP.

     

    On my original inflection points, four of the six periods had weakening in the one-day change. Only the 5 and 50-day changes had improvement, with the 5-day showing substantial improvement while remaining a long way from positive. Changes over five days were split with the 5, 50 and 200-day improving whilst the rest weakened. The average rate of change over the five days supports what we see there.

     

    My newer version had the pretty visual pattern somewhat ruined by today's weakness. Needless to say, the one-day change reflected today's behavior, with only the 5-day continuing to show improvement while the other five periods weakened. Five of the six periods showed improvement of five days, with only the 100-day showing a minimal weakening. The average rate of change over those five days shows improvement across the board. But we need to remember that all the current calculations are still well below zero and so I interpret these rate changes as only suggesting reducing rate of weakening, not increasing strength.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    I keep forgetting that SA's comment system doesn't pick up links underlying text. For the 6/17 EOD post, the "shows what I expected" points to comments about fails to deliver expectations here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    "... the related charts updated later" has an embedded link to the fails to deliver instablog here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    This was updated this A.M. Keep in mind the charts are logarithmic.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (506) | Send Message
     
    Thanks everyone for the civilized response to my RoseWater note. I just answered a question that was likely brought on by that note. However, don't expect much more from me on this issue because I don't know that much and have shared what I am at liberty to share. Hopefully others can contribute more pieces that will help everyone put together a more comprehensive picture.
    17 Jun 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (653) | Send Message
     
    Never even knew what a "concentrator" was until this morning, but I've been looking for you guys for a year anyway. I just didn't know I was. Anyway, I've been catching up a little bit and have enuff confidence to offer the following observations.

     

    1) Axion ain't in a sexy business. We don't appeal to many folks.

     

    2) I shopped at Home Depot before it went public and they had only two stores in Atlanta. They were a mess with their experiments. Do you know they used to sell white wood unfinished furniture? But when they figured it out...... Three hundred bagger as I recall. Wanna explain the sex appeal in boards & nails? Garbage isn't sexy. Neither are leaky oil tanks. Look at a LTchart of Stericycle or Clean Harbors.

     

    3) I've nibbled at Axion for two years now. It only seems like forever because my dreams haven't been realized. Pretty discouraging stuff this.

     

    4) I know buckets and buckets and buckets about how NS research works. It is very very slow. First, there's the "Oh, bleep ! We-didn't-expect-that-... It'll-take-weeks-for-u... delay. Things simply do not progress in a straight line, nor do they accelerate quickly out the gate. Then there's the fact that they despise mistakes. More delay. Then there's the fact that they may also be exploring CNG or LNG alternative engines. But when/if they move they move very powerfully. I have no idea where NS999 is in progress. For all I know it has been mothballed. However I also know that it may be operating at night. Or on Sunday. Or on holidays. We will not know where NS is on this project until they want us to know where they are on this project. And yes, OTR engine demands are different than switcher demands. FWIW, two points: a) Wick Moorman is a Georgia Tech engineer and got his MBA at Hahvahd. He is a progressive and does not suffer fools gladly. b) NS does not waste money on ideas they know are silly.

     

    5) I live out in the country of the Shenandoah Valley. We must have backup power. One of our neighbors is wealthy and is researching HUB technology and price is no object. He has rejected Rosewater because he doesn't want LI anywhere near his house. I'm not sayin'..... I'm just sayin.... I hope Rosewater thrives. Maybe they can break the ice for us. But they are not the be-all & end-all.

     

    6) We have no idea whatsoever when/if we will catch the wave with Axion. Visions of sugar-plums dance in my head, but I am at best hopefully optimistic. If this were a no-brainer I could not afford the stock. But if this does (as I expect) take off like a rocket it will not be a one-issue event. In fact the most likely rocket fuel will be a serendipity we haven't even considered.

     

    7) Axion management ain't stupid. They are in fact very very clever competent people. Do they make mistakes? Yep. Do they annoy us? You bet. That's because they are lousy ballroom dancers. I expect their charm index is pathetic. But I'm not interested in charm. I want science and hard business decisions. So far they seem to be doing very well. Well enuff ? We'll know soon I should think. How soon is "soon"? Who knows. But if I want certainty then this outfit was the wrong fish for me to bring to the clam-bake.

     

    8) I believe we are in a massive global sea-change. I have never in my life seen such an amazing shift in energy concentration from one hemisphere to another and all in a breath-taking short space of time. I am convinced the USA is about to become an energy super power. LNG,CNG,fracking, fluid technology, pipeline and valve control systems are guaranteed participants. I believe SS technology and hybrid technology will be another piece of the puzzle. And I am betting Axion will be a winner. And yes, I'm averaging down. I envy many of the quantities of buy/sell shares you guys mention in your transactions. I regret that I do not have more bullets in my gun.

     

    It seems to me there's a lot of discouragement on this board. I hate that the price is falling, but I'm making as much lemonade as I can afford to make. I like my odds of one day selling the stuff at stellar prices. Meanwhile call me crazy, but I can understand every setback we've had. My guess/bet is that when the Fat Lady sings the Longs will be very happy.
    17 Jun 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (852) | Send Message
     
    Hey Valleywood,

     

    Welcome to the Concentrator, AND, thanks for your post. Yes, there has been discouragement on the board, so your insightful and optimistic [but realistic] perspectives are very much appreciated.
    18 Jun 2013, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood,
    Thanks for providing a fresh perspective.
    18 Jun 2013, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood: Welcome and I hope we here can offer something optimistic in return ... someday! :-((

     

    I think we're like the battle-weary soldiers here ATM and your post sure is refreshing ... even if I don't buy into a word of it! ;))

     

    That's a joke sir!

     

    Good to have you aboard.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood: BTW, I see you are relatively new to SA? If so, you may want to "follow" APH and in any concentrator that you've not commented, check the "Track new comments on this article" box just ahead of the first comment to get notified of new activity.

     

    Be aware that SA's software doesn't always flag *all* the new comments when you come in to view in response to a notification.

     

    As the concentrators get "full up", making loading slow for some, a new one is made and APH will stick a comment near the end with a link to a "virgin" concentrator.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    Another thing you might want to consider is a brief biographical sketch to help give others a sense of what you've done and where your perspective comes from. I agree that it's refreshing to have a new voice that isn't quite as battle weary.
    18 Jun 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Bosch-a-rama. Future world. New chairman coming in July for them.

     

    Bosch sees future requiring multiple powertrain technologies; the larger the vehicle, the more the electrification

     

    http://bit.ly/ZZVz9t
    18 Jun 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "Therefore, Bohr said, Bosch aims to develop lithium-ion batteries that will at least double the range of current electric vehicles and at half the cost per kilowatt-hour. “This is the best possible way to promote the purchase of electric vehicles.”

     

    I guess he's not on-board with JP's oft-posted concerns about raw materials usage? Or maybe there's a chemistry that doesn't face the potential issues of increased mining required or diversion from other beneficial uses?

     

    Add in the ageing and decrepit grid infrastructure.
    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I've been in meetings where advanced engineering presents where they see the market going 10+ years out. Much is possible but it doesn't assure that it's going to happen. Pay closer attention to the near term stuff in their statements. That's pretty much built in.
    18 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1828) | Send Message
     
    "most of the cars on the world’s roads are still running on diesel and gasoline, and things will stay that way for the rest of the decade".

     

    You mean like the above kind of quote, ii?

     

    I think when the common man hears the word 'electrification' in regards to autos he thinks of a BEV. But the industry insiders mean various forms of hybridization and use of the battery along with internal combustion.

     

    D
    18 Jun 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    D. McHattie, Right! Electrification for most vehicles will mean removing their current method of being powered from the engine. This eliminates all the wasted energy that is driving these devices at some level even though they are not used 100% of the time. By powering them via electric motors they become on demand devices and can therefore not only be powered only when called upon but also they can be prioritized.

     

    I've commented before that the vehicle is becoming a smart grid. Just like what Viridity and others are doing with their grid software, you can optimize which devices are powered based on need and you can use "Negawatts" when it makes sense.

     

    Light electrification is a great thing. Right now you have to provide an energy system that assumes worst case everything is on. If you can set priorities and reduce consumption through efficiency you can "right size" everything and reduce the size considerably vs what you'd have to do to support light electrification if the system were dumb.

     

    I'm sorry but you have to get excited about this stuff. But it does require a significantly more robust power buss that has far more demands being placed on it. Once you start moving safety related devices like steering and braking to electromechanical power you most likely need redundancy in your electric buss. Plus they will most likely have mechanical redundancy in some form for a period.

     

    Better batteries anyone?
    18 Jun 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano1401
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    There are many Lithium batteries under development that do not incorporate rare earth materials ( e.g. http://bit.ly/1au5Cb4 ) and lithium is not rare, just not worth mining at current prices in locations in western U.S. and other areas. Yes it takes a while to develop a mine, but it will take a while to utilize existing mines so the industry will just evolve naturally. Overall, lithium will grow as an industry, not decline. Sakti3 is also rolling out a newly designed cheaper, safer and longer lasting lithium battery late this year, if reports are true. But Sakti3 has been circumspect on their chemistry so I have no knowledge if theirs is free of rare earth minerals. (fyi - sakti is sanskrit for power and 3 is the periodic number for lithium).
    19 Jun 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4715) | Send Message
     
    7:35 AM Hydrogenics (HYGS) says it will install three of its HySTAT-60 electrolyzers at a fueling station in Bolzano, Italy as part of a new contract with The Linde Group. (PR) [Energy] Comment!
    18 Jun 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • steeleydock
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    "If this were a no-brainer I could not afford the stock."
    Very funny.
    S
    18 Jun 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (653) | Send Message
     
    HTL & JP, thanks for the heads-up. I've inserted bio stuff we'll hope it stays saved this time. :>) For purposes of this discussion (Axion) I need to be a bit cautious.

     

    I was a financial analyst/cost guy in the Engineering Department for NS in Atlanta after graduating from business school. NS (then Southern Railway) payed for me to go to school at Georgia Tech & Georgia State for science & technology in night school. FWIW, I believe NS still pays tuition/books for employees to attend school if studying what they consider "real" courses. That was/is a real perk. Stayed with them to retirement. Worked with Wick Moorman on a few projects and ultimately for him. I am very familiar with how NS approaches engineering applications. Moorman and I were not/are not best pals or even drinking buddies. He was always looking higher than I was. I have not talked to or written to him in several years (six maybe) and would not under any circumstances contact him about anything personal or professional.

     

    I am a Peter Lynch investor in that I invest only in what I know (or as my wife would say, what I THINK I know). Given that narrow & shallow horizon I was enthusiastic about Axion and remain so.

     

    I paid for two years of one son's college with Home Depot and two years of the other son's college with Intuitive Surgical. Have also been crushed many times (how many new fishing boats have I never bought because I lost the money ???) on ideas that did not pan out. None of this is a virgin experience. Here goes however.....

     

    Electrical engineering is not my thing. I don't really understand batteries. But I do understand that what Axion is sitting on is huge. It is a monstrous leap leap forward and whatever happens to the company, the technology is going to fly. It is as inevitable and as certain as a rock falling from your hand. I have watched with great interest (and amusement sometimes) John shine the flashlight on the dark matter of batteries. They are so mundane no one cares and sometimes it seems no one understands. What Axion has is not a "new" technology. It has "better" technology. It has taken a widely variable and unpredictable power source and significantly improved its precision (predictable, dependable and in numerous iterations) in electrical charge, discharge, and balance. So far, no one else can do this as well. Not even a close horse race here. This is great stuff ! Forget lithium. There is not enuff on earth to do what we need to do, and if there were nobody could afford it for goodness sake.

     

    A wandering man settled on some property with a spring. Every day he would go out, cup his hands, and take a drink. Then one day a gal wandered by and spied him drinking from his spring.
    "Look here", she said, "This is called a cup. Try it. You'll like it." And so the man used the cup and said, "WOW ! This is really great. I can drink faster, smoother, and a whole lot more all at once. Plus I can walk to the holler, kill a rabbit, and take a drink while I'm hunting. Same spring. Same water. But this is clearly better !"

     

    Well, you've probably guessed the end of the story. The hermit married the gal, became a tinsmith, made lots of money selling cups and water, and had many children who also became rich.

     

    Is Axion capable of selling the cup? Absolutely. Do they have enuff time to master the art before going belly up? Dunno. Men are being led to the water, but will they drink? Mebe. But are they thirsty? Of course !

     

    I love reading the banter. I am fascinated by the insights I have found here. How y'all find the information of the most technical nature of the stock itself is amazing to me. I am mesmerized by the slightest bit of data you find and analyze about the SP movement. But I believe that ultimately this is a fundamental game with an end so certain I can go to bed and read the score the next day. The only mystery is who will be listed in the box score.

     

    We have only one genuine concern: Does Axion have sufficient funds and time to sell the first few cups. Only time will tell, but the few shares I have and those I'm adding are totally committed to this team. We either will or won't be successful. Sometimes you just have to go for it.
    18 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Great to have another obvious raconteur of the first rank with us!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2673) | Send Message
     
    Yup. What came first? Race horses or race tracks? Or was it promoters and barkers?
    18 Jun 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29660) | Send Message
     
    It's even more fun to have a raconteur who understands the way a key customer thinks and acts. Companies develop cultures over time and those cultures change very slowly without intense pressure. The same is true for people who thrive in a particular culture and advance to positions of high authority. I've often said that my biggest advantage with Axion comes from spending several years immersed in the people and the culture because that gives me insight into how they're developing relationships and their business. It sounds like Valleywood has the same experience and insights into the NS culture. I'm thrilled to have him on board the Axionista choo choo.
    18 Jun 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Slow day ... "Axionista choo choo"

     

    Sometimes it feels more like the "Axionista ah-choo".

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Posted only for the statement below since it's relevant to our situation. When I worked for ITT we used to say it stands for "It Takes Time".

     

    Volkswagen and Valeo Earn a 2013 Automotive News PACE Innovation Partnership Award for the Water Charged Air Cooled Air Intake Module

     

    "“A strong, collaborative partnership between the OEM customer and the Supplier is essential to bringing game-changing innovations to market,” said Valeo Powertrain Thermal Systems Research and Development and Marketing Director Georges De Pelsemaeker. “It is an honor to receive this award. It helps recognize almost a decade of charged air cooling and engine cooling development activities with our valued customer.”"

     

    http://bit.ly/10tZvBx;jsessionid=4AE648D43D...

     

    Edit Let's see if this link works.

     

    http://yhoo.it/16EKLiN
    18 Jun 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17446) | Send Message
     
    Second link worked fine Iindelco!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Batteries pose tough transport challenges

     

    http://bit.ly/11vZdp5
    18 Jun 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    Coming in the 2016 my. :)

     

    Stop Start Automotive Technology for Hybrid Vehicles

     

    "The UK-based low carbon vehicle specialist, Controlled Power Technologies (CPT), has completed more than two years of continuous testing to validate its SpeedStart® belt-integrated starter-generator for 1.2 million stop-starts, which is considered the new industry standard that will be required for a new generation of micro-mild hybrid vehicles."

     

    "“A stop-start system has to be specified for near-future requirements including extending vehicle life and increasingly demanding hybridisation strategies, and a typical modern car moreover can easily last 250,000 miles over 15 years,” says CPT hybrid product group manager Peter Scanes. “More critically, fuel economy targets require reduced stop-inhibits, not just stopping the engine when the driver places the transmission in neutral. Latest implementations allow frequent stop-start events in crawling traffic and future coast-down strategies. Switching off the engine, but preparing for immediate re-starts if the driver demands acceleration, will further increase the frequency of stop-starts. We needed therefore to demonstrate as convincingly as possible the near-zero probability of failure during the lifespan of a vehicle as well as the ability to achieve the maximum number of re-starts, because one of the most cost effective solutions for low fuel consumption is simply stopping the engine at every single opportunity – even if it’s only for a few seconds every stop counts.”"

     

    "The availability of this production ready technology is expected to appear in a new generation of micro-mild hybrid vehicles reaching dealer showrooms from 2015 onwards."

     

    http://bit.ly/11w0YCH
    18 Jun 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Milhouse
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    "Despite the frequency at which the engine was continuously stopped followed by immediate re-starts, and with a regularity which the average motorist is unlikely to experience even in the most heavily congested urban traffic, the SpeedStart units still had sufficient time to generate more than three times the amount of electrical energy required to restart the engine following each stop event."

     

    Sounds like the next step is to find a battery which will efficiently receive and store all that electrical energy.
    I wonder which OEM(s) have been testing these units?
    18 Jun 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (885) | Send Message
     
    ii:
    interesting article. 1.2M stop/starts translates to 328 cycles per day over a 10-year vehicle life. That should do it!

     

    Sad that the word "battery" does not appear once in the article since battery limitations are the biggest obstacle to widespread adoption of this technology. We should all start commenting on articles like this as a way to spread the word.
    18 Jun 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4452) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... Batteries won't do the trick for S/S. What you want is capacitance, large amounts of it, with a little iddy-biddy bit of storage in reserve. Sadly there isn't a device in the market place to serve such a function that anyone has ever heard of ... so for now, I guess the word battery will just have to do.
    18 Jun 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8960) | Send Message
     
    NGS, Batteries are not the focus of the article. But as it indicates and we all recognize, DRich's emphasis, this is not going to fly with AGM if they want to start energy harvesting as heavily as mentioned. This system wants a big ole capacitor for sure. Oh, And while capacitors might need a dc/dc converter, at least you can tell how much charge they are holding. That's critical.

     

    Now where can they find a big ole capacitive device that's already got large manufacturing capacity mostly in place. And never forget that the autos are very price sensitive.
    18 Jun 2013, 02:48 PM Reply