Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
  • Axion Power Concentrator 245: June 19: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 318 comments
    Jun 19, 2013 4:47 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

    Excerpts from the First Quarter 10-Q --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits - long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization - create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    --------------------------------------------------------------------Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 06/17/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 6/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (318)
Track new comments
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    #?
    19 Jun 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Due!!!!
    19 Jun 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1644) | Send Message
     
    6 minutes
    19 Jun 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    Miss Congeniality again :-(
    19 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    must be worm left around here somewhere
    19 Jun 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13490) | Send Message
     
    Added some shares today...

     

    I smell opportunity comin'.
    19 Jun 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    dadgum triple !

     

    You probably cost me $6 today. I had to boost my limit some to ensure execution in the last two minutes of today's trading. Thanks a bunch. :>)

     

    I too am smelling the aroma of bacon & coffee.

     

    will nibble a bit tomorrow also.
    19 Jun 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2623) | Send Message
     
    Checked the Axion website again and the Marcum presentation from May 23, 2013, still isn't up yet.

     

    Oddly enough, the website has been updated with the June 11, 2013, Fleets & Fuels - ePower article.

     

    19 Jun 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2127) | Send Message
     
    "oddly enough",

     

    Yes I think the PR company is having a very hard time satisfying an actual interested band of shareholders. I am sure the presentation was as boring as the CC. But that does not excuse the investor relations division from doing their job.

     

    I expect one of two things to happen soon. The Axionistas will start to speak with one voice as to asking for information ( ie. many simultaneous e-mails) or Axionistas will quit supporting the company. I have no issue with the Investor relations dept. at this moment. In fact I had a quick resolution to my issue. But I sense some resistance from them as to posting current information we are asking them to post. Whats up with that?
    19 Jun 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... " investor relations division" ... now that is funny. We are talking about Axion here ... right? This "division" is probably one little old lady that volunteered to do this part time in between the 3 other jobs.
    19 Jun 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I also got a kick out of "investor relations division", a humorous oxymoron in my book. Do you suppose that little old lady comes in more than once or twice a month? :-)
    19 Jun 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    I enjoy these postings. I view this as a fire and forget investment. I like the technology, and the fact the company is playing with an auto giant, a rail giant, a trucking firm, and the tech appears to have potential in both industrial and home settings.
    Sometimes, I think you just have to appreciate the overall picture, and not count the blades of grass. It might not work out, but if my micro cap is gonna have some playmates, these are the playmates I would choose. Relationships strengthen and weaken, but AXPW has had some important guests in its little sandbox.
    19 Jun 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    rhyse,

     

    Amen.

     

    Is there pee-poor-performance here in the waltzing competition? Yep.

     

    But my stars our guys sure have the interest of some superstars.

     

    Rumor has it that Tom Brady can't sing worth a bleep. I hear he throws a FB pretty well however.
    19 Jun 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    06/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 22500, Vol 295911, AvTrSz: 4417
    Min. Pr: 0.1900, Max Pr: 0.1999, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1961
    # Buys, Shares: 10 57425, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1991
    # Sells, Shares: 56 235986, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1954
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 2500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1965
    Buy:Sell 1:4.11 (19.4% “buys”), DlyShts 43900 (14.84%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.60%
    06/19: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2242, in 40 days: $0.1906

     

    Daily short sales percentage was a bit lower than recently. I attribute this to ATDF being top of the ask four times out of ten peeks at the ask since we know that when ATDF dominated the offers stack in the past, for an extended period, we had extremely low daily short sales percentages. They were showing asks in second place two additional times. This implies that ATDF-related “sells”, hitting the bids, were likely also higher, accounting for the much lower than normal “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”. This leads me to gain stronger confidence that ATDF does hold small short-term long positions as well because otherwise their “sells” would increase the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”. ARCA and BTIG were atop the offers stack seven times (sometimes co-located with ATDF).

     

    Around 14:15, I saw CDEL with a bid of $0.198x97K, but it wasn't top of the heap. But by 14:19 it was spending some time up there. The VWAP from 14:19 on was $0.1983 vs the $0.1948 in the 39 trades prior to that time. That's the upside. The downside is it stirred the sellers' hornets nest as they decided this was a great price and hit the bids hard – 83.35% of the volume were sells, vs. 77.41 percent prior to that.

     

    That tells us something about the sentiment of the sellers, no?

     

    A small, and maybe inconsequential, piece of good news was that the folks making offers, rather than just hitting the bids from the sell side, were more disciplined about their price even with ATDF, the “me first” MM, being near the top a lot of the time. The increases and decreases in the asks were evenly split during the times I took a look. If the folks willing to hit the bid willy-nilly are near exhaustion, which we don't know, we might have a chance to hold, or even increase, VWAP for a day or two.

     

    That won't do anything for the next share-issue price though.

     

    On the bid side there were eight increases and only three decreases out of thirteen peeks. So we did have some bullish folks since increases can't come due to “uncovering” a better bid – these were folks willing to up the bid.

     

    Regardless, VWAP continues to deteriorate, albeit very slowly: $0.1949, $0.2122, $0.1999, $0.1963 and $0.1961 today.

     

    My original experimental inflection points have four periods showing increasing weakening and to with lessening weakening on the one-day changes – I'm reading them essentially flat. The five-day change has five showing reducing weakness and the average rate of change over five days has all six showing reducing rate weakening. We are not at the state where I would hazard that we are near seeing a trend of improvement though.

     

    My newer version is a bit less optimistic with only two periods having one-day changes showing less weakening. The five-day changes have three suggesting reducing weakness and the average change rate over the five days has only one period suggesting such. ATM, no indications of a trend up are present.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Another infrequently-seen MM joins the fray today: BNCH on both sides.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I love (irony intended) to read your technical stuff. You know more about that stuff than I have the strength to learn. Your insight helps me hone my bids (not a seller here)

     

    Simply put, you must remain at home and not leave your room.

     

    Just keep publishing.

     

    Love,
    V

     

    p.s. you may not go on vacation leaving your stuff unpublished unless I also leave the Valley for yonder spaces. you must request permission before vacationizing.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4885) | Send Message
     
    8:29 AM Ryder (R) says it took delivery of 39 light and medium duty compressed vehicles with natural gas engines. The development only marks a small step forward for taking natural gas engines into the mainstream, but could bode well for Westport Innovations (WPRT), Cummins (CMI), and Navistar (NAV) if more commercial operations dabble with CNG-powered vehicles. [Consumer] 1 Comment
    20 Jun 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    Let's Ask John Peterson

     

    We're incredibly lucky here. John has probably forgotten more about Axion than we will ever know collectively. His perspective is also so deep that even should he explain in a fifty-page document the general range of his knowledge we simply would not understand. Also keep in mind that he has been a holder probably longer than any of us --- with its associated frustration. His equity position may well dwarf all of ours and at a higher price than currently quoted. And finally, remember that John is standing in a position enchained with prudent judgement regarding his unique history with Axion. Even in "private" correspondence/convers... he must have knit into his conscience the regard for cautious judgement. He can ill afford to poison the well.

     

    Nevertheless, from my observation on the "big" SA board, John has been remarkably forthcoming and for me at least delightfully educative. We might cajole him into a strong opinion, yes? Now that I've offered my perspective in private where he cannot see what I've said :>) I'll go ahead and pose my question to him publicly.

     

    JP,

     

    It seems to me that every stumble Axion has made in the last 18 months or so can be reasonably explained away depending on perspective. Particularly in view of the stature of the players in our "little sandbox" (props: rhyse ! ) I have to think that at least technically we are progressing very well. On the other hand, from the collective view of many on this board perfectly reasonable jaundice has developed over seemingly pathetic communication from Axion to us. That is particularly annoying to me and I hate such opaque swirl coming from HQ. In government I expect that, but I hold politicians in contempt. I expect better from corporate leadership.

     

    OTOH, I can visualize many reasons why corporate communications becomes cloudy or even becomes iced in:

     

    1) "We are so close to the goal line we cannot jeopardize our delicate negotiations. They'll forget their anger if we carry the day"

     

    2) A complete error of judgement.

     

    3) Exhaustion dealing with current close-to-fruition entanglements

     

    4) Husbanding cash so tightly that money is not available to update websites.

     

    5) "The Big Boyz are interested in only one thing. I must concentrate totally and completely on satisfying them."

     

    6) "Axionistas are not going to dump now. It would be self destructive of them to do so."

     

    7) "The sharks are circling. If we want to survive we must focus all energy on closing this loop with our prospective customers. Anything else will be viewed by our customers as instability. "

     

    8) "Bleep 'em. We are not required to communicate everything so why should we?"

     

    9) Arrogance. ( I don't even want to consider this one. . . . . )

     

    I can imagine a myriad of reasons why we have what we have here. Meanwhile however we also have Axionistas growing restless at the campfires sans information. But I suspect you can offer something much more credible than my speculations if you feel comfortable doing so. Without compromising your prudence would you care to put your finger on an issue here? And if so, should we worry? I understand anger and annoyance, but are these symptoms of poor communication grounded in something alarmingly fundamental and worth fretting over? Or are we simply bathing in the symptoms of having very weak candles in the oppressive dark that exists just before stumbling into blinding light? Are you dumping?

     

    I now return you to my regularly scheduled programming of drinking hopeful Kool-Aid. And averaging down. :>)
    20 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1075) | Send Message
     
    GD, i am not restless. i have several catalysts i am looking to and that is all.
    20 Jun 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    Axion has the most difficult PR dynamic I've ever encountered because the PbC is a completely new technology and current applications were not designed to take advantage of its strengths. In fact, current applications scrupulously avoided the PbC's sweet spot because other battery technologies couldn't stand the strain.

     

    That means market demand has to come from OEMs and first tier users who want extraordinary battery performance and are willing to accept the risk of adopting and implementing new technology.

     

    From the automaker's perspective the PbC's extraordinary DCA opens up all kinds of engineering possibilities, but the one place they can't afford to take a risk is the $400 component that controls whether their $40,000 system starts when the owner turns his key.

     

    The same is true for NS. They took a high-profile beat down in the fall of 2009 when they launched the NS 999 with thunderous fanfare and then melted the batteries within a few weeks. In my efforts to get an interview with Theilen, it was clear that he didn't want to talk to anybody about their second effort until he was certain that the effort would be successful. Frankly I've been amazed at the three-year double redundant testing that NS has done in their house, in Axion's house and at Penn State. You expect that level of precision and care in aviation, but it's very rare in basic industry.

     

    In my view the biggest impediments to effective communication include:

     

    1. first-tier customers that don't want a micro-cap trading on their name or discussing their confidential projects;
    2. testing and validation cycles that resemble sex with a gorilla where you're not done till they say you're done and the best news is usually "well we haven't been killed yet;"
    3. a complicated technical story that doesn't comport with common knowledge and urban legend;
    4. knowledge that expectations are easier to create than they are to satisfy in a business where the customer is calling the shots;
    5. the inherent difficulty of developing a totally new technology and then inventing totally new manufacturing methods to make the darned thing; and
    6. a fiscal conservatism that precludes spending lots of time and money on roadshows where you can't show much more than shadow puppets.

     

    Some time back I had a phone call with Tom Granville where I told him their shareholder communications sucked but I wasn't sure that I could do any better given the nature of Axion's business and its customer base. I'd like to see Axion more proactive when it comes to tasty delicacies like website maintenance, white paper publication and access to presentation materials, but I also understand that those things won't do much for stockholders who are hungry for red meat.

     

    I've spent my entire career working with micro-caps that are trying to do business with the big boys and find it extraordinary that both BMW and NS have consented to public disclosure of the development relationships. When I start adding the names of companies that haven't been disclosed but are known with a reasonable level of confidence, I'm dumbfounded that the giants in several industries are hanging out with a battery industry dwarf.

     

    There are times when I envy the Elon Musk's of the world who can manufacture news whenever they want. It's far easier than being in a position where the only thing you can say is we're still banging away at the gorilla.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that. What you say resonates and is an echo of my suspicions.

     

    Have no clue as to other companies but I do know NS. I have no idea whatsoever whether we can land that or not. I do know that they are a cranky bunch and the fact they continue to evaluate tells me they consider the product a possible gold standard. Whether they can use it or not is a tidal judgement but they throw anchors overboard very quickly. I'm thrilled we're still in the boat.

     

    Still nibbling.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    NS went beyond evaluation when they bought a full set of batteries to get the NS 999 back on the rails. The batteries were delivered in December and the locomotive has been in the shop for several months now. People are incredibly impatient waiting for it to see the light of day, but it certainly seems that NS has gone a step or two beyond the tire kicking phase.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Do you have a feel for this new VP of Research and Advanced Technology, Tom W. Schnautz? Previously, Mr. Thelen, a hardware centric guy, was the champion of battery electric locomotives by exploring both the Green Goat & BP4 and I just can't figure out if Mr. Schnautz is interested in evaluating the NS999 project before moving on or burying it. I know he is an EE and very interested in LEADER & UTCS, but I just can't figure if he's a kind of exclusionary actor. Pushing his predecessor's projects that aren't currently critical out until his interests are completed.

     

    http://bit.ly/195SMBC

     

    Any thoughts that wouldn't jeopardize your pension you could share?
    20 Jun 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2739) | Send Message
     
    JP - well said, throughout. And finally, yes, the gorilla (musk, tier 1 etc) can do whatever the gorilla wants (win or lose, profitable or not, etc.); but for those dependent upon the gorilla (AXPW), not so much. In fact beware of the gorilla droppings; plus be able to dance when dance is called for, etc., like, if you want to eat well, don't tick off the cook.

     

    Many of the comments herein over many moons remind me of failure to distinguish between dependent and independent variables; it's like some have not learned that pushing a rope could be the inappropriate action, as well as the many other things it could be called (examples of the same as far removed as their heads are where the sun does not shine).

     

    But hey, free speech, but beware of the axionmaster comment chopper.
    20 Jun 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (812) | Send Message
     
    2. testing and validation cycles that resemble sex with a gorilla where you're not done till they say you're done and the best news is usually "well we haven't been killed yet;"
    -- not killed is something
    -- Gorilla's being jealous could be an issue too
    20 Jun 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    I have no sense of Messrs. Schnautz or Thelen. They both are from what is called the Mechanical Department. The Mechanical Department is locomotives & rolling stock. I worked in Engineering. That's the right-of-way, bridges, structures, buildings, & rail. I have not had a relationship with either of these men.

     

    The momentum for this project comes from much higher. The federal government has mandated that railroads WILL reduce emissions. Railroads are working hard at that. Axion is a player in that quest for NS. Other than that I know nothing.

     

    I do not fear losing my pension. There is no threat there. However I have signed limited non compete agreements, an NDA, and frankly I have given my word to people I respect to protect Norfolk Southern and further to polish the shield. I was a very small fish in a very big pond, but because of my job was required to be exposed to things that could be sensitive. I still admire NS and still protect it from anything that could be interpreted as misconduct.

     

    If you think this is frustrating, think about this: My wife worked thirty years for Alston & Bird one of the Seven Sisters. Alston & Bird was Chief Counsel for CSX. You might imagine the documents I had to sign for that little arrangement. My wife and I came to an agreement that we would never discuss our work with each other. Ever. We still do not talk about railroads in any way.

     

    I left NS in 2003; that's ten years ago. What I "know" about NS operations is obsolete. What I know of NS is still valid. It is a deliberate and cautious company that moves decisively when it moves. It does not operate in joint ventures of discovery with anything it does not see as the gold standard. From my perspective NS regards Axion very highly. That is really all I need to make decisions.

     

    I own a bit of Axion. I am trying to buy more today.

     

    V
    20 Jun 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I'm just a railroad enthusiast. Have been since I was a kid when my mother let me "play" with her father's friend that had set up a prototypical B&O Baltimore-Wilmington Sector. He was the VP for operations and had about the coolest model layout I've ever seen. I came to Axion as a shareholder in 2007 but had been following the technology since the early 1990's because of rail applications.

     

    I can't think that buying more Axion stock would present a challenge on any given day, as long as you're prepared & know it will be worth less tomorrow. I hear that things can/will change and I know that battery power on the rails will someday be important. I'm betting that the 4th time will be the charm and this is the battery the rails have been looking for over the past century.

     

    Thanks
    20 Jun 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    WTB,
    I've been away from the board quite a bit lately (doing that work thing). Have you gotten any updates on the status of NS999 from the guy who runs the Altoona Facebook page? Just wondering if we've heard anything lately?

     

    Thanks.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    1. I have not actually identified who my Altoona contact is.

     

    2. BTW, there are several people that administer the Altoonaworks Facebook page.

     

    3. I've been monitoring the page, and there's nothing new to report. I have no doubt that if NS-999 appears outside, we'll see a picture or pictures quite soon thereafter. There are a fair number of rail-fans (photographers and videographers) that participate on a Yahoo private board that I monitor. They include some that listen to audio and watch video feeds such that it's unlikely in my opinion that they could sneak NS-999 out of town without being noticed.

     

    This is not to say they couldn't sneak the batteries (and racks?) out to say Roanoke, but they would need to order more batteries to make the OTR unit (instead), which I suppose they could demand secrecy on if they really wanted to. Seems kinda far-fetched though.

     

    I don't have a handle on how much the expertise at Altoona would be required. Roanoke is definitely a smaller facility, but they do perform some rebuilds there.

     

    4. Given TG calling NS-999's appearance a "summer event," and our history, I didn't actually email my contact at the start of June. Feel like I've too close to wearing out my welcome given how long this story has taken to unfold with nothing of note happening. Old enough that the "watched kettle never boils" phrase keeps running through my head, though I missed this version:

     

    Fractal Time: Why a Watched Kettle Never Boils (Studies of Nonlinear Phenomena in Life Science) [Hardcover]

     

    http://amzn.to/148uDn2
    20 Jun 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    WTB,

     

    Sorry for the confusion. Thanks for the update.
    20 Jun 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... If you're just hungry for NS999 news, here is a nose shot from the Altoona Works website. In the section labeled Miscellaneous, Page 10, May 2013.

     

    http://bit.ly/14NbCJq

     

    http://bit.ly/1066SwE

     

    Just 60 feet from being the sunlight. Best I can tell it hasn't moved for 2 months.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Wtb: I Some good stuff here

     

    http://amzn.to/15pE5ll

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2013, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    " as long as you're prepared & know it will be worth less tomorrow."

     

    Priceless. The best post I've seen on the board !
    21 Jun 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    (AXPW): We have CDEL and ATDF w/larger than normal orders on the bid again today. At the open, AFAICT, CDEL $0.198x70K and ATDF has their 40K again at $0.195. ATDF two days in a row like this is quite unusual - they usually do 10K.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    and here I've trimmed my offer !!!!!

     

    :>)
    20 Jun 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano1401
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking back to the Exide fiasco, when Axion and Exide jointly applied for and then received $35MM for research from the Feds, only to see the money stay with Exide and never go to Axion. We as a group have savaged Exide for this, but why was our management so incompetent that they could not write a contract that was binding on all parties, or perhaps why could they not forge a working relationship with Exide after receipt of the funds (an alternative scenario)? Then we have the failure with Rosewater, a group with sympathetic management who are large stakeholders in Axion, and yet they are now so disgusted they have removed any mention of Axion from their website.

     

    As I recall the last CC, BMW was not mentioned by TG during his state of the company musings. He mentioned them only in response to a direct question (correct me if I am wrong on this). This makes me wonder if the relationship with BMW is frayed or weakening as well. I have no real knowledge here, only a gut response to the failure of TG to mention it himself in light of the way other past "strong" relationships gradually fizzled and then were no longer mentioned in the CC.

     

    I know that JP knows Tom and thinks highly of him. I do not know Tom personally so I can only speculate based upon performance. To me, his performance does not impress. Were I to walk a mile in his shoes I might change my tune, so I am not claiming to know definitively that we have poor management, I am only looking at the past performance and drawing conclusions as I see them. Like others I look for greater transparency, better communications and far better performance from management than we have seen to date. If the battery is as good as claimed, why is it so damn hard to sell? Why is East Penn forging ahead with UltraBattery when they have the spec's on the PbC and a relationship with Axion? There may be good reasons, but I would like management to explain and clarify why a current customer for the Axion flooded battery line does not seem interested in the PbC but does push the UltraBattery. There may be many good reasons, but management should explain them, we should not be left speculating in the dark.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    The DOE grant to Exide with Axion Power was a monumental error by government employees who blithely assumed that two public companies could simply play nice and share their toys. What they didn't understand was that Exide couldn't legally share with Axion without extracting another pound of flesh and Axion wouldn't to sell its heart and soul to Exide in exchange for money that Exide would never have gotten without Axion's technology.

     

    There are two sides to every divorce and I know both sides of the Axion - Rosewater divorce well enough to know that assigning blame to either party is silly. Sometimes things just don't work out the way you hope they will and a wise man leaves it at that.

     

    The Form 10-Q specifically says "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a “sole source” issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy (“to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry”), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well." Unless you know of another automaker that's been testing the PbC for years there's no challenge in reading between those lines.

     

    I've walked several miles on the path Tom has to follow and while I believe Axion's PR sucks, there is nothing in Tom's performance that I find troubling. I certainly don't think I could do a better job. East Penn is commercializing the Ultrabattery in one form factor, a 2,000 amp-hour 2-volt cell for renewable smoothing and time shift. They have no plans to branch off into other markets and as near as I can tell after spending some time with East Penn's Chairwoman, their relationship with Axion is as strong as it's ever been. The NDAs between Axion and East Penn are just like all the others and the only way Axion could have the kind of frank discussion you'd like to hear is with East Penn's consent. It's not going to happen.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    Rick, not saying you're all wet here. Not at all. I also am puzzled as to management performance. I will however offer two anecdotes.

     

    1) I have lost a TON of money on Exide. I recently threw away three consecutive annual reports claiming " well now we've cleaned up all of our toxic sites, our plants are humming, and our reorganization is complete", (or WTTE). What a blundering episode that was in my investment experience. And they have/had a moat with a significant income stream.

     

    2) I think the Ultra is a different horse. It does a different job. JP, am I right?

     

    Jimmy Johnson took a dreadful Cowboy team and built them up to go to two consecutive Super Bowls. The owner, Jerry Jones, decided he didn't like Jimmy and fired him, subsequently hiring Barry Switzer. Switzer took Jimmy Johnson's team to another SB and then destroyed it. You haven't heard from Dallas since. All because the owner loves to meddle.

     

    It's always easiest to fire the head guy. Sometimes though things are overwhelmingly complicated and the removal of the head guy can bring long term destruction. So which do we want? The devil we know? Or the devil behind door #2 ?

     

    Not sayin. Just sayin.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    AES to provide energy storage facility for PJM market in Ohio
    06/18/2013

     

    http://bit.ly/1awHVyI

     

    "plans to bring an additional 40 MW of energy storage resources to PJM Interconnection

     

    ... expected to occur in September 2013, it will bring the company’s storage resources in PJM to more than 100 MW, all operating on AES’ patented control system, sOS.

     

    ... The 40 MW storage resource will consist of 24 MW from AES inventory with the remaining 16 MW coming from an existing AES facility, which the company is relocating to Ohio"
    20 Jun 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    "... with the remaining 16 MW coming from an existing AES facility, which the company is relocating to Ohio" "

     

    A market still looking for a way to get paid. May end up easier for them here than in Russia.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    The fact that some storage "designs" can be "portable" is actually a good reminder. So many different "jurisdictions" to deal with (and, um, "invest" in) ... rules change and it's a small consolation to know that, if you think ahead, you can pick up your ball and go play somewhere else if you don't like the current instance of the rules.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    WTB, That's why I like the containerized design. If the regulators in one area change the rules in a manner that doesn't suit your economic needs you pick up and move on. You can also do a little movement as load conditions adjust.

     

    A few of the shoe manufacturers were looking at doing this with factories on ships. You can bet what the countries they wanted to provide works from thought of that. Can't take my influential powers away!
    20 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    This whole thing with management seems like a relationship going bad and could explain why this board as to deal with the trolls, maybe sometime in the past they were us and had the same experience with what we seem to be going through at this point.

     

    If that may be the case I praise John for holding the line for so long and trying hard to help his position and the companies by informing the masses.

     

    I hope management is aware of the great job you have done keeping the herd in line from not stampeding management into the ground. Hopefully it's axions year for a change and in turn all ours.
    20 Jun 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Round II. Ding ding ding....

     

    Bosch, Yuasa and Mitsubishi join forces on Li-ion batteries

     

    Joint-venture will centre R&D in Germany

     

    http://bit.ly/13VskoT
    20 Jun 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2149) | Send Message
     
    It sounds like a straight forward admission that Li cells are not yet very useful in auto transportation. For whatever reason.

     

    If the German government is putting up tax money, then the companies are there mostly to get the subsidy and, maybe, learn something new. Any really new tech will take 10 years to become road ready. The manufacturing learning curve will need to reset to a lower value. Nothing short term here.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Bosch says eboosting is only a niche technology

     

    http://bit.ly/13VwLQH
    20 Jun 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (812) | Send Message
     
    "But Bosch will assist the powertrain at low engine speeds with mild-hybrid systems."
    20 Jun 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13490) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Note iindelco's earlier post, above...
    20 Jun 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue, Looks like they are playing down the CPT/Valeo solution. That's the ALABC demo.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (688) | Send Message
     
    HTL ! !

     

    Thanks for your tech offerings this morning. Pulled the trigger a mite bit lower than original limit order. Ordering more.

     

    Hope one day I can take you & JP out to lunch. :>)
    20 Jun 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    Summer is upon us and with it usually the grid gets additional stresses eg hurricanes and A/C loads.

     

    What kind of money is to be made from connecting a full sized Power Cube to the grid?
    20 Jun 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
     
    It depends on where and when. In Texas, it's around $50 / MWH, but when it get hot, the price can be pushed up to $5000 / MWH. You can't make much on the low end, so the trick is to fill up at night and hope you get a lot of hot sunny days.

     

    Lets say you can build out an entire 1 MWH system for $1000 / KWH, which is probably too low. You then have a $1 Million energy storage source that holds $50 worth of power most of the time. There have been discussions here about companies working on negotiation protocols to request the power be released and at what price the producer will get. The Texas regulators are raising the maximum rate to $9000 KWH in the next few years to encourage additional capacity generation.

     

    A typical microwave uses 1500 Watts. At $9000 / MWH, it costs $2.50 in electricity to heat a potato for 10 minutes. (End user rate payers usually pay an average price, not the peak wholesale. Consumers always end up paying for everything.)

     

    I wonder if anybody cares to calculate how much money a Tesla parked in a hot garage using 1500 watts to chill the battery is going to save vs gasoline. Anybody here want to work on a chilled water cooling system for electric cars: chill water at night, run a pipe to the vehicle while parked.
    20 Jun 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2241) | Send Message
     
    It's the fourth quarter for Axion no matter how you slice it after the last capital raise. There's no time left to change either the quarterback or the coach. They have to win or lose with the management team they've got now - good, bad or whatever.
    20 Jun 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    More electrification. And it's a safety related function.

     

    Bosch Rolling Out Vacuum-Free iBooster

     

    http://bit.ly/12e5Hro
    20 Jun 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    What's more effective? AGM with ultracaps or flooded with PbC?

     

    Lithium, lithium, lithium... And it goes good in 7-UP!

     

    Doesn't lithium need flooded support for low temperatures as well?

     

    Ricardo says only 'minor electrification' needed to reach 2025 CAFE standards

     

    "With the downsized engine, the project team used a belt starter-generator to provide regenerative braking and stop/start capabilities, cost-effective lead-acid batteries and super-capacitors to provide energy storage. It also used electric supercharging to provide improved transient response and avoid turbocharger lag.
    Mack concluded that the HyBoost approach can provide the benefits of electrification at a much lower cost than a full hybrid, making it more appealing to the mass market."

     

    http://aol.it/1c13oOa
    20 Jun 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Got a Phase II SBIR grant last year.

     

    "NextEnergy added a second innovation award and presented the two $10,000 NextEnergy − Alternative Energy Innovation Awards to Ann Arbor-based Inmatech and Arborlight. The Inmatech award was received by Ryan Wiltshire, business development officer. The company is developing a 12 V hybrid energy storage device to significantly increase the lifespan of batteries under aggressive loads imposed by start-stop operation of passenger vehicles."

     

    http://bit.ly/148hpqj
    -
    Inmatech Enters Phase II Development of Next Generation Supercapacitor through Second NSF Grant

     

    http://bit.ly/148hqKS
    -
    Their home page.

     

    http://inmatech-inc.com
    20 Jun 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Something to keep an eye on.

     

    German Car Industry Says 'Nein Danke' To Carbon Correct

     

    http://bit.ly/10BSC1e
    20 Jun 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    My apologies as I am over a week behind in my reading.
    If this is old news sorry about that.

     

    Breakthrough Insulating Material Lets Electric Motors Perfom Hotter Than Ever Before
    http://bit.ly/17qPsjQ

     

    Bosch Now Taking Orders for Evatran’s Plugless Level 2 Charging System; First Commercially Available Wireless Charger
    http://bit.ly/17qPqbU

     

    Underwriters Laboratory to Toughen Lithium-Ion Battery Testing Standards
    http://bit.ly/14N8OMu
    <Underwriters Laboratories says there have been more than 350 fires involving lithium-ion batteries since March 2012.>

     

    AAA Survey Doesn’t Offer Positive Outlook for Electric Vehicles
    http://bit.ly/14N8NYG
    <According to a survey conducted by AAA, 30 percents of driving-age individuals would not buy an electric vehicle due to range limitations.
    An additional 26 percent stated that electric vehicle cost deters them from purchasing one.
    And 8 out of 10 surveyed stated that they’d prefer to drive off a dealership’s lot with a gas vehicle rather than one that plugs in.>

     

    A company called Zaptera is attempting to revive the defunct Aptera.

     

    Nissan made a software improvement earlier in the month to make their capacity gauge more accurate.
    Today they announced.
    Nissan Prices Replacement Battery Cost For LEAF: $100 A Month
    http://bit.ly/14N8P2O

     

    <Nissan says today that for $100 per month, current LEAF owners are eligible to receive a replacement pack for their cars.
    This replacement would return owners “capacity bars” back to 12 (that’s full) and guarantee to the LEAF to maintain at least 9 bars for the rest of the life of your EV.
    Currently, LEAF owners have a 5 year or 60,000 mile warranty that their batteries will remain at least 70% capacity (also 9 bars).
    Doing ‘the math’ on the EV’s starting range of 75 miles, that puts the guaranteed EPA range at 52.5 miles under the factory warranty plan, or the extended battery replacement plan.
    Nissan has yet to flush out all the details, but says the program will start “during the first half of 2014.”>

     

    An electric motor cycle that actually has prices on the battery!
    Mission Motorcycles Introduces RS and S; AKA Tesla on Two Wheels (w/videos)
    http://bit.ly/14N8P2Q
    <The Mission R will be also available with three battery pack sizes – 12, 15 and 17 kWh, with base price of $32.499, $36.499 and $42.499. The smaller battery packs will offer ranges from between 105 to 120 miles, while the drivetrain remains the same.>

     

    As for Tesla

     

    http://bit.ly/14N8P2W
    Panasonic to Deliver 100 Millionth Lithium-Ion Cell for Tesla Model S by End of June

     

    Tesla to Perform “Live Pack Swap Demo” This Thursday
    http://bit.ly/14N8P30

     

    <Musk says Tesla will invest somewhere between $50 mill to $100 million to establish a nationwide network of swapping stations. This network will be capable of swapping the Model S’ battery packs in less than five minutes.>

     

    Tesla Issues Partial Recall on Model S for Problem With Rear-Seat Mounting Bracket
    http://bit.ly/14N8P2S
    20 Jun 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    The swap demonstration was very slick, but it's curious that Elon didn't mention that a 50 unit battery inventory for a swapping station will cost about twice as much as the swapping station itself.
    21 Jun 2013, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Every auto plant in the world has a ton of equally impressive operations that are required to put an auto together. This has been going on for decades. Boiler plate for anyone that has ever been near manufacturing.

     

    I'd be more impressed by a spread sheet that would show me how a tiny auto company could ever afford this and make it available in enough locations so it's not a complete PITA to find one.

     

    A couple of decades ago when I chose my bank for personal banking my selection was made with one primary goal. That I could drive from my home going in opposite directions and hit an ATM from the same financial institution in short order before beginning my day. There was only one. Which toaster they offered was way down on the list for consideration! :)
    21 Jun 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    lindelco: "show me how a tiny auto company could ever afford this and make it available in enough locations so it's not a complete PITA to find one."

     

    One model to follow is CLNE, which is building a "Natural Gas Highway." CLNE's CEO has said: "You don't need thousands of stations—you need hundreds in the right places" (http://on.wsj.com/19oUHxZ)

     

    Remember, with EVs, it's only on road trips that you fill up away from home or work. So, between cities, not in them.
    21 Jun 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Carnardie, Big difference between building a highway of fuel filling stations to accommodate commercial trucking between coasts with cheaper fuel vs a battery swap station for niche rich toys that's to be used for personal transport going to random destinations. Apples and oranges in so many ways IMO.

     

    BTW, Pretty expensive option to have built into every vehicle when perhaps some will never use it. Right now, of course, nobody is using it.
    22 Jun 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: NC DOT just closed (and will remove?) their two trial charging stations from rest areas along a major route - insufficient use to justify continuing the trial.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Carnardie, Forget about my comments on how expensive the interface would need to be in the car for battery swapping and that it's currently an expensive waste. Seems this gentleman has already picked up on the fact that it's not.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Did a job for Honda once and they only allowed 3 physical connections between an electric motor and a "production" connector before the motor was deemed unsalable. The mechanical interface between the two is designed to do things that are not repeatable for too many cycles. Need far more robust designs if that is your intent.
    22 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Interesting HTL. Thanks!

     

    I would think that this business model would be a chicken and egg one. You have to have enough filling stations along a major route before you can justify building the trucks to repeatedly use the route. Then, of course, if you do this will they come quick enough so you don't starve to death?

     

    Anyway, I've not followed this that closely but from afar it looks like a good idea if the savings to the trucking industry justify the cost over the route. I know, I know. Not a very deep statement. Just pointing out my lack of research into the details. And details are what really matters.
    22 Jun 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco
    "Did a job for Honda once and they only allowed 3 physical connections between an electric motor and a "production" connector before the motor was deemed unsalable. The mechanical interface between the two is designed to do things that are not repeatable for too many cycles. Need far more robust designs if that is your intent. "

     

    That rather sounds like Kandi will have a problem.
    22 Jun 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Not really Froggey. It all depends on the design. There is no problem designing connectors to go through varying numbers of cycles. But it does impact the cost. So in the case of Tesla it would not make sense to have a higher cost connector intended to go thought thousands of cycles if you were never going to use it.
    22 Jun 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    "insufficient use to justify continuing the trial."

     

    What I read what that the real reason was conflicting state and federal laws: http://bit.ly/188sYnc

     

    NC is, btw, trying to ban Tesla from selling cars that ironically have quite a number of NC-sourced parts, thanks to sales middlemen.
    23 Jun 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7884) | Send Message
     
    " So in the case of Tesla it would not make sense to have a higher cost connector intended to go thought thousands of cycles if you were never going to use it."

     

    I'd imagine swapping to be a rare event for any particular vehicle. If 99% of your charging is at home and your other choice is supercharging for free while you take a break, how often will you choose to pay for a swap?
    24 Jun 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, Understood. And thus my point. If you say it's a feature you have to build the infrastructure for it and have the vehicle design/build robust enough to assure that it will work for the life of the vehicle based on worst case wear. So you're building the cost of this feature into the fleet and as you suggest it will rarely be used as there are easier and more economical alternatives.

     

    So it's a poor decision, correct?
    24 Jun 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1087) | Send Message
     
    There is plenty of production electrical connectors and hydraulic connectors serving the mining industry that are in a far more aggressive environment than automotive, Tesla could just source parts from there, or make their own, or outsource production to Taiwan. Seriously, even 365 day/year daily battery swap is fairly light duty for some vendors.

     

    As far as cost, the engineering of its motor gives an indication of Tesla's fit for purpose philosophy.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    The point was about adding cost for a feature that some think will rarely if ever be utilized. A more robust connector that needs to assure adequate connections over a lifetime of battery swap adds cost. I'm not questioning if it can be done. I'm questioning if this is a wise allocation of resources for the customer and Tesla.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    You might ask the same question about the entire Supercharger infrastructure. The network will require immense capital spending by Tesla with no possibility that the network will return the invested capital, much less provide a return of capital and a reasonable return on capital. Swapping stations will increase the costs by an order of magnitude, particularly if human attendants will be required in case something goes wrong. I see lots of money being spent by Tesla that offers no possible return to Tesla stockholders except the remote possibility that the existence of the Supercharger network will tip enough fence sitters into the buyers camp to justify the spending.

     

    Just out of curiosity, how many additional copies of the Model S will need to be sold to justify the capital spending on the Supercharger network?
    24 Jun 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    John, a supercharger station costs Tesla $150k-300k depending on the presence of the solar panels. It may go up with energy storage and battery swap to $600k.

     

    Therefore, when 25% GM => 12.5% operating margin will be achieved, 15 to 60 cars will pay for a station. Tesla aims to have about 100 - 200 stations in two years. Say 150 stations at mid price. That is 4500 cars will have to be sold to cover the entire network. That will be the equivalent of half a quarter this time next year.

     

    With a full fast and free "refuel" network across the US, there will definitely be in excess of 10k fence sitters that will jump in at different stages.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1695) | Send Message
     
    What about operating costs? Lease, employees, taxe, insurance, etc?

     

    Not that I disagree with the build out - it's go big or go home.

     

    I don't know if a network is what fence sitters were waiting for though. Not just yet. Having chargers around your city is nice, but I doubt many were looking to drive their expensive new EV cross-country.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    Nicu> The $150 to $600 K figure people are throwing around does not include the 50 battery packs a swapping station will have in case somebody wants them. Those battery inventory costs are capital outlays just like the charging equipment.

     

    If Tesla is able to generate a 25% GM on 20,000 cars a year it will contribute $500 million to SG&A, R&D and other corporate overheads that consistently run $100 million per quarter without allowance for interest expense and other unknowns like Supercharger costs and derivative liabilities.

     

    Question your assumptions.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1085) | Send Message
     
    We were talking about additional cars to be sold for infrastructure build, not about EPS. Gross margin, if I understand correctly, includes materials and labor. Operating margins include SG&A, R&D and stock based compensation. Whatever is over 20k per year will bring profit / positive cash flow to be used for recharging network and factory expansion.

     

    I do not like the idea of battery swap for many reasons, including those batteries that depreciate too fast to justify the scheme. But maybe that demo was just a marketing stunt to break the last barrier (except initial price) to EV adoption. They have even said they will adopt a wait and see attitude and they will deploy battery swap stations only as demand occurs. I think the battery ownership would have to be rethought for the whole thing to work out smoothly.
    24 Jun 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Thanks IIndelco
    24 Jun 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (969) | Send Message
     
    I'll guess that less than 5 of these stations will ever be built. Back in 2009 US Cellular (a large regional cell company) launched Battery Swap. If at anypoint you needed/wanted to swap your battery you could come in and swap it out for a new one. Sounds like a great idea, right? They just ended the program this spring as it wasn't used. People didn't like using their batteries, people who did use it abused the batteries knowing they would swap crappy batteries which would then end up being used by someone else. Those other users became mad and didn't recommend the service. Think of how cheap a cell phone batter is and simple. The company expects the discontinuation of the program to save $5M annually.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1087) | Send Message
     
    Tesla products display quite a bit of brutal pragmatism, even though their choices may be unorthodox for the automotive industry. Whether it be avoiding permanent magnets for their motor, using li ion cells that are fungible at the negotiating table, or using the coating's bake to provide a T6 temper for their structure in a post welded condition. These are all reasonable decisions that the automotive industry has managed to avoid making but other industrys do make. To choose robust connectors really is not be that hard.

     

    I would state it the other way, the robust connectors that are needed to assure adequate connections over a lifetime of battery swap aids vehicle manufacture and improves reliability and most importantly eases serviceability. If the LEAF is any indication, just the reduction in accident insurance costs due to ease of battery removal would've justified a quickswap capacity for over the long term.
    24 Jun 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Renim, The designs, materials and processes selected for mass market vehicles vs niche luxury vehicles will most likely be quite different. Also material selections will often be made based on existing supply chain alignment. That Tesla went with an off the shelf lithium ion battery is not a surprise given their success was not assured so the supplier would be cautious. And Tesla cannot afford to do this on their own. When you start looking at the level of market penetration companies like Nissan are targeting in mass market sectors, price points are much lower and design efficiencies become far more important.

     

    I worked on platforms like GM's GMT-800 program which was the highest volume platform in the world at the time and I also worked on low volume programs like the EV-1. While the system I supplied did the same general function in both cases I will tell you the suppliers selected, materials, designs and processes where by and large a world apart. Supplying volumes like 1.5 million of something annually is a whole different game vs targeting a 20,000 unit/year volume.

     

    BTW, The EV-1 program was far more difficult in many aspects. Mostly new everything and almost NOBODY gets excited about that level of business. Not even internal to GM resources at the time. Like pulling teeth.
    24 Jun 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7884) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    I guess I'm saying they don't have to build for worst case scenario at all. Build it for a much more likely few hundred cycles or so and just repair the extremely rare worst case that may or may not pop up.

     

    Frankly I don't think this will be widely used or implemented in many locations, just a few high volume areas at most. I see it as mainly a blow to the psychological barrier of charging times that will bring in a number of fence sitting customers. It already has done so from anecdotal reports. A minor actual investment from the marketing budget that provides a lot of press and provides an actual real world product with some value. Win win in my book. It's also a demonstration of how easy it can be to upgrade your pack in the future. As I posted elsewhere Tesla has just demonstrated a giant battery pack vending machine where existing Model S and X owners can drive up and get the latest and greatest battery pack installed in 90 seconds. Even if most will have to go to a local service center to do so the idea is enticing, and shows your vehicle will not become easily outdated.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, Understand your point relative to fixing the worst case tail of the population. Unfortunately you can't treat high current electrical connections that way. In a nut shell, thermal events might occur. You have to design and build these things so they are bullet proof at the worst case use rate. The entire population, unless you want to have this as an optional feature.

     

    I like the idea of allowing the rich guy the opportunity to upgrade his ride to the latest battery conveniently. It's always good IMO to make it extra special and convenient for the rich to spend their money on something you provide.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7884) | Send Message
     
    I was actually thinking of the bolts more than the electrical connection. I have a 6+ year old MP3 player that I plug and unplug from the USB port of my computer at least once a day almost every day, still working perfectly fine. (Original lithium battery too). People plug and unplug their EV's in for charging every day. Electrical connections that can handle high cycles are just not that difficult or expensive to build, obviously scaled up appropriately. I also expect that if the connection were to develop high resistance for some reason the car and pack monitors would sense it and limit current and pop up a service warning. Not that difficult.
    25 Jun 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    JRP3, Most of your understanding, based on what you're relaying to me, comes from connectors in a different environment. The undercarriage of a car is a nasty environment. In order to have the electrical connections perform over a lifetime you have many things to consider that don't happen with your personal electronics connectors. Tape your MP3 player under a car in a rainstorm or in the NE on a salted road for one day and tell me if anything still works. You have to deal with oxidization on contacts, seals that need to wipe areas coming out and come back in clean, seals and their interface surfaces that don't lose their dimensions / elasticity such that they can keep an appropriate level of interference in order to not leak after 10+ years ...

     

    It's a whole different world vs plugging in your MP3 player to your puter so you can listen to tunes in the AM. And when you're one of the hundreds on MP3 owners that are not so successful your recourse after a 6-12 month period is? They don't worry about the tails of the bell shaped curves. Automotive has to for high voltage connectors and big ole storage batteries that might go boom with one occurrence being unacceptable.

     

    Yes, I know you have a hobby and you've build a personal EV from parts you researched and bought. That's great and it means you can understand what we're talking about. Unfortunately it's not the same thing. You're responsible for that vehicle based on how it performs as a good, bad or ugly transport unit. Far different than putting many vehicles out with people that will do the darndest' things and don't know their donkey from a hole in the ground.

     

    I'll leave you the last word on this topic if you so choose.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7884) | Send Message
     
    I just have to point out that the pack connections are not hanging down from the bottom of the car exposed, and I'm quite sure they are tightly sealed. I agree that Tesla did incur added expense in designing a swappable pack, I just don't think it's quite the burden you suggest. Obviously neither did Tesla.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    06/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hour).
    # Trds: 107, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 735033, AvTrSz: 6869
    Min. Pr: 0.1850, Max Pr: 0.1990, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1925
    # Buys, Shares: 20 170898, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1940
    # Sells, Shares: 85 550012, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1920
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 14123, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1925
    Buy:Sell 1:3.22 (23.3%),DlyShts 146500 (19.93%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.64%
    06/20: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2214, in 40 days: $0.1882

     

    Average trade size might look encouraging until you consider that the standard “present” size is now at 5K, rather than the 2.5K we saw when we traded consistently above $0.20. Today we had 24 of our trades that were >= 10K in size and 10 that were 15K-40K. My feeling (not done any math on it) is that this is a much higher percentage of “larger” trades than is normal. With this in mind, I don't read anything bullish into increasing average trade size.

     

    Price spread a bit wider today, unfortunately to the wrong side. Here's a breakdown.
    $0.1850-$0.1899: 139200 shares, 18.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1873, b:s 1:4.22, 18.5% buys
    $0.1900-$0.1945: 334626 shares, 45.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1915, b:s 1:4.06, 19.8% buys
    $0.1950-$0.1990: 261207 shares, 35.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1964, b:s 1:2.19, 30.3% buys

     

    Here you can see the appearance of what we've very often seen for a long time, “late-day weakness”. Some things seldom change. Compare it to the price breakdown above and you can tell where the lowest prices came in.
    09:30-09:56: 024009 shares, 03.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1983, 29.2% buys
    10:11-10:47: 084498 shares, 11.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1980, 22.4% buys
    11:01-11:59: 192654 shares, 26.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1941, 22.4% buys
    12:01-12:36: 031000 shares, 04.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1936, 64.5% buys
    13:07-13:51: 062600 shares, 08.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1928, 31.9% buys
    14:01-14:53: 207572 shares, 28.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1903, 17.4% buys
    15:01-15:52: 132700 shares, 18.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1884, 19.4% buys

     

    There's really not much different – continued increasing selling pressure, decreasing price per share, ... So I'll be unusually brief.

     

    My original and newer inflection points reflect this so detailing them seems a waste for now. Of the 18 numbers I look at on my original version, only one had the unmitigated gall to show a positive move. I will not name that one here to protect it from public embarrassment. My newer version is more pessimistic – there are no dissenters.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    qite some volume already, over 200.000 shares traded. Time to jump into the twenties!
    21 Jun 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    My gut feeling tells me we will see 10 cents in short order...:(
    21 Jun 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, the good news is that at those levels and below, even small amts of money buy a lot of shares.

     

    The bad news is that we have only seen the first part of the first repymt installment, and the stk has already cratered by about 1/3. After the 1st true-up next month, 8 more repymts to go.
    21 Jun 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    We hit 10 cents and I will load up BIG!!!
    21 Jun 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Maybe. When we heard some recent chest-pounding here, it was my signal to unload the shares I recently bought. Got 19.8 cents the other day. Better to be lucky than good.

     

    The obvious factor that makes buying any cratering different this time is the discount convertible notes. Before when we had plunges to 20 cents, for example, we had quick recoveries to 25 cents or whatever. But now with the giant overhang...

     

    Just further increases the pressure on the company to deliver huge news, ASAP, when those things have their own timelines.
    21 Jun 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    So what you are telling me is that I should sell everything now and wait for 8 more distributions losing roughly 33% each time. Thus the new buy in price is around 1 penny? Assuming there is no news of course...

     

    Its my understanding their current supply of cash will outlast the 8 more rounds of selling so it is a possibility isn't it?

     

    Then if I were in charge I'd spend money at 1¢ to buy my company back both for the company and myself. I could be way off on how this works but I've been reading you guys for what seems likeforever and you have every little aspect nailed down with the exception of WHEN?? I'm not talking about timing the market. Just in relation to the first big news of a sale. And if that news is still months off then God help us all!!
    21 Jun 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    AWOL E, the upcoming catalysts that we know about:

     

    Positive:

     

    SBIR phase II grant:not a done deal, but generally expected by folks here. $1million. Decision next month sometime. R&D being done with a major parts OEM, which is what might move the stk price needle, but the eventual revenue from this effort is probably several years distant. So lasting stk price effect unknown.

     

    NS999 out and about doing testing. Summer. Significance: 1) the project is still alive, 2) follow-on orders eventually, and 3) assistance with OTR effort.

     

    NY PC. 2013 perhaps, sounds like late in year to some here, others completely uncertain, and skepticism with value of PbC for many PC functions abounds.

     

    More ePower accomplishment news. Timing: spread throughout the year. Major orders not expected by Axion this year.

     

    Manufacturing partnership for supplying BMW. Expected by folks here to be The Saving Grace. Timing uncertain, probably a 2013 event judging by comments and mood here, and comment by the company last month that they are a few months into discussions. Lasting effect on stk price unknown, but generally hoped to be big.

     

    Wild card(s): by definition, who knows? The company has, from time to time, announced some big positive surprises, but none yet have been able to overcome the selling pressure, probably at least partly because investors eventually became aware of the uncertainty of successful translation into revenues and long lead-times involved, e.g., the PC unveiling in late 2011.

     

    Negative:

     

    Conversion of Notes to stk, as long as the stk price remains below 30 cents or so. Timing: 1st true-up early next month, 2 nd installment initial pymt in early August, with true-up in early Sept, then every month into next year. At today's 17.5 cents, the $9 million notes that the new investors have will be repaid with 60.5 million new shares ($9mil/(.175 x 85%)), for a total shares o/s of approx. 175 million. A safe PIPE-behavior assumption is that those shares will be sold as soon as available, and maybe even sooner, if they are shorting.

     

    Shorting: inconclusive if it's already occurring or not. Timing: perhaps as long as the Convertible Notes are outstanding.

     

    Time itself. The longer it takes for the positives above to happen, be announced, recognized, paid attention to, and accepted as materially positive, the more the death spiral PIPEing will hurt. A cash burn rate of, say $2 million per month, and a 17.5 cent share price, represents 11.4 million more shares per month.
    21 Jun 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4885) | Send Message
     
    I posted many concentrators ago that there would be another 50-75 million shares out with this raise, and that there would be 200 million outstanding when it was over, I really got bashed by this group here.
    Now you are figuring that there will be 175 million shares if they are issued at current prices ? so say 250 million shares outstanding?
    21 Jun 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    LT, Please don't use the term "this group" like we have an agreed to spokesperson(s) that represents us like the NRA or AARP as examples. This group is a moderated message board with people that share common interests in some sectors of technology and perhaps investing in some of the entities in the sectors with a primary focus on Axion. The people here, as far as I know, have never taken a vote to agree 100% on anything. We attempt to agree and disagree on specific points and maintain, not always perfectly, a level of respect while we spend differing times here based on out individual needs/interests.

     

    That's my perspective anyway. Others may have differing views but I think I'm directionally correct on the general intent of the group as described above and definitely correct that "this group" does not have anyone representing it as a spokesperson. Nor does it have some unified mission statement that we are following.
    21 Jun 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    Your numbers are nonsense LT. There were 115 million shares outstanding at March 31st. Even at the current price it would only take 67 million new shares to retire the debt.

     

    That's 180 million not 250 million, and you only get to that level if you assume that nothing positive is going to happen to move the price up.
    21 Jun 2013, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Do you believe that the PIPE holders are shorting in advance of receiving their shares? And do you think we should expect that they are selling shares as quick as they get their installments?

     

    This ideas seemed unlikely when first postulated - but how else can we explain this kind of downward pressure on no news?

     

    In my experience those that continue to post on message boards are usually still long the stock so I think the Axionista army still has many soldiers. Heck, even a few people have come back into the fold.

     

    Anyhow this month's volume is confounding absent the theory that we are being PIPE whacked, as it looks like we will trade over 10M shares and set a new volume record.
    22 Jun 2013, 03:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4885) | Send Message
     
    JP read Mr Investors comment, I was asking him for clarification about the total that he posted, they are NOT my numbers.....My numbers way back was 50-75 million and you said it was nonsense then too. Now it's 67 million so how far off was I ?
    22 Jun 2013, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    With the way the documents are structured, I don't see any particular need for the investors to short shares because they get their preliminary settlement and the make good payment in the form of registered shares that are delivered in electronic form through DTC.

     

    When you have stock sitting in your account there's no particular reason to short it that I'm aware of. I don't believe the new investors are long-term holders, but I don't believe they're stupid either, and driving the price into the ground would be a great way to guarantee that they never got more than a 15% ROI, which is a pretty stupid way to invest in micro-caps.
    22 Jun 2013, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Is it really that unlikely that the PIPE players would be shorting - knowing that they can cover the short once their distribution arrives later in the month(s)?

     

    Seems like anyone who shorted above 20 cents might end up with a near 20-30%+ gain once VWAP (est 18 cents) x .85 is calculated.

     

    This assumes they shorted in advance of receiving shares and that gets into TFH territory. Anyhow, I doubt this makes up the actions of all the players but it's not hard for me to discount that a few of the PIPE players may engage in this kind of game.
    22 Jun 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    The new investors got a big whack of stock a couple days after the registration statement went effective. When you have stock sitting in an account there's no benefit to borrowing shares and selling them instead of simply selling stock you already own.

     

    Focusing on short selling when an investor is probably just engaged in plain vanilla selling only muddies the water.
    22 Jun 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    John: couldn't be any muddier, IMO. from a reply I left in my insta to a query:
    ======================...
    "Moreover, as I commented, the most recent short positions report, which I believe normally just shows daily MM shorts that haven't cleared by the report cut off, was excessive relative to historical levels and could *not* be explained by normal MM daily short sales for the period and a normal T+3 settlement allowance.

     

    May 31, 2013 821,067 - almost 5 times the prior level, May 15, 2013 171,561, which was also high but *could* be explained by T+3 mechanics of settlement (using the total daily short volume for the applicable days), and now almost 52 times the prior four months' average of ~15,853 (calculated by me - not on the following link).

     

    http://bit.ly/uGVJsb
    =====================

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    I'm watching the data like a hawk, but only have a single bi-monthly entry to puzzle over and while two points can define a line I prefer to see three or four before reaching preliminary conclusions. For now, color me puzzled.
    22 Jun 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    John: a couple possibilities cross my mind. The more pleasant one is that the financiers may be hedging, as Gilder, Gagnon and Howe used to do on CPST. My guess in that case is net portfolio holds it's value as the long positions lose value the short positions gain an equivalent value. All beta is eliminated.

     

    I *guess* the follow-on step could include covering buys if their assessment is that a bottom was (nearly?) reached. They profit on the short position and get the appreciation on the long position if they guessed right.

     

    My other scenarios are much more TFHish and the sort of thing I normally leave alone because it involves so much supposition, "what ifs" and such that can't be supported by data ... very much until it's maybe too late.

     

    There is one scenario I do feel comfortable considering aloud.

     

    The key that adds confidence, I *think*, that they are likely to short is the knowledge of what's going to happen to price and number of shares issued as we go forward unless something bolsters the share price for a relatively extended period. Financially-driven participants, I *think*, would have incentive to drive price lower to maximize their profit via both short covering after shorting and getting increasingly larger number of shares (via a lower lowest 20-day average price) at the start of each cycle.

     

    The "increasingly larger number of shares" desirability is predicated on a thought that the more time that passes the more likely a price-bolstering event will occur "soon" and the financiers can then profit more due to the larger number of shares held at lower and lower prices over time.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Good job, HTL. Remember, too, that there are investors that short PIPE stks. Rule of thumb is PIPE stks = wild west.

     

    We get another bi-monthly short interest data point (for June 14th) tomorrow.

     

    LT, the shares o/s in my comment above's scenario was TOTAL = 175mil, AFTER PIPE shares. Thought my post was clear.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    I have no problem with your estimate Mr. Investor. I'd rather see a smaller number, but if wishes were horses beggars would ride.
    24 Jun 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    My calc above was just how the math works with the assumptions given, such as using the current stk price of 17.5 cents. I'm not willing to offer my opinion of the future stk prices and therefore shares o/s, as my guess is no better than everyone else's guesses.

     

    I've been very impressed with this blog's usefulness in providing info about Axion, but as I've also mentioned, the prognostications have been terrible.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1695) | Send Message
     
    My wild guess - a separate group of investors shorted right before or after the deal, and perhaps added more shorts after the registered shares hit. After capitulation, they covered sub 20c (high volume days). I don't think it's the lending investors, as it's small potatoes for each of them, and they would want to have a good relationship with the partners. Why not swing for the fences...
    24 Jun 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, whatever it's been, at least some of it is not over, as there is yet again selling pressure and it's being led by ARCA as usual.
    24 Jun 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Mr Investor , thanks for your original reply to my First post. It was exactly what I was looking for. I didn't mean to start a fued over number of outstanding shares. At either length we can all agree that we hope it is as small a number as possible!

     

    On a technial note; does anyone have a link handy to the technical specs of the Pbc, they do seem hard to find and I can't possibly reread 245 concentrators. I see many batteries from Alpha in my work and want to do a side by side. Does anyone happen to know who makes Alphas batteries? They already seem to have products for many applications the Pbc would be good for.
    24 Jun 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    AWOL ENGINEER, Here's the link to Alpha.

     

    http://www.alpha.com
    24 Jun 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (712) | Send Message
     
    lindelco,

     

    I believe that is a bad link.

     

    From what I can remember, given that the sun is well over the yardarm in Bermuda, one of the major gripes has been that Axion has not yet published a definitive document outlining the full set of specs of the PbC.
    24 Jun 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Albert. The link works for me. It is the link to Alpha batteries which was the second half of AE's question.

     

    As for PbC specifications. Um well err. You're right. Not published. :(
    24 Jun 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    screaming buy at this level, the selling is coming from small investor running scared. TG knows whats he's doing, and so do the investors!
    21 Jun 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13490) | Send Message
     
    Some investors make moves "in" when they feel comfortable with the macro situation, and "out" when subjects like the Fed "tapering off" QE come to light.

     

    There is some of this happening today. Those that treat their portfolio like a light switch are turning "off", and selling everything. I've always wondered why these guys don't just sell out every May...
    21 Jun 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    With the share price so low now, one thing management could do is buy back shares on the open market at these low prices. Is it something they can legally do?
    21 Jun 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, Why would they do that when they will be issuing new shares below this price? That's the problem with signing up for a PIPE. They hit you over the head with it.
    21 Jun 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    and other places
    21 Jun 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Ouch! But they hit you over the head first I hope. ;)
    21 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    iinde, roflmao

     

    time to get fitted for some PIPE

     

    http://bit.ly/17s2j5o
    21 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1772) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Head, knees, you name it, they're hitting it today.
    Days like this remind me that I'm glad I'm not retiring for another 20-30 years. My Axion stock may be worth something by then! :-)
    21 Jun 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Labtech, We'll know long before that. It better give us a firm clue in approx. now-12 months or someone else gets our cheese. The new "strategic investors" might just get most of it anyway. Worst case.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Lloyd Hanlin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    The last group of investers paid $0.35 per share. They should have had more info. to go on than our group. TG has kept basically quiet between quarters and conference calls in the past. We are getting more agitated because of the extremely low values this time & his promise of 300% increase. His projection could only have come from e-power, N.S. and others. Their expectations were flawed or exagerated due to unknown factors. Perhaps overly optimistic due to various reasons. TG probably was overly optimistic himself. Results for the first quarter may show a lag as to the increase.
    21 Jun 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • LASF
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I keep thinking back to Mercy Jiménez's comment about sales projections when she got out. If management cannot provide any visibility, then I suppose you're going on hope, regardless of how good the technology is.

     

    Right now my hope is for a successful and timely completion of the agreement with the battery maker.
    21 Jun 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    "Right now my hope is for a successful and timely completion of the agreement with the battery maker."

     

    I remain optimistic, but could Axion's continuing share price weakness cause concern at BMW, and possibly disrupt this whole process?
    21 Jun 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2623) | Send Message
     
    Good move on Mercy's part. Whatever my thoughts on eventual success, another lesson in marrying a stock.
    21 Jun 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, everyone has to make their own transaction decisions, but when I hear talk about "digging in my heels" and such, I cringe. That investment approach is silly-bad.

     

    Back when I was doing a lot of penny stock investing, I dug in my heels a few times and every time, ended up taking a beating.

     

    It's ESSENTIAL to remain logical, realistic and dispassionate.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >WayneinOregon ... I don't think that the share price of Axion is of any concern to any of the customers we know of. You have to answer the question of why it would?

     

    1) The company is not under pressure to pay outsized debt repayment or any other financial metric that jeopardizes on going business.
    2) There is enough cash on hand to keep doing business for at least a year, maybe 2, without accruing debt for operations.
    3) The product as existing several years ago has proved some worth or the customers would have already left.
    4) The product is continuing on an improving quality ramp. So it is better now then when they initially determined it was a viable solution.

     

    I wish the current potential customer base (or "strategic investor") would be a little more supportive with the finances like, for instance, Duke Energy was with Xtreme Power. Axion could use a good benefactor, but when the time comes to step out of the shadows I'm sure Axion will have the paperwork to show Mr. Market or a bank to secure what is needed to ramp.

     

    Current shareholder are freaked because that is just what shareholders do. Why it goes down everyday is part of that. The rest could be anything the imagination can conjure from hostile vendetta into bankruptcy to an entity trying to chase the current shareholders out to take control for cheap. I don't know so I'll watch. My friend sitting across from me likes to joke that Axion should be nicknamed "Evap-xion" and this when puddle finishes the cycle we're in (have been for years now) it will complete by raining.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    LASF, IIRC, Mercy wanted the ability to measure mgmt's results---if not sales, then at least some other metrics. Number of RFPs over time, for example. Or employees. Or cost reductions. Or a host of other milestones.

     

    In my experience, she and anyone else requiring those things as part of a penny stk investment decision is barking up the wrong tree with those companies just entering commercialization. Mgmt doesn't even know a lot of those things themselves, with any useful certainty. And no way are they gonna let the public investors know, even if they did. Just too much uncertainty. Plus or minus 300% kinda stuff.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • LASF
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Investor- I think the thing with micro caps is to invest when they are on the first stages of commercialization. Otherwise, you'd have to deal with "the valley of death" (and in some cases never get out). Problem is, how do you determine this. I think *now* that it is best to wait until there is some clarity, even if you miss the first double. If management itself is foggy, then what hope is there for an individual investor?

     

    In the case of companies that sell their products to a lot of small customers, I think you'll see those metrics you mentioned develop over time, and you make a decision, based on your desired risk/reward profile, on when to hop in. In the case of the whale hunters, I *now* think that you just need to wait for the big signed agreement. (We have all learned that things usually take longer - and SP drop further - than most expect). And even after the initial run-up, chances are you can still get a better price than the early stockholders.
    21 Jun 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2623) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I - the worst part of your advice is that I am very well aware.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    LASF, there's a whole continuum of risk/reward. Get in very early and you need 10-30 baggers to compensate for the fact that many will go bust. Get in a little later, at higher prices after some unknowns become knowns, and you target 5-10 baggers, and so forth.

     

    While Axion finally has a product to sell, and more mkts than ever to hopefully sell it to, the threat of extreme share count dilution is a real ball-breaking dilemma. This is a race against time. I and several others have been asking for awhile now if this is a 10-bagger from x, or y? X might be 5 cents, or 25 cents. Not looking at all good at the moment, and the stk chart still looks like he[[, but who knows?
    21 Jun 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2241) | Send Message
     
    I told a friend I would take the summer off from the APC's but as I watch the price slide whenever I log into my brokerage site I get sucked into reading the APC's again for help in reading my very dark and cloudy crystal ball. When I peer deep enough all I see is JR rubbing his hands together and cackling gleefully!

     

    This stock reminds me of the book "Riptide" which is based on the famous hunt for buried treasure at the bottom of the "Water Pit" on Oak Island. No matter how deep the price falls the bottom continues to be ripped out of it and I'm no closer to the treasure!

     

    The only way to hold this stock is with DRich's attitude and remember that as he told Valleywood, the price will be lower than whatever you paid for it. The only thing I am confident of holding this stock is that Robert Averill, who owned 3,772,059 AXPW shares in 2009, and who just sunk another $750,000 into Axion is no fool. He's been with Axion since 2004 and I think he wrote the check to buy the New Castle battery plant. I can't imagine he took a shot into the dark.

     

    He's 72 and my experience working with older business people as a consultant was they were only interested in "Now" not later. So, here's to Bob! Push this beast across the finish line!
    21 Jun 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Averill has doubled down but sadly few others have seemed to do so. I think most Axionista bellies are full (or upset) since I no longer see the excitement for dirt cheap shares. How much lower can it go? Not long back people thought this was a $5 stocks. Heck some have cost basis at or above a buck. Now we are talking about a dime =(
    21 Jun 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Lloyd Hanlin
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Correction. Results for the last quarter may show a lag as to the increase.
    21 Jun 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    "Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced that Audrey Zibelman was confirmed by the New York State Senate to serve as a commissioner of the New York Public Service Commission (PSC)"

     

    http://bit.ly/11SdSuH

     

    "Ms. Zibelman is a Founder and was President and Chief Executive Officer of Viridity Energy, Inc., which she formed after more than 25 years of electric utility industry leadership experience in both the public and private sectors"

     

    Current "Executive Team:
    http://bit.ly/11SdSuL

     

    haven't checked to see how her leaving meshes with

     

    Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Announces $15 Million Investment In Viridity Energy

     

    http://bit.ly/QhsDps

     

    though she's quoted in the press release. She has quite the resume and seems like a person with a plan who welcomes new challenges.

     

    http://bit.ly/11Sehxh ??? :-)
    21 Jun 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Primus Power Partners with the Bonneville Power Administration, Puget Sound Energy and DOE on 500 kW Energy Storage Project

     

    Key demonstration of energy storage in Puget Sound Energy territory

     

    http://bit.ly/11ShIEa

     

    "The consortium is studying the potential installation of grid-scale flow batteries ...

     

    Utility districts with a high percentage of wind power are seeking opportunities to enhance the integration of variable renewable resources, such as wind and solar....

     

    Primus is the only energy storage company to receive government grants from the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E), and the California Energy Commission (CEC)."
    21 Jun 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2414) | Send Message
     
    Spider9 Launches Residential Energy Storage Series

     

    New compact energy storage units offer market leading performance and safety solutions that are designed specifically for residential and light commercial markets.

     

    http://bit.ly/10E7bRS

     

    "The units include access to the Spider9 web based ‘Spider Sense’ system monitoring portal and optional features such as grid independent operation."

     

    "What we do:" http://bit.ly/10E7a0f

     

    CEO came from A123 .... http://bit.ly/1c4oWtv
    21 Jun 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    10c here we come.

     

    The Granville train is coming off the tracks,been at the controls for 3 years too long ! actually was never on the tracks properly.
    Too late for crossing fingers but I'm afraid that's all one can do at this juncture.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Does the BMW situation even matter on a large sales revenue for the company at this point. Seems to be just a catalyst of news to help move the needle up like it did a couple years ago. Unless they are testing the shit out this thing so they can use it in the majority of the model line.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    RyanFBell: The SA moderation folks will probably nail you - they deleted me for the word "b u g g e r" even though admitting it was not used towards anybody or in a derogatory fashion. Claimed "slippery slope" issues threatened their "high level" of discourse and discussion.

     

    I guess it threatens all the children that frequent this site who've likely not been exposed to "adult" language yet, since they've not entered kindergarten.
    </snark>

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Ryan, An agreement would be a gold seal of approval that the market needs PbC. Automotive would sponsor, indirectly, scaling the application. Sales would take time but access to money at more reasonable terms would come because a solid business case could be put together with a firmer vision of future sales in a known time frame. So you'd have a well respected industry giving the technology and the manufacturing plan a thumbs up in essence. Since Axion does not have this now they are forced to negotiate terms in dark back alleys.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Me thinks we are a few weeks away from such an agreement!
    21 Jun 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (812) | Send Message
     
    "they are testing the $h!t out this thing so they can use it in the majority of the model line." is the general consensus here.
    21 Jun 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Greentonge, I don't think it necessarily needs to be used in the majority of "their" vehicles. The WW market for light passenger vehicles is pretty big so just getting access at a reasonable level at one player opens a big door. And this is only one sector where the characteristics of PbC have application..

     

    Global Light Vehicle Production

     

    http://bit.ly/107ZGjL
    21 Jun 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Sorry about the language, hopefully it finds it way into a 2014.5 model, if not the 15's will be our best bet.

     

    Was wondering if the signing of such a deal is worth more to the stock then waiting to find out the people just don't care enough to want it. It would have to be a standard feature rather then an option.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >RyanfBell ... By the 2017 model years S/S will be standard equipment in many makes & models of autos. It's the cheapest implementation on the road to the 2025 CAFE targets. It probably will be an option on many for 2 more model years until the industry figures out how to get it down pat with just a couple of standard systems.
    21 Jun 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    It's coming DRich.

     

    Power Distribution for Start-Stop Systems with Dual Battery Approach

     

    Note1) In development, samples available

     

    http://bit.ly/N7ensn
    -
    And these guys are not small potatoes (slide 4). Since they are based in Europe, you can guess, they do significant work for the majors there.

     

    http://bit.ly/10EH79l
    21 Jun 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Interesting,

     

    CSIRO drops lead-acid research

     

    http://bit.ly/14c0mnt
    21 Jun 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    Doe Run Presents on Future of Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries at International Lead Conference

     

    "Today, John Likarish, marketing manager at The Doe Run Company (Doe Run), presented at the 18th International Lead Conference. The conference, hosted in Prague, Czech Republic, from June 19 through 21, 2013, focused on the future of the lead industry, and served as an opportunity for battery producers, metals providers and related leaders to examine challenges and opportunities facing their industry."

     

    http://bit.ly/1c5bNAl
    21 Jun 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10909) | Send Message
     
    The soap opera continues I see. .17 cents and all the praying in the world won't solve this one. Sorry to break the news but I haven't posted in months yet I still see the same thoughts year after year !!

     

    Good Luck !

     

    Loading up at .10 cents sounds like a plan though.
    21 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2241) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if you've looked at the Google Doodle of the day, but I am certain the person at the end of the line on the right owns Axion stock.
    21 Jun 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    No Bang, If he owned Axion the snorkel would be shorter. Cough! :)
    21 Jun 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: After due consideration of your suggestion about "Axion ... shorter", I conclude that you have inadvertently propagated the basic design flaw of the original product. If one is an Axion holder there must be an inverted snorkel.

     

    Early beta testing has indicated this to be the correct orientation to produce the observed results in a repeatable manner, as the scientific method requires.

     

    If "fleet testing" of this corrected design is considered, appropriately trained personnel must be on-site to administer appropriate manipulations to expel water from the lungs.

     

    Otherwise, as with Axion longs, albeit inconsistently and not always repeatable without the inverted snorkel, choking may be observed.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Could be but the inverted snorkel would eliminate optimism entirely and shorten the the process to conclusion. An appropriate length snorkel in the depicted orientation allows for just enough relief to afford a longer and thus much more lasting experience. This IMO better represents the Axion journey. Both designs yield the same eventual outcome but to garner the full spectrum of being an Axionista I think the Tantalus series snorkel delivers a more realistic representation than the Hadian design.

     

    Voluntary water boarding. Tickets right this way. Get em while the price is higher for optimum pleasure.

     

    PS Trying to get one designed so you can talk and share your experience while you're in a state of euphoria. We'll call this design a snarkel. :)
    22 Jun 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "We'll call this design a snarkel"

     

    Excellent! Another sniglet arisen from the depths of a creative, and slightly warped(?), mind.

     

    And because it sounds so much like it, we could use it in place of <snark> as well. The snarkel is the officially sanctioned tool required to be effectively snarky!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2013, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10909) | Send Message
     
    BANG

     

    Doesn't make it a smart play no matter how many own it my friend..
    It was a great play to load up at 30 cents, then 25, 20, so why stop.

     

    Sorry so many people are underwater on this one.

     

    Great use for the tax write off you might need though.
    24 Jun 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    An interesting debate on batteries given by the University of Berkeley:

     

    http://bit.ly/1aAX8iu
    21 Jun 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    NIce link. Does a great job explaining the point JP always makes here about the scarcity of material breakthroughs vs those who may expect Moore's law type progress in batteries. Not to mention he talks about true battery costs (hint: Tesla batteries estimated over 20k).
    22 Jun 2013, 02:48 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1560) | Send Message
     
    Yep! I found it interesting that battery technology progress is of the order of 5% a year, if that!
    22 Jun 2013, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    I explained the problem last week as "chemistry in a can," which is all any battery is. When you use the same can people have used for decades and make modest adjustments to the can contents, incremental gains of a few percent per year are all you can expect. Step change gains can only come from major changes in chemistry or a complete redesign of the can.

     

    The PbC, bi-polar batteries, lithium-sulfur and lithium-air are major changes in chemistry that completely redesign the can. Everything else is just new and improved chemistry in the same old can.
    22 Jun 2013, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    06/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog, (up ~1 hr.).
    # Trds: 121, MinTrSz: 220, MaxTrSz: 56573, Vol 808784, AvTrSz: 6684
    Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1751
    # Buys, Shares: 48 207300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1767
    # Sells, Shares: 69 576084, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1744
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 25400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1796
    Buy:Sell 1:2.78 (25.6% “buys”), DlyShts 146900 (18.16%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.50%
    06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850

     

    The last line above and the following five say almost all needing saying I think.
    06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968
    06/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2292, in 40 days: $0.1948
    06/18: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2266, in 40 days: $0.1926
    06/19: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2242, in 40 days: $0.1906
    06/20: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2214, in 40 days: $0.1882

     

    If my math is correct ...

     

    The match, reinforcing the above, is VWAP.
    $0.2122, $0.1999, $0.1963, $0.1961, $0.1925 and today's $0.1751.

     

    Add in volume, in thousands: 742.26, 436.05, 189.36, 295.91, 735.03 and 808.78.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    “An agreement would be a gold seal of approval that the market needs PbC. Sales would take time but access to money at more reasonable terms would come because a solid business case could be put together with a firmer vision of future sales in a known time frame. Since Axion does not have this now they are forced to negotiate terms in dark back alleys.”
    .........................

     

    Great post Iindelco. — Got me to thinking again about what continuing efforts are being made to secure a constructive strategic investor. My understanding is the money that became available in May for the coming year is taken out only as needed; that TG made the best deal he could to “keep the doors open”, but that Axion is not “required” to take this money.

     

    Given the dramatic stock price depreciation over the past couple weeks, it’s now appearing [to me anyway] that the financing was far more toxic than some of the B-C grades that were given to it at the time. Either that’s the case, or Mr. Market believes it’s the case; not sure it really matters at this time. — But I’m wondering, would it be reasonable to assume [or hope] TG is continuing to diligently work for better financing arrangements? And the only thing keeping this from happening is the same thing that kept it happening in the past; a lack of a “firmer vision of future sales in a known time frame”?

     

    It seems like it would be a great thing if Axion could make an early exit from the current financing arrangements. Everybody assumes we’d see an impressive pps pop on a positive news announcement, but would an even more important development be an opportunity to jump start new strategic investor negotiations? I’m sure it would be a tremendous relief for all of us if this could somehow happen this year yet, and take some of this nerve-wracking anxiety off the table.

     

    This is a scenario I would love to see play out. But I really have no idea how realistic such hopes are. My understanding of corporate financing is extremely limited, so any feedback would be very much appreciated!
    22 Jun 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    Axion has already taken the money, all of it. Some of the cash is sitting in restricted Axion accounts, but there is no early exit from the financing. There's no way to tell for sure but I'd be willing to bet even money that the bulk of our selling pressure is coming from retail investors who are afraid of the financiers, rather than from the financiers themselves.
    22 Jun 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    John: with the exception of "bulk", which I'm unsure of, I also believe that a *large* number of shares are being dumped by long retail positions.

     

    Any other behavior under the circumstances would, IMO, be atypical.

     

    I can't speak for others, but I can tell you that I have spent a lot more time than is reasonable for me considering the wisdom of my long position.

     

    Right now it's not an easy path to stay on.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Jun 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. --- I guess one other financing question I still don't have a good understanding of. Is it Axion's choice, or the financier's choice as to whether repayment is made in the form of stock or cash?
    22 Jun 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (963) | Send Message
     
    "I can tell you that I have spent a lot more time than is reasonable for me considering the wisdom of my long position."

     

    HTL, I think your'e echoing the sentiment of many others here. I'm not sure it would be reasonable if you DIDN'T spend an unreasonable amount of time considering this all. :-)
    22 Jun 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    I guess TG doesn't play the fiddle too well; otherwise it's hard to understand this deal we inked =). http://bit.ly/19qELLy
    22 Jun 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, the only way out is to continue to eat this elephant. I hope Axionistas keep their appetite. If we can get back near 30 cents then the dilution can be mitigated some. Or better yet, TG needs to release some market breaking news. Some think he must have something to even have dared to enter into this deal we all complain about.
    22 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I'm with you and John about who the bulk of sellers are or might be. The lots sold don't make economic sense for a professional because of profit being less than overhead. The only exception that [just] might sense, as HTL pointed out, is as a hedge looking to build a larger long position. I find even that barely over the line of sensible in as illiquid a stock as Axion but I see this game all the time in [paper] Oil albeit the price action is 180 deg different.

     

    My solution has been to just expel my Axion from my normal portfolio view. Literally "sock drawer" it. I'm not a buyer right now but will be, in spades, if the company ever gives me a reason to buy. Presently the game of expectation fear & low share price lust are just not worth paying close attention to for me. Just not good business and makes for a boring forum.
    22 Jun 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    WIO, I think that Axion is working hard toward commercialization and that is, at this time, receiving almost all of their focus. Commercialization includes not only the technical progression of the PbC product/process but also supporting customer program requirements.

     

    But Axion also has one other requirement to move the PbC forward for one of their markets (automotive). They need to find a tier one supplier that they can build a business case with that makes sense to both parties to service the sector. This is something Axion cannot do on it's own.

     

    The financing Axion just received is what it is. The only way to improve upon the cost is to move the business case for Axion forward. And if the financiers are nefarious that might not even be enough, since they have tools to move the stock price around, unless the signs are a grand slam. Axion needs great news and if this were not the case they would have gotten far better terms on their capital raise.

     

    Axion needs a big customer to raise his hand and say "aye matey". We're workin' with isn't workin' any more.
    22 Jun 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (277) | Send Message
     
    I too follow these significant drops in pps intensely. But except for the disappearance of the HUB possibility, all the other potentials for the PbC are still there. So 1% of the Axion shares are still in the sock drawers here.
    22 Jun 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    Wayne,

     

    In theory Axion could make payments in cash but I don't know where that cash would come from since they are cash flow negative. Also I think if TG had anything else lined up he would have kept it on fumes for a few more months awaiting a close of a better offer. For whatever reason, the better placement offers must not have been there for this cookie jar dip.
    22 Jun 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2649) | Send Message
     
    ARCA's consistent presence on the best offer since the new deal, and very rarely beforehand, tells me some big boys are involved on the sell side one way or another--the new investors hedging, selling down and/or others shorting. Our knowledge of blog comments here has shown that retail has been handled mostly thru CDEL, ATDF and UBSS.

     

    Also, the rapid, giant increase in the bi-monthly short number from almost zero before the new deal closed to over 800k at May 31st also suggests something bad may be happening. We'll get the 6/14 data on Tues.

     

    Of course, it doesn't take a genius to think that retail is selling a lot, too. So far, I think the best explanation for the stk price plummet is a combo of big boy and retail selling.

     

    The pressure is higher then ever for Axion to deliver plummet-stopping then reversing news:

     

    http://bit.ly/1a54JqD
    23 Jun 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    This is flagged as a Ford RFI response. Has some info. on where A123 sees some of the possible system costs for "Advanced Micro Hybrids". (pg. 8)

     

    Thoughts?

     

    Lithium-Ion Batteries for
    Micro-hybrids

     

    CALSTART Leadership Circle

     

    Angela Duren
    June 5, 2013

     

    http://bit.ly/14pS0c8
    22 Jun 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: It's nice to see one of our own (Q: who's the adopted and the adopter?) get some satisfaction: on page three is presented an an image and text, "Micro-hybrids are a cost effective solution for higher volume impact on fuel economy requirements", that puts what John has said so many times about 1 big battery in a car vs. many smaller batteries in many cars providing better results.

     

    Kudos to John for leading (as in "ahead of", not "directing") California, which as we all know many think leads the nation in enlightenment.

     

    Hm , maybe I should've worn my snarkel here?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2013, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13490) | Send Message
     
    Interesting numbers, iindelco. Thanks.
    23 Jun 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yes. John was right on the money on that point. Kaizan works. Lot's of little improvements continually applied with a broad brush moves you forward in meaningful ways.

     

    Good place for a snarkel. :))
    23 Jun 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... So, according to A123 estimates, all the recent grousing about a PbC being in the $400 range (subject to unknown cost reduction) is right there in the mix and possibly coming at the low end of pricing. Worry warts.
    22 Jun 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Rich: Possible additional savings? Since we know SOC/voltage is a linear relationship, might be savings in the sensor, control and/or other conversion equipment?

     

    I'd also like to see, somewhere, a DCA and discharge comparison of various Lithium based units to the PbC. And estimated lifetime. I keep remembering how Ed. B. mentioned that the battery could be "refreshed" to substantial degree of new state with a trickle charge every so many years.

     

    I didn't see any reference at all to temperature management, which could increase the Lithium based cost, in the presentation. Is this nano-phosphate chemistry insensitive to temperature extremes? Does it not have heat generated in substantial amounts upon charge or discharge at high rates? I don't know, just wondering.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2013, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Important to me is to understand how small a PbC battery can you get away with for the intended cycling. The biggest disadvantage of PbC is it's mass/volume. So if you're cycling it through it's sweet spot what is the amount of energy that is needed to support xy% of your target energy harvesting opportunities? Understanding this is key to figuring out just how much of an offsetting disadvantage the mass/volume is to the price advantage. It's very important to understand this but we don't know the key factor which is how much energy, worst case, they are really looking to shuttle back and forth over what time frames. ( But hey, It's not like that junk AGM battery is really delivering on this point.)

     

    One other point is where the different energy storage technologies can be placed in the vehicle. For example the AGM battery wants to be kept out of the engine compartment due to temperature extremes. If I were a risk manager I'd keep the lithium ion battery out of the passenger compartment. The PbC? Can it go in the engine compartment? This would be a plus. If I recall correctly Dr. Buiel indicated this would be bad for positive plate corrosion like with AGM. With the new lower resistance could it be put there because this is a money saver. Not having those long copper runs.

     

    Anyway, That's the problem with a little data. It opens up more questions! ;)
    -
    HTL, Kirk T. was excited about the voltage curve of PbC because of it's contribution to the ability to measure SOC. I can see why he is so excited now that I better understand what BMW is doing with AGM. It's IMO a far better system if you can accurately measure SOC vs having the BMS constantly doing math to try to keep track of it while your battery is aging in different ways depending on climate, varying use cycles etc. The BMW system is a real compromise and it shows if you snoop around the various forums on the internet.

     

    On you other point concerning the refresh. It think the BMW system does this on a timed basis with AGM and I think this could also be arranged for the PBC such that the electronics and the generator/alternator do this as a maintenance routine in some fashion. Maybe I'm wrong here and I need to think this through more.
    23 Jun 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "On you other point concerning the refresh ..."

     

    IIRC, it was a trickle charge over an extended time (6 hrs? Overnight? ...) so I have difficulty imagining much more than a DIC (Driver Informtion Center?) display that says "You need to refresh the battery" and stop repeating it when it gets done. Of course, "Please make an appointment with your dealer to have this vital service performed" would display also. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    HTL, How about if you made sure the SS system was disabled for the refresh event and thus the flooded and PbC batteries were full charged when parked for the evening. Maybe there is enough energy in the flooded battery such that it, through the electronics, could perform this task? And the inverse if it makes sense for the flooded battery.

     

    Two batteries offers an opportunity for something to investigate. The buddy system! :)
    23 Jun 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    With respect to LiFePO4 battery temperature stability, this paper may shed some light:

     

    http://bit.ly/11HfdEX

     

    My recollection of Dr. Buiel's discussion of the trickle charge refresh of PbC is that it took 36 hrs on a trickle charge to rejuvenate the DCA and power characteristics.
    23 Jun 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    Dr. Buiel's comment in APC#202:

     

    "PbC batteries also benefit from being equalized. We found that after 100,000 miles if you could just charge the batteries for 36-48h continuously, then most of the capacity could be recovered as you break up sulfate on the positive electrode. Automobile companies wouldn't consider this but I bet the ePower truck could have such an option to just plug it in for a few days when the truck was down in maintenance or just off the road (weekend?). This could greatly extend the life."

     

    http://bit.ly/Zy3xmY

     

    After reading a bit more to get an understanding of this, an "equalization charge" is not a trickle voltage, but a higher than normal charge voltage, with the overcharging causing sulfates to break up, but tending to cook out the electrolyte, so not a good idea for VRLA type AGM batteries.
    23 Jun 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I guess that's reasonable. But I presume that the SLI battery would be downsized since it doesn't have to normally carry the hotel loads? I don't have any idea how much energy would need to be drawn or if there was enough capacity in the SLI to do it w/o risking a failure to start.

     

    If were going to disable s/s for a day, I think the trickle should be started then while the engine is still running. If it happened to be a long trip with few stops, that might do most of it. The SLI battery could finish it up when the stop is done at the EOD?

     

    I wonder if it can be done in stages or has to be a continuous start-to-finish "refresh".

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jun 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I thought I remembered Dr. Buiel addressing something about the refresh being done differently if it was done more frequently. Don't put that thought in the bank though.
    23 Jun 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: I see you posted the 23rd and I managed to notice the posts this A.M. even though SA never flagged them as new comments.

     

    Off to peruse the PDF.

     

    Thanks for both posts!
    HardToLove
    25 Jun 2013, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    NYT article on GE using data analysis on a massive scale in manufacturing and operations. You'd think it's a paid ad from the way the author gushes about what the company is doing. Still, it is very, very cool.

     

    http://nyti.ms/14q6d92

     

    The three para blurb below exemplifies:

     

    "Each wind tower feeds data into the system 400 times a second. In turn, its blades are adjusted for demand from the grid, what the other towers on the wind farm are doing and the power supply coming from conventional turbines. Two years from now, the turbines will feature lasers that sense the wind 100 meters out, adjusting their blades for the next gust. In the last year, G.E. became the world’s top seller of wind turbines thanks to the data technology.

     

    Because wind is fickle, the energy goes to batteries that feed power to the grid when the data says to. Those batteries are made with a new kind of nickel-salt composite, in full commercial use for less than a year, that is created next door to the wind center. The factory has just 250 hourly workers and 10,000 sensors, reading information four times a second. Each cell in every battery has its own history of the people, chemicals and processes contributing to its creation.

     

    Six months ago, the $170 million factory had a reject rate from poorly made products of 22 percent, among the world’s lowest for this kind of technology. Normally it takes years to get that yield from a new material. Using Big Data, the company has also expanded the diameter of its wind turbines by 23 percent using cheaper materials, testing the machines under 300 different situations."

     

    Note that lasers sensing the wind 100 meters out is about 10 seconds lead time if the wind is 20mph. That is a meaningful step in reducing how much storage, especially quick reacting storage you need to smooth the variability of the grid. I think but don't know that this is complementary to GE's Durathon batteries which I believe are more energy batteries than power batteries aren't quick reacting.

     

    I'm certain there will be a place for the quick reacting PbC battery in many, many applications, but it'll be competing with a whole range of substitute technologies like lasers that can track wind strength ten seconds in advance.

     

    BTW, I always thought that GE would be smart to acquire Axion. Want to take over a big chunk of the profits of the lead acid battery industry without touching the lead? Think what the dynamics between the battery companies, the auto companies and Axion would be if Axion were backed by GE or Siemens?

     

    The two most likely reasons this hasn't happened in my view are first, the technology isn't as good as we think or second, Axion hasn't been for sale at a "reasonable" price. Obviously, I wouldn't be here unless I thought the latter is the correct answer.
    23 Jun 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4885) | Send Message
     
    GE is an interesting story now, I took a small stake in it on this pullback last week. Immelt is slowly getting this giant back on track.

     

    Their battery choice always intrigued me, IMO GE will be a fierce competitor in grid storage for just the reasons above. PbC probably won't compete in grid storage for these large projects. AXPW needs to develop a mkt. for the PC where load leveling constantly is a need.
    If they do this, a buyout might make sense. Always remember that the big USA global corps need things that move the needle as in billions of $$ in sales globally not millions. And GE has enough EPA problems as it is, so anything "lead" is probably out, even if not direct but just associated with it.
    PbC has to find markets & apps where constant rapid charge/discharge is the need, not big storage apps.
    23 Jun 2013, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4885) | Send Message
     
    While on this topic, I sorta expect companies to adopt to Rosewater's plan of matching batteries with the need of the app.

     

    Take ZBB, they could design their own PC and use AXPW PbC's in it and use it to grow their business. It could sorta be a natural fit and a few million $$ would move their needle at this point.

     

    If there is a buyout, with the exception of a big auto/truck supplier the buyout could come from a smaller company.

     

    Question: if AXPW can't get a big deal that is tied to a cash infusion soon, and next spring they have to offer that other 100 million shares,
    What is the odds of them just licensing the tech to auto instead of spending the money to build out mfg. ? (to me this may be more likely as time goes on, I am interested in other takes on this) A bird in the hand to stop the bleeding while developing more niche products like the PC & ePower might make more sense.
    23 Jun 2013, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure BMW's battery partner will want to license.

     

    Here's a quick story about a startup I'm well familiar with and its dealings with its first big customer. Different industry and technology, but like Axion's electrodes, the core component of a larger product. After several years of testing and much suffering on the startups side, they spent quite a while negotiating sales terms. Then, basically at the last minute the big company decided it wanted to license. Now, in this case, the license wasn't really intended to access the technology itself. It was more of a way to justify reducing the cost by taking over the management of the supply chain. The profit margin at maturity ended up being cut 2/3 to 3/4 by the licensing deal which did suck. The good news was that they no longer had to screw around with financing production and didn't have to worry about fluctuations in volume. Also, while the number was smaller, there is still plenty to fund the company's future business development. The price was the first and currently largest market for their technology, U.S. only.

     

    Like advanced batteries, this is an emerging technology that will experience tremendous growth over the coming decade. My friend has secured the survival of his company for the short term, and given himself enough runway to see his second generation of prospects to conclusion and provided funding for continuing evolution of his product.

     

    So, even if the BMW deal gets done, I think it's likely the deal won't look like most of you are expecting. It Axion survives as a independent company and no longer needs survival capital, that might be good enough.
    23 Jun 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    My preferred embodiment for partners has always been to build an electrode facility to supply a specific manufacturing plant that will service a specific market, like automotive for example, and have the electrode facility owned by a joint venture where the manufacturing plant owner puts up the lion's share (all) of the required capital and Axion takes a reasonable profit share for managing the technology aspects.

     

    The nice thing about owning a technology is that rights can be sliced and diced any number of ways by limiting a partner to a particular plant or geographic region, and potentially limiting a partner to a particular application class.

     

    That makes it possible to have companies A and B as automotive partners in a region, companies C and D as stationary and industrial partners for the region, and companies E and F as partners in heavy transport (trucking and rail) worldwide.

     

    If we accept the idea that Axion itself doesn't have the in-house talent to qualify as a first tier supplier to an automotive OEM, then it follows that the 'sole source' issue won't be resolved until Axion has entered into partnerships with at least two companies that will qualify as first tier suppliers for a region. My sincere hope is that Axion will ultimately have several regional partnerships in each of its principal application niches.
    23 Jun 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • LASF
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I agree time is of the essence here. The Co. should not try to go for a home run with this deal; just get something that will assure survival and allow it to get out of this PIPE with as little damage as possible. My concern is not so much whteher the company survives, but, wtih all the cheap shares coming in, who will benefit from its eventual success.
    23 Jun 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1695) | Send Message
     
    I think it bears repeating that even if the PIPE issues all approved shares to be issued, at today's price that is still a huge win for all if we do sign up big auto. With a 20m market cap, even if there are 100% new shares, that means we only need a 40m market cap shares to be worth today's price. But what would you assign to a company with assured viability and a first tier partner? 100-200m I'd think. The PIPE fears are really overdone and only short term thinking.
    23 Jun 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17774) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: "The PIPE fears are really overdone and only short term thinking".

     

    In isolation, yes. Combined with prior expectations, reasonable or not, based on both company statements in various milieu that didn't materialize in the time expected, some not expected materialize at all now, and those remaining to materialize having a big question mark on both their timing and whether they will ever materialize ...

     

    When one considers all those, it is not short-term thinking, but long-term thinking applying past performance to future expectations.

     

    Certainly reasonable, IMO.

     

    Then we throw in the effects of the financing on outstanding shares, at what price many of those shares will have been acquired and one could easily see a difficulty in realizing any of the target prices that may have been envisioned in days past as these cheap shares in financially-oriented holders' hands will certainly weigh on the market as price *tries* to rise.

     

    Nothing short-term about all that at all. It is, rather, "holistic".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    EDIT: Add in that the DOE and others still promote Lithium-based solutions willy-nilly and the pigs at the government troughs are getting their share of the pie as time passes ... opportunities might not be there any more.
    23 Jun 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    JP, Yes, I agree with you on the geography and industry segmentation point. My friend is working it the exact same way.

     

    Where I think we differ, is that in the situation you describe, Axion and the battery partner would be splitting the gross margin, which if 40% would represent 20% to Axion. I'm thinking Axion would end up with a proportion that looks more like a royalty or licensing fee (5%), presumably for the entire battery, which could turn out to be $15/per battery.

     

    However, even if I am right on that, things can still turn out fine for Axion. Say in two years BMW launches the PbC on a model that sells 100,000 units in model year 2016, that's $1.5m (at 100% margin) to Axion. Projecting the other projects a bit (ePower $3m in 2015 revenue, $3m for NS, and the same for all others) that'd get the company pretty close to break-even and presumably it'd be off to the races in future years.

     

    As part of the deal, presumably, there would be some up-front payment for Axion (say $10m for 10-20% of Axion) that would be divided between BMW and the battery partners. That'd buy Axion one of those two years and likely provide the validation needed to get sales moving and to raise some further capital at prices we would consider reasonable.

     

    After the dust settles on all that, BMW and the battery partners would make out like bandits and Axion would have roughly 250 million shares outstanding at that point at a market cap probably at $100m+ from signing the agreement in early 2014 to the $200-250m range by mid 2015 when the cars are about to hit the road. It would no longer have to worry about its survival and would be in a position of strength when negotiating all contracts beyond the BMW, NS, ePower, and say one other like UPS or Freightliner. Only BMW would likely be a factor outside the US.

     

    When I first invested in Axion a few years ago, I would have considered this timeline, the shares outstanding, and the revenue and profit estimates to be disappointing. However, at this point, it's looking awfully good to me.

     

    While the risk/reward on my cost basis is no longer there, I do think the stock is well worth the risk at its current price. That keeps me from selling now and has a good chance of making the new investors in Axion very happy.
    23 Jun 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    I see far too many possibilities to wed myself to a particular outcome

     

    While I love mailbox money from reputable partners, I'm not convinced that it's the best way to grow a thriving business. I know for a fact that it's a great way to lose control over your IP and I seem to recall that IP protection was always a prickly point with Tom.
    23 Jun 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    APM, When I look at the monies you're talking about in your timing, I have to wonder why if this level of scenario is playing out wouldn't someone just come in and try to take Axion out. First off, if BMW starts out with 100k units, which is an OK assumption, you know they are not launching this thing to stay at such a low volume. So if we were talking about Axion making 1.5 million off initial sales and them paying 10 million for a 20% stake. Well now it starts looking like a hostile take over makes more sense. After all a very large percentage of the stock is now controlled by owners the 20-30 cent range.

     

    BTW, My gut feeling is that automotive will not pay these types or margins. Automotive throws pennies around like M1 tanks.
    23 Jun 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (521) | Send Message
     
    Couple of thing iindelco. First, yes, I would think that Axion might now be vulnerable to a hostile takeover as the loyal founding investors control a shrinking portion of the pie and a larger portion is controlled by owners who got in at a very low price (retail investors and more importantly Maxim investors).

     

    As far as the potential deal I described goes, isn't that pretty small potatoes? I'm pretty shocked that you consider a 5% royalty to be a margin that automotive wouldn't tolerate. After all, their typical battery supplier makes a 25% margin on commodity products. JP is on the other side saying that half of a 40% margin is more what Axion should hold out for.
    23 Jun 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9325) | Send Message
     
    APM, Thanks for your thoughts.

     

    We'll wait and see on this one. All I know is that Axion is not negotiating from a position of strength. I'd accept some pretty low returns for a good chunk of automotive just to get out of the quicksand. A little stability to eventually enter other more lucrative markets without giving away huge chunks of earlier investor interests would be nice.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >Anyone ... Intriguing thought, this hostile takeover. I don't think it very likely unless someone out there was as enthusiastic about the PbC as most here are, but anything is possible. Having never been near such a thing I just have to ask.

     

    What would it mean to us, the common shareholders, other than new management?
    24 Jun 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30044) | Send Message
     
    I think a hostile takeover would be almost impossible because the entire float has moved from concentrated blocks to retail over the last three years and while we only have 252 followers of the Concentrators, I'd bet dollars to donuts that the total number of retail holders is 10x to 15x that value.
    24 Jun 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4557) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I agree. I don't see it happening. I just ask out of curiosity because I don't know what a shareholder goes through in such a scenario.
    24 Jun 2013, 02:05 PM