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  • Axion Power Concentrator 246: June 25: Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For EPower 351 comments
    Jun 25, 2013 4:13 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For ePower

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

    Excerpts from the First Quarter 10-Q --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits - long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization - create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 06/22/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 6/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (351)
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  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    RAISE CASH AND BUY AXPW
    25 Jun 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Buy buy
    25 Jun 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • mggalla
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    no, wait 'till it's at 0.01
    26 Jun 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Another one.

     

    I just noticed the Yahoo board uses a lot of terms thrown around here, like "big uglies."

     

    Let's get banning.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Let's assume there are 1,500 - 2000 Axionistas who still believe.

     

    Is that a number large enuff to scarf up the flooding shares over the next year? If not, what price would assure they would/could?

     

    My new fishing boat is hanging in the balance here, folks. At my age it is very unlikely I'll get another shot.

     

    But I'm still pulling the trigger.

     

    Just that the bullets are so small. :>)

     

    Had to move this sucker over here.

     

    I know Ranma & Poul are bailing me out here . . . . . :>)
    25 Jun 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    I would want to hear something of substance from the management (new/old) before I would consider a larger investment (but will nibble if my number is met)...
    25 Jun 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    I'll make that three of us. I'm going to resolve to put in another 3-4% in dollar terms at the present price and then another 1-2% every month the current pricing trend lasts. Dollar-cost averaging after a down-round.

     

    This is not to indicate that my confidence in Tom Granville has been restored. A sub $25m market cap for a company with Axion's technology is just silly.
    25 Jun 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    IMO, the upcoming decision on SBIR phase II grant awards must be positive for Axion to even consider retaining Granville and Dantam in their executive positions.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    In case you've forgotten, Granville and Dantam both signed new employment agreements a couple months ago and there is no way that the board can or would hold individuals accountable for a decision making process that's completely and absolutely beyond their control.

     

    We're all impatient, but it's far too early to be calling for Madame le Guillotine.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Off with their pinkies I say!
    -
    Here's a document from December last year that has some interesting points on European SS. Some historic info. and lot's of other goodies.

     

    http://bit.ly/11YPSFe

     

    Edit: On page 9. You can't make this s*&t up. :))

     

    "A fully charged battery is all the more important during
    the colder periods for vehicles with start/stop systems. It is
    thus recommended that batteries are charged each time the
    vehicle is in the workshop."
    25 Jun 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    I'm very much aware of new employment (golden parachute) agreements were awarded to Granville and Dantam. Granville's employment contract had expired and Dantam's had another two years to run when he was awarded a new agreement with a three year term (along with a $15K annual bonus). And, the board can certainly hold individuals accountable for poor judgment (which Granville has displayed repeatedly) and non-performance (what has Dantam produced in the seventeen months he has been on board)!

     

    25 Jun 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Parachutes are only useful to those who are exiting a plane. The employment agreements don't have any golden parachute provisions, although they do require a severance payment equal to six months salary.

     

    I don't know what you think executives of public companies ought to be paid, but I'll tell you first hand that Axion would have a damned hard time hiring me on the terms it squeezed out of Tom and Vani.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    The exec team is/was more than fairly compensated in cash terms, they did not IMO merit any more cash at the last negotiation of their contracts. What the board needed to do was incentivize these guys by offering them copious options that have a cat in hell's chance of being in the money if the company scores a design win (e.g. 75c). I'd prefer to see much more of an 'if they win we all win' dynamic. At the minute the only ones gaining anything from this soap opera are the executives, regardless of how the rest of us make out.
    25 Jun 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The June 15th short interest was just published – 1,187,574 shares, up 45% from 821,067 shares on May 31st. I still don't have a pet theory about what the numbers mean, but I hate to see that kind of growth rate in the short interest.

     

    I agree with APMarshall that a sub $25 million market cap is insane for a company at Axion's stage in the development cycle. Hells bells, private companies at a similar stage in the development process are typically valued in the $75 to $100 million range, but fear is a funny thing I guess.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I agree the valuation is insane. A private company often has funding investors ... meaning people that support the developing company and wait on appreciation. Mr. Granville just spent the better part of a year looking for such people and, apparently, found none. In my opinion, the battery has proved itself enough to attract some speculative steady money but there are only vultures sitting on that front gate.

     

    I'm not out of ammo. There's just nothing to shoot at.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    John: "I still don't have a pet theory about what the numbers mean, but I hate to see that kind of growth rate in the short interest".

     

    I'm somewhat less concerned about this change, but only because the circumstances surrounding it prevent drawing semi-firm conclusions.

     

    First, it's only 366,507 increase. In isolation the number would be concerning. But like the 171,561 of May 15, the short interest in the three prior days around the close of the period could account for this with the short interest of the last trading day alone and just a few shares from the prior two days before end of period: 6/12-6/14 daily shorts in thousands, 107.14, 158.51 and 310.28. There could also be some "slippage" from days before the T+3 period as we've had consistently higher daily shorts for some time now: 6/6-6/11 daily shorts in thousands: 192.60, 131.80, 246.51 and 309.20.

     

    The 5/31 821,067 quantity is more concerning to me because, as I commented at the time, it could not be explained even if every short share in the last three days of that reporting period failed to settle.

     

    *That* indicated something had changed, along with a recurrence of a small fails to deliver quantity for the periods ... ~41K IIRC.

     

    If or when we see the last few days of the reporting period with small daily shorts again, or increases that exceed the daily short for the last three days of the period, and/or continued occurrences of noticeable quantities of fails, we may be able to draw some firmer conclusions.

     

    For now, I take the 800K+ and fails as the only firm indications of ...
    http://bit.ly/11G2NR0

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jun 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    HTL, It's TG cuz' it rhymes. Oh he's trouble.

     

    http://bit.ly/148rN2V
    25 Jun 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    "The June 15th short interest was just published – 1,187,574 shares, up 45% from 821,067 shares on May 31st. I still don't have a pet theory about what the numbers mean, but I hate to see that kind of growth rate in the short interest."

     

    My pet theory is that all the people who were invested in Tesla in the $25 range are taking the profits they made from seeing their stock value go up four fold and are using the money to short Axion just to stick it to us.
    As for the value, aren't we basically at book value at this point?
    25 Jun 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I suppose that's as good a theory as any.

     

    Axion's book value is probably in the $7 million range, or about $0.07 a share.
    25 Jun 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I think the PIPE impact has a far higher probability of being responsible for what we are seeing. But I will admit that John's educational interests could well have an outside possibility of being at fault. ;))

     

    John, Three "Hail Mary's" and we'll be free and clear of this. Or I can get the ruler out!
    25 Jun 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    The only puzzling part to me is how they are getting the borrow. Other than that I'd think PIPE shorting would be a nice spectator sport for hedgies and their ilk. Hell, maybe they don't even bother with a "borrow". Hopefully you can help clear up these muddy waters for us and we can start fishing again.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The puzzling thing to me arises from the question of share borrowing. Axion stock in retail accounts can't be loaned to short sellers and naked shorts quickly lead to untenable fails to deliver. It's possible that the PIPE investors are going "short against the box," but it's hard to see how that would be more beneficial to them than simply emptying the box on a monthly basis. A third possibility, I suppose, is that the PIPE investors are loaning their shares to short sellers, but it's hard to see how that would be more profitable to them. For now, color me perplexed.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I think a lot of the behavior we see in AXPW was highly predictable before the PIPE deal, and the reason so many of us were opposed to such a deal involving share flippers in the first place. TG stated in the last conference call that financing conditions were tough out there, and that was the best deal he could secure for Axion, but I continue to believe the financing was dealt with as a last minute issue, and this was part of the problem. At the same time, I am not sure who would have given the money on more generous terms!
    26 Jun 2013, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Lol! Good one. Started my day right.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jun 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    DRich said "Mr. Granville just spent the better part of a year looking for such people and, apparently, found none."

     

    Very true and this is an amazing fact. Given that he couldn't find any such investors why not have Axion just sell shares directly. At least they could control how the shares are released and wouldn't have to pay the fees, interests, and warrants associated with the current financing deal.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg,

     

    My understanding is that the only people who were interested in a straight equity issuance wanted to buy a major piece of Axion for peanuts, so TG just said NO...
    26 Jun 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Here is an opinion on the issue
    http://miniurl.com/df0x .

     

    My opinion is that the DTCC is a black box and the players are not afraid of the referees, so they will normally exploit the rules.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    It's not really a black box because penny stocks cannot ordinarily be deposited in Type 2 accounts - margin accounts. Unless the stock is held in a margin account, the broker can't lend it out to short sellers. That's the reason I'm feeling perplexed right now.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Amouna,

     

    I meant sold to the public, which is what is happening anyway.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    JP - my AXPW is in a margin account. Did you mean something different?
    26 Jun 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    I also have some in both cash and margin accounts.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jun 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    You both might want to check with your brokers to see whether they segregate Type 1 and Type 2 shares. Back in the day, stocks like Axion could not be used for margin credit which meant they could not be loaned out by the broker without your consent. All my accounts were segregated at the broker level to reflect the Type 1 or Type 2 status of the underlying shares.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    JP - I thot any stock including penny stocks can be held in margin accounts, even designated marginal (or not marginal) holdings: for margin purposes such penny stocks may not be assigned any useable marginal value (100%), hence, are basically unusable by the account holder, but that does not mean the brokerage firm cannot do whatever it wishes, legally or not, regarding loaning those shares, or even participating in naked shorting practices, if they can get away with it.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    "but that does not mean the brokerage firm cannot do whatever it wishes, legally or not, regarding loaning those shares, or even participating in naked shorting practices, if they can get away with it."

     

    Exactly, who will hold them to account. Rarely the SEC ... only a wiley Plaintiff's lawyer that can figure out how to get hands on sufficient info to prove something.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    FINRA audits all of its members on a regular basis and immediately begins disciplinary proceedings or worse against brokers who violate the rules. When naked shorting happened it almost always came from offshore because US brokerage firms don't engage in that kind of BS. Now that the short selling rules have real teeth in the form of Regulation SHO, the things investors fear most are quite impossible.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    So what you want to do is buy all those naked shorts or unborrowed shares so that when future attempts to cover by buying stock that does not exist, a real scramble occurs; this may work as long as additional supply of stock is not becoming available. But, best I understand, additional stock will be coming available for the next year or so.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    I really liked the shorting "uptick rule"; it did much towards self-regulation and policing without another bunch of folks having to watch the mice play when the cat was gone or busy.

     

    We instituted the uptick rule for good reason some 60-70 years ago. Since then, greed won out.

     

    Who likes to fight with their hands tied without any rope? Those that really have the freedom to use their hands whenever they want to do so, rules or not.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Right after I sold my shares at 19.8 cents I called TD Ameritrade and asked if I could short AXPW, since I thought once the rebound to 20 cents didn't hold, we were headed down big time. They said they don't have any shares available to borrow, and that they don't have relationships with other brokers that would allow them to borrow any shares available there, either.

     

    Darn. Could have been up 25% in just two weeks.

     

    I wasn't surprised that TD Amer didn't have any shares to borrow, but what have you guys found that use other brokers? Any of them have shares available?
    26 Jun 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Shares cannot be borrowed unless they're in a Type 2 margin account with an outstanding debit balance. Shares that are not approved for margin accounts by the Federal Reserve can't be deposited in Type 2 accounts. That's the long and the short of it.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "Shares cannot be borrowed unless they're in a Type 2 margin account with an outstanding debit balance. Shares that are not approved for margin accounts by the Federal Reserve can't be deposited in Type 2 accounts. That's the long and the short of it."

     

    I believe you! but I don't know if anyone besides us cares...
    26 Jun 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Broker-dealers that are hit with unscheduled FINRA audits on a regular and recurring basis care very deeply. If you don't believe me, go out and try to borrow shares so that you can do a short sale.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    I am a nobody and would be promptly ignored. Doesn't mean that isn't being done. Sorry, I don't have much confidence in the system. I just wish the beat cop would take a stroll down our street...
    26 Jun 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone!!!

     

    My shares are not to lend or sell. I care for nothing and tomorrow will be another day.

     

    Saludos-Carlos

     

    26 Jun 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if it still occurs, but before Reg SHO brokerages "mismarked" short sales all the time.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    I've also seen stocks consistently flagged for Reg SHO fails to deliver, over a period of a year. Nothing done about it.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    " A sub $25m market cap for a company with Axion's technology is just silly."

     

    ROTFL

     

    That's not simply kinda....... it's absolutely the way I "feel". Regrettably however my ammo belt is near MT.

     

    I hope the other Axionistas have bigger . . . . . magazines.

     

    a'hem.

     

    HTL can pretend otherwise but I think he's a secret heavy hitter. In the phone booth right now getting into his outfit with the cape and big ol' S on the front.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    This just in: AXPW's short interest at June 14 was 1,187,574 shares, an increase of 366,507 shares from the May 31 total of 821,067 shares, or 45%, and a giant leap from essentially zero before the PIPE deal.
    25 Jun 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Ugh, looks like you were right Mr. I. Some games being played here. Question is, what's our best strategy here? Bail, hold, buy more? Pretty soon I'm about to reach another 100k shares I didn't plan on owning.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    SUCKUP ALERT ! SUCKUP ALERT !

     

    Since finding this Dr. Watson & What's-His-Name sponsored Axion board I've wandered through SA looking for similar versions.

     

    What a sorry collection of pretenders compared to you guys !

     

    This is without exception the greatest board I've ever been on. Intelligent, reasonable, and civilized contradiction galore. I've learned a boatload here.

     

    You folks are the best. I'm humbled.

     

    I now return to my normal state of arrogance. :>)
    25 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood, I appreciate your contributions. :-)
    25 Jun 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I went back to the sidelines. I exepected some sort of game but when we came out of the dugout they were putting the tarp back on the field and shutting down the concession stands. Watching my money evaporate with out a whimper was to much for me to bear.
    25 Jun 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Bang I don't how how you and Mr. I do it. I'd think going in and out of Axion can be costly. I'd think people should be buying down here instead of selling but what do I know.

     

    The elephant must be eaten and that's tough when nobody will do anymore chewing. Hopefully, JP can rally our appetites like the good ole days.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Collins
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Bangwhiz, if you believe in the future of the company and its product, you shouldn't be worrying so much about the price declining in the short term. Of course it's frustrating to watch the stock price fall on a daily basis, but what is important is to keep a long term view of where Axion is ultimately headed.

     

    If Axion is successful with their product, and they should be, the market will recognize that. Eventually. In the mean time, shares in a great opportunity are selling at fire sale prices. This is a time to be buying, not selling.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    These hard times can use a good encouraging story.

     

    Check out the chart of Vonage: http://yhoo.it/148sMjN;range=5y;compare=;ind...

     

    Look at when it was pennies in 2009. The left hand side of that looks a lot like AXPW doesn't it. But it took some summer news and it jumped from there into the 1's and grew up to 5 following some revenue successes.

     

    The same would happen here should we get the news we are looking for this summer. Strong chances BMW deal will be complete by then.
    25 Jun 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    "Strong chances BMW deal will be complete by then"

     

    Ranma,

     

    We certainly all hope a deal is closed with BMW way before the end of summer. It is the only thing keeping us in the game at this stage and frankly, if this business relationship doesn't move ahead to its natural conclusion (a distribution agreement), then I am afraid it is only fair to say that current management needs to be replaced :(
    26 Jun 2013, 05:19 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Same-Same Priceline. Really crappy numbers finally take off.

     

    But a I think a better comparison is Intuitive Surgical. Holder of revolutionary technology. But doctors wouldn't bite.

     

    When they finally did however ......
    26 Jun 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    Am I correct that when the short expires the shares represented HAVE to be bought to cover? Wouldn't that force the price up if the price had stopped falling and the people that had already bought were not in a selling mood? Wouldn't it force the price up FAST?
    25 Jun 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: "short expires the shares represented HAVE to be bought to cover?"

     

    AFAIK, there's no expiration on shorts. I've not dug deeply into this, but I think that margin calls and fails to deliver are the only things that force a "buy-in".

     

    If the shorters happen to be in a large short position when a price run-up begins, that's when they're in trouble if their margin is insufficient. They also risk unlimited (theoretically) losses if they stay short or go even shorter.

     

    This is what folks see as a "short squeeze" - shorters madly buying (buy to cover) at ever-higher prices trying to reduce their potential loss.

     

    Again, not fully informed on this aspect.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jun 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    What is it about this video that reminds me of my experience with Axion stock? http://bit.ly/12ott3Z
    25 Jun 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Well at least now Bang, you'll be able to take the summer off after your recent sell. Don't make a stranger out of yourself. We'd miss ya! :)
    25 Jun 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    I'll keep up with the search feature and see what happens next. When I last posted I had bought AXPW again I said if I lost my money so be it. Easier saying than doing. Down 18% in roughly 12 days is just insane. Slowly bleeding to death is probably bearable, but putting up with your jugular vein slashed in half is something else. It appears the stock price and Axion's actual business circumstances are completely disconnected.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >bangwhiz ... What we're seeing is the stock looking for a fair value. It will eventually find one someday. I'm sure Axion had some idea of what these "investors" were all about and what the future held for the company valuation & share price. Whatever value it finally settles upon will be just fine with Axion.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The shark video was very instructive Bang, but not in the way you think.

     

    David Gelbaum paid $2.10 a share for his Axion stock and was forced to sell it to Axionistas in the $0.50 range.

     

    Most of the other big uglies bought at $0.57 and sold at a loss.

     

    All of the eating was done by Axionistas and the bulk of the blood in the water came from the big uglies veins.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Why is everybody so upset? At the rate the stock is falling, any one of us could buy the whole company in about two weeks and one day, according to my calculations.. I'm saving up for it. I plan to be a kind and benevolent boss.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    I feel all of your(plural) pain. I threw in another paltry 10% yesterday and was rewarded by additional losses. Admittedly, I have no clue where the bottom is, and even less as to why we're still on the inexorable downhill slope.
    Can someone state in simple terms, for the dummies like me, why this recent financing is thought to be related to the swoon? Purely because more shares have been created?

     

    I can understand the lack of news, lack of substantial orders, almost complete lack of information on which to hang some sort of value. It that all it takes to make a penny stock?
    26 Jun 2013, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    The theory is that the "new" investors are selling as quick as they get shares and that is overwhelming the buyside for this stock. We had hoped that they would be holding for large gains but since they get their shares at a discount to market they can have a guaranteed arbitrage as soon as shares hit their account. It's a sad state of affairs and maybe it's not even accurate but it is a "theory" that may explain the swoon. Or maybe many Axionistas have given up the goose =(
    26 Jun 2013, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    By the time Axion finds value, Li-air will be the flavour of the day, Axion will have been bought lock stock and barrel by a Chinese conglomerate for $2m, and my Uncle will grow a set of breasts and become my Auntie !

     

    http://bit.ly/14wt5Ux
    26 Jun 2013, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I heard the head of lithium ion battery research at Oak Ridge National Lab discuss lithium air last years - his summary was that there are only three problems with it - the anode, cathode and electrolyte...Wouldn't hold your breath on that one.

     

    The challenge facing electrification initiatives is actually the burgeoning efficiency of the ICE - every improvement made there steals the benefits of electrification. And with 'the pause' beginning to impact on regulatory pressure, whole of life CO2 analyses revealing that advanced ICEs have similar co2 profiles as EVs and most importantly, that consumers are resisting adopting EVs, history will show that Axion is absolutely in the right place at the right time. But getting into the automotive supply chain is about as tough as it gets in business...it's just going to take time, and the rest of the battery industry has finally woken up to this being "the" market for the foreseeable future.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:47 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    Festein
    Li Air exists because there is a desire to have an even more impractical technology than H2.

     

    So far EV's whole of life CO2 emissions are improving at a similar rate as ICE vehicles, Currently these improvements are driven by drivetrain improvements (ie check out the efficiency increase from a 2012 LEAF to a 2013 LEAF). Improving the aero drag of a LEAF to be comparable to Tesla could be worth another 20%, and thats substantially a styling change. Ie a Tesla has same rating for city and highway cycle, Nissan LEAF's highway cycle is about 30% less than its city cycle. http://1.usa.gov/17fwI3f

     

    Later variants of Mn based cathodes (Li-rich layered cathode materials xLi2MnO3.(1-x)LiMO2) will have about twice the active Li ions as today's automotive cathodes and work at higher voltages, leading to a 2-3 increase in range and a cell level 50% decrease in price and CO2 emissions.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    People who participate in this forum know better than to believe fairy tales about lithium-ion batteries getting better and cheaper at the same time. It's not going to happen.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Deamiter
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
     
    Hey now JP -- the engineer in me doth protest that they are both becoming cheaper AND better (higher capacity)... by only about 2% per year now, but that's still progress!

     

    :-P

     

    I'm super excited for the next major breakthrough battery chemistry to revolutionize energy storage. Unfortunately, I expect to remain super excited for the next major breakthrough for the next few decades.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • renim
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    Which bit do you disagree with for the following,

     

    'Later variants of Mn based cathodes (Li-rich layered cathode materials xLi2MnO3.(1-x)LiMO2) will have about twice the active Li ions as today's automotive cathodes and work at higher voltages, leading to a 2-3 increase in range and a cell level 50% decrease in price and CO2 emissions.'

     

    Festein didn't give a date, just an indication of progress.
    I supplied examples of current and continuing improvements in BEVs that are independent to Battery tech and capable of matching improvements in ICE/HEV for the mid term.

     

    Beyond the mid term xLi2MnO3.(1-x)LiMO2 will come into play and significantly alter the battery landscape. But even sticking with current chemistries for automotive batteries...

     

    http://bit.ly/15Fq6bm

     

    Vor drei Jahren lagen die Preise pro Kilowattstunde noch bei 500 Euro“, so Stadler, „jetzt sind es rund 200 Euro. Und ich gehe davon aus, dass das nicht das Ende ist.“ Die jetzt erreichten Batteriepreise haben Experten bislang für den Zeitraum nach 2020 vorausgesagt.

     

    "Three years ago, the price per kilowatt hour were still at 500 euros," said Stadler, "now there are around 200 euros. And I'm assuming that this is not the end. "The prices have now reached battery experts have been predicted for the period after 2020.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Current prices are indicative of massive surplus capacity in the battery industry. All major manufacturers are losing their shirts selling batteries at those prices. There are only two possible outcomes. Demand will increase to a point where the overcapacity is eliminated and manufacturers can charge a fair price for their products or capacity will be converted to homeless shelters for unemployed manufacturing staff and prices will increase to a point where the survivors earn a fair profit.

     

    Until you can point to battery manufacturers that are earning reasonable profits at a price point, the price point is meaningless. Battery manufacturers cannot sell their products at a loss in order to make EVs viable.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    renim, one of the main risks to AXPW will continue to be the threat of the li-ion competition selling below cost. This is a form of "they can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Since time is of the essence for Axion's share count, the li-ion manufacturers don't have to keep doing it for much longer to dramatically affect AXPW.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Just come back from talking to an OEM insider, and their best assessment is that OEMs are losing $20,000 per ev/PHEV they sell. And that doesn't include the losses being taken by the battery suppliers - the ev space is so incredibly far from being a sustainable business - if it weren't for the CARB requirements, they would not be going down this path.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Festein, I hope you weren't surprised by the number. But this is not unusual for vehicles that don't pan out. Even less unusual when there are built in cost reduction leaps of faith built into the business cases. I'm sure Toyota lost tons of money on the Prius for years but it eventually made sense. Not sure the PHEV and EV suppliers will have such good fortune based on what I can see in technology advancements coming. Plus they were all looking to jump into a crowded market which was not the case for Toyota and the Prius.

     

    This is what happens when you have regulators trying to force technology without knowing what can be technically or economically feasible. Not to mention all the harm they are doing to technologies that could be contributing in their areas of interest because of the distraction.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7607) | Send Message
     
    "People who participate in this forum know better than to believe fairy tales about lithium-ion batteries getting better and cheaper at the same time. It's not going to happen."

     

    In fact it's exactly what has been happening with lithium ion batteries from the beginning. I'm not sure why people participating in this forum would not believe in reality.
    27 Jun 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    Holders across the market as a whole have been dumping speculative stocks ever since Bernanke put the fear of free market capitalism in them last week.

     

    If you think AXPW is going lower, you can sell and try to catch the falling knife, which is very risky because it can turn on a dime. Or, if you still believe in the company, you can hold.

     

    Selling at these levels, unless you think it's going lower and believe you're clever enough to buy back lower, or you figure Axion is giving up the ghost, is very foolish.

     

    Buying here makes sense if you think we're at the bottom and you think the stock will go up again sometime soon.

     

    My sentiment is hold. The market is unstable, and I have no need to own more or less Axion than I do today.

     

    My own opinion.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    At 10 cents or below, I will have a feast of Axion shares to lower my initial costs!
    26 Jun 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    billa, same here.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    It is SOP for professional investors and disciplined hobbyists to have a rule whereby they sell after some percentage decline. In my experience, they all have horror stories to tell from previous, undisciplined lives about digging in their heels and catching falling knives until they got driven into the ground and well, stabbed.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    More some day stuff.

     

    Sulphur back in vogue for batteries

     

    "Nonetheless, sulphur is edging ahead of other futuristic battery designs, such as the high-energy-density lithium–air battery — in which lithium ions bind to oxygen sucked in from the atmosphere. There, the ions are hard to recover for recharging and tend to be poisoned by other atmospheric gases."

     

    http://bit.ly/10UqpTj
    26 Jun 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    Im going to call Axion today and try to get some answers. They need to come out and tell the investment community that Axion is a great opportunity, a once in a lifetime tenbagger. They need to brag more :)
    26 Jun 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Good luck with that...:)
    26 Jun 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    A lot of frustration here with the stock price dropping every day.

     

    IMO, you will see announcements in the next few months maybe starting in July. The grant, maybe a partner, etc. The reality is that investors do not see the potential that axionista's do. Therefore, the stock keeps going lower until as someone stated earlier, "it finds it value" and IMO that could be .10 or lower without news.

     

    The most important thing to realize is the ability to now fully automate the carbon sheeting process. This one thing is IMO what has kept adoption from beginning, made the price too high compared to competition, and probably many other things such as too much testing. In short they did not have a commercial mass market product, only test batteries. Also was a tremendous drain on cash and personnel resources.
    Now that that is solved take a look at what has developed in the past months:
    - BMW introducing them to suppliers (mfg. partner)
    - Maybe going to get into an auto production model
    - ePower realtionship maybe leading to Cummins

     

    So I think things begin to change sooner than later, but definitely not saying the stock price responds as much as we hope because cash drain is still there and revenues are not instant unless AXPW gets a cash infusion. I am sure mgt. is most aware of this.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    LT, I agree with you. At this time, Axion is firmly in the hands of the sharks and are on their way to 200M shares outstanding. (Ironically, where my initial analysis put Axion's share count before they were producing commercial product.)

     

    It would appear the best thing that could happen would be an upfront cash infusion from the BMW partner to stop the bleeding and allow Axion to get to breakeven until it can finish developing some of its other programs.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    If I'm that prospective partner, I drag discussions and negotiations out as long as possible, so I can get the best terms possible. BMW presumably has deadlines, but I'd be pushing right up to those. Everyone can smell the blood in the water.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I - no disagreement here.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    Lead carbon batteries the next step for micro-hybrid vehicles?
    source: GreenCarReports
    http://bit.ly/18fU8c0
    26 Jun 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >D Lane ... ALBAC has been issuing this exact same PR for ... what (?) ... 4 years now. I do believe LAB will be a contender and my bet is on Axion. ALBAC has not made any real forward progress with the Carbon paste AGM battery technology. All the real gains here have been in the mechanical & electronic systems more efficiently using the battery. Their solution has been showing weakness in application yet it is the only price-point solution available to throw against Li-on & NiMH.

     

    I've often wondered if one of the big things holding back application development of PbC electrodes from Axion is the lack of competition. If there was a marginally better yet still weak commodity solution profitably produced by an OEM, then there might be a broader search that might include Axion technology. Manufacturers seem willing to jump all over a new, unique mechanical system or piece of electronics. Batteries, on the other hand, have to be standardized commodity items to gain consideration.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Concerning the carbon additives. Exide offers them. JCI does not as far as I know. Says something.

     

    In one of their presentations JCI made the statement that carbon additives added failure modes to the battery so they were not a great solution. Exide offers them but as we saw they pulled the warranties on their batteries.
    -
    Now back to watching the outcome of TG's fine work.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I've said the same thing. Axion needs a Pepsi. BMW, nor any other automaker wants to buy from a monopoly supplier. The regulators certainly won't make them do it.

     

    We're going to see this play out in the negotiations with BMW's battery suppliers and that's why I don't think we see an agreement like JP envisions.

     

    So, if there was a substitute product that wasn't as good, it would serve to put a limit on Axion's monopoly profits and give a window for negotiation.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    -"Your numbers are nonsense LT. There were 115 million shares outstanding at March 31st. Even at the current price it would only take 67 million new shares to retire the debt."

     

    -"That's 180 million not 250 million, and you only get to that level if you assume that nothing positive is going to happen to move the price up."
    -- John

     

    Given the company history, (IMHO) there is pretty good odds that when the "positive" comes it will be "too little, too late".
    How many years have we heard "any day now we are going to get a big announcement that will turn things around"?

     

    I don't think there is money to be made by holding the stock but I do think there are great products to be made using the battery. So, money may be better invested in the companies that will benefit from using the battery. Money spent to keep the company going until the battery starts being used, is well spent.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    greentongue, you misinterpreted my post to Mr.I ... i did NOT say 250 million shares, I was asking him for clarification on his numbers which he promptly answered.

     

    Otherwise, I agree we have 175 million shares now, but that may increase if share price goes down further per the terms of this financing, but also it is in Black & White in the last report that they will need money next spring again, so they are approving another 100 million shares. Are these going to sit on the shelf? I doubt it, so a year from now you probably have 250-300 million out.

     

    I don't argue that money may be better invested elsewhere, the whole APC here knows that's why I am out. But, at some point at .10 or less - IF they are making progress I may come back in.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    >Bangwhiz --- RE: "It appears the stock price and Axion's actual business circumstances are completely disconnected."
    .........................

     

    To tie your comment in with some of the discussion on shorting: --- I saw a reference recently to how some Chinese entities [and likely others] begin to short a stock of a company they have an interest in owning. The lower the price goes, the less they have to pay for it.

     

    In spite of a number of comments that Axion is largely unknown in the investment community, I have to believe that there are at least a few entities that are quite aware of Axion and its potential. Whether that is translating to some of the shorting going on or not, who's to tell. But I think there's a possibility some of Axion's weak share price could actually reflect some of Axion's strengths.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    There is definitely a major smear campaign going on. These trolls don't appear for nothing. Definitely someone is hoping to scoop Axion up for the cheap. JP gets in the way of that and so he gets his very own club of disparagers on the Yahoo board.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    my losses aren't realized until I sell, which I don't intend to do. The unfortunate fact is that I could ride the thing down to zero, see the company fail, accept the bitter pill that my investment was an error and then see someone else pick up the pieces (patents) and make the money that I hoped to make investing in the idea.
    That's the problem. My investment doesn't stick to the idea; it sticks to the company tasked with developing and marketing the idea. I don't have much to say about the development. I have a lot of questions about the marketing.
    You can only continue along so long, keeping your amazing invention under a shroud and saying "it's gonna be big", until folks stop listening.
    Maybe someone else comes along and unveils the amazing invention to their benefit, but if your money is on the magician and his amazing invention does not make it big under his control, you have still lost.

     

    Axion appears to sell batteries only to "strategic partners and OEMs" who lock them up in non-disclosure agreements (ePower excepted, perhaps). I see little or no downside to Axion pumping out several thousand of their current batteries, if they are in fact reliable in their current state of development and making them openly available, even advertising them, to anyone who wishes to hook them up to a widget and see what happens. That doesn't represent a commitment to supply large quantities outside the bounds of an exclusive contract. It means that there may be many other opportunities that won't see the light of day until many more people can get their hands on a battery. I'm no expert on this business, but I know something about the motivations of people and their behavior that is driven by those motivations. Axion is missing a real opportunity to take their "shovel ready" product and putting it to an up or down vote in the open market. I'll guarantee you that there are any number of entities out there willing and able to spend $250 or $400 on a deep cycle battery with the promise of multi-thousands of charge cycles without deterioration. I can think of one, even in my relative ignorance of the industry; the sailing yacht market. Yes indeed, this market will not make the company rich, by any means. No-one buys millions of sailing boats every year. However, a niche market like that can generate plenty of real-world experimentation and "buzz" about the performance of a battery bringing new capabilities to the table. What it represents is "free press", with few strings attached.
    This company lacks a marketing strategy. It may hit the big time on the back of BMW or a railroad, but only if and when those entities allow it. In the meantime, the company needs to survive. ePower isn't buying batteries at a rate to keep the company afloat, nor is Rosewater. Tell me where I can by the whiz-bang new-fangled battery. Maybe I'll try it in my boat...or the electric golf-cart at my lavender farm, or my off-grid vacation cabin, or, or, or, or.
    26 Jun 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    I've reached the point where I'm actually hoping the share price falls further so I can scoop up more. I've forgotten about my current shares and raised cash for more.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    I'm the last guy in the world to address your interesting observation. That said I have to on the surface agree with your proposal. I, for one, would love to have one of these things to try with a trolling motor. Of course, I suspect that would be silly, but what the heck ????

     

    Rick Krementz is the real expert on applications (from my perspective) for small users. He's building his mother in NJ a backup system I would love to understand. He's spending a pittance compared to the king's ransom I'm spending for backup power. He talks about gell batteries, etc. That's the kind of nerdy stuff I a absolutely love!

     

    The problem, I suspect, is that the best application for Axion is deep, and rapid charge/discharge. That means autos.

     

    To sell a house for $200,000 takes the same amount of paperwork and effort ( or at least close to it) as it does a $700,000 house. So many brokers ignore the low end.

     

    Maybe this is the same deal ???
    26 Jun 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Nathan, I feel one of Axion's huge problems is their uber-NDA disease. One (of many) of the painful outcomes is that Axion forgoes both revenue and ideas / experimentation. There are many specialty applications that may be effective, but Axion will not permit anyone to try it.

     

    Waiting and waiting for a possible hit with NS or BMW is not a strategy; it is sitting around taking hits of hopium and wishing nobody sticks a broomstick into an unpleasant location. As has happened with the recent financing round.

     

    Not only is there no marketing, their strategy is internally self-contradictory. JP has discussed their eventual plan to sell zillions of electrodes to large scale battery manufacturers. However, the company is spending significant (ever-dwindling) resources on end applications, such as Rosewater's Hubs, Power Cube, etc. Axion should not be trying sell inverters or complete systems: they have no marketing or sales force, they have no expertise, they have no value-add.

     

    Perhaps uber-NDA disease was helpful negotiating with elevator unions in the last millenium, or perhaps was partly responsible for the demise of the domestic US elevator manufacturing industry. However, a continuously declining stock price from $4.00 (2005) to less than 15 cents shows the present management philosophy is not effective in this century. The uber-NDA disease seems to have the side effects of total deafness to meaningful complaints or suggestions, and an absolute lack of self-reflection.

     

    I recently signed an NDA with Axion. The truly pathetic aspect was that the "secret" information discussed should have all been on their website a long time ago. I do not recollect anything that warranted an NDA. I asked if I could mention a few innocuous, specific items, and was assured that it was covered by the NDA and should not be mentioned. So I won't.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood, the problem is Axion is trying to sell $1000 of batteries with as much paperwork as a $700,000 house. Billions of lead batteries are sold each year without mishaps or excess paperwork.

     

    Actually, autos are not a particularly good fit for Bio-Carbon batteries. Bio-Carbons are bigger and heavier per kwh than most batteries, and have 20% more lead per kwh than conventional lead acid batteries. Stationary systems do not have nearly as much issues with weight or volume. (Perhaps the BMW project will be successful - I do not know)

     

    You are right that deep, rapid recharge applications are Axions' sweet spot.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Rick, further to the statement "deep, and rapid charge/discharge" are Axions sweet spot.

     

    You appear to have a very good grasp of the PbC technology together with a broad understanding of the larger picture regarding residential and grid.

     

    I am trying to understand if there is indeed a market for the Power Cube idea and if so what might the economics be. I do understand that geography is an important component and so the assurance of high quality electricity out in the sticks would probably not work but that there is a market for high quality electricity in urban areas and even more in industries like data farms, air port services and the military.

     

    I am not a technical being even though I was a BAL programmer and business analyst in the 70's. I don't seem to be able to wrap my mind around the intracacies of the electricity markets and am puzzled by the apparent inactivity of the JPM/Viridity/AXION enterprise.

     

    I thought that the regulators had made their rulings and that all parties were on board. However the almost total lack of movement in this area is leading me to think that there is no money in the proposition.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Rick, But as pointed out by Dr. Buiel, one of the most important things to protect was the sheeting process they patented thus allowing everyone to see it. Not that it's all inclusive. Should have been a trade secret.

     

    Sorry to hear you say what was covered by the NDA should be in the public domain. Since I respect your opinion and you've been around, I'm darn confident you're accurate on this point.

     

    Oh well, I guess I'll go back to hitting the "up" button
    26 Jun 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, I do not know much about the sheeting process and have not even read the patent carefully. I have no issue about trade secrets on the manufacturing technology, and I see no reason for that to be public.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Understood. I'm just indicating that something that Dr. Buiel deemed worthy of obscuring was at least partially put in the public domain. And from what you've stated, after reviewing information shared with you after the signing of an NDA, it seems like their priorities might be a little off concerning what should be protected via secrecy.

     

    I obviously don't have all the facts but I do have reason for concern given the glimmer I have of your background and Dr. Buiel's as well.

     

    Then again, maybe after working with Exide they have good reason for concern at a higher level. I've seen some of that old fashioned automotive industry shenanigans.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    Rick, iind ... I'm having visions of an Axion response to RFPs along the lines of "We will be happy to respond to your RFP once we receive the enclosed NDA signed by your CEO and cross signed by your board Chairman.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Maybe TG is overly sensitive about how easy things might get copied? 3D printing and

     

    http://bit.ly/1ag5wW0
    26 Jun 2013, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    We need to ask directly during the next CC about what the company is planning on doing to manage the share price. No more softballs.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Price per share is reaching yet another ridiculously low level. This is what a vision from hell looks like...
    26 Jun 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    What is that, about $15million and change to buy the whole thing?
    26 Jun 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, you newer guys are getting a good dose of what old timers have went thru for 3+ years. Raise your dry powder and sit back and relax.

     

    It won't take another 3 years for AXPW to find it's bottom stock price.

     

    I hate to say it, but about all that's needed right now is a good dose of "capitulation" and it could bottom quick.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, the way I see it, the price is going to stabilize where the price is going to stabilize, and at this point, there's probably not much management can do about it. I suppose they could take their recent bonuses and do a little buying to try to shore up the price. Either that, or return their bonuses to the company as an acknowledgment of the terrible job they did negotiating the financing that put us in the current predicament.

     

    Nobody knows where the pps is going to stabilize, but I believe that when it does, more buyers will step in and the shorts will start to cover. And I believe we’re only one positive announcement away from that scenario. Add another positive announcement or two, and we’re well on our way out of this spiral. — My own cost basis is .70, but since my investment time horizon is a number of years, I have no intention of selling out to avoid another couple pennies down, not after I've already ridden it down for 55 pennies.
    26 Jun 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    But they have a bounce in their step!
    26 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    I don't think TG was being disingenuous by making the bounce comment. He knows the status of the programs better than anyone else.

     

    For all we know, the deal was made with these terms expecting a deal to be made by September (first installments).

     

    Is it possible that a battery supplier deal would include up front cash? That would be a nice way to get rid of these lenders.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    I have been among you guys since early 2011, right before the stock started to go down, so I know what it has been like. Fortunately, I still have cash and my investment thesis hasn't changed from 2 years ago, except for the fact that I see TG as getting a little tired and in need of help to keep the company moving ahead.

     

    As crazy as it may sound, I am looking forward to a sub-10 cents stock so I can load up big :)
    26 Jun 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I do find that the first 80-90% loss is the hardest. After that you can spend lunch money to average it down. That being said, if we wait another couple hours it could be another 25% of what's left!

     

    I was thinking of jumping in at 15, went for coffee and wham 14. We don't need 'capitulation' we need "DEFIBRILLATION!"
    26 Jun 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    called Axion but Lisa Harrington is not available, so is TG. They might be completing a press release regarding BMW ;)
    26 Jun 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    They might also have all the boards numbers black listed, expect john's of course.

     

    I know for a fact that Rambo's number is on TG's speed dial, every company needs a beautiful mind to show them how it's done.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Ryan! --- LOLOL
    26 Jun 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    If you believe in the story here this could be an investment opportunity of a lifetime. I'm creating dry powder for this moment! Just have to wait 3 days for the account to be funded!
    26 Jun 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    While it's a ruthless strategy, I've seen more than one private placement investor drive prices down for the express purpose of scaring the weak hands out of a stock before moving the price in the other direction. The theory seems to be that weak hands will be happy to sell anyway when the price starts heading north and there's no sense buying weak holders out for $.30 if you can scare them out at $.15.

     

    While we've seen large trading volume over the last month, the numbers aren't that far out of line when you consider (a) short interest growth, (b) sales by frightened retail, (c) sales by the new investors, and (d) the infamous OTC double count.

     

    Before the financing was done, there were about 90 million shares in the hands of retail investors. Some of that has moved, but it's about two standard deviations out on the relative hand strength scale.

     

    A couple weeks ago I gave a presentation on the battery industry for partners in a European private equity fund that was making a follow-on investment in a battery company that is not as far along the path as Axion in terms of either manufacturing or user testing and validation. Based on the valuation metrics used in that deal, I'm convinced that Axion should be trading in the $100 to $150 million market cap range instead of $16 million.

     

    Hype Cycles are creatures of expectations. When companies like Tesla get blown all out of proportion to the upside expectations are far too high. When companies like Axion get blown all out of proportion to the downside expectations are far too low. Real life never turns out as good as I think it might or as dreadful as I fear it might.
    26 Jun 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    Why the disparity? A private transaction probably has better access to the pipeline. I've long defended TG and mgmt and it took me a while to honestly realize the size of Axion Power (hint -its tiny).
    I think the current mgmt believes that this Instablog is all their shareholders. Its false there are 10-20x more. I have two friends in this in small amounts 5k and 20k shares bought in fall 2011 at what I thought were the lowest of the lows at $.35ish. They both have contacted me with regards to what is going on. Both went to the website and were underwhelmed.

     

    A simple updated presentation would do wonders...

     

    (I know I am preaching to the choir, but man each day it gets harder to stay in).
    26 Jun 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    The disparity arises because private companies raise money based on their business case while public companies live or die by the market price of their stock, and Axion's had an immense amount of bad luck with its market price over the last couple years.

     

    In a more typical scenario, the price would have stabilized in the $1.15 range after the 2009 offering and responded to business developments thereafter. Instead, we had large holders lined up to liquidate regardless of their losses because of issues that had nothing to do with Axion's performance.

     

    The one bright spot is that the PbC technology today is light years ahead of where it was in early 2010 when Axion had and deserved a $100 million market cap. During the last three years the stock price performance has been breathtakingly bad while the technical business performance has been breathtakingly good.

     

    I've never seen a worse dislocation between price and value, but I've been to the rodeo enough times to know that it will be fun when the market gets a clue.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    How many shares did they get after the registration went effect and when is the "square up"? Aren't we soon into a share volume territory where they would be low on ammo.

     

    Also when is the next batch of shares released; I've seen August mentioned but that is the "square up" date right?

     

    If indeed the placement holders are picking off the weak; won't they have to stop and reload soon?
    26 Jun 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Albert DeKoven
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    The market has a clue, that is why we see the market cap where it is today. Based on the current pipeline and customer base the market has us down to .14 per share. You are not smarter than the market, just more of a dreamer. The best course of action to protect shareholders and the future of Axion is a reverse split 100 to 1 with an up-listing to Nasdaq, then you may get more attention to keep the dream alive.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Hmm... another account that exclusively posts negative messages about Axion.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    All I can say is, I'm not on margin so I really feel no need to sell any shares. In fact I'm picking up more. The only time I will sell is when I hear something out of the company I don't like, or when the price is right.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Albert DeKoven, That's nonsense. They need to worry about getting a partner and sales. There are no market games that are going to help Axion right now. Those opportunities have past.

     

    TG needs to get off the "Fails to deliver" list. The Rosewater fiasco was just the latest incident. As I said before one our both parties in that arrangement were incompetent. A path to sales or bust.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Before placing blame on TG we should ask how many units Rosewater sold using other batteries. Not that many I think. Maybe it was the right move to refuse to give them subsidized prices, even if refusing old friends. It just wouldn't have been a good bet. That would boost my faith in management instead.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, We have no idea how long Rosewater has been marketing other batteries.

     

    That being said Rosewater has a high profile study going on with a couple industry recognized entities, Big uns', and there is no Axion in sight. You can't keep announcing relationships and then having them dissolve while you walk around with your mouth shut. People start thinking you have problems.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    The question to ask is how the heck did they get UL certification if there were design errors or whatever it was with the HUB?

     

    I think most of us had assume that UL cert = ready for market.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    ngs, I got the answer from RW, so you oughta ask them.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    "we should ask how many units Rosewater sold using other batteries. "

     

    We know one answer to that question since Rosewater has sold at least one HUB populated with non-PbC batteries, i.e. - it has sold more with non-PbC batteries than it has with PbCs.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    You should ask how many HUBs Axion had available for Rosewater TO sell, and why. You might be surprised at the answer. I was.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    Mr I, are you suggesting that Axion should have built an inventory of Residential HUBs for Rosewater to draw on?
    26 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    No, just commenting on how many they could have let Rosewater sell.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    "ngs, I got the answer from RW, so you oughta ask them"

     

    RW speaks freely about this but to be fair you would need to hear both sides...
    26 Jun 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    I've been practicing law for 33 years and my wife's been practicing law for another 25. Neither of us have ever heard a new divorcee tell a story that didn't put all the blame on the ex-spouse.

     

    I will never understand why salesmen are invariably drama queens that feel compelled to blame somebody whenever they don't succeed.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I never was a proponent of the Rosewater setup from the start. That said I agree with John.

     

    My understanding of the initial agreement was that the Rosewater/AXPW agreement was a true JV with much of the design outside of the batter coming from AXPW? We've recently seen comments in the APC and the prior few that there were issues with the hub design. Wouldn't this be on Rosewater and not AXPW or am I mistaking who designed the system. If AXPW really designed the system then they wouldn't let Rosewater use the basic design without their batteries and Rosewater would have to get UL certification for their own design.

     

    My thought process was that Rosewater did most of the design for the Hub and AXPW basically provided the batteries. If I have it wrong please correct me here in privately if you wish.

     

    Also, is the PowerCube idea owned by AXPW or by Rosewater? Rosewater has a current brochure to see to the oil services industry a battery agnostic system that was the same as AXPW's solution. So does this mean that Rosewater owns the rights to this as well. Does that mean if we were to pursue a PowerCube sale to some island we would have to license it from Rosewater?
    26 Jun 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, The only thing proprietary or special about the HUB was the PbC battery and the BMS specific to the special characteristics of the PbC battery. Maybe some special augmentation to the inverters for the PbC batteries. After that the thing is pretty much a vanilla wrapper. Once Rosewater deviated from selling the PbC battery for the initial units anything special in support of the PbC based Hub was stripped and so there is nothing internal to the new units for Axion to care about.

     

    The new unit will need to go through UL approval but it probably can be sold into industrial markets without it. Such as the recent trial sales Rosewater announced. Maybe some special permitting in different government regulated areas.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    The way I have it is like this...

     

    The PC was built with an Eaton inverter and Princeton controls. I am uncertain why it was not all Princeton because they do have a UL listed system that would work (perhaps the Eaton was cheaper and all they needed to start with or the Princeton was not ready). The assumption at the time was that any future PC orders would be filled by Princeton DRI-100.

     

    It came as a surprise to me that the ResHub was not a Princeton DRI-10. I believe it was RW that wanted something different because of their client base (dual inversion maybe?). I believe there were two parallel paths for the ResHub product and the one that failed was the RW ResHub as the DRI-10 received UL certification earlier this year and is available now from Princeton with a PbC BMS. I believe the only reason why there was an Axion sticker on the RW version of the ResHub was that Axion funded part or all of it.

     

    That's my take, for what its worth...
    26 Jun 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I thought the power cube inverter came from Dynapower. @3.5 minutes.

     

    I looked quick. Is Dynapower owned by Eaton?

     

    http://bit.ly/10hQkQj
    26 Jun 2013, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, My information came from the last annual stockholders meeting and a tour in the PC with Enders.

     

    I know the Axion Power YouTube tour shows the Dynapower equipment but not in the PC. They are also pulling around a 20' container when the installed PC is 40'. Perhaps we have two functional PC's?

     

    http://bit.ly/N3AaCi

     

    The Eaton/Dynapower idea is interesting. I will have a look but I suspect you might beat me to it...
    26 Jun 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    There is a 40 foot PC connected to the grid at Clover Lane, New Castle. There is a 20 foot PC inside the Green Ridge Road facility.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Tim and Rick, Thanks for the response.

     

    One might be some government grant associated with the solar initiative and one with grid support. I think the former smaller unit is a left over piece of David G. era. A very smart guy with interests he over extended himself on.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • mggalla
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    as opposed to the exclusively positive messages about Axion!
    28 Jun 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • mggalla
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    ...Real life never turns out as good as I think it might or as dreadful as I fear it might. ....
    I heard that about Exide, too
    28 Jun 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Exide built its capital structure on a mountain of permanent debt and generated the bulk of its operating cash flow from battery recycling rather than battery manufacturing. When the regulators started killing off the cash cows there wasn't enough cash left to service the debt.

     

    Axion's last raise was technically a debt issuance, but absent a market catastrophe, the debt can only be repaid in stock and the debt will be fully retired within a year. While the debt is mildly toxic to the stock price, it is not at all toxic to the underlying business.

     

    Different facts yield different outcomes.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I think it is the lack of solid business activity is what has gotten people despondent. The R&D phase of life is over yet it is the only segment that continues to be encouraging unless the upcoming Phase II grant is a bust.

     

    Yeah, negotiation with a BMW battery OEM supplier being underway is good to hear, it is not solid performance. Only ink on paper counts.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Johhny rambo
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    I would rather be on the side of expectations blown out of all proportion.
    That way at least you have a chance to run for the exits !

     

    6 months ago Tesla was worth an astounding 100x Axion.
    Today it is 680x Axion, and the way it is panning out it is going to end up the year at 1,000x Axion.

     

    There isn't anyone left to care about Axion now, there has been too consistent mismanagement of this company, and we are cleary running on "code red"
    26 Jun 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Okay, for a dolt like me, please explain.

     

    Seen lots of speculation as to who's selling and why. But it's impossible to have folks selling unless someone is buying. The "block trade" number is becoming useless inasmuch as 10K shares no longer means what it did. I've seen what appear to be 100K sales, but again that means somebody is buying those 100K shares.

     

    So, for the benefit of a simple investor like me, please include in your selling analysis a buying analysis. I assure you I'm not the only buyer here. Wish I was able to be the only buyer. :>)
    26 Jun 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Valley,

     

    Many here have 'huge' positions. And they average down when they can. Nonetheless, it's not fun if the pps bounce never comes.

     

    I'd hope to see insider purchases at these levels but maybe we're in a "quiet" period and something material may appear soon in the blotter.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    I apologize for not doing the math, but if memory serves, even if the share price goes down to $.05 we'll end up with roughly 300m shares outstanding after this Maxim disaster. While it is quite possible that Maxim's investors/affiliates are playing for this, hoping to scoop up the company on the cheap later this year, it is very important to remember that Axion is not in danger of declaring bankruptcy for roughly a year.

     

    The lower the share price goes, of course, the more shares that Maxim gets and (increasing at a slower rate), the higher a percentage of Axion the Maxim shareholders own (or flip). Given the discounting and the time period used in the pricing formula, the current price decline appears to be going too fast for Maxim to make money flipping the shares. For now, we can think of Maxim as basically a machine transferring wealth from existing shareholders to new shareholders.

     

    So, now is the time to stop complaining and to decide whether you want to be a new shareholder or do you want some Maxim affiliates to be those new shareholders. At each round of financing (each down round), you have to re-examine the investment. How good is the technology? How far along is it? How capable is management? What is the valuation? etc. etc. etc.

     

    On balance, I think the opportunity, at the current price, is favorable, maybe even more so than when I first invested. I have much less confidence in management, which is a huge factor, but the technology has passed some key milestones since I first invested and enough time has passed for us to be entering the window of commercialization with big companies like NS.

     

    If the sun was shining, Axion's stock price wouldn't be $.15. Do you think there is an information disconnect? My years of study say yes.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    apm, you said, "the current price decline appears to be going too fast for Maxim to make money flipping the shares"

     

    All longs optimize their profit by buying as low as possible and selling as high as possible. For the PIPE investors, I think that means sell the intial repymt shares they rec'd several weeks ago at high prices, then have the true-up calc date (July 5, I think) price be as low as possible.

     

    But optimal, schmoptimal. They can still make a big return even though the price has been falling a lot before July 5th. If their average selling price has been, say, 20 cents since they rec'd the initial 4.5 million shares, they just need the average sales price of the true-up shares to be maybe only x cents or so to make a high return. Anyone can run some scenarios, but I'm guessing that x = 8-10 cents.

     

    July 5th price action will be very interesting to watch. Could easily be that the PIPErs have a big incentive to crush the VWAP that day. Could be a capitulation day that lasts until early August, the next intial installment pymt day.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I,

     

    I thought the "true-up" is a VWAP so why would one day (i.e. July 5th) be any more eventful than the next? Unless it is the lower of the 2 prices (VWAP vs PPS on day of installment). Also is early August the next initial payment owed for September with the true up being at the end of the month?
    26 Jun 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2322) | Send Message
     
    APM,

     

    I think the new holders are limited too how much they can own. But yes there is a changing of the guard now. I think it will be a whole new round of elephant eaters that digest these sub 20 cent shares. I think many of our biggest appetites left these parts after we ducked under 30 cents. Also if we assume double count it can take a whole year to eat 70M shares. I'd think only way out it get the pps back above 30 cents and then the placement will effectively become a straight deal without the floorless conversions. I think JP said as much when deal first was announced.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    baz, it's the lower of the average 20 lowest trading days's VWAP of the last 40 blah blah blah, and the VWAP for the day before (therefore Friday July 5th---I think I typoed July 7th above). Very nice feature for the investors. Could be absolutely compelling viewing that day. I'm not a trader, so I don't know the manipulation methods, but anyone can envision what 500k or a million shares dumped that day would do to the bid.

     

    Or maybe nothing unusual will happen. I've never hung around after PIPErs get involved before. Just have to wait and see.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    In the recent past, we spent a lot of time discussing how the stk's oversupply was overwhelming the fundamentals. We're back in another oversupply situation here, but it's even worse this time because of the make-whole and discount aspects of the PIPE deal.

     

    At a price of 14.5 cents, the $9 million PIPE represents 73 million shares, which in turn represents 186 million shares o/s.
    26 Jun 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Could axion be at a state in which they are not wanting to show up on the radar until they have something firm in place for fear of being noticed and bought up or crushed by a competitor that see's us as more then a small bait fish.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    Too complicated IMHO
    27 Jun 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/14tGkFc

     

    This thread Might suggest why BMW might be trying to make the system more idiot proof. A lot of people having trouble operating and trying to understand how and when to use the system.

     

    Fear of the dodgy start up for those you like to left turn bolt.
    26 Jun 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    I do hope Mr. "AXPW Dumper" shows up at the end of the day today, as usual. I am waiting for 64.000 share at 0,141 USD.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    I think Mr Dumper didn't like our bullish talk and covered some shares mid day.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Oh yes. I am publishing this on purpose to scare the sellers away. :-)
    26 Jun 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Poul, You can always change your picture short term and make a mean face! ;))
    26 Jun 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    iindelco. Maybe just a picture with my morning-hair :-)
    26 Jun 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Poul Brandt ... Looks like it won't work. You probably need a more "Dr. Evil" type smile.

     

    http://bit.ly/12kPmWg
    26 Jun 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    DRich. No morning-hair there
    26 Jun 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    DRich. I would say, as long as I do not get my shares I have won.
    And if I get them I win too.
    26 Jun 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Poul, Not before morning coffee as well. Those two conditions shared in a picture could be a prosecutable offense. :-p
    26 Jun 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    iindelco. Frightening thought. Might scare the pps up above 0,20
    26 Jun 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Dumpeeeerrr. 2 minutes to go. Where are you?
    26 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8755) | Send Message
     
    Poul, Well we didn't hit above 0.20 USD but I think you've got them turned around and anxious.

     

    Good luck with your order. I think the gamers will give you more opportunities. But you NEVER know.

     

    This tech. is good stuff. I just hope we get a little love while we can still participate in the popping of the cork.
    26 Jun 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1400) | Send Message
     
    Interesting coincidence, isn't it?
    26 Jun 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Hej Rama.
    Yes, very interesting. You have just witnessed an example of positive share price psychology. (Also called Double Reverse Women's Psychology. But now I am getting ahead of myself).
    To show this is for real I will predict that by tomorrow morning there will only be a request for 13.000 axpw at 0,141USD. The purpose naturally being to lure Mr. Dumper to go below this price, and then run/ruin him over later in the day with an order for the remaining 51.000 pcs.
    Have a good nights sleep, if you dare . ;-)
    26 Jun 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the price volume trend. Volume is trending up in recent weeks, but looking more broadly, it doesn't seem like total value of stock traded is changing much. That makes me think that the Maxim guys aren't selling enormous quantities. Does this measure really tell us anyting? HTL?
    26 Jun 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    APmarshal: I can give you some totals. How would you like it broken down: $ totals for buy, sell, unknown or just daily $ traded?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jun 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17248) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's EOD stuff.

     

    06/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later)..
    # Trds: 105, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 53992, Vol 570717, AvTrSz: 5435
    Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 1.1700, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1619
    # Buys, Shares: 33 136500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1651
    # Sells, Shares: 69 409217, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1608
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 25000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1633
    Buy:Sell 1:3.00 (23.9% “buys”), DlyShts 94600 (16.58%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.12%
    06/25: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2103, in 40 days: $0.1788

     

    Prior recent calculations of estimated next share issue price:
    06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968
    06/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2292, in 40 days: $0.1948
    06/18: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2266, in 40 days: $0.1926
    06/19: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2242, in 40 days: $0.1906
    06/20: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2214, in 40 days: $0.1882
    06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850
    06/24: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2147, in 40 days: $0.1825

     

    WVAP's continue the trend:
    $0.2122, $0.1999, $0.1963, $0.1961, $0.1925, $0.1751, $0.1710 & today's 0.1619.

     

    Volumes, in thousands: 742.26, 436.05, 189.36, 295.91, 735.03, 808.78 and 598.25.

     

    A 15K AH trade is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 555,717 to 570,717 and the short percentage from 17.02% to 16.58%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 109,600 and the short percentage to 19.20%.

     

    My original experimental inflection point calculations have every number weakening.

     

    My newer version agrees except that the five-day change of the 10-day calculation had a minuscule improvement from -0151.37 to -0150.57. The additional factors considered make the overall weakening seem a bit less dramatic.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jun 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    One thing recent AXPW share prices point to with some degree of confidence is that Quercus Trust warrants with exercise price of $.75 will not be exercised before their expiration date (June 29, 2013). 4,761,905 of those warrants are outstanding. Perhaps JP can recall whether warrants issued to underwriters as payment for services associated with the Quercus Trust offering have a matching expiration date (or no expiration date). 1,085,714 warrants issued to the underwriters remain outstanding.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    All of the warrants associated with the Quercus transaction had the same expiration dates.
    26 Jun 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3883) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info, JP.
    26 Jun 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    There must be some way to come up with some cash for the next payment instead of shares. Then the naked shorts would be exposed for what they are. Maybe Kickstart or something like that. I would donate.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • engindoc
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Can anyone tell me when the oldest of Axion's most valuable patents will expire? Thanks.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Axion's patents expire in 2021 through 2031. The complete list with expiration dates is on page 20 of this registration statement.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/14y5sef

     

    The oldest patents relate to the core electrochemistry. The newer patents relate to the design and construction of a device that optimizes the electrochemistry and can be manufactured with existing infrastructure.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • engindoc
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, JP.
    26 Jun 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    this is the anvil. die or carry on: http://bit.ly/14y7eMu
    26 Jun 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Toyota warns it could leave electric car sector
    By John Parnell (At least in Europe)
    http://bit.ly/11Ov9VJ
    “We always assess a vehicle from well to wheel. If the electricity is not sourced from renewables then it makes little sense.”
    26 Jun 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Volvo's electric roads concept points to battery-free EV future

     

    http://bit.ly/1agc6vu

     

    Approximately they glue the rails in small sections to the existing highway. (One positive one negative.) Only a section with a receiver (Vehicle) for the energy will be powered.
    They apparently have been powering some electric trolleys with a similar method since 2003.
    Overhead lines apparently cost more.
    26 Jun 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    I believe overhead lines DO cost more in an arctic climate (engineering to resist ice buildup and winter storms). Earlier versions in warmer climes featured overhead power, but were also done that way to avoid problems with all the buried utilities already under the roads that had to be maintained.
    27 Jun 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    "deep, rapid recharge applications are Axions' sweet spot."
    What about the normal company cycle where there is a sudden load as everything is started in the morning, every morning? Having a fast reacting storage to handle the surge would be a big plus. Yes, you can pay for peak power hours, or you can charge off peak and level load.
    Handling heavy discharge is just as important as fast recharge especially when you can do it for 100k cycles.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >greentongue ... Motor starting and peak shaving is the basis for my belief that Axion's PowerCube would be a good front-end device for a commercial storage system and/or a renewable energy installation. When the PC has served its purpose it can hand the steady load off to another storage device. Maybe even recharge by scavenging power from the secondary system and/or off the grid tie-in. Acting as a buffer in & out for the secondary. In the meantime, the PC can earn a few shekels doing Frequency Response for the grid utility.

     

    It really makes no sense that storage demonstration & installations are presently all single battery types. The only reason I can think is that customers don't understand how to use storage yet. Just a thought until I see different because I'm not sure my "logical" thinking is something that makes sense. I'm not an electrical kinda' guy. So far I get some encouraging feeling by seeing automotive using supercaps and a PbC is just such a device.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    greentongue, many batteries can take fairly rapid discharge, and the Bio-Carbon is among the best. However, very few batteries can take rapid recharge, and this is the Bio-Carbon strength.

     

    The classic example is automobile starting batteries, which can discharge rapidly for starting, but take hours to fully recharge.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz ... Tell if I'm wrong but the PbC has, so we've been unofficially led to believe, the ability to provide full power discharge within a 50ms response time. I'm not sure how that stacks up against other battery types.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    Most batteries have very rapid response times on discharge, which is why every manufacturer on the planet brags on their system response times. The PbC's strength is it's ability to consistently take a massive charging current without damaging the battery.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    DRich - Response time is impacted by both electronics and the battery. A battery system is much more responsive than a gas turbine or coal plant. I do not know how the Bio-carbon compares in response time to lithium chemistries.
    26 Jun 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Rick Krementz & JP ... I'm aware of the variables of an electronic system i.e. can't be any faster than the slowest component. So, not to belabor the topic, the PbC shines in its capacitor-like recharge current and rise time but is likely just good or run-of-the-mill with current discharge compared to other chemistries? (super)capacitors?
    26 Jun 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    If I correctly understand the dynamics, the fastest possible system response comes from flywheels with supercapactitors and batteries close on their heels. While a massive data center may think 30 seconds of flywheel power stabilization may be the best way to get carry-through power until the emergency genset kicks in, very few users actually need 50 ms response times in the real world.
    27 Jun 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... You mention Stabilization. Reminded me of the following link that might be of interest to some here. I think it has been linked before, "Role of Energy Storage for Mini-Grid Stabilization"

     

    http://bit.ly/1cpYYkc
    27 Jun 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing a battery that can fully discharge and rapidly recharge to capacity over and over is capable of fully discharging and slowly recharging to full capacity, discharging to any degree and slowly or rapidly charging to full capacity.

     

    In rural Zambia, the power goes out abruptly when the copper mines across the country ramp up production. The operating room lights go out just as abruptly and the electrocautery fails. Emergency lights are on battery systems, but they don't have a system that can deliver plenty of current, deeply discharge and rapidly recharge when the power comes on briefly again. They have money enough for durable medical equipment, but not for large quantities of generator fuel. So bring on the batteries that work!

     

    A portable x-ray machine needs to brief deliver bursts of high energy many times over( via discharge of a capaciter, to be certain), then rapidly recharge when put on the charging station, so it can go out and do it again. It's built like a fork lift- heavy, but mobile. It has an electrive drive as well so one can deliver that little brick *#*#* house to each bedside with a minimum of effort. Battery price will be far less important than reliability and durability.

     

    This company should put the batteries out there on the market and let the market decide where they can and will be put to use. Axion has battery production capacity. They should do it now, test the market's ability to absorb modest production capacity and get some additional cash flowing. When the big break occurs, they can still manufacture electrodes, license the electrode production or whatever else makes sense.

     

    I have been following Solazyme for a while now; on their way to cracking the code on algael bio-diesel production, they got diverted into custom production of every manner of custom lipids for many other markets that opened in front of their eyes. Making bigger, smaller, longer, taller, shorter, skinnier batteries ought to be no more difficult than custom lipid bio-reacters, no?

     

    I'm guessing that completed batteries are just as easy to store as components to make them. You can't even begin to supply a small market demand without some inventory of assembled product. It'll look like colossal stupidity if the next several million runs out before this company gives the open market even a tiny chance to avoid the squeeze they just faced this year.
    27 Jun 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe this is the only company/town with intermittent power that has critical systems. Many people don't seem to think about demands outside of their own neighborhood.
    It is a big the world and Axion needs to get their PbC out into it, not keep it hidden in some small shop in the hills.
    27 Jun 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Nathan, I hear you loud and clear on this issue. For instance, if I had my boat I would love to try this on a trolling motor. In fact, I know it's a poor application for this product, but I would have fun doing it. And when it proved me right and did not perform very well I'd chuckle and strut around like a rooster because I was an "early adopter" That however is because for me it would be fun. Purely hobby. And I wouldn't blame anybody for its failure.

     

    For a business however, "fun" is behind profit. And if a business tries the product and it fails, or even under-performs, I will make sure the whole world knows about it. All my employees will blab, etc.

     

    Don't know about e-Power, NS, or BMW, but I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that there was a lot of hand-holding going on at the beginning. This is brand new stuff. It is as I understand it a stunning breakthrough and that makes it difficult to understand at first. So would these outfits have tried us unless we promised to help? I doubt it. And even worse if they tried without us and failed ....... We simply cannot afford to have a fleet of failures and we don't have the personnel to baby sit fifty smaller applications.

     

    I suspect when we get one reliable application out there and running as a commercial success we can go ahead and throw many ponies into the rodeo. But first we have to succeed with a serious customer and we're guiding them through our technology as we go.

     

    Of course, I could be wrong. :>)
    27 Jun 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    green-T, at first blush it looks like we're hiding our technology. But as I understand it we're going to every battery conference, power grid party, and electronics celebration on multiple continents. I'll bet "Travel Expense" is a big ticket on our monthly Expenditures Report.

     

    We're out there. Maybe we're just poor singers. Or maybe in this environment customers are afraid of "new".
    27 Jun 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Just as a reminder, BMW & Norfolk Southern sought out Axion. I'm not exactly sure how or why BMW came to be aware of Axion so early on, but Norfolk flopped with conventional batteries and came to realize that the PbC might just be the battery the railroads have been looking for over the past 100 years (BP4 will be the 5th, 4th serious, attempt at battery power).

     

    ePower Engine Systems came to Axion after trying everything else also. I'm not sure they were aware of the PbC until very recently and are the only potential customer that didn't make the trip to New Castle on their own.
    27 Jun 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    Dr.Rich, ePower was aware of the PbC but it was too expensive. So they tried AGM first, Just like NS.
    We also know the first batteries did not perform as well as the new ones that were tweaked or made with the new process.

     

    Valleywood, AXPW is not and has not attended every battery conference. Mgt. has caught flak from me for this and been defended by others.

     

    The battery business has been a rather small world until recent years, so companies could have found AXPW thru people like Dr. E.Buiel and others who did know. I bet other than Lithium there are only a few "go to guys" in this business who would all be called to help on a new project or offer suggestions.
    27 Jun 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Okay.

     

    I stand corrected.
    27 Jun 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood, no pun was intended. Some of us follow and are invested in ZBB and their CEO attends and is a part of all conferences and IMO has gotten business directly or indirectly by rubbing shoulders with the right people. An example of AXPW is ePower:
    From what was posted here way early and other sources, AXPW mgt. had nothing to do with going to ePower. It was arranged by JP and Joe Pic with Rosewater.

     

    If this is true, then earlier when some say that the Rosewater divorce meant nothing because they hadn't sold a home PC could be questioned. Not because of past sales, but future business and the bringing in new clients. I don't like burning bridges with influential people.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... Reflecting one of the big problems with energy storage. People, as John pointed out, consider it a "grudge" purchase. A belief that one is as good as another. No matter what goes into them or how they perform batteries should be cheap, cheap, cheap.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    DRich> Axion came to BMW's attention when Ed Buiel did a poster session at the June 2009 AABC in California. They found their way to New Castle almost immediately and by December 2009 the PbC had already demonstrated enough merit that BMW wanted to go forward with a more exhaustive testing and validation process.

     

    I introduced ePower to Axion in 2010 but they were convinced at the time that AGM would suit their requirements at a lower cost so nothing happened. When all the problems that Axion predicted in 2010 came to pass, ePower came back with a far more reasonable attitude about the cost differential.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Don't know about BMW.

     

    Do know NSC. NS knew about Axion and rejected them in favor of Brand X. Only failure brought them to Axion.

     

    The question in this context is how did NS become aware of Axion?
    Seems to me the question is moot today.

     

    Ultimately I have to wonder if BMW & NS came to Axion before Axion was ready for presentation. Dunno. I simply have no idea of chicken/egg.

     

    At this point, the question for me becomes, "Is Axion presenting in sufficient volume to potential customers NOW ? Today? " I'll stipulate they are informing me rather poorly as a stockholder, but my impression is that we are polishing the brand in a number of places we consider fertile. Enough ? Hell, I don't know.

     

    What I do know is that complex stuff is surrounded by many errors and more than a few mistakes. But whatever the case, today our team is our team. I don't like everything I think is happening, but then what I think is suspect at best. And on this last point I know I'm right ! :>)

     

    Interesting you mention ePower in your last paragraph. Don't know if I'm on record, but I will be right now. ePower will be the first eagle to fly. Smaller company. Fewer complications. "Easier" application. They will be the first guys placing green in our hands for a commercial market product.

     

    I've got $10 to cover. Will accept the first taker and I'll give First Taker the rest of the field. John can hold the roll. You'll never get that bet anywhere else. :>)

     

    No guts no air medals.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    LT, fair enuff. And no offense taken.

     

    As to Rosewater, I hope they prosper. I think long term they'll kick the door in for us. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they return and buy our batteries at a green ink price.

     

    But they are not the only maiden at the ball. Sometimes things just don't work out.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2164) | Send Message
     
    AKAIK, Axion goes to few battery conferences. Trade shows are expensive, and dollars are scarce. However, for the cost of one trade show exhibit, Axion could could have a stellar website with full specifications, updated information and generate buzz. Make nice to the home town university (Carnegie-Mellon) with a few dozen batteries and a competition, and you would get some fantastic projects and videos.

     

    Add a semi-competent free-lance PR person, and get stories posted all over the web. So when an engineer from Cummins or ePower or a local power co-op or an off-grid experimenter or an adventurous alternate energy entrepreneur, etc. they find Axion, they find stories and information, and they can buy some.

     

    Yes, one takes the risk someone might feed the battery to an infant, or connects it to 440V AC, or even tries to start their car with it. The problem is management is afraid of "new".
    27 Jun 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29439) | Send Message
     
    BMW and NS both represented significant leaps of faith for major companies. When BMW did it's initial testing of the early PbC the only automation that existed was a first generation electrode assembly line that Axion designed and built in house.

     

    Shortly after BMW decided that it wanted to proceed to the next step in its testing and validation process, Axion announced that it had hired an outside engineering firm to redesign a second generation electrode assembly line. My suspicion is that BMW said "We love what the PbC does, but your process is nowhere near ready for prime time. Let us make some introductions."

     

    While automation of the electrode assembly line was making clear and substantial progress when NS publicly joined the party in June 2010, it knew that Axion hadn't proven an automated process for the carbon sheet production that represented the substantial bulk of its labor costs.

     

    Earlier this year Axion commissioned the first automated sheeting line. I can only imagine the sleepless nights management endured as they worried about how the cheaper machine-made sheets would stack up against carbon sheets fabricated using the original labor intensive process. I know everybody was surprised when the output of the automated line performed significantly better than the original because things don't usually work out that way in the battery industry where every advance involves trade-offs.
    27 Jun 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like