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  • Axion Power Concentrator 247: June 28: Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For EPower 346 comments
    Jun 28, 2013 11:02 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For ePower

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

    Excerpts from the First Quarter 10-Q --

    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

    "The second hybrid truck program we have been working on is a dual battery design for a truck stop/start technology. This is very similar to the stop/start initiative we have been working toward with passenger vehicle OEM's, except that the battery sizes are larger. In this stop/start program, we have an historical industry leader as an initial strategic partner. We are in the early stages with this program, but we have been told that, if initial data continues to trend as we have predicted, then we will be able to incorporate data we developed in our passenger vehicle stop/start program. This is significant because it will literally reduce time to market by at least 1/3 rd."

    "Our Phase II proof of concept effort includes collaboration with strategic partners chosen for their expertise in the development of compatible vehicle systems that are essential for our entry into both historical and emerging markets. The unique properties our PbC® battery exhibits - long cycle life; high charge acceptance; fast re-charge; and inherent string equalization - create a strong case for PbC adoption by historical industry leaders and by those with new cutting edge technologies. Our application pointed out, as further evidence of our potential place in those markets, that we are in various stages of lab or field vehicle testing with these strategic partners."

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

    the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that it has completed a private placement of $9 million principal amount of senior convertible notes and warrants with institutional investors and an additional $1 millionprincipal amount of subordinated unsecured convertible notes and warrants in an ancillary transaction with directors, officers and one of the original Axion founders. Maxim Group LLC acted as placement agent.

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

    The developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced its Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing, Vani Dantam, has been invited to participate as a panel expert on energy storage, at the upcoming AGRION event in NYC.

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    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Thomas Granville CEO: "We left the designation 'development stage company' in the dust in 2012 and there's no slowdown in sight."

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

    "This is a giant leap forward for us and allows us to make a better product at a reduced cost," said Axion Power's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Granville. "It's the final step in automating our complete activated carbon negative electrode manufacturing process and it brings us tighter quality control, better production yields, meaningful production quantities and significant labor cost reductions..."

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    Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 06/22/2013)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 6/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

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Comments (346)
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  • Not selling...
    28 Jun 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • close.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • buying on the way down
    28 Jun 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • You're up a day early APH.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • A couple concentrators ago, I asked if Maya was still holding. Anybody know?
    28 Jun 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • I don't know, but even if I did I wouldn't discuss somebody else's personal affairs in a public forum. Maybe that's why SA has a private message utility.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • That's fine that you think that. However, I think it's a relevant data point concerning Maya started this concentrator, has commented many times about how great this forum is, and many here have followed his personal observations from New Castle closely.

     

    If his opinion concerning his former publicly disclosed observations in New Castle has changed, it is directly relevant to the creation and maintenance of this concentrator.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan: Certainly valid, but then I would expect Maya to make a decision about publicly posting or not.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • Of course it is his decision to do whatever he wants. But maybe we should include a forward looking statement disclaimer at the top of every concentrator the way Axion has in its CCs.

     

    Heck, Axion has been talking about ongoing testing programs with automakers other than BMW for years. What does that mean?

     

    Given the blowup of the RW relationship that we have only heard about through back channels, I wonder how many others have gone this way. Of course it's impossible to tell.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan, it's absolutely relevant info.
    28 Jun 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • I never came close to having Maya's level of exposure to AXPW in absolute share counts or funds invested. But, I concluded that my exposure to AXPW was excessive in the wake of the PIPE financing. Axion management lacks the skill set I believe is needed to translate PbC technological advantage and manufacturing developments into profits within a time frame capable of yielding competitive rates of return on investment. I have pruned my holdings by 40% and plan further pruning absent additional confirmation of accelerating commercialization of the technology.
    28 Jun 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • "Given the blowup of the RW relationship that we have only heard about through back channels, I wonder how many others have gone this way. Of course it's impossible to tell. "

     

    Continuing invisibility of NS 999 to the public and lack of any level of repeat business from NSC suggests that relationship is on life support if not terminated.
    28 Jun 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... A totally ignorant conjecture on your part. If you have foundation or support of a bad inter-company relationship or project termination ... provide it. I haven't seen, read or heard anything of that sort.

     

    http://on.fb.me/1aHi8E0

     

    I admit to being discouraged by how slowly Norfolk is proceeding and have drawn my own conclusions about the internals related to NSC but that is independent of NSC/AXPW relationship
    28 Jun 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • And let us not forget Valleywood's contributions. I presume that his claim of knowing NSC workings to be true and he has offered some information that should help remove *some* of the concern. IIRC.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jun 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • DR < "A totally ignorant conjecture on your part. If you have foundation or support of a bad inter-company relationship or project termination ... provide it. I haven't seen, read or heard anything of that sort."

     

    :-) Your opinion is your opinion and mine is mine. Your observation that "I haven't seen, read, or heard anything of that sort" prompts recall of MacArthur quote -- "Old soldiers never die they just fade away."

     

    Or to put it another way, while you haven't seen, read, or heard anything about a 'bad inter-company relationship or project termination' you also haven't heard anything supporting a continuing relationship post delivery at year-end 2012 of batteries ordered for in late April 2012.

     

    OTOH, we do have knowledge of NSC pursuing -- and receiving -- federal grant money for Covus li-ion battery pack for a hybrid locomotive.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • You obviously haven't been reading the recent commentary from Valleywood or asking him to expand on points that aren't clear to you. After spending some time on the phone with him I can guarantee that you'd find his take both well informed and fascinating.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... True, it is my opinion that photographs of NS999 being moved from Bay 15 to Bay 10 within the Juniata Shop is more than likely indicative the project has not been terminated. What have you got. The photographs may or may not be proof of Axion PbC being inside but it beats your total lack of evidence. It's not for me prove your unsupported opinion right or wrong. You made the claim ... now back it up.

     

    The Covus Li-on testing for a hybrid locomotive does give me pause but it isn't NS999. It is a legitimate thing to do. It doesn't preclude the final acceptance of Axion PbC because they know it works. Norfolk has, in the past, tested LAB, Li-on, Ni for the BP4 and they failed. The hybrid is a different system
    28 Jun 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Au contraire, JP. I have been intrigued with VW's remarks re-NSC while keeping in mind that he is several years removed from that bureaucracy. Change happens over time. One seemingly pertinent recent change (within past 10 months) is introduction of an AMPS Hybrid Gen-set locomotive equipped with Corvus Li-ion batteries for "switcher" service. Said locomotive is an alternative to, probable competitor of, NSC's battery electric switcher locomotive concept (NS 999).
    28 Jun 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • DR < "True, it is my opinion that photographs of NS999 being moved from Bay 15 to Bay 10 within the Juniata Shop is more than likely indicative the project has not been terminated."

     

    A picture of the NS999 inside a workshop confirms that the locomotive frame has not been junked and could well indicate that the PbC powered locomotive project continues. Continuation of the project, though, is perfectly possible independent of any continuing relationship with Axion. :-) I bought a steel hammer at a Hechinger's Hardware store more than 40 years ago, still use the hammer from time to time, but have not had any relationship with Hechinger's Hardware for quite some time (the firm went bankrupt some years ago).

     

    :-) As to the NS999 being moved from Bay 15 to Bay 10, I have read reports to that effect on the APCs but personally did not see the NS999 pictured anywhere other than inside Bay 10.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • "As to the NS999 being moved from Bay 15 to Bay 10, I have read reports to that effect on the APCs but personally did not see the NS999 pictured anywhere other than inside Bay 10. "

     

    D-inv, Both pictures were posted here in this forum. There should be no question in your mind given they were available to look at or others here looked at them and confirmed it to you. They are data points not opinions.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • iind > "D-inv, Both pictures were posted here in this forum. There should be no question in your mind given they were available to look at or others here looked at them and confirmed it to you."

     

    And I thank you and others who looked at the first picture (as I did) and reported what they saw (as I did). What I saw while supposedly looking at the same image is just as much a "data point" as other reported observations. I do not question what others saw, but can not say I saw the same thing despite looking multiple times.

     

    Perhaps it is a Firefox browser issue on my end or some such. Look-sees at the picture included viewing the image alone and "zooming" to the max on all locomotives I could see/find in the image. I saw only 4-digit numbers on locomotives and bay numbers of one and two digits. None of the two digit bay numbers were legible to me. OTOH, scrolling down the FB page to comments posted below the picture I observed at least one comment noting presence of the NS999 in the picture.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the clarification. :)
    28 Jun 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... Then it is as I suspect ... you've not been paying attention and spout first, research later and preferable with some else's time.

     

    Just so you don't feel left out. Here is Bay 15 in May, 2013

     

    http://on.fb.me/143ueUr

     

    Here it is in Bay 10 in June,2013

     

    http://on.fb.me/1aHi8E0

     

    Your turn to provide some justification. The Corvus battery grant is just a test ... and why not, but it is barely enough money to purchase the cells. I don't view it as a threat to Axion at the moment. Norfolk is building 27 genset switchers and I view that more seriously.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • DR > "Then it is as I suspect ... you've not been paying attention and spout first, research later and preferable with some else's time.

     

    Just so you don't feel left out. Here is Bay 15 in May, 2013

     

    http://on.fb.me/143ueUr"
    <

     

    Then you suspected wrongly and literally accuse me of commenting without first looking at the picture, an accusation I do not take lightly. Perhaps it is the accuser who is guilty of charge.

     

    The Bay numbers on the May, 2013 photo is clearly legible in your link, contrary to my recollection, but the locomotive inside Bay 15 has 4-digit numerals just like the locomotives sitting outside the building. And, that is true whether I view the picture in Firefox or Chrome. Zooming in on the locomotive inside Bay 15, I make out the numbers to read 6552, 6553, or 6557.

     

    NS 999 has appeared clearly in all photo shots of Bay 10 referenced to APCs within the past few weeks, a circumstance I have never questioned or challenged in any way.

     

    It is possible the Corvus battery grant is just a test as you suggest, a test NSC judged cheaper to undertake than to resist in the face of collusive chrony capitalist political pressure to pursue. (My 10:07 response to JP includes some justification for the opposite view.)
    28 Jun 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv, Not to butt in...

     

    "Zooming in on the locomotive inside Bay 15, I make out the numbers to read 6552, 6553, or 6557."

     

    That's what I thought too, until I remembered the numbers are black and the background is white. The numbers you see are the background between 999 (I think)...
    28 Jun 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv,

     

    It is a funny visual perceptual error that stumped me at first, too. The letters are black against a white background oval field, against a black train, as you can see from the other two locos that are in the foreground, well-lit, and in focus.

     

    The 999 is in shadow, out of focus, and in the background. Our brains naturally want to try to focus the unfocused letters as white against a black background.

     

    Look again for the black letters between the white spaces and you will see it.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • I'm tired of dealing with you D-inv. It's hard to exhaust my patience but you've done an admirable job. There will be no apologies but there will be continuing corrections every time you exaggerate.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Tim. Very helpful. I now see the 999.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, SM. Very helpful. The 999 comes through.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • You have been called on indefensible allegations, JP, and demonstrate your character in refusing to acknowledge error and wrongdoing. I welcome identification by others of 'exaggerations' by me as an aid to learning. Misrepresentations of my remarks as you have done is another matter. Expect to be corrected further in future should you choose to repeat.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • DR ... Thanks to Tim and SM, I now see the 999 in Bay 15. Clearly, the locomotive was moved (from Bay 15 to Bay 10) sometime between the dates of the May and June photos.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Emotions are taking over...
    29 Jun 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • It's tough to avoid emotions when you're sitting in a crowded theater and the guy two rows up keeps arguing that there must be a FIRE.
    29 Jun 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv, I was agreeing with you that the engine number on the "May 15" picture was not "999"; it was unreadable to me. Seeing all this discussion, I downloaded it into Picasa, and played with several filters. Reversing black and white, plus some sharpening and de-graining, make it clear the loco has "999" on both sides.

     

    OTOH, all the EXIM info seems to have been deleted from the photo, so there is no data supporting that the photo is "real": no actual photo date, shutter speed, etc. EXIM data frequently get lost when people post photos, so its lack is not suspicious.
    1 Jul 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • >Bangwhiz — RE: "I don't think there is a prayer that BMW will ink a deal in Axion's name. They will ink a deal with somebody big enough to depend on for PbC's - not Axion. And if there has to be 2 somebodies outside of Axion that's going to take a deal maker far above my experience level to make happen."

     

    Hi Bang, would you care to share more on your bleak assessment of the BMW prospects? You seem to be saying Axion can’t make out by selling electrodes to battery companies that will use them to produce the reliable supply of PbCs BMW needs. I’ve long been of the notion that this is exactly the kind of business arrangement Axion has always been focused on as their long-term strategy.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • P.S. I believe another part of Axion's long-term strategy was to work with other battery suppliers to produce PbC electrodes on their own site, so they're not all produced in New Castle. My understanding is that this is what BMW is currently trying to facilitate, which all sounds very positive to me. --- I don't understand why BMW would be so heavily invested in making this happen if they didn't intend to go forward with the PbC in their S/S plans. It seems this is very likely to happen in the coming months, well within the time frame of Axion's current financial capabilities.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • WIO, I'd be glad to give my perspective on this topic since it will be the "x teenth" time I've done so.

     

    Automakers want to make sure that the parts they need for their product plans come from sources that can assure Cost, Quality and Delivery. As such they have established a tiered hierarchy of suppliers that they for the most part long standing relationships with that have the expertise and financial clout to give them the assurance they need to make this happen. For the most part the autos generally deal with tier 1 suppliers for systems/components that they do not make in house. These suppliers in turn have their own supply base that are deemed tier I2 and tier 3 suppliers. There are times when suppliers can be tier 1 and 2 for some reasons not worthy of discussion. But most often the tiers are layers and the tier supplier that is higher in the relationship is responsible for making sure all the suppliers that support their salable product are validated and monitored to make sure CQD are assured.

     

    The financial clout is an important factor becasue things can and do go wrong. Sometimes very wrong. When this happens the OEM wants to make sure that the supplier they are dealing with have the resources and the financial risk to manage the event without simply throwing in the towel. This still happens on rare occasion to suppliers that are serviced by lower tier suppliers but by having dual sourcing and alternate technologies among other tools these events are generally masked to the end consumer.

     

    So without going into too much detail we can see why BMW would not want to work directly with Axion once the program advances to the salable product phase. They will often help develop new technology but if it advances to there they want it for their business plans they want the supply chain to then revert to the structure that allows them to walk away and have a self correcting/managing system. The tier 1'a do this very well. Axion does not have the talent not the financial backing to give the confidence level that they can support the Cost and the Delivery parts of the 3 legged stool that gives the OEM's the assurance that they have a stable supplier that can hold together their piece of what is a very very complex system.
    28 Jun 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Iindelco, thanks for your detailed reply. But I'm a little confused, especially by your last sentence. I've assumed BMW has been facilitating arrangements to have Axion work cooperatively with battery companies that can meet all of BMW's needs. Are you saying this is not the case, or that Axion is not currently up to this?
    28 Jun 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne, Yes. If TG is sincere, which I believe to be the case, BMW would attempt to get a tier 1 battery supplier to negotiate a deal with Axion to bring the PbC battery to market for their needs. This obviously depends on an agreement being penned that meets the needs of all the parties concerned to meet BMW's timing and assure CQD. It would take the inclusion of BMW because they would have to share details like potential roll out timing, phased expansion plans, target pricing, potential markets and a ton of other details so that Axion and the battery supplier could develop internal business cases to see if it makes sense for their organizations as they proceed through negotiations for a potential deal.

     

    Sorry for the typos in the messages. It's genetic.
    28 Jun 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco> I've speculated several times that a battery manufacturer would not be likely to cut a deal with Axion without solid assurances from BMW. Your last post suggests that these kinds of assurances are pretty much SOP between automakers and their Tier 1 suppliers.

     

    Am I interpreting what you've said correctly?
    28 Jun 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • John, How on earth could a supply base possibly lay out hundreds of millions of dollars without signed agreements years before they are made public in such a low margin business. There is no way anyone is going to risk capital to tool up large facilities/whole plants without contracts in place in such a low margin business. That would be insane. And it takes years to launch many of these massive initiatives. Most programs I've worked on I knew about 2-3 years before they entered the public domain. And those were the one's where there were no huge technological jumps.

     

    For some of the far reaching very expensive development stuff there is even a level of cost sharing. The OEM's and their tier 1 suppliers live and die together.

     

    It all goes deeper than this but basically tier 1 suppliers need to know their customers future business plans at some level because they need to phase in new capacity along with phasing out old capacity as product plans morph. It all takes huge planning and remember that the OEM's primary goal are those three letters CQD. How can you assure efficiency if you're not dancing with your partner at a very high level?

     

    As an example we saw an announcement from JCI over the last year where they were building a new plant for AGM LAB's. In the announcement they indicated 70+ percent of the capacity was already spoken for. So what's their risk after you take after market and other uses for AGM batteries into account?

     

    Oh, And the contracts are for years with things like built in cost reductions and material cost adjustment based on the commodity markets as you can imagine.
    28 Jun 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • I'd always assumed that a first tier battery manufacturer wouldn't do a deal without Axion without solid assurances – but I hate stating things as facts unless I know them to be facts.

     

    Some questions are worth asking two or three times.
    28 Jun 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Do such agreements commonly include upfront cash?

     

    I'd like to dream that maybe the financiers are so eager to crush the stock now and get as many shares as they can now because they know they quite possibly the future installments will be repaid with cash.
    28 Jun 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • John, I rated TG's statement very high as a great sign of progress for the reasons I mentioned above. Still very complex though because you have to work through tons and tons of detail just to figure out where you can take this thing. For instance the potential partners would need to review Axion's process, materials list, where the program is, BMW's needs and a ton of other things and then impart the impact that their expertise would have on the costs based on BMW's plans. It's all not exactly hard, some of it might be a little challenging, but it's just reams and reams of data that needs to be worked through. And then it needs to be shared at some level with all parties after which the massaging and the give and take commences. Unfortunately it takes time because while the PbC battery is based on a boiler plate platform "It's not your father's Oldsmobile".

     

    And it's always harder when you're doing something complex and the best outcome is a near perfect launch and your margins are nuttin' to brag about. So little room for error. This is not like a build Beanie Babies business where you are making .25 USD bean bags and selling them for 5 USD. Could you get us in on one of those one's early! LOL
    28 Jun 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • I've already identified and am working very hard to jump start a Beanie Baby class project. I'll let you know if I make any progress.
    28 Jun 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, The agreement will be structured so that BMW gets CQD, Axion get's something that makes the most sense for them and the partner with all the other suppliers get something that makes sense as well.

     

    Remember that the last cash raise is not fixed in it's cost in shares to Axion. So an announcement would be just as good as some level of cash infusion. Or maybe Axion decides to push for more cash up front. It's all give and take but any way it's structured BMW will not let anything go forward that does not protect the cars coming off the end of the line(s) on time. It all comes down to the program and the level dead and dying to get there are secondary concerns. Each party has to protect their own interests to minimize the losses and maximize the bounty.

     

    For Axion it would be perhaps, at this time, a better task to decide how to get paid to improve their status vs trying to keep moving forward with the limited resources they have to beg from sharks. I could go for a bowl of shark fin soup right about now. I don't know what it tastes like but I can imagine I'd enjoy the hell out of it. :))
    28 Jun 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ahh John, You're too kind.

     

    You have to love entities that can come up with ideas that capture the public imagination for such items with margins like that. The same people that don't want to pay a dime for a battery but have to have a bean bag to keep their pet rock company.
    28 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Could it be that potential Axion partners were waiting for proof of automated carbon sheet production before proceeding with further negotiation? Hence the apparent "time holes" from testing to placing of (future) real orders. If it can't be automated it can't be mass produced. Yes?
    29 Jun 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, I think this would have been a big concern for BMW and any potential partners. As I indicated in an earlier post all the subsequent operations are probably a piece of cake by comparison. Having that in a verified automated process is a big step forward. And remember the importance of cost to automotive. It makes the PbC battery a far more viable solution. It adds additional contrast in the cost comparison vs it's competitors.

     

    Since we saw the big carbon buys at the end of last year without clear tracking sales in Q4 or Q 1 for PbC batteries it IMO shows that the focus on the automation process was probably the motivation for this activity. Remember that money was even tighter than normal.

     

    Anyway, my theory for what it's worth.
    29 Jun 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • June was the second biggest volume month in Axion's history with total reported volume of 12.6 million shares. The only month with a higher total was March 2011 at 13 million. I know we've all spent more than our fair share of time asking the eternal question "Who's doing all the selling?" Sometimes it's also worthwhile to remember the flip side of the market coin, "Who's doing all that buying?"
    28 Jun 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Let's Pretend:

     

    Hans is a battery maker of the highest order. Beemer loves him and does business with him. Beemer wants one of those new-fangled batteries made by Fred in the US. Fred has a modest demonstration line in a small Pennsylvania town. Beemer signs a deal with Hans & Franz, competitor to Hans. We're now all ready to rock'n'roll. Hans,& Franz tell Fred to keep his bleeping mouth shut about the deal.

     

    See, in order for this to work, Hans & Frans each have to build a brand new Pbc factory scaled up from the demonstrator Fred owns and place them next to factories they already have. Makes battery building so much easier you see. But if an announcement is made ........ regardless of the screaming of Fred ...... real estate and power prices will skyrocket near the intended facilities. Makes everything so much more difficult.

     

    Doesn't happen? To the contrary, gentle reader. This is precisely the road taken by GM in building the Saturn plant in Spring Hill, TN. Also exactly what has unfolded in the building of auto plants by Toyota, Nissan, & BMW here in the United States. Nobody knew squat until the land was bought and the power plants had assured agent attorneys for said companies they ( the utilities) could perform . I have firsthand knowledge of each of these plants as part of my career.

     

    Is that what's happening with Axion? No clue. Do I think it's likely? Nah, I think an electrode facility would be a modest expansion. But do I know that as a fact ? Hell no. However, I'm guessing that a plant may be built here in the ol' USA first. And that could be a biggie. If it's done in Austria, Germany, or Italy, even a modest expansion is hugely expensive for real estate alone.

     

    Here's what I do know as certainly as God made little green apples:

     

    1) Doing this deal is going to be complicated. Very complicated.

     

    2) The capital outlay will be significant. Three big places millions? Nah, I wouldn't think. But even $80 million is serious bucks.

     

    3) If a new facility is being considered, research would be done on site cost, labor cost, and utility capacity.

     

    4) The complications are beyond imagining and guaranteed is the fact that there will be a very nasty surprise these folks didn't anticipate.

     

    Stuff like we want to think about is so complex, and so expensive, that we would be astounded if we knew. I have no clue or even suspicion that ANY of this is unfolding. But I've seen lots of stuff like this before and it's never easy. And BTW, the very last people to know something is being done are stockholders who read about it in the paper the next morning in a press release from the biggest dog in the show. Axion ain't the biggest dog.

     

    The dancers may already chosen partners. Deals may have already been inked. Sometimes you simply don't know nuthin' 'til it's done.

     

    Not sayin'. Just sayin.

     

    To ignite e-power however. Now that's a plausible quick ignition.

     

    My ten bucks is still waiting. :>)
    28 Jun 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • OT

     

    http://bit.ly/153ErBk
    28 Jun 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    thanks for that. I have not heard that in ages and it's a classic.

     

    It's among the best.

     

    In the operating department we used to have a computer file that used to annoy MIS (no such thing as IT in those days). That file had the "best" (favorite) BBQ joints across the southeast. No matter what town you were in you could call your office and get the name of the best BBQ closest to you. And since we traveled so very much ....

     

    We also had a list of the top ten country songs of all time. We liked to bicker. :>) "Little Green Apples" sometimes showed up on the list.

     

    Thanks.
    29 Jun 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: made me nostalgic for a time long gone.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2013, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, yeah, but look at the bright side. We got rap now as well.
    30 Jun 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco-

     

    I've been thinking about this BMW deal more and more. Previously I thought the language that they didn't want a sole source supplier meant that they would accept AXPW as the only supplier but wanted a second. The more I think about it I think they want two suppliers (Hans und Franz, ja). I've also lowered my expectations on the margin for AXPW with some sort of deal, aligning more to a licensing or royalty fee like APMarshall suggested in an earlier post. Especially if Hans and Franz are building the Electrode facility themselves. We know that AXPW doesn't have the cash to do so. (If I would have seen a financing transaction similar to 2012s where the cash was upfront it would be a maybe).

     

    I've long assumed the reason for the patent in Feb of the carbon sheeting process ties into this. I would assume that AXPW would prefer to keep it a trade secret vs something that could be copied unless they knew that they would be turning the process over to other battery mfgs and collecting a license/royalty instead.

     

    This is all my idle speculation but it has dampened my mood as I've let it sink in over the past few days.

     

    All-Appreciate the quality discussion in the thread. Thanks.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty you may have hit the nail on the head with the patent reasoning.
    28 Jun 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Holty, Concerning the sheeting process. I think the big carbon buy last year we were all excited about was Axion getting this process commercialized. For me this is the one process that had all the risk. I think BMW was making hints they were happy but this process had them very concerned. All the subsequent processes are as complex as scratching your head by comparison. Once Axion showed them the output from this stage of the automated process that had supporting data on variation reduction and top level product improvement the Axion team and the BMW team shared a group "Smile like a Cheshire cat" moment. That TG was giddy when he commented on this made me almost feel the same. What a great announcement. I hope KT had a big grin on his face and shared in that moment as well.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mrholty
    According to the transcript: Axion wants to work with more than one battery manufacturer.
    BMW however is only introducing them to one

     

    ATM.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... I was hoping that ePower demonstrating their truck on the Cummins test track was with Gen 2 PbC's and there was either a BMW engineer there or it got reported to them. Just to serve as first blush conformation of the improved quality of the sheeting process in application. Closer inspection would, of course, be necessary.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • Both Cummins visits came after the Gen2 batteries were installed in the ePower truck.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I can't speak for what is shared between the various customers but I would expect that BMW is making Axion put stakes in the ground for each design iteration and reporting out when deliverables are closed on their issues lists based on BMW's program launch requirements. They have very regimented program phases that have all the requirements spelled out on what must be completed in what time frame as you can well imagine. You can bet the sheeting process automation was a big deliverable.

     

    They knew how it was progressing each step of the way unlike us.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... I've been down the ISO9000 process documentation trail in the semiconductor industry. Nothing is overlooked. Everything is written down. Couldn't change a lightbulb without providing a paper trail from the ground the materials came out of to end-of-life recycle content. As well as a complete handling history along with commission/decommission procedure. I'm sure autos aren't any better

     

    It certainly makes changing brands or vendors or, god forbid, something new & different into a lengthy, nightmarish hell-on-earth endeavor.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, It's almost always painful. But as you've been through it many times you start to understand that it makes sense. But alas, too much of the efficiency pain came from the individuals that "just administrated to the book". Or the fact that you were already so busy you couldn't see straight.

     

    Be there or be square. Treats and a "free" lunch. Weekends with no treats to catch up.
    29 Jun 2013, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. Holty, When TG mentioned that BMW wanted a dual source I immediately read between the lines. This was easy for me because all along I've held the position that Axion was IMO never going to be a tier one supplier to automotive. TG's words were to me that BMW wants to find someone that can industrialize this product to the scale we need to support our CQD requirements.

     

    This is not a bad thing. It's always better to do what you do very well and to find partners that do what they do very well. Let the guy with years of experience interfacing with the OEM's and nurturing suppliers do what he has proven he can do well. Meanwhile learn from him and manage your piece of the puzzle.

     

    Then what's Axion have? They have the solid footing and the stamp of approval to take their technology to the other areas where there are better rewards. All while automotive uses tools Axion could only dream of to squeeze every bit of waste out of their product. That's when the fireworks would really begin. Imagine PbC with a material cost that's a few dollars more than AGM and a production cost that's only a few dollars more. That's where automotive takes you. They will not reward you for it. You have to take your expertise and your product and move it to other areas and as we've discussed the technology has application.

     

    Our short term mission is to get away from the "bad words" on Wall Street ASAP. The tech. has a great future. It's not going to displace anyone. It's going to find it's own places because it does some things for certain applications that the others can't do or can't do for the money. As John has said, "We need them all".
    28 Jun 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks IIn-

     

    Do you think that BMW would accept AXPW as a supplier for a short term until Tier 1 suppliers A and B get it all worked out? Otherwise we are looking at MY 2016 at the earliest...

     

    BTW, just in case someone is wondering - I searched for who the current OEM for the X3 is and according to a youtube video its Exide. Imagine that... ;)
    28 Jun 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Holty, I think that BMW would support such a transition if Axion had a signed deal with their partner, the plan included support by the partner, the risk to the program was low concerning QCD and the path to industrialization was laid out with low risk of implementation. This is not a small achievement.

     

    However, The risk would be directly related to the launch plans over time. IF the initial program was low volume like 20 - 30 k vehicles and the next increment of capacity was in a time frame all the partners and suppliers agreed was low risk I could see a yeah.

     

    But not until Axion has a partner on board. Why? Because Axion's cost will be nowhere near where it needs to be for broad roll out. Their supply chain is not leveraged, logistics not industrialized, plant not up to date, and a million other things the partner brings to the party. BMW might be willing to pay extra for a year of Axion supply on a low volume vehicle to get the added field data to reduce the risk for a later steeper ramp. Remember, risk not just in Axion's PbC battery but the whole system in the vehicle. All the better if they have an alternate energy storage battery for back-up. And they could always ask the customer to turn it off for a short period and compensate them because this would most likely not inhibit vehicle function.

     

    So possible yes. Likely, Less so. But I do like the thought of a low volume program prior to large scale commercial roll out. That's what GM used Caddy for. New stuff to a market that wants new and shiny with lower volume platforms.
    28 Jun 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... And might I add the Axion has said for years now that they don't want to be in the battery business. Axion wants to build electrodes. That starts in New Castle but the hope is to be a live in supplier within a Tier 1 supplier fab. The more lines Axion can own, manage or whatever is agreed to in as many locations as possible then reliability of electrode availability increases. If anyone is aware of this it would be BMW.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks DRich, Understood and I agree with this business model. I'm not sure their automotive partner will allow this but I understand Axion's motivation. If I was controlling the program for their partner I'd push like heck for a license agreement. I'd want Axion to participate but want total responsibility and control of my own destiny. With what I have for data this is what I'd push for.

     

    If I had more information that there was a cost effective way to verify the sheeting material I might leave that with Axion. I'd want electrode assembly. I'm the assembly expert and I'm sure their partner will better optimize the negative electrode line. That's good for all parties. But Axion would need to support it because they are the product experts for some period.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    "They have the solid footing and the stamp of approval to take their technology to the other areas where there are better rewards. All while automotive uses tools Axion could only dream of to squeeze every bit of waste out of their product. That's when the fireworks would really begin. Imagine PbC with a material cost that's a few dollars more than AGM and a production cost that's only a few dollars more. That's where automotive takes you. They will not reward you for it. You have to take your expertise and your product and move it to other areas and as we've discussed the technology has application."

     

    A couple of questions about this. Do you have a sense of what potential volumes might be in automotive total? I have assumed that if things went well the PbC could be used in millions of cars. Even if we got a $10 per car profit (or license) that would make the profit from automotive many times today's total market cap. So even if there are more profitable areas that would still be a home run from where we are today.

     

    Second, how confident are you that Axion will actually be to execute and find the other applications. Rick's comments from the previous concentrator around the level of secrecy were very concerning to me. It seems like Axion is very difficult to work with. Given the unique characteristics of the battery the best application may be in something that we don't know yet and does not traditionally use batteries.

     

    Thanks.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Jcrjg, As I indicated in my message above I could see the PbC getting far closer to the cost of AGM than it is today. Think about what that means to automotive if we're now it's in the let's use 250 USD range for an appropriate sized PbC battery. Remember that automotive is going to dissect this thing and do a value added analysis based on how AGM is produced today and it's really an accurate way to do an assessment.

     

    BMW is not investing all this time and money for a hundred thousand units. And while we like to differentiate one auto maker from the next they really have far more in common than the unique things that set the various entities apart. So once one automaker uses it and it starts working the rest will be forced to up their game.

     

    The Japanese are telling you this application has no clear winner and the Americans / Chinese have not put a stake in the ground yet. But the Europeans have already said AGM works. Yeah right. If it was a screaming success copying is easy.

     

    Unless Lithium ion can find some huge leaps in cost savings I see millions.

     

    I will not speak for Rick. However with an automotive stamp of approval and the cost structure mentioned above Axion's ability to market itself would be night and day different vs where they are today. My impression is that Rick is talking about where Axion stands today. And we can see how important small incremental sales would be today. Axion's secrecy is not good for the path to additional sales channels that while not huge would be very important given where they are right now. But we also need to recognize that almost all big ideas start out small.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    Thanks, I appreciate your insights as always. I agree with everything you said. I have always been excited about the automotive application for the reason you stated of bringing down costs and giving credibility. I agree things will be much easier once the cash situation has eased, the axion folks will have more confidence and customers will be more receptive. But if we are to find some totally new application, as John has suggested, those will take a while and they need to make it easy for those folks to begin testing now because as you point out those big ideas start small.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • I've long been secretly hoping that BMW would be trying to hit a 2015 Model Year and specifically the BMW X4. The BMW Spartanburg plant makes only the X vehicles (X3, X5, and X6) and the X4 would be a natural launch of this as it should be a smaller run.

     

    2012 Sales (worldwide)
    X3 - 149k
    X4 -
    X5 - 108k
    X6 - 43k

     

    Assume that BMW (which has said in the past that the X6 didn't cannibalize sales of the X5 are true and you could see the X4 sell 40-50k units. It also ties into the logic that the facility is to put out 300-350k vehicles annually. Based on the numbers above its already close to 300k.

     

    It was first officially announced it was coming in Dec 2012, prototype was skipped at Detroit in Feb 2013 and launced in April in Shanghai. Orders are supposed to be accepted in the fall with availability in April 2014. I think it may be too tight for a build out of a new facility but to drop in to the existing AGMs that are currently supplying the plant for the X3, X5 and X6 maybe just maybe.

     

    I've also been pondering the comments by Mr. Buiel about confusion of the testing in Germany and the comments from Mr Buiel that the testing regimine at the facility is for lead-acid which wouldn't be useful for AXPW. However we don't know what sort of testing was done there. Would it make sense that BMW would have tested batteries made by AXPW in AXPW to create a baseline for electrodes made in a different facility for SLA (service level agreements)? It would also potentially tell BMW if AXPW could make a consistent product at their facility for the first X batteries in the X4 while a plan was being worked out for the rest of the X vehicles. Just to let everyone know I am not some wild-eyed pollyanna I don't we are going to see it on the new X5 out this fall.

     

    Lots of speculation and guessing but I am trying to put what I know in front of me into some order. My biggest question at this point is when is the AGM going to be announced. My guess is TG is not an idiot and wants some good news otherwise he will see 10-20 frustrated Axionistas and a few others trying to sneak away and find the carbon sheeting process.

     

    Just think last year we were all trying to determine how many batteries were in a pallet, what and who there were for. We've come a long way. (and down 50%).
    28 Jun 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Ok - just a little refresher on what was said in the past:
    1. The lab that the batteries came from is a LEAD ACID BATTERY testing lab. They complete, in addition to other lead acid battery testing, standard homologation testing from German OEMs. Homologation testing, for those not in the industry, is the type of testing used to qualify a battery/supplier for use by an OEM. This lab is not somewhere that a new technology like PbC would go for testing. This would come straight from the automaker.
    2. The weight works out to be exactly the right amount of weight for the right amount of lead acid batteries (including a small amount of weight for the pallet) to complete the VDA homologation testing. See previous post.

     

    I know you guys are all thinking that Axion is sending PbC batteries to Germany but anyone who works in this industry would say no way and the weight is EXACTLY RIGHT for L5/H8 AGM batteries which is EXACTLY what they use today.
    5 Jul 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Dr, Buiel. Thanks again for reinforcing this point.

     

    So I still am confounded concerning what the purpose of this testing would be. I can't imagine BMW is looking at Axion as an AGM supplier given their dated battery plant and its lack of automotive certification.

     

    Any thoughts that make sense to you as it might relate to PbC. Would this level of testing have any meaning as some level of partial PbC testing given they share some common features/assembly operations.
    5 Jul 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Dr. B,

     

    I take on board your comments but the nagging questions are,

     

    Why would Axion send standard lead acid batteries to Germany for testing?

     

    What would be the point?

     

    Does Axion want to be a lead acid battery supplier to the German car industry? Everything we know points in the opposite direction. We believe that Axion only wants to make the electrodes for PbC batteries and not bog standard lead acid batteries in a market that it can never hope to be competative in.

     

    Why would this testing agency not be interested in testing the PbC battery? Surely someone must need to do independent testing of the PbC technology in Europe, why not them?
    5 Jul 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • There was a lot of work done at Axion to understand why lead acid batteries do not accept charge quickly. See all of the Buiel and later Dickinson conference proceedings on this subject. Their have been lots of slides showing lead acid working very well when brand new or after an equalization charge. It is only when you let the battery sit that the charge acceptance dies as a result of sulfate crystal growth on the negative electrode. Amazingly, few people are trying anything to make lead acid batteries better even though there is lots of low hanging fruit that you could pick from.... I left Axion a few years ago and I am not aware of what they have done since I left. I am also going to divulge publicly available information on this website as I do not want to be accused of leaking company proprietary information which really would not be fair to Axion. With that said, if the automobile companies had an advanced lead acid battery that could meet their requirements and provide higher charge acceptance that solves the start/stop problems that they are facing, don't you think this would be an awesome product considering start/stop will be a standard feature offered world-wide in the near future?
    7 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • "With that said, if the automobile companies had an advanced lead acid battery that could meet their requirements and provide higher charge acceptance that solves the start/stop problems that they are facing, don't you think this would be an awesome product considering start/stop will be a standard feature offered world-wide in the near future?"

     

    Ed, so therefore................ (fill in the blanks for all of us simple folk).
    7 Jul 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • I've often asked myself who would go through the effort to develop a LAB that works considerably better for SS. Would the incumbents do so when they have a big chunk of the SS market and enjoy the current replacement cycle? How about the LAB suppliers that are more successful than the OEM suppliers because they have avoided OEM since the automakers turn almost everything into a commodity and squeeze your lemons for every last drop? Companies like East Penn and Enersys as examples. So what's the incentive when the automakers are going to come in and do a value added assessment and say. "Hey. this is just AGM with plus this and minus that. This is what we'll pay, AGM plus this and we'll let you thin your R&D over x years. Take it or leave it." I think there are many reasons the automakers don't always get creative advancents in some areas. I think the LAB area is one for sure.

     

    Oh, And don't forget to add into the equation that gevernemnts would like to eliminate lead all together. Or just make life miserble along the way. So you want to invest long term in LAB's for what?

     

    So from a technical viewpoint I think you're right but from a commercial standpoint? I think it's going to be smaller LAB suppliers that bring advancements. Oh, and burn some good capital along the way trying to do so.
    7 Jul 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • NADA: Used Plug-In Vehicles Burdened With Highest Depreciation of All Vehicle Segments
    http://bit.ly/153RPpk
    “Values for used plug-in electric vehicles are expected to decline nearly 30% this year–the highest depreciation out of all vehicle segments.”

     

    If you want to read NADA's PDF
    http://bit.ly/153RPFy
    28 Jun 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey, But you save money on oil changes and your brakes last a long time. <Snark>
    28 Jun 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • NADA, the group desperately fighting to stop Tesla from selling directly to consumers. Right. It's hardly surprising that early models of new technology might drop in value more quickly. Nissan dropped it's price on the LEAF $6k this year, no surprise that last years models would take a hit. Early adopters pay to play.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • JRP3, That's very true. It costs much to be first in line.

     

    So I guess emphasizing how much would be saved on oil changes and brake jobs was a little silly given some of the more significant factors involved.

     

    I'm guessing this is going to go on for some time. But then autos don't fair so well on maintaining their value anyway. Especially the high end cars with unique features because they cost so much to repair.
    30 Jun 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • "So I guess emphasizing how much would be saved on oil changes and brake jobs was a little silly given some of the more significant factors involved."

     

    You mean like saving thousands in fueling costs? I agree, that is more significant. Eventually the market will figure out the real value of a used EV, especially one that can easily be upgraded to the latest and greatest battery pack technology in less than 2 minutes if one so desires.
    1 Jul 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, The fuel is worth talking about. But then some states are starting to propose adding the tax loss factor back into that equation.

     

    The battery point, It all comes down to cost. Maybe if the resale value gets low enough and the batteries don't come down EV's with 20 mile range will be the next "Winter Rats"? Then the poor college kid can get front row parking and a free charge. Kool!
    1 Jul 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Most if not all automakers do not keep parts in house as to limit the space wasted, all the major parts are shipped on time to the line and it makes total sense that BMW would want both the electrode and battery close at hand to avoid shutting the line down for even one minute.

     

    Trust me when I say this, if that line is down for a any amount of time let alone a minute it's hell to pay for everyone. If Axion missed a shipment from the plant in new castle then that's when everyone on this board should consider selling. It's a very big deal so it is in Axions best interest to keep big brother happy.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Ryan, Just to build on your point.

     

    I've worked for entities that have come close to and have shut plants down. As you say you do not want to do this. I recall numbers like 7 million USD an hour for a car plant and 12 million an hour for a truck plant.That was years ago so I'm sure it's far more now. These are round numbers for direction as each plant is different. Toyota in Georgetown KY kept some safety stock on site but it was minimal (8 hours). This was not for all components but depended on geographic risks. Some suppliers will rent "Flow through" warehouses near the assy plant to manage the risk but it's on their nickle. Ideally many component suppliers will build near a plant but you still have supply risks from tier 2 suppliers etc. Dual sourcing and some level of safety stock mitigates risk and they are used but they are considered waste (muda) yet a necessary evil to be minimized.

     

    Your right. This is a deadly sin and you do not want to be responsible for such an event.
    28 Jun 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco, thanks for that, very true in all respects.

     

    I work for a major car maker and we do have engines on hand that will last eight hours, components like that are on hand. The flow through warehouse is right across the street and does have most parts that are picked , packed and shipped. Most other suppliers are within an hours drive from us but the big guys like the engines come from the US. If its determined that it was the suppliers fault then they will be billed a substantial number.

     

    Compared to BMW we are a far behind their quality and quality control so I can only imagine how stiff they are on such events.
    28 Jun 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Ryan for sharing your points.

     

    Fun but demanding industry! Glad to have a person with your background on the board. It's a big industry and very broad. You'll never see it all!
    28 Jun 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • JP > "I really wish you'd get your facts straight and quit adding supplemental assertions that have no basis in fact."

     

    Good advice for you to follow, JP. No where have I stated that NSC has introduced anything more to its operations than preparations for purchase of a pack of Corvus batteries via pursuit of federal grant funds for that purpose. I MOST CERTAINLY noted that another firm had developed within the past year a probable competitor switcher locomotive built in part around a Corvus Energy Li-ion battery pack.

     

    Whether AMPS is operating in Altoona, Pa or thousands of miles away from Altoona, its hybrid switcher locomotive is a competitor to NSC's Altoona shops NS999 switcher. NSC's Altoona shops rebuilds locomotives for many rail companies, not just NSC. That Altoona shops rebuilds locomotives for multiple rails is "basis in fact." NSC R&D investment in NS 999-type (BEL) switchers almost certainly anticipated marketing of the BEL rebuilds to other rails as well as replication of model for its own use. In fact, the probable market size for rebuilds of BEL switchers has been discussed multiple times on various APCs. If NSC did not anticipate building BELs for other railroads, I question their use of resources to patent their model and probably should downgrade my assessment of NSC management.

     

    In short, I find your remark about getting "your facts straight" ill considered, lacking in imagination, and/or disingenuous.

     

    With respect to Valleywood commentary on NSC, I call your attention to
    <
    "I left NS in 2003; that's ten years ago. What I "know" about NS operations is obsolete. What I know of NS is still valid. It is a deliberate and cautious company that moves decisively when it moves. It does not operate in joint ventures of discovery with anything it does not see as the gold standard. From my perspective NS regards Axion very highly. That is really all I need to make decisions."
    <

     

    From where I sit that paragraph suggests NSC has yet to settle on Axion's PbC "the gold standard" since it has yet to move decisively in fielding the battery and it has taken up a new "joint venture of discovery" on a li-ion chemistry in league with the federal government.

     

    JP > "I can't remember the last comment you made that wasn't shaded to the negative if not outright false. It's really beginning to bother me that you've been around for a long time but don't seem to have an existence beyond the Concentrators."

     

    If you can not remember a comment by me that wasn't "shaded to the negative", I find your memory exceedingly short. I will not stand for your allegation of my making "outright false" remarks. Prove false statements by me or APOLOGIZE forthwith.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... You need to substantiate your allegations with something at least as flimsy as photos of a locomotive moved between workstations inside the shop. The photos show the continuing invisibility of NS 999 to the public means NSC is going slowly for reasons of their own which could be numerous and innocuous. There is nothing, unless you would like to provide it, that " ... suggests that the relationship is on life support if not terminated."

     

    I am anxious to see the NS999 because I want it to go into head-to-head competition with diesel gensets, Li-on, battery/fuelcell, NatGas and the like as soon as possible. I worry about missing the 2017-2025 rebuild cycle with a less expensive, lower emission, oil conserving solution.
    28 Jun 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I'd appreciate some perspective on your comment regarding the " 2017-2025 rebuild cycle". Typically driven by artificial forces (read government) but alas very important.
    29 Jun 2013, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... The rebuild cycle just is and always. I don't understand the artificial force you see, but I don't understand much of what is considered common to the belief system here and that is OK.

     

    The coming air & water standards upgrade has been in progress since the 1970's which arose from citizen & industry concerns during the 1950's. So, contrary to the yelping we hear coming out of the box from the true dinosaurs of capitalism, it is no surprise to any of the affected industries things have to change on somewhat arbitrary time schedule. The years, let's call it Resource Conservation Phase 2, between 2015 & 2025 are designated as compliance implementation. The standards might be rushed, unworkable, unrealistic or unobtainable. I don't know but the effort is in progress and is required to show some results by 2015. The railroads don't have quite as many options as many other industries have. Loads won't get lighter. Locomotives won't get lighter. Aerodynamic shaping of trains is marginal. The route network right-of-ways were originally laid out for maximum efficiency starting about 150 years ago. That leaves them with roadbed, rail shape and motive power as most likely areas of conservation improvement. Two of these areas have been in process for 20 or 30 years with piered concrete ties, continuous welded rail, etc. and continue with things like Norfolk Southern's new shaped rail upgrade. That brings me to motive power.

     

    Over the past 2 decades some remarkable things have been done to diesels. New materials, better mechanical devices, computer controls all making more power in relatively smaller packages. So much so that in the 1990's to early 2000's Union Pacific got behind the the idea of redundant, modular engines on a single frame and the genset came to be. An immediate success because of its power plant(s). Their capital value over time remains an open question. They do cost about 6x more, but they do solve the coming emissions problems, noncompliance fines and lower current operations cost. Norfolk apparently went in a different direction during this time period by exploring generator/battery platform of the Rail Power GreenGoat. I say apparently because Altoona was where kit fabrication was done for Rail Power and when the Goat failed Norfolk Southern (which I think owned 3(?) of them) took 15(?) of them as repayment of a loan. Norfolk was late to the game when it came to gensets because it wasn't until 2007 they started building them in earnest for other roads. They hadn't given up on battery power, as we all know, by rushing, in retrospect, the build of the NS999 failure and "wisely" turning to Axion's PbC as a last ditch effort. Last ditch because they said they'd tested every other battery chemistry out there to failure and Axion didn't really have a viable product ready at the time (2009-2010). Anyway you look at it Norfolk had lost the 2015-2017 commercialization window as orders came in for gensets. There was not going to be viable alternative and the industry has a definite bias toward diesel.

     

    I quite understood Norfolks' long slow (seemingly forever) test regime. I figured they would build some for demonstrators and internal use locos to meet the 2015-17 window. Looks like I was wrong on that score and I did get nervous about the project status when battery testing was complete and no order came for the installation set. When it did, delivery took nearly a year and BP4 sat in storage. I don't know why but it was not good for my nerves. Moving it to the Round Table helped ... a little. Then another shock. Gerhard Thelen was retiring (might explain some of the delay) to be replaced by someone, best I could tell, with more interest in the train movement electronics than the iron. Anxiety level rises, a feeling of depression set in and BP4 sat idle. After that I read that Norfolk Southern orders 27(?) more genset switchers internally and BP4 sat with no battery delivery. I'm near depression at this point with visions of the rails once again giving up on battery power. This time without even allowing failure of happen in the field (which I haven't believed a possibility since before BP4). Now, at long last, it is in the shop. What's going on ... I haven't a clue, but it is in the shop. If only it would start rolling.

     

    Anyway, back to what you asked about. Since the railroads have missed the build window for battery power to meet the new standards, I'm guessing, BP4 will eventually emerge into trials. It will take Norfolk Southern's own sweet time to get that task done but there is no rush. They have at least 2 years to work out the kinks and build next gen and/or demonstrators. Road & yard switchers can extend the 5 year rebuild cycle of the mainline locos and are often owned by short line companies that have less to spend. The bulk of the current genset build cycle started in about 2007 and peaked the order book in about 2011-12. I figure the next rebuild cycle will be 2017-2025. I hope NSC has actually finished battery locomotive testing by then. This guess could be skewed further because of the increased initial capital costs of gensets. I hope not. I don't give up a thesis easily. So, being the Green Goat is my choice for road & yard switching, I look to the next maintenance cycle as a retrofit to batteries. It is an idea I know that appeals to some in the industry over gensets or battery only.

     

    Sorry for rambling on and eating so much space.
    30 Jun 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks DRich. That explains a lot.

     

    I understand your reasoning concerning how they might now take more time validating the battery storage concept opportunities. I however would think they would still want to be somewhat aggressive so they could get at least some small numbers of units out in service for a year or two to make sure the concept does or does not work for the next rebuild cycle. Also as far as the OTR units are concerned many are leased. So in this case having a technology that reduces the need for ICE powered units might be layered in at any time if they make sense. Does this make sense?

     

    As a side note, I've seen NS doing a bunch of bridge raising as well to allow stacking. I'm assuming this also adds efficiency and capacity?

     

    Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. Not long winded at all. It's a very complex topic. With a lot going on besides just the technology.
    30 Jun 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, DRich, I'll echo iinde's comments.

     

    The bottom line for me is when do you think orders for PbCs will arrive in significant numbers? In 2017, or before then? JP has commented many times that he believes NS will need to have 100-150 or so of PbC test locos on the rails (well) before 1/1/2015. It doesn't seem that you're saying anything even remotely close to that, and you're our resident railroad expert (like it or not!).
    30 Jun 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • I truly hate being misquoted, particularly when the misquote creates baseless expectations and attributes them to me.

     

    I said NS is staring down the barrel of EPA regulations that take effect in 2015 and that for NS to make a credible case to the regulators it will need to have a statistically significant fleet of battery-electric locomotives working to prove or disprove the utility of the concept. I also opined that a "statistically valid" fleet would probably entail 100 to 150 units. I would love to see NS ramp to that level before 2015. I have never said it will do so by a date certain.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • >Mr Investor ... Thanks for the vote of confidence, but if I'm THE expert we are all well & truly doomed. I admit to an intense interest and a shallow pool of knowledge. I have met & know a few that could be considered expert.

     

    Now when PbC orders will start is shrouded because we need to see successful field trials. I don't think just one will get the job done. NS999 rolling around is like proof of concept. Trials can been done with very few demonstrators ... say 5 or 20. I really have no way of guessing because much would depend on whether Norfolk adopts this as commercial product (a very large world market) or an internal competitive advantage (a very small market currently scheduled to be serviced by mostly gensets). Things could change quickly and I will only be able to venture a guess from trials.

     

    But you want to know when orders would start, so I'm going to make the rash assumption field trials progress quickly with stellar results. In this case orders might start showing late 2014 and building in numbers into 2016. What? .... You want to know quantity? I don't know and can only guess poorly. In the event of building for NSC & its short lines, a BP4 program could be something like 25 to 75 per year. If NSC wants to go global itself or through Corman and NRE, then the numbers could be 250 to 500 per year rush or just roughly 150-300 per year in rebuild until the technology gets displaced.

     

    There is my rosy scenario WAG. Then there is the battery hybrid project that I know absolutely nothing about beyond the patent. It could be good for a dollar or two ... someday. It would be a much larger world market and about the same if kept internal.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Much appreciated, DRich. Excellent post---I should have asked you earlier!
    1 Jul 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks , i always appreciate yours and every other axionista insights as well.

     

    Not even close to seeing it all but i would like to get a hold of a line worker from Axion and get the 411 from them. The rumor mill is faster then the internet in places like that and think they would have a lot of great inside info for us.

     

    pack of smokes or a case of beer will open up a few doors unless they to have signed the NDA will have come to love.

     

    I wonder if any of the workers have purchased shares and have been buying or selling in bulk.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ryan I am right there with you. I p,an on hitting the local bar before the AGM this year (if possible).
    28 Jun 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • A thought just occurred to me...

     

    My biggest sock drawer fear is the Snidely Whiplash will somehow snooker everyone and we will all be left holding the bag. It just dawned on me that Snidely might find himself in a swarm of angry Axionista's that together could raise a sizeable army against him. But then who needs an army when you have Dudley (JP) Doright...

     

    Edit: a new power of the APC that I hope we never need.
    28 Jun 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • OT: When long-time participants begin sniping at each other, I think it wise to step back and consider:
    - different folks remember different things more or less strongly;
    - some folks see negatives more easily and some see positives more easily;
    - we all bring different backgrounds and POVs to the endeavor;
    - we should keep these things (about ourselves and others) in mind when posting;
    - presumption of intentional distortion is likely ill-founded and we should keep that in mind when composing our posts;
    - the stress caused by many factors related to Axion has a natural side-effect of making folks more irritable;
    - as adults it is incumbent on each of us to mitigate the negative aspects these side-effects.

     

    Our strength comes from the first three items above - they should not become arrows in the quiver of internecine warfare. Envisioning us as homogeneous in terms of skill sets, available time, memory capacity, ... or any other trait and expecting "they" would do it the way we do, or reach the same conclusion, or take the time we do or, ... is a mistake.

     

    Except for real trolls, I believe we should always treat each other as we would like to be treated - presumption of innocence until proven otherwise comes to mind. "Brutal honesty" is best applied sparingly and only when it seems likely to produce the desired results, ignoring ego gratification of course.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2013, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • OK Dad. I've been a little defensive of late and I'm sorry. I'll try to do better.
    29 Jun 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Well put, HTL.

     

    I would add to that the idea that knowlege can be illusory, as evidenced by the perceptual problem in seeing the 999 or seeing it as 6557. So we must approach our perceptions with a questioning and open mind, and compare our view to others to understand the inherent uncertainty of "knowing" the truth.
    29 Jun 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • 2:31 PM Angela Merkel helped to block a vote on an EU measure designed to curb automobile emissions. The German Chancellor expressed concerns on how the rules would impact jobs as she pushed for "prudence" on sweeping emissions laws over speed. What to watch: The ball now falls into the hands of Lithuania as it take over the rotating presidency of the bloc and will be tasked with deciding when the issue comes up for a vote. One automaker closely watching the developments is Ford (F -0.6%) with its EcoBoost engine a major asset if emissions reform is passed. [Consumer, Global & FX] 1 Comment
    29 Jun 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, I think you're spot on.

     

    I've ridden two companies shares into the ground. To get the LT loss for tax use had to have Fidelity or Schwab to buy all my shares for a penny. It makes you feel stupid. Bad judgement. Probably indicates I'm a bad person and God doesn't love me. Poor sexual performer. The list goes on and on.

     

    But the prospect of that disaster is far worse than the actual event. Afterwards, the sun comes up in the morning. Your dog still loves you. Your wife never left. A cup of coffee still tastes great. Life is still good.

     

    We each have a choice. Each of us has probably lost what we consider to be a LOT of money. Yet most of us still believe and hang on or ( gasp! ) buy more. We double down on our greed so-to-speak. Some of us sell most/part/all and what we fear now is that the rocket will take off without us on board. No matter who we are (there are a few exceptions) we are investors or wannabes of good intention and pure heart. But sometimes one of use pushes our hot button of ....... let's call it fear/greed for lack of an honest term.... and react against them rather than their idea. We can choose another road.

     

    I've been here only a few short weeks, yet already I feel as though I'm among friends. Kinda like the local pub where we can argue over which pastrami tastes best or whose football team has the best defensive backs. Truth is we can come here and be swimming in our misery and hope someone fetches us. Or we can be hopelessly optimistic and wait for someone to call us out. But whatever the case we've become what I think is essentially a support group made necessary by a stream of seemingly bad news with no anesthetic supplied by Axion PR. This like being pecked to death by a duck !

     

    Whatever the case, we must choose to protect one another. Hell, we don't know anything good or bad. We just think we know. Suspicion is a dreadful destroyer. I say we slice & dice the trollers and then annoy one another with a smile. Right now we're all losing money together. How great is that ! ! !

     

    I believe (with zero evidence whatsoever ) that we are standing on the brink of something cool. Might we fall? Sure can. Right now I don't see any wings under my feet. But I believe in physics and I believe in great ideas. I'm still nibbling and still dreaming. I still believe in Axion.

     

    Does the race always go to the swift and the strong? Nope. Not always. But that's the way to bet.
    29 Jun 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • ...

     

    Pecked to death by ducks
    Axionistas unite
    To just think we know.

     

    ...
    29 Jun 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • SM,

     

    Both my dogs and my wife wonder why I'm laughing. I refuse to tell them.

     

    I'll just let them think they know. :>)
    29 Jun 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Another talent revealed!
    A challenge for all
    In times of slow news.
    29 Jun 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Of lead and carbon
    Our questions are countered with
    Ineffableness.
    29 Jun 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin: you shouldn't have said that! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Everyone, this has been (and still is) a great forum. I have posted only once before but maybe represent a number of folks who read your comments with appreciation. We just don't have much to offer in return. I bought some Axion in '09, then sold it within a year. Then reinvested to the tune of (what seems to me) a lot of money. My average is 65 cents per share. Valleywood said it well....I like the physics and the idea. And have lost too much to sell now, so I'm in for the duration. It will probably continue to be a bumpy ride before the hoped-for turnaround comes, but it's never been boring, due to all of you regular contributors. Thanks!
    29 Jun 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • >Iindelco — RE: “And then it needs to be shared at some level with all parties after which the massaging and the give and take commences. ......... Each party has to protect their own interests to minimize the losses and maximize the bounty.”
    .........................

     

    I just caught up on your posts this morning, and appreciate the amount of time you’ve taken to describe the complexities that are involved with working with an OEM. The question that comes up for me, and I assume for everybody on this board, is whether management has the necessary combination of skills to successfully navigate all these complexities, especially perhaps the interpersonal skills that are involved.

     

    Recent stock price action seems to indicate more and more shareholders don’t think they do. I’ve tended to think TG has managed the relationship with BMW well enough for the past 3-4 years to keep it going on a steady course, and has successfully brought us to the current promising juncture. But I wonder if he has the skills to keep things moving along? Not sure if this is a fair question to ask, but given the complexities of what Axion is facing, do you, (in your humble opinion of course) believe TG is up to the task? — Perhaps put another way, do you think Axion management has what it takes to successfully execute?
    29 Jun 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • I think management has the skills to negotiate the complexities, but nobody has the skills to negotiate the complexities in the kinds of unreasonable timeframes some investors like to impose. This is extremely complex stuff where the customer's biggest worry is making a mistake (a) on selecting a critical $400 component for a $40,000 system that carries their brand or (b) a component supplier that can cost it millions of dollars per day with less than perfect performance. The only complaint that stockholders have is that things aren't developing quickly enough to suit their tastes. From my perspective, the closest thing we've seen to a mis-step is the failure of a relationship with a couple super-salesmen who couldn't get orders at a price Axion could accept.
    29 Jun 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne, I'm certainly not knowledgeable enough concerning TG's strengths and weaknesses to answer the question concerning his ability to execute on his own at this phase of the game in automotive. I will however make this point as it's been my feeling regarding the hiring of Mr. Dantam. An expensive purchase for a company of Axion's size.

     

    Why Vani? Well, he knows automotive not only in contacts to make sales calls and negotiations but also their expectations of a supplier. In any program there are reams of expectations from various contact persons during the developmental/commerci... stages. For outsiders that have not grown up in this environment it can be overwhelming. In short you can't get through it efficiently unless you're familiar with all the tools. Vani knows how to migrate through this maze. It's not that he's going to do this personally but I think one of his roles is as a mentor in this area. What resources are required, the tools, contact persons to get help and so forth. Remember that shortly after Vani's hiring we saw the addition of a quality person to their staff. A good sign because at the phase of the program Axion is at directionally with the product and the process this area has a ton of activity.

     

    So what's the point? Well the point is, when one thinks about what the functions are of a good leader, a big one is to find areas where your team is weak and to fill the void with the right resource. Given TG's background, granted I don't know all of Axion's staff and their capabilities, he most probably recognized how inadequate he and his team was for navigating through this minefield. So he looked for a heavy hitter that not only knew automotive and it's deliverables for program launches but he also got someone on the industrial sales side in automotive that has been a key contributor in contract negotiations. The latter being one of Vani's primary roles. Small companies always look for people that can wear many hats for reasons you can well imagine.

     

    So getting back to TG and his capabilities. Is he superman? No, and if he was he'd be somewhere where they pay for supermen. But he did do one thing that is the role of a person in his position. Probably one of the most important. That's to look at your functional needs as they change and to constantly add/reduce staff functions as needs change. We also saw mention of these types of adjustments in the areas of industrial engineering post the successful leap seen in the sheeting process/electrode line rate improvements and the comments about the need to augment the sales staff with technical sales people. Good signs that TG is doing this function.

     

    So I guess I could guess and say no TG is not the right "individual" to lead Axion at this phase. BUT he recognized where there were holes and he found a high level resource to fill this void. And isn't that what leadership is primarily all about. Recognizing the path to success and getting the right resources as new needs arise to continue to move forward? Leaders get the recognition but strong teams achieve the goals.

     

    So I guess I'll leave it with the fact that I don't know but there are signs that are positive relative to automotive.

     

    PS: His communication with stockholders stinks! :))
    29 Jun 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco, thanks for your excellent (and well-written) in-depth reply. It reinforces my belief that some here have been too pessimistic regarding the BMW possibilities. It's nice to get some insightful reassurance!
    29 Jun 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne, The football is still between the goal lines so there are no assurances of a score. However, based on where Axion has expressed themselves to be in testing with BMW and TG's comments concerning BMW assistance, sure seems like we have a good game plan and superb field position. One announcement could well reposition our eyes from having to look at the dark exterior of the clouds to a shinny new perspective. It sure would be nice to have our heads up in the clouds for a change.

     

    And that darn NS999. Still hoping the batteries get to turn a motor before they wear out. Visited the Altoona Facebook page today and noticed a couple of our fellow Axionista's asking for clues about the NS999. Kudos to them!
    29 Jun 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    Do you think that East Penn could satisfy BMW for US production for your point b?
    29 Jun 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • I don't know that East Penn has any OEM contracts. They've done very well for a very long time serving markets that are highly profitable to them. East Penn is privately held, but it's one of the three biggest battery manufacturers in North America. They know to run a profitable business and have been doing so for a very long time.

     

    I think East Penn probably could satisfy an automaker's requirements, but if they don't have to why bother?

     

    The biggest reason I pay attention to the automotive OEM markets has nothing to do with the profitability of those markets. They're seen as the absolute gold standard in the battery business and if you're good enough for the automakers you're good enough for anybody. It's really nice learning that THE PbC WON THE GOLD and the only thing BMW is concerned with now is who will build the PbC for them.
    29 Jun 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • TG communication with stockholders stinks

     

    If TG is reading the concentrators, may be he should consider hiring a long time Axionista like Bang to do some pr. and Company website update.

     

    As a long time Axionista, Bang can communicate with TG and come up with Company communication that can calm the fear of the Axionista and not violate the NDA.
    29 Jun 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco. "His communication with stockholders stinks! "

     

    Yes, I agree it is not much we get. But he actually made the press release about ePower. So it seems that he does know it is necessary.
    30 Jun 2013, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • iind ... Appreciate your experience based insights into auto industry practices and manufacturing standards. You provide real food for thought even though I find some elements hard to digest.

     

    I truly hope a commercial relationship with BMW and/or BMW tier I partners favorable to AXPW materializes and does so sooner rather than later. If so, that development would support/reinforce the rationale you outlined for hiring Vani Dantam.

     

    OTOH, you earlier expressed belief that BMW never considered Axion a prospective supplier partner (rendering Axion's own manufacturing capabilities of no consequence to BMW) and resolution of reported BMW sole supplier concerns would mean successful conclusion by Axion of commercial agreements with more than one BMW supplier partner. Dantam's presumed familiarity with automotive manufacturing and operating standards would have little direct effect on Axion-BMW relationships.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv, You stated. " Dantam's presumed familiarity with automotive manufacturing and operating standards would have little direct effect on Axion-BMW relationships."

     

    This would be true as it relates to BMW buying batteries directly from Axion. I've always indicated I believe Axion's New Castle battery plant to be an outdated facility from a cost standpoint. It probably doesn't have all the latest quality control measures for AGM production either. That's one part of Axion's facilities.

     

    Next we have the negative electrode facility. Could Axion be considered a suppliers from this facility. My feelings? Perhaps. Here we have something that is more modern and was built in an era with current controls and instrumentation so if the supplier and Axion did their homework and BMW/Vani added their input this could well be on it's way to being validated for OEM supply. Would this happen? Well that depends on the cost numbers and what any potential partners have as far as expectations.

     

    BTW, Your point concerning Vani's contribution if Axion is not to be a production source is valid as it relates to my comments about Axion not being a direct supplier of PbC batteries or negative electrode assemblies for automotive. However, I'll caution, there is a big difference between walking into a room with a customer and trying to sell prototype batteries that work vs walking in and having these same batteries in a package with production intent facilities that are close to or meet the customers expectations for delivering CQD. Having the sheeting facility automated and "if" they have the data that shows process capability they have the whole package. Dat's worth a s*&t ton more than a great prototype if you're looking to have a bunch of product. The risk drops dramatically. But heck you'd never tell that from the companies market value! ;)
    1 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • 06/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hour).
    # Trds: 90, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 59000, Vol 512780, AvTrSz: 5698
    Min. Pr: 0.1421, Max Pr: 0.1550, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1474
    # Buys, Shares: 35 187728, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1483
    # Sells, Shares: 51 308352, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1469
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 16700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1473
    Buy:Sell 1:1.64 (36.6% “buys”), DlyShts 46477 (9.06%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.07%
    06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663

     

    Prior recent calculations of estimated next share issue price:
    06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968
    06/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2292, in 40 days: $0.1948
    06/18: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2266, in 40 days: $0.1926
    06/19: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2242, in 40 days: $0.1906
    06/20: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2214, in 40 days: $0.1882
    06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850
    06/24: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2147, in 40 days: $0.1825
    06/25: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2103, in 40 days: $0.1788
    06/26: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2053, in 40 days: $0.1745
    06/27: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2005, in 40 days: $0.1704

     

    WVAP's continue the trend: $0.2122, $0.1999, $0.1963, $0.1961, $0.1925, $0.1751, $0.1710, $0.1619, $0.1497, $0.1495 & today's $0.1474.

     

    Volumes, in thousands: 742.26, 436.05, 189.36, 295.91, 735.03, 808.78, 598.25, 913.97, 1,313.86 and 512.78.

     

    Well, back on trend today, except that the daily short sales were low. For the moment I'm thinking this aberration is a result of market-makers having taken advantage of a predictably declining price to do covering buys of their normal daily shorts and releasing the incoming shares backing prior sell orders into the market to make more money. Since I saw ATDF or NITE at the top of the ask heap eighteen times out of my twenty-five checks, and we know that when they dominated the selling we had very low daily short sales, this seems reasonable. Moreover, we can presume that some of their sales bypassed the other offers and just hit the bid. This may account for the very low “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” above too. Of the times I checked when ATDF or NITE weren't at the top they were very frequently co-located in second place, so I presume the urge to sell was strong in folks trading through those MMs.

     

    ARCA traders were a bit less aggressive today – only four times did I see them come in with a reduced offer. Most of the day the best ARCA offer sat at $0.15, and for a while at $0.159. I hope this is not just a “Friday Effect” with them returning to form next week.

     

    My original experimental inflection point calculations are still quite negative, although the one-day change for the five and fifty-day periods show some improvement. The five-day change has all six periods improving, along with the average rate of change over five days for all periods. This is still generally just a reduction in the rate of weakening.

     

    My never version continues the minor improvement for all six periods for the one-day change. The five-day change is similar but for the 10-day, which is showing marked improvement. The average rate of change over five days has a healthy improvement for all six periods. This is the second day of nice improvement, but still is characterized as reduction in weakness, rather than strengthening, in my judgment.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.
    29 Jun 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • after catching up on this thread, visions of Red Green are dancing in my head . . . .
    29 Jun 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Obieephyhm, The show?
    29 Jun 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • "we're all in this together..."

     

    and

     

    "keep your stick on the ice . . ."
    30 Jun 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • They start duct taping PbC to anything I am so out of here. :-)

     

    Although I have to admit the gull wing door; that opened with a garage door opener and a Duct tape hinge was cool. (As long as you didn't go past the cord length.)

     

    But the Duct tape surf board from a cut up kitchen table would have never worked.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Obieephyhm, Ahh yes, The Red Green show. I never watched much of it but I did catch the hockey stick piece. I think it was part of the closing routine? Canadians! :))
    1 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • >JP --- RE: "With $11 million of effective working capital and a burn rate of $2 million per quarter, Axion can operate at current levels for 18 months without breaking a sweat."

     

    For clarification, are you referring to 18 months from the the end of Q1, or 18 months from now [end of Q2]? -- Thanks.
    29 Jun 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • End of Q1, or fifteen months from today – a literal eternity in the life of a transition stage company.
    29 Jun 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • "a literal eternity in the life of a transition stage company"

     

    Unless you're dependent on (NSC) or BMW - then it's, unfortunately, a relative "blink of an eye"! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... With that I agree. I can imagine the BMW-OEM link-up could easily eat up that timeframe, but that task is up to BMW.
    29 Jun 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • If I have my way ePower will be a force to reckon with in 15 months. Their management is hungry to get a a dozen Gen3 prototypes on the road ASAP and Axion's introduction to Cummins is bearing fruit with surprising speed. Like I said, 15 months is an eternity in a transition stage company that's found a niche where everybody is looking for bragging rights instead of NDAs.
    29 Jun 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • John: I recall a recent comment that Cummins had been engaged two times, where originally I thought it was one.

     

    Can you divulge a little about how two meets came about and what purpose, results, ... you are free to discuss?

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • I hope you get your way JP.
    29 Jun 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • John, When might the design for the Cummins inclusion start to happen and wouldn't ePower then have to do an initial unit plus testing prior to a small fleet test? I would think you'd have to have at least 6 months of testing with some of it being hot/cold weather prior to a dozen unit fleet test. Seems aggressive given they don't have a contract with Cummins yet. Sure wish they started with them.
    29 Jun 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, I'm glad you asked that. I was chomping on the bit to do so but didn't. ;o))
    29 Jun 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • There have been a couple meetings at Cummins involving both Axion and ePower. While it's not the engine they want for the long term which includes an integrated rare earth permanent magnet generator, ePower will be taking delivery of a new Cummins diesel next week. As near as I can tell things are moving forward smoothly.
    29 Jun 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • John, Can you share any detail concerning the engine they are taking delivery on and how it differs from the engine (package) they really want? Is the engine (package) that they really want something that is off the shelf today? If not do you have a feel for when it will be?
    29 Jun 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • I really don't have enough detail of what they've ordered or why to comment further. I will, however, be spending a couple days with them after the 4th of July weekend.
    29 Jun 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. Share what you can.
    29 Jun 2013, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • So far ePower has given me pretty free reign to discuss what they're up to. That may change, but they want the exposure as much as Axion does because they want to sell a mess of retrofit kits.
    29 Jun 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • >John Petersen, I hope this doesn't happen and I suspect they also want AXION to get more exposure to help assure they (AXION) stays a viable entity. ePower is banking, much more than many Axionistas', and needs the PbC to succeed and be available. That is a symbiotic relationship of the first order! Hopefully AXION does not lower the 'cone of silence' (NDA) and will actually allow some reporting of specific data and specifications for this bio-carbon battery in the various iterations they are running now and in the future.

     

    On another subject, you mentioned in one of your posts that you believed that two tier 1 battery OEM's were needed to accommodate automotive's sole source concerns. I believe this is true, also, with my reasoning being that we need one on either side of the Atlantic. Further there will be a need for at least one of these 'partnerships' to not be exclusive to BMW. The SBIR or any other automotive OEM will have the same need for multi-source assurances before adoption of the PbC in their platforms. Am I off base or can you offer more of your thoughts about the need for two tier 1 battery partnership. Thanks
    30 Jun 2013, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • I see no signs that Axion has any particular interest in imposing a cone of silence on ePower or any other customer. They're cautious about releasing information to potential customers who might get a little data or perhaps a test battery and then begin talking trash about it's total unsuitability for use in a particular application. They'd also prefer to keep initial tests quiet until there's some indication that the PbC fills a need because it doesn't help the public image of a new product to have a long list of failures on somebody's website.

     

    In my experience, the biggest push for tight NDAs flows from major potential customers that are very concerned about their reputations and don't want a struggling nano-cap trading on their name.

     

    A perfect example is Active Power, which sells flywheel-based power reliability systems to some of the biggest data center operators on the planet. If you read their releases it's almost impossible to figure out who their customers are and its not because they wouldn't love to tell you. Another great example was Maxwell's dual device system for micro-hybrids. Maxwell's first tier partner was Continental and that was public knowledge for a couple years. There was no direct tie between Maxwell and Peugeot until Peugeot disclosed that it would start implementing the Continental-Maxwell system in late 2010.

     

    The extraordinary thing about Axion is that industry giants like BMW and NS publicly wrapped their arms around the PbC technology before there was an easily scalable PbC product. The Gen2 automated electrode line was complete before either company embraced the PbC, but the automated carbon sheeting process didn't exist until earlier this year.

     

    The sole source issue arises because automakers must have supply chain redundancy. If there's only one factory that makes a particular product then they're screwed if the factory gets put out of commission or if the factory owner gets horsey with pricing. The only way to mitigate the risk is to have two or more manufacturers who can deliver a comparable product in the same market.

     

    I've always assumed that Axion will need at least two manufacturing partners in each regional market – Europe, North America and Asia. We might well see a situation where a single partner like JCI counts as one partner in each region where it has a manufacturing footprint, but ultimately there need to be multiple entities selling comparable PbC products in each geographic market. While it is possible to ship batteries internationally, the risks to just in time inventory management are horrendous.
    30 Jun 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. Happen to know if the PM motor/generator is from (UQM)? :-)) They recently announced a new more powerful one, but I have no idea if it fits the application.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    "I see no signs that Axion has any particular interest in imposing a cone of silence on ePower or any other customer. "

     

    Do you have any thoughts on Rick's post on uber NDA disease from the previous concentrator? At the very least why not put the "innocuous" information on the web site?
    30 Jun 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Sometimes data and specifications that seem innocuous at first blush can be quite damaging, particularly in an industry like energy storage where there are a small number of accepted technology classes and your product doesn't fit into any of the existing cubby-holes.

     

    The PbC is a hybrid between a battery and a supercapacitor that offers a very unique set of performance attributes. It's the best solution in the world for some classes of users and absolutely worthless for others.

     

    Back in the early days the market was clearly favoring high-energy devices and we were worried that the PbC wouldn't be competitive in those markets without expensive ancillary hardware. While the PbC was in development, the market changed as new demands emerged for high-power devices that need more energy than a supercapacitor but don't need the energy storage capacity of a battery.

     

    The emerging applications we see today as sweet spots for the PbC didn't exist 10 years ago. The older market niches that need brute force energy storage haven't changed. What has changed is the emergence of new and entirely different class of applications that can't be effectively served by either batteries or supercapacitors.

     

    I frequently describe the energy storage industry as a large blank canvass with occasional blotches of color for traditional battery and supercapacitor applications. While everybody else in the industry is trying to stake a claim to a piece of an existing color blotch, the PbC holds the greatest promise for new applications in the white space, applications the others can't serve.

     

    The bottom line is that the PbC is not a viable contender if your goal is to push a legacy technology out of an established niche. The greatest opportunities are in the white space where innovators are developing new systems like micro-hybrids, electric locomotives, series electric truck drivetrains and other ideas that simply don't work if you try to use conventional technology to solve unconventional problems.

     

    Detailed specifications on websites are not particularly useful when your target market is users who need something completely different.
    30 Jun 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • >John Petersen,
    "I've always assumed that Axion will need at least two manufacturing partners in each regional market – Europe, North America and Asia. We might well see a situation where a single partner like JCI counts as one partner in each region where it has a manufacturing footprint, but ultimately there need to be multiple entities selling comparable PbC products in each geographic market. While it is possible to ship batteries internationally, the risks to just in time inventory management are horrendous."

     

    I'm sorry I wasn't more clear in my question, I meant that I believe there is not only a need for multiple partners, but there is an IMMEDIACY to at least gain one beyond that demanded by BMW. And that one of the needed partners be domestic and one needs to be not be exclusively tied to BMW. However the combinations might be arranged.
    I do agree that a multinational JCI or Exide partnership might equate to multi region coverage but corporate structures and automotive OEM requirements may not accept this premise.
    30 Jun 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • I think the odds are very high that management is negotiating with several potential partners and treating the lead negotiation as a prototype for deals with everybody else
    30 Jun 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • John
    You may not be able to answer but...
    ePower has ordered batteries but has Axion delivered them?

     

    When the get them will they start going on the truck or will it likely be a month or three of testing first? (They had a lot of experience with the John Deer before they put PbC in it.)

     

    The one they want has a PM generator
    Will they be matching a generator to it or does it come with a generator as well? Just not I assume a PM one.

     

    And lots of details :)

     

    Others with more educated guesses than my own are welcome to chime in as well.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • You win today's Stump The Band Award for the longest litany of questions with the same answer "I don't know, but I'll know a lot more after I visit ePower during the week of July 8th."
    30 Jun 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • @STEFAN

     

    Do you expect this stock to hit .10 cents this year? Some will call me a troll, and you can remove my post if you'd like.

     

    But I still don't see any relevant upside here, and I still do follow this stock closely anymore as the idea sounds great but what is really the problem with it. ?

     

    I stopped posting because most feel since I am questioning the company I am a troll. Why can't I question what is going on without all the negative troll talk ?

     

    It seems a few have bailed out who were supposedly big on this company. One can assume if you don't post after your boast your toast !

     

    But Stephan , you have a point if someone bailed out who started your blog to kinda explain why or their change of heart. I would like to know it. I also have always said I wish no one here loses a dime on any investment. But then I get attacked for my negative remarks. To me that is childish removing a negative post.

     

    Good luck to you all. You show a conviction and I hope it works out ! Nothing personal here so lets see if my posts stays up..
    30 Jun 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • "I see no signs that Axion has any particular interest in imposing a cone of silence on ePower or any other customer. They're cautious about releasing information to potential customers who might get a little data or perhaps a test battery and then begin talking trash about it's total unsuitability for use in a particular application."

     

    Excessively charitable, if not out right false, characterization of Axion disclosure policies regarding PbC batteries as far as I can see. It does not square with insistence on signing of non-disclosure agreements by those purchasing PbC batteries while declining to publish basic technical parameters of the batteries.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • The cone of silence...almost forgot about that one...http://bit.ly/16JEmlN....
    1 Jul 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • I.T.: I haven't posted in a long time and I have not "bailed". To your point, I'm sure many have (who are now silent), but I'm also pretty sure many are just waiting for to see what develops. I'm in the latter camp.
    1 Jul 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • I've been sulking in the penalty box. The hysterical knot seas got me down for a while. Still holding, but a confluence of certain grim self-induced exigencies *have* been prying my fingers off the rung slowly one by one--screaming as each whitened knuckle is relentlessly bent back. I'm now approaching the point of no return. Without some kind of turnaround in short order I'm afraid I'll be a fade-away goner. I've got a couple of more cards to play, but then that's it...and it seems I have a lifelong talent for zigging when I need to zag. Now it looks like nothing and nobody but lady luck can save me.

     

    "Life is hard. But it's harder if you're stupid."

     

    I've been stupid. And lazy too. Which by definition means things have been taken too easy. Marvelous plan if your bacon is always going to be saved from the fire in the end. Quite a bit less so if you suddenly find yourself cooked and on the carving board.
    1 Jul 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • 48: Being hopeful is not stupid. Making decisions with the best available information (much provided by management?) is not stupid.

     

    There's lots of things it could be, and likely are, but stupid likely doesn't qualify.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Jul 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • (much provided by management?) ... the question mark here is what has always concerned me. Would love to firmly move past this concern.
    1 Jul 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL. Your wisdom is often a steady guide. But I should clarify. I just mean that some of my own personal decisions and approaches have been stupid or foolish, and I blame no one. I believe I acted on good basis and on reasonable information, but nevertheless made some miscalculations. Mostly WRT timing. Things are just taking longer than ever I thought they would 18 months ago when I really came onboard for the win. But that is life in the big city. My sock drawer was something of a rented space. And then there turned out to be this ticking sound...

     

    I still very much look for good things to happen for Axion, indeed I think we have several sounder reasons than ever before to determine that-- I just hope the good things don't happen too late for me. For it seems this is really the crucible Summer.

     

    ps: I also hope that the powers that be will see fit to release me from the moderation penalty box soon. Time passes even *more* slowly in here... ;)
    2 Jul 2013, 02:05 AM Reply Like
  • been there, done that. not sure the ref's are particularly fair and reasonable but they rule the game.

     

    hang in there, 481086 -- i've enjoyed your comments.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Hear hear. I hope for the best for you 48.
    2 Jul 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe’s name was brought up recently, which reminded me of some of his great descriptions of his visits to Axion’s facilities in New Castle. One thing I’ve always remembered were his descriptions of the high degree of enthusiasm he noticed among all the employees at Axion. They all believe!
    29 Jun 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Now we have some more background now about auto supplier relationships. BMW would pick a far inferior battery from a higher tier company if they could. The fact that they are still working with Axion suggests that the merits of the battery outweigh the risk of the supplier. Risk mitigation takes time and effort.

     

    The next 15 months won't be devoid of events. There will be truck sales, and at least 1 train rolling on rails. Any incremental sales will push that date out even farther.

     

    I'd like to see one of those trucks hauling LAB batteries from New Castle.
    29 Jun 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121: I'd like to see 'em hauling PbCs out of Newcastle to ePower!

     

    Where's your 'magination son!?

     

    ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jun 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM, Your point is very valid. That BMW is coming to Newcastle to work with some little almost invisible entity says something. It says they have a hole in their component needs requiring a cost effective solution. They'd much rather have this in their portfolio of tier 1 provided solutions already but they don't. So since the current supply base can't or will not get the job done they will go out of their way to develop a solution. Seems they have found one and now perhaps they need to impress upon the industry that they want it and someone needs to scale it.

     

    Posted this already but it's a sign that the industry really doesn't have a solution yet for the level of SS Axion is targeting.

     

    Clearly the Japanese are not enamored with AGM.

     

    Japan's nonstop search for best stop-start system
    Capacitors, various types of batteries have pros and cons

     

    http://bit.ly/19KERxN
    29 Jun 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... I'd prefer seeing an ePower operator hauling PowerCubes somewhere like New York City or Marfa.
    29 Jun 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: Since the PCs are based on PbCs, no conflict there! I'm beginning to wonder if the success of the PC may be quite dependent on the growth of micro-grids. Technically, no required linkage exists, but I think a psychological one exists.

     

    The PC is not a revenue-generating machine, but a reliability and quality of power machine that can offset some of it's costs. This is the same with micro-grids, for the most part.

     

    I think as the acceptance and integration of that concept penetrates into both the user base and the utilities that serve them, something like a PC will be more readily accepted and integrated into the plans.

     

    I wish I believed otherwise, but that's my thinking ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2013, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • HTL
    It's been a while since this was mentioned but there are applications where additional instant power off grid is needed.
    Oil drilling both on and off shore for instance.
    If a drill starts to get stuck additional power is needed instantly. Normally they have an additional gen set(s) running 24-7 for just this purpose. Axion's PowerCube can recharge in a short time where as LA would be useless for hours.
    In case of failure of the presently operating gen set It also would be sized to do the job until a second gen set could be started and ready to take over. Off shore I understand diesel is more expensive than at the corner station. :)
    Onshore people are not happy with the extra traffic nor the emissions. Either place seems like fertile ground.
    30 Jun 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey: Good reminder. But we haven't heard much follow-up for a long time? I would've expected to have heard of at least some on-going something or another.

     

    Is there a competitor in the space? Maybe this is a case where, due to insensitivity to cost(?), that we're competing against Lithium-based solutions? Or even against Capstone micro-turbines? These latter are used on some remote platforms (and land locations as well) and can run on any gaseous fuel with (sometimes?) little or no treatment or any standard liquid fuel, including diesel. Very cost effective (change the filters yearly is the only scheduled maintenance, no oil changes, 40K-80K hours before majors).

     

    ISTR that another use on the rigs for the PC was energy recuperation as lengths were added/removed (long strings of pipe hoisted and lowered).

     

    In the long haul, I would expect the behind the meter applications to be larger volumes just because of the greater number of potential locations ... *if* it's successful in penetrating that market. Based on what's *not* happened so far since our progression with Viridity from initial connection to several days a week and the firming of the FERC rules and pricing, I'm wondering if it's just a timing issue or if that market is just not going to develop for AXion. The continuing bias toward Lithium everywhere by TPTB may just scuttle us in several places. The PR alone is a big wall to get over.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • HTL
    I have expected some news in this area as well.

     

    Competitor(s)
    I don't think LA would work. Its too slow to recharge in this particular case.

     

    Li Ion I expect so but heating cooling and potential for fire in an area with fumes would be a hard sell. IMO
    The same with A turbine I expect, also a turbine would need to be running and have fuel delivered. (After the site is producing Capstone might be good for additional drilling. and could replace diesel gen sets.)

     

    R. STAHL makes UPS for explosion prone areas.
    UPS System for Offshore Platform Requires More Safeguards

     

    For safety reasons, an Uninterruptible Power Supply is mandatory on oil rigs to ensure that signal lighting is operational at all times. And, the UPS must be able to operate properly in a difficult, hazardous environment.

     

    <UPS solutions component range includes battery chargers, various explosion-protected rechargeable batteries (lead gel, NiCd, NiMH), charge monitoring technology including alarm annunciators, DC power distributors and inverters for various performance classes up to 3,000 VA. Additionally, R. STAHL provides a wide range of explosion-protected enclosures, such as the GUBox series which features Ex e connection chambers. R STAHL also provides modules with user-specific explosion protection types as required.>

     

    Seems like people Axion might want to contact.

     

    A list of battery type suppliers active in the business.
    From RigZone
    O&G Directory: Batteries
    http://bit.ly/14Hfg5E
    30 Jun 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • HTL < Could easily be misreading the situation, but I rather doubt lithium based solutions have a better shot at drilling industry applications than the PbC. I just don't see addition of additional explosive potential to the drilling rig environment as having much prospect.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • Froggey and D-Inv: Correct me if I'm wrong, but there are several Lithium-based chemistries that don't post the same hazard as we heard so much about on the Boeing craft? IIUC, the electrolyte composition, as a supplier of oxygen, and the propensity of the particular lithium compounds to form internal shorts (via dendrite formation?) are not the same across the chemistries?

     

    I do realize that regardless of the above, anything that exposed the internal lithium of the battery to oxygen and a fire creates a very dangerous situation. I don't know enough to guess if that precludes all versions from consideration though.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jul 2013, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, a turbine, such as Capstone, would be completely inappropriate for the oil rig scenario. Micro-turbines are great for continuous steady power output, and don't ramp up quickly particularly well. (Much better than coal or nuclear, of course, but we are talking about small units, such as diesel.)

     

    I heard that somebody had a patent on the oil-rig idea, and therefore Rosewater dropped it. I do not remember the details. I don't see how putting batteries on an oil rig is a patentable idea, but I am no patent lawyer.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • >Rick Krementz ... If a peanut butter & jelly sandwich can be patented (Patent No. 6,004,596) then the possibilities seem endless for what can't be done.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Rick. What sparked the thought was that the platforms in very harsh climes have quite a few with Capstones on them. But I forgot that was for operations after all the drilling and such was done.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jul 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • wow...hard to follow all the deep dives into the nuances about how companies move new technology into production. But then, I know more about your guts than the guts of big business.
    All this talk about complexity empowers me to promote my thesis that the company ought to pump out some small production runs of it's batteries, put a limited warrenty on them and allow any number of companies, like ePower, use them in any number of diverse applications.
    Have any of you speculated why it is that ePower, a tiny little company, is allowed to talk openly about its activities and Axion can say nary a word about the big fish it supposedly has hooked and on the line?
    They obviously don't see that talking about ePower or allowing ePower to talk about them is a great risk to the reputation of their product or technology. Can you believe that there are only 3 applications and 3 potential partners in this big wide world who are likely to find a market for this company's product?
    So, I say again, let them toil along in secret with the auto and rail projects that may not see the light of day for another year or three.
    In the meantime, give all of us little people more grist for the gossip mill than a single little company with two trucks on the road.
    1000 batteries, in the hands of 50 university engineering departments...
    1000 batteries, offered to companies who install systems that need battery back-up out in the outback.
    1000 batteries, put into the hands of military contractors who develop whiz-bang systems to kill enemies by the thousands...
    Hell, why not give a few to Dr. Evil for his "laser"....
    at least there'd be more to talk about than a couple of grainy photographs from a rail yard...

     

    Tom, are you reading this? Manufacture some friggin batteries! I own 0.001% of your company, and I want some answers!
    29 Jun 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • The biggest problem with innovative small companies like ePower is that they require an immense amount of time from the engineering support staff as they work through issues like control systems, battery management, racking and ventilation and a huge variety of ancillary matters that must be resolved to get value from the battery.

     

    Judging by the number of times I've heard Jay talk about Axion's team coming for visits or working remotely on issues, my bet is the support costs at this point in time are a respectable multiple of the sales revenue.

     

    It takes a lot of hand holding to develop a new use for a new battery and if the battery manufacturer won't help the work may not get done, or at least not get done properly.
    29 Jun 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • "High touch = high cost." Axion tech support availability as bottleneck for dissemination/diffusio... problem.

     

    To try Nathan's strategy while minimizing requisite hand-holding, perhaps Axion could provide the first 20 batteries to engineering graduate students at Penn State, where they have been torturing the PbC under the sponsorship of NS? That school must surely be second only to Axion itself regarding insight into all the issues John notes.

     

    Anyway, getting the battery into the hands of people who must "publish or perish" would surely stoke the PR boiler. From peer-reviewed journals > popular science press > USA Today.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Oh bother--"morning fingers" and a lack of caffeine. Can't find the "Edit" button.

     

    "...bottleneck for dissemination/diffusion is an interesting problem."
    30 Jun 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • John: As BMW is to Axion, so is Axion to ePower re "hand holding" I think, sans the economic power disparity of course.

     

    That last item, I think, can make for a ... "better"(?) relationship. Both rowing the same boat with a small leak in the bottom and their interests, at this time, are exactly aligned.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2013, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • Valley..From my limited Tier 1 experience with auto - your thoughts on Hans and Franz joined by those of Mr Holty on patent in Feb. of the carbon sheeting process both ring "True".

     

    The process does follow the pattern suggested.

     

    Partners of substance are committing capital and human resources to PBc developments. Each dollar spent brings them closer to cash for all and a benefit for the marketplaces they serve

     

    My view, the remaining risk to long term AXPW success then is cash (or lack of same) and that the PBc tech will not perform

     

    I rate the chance of positive news following within 6 months at better than 7 out of 10

     

    Have decided to hold my position - keep my new cash dry - and wait for the "news" - or positive price action above $0.20 before buying another 100,000 shares

     

    Pleased to see the APC beginning to turn positive again

     

    30 Jun 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • JP

     

    From the last APC

     

    "That doesn't change the fact that the testing and validation programs have been successful. NS has bought its first set of batteries. BMW is leading Axion around to its suppliers to address critical supply chain issues. ePower will tell you flat out that their truck would not work without the PbC."

     

    Anyone who has spent time wooing Tier 1's to execution of an NDA and real money being invested together in developments will assure you that each of the foregoing relationships and where they stand are truly significant benchmarks

     

    Someday AXPW should be an "overnight success".

     

    Overnight success normally ignores the years of trial and error that went into an artists first "big hit".

     

    First you have the goods (AXPW does). Then you refine what you have (AXPW has been doing so). Then you need the people who know how to make money with what you have (we are not sure whether AXPW have those people yet but they have reached out to some who do). Relationships grow and support other possible developments. There must be a process that rolls out product to an expanding audience of buyers. (AXPW have a plan and a patented process)

     

    Patience and persistence almost always come before any riches flow. With each successful step in the art, music, invention, creativity is strengthened and reinforced by each success

     

    I think AXPW and the Axionistas are going to be fine
    30 Jun 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • I do too.

     

    My main focus is and has always been the PbC technology because stock markets are driven by emotion while performance and cost are the only things that matter to the customers who write the checks.

     

    After watching the PbC evolve over 10 years I'm flabbergasted that there has never been a major technological setback that involved a significant trade-off between performance and production costs.

     

    Axion has had the stock price chart from hell for three and a half years while the technology keeps racking up win after win after win. Dealing with the big boys is like having sex with a gorilla, you can't stop until she says your done, or kills you for not satisfying her needs.

     

    I know to a certainty that BMW and NS would not spend hundreds of thousands of dollars per year testing something that won't serve their needs. While we all look forward to the check that comes on graduation day, for now I have to be content with a lack of failure.
    30 Jun 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • +1.

     

    Honestly, Axion the company is fundamentally in better shape than before the financing. Yes, it may be dilutive to shareholders, and perhaps our collective fear is self-fulfilling in this (e.g. lower prices from fearful selling drive further dilution via convertible downward spiral) -- but the company has the money to execute for the next year to see this through one way or the other.

     

    When I re-evaluate my investment thesis with investments made at $0.60 or $0.40 or $0.23, I have no regrets. They were predicated on the likelihood of a $3+ back-of-the-knapkin valuation with the fulfillment of a major OEM contract. If anything, we are closer than we have ever been to realizing as much.

     

    I don't look at the share price day-to-day; I place my buys when I see a reward-to-risk ratio that I like (and when I have the powder), for a position size/risk exposure that I can stomach.

     

    Nothing has happened to defy my original investment thesis, so there is no reason for me to think about selling. I (try to) buy or sell on fundamental changes in the company; management can't control the stock price.

     

    If you were a buyer at $0.25, what has changed between then and $0.16 today to drive you to sell? The market -- a bunch of people with no more information than yourself -- may be bearish, but what else?

     

    So yeah, +1 for patience and persistence.
    1 Jul 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Dlmca: did you get my PM on SA about making an instablog?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jul 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Pz44, the improvement in some of the company fundamentals is wonderful, but you left out a giant new negative that can't be ignored in any reasonable investment analysis---the recent cap raise threatens to result in a giant increase in the # of shares o/s.

     

    An easy way to think about it is that now, more than ever, time = shares.
    2 Jul 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • It's a funny thing, but Axion's aggregate enterprise value fell after the 2012 offering because people over-estimated the impact of the new shares and it fell once again after the most recent offering because people once again over-estimated the impact of the new shares.

     

    In both cases, the market effectively concluded that the entire business was worth less with another $10 million than it was without the money.

     

    It's very important for investors to watch share growth and valuation, but fear of dilution is so incredibly overblown in this case that I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
    2 Jul 2013, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • John: I suspect that the reason for the negative sentiment is more complex than what you suggest.

     

    If we are forward-looking, we see the possibility of increased difficulty achieving substantial gains in share price because these financiers will have a ton of shares that they will dump into the market, just like we suspect the last round did.

     

    This means a longer, at least, wait-time until targets for share price are met. It also means an extended and higher opportunity cost. Where we have been constantly under assault by ever-increasing floods of new shares, with this being likely the most egregious IMO, it's natural for those with finite lifespan expectations to try to make protective moves.

     

    On an individual level, it really has nothing to do with the present value of the company. It has to do with the present and future value of our holdings and how long to get "get there".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Jul 2013, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • When you start with an enterprise value of $52.7 million in January 2012, add $9 million in cash, and see the enterprise value in the $40 million range by mid-May, something is wrong with expectations.

     

    When you start with an enterprise value of $30 million in May 2013, add $9 million in cash, and see the enterprise value in the $28 million range by the end of June, something is wrong with expectations.

     

    The negative sentiment all boils down to impatience. "We want numbers on the income statement and we want them right now dammit."

     

    Axion's enterprise value was $100 million at the end of Q1-10. Since then it has plummeted to $28 million (assuming that 67 million shares will be required to clear the debt instead of the 37 million shares that would be issued at the stated conversion price).

     

    Whatever the causes are, the results are grossly over-blown.
    2 Jul 2013, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • JP,

     

    I am afraid that as long as Axion stays in the shadows of the battery business with no real roadmap for explosive growth in sales, then the market will keep valuing it at a little over net book value. I know we talked about this subject in the past, but could it be that the 100 M market capitalization that we had in 2009 was at the peak of inflated expectations for AXPW, and that the market had corrected since? If it were the case, then I clearly got in late :((
    2 Jul 2013, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    We have to make sure someone asks TG at the next CC what was the rationale behind his latest debt offering, and how does he see these financiers as having interests that are aligned with those of Axion. Clearly if these are the same people dumping the shares, then TG's judgement is questionable in this case!
    2 Jul 2013, 06:03 AM Reply Like
  • The hype cycle doesn't begin until a company completes its R&D phase and begins selling products. A copy of the Gartner graph is near the end of this article.

     

    http://bit.ly/We3VtG

     

    The market machinations we've seen so far are all creatures of an R&D stage company in transition. Axion's been doing a lot of testing and validation with potential customers for its first generation products, but there haven't been any significant sales yet.

     

    We haven't yet seen the barest beginnings of the hype cycle itself.
    2 Jul 2013, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • John-

     

    How are you so sure of the hype cycle for AXPW? While it happens to some companies it doesn't happen to all. Its something I am not expecting.

     

    APMarshall had a post showing concern about what the deal with BMW's battery partners may be. The idea of something like a royalty vs a traditional sales less gross margin. APMarshall also astutely shared his thoughts/expectations of a lower margin with this than what AXPW could get from others. Assuming that the margin is the same, say 10%:

     

    Option A: Revenue of $200, COGS $180 Gross Margin $20
    Option B: Royalty payment of $20

     

    I would prefer Option A as more revenue would show ramping revenues which would show up on peoples screens. It would also help if the company gets valued like other battery companies at X (.6-1.4x) of revenues. Although if its a royalty maybe it would be treated like a tech stock.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • The Hype Cycle happens with all technological advances and companies. The orders of magnitude vary widely, but the cycle is always there.

     

    Axion is aggressively developing several markets for the PbC and automotive is only one of them. I've frequently said that it's my least favorite market because the costs of expanding to automotive scale are enormous beyond reckoning and the margins are tightly constrained.

     

    Frankly I'd be delighted to see Axion enter into a series of agreements that were limited to automotive and gave it a $10 per battery royalty. At that rate, each 1% market penetration would represent $3.5 million a year in cost free contribution to overhead. Remember, you don't have selling and administrative costs when checks just show up in the mailbox.

     

    Building manufacturing capacity to make electrodes for a million batteries a year would cost ~$40 million that Axion doesn't have. While making and selling completed batteries might generate $20 million in gross margin, the incremental SG&A associated with generating the revenue would be very high. A license that generates $10 million in SG&A free gross margin with no need for additional capital looks like a pretty good deal to me.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • John, as a personal aside, I think the problem here is as much the broader stream of investor ignorance and media hype than anything else.

     

    My personal experience is that I've met a lot of people with a lot of money to invest and they often expressed themselves in ways indicative that they, themselves, have no idea how real business development goes but they think they do.

     

    I came in with a speculative position late in the game. I like the science and I like the opportunities here. But it is and will remain a small part of my portfolio and I'm in in it till it grows or dies.

     

    Either way, I enjoy your comments and those others who have significant and useful information to convey. Nonetheless, I ride this train to the end and I can afford the patience . . . especially when coupled to the knowledge that they (Axiom) know their business and prospects far better than I do. So let 'em run 'til they prove otherwise, say I.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • I think the hype cycle has much more "substance" than simply investor ignorance. It's preceded by accumulation by institutions, who want to hold the price high as possible for them to sell. It's not going to be a 1 day or even 1 month cycle, but over a year's time. Prices are made at the margin, so it doesn't take many shares to drive prices up once you've accumulated large blocks. We'll get our accumulation as soon as Axion is a viable company... That is, safe enough for institutions to hold over periods of years. I believe auto will minimally get us there.
    2 Jul 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma,

     

    While I still think that Axion can get into a billion dollar company at some point in the next 10 years, I have one major worry and it has to do with the average age of the guard. I am still relatively inexperienced and a young investor, but I have yet to see a company transition from R&D to billion dollar market cap when its managers are close to retirement, that is unless there is a change in the executive team somewhere on the way...
    2 Jul 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • >Amouna ... I don't know how you feel but my idea of retirement will mean dropping to the floor dead. Yeah, I'll take longer & more vacation trips as I age ... but stop working to watch the world pass by ... not likely. Although I have a couple of years left before the "official" retirement age to change my mind.

     

    I don't think the guys at Axion feel much different. In fact, I get the feeling that most of the time doing what they're doing doesn't seem like work. I think the guys at ePower are of like mind.

     

    It would be nice, even comforting, to see some younger faces around but they'd have to wait their turn. Think Prince Charles. A person in waiting that may never get a chance at the front office.
    2 Jul 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    As I have understood it: TG tried to make a deal with "someone aligned with Axions interest", but they wanted 60% of the company, and a very large discount. So he had to use plan B, the current arrangement.

     

    From the 1Q 2013 transcript:
    "Yeah, we’ve been looking to different options in different opportunities for strategic investors, but price hasn’t been what we’re willing to pay if you will. So the investments that we’ve had in the past have been investments in terms of financing, certainly the investors that we had last year were good investors. They have stuck with the company. We see them appear in the various lists of shareholders. They’re still there. They’re still with us. We have a different type of investment this time around that we be engaged in. It's a tough market out there without question. Would we prefer to have a strategic investor standing along side of us that is going to take a percentage of the company and work with us and work to get us into various opportunities, we certainly would. But we’re not prepared to give up 60% of the company in order to do that or to take an investment at a much lower discount to market. What we were able to take is I’m sure you all know on the call we were able to obtain investments at a plus rate, and in this market with the opportunities that are out there and with the folks that have gone out of business in the battery industry we’re certainly thankful that we were able to hold out and get the kind of deal that we got."
    2 Jul 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • One small quibble: the way I read that is that 60% implied no discount, and other smaller deals wanted a discount. TG thought the current deal would be at market, but obviously didn't realize shorts would attack. We need to make him aware and make efforts to support share price.
    2 Jul 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • DR - we think alike here. If you're riding a winner, you just don't stop playing the game. Moreover, the is a lot to be said for experience that comes with six decades of survival . . .
    2 Jul 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • I have a real problem with TG raising the 60% issue and making that statement. Have not done the math yet but if you look at the last 2 capital raises and what the likely outcome has been as far as shares issued. And no strategic partner.
    2 Jul 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • I am wondering if TG is still thinking that he got a good deal??

     

    I am a definite skeptic!
    2 Jul 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • "certainly the investors that we had last year were good investors. They have stuck with the company. We see them appear in the various lists of shareholders. They’re still there."

     

    That certainly would surprise a lot of us (just me?).

     

    The Q then: was the heavy selling spooked Axionistas, other short-term traders or should we question the veracity of that statement?

     

    Data doesn't lie, but data is not knowledge, just information. We see the effects of decisions made, but don't know who, why, where, ...

     

    My first thought is that statement is there to soothe our frazzled nerves. That doesn't mean it's false, just I think that was the intent.

     

    Then, as others mention here, why the sudden spike in shorts? One I feel is totally explainable, another, maybe and another I'm positive was "real shorters".

     

    I may have data, but not yet knowledge.

     

    Color me cautious about statements because so many have proven to be "failed".

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Jul 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • HTL

     

    Since I am still sitting here with my "seat belt fastened" I have definitely come to the conclusion that TG has lost all credibility with me! I really would love for him to regain my trust but he has soooo many failures to deliver that the data in the "plus" column does not balance out the data in the "negative" column. Of course this could change immediately if he would actually deliver but at the moment I am not feeling real optimistic for that to happen near term! I am certainly hoping that I am 100% incorrect though!
    2 Jul 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • "Color me cautious about statements because so many have proven to be "failed".

     

    and that is why we're where we are today.
    2 Jul 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Another consideration is whether the 60% deal would have potentially wrestled control of the company from him?
    2 Jul 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • >Stefan Moroney ... I would figure giving 60% of shares would be giving up control of the company ... at a minimum. I'd think doing something like that would be a virtual sale.
    2 Jul 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • My confusion lies in the fact that if the battery is as good as we are being told and as good as we are believing it is along with the potential uses and rollout to potential customers in the near future then why is it that we ended up with this financing? It appears to me that maybe we are missing out on some info that could explain the real "why" instead of the excuse that venture money is not readily available! If the story we are believing to be true is actually true then I am having a hard time believing that Axion could not hook a better deal.

     

    Just saying!
    2 Jul 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Venture investors bandwagon like any other investors...
    2 Jul 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun> Private companies get to negotiate with venture money based on an analysis of the business, its potential markets and its state of development. Publicly held companies don't have that luxury and they live or die by their stock price.

     

    The terms of the 2009 financing were negotiated as a venture capital investment in a public company and the stockholders were angry that the deal went off at $0.57, a substantial discount to market.

     

    The terms in 2012 and 2013 were straight stock sales by a company with the price chart from hell. You can explain the hows and whys of a chart like that till hell freezes over and the buyer still isn't going to pay more than a reasonable discount from market.

     

    Not ever.

     

    The price chart from 2010 through 2013 may not have been Axion's fault, but it is most certainly Axion's problem. That and a large crew of retail investors who made a blood sport out of bottom fishing over the last three years.
    2 Jul 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • and that, JP, right there is why I keep coming back. A sound question and an answer I can comprehend that (in this case) educates one on just what 'venture' capital is about and to whom/what the term applies.

     

    thank you.
    2 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • JP,

     

    Thanks for your input, I appreciate it.

     

    Got my fingers crossed for some good news to come our way soon.
    2 Jul 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • "That and a large crew of retail investors who made a blood sport out of bottom fishing over the last three years."

     

    JP, I don't understand this statement at all. you make it sound like it's axionista's fault that we are where we are.

     

    Axionista's bought almost all the big uglies stock and propped it for the past 2 years ... when the NS announcement was made the last capital raise investors literally sold the news hard. Far overwhelming what few "retail investors" could invest.

     

    IMO, we would have .10 long ago without the support of the axionistas here on this APC and their friends who came on board with them. In fact, who never heard of AXPW and never would have without influence of axionistas.
    So I do not believe "retail investors" have anything to do with it. Bottom fishing or not. Until Wall St. & the funds come to buy, we make no difference in the big picture.
    2 Jul 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not JP but I find something slightly askew in what you're saying here: "Axionista's bought almost all the big uglies stock and propped it for the past 2 years"

     

    compared with this: " Until Wall St. & the funds come to buy, we make no difference in the big picture"

     

    I can't wrap my head around how these two sentences can co-exist. How is 'propping up' and 'making no difference' reconcilable?

     

    On a strictly personal note, I wonder at the idea of 'propping-up' a stock price. I, for one, don't buy anything to prop up a price. I buy it because I'm willing to risk the investment capital to see it grow eventually. Intermediate, sporadic and transient market movements don't generally concern me unless there are material financial developments which fundamentally change my investment thesis. If, upon periodic re-evaluation of all available and pertinent data, I still believe in the investment thesis, I'll use negative market moves to increase my holdings and average-down my basis.

     

    I suppose John's reference is toward short-term market-makers looking for quick in-and-out profits on their 'investment'. I know they exist. I know I can't control them and I know that I really don't care about them when what I bought into was part ownership of a company whose long-term prospects I happen to believe in.

     

    for whatever that perspective may or may not be worth . . .
    2 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun ... IMO the answer to the "if the battery is as good" question lies in AXPWs basic strategy of pursuing sales to the likes of BMW and NSC as opposed to marketing the PbC to smaller markets/firms (learning to crawl and then walk before trying to run) and making information on PbC performance parameters more readily available. Granville was likely less able (if not unable) to document imminent "rollout to potential customers" than was possible in the lead up to the 2012 financing. Venture money WAS AVAILABLE as evidenced by the financing that eventually occurred in which the amount of discount to market was not defined/limited at time of financing agreement.

     

    I read the PIPE financing as a calculated risk by Granville and the board in which they assessed final discount from prevailing market at time of financing would be less under the PIPE than what was being offered on an upfront discount deal. If BMW, NSC, or prospective buyer of a large PowerCube installation had been willing to extend preliminary commitments for near term PbC purchases, I expect offered discounts to a fixed market price would have been more attractive.
    2 Jul 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Every large block investor will pay a price at which they estimated they could safely exit at. That will be a discount to market usually.

     

    Private companies are different because they have no established price trends, thus can have an investment bank sell it to the public at inflated prices.

     

    Of course, you wouldn't invest venture capital in a private company unless it had connections to such an exit. Or, also at a substantial discount.
    2 Jul 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • LT> It's not a question of fault, but the fact is the Axionistas were savage buyers who kept moving their offers down when they knew the big uglies were going to sell regardless of the market price.

     

    In the early days nobody believed they were paying fair value for their shares. They believed they were taking advantage of large holders who either had to or were willing to sell at distressed prices.

     

    After a while, however, a rich supply of available shares convinced many that sub-$0.50 prices represented fair value instead of a screaming bargain. When the 2012 investors seemed to be willing to sell at a loss, the same blood sport mentality set in again and pulled the price even lower.

     

    Buying behavior ultimately determines the shape of a stock price chart. A few weeks ago the Axionistas were angry about the debt offering and stopped buying. Some even started selling. In response the sellers reduced their offer price to a level where demand rebounded.

     

    It would have been nice if some news earlier in the year fired the market's imagination and brought in a raft of new buying power from outside – perhaps a news item about stripping 80% of the labor cost out of the battery for instance. Unfortunately that didn't happen and the only buyers we see today are in it for the blood.

     

    It's neither good nor bad. But it is a dynamic that the new money used to beat management about the head and shoulders during the price negotiations.
    2 Jul 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma> In three decades of representing companies in connection with stock offerings I've only met one new investor who gave a tinker's dam about the legacy investors. That investor was David Gelbaum who paid $2.10 per share in 2008. He came in at a terribly rich valuation for Axion and wrote three checks that would choke a horse. He ultimately got painted as the devil incarnate for forced sales at losses in the 75% to 90% range, but he was one in a million when he made the investment.

     

    Every other investor I've ever met has been concerned with two critical issues – return of capital and return on capital. Whenever they see a risk to either, the price they're willing to pay falls.

     

    Selling the stock chart from hell is one of the toughest jobs I can imagine. But when you're in management you do what you can with the cards you've been dealt.
    2 Jul 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • For folks tracking my intra-day stuff, I've got a stub for 7/1 onward up with new header discussing some if the financing and short sales things we've been watching.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jun 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • So once you start harvesting energy while coasting to a stop or during highway driving a larger charge/discharge window becomes a requirement and better round trip efficiency delivers an improved reward. Also we can see in the article running vehicle accessory loads already require a DC/DC converter so (OHMY) it's not a show stopper.

     

    The 10,000,000th Bosch Start-stop Starter Motor Rolls off the Line

     

    "Zero consumption, even while driving

     

    In order to further reduce consumption, and thus CO2 emissions, Bosch engineers are continually working to extend engine shutdown times. This will apply initially to the time when the vehicle is coasting to a stop; by 2016 it will also apply to periods while driving, when the driver is not accelerating. The effectiveness of all safety and comfort functions is still guaranteed, even during these longer periods with the engine switched off. "Depending on the type of driving, the enhanced start-stop systems will save up to an additional 10 percent of fuel," says Kirschner."

     

    http://bit.ly/1b0ig1G
    30 Jun 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone suppose Bosch is the (or one of the) suppliers BMW have told to work with AXPW

     

    That would be quite a win
    30 Jun 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Dimca
    It would make a lot of sense to introduce Axion early to their SS maker as well.

     

    It would give them more time to start working specifically with PbC batteries for other and future projects.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • I'd be happy to be a 4th line center on that team

     

    1st line- BMW
    2nd line- Bosch
    3rd line- N/A
    4th line- Axion

     

    It's NHL draft day so I'm thinking in terms of a solid line up after trading for bolland today, who could the 3rd liner be.
    30 Jun 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • While Bosch does sell some batteries, it doesn't sell batteries to automakers because it's far too busy selling starters, alternators and other electrical and mechanical parts.

     

    I won't be the least bit surprised if the Phase II Grant application identifies Bosch or Valeo as Axion's mechanical system development partner. While Bosch is the better known of the two brands, Valeo is right up there with them when it comes to automotive systems.
    30 Jun 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • "I won't be the least bit surprised if the Phase II Grant application identifies Bosch or Valeo as Axion's mechanical system development partner. While Bosch is the better known of the two brands, Valeo is right up there with them when it comes to automotive systems"

     

    IIRC, both Bosch and Valeo were identified in the Phase I Grant application.
    1 Jul 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • I don't recall seeing the Phase I application and would love a copy if you have it. Unless I'm reading the 10-Q wrong, one of the first tier parts suppliers has stepped up and joined Axion as a co-applicant for the Phase II grant.

     

    That would put us in a position where an award would result in a DOE press release about a Phase II grant to "Axion with Bosch" or "Axion with Valeo."

     

    It's exactly the same press dynamic I was hoping for a couple years ago when an award would have read "Axion with GM."

     

    Last time the odds of an award were probably 1 in 10. This time they're 50/50.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • I went back and looked at my notes from that Phase I application, which was submitted in January of 2012. Here is what I had:

     

    - proposed test cycle will likely utilize 200A - 500A test channels -
    testing ability
    - current temporary production capacity of 60,000 PbC batteries
    - Relationship with BMW, GM and other OEMS since 2007
    - Identified Valeo and Bosch as potential partners
    - It is expected that one of their "partner" OEMs or third party
    supplier will be interested in Phase II participation
    - Internal 2012 presentation at INL - "Axion Test Results:Gen3 PbC Modules"
    - all advanced AGM and carbon additive batteries including
    UltraBattery suffer from sulfation which limits charge acceptance
    - Introduction of a new DMHT protocol to measure battery performance in a dual battery architecture

     

    "Last time the odds of an award were probably 1 in 10. This time they're 50/50" This is my understanding as well.
    1 Jul 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Since it appears that one of the two candidates has stepped up to the plate and joined in the Phase II application, a win would put us in a position where an award will result in a DOE press release about a Phase II grant to "Axion with Bosch" or "Axion with Valeo."

     

    I can't remember Bosch or Valeo EVER accepting second place on the marquee for ANYONE.

     

    I'll take a 50/50 shot at "Wow, I've never seen that before!" any day of the week.
    1 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Lest anyone ever insinuate that I am a troll -- rather than only disappointed in Axion's ability to communicate and indifference to its stockholders -- here is a link to the Phase I application. A document that I very much enjoyed reading.

     

    http://bit.ly/1b2oRbU
    1 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM