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  • Axion Power Concentrator 248: July 2: Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For EPower 328 comments
    Jul 2, 2013 10:05 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    FocalPoint Analytics' important comment on Axion Power's recent Financing Transaction -- On reading the Axion power concentrator, I get the impression that some people do not understand many of the ramifications of Non-Conventional convertible security financing (PIPEs). So I thought it would be helpful to provide some information on the subject.

    HTL's latest insta provides the perfect forum for this information with its close proximity to his data. Thank you very much HTL for letting me post this here.
    ===

    A Note on Convertible Securities, Specifically Non-Conventional PIPE Financing. I have added some additional materials in brackets [ ].

    The following is from the SEC website http://tinyurl.com/3bnmd9

    A "convertible security" is a security, usually a bond or a preferred stock that can be converted into a different security, typically shares of the company's common stock.

    Companies generally issue convertible securities to raise money. Companies that have access to conventional means of raising capital (such as public offerings and bank financings) might offer convertible securities for particular business reasons. Companies that may be unable to tap conventional sources of funding sometimes offer convertible securities as a way to raise money more quickly.

    Conventional convertible security financing
    In a conventional convertible security financing, the conversion formula is generally fixed. This means that the convertible security converts into common stock based on a fixed price. The convertible security financing arrangements might also include caps or other provisions to limit dilution.

    Non-Conventional convertible security financing
    By contrast, in less conventional convertible security financings, the conversion ratio may be based on fluctuating market prices to determine the number of shares of common stock to be issued on conversion.

    A market price based conversion formula protects the holders of the convertibles against price declines, while subjecting both the company and the holders of its common stock to certain risks. Because a market price based conversion formula can lead to dramatic stock price reductions and corresponding negative effects on both the company and its shareholders, convertible security financings with market price based conversion ratios have colloquially been called "floorless", "toxic," "death spiral," and "ratchet" convertibles.

    [ It's important to understand the meaning of Ratchet, so here is its definition: Ratchet - The option for existing shareholders in some publicly-traded companies to exchange their shares for more shares in a new issue of stock where the newly issued stock is made at a lower price.

    For example, if a shareholder purchases shares for .30 per share and the company later makes a new issue at .15 per share, the shareholder may exchange the shares purchased at .30 for an equivalent dollar amount in .15 shares. This doubles the number of shares obtained in this example. http://tinyurl.com/yke.... The Axion notes have a full ratchet adjustment - page 45 of the S1. ]

    Both investors and companies should understand that market price based convertible security deals can affect the company and possibly lower the value of its securities. Here's how these deals tend to work and the risks they pose:

    * The company issues convertible securities that allow the holders to convert their securities to common stock at a discount to the market price at the time of conversion. That means that the lower the stock price, the more shares the company must issue on conversion.

    * The more shares the company issues on conversion, the greater the dilution to the company's shareholders will be. The company will have more shares outstanding after the conversion, revenues per share will be lower, and individual investors will own proportionally less of the company. While dilution can occur with either fixed or market price based conversion formulas, the risk of potential adverse effects increases with a market price based conversion formula.

    * The greater the dilution, the greater the potential that the stock price per share will fall. The more the stock price falls, the greater the number of shares the company may have to issue in future conversions and the harder it might be for the company to obtain other financing.

    [At this point I think it's important to get a feel for the amount of dilution that could be encountered. I refer the reader to the table on page 42 of the S1 entitled: "Number of Shares Issuable in Satisfaction of the Senior Convertible Notes Based on Various Assumed Conversion Prices". That table shows the number of shares that will be issued based on different conversion prices. The current share price is already less than the lowest share price in that table.

    If we rough fit a linear function and put in Friday's closing price (.153) we get 56,054,886 shares which is about 59% more shares than the number of issued shares at .264.

    If you look again at the S1 on page 44 you will see that the Shares Registered for Resale on behalf of the Selling Stockholders or Affiliates Thereof in Connection with the Senior Private Placement is 61,327,781. Axion has extra shares, but if the stock price drops down to around .125, all of the additional placement shares could be absorbed. If the price drops to book (.07 - .08) we are talking around 71M shares. Can that happen, I don't know, but I think its something that should be discussed.

    Finally, I have looked and looked in the S1. I don't see any floor on the conversion price. If that is true, there is no lower limit on the conversion price. Now back to the SEC's note.]

    Before you decide to invest in a company, you should find out what types of financings the company has engaged in - including convertible security deals - and make sure that you understand the effects those financings might have on the company and the value of its securities.

    If the company has engaged in convertible security financings, be sure to ascertain the nature of the convertible financing arrangement - fixed versus market price based conversion ratios.

    Be sure you fully understand the terms of the convertible security financing arrangement, including the circumstances of its issuance and how the conversion formula works. You should also understand the risks and the possible effects on the company and its outstanding securities arising from the below market price conversions and potentially significant additional share issuances and sales, including dilution to shareholders.

    Short Selling
    You should be aware of the risks arising from the effects of the purchasers and other parties trading strategies, such as short selling activities, on the market price for the company's securities, which may affect the amount of shares issued on future conversions. [Note HTL's comments on shorting]

    ===========
    Senior Warrants:
    In addition to the shares offered from the convertible notes, the S1 also entitle Senior Warrants consisting of 17,281,107 million shares of common
    Stock. The Senior Warrants will not be exercisable until the six month anniversary of the Closing and will expire 5 years from the date of first exercise. The Senior Warrants are initially exercisable at an exercise price equal to $0.302, subject to certain adjustments. One of those adjustments is a "full ratchet" anti-dilution adjustment.

    What's happened to the share price?
    If you are thinking of buying shares in a company that is currently under the terms of Non-Conventional convertible security financing, I suggest looking at the share price history since the PIPE arrangement began. If the stock exhibits a sharp downward trend in temporal proximity to the start of the PIPE, that very likely means the share price is in a dilutive spiral.
    Even if the company receives good news that increases share price, the dilutive pressure of the Non-Conventional convertible security financing will continue until the terms of the PIPE are completed.

    So what do you do - Buy, hold, sell, trade? It depends on a lot of things... I just wanted to make sure that people understood the kinds of risks that can exist under this type of financing.

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    Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For ePower

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

    Excerpts from the First Quarter 10-Q --

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

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    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

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    Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NS), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    Axion Power Residential Energy Storage HUB Certified to UL, CSA Standards -- Axion receives UL certification and CSA Standards for their Residential Energy Storage HUB.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (updated through 07/01/2013)

    Since everybody is familiar with the three graphs I send the Axion Power Host every week and anything repetitious will get boring after a while, I thought I'd mix things up a bit and offer a completely different presentation.

    The following graph shows how Axion's share count has grown over time, how its 200-day average trading volume has grown over time, and how its aggregate enterprise value has fallen by almost 75%. For purposes of the enterprise value calculation (which is theoretically equity plus long-term debt), I've treated the recent PIPE as a stock issuance and arbitrarily assumed that 66.7 million shares will be issued to retire the debt. I hope the number of new shares will be closer to the 37.8 million shares that management intended, but a little pessimism doesn't hurt when engaging in this kind of exercise.

    (click to enlarge)

    The events that increased Axion's market capitalization during 2009 were:

    · The April 2009 announcement of a strategic alliance with Exide;

    · The August 2009 announcement of a DOE grant award to Exide with Axion Power; and

    · The December 2009 completion of a $26 million private placement.

    Since April 2010, the selling pressure has been heavy enough to completely eclipse all of these events:

    · The June 2010 disclosure of a development relationship with Norfolk Southern;

    · The September 2010 disclosure of a development relationship with BMW;

    · The March 2011 disclosure that a major US automaker had joined Axion as a subcontractor in a major DOE grant application;

    · The November 2011 commissioning of the PowerCube as the first behind the meter frequency regulation resource in the country;

    · The December 2011 discovery that the unnamed US automaker was General Motors;

    · The February 2012 completion of a $9 million offering of common stock;

    · The April 2012 announcement that Norfolk Southern had completed its laboratory testing and ordered batteries for its NS 999;

    · The August 2012 disclosure that BMW had completed its laboratory testing and commissioned an independent peer review;

    · The August 2012 disclosure that a Top-5 Asian automaker had decided to go directly to advanced testing on the strength of the BMW test results;

    · The November 2012 disclosure that a testing program for the use of the PbC in auxiliary power units for Class 8 trucks was expected by year-end;

    · The November 2012 disclosure that the PbC had been selected for use in a new series hybrid electric retrofit for Class 8 tractors;

    · The tacit admission by Exide that its best enhanced and AGM batteries won't stand up to the demand of micro-hybrids in November 2012;

    · The frank admission by JCI that its best enhanced and AGM batteries won't stand up to the demand of micro-hybrids in December 2012;

    · The December 2012 shipment of the NS 999 batteries to Norfolk Southern;

    · The signing of an exclusive supply arrangement with ePower following successful testing of the PbC in their tractor;

    · The March 2013 commissioning of an automated carbon sheeting line that strips 80% of the labor out of the PbC battery while improving performance;

    · The April 2013 disclosure that Axion, with support from BMW, was pursuing production with first tier automotive battery manufacturers; and

    · The May 2013 completion of a $10 million self-liquidating convertible note offering.

    While I find the list of accomplishments impressive, the oddity I want to point out is that Axion's enterprise value fell when the company announced the completion of the 2012 registered direct stock offering and it fell yet again when the company announced the completion of the 2013 PIPE. In both cases Axion had about $10 million more cash after the deals than it did before the deals and it's aggregate enterprise value (which includes the newly issued shares) fell.

    In March of 2010 Axion's enterprise value stabilized in the $100 million range before the stock price began to suffer from unrelenting selling activity from a few large holders. Over the next three years the 200-day average volume ramped from 34,000 shares a day to 340,000 shares a day. Despite an impressive list of accomplishments the market capitalization fell gradually from $100 million to the current level of roughly $27 million.

    The only credible explanations for the inconsistent outcomes are:

    1.Battle fatigue because of the brutal selling we've witnessed over the last three years;

    2.The questionable presumption that bottom fishers paid fair value over the last three years; and

    3.Irrational fear that the successes Axion has accumulated over the last three years will have no value.

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    Axion Power Monthly Volume versus FINRA Short Percentage:

    (by John Petersen)

    In late January I wrote an Instablog about the precipitous decline in reported FINRA short sales as a percentage of total trading volume. Over the last two weeks that trend has accelerated and the percentages for the month of February and the last four weeks are solidly in single digits. I view this graph as another confirmation of seller exhaustion. The big uglies are history and it looks like everybody who really wanted to sell already has.

    John Petersen's instablog here.

    (click to enlarge)

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (updated 7/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
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    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (328)
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  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Wow!
    2 Jul 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    "You can't dilute a beer with a shot of whiskey."
    2 Jul 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (181) | Send Message
     
    Surely make it taste good !
    2 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    After 2 years, I'm still holding. It may take longer, but it WILL happen.
    2 Jul 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    Still adding. Trying to keep the path clear.

     

    Axion doesn't just trap the mice better, it then feeds them to the cat.
    2 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Great battery.

     

    Time matters.
    2 Jul 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    When...

     

    When?

     

    When!
    2 Jul 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    About the only thing I'd add to FPA's excellent discussion is that there is a provision that classifies a VWAP of $0.10 or less as a price failure which would result in the next installment being paid in cash instead of common shares.

     

    For purposes of my new graph, I assumed that 67 million shares would be needed to retire the debt instead of the 37 million shares that would be needed at the stated conversion price of $0.264.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    JP, interesting. I didn't see that (the price fail provision) in my incomplete read of the deal. What are the implications, do u think? (my lazy man's way of reading the deal---ask other people to do it for you!) Among other things, what happens if they don't have enough cash?
    2 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I haven't scoured the contracts in extreme detail, but my sense is that the $6 million restricted account was established to cover that risk. Otherwise it wouldn't make sense to dole the account out at the rate of $500,000 a month.
    2 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    So, if I understand this right, if we hit $.10 then we lose access to the $6m. That would shorten our 18 month runway by 9 months meaning Axion could be out of cash by calendar year-end. Of course, the length of time it takes to hit $.10 is also critical. If it happens soon, then Axion might be in a position where it will run out of cash even sooner than that.

     

    One point is that if the price of Axion's stock is being manipulated it is not something that requires enormous financial resources to do. As I noted a few days ago from data supplied by HTL, the trading losses that have been incurred in the month of June were on the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars, not millions.

     

    Based on June's data, it would appear that a stock manipulator could drive Axion's stock price below $.10 in a matter of a few weeks at a cost of less than $1m. This would presumably trigger the cash repayment provision and push Axion into a desperate circumstance.

     

    JP, thanks for sharing this info.
    2 Jul 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Axion does not have access to the $6 million today because the cash is deposited in a restricted account. It will gain access to that cash at the rate of $500,000 per month over the next year.

     

    The required installments are due $1 million a month and one has already been paid. While it is possible that the price might temporarily dip to a level where a payment or two have to be made in cash, it's patently unreasonable to assume that things will go so badly for so long that the entire restricted account will be used for debt service.
    2 Jul 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    John: So, it would seem that if the price remains below $.10 for say a week or two then goes back above it then the next tranche would be in stock.

     

    Personally, I don't see the stock price recovering until major news overpowers the selling trend. To me major news is something like a deal to supply BMW or a fleet test for Fedex/UPS.

     

    Stuff like the Phase II SBIR $1.5m government grant, a NS order for the OTR locomotive, or ePower orders for trucks 3 and 4 wouldn't do it because they are small and represent incremental steps in processes that have years to play out before they could yield meaningful revenues that would dent Axion's $8m annual burn.

     

    John, I think if we hit $.10 and trigger even one cash payment that will only cause a panic that would accelerate the death spiral. It's not the same as a bankruptcy declaration, but I think the market wouldn't make that distinction.

     

    In any case, it's unconscionable that Mr. Granville would flirt with disaster like this even if he is certain that the big deal is only weeks away.
    2 Jul 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Even evil financiers want to make money too. Why would they kill the golden goose? It'll never stay that low because they need their 85% of market plus some margin to sell into.
    2 Jul 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Apmarshall> You may be right and my experience with micro-caps may prove to be absolutely worthless in the exceptional case of Axion Power, the only micro-cap in history to bypass the growth company stage and transition directly from R&D stage valuation minimums to established industry valuation minimums.

     

    That being said, financiers who do variable rate deals are rarely willing to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs instead of nurturing it to earn their return. If their's a corporate catastrophe like you had at Beacon or A123 the'll be very difficult to deal with. Otherwise they're in the game to maximize their profit, not guarantee a loss.
    2 Jul 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4204) | Send Message
     
    apm ... I'm a bit more optimistic on news requirements tending to think additional orders from ePower could have outsized impact. Repeat of a repeat sale says commercial demand for the PbC exists, something that has been notably lacking. While I question whether NSC remains strongly interested in the PbC it is possible and an NSC order of PbCs for non-locomotive applications would send the same signal. An NSC order for an OTR locomotive (unlikely before Q4, if then) would generate enough revenue ($750k - $1 mil.) to make an impact as well as strengthen perceptions of commercial viability but not come soon enough to support share price when needed. PowerCube sales for an island micro-gird or large wind/solar power farm could be large revenue generators as well.

     

    With Robert Averill putting in $750k, it is clear Granville was not alone in undertaking the risk of a PIPE financing. If they succeed, everyone loves a winner, but ....
    2 Jul 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Given the quality of that impressive financial agreement, I assume any kind of default event such as a 'price failure' would also be subject to the 125% payment penalty as well. Is that correct John?
    2 Jul 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    If I recall correctly there is a 25% penalty for cash payments.

     

    The "game" with variable conversion securities is to run the price up and down so that you can take maximum advantage of the lowest 20 out of 40 days VWAP conversion. To maximize your profit you want the stock to have 20 days near the bottom of an acceptable range and 20 days near the top. The only time these deals crush a stock price is when the issuer is dead in the water and the financiers are fighting to get their money back before somebody else pulls the plug. When there are no other creditors the worst outcome is a lot of price volatility until the debt conversion is complete.

     

    Their real incentive to do the deal is the likelihood, however strong or weak you choose to assess it, that an issuer like Axion will come out with impressive news early in the game and get a price run that returns several hundred percent to the investors.
    2 Jul 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    JP, I will admit that I actually agree with your above assessment of the convert deal. I expect that there will be stretches when the investors want to pump up the price best they can.
    2 Jul 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >apmarshall62 ... I like to spend my idle time during the day thinking about strategies. Here is one I think pertains to Axion right now. Unless there is reason to sell into oblivion, a takeover or market cornering, there comes a point where the selling will stop. That point can be calculated with a spreadsheet but it is specific to the terms, a predetermined risk/reward model and a pain to do. Give it a try. Just fabricate a formula that mimics the terms and plug your assumptions in.

     

    For instance, if there's a situation like Axion's PIPE where you buy a specific lot at a high price but get a larger share count at a lower price then you sell right out of the chute. The idea is to sell a given allotment. Let's say no more than 30% or whatever the spreadsheet determined. You sell down hard with as small a share count as possible while hopefully spooking existing shareholders to help out & keep what your expense to a minimum. At some price the increased share count received in the next payment will cover the money spent, at the current lower price, to drive the price down initially plus some percentage more than the share count to be received if the price had stayed at the original point or higher.

     

    That is when the price is allowed to rise again. Rinse & repeat.

     

    You can stop when buying pressure makes driving the share price down uneconomical and repayment share count requires exceeding cost + future profit or you run the issuer out of shares he has to pay you with. The object is to maximize share count at lowest (actually unrealistic) price allowed by the weak hands.

     

    It is what I see going on. I can think a few other scenarios which are better suited to shorter term trading. I don't see that as practical. It also is why I don't think we are looking at short sales. As always, I'm subject to being completely wrong.
    2 Jul 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    I was in a hurry and if I'd take more time I probably would have edited out "unconscionable". I apologize for being inflammatory.

     

    DRich, I understand your point but see the game playing out on a different level. My concern goes like this:

     

    Slam the stock price down to under $.10 and keep it there. Note, based on what happened in June (see my post the other day that was based on HTL's data), it could probably be done for a loss of less than $1m.

     

    What that would do is effectively pull the financial rug out from under Axion since it's funding would stop, and with the 25% penalty, Axion would at best find itself a few months away from having to shut down operations and at worst, weeks or even days. Given that Mr. Granville was in such a bad position a couple of months ago that he took the Maxim deal in the first place, what do you all think would be the strength of his negotiating position if he finds himself in this position in the next few weeks?

     

    So, Maxim would get to rinse and repeat. If Axion couldn't get investors before, this time no one will touch the company with a ten foot pole. Maxim could step into the vacuum and get themselves a majority stake in the company, and then some, just for giving back the money that Axion thought it'd already received.

     

    The only thing that would prevent this from happening is Maxim's concern about its reputation in the industry. I've read enough of "The Dendreon Effect" to know that the SEC won't be of any help.

     

    We all here agree that Axion's technology is special and I think in the end it will be worth billions of dollars. However, it is very clear that the Axion itself is in grave danger.

     

    I still haven't had a chance to research this in depth, but contrast Axion with Hydrogenics (HYGS), a company I first learned about on this board.

     

    That company is on a bit of a roll now. I'm not quite a believer because, unlike Axion, I'm skeptical that their hydrogen technology is economically viable in the absence of regulatory requirements.

     

    In any case, that company has chosen to partner with the giants in its targeted industries rather than fight them. Those partnerships brought in cash and gave CommScope a 25% stake, Enbridge a 20% stake and GM (yes that GM) a 5% stake. Those partners validated the company's technology and are playing a major role in helping the company gain commercial traction.

     

    Maybe Axion was headed in that direction when it made its agreement with Exide. Obviously, there were execution issues that derailed that agreement. It appears that Axion either hasn't been able to make other agreements with the likes of GM, or has chosen not to. However, the road chosen sure hasn't been looking good of late, even before the Maxim deal.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >apmarshall62 ... What you describe is a take-under. What would the point of that be? If Maxim were to execute such an action they would grab a large chunk of nothing because there is no leverage to force Axion to hand over the keys & patents for nothing. I don't see any way a controlling interest could be transferred for the price of the loan.

     

    It has always been a disappointment that Axion has never found sponsorship and I wish I knew why. I'm not a big fan of this PIPE deal because it is not so good for existing stockholders. I continue to see the stock slam as an attempt to maximize share count. Scared existing shareholders can help increase that count by playing the game and selling in panic. Buying pressure would do the PIPE investors actual harm. Axion's management needs to execute in ways they never have before and do it within the next 9 to 12 months but I don't think it is a corporate suicide pact.

     

    If you are really that worried might I suggest you write the board members and see if they have any plans for proposing a "poison pill" to guard against a take-out or take-under. You need to be at the shareholder meeting and get your answers.
    3 Jul 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I was at last years' meeting and do plan to be at this year's meeting (if it's held - last years was announced June 5th) and I do plan to ask lots of questions.

     

    A poison pill would not be applicable in the scenario I describe because Axion would voluntarily give up control of the company because the alternative would be shutting down operations.

     

    If you're Maxim's investors (making a distinction between Maxim itself and its investors acting independently), why screw around making a few million on yo-yo'ing Axion's stock when you could make hundreds of millions (as us Axionistas know) by gaining control?
    3 Jul 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall - Maxim investors would not automatically gain control in the event Axion loses all its money. Suppose they run out of cash today and the stock price is under 10c, leaving 7 million unreceived. They have to pay back 25% in addition, meaning they would owe 1.75 million. Do you think 1.75 million means Maxim investors will own Axion?

     

    No, what would happen is that Axion will close shop, Axion and Maxim will agree to some valuation (likely no better for Maxim than current market), and Maxim's investors will get a piece worth 1.75 million. Failing to agree, then Axion's assets will be put up for sale.

     

    Even to Maxim investors, Axion is far more valuable as a running company, than a pile of IP and some equipment. Its IP might fetch a few million dollars. A running company can potentially fetch hundreds of millions. They cannot let Axion run out of cash. Their best bet is to yoyo the stock while accumulating.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    apm, seems to me that the new investors will want to maximize the number of shares they get. This Friday would be an excellent day to do that. If my reading of the deal is correct, that is the true-up calc date, and that calc uses the lower of the VWAP on Friday and the 20 lowest...blah blah blah.

     

    And Friday is between a major summer holiday and a Saturday, which traditionally means thin volume. All the better if you're looking to set that calc price as low as possible. Just dump into a thin mkt.
    3 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: circuit breakers?

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: I think you are stopping one step short in your thinking. I never said Maxim investors would "automatically" gain control of Axion. What I am saying is that they would be in a very strong position to do so.

     

    Let's take the scenario you present. Axion's stock price goes below $.10 and Axion successfully makes a cash payment to Maxim but has insufficient funds to continue operations.

     

    Of course, it's more valuable to everyone involved for Axion to continue operating, but to do so it would need cash. My point was that anyone who was a candidate to invest a few months ago instead of Maxim would likely be highly dismayed to find Axion in the position described in this scenario. Logically, most mainstream entities would be less likely to want to invest in the company.

     

    Given the dire straits, only the most opportunistic would be willing to invest in Axion. Given that Maxim or its investors might be driving the situation, and given that they have already completed their due-diligence on the company, who do you think would be best positioned to provide rescue financing and ongoing operating financing on what could be very short notice?

     

    So, yes, technically Axion would not be bankrupt and it's management and board would be free to decide to shut down operations or to choose amongst the deals available to it. However, as a practical matter, I think Maxim would be holding a lot of cards and Axion likely wouldn't exactly have a bunch of favorable options.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    I actually had a buy order in yesterday morning and pulled it when I read John's note. I to think Friday will be interesting.

     

    Past couple of days have been light volume. I'm hoping that means I'm wrong and that Maxim and its investors are moderating their behavior and that they'll make sure we don't approach $.10. It would seem that $.15 would be a reasonable benchmark for them to want to manage to.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >apmarshall62 ... You're having this near heart attack quality anxiety attack over all hope being lost with no chance of recovery and you're buying into it? Odd.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    ap - the disaster loan scenario you present is not a great one for Maxim investors either. We already know there were entities willing to put up money for a large share of the company. Maxim investors would not be guaranteed a piece and in fact risk being booted out of the whole pie. TG would be crazy to go back to them for more money. In addition, we assume they are acting as one when they may not. It might even be a third party short selling purely trading.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    If the New Big Uglies (could be the PIPErs, or shorts, or both) are trying to minimize Friday's price, then one straightforward approach is to still have a big chunk to sell. Which could help explain the lower volumes this week, in addition to it being a holiday week.

     

    Easy to think of ways to crush the price Friday. What would happen with, say, a million share mkt order? 2 million?

     

    Another test of the NBU's behavior will be next week, after the PIPErs get at least another 3-4 million shares on Monday. We'll get a better indication of how the NBUs are playing this---yo-yo or crusho. So far, it's been crusho, but that could just be the first half of yo-yo.
    3 Jul 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    In your very scary scenario, the investors would get sued by Axion for violation of the Securities Purchase Agreement which provides:

     

    "Each Buyer hereby agrees, severally and not jointly, for so long as such Buyer owns any Notes, such Buyer shall not (x) maintain a Net Short Position (as defined below) or (y) together with any of its affiliate Buyers, sell shares of Common Stock of the Company received by such Buyer pursuant to a Company Conversion (as defined in the Notes) during any Trading Day in an amount, in the aggregate, exceeding 15% of the composite aggregate share trading volume as reported on Bloomberg (as defined in the Warrant) of the Common Stock measured at the time of each sale of securities during such Trading Day."

     

    I think the limit is too liberal, but it does prohibit deliberate pounding away at the market. It would also be a lay down lawsuit if it could be shown that the buyers were acting in concert or coordinating their sales.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    That may explain why there has been near continuous selling, vs giant dumps. And why on some days there is very little selling early in the day, and selling picks up in the afternoon--the PIPErs have a much better idea of how many shares their up to 60% represents. But a big cap to the upside---the more other volume there is, the more the PIPErs can sell. And at up to 60% of the total, they can sell more than the buyers can buy, as long as they still have shares.

     

    Boy, there's a whole weekend's worth of work for HTL to figure out how the PIPErs might maximize their selling---maximize the MM double counting, if possible (so they can sell however much they want, because for every share they sell, there is a matching number of shares purchased in the trade count), etc.

     

    Maybe that takes a giant dump off the table Friday, if other volume is light. Maybe the day will be uneventful.

     

    All assuming the shorts are not busy, of course. There would be a downward feedback loop with them and the NBUs---the more the shorts sell, the more the NBUs can sell. And if a MM is churning shares, volume goes up. That last scenario sounds unethical at the least and perhaps illegal. Hope everybody is following the rules.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    John: " Net Short Position" the word "net" makes all the difference.

     

    Pressure via shorting without being net short is quite possible.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Does the net short prohibition include shares to be received? Or are the new investors flaunting that rule?

     

    My guess is still yo-yo.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Net short position has nothing to do with daily selling volume. They're mentioned in the same paragraph, but represent independent and distinct limitations.

     

    Selling is selling and it doesn't matter whether the sales are long or short.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    HTL, and shorting would get each PIPEr around the 15% max limitation.
    3 Jul 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: Not sure about that part. Like JP said, selling is selling. It would extend their runway though, it they wanted to do that, as well as let them hedge if that was their goal.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm not certain, either, as I have not completely read the deal docs, but the applicable words from above are:

     

    "sell shares of Common Stock of the Company received by such Buyer pursuant to a Company Conversion (as defined in the Notes)"

     

    To me, this excludes shares sold that are borrowed from others.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    And then a lot of this is looking at the numbers aspect of what they can sell via different channels and when they get more shares to sell. There are also methods in which one sells or buys that are very effective in getting stocks to move due to the psychological impact.

     

    Or you can play with the chartists.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Mr I: I think this one applies: "The holder of each Senior Convertible Note agrees that, with respect to shares of our common stock received in payment of a Senior Convertible Note as described above, to not sell shares of our common stock during any trading day in an amount, in the aggregate, exceeding 15% of the composite aggregate share trading volume of the common stock measured at the time of each sale of securities during such trading day".

     

    Note "... to not sell shares of our common stock during any trading day in an amount, ...". It doesn't say anything about "shares received" or some such. There's a possible kicker though ...

     

    What I can't say is if this is modified by "... with respect to shares of our common stock received in payment of a Senior Convertible Note as described above ..." modifies that restriction.

     

    Page 39 of http://1.usa.gov/121ApsL

     

    Uh, IS THERE A LAWYER IN THE HOUSE? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    DRich - This came up a week or so ago. I believe in Axion's technology and have "married" this stock to an extent, but I also have a great loyalty to this board and what it represents (a bunch of little guys getting together over the internet to try to balance the scales that too heavily favor institutional investors). I believe this board and others like it, or at least sites like Seeking Alpha, are only as good as the quality and openness of the discussion that takes place. If we only focus on the positive and don't fully pursue every thread of information, then we are doing a fundamental disservice to all involved. On that score, I give JP credit for pointing out this provision in the first place although it seem clear that he believes I'm blowing its importance way out of proportion.

     

    I never said that all hope is lost. What I was trying to do is point out what I saw as a serious vulnerability. More expert folks could then rebut or validate my concerns. Net/net value has been added in my opinion.

     

    I'll repeat. I have no idea how likely it is that this would happen. It does seem at odds with the way institutions like Maxim normally behave.

     

    As far as buying goes, I stated prospectively in this concentrator last week that I planned on buying more shares. I agree with JP that Axion should be worth at least $100m now. The current market cap represents an 80% discount to that number. Despite all that has happened and my concerns with management, that's a pretty healthy margin of error.

     

    As a part-time angel investor, I know that most investment rounds are down rounds and that you have to have a strong stomach.
    3 Jul 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I've offered my view of how the contracts would be interpreted by a court and the regulators. Selling is selling, regardless of whether it's long or short.
    3 Jul 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4204) | Send Message
     
    That 67 million new share estimate looks roughly consistent with apparent market expectations.

     

    The arithmetically challenged quarter sees a closing price today of $.155 share vice $.2459 on May 9, one full day after closing of the private placement of convertible securities was announced. Today's closing price calculates as 63% of the May 9 closing. 111 million shares outstanding (count before placement occurred) divided by .63 yields 176.2 million (;-) as I compute in this instance). 176.2 mil - 111 mil. = 65.2 mil.
    3 Jul 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Ampmarshall
    Some fuel for Hydrogenics

     

    GM, Honda Set Fuel Cell Alliance in Renewed Hydrogen Push
    http://bloom.bg/12ehiXH
    3 Jul 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Al, thanks for your contribution
    3 Jul 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    HTL, to me, it's clear that the agreement's language is talking only about shares received by such Buyer pursuant to a Company Conversion.

     

    I don't see how that can be interpreted differently.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    In this "game" that you describe do you believe that we should see a concerted effort to drive the stock down on the last day before conversion?

     

    And in your reading of the docs; are we to understand that the last trading day VWAP pre-conversion will supersede the previous 20 lowest and set the conversion price accordingly?

     

    Finally, you have mentioned in the past that much of the recent selling has likely been weak retail? In the "game", as you may have seen in past micro-cap conversion deals, does a little ammunition from the big guns go a long way in scaring off us little guys? I'd think the gamers would be the bulk of the volume if they were trying to influence direction.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Anything is possible, but I'd be surprised if the investors were that blatant. There's been lots of volatility over the last 40 days and most professionals learn early on that pigs get fed but hogs get slaughtered.

     

    Deliberately driving the price down on the day before a true up is a great way to get stockholders calling class action lawyers to discuss market manipulation. Frankly, life is too short for that kind of aggravation.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    I suspect you have a buy order in for Friday? If many others do as well than it might not do the huge dip that you have prognosticated. I think the issuers might be limited by the 15% of daily volume provision. And if volume is low then not too many shares will get off. Why would institutional investors waste their time if only 50-100k of dollars gets traded that day. What's your guess for end of day volume. I'd think it'd be under 300k shares which might only reflect $30,000 of real money if double count is a factor at all.
    3 Jul 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    So I assume that VWAP on the day before conversion does supercede the lowest 20 (of 40) but it is doubtful we'd see a meaningful difference between the two since it would invite lawsuits?

     

    Also I asked about volume? Do think retail has washed out somewhat and that's why we had records in June? Could all our thoughts about it being institutional bullies really be self inflicted wounds?
    3 Jul 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    HT,

     

    I read it as they can't be net short nor can they sell more then 15% of the day's trading volume (at time of transaction). Thus if only 100k shares have traded then the investors are limited to a 15K share trade. Sure all of them together could make up the majority of trading but 4+ BIG investors acting in collusion might bring unwanted attention that would cost more to defend than the meager upside one could gain by acting in concert - imo.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    There's no way to tell for sure, but the total volume for June was 12.5 million shares, which suggests that about 6.25 million shares moved from the hands of sellers to the hands of buyers. I have to believe that the new investors counted for about 4 million shares of that volume and the balance represented normal sell-side trading plus a few shares from holders who were spooked enough by the deal to sell.

     

    There certainly wasn't enough volume to make me think that there was any mass exodus among retail holders Since it looks like retail holds something on the order of 95 million shares, the base still seems very strong to me.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    apmarshall,

     

    I very much appreciate your comments and agree with everything you said except about the valuation. I think understanding these new potential pitfalls that come from the new financing are extremely important and I think this discussion has been very helpful. For me this discussion has emphasized two points. First, as if we needed to be reminded of this again, every dollar that someone invests in Axion they need to be prepared to lose. Second, the inability to find real investors creates man problems for the company.

     

    As to the valuation, Axion seems to me to be between a series B and series C venture company, which would put the value between $25 - 50M. Given the size of the market and value of the technology I think you can make a good argument that Axion should be worth considerably more than a typical company at that stage. But where I get stuck is with management. TG effects all of the key points that are used to value the company. Because of management we are more likely to have the company go bankrupt (or have some bankruptcy like event as you have described), less likely to make a good deal with the necessary partners (limiting upside), less likely to find the new applications, less likely to find good investors in the future to prevent dilution of current shareholders, and more likely to have other surprises. Having said that my hope is that management's current problems are the result of having to operate in an extremely difficult environment and that once there is success they will be less defensive and will be in a position to make better decisions.

     

    The other piece of the valuation issue, is that the share price itself negatively effects the valuation. For a normal company a lower share price just represents a buying opportunity, but for Axion the lower price creates its own problems. I have been buying so I think the value is considerably above where we are today, but I can't justify $100M. My number would be closer to $50M.

     

    Thanks.
    4 Jul 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Axion's equivalent of a B round financing was the $18 million Quercus Trust transaction in 2008 that valued the company at about $40 million post money.

     

    Axion's equivalent of a C round financing was the $26 million 2009 private placement where four major investors decided it deserved a post-money valuation of roughly $50 million.

     

    Since public company valuations are usually 2x private placement prices, Axion should have had a stabilized market cap in the $100 million range, which is exactly what happened before two bankruptcy trustees started pushing and shoving at the pay window in an illiquid stock.

     

    Your talk of a $25 to $50 million fair value for Axion is laughably small and ignores both the history of the company and the progress that's been made since the last major financing.

     

    Two weeks ago I was in Sweden to speak at the annual meeting of a private equity fund that is heavily invested in a battery company. While the battery company is focused on a different chemistry, it's like Axion in many respects. They're changing their product architecture and having to develop new manufacturing methods. Their chemistry is far more resource constrained.

     

    The battery company has an automated battery assembly process and a manual electrode sheet formation process, just like Axion did before it commissioned the automated carbon sheeting process earlier this year. They have some ideas about how they might be able to automate their sheeting process, there hasn't been any significant development work on that project. They're about three years into testing with one major customer and getting ready to launch their first demonstration project.

     

    Their post-money valuation for the most recent private financing was about $100 million, which would suggest a public company valuation in the $200 million range.

     

    Talk of bankruptcy in the same sentence with the word Axion is absurd because Axion has no debt that isn't self liquidating through monthly conversion into common stock. You can't have a bankruptcy without a capital structure based on permanent debt.

     

    Axion's stock price has been baldy battered over the last three years by events outside its control. The most recent financing was mildly toxic to the stock price but not at all toxic for the corporation.
    4 Jul 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Companies only have so many chances to attract decent valuation rounds from professional investors. Almost everybody passes when they see a proposed financing for a company they've already passed on and/or the price has continued to crater, commercial success is still lacking, and the sector has been a disaster. Success attracts money, and that works in reverse, too. The fact that the best that Axion could do was a discount PIPE unambiguously means they used up their good financing chances already.

     

    In my view, the ONLY realistic chance the stock has to reverse the outgoing tide is huge, sticky news, and the sooner the better or else the tide will only get stronger. A hugely positive deal with BMW and a Tier 1 battery supplier just might do the trick.
    4 Jul 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    News is essential. I'm not necessarily convinced that it has to be huge. Markets are driven by the collective expectations of public stockholders and right now those expectations are as low as I've ever seen them even though the fundamental business is developing well and without meaningful setbacks beyond the predictable delays. Just as moods sour quickly, they brighten quickly and some of the biggest shifts I've ever seen with client companies were not attributable to specific events.

     

    The news has to be substantive and credible. Nothing more will do and nothing more is needed.
    4 Jul 2013, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I was referring to the stage of the company and not the number of the round of financing. Axion is still a very risky company that is years away from having significant revenues. The company has had only a few sales and only one repeat sale, and that from a small struggling company. Outside of epower, no customer has said that Axion's product meets the combination of price, performance, durability, manufacturability, and availability to be a solution to any of their problems. That puts the company in a Series B/C stage.

     

    The fact that in the past Axion had deals that gave the company a higher valuation is not relevant now. If the entities doing those investments would have known that in 2013 Axion would have no commercial customers yet, I doubt they would make the investments. Your example of another battery company that is like Axion is also not relevant. That company has different management, different technology and a different past. Would those investors be interested in funding Axion? If there is an announcement about BMW then it will be a different story.

     

    I believe in Axion, I own the stock and have been buying recently. But it is ridiculous to ignore the state of the company and the real risks the company faces. I agree with Mr. Investor's point about only having so many chances. The fact that Axion has been unlucky creates its own dangers even though that is not fair. One of those dangers is that the stock drops below $0.10.
    4 Jul 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    That's simply not true. References to typical venture capital rounds in privately held companies that negotiate financing based on business fundamentals are meaningless in the context of a public company where the only metric that matters to financiers is the prevailing stock price.

     

    Axion has left the R&D stage and is making a rapid transition to a commercial enterprise with an all-star cast of disclosed and undisclosed potential customers. When the first customer makes a credible arrival, the market will value Axion as a transition stage company which is typically in the $150 to $500 million range.

     

    While risks abound in transition stage companies, ramp rates are often quite substantial and the information that's been developed through four years of grueling testing by first tier customers proves beyond question that the PbC is a very important advance in battery technology.
    4 Jul 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    With the discount PIPE hanging over, and probably beating, everyone's heads, my guess is that huge news is needed, and it must be sticky. A couple days or week's effect and then another monthly PIPE beatdown just won't do. Pre-PIPE, when we were around 30 cents anyway, merely good news may have been enough, Not anymore. Not even close, with the price 1/2 that.

     

    But again, I think the BMW news, if it's a true biggie, can probably be the Savior. Hopefully we'll see soon.
    4 Jul 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1171) | Send Message
     
    ^ sales please. repeated and otherwise.
    4 Jul 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the balance of the year, ISTM we basically have 5 area opportunities for meaningful positive news items to occur. Ranked very roughly in what I would consider to be order of needle-moving significance:

     

    1) Some sort of announcement that serves to confirm that BMW *WILL* be using PbC somewhere in its lineup in the MYs to come. IE Marriage announcement between Axion and one of BMW's existing suppliers.

     

    2) NS999 launches with positive PR and some indication that the program *will* expand going forward, possibly to include OTR.

     

    3) Any PowerCube sale of decent size... A 4MW sale anywhere would be a beautiful thing and would help bring in some bucks.

     

    4) Repeat orders and expansion of the program with ePower. PR to show meaningful fuel-savings and ROI using PbC hauling real-world freight under actual conditions.

     

    5) SBIR Phase II win with attendant disclosure of automotive partner identity.

     

    Plenty to quibble with plus also the order I know. It's probably more like BMW first and then a four-way tie for second place... but let's think about that list... what are the odds for at least *something* happening in the direction of goodness for each of them in the next six months? I gotta think better than 50/50 for just about every one in that time frame. Maybe not the whole enchilada, but at least some piece for each. So that gives us what kind of overall odds? My Science Officer calculates the probability as 1- 1/2^5 that at least one good thing happens this year, or about 96.8% favorable chance. On the other hand, 5 for 5 seems not out of the question---If we wanna bring emotions into it and call 3.2% a chance. ;)
    5 Jul 2013, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1171) | Send Message
     
    i mean, that's why i am holding, but i cannot buy more until something material happens in terms of sales. price is always a mitigating factor, but now pricing that would peck my interest also carry with them some really tough financial questions.
    5 Jul 2013, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    MM, I totally get that. I mean, SALES. SALES dambit! For only sales is *true* terra firma. But the reality is, right now hope is all I got left. And If I can't have sales, well I'll take news. Just about any positive news. And I'll be dang grateful I will. It's far better than trying to breathe the high vacuum of rarefied space. Which I hereby report, is a fully wretched endeavor.
    5 Jul 2013, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    "That's simply not true. References to typical venture capital rounds in privately held companies that negotiate financing based on business fundamentals are meaningless in the context of a public company where the only metric that matters to financiers is the prevailing stock price."

     

    You referenced a private transaction to justify a valuation for Axion. My point was that if Axion were to be evaluated in a negotiation based on business fundamental ( and based on what is publicly known today, e.g. the state of the relationship with BMW) Axion would be at a Series B/C stage where a typical value would be in the $25-$50m range. The value would then be adjusted based on plusses (value and uniqueness of the technology, ...) and minuses (management). Axion probably could not have found an investor to pay more than the share price but they could have found an investor to believe in the company and hold the stock and be there for future rounds and they did not find that. As others have pointed out none of the strategics were willing to be that investor either despite their great need for the technology.

     

    to Mathieu and 481086,

     

    Sales would be great. My concern is that we are not likely to see significant sales for years given the lead times with BMW and NS. That is why the news is so important. I agree with 481086's list and the order with BMW being far and away the most important for the reasons iindelco has listed. Where I am struggling is with the probability of the BMW announcement. After the call Ed Buiel said that the BMW news was the same as what we heard in 2009. So what is different now? If you look at the transcript TG says the testing is over and the next step is to talk to battery suppliers. He doesn't say that the tests were a great success and BMW has ordered their battery suppliers to work with Axion. TGs answers would be consistent with that response from BMW or something more like "well the test results were ok, for us to even consider using your batteries, you would need to make a deal with our battery supplier, here are there names good luck." I want to believe that the answer was closer to the first scenario but given Ed's comments and the way TG communicates, I haven't gotten there yet. Even if the BMW were only a 50/50 chance, I would be happy and if the odds were higher I could get closer to JP's value.
    5 Jul 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg...go easy on JP, he has lowered his eval down from $1B + to $150-500 Million....he's making progress and hates what he sees right now as much or more than us.

     

    The main reason I lowered my valuation a while back was two things:
    1. When A123 only brought $150 million with 2 bidders - I don't think most realize how big this is and what it says about the battery space as a whole.
    2. When it was obvious how many shares would be outstanding when this financing was over & then next 100 million share approval that's coming.
    5 Jul 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1171) | Send Message
     
    i expect Norfolk sales in 4th q, i am buoyed (unlike shares) by repeat business from epower. your terms are a little to vague to have any meaning to me. what is significant sales? Buiel knows more about PbC chemistry than i do. he knows no more about AXPW's current relationship with BMW than i do.
    5 Jul 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg> References to what typical valuations should be for B/C venture capital rounds in private companies are about as absurd as comparisons get. I at least provided a specific reference to another company in the same industry at a less advanced state of development. Your point is obvious – "the sky is falling and all is lost." I disagree.
    5 Jul 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Seems to be a lot of that attitude floating around these days.
    5 Jul 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Let's just say that the broader market does not display the profound and overwhelming sense of dread one encounters on the concentrators these days. You'd almost think there were infiltrators in our midst who are more artful than OMY but just as prone to excesses.
    5 Jul 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    I know you have been a frequent recipient of JPs unique view points. I am done responding to him on this other than to say that different people have different views and the idea that being a buyer of the stock who argues that the company is only worth 3 times it current market cap instead of 6 times makes me an infiltrator is ridiculous, especially given the number of long time shareholders who are out entirely.

     

    I think your point about A123 is an interesting one. I don't know enough about A123 to say how unique their technology was. In general being in bankruptcy would lower the value considerably. Do you think that tells us that the battery space is too crowded and it will be difficult for anyone to make money because there will always be someone willing to undercut to get the sales.

     

    I think we are ok on the share count. It is worrisome for the future but at this price it is ok. If we can have a good announcement then we can raise the price and get better terms in the future.
    5 Jul 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu,

     

    I was super encouraged by epower as well and it is a major reason I bought more shares. I think that is a great validation of the technology and we may get a few hundred thousand of revenue in the next year. How big an order do you see from NS? I would love to see an indication from NS that they plan to use technology and have a rollout over the next several years, but from what I understand it will be several years before we get millions of dollars in revenues from them? I see significant revenue as enough to make us cash flow positive.
    5 Jul 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Make no mistake, I'm more than a little miffed with Axion but it is only tangential with the G&D so often expressed here. That said, I can understand why it is prevalent.

     

    I tend to think that those who constantly drone on do so because of pure fear of loss brought about from not understanding the risk or have unmet, unrealistic(?) expectations going into this sector and/or company. I admit I was guilty of both cases of disillusion of view until I understood what I'd done. I was investing (actually hoping to do long timeframe, 18 mos., swing trading) in Rails which is often quick to adapt & adopt. Boy Howdy, I was early, thus wrong, on that count but I decided to become a "tarheel" because the technology is superb, management sheparded the company well through development and my thesis progressed. Now I'm challenged by the lackadaisical or, maybe, disinterested attitude toward the financial side of the business and/or my thesis falling apart. I still believe in battery power finding its way into the Rails but I'm now conflicted about how this will happen.

     

    Then there's been a nearly complete failure of all new technology companies in this sector and failure to gain any traction in the Market. Great ideas. Needed ideas. Horrible results. The subsidies available are skewing the search away from solution diverification but the whole industry is suffering from a lack of competitive sponsorship & private investment. I don't know whether private investment is interested but whatever interest there might be is crowded out. The public sector needs sponsor research and finance/subsidize results and not sponsor specific technology. The public sector was, once upon a time, much better at stimulating progress by funding what appeared might work in the public interst exemplified in the "X Prize". Such is the outcome when the public asylum is owned and operated by the corporate inmates. I keep reading forecasts of huge strides coming for the storage sector but I see no successful demonstrations. The future customers seem to be uneducated about what they need and keep looking for that "silver bullet" technology that will perform at high margin and lower cost than current energy generation. A hopeless endeavor.
    5 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully some day hence when we're all gathered in celebration of our success, we can hoist our mugs in solemn toast to the "dark days of 2013" and savor the rough road we traveled... yeah there was some carping, and teeth gnashing, and a bit of strife along the way, but it was tough times...everyone was tested...fear and doubt caused a lot of soul-searching on the part of many...a time of questioning and re-examination. Some nerves surely got raw. But it was all just a product of the strain. If the price was hanging out comfortably at sixty cents we'd probably be a lot more jolly. And patient. It does seem though that we're approaching something of an endgame. Endgame for this management, this strategy, this stock symbol. It is nearly upon us. Our time to pass through the needle and the eye of the storm. The back half of this year to me seems the culmination. Either this plan, these pieces, this team begins to bear fruit, or eventually it will become time for a serious re-evaluation and re-organization. As others have expressed, we're on course for a binary outcome. We're getting closer to it, to knowing our fate, everyday. It's looming. Our "...bodies are aching and our time is at hand." We're either coming to a bridge, or to dead-end. But one or the other, it's coming. If it's the bridge, we keep on truckin'--- 'Cause we got a mighty convoy, rockin' through the night...

     

    But If it's the dead end, well, then we'll need to find a different plan.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    "ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances...."

     

    everyone can believe and emot what they want. I've made my decision and I'm not going to sweat it. It does what it does. If my due diligence was faulty, there's really no one to blame except that guy in the mirror.

     

    So. Let's just wait it out and go out and have some fun in the meantime.....
    6 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1042) | Send Message
     
    From my hometown newspaper:

     

    Blaze at Brammo Quickly Put Out -- Fire Believed To Have Started In Battery Room

     

    "the fire started in the company's battery room, where a battery was attached to a diagnostic machine or charger. Fire officials believe that's how the fire started, though the cause still is under investigation."

     

    http://bit.ly/15dEjzl

     

    They don't say what kind of battery it was. You don't suppose it could have been a lithium battery, do ya???
    2 Jul 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Wayne, Brammo not Zero. Got it. Weren't they the one's that were going to keep the Geek Squad busy?
    -
    Zero recalls electric motorcycles

     

    http://bit.ly/14OAgHx
    2 Jul 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • TevisM
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Brammo motorcycles use lithium ion batteries. The Enertia Plus model claims an 80 mile range in urban commuting.
    6 Jul 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    ATDF has a 144K bid floating around and CDEL has a 100K. Right now they are battling for top of the heap on the bid and whenever one moves up, the other moves to match.

     

    Let's hope they are "Tenacious (D)".

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jul 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    I have a question about the viability of a hybrid commuter train, preferably using the Axion battery. I’ve never seen any one raise this issue, but I admit that I probably miss the majority of posts in the Axion Concentrators so maybe its been talked about before.

     

    First some context. In Ottawa where I live they have a bus based transit system. The system uses dedicated bus transit corridors fed by innumerable diesel based bus feeder routes. For the last ten years the city has been in the process of planning an upgrade to the transit system. In dealing with the city planners, it is clear that their preference has been for an electric train (using overhead wires) as the backbone of the system to replace the dedicated bus corridors. The feeder routes will continue to use conventional buses. They have decided that they will dig a tunnel for the downtown portion and put train tracks on the bus corridors.

     

    The system also currently has a single diesel based commuter train going about 8 kilometers on what was a unused train track. This is not a main route and will remain unchanged. There are a number of other existing track tracks in the city which are underused. But as there is occasional use of these tracks by the freight or passenger train companies, these are being ignored by those planning the city’s transit system.

     

    As far as I can tell there have been two primary arguments for electric trains as opposed to diesel trains. The first was that diesel trains require some form of grade separation and so couldn’t be used on streets where traffic could also be running. Originally they were planning to run the electric trains on downtown streets (similar to a long streetcar), before they decided on a tunnel. This argument seems to be irrelevant at this point, but it did help the planners to get buy-in for the electric train. The other issue was environmental impacts, with people arguing that electric trains don’t have any pollution. (Obviously pollution / emissions occurs with most electric generation, but it occurs somewhere else so it is ignored by the municipality).

     

    I’m wondering if some kind of hybrid diesel based commuter train would have been possible. It would have had the same functionality as the electric system without the need for the overhead wires and electric infrastructure. Plus it would have allowed the city to use train tracks which can’t be converted to electric rail, allowing a much more effective system with a minimum of infrastructure expenditure. Does anyone know of a hybrid diesel train commuter system? If they don’t exist, why isn’t this being pursued?
    2 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure the home team will be participating.

     

    http://bit.ly/14LlaTj
    2 Jul 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    This was shared on a recent concentrator:
    http://bit.ly/10IWXgH
    "BROOKVILLE AWARDED CONTRACT TO MANUFACTURE FIRST AMERICAN DESIGNED AND PRODUCED OFF-WIRE CAPABLE MODERN STREETCARS FOR CITY OF DALLAS"

     

    Did anyone ever identify the batteries to be used?
    2 Jul 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Pztrick44, on the batteries being identified, I don't think so.
    2 Jul 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    I looked heavily approx. 2 weeks ago and could find no information concerning what direction Brookville might go in to satisfy the energy storage requirements for this application.
    2 Jul 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking AGM. Weren't they involved at one point with NS on a project which did not go too well? Another central Penn. company, though.
    2 Jul 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    No surprise:
    "... powered by overhead catenary or onboard lithium-ion batteries, says Kleppinger. The technology charges the batteries while the streetcar runs on catenary power. When in battery mode, the e-BRID uses electricity stored from regenerative braking."

     

    http://bit.ly/13k54Er
    2 Jul 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    JohnM: That's not the Brookville design, of course, but its good info. We still don't really know which batteries Brookville is using.

     

    Also, as I recall that design will only run for a short range "off wire".

     

    Of course, defining "off wire" could be done without considering how far it can go that way. Also, is burying the wire in the street really creating a true "off wire" streetcar, or just moving the location of the wire?
    2 Jul 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4204) | Send Message
     
    trip > "Also, as I recall that design will only run for a short range "off wire"."

     

    IIRC, one of the articles on the DART project noted that the line runs 1.6 miles and will be "off wire" 1.0 mile.
    2 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • EBuiel
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    The solicitation did not allow for lead acid batteries to be used because of maintenance problems. The solicitation is public information.
    5 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1041) | Send Message
     
    Thank Mr. Buiel for that info.

     

    Is this one of the cart/horse issues for AXPW. While Axion is a Lead battery it behaves considerably differently than my Grandfathers battery. Therefore it gets lumped in as a Lead battery and discarded immediately. If so, sales needs to follow Rich and call it a Carbon battery (with a little bit of lead).
    Like Dove soap - 99% pure (pure what?)
    http://bit.ly/13zgYJD

     

    Axion PbC - Made up 100% of Carbon and materials!
    5 Jul 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    E Power on rails.

     

    Here is another. The link has fun link to alpha version 0.1 of our favorite train: Norfolk Southern Unveils Zero Emission Plug-in Electric Train

     

    Read more: European Trains Could Soon Become Hybrids Thanks to Regenerative Braking System | Inhabitat - Sustainable Design Innovation, Eco Architecture, Green Building

     

    http://bit.ly/19TIiWq
    2 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    07/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in the A.M.?).
    # Trds: 57, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 324355, AvTrSz: 5690
    Min. Pr: 0.1510, Max Pr: 0.1650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1589
    # Buys, Shares: 23 115660, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1615
    # Sells, Shares: 34 208695, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1575
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.80 (35.7% “buys”), DlyShts 73805 (22.75%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.37%

     

    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/01: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1914, in 40 days: $0.1627
    07/02: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1875, in 40 days: $0.1593

     

    Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445, 324.

     

    It was sort of a bullish day today, although there was no clear or consistent trend in price movement. Of the twenty-six peeks I got a bid changes, seventeen were increases and eight were decreases (some uncovered). Of the twenty-two ask changes I saw, ten were increases (some uncovered) and twelve were decreases. We did get our typical late-day weakness beginning around 14:00, but it wasn't enough to push price below the low ranges seen through 11:30. For me, in this equity, that's bullish! Note that our VWAP does reflect this, up +$0.0021 from yesterday! :-)) To $0.1589 from $0.1568.

     

    This is reinforced by the buy and sell VWAP changes from yesterday: to $0.1615 from $0.1574 for the buy and to $ 0.1575 from 0.1563 for the sell. CDEL had an early 100K bid in at $0.1412 again and at 11:15 I caught ATDF with a 144K bid at $0.155. Late in the day ATDF bumped it to $0.1555, but it got pulled after about 15 minutes. Then it came back at 15:55 at $0.16 x 138K. AFAICT, CDEL just held their bid steady and never got near the top. For quite some time, smaller bids by ATDF and CDEL moved lock-step up to stay at the top of the bids. Unfortunately, they filed for divorce between 13:10 and 13:13 and there seems to have been no visitation rights either – never seen together again.

     

    Average trade size looks like it is recovering a bit, but keep in mind our price range will tend to foster larger trade sizes. For that reason I don't look (yet?) at it as a sign of increasing bullishness, although it may be that.

     

    Our buy:sell has been trending the right direction long enough to affect the 10-day average. If this holds just another few days, the average will be back in normal range. We did finish the day with our buy percentage right at the calculated long-term trend and we seem to be heading towards having a more normal behavior going forward.

     

    Looking at some trend lines I had added to my price chart, I note that on Friday VWAP bounced off what would be support in traditional TA and we've now had a second day of moving up and away. This might be symptomatic of the EOQ-effect I touched on yesterday. We don't have a clue if this will turn into an “appreciable rise” or a “flat” trend, but it's nice to see some support appear. It'll be a while before we can guess if it's just a short-term thing or not. However ...

     

    Looking at my experimental inflection point changes below, and the charts themselves, there seems to be the seeds of optimism. It's really too early to say if we'll see a rise or a flat price trend develop though. I have been mentioning the last few days that I can't characterize this as strengthening yet, but it does appear to be a reduced rate of weakening is happening. As before, the newer version below, in which I'm gaining increasing confidence, is showing greater improvement than the original calculations. This is more apparent on the chart, which shows higher lows and highs in the periods since 6/9. If I could apply traditional TA to it, I would say it's suggestive of a double bottom. I think looking at the raw numbers in my instablog too will give a better feel for the trend.

     

    We may be on the cusp of transitioning from “reducing rate of weakening” to “increasing strength”. We should now in another couple of days. One caveat: a short week may interrupt the development. Lot's of times folks take extra precautions when there's shortened weeks and we have unrest in various parts of the world, Egypt in this case.

     

    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: 21.6%, -1.7%, -10.3%, -2.0%, -1.6%, 0.3%
    5-day change: 157.6%, 8.4%, 2.9%, 27.5%, 19.3%, 63.1%
    5-day rate of change change: 105.1%, 24.0%, 171.4%, 15.9%, 2336.7%, 55.0%

     

    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: 36.7%, 9.4%, 3.3%, 24.1%, 13.5%, 36.4%
    5-day change: 76.0%, 30.7%, 92.6%, 41.1%, 61.8%, 50.6%
    5-day rate of change change: 73.2%, 15.2%, 61.8%, 33.0%, 46.6%, 39.0%

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jul 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    http://cbsloc.al/16MUKlk

     

    Slightly OT, but does highlight a need of many for some degree of residential backup. What isn't mentioned in the piece is water. Probably a significant portion of these 50,000 are on well-water with electric pumps. PGE power (and thus water) has a nasty habit of being cutting off just when you need it most, IE during a wildfire and/or heatwave. High winds that often accompany each both exacerbate wildfires and threaten power lines in their own right. Having backup power and thus water during such could mean the difference between saving your house and watching it burn. I lived through that firsthand (with positive outcome) when I was 16 years old--(eyes and throat full of poison oak smoke too yeehaw). A full swimming pool and an ICE firepump would have been a good thing to have too. But reliable backup power is (and was) a must. Fussing with a generator that decides to be finicky at a time of crisis would be no fun. Luckily that didn't happen then. But a safe, reliable, robust lead-acid battery bank sure would be a nice bit of insurance for just such a time. I don't know if PbC will ever actually get to play in this space, but I still think its virtues could well serve a slice of that market--big expensive homes in wildfire country where power is always more than a comfort and sometimes is life.
    2 Jul 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Smoke acts as a conductor of electricity.
    That's one I didn't know.
    2 Jul 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Application of Life-Cycle Assessment to Nanoscale Technology:
    Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles
    http://1.usa.gov/19V8RdL

     

    Key Results and Conclusions
    The study showed that the batteries that use cathodes with nickel and cobalt, as well as solvent-based electrode processing, have the highest potential for environmental impacts. These impacts include resource depletion, global warming, ecological toxicity, and human health impacts. The largest contributing processes include those associated with the production, processing, and use of cobalt and nickel metal compounds, which may cause adverse respiratory, pulmonary, and neurological effects in those exposed. There are viable ways to reduce these impacts, including cathode material substitution,
    solvent-less electrode processing, and recycling of metals from the batteries.
    Material and processing choices specific to producers, suppliers, and recyclers in the supply chain were not the only key contributing factors to overall environmental impacts associated with the batteries‘ life cycles. Among other findings, global warming potential and other environmental and health impacts were shown to be influenced by the electricity grids used to charge the batteries prior to vehicle operation.
    Specifically, the study results indicate that the ― use stage ‖
    is an important driver of impacts for the life cycle of the battery, particularly when batteries are used with more carbon-intensive grids.
    In addition, the SWCNT nanotechnology applications assessed show promise for improving the energy density and ultimate performance of the Li-ion batteries in vehicles. However, the energy needed to produce these anodes in these early stages of development is significant (i.e., may outweigh potential energy efficiency benefits in the use stage). Over time, if researchers focus on reducing the energy intensity of the manufacturing process before commercialization, the overall environmental profile of the technology has the potential to improve dramatically.
    2 Jul 2013, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    This is OT
    The European auto market fell to pieces in May.
    May was the worst month in 20 years Actually May of 1993. Only the UK had an up month in May.
    http://bit.ly/14OHyLe

     

    They think the fall is slowing but it still looks bad to me.
    French Car Sales at 16-Year Low
    After Sharp Drop in First-Half Registrations, Sector Is Seen Stabilizing; Declines Posted in Italy, Spain
    In Spain, new-car registrations slid 4.9% in the first half Italy 10%.
    New registrations of cars in Germany were down 8.8% in the first five months of the year, worse than the 6.8% contraction for the European Union as a whole

     

    In June
    Germany was down 4.5%
    Italy down 5.5%
    France down 9%
    Spain down I'm not sure how much.
    "In Spain, one of the markets hit hardest by Europe's debt crisis, a government subsidy scheme has helped sales to individuals, which rose 13.6 percent on the year, but this failed to offset a 24.4 percent decline in sales to companies."
    http://bit.ly/14OHBqu
    http://reut.rs/14OHBqw
    2 Jul 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Some general stuff on EVs of all kinds.

     

    The EV way to clean up our cities
    From Newcastle University UK
    It seems the cities air is cleaner if you drive EVs. Less CO2 is produced using the UK's grid as well.
    No mention of the airborne Lead, Mercury, Arsenic, Cadmium, Uranium etc.
    http://bit.ly/17GAfYI

     

    What’s the Future Hold for Light Electric Vehicles? IDTechEx Tells All
    It seems they like the eBike. It seems to me I heard someone say the future of electric vehicles has 2 wheels.
    http://bit.ly/19qDHHz

     

    Electric Vehicle Industry to Grow to $294 Billion Business by 2023; Sales to Hit 116 Million
    Including electric wheelchairs, eBikes etc.
    http://bit.ly/17GAgMa
    2 Jul 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Article on Leyden. They're the ones that got the USCAR SS development contract.

     

    They need high power and long life but not high energy density? OHMY. Whoda thunk it?

     

    And DCA. That's important as well? Now I'm even more perplexed.

     

    Custom Chemistry Could Bode Well for Start-Stop Batteries

     

    "Indeed, the start-stop market calls for a chemistry unlike any previously used in the automotive industry. Start-stop vehicles, so named because they automatically stop and restart at traffic signals and intersections, are expected to start at least 10 times more frequently than today's conventional cars. As a result, they need batteries with higher cycle life and power, but they don't necessarily need the high-energy chemistries now being employed in pure electric cars."

     

    "By combining the Li-imide electrolyte with a lithium manganese oxide (LMO) cathode and lithium titanate oxide (LTO) anode, Leyden also claims its battery more easily accepts and delivers charge."

     

    http://bit.ly/12E8bnE
    2 Jul 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Sounds a lot like another type of battery I've heard about. The chemistry looks expensive. I wonder how long it will take Li-mide to go from lab to road. Maybe these major automakers could use a certain type of Pb battery to develop the system and fill in until Leyden can go into production.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    DRich, And now back to our regularly scheduled dream.

     

    "When we last saw the PbC battery it was looking for a home....."

     

    During the intermission we got to see "Tom Terrific" ;))

     

    http://bit.ly/PeCk63
    3 Jul 2013, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Interesting certification news from ZBB's Chinese joint venture:

     

    http://bit.ly/19VBkA7

     

    Not sure what to make of it since ZBB didn't make a formal announcement and I don't know anything about such agencies in China. Sure seems like something will break one way or another based on the cancellation of the shareholder meeting.
    2 Jul 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Looks like an interesting report:

     

    http://bit.ly/15eVJf4

     

    Too bad Axion isn't included on the list of companies towards the bottom.
    3 Jul 2013, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Interesting comment the S/S on a new BMW car just purchased in Dallas:

     

    http://bit.ly/14P5JsZ
    3 Jul 2013, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Maybe it's a field trial for a Bosch starter? The ultimate starting machine.

     

    Lot's of forums out there with a level of discontent over their SS system. Rough starts and it beats the battery to death. Then they blame it on the driver and charge them big bucks for the new battery and the reprogramming charge. Hey. all German technology can't be great.
    -
    GM working out the rough edges on the Start-up. I don't think GM wants to follow the pack like in Europe with their Opel/Vauxhall brands with the same garbage because they know the US market will not accept it.

     

    GM looking to remove the Hurky-Jerky. Smoothin’ out Dual Clutch Tranmissions

     

    "The TC design investigated by the GM engineers is smaller than a conventional TC, but the housing containing the TC and the twin multiplate clutches is about 25 mm longer axially than on a standard DCT. In addition to the main benefit of eliminating the risk of launch shudder, as the shifting clutches do not slip, the authors cite other potential advantages of the arrangement. These include improved transient response and acceleration (thanks to the reduced inertia), the decoupling of the engine and transmission to allow engine idle without the aid of a clutch, and torque multiplication to improve engine starting under stop-start operation.

     

    The latter will help ease some of the complex compromises surrounding dual mass flywheel design and NVH under restart, say the engineers, and DCTC users will perceive quicker vehicle acceleration response following an auto restart from rest."

     

    http://bit.ly/15eZTUh
    3 Jul 2013, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Hi Stefan:

     

    We have the solution: That man must use AXION POWER PbC.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    3 Jul 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/122oNlZ

     

    Mentions AXPW by name, but with an asterisk

     

    * Denotes a client of Allen & Caron, publisher of this blog
    3 Jul 2013, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    "Another company exploring new lead-carbon battery technology to great effect is Axion Power International Inc* "

     

    Ugh, I hope Axion is doing more than "exploring" ... really, wtf.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Stefan: "to great effect"

     

    If you focus on that, seems accurate! :-(( or :-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Think about it for a minute. Allen & Caron is Axion's PR firm and the best they can do is call Exide a failure, Valence (in Chapter 11) a success and Axion's working on it?

     

    I love the battery and have a high regard for management, but the PR apparatus is broken and desperately needs a major overhaul.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    If you guys will allow Pollyanna to interject here: :>)

     

    I'll even go ahead and throw JP under the bus on this one (his post below) on this particular press release. A lack of drum & bugles in this particular case may be our best friend.

     

    HTL's remark below on "to great effect" I agree. Seems accurate.

     

    "but all recent tests have produced positive results".

     

    Now my 8th grade English teacher, Mrs. Galloway, would hold my hand (as she always did as a warning that a teaching moment was upon me) and she would ask, me

     

    "Now, Brian, what does the word "all" mean? "
    To which I would reply, "All."
    And she would answer, "Excellent, Brian, excellent ! "

     

    So our legitimate questions regarding the testing results with BMW would seem to have results that are "positive".

     

    I read both of those above quotes as compelling remarks (ol' JP's cranky remarks notwithstanding) :>)

     

    I remember with great clarity the New York Titans, the AFL team that was purchased by Sonny Werblin and his acquisition of Joe Namath through the draft in 1965. In those days, the giant in college coaching was Bear Bryant at Alabama. When asked at a press conference whether Joe Namath was worth a high draft pick, Bryant replied, " He can play quarterback."
    That was it. That's all he said. But from him that was drums & bugles.
    Maybe same-same here?

     

    Now, I'm not calling anybody negative, (Lord knows I like and admire the folks on this board) but I've been waiting since 1973 to use this: "The nattering naybobs of negativism" ( a'hem.......) can discolor the Kool-Aid.

     

    I know absolutely, positively, and would testify in court that NS will not allow any-bleeping-body anyway anyhow to say anything whatsoever about their testing. They will release information when they release information.

     

    I'll also bet dollars to doughnuts (with any policeman alive) that BMW is the same way and has the same attitudes.

     

    And why does that matter? We (collectively) are in a state of perpetual exasperation and our angst shrieks that we want Axion management to give us something. We're stockholders dammmmit , and we want answers now !

     

    And people in hell want ice water. I believe and have put obscene amounts of money (for my tiny wallet anyway) where my mouth is on the bet that Axion is progressing nicely and its products are proving themselves to great effect (to coin a phrase). I believe we have been warned to put a sock in it.......... and that includes our PR firm. Soooooooooo . . . . . . .

     

    e-Power? Evidently no such problem. So the company is chattering away like a magpie. We'll see how long that continues. My bet is that when e-Power gets close to the gold they will install their own cone of silence. :>)

     

    At any moment I'll break out into a rendition of Chim-Chim-Cheree.
    5 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood: Nice expression of your sentiment.

     

    Thanks for bringing some cheer and optimism!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I'd be somewhat surprised if BMW made any announcement that highlighted Axion. I'm expecting that BMW will announce a supply agreement with whoever the manufacturing partner utilizing a completely new type of LAB. We would know the difference but the battery would be the product of the presently unknown battery OEM. Such an announcement would be in keeping with Axion's business plan. The Bat-OEM might issue a clarifying PR flier that gave a nod to a new electrode, maybe mention Axion, but it would be to everyone's advantage to leave the impression it was their idea.
    5 Jul 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    If that's true, and the argument makes sense to me, then long-holders of Axion have a problem. Without recognition of the growth based on sales, what gets the broader investing public interested?
    5 Jul 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >obieephyhm ... I don't think there it is important to get the general public's attention. What I think is important is to attract the attention of the professionals. The scenario I laid out would do just that. The public will become aware after the pros. We, here, are ahead of the crowd & freaks within the public investor class.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    My blog has drawn a lot of eyes over the last five years and I continue to believe there are five to ten potential investors watching from the sidelines for every Axionista that's worked up the courage to hit the buy button and stuff shares into the sock drawer. My best guess is that progress at Axion will draw the watcher's attention long before it draws professional attention. The professionals want to come in and buy the stock away from retail after it gets up into the $5+ range.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I wasn't thinking about the institutional rules type professional but of the boutique speculative pro. Personally, I don't see how Axion gets to the $5+ range anytime in the next 2 years. Hope I'm wrong there but I'd be happy with a whole lot less.
    5 Jul 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    DRich, No 5 USD in the next couple years. Just tore my last dream away! Jeeze.

     

    Acually, I'll settle for not having to lick dog feces from the boots of some back alley Wall Street wanna' be for expansion after the first clear path to a nice market. I'm with 48, Enough "Fire and Rain" for me.
    5 Jul 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I'd be happy to listen, using the information we have with no rainbows & lollipops, to any roadmap & milestone scenario that gets us to $5+. I mean, anything is possible by judging from the past nothing goes quickly and I don't expect that to change.

     

    My wait for "Customer No. 1" is still technically on because, even as ePower Engine Systems has a commercial product and made a repeat purchase, there is actually no commercially sold product in the market that is using Axion's PbC. I'll give them the silver loving cup merely because I'm tired of waiting. I suffer from steady state fatigue.

     

    Limited supply of available shares would be the biggest catalyst to higher price if something big happens. I don't think the Axionista community will stand firm with their holdings when the stock goes into the $1-2 range. To much grousing going on to believe that.
    5 Jul 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure one way or the other. In my earlier experiences with ugly market dynamics the old line holders were really grumpy until the price started to move and then attitudes began to change very quickly and holders who thought themselves incredibly overweight decided they were really underweight and started to add to their positions. Things got really crazy when shares that weren't eligible for margin accounts became eligible.

     

    My biggest handicap at this point is an experience base that's limited to much smaller market dislocations. If you think in terms of a primate analogy, I can tell you a lot about squirrel monkey behavior but don't know how well that experience translates to gorillas.
    5 Jul 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I'll address your information available w/out lollipops & rainbows (very difficult for me. BTW) when I'm done making hay and have worked up the courage.

     

    If NS is your anchor, I'll offer up just a little bit of public information and string the pearls for you. I don't think I'm reading anything into anything here. FACTS: Consider that there are only four class I railroads in the US. Every single one of them is involved in their own R&D in locomotives that emit less stuff. The BN is privately held by Warren Buffett. Talk about patient money. Since 1964, Southern Railway has been the innovator in class I railroads. Since the late '70s, N&W has been the railroad with the most stubborn endurance. NS is SRS & N&W. NS is taking the electric locomotive very very seriously. NS is happy with the battery. They are happy with the battery. So far, they like the battery. The battery is not the holdup. Time is the holdup. They will (moving into the conjectural here) make the second order in late November. They are doing more testing because it suits their purpose. They are gaining knowledge.

     

    I like to face the sunlight when I can. I believe in wine, women, & song. I love lollipops. That said, I am (was) a financial analyst. I love math & physics. NS sent me to engineering school at GT. I have bought fewer than five lottery ticket in my life. It's fun.

     

    But I do not invest a single nickel over $500 in anything I don't have reason to believe is solid. I've been wrong, but I've also been right. I retired early because I was right often enuff. I am a cheap SOB. I don't believe in anything I cannot see, taste, touch, smell, or hear. Nothing violates this rule. When it comes to my wallet, I'm not a very nice person. SWMBO says that often extends to other things.

     

    I bought Axion because I know NS considers it the gold standard. Period. There is not, to the best of my knowledge, a greater bunch of hard cases than they. The are the crankiest group of analysts not named the FAA. Somebody at NS invited the public into the knowledge of our NS999 amid bugles and fanfare. It didn't work. Is that guy still there? He may have retired. Dunno. Do know that publicity to NS stuff can be deadly. Kinda like lawyers. You don't know the answer to that question???? Don't ask the bleeping question.

     

    The next demonstration of NS999 will be kept quiet. Answers will be known before hand. But I have every reason to believe all questions will be answered and the fix implemented and on the tracks inside of three years. I am taking it to the bank.

     

    All that said, I still think e-Power is our guy. He will be our first guy to put money in the till. My ten smackers is still waiting for a taker. Yew innerestid?

     

    None of this will happen quickly. But it will happen. And FWIW, I'm with JP on this part:

     

    This thing goes to $2 ? There is no chance in hell it leaves my clutches. $5 ????? (when we start to move we'll get there quickly. another ten spot on this, but just for you ) Professionals will have to take out a contract on me to get even a whiff of a share. I'm all set to tell everybody what a genius I am. No selling.

     

    Of course, I may not be a genius. Hard to imagine, but . . . . . .

     

    I now return you to my soft cuddly romantic self.
    6 Jul 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    I'd quite like to know whether Axion ever respond to anyone's questions, comments etc.

     

    I've posed questions via http://bit.ly/16NJYvi on a few occasions, but never even had an acknowledgement. I've heard that writing to The Board is no better.

     

    Has anyone ever heard anything back in response to the contact form, an email, a letter, or a phone call? [Ignoring that infamous screwed-up CC a year or so ago, not that they contacted me then but they did contact others.]

     

    Anyone who feels inclined to respond "yes" could perhaps indicate what type of questions / comments they managed to get a response to, and/or why they perhaps get a response and I don't (an insignificant holder). And please also say if you didn't hear back.

     

    And having written this, god knows why I just bought a few more.
    3 Jul 2013, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    DaveT, I have had regular correspondence with Vani, and met with Vani, Tom, and Bob a few weeks ago.
    3 Jul 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Correction to my post: I met with Phil Baker, COO, not Bob. Sorry.
    3 Jul 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Hello Rick,

     

    Since your have been in regular contact and have recently met with the Axion team would it be safe for me to assume that you are still comfortable with your investment in AXPW or ??

     

    RBrun357
    AKA: Richard
    3 Jul 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rick, I guess they are better at talking to people they "know" than us small-fry (doesn't look like I'm going to get a statistically significant sample here though!)
    4 Jul 2013, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    re: the .10 trigger discussed above

     

    IMO, Maxim investors have no interest or reason to force a bankruptcy or take over of a new / somewhere between late stage R&D to early commercial stage battery that they have no clue about.
    I am not saying the stock price does not fluctuate lower, but I doubt it breaking .10 now unless AXPW was doomed anyway. If Maxim did short the stock against new shares to maximize profit, then all they have to do to support it is to cover the shorts. I doubt axionistas dump at .10 or less & Maxim surely won't. So to me, this may justify the support at .15 +/-. Otherwise it would not have taken much more selling to force it to .10-12 but that would be too close for comfort.
    I would think the board and mgt. was advised of the risks and should have had a plan in place for a "worst case scenario". And news before the Sept. disbursement to offset and support the price.

     

    If it broke .10 and considered a failure, Maxim would be out legal fees and have to take over the company and liquidate it. I don't see this option in their best interest.
    The only real question along this topic is that BMW, NSC, GM, Asian manufacturer, or even Rosewater could have threw AXPW a bone with $9 million cash infusion and chose not to. Any one of them or a combined effort to save the company could be done out of petty cash if they planned to or wanted to use the tech.

     

    If I were a gambler again on AXPW, I would wager that it does not break .10. It may change the business plan and force a partner to own half the company...but not an all out bankruptcy and if the tech is as good as we think it would only take pennies from any major company to get rid of Maxim.
    3 Jul 2013, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1654sNG?

     

    more inconvenient (and unwelcome) truths...
    3 Jul 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    One of the best articles on the subject I have seen.
    3 Jul 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    It was stunningly well written and I couldn't find a word to disagree with.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    48, thanks. I just read the article and had to thank you.
    3 Jul 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1635) | Send Message
     
    All,

     

    I don't know if its just me, but I couldn't help but notice that Axion had, according to Google Finance, 80 employees as of Q1 2013, compared to 90 for the prior quarter.

     

    Could it be that some employees are deserting, or being made redundant, or fired? I am speculating here, but losing 10 people out of 90 for a late stage R&D company seems odd to me...
    3 Jul 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: Maybe due to the automation of the carbon-sheet process? JP has mentioned frequently that ~80% of the labor has been stripped out of the process, IIRC his estimate correctly.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Why is that odd in light of the automated carbon sheeting process?
    3 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1635) | Send Message
     
    Good point HTL, forgot about that...:)
    3 Jul 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    From the press release:

     

    Granville added that, "Now a crew of two, running the new manufacturing line, can produce 300 percent more finished carbon sheet product than could a crew of 10 operating the previous manual process, and can do so with less waste and improved quality. Additionally, the new process has resulted in a modest gain in carbon sheet 'energy capacity' due in part to better homogeneity throughout the manufactured sheet."

     

    http://bit.ly/17ISIUp
    3 Jul 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    <*sigh*>
    9:34 to now, 10 consecutive steps down on the ask as ATDF (most aggressive), CDEL(also), BTIG and now ARCA want to push shares into the market.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of the activity someone is still buying. Hundreds of thousands of shares are being bought every day. I agree that this low price stinks but someone is interested in Axion. I wonder who??
    3 Jul 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    AinB, we've been wondering the same thing for eons. Earlier this year in the mid 30's for example. Much was made of a large block that traded up there, too, as though there wasn't also a seller! We even got some new posters here saying they bought a lot.

     

    In retrospect, boy were those purchases downright awful. Down over 50% in less than 1/2 a year. But I suppose you could say for those in the top tax bracket, assuming they have and/or will have ST Cap gains to offset, they're only down over 30%.
    3 Jul 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1041) | Send Message
     
    Why do I read the comments? Aargh.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1042) | Send Message
     
    Was the crew of 10 was working full-time on PbC production? If not, the reduction in employment could include other factors as well.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Wayne, Not the hot time for flooded build IMO. I think this inventory is already built and there is a lull before the peak build for the winter season. Just some other possibilities.
    3 Jul 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Pztrick44
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    OT

     

    Ford Develops Advanced Technology to Revolutionize Prototyping, Personalization, Low-Volume Production
    http://bloom.bg/12m2K9x

     

    "Once fully developed, the technology will allow for lower costs and ultrafast delivery times for prototypes – within three business days versus conventional methods that take anywhere from two to six months."
    3 Jul 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    I can have my body laser measured and an iron man suit made in time to fight the NBUs on Monday.
    3 Jul 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1042) | Send Message
     
    >apmarshall62: --- "...the trading losses that have been incurred in the month of June were on the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars, not millions."
    .........................

     

    When I look at the market cap on June 1 of approx. $31.5M, and today's market cap of approx. $17.5, it looks like the difference is in the $14M range. So it doesn't look like you're using market cap as a metric. I'm curious how you define trading losses, and how you came to a hundreds of thousands number. --- Thanks.
    3 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    WIO: The numbers HTL provided me are below. My calculation was based on actual shares traded. Also, this doesn't include any of the double counting that JP refers to. Additionally, an entity that is trying to drive the share price down doesn't have to account for 100% of the trading activity in a stock.

     

    May Close $0.2720
    June Tot Shares Traded 9,923,530
    May Cls PPS x Jun Shares $2,699,200.16

     

    June VWAP 0.2055
    Jun VWAP x Jun Shares $2,039,605.84

     

    Value Loss w/Jun VWAP $659,594.32

     

    Value Loss w/Jun 26 VWAP $1,092,478.89
    3 Jul 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano1401
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    I have been concerned why the Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium, ALABC, was not using Axion for their lead-carbon hybrid car initiative. I contacted them and I received an email response as follows:

     

    "Thank you very much for your interest to this project of the ALABC. The project is still ongoing so I can't give you details about it - this will be possible after the project is completed. I can say, however, that we have a bigger choice of batteries available for it than you are mentioning, and that the PbC product is not among the considered ones at this stage.

     

    For more information you can contact my colleague responsible for our public affairs and marketing, Mr. Chip Bremer. My assumption is that the product will be completed by the end of October."

     

    Dr. Boris Monahov
    Program Manager
    Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium
    1822 E NC Highway 54, Suite 120
    Durham, NC 27713
    U.S.A.

     

    The reply does not explain why Axion is not being considered, but Axion is a member of the organization and the ALABC program team is well aware of the PbC battery. I am afraid the answer, without giving explanation, is not encouraging to me. Do others have a different take on this? I will be contacting the PR guy he mentioned for follow-up.

     

    Edit - just was told Mr. Bremer is out of the office until next week.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    I suspect (and actually hope) that Axion is avoiding the "collective effort" aspect which I see lurking here. Axion is doubtless unwilling to freely share its technology, so it is a poor fit for such projects (and for the group as a whole, grand title notwithstanding).
    3 Jul 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Ricknplano1401
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Could be that the supplier has to pay part of the development cost for the PR of being the battery used, and that Axion did not pony up for the privilege. Just guessing at this point. But that could be a reason for choosing a battery that may not be the best technical choice since the whole thing is a PR play anyway. Still, I would like to see a PbC under the hood.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (879) | Send Message
     
    You should write them back and wish them success.
    They will need it, trying to get first rate results from second rate batteries.
    3 Jul 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Rick: Like TP, I wouldn't want to have Axion participate and have to share all the IP they developed at their own expense with all comers.

     

    If the "come to Jesus" moment arrives where the PbC gets widespread adoption, the various members of that consortium will have the opportunity to use the Axion technology, if they desire, after appropriately negotiated commercial considerations have been provided.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I spoke with Alan Cooper of the ALABC at the Geneva Motor Show last year when the LC Superhybrid was unveiled. He was miffed that Axion rebuffed the ALABC's request to use the PbC in that demonstration vehicle because it had bigger fish to fry.

     

    The LC Superhybrid is all about promoting the CPT electric supercharger and starter generator to the auto industry. If the project hadn't been contracted before CPT sold the supercharger to Valeo for €25 million in late 2011, the project wouldn't have seen the light of day.

     

    The batteries are an afterthought and while there are always references to "lead-carbon," you have to dig with determination to find out that the batteries were made by Exide.

     

    Companies do demonstration vehicles to showcase technologies when they can't get the auto industry to pay attention through normal procurement channels. Since Axion has not had that problem there's no benefit in joining the losers club.
    3 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    "I spoke with Alan Cooper of the ALABC at the Geneva Motor Show last year when the LC Superhybrid was unveiled. He was miffed that Axion rebuffed the ALABC's request to use the PbC in that demonstration vehicle because it had bigger fish to fry."

     

    So is "miffing" something as big as ALABC worth one or two batteries ?

     

    IMO, it was a mistake. Now ALABC really is not including AXPW, and possibly even working against them. Goodwill can do wonders and we don't have any. Even if it was all about the supercharger, is the 'bad will" worth it ?
    We don't seem to gain many friends in the industry, but are very adept at making enemies and straining relationships.
    4 Jul 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    ABSOLUTELY!

     

    A project like the LC Superhybrid is far more than two batteries. It's months of engineering work and hundreds of thousands of dollars in absorbed costs that would have been spent in 2011 when Axion had limited cash and needed to choose between investing your money in customer projects or wasting your money on PR hype.

     

    Companies build demonstrator vehicles when they can't get traction for their products through conventional channels. The ALABC has been touting a modified Honda Insight powered by the Ultrabattery since 2008. I've seen nothing that suggests OEMs are planning to use the Ultrabattery in that application.
    4 Jul 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    Exide and Axion are both trading $0.15 + - .

     

    Aside from my annoyance of blistering losses in XIDE(Q) I have no emotion I can't lay aside for the moment.

     

    One company collapsing from legacy issues and mismanagement and another with revolutionary issues and spiffy technology management to take its place.

     

    "and when I die
    and when I'm dead
    dead and gone
    there'll be one child born
    in our world to carry on,
    to carry on. "

     

    And to think that the big number in red ink I lost in Exide will be replaced 39X with green ink with Axion.

     

    And they both carry an "x" in position two of their name.

     

    I'm getting misty just thinking about it.

     

    Misty over my new boat also. :>)

     

    Happy 4th everybody !
    3 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Have a great holiday Valleywood and all other Axionistas, including Axionistas who live in countries where the 4th is just another day.
    3 Jul 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    anyone who can quote lyrics from bs&t gets my admiration!
    3 Jul 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Mr John: Muchas gracias.

     

    Have a great day in USA.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    3 Jul 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Just my rank speculation but Maybe on some level Axion is a bit ostracized because they won't "play nice" with some of the bigger players...a little too fiercely independent for some who might think they should be more accommodating to their "betters" ---after all they wouldn't knuckle under to exide and have stubbornly managed to continue to go their own way despite a long, sometimes friendless road. (EP not withstanding) Not saying any bridges are burned of course, but perhaps the well is still a bit poisoned against them. After all, in just about any comfy club, seldom do the established members love the pugnacious upstart. Axion is going to have to do it the hard way. And as we know, they are. Again, I have no idea if any elements of this dynamic are actually what's going on, just a place my thoughts ran to...
    3 Jul 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    If you were a legacy lead-acid battery leader and you knew your technology wouldn't withstand 250 deep discharge cycles and that charging faster than a 10-hour rate destroyed your product, how would you feel about the new kid on the block who delivers 2,500 deep discharge cycles and can recharge in one hour or less. Hell, I'd be telling everybody how the new kid is violating the too good to be true rule.
    3 Jul 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of fast charging: witness Altair Nanotechnologies.

     

    It developed lithium titanate chemistry that can be charged/discharged in less then 10 minutes.

     

    Now it is saying Bye Bye to its Reno, NV Manufacturing Facility. After years of quarter after quarter losses, it sold its manufacturing facility and is moving equipment and materials to China:

     

    "The problem is that this kind of battery is one of the most expensive to manufacture and has low energy density (making it better suited for storage energy systems). All other factors seems to be outstanding, with life of thousands of quick charge cycles."
    http://bit.ly/12acDWZ

     

    Sound familiar?
    Bio-carbon of course is heavier, but also cheaper!
    Damn we need that NS 999 right now. . .
    3 Jul 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately Altair was fighting for emerging niche markets in the EV sector where other technologies better matched the customer's needs and the poor performance profile for the target market coupled with a cost that was 200% to 300% higher made for a very tough dynamic.

     

    For better or worse the PbC is being targeted at markets where there are no competing technologies that can do the required work at anything approaching the PbC's cost. Enhanced flooded and AGM will barely do the job for simple stop-start. They don't stand a chance for second generation stop-start where the alternatives will either be PbC or a much more expensive combination of lead-acid and lithium.
    3 Jul 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Mr. John:
    I have a question for You:

     

    Do You see a possibility of merger between EXIDE And AXION POWER?

     

    Have a nice day tomorrow.-Carlos
    3 Jul 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Exide and Axion would be a particularly good fit. Exide has a couple AGM battery plants that could be useful for PbC production, but the huge bulk of its capacity makes low margin flooded batteries.

     

    The plan we developed for Axion stayed away from the business of making batteries at locations other than New Castle and focused instead on selling electrodes to the battery industry. We wanted to be the best in the world at doing one thing, making the heart and soul of the PbC while we left the heavy lifting of battery manufacturing to others who already had battery plants, distribution infrastructure and customer service capabilities in place.

     

    Manufacturing and selling one product (electrode assemblies) to a small number of potential customers is both easier and far less capital intensive than trying to manufacture and distribute $3 billion of batteries per year to thousands of customers and resellers.

     

    While I have a high level of confidence in the team's ability to make money in the electrode assembly business, they have nowhere near the skill set required for heavy manufacturing of commodity products.
    3 Jul 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    carlos, I think a merger of Exide and Axion would be a disaster. Exide needs significant capital to get out of its hole, and its market and expertise is mass market batteries. Axion also needs capital, and is focusing on high margin, specialty products, and particularly components.

     

    Axion might be approached by a deep-pocketed battery producer, but that sure isn't Exide.
    4 Jul 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4204) | Send Message
     
    48' ... Visceral resistance to size of price premium over conventional FLA, VRLA has crossed mind since info on ePower consideration and initial use of the PbC has surfaced on APCs. That and Axion NDA practices.
    3 Jul 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    No Axion.

     

    15th Asian Battery Conference

     

    Program

     

    http://bit.ly/12HtvbY
    3 Jul 2013, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Good morning

     

    JP quote

     

    "The plan we developed for Axion stayed away from the business of making batteries at locations other than New Castle and focused instead on selling electrodes to the battery industry. We wanted to be the best in the world at doing one thing, making the heart and soul of the PbC while we left the heavy lifting of battery manufacturing to others"

     

    Excellent strategy!

     

    I assume, and hope, management and the Board still hold to it. I see no reason to change - rather benchmarks achieved only support this strategy

     

    I wonder at times how the battery industry see AXPW. Almost as though there is a hate on for AXPW

     

    Happy July 4 everyone - from Canada where we think you are wonderful neighbors
    4 Jul 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1041) | Send Message
     
    To you too. We missed Canada day here a few days ago. Now you guys just need to drop the Commonwealth unless they give you Pippa. ;)
    4 Jul 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (879) | Send Message
     
    "I wonder at times how the battery industry see AXPW. Almost as though there is a hate on for AXPW" - dimca

     

    "... how would you feel about the new kid on the block who delivers 2,500 deep discharge cycles and can recharge in one hour or less. Hell, I'd be telling everybody how the new kid is violating the too good to be true rule." - JP
    4 Jul 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4204) | Send Message
     
    Excellent strategy if there is already a clear market for the PbC battery. Otherwise, one has a manufacturer of a new battery component hawking its new device to established firms selling large volumes of product in repeat business. AND, existing customers of those large battery manufacturers can't easily use batteries containing the new component.

     

    That the PbC is not a drop in replacement for an AGM is a point made repeatedly in APC discussion. Axion needed to work with a larger number and more diverse group of system integrators than just BMW and NSC.
    4 Jul 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Now that the EV buzz is dieing down it's time to get some work done.

     

    (Interruption- All hail St. Elon)

     

    Stop-Start Engines Lead to Big Gains in Auto Efficiency

     

    "One such technology is the ‘stop-start’, or ‘micro-hybrid’, car. These vehicles still run almost exclusively on gas, but will be one of the most important catalysts for fuel efficiency in the next decade. Stop-start technology is simple: when your car pulls up to a red light or stops dead in brutal rush-hour traffic, the engine will simply shut off. An auxiliary battery..."

     

    http://thebea.st/12opNR8
    4 Jul 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Message in a bottle to Maya. Please come back. My English is fading quic.....

     

    :)
    4 Jul 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    A123 from earlier this year. Gives target pricing.

     

    Micro-hybrid Energy Storage: One or Two Battery Solution?

     

    " Dr. Menahem Anderman, AAB President, argued that a system’s incremental cost premium for advanced micro-hybrid solutions must be less than 200€/$270US in order to challenge the position of existing solutions. Lithium ion batteries are on track to meet this target within the coming years."

     

    http://bit.ly/14QLZW4
    4 Jul 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    What the hell does "on track to meet this target within the coming years" mean?
    4 Jul 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    It means on time to meet the mass adoption of gen.2 Start/Stop. Just like JCI plans to have theirs ready in 2015, although at a much higher price which I think they stated with the BMW test car was $1200.
    4 Jul 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    :( , First off.

     

    The unit cost. I read it as on top of the current cost of SS technology.

     

    John, I share your frustration. A huge failure in the lithium ion space that was abandoned by the US is going to find its way in China as the low cost provider of a technology that can't compete in the area presented in the article. They already have competition that has spent far more than B456 er A123 and they are going to lead the market?

     

    I posted it for the $ target. It's an important data point for me to think about.

     

    Sorry. I didn't intend to raise your beats per minute nor did I intend to shorten your life by even a micro second. I've already pulled far too much hair out over reading such nonsense.
    4 Jul 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    LT, Axion could well meet this timing as well. Remember in automotive, I expected pretty broad scale roll out in the 2016 MY which is 2015 CY.

     

    Broad scale adoption is heaven for Axionista's. Will it happen? The last raise says it's a long shot. My perspective on the technology is that it shouldn't be. But alas it is. It's a to die for technology. That means it will find its way, but perhaps in a time that does not reward some of the investor that thought so alomg the way.
    4 Jul 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    Iinde, no arguments from me, You can go back 3 years and find where I posted article after article with that '15-16 time frame. I should have acted on it then.
    If the tech is as good as they say, and we think it is, then being unable to manufacture it in high volumes is the problem that has held them back.
    If that is solved, they will find some business. Competitors will find some too. I can't figure when or how much AXPW will actually get.

     

    48 posted above the odds of 1/5 positives happening soon, and I agree with him, and you have stated how important the mfg. partner is to AXPW future. I will add that AXPW has to find a way to fund operations other than stock issue for this buildout, and not just $10 million. They have to have a cash infusion that is significant to give them resources to build mfg capacity and do more marketing and demo projects to get the battery in the field like ePower. It needs to be simultaneous across many fields too.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    07/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied fron instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 285923, AvTrSz: 6808
    Min. Pr: 0.1501, Max Pr: 0.1674, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1526
    # Buys, Shares: 13 76262, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1534
    # Sells, Shares: 28 205661, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1523
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 4000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1525
    Buy:Sell 1:2.70 (26.7% “buys”), DlyShts 26025 (9.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.65%

     

    Important to remember that today was a half-day and not only will volume be low but behavior may not be indicative of longer-term trends. We just don't know. I do know many of us have concerns with what behavior may be like Friday, 7/5.

     

    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/01: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1914, in 40 days: $0.1627
    07/02: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1875, in 40 days: $0.1593
    07/03: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1833, in 40 days: $0.1558
    07/04: holiday

     

    Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445, 324, 286, holiday.

     

    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: 39.9%, 2.5%, -8.9%, -4.7%, -2.5%, -2.8%
    5-day change: 73.7%, 86.7%, 15.8%, 168.1%, 24.6%, -58.5%
    5-day rate of change change: 51.0%, 163.7%, 234.4%, 37.4%, 104.1%, -13.6%

     

    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: 23.9%, -8.1%, -32.9%, -46.1%, -23.0%, -70.0%
    5-day change: 33.5%, 17.5%, 6.0%, 2.8%, 0.7%,-1.8%
    5-day rate of change change: 33.8%, 23.5%, 22.3%, 14.1%, 14.7%, 9.0%

     

    Daily short sales being low reflects the fact that ATDF was top of the ask stack 9 of the 14 peeks I got at changes in the ask. They were in second place another three times. Add in the usual suspects, NITE, CDEL and BTIG, took top spot 3 more times and we can see that selling pressure was high from the usual places. ARCA occupied the top spot 2 times only today. Given that, the buy:sell ratio is what we would expect as folks from these MMs likely traded around the ask and went an hit the bids.

     

    Early in the day I posted a comment noting that we had 10 consecutive steps down in the ask from 9:34 through 10:39. What I didn't mention was that the bid held steady during this period at $0.1511 – our buyers know the sellers so well now.

     

    From 11:13 forward, the bids moved predominately up (4 of 6 and one unchanged) and the asks had 2 down and 1 up.

     

    Given a short day and a holiday punctuated week, I don't see much more of value to consider.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    our buyers know the sellers so well now.

     

    and it could be said that for quite some time the sellers know the buyers even better.

     

    IMO, buyers have been played like a fiddle by backing off till bids have volume and then hitting them. I had mentioned this to you even before the last run to .35. I think it's still in play too. Until the sellers are gone or find the low point they are willing too sell.
    5 Jul 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    LT: Yes. But if the sellers back off, the general trend should be higher, no? Unless the goal is to push price down, which I suspect it is now.

     

    There's nothing new about either of our scenarios - it's just who's in control ATM. Almost always the MMs.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jul 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1042) | Send Message
     
    LT Quote:

     

    "48 posted above the odds of 1/5 positives happening soon ......... I will add that AXPW has to find a way to fund operations other than stock issue"
    .........................

     

    Just waded through a lot of discussion here (thanks to all). So much of it unfortunately revolved around how various entities may try to take advantage of the vulnerabilities resulting from the latest deleterious financing arrangement. [quick rant: it still rankles me that top management gave themselves bonuses at the time they were negotiating that deal].

     

    A bottom line question for me: "What will it take to fundamentally change the whole financing dynamic?" Perhaps 1 out of 5 positives happening? 2 of 5? A BMW announcement of some sort, making the rest of the five no longer significant? I realize there are no clear answers, but I would like to think one of five would at a minimum create a floor on the stock price. --- Thanks.
    5 Jul 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    FWIW the first decision point should be next week. Axion has a 50/50 shot at the SBIR Phase II Award and the DOE's Funding Opportunity Announcement says award notifications will be made in early-July.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/10KaJ2C
    5 Jul 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    The board gave management bonuses. The same board that put up more money for the company. That's a better sign than the stock price.
    5 Jul 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1042) | Send Message
     
    With 8% interest on that money, with provisions to have that increase to 18% if some kind of "worst case scenario" unfolds. I would love to be corrected on this if I'm wrong.
    5 Jul 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    With my post I was just trying to capture the fact that while we're right now in something of a good-news dryspell, the season just ahead would sure seem to look a lot more fertile. And likely coming soonest, I think the SBIR could really set the tone.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    GM needs to bring the cost of their mild hybrid solution down. They are in trouble with this solution IMO.

     

    June green-car sales jump 35% over 2012 numbers

     

    http://aol.it/127jvFN
    5 Jul 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    No info. on battery type.

     

    Smoky fire at The Landing prompts evacuations; batteries for wind-power system in flames

     

    http://bit.ly/1cZfGqR
    5 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Their story on the battery type was in 2011 – lithium, of course.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bcmKm1
    5 Jul 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    Wikipedia says the batteries are Lithium iron phosphate, the ultra safe stuff.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bcn6cb
    5 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for running that down. I was looking but hadn't had much luck.

     

    So much for all the money they saved.

     

    I do wonder what kind of impact installing these systems has on insurance rates and if the insurance companies are able to differentiate technology types in their actuary tables.
    5 Jul 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    Knock on wood, but the trading volume so far is very light, as you would expect in the middle of a four day weekend. Maybe the Maxim investors are satisfied having the price at $.15......
    5 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5083) | Send Message
     
    apm, it appears for now they are letting .15 hold. I think we had only one day with what HTL calls an "overshoot" down to .14
    5 Jul 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    William C. Gotts Named Chief Executive Officer of RoseWater Energy Group

     

    http://bit.ly/12LslYu

     

    "Gotts has worked with a broad range of clients in the energy storage sector such as the U.S. Department of Defense, Norfolk Southern Railways, BMW, General Motors, and Viridity Energy/PJM."
    5 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    Evidently he jumped ship from Axion. Here's part of his LinkedIn profile:

     

    Business Development Consultant
    Axion Power International
    July 2008 – Present (5 years 1 month)
    Business Development Executive (New Castle, PA)

     

    Grow revenue by creating and managing new business-to-business relationships, developing new products, reporting on revenue and forecasts, and generating marketing and sales strategies and deliverables.

     

    • Develop and own business-to-business relationships with U.S. and European client accounts
    • Drive the creation of marketing material for new and existing products
    • Establish budget and monitor costs associated with product development
    • Cultivate competitor awareness to create and leverage marketplace advantages

     

    Key Achievements
    • Doubled overall revenue within first year
    • Reduced material and logistics costs by 30% within first 18 months
    • Acted as one of the project owners and team leads on large-scale utility grid-based energy storage system integrated within PJM
    • Penetrated a new market by generating a high-profile sale with a Military Zero Energy Building & LEED
    • Developed strong internal relationships at all levels of the organization, including the CEO and Board of Directors
    President &

     

    The obvious question is why he left.
    5 Jul 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... Why he left? Left what? He was a consultant, a temp, a contractor. He "left" when offered a steady job. I'd do the same thing.
    5 Jul 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    DRich, not so sure about that. He was at Axion for 5 years, mentions all of the companies that Axion is courting, but fails to mention Axion.

     

    He also appears to take a lot of credit for stuff:

     

    Key Achievements
    • Doubled overall revenue within first year
    • Reduced material and logistics costs by 30% within first 18 months
    • Acted as one of the project owners and team leads on large-scale utility grid-based energy storage system integrated within PJM
    • Penetrated a new market by generating a high-profile sale with a Military Zero Energy Building & LEED
    • Developed strong internal relationships at all levels of the organization, including the CEO and Board of Directors
    5 Jul 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I direct you and others to Mario, if you would like to know more. We just emailed back and forth.
    5 Jul 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30232) | Send Message
     
    FWIW I've never heard the name and did not know that a William C. Gotts even existed until WTB posted the link.
    5 Jul 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4673) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... Maybe he worked for Axion under an NDA.

     

    >Mr Investor ... If you have something to add ... then add.
    5 Jul 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    John, Since I've searched the LinkedIn area for some time I was aware of his time spent in the sales organization. There was also an older article about Axion with a picture of him with the sales team.

     

    I was quite surprised that when Vani was brought on board there was not a larger change of faces in the sales organization.

     

    He was always depicted as a contractor. His LinkedIn profile has been changed extensively only recently.

     

    Edit: Here's the image I was referring to. It went along with an article I have no interest in searching for as it has little historic importance.

     

    http://bit.ly/15kTnv4
    5 Jul 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2145) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    I'm not surprised at the changes to his profile. Many people polish their profile and stretch things some or take individual credit for a team effort, when looking for a new job.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9574) | Send Message
     
    Understood Stilldazed.

     

    Since I've read both the before and after I can tell you his profile went from being great in the water to walking on it. Looks like he got a good position so good for him.
    5 Jul 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2800)