Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (355)
Track new comments
  • Primero?


    At any time things will change.


    14 Jul 2013, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • congrats Carlos!
    14 Jul 2013, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Today:


    Change, change & change...


    16 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Congrats Carlos!!!
    14 Jul 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • Congeniality again :-(
    14 Jul 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • "December 2013" is not That far away. Being the stated target for NS999, minimal visible activity prior to the "Go Live" date is not surprising. Once that train gets moving, it may be hard to stop.


    Having a large battery fabricator "on board" may be doubly important.
    14 Jul 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Greentongue: IIRC, John has posted some potential production capability numbers for Axion using the current permitted facilities and equipment that would easily meet any NSC demand that could be reasonably expected to materialize for quite some time.


    I forget the batteries/loco and such, but even demand for a "statistically significant" test fleet that John has surmised could be met in the time-frames envisioned.


    It would be to Axion's advantage to be the battery manufacturer for NSC, I think, for reasons of a better margin, better utilization of P & E, training purposes, ...


    14 Jul 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Axion has plenty of capacity to meet any reasonable forecast of demand from NS and ePower. The only market niche that would require major partnering at this point is automotive because even modest implementations like we witnessed with Peugeot for the Continental-Maxwell system run to a million units or more over two or three years.
    14 Jul 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • "reasonable forecast of demand" - a nice turn of phrase. :)


    Anyway, got me to thinking, without trying to reason demand, what could Axion amount to if it could sell all the batteries it could currently make?
    14 Jul 2013, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • There are way too many variables to pin down anything beyond a ballpark number, but the permitted capacity is 3,000 batteries a day, or 750,000 batteries in a 250 work day year. With a basic price in the $60 range for a flooded battery, the baseline revenue potential of the battery plant is on the order of $45 million.


    Things get a lot more complicated when you try to figure PbC impacts. Axion has three lines but only one of them can make PbC batteries. With it's current electrode fabrication hardware it can probably make electrode assemblies for 75,000 batteries a year. If you figure that a PbC will sell at a $200 premium to flooded, the PbC increment on 75,000 batteries would be another $15 million.


    Without additional hardware I'd peg the annual revenue potential of existing PP&E at about $60 million with a potential ramp into the $75 million range with a couple more electrode fabrication lines.
    14 Jul 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • JP,


    Why would Axion suddenly run its flooded LAB line to full capacity to monetize it? I thought they took the flooded LA business only to keep some revenue coming in, while training their workforce and keeping their focus on the PbC!
    14 Jul 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna: John was just answering a hypothetical from Edmund as to maximum possible revenues. I think he's not suggesting that is planned or would actually happen, at least for the present.


    14 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks HTL for clarification. Much appreciated!
    14 Jul 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Good morning all. — I’ve been playing with a few numbers in my head this morning, and thought I’d toss out a few. For the past year, the market cap has been hovering around $30M, plus or minus, and we’re now at about half that. This would seem to indicate the current pps and market cap has already priced in a share dilution of as much as 100% [which seems too high to me], and we’ve already experienced most of fallout from the recent financing. Make sense?
    14 Jul 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • If you take a look at the Enterprise Value, Share Count and 200-day Volume graph you'll see that the market cap depression is even worse than you imagine.


    To calculate enterprise value, I arbitrarily assumed it would take 67 million shares to clear the debt as opposed to the 38 million shares that would be issued at the basic conversion price of $.264.


    Based on those assumptions Axion's current enterprise value is $25.8 million with 180 million shares outstanding. The only other time the enterprise value has been that low was immediately PRIOR to the February 2012 capital raise.


    As strange as it seems, Axion's enterprise value with $9 million of fresh offering proceeds is $3 million less than it was without the new money.
    14 Jul 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... So my friend wasn't wrong? If Axion just continues performing like it has been it won't fail ... it will just evaporate. Brings a new slant to your mud drying analogy.
    14 Jul 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. — Your description makes Axion look an awful lot like the epitome of a coiled market. Here’s a definition from Investopedia:


    Definition of 'Coiled Market'
    A market that is believed to have the potential to make a strong move in one direction after being pushed in the opposite direction. The idea is that if a market should be headed in one direction based on its fundamentals but is pushed in the other direction, it will eventually make a strong move in the original fundamental direction. This coiled move will often be more substantial than what might have been the case if it had gone in the expected direction to begin with.


    Coiled markets often arise when the market has been held down artificially. This happens in commodities markets, such as gold and silver. Investors looking to capitalize on coiled markets will use both fundamental and technical analysis to identify markets or specific equities that exhibit the characteristics of a coiled market. — The origins of this term relate to the physics of a coiled spring: the more it is compressed, the greater the rebound will be.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Seems we've gotten caught up in Schumpeter's gale before we even launched. Damn battery biz is advancing so fast couldn't keep up. Must be an illusion my reading all those BMW forums with people POed about getting burned by new wonder batts.<end snark>
    14 Jul 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Thank goodness Axion didn't get the damn government grant, which seems to be the number one ingredient in the recipe for disaster.


    Not to mention, I am much happier investing in a company the government is not pounding stakes in and those who join me do so voluntarily.
    14 Jul 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Special thanks to china_s2 on one of the Yadoodle boards for this.
    This is the company that supplied the batteries for the AEP/S&C community storage project I posted on recently. This is the government project where the batteries are not holding up.


    Company closed up shop some time ago. Another government grant debacle in the lithium ion space. Lithium iron phosphate but w/ an aqueous electrolyte I was told.


    International Battery Chosen by S&C for First Community Energy Storage System

    14 Jul 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • BRUSA electric drive components now available in 750-volt versions; targeted for commercial and very high performance

    14 Jul 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • This is an enlightening form if you don't drive bimmers or read about them at any technical level. There is a poster {Max Moser} that claims to be a software engineer and technical expert for BMW that has given some info. on the issue being discussed in the forum. Gives his opinion on the push to start system and why is is causing more grief than it is worth. I tend to agree having spent much time on poka yoke in industry. If it can happen it will. Might explain why some are having extra difficulties with their LAB's and SS.


    Part of one of his comments toward the end of the page.


    "Well I'm not sure how that might have happened. Is it possible that you might have hit the MSA on/off button by mistake instead of the start/stop button? I know I've done that myself when I wasn't really paying attention and just reached up and pressed the button. That would still give you the impression that the car was off when it really wasn't.


    These start/stop buttons are really a useless novelty. I'm not sure why all the manufacturers thought it was such a great idea, convenience factor I guess. In reality they've turned out to be more trouble than they're worth and very costly to repair with the electronic steering column lock mechanism. Most people (including most dealer employees) aren't even aware that you're supposed to press the start/stop button twice on the keyless ignition cars to shut them down so their battery ends up getting low on charge or failing prematurely. If you only press it once, even if you lock the car, it takes twice as long for all the computers to enter sleep mode and will use more battery power than normal. It's a whole lot of trouble and confusion for a very small conveinence. Not worth it in my opinion, although I admit I'll still order comfort access on my next car."

    14 Jul 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Is this BMW's new electric car: if so, it's sharp.

    14 Jul 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • "More pointedly, the i3 and i8 both use expensive li-ion batteries, which over time decrease in their ability to hold a charge and are expensive to replace."
    15 Jul 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • With Tesla's stunning success, I expect the other OEM's to move a car like this from concept to production.


    The sleeper part is Tesla's partners Daimler & Toyota have a good chance of leveraging this to save $millions/billions to design their own by licensing Tesla design or even better to buy components from Tesla giving them a shorter time to mkt. and giving Tesla guaranteed income stream.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • What if the i8 was a series hybrid electric using PbC and a micro turbine generator?
    15 Jul 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • A couple years ago I met with the president of Capstone Turbine for breakfast in Zurich and he explained that the big problem of micro-turbines in transport applications is that very few vehicles have a useful life that measures up to the design life of the turbine, which makes the economics very challenging.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • I have yet to see a product that cannot be made to fail. I'm sure if the motivation was there, a turbine could be made that only lasted 5 years.


    The advantage of flexible fuel and rather small size should allow automotive usage. I would think the main concern would be manufacturing infrastructure changes needed. This time of "the transition to electric" seems like the best for their introduction.
    15 Jul 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Greentongue: Long ago (CPST) had said they were involved with some major auto makers investigating this. They said that the cost, with a lifetime of 40K-80K hours, was too high and the auto folks wanted a unit designed for 8K hours, with a cost to match.


    It never went anywhere, for various reasons IMO.


    Langford Engineering had conversted a Ford product that got 80MPG on diesel. Never went anywhere. Capstone and some outfit did a super-sporty CMT-380, never went anywhere.


    Writghtspeedd did some neat stuff, never went anywhere, except into class 3-7 delivery truck conversions that Wrightspeed is doing now as a startup with government incentives support.


    Jaguar was doing one with another outfit's MT, never went anywhere.


    The picture is clear.


    Langford's and Wrightspeed's, IMO, are the best implementations to-date because they involve batteries and allow the MT to be spun more or less constant speed.


    The technology is not the hurdle - the proper application, via a series hybrid most likely, and cost for the benefit is. Auto makers don't want to market a car that lasts 40K-80K hours either.


    15 Jul 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • LT, It's a concept car. Read fantasy.


    It's where all the engineers, marketing guys and and and get together to reach and test some future world tech in a drop dead package. Aesthetically it's Hollywood with some more than wonderful things under the skin.
    14 Jul 2013, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • Ahh the Chinese.


    Price war between Tianneng and enemy ends


    " Nomura said the price war between Tianneng Power
    (00819) and Chaowei Power (00951) appears to have come to an end with the two players
    having raised their lead acid battery product ASPs by up to 10% in the week of 8 July."
    Niche lead acid battery market. LOL


    "It expects the move to result in a more equity-friendly environment
    for several quarters at a minimum, providing a good entry point ahead of Tianneng's potential earnings rebound in 2H 2013 and on its long-term value as one of the two dominant oligopoly players in China's niche lead-acid battery market. "

    15 Jul 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tianneng only generated the equivalent of $1.3 billion US in revenue last year, so they must be a niche player ;-)
    15 Jul 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Mazda "Hill launch assist". Hadn't thought of it but without the torque provided with an automatic transmission and the engine on such as with SS, the dynamics of transitioning from braking to moving forward change. Here's how Mazda is managing the impact of SS under such conditions.

    15 Jul 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • I can already sense pre-market activity in AXPW stock as a reaction to Trego's resignation. I suspect it ain't going to be pretty today...
    15 Jul 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Amazing how things can change over a weekend, Friday Trego was out, Monday he's going to be appointed to the BOD & remain in an advisory role till a new CFO is found.


    NEW CASTLE, Pa., July 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC QB: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead -carbon PbC batteries and energy storage systems, today announced that its Chief Financial Officer Charles Trego, has resigned from the Company, effective August 2, 2013, for purely personal reasons. Mr. Trego will assist Axion Power in its current search for a replacement. In order to ease the transition and until a new CFO is hired, Mr. Trego will continue to support the Company in a consulting role pending his election to the Company's Board of Directors at the Annual Meeting which will be held this September. In addition to working on special projects at the direction of the CEO, Mr. Trego will focus on assisting the Company in its ongoing search for a replacement CFO. Mr. Trego's nomination will be further detailed in the Company's Proxy Statement on Schedule 14A which will be filed with the SEC in the next few days.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Sometimes purely personal reasons are purely personal reasons.



    Chuck has resigned as CFO, but will continue serving in a consulting role and has agreed to stand for election to the board at the next annual meeting. Those are not the actions of the disgruntled or the disappointing.


    As I noted the other day in a conversation with Rick Krementz, the "solely due to personal reasons" language in the Form 8-K was far too specific for Chuck's untimely resignation to have a deeper and more ominous meaning.
    15 Jul 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • JP,


    How long has Chuck been with Axion? Is he one of the founding partners?


    Also, as someone has dutifully pointed out (I guess it was Bang), what are the chances they can get a good CFO to move to New Castle, Pa to take on a full time position with them? I am personally relieved now to see that Chuck is not "running to the hills". Hopefully we get some good news with regards to sales soon and we should be fine
    15 Jul 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • The recent Form S-1 discloses that "Charles R. Trego joined the Company as Chief Financial Officer on April 1, 2010." So he's been there a little over three years.


    Axion has always paid a competitive salary for its CFO and while there are some financial types who like bright lights and glitter there are many others who enjoy life in a less urbanized setting. Any way you cut it, $20,000 a month goes a lot farther in New Castle than it would in New York.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Personal reasons or no, it should still be good for another 2 cent drop in share price.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • From John:


    So it might actually be personal, as the last line in the first section reads:
    "We wish Chuck and his family the very best."


    As far as I know, it is not normal to mention "the family".
    15 Jul 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • good call !
    15 Jul 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • 8:41 AM "Indulging the fantasy," writes Notable Calls as Tesla's (TSLA) price target is upped to a Street-high $230 by Northland Capital's Colin Rusch (his PT was previously $95). "Additional investment at its current facility could accommodate a run rate of as many as 500K vehicles/year." Shares +2.3% premarket. Comment! [Consumer, On the Move]
    15 Jul 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Yeah, Oh boy. They have 4 walls and a roof in a plant that at one time could build 500k units/year. LOL. You can't make this s*&t up.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • >LT & iindelco ... Yabadoodle Finance has it posted that on July 22nd the "Automaker That Can Not Be Named" will post earnings. Expectations are for ($0.16). Anyone seen better estimates?


    Get the popcorn ready.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, TD Ameritrade is close to the same number. And then there is:


    Insider Trading News for QUALCOMM, Tesla Motors, Alcoa, Sprint Nextel, American Capital Agency, and Barrick Gold


    " found company Director, Kimbal Musk, sold his shares at a price of US$117.20 on July 3."



    The TD page.

    15 Jul 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • IIRC Kimbal Musk is Elon's ex.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Brother it appears.

    15 Jul 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for correcting my erroneous assumption. I learn something new every day.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • How can a car company producing maybe 20K units this year justify a $15Billion market cap? It works out to $750K per unit. Preposterous!
    15 Jul 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • If you are good at timing bubbles and sentiment shifts, I would say buy LOADS of deep out of the money puts on it! If you get your timing right, you are in for bumper profits!!
    15 Jul 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tesla's done a good job of defying gravity so far, but every rocket eventually reaches apogee and that's a very bad point to be long.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • I must say that herd behavior will never cease to amaze me. If you had asked me 6 months ago how high Tesla would go, I would have said 50/share was the high point before crashing, now it trades at well over twice that!!!


    Just amazing.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • I had thought the valuation at $33 was excessive, but then, I only seem to find falling knives to be attractive.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • So, if Axion share price falls below 0.10 and they have to then pay back the PIPE investors with cash, does that immediately put them into a financial crisis? Would they even have the cash to pay them back with the additional interest they would have to pay?
    15 Jul 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • HTL posted it yesterday, if the VWAP is .10 for so many days it is considered a failure and Maxim investors can demand payment in full at 125% of the debt amount. So they get 25% profit, and yes, IMO it will create a financial crisis.
    This was the best deal on the table at the time, so where does the repayment in cash come from ?
    15 Jul 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • The determination is made on an installment by installment basis. As much as you might enjoy yammering about impending doom, it isn't happening.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • JP. At 0.29 before the PIPE. Now at 0.13 and falling and the CFO just resigned. Can you really be so confident that 0.10 isn't happening?
    15 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Yes I can, but then I know the company, the management, the technology and the history of all three inside out. I also have direct access to ePower, and end-user that readily admits that it's first ever series hybrid drive for heavy trucking simply would not work without the PbC.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Nobody is arguing that the PbC isn't a great technology. The question is who will own the company when if finally takes off.


    Anyway, I got an answer to my original question. That is, yes, having to pay back PIPE investors at 125% in cash would put them in a financial crisis.


    Price now flirting with 0.12. I picked a fine week to give up sniffing glue.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Good Morning, JP !


    Burnt toast this morning ? It could always be worse, y'know. You could be forced to eat ground acorns, shrubbery, and squozen fish entrails like my wife makes me eat. Anyway ! This too shall pass. Look at the bright side.


    It's sunny here today and my bleeping grass is growing about an inch/hour. I just cut the stuff four days ago and it needs it already again! And, FWIW, that's a six hour job.


    Anyway, the sky is blue, the sun is out, it's Monday (my favorite day), we're now a week closer to football season, and I have an empty nest with the chicks college educated and the bills paid. Is this a great country or what ! ? ! !


    Still, I have to admit I enjoy a little G&D. I also love to scare myself. Werewolves, vampires, stepping in cow pies . . . . you know. Truth to tell, if I can convince myself that Axion is facing imminent disaster then I retain the right to strut my stuff (so long as SWMBO is not around) about what a courageous investor I am . . . . . but only if I hold.


    Aaaaand as much as I know you disapprove, I'll be casting a red herring lure in the water today. Don't have a big tackle box, but have a few teenies. Assume you make a $.128 hit. When this ship turns around ( and it will ! ), I can make a quick 50% with a 6 cent rise. Now 50% of $400 ain't much, but it would make for a nice dinner & movies, yes ???


    And while I'm at it when we're all laughing & scratching over our genius & courage, I'm headed your way. And dinner's on you. :>)
    15 Jul 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • NGS> The answer you got was bogus.


    If there's a price failure then the company MAY be required to make ONE installment payment in cash. You're pretending that the entire debt will be accelerated and that's simply not the case.


    It would take several months of sub-$.10 prices to precipitate a crisis and that's simply not happening.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • I hope you are right. I have a GTC buy order at 0.105 to help build a wall in front of .10. Can't do it all by myself, though.


    It'd be nice if they sold something in the meantime.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Aside from an initial penny slump the price has been firming all morning with very high volumes. Trego's resignation obviously left some folks worried, but it was nowhere near enough to set off a stampede. Everybody who owns Axion stock knows that the current price is a joke and based solely on fear that no news may be a portent of doom. I can't guarantee that you won't get a fill on your order, but I wouldn't count on it were I in your shoes.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • A re-post of HTL's reply to me yesterday:


    This is in the last paragraph...please explain "all"
    "the Company shall redeem all or any part designated by the Holder of the unconverted Company Conversion Amount"


    LT: the important thing is the WVAP, not highs, lows, closes, ...




    Pg 43, (jj): "“Price Failure” means, with respect to a particular date of determination, the VWAP of the Common Stock on any Trading Day during the fifteen (15) consecutive Trading Day period ending on the Trading Day immediately preceding such date of determination (such period, the “Price Failure Measuring Period”) fails to exceed $0.10 (as adjusted for stock splits, stock dividends, stock combinations, recapitalizations or other similar transactions). All such determinations to be appropriately adjusted for any stock splits, stock dividends, stock combinations, recapitalizations or other similar transactions during such Price Failure Measuring Period".


    It's used only in reference to "Equity Conditions", which we've touched on before, pg 38 (p).


    See also pg 39 (q) "Equity Conditions Failure".


    First reference to that is on pg 7 "4. RIGHTS UPON EVENT OF DEFAULT."


    Pg 19, under "8. COMPANY INSTALLMENT CONVERSION OR REDEMPTION.", "(a) General", we find "... provided further that the Company shall not be entitled to effect a Company Conversion with respect to any portion of such Installment Amount and shall be required to pay the entire amount of such Installment Amount in cash (a “Company Redemption”) if on the applicable Installment Notice Due Date or on the applicable Installment Date (as the case may be) there is an Equity Conditions Failure, except that a Company Conversion may still occur on the applicable Installment Date in accordance with Section 8(b) with the written consent of the Holder. On the date which is the twenty-three (23rd) Trading Day prior to each Installment Date ...".


    There's ways to avoid paying the cash if the financiers agree.


    HardToLove 13 Jul, 06:46 AMReply! Report AbuseLike5


    H. T. LoveComments (13689)
    Uh, another important piece, from page 20, (b) "Mechanics of conversion", " ... If an Event of Default occurs during any applicable Equity Conditions Measuring Period, then, at the option of the Holder designated in writing to the Company, either (i) the Holder shall ... If any of the Equity Conditions are not satisfied ... the Holder may require the Company to do any one or more of the following: (i) the Company shall redeem all or any part designated by the Holder of the unconverted Company Conversion Amount (such designated amount is referred to as the “Designated Redemption Amount”) and the Company shall pay to the Holder within three (3) days of such Installment Date, by wire transfer of immediately available funds, an amount in cash equal to 125% of such Designated Redemption Amount ..."


    HardToLove 13 Jul, 07:02 AMReply! Report AbuseLike
    15 Jul 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Sales would be wonderful. I have to speculate that little of that is imminent. From what very little I know any meaningful sales before November/ December seems highly unlikely.


    What I'm a whole lot more interested in is an OEM announcement. Now that's where we can watch a bunch of shorts amusing us. Not to mention buying us a nice dinner.


    Oh, and just watch various cowboys emerge from the woodwork then!


    I'm thinking of having the 15' Boston Whaler here on an aluminum trailer. Sort of a bass boat / brackish water incursion craft. A sea trout gitter y'might say. And in Oriental, NC the 28-footer. Nice inshore ride with the occasional blue water run for dolphin. SWMBO never complains when I eat seafood. My goodness how I love peace at the dinner table !
    15 Jul 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • All of those provisions relate to individual installments - NOT the entire balance outstanding.


    Paying one installment in cash would not be enough to precipitate a crisis of any kind. Paying several installments in cash could be problematic.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • I thought they said in the last conference call that they expect some (2 or 3?) power cube sales this year. That would be some potential good news if they could ship at least one of those.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Back to the PR issue. I saw several news items broadcasting the resignation of Mr. Trego. Not until this morning do I see any mention that he will be sticking around. Axion should have been all over this right from the get go announcing his continued commitment to the company! Surely that's part of the Marketing 101 syllabus?


    I've been nibbling all the way down but this ineptitude really worries me. WHo is in charge of PR at Axion and why don't they have a clue as to how to do their job?


    Great product. Pityfull PR. The all too predictable share price drop surely could have been somewhat moderated, if not eliminated with a decent and timely press release.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Try sniffing drying paint :-)
    15 Jul 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Do we know how much of a reserve they have. If they have to repay installments, then not only do they not get the money they were planning on, but they have a 25% penalty.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • LF to next earnings report
    15 Jul 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Usually I assume a company knows what they're doing. Have been wondering about sales though...... Stumbled across the bio for Vani Dantam. Don't pay attention to very much however did notice:


    Attended Indiana
    Wharton - UPenn


    He may be pursuing the wrong course in marketing, but he probably is doing a knowledgeable job of course execution. Pretty sharp razor we have carrying our sales banner. My pinyun at least. I'll go ahead and take some of my fear creatures and stuff them back in the locker.


    Wharton @ UPenn. That's almost as good as Ivy League. :>)
    15 Jul 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Another continent rethinks carbon tax.

    15 Jul 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Australian Elections coming in September. Pundits predict that the current ruling party (Left) will lose 50% of seats...


    Ousted PM and cabinet, installed old (Rudd, somewhat more conservative prior leader of the Left) in an attempt to salvage some seats.


    Politics, and yes...


    Elections do have consequences.
    15 Jul 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Hello Everyone!


    Allen Caron mentions Axion in his blog today.



    I have been adding to my Axion position in the past few weeks, at .16 and .15 etc. May try to pick up more shares today on the dip. I have surpassed 104,000 shares now and have not sold any. I am expecting pps of at least $1.00 this year yet.


    I even took a 30% profit in some CPST last week to re-invest it in AXPW.


    Thanks to all who post good information in the APC's.
    No thanks to whiners/grumblers fearing/spreading doom.


    Axion is on course to great success and each employee and all of the management is top notch, IMO.
    Give them "Just a little more time"!




    I am Long: AXPW KNDI CPST and others


    15 Jul 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Tim. --- Alphameister posted a couple months ago: --- "Going back almost ten years, there has not been a calendar year in which AXPW failed to trade above $.60 a share."


    I've kept that in mind, and with all the of potential pending news announcements [and timing of course], I think we could easily reach that amount. But I appreciate hearing your own estimate of $1.00. :-))
    15 Jul 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne. {?}

    15 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Iindelco LOL --- To borrow an expression from the old Cool Hand Luke movie, thanks for helping me "get my mind right". :-))
    15 Jul 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • "Shakin' the bush" Wayne. ;-)


    BTW, Sales wouldn't do it this year but a good solid hand shake would. Hey, I can hope a little too.
    15 Jul 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • AXPW PR email on SA.


    Our friend, IT has posted.
    15 Jul 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • You just know he's going after more public funds. IMO.


    Elon Musk to reveal 'fifth form' of transport on August 12 known as the Hyperloop

    15 Jul 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • I'm expecting a giant version of the vacuum transit tube systems they use for bank deposits at the drive-through teller.

    15 Jul 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • It'll be a rail gun designed to carry people
    15 Jul 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • >That would mean this "fifth form" would need to hit speeds of 1200 mph (760 average) or be limited to people that passed the physical and could take 5 G's of acceleration?
    15 Jul 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Genius! Sheer genius.


    <snark font off>
    15 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like it's faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive and can leap tall buildings in a single bound..........
    15 Jul 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • dastar, it will definitely be faster than that locomotive we're waiting for, isn't it?
    15 Jul 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • 30 NS Virginia employees previously furloughed were re-hired today.


    Of those thirty, 12 are returning to the locomotive shop in Roanoke.


    15 Jul 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Valley,


    Thanks for that! Sounds like they must be going to ramp up efforts on the 999! Ok, maybe I am taking that a bit too far in regards to "fact" but it felt good!
    15 Jul 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Especially since the 999 is in Altoona and the furloughed employees are going back to work in Roanoke.
    15 Jul 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • But only 12 going to Roanoke leaves the question of the others. Some in Altoona?


    15 Jul 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Da' detail.


    Norfolk Southern rehires 42 laid-off Va. workers

    15 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • I, at a very young age, was fixated on the vacuum money transfer machine at Grants for a period. Maybe I was trying to figure out a way to get between the beginning point and the destination?


    I figure he can re-purpose the "rodent runs" at the Charles De Gaulle airport. I didn't coin the expression.


    I'm sure you've scampered through em'. lol

    15 Jul 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • I always loved the " CA-THUNK ! " when the tubes returned.
    15 Jul 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • I view De Gaulle as the airport of infinite possibilities and I know for certain that only a few of those possibilities are pleasant. Since I do my best to avoid adventure when making travel plans ...
    15 Jul 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood: Yep: it's not the speed that'd kill ya: it's the sudden stop...


    Interesting that the EV manufacturer that "Muskn't" be named is showing a small hairline crack today in its stock price. Full disclosure: I'm a big fan of St. Elon, but I'm still short his stock.


    Was in Michigan (where I'm originally from) over the weekend for a wedding. We rented the Ford Fusion Hybrid (NOT the Energi). WOW!!! We drove to Lake Michigan from DTW and back on nearly one tank of gas. We got roughly 43 Miles/Gallon in mixed conditions. Not the 47 that was advertised: could be A/C on MAX... don't know, but we drove it "gently" to see what we could get.


    I was telling a family member that now I understand what a Hybrid "feels" like to drive, but as JP would say: "the minute you add a plug, the economics go out the window"... I just don't see how adding 10k for the "Energi, i.e., PHEV" would have a decent R.O.I sans a big Tax Credit from Uncle Sam.


    Overall, I'm impressed wit the Fusion Hybrid: Big elephant in the room is how the battery will hold up after, say, 50,000 miles (ours only had 12,000 miles and was only a few months old.
    15 Jul 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Somebody had bought a Camry Hybrid on this board: If you're still there, care to give the skinny on what you think of it? Either here or a PM... Thanks!
    15 Jul 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Just watched ARCA, who had been in most of the A.M. and then went away, come back in on the ask @ $0.137 and walk the ask down to $0.1333 - a gift of our late-day weakness from our favorite MM. The only reason they stopped there, I think, is they would have bumped into the $0.132 bid. Might have messed up the buys in their other account(s) I guess.


    15 Jul 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • If my chart is correct, we just had a 52-week high in volume. Today we traded 1,531,800 shares: Many, many shares traded hands today.
    With any luck, that spike in Shorted Shares mentioned by HTL and JP for June (I think) got at least partially covered today.


    From a technical perspective, this would be considered a "wash-out" day. It will be interesting to see how we trade the rest of the week.
    15 Jul 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • O.R: Max volume since I started my charts, 2/12, is 2345.0K. You made a good catch too!


    In thousands:
    4/26/12 2345.0
    7/15/13 1532.20
    1/7/13 1460.8
    4/29/13 1332.38
    6/10/13 1330.46
    6/27/13 1313.86
    6/11/13 1311.85
    7/10/12 1257.0


    15 Jul 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • My data begins when the ink dried on December 31, 2003 and I show today as the 4th highest volume in Axion's history.


    1-Feb-12 – 2,549,500
    26-Apr-12 – 2,354,100
    19-Aug-11 – 1,560,200
    15-Jul-13 – 1,531,200
    15 Jul 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • yes but now there are twice as much shares and the price is very low. 1,5 mil shares are something like 200,000$...
    anyway its always nice to see that there is still a market...
    15 Jul 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • JP,


    What are the highest dollar amount days? I think early 2011 had near Million dollar days. I'd like to see even $250,000 change hands now.
    16 Jul 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • My gut tells me shares were "covered" today. For every seller, there is a buyer: I think I know who *most* of the buyers were. When is the next report of shorted shares outstanding?
    15 Jul 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • O.R:




    15 Jul 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • If we're starting a gentleman's pool I'll take "no significant change in the 7/15/13 short interest."
    15 Jul 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • John: would that date *include* today's trading? If so, I'll take the other side of that gentleman's pool as I think i'd behoove the stock price for that to be the case, i.e, short covering.
    15 Jul 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • O.R: That link gives the closing date.


    15 Jul 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Gracias!
    15 Jul 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • "In addition to working on special projects at the direction of the CEO," (from today's PR).


    Does anybody know or have ideas about what the special projects might be?
    15 Jul 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Would be nice to have an Axion inside sticker on these.


    Railway Challenge winners announced


    "“Manchester Metropolitan University came a close second with a storming performance in the energy challenge - where the locomotive has to store energy during braking and use it to drive the locomotive forward as far as possible."

    15 Jul 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • 07/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 210, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol 1532199, AvTrSz: 7296
    Min. Pr: 0.1251, Max Pr: 0.1380, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1318
    # Buys, Shares: 114 766760, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1338
    # Sells, Shares: 91 739614, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1298
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 25825, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1309
    Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (50% “buys”), DlyShts 265900 (17.35%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.95%


    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1657, in 40 days: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/15: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs, $0.1625, in 40 days: $0.1381


    Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902.27, 1532.2.


    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: -8.7%, 10.3%, 5.0%, 2.8%, 1.0%, 4.6%
    5-day change: -83.3%, -178.1%, 16.9%, -25.3%, -41.9%, 40.9%
    5-day rate of change change: -31.0%, -1545.0%, -51.5%, -52.2%, -373.3%, 155.9%


    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: -24.4%, -8.4%, -6.2%, -16.4%, -13.3%, -18.4%
    5-day change: -111.6%, -1871.6%, -67.5%, -139.7%, -149.8%, -127.1%
    5-day rate of change change: -27.3%, -120.6%, -63.5%, -65.2%, -80.5%, -65.0%


    ARCA was again on the ask from the get-go today through around 11:30 or so (unsure exactly). We opened at $0.13 and dropped to $0.1251 by 09:33:27 on 28 trades. Price was volatile through 11:37, not being able to hold $0.13 in spite of several attempts during that period. Volume was 781.4K, buys were 37.14% of the volume and sells were 62.86%. Our VWAP was $0.1292.


    How much of this was due to the very late PR (a weekend lag from the filing to the appearance of the PR – sort of dumb?) about Chuck Trego being suggested to join the BOD and hanging around to consult and help find a new CFO is not known. Regardless, after this period we had a pretty good day from then until ... HE'S BAAAACK!


    Yep, ARCA decided to reappear somewhere around the close (I didn't catch 'em until 15:57 when they undercut the best ask at that time, $0.138, with their own $0.137). They then rapidly walked the ask down to $0.134. From 15:53 to the close, every trade (7) was a sell, moving 38.5K in that 7 minutes. Based on that I'm guessing they came back at 15:53 to make sure we got our dose of late-day weakness.


    With ARCA being absent a good part of the day, our usual suspects dominated the rest of the periods, resulting in a lower daily short sales volume (relative to what I would expect for the volume traded today) and percentage. Still, ~266K shares shorted (most due to the normal MM processes?) is nothing to sneeze at.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    15 Jul 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Is NS is working with PbC batteries manufactured using the new automated carbon sheeting process with its improved performance? Or are they still only using and evaluating the older version they purchased last year? --- Thanks.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • >WayneinOregon ... The PbC v1.0. I certainly don't remember Axion saying anything about swapping them out for the post automated sheeted PbC v2.0. It wouldn't make sense to do that because of all the data they have collected and baselined using the older style. Field trials with NS999 will be to verify & validate predicted performance models.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks DRich. --- I have no engineering background whatsoever, but my understanding is that the old PbC v1.0 will no longer be produced. And since ePower is getting notable improvements using the PbC v2.0, wouldn't NS want to collect data on the newer v.2s they would presumably be using in the future?


    From a sales perspective, I also wonder if it would be good customer relations to "offer" some PbC v.2s for NS to start working with. Again, I have no technical background in this kind of stuff, but I do know how little gestures can sometimes go a long way in solidifying business relationships


    I was also wondering how difficult or costly it would be to recycle the old v.1s into v.2s. Could it possibly be worthwhile not only as a customer relations gesture, but to also get more experience using the new carbon sheeting process [not sure if they need more experience or not].
    15 Jul 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • NS and ePower use their batteries very differently and while PbC 2.0 performs significantly better for ePower's application that may not be the case for NS, or more particularly the NS 999. If there's a big difference in the way the two batteries will work in the locomotive, it may take some additional time to refine and optimize the battery and current management and control systems. So I don't know that I'd be pulling for the swap them out immediately option.


    I have every confidence that Axion will continue working closely with NS and do everything in its power to ensure that NS has the best batteries for its needs.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • >WayneinOregon ... I'm not a sales person in any stretch of imagination but it might not be a bad idea & be good marketing to give a string to Penn State. That would be handy for them to start baselining the PbC v2.0 to use as a comparison to other battery types they test.


    Norfolk Southern wouldn't be interested in the least until they know, beyond any doubt, what they have in their hands right now. If things check out, as is, with NSC, they will be back expecting better performance.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks JP & DRich...
    15 Jul 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • JP, or others technically competent: --- I hope you don't mind a couple followup questions.


    1) If NS finds the v.1 works better, does this mean that the v.1 batteries manufactured for them going forward would NOT use the new carbon sheeting process? 2) Is BMW in the same situation as NS, having done all their testing on the v.1, and may not necessarily end up using the v.2?


    15 Jul 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • >WayneinOregon ... Within limits (we know nothing about) the PbC is "tunable". Performance can be tailored to an application. Things like varying the mass of electrodes are likely candidates.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Do they have to re-do testing giving the manufacturing process has changed?
    15 Jul 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • probably not. FP A but how any of us could answer with certainty is beyond me.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne, I believe (and others please correct me if wrong) that the ver2.0 batteries that ePower is now using do not just differ from ver1.0 only in using the new carbon sheeting, but were in fact tweaked in other aspects of their design specifically for ePower's requirements. So it would seem to me that there is also the possibility that NSC will get its own version 2.0 batteries at some point using the new carbon sheeting, but likely remaining similar in other design aspects to their Ver1.0 batteries. In other words, it's hard to imagine that Axion will continue to incorporate carbon sheeting from the old manual process into any production batteries going forward---it would seem to me that all new PbC's would/should use the new continuous roll carbon and in view of that it's hard to see how all parties wouldn't have to do at least some new testing with the revised batteries...


    also, WRT to the fleets and fuels PR, they indicate that ePower is now located in Pennsylvania (I thought Florence KY) So... typo? Or... relocation? Very interesting if the latter...
    16 Jul 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • That's what I was thinking 48. It seems if the battery's manufacturing process and/ or operating characteristics substantively changed, than a requalification/ revalidation would be necessary. Why go through all the effort of testing something to insure it works and than decide not to re-test if the product changes?
    16 Jul 2013, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • When there's a step-change in performance as the result of a new process users will typically want to do a series of tests to reestablish their baseline numbers. It's nowhere near as exhaustive as the initial test regime, but it is an important step.


    The really surprising thing about the sheeting process automation was that it improved consistency and performance. Machines almost always improve consistency because they only know one way to do a job, but you usually make sacrifices that negatively impact performance. So the basic formula is lower cost, better consistency and reduced performance. Axion's carbon sheeting process was a real fluke because it generated lower cost, better consistency and better performance.


    Since I'm leaving this morning for Florence Kentucky I really hope that ePower is not in PA.
    16 Jul 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • "leaving this morning for ... I really hope that ePower is not in PA"


    It's OK - they'll send a truck for you! ;-))


    16 Jul 2013, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • >FocalPointAnalytics ... The continued testing to the PbC v1.0 is as much about making sure the methodology that NSC & Penn State has developed is accurate as much as it is about the battery product. They really need to verify the model is correct before using the same regime to test other PbC types and/or another battery chemistry. It is one of many legitimate reasons for wanting to evaluate & stress the Corvus battery. To see how it stacks up using the procedures developed with the PbC.
    16 Jul 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • John - you got it; differentiation matters. Can you imagine evaluating an escalator to an elevator without considering defining conditions? How about an inclined escalator to a horizontal moving sidewalk? Apples to oranges comparisons used to be understood. Batteries to batteries? What it is, is one thing. How it is used is another. And the rest also count: When, Why and Who, and yes, how much, and for whom, etc. As much why, as why not? It is this, and not this.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • There's a really nice Japanese restaurant in that area, if interested I'll get the address from my wife.
    16 Jul 2013, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Fleets & Fuels covers "10 more Axion PbC packs for ePower"


    Looks like there is news here. Not just a rehash of a PR. See the last sentence below:


    (quote on)
    Fuel Economy Could Be Nearly Tripled


    The ePower upfits are being tested by several fleet operators, among them Iowa-based Keane Thummel Trucking.


    The upfits are said to increase fuel efficiency by better than double, from about 5 miles per gallon to 10 to 14 mpg.


    “ePower has targeted the retrofit market,” Axion says, “as 37% of the 2.7 million U.S. trucks are 5 to 12 years old, have outlived their drivetrain warranties but usually have remaining life in their chassis, bodies and other parts.”


    “ePower believes its retrofits will pay for themselves through fuel savings alone in 18 to 24 months.”


    The long-term agreement now being negotiated could result in exclusivity on both sides: ePower would use Axion’s batteries only and, for the heavy truck market, Axion would sell only to ePower. “We’re willing to lock ourselves up and sell exclusively to them,” Granville says.
    (end quote)


    I hope this isn't the end of our dream application of an anti-idle APU for OTR trucks.
    15 Jul 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Big numbers!


    "The upfits are said to increase fuel efficiency by better than double, from about 5 miles per gallon to 10 to 14 mpg."
    15 Jul 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • "I hope this isn't the end of our dream application of an anti-idle APU for OTR trucks."


    Recall that TG has specifically detailed that the ePower deal is separate from the APU and other transportation efforts underway.


    16 Jul 2013, 04:48 AM Reply Like
  • Why would TG commit Axion in an exclusive deal with ePower? Aren't there any other Class 8 truck operators he is willing to negotiate with, or is ePower handling the conversion for a market share big enough for TG to consider an exclusive deal?


    Out of curiosity, how many Class 8 trucks can ePower realistically target in its home market?


    16 Jul 2013, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna: It's not "operators" - ePower designed, developed and is marketing the product to operators. Axion is just batteries, maybe some help on BMS and other design?


    16 Jul 2013, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,


    There must be some other companies that do the same job as ePower, does that mean if Axion commits to ePower then they can't do business with other companies? TG would realistically only commit if ePower has a huge potential market for its retrofitted engines
    16 Jul 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • >Amouna ... There is a German company that is doing roughly the exact same configuration in a freight truck as ePower. I've no idea how the EU classifies them but they are similar in size & application. The difference is in the use of lithium instead of PbC. I'm sure that if a company developed a system similar to ePower in the EU or China and needed PbC (ePower not expanding operations into either) then Axion would divide up the world market.


    Expanding the business one niche at a time. Axion has to exploit niche markets because it will never be "The One & Only" any other way. It will never be what people try to do with Li-on and make it the world dominate chemistry for all purposes. With 2.8 million Class 8 (not sure about Class 6 & 7 numbers) it's worth taking a shot with the only N.American patent holder for hybrid trucks that needs Axion's PbC.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • I would expect that EU legislation would greatly favor the PbC vs lithium just from a recycling perspective. The EU doesn't like lead but at least it can be recycled!
    16 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich,


    I had no idea ePower was the only N. American patent holder for hybrid trucks, and assumed there were other competitors as well...
    16 Jul 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • >Amouna ... Well, that may be overstating it a little. There are a few patents I found, doing a quick an totally cursory search, a few similar ones using Li-on and NiMH, but there is enough difference to distinguish them. Using LAB solutions and/or in the weight classes 6-7-8, ePower is it. It is also the only one that has a product ready for the marketplace.


    I would have thought that running a truck like a locomotive would have been a quick conclusion to leap to. I would have been wrong.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna: " for hybrid trucks"


    They're not. There are other forms of hybid efforts, Eaton's comes to mind right away as well as Wrightspeed. Parker Hannefin has some efforts going.


    But I *think* (without having deeply researched) that ePower is the only one offering a retro-fit conversion that uses "off the shelf" commonly available components with such a nice payback period.


    Most of the efforts at the OEM level are for new trucks.


    16 Jul 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... Good point. Add to that I left out the "RETROFIT" aspect of the ePower system. Still, using a LAB solution is not something I've found in any OEM article I remember (allowing for my aging memory).


    If the OEM's have (are having) the same battery problems that ePower & NSC have tested & failed, I think ePower might wind up with future license agreements with one or several OEM's and Axion might pick up that business also. I still think that Li-on solutions will be found no matter the complexity or expense. On the power plant side of the generator, I don't care what that is ... Capstone is fine with me. On the motor side, I don't care (I'm a little biased toward UQM here but I'm in this for marine) ... Wrightspeed is OK.


    I do wish there was One clear & simple answer to cut down on all the nuanced clarifications & rejoinders required to respond to perfectly simple questions.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, DRich,


    Thanks for the details. One would certainly not guess that by looking at ePower's website...
    16 Jul 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • AFIK there are no other companies working in the same space and architecture as ePower, and i know a lot more today than I did yesterday.


    Most heavy transit hybrids are parallel systems where there is a direct mechanical connection between the engine and drive wheels and the electrical system only adds acceleration boost.


    The typical series hybrid uses the generator to charge the batteries and then uses the batteries to power the drive motor. It's basically the same architecture they used for the Fisker Karma, a BEV with a range extender engine.


    The first priority for electricity from ePower's generator is to power the drive wheels directly - a true series electric drive. The batteries are used only for acceleration boost and hill climbing, and the batteries are opportunistically charged when the generator produces more power than the drive motor require or when regenerative braking kicks in.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • A parallel hybrid is more energy efficient but more complex than a series hybrid. Highway driving that is.



    Edit The Chevy volt is an example of series/parallel.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • JP said:


    "The typical series hybrid uses the generator to charge the batteries and then uses the batteries to power the drive motor. . . .
    The first priority for electricity from ePower's generator is to power the drive wheels directly - a true series electric drive. The batteries are used only for acceleration boost and hill climbing, and the batteries are opportunistically charged when the generator produces more power than the drive motor require or when regenerative braking kicks in."


    I hadn't caught that distinction before, for ePower the batteries are not between the generator and the motor.
    I'd like to hear more about the advantage of that and why others don't do it that way. Might explain why ePower is targeting an over-the-road application--unlike other series hybrids which earn their keep in stop and go driving.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • ISTM "between" with respect to batteries, is something of a fallacious description. Batteries typically don't have separate input and output terminals, with only one direction of energy flow. Rather, the same set of terminals serves both functions, with energy either flowing into or out of it, but never both at the same time. So what you'll most always have instead of a "between" arrangement is more like a three-way T intersection: batteries, generator, and motor all connected together at some common junction point---the batteries sometimes delivering energy, other times absorbing it...
    16 Jul 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Good description 48, and only 8 lines in one paragraph! ;^P
    17 Jul 2013, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • ePower has done some very unique things with a drive controller thats been adapted from heavy industry.


    Steel mills and other industrial installations use DC motor brakes to stop lines. They run the current through a converter that turns AC input into DC current. At that point there's a switch that either sends the DC to the brake motor or to another converter that turns the current back into AC for the drive motor.


    What ePower has done is use the DC motor brake port as an input for battery power rather than an output for motor brake power. The AC current from the generator flows in and is converted to DC. DC from the batteries is added in the drive controller. The drive controller then converts all of the DC current back into AC for the drive motor.


    When Jay first had the idea, the electrical engineers said that a motor brake controller could not be used in a bi-directional fashion. The truck has proven otherwise. For most driving the generator is adequate for the drive motor and any excess DC current is shunted to the batteries. For hard acceleration and hill climbing power from the batteries is added back into the system so that two power streams enter the controller and only one comes out.
    17 Jul 2013, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • "When Jay first had the idea, the electrical engineers said that a motor brake controller could not be used in a bi-directional fashion"


    As it was designed. Things can be made to change.
    17 Jul 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • That seems to be a recurring theme in ePower's approach where they're taking components that are designed to perform a particular function and using them to perform functions that the original designers didn't intend. Some have to be tweaked and adjusted to so something completely different and others work fine right off the shelf.
    17 Jul 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • John, My kind of people!


    Kind of like creating a whole new energy storage device and packaging it in an existing manufacturing footprint. Adaptation of existing technology. I'm a big proponent.
    17 Jul 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • My thanks to 48 and iindelco


    ii, I really like the link which succinctly summarizes the whole series vs. parallel thing.


    With series best for city driving, I'm still wondering why ePower is focusing on a series hybrid for OTR. Parallel would be more efficient for the highway. . . Might have to do with the off-the-shelf nature of the design focusing on retrofits. Or they have IP that improves the series design for highway. More power to them.


    I hope they are good business people who understand their profit margins and the market they are targeting. Their plan sure makes sense on paper--if they have a reliable product that saves fuel like they say it will.


    I remain long AXPW.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • "Might have to do with the off-the-shelf nature of the design focusing on retrofits."


    D Lane exactly.


    And remember not to mix up your efficiencies. There is efficiency where work is done with the least amount of energy input and there is efficiency where work is done with the least amount of financial resources. They, as we know, do not perfectly correlate.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane> I have a report that Coca Cola did on their Eaton hybrids and while that parallel system and ePower's series system perform comparably in stop and go driving, the ePower configuration is way better for highway driving.


    It's also jackrabbit quick because of the massive low end torque. Last week they did a 0 to 60 acceleration test without a trailer and came in under 30 seconds.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • 30 seconds to 60 mph seems painfully slow. It is about twice as long as the 0-60 time for a 1975 AMC Pacer, one of the most gutless cars ever built. How does that compare to a conventional tractor?
    17 Jul 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • JP> I don't quite understand as usual. Must be the much smaller ICE.


    I would love to see an independently verified comparison of the two.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Independently verified comparisons are immensely expensive, with price tags that can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars without batting an eye. With systems like ePower's hybrids it's quicker and cheaper to put ten units into the hands of customers and let them do their own verification.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • JP> Sounds good to me!
    17 Jul 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • NGS: That's not a bad time - look at the weight differences! A conventiaonal might be able to best that time if it takes of in a higher gear, possibly sacrificing clutch life, because it saves the shift times, which are painfully slow in a typical manually-shifted truck as you have to weight for the engine rpm to drop, double-clutch etc.


    If you want to sacrifice the whole drive-line lifetime, you can do "speed shifts" that don't use the clutch at all. Not recommended though since transmission overhaul is expensive, plus the towing, down time, ...


    The test results certainly satisfies the need to get up to reasonable speed on an on-ramp and merge with traffic safely.


    17 Jul 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Considering it is without a trailer, that seems slow as all getout. A conventional without a trailer could easily start out in 3rd or 4th gear. Next time I am behind an unladen tractor at a stop light, I'm going to count how fast it gets up to speed.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • John, Still the 4 banger John Deere conversion package correct?
    17 Jul 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • NGS, I have a copy of a Coca Cola study that reports 0-60 times of 77 seconds for a conventional freightliner and 105 seconds for an Eaton hybrid, so under 30 seconds looks pretty good in my book.



    Still the 4 banger Iindelco.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. Just want to make sure people recognize that they are comparing, from a perceptual standpoint, an 8 cylinder to a 4 cylinder series hybrid. They will perform differently but in the end it's all about getting loads from points of origin to distribution points efficiently.


    Lots of US cars used to have V8's as well.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • >"I have a report that Coca Cola did on their Eaton hybrids and while that >parallel system and ePower's series system perform comparably in stop and >go driving, the ePower configuration is way better for highway driving."


    Anyone know why the ePower product is way better for highway driving? That stands conventional wisdom on its head.


    2nd thought: Sounds to me like the PbC regen benefit is similar to the Eaton system batteries? I would have expected a superior result for ePower in urban driving, all other things being equal.
    17 Jul 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane, Well could be that it's currently tuned to optimize energy consumed on specific highway terrain. Perhaps too much battery for the routine it's cycling over in an urban app. Added mass that's not utilized. Also the engine/generator might be sized wrong. And last but not least the BMS has been optimized for the geography where this level of tractor will function the best. Rolling hills. Much like what NSC will be trying to achieve with the OTR unit.


    These platforms are not good for the continental US. They don't add much benefit in flat areas unless they are stopping and starting a lot like the NS999. And they are under powered or add too little benefit during long grades up or down. When you start really trying to optimize efficiency finer details in how the system is configured for more specific tasks means a lot.


    the platform can be tuned such that it would also be good for urban use. But you have to focus in one area where you have the best chance of success first. Biggest market and tons of miles traveled.
    17 Jul 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane - A serial hybrid, with the generator running at optimum rpm, will have some improvement even over an absolutely flat highway. However, real highways, even in the midwest, have changes in gradient, changes in wind speed, etc., which should make a hybrid even more efficient.


    Isn't the Eaton system a hydraulic system, for very short accelerate / decelerate, like garbage trucks?
    17 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • I appreciate the responses.


    Rick, we'll have to wait for JPs response but I have seen a DOE report on Coke trucks using an Eaton hybrid system. Its a battery system. Eaton has both a parallel hybrid system using batteries and one using hydraulic accumulators. I'm not aware of the hydraulic one being applied beyond garbage trucks.
    17 Jul 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • The biggest advantage ePower has in long haul is using the smallest engine possible to haul a load under normal conditions and using the batteries for the sole purpose of providing a little extra oomph for acceleration and hill climbing events. In their second generation truck they tried to replace a 452 hp diesel with a 197 hp four banger. In the third generation they'll up the engine size to 240 hp, but it's still about half the engine size of a conventional tractor


    The Cummins engine ePower just bought has a factory spec fuel consumption of 6.3 gallons per hour in steady state operation, but it will take the steady state output of the generator up to about 125 kw compared to the 97 kw they're getting from the four banger.


    Based on the results it's gotten to date with a smaller engine and lighter loads, ePower believes the new configuration will give it enough power to run at 60 to 65 mph with an 80,000 pound load. From there the math is not rocket science.
    17 Jul 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • "Not rocket science."


    It's good-buddy trucking science. More down to earth. And more practical for improving the lives of 7 billion in the long run.


    It will carry washing machines to the 5 billion who do not yet have them.


    And make us a profit in solving that simple problem.
    17 Jul 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • John, I'm happy to hear that ePower is now going to be working with a Cummins engine. That being said they are on somewhat new ground. These are uber changes.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mercifully the complex parts of their system are all downstream of the flywheel.
    18 Jul 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • 10 mph at full load, using an old refurbished truck, sounds like it will tempt most trucking companies.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • As long as the new Cummins six cylinder adds the boost in electrical output that ePower expects, it should be very attractive to truckers who don't haul maximum weight loads in demanding terrain. It's still a development project and subject to an infinite variety of risks, but the solution looks very promising at this point.
    18 Jul 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • I'm curious about exactly which engine we are talking about. Perhaps this one?
    18 Jul 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • The engine is a Cummins 6.7 and it's apparently rated at 240 hp.
    18 Jul 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • you don't mean MPG?
    18 Jul 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Its a very common powerplant in hybrid transit buses. Cummins should know all about how it performs in the BAE Hybridrive series hybrid. Seems like it should have great longevity if its always running in its sweet spot.
    18 Jul 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • LOL Albertin!
    18 Jul 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • 125kw is less than 170hp. I guess that's why they need the battery boost for acceleration and climbing.


    Let's say a truck need at least 310 hp to get up a mild hill with a load at a decent speed. That means the batteries have to put out 100 kw to make up the difference. If it is a long hill that takes, say, 12 minutes to climb, that means you need at least 20 kwh in storage in the battery before you would have to slow down the truck and downshift.


    I'm not sure how much storage a PbC has, but if each of the 54 batteries had half a kwh, then it would be fine for this scenario. For those big 30-minute steep hills in the rockies, it probably would not be suitable, but even the 450 hp big rigs need to slow down to a crawl on those climbs.


    This also highlights why the fast recharge is needed because one hill is usually follwed by another and they will need to recover that 20 kwh quickly on the downslope in between.
    18 Jul 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • >nogoodslacker ... Torque is what moves loads. Comparing H.P. in ICE to H.P. in a generator is not very useful. I know it is the metric of choice for people to think about but is only useful comparing ICE to ICE. An ICE will use several hundred H.P. to develop the torque an electric motor has from the very first revolution.
    18 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, it takes hp (kw) to generate torque. My simple thought experiment was just to assess the power and supplemental energy storate that might be needed on a moderately hilly terrain. Not how fast it will accelerate. Your point that electric motor torque is available from the getgo just means that the electic motor with the same hp rating will be faster off the line.
    18 Jul 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • NGS> All trucks have problems on long steep grades and they solve them by slowing down and shifting into lower gears while they grind up the grade. The ePower tractor will behave no differently. The place the battery power is needed is long modest grades where trucks want to keep up with the flow of traffic.
    18 Jul 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Hi guys,
    A little OT, but still pertinent. This doesn't say who builds this 3Liter V6 diesel with 240 HP and 420 FLB of torq (in the past all the diesels for Ram were from Cummins). Talk is that it will get 25-30 MPG (we'll see). Hurry up Axion, I want one of these!!!


    BTW, the 6.7L is the engine that the Ram has been using in the 2500 and up series.
    18 Jul 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Gotta take NoGoodSlacker's side here... hill climbing with a load at a steady speed is pure mechanical work delivered at a certain rate. That's the definition of power. Faster rate=more power. Remember a horsepower is 550 ft-lbs delivered/consumed per second. Even a tiny engine can haul a gigantic load up a mountain. Obviously you can make virtually all the torque you want with gear reduction. But it would be at an absolute crawl. If you want to haul the same load up the same mountain but faster (ie 60mph) you're going to need steady state raw power. Faster lift=more power. That's pretty fundamental.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • From day one I've been telling folks that the ePower tractor is not a mountain goat. They're also not testing it in the flatlands. They're based in Florence KY and run their tests on road routes through rolling hills that involve 1% to 3% grades and elevation changes in the 300 foot range. If you want to haul fast in the rockies a big honking diesel is your only choice. ePower is focused on the other 90% of the country that doesn't have long and steep uphill grades.


    ePower is not trying to develop a universal solution because it knows that it can't satisfy all needs. Sometimes you just have to focus on the middle of the bell curve and settle for massively relevant.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • so . . . you're saying that runs from places like Duluth, MN to Rochester, MN would be more typical (day or short-haul routes verse broad-ranging OTR)? That's where ePower sees their cup o' chowder?
    18 Jul 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Most of the big freight haulers work with hub and spoke systems just like the airlines. They have the same trucks running the same routes day in and day out, and many of them work on profit margins in the 2% range while spending 30% or more for fuel. If they can shift even a small percentage of their fuel spending to the bottom line, the increase in overall profitability is enormous. Given a choice between selling one retrofit to a gypsy or a thousand to a fleet, the fleet is a more attractive customer.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • JP, 100% aware and completely agree. No quibble with ePower's goals. I was just trying to weigh in on the conceptual question regarding the relationships between power, torque, speed (rate), and hill-climbing. Confusion can arise because torque and energy are expressed in the same units (ft-lbs), though they are very different things, and not everyone is aware or appreciates how torque x rpm = power.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • OBP,
    I'm more familiar with the West Coast and Southern routes. I could see ePower in the central valley of Ca, but also a good route would be on I10-I20 from Phoenix AZ through the gulf coast. I see a lot of potential good routes in the Mid-West also. Stay away from the mountains in the West, the Ozarks and the East coast mountains and there is a lot of routes and regional carriers to fill the bill.
    18 Jul 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • >Stilldazed, I live in Ashland, OR along I5 and have been wondering if the terrain over the I5 corridor from Canada to Mexico would work. The highest point on this route is a little over 4,000 feet, a few miles south of Ashland [very close to the California border]. Any thoughts? -- Thanks.


    P.S. California is embarking on some very stringent pollution restrictions that many truckers are having difficulties with at this time. So they might be feeling an even greater urgency to find solutions for themselves that would invovle ePower's technology.
    19 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Hi WIO,
    You live in a pretty area. I don't see ePower running the I5 except in certain local areas. The central valley in CA is 500 miles long (appx) and has lots of agriculture and agricultural manufacturing in the lowlands. In Oregon a good route would be from Eugene to Portland.
    Say Hi to the folks at Jackson & Perkins for me (I have lots of their roses at home). ;-)
    19 Jul 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • I am also an Oregon resident (Corvallis) and agree with SD. You could run I-5 north of the Grapevine (LA Area) to Redding and then pick it up again in Eugene (maybe Roseburg) and run all the way to the Canadian border (and beyond).


    I do need to point out that a good deal of freight comes from the ports in LA but you still have the ports in SF...
    19 Jul 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • I'll remind people not vary familiar (such as myself) and the newbies.


    That switching setups is commonly done by big fleets. For example going from Ohio to Pennsylvania. The laws in Ohio, allow triple trailers on the turnpike, Pa does not.
    There is a place where the trucks stop and wait for another from their company to pick up a trailer or drop one off for them. Switching engines to a 'mountain goat' from an ePower hybrid could be done just as easily. (Even at the same time.)
    Also one of our drivers (Tim E I think) explained that he drove to a stopping place 8 hours from where he started. He handed over the keys and his next trip (after a break) was back home. In a different vehicle. With this kind of setup sending the 'mountain goats' back and forth across the mountains and using hybrids across the middle of the country would also be relatively simple.
    20 Jul 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Froggy, I am/was an owner operator of a custom truck so that wasn't me.


    What you are talking about (handing over the keys) is called is slip seating and rarely done. The more common occurrence is re-powering which is dropping the trailer and having a different tractor pull the trailer (your first example).


    This is typically only done with the hub/spoke (LTL) type operations such as FedEx, UPS and Yellow. Both tractors are pulling trailers and they meet in the middle and switch trailers and head home.


    So yes, you could have a loaded tractor leave Redding heading north and meet a loaded southbound ePower tractor in Roseburg and switch trailers and each tractor head back to their home terminal. Likewise in and out of LA.


    As for the larger truckload (TL) fleets such as JB Hunt, Swift, Schneider and Landstar (independants), they only re-power a trailer when the tractor is broke down and the freight needs to move. I only bring these carriers up because they are the largest fleets. However, this doesn't mean they wouldn't start doing it.


    The largest Trucking Companies by revenue...

    20 Jul 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • The fascinating about that list Tim is that I know #15 R&L has 13,000 tractors in its fleet.
    20 Jul 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Tim
    This kind of detail helps a lot.
    20 Jul 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • You are welcome. JP, yes, the tractor count isn't as easy to come by but it can be had. I remember seeing some data on the OOIDA web site but didn't have the time to fetch it. I do know that UPS is close to 100k in their equipment count...
    20 Jul 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ok, so here's what you do... you put TWO little 4-bangers with attached generators under the hood... you plus up the power controller and the traction motor. Maybe add a few more PbC's.. Anyway, so on the flats and bitty hills you keep only the portside engine running... beaucoup fuel economy!.. mo money, mo money!... and then... then, when them daggum mountains appear in the windscreen?.. why you fire up that starboard engine, pour on a tad more coal, tighten up your five-point, and you climb that sucker like a mach-speed escalator. Then, oncet you get on the backside, you secure that portside engine (just to keep em balanced out) and you keep on truckin, sippin gas, cruisin down the highway. Boom! Now don't forget to tip your waitresses folks, we'll be here at least until next quarter! Tell your friends! ;)
    21 Jul 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • 48: Cheaper, lighter and simpler to simply have a larger engine with cylinder shutdown as appropriate.


    21 Jul 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Variable displacement diesel engine
    21 Jul 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • GT: Interesting association there: Inventors Henry W. Cummings. I wonder if he's related to "Cummins".


    21 Jul 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Well, heck, HTL where's the fun in that? I mean, wouldn't you like to be the guy at the truckstop who can tell everyone he's running a twin-engine rig? ;)
    21 Jul 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Then again, maybe he means ePower would have exclusivity for series hybrids for the trucking market. That would be old news.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • Old news or not, I like that it's being recycled with a new July 15 publication. And I don't believe I've heard those kinds of big of mpg improvement numbers bandied about before.
    15 Jul 2013, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Those are truly impressive MPG gains!
    15 Jul 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Konrad article

    15 Jul 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • >Stefan Moroney ... I, for one, welcome Tom Konrad's take ... whatever it turns out to be. He is not one of us other than he is an alternative energy geek. Should be good for an honest assessment.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • I hope Tom talks about the PIPE deal. Hard to value Axion with that kind of overhang. Otherwise I'd think we'd be a 30 cent stock.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • I think Tom will focus on the intrinsic value of the enterprise rather than a specific price for the stock, but I'm really looking forward to pointing him in the right direction when it comes to background materials.
    16 Jul 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, exactly! Plus Konrad is a CFA. I look forward to his take on the PIPE financing.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Just dropped a note to Axion IR asking for clarification. Previously, if my recollection is correct, ePower/Axion have reported roughly 35% gains with the expectation they could get to 50%.
    15 Jul 2013, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • AP -


    Here is the article that you are referring to:

    15 Jul 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • AFIK the relationship between Axion and ePower is restricted to using the PbC in hybrid drive systems for heavy trucking. It apparently will not limit Axion's freedom of movement in (1) batteries for APU systems that eliminate long-term idling in truck stops and rest areas, or (2) heavy stop-start systems to reduce short-term idling in traffic.


    ePower's fuel economy numbers have wide spreads because fuel economy falls as you increase total load weight. Finding a better way to describe the differences is a very high priority for me.
    16 Jul 2013, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • "Finding a better way to describe the differences is a very high priority for me."


    Yes, and it is not just truck gross weight that affects mileage, but route selection, average speed, braking requirements, altitude variations and many other things go into any equation for optimizing fuel mileage.


    Here is a report that highlights some of the factors that must be modeled.


    Perhaps devising a figure for mileage-per-GVW could help, but routing and driving style are probably critically important in trying to standardize any measure across vehicle configurations.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • Sounds like good article material, seems like it's been a long time...
    16 Jul 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • John - along with GVW (payloads matter!) is the terrain and/or route. So as with airlines and also railroads, efficiencies or benefits must be categorized or grouped according to use, distance (turn-arounds or flights per day for aircraft [shorthaul v/s trans cont] or for railroads [switcher v/s OTR, and that requires seaboard v/s mountain differentiation]. The differences are as great as a starter battery performance v/s a stop/start hotel load battery: application matters!! And showing the performance differences per application requires much skill sometimes. Differentiations poorly displayed often renders "no change" as a conclusion. Statisticians do it all the time to defeat or make points according to their agenda. Averages can mask peak performances that really count.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • I've had my Saturn Vue "Green line" Hi bred Stopa starta for Seven years come this November. 55,000 Miles now. I've only changed the oil and rotated the tires and had one Fuel injector replaced. The start stop system functions most of the time going through in explicable stages of working all the time to others not so much.


    The engine light just shut off yesterday having annoyed me for a couple of months. I put the $6 Vavoline fuel system cleaner in four days ago... maybe that and the hot hot weather.


    Do I need to change he spark plugs....ever?


    After holding AXPW for a long time I bailed out at .16 due to the pipe scare.


    Looks like it's up from here.
    16 Jul 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • Snowboard, IIRC the "Green Line" Version of the VUE has a NIMH battery for energy recuperation off the belt driven alternator.


    Most modern manufacturers have gone to 100,000 mile spark plugs because they are so cost effective and more importantly they are so hard to get at due to all the added "stuff" in the engine compartment.


    Yes, NIMH. Were you involved in the recall?

    16 Jul 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • iiDelco


    Yes the recall happened in the first year. The 7 year warranty expires
    In November so if the battery dies in think it is around $1000.
    I mostly hop on the interstate so at 26MPG I would do better with something else.
    In Brroklyn NY where there is no right turn on Red nor sensor activated lights like most in Rhode Island a Handy man would do well with this SUV . The front seat fols down to accomidate a 8" ladder and 2 x 4s or a surfboard .
    18 Jul 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Isn't the fuel saving mostly due to regenerative braking? Additional weight introduces loses due to heat and friction that can't be recovered by regeneration. Also, is there a practical braking rate that exceeds the recapture rate? Even the PbC still has a charge rate limit.


    It would seem that if you were a cautious driver you could still get good recovery no matter the weight. (Minus the heat and friction loss of course.)
    I expect train performance to push those boundaries once NS gets "on board".
    16 Jul 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Greentonque: IIUC, most of the gain is from being able to run the IC engine at a constant speed in its "sweet spot" for the ePower application. The batteries are used for acceleration and hill climbing and can take advantage of regenerative braking in ePower's design, IIRC.


    As to the limits of the PbC charge acceptance, we heard discussions of rates as high as 400 amps seen, again IIRC. We know that 200 amps is NP.


    16 Jul 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Received a note back early this morning from Tom Granville confirming that the info in the article is incorrect. The article appears to include an error derived from old information on ePower's website.


    For whatever it is worth there seems to have been a flurry of comms on this issue while we were all sleeping.
    16 Jul 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, apm for your diligence efforts. Whenever I see what look to me like inflated mpg claims, I run them thru what I call the "Rick K sniff test." Those numbers in the article smelled really bad.
    16 Jul 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Wouldn't it be nice if they were on the low side. ;-)
    16 Jul 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • apmarh,


    Can you paste the pertinent parts of the note?
    16 Jul 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like


    I'll take data 100% of the time, Thank You. I'll leave the "nice" for the politicians around elections. ;-)
    16 Jul 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • >Anybody ... watching the "Automaker That Can't Be Named" trade action today? Seems their banker, Goldman Sachs, has decided that it is a tad overpriced. A couple of days ago some outfit put a $280 price target on it and today GS says .... nah ... maybe $84 is a little more realistic. With ~29% short interest, I'll bet it overshoots that. $50 to $60 by August wouldn't surprise me. They report next Monday.

    16 Jul 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: I'm thinking GS, knowing their history, is one of the larger short positions.


    16 Jul 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • >H.T.Love ... GS holds EM's shares as collateral so ... yeah, it only makes sense they would short this right down to the skivvies. They are known as the "Vampire Squid" for good reason.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, I'd bet you but I'm afraid we'd both be on the same side of the bet.


    They have one tool you and I don't have. They can place their bet and then apply stimulus. Not a bad tool to have in ones possession. ;-{)
    16 Jul 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • It's hard to beat the rant of Max Keiser on GS and vampire squidism:

    16 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • FWIW: I was unable to get a "borrow" to *add* to my short position... GS tends to suck all the air out of the liquidity!
    16 Jul 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • GS understands the massive impact lease accounting will have on revenue. A Tesla financed Model S sale will generate about $4,000 per quarter in top line revenue, as opposed to a cash or somebody else financed sale that will generate about $90,000 in top line revenue. I've seen take rate estimates of 25% to 50% for the Tesla financing because it's such a sweet deal for the buyer.
    16 Jul 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • John-


    The reason for the revenue difference on the lease accounting is due to the fact that Mr. Musk had to sign off on the resale value. If a normal bank or credit union was doing the lease they wouldn't have the revenue recognition problem, correct?


    I think its an important point that many don't understand.
    17 Jul 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla has guaranteed residual value to the financiers, as has Mr. Musk. So instead of recognizing the entire sale price of a vehicle when it's delivered, Tesla will only be able to book 1/36 of the spread between the sticker price and the guaranteed residual value per month.
    17 Jul 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • John, am I right in thinking this 'guarantee' is going to weigh heavily on their next financial reporting?
    17 Jul 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • I'm not entirely sure when the guarantee will become an audit issue, but I'm highly confident that it will at some point over the next 12 to 24 months when there are enough vehicle resales to begin developing a baseline.
    17 Jul 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, I agree.
    16 Jul 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • FYI: Fails to deliver for shortly after we saw one of the short spikes. Not really that large or even significant in terms of effect, but quite useful, IMO, in aiding in understanding what's going on. This seems reasonable only because we had a few months of essentially zero and then the first ones showed up when we (I like to spread the blame where possible) predicted they might.


    The price shown is what the SEC thinks they would have paid to cover that day. Keep in mind these are rolling totals, so the peak(s) are of interests as well intervals from there to zero.


    My best *guess* is there's a hiccup in the giddyup for locating shorted shares in a timely fashion. I.E. they naked short and then look to receive or borrow the shares?




    16 Jul 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,


    Maybe my eyes are seeing things but it appears that someone is pecking away at the offers! Haven't seen that for a while on this stock! Please correct me if I am wrong!


    16 Jul 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun: I couldn't follow as closely as normal today, but I did see ARCA get taken right off the top of the ask a couple of times.


    There was a fair amount of bid increases and after a while saw some asks increased that weren't just immediately covered by lower asks,


    So I think you observed correctly.


    The EOD buy:sell seems to support what you saw too: 1:1.01. Not great but certainly well balanced, which has been less frequent recently.


    16 Jul 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Axion gets a nice mention in another article:


    Future Of Green Technology Keeps On Truckin’
    JULY 15, 2013 5:02 PM
    Alternative forms of transportation have been making the news lately as many companies explore different ways of moving into the future of green technology.


    "Creating green technology (NYSEARCA:GEX) improvements in vehicles isn’t solely limited to creating environmentally friendly vehicles. New Castle, PA-based Axion Power International, Inc* (OTCMKTS:AXPW) recently received a new purchase order to provide their PbC batteries to ePower Engine Systems LLC. The two companies are nearing the end of negotiations for a long-term contract for the batteries. ePower uses Axion’s PbC batteries to convert typical commercial trucks into series diesel electric hybrid drive train systems. If a long-term contract is unveiled, it could help convert even more trucks to diesel electric hybrids, helping improve miles per gallon in the trucking industry. AXPW closed July 12 at $0.138, down $0.007, with a market cap of $14.61 million. Its 52-week trading range is $0.13 – $0.38."


    Along with Tom Konrad's upcoming research article on Axion, are we on the verge of a publicity gush? --- I HOPE......

    16 Jul 2013, 03:05 PM Reply