Seeking Alpha

Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (316)
Track new comments
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1498) | Send Message
     
    The advantage of being on WEST. (Western European Savings Time)
    21 Jul 2013, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    DST
    21 Jul 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Uno, dos, tres, wanna do a dance, quatro!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Wooly-Bully !
    21 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Quattro – with stop-start of course

     

    http://bit.ly/14tLKE6
    21 Jul 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    What effect do you see from the NS "announcement" and the results back on the FOIA request (to identify a partner)? Can "expected revenue" start to be reflected in the stock price?
    Also, what about the Tom Konrad piece? Good or bad, will it make any difference?
    21 Jul 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    Not sure how many others missed this ...

     

    "We purchased two of the hybrid rubber tire gantry cranes, known as RTGs, which are used to lift intermodal containers on and off rail cars. The hybrid cranes are powered by a bank of 108 batteries and are designed for continuous operation. During use, a low-horsepower diesel engine charges the batteries." - JP's other NS post.

     

    That sure looks like a "shoe-in" considering the ePower results.
    21 Jul 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    JP and HTL - thank you

     

    Looking forward to JP's next special post

     

    Sensing the glue is going take hold on our two warmest opportunities before too long
    21 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    A friend sent me a quote about politicians that reminds me of some recent back and forth conversations around here:

     

    Politicians are people who, when they see light at the end of the tunnel, go out and buy some more tunnel.

     

    ~John Quinton, American actor/writer
    21 Jul 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    JP: LoL! I love it!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I guess this did work.

     

    Well, bleep. Guess it didn't .

     

    HTL, you can fix. Or do I need to call you????
    Link to a windy post.

     

    http://bit.ly/13vsZhx

     

    so did it work?
    21 Jul 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    VW: Been away a bit from the concentrator. That link in the 15:58 post sent me to the prior concentrator.

     

    What you trying to do?

     

    Making a guess here: http://bit.ly/12a14Wi

     

    HardToLove
    The above link positions one at the comment. If that's what you were trying for, the little "link to comment" with a chain link (hard for old eyes like mine to tell that's what it is) has the url. If you right click on it and pick "Copy link location", that puts it in the clipboard (copy/paste buffer). Then you can ctl-v or right click later and select paste.

     

    HTH
    21 Jul 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    So why can't I vote 17 times on your "like" button. Thanks for fixing that for me.

     

    I can't keep up with you high-octane folks. I try to content myself with effectively ordering a sandwich for lunch at Subway. Usually get it right too !
    21 Jul 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    VW: Some of us have the advantage of having spent time writing code. But that didn't help me when they first brought this feature out - I didn't recognize the little chain-link (IIRC it didn't have "Link to Comment" next to it then) and I had to e-mail support. They said "Click the little chain link". I still couldn't tell, but finally clicked on the little icon and then it was a "clear as mud".

     

    HardToLove.
    P.S. Make mine Italian sub.
    21 Jul 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    and again.

     

    Of course this stuff happens when you allow an old man to play with a mouse.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Jul 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    replying to self:

     

    never-bleeping-mind !
    21 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood, Time for a fitting re-post.

     

    OT

     

    http://bit.ly/18yYkVf
    22 Jul 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    I feel sorry for kids today. No access to the dazzling talent of yesteryear.
    22 Jul 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    "And now for something completely different"

     

    Ref NDA & Axion. This is a public board. To assume no information leaks from here to the public at large is a mistake. Word gets out. Owner/Operators read this board for goodness sake. They see and understand everything. Upon retirement I went from a highly educated crowd to an almost all blue collar crowd. The polish and sophistication has fallen significantly but the intellect seems not to have fallen at all.

     

    There's a great line from the movie, " A Walk in the Clouds". WTTE, " Just because I speak with an accent doesn't mean I think with an accent. "

     

    I think buckets of folks read this board or hear of this board. PbC is not a secret. Also why TG doesn't share information with us on the QT. He knows it's public, and he doesn't know who we are. Some of us are not who we pretend to be. Tsk...tsk...tsk...

     

    Often however instead of listening for something to be said I find it much more instructive to listen to what is not being said. This is one of those times and TG is one of those guys. He's not saying a lot. The silence is deafening. That says a lot to me.

     

    No, I'm not kidding and yes I'm reading up on Boston Whaler.
    21 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    VW: "The silence is deafening. That says a lot to me".

     

    Here's the ol' "Yeah but ..."

     

    We had the same behavior before the financing. That didn't turn out so well from *our* perspective.

     

    So, his silence carries no qualitative information whatsoever, AFAICT.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    HTL, fair enuff.

     

    If I actually knew what I was talking about I'd already own mega shares or I'd be outta here. I'd turn out the lights and be in bed before the room got dark. But I'm holding. Still nibbling.

     

    Just because this guy laid a rotten egg doesn't mean he can't squeeze out gold. I wanna hear the story of the entire PIPE episode one day. And I'm watching Blackrock like a hawk.

     

    Still . . . . . . . . . . I hear you loud & clear. Maybe , like Par Lagerkvist's 1950 Barabbas I just want to believe.
    21 Jul 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, I was particularly keen on discerning dogs that didn't bark and hearing dog whistles transmitting secret code... ;)
    21 Jul 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I've just posted a new Instablog on what I learned during last week's visit to ePower.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Jul 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, John.

     

    That's meat and potatoes to us data-hungry bottom dwellers.
    21 Jul 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    if ePower requires another year to put 10 trucks on the road and get definitive data under multiple conditions, that'll consume about 500 batteries.
    Given the information blackout from all sources, it's hard to see AXPW becoming a "manufacturing company" earlier than sometime in 2014-2015. One can only hope they are producing more, and quietly putting them into the hands of many other technology developers who are determining how they might fit in other applications. Almost any major piece of equipment, like that crane, that runs intermittently is a candidate.
    In many applications, weight is an advantage, like the locomotive. 50-100 batteries matters not when you need a bunch of ballast to keep your equipment rooted to the ground under heavy loads. Whether you're measuring miles per gallon, gallons per hour or any other measure of fuel consumption, industrial operators should be every bit as interested in improving fuel economy as the trucker.
    21 Jul 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    In transition stage companies like Axion the path to a substantial revenue ramp is far more important than the revenue ramp itself. If you consider Tesla, it doesn't have a $14 billion market cap because it sold $562 million of products in Q1. It has a $14 billion market cap because the market believes it can grow to over $10 billion in revenue over the next few years. Investors are buying the path, not the historic results.

     

    Axion has three known potential paths today – BMW, NS and ePower. The clearest path is ePower, which is at least a couple months away from finishing the six cylinder version of its hybrid tractor and publishing fuel economy test results on the product it wants to sell. BMW and NS are both moving forward under cover of darkness. As a result there are no clear paths for the market to assess and everybody out there is scared. That leads to a strong presumption that all three potential paths will fail and the presumption won't change until one or more of the paths gets clearer.

     

    We're at a point where one of the three paths is likely to get much clearer this year. ePower is looking at a ramp rate of tens, hundreds and then thousands, but that won't be a credible path until they finish their work on the six cylinder upgrade and start placing trucks with customers. BMW won't be a credible path until they say something. The same holds true for NS. Right now we're like an old wooden roller coaster that's dragging a string of cars up that long and painfully slow incline. It's boring and everybody wants it to go faster. Sooner or later a path will become clear and when it does the ride will get real interesting real quickly.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Nathan, that is the million-dollar question. Presently, I don't think any source other than BMW could lead to significant revenue ramp before the need for another capital raise, but as JP points out, BMW is keeping us in the dark as to what models will use the PbC and what is the schedule for fleet testing and roll-out. NS and ePower won't contribute any meaninful sales until at least 2015 and there are a whole lot of hurdles for them to clear before that happens. So, without some good news from BMW this year, I think we are at least one capital raise away from having the clarity it will take to lift the stock price more than a few pennies.
    22 Jul 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I disagree.

     

    Completion of the ePower six cylinder upgrade in a timely manner will be more than enough to command attention from the trucking industry and where trucking goes the market will follow. Completion of the NS 999 and OTR locomotive with plans to advance to a statistically valid test fleet would have the same impact.

     

    Axion needs A PATH and any of the three will do the job nicely.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I tend to agree that ePower showing demand interest using a Cummins engine could be meaningful but I think that would carry weight if Cummins chimes in with some sort of PR supporting statement. Anytime Cummins says anything there are millions of ears listening. Even a little whimper from a Fortune 500 would lead people to Axion as only 1 of 2 things to buy into. The other market mover from ePower announcing would be speculation about trucking firms. IMHO, ePower, being private, is going to be looked at but with no real interest because there is nothing to buy into.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    JP. I don't doubt your reasons for enthusiasm, I just don't think they will kick in with full force before the next capital raise is needed. Real "demand interest" will only come after all 10 of the next gen trucks are on the road long enough to have substantial performance and reliability data. No doubt, a lot of interested eyes will be watching, but I don't think it will be a "clear path" to revenue ramp before 2015.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    DRich> If ePower introduces the six cylinder in a timely fashion and promptly books conditional orders for the first 1,000 trucks it will have to promptly firm up its supply chain. Do you think a conditional $21.5 million battery order for Axion will make a difference, particularly if several of ePower's customers are big public companies?

     

    You need to remember that ePower wants to build the first trucks, but then it wants to train its customers to do their own retrofits using kits supplied by ePower. That kind of business model can ramp far faster than it would if ePower wanted to do all the work itself.

     

    NGS> I disagree, but I also think that arguing timing at this point would be counter productive. I'm more than happy to let the future unfold before deciding what it will or won't be.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Sure I think it will make a difference. I just don't see it happening for at least another year. Call me a skeptic, but after watching this stock for the past 2 years and one delay after another (most no fault of Axion's), I think it is justified.

     

    My skepticism kept me from buying in above .50 in 2011 when everyone was saying 2012 was Axion's year. Now, it appears I still got in a year too early, thinking 2013 was the year. I'll believe it when I see it, but until then, , absent some good news from BMW, I don't see getting back above my cost basis before late 2014. In the meantime, I am not selling and may still be a buyer on the big dips.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... I don't agree with the need to fully demonstrate the trucks to completion as being a requirement. Particularly if ePower can build a waiting list showing interest. Visibility to revenue growth is the next step in Axion's development. I do believe that Axion has run itself so close to the wire that even a 1000 order list from ePower is going to need supporting declarations of some sort from a much larger players to make a difference to Axion unless Axion catches the attention of a more stable, longer term financing/investor base.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    John - I like the discussion going towards ePower and Axion, away from Tesla. However, what does the future PATH of Axion look like in comparison to what we know of Tesla (a successful Tesla, if that's possible), especially when we take Axion's looksee at a portion of it's PATH at a time.

     

    For instance,

     

    1a) Axion's ramp and cap with ePower retrofits first, then
    1b) self installed or
    1c) service provider retrofits, then toss in
    1d) OEM new trucks; then add the next PATH

     

    2a) for NS's yard and
    2b) OTR loco's plus
    2c) rest of US and
    2d) rest of world; then add in

     

    3a) BMW Europe and then
    3b) BMW US, followed by the
    3c) rest of the worlds S/S ICE's and the
    3d) various hybrids (and we can ignore for the present, unless we can't) the

     

    4a) power thirsty industrial cranes and other power hungry devices, plus

     

    5a) the more futuristic series hybrid aircraft; and so on; and if, finally

     

    6a) Powercube's future
    6b) on grid or
    6c) off grid)

     

    Point being: how about a near to undefined-far market cap study article for Axion potential with a faux comparison to Tesla. Who knows? Well, maybe you know.

     

    Either way, make it look like your crystal ball with authority w.r.t. Axion and PbC's.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    SA policy strongly discourages focus articles on sub-$1 stocks and while I've been able to get special dispensation a couple times, I would be very reluctant to try with Axion's price at current levels. Besides, I'm a former director and presumed to be biased, which means anything I write that looks like a fanboy piece will be promptly ignored, as it should be. I'm sure that kind of analysis will be forthcoming at some point, but I'll probably never write it.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    DR nothing yet
    22 Jul 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Understand.

     

    But, by the time you put it together we may be above $1 or you can hold off for the trigger point.

     

    Being a former director and being biased only strengthens the argument for you to analyze the scenarios and pen the article. The people in the know that appreciate your bias would be satisfied and the others can join Tesla.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I know. I'm running behind
    22 Jul 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    DR, (re: ePower) "no real interest because there's nothing to buy into"

     

    forgive me for lousy communication.

     

    I meant to say: nothing to buy into .................. yet
    22 Jul 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    In your wildest imagination believe Blackrock might come nose around?
    22 Jul 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    JP, is it fair to link a couple of your posts and say that some large number of ePower (conditional) orders may happen in as little as a few months?
    22 Jul 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    What on Earth is a "conditional order"? and what condition would it be tied to?
    22 Jul 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    ePower is getting a lot of attention from some very large players in the trucking industry because fuel consumption is such a huge issue. While ePower plans to build the first ten trucks with its own funds, I won't be surprised if competition a significant number of early adopters buy instead of leasing, particularly if that gets them a preferential place in line. If the performance numbers come anywhere close to expectations, I can foresee a long line forming very quickly, particularly if the orders are conditioned on proof of reliability and test fleet fuel economy.
    22 Jul 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Well, if that is the yet you mean, Axion can't wait for yet to become "Now". ePower won't become public anytime soon, so that is not a buy-in. Cummins is too big to have ePower move its needle but I might add a few shares just for grins.

     

    That leaves Axion, the motor supplier (which I forget who that is right now), the generator supplier (same memory problem) & trucking firms as potential buy-ins to the technology. All I'm saying is that Axion doesn't present itself to the market as a financially solid rock to invest in and requires some, even off-hand, support from somewhere more stable and larger than retail shareholders. I don't know or care where that comes from but the Axionista community would just get whacked by current financiers for showing support and would exhaust us one more time.
    22 Jul 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... An entity like Blackrock would do the trick for me. In the past, going in & out a few times it seems but at a measured pace, have made them a good investor. That's fine. I'm not a fan of the big Wall Street shops but PIPE flipping Axion doesn't need. I'd prefer a fund like David Gelbaum's that thinks this is worth $X.XX at a minimum and stands their ground, but that is a personal opinion.

     

    John has pointed out many times in the past that small companies rarely die from starvation. Dysentery, from the ability to waste cash, is far more prevalent but starvation is still a possibility. It is what I worry about.
    22 Jul 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    JP et. al - in some circles those "conditional" orders are sometimes called LOI's, Letter of Intent, not?

     

    In other words, ePower may or could start accepting LOI's from truckers as a way of getting in line for the retrofit conversions. ePower, could possibly even "sell" these LOI's should demand warrant. Not a bad idea, eh?

     

    ePower may even consider selling the LOI's and offer a refund upon completion of the retrofit to provide some up front monies, not? Legal? Well, yes, like progress payments, not?
    22 Jul 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    JP, I recall a VC and a 200 unit order or some such a couple yrs ago. Is that in play/relevant anymore?

     

    http://bit.ly/132UA5f
    22 Jul 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    That project encountered difficulties with one of the partners and is no longer relevant.
    22 Jul 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    Again,
    Oh great sages of the Western world..
    The battery handles the work, recharges rapid quick, and doesn't "wind down" despite constant discharge and recharge. Bullet proof in terms of weather issues, by comparison to other sources currently available.
    It's not cheap, but it's not constructed with exotic materials, and is mostly recyclable.. It's not sexy green, just practical green tech..
    So, it's a wonderful power source, looking for things to power. Because it's not just " plug n play", the battery requires a little work to reach a happy handshake with whatever it powers. BMW threw a lot of pitches at this baby, and baby hit them all over the park(sorry, Yankees vs Red Sox in late innings).
    That about wrap it up? I feel the need, the need for...more shares!
    22 Jul 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    VW's XL-1 2 cyl diesel going into production = 261 mpg

     

    http://yhoo.it/1dPi97R
    22 Jul 2013, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    News from BMW.

     

    Wonder who is supplying the batteries???

     

    http://on.wsj.com/13YPxdq
    22 Jul 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    This month is almost over, so you don't have long to wait to see what is inside.
    Dont you expect it to be Lithium?
    22 Jul 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Lithium-ion is the only sensible battery chemistry for the BMW i3. It's just not clear who the battery supplier will be.
    22 Jul 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    It IS LI. The supplier is yet unknown, though I am looking...
    22 Jul 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    RUN FOR COVER! ARCA actually RAISED an ASK! And it's not even 10:45 yet!

     

    Early action looking decent as VWAP matches 7/10 $0.155 (last time we were this high) regardless of a current sell imbalance 1:2.22.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    Noooooooo! I am trying to close out my other trades this week to buy more :(
    22 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Axionistaville may be the only place on the planet where the natives say "please don't let the price go up."
    22 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Just wait until next month when the PIPErs unload their next batch of shares. I don't think you missed the boat just yet.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Anyone that reads this concentrator for long knows we are avid tunnel builders. Light is scary.
    22 Jul 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1401) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the PIPErs are for sure going to unload next time. They may have figured this 3 month gap was the best time to lower the share price. Big time gap and little news expected. By September it could be a whole new dynamic.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    When is the next possible unload of financing shares?
    22 Jul 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The next share issuance will be an estimated prepayment on the September installment around the first of August.
    22 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!! JP
    22 Jul 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,
    Don't take this the wrong way, but for those of us who have been here a "few" years and have average prices that are 3-4x higher than the current stock price, we are hoping that the stock might "inch" up a little more.
    From someone who bought his last big bunch of stock after the 2012 financing, I can assure you, there will always be more stock to buy!
    22 Jul 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech ... Amen!
    22 Jul 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    Here's and interesting article on Seeking Alpha about growth in EV and Hybrid sales. I'm sure folks on this board will find plenty to disagree with.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Jul 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I didn't see much to disagree with. I think his battery demand and supply chain assumptions are a bit aggressive, but overall it was a pretty vanilla article.
    22 Jul 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    50 to 75 percent reductions in battery costs? How long has that song been sung? Recommending long position in Tesla?

     

    That sort of thing.
    22 Jul 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    105k share bid by ETRF at 15.99 cents just appeared. On the ask, it's three MMs lead by ATDF with 50k. Will be fun to see where this goes.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    ARCA behaving more smartly, probably come back in a bit later after they see how far it can go.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Concur. And it looks like BTIG is still on vacation. Nowhere to be seen.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I am seeing BTIG on the offer @ $.0811 and the ask @ $.2077.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, RB. Occasionally the TDAmer feed doesn't show all the MMs that are away from the best bid and ask. Anyway, BTIG remains far off, which is a nice change I noticed late last week. They've been one of the big sellers, judging by Level II.
    22 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    RB: I think you mean @bid .0811
    22 Jul 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    OR,

     

    Yes I did, thanks!
    22 Jul 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Is everyone holding their breath or something? AXPW is up 10 percent as I write this.
    22 Jul 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Yes, waiting for them to walk the ASK down!
    22 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    This biggest window between PIPE repymts is looking better and better.

     

    Hopefully, Tom Konrad and his clients are buying. ;^) From his recent article:

     

    "Disclosure: No position in the companies mentioned, but I may initiate a position in Axion Power in the course of researching the article, if I like what I find."
    22 Jul 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    Occam !

     

    Go ahead and breathe. The waiting is over ! ! !

     

    See my post below !
    22 Jul 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    EcoPbC? It's EcoFast and Economical.

     

    EcoVolt Power Announces First Commercial Shipment of Its Advanced EcoSmart(TM) Lead-Acid Batteries North American Roll Out With Distribution Partner Energy Battery Group Inc.

     

    http://bit.ly/18z2tZm
    -
    Manufacturing plant to create jobs in Chesapeake

     

    http://bit.ly/18z2sV7
    22 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Offer just went to .17.... shucks folks, I'm giddy!
    22 Jul 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    wake me up when it gets back over .30.
    22 Jul 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    OR: didn't you mean "giddy up"! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    HOW I *** KNOW *** AXION IS GOING TO THE MOON ------ STARTING FIRST THING TOMORROW MORNING ! ! !

     

    SWMBO always forces me to go to "socially significant movies". Drama. Messages of social significance for the future of mankind.
    You know the ones: Ghandi, Elephant Man, My Left Foot, Out of Africa, Out of Biafra, Out of Lower Manibia, any piece of garbage made in Sweden, you know what I'm talking about. The kind of movie you're forced to see when you'd rather be having a root canal.

     

    I, on the other hand like progressive sophisticated intellectual stuff, like:
    Independence Day, Dirty Harry, Tremors, Gladiator, Battleship, Cowboys vs. the Aliens, Alien vs. Predator, etc. You know. The ones that are uplifting exciting, and leave you with the sense that mankind is moving down the correct path. Problem is, I have to go alone. Got a buddy I go with from time-to-time. We saw Rocky 37 1/2 together. . . . . but usually I go alone.

     

    Get dragged to all the top mentioned drama grinders and made to endure chatter over what "lovely movies those are !" Or "Didn't Clara Snodgrass perform magnificently in her portrayal of a deaf mute whose life savings were wiped out trying to save the starving left-handed women living in something-or-other-Stan?"

     

    And of course I have to be polite to her friends. So when one of them inquires, "VW, what did you think of the movie?" I know what's really being asked is, "So, VW, how did you enjoy this vomit you were forced to watch......... and stay awake for........ and remember your wife is listening, so if you make me cry with your answer or even make me furrow my brow, you're in deep deep doo-doo and could wake up with what you consider valuable body parts missing ?" I know how to answer. I gotta do what I'm forced to do.

     

    But if I wanna take the darling Little Woman to the Visualite for a "godfather" marathon what feedback do I get? Fuhgetaboutit ! And you call that justice? Anyway ......... . . . . . .

     

    An hour ago, SWMBO came in and said, " VW, Sharon and I have decided we want to go see a movie tonight. Her husband too. It'll be all four of us, and Sharon & I have already bought the tickets ! Tonight, all four of us are going to go see.......... ( Wait for it. Wait for it. WAIT FOR IT ! ! ! )

     

    "The Lone Ranger" ! ! !

     

    Yes, you see right, gentle readers and my good friends. My wife wants me to go with her to see "THE LONE RANGER" ! !

     

    Now, SWMBO and I have been allies for decades. Ever since I slipped a pill in her drink, raced to the church and got the "I-Dos" done and the "I now pronounce you....." business complete and she awakened only to learn it was too late to un-do (to coin a phrase). . . Ever since then I've had to endure drama on the screen. And never . Never. N-E-V-E-R has she asked me to take her to a cowboy movie.

     

    This is a message from the Inter-Galactic Intelligence Life Search Force. Just for us Axionistas. We have been given a sign. So. All you whiners and snivellers and all you guys with . . . . . .limp......... um.... tendencies: First thing in the morning you back your truck up and rake in all the AXPW you can manage. The train is leaving the station!

     

    I'm gonna go take a shower. I took a shower last Wednesday but I'm gonna take another anyway.

     

    HI-HO-SILVER ! ! ! Awa-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-aaaa...
    22 Jul 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Good luck on the Lone Ranger - it's sposed to be stinko!

     

    So she'll probably never take you to another cowboy movie again, even "The Shootist" or "True Grit" or ...

     

    If you grew up on the same Lone ranger I did, I suspect the new modern "spin" (heavy on the darkness, a la the Batman ones) will be applied, and you'll be disillusioned.

     

    All the darn screenwriters and directors these days think they're shrinks and (mis-)analyze the crap out of the old 'Boomers' childhood heroes.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Jul 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    HTL, that's what's such a shame.

     

    Hollywood is bound and determined to destroy heroes. They wouldn't know what a hero even is. They believe that because they are dark and dreary that............... nevermind.

     

    Yes, I heard this movie is a real clinker. But that's the beauty of it! She can't complain......... :>)

     

    And no, she'll probably not want to go see another cowboy movie. But at her given rate of cowboy movie requests when will be her scheduled next request?? I'll be dead anyway. :>)

     

    BTW, I have the remastered "Lonesome Dove". Best cowboy movie ever made. 'course "Silverado" ain't bad. Nor "True Grit" (the original. Nor "Tombstone". Nor ..............
    22 Jul 2013, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >VW ... Go see RED2. It's got the romance stuff as well as lots of death intermixed with a ridiculous plot (?) but it is funny.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Seriously OT:........ You GO, VW !

     

    "Lonesome Dove" and "Silverado"! Great modern cowboy movies.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Since you went into mini-series with Lonesome Dove, it would be a crying shame to overlook Deadwood.
    22 Jul 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    VW,
    I like your inter-galactic message theory. Another would be that she thinks Johnny Depp is cute! ;-P
    That being said, never look a gift horse in the mouth...especially when there's a cowboy on his back.
    22 Jul 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    LOVED Deadwood! SWMBO also loved it. Believe it or don't.

     

    We have Netflix (DVD service) and we watch boatloads of series. I was stunned she liked "Deadwood", the most obscene, vulgar, and graphic western ever put on television. Also, BTW remarkably accurate.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    RED2 is now on my list. It's also at the theater. I'm goin !
    23 Jul 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    A couple of cult movies that many have not seen but everybody should see are "Boondock Saints" and its sequel.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Lone Ranger Review

     

    1) SWMBO liked it. Said she'd be willing to go to another western in 2014 ( ! ! ! ! )

     

    2) Not dark at all. In fact, more like a cartoon. Too silly for me, but I had fun because You-Know-Who had fun.

     

    3) I really could have done without carnivorous rabbits.

     

    Up another penny today?
    23 Jul 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    I like anything with the Big Yin in it!
    23 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    And they are not going to be carrying the hotel load w/ no LAB on dis' here kid. It's comin' like a freight train. Slow but SAS.

     

    Bosch stop-start technology awarded

     

    "The way the enhanced start-stop mechanism works is as simple as it is clever: as soon as the driver steps off the gas pedal, the clutch opens electronically. This works via the automatic transmission, or in the case of manual transmission via the Bosch e-clutch. The internal-combustion engine is stopped, and the vehicle coasts without any engine-braking effect.

     

    During any one journey, 30% of the time is spent coasting on average. The new function brings about a fuel saving of roughly 10%. In more powerful engines with greater displacement, the fuel saving is even greater. "

     

    http://bit.ly/11am3pa
    22 Jul 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    I remember growing up and having a 3 cylinder Saab with "freewheeling". It did the same thing and I got pinged during my driving test for "riding the clutch".
    22 Jul 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    GT,
    DKW had a similar configuration with the 3 cylinder 2 stroke.
    22 Jul 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    I think the price up today is the JP bump...let's see over the next few days.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, I am hopeful that it is a combination of things. Investors made nervous by the PIPE financing and drop in price have sold off. We have been getting some good news: BMW wanting Axion to forge a partnership with one or more battery manufacturers, the confirmation of NSC progress in their sustainability report, and JP's elaborations on the plans and progress of ePower. These things have not been happening in a vacuum. Word is beginning to spread that something is on the verge of coming to fruition.

     

    We have also just come off a new low. I have been looking at the historical pps graphs. The new low a week or so ago would make for a nice inflection point as Axion's pps begins to rapidly rise.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Bringing attention to da' tech.

     

    Stop-start car study in full flow

     

    "Two organisations from different ends of the motoring industry, Castrol and Tom Tom, are combining to build a report on "stop-start" driving patterns in 50 major world cities.

     

    Due to be published in September, the report builds on previous studies that claim we can experience as many as 18,000 stop-starts every year. The pioneering new study will aim to look at different regions, using Tom Tom's precise travel and traffic information, to analyse driver behaviour across the entire road network.

     

    Gareth Bracchi, senior development technologist at Castrol commented that stop-start and idling traffic is important as it affects journey times and causes engine wear.

     

    He added: "By partnering with TomTom, we'll be able to accurately measure the stop-start average per kilometer within defined city limits, discover what cities have the heaviest traffic, and show which city's drivers are most at risk of damaging stop-start wear." This could have a knock-on effect on car insurance and breakdown cover costs per region.

     

    The 50 key cities and regions across the world where traffic conditions will be monitored, include North America (New York), Australia (Sydney), Asia (Beijing, Bangkok, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur), Russia (Moscow), Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) and Europe (London, Istanbul) and Hong Kong."

     

    http://bit.ly/11amwYC
    22 Jul 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Tom Konrad asked me to publish my latest ePower Instablog on his website at http://bit.ly/yE6bt4.

     

    It's up now and may bring some additional eyes.
    22 Jul 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Did Tom Konrad publish his AXPW article yet? If so, is there a link por favor?
    22 Jul 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    OR, I looked today and didn't find it. He was targeting publishing the article sometime this week.
    22 Jul 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    roger, thanks
    22 Jul 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Vanner Forms Partnership with Bergstrom for Cross-Promotion of Products

     

    http://bit.ly/19ec47c
    22 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Energy Storage: FERC's Ruling Could Jumpstart Big Batteries

     

    "If the price of grid-scale energy storage fell to zero dollars per megawatt-hour, regulators and utilities would still be puzzled in how to deploy the boon of energy storage.

     

    That's because storage doesn't fit neatly into the electrical utility's regulatory universe of generation, distribution, and load -- or the utility rate recovery structure.

     

    But that regulatory uncertainty is starting to clear."

     

    "That opportunity for storage got bigger yesterday with the issuance of Order 784. It pits fast batteries, flow-batteries and flywheeels against slower gas- or coal-fired plants in the ancillary services market.
    ------
    "FERC Order 784 is a huge step forward for energy storage, as it will help to open ancillary services markets for storage project developers. Also, it expands FERC Order 755 pay-for-performance requirements to ensure that speed and accuracy, two attributes where storage excels, is considered when utilities purchase regulation service for transmission. Finally, the new accounting and reporting rules introduced in this order will help utilities achieve rate recovery for energy storage equipment," wrote Janice Lin, Managing Partner, Strategen Consulting and Co-Founder and Executive Director of the California Energy Storage Alliance in an email to GTM.

     

    Here's some relevant language from the the ruling:

     

    The Commission is also requiring each public utility transmission provider to add to its OATT [open access transmission tariff] Schedule 3a statement that it will take into account the speed and accuracy of regulation resources in its determination of reserve requirements for Regulation and Frequency Response service [...]."

     

    http://bit.ly/13UR39k
    22 Jul 2013, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, 3 cheers!
    22 Jul 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, I'm not a big proponent of Axion making it in the grid support market because "the cards are loaded". But it's something that was worthy of a post in light of the fact that WTB is taking a mild break. Or I missed it?
    22 Jul 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    God bless iindelco. Always on target. Whilst we clowns are wandering down a dry gulch, iindelco is raising value.

     

    Thanks ! .
    23 Jul 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Wow, I've finally caught up on my concentrator reading. And it only took two hours of non-stop reading! Ah well, time to go to bed and get ready to read the next 100 posts that will be here before I have a chance to read again. ;-)
    22 Jul 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    Variation on energy storage and trains, this one uses mass like pumped hydro!
    Maybe if they replaced some "dumb" mass with PbC they could improve what must be a relatively response time....

     

    http://bit.ly/14C6lWV
    "ARES’ technology uses heavy rail cars that are pushed to the top of a grade using excess power from renewable energy plants or when electricity demand is low. Then, when the wind drops, the sun stops shining, or electricity demand rises, the rail cars are released back down the hill, generating electricity through regenerative braking."
    23 Jul 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    That's a neat idea and should have lower operating costs than other gravity based systems I've seen. While the response time will be on the slow side, round trip energy efficiency of 86% is pretty good. The economics might work if they can cycle the system frequently enough.
    23 Jul 2013, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    DAveT - I would doubt if ARES is "cheaper" than dynamic pumped hydro where downstream water from existing dams (say 18 of them on the Columbia and Snake Rivers in the Pacific NW with capacity for some 30 Gw) is pumped back upstream over the dam using variable speed pumping stations connected directly to variable wind or solar generated nearby (say from 6-10 Gw of already-installed wind capacity along the lower Columbia - for which they are currently constructing transmission towers to wheel the power to CA, etc.).

     

    Rerunning the water thru the existing dams (eg., recharging the existing huge reservoir behind the existing dam) with a few pumps and some pipe, while getting perfectly regulated output power from the dam seems SWEET.

     

    I wonder where the problem is? Bonneville Power never answered that question.

     

    PS - Dave, if 8% grade elevated rail cars work, then all along the Columbia River Gorge we could install thousands of 1000' vertical elevators using cable and save the rails and provide much more storage going straight up instead of using 8% grades. We could develop a bunch of Grandfather Clock sets of weights, and wind them up when the wind blows thru the Gorge, and discharge accordingly. And this would not bother the fishies in the Columbia (I think - we'll have to get Uncles assessment of this).
    23 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    njb: Building dams tends to be expensive and annoys anyone who gets flooded, loses water flow etc? So maybe "cheaper" is not the only criteria here.
    I haven't thought about the energy storage "size", but is presumably magnitudes less than any sensible size of a dam, so more appropriate for working "coupled" to a solar / wind generator system?
    23 Jul 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
     
    Dave - the dams are already built; they exist: 30GW worth; some 18 dams.

     

    The other point is, about 6 of 10 GW of wind ALSO already exists.

     

    Take a look:

     

    http://bit.ly/15FDfCG
    23 Jul 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    07/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hr).
    # Trds: 147, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 39499, Vol 738566, AvTrSz: 5024
    Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1700, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1600
    # Buys, Shares: 59 364536, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1614
    # Sells, Shares: 84 352005, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1586
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 22025, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1593
    Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (49.4% “buys”), DlyShts 146751 (19.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 41.69%

     

    Note the smaller decline 7/19 to 7/22 in the VWAP and 85% price. This is the first sign that we may have begun nearing a bottom in the expected share issue prices. It's not quite there yet, but at last it's working towards it.

     

    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
    07/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302

     

    Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6.

     

    You may recall I've been using the phrase “reducing weakness” or a similar phrase for some time (a week or so?). I had commented a few days ago that it wouldn't taker much to produce a signal of a move up coming. Well we're not quite there yet but in my newer version below you'll note only one small negative number. I've mentioned in the past that I'm gaining more confidence in the newer version and we know the original is a bit “flaky”.

     

    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: -5.0%, -7.8%, 1.0%, -0.7%, 0.1%, -0.1%
    5-day change: 10.6%, -100.2%, -21.3%, -31.0%, -62.3%, -68.8%
    5-day rate of change change: 38.0%, 149.8%, -19.0%, -54.3%, 32.6%, -55.5%

     

    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: 10.0%, -0.9%, 8.1%, 10.8%, 9.1%, 33.1%
    5-day change: 27.7%, 14.8%, 17.9%, 43.9%, 40.1%, 32.9%
    5-day rate of change change: 57.6%, 117.0%, 37.2%, 83.1%, 78.4%, 66.0%

     

    Yesterday I said “The other thing of note, although being a Friday maybe not so significant, was that we seem to have an attempt at price recovery going on”. Today, I think we can call it significant as our high, VWAP and close were +7.59%, +3.70% and 11.70% respectively. What could it be, what could it be ... Hm.

     

    Aha! As I commented in the concentrator today, ARCA actually raised their offer price at least once today! Good on 'em! I first saw them on the ask at 9:38 for $0.157 and thought they were doing the usual at 10:16 when the ask dropped to $0.156. But at 10:29, hallelujah! They had moved to $0.158. When I peeked at 11:06, they were not in the queue at all and when I checked at 11:28 they were back at $0.158 again – they didn't reduce their offer upon return. When I checked again at 13:20 they were absent and at 13:43 they were in second place between ATDF's $0.164 and NITE's $0.168. They were generally “well behaved” in their selling for the rest of the day too, not taking extraordinary measures to battle ATDF for the top spot on the sell side and often just stepping away.

     

    Anyway, I consider their behavior today to be more “market aware” and more conducive to the rational “negotiation” of prices seen in a healthy market. Let's hope this continues.

     

    As usual, ATDF was contesting the head of the offers all day long and pretty much dominated the buy-side bids. I suspect this explains the continued lower daily short sales, likely due to intra-broker trades and/or ATDF maintaining a small short-term long position from which to sell.

     

    The “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” was around the lower- to mid-range of what is normally seen, indicating that selling pressure was reduced. I think this is saying folks were not as frequently stepping around the best offer to hit the bid. With ATDF so often best on both sides, suggesting a low percentage of daily short sales would be normal, the “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” would likely be higher if a lot of stepping around from other MMs selling was going on. Of course, this is only an inference by me based on lots of watching and assumptions, which might not be valid.

     

    The average buy percentages seem to be stabilizing with a very slight, and maybe not continuing, bias towards improvement. We'll just have to watch and see what the trend is going forward. My newer inflection points suggest we might see the buy percentage averages strengthen going forward.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jul 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    "The market for electric industrial vehicles is already large because, by law, forklifts have to be electric when used indoors. Little growth remains in this market but outdoors almost all earthmoving and lifting vehicles use the conventional internal combustion engine. That is about to change dramatically because hybrid electric versions reduce cost of ownership and exposure to price hikes with fossil fuels. Hybrids increasingly perform better as well, with more power from stationary, ability to supply electricity to other equipment and other benefits including less noise and pollution. On the other hand, airports, often government owned or funded, are under great pressure to finish converting their Ground Support Equipment GSE to pure electric versions both on and off the tarmac partly using federal grants."

     

    http://bit.ly/12J4WZb

     

    Still a lot of untapped opportunities.
    23 Jul 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    A German solar battery startup comes to America

     

    "The battery system can control home appliances, and it’s developing software for controlling heating and lighting systems. The company’s energy storage systems come in different battery capacities for residential and business customers. It’s targeting the residential market with a 10 kWh system, for which it charges $18,000. A 60 kWh system costs $75,000."

     

    http://bit.ly/1bbY67y
    23 Jul 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Buenos días!!!

     

    New Investor presentation:

     

    http://bit.ly/13XrQeu

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    23 Jul 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Great find Carlos!

     

    Sounds like Axion is doing something that might support share price ... or another capital raise down the road. I prefer to think it's the former.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: NS-999 featured too! Does this mean the "wraps are off"?
    23 Jul 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic Carlos. I would love to hear a presentation by Vani or TG with detailed commentary and response to questions.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Presentation is very tight lipped on BMW, but states on slide 25 "Began new initiatives with two major Lead--Acid battery manufacturers."
    23 Jul 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... page 25 seems to have some meat that may not have bee sufficiently chewed upon in this forum.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    See if you can find the mistake in first bullet on slide 5.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... So, the way it trades and the market valuation on it could make people believe it really won't become a " Real" company until

     

    "Reverse merger to public company December 2013"
    [line 2, Slide 5]

     

    The Pinocchio of the Battery Industry

     

    Edit: I wonder if someone ought to tell Axion about it or just let them take it on the road to see if the audience isn't asleep & takes notice.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    ding ding ding, we have a winner. Yeah, I think they ought to fix that.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    and it's Fisker, not Fiskar ;)
    23 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... All right. I'll email Axion about the error, but I'm sure by now it will join the 10's of thousands of others pointing this out.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    There is also an error on page 4.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >FPA ... Your turn. One email is my limit.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I don't think they can fix that one until they get a replacement. The danger is the resignation occurred well before the presentation publication date.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mac325
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Per the earlier comments from JP regarding the NS RTG program, PbC use in construction cranes is mentioned on slide 23.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Technically, since Trego doesn't leave his CFO position until August, the presentation is true. BUT, it's not the WHOLE truth.

     

    I suppose better to have slop than starve.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Link doesn't work for me. Using Firefox, I get an error message reading, "This XML file does not appear to have any style information associated with it. The document tree is shown below."

     

    Same result using Chrome.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    Nice doc, would be nicer if they had sent the presentation link to the email subscriber list.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    hello, this link isn´t working. csan someone post the correct link?
    23 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    The link was working this AM in chrome on windoze, but now gives a message "PDF failed to load."

     

    The site had a download restriction script, so I could not save it to my local drive or post it to Evernote when I read it this morning.

     

    EDIT: this link works from Axion website: http://bit.ly/v9fnMY
    23 Jul 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Am I blind or is there no reference to the trucking apu market?
    23 Jul 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Slide 23 left column. " Applications include regenerative breaking, electric propulsion, and providing power to auxiliary loads (Park HVAC, Smart Park, etc.) when the engine is off."
    24 Jul 2013, 04:12 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    Thanks for that. I guess I was hoping that it would have made page 10. Having it buried in the 3rd bullet point doesn't of the one slide doesn't have me as optimistic for short term revenues. I was hoping that this would be a fast to market sector.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I don't assume that APUs will be a slow to market sector because current batteries have very short lives in APU duty. OEMs are OEMs no matter the industry, and they will take their own sweet time testing the PbC before making a decision. But it takes far less time to test a battery when the competition has a two year life expectancy than it does if the competition has a four or five year life expectancy.

     

    Always remember the sex with a gorilla analogy. You're done when they say you're done and not a minute sooner.
    24 Jul 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Plus, as far as I know, the APU is not necessary to ensure that the truck starts.
    24 Jul 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Stefan- I believe you are right. I just hope that if they are working with on APU mfg they are working with 2, 3 or 4. If I am an APU mfg and I know AXPW is working/talking with my competitors my testing would be accelerated.

     

    Its been very quiet on this front for a long while.
    24 Jul 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    It's been very quiet on many fronts for too long. Given the penchant of management to make a big deal about new "initiatives" and then letting them die silently in the night, management needs to regularly be asked direct questions on their initiatives and progress.
    24 Jul 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Now:

     

    Tom Konrad in Forbes with AXION POWER.

     

    http://onforb.es/12fgMzn

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    23 Jul 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Carlos. You get five gold stars today! The pps hit .19 and is now at .185. Clear the launch pad!
    23 Jul 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    All: I just tried to pull the link down again and didn't work! I didn't save a copy.

     

    Anybody else have a problem trying to pull it again?

     

    Says no XML stuff.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Jul 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    It's been pulled.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Try this link.

     

    http://onforb.es/16XgfOE
    23 Jul 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    They're probably editing it to fix the errors.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    That's the link to the Konrad article.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    2500% increase in RFP's. Sales is doing something :)
    23 Jul 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    We need Press Releases. Sales are doing something, but that something needs to be aired OUT! :)
    25 Jul 2013, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • Charlieburg
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Konrad article on Forbes...
    23 Jul 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    I find it interesting that when I first started reading Konrad's article the site reported that it had 332 views. By the time I finished reading the article, the site reported that it had 709 views. Looks like there are more than a few people still interested in Axion Power.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Konrad's article now has 5073 views.
    23 Jul 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Let's calm the celebrations - Tom still thinks to sell at .17. Personally, I don't find worth in trying to time the jump in stock price. At .17 if I had more dry powder I'd be all over this stock.
    23 Jul 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I talked to Tom and told him I disagreed with his conclusion because Axion's float is over 100 million shares and average daily volume without considering the OTC double count is less than 500,000 shares. That means any significant incremental selling can only serve to drive the price down in the short term and exacerbate the problematic aspects of the financing."

     

    He replied that Axion was one of those cases where a good choice for the individual is not a good choice for the crowd, or investors as a whole. He also said he'd discuss investing strategies in a second Axion article within the next few days.

     

    On balance I thought the article was incredibly bullish on the company and the technology but its clear that the recent financing scares him.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2103) | Send Message
     
    Time to be greedy when others are scared?
    23 Jul 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    >On balance I thought the article was incredibly bullish on the >company and the technology but its clear that the recent financing >scares him.

     

    Exactly. But stay tuned.

     

    It sounds like Tom talked to both ePower and Granville. I wonder if he has seen the investor presentation Carlos posted this morning?
    23 Jul 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Happy to see this new push by the company.

     

    Not sure how Axion should handle Trego's CFO departure, but it also seems that should be addressed differently on slide 5.

     

    My belief is that portions of this presentation were probably prepared after the the Granville conversation with Konrad as this article would bring a lot of new eyes to the Axion website and a 2011 investor presentation would have been unacceptable.

     

    Edit: As mentioned above, it would appear one of the most important new pieces of information is that they began new initiatives with two major lead-acid manufacturers. What do we think that means?

     

    A new deal with East Penn ... or an additional manufacturer as the result of BMW or ...
    23 Jul 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    Any way you slice it that financing deal was not something to smile about. Can't imagine how they couldn't do better than that with everything else I've look at again and again, but it is what it is.
    23 Jul 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... The latter. It wouldn't be East Penn for automotive either. The good or bad to come from Axion setting up additional production lines within a manufacturing partner will only come when we see how it is structured and find out what Axion has gotten or given.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    DRich - I don't see why they necessarily have to be new initiatives for automotive.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    John - I am confused by this statement:

     

    "That means any significant incremental selling can only serve to drive the price down in the short term and exacerbate the problematic aspects of the financing."

     

    Isn't that the current problem succinctly stated and why Konrad recommends a sell at .17? The PIPErs will cause the incremental selling and drive the price down in the short term thereby exacerbating the problematic aspects of the financing.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... I guess they don't necessarily need to be automotive but it is the only industry that we know is getting close to a design win (?) where it makes sense. The other would be an explosion in PowerCube sales and that could be of interest to East Penn. Depends on what you view as likely. All the other avenues in sales, at least to me, would be better served by leveraging the capacity in New Castle until it is backlogged. Trucks & trains aren't large enough to warrant interest from a battery OEM yet.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> With its historically limited trading volume, there isn't enough market depth to support heavy selling by the PIPE investors and heavy selling by the Axionista base. So while a few individuals might be able to sell today and buy their positions back in a couple months at a slightly better price, that strategy can't work if more than a small percentage of the stockholder base were to decide it's a good plan.

     

    The current 20-day average volume is around 500,000 shares before the double count. That works out to 250,000 shares leaving the hands of sellers and entering the hands of buyers. I think we have to assume that at least half of the sell side volume is coming from the PIPErs but the rest is coming from the retail base. So if you have a bunch of retail investors who decide "I'll just sell today and buy it back later" the sell side supply might jump from 250,000 shares to 375,000 or 500,000 or heaven knows what. If supply rises sharply without offsetting demand, the only thing the price can do is fall to a point where supply and demand are back in balance.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Stef, one apparently can't view the new investor presentation on Axion's website. Tried to do so after I encountered display error using Carlos's link and was invited to sign up for investor mailings from the company (which I did long ago).
    23 Jul 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    D-inv -

     

    Go to the investor tab on the Axion website. Still seems to work for me. Although the two old presentations from 2011 and the Lead Acid conference have been taken down.

     

    Interestingly, the BMW car has been removed from the presentation as well. I wonder if Axion took some flak for that ...
    23 Jul 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    That is what I did, Stef. I went to the investor tab, clicked on the presentation link and was rewarded with an invitation to sign up for investor emails.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Public companies typically require at least an e-mail address before visitors can download things like investor presentations. The reason is that the SEC wants companies to make sure that people who review detailed materials will also have access to and notice of future material changes. That's why Axion sends out e-mail notifications of all its filings.

     

    If you've changed computers recently or deleted cookies the Axion website may not recognize you. So it's easiest to simply provide your e-mail address and trust their database management program to avoid multiple mailings.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I don't think there was heaving selling by PIPErs and the Axionista base (some capitulation). However if that assumption is correct, the PIPErs still drove the price down to .13. If there was determined selling by both camps, then it would be look out below. Or am I mistaken?

     

    Ultimately, I think the biggest worry is not whether Axion will be successful long term, but whether current stockholders will basically get flushed in the process.

     

    I am battling with this consideration in making a determination to increase my position or just hold what I have. Depending on my calendar, I am planning to go to the annual meeting and my take away from the annual meeting in conjunction with the outcome of my FOIA appeal will likely determine how I will proceed.
    23 Jul 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I believe selling has most likely been balanced, with about half the sell side volume coming from the PIPErs and half coming from the retail base. In the days of the big uglies, they had a heavier hand on the sell button and my FINRA short data indicates they accounted for about 2/3 of sell side volume, which means the retail base only accounted for about 1/3.

     

    What I *think* we're seeing is heavier selling from the retail base because a relatively small percentage of holders is afraid of the financing and wants to watch things unfold from the sidelines. When that "fear selling" is added to the recurring selling by the PIPErs, the cumulative pressure is more than the market can stand and that leads to price declines.

     

    If the retail base stabilizes and gets back to more normal trading activity the price should climb in response to the decreased sell-side pressure. If the retail base starts running for the exits, it will get ugly and the fear talk will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
    23 Jul 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    DRich - True enough. My thought process was that they have been stating for years in CCs that they have had testing programs with various automotive manufacturers and have mentioned some kind of other testing with some railroad companies and now trucking companies.

     

    Given that nothing besides the orders for NS and ePower have come to fruition, I don't know how to evaluate the statement.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... Ah, yes ... other testing programs. Microscopic revenue streams and even if/when they do become products in the market it will be some considerable time before demand would outstrip New Castle capacity. The good thing is the margins would be much higher than selling to BMW and so making those margins in-house is the way to go. At least until, ex-Auto, the yearly demand exceeds 600k (I think that's right .... what was that number?). Then Axion could revert New Castle back to R&D prototyping and specialty batches or for other form factors and product improvement.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    DRich - I agree completely it makes sense to keep the higher margin revenue lines in house.

     

    My issue is after trying to read into words that aren't there for the better part of 2-3 years with Axion - unless it says two new initiatives with two large lead acid for automotive - I personally am inclined to want to ask the question directly.

     

    Either way, I am happy to see the new presentation.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    I thought their ultimate goal was to be mostly an electrode supplier. To make that goal, they will definitely need to be working with battery manufacturers to have them make batteries with PbC electrodes.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... It is Axion's business model to become an electrode supplier only. It is just that Axion's product markets are not big enough to interest a battery OEM to manufacture for them and Axion knows this. When customers expand beyond a handful, so may production numbers or more really large consumers appear. Until then making 1000 here & 100 there is best served internally. Mr. Granville has said this is how it has to be for some time even as it is not what he wants to do.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> The equity markets respond to clear paths to revenue long before the revenue is realized. That's why Tesla has a $14 billion market capitalization with $2 billion in annualized revenue. The stock price has nothing to do with current performance and everything to do with expected future performance.

     

    Axion's problem today is that none of the paths are clear. BMW, NS and ePower are all looking good, but the big boys haven't signed contracts yet and ePower is still developing its system. I see a number of things in progress that could change the clarity of the path overnight, but until the path is clearer the market response will probably be subdued.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    NGS - It is. However, as I understand it, Axion would like to be an electrode supplier to lower margin industries while keeping higher margin industries in house until they meet the capacity of their plant.
    23 Jul 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    From page 23:

     

    "Norfolk Southern order for NS999 switcher locomotive rebuild will be completed before the end of the year (with testing of long string management at PSU and NS proceeding)"

     

    Once again, the wording leaves the exact meaning in doubt (start of field testing vs completion of it and ready for reorder), but this seems to match NS' recent Sustainability Report comment regarding 999 timing. On the other hand, it does not match Granville's comment in the last conf call about the 999 being a summer 2013 event.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    re NS999 timing, I think we should probably give a certain weighting bias to the entity owning the switcher and not the guy with the batteries.

     

    Also, language in these reports is of course deliberately crafted to leave ambiguity where the path ahead is likely to throw up the unexpected. Under promise etc.
    23 Jul 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    I agree wholeheartedly, but remind you that the entity owning the switcher said this in its 2013 Sustainability Report that was published about a week ago:

     

    "In 2013, we plan to roll out the next generation NS 999, outfitted with a bank of more technologically advanced hybrid lead-carbon batteries developed by industry partner Axion Power International.

     

    In addition to NS 999, we are continuing work on a prototype battery-powered road locomotive that would move freight over long distances.

     

    We are optimistic that our latest efforts will provide a foundation for development of affordable battery-powered locomotives."
    23 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    "” PbC batteries require less complicated battery management, ”

     

    Tom I understand that this sentence is not correct as I understand that Axion’s PbC battery requires much more complicated battery management due to what many have called or labeled the PbC Voltage drop. Meaning, while it charges quickly, it discharges quickly too, and the voltage quickly drops as it does so. At least that is what I recall, if you have different information please do share it.

     

    Simply put, while a “
    normal” battery steadily discharges at 12 v then drops dead rather quickly, the PbC discharges rapidly from 14 v to 9 volt then 6 to say 3, it does not maintain a steady discharge.

     

    So if I have that wrong it would be important to me, please do advise.
    Tom could you get us a little information on the voltage drop and whether or not you think this is an issue or a complication ?

     

    You are of course aware, the Axion PbC battery is not a drop in replacement for any other battery.

     

    Meaning a VRLA or AGM or LI or even the A123 could all be replacements for each other. But the PbC is NOT – I understand in large part due to the voltage drop.

     

    So I think the PbC is much more complicated then meets the eye. Imagine the truck breaks down in Arizona and there are no Axion batteries around and it has to be shipped.

     

    I understand They cannot just install a replacement battery, it has to be PbC and due to the complications it may have to be an Axion representative or epower representative or someone specifically trained. Not an easy issue, for distribution and training of technicians.

     

    Well I for one enjoyed the article and look forward to the follow up."

     

    This was a comment on the article Mr Konrad wrote, was wondering if it was the case about the Pbc as I thought it was the king of the string.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    The OhMy parrot. lol
    23 Jul 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Gee,
    It didn't take OMY long to show up and start the negative spin. The writing style is so obvious, you can see through it after only a few lines.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Ryan> Battery management refers to keeping the individual batteries in a string or array in balance. The voltage drop you mentioned is not handled by the battery management system. The work of compensating for changes in string voltage with deep discharges is handled by the inverters and other control electronics. While it used to be a big deal, it's not anymore.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, It's gotta be either a job of some sort or a sickness. Or both.

     

    Yes, The writing style is quite unique. I laughed when I read an article recently which had some content on Axion, had a bunch of comments removed for having different posting names but a common URL address. This note was displayed right after an OhMy post. Imagine that! lol
    23 Jul 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    It's interesting to me that OMY is using the name Alexa Johanson for Konrad's article. I wonder if this is true, and finally proves my belief that OMY is a woman. Not that it matters, but we've often speculated.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, OhMy, or however it's spelled, uses many aliases. Both to prevent paths baxk to other areas where she posts and to be self supportive. Like when I caught her during the name change to Stranger... What a joker.
    23 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Notice the Paul DeMasi comments? He has been on several CC IIRC.

     

    Edit: That is omy showing his/her ignorance!
    23 Jul 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    Sure like what is happening with CPST.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    "BMW has completed third party testing on its prototypes, but does not want to adopt the technology if Axion is its sole supplier. With an introduction from BMW, Axion is working with at least one major battery manufacturer to allow it to be a second manufacturer for BMW."

     

    Interesting that this comment is seems to be directly contradictory to EB's comment that the third party testing company would not be testing PbCs.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    "Most investors don’t seem to understand this, which is why Axion seems to be up today, despite my article. But honestly, if I could borrow the stock to short, I might. But I’d cover at any hint of good news."

     

    ouch ...
    23 Jul 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    "Interesting that this comment is seems to be directly contradictory to EB's comment that the third party testing company would not be testing PbCs"

     

    EB's comments were made in regard to the battery testing company that shipped batteries back to Axion, around the time we were to believe that the 3rd party testing was done. He said this, because he believed that the company in question wasn't set up to test PbC type batteries. There are two possible answers. 1) He was incorrect in this assumption or 2) There was another company testing the PbC batteries that we don't know about.
    I tend to believe the answer is 1.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Interesting Tom Konrad reply to a comment on his article today:

     

    "Re: Selling – that’s what the next article will be about. The short version is that just because the business may take off does not mean that current shareholders will reap the benefits. [ouch--even though this has been mentioned here many times as perhaps the #1 risk, still hurts to see this in print by someone outside our hope system]

     

    Most investors don’t seem to understand this, which is why Axion seems to be up today, despite my article. But honestly, if I could borrow the stock to short, I might. [double ouch] But I’d cover at any hint of good news." [a little better]
    23 Jul 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    Why would BMW and or NS RR not be inclined to help out AXPW by putting up say $10m each in exchange for shares?

     

    I'm back in.

     

    It seems very slow going on the RR!
    23 Jul 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    Any time a mega-cap company makes an investment in a nano-cap, the money comes with ropes (as opposed to strings) that preclude the nano-cap from ever doing anything that is not in the investor's best competitive interest.

     

    One of the first things on the mega-cap wish list is perpetual sector exclusivity. Next in line is perpetual advantageous pricing. After that the demands get really onerous.

     

    Axion's management obviously thinks it's better to be exploited for a brief period of time than to sell the company's soul for eternity.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Snowboard2k01 ... Can't speak to BMW (iindelco maybe) but it is not like Norfolk to provide any assistance until the product is proven. Example: Norfolk Southern loaned Rail Power money (I believe it was 2005 ... maybe 2006) against production of the "Green Goat". It did this only after a couple of years of successful development & production had started. I don't know why or how much. I can tell you that when several "Goats" burned to the frame in 2007 and Rail Power went BK in 2009 that NSC collected, as payment, IIRC, 15 of them. All but one are gensets now.

     

    http://bit.ly/13ANhGl

     

    http://nyti.ms/13ANhGn

     

    I wouldn't look to Norfolk to extent any financial help until things prove out ... if then. Help will come from them in the form of purchase orders and, presently those are not assured in any way, form or fashion.
    23 Jul 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8762) | Send Message
     
    DRich, It does no good to have BMW support Axion financially. They want their supply base to take them under their wing if they in fact want the parts for future vehicles. This is the way the industry is structured. The tier one suppliers manage what is not deemed "core" to BMW's product. Not being core does not mean it's not valuable. It's just not what makes BMW stand out as unique.

     

    BMW does not have the resources to manage all their individual suppliers. The tier one suppliers are far more suited for this task. They will do research and testing but if/when it comes to production they will look for external suppliers. Gives them more power to motivate excellence if they have it out in the supply community with more than one solution for each need. Suppliers become self managing.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    From Tom's Konrad’s article:

     

    "While Norfolk Southern and especially ePower could potentially produce orders which lead to explosive sales growth in coming years, Axion’s initiatives in stationary markets are most likely to lead to significant revenue and cash flow this year. --- Axion has responded to a large number of RFPs in these markets which could lead to orders and this year. Since payment is typically up-front, any such orders would greatly help Axion’s financing situation."
    .........................

     

    This is in line with what TG has been saying pretty consistently; that it's highly likely Axion will see PbC revenues in the coming year that are not related to BMW, NS or ePower. This is encouraging to me, because additional revenues, no matter how relatively modest, reduces the cash burn rate, and stretches out the “runway” for needed future financing. Even a few months stretch would give additional valuable time for so many promising things to come together.
    23 Jul 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    WIO,
    I would also like to know what "Preferred Vendor" status means for these possible markets. I don't think I've seen that comment used in any of the CCs to date.
    23 Jul 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    John, thanks for the clarification. Now that it was mentioned I to see the OMY reference. Funny that you mentioned IT being a woman as I thought that from day one to.

     

    Who would feel comfortable running a lotto pool so we could pretty much buy the place and never have to worry about financing issues again.
    23 Jul 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Crowdsourcing of some type, Ryan? It seems so sensible in our situation. This is what Valleywood wrote in one of his first few posts. I remember so well that I went back to look for it. Hope you don´t mind, VW.

     

    "The Great Irony of the Individual Investor:

     

    Let's stipulate that there are 4,000 individual investors in a small company that is struggling. And then let's pretend that under IRS rules we can give to whomever we choose $10,000/Yr. tax free. Then let's assume those investors learn that their company is desperate for cash to limp along to the certain riches close to their reach.

     

    Those four thousand each write a gift check for $1,000 payable to said company. That's $4M plus or minus. And the SP would remain bouyed at say...... $0.50.

     

    Now I don't know about you, but I use Fidelity Active Trader and my losses are in red ink. Red ink & green ink. Very festive, yes? Anyway, the red ink on my screen after AXPW is a significant multiple of $1,000. I'd be way way ahead in my game of pretend.

     

    But we invest as individuals and assume risk as individuals. We are funny creatures. :>)

     

    Ford was not competitive until Henry perfected the assembly line and paid his workers enuff to buy a Model-A. Created his own customers.

     

    Perhaps if each of us bought a battery??? The mind reels......."
    23 Jul 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    I meant "crowdfunding"
    23 Jul 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Well, it's nice to dream...

     

    There have been previous posts re: pooling our $ to invest either directly in Axion or by buying up shares in the aftermkt (e.g., the Old Big Uglies' last chunks, we thought at the time). Never resulted in purchasing, but that's not to say it can't happen some day...

     

    The reality is that Axion appears to be stuck with the PIPE well into next year. A cursory reading of the deal showed that not only is there the standard anti-dilution provisions but IIRC, rights of first refusal on new money. The New Big Uglies could just match any offer Axionistas would make, if that is the case. And IIRC, there's a prohibition on new debt, w/o the NBUs' approval. Seems like the deal locks down Axion's financing options pretty darn well, but I may have misread it or left something out.

     

    Besides, as Tom Konrad rightfully points out, Axion may well need additional capital yet again next year. So $9 mil to take out the NBUs if that's really even realistic (plus some interest) + maybe $10 mil next year = almost $20mil, when we couldn't even put together a Old Big Uglies take-out of 1/10 that last year.

     

    I would say that Axionistas' hope rides on either extreme discipline in not selling at all (that's unrealistic IMO), or in Axion delivering huge sticky news, the sooner the better. To me, it's all about the latter.
    23 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29444) | Send Message
     
    The first million dollar installment has already been paid. The estimated payment on the second million is due on or about August 1st. The August make-whole and September estimate are due a month later. I don't like the financing any more than Tom does, but I know that six of the nine million dollars will be repaid this year.

     

    Rights of first refusal can be worth having, but exercising one requires that you agree to the same fundamental terms. If somebody comes in with a straight equity offer at $X the NBUs can match the offer and claim priority, but they can't change the other terms and turn a sensible deal into garbage.
    23 Jul 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Well, what if the money was a gift, like VW said? Anyway, a couple thousand this year and a couple next from a lot of us shareholders could make a few payments to the NBUs plus the penalty, no? If it raised the share price to the upper 30's, we would be ahead by far.

     

    One of us could take pledges, and if the amount reached a useful total, we could all send our "gifts" at once. A total meter could be published regularly to see where it stands. Like the school donation meter poster. Like a thermometer.
    23 Jul 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Just seeing the "mercury" rising might scare the shorts. ja ja
    23 Jul 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    yoyo, if you really love the idea, and can do it legally, give it a whirl.
    23 Jul 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    The Right of First Refusal language, IIRC, might have a make-whole of 26.4 cents. But I could be way off on that. If my vague memory of quickly reading it late one nigh