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  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    First?
    24 Jul 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    2nd!
    24 Jul 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1476) | Send Message
     
    good morning!
    24 Jul 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    07/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 328, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 2045546, AvTrSz: 6236
    Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1950, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1804
    # Buys, Shares: 195 1012340, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1815
    # Sells, Shares: 132 1027206, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1793
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 6000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1830
    Buy:Sell 1:1.01 (49.5% “buys”), DlyShts 497243 (24.31%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.41%

     

    Due to the number of trades I had to manually enter today, there may be some errors.

     

    Note the smaller decline 7/19 to 7/22 in the VWAP and 85% price. This is the first sign that we may have begun nearing a bottom in the expected share issue prices. It's not quite there yet, but at last it's working towards it.

     

    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
    07/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
    07/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302

     

    Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6, 2046.

     

    You may recall I've been using the phrase “reducing weakness” or a similar phrase for some time (a week or so?). I had commented a few days ago that it wouldn't taker much to produce a signal of a move up coming. Well we're not quite there yet but in my newer version below you'll note only one small negative number. I've mentioned in the past that I'm gaining more confidence in the newer version and we know the original is a bit “flaky”.

     

    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: -3.5%, 15.8%, 3.4%, 1.1%, 0.5%, -3.7%
    5-day change: -33.7%, 31807.0%, -60.4%, 21.5%, 11.0%, -295.9%
    5-day rate of change change: -42.8%, -60.2%, -78.7%, 14.5%, -13.4%, -165.0%

     

    Before looking at the newer change percentages, keep in mind that the two 5-day metrics need to be viewed in a context rate of change, not absolute changes in values. We had a nice acceleration from “reducing weakness” to “increasing strength”, as I've been mentioning. What you see now is a decrease in that change in acceleration, not yet a suggestion in weakening. It's possible to interpret the changes as a top is being suggested, but it's too early to decide that's the case. It could be that we are now reverting to a more steady “grind up”, as was seen back in November when I posted that I believed we were beginning a “grind up”. To put some context around it, here's a few day's readings of the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day newer experimental inflection point calculations and those from 11/12 and forward a few days.

     

    -48.04 -095.94 -424.81 -422.03 -1230.10 -613.55
    -33.99 -119.92 -444.18 -534.18 -1365.66 -862.40
    -14.78 -125.42 -466.16 -592.85 -1338.08 -766.41
    -13.29 -126.52 -428.35 -528.77 -1216.25 -512.67
    +49.62 +015.99 -208.35 -135.69 -0596.67 +657.66

     

    -237.40 -262.77 -405.18 -889.12 -697.50
    -111.84 -164.85 -294.14 -575.10 -150.01
    -052.24 -123.10 -060.69 -092.56 +893.30
    -043.58 -163.77 -140.38 -280.34 +486.73
    -013.45 -175.30 -140.72 -363.14 +264.35
    +055.83 -132.83 -078.93 -222.00 +337.98
    +048.62 -047.74 -070.66 -257.62 +160.42

     

    Note the positive readings on the 5, 10 and 200 day metrics for today and on the 5-day and 100-day (200-day wasn't available yet) for last November. If this newer version is correct, the crosses above zero are a bullish indication. However, knowing what we know about the financing deal and what we (I?) think goes on with the financiers, I don't know whether to place any faith in them or not. In normal circumstances, I would have a fair amount of faith in them.

     

    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: 473.2%, 112.6%, 51.4%, 74.3%, 50.9%, 228.3%
    5-day change: -16.2%, 18.4%, -34.6%, -22.6%, -22.5%, -30.6%
    5-day rate of change change: -42.7%, -40.6%, -65.5%, -57.0%, -54.3%, -60.2%

     

    I suggest taking a look at the actual numbers in my instablog for a better feel for the implications of underlying numbers if it's not quite clear.

     

    The last two days I said “The other thing of note, although being a Friday maybe not so significant, was that we seem to have an attempt at price recovery going on” and “Today, I think we can call it significant as our high, VWAP and close were +7.59%, +3.70% and 11.70% respectively. What could it be, what could it be ... Hm”. Well, today the low, high, VWAP and close prices were up 13.3%, 14.7%, 12.8% and 7.12% respectively.

     

    ARCA was in from the start again today and hey were generally “well behaved” in their selling for the rest of the day again, not taking extraordinary measures to battle ATDF for the top spot on the sell side and often sitting later in the ask queue awaiting a hit. They are now acting much more like a normal market participant, sometimes being more aggressive and sometimes more patient. I'm sure they will benefit more over the long haul with this combination of behavior.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    Wow, lots of interesting stuff going on all of the sudden. Just finished reading Tom's article and the new investor presentation. The article and also the presentation are hinting that the sales we've all been desperately waiting for are just around the corner.
    I do think that when that happens there's no way the PPS won't respond nicely. The lack of sales IMO was the number one reason why the stock tanked (in combination with the selling pressure from the Big Uglies, Quercus & co).
    A significant sales contract or a design win is the only real proof that Axion is a great company and that there's merit to the technology.
    And I'm not talking ePower, which is interesting since John is involved, but at this point in time a little fish.
    I'm convinced that the effect of a tier1 sales contract will outweigh the finance situation by far. There's a lot of psychology involved and I think TK underestimates this fact.
    24 Jul 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Thanks again John, that was part of the whole concern for me is if it was over and done with why would these so called humans still be going on about this.

     

    The case was interesting and I guess we can all thank that it did happen or else we wouldn't be here today.
    24 Jul 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    The case was not the least bit interesting. All the opposition ever did was wave their hands and whine without producing credible evidence to support their position. Mercifully the Ontario Securities Commission sanctioned the bad guys in ways that are beyond the power of mere mortals.

     

    http://bit.ly/11dHkhQ
    24 Jul 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    wow! I don't understand the whole history of this but, man, these guys must really screwed up!
    24 Jul 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Some of the worst actors I've ever seen, and I've seen a lot in three decades. That's why settling with them was never in the cards. Nobody could stomach the idea of being on the same shareholders list with those guys.
    24 Jul 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    From previous concentrator: "Jcrjg: Can anyone explain slide 16 of the new presentation on Module Variation? ...... thanks. 24 Jul, 07:54 AM"

     

    Slide 16 of the new Investor presentation shows how the PbC has inherent charge equalization over time when several batteries are connected in a string. It is what our group have been referring to as "King in a String (KIAS)" phenomenon that distinguishes the PbC from other AGM batteries.

     

    At the bottom of the figure is a schematic of three PbC batteries connected in series, or "string," rather than parallel. The colored data points in the upper part of the figure demonstrate that, when connected in series and run through multiple charge and discharge cycles, the resting voltage state after recharge tends to equalize over time, even when the three batteries may have had unequal charge states when initially connected.

     

    This is vastly different from AGM batteries, where the opposite tends to be true. In AGM's, the natural degradation of charge acceptance in individual batteries, due to entropy and electrode sulfation, tends to make the end state charge voltage diverge over time as the batteries age at different rates.

     

    Thus, the PbC is "self-equalizing" in a string configuration and does not require sophisticated battery management systems to monitor the state of charge of each battery and vary the individual charging voltage to keep them equalized, in the same voltage range, over repeated charge cycles. This saves considerably in cost and complexity of the battery management system.
    24 Jul 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin,

     

    Thanks that is very helpful. I assumed the different colored data points were for the different batteries but was not sure.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I can understand that living it wouldnt be as interesting as being on the outside looking in. Long as the axis of evil doesn't have any weapons of mass destruction in this matter they can wave their hands as high as they wish.
    24 Jul 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    sorry

     

    where do I find the "new investor presentation" from AXPW
    24 Jul 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    The newest investor presentation, dated 7/17/13, and discussed extensively in the previous concentrator, is available at the Axion website: http://bit.ly/v9fnMY
    24 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Gotta go over the mountain today to Charlottesville to see the dentist. The state of Presidents is wonderful but Panky dentists are only near the dark territory surrounding UVA. :>) Anyway, I can't play with you guys today 'cause when we're through having teeth cleaned SWMBO wants to go shopping. ( sigh ). That doesn't mean I can't have fun when I get back, so . . . . . .

     

    Been reviewing with great interest all the speculation re: battery supply partners for BMW. Gotta have two here for vehicles made here and gotta have two in Europe for vehicles made there. Will go ahead and assume Axion is allowed to be one of two here. Or not. Doesn't matter.
    After reading a sickening number of times TG's answers to all questions I have to admit that if I were in his shoes............... running Axion ........ and if I already had a contract signed with a partner here ....... and if I wanted another..... I'd answer inquiries exactly as he did.
    OEM suppliers needing additional land, utilities, etc. just might demand secrecy until after the support issues have been addressed. Doesn't matter whether here or in Europe.
    Just for pure raw fun, and in perfect agreement with TG remarks quoted on this board in the past 24 hours and stipulating that this board is a great support group, I wanna speculate that the agreement is already a done deal.
    I luv you guyz !
    Gotta go. :>)
    24 Jul 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Replying to self:

     

    Anybody live near Clemson, SC ?

     

    See any dirt being pushed around?

     

    Remember that the secret to life is to have fun.
    24 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    "Have fun" with the dental waterboarding in C'ville, VW.

     

    I spent a summer in C'ville many decades ago in undergrad and remember it fondly as a lovely town.
    24 Jul 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Did anybody post a link to the APC in the comments section of Tom's article yesterday? If not, it might be a good idea to post it on the top of the comments section of Tom's followup article. The trading volume seems to indicate there's going to be more investors who would be interested in this unique blog.

     

    BTW JP, RE: "One more time..." --- If we get a number of new followers, that may become a more and more frequent refrain... (I hope so!)...
    24 Jul 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of Mi-Jack. :(

     

    Saft Li-ion Batteries Make an Important Breakthrough with Contract for Houston Harbor’s Hybrid-Powered Mobile Cranes

     

    "Saft Li-ion batteries will enable MJ EcoPower Hybrid Systems (a division of Mi-Jack Products) to provide a greener option for mobile RTG cranes as part of innovative hybrid diesel-electric drives that cut fuel consumption by up to 70 percent "

     

    http://bit.ly/12j5ev2
    24 Jul 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco - What a great find. I think you left off the most interesting part of the press release.

     

    "In previous installations at ports and railyards, EcoCrane® systems based on lead-acid batteries have demonstrated dramatic fuel savings of up to 70 percent as well as reducing emissions from 87 to 98 percent depending on the emissions category. Regular battery-only running also makes the crane operations much quieter, improving working conditions for operators and reducing noise impact on the local environment, as well as improving the machine responsiveness.

     

    For the Houston cranes, MJ EcoPower Hybrid Systems is taking the EcoCrane® system to the next level by replacing the lead-acid batteries with Saft Li-ion batteries to supply the normal operating power as well as providing regenerative storage for energy captured as the crane hoist lowers containers. The small diesel generator will only need to be started to recharge the batteries when required it will be turned off for around 50 percent of the shift."

     

    I am shocked that the standard was actually a lead-acid battery and not Li-ion. I had assumed the Li-ion was the default. Now I really wonder what sort of lead-acid battery is the default and how long they last. Somebody in our sales team should be on a flight to Montreal to be offering batteries to test them against lead and Saft's Li-ion.

     

    Also, the size of market is mentioned. Interesting to understand the size.

     

    "There are up to 600 existing RTG cranes in US harbors that could potentially be retrofitted with hybrid power systems, while around 150 new cranes are built every year for the global market. "

     

    Anybody know how many batteries would be per RTG?
    24 Jul 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Maybe 108?
    24 Jul 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, Thanks. I'm getting lazy in reading everything in the articles in this area. I mentioned this as a great application since my time on the Yadoodle board. Axion, as you suggest, should have been all over this market. It's perfect for PbC because the mass is not that critical IMO.

     

    In light of Norfolk Southerns purchase of extra services or batteries when they bought the first order for the NS999 I was hoping Mr. Barbee was going to load up one of these since NSC uses a bunch of these tire cranes.

     

    Darn it Gibson Barbee! It's lower profile and biting you right in the @#$. Couldn't be a more obvious EZ application.

     

    Oh well Mr. H. I'm with ya. ;)
    24 Jul 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "Axion, as you suggest, should have been all over this market. It's perfect for PbC because the mass is not that critical IMO."

     

    Must have been beyond Axion management's control.
    24 Jul 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    A US fleet of 600 RTG cranes with 100 batteries each represents a total addressable market of about $12 million a year assuming a two year battery replacement cycle.

     

    It would be fun business if it effortlessly fell into Axion's lap, but it's not even a rounding error in the markets where Axion is focusing its time, talent and resources.
    24 Jul 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    ii - am I missing something? If lead acid was the standard before doesn't that seem to indicate that NS may be using one of the cranes to try out the PbCs as posited in an earlier Concentrator?
    24 Jul 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    True John. But over the last couple years I'd take 25% of that compared to the flooded business in a heart beat. I'm not looking down on the flooded business but the symbolic nature of such a win would be worth it all day long.

     

    Time can be very harsh on micro caps just as the turn can be dramatic as well. As you say, It's not the revenue, it's the signs of where the company is going that carry the day initially. The flooded business is just a platform to allow Axion firmer ground to stand on. It doesn't take them anywhere.
    24 Jul 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Were I in TG's position I wouldn't turn away the RTG business if it fell in my lap. I just wouldn't spend a whole lot of time and money pursuing the niche because even a dominant position is irrelevant. I would be happy to learn that NS is testing the PbC for RTG applications but it wouldn't bother me in the least to learn that they weren't.

     

    When it comes to doing business with NS, I want their 4,000 vehicle fleet that needs up to 1,600 batteries per unit instead of a handful of RTGs that need 100 batteries each.

     

    I don't go chasing butterflies when I'm out hunting elk.
    24 Jul 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    >John Petersen,
    That's just silly!
    24 Jul 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Sometimes shareholders lose perspective when they read about a suitable application and say "Axion ought to jump right on that market." The RTGs are just the latest example.

     

    Our company is devoting its resources to becoming the dominant player in several multi-billion dollar niches in stop-start, rail and heavy trucking. It would be a monumental waste of time, talent and resources to take the team away from job one to pursue something trivial.
    24 Jul 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Unless you starve to death before u find the elk.
    24 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    John: If NSC is playing with PbC-driven RTGs, I suspect they might ask Axion for some input? Axion wouldn't say no?

     

    I also assume NSC pays a bit of the freight in that case and is willing to work a bit on the scheduling.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    I agree with John that the company has to allocate scarce resources towards the best opportunities. That said, it also occurs to me that Axion may be wasting a resource that could help it pursue such opportunities as the crane market.

     

    There are a number of people who frequent these concentrators who have a pretty good understanding of how the Axion battery works. Some of them also seem to have a lot of time on their hands, at least compared to us who have to work (and thus rarely comment). I'm wondering if it wouldn't be possible for Axion to make use of a few of them as part of a 'sales' team. I don't know how it would work, but perhaps some technically oriented Axionistas would be interested in such a role.
    24 Jul 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Once you have a confidence level of PbC in a string for loco's and you have your engineers up to speed on designing BMS's for PbC strings, I can't imagine why you wouldn't upgrade your tire gantry cranes in order to save 60-70 % of your diesel use in the app. I'd be all over that like flies on....

     

    BTW, My impression is that NSC's older TGC's are probably not hybrids. So even more incentive to get these fixed right away thus my 60-70% omment. I've been waiting to hear something cuz it makes so much sense to me. This is what I was thinking of when NSC augmented the NS999 order. That and/or some level of NS999 tech. support.
    24 Jul 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    I don't disagree with you on being able to balance time vs potential. I think of AXPW going to head to head with an incumbent Lead Acid battery much easier to convince a vendor than going against Li-ion as that is basically a price issue. If the current version of the hybrid RTGs are using standard Lead Acid or AGM then the value benefit is both lifecycle and cost is neglible. I think its just an easier sell. Even if you do the math and say that the RTG will only be 150/year (with a 5 year cycle) its a signal that the PbC isn't vaporware which is how I think its viewed by most outsiders.

     

    Using your hunting analogy when I go hunting for deer I often knock off a squirrel that runs by as I wait. What we know of is that we are stalking one Elk (NS), one maybe more Bear (BMW) and there are some other animals around as we see their eyes at night but haven't gotten a good look at them in the daylight.

     

    If we were tracking 3 different Elk and a few Bears I'd let the squirrel go but sometimes you need practice in how to take down the big guy. (At least that is what I told myself the morning after picking up what I could at last call on Sat. night)
    24 Jul 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    John, Understand your point so I'm not going to dwell on this topic any longer. I'm also a fan of big game hunting.

     

    But I'm also a fan of picking up berries, nuts and even grubs if necessary along the way so I can maintain my position in the food chain. Lately I've been feeling a little like I'm the game. Wish I had the advantage of better hunter gatherer proceeds. ;))
    24 Jul 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    "It would be a monumental waste of time, talent and resources to take the team away from job one to pursue something trivial."

     

    IMO, kind of like the Hub was. Hopefully, the crane idea is something NS just wanted to try out.
    24 Jul 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    The only thing we know about NS is that they bought some extra batteries to try in other applications. We have no idea what those applications might be, although RTGs seem to have potential.

     

    The one thing stockholders can't afford to do – ever – is speculate about a possible application for the PbC and then get upset over double speculation that Axion isn't paying adequate attention.
    24 Jul 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "not even a rounding error in the markets where Axion is focusing its time, talent and resources. "

     

    Capture of 10% of a $12million per year market would generate $1.2 million in revenue, 2.4X the amount sold to Norfolk Southern last year and apparently about $1.2 million more than realized in sales to BMW. Profit margin on such a sub "rounding error" volume in PbC sales would equal or exceed that realized on toll manufacturing of FLABs.

     

    AND, there really is no evidence Axion has expended any of its engineering resources on Norfolk Southern activities for a year or more.
    24 Jul 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    well said D-inv
    24 Jul 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    All we really do around here is speculate. It's our favorite past time.
    24 Jul 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Yep. It's contagious to see the possibilities and to wonder how one might make it work out for group/individual advantage. There is no shortage of pie in the sky and real honest possibilities.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: w/o "pie in the sky" we all starve. Getting fed once in a while by the keepers would obviate the need for the pie. We wouldn't have to wonder in extended periods of "nada". We would at least have some real gruel and come up to the standards seen in the gulags.

     

    I guess being several months into negotiations for a BMW battery supplier and saying nothing to support share price still sticks in my craw after seeing the financing deal they managed to get.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    It never ceases to amaze me how long it takes to move from a handshake to a signed document. In simple transactions a couple months of negotiating the details and drafting contracts is common. In complex transactions or deals that involve special challenges, the time to completion is frequently on the order of six months.
    25 Jul 2013, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    JP - "It [RTG] would be fun business if it effortlessly fell into Axion's lap, but it's not even a rounding error in the markets where Axion is focusing its time, talent and resources."

     

    Yes, but,
    1) I don't want to see my shares diluted any more so if that was cash that kept us going until "the big one" then it would be good?
    2) It would be good for the share price too, and hence less dilution.
    3) It would be proof of concept and might lead to further other "niche", or bigger, sales.
    4) Otherwise when we look at the annuals in few years we are going to read "99.9% of our income comes from one customer" and that won't look good (I exaggerate slightly).

     

    Diversity reduces risk. We've raised some money, best spend it on generating more.

     

    It does worry me that every application apparently requires what seems like re-engineering for the PbC to be best suited. This has got to stop and an "off-the-shelf" solution (ie inc BM) be available that suit a range of applications.
    25 Jul 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    It's not an issue of re-engineering the PbC to fit specific applications. It's an issue of helping customers engineer their proposed devices to mesh with the capabilities of the PbC.

     

    Axion is on a specific development path for the PbC. That development path has included building a robotic production line for assembling and sealing the five layers of a PbC electrode. That development path has included an automated production process for the carbon sheets that are the two outer layers of the PbC electrode. That development path has included enhancements to positive electrode designs that haven't changed in decades because the failure point in conventional lead-acid batteries was almost always the negative electrode.

     

    Axion's work with ePower, for example, has involved helping ePower modify its series hybrid electric drive to work optimally with the PbC. The same is true for NS and BMW.

     

    The dynamic is an odd one because customers keep designing electro-mechanical systems that don't really work properly with any battery, which is why NS and ePower had tremendous problems with battery failures under regenerative braking loads. While an off the shelf PbC can handle obscene regenerative braking loads, the rest of the electro-mechanical system still has to be optimized to work with the PbC.

     

    In the final analysis the PbC's capabilities drive electro-mechanical system design and it's not a question of Axion changing its product to suit BMW, NS or ePower. The PbC is what it is and Axion's hard work is helping users achieve their goals by adapting their systems to work optimally with the PbC.

     

    Batteries are stupid devices and they don't generally respond well to change. While the PbC is 'tunable' by changing electrode thicknesses and other architectural parameters within a very limited range of possibilities, changing the battery to suit a user is very unlikely until Axion and its partners start building special purpose facilities to serve the needs of specific users.
    25 Jul 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Gruel in the gulag. lol

     

    Boy are you getting a little carried away! A real reach for the stars kinda guy. ;))

     

    The financing deal. (Note to self, Don't repeat yourself, don't repeat yourself, don't repea.....)
    -
    John, If TG was already pretty well into discussions when he indicated this aren't we close to 6 months? 5 months?

     

    Better deliver something on that comment. Not the exact timing but a material event. Or uggh.
    25 Jul 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    jp - "It's not an issue of re-engineering the PbC to fit specific applications." I thought that various different "form factors" were created for different customers/applications, maybe I'm wrong, or that doesn't count as engineering. Nevertheless...

     

    Although the per-customer support requirement is used as the argument for not selling the batteries to Joe Pub, If the PbC were a new CPU / micro-controller etc, no one would expect to buy just the chip, they would be looking for the development board that came with it and turns it into a usable system to do their testing and to develop more specific solutions.
    So it seems to me that what is missing is the equivalent - a (rentable) box with batteries, over-specified BMS, power in/out connectors and lots of things to measure / twiddle / data logging for Axion engineers to analyse etc (and yes we have problems of scale here and I'm sure it wouldn't suffice for all potential applications).

     

    With something like that people could prototype to do their own initial testing and "see it with their own eyes", thus getting more potential customers familiar enough to want to move forward.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Mr. John:

     

    Excelente comentario.

     

    Gracias-Carlos
    25 Jul 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    JP said above: "It's not an issue of re-engineering the PbC to fit specific applications. It's an issue of helping customers engineer their proposed devices to mesh with the capabilities of the PbC."

     

    This entire comment deserves to be "stickied" into the header of the APC's.

     

    It seems to me that even long-time Axionista's keep forgetting that the PbC is a functionally revolutionary departure from standard LAB's, requiring new thinking and engineering on the part of the end users.
    25 Jul 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    DaveT> The marketing infrastructure you suggest might work, but it would certainly require an investment of financial, technical and staff resources in both the creation stage and the operation stage. When a company like Axion is trying to minimize its burn rate and get the biggest bang for every dollar invested, establishing a system to deal with innovator types can often look like a suboptimal cost item. Companies that have big bank accounts can do things like building a Supercharger network that will never be profitable. Companies that have small bank accounts have to stay focused.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    JP, if a company can not invest money in areas for guaranteed sales then it is doomed.

     

    You will never convince me that it is not a simple process to put batteries in a crane. AXPW already has the BMS for the PC, BMW, NS, ePower and whatever else they are working on. ePower is a good example, only a few months ago TG thought there was nothing there and now it is touted as the next or first big revenue stream. AXPW has contributed their expertise, but it has not been a huge expense and neither would a crane.

     

    They will add the batteries and BMS to the crane, but they will never redesign the entire crane around a battery.

     

    This is and has been part of their problem all along.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... Probably not an engineer ... eh? NSC could be a good candidate to upgrade a crane because they have spent a good deal of time working through the PbC. Still it depends on the engineering team being the same people or have excellent communication between teams.

     

    Mi-Jack would be an entirely different kettle of fish because I doubt they have little to any experience with the battery and/or integrating supercapacitors with a battery system. I'd figure that Mi-Jack would probably take a year (min,) to figure it out and likely a little longer to get it into a customer's hand because after they get it to work they'd need to figure everything that could possibly go wrong along with a fix. Their business & reputation would be on the line.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    jp - " establishing a system to deal with innovator types can often look like a suboptimal cost item." but recent history suggests that companies with customer-extendible products do better because they then get all that free design and labour by those that tinker?! [Well ok I don't have any facts for this field and this is hardly a mass-consumer market, but we know it works in other areas.]
    25 Jul 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Since I'm not in a position to make those decisions and have no earthly idea what such a system would cost, I'm very reluctant to second guess the people who are required to make those decisions and have a pretty clear grasp of the expected costs.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    I've learned the hard way that too much success too fast is just as lethal to a business as not enough business coming too slowly. I've seen (and, sadly been part of) businesses that failed because they could not manage their success.

     

    It's easy to say they should explore every opportunity but -- and those who understand real 'green' resources should understand this, methinks -- there is a finite limit to resources and that includes manpower in a growing company trying to hatch out three big breaks in the (relative) short-run.

     

    I may be wrong but it seems to me that there needs to be a firewall between what the company does and what investors think. In the real world, it is the company leadership being concerned about the company success long-term that pays the biggest dividends (metaphorically speaking; not that I mind dividends). Investors are driven by getting profit on their money.

     

    It may be stupid of me but I don't put money into small companies when I don't like or plan on endlessly criticizing its management. If I do put money in, then I go with their plan and I leave them room to run.

     

    I don't think it is productive and I would be unhappy if they choose to chase every might-be project and ran out PR after PR about it. Makes them look like a bunch of amateurs and gets people thinking 'pump-and-dump' -- which ain't the reputation I want for us.
    25 Jul 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    obieephyhm: and you said you didn't have much to contribute? I think well said just now was a good contribution!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    obieephyhm,

     

    My sentiments exactly. Succinctly put. Thanks.

     

    Kvetching accomplishes nothing.
    25 Jul 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    ob, when put as an extreme any good idea can be made to sound somewhat ridiculous. The question is not whether the management should stick a finger in every pie on the table, but what they could do more to make the product and company more successful with the resources available. There are lots of people here, so there are lots of ideas to churn over, more than could be used no doubt.

     

    When I first invested (quite some time ago) I did not plan on endlessly criticizing management; but circumstances have changed and now I do criticise them, but not endlessly. And I think it worth adding that as they seem very unresponsive any shareholder input (ie they don't reply to various different levels of input), they rather do lay themselves open to further complaint. And it doesn't help that stated intentions have not come to fruition, but nether has there been any explanation.

     

    Despite the huge lost opportunity cost of the early investment, I have also bought more recently, so I certainly consider myself entitled to air my views here on this board, and to make (infrequent) representations to management and to get a response from them.

     

    Each to his own.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    DaveT: Yours was also a good contribution. None of us should forget that many different styles for many different folks will be appropriate. And as long as we treat each other with due respect, the sharing of the thoughts benefits all of us as we get exposed to views other than our own.

     

    If this ever becomes a "cookie cutter" board, I'm outta here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    DaveT - please don't interpret my thoughts as being relevant to anyone but me . . . I understand that people like to vent about what frustrates them. So maybe my ideas are worth less . . . or maybe even worthless . . .

     

    My relevant experience (if any of it truly is) is in seeing what happens when good companies fail because they can't handle their success. For me -- and I admit it is perhaps only relevant to me -- that seems often to come along when they are pressured to do too many things too quickly and end up not doing any of them too well. Product reputation suffers and -- again, perhaps only for me -- that's the worst company 'death-spiral' to be part of.

     

    I'm not much of a coach but I know a bit about the subject. I don't try to get my placement hitters to swing for the fences unless I'm absolutely positive it's the right thing to do in the game situation. I want my players playing to their strengths and trying not to put them in the position where they only way they can win is if they make absolutely no mistakes whatever. That's a lot of pressure and not the kind that generally does a lot of good.

     

    Again, these are my thoughts. If there's something relevant in them that helps others sleep well at night -- then maybe in some small way I've contributed to this outstanding thread. If not, well - thanks for letting me 'vent', then!
    25 Jul 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    obie ... Some Axionistas have held the stock for longer than the 4 + years I've held a position (and tracking Axion for more than year beforehand). I've seen nothing on the APCs or in private communications suggesting any of the long-term investors participating on APCs embarked on those investments with a negative view of management or with plans to endlessly criticize it. Management has been given "room to run" with their plan and have fallen short of achieving commercialization or in realizing expectations they themselves created. I have only begun to fight for change in corporate policy and/or management.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    obie

     

    "I may be wrong but it seems to me that there needs to be a firewall between what the company does and what investors think."...
    If there's something relevant in them that helps others..."

     

    Very relevant...especially given the peculiarities of AXPW, i.e. battery technology, moving from R&D to sales.
    Thank you!
    26 Jul 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Hey HTL,

     

    RE: "I guess being several months into negotiations for a BMW battery supplier and saying nothing to support share price still sticks in my craw after seeing the financing deal they managed to get."
    .........................

     

    IIRC, you had said you weren't going to mention this again. Isn't it amazing how things that "stick in our craw" can motivate us to say things we might not otherwise say? So, when it comes my turn to do the same [which I may have done yesterday with my lengthy, somewhat ranty post on increasing the number of authorized shares], I can point to your post here and say, "Well, HTL does it too!" LOL --- And BTW, rant as much as you need to on this one. Your point is valid!
    1 Aug 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the folks trading through ARCA, ATDF, NITE ... realize what they are giving up today.

     

    Through 12:08 EDT, VWAP is $0.1826 and buy:sell is 4:1 (80% "buys").

     

    They're wasting the bullish sentiment by tussling with each other.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Been awhile since we've seen that kind of ratio HTL. Tis good.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Normally we couldn't expect that ratio to hold, but seeing EOD near 60%+ would not be unusual when we were at these levels this early. With the current environment, I think we'll end under around 1.5:1 or so unless the sell side changes behavior - not seen at this time (14:05 EDT).

     

    The buyers seem to be playing cagey - $0.1771 bid has been sitting there forever, regardless of who jumps over them. And now the sellers, getting impatient or scared I guess, have started playing leap frog down the price scale.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2013, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Also seems volume has tapered off a little as the players take a breather to digest the recent move off the lows. Pretty good run for any newbies or "addware" folks. (Don't think of the real meaning of adware.)
    24 Jul 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1431) | Send Message
     
    I haven't posted much lately and have been following the APC much less closely, primarily because I've bought into the long-term story outlined by Konrad in his Forbes story and I'm not interested in trading for pennies in a stock I expect to trade above $1 per share within the next year or two. I can't imagine anything turning up in the APC that would make me want to sell, and watching the pot day to day consumes time while doing nothing to bring it closer to the boiling point.

     

    I welcome the exposure provided by TK and the very bullish long-term picture it paints. His final jarring comment and his nonsense in the follow-ups about shorting make him appear a bit of a fool, and I'm sure if great news emerges tomorrow and AXPW never sees 15c again he'll be reminding everyone a year from now how he was an early bull on AXPW, featuring it at 17c a share, but if he wants to risk missing a huge gain out of concern for a possible short-term setback of a penny or two, that's his prerogative.

     

    I've also decided to give TG something of a pass in the area of communications. While this latest financing has to be viewed as a disaster relative to the expectations he raised, I'm convinced his limitations as a communicator are not responsible for AXPW now trading in the teens. ZBB has received plaudits on this board for its superior communications and financing skills, and it has been sliced in half lately to trade near its lows. TG displays the excess enthusiasm typical of an entrepreneur and things never happen as quickly as he expects them to happen, but the major drivers of this company's future still appear to be very much intact.

     

    Some people are going to trade out of AXPW the day before the company releases break-out news that puts the stock up 50% or more. I don't plan to be one of those people.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure Tom Konrad is simply covering his bases to his readers in case AXPW does get hammered down further. Nobody in their right mind would short a 17c stock with potential explosive news past intraday trading.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    and possibly Tom added that sell at .17 comment because he didn't want to appear to be pumping for his friend. I think our request to review Axion might have put him in a bind.
    24 Jul 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1208) | Send Message
     
    I think Tom is keeping it real. He is a cautious guy, especially when it comes to micro-caps--but not afraid to buy when his calculations say buy. He is not buying AXPW--for the moment.

     

    I think he understands the PIPE financing better than I do so I've trimmed my position for the moment.
    24 Jul 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1208) | Send Message
     
    I think Tom is keeping it real. He is a cautious guy, especially when it comes to micro-caps--but not afraid to buy when his calculations say buy. He is not buying AXPW--for the moment.

     

    I think he understands the PIPE financing better than I do so I'm inclined to pay close attention to him.
    24 Jul 2013, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Konrad, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (953) | Send Message
     
    I really do expect it to go down further... in part because of the article I published just now (http://onforb.es/16dNezb). But that's fair, since the article on the 23rd pushed the stock up.

     

    I'm always willing to miss a big upside opportunity if it means I can miss a big downside risk. And I don't think I'll miss out on the ride to $1, if it happens. I watch the market very closely, and so I'll be able to get in quickly after any good news. If not buying now means I buy at $0.20 or $0.25 instead of $0.15, it's a price well worth paying.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Tom Konrad, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (953) | Send Message
     
    PS: don't reply to me here if you want to get my attention- comment on Forbes.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • billa_from_sf
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
     
    My thinking exactly.

     

    I liquidated a 40-cent position at a big loss to avoid losing more -- got shaken out, in other words.

     

    I don't mind paying a premium, though, on news -- real news -- especially under 40 cents, because an actual inked deal means I will be making money.

     

    I find it highly unlikely that AXPW will open at a dollar one morning, but it it does, I will be able to tell everyone I know how close I came to making big money but blew it by selling at a loss.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    The short interest for July 15th was just published. The new number is 1,305,092 shares, up ~5% from 1,166,400 shares at June 30th.

     

    Since Axion's float is ~110 million shares, the short interest is less than trivial.

     

    I'm still not sure what it all means, but it is yet another data point.
    24 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    hedging a spread?
    24 Jul 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    JP, from a few chanel checks I've made it seems to be a hard borrow. However, the fact that the shorts weren't covering makes one wonder a bit. Also there is those who may be skirting typical shorting/borrowing rules. That subject goes down rabbit holes but it may help explain the hammering we saw until recent.
    24 Jul 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    This could very well be a related to the PIPE. I'm also seeing activity in the daily FINRA short data that is very reminiscent of the days when the big uglies were pounding stock into the market at a painful pace.

     

    Over the last year monthly FINRA short sale totals have been:

     

    31-Aug-12 – 2,907,646
    28-Sep-12 – 1,317,538
    31-Oct-12 – 1,897,573
    30-Nov-12 – 1,023,714
    31-Dec-12 – 876,446
    31-Jan-13 – 1,204,780
    28-Feb-13 – 330,325
    28-Mar-13 – 273,307
    30-Apr-13 – 424,080
    31-May-13 – 2,364,369
    28-Jun-13 – 2,927,691
    31-Jul-13 – 2,622,863

     

    It really looks like the FINRA short data may be picking up selling activity from the PIPErs, although I'm not really sure why that would be the case. On the other hand it took me a long time to get comfortable with the idea that the FINRA shorts were a good proxy for selling by the big uglies.

     

    I'll probably figure it out just about the time the PIPErs run out of stock, but there's clearly some sort of relationship here that bears watching.
    24 Jul 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Back from the grinder in Charlottesville. Noticed your call for speculation re: "work" on NS 999. With the usual caveats:

     

    1) I believe NS has been called upon by the the govt. to help test other battery sets within the same boundaries *** they have already determined are best achieve by Axion PbC.*** and until that testing is complete, "work" may be delayed.

     

    2) The Mechanical Department is headquartered in Roanoke. The movers & shakers of Mechanical work in Roanoke. The shaker for 999 lives in Roanoke.

     

    3) The decision maker for expensive decisions works in Norfolk.

     

    4) BoD gives early approval on 2014 Capital Projects in mid September (or any time they wanna ). I expect funding approval of interest to us in the same general zip code of mid September. Might be as late as 1 April but that would surprise me.

     

    5) I believe the following has been said: " Gentlemen, I want a sample green locomotive fleet in operation in 2015. I want it total electric. If that won't work, give me an alternative and have that fleet working in 2015. If you believe you are incapable of making that happen let me know so that I can make other arrangements."

     

    6) The APC studies Altoona hard. We study 999 like medical students studying viral and bacterial stained samples. For all we know, the "testing" on PbC is complete and has been for some time. When you get down to cold hard facts, the PbC loaded locomotive could be working somewhere in Knoxville, Birmingham, Trenton, Philadelphia...... who knows? For sure, we do not. I would feel pretty silly if I studied too much 999. It's good enuff for Maxwell Smart but not necessarily for us.

     

    7) Axion is a innovative battery leader and is NSC's partner. So says NS. If TEMLO is finally chosen then I expect Axion to be the blushing bride.

     

    "Work" done in 2013 IMO is any activity that fits with the seven above points. I feel comfortable that my scenario is reasonable.

     

    OT, I got a nickel says NS is tinkering with PbC in an RTG. Maybe a couple. Jacksonville is a good guess. Lots of pig trains made in Jacksonville. NS runs intermodal trains north like a faucet out of there. NS has already been to school and has a pretty good idea what they're doing w/ PbC.
    24 Jul 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Your best question in 252: WTTE, "When will NS announce". They'll announce this time after they know the answer. It'll sound like this:

     

    " Electric locomotive??? Whutcha ? . . . . . Oh! That ! Oh well, we've had that working for awhile now haulin' freight. Stanley, now where is it working now? "

     

    I think we'll really know when they order more batteries. This time lips will be sealed . Other openings too.
    24 Jul 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I seriously doubt that Norfolk could work NS999 very long outside the shop building without one of the thousands of Train Spotters in the US not seeing it. Day or night. It would be as big a trophy as a verified sighting of Bigfoot. There are a lot, nay a majority, of railroad people I know & read that think the thing is a myth or maybe just a greenwash science fair project.
    24 Jul 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    DR,
    Good reason to have it in the shop visible with another locomotive actually out working. Decoy anybody (OK, it makes for a good story anyway)? Yes, I think 86 and I are related.
    24 Jul 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    Imagine what it would do to the stock price if an announcement came from NS that they had completed three months of successful tests with a disguised NS 999 and were ready to order batteries for 10 more and the first set of batteries for an over the road locomotive.

     

    Then two days later we received confirmation that Axion had completed an agreement with a battery manufacturer that was acceptable to BMW.
    24 Jul 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Thanks VW!

     

    "Other openings too"

     

    Emoticons for the pucker-factor I proposed years ago might apply?

     

    (O) none
    (o) low
    }o{ medium
    }.{ high
    }{ extreme

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    I'm not suggesting 999 ever leaves the shop at all !

     

    I'm suggesting there just might be an additional locomotive with the batteries they've already bought looking just like a regular switcher, out there making trains right now.

     

    For all we know 999 is testing those brand X batteries and our batteries are out there doing real work. That's a classic NS tactic if they want to avoid public annoyance. Flashlight on the left hand while right hand is makin' bacon.

     

    With both boys growing up I had a dedicated college savings account. They were free to see balances growing, go to the bank and make deposits, share the process with their friends, etc. They also knew how much college cost, etc. At the end of the 18 years they understood how painful paying for college could be and that I would have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to make their education happen.

     

    Meanwhile my investment accounts were making their real education balances. I just didn't want them to see it. Learned that trick from the Dept of Defense, Southern Railway, and Norfolk Southern.
    25 Jul 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    VW. No way. Not even a remote possibility. The fact that you even think something like that is possible makes me doubt your NS history. This is all starting to sound like pumping.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    " couldn't drive a hatpin up there with a sledgehammer " is my all time favorite.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1476) | Send Message
     
    DRich: That's a fact!! The NS999 won't leave the yard before its photo is posted.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Guys,
    I love the speculations about 999, but two things are still true. 1) It is still sitting in the shop at Altoona and 2) We've had reports from the CCs that they were having racking problems and that was slowing things down. Since the NS Sustainability Report specifically talks about NS999, I think it unlikely they've made a decoy to sit in the Altoona shop while they run the real switcher somewhere else. Last time I heard, the space inside the Altoona shop was way too valuable to have it being used to house a decoy.

     

    Good night all.
    24 Jul 2013, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Darn it LabTech. Ya just yanked me out of a good dream! And I was just starting to taste "All you can eat" gruel in the gulag. Pulled back from paradise. Sigh.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, I couldn't agree with you more. 999 is sitting in Altoona and NS has spoken of problems.

     

    One more time: I have no clue whatsoever whether NS will settle on TEMLO. The probability is that they will NOT use it, but will use other systems being developed by other roads. I've also heard that other RR experts call 999 a myth and greenwash science fair project. I will lay odds that none of those "experts" worked in NS operations however. NS does not spend multi-millions on science fair projects.

     

    What I am proposing is that NS is doing whatever can be done to make TEMLO a reality. They stand to make many millions of dollars if they can make it work, and they can avoid Contempt of Congress hearings by doing something about emissions. They bleep well better do something and quickly. The Federal government is not playing games here.

     

    But for purposes of Axion we have already won the big prize. NS has publicly stated we are the best bet for their application to date no matter the subsequent outcome. It is human nature for people who are doing nothing and are in possession of no hard facts to be experts at the work being done by somebody else. But that is hardly ever the case. I think many many people who count know about Axion and PbC.

     

    We on this board are not genius gifts to humanity. Nor are we particularly good at discernment over what application of PbC we should pursue. We might think we know, but in the cold hard light of day we do not. I believe our management team does know. We'd better hope they know because if they are wrong we will probably go to zero. I've done it before and more than once. I'm still alive. At least I'm still paying the doctor for physicals. :>)

     

    We are a collection of very bright people who are outrageously curious about many things. I think human curiosity is the second most noble attribute of humanity and I mourn that it is embraced by so few of us in the USA. But I can come here every day and learn new stuff without fail. There are brilliant people here, I suspect, from all over the world. I consider almost everybody posting to be a friend and I have a ball here speculating about Axion. With a nod to HTL, I think this board lives to speculate. If Axion were a rockin' & rollin' company matured into what we hoped it would become I doubt the board would be very popular.

     

    Unfortunately curious folks have a correspondingly bad memory. All of us knew when we bought Axion that it was a highly speculative purchase. We could see the value and bought it anyway. And right now, we are getting the object lesson reinforced on the meaning of the word " speculative ". Memory being refreshed. We don't like it, but there it is.

     

    Nevertheless, I think we're sitting astride a rocket. It smells like a rocket. It looks like a rocket. It feels like a rocket. It could of course be something similar to the pilot's steed in the movie "Strangelove". But I choose to be optimistic and am buying more.

     

    Disclaimer: I promised SWMBO many years ago that one day I would have her sitting in the lap of luxury. She will from time-to-time remind me she is still looking for the lap.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    They have spent a fing year with racking problems ?
    25 Jul 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    We know that racking was one issue, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that there were several lessons learned on the first generation that NS did not want to repeat in the second generation.

     

    The bottom line is we have no freaking idea what the other issues might have been and the fact that neither NS nor Axion are talking doesn't prove anything.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    John, From the few pictures I saw of the NS999, with the batteries stuffed inside packaged in tubs, the prior failed implementation was a real hack job. One of the things I remember being mentioned in one of the Penn State articles was that it was subsequently recognized that racking and air flow designs were key elements for maximizing battery life. Why this was not understood during the first failed implementation of the NS999 with AGM batteries we'll most probably never know.

     

    And you're right. I'm sure they are implementing a ton of improvements in the PbC prototype this time around. The first was to spend the significant amount of money they invested doing redundant testing at PSU, NSC and Axion so they could manage their data collection in a controlled setting. Tons of abuse testing and we're still getting a ride. That's why we're still here! Well that and some of the other possible opportunities discussed at great length in this forum.
    25 Jul 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (130) | Send Message
     
    JP made the statement that he was never more comfortable with the risk / reward profile of AXPW. TK says AXPW stock is not worth .17 cents. It looks like we are going to find out who is right! Axion brings in a nice chunk of cash producing specialty batteries for one company. Perhaps they could make another similar arrangement?
    24 Jul 2013, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Tom did not say that he thought Axion was not worth $.17. He said he was worried that having the PIPErs push too many shares into an illiquid market might depress the price.

     

    Sometimes the market is like a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
    25 Jul 2013, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I long ago discounted any suggestion "racking problems" were an issue with the NS999. More probable explanation of delay in "fielding" the locomotive IMO is re-do of the regenerative braking system, use of the locomotive as a training platform for locomotive engineers in training.

     

    I suppose it possible Altoona staff might be using the NS999 to move other equipment around within the enclosed shop area as part of the build "shake down". :-) Maybe they are studying the effect on air quality of using all-electric locomotives within the shops versus relying on diesels.
    24 Jul 2013, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "re-do of the regenerative braking system"

     

    I think that's a good candidate. If the prior attempt turned batteries into smoldering heaps or deteriorated them quickly, they likely never had an optimal setup on the regen braking. Now that they've got a champ that can handle it, likely some programming, changes in resistor banks, ... seems quite plausible.

     

    We'll never know, probably.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    07/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hr.).
    # Trds: 109, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 477758, AvTrSz: 4383
    Min. Pr: 0.1750, Max Pr: 0.1895, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1808
    # Buys, Shares: 64 289603, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1827
    # Sells, Shares: 44 183155, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1778
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1800
    Buy:Sell 1.58:1 (60.6% “buys”), DlyShts 103160 (21.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 56.32%

     

    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
    07/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
    07/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
    07/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302

     

    Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6, 2046, 477.8.

     

    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: 8.6%, 17.1%, 4.9%, 6.1%, 1.9%, -2.6%
    5-day change: -29.3%, 11.5%, -47.2%, 41.0%, 26.7%, -76.0%
    5-day rate of change change: -35.8%, 62.1%, -153.9%, 335.2%, -13.6%, -79.7%

     

    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: -43.9%, -68.0%, -25.2%, -92.2%, -42.7%, -108.1%
    5-day change: -54.4%, -50.3%, -62.7%, -75.3%, -68.7%, -77.8%
    5-day rate of change change: -74.5%, -87.5%, -126.7%, -113.7%, -110.8%, -127.4%

     

    Note that since the original calculations are sensitive only to buy:sell and volume, they responded well to the bump in buy percentage from yesterday's 49.5% to today's 60.6%. The newer version incorporates other factors and is reflecting the deceleration in the strengthening of those other things over the periods. The 5 and 10-day calculations are still above zero but will need some help in the coming days to stay up there.

     

    ARCA was in from the start again today, along with NITE, ATDF ... Unfortunately, they were insensitive to the bullish sentiment in play, exhibited by the 4:1 buy:sell at 12:08 with a VWAP of $0.1826 I commented on here http://seekingalpha.co.... They squandered the opportunity to make better profit and hold price up by jostling to be first on the ask. The buyers recognized this and began to retreat on the bids. So the sellers ended up playing leap frog later in the day in a rush to get rid of their shares at a lower price.

     

    We held our 85% price for the third consecutive day. Our VWAP also held up well from yesterday's $0.1804, rising 0.24%. Our low did well, up from yesterday's $0.1700 to $0.1750, +2.94%. Our high didn't fare so well, going from yesterday's $0.1950, to 0.1895, a change of (2.82%). Overall, I can't complain ... except about the sellers' shortsightedness, of course.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 06:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Kuddos. Right on the money!

     

    Well, not really, you were off by 0.6%. Can ya get a little closer next time. ;))

     

    "60.6% “buys”"
    25 Jul 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I knew I was going to miss when I saw the sellers start to leap frog a bit later in the day and knew that the pattern is that buyers then take advantage and hit the ask.

     

    I wasn't sure how bad the miss would be, so I clamped my trap.

     

    What I can't figure is how buyers can be so astute as to spot the sellers' patterns of behavior and therefore have patience, while the sellers seem so blind to what they are giving up by being impatient. Now in fairness, a lot of this could be MMs, like ATDF et al, that play both sides of the market and see further into the market than we can. They don't care 'bout price, just spread and "sell high and *then* buy low".

     

    But we have to figure than some high percentage of the selling is real trader or investor sell orders, right? And with the sustained high short interest now, I think my early thoughts about either hedging (most likely?) or driving price down to acquire more might be part of this. In both of these latter cases, government-like "price insensitivity" would apply I think.

     

    No way to ever know though.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I think there is a little of "all of the above" going on in the markets. You have mm looking to get shares moving for their commissions, computers looking at imbalances, funds pushing up and down, retail hold outs, retail looking to get out and back in to capture a few pennies and...

     

    You never know which are controlling at any given time but the patterns certainly do shift.
    25 Jul 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    I will guarantee one thing to you HTL. There is currently at least one computer program playing the AXPW tune.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I've thought for a long time it was ATDF at least.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Don't know who it is. I'm just reflecting on the reaction times associated with some of the moves. Some of the action I'm seeing cannot be accomplished fast enough by carbon units like you and I. Or it's just MM's hiding their bids. Not having worked in the biz I can only imagine all the tricks of the trade. Faster, smarter and their own set of rules we can't live by. Plus the rules they violate!

     

    Other than that we're all equal. ;))
    25 Jul 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    It's clear they don't even care if it's obvious.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    FPA, You're right there.

     

    BTW, Good thoughts in your prior post. Thanks.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    More hysteria re: railroads

     

    Railroads don't like the spotlight. They further will not want to be be in the spotlight because they are not hard at work on green locomotives.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Jul 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    VW: a case "do something", other than find out why the cars decoupled in the first place? IIRC, step 1 is identify the problem.

     

    What that seems to suggest is that they are treating he symptoms (although maybe there is some plausible support for making tanker cars tougher since normal derailments also occur off and on - I don't know), not the problem in the Canada case.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Pre-market puts us back in the hole $0.155x10K and b/a was $0.155/$0.16.

     

    Then 115K @ $0.1552 in two trades. MM satisfied some order from a good customer I think.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    Tom Konrad has his new article up:

     

    Axion Power: Is There Light At The End Of The PIPE?
    http://onforb.es/16dNezb

     

    <<
    It’s a sort of prisoner’s dilemma: if all shareholders would just hold on, or even buy into price declines, they can prevent the financing from creating a self-fulfilling death spiral.

     

    Could Be Worse

     

    That said, this is far from the worst such convertible financing I have seen.....
    >>
    25 Jul 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1208) | Send Message
     
    For the first time since July 2009, I do not own AXPW. Because TK knows more about investing than I do.

     

    I will continue to watch and root for the company, and for the technology.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    "In my second scenario, which I consider most likely. the note holders will attempt to drive the share price down in the short term, when there are a lot of convertible payments ahead of them, but ease up in the later months to avoid destroying the value of a company they will own a substantial portion of. In the scenario I modeled, they succeed in driving the price down below 5 cents in the September-October time frame, after which it begins to recover. This would result in the issuance of 111 million new shares, more than are currently authorized. However, as discussed above, it seems likely that shareholders would approve additional share issuance if the only alternative is bankruptcy. This scenario would result in the note holders owning nearly 50% of the company for their $10 million investment, or about 9 cents a share."

     

    I agree with him.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    How can the PIPE investors own nearly half the company when they are selling the shares they receive in order to reduce the price so they can get more shares. They lose the first shares they receive in order to get more later. Since the shares are spread over nine months it would be very difficult for them to accumulate many shares. It seems in the worst case they would own far less than 50%.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for telling us, D Lane. Good luck to you.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    The only way the PIPE investors get nearly 50% of the company is for current investors to panic and sell, thinking it is the PIPE investors who are selling to drive the price down.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    The financing agreement limits the amount of stock the financiers can hold to less than 5%.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: Strong hands help. Having said that who accounts for the 1.5MM+ *sustained* short interest? My point is that, as I've been suggesting, the PIPE investors have no incentive to support price right now.

     

    They benefit by price decrease.

     

    The short began to build just ahead of the PIPE announcement.

     

    As Jethro Gibbs says, there are no coincidences.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    HT, my beef is with Tom's accuracy when he claims the PIPE investors will own nearly 50% of the company. If the worse case scenario takes place and all the shares are issued, the PIPE investors can only own a fraction of them. His article communicates an impossible scenario, further causing panic among investors.

     

    I did post my earlier comment on the Forbes web site.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: As yoyomama mentions, "Equity Conditions" can leave them owning a lot more than might be imagined when the full-ratchet anti-dilution provisions kick in. I've not done the math - no interest in going down that hole.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    FPA, they get approx. 60 million shares, that is more than 5% of the company. If they "have" to sell that many to stay down to 5% it is a disaster.
    I think that 5% may have been any one investor, not the Maxim group as a whole.
    6 investors at 5% each is 30%, 10 investors x 5% = 50%
    25 Jul 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    That is correct LT.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    LT: Correct if I'm wrong, but the limits apply to affiliates of any single entity as well. So if by "Maxim group" you intended legally affliated entities, they would be prohibited from owning more than 4.99% (IIRC) in *aggregate*.

     

    That makes coordinated action to take control of the company hard(er) and probably would require some illegal actions to accomplish? I don't know.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Maxim was the sales agent for the deal and AFIK the only relationship between the buyers is that they all have accounts with Maxim. It is unclear if any of the buyers are using Maxim for their trading accounts.

     

    It would be a ton of fun if there was a way to prove that the buyers were a "group acting in concert" because that would create a world of issues under the securities law. I have to believe the buyers are all smart enough to avoid those issues.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    and what about the broken deal thing below 10 cents?
    25 Jul 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2388) | Send Message
     
    SAFT LI-ION BATTERIES START ROLLING OUT TO GERMANY’S RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET WITHIN BOSCH’S HYBRID INTELLIGENT ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND STORAGE SOLUTION

     

    http://bit.ly/1c60PNR

     

    "Paris, July 24, 2013 – Saft, the world’s leading designer and manufacturer of advanced technology batteries for industry, has entered high volume series production of the state-of-the-art lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries that form the heart of Bosch’s BPT-S 5 Hybrid intelligent energy management and storage solution aimed at Germany’s fast-growing residential PV (photovoltaic) electricity self-use/self-consumption sector.

     

    ...

     

    fully certified and safety tested, including the Li-ion batteries, and Bosch already has over 350 installers fully trained and ready to deploy the units across Germany."

     

    Saft Li-ion technology proved its capability to meet the performance, reliability and safety needs of domestic users in the Sol-ion project that introduced Li-ion batteries into PV systems on the largest scale ever tested in Europe,” says François Bouchon, Director of Energy Storage at Saft. “Now, with this very important product for Bosch, we are building on the Sol-ion foundation as Saft Li-ion batteries are truly making the transition into the commercial arena.”
    25 Jul 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    WTB, Just saw this article on German storage.

     

    Germany’s Energy Storage Subsidy Is No Solar Miracle

     

    "Why would a homeowner on a very stable electrical grid want to generate and store electricity?"

     

    http://bit.ly/1bRc9i7
    25 Jul 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1208) | Send Message
     
    Thanks wtb and nice to see you post again.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    jveal, that is how it works. They sell just a few shares in a thinly traded company and the question has already been asked "who is buying the shares that are sold"? It is the PIPERS. They buy back 3-5x the shares they sell while driving price down.

     

    This just shows what a dire situation AXPW got itself into.

     

    One thing for sure, the PIPER is going to own 30-50% of AXPW for $10 million. Eventually this % of ownership will bring drastic changes at AXPW. In many cases 35% is considered "controlling interest".
    IF this all happens as TK has laid out, one thing for sure is that "Change" is coming sooner rather than later.

     

    I am not sure it goes to .05 either. .10 or less is enough maybe even .12. If I were TG, I would be raising cash to get rid of these guys no matter what. Other options he had may look good before this is over.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully they can find a new dynamic CFO that can save the company by finding better financing alternatives in the not so distant future! But I don't have a good view of what's really happening since I am still strapped here in my seatbelt!
    25 Jul 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    RB357, I'm starting to shade my view here since I'm strapped in witcha. Vision is very murky.

     

    Worst case tho . . . . . PIPEs end up with significant majority. Will the technology still win out? 'Spect so. We'd just have a lot less of it.

     

    Here's to the hope of good news quickly because good news delayed seems not so good.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    V,

     

    Agreed.

     

    The subject regarding the financing has been beaten to death here. As has been mentioned in the past that "it's all up to the battery now" is not going to save the current investors. The only thing that will save us current investors is "if" TG comes through real soon with a PO with revenues attached!

     

    The question is how much trust does one have in TG in regards to pulling tht magical rabbit holding the PO out of his hat in a timely manner? I will admit that I am no longer a trusting long term investor and am wishing that I would not have shared my excitement of this Axion story with some of my friends! With that said, if/when the rabbit is pulled out and the clouds part and the sun shines on New Castle along with the rest of us these dark days will make us really appreciate the sun on our faces! Since I am currently hanging out in Florida I am a believer that the cloudy days don't last very long and the sun dominates down here but New Castle is located in Pennsylvania and since I was born and raised less than 20 miles from the Axion plant I know that the sun does not always dominate there!

     

    Time to go walk on the beach and clear my head!
    25 Jul 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    LT: "This just shows what a dire situation AXPW got itself into".

     

    IMO, their situation was/is not dire. It's ours that is dire *if* we react in certain ways. Axion had options if financing had not come through. Wouldn't have been good though.

     

    E.g: if one adopts obieephyhm's mindset, there is no dire situation.

     

    Even my mindset sees no "direness", only a hated financing methodology that, in my ignorance, I feel *might* have been better if some comments to the investor community would have been made public earlier. And then I wander back to a time I suggested, as did others, that warrants to existing shareholders might be the ticket. That may or may not have been reasonable then but it sure looks a whole lot better than what we've got now.

     

    Anyway, just wanted to emphasize that what *we* see as deleterious to *our* (short/medium-term, and maybe even longer-term?) best interests doesn't mean the company is in dire circumstances. IMO, lack of near or medium-term prospects would be dire and that's not the case AFAICT.

     

    There's a big difference in investing decisions depending on which party is seen to be in dire straights.

     

    IMO, it was and is not the company.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    HTL - "dire straights" . . . or Zen and the Art of Investing . . .
    25 Jul 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    obieephyhm: "Zen and the Art of Investing"

     

    If I'd read that one instead of "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" one when I was young maybe I'd be on an island somewhere now. :-P

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jul 2013, 06:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Advice to new buyers to exit and move to the sidelines makes sense. However, I don't think it makes sense for long-term holders to dump as they are already so far down that don't have much left to loose.

     

    I do think the article will shape new and current investors away from making new buys, and that will influence the share price trajectory to follow his scenery 2.

     

    However, I noticed that he missed the consequences of what happens if the VWAP drops below .10. If that happens, the pay-backs have to be made in cash with a 25% penalty. That would act to shorten the operating runway. If the company needs to get additional financing while the terms of the current PIPE are still in effect, the financiers have to be included in the loop.

     

    Nothing has really changed for long term holders. Everyone knows the company needs something big in the very near future.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    FPA, I think you're dead on. This going to be a sickening ride I'm afraid. I'm like the old commercial " Help. I've fallen and I can't get up!"

     

    If I sell I contribute to the mess, but my fear is that all of those red numbers I've got will become really really big. I hope one day this will be funny, but I ain't laughin' now. :>)
    25 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    FPA: "have to be made in cash with a 25% penalty"

     

    Correction: the holders have the *option* of requesting cash with that penalty. It is *not* mandatory, as detailed in a prior comment (seems so long ago, easily forgotten).

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood. Valleywood? Valleywood!?!? An imposter has stolen your account!!! Hey. When I have felt down and afraid, I have gone and searched for your comments to reread and cheer me up. What has happened to you? What do you understand better today than yesterday when you were backing up the truck? Snap out of it. I need you.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it is a 'May', but the purpose of that kind of clause is protection against not being able to sell large quantities of the stock. A drop to 10 cents per share would mean the tranche payment at that point would consist of 10 M shares. The financiers would than have to liquidate 10 M shares before the next tranche payment. As they are selling the shares, the price would be expected to drop. If they don't think they can move the shares without collapsing the share price, than they would take the cash repayment with a 25% sweetener. They probably think the market will start having difficulties absorbing that many shares at that price point. These guys will get their money and profit no matter what.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Yoyomama, I'm here, baybe-e-e-eee !

     

    I've never said I wasn't terrified. I simply bought because I believed we are so close. I still do. Mid Sept, maybe even Sept 1.

     

    Today however we have had a widely followed professional state clearly how vulnerable we are. Not good news today. That's the end of new money buying in seems to me, so he has become a prophet in my mind. Not a bad guy, after all we asked him to do the analysis and put him in an awkward place.

     

    Spent every spare nickel I could yesterday buying and have no further dry powder. At this point I'm betting on delivery of good news. If none is forthcoming then I know payday is much farther down the pike and the wages will be much lower.

     

    Happy Face next post.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Agreed and Yes - they will get their $ no matter what.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "I don't think it makes sense for long-term holders to dump as they are already so far down that don't have much left to loose. "

     

    IMO the only rational justification to hold Axion at this point is expectation of in near future of positive commercial development(s) of significant magnitude. I continue to hold AXPW on strength of such expectation while keeping in mind the shrink rate on that window of opportunity (akin to decay in value of options).
    25 Jul 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Still think you are an imposter. We'll see with your next post.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Yoyomama,

     

    Consider two points. First, if the PIPEs acquire too many shares too early they make themselves vulnerable to a real investor group coming in and making their lives very miserable.

     

    Second if they continue to let the price slide they are extremely limited in how much money they can make. Beginning in September however they may very well be best served by letting the price run. My back of the napkin numbers say they can snap up 300% on their money rather easily and slip out the door with easy profits. I suspect they're just trying to make money going down as well as up.

     

    Tom Konrad's article suggests the first objective of the plumbers is to grab control of the company for $10M. I'm not so sure. And there are two risks to their plan (if they have one). First, big investors can come in and sweep up enuff equity to clip their wings. Second, good news could eliminate the plan anyway. But whatever the case they seem compelled to dribble the ball any time they can.

     

    Sigh.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Ah, I'm so relieved. I will call off the Search and Rescue. :-)
    25 Jul 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    VW, my mother in law used to say "be careful what you ask for, you might get it" .... I say this in re: to TK's writing about AXPW.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    VW: "Second if they continue to let the price slide they are extremely limited in how much money they can make".

     

    Meshes with another TFH product sparked by a PM with someone. IIRC, the registration effective date was ~6/5. So a new tranche of shares could be issued around 8/5? If that's the case and some of the financiers want to flip out at a "reasonable" profit quickly, they now have a reason to keep share price up.

     

    With the current 85% price at $0.1302, if they can hold price >= $0.16, they turn a very quick 22.9% profit when they flip. Then they can let 'er drop again for the next cycle if nothing comes out that makes price run up.

     

    Maybe that 'splains today's, through 13:28, 1.59:1 buy:sell w/VWAP of $0.1623 when the TK article would suggest different results should be seen.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Collins
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    I expect that sometime within the next 6 to 12 months major positive news will be released and this stock will skyrocket. All the fear and frustration that we shareholders feel today will be but a distant memory.

     

    Except for those shareholders who panicked and sold a promising company for pennies. They will be kicking themselves for having backed out of a great opportunity.

     

    Is this stock a sure thing? No, it's a risky micro cap penny stock. We knew that getting into it. But there's a very good chance this stock will be worth a whole lot more in the not too distant future.

     

    I don't want to contradict TK, as he has a great deal more investing experience than I do, but I see his PIPE fears as a worst case scenario. There is risk definitely, but once business deals finally start moving and the price starts rising, I think the damage will be minimized. And after all, if it was easy, everyone would be a millionaire.

     

    I'm no Valleywood, but I hope that helps.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    I
    25 Jul 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    I was going to write --- It does help, Rick Collins. It helps a lot.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Yoyomama, In the future if you post something by accident or it needs correction/clarification there is an edit option right under the post you just submitted. There is a short period of time where you can make changes and resubmit the post or delete it if you so desire. :)

     

    It's invaluable for people like me. Not that you'd know it based on my posts!
    25 Jul 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • brianfscott
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    I love despair. It makes for such lovely buying opportunities!
    25 Jul 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, iindelco. That's what I'll do next time.
    25 Jul 2013, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    FPA. I basically agree. While having brought this investment up to people in the past, it's embarrassing now and has been for some time.

     

    Overall, a sobering analysis outlining some of the real risks to owning this stock.
    25 Jul 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I'd never sell with BMW and NSC in the works for 2013. Not even the PIPE investors can crush those news. Remember we are not the only ones looking at Axion. Berkowitz from BlackRock was on the last CC asking questions. So did a couple other analysts. Axion is on their radar, and any one fund moving in will steam roll the PIPE investors. I will hear out TG during the Sept annual meeting before making any decisions. Until then, I will be buying more shares.
    25 Jul 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Bless you, Ranma for buying more. FPA says I don't have much left to lose, but actually . . . .

     

    For reasons I can't remember I seem to recall BlackRock was an original owner of this party early on. Am I making that up? Is this another case where I remember clearly what never happened?

     

    JP, your ears on?

     

    HTL ??
    25 Jul 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    VW: Can't recall if BR was original, but they have apparently been present on several CCs over the last couple of years. John would know.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    Blackrock was an investor in Axion's 2009 financing and I believe they sold their shares at a loss in the 2011 to 2012 timeframe. Unfortunately trying to use SEC filings in an effort to track what Blackrock owns or doesn't own is darned near impossible because they have so many reporting entities.

     

    Howard Berkowitz has been on the line for a couple of Axion CCs. The first time I heard his name he was with Blackrock, however he retired from that post in March 2012, so if I had to pick a likely scenario I'd speculate that he bought a stake in Axion for his personal portfolio.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    I also will be buying more. I intend to buy at least enough to offset any dilution that will occur due to the increase in Axion shares outstanding.

     

    I recognize the logic of selling in order to buy back as the PIPE investors cause the price to go down. But I'm in for the long haul and want to benefit from the impact of announcements from BMW or NSC. Seems to me that if BMW announces that they will be using Axion batteries, there isn't going to be anyone selling shares at 25 cents so I can get in on the upward ride. In my view the potential gains from selling don't offset the risks of losing out on the upside. This is the flaw in TK's suggested strategy: you may not be able to find anyone to sell you stock at the price you want if something really good is announced.

     

    I recall a few years ago JP had an instablog where he showed how fast the shares went up of a few companies he had been involved with. Maybe those who are considering selling might want to look at those graphs again.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    In October 2012 I posted an Instablog that was a crude effort to track selling by the big uglies based on FINRA daily short sale data.

     

    http://bit.ly/R5OAEA

     

    There's no way to know for sure because the 13G/A filing from May that IinDelco linked below basically told the SEC "We no longer own 5% of this company and have no future duty to report our holdings."
    25 Jul 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    With the stock price so low I was wondering whether "jump events" are something that could happen in the nano-company arena? Assuming we have some great news coming in from more than just BMW, can the stock (realistically) gap up several hundred percent in the matter of a few days? I have never seen it, but again my experience with tiny companies - besides Axion- is non existent.

     

    Thanks
    A
    26 Jul 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I think a 100%+ gap requires a change you can put a number to - like an upfront cash payment by a partner. Other vague news will have a sub 100% gap but ramp up from there.
    26 Jul 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    RAnma, the Upfront cash payment is what AXPW must have to stop the bleeding. I know it's easier said than done, but that has to be the goal.
    26 Jul 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Hey John!

     

    See lots of good-sized trades going off here that are "buys" when the TK stuff should be making "sells". Just thought I'd holler and say let's see if the next semi-monthly short report shows a drop and remember the response to the TK as a (maybe, maybe) useful indicator of "what's next" in these situations.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Through 12:31 buy:sell 1.23:1 - so someone is still bullish or, as I wonder about, covering their short position. If it's the latter, it suggests they think there's not much downside risk here and more upside risk - time to pare back their short position.

     

    I have *no* knowledge that a shorter is covering, but the blocks have been larger than normal and more "buys" than would be expected on "bad" TK assessment.

     

    But $ values are small for larger players ...

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Darn tin-foil hat just wont quit! Alternate to shorter covering, and/or fence-sitters saying what the heck and buying, is ... "news leak".

     

    No way I know, but don't want to overlook possibilities here.

     

    Did anyone see, because you may not hear, NS-999 whiz by their window? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    cute. very cute. :>)
    25 Jul 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "Did anyone see, because you may not hear, NS-999 whiz by their window? :-))"

     

    LOL! Stealth mode.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1431) | Send Message
     
    The idea gaining traction here that supply-demand isssues will be forever divorced from issues of price/value and underlying fundamental developments strikes me as so much nonsense. At any time, we could get news that would not be unexpected and would dramatically alter perceptions of the value of this company in a very positive manner. The idea that some "investors" can drive the price of AXPW below 5c simply because they would benefit from such a scenario and independent of fundamental developments at the company is absurd.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29569) | Send Message
     
    The real absurdity is that PIPE investors don't benefit from driving the price down and keeping it down. They benefit from driving the price down long enough to ensure that their first couple payments involve huge numbers of shares and then letting the stock run in the other direction so they can sell the stock at a big markup from the price that prevailed during the measurement period.

     

    The other bad impact of driving the price ever lower is that it discourages potential long investors and makes ever larger numbers of shares increasingly difficult to turn into cash.

     

    I'm trying to find a way to present the dynamic in an easy to follow format, but haven't gotten there yet.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1416) | Send Message
     
    I agree, and I think we have already drawn a line in the sand where investors thought the stock was too good a bargain to pass up, PIPE investors be damned. The downside risk is truly limited here, IMO. Tom Konrad may be right in principle, but I believe his recommendation would have been valid when the stock was still 25-30 cents at the time of the financing. Now that it's been cut in half, it's not likely going lower. Konrad wasn't around to gauge how Axionistas value the company.
    25 Jul 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    If the PIPE let the stock run up, wouldn't they make more money when they exercise their 17 Million shares of warrant @.302 within the next 5 years?

     

    How much money can the PIPE make by keeping the price down and keeping it down vs how much they can make if they let it run ?
    25 Jul 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    23808: It's all a matter of "when". IMO, over the remaining months they will have reason to push it down for extended periods and then let run up for short periods. Over the duration they want down as low as they can get it w/o scaring off the future buyers, and maybe around share issue times, current potential buyers. Depends on the strategy of the individual financier participants I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Interesting exchange on TK's article:

     

    Dear Mr. Konrad
    Thank you for this report; however, this stock is to me a game that I play. At .16 per share, I am willing to take a loss on my shares as I think this firm is a winner in the long run. When I started to accumulate this stock last year, I was aware that it was a long term penny scale of purchase.To management, I hope that you succeed with both the trucks, switcher and overseas.

     

    Tom Konrad, Contributor 1 hour ago
    Axion is lucky to have so many long term, dedicated shareholders like you.

     

    I agree. Axion is lucky to have so many long term, dedicated shareholders.
    25 Jul 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Also interesting is how few comments there actually are, unlike articles about the car-maker-that-we-do-n... Nobody is reading it, or nobody cares but us. I think the article won't hurt much more after today.
    25 Jul 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Or that omy doesn't appear to be posting b/c the article is negative towards Axion??
    25 Jul 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    Omy probably hasn't gotten off his shift at Tim Horton's. (s)He'll show, he always does...
    25 Jul 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (752) | Send Message
     
    2k views for this one instead of over 7k for the first.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: "2k views for this one instead of over 7k for the first"

     

    Just demonstrates that no one likes "bad news". Human nature wants to believe everything works out well.

     

    I think that's why so few humans in the world population commit suicide.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Jul 2013, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    >Ranma — RE: "Konrad wasn't around to gauge how Axionistas value the company."
    .........................

     

    EXACTLY! --- I'm a bit dismayed that some here may be putting TK on some kind of unwarranted pedestal. Yes, he publishes articles in Forbes, but I don't think that gives him credentials that should elevate his "wisdom" over that of the collective wisdom that's on this board. Personally, I don't believe he described the pros and cons of owning Axion in a way that was clearly enunciated. Just one example, here’s a couple of his strong concluding comments:

     

    [At the end of the first article] — “I’m extremely optimistic about Axion Power’s business prospects over the next twelve months. I anticipate a breakthrough in at least one of the four business areas I outlined.” — [At the end of the second article] — “You’ll have to decide for yourselves if you want to find out if the light at the end of the PIPE is an all-electric NS 999 switcher locomotive, or get out now before being sucked down a death spiral.”

     

    So....... He anticipates a breakthrough in AT LEAST one of four business areas, but then seems to indicate that EVERYTHING depends on the NS999. — I don’t dismiss the fact that he’s extremely knowledgeable in a lot of things [that I never will be], but I do have a problem with the somewhat disconnected rhetorical flourish he finished up with.

     

    I noticed we’re now trading around the same price we were at the beginning of the week before Tom’s articles. As far as being careful what we wish for because we just might get it: — Despite what I view as some of TK’s somewhat limited perceptions from not evaluating Axion as deeply and as long as most of here have, I’m grateful for his articles, and the extra exposure it’s given Axion. I suspect more investors will be watching this stock, doing their own risk/reward analysis, and considering whether to try to take advantage of the potential for “explosive growth” [from TK’s title]. — I think the sidelines got a little more crowded this week.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    What's the old adage that JP talks about - "I don't care what you say about me, just spell my name right."
    25 Jul 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    I would agree with most of what you say, WIO While I recognize the value in the TK's of the world 'making a market' as part of their constant media churn, I remind myself that I must be cognizant that it *is* media churn with correspondingly light half-lives.

     

    I'm just not bright enough to ever 'time' a market. I make my buy/sell decisions based upon my dd and try to check my emotion at the door. If I'm in, and any media pundit pans the stock for anything less than stellar reasons (and, even then) it becomes a buying opportunity to add or it moves temporarily to a hold, at worst. If the market temporarily goes nutzo over it because of the same or some other media pundit, I bide my time until the inevitable pendulum swing goes my way. In short, apart from accumulating more stock, daily market moves are something I mostly ignore.

     

    I have a FYR for every stock I invest in. I don't buy it unless I am willing to hold it for Five Years (hence, the Five Year Rule or FYR) regardless of anything but the nastiest financial downfalls. That means I need to do decent due-diligence. If I miss the start of a long-term upswing but become comfortable to buy-and-hold, then so be it. If I catch it when it's temporarily a little soft, bonus.

     

    In 30 years of investing, I've found that I've made far far more than I've lost following this rule because good companies work out of bad situations by superior management and time to work the problem. And by the time the media pundits come back around to sing their praises at the 'new' old company, I've already built a good core position.

     

    I'm sure traders like TK (and maybe some of you, hell, all of you) would say I'm nuttier than Mr. Peanut but that's how I do it and why. I need to sleep at night and I need to know my own limitations.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    WiO, I agree totally on the advertisement and exposure. I am in no way saying the stock goes to .05 or even much lower than here.

     

    There is much merit in the downside being limited anywhere below where we are.
    I think the big thing in TK's article was that he had plenty of time to buy the stock after they have concrete news and PO's and catch most of the run up.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    WIO,
    There are many contrarian investors out there that "buy low and sell high". TK may have done us a great favor in showing how much potential blood there is in the streets VS the winning potential of the tech. At these prices small cap gamblers would have little to lose and much to gain (potentially).

     

    Any blackjack or acey-duecy players out there?
    25 Jul 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    "Any blackjack or acey-duecy players out there?" That's why I'm still here. Trying to figure out whether I should double down.
    25 Jul 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • VictorG45
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
     
    I hear you obiee, I bought into Axion with exactly the same time frame.
    Regards,
    Victor
    25 Jul 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2104) | Send Message
     
    Victor,

     

    Isn't it funny how expectation of imminent news and "dire" pronouncements have driven the words "sock drawer" from the discussion, when that was a common theme not too many months ago?
    25 Jul 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Toxic funding rounds ignite everything flammable they come into contact with, including, er, socks.
    25 Jul 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    OT

     

    Not my generation but a fitting song? Not the most offensive record rotation fwd, bkwd, fwd, bkwd .... song. Maybe a good distraction for those rearranging the sock drawer?

     

    Sock Drawer Blues

     

    http://bit.ly/11hEEj2
    25 Jul 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >WayneInOregon ... I think Tom Konrad was just using NS999 to illustrate the tunnel light. On the other hand, Axion has a lot riding those rails. I disagree with "Valleywood" when he said "But for purposes of Axion we have already won the big prize. NS has publicly stated we are the best bet for their application to date no matter the subsequent outcome." because without it rolling (at least in field trials) it might be surmised that Axion is the best but just not good enough. I my book that would be failure.

     

    Axion is starving for an commercial application. Much as I like ePower and think they, alone, could be huge, nothing I can think of says pass/fail more than a Fortune 500.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    All in all I think the Tom Konrad article was fair. The only thing I take exception with is the recommendation to short Axion. I think this is not a wise move given where Axion is in their customer relationships. But if given only the PIPE info. I'd agree but his perspective is late.

     

    As far as the article is concerned. If I was the editor of Forbes I'd let him write the article however I'd let him know up front that he can give any opinion he wants but can't recommend the stock. If I was him and in his position I'd never recommend penny stocks. By and large it's not good practice, if you wish to be respected in the financial community, to give penny stock recommendations. And the odds of it being to your benefit are against you. So why do it?

     

    As to the depth of the article. Given what we have for contributors in this forum, why would anyone expect his article to contain anything as deep as what we can get here? It's just good for exposure and it's always good to get an outsider to give another perspective.

     

    JMO.
    25 Jul 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1431) | Send Message
     
    "I think this stock is a sell at 17c because, within days, I will release for widespread dissemination an article speculating on a price drop below 5c a share." (Must be nice to be able to make self-fulfilling prophecies.)
    25 Jul 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Alphameister ... It's only self-fulfilling if Axion shareholders buy into and become former shareholders. I think sustained buying of what they're selling is the best way to crack the PIPE but it is unrealistic to think the Axionista community can tote that barge load of stocks all by itself ... again. Right or wrong, and I don't know what is true, I feel the Axionistas did a big chunk of floating the share price the previous time Axion went down to the river looking for sustenance.

     

    It will take New shareholders. How about this, Axion management actually finding an investor(s) whose interest is aligned with the company ... just to help out ... in lieu of getting some ink on paper ... unless, maybe, both could happen.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    Just day dreaming:
    Axion management knows Axionistas interest are aligned with the company. All the management has to do is to sell something to Axionistas that will benefit both the Company and the long term hoders: Axionistas.

     

    How about special interest corporate bonds/ restrict shares to Axionistas investors. The restriction on these notes/shares : the Axionistas cannot sell them for couple of years. These note/share holders will be the senior holders/ first on line to collect if the company goes under. For the Axionistas to take the risk and tie up their funds for a time period, the company will reward them by giving them interest on the notes and low price stock options.
    25 Jul 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    well, I'm not immune to dreaming . . . 4.5 years from now, I'd like a stock running in the, say, $40-50 range and paying a reasonable and growing dividend.

     

    that'll pay for the retirement pretty darn well, methinks . . . er, well . . . dreams.

     

    (yes, those *are* the sort of thoughts drifting through my head as I wander off to sleepy-land).
    25 Jul 2013, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Hi everyone!!!

     

    Here I am and here I remain.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    25 Jul 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1826) | Send Message
     
    I'm still here.
    25 Jul 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    OT

     

    D. McHattie => http://bit.ly/18FIjNp
    25 Jul 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: "recommendation to short Axion"

     

    With no disparagement of TKs POV or chops, I do think he made a noticeable risk/reward error in considering shorting a $0.17 stock for anything other than hedging or being one of the financiers.

     

    Maximum profit is $0.17 if BK, maximum loss theoretically unlimited. Practically, even assuming a medium-term upside of say $0.50, the risk reward doesn't look good for a trade because of the unpredictability of the news and the predictability of the pps action if the news is "major".

     

    If he's up on just the NSC stuff, he'll be aware that there's likely something out of them early calendar Q1 latest. He knows that Axion is several months into working out a deal to address BMW's sole source concerns, so how many more months can that take?

     

    And then the "unknown unknowns" - RFPs for grid storage, APU, ...

     

    Overall, I think that was just a "throw away" line for effect - demonstrate how strongly he views the PIPE financing risks.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8850) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. I agree with what you say.
    -
    LT, For me if/when there is any major news this will move the stock. With speculative stocks the sight of or smell from the table gets a reaction long before the food favors the palate.

     

    BTW, The recent article had the 10 sets of PbC batteries shown on the ePower truck. So they are already all delivered. Your timing might be more accurate for when they will be fully installed in trucks.

     

    Anyway, as always, Axion needs some meaty news and this becomes a reality more and more as time passes. But hey, that's not exactly news. That's just reality with any business.
    25 Jul 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    HTL, During the Q1 CC TG said they were several months into the process of eliminating the BMW sole source issue and we are 10 weeks further down that road and only 3 weeks away from Q2 CC. If no news by 8-15 we should hear something.

     

    3 weeks can be a long time!

     

    Kent
    25 Jul 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    KentG: "3 weeks can be a long time!"

     

    Yes, when I was younger. Now it's just a "where'd it go?" ?:-\

     

    "we are 10 weeks further down that road"

     

    This concerns me more than anything because of my ignorance. I know JP and Iindelco and maybe others have mentioned how long these things can take and "several months along" is a bit imprecise. I would sure like to hear a positive outcome announced before the Q report - would really help reduce the amount of anticipated dilution as TK's scenario would certainly be (at least partially) off the table and the "confirmation" of Axion as a "commercial enterprise" with a commercially acceptable and desirable product would have a large effect on investor decisions.

     

    And I don't want to minimize the possible effect of any possible up-front license fees that might result.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jul 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... I think that a PbC in a 2016 model auto is about as soon as it could happen. I feel that an announcement before .... maybe ... November would be miraculous (I like miracles) and nothing announced by April 2014 would mean 2017-2018 or nothing at all. It is still going to take probably 18 months to get to production.
    25 Jul 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    I agree with DRich when he disagreed with VW. I'd see a no sale as a failure also. :>)

     

    But to your unknown unknowns: I still think the next (good) shoe to fall will be a customer we have never (or not seriously) considered yet. I include the "not seriously" qualifier because I think we've considered every electrical gadget known to man and some that aren't. I'm still trying to figure out if I can get one of those for my electric toothbrush. Maybe we could sell them in muscle mags. Anybody who could actually use them would be a gorilla indeed.
    25 Jul 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    DRich, so if your speculation is accurate ( & it seems reasonable to me) then it seems we would definitely need another cash infusion. So if we assume we cannot find proper white knight type investors, would you rather have another secondary or another PIPE?

     

    I guess I would prefer a straight up secondary because then I could calculate my dilution right off the bat rather than fret every EOB as to when the plumbers are up to next.

     

    And secondarily, lacking firm income, what is the nature of news that would convince you a secondary would have no impact whatsoever? i.e. would a BMW announcement be enuff to provide flotation in a secondary that seems almost certainly coming at us right now?
    25 Jul 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (752) | Send Message
     
    Well you have to think that the ePower system would work on ships.
    KRAL Volumeter®. Fuel Consumption
    Measurement for Diesel Engines.
    http://bit.ly/18Cmo6k
    25 Jul 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue
    ePower is making a setup that will work for 70% or so of trucks and their routes.
    While ships would use far more batteries per ship, I have trouble not thinking or them as a one time sale.
    A single battery electric or hybrid ship would require as much work from Axion as ePower's set up for thousands of trucks.
    I would expec