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  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    Shazam! --- (And no, I'm not of the same sexual orientation as Gomer Pyle). ;-)
    27 Jul 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    But WiO, can you sing like Gomer ?
    27 Jul 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    In the small world department, my first wife's uncle claims to have printed the invitations for a Hudson-Neighbors commitment ceremony at the Camelback Inn in Paradise Valley Arizona in the late 60s.

     

    Snopes says it's a vicious rumor, but I heard it direct from the printer.

     

    http://bit.ly/13Ochdk

     

    I do have to admit, however, that I never saw the paper with my own eyes.
    27 Jul 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    Second?

     

    Here I am and here I will remain.
    Nothing scares me: TK or PIPE, I trust only in the PbC Tech.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    27 Jul 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Oye, Carlos. Cuando tengas un momento, quizás puedas pasar a animar a Valleywood. Él sí todavía tiene miedo aunque finge que no. Muchas gracias.
    27 Jul 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Yoyo, it's not as bad as it seems. I just don't want to lose my play money. Stalwart investing is fine, but it's boring. Axion is just a whole lot more fun. And a whole lot more profitable (hope hope hope). Besides, I need a fishing boat !

     

    Yoyo, where are you? And while I'm at it,

     

    Carlos, where are you?
    27 Jul 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Alas, Valleywood, nowhere near you. I live in Ridgecrest. CA and teach Spanish at the high schools on Edwards Air Force Base and in Boron. I´m not a native speaker, though. I happened upon this career quite by accident, a long story. Soon, I will have to get back to school and won´t have as much time to play with you all, as you put it.
    27 Jul 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Don´t worry, Valleywood. If Axion goes down the pipes, I will just have to work many more years, and I will buy you some wading boots so you can fish. Life will be sweet no matter what.
    27 Jul 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Yoyomama, Life IS sweet !

     

    If you could see where I live, the movie star I married, my kids & grandkids + two great dogs you'd understand. I'm living the dream.

     

    But like most God's children I want just a bit more. Me? I want just one time in my life to crush the ball over the fence. That's why I'm here.

     

    I just whine 'cause it's fun. Thanks for your kind words.

     

    Cheers !
    28 Jul 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    So, when is the "PbC -vs- AGM -vs- Li-ion" video going to be released so it can go viral?
    27 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    You know, maybe we can bootleg this thing.... only problem is, we need to get our hands on some PbCs....somehow... hmm...what to do, what to do.... maybe a commando raid on RK's island? ;)
    28 Jul 2013, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    Hi YoYo!!

     

    Con mucho gusto.

     

    Saludos-Carlos.
    27 Jul 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Carlos !

     

    de donde ?
    28 Jul 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    De aquí!!!
    28 Jul 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >carlos ... That's funny.
    28 Jul 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    In APC #216, Carlos gives us a hint: near Armenia, Quindio. Very beautiful!
    28 Jul 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    VW: IIRC, Carlos is in Columbia?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    H.T Love:

     

    Como esta mi amigo?
    Columbia no, Colombia.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    28 Jul 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Carlos: olvida me por favor!

     

    We have cities here spelled that way.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Carlos, thanks.
    28 Jul 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Good Morning Weekend Axionistas...

     

    A friend would like to replace her Zenn EV and wrongly assumed that I was up-to-date on such things. Thankfully I know a group of people who are well versed in this area. I asked her for a prioritized list and here it is:

     

    Fuel Economy
    Green (the real shade of green)
    Total Cost of Ownership
    Reliability/Longevity (she wants this to be her last car)
    Warranty

     

    If you could spare the time this weekend to offer an opinion I would be extremely grateful. There have been a couple of you that have made purchases within the last year. What did your list look like and what was your final decision?

     

    Please don't stick this fine woman with my reasoning alone...
    27 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Toyota Prius gets my vote as the best possible choice, and if she really wants a plug she can have one.

     

    If she needs something a little bigger, I'd go with the ePower tractor.
    27 Jul 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    The Prius was where my first thoughts went to as the safest recommendation. Its been in production longer than the others by a fair margin. What about the Ford Fusion Hybrid? or how about a mico-hybrid pushing the 50 mpg mark?

     

    She is going to hold out on the ePower thing until its available in a glider kit...
    27 Jul 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    That may happen sooner than you think unless using gliders would present nasty EPA compliance obstacles that can be avoided with rebuilds.
    27 Jul 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    I drive a Honda Insight which is the same form-factor as the Prius. It is much less expensive than the Prius but also gets significantly less gas mileage (I get about 40mpg with most of my driving in-city with little highway and suburban driving).

     

    I'm sure the better fuel economy of the Prius does not make up for its higher price vs. the Insight but I would believe it is better appointed and has a better ride. I would also strongly guess that it is stronger from a resale perspective. That last point can be easily researched.
    27 Jul 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Glider kits do not have EPA compliance issues which is why they are so popular...
    27 Jul 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Here's an OK overview of the Prius tech. for anyone interested.

     

    http://bit.ly/17KUVhF

     

    Edit:

     

    About the Zenn. One should always start by knowing what the owner had before and what they like and disliked about the vehicle. Then, also, what they think they need going forward.

     

    http://bit.ly/17KVZlH
    27 Jul 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    ISTM that the modest cost premium of a glider over a rebuild might be worthwhile when the goal is to get ten units into the hands of big fleets with recognizable street creds. For now let's just say the idea is being seriously weighed.
    27 Jul 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: However, the rebuild has the advantage of apples to apples for every data point one cares to look at.

     

    The gliders might have aero improvements, weight improvements or other things that could affect the comparison. ISTM the glider would be ideal when the customer is also buying that model new from a dealer. Then x new and x glider-based ePower units would also give apples to apples comparison ability.

     

    Just thinkin' ...
    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    At this stage it's simply a strategy idea under consideration but the differences are nowhere near as substantial as your imagination makes them out to be. You're literally talking about the difference between apples with wormholes and apples without wormholes.
    27 Jul 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    "Wormholes" LoL!

     

    But that's not imagination - it's my "overlook no detail regardless of significance" analytical side kicking in! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Toilet trained at gunpoint, eh?
    27 Jul 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Oh yeah! :-)) I and probably Monk too.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    HTL: One of the many issues design engineers have to watch out for is the danger (to the schedule) of fixating on 3rd order effects.

     

    "Detail oriented" can easily become an obsession with the trivial.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    SHB: Yep. And as a multi-decade software programmer, and other facets, I learned the hard way what overlooking the "trivial" can produce.

     

    "Designers" hated me sometimes, I think, because I refused to code based on "I assume this is what they meant".

     

    Worst cases were in user interface areas because even if I got them to spec it out, I still often had to re-work because *they* hadn't bothered with the "trivial" during their design sessions with the users and just assumed they knew what was meant, needed, best, ...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Tim, don't let JP pull you in on that dainty ePower thing. Hold out for a TEMLO. They can carry 200 ePower tractors plus a Prius thrown in for snacks. Plus pickup trucks won't push your friend around in traffic.

     

    Parking's tough though . . . . .
    27 Jul 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    Along with the Prius, a friend has a Camry hybrid and another has a Toyota Avalon, both get about 40 mpg average. They both love them. Gives you a choice of car size and luxury too.
    27 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    What did she think of her Zenn EV? The only time I hear about Zenn Motors anymore is in connection with their investment in EEstor's mythical capacitor. I thought I remembered reading they aren't currently releasing vehicles, though I could be wrong.
    27 Jul 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Dastar, From Wiki.

     

    "In September 2009 CEO Ian Clifford announced that ZENN was ceasing car production to concentrate on selling its drive-train technology to other manufacturers. The company confirmed it will launch its 2010 model but not the CityZENN model. The company had only sold a total of 500 vehicles and cited slow sales as a reason for the decision. Production of the ZENN LSV ceased on March 2010, and service support and provision of parts is scheduled to end on June 30, 2013"

     

    Edit: Producing cars up until the time mentioned and ending service support in the middle of 2013 is not favorable for the few buyers.
    27 Jul 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    Ok, my memory served me correctly. They are basically putting all their eggs into the EEstor basket.
    27 Jul 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    dastar, she likes her Zenn but has learned the limitations of an EV and now knows it is not the car for the rest of her life. She was also very disappointed that it is the end of the line for Zenn...
    27 Jul 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    The glider kit is a brand new truck (a 2013/14 serial number) with the engine and transmission not included. I have not recently priced a glider kit but suspect it to be in the $70-80k range. When you consider a list price for a brand new truck in the $140k range things make a little more sense to me. The biggest advantage is that there are more options with financing new vehicles than used.

     

    This would be my approach to a hybrid tractor...
    27 Jul 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    VW, I think overhead lines and bridge problems might prevent us from ever reaching the parking situation <smile>...
    27 Jul 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks for the responses thus far. I am still waiting for the person who just bought to spill their rational for their purchase.

     

    Rick Krementz, you around this weekend?
    27 Jul 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Tim Enright> And there's nothing on earth like that new tractor smell.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Hi Tim, wazzup?
    27 Jul 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Hey Rick, I seem to recall a recent purchase of a Prius hybrid. Am I remembering correctly? I was wondering if you might want to chime in on what took you to make the selection? I have a friend who is considering a new car (see top of thread) and the hybrid market is real confusing to her...
    27 Jul 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Some information on Glider Kits by the leading producer...

     

    http://bit.ly/12TRHFa
    27 Jul 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    http://engt.co/14ny8Ex

     

    Tim, don't know if she still wants to go pure EV, but among them, this looks to be one of the more lesst-crazy options out there...

     

    DTG 1449 PDT 27JUL2013
    28 Jul 2013, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    I don't know nuthin, but it would seem to me that putting together some standard glider kit with an ePower power package is something that could lend itself to a streamlined easily repeatable process (once whatever kinks were worked out for that specific combination) and that such a standardized configuration could lead to a reduction in both labor and assembly time and thus a reduction in delivery cost, further making a new glider+ePower tractor that much more attractive. ePower could quickly find itself in two businesses: retrofits (which certainly wouldn't go away) and making and selling what amount to brand-new tractors. I could see how both could become pretty popular. It's just I would think the production of new tractors could crank up a lot more quickly if everything is standardized to one model chassis... then it just basically becomes cookie cutter, no?

     

    DTG 1439 PDT 27JUL2013
    28 Jul 2013, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    When you look at the way the trucking industry manages vehicles, the drivetrain rebuild business is larger than the OEM drivetrain business.

     

    A heavy truck chassis has a 12 to 15 year service life and a 3 to 4 year rebuild cycle. So every new truck that rolls off the OEM line will have two or three complete overhauls before it retires.

     

    From ePower's perspective the choice between buying used trucks and rebuilding them or buying new gliders and performing a clean install is all about aesthetics.

     

    Do we want to give the customer keys to shiny new that performs like nothing they've ever seen or do we want shiny rebuilt that smells like bean burritos but performs like nothing they've ever seen? Does the aesthetic difference justify the cost difference?

     

    We don't know the answers yet but we are considering the questions.
    28 Jul 2013, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (351) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure you've considered it, but all you have to do is give them trade-in value for the old rig that needs to be rebuilt. That way ePower gets experience with rebuilding different models which they later resell, and is getting revenue and buzz from its strong-performing, sweet-smelling gliders cum eTractors.

     

    Maybe just as importantly, with a new, consistent line of rigs they could brand them:

     

    "Condor" by ePower--glides effortlessly for hours

     

    "Torque" by ePower--Zero to 60 in "I did NOT just see that"

     

    Silly names, but you get the idea.
    28 Jul 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    48, One of the criteria was dependability. I'm not sure that a GM-Daewoo job #1 EV is something I'd go after if dependability over the long haul was a primary criteria. If she's looking for dependability over the long haul (not just JD Powers initial quality) I'd stick with the Prius. Then again if she's looking for that and optimized payback I'd buy a small Toyota with an ICE and she'd have something that's just as dependable, costs less and is probably just as good for the environment if not better. But she'd have to turn in her green shawl which I'd bet means a lot if she went for her former ride. I say this because I'd bet she's not putting on much for mileage if she'd adapted to her prior ride. If you're doing low miles cheap beats efficient. Paying for efficiency is a waste if it's rotting in the driveway.

     

    Example, My mom has a 2004 that was bought at the end of the cy new and it's just scraping 8k miles. In this case initial cost while getting something that met her needs was the only consideration. Efficiency means nothing. It was purchased knowing this.
    28 Jul 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    John, I'm sure that developing the right set of questions and talking to the experts, like our couple of resident experts in trucking, will get you your answers on how to best enter the market. I'd guess both make sense but the initial path might be a little more elusive. But not so much so with a little research with some fleet owners. Not sure the average independent could/would take the risk. The key being average!
    28 Jul 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (1986) | Send Message
     
    "eHawg" by ePower -- "leave them wallowing behind."

     

    "OctoCoaster" -- "the hills are no match for ePower's class 8 pull."
    28 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Renzo> 27 seconds
    28 Jul 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    http://edmu.in/179hpqp

     

    I drove the Ford Fusion and absolutely loved it. But the more fitting replacement for the Zenn would be the C-Max Energi:

     

    http://bit.ly/179hn1V

     

    MUST get the panoramic sunroof.
    28 Jul 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    2013 Toyota Prius 5 year cost of ownership-$32,453

     

    http://aol.it/179jnqF

     

    2013 Toyota Corolla 5 year cost of ownership-$25,949

     

    http://aol.it/179jnqH

     

    About the same size vehicles.

     

    http://edmu.in/179jnqL;sub=

     

    http://edmu.in/179jnqN;sub=
    28 Jul 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    86, Thanks, I think she fully understands the limits of the plug and is looking for something different (funny how that works).

     

    iindelco, Thanks, although it's listed 4th, I think she would really like to have the car 20 years and the Prius has been in production for almost 20 years and might have the best chance of making it the distance. She also brought up the TDI clean diesel so I know she is not opposed to a standard ICE. Do we have a clean diesel in the US?

     

    Edmund, Thanks, The Ford lineup does look really good. The Edmunds link was helpful and I might fiddle with their TCO caclulator.

     

    Edit: Oops, looks like our chief sleuth has beat me to it, thanks iidelco...
    28 Jul 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Tim, VW has a bunch. But I'll tell you that in my opinion the Europeans are not the best in quality by a long shot. Especially VW. I caution you to get her to think about how much she intends to drive. It's important to think about if you're going to be shelling out big bucks for efficiency enhancements. Then again, If it means a lot to her to wear a badge that's OK as well. It's her decision just as long as she's aware.

     

    IMO the more you add to get thee better miles the more risk you have of issues. Simple.

     

    http://bit.ly/179npPX
    28 Jul 2013, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    TE a few questions for your friend:

     

    How old is she? Hard to estimate the vehicle lifespan if we don't know her age.

     

    Also, is a plug in a requirement?

     

    Otherwise, I would recommend one of the new diesels coming out of VW. I rented one on a recent trip and averaged over 60mpg. German diesels Have a very long lifetime.
    28 Jul 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    The C-Max Energi has a 7.6 kWh battery which gets you a full 20 miles of electric-only range. That's a good number for a hybrid, twice the Prius. The whole range of Ford hybrids are really nice inside if you ask me and every review I have read. There are some who think the GUI has a steep learning curve and could be more intuitive. I am in the market for a new car and, like I said, I drove a Fusion Hybrid for a week and loved it, so I've been looking at their hybrids. Full disclosure: I'm biased towards Ford as a Libertarian who will never own another Government Motors car.

     

    Ford's Regenerative Braking tech
    http://bit.ly/12vpJEX

     

    Another Review - this one by Car and Driver
    http://bit.ly/12vpM3q
    28 Jul 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: I think there's still an opportunity there: "The key to recapturing as much energy as possible is a slow, steady braking motion, as opposed to quick, abrupt stops that can overwhelm the regenerative-braking system. Crombez says regenerative brakes can handle a 0.2g load before the friction brakes activate".

     

    And even with that they claim "... recapturing up to 95% of kinetic energy ...".

     

    With some PbC in there instead of or with Li-ion, they could probably handle faster stops (>= 1G?) and capture even more. I'll give 'em 95% is not bad, if accurate.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    Wait'll they get a hybrid to the dragstrip!
    28 Jul 2013, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    TB, she is 55ish and figures 20 years of driving. She is no longer married to the plug although a hybrid with a plug might be a plus for her. Also, she has not ruled out a standard ICE with good fuel economy. She was also intrigued that the TDI clean diesel engine was fully recyclable. I had a head scratch on this as I thought all engines were fully recyclable...
    28 Jul 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Tim, All engines are fully recyclable. The non recyclable stuff generally lies in places like the seating and some of the plastics that are too labor intensive to recycle. These end up getting pulverized in the recycling process and land filled. Classified as "fluff". The automakers are starting to migrate to some better, read less offensive, materials for some of these purposes. One example is hemp which has a wonderfully strong fiber but we also recognize it for it's THC content in the leaves. They have developed some new strains that have the same fiber characteristics in the stems w/o the THC in the leaves. It's turning into a wonderful cash crop and displacing oil based man made fibers in industry.

     

    Anyway, the auto industry, like the LAB industry, is very good and efficient at reusing materials via a well established recycling chain. Also, the auto industry has removed all the lead content and hex chrome that used to have many purposes in the making of autos. Only place they still use lead is in the battery. So no lead unless it's in recycled material. Can't be added to virgin anything anymore.
    28 Jul 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Last time I checked the leaves were way more valuable than the fibrous stems. Just saying ...
    28 Jul 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    John, For sure. But I've heard that when you are in the audience of certain government officials in specific states you consider having the right stems, as classified via genetics, to be a much bigger advantage! It's amazing how just one person in your company can change the value of something so much!
    28 Jul 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Thanks iidelco, and in my era it was the buds that were the important/high valued part (JP you showed your age on that one).

     

    Edit: Thanks everyone. I think I have what I need to share with my friend...
    28 Jul 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how to break this to you Tim, but I think most of us are from the same era. I love to tell folks that the first time I mentioned The Beatles to my wife she said "Weren't they Paul McCartney's old group?" but that's simply a polite way of bragging.
    28 Jul 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    I don't feel as old as I look (except when I get up in the mornings)...
    28 Jul 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/12vP55z
    28 Jul 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    0-60 in 27 seconds pulling 50k+ is not shabby.
    28 Jul 2013, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    27 seconds was a tractor only time, but the new Axion presentation includes a graph comparing ePower with conventional diesel and the Eaton hybrid with a load.
    28 Jul 2013, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    John, your description here brings up a question. The EV fans always like to tout how their maintenance is vastly reduced vs ICE vehicles. It's been debated of course whether that's really valid. But maybe to some extent it will prove to be true. So I wonder, would a new ePower glider-build likely have the same 3-4yr overhaul/rebuild cycle as an equivalent ICE truck, or is there possibly the chance that that could be extended to say five years? I would think that the lifespan the PbC bank achieves while maintaining a certain level of performance is probably going to be a very strong determining factor there. But if so, if a full five years becomes realistic, that would seem like another strong selling point. If a new ePower build could reasonably promise a 15yr service life with only *two* rebuilds at 5 and 10 years, vice three (with also, ahem, the chance of upgraded components/performance coming therewith) that could be pretty compelling indeed. I guess time will tell there, but if such could be achieved, would mean even more savings and ROI for the operator...

     

    DTG 1203 PDT 28JUL2013
    29 Jul 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    not even the leaves, just the flower buds
    29 Jul 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    I don't grok the recycleable issue, though I think what she is looking at are reports that the newest VW products have been designed to make it possible to recycle the whole car... Subaru has similar ideas.

     

    Ever since Mercedes figured out how to ace the American diesel emissions hurdle (one reason they stopped exporting diesel cars here for a long time), its been possible for the really high mileage diesel cars to be considered, although unfortunately we usually don't see them sold here. With the new CAFE numbers, however, it is thought that this will change.

     

    I have read claims of 75-80mpg from VW diesels, and my personal experience was good (and I have a lead foot, so my experience may be judged a "torture test" for fuel economy).

     

    I would think one of these cars would be able to give 20 years of good service.

     

    I have not seen a hybrid with a 20 year expectation without major expense involving battery pack replacement, however.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    TB, FYI.

     

    "End of Life Vehicles

     

    Every year, end of life vehicles generate between 8 and 9 million tonnes of waste in the Community which should be managed correctly. In 1997, the European Commission adopted a Proposal for a Directive which aims at making vehicle dismantling and recycling more environmentally friendly, sets clear quantified targets for reuse, recycling and recovery of vehicles and their components and pushes producers to manufacture new vehicles also with a view to their recyclability.

     

    This legislation was officially adopted by the EP and Council in September 2000 and was published in Official Journal L269 on 21st October "

     

    http://bit.ly/17ORPsZ
    29 Jul 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    481086> The potential useful life of an ePower retrofit remains to be proven, but may offer significant savings in its own right. A typical diesel engine and transmission are good for 16,0000 hours in a Class 8 tractor.

     

    The ePower components individually have expected useful lives of:

     

    Transmission – 16,000 hours
    Diesel engine – 20,000 hours
    Electric generator – 40,000 hours
    Electric Drive motor – 40,000 hours
    Electrical Components – 60,000 hours
    AC Vector Drive – 90,000 hours
    PbC Battery Pack – 16,000 hours (+/-)

     

    So while an ePower rebuild will need some serious overhaul work after 500,000 to 600,000 miles for the mechanical components and maybe the batteries, ePower *believes* the second overhaul won't require a complete re-do because many components will have plenty of useful life left.

     

    The whole purpose of the initial 10 truck fleet will be to confirm fuel economy claims and establish the durability for the integrated system. There is reason to hope that the PbC batteries will last longer than the diesel engine and transmission, but until it's proven on the road it's hopium laced conjecture.

     

    PS: I always wanted to use the word hopium with respect to the PbC and never got the chance, but the reality
    29 Jul 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2057) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I bought a Prius a little over a year. We did over 31,000 miles in 12 months. Free service, no problems, great car. We've been about 50 mpg. The last few tanks (summer) has been 52 mpg. I drive c. 80 mph, my wife is a bit slower, better mileage. Well over 400 miles per tank, which is important for me for some long distance driving through high-cost gas states.

     

    Complaints: nothing realistic. A lot less space than my Suburban. We have a slow leak in one tire (even after a repair), probably will have to replace it early. The USB charger for my mobile does not work well, but I think that is a problem with the phone, not the car. The navigation software is a little clunky; I like the Android navigator more.

     

    If the size is right, I recommend the Prius.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • astallings
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    VW Passat TDI. Big safe car and mileage is not far from the Prius.
    29 Jul 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    Good to know TB, the claim to recycle the whole car makes more sense.

     

    Rick, thanks for the recap! I think you need to add road warrior to your bio <smile>

     

    astallings, welcome and thanks for weighing in...
    29 Jul 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Tim Enright ... My company does a lot of work in the EU. Some auto some healthcare and some aerospace. It all has to have a paper trail for every piece of content that tracks materials from mine to end-user. It includes a total recycle list of recoverable content. It is the bane of my life because it is ssssoooo boring to do but I'm the only one with enough patience to do it. When they talk about a car being totally recyclable this is what they are talking about.

     

    I present to you IMDS (International Materials Data System)

     

    http://bit.ly/13VrhpY

     

    http://bit.ly/13Vt12l
    30 Jul 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1333) | Send Message
     
    >DRich ... Another rather large body of work that I was totally unaware of. It's nice to know we are building things with the end of life in mind. It's also nice to have patient folks minding the data store...
    30 Jul 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Trying to avoid getting more counterfeit stuff from China in the military hardware? Lots "O" luck.
    30 Jul 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco .... ?
    30 Jul 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    A significant reason for all of these material certs is to try to get control of the supply chain because everyone is having great difficulty assuring that systems such as those used in the military are not permeated with inferior or vulnerable parts coming from known/unknown sources.

     

    http://bit.ly/156RYdv

     

    http://bit.ly/156RVOR
    30 Jul 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    QuickChat's Instablog is on #259.
    http://bit.ly/18J6nyZ

     

    APC is on #255. In two or three weeks we will bypass QuickChat's number of web pages.
    27 Jul 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    There's a reason that Axion Power Host is the top Instablog on SA and the editors let me write focus articles from time to time on a penny stock despite the general policy prohibiting that class of article.
    27 Jul 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Despite all the consternation about pps, PIPE and lack of any palpable sales news, it appears your "..lurkers...on the fence..." has growing credibility.
    I suspect your ratios are a SWAG, but interesting when more appear even at this pps!
    27 Jul 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Magounsq: I hope that's it. My TFH keeps telling me it's "them" picking our brains to do us dirty! :-(( I keep resisting the suggestion though.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    One of the most fascinating tidbits in Tom Konrad's article was TG's statement that Axion has about 5,000 stockholders. When I stepped aside as legal counsel in early 2008, the stockholder count was a large three digit number. If you're willing to assume that most of the thousands who bought Axion stock over the last five years did so because of my work instead of effective PR, the conclusions about the nature of the stockholder base are pretty clear. We have met the allies. They are legion and they are us.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Exactly, JP. My wife and I fit right into that category. Been here for 2 plus years, never sold a share, plan to stick with it, and are among the smaller, but fiercely loyal shareholders.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    rastos
    Me too. At this APC, there were several vocal sellers. I don't think they represent all the silent loyal shareholders. It will be interesting if all the silent fiercely loyal shareholders report to duty on this APC.
    23808
    27 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • jmcheln
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Me three ... Long time APC lurker... Holding for approx 4 years... Never sold a share, axpw represents my second biggest holding after kndi. Love the APC and this community... Many thanks (and bowing deeply) to JP, and all the Axionistas for all u do !!
    27 Jul 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks to the lurkers for saying HI before returning to lurking. Sometimes it seems that the active participants in these Concentrators don't understand that they're just the vocal tip of the iceberg and the 267 APH followers are only about 5% of the total retail base.
    27 Jul 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    All,

     

    I think JP has just called all of us the blabbermouths.

     

    The nerve. :>)
    29 Jul 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    Until NS, BMW or the like come out of the closet with a long term PO in hand to part the cloudy skies and allow the sun to come shining through there will be many of us just hanging out waiting to see how this this story turns out!

     

    Curiosity has killed many a cat.
    27 Jul 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: As long as it doesn't skin us first ... :-((

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    Ouch, I hate it when that happens! ;-))
    27 Jul 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    07/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 638003, AvTrSz: 5748
    Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1555
    # Buys, Shares: 45 291042, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1577
    # Sells, Shares: 66 346961, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1537
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.19 (45.6% “buys”), DlyShts 63020 (9.88%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.16%

     

    I'm becoming concerned about the FINRA daily short sales percentages. They've been in a trend lower since the first week in June. As you might recall, when they moved to excessively low percentages for an extended period, roughly beginning of January through mid-April, we had that long move down after the end of the “grind up” that started in early November of last year. Without “normal” daily short sales percentages, I suspect a “broken market” and continued price weakening.

     

    If you check my charts, you'll see that when daily short sales began to trend up towards “normal”, we had an increase in price stability and even some appreciation. This price action started, with a nadir and then rapid recovery, about a week after the daily short percentages began the trend up towards “normal”.

     

    Kudos to the folks trading through ARCA today. Although I couldn't catch their early action, I noticed in the late morning or early afternoon that they were not contesting ATDF and NITE for top spot on the sell side. They parked an ask at $0.159 and sat on it, ignoring the jostling of those around them, the trades by-passing their offer and hitting the bids, ... And they were rewarded beginning around 14:58 as buyers came and took their shares (or at least enough where they could call it a day) and they were off the queue by 15:26. Then the late-day high of $0.16 was hit, but for only a few trades and shares, and the price began to plummet (well, if 8/10ths of a cent on a day with a 1 penny spread can be called such), getting as low as $0.1520 as “The Usual Suspects” started slinging shares at the bidders, who responded appropriately.

     

    So I now proclaim that ARCA is smarter than ATDF, NITE et al! The VWAP after ARCA was done was only $0.1559! ARCA outdid the day's VWAP by 2.251% and that subsequent trading by 1.987%! That was helped by sellers both dropping ask prices (not aggressively though) and trades stepping around to hit the bids (a bit more aggressively here), as demonstrated by the buy and sell percentages of 35.99% and 64.01% respectively for that following period.

     

    Well done say I! And I wish them similar success moving forward, although expecting to do that well every day seems a bit ambitious.

     

    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
    07/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
    07/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
    07/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
    07/25: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1527, x 85%: $0.1298
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295

     

    Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902
    Vol, in K, for above days: 4255, 738.6, 2046, 477.8, 1141, 638.

     

    On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    1-day change: 1465.8%, 67.1%, 10.8%, 2.2%, 0.7%, -2.6%
    5-day change: 2.1%, 55.6%, 149.8%, 542.8%, 225.9%, -6.3%
    5-day rate of change change: -176.7%, 13.5%, 111.4%, 145.9%, 350.8%, -26.2%

     

    On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    1-day change: -180.5%, -33.3%, -12.1%, -25.9%, -19.8% -41.5%
    5-day change: -143.4%, -56.8%, -53.1%, -52.6%, -73.8%, -75.9%
    5-day rate of change change: -180.1%, -221.0%, -43.9%, -43.2%, -57.4% -58.4%

     

    As I mentioned yesterday, with the original calculations sensitive only to buy:sell and volume they continue to respond to the recent sustained more normal buy percentages, today 51.8% over the last five days now vs. the 34.8% 6/28-7/19.

     

    The newer version incorporates other factors and is, I believe, presenting a truer short-term picture. Yesterday I said “The 5 and 10-day calculations are still above zero but will need some help in the coming days to stay up there”. Since we again got no help today, the 5 and 10-day readings have dropped again from Wednesday's 27.84 and 5.11 respectively to -25.56 and -108.96 today. It's looking much more likely the trend suggesting reduced weakening or actual strengthening is off the table. It's looking increasingly like the trend lines on the newer chart for the 50, 100 and 200-day calculations will be at least re-visited.

     

    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    HTL, this coincides well with the next batch of shares to be released Aug.1 +/-
    27 Jul 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Earlier today one of my e-mail buddies asked, "The bigger question is why a better deal wasn’t available to AXPW when they went to the market."

     

    While I've beaten around the bush and given partial answers to this question in the past, I answered my friend as follows:

     

    "My bet is that Axion was intensely focused on bringing in money from a strategic parter and had a handshake deal in place, but the strategic partner tried to pull an 11th hour squeeze that was onerous enough for management to walk away and go with their Plan B safety valve.

     

    Strategic partners are, by definition, a couple orders of magnitude larger than Axion. When a very big fish has a clear advantage over a very small fish needs big fish to ensure its survival, the little fish frequently ends up as an appetizer.

     

    In 2009 a big fish we all know and love won a DOE grant "with Axion Power" and decided that it would rather be a predator than a partner. But for a Hail Mary stock offering in December 2009 the big fish would have eaten very well.

     

    I think the PIPE is just a different verse of the same song."

     

    In the last CC Tom basically said as much:

     

    "Yeah, we’ve been looking to different options in different opportunities for strategic investors, but price hasn’t been what we’re willing to pay if you will.

     

    ***

     

    Would we prefer to have a strategic investor standing along side of us that is going to take a percentage of the company and work with us and work to get us into various opportunities, we certainly would. But we’re not prepared to give up 60% of the company in order to do that or to take an investment at a much lower discount to market. What we were able to take is I’m sure you all know on the call we were able to obtain investments at a plus rate, and in this market with the opportunities that are out there and with the folks that have gone out of business in the battery industry we’re certainly thankful that we were able to hold out and get the kind of deal that we got."
    27 Jul 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1317) | Send Message
     
    With some regularity, people get their greatest fear. This often occurs because they try so hard to not let the fear happen, that they mismanage the circumstance and cause the fear to occur.

     

    I believe TG's greatest fear is that he will be outfoxed in a Negotiation.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Were I in TG's place, that would be my greatest fear as well. How could it not be? 10 years of blood, sweat and tears. A priceless product mastered. A misstep now and we all could lose who knows how much. What a burden for him. I'm glad he has experience.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Good negotiation is not a blood sport. It is seeking a compromise where all participants win. I don't believe Granville has ever feared the outcome of a fair negotiation, but we all fear being caught in a situation where the other party engineers an eleventh hour squeeze and there is no available Plan B.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, I think you may be correct and I think that he put stakes in the ground that he couldn't imagine would have ever happened to "him" based on his prior position. He was never outfoxed but he might have missed the point where he had a higher level of leverage.

     

    Not for me to debate but I know automotive. He went from being a huge fish to a talented small fish team member.

     

    I hope like heck he's been enlightened because he's holding a great technology someone else is close to getting darn close to for free.
    30 Jul 2013, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Christopher Rahn (PSU)

     

    Active Research Projects:

     

    Development and Experimental Validation of an Electromechanical Control Model of Li-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Electric Vehicles

     

    Testing, Simulation and Control of Lead-Acid Batteries for Energy Storage and Regenerative Braking of Hybrid Locomotives

     

    http://bit.ly/13cQZXa
    27 Jul 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the link. Interesting research listed at Penn State.
    27 Jul 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... This is his book, published this year.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aPkM9Y

     

    I'm sure it's a real page turn'r and might be as close to a white paper as we'll see.

     

    I know everyone speculates about why NS999 sits. Prof. Rahn might, after reviewing some of what he has said, already told us what is going on with it.

     

    "Rahn believes No. 999 could lead to a hybrid locomotive in the future. Like hybrid cars, it could use its batteries to accelerate or pull a load up a hill, then recharge as it brakes going down the other side."
    [January 25, 2012] http://bit.ly/1aPkJLg

     

    This is the reason I don't totally dismiss the "science fair project" aspect of doubting people. It might be more of a testbed for the OTR than it is a switcher. I just don't know.

     

    As to what is keeping it from field trials, we've suspected racking (ventilation) problems. Prof Rahn gave these as possible problems that still need working out. How much relates to the PbC ... again, I don't know.

     

    ""Some of the other cells we identified may have had a water loss issue," said Rahn. "And for these types of batteries, there's nothing you can do about it."

     

    Other mechanisms that can damage lead-acid batteries include positive electrode corrosion, irreversible hard sulfation, positive electrode softening or shedding, electrolyte stratification, internal short-circuiting and mechanical damage."
    [Jan. 4, 2013] http://bit.ly/1aPkJLi

     

    My personal favorite for what the NS999 is doing sitting in the shop for more than a month + is this, lifted from a description of goals in the project "iindelco" mentions above.

     

    "Designed and built a multipurpose battery testing station with feedback capability using Matlab/Simulink, dSPACE, ampli er and sensors, which can perform conventional multiple electrochemical tests in one setup as well as implement control algorithms."

     

    The actual installation of an Operations Monitor & Repair Station. Can't run or sell a loco you can't diagnose or repair. It gives me a reason to understand why nothing seemingly is happening and does nothing for my anxiety & impatience to see it in the broad daylight.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    One of the points that Tom Konrad brought up to feed the bulls, specifically the amount of space Norfolk Southern devoted to the NS-999 in their report, really struck a nice note for me. A number of posters continue to refer to the NS-999 as being in storage, just sitting there or other comments suggesting it has been put on waivers when the fact is the report gives it top billing in the relevant section. I'm not so optimistic as Stillldazed ("no news is good news"); for me, this report was good cause for optimism straight from the loco's mouth.
    28 Jul 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, That report was like a breath of fresh air to a drowning man. Its mention of Axion as a partner and the placement of the NS999 means that the delay is due to internal development timing/prioritization. Not what our wandering minds might conjure up regarding what might be hiding in the shadows.
    28 Jul 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Tom Cleary (PSU/BEST)

     

    http://bit.ly/161CGmQ

     

    Thermal Management, SOC and SOH Estimation of a Large format Lithium-Titanate Battery System Designed for Heavy Vehicle Applications with Fast Charging.
    Sponsor: U.S. Dept. of Transportation

     

    Thermal Design Validation, Control Optimization and Energy Storage Evaluation of an Experimental Electric Locomotive
    Sponsor: U.S. Dept. of Transportation/Norfolk Southern
    30 Jul 2013, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    I want to take a few moments to extend a special thank you to John P. for his invaluable [and timely] contribution with his article published this past week on the PIPE financing. It seemed clear he had given the subject material a lot of thought and consideration, not only from a factual perspective, but also on how to take complex financial and contract jargon, and present it in a clear and concise manner, so as to make it as understandable as possible.

     

    I watched a movie once where Denzel Washington played a lawyer, and sprinkled throughout the movie, he made the comment, “Explain it to me as if I’m a six year old”. It was never in the context of “dumbing down” a message, but to have it presented it in a way that’s readily understandable to another person. I’ve since always appreciated what a skill it is to do just that.

     

    I also watched an interview recently that Charlie Rose did with David McCullough, a prolific and highly successful history author/writer. In that interview, he said something like, “Clear writing is about thinking clearly, and that’s why it’s so hard; and that’s why I love it!” — His comments drove home the point for me that the act of writing literally forces us to think clearly. And if that clarity can come across to readers, it allows the reader to think more clearly as well.

     

    These points are especially relevant for me (us?) at this time because of the two articles that were released by Tom Konrad this week. In my own estimation, TK did not pause long enough before putting out some rather provocative comments, which in turn caused a certain amount of consternation for Axion shareholders. A couple of his comments even left me with the impulse to head for the exits before the PIPE investors could do me more harm. [And I consider myself to be one of the more stalwart and loyal of Axion shareholders]. In short, some of TK’s comments left me a bit confused, a bit angry, and a bit more despondent about what a difficult situation this PIPE financing has brought us to.

     

    It wasn’t until after I read JP’s article that I realized my reactions to TK’s articles had mostly to do with a lack of clarity on his part on some key points. It just seemed his provocative comments were made without making the case in a methodical and thorough manner. JP’s article on the other hand, struck me as thorough, reasoned, and rational, and expressed in a way my brain could easily assimilate. This being the case even though I am in the same boat as DRich, when he opined, “I'm more than a little financially ignorant and micro-cap challenged.” — Nice line Drich! In short, whereas TK’s article left me feeling a bit edgy, JP’s article helped me to relax, A LOT!

     

    A key point that I took away from both TK and JP’s articles is they seem to agree that the PIPE investors would not have lent money to Axion in the first place had they not had confidence it was a strong company and worth investing in. It would not make financial sense to invest in a failing business, or to try to do anything to cause it to fail. They only want to make as much money as possible. TK seems to think that in order to do this, they may want to pressure the pps for another 3-4 months or so to maximize their profits. JP believes we may have already seen the worst, and made a persuasive case they could maximize their profits by easing off on the pressure in the near term. For me as an Axion shareholder, EITHER of these two scenarios makes it appear that a floor is in sight.

     

    Another thing that came out of my musings this past week (and there were a lot of them!) is that this PIPE financing has only magnified what seems to be the current dynamic of Axion being a coiled stock. Never has its pps been so battered, and never has its intrinsic value been so high. Yes, the pps could slide even further in the coming weeks or months, but when good news announcements start coming in [and I’m confident they will], then that spring will uncoil. And the pps has the potential to double, and perhaps double again, in literally the blink of an eye. There’s just no way I’m going to try to time that one, and am sitting tight. I believe the odds are overwhelmingly on our sides.

     

    Thanks again JP. I think you did a great job on your article, and provided a much needed boost for some of us beleaguered Axionistas.
    27 Jul 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    WiO: Hear, hear!

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks for the kind words Wayne but I have to admit that writing a blog for the last five years taught me more about communicating with readers than the prior 25 years of writing disclosure documents.

     

    The simple process of writing an essay and then interacting with smart readers who don't always get all points you hoped to make is incredibly educational.

     

    I was always a good writer, but you guys have made me a good communicator and they're two very different things.

     

    As you all know, SA policy generally prohibits focus articles on sub-$1 stocks. I was blown away a few minutes ago when I went to my articles page and saw that yesterday's piece on understanding the Axion PIPE was chosen as an Editors Pick.

     

    http://bit.ly/pYHjyh
    27 Jul 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: "editors pick"

     

    Well deserved on several levels, not the least of which is the clarity of presentation. Add that it addresses a topic seldom presented for typical retail folks and it's a natural for a site that tries to educate.

     

    Congratulations on that - I know there's many more that will be so designated.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1431) | Send Message
     
    With all due respect, John, I've always assumed that you guys who write disclosure documents had to first take a course in impenetrable writing such that the average reader wouldn't have a clue as to what was going on. ;)

     

    Seriously, I want to add my thanks to those of WIO and others for dissecting the PIPE documents in a way that makes sense.
    27 Jul 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    We all do post doctoral studies in deathless prose and dire warnings.

     

    The funny thing is the documents you read today follow the SEC's Plain English regulations.

     

    They used to be really complex.
    27 Jul 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2272) | Send Message
     
    WIO,

     

    Yes the PIPEs would hope for a home run but they are guaranteed their 15% singles. Enough of those is equal to what most here would consider a score.

     

    I think that a 15% return a few times a year is market beating and there is almost no downside for the PIPEs so I wouldn't read into too much that they are indeed "long termers" in the traditional sense.

     

    TK laid out the bear case for the PIPE and it is plausible but hopefully not probable. But for those who have rode this done from above 50 cents to current levels, 18 cents or 12 or 8 cents all seems pretty similar anyhow.

     

    Heck, lower might even be better if one is trying to dollar cost average his/her original stake to a point that it could someday be above water. A few I know think you'd have to get your average cost down below 40 cents to have a fair chance of shelving the scuba gear for 2014 and beyond.
    27 Jul 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    shucks, I already voted for that comment.
    28 Jul 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Yes, lurkers. Please come by and say hi. I was a lurker for two years until I just couldn't take it anymore and had to say something. And nobody has made fun of me yet! But it wasn't easy because SA scrutinizes your first post at least 12 hours or so before it lets it through, so it's hard to join a conversation. A few posts later, it's instantaneous.
    27 Jul 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Yoyomama: "And nobody has made fun of me yet!"

     

    You'll know you've been accepted when we pick on you like we do each other! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Mother taught me that it's not nice to pick on girls and we have so few of them here in testosterone central that I'm doubly careful with Yoyomama. I just hope her students give her enough free time to sneak back occasionally to just say hi.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Thanks you guys (I think)
    27 Jul 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Yoyomama, Yes. The inauguration period is very frustrating as you post something and when it finally makes it through the review process it seems dated. Best to say hello and get through that phase of the joining process in case you have something you wish to post on in a timely fashion at some time in the future.

     

    As you suggest it's painless. :)
    27 Jul 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Hi WIO,

     

    "There’s just no way I’m going to try to time that one, and am sitting tight."

     

    I have been lurking and commenting here for over 2 years now. I found these concentrators and AXPW quite by accident when doing research for battery solutions for storing solar generated power and power solutions (APUs) for class 8 trucks with the various State mandated anti-idle laws.

     

    The main thing I have learned is that my timing sux, managements timing sux. I still stand by the due diligence that I performed. The technology is great and I still think the management is good. As investors we cry and lament about no news or guidance and when we do get it, we expect that the crystal ball that management uses will be clearer than our own. So I'm not going to hold someone else to a standard that I can't meet myself.

     

    Here I am and here I stay. Just a long winded way of saying I agree with you. ;-)
    27 Jul 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    In the Forbes article TK said:

     

    If there is a future financing at better terms over that period, the exercise price on the warrants is reset to the price of the future financing.

     

    Is this true?

     

    Thanks.
    27 Jul 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    If there's a future financing and the offering price is LESS THAN the original $0.302 warrant exercise price they will reset to the lower number, but if Axion has to raise more money at a sub-$0.30 level I figure I won't care because I'll have slit my wrists by then.
    27 Jul 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2272) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Do you expect another round in 2014? Or do think cash flow will change for the better before such a raise is needed.
    27 Jul 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The thing that's surprised me most about the battery industry is the immense amount of time, effort and money required to bridge the gulf between the Eureka! moment and commercial success. If I'd known I was signing up for a decade of work without a big payday I probably would have gone in another direction.

     

    That being said, I don't expect Axion to be a struggling battery development company by this time next year. My work with ePower has forever changed my view of the PbC because I no longer hope it will prove to be a wonder-battery for harsh duty cycles. Instead I know for a fact that it is a wonder-battery for at least one harsh duty cycle.

     

    While I'm not devoting significant time to the Axion-ePower business relationship, it's fair to say that I'm working very hard to make ePower a smashing success and Axion will be a huge direct beneficiary if I do my job well.
    27 Jul 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1548) | Send Message
     
    Go, John, Go!!!!
    27 Jul 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Some people go to great lengths to make sure some more of their prior motivations bear fruit. ;)
    27 Jul 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I always said I won't be happy until all the goals I established for Axion in December 2003 are achieved. Most have been achieved in spades, but the national market listing (Amex or Nasdaq) has been far more elusive than I expected..
    27 Jul 2013, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    In another year we might be discussing the investor's dilemma: buy more high-priced Axion, or add to that new IPO, ePower.
    27 Jul 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >JohnM121 ... I have no doubt what I'd do.
    27 Jul 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    My first thought was "Oh what great fun!"
    My second thought was "Oh no!. JP will be an insider and unable to talk to us anymore!"
    27 Jul 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    That is the most serious statement that I have ever read from you!

     

    I hope that scenario never comes close to being played out.,
    27 Jul 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I was being a bit melodramatic with the wrist thing, but I'm dead serious about ePower.
    27 Jul 2013, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    SD: "when we do get it, we expect that the crystal ball that management uses will be clearer than our own. So I'm not going to hold someone else to a standard that I can't meet myself".

     

    Well, in our real world, when we tell the boss "we can by xxxx" and we miss enough times, there's ... "repercussions", sometimes. If it's an occasional slip, no biggie. If it turns into a pattern, there's often some meetings involved.

     

    Yes, no one's crystal ball is perfect, but the one from an insider should be better than ours - us "outsiders". And one of the purposes of management communications is to allow us to make effective decisions relative to our individual situations.

     

    So there's two major tasks, at least, relative to shareholders that any management could (should?) concern themselves with: effective communication and effective execution to satisfy what has been communicated. If the thing being communicated is "iffy", maybe better left unsaid or qualified in some fashion. None of us like the former, so at least the latter could be done.

     

    Again, an occasional miss is no biggie, but a pattern ...

     

    I may sound presumptuous in my feelings, but it comes from a professional career in which I almost never missed a schedule. Partly because even when management set unreasonable schedules with no input from the guys (us) that know how long it would/should take, we would jump in and make the extra effort. Other times it was because we discussed the unreasonableness and found some accommodation.

     

    Of course, our only "outside" dependencies were other higher levels of management, unlike what TG & Co. face, so we need to give more slack to the Axion folks than I would've expected for myself (us) inside the company. But even allowing that slack, I don't feel that expecting communication of *realistically* obtainable goals, with qualifiers where needed, and execution to those goals, in near the expected times stated, the *majority* of the time is more than I would expect of myself or my employees, when I had such.

     

    MHO, of course,
    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    You've highlighted the CEO's dilemma HTL.

     

    If you say nothing because timing and outcomes are uncertain or potential customers don't want you trading on their name and reputation until the relationship matures, your stockholders call for the guillotine because you're not communicating effectively.

     

    If you make a good faith estimate and things don't go according to plan your credibility is shot and stockholders call for the guillotine because you're a liar.

     

    I've walked many miles in those shoes and can tell you first hand that it's always a losing game for the CEO who talks about anything other than historical fact.

     

    I am beyond grateful that nobody holds me to the standards they demand from Axion's management because while I've been more willing to guess at outcomes and timing, I've been wrong far more often than I've been right.
    27 Jul 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: Yep. Just like the rest of us who work for a living. But we have to take the risk *very* frequently, especially if you're in the "professional" ranks.

     

    I used to stick my neck out a lot, *after* due consideration. I don't think it's too much to expect the same "risky" (in terms of credibility) behavior for folks carrying much more responsibility and a much fatter wallet than I ever had.

     

    I wasn't a CEO (lots of good reasons for that) and never wanted to be one (from what I could tell, "politics" often dominate and I had zero interest).

     

    But as I *expect* those who rely on me should be able to develop trust over time, I want to do the same for those upon whom I rely. Calculated risk is a definite part of that I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I understand what you are saying, and like you, I would prefer to be under promised and over delivered. Many times there are long periods where there is nothing to say, things are progressing in tiny increments and baby steps (and babies do fall over a lot).

     

    Yep, the investor communications conundrum is a tough one to solve when movement is slow and precarious, but just as when I don't hear from my grown and gone kids that much, I have to figure that no news is good news (I always get bad news fast).
    27 Jul 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    As a chemist and not a physicist, it seems to me that stop-n-go in the yard or up-n-down on the hills is equivalent. It's all about inertia and friction with time thrown in.

     

    If I wanted a battery-powered loco to move loads around a railyard (or up a hill), it seems to me it would be a trivial effort to determine the maximum load that needed moving and the amount of energy in kWh I needed to get it halfway there and then the amount of energy I could recover to bring it to a stop in the second half of the trip. The time constraints would be a deciding factor for the power requirements and the DCA - so there may be a top-speed glide in the middle. I'm sure something like that was done to obtain the number of batteries and the ratings of motors for the NS-999. Does anyone have access to this kind of analysis?
    28 Jul 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: I don't recall anyone posting such. I would expect that NSC's stuff would be closely guarded.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Jul 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    But we'd love to see a back of the napkin analysis from somebody who wouldn't be overwhelmed by the math. Maybe VW and DRich can give you some weight and speed parameters to fool around with.
    28 Jul 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    If I recall correctly, Carnegie Mellon made a table of those forces for Penn Central and later Conrail. That was diesel locos, but HP is HP. It seems to me it was done along with the "CRC handbook of Chemistry & Physics" and "The Making Shaping & Treating of Steel" for USS. I'm comfortable PSU has that specific NS information but I don't know if that's in the public domain.

     

    I guess I'm really uncomfortable with that particular proposal. I suspect it's straight up stuff, but if I'm wrong and I often am, it would be better if that information was determined elsewhere. Besides I didn't work in Mechanical. If somebody else were to find it tho . . . .

     

    My suspicion is that this is a problem that would be confronted by "overwhelming force". That is, they would design for maximum KW (HP) they thought they could economically control.

     

    AREA might have sumthing ?
    28 Jul 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    I think the harder part of this equation is capturing the total work required in the specific rail yard to be preformed. Load changes, reversals, total work performed during a cycle before recharge. Making sure the minimum SOC will handle a worse case load etc. The other stuff I'm sure already has been documented. It's the industrial guys getting the total work content covered with some safety factor during worse case climate conditions correct that counts. BTW, This is all not easy because the battery efficiency changes depending on SOC.

     

    You could also do just an OK study and run with it if you plan for and have room to add an additional string or two. I'd spend a little less time being so precise if I could follow up with some added storage. Leave a spare road loco nearby for use during the learning curve and let the unit teach you what it needs. Just need to be close! Don't want to fill the entire loco with PbC's and still be way off what's required.
    28 Jul 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    From where I sit, iindelco wins the prize !

     

    Power requirements are done on a location by location basis. Then the road generally selects two model switchers that will cover all the locations. Overwhelming power in two packages.

     

    This being new and all, I would kinda 'spect NS to come out with a switcher that will work in worst urban conditions then insert OTR units as a slave. Who knows how electric progress is made, but it doesn't seem off the charts that three to five generations will be judged prudent before a class I RR would go to massive replacement.

     

    This is the most exciting event in RR technology of my lifetime. To me, anyway. I'm rooting for a 1st generation introduction by first quarter. I'm nerdy about many things but TEMLO for me is off the charts.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I'll second that. "Iindelco" wins the prize. Although the calculating of tractive effort to a specific load is not too difficult, applying it the site specifics of grade change & curves and then sizing the H.P. requirements for speed & duty cycle is a monumental task that I can't really accomplish. Add in the changing available power from the batteries. Too many variables. Too much I can't/don't know.

     

    Tractive effort is a force. HP is power. They are not "convertible" but are related by speed. At a given power output a locomotive's tractive effort is inversely proportional to its speed (sort of) because that obviously can't continue to be true as speed decreases. Tractive effort determines how much a locomotive can haul. So after you have enough H.P. to start a train rolling by breaking the friction force, "adhesion" of the wheels on rail with a given tractive effort, increased horsepower allows an increased speed with other things remaining the same. A low H.P. yard switcher can pull a complete train. Just don't expect to set any speed records.

     

    http://bit.ly/16eW7KW
    29 Jul 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    The article is very good - Thanks for the link. I haven't attempted to napkin-back the math yet, not enough info. By the way, how many traction motors does the NS999 have?
    The excerpt provides valuable insight which addresses the "time constraint" that I originally mentioned. As a frequenter of ETA race strips back in my youth I've always kept an eye on the 0-60mph times, and the other incrementals, like 60-80 etc. So understanding that a rail yard would be content with a "reasonable" 1 or 2 minute time to speed is just not something I could have predicted or ballparked. Nor am I one of those railroad obsessive-enthusiasts with a yard nearby. I am, however, always happy to watch a train go by - smashed a few pennies in my time, too - very daring and nimble I was, as a kid.

     

    EXCERPT: "The final factor and one frequently overlooked is the tractive effort required for acceleration of the train. It takes about 10 pounds per ton to accelerate to a speed of 6 miles per hour in one minute or 12 miles per hour in two minutes, a reasonable rate for a heavy train."
    29 Jul 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    According to their 10-K NS has:

     

    3,842 multi-purpose locomotives
    122 Auxiliary units
    110 Switchers

     

    Since the other railroads typically have ~20% switchers, my bet is that NS uses some of its auxiliary and multi-purpose units for yard duty.
    29 Jul 2013, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... I'm not going back to check but I more than a little sure than NS999 has 4 traction motors and should have a tractive effort of about 55,000 pounds @ 10.7 mph with total locomotive weight on rail about 250,000 pounds.. All the wheels are drivers geared at (and this is a guess) 62:15
    29 Jul 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    To the best of my scant knowledge on the subject, all yards are flat or have slight grades.
    In a yard where trains coming from say the West.
    Cars may be going East North or South.
    The train coming in will be broken up and individual cars are pushed down a slight incline where switches will rout the car to the appropriate track where other cars with the same general destination are. (The incline is slight and the cars appear to be going at walking speed.) At the front of the line is a slight incline that will stop the car from going too far.

     

    In a flat yard: the switcher has to push each car all the way to the line of cars and go back for the next one. Likely this is only found in small mostly unused yards.
    I doubt there is an unplanned hill or valley in any switching yard.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2283) | Send Message
     
    Connecticut Public Act 12-148 – Section 7 – Microgrid Grant and Loan Pilot Program

     

    Final Determination (PDF):
    http://bit.ly/12vxv1t

     

    as announced here:
    http://bit.ly/12vxvyy

     

    Haven't dug in to see if ZBB was a "winner" though we might hear about it Monday morning via PR if they were.

     

    They partnered with Schneider Electric (who I think did most of the heavy "lifting") I believe on at least 2 projects:

     

    1: "Uconn Depot": http://bit.ly/WI1TME

     

    2: "CTtransit Hartford" : http://bit.ly/YJvJn1

     

    Finalist overview:
    http://1.usa.gov/YfPZNJ

     

    Finalist Details:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/12vz53o
    28 Jul 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    I decided to check on one of my favorite probable scams. In the previous APH insta. Zenn was brought up reminding me of EEstore.

     

    Que: Wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    Last year Zenn raised 2 million for EEstore by selling shares at $0.85 a share.
    Afterwards the stock climbed to $1.87 and has since dropped to $0.91

     

    They recently may have tested 1/4 of a Sq. centimeter and had good results. However the results were not included in the press release. They are reported in Wikipedia, however when I looked up the source it was MIA.
    http://bit.ly/yd8bLd
    The source was listed as reference 18.
    28 Jul 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    froggey: "favorite probable scams" :-) Yes indeed. As far as I can tell by dropping in on the web site occasionally, EEstore has never built a multilayer capacitor of any usable size for actual testing. But the theory and models look good!

     

    They just never allow anything like a testable part out of their "secret la-bor-a-tor-y". You would think SOMETHING would have escaped by now ;-)
    28 Jul 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2224) | Send Message
     
    Although I am keeping my Axion thoughts to myself I would like APC members to know I am still maintaining the APC search engine. It is up to date. Still lurking on the sidelines.
    29 Jul 2013, 04:31 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Glad to know you are still around Bang!
    29 Jul 2013, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Hi BW
    29 Jul 2013, 04:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Bang!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2013, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    Hey, Bang ! Keep hangin'. And love seein' .
    29 Jul 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (775) | Send Message
     
    Muchas gracias Bang!

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    29 Jul 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    Now a little something with a sour taste...

     

    When Axion gets a 2nd Source for BMW will that company be required to include Axion's name on the label or will they be able to hide it and take all the performance credit for their battery?

     

    Will this (or another) battery company be able to do an end run around the ePower deal with Axion? Since they will sell the same batteries but be different companies, will the sole source agreement hold?
    29 Jul 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Snowboard 2k01
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    I've got the contract to make the sticker " Axion PBC Inside"

     

    Well I can dream!

     

    Monday 7-29-2013 Noon

     

    RI Public radio show topic and I assume is nationwide,

     

    Here and Now is the name of the show.

     

    Electric cars are bad for the enviroment.
    29 Jul 2013, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    I expect/assume/hope that the there will be precise limitations placed on who they can sell to. I expect that for this European auto company, there will be an electrode line dedicated to them and located in Europe. Axion would be the backup supplier. Speculation on my part, but Axion has experience with legal and contract negotiation matters.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    gt, I'll admit I'm a little weird about stuff like this but . . . . . I don't care who gets credit for what. S'long as Axion gets the $$$$ for it I'll let somebody else hold the Oscar.

     

    I'll give brand x the sizzle. I want the steak.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood, I'm with you. For all I care they can call it the "JCI Power Pooper". Just as long as they poop some money our way. Oh, And I prefer they poop a s^%t ton.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (1986) | Send Message
     
    Is that a metric or English tonne you are requesting?

     

    http://bit.ly/12XNf8m
    29 Jul 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    How does being the hidden source effect the stock price? Less hype more steady slower growth?
    29 Jul 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, The smell of success on its way to the bank. Might be the case in France during times of negotiation if I recall correctly. So metric I guess. 8-l

     

    Far better than the smell of napalm in the morning. Smells like victory. And it promotes growth! ;)
    29 Jul 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (1986) | Send Message
     
    And it's organic and 100% recyclable!
    29 Jul 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue> the goal has always been an "Intel inside" approach where Axion doesn't care who manufactures the battery as long as it's heart and soul is the PbC electrodes inside. Co-branding is an important element of that strategy to help differentiate partners from wannabes.
    29 Jul 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    gt, revenue going through the roof will drive the stock price.

     

    Russell Crowe (sp?) made out like a bandit for the movie, "Gladiator". I don't know who the producer was, but she/he/they made more.

     

    You know Arlo Guthrie made "City of New Orleans" famous.

     

    And "You Never Even Call Me By My Name" was a hit for David Allen Coe.

     

    Steve Goodman made buckets staying in Chicago with his beloved Cubs because he wrote both.

     

    Mac Davis was a star performer on his own, but he made even more money writing:
    "In the Ghetto"
    "A Little Less Conversation"
    "Don't Cry Daddy"
    "I Believe in Music" and a list a mile long.
    performed by folks including Nancy Sinatra, Elvis Presley, BJ Thomas, Kenny Rogers, Helen Reddy, and the list goes on.

     

    If I could be a legit songwriter, I'd be content staying right here in my hay field. Those folks can take the bows and wrap their arms around the fringe benefits. Just so long as they make me rich on royalties.

     

    with deepest apologies to Mac Davis :

     

    You can have your TV & your night clubs
    And you can have your drive-in Picture show.
    I'll stay here with my little batt dear we'll listen to the radio.
    Bidin' my time and watchin' Axi grow.

     

    This is where Yoyomama inserts her "groan" post. Go ahead, Yoyo........... I know you're bustin at the seams.
    29 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    Since they will sell the same batteries but be different companies, will the sole source agreements hold for ePower?
    29 Jul 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The ultimate answer is probably "Who cares as long as the batteries have PbC inside?" I would expect Axion's relationships with other battery manufacturers to be limited in terms of both geography and application niches. That will give Axion the ability to protect the markets it wants to protect and farm out the markets that it doesn't want to pursue.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue, Axion is a high cost provider of AGM batteries. Their equipment is probably fine from a process standpoint for quality but lacking in certain upgrades in this area and most definitely in optimizing labor input in a high cost country. As such it's better to let others do the top level battery manufacturing since they have the capital, skills and relationships to do so much better.

     

    Plus, who wants the environmental liability of lead if you're making something that's more highly engineered? Get it out there and go back to doing R&D on optimization! Dat's where it's at. Making high value items for less. Not selling them for less, making them for less. Big difference.
    29 Jul 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    I would never disparage your creative attempts, Valleywood. Carry on.
    29 Jul 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    "Axion is a high cost provider of AGM batteries."

     

    A question that frequently comes to mind on reading a re-iteration of the "high cost provider of AGM batteries" factoid is, How much higher cost? 10% or 100%.

     

    Anyone care to toss out a guesstimate?
    29 Jul 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Since 60% to 70% of product costs in the battery business represent raw materials inputs and labor inputs are typically less than 10 man minutes per unit, the cost differential may not even be 10%. Axion can't buy lead quite as advantageously as larger producers and an older factory requires a bit more on the labor side. While the cost differential is not huge, it is hugely stubborn and will be difficult to overcome.
    29 Jul 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    John, As we know automotive OEM is a real trial for the soul. Even pennies matter. And it's even worse because they need to look at the operation to justify buying in. They will look at the plant and say that they either have it or they don't. The New Castle battery plant will fall into the don't category.

     

    Also, concerning your point on material costs. A very important point. Problem is Axion has no leverage with the supply base so they will be high on the material cost side. Not overly high for their other markets but for automotive. Well they know to the penny what Axion should be paying for everything and there's no way Axion has the supply network to be where they need to be for automotive. A scaled partner will bring them into the fold of world class with the strike of a few pen strokes as fast as the Enterprise's transporter room. Axion can't get there with their scale.

     

    Hope they mate well this time. With A good BMW push they should get a real beauty for a partner. Or perhaps a good license agreement.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    JP, iind ... Thanks. Looks like the higher Axion production cost for AGMs is likely not enough to preclude Axion manufacture of PbCs for many target markets other than auto.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, That's my perspective. But when trucking and rail scale it would still be better to move it into a world class operation. Reduced cost is a good thing. Waste is waste.

     

    But not imperative right away as far as I know.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv> The plan has always been to cherry pick markets for batteries made in New Castle saving the highest margin customers for Axion and farming out the lower margin customers to other manufacturers who are better able to deal with tight margins, heavy quality control issues and complex customer and consumer support networks.

     

    Automotive is definitely farm out country once you get past an initial production run that may not justify a partnership with another battery company.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Lurking here...and gaining insight everyday!
    29 Jul 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, Welcome!

     

    Thanks for raising your hand for the count. :)
    29 Jul 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the welcome. I've been lurking so long, feel like I know everyone already.
    29 Jul 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    AW SHUCKS !

     

    Saudis are concerned about their economic future 'cause of us. Perhaps they won't have so much money to give to terrorist organizations. I feel bad for them. Sniffle... sniffle.... honk.

     

    http://cnb.cx/13gJEWC
    29 Jul 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (1986) | Send Message
     
    "Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal warned that the Gulf Arab kingdom needed to reduce its reliance on crude oil and diversify its revenues, as rising U.S. shale energy supplies cut global demand for its oil."

     

    Diversify with what? Camel farming? Sell their harems?
    29 Jul 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    Solar farms with energy smoothing power cubes?
    29 Jul 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    SM,

     

    It's interesting that the Saudis have had blushing riches since 1947. Their build of universities, trade schools, hospitals, etc. has been little more than you and I could do alone.

     

    Although Thomas Friedman leaves me a little non-plussed, he in "The World is Flat" makes the claim that I will stipulate is reasonably accurate WTTE "There were more books printed by the Harvard University Press last year than there have been in the entire middle east (sans Israel) in the past ten years." I'm satisfied that's a mis-quote, but it captures his thought, methinks.

     

    Some other Me nations have been scrambling lately to educate their populace and teach them how to work. The Saudi family has done very little. I cannot even imagine what they will do.

     

    And I apologize for writing a political post. Forgive me. Back to money.
    29 Jul 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    It is always the goal of the people at the Top to stay there. Look at where US primary and secondary schools stack up against the worlds.
    Those insecure in their stranglehold on power are a bit more obvious.

     

    Holds true for companies. If you see your product being made obsolete by a new product, you have to either kill the new one or buy it.
    There are countless Urban Legends about super products that were too good to be allowed on the market. As for the PbC, it is not always wrong to be paranoid when you threaten huge "established" industries. They will stop their own internal conflicts long enough to crush you.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    Chemical industry has been courted by some countries in the Middle East. IMO, oil is far too valuable to burn. We should be burning more coal and less oil and gas.

     

    http://bit.ly/15ro55i

     

    Here's an interesting one - that is, if you're into rare earths like myself:
    http://buswk.co/15ro55k
    29 Jul 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    gt, now THATS funny !
    29 Jul 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    your solar farms post, gt.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: Another off-shoot of the Quick Chat's might interest you. A whole series of concentrators.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1222) | Send Message
     
    Thanks H.T.L.! Just what I needed ;)

     

    I spend about half my time digging into small mining plays. Haven't struck gold yet, but today is a very good day for me!
    29 Jul 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (1986) | Send Message
     
    I think I figured out how the Saudis intend to diversify.

     

    1) Prisons:

     

    http://bit.ly/143C4OX

     

    2) USG contracts:

     

    http://bloom.bg/14jMaxX
    1 Aug 2013, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    Trade at 17.7 happened while bid/ask at 16/16.9. How does that happen?
    29 Jul 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: negotiated MM->MM, inter-broker or intra-broker (both bypass MM). Remember that OTC MMs, brokers, ... actually sometime pick up the phone to chase down trades to satisfy their clients.

     

    Another oddity was the 60K @ $0/195 @ 9:30:00.
    09:29:27 b/a $0.1899/$0.19
    09:29:32 b/a $0.1899/$0.195
    09:29:45 b/a $0.1949/$0.195

     

    I'm thinking this one was preset as well. Because ...
    09:30:00 b/a $0.158/$0.195
    09:30:04 b/a $0.16/$0.19
    09:30:05 b/a $0.16/$0.17

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, It's been happening often since the Pied Pipers joined in. I've seen it on both sides where they are trading around best prices.
    29 Jul 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    What I don't understand is why they bother doing that for small volumes?
    29 Jul 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    RanMa: Broker's fees? And MMs get fees from the exchange. Brokers' fees are volume insensitive I guess unless you require assistance of one of their professionals. MMs fees are fractions of a penny(?) per ...? Per share or per $? I don't know.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Jul 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    I can tell you with absolute certainty that batteries will improve. I just can't tell you how much, how it will be accomplished or over what time frame. Details details.

     

    Strive for five! Five! Five?

     

    Powering the Future: The next big thing in batteries

     

    http://cbsn.ws/14tQcwL
    29 Jul 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's at least a decade from the Eureka! moment to the first commercial product and another decade from the first commercial product to an affordable product. Since nobody's had their Eureka! moment yet, the odds are pretty good that I'll never see the step-changes in battery price and performance that are just around the corner if we only believe hard enough.
    29 Jul 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    JP, you are from Florida ! And somehow you didn't get the word. You should be ashamed.

     

    From Disney hisself:

     

    When you wish upon a star
    makes no difference who you are
    Anything your heart desires
    Will come to you !
    . . . . .
    Like a bolt out of the blue
    fate steps in & sees you through
    When you wish upon a star
    Your dream comes true !

     

    Sigh..................
    29 Jul 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I grew up in Arizona and practiced law in Texas before embarking on my Swiss adventure a little over 15 years ago. I am presently in Florida because my wife has a project here, but I view Florida as a temporary stop on the highway of life and expect to be living in Texas or Kentucky in the not too distant future.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    KENTUCKY ? ?? ??

     

    Werry inneresting.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    One can never predict the path of a project like ePower and while I can handle things effectively from distance in the early days, it could just as easily morph into a much larger commitment that requires proximity. Texas is my first choice for family reasons but if push comes to shove, business requirements will prevail for a reasonable period of time.
    29 Jul 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    My preference for a Walt Disney quote:

     

    “Around here, however, we don’t look backwards for very long. We keep moving forward, opening up new doors and doing new things… and curiosity keeps leading us down new paths.”

     

    - Walt Disney

     

    Stolen from the ending of the underrated kids movie "Meet the Robinsons." Right now my sons' favorite movie, which should last another 4-5 days.
    29 Jul 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    JP, Texas is a big place. Wherein ?
    29 Jul 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    My wife's parents, two of my daughters and all four of my grandchildren are in Houston, so that's certainly the highest likelihood.
    29 Jul 2013, 07:56 PM