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  • It's lonely here at the top.


    Continuing on from the shipping link. If you only need a small number of LEAD ACID BATTERY LEAD TERMINAL PLASTIC PCS, they can be sent through the mail. The shipping container probably goes by rail to Philadelphia before heading to New Castle. Anybody in Chicago in to train spotting?
    22 Aug 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • "You can never be free, until you let yourself go".
    22 Aug 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • You are controlled by what you own.


    22 Aug 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • the distance between "more" and "enough" never changes.
    22 Aug 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Last time was September ...
    22 Aug 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • The high profile launch of the NS 999 was followed in very short order by catastrophic battery failures. When public companies make a media event of innovation and a technology failure turns the event into a circus within a matter of weeks, the embarrassment is overwhelming. I believe their hard experience from speaking too quickly about the NS 999 is the biggest reason for NS' secretive nature on the second-generation.


    In June 2011, I wrote a focus article on the NS 999 and they were angry enough that I was asked to produce my research files to prove that I hadn't gotten my facts through back-channel communication with Axion.



    When I asked for interview with Gerhard Thelen, I was told flat out that NS didn't want any public discussion of their next steps until a successful switcher prototype had been on the rails for several months. They were once burned and twice shy.


    NS knows that it has some very diligent Axionista snoops digging into its business and trying to figure out what's going on. Since they took delivery of the batteries in December I'm beginning to suspect that they may be using the NS 999 as a visible distraction while doing the real work on another chassis in a different location.


    In three decades of dealing with scientists, I've observed a clear pattern where they want to preserve their prototypes for posterity instead of rebuilding the same prototype over and over again. Heck, even tiny ePower wants to keep one sample of each generation.


    Since the work required to strip the NS 999 down to chassis and rebuild it with PbC batteries isn't all that different from the work required to strip the NS XXXX down to chassis and rebuild it with PbC batteries, we may be looking in the wrong direction.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Once upon a time (2011, I believe) there was a press article in the New Castle paper stating that the BP4 was going to be tested in a small yard NE of there. There is a small shop & engine house there ... so, who knows. I don't know any "Train Spotters" in that region. Anything is possible.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • JP, I have to suspect you may be right here. The cost to make another pretty 999 is considerable but the stripping of an old yard engine for installation of the electronic system necessary for TEMLO would be much more manageable. Also easier to test the system out of the public spotlight.


    Meanwhile, NS999 pretty paint job and reconfiguration remains for posterity and perfection.


    The whole thing seems interesting. Wish I knew where those batteries are. :>)
    22 Aug 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • I think NS tendency for secrecy and avoiding any public discussion may have ended when their own high-profile sustainability report touted the NS999, specifically called out Axion, and suggested that the roll-out is imminent. That also argues against NS999 being some sort of ploy while work continues on another platform.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • ngs, you're probably right. That said however they have to begin working with multiple locomotives sooner or later.


    I wanna know where the batteries are now. If we knew that we could nip this speculation as you have suggested.
    22 Aug 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • VW: "... nip this speculation"


    Then, sans any real info from sources that might really know, we have nothing to talk about! :-((


    22 Aug 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Its ALL speculation.


    Whether we are talking about what an ePower conversion really costs - or what we used to think it will cost -or how sneaky an embarrassed big RR might or might not be - or when and if the Gang of .25 will alter their AXPW strategy, and if so, how...


    Its at least on topic, if not based upon solid facts.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • >Valleywood ... Just to add a little color to my nearest previous post. Earlier I wasn't on my computer, so no links.


    All things are possible. If you're of the opinion NSC will test outside of the public eye with another locomotive before rolling the NS999, here is a glimmer of hope it could, maybe, kinda be possible.


    "According to an Axion news release issued in June, Norfolk-Southern’s 100 percent electric (all-battery) switcher was being rebuilt at its Neshannock Township production facility using a new type of PbC lead-carbon battery suited for both electric and hybrid locomotive applications." [3Oct2012, New Castle News]



    To the best of my knowledge NS999 has never been close to this location. The shop there is just a repair depot so I've my doubts. Hey, Norfolk might even possess enough batteries to make 2 units because I can't remember how big the strings they were testing in Roanoke or at Penn State.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Any chance we could turn a Newcastle employee to put a GPS on each crate? or at least put some 'spy dust; on them? :>
    22 Aug 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Well I have one of the few NS veterans I still visit with showing up in a few hours. Well drink, dine, and cavort with our wives so I won't be able to post tomorrow, so I'll put this up now.


    It's almost Friday, so what the bleep ? Eat well this weekend, folks!

    22 Aug 2013, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Very fun VW. Very fun indeed.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Third for the new guy?
    22 Aug 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin,


    Almost forgot. Check out Alexander Kent and Richard Bolitho.


    Would love to expand dalliance over sailing books but I have to get to the dump. Garbage must be gone before guests arrive, says SWMBO. Hopefully I will be allowed to return though . . . .
    22 Aug 2013, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • Great series of books, just take breaks in between as there are so many books in the series. My suggestion would be the original Sherlock Holmes short stories which keeps the British theme.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • VW,


    I've read more than half of the Bolitho series, as I recall from looking at the list on Wikipedia.


    I've read most of the Ramage series from Dudley Pope:


    Particularly delightful and mildly bawdy compared to most in the genre are the works of Dewey Lambdin, whose character Alan Lewrie is a bit of a rogue compared to Hornblower, Ramage or Aubrey:


    But I always come back to O'Brian's Aubrey/Maturin stories as the most loveable and human characters and the most vivid slice of 18th century nautical life.


    If you want stories that were written in that era by real sea-captains and sailors, you can find in the public domain the works of Captain Frederick Marryat and Two Years Before the Mast by Richard Henry Dana. Download them from Gutenberg.



    Or find on Amazon:

    22 Aug 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • My dad is planning Christmas sailing in Belize this year for whichever kids and grandkids can make it.


    I shall probably take along some Aubrey/Maturin stories downloaded to my iPad. Nothing like reading them while sailing!
    22 Aug 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • You did buy the Russell Crowe movie, right?


    Very pretty stuff, that.
    22 Aug 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, Crowe made a pretty good Aubrey. Splendid ship scenes.


    But I think it was a part just tailor-made for John Goodman, with Johnny Depp as Maturin.
    22 Aug 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • JP


    Thanks for further thoughts on PIPE and price movement


    "it's not in the best interest of the PIPErs to push the price down and keep it down because that puts them in a position where they get more shares every month, but they have to put more pressure on a distressed market every month..Easier ways to skin the cat.


    In a perfect PIPErs world, they'd be the only sellers and could move the price up at will. Since that's not possible in a company like Axion the next best thing is to cause enough uncertainty to flush as many shares as possible out of weak hands before you start moving the price up. When you can flush stock out of weak hands and increase the number of shares you get for your first couple installments at the same time, it's pretty close to nirvana"


    I gather you are pushing your forecast date for price appreciation back to September now


    Is that correct?


    What about further issue of shares and their continuing the process of quick profits? Is there a rest period for the issuing of further shares to the PIPE'r


    Piper sounds about right re who is playing the tune right now
    22 Aug 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • My perspective differs. The PIPERs want volume ( liquidity) and they will take their pound of flesh one way or the other. Optimize? Yes. But they will not take the risk of waiting so if it's 1 cent instead of 1.1 cents so be it.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • The readers who suggested the end of August was a better end date for the price pressure than the end of July were paying special attention to the impact of historic trading periods on the monthly "true-up installments" that begin September 1st. As I read the contracts the true-up calculations might reduce the PIPErs total return if they let up pressure before the end of August. While I haven't fully modeled the impacts, the theory has solid appeal. Once we get past August, I see no reason the PIPErs would prefer low prices to high prices.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Hit pretty hard today. Maybe people thinking about the 70K total versus 70K additional numbers for the ePower retrofit? Looking forward to John's piece.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • "Looking forward to John's piece."


    Uhhh... pardon?
    22 Aug 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Errr, Mr. McHattie! Please stand in the hallway. :-l
    22 Aug 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • I didn't promise a write up on my analysis of ePower's cost structure and economics because I'm far too early in the process to even consider making such a promise. The analysis that needs to be done will be the work of weeks or months, not days.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Whatever the case, just looking forward to additional information or something to chew on.
    22 Aug 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Am curious when the new order will be disclosed and who it's for. I suppose only significant sales will change market sentiment. However, the size of the market is so big.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • There could be news about the APU customer "soon".


    As far as I remember from the 1st. quarter CC we were promised that we would hear more about this "in the coming months".
    3 months have now passed.


    But of course 24 months is also "in the coming months". :-)
    22 Aug 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick, what is that a picture of in your avatar? It looks like a map of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific ocean.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • It is actually a tomographic map of the Pacific.
    28 Jan, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • TG's wrist watch. So far it's been pretty accurate. :-(

    22 Aug 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • This is simply too rich to pass up, company or no.


    Axionistas were desperately needed !


    Axionistas, UNITE !

    22 Aug 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • VW . . OK, I'll bite. All we need is 196 of us and for the Guinness people to approve the category and we could set our own record and get some free PR for our beloved company.




    P.S. Could we all do it from the comfort of our homes in pajamas via webcast or something?
    22 Aug 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • 1. Record charge acceptance rate for a Lead Acid Battery.
    2. Record number full discharges for a LAB. (Real discharges, not this 5% excrement)
    3. Highest number of comments for a nano-cap stock.
    4. Proof that a watched pot never boils. (Everyone: look away from the ticker)
    22 Aug 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • I am trying to get-my-head-around the potential revenue to Axion for each PbC sold. I have heard on this site the figure $400 per battery, but realize, Axion will not be selling the battery, only the carbon electrode. Does anyone have a ROUGH estimate of how much $ Axion can realize to their top line for each carbon electrode sold to a licensing partner?
    22 Aug 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • The retail price of a Group 30H AGM battery on Amazon ranges from $170 to $240 depending on the vendor. Since middle-men need to make a buck even if they sell on Amazon, you can figure a loading dock price in the neighborhood of $160 for the battery manufacturer.


    Axion is charging ePower about $360 for a Group 30H AGM battery with PbC electrodes. So the incremental end user cost is on the order of $200. If you assume a manufacturer that buys electrode assemblies from Axion will want to earn a 25% gross margin, the value of PbC electrodes as components should be on the order of $150 per battery.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting. Thanks for the info, JP. I'm thinking you inferred Axion pricing to ePower of "about $360" per PbC based on an earlier TG reference to "more than $20K" per truck. We also have a statement citing $25K for batteries plus pack management system. So, $360 per PbC appears a pretty good low ball number for the battery.
    22 Aug 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • The $25,000 estimate is the all in cost of the battery pack including battery mounting boxes and BMS software.
    22 Aug 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • John, I thought that it was announced that the BMS was an Axion salable item. Is this the case? Is it the software only if it is an Axion asset?
    22 Aug 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • The BMS is an Axion intellectual property, but it doesn't have much value if you're trying to manage something other than a string of PbCs. Under the circumstances, I'm not sure whether the BMS is a separate value added item or included in the price of the batteries.


    Battery management on a string of PbC's just isn't that complicated because of the self-equalization. While I'm sure they're measuring the state of health and charge level on each battery, the kind of active balancing you see with other chemistries simply isn't needed.
    22 Aug 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John.


    A couple added questions. Was ePower able to reduce the active balancing system in their prototype when they transitioned from AGM to PbC? Are they still monitoring individual battery health and if they are would their plan be to eliminate this given favorable data?


    Obviously no need to explain when things can't be shared.
    22 Aug 2013, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • I haven't dug down into the details of what they did previously in terms of active balancing so I really don't know the answer except to say that flooded and AGM were big headaches and the PbC has performed perfectly so far.
    22 Aug 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Was hoping to get a perspective on the complexity/cost difference between the two systems but it's really not that important. It would be nice to know their perspective on where they hope to progress to with PbC. Will they still monitor individual batteries for health as one point.


    Anyway, if you can and choose to do so, something for the future.
    22 Aug 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • I think Axion wants to monitor the individual batteries closely because they've been coming up with lots of real-time data gathering and transmission gizmos so they can monitor an ePower tractor in real time the same way they monitor the PowerCube.


    PS: Gizmo is a technical term they teach in law school.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • "PS: Gizmo is a technical term they teach in law school"


    For liberal arts majors it's "watchamacallit'!


    22 Aug 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • In undergraduate school the accounting term was widget.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • "thinguamajig", "watchamacalit", and sometimes "comealong" in various alma maters here.
    22 Aug 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Trending, especially across the pond: "thingy".
    22 Aug 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • :-) "doofotchit" stirs from deep recesses of memory.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • John, Thanks. I'd expect no less at this stage of the game. Data is everything.


    Thus your often shared point concerning the BMW/NSC relationships. Little shared public data, for those of us that "need" to know, but worth more than the little start up could ever afford.


    And so we wait for a little color at the bottom of the pan as we swirl it around in the stream. Winter or a drought are commin' soon. I can feel it. Must find yellow specs fast or everything will cease immediately.


    BTW, I can appreciate my last sentence because we are eating at the company store.
    22 Aug 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • JP typed:
    " I think Axion wants to monitor the individual batteries closely because they've been coming up with lots of real-time data gathering and transmission gizmos"


    Monitoring the voltage (charge level) of each cell, or even each 12V battery, is not free! If you add in the data concentrator to accept all of the data from individual measurement units distributed along the string(s), it's a Project. Sounds like fun. I wonder just how much $$ they put into the effort?


    But oh, that lovely, lovely data! [ I am a technical nerd, after all]
    23 Aug 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, Some of the most expensive data collected is the data that is gathered after it was needed the most. Sometimes lawyers use the term "evidence" for this level of data collection! 8-(
    23 Aug 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Income Statement Period Ending Jun 30, 2013
    Net Income Applicable To Common Shares 86
    A plus value and not a negative one. Good start.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • >gezeke ... Estimate is something around $100 to $125USD per battery for electrodes. If anyone knows how much a Pb electrode + paste (carbon additive ... or not) + labor/shop time costs then we'd know the premium paid for an Axion electrode. I'm sure we've been through this exercise before but I can't remember it.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • NASDAQ crashed.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • ii,
    I promise my granddaughter was at home and not driving. ;-)
    22 Aug 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Yep. Hard to stay on top of things today, chaos in the markets and brokerages. On again, off again...
    22 Aug 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed, We all gotta learn. Hopefully fast and without hurting things outside of the material classification.


    All the distractions vs when we were younger. People need to put their electronics away. Uggh.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Spent some time on a couple of Tesla forums yesterday.
    It seems they are very fast off a light. Even when they are second in line. :)


    I think it was Boston; the only body-shop that was Tesla 'approved' had a dozen MS in it. Eleven had nose damage. Apparently some relearning is necessary.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks DRich.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • I'm guessing we're scraping along at the bottom here, with .125 providing a pretty good floor. --- I could be wrong of course, but just added a few more shares @ .1319.
    22 Aug 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • Curious. Is someone here tracking what proportion of total shares acquired to date by the PIPING collective have now been off loaded (as measured by the metrics deemed most appropriate by the cognoscenti). Are they dumping all or substantively all? Is it possible to infer from market data with appropriate assumptions?
    22 Aug 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Anthj: IMHO we can never *know*. Market-makers are also on both sides of many trades buying and selling for their customers, that may include more than PIPers, and for their own profit, which includes daily short sales and, I believe, short-term long positions (mostly via order flowing in for sell orders which they shorted and subsequently already covered at lower than sell price).


    I think the best we can do is make rough estimates based on timing and volumes.


    I presume today they did a lot of selling, along with at least three of the prior four high-volume days.


    My buy:sell ratios might be a clue too, but they are experimental and I've found no way to provide absolute correlation.


    22 Aug 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, if you are correct, what a game we are in
    22 Aug 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • For May, June, July and August cumulative FINRA shorts have totaled just a hair under 12 million shares which would generate about $2 million at the VWAP and more for a smart seller. Going by the difference in the number of outstanding shares reported in the Q1 and Q2 Form 10-Qs it looks like the PIPErs received at total of 18 million shares through August 7th. My bet is that they're not holders and wouldn't buy green bananas at Costco.
    22 Aug 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Nissan first OEM production for steer by wire in passenger car.


    Why we're not fearing the loss of moving parts in new cars

    22 Aug 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Appreciate the feedback.
    So if PIPERS have sold, best guess, 12 of 18 million, then another 6 million remain to be dumped, unless they hold onto a portion to see if something good happens in the medium term. Perhaps one of the parties is holding?


    If this pattern continues, though, does it not mean continued downward pressure on price for at least the remainder of the PIPE? How can that be avoided? Can they dispose of such volumes without driving down price? Surely new buyers must first emerge if we are to see price recovery and then issuance of fewer new shares in a positive reinforcement cycle? Demand at 12-15 c has been surprisingly (to me) robust, but will that continue to be the case.


    Sell some batteries, please
    22 Aug 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • "Sell some batteries, please"


    anthlj, Success solves many problems.
    22 Aug 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • 08/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in the A.M?).
    # Trds: 213, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 74200, Vol 2029326, AvTrSz: 9527
    Min. Pr: 0.1270, Max Pr: 0.1490, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1337
    # Buys, Shares: 81 620677, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1350
    # Sells, Shares: 129 1378649, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1330
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 30000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1385
    Buy:Sell 1:2.22 (30.6% “buys”), DlyShts 180939 (8.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.12%


    Today was the fourth highest volume since I began tracking in February of '12.


    The daily short volume was much higher than yesterday (9.78 times yesterday's) but the percentage was low because of the high trading volume. Regardless, it was good to see that yesterdays percentage, 1.99%, stopped right at one of the trend lines I had added and today moved up from there. This leads me to think that we could see some price move up in a couple of days as the market-makers do what market-makers do.


    Of the 23 peeks at the ask, 7 were bumps up and 16 were reductions. Buyers responded appropriately as 5 peeks out of 18 raised bids and 13 reduced bids.


    As we might expect when price gets low enough, the buy percentage improved from yesterday's 22.3%. There's a way to go before we can sight any bulls though. For now I think it's just buyers who see low risk. We'll know we have bulls when they start driving price higher rather than letting the wet-noodle sellers drive price lower. This will be visible when the buy percentage gets back into the 35%+ range consistently enough to move the near-term averages back towards the longer-term averages (percentages of 40, 37 and 39 for the 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively).


    Yesterday I said in part “... although today's EOD readings suggest that a change in trend may NOT yet have occurred. Today this last assessment seems born out by an apparent return to what is “normal” for our stock”. Today continues “what is “normal” for our stock” - dumpster diving! Axion stock is a homeless person in disguise. A homeless person has a better appearance.


    Yesterday I foolishly spaketh thusly: “Today may break the trend as an unexpected burst of bullish behavior appeared at 13:49 ... I'm now expecting a daily short sales spike and if it occurs it suggests a change in trend. Doesn't suggest up or down, just a change”. Well, if trading volume hadn't been so high we would've had a spike in daily short sales. As it is, the percentage did still move nicely up but the VWAP moved (10.78%).


    Saving face – what's left of it – I did note yesterday that my observations and metrics did not support a continued push up in price.


    I anxiously await the posited support of price by the financiers, or better yet, by BIG news. Speaking of financiers ...


    Peek below at what's happening to the 85% price as we inject another sub-$0.14 VWAP day into the 40-day window. From 8/5 to today our 85% price has dropped 6.1% from $0.1295 to today's $0.1216. The coming issuance should be more fun than a barrel of monkey's (feces).


    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
    08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
    08/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
    08/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
    08/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1431, x 85%: $0.1216


    Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
    Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31, 1775.55, 928.88, 2029.33.


    I've stopped putting percentages for the inflection point stuff here – rapidly getting too long. They're in the instablog in a more coordinated fashion for those with an interest.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    22 Aug 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Something to take our minds off the pain

    22 Aug 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • For those who aren't inclined to watch the whole video, I thought the comments at the end on Elon Musk were the funniest of all.
    22 Aug 2013, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jpau: that was great.


    23 Aug 2013, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • Does a dump truck use the standard "Day Cab" configuration? If so, what does the market look like for that type of truck?


    *** Interesting data ...
    - Real-World Class 8 Fuel Economy Ranges from 7.9 to 9.5 mpg
    - Idling a Truck-Tractor’s Engine Can Use a Gallon of Fuel per Hour
    23 Aug 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Greentongue, In the case of GM their commercial vehicles in this range are the GMT530/560.



    PS The Presidents Cadillac is actually riding on the commercial truck platform and is not a Cadillac at all. Yep, a special skinned full commercial frame truck. A "Beast" for sure.
    23 Aug 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Dump trucks and cement mixers are in Class 8 because of their weight. Most are not tractor trailer combinations and they're not a current focus for ePower.


    The Oak Ridge study is interesting, but the fuel economy numbers are basically calculated values on flat roads with grades of under 1%.


    The EPA's SmartWay Program collects data from 3,045 fleet operators throughout the US and Canada. Their actual mpg figures are significantly lower than the theoretical values from Oak Ridge.


    Class 8A –
    Class 8B –
    Fleet Averages –
    23 Aug 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • :-) Purely anecdotal but also indicative of actual mpg vs "theoretical"


    Grumman LLVs operated by the USPS, assessed in 1988, had an average EPA fuel economy is 17 mpg (16 city/18 highway). Postal service delivery personnel where I live in central Maryland report driving ~20 miles/day six days per week on two refuelings of ~12 gals each. 120 miles/24 gallons = ~5 mpg.
    23 Aug 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • JP,


    Has ePower looked into using the small configuration that it has been running and adapting it to the massive fleet of 480,000 School Buses in the United States?


    Just a thought.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • I find it interesting that (based on eyeballing the graphs) that the difference in the median fuel economy between class 8a and 8b is maybe .5mpg if that. I would have expected it to be more, but maybe it's a confirming data point for the point that trucks rarely operate anywhere near their maximum weight capability.


    Still, I think ePower's experience indicates that trucking companies want every rig to have that capability.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Not yet. It selected Class 8 trucking because the average annual mileage is 60,000 for the Class 8A fleet and 80,000 for the Class 8B fleet.



    While Class 8 trucks represent a small percentage of the total transportation fleet, they consume a majority of the fuel. Any time you're trying to develop a new efficiency technology, you need to focus first on the users who will benefit most from the innovation.


    If engine dominant series hybrid drive succeeds in heavy trucks the technology may well trickle down into other attractive markets. For now anyway, ePower views those ancillary markets as a distraction rather than a target.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • APMarshall: Might also be that 8A have more frequent starts and stops while 8B has longer highway trips in the drivetrain's maximum efficiency area?


    23 Aug 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Great to see ePower have the discipline to keep focusing on their primary mkts. While it's a lot of fun for outsiders to brainstorm ideas, getting spread thin sure can wreck a start-up company. More is less.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • I would think urban trash trucks would be a good fit for an ePower type hybridization. Accelerate 50 ft, then rapid stop; accelerate 50 ft then rapid stop....all day long.
    23 Aug 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with the trash truck idea.
    We keep hearing it is the fast recharge that recovers regenerative energy that makes the PbC valuable. Not the long steady driving between uses.
    So, you save fuel by using the smallest motor possible or you save fuel by frequent reusing of energy. Both seem to be useful target markets/products.
    23 Aug 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • >nogoodslacker ... I'm not going to agree on the Trash Truck idea for the simple reason that is is basically a hydraulic machine. The recovery & storage of hydraulic energy for acceleration makes far more sense to me than adding a new & different system to it.
    23 Aug 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • The school bus idea may be OK but as a guess they generally only drive about 2 hours in the morning and two in the afternoon, five days a week and only operate 9 months a year.
    Say 1/4-1/3 of full time OTR truck.
    The case for fuel savings to offset the additional upfront cost is much less.
    While a robust stop start system and electrical drive hybrid makes sense. Probably adoption rates would be no better than replacement rate at best.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • A city bus would be a better fit than a school bus.
    23 Aug 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • GT
    Yeah I agree.
    City bus would be good. Grayhound type long distance might be good too. Lots of draw keeping AC going when stopped.
    23 Aug 2013, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • "The school bus idea may be OK but as a guess they generally only drive about 2 hours in the morning and two in the afternoon, five days a week and only operate 9 months a year. Say 1/4-1/3 of full time OTR truck. "


    All very good points. On the other side of the equation though are marked differences in respective weight of the vehicles and use patterns. School buses have many stops per mile while class 8 vehicles seldom do and max GVW on school buses is on the lower boundary weight range for class 8A vehicles. An engine dominant hybrid school bus would probably have less need of 65 mph - 70 mph capability as well.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • frpggey77> " they generally only drive about 2 hours in the morning and two in the afternoon"


    basis of this statement is?


    because it doesn't conform to my experience.
    24 Aug 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Obieephyhm


    Morning pickup of all students, afternoon pickup of all students.
    approximately half hour for high, Jr, middle, and elementary schools.
    Most of the rest is the odd field trip or an after school trip for sports etc.


    School bus drivers are part time and generally home for lunch.
    At least in my area they are.
    Yes I do presently know a school bus driver.


    In Illinois


    "In most occupations, only workers who work full time receive benefits. This is not true for school bus drivers. Most school bus drivers work part time, but almost all of them receive benefits. "


    Generally a four hour break in the middle of the day.
    Perhaps; it is not true everywhere but it is in the areas I've known.
    24 Aug 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • froggey


    hmmm -- that differs (at least at first blush) from around here. most bus companies are running at least 25% all day 5-6 days (at least one company I know is running over 50%) a week -- school runs are longer than the time allotted in your example, three bus companies in my immediate area run services for (at least) four school districts in four counties plus charters plus day trips plus athletics plus road trips for special events. most also do runs for the rising crop of specialty 'schools' as well lease to larger churches for sunday events. on top of that, most are running the short-run disability buses/shuttles for schools, community centers, sheltered workshops and senior facilities and, in at least one case, they are running a city bus service (not, of course, with school buses).


    based on personal experience (okay, i admit that was a long time ago) and the conversations I've had with those who are currently driving -- the only drivers working 'part-time' are those that want to. the rest pretty much have as many hours a day that they want.
    back in my day, I started at 5am (at the latest) and didn't get back to the 'barn' until 10am. had to be back at 2pm and usually didn't get back to the barn until 6pm unless there were extra athletic runs. I was always being pressured to skip classes (mine, at university) to drive charters during the day.


    guess i'm saying that I wouldn't give up on the school bus idea merely because of your local situation. I think there may be a good fit in here assuming one does a bit of digging to get the logistics of what's really happening.


    so, I'm suspecting there are regional differences (small communities with consolidated schools, for example, may have *much* longer runs for school-age but less on the charters and day-trips).
    24 Aug 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • APH,


    Thank you for putting the troll "out of our misery."


    23 Aug 2013, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin, The person or more likely persons have some kind of venomous sickness. Very hard to figure what motivates people with such ailments. Especially for people without formal training in the areas of mental health.
    23 Aug 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • IINDelco and SMaturin,
    I assume something got deleted during the night while we slept?
    23 Aug 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Just JR stopping by for a usual moment of self fulfillment. Nothing noteworthy as per the norm.
    23 Aug 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Three Things That Could Slow Down Tesla


    Per EM,


    "“I think battery cell supply for long term production growth is my biggest concern,” he told me as we stood by a silver Model S halfway through the assembly line. “The current lithium-ion production capacity in the world can only support a few hundred thousand cars.”"

    23 Aug 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    "Tesla is working with battery cell suppliers such as Panasonic and LG Chem to make sure there’s greater supply"


    Well, looks like we know where his second source of battery cells is going to be coming from now.
    I would think the problem is also going to be the fact that Tesla doesn't buy batteries, they buy cells and built their own battery packs. So they have to have enough production of the cells they use in their packs, which may not be the same design that other battery manufacturers put into their battery packs.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech, One of Elon's claims to fame is that he uses commodity cells to keep the price down. Well it looks like that is only true in form and not function. Note that LG and Panasonic are both more mature players in supporting the needs of automotive.
    23 Aug 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Washington—Volkswagen AG wants federal and state regulators to do more to encourage fuel-efficient diesel vehicles.


    “We’re not feeling the love,” said Anna Schneider, vice president for industry and government relations at VW Group of America, at a forum on the future of diesel vehicles Tuesday held by the automaker’s luxury unit Audi. “This is one of the greenest choices... It’s time the U.S. government included clean diesel in its ‘all of the above’ strategy’ for greening U.S. roads. Putting these vehicles on the road should be incentivized and not penalized, and that’s our goal.”


    Electric vehicles are eligible for federal and state tax credits, single-driver access to carpool lanes, free parking and other benefits. She noted that 15 states impose additional taxes on diesel — and federal diesel taxes are 6 cents higher than gasoline taxes. “When you’re going to the pump you have sticker shock.”


    From The Detroit News:
    23 Aug 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • She's just trying to confuse the issue with logic.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • own diesel audi a3 - love it. from greenville to charlotte and back on one tank.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane,
    Diesel is always going to be seen as a "dirty" fuel that puts more particulate matter into the air. Much like lead, it is something that is never going to be championed by the current administration no matter what the data says. IMHO.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Disagree LabTech,


    I believe the new diesel engines & fuel formulations are changing that perception. The MPG advantages are helping as well.


    Disclosure, I drive a 1985 MBZ 300TD. Not a new engine of course but the mileage (~25 highway) bests most cars of that day and many much newer cars. Also, 230K miles (no major maintenance) and it runs great.


    23 Aug 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Can anyone comment on how the new soot controls (SCR, DEF) on diesel engines might add to maintenance costs?
    23 Aug 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • >D Lane ... The purchase of diesel exhaust fluid is one added expense.



    Another is, like ethanol in gasoline, it can corrode some metals and so must be stored and transported carefully.
    23 Aug 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Seems to run about 5-7 USD/gallon. Do you know the consumption rate?
    23 Aug 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) consumption is measured as a ratio of diesel fuel use, normally termed the "dosing rate" or "treat rate". Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles have a dosing rate of 2-3%. This means that if your truck has a fuel efficiency of six miles per gallon and a dosing rate of 3% it will use approximately 1 gallon of DEF every 200 miles.


    How the system works (UTube):


    Here's a calculator ... for that more exact answer:
    23 Aug 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I thank you sir!
    23 Aug 2013, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • DR and ii,
    I thought you guys were kidding about diesel fluid, like when you run out of blinker fluid when the turn signals don;t work any more ( or you forget to use them). ;-)
    When I stopped driving there was a scrubber on the trucks and the computer was set to produce high heat on grades to cleanse the scrubber or to run a clean routine at idle for a period up to 30 minutes. Are there different systems now, or has there been a consolidation to this one system?
    23 Aug 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • >Stilldazed ... I know there are still scrubber systems out there. I don't know if they meet the next set of emissions standards. The selective catalytic system is the new and seeming standard for new diesel engines that need it. Simply put ... I don't know how many different systems there are or what is passable.


    >D Lane ... The other maintenance cost I forgot to include, and it's a biggie, is if you neglect to use the fluid, soot will build up in the exhaust system. This will add unwanted back pressure to the cylinders, valves, injectors and put unnecessary strain on bearings & seals. Slow death.
    23 Aug 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed, This technology was developed to meet new Federal air quality standards as they are phased in.


    One article on the topic. I'm sure there is better information if you wish to dig deeper.


    EGR tanks, Navistar opts for urea-based emissions system


    "Navistar International Corp. now says it would rather switch than fight.


    After several years of touting its “customer-friendly” solution for stringent U.S. clean air standards, the maker of International-brand trucks and MaxxForce diesel engines said Friday it would adopt a urea-based aftertreatment system to meet 2010 Environmental Protection Agency emissions regulations and position the company to meet coming greenhouse gas rules in advance of 2014 and 2017 requirements."

    23 Aug 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks guys!
    23 Aug 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Geopark,
    I agree with you in terms of consumer views. I disagree with you in terms of the view of our DOE and Executive Branch of government.
    23 Aug 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech,


    Yes, I see now you were responding D Lane's comment on government acceptance, my mistake, and I do agree. Thanks, geopark
    23 Aug 2013, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the answers guys. Goes to show how fast technology can develop when you aren't looking.
    24 Aug 2013, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • My DEF tank holds 22 gallons, which lasts about 4,000 miles. DEF fluid is nowadays readily available in bulk (at the fuel island, just like diesel) @ $2.79/gal, or in 2.5 gal containers inside the convenience store 2 approx. $15.00. Seems to use more DEF under a heavy load/mountanous terrain, but just a non-scientific observation...
    25 Aug 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks Brian.


    So at the bulk rate about 1.5 cents/mile for DEF. A little over twice that for retail DEF at the auto parts store. 200 lbs added to your load when the tank is full.
    25 Aug 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Once ePower becomes a stable customer with set configurations, would Axion build specialized battery packs for them?
    Could there be significant cost reductions by going to "packs" instead of bundling standard batteries together?
    Would "packs" make sense or would the easy swapping of individual batteries be worth the extra materials needed?
    23 Aug 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • >greentongue ... To build packs, as you suggest, would require a really big effort. To change the formfactor would require a new case size ... leading to new electrode fabrication lines, new assembly lines and this is after the R&D required to find out if it worked as expected and had any drawbacks or management problems. It would be a unique manufacturing undertaking that could/would not be able to be farmed out to existing battery OEMs making Axion its own sole source. There are no other LAB "pack" manufactures I know of.


    There is a reason Axion decided, long ago, to build to the 3 most popular & similar formfactors in the industry. That would be to cut down on as much customization as possible to get wide acceptance (have to wonder about that) & keep cost down.


    Besides, a string, like PowerCube or Hub, is sort of a "pack" already.


    Get back to us with your idea when Axion is profitable & capitalized around $1B USD and/or gets a manufacturing partner that will foot the bill. There is only so much a company can do with $1.5M to $2M per quarter to spend.
    23 Aug 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Too bad the batteries cannot currently be 3D Printed into the configurations needed.
    23 Aug 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • News and events surrounding the latest conference call and related financials have given me added comfort that all will be well with AXPW with patience


    I believe TG is trying to tell us this if you read between the lines.


    He is excited


    More importantly there is a plan and a vision.


    It is focused on the low hanging fruit that will produce the earliest sustainable cash flow.


    I expect the cube will generate purchase orders; announced sales and cash flow with six months. Amounts unknown – but reading between TG lines I believe sales will make a statement now - and for the future potential


    Then trucks will follow – slowly, steadily and then in a significant way for the bottom line


    Both Cube and trucks will prove the tech and its value and lead to other significant potential markets


    They (and I) are not counting on locomotive but it could begin generating profitable sales at anytime


    Regular meetings with BMW and battery manufacturer are going well - up to them to get their act together and AXPW will be ready. Sounds like they are just giving auto possibilities time as requested - confident that AXPW’s day will come


    The relationship with East Penn is solid


    They will be rounding out the team with a new CFO by next Conference call. Many candidates and TG used the interview questions as the context to talk about customer priorities and potential


    Hey and we have money to operate to at least Q3 in 2014


    The Ugly


    The ugly is the disconnect between internal day to day progress and where the share price has morphed. Clearly influenced by investors who should really be looking for higher prices in a perfect World.


    What were management expecting when they signed the PIPE deal? Did they just want to protect the cash flow and their salaries at any cost? I have to think they (we) were taken to the cleaners. Was a strategy even considered? What happened to tranche 2 of the 2012 finance deal?


    At least negotiate a reasoned holding period of not less than a year to let things develop.


    Out of space - more to follow
    23 Aug 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Re: The Ugly


    I don't like the PIPE terms any more than other stockholders and knowing management I can guarantee that they're not pleased either. Street stockholders can whine about average costs in the $0.30 to $0.50 range but the insiders invested millions in the $1.50 plus range so what hurts the street stockholders a little is agony for the old guard.


    I quite confident that management pursued a strategic partner till the bitter end and at the 11th hour the strategic partner tried the inevitable squeeze. At that point management had to choose between dancing with the devil for pocket change or selling Axion's soul to the devil for a few dollars more.


    I've spent three decades dealing with investors and can tell you first hand that:


    (a) Institutional investors always demand and get a discount from the market because they face long-term liquidity and price risks that street investors can't even begin to imagine. It's one thing to pay $1 for a couple thousand shares of something you can sell in a heartbeat and another entirely to pay $1 for something that would take you months to liquidate under optimal conditions.


    (b) Institutional investors don't give a tinker's dam whether the street stockholders like their deal terms or hate them. Their only concern is ensuring a return of capital and hopefully a return on capital. The only times I've seen negotiated holding periods is when new money wants to lock old investors out of the market.


    (c) I give every new client the same lecture when I'm trying to talk them out of going public. I explain that from a corporation's perspective public stockholders are an immense obligation that provides no commensurate benefit. The money they invest to buy shares goes into some other investor's pocket and the money they make when they sell shares ends up in their pocket. The only true benefit a corporation can ever expect to get from its public stockholder base is a liquid market and a credible stock price that can be used in connection with future financing negotiations. When the public stockholders make a game of driving the market price down to obscene levels in an effort to see who can buy the cheapest, the one benefit a corporation hopes to get from its stockholder base becomes a major handicap. New investors, on the other hand, write big checks that go directly into the corporation's treasury and allow it to grow its business.
    23 Aug 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • John: "... so what hurts the street stockholders a little is agony for the old guard"


    It's all relative. For our (likely?) incomes, net worth, how we value our efforts, ... I think all of us have as much agony as others.


    Maybe more since we work in an environment of little information while many of the ones you mention have some visibility to the end points.


    23 Aug 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tom Conrad has updated his AXPW article - part 2
    He is saying in the short term - assuming there is no big announcement - AXPW will trade down until November to $0.05- $0.06.


    JP sees a break out to $0.30 in the short term. So far we are not seeing signs that are convincing me he is going to be right – though I do respect his thoughts, article and efforts.


    Who are you going to believe? What is one to do?


    I just think the overhang swallowed by management is going to control where the price will lead as management sit on their hands without announcements creating a buzz


    Fishing for a bottom has never been easy or worked very well for me


    Let’s say you have a cost base of $100,000 and hold 400K in shares = $0.25 per share


    Tom says sell the 400K now and raise $60K (assumes we will see $0.15 a share in the near term)


    You have then triggered a $40K loss. But you have $60K in cash
    If the stock goes to $0.06 you can buy 1,000,000 shares – better than 400K.


    Still no guarantee the stock will not go lower or bust - but when you buy you will have more information to work with. The risk should therefore be reduced


    Then when the shares go to $1 and more you will have a lower risk gain of $940,000.


    My view is if AXPW gets to a dollar again it is likely headed over time to at least $4 or $5 based on the bottom line momentum of commercial developments that would then be bearing fruit.


    But what if a big announcement comes in the short term and drives the stock to $0.30. Now your $60K will only buy 200,000 shares and limit your future gains as and if AXPW stock price appreciates. However the gains will likely be at a lower risk as an announcement of significance has been made. Usually there is time to get in on good news before the shares run up to $0.30 and more


    Basically Tom is saying - buy when the risk is lower – buy only on the development of news. He is planning to buy himself. Clearly he sees what we see and likes the potential of the AXPW stock


    An alternative of course is to develop cash from other sources; wait for $0.06 and the risks cut and buy whatever shares you can afford and enjoy the ride from there


    In conclusion keep some powder dry (or add to your powder) for the opportunity to buy more shares on news
    23 Aug 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Boils down to the old question of greed, fear and opportunity costs I guess...
    23 Aug 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • My personal strategy is simply to buy more when I think it's a short term low. I was wrong before when the upturn will be, but it's very close now that TG gave us a timeline. I moved more cash into my account today. I think next quarter combined with January will give this stock the greatest boost we've seen since Jan 2012.
    23 Aug 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • I've known Tom Konrad for a long time and generally respect his work. Like many financial writers, however, Tom's experience with PIPEs has been limited to companies that were already overloaded with debt and didn't have sufficient market depth to sustain the increased selling from their PIPE investors.


    Axion doesn't fit that mold. When I stepped aside as counsel, Axion had about 800 stockholders and a 200-day average trading volume of about 4,000 shares a day. Over the last five years the number of stockholders has increased to 5,000 and the 200-day average trading volume has ramped to about 450,000 shares a day. For every investor who's already hit the "buy" button, there's good reason to believe another five or ten are waiting on the sidelines until something newsworthy happens.


    Including yesterday we've seen the price approach $.125 per share and bounce off that bottom three times in a row. The month of August is currently on track for a higher trading volume than the entire 2010 calendar year. The market behavior we've seen since Tom's article was first published has proven him overly pessimistic.


    Tom's strategy might make sense for a 10 or 20 thousand share holder who (a) believes the price is going much longer, (b) watches the screen closely, and (c) can move in and out in a single trade. It makes no sense at all for holders who took months to accumulate hundreds of thousands of shares and couldn't possibly repurchase the same number of shares an instant after a favorable news release.
    23 Aug 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, your thoughts are very similar to mine. I picked up a few more shares yesterday, believing we're scraping along at the pps bottom, and would likely bounce off the .125 mark again. TG's cc revenue/sales timeline and comments have me feeling a lot more relaxed these days [especially since TK's .05 comments].


    Yes, there's still the PIPE shares to contend with as TK points out, but if TG's expected sales, revenue and announcements come to fruition this quarter, and NS rolls out as expected, it should be more than enough to keep the pps from tanking. If any additional positive announcements come along, that could very well prove to be a catalyst for significant appreciation.
    23 Aug 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • On a stock investment blog where every bull has been wrong, usually terribly and consistently so, the truth is Tom Konrad's prognostication so far stands alone.


    When he first published his opinion a month ago, AXPW was roughly 17 cents. Today it is roughly 13 cents, or a decline of over 20% in just one month.


    While his favored second scenario



    shows an expected decline by now to about 11 cents, he was directionally spot-on.


    Another major supply vs demand test is coming within a couple weeks. The price is already close to another all-time low, another big slug of new shares will be given to the flippers, and we're unlikely to get major news until closer to the next conf call (otherwise Granville would have used different wording. He's not unaware nor ignorant).
    23 Aug 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Credible points Mr. I. --- I would point out however, that the pps was at .165 just two days ago, so it might be a bit premature to say TK has been directionally correct [although that could very well prove to be the case]. --- You mentioned "every bull"... It seems you've made some pretty bullish comments recently, so I'm curious if you include yourself in this category. Perhaps bullish on Axion and its prospects, but not so much on its pps?
    23 Aug 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • I believe Granville used the wording he did because it is not up to him when a customer decides to sign the contract.
    I also believe he would not have used those words if he didn't think it could be at any time (but no later than).


    Plus, that/a train could be announced/spotted at any time. Do you feel you can respond faster than the market if either of those happens?
    23 Aug 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne, yes, as often for a data-rich filed like investing, ur conclusions often depend on exactly which data you pick. Big-picture is AXPW has spent the vast majority of its time below 17 cents since Konrad's article.


    I absolutely have made some bullish comments recently. There is still a lot to like about the product. Unfortunately, the product positives have been punishingly overshadowed by the stock negatives. Years of professional investors dumping large quantities. I don't expect that, nor its effect, to end soon.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Cash flow would help on all fronts.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • greent---SInce I don't think huge sticky news comes out before the PIPErs get their next big chunk of shares soon, I would rather wait and see what happens after they do.


    And I'm not expecting a cheery outcome. We had several bounces off of 20 cents, like we've had for 12.5. When it finally broke thru, it plummeted 25% in only a week.


    Could be that everything aligns just right and I miss making a killing, but I'm expecting the falling knife trend to continue.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Investor: are you long the stock? Or are you waiting for a better entry?
    23 Aug 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • OR, I've been in and out. At the moment, I'm out and waiting to see what happens after the next PIPEr round.


    We crack 12.5 and I think the next temp bottom is 10. Things then get REALLY interesting.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor> According to my calculations the investors got their first block of ~6 million shares on June 7th, another block of ~4 million shares on July 8th and yet another block of ~8 million shares on August 2nd. Without 18 million shares of issuances to the PIPErs the share count couldn't have reached 131 million by August 7th, the number reported on the first page of Axion's recent 10-Q.



    The market has bent but it has not broken.


    From here on out it's just a recurring monthly thing with no stock issuances we haven't seen before and an increasing likelihood of news.
    23 Aug 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • roger, thanks! I wonder how many are in your exact boat.
    23 Aug 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • JP, yes the process is not new but the 8.3 million+ additional shares will be. And the big chunk after that, and so on into March.


    I continue to believe that only huge sticky news will turn this knife up, and keep it up. While I'm skeptical we'll get that from PC and long-delayed NS, at a minimum I think we continue down until then. And I think "then" is 2-3 more PIPE rounds away.
    23 Aug 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Time will prove one of us right.
    23 Aug 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • At least less-wrong, as it has up til now. ;^P
    23 Aug 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Just a reminder that Vani will be presenting next week at Agrion. maybe we get a bone thrown to us before his presentation?


    Reducing Solar Balance of System (BoS) Costs

    23 Aug 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • IINDelco,
    It's good to see that there are going to be representatives from both the city and state of NY there, along with capital investment companies, FERC and several power companies. Hopefully, Vani and Axion can stand out a little, when he's not surrounded by a bunch of Li-ion company reps, and remind these different groups that there "is" another solution for storage that works.
    23 Aug 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Attention we could use. Let's hope he catches some attention.


    A nice DOD contract for a cube in front of the meeting would be a good thing to add to the sizzle. Hey, Hope guarantees nothing but it's free so what the heck.
    23 Aug 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • We also have the annual meeting end September where management may wish to make an announcement at or before
    23 Aug 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • I imagine that management would love to have released something or a bunch of something's over the past several months but unfortunately it appears that they are not in control of that process, the potential customers are in control of that it seems! ;-((
    23 Aug 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • I need a break! I thought I had put this in an old APC!


    It is to laugh! ARCA and ATDF got into a spitting contest on the ask and in 6 minutes walked it down from $0.1346 (NITE & PERT) to $0.1319 before ARCA capitulated at $0.132.


    Bunch of doofuses over there.


    23 Aug 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Is doofus one of those special TA terms HTL?
    23 Aug 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • John: Yep! I learned it when it was applied to me many times in my (ignorant) youth!


    I no longer have youth as an excuse for my ignorance though - don't know how I'll handle it without that ready-made crutch! :-))


    23 Aug 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • A pictorial of the correct application of the term.

    23 Aug 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: LoL! Yep, yep, yep.


    23 Aug 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    My kids have applied CRS (can't remember stuff) to me as I got older, may be an acceptable replacement for doofus. ;-)
    23 Aug 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed: Sounds like an affliction that science can develop into a big grant program to find a cure! Brought to mind a news article about studying folks in their 90s to see why they have exceptional memory.


    Just read about it last evening.


    23 Aug 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • >Just read about it last evening


    :-) HTL good memory
    23 Aug 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane: <*chuckle*> Good catch. :-))


    23 Aug 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • I've been watching for an update on this program. Nothing yet so it appears late. A situation I can relate to.


    Alternative Motive Power Systems (AMPS) features Corvus Energy’s batteries in innovative hybrid locomotive


    "The testing phase for performance and emissions will be carried out in early 2013. When complete, the environmentally-friendly locomotive will be operated in the state of Texas where it will be used to move rail yard rolling stock by Railserve, Inc. A Marmon Group/Berkshire Hathaway Company. It is expected that the locomotive will be ready for the marketplace by spring 2013."

    23 Aug 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... The last thing I remember seeing about the Corvus Energy battery Hybrid "Leaf" was October of 2012. There are 32 Cummins powered RailServe "Leaf"'s out there but nothing about the AMPS version.


    With Norfolk Southern asked to evaluate a string of Corvus batteries and the lack of news, my guess would be that something didn't go as planned.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • All I know is that Matt Koenig, the former VP of Sales and Business Development for Corvus jumped ship in June of this year and ended up at Princeton Power.
    23 Aug 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich and John, Thanks for the info.


    As I indicated recently I found it rather odd that Corvus Energy indicated their units are self contained with protection circuits internal to each 48 V pack yet they had battery failures. This the result of a software issue in a system separate from the Corvus units. I am referring to the tug boat application on the left coast.
    23 Aug 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... I suspect that Corvus has trouble that the Axion PbC excels with. That of rapid, deep discharge and over current recharging. If the string can't be balanced quickly between these events then there is a problem with "hot spots" that will lead to cell failure and then battery failure. Too much concentrated heat.


    At least that is my understanding of the problem the "Green Goat" had and I believe ePower might have had with their AGMs. The difference between an energy and a power battery ... capacitance.
    23 Aug 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • I hope NSC sets them on to Axion
    23 Aug 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • >froggey77 ... I'm not at all sure but I think that would start to infringe on RJ Corman's "Green Goat" patent territory. Depends on how it is configured as either engine or battery centric. I'd be happy if RailServe was interested because Corman most definitely IS NOT.
    23 Aug 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Could be Corvus had a balancing issue.


    But the government still will not let it rest. Lead is bad and everything else is good in the battery biz.


    Have you seen any updates on how the Japanese are doing on their hybrid diesel/lithium ion efforts? Maybe they can paint one green for us!
    24 Aug 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... It has been several months so I'll go check up on it.
    24 Aug 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Thanks.


    Not looking to have you search around for it. Just know you have an interest in the industry and thought you might have found something I didn't which is not uncommon. :-I
    24 Aug 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • "hybrid rubber tired gantry crane lowers emissions by 80 percent and reduces fuel usage by 70 percent"
    I wonder how long the batteries last?


    Norfolk Southern depends on them.


    "Further, the McCalla terminal will be NS’ first intermodal facility to test a new type of battery-powered hybrid crane, intended to save fuel costs and reduce the railroad’s environmental impacts."


    I wonder if anyone has talked to Schneider Electric about using PbCs?
    24 Aug 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Both documents are incredibly vague about the type of batteries that are being tested in the McCalla RTGs. According to Wikipedia, the maximum gross weight of an intermodal shipping container is 66,139 pounds. Lifting that much weight 50 feet in the air would require about 1.25 kWh of energy.


    In the Q3-12 conference call Tom said "The remainder of the purchase order $13,850 was for purchase of additional PbC batteries for Norfolk Southern’s own use. This issuance is in keeping with their commitment to reduce emissions and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. They plan to do this by developing greener alternatives such as the 999."


    Based on the ~$400 per battery NS paid for the batteries that were earmarked for the NS 999, the additional battery purchase represents roughly 15 kWh of capacity and would be more than adequate for a 240-volt system. While we have no reason to be convinced that the McCalla RTGs are testing PbC battery packs, there are enough connectable dots to conclude that they might be.
    24 Aug 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • NS generally speaks of banks of batteries for the crane solution. As discussed, Axion does not build packs, only provides batteries in banks run together.


    Would a lithium ion solution for this type of application generally be a pack or a bank of batteries? Or is this a distinction without a difference?
    24 Aug 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • In its 2012 sustainability report NS said:


    "We purchased two of the hybrid rubber tire gantry cranes, known as RTGs, which are used to lift intermodal containers on and off rail cars. The hybrid cranes are powered by a bank of 108 batteries and are designed for continuous operation. During use, a low-horsepower diesel engine charges the batteries.


    We’ve been pleased with the results. Standard diesel RTG cranes we use consume 6 to 7 gallons of diesel per operating hour, compared with about 2 gallons an hour for the hybrid cranes. That reduces fuel costs and emissions.


    Our plan is to evaluate the performance of the two hybrid cranes over time and decide later whether to purchase more, based in part on return on investment. A consideration is that the hybrids are about 45 percent more expensive than standard diesel cranes.


    In addition to the low-emission hybrids, we purchased seven fuel-efficient RTG cranes in 2012 for use at other new Crescent Corridor terminals. Those cranes are outfitted with a power-on-demand feature that saves fuel by producing just enough horsepower needed to perform specific functions. On average, that saves about 2 gallons of fuel per operating hour for each crane."


    $13,,850 is not a big enough cost figure for 108 PbC batteries, but there's been lots of talk over the years about combining PbC and AGM batteries in a system that would cut costs and optimize performance at the same time. I don't know that we can get any closer to an answer.
    24 Aug 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Good observations. I've thought for a long time that Axion's PbC would become successful in mixed battery installations. Not exactly the norm when engineers design battery systems now but I'm hoping that changes. Axion should be able to compete with Maxwell in many applications.
    24 Aug 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • It seems that one of the first things a user wants to do when he gets a new device like the PbC is try mixing it with similar batteries. If you recall the Fleets and Fuels article a month or two back, you'll remember that it included a photo that drew a lot of discussion in the Concentrators because it showed a battery array that was half PbC and half AGM. On my last trip to Florence I learned that the battery box was just one of Jay's experiments. He had some spare AGMs lying around and some spare first generation PbCs, so he combined the two in series to see what the combination did to the performance parameters that interest him most. While Jay hasn't had the time he'd like to fool with his little experiment, the battery box is still sitting there with PbCs and AGMs cohabiting peacefully and holding a steady charge without the voltage drop he gets from a pure PbC array.
    24 Aug 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • " A consideration is that the hybrids are about 45 percent more expensive than standard diesel cranes."
    Could the additional expense be due to Li-ion batteries? Would a PbC and AGM combo banks be more cost effective?
    2 gallons an hour has to add up over time if the batteries have a long useful life. Plus, better energy recovery may drop the fuel usage even lower.
    24 Aug 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • IMO, it may be a bit early for the first cranes, but the combo of PbC & AGM makes sense and could speed adoption of AXPW. I think if TG would commit to it, these apps are much faster to gain sales in than auto and a big recurring order from NSC or PC's.


    I think the cranes would be a gimme as AXPW already works with NSC. Be icing if ePower can prove it works too as they will move faster with testing it.
    24 Aug 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • nothing is a gimme with behemoths like NSC. cranes look like a good application though.
    24 Aug 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • RTGs may be a good application for the PbC but they're not a big market for the PbC. Norfolk Southern buys RTGs six or seven at a time while it buys locomotives at 100 to 200 unit per year clip. It all goes back to carefully targeting your market for suitability and size.
    24 Aug 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • At this time in the company's life I would think "small potatoes" would be better than going hungry.
    If an interested company could buy what they needed, even in small quantities", and use them "as is", why would you not sell them?
    Now, certainly, if they need engineering assistance to make them work, that would be a different matter.
    In fact, with the stripping out of the Research & Development budget, having serious customers doing their own experiments makes sense.
    It would seriously concern me if every company that wanted to use the PbC, had to have hand holding by Axion to get them to work.
    25 Aug 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • This is a bit of a followup to an exchange I had yesterday with Mr I, and some of his perspectives [which I always appreciate reading]. Here’s one of his comments: “Big-picture is AXPW has spent the vast majority of its time below 17 cents since Konrad's article.” — I’m going to share my own “Big-picture” scenario, not to rebut Mr. I’s [or anybody else’s], but to explain some of my own data points that are relevant for me at this time, and that are influencing my own decision to hold my AXPW position.


    First is the dilution effect of the PIPE transactions. JP’s [credible to me] estimates are that it will eventually involve an issuance of an extra 47M to 67M shares. To illustrate my own thinking, and for the sake of convenience, I’m going to use a number roughly half-way between that estimate, and that’s exactly 50% greater than the 113M outstanding shares that preceded the PIPE deal [+56.5M shares]. This +56.5M shares would then represent 1/3 of a total of 169.5M outstanding shares. Using approximate pre-PIPE and post-PIPE pps numbers [if market capitalization pre-PIPE remained the same] would translate to:


    113 M shares x .27 = $30.51M Market Cap. — pre-PIPE
    169.5M shares x .18 = $30.51M Market Cap. — post-PIPE


    Using the assumption that market capitalization should remain steady, it seems [to me] that a pps of .18 would reflect the eventual TOTAL dilution effect. Since we’ve been consistently below .18, this indicates the full dilution effect has already been MORE than priced in. So the current pps weakness is not largely due to the dilution effect per se, but to the effects of so many PIPE shares flooding the market in such a short period of time.


    The other cause of weak pps seems to be the bailing out of a good number of Axionistas who do not want to ride out this process. This is quite understandable, but it also seems pretty clear that most of these Axionistas, perhaps similarly to Tom Konrad, are waiting for the opportunity to get back in at a lower pps. In other words, they’re not abandoning Axion, they’re just abandoning the deleterious shorter-term effects of so many shares flooding the market at one time.


    I was impressed late last week when the pps was up marginally on almost 5M shares in two days [Aug. 15th & 16th], bouncing off a .125 bottom, and then reaching as high as .165 this past week. Mr. I made the point that a bottom can be bounced off of several times, before it gets breached and breaks even lower. Very true of course; my own thinking however is that if 5M shares can get sopped up in two days, wouldn’t this indicate that just as many shares, and perhaps quite a few more, could get sopped up if we did go down to .10 as Mr I suggested we could. I readily acknowledge a .10 pps could happen, and from a traders’s perspective, something to be vigilant about.


    But I consider myself an investor, not a trader. Part of the reason for this is I’ve already incurred large capital losses in my non-qualified account [cost basis of .68], and to sell my shares would subject me to the effects of a wash sale []. If I sold out, I would have to wait at least thirty days to re-buy any sold shares if I wanted to maintain the deductibility of my capital losses. Unless I was willing to absorb the cost of several thousand dollars, it’s something I would not want to do. This would then leave me extremely vulnerable to any sudden pps appreciation. I’ve assumed other Axionistas are probably in a similar situation, having already incurred capital losses in the tens of thousands of dollars [or more].


    I fully understand the reluctance of some Axionistas to ride this PIPE thing out, and choose to sit on the sidelines until much clear positive developments occur. But this situation only seems to add to the tension of the coiled stock syndrome I believe Axion to be in. No news translates into continued pps weakness, but to me at a time that Axion’s market capitalization, on a fundamental basis, should be increasing, not decreasing. — And it’s not hard to imagine good news being announced and a sizable number of large market orders occurring within a short period of time.


    It’s often been mentioned on this board we need good news NOW, and I tend to agree with that assessment. But there’s also the somewhat countervailing view that as each day goes by, we’re that much closer to some very positive developments. The problem is, we just don’t when that will be, or how much news will be needed to offset the current pps weakness. — But TG’s comments on the last cc have me believing there will be enough news coming shorter-term that should provide a pretty good pps floor, and is why I don’t see us going much lower from here. As much as I’ve expressed concern about TG’s “failure to communicate” [which at times led me to question his credibility], I have to say I find myself trusting him on this one. We’ll see if that trust is well placed.


    As far as the current pps is concerned, I believe we’re scraping along the bottom, and that we’re unlikely to go much lower. From my perspective as a longer-term investor, it shouldn’t matter [although I’ll admit to cringing every time a new selling wave comes along]. But I continue to believe my investment will eventually get out from under the PIPE morass, and then reflect what I believe to be its true value. — About the only thing I can think of that would change my mind is if I began to believe we were looking at another PIPE deal some time next year [or ever]. I acknowledge other financing may become necessary, but I think the odds of another PIPE deal are low, and really don’t believe it’s in the cards. I could be wrong of course, and would respect other perspectives that may differ.


    I guess one more data point: I recently ran across a quote here on the APC from a couple years ago: — “He's [Bob Averill] also the only guy I've ever met that started three different technology manufacturing companies from scratch and sold each of them to a member of the Fortune 500.” — Bob invested an additional ~$750M into Axion this past year. He apparently has pretty extensive experience working in a small company environment, and likes what he’s seeing at Axion; and continues to bank on it. — Just one more reason I will as well.
    24 Aug 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • The only thing I'd add to the analysis is that a company's market cap after a financing round should always increase by the amount of new money shoved into the till. If Axion was worth $30 million with very little cash in the till, it should be worth at least $40 million with another $10 million of cash on hand.
    24 Aug 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • WIO, I appreciate your thoughts. I am glad you brought up Bob Averill. Has there been much discussion on his resignation from the BOD? I would sure like to hear some thoughts on this...


    PS You have a typo? you missed the K and hit the M ($750K)
    24 Aug 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • WiO


    color me stupid but I kinda like bouncing along at the bottom -- at least, for the short-run.


    Now, before I get harpooned for saying that, I am cognizant that many of the Axionistas have been holding on from purchasing at higher prices and have been waiting ( or is 'praying', the right word) for a turn-around for far longer than little ole me. I feel for you, I really do. So I'm not trying to make light of your situation.


    I am not a daily stock price watcher -- except when I'm accumulating. And I know JP differs with me regarding the epic Jobs -- but given the choice, I'd rather Axion live up to its potential than *anything* apple ever did. I honestly believe this is, while not 'new' technology - it is employed in a game-changing -- world-changing -- manner.


    So, I agree with you. But I'd like to poke a few more shares into the ole portfolio before Axion starts the greatest and most justified bull run in stock market history.


    Maybe I shouldn't be so selfish . . .
    24 Aug 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne,


    What you can do to avoid the 30 day wash sale wait period being naked with no position, is to reverse the trade order: instead of selling your .68 basis shares, waiting 30 days so you book the cap loss tax benefit, then buying them back, you can instead double down now your .68 basis shares for 30 days, then sell the original shares.


    So if you have 50,000 shares, buy another 50,000 at .13 for $6500. You'll then own 100,000. Wait 31 days and then sell your .68 basis shares, booking a loss and thus receiving a tax benefit. At that point you'll again have 50,000 (at a new basis of .13) and a capital loss cash tax benefit in your pocket, yet still own the same position in AXPW as originally.


    This way you won't have to worry about the 30 day period with no position subject to missing out on a potential price surge. (*Of course you'll be even more vulnerable though in the event of a price drop.*)


    So I guess at some price point if your conviction is high enough that the bottom is at hand, then this strategy would make sense. It especially does if you are sure you'll hold the 50,000 shares for life: then you got to book a hefty tax loss benefit but you'll *never* have to pay a capital gain on the shares purchased at the low .13 basis.
    24 Aug 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • JP, good point that the market cap should actually be 10K higher. Skews the current one even further. --- Tim, thanks for pointing out the typo [wouldn't Bob love it to be $750M however]. Hard to believe I used to do a fair amount of proof reading and copy editing.


    obieephyhm, RE: "I'd like to poke a few more shares into the ole portfolio before Axion starts the greatest and most justified bull run in stock market history..."


    Hey obie..., one of my all time favorite APC lines. LOL --- Yeah, if you need a little more time, I can live with that. How much more do you need, another week or so? :-)
    24 Aug 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • 10 million higher, I believe.
    24 Aug 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • It looks like I have a problem with those M's and K's :) I'll try to do better!
    24 Aug 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • WiO, one reason the price is lower than it should be is not only the 50-60 million shares issued on this pipe,, it is the increase of xxx million shares to be voted in at the next share holders meeting and the 10Q saying they will need capital in 2014.
    So the mkt is factoring this in and the pipers and others want no part of another issue like this one. Same way with last years buyers of the financing.
    These pipers are in a no lose situation short of bankruptcy ... so as long as axionistas buy, they gonna sell shares to you.
    Recurring sales is the only thing to stop the bleeding. A one timer won't do it.


    It sounds good to add to the value because of the cash, but AXPW gets most of it in tranches monthly as they need it , and past history shows they raise cash and a year later it's gone...but the extra shares still remain as a "manhole cover" on axionistas/shareholders necks.
    24 Aug 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • WiO once it is clear that another PIPE like financing is needed, which also means that the announcement of significant orders in the next 3 months turned out to be not that great as insinuated, the price will be so low that you can also keep the shares (unless you need the tax loss). I might also increase my position but definitely not because of lower prices but O N L Y because of real orders showing up.


    I also hope all shareholders place their votes on the ballot according to their satisfaction.
    25 Aug 2013, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • I am more in alignment with LT's reasoning.
    25 Aug 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • 08/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 900, MaxTrSz: 18033, Vol 281025, AvTrSz: 5302
    Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1389, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1337
    # Buys, Shares: 17 78792, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1348
    # Sells, Shares: 36 202233, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1333
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.57 (28.0% “buys”), DlyShts 35792 (12.74%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.70%


    Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 Wk cls VWAP $0.1348
    08/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
    08/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
    08/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1441, x 85%: $0.1225
    08/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1431, x 85%: $0.1216
    08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210


    Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920.3.
    Vol, in K, for above days: 1507.31, 1775.55, 928.88, 2029.33, 281.03.


    Volume fell through the floor and the price spread was extremely narrow. Classic signs of consolidation if we didn't seem to have some kind of exceptional activity every other day here. Volume, price, daily short sales, experimental calculations, ... if it's not one thing it's another. In the case of our volume, what's the floor? Pick one of my 10, 25, 50 or 100-day averages, in thousands: 1344, 1004, 812 and 595. We probably ought to throw these out as the last seven days included the highest since 2/12 and the fourth(?) highest since then along with some others that were quite high. Let's pick on the 200-day average of 445K as the floor. Yep, even with that we went down to a sub-floor.


    Daily short percentage continues to move up towards normal after hitting an extreme low. If it acts as before, in a couple days or so it ought to intersect a falling trend line I added a while back. Looks like it would be around the 20% area. It'll be interesting to see if it penetrates that line, and by how much, and what price and volume due for a short time thereafter regardless of penetration or rebound.


    I mentioned Thursday the daily short volume was “... much higher than yesterday (9.78 times yesterday's) but the percentage was low because of the high trading volume ... This leads me to think that we could see some price move up in a couple of days as the market-makers do what market-makers do”. With daily short sales acting as they are and VWAP flat (0.1337 and 0.1337) instead of down, I suspect a move of a penny or two is likely soon. Let's hope it is up.


    I think we might have lucked out in having the VWAP stay flat – two market-makers had folks with lots of testosterone, apparently, fighting for top (more appropriately “bottom”?) spot on the ask queue at one point. They dropped the asking price from $0.1346 to $0.1319 in six minutes as they leapfrogged each other in five changes that I caught. The ask side was a lot like yesterday – a constant struggle to get to the bottom price, for the most part. ARCA, ATDF and NITE were predominant today. PERT and BTIG tried before the price got too low. Then they mostly probably did what I do a lot – sit back and laugh?


    I noted yesterday “As we might expect when price gets low enough, the buy percentage improved from yesterday's 22.3%. ... [re sightings of bullishness] ... This will be visible when the buy percentage gets back into the 35%+ range consistently enough to move the near-term averages back towards the longer-term averages ...”. Considering the jostling on the ask for bottom price, we held up pretty well today with our 28% vs. yesterday's 30.6% “buys” - good enough to keep three of the four averages “flat”, with the 25-day being the only drop, from 40% to 39%. As long as the sellers tussle the buyers see no need to hit the asks hard.


    Note that in the inflection point calculations, we need a jaundiced eye because of the volatility caused bu the (mis)behavior of the underlying metrics.


    The original version has one-day changes that show strengthening in the near-term and reduced weakening in the longer-term but we haven't yet established a trend. However, the latest reading for change over five days shows strengthening across the board. Although it also has been volatile, there does seem to be more of a trend appearing and we might consider giving these indications some weight. But be aware that my newer calculation versions do not agree with this and I have been gaining more confidence in the newer version. The shorter-terms get some support from positive trending in the rate of change over the last few days, although that trend is still “lumpy”.


    The newer version, like the original, has one-day changes that show strengthening in the near-term and reduced weakening in the longer-term but we haven't yet established a trend. Unlike the original, whose latest readings for change over five days shows strengthening across the board, the newer one is showing strengthening only in the two shortest time-frames, reduced weakening in the 25-day calculation, and increased weakening in the longer time-frames. Generally the longer-time-frames have a trend of increasing weakness. The rate of change readings are generally positive, with a trend over the last few days in that direction, although the trend is “lumpy” just like the originals calculations' trends.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    24 Aug 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • You're not going to believe the next volume chart HTL. We went from 1,080,900 on the 10-day average to 1,344,230 on the 10-day average in a week. Now if we could just see some proof of the old adage that price follows volume I'd be a happy camper.
    24 Aug 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • John: I've been watching the average trade sizes too as there have been times that creeping up resulted in bullish price action. But over the last ten months the best it has been able to do is give a short-term bump and other times we continued down. I'm also remaining aware that the "standard" present size is now 5K vs. what used to be 2.5K.


    Our best performance during this 10-month window was the "grind up" starting last November. The rise in the 10-day average trade size began and the steady climb there produced two notable highs - the first during a plateau in price ~12/17 through early January followed by a continued price rise until mid-January, and the second as price left that mid-January peak and began the long descent into Satan's domain.


    What's notable is that volume remained *mostly* flat during that time with only two spikes before the peak price was hit - one ~12/17 and the other in the first week of January. Then the volume rapidly tapered off into the doldrums with a couple of lower highs in volume spikes into the end of January.


    It's hard to say during that time which led - price or volume, but 10-day average trade size sure did - indicating both coming rises and falls.


    Subsequent increases in the trade size have preceded both rises and falls in share price trends and seem to be independent of volume too - did it in both low and higher volume periods.


    From this I take away the 10-day average trade size may be another indicator of a change coming, but not it's direction. So ...


    Our current trend is up from a 5/24 low of 4,116 to the current 7,271 - near the 7,540 high of 1/18 just before we started a price trend down after hitting the peak of the "grind up".


    Keeping in mind the standard "present" (for clarity, as in "show", not "current") size change, this still could be portending a change in price trend. Since most of our volume is courtesy of you-know-who, I can't see volume making much difference. IMO this is a broken market and the usual indicators are suspect, which is why I currently forgo traditional TA and even view my experimental stuff with suspicion.


    Anyway, if the financiers are to support price rather than drive it to the $0.10 level and below, it looks like the stars are aligning for that. Since we've been in, essentially, a sideways move since the last $0.12xx low, the move in price could be either direction.


    There's still about 30% between $0.13 and $0.10, so ...


    25 Aug 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • Refrigerated Trucks to Keep Their Cool Thanks to Fuel Cell Technology


    Aug. 23, 2013 — Grocery merchants in Texas, California and New York will soon have ice cream, frozen foods and fresh produce delivered by tractor trailers whose refrigeration units are powered by fuel cells, a clean technology that makes energy silently and with dramatically reduced emissions.


    The fuel cells will do the work normally done by a small diesel engine, which keeps the cargo at the proper temperature while the trucks are making deliveries. Each of the four trucks will still be equipped with a main diesel engine that actually powers the truck.

    24 Aug 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • With $850,000 in DOE money and $850,000 in private matching funds the cost of the four fuel cell refrigerator vans will be about $1.7 million, or enough to buy a fleet of eight new refrigerator vans with new ePower tractors to pull them
    24 Aug 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • "Each fuel-cell powered refrigerated trailer will run for at least 400 hours at each demonstration site, delivering goods from the distribution centers to stores or other outlets."


    Hey, It costs big money to run these "long term" durability tests. <end snark>


    Isn't the sum higher yet? 650k USD x 4? And NYS gets 2 units so I can really breath easier!


    "Two leading fuel cell manufacturers, Massachusetts-based Nuvera and Albany, N.Y.-based Plug Power Inc., will each receive $650,000 from DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. The companies will provide matching funds and labor of their own. A PNNL team led by Brooks will oversee and evaluate the two-year program."
    24 Aug 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Hi JP,
    A retired securities lawyer agrees with you about "the car that can't be named" non Gaap numbers.
    25 Aug 2013, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • You got it, John!
    24 Aug 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker posted this question during the August 15 cc and never got an answer:


    "I am happy to hear TG stick his neck out on the Powercube sales prediction for this quarter. Does anyone know how much a standard powercube sells for, or how many batteries are in one? One or two million $$ worth of PC sales would come as a huge relief for me. Four of five million would be even better."


    I'm also interested if anybody has an answer. --- Thanks.
    25 Aug 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • WIO


    Here is a best guess from a non Tech type:
    A quote from the May 16 call.
    " I accompanied Vani on a sales call. To further discuss the amount of storage that will go into a 2013 project being developed by our strategic partner. The amount of storage will probably be several megawatts"
    say 5.
    (I'm guessing in that he thought this was a big one which is why he mentioned it's size.)


    The PCube that is on the Axion site has 7 racks (Maybe they could send some to NSC) :-)
    Each rack has 40 batteries.
    7 x 40 = 280


    The PowerCubeTM is a highly mobile energy storage system that can be configured to deliver up to 1 MW of power for 30 minutes or 100 KW of power for 10 hours.


    Note the maximum was 1/2 mWh
    Assuming the PCube at Axion can deliver 1/2 megawatt for half an hour you would need 2 for one mWh.
    (The specific PCube at Axion could be smaller but no larger than that)


    5 mWh would require 10
    10 x 280 batteries 2,800
    2,800 x $360 (IIRC about what we think NSC paid) = $1,008,000
    Call it a SWAG
    This ignores everything else such as the BMS and electronics services consulting and other stuff which might or might not be involved.


    As I said TG probably thought this was a large order which is why he mentioned the size...but I don't think it was a truly exceptional figure as then we would know who was the customer.


    This article came out in March and TG's comment was in May
    Viridity Energy to focus more on energy storage, especially in Texas


    The potential is there, the reality is still in question.
    25 Aug 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • "The PCube that is on the Axion site has 7 racks"
    Has this been updated with PbC 2.0 batteries? Would that make a noticeable difference in the performance. With the truck test results I assume it would make some difference but that is a different application.
    26 Aug 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Greentongue: extrapolating what I recall about the higher energy available, from a broader SOC range with lower internal resistance(?), I think it would only allow a longer discharge or higher discharge to a lower SOC before it had to recharge.


    IIRC, the increase was ~25%.


    Whether this would ever be needed in normal circumstances I can't say. Behind the meter if it was powering the customers premises & equipment during an outage or during a period when demand reduction was requested, it could be very beneficial I would think.


    In ignorance,
    26 Aug 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Greentongue, I don't know how the power cube at Axion is being utilized. Initially, if I recall correctly, only 20 % of what would be defined as a full power cube was being utilized to respond for testing purposes in the Viridity/PJM system. I don't know that we ever received any information that indicated that more of the potential capacity of this unit was integrated for this particular testing.


    I think they were also using some of the capabilities of this system to do other testing as well. If I am correct, and how this is might be accomplished, I cannot say. If someone else recalls something I don't I'd like to get a refresh signal.


    As for swapping out PbC V 2.0 for additional testing. I'm not sure this would make sense given the advantage of having durability data from V 1.x and I don't know if they have room in their overall testing facilities to do this for all the various applications they have and need to get data for. I'm sure hoping some of these are on test for obvious reasons.
    26 Aug 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: The only additional thing I recall is that they are now participating in the PJM/Viridty market five days a week.


    26 Aug 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, Thanks. Right, Initially they were limiting their participation for internal reasons. Also since the relationship was new I seem to recall the parties were feeling each other out along with waiting for the regulations to mature.
    26 Aug 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • I had forgotten this about the PC:


    "This Cube is the test tower, if you will; it’s our display model. The reason we made it over size, was so that people can get into the Cube and walk around and look at it and see exactly how it operates. This is a 40 foot container that we have here on site. Future containers will only be 20 feet and they’ll be able to contain the same amount of power. Future electronics will be separate from the Cube. They’re in our Cube right now, but for larger storage projects, we’ll have multiple pods, if you will, all connected to the power module."


    Copied from a 12/26/2011 article:

    26 Aug 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks much froggy for the concise breakdown. Gives me a LOT more to go on as the PC discussion continues.
    26 Aug 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • I'm sure I'm missing a lot here. The quick answer is, it all depends on what you are trying to do. It's too early in the market development to have off-the-shelf shrink-wrapped solutions.


    A few uses of power cubes:
    1. Temporary power surges. This reduces the need to keep generation capacity up and running, or provide time to get generators turned on. Perhaps with enough storage, the capacity can be left off. EG diesels on islands.
    2. Maintain power form intermittent sources. EG wind/solar.
    3. Provide power when demanded from the utility.
    4. Power buffer. A e-car charging station may not have the grid power available (without running more power lines). PBC can be used to charge more cars at once, and recover quickly when capacity is available.


    Some of the variables in each of these are
    -Instantaneous maximum power. Do you want to deliver 1000 or 1,000,000 watts.
    -Total energy to be stored. 1 Mega Watt Hour is 1 MW for 1 hour. Do you need more or less.
    -How fast can power me made available. If it's 30 minutes, PBC may not be the right thing. If it's 100ms, it's a candidate.
    25 Aug 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • John: Don't forget frequency regulation because the PC system responds in 250ms or less.


    25 Aug 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think anyone has a clear idea as to the payback potential of the Power Cube. I have asked similar questions 2 or 3 times now without any clear answer.


    Assuming that a PC costs you $1 million, where could you deploy it and what would be the best return on your investment?
    25 Aug 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Around the corner from your house connected to a solar panel.


    Island nations that burn diesel oil to generate electricity are tremendous potential markets for all types of renewable-linked storage because the spread between the cost of oil generated power and the cost of battery backed renewables is so great.
    25 Aug 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • In the Bermuda context there are no renewable projects of size. Most are residential. Limited available land, hurricanes and lack of funding are significant impediments.
    26 Aug 2013, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • I can't see that the calculations on payback would be straightforward or simple. An Island has to keep spinning reserves running. That means extra diesels are running at low load. How much these cost to run is not just the fuel, but the capital and maintenance cost associated with additional run time. How often does a diesel generator need major maintenance? Are the mechanic available locally, or do they have to fly in? How old are the generators, and are they paid for. If there is 20 years left on the bond, what happens if 20% are not longer needed. Are fewer people needed for monitoring and minor maintenance; if so how many and what are then paid? Will end user rates be adjusted to reflect the savings, and when?
    Perhaps adding a cube will reduce the need for a new generator, or idle an efficient unit.
    I'm sure there are more, but it is all very situation specific.
    25 Aug 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • The fact that these systems are somewhat complex and organizations are looking for packaged solutions makes me happy I heard TG mention joining a group of some form to participate in solutions for areas such as microgrids. I'm not sure they would get any apps without such a support structure. I wish we knew more about the group they joined.
    25 Aug 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Here is my favorite imagined use for Axion's PbC--as a replacement for or addition to Dean Kamen's North Dumpling island off-grid power system. He uses flooded LA batteries from Rolls that are described as deeply dischargeable, but have to be monitored and topped off regularly. I don't know if there's any issue with DCA that would merit combination with PbC's as a buffer for charging on sunny, windy days.


    Kamen does say that lighting is the largest part of his energy consumption, so it jibes with TG's statement about "off-grid lighting tied to renewables."


    So, that's my entirely speculative concatenation of wishful thinking, but it is Sunday night, after all.

    25 Aug 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • As a follow-up to WiO's question about PowerCubes and JohnM's notion about power buffers for eCar charging stations, we talk a lot about PbC's "Dynamic Charge Acceptance," which I translate in layman's terms to, "it can handle a lot of incoming juice fast."


    What about its output capacity? I seem to remember Dr. Ed B. saying that any LA battery can short circuit some huge amount in short order until it's depleted. Does this sort of massive drain dramatically shorten battery life (flooded LA, AGM, or PbC)?


    Are there limitations on output?
    25 Aug 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • Lead-acid has always been able to release its charge very quickly, although any battery gets less efficient if you discharge it too quickly. The problem was recharge times. Even though a short 1 hour discharge time wasn't an issue for lead acid, recharging a depleted battery took 8 to 12 hours if you wanted to avoid damage.


    When you think about applications like ePower's, you're not fully depleting the battery with each cycle. You're drawing 10% to 20% of the energy out of the string on a hill climb and feeding it back in on the descent. In that kind of duty cycle, charge and discharge rates that would drain the battery in 10 minutes or less are no problem.
    26 Aug 2013, 05:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » New concentrator available here.

    26 Aug 2013, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks APX
    26 Aug 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
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