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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    uno
    30 Aug 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Where is everybody? This NDA thing must have gone airborne viral...
    30 Aug 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Sorry 3B, can't disclose that.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Tres
    30 Aug 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    The Proposition 1B: Goods Movement Emission Reduction Program (GMERP)
    http://bit.ly/15Cgim3
    Does look like a wonderful opportunity for ePower to get a jump start.
    30 Aug 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    As I said in the last Concentrator the timelines in California are a bit too aggressive for ePower, but similar State programs like this one in New York are more attractive in terms of size, time constraints and geography.

     

    https://truck-vip.ny.gov
    30 Aug 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    From Powercubes for solar and wind to ePower for trucking, California looks like a "Land of Opportunity" for PbC batteries.
    30 Aug 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    When I was a younger man I paid close attention to my economic dating radius and classified attractive women outside that radius as GUD, or geographically undesirable. For now anyway, California is extremely GUD for Axion because of the 2,500 miles between Pittsburgh and LA.
    30 Aug 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I hear that there is such a thing as "video conferencing". Apparently you can conduct business via video rather than having to actually travel to meet your prospective client.

     

    Who knows; a business might even want to send a technical expert from one coast to another to have a good look at a prospective product/technology after having had a virtual meeting.

     

    I believe that in this day and age a client, especially one from California might just spring for the travel expenses to review a product that might allow them to conform to impending legislation rather than just sit back and be fined for non compliance.

     

    On the other hand I am frequently wrong according to my wife.
    30 Aug 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Given the number of days per month that engineers from Axion are in ePower's shop in Florence Kentucky I suspect that video conferences are not well suited to the kind of active systems development and integration work Axion has to do with customers who are building an entirely new class of products.

     

    California is not the only State in the Union.
    30 Aug 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Albert, you're a lucky man.

     

    My wife asserts I am almost always wrong. I guess I'm getting good at it.
    30 Aug 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    I agree that some technical staff must be assisting ePower and probably in their shop and of course someone must be in New Castle minding the shop.

     

    What do you suppose the Axion techies are actually doing for ePower?

     

    Even out here sitting on my rock in the Atlantic I have heard that there are a bunch of states in the US of A. Whenever I hear of pressing environmental concerns it generally involves Ca. If there are others that are even more aggressive in their environmental requirements that means there must be an even larger number of enterprises that are being pushed to come up with solutions in the near term. Do you suppose that Axion has a plan to seek out these desperate potential clients? Possibly an in-house show and tell?

     

    What will happen to enterprises that are not able to meet environmental performance requirements by the government mandated deadlines? Do they in fact face fines? Shutdowns? Pushing back or abandoning of deadlines?
    30 Aug 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    SWMBO is a corporate lawyer and so always qualifies her opinions until she has her boot at her adversary's throat.
    30 Aug 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    08/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 83 MinTrSz: 360 MaxTrSz: 20000 Vol 506358 AvTrSz: 6101
    Min. Pr: 0.1325 Max Pr: 0.1390 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1348
    # Buys, Shares: 31 180187 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1362
    # Sells, Shares: 51 321171 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1340
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1349
    Buy:Sell 1:1.78 (35.6% "buys"), DlyShts 76599 (15.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.85% For the near-term, it looks likes astute buyers are acting early in the day and astute sellers are waiting until late in the day to come in. How long this complete reversal of what had been “normal” behavior – early-day “strength” (actually, might be just “flatter”) and late-day weakness in price – will last is uncertain. I believe it may be the pattern until the next share issue. OTOH, maybe some of this is due to some recent publicity and might end soon or not at all. No way to tell.

     

    Anyway, today was similar to yesterday, but stronger, in the trading action. Notice the absence, again, of severe “late-day weakness” and the tendency of VWAP to increase throughout the day, rather than erratically decline slowly after early improvement. Note that, again (not mentioned yesterday), long periods of intransigence by the sellers and buyers gave us (sometimes) good spreads on the bid/ask and periods of no, or low, volume. But today's volume was much improved, up 275% over yesterday's, so it looks like folks are aware of the behavior change.

     

    Here's a time breakdown.
    09:31-10:29: 058500 shares, 11.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1334, 18.8% buys
    10:36-10:59: 107201 shares, 21.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 29.9% buys
    11:01-12:08: 043300 shares, 08.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 0.0% buys
    12:15-12:38: 017636 shares, 03.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1359, 94.3% buys
    12:39-13:08: 120263 shares, 23.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, 53.2% buys
    13:09-14:04: 094188 shares, 18.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1358, 60.1% buys
    15:09-15:39: 029470 shares, 05.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 0.0% buys
    15:50-15:58: 035800 shares, 07.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1362, 0.0% buys

     

    Yesterday, as mentioned, not quite as strong, but decent.
    09:31-10:16: 024500 shares, 18.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 40.8% buys
    10:03-11:09: 024200 shares, 17.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1313, 39.3% buys
    10:58-12:06: 023767 shares, 17.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 2.1% buys
    11:53-12:48: 032450 shares, 24.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 52.4% buys
    13:09-13:39: 014600 shares, 10.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1326, 0.0% buys
    14:07-14:44: 025400 shares, 18.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 59.1% buys
    15:08-15:50: 013850 shares, 10.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 87.0% buys

     

    I'm thinking yesterday's “Today looked like the start of the “hold price up a few days so we have someone to sell to” period ...” was on target. Today there was again less jostling on the asks, although what jostling there was involved the usual MMs: ARCA, ATDF and NITE. Additional support appeared on the bid side in the form of larger bids I noted in some comments in the concentrator. Around 14:00 EDT ATDF bid $0.1335x100K and at 15:06 BNCH trumped that with a $0.135x100K bid.

     

    Stepping around the asks to hit the bids increased a bit today, likely due to higher prices on the bids being attractive to those folks (interesting, if so, because we're looking at VWAP increase of 24/100ths of a penny being “attractive”?!). This is evidenced by the weaker buy percentage of 35.6% vs. yesterday's 43.4%. I still like anything in the 35%+ range as it's in the normal range and provides a decent starting point for any surge in the metric. If we see some consistency in the mid-3x% range or higher for a few days we should see VWAP hold up well and maybe even appreciate a bit.

     

    Daily short sales percentage continues an up-leg which I anticipate is part of a near-term net-sideways trend. With the price action we've been seeing, I might end up being wrong on this one – might just climb and end with a spike. Anyway, here's a few days' percentages: 24.05% , 06.17% , 08.15% and 15.13%.

     

    10-day average trade size continued to settle from its recent climb – essentially flat at 7004. The predicted price move, while not “hefty” yet, seems underway. I'll be adding this to the mix of short-term things I watch to try and detect any likely change in price behavior.

     

    Some of my inflection point stuff is showing nice numbers too. But the volatility keeps me wary for now.

     

    For our downtrodden and broken stock, a relatively stellar day.

     

    Week ending values for the 85% price tracking have been omitted here to keep things briefer in the concentrator.

     

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203
    08/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1404, x 85%: $0.1193
    08/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1394, x 85%: $0.1185
    08/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1386, x 85%: $0.1178

     

    Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76, 443.37, 134.97, 506.36.

     

    Regarding the inflection point calculations, my “jaundiced eye” caveat still applies.

     

    Yesterday I said “... they are now in a state where I would watch for “The Pattern” on the charts in normal times. In our current environment I don't expect them to develop. I expect we'll see a short-term price bump, at best, before the next ton of shares get put into the hands of the “financiers”. If the posited support of price by the “financiers” appears, I could be wrong about all that”.

     

    That's still my thinking. As expected, my original version has the early part of the pattern formation appearing with the 5 and 10-day periods beginning to rotate into a parabolic move up. For the pattern to complete several of the longer-term must also do that and, ultimately, we see on my chart a “gaggle” all going near-vertical in concert. This last part is what I doubt will appear unless I'm completely wrong – always likely – about the financiers' coming behavior.

     

    Anyway, for now, the 5-day period started its turn on 8/23 in advance of a further dip and recovery in price ($0.1337, $0.1316, $0.1305, $0.1324 and $0.1348) and the 10-day followed on 8/27. But the original versions are a bit “flaky” and we can't assign much weight at this early stage of the pattern.

     

    Regardless, the original metrics' one-day changes have only the five-day period with substantial continued improvement. The other periods are marginally weaker but for one with marginal improvement. This should support our “no confidence” vote for now. The 5-day changes however show the trend as it really is for now. The 5-day period shows substantially reducing strength (note that is not “weakness” - the number is still positive, just less so) while the 10-day shows continuing substantially increasing strength. The remaining periods have mostly marginal increases in strength and one marginal decrease. The rates of change, except for the 200-day period, all continue to strengthen, mostly by noticeable amounts. If this last set of metrics continues its current behavior I'll certainly be wrong about the pattern completion failing as we go forward.

     

    The newer version also has a positive slant, but not decidedly so. Four periods are indicating marginal strengthening and two marginal reduction in strength. All are still in positive territory though. This makes three consecutive days with five of the six periods positive each day and a general trend of strengthening in the numbers. One more day of general improvement and I think we can call a trend. The change over five days has all six periods continuing to go more positive and the improvements from the prior readings are again strong. If I wasn't influenced by knowledge of the “financiers” and the marginality of the one-day changes I might think our “price bump” had a real future. The rates of change over the five days for all periods continue strengthening. This is the third consecutive positive reading for the 5-day period and the second for the others.

     

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, and inflection points omitted here.
    30 Aug 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Is this 8-29?
    30 Aug 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Pascquale: OOPS! Did it again. That was, indeed, 8/29.

     

    Thanks for the catch - I can at least update my instablog and maybe no one else will notice! :-P

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Apologies but I feel I just have to "double post" this comment which is a follow-up to my comment yesterday about IR/PR shortcomings, see
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    ...
    Some Success!!
    So it seems someone in Axion-IR-land reads the axionpower.com Contact form and / or the Concentrators after all! Axionpower.com has been amended to remove "a development stage company" and the Company Overview now says "Axion Power International, Inc. engages in the research and development of a technology for the production of lead-acid-carbon energy storage devices.". And on allencaron.com the presentation linked is now 2013, not 2011.
    I wonder if they will sort out the rubbish articles on http://bit.ly/187qtOp, I only mentioned the former errors on the axionpower Contact form, maybe I should also mention the articles there.

     

    Not that I've got a reply to my Contact form submission, but as I started " Dear Sirs, I know you are loathe to communicate with retail investors, but I hope you will take note of the following comments …" perhaps they assumed I didn't expect one.
    30 Aug 2013, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    DaveT You are the MAN !
    30 Aug 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL, do your magic at the end of the day and again on Tuesday. In the past ten years or so, based totally on empirical memory, (talk about sketchy evidence ! ) I have concluded that traders don't like holding stuff over the weekend, and Labor Day Weekend intuitively may be the worst. Further, this is the last Friday the "B" team will be in charge of the desk.

     

    So my prediction for today is that we will sag along with many other small companies. We'll then perk up again on Tuesday. There it is and I can't make counter claims later. Anyway, this is a good day, and maybe the last good day to nibble without fear. It may also be the last good day to jump on this train even as it is now leaving the station.

     

    Just for fun I'm telling myself +7% from close today to close Tuesday, regardless of today's direction. No reason particularly except I like the sound of sev-en. Only two syllable integer twixt zero and ten. This is going to be a good buyers' day.

     

    Besides, the sun is out after a two week absence and I can cut grass. Six lovely hours of heaven on a tractor.
    30 Aug 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    VW,
    Now that you said out loud, enough of us will try and play it to make some gas money that the effect is nullified. Ok, now that I have said that, it's back on and I'll be able to fill up my tank.
    30 Aug 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    VW: I had considered addressing the long weekend but felt that might be a non-factor if we had momentum running, which it looks like it might be.

     

    Regardless, I had mentally prepared to see some of the momentum fall away today JIC.

     

    But I'm also suspecting that a lot of the activity is not "traders", but "investors" and the minions of the "financiers". If that's the case, we might see unexpected behavior on long weekends, short-weekends, intra-day, ... and all periods in between.

     

    For instance, MAXM puts in a token appearance today at $0.12. What's up with that?

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Vdub,

     

    "maybe the last good day to nibble without fear."

     

    "It may also be the last good day to jump on this train even as it is now leaving the station."

     

    Thx for the laughs! Haven't heard those boiler room phrases in a long, long time.

     

    Many of us are most curious to see what the PIPErs do with their 8.5 million new shares next week.
    30 Aug 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    VW: looks like you got it right! Late-day weakness appeared just like "the old days" (eh, last week and beyond).

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Valley

     

    Now that is the type of quality predictions based on solid research I

     

    Makes perfect sense given the obvious market imperfections in pricing our little jewel

     

    Thank you - think I will nibble with a low bid
    30 Aug 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    SWMBO is in town meeting with friends so I can have an hour's dalliance with the board. Lunch donchaknow.

     

    I have a whole cupboard of high quality precision research tools I can lend you if required. Since I now see the price in fact sagging a bit for lunch I entered a price with lots of 3's in it. eg: $ 0.13333 is only half as evil as $ 0.16666. We'll see if it fills. :>)

     

    Besides, whereas with the bigger number you get six appeal (not to be scoffed at) with three you think of the pigs and that reminds you of barbecue and this is the weekend for that. Kewel, huh?

     

    No need to send money. There is no charge.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    VW: Looks like you might have gotten filled.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yep. Kewel. That will about do me for the rest of the year. :>)
    31 Aug 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Famous last words in this neighborhood.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    dlmca: with buy:sell 2.21:1 right now and recent history of price higher late in the day (after all, "financiers" want to create an appearance of upward momentum ...) ...

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    I like the soccer ball paint job on the one vehicle pictured.

     

    Electric cars might get cheaper thanks to fiber-optic sensors

     

    http://bit.ly/15qkpxr
    30 Aug 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I loved this part:

     

    "Based on computer simulations, the agency believes that better data—combined with improved battery control software and computer models of batteries—would make it possible to safely drive cells right up to their limits. Since automakers could get more out of each battery cell, they could make their battery packs smaller without sacrificing performance."

     

    It may be a great way to minimize pack size but it's also a great way to trash the batteries because electroi-chemistry doesn't like being pushed to its limits.
    30 Aug 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Seems the key to government research monies is to way over promise and under deliver. They are perfecting that characteristic.
    30 Aug 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    By the way, where does "battery control software" get its power from?
    Doesn't that equate to more electrical load? Thinner cell walls but more sensors?
    30 Aug 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Cali. rulez.

     

    Battery Backup Has An Incentive In California

     

    "Now customers of PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E can save $1.80/W for energy storage, plus an additional 20% of the incentive when installing products from a California supplier. There are of course limitations and exclusions of this program – customers must be grid-tied to one of the eligible utilities, must use new equipment installed by a California-licensed contractor, and cannot be connected to a non-renewable generator, such as a standard diesel generator. But for that, they are only required to pay a minimum of 40% of the project cost!"

     

    http://bit.ly/1a6eIgP
    30 Aug 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Mr I,

     

    Kinda reminds you of 1984-85 doesn't it? I loved those lines. Usually they talked about boats leaving the dock, but I'm a RR guy afterall.

     

    I too am curious over the plumbers. JP has worked up his theory and I have worked up mine. I guess I sorta decided that the plumbers maximize their profits by letting things rise beginning next Tuesday. If they continue to flood and punish they risk good news shredding their potential.

     

    If TG is reading the tea leaves correctly and we receive good news during the next three months, I expect we will do very well. The plumbers will want to be along for the ride, slowly unloading as they go. My own hypothesis has picked out either the 20th (Friday) of next month or maybe the 24th (Tuesday) for giggly news. My favorite is the 20th because it gives folks the weekend to percolate. Besides the sound of "20th" is a superior sound to "24th".

     

    Inasmuch as you obviously enjoy boilerplate stuff, then you will remember and enjoy this obvious irony: In those early bull years there was a guy named Joseph Granville. He would move markets violently with his predictions, yes?? What a blast he was to listen to!

     

    It is my hope that my favorite Granville today will move Axion stock prices up violently before year end. All the ducks I think I see lining up tell me he has a very good chance of doing so. I'm still leaning toward the Boston Whaler. :>)
    30 Aug 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    RE: "...will move Axion stock prices up violently before year end. All the ducks I think I see lining up tell me he has a very good chance of doing so."

     

    VW, Alphameister pointed out earlier this year that the pps has always been above .60 in every year since inception. So I'm holding out hope for .60 before the end of the year. IIRC, Iindelco, using a nice little graphic a couple months ago, felt I should hope for $1.00. --- I'll take either. LOL
    30 Aug 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I stand in awe of your analytic, near scientific, investing catalysts thesis in Axion. We've been approaching this all wrong for a long time because we've been watching paint & mud. The idea of using brain power, such as you do, is so foreign to the Axionista community.

     

    Thanks. It is refreshing to explore new techniques.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    VW: The last couple of years we get action suggestive of several things, all undetermined. Tax selling is one thesis. But that's only rational because price was always swirling down the toilet bowl.

     

    Maybe this year will be different.

     

    Anyway, when January rolled around price would recover some.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Vdub,

     

    From a sales standpoint, I appreciated those lines. From an ethical standpoint, I'm glad that most of the people that used them have either stopped, dropped or rolled into an early grave. The bad apples were most harmful to the retail fin'l mgmt industry. Good riddance.

     

    My own guess as to what the PIPErs will do is that they'll continue to dump for at least another round or two. At 10 cents and below things get very, very interesting for them. Will the PC news be big and sticky enough? I doubt it. I'm guessing that will be yet another sucker's rally opportunity for the New Big Uglies to dump into, like the recent bumps to 19.5 and then 16.5.

     

    But only time will tell. At least no one will have to wait long to see if the PIPErs have changed their New Big Ugly behavior. The next two weeks should say a lot.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The monthly volume ramp has been terribly impressive to those who watch such thing.

     

    31-May-13 – 7,804,912
    30-Jun-13 – 12,573,043
    31-Jul-13 – 15,277,529
    31-Aug-13 – 19,721,408

     

    It gets even more impressive that the total annual volume for 2009 and 2010 were 7,176,200 shares and 22,016,900 shares, respectively. I would respectively submit that the PIPErs have already done their level best to crush the market and failed pretty miserably. With the support we've seen at this range I have a hard time believing it will fall any further unless there's sticky bad news.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Increasing volume wasn't enough to hold back the Old Big Ugly distribution and so far it hasn't been enough for the New Big Uglies' distribution, either.

     

    It has certainly help mitigate the fall, but it's been a dramatic fall all the same. A 50% decline since the New Deal alone.

     

    With the benefit of plenty of hindsight, to me it's clear that the best AXPW investment summary ever written here, by numerous authors over a long time, has been, "great battery but who will be the owners?"
    30 Aug 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The big price decline was months ago. It has been holding steady in the current range since late-June without further deterioration. As of today, the 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages are $.14, $.14, $.16 and $.18.

     

    The market is already absorbing the worst the PIPErs can throw at it. Unless something happens to make the buyers stay away in droves I see no reason to believe the price will erode further.

     

    There were 113 million shares outstanding before the PIPE. At current price levels it will take about 67 million shares to clear the pipes. Since those 67 million shares are flowing from the hands of the PIPErs into the hands of the people who already accumulated the bulk of the 113 million shares, the owners will be the same, although they'll have a little more invested.
    30 Aug 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Only 1/4 of the PIPE stock has been issued yet the stk price is already down 50%. That is a terrible ratio.

     

    The PIPErs are just the latest in a long, sorry line of Big Uglies, and they're only getting started.
    31 Aug 2013, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The stock price got pounded into the dirt in May and June in anticipation of the upcoming PIPE share issuances. Since the end of June the 10-day VWMA has ranged between $0.17 and $0.14.

     

    The actual PIPE share issuance dates and amounts were:

     

    ~5.0 million shares on June 7th
    ~3.5 million shares on July 8th
    ~9.4 million shares on August 2nd

     

    There was immense damage from the first 5 million shares to hit the market. The damage from the next 13 million shares was barely noticeable because the market had adjusted to the new normal.

     

    The market has been absorbing the worst the PIPErs can throw at it for two months and maintaining a stable trading range of $.14 to $.17. Unless something very bad happens to make the buyers stay away in droves I see no reason to believe the price will erode further.
    31 Aug 2013, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    DR, Thanks for the kind words. A precisionist such as myself appreciates recognition for my development of valence theory dynamics applied to stock investment. 'ahem.

     

    Would love to shilly-shally on this topic, but here it is Saturday and the grass is so tall I was unable to finish yesterday. Estimate I have two more hours of PP (prostate pounding) action on the tractor that I must finish this a.m. More rain on the way they say.

     

    Then I'll rush out to the rain gauge and watch for a deluge. As HTL has suggested, we are now watching for paint to wet. :>)
    31 Aug 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Mr I, I'll agree they were bad eggs. But I guess everybody kind of knew they were evil. And yes, good riddance. And yes they destroyed thousands of lives.

     

    That said, The "bad apples" who were the most destructive to financial markets and destroyed tens of millions of lives still are with us. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Merrill Lynch, etc. are riding high and happy with government protection.

     

    Your point is well taken, but I have not forgotten who the real destroyers are. They just wear nicer suits.
    31 Aug 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    VW, You forgot Uncle Sam. When you have an entity that is responsible for oversight and they don't do their job who is more responsible? BTW, Nothing has changed so ore is on the way.
    31 Aug 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Vdub, I was focusing on brokers. Thank goodness many retail clients have changed to fee-based advisors from transaction-based brokers. Vastly better alignment of goals.

     

    The change from willy-nilly chasing of the hot dot of the moment to a disciplined asset allocation approach has been wonderful on many levels.

     

    I was fortunate to have helped an early leader in the industry's change, then later, to have been such an Investment Advisor myself. Funny, when I see what looks like bad investment logic here, I often have to bite my fingertips to keep from responding. Better to let folks make mistakes and learn than to intervene.
    31 Aug 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • PhishDBob
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Quick FYI,

     

    I received an RFQ for blast doors (5 psi rating) for 300 Bio-Diesel storage facilities capable of allowing ingress and egress of Class 8 rigs. It is to be built over the next 3 years by a private group. When I have more information I can share I will.

     

    Back to work,

     

    Phish

     

    P.S. I see no challenges to ePower or Axion but I will leave that judgment to the smarter contributors, I will stick to doors.
    30 Aug 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    OT: Is the globe warming? http://bit.ly/1a6fPgl

     

    Is -15 Celsius (~ 8 F I think) cold enough to make PbCs attractive relative to FLAB/AGMs?
    30 Aug 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    D-inv
    -15C would be about +3 or 4 F
    30 Aug 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    If I remember correctly:

     

    212 F (Boiling Point of Water) - 32 F (Freezing Point) = 180 degrees
    100 C (Boiling Point of Water) - 0 C (Freezing Point) = 100 degrees

     

    180 F divided by 100C = 1.8 degrees F for every 1 degree C

     

    -15 C x 1.8 = -27 F [from 32 F]

     

    32 F - 27 F = 5 F

     

    P.S. One of my rare opportunities to get technical, although I'm not 100% convinced I got it right. :-)
    30 Aug 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    WiO: IIRC, it's a subtract 32 divide and multiply by 5 to go F -> C. Reverse the other way.

     

    So (F-32)*5/9 = C

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    " divide and multiply by 5"

     

    s/b

     

    " divide by 9 and multiply by 5"

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    Or just use an on-line converter.
    30 Aug 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Drich: that ain't no fun! :-)) And I'm all too aware of "use it or lose it" seems to apply to gray matter as well. :-((

     

    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • gezeke
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Old news. NEW article about ePower/PbC.

     

    http://bit.ly/14KurOd
    30 Aug 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Great Catch, gezeke !

     

    Thanks for posting that. I am now one of Malia's greatest fans !
    31 Aug 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, interesting and nice catch.

     

    I sent two notes to the Pittsburgh Businesstimes and Pitt Post-Gazette about a month ago. The Post wrote about Axion several years ago (I found it in Axion's website history) and I thought that it would be useful for a follow up. My Father-in-law only buys local companies, many times from writeups in the paper and thought it was a way to add new investors.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Other equipment besides cranes run in cycles.

     

    Most welders are sold with a 20% or 40% duty cycle rating. I wonder if adding a PbC would extend the duty cycle?

     

    What about large scale mixers? Could level loading their electrical draw be cost effective?
    30 Aug 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    “What will happen to enterprises that are not able to meet environmental performance requirements by the government mandated deadlines?”

     

    “For now anyway, California is extremely GUD for Axion because of the 2,500 miles between Pittsburgh and LA.”

     

    Smog is a major problem on both the southern and northern side of the I5 Grapevine. With increasingly stringent air quality standard’s, some CA counties are paying significant financial penalties for exceeding air quality targets & are very open to clean energy businesses. Based on a personal conversation with a truck driving neighbor, owner/operators will not be permitted to operate trucks in CA that exceed emission standards.

     

    Another reason CA may be a good fit, despite the GUD distance of 2,500 miles, is when I travel over the Grapevine, a regular pit stop is a TravelCenters of America LLC (TA) facility, located just north of the Grapevine. TA, as of August 12, 2013, operated & franchised approximately 500 travel centers in 42 states and in Canada. Beside restaurant & fast food establishments, the company operates truck repair & maintenance facilities, as well as providing a number of business services specifically targeted to the truck driver. It seem to me that there is a good opportunity for a strategic business relationships with TA & ePower/Axion for the Hybrid Drive Trains & TA & ???/Axion for the use of PbC batteries for anti-idling purposes, which TG has been careful to separate, when he talks about the Hybrid Drive Train alliance with ePower.

     

    Which leads to the question: Since National and International regulations now prohibit that idling, & Axion PbC batteries need a partner to have a product to support the solution. Could that alliance & resulting anti-idling product sales be the much discussed one promised by TG by next quarter?

     

    John, I think dating parameters, limited by economics, is pretty standard, specially when the payoff is increasing the size of one’s heart. But trying to attract business, that will increase the size of one’s wallet, while still limited by economics, are no longer limited by distance with products like skype, webinar etc. So even if a sale or lease of a prototype is not possible within the CA Prop 1b time limitations, planting the seed, making contact with Govt officials who run these programs, & interviewing prospective clients and gathering marketing intelligence, would certainly fall under the responsibility of Sales Directors of both e-Power & Axion.
    30 Aug 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Hey WTB! You OK?

     

    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    EV Arc is the World’s First Mobile (?) Solar Electric Vehicle Charger
    http://bit.ly/18rkd2O

     

    “The 2.3kW Solar Array generates approximately 16kWhrs per day, which are stored, ready for use in the 22kWhr battery storage. Clean solar electrical generation is enhanced by Envisions proprietary and patent pending tracking solution – EnvisionTrak that causes the solar array to follow the sun as it moves across the sky. An EV ARC will fully charge one typical EV per day or offer 1/4 charges to multiple EVs in city environments where users will park in them while having lunch, running errands or taking a meeting.”

     

    9' by 18' It only ways 10,000#
    I think it's a new option that goes in the Frunk
    All you have to do is pick it up and put it there.
    30 Aug 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    A couple of notes from Nissan

     

    JP might like this first one
    Nissan Starts Selling Green Credits, Puts Pressure On Tesla Profits And EV Industry Itself

     

    <
    Outside of Nissan, Tesla has been the only automaker with an excess of these (given they only make electric vehicles), and have been selling them to other carmakers (most notably Honda) that require ‘help’ in meeting CARB compliance. In fact, all of Tesla’s profit in 2013 ($41+ million – ex-items) can be attributed to selling green credits.
    Now Nissan is in the game. And unlike any other major OEM, they have credits to burn in a big way.
    “We’ve got carbon credits to sell, and we’re selling them. California ZEV credits,” Executive Vice President Andy Palmer told reporters and Automotive News in Irvine, California this week.>

     

    <Tesla would like to see the credit continue to stay high in value and to help their bottom line, whereas Nissan may actually be led to sell the credits in the future at a discount - not caring at all about the money, but the greater effect of selling those credits has on the industry in general.
    As of now, Nissan can fund the ZEV credit demand for the entire industry, so if Nissan offers the credits to their potential competitors (the likes of Honda, Toyota, Ford, Chrysler, etc.) at a discount, they essentially put an incentive out to the other automakers to NOT make electric vehicles that they DON’T WANT to build.
    Essentially, any automaker Nissan does sell their credits to, will NOT be competing with the Japanese company’s electric vehicle offerings in any meaningful way – or at the very least, the easy availability of credits would curtail the other OEMs from selling their EVs cheaper/at a loss to make their numbers and eroding the perceived value of EVs to the general public, if they (other OEMs) know Nissan has credits on the table and ready to go.>

     

    That could be interesting.

     

    Nissan Confirms Addition Of Two New Plug-In Vehicles To Future Lineup – Inductive Charging For All
    http://bit.ly/1duB7ET

     

    Not exactly Nissan
    Carlos Ghosn’s Right Hand Man Carlos Tavares Quits Renault
    http://bit.ly/1duB7Vi

     

    This would be impressive
    Nissan Unveils Autonomous Drive LEAF; Promises Tech Will be Available to Consumers by 2020 at a Realistic Price (w/video)
    http://bit.ly/1duB7Vm
    30 Aug 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    OK, Who bought it? Fess up!

     

    http://bit.ly/176YRXf
    30 Aug 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    I have to confess... DRich did it. :))
    30 Aug 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >froggey77 ... Sorry, it's not me. I have my own.
    30 Aug 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, lol. DRich will tape it to another loco so we can see what it looks like moving!
    -
    DRich, Stored in the family hope chest, I hope. Don't put it in the sock drawer. Not a good place to store things you want to appreciate I'm told. ;-(
    30 Aug 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... If people here want to get a little rise from a picture of NS 999 ... check these links out. I found them via Flickr and note the "Day Taken" stamp.

     

    It's outside ... in the broad daylight
    http://bit.ly/1crdHgN

     

    Look behind 6517 ... it is still in the WIP area
    http://bit.ly/1crdHx2

     

    Now ... the question is ... Did it move on its own power? Possibly.
    31 Aug 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich, Unfortunately no way to know if it moved on its own or if the Rail King has been dragging a shell around. Fingers crossed.
    31 Aug 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I hope it is not back to storage but notice that it is only 4 tracks & about 50 yards from the shop storage spot it keep out of the rain & snow for almost a year. I'd feel better if it was closer to the turntable or a very, very long way away from it ... like on an active track.
    31 Aug 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Was the NS999 ever assigned a functional location where it had a work assignment? Or was it, for it's limited life, only a show piece?

     

    Might the area where the NS999 is located be a charge point? I'd expect this to be peripheral to the central turn table area.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Yes, it, the original, had and assigned yard and I've no idea where that might be. I've never been able to find what might be a charge station from the recent aerial photos of the Altoona Yards. There are several working yards within a short distance.

     

    If it were me doing the field trials, I think I'd drag it down to Roanoke both to be closer to the technical guys and intermodal yards on the Crescent.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    DRich: If this is, indeed, the first signs of life, VW may have called it with his 9/1 estimate. A PR follow-up in the next week would confirm his crystal ball prowess.

     

    *That* would be really, really, nice.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Agree with keeping it close to the technical guys for some time. Along with that I'd expect that operational guys along with the industrial engineers came up with duty cycle figures for the types of locations where this technology would apply. This in an effort to ensure sufficient capacity along with maximizing the opportunity to charge.

     

    Do you suspect they have the necessary charging power conversion systems in the unit so all they need is a plug with say 6xx VAC @ xyz amps or would you see this being part of the charge station? Maybe keeping the charge points simple allows for more charge points in the yard for opportunity charging? I'm not familiar with the work path in a rail yard obviously.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Nearly every yard has a refueling rack. A primary job. It would make sense to put a charge point in the vicinity of the racks. There is often a light maintenance shack and engine dispatch tracks away from the main cars & cargo activity.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... We heard, read or just dreamed it up out of our own frustration that NS999 rolling would be a Summer of '13 event. There are only 21 days left.
    31 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... To your question about where the NS999 is located be a charge point might be, here is a 2009 picture at Altoona Waterloo Yard ( I believe) that is my most likely guess.

     

    http://bit.ly/148yupk
    31 Aug 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich, That looks possible given the large xformer next to the outbuilding and what looks like a cooling unit on the side of the building.

     

    I'm glad Froggey and I picked on you a little. You were holding some interesting photos complemented with your industry knowledge. I thank you for both.
    31 Aug 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I've paper thin feelings and I just couldn't take the pressure.
    31 Aug 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    The question is,

     

    Is the 999 pushing the other engine, or is it being pulled around ?

     

    Either way it's outta the shop and that is a good thing. I will bet it has batteries in it too.
    31 Aug 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Yes, I would expect that given your background, what little I know of it, you have been sheltered heavily. I know how easy working in industry can be. The next best thing to being a college professor with tenure. ;-)
    31 Aug 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    DR,
    I just flashed on your avatar, is that a porcupine on the edge of a dumpster?
    31 Aug 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Stilldazed ... Yes, it is.
    31 Aug 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Cool picture, I could make a joke about broken stock prices and our pets dumpster diving, but I think the real story is probably more interesting.;-)
    31 Aug 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    Htl, No way does NS do a PR until the 999 is thoroughly tested in the yard. Their super cautious approach won't end now all of the sudden. And no one else will be allowed to do a PR.
    31 Aug 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Thanks for sharing the photo of NS999.
    31 Aug 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    ARPA-E Dishes Out $36M to Fund Robust and Affordable Next-Generation Battery Technology
    http://bit.ly/1dYMJyM

     

    <n total, ARPA-E is funding22 projects (PDF) that it believes will “accelerate widespread EV adoption by dramatically improving driving range and reliability, and by providing low-cost, low-carbon alternatives to today’s vehicles.”

     

    ARPA-E Deputy Director, Cheryl Martin, issued this statement on RANGE:

     

    “The breadth and volume of technology approaches embodied in the RANGE projects demonstrate ARPA-E’s commitment to transformational innovation. The success of RANGE battery technologies will reshape our thinking on EV storage and help reduce U.S. dependence on foreign energy sources, decrease emissions and help maintain our technological lead in R&D.”>

     

    PDF Press Release is here
    http://1.usa.gov/1dYMIL9

     

    The Triple 5 Next-Generation Chevy Volt: 50 MPG, 5 Seats, 50 Miles Electric Range
    http://bit.ly/1dYMILf

     

    Next-Gen Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid to Get More Electric Range, 55 MPG Combined and Wireless Charging Capability
    http://bit.ly/1dYMJ1v
    Toyota hasn't specified a range yet. They presently have a range of 11 mi electric It seems they may be going for 5 mi or so more.

     

    Both companies apparently have requests for more electric range.
    So far as I know the Prius Plug in is selling at full price (The Volt is discounted) but as of last month the Prius PHEV was a few below the previous years sales.

     

    While people want more range will they pay for it?
    30 Aug 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "While people want more range will they pay for it? "

     

    Doesn't matter - this government is committed and secure in the belief, with OPM, that by-passing market-forces and if it forces-market all will be well in the end.

     

    Just like with all those other "green" things they did that resulted in BK and, in some cases, Chinese ownership of American taxpayer-funded R&D and P&E (and a few odd salaries along the way to pay folks to play cards, etc.).

     

    They just don't care a whit about realities. Only he dreams survive, in many cases, along with OPM resources to chase the dreams.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    But HTL, That can't be. It's is completely contrary to what the Wimp In Chief has told us:
    "... It's about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It's about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it's inconvenient, especially when it's inconvenient..."
    http://bit.ly/15pl0Gq
    31 Aug 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Did I miss this from 8/29? "Axion Power Announces ePower Electric Hybrid 18-Wheeler, Powered By Axion PbC Batteries, Set For Display And Test Drives At Indiana Green Fleet Conference
    Axion's Sr. Vice President Vani Dantam To Address Conference"

     

    We knew it was on the agenda, but I don't recall this PR detailing what Vani will discuss.

     

    Apologies if it was posted already.

     

    http://bit.ly/148vrx6

     

    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Apologies to those of you who have sent me private emails

     

    I just opened them this week not realizing how the system works

     

    Appreciate the comments and thoughts

     

    I responded to one today who had suggest BMW is in the vapor and thought I would share my response more broadly - as follows:

     

    Personally think that BMW volumes are few years off - but the relationship with major battery manufacturer for a vehicle application should be in place in less than a year - perhaps before year end 2013

     

    You do not sign a deal as a vehicle goes into production. You sign it before they get set to spend serious money looking ahead to future years models and applications
    31 Aug 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    I don't expect much money this year or next when signed, but I'd expect fees for technical support and maybe even licensing. Not much, but enough to help against the cash burn.
    31 Aug 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Ranma ... I'd accept the future revenue visibility as a great deal. There is no way Axion can avoid going back to the market for cash. I'd prefer it to be for Capex and with a higher share price.
    31 Aug 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    DRich

     

    Just what capital expenditures do you feel are needed?

     

    They have capacity for the foreseeable future on the lines they have and the demand that might follow at least medium term

     

    In the meantime they are focused on low hanging fruit = cash soonest and no Capex required. TG has been clear on this - or at least as clear as he ever gets

     

    If a significant ramp up is needed - it will be because of profitable business. If I were the CFO I would look to term debt the needs - be a lousy CFO if I did not

     

    But then being a fairly good CFO can get you on the Board

     

    31 Aug 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    08/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 88, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 669393, AvTrSz: 7607
    Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1394, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1343,
    # Buys, Shares: 34 213700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1359,
    # Sells, Shares: 52 443693, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1336,
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1338,
    Buy:Sell 1:2.08 (31.9%), DlyShts 55450 (8.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.50%

     

    Yesterday I noted a near-term trend of astute buyers acting early in the day and astute sellers waiting until late-day to Sell. I should've kept my yap shut because today they reverted to form. In fact, it was worse form as “late-day weakness” started early in the day. My question of “How long this complete reversal of what had been “normal” behavior ... will last is uncertain ...”. I had surmised until the next share issue. Valleywood mentioned in a comment that we might see weakness today because of the long weekend. I replied I thought the desire to keep strength showing until the new shares were in the hands of the financiers would prevent that. He was right and I was wrong, at least for today.

     

    Today, again, wasn't a horrible day, relatively speaking. Our buy percentage didn't drop all that much and neither did the VWAP. The last six VWAPS, including today: $0.1337, $0.1337, $0.1316, $0.1305, $0.1324, $0.1348 and $0.1343. So maybe today was just a normal “blip” in a (weak?) trend up. Unfortunately, the volume suggests not.

     

    I don't know if today ended the “Today looked like the start of the “hold price up a few days so we have someone to sell to” period ...” action. Jostling on the asks was from the start of the day, including 09:39-09:52 where I caught 6 consecutive steps down (and one no change – just someone adding to best ask quantity) from $0.1388 to $0.1373 (my, how they fight for a couple 100ths of those pennies). Most were ATDF and BTIG, with a little ARCA for some added spice. Out of 23 peeks at changes in the ask, only three were ask price increases (and most likely just hidden higher asks getting “uncovered”), one was flat and the rest were decreases on the ask. The increased asks did not last long either. Most were superseded in 10-20 minutes by a lower ask.

     

    After the initial battle, the rest of the day had ARCA, CDEL, NITE and ETRF market-makers joined in battle. ATDF retired to the hill top with a cool one to watch the action I guess.

     

    For the second consecutive day, stepping around the asks to hit the bids increased a bit. This resulted in the weaker buy percentage of 31.9% vs. yesterday's 35.6% and Wednesday's 43.4%. I was hoping to remain in the 35%+ range. We're still above 30%, so there's hope this was just folks in a rush to get out before the long weekend as they fear a price drop next week when the new shares appear in the market. I sure hope they aren't smarter than the rest of us!

     

    Daily short sales percentage continues it's vacillation in what I believe is a near-term somewhat sideways move that eventually morphs into a spike up. Here's a few days' percentages: 24.05% , 06.17% , 08.15%, 15.13% and 08.28%. The spike up will be associated with a change in price trend, either the same day or the following I think.

     

    10-day average trade size continued to settle from its recent climb, now down to 6,196. This very small price bump may have been the change in trend this metric seems to signal, but I can't bet on it. In a fit of myopia, I had forgotten about the coming long weekend. Things like that cast doubt onto all the technical indicators. I guess the coming short week might tell the tale, with new shares being issued.

     

    My inflection point stuff is no longer showing nice numbers. But the volatility still keeps me wary for now.

     

    Week ending values for the 85% price tracking have been omitted here to keep things briefer in the concentrator.

     

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
    08/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1415, x 85%: $0.1203
    08/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1404, x 85%: $0.1193
    08/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1394, x 85%: $0.1185
    08/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1386, x 85%: $0.1178
    08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171

     

    Vol, in K, for above days: 530.76, 443.37, 134.97, 506.36, 669.39.

     

    Regarding the inflection point calculations, my “jaundiced eye” caveat still applies.

     

    As I said yesterday, regarding the formation of “The Pattern” on the charts in normal times that would signal a price move. “In our current environment I don't expect them to develop. I expect we'll see a short-term price bump, at best, before the next ton of shares get put into the hands of the “financiers”. If the posited support of price by the “financiers” appears, I could be wrong about all that”.

     

    That's still my thinking. Today was sufficient to cause the original version to begin a rotation from up to down on four of the six periods. So far the change is weak. The rate of change over five days is weaker in all six periods. I didn't expect a break in the pattern formation beginning to appear so soon though. <*sigh*>

     

    The newer inflection point calculations, which are a bit less “flaky”, had indicated this small price bump up was coming several days back. Today it is as negative as the original version with 4 weaker readings in the one-day changes and the changes over five days. But the rate of change over five days only has one weaker reading yet. I think this suggests that the momentum up has slowed, but we can't say we have a trend reversal underway yet.

     

    That may be an optimistic assessment though.

     

    There is a difference in what the original and newer versions suggest. The original version often “reacts” too(?) quickly, but may be short-term correct. The newer version may not react quite as quickly but I think has a better track record in giving fewer “false” signals. We'll have to wait and see which is correct here.

     

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, and inflection points here are omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >dimca ... Suppose expansion in the EU is required middle to end of next year with sales to begin 4Q of 2015. I'd do it with debt also but that has not been the MO to date and I believe debt will avoided into the future if at all possible.
    31 Aug 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure most of you have heard this one but it served as a reminder to me after today's Axionista-festival and reading the latest lambasts aimed at JP for his truth-telling about . . . you know . . . those frequently labelled as Acolytes of Elon . . .

     

    Allegedly from B. Russell: "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."
    31 Aug 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Obieephyhm: a great quote. The thought crossed my mind that if the nouns were switched the results wouldn't much change. This evidenced, I think, by history where some intelligent, but cocksure, folks had horrible results and some (relatively) stupid people that were doubtful had decent results.

     

    Don't ask me for citations - just thoughts over a lifetime of doubt.

     

    I guess I'm grinning at that.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    New September intra-day statistics blog up. Shortened header, chopped some of the older statistics to reduce load times.

     

    No substantive change in the header - mostly updated list of active MMs and commentary about what I think is PIPE-related activity.

     

    Charts and daily commentary will be updated 9/3.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    31 Aug 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    More sightings of the elusive 999.
    Our baby appears in the second to the last picture. Is that red in the cab a person? Probably just wishful thinking. That also must be her clear at the top of the last picture near the roundtable.

     

    http://bit.ly/LdzZWW
    1 Sep 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    I think it's the Red Power Ranger but I'm not perfectly sure as it might be an impersonator.

     

    Anyway, Nice catch Metro. I looked at the picture the other day and missed it entirely. Details details.

     

    Back to therapy for some more ink blot testing.

     

    http://bit.ly/1e41LDm
    1 Sep 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Since phrases like "second to last" confuse me, I thought I'd note that the photo caption is "Recently completed NS 6926 2nd at the backshop today."

     

    Maybe the red in the cab is a balloon bouquet?
    1 Sep 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Metro: I blew the pic up to maximum on two different screens with different resolutions. My best guess as to the red is an orange insulated water jug such as might be seen at construction sites and such. But even with the max zoom, can't be sure.

     

    If it is a water jug, that's a good sign too - wouldn't be needed if most of the time was in the shop and would be needed if it was going to be outside *working*, or being worked on, I think.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Sep 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Metro: That is her near the roundtable. Building roof matches that in the other pic and, although I can't read it in the second pic, the building number patch (for L28) is visible in the same relative location as the first pic.

     

    Speaking of which, I wonder what that open cabinet-like thingy is nearer the foreground in front of the yellow loco. Lots of unidentifiable goodies visible through the open panel. I wonder if that's the charging station.

     

    If so, rotating back to pic two, the last spur off the roundtable seems a rational location to bring a switcher back at end of shift for a quick topping charge.

     

    OMG! Great new stuff to run wildly speculative on with no supporting evidence, news, PR, numbers, ...

     

    Let the fun commence! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Sep 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Did we see this pic here before? Dated 8/28/13

     

    http://bit.ly/14j6uKq
    1 Sep 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1dytkWH

     

    Are we saying that in the picture name ".../jbs3/130820_29.jpg" the 130820 means 2013/08/20 picture #29??

     

    If this is the case, shouldn't we be able to find others from the many Trainspotters?
    1 Sep 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, Yes. DRich shared it yesterday in this concentrator. So lots of discussion about how it moved there. Under its own power or with help? Anyway, You can look back and read fer yerself. :-l
    1 Sep 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    HTL, when I blow it up it becomes a red version of this guy: http://bit.ly/1dyuCRF
    1 Sep 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue, I'm guessing that is the filing system they are using.

     

    In the near future a short clip with the 999 moving unassisted would be nice. Then we wouldn't have to speculate!
    1 Sep 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    DaStar: LoL! :-))

     

    What swayed to me thinking of a water cooler is a sliver of white near the top of it. Orange body white cover is what I've seen most frequently.

     

    My resolution didn't go high enough to break it down as far as yours. But I only used the viewer in the FF browser - I could probably do more with one of the graphics viewers.

     

    Looking in HP MediaSmart, I see image capture date of 8/20/13 - so we know the photo is recent.

     

    I loaded GIMP onto my Windows machine, which has a higher resolution monitor and zoomed 800%. That's too deep and is similar to what you saw but more solid in the core. 400% not much better. Since the pic is only 300x300ppi, not surprising I guess.

     

    But I can see there's no white at the top, so it's likely not a water cooler.

     

    OK. One speculation shot down in flames! :-))

     

    What's the next one we can drum up?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Sep 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Sunday morning musings are pleasant in the quiet. Got to thinking about our short/medium term. Obviously there are only the three possibilities; price rise, price fall, or price stagnation.

     

    Stagnation requires only that nothing much happens, to include news of a sale with no clear suggestion of significant repeat business. Let's hope the announcement of this month ( wishin' & dreamin' ) offers more. To my mind even an NS order of a few thousand wouldn't elevate my pulse rate because RRs move so
    S-L-O-W-L-Y until they commit.

     

    Mr I has opined ( correct me if I'm misreading your position ) that with the increasing number of shares the plumbers get to play with (roughly 3x their to-date quantity) that we could quite easily see another 50% hit from here. I share the possibility of his speculation but have arrived at a different place. Nevertheless, his notion is sound and could cause us (most assuredly me) great anxiety.
    JP is standing on the platform ( JP, as always, jump on this if I misinterpret ) that the volume indicators of the past four months indicate that buyers have held the plumbers at bay and that the plumbers are unlikely to have the oomph necessary to compress the price significantly.

     

    Rather than go through the risk of speculation on others' ideas I'll go ahead and offer my own, which is that we will see pps rise significantly before year end. In that vein, I suspect we will hear sticky good news some time this month, but surely before EOY. I am not altogether confident the news will be enough sticky side up to enjoy JP's "clear path" to profitability but I prefer to believe so because it is more pleasant to believe than not.

     

    Whether good news falls this year or not, disclosure demands that I admit I have a factually baseless strong sense the long grind is over sometime between Tuesday and 15 May 2014. I suspect we will get an announcement keeping alive the $.60 series. Consider:

     

    1) The plumbers eventually run out of marbles to play

     

    2) The investors on this board are a pretty tough lot. And there is, I think a large group of lurkers who match our interest. They may not be blabbermouths as we are, but they watch ---- and buy.

     

    3) We have three customers, one of which continues to spend money, albeit small amounts. Nevertheless, ePower continues to move forward.

     

    4) NS has clearly stated that our battery is bad to the bone.

     

    5) PSU has confirmed NS is correct.

     

    6) Axion has no debt. This last is so compelling that I marvel that I so often forget it during the dark hours of doubt.

     

    I believe in the science. I believe in the product. Enough folks have actually tried and tested the product to prove to their satisfaction to-date that others will/have notice(d). We have a growing customer in which I have faith.

     

    The plumbers have done great damage (50% + - ) but so far recently, the price is holding. SOMEBODY is buying the shares. We? Who knows. I no longer have powder sufficient to stem the tide, maybe the rest of you do. I hope so. But clearly <somebody> thinks Axion is worth buying. They might be nitwits, but I think not. Either that or I confess to being a nitwit myself and I'm not ready for that. Yet.

     

    At some point, meaningful fundamental analysis demands quantitative evidence. We have none. But that said, lacking mathematical proof, two conditions must be met for micro-caps to survive the meat grinder and thrive. First, all during the bloodshed in the grinder, the story must endure and if possible, grow stronger. Second, the company, (nodding to JP) lacking a clear path, must be debt-free. Axion meets both those conditions.

     

    Lacking fundamental proof only one condition must be met for a share price to remain above water. The stock must have believers. I'm a believer. I doubt everything and know nothing. Still, I'm holding.

     

    I welcome all critics. Fire away.

     

    Meanwhile, I'm waiting for Mystery Man #4 I feel certain is just over the horizon.
    1 Sep 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    A funny thing about transition stage companies is they need a clear path to rapid revenue growth, which is very different from a clear path to profitability. If you look at my favorite whipping boy it's path to profit is highly speculative by the time you factor in lease accounting. But the market has taken a late 2014 launch over version 3.0 and a someday launch of version 4.0 and used those massive revenue expectations to justify the silliest stock price I've ever seen.

     

    I love the story-stock time of "revenues are going to grow like crazy for the next few years and we'll be spending so fast that we won't see profits for a while." Life gets much tougher when the analysts are predicting both revenue and profit for the next quarter and the slightest miss is grounds for punishment.
    1 Sep 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    I'm still voting for return of and on with little else from the new big uglies.

     

    The ball is in TG's court to deliver as always. He's been swinging for the fences and now in theory some think he's chanting solid singles boys -n- girls. Claims to see brightly colored shirts standing on bases in the not to distant future. The home teams colors that is. Oh, and visions of sugar plums. Hopefully it's not just delirium from the last financial raise.
    1 Sep 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    I have an expression that I'm fond of:

     

    "Same problem, different box."

     

    It arose during the latter years of my investing and counseling my own SWMBO through various corporate crises. People often build themselves up with an expectation of 'solving' a problem yet fail to realize that the 'solution' itself opens up more but different problems.

     

    That's not to say I disagree with Valley (nice write-up, btw). I'd like it to happen now (one one hand) and I'd like to go on accumulating stock (otoh). I see the current stock price environment as 'temporarily depressed' -- in this sense, 'temporary' is opportunity, for me.

     

    For those who already have as many toes in the water as they care to, 'temporary' represents continued agony over whether to stay in the pool or maybe visit the sauna for awhile. Or, they're just focused on the 'depressed' part and that's bad enough by itself.

     

    Which is what JP's point is (as it appears to me) . . . tomorrow you may get your wish in the form of announcements, orders, and a rising price -- and there we'll all go from 'temporarily depressed' to 'temporarily euphoric'. Yet a new set of problems will arise, more scrutiny will be paid by the heretofore uncaring and uninformed press (or worse, financial analysts who will all have opinions but no understanding of the science and technology at work). And we'll likely be pining over the new set of problems as much as the old when our expectations didn't match the reality handed us.

     

    To paraphrase an alleged Charles Barkley quote: Sometimes you just gotta relax and let the talent work.
    1 Sep 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    I would say,

     

    SSDD...

     

    (Sysiphisean Search for Due Diligence)
    1 Sep 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    SM,
    Ouch, I had to look him up. I couldn't remember if he was the guy pushing a boulder or the guy with a lamp (the guy pushing a boulder).
    1 Sep 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Which is second cousin to the Sysiphisean Search for Cost Effective EV Batteries.
    1 Sep 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    I'm expecting a recovery by end of year. Except the magnitude of recovery depends on what TG delivers. IMO, NS and PC news will take us back into the 20's. BMW and BMW only will take us to 50+ and eventually a buck in 2014. If we don't get BMW news then a lot depends on the big uglies.
    1 Sep 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: Could be sooner. EOQ "window dressing" may have affect on our so-called "fananciers"? If they have quarterly book closings, reports of profits and losses to investors or principals, etc. this EOQ would be a good time to "support" price since they have been issued a $**tload of shares @ <= $0.15 (current new issue would be ~$0.1171 as of Friday) and they can show nice profits on the shares sold and those still in their possession if price is bumped up a wee bit ...

     

    I don't know if the conditions apply to them, but unless they have zero shares held, which seems less than likely, they can show great gains on the long positions by buying relatively few shares to drive the price up.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Sep 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    Great point. And not to mention, adding to the free gains they had by selling off their shares.

     

    I wonder if the PIPE structure actually had that in mind. A 3 month first installment gives them plenty of ammo to drive the price down, then September comes and with the 30th the end of Q2.

     

    If one looks like the SPY weekly charts it can be seen that Oct 1 usually has a pick up.
    1 Sep 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Investment funds typically use mark to market accounting for their quarterly reporting. So there's a definite incentive to have a high price at the end of September. When you couple that reality with the fact that they only make big money, as opposed to lunch money, if the price goes up and stays up, I still expect the selling pressure to throttle back on a go forward basis. It didn't happen at the end of July like I hoped it would, but I see no sense at all in playing price depression games from this point forward.
    1 Sep 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    John, would you say this PIPE structure (3 month gap with true ups, etc.) is typical of these deals or was this one specifically structured to allow price depression games? Would it be fair to say that the management and board should have saw this coming? Thanks.
    1 Sep 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I haven't dug into enough PIPE documents to have a reasonable basis for an opinion. The documents for Axion's PIPE were extraordinarily well-crafted by Greenberg Truarig, one of the top law firms in the country. It's clear to me that the deal structure and documentation has been carefully refined over the course of many many deals. If I had to guess I'd say that every deal has a gap period, although the width of the gap really depends on the luck of the draw – e.g. when the SEC gets around to issuing an order of effectiveness.
    1 Sep 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,

     

    As much as I would like to believe BMW news is imminent, previous real life experience taught us not to be overly optimistic :(

     

    I would personally say that we can go above the 30s on news of sustained orders for Powercubes, or a big shipment for Over the Road Locomotive testing at NSC...
    2 Sep 2013, 06:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: I believe just the news that NS-999 is actually at work will do that. Why? Because with the up-front research and bench testing done so far, the chance that it would fail to perform as expected approaches zero.

     

    This *almost* guarantees future orders for at least the switchers by (NSC) as I don't see anything on the horizon ATM that would compete effectively, in aggregate of all important parameters, until many years of additional testing (and maybe a big breakthrough of some kind?) of the competing technologies.

     

    The PR would make "the market" aware and, since it's theoretically forward-looking, it would begin pricing (AXPW) on both the nearer-term anticipated revenues for switchers as well as the longer-term possible OTR orders.

     

    Add in the *perceived* reduction in risk associated with the NS-999 "event" and you have a powerful, IMO, motivator for investment by *many* that may have been holding back as well as new investors that never heard of (AXPW) before.

     

    Think of the effect if Konrad had another article that said "Now I feel good about it", or some such.

     

    The risk to my scenario, as I see it, is that the PIPErs have so many GD shares in hand ready to take profits that price can't rise to what should be its natural level for an event like this.

     

    Makes me almost hope they *are* relentlessly selling and hold zero shares when the "event" happens so that folks with longer time horizons and better knowledge have those shares in hand.

     

    Fat chance?

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Sep 2013, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    HTL, that was well said. As you know that's what happened last time...the stock was ready to go on the NS first order....then the damn financiers sold hard into it.

     

    Now, we have axionista's overweight and there will be profit taking from them too....they been burnt too many times.

     

    It all puts pressure on and limits what should have been a strong sustained move up and maybe with an overshoot.
    2 Sep 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    The 999 should be nearing some movement on it's own power, but after the first disaster....don't be surprised if they nurse it around for awhile just to get a feel for things and take it easy before they really see what it will do.
    Another meltdown is not wanted by NSC. For whatever malfunction.
    2 Sep 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    In my experience stockholders of small companies who whine and complain about being way overweight when the price is in the dumps buy more when the price begins to improve and attitudes shift from psychotic negativity to cautious optimism then unbridled optimism and finally psychotic optimism before retreating and heading in the other direction.

     

    In other worlds investors who hold through the tough times don't take their profits and run the instant the market starts to support their original investment thesis any more than irrational longs take the money and run at the first sign of weakness.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    LT, you have raised the most fun question of all, IMHO. Please expand.

     

    re: Axionista overweight. I suspect you're right. Any firm movement up and this board (let's pretend they're the only Axionistas or at least represent all of them well) will sell to ensure some profits. So I agree your position on this point is well founded.
    Certainly I have my eyes on a nice little fishing boat.

     

    But. In the dark of night my dark-side rules. Maybe at the news of truly sticky side up news, not great news, just solid sunshine, I get greedy and not only continue to hold, but start averaging up. Dunno what I'd do. On this board are many and varied personalities. More than a few are hiding in the weeds. Sandbagging. Some folks here I believe have more ponies than they pretend. Will they sell, hold, or buy from less certain Axionistas.

     

    I am certain the day is coming and reasonably confident the day is close (whatever in the hell that means) when we can watch this unfold. To me it is the most fascinating idea to ponder. Inasmuch as pondering is all we can do right now . . . . . . Are you positive you would sell? Others??

     

    Do any others have their ears on ? ? ? LT has asked the best question of the year IMO. What say you all? Greed, prudence, or fear?
    2 Sep 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    So, John, you're calling me out here. You contend my dark side will rule, yes?

     

    I'm such a greedy SOB, I suspect you might be right. Mama would prefer I sell enuff to play with house money. I'm not tellin' her nuthin' tho.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I've been to this rodeo before and I've never seen investors who held their ground through the dark days exit the game when things started to get interesting. Them that want to leave already have. The core is strong as a garlic milkshake. There will undoubtedly be some profit taking along the way, particularly when the market price approaches 4x an investor's average cost, but the profit taking is rarely in the form of a complete exit and the only thing that ever causes a price to move up is a surplus of demand. Holders who sell judiciously into a rising market are never noticed.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    VW: for me the designated trading blocks get gone when I think I've made a decent profit on them and a small pullback seems in the near-term future.

     

    But they are only a percentage of my position. Anyway, when the following next leg up starts, I add both core and trading blocks again.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Sep 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Most are so overweight, they can sell half their holdings and still hit the grand slam and buy the "new fishing boat"

     

    In the last cc, TG stated they had over 5000 shareholder. That equates into an average of 25,000 shares / investor +/- With another 67Millions shares coming out, and more if any more capital is raised, AXPW must either double their shareholder base or axionistas have to double down again. IMO, this is also a risk.

     

    AXPW is an interesting story, but there is still no guarantee of their success or failure. In theory, the stock price can trade at a penny/share ( 0.01) and the company still keep the doors open and sell some product, but that doesn't make it a profitable investment.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    An average of 25,000 shares works out to an average value of $3,300 at current prices. It will take a hell of a run for folks to be in a position to sell half and buy a fishing boat.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    I agree with every word of what you said. You're dead on IMO. That said, I still feed my dark side every so often.

     

    But what will you do?
    2 Sep 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    This is one of those times when I'd love to pull a big wad of cash out of my mattress and go on a buying spree. Unfortunately I don't have a big wad of cash in my mattress. In fact, if it cost a nickel to poop I'd have to vomit.

     

    So I'll just watch with rapt attention and try to contain my envy.
    2 Sep 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    JP, it's possible that the fishing boat folks might own a few more shares than 25,000. But even at that, 25K at say $4 will pay taxes, and buy a dandy little Whaler. And yes, that's a hell of a run. I expect it tho. . . . .

     

    Still interested in LT's projected action. He's posed the spectacular question which suggests he knows what he'd do.

     

    LT, you sellin?? Or staying greedy?
    2 Sep 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Well, as a nano-investor, I have 70k shares (>25K), that are not going anywhere for quite some time. I'm likely not alone.
    2 Sep 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    JP, I suspect Thee & me are in a similar place. No wads anywhere available.

     

    OTOH, the ground upon which we stand may be different.

     

    Either way, both of us will be in good spirits when we are at $4, methinks. There only so many steaks one can eat. :>)
    2 Sep 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    gt, God loveth an honest man. Good for you. And you I think are the heart of the group holding up the world.
    2 Sep 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    VW...in case you don't know, I have already sold long ago. I have zero shares of AXPW.
    As to buying back in, it is totally a show me the money. I have patience now. IF, they deliver, sure I will buy back in. Not as heavy as I once was, because I do not share the same enthusiasm as to the size of AXPW's mkt. as some do here. I think they are a niche business with limited markets of size and new tech will displace them.
    The other thing is market cap. If, when they issue more shares or approach the 300-350 million share mark, IMO it limits share price because I don't see a billion $$$ company here.

     

    I will say that the 25,000 shares I posted as an average is just that...average size. I have every reason to believe most axionistas own 100,000 or more. Some multiple xx of 100,000 shares. They are the ones who I feel confident will take some off the table on news and stock price run up.

     

    With all this said, sure it's tempting to take a small stake at .12-.13 and then double down at less than .10 but I choose to wait. I want proof of recurring revenue, and to see who actually owns this company in the end or at least to see if it's axionistas or if they get sold out. I have no faith and trust in management and that will never change.
    I have other investments that have and are yielding better returns with less risk.
    Back to my cave now.
    2 Sep 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    LT, fair enough and well said.
    2 Sep 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1417) | Send Message
     
    "In fact, if it cost a nickel to poop I'd have to vomit."

     

    That is one of the all time great blues lines, along with "I'm so broke I can't even spend the night" or some such line that escapes me now.
    2 Sep 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    Sell?!?! After waiting all this time and finally getting confirmation of a correct thesis, I'd ride this puppy for all I could get. What, do you think you'll immediately find another amazing growth stock to get into? This can be a billion dollar company which means one day the stock could get up to 10 dollars. If you think holding is tough, wait til you have to hold tight while the stock is going through the roof! What I'm going to do is trade a portion, like HTL, and that will keep me satisfied that I capture some of the peaks and valleys. But I have a core I will never dip into until the final blow off top. We get to watch TSLA to see how that develops.
    2 Sep 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    Also we shouldn't underestimate the power of sideline money. There are those who buy on news. Heck, I myself have reserved more cash for certain events. If AXPW becomes a hot stock then we don't even have to worry about extra PIPEr shares. It'd be traded in a single day.

     

    One of the more interested trading experiences I had this year was trading Fannie Mae stock. You are talking about 100 million plus shares of a 1-2 dollar stock being traded on the OTC exchange. Traffic was so high that it took 10 minutes to fill a market order! It was great though because then the market tended to steamroll in one direction then the other. And you can spot the turns by the posted bid/asks.
    2 Sep 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    All your scenarios make perfect sense IMO.

     

    If the NS999 roll out is successful, I don't see either what would prevent NS from ordering a lot more batteries for their other yard switchers. Once the market starts speculating on the number of of locomotives to be "electrified using industry partner Axion Power", then it's off to the races!

     

    Time will tell...

     

    A
    2 Sep 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, Your enthusiasm is an example of what I meant, go re-check your math.

     

    A billion $$ company = $10 ????? I think your off by quite a bit
    2 Sep 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    Yes it's slightly less than 10, more like 8-9 at current share issuance, if you take literally that I expect Axion to be worth exactly one billion. But when you say billion dollar company you usually means it's above one billion. And please let's not get into how many shares will be out by then. That's not the point. Nobody knows what the market will give. All you can do is react, and not go by some magic number to sell at.
    2 Sep 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    LT: "... no faith and trust in management and that will never change".

     

    As a wise person once said, as the facts change I change my opinion.

     

    I may not trust every pronouncement ATM due to recent history, but as time passes the facts may change and I will adapt to match them. Might still have some caution, as trust once lost is not easily regained, but it can be regained.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Sep 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi thotdoc,
    My favorite, I'm so broke I can't pay attention.
    2 Sep 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    VW, not selling and I am double digit multiple above average shares
    2 Sep 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Amouna --- Agree... I think the PC is what's going to deliver short-term. Given that the longer-term relationships with BMW and NS seem to be well established and on track, I would hope [and have been assuming] Axion's near-term marketing efforts are focused on smaller, varied and sustainable repeat sales.
    2 Sep 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    fwiw, Valleywood: I'm not going to disclose how much axion stock I have but I bought into it using the same method and due diligence that I (try to) apply to every stock investment. Among my core beliefs is that I won't buy a stock I'm not willing to hold for five years come hell or high water.

     

    So, if Axion makes a bull run, and it remains under the FYR, then I'll probably continue to accumulate as time and funds permit.

     

    If it were outside the FYR, total return and another round of due-diligence to see if it re-ups.

     

    If it made a fabtabulouly extravganzamalooza bull run, I probably would sell just enough to cover my initial cash-in buying and let the lion's share ride until I see something that casts grave doubts.

     

    My ultimate dream is a stock the splits a couple times, regains its stock price and then issues say a 2.85% dividend which grows at an annual rate of 7-10% -- because of all the cash the company is generating.

     

    Yeah. My dreams are *that* sexy . . .
    2 Sep 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    "I'm too poor to pay attention . . ."
    2 Sep 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    @stilldazed: sorry - should have read further down -- you posted the same one I thought of . .
    2 Sep 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    >Amouna: I have arrived at the conclusion that the 999 is being tested in some obscure rail yard RIGHT NOW. I think NS management decided months ago that it is not going to risk another: "It works great!.........Uhhh, never mind" PR flop.
    2 Sep 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    garlic milkshake. that is gross. never heard that before.
    2 Sep 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    Re-trust in management. I have voted against management recommendations for board members and share authorization increase to 350 million. Come to think about it, I also voted for annual shareholder advisory on Management comp.
    2 Sep 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    Probably today would be good time to sell the shares in the company whose management you don't support.
    3 Sep 2013, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Growsmart: This may not be a perfect analogy, but would we sell our "shares" in democracy because we don't trust the current management? I think not. I think discuss, analyze, take appropriate voting stance and hope to effect change.

     

    As with politics, pro and con for certain actions, results and people are important. The "measure of success" may be different.

     

    The time to "sell" , rather than "vote", is *probably* when you determine the risk/reward in either the political environment or a company seems untenable. For folks like me, that status has not been reached in either democracy or Axion.

     

    People of all stripes in all situations may have a "learning curve". Whether one is willing to tolerate what comes with that may be a determining factor in whether or not to sell or hang in and vote to effect change.

     

    My view may be biased in that when I first started my career I was unreliable due to being over-confident but management chose not to can me because I had a good attitude, willingly admitted my flaws and stated I would find a resolution.

     

    In just a few days I discovered that "procedure" would offset my over-confidence and from then on got outstanding reviews and progressed in pay, opportunities and responsibility much faster than I had a right to expect.

     

    I, and the company, benefited by my successfully getting through that part of the learning curve via continued opportunity regardless that early results were not up to snuff.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Sep 2013, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Is that on the same menu as okra and turnip smoothies?
    3 Sep 2013, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    HTL. I agree with you 100% on democracy. There is only one choice. History shows all the other choices are worse.
    There are a lot of companies out there to choose from. I have always made it a rule not to hold stock in a company with what is, in my opinion, poor management.
    I think Granville and company have done a great job and my money is where my mouth is.
    3 Sep 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Growsmart: My thinking ATM is that TG & Co. have a "learning curve" to go through as they move from an R & D co. to a commercial enterprise. Part of that, as many have surmised, is integrating *some* stock market considerations into their thinking and behavior.

     

    I believe this is primarily in relation to taking the risk of establishing and communicating milestones for measurable results that the market absolutely needs to *properly* value the company.

     

    Follow-on execution to meet those then-established expectations has to be mostly spot-on. So the old communicate well as you set the bar high enough to generate positive sentiment and low enough to reduce the risk of perceived "misses" seems to me to be the toughest part of the new "skill set" needed.

     

    I don't envy that part of the learning curve. And it likely goes "against the grain" that was established, and needed, for so long. So the transition will not be a cake walk.

     

    There's other things, of course, but I suspect this to be the most difficult transition.

     

    I do believe they will be successful.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Sep 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (158) | Send Message
     
    HTL. So do I. If I didn't I wouldn't be here.
    3 Sep 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    I'm so broke, I can't pay attention!
    3 Sep 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I'm so poor, my mice have left me for a place called Valleywood.
    3 Sep 2013, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Funds *must* report their marketable securities at market value. I think all publicly owned corporations must as well except during certain extraordinary circumstances. (We learned the downside of mark-to-market acctg during the 2008 mass panic for the exits.)
    4 Sep 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Well-crafted perhaps from a legal standpoint, and from the viewpoint of the lenders trying and succeeding to bury the most salient details practically beyond hope of discovery.

     

    Horribly crafted from our view. The minute I saw the length (259 pp) and the fact that there was not even a table of contents, I cursed those bastards out loud. The more I read the document's details about the deal the more I cursed.
    4 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

     

    Being cocksure of AXPW in the medium to long term - I am now full of doubt as to whether I am stupid

     

    That said - More on licensing…

     

    Yesterday I shared thoughts on the timing of a license with a major battery manufacturer for BMW

     

    The BMW initiative is more than a simple hand off – and blessing to do more research. As I understand it BMW have run the tests. They have confirmed the technology and made presentations to public forums with AXPW on it.

     

    They have likely identified a specific year and vehicle where the PbC battery would be used. Maybe on more than one

     

    The holdback articulated has been providing the opportunity to AXPW – who face risks from being too small and undercapitalized to be an acceptable supplier. If what I have suggested is true - the obvious hidden messages are – this works –we want it. Otherwise why waste the major battery manufacturer’s time?

     

    Now as for that manufacturer – they focus first on developing the relationship and considering the application from all angles including what changes they need to make to produce and provide a reliable product to BMW. What is the support infrastructure to deliver? Can we deal with AXPW and strike a balanced deal with them? What is that deal?

     

    On assumption they see that BMW’s work and thoughts make sense and this is an application of value – they need a legal framework to spend more and execute with confidence.
    All this means regular meetings among the 3 parties to move the agenda along. TG was clear that such meetings are being held weekly

     

    Now – unless something goes wrong with application 1 – why would our battery manufacturer not see value in other BMW applications

     

    And if with BMW - why not with other car companies our battery partner deals with?

     

    What if this technology could win car business with car companies our battery partner does not presently deal with?

     

    Ah you say…but BMW may want an exclusive for a period of time at least. Fine – what will they pay for this exclusivity?

     

    What will competing battery companies be willing to offer so they can add to their existing vehicle business?

     

    Lastly our partner and others with confirmation of the value of PbC will surely and quickly see opportunities outside the vehicle applications. If so licenses for these possibilities can be expected to go forward

     

    As I am sure you have concluded – each possibility confirmed leads to further licensing and better terms for AXPW including upfront fees, minimums, higher license rates, etc.

     

    Still a ways to go…but imagine the possibilities - and they do not seem that far off to me
    1 Sep 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • thegreekgatsby
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

     

    Being cocksure of AXPW in the medium to long term - I am now full of doubt as to whether I am stupid"

     

    same here brother....
    1 Sep 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    TheGreekGatsby: Let's solve the conundrum (by creating another): we are cocksure that we are doubtful, no? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Sep 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • thegreekgatsby
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    the only thing i know is that i know nothing
    3 Sep 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/15vhH0u
    3 Sep 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    So, it seems the September time frame for NS 999 to start rolling was correct. I assume the next step is for a "leak" to the media and then an official announcement of on going tests.

     

    We can then start speculating when the Over the Road version will be in test (or results announced) and when the next order for batteries will occur.
    1 Sep 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    SWMBO still sleeps. The mind wanders.

     

    Beemer sold 281,000 vehicles in the USA last year (I think). Assume we garner 25% of that with SS application = 70,000 batteries (if one per). If we stipulate it will take us five years to crank up to that number (which seems reasonable anyway) then we're selling 70K units in five years.

     

    I don't know anything about trucks, but let's stipulate each e-power truck sold uses 35 batteries. Just a nice conservative number, folks. Just a number. So our 70,000 Beemer five year battery projection / 35 batteries per truck = roughly 2000 trucks per year.

     

    So in this rough lumber world, can ePower sell 2000 kits / year, five years from now? Dunno, but it's worth asking anyway. And along the way, ePower is buying from us. Not some day, but all along the way. Beginning right now.

     

    Lacking any quantitative justification except the above, and lacking any facts whatsoever . . . . . I opine ePower is a more valuable customer. Maybe a hasty conclusion, I understand. No owner/operator/fleet verification of durability, etc. but we have a customer today spending money today. Peanuts today, yes, but in five years?

     

    So which is the better bet at this stage? Which is the larger market? Which business can we ease into and which requires complicated legal leaps with attendant complications?

     

    If BMW climbs aboard, then I start polishing their shield. Hell, I may buy one of their cars in celebration. I love European vehicles ! Europe produces (in my opinion) the very best automobiles on earth. But so far we have no agreement and though I expect we will, my expectations and five bucks will buy me a gallon of gasoline.

     

    Meanwhile I LOVE ePower. Money now, and if they prove correct mega-money later. They're the best kind of customer to have.

     

    So, does anybody have actual or realistic figures to test out a five year projection ? Even rough cut will do. Ten years? JP, you can hide in the bushes if you wanna, but I feel deep in my bones that you are entirely too crafty not to have already done napkin math. Fess up. Where's your flashlight ? Anybody else have pencil & paper with the yen to speak?

     

    Gotta go clean out the barn. Winter's coming. Saw a stupid mouse there yesterday. Gotta flush him out and kill him before he chews the tractor wires. When 3 ft. of snow is on the ground is no time for tractor failure. And Her Majesty wants her garden beds completely raised before snow-fly. Labor Day is the official kickoff date for racing Old Man Winter. And I do this for retirement fun? WHAT was I thinking??? Sigh.
    2 Sep 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    In the days before they had an ultra-conservative jerk for a lawyer ePower thought a ramp rate of 12, 96, 1480 and 5050 was achievable.

     

    Since there are several fleet operators who have annual rebuild and replacement rates of 5,000 trucks or more, the numbers could get very silly if ePower's plan to become a packager of drop-ship kits pans out.

     

    The market potential is immense. Now it's all up to the fuel economy performance of the planned third-generation prototypes and the durability and reliability performance of a planned testing fleet that will hopefully accumulate a few million road miles over the next year and a half.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "Saw a stupid mouse there yesterday".

     

    Does than mean it is "cocksure"? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    2 Sep 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL, he's cocksure those seed grains are his for the taking. Gotta go put everything in steel cans and kill the little bastich. Either he pays now or I pay later.

     

    Soooooo are you selling some, all, none, or buying in today's poll?
    2 Sep 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    I added in the recent visitation to <$0.13. Trading blocks.

     

    Done for now.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Sep 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    HTL, nevermind. Dint see your response above. Meanwhile I return to the hunt.
    2 Sep 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    VW, if you would quit feeding the cats you might not have a mouse problem...
    2 Sep 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    Have no cats. See dog above? He kills the cats that kill the mice. I'm trying to teach him to make nice. So far, no luck.

     

    Do have a mouse kill an hour ago or so. Now looking for second mouse. They rarely play the Lone Ranger.

     

    I've tried so hard (spent so much money) trying to make a mouse-proof "barn". I don't get . . . . .'um...... total cooperation if you know what I mean. However, a $1,400 bill for repairing the chewed ignition system on the truck last month may change that momentum. First hard freeze and they'll all try to move inside. That's when I drag out three different kinds of traps, poison, and an array of glue boards.

     

    Back to the killing fields. :>)
    2 Sep 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Mouse proof barn? second mouse? "city folk" ...
    2 Sep 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Tim, LOL!
    -

     

    Some info. on increasing energy density. It's not easy.

     

    MacBook Air battery woes show the downside of the quest for denser batteries

     

    http://bit.ly/173rBn9
    2 Sep 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Tim,

     

    Concrete floors everywhere. Totally clear walls with nothing on the floor. Glue boards made invasion impossible. Then somebody started placing crap on the floors. Then against the walls. Then every bleeping place. No longer mouse proof. Tractors under siege. Got electronic controls I'm trying to protect in the shop. Don't know if I'll be successful. SWMBO however does not have keys to the shop and may not go in. Hopefully Mickey will stay out.

     

    Raising hell now (as best as possible) in the hopes I'll be heard. Gotta make them more afraid of me than I am of chewed wires. Trying to convince somebody to keep the walls clear is like trying to empty the ocean with a spoon. Sigh.
    2 Sep 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    VW, Careful with the poison and the dog. Never know what they will get into and poison works more than once.

     

    A view from just outside your shop. Grasshopper and a side of THHN insulation please.

     

    http://bit.ly/136bmFe
    2 Sep 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    VW, I can't tell you how many weekends I have spent ridding myself of the piles that spring up all over the garage. If I could key the inside door I suspect those piles might stay gone but may have to find addition room inside the garage for my belongings.

     

    Also, sooner of later the garage door must be opened and then all bets are off. Good luck on the mouse hunting. Maybe we could outfit a iRobot with a infrared motion detector and laser beam...
    2 Sep 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, thank you for your concern. Our caution here is extreme. Poison is put out only in winter and it is dilute Advil. Vet says the dogs will be fine second hand. Kills mice in about six weeks, just shy of reproductive cycle.

     

    I cannot tell you how kind I think you are for mentioning that. We are ferocious protectors of the dogs. I won't even bore you with the stories. But I am touched that you reminded me of necessary caution. Thanks !
    2 Sep 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    Tim, I have spent so much money on this pursuit, it's ridiculous. Next year I'm buying what I call an "electronic predator eye" to keep away the deer from our orchard. My failures would make you howl for hours.

     

    I was so successful keeping out mice the first three years I can hardly explain how giddy I was. Then suddenly last year . . . . Working hard trying to convince SWMBO to keep .... stuff. away from the raceways of the walls. Mice killing is becoming my new hobby. I won't win, but I never ran a 4 min mile though many years I tried :>)
    2 Sep 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    VW, I think we've all witnessed some horrible unintended consequences of pest control. Not a big fan of poisons for that reason. Happy to learn your cautious research has yielded a safe solution to your ninja mice problem.
    2 Sep 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Once they get inside, rodents leave smell "calling cards" that tell all of the cousins that there be FOOD in this barn. Sigh.

     

     Knowing food is in there ups the "wall penetration" incentive greatly.
    2 Sep 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3935) | Send Message
     
    VW ... Are U sure the mice are eating the electrical wire and not squirrel?
    2 Sep 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Yep. Positive. The bleeping squirrel ate the vent hose to the fuel tank. Had to have it fixed for obvious fire danger. Mice have done the rest. The mechanics at our local Toyota dealer are experts at telling you what animal did the damage. Size of and location of bite marks. I have come to know the dealer owner (blessings of small towns) and he says rodent damage to vehicles is worth one full time mechanic position. :>) " Well in excess of $100,000 revenue per year ." I suspect a great deal more. Great for him. Expensive for me.

     

    The dogs have killed the groundhogs but the squirrels are still a problem. Avatar dog is three and is still learning how to kill them. Older dog is no longer fast enuff. Mysteriously (to me) they have no interest in mice.
    3 Sep 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    VW: "Had to have it fixed for obvious fire danger"

     

    Wow! That's the best reason I ever heard for having an animal "fixed"! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    3 Sep 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Small terriers make good ratters, VW. I had a neighbor whose little terrier lived in the barn, and who would neatly pile the dead mouse and rat carcases at the entry every morning. He knew he would get a treat for every rodent.
    3 Sep 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I have Barred Owls living in my back acreage. They are very vocal, fairly large owls, and will take many rodents.

     

    http://bit.ly/14ngm5D

     

    I saw one glide silently across the French doors which open onto the back yard from my studio just a few hours ago, just before daybreak, and scoop up either a vole or a mouse.

     

    We also had Coopers Hawks nesting on the back lot, although I believe their young are all fletched and on their own now.

     

    A few predators like this will "balance" your rodent population quickly.
    3 Sep 2013, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    TB, Bleep ! You have reminded me of something so obvious. I have "intended" to put up owl boxes, but in the overwhelming wave of tasks moving into a new home (five years now!) I had forgotten. The road to hell paved with good "intentions". What a dumbass I am ! (am I allowed to say that?)

     

    Thanks for reminding me. I'll have our little forest loaded with owl boxes before spring. You're great for posting that. Don't know which is of greater magnitude: your post or my stupidity. Kudos to you !
    3 Sep 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Wiley Coyote would come up with a mouse killing machine using an axion (acme) battery or two. I can see the diagram now...
    3 Sep 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    VW and HTL,

     

    The Manchester Terrier was actually bred to be a ratter: http://bit.ly/1dLpxGp

     

    My mom has one as a pet, and it is extremely protective, loyal and obedient to her. Dad has to play second fiddle to the dog. ;-)

     

    I had squirrels gnawing a hose for the LPG tank on a barbecue once. Cayenne and tinfoil solved the problem. Capsicum pepper spray would likely work as well.
    3 Sep 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Australian battery technology for remote sites

     

    "Emerson Network Power and Australian engineering and manufacturing company RedFlow have formed a partnership to take RedFlow’s flow battery storage technology into new markets.

     

    Plans are already underway for a trial with a telecommunications company located in the Asia-Pacific region and the two companies are in discussion with a European-based telecommunications company.

     

    Under the agreement, Emerson Network Power will integrate its solar energy solutions with RedFlow’s zinc bromide module (ZBM) flow batteries to provide power to remote sites that lack continuous power."

     

    http://bit.ly/17j6wlt
    2 Sep 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2651) | Send Message
     
    AXPW!!! Too bad..........

     

    http://bit.ly/1fuHQLJ

     

    The rest of the story: http://bit.ly/1cz6z1T
    2 Sep 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >nakedjaybird ... I don't see how your example or "iindelco"s Emerson Network Power example are any real threat to Axion. Why? Because Axion doesn't do this type of energy storage. Yet, the CAT Power video presents an opportunity to Axion that wouldn't change the installation one bit. Pitch control power for windmills. A job now done either with Li-on (with not terribly satisfactory performance results ... so I've read) or with supercapacitors (still very expensive but the best choice for very small turbines). I don't know if Axion has ever tried to compete in this arena, but should.

     

    Both applications look like they will make ZBB's life a little more difficult.
    2 Sep 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Too bad?
    Looks like perfect application for PbC batteries too. Who said you have to use only one type of battery for every function of an application?
    2 Sep 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2651) | Send Message
     
    drich and greent - the "too bad...." is that someone else is doing it; "it" being very possibly doable applications (re. video) with Cat in places like even in Australia or Micronesia; places further from home than even the class 8 opportunity of CA hiways and biways.

     

    I can't rule out some applications which would look like PowerCube territory being served by flow batteries. How poorly would the PbC perform????? I really don't know. Except, daily cycling should be good. Everyother day cycling?? Not so good. When does it look ugly. That I do not know (whether tied to solar, wind or diesel, competing with flow batteries or not).

     

    Knowing the nature of all the AXPW RFP activity, etc., would help.

     

    YES, where is ZBB?
    2 Sep 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2100) | Send Message
     
    Re: ZBB. The metallic zinc and organic complex bromine hybrid flow batteries are neither cheap nor particularly efficient. Also, for more energy storage, you have to add more "modules" and not just more tank volume. If I were making an estimate on a several cycles per day system, I think a 600$ /kWh PbC array would win over a hybrid flow battery of the ZBB and RedFlow variety.

     

    So far, all of the Zn-Br installations seem driven by guvmint money as part of the widely infamous "demonstration project". If anyone knows of a decent sized, 90%+ privately funded Zinc Bromide battery installation, please let us know.
    2 Sep 2013, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Valley

     

    Like your thinking

     

    Lower hanging fruit is ePower = short term sustained growing cash flow.

     

    A meaningful legal agreement with BMW battery manufacturer (that can be announced) moves the price needle very quickly North but the EPS numbers will not be felt for a few years yet

     

    Long term looks like a retirement package to me

     

    Think long term

     

    PS BMW sells cars in countries other than US
    2 Sep 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660)