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  • Let's hope this concentrator brings the news that will begin the rise of the pps.
    15 Sep 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • I'll ditto that.


    General news
    Ford Explores More Accurate Method for Predicting Electric Vehicle Range
    No real information Just an announcement.


    California Passes Historic $2 Billion Clean Vehicle Bill; Extends Plug-In Vehicle Rebate Program Through 2023
    Not mentioned here Ca. recently extended the HOV lane for several years.


    ALG Reduces Plug-In Vehicle Residual Values; Nissan LEAF Hit With $2,500 Reduction
    Residual values play a key role in determining lease rates and become somewhat relevant when vehicles hit the used lots.


    With that in mind, we’re somewhat displeased to say that ALG, a world leader in predicting automotive residual values, has cut residual values for most plug-in vehicles.


    ALG cites high incentives and price cuts for the reduction in residual values, which hit the Nissan LEAF especially hard. ALG says the recent reduction in residuals led to a $2,500 price cut on a three-year-old LEAF. But then again, that was bound to happen as the entry level LEAF is now $6,400 cheaper than it was last yet.


    Other plug-in vehicles, including the Chevy Volt, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Focus Electric and Fiat 500e were hit with reduced residuals by ALG.


    Eric Lyman, vice president of residual value solutions for ALG, added this to the discussion:


    “We have some concerns with demand seemingly shorter than initial expectations, and what it means after all those early adopters have met that demand.”


    The article continues a bit from there.
    15 Sep 2013, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • no whining
    15 Sep 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • A video from VW has some information and pictures on battery testing.
    A couple of unlikely idea at the beginning.
    Such as a "Modified Gas station" to charge your car.
    15 Sep 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • Will the NS-999 be spotted in use this week or next?


    It is only 2 weeks from the next fiscal year, for government related industries.
    16 Sep 2013, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • Even a blind squirrel catches a nut once in awhile. So far the Axion timing dart board remains a virgin and the wall needs a ton of spackle. :-(
    16 Sep 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • There are also other potential railroads that would want Axion batteries besides Norfolk Southern.

  “Green” Locomotive Roundup
    16 Sep 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Pure genius.


    Tesla (TSLA) to Develop Hybrid Battery Packs that Could Increase Range 40% - Analyst

    16 Sep 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • In a PT Barnum sort of way:

    16 Sep 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Shouldn't there actually be a "metal-air" battery existing outside a lab before it is declared a consumer product success? The seeming introduction in 2015 seems a bit close.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, Space cowboys are not hampered by such barriers. Keep the stock price pumped and all things are time.
    16 Sep 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • OT- Real or not it speaks volumes but should not be seen as a one size fits all explanation.


    An Aspiring Scientist’s Frustration with Modern-Day Academia: A Resignation



    Edit Off to read your most recent article.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • That's not a new one. It's 2009 vintage.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John!
    16 Sep 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • :-) Reads to me as nothing much has changed in the past .5 century or so.
    16 Sep 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • BTW, They have cheap EV's now.


    Clearance Sale Offers Discontinued Coda Electric Car At Discount

    16 Sep 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • ii,
    Your linked statement was written by someone with a clear grasp of English, not machine translated or translated by a hack. The author put into words what many here (and elsewhere have stated). Like the author, I have no answer to undo the academic damage done.
    16 Sep 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • IIndelco
    $7,500 for a Glider. I wonder if it has a motor?


    I could probably shoe horn in enough PbC to get a 30 mi range (good enough for my short days with some to spare.) It would give me enough speed for the main roads, even highways. As opposed to an NEV at 25-35mph top speed.
    Unfortunately it would be nearly 100% coal powered. :-[


    Do you think the city would let me put solar panels under the street lights? :>
    16 Sep 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey, Seeing a ton of used Leafs at dealers with low miles for about 17k USD. These transfer warranty. Thus the glider has to be pretty cheap. I'd guess it's with the motor and if I recall in the article it stated only the battery and BMS were not in the gliders.


    Then maybe talk w/ ePower and see if you could get your hands on those used last gen PbC's.


    Yeah, I could see the big 4 wheeled solar panel pushed out in the street every night under the street lamp. Maybe sneak it into a Home Depot parking lot and put a sign on it. "Property of (your municipality name here) . May be easier to splice into the neighbors pool outlet under the ground when he goes on vacation! lol
    16 Sep 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks to DRich and froggey


    We continue to watch and wait...or is it wait and watch
    16 Sep 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Peripherally OT:


    Tropical forest carbon absorption may hinge on an odd couple


    Tropical forests thrive on natural nitrogen fertilizer pumped into the soil by trees in the legume family, a diverse group that includes beans and peas, the researchers report in the journal Nature. The researchers studied second-growth forests in Panama that had been used for agriculture five to 300 years ago. The presence of legume trees ensured rapid forest growth in the first 12 years of recovery and thus a substantial carbon "sink," or carbon-storage capacity. Tracts of land that were pasture only 12 years before had already accumulated as much as 40 percent of the carbon found in fully mature forests. Legumes contributed more than half of the nitrogen needed to make that happen, the researchers reported.


    A Princeton University-based study found that a unique housing arrangement between trees in the legume family and the carbo-loading rhizobia bacteria may determine how well tropical forests can absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, especially forests recovering from exploitation. The researchers found that legume trees gave tracts of land that were pasture only 12 years before the ability to store 50 metric tons of carbon per hectare (2.47 acres), which equates to roughly 185 tons of carbon dioxide, or the exhaust of some 21,285 gallons of gasoline.....


    The legumes' secret is a process known as nitrogen fixation, carried out in concert with infectious bacteria known as rhizobia, which dwell in little pods inside the tree's roots known as root nodules. As a nutrient, nitrogen is essential for plant growth, but tropical soil is short on nitrogen and surprisingly non-nutritious for trees. Legumes use secretions to invite rhizobia living in the soil to infect their roots, and the bacteria signal back to initiate nodule growth. The rhizobia move into the root cells of the host plant and — in exchange for carbohydrates the tree produces by photosynthesis — convert nitrogen in the air into the fertilizer form that plants need. Excess nitrogen from the legume eventually creates a nitrogen cycle that benefits neighboring trees.
    16 Sep 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • And so now you know why many farmers, when they "rest" an area of their farm, seed the area with clover.
    16 Sep 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Yep. Walking around various areas near grandfathers farm there would be lot's of clover where nothing was planted. Miles and miles of patchwork crops and clover. Ground hog heaven!
    16 Sep 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • You can thank Charles "Turnip" Townshend for discovering the benefits of clover and crop rotation during the Agricultural Revolution in England in the early 1700's.


    I never miss the chance to throw that bit of knowledge into a conversation.
    16 Sep 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • I just got an e-mail from Axion on the RigZone article. I don't think it rises to the level of a formal press release, but it's good to see that they're getting the word out to the e-mail list in any event.
    16 Sep 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • I really wish the author would have taken the time to fact and grammar check the article. She keeps bouncing around on the number of batteries being used and some of the sentences are just poorly written. Not to mention that she keeps jumping between subjects. Ah well, at least it is PR.
    16 Sep 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • George M Cohan said "I don't care what you say about me, as long as you say something about me, and as long as you spell my name right."


    The author got both spellings right, so complaining seems superfluous.
    16 Sep 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, agreed. Link here:
    16 Sep 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • OK, knocking on the door of a new low again...


    Sluggish volume, too.


    HTL, if you have your ears on, do you see support anywhere? All I see is mush.
    16 Sep 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Just bumped my offer up to $.1251... From $.123 last week, and $.125 earlier this morning (low was $.1251)...


    LOL, doing my part.
    16 Sep 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Gotcha.
    16 Sep 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Congrats!
    16 Sep 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • TB: I see much too. Buy:sell still weak and daily shorts low. That tells me lots of available shares.


    I'm still thinking <$0.12 is in the cards.


    16 Sep 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Last night I listened to a panel of renewable energy experts on NPR.
    Nothing particularly new and exciting to report on that front.


    However one thing that was clear.
    The battery expert (Li Ion) was looking for other answers to the renewable irregularity problems.
    Answers such as transmission of power from one area of the country to another. (I think she used Germany for her example.)
    Batteries for frequency response but for a month of fog and no wind she had no ideas. She considered it the major problem.
    Another expert claimed there were no technical problems that they didn't know how to overcome there are no Show stoppers.


    But it would need a lot of batteries. Which he implied was not a problem in his mind.


    The battery expert while not disagreeing too much "I don't want to talk myself out of a job." was not agreeing this would happen.
    16 Sep 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • While you can in theory transmit power from the east coast to the west coast, line drop makes it uneconomical to do so more that about 500 miles.
    16 Sep 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77,


    "Another expert claimed there were no technical problems that they didn't know how to overcome there are no Show stoppers"


    This is probably true, as long as you don't factor in the cost of something. I'm sure they can build more wind mills, hang more power lines, and build all the battery storage necessary to utilize renewable energy. Paying for it, that's always the problem.
    16 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Don't forget the raw materials.
    16 Sep 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • "Don't forget the raw materials"


    I'm not worried. I'm sure Musk will be able to mine a few asteroids for those. Remember, money is no object in this fantasy world.
    16 Sep 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • How silly of me. I forgot that there are no barriers to the inventor of the Hypesterloop.
    16 Sep 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Has some schedule timing.


    Axion Confirms 2013 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

    16 Sep 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • The Mine of the Future
    Kyle Maxey posted on September 12, 2013


    "Named the Autonomous Hauling System, this new mining technology consists of a fleet of autonomous trucks that are capable of loading, hauling and dumping raw iron ore without the need for direct human interaction.
    In fact, these massive mining machines and the software that controls them, are so reliable that they’re actually controlled by operators siting 930 miles away."


    And yes there are people at the site who get around and do surveying and other jobs. (The article does not mention how this part works.)
    16 Sep 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • OT Publicity BMW doesn't want.


    BMW M6 owner goes Hulk over defects, smashes own car

    16 Sep 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • LOL, truly the "ultimate driving experience".


    Hard to top that.
    17 Sep 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Not lithium ion. Mon ami, how can this be?


    Duke Energy's battery storage project in Texas wins top North American award


    "The project's 36-megawatt (MW) advanced lead acid battery helps smooth the naturally variable output from Duke Energy's 153-MW Notrees Wind Power Project. By storing energy generated by the wind farm, the project can respond quickly to regulate frequency and provide ancillary services for grid management."

    16 Sep 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • The tragic comedy aspect of the award is that the Notrees project used batteries from Xtreme Power which is no longer in the battery business.

    16 Sep 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder who might fill that gap? (advanced lead-acid batteries for frequency regulation and ancillary services for grid management)
    16 Sep 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • >D Lane ... That gap will be filled by whoever it is that bought the Oklahoma factory. Xtreme Power sold the manufacturing to an established battery manufacturere .... I've no idea who that is. It should be reopened soon, maybe.


    "In other words, Xtreme isn’t abandoning its own battery chemistry, he said. It’s simply letting go of the most capital-intensive part of its business, which is building, selling and financially backing the batteries themselves, he [CEO Alan Gotcher] said"



    Hopefully, Axion will be as lucky.
    16 Sep 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • DL:
    Wasn't there a chart around somewhere showing how Xtreme Power stacked up against Axion?
    16 Sep 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • I don't recall ever seeing one. Xtreme Power was every bit as tight lipped with its performance specifications as Axion is, so I don't know how one would even go about doing such a comparison.
    16 Sep 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • I recall a lot of confusion about the chemistry in articles regarding Xtreme Power.
    16 Sep 2013, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    Extreem power was working on software as well as batteries.
    As far as I know they only made LA. However they made software for Li Ion as well as LA systems, for others.
    Extreem may have only supplied the BMS while others supplied the batteries. Now they are out of the battery part all together and only do the software.
    I think we got confused assuming their batteries were inside, when we saw their name and failed to dig deeper.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • >froggey77 ... I think your flying just a little bit too far afield. Those batteries in NoTrees were Xtreme developed & Xtreme manufactured. First in Lyle and then on a pilot line in OK. Here is what amounts to the best guess of what that battery's chemistry might be per John Petersen:


    Xtreme Power is apparently commercializing a lead based dry-cell technology that was originally developed by Ford. Their product description that says "Proprietary formulas of fundamental alloys, such as copper, lead and tellurium, are used to form bi-polar plates that provide a massive surface area at the nano-scale for the chemical reaction to take place, resulting in an extremely low internal resistance." [ ]


    And ... this might be why Xtreme isn't keen on making the battery, per D Lane


    "Sam Jaffe at IDC says he has confidence that Xtreme could one day get its prices down to $500 a kilowatt hour, or less than flow batteries and sodiums but Xtreme is not near that price now. . . [ ]
    16 Sep 2013, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    You're right they did have a solid state battery of some kind.


    They also did and do BMS work for others.
    GE Taps Xtreme Power for Battery Controls
    The solid-state battery tech startup will turn GE Durathon batteries into “energy storage turnkey solutions.”
    They also worked with Samsung on Li Ion.
    16 Sep 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Research seeks best bang-for-buck on bus efficiency


    "One hypothesis: bus manufacturers could achieve significant fuel savings at a much lower cost than full hybrids by powering cooling fans, air conditioning, and other accessories with separate batteries.


    Kittelson has concluded that running those systems off electric batteries has potential to improve fuel economy up to 15 percent at a cost of around $20,000 per bus. Advanced hybrids might achieve double the efficiency but at ten times the cost, he said."
    16 Sep 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • Another link on advanced electrical systems in heavy-duty vehicles:


    Overcoming Battery Charging Imbalance
    With the emergence of advanced electrical systems in today’s bus designs, reliance on batteries to power them has become increasingly important. These continually evolving electrical subsystems are putting a tremendous strain on the batteries that power them, so effective management of the battery bank’s charge and discharge characteristics are imperative to extending the overall life of deep-cycle AGM batteries.


    Proper balancing of a bus’ electrical load can mean the difference between achieving a battery’s rated lifecycle or its premature failure
    16 Sep 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe someone should develop a self-balancing battery string. Oh ya, that's a pbc.
    First the other batteries have to fail, then they come to Axion. Once e-power gets off the ground, Axion will be beating back all of these kinds of applications with a stick.
    16 Sep 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Auto dealers group claim Tesla making false advertising claims


    From The Detroit News:


    Seems that Tesla is making claims that aren't quite appreciated by California auto dealers.


    [quote] The group said its “analysis exposes the company’s misleading claims that customers can take advantage of multiple incentives, gas savings, and tax savings resulting in low monthly vehicle payments, when it is unlikely that customers will actually realize such savings.” [quote]


    [quote] The dealers say on Tesla’s website that a user can lower “the monthly payment quote to a mere $114/month. To put this into perspective, this is significantly cheaper than the current advertised lease special for the Nissan Versa — America’s cheapest new car — which has a monthly payment of $139.” [quote]


    Tesla versus the nation's Auto Dealers Assoc.'s could become an interesting fight to watch.
    17 Sep 2013, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • Now here's a instance of the pot pointing out the color of the kettle if I ever saw one. Dealers worried about clear, straight forward advertising. lol
    17 Sep 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • OT French Bolloré Group Sues BMW for Industrial Espionage

    17 Sep 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Given there is a range of days on which the shareholder meeting could occur, is the date of the meeting earlier or later in that range?


    17 Sep 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Yesterday's press release confirmed that the meeting would be held on Thursday September 26th at 10 a.m.

    17 Sep 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Should we expect an announcement of sales before the meeting or during?
    17 Sep 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue,


    I view sales PR and the Shareholder Meeting as two completely uncorrelated events. Press releases on sales will happen when they happen, regardless of the meeting. IMO
    17 Sep 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • TG promised sales news before the next conference call in mid-November, not before the stockholders meeting in late-September. With the way the SEC's regulations are structured, sitting on news to make preferential disclosure at a stockholders meeting would be highly problematic.
    17 Sep 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you. I knew that; my question is within the range of possible the this early or late. I
    am interested in the question of: Is he getting to us early or putting it off as long as possible?
    17 Sep 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • OK That answer came in after I'd posted again


    17 Sep 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • This year's meeting is a couple months later than normal, but a lot of that had to do with reporting and registration complexities arising from the PIPE.


    Under the SEC's Proxy Rules, Axion is required to file its Annual Report and a Proxy Statement with the SEC before distributing the Proxy Statement to investors.


    Under the terms of the PIPE, Axion was required to promptly file a registration statement for the shares underlying the notes.


    While it doesn't rise to the level of a rule, established practice with the SEC says you don't hit them with two or more major filings at the same time because a series of sequential filings can incorporate any comment related changes and ease the review burden on the SEC's staff.


    Since there are a lot of moving pieces to manage in connection with a stockholders meeting and vacation conflicts are always a concern, I probably would have advised a September meeting instead of the June or July dates we've seen in the past and will most likely see in the future.
    17 Sep 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • JP,


    You are right I didn't see it from this angle. So in your opinion the adequate and less risky thing for Axion's management to do is to disclose sales some time between now and the shareholder meeting?
    17 Sep 2013, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Given the PIPE, common sense would have one share positive information in an efficient fashion. Well, unless TG is a masochist. I'm betting he's not.
    17 Sep 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Not to mention that IMO TG did not want to face shareholders after the PIPE and price drop. Unwritten rules are sometimes convenient.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • So we are about to have a total of 350 mil shares..... This means that if our dreams come true and AXPW reaches the range of + 3 - 4 $ the market cap will surpass 1 bil. $.
    Is that possible?... Lets hope for the best
    17 Sep 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Greek,


    As I understand it, 350 million shares is the MAXIMUM number of shares of the Equity capital that Axion can issue before seeking another shareholder approval, but it does not mean that management will issue all these shares, or at least I hope not!
    17 Sep 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • There are two important numbers in any company's capital structure.


    The first is the authorized capital, which is the total number of shares the board of directors has the authority to issue without a stockholder vote.


    The second is the issued and outstanding shares, which is always a far lower number.


    On August 7th, Axion had 131 million shares outstanding with seven installments left on the PIPE. If the price stays in the $0.13 range for the duration, Axion may have up to 200 million shares outstanding when the dust settles. The other 150 million shares will be authorized and unissued until the board decides to do another financing or acquisition transaction.


    A couple weeks ago I filed articles of incorporation to convert ePower from an LLC to a corporation. While ePower only plans to issue 10 million shares at the outset, I included an authorization for 100 million shares because that's what careful lawyers do.


    On July 31st Tesla motors had 121.5 million shares outstanding and 2 billion shares authorized.


    The bottom line is you're focusing on a meaningless number.
    17 Sep 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Hi JP,


    A question about ePower. From a performance point of view, do the ePower trucks have better acceleration/power on hillclimbs and does the regenerative braking increase safety on the downhills?
    17 Sep 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • That's what u said the last time they increased the shares and all financings that they are price is .13 and the more shares the lower the price ...... it's pure dilution at this point and every raise lowers the return currrent shareholders can expect or hope for.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • When it comes to acceleration, the ePower tractor is very quick compared to other Class 8 trucks because the electric drive motor has something on the order of 52,000 foot pounds of instantaneous torque at the rear wheels. Since the goal of the system is maintaining steady speed on both uphill and downhill grades, I have to imagine that the recuperative braking helps with safety, but I'd feel better if one of our current or former truck drivers weighed in on that subject.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • John,
    It will be interesting to see how the ePower trucks do on tire wear, since we've heard many reports that EVs and HEVs have a higher tread wear due to the instantaneous torque on the wheels.
    17 Sep 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Labtech, No reason for that based on modern motor controls. Given that you have full control of the power to the drive motors it can be managed. I suspect what's going on is more than just more instantaneous power. But also, since it's not their nickle, I'm sure it's not a priority to work on tire life. That will change if it's really significant.
    17 Sep 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • thanks JP. Lets hope there will be some kindo of income for AXPW in the near future, otherwise we will have to issue the rest of the authorized shares as well, as i see it...
    17 Sep 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • John, while I agree that Axion may not need the entire 350M shares -- if past performance is any indication of future performance then they will blow right past that 350M share number.


    At this point, the rate of increasing shares outstanding should be sickening to any long term holder.


    Before I made my decision to buy, I guesttimated that Axion would have north of 200M shares outstanding before they were a viable company and you politely disagreed with me.


    I don't know what the next couple months will bring, but something big has to occur to change this trajectory.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • If you believe Axion's future performance with a fully developed product and over four years of successful testing under its belt will mirror past performance during the R&D and product testing phases then you ought to sell your shares immediately. If you believe the facts today are very different from the facts Axion faced in 2009, then selling at this point would be improvident.


    Every equity behaves like a pendulum as it swings slowly back and forth between maximum optimism and maximum pessimism. The price only touches fair value momentarily at bottom dead center. I don't believe a more profound level of shareholder pessimism is possible, but I've heard first hand from one customer that it wouldn't have a product without Axion's product and limited communications from other potential customers seem to agree with that assessment.


    I will not assume that past performance is an indicator of anything because the past was focused on development and testing where the future is focused on manufacturing and selling.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • JP when do you think we transitioned into "selling" mode. Many thought it was way back when TG was predicting 200%+ increase in sales that have yet to happen, others have suggested the first delivery to NS was a critical milestone, and now some say the "sheeting" process is confirmation that we are ready for BIG orders. I just want to make sure we are out of the "past" since I really thought 2013 was the break-out year. Now I'm hoping 2014 but my gut tells me the wait will be longer.


    "the past was focused on development and testing where the future is focused on manufacturing and selling."
    17 Sep 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • >bazooooka ... I believe you're right. Look to 2015 as first sustainable sales year. BMW is at least a year out because of the complexity of setting up within a battery OEM ... hopeful. Norfolk Southern is possibly mid to late next year because of BP4 field trials and continued OTR testing ... hopeful. ePower Engine Systems is possibly mid to late next year but 2015 is more likely because of the time it will take for fleet qualifying the operations parameters. That leaves Viridity and/or PowerCube demonstrations as the best chance for 2014 ... and we don't have a clue what's going on with that.
    17 Sep 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • I'm reluctant to predict when sales will ramp or how rapidly they'll ramp, but it doesn't really matter to me because the market gives transition stage companies significant credit for future revenues long before the first dollar arrives.


    Maxwell's price turned sharply north in mid-2009 as rumors of a development relationship with Continental began to emerge and confidence began to develop for a 2010 MY design win that didn't actually start generating revenue until Q3-10.


    Right now the great terror in every Axionista's heart is that nobody will want to buy the PbC and the last 10 years were a profound waste of time and money. As soon as DRich's Credible Customer No. 1 arrives on the scene and gives Axion a visible path to rapid revenue growth, the fear that nobody will want the PbC will quickly morph into conviction that everybody needs the PbC.


    I won't try to predict when that transition will happen, but all my spider senses are telling me that the time is not measured in years.
    17 Sep 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • JP,


    "Right now the great terror in every Axionista's heart is that nobody....needs PbC"


    To be perfectly honest, my fear right now is not that the PbC is not a viable product, but that we will continue seeing PbC sales of $100K here, $300K there with no clear path to recurring sales between now and May 2014, at which time the pps will still be in the doldrums, and we will have to go to raise financing at absolutely horrendous terms, further diluting our ownership in Axion.
    17 Sep 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • In other words, your great terror is that DRich's Credible Customer No. 1 won't appear until after Axion needs another financing round.


    It could work out that way and it would be foolish to ignore the possibility. I don't believe the widely feared outcome is a high probability outcome. If I did I wouldn't continue to own the stock.
    17 Sep 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I definitely draw a distinction between sales and share price appreciation. The two are just 2nd cousins, twice removed and won't be any closer until Axion is measured by post growth profitability. I'm hoping that day will come someday but I see it is at least 5 years out when most here are long gone and/or reduced their holdings to something more rational. It seems so many here are worried about actual profit from sales. I'm not. I'm interested in see the road ahead, known as cash flowing sales, and not the destination. Who knows maybe both can happen together. It's just the wanderlust in me.


    As to my Customer No. 1, I'm leaning heavily to ePower Enigine Systems winning the loving cup I have on the shelf. We shall see. I'm anxious to see what the first application marketed might be and the when is vexing.
    17 Sep 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • We're going to do our best DRich. Now let's just hope the numbers for the Cummins six work as well in practice as they do in theory.
    17 Sep 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • Kinda discouraging to think that EPower may be the first one in transport to give an order not just for testing purposes. But I too hope that they can scale up to speed sooner than we've seen from others who have interest in Axion.


    Hopefully, you're wrong about price appreciation and AXPW time till profits. In my mind, the market cap will reflect sales potential long before the sales occur as long as the probability of such a thing can be calculated to a degree of certainty which includes not only the "if" component but also the "when".
    17 Sep 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • If you believe ePower is going to scale up and show a path to success before something else shows up you might just as well sell your shares. Not gonna happen. We better get some friction out of one of the other eluded to hints long before then.
    17 Sep 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... OK, you've peaked my interest. Care to share why you think ePower can't/won't scale before Norfolk or BMW. I leave the PowerCube out because I know nothing about where it stands either in demonstration or likely sales.


    On a cash flow basis, I see ePower as probably the most likely to feed in continued production for New Castle. I know ePower will be small quantities if you want to compare it to Norfolk or BMW but let's look at the likelyhood of either of them doing that ... say by June of next year. Norfolk will require field trials and evaluation within a corporate structure before it commits to battery power. I see it as possible by Q3 or Q4 of 2014. For BMW, unless they are a lot further down the road with OEM integration, I'm guessing that the earliest a line can be up & qualified is Q4 of 2014 to Q2 or 2015 with production Q4 of 2015 at the earliest.


    On a share price appreciation basis, I'd put the movers as a battery OEM agreement (personally, this is the biggest event for Axion's future), Norfolk announcing a commitment with the building of demonstrators or OTR prototype and last, but not least, ePower announcing an order backlog. What order these events occur and timing ... I've no idea. Share price decimation will happen if another round of financing is required with no visible evidence of any of these events is likely unless PowerCubes can save the day.


    Your speculation...???
    17 Sep 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, Based on where we are now, I think we need signs that we have a very clear path to something large that will scale heavily in a known time frame. The immediate cash needs are not really important once that happens. Cash on more reasonable terms is available with contracts and a business plan.


    Give me a reportable event with someone recognized in the auto business in the next few months or even an OTR loco prototype contact this year and IMO it will mean far more to the market than anything ePower can deliver in a necessary time frame from a perception point of view.


    I'm not trying to minimize the potential of ePower but they have a longer path to a proven market and they are well behind the curve based on their ability to commit in the time frame necessary.


    How long and how much capital have BMW and NSC spent on the testing of the PbC battery? How much commitment should they have, if it's as sweet a tech. as we think it is, given the targeted apps we think it's a appropriate for?


    This is my point. ePower is a great opportunity but it will not be able to show a clear path to its full potential before Axion needs money again. They just can't have enough durability testing in time for Axions needs.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • It's important to remember that ePower has described a slow and steady path assuming a worst case scenario. It plans to do the two rebuilds and associated fuel economy testing this fall and then build a fleet of ten trucks with its own capital to prove durability. The plan assumes every bit of fund raising will be a street fight and every approach to the industry will be met with a brick wall of skepticism. It's the safest approach, but the calculations indicate that the Cummins six ought to get better than 9 mpg with an 80,000 GVW. If ePower can credibly present those kinds of numbers, there should be enough early adopters to need a lot more than ten trucks.
    18 Sep 2013, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • Earlier, D. Lane posted an article from Another story from that site represents a possible marketing opportunity for Axion with a shorter sales window. I too would like to see some revenue sooner that later.


    XL Hybrids adds small bus installations



    “XL Hybrids, Boston, MA, develops aftermarket hybrid-electric powertrain technology specifically for commercial van and small bus fleets.”


    What I liked, it’s; “An electric motor, an advanced lithium-ion battery pack and sophisticated control software comprise the parallel hybrid system, which fits into the vehicle without modifications to the engine or transmission. The company says an installation takes about six hours. While XL Hybrids sells the product directly to fleet operators, the OEM warranties remain intact.”


    and Axion would only need to get their battery, some engineering, & some software support to a company like XL Hybrids to test for their next generation aftermarket hybrid-electric technology. The PbC’s introduction, to testing, to product sales cycle, should be much shorter than NSC, ePower, or BMW, especially if Axion can show that their Pbc technology is more cost effective than lithium-ion. Can they? Or will density & weight win over performance & price?
    18 Sep 2013, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • I am not going to sell my shares now I wait till Nov. if it turns out that the announcement made in last CC has the same credibility as earlier ones, I will gladly sell most of them to some die hard Axionista. It has never been about the question that PbC is a great product but about the company.
    And because the 350 mill shares are a "meaningless number" anyway I voted NO to this plan.
    If sales don't rise significantly in the foreseeable future share count will increase and the likeliness that the company will be bought out for a significant premium to the then running share price of ... 5 to 15 cent ... will increase significantly too, an offer for 20 to 30 cent may then find support.... and make some people their 100% ;)
    18 Sep 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • maybe some question why I am writing skeptical comments, mostly it is to warn new readers not to jump in because PbC is a good idea, I have only invested less than 2% of my account in Axion and still am not pleased about the loss so far, according to some comments people are prone to jump in with both feet and basically drown emotionally and financially.... don't count cents count PERCENTAGE
    18 Sep 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • I like the approach ePower is taking with the building of approx. 10 rigs and leasing them to clients with the most interest/potential. That being said the best case path has us into late 2014 IMO. This being the 10 units with enough miles to make customers feel that the durability is adequate. Good but perhaps not enough to make the next raise as good as we'd like.


    I'd hope to see one more clear path along with this to get a better feeling about Axions commercial success. Not that I doubt they will be a success at some point. It's all about timing and the slope of the build out for equity holders.
    18 Sep 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Sure seems like ePower has a ton of potential. Things need to prove out, though, and that often takes a lot longer than expected, as we all painfully know.


    In its Nov. 15, 2012 press release, Axion said, "The first of the 'boost performance' trucks is scheduled to be on the road, and hauling freight, in November..."
    18 Sep 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • "In its Nov. 15, 2012 press release, Axion said, 'The first of the 'boost performance' trucks is scheduled to be on the road, and hauling freight, in November...' "


    Yeah. Silly me for thinking TG was referring to November 2012.
    18 Sep 2013, 08:41 PM Reply Like
    18 Sep 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv> It's absolutely astounding to me that you want to blame Tom Granville for delays and difficulties at ePower. I don't mind holding an executive responsible for his own conduct. Holding him responsible for the actions of an independent third party seems overly harsh. Hell, even the nuns in grade school didn't punish us for things somebody else did or did not do.
    18 Sep 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • "D-inv> It's absolutely astounding to me that you want to blame Tom Granville for delays and difficulties at ePower."


    It is astounding to me that you criticize my remark and, in effect, defend Tom Granville for 'out of school', unconditional remarks about something he clearly was poorly or entirely uninformed about. My remark effectively holds Granville accountable for HIS OWN ACTIONS, not those of ePower.


    Speaking bluntly, Where in hell lies the difference in "third party action responsibility" between Granville's projection of CF positive performance by '12Q3 and "scheduled to be on the road and hauling freight, in November"??? How does failure of "independent third party" purchase of Axion products differ from "independent third party" performance by a particular PbC buyer? In both cases Granville's remarks were unnecessary and misleading to Axion investors.
    18 Sep 2013, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • I disagree, but that's nothing new.


    Stockholders expect management to make forward looking statements and then criticize mercilessly when the risks inherent in every forward looking statement come to pass. The unavoidable fact is that cost overruns, delays and disappointments happen. That's life and if you can't accept it and move on you have no business investing in a nano-cap.


    On balance I think you'd be much happier with a portfolio of municipal bonds.
    18 Sep 2013, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • There must have been a reason TG stated the 300% growth expectation - possibly the same reason he stated "significant sales" to talk about next Q.
    19 Sep 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stockholders expect management to make forward looking statements and then criticize mercilessly when the risks inherent in every forward looking statement come to pass


    Stockholders of any company small or large ... expect mgt. to deliver. AXPW has not delivered and to date is/has been a losing investment.
    You are way too critical of anyone who holds them accountable and does not praise their failure.
    19 Sep 2013, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • I'm critical of commenters who have no skin in the game and harshly criticize management because potential customers are far more cautious and deliberate than the sidewalk superintendents think they should be.


    For better or worse the PbC is a new device and Axion is a small company. Both facts present huge risks to potential customers who are making multi-million dollar decisions that can have real and substantial impacts on their core business and reputation.


    There have been any number of times in my life when I earnestly believed a YES was imminent and the other party decided that more work was required. It can be frustrating as hell, but it is not a failure.


    "NO" is an easy answer that usually comes quickly. Getting to a "YES" can take a very long time, but the longer the process takes the more certain the eventual YES becomes.
    19 Sep 2013, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • John -


    Come on now. I am just presenting the other side of the argument. I don't believe that, but it is a possibility, just like 200M was a possibility when I suggested it two years ago.


    Bottom line isn't any different though:


    I don't know what the next couple months will bring, but something big has to occur to change this trajectory.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,


    It has been a painful process because no one who invested a few years back (me included) could have seen the delays and challenges ahead. Anyone who pretends to be consistently able to time the bottom of a stock is either lying or has been very lucky, but I do believe, like JP, that the odds for Axion's success are stronger than ever now, regardless of what the stock chart says.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Easy solution - buy more.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Keeping my powder dry as I still think (believe IMO) we will see lower levels from here...:(
    17 Sep 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • RE: "... the odds for Axion's success are stronger than ever now, regardless of what the stock chart says."


    I wholeheartedly agree with this assessment. --- As far as past performance being an indicator of anything, I worry less about share issuance and pps than TG's record of having over promised and under delivered so often. As much as I want to believe there will be announcements of significant orders before the next cc, I still need to see it to actually believe it. The old saying, "One in the hand is worth two in the bush" comes to mind often for me these days.
    17 Sep 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • I can not disagree with you Wayne. You have a point on that!
    if TG delivers this time on what he has promised us at the last CC, it will restore back some of the lost trust in him
    17 Sep 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Agree Amouna. I sometimes think there's nothing more important right now that restoring some of that lost trust. The next couple of months could be very telling.
    17 Sep 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • How soon is now?
    Hydrogen powered cars on the way


    Hyundai has the first 'Commercially' produced fuel cell car.
    Meaning you can order one now. However there is little infrastructure. They expect to lease them at first. As several other companies are bringing out FCEVs (Fuel Cell EVs) they expect the infrastructure to improve drastically.


    It weighs 550 pounds more than the gas version but has more pickup off the line. The gas car catches up after a bit.
    It will go nearly as far as the gas version per tank.


    Cost $200 grand.
    17 Sep 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Hi froggey,
    I don't know much about fuel cells, but wouldn't it be just as easy to run one off CNG or LPG? The CNG infrastructure is being built up and LPG is fairly easy to find.
    17 Sep 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • "It weighs 550 pounds more than the gas version but has more pickup off the line."


    Buy one today and get your first set of replacement tires free.
    The LabTech special. A real deal! ;-D
    17 Sep 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • More weight = more tire wear.
    17 Sep 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Forget about the sticker price. Lets apply tesla math. Using the $114/month for a $70K vehicle, proportionally this would be only $325/month.
    17 Sep 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • >JohnM121 ... You forgot .... Plus tax, title & imagination
    17 Sep 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • TB, Yes sir.


    And with a little more acceleration they move more toward gripping tires which wear faster. Safety first as it should be. Membership not only has its privileges but also its costs.
    17 Sep 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    "I don't know much about fuel cells, but wouldn't it be just as easy to run one off CNG or LPG?"


    I've never heard a real answer to that, and I've asked.
    The reason I think is the answer is that NG is not a pure source. There are many gasses in NG. Not all burn perfectly.


    First problem is something I think I know but am not 100% sure of: The gunk in NG will likely clog up the fuel cell and need fixing somehow.
    The second is psychological: Hydrogen is pure and will leave nothing but water vapor and heat behind.


    That is not true for a NG Fuel cell which reduces CO2 but does not eliminate it. Nor does it eliminate things like sulfur which is in NG.
    (Less than you get from driving a gas or diesel powered ICE as well NOX and a few other things. But not none.)


    The reason this is psychological as yet:
    Hydrogen has a similar long tailpipe problem to an EV.
    Most Hydrogen (At least in the US and several other places.) comes from the breakdown of NG to get hydrogen.
    It is possible to use electricity from wind farms at night to split water. (A very energy intensive process.) and use the hydrogen from that.
    It is also possible that done at a central place they can take care of this better.
    One way is to chill it to LNG levels. I read that the impurities "Fall out". I assume it is easy to remove at that point but they would remix when warmed. This was by the author of the article a "cheap and easy solution".
    NG was to be used to power the process.


    Side thought"
    I've never heard an EV fan use the long-tailpipe reasoning against the use of Hydrogen.
    17 Sep 2013, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Its all about efficiency:
    Fuel cells extract more useful energy from the fossil fuel as opposed to burning it.
    17 Sep 2013, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • froggey,
    Thanks for the reply and info. For some reason I thought I remembered the Bloom Box being a NG fuel cell.
    18 Sep 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • tahoe,
    Thanks for the link.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:06 AM Reply Like
  • The Bloom Box is a NG fuel cell and according to filings in Delaware it's no cleaner than a combined cycle NG turbine.

    18 Sep 2013, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • JP,
    Thanks for the link. Oops, another green wash rip off. Seems that fuel cells do have a place in certain power applications, but according to that link, not all that it is purported to be.
    18 Sep 2013, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • So who'll be attending the Annual meeting? How did you vote on the share increase?


    I expect to attend the meeting (for my first time - I only began accumulating my position around the time of last year's meeting). I'll be staying in Pittsburgh with a friend, so unless there's anyone planning to organize any sort of Axionista meeting the evening prior to the Annual Meeting (I believe Mayascribe had organized such an Axionista meeting/dinner in prior years) I'll only be showing up for the Company's morning, afternoon, and evening activities Thursday 9/26.


    I've amassed a VERY appreciable stake in the company and voted AGAINST the share increase because I want Tom Granville & co. to recognize how disgusted we preexisting Axion shareholders are with the PIPE financing, with the continual absence of information, teaser information which is never followed up, and TG's Kabuki theatre of how bouncy his step is or how jauntily his hat is angled... [I recognize that rejection of this proposal will require another vote in three months at slight added expense, (which I will think wisely invested if TG takes notice of our stockholder despair/agitation) and I am willing to do the necessary and capitulate next vote.]
    17 Sep 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Kabuki theatre - lol.
    17 Sep 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • I voted for the added shares. What choice do we have, really? But I did voice my displeasure by voting against the two new BOD nominees.
    17 Sep 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC, Chances are, given your attendance, you should have some time to converse with TG and some of the other corporate officers. Take some time, gather your thoughts, and feel free to share your concerns when you get their ear at the right time. I'm sure they have much to share and know that stake holders are concerned with the phase that the company is in. Since you're taking the time and making the effort to participate in the annual meeting make sure you work toward gaining as much information as you can so you can make the decisions that are best for yourself regarding you investment. Obviously the number one reason for attending. I think an open rational conversation will work better for you than a shot across the bow with your authorized share vote.


    Remember, you're among a group with common interests and everyone there is looking for facts as you are. Answering hard questions is part of their job.
    17 Sep 2013, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Well said ii.
    17 Sep 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Rugged, glad to hear you're going to the Meeting. Years past these things got people excited around here. Sadly, I think Maya and many who knew Axion through him have moved on to other investments. I have faint hope that a news tidbit might slip out next week but I decided to put my travel money into more bottom feeding as I am one who came to this story too soon. I envy those who have near 10 cent purchases and I'm trying to get a few crumbs myself.
    17 Sep 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • If the creek don't rise I'll be there next Thursday.
    17 Sep 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • I have planned on being there (time off from work) but may not be able to attend.
    17 Sep 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • I intend to be there.
    17 Sep 2013, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • John, Been a long time for you since you stepped on holy ground. Enjoy.
    17 Sep 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • I keep planning on going one of these years, but something always gets in the way of my plans. My daughter started year round school this year and her first break starts this week, so since my wife also works, I'll be home with my daughter instead of being at the meeting. Can't seem to convince the wife that it would be an educational trip for her at 5 yrs old! ;-)
    17 Sep 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • >Lab Tech ... That's too bad. I remember when both my kids were 4 & 5 and they knew I was going somewhere they would meet me at the door with a bag packed. I took them to work with me in Oregon, New Mexico, Penn, Ireland, Spain and few other places by the time they were 7 & 8. Car, plane or train mattered not to them.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • I'll be at the meeting as well.


    Last year people gathered in the lobby of the Hampton Inn late in the afternoon of the day of the meeting. Some folks went out to dinner that night as well as a bar near the hotel.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Yepper, he's got the background.


    Johnson Controls adds executive to focus on acquisitions


    "Prior to joining Johnson Controls, Jackson worked for 20 years as a business consultant, ultimately serving as senior vice president and board member of Booz & Company"

    17 Sep 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder if he speaks Chinese...


    Just reading about JCI pouring resources into new facilities in China.
    18 Sep 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • TB, Gotta go where there is growth and people have money to spend. I suspect we'll see some additional Chinese acquisitions by JCI.
    18 Sep 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • At the current .13 price, AXPW's market cap fully diluted post PIPE issues is somewhere around $25 million.


    Question for everybody: If Axion had been a private company for the last 10 years of R&D and only was doing its IPO now, priced to a market cap of $75 million, or triple today's price, would you buy the stock? Would you be excited to own it at that valuation? All the news being the same, the relationships, etc.


    I just see some of these cockamamie IPOs and acquisitions going for half a billion or a billion dollars and shake my head. OTOH, the fact that markets can be so inefficient is where the opportunity lies.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:51 AM Reply Like


    AllCell Automotive introduces self-cooling 48V Li-ion micro-hybrid battery
    18 Sep 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks D-inv, Interesting comments regarding using PCM to cool the pack.
    18 Sep 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Better DCA and low maintenance. Hmmm.


    Applied Energy Solutions and AllCell Launch Lithium-ion Material Handling Battery System


    "More and more material handling equipment manufacturers are finding that lithium-ion battery systems offer important benefits compared to lead acid systems. Faster and more efficient charging allows operators to do away with extra batteries and battery swapping equipment while simultaneously saving money on electrical bills. Lithium-ion batteries are also virtually maintenance free because the electrolyte level does not need to be monitored, leading to further operational savings."

    18 Sep 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • OK, finally matched the all time low .125...


    Now we see if a new low is in the immediate future.


    Good journey to all those traveling to New Castle. I will join the many who wait for word from the attendees...


    Frankly, I am not expecting ground shaking news, particularly since I do not believe this confab is (literally) the "earnings call" where TG promised news about sales.


    Still, we could hear something worthwhile.


    (Lurking at .123 again...)
    18 Sep 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • >RA . . As previously stated, my due diligence skills are poor to none. That said, yes I would buy today for the same reasons I have been buying all the way down from 1.22. I believe this is a game changing technology, I believe management has maintained enough intellectual and financial control of the the technology, and I believe they are proceeding in a manner with potential customers that is likely to give me a return on my investment and hopefully a handsome return. Spec investment always, as per VW, my grandchildren's college funds are placed elsewhere.


    18 Sep 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks geopark! I too would buy at a $75 mil valuation, or triple the current price. So I think it's a screaming bargain now! At $150 mil I might only buy a small stake since no sales yet outside of testing purposes.


    I'm 100% sure that PbC has compelling uses in various applications that will crush the competitors performance wise. Just the things Andy Claypole has said about the PbC's performance in their trucks alone. And the fact the ePower last March signed an +exclusive+ 5 year agreement with Axion says a lot.


    My only performance concern is durability. We know PbC is far more durable than AGM under very demanding conditions but just how much more is the question: if a trucker has to replace a $20,000 battery string every 5+ years is one thing, if every 3 years is quite another. However the $20,000 price tag might come down a lot -- that's another moving piece.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • RA ... Durability concern is an issue that I feel Axion is remiss about allaying. It has a PC that has been connected to the PGM since November 2011 and thus should have a relatively robust record of performance over a 22 month period. Demonstration of PbC longevity accompanies (or does not) that performance record.


    Inquiring minds want to know how well the PC-at-New-Castle PbCs are holding up and charge/discharge cycles they have been subjected to.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Well said RA, thanks. I think 3X would be in the neighborhood of my pause point also for continued accumulation.


    Your durability concern is well thought out also. It seems to me this discovery will only happen 'in the real world' and so yes, for me too this is a concern.


    I like epower for many of the same reasons I like Axion, with committed management at the top of the list. Will likely add it to my spec portfolio as well when/after it goes public.


    good investing . . geopark
    18 Sep 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • RA, i think the delays to market caught everyone by surprise, otherwise i don't imagine going public early. that said, we are still looking now at a company makings things to sell (bye development) with negligible debt and some big fish on the line.


    so, yeah, i am happy i own even with a cost basis 60% higher. risk/reward looks better today than it did when i invested... the plant is worth something worse case, lol.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: The 2.5K cycles (thx for reminding Iindelco!) to 100% DoD and back should allay any fears about lifteime where range is something like 20% - 80%, which ISTR is the range for automotive apps?


    And there was a very large number (100K?) early on in the BMW/AXPW testing?


    Fuzzy memory here ...


    18 Sep 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • If this is the screaming bargain that you think it is, the investment world does not seem to agree. In the last capital raise to the PIPErs, they basically sold a third of the company for $10M and that was the best they could get. Let's hope that the investing world wakes up to the true value before they need to do another raise next year.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • >Retired Aviator ... I think the fact that Norfolk finally, after all these years, has come out a practically endorsed Axion's PbC as the battery of choice. That says about all you need to know about durability. At least until many more years pass and a better calender based wear factor can statistically be had. I'm quite sure Norfolk Southern has shaken, banged, bumped and electrically stressed this battery enough to simulate whatever time frame they consider a good value. When it comes to hard living a truck has nothing on a working locomotive.


    Think about it. What is a little shock wave generated by a little 40 ton bump at 60 mph compared to 200 tons (avg 10 load railcars) bumping you forward or jerking you backward at 60 or 15 mph. Electrically, the truck is kicking around, what(?), 190 kW in a string (I honestly forget what ePower is generating) while Norfolk has been pumping 1,200 kW into their string (for years) and is apparently happy with it enough to not drop the whole idea. Remember, also, Norfolk was (might still be) using batteries made prior to the said to be greatly improved sheeting line. Hand made electrodes. Still it is a justified concern because the Axion PbC has never been put to work in the wild. I just don't see electro-mechanical durability as a large concern. I wonder more about the calender.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Excellent post DRich. --- IIRC, based on examination of batteries during ePower's experiments, Axion has felt comfortable gradually increasing their warranty, and is now up to 3-4 years or so under ePower type conditions.
    18 Sep 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • "I'm quite sure Norfolk Southern has shaken, banged, bumped and electrically stressed this battery enough to simulate whatever time frame they consider a good value. When it comes to hard living a truck has nothing on a working locomotive."


    I would be surprised if these tests have not gone on for years at this point. At least the electrical cycling is likely to have been ongoing for that long.


    "Axion has felt comfortable gradually increasing their warranty"


    True that there is nothing like being in use to confirm the lab results.
    18 Sep 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • JP has used the words "warranty period expectations", which I'm guessing is more accurate when looking at warranty semantics. --- I'm not sure Axion has a definite warranty period at this time.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • >nogoodslacker ... All Axion needs is a customer(s). A little production would probably get Mr. Market's attention but I'd prefer a stable long holding investor. Axion doesn't need much either way. Without it, next year will look just like this year ... but less as we wait and wait and wait and wait for those "Big Fish" to decide ... something.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • NGS: MGMT sold a third of the company to short term financial flippers, to borrow JP's term, "They don't buy green bananas!" If the PIPErs are selling their shares as fast as they receive them, who is buying from them? I bought some today as almost every week all summer, and I suspect other Axionistas have as well. If the "bargain" shares land in a steady hand, it's a good thing!
    Sure, the PIPE deal was constructed with monstrous unfairness; the PIPErs are assured 15%, minimum, due to the discount, and have unlimited upside that pending announcements may bring.


    Later, we can have a good laugh at the short sighted PIPErs who couldn't distinguish between unripe fruit and pure gold! They are sharks, don't pity them!
    18 Sep 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv,


    Yes absolutely we have not been given enough information on durability records to date. The ePower truck also has an Axion data logger, so why no official report on that record either? Virtually our only info on durability is unofficial, anecdotal reports from JP, regarding chiefly ePower. While I trust him, I too feel management is quite remiss in this area.


    Ultimately, though, my concern is not about the batteries holding up for 22 months but more like what happens with DCA at 60 months and beyond? The applications for PbC are not at all compromising in that they demand fast charge. Buyers of large strings for trucks and trains will view payback time as key, and that is related directly to lifespan/replacement cost.


    We'll have to wait and see. But if there are signs of significant problems at 22 months and we are being kept in the dark about it, that would be my biggest fear.
    19 Sep 2013, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,


    2500 deep cycles without problems is certainly a good thing, but by no means 100% assuring IMO. Cycling is not the same thing as time just sitting at PSOC, which may cause degradation, esp on the lead-acid side(??). Here's the 2011 automotive stop/start Axion white paper with my own markups: Please humor me as I play devil's advocate here and argue against the PbC, which I view as healthy:


    The testing procedure started at 80% charge, then drained 48 amps for 60 seconds, followed by 300 amps for 1 second (starter simulation). Then the battery was recharged to 80% (about 40 seconds) to complete a cycle. After 500 of these cycles they let it sit for just 6 hours. By my calculation, 500 cycles including rest then spanned just 20 hours so it's a simulation that doesn't reflect real driving profiles where a car battery can sit overnight or for several days or weeks at much less than 80% SOC.


    Even in this accelerated idealized test simulation, you can see on the graph on page 6 that some unnamed issue developed at 40,000 cycles that curtailed DCA and thus spiked the charge time. To get past 40,000 cycles (day 66 by my math) their solution was to stop using the PbC to crank the starter saying, "The first long-term application of the DCA cycle test to PbC® batteries (the data shown in Figure 11) initially included the cranking discharge. However, evaluation of this early PbC® battery DCA performance suggested the optimal micro-hybrid architecture involved assignment of the hotel load and cranking discharges to separate function-specific batteries."


    In other words, the 2011 PbC couldn't handle hotel load plus engine cranking beyond 40,000 cycles without a serious compromise of DCA (66th day of simulation/3 years idealized equivalent drive time, much less in the real world). So their solution was to remove the starter cranking load and have a second (lead-acid) battery handle that. Apparently this is good enough performance for BMW(??). What about the other OEMs that were interested in PbC for microhybrid but we haven't heard anything about in quite a while? My question is whether improvements since 2011 have mitigated the issue at 40,000 cycles (day 66)?


    John indicates that there were in fact improvements made on the positive electrode. So I'd really like to know how the current 2013 PbC's test profile compares side by side with the 2011 test.
    19 Sep 2013, 04:14 AM Reply Like
  • nogood,


    When I was green to investing/trading many years ago, it bothered me a lot more when the market disagreed with me. Now I have seen so many foolish episodes in the financial markets that when Mr Market disagrees with me I'm not much bothered by it.
    19 Sep 2013, 04:21 AM Reply Like
  • DRich,


    Thanks for your valuable insights. I'm less concerned about electro-mechanical (jarring, etc) than chemical degradation (esp the lead-acid positive electrode; "calendar" as you put it). I think that given the price point of $350 (times quantity in string), buyers will need PbC to perform to a very high DCA standard for more than just a few years. Even a 25% loss of DCA performance in year 3, for example, could be a pretty big deal as that would mean significantly less capture of regen braking energy and consequently less fuel/carbon savings.


    <<Norfolk finally, after all these years, has come out a practically endorsed Axion's PbC>>


    Playing devil's advocate again, it's possible, though not likely IMO, that BMW and NS are simply greenwashing -- they may have determined that PbC doesn't work for their needs, but by continuing to work with Axion and publishing promising statements they can show regulators that they are doing the best they can to reduce carbon. It's one possible explanation for "testing" dragging on seemingly forever.


    The bright star here though is ePower. ePower has no need to convince any regulators of anything as their entire business model is truly green by its nature.
    19 Sep 2013, 04:40 AM Reply Like
  • Wayne,


    Can you point to any official Axion statement that they are warrantying for 3-4 years?
    19 Sep 2013, 04:46 AM Reply Like
  • RA, Thanks for your thoughts in this and your subsequent posts. Just wanted to make one cautionary point concerning ePower's data captured thus far on the data logger. This is ePower's property and not Axion information. As such we can ask John or Axion if they can share any data gathered on medium term durability but can't be too critical of Axion if it can't be shared. (Believe me, I'm more than critical of Axion and their information sharing.)


    Thus far we've been very fortunate to have John's affiliation with ePower give us access to information at ePower that many companies would not share. Beats trying to peer though scratches in blacked out windows for clues. We owe John and ePower a worlds of thanks for sharing some information on their program.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • With the way the truck is being used by ePower, it hasn't accumulated enough load miles to provide a reasonable basis for a durability assessment. That step won't kick off in earnest until the third-generation prototypes have been built and fuel economy tested, and units for the durability testing fleet have been put into the hands of users.
    19 Sep 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • With respect to performance (and durability) of PbCs in Axion's Newcastle PowerCube, there is no NDA in the way of disclosures. The batteries were made by Axion and installed in an Axion developed and funded device.
    19 Sep 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • RA - While I agree for the most part with your statement, the flip side is that sometimes the market is right and my analysis is just wrong. Deciding when that occurs is important.


    "When I was green to investing/trading many years ago, it bothered me a lot more when the market disagreed with me. Now I have seen so many foolish episodes in the financial markets that when Mr Market disagrees with me I'm not much bothered by it."
    19 Sep 2013, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • >Retired Aviator ... I wish I could address your DCA anxiety but I'm not even close to understanding electrical engineering. My friend, the EE, seems to think that the Penn State refresh algorithm quite possibly might be the solution to this problem since it is the Pb plates that seem at fault, not the C capacitive plate



    What seems to worry you is that which worries the Auto Incustry also. The evidence of that is seen in the Continental AG supercapacitor plus battery device which is the closest analogy on performance & price to the self-contained Axion PbC. This can be compared within an automobile but is useless in a train & I suspect a heavy truck as well. My EE friend tell me that there is no way either a capacitor or a Li-on battery can endure the energy of the standing wave shocks over a long time span. It is something to speculate about the Axion Carbon plates as well but they are a more simple construction and likely more durable. Both will degrade their DCA ability. Hey ... things wear out.


    Which system last longer? I don't know. Which is most economical ROI? I don't know. I can tell you, from our spitballing estimates, that Axion's PbC is at least 1/3 the initial material cost ... probably less because we've no idea what we left out or how much ancillary systems (cooling, management, controllers, etc) might cost and the PbC is about 1/6 the cost of a diesel genset. I will leave it to you to extend the guessing game from here.
    19 Sep 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • RA, here's a short clarification post I made:

    19 Sep 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • For those who attend the annual meeting I can say that last year, meeting the other Axionistas was a pleasure. Most stayed at the Hampton which has a breakfast room that makes a nice gathering spot during the day and evening. The front desk was helpful in placing a sign up that helped gather us together.


    The dinner together the night before the meeting was a good experience.


    I found all the Axion board members and Executive team very approachable at the annual meeting , at the plant, and during the evening cocktail party, held at the local Golf and Country Club.


    Good Wishes to all who are attending this year.
    18 Sep 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • I booked at the Hampton and will be arriving Wednesday evening and leaving Friday morning. Time to finally kick the tires.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry I will not get to see you this year. Enjoy the trip.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Likewise Futurist. Would be interesting if they had an ePower truck at the meeting for a demo.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, Pity you're not going as you could have lived up to your moniker and taken a smartphone that can stream live video via some relay to all us non-attendees! :)
    19 Sep 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Triple: I'm certain that Mr. Granville meant November when he made his promise of news and agree that there won't be a press-release type news coming in advance of or at the annual meeting.


    I think first time attendees will learn a lot, and I think I'll learn enough to justify the trip.


    A key question for me relates to what retiredaviator and geopark are alluding to. Thinking of my past investment as a sunk cost, is Axion a good investment justifying additional investment capital at a market cap of $26m (200m shares at the current price)?


    Given what we know about the technology, the answer would seem to be a resounding yes. However, you could fill volumes with case studies where superior technology failed in the marketplace and Axion's execution to date presents an entirely mixed-bag.


    The company has done a very good job developing its technology at a very reasonable cost ($70m if I recall). However, the company does seem to have had little success on the sale and marketing side despite it would seem, being in the right place at the right time (the boom in alternative energy and energy efficiency). Nevertheless, such a case study could point to the headwinds Axion faces in being the odd-man out with a lead-acid solution to a problem the government and most stakeholders clearly want to solve with lithium-ion. Also, Axion's technology is best suited for a set up of applications (rapid and repeated movement of comparatively small amounts of energy) that did not exist and will take many years to emerge and be deployed in scale.


    My goal for attending the meeting is to get a better sense of whether Axion is making progress against these headwinds and if the company has made any course corrections given the unanticipated slow progress. I am also hoping to spend more time with the people involved to get a better sense of whether they can be successful. Finally, last year I learned an awful lot from the Axionistas at the meeting and even though I don't expect mayascribe or RickK to be there this year, hopefully JP and others will present new and interesting learning opportunities.
    18 Sep 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks AP and others. I won't be able to attend (time and distance for me) but as has been said I will be looking forward to commentary here from those of you who do. Maybe next year.


    18 Sep 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • At the risk of sounding like a grinch, TG did not make a "promise" of reporting new sales on the next call -- the word he used was a "prediction" of sales. Hope that doesn't deflate anyone's hopes too much -- one could argue they've been 'predicting' sales for a long time.
    19 Sep 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • From the Q2 transcript.


    "I never promised orders on a timetable basis before. But, I will predict that we will have significant orders to talk about on our next earning call."
    20 Sep 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • We will see if he lives up to the prediction, but my gut tells me he will deliver on this one...
    20 Sep 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Even tho I do not like TG nor have faith in AXPW long term:


    I can not imagine a CEO making this prediction without having proposals on his desk to back it up....the question is how big and is it recurring revenue?


    This statement alone is not enough for me to buy the stock with the PIPER's still around, but is enough to keep me watching it.
    20 Sep 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fair enough, LT. I think it's a sensible strategy at this point. I may deploy some cash in if it breaks below the 10c
    20 Sep 2013, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... With the "transition" to a commercial entity, ink on paper is what matters to me ... little else.
    20 Sep 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, Given the past success rate of hope =ing reality why would you think differently.
    20 Sep 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Battery Executives See Price Drops Ahead


    " Brian Kesseler, the president of Johnson Controls Inc.'s JCI -1.71% Power Solutions division said cell costs may indeed fall by half, but overall costs of battery packs, which include the control systems that surround the energy source, are unlikely to decline that quickly without standardization across different auto makers.


    "The real issue is the cost of the total system," he said. With each auto maker using a customized system to run its electric vehicles, it's unlikely to overall cost of an electric vehicle is likely to decline dramatically."

    18 Sep 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Regarding PbC durability, here's a JP post from 8-15-13...


    "With the AGM batteries ePower was replacing failed batteries with melted terminals on a regular basis because the batteries couldn't withstand the pulse power from regenerative braking. They've spent the last several months trying to induce failures in the PbC battery string and failed. There have been no battery failures and no loss of performance. The sample batteries that have been sent back to Axion for tear-down analysis have apparently been good enough that Axion keeps extending their warranty period expectations."
    18 Sep 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Wayne. I remember smiling when I first read that JP comment.


    The reason I keep hounding the durability/longevity question is because I believe it holds the *key* to success or failure. I do hope attendees at the annual meeting will ask tough questions about any improvements in durability since the 2011 lab tests. (And why the DCA dropped off sharply at 40,000 cycles in the white paper? Something happened there and I don't believe we've been told what.)


    If we can unearth assuring information that DCA performance will remain quite high after several years of hard use, I believe that commercial success is a matter of when, not if. But if PbC performance degrades significantly by year 3 or 4 of heavy use, I think it might mean back to the drawing board (unless the price of PbC can come down far enough to justify the expense for end users).


    One thought I have that I hope any engineers will respond to:


    Supposing that the lead electrode degrades and weakens the battery after a few years, is it possible to "recondition" a PbC battery? If the carbon electrode is the big cost factor and it remains in good shape, how about Axion opening up a used, weakened PbC and just swapping in a brand new lead electrode along with fresh electrolyte? Is this plausible at reasonable cost?
    19 Sep 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • >Retired Aviator ... The Penn State algorithm, previously linked, fairly well answered your last paragraph. The PbC is and remains a lower cost device than something like the Continental AG supercap + battery device or any of the current analogous solutions I am aware of. The PbC will never be as low in price as a legacy Pb VRLAB or AGM.


    The durability you are concerned about are just as unknown in all available technologies. All PR aside. It's a new world
    19 Sep 2013, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • RA
    "If PbC performance degrades significantly by year 3 or 4 of heavy use, I think it might mean back to the drawing board (unless the price of PbC can come down far enough to justify the expense for end users). "


    You would have a question about replacing something that over 3-4 year lifespan saves you several the times the cost in fuel?


    Supposing that the lead electrode degrades and weakens the battery after a few years, is it possible to "recondition" a PbC battery?


    Yes according to Ed Buiel (Ex CTO of Axion)
    <PbC batteries also benefit from being equalized. We found that after 100,000 miles if you could just charge the batteries for 36-48h continuously, then most of the capacity could be recovered as you break up sulfate on the positive electrode. Automobile companies wouldn't consider this but I bet the ePower truck could have such an option to just plug it in for a few days when the truck was down in maintenance or just off the road (weekend?). This could greatly extend the life. >


    If the carbon electrode is the big cost factor and it remains in good shape, how about Axion opening up a used, weakened PbC and just swapping in a brand new lead electrode along with fresh electrolyte? Is this plausible at reasonable cost?


    As reasonable as for any other car/truck type LA battery. Which is to say not at all.
    Of course as battery strings will be the case for NS and ePower, likely it is not a problem. Also as BMW has not dropped Axion, I doubt that is a problem for them either.


    Switching a battery out of a string is as easy as changing a car battery. Also the battery automatically adjusts its charge to equal other batteries in the string in a few charge-discharge cycles.


    Also by Ed Buiel


    <There is at least one study that I know Enders presented that showed when the batteries were intentionally connected at different SOC and cycled together, the conformed to the same SOC. This is truly unique to the PbC technology. AGM and lead acid will have some overcharge tolerance due to gasing and recombination but PbC seems to be very good here. This is important for many applications and eliminates the need for expensive and complicated charge clamping BMS systems like what is needed for lithium ion and supercapacitors. >
    19 Sep 2013, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • RA, Back a ways in this forum Ed Buiel, the former CTO at Axion, indicated that the PbC battery is also advantaged by a refresh cycle. IIRC is was something like raising the PbC charge to full SOC and letting it soak at that level for around 24 hours. He indicated this was quite advantageous and again IIRC it had to do with something occurring on the positive lead based electrode which can also suffer from sulfation.


    Maybe someone that has better search capability in this forum than I can find it and link it for you so the actual metrics of what he relayed are straight.


    PS Tearing down the PbC battery and changing out the positive plates might be possible for a highly motivated tinkerer but would not be advisable. Nor would it be economically feasible for a business to accomplish.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator> As I recall, the initial test through 40,000 cycles was a BMW protocol that was completed prior to the joint BMW-Axion presentation at the 2010 European Lead Battery Conference.



    Once the original test protocol was completed the batteries were taken off test and set aside.


    At some later point in time, the parties decided to put the batteries back on test to see how long the DCA performance would hold up before the batteries started showing substantial deterioration. So I think what you're looking at is a successfully completed test through 40,000 cycles, an interruption of the testing protocol, and then a continuation of the testing protocol for another 60,000 cycles.


    I'm going from memory on this one and can't point to a document, but I do remember that the original test was completed and a follow-on test was then added to the program.


    Durability is a very odd issue in lead-acid because the charge acceptance performance of competitive products goes to hell in a handbasket within a couple months while the PbC is chugging away without significant capacity loss after several years.


    In most cases, a customer can get more data from laboratory testing of a battery than it can from vehicle testing because most vehicles sit idle for over 23 hours a day. It's an important issue for NS and it will be an important issue for ePower because they both need three to five years of battery life with heavy daily cycling, but you can rest assured that NS has carefully evaluated durability issues in over three years of double redundant testing for their duty cycle. The fear that you might have thought of an issue that evaded engineering teams from NS, Penn State and Axion strikes me as a bit misplaced.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Froggey. That's it.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • John,


    As my fuzzy memory recalls, I thought the 40K cycle number was where Axion got with the PbC without a separate starter battery. Then when they added small starter battery they were able to get to 100K?
    19 Sep 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • I believe it was the other way around where the first 40,000 cycles included both starter and hotel loads while the last 60,000 were for hotel loads only.


    It's very clear from the ELBC presentation that they did the first 40,000 cycles using the entire micro-hybrid simulation cycle, but like you I recall a small change in the duty cycle for the follow-on testing.


    Glad to see that somebody else remembered hearing something close to the same thing.
    19 Sep 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • John,


    I think we are saying the same thing, and thus, I have more confidence in our collective memories.


    First 40K PbC handled both starter and hotel loads (no separate starter battery)


    Additional 60K hotel loads only (included a small starter battery to handle starting)


    IIRC, this is when we first learned that any system would be a two battery system rather than just a PbC.
    19 Sep 2013, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • DRich,


    Thanks again~ I reread the Penn State article. I guess I still wonder if a PbC can be reconditioned, cut open and the lead electrode replaced, assuming the carbon electrode hasn't deteriorated.


    I guess you're right -- even the engineers on the PbC project don't know its longer term performance. That's one reason I'm wondering if it's at least theoretically possible to replace the lead electrode at reasonable cost by cutting open the battery.
    19 Sep 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • RA < "I'm wondering if it's at least theoretically possible to replace the lead electrode at reasonable cost by cutting open the battery. "


    Perhaps in the alternative one could recover the negative electrode for installation in an otherwise new PbC and recycle the rest of the old PbC?
    19 Sep 2013, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • froggey,


    Thanks for the Ed Buell material. I had not seen it before!


    Yes anything that saves several times its cost is a no brainer.
    Somebody's cost savings projections are just that, though, and ePower's for example are created for the purpose of selling their system. I'm not saying they're lying about the payback period but their projections could be a best case scenario with the worst case not so rosy. It's not just the battery cost, but the series hybrid conversion too. Plus a lot of truckers I could see balk at a $20,000 battery pack they know they'll have to replace every 3 or 4 years regardless of fuel savings exceeding the cost. Not all people are calculatingly rational. Many people have poorly insulated homes because the outlay for insulation and tight windows is painful, even if it is all recouped and then some by lower heating bills.


    19 Sep 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • John,


    No of course I don't think longevity hasn't occurred to the engineers. That's crazy. I just have yet to see any assurances (or data) from Axion suggesting they expect these batteries to have a useful life of "X" years. Nothing. If it's there I just haven't seen it or heard it from the horse's mouth. Maybe there's a reason they are shy about making longevity predictions?


    You indicated, "the PbC is chugging away without significant capacity loss after several years", but you mean several _simulated_ years in the lab, no? In the S/S 2011 test, 3 simulated driving years was only 66 days in real time by my calculation. Why so sure that it's fair to assume there's no difference? Even the white paper (I referred to in the post above) concedes that the lab test conditions were much less demanding than the real world.


    "most vehicles sit idle for over 23 hours a day" --------> Yes, that's the time that worries me, especially when state of charge is low.


    That Buell indicates a refresh charge to break up sulfation is easy and effective is fantastic, but that only solves sulfation problems, not other types of deterioration around the positive electrode.


    "you can rest assured that NS has carefully evaluated durability issues in over three years of double redundant testing for their duty cycle"


    I do hope so. I worry about this because the only path I see to AXPW stock ultimately being a losing investment from the $.13 level is the path leading to ugly surprises on the PbC longevity front. I do apologize if it seems like I'm beating a dead horse to some!
    19 Sep 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,


    It was a lab simulation that had no actual starter motor to crank. From initial 80% SOC, they drained 48 amps for 60 seconds to simulate hotel load at a stop event. Then they drained 300 amps for 1 second to simulate cranking the starter. Then they recharged to 80%, noting the DCA and the charging time needed to get there.


    After 40,000 cycles they decided to discontinue the starter simulation of 300 amps @ 1 second, apparently because the PbC was having some trouble with it. Yes, at that point they decided a 2 battery system was best. Here's the white paper (with my markups):
    19 Sep 2013, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • "Plus a lot of truckers I could see balk at a $20,000 battery pack they know they'll have to replace every 3 or 4 years regardless of fuel savings exceeding the cost. Not all people are calculatingly rational. Many people have poorly insulated homes because the outlay for insulation and tight windows is painful, even if it is all recouped and then some by lower heating bills."


    :-) All a matter of discount rates applied by individuals. For some, a present dollar is much more valuable than a future dollar.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • That kind of absurd behavior might arise in the case of an owner operator, but it won't happen with medium and large fleet operators. They'll carefully weigh economics and regulatory benefits and make decisions based on their business needs. Our opinions on the issue won't matter to them.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Just a reminder that with the economy drifting down, stocks are in a schizoid mode. Flashy internet and software heavy new stocks seem to be doing well. Investors are otherwise only interested in hunting for dividends. Now, even dividend heavy energy and industrial stocks are flat to bumpy.


    Given this condition, any COMPANY that has an innovative physical product is being held to extremely strict standards of performance. Show me the savings/money! is the theme of the day.


    Is it any wonder that AXPW stock is shivering in the dark? This market is allowing NO slack for new products/companies without serious demonstration of dollar yield. Not technology proof, but sales and profits.


    So what else should I invest in? Emerging markets? PMs? Dried and sealed cans of survival food? CDs? (chuckle). Axion still looks good to me as a technology driven product company with high potential yield and reasonable risk. So I watch and wait.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • >siliconhillbilly ... It's FED day and the market has gone crazy with visions of "sugar plums" (safe year end bonuses) dancing in their heads. Actual work on real world economic activity has been averted ... again ... and upward distribution of assets can continue. All, still, sponsored by the 99% less fortunate folks and their descendants. Such rubes.


    We here in Villa Axion can breathe easy knowing we haven't lost money yet today ... but it is early. Looking good. Feeling good.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Hello all,
    I am curious as to how many more shares are left to be dumped by the PIPE. I apologize if this was mentioned already but the only thing I can find is when John stated that total outstanding could rise to 200M. That is about 65-67M more than is outstanding right now? Am I also to understand this is to occur before the end of Nov?


    Please correct me if I am wrong it would be much appreciated. I have been long AXPW since Aug /08. I was originally in at about $2.10/shr and have gotten my avg cost down to .23. I have been averaging down all this time and have accumulated quite a large sum of shares. For the past two months I have kept my powder dry and I will most likely double my holdings on my next few buys. This is why I would like to have some idea of what the downward pressure will be from here. .125 seems to be holding but if there are 60 to 70 million shares left to be dumped, it seems to me 30% lower from here would not be unreasonable.


    I look forward to any replies. My goal is to own 200K shares before mid 2014.
    P.S. I can not convey how appreciative I am for all the links and conversations on this site and in the earlier days with JP's contributions. Thank You All.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • The PIPE started with a series of nine installments due to the financiers. The first was due in early July and the first regular monthly payment was due at the beginning of September. With the way the pre-installment estimates work, the bulk of the stock for a particular installment is issued 20 trading days before the due date with a true-up on the installment date.


    We know that 18 million shares were issued between April 25 and August 7th, which would have included the July payment and the September pre-installment estimate. Another block of roughly 10 million shares would have been issued on September 1st for the September true-up and the October pre-installment estimate.


    I the price stays in the current range it will take about 70 million shares to clear the last seven installments, including the September true-up and the October pre-installment estimate. If the price goes up, it may take as few as 26.5 million shares to clear the balance. In any event, the share issuances will be spread over the next six months.
    18 Sep 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. That would work out just about right for my total share goal. Now this will only work if no other huge amount of shares will be needed next year. Sometimes I feel like I'm running on a submerged tread mill.
    18 Sep 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • For anyone interested. Interesting, on slide 29- lead-zinc UltraBatteries?


    Energy Storage R&D Activities at CSIRO


    Anand I. Bhatt | Research Team Leader
    31 st August 2013

    18 Sep 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco,


    Nice catch, even with your slide 29 direction, I kept reading 'over' it.


    LEAD-ZINC UltraBatteries, that's a new one for me!
    18 Sep 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1, I was quite surprised when I saw it. Unfortunately I don't know enough about electrochemistry to understand what they are trying to achieve. Maybe based on PowerGenix offerings more energy density. But this is pure ignorant speculation on my part and nothing more.
    19 Sep 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • ii, referring to page 5. Does that show that utrabattery #1 went thru about 37000 cycles before it failed?
    18 Sep 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Masi, One of the two units achieved about 370000. One more zero. I suspect these are shallow cycles. Maybe someone is familiar with EUCAR. I'll see if I can find something.
    18 Sep 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • This report from Furukawa describes the EUCAR test protocol in some detail in Section 2.2. The cycling is very rapid and very shallow.

    18 Sep 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • That whole presentation by Bhat and CSIRO is pretty impressive. Has Axion ever done a similar one? Allot of the projects seem to parallel the uses of our PbC battery.
    18 Sep 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • CSIRO stands for "Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation." It's the Australian government's equivalent of the basic research arm of the DOE. That's the big reason their R&D activities are so diverse.


    There's a good deal of technical information in the investor presentation on Axion's website. Axion's technical presentation from last September's European Lead Battery Conference is available here:

    18 Sep 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • I believe the more relevant question is how does this product line compare to Axion's and whose IP is it anyways? I presume that the selling point for Axion is the very high surface area of their carbon electrode?
    19 Sep 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick, I don't think Axion has IP in the carbon electrode other than process and in my opinion it was not wise for them to apply for a patent in this area. Too many ways to make minor changes getting around the patent even though it would still take time. Best to just keep it a trade secret.


    Their real patent is the mating of a carbon electrode with a lead positive electrode.
    19 Sep 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick> Lead-acid battery manufacturers have been fooling around with carbon additives in the negative electrode pastes for decades. The science is relatively well understood and it does offer some cycle life and durability advantages, but it's very much a middle ground solution because it does not significantly impact the formation of lead-sulfate crystals on the negative electrode, the principal cause of failure.


    The Ultrabattery is just one more attempt to augment the performance of lead-acid batteries by using a carbon electrode to carry half of the negative plate duty. While I've studiously avoided questions about whether the Ultrabattery infringes Axion's patents, Axion's former CTO clearly believes it does.


    Axion's approach is unique and heavily patented because it replaces the entire lead-based negative electrode with a carbon electrode assembly. That change fundamentally alters the chemistry within the cell, creates tremendous charge acceptance advantages and completely eliminates negative plate sulfation.


    There isn't another device on the planet in the same class as the PbC.
    19 Sep 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • The main incentive for getting those products discontinued then is not that they are a replacement for Axion PbC, but rather are giving potential customers a poor experience of the value of an advanced carbon-electrode lead-acid battery.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Although, perhaps the customers they discover and begin projects with will ultimately be compelled to test Axion PbC alongside UltraBattery, in which case they are doing some pro-bono marketing for Axion.
    20 Sep 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • John - now that's a classic worth holding onto:


    "There isn't another device on the planet in the same class as the PbC."
    20 Sep 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • I believe Eos Energy's zinc-air battery "Aurora" is in the same class no? Besides ZBB's EnerStore flow battery modules, the Powercube and the Aurora are the only next-gen plug and play platforms available for the grid, and the Powercube has the longest field testing record of the bunch. At $400 billion estimated market for grid storage in 2020, there's plenty of fish for several players.
    20 Sep 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • OT,


    Right now I am very happy that I bought into KNDI a couple years ago, around the same time as I was buying into AXPW! Hopefully I will be watching AXPW take off soon like KNDI is doing this morning. The announcement of government subsidies has given the stock some fuel!
    19 Sep 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Nice that KNDI only has 37M shares outstanding.
    19 Sep 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Great time (for them) to dilute.
    19 Sep 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Great time (for them) to dilute?
    19 Sep 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • And they have cash and soon their revenues should be exploding if the story unfolds as predicted! The CEO has put them on a path to realize their very ambitious business plan!
    19 Sep 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • It is amazing what the right press release can do to a stocks price!


    Come on Axion, we could definitely appreciate a press release with some punch in it!


    19 Sep 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • Hey, what the hey? Sorry, I only wanted this one time (another SA hiccough).
    19 Sep 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • TB, Nope it's a TB hiccup. If you didn't change anything in the statement it would not post twice based on my experience.
    19 Sep 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • I used the edit function. Should not have double posted. This has been a recurring (minor) issue for years.


    HTL and some of the rest of us used to work with support to try to get things fixed, but I think we all gave up long ago. He used to have an extensive list...


    My point was that it wasn't intended to be a (near) duplicate post. Its a waste of bandwidth.
    20 Sep 2013, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun, Well we better get something because it's obvious buyer fatigue is setting in.


    PS, Careful with the Chinese. You might make money on the trade but by and large it's a horrible place to invest. They are not prone to letting foreigners leave with money in their pockets and stealing from foreigners is not treated very harshly from what I can see. Think of them as big banking and Wall Street. Oops. :-(
    19 Sep 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Exide Cali.


    Stock has been on a tear upwards of late.


    Battery recycler ordered to cut production

    19 Sep 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • I'm pretty sad about XIDEQ. After trading in and out several times and netting 20% each time, I sold out and decided to focus on other things, non-trading. I didn't want to follow what I assumed to be a drawn out bankruptcy process. I sold at 15 cents....


    Let that be a lesson to those trading AXPW!
    19 Sep 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, at least u dodged the plummet bullet. Some folks were predicting a double and triple from $3. Even at 50 cents, those folks are still down 80%.
    19 Sep 2013, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • The PIPErs anthem.

    19 Sep 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco: Their tribute to us.



    EDIT: hang in 'till the end.
    19 Sep 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, Thanks, I'd not seen it. Hope that wasn't an ePower ride. I'd hate to get taken out efficiently!
    19 Sep 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • I never knew investing in nano-caps was this nerve-testing of an experience....:(


    Come on TG, some news please!!! :)
    19 Sep 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • HTL


    Was looking forward to your daily analysis today as my $12.50 bid is picking up shares and wanted to follow the action


    Understand if you are worn out by the process


    if so where and how can I get the daily trading action


    Lets move from worn out - I told you do
    19 Sep 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Dlmca: Speaking of worn out ...


    Recall that I had a computer break and needed 9/6 data, which was safe on a disk but not accessible.


    Order parts, install and ready to go when ...


    Wrong adapter to access HD was sent.


    RMA, await part and while doing that continue setting up system on new mainboard. All set to go, but for adapter and ...


    NIC (network interface) doesn't work anymore. what did I do (many hours figuring that out).


    NOTHING. Defective MB, started throwing errors on memory during memtest overnight runs.


    RMA ...


    Well, I didn't want to fight all that and also try to get anything useful up based on partial data.


    I am worn out, but not from snagging data.


    Good news! Correct adapter arrived today, so if the mainboard will hold together for a couple hours I'll have my data available and get caught up this weekend on another computer.


    Then when the new mainboard arrives ...


    High-level quick take: <$0.12 still seems likely to me somewhere along the line. But, as mentioned, incomplete stuff as yet.


    19 Sep 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like