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  • Axion Power Concentrator 272: Oct. 4 '13: APMarshall AGM Notes; 10Q Filing For Q2; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives 339 comments
    Oct 4, 2013 7:16 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Notes on the 926/13 AGM with thanks to APMarshall62
    The following is primarily a compilation of my copious notes from the 9/26/13 meeting with a lesser amount of my own analysis added (it should be clear which is which). I made little effort to edit it down as one would when writing an article since I expect you all want as much raw information as possible.

    It is mostly chronological but there are places where I pulled together information on the same point from various events. I believe I've made that clear but have probably missed some instances. Also, I discuss some points in depth in paragraph format. For specific notes that I don't discuss in depth I use bullet points to separate them from the text and hopefully make this easier to read.

    The main events for which I compiled notes include a Wednesday night dinner with John Petersen and several folks from ePower (also three of us Axionistas), the formal part of the annual meeting, the presentations (Vani Dantam and Mike Romeo) and subsequent Q&A that included Tom Granville, the two plant tours (battery facility and electrode facility), the ePower demo, and finally, the closing cocktail party.

    ePower Dinner:
    Jay Bowman, ePower's founder, struck me as a classic entrepreneur: He wouldn't fit in the corporate world but is smart, creative, and driven. He didn't share a lot of new info, but I thought it was very interesting how he described his system's interaction with the battery.

    Essentially, he said that a graph of the battery usage would show second by second changes even at steady speed on level terrain. That was music to my ears because the more charge/discharge events the better the fit for the PbC.

    Note: The next day Tom Granville mentioned that ePower had reported dramatic improvement in the performance of the automated carbon sheeting based batteries (the improvement was so dramatic because of the very specific nature of the ePower application with the very rapid give/take of power). I didn't fully understand the limited explanation he gave - it was something I hadn't heard previously. Bottom line of this side point was that the ePower application seems like an absolutely perfect fit for the PbC battery. In fact, much better than even the locomotive application, which doesn't have the extremely rapid fluctuations in giving and receiving power.

    Jay also mentioned that the ability of the PbC to receive charge was the key differentiator vs. Lithium ion.

    • AGM batteries needed to be plugged in for over ten hours after only a few hours of driving. However, even with this accommodation, they only lasted 4,000 - 5,000 miles before degrading.
    • The PbC state of charge can fluctuate 15-20% say during a sustained climb. I was glad to see the relatively deep maximum discharge vs. the 1-2% we'd see in an auto stop-start application.
    • Jay Bowman said that truckers hate batteries and he didn't think truckers would do the 36 hour trickle charge once every 6-12 months to top off the batteries. However, he said Axion keeps upping the life expectancy of the battery in this application and believes it will last for the entire four year rebuild cycle without the benefit of the trickle top-off.

    Jay spoke at length about the new 6.7 liter engine (the first conversion is in process). In steady state, the generator needs to produce 72 - 74 Kw of energy to cruise at low highway speed (55mph I assume) on a level road. The 4 liter engine produces about 93Kw after discounting the parasitic loads.

    The Cummins 6.7 liter engine (used in pickup trucks) produces 240hp or approximately 128Kw after discounting parasitic loads. It burns 6.8 gallons per hour when powering a 120Kw generator. So, if the truck is driven at 68mph it should average nearly 10 miles per gallon. The dramatic increase in available energy indicated by these calculations is the reason Jay is very confident that the 6.7 liter engine will not be underpowered.

    Yesterday, John Petersen e-mailed me some additional information along these lines. I was particularly concerned about the truck still being underpowered since the system will still use the same 115Kw generator (can be over-rated to 128Kw for 15 minutes per hour) and the same 150hp motor (can be over-rated to 380hp for up to 15 minutes per hour). While the horsepower rating is a little less than a conventional rig, the torque from the electric motor more than offsets that concern at low speeds and largely offsets it at higher speeds. He did say that fitting in a larger electric motor would be difficult given space constraints in the tractor frame.

    Note: See Vani Dantam's discussion of hybrid and EV trucks for more info on the above topics.

    We discussed ePower's plan to build ten demonstration tractors. They would be delivered to key trucking companies to use as they wish, for free, for a limited period (a few weeks or months) before they would be asked to lease or purchase the tractor. While Jay was very clear that he didn't know how long the companies would want to test the rig before placing purchase orders, he believed that the test period could be short if the rigs perform as advertised.

    Jay Bowman says he's spoken with a number of trucking executives who have basically said to him "Go away. You know what I want. When you have it come back with something I can drive. If it works, I'll buy it"

    It is important to note that even the four cylinder ePower rig has well under 10,000 miles on it so the ten demonstration rigs will be very important for getting a substantial body of performance data.

    A development that I found to be extremely interesting is that ePower has had an extended conversation with a Turkey-based trucking company about that company shipping a tractor to ePower to rebuild and ship back. This is particularly exciting because diesel fuel is extremely expensive in the EU (nearly $10/gallon) or roughly $2 per mile driven. The calculated payback with such very high fuel prices is under one year.

    One factor that I think isn't being talked about sufficiently is that ePower will need to raise a seven figure sum to implement the plan to build ten demonstration units. JP is working on that issue and discussions with potential funding sources have begun. While the 3rd generation unit will soon be ready, I am concerned that the financing will have to wait for what likely will be several months for testing to be completed. John considers financing events to always be a challenge, but he is confident they will get it done with minimal impact to the timeline. However, I suspect I'm not the only Axionista who is skeptical of such assertions.

    I think the three of us Axionistas at that dinner left with a very high regard for the ePower opportunity. Still, I don't see any follow-up orders beyond the ten rigs until summer 2014 at the earliest.

    Axion Annual Meeting
    At the formal meeting it was reported that 77% of shares were voted with all resolutions passing with 80%+ of votes except the three year issue passed with 75%+. (see the 8K statement that came out Tuesday for the details).

    Bob Averill not present. Family wanted him off the board 3 years ago for what sounded like health reasons.

    Leading CFO candidate at the meeting and Tom Granville introduced him along with the other company employees.

    TG repeated and affirmed his statement that there would be large/significant orders by the next call.

    I think attendance was lower this year than last. The number of Axionistas was similar but my impression was that the number of institutional investors was much less (no questions from institutional investors if I properly recall).

    Presentations
    After the formal meeting, Vani Dantam gave a presentation. Much of his presentation involved bashing Lithium Ion but he also covered a lot of the markets the company is involved with (a broader spectrum of targets than in the past). He was followed by Mike Romeo Senior scientist who gave an introductory presentation on the PbC technology (note: Enders Dickenson left the company a few months ago for family reasons). After the presentations, the two presenters and Tom Granville took questions.

    Vani Dantam presentation:
    In a string, the voltage of PbC batteries is uniform to 1/100th of a volt.

    Lithium Ion bashing:

    • Each cell encased in three steel cases.
    • BMS and thermal factors add 15-40% to cost (I believe this is above cell costs)
    • Operating cost and maintenance add 10-20%
    • LI provides limited power above 40 degrees C (50%) and 0% above 45 degrees. It also provides little power below -10 degrees C.
    • Thermal characteristics (Heat generation) means that a given application requires twice as many (NYSE:KW) LI batteries as PbC.
    • Mentioned the Dreamliner was originally launched without a BMS for the LI batteries. A BMS has subsequently been added. REMARKABLE
    • PbC has 2-4x faster recharge speed vs. LI in partial state of charge.

    Stop start:
    Ford Focus is a $210 option while Chevy Malibu is a $2,200 option. Point was that the automakers haven't really got their arms around the stop-start issue.

    BMW and 5-6 other automakers are working with Axion. 3 of them have told Axion that they aren't happy with AGM. AGM stops working after 3-4 months.

    A European automaker that has been buying Johnson Controls AGM batteries just contacted Axion. They have not been satisfied with the Johnson Controls product.

    Hybrid and EV Trucks
    In current hybrid trucks, all LI batteries do well in the first 1-2 hours until the batteries overheat and shut down. All other hybrid truck manufacturers are working with standard 12-18 liter truck engines rather than using smaller engines (4 liter going to 6.7 liter) running at constant speed as has ePower. Therefore, they will be limited to only incremental fuel economy gains.

    If my recall is accurate Eaton's hybrid truck has sold something like 6000 units and is priced much higher than conventional trucks.

    The ePower hybrid truck has been driven nearly 10,000 miles so far.

    Current truck fleets get on average 5.4 miles per gallon. New trucks average 5.9 mpg.

    The DOE target is 7.3 mpg. ePower is at 8.1 mpg and expects to get to 9.8mpg.

    The fuel economy of a truck can vary widely depending on the experience and incentives of the driver. Trucking company C.R. England has driver incentives and its drivers average 7mpg.

    Part of the improvement is driving more slowly and part is experience with shifting gears.

    Note that the ePower tractor's electric motor uses an automatic transmission and electronic cruise control. This greatly simplifies driving and training requirements for drivers.

    To save space, the fuel tank in the ePower truck is half the size of a standard truck.

    The ePower truck accelerates much better than standard trucks and especially better than the Eaton Hybrid. ePower 0-60 mph with an empty 53 foot trailer is 45 seconds vs. 80 for standard and something like 110 for the Eaton hybrid.

    Axion is also talking to several crane companies. The idea is that like ePower, the PbC will enable them to build their cranes with smaller diesel generators.

    Residential and Community
    Batteries are used to "clean" power.

    California and New Jersey permitting processes now require the use of batteries with solar power systems.

    Axion has created a product that provide 3KWH (4 KW) of storage as well as a 10KWH product.

    Axion storage product was part of the design for a five car electric car recharging station (which I believe included solar) for a Caribbean Island nation.

    Hawaii, Caribbean islands, and Latin America frequently have power costs of $.40-$.50 per Kwh. With solar now costing $.25 Kwh, battery storage makes economic sense.

    Smart Grid
    Utilities require 10% (sunny areas like CA) to 40% (cloudy areas like NE US) of solar capacity in storage.

    PbC batteries used to "smooth" solar power during the day and to provide frequency regulation at night. The latter role is usually more lucrative.

    Mike Romeo - Senior Scientist
    Mike is pretty young and while he wouldn't confirm it, he would appear to be the successor for Enders Dickenson who a few months ago left the company for family reasons.

    His presentation was pretty standard stuff as far as most Axionistas would be concerned. He talked about eliminating crystals and CDI (Concave down increasing) charging patterns which explains why PbC batteries self-equalize their state of charge when in a string (btw the cells within a battery function in the exact same way).

    He reported that the Axion Powercube DSR (don't remember what the acronym means) or grade that the PbC has earned with PJM is 92% vs. the 70% minimum.

    After the meeting I asked him a question about the BMW test protocol which involved the rest periods, which are very hard on lead-acid batteries. He mentioned an experiment Axion ran where they rested the batteries for five minutes after each event instead of the standard ten seconds. This regime ruined AGM batteries in a matter of a few days. This seems very interesting to me. I wonder if in the future we could see applications that combine AGM and conventional lead acid with PbC based on the idea that the PbC batteries can be used to keep the AGM batteries in a fully charged state. For example, in the streetlight scenario maybe one lead acid and one PbC battery could be used to lower the total system cost.

    Question and Answer Period (Granville, Dantam, Romeo)

    • Tom Granville was asked about the next financing event. He said that the company would only need to raise money if it needed expansion capital, i.e. it would only need to raise more money if growth is greater or comes quicker than expected. I found that to be a hugely important statement.
    • Axion is in ongoing discussions with 2 lead acid battery companies. One is customer driven (presumably BMW and their supplier Johnson Controls / Varta). The second was described as internally driven by a desire to market a product with the capabilities of the PbC.
    • Mr. Granville said that these partner discussions did not involve the partner making the electrodes. He said the companies are working to "validate our product on their line". To me this seemed to be unchanged from the last conference call when he said that the potential partner had successfully built PbC batteries on their line. He did say that testing of the batteries vs. those assembled in New Castle was ongoing.
    • Several minutes later in response to another question he stated that Axion would be open to licensing the electrode and carbon sheeting processes as part of an incremental implementation that started with the entity buying all the complete batteries that Axion could manufacture in its facilities, followed by the partner buying all the electrodes Axion could manufacture, and then all the carbon sheeting Axion could manufacture. Note: It was somewhere around this point where Tom Granville laughed and said that Axion would never partner with Exide.

      I was surprised. It would appear that Mr. Granville signaled that Axion is prepared to be more flexible on licensing than it would have appeared to be in the past. Still, one can see that the technology sharing under such an agreement would only take place after a series of confidence building measures were implemented over a period of years.

    • Vani Dantam talked more about the Lithium Ion battery industry. He said that domestic LI companies had an 18-20% cost advantage over imported LI batteries due to government subsidies and to a lesser extent reduced shipping costs. He did say that Axion faced a little bit of an uphill battle against LI because the latter has a longer, more mature, operating history.
    • Vani stated that ePower trucks are only slightly heavier than conventional trucks with the additional weight of the batteries being partially offset by the smaller fuel tank and smaller engine.
    • I think it was TG who said that Axion met with Rosewater recently and that Rosewater was currently at the CEDIA show in Denver. Note, Jay of ePower reported that he also met recently with Rosewater.
    • In response to a question about the Asian automaker that Axion first mentioned roughly a year ago (Axionistas speculate it is Toyota or Hyundai), Tom Granville had stated that Axion has recently signed an NDA with another division of that company. He had nothing to add on the automobile side. I presume this would imply that the company in question is Hyundai since Toyota has relatively few non-automotive businesses and Hyundai Heavy Industries would seem to have lots of potential for utilizing the PbC (world's largest shipbuilder as well as divisions that provide equipment for electrical utilities, construction, and green energy).
    • On two occasions during the meeting Vani Dantam backed off from the October estimate and referred the questioner to Norfolk Southern's statement that the 999 would be operational by year-end 2014 (just kidding, it's year-end 2013).

    Other Events (Plant Tours, Cocktail party, and side discussions)
    As far as the shop floor impression goes, the battery shop seemed busier than last year. Last year some of the melting pots for lead (I know that's not their real name) had broken down. This year, I think all of them were operating. Also, as JP noted, all three lines were operating.

    The electrode building was the opposite. I'm not sure I saw a single person on the shop floor who wasn't involved in the tour. Last year, the electrode line wasn't operating either, but the operating staff was present and talked with us.

    Overall, the facilities were neat and well maintained. At one point, I can't remember who said it, but one of the long-time employees said the facility looked better than it ever has in their previous experience. An example of this was a section of the concrete floor in the main plant that had recently been replaced. I don't remember it being a problem last year but maybe it was replaced due to some work that had taken place under the floor, but nevertheless, it seemed to be something the person with our tour felt should reflect positively on the company.

    • During the plant tour we were told that there has been continued significant and steady improvements in the electrode line throughput.
    • Prototype 3Kwh and 10Kwh Residential Cubes were on display as well as a streetlight application.
    • Axion has determined that a 3.6 Kwh battery paired with 1.5Kw solar panel system will provide a reduction of 30% in the power bill for a residential scenario involving a home with a baseload approximately the same size as the solar panel output.
    • The inverter used in the 10Kwh system was a Princeton DRI 10 model.
    • The street light was a an LED system supported by 2 x 30 HT batteries. Fully charged, the batteries could support the light for 100 hours of continuous operation. When asked why PbC, it was stated that lead acid batteries would have to be massively oversized to support the application to keep partial state of charge to a minimum. Lithium Ion batteries can have issues with the temperature. My theory on why PbC in this application is that the customer would like to standardize as much as possible. Also, given the time lag to receive replacement parts and the expense of shipping heavy replacement batteries, a long lasting but more expensive solution like the PbC would make more economic sense in the island scenario.

    That evening, during the cocktail party, I followed up with Mr. Granville about his statement that Axion would not need an additional capital raise unless growth exceeds expectations. I characterized my question to him as "sustaining funding" vs. "growth capital". He disputed that characterization but didn't specify why.

    I tried to get more information by saying that I'd assume if the company didn't need more capital it must be near cash flow break-even, which would imply that he must be expecting substantial sales over the next 12 months to get the $15m or more in incremental revenue that would be needed. He disputed the $15m number saying it would depend on product mix. I countered by saying that I'm assuming all of that would be PbC revenue (implying the highest margin business). He laughed and said that he'd like to get 40% margins but they are making proposals at lesser levels of profitability (My $15m number does imply roughly 40% margins but Mr. Granville was the one that brought up that number. BTW, I think that should be the appropriate long-run goal for Axion). I then went on to say that it seemed clear that ePower and Norfolk Southern and BMW weren't going to ramp up that fast and I asked him if he was expecting that the grid business would ramp up anything near that quickly. He didn't say anything confirming what I was saying but I think he would have argued with me if he thought I was off base. Do take the above as my analysis only and other than the 40% margin statement, please don't put much stock in my reading of Mr. Granville's body language.

    • An interesting aside to this conversation was when I suggested to Mr. Granville his statement was reminiscent of his 200-300% mistake back in 2011. He said that when he made that mistake he was thinking 2012 vs. 2010, which would have included substantial growth in the flooded contract. He admitted it was a mistake on his part and mentioned that Chuck Trego told him such as soon as the call ended. Later, I told this to some other Axionistas and they were all skeptical of Mr. Granville's explanation. I suppose we'll never know if this is true, but I guess it's at least as likely an explanation as the theory that Axion was expecting a 50 locomotive order from Norfolk Southern.
    • I asked Mr. Granville about the second half of the 2012 financing. He said that group planned to invest (and actually revised upward the $s during the process) and did what he characterized as an unusually thorough amount of due diligence, including calling customers (which to me would seem to be a normal level of due diligence). That group eventually withdrew for two reasons. Their financial situation weakened during the due diligence process and there appeared to be some issue specific to that organization's leader (ie not having anything to do with Axion). So, that leads me to think that they were involved with three groups: The 2012 group, the strategic investor, and Maxim.

    A few minutes later, someone asked TG what market segments he was most excited about. He answered the same way Vani Dantam answered the question when it had been posed to him a half hour previously: First grid and second, trucking (ePower plus other opportunities). To me this answer added weight to the theory that Axion is expecting a lot of grid business over the next year.

    The following is purely a guess so take it with a shaker of salt.

    I think some Caribbean Island is going to announce a $100m initiative with the consortium of which Axion is a part to install a large number of solar panels along with energy storage/grid management, and energy conservation measures.

    I'll pick St. Lucia as my straw man for no particular reason. The country used 310m Kwh in 2012. At $.50 per Kwh (the number Vani Dantam used as a cost for oil generated electricity), that would be $155m spent on electricity.

    I estimate that each 5% of its total electricity supply switched to solar would cost about $30m and would require about $1m worth of (presumably) Axion power cubes at the 10% solar capacity to battery storage ratio for sunny places that Vani mentioned in his presentation.

    So, very roughly speaking a $100m purchase order could get a system that would generate 15% of electricity used. Such a system would require $3m worth of power cubes. All for a country of 160,000 people.
    END OF GUESS.

    In summary, I learned more than I expected but not enough to get me to go out and immediately buy more stock. Did I look Mr. Granville in the eye and decide he's a good or bad guy? No. BTW, he seemed "healthier" this year (he told me that last year he'd returned the day before the meeting from an overseas trip) for whatever that is worth.

    I would be very, very surprised if the grid sale (or whatever it is) doesn't happen, but the financing was an absolute disaster that will act as a drag on the stock until the PIPE is over next spring. It will take very, very good news to overcome that and I've been conditioned over the years not to expect upside surprises from Axion.

    In any case, the annual meeting was well worth attending and a lot of fun. It was a pleasure to finally meet John Petersen, and all the Axionistas are smart and interesting folks.
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    A BIG THANKS TO APMARSHALL62 FOR A WONDERFUL CONTRIBUTION!
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    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Q2 2013 10Q Results Filing by Axion

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    The purchase order is an extension of the existing agreement between Axion and ePower and further validates the performance of the PbC batteries in this hybrid application. At ePower's current specifications, each conversion kit System would require 56 PbC batteries and the PbC battery management system (NYSE:BMS). Axion values each truck conversion battery order at in excess of $20,000.00.

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    FocalPoint Analytics' important comment on Axion Power's recent Financing Transaction

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    Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For ePower

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

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    Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (through 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Price.png

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Volume

    Axion Power Market Cap, Share Count and 200-day Volume:

    Link to JP's write-up on this graph in the header of APC #248 --

    (as of 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Mkt Cap

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    Monthly Volume and FINRA Short Percentage

    The FINRA short tracking graph is beginning to look like it may be a reasonable proxy for selling by the PIPErs. It was an extremely useful tool for tracking the big uglies a couple years ago and so far it seems to be providing the same type of information. If the data does in fact track the PIPErs activity, the lines would suggest that they pounded hard in May to set up a fear dynamic, eased up a bit in June once the angst was established and eased up again in July as the angst gained momentum and the stock price stabilized. [Prior months graphs' comments follow APH] With three days left to go in the month, July is already the all-time volume leader by about 400,000 shares. Unless volume plummets over the next three days, I'm expecting a total volume of more than 15 million shares for the month. It's a lot of selling, but its also a lot of buying and I don't think the buyers are timid or weak.

    (updated through 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Short

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Statistics:

    (updated through 08/17/2013)

    (click to enlarge)8.17.13 APC Comments

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (new edition 10/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (339)
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  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A GREAT BIG THANKS TO APMarshall62 FOR HIS CONTRIBUTION!
    4 Oct 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    AP, thanks for all the time you took to write the article about the AGM. It is much appreciated.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    AP. thanks,

     

    G
    4 Oct 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall: What a great piece! Thanks and kudos!

     

    Music to my eyes, as this did concern me: "A European automaker that has been buying Johnson Controls AGM batteries just contacted Axion. They have not been satisfied with the Johnson Controls product".

     

    YIPPEE! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    NUMERO.....TRES!!!
    4 Oct 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall:

     

    Muchas gracias-Excelente trabajo

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    4 Oct 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    I had a conversation with one of the guys who added some color on why he thinks the second-generation carbon sheeting is superior to the first generation. In the first generation process, the carbon was passed through rollers, folded over and passed through the rollers again and again until the desired consistency was reached. That led to a layered sheet that was uniformly conductive within layers but less uniform between layers, which made it harder for electrons to find a path to the current collector. The second generation process does all the mixing in the jet mill and only goes through the rollers once. That eliminates the folding and eliminates the layering that was unavoidable in the first generation process.
    4 Oct 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    AP M

     

    Thank you

     

    Brilliant and well worth the short wait
    4 Oct 2013, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    Brilliant work APMarshall. Thank you for the detailed report!
    4 Oct 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    APM - that was awesome! your level of detail is much appreciated! Thank you.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fancy: that was APMarshalls work! I just copied and pasted and did a little formatting to try and keep load time to a minimum.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    Great work, APM. Much appreciated.
    4 Oct 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5071) | Send Message
     
    thank you APM. Very well done.

     

    Alot of info in that both spoken by TG and your comments. I see much more positive things that are "believable" than in the past. Such as:
    1. there is substantial more interest, especially auto's expressing dissatisfaction with AGM now.
    2. With this increased interest, I see AXPW business model changing to a more sustainable one. Licensing the tech and mfg. part is the big thing. (this was repeatedly shot down here for a long time)
    3. The automation process has substantially increased the PbC function. IMO, this is why it was such slow adoption in the past and so much more interest from big players now. Along with before they could not mass produce product, now they can and even a much better product. In short, I think the battery just didn't meet needs before this improvement.
    4. The time frame before substantial sales vs. another capital raise is still in question ?
    5. I still think about JP's statement on our last argument that TG was wanting a large partner to take a small stake in AXPW with the option of acquiring a large one later ... wondering if this is still an option or whether TG decided to license the tech & mfg instead ?
    6. Either way, a license agreement would make it easier to value the company and stop this cash bleed. (Just hoping TG doesn't get too greedy)
    4 Oct 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Thank you so much APM----an excellent report!
    4 Oct 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    APM, Thank You so much for the write-up. Your notes and write-up were superb.

     

    Now, Why do I feel, as an Axion investor, like Miss America crawling around poorly illuminated streets in Detroit looking to lay down with pipe fitters for breakfast burrito money in the am? The contrast between your report and what the market is saying is perplexing as heck.
    4 Oct 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    From this report it seems Axion and Rosewater are working on rekindling the relationship they once had and which was tarnished by the "HUB-gate".

     

    I say Cheers to that! :)
    4 Oct 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I hope they saved the graphics they used to have on the web site...
    4 Oct 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1081) | Send Message
     
    Cummings announces 5L diesel engine 200-275hp
    http://bit.ly/19Z89GV-

     

    Production starts Q4 2014, intended for smaller vehicles but may be enough for ePower.
    4 Oct 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2136) | Send Message
     
    Hi NM,
    I was running an M11 Cummins at 350 hp and then upgraded to a Detroit 14L at 425 hp. What I found was that with the 14L I could take the hills faster with only a small hit on MPG. The M11 was noticeably worn out at 500k miles and the 14 L had lots more to go at 500k miles. All I'm trying to point out is that there are trade offs.
    4 Oct 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    Great, comprehensive write up APM. I especially like the conjecture on the island deal.
    4 Oct 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    I join in very grateful thanks to APM and all the others who shared. I'm planning on making the sojourn next year . . .
    4 Oct 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for taking the time to do the write up, AP. It's nice to have so many concentrator contributors all relaying what they saw and heard.
    4 Oct 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    I am distilling APM and other thoughts from earlier APC’s related to the 2013 AGM

     

    Before I share what I see for the input, critiques and comments of others I am interested in thoughts APM and others might have on the CFO candidate.

     

    One has to assume that this is the person most likely to assume the position and the AGM was among final tests for one or both in deciding to proceed. Perhaps not – but why this candidate and not all or others

     

    Had I been in attendance I would have cornered the CFO prospect. My interest would be in knowing what experience he/she might have in financings – especially licensing

     

    Some may have noted my continuing comments re licensing – and the potential it has to provide all the financing that might be required to bring AXPW to positive sustainable cash flow. This is especially true when combined with the current AXPW profile of many opportunities of size serving different markets. Why not hive off one or two to provide the cash to further growth and developments?

     

    If I was a serious candidate for the position – and had to move family etc. – financing would be my major concern. While debt can be an acceptable step when there are legally clear lines to positive cash flow expansion - the capacity to present licensing deals that will not be frustrated by overly cautious management would be a central condition in my accepting any finance position whether I ever acted on them or not

     

    What comments might any of the attendees have on the CFO presented?

     

    When was he/she available to Axionistas?

     

    4 Oct 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    I have to suspect that Company officers are the proper people to be interviewing the candidate. Stockholders elect board members. Board members hire officers. The hiring of a CFO is strictly company business.

     

    And no other candidates were there because he was there. You don't introduce prospects to jobs en' mass. I'm inclined to believe Axion officers know as much as we do about their business.
    4 Oct 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    VW, I was kind of hoping that the corporate officers might know just a little more about their business than we do! ;-)
    4 Oct 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    I don't think the AGM was a test. I think they are courting this candidate and the AGM was a great way for him to learn more about the company, in the best light possible.
    4 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    dlmca -

     

    As I recall, the CFO candidate was at the meeting in the morning surrounded by other Axion employees. I don't recall seeing him again after the meeting.
    4 Oct 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Stefan

     

    That surrounded thing sounds more ominous than I hope it is

     

    We need a strong financial person who can stand up and be counted and knows the ropes in funding a transitioning company through to sustained positive cash flow.

     

    We must have strong people around TG - keeping him and the company moving forward in positive ways

     

    How big were those surrounding the candidate and were they carrying do you suppose. Smile
    4 Oct 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I didn't pay much attention to the CFO candidate. Frankly, I thought it was a little odd that Mr. Granville introduced him. Maybe doing that was part of his effort to draw him into accepting Axion's offer.

     

    I didn't approach him because I just didn't think it would be appropriate and I suspect the other Axionistas felt the same way.

     

    It did remind me of a feeling that I had during the meeting. There weren't too many people from Axion that I felt I should talk to. The relatively junior people were really nervous about saying the wrong thing and the board members weren't really there after the formal presentation. I did meet Mr. Schmidt at the hotel before heading over to the meeting (JP introduced us to him at breakfast). It was funny that he joked that he would have to take over the Bob Averill role of being the resident skeptic in the board meetings. He struck a chord with me because of the concerns I've voiced here about Mr. Granville having an overly compliant board (Mr. Trego would be considered the ultimate insider as an employee who was hired by Mr. Granville).

     

    So, that primarily left Vani Dantam and especially Mr. Granville.

     

    As an aside, I really wanted to talk to you Valleywood and we actually spoke for a couple of minutes at the bar but I didn't know who you were until Stefan explained later.
    4 Oct 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    >APMarshall62,

     

    "In response to a question about the Asian automaker that Axion first mentioned roughly a year ago (Axionistas speculate it is Toyota or Hyundai), Tom Granville had stated that Axion has recently signed an NDA with another division of that company. He had nothing to add on the automobile side. I presume this would imply that the company in question is Hyundai since Toyota has relatively few non-automotive businesses and Hyundai Heavy Industries would seem to have lots of potential for utilizing the PbC (world's largest shipbuilder as well as divisions that provide equipment for electrical utilities, construction, and green energy)."

     

    If Hyundai, might the 'other division' have been KIA? This would keep the automotive theme rather than a new industrial application.
    4 Oct 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    APM, Along with 42itus1's comments. I'm not sure the comment about an introduction to another division of the Asian company really narrows anything down between T and Hyundai. (BTW, Given TG's comment in the past that it was a top 5 automaker it would have to be T. The reason it doesn't narrow it down to much is because T also has an extensive footprint.

     

    Here on Wiki you can see a list of T's interests. As indicated they have 540 consolidated subsidiaries and 226 affiliates. Anyways, there is a list of some of their divisions and partner interests at the bottom of the corporate governance section. Hino makes commercial trucks and they also have extensive material handling equipment operations. Like Hyundai they are huge and diverse.

     

    I've done work for T and Hino. T is one class outfit.

     

    http://bit.ly/19aYV9W
    4 Oct 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    APM, GREAT REPORT !

     

    You gut reaction re: Li battery bashing by Vani. I almost had the sense that he had prepared that presentation for folks other than us. That is, I had the curious notion that he was "selling" our battery to folks there who were doing due diligence for their application and were weighing the two options.

     

    Vani made it very clear that we are going right up against Li in a few applications. He certainly sold me that we were better than Li for a few cases where he though (Vani) Li had already become the anointed. Am I turning into a conspiracy theorist? It sure sounded like a sales speech to me. Of course, that's his job, so . . . . . In any event the man certainly impressed me.
    4 Oct 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    VW, Could be Vani was also using prepackaged material from some of his other presentations as well. Not unusual at all for one who does presentations for many different groups. I've sat through a few with some of them being obviously for some other audience and basically telling to me that my group wasn't that important. I'm not implying at all this was the case for the AM. I think the material is fitting for the group.
    4 Oct 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Just got on Toyotaforklift.com. According to them Toyota is the largest selling forklift in the United States since 2002. They also make tow vehicles. Maybe for light aircraft?

     

    Anyway that may put them back into play, yes??
    4 Oct 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2136) | Send Message
     
    Hi APM,
    Thanks for the well thought out report and presented thoughts. I feel much more comfortable now and justified in my previous Due Diligence. Now it's a matter of waiting for this broken stock to come out of it's coma and get out of ICU. :-)
    4 Oct 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    For any interested in my daily stuff, for the second day FINRA failed to post short sales. So I had e-mails back and forth, they investigated and fixed. Today fixed around noon.

     

    ISTR Oct. or so of last year same problem. Maybe it was some other time though.

     

    Anyway, that's why no update yet. Working on it though.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    "we could see applications that combine AGM and conventional lead acid with PbC based on the idea that the PbC batteries can be used to keep the AGM batteries in a fully charged state"

     

    and that would also deal with the C rate miss-match example JP noted where you might have a big solar panel producing energy faster than the poor ol' LA can cope.
    4 Oct 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    "3 of them have told Axion that they aren't happy with AGM. AGM stops working after 3-4 months.

     

    A European automaker that has been buying Johnson Controls AGM batteries just contacted Axion. They have not been satisfied with the Johnson Controls product."

     

    -Wow. This is very encouraging news. If AGM can't do start-stop, it sure as hell can't do hybrids either, and as the following page makes clear, the cost of Li-ion /kWh is still very high, despite being a relatively mature technology.
    http://bit.ly/1dZDH3p
    (the $400/kWh lowest cost Li-ion battery is a floor on price expected in 2020:
    http://aol.it/15MJ6uK)
    4 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    This is the one thing that snapped my head back.....literally.when I read it, my head did an involuntary snap. This is great news. Super article, too....makes me want to buy MORE!!!
    4 Oct 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    Another outstanding metric:
    "The DOE target is 7.3 mpg. ePower is at 8.1 mpg and expects to get to 9.8mpg."
    and
    "ePower 0-60 mph with an empty 53 foot trailer is 45 seconds vs. 80 for standard and something like 110 for the Eaton hybrid."

     

    I am all about the performance data baby!
    4 Oct 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    I agree that the Asian Manufacturer is Heavy Industry of some kind. Battery powered hybrid ships are an even more obvious application of PbC than trucks and trains.

     

    http://bit.ly/19ZrWFY
    http://bit.ly/15MN6eE
    4 Oct 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Got everythin in my instablog up to date with the FINRA data available. If their automatic stuff starts working again, meaning the files are posted by 17:30 Eastern time, I should be reasonably back on track.

     

    Post here will be much briefer as there's not much point in diving into my junk with a PIPEr cadre on the field, IMO. Took me a while to realize it though.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Many,many thanks Al. Much appreciated.
    4 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Sorry guys, but I think I spy a bit of elephant crap in the parlor:

     

    Enders Dickerson is gone now too? Without a solid replacement fill for the science officer billet, that strikes me as kind of a major departure...
    4 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    As Axion evolves brute science is getting less important while production engineering and process optimization get more important. We have a battery that works better than anything in its class and second generation equipment to manufacture it on. We've also shown that our science and our manufacturing process are portable and can be used in AGM plants owned by others.

     

    I've already suffered through a decade when the science was king and revenue a lowly subordinate. Were I in a decision making position I'd be staffing up with the best manufacturing hands I could find. The science should never go away, but it shouldn't be a huge concern for stockholders who want product sales.
    4 Oct 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    48: With all the heavy lifting doen, maybe Enders wanted to take advantage of his curriculum vitæ to get both: higher pay than a small company might offer; more challenging work.

     

    With the product apparently fully developed, I suspect it would be easy for him to get bored.

     

    On the company's side, thank a highly-paid Enders and offer him full support in finding another position while cutting overhead as a newer guy comes in at, at least, initially lower pay.

     

    As time progresses and he gets experience with the current product he'll be prepared for future enhancements and probably get a lot of enjoyment as his experience progresses.

     

    IMO, we either have a basic product foundation now or we don't. If we do, we don't need as much science - we need more engineering than science.

     

    That's my ignorant take on it.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I was going to post a response to 48 but you've pretty much covered my feelings.

     

    Ignoring any speculation outside of his career path, right now the battery R&D area is exploding. Enders was sitting in a small company with a product that is fairly mature from an R&D standpoint as far as large discovery is concerned. Plus it's something he has been involved with for some time. If I was him, I'd bid Axion a fond adieu while leaving myself available for support. Just as he has done.

     

    This move doesn't concern me near as much as the CFO leaving, but his addition to the board was a good patch for that concern.
    4 Oct 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2849) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    I think a smelled that too; but maybe it's all roses since we are so close to Sales (were told =).
    4 Oct 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Thanks all... I just brought it up in hopes to generate discussion and see/hear what everyone thought. Mission accomplished. Issue adjudicated. And the collective take on it seems to be good consensus and pretty solid. We're well past the science-project stage now and thus just reassuring that this is one more potential concern we can consider as promptly put to bed. Fair winds and following seas to Enders and best wishes for his future endeavors...
    5 Oct 2013, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    48- I had a post all typed up on that. In some ways its reassuring to me. If Enders had been here since he was at the conference in Paris where he presented I would have expected some whitepaper or something else.

     

    I don't know where he left to go as I can't find a linkedin profile for him but I did a facebook search that shows an Enders Dickerson in Michigan that likes Ford. However further google searches show an Enders Dickerson was a member of a Ford Retiree luncheon in January so it may just be his father. I do like what Ford is doing so he may be working for them.
    4 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    Enders is a young guy (Axion YouTube) so that's not him.
    4 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1038) | Send Message
     
    Darn, I was kind of hoping that he moved to work with Ford on their start-stop programs as they we so interested in PbC they felt that their sizable investment required poaching one of AXPW great minds on the battery of what it can/cannot do for them.

     

    Doing something like that maybe would/could save a company a year or two of testing.
    4 Oct 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    He's not an old dude.

     

    http://bit.ly/Rhjo8b
    4 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: He's a "Tar Heel" (at least by education)! Time for him to come back down here where the Durham-based ALABC(?) can take advantage of his experience.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm sure there are lot's of places looking for people just like him. This despite the oil based residue on his one foot! :-D
    4 Oct 2013, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    Superb report on annual meeting, Al. Your forethought on questions to put to corporate execs was evident. Thanks for sharing the info.

     

    Did anyone raise the company's NDA policy with TG, Dantam, or Schmidt?
    5 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: I suspect APM is not allowed to discuss that ... :-\

     

    ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    During the AGM different Axionistas were hearing differing snippets re: status of former head of research Enders Dickinson. I got clarification talking with a key company person in the know.

     

    Enders' role with Axion is ...evolving.

     

    The situation seems fluid and sounds to me akin to an indefinite leave of absence.

     

    Family/health issues have seemingly drawn Enders out of the New Castle area. He REMAINS accessible to Axion for consulting. He may or may not return on a more permanent basis at some point in the future based on a new assessment of mutuality of interest. I.E, whether Axion would still need a person of his scientific standing at some later date and whether he'd welcome returning to New Castle.

     

    The new head of research seems to be the quite young and very personable Michael Romeo. He grew up in the New Castle area and did his undergraduate work in chemistry and biology in the local area at Westminster College.

     

    I think he said he's been with Axion for about 5 years. I believe he does NOT hold any advanced degrees but he repeatedly emphasized that he makes active use of the internet and distance learning to increase his knowledge and understanding of technical issues as needed.

     

    Schooled in science myself, I feel pretty comfortable with Michael in charge of Axion's science. It was Michael who did the hands-on work with the scanning tunneling microscope [a very impressively formidable apparatus to have at a company as small as Axion - albeit bought "used" for presumably a good deal) coming up with the very impressive photographs of states of crystal sulfation on battery electrodes.

     

    Banter arose with his fellow employees regarding Michael's future standing in for Enders Dickinson for Axion at the next international "Paris"-type meeting. Michael stated that he _does_ hold a valid passport ...

     

    I wonder, but did not ask, if he's visited Germany lately...
    4 Oct 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC: Good info. Wish I read yours before I made my post.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    Re: APM's speculation about the new NDA signing with a different division of an Asian automotive firm, I was left with the impression that it could have been with a 'truck division', and I presumed with Toyota trucks. I personally heard nothing to suggest Hyundai.
    4 Oct 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Hino Motors controlling interest of 51% by Toyota. They designed much of the first full sized trucks for Toyota's entry into the US. The T100 platform.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fOXR4v
    4 Oct 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (82) | Send Message
     
    Fuel cost is very important to Japan. Twenty years ago, when I visited my friend in Japan, I noticed two things that still stick in my mind: Very small pickup/ construction trucks and no storage hot water tank in the house. They did that because of high import fuel cost.

     

    After the nuclear plant accident, fuel cost/solar panel probably become their number one priority.

     

    Therefore, PbC will be very important to them for fuel saving application.
    5 Oct 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    As I mentioned before, bus drivers in Japan actually turn off the bus at each traffic light. Stop/start will be a natural idea to them.
    5 Oct 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    The statement was made by TG I believe and it was discreet. That is, what I stated was pretty close to a quote. TG said nothing else about the identity of the company. While doing my writeup, I did some web searches and looked at wikipedia entries for Toyota and Hyundai and formed my own conclusion that Hyundai had more substantial non-automotive (I suppose it could be Hyundai and Kia as well) divisions that could use the PbC than did Toyota. These other folks are right in that it COULD clearly be either company.
    5 Oct 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    APM, As I'm sure you recognize from your research both companies are sized such that they would afford Axionistas a broad smile should some level of adoption occur at some future date irrespective of which one. We're splitting hairs for sure.
    5 Oct 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4666) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I've lived on the hope of a broad smile for 5 years. I'm looking for a small pursed lip grin over the next 9 to 12 months. I need a transition phase from a constant despondent frown . Now I need to retrain my poor atrophied facial muscles slowly so as to not tear the ligaments or herniate the muscles.

     

    If you use the "broad smile" potential Axion has been living with and compare the newer Asian "potential" this is something to save for the 2018 to 2020 time frame.
    5 Oct 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Understood. Hanging out on the lip of a dumpster gets old.

     

    BTW, I thought grid was one of the lesser opportunities on Axion's list of possibilities as far as timing was concerned. Now it's the great green hope. I wish we knew who the consortium was that Axion has joined. Hope they have some clout.
    5 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4666) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I could care less about clout. I'm just hoping they have money and a desire to actually do something.
    5 Oct 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    APM,
    Let me join the chorus in thanking you for all your hard work on the above compilation of information from the shareholders meeting. Much to digest and much that gives hope.
    4 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    48, it is a major loss, but I see the science as now being fully, or almost fully developed. Most of it is up to the customer here. I know it's a cup half full perspective.
    4 Oct 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • gottliep
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    APM, thank you as well. Great food for thought and does sound like things are moving forward in interesting ways.
    4 Oct 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2849) | Send Message
     
    Great report APM.

     

    I especially like your honest assessment of TG. I too have heard he doesn't strike people as the most charismatic/healthy type but I do hope he shot you straight on his reasoning for predicting sales growth that hasn't happened yet.

     

    Having heard JP vouge for his character many times I'll have to assume that he really was thinking about flooded sales way back when his words got everyone excited. Anyhow, this significant order he speaks of will go a long way to regain any credibility he may have lost back then.
    4 Oct 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2793) | Send Message
     
    Great job, apm! You're a huge asset to this blog.

     

    The topic I'd love to hear much more about from everyone is the 'not needing additional financing except for expansion' TG comment.

     

    What do you guys think, and why?

     

    Thanks.
    4 Oct 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2656) | Send Message
     
    I discussed many of the issues above at length with APM and appreciate his write up. Unfortunately, although I am not corporeally living in Missouri, my opinion with respect to any battery company has evolved to a basic phrase - "show me."

     

    As a consequence, the countdown to November 15, 2013 is on. Tick, tock.
    4 Oct 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4666) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... Don't feel alone
    4 Oct 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Yes Stefan.

     

    And the latest Vani proposed target timing for the NS999. Poof. What? Well, err, uh... chirp chirp. :(

     

    Background lyrics.

     

    "Every year is getting shorter never seem to find the time.
    Plans that either come to naught or half a page of scribbled lines
    Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way
    The time is gone, the song is over,
    Thought I'd something more to say."
    5 Oct 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2136) | Send Message
     
    Hi ii,
    I agree that the waiting for the 999 and continued slipping of the timeline is exasperating. However, I would rather be exasperated now than have a failure later from some part not related to the actual function of the system. I think the simplification of the BMS for the PbC is a good sales point (King of the String), I would hate to see a bad rap b/c of a battery racking problem (for example). I do have to say I'm getting tired of the little engine that could "I think I can" routine. Quit thinking and do it already. ;-)
    5 Oct 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, Agree that all testing/modeling that improves the odds of success are accretive to the opportunity for success. I however don't think that is where we're at in the NS 999 program based on TG's words. I think we're delayed more due to vendor delays. This, as you know, hurts Axion more than it helps. Not to mention that batteries don't get better with age.

     

    I'm in the Nike camp as well. Just do it!
    5 Oct 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Manual labor, as in typing "chirp chirp" is soooo passe!

     

    Here ya go! :-))

     

    http://bit.ly/15cxBtW

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    HTL, A green background. How fitting.

     

    And posted one year before TG's "gonna make a sale by this date, I can taste it" date we get a vision of what we'll be lookin' at in Altoona a year later. Loop your link before opening! :-)

     

    @ 2.02

     

    http://bit.ly/19s1t35
    5 Oct 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope the next one posted shows that thing moving around outside with some load applied!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I: I was also quite shocked by TG's statement about not needing another funding round if the company performs in the more conservative range of his expectations. As reported, I did revisit that topic with him at the cocktail party but didn't get a meaningful response from him other than it would seem his body language indicated he was engaged and wasn't frustrated by what I was suggesting. So, pretty thin gruel.

     

    If you believe Tom Granville then that statement was all you really need except for figuring out how to deal with the PIPE.

     

    I'm traveling this weekend and won't be able to participate much for a few days. If folks have questions for me, send me a private note and depending on the question I'll answer privately or here in the forum.

     

    One point I do want to make is that I hope folks don't interpret my report as an endorsement of all that Axion is doing or a statement that all is well.

     

    While I put in some analysis, for the most part it was a compilation of what was presented by the company. You expect that the company will be trying to put its best foot forward at such an event.

     

    Fundamentally, I do have faith that the technology is what it is claimed to be and that it eventually will be successful in the marketplace. I have less faith in the company's ability to promote itself and to raise money. I also think that fundamentally Mr. Granville is a decent guy who is in a difficult spot being the CEO of a struggling public company. He has to keep a lot of his concerns to himself or he'd scare the heck out of an extremely skittish Mr. Market. That said, I would be truly shocked if the sale expected over the next six weeks doesn't materialize. I also wouldn't be shocked at all if that sale proves to be disappointing to me for some reason.
    5 Oct 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    I think TG has a pretty good idea of the probability of cash flow even next year, from the PC sales potential alone. I'm not expecting the next order in the next 6 weeks to be a big company making sale, but it should certainly portend to further sales for 2014.
    5 Oct 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: Based on the Viridity/PJM data gathered, we should expect good success from that first PC sale to an end user. In itself, as you say, doesn't make the company. But what it does do is qualify as DRich's customer #1, generates real-world usage metrics that will help sales to similar situations and give other potential customers the ability to both go see it and pick up the phone and ask the customer "How'd that work out for ya?".

     

    IMHO this would be a huge step for the company. It'll still take some time to fully develop the market(s), but getting that first tent-peg in the ground leads to the erection (calm down boys!) of the tent.

     

    Although I've not said much, I am awaiting this news with lots of anticipation for those reasons.

     

    And while I wait ...

     

    I try and figure effect on share price of the presence of maybe as many as 70MM shares in the hands of ... PIPErs? Axionistas? Traders (unlikely?), ...

     

    If PIPErs, the effect is easy to predict, although the price they might pick is not. If Axionistas, harder. Prudence would dictate that at least some profits, when available, be taken to reduce risk. Degree and methodology make a big difference. If they ladder out (partially) over time (maintain a little higher level of risk for a longer duration), price action might be such that new hands come in with confidence and momentum, if any, is sustainable.

     

    If they just dump large blocks ...

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2793) | Send Message
     
    apm, I can easily see a CEO publicly saying 'no more survival funding's needed'.

     

    But a rough analysis of that stmt says that Axion will need to achieve and maintain a 50k PbC unit sales annual run rate sometime before their cash runs low enough to deter and/or prevent those sales.

     

    Assumptions I used, which are not endorsed by me, but are used to start the discussion:
    --$8 million annual run rate of cash burn
    --immaterial flooded battery margins
    --40% gross margin for PbCs
    --$400 average PbC sales price
    --no strategic funding--although such a funding could easily eliminate or reduce the need for public mkts financing for another year or more
    --no material grants or other sources of outside cash

     

    So, where does the 50k unit sales run rate come from?

     

    Auto s/s: a wild card, I guess. Could satisfy the min requirement all by itself, and then some. But the company has been very soft-peddling this area for awhile now, and we all know lead times are often tremendous. Seems reasonable to me to assume zero unit sales over the next year. Announcement(s), yes, but sales, no.

     

    NS: another wild card, another soft-peddle, another long lead times area. And NS hasn't even begun yard testing the 999, much less an OTR. Maybe Axion gets a few 999 battery sets sales and one OTR over the next year?

     

    ePower: yet another wild card. Lot of 'ifs', but if they come thru, could make a dent in the 50k unit need. But I tend to think that the real significant sales are in 2015 and onwards. Just my opinion based on everything I've heard here.

     

    PC: Bingo. Seems reasonable to me that this area will be the backbone of sales over the next year. But boy, looks like it will have to be huge to help meet the 50k units sales they will need. Dat's a lotta mw's. Looks to me like that will publicly start over the next 6 weeks.

     

    Other: I think it's most reasonable to assume immaterial sales here. Axion has yet to spring a surprise on us that then lead to significant sales in under a year. The surprises have been for testing, relationships starting, etc., not sales.
    5 Oct 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your effort, Mr I. 50K PbC unit sales rate is interesting and a good starting point for discussion.

     

    I note that the Rosewater Energy technical data sheet on PowerCubes referenced 30HT format PbC capacity of 0.5 kWh. Improvements in the carbon sheeting process may have enhanced that capacity a tad so, assuming the technical data sheet is accurate, 2 30HT PbCs would provide 1 kWh storage capacity or a bit more. 50K 30HT PbCs would populate PowerCubes storing ~25 MWh.

     

    Looking at the assumptions used to derive the 50K estimate, $8 million burn rate is high relative to the rate observed this year due to 1) reduction in R&D expenditures in carbon sheet manufacturing and other areas and 2) more efficient use of available company resources such as sale of past tax losses. Reduced outlays on R&D can likely continue for some time as can generation of revenue through sale of tax losses. Provisions of the PIPE agreement allowing PIPEers to requirement payment of interest in cash holds potential for increased cash outlays, though.

     

    40% margin on PbC sales is high if APM's conversations with TG can be taken as an indicator. My own look at that issue using the data and spreadsheet shared with the APC community by JP suggested a gross margin on PbC sales of 33% - 35%. As the toll contract is expected to continue with production near recent levels, that activity can treated as a constant and not enter calculations on what is needed to fill cash flow deficit.

     

    $400 average PbC sales price is IMO low if one is expecting a preponderance of PbC sales for stationary applications which I expect will be in 30HT format. Estimated average price for 30HTs sold to NSC is ~$463 versus ~$410 per form 30H PbC sold to ePower Engines (ePower sale includes BMS as well as PbCs).

     

    I tend to think NSC will at most buy PbCs for an OTR consist locomotive in the next 12 months. At 1.5x - 2.0X the number purchased for the NS999, such an NSC buy would amount to 1,300 - 1,700 30HT PbC units. ePower reportedly plans purchase of batteries for 10 trucks or 560 30H PbC units. Batch sales for testing by new clients might take another 50 PbCs per quarter or 200 for the year. So identifiable potential sales apart from PCs in the coming year (independent of auto, truck APU applications) might total 2,000 - 2,300 PbCs.

     

    Out of time for now. Hope to return a bit later.
    5 Oct 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget the PC is likely able to command higher margins because it's a finished product and also possibly a one-off sale to a rich customer (gov). Though one person here commented on the stupidity of NDAs, this is one area where it helps. A price for the PbC hasn't been set by the market yet, and we certainly don't want it set by a powerful customer like BMW or NSC.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    Ranma ... To my knowledge no one has suggested here that all NDAs are "stupid". OTOH, I am unquestionably of the opinion (and have expressed it multiple times) that Axion and Axion shareholders have been ill served by Axion's blanket NDA policy, refusal to publish even the most basic technical parameters for its PbC batteries, and failure to pursue anything but very large markets for the product.
    5 Oct 2013, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2793) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, thx for the refinements.
    6 Oct 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I: I completely agree with your view of revenue sources although I still hope for a shot from left field such as a starter battery buy from Fedex or UPS. Still I might quibble with a few of your assumptions. First, the burn has been reduced a bit with a little more reduction expected ($1.3m per quarter if I recall).

     

    Second, the 40%/$400 numbers for PbC might be on the high side (as Mr. Granville noted when he joked about 40% margin).

     

    Maybe both of those factors offset each other. Next, while I think the company will need to break even in Q4 2014 that doesn't necessarily need to happen for Axion to defer the need for funding. If a few million dollars comes in in Q4 the burn might be reduced to $1m or even less and thus the company could survive for maybe a couple of years until one of the larger deals comes through.
    8 Oct 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Today:

     

    Tweeter Home Entertainment Group Inc. (TWTRQ)
    684.62% up.

     

    Good night-Carlos
    4 Oct 2013, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    That's because, according to CNBC, lots of folks thought it was Twitter, but it's not.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    LOL.

     

    Ah, and I wonder did anyone manage to short it today?
    4 Oct 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    10/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 37760, Vol: 643987, AvTrSz: 6925
    Min. Pr: 0.1150, Max Pr: 0.1175, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1155
    # Buys, Shares: 20 131787, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1164
    # Sells, Shares: 73 512200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1153
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.89 (20.5% "buys"), DlyShts 100787 (15.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.68%

     

    The daily short sales moved a bit more and is nearing the point where it should start to top and then reverse to continue it's oscillation at low levels.

     

    Price spread narrowed again, ~2.2%, reflecting ARCA joining in at 11:04. ARCA: = guaranteed downer.

     

    Buy percentage lower and struggling as always under the PIPEr pressure.

     

    Repeating yesterday's sentiment: “I feel strongly this is the start of the extended period of trading below $0.12 that I forecast ...”.

     

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1268, x 85%: $0.1078
    10/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1262, x 85%: $0.1073
    10/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1256, x 85%: $0.1068
    10/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1250, x 85%: $0.1063
    10/04: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1243, x 85%: $0.1056

     

    Vol, in K, for above days: 585.80, 1,317.67, 619.47, 1239.01, 643.99.

     

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

     

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

     

    Those details and charts at http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Oct 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (308) | Send Message
     
    To Mr. APMarshall & Axion Power Host,

     

    First, thanks APH for highlighting the APM report as you did.

     

    And great thanks, as so many others have said (not all read yet), to APmarshall62 for your most thoughtful report, well done indeed. Look forward to meeting you at a future annual meeting.

     

    geopark
    4 Oct 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • jmcheln
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall: Thank you so much for your great contribution, sharing your AGM Notes. Extremely valuable stuff and MUCH appreciated. - - JMH
    5 Oct 2013, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    APM,
    Thanks for your very detailed coverage of the AGM.
    5 Oct 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    apm,

     

    As everyone has said, thanks for your notes, they are great! For a couple of reasons I was encouraged by the last call and have been adding to my position. First, the fundamentals seem to be there in terms of battery performance. We have all assumed this but with unproven technology it is good to continue to monitor this and I don't think we have any new information that contradicts previous assumptions. Second it seems like they have good traction in a number of areas. Third the price is so low that it seems like if any of the applications are successful, from this point Axion will provide a good return.

     

    I have a couple of concerns and would be interested if you have any comments. First, I think TG is a bad communicator. When I listen to the calls, he could say what he is trying to say in a much clearer way. I bet this hurts them in a number of ways. Specifically with investors in clearly explaining the value of the company, the path to profitably, and the problems the company has had. This will also hurt with partners/customers in clearly setting expectations for how they work together and the sales job of convincing them to try the PbC and put significant resources behind testing. Do they do a good job of creating fear that their competitors will come out with better products? I think this may be something that will improve once they are successful, in that other parties will be more open to communication because there will be less convincing to do.

     

    The second concern is that they don't seem to really understand their business. They don't really understand their customers and what those customers need to do to commercialize. Given the variety of applications, this is extremely difficult and they do seem to be making good progress here. This makes it hard to decide what to focus and how to set expectations with investors. This seemed like one of Ed Buiel's concerns.

     

    For those that went to the meeting, how good of a communicator did you think TG was. How are the others on the executive team. How well do they understand their applications?

     

    I was also perplexed about the comment about not needing more capital unless there is unexpected growth. This is pretty unbelievable and would be great if true. Is this an example of poor communication or not understanding their business?

     

    I also found the comment about licensing to be a little strange. What does licensing have to do with buying all of the batteries? This seems like it is too focused on what Axion wants and not what the partner needs. Axion could easily license and still sell its own batteries.

     

    Thanks again for all of your work in preparing your notes!

     

    5 Oct 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    @jcrjg:

     

    Others are more qualified to comment but your remarks stirred some thoughts that I'll share for whatever it may be worth.

     

    1) While TG may not be the best communicator, fundamentally his role is less about communication and more about appropriate business decision-making as well as charting a business course. In addition, I am a trained 'speaker' in that I was an actor and a radio broadcaster for many years. I was also the CEO of a national nonprofit (or NGO, as they are now labeled). With my stage and radio experience I can still tell you how hard it is to speak extemporaneously -- even with training. That is further compounded by issues of corporate disclosures and other legal matters which put a 'guard' upon one's lips. Being in charge does not go well with loose lips.

     

    2) I don't really understand the nature of this remark since it seems quite clear that they *do* know their business and know it quite well. They are not at liberty and it would be financially (and quite possibly legally) imprudent to disclose their plans in detail -- especially to those who don't, themselves, understand the nature of the business. I think they have a growing understanding of how their technology can help their clients -- but the whole 'the customer is always right' schtick is mythology. Management has to deal with customers who often seek a 'magic-bullet' but then have to be coaxed into working through problems of new applications and/or the law of unintended consequences.

     

    Then there is whole transition from being a science-driven technology to becoming an application-driven technology. Which leads to your confusion over licensing. From experience, 'licensing' sounds much simpler than it really easy. Beyond that, I would surmise that it is extremely important to keep control over your product and technology to avoid creating competition with your other efforts. Licensing involves a lot of trust between parties and there are, I would guess, very large pitfalls that can occur which cause the smaller owner of the new technology to gradually lose their own rights to their invention. It has happened before.

     

    Finally, regarding capital needs and growth. Again, my experience is relatively small but there are (at least) two relatively fast ways to kill a budding enterprise: one is growing to slowly, the other is growing too quickly. I am reasonably certain (and take heart from TG's language) that they are cognizant of both these problems and the various balancing acts and tight-ropes which must be dealt with.

     

    I hope you understand that there is no malice intended in my remarks, just the thoughts that stirred on a Saturday morning while pondering your comment.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Well stated. Thank you.

     

    Fleet
    5 Oct 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Obieephyhm: Excelent thoughts and considerations.

     

    I suspect the growth issue is the biggest potential pitfall. The fear of "missed opportunity" can drive folks to reach too far too fast and, if one is aware of that risk, fear of *that* pitfall can make one overly cautious, missing opportunities that may have been easily taken.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg: Yes, I think TG is not a good communicator in the sense that he's not your stereotypical extroverted sales guy. He's very defensive and conservative. Some Axionistas have also been critical of Vani Dantam's suitability to be the point person selling the PbC.

     

    I think Axion understands their customers as much as they could be expected to. You have to allow that most of their customers are very large companies whose decision-making can appear to be incomprehensible to outsiders (or any rational human being for that matter).

     

    The licensing comment made sense to me. The idea being that Axion wouldn't just turn over its intellectual property upon signing a contract. No, the relationship would have to meet certain milestones over a period of time. No example was provided but let me make one up. Say BMW wanted to put the PbC is a vehicle with a limited production run (say 20,000 units per year in the US) as a first step. Well, Axion could manufacture the batteries for those units itself and would want to do so. If in future years BMW added the PbC to other models then Axion could just provide electrodes and eventually as BMW implemented it one a widespread basis you might see licensing of the electrode and sheeting processes.
    5 Oct 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    APM: "... understands their customers as much as they could be expected to ...".

     

    There's a hurdle associated with that, if what we've read elsewhere is true: the customers themselves don't always understand what they need, what they want and what they can do (with such as the PbC).

     

    That makes the sales consulting job a bit harder I expect and increases the lead-time needed to close such deals.

     

    That's one of the things that I think makes those early sales potential game-changers: then a potential customer can say "I need just like what XYZ has but with/without ...".

     

    Nothing like a model that makes folks say "That's almost exactly what I need too"!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to APM for his summary. Lots of interesting stuff there that reinforces my long held confidence in this company. I still see a $10 stock price as reasonable in the future.

     

    I was interested in your numbers with the Caribbean Island solar scenario. Implies about a 5 year payback, which I would assume would be pretty attractive. As oil prices go up the payback time should get shorter. Plus it allows countries to reduce imports and preserve foreign exchange. Raises a few questions that I will throw out:

     

     how solid are the numbers?
     how long before the batteries would need to be replaced?
     in the Canadian north there are communities where the electricity/heating is generated by fuel that gets shipped in by the government. The scenario is a bit different, as you would have part of the year where there are very long hours of sunlight and a part of the year where solar is probably useless. Would there be any value in a solar (or wind) / battery system in the north? Would the temperatures undermine the idea?

     

    It would be nice if Axion could put the presentations that were made at the AGM on their website for people to see.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Treehill,

     

    There is a fairly recent presentation on the website that is helpful. I don't know if more was presented at the meeting.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Treehill: I'm not sure I see $10 in Axion's foreseeable future. I think the PIPE ruined that possibility.

     

    As far as my island scenario goes the numbers aren't at all solid. I took a couple of numbers Vani Dantam used in his presentation then did a little research and built my own little spreadsheet. If we each built are own spreadsheets with our own assumptions probably no two of us would arrive at the same answer.

     

    The service life of the PbC batteries has always been a huge issue for me. I think it is the key variable that will determine the ultimate success of the PbC in the marketplace. From what I've seen, it looks like the PbC batteries will last a very long time (I'd expect a decade or more) on an absolute basis and much longer than competitive battery technologies (LI will be impacted by heat much more than PbC in the island scenario).

     

    I suspect wind might be appropriate in the Canadian north but I have no domain expertise.

     

    Last year, I believe I asked unsuccessfully for a copy of the presentation slides. That was part of the reason I took such copious notes this year.
    5 Oct 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    APM: for fixed installations, such as your island scenario, ISTM that periods could be found when the "refresh trickle charge" that Ed Buiel mentioned can be applied. If that's the case, lifetime might be effectively unlimited? That is, the technology might be superseded before the batteries need replacement!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    At the meeting Axion stated that the positive electrode is now the point of failure and that Axion has been working on ways to improve the longevity of that component.

     

    HTL, yes, I think "Ed's trickle charge" if I can call it that, is something that could be applied in the island scenario.
    5 Oct 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Located in PA. Lithium ion.

     

    Meet Solar Grid Storage, A startup mixing batteries with solar.

     

    "Solar Grid also works on lining up financing for its projects, a particularly difficult challenge given that the energy storage market is so young and many banks aren’t willing to put money into what they consider unproven technologies. In fact, two of the big obstacles for growing the energy storage market are being able to show that energy storage technologies will work as promised over time and that there is good money to be made. Wells Fargo is going as far as installing a battery system at one of its corporate buildings in Southern California to collect this type of data."

     

    http://bit.ly/15SIKxh
    5 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    I didn't realize Axion had given or sold PbC batteries to Scott Sklar for his advertising van for storing power from his solar panels.

     

    http://bit.ly/L2TNuK
    5 Oct 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: that is interesting. With a wind turbine and solar and fuel cell, I guess he needed something that could handle a lot of variability and accept and deliver quickly with falling to pieces.

     

    I wonder if he's got an "Axion Inside" sticker that folks have been clamoring for? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    5 Oct 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    Any Axion Inside sticker is a good thing.
    5 Oct 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    Axion worked with Sklar in the lead up to securing the Washington Navy Yard Net Zero Energy Building contract. The project incorporated a 36kWh PC. I have found it more than a bit disconcerting that Axion has not continued to work with Sklar to develop sales to renewable energy markets, choosing instead to work with a very small list of system integrators and the likes of Rosewater Energy Group (which as far as I can tell has never sold any Axion product).
    5 Oct 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if those solar panels on his Prius help keep it cool, sitting in the sun all day at the office?
    Great find.
    He is working on the Navy project
    5 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update, it was nice except I keep wishing I was there.
    Waiting is hard, hope we can get some storage going soon before it goes full steam ahead with AGMs, that will not work as well. Story seems that, as in Stop Start and NCS, use AGM without testing and then use PcB which they test forever. Once bit twice shy
    5 Oct 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Google groups has a picture of the demonstrator van which is used for educational purposes.

     

    http://bit.ly/1geUxNL
    5 Oct 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: interesting, I think, that right behind that vehicle with all the "green" trappings sits a Land Rover - not exactly known for being green.

     

    Incongruity.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2013, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    HTL, The US has plenty of incongruity. Especially in passenger vehicles. Always amazed at the people that drive full sized trucks around for base transportation. One carbon unit in a full sized pick-em-up. Although gas prices have cut back on the insanity significantly. GM has cut back full sized truck/SUV capacity by well over 50 % and Ford is selling well over 40 % V6's which used to be unheard of.

     

    I can remember years running 1.7 million units of a part I build much equipment for GM/pick-up's/SUV's. The Chevy/GMC trucks and SUV's all had basically the same front clip. This being the front doors forward. And you know 50+ % of those were grocery haulers. Jeez talk about conspicuous consumption with no regard for being wasteful!
    6 Oct 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,

     

    Yes, it is something of the American way to not care if you can afford it. A friend of mine who is a physician drives a Ford Explorer as his commuter vehicle, bragging that it's basically an F150 truck with a super extended cab. The second vehicle for the wife? --another Ford Explorer. With 2 kids, hardly needed. She is also a doctor and frequently works at the same hospital, though it does vary. Do they ever carpool with each other? Not on your life. Too inconvenient and with their combined income gas expense doesn't matter to them. However, asked if they are concerned about waste or the environment, they point to their recycling bin filled with papers and jars.
    6 Oct 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    RA, I understand completely. Equivalent story. Had a boss with an oncologist sport shooting partner. His buddy bought a huge John Deer tractor to plow the driveway. With all kinds of power take off attachments. This was his reason for buying a Ford F350. Just in case he needed to bring the tractor or numerous attachments in for service. Added on to the heated barn to store everything. Barn had a full machine shop, brand new and barely used. In the end he could have walked out to a clean driveway whenever he got up in the am for less than 1 % of the stuff he bought on a whim. But at least he had something to drive every time his new Lotus broke down!

     

    Ya gotta take care of the necessities!
    6 Oct 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Nice toys gotta have a nice toybox!
    6 Oct 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    >RA, especially when the cost of recycling anything but aluminum is usually a net loss. The local taxpayers pick up the difference! Sigh.
    6 Oct 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    Lead acid battery recycling is very profitable.
    6 Oct 2013, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    Glass CAN be slightly profitable or break-even, but the numbers of glass containers have dropped tremendously.

     

    Plastics...

     

    Iffy proposition without government subsides.

     

    Recycling specific high end (and very clean) plastics (usually in a manufacturing environment) can be profitable. Once you have to do a lot of cleaning, sorting and foreign object work, its tough.
    6 Oct 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    Ultimately recycling is a lot like mining. If you have a simple high grade feed stock with few impurities that are easy to separate, it makes money. If you have a low grade feedstock, or a complex feedstock that increases separation costs, it can be very hard to make money.
    7 Oct 2013, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Also
    Recycling depends on the resources you have available.
    (Assuming local recycling) if you are in an area with plentiful water paper is cheaper to recycle than plastic bags. If not, it can be the other way round.
    Next what are you recycling into?
    Cardboard boxes need less recycling (Chemicals etc.) than writing paper.
    Park benches are not a problem for mixing most plastics.

     

    As to individual places the answer is it depends:
    < in 2002, New York City, an early municipal recycling pioneer, found that its much-lauded recycling program was losing money, so it eliminated glass and plastic recycling. According to Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the benefits of recycling plastic and glass were outweighed by the price -- recycling cost twice as much as disposal. Meanwhile, low demand for the materials meant that much of it was ending up in landfills anyway, despite best intentions.

     

    Other major cities watched closely to see how New York was faring with its scaled back program (the city never discontinued paper recycling), ready to perhaps jump on the bandwagon.

     

    But in the meantime, New York City closed its last landfill, and private out-of-state landfills raised prices due to the increased workload of hauling away and disposing of New York’s trash.

     

    As a result, the benefits of recycling glass and plastic increased and glass and plastic recycling became economically viable for the city again. New York reinstated the recycling program accordingly, with a more efficient system and with more reputable service providers than it had used previously.>

     

    New York has high prices, so it is cost effective, in other places it may not be.

     

    <Michael Shapiro, director of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Solid Waste, also weighed in on the benefits of recycling:

     

    “A well-run curbside recycling program can cost anywhere from $50 to more than $150 per ton…trash collection and disposal programs, on the other hand, cost anywhere from $70 to more than $200 per ton. This demonstrates that, while there’s still room for improvements, recycling can be cost-effective.”>

     

    On small Islands you may find piles of LA batteries. I've wondered if it would pay to collect and ship them.
    7 Oct 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I pay $24 per month for twice-weekly collection. That's $288 per year. I have, upon occasion, had about half a ton to be picked up and carted off (ie, for about $10 per ton). Some neighbors have higher priced services that run about 50% higher than mine, and when I lived in a small town near here, my garbage collection was free (included as part of the local sales tax, which was 2% and also paid for various road projects and safety efforts).

     

    The county where I live tried several recycling programs (pretty much just after NY initiated their early efforts) with poor results. Then they spent lots of money on an early idea to process garbage into diesel fuel (the plant still sits there, mothballed, an early failure that haunts us still, though I believe we finally managed to pay off the notes 20 years later).

     

    I'm a big fan of recycling when it can pay for itself. Less so when its obviously not working well, and not at all when its just a black hole down which to toss the public purse.
    7 Oct 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    To late to add this thought.
    In Europe some countries are burning trash to make power.
    This is considered Carbon neutral.
    Ridiculous IMO but it is.
    Some greens are happy with this as there is less in the landfills.
    Some greens are unhappy as countries who burn trash tend to recycle less.

     

    Countries are importing trash just to burn it as this "lowers their CO2" profile. Probably cheap fuel as well.
    "Plastic Burns really well"

     

    I wonder what other emissions come out of burning carbon neutral plastic in an incinerator?
    7 Oct 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    Froggey,

     

    Virtually no harmful emissions of any kind from these trash incinerators. There was a NOVA special with David Pogue that covered this, which you can view on their website. The incinerators use a closed gaseous loop and run at insanely hot temperatures so that everything breaks down completely.
    7 Oct 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    RA, So why is the US kicking the can down the road year after year? Take a ton of hazardous material and mix it with a million tons of household waste and you have? Yep, one million and one tons of hazardous waste. Then you let some of it leach into the ground water and you've really got a mess. Heck, Maybe we should just go back to dumping it in the ocean again. That's just as brilliant.

     

    Oh, here it is.

     

    Europe Finds Clean Energy in Trash, but US Lags

     

    " Nickolas J. Themelis, a professor of engineering at Columbia University and a waste-to-energy proponent, said America’s resistance to constructing the new plants was economically and environmentally “irresponsible.”

     

    “It’s so irrational; I’ve almost given up with New York,” he said. “It’s like you’re in a village of Hottentots who look up and see an airplane — when everybody else is using airplanes — and they say, ‘No, we won’t do it, it’s too scary.’ ” "

     

    http://nyti.ms/17cyPDe
    7 Oct 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Thanks I haven't kept up on them the only problem I have is.

     

    <From a pollution perspective, today’s energy-generating incinerators have little in common with the smoke-belching models of the past. They have arrays of newly developed filters and scrubbers to capture the offending chemicals — hydrochloric acid, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, dioxins, furans and heavy metals — as well as small particulates. >

     

    The same type of filters could be put on coal plants but for the most part they are not. At least in the US and most of the ROW.
    7 Oct 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4666) | Send Message
     
    >froggey77 ... The pollution controls on an incinerator will not work on a coal fired plant. I'm not going to go into the details but I'll give one really big hint ... volume ... and some other stuff.
    7 Oct 2013, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    NESCAUM is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit association of air quality agencies in the Northeast. Our Board of Directors consists of the air directors of the six New England states (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont), New Jersey, and New York. Our purpose is to provide scientific, technical, analytical, and policy support to the air quality and climate programs of the eight Northeast states.
    http://www.nescaum.org

     

    Seem to think we can.
    Control Technologies to Reduce
    Conventional and Hazardous Air Pollutants
    from Coal-Fired Power Plants

     

    http://bit.ly/17cLC8J

     

    According to the union of concerned scientists some have them most do not.

     

    But probably not cheap.
    Which is why I have doubts about the incinerators.

     

    I don't have a serious idea of how much this would remove and what would slip through. Perhaps you could enlighten me or give me nontechnical sources to look at?
    7 Oct 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    CO2 concerns?

     

    Burning megatons of waste MUST transform much of that waste into CO2. Leaving it in a solid form does not. Would not seem to forward the CO2 reduction mandates, but then again, as we have seen, Europe's progress along that path is not working very well in any event.

     

    Also, by "capturing" the bad stuff via various scrubbers and other means you are creating VERY dangerous and very concentrated stockpiles of...

     

    Hazardous waste.

     

    Or is there a recycling loop somewhere in the plan?
    8 Oct 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    I dipped my toe into these waters some years ago and the principle problems back then seem to remain in place now. First problem is that no one wants one of these in their town or city and no one wants one anywhere there is real estate with value.

     

    Second problem is that waste-hauling is expensive and usually tax-subsidized for everything but residential (and, even then). People don't understand the technology, fear it and little is done to educate people regarding its advantages. It's too big to do on a meaningful small scale to demonstrate and then scale to size.

     

    Third problem is that it generates a tremendous amount of inert and useless ash which still has to be transported and disposed. Back in the day, there were attempts to find something useful to do with it to make it some (even minor) commercial product. I'm unaware of anything significant being developed.

     

    Fourth problem is that some chemicals end up being concentrated in the ash and that can make it toxic which sorta defeats the purpose of consigning it to landfills. It also means that the incinerator can't be used without adding the expense of 'sorting' materials prior to processing to avoid the pollutants. It also adds cost to collect and re-transport some of the materials back for proper disposal.

     

    I'm not up on the current technology but, so far as I can tell, the logistical problems are still in place and for large metro areas, I suspect that is part of the problem for converting over to them without adequate demonstrations that the technology has long-term 'legs' to make it worth the effort.
    8 Oct 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    tripleblack,

     

    I'm thinking compounds will pretty much all break down into elements or simple molecules in that much heat. Therefore a lot of hazardous material is actually made completely benign, so no storage worries. What's left of the bad stuff should be just the heavy metals. I bet they can be separated fairly easily by weight and then recycled.
    8 Oct 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    This guy has a number of articles on batteries and his experiences and observations. it includes some math which is over my head and an attention to detail which would make any Obsessive Compulsive proud.
    He has a PHEV ans a solar system who's batteries have died. Several battery related pieces in the last couple of months.
    This piece called: A Nation-sized battery
    Has been linked to here before but not in the last year or two AFAICR.

     

    http://bit.ly/LAbFzw

     

    The first comment talks about Pumped hydro. His response:

     

    Water in lakes has ~300k cubic kilometers ~ 3 * 10^14 kg
    http://on.doi.gov/193kgFM
    Potential energy is ~ 9.81*weight*height
    Storage requirements (USA): 336 billion kWh = 1.2 10^18 J
    height = 1.2 10^18 / (9.81 * 3*10^14) kg ~ 408m

     

    We would need to pump water in all lakes about 408m high to have 7 day worth of reserves for USA.
    - See more at: http://bit.ly/193kjkT

     

    BTW He is not saying This is not happening He just looked at one thing and thinks there will be a number of solutions.
    5 Oct 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    "I think some Caribbean Island is going to announce a $100m initiative with the consortium of which Axion is a part to install a large number of solar panels along with energy storage/grid management, and energy conservation measures."

     

    APM was there something specific that triggered this thought?

     

    $100M at 25% margin on a 2-5 year program could certainly give AXPW the cash flow it needs to develop other customers/markets
    6 Oct 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    dlmca > "... $100m initiative with the consortium of which Axion is a part to install a large number of solar panels along with energy storage/grid management, and energy conservation measures."

     

    Think of PbC sales as a part of a much larger whole. Installation of a large number of solar panels, funding for energy conservation measures and non-storage components of a grid management system would take significant chunks of the overall budget.

     

    Assume 10MWh of storage is planned. At $450 per 0.5 kWh, the battery component would cost $900 kWh, $900k per MWh, and $9 mil (9% of the project total) for 10 MWh storage capacity. AT $400 per 0.5 kWh Pbc, 10MWh storage would yield PbC sales revenues of $8 mil.
    6 Oct 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    We will know a great deal when the CFO is introduced.

     

    Follow the money. All good CFO’s do

     

    Any serious candidate will want to know that the financing is manageable and that the company has a bright future far into the future. It will become their future

     

    The stronger their credentials the more assured we can be that AXPW has a bright future

     

    The weaker the persona and credentials the more uncomfortable we should all be that the AXPW culture is restrained by ineffective management
    6 Oct 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Thx D-inv

     

    Sorry - I had figured we were but a part of a total sale

     

    Having your detail most helpful. Still potentially a nice base of sales for a small enterprise like AXPW

     

    More importantly perhaps setting up many more sales as the PbC demonstrates its value in yet another practical application
    6 Oct 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    dlmca, Your comments are interesting re: CFO announcement bona fides. I guess I kinda agree with the direction of your suggestion. I'd like a Northwestern grad (or some such) with lots of fire. For sure I'd like someone with experience in this field. Doesn't need to be a Wharton grad or anything. Just solid.

     

    A couple of concentrators back a few folks were suggesting that the CFO had to be young, with lots of zip, but no particular experience nor credentials in tow. In particular it was opined that said officer should be a young preferably attractive woman because businessmen are more agreeable with a young woman.

     

    Whatever.

     

    My particular interest is in Vani. My "impression" is that we've got ourselves a Corvette. Without S/S. From what I saw he was always on. Motor always running. I hope, (and perhaps hope so much that my vision is clouded) that he is the powerhouse I think he is. Also hope he leaves room in his playground for young hotshots to join him.

     

    I came away from the AM with the impression that I really really like our team. I also concluded that I see our near-term future sitting on the proverbial three-legged stool. From my fully acknowledged bias:

     

    1) No more plumbers. Bastiches !

     

    2) No debt (dilution only if necessary)

     

    3) Sales, Sales, Sales. And hence my preoccupation with Vani.

     

    Sitting in my pasture, everything else, seems to me, is a pale shade of pastel.
    6 Oct 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    VW,

     

    I think you are referring to my opines a few weeks ago. To be sure, I suggested that Axion hire an attractive young smart woman not as CFO, but to fill a newly created job dedicated full time to lining up equity investors for future capital needs. I suggested that any finance experience for this task be superceded by charm as it would be basically a sales job. The CFO position in contrast requires a lot of education and the more experience in a CFO candidate the better.
    6 Oct 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    RA, you might be right about the preferred candidate for that job. From my perspective however, anybody reaching for my wallet has no gender, age, charm, or anything else. SWMBO won't let me do much of anything like that any more, but in the past there were a few things she didn't know. :>) And in those cases I never saw anything but green.

     

    I'm kinda like Andy Griffith in "No Time for Sergeants"

     

    "I see a Major and I see a Lieutenant". :>)
    6 Oct 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    VW,

     

    Good point, a pretty face is certainly not worth a million dollar investment risked. My thinking though is that the prettiness and sweet voice are the key to getting phone calls returned, and getting a face to face meeting (or better yet Skype) to pitch the equity. Bait and switch, in a sense...

     

    Rich people and executives are bombarded with requests for their time so I think a powerful gimmick is needed just to be heard. Nothing more powerful than that most visceral libido! (I know as my own attempts to preoccupy me.)
    6 Oct 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    LOL. Game. Set. Match.

     

    You got me !

     

    God bless women!
    6 Oct 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    RA, I spent 30+ years in radio and television in sales and management. I found that, everything else being equal, a pretty woman got in to see the decision maker with a lot more frequently than a male. I remember one time, as a salesperson, sitting in the waiting area at a local car dealership in Charleston, SC, with a pretty red-head salesperson from a competitor. The guy looks out his door, sees us both sitting there, and has the "gate-keeper" send in the pretty red-head. i sit patiently waiting my turn. 15 minutes later she comes out of his office...a few seconds later, the receptionists turns to me and says that the buyer had another engagement and could I come back at another time. When I got into sales management, all other things being equal, the pretty woman got the job...
    7 Oct 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Drug makers like to hire ex cheerleaders.
    They know how to smile when the don't feel like it. They are personable high energy and use to being in the limelight.

     

    A nice show for doctors who see mostly unhealthy older people all day long.

     

    Not to mention the breaking scandal in China.
    Asian Girlz: Glaxo Drug Reps in China to Offer Docs Sex for Scripts.
    http://bit.ly/1agznKj
    7 Oct 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    "BMW and 5-6 other automakers are working with Axion. 3 of them have told Axion that they aren't happy with AGM. AGM stops working after 3-4 months.

     

    A European automaker that has been buying Johnson Controls AGM batteries just contacted Axion. They have not been satisfied with the Johnson Controls product."

     

    AXION shareholders have been so disappointed by delays and share price that they pretend that BMW .... and as we see here, other manufacturers are not going to make Axion the next great car-battery maker with a phone call. The suspense is just too much to bear. Well with 60 million cars being produced worldwide, if just 1% of them require the performance of PbC then that's 600,000 batteries a year for Axion.
    6 Oct 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2136) | Send Message
     
    I have to say that while I enjoy all the positive speculation, I have to keep my feet firmly on the ground. I refuse to read much into all the talk about auto or trains. I think it will happen, just in it's own sweet time. ( did I just qualify for the damp rag award?)
    6 Oct 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    You made a valiant effort Stilldazed, but many of us remember that four years of "its own sweet time" has already passed and heaven knows how much money has been spent on testing, validation and more testing.

     

    The automakers came to Axion in the first place because they knew AGM wasn't suitable for the systems they were already building, much less the more advanced systems they wanted to build. Now it seems that other battery manufacturers are grudgingly acknowledging AGM's shortcomings and talking publicly about "something more," like 48-volt systems with a couple of chemistries.

     

    First generation start-stop was introduced by BMW in 2008 and the 2014 model year cars are just starting to roll into showrooms. I have to believe we are far closer to the end of the process than we are to the beginning.
    6 Oct 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    Patrick,

     

    Right on. Let me just extrapolate that 600k figure, conservatively based on just 1% of cars, while governments ratchet up mpg standards and assess increasingly large fines for automakers failing to meet them: 600k PbCs @$350 each is a quarter billion in annual revenue! That doesn't count any revenue from ePower, locomotives, PowerCubes or residential units, and now the new mass market offerings such as the portable streetlight. Not to mention the many applications not yet pursued such as heavy construction equipment.
    6 Oct 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    JP, I honor the tone of your remark. I'm ready today, however.

     

    Because I too am closer to the end of my process than I am to the beginning.

     

    I want Axion to reach the end of their process before I reach the end of mine. :>)
    6 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of heavy equipment applications, I confess ignorance. What made me think of them was the recent PbC interest from the crane builder. Question for the engineers on here:

     

    Is it plausible for diesel equipment that powers hydraulics (shovels, buckets, etc) to use PbC's to save fuel? I'm wondering how much the diesel engines have to rev when the equipment is stationary just to power the hydraulics? Seems to me that a bank of PbC's might store diesel generated power so revving would not be necessary just for lifting tasks (assuming that revving is currently needed).

     

    If ePower can downsize the engine of Class 8 trucks with huge fuel economy gains, could Caterpillar downsize its engines across its fleet with similar results?
    6 Oct 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Let me theorize what's going on based on the latest data. It builds on John's thoughts which I think are right on. Only my bridge building based on limited data.

     

    If you look at the number of auto makers Axion mentioned it should strike you as a "holy c$#p" moment. Some have suggested as much. I mean 5 or 6 auto makers don't show up on your door step by accident and it's not because Axion is recognized as coming from royal genes.

     

    OK, Now let's theorize that the automakers haven't picked a perfect solution for some levels of SS yet because nothing looks like a clear winner. OK, let's not theorize because it's a fact. While we see mostly enhanced flooded and AGM batteries being used for SS we see many of the well respected automotive concerns going the path of ultracaps with flooded or AGM and even lithium ion. Why? Not because they wish to spend more but because as we've discussed and witnessed from the various brand forums AGM stinks. It doesn't stink too much because it's fairly inexpensive and the automotive concerns had to do something.

     

    OK, now these automotive companies have fleets with AGM and they are getting real world data and some nice ripe customer feedback which they often have to dip into the kitty to resolve. What's the data and feedback telling them? It's telling them Uh oh, Houston we got a problem. We better do something before we spread this crap all over the place. and are years into it with millions more vehicles for each manufacturer. Plus our future loads are going up as those darn engineers keep electrifying things and those darn marketing guys keep adding more STUFF. DVD's. "where we be's" and tunes for free's. They are killin' the battery.

     

    So, Now they think about what's been going on. Those D%%n government guys keep telling us prices for lithium ion are going to fall but they are not delivering fast enough. Plus the guys in the research labs keep saying it's not ready for prime time and I can't assure life and safety at a high enough level. Yeah yeah, I know we promised. And the ultracap guys? Pretty much the same story.

     

    So now what? Carbon additives? Why develop it and add it? It helps but based on what we already know it's sugar coated poop. Better with the sugar but still not worth ordering.

     

    So, what do we do? We're in deep because we don't have a solution in the bag and the guys down the hall are not going to be happy. Hey remember those babbling idiots from Axion making claims we laughed about a few years back? Yeah yeah magnitudes better DCA and it lasts longer. LOL. Idiots.

     

    But wait a minute. I just read BMW is still working with them and some other big concerns are dipping their toes in the water. Uh oh, We're behind the curve on this one I think. Yeah, I just heard through the grape vine BMW has XYZ battery company talking to them about production. OMG, let me see that warranty and customer concerns data again for the AGM units we launched two years ago. Holy c$#p tell me we're testing this because we've got our pants down here.

     

    OK, That's my rough rendition as to why Axion is now talking about more automakers sniffing around. It's a story for sure and while you'll find it in the fantasy section I thing it's grounded a little in plausible historic facts. There still is no affordable solution in the market that is not costing too much in customer warranty and good will.
    6 Oct 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    RA, I don't know the heavy equipment area very well but I'll take a stab at it. I'd guess that if you told these companies you wanted to sell them batteries to recuperate energy after they electrify movements that are mostly hydraulic they would faint from too much laughter. I think you'd have a chance with SS and support of aux. loads perhaps.

     

    Anyway, I saw this recently. I think it's a better solution.

     

    CAT hydraulic hybrid uses accumulator.

     

    http://bit.ly/17autwk
    6 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    Hi IIndelco.

     

    Muy buena historia estoy seguro que así esta sucediendo.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    6 Oct 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2794) | Send Message
     
    Just compare the major lifters to any elevator: it goes up, it comes down. Lift a load, lower a load. Repetitive work. No doubt, low speed or starting, high torque requirements demand huge power sources. Anytime stored energy can reduce peak power cheaply and practically, especially repetitively WITH PbC, and even more so when doing recuperatively, or with regeneration. Makes payload factors more significant - and then net work is very efficient. So yes,........
    Steam shovels were good at leveling with storage. Same for hydraulics. Now, same for PbC PLUS the recuperative storage. Should be big.
    6 Oct 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    RA > " 600k PbCs @$350 each is a quarter billion in annual revenue!"

     

    Axion is licensed to produce 3,000 batteries per day and has always stated it wants to sell C electrodes to other battery OEMs. Much closer to probable outcomes to think in terms of selling $75 - $100 worth of electrodes for each of those 600K PbCs. At $100 per PbC that putative $250 mil revenue reduces to something closer to $70 mil.
    6 Oct 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco
    In your link I found this:
    Gray emphasized that Caterpillar had developed on parallel tracks both an electric and an hydraulic hybrid system.

     

    Komatsu’s HB215LC-1 is an electric hybrid excavator, which Construction Equipment field tested in 2011.
    http://bit.ly/1clkivN

     

    Testing Reveals Komatsu Hybrid’s Fuel-Sipping Character
    6 Oct 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,

     

    Thanks for finding the great article on CAT and Komatsu's hybrid initiatives. To clarify, I don't suggest that the hydraulics would be eliminated by electrical lifting. Rather, battery power first would be applied to the hydraulic piston and to the degree that more power was needed then the diesel generator would kick in to add power to the hydraulic piston.

     

    Looks like CAT's accumulator is recapturing and storing energy (from swinging) in hydraulic rather than electrical form.
    6 Oct 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Good point. I'll take the $70M though! If penetration is 3.5% instead of 1% then we're back up to $250M. We can play around with numbers guesses but nearly any of them look very, very good for a company you can buy currently for ~$20M.

     

    Margin % on the hypothetical $70M of electrodes should be much higher than the $250M of batteries would have been. So the differential impact to the bottom line as nowhere near as great. Also, to the battery industry it still counts as $250M of PbC sales for S/S and so $250M is the number the industry would sit up and take notice of.
    6 Oct 2013, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    Axion's goal has always been to optimize the productivity of its New Castle battery plant and then market electrode assemblies instead of building new battery plants.

     

    The idea was to keep the highest value battery manufacturing in house and let partners make lower margin products. So while it's fair to assume that most of Axion's long term growth will come from selling electrode sets at $100 to $150 per battery, its initial focus will be making batteries to the extent of New Castle's capacity and then selling electrode assemblies to satisfy excess demand.

     

    That's why the last sentence of every press release says "Axion's future goal, after filling their plant's lead-carbon battery production capacity, is to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry."
    7 Oct 2013, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4666) | Send Message
     
    >Stilldazed ... Nah! Not even close.
    6 Oct 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1021) | Send Message
     
    APMarshall> — Thanks much for your excellent writeup! --- RE: “Some Axionistas have also been critical of Vani Dantam's suitability to be the point person selling the PbC.”
    .........................

     

    I’m encouraged by the recent rapprochement between Axion and Rosewater. When Rosewater named former Axion employee Bill Gotts CEO in July, I immediately began to think this might be just the opportunity for the companies to mend fences, as they both would have so much to gain. And who better to make this happen than Gotts, who is so familiar with PbC’s capabilities.

     

    That this has happened in such a short period of time makes me believe all the more in the potential of Axion collaborating with Rosewater again. Seems like it would by an ideal way to, as Iindelco so succinctly put it, to “collect some nuts and berries elsewhere.” — From the following description, it seems like Boggs/Rosewater have the potential to make up for some of the shortcomings in Axion’s Sales Dept.
    .........................

     

    William C. Gotts Named Chief Executive Officer of RoseWater Energy Group

     

    July 1, 2013 — RoseWater Energy Group, a provider of next-generation energy storage products, has named William C. Gotts as its chief executive officer. A seasoned entrepreneur with over 20 years of experience pioneering new businesses, Gotts has a history of successfully developing and launching innovative products. He is passionate about environmental sustainability and has made the energy sector, specifically advanced battery storage, his sole focus for the past five years.

     

    “Bill’s vast experience in energy storage and commitment to staying ahead of the innovation curve makes him an ideal choice to lead RoseWater,” said Joseph Piccirilli, co-founder and managing director of RoseWater Energy Group. “Together, we look forward to integrating our cutting-edge energy storage products into the marketplace.”

     

    Gotts has worked with a broad range of clients in the energy storage sector such as the U.S. Department of Defense, Norfolk Southern Railways, BMW, General Motors, and Viridity Energy/PJM. — http://bit.ly/12LslYu
    .........................

     

    Welcome to RoseWater Energy Group

     

    An idea. It can be that simple, yet it can have implications beyond our wildest dreams. At RoseWater Energy Group, we take the idea and make it a reality. We utilize and help develop cutting edge technologies to fill voids we have identified in the market. Understanding the constraints of the energy sector, we focus on both large and small applications. We work with inventors, leading product innovators and manufacturers and have developed an unparalleled product line never before imagined possible. — http://bit.ly/yUPfAj
    6 Oct 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5071) | Send Message
     
    Where are you getting that Rosewater is back to being a partner?

     

    I see nothing that mentions anything about AXPW on their site
    6 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    At the AGM Tom made time to tell the assembly that Rosewater was at CEDIA presenting Axion's latest offerings to the assembly. It's not always popular but sometimes the best way to bring a partner around is to let the relationship wallow for a while instead of caving to pressure.
    6 Oct 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    I thank you APM for this very informative report, you should be the paid IR writer (not meant to be negative;).
    Overall this will make me think twice if I should sell out if the announced Nov. sale is just a one off sale and not a recurring order.

     

    Regarding other automotive use, PbC might also be useful for the growing Asian fleet of e-scooters, I wrote a listed e-scooter company more than a year ago and the ceo answered that his engineers will look into the use of PbC.
    6 Oct 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1524) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding! Now that's what I call being an actively engaged shareholder!
    6 Oct 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    nummik,

     

    I think you may be on to something with PbC's for scooters! There are of course a zillion mopeds in the developing world. As a scooter owner myself, I can vouch that the small engines and carburetors can be a maintenance and reliability headache compared to larger motorcycle engines. The tiny carb jets clog too easily, creating rough idling much like is common with lawn mowers, chainsaws, snow blowers, etc.

     

    Fuel injecting is one solution. However, I never realized until reading your comment that fully electric scooters may make terrific sense. The energy requirement is not that great because mopeds are super lightweight. Also their owners don't expect much acceleration at all from them. At least the small "moped" scooters.

     

    Perhaps it is feasible to replace the complicated and expensive engine-carb-tank-exhaust nonsense with just string of 3 or 4 PbC's and an electric motor? Simplicity itself. It's already been done with fully electric motorcycles using A123 batteries (Killacycle).

     

    Many scooter commuters in Asia just ride a known distance each day. So plug it in overnight and just forget it. No gasoline, breakdowns, or engine maintenance. No noise or smog creation in high density urban areas.
    6 Oct 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    While electric scooters are a nice market, the really big one is e-bikes, which are typically powered by lead-acid batteries. (http://bit.ly/1b2kkVK) While I like the market, I have reservations about how well the PbC will fit the needs of that market.

     

    The PbC's big handicaps in an e-bike application are bulkiness and a sloping voltage curve that's tough to deal with using small and simple power control systems. Over the long-term I expect the electric two wheeled vehicle market ("E2W") to gravitate toward lithium-ion because size and weight are so important in that niche.
    7 Oct 2013, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    <<("E2W") to gravitate toward lithium-ion because size and weight are so important>>

     

    Perhaps. If the cost of PbC falls more than lithium-ion, then that could also be a factor. Likely I think since the PbC is in its infancy. Performance in hot and cold environments for Li-ion I understand is poor compared to PbC, and PbC won't set you on fire in a crash. A few highly publicized scooter accidents turned into fires might send the consumer looking for alternatives. And then there's the PbC's fantastic DCA, without overheating worries

     

    You're probably right but I wouldn't rule out the PbC in two wheeled markets completely. In any case, fully electric scooters I think make tremendous sense for reasonably short commutes.

     

    I can see a day when many more homes will have some off-grid power source providing at least some of the electricity, and using the extra power to charge a vehicle will seem a no brainer since the marginal watt is costless.
    7 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30227) | Send Message
     
    I won't discount any possibilities, but I do think there are probably better choices than the PbC for E2W.
    7 Oct 2013, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    EV sales
    First some general info of movement towards and away from EVs.

     

    Toyota says they don’t want to sell EVs as there is not a market for them at the present battery price/performance. "Two breakthroughs" are needed and won’t likely occur in a decade.

     

    The Chrysler part of Chrysler/Fiat has decided it must build a car with a plug EV despite not wanting to. (As it isn’t a money making proposition.) Chrysler had an EV line up all within a year or two of production in 2009 before it went BK and Fiat bought it. (Chrysler ENVI line up had 4 cars in it.) They are advertising for employees.

     

    Renault has finally decided they need to move back a bit from EVs only and start working on a PHEV. It is not expected before 2020.
    A hybrid is expected in 2014.

     

    Cars with a plug sold:
    In Sept. 8,027- 8,127 depending on who’s guess, for how may Teslas were sold, is used.
    Aug 11,073
    August was by far the highest month for EV sales.
    While sales were well in Sept. (it’s still the 4th best month to date.)

     

    Volt : Sales 1,766 in Sept. 3,351in Aug. (Also Volt sales were down 38% from last year.)
    GM has now sold 16,760 Volts, which is a 2.5% increase over this time last year. Without more incentives I would not bet on total sales for the year topping last.
    Despite the $5,000 price drop in buying the Volt the lease price was mostly unchanged. Which made for an apparently temporary wave of buyers. However as most lease, being a far better deal, the sustainability of that wave seems unlikely.

     

    Leaf: sold 1,953 in Sept. down from 2,420 in Aug. But nearly double last year. Inside EVs thinks they have a problem which has led to a shortage of electrodes.

     

    Tesla: sales, as always this is a guess
    Insideevs says: Around 1000 sales in North America (US and Canada)
    Hybridcars dashboard says 1,100 US sales
    According to Inside EVs; Tesla is delivering some cars in North America in under a month and has Zero backlog.
    The official response on the fire. Which is It’s not are fault and an ICE would have killed everyone on board. I understand they have the car now but as they had not yet seen the car at the time, their statement is about as useful as an anecdote.
    I happen to have an anecdote. My father was driving down the highway; we hit something that caused a big thump under the car. A few miles later we passed some people we knew, who saw the trail of gas flying out behind the car. We stopped and my father plugged the hole with epoxy. After getting more gas, we continued with our journey. As we were headed out on a camping vacation, I can guarantee no mechanic looked at it for over a week; if ever.

     

    Chevrolet SPARK EV: sales 78 Sept. 102 sold in Aug 103 in July. (July was its first month)
    This is a short time to be claiming a slowdown in sales. GM says they are pleased with the sales and has no plan to sell the car nationally. Essentially a compliance car for Ca. and Or.

     

    SMART ForTwo Electric Drive: Sold 137 in Sept. 182 in Aug.

     

    Mitsubishi i-MiEV: sold 20 in Sept. 30 in Aug. (they are doing an inventory sell off and have not delivered any in several months.)
    Mitsubishi has stated they will bring the mew model to the US at some undetermined date in the future.
    The Outlander PHEV which was announced to be sold in the US, has been delayed a few times already and is now pushed back to 2015.

     

    Fiat 500e: These people also don’t want to talk about EV sales. The guess is about 50.
    Shortly after sales began a half shaft breakage problem arose. The initial fix didn’t work and all were given a safety recall. Apparently all that hadn’t been delivered; needed to be recalled as well. Towards the end of the month dealers finally began getting inventory. However Fiat corporate advertised $999 down $199 a month. With a hidden “If the dealer agrees to give you the deal”, clause. Arriving at the dealership and finding out the deposit they put down expecting a $199 a month lease, may be over $300 a month. This is a good way to tick off some early adopters.
    Going from 0 to an inventory of 120 unsold units in 10 days is an impressive feat when all were presold months ago.

     

    Honda is selling 2 models both for compliance
    Honda Fit EV: Sold 35 in Sept 66 in Aug. There are 4 in inventory.
    Accord Plug-In: sold 51 in Sept. 44 in Aug. Honda hasn’t yet lowered the price of the Accord PHEV.

     

    Toyota
    Prius Plug-In: Sold 1,152 in Sept. 1,791 in Aug. This is their second best month this year. Toyota needs over 1,500 a month from now on to equal last year.
    Rav 4 EV Sold 167 in Sept. in Aug. 231.

     

    Ford
    Ford Focus Electric: Sold 110 in Sept. 175 in Aug.
    The only two EV cars with new highs are PHEVs from Ford. Both have grown fairly steadily this year. (C-Max had a wave of early sales last year.)
    Fusion Energi: Sold 750 in Sept. 600 in Aug
    C-Max Energi: Sold 758 in Sept. 621 in Aug.

     

    Fisker Karma: Sold 5 there are 45 left.
    The DOE is auctioning off Fisker’s debt this month. The company could be revived or parted off. You could own an auto maker.
    How does Frog autos sound?
    We’ll make you the hoppiest car owner around.
    With the TG deal of the week: Put a little bounce in your step!
    The Cardiac special: Don’t miss this deal or you’ll Croak.

     

    ;-)

     

    Maybe I should be Axion’s new sales team?
    Well ….. maybe not. Big sigh…
    6 Oct 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    Other Electric vehicle stuff.

     

    VIA motors makes PHEV pickup trucks.
    VIA Motors Signs $20 Million Deal With DoE For Corporate Fleets, Will Start Selling To Public In November
    http://bit.ly/1e4IssB
    VIA Motors, maker of the plug-in VTRUX (it’s a Silverado) and fronted by Bob Lutz, has signed a $20 million dollar with the DoE to make it easier to supply fleets (including public agencies and utilities), with their 35-40 mile truck.

     

    BYD Electric Bus Andino-12 Wraps Up 2 Week Trial: Real-World Range is 174 Miles
    http://bit.ly/1e4ItwB

     

    Karabag Looking to Convert 20,000 Iconic VW Beetles to Electric in 2014
    Production has ended for the beetles years ago so they will buy used Beetles. (I'm assuming they will be imported to Germany.) Then a $15,000 conversion and a battery lease price of $133 a month and Viola. (Approaching a lease price of a new EV.) you have an underpowered, used car, not designed to carry the weight of a BEV.

     

    Even Insideevs thinks this is a dumb idea.
    http://bit.ly/1e4ItwF
    One hopes the conversion includes better brakes, suspension, steering and wider tires for stopping.
    7 Oct 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message
     
    A case study By Ecoult
    on the PJM interconnect using the Ultra battery

     

    MM) 0:43

     

    It provides 3MW of continuous frequency regulation services to the grid of PJM Interconnection,

     

    The equipment used for the PJM demonstration includes:
    • 15 kV switchgear
    • 69 kV bus and fused switch
    • 4 battery strings- one containerized string and three strings installed in building
    • 1,920 UltraBatteries® that combine an asymmetric ultra-capacitor and a lead-acid battery in one unit
    • 1 power conversion system
    • 1 master programmable controller
    • 1 battery monitoring system

     

    From EPRI
    http://bit.ly/16Nkcfp

     

    A Case Study on the Demonstration of Storage for Simultaneous Voltage Smoothing and Peak Shifting
    Also the Ultrabattery.
    6 Oct 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4195) | Send Message
     
    Nice finds, frog. Seems the Ultrabatteries used in the system store 1.5 kW each (3MW / 1,920 batteries).
    7 Oct 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (722) | Send Message
     
    RA, I have an item that might interest you.

     

    Bought a Troy-Bilt roto-tiller in 1975 that simply refused to start last week. Hadn't been run in two years. Every year I run it dry for wintering. Anyway I took it to a Mennonite small engine repair shop that sells BCA tillers (Italian) in the hopes they would do me well. They did, replacing the carb. Anyway, they said, "if it were not for fouled carburetors we would have to close our shop." (!) Took the tiller home and though the engine now runs fine, the tiller is simply too far gone. Will go buy a new tiller today.

     

    Here's the item: They were adamant that what I should do is find a gas station that sells alcohol free gasoline (which I have. Drove to New Castle with a tankful to clean out my injectors, lines etc.) and use that in all my small gasoline engines. They said to double the recommended dosage of "Sea-foam" and run it all season long. Then to winterize, run the engine dry, pour in pure Sea-foam in the tank and pull it through. They said any of those stabilizers will work, but SF is what they sold. So there you have it.

     

    Another interesting anecdote: I have a Stihl chain saw. I asked the John Deere dealer that carries Stihl here what to do about the inevitable winter need to cut limbs, etc. They sold me a qt. can of Stihl pre-mix. $12 comes to mind. Anyway, Stihl recommends the fuel for winter use or for folks who need but rarely use their small engines. The fuel is premium gasoline, alcohol free with synthetic oil mix. The shelf life is 7 (seven) years if left unopened. !!! If you open the can (break the seal) the shelf life drops to two years. WoW ! Strictly two cycle use, but still, that's amazing.
    7 Oct 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1877) | Send Message
     
    VW,

     

    Yes small engines can be a pain. I go electric with all my yard tools excepting a pressure washer (gas has more power) and a chain saw (burnt out an electric chain saw motor after 1 day).

     

    Good to know about ethanol free gas and double stabilizer. I've heard a number of "recipes" for keeping small carburetors from gumming up. Had some luck running 93 octane too.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1777) | Send Message
     
    VW,
    I bought a used Troy-Bilt yard vacuum and chipper (the real one, not the knock off they are selling now with the Troy-Bilt name on it) a few years ago with an 8hp Briggs and Stratton engine on it. The previous owner was also adamant about only putting alcohol free gasoline into it and draining it over the winter. I tend to just run it dry before I put it away for the winter but I have used 10% alcohol gasoline in it without a problem. What I do have to do every year, the first time I start it or if it has sat for a few months, is to take the air filter off of it and spray carburetor cleaner into the vent. This usually will get it to turn over. Sometimes that will only get it to turn over, but not keep going, so what I have found is that you can keep spraying the cleaner into the vent and the engine will keep turning over, using this as gas, until it is able to get any water in the fuel line burnt off and get the gasoline flowing. Just something to keep in mind next time before you go buy a new carb. or get it serviced at a shop.
    7 Oct 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    Concentrator is very quiet today! Whats happening? :)
    7 Oct 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (407) | Send Message
     
    The wind is calm. Take the opportunity and listen to to the corn.
    http://bit.ly/GDPgSg
    7 Oct 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (738) | Send Message
     
    My understanding is that there is growing unease in the markets due to the clowns in Washington DC.

     

    It should be a time of growing optimism with government and corporations trying to spend their budgets before the end of financial year. Apparently not this year.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    You're right, Albert.

     

    The political situation is really not unusual, but the distrust of the current crop of cretins running the government is deeper than ever before.

     

    Folks have (in the past) always known that in this sort of game of "chicken", the participants had at least SOME common sense, and would pull back from the brink before the catastrophe...

     

    With THIS crew in Washington, there is the very real fear that they don't HAVE any common sense, and are going to crash the country right over the cliff.

     

    There's an old, saying, ie, "You could hear a pin drop".

     

    And then another: "You could cut the fear with a knife".

     

    Yep. We're there.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    For whatever it is worth, I finished my trip and can answer any questions about my report on the annual meeting. Post them here or send me a private note.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1021) | Send Message
     
    RE: your comment, "If you believe Tom Granville then that statement was all you really need except for figuring out how to deal with the PIPE."
    .........................

     

    Did TG say ANYTHING about how he might try to, or be able to mitigate some of the effects of the PIPE? Such as using new revenues to pay installments instead of shares; or pounding the streets to try to secure other kinds of financing, to perhaps buy back some of those shares as their being unloaded; or perhaps looking at a share buy backs with future revenues to ameliorate the effects of the massive dilution on existing shareholders before the PIPE, etc.

     

    Does he even have anything like this in his consciousness at all? I just realized that last question might be just a bit too much for you to ascertain. :-) --- Some here seem to think the PIPE is over and done with, and time to move on. To me it feels like we're still early to Mid-PIPE, and the closer we get to .10, the more concern I have, and I wonder if this why TG checks the pps daily now instead of weekly. Any thoughts or insights would be appreciated.
    7 Oct 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    What was your impression of TG and was there any further comments about near-term significant revenue?
    7 Oct 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9552) | Send Message
     
    Wayne IO, Sales or agreements. Once again we get an "I can feel it" from TG and we're moving through the window with nothing. And Vani chirps in on the 999 and then back peddles. Market is not going to accept any more wet finger direction of the breeze assessment. Especially with pipers steering the ship.
    7 Oct 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, just went to prior APH and read your story. Missed that APH sitting on the sidelines. You answered my question. Unfortunately, it didn't leave me feeling all warm and fuzzy.
    7 Oct 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I meant that if you believed TG's statement that the company will not need future financing events then the only thing that would cause you to hesitate buying more shares is if the stock price falls below $.10. Of course, at that level Axion will likely have to repay its debt in cash and even if it is in stock, the share count can increase dramatically if say we bottomed out at $.05.

     

    As far as the PIPE goes, it seemed Mr. Granville was glad that it is behind him and screwing around with financing is probably the absolute last thing he wants to do. I do have a foggy recollection that someone asked a question about the PIPE such as whether they could pay it off early or whatever. I don't remember the answer but it must have been no or I would have remembered it.

     

    I will say that I regret not asking a question about the PIPE and specifically what would happen if it goes below $.10.

     

    I wholeheartedly agree with you that we are mid-PIPE and that it will be a ball and chain on us for a month or two after the last true-up until the PIPErs have sold every single share and that represents a risk factor. At the minimum, we know we are at the mercy of the PIPErs.

     

    TG does seem to have the attitude that it is behind us and in my opinion JP certainly projects that attitude. As much as we all have learned from and are indebted to John Petersen, I think we have to recognize that there are some areas where he can't help us. Generally speaking, I believe that John knows there are some things he just can't say without them becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy and hurting the company and people with whom he is close.

     

    With that in mind, I know I have to think for myself when it comes to certain issues. John can show us the promised land but he doesn't know where and when we'll find the bridge into it. I must have a thing for Moses analogies and Axion. While it might be too late to help, I do think that Mr. Granville should have stepped down a year ago in favor of an outside CEO who is more industry and sales focused.
    7 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    Bang: I mentioned that TG seemed to have more energy this year. As you know, he stood by his previous commitment on a sale and repeatedly referred to that commitment and also said on several occasions to the larger audience that "you know I'm not prone to make such promises".

     

    In this case I agree with the gentleman who I think is one of the more rude posters on this board who responds to negative comments with "you should sell all your shares if you doubt/don't believe/////......"

     

    In other words, TG has been as definitive as he can be that a sale is coming. I believe him. Now, will that sale be $500k? Will there be more than 1? Will the revenue come at some distant date in the future? Those are open questions and it is quite possible we will be disappointed but I have no doubt that a sale will be announced as promised.

     

    As an aside, if the revenue is less than $1m I believe the stock will go down on the news.

     

    The other clue relates to Tom Granville's assertion that the company won't need to raise additional funds unless it grows faster than expected. To me, that means the company needs $5-$10m in incremental PbC revenue over the next 9-12 months and needs to be at break-even by the end of 2014. That would probably require at least $5m in PbC revenue in Q4 2014.

     

    7 Oct 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1021) | Send Message
     
    "As far as the PIPE goes, it seemed Mr. Granville was glad that it is behind him and screwing around with financing is probably the absolute last thing he wants to do."
    .........................

     

    That's why I continue to be so angry with him. He got us into this PIPE mess, apparently because he felt he HAD to do it. And now he seems to have accepted his fate. Why the he** isn't he on the phone with Maxim and some of those PIPERs and calling them on what they're doing, and how it's so contrary to what they apparently led him to believe.

     

    Why be content to just sit on your hands and accept this nonsense? Show a little leadership; try to make something happen. If you can't, you can't, but at least TRY! Perhaps he thinks the pps is something he shouldn't have to worry about, but it certainly seems the ridiculous conditions in the PIPE deal make it an imperative he become extremely concerned about it.
    7 Oct 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately TG is not the best man for the job or Axion would not be in this situation! It is what it is! But to think he is able to work his way out of the situation the PIPERS have us in is just a pipe Dream!

     

    The only hope is TG is not reaching too far when he claims "significant orders" and they truly do show up!
    7 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18018) | Send Message
     
    WIO: I think it would be necessary to weigh the chances of having any beneficial effect before expending time and energy and any other resources pursuing any remedial effort.

     

    The one thing I think *might* be worthwhile is to monitor and make sure none exceed their 15% selling in a day. That should be cheap and easy to do and could provide a strong tool if any violations are found.

     

    Beyond that, I don't see much that could be accomplished.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    7 Oct 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (530) | Send Message
     
    I agree with RBrun that you should blame TG for getting into the position where he had to take the PIPE deal and not being able to mitigate some of the more ridiculous provisions. However, chewing on him because he's not fighting Maxim after the fact is pretty pointless. He might very well have tried to push back but there's no point in telling us that because you can be pretty certain that not much would have come of it.

     

    Also, if you were in TG's shoes you'd want to de-emphasize the PIPE because A. It's wasn't a win and B. You want people to be positive on the company to prevent the stock from going below $.10. Remember, if he can do that then you can effectively consider the PIPE behind us.

     

    7 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1718) | Send Message
     
    RB-
    Though there is a part of me that wants to agree that TG is not the best man for the job, he is the man who is on the job and we will not know, until the future, if he was the best man.

     

    For instance, he is likely to be fairly rigid once his mind is made up and we know that he strongly values his experience as a negotiator.

     

    In the short run, those can be difficult attributes. He may alienate some folks by holding closely to doing things his way and negotiating...without really negotiating, for instance, not lowering prices when others might for a quick sale. I have a hunch that is what happened with Rosewater...and they seem to be back.

     

    In the long run, these may be just the attributes that will bring us the success we want.

     

    We all want him to be the guy who runs Telsa. I don't think that guy would try to run a battery company.
    7 Oct 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13537) | Send Message
     
    Great thots, thotdoc, and I really prize your contributions...

     

    But don't lump me in with the crowd that wants TG to morph into Musk (or some showy facsimile).

     

    I just think TG's a problem, and the solution might indeed be to put him on the BOD...

     

    So long as we also replace him as CEO soon after.
    7 Oct 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1593) | Send Message
     
    --- ex--c-u-s-e me, thotdoc, please very kindly do not put words into other people's mouths -- especially mine. I want NOTHING to do with the 'guy who runs Tesla' -- I would run away screaming from just about anything that st. elon had his fingers in.

     

    personally, i'm rather tired of people doing the whole arm-chair quarterbacking thing and whining endlessly about TG and the pipe. my experience is limited and i acknowledge my status as a retired village idiot . . . but from where I've been, what I've seen and what I've done to try to keep the works open and customers/stakeholders satisfied, it's a hell-of-a-lot tougher job than most here understand. And it's easy to second-guess from the (relative) cheap seats.

     

    If you don't like the guy who's running the company then you're a fool not to get out.

     

    just sayin......
    7 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • User432382
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    APM,

     

    Was there any discussion about the 48V micro-hybrid architecture, how it compares to the current PbC two battery solution, if the PbC could be configured into a 48V product, how it would compare to the 48V lithium offerings already being announced, and/or if Axion is currently doing any work in this area? Thanks.
    7 Oct 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2770) | Send Message