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  • Axion Power Concentrator 273: Oct. 9 '13: APMarshall AGM Notes; 10Q Filing For Q2; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives 413 comments
    Oct 8, 2013 6:13 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Notes on the 9/26/13 AGM with thanks to APMarshall62
    The following is primarily a compilation of my copious notes from the 9/26/13 meeting with a lesser amount of my own analysis added (it should be clear which is which). I made little effort to edit it down as one would when writing an article since I expect you all want as much raw information as possible.

    It is mostly chronological but there are places where I pulled together information on the same point from various events. I believe I've made that clear but have probably missed some instances. Also, I discuss some points in depth in paragraph format. For specific notes that I don't discuss in depth I use bullet points to separate them from the text and hopefully make this easier to read.

    The main events for which I compiled notes include a Wednesday night dinner with John Petersen and several folks from ePower (also three of us Axionistas), the formal part of the annual meeting, the presentations (Vani Dantam and Mike Romeo) and subsequent Q&A that included Tom Granville, the two plant tours (battery facility and electrode facility), the ePower demo, and finally, the closing cocktail party.

    ePower Dinner:
    Jay Bowman, ePower's founder, struck me as a classic entrepreneur: He wouldn't fit in the corporate world but is smart, creative, and driven. He didn't share a lot of new info, but I thought it was very interesting how he described his system's interaction with the battery.

    Essentially, he said that a graph of the battery usage would show second by second changes even at steady speed on level terrain. That was music to my ears because the more charge/discharge events the better the fit for the PbC.

    Note: The next day Tom Granville mentioned that ePower had reported dramatic improvement in the performance of the automated carbon sheeting based batteries (the improvement was so dramatic because of the very specific nature of the ePower application with the very rapid give/take of power). I didn't fully understand the limited explanation he gave - it was something I hadn't heard previously. Bottom line of this side point was that the ePower application seems like an absolutely perfect fit for the PbC battery. In fact, much better than even the locomotive application, which doesn't have the extremely rapid fluctuations in giving and receiving power.

    Jay also mentioned that the ability of the PbC to receive charge was the key differentiator vs. Lithium ion.

    • AGM batteries needed to be plugged in for over ten hours after only a few hours of driving. However, even with this accommodation, they only lasted 4,000 - 5,000 miles before degrading.
    • The PbC state of charge can fluctuate 15-20% say during a sustained climb. I was glad to see the relatively deep maximum discharge vs. the 1-2% we'd see in an auto stop-start application.
    • Jay Bowman said that truckers hate batteries and he didn't think truckers would do the 36 hour trickle charge once every 6-12 months to top off the batteries. However, he said Axion keeps upping the life expectancy of the battery in this application and believes it will last for the entire four year rebuild cycle without the benefit of the trickle top-off.

    Jay spoke at length about the new 6.7 liter engine (the first conversion is in process). In steady state, the generator needs to produce 72 - 74 Kw of energy to cruise at low highway speed (55mph I assume) on a level road. The 4 liter engine produces about 93Kw after discounting the parasitic loads.

    The Cummins 6.7 liter engine (used in pickup trucks) produces 240hp or approximately 128Kw after discounting parasitic loads. It burns 6.8 gallons per hour when powering a 120Kw generator. So, if the truck is driven at 68mph it should average nearly 10 miles per gallon. The dramatic increase in available energy indicated by these calculations is the reason Jay is very confident that the 6.7 liter engine will not be underpowered.

    Yesterday, John Petersen e-mailed me some additional information along these lines. I was particularly concerned about the truck still being underpowered since the system will still use the same 115Kw generator (can be over-rated to 128Kw for 15 minutes per hour) and the same 150hp motor (can be over-rated to 380hp for up to 15 minutes per hour). While the horsepower rating is a little less than a conventional rig, the torque from the electric motor more than offsets that concern at low speeds and largely offsets it at higher speeds. He did say that fitting in a larger electric motor would be difficult given space constraints in the tractor frame.

    Note: See Vani Dantam's discussion of hybrid and EV trucks for more info on the above topics.

    We discussed ePower's plan to build ten demonstration tractors. They would be delivered to key trucking companies to use as they wish, for free, for a limited period (a few weeks or months) before they would be asked to lease or purchase the tractor. While Jay was very clear that he didn't know how long the companies would want to test the rig before placing purchase orders, he believed that the test period could be short if the rigs perform as advertised.

    Jay Bowman says he's spoken with a number of trucking executives who have basically said to him "Go away. You know what I want. When you have it come back with something I can drive. If it works, I'll buy it"

    It is important to note that even the four cylinder ePower rig has well under 10,000 miles on it so the ten demonstration rigs will be very important for getting a substantial body of performance data.

    A development that I found to be extremely interesting is that ePower has had an extended conversation with a Turkey-based trucking company about that company shipping a tractor to ePower to rebuild and ship back. This is particularly exciting because diesel fuel is extremely expensive in the EU (nearly $10/gallon) or roughly $2 per mile driven. The calculated payback with such very high fuel prices is under one year.

    One factor that I think isn't being talked about sufficiently is that ePower will need to raise a seven figure sum to implement the plan to build ten demonstration units. JP is working on that issue and discussions with potential funding sources have begun. While the 3rd generation unit will soon be ready, I am concerned that the financing will have to wait for what likely will be several months for testing to be completed. John considers financing events to always be a challenge, but he is confident they will get it done with minimal impact to the timeline. However, I suspect I'm not the only Axionista who is skeptical of such assertions.

    I think the three of us Axionistas at that dinner left with a very high regard for the ePower opportunity. Still, I don't see any follow-up orders beyond the ten rigs until summer 2014 at the earliest.

    Axion Annual Meeting
    At the formal meeting it was reported that 77% of shares were voted with all resolutions passing with 80%+ of votes except the three year issue passed with 75%+. (see the 8K statement that came out Tuesday for the details).

    Bob Averill not present. Family wanted him off the board 3 years ago for what sounded like health reasons.

    Leading CFO candidate at the meeting and Tom Granville introduced him along with the other company employees.

    TG repeated and affirmed his statement that there would be large/significant orders by the next call.

    I think attendance was lower this year than last. The number of Axionistas was similar but my impression was that the number of institutional investors was much less (no questions from institutional investors if I properly recall).

    Presentations
    After the formal meeting, Vani Dantam gave a presentation. Much of his presentation involved bashing Lithium Ion but he also covered a lot of the markets the company is involved with (a broader spectrum of targets than in the past). He was followed by Mike Romeo Senior scientist who gave an introductory presentation on the PbC technology (note: Enders Dickenson left the company a few months ago for family reasons). After the presentations, the two presenters and Tom Granville took questions.

    Vani Dantam presentation:
    In a string, the voltage of PbC batteries is uniform to 1/100th of a volt.

    Lithium Ion bashing:

    • Each cell encased in three steel cases.
    • BMS and thermal factors add 15-40% to cost (I believe this is above cell costs)
    • Operating cost and maintenance add 10-20%
    • LI provides limited power above 40 degrees C (50%) and 0% above 45 degrees. It also provides little power below -10 degrees C.
    • Thermal characteristics (Heat generation) means that a given application requires twice as many (NYSE:KW) LI batteries as PbC.
    • Mentioned the Dreamliner was originally launched without a BMS for the LI batteries. A BMS has subsequently been added. REMARKABLE
    • PbC has 2-4x faster recharge speed vs. LI in partial state of charge.

    Stop start:
    Ford Focus is a $210 option while Chevy Malibu is a $2,200 option. Point was that the automakers haven't really got their arms around the stop-start issue.

    BMW and 5-6 other automakers are working with Axion. 3 of them have told Axion that they aren't happy with AGM. AGM stops working after 3-4 months.

    A European automaker that has been buying Johnson Controls AGM batteries just contacted Axion. They have not been satisfied with the Johnson Controls product.

    Hybrid and EV Trucks
    In current hybrid trucks, all LI batteries do well in the first 1-2 hours until the batteries overheat and shut down. All other hybrid truck manufacturers are working with standard 12-18 liter truck engines rather than using smaller engines (4 liter going to 6.7 liter) running at constant speed as has ePower. Therefore, they will be limited to only incremental fuel economy gains.

    If my recall is accurate Eaton's hybrid truck has sold something like 6000 units and is priced much higher than conventional trucks.

    The ePower hybrid truck has been driven nearly 10,000 miles so far.

    Current truck fleets get on average 5.4 miles per gallon. New trucks average 5.9 mpg.

    The DOE target is 7.3 mpg. ePower is at 8.1 mpg and expects to get to 9.8mpg.

    The fuel economy of a truck can vary widely depending on the experience and incentives of the driver. Trucking company C.R. England has driver incentives and its drivers average 7mpg.

    Part of the improvement is driving more slowly and part is experience with shifting gears.

    Note that the ePower tractor's electric motor uses an automatic transmission and electronic cruise control. This greatly simplifies driving and training requirements for drivers.

    To save space, the fuel tank in the ePower truck is half the size of a standard truck.

    The ePower truck accelerates much better than standard trucks and especially better than the Eaton Hybrid. ePower 0-60 mph with an empty 53 foot trailer is 45 seconds vs. 80 for standard and something like 110 for the Eaton hybrid.

    Axion is also talking to several crane companies. The idea is that like ePower, the PbC will enable them to build their cranes with smaller diesel generators.

    Residential and Community
    Batteries are used to "clean" power.

    California and New Jersey permitting processes now require the use of batteries with solar power systems.

    Axion has created a product that provide 3KWH (4 KW) of storage as well as a 10KWH product.

    Axion storage product was part of the design for a five car electric car recharging station (which I believe included solar) for a Caribbean Island nation.

    Hawaii, Caribbean islands, and Latin America frequently have power costs of $.40-$.50 per Kwh. With solar now costing $.25 Kwh, battery storage makes economic sense.

    Smart Grid
    Utilities require 10% (sunny areas like CA) to 40% (cloudy areas like NE US) of solar capacity in storage.

    PbC batteries used to "smooth" solar power during the day and to provide frequency regulation at night. The latter role is usually more lucrative.

    Mike Romeo - Senior Scientist
    Mike is pretty young and while he wouldn't confirm it, he would appear to be the successor for Enders Dickenson who a few months ago left the company for family reasons.

    His presentation was pretty standard stuff as far as most Axionistas would be concerned. He talked about eliminating crystals and CDI (Concave down increasing) charging patterns which explains why PbC batteries self-equalize their state of charge when in a string (btw the cells within a battery function in the exact same way).

    He reported that the Axion Powercube DSR (don't remember what the acronym means) or grade that the PbC has earned with PJM is 92% vs. the 70% minimum.

    After the meeting I asked him a question about the BMW test protocol which involved the rest periods, which are very hard on lead-acid batteries. He mentioned an experiment Axion ran where they rested the batteries for five minutes after each event instead of the standard ten seconds. This regime ruined AGM batteries in a matter of a few days. This seems very interesting to me. I wonder if in the future we could see applications that combine AGM and conventional lead acid with PbC based on the idea that the PbC batteries can be used to keep the AGM batteries in a fully charged state. For example, in the streetlight scenario maybe one lead acid and one PbC battery could be used to lower the total system cost.

    Question and Answer Period (Granville, Dantam, Romeo)

    • Tom Granville was asked about the next financing event. He said that the company would only need to raise money if it needed expansion capital, i.e. it would only need to raise more money if growth is greater or comes quicker than expected. I found that to be a hugely important statement.
    • Axion is in ongoing discussions with 2 lead acid battery companies. One is customer driven (presumably BMW and their supplier Johnson Controls / Varta). The second was described as internally driven by a desire to market a product with the capabilities of the PbC.
    • Mr. Granville said that these partner discussions did not involve the partner making the electrodes. He said the companies are working to "validate our product on their line". To me this seemed to be unchanged from the last conference call when he said that the potential partner had successfully built PbC batteries on their line. He did say that testing of the batteries vs. those assembled in New Castle was ongoing.
    • Several minutes later in response to another question he stated that Axion would be open to licensing the electrode and carbon sheeting processes as part of an incremental implementation that started with the entity buying all the complete batteries that Axion could manufacture in its facilities, followed by the partner buying all the electrodes Axion could manufacture, and then all the carbon sheeting Axion could manufacture. Note: It was somewhere around this point where Tom Granville laughed and said that Axion would never partner with Exide.

      I was surprised. It would appear that Mr. Granville signaled that Axion is prepared to be more flexible on licensing than it would have appeared to be in the past. Still, one can see that the technology sharing under such an agreement would only take place after a series of confidence building measures were implemented over a period of years.

    • Vani Dantam talked more about the Lithium Ion battery industry. He said that domestic LI companies had an 18-20% cost advantage over imported LI batteries due to government subsidies and to a lesser extent reduced shipping costs. He did say that Axion faced a little bit of an uphill battle against LI because the latter has a longer, more mature, operating history.
    • Vani stated that ePower trucks are only slightly heavier than conventional trucks with the additional weight of the batteries being partially offset by the smaller fuel tank and smaller engine.
    • I think it was TG who said that Axion met with Rosewater recently and that Rosewater was currently at the CEDIA show in Denver. Note, Jay of ePower reported that he also met recently with Rosewater.
    • In response to a question about the Asian automaker that Axion first mentioned roughly a year ago (Axionistas speculate it is Toyota or Hyundai), Tom Granville had stated that Axion has recently signed an NDA with another division of that company. He had nothing to add on the automobile side. I presume this would imply that the company in question is Hyundai since Toyota has relatively few non-automotive businesses and Hyundai Heavy Industries would seem to have lots of potential for utilizing the PbC (world's largest shipbuilder as well as divisions that provide equipment for electrical utilities, construction, and green energy).
    • On two occasions during the meeting Vani Dantam backed off from the October estimate and referred the questioner to Norfolk Southern's statement that the 999 would be operational by year-end 2014 (just kidding, it's year-end 2013).

    Other Events (Plant Tours, Cocktail party, and side discussions)
    As far as the shop floor impression goes, the battery shop seemed busier than last year. Last year some of the melting pots for lead (I know that's not their real name) had broken down. This year, I think all of them were operating. Also, as JP noted, all three lines were operating.

    The electrode building was the opposite. I'm not sure I saw a single person on the shop floor who wasn't involved in the tour. Last year, the electrode line wasn't operating either, but the operating staff was present and talked with us.

    Overall, the facilities were neat and well maintained. At one point, I can't remember who said it, but one of the long-time employees said the facility looked better than it ever has in their previous experience. An example of this was a section of the concrete floor in the main plant that had recently been replaced. I don't remember it being a problem last year but maybe it was replaced due to some work that had taken place under the floor, but nevertheless, it seemed to be something the person with our tour felt should reflect positively on the company.

    • During the plant tour we were told that there has been continued significant and steady improvements in the electrode line throughput.
    • Prototype 3Kwh and 10Kwh Residential Cubes were on display as well as a streetlight application.
    • Axion has determined that a 3.6 Kwh battery paired with 1.5Kw solar panel system will provide a reduction of 30% in the power bill for a residential scenario involving a home with a baseload approximately the same size as the solar panel output.
    • The inverter used in the 10Kwh system was a Princeton DRI 10 model.
    • The street light was a an LED system supported by 2 x 30 HT batteries. Fully charged, the batteries could support the light for 100 hours of continuous operation. When asked why PbC, it was stated that lead acid batteries would have to be massively oversized to support the application to keep partial state of charge to a minimum. Lithium Ion batteries can have issues with the temperature. My theory on why PbC in this application is that the customer would like to standardize as much as possible. Also, given the time lag to receive replacement parts and the expense of shipping heavy replacement batteries, a long lasting but more expensive solution like the PbC would make more economic sense in the island scenario.

    That evening, during the cocktail party, I followed up with Mr. Granville about his statement that Axion would not need an additional capital raise unless growth exceeds expectations. I characterized my question to him as "sustaining funding" vs. "growth capital". He disputed that characterization but didn't specify why.

    I tried to get more information by saying that I'd assume if the company didn't need more capital it must be near cash flow break-even, which would imply that he must be expecting substantial sales over the next 12 months to get the $15m or more in incremental revenue that would be needed. He disputed the $15m number saying it would depend on product mix. I countered by saying that I'm assuming all of that would be PbC revenue (implying the highest margin business). He laughed and said that he'd like to get 40% margins but they are making proposals at lesser levels of profitability (My $15m number does imply roughly 40% margins but Mr. Granville was the one that brought up that number. BTW, I think that should be the appropriate long-run goal for Axion). I then went on to say that it seemed clear that ePower and Norfolk Southern and BMW weren't going to ramp up that fast and I asked him if he was expecting that the grid business would ramp up anything near that quickly. He didn't say anything confirming what I was saying but I think he would have argued with me if he thought I was off base. Do take the above as my analysis only and other than the 40% margin statement, please don't put much stock in my reading of Mr. Granville's body language.

    • An interesting aside to this conversation was when I suggested to Mr. Granville his statement was reminiscent of his 200-300% mistake back in 2011. He said that when he made that mistake he was thinking 2012 vs. 2010, which would have included substantial growth in the flooded contract. He admitted it was a mistake on his part and mentioned that Chuck Trego told him such as soon as the call ended. Later, I told this to some other Axionistas and they were all skeptical of Mr. Granville's explanation. I suppose we'll never know if this is true, but I guess it's at least as likely an explanation as the theory that Axion was expecting a 50 locomotive order from Norfolk Southern.
    • I asked Mr. Granville about the second half of the 2012 financing. He said that group planned to invest (and actually revised upward the $s during the process) and did what he characterized as an unusually thorough amount of due diligence, including calling customers (which to me would seem to be a normal level of due diligence). That group eventually withdrew for two reasons. Their financial situation weakened during the due diligence process and there appeared to be some issue specific to that organization's leader (ie not having anything to do with Axion). So, that leads me to think that they were involved with three groups: The 2012 group, the strategic investor, and Maxim.

    A few minutes later, someone asked TG what market segments he was most excited about. He answered the same way Vani Dantam answered the question when it had been posed to him a half hour previously: First grid and second, trucking (ePower plus other opportunities). To me this answer added weight to the theory that Axion is expecting a lot of grid business over the next year.

    The following is purely a guess so take it with a shaker of salt.

    I think some Caribbean Island is going to announce a $100m initiative with the consortium of which Axion is a part to install a large number of solar panels along with energy storage/grid management, and energy conservation measures.

    I'll pick St. Lucia as my straw man for no particular reason. The country used 310m Kwh in 2012. At $.50 per Kwh (the number Vani Dantam used as a cost for oil generated electricity), that would be $155m spent on electricity.

    I estimate that each 5% of its total electricity supply switched to solar would cost about $30m and would require about $1m worth of (presumably) Axion power cubes at the 10% solar capacity to battery storage ratio for sunny places that Vani mentioned in his presentation.

    So, very roughly speaking a $100m purchase order could get a system that would generate 15% of electricity used. Such a system would require $3m worth of power cubes. All for a country of 160,000 people.
    END OF GUESS.

    In summary, I learned more than I expected but not enough to get me to go out and immediately buy more stock. Did I look Mr. Granville in the eye and decide he's a good or bad guy? No. BTW, he seemed "healthier" this year (he told me that last year he'd returned the day before the meeting from an overseas trip) for whatever that is worth.

    I would be very, very surprised if the grid sale (or whatever it is) doesn't happen, but the financing was an absolute disaster that will act as a drag on the stock until the PIPE is over next spring. It will take very, very good news to overcome that and I've been conditioned over the years not to expect upside surprises from Axion.

    In any case, the annual meeting was well worth attending and a lot of fun. It was a pleasure to finally meet John Petersen, and all the Axionistas are smart and interesting folks.
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    A BIG THANKS TO APMARSHALL62 FOR A WONDERFUL CONTRIBUTION!
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    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Q2 2013 10Q Results Filing by Axion

    Axion Power International's CEO Discusses Q2 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Axion Power Investor Relations Access to Conference Call Replay and Downloadable MP3 (click the microphone icon labeled "2nd Quarter 2013 Earnings Webcast" for "Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 11:00 a.m. ET. Registration required

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    Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE

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    CORRECTED: Axion Power: Is There Light At The End Of The PIPE?

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    Axion Power Receives Additional Purchase Order From EPower Engine Systems To Supply PbC® Batteries And Battery Management Systems For (10) Class 8 Heavy-Duty Trucks --

    The purchase order is an extension of the existing agreement between Axion and ePower and further validates the performance of the PbC batteries in this hybrid application. At ePower's current specifications, each conversion kit System would require 56 PbC batteries and the PbC battery management system (NYSE:BMS). Axion values each truck conversion battery order at in excess of $20,000.00.

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    FocalPoint Analytics' important comment on Axion Power's recent Financing Transaction

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    Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For ePower

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

    Excerpts from the First Quarter 10-Q --

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

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    Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (through 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Price.png

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Volume

    Axion Power Market Cap, Share Count and 200-day Volume:

    Link to JP's write-up on this graph in the header of APC #248 --

    (as of 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Mkt Cap

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    Monthly Volume and FINRA Short Percentage

    The FINRA short tracking graph is beginning to look like it may be a reasonable proxy for selling by the PIPErs. It was an extremely useful tool for tracking the big uglies a couple years ago and so far it seems to be providing the same type of information. If the data does in fact track the PIPErs activity, the lines would suggest that they pounded hard in May to set up a fear dynamic, eased up a bit in June once the angst was established and eased up again in July as the angst gained momentum and the stock price stabilized. [Prior months graphs' comments follow APH] With three days left to go in the month, July is already the all-time volume leader by about 400,000 shares. Unless volume plummets over the next three days, I'm expecting a total volume of more than 15 million shares for the month. It's a lot of selling, but its also a lot of buying and I don't think the buyers are timid or weak.

    (updated through 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Short

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Statistics:

    (updated through 08/17/2013)

    (click to enlarge)8.17.13 APC Comments

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (new edition 10/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
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    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (413)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/10jfhMS

     

    Hello.
    8 Oct 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Pepin
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Deux!
    8 Oct 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Trois
    8 Oct 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    quatrième, a/k/a congeniality.
    8 Oct 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    Tons of rumbling in Canada re: distributed energy storage. This is an area where I think Axion and Rosewater missed out a little based on the delay caused by their marital spat. Hopefully the delay is not fatal to the opportunities.

     

    NRC announces energy storage program to integrate solar PV and wind power into Canada's electricity grid

     

    "By distributing energy storage technologies close to consumers, multiple economic benefits can be provided by a single installation which will reduce costs for end-users. "

     

    http://bit.ly/1gonZRD
    8 Oct 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater is officially "battery agnostic". If someone wants PbC batteries, all they have to do is ask...

     

    Still haven't heard of anyone who has done that yet, though.
    8 Oct 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (694) | Send Message
     
    Now. That Canada and Rosewater have popped up it brings to mind the reported testing being done at Queens University in Ontario.

     

    Any idea as to how that went?
    8 Oct 2013, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (735) | Send Message
     
    Watching my step.
    Jethro Tull- Skating Away On The Thin Ice Of The New Day
    http://bit.ly/16QkkuH
    8 Oct 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    "You must choose. But choose wisely."

     

    http://bit.ly/16QlVAG

     

    For if not.

     

    http://bit.ly/16QlW7v
    8 Oct 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5808) | Send Message
     
    I think it might be helpful in understanding the ramifications of the invocation of the price failure penalty clause if we convert the cash penalty into equivalent Axion sales of batteries for ePower trucks.
    8 Oct 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    12 trucks, out of a million unit target market.
    8 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5808) | Send Message
     
    I make it out as more than that... Here is how I calculate it...

     

    Each ePower truck uses 56 batteries worth $400 each. Multiplying we get $22.4k. So each penalty payment is worth ten ePower trucks in revenue.

     

    However, that $250k penalty is cash from the bottom line while the $22.4k for each Axion equipped ePower truck is revenues, not profits. How much bottom line cash will Axion realize from each truck?

     

    I don't know the margin, but I can plug in some possible figures. For example, assume an upper margin estimate of forty percent. That means each ePower truck brings in $22.4 X .4 = $8,960 in profit. Dividing $250,000 by $8,960 gives us 27.9 ePower trucks. A margin of thirty percent takes it to 37.2 ePower trucks. So each time the 25% cash penalty clause is invoked, it's worth between 28 and 37 equivalent ePower truck sales.

     

    This can of course be re-worked using different assumptions, but I think it's fair to say that a single invocation of the cash penalty clause is equivalent to what many of us would consider a "significant" sales event at this point in time.

     

    As for a million unit target market... I am talking about the hear and now, while the company is under the punishing terms of the PIPE , not some unknown time in the future...
    8 Oct 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2329) | Send Message
     
    FPA,

     

    Heck, the 250k cash penalty is a good portion of Axion's "quarterly" gross profits from their flooded sales.

     

    So yes, every penalty moves Axion backward and offsets any income they would generate by running their battery lines and takes up to 6-8 weeks off their operational runway.

     

    Outside of a Million dollars a month in PbC sales (assuming a generous 25% margin) the punitive affect on Axion's cash decline will make the PIPErs look worse than pay day lenders.

     

    The money "must" be used to create PbC sales asap or Axion would have been better scrounging a few million in loans from management to keep the lights on and instead pair down to a skeleton staff as they await orders which aren't in the near term.
    8 Oct 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5808) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I like that comparison even better Bazooooka... The key point is that each $250k penalty thought of in terms of sales or reduction in operating runway represents a "significant" event at this particular point in time.
    8 Oct 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    FPA, I'd expect the "apparent" margins to look very high initially because Axion is not yet a steady state manufacturing business. As such their variable costs will not change much while they are building low PbC volumes for initial small customer requirements. My thought process only applies to raising lower levels of short term cash and burn rate which I think is the exercise.
    8 Oct 2013, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3892) | Send Message
     
    "Dividing $250,000 by ...." implies the penalty is assessed against $1M while each monthly draw/conversion to equity is $500K is it not?

     

    What capital amount does the cash penalty apply to?
    8 Oct 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2329) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, no sure but I think it was said that if we pay in cash than the payments are in 1M increments. I assumed monthly but maybe its bi-monthly.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1465) | Send Message
     
    It's entirely possible that if Axion took the $250k in likely penalty (or even more) and bought back 2.5m shares of stock with it to support share price, that we'd be FAR better off than to pay the penalty. If it were certain they could prevent a penalty (VWAP failure) by buying back stock, then certainly we'd be far better off. I imagine buying back stock is prohibited in the PIPE terms though.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1422) | Send Message
     
    Would you mind faxing that idea to Axion?
    9 Oct 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Axion doesn't have the money. They cannot use restricted funds for such a scheme, and their remaining operating funds as of June 30 were just $2.8mm (3 months later, even with payouts from their Gang of .25 "allowance", they must be tight on cash).

     

    I agree with JP that they are not in immediate danger of BK, but if they start doing this sort of thing...
    9 Oct 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3892) | Send Message
     
    Agree with Trip that available funds could be too limited. OTOH, some info tidbits suggest non-financing related Q3 revenues could be greater than those observed in Q2.

     

    Q2 10Q definition of sales included "classic" AGM and racing car batteries (TurboStart subsidiary) as in prior quarters, but referenced for the first time sales of AGM batteries as well as FLABs. JP reported that all three battery assembly lines were running at time of the annual meeting with one producing FLABs (toll contract), one producing AGMs, and one producing PbCs, prototypes for testing, etc. Toll contract production could now include AGMs as well as FLABs and generate a bit more net profit.

     

    The PGM-wired PowerCube in New Castle is now available for FR duty 5 days a week versus 3 days in earlier quarters when the PC was used for product development and testing. Might not be much additional revenue, but FR services in Q3 could be seasonally high and revenues would fall straight to bottom line.

     

    Now that Axion has marketed some of its R&D tax credits (loss carryovers?) it could do so again.

     

    Without mentioning unit volume or revenue total, TG stated in this year's Q2 cc that PbC batch sales occurred after end of Q2.
    9 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Rosewater is going with Eaton inverters for their newer offerings. Not sure if this is what they used in the past for their double inversion high end unit.

     

    http://bit.ly/16QrgrE
    8 Oct 2013, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    I'm gonna go out a limb here and say that the PIPE'ers do NOT want the VWAP below .10 and we will, in fact, see a floor here (at .10+) for the foreseeable future. Tomorrow's trading may prove me instantly wrong, but we'll see.

     

    I just wanted to go on record with my thinking.

     

    Personally, I think the MMs and PIPE'ers are playing a game of Chicken right now, but that's my TFH stuff.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    they might push below ten cents. they didn't fund AXPW because they cared about it's actual business. TG will learn this if he hasn't already and if AXPW starts making cash payments and sales STILL don't materialize it could actually forestall any ramp up to those elusive sales.

     

    i just assume they want to make the most money. if they can sell their stock, they probably prefer taking on more shares, so we all need to watch volume not price, imo.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu,

     

    "TG will learn this if he hasn't already..."

     

    Over the last few years, I have come to the conclusion that there are a lot of things TG is utterly cluess, or naive about. Going to bed with Wall Street funding and expecting them to play nice is one such mistake among many...

     

    Maybe the future will prove me wrong, but so far I am not impressed at all with him, and sometimes I think Axion's story would have been different under other leadership, even though I think TG at heart is a hard working, decent man.

     

    Again this is just my feeling.
    9 Oct 2013, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu: So I understand you correctly: as long as the PIPE'ers can sell their shares into a "liquid enough" market, they prefer to do so (instead of taking a cash payment)... and we'll see them show their hand vis-a-vis *volume*... it that what you mean above?
    9 Oct 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    That is what I expect. Its the safer play for them, lets them catch upside if news breaks.

     

    I think too many here are forgeting all the negative macro stuff: government shut down, large number of retired incomming and increasing taxpayer liabilities.

     

    TG is keeping the business running and (I still believe) making the right choices. He wants to have cash ready for ramp Iinto sales AND still be around for those orders.

     

    Thats all I want from him. Somebody lost thier job over financing already, probably 'cause they actually put those 2 objectives at risk.

     

    Many cos would never have survived 2009 with no comercial product and potential customers like norfolk/bmw (methodical/plodding). I still like all our chances of making some MFing money, but sure wish I parked my AXPW cash elsewhere in hindsight. That said, I live in the present, and presently I don't see anywhere else I'd like to have that money.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    We know (and TG knows much more) about two major PbA manufactures that are interested to some level in producing PbC's in their facilities in order to satisfy the instruction of BMW to AXPW to find a reliable high volume mfgr since BMW (et.al.) cannot (and will not) depend on AXPW's capability in it's own facilities.

     

    One of the mfg'g candidates is "customer" driven; the other is "self" driven.

     

    I believe and I also hope, TG is working future funding deals with either or both of these two battery mfgr's which will have production skin and/or replacement product opportunity in the game. A structured funding opportunity as a bridge loan or whatever it may be called to be paid back in the form of a delicious starting royalty with a taper to an agreed-to max or cap repayment well worth the pain. No stockholder dilution (or whatever you want to call it), just a higher cost operation paying off some early "debt as royalties". A neat load. With folks that are going to believe in the product as a player (and hopefully not interested in killing the golden goose. Benevolent, for a price, however. Such a deal. Go TG.

     

    Give away some early margin as a temporary cost burden in order to assure there is one. A win-win (and win).

     

    Such news within a month or so would really make the PIPErs some real money. What a deal. One would think even the PIPErs would be encouraging the battery mfgrs to do such a deal - especially when it's someone else's money.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:02 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (735) | Send Message
     
    Why should these "two major PbA manufactures" care about Axion? They can license the product even if Axion closes as an independent manufacturer and sells their facilities. In fact, they may prefer that.

     

    "Expecting them to play nice is one such mistake" ... that many of us also do.
    9 Oct 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    There's a huge difference between licensing a patent and knowing how to use that patent. A couple years ago Sandia Laboratories tried to make its own version of the PbC for internal testing purposes and failed miserably. Without full access to a decade of know-how and experience, a patent license would be worthless.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Having played on both sides of this fence (albeit not in the battery business), I suspect that not only do the larger manufacturers believe that they can do as well as Axion, but that they can do better.

     

    As for know-how, a consultancy deal with one or more of Axion's past employees would solve most of that issue. Done all the time.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Naked: My comment might be splitting hairs, but that's what we do in the concentrator. I think only the "customer" driven battery companies was a setup by BMW.

     

    The "self" driven company probably has been following industry events in recent years and is probably dissatisfied with it's internal technology development to some degree. Putting my experience and education to work I'd suspect that company is a second tier player or a company with a weakening position in the market (yes sounds like Exide but I don't think TG would joke about it if Exide was the company) that is looking to shake things up in the industry.

     

    While I'm at it, Anth, while I agree that the PbC technology would survive the demise of Axion, the process of extracting that technology from a bankrupt company or a company that has been taken over by someone like Maxim's investors is a non-trivial thing.

     

    First of all, it would take a lot of time and it is not a certainty that there wouldn't be multiple players vying for the technology. Also, yes, you could probably find someone like Dr. Buiel to consult, in the end, the commercialization of the product would likely be set back by years and the risks for the acquirer would be very high.

     

    Yes, I have pointed out a vulnerability Axion has to the PIPE investors. It would seem in recent months that they have shown their hand sufficiently for us to come to the tentative conclusion that they aren't interested in taking over Axion and screwing around with the above. The market as a whole, particularly speculative technology stocks (every single such stock in the accounts I manage has been down both today and yesterday) have really been suffering the past couple of days.

     

    It will be interesting to see if the Maxim investors step in and defend the stock price as we progress through today. However, I think JP is correct that if the stock is broken for this cycle and Axion has to pay in cash that all may not be lost. I say this because if the elusive sale promised by TG happens the stock may recover before the next PIPE cycle.

     

    Interesting times....
    9 Oct 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    OK here's my speculation on the self driven battery maker.

     

    East Penn.
    Now we know East Penn is not an OEM for autos thus I will ignore automotive.
    However they are self driven they don't have a customer saying do it on this timeline.
    That means it is not an immediate need rather a plan for the future as PbC business grows they will be ready.
    We are expecting a PC sale(s) shortly. But will hopefully grow quickly over the next couple of years.
    ePower will be small for a year (10 for 2014 or so) grow during 2015 (50 or so although this could be 100, 50 long haul 50 day cabs) and grow a lot 2016 (500+)and beyond.
    NSC should be ramping up in this time.

     

    Not to mention cranes, hubs, and street lights etc.

     

    We happen to know East Pen is building a new AGM plant that is slated to be finished in 2015. (Late 2015 IIRC) Delays? say 2016.

     

    That has always seemed like coincidentally good timing to me, and was my immediate thought when I read of the "self driven battery maker".
    9 Oct 2013, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Froggey: That would make them another source, although not geographically separated, for PbCs for such as BMW *if* EP had an interest in those margins.

     

    It also positions them well if PbC gains traction with this solar or grid stuff. Physical proximity, a long-established good relationship, able to pick and choose what markets they want (no SEC/investors out in the wild hounding them), ...

     

    'Course, I don't believe a word of it - too much history to overcome on all our speculative stuff! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3300) | Send Message
     
    It's just possible that EP may also be eyeing PbC technology for much larger format batteries. Axion at this point clearly doesn't have the resources to contemplate that kind of development on their own right now. But EP? Surely. And IIUC recall they are currently making large format ultrabatteries, and importantly, selling them (I guess) into some market. And who knows, maybe that very same market at some point might develop an appetite for the true PbC. EP, better than anyone else right now, is probably becoming well and deeply acquainted with the UB, and all its strengths and weaknesses. They just may be finding that its inherent limitations will eventually lead to a dead end. And that PbC has vastly more potential, especially in larger formats for the stationary (or marine) markets. It's more rank speculation, but still EP could be laying such tracks even as we speak...
    9 Oct 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    gt - sometimes, at times, marriage is a better relationship than prostitution, even tho the marriage is more costly, requires more committment, while also imposing restrictions and expectations for longer than a one night stand or less. And of course, we must also beware of the rapists. It depends on what you want to get out of the deal, and what it will take, for a willing committment.

     

    Sometimes it is not just a matter of price, even tho it may just be business.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    HTL
    I don't think they are needing a third source yet.

     

    <Michael Smith - Private Investor
    Are you working with just one company or you’re looking at multiple lead-acid companies that you would be providing electrodes to?

     

    Thomas Granville - CEO
    We’re looking at more than one, but for the BMW project it's only one of their providers.>

     

    If BMW wanted another source they would have introduced Axion to another. With Axion's ability to be integrated into a regular LA battery factory they may be satisfied having seen it done once that replicating it when needed can wait.

     

    As you said for BMW EP is probably not a good fit.

     

    48 no time stamp, are you live? or still Memorex?

     

    Good points BTW. Large format would make sense.

     

    Well I feel better. No one had mentioned this idea and I was wondering if I was way off for some reason.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3300) | Send Message
     
    Still Memorex...

     

    As a gesture of peace and penitence I just thought I'd try leaving out the date-time-group to see what might happen... but, sigh, the gods, uh, seem not (as yet) to have been much moved...

     

    DTG 2215 PDT 09Oct2013
    10 Oct 2013, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    10/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up already).
    # Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol: 927512, AvTrSz: 8356
    Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1193, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1092
    # Buys, Shares: 24 171264, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1106
    # Sells, Shares: 85 746248, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1089
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1095
    Buy:Sell 1:4.36 (18.5% "buys"), DlyShts 64165 (6.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.60%

     

    The daily short sales continues as predicted, dropping further from yesterday's 11.94%. As has been common, pps also dropped again. If not for the “buying spree” triggered by the price in the mud, our buy:sell would have ended horridly too – through 14:26:56 buy:sell was 1:28.78 (3.4% "buys"). We were lucky to end up with a buy:sell where it ended and it ain't great either. 3.4% would've been my third lowest since tracking began in February 2012.

     

    Price spread was excessive today, ~19.3%. As usual we did OK until ARCA arrived at 10:44. The usual walk down began immediately and the price plunge kicked in at 14:45. A real “blood in the streets” event I think. Unfortunately, we can't gauge it in the usual fashion because the blood we saw might be predominantly PIPErs' shares rather than investors'. If so, the blood-letting may be just getting started as they may have millions of shares left to dump yet. They've shown no inclination to buy and/or support price in any way. Thus far my early scenario of unrelenting selling and price pressure seems to be holding sway.

     

    I hope TG is checking to see if these “financiers” are honoring the 15% of daily volume selling limit. If he's not checking, he's sorely remiss in the deal *again*.

     

    IIRC, regardless of what's shown in the calculated 20-day 85% prices, if today were the last day before share issue, the shares would be issued at 85% of today's VWAP, or $0.0928, 4.37% lower than yesterday's $0.0969. The progression around 1/2% a day stays on track here as well as in the 20-day out of 40 VWAP calculations.

     

    Among other things I said yesterday was “Based on the observed behavior to-date, we could anticipate prices in the market to be no better than somewhere in the $0.10xx range before the news moves price, if it does”. I really didn't expect it this soon.

     

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049
    10/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1224, x 85%: $0.1040

     

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66, 927.51.

     

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

     

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, and inflection points are omitted here.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    While I was initially hopeful that the FINRA short data would be useful in tracking the activity of the PIPErs, I've concluded that most of them (3/4 ?) have found away around the back room issues. It's a shame because I liked the opacity we had with the big uglies, but sometimes things don't go the way I'd like them to.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    JP: I agree. I think they are moving shares immediately to brokerage accounts that own the market-makers or, in the case of ARCA, have membership there. That eliminates one possible leg that would've yielded clues.

     

    The second elimination *may* be coming if a lot of the sales are to buyers in the same brokerage or exchange, in the case of ARCA e.g.

     

    I'm leaning more heavily ATM to making rough *guesses*, at best, based on the "weight" of hitting the bid. Can't get any quantity out of that - just "they're here today" or not. If it's constant and frequent with little or no display of patience I think "they're here".

     

    Can't even conclude that's very useful though. My best hope is that at least we may be able to tell when they're close to done if that observed behavior changes for more than just a day or two as we go forward.

     

    My TFH still keeps me wondering if they're on both sides of the trade. With multiple accounts at different brokers it would be hard to detect.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    It's very dangerous for a market participant to play both sides of the market when the real goal is to turn a lot of stock into cash. Since the PIPErs had top-quality legal representation when the deal was structured and documented, I'd be surprised to see them playing whip-saw games.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    As I am certain you have seen in the past, JP, people don't always listen to "top quality legal representation". I would not be surprised if you experienced this personally.

     

    It has become a crony world lately, however, and therefor information opacity of this type (particularly in this case) breeds speculation that a cabal is buying and selling to its special friends.

     

    With all the recent regulatory gyrations, perhaps some new gray areas have been created...
    9 Oct 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Selling to friends while putting pressure on the price is a great way to lose friends. I'd expect a lot more volatility in both directions if the PIPErs were playing whip-saw games.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1465) | Send Message
     
    I think the PIPErs may want to force a VWAP failure, as the short term incentive would be the 25% penalty. However, "whipsawing" the stock to eke out gains by buying and selling blocks inter-day or inter-week would be a waste of time for a PIPEr sitting on a large block of shares. If you have a million shares, trying to second guess the market to eke out 5% to 15% gains on blocks the size that are typically trading is just peanuts for a PIPEr. That is only if successful in second guessing the market.

     

    As I pointed out in a post a long time ago, there is a tradeoff for a PIPEr trying to depress the price. It's not a clear winning strategy in any case. The process of price depressing, while it yields more shares next installment, requires selling a lot of shares at depressed prices which is ultimately not good.

     

    Further, I think that any investor willing to lend money to a cash poor company, a company which has the option to repay the loan entirely in shares, has to have some comfort level with the business model. It doesn't make sense to lend money to a sinking ship with no cash as the best that can happen is you get your cash back plus interest, secured to a fire sale of assets that could stretch out a long time. Therefore, I don't buy the common belief that is being expressed that the PIPErs do not want any equity stake in Axion for the longer term. I think they will keep a substantial position, and they do have some zest for Axion's prospects. If not, they would have passed on this deal and loaned money to some other company. Cash poor companies with promising ideas are easy to find, so you fund the ones you think have the brightest prospects, in a convertible deal especially.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1408) | Send Message
     
    We don't know if they are keeping some shares do we?
    9 Oct 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3892) | Send Message
     
    RA > "If not, they would have passed on this deal and loaned money to some other company."

     

    May have been the case then. Is it NOW?
    9 Oct 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1465) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Yes absolutely! I think the PbC's prospects are much stronger now than last spring when the PIPErs were fashioning this deal. The only thing that's gone badly is the pps, and disappointing delays on sales. (No customers have actually bailed out, only delays.)

     

    Here's the good:

     

    *BMW hasn't dumped the PbC and remains in talks biweekly with Axion
    *NS is touting the PbC as a solution to a problem in its 10Q, and reiterates its commitment to electric power while continuing with and naming Axion
    *ePower is raving about the PbC as the *only* solution to a problem. Longevity under trucks' hard cycling so far appears to be good to perhaps excellent (my biggest worry).
    *We know now that PbC real world performance in deep cycling utterly crushes flooded and AGM in the shorter term. They are certainly not contenders for trucks, S/S, or locomotives. Per Ed Bueill, mere carbon additives and the Ultrabattery are not contenders. That leaves lithium which has some advantages but some clear disadvantages that despite a far more intensive R&D history it has failed to overcome. In hot/cold conditions, when max DCA is needed, in series strings, when cost is a factor but weight/volume not so much, PbC beats lithium.
    *Continuous roll automated carbon sheeting was a huge advancement
    *5-6 other automakers working with Axion, each of which probably represents a huge market
    *PC performance data looks excellent - a clear money saver for stationary power. PC RFPs are at much higher volume than even a year ago and we know PC sales are imminent. I expect a bandwagon effect in PC sales, ramping significantly within 1-2 years.
    *Axion is now developing mass market products to go straight to retail rather than OEMs that are so slow
    *Rosewater is back. If anyone knows about weighing the merits of alternatives in green energy storage, I would think Rosewater does because that is their business. I'd assume they are back for a good reason.
    *Attendees of the annual meeting seem to think there is some electricity in the air at Axion (they'd better frequency regulate it, haha)
    9 Oct 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4616) | Send Message
     
    http://on.mktw.net/1gq...

     

    EV sales to exceed 2 million / year by 2020
    9 Oct 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    i see no bid en no ask...
    9 Oct 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Quiet down here today. Looks like everyone is in "sit on the sidelines and watch" mode...:)
    9 Oct 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Amounta

     

    "Over the last few years, I have come to the conclusion that there are a lot of things TG is utterly clueless, or naive about. Going to bed with Wall Street funding and expecting them to play nice is one such mistake among many...

     

    Maybe the future will prove me wrong, but so far I am not impressed at all with him, and sometimes I think Axion's story would have been different under other leadership, even though I think TG at heart is a hard working, decent man."

     

    Add Trego and I believe you have hit the nail on the head

     

    Again why the qualifications of the new CFO will send the right signals - or not

     

    9 Oct 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    dlmca,

     

    Trego has been on board for 3 years, TG has been there since 2004!!!!

     

    While I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with regards to his "negotiations skills" gained through a lifetime of experience negotiating with (or is it on behalf? I cant remember) unions, nothing of what I have seen so far suggests he is a very apt negotiator :(
    9 Oct 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    >TB --- "Question becomes, when does TG go shopping for more money, and how much time will he have?"
    .........................

     

    I continue to be bewildered why TG wasn't on the trail for new money the moment after he signed the PIPE deal. It seems a couple of obvious red flags were literally screaming at him that this could end badly. 1) The requirement Axion seek approval to increase share authorization over 200M, and 2) the clause about the broken stock syndrome if the pps goes below .10.

     

    It appears he's content to allow the PIPE deal to play out on the PIPR's terms, and has no intention of doing anything to disrupt their playbook, which I find incredibly exasperating. ISTM he's sitting on his hands regarding the consequences of the PIPE deal, even though it likely leaves "potential customers" with just as much or more concern than before he made the deal.

     

    I have to agree with Amouna that TG appears to be clueless at times, and the playing out of the PIPE deal scenario strikes me as a prime example. He should have made finding new money/financing a TOP priority in early June when the PIPRs' intentions became abundantly clear.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Wayne,

     

    The worst thing is that prospective customers "know" they have Axion's management by the c**ones because they understand the implications of the PIPE deal on the company's finances, therefore any decision to delay orders and drag the process a little longer will send Axion into a desperation mode.

     

    What a sad and sorry state we have reached. On the bright side, if nothing materializes after Q3 then I am ready to permanently write off this management and get out of the investment
    9 Oct 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: Can't judge his skills by finding himself in a do-or-die get the money situation. Yes, he may have been an inadvertent partial cause of that situation if it resulted from prior negotiations failing as some large "strategic partner" decided they wanted most of the pie, but then the current financing would not qualify as a negotiation in any sense of the word.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I am very much aware that Axion has been in a "sign-the-dotted-line or die" situation for the past few quarters, stretching back to a few years even. However, if someone from the outside (non biased) looks at the corporate history of Axion, they can see a management team that is so proud of what it has developed, but yet still incapable of pointing out a path to any viable, sustainable commercialization.

     

    Whether past mistakes and opportunities not taken are a result of TG's ego and unwillingness to flinch and take bridging deals in the pursuit of a better tomorrow, no one knows (or will ever know) for sure, but right now the market is telling us that it believes the lights will go out before we even get the business started, and THAT is the real killer for me...
    9 Oct 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Amouna: The post I made addressed only negotiation skills you raised, "... nothing of what I have seen so far suggests he is a very apt negotiator" - nothing else. I can't argue with your other assertions - insufficient information and not my area of focus.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1408) | Send Message
     
    My guess is that TG had trusted Maxim to find a good deal for them and did little negotiation, all while believing the PIPE was only to be last resort. In that sense I don't blame him for concentrating on getting the strategic investor. They may have been able to push back on the PIPE if they had more time.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    >Amouna, I believe what the market is telling us is that fundamentals don't matter at this point. It's mostly about the PIPRs trying to maximize their profits, which has grossly distorted Axion's true value. The current market cap is around $15M, and should probably be 5-10 times that.

     

    The PIPRs aren't totally responsible for this; a big part of the responsibility lies with TG and Axion management. True, they've had some bad breaks over the years, but they've also made some bad decisions. One of the bad decisions (which I think they remain clueless about) is failing to respectfully communicate with their unusually loyal and valuable shareholder base.

     

    ISTM they've never understand or appreciated what a valuable asset they have (had) in this regard, and have often appeared to treat us with a great deal of ambivalence. --- Giving themselves bonuses at a time the company was so cash-strapped is a prime example.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Wayne,

     

    I agree with your points. I turned a blind eye on the "bonus" episode because I thought it was a reward for something truly awesome that was coming our way. I am still waiting for the news to come out :(

     

    My belief at this point is let's "pray" for the best to come out before Q3 cc, and if there is still nothing then accept my losses, lick my wounds and move on to greener pastures with the lessons learned from this debacle. The technology may be disruptive, but management is what makes or breaks a company.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >Ranma ... I agree that Maxim didn't get the attention by Mr. Granville that, as it turned out, he should. I've gotten the feeling that he spent a lot more time dealing with whoever the "strategic investor" was.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    If the PIPErs take the cash, instead of stock, how much cash is involved? Also, is it possible that this is a shake-out, knowing that there is news on the horizon? Too much GOOD news out there....car manufacturers dissatisfied with AGM for start stop, new inquiry from car mfg. about Axion, negotiating with other battery mfg for BMW, Cube sales, NSC is still out there (even if it hasn't moved). Valleywood, get off your tractor and spew some optimism!!
    9 Oct 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    Read JPs article on the subject. It and the comment section are probably sufficient to answer your questions.

     

    Shake out or not... who knows.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe the PIPErs are interested in driving the price down to a point where they end up with cash instead of stock. If they wanted that outcome, they could force the issue at any time by leaning just a little harder on the sell button. I can see them wanting to maximize their upside potential by keeping the price down until something good happens, but nobody thrives if Axion has to repay the debt in cash.

     

    In cases like this it's always fascinating to look at nature for behavioral hints. Viruses like Ebola that kill their victims are nowhere near as successful as viruses like the common cold.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2111) | Send Message
     
    The PIPEr's are probably more like tapeworms.

     

    Chronic parasites that leaves you belly-aching and hungry no matter how much you eat.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    The protective provisions in the notes (like the 15% cap on daily volume) could have something to do with the amount of time it has taken them to drive the strock down from $.26 to $.10. As HTL pointed out earlier, we can only hope that TG is monitoring this...

     

    Oddly enough, it could be argued just how "protective" some of the provisions really are, but its all signed and sealed and at least partially delivered by this point.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Since every sale on the OTC market has an offsetting purchase by an investor or a market maker and the four PIPErs are each entitled to account for 15% of daily volume, I think the limitation is illusory. If the PIPErs wanted to crush the stock into default territory, they could do so a in a heartbeat by leaning a little harder on the sell button. The fact that they haven't done so speaks volumes. The more likely scenario is that they're trying to shake out the weak hands before something good happens.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1465) | Send Message
     
    If the 4 PIPErs are cozy with each other and get together on the same day they could push down by 60% of volume in aggregate. If they are not in cahoots though it's difficult to push that hard at max 15% each.
    9 Oct 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2094) | Send Message
     
    Hi gang,
    Geez, the negativity here is deafening. It's obvious we all know the situation, more big uglies. But our negativity can be self defeating and prove to be self fulfilling unless we have an attitude adjustment. I know I am a small potatoes investor compared to many here, but there is blood in the streets all over the place right now, not just here.

     

    Most new tech and especially battery tech has been a tough sell for awhile. These things run in cycles, eventually the cycle swings up.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    "the negativity here is deafening."
    .........................

     

    That's why I've been tamping down some of my own negativity before posting (if you can believe that). lol I really do try to make valid points without it coming across as gratuitous, although I can see where it could come across as venting.

     

    To be clear, I believe Axion will emerge from this current quandary and prosper, and shareholders will also prosper as a result. I believe the current market cap should be 5-10x what it currently is, and that coming announcements will only add to that.

     

    As often as I've felt foolish for continuing to believe some of TG's predictions, I do think something will be announced soon. The only question for me is whether it will move the needle enough to ameliorate some of the PIPE consequences. I'm willing to wait at least until the next cc to see how this short-term situation plays out.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (694) | Send Message
     
    Most of the above is doom and gloom and I don't blame the posters.

     

    It is true that the PIPE is causing lots of angst.

     

    It may well be true that prospective customers think that they have the upper hand over AXION.

     

    However both auto and rail have environmental (CO2 reduction) deadlines looming and no viable alternative other than the PbC to help them meet those deadlines.

     

    It seems to me that TG took the only financing deal available.

     

    The PIPErs would have done their DD but at the end of the day they would not have been privy to any more information than we have. They are in it for the money, us too, but we have more of an emotional connection whereas theirs is more mechanical.

     

    TG knows 4 things for certain,
    1. the contract with East Penn is intact and that it will be an
    ongoing revenue stream,
    2. he has impending PC sales which he probably will announce
    in the next few weeks,
    3. ePower will buy enough PbC's for 10 Class 8 trucks soon,
    4. Rail and auto have no viable choice other than PbC.

     

    So all TG has to do is keep the lights on until a decent deal is struck and cash starts to flow. Its an uncomfortable position to be in but there is no reason to believe that AXION cannot hang on until that day.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Albert,

     

    Scenario number 2 unfolding with a serious order (not a 200k USD one like the others) will be all the market needs to completely reevaluate future prospects of Axion.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (694) | Send Message
     
    I suspect that the PC sales may well be in Puerto Rico. They will have the largest number of EV's of any Caribbean island. It may well be that there are government subsidies similar to what are available in the USA.

     

    I have been googling the other Caribbean islands but there is little that shows up in terms of significant EV sales and the need for multi-place solar carports/recharge centres, as mentioned during the AGM.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    AIB: They also have a very large debt load and may not be a good credit risk. I'd rather see some other locale be the early customers.

     

    http://usat.ly/GLEIRy

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (694) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    Yes the government has a $70Billion debt and may well be in serious trouble.

     

    But I do not expect that the PR Government would be the client.

     

    Next on my list are Barbados and Cayman who are pushing forward with EV's but they are apparently just getting started. Both have private enterprises involved in the solar carport idea but there are only a handful of EV 's on island at this time.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    Actually their financial mess would be perfect. Once the gov't gridlock is over would anyone be surprised to see an order in PR for "Green power" funded and paid for by the US Gov't. Its a partial backdoor bailout and any critism of the project will result in environmental groups defending the program.

     

    Sadly, this is how low I hold our gov't.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    You are reading my mind, mrholty...

     

    Unfortunately, the Feds have a real taste for lithium...

     

    Still, there might be opportunity there, if they leave the door open to token competition.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    TB: I think their taste for lithium is due to its use as a treatment for hyper-thyroid condition, ... IIRC.

     

    With what we see in the government, that affliction my be widespread.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Matters of the mind. Takes the random misplaced bounce out of ones step.

     

    http://bit.ly/19AsnFS
    9 Oct 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: sounds even more likely with the descriptions of its uses.

     

    Likely every condition mentioned is present up there inside that beltway.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I have a feeling they serve 7-UP original recipe at all congressional functions.

     

    I can't imagine how much longer this game is going to go on before the s&^t hits the fan. It's not gonna be pretty.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I would think that by now the weak hands would have had all the shaking a person could stand.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    So would I, but incessant talk of gloom and doom is always encouraging to those who want to shake a few more shares lose at panic prices.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... We do seem to spend an inordinate amount of time navel gazing. That is not to say I'm a happy camper because I have my own issues with Axion and a lack of ink on paper.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    What doom and gloom? I don't understand where this pessimism comes from. Why are investors panicking with 50% or even 90% losses? Penny stocks burn cash and their share price like a wick, but it's a wick tied to a huge bombshell. The precise location of the bombshell is unknown. Many products like new drugs are duds, but we already have plenty of good "clinical trial data" of our product, and it works.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    If you can't handle huge unrealized losses, don't invest in micro-cap companies. Duh!
    9 Oct 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (694) | Send Message
     
    Patrick

     

    I concur; I have been in the small cap arena for longer than I care to remember and have lost more than I have made in this sector over the years.

     

    Having said that I truly believe that AXION has THE product that will truly change OUR world for the better.

     

    My average purchase price is north of $0.30 but I am more bullish than I was a year ago and so continue to buy when cash comes available.

     

    PS Since I am not an American citizen and have no other American tax position I get no benefit if I sell at a loss.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (867) | Send Message
     
    I'm still buying, but it doesn't seem to be helping any.
    9 Oct 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Ok, i'll join the fight with some winnings from shorting Tesla (TSLA) over the last 48 hours.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    BTW, that was with Oct. 11, $150 puts I bought on Monday. Sold this morning for a nice 4X profit, and still holding some Oct 19, $95 puts, looking for a flash crash to the 200 day.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    Patrick:

     

    I closed my JAN 250 Short Calls on TSLA (for a nice profit) and Sold Short the Jan 230 Calls. IVs are through the roof and rightfully so...
    9 Oct 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    looking at TA signals, the RSI is 12 so way oversold. But we need sales to get new investors on board. I just emailed TG and urged him to put some confidence in the market. I will also try to get him on the phone....
    9 Oct 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Axion-nl: Ask if he's checking on the 15% limits of those PIPErs too!

     

    Breach of contract can be a powerful tool to have in hand.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (735) | Send Message
     
    With the previous conferences that have occured, you would think some news/announcement would have been published. Even if it is more of the same, it still reminds people that the product exists and that there is no bad news besides the PIPE.
    Lack of bad news can even be considered good news.
    No battery fires here.
    9 Oct 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Would you have any idea who these weak hands maybe, I agree that the PIPErs are not trying to crush it either. Why would they invest in something to crush it for pennies when they could see dollars coming.

     

    On the other hand it would make sense for them to milk the host for everything it can get until it's time to hatch.

     

    Seems like a simply case of parasite and host, they don't want to kill the host or else they die to. Thinking of that has just curled my toes as I'm remember the botfly larva on YouTube.

     

    How far off being a parasite are we for that matter.
    9 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Ryan: From my watching of the intra-day trading and the resulting metrics, which AFAIK nobody else is doing, if they are not trying to crush the stock they are *incredibly* clumsy.

     

    Hitting the bid the way they do with seeming total disregard for what is happening in the market and total disregard for price is *not* the hallmark of typical retail investors, over the longer term of viewing.

     

    Thsi behavior began around the time of the PIPE financing and has continued *nearly* unabated. To ignore the correlations would be inane. To assign cause and effect a little less so, but still risking some inanity.

     

    It's only my opinion, but I believe they are trying to crush it. I have no idea to what level - we may already be there - or to precisely what end, but until some shows me something besides hopium I'll rely on hard data.

     

    They are crushing it ATM by intent or not.

     

    MHO backed by numbers,
    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Er....it's not like AXPW was rising before the PIPE. I admit they aren't helping, but this whole thing (Axion's market story) is something to do with sexiness.

     

    From http://bit.ly/15oa6yn

     

    "This is the B-side of tech, the unSEXY underbelly that might not be the hot chic in the bar, but surely knows how to score. Like the true definition of ninjas, they quietly overturn entire business models and industries while building profitable, scalable ventures. And many in the tech community have no idea who they are."

     

    But these are the soon-to-be Billion $ companies...
    9 Oct 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1465) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I actually think it likely that the PIPErs do not even watch the stock intraday as we do. If a PIPEr is receiving a 2 million share installment in a given month, he may just instruct his broker to sell half of it, or 1 million shares, with a VWAP "limit" order. Then instead of a single 1,000,000 share limit order hitting the market, the broker splits the order into small blocks and sells them for weeks at whatever the market will bear, but while monitoring the VWAP received thus far. If market conditions change, the broker can contact the seller for permission to drop the VWAP limit further.

     

    In this method, the broker would recalculate continuously a new ask price and block size for these "mini" sell orders. The result of this would appear to be hitting the bids haphazardly trying to "crush" the price, but in fact it may be a more benign single sell order designed to mitigate risk by a strategically pre-planned 50% liquidation without much thought at all given to price crushing.

     

    Everybody on this board watches pps closely, so I think we are biased to assuming that other interested parties do too.
    9 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Ryan> Every population can be described by a bell-shaped curve that has weak hands at one of the tails. Even a few percent of 100 million shares can turn into significant selling pressure.

     

    HTL> In my experience, clumsy selling is far more likely to come from retail quarters than professional quarters. Professionals know they can't liquidate a position in a day and act accordingly. Retail investors have no such compunctions.

     

    There's little question in my mind that the PIPErs are trying to avoid a price failure, or they wouldn't have backed away this morning. They're also working hard to avoid a volume failure, which does set up a countervailing pressure.
    9 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: True, they were not rising. But the trading behavior has changed, even when compared to the financing last year. In that case I was able to call a "grind up" beginning in November and suggest it had topped in January. I wasn't able to predict how long and deep the down trend would go though. But the point is that I've been watching and trying to understand long enough that I can tell when something has changed.

     

    The trading patterns this time around are different from the last financing round and different from the patterns that followed when we strongly though those "big uglies" were out (also supported by data and some inference over it).

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    RA: "I actually think it likely that the PIPErs do not even watch the stock intraday as we do".

     

    Agreed 100%. They don't need to because the no-lose provisions in the contract make them impervious to losses. In fact they benefit, IMO, the lower the price goes regardless of accumulation or not ... as long as there are buyers at any price in the market.

     

    Since MMs control the limits of pricing in the market, there is no risk of losing.

     

    I personally have never believed, or stated, that I think they watch the market. I have considered that if they do want to accumulate and have some buyers available for the last tranche of shares they get, they may have some target price in mind below which they may not want to go.

     

    Being "big money", you *know* the MMs service them very well.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    John: " In my experience, clumsy selling is far more likely to come from retail quarters ".

     

    Agreed. That was really the point of my thinking since I don't believe the behavior of the long term I've viewed it is typical of retailers. Blips, yes. Over months? Unlikely. So I end up believing that the PIPErs are selling most of this.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    HTL> The market behavior is different this time because the financiers have a different objective. They want to take $1 million a month out of the market and don't much care how many shares that takes. Using my rough high, low, close and volume numbers, total value of all trades was as follows since May 31st.

     

    $2,474,429 – June
    $2,377,904 – July
    $3,012,724 – August
    $1,690,654 – September

     

    If we assume that half of monthly transaction value is sell side and half is buy side, it's pretty clear that the PIPErs account for the lion's share of sell-side trading activity, but not all of it. It's also clear that they came up a little short in September.

     

    As the number of dollars flowing into their coffers begins to slow, the PIPErs tend to drop the price in an effort to increase volume and get their $1 million a month. That being said, they know that killing the golden goose is a bad idea because legal proceedings cost tons of cash to pursue and take years to resolve. Anybody who thinks pushing a company into bankruptcy is a smart way for creditors to get their money has never seen the process up close and personal.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    I agree with JP on this one... I think with todays action (holding above .1030 or so) that the PIPE'ers are not interested in crushing this stock below .10 (at least no yet). Furthermore, this is indirect evidence that yesterdays actions was retail (even Axionista driven). Hell, the negativity (and gloom and doom) was so thick you needed a butchers knife to cut through it.

     

    Every day above .10 gives further evidence to the theory.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    John: Yes. But my thoughts were not concerned with why they were behaving differently - only that they were and that the difference was recognizable to me.

     

    The why they behave differently is of interest, of course, but wasn't my concern at the time I posted.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    O.R.; You could be right. But we have seen this same sort of "lumpiness" many times since the PIPE deal.

     

    Look at my charts and look at the averages for the buy sell since the PIPE deal began as one indicator. Look at the fact that in the last week or so we've had 3 new xxth lowest buy percentages in the time I've been tracking since 2/2012.

     

    Today's holding above $0.10 is not unexpected - we started the day at 10:09 with *presented* bids at $0.10 totaling 70K. And it's been up and down a bit from there. There were better bids above that consistently, again typical as ATDF and others jistle to be first on the bid (as well as the ask). On what appeared early on to be a low-volume day (we just broke $42K a few minutes ago) and ARCA not entering the fray on the offer until 12:16 (my first sighting of them at the top of the ask), the pressure today is a typical, IMO, relief from what was seen yesterday - just like after we first penetrated $0.13 and hit $0.12xx.

     

    Nothing unusual in today's action is my assessment.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    http://prn.to/16RU8Qg

     

    Johnson Controls sold 4.5 million AGM batteries in Europe last year.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    And none of them will give the buyers the service life and performance they expect.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Methinks that with AGM batteries failing after 3-4 months and auto insiders knowing full well the results of PbC with BMW, may go-ahead and make a large order for next-year's models. Possibly what TG has been hinting at?

     

    That would certainly be far and away above anyone's expectations right now.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    PY - this will not happen until the ink is dry on the paperwork between Axion and the one or two or more major PbA mfgrs; and then the question is not whether the order goes to Axion or not: it will go to the guys that can fill the order and that leaves out Axion as a direct hit. However, the indirect hit will be a nice hit. In the meantime Axion continues to make a variety of things in it's own facilities for a variety of applications, including as many negative PbC plates as possible.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Granville was pretty clear that his scenario will start with Axion making batteries for the end user as its partners learn how, then both companies making batteries as volumes ramp and ultimately something happening that would allow a partner to make components. At this point in time the only "guys that can fill the order" are Axion. As a partner moves up the learning curve that will change but it's not going to leave Axion with an empty factory while a partner has a full one.
    10 Oct 2013, 04:23 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    JP sorry to add to your new work load but I will ask any way. You mostly deferred from making your own observations from the AGM.
    I understand you sent some notes to AMP. I think everyone as had their say

     

    If you have any more observations on the meeting I (and I'm betting others) would be happy to hear them.
    10 Oct 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    I was very impressed with everything I saw at the meeting. I've made a couple of observations about things that other attendees missed, like the pallets full of carbon electrode sheets awaiting fabrication into electrode assemblies and the fact that they were making AGM specialty batteries on one of the flooded lines, but I don't think the others missed much.

     

    The thing that impressed me the most was the esprit de corps. From the executive suite to the line workers the attitude was clear, "we've created something extraordinary and sooner or later those who haven't taken the time to visit will begin to understand."

     

    It's like I told an old friend this morning, we may have started without a clear idea of where the PbC would be most useful, but the last decade has been absolutely amazing as new applications developed that play to the PbC's strengths.
    10 Oct 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    My happy thought of the day: The PIPE'ers and MM's were "leaked" sales information by insiders of incredible sales on the immediate horizon and are in a last ditch effort to shake out every share they can muster from the Axionistas, before the incredible run....

     

    ok.... too much hopium.

     

    FWIW, I bought today.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Huh? explain the hypothetical scenario again please. Being a "conspiracy theorist" myself (e.g. I believe "the man" is talking to "the little green men"), I am very intrigued.
    9 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    O.R: What's the going rate for hopium today - street price of course! ;-))

     

    In full disclosure, I had the urge, but restrained myself, wisely or not.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    From Daniel Kahneman in http://onforb.es/1gr00RM:
    "Individual investors feel losses very keenly, and they should be aware of that. And what happens is if you’re not aware of that, when things go bad, you’ll want to change what you’re doing, and that’s the disaster in investing, I think. That’s here, it’s quite obvious that loss illusion can kill you."
    "The worst thing that can happen to you, of course, is to bail out, to make a decision and then not stick with it, so that you bail out when things go badly, so that you sell low and you buy high. That is not recipe for doing very well in the stock market, or anywhere."
    9 Oct 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    HTL "In full disclosure, I had the urge, but restrained myself, wisely or not."

     

    me too,lol
    11 Oct 2013, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1422) | Send Message
     
    I love the hope...er...hopium
    9 Oct 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    @Patrick... I could've written that better... mainly I'm joking that the PIPE'ers and MM know what the announcement will be (from TG)and are trying to shake every last share before the "explosion" to the upside.

     

    I believe, iindelco maybe?, referred to this as the Charlie Brown great Pumpkin scenario....
    9 Oct 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    OR, Someone else mentioned the Great Pumpkin.

     

    "I got a rock!" was my recent attempt to deliver a smile in return for the Christmas Story kid in a bunny suit. His little brother laughing when he comes down in the suit is priceless.

     

    Now, back to catching darts close to vital body parts. Hooray, that felt bad, but they missed another vital area. I win!
    9 Oct 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they do. With the right resources and will, it wouldn't be so hard, legitimately or not, to learn of or hear about some carbon battery that was ordered by ____.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Then again, maybe the PIPE'rs are just as savvy as us, albeit with handicapped rules in the market. Ultimately, I have to believe they don't want an insolvent company.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Hey, the Great Punkin' is a LOT better fantasy demigod than the fat guy in the red underwear...
    9 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Fun new conspiracy theory of the day. At least a couple of the PIPErs are based in the Caymans, sunny islands that imported 1.3 million barrels of oil last year and generated 590 million kWh of electricity from oil fired power plants. Yikes.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/160Y5fv
    9 Oct 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile, in other news, the automobile manufacturer that Muskn't be named can't seem to get back above 170.

     

    By the way, I received a message from my broker that Margin requirements were being RAISED on this unnamed auto company.

     

    Did anyone else get the same bulletin? I use IB

     

    @ HTL: Hopium is still free (on the street) until a price fail!
    9 Oct 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    OR: I had been calling for a price reversal at $190 in my stocktalk. My basic theory is that once the trend is broken, it will cave in because people are buying it on a whim because it's "always going up". like the housing market, the first sign of losses and party's over.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    @ Patrick: I tend to agree, but with one very big caveat... Musk is a puppeteer and he knows how to use non-GAAP to his advantage. With the record sales in Norway there may be one last (non-GAAP) hoorah (squeeze) when the earnings are released next month.

     

    My take is that once November earnings are released, the stock will work its way back below 100 (with bounces, of course) in the first half of '14... then back around 50 towards the end of next year. Just my take.

     

    Try saying that on a Tesla article and be prepared to get death threats!
    9 Oct 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    You're close enough right here, OR, don't be surprised...

     

    LOL, I remember the pm's I got on here when I mentioned that Axion might opt for a convertible note funding round...

     

    Yipe.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    The beer glasses are wearing off, and those earnings projections are looking a little under 17. You'll be old enough to have a drink in 2020?!? OMG.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: "Hopium is still free (on the street) until a price fail!".

     

    LoL!. Yep. Payment comes on the back-end.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Oct 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Yep. In every sense of the phrase, HTL.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3300) | Send Message
     
    My sense is that we have no idea what TG is or is not doing right now. He could very well be pursuing fresh money even as we speak. Or he could be working on a PC deal. Or in talks with a battery mfg, or, or... we just don't know. It just seems to me, he's got a pretty full plate and several fish to fry as it is. And I hope he can get some peace and stick to his knitting these next few weeks. 'tis the season. He did place a marker down for 15 Nov, so he'll have to surface at least by then...

     

    But yeah, the pipe deal blows.
    9 Oct 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    No badges sold so I guess no verification it's been seen. Maybe I need to go to the "ghost of NS 999" badge site to see some active sales.

     

    You saw Norfolk Southern 999

     

    http://bit.ly/1c0Yjru

     

    Word it that the "We beat NSC to the track!" hybrid locomotive team buttons are selling well in TX.
    9 Oct 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Tells us plenty when TG/former CFO/etc. prepared to get in bed with PIPERS living in the Cayman's

     

    Hope they see the wisdom of the cube - but then these bas.....ds tend to be content with lining their pockets rather than doing anything for the common good

     

    Our only real hope in the absence of an announcement of substance is they will join in pursuing the wisdom of a higher AXPW stock price

     

    My only real concern is the stock price will appreciate when management have left the Axionistas to die in the desert of financial manipulation accepted in ignorance bliss by TG and team

     

    We need to think of how we fight such possible/eventualities - the Courts being one obvious but lousy avenue - lousy for all

     

    Lets make this work AXPW team

     

    9 Oct 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    There has been word of at least one PIPEr behaving differently from the pack...

     

    The Caymans as the location behind Door #3? Could be.
    9 Oct 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    Ethical Caymans Financial Institute - don't think that combination of words has ever been used before.
    10 Oct 2013, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Business in the Caymans is extremely ethical, or at least it was when they respected privacy.
    10 Oct 2013, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    Did Axion have a solar panel shown for their street light application? Here is a Stella Group brochure which has one shown. Wondering since they have done business together.

     

    Municipalities: Clean Solutions to your Present Day Infrastructure Problems!

     

    http://bit.ly/1c14taX
    9 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Dirtdauber
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    iindelco,
    Yes, the package includes a solar panel. It is installed and operational in the parking lot at the Green Ridge facility. It does not look like the Stella offering.
    10 Oct 2013, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    Dirtdauber, Thank you for the feedback. It was a long shot but I thought perhaps they might be supportive of the unit supplied by The Stella Group given their relationship.
    10 Oct 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    The latest short interest report shows the total at 779,115 shares on 9/30, down about 50,000 (6.9%) from 837,170 shares on 9/13.
    9 Oct 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    This afternoon I agreed to take a job as ePower's executive vice president and chief financial officer. My principal focus will be managing the finance, government and industry relationships that will drive ePower’s growth.

     

    It's going to be a huge challenge keeping ePower financed and on track, but there aren't many companies that have the potential to slash fuel consumption in the trucking sector by 30 billion gallons a year. It's a legacy worth working for.

     

    There will be a press release tomorrow morning and a follow up article in Batteries International next week.
    9 Oct 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Congratulations!!! That sounds like fun work.
    9 Oct 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    John, Congratulations on your latest challenge. It's nice to see your efforts pay off.

     

    Will you be moving in the near future or staying where you are at for now?
    9 Oct 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2111) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, JP!

     

    Terrific match for you!

     

    I hope you won't be too busy to drop by here and tell us about it often. It keeps the good cheer here going when we hear about ePower's successes.
    9 Oct 2013, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2329) | Send Message
     
    Congrats JP, I'm glad you're getting another swing at the ball. This time you guy's will knock the cover off it. I'm hoping to see you guys as a public company by decade's end.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco> Since my main activities in the early days will fall into the road warrior class, I'll probably stay put for a few months and move to Kentucky after I get ePower on a stronger financial footing.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    Bazoooka> There are very few times in life when working your ass off to make one company a success can pull another along for the ride. Unlike Axion's other customers, "we don't need no stinking NDAs" and will undoubtedly seem downright chatty in comparison.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • 12100606
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    That´s wonderful, JP. Congratulations!
    9 Oct 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Well deserved sir. Here, here!

     

    ePower's future just got a bit brighter.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    "Since my main activities in the early days will fall into the road warrior class, I'll probably stay put for a few months and move to Kentucky after I get ePower on a stronger financial footing."

     

    John,
    Congratulations. Have you told the wife yet that you are moving to Kentucky? As I remember, you moved to FL for her job. Is she moving with you or are you going to be shuttling back and forth?
    9 Oct 2013, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1422) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations. I wish for great success for you; you deserve it.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John. Sounds like a win, win, win, for ePower, for you, and for us Axionistas. --- RE: "There will be a press release tomorrow morning and a follow up article in Batteries International next week." --- I trust you'll somehow manage to get a plug in for Axion... : )
    9 Oct 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Good luck John
    We're all pulling for you, and you know where you can kind some experienced test drivers if you need them.
    (Unfortunately not me) :-(
    We'll be waiting for every report you can give us.
    Have fun building your legacy!
    9 Oct 2013, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3892) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to both you and ePower principals.
    9 Oct 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Congrats. Maintaining a secure source of PbC will be an important objective for ePower at this juncture. And please take it easy on that guy from the elevator industry when it comes to pricing negotiations.
    10 Oct 2013, 03:10 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, John! May the force be with you, ePower and Axion!
    10 Oct 2013, 03:11 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations JP! Good job! I hope you make the company a great success :)))
    10 Oct 2013, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Congrats on the new position. It should be very challenging and rewarding.
    10 Oct 2013, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    It's one of those challenges first, rewards later, things; but it should be a whole lot of fun.
    10 Oct 2013, 05:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I add my congratulations and best wishes to those already expressed.

     

    There can be little more exciting or gratifying, as you already know, than helping a nascent and important effort come to fruition. For folks that want to "make a contribution" it's a dream scenario.

     

    I'm glad that you'll still be able to participate here off and on - you've been a veritable fount of good information over the years, without which I'm sure many of us would be (even more) ignorant in the extreme about the potential of the PbC and the company's history.

     

    I see one of the folks asked about crowd funding. Regardless of that, ISTM that a good resource for many, and possibly a benefit to ePower, would be an ePower concentrator, a la the APC. Possibly hosted on ePowers site somewhere down the line. Potential (future) investors, potential customers, ... would likely benefit greatly from such a resource. Occasional interaction there by some ePower folks would be a big benefit too.

     

    For now, it could be on SA facilities. Although it's not yet investable I don't see any prohibitions on that from SA. It might fit in as a part of your overall strategy in achieving ePower's goals too.

     

    If you would consider it, I think a lot of folks, including myself, would be following and participating when appropriate and possible. Hm, that might be the downside though - you know what worry-warts we can be! ;-))

     

    Don't forget to mention UQM motors to Jay. BTW, UQM makes motors and related, not cars. Anyway, they have two products designed for trucking. May not be large enough for the app though - that's something I guess Jay would check. Might be too expensive since they are RE motors, but they are more efficient. UQM is working on a non-RE motor as well.

     

    Longer-term, since PCAR (KW and Peterbuilt) and others are testing CPST-powered units, might just want to keep an eye on that space too. The steady-state running of engine at max efficiency is right in CPST's sweet spot and the addressable market for ePower might start to slowly evolve in various ways.

     

    Again, congrats and I'm thrilled for you being able to pursue a "dream scenario" such as this one.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    I've reached out to SA for clarification on what I can and cannot do or say given my new responsibilities. I want to make sure my disclosures are proper and my behavior doesn't get me cross-wise with the editorial staff.
    10 Oct 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Carnardie
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Musk tweets and you blog - it's a new world of corporate communications.

     

    But all the execs I've worked with have set their company policies on what is and isn't appropriate regardless of what any blogging website says is or isn't appropriate. That's a new twist.

     

    But, ePower almost certainly knows what they'll get from you, and has apparently signed up for that.
    10 Oct 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • PMP40
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Congrats John
    10 Oct 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations, John.
    You deserved it.
    Do let us know when ePower is investible.
    10 Oct 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    my heartiest congrats, John!
    10 Oct 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, JP. Looking forward to another SA blog perhaps? FWIW, I cleaned out all the change from under the sofa cushions and bought a few more shares.
    10 Oct 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    My next blog will be on Tuesday when I analyze the sophistry of expecting double credit for EVs and solar panels. The piece has already been written for Batteries International and my deal with the editor is that they publish first.
    10 Oct 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    Looking forward to the new article John. I am still thankful i stumbled across your articles a year and a half ago.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • KentG
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John! Good Luck
    9 Oct 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Mr. John Congratulations.

     

    Excellent news for you, but very bad for us (APC).

     

    Good Luck-Carlos
    9 Oct 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    I'm not going away Carlos. I'm just putting on a new hat. I'm still an interested Axion stockholder and I have way too many friends around here to ignore. I may take the rhetoric down a notch, but you're not getting rid of me that easy.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Gracias!!

     

    Thank you for your clarification.-Good night

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    9 Oct 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1227) | Send Message
     
    JP, excellent! Very happy for you and for ePower. I am strongly pulling for your success in taking a major bite out of OTR truck emissions!
    9 Oct 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    I'd rather take a major bite out of fuel consumption and save a ton of money for truckers that spend 35% of their direct costs on fuel. If I can accomplish that goal the emissions reductions will follow as a matter of course.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Sir John - there is nothing like continuing to teach folks the difference between Dependent and Independent variables.

     

    Keep on keeping the main thing the main thing.

     

    J.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5808) | Send Message
     
    I can't think of a more qualified person to fill that kind of multi-hatted entrepreneurial position. You have a knack for being in the right place at the right time with the right skill set. Well done sir!
    10 Oct 2013, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (215) | Send Message
     
    >John Petersen,

     

    Congratulations on your latest success, I believe this will be a great and mutually beneficial relationship. ePower made a wise choice and I hope they can keep up with you!

     

    The icing of this deal is that your efforts there will benefit AXION and thus me, so Best of Luck to You!!!
    9 Oct 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    I always admired enlightened self interest.
    9 Oct 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • alpha5one
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    Yo John, Congratulations on your new job. Trust it will go well. It was interesting reading about the super high diesel prices in Europe. Couple that with the environmental sensitivities and I would think demand for ePower trucks would be very strong there. Glad to hear you will still be sharing your insight and comments from time to time.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    great news John

     

    Its very clear epower knows what they are doing with the product and the people they surround themselves with.

     

    Wish we had you as our executive, no need to say good luck as we all know luck prefers the prepared and that is something i have no doubt you are.
    9 Oct 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2488) | Send Message
     
    Congrats John! Very happy to hear the good news. May you have good fortune and few unforeseen delays.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:35 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John! We all wish you the very best.
    9 Oct 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    This is interesting. I wonder if Axion is aware? They should be since they are part of the ALABC.

     

    "This project is researching the development and demonstrate of supporting technology and hardware for the rapid recharging and battery management of lead-acid battery systems. Rapid recharging of lead acid batteries increase the range available and extend the useful cycle life of lead-acid batteries "

     

    http://bit.ly/1cxDJSp
    9 Oct 2013, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    That's great news, John!

     

    I just have to ask. Is equity crowd-funding a viable option for ePower given the SEC's change on Rule 506?
    9 Oct 2013, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    The battery that "doesn't work" is on the top 100 list and Axion is on the S^% list. Go figure. I guess it takes money to make money. Oh, And government connections.

     

    Ecoult Makes the Global Cleantech Top 100 List

     

    http://yhoo.it/1hDzWRo
    9 Oct 2013, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (950) | Send Message
     
    Was Axion a nominee?
    10 Oct 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, That I do not know.
    10 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I think a key part of that award (emphasis mine) was "... world's top 100 PRIVATE companies..."

     

    Since Axion is public it's in a different category?

     

    Also, later on "The Global Cleantech 100 list is unique because it highlights the promise of PRIVATE clean technology companies ..."

     

    Hope that helps you sleep better! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Very important point. ZZzzzzZZzzzzzZzz! :-)
    10 Oct 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (839) | Send Message
     
    Damn-

     

    My work is now one of the most ethical places to work for. Being skeptical I looked into it and realized that all you have to do is pay a fee to be a "client" of this company and then fill out a self survey and have a survey done by some of your clients and vendors that you self-select.

     

    Its a real cheap way to build publicity that HR can use. I've thought long and hard of creating a CFA type award for Finance professionals with something like a 75% win rate if you pay your dues of $500/year by mid-year and 95% if you pay by March 1. I'm not a cynic.
    10 Oct 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2094) | Send Message
     
    Hi JP,
    Great news, I'm happy for you. It sounds like a challenge you are well suited for.
    10 Oct 2013, 02:11 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Let me add one more comment wishing you well. Ever since I first heard about ePower I've been more excited about that sector than any other that Axion is involved with. Now I'm even more so. I may even have to buy more shares today!
    10 Oct 2013, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • Fritz1969
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations John!
    I think, in the next 6-12 months the most challenging part of your new job will be to convince new ePower investors that Axion will last until both companies start to earn real money.
    10 Oct 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    ePower already knows what the PbC does for its application and while some Axion stockholders seem to enjoy fretting over survival issues, ePower is far more concerned with locking in a priority position for its future needs. We were at Axion's annual meeting and saw a company that knows it has developed something very special and is facing "first and goal from the two yard line."
    10 Oct 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    JP: LoL. The "Red Zone" can be the toughest place to score from. The defense is stacked and your maneuvering room is reduced.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    The red zone can be tough, but not with heavy weights like NSC and BMW playing guard and ePower angling for the tight end position.
    10 Oct 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Congratulations

     

    AXPW needs to get on a winning roll

     

    I feel we may look back on this announcement as a turning point in AXPW fortunes.

     

    When some thing like the PbC starts to get traction - the long road of bad fortune turns to a long road of good fortune

     

    Wishing good fortune to JP and all
    10 Oct 2013, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    A dip below 10cents for a few days so we can load up on more shares at bargain basement prices...
    10 Oct 2013, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29479) | Send Message
     
    That might be fun for bargain hunters, but it would not be good for Axion.
    10 Oct 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I agree. Axion needs to avoid the penalty phase if it can. $.10xx shares are already either great bargains, or not. A few more tenths is meaningless at this point.
    10 Oct 2013, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • nummik
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Tripleblack- meaningless...
    not for the people that think of percentage instead of cent...
    10 Oct 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    when TB is saying the price is low enough, u, maybe it is actual bottom. lol
    11 Oct 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8796) | Send Message
     
    They're Baa-ack. And they are coming after the market that makes sense. They will probably get the 3rd development contract from USCAR in the space.

     

    " A123’s transportation business continues to serve customers including BAE Systems, BMW, Daimler, GM and SAIC, among others. The production facilities in Michigan continue to produce the majority of A123’s transportation output and successfully launched the Chevy Spark EV battery system for General Motors earlier this year. (Earlier post.) However, going forward, the transportation unit will be increasingly focused on low-voltage (12- and 48-volt) hybrids to capitalize on the performance advantages of its Nanophosphate EXT chemistry and systems competence in micro-hybrids. (Earlier post.) "

     

    http://bit.ly/15qfz7Q
    10 Oct 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17279) | Send Message
     
    Well, those Chinese folks are certainly competent - in lots of different ways. I expect they'll have great success.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message