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  • Axion Power Concentrator 274: Oct. 11 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower, APMarshall AGM Notes; 10Q Filing For Q2 274 comments
    Oct 11, 2013 7:07 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    Update Report On Hybrid Norfolk Southern Switcher Locomotive To Be Presented At 7th Annual ASME Rail Conference

    ePower Hires Executive Vice President

    Notes on the 9/26/13 AGM with thanks to APMarshall62

    The following is primarily a compilation of my copious notes from the 9/26/13 meeting with a lesser amount of my own analysis added (it should be clear which is which). I made little effort to edit it down as one would when writing an article since I expect you all want as much raw information as possible.

    It is mostly chronological but there are places where I pulled together information on the same point from various events. I believe I've made that clear but have probably missed some instances. Also, I discuss some points in depth in paragraph format. For specific notes that I don't discuss in depth I use bullet points to separate them from the text and hopefully make this easier to read.

    The main events for which I compiled notes include a Wednesday night dinner with John Petersen and several folks from ePower (also three of us Axionistas), the formal part of the annual meeting, the presentations (Vani Dantam and Mike Romeo) and subsequent Q&A that included Tom Granville, the two plant tours (battery facility and electrode facility), the ePower demo, and finally, the closing cocktail party.

    ePower Dinner:
    Jay Bowman, ePower's founder, struck me as a classic entrepreneur: He wouldn't fit in the corporate world but is smart, creative, and driven. He didn't share a lot of new info, but I thought it was very interesting how he described his system's interaction with the battery.

    Essentially, he said that a graph of the battery usage would show second by second changes even at steady speed on level terrain. That was music to my ears because the more charge/discharge events the better the fit for the PbC.

    Note: The next day Tom Granville mentioned that ePower had reported dramatic improvement in the performance of the automated carbon sheeting based batteries (the improvement was so dramatic because of the very specific nature of the ePower application with the very rapid give/take of power). I didn't fully understand the limited explanation he gave - it was something I hadn't heard previously. Bottom line of this side point was that the ePower application seems like an absolutely perfect fit for the PbC battery. In fact, much better than even the locomotive application, which doesn't have the extremely rapid fluctuations in giving and receiving power.

    Jay also mentioned that the ability of the PbC to receive charge was the key differentiator vs. Lithium ion.

    • AGM batteries needed to be plugged in for over ten hours after only a few hours of driving. However, even with this accommodation, they only lasted 4,000 - 5,000 miles before degrading.
    • The PbC state of charge can fluctuate 15-20% say during a sustained climb. I was glad to see the relatively deep maximum discharge vs. the 1-2% we'd see in an auto stop-start application.
    • Jay Bowman said that truckers hate batteries and he didn't think truckers would do the 36 hour trickle charge once every 6-12 months to top off the batteries. However, he said Axion keeps upping the life expectancy of the battery in this application and believes it will last for the entire four year rebuild cycle without the benefit of the trickle top-off.

    Jay spoke at length about the new 6.7 liter engine (the first conversion is in process). In steady state, the generator needs to produce 72 - 74 Kw of energy to cruise at low highway speed (55mph I assume) on a level road. The 4 liter engine produces about 93Kw after discounting the parasitic loads.

    The Cummins 6.7 liter engine (used in pickup trucks) produces 240hp or approximately 128Kw after discounting parasitic loads. It burns 6.8 gallons per hour when powering a 120Kw generator. So, if the truck is driven at 68mph it should average nearly 10 miles per gallon. The dramatic increase in available energy indicated by these calculations is the reason Jay is very confident that the 6.7 liter engine will not be underpowered.

    Yesterday, John Petersen e-mailed me some additional information along these lines. I was particularly concerned about the truck still being underpowered since the system will still use the same 115Kw generator (can be over-rated to 128Kw for 15 minutes per hour) and the same 150hp motor (can be over-rated to 380hp for up to 15 minutes per hour). While the horsepower rating is a little less than a conventional rig, the torque from the electric motor more than offsets that concern at low speeds and largely offsets it at higher speeds. He did say that fitting in a larger electric motor would be difficult given space constraints in the tractor frame.

    Note: See Vani Dantam's discussion of hybrid and EV trucks for more info on the above topics.

    We discussed ePower's plan to build ten demonstration tractors. They would be delivered to key trucking companies to use as they wish, for free, for a limited period (a few weeks or months) before they would be asked to lease or purchase the tractor. While Jay was very clear that he didn't know how long the companies would want to test the rig before placing purchase orders, he believed that the test period could be short if the rigs perform as advertised.

    Jay Bowman says he's spoken with a number of trucking executives who have basically said to him "Go away. You know what I want. When you have it come back with something I can drive. If it works, I'll buy it"

    It is important to note that even the four cylinder ePower rig has well under 10,000 miles on it so the ten demonstration rigs will be very important for getting a substantial body of performance data.

    A development that I found to be extremely interesting is that ePower has had an extended conversation with a Turkey-based trucking company about that company shipping a tractor to ePower to rebuild and ship back. This is particularly exciting because diesel fuel is extremely expensive in the EU (nearly $10/gallon) or roughly $2 per mile driven. The calculated payback with such very high fuel prices is under one year.

    One factor that I think isn't being talked about sufficiently is that ePower will need to raise a seven figure sum to implement the plan to build ten demonstration units. JP is working on that issue and discussions with potential funding sources have begun. While the 3rd generation unit will soon be ready, I am concerned that the financing will have to wait for what likely will be several months for testing to be completed. John considers financing events to always be a challenge, but he is confident they will get it done with minimal impact to the timeline. However, I suspect I'm not the only Axionista who is skeptical of such assertions.

    I think the three of us Axionistas at that dinner left with a very high regard for the ePower opportunity. Still, I don't see any follow-up orders beyond the ten rigs until summer 2014 at the earliest.

    Axion Annual Meeting
    At the formal meeting it was reported that 77% of shares were voted with all resolutions passing with 80%+ of votes except the three year issue passed with 75%+. (see the 8K statement that came out Tuesday for the details).

    Bob Averill not present. Family wanted him off the board 3 years ago for what sounded like health reasons.

    Leading CFO candidate at the meeting and Tom Granville introduced him along with the other company employees.

    TG repeated and affirmed his statement that there would be large/significant orders by the next call.

    I think attendance was lower this year than last. The number of Axionistas was similar but my impression was that the number of institutional investors was much less (no questions from institutional investors if I properly recall).

    Presentations
    After the formal meeting, Vani Dantam gave a presentation. Much of his presentation involved bashing Lithium Ion but he also covered a lot of the markets the company is involved with (a broader spectrum of targets than in the past). He was followed by Mike Romeo Senior scientist who gave an introductory presentation on the PbC technology (note: Enders Dickenson left the company a few months ago for family reasons). After the presentations, the two presenters and Tom Granville took questions.

    Vani Dantam presentation:
    In a string, the voltage of PbC batteries is uniform to 1/100th of a volt.

    Lithium Ion bashing:

    • Each cell encased in three steel cases.
    • BMS and thermal factors add 15-40% to cost (I believe this is above cell costs)
    • Operating cost and maintenance add 10-20%
    • LI provides limited power above 40 degrees C (50%) and 0% above 45 degrees. It also provides little power below -10 degrees C.
    • Thermal characteristics (Heat generation) means that a given application requires twice as many (KW) LI batteries as PbC.
    • Mentioned the Dreamliner was originally launched without a BMS for the LI batteries. A BMS has subsequently been added. REMARKABLE
    • PbC has 2-4x faster recharge speed vs. LI in partial state of charge.

    Stop start:
    Ford Focus is a $210 option while Chevy Malibu is a $2,200 option. Point was that the automakers haven't really got their arms around the stop-start issue.

    BMW and 5-6 other automakers are working with Axion. 3 of them have told Axion that they aren't happy with AGM. AGM stops working after 3-4 months.

    A European automaker that has been buying Johnson Controls AGM batteries just contacted Axion. They have not been satisfied with the Johnson Controls product.

    Hybrid and EV Trucks
    In current hybrid trucks, all LI batteries do well in the first 1-2 hours until the batteries overheat and shut down. All other hybrid truck manufacturers are working with standard 12-18 liter truck engines rather than using smaller engines (4 liter going to 6.7 liter) running at constant speed as has ePower. Therefore, they will be limited to only incremental fuel economy gains.

    If my recall is accurate Eaton's hybrid truck has sold something like 6000 units and is priced much higher than conventional trucks.

    The ePower hybrid truck has been driven nearly 10,000 miles so far.

    Current truck fleets get on average 5.4 miles per gallon. New trucks average 5.9 mpg.

    The DOE target is 7.3 mpg. ePower is at 8.1 mpg and expects to get to 9.8mpg.

    The fuel economy of a truck can vary widely depending on the experience and incentives of the driver. Trucking company C.R. England has driver incentives and its drivers average 7mpg.

    Part of the improvement is driving more slowly and part is experience with shifting gears.

    Note that the ePower tractor's electric motor uses an automatic transmission and electronic cruise control. This greatly simplifies driving and training requirements for drivers.

    To save space, the fuel tank in the ePower truck is half the size of a standard truck.

    The ePower truck accelerates much better than standard trucks and especially better than the Eaton Hybrid. ePower 0-60 mph with an empty 53 foot trailer is 45 seconds vs. 80 for standard and something like 110 for the Eaton hybrid.

    Axion is also talking to several crane companies. The idea is that like ePower, the PbC will enable them to build their cranes with smaller diesel generators.

    Residential and Community
    Batteries are used to "clean" power.

    California and New Jersey permitting processes now require the use of batteries with solar power systems.

    Axion has created a product that provide 3KWH (4 KW) of storage as well as a 10KWH product.

    Axion storage product was part of the design for a five car electric car recharging station (which I believe included solar) for a Caribbean Island nation.

    Hawaii, Caribbean islands, and Latin America frequently have power costs of $.40-$.50 per Kwh. With solar now costing $.25 Kwh, battery storage makes economic sense.

    Smart Grid
    Utilities require 10% (sunny areas like CA) to 40% (cloudy areas like NE US) of solar capacity in storage.

    PbC batteries used to "smooth" solar power during the day and to provide frequency regulation at night. The latter role is usually more lucrative.

    Mike Romeo - Senior Scientist
    Mike is pretty young and while he wouldn't confirm it, he would appear to be the successor for Enders Dickenson who a few months ago left the company for family reasons.

    His presentation was pretty standard stuff as far as most Axionistas would be concerned. He talked about eliminating crystals and CDI (Concave down increasing) charging patterns which explains why PbC batteries self-equalize their state of charge when in a string (btw the cells within a battery function in the exact same way).

    He reported that the Axion Powercube DSR (don't remember what the acronym means) or grade that the PbC has earned with PJM is 92% vs. the 70% minimum.

    After the meeting I asked him a question about the BMW test protocol which involved the rest periods, which are very hard on lead-acid batteries. He mentioned an experiment Axion ran where they rested the batteries for five minutes after each event instead of the standard ten seconds. This regime ruined AGM batteries in a matter of a few days. This seems very interesting to me. I wonder if in the future we could see applications that combine AGM and conventional lead acid with PbC based on the idea that the PbC batteries can be used to keep the AGM batteries in a fully charged state. For example, in the streetlight scenario maybe one lead acid and one PbC battery could be used to lower the total system cost.

    Question and Answer Period (Granville, Dantam, Romeo)

    • Tom Granville was asked about the next financing event. He said that the company would only need to raise money if it needed expansion capital, i.e. it would only need to raise more money if growth is greater or comes quicker than expected. I found that to be a hugely important statement.
    • Axion is in ongoing discussions with 2 lead acid battery companies. One is customer driven (presumably BMW and their supplier Johnson Controls / Varta). The second was described as internally driven by a desire to market a product with the capabilities of the PbC.
    • Mr. Granville said that these partner discussions did not involve the partner making the electrodes. He said the companies are working to "validate our product on their line". To me this seemed to be unchanged from the last conference call when he said that the potential partner had successfully built PbC batteries on their line. He did say that testing of the batteries vs. those assembled in New Castle was ongoing.
    • Several minutes later in response to another question he stated that Axion would be open to licensing the electrode and carbon sheeting processes as part of an incremental implementation that started with the entity buying all the complete batteries that Axion could manufacture in its facilities, followed by the partner buying all the electrodes Axion could manufacture, and then all the carbon sheeting Axion could manufacture. Note: It was somewhere around this point where Tom Granville laughed and said that Axion would never partner with Exide.

      I was surprised. It would appear that Mr. Granville signaled that Axion is prepared to be more flexible on licensing than it would have appeared to be in the past. Still, one can see that the technology sharing under such an agreement would only take place after a series of confidence building measures were implemented over a period of years.

    • Vani Dantam talked more about the Lithium Ion battery industry. He said that domestic LI companies had an 18-20% cost advantage over imported LI batteries due to government subsidies and to a lesser extent reduced shipping costs. He did say that Axion faced a little bit of an uphill battle against LI because the latter has a longer, more mature, operating history.
    • Vani stated that ePower trucks are only slightly heavier than conventional trucks with the additional weight of the batteries being partially offset by the smaller fuel tank and smaller engine.
    • I think it was TG who said that Axion met with Rosewater recently and that Rosewater was currently at the CEDIA show in Denver. Note, Jay of ePower reported that he also met recently with Rosewater.
    • In response to a question about the Asian automaker that Axion first mentioned roughly a year ago (Axionistas speculate it is Toyota or Hyundai), Tom Granville had stated that Axion has recently signed an NDA with another division of that company. He had nothing to add on the automobile side. I presume this would imply that the company in question is Hyundai since Toyota has relatively few non-automotive businesses and Hyundai Heavy Industries would seem to have lots of potential for utilizing the PbC (world's largest shipbuilder as well as divisions that provide equipment for electrical utilities, construction, and green energy).
    • On two occasions during the meeting Vani Dantam backed off from the October estimate and referred the questioner to Norfolk Southern's statement that the 999 would be operational by year-end 2014 (just kidding, it's year-end 2013).

    Other Events (Plant Tours, Cocktail party, and side discussions)
    As far as the shop floor impression goes, the battery shop seemed busier than last year. Last year some of the melting pots for lead (I know that's not their real name) had broken down. This year, I think all of them were operating. Also, as JP noted, all three lines were operating.

    The electrode building was the opposite. I'm not sure I saw a single person on the shop floor who wasn't involved in the tour. Last year, the electrode line wasn't operating either, but the operating staff was present and talked with us.

    Overall, the facilities were neat and well maintained. At one point, I can't remember who said it, but one of the long-time employees said the facility looked better than it ever has in their previous experience. An example of this was a section of the concrete floor in the main plant that had recently been replaced. I don't remember it being a problem last year but maybe it was replaced due to some work that had taken place under the floor, but nevertheless, it seemed to be something the person with our tour felt should reflect positively on the company.

    • During the plant tour we were told that there has been continued significant and steady improvements in the electrode line throughput.
    • Prototype 3Kwh and 10Kwh Residential Cubes were on display as well as a streetlight application.
    • Axion has determined that a 3.6 Kwh battery paired with 1.5Kw solar panel system will provide a reduction of 30% in the power bill for a residential scenario involving a home with a baseload approximately the same size as the solar panel output.
    • The inverter used in the 10Kwh system was a Princeton DRI 10 model.
    • The street light was a an LED system supported by 2 x 30 HT batteries. Fully charged, the batteries could support the light for 100 hours of continuous operation. When asked why PbC, it was stated that lead acid batteries would have to be massively oversized to support the application to keep partial state of charge to a minimum. Lithium Ion batteries can have issues with the temperature. My theory on why PbC in this application is that the customer would like to standardize as much as possible. Also, given the time lag to receive replacement parts and the expense of shipping heavy replacement batteries, a long lasting but more expensive solution like the PbC would make more economic sense in the island scenario.

    That evening, during the cocktail party, I followed up with Mr. Granville about his statement that Axion would not need an additional capital raise unless growth exceeds expectations. I characterized my question to him as "sustaining funding" vs. "growth capital". He disputed that characterization but didn't specify why.

    I tried to get more information by saying that I'd assume if the company didn't need more capital it must be near cash flow break-even, which would imply that he must be expecting substantial sales over the next 12 months to get the $15m or more in incremental revenue that would be needed. He disputed the $15m number saying it would depend on product mix. I countered by saying that I'm assuming all of that would be PbC revenue (implying the highest margin business). He laughed and said that he'd like to get 40% margins but they are making proposals at lesser levels of profitability (My $15m number does imply roughly 40% margins but Mr. Granville was the one that brought up that number. BTW, I think that should be the appropriate long-run goal for Axion). I then went on to say that it seemed clear that ePower and Norfolk Southern and BMW weren't going to ramp up that fast and I asked him if he was expecting that the grid business would ramp up anything near that quickly. He didn't say anything confirming what I was saying but I think he would have argued with me if he thought I was off base. Do take the above as my analysis only and other than the 40% margin statement, please don't put much stock in my reading of Mr. Granville's body language.

    • An interesting aside to this conversation was when I suggested to Mr. Granville his statement was reminiscent of his 200-300% mistake back in 2011. He said that when he made that mistake he was thinking 2012 vs. 2010, which would have included substantial growth in the flooded contract. He admitted it was a mistake on his part and mentioned that Chuck Trego told him such as soon as the call ended. Later, I told this to some other Axionistas and they were all skeptical of Mr. Granville's explanation. I suppose we'll never know if this is true, but I guess it's at least as likely an explanation as the theory that Axion was expecting a 50 locomotive order from Norfolk Southern.
    • I asked Mr. Granville about the second half of the 2012 financing. He said that group planned to invest (and actually revised upward the $s during the process) and did what he characterized as an unusually thorough amount of due diligence, including calling customers (which to me would seem to be a normal level of due diligence). That group eventually withdrew for two reasons. Their financial situation weakened during the due diligence process and there appeared to be some issue specific to that organization's leader (ie not having anything to do with Axion). So, that leads me to think that they were involved with three groups: The 2012 group, the strategic investor, and Maxim.

    A few minutes later, someone asked TG what market segments he was most excited about. He answered the same way Vani Dantam answered the question when it had been posed to him a half hour previously: First grid and second, trucking (ePower plus other opportunities). To me this answer added weight to the theory that Axion is expecting a lot of grid business over the next year.

    The following is purely a guess so take it with a shaker of salt.

    I think some Caribbean Island is going to announce a $100m initiative with the consortium of which Axion is a part to install a large number of solar panels along with energy storage/grid management, and energy conservation measures.

    I'll pick St. Lucia as my straw man for no particular reason. The country used 310m Kwh in 2012. At $.50 per Kwh (the number Vani Dantam used as a cost for oil generated electricity), that would be $155m spent on electricity.

    I estimate that each 5% of its total electricity supply switched to solar would cost about $30m and would require about $1m worth of (presumably) Axion power cubes at the 10% solar capacity to battery storage ratio for sunny places that Vani mentioned in his presentation.

    So, very roughly speaking a $100m purchase order could get a system that would generate 15% of electricity used. Such a system would require $3m worth of power cubes. All for a country of 160,000 people.
    END OF GUESS.

    In summary, I learned more than I expected but not enough to get me to go out and immediately buy more stock. Did I look Mr. Granville in the eye and decide he's a good or bad guy? No. BTW, he seemed "healthier" this year (he told me that last year he'd returned the day before the meeting from an overseas trip) for whatever that is worth.

    I would be very, very surprised if the grid sale (or whatever it is) doesn't happen, but the financing was an absolute disaster that will act as a drag on the stock until the PIPE is over next spring. It will take very, very good news to overcome that and I've been conditioned over the years not to expect upside surprises from Axion.

    In any case, the annual meeting was well worth attending and a lot of fun. It was a pleasure to finally meet John Petersen, and all the Axionistas are smart and interesting folks.
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    A BIG THANKS TO APMARSHALL62 FOR A WONDERFUL CONTRIBUTION!
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    Latest News, Articles and Presentations...

    Q2 2013 10Q Results Filing by Axion

    Axion Power International's CEO Discusses Q2 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

    Axion Power Investor Relations Access to Conference Call Replay and Downloadable MP3 (click the microphone icon labeled "2nd Quarter 2013 Earnings Webcast" for "Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 11:00 a.m. ET. Registration required

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    Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE

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    CORRECTED: Axion Power: Is There Light At The End Of The PIPE?

    Axion Power Announces Resignation Of Chief Financial Officer Charles R. Trego; Will Be Nominated To Serve On Board

    Axion Power Receives Additional Purchase Order From EPower Engine Systems To Supply PbC® Batteries And Battery Management Systems For (10) Class 8 Heavy-Duty Trucks --

    The purchase order is an extension of the existing agreement between Axion and ePower and further validates the performance of the PbC batteries in this hybrid application. At ePower's current specifications, each conversion kit System would require 56 PbC batteries and the PbC battery management system (BMS). Axion values each truck conversion battery order at in excess of $20,000.00.

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    FocalPoint Analytics' important comment on Axion Power's recent Financing Transaction

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    Axion Power Receives Order To Supply Class 8 Truck Battery Strings For ePower

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    Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013-Press Release

    Excerpts from the First Quarter 10-Q --

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    Axion Power Completes Private Placement for $9 Million in Senior Convertible Notes With Warrants and $1 Million in Subordinated Unsecured Notes With Warrants --

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    Axion Power on Panel at Energy Storage Economics 2.0 for New YOrk City and Beyond --

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    Axion Power's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

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    Axion Power Reports Results for 2012 --

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    Axion Power Completes New Continuous Roll Carbon Sheeting Process

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    Axion Power and EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic Alliance Using PbC Batteries in Hybrid Drivetrains for Class 8 Trucks

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    Dr. Ed Buiel, Axion's CTO until the end of 2010 -- A link to an archive of his comments on yadoodle about the PbC battery and much more. Invaluable commentary! Thanks to 481086 for putting the list together.

    Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications -- Axion completed shipping its high-performance PbC batteries to Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), one of North America's leading transportation providers, for use in Norfolk Southern's first all electric locomotive - the NS-999.

    "ePower's Series Hybrid Electric Drive - Unmatched Fuel Economy for Heavy Trucks" -- by John Petersen. Discusses the potential fuel savings for ePower's Hybrid electric drive for class 8 trucks using Axion's PbC batteries.

    "Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward" -- by John Petersen. This is an excellent summation on Axion Power's history. It is a good starting point for introducing Axion Power to friends and family.

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    Axion Power Weighted Moving Average Prices and Volume:

    (through 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Price.png

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Volume

    Axion Power Market Cap, Share Count and 200-day Volume:

    Link to JP's write-up on this graph in the header of APC #248 --

    (as of 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Mkt Cap

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    Monthly Volume and FINRA Short Percentage

    The FINRA short tracking graph is beginning to look like it may be a reasonable proxy for selling by the PIPErs. It was an extremely useful tool for tracking the big uglies a couple years ago and so far it seems to be providing the same type of information. If the data does in fact track the PIPErs activity, the lines would suggest that they pounded hard in May to set up a fear dynamic, eased up a bit in June once the angst was established and eased up again in July as the angst gained momentum and the stock price stabilized. [Prior months graphs' comments follow APH] With three days left to go in the month, July is already the all-time volume leader by about 400,000 shares. Unless volume plummets over the next three days, I'm expecting a total volume of more than 15 million shares for the month. It's a lot of selling, but its also a lot of buying and I don't think the buyers are timid or weak.

    (updated through 09/29/2013)

    (click to enlarge)9.29.13 AXPW Short

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    Axion Power Concentrator Comments Statistics:

    (updated through 08/17/2013)

    (click to enlarge)8.17.13 APC Comments

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    Links to important Axion Power research and websites:

    The Axion Power Concentrator Web Sites, created by APC commentator Bangwhiz. It is a complete easy-to-use online archive of all the information contained in the entire Axion Power Concentrator series from day one, including reports, articles, comments and posted links.

    Axion Power Wikispaces Web Site, created by APC commentator WDD. It is an excellent ongoing notebook aggregation of Axion Power facts.

    Axion Power Website. The first place any prospective investor should go and thoroughly explore with all SEC filings and investor presentations as well as past and present Press Releases.

    Axion Power Intra day Statistics Tracking: (new edition 10/1/2013) HTL tracks and charts AXPW's intra-day statistics.

    PbC Cost Estimating Spreadsheet and Instablog: Apmarshall62 put together an instablog for estimating costs of the PbC. It includes a downloadable spreadsheet that you can use to plug in your own cost estimations.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Be sure and either follow the Axion Power Host ID on Seeking Alpha or click the check-box labeled "track new comments on this article" just ahead of the comments section!
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    WARNING: This is a troll free zone. We reserve the right to eliminate posts, or posters that are disruptive.

    Enjoy

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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Comments (274)
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  • Thanks, APH!

     

    For providing and managing such a remarkable forum. In the tough times, it helps to have a place to commiserate and share the hopium pipe.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • Silly game that should have ended by now, but, for once, =I'm= in the top running... Let's see how today unfolds after a terrific yesterday!
    11 Oct 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • "What a difference a day makes."
    11 Oct 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • 10/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in ~1 hour).
    # Trds: 326, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 2654600, AvTrSz: 8143
    Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1260, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1106
    # Buys, Shares: 150 1280793, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1122
    # Sells, Shares: 173 1358807, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1092
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1105
    Buy:Sell 1:1.06 (48.2% "buys"), DlyShts 838193 (31.58%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.69%

     

    Some positive news apparently moved share price up today. Another affirmation, IMO, of the success and viability of the PbC for Norfolk Southern's NS-999 is strongly implied in “Update Report On Hybrid Norfolk Southern Switcher Locomotive To Be Presented At 7th Annual ASME Rail Conference”.

     

    http://bit.ly/16B43Yc

     

    This is pretty good news, but not, I think, the “big news” needed to sustain an upward trend in share price over time in the face of the PIPE “financiers'” activity unless they suddenly decide to switch modes and focus on accumulating a long position. From what we've seen and also learned from John Petersen, I can't see this as likely. The actual roll-out of NS-999 and attendant publicity might be enough to support a sustained upward trend, but I believe some good actual additional sales of scale is what is needed.

     

    Early in the day I commented that I thought today's short sales would come out of the pit. The daily short sales jumped to 31.58% from yesterday's 6.92%. I believe a good portion of this was due to folks taking the opportunity to reduce paper losses or lock in profits as share price rose. With the “buys” (hitting the ask) being stronger than usual today I believe that's where most of the shorts came from. This because when “buys” have been low and “sells” (hitting the bid) have been high, the daily short sales have generally been low. If our assessment that this long trend of “sells” is related to the “financiers” behavior, that implies the mechanics of the “financiers'” selling does not cause high daily short sales. That suggests most of today's short sales were not related to the PIPErs.

     

    This leaves us with the unpleasant scenario suggested by answering the question “Who gets exhausted first – buyers or sellers”?

     

    For me the answer is, unfortunately, buyers.

     

    This sort of news is generally good for a few days pop, at most. When the pop is done, the PIPErs will still be here with the new-issue and true-up shares coming into their control in the (now) low $0.10 range. Shortly, regardless of any share price increase in the next twenty days, they will get additional shares at no more than this price. Further, it is highly likely, IMO, that they will shortly be getting prices in the 9 cent area as new daily VWAPs below $0.12 and $0.11 are injected into the 20-day window. To avoid this it looks like we need VWAPs to stay at or above ~$0.125. Guarantee of not dropping further would be only if we maintain $0.1285 or better, as that's the price getting ready to fall out of the 20-day window and be replaced with a lower VWAP.

     

    Even with today's good news and high volume, we did a VWAP of $0.1106.

     

    Price spread was 26% today, but I think I'll forgo complaining about it. After all, at least VWAP was up even though not likely sustainable as a trend.

     

    ARCA behaved strangely today, even before the run-up started. Please ignore the misspelling of “weird” in this comment. http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I mentioned yesterday the 10, 25 and 50-day averages of buy percentage were all below the bottom of a range I consider normal, ~30% and the 100-day average was dropping too, although still in the normal range. We'll need to see the buy percentage stay at 30% or greater for an extended period to see the averages move back into normal range, and more importantly, offset the PIPErs effect that I expect will still be here for some time.

     

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049
    10/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1224, x 85%: $0.1040
    10/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1211, x 85%: $0.1030
    10/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1202, x 85%: $0.1022

     

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66, 927.51, 505.80, 2,654.60.

     

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

     

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, and inflection points omitted here.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • HTL > "This (NS999 update) is pretty good news, but not, I think, the “big news” needed to sustain an upward trend in share price over time in the face of the PIPE “financiers'” activity unless they suddenly decide to switch modes and focus on accumulating a long position. "

     

    Could well be valid assessment, HTL, though I am wondering about the role (if any) that announcement played into the $2.08 share gain in NSC yesterday. If the PR was a factor in NSC price move and the ASME update is not disappointing AXPW share price might have a chance of holding firm until TG's "significant sales" prediction is confirmed (or not).
    11 Oct 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • APH> I don't want to appear critical because my graphs are part of the problem but I wonder whether trying to include too much information in the Instablog doesn't encourage readers to blow past the information in a rush to get to the comments.

     

    In today's edition, for example, it might have been more useful to focus on the upcoming ASME presentation where NS and Axion will speak publicly about the work they've done over the last three years on the NS 999.
    11 Oct 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » John: That's not critical, it's a valid consideration.

     

    While drumming my fingers waiting for various SA functions to let me get on with the job this morning, I considered the same sorts of things, except for the folks blowing right past the header to get to the comments.

     

    There's no help for those sorts.

     

    My thoughts were that I wanted to give APMarshall62's stuff adequate airing before it disappeared into a corner, so I decided to leave it for this iteration.

     

    Then I considered making all content of any length permanent blogs with only links here. That bumped into a convenience consideration but magnified beyond just linking back to prior concentrators. So that didn't seem attractive.

     

    My primary concern was load time for folks that have slower connections or limited platforms, which have issues regardless of links or in-line content.

     

    So I decided to think about it some more to try and get a good balance. I'm not naturally a great editor, so it's not simple for me to decide.

     

    I'm wondering about trying to just provide a synopsis here for lengthy content and providing a link to the full text of anything lengthy. That bumps into considerations of editor mistakes of various types (most egregious being those that may leave the original content author disgruntled), lack of full comprehension by those that may not follow the links, ...

     

    Your thoughts were welcome and I welcome any thoughts from others that may help me decide going forward.

     

    Thanks!
    11 Oct 2013, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • What exactly does the term "grid business" mean?
    Thanks.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Bill, "grid business" refers to our possible involvement with power smoothing on the electric power grid, national and local. Generation companies, utilities, etc.

     

    It implies much more, but that's a reasonable thumbnail sketch.
    12 Oct 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/16B4UIf

     

    ePower' PR related to the hiring of JP!

     

    Again, congratulations John :)

     

    Amine
    11 Oct 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • I concur in JP's suggestion that shortening the instablog could be beneficial. One approach to shortening could take the form of including APM's report on the AGM and then referring readers to past APCs for more distant history?
    11 Oct 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks D-Inv. See my reply to JP above.
    11 Oct 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Could we do a "New" flag next to any adds or changes?
    13 Oct 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Tim: A good thought! I've not looked to see what's available before. Will start looking as time allows.
    14 Oct 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • >Tim Enright,

     

    I'm sorry for being so slow to understand your suggestion for improving the 'forward' on the APC, as had John Petersen. I like your idea of inserting a "NEW" flag for any changes/additions to the APC opening. I, too often skip directly to the comments section until I come to a comment referencing a post to the APC opening.

     

    I initially missed the excellent info "Notes on the 9/26/13 AGM with thanks to APMarshall62". Surely not all readers here suffer my limitations at keeping informed, but for the 'other' couple of us, I think your suggestion is a perfect solution and would have immediately drawn my attention to APM's contribution.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • I find myself zooming down the page heading for the check box. It would be nice if SA provided the functionality but I am doubtful. A simple "New - above the line" type of thing followed by a sectional <<New>> marker that we could jump to with our browser find function.

     

    Anyway, our APH crew are very a creative and talented bunch. I am sure they will come up with something good...
    14 Oct 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • TGIF
    11 Oct 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Bids NITE $0.12x100K, ATDF $0.1173x30K, then $0.11x400K, x49K, x63K CANT CDEL and ETRF.

     

    Asks not so large at $0.124/$0.125/$0.1264 ...

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • I just want to add my voice of thanks for this ongoing due dilly.
    Looks like AXPW may be on verge of waking up from long nap.

     

    Doug
    11 Oct 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/19F5Dut

     

    Any press is good press.
    11 Oct 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • More fuel for the fire:
    http://bit.ly/17u4KOB
    11 Oct 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • >JP — RE: “... it's hard to argue when a first tier company like NS publicly wraps its arms around a technology like the PbC in a venue like the ASME Rail Transportation Division Fall Technical Conference. — It's a bit like BMW wrapping its arms around the PbC at the 2010 European Lead Battery Conference in Istanbul.”
    .........................

     

    As happy as I am about your new position(s) with ePower, I can’t help but think how nice it would be if you had been named new CFO of Axion, although I can see where ePower is actually the best place to be to help both companies. --- In this regard, my understanding is that BMW wrapping its arms around the PbC in Istanbul paved the way for Axion’s ability to secure their significant capital raise in 2009 ($25M or so?).

     

    If NS publicly embracing the PbC is similar, should Axion have an easier time in the capital markets going forward as a result of just this one event (not to mention sales orders arriving soon)? — Also, as you scour the landscape to secure financing for ePower, ISTM there’s a good possibility you could run across funding sources that might be beneficial to Axion. Would be interested in hearing any comments you might have on this. — Thanks!

     

    BTW, it appears your post on accepting your positions with ePower has received a record number of “likes” (now at 41 and rising). — I’m sure many of us would like to hit it more than once!
    11 Oct 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Axion is a much more complex company than ePower from a financial and accounting perspective. While I don't mind managing a simple accounting and reporting function, I'd be reluctant to accept the CFO role in a company with Axion's level of complexity.

     

    Going forward, a big part of my work for ePower will be focused on seeking new financing while building industry and regulatory relationships. To the extent that I develop relationships that may benefit Axion, you can be sure that appropriate introductions will be made. I expect the same will be true when Axion develops new relationships that may benefit ePower. The bottom line is both companies want the other to be as strong as possible.
    11 Oct 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • John, please forgive if this is an inappropriate question given your new position but are there any plans to eventually take ePower public?
    11 Oct 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • It's way too early to tell. Investors don't typically put money into a privately held company unless there's a pretty clear indication of where their exit will come from. In a company like ePower the two most likely exits will be a buyout by a larger company or an IPO transaction. Both have advantages and disadvantages and until we have a clearer idea of what ePower's long-term capital needs will be it's impossible to handicap the outcome.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • My congratulations John, I see your position as a great benefit to epower as well as increasingly stronger commitment to Axion by epower, they must know your past relationship and loyalty to Axion is a net win, win for their venture.

     

    As you have pointed out in your posts this isn't the first road epower has traveled, but they have determined the PbC is the road to ride. I am encouraged by this news, best of luck to you, epower and Axion.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting how a 20% gain in two days on decent volume is basically "yawn...". I think 0.30-0.40 is the immediate trading range on any more good news., a buck on any surprises, as even its cheerleaders are cautious about expecting much from the "new orders".
    11 Oct 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • One of my favorite games when I was a kid was connect-the-dots...

     

    "Canadian Solar Inc. 's (CSIQ) subsidiary Canadian Solar Solutions Inc. has signed a contract with a fund managed by BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) to sell two utility-scale solar power plants. These projects have a total electric generation capacity of 20-megawatt (MW) AC. The plants are located at Demorestville and Odessa in Ontario, Canada. "

     

    http://tinyurl.com/lge...

     

    With Blackrock owning/operating 20 megawatts of solar electricity generation in Ontario, might they benefit from a significant purchase of battery energy storage?
    Oh, yeah, Blackrock was on the Axion cc a few months back, so they must know all about the PbC and the PowerCubes.
    And, Oh again... Rosewater has some doings up in Ontario...

     

    Certainly there are several dots but how to connect them is the fun game.

     

    I am still hoping for an AXPW 1.00 pps this year and with all the developments this week I am more confident than ever and adding to my position.

     

    Tim
    11 Oct 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • It appears we have some big sellers willing to let go at between .125 and .13 today...
    11 Oct 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • TB: So far the usual with ARCA leading the charge.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • And lower. Good news is wonderful. 10 million PIPE shares per month of potential supply, not so much.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Hence the urgency in getting this mystery sales news out.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, RE: "Good news is wonderful. 10 million PIPE shares per month of potential supply, not so much."
    .........................

     

    That's why I'm so interested in whether Axion may soon have an easier time in the capital markets as a result of the NS presentation and new sales orders. If they do, I would like to see them leverage this to squarely address this massive share issuance.

     

    I believe Apple and many other companies have recently accessed the credit markets in a major way to do share buy backs of their own. If Axion was able to raise $25M in 2009 when BMW embraced the PbC, I don’t see why they couldn’t raise, or at least try to raise, a few million in the near future to in some way try to swap out the PIPE financing for FAR more favorable terms.

     

    Could they pay the PIPRs in cash (perhaps with some kind of penalty); could they just buy back shares as soon as the PIPRs dump them on the market? Defending the pps to whatever degree they could (even minimally) would send a powerful message, and perhaps provide a turning point, not only for shareholders (and potential shareholders), but I think to the huge benefit of the company as well. --- The current market cap is just so ridiculous, and the ongoing PIPE overhang is a huge part of that.

     

    These kinds of ideas seem to strike most Axionistas here as implausible, and perhaps they are. But I would sure like to see some out of the box thinking on how tens of millions of shares flooding the market in the next six months could be short-circuited, in whatever way and to whatever extent possible.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, Wayne, but I believe the toxic notes are a done deal. Now we just have to suffer until they are gone.

     

    We MIGHT (if we are real lucky) see sufficient good news and sales to get the share price back to the $.264 amount, which would cut down considerably on the numbers of shares needed to meet the notes and interest.

     

    At this point I would consider $.264 a gift.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • "Sorry, Wayne, but I believe the toxic notes are a done deal. Now we just have to suffer until they are gone."
    .........................

     

    TB, I'm really curious, do you believe it just can't be done, or won't be done, perhaps because Axion management just doesn't want to think about it anymore and has no inclination to do so? Or some other reason? My knowledge of corporate and/or microcap financing is limited, but my pragmatic and conservative inclinations from my German background tells me there's got to be some way to change the current situation.

     

    If I had for some reason felt forced to take out a loan at say 100% interest because my survival depended on it, I would do it. But I would immediately begin pounding the streets to see if I could get a loan elsewhere for say 10% to free myself from the loan shark once I had the ability to do so. --- My apologies to those who are probably shaking their heads and believe I beating a dead horse, but I've not yet heard a plausible explanation as to why the PIPE scenario has to play out according to the PIPRs playbook.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • These are binding contracts. Far too late to back out now, and the way to go forward with the least possible pain is to drive the share price up with Great News and big sales...

     

    Which of course will make the Gang of .25 even more money.

     

    But at least then we would be making money, too.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Wayne,

     

    The PIPE loan is restricted for certain uses only and I'm sure buybacks would not be one of them. The PIPE terms do not allow prepayment, but do allow Axion to pay in cash any installment.

     

    If better terms than the PIPE were unavailable last spring, it's unlikely they could be found now, but not impossible. As I've said before, I believe that Axion as a tech startup has focused on R & D so much that financing is an afterthought, and so we have suffered. At least we know post AGM that TG is disgusted with the PIPE deal and will hopefully put more effort into financing in the future.

     

    An angel investor now to pay off the PIPE would be great, but doubtful. The first thing they would ask is why they should offer so much better terms than the entire capital markets did a mere 6 months ago? Once you do a deal with a loan shark you're tainted and appear to be a bad credit risk. Then they'll see the plummeting share price since and wonder what's rotten.

     

    You certainly cannot compare Axion to Apple and other highly profitable companies. Apple had a war chest of $150 per share in cash, no debt, and earns $35/sh annually. The only reason they used debt to fund a buyback was that if they repatriated their foreign held cash for the buyback they'd have been hit by a huge tax bill.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • R.A.: In retrospect, the warrants to existing shareholders offer that we discussed here on the board looks like it would've been a great deal now.

     

    But it was viewed as an overhang and some thought it wasn't such a great idea.

     

    I think a poll now might show different results.

     

    Anyway, it's all "bridge under the water" now, so no use pursuing it.

     

    HardToLove
    P.S.: Along with "one swell foop", that bridge malapropism is one of my favorites.
    11 Oct 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Just wondering if Axion raised money could the Pipers be bought off? (For something semireasonable, say 25% gain.)
    11 Oct 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    I would have loved being issued Axion warrants, esp long term ones. Problem for Axion is how much money would it raise? They only get cash if and when warrants get exercised, so it's impossible to say how much they would raise and when. Further, warrants or rights offerings can cause big problems, esp in illiquid stocks.

     

    For example, suppose pps is 50 cents. Axion issues for every share owned a warrant to buy one share at 35 cents. Great deal, right? Except as warrants get exercised the supply of outstanding shares increasing by leaps and bounds depresses the price. (Demand likely shrinks in the market too because if you have warrants then you don't have to go to the market to accumulate more shares.) Plus the market sees the dilution and the fact that the 35 cents raised will get cash-burned in about a year, and so the market reprices the stock much lower than 50 cents, or even much lower than the 35 cents. At that point nobody will exercise any warrants so Axion doesn't raise much cash. Back to the drawing board

     

    froggey,

     

    Sure if Axion raises cash (my preference would be in the form of SALES) they can pay the 6 remaining installments in cash rather than shares. I do not want to see Axion pay the PIPErs by issuing straight debt though, because then the potential specter of bankruptcy appears. Not good. As bad as the PIPE deal is, it is in our interest have a convertible debt that we can repay entirely in shares at our option.

     

    As for finding a different lender that is more benevolent, I think it's a pipe dream. Why refinance on easy terms a cash-poor company's debt with new debt that the company can convert to common shares at its option? It's actually VERY risky for the lender to get huge illiquid chunks of stock in a company that has negative profits, so who would do that without extracting a pound of flesh?

     

    The real opportunity here for an investor with millions of $ who wants an equity interest in Axion (while minimizing the damage the PIPErs cause) is to simply buy shares in the open market to keep the VWAP above 10 cents and prevent a penalty.

     

    Remember that the PIPErs initial installments were based on a look back window when pps was 14 or 15 cents. They paid 85% of that, or around 12 or 12.5 cents. So anybody who just bought in the open market for less than that is getting a *better* deal than the PIPErs did on their first couple of installments! Yes you can beat the loan shark.

     

    If I had $50 million I absolutely would put up to $10 million in AXPW stock simply bought in the open market at these prices we are seeing now. The exception would be if Axion would issue me shares directly at market-beating prices (not allowed under the PIPE covenant I'm sure). In a perverse sense the PIPE deal is actually _good_ for somebody who can load up now on shares in the market as the PIPEr heavy selling (as well as extreme negativity about it) is precisely what has brought the market cap down to under 20 million fully diluted. It's a remarkable buying opportunity for a proven disruptive technology product that is absolutely needed, pays for itself, mitigates CO2 which is one of the most publicized problems of our day, and beats the pants off of competing technologies in certain important metrics. AXPW is certainly my top stock pick of 2013, and who knows, the shares bought at these levels could very well end up being my best stock performer ever.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • A perfect statement.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks RA, your comprehensive views are much appreciated! --- I wasn't aware Axion had the option to pay the coming monthly installments in cash. I would hope they would if there were sufficient revenues to do so, as I think it would be highly beneficial to both Axion and its shareholders.
    12 Oct 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you RA, very strong medicine for my leaking commitment.
    Bringing me back from too far gone!
    12 Oct 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • I don't like the loan shark group, but I can appreciate a very beat down stock price. The NS/Axion presentation will open many eyes. Some of those eyes will have a second or third look at the electrode and battery, but also the stock because NS is acting in a way it rarely does in terms of corporate communication.

     

    I continue to add to my holdings because I don't think this is truly a 12 cent stock. Even though I am getting a "PIPE" discount, I am adding.

     

    Fleet
    13 Oct 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks all, much obliged! I thought Axion had the option to pay any installment in cash. JP posted elsewhere some verbiage from the contract that says it's not optional and that cash payment only happens mandatorily in the event of an Equity Condition Failure. I guess I did not remember correctly.

     

    If paying an installment in cash is not at our option, then I'm even more disgusted by the PIPE. That means the deal is really just a $9m equity purchase, not a loan.

     

    If that's so, why all the incredibly convoluted terms and nonsense? Just sit down and haggle about how many shares you'll get for your $9m and be done with it. No nine installments with look-backs and Equity Conditions and share prepayments and true ups and 25% penalties. Good gawd, what a contingency nightmare and completely stacked deck for the PIPErs to manipulate pps down to their advantage through heavy selling, and then act like the resultant "Equity Condition Failure" is Axion's fault!.
    15 Oct 2013, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • John is right, my sour mood caused by multiple issues with Axion has prevented me from continuing my normal research activities. However, the glimmer of light from yesterday's presentation had me look at a couple things:

     

    Here is a new Axion presentation:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hIaKcu

     

    Don't have time to analyze right now,
    11 Oct 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Appears Axion may be presenting again at the Advanced Power Solutions conference:

     

    http://bit.ly/18VaqVO

     

    http://bit.ly/18Vaox0

     

    I think Enders presented last year.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • An oldie but a goody that came back up today ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1hIcEd6
    11 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Appears to be an interesting new Sandia document that Vani was affiliated with:

     

    Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and
    Expressing the Performance of Energy
    Storage Systems

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1hId8zS
    11 Oct 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, thx for the pres link. Looks like it has some new info? Tech-heads---if there's new info, is it better, worse or the same as the info we already had?

     

    I'm guessing some of this might be presented Tues, e.g., page 11, as it's from the Penn State research. Unless it's old data, of course.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • I wish they'd use an update picture of the carbon electrode line. That picture shows it so unready for production. Gives the impression they just put the last electrical drop in 5 minutes ago.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • On slide 11, it appears they compare a Varta (JCI) battery to a PbC.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Slide 12 looks like it is from the Idaho National Laboratory presentation that I tried to get and was told it was proprietary.
    11 Oct 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,
    Not sure what to make of this statement on slide 27:

     

    "First Norfolk – Southern Locomotive with Axion Batteries will go into operation in 4th quarter this year. Projections show that a single locomotive will save tens of thousands of gallons of diesel/yr in Crescent Corridor (From Roanoke, VA to New Orleans, LA) and significant reductions in emissions."

     

    I assume they are talking about the yard slug, but the text seems to be describing an OTR locomotive. I guess they are trying to project the second from information from the first. IMHO
    11 Oct 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Labtech -

     

    Not sure, but it appears to me that on slide 8 of the new NS presentation they are presenting OTR load profiles and FWIW, I think the Cresent Corridor is where they want to run the OTR locomotive.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • On page 8. Tests for cycle life.
    Apparently there is now a rather accurate estimate for predicting the cycle lift at different levels of Dept-of-Discharge. And further tests going on.
    At 0% it is 200.000 and counting.
    At 50% is has been tested to around 4500 cycles.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Great work Stephan Nothing like work to take the mond off short-term travails.

     

    One of my "cures" is splitting wood (if I still can - haven't done it for a long while).

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks to Stefan.

     

    Here is the Abstract for Philippe Westreich presentation at the Advanced Power Solutions Conference.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bjuv8m

     

    In this presentation, two promising heavy hybrid vehicle applications for Axion Power’s PbC® battery technology will be examined. Locomotives and long-haul trucks are moving toward hybridization in order to improve efficiency and save fuel. Both types of vehicles face the prospect of increasing regulation towards reduction of emissions, and hybridization with batteries is a promising path toward fuel savings and emmissions reductions. Axion Power is involved in projects with Norfolk Southern Railway and ePower Engine Systems which take advantage of the hybrid lead-carbon battery/supercapacitor device’s performance attributes. High charge acceptance, rapid recharge, low voltage variation in strings, high cycle life, and other attributes will be discussed. The presentation will examine battery performance and Axion’s commercialization path in these applications.

     

    Other items to note from this conference: A speaker for Chrysler will be speaking during the storage part of the conference instead of the Transportation section (where Axion will).
    11 Oct 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan and Poul,
    Yes, slide 8 does explain where the data is coming from for the Cresent Corridor text.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Penn State?

     

    You mean those guys/girls/others who supposedly have been pounding the cwrap out of PbC's for years now?

     

    That would be interesting. As Far As I Know we have never heard anything from them.

     

    I am all ears! actually mostly belly these days but you know what I mean!
    11 Oct 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • This link will open but it will only show 1 page. Is anyone else having this problem. I tried in FF and Safari
    11 Oct 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc,
    Are you looking at the abstract link from mrholty (which is only one page) or the NS presentation from Stefan, which is 20 pages on their sides?
    11 Oct 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • The presentation is available on the Investor Relations page of Axion's website.

     

    http://bit.ly/13GdnJ6

     

    The link is in the right hand column immediately below the stock quote.
    11 Oct 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, bless your heart. You've made my day, week, and probably month. Great catch!
    11 Oct 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • from Stephan Thanks
    11 Oct 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • ditto
    11 Oct 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan-
    Is there another address I can use for this? It opens for me, I see it's 127 pages and then it goes static and I cannot access more than what is on the screen.

     

    Thanks,

     

    Gordon
    11 Oct 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • You can PM me with your e-mail address and I'll send you a copy of the presentation.
    11 Oct 2013, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • Never mind the PM. I found your e-mail in one of my archive files and sent a PDF copy of the presentation.
    11 Oct 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, splitting wood, really? I did my share on the farm, a necessity for hearth side comfort and family harmony. Now I'm content to take my "cures" watching my wife iron.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Work fascinates me, I can watch others do it for hours on end.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Bill: I never had to do such while growing up moving around as part of a military family. Once I got to NC as an adult with my own family, where we have real trees (unlike my "hometown" out west), I eventually installed a wood-burning stove in one of the fireplaces.

     

    There was something very satisfying about the crack of an oak hit in exactly the right spot with a 13 lb monster maul (which by that time I could swing with one hand).

     

    Also satisfying was being able to stand back and *see* what had been accomplished when it was stacked and ready to dry before the heating season.

     

    This was different from the satisfaction of computer software work where you couldn't see what you had accomplished except for the occasional visit to an end user that liked your stuff.

     

    For about 10 years never had to buy any heating oil at all.

     

    Same satisfaction from welding and building trailers that my neighbor and I used to do, plumbing factories on some weekends, ...

     

    There's a lot to be said for "craft", IMO. Even at this age I know I could get a lot of satisfaction from it.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John: we call them "supervisors"! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Thank you, John.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • HTL-
    I agree. I learned to weld and do fiberglass to build my own race cars. When I work with people to help them create what they want from their lives, it works...and I get thanks...but there is no concrete thing I see I built. Seeing the thing you built is powerful.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • I'll volunteer my expertize at doing photos . . .
    12 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, the Crescent Corridor is reference to the "Southern Crescent" which was the last class I privately held passenger train operated by Southern Railway. It ran from New Orleans to Washington DC. Has since been taken over by AMTRACK.

     

    And yes, you are 100% right. It's a perfect test line because of its variation in roadbed, rail, topography, etc.
    12 Oct 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Thotdoc: "Seeing the thing you built is powerful".

     

    You can imagine my ... uh "distress" at my wife when she decided the privacy fence I built around our pool back in '86 suddenly didn't meet her aesthetic approval a couple years ago.

     

    It was 8' high, 2' in the ground in concrete, treated 4x4 posts and 1x6" runners alternating to allow wind to pass w/o tearing down the fence and joints of the 1x6s alternating on the posts too, and 100% done by myself with no power tools (digging the post holes in that yellow clay was the toughest part) or help. Raising, with my back, 12' sections I pre-assembled was the next hardest part

     

    Well, "Revenge is mine sayeth the Lord"!

     

    After she replaced it with a "pretty" brick and phony "wrought iron" sections fence, one whole section (around 30'?) fell over in less than three months. The rest doesn't look all that great, IMO, but it'll stand.

     

    I'll admit a guilty pleasure at seeing it happen. :-)) And she knows it too!

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Thotdoc: Must have been a great deal of satisfaction in that! Get both the "mechanical" and some "artistic" expression all in one endeavor.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Personally I am always ready and willing to get out of the way and let somebody else work. :-)
    12 Oct 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Here is the 2013 NS presentation for next week from the Axion website:

     

    http://bit.ly/18VbokV
    11 Oct 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • good-looking train
    11 Oct 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, Thanks for sharing all your findings.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • Slide 10 illustrates nicely why the JCI AGM stop-starts are failing after about 3 months.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • No problem guys, I just hate the feeling that my head is getting slapped and to be quite honest, TG has left me feeling like that for quite some time.
    11 Oct 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Beautiful green and black train.

     

    ePower will be a little less discrete with the Gen-3 prototypes. We're planning on "Predator Green."
    11 Oct 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Racking concept looks a lot like a proposal I saw on a Canadian hybrid concept. Expensive but makes so much sense for access. Especially until you get long term durability data.

     

    What a contrast to throwing the batteries in off the shelf trays with no air flow or access. A nightmare when one fails.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • I think a slogan like would work as well.
    I propose:

     

    "This truck gets better mpg than you loaded F-350 with your fat kids in the back"
    11 Oct 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • That's not far off mrholty. On the Indiana we took the bobtail tractor and a Toyota Tundra to Elizabeth Indiana (216 mile round-trip). When we stopped to refuel near the end of the trip the tractor needed 17.x gallons and the Tundra needed 15.x.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Your comment about that earlier made me think of it so I looked up online at the Tundra supposedly gets 17 mpg and the F-350 is 12-13mpg.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Nice find, Stefan.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,

     

    Great finds =)

     

    Imo - this would normally be a pps bottom with the volume and good news were seeing not to mention promise of order by November.

     

    But then again the PIPErs may not care as they have no patience for larger returns.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Bazooooka: it crossed my mind today that one or more of the PIPErs may have a daily volume goal, price regardless, This because I was wondering if ARCA would bow out early, as it sometimes does, or not.

     

    Of course that led to wondering why and when.

     

    We'll never know, but it could explain the almost-guaranteed late-day weakness that seems so common.

     

    Wondering, always wondering (it's a curse, I assure you),
    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • To me that's a racking system that says "we mean it".

     

    Notice they say "customized" container structure. I'm thinking you don't go through that amount of trouble and expense, also locking in a particular battery format, if you don't have big plans going forward...
    11 Oct 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • 48: I bet they were "racking" their brains over that for a while. More puns available but forgone in an attempt to show *some* class (I can be a no-class low-class at times).

     

    HardToLove
    11 Oct 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • His style is not that of being a communicator. If you want to understand his style, go to my website http://bit.ly/TCvAx7 and download the Attachment Strategies. Then read Mixed Avoidant style.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Appears that IntraPack makes the battery cabinets.
    http://intrapack.com

     

    TMV makes the control systems
    http://tmvcontrol.com

     

    R.S. Runyon ?

     

    Seems Drop Box Inc. makes the containers for testing
    http://bit.ly/1bMgLaA
    11 Oct 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • I love the NS block on page 9. It warms the cockles of my heart to see Axion's marquee position eclipse the Juniata Shop, the DOE, the DOT and Penn State.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John, I thought the same thing.
    I waited to see who'd mention it. :-)
    Position has meaning for sure.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • BTW, The contrast between the implications of this presentation and what Axion got for financing makes me feel ill. Makes no sense.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • I'll be curious to hear what our faithful NS culture guide makes of that one.
    11 Oct 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Position, and hmmm, size matters?
    11 Oct 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Absolutely Iindelco

     

    Stefan's web searches show stuff that is out there.
    Its interesting that AXPW has put the presentation for the ASME conference on their website but not the presentation from the Indiana conference. Post it please...

     

    Why no email that they will be speaking/present at the conference in San Diego? Their attendance on a panel in NYC was much less and warranted a message.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • I've heard size matters.

     

    Heard.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • It does....
    11 Oct 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • ii,

     

    I don't remember you ever having doubted the relationship with NS; what contrast do you refer to?

     

    Is there something in the data that makes you feel like Axion's IP value alone should exceed its market price.

     

    I still think for us long term holders that significant PbC sales are so tardy that at this point nothing but purchase orders can move the stock by 25%+.

     

    However, if you think this means NS is about to cut BIG checks then yes I'm too surprised TG couldn't find us a better dance partner.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Bazooooka: The announcement of the NSC/Axion presention had us up over 21% intra-day.

     

    Couldn't hold with the PIPErs, and maybe some momo traders, though. Day two has us up ~4%+.

     

    I don't believe it will hold after the two or three day up move though.

     

    But as some have suggested, pop on the presentation itself might occur.

     

    Overall though, for long-term I agree with you - big news in the form of some sales are needed to overcome the PIPErs in a sustainable fashion. And the really good stuff will come after they run out of shares.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • That is a lot of big organizations with intimate knowledge of the battery. The possibilities that raises would put a spring in one's step.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • I do not think that TG understands how to ask for help or communicates it when he needs help. The partners are likely unaware of our circumstances regarding $$.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc, I can assure you I believe TG is capable of communicating very very well. But partners (NS, perhaps) are not going to buy batteries just because we need help. They're running their own company.

     

    I'm comfortable NS is very much aware of our financial circumstances. I could be wrong, but I'd lay odds.

     

    Will love to read the book when it is published. I know that things look desperate now, but looks can be deceiving. The stock price is not the company nor its business. It is the stock price. It is my judgement that TG is exceptionally cunning. I'm betting on it after all. :>)
    12 Oct 2013, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Are potential buyers of AXION experiencing a change in sentiment towards the stock that will break move the stock up significantly?

     

    I don't think so, as I believe market sentiment is still against batteries in general and this specific stock, at this point.

     

    We don't talk much about sentiment. I think a lot about it. It's the sentiment that causes pps movements down, that go past where they should, and pps movements higher to go past where they should. I trying to learn to focus on the factors related to sentiment re batteries and Axion that could move us closer to predictability. For instance, understanding the sentiment that drove Telsa even though all the facts were against it is helpful. The sentiment that drove the stock price is related to the belief that the company is run by a savant of some kind, a man who will make it happen through his genius or fortune. The sentiment is: He's a winner and I can ride his coat tails.

     

    We do not have that sort of leader and I'm not saying we should have. I'm just trying to make a point. Sentiment towards this stock will change and pps will go up, PIPERS or not, when the sentiment of fear turns to greed.

     

    What are the factors of that tipping point in sentiment? Does NS embrace change the sentiment? I don't think so. I believe the change in sentiment will need to be orders that lead to long term profitability. I believe this stock has been around long enough to need to prove it will survive, and one great customer will not do that...unless sentiment towards batteries changes.

     

    I believe the change in sentiment is starting but not at a tipping point.
    There is also the sentiment of those who use batteries that need our specific charge characteristics. That must change from fear to greed.

     

    I believe that is happening now. But, what are the factors of that sentiment?

     

    A long time ago, JP wrote about the storage needs of the future and the pot of gold at the end of that rainbow.. He was right about that. But, none of us imagined the tortuous path littered with bankruptcies that we'd be on or the time it would take to get to the end of the rainbow..
    12 Oct 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • >thotdoc ... I'm thinking that part of the problem is how this coming need for grid storage, transportation etc. was poor marketing. I know most here will blame the government but I do not ... directly because we are the government. So if people really want to know why things are screwed up ... look in a mirror, turn off the TV and read a little more. I'll forgo the screed.

     

    The basic problem I see is that the need is a new one to people and thus required a new technology to solve it. Or at a minimum, applying the highest technology to it. Our corporate brethren somehow convinced our government leaders, who know very little about the problem or solution but know of the problem, that they could solve the problem. All it would take is a little money.

     

    Seems most people figure a battery is a battery and one is as good as another for whatever purpose it's applied too. I believe that is one big reason Norfolk Southern & Railpower before it failed so badly. Basically it boils down for me that some saw an opportunity to make a buck and NO ONE asked if the solution would actually work before going all in. I've always been a fan of government, associated with academia, doing pure research but when it comes to applied research something like the method used with the X-Prize is best for public funding. Specifically define a problem or set a desired result, prove an approach might work and fund what shows promise until it either fails or succeeds ... one step at a time as a goal is attained.
    12 Oct 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • VW- The book has been published for a year and is very well received critically and from people who have read it. Amazon has it. If you read it, let me know if it increased your understanding of why we all act as we do.

     

    Reading it will make my comment much more clear. I didn't say he could not communicate well. I said, it is likely that it is difficult for him to ask for help. Very different things.

     

    Each of us has an Attachment Strategy (AS) that organizes all our relationship behavior. TG's AS relies on maintaining control of himself and what he is involved it...sometimes to the point of stubbornness that doesn't work for him, but sometimes does...doing what he does extremely well, and not allowing himself to feel emotionally vulnerable, among other factors.

     

    Asking for help or sometimes even recognizing the precariousness of his position, which many here have wondered about, makes him emotionally vulnerable.

     

    I've communicated with people who know him well and who have worked with him for years and they have confirmed these descriptions of him.
    12 Oct 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • ii, I have to suspect that at the time of financing NS had not yet decided to go this far on the dance floor.

     

    One fat check from NS written on blue paper will make the plumbers a footnote.

     

    As caution: we have a public declaration of affection. I'll feel really much better when we're wearing the diamond ring.
    12 Oct 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • @thotdoc:

     

    I find 'sentiment' to be a largely meaningless pseudo-metric. It cannot be accurately assessed at a sufficient level of detail to make any real difference in financial investments . . .until/unless it reaches some level of obvious absurdity and some sort of bubble clearly emerges. Sure, the media-mavens love to flap their lips about it but, in reality, they aren't saying anything that has real coherency of meaning.

     

    I seldom consider emotions in investment because, as I've learned the hard way, I can talk myself into and/or out-of nearly anything. Things I've bought/sold based on my emotions have, by and large, turned out to be costly mistakes. I focus on numbers, I focus on products I understand and I take my time getting into/out of any stock because I have a core investing strategy which says when a stock is bought, it is held for a minimum of five years.

     

    So, while I understand your point of view, I don't think we can ever fully know what sentiment is driving what action in the short-run.

     

    Like many here, I got in not because of price (although, I've already admitted that I've taken advantage of its absurd depression) but because this is technology I (can) understand and see the long-term environmental benefits. This one will help make the world cleaner, better going forward. I can't say that about EVs, at least from what I've read. I'd rather be here, waiting patiently for the world to catch-on than own an EV or invest in anyone making them.
    12 Oct 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • so what's the name of the book to which you refer?

     

    My book is the book that will be written when Axion becomes a huge success. At that point we will know what actually transpired.

     

    Or we can rely upon people who have not been publicly identified.
    12 Oct 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Hi obie,
    I have to disagree with your take on sentiment. I have followed an author on SA that bases his analysis in Elliot Wave and sentiment. Once you understand his "if this happens, that will result" analysis and that he always talks short, medium and long term (which can be confusing until you catch on) in his articles, he has proven to be fairly accurate.
    12 Oct 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm: if you broaden your definition of "sentiment" to be more than just emotions, understanding what the "sentiment" is may be quite useful for folks that have an investment horizon different than yours. It could also be useful in identifying good entry points - Buffet's "blood in the streets" scenario, e.g.

     

    Although sentiment can't be measured, some of it's effects can be measured. And that *may* prove valuable to some.

     

    Of course, your view for your strategy is perfectly valid - that's what makes a market, as they say.

     

    MHO,
    Hardtolove
    12 Oct 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Most companies tell enough of the truth about their products weaknesses to stay out of trouble with buyers. That really doesn't seem to apply to many battery manufacturers; think the problems that Boeing has had with their batteries and the manufacturer that sold the batteries to them.

     

    People on this APC probably know more about batteries than people buying batteries for Boeing, because, as you say batteries are batteries...until you begin to ask the battery to do something outside of its operating parameters.

     

    The wise man that equated battery manufacturers with snake oil salesmen proves that some truths never seem to die.
    12 Oct 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • No more Faceplants

     

    The book is for people who realize or feel they could have more from their lives, yet see repeating patterns of behavior within them selves that stymie them from achieving all their goals.
    12 Oct 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • obie-

     

    Do you start many conversations with, "Hey, I think your opinion is stupid?"

     

    Though it's pretty catchy, I wonder is it a successful way of getting people to listen to what you have to say?
    12 Oct 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Same guy is convincing me.
    12 Oct 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc, on order.

     

    Gotta admit, though. Retirement has got me in the lazy lane of thinking. :>)
    12 Oct 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • I thought I understood the product several years ago, but I was mistaken. In my thinking, the PbC battery was largely a drop-in replacement. It was different but not-that-different.

     

    But look at the behavior of the companies who are dropping the NDA curtain. NS and BMW are huge organizations with huge resources which have been or are being forced fundamentally redesign products or systems. The combined total of their Axion testing and design has got to be in excess of the market cap. The other company, ePower, had no other choice. They had to have the PbC for their application.

     

    I think sentiment is important because very few people understand most of their investments. But, If somebody took a flyer at 0.11 and got almost 100% increase at 0.20, their sentiment is going to be very greedy whether they understand the stock or not.

     

    Fleet
    13 Oct 2013, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • If I understand your comment correctly, it seems facing down survival challenges such as Exide could have reinforced personality traits which make him more reluctant to change course in the future.

     

    However, I hope, the PIPE deal was sufficiently precarious that under his own consul he is more open to different paths for more revenue such as licensing as was mentioned at the annual meeting.

     

    Weak tea, I know, but I would add Al Marshall's conversation about more sales suggests an understanding of a new strategy was needed.

     

    Fleet
    13 Oct 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • "conversation about more sales suggests an understanding of a new strategy was needed."

     

    IMO, sales and marketing changed last Summer/early Fall with sales to ePower Engines and cc disclosure of contacts with large, established truck OEMs for APUs. Those developments are a major reason I have continued to hold AXPW shares. BUT, NDA policy and marketing needs to change much more.
    13 Oct 2013, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • @ HTL (and, to some extent, StillD):

     

    Your example, to me, is more to my point than yours. 'Blood-in-the-streets' is another description of an emotional event which is, essentially, obvious to those who look at real financial metrics and divorce themselves from the emotions tempting to go with the herd.

     

    Further, everyone should develop some defined methodology for making their investment decisions -- and investment 'thesis', if you will. Many don't but it is (at least to me) part of what DD is really all about.

     

    From what little I've read about the EWT, I find it to be more gibberish than anything I want to spend that kind of time on. Having said that, I suppose one can argue that there is a difference between being aware of some level of sentiment (as expressed in blogs, media, etc.) and being DRIVEN by sentiment in making one's own financial decisions.

     

    The former, I can and have used to positive effect (the recent potash soap-opera being one, becoming an Axionista another). Ask me in five years whether I was right or wrong because only time will tell. But in both those cases, all additional due diligence was done prior to considering how much and how far I would go into each stock. And I tried to keep my own emotions out of it. The majority of that had to do with looking at financials and working through reasonable expectations based upon likely demand going forward. So, yeah, I used the sentimental absurdity to get 'in' at better prices because the fundamentals appear essentially sound.

     

    So far as I can see, 'sentiment' itself is largely another gibberish word which we commonly fling around with freedom but without taking time to really define (to ourselves as much as to whoever we're talking to) as to its meaning-in-context. To me, the word represents emotion and largely herd-following emotion when applied to the realm of investing. and that's something I don't want to be driven by nor run-over by.

     

    Now, this is strictly personal and developed out of many years of doing things the hard way. When it comes to Axion -- right now -- I don't care about the unmeasurable sentiment because it really only has one way to go. And I'm going to wait and see what happens without constantly bashing management because my tiny-little stock price didn't go into the stratosphere today.
    13 Oct 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • @thotdoc:

     

    You can, of course, feel free to make it all personal and about you. That wasn't my intention - at all - but I can't control what you think and have no interest in trying.

     

    I merely expressed an opinion that runs counter to yours. Sorry if that makes you uncomfortable.
    13 Oct 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • @VW,

     

    I'm beginning to formulate a theory that there is a valid place for your so-called 'lazy lane' . . . seems as I get older, I find too many are spending too much time trying to understand what is, essentially, the incomprehensible. In the long run, they don't really appear to do any better but the use up a lot more energy . . .
    13 Oct 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Hi obie,
    No worries, everybody has to go with what works for them. I was just pointing out what I had found about an author on SA. What ever his definition and metrics are for sentiment seem to work.
    13 Oct 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stilld ... author's name? Would like to read.
    13 Oct 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Hi DI,
    PMed with info.
    13 Oct 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think Congress shutting down the United States Government and threatening too every three months helps at all either. Who wants to make any kind of substantial financial move if your thinking everything could all come crashing down?
    16 Oct 2013, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • 0.121 seems to be the magic number today.
    10k share blocks
    11 Oct 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Not sure if this was mentioned, but a WSJ press release today too:

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1c9QT5m
    11 Oct 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Now if we could only get BMW to come out of its slumber and say something publicly.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • OMG yes. I'm literally crapping my pants with this NDA crap.
    11 Oct 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Good product, it has been tested, retested, and cross tested.
    The hard part is getting the product in the hands of the right people..
    That has been accomplished for a long while, and it still sits in their hands..

     

    Only a matter of time before success finds us..
    11 Oct 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • A couple of points:

     

    The Axion Power Concentrator is picking up more "followers" this week. A good sign.

     

    Weekly volume this week (ending Oct. 11) was a record (as far back as my charts go). Volume was nearly 7 million shares this week (6.936 million shares to be exact).

     

    With the presentations from NS/Axion next week, I suspect we'll see 10 million shares trade hands by the end of next week!
    11 Oct 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • The 10-day average volume is currently standing at 1.137 million and we've already seen 10.8 million shares move this month, an average of 1.198 million shares per day. If the volume continues to hold at these levels, the PIPErs may find themselves out of stock.
    11 Oct 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • "With the presentations from NS/Axion next week, I suspect we'll see 10 million shares trade hands by the end of next week! "

     

    I suspect your suspect is pretty safe if the ASME presentation or tour of the Juniata yard/workshop area includes disclosure that the NS999 is in operation or announcement of further PbC battery purchases by NSC.
    11 Oct 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • I guess I'm stunned. NS has never TTBOMK given such high-profile position to any of its joint venture partners. Never. As JP has noted, the size and position of the Axion logo on slide (page) 9 is extraordinary. I have eaten many rubber chickens tending to such gatherings and I assure you this is to me, unprecedented.

     

    Clearly, NS is more confident in Axion than I ever imagined. I have been content with the NS sustainability report, but this latest hand-in-hand joint presentation suggests possibilities I had not even imagined.

     

    1) NS has now publicly joined its reputation with Axion. That puts Axion up there with R.J. Corman in the friendship category. It is no guarantee of success technically, but it is a guarantee of intent.

     

    2) NS is now publicly etching lines about its patent interests. I don't know anything about patent law, but I think this is one of the steps to ensure public exposure to patented interests. Where the hell is an attorney when you need one?? JP?

     

    3) Because of the breadth of the joint presentation, I have every reason to suspect NS and Axion have already discussed different applications. More on that in a separate post.

     

    4) Every class I RR in the US (and maybe Canada) is aware of Axion. I have personally talked socially with green connected officers on every one of them. This presentation goes far, far beyond that. This is a presentation to the lunch-bunch of all mechanical engineers across all industry lines in the United States and Canada. These are the serious guys who carry pocket protectors. Years from now engineers in attendance will say in conversation, " You know, I've heard of those Axion folks. Wonder why." And weeks from now, some of them will say, "You know, this Axion outfit has something we need to look at." Guaranteed.

     

    I remain deeply and irrevocably tied to Norfolk Southern. I'm proud of that. I am honored to polish the shield.

     

    I am also thrilled to be be tied to Axion. And I suspect they'll buy me a boat.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • VW,

     

    You are very lucky to come relatively late to the Axion story. I envy those with their under 25 cents avg. pps. Thank you for your insights it does help me feel good about my average down purchases.

     

    =)
    11 Oct 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • WHYYYYYY...didn't I buy more this week!!!
    11 Oct 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • Yes VW, how a last minute press release and presentation can turn the tide right before the 10c precipice...
    12 Oct 2013, 05:04 AM Reply Like
  • I would love to say I remember who dug up the facts re: recycling. I can't. Mental confinement and restriction. Sigh.

     

    Something says it was of the ilk of iidelco or DRich type. Anyway, somebody found an NS reference over the amazing amount of lead they (NS) recycled. The question was posed, "What from?" NS has many MANY crossing signals no longer connected to the grid. Those signals have their own solar array, and battery box.

     

    I had an Eureka moment when I thought of them, and asked JP if TG would take kindly to contact. Upon that approval I sent to TG my remembrance of those crossings. It's the perfect PSOC application, and I have to believe those are the batteries supplying all the lead being recycled.

     

    Have not yet received a reply, but that as yet absent response and the joint presentation to ASME suggests to me that Vani and the appropriate NS personnel have already been exploring this area. My goodness, does NS ever use a boatload of batteries ! And many of those are PSOC applications.

     

    What is very comforting is to know that our Axion team is way way way ahead of us. Imagine. They know more about what they're doing than I do.

     

    The mind reels.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for confirming that the joint presentation was as telling as I interpret it to be. It strikes me as crazy that BMW publicly wrapped its arms around the PbC before it was a product and NS is preparing to publicly wrap its arms around an insignificant nano-cap. One embrace like that from a first tier player would be enough to send any micro-cap I've ever seen soaring. I don't think I've ever heard of a nano-cap that had two disclosed and at least two under triple secret NDA cover until you do an FOIA request for a grant application. The first FOIA drew a direct line to GM. Stefan's pending request should draw a direct line to the fourth.

     

    Interesting times.
    11 Oct 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • >Valleywood ... Just off the top of my head, Norfolk probably scraps something like 10,000 starter batteries per year just from the motive fleet just from regular maintenance. A locomotive carries from 2 to 5 of these (I figure 1 bat per unit per year) and they are not small, weighing in from 800 to 1500 lb each. That's about 6,500 tons as routine. I'm sure that NSC has other sources that need replacement yearly. I attached a link of just a generic that has the specs up front (as compared to other sales brochures)

     

    http://bit.ly/17vvX3E
    11 Oct 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    That self directer battery maker. I mentioned might be East Penn and 48 pointed out they make different sized batteries would be a possible fit here.
    11 Oct 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • >froggey77 ... There is no reason to think it is not East Penn. I don't know but I'd be very happy to have EP as a manufacturing partner and have thought that for the past 5 years. Axion is limited to, I believe, 3 form factors and EP has the where-with-all to develop different ones for other sectors ... like telecom which is where they are selling their Ultrabattery into. They are well positioned within the industry in many sectors. No other battery OEM knows Axion as well as they do.

     

    Whoever it may be, I do hope an agreement comes soon. Axion is still missing some really important pieces to fill out a complete picture of a viable company. In my book a manufacturing agreement is close to the top. The other would be Customer No. 1 and I don't know which is more important or a bigger deal.
    11 Oct 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Froggy> When somebody at the annual meeting asked Tom Granville if he could name continents of origin for the two battery manufacturers Axion was working with, Tom replied that both were multi-national, which excludes East Penn since they don't manufacture anywhere but Pennsylvania.

     

    My sense is that the two manufacturers are primarily interested in automotive, which is the market that Axion is most likely to want to farm out over tight margins and ultra-touch customer requirements.
    11 Oct 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • East Penn Canada and East Penn International don't count? ;)

     

    http://bit.ly/1agCFMx
    http://bit.ly/1agCFMz

     

    Only half serious, but maybe there is just a bit (enough anyway) of ambiguity to the term "multi-national"?
    11 Oct 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Since the question specifically asked about continents, I don't think the distinction between Canada and the US works.
    11 Oct 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • The question asked specifically about continents, but the response specifically dealt with national boundaries/concepts. It is entirely possible that TG's response was only partially responsive to the question asked.
    11 Oct 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • It's low profile, but East Penn is in China as well

     

    http://bit.ly/16WjRHe
    12 Oct 2013, 12:58 AM Reply Like
  • Agreed. I am not sure that you can split hairs that closely when listening to unprepared remarks to unexpected questions. Especially when given the prior missteps in prepared remarks.
    12 Oct 2013, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • It appears East Penn is multinational.

     

    From Festein's link
    http://bit.ly/16WjRHe
    Since those early days, East Penn has expanded tremendously. It has nearly 100 warehouses, distribution centers, and subsidiaries in the United States and Canada. The company has set up joint ventures in Austria, Brazil, India, and Mexico and established a presence in China.
    12 Oct 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • >froggey77,
    I have always thought a closer relationship with East Penn would not be as scary as some of the alternative industry sharks. Should this come to be, now or later, it would seem that East Penn might also benefit from an Asian market for a Pb-Carbon battery since they can only hawk the Ultrabattery on this side of the Atlantic.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus
    As John has said East Penn has been as good a friend to Axion, as one could reasonably hope for.
    I would be very happy if Axion returns the favor; by helping them make a pile of money.

     

    JP said East Penn didn't want to get into the thin margin business of supplying batteries to the auto companies. Perhaps they feel PbC will have enough margin that it is worth their while.

     

    Also now that we know they have a JV in Austria they have a location that would make BMW happy. And makes sense that BMW didn't introduce them to another battery maker over there.
    (This was one of those little knots in my brain that didn't make sense to me.)

     

    I realize this is all connect the dots and may be entirely false but it makes sense to me.
    13 Oct 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Hey everybody, I'm free! I'm free! Look ma, no delay!

     

    "Kid, Have you rehabilitated yourself?"

     

    Yes, sir. Yes sir I have.
    11 Oct 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • Jest remember son, we'll be keepin an eye on you so don't mess this up.
    11 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • 481086,
    Your probably as rehabilitated as Charles Manson.
    12 Oct 2013, 04:28 AM Reply Like
  • I share your joy as I have gone through the SA doghouse myself. Welcome back to unfettered communications.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Hi 86,
    Whooo eeee, free at last. You need to get out and get some sun, your looking a little pale.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • obiee, do NOT give comfort to 481 ! He was probably one of those guys who read "Superman" magazines in English class !
    12 Oct 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • VW,
    86 has more class and a better sense of humor than that. We were passing Mad magazine back and forth in class. ;-)
    12 Oct 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • 48, You and Steve McQueen look just fine.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • World's greatest card trick ever?

     

    http://bit.ly/1gy2Gxd
    11 Oct 2013, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • That was awesome!
    16 Oct 2013, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • y'all are sounding a little giddy...these are industry reports and presentations, not booked orders. It' still 36 days until November 15.
    Perhaps we've seen the bottom, and we can load up without guilt?
    I'm about to exceed my self imposed limit; I've been rubbing that lamp so hard there's hole in it, waiting for the genie to pop out.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Giddy?? You should seen it 2 years back when we bottomed in the .20s and ran to the .60s in weeks. Sadly, PIPE dynamics will make any run past 25 cents tough. But heck a double off a dime will bring smiles to many with low cost pps basis.
    11 Oct 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • I think JP has oft said that stock prices are pendulums swinging back and forth. As quiet as this company has been for the last 12 months, I say we just sit back and enjoy the ride.

     

    As far as 'loading up', I wish I had more funds available to buy more at this level. I know it's bottom-feeding and I'm sorry for that as far as the other Axionistas who have endured longer and are awaiting the long overdue pendulum swing the other direction. But I came late to the game and I have to look out for me, too. So I've put just about all that I can put into it now and will have to wait until after the first of the year to decide if I want to go even deeper.

     

    So let's just enjoy the ride, shall we?
    12 Oct 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • We Axionistas are OBVIOUSLY manic-depressive. Monday and Tuesday, the very survival of the company was being batted around...Thursday and Friday....well, EUPHORIA!! Where are those 10 cent shares when you need them???
    11 Oct 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • >raleigh731 ... I know I haven't changed my concerned optimism about the condition of Axion one little bit. Materially nothing has changed that I can tell. I'm waiting on change of trend on any, preferably all, fronts.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Funny isn't it. The countdown to November 15th is still on. I just feel like my head didn't smacked as hard this week.
    12 Oct 2013, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Be careful Stefan. Repeated blows to the head can do that...

     

    This news really needs fleshing out and a dynamic timeline.
    12 Oct 2013, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • I'm concerned about 3 things over the next couple months.
    1. Getting the pre-15 November announcement of sales revenue.
    2. Sustained earnings after that.
    3. The continued presence of the pipers.

     

    Need to check box number one first.
    12 Oct 2013, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • Every time I see "The pipers" I think of The Pied Piper of Hamelin.
    12 Oct 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • Piper Laurie?
    12 Oct 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • I think of someone 'taking a pipe'.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • My first thought is of Scottish bagpipers
    12 Oct 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Off on a cruise to the Western Mediterranean. Having never been on a cruise or to Europe, we are looking forward to it.
    I"m sure there will be a few comments to catch up on, upon my return.
    12 Oct 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, begin investigation upon your return for an 80-day trip. Not sayin'. Just sayin'.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • SWMBO has allowed that when the raised garden beds are done, I'll be almost wonderful. At least for a few days. The perennial bed is done, and the annual bed lacks only four more timbers, and none of them is full sized. I can see light ahead. Bone weary, sore muscles where no muscles should exist, and the past two days it's rained. :>) I can finish the stupid annual bed construction in one day and it's raining !

     

    Making lemonade out of this I'll work in the barn today. Already caught two mice who have moved into my mouse-proof barn. Sigh. I figger it'll take me two days to get the floor cleared. Stupid mice.

     

    481 has been released from the big house. Hide your wife and daughters and get a big bad dog. Just remember, 481, you may be out of the slammer, but you're still wearing an ankle bracelet ! Let's have no more of your tawdry behavior. My little dog is hiding in the closet and my big dog won't leave my side. 481, you beast !

     

    Raleigh is romping around in the still-warm ocean front environs of east Georgia confident in his . . . big unit. . . . and depressed because he hasn't gorged on more Axion. And bazooooooooka finally admits he's averaged down.

     

    DRich remains the steady keel here. No shock to me I prolly am fully in his camp. We seem to agree. Maybe not good news, that. >:)
    12 Oct 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • >Valleywood ... I'm more than a little interested in reading that presentation paper.
    12 Oct 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • I would also like to see the formal paper if you can lay your hands on a bootleg copy from one of the conference participants.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, JP if I stumble across a copy will do.

     

    Have absolutely no contacts there any more. I truly enjoy being retired and for obvious reasons avoid overt interest.

     

    The really interesting thing here is going to be the Q&A. You know how that goes: presentations are cool but the really groovy stuff unfolds in Q&A.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Won't someone ... like Axion, FRA, FDOT? ... maybe publish this presentation paper at some time after the event?
    12 Oct 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Drich -

     

    There are FRA contacts on the conference website that are responsible for this section.
    12 Oct 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • The conference proceedings are not available on the ASME website, yet, but when they are, you may purchase a pdf copy on-line for $25.
    12 Oct 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • >Dirtdauber ... That might be $25 bucks I would be willing to spend but I really don't like the idea of paying for information revealed at a government funded event on a project that, probably, was government subsidized.

     

    Before I get the "Norfolk spent their own money on it" dress-down, I'd venture a guess (and no knowledge of the tax law) that NSC writes off a large chunk of their R&D expense for tax purposes. If that is true then we the people have an interest in the project and should, in my feeble minded way, think the information that was publicly disclosed in such a forum should be publicly available at some point in time.
    12 Oct 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • I bought Axion because I believe in the technology. It's going to sell. Sooner or later it will sell because it's good to a multiple. That however does not ensure Axion or we will be the ultimate holders. From my very first purchase going on three years ago now I have limited my investment and my exuberance. This is NOT a slam-dunk investment and I remain fully aware that if this were a no-brainer I could not afford to buy it.

     

    DRich is absolutely correct. Nothing substantive has changed. I am anxious for an announcement. I anticipate an announcement. But I remain aware that I was confident we would hear of an NS purchase last month. So much for my predictive skill. Nothing has yet changed. The paint is not yet dry.

     

    Further and specifically, I will not be surprised if there is no announcement before the next cc. Stuff happens. And no matter how much I choose to believe it, nothing changes until something changes. So far, nothing has changed and VW Law #1 remains intact : Change always takes longer than we are certain it will, and "This Time" is never different.

     

    So ends my cautionary disclaimer caveats.

     

    Short term events easily distort judgement. Long-term conditions however ultimately carry the day. When I look at today compared to 12 October of last year I am amazed at the change in landscape.

     

    Last year we had a fortune 500 leader verifying their interest in our battery to the point of investing in extensive testing. This year, the same folks have named us partner, and are jointly with us and only with us, presenting to a national organization of people who are inclined to understand this sort of thing and what we are about.

     

    Last year we carried around plastic jack'o'lanterns of speculation door-to-door regarding what our technology could do for truckers. This year we have a fearless company actually buying our batteries and making them work over the road. And bragging about our product!

     

    Last year we smoked mackerel while we hoped we were working on a joint auto application. This year we have confirmation of multiple auto company interest and battery manufacturing partner negotiations.

     

    Last year, trade associations to which we were members couldn't spell our name. This year they ask us to help them make presentations.

     

    Last year the press ignored us as part of the yesteryear gang of lead. This year, as the failures of Li continue to mount and reports of our success continue to stack up, even the WSJ has discovered New Castle is not the name of a new McMansion.

     

    Axion remains an ultra-high-risk investment. We as yet have not moved the needle. Any of us blabbermouths or lurkers who buy shares in Axion must understand how treacherous the landscape is all around us. We could be holding a cup of ashes any day now.

     

    But I choose to invest. Nibble. Nibble. No big bites. Nibble. 'Cause if I'm right I can get the Five Guys burger and a large order of fries.

     

    Now, if it's all the same to you guys I'll resume this ridiculous game of speculation I love to play. :>)
    12 Oct 2013, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • VW: " Change always takes longer than we are certain it will, and "This Time" is never different".

     

    A corollary? "Except when we expect no change, then it is most likely and is this time different".

     

    For me, the announcement of the joint presentation was unanticipated. This was really different. Observational confirmation that the corollary may be true.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • VW,

     

    Always appreciate your writings and this post is a very nice 'reality check'. I especially like the way you circumscribe your summary of positive changes of the past year with numerous caveats of caution. IMO exuberance is better when not proceeded by the word irrational and you clearly accomplish that in this post.

     

    Many thanks,

     

    geopark
    12 Oct 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, I'm not suggesting things are immovable. I'm merely suggesting that nothing happens until it happens.

     

    Nick Saban was at LSU and had won a national championship. In press conferences he was adamant he would never leave.

     

    He left for the NFL in 2004. Said he would never leave.

     

    Became head coach at Alabama. Won 2 National Championships. Alabama is today ranked #1. Saban is now looking to 3-peat. Rumor has it University of Texas is interested. He is adamant he will never leave Alabama.

     

    Unless of course he leaves.

     

    'til then he's still HFC in Tuscaloosa. :>)

     

    So far? No announcement. I'm sure there will be, but missing the deadline we've decided upon would not surprise me. Things just seem to take forever. Santa never arrives.

     

    Until he does.
    12 Oct 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • VW: " I'm not suggesting things are immovable. I'm merely suggesting that nothing happens until it happens". I knew that. I just was attracted by the infinite loop set up if rule # 1 applies and the corollary kicks in.

     

    Awareness of both the rule and the corollary would leave one in a perpetual state of uncertainty.

     

    Sounds awfully familiar, doesn't it? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    12 Oct 2013, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, you nailed it dead on. BINGO !

     

    You and I at least see ourselves being tormented by the harpies. We can't eat the feast because of the bleeping harpies.

     

    Jason will show up with his Argonauts any day now.

     

    He will show up, right?

     

    Huh?

     

    Please say I'm right.

     

    Is that tiny speck Jason coming now? ? ?
    12 Oct 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • "Going on three years ago" is a longer time investment than I had supposed for you, VW. Everybody hopes you can land that fishing boat you are seeking.

     

    Fleet
    13 Oct 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Fleet !

     

    I'm confident it'll work out. The great irony is that when that ship comes in I'll probably just give the money to Heifer International or something like it.

     

    Still, it's fun to think about, yes?
    13 Oct 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • VW,
    "we smoked mackerel while we hoped we were working on a joint"
    In some states you can smoke the joint and eat the fish.

     

    I've been nibbling for 4 years now. It looks like a value trap, but I still feel the greed.
    13 Oct 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • JP, as I recall the question raised at the AM went WTTE, " Can you tell us who the automotive battery companies are we are in negotiations with?" TG then made his "international" response.

     

    I think TG is much more canny than he pretends. His response in no way precluded partnership for other purposes.

     

    I seem to recall that recently East Penn just got zoning approval for their expansion of the Reading facility. Large expansion seems to me.

     

    1 + 1 = ????

     

    or not, of course. :>)
    12 Oct 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Axion's working relationship with East Penn predates the alliance agreement I wrote in the spring of 2004. Over the years they've been the business equivalent of an adult brother to a young child. Sometimes they were too busy to fool with Axion and at other times they stepped up with equipment hand-me-downs, sage advice, technical support and eventually a toll manufacturing contract that gave Axion the hands-on opportunity to learn how to manufacture quality products at an acceptable price. They've always been demanding but they've always been fair.

     

    While everybody else views East Penn as a potential partner or competitor, I've come to view them as family and I think TG feels the same way. Hells bells, East Penn currently accounts for over 80% of Axion's revenue. That reliance will fade as PbC customers step up to the plate, but for now life would be really miserable without big brother.

     

    East Penn has already earned their place at the table and there will be a partnership when the time is right.
    12 Oct 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • VW,
    My question about whether the battery companies are on different continents was intended as a back door to getting a hint as to whether the second company might be a supplier for a US or Asian auto OEM. I felt I had a better chance of getting an answer to that one than if I asked the real question directly. Not unexpectedly, he gave an oblique answer to the direct question about more than one continent, and then he tossed out a totally unexpected tidbit, the comment about the second manufacturer's interest being internally generated.

     

    So, is there a 2nd auto OEM looking for a second supplier in the background? Don't know, maybe, but probably not? But, an international battery manufacturer wants to be one of, if not the, first to be authorized to manufacture our batteries. Now, it seems to me, we have a battery industry endorsement of the PbC.

     

    12 Oct 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • >Dirtdauber ... " ... we have a battery industry endorsement of the PbC." Not until the ink dries.
    12 Oct 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Just a thought.

     

    For the self motivated battery maker.

     

    Is there an Automotive OEM who makes their own batteries?
    12 Oct 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey, Not in the LAB space any more that I know of.
    -
    Been away for a few days and trying to catch up.

     

    Jeeze, Are we there yet?
    14 Oct 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • " Hey, guys ! Hey, do you guys mind if we set up a graphite process line in your parking lot?"

     

    "Oh yeah, we know we're not in negotiations. And even if we were, we're nowhere close to inking a deal. We just wanna see if we can do it, don'tchaknow. Just to make an announcement. Make the troops feel better and all."

     

    "Okay, thanks, folks! Now we've proven we can assemble a working line at a remote location. We're gonna take our stuff home now. Don't worry. We'll clean up when we leave. You won't even know we were here."

     

    All of that makes perfect sense to me. Doesn't even make me raise an eyebrow. I'm comfortable nothing else was afoot. Sure as my handle is VW.

     

    All there was to it.
    12 Oct 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • >Valleywood ... Kind of like in the old days the vacuum cleaner sales man went house to house doing demonstrations? I had a friend that did this with something called the "RexAir Rainbow". One heck of a machine but only sold 1 in 20 demonstrations ... if that. The sale wasn't complete until the ink dried no matter how well the demonstration was received. He didn't last very long in that pursuit. He found selling tractors & implements more rewarding.
    12 Oct 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • And now ... something completely different.

     

    Fisker Motors may not be as dead as one might think. The pieces might become more valuable than the whole.

     

    "Fisker’s assets are more likely to be parsed and dispersed into future electric—and traditional—cars, Baum says. The exceptional design could be condensed to fit a better performing car, or the car’s electronic controls, like those driving the power train, could be adopted in other models. “Some of the componentry might be somewhat unusual and groundbreaking, and that might find it’s way into something else. You wouldn’t necessarily know it,” Baum says."
    [ Business Time; 11Oct2013]

     

    http://ti.me/1eglJtB
    12 Oct 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • So, DRich, riddle me this:

     

    At what point will you throw over the prickly dumpster creature? Is it a pps hurdle? Do we have to be profitable?

     

    I miss your eagle. :>)
    12 Oct 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • VW, Riddle me this. lol

     

    Holy locomolly batman!
    14 Oct 2013, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Both hands on the batrope, Robin...
    16 Oct 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • eBay find: Battery-powered Batpod is ready for battle.

     

    " Thinking of taking up a crime fighting career in your local metro area? We have a lead on the vehicle you need – an electric, shotgun-shooting, flame-throwing, Batpod now available on eBay! You're welcome."

     

    http://aol.it/19RsQty

     

    Disclaimer: Limited lifetime warranty. Batteries not covered!
    16 Oct 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Just my speculation, but guessing that watching the ebay bidding on the Batpod will probably be even less exciting than watching our own paint dry.
    16 Oct 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: Well, what they didn't tell you was that the product was mislabeled, you see.

     

    It was really bat guano.

     

    Which explains a lot.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Oct 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Hey, The Batpod has some good points. It's recyclable just like bat guano.
    16 Oct 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe it was supposed to be batpot to receive bat guano?

     

    HardToLove
    16 Oct 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Renault might think about adding a flamethrower and shotguns to the Twizy to save it from extinction.
    16 Oct 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Hey, they tried the same campaign as Yugo did in the US when they wouldn't sell. Buy a motor home and get a POS to haul around on your journeys.

     

    "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with BS"

     

    W.C. Fields

     

    (BS used to stay out of detention)

     

    http://bit.ly/17tQ7Mg
    16 Oct 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Very cool, but I want it with the original Harley V-rod engine!

     

    The V-Rod is Harley-Davidson's best product ever, in terms of modern engine technology married to the Harley mystique in an elegant and comfortable package.

     

    I might even dare to ride it into Manhattan. Flamethrowers would come in very handy for the insolent pedestrians of NYC! ;-)
    16 Oct 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin,
    and to think you would only have to pay half as much for the original. Not to mention gaining more than a 40 mile range. Just need some black spray paint. Hard to see where the value added is on this product.
    16 Oct 2013, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Random search brought up this thesis on the old NS 999 -

     

    BATTERY VOLTAGE AND CURRENT ANALYSIS FOR NORFOLK SOUTHERN YARD SWITCHER LOCOMOTIVE

     

    http://tinyurl.com/kmw...
    12 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • SM
    Great finding. It will be great if we can see a more current thesis.
    12 Oct 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Thank you. That's quite a thesis for a BS degree.
    12 Oct 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Hi SM,
    Wow, what a find. I am assuming he had to take all the raw data, organize it, convert it to be useable in Excel, create the Excel macros with all the formulaes, prove its values and then write his thesis for a BS degree? Makes my head hurt, he deserves more than a BS degree.
    12 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, responding to myself:

     

    I have three half-gallon glass containers. Each spring I go buy several boxes of Lipton iced tea gallon sized bags. Put two of those bags in a glass container and place it in the fridge. When a container is gone, I fill another and put the old one in the dishwasher. Rotate as necessary.

     

    At the end of every season (like now) I seemingly have an obscene number of teabags to throw away. This year (this afternoon in fact) I have made my last ( LAST ) half gallon of tea. I used the last two teabags I have ! For the first time in almost fifty years it's worked out perfectly !

     

    It's an omen, I tell ye. An omen.

     

    Bring back Eddie the Eagle!
    12 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • >Valleywood .... I do owe you an apology. I didn't mean to leave you in the lurch or push you to the edge of madness by having to answer your own question. There exists therapy, if not cures, for that but being an enthusiastic Axion investor it is completely understandable. I think we all have massive holes in our information that are best filled by fanciful self rationalization.

     

    I'm, on SA, all about trains, with trucks, grid & marine in descending order of interest, when it comes to Axion. I've been a follower of this technology since I first read about it back in 1991(?). I "knew" then this was going to be big ... if it could ever be built & worked as advertised. I almost got caught up in that Mega-C thing but could never figure out if it was the same device or a scam. I lost track of the technology for about 6 years except for the odd Russian publication. Then I naively jumped into the stock of Axion back when I felt confident that Axion had had that eureka moment in 2007 and got (and continue to get) a real education in "paint drying" tolerance & technique. I really want & expect to find out if my guess that this time battery power will be successful in the railroad industry. Fourth time (or fifth depending on how you count previous efforts) is the the charm.

     

    Beyond that ... yeah, sure, I want this effort to turn profitable but presently it is not about pps. It's about SEEING the damn thing work or fail. The prickly dumpster creature came to be back in August when I was informed of some things that I found very depressing about pieces of my thesis & its implemetation. All rumor, speculation, subject to change and not worthy of discussion on this board.

     

    The prickly dumpster creature is of no meaning or of real importance to this forum. More just a fatigue or maybe inhalation poisoning from paint fumes. The Eagle will return when things show signs of life and it can hunt again. 'Til then I'm hanging out where the food can be found.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • One of your great charms DR is that you can be prickly without being a ...

     

    I just wish some of the musketeers would learn how to disagree without being so darned disagreeable.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I also owe "Tim Enright" an explanation about one of my previous comments but I just don't feel comfortable going into particulars about what has come to pass and what might or might not. I do try to keep speculation factually based and get really bored covering old ground. But stand guilty none the less.

     

    Soooo, Tim, if you read my previous post, it will just have to do.
    14 Oct 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • >DRich ... Already there, we are good...
    14 Oct 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • This might be a small point, but do others think that the timing of the Axion press release on the NS presentation indicates that Norfolk Southern, after previously prohibiting Axion from announcing the presentation relented when told the stock price was getting near the danger zone?
    13 Oct 2013, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • APM, that was the first thing I thought of......the very day the pps hits .10 they release this.

     

    Seems like once before they gave them an order, which they were not ready to take delivery on for some time, that helped with a stock issue soon after.

     

    So yes, I think it was timed for this. But it's very good to see NSC begin to talk about the 999 and it might be actually seen now.

     

    OR, any company that AXPW is working with could either make them a loan or place an order for "x" number of batteries to help them get financing. Up till now, it appears they have not been far enough along to do this.

     

    The positive is that NS obviously wants AXPW to make it. Otherwise they would not give them such a presence as a partner. VW did an excellent job of pointing this out.
    13 Oct 2013, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • APM: As much as I'd like to think so ...

     

    *if*, as some have suggested, TG wouldn't approach a customer for an investment or loan or ... This suggests some pride issues. And Thotdoc has mentioned some other issues, like control.

     

    If any of that is correct, I can't imagine him asking for some help in the PR area to save pps from the results of a mistake, IMO, TG made in the financing.

     

    Maybe it's just me, but I prefer to think that (NSC) is just progressing at it's own pace, as has been suggested before, and this was a fortuitous timing is all.

     

    And don't forget it's below $0.10, right? And it's VWAP, not open, close, high or low. I forget ATM if it's just one day or x days in the measurement periods.

     

    Anyway, adding TG's background as a negotiator to the thoughts, having to ask for help now could weaken future negotiating positions, so that's another reason I don't think he would do it.

     

    And I personally think it would be a mistake to do it. Remember, it's *we* who suffer the consequences of this financing ATM, *not* the company ... at least not yet.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Oct 2013, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, remember that TG himself stated that some "customers" were concerned about their financial status was one reason he did the PIPE>
    It was mostly thought here that was BMW, and it could have been NS and others too.

     

    So there was discussion with clients about their financial status.
    and if you look at when some of those papers were started in the spring it is perfect timing with the PIPE. Too much coincidence.?
    13 Oct 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • I was thinking it was more along the lines of some of the perspective PowerCube customers who were looking to place orders this year (very near term customers/sales).
    13 Oct 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Al, I don't think timing of the press release was related in any way to Axion's share price. As reported here by someone yesterday, the conference presentation has been a work in progress for several months and is scheduled for delivery this coming week. Once conference organizers published the conference calender and presenters, the info was in public domain. TG & co. took advantage of the PR opportunity.
    13 Oct 2013, 09:42 AM Reply