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  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Hey, I think I made first, for the first time.
    14 Oct 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Congrats, ABM.

     

    I keep thinking over the concept that Axion can switch to paying cash for convertible note payments...

     

    Has anyone really run those numbers down to see how much cash they would need to pay for those payments and interest, plus operating costs? They don't seem to make sense for me, but I am not a CPA.
    14 Oct 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't believe Axion has the right to make installment payments in cash. The critical section of the contract says:

     

    "On each applicable Installment Date, the Company shall pay to the Holder of this Note the applicable Installment Amount due on such date by converting such Installment Amount in accordance with this Section 8 (a “Company Conversion”); provided further that the Company shall not be entitled to effect a Company Conversion with respect to any portion of such Installment Amount and shall be required to pay the entire amount of such Installment Amount in cash (a “Company Redemption”) if on the applicable Installment Notice Due Date or on the applicable Installment Date (as the case may be) there is an Equity Conditions Failure, except that a Company Conversion may still occur on the applicable Installment Date in accordance with Section 8(b) with the written consent of the Holder."

     

    The way I read the contract, Axion has to pay the installments with stock unless there's an Equity Condition Failure. This is one of those times I'd love to be wrong, but the contract language seems pretty clear to me.
    14 Oct 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    He-he. CANT playing games? Friday they were one of the agrresive sellers for a good portion of the day. So at 7:28 today tehy enter ad 400K bid @ $0.11 with an ask of $0.373x2.5K.

     

    They know the $0.373 is farcical. So after selling hard Friday, what are they doing with 400K at $0.11? Is it an "all or none", unlikely to get filled? Are they taking advatage forcing ATDF, and others to enter a higher bid so their sell-side can hit those bids and dump a load that CANT doesn't want?

     

    Maybe the 400K is a WSJ reader?

     

    Oh well, enjoy whatever today does bring.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Hah! 7 minutes later the CANT bid size drops to 5K.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (700) | Send Message
     
    New Week, New Hope
    14 Oct 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    HTL, it's probably that barracuda WIO. He's trying to over-bid me. :>)

     

    You have noticed the time of his post this morning? He's in Oregon.

     

    I understand predators of the world get up early.
    14 Oct 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (485) | Send Message
     
    still dark here in Oregon...perhaps he hunts with his nose?
    14 Oct 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3308) | Send Message
     
    APH, the link at the top to John's article links back to one from June 2011. Is that intended?
    14 Oct 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OOPS! Took the link from a comment and plugged it in.

     

    Will remove post haste.

     

    Thanks!
    14 Oct 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't know why you decided to remove the link HTL. The article may be an oldie but it's still a goodie. Over the last two years I've only written two articles on the hybrid rail application because the first one drew a fairly hostile response from NS. They apparently called TG on the carpet for talking out of school and I had to forward my research archive to show that I not only did my own research, but I sourced my facts from their documents.

     

    The first article that caused the kerfuffle in June 2011 is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    A follow up article from April 2012 is here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    After the first article I tried to get an interview with Mr. Thelen and was politely told that they didn't want to talk to anybody until the NS 999 was back on the road and performing like they wanted it to. The sub-text was that the first attempt was a public embarrassment and they weren't going to endure a second embarrassment because somebody said too much too soon.
    14 Oct 2013, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    APH
    I'll vote with JP on this one. Carlos supplied the link on the previous concentrator and I have re-read the article and am halfway through the comments.

     

    I'd add the link to the second article as well.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
     
    Interesting this week where the price may settle
    14 Oct 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    Toyota sees bright future for hydrogen fuel cell technology
    Toyota (TM) forecasts that the cost of hydrogen fuel cells will fall dramatically by 2020 to allow the company to sell mass market vehicles powered by the technology between $50K and $100K.The automaker will unveil a prototype model at the Tokyo Motor Show next month.
    14 Oct 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    I've always believed that its possible to build H powered cars for big money (Honda has been leasing $300k+ cars in Cali for years), and that the price would slowly ease down over time...

     

    But the problem I see is still with producing relevant (good term that, JP, and you use it well) scale of both the vehicles (which use some pretty exotic material science) and particularly the fuel. Like EV's waiting for a long list of necessary breakthroughs in battery technology to occur to make them "real" (and then we still have to work through the power grid issues), H cars have a fuel which is most commonly made from a combination of copious amounts of fossil fuels and electric power (itself largely generated by the same fossil fuels).

     

    From the DOE: "Steam methane reforming accounts for 95 percent of the hydrogen produced in the United States. This is a catalytic process that involves reacting natural gas or other light hydrocarbons with steam to produce a mixture of hydrogen and carbon dioxide. The mixture is then separated to produce high-purity hydrogen…."

     

    Copious amounts of CO2 are produced as a waste product, of course.

     

    Utilizing electrolysis (which is a very old and established method of producing H) can also work, but once again you are looking at copious (actually, in comparison to the energy content of the resulting H, enormous and wasteful) amounts of electricity. In a fantasy world awash with an overabundance of generating capacity from sources like nuclear power (solar is often mentioned, but the numbers simply don't add up once you begin to scale up the process to actually comprise a fossil fuel replacement), the case for H as the world's answer to oil might be possible...

     

    So, I see Toyota's announcement as carving out still another tiny niche (and the PR highground for the moment) like Tesla. Yes, the Japanese just did a "Musk".
    14 Oct 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    A while back, one of the Axionistas sent me a link to a recent presentation on Volkswagens Integrated Fuel and Powertrain Strategy.

     

    http://bit.ly/XV2Oyt

     

    If you go to Page 15 of the presentation you'll find one of the most horrifying presentations imaginable. They put manufacturing phase emissions and use phase emissions for a variety of vehicle classes on the same graph.

     

    Fuel cell vehicles have the worst profile imaginable.

     

    My other observations on the graph and its implications will be published when the upcoming issue of Batteries International Magazine is released.
    14 Oct 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • clydedoggie
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    Not quite the whole truth, John. True, the Fuel Cell profile for a fuel cell using H2 from Electrolysis had the worst profile, but the fuel cell using H2 from Nat Gas actually had the lowest Wheel to Well score for all the hydrocarbon options. The CO2 produced by the fuel cell manufacturing is the big player in the bad scores. I'm not sure what in the process of manufacturing the fuel cell causes this gross discharge but I would have to guess it has to do with the platinum used in the fuel cell. In the last five years the amount of platinum used in the fuel cells has been decreased by an order of magnitude, to where it is just slightly more than what is found in the catalytic converter of an ICE vehicle, so I would bet if this graph were updated to use 2013 data the picture would be much different.
    16 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The only score that matters is lifecycle emissions – manufacturing and use. Using that metric, fuel cells using hydrogen from natural gas are still filthy.

     

    The graph was from a December 2012 presentation, so I doubt that there's much basis for assuming the data is out of date.

     

    Fuel cells are little more than politically motivated panacea cures that don't really change anything. The Bloom Box has recently been revealed as a dirty little scam in Delaware. Other half-truths will be revealed in time.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aq6ES4
    16 Oct 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7426) | Send Message
     
    Interesting presentation. You seem to give credence to it's conclusions so I'll assume you'll agree that the obvious cleanest solution going forward will be EV's charged with renewable energy.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The virtue of renewable energy is in the creation of clean electrons.

     

    Once they exist they will make something cleaner, but it doesn't matter whether that something is an EV or a toaster oven.

     

    There is no rational connection between a particular creator of electrons and a particular user of electrons. Pretending otherwise is sophistry.
    17 Oct 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • JRP3
    , contributor
    Comments (7426) | Send Message
     
    As is pretending that EV's charged from renewables, as shown in that presentation, and as people are already doing each day, doesn't make them cleaner. As the Great One said, don't skate to where the puck is, skate to where it will be.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (817) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking back on apmarshall's excellent notes from the annual meeting and I conclude that the most significant topic he reported on was a statement from TG to the effect that they do not anticipate needing financing in 2014 unless it is for expanding manufacturing capacity.

     

    This strikes me as HUGE and would make this a no-brainer investment if we could put any confidence in that statement. It implies sustained sales that get them close to being profitable. Did anyone else hear such a comment from TG, or was this private discussion with APM? How much faith can we put into this becoming reality?
    14 Oct 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    ngs ... nothing new here. heard it before. move along.
    14 Oct 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I heard the remark, but interpreted it as saying that Axion would be seeking expansion capital before survival capital became an issue. While it might be possible to ramp sales rapidly enough to get Axion into a cash-flow neutral position by this time next year, I have a hard time imagining how it could be cash flow positive by then.
    14 Oct 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    They don't need to be cash flow neutral, but be close enough to get through the year. Cash lasts a longer at a smaller burn rate. The circumstances can change so fast (up or down) for a company in this state of development, 1 year is a stretch for predicting sales and revenue.
    14 Oct 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I agree wholeheartedly, which is why I try to keep my short-term revenue expectations muted.
    14 Oct 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    ngs, I think I understand what you're suggesting, and I have the notion that I heard the same remark as apm. My memory is terribly unreliable however and I remain very cautious.

     

    Stuff happens. And although I trust TG had full faith and confidence in his remark, we've had such a long run of bad luck in so many areas that I will be much more confident when the story unfolds as we believe it will. I am even prepared to consider that our hoped-for announcement will not be made in time for the cc. Things just take so long sometimes.

     

    'til then I view things as spooky. I'm confident in TG and believe he is correct. I'm more confident in concrete. :>)
    14 Oct 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    I seem to recall TG said much the same thing before the PIPE.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    ngs: My recollection was that Mr. Granville made his remark during the Q&A part of the meeting. My interpretation of what he said was that the company will get to break-even before it runs out of cash unless it has to use that cash to expand capacity (ie a high quality problem).

     

    I agree with you that it was the single most important point to come out of that meeting. In the discussion after my notes were published, I wrote something to the effect that if you have confidence in TG then it is a fantastic time to buy the stock.

     

    My hesitation is that I'm certain that Mr. Granville didn't expect the stock to "break". So far Mr. Granville has been correct. However, he sure seems to have a flair for the dramatic. Also, by his own admission things have taken longer to develop than he ever expected. So, these are all positive developments and I for one am buying more stock, but Axion isn't out of the woods yet.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1421) | Send Message
     
    Well put that we're not "out of the woods" yet on financing. I didn't hear the comment or its context, but to say for certain that breakeven will come before the cash runs low strikes me as a bad prediction. What if the stock stays broken so that the 6 installments going forward all have to be paid in cash rather than stock? That, plus 6 $250k penalties, would probably cause a liquidity crisis unless sales are already ramping rapidly that we aren't aware of.
    14 Oct 2013, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I while back you published: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    It seems the action in AXPW is not isolated. I saw lost of buying across the energy-storage and renewable energy producer space last week, particularly around 10:00 AM Friday.
    14 Oct 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's too early to say for sure, but it looks like the sector may be coming back into favor as several stocks including ALTI, CBAK, ENS, HPJ, KNDI and UQM have had nice bounces of late.
    14 Oct 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Using the (XLE) as a proxy, it's been on a steady tear with nice steady wave patterns for the last year.

     

    W/o going in-depth, ATM it's looking like it's hitting at least a short-term consolidation point before deciding next move.

     

    Anyway, low of XLE on 12/31 was $69.57 and recent high was $85.68 9/18, so consolidation seems like its needed. It looks like it's trying to form a symmetrical triangle pattern, which will have an upward break out 54% of the time - that's pretty close to random.

     

    So I wouldn't want to guess on which way we are going from here.

     

    On (UQM), $1.45, $1.55 were a couple points I picked a while back to watch. It got the first and I believe will go at least to the second.

     

    If we factor in that Oct. is one of the poorer performing months in the market, generally, I think we could see some drop as we add in the dysfunctional government situation.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    John,
    I'd really like to know what some investor(s) "think" they know about ALTI right now? It went from a stock that was trading around $2.30/share (after numerouse reverse splits), on very low volume, to a stock that is suddenly trading over $7/share on high volume. The only "news" that has been released is that they have a new CFO. Just doesn't add up.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    I am nonplussed by their abrupt stock price surge on no news...

     

    And its continuing at high levels is also puzzling.

     

    The CFO appointment is not the trigger, imo.

     

    It has leased property in China and is moving lock, stock and barrel to China (which is not something which makes it more valuable or more investable for me).

     

    I wouldn't touch it. As for who IS buying it and pushing it up, I wonder if Chinese partners of some kind are doing this...

     

    There is always the chance of insider data leaking (or a faux leak, which is even scarier) about some huge new customer, perhaps in some field where the titanate LI battery chemistry would be a good idea (assuming they can get the price to match the slot, of course).

     

    Puzzling, and I don't invest in stocks that puzzle me.

     

    (And before anyone goes there, I am NOT puzzled by Axion, but I am sometimes baffled by its management).
    14 Oct 2013, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Color me equally mystified. Their book value is about $2.66 per share and the stock was trading at book a couple weeks ago, but I have no idea what could have precipitated the change. Sometimes small stocks do that when they've been beaten down too far for too long.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I wish your "sometimes" was more the rule than the exception. I have a candidate for where to apply "sometimes".
    14 Oct 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if one of the penny-stock pump rags did something on ALTI. Might explain it?

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Well John if you're mystified by ALTI you sure as heck must be equally mystified by CBAK. A company that changes CFO's like socks, can't put 2 meaningful quarters together that show the direction the company might be going in regarding sector sales and one who builds scrap like it has more value than the raw material that goes into it.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... That is just plain funny !!!! Probably just plain true as well.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, RE: "BMW has invested in company's before: http://cnnmon.ie/MbmaJ0"
    .........................

     

    Thanks for posting this link. Here's a short 2-minute video on BMW's joint venture with SGL, the small start up company you referenced, which produces carbon fibers. It reflects BMW's willingness to collaborate with small companies they deem vital to their future production plans.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cOHXFb
    14 Oct 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    " It reflects BMW's willingness to collaborate with small companies they deem vital to their future production plans."

     

    Pretty much says something about small companies they have not invested in.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    RE: "Pretty much says something about small companies they have not invested in."

     

    Hmmm, hadn't thought about it that way. Perhaps when the time is right, for them? Also, kind of feels like comparing apples and oranges.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    BMW owns 49% of SGL Automotive Carbon Fibers and the contracts require unanimity on all major corporate decisions.

     

    http://bit.ly/192Qss7

     

    The relationship might well work for a company like SGL that can live forever from the business of one automaker. It wouldn't work at all with a technology like Axion's that deserves to be made available to the whole world.

     

    It takes us back to the question of whether it's better to dance with a demon for dollars or sell your soul to the devil for a few dollars more.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    I think it's harder for them to see AXPW as that critical when their high-end stuff would let them use Li chemistries, maybe, and/or they figure they've limped this long with traditional LA and they can limp even longer?

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    From the video site:

     

    The Joint Venture is a classic win-win situation.
    BMW Group acquires carbon fiber technology.
    SGL Group gains access into the automotive market.

     

    Distribution of shares: BMW Group: 49 %; SGL Group: 51 %.
    Major corporate decisions require shareholder unanimity.

     

    AXPW???
    14 Oct 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    FYI, SGL employees around 6,500 people globally, and annual EBIT over $300m.
    14 Oct 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    Good reason to invest some money.
    14 Oct 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    If the PIPErs are trying to beat down the price, they aren't doing a very good job lately.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    You can only keep the pps of a fundamentally strong company down for so long before it rises. The PIPRs have a lot of power, but they too can be overwhelmed by positive developments. --- It's not as if we're dealing with an ultra-high-risk company/stock or anything like that, right? :-)
    .........................

     

    BTW, regarding the joint venture between SGL and BMW in the video above, BMW invested $100M in their manufacturing facility. Seems like that kind of commitment could bode well for Axion going forward.
    14 Oct 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    somehow I feel that the price is going where they (the pipers) want it to go.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    If Axion got a partner like BMW it might very well have to kiss goodbye to:

     

    1. Relationships with all other automakers;
    2. Relationships with all railroads;
    3. Relationships with all stationary developers; and
    4. Relationships in trucking.

     

    After all, the last thing a company like BMW would want is divided loyalties.

     

    Once you sell your soul to a leader in one industry your destiny is in their hands, not your own.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Metro: Yep. From what I can tell, the price stabilizes or even rises a bit for a little while after each issue date.

     

    I guess that's to rake as much profit as possible from what's in hand and leave enough in hand to push price lower after.

     

    It's not precise by any means, but that's what I *think* I see on my charts.

     

    Good PR is just a gift to them I guess.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    When is the next issue date?
    14 Oct 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    BMW is involved in stationary?
    14 Oct 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: I think it's around th 4th or 6th or each month? JP might know better. We should have had one just last week.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The installments are due on the 1st of every month beginning in September. The hook is that 21 TRADING DAYS before an installment due date, the company has to issue "Pre-installment Conversion Shares" for the anticipated payment. Then, on the actual installment date, it has to issue true up shares if there's a difference between the pre-installment number and the actual installment number.

     

    For September, the pre-installment shares were due on August 2nd.

     

    For October, the pre-installment shares were due on August 29th.

     

    For November, the pre-installment shares were due on October 3rd.

     

    For December, the pre-installment shares will be due on October 30th.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    My plan to drink a bottle of nice champagne at different Axion milestones has been shelved in favor of drinking a nice bottle as often as possible.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >metro ... A good plan. But it might help even more to drink something with more of an edge (my favorite is Glenlivet) between champagne days?
    14 Oct 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    On the day price flirtis with .10 it is straight to the Becherovka.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1548) | Send Message
     
    highland single malt?? . . . . c'mon, DR, go for the gusto . . . 25 year old Laphroaig . . . .

     

    (taken internally, as often as needed)
    14 Oct 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: Thanks! If we allow a few days for the backroom processing you previously posited, it looks like there's pretty good correlation with price action then? Would push selling into early in the month?

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Tesla is showing off the new model X in California. Maybe I can't perceive scale from the pictures and video, but this looks more like the size of a PriusV or Ford C-max than it does a true SUV to me? Is Tesla just assuming that if they call it an SUV the people who buy it won't actually need it to carry anything in it? Call me a skeptic, but the fact that Toyota can barely sell any Highlander EVs in California, suggests to me that the market just isn't there.

     

    http://bit.ly/192MQGM
    14 Oct 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's apparently being built on the same chassis as the Model S, which makes it more of a mid-size car than a compact. I do find it curious that they've only booked 6,000 reservations after flogging the car for over a year.
    14 Oct 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    " "I was driving a 2000 Chevy Astro. But I drove the Tesla and I fell in love with it." "

     

    Translation; I was driving a work van on a 30+ year old platform that GM called a mini van when Chrysler invented the category and this new 70K+ USD vehicle just blew me away! Jeeze.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    LOL, I remember driving an older Mustang GT on a beautiful (but very curvy) mountain road when a brand new Porsche Turbo blew past on the Dragon's Tail and passed me. I had some fun and kept him within sight for a while, and pulled up on his tail a few times in the really twisty bits, but he definitely pulled ahead toward the end of the scenic section.

     

    I pulled in beside him at a motorcycle-dominated rest stop and he struck up a conversation, starting with "That was fun, I was a lot faster than you".

     

    After I stopped laughing, I straightened out my face and just told him he was right about that.

     

    Since his machine cost approximately 10 times the price of my clean (but hardly new and never expensive) restoration project, it was a foregone conclusion. The fact that the outcome was in any way surprising to anyone just implies that the person surprised is simply, well, simple.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    quel surprise?
    14 Oct 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    Looks like PIPErs and MM's are coming in to sell today around 0.135, but having minimal effect.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Patrick, 2 million shares for the day and we're back down to $.12 flat.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    I guess I spoke too soon.
    14 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Make that .115. A full $.02 swing, top to bottom.

     

    It won't end until it ends.
    14 Oct 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    And we closed at $0.1151 - the last trade was after-hours @ $0.12 for 5K.

     

    Those of us that have hung around for a while have been through this sort of stuff and learned.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    Wow, I guess never underestimate the power of the PIPRs. All the more reason to leave no stone unturned in trying to get out from under this thing.
    14 Oct 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: one behavior that has been relatively steady for this stock is "late-day weakness". Not 100%, but darn close to it.

     

    Another thing, if you have Level II available, when the ARCA market-maker is present on the sell-side (ask), down is almost a certainty when we are not being influenced by news. ARCA, ATDF, BTIG, NITE and CDEL will tend to fight each other, in a more or less aggressive fashion, to unload shares. But the most aggressive seem to be ARCA and ATDF, and to a lesser extent BTIG (but not predictably).

     

    At the same time, ATDF, NITE and CDEL (occasionally others) will tend to try and take top spot on the buy side (bid).

     

    Today, and to a lesser degree Thursday and Friday, has been a little unusual. This due to the initial PR, I think, and the re-print in the WSJ, I think.

     

    The unusual part today is the 400K bid I mentioned this A.M. came back along with some other "bigger" bids of 159K and 100K. And they worked their way to the top of the bids later in the day.

     

    Assuming that the folks on the ask side are professionally managed, they would see this, just like I do, and adjust their behavior a bit. It looks like they did yesterday and today - yesterday made the days' high late and three minutes later made the day's low. Today, re-visted near the intra-day high and then collapsed again to finish (close) 1/100th of a penny above the low for the day.

     

    If you are looking for intra-day entry points, generally late will offer it more reliably than early. We often make somewhere near the highs early on normal days *unless* ARCA shows up early - they tend to spoil the show. Often they don't show until after 10:30 and that's the days the morning has the best chance of making a small upward movement.

     

    Last, ARCA almost *never* played here until the just before the PIPE deal was cut. BTIG was also much less active - almost never played here.CDEL and NITE have become more aggressive in their behavior. All that was around the same time we saw the first big jump in the semi-monthly (twice monthly) short interest report with a *huge* increase. It held steady until the last two or three reports IIRC.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    HTL, "Those of us that have hung around for a while have been through this sort of stuff and learned."

     

    No kidding. That's exactly why, for the times when we have big selling like now, news should be measured against this yardstick: does it look like it will be big and sticky? Can it overcome the big, protracted selling? Currently that means 10+ million shares per month by the PIPErs alone, perhaps well into February.

     

    IMO if this NS news only results in a reaffirmation that NS likes the PbC, then the answer is no.

     

    But if there is something like a whole lot more clarity regarding timelines and orders, then maybe yes. Just depends on what they say tomorrow and who hears it.
    14 Oct 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Here, here, Mr. I.
    14 Oct 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... Then the answer you seek is "NO", because this upcoming presentation will most likely not clarify timelines & orders. I can't imagine this audience being interested very much about such things. This will be about the engineering.
    14 Oct 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    MrI: My personal opinion is that this news is not "sticky". I don't know how to think about the presentation: if it's just for professionals in the RR space and they don't tend to be big traders, I guess there wouldn't be much lasting effect.

     

    If it turns out that Axion/NSC news is issued to the general media from that event, might be a different ballgame, as you suggest.

     

    Even so, like you I think the PIPErs hold sway for an extend period between now and mid-November, sans other news from Axion regarding orders. At that time I guess we should here something if Axion doesn't hold it for the Q report and/or CC like they did the "second source" impetus from BMW.

     

    In the darkest depths of my number-crunching pea-brain, I have strong suspicions that we don't see the end until the March time-frame because everything *good* seems to always take so much longer than we anticipate (see VW's rule # 1 in the prior concentrator).

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2463) | Send Message
     
    trip, thx.

     

    DRich, but engineers are curious, so I can easily image someone asking a Q like, "you guys obviously like the concept, but whatcha gonna do about it and when? IOW, why should we care about this?"

     

    And the answer could well be something like, "Good Q's, thx. U must be a manager! Although we've done a heckuva lot of testing of the parts and even the whole in our wonderful simulator, we'll need x months out here in the yard. If all goes well, then we hope to..."
    14 Oct 2013, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >Mr Investor ... I can't imagine Norfolk management allowing a bunch of dirty engineers putting words in their mouths. A response like you envision might make it to the cocktail hour but from the stage I can only see a statement like "We plan on continued testing ...blah,blah ... no specifics" happening. In my dreams I can hope for other. The best response I can think of is blizzard of NDA paperwork descending on New Castle and demo purchases from the newly curious.
    14 Oct 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Engineering confabs and science conventions (both of which I have attended in the past) are often fertile fields for analysts who specialize in the areas being discussed...

     

    If we see some media coverage, particularly investment analysis, it will be from this sort of attendee.
    14 Oct 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I ... I very much doubt the audience will hear much more from Norfolk Southern's representative than "Answer to that question is beyond my pay grade."
    14 Oct 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    PIPE music. Music to calm the savage PIPEr

     

    http://bit.ly/1bS74r5
    14 Oct 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I think I have a better way to soothe the savage PIPErs.

     

    Should work faster too.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gFoPtl

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    HTL, How did I know? Not the exact tool but the category. You got my vote! ;-P.
    14 Oct 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm,
    A warning about big uglies?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    14 Oct 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone else show an after hours trade at .12?
    14 Oct 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    O.R: Yes. $0.12x5K. Seen on both ETrade Time & Sales, Level II and confirmed with ADVFN Trades screen.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    @H.T.L. That was me. I put a 5k buy order in about 30 seconds before the market close (on the offer @ .12). Strangely, it didn't fire until about 7 seconds *after* the market closed (even though the trade was not *eligible* for an after hours fill). I guess the MM can do whatever they hell they want and can fill a "normal hours" trade "after the market close" if they so desire. I'm sure the SEC just looks the other way.

     

    It pisses me off, because I think the MMs are painting the tape and they sat on my Buy Order until just after the close so that today would show (print) a "down" day, instead of just being flat (which is where is should've closed had they acknowledged my trade when they were suppose to). Again, with a worthless SEC, who's gonna play nice.
    14 Oct 2013, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • brianfscott
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    I have had 3 "Good till cancelled" orders filled in the last 2 weeks. In each case, the order was not filled by close of trading, but the next morning it showed up as executing the previous day. Also not eligible for "after hours trading" Strange.
    14 Oct 2013, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: Check your order confirmation. There may be a delay from execution to reporting (i.e. getting on the "tape")?

     

    If not you should be able to get your broker to do something for you since the order was not elgible for AH.

     

    Also, FINRA is an option you could pursue.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 05:53 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2586) | Send Message
     
    FYI:

     

    RTDF2013-4708
    :

     

    Technical Paper Publication

     

    NS 999 Electric Switcher Update

     

    Authors
    Gibson Barbee, Norfolk Southern Railway Company
    Philippe Westreich, Axion Power International Inc.

     

    Abstract
    "Norfolk Southern Railway Company (NS) is developing an all-electric switching locomotive, the NS 999, to provide a zero point source emission electric locomotive option for switching service. The original NS 999 suffered from poor battery management and challenging battery packaging, making maintenance difficult. The rebuilt NS 999, anticipated in the 3rd quarter 2013, will be powered by Axion Power’s PbC® batteries. The Axion PbC® batteries provide increased charge / discharge cycle life and charge acceptance compared to conventional Valve Regulated Lead Acid (VRLA) batteries, as well as increased usable energy when configured in series as ‘long strings.’ NS and Axion will review the challenges of the initial battery management system, improvements to the battery management system, and test results from the Norfolk Southern Hybrid Locomotive Simulator using Axion’s PbC® lead-carbon hybrid battery / supercapacitor. Axion will present test data showing the low variation in strings of PbC® batteries compared to VRLA while simulating locomotive switching. PbC® batteries have a unique charging curve, known as “concave down, increasing,” which allows the batteries to self-equalize in strings. This characteristic of PbC® batteries provides for simpler battery management and reduced maintenance charging, while increasing the usable energy available to the string. "

     

    Session: 1-4 Energy & Environment

     

    TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013:

     

    7:30 am - 8:15 am Conference Continental Breakfast at Blair County Convention Center

     

    RTD TECHNICAL SESSIONS – BLAIR COUNTY CONVENTION CENTER
    8:30 am - 10:15 am Technical Session 1 – Welcome; Tests & Measurements
    10:30 am - 12:15 pm Technical Session 2 – Equipment & Components

     

    12:30 pm - 1:30 pm Conference Luncheon at Convention Center – NO PROGRAM

     

    1:45 pm - 3:30 pm Technical Session 3 – Track & Structures
    3:45 pm - 5:30 pm Technical Session 4 – Energy & Environment
    14 Oct 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • brianfscott
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    Trying to market a battery with the toxic word "lead" as it's first name is like naming your firstborn "Ebola", and wondering why he has no friends. With a nod to the source of the biocarbon used in the electrodes (and trying to paint a positive picture of gracefully swaying palm trees and tall, frosted, umbrella topped glasses), I propose the following:
    For E-Power, the CoCo-GoGo battery,
    For Rail, the CoCo-LoCo,
    For Automotive, the CoCo-MoTo,
    For Stationary, the CoCo-Gizer,
    For Cranes, the CoCo-Lifter
    14 Oct 2013, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Just wanted to verbally acknowledge the brilliance that is this post. Thanks for the laugh. Back to my rock.

     

    G
    14 Oct 2013, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    Now I will not be able to visualize a string of PbC's without "I´ve Got a Lovely Bunch of Coconuts" running through my head. Will spare everyone a link.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:36 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    OT
    It appears Boeing is still having troubles.
    The Dreamliner may turn out to be a nightmare.

     

    Norwegian Air summons Boeing for 787 reliability talks
    Norwegian Air (NWC.OL) has summoned Boeing (BA.N) management to Oslo to explain a slew of technical problems with its 787 Dreamliner after weekend glitches brought further disruption.

     

    While the problems seem minor; JLA (Japanese Airline) has bought their first Airbus ever.

     

    http://bit.ly/H0jPS1
    In a deal with a list value of 950 billion yen ($9.5 billion) with a purchase of 31, A350 planes.
    14 Oct 2013, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Breaking News:

     

    The Washington Redskins plan to drop the word "Washington" from their name because it's an insufferable embarrassment.

     

    Film at 11.
    14 Oct 2013, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Think there is umph to the rumor that "potato" will be added after "Redskins".
    14 Oct 2013, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (213) | Send Message
     
    You guys crack me up!
    14 Oct 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    As a native of D.C. I can tell you the only insufferable embarrassment there are the good-for-nothing, can't-get-the-job-done, amateur "statesmen" that are receiving pay while their underlings go without pay?1?!?!?!
    14 Oct 2013, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    It's "The Senators" name that should be changed. How distasteful!
    14 Oct 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    >Patrick --- Oh, you mean the "statesmen" who are on vacation for months each year (out of session), and only work a day or two per week for a couple hours when they're in session? Of course, that's awfully hard work to talk with constituents the rest of the work week. --- Hey, I think I just posted my first snark! :-))
    15 Oct 2013, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • TimeOnTarget
    , contributor
    Comments (2161) | Send Message
     
    John --

     

    When reading Seeking Alpha, it isn't often that I laugh my ass off-- totally cracked me up!

     

    Yeah, needs to go for more walks and talk a lot less: The demand for POTUS drivel is drying up . . . .
    15 Oct 2013, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • TimeOnTarget
    , contributor
    Comments (2161) | Send Message
     
    "Film at 11" part from "Kentucky Fried Movie" by chance?
    15 Oct 2013, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    PY ... Different strokes for different folks. "Insufferable embarrassment" to me is seeing executive branch officials order non-paid "essential" employees to erect barriers around open memorials, hearing reports that 400K "non-essential" DOD employees furloughed needlessly and inappropriately furloughed despite the reality that a bill funding their salaries was passed and signed by the President before end of fiscal year (Sept 30), hearing of denial of benefits to families of service personnel killed in action since Sept 30. etc, etc, etc......
    15 Oct 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    sorry had to go with something bigger to stop a bear.

     

    http://bit.ly/GVV2zc
    14 Oct 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Ryan, That works for me as well. Bring it on!
    14 Oct 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    Jan 1 is my breathe easier date. Feel like if we can make it to there without breaching the dreaded 10 cent barrier that it will be downhill from there. Any news of substantial and sustained sales/love from NS/a varm velcome to the BMW family or by any other large industrial giant would all meet with me purchasing further shares before Jan.

     

    Back in Portugal on a week off of Dubai. Oh how I love cool weather, having the window open, not listening to the air conditioner running 24/7.

     

    As part of the Axion OCD club, was sitting in the airport the other day wondering what type of batteries the "riding floor cleaning equipment" has and wondering if it would be a good application for our lovely little coconut.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:24 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    and then after checking out the cleaning equipment, saying a word of thanks for catching a ride on a 747 with old school battery technology. Boeing must be monitoring the battery issue with the 787 quite heavily, wondering if they have worked out the issues, somehow feel uncomfortable with it, and would be curious to know what they have found since the issues arose.

     

    From Wikipedia "The Federal Aviation Administration decided on April 19, 2013 to allow US Dreamliners return to service after changes were made to their battery systems to better contain battery fires.[50] Japanese authorities announced they were doing the same for their airplanes. The causes of the battery failures are still unknown."

     

    Somehow the changes made to "better contain the fires" is not comforting. So haven´t eliminated the problems, but now better able to contain them.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » John's charts in the header have been updated. I was late getting to them.
    15 Oct 2013, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    With yesterday's heavy trading, the 10-day volume graph is getting close to a new high. I think the odds are pretty good that we'll eclipse the number this week. The big difference is that prior highs were driven by selling pressure while the current trend seems to be driven by buying pressure. So instead of forcing stock into the the market the PIPErs are being forced to feed strong demand. Sooner or later they'll either run out of stock or get tired of trying to hold down a price that wants to rise.

     

    Volume to date in October should eclipse total volume in September sometime today.

     

    Interesting times.
    15 Oct 2013, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: "So instead of forcing stock into the the market the PIPErs are being forced to feed strong demand".

     

    I'd like to believe it, but I'll be more likely to do so when some stuff I track supports that. I do believe we've had a short-term surge in buying sentiment and activity, but I would expect that if the sellers were *heavily* forced to feed demand we'd see more hitting the ask and less hitting the bid. Ain't happening yet. Hitting the bid is again on the increase.

     

    From today's EOD stuff "The “buys” percentage, which dropped 10.62% yesterday, continues to weaken: 48.2%, 43.1% and today 36.3%, down another 15.9%".

     

    Granted, these are big improvements from just prior to the PR of NSC/AXPW presenting ("buys" 11%, 30.9%, 10.7%, 10.4%, 32.1%, 20.5%, 30.2%, 18.5% and 16.3%), but I view the recent improvements, thus far, as short-term aberrations of the established trend, which I expect will resume, sans big PR on a semi-regular basis.

     

    One of the pitfalls of trying to project from pure aggregated data is the loss of detail. Doesn't make it wrong though - just a bit more risky I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    BMW Mulls Boosting Electric-Car Capacity on Early Demand

     

    Note how they are addressing the "range anxiety"

     

    http://bloom.bg/16JJTLs
    15 Oct 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    “BMW has already absorbed the research and development costs for the vehicle and the car is profitable. So every car sold contributes to profits.”

     

    Some creative accounting done by BMW to cost R&D car to another project.

     

    Renault may be suprisingly taking note that if a car comes with windows as standard equipment, it tends to sell better.
    15 Oct 2013, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    That "range anxiety" solution is one I have been expecting for some time to develop as fuel economy/emissions standards tighten.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (121) | Send Message
     
    NEW CASTLE, Pa., Oct. 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc., (AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, today announced the appointment of Stephen Graham as Chief Financial Officer of the Company. He succeeds Charles Trego, who resigned for personal reasons and was elected to the Board of Directors by the shareholders at the Annual Shareholder Meeting on September 26. The appointment of Stephen Graham is effective October 21, and Mr Trego has agreed to assist in the transition as needed.

     

    Mr. Graham has 20 years of proven experience, having served as the Chief Financial Officer of successful publicly traded and privately held companies. In addition to his extensive traditional financial management background, he also has solid experience in administration, operations management, business planning and development, purchasing, information systems and human resources.
    15 Oct 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    This guy's a workhorse and I think his willingness to join Axion speaks volumes for the near-term business potential.
    15 Oct 2013, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Interesting short stint he had at Broadwind Energy (BWEN). Interim CFO for about 3 months, and then voluntarily resigned. Subsequently, class action lawsuit filed against the company and several of its management and Board. Perhaps he saw a situation at BWEN he didn't like and bailed to avoid the taint (suit primarily dealt with alleged misrepresentations of the financial condition and value of intangible assets -- goodwill), and a motion to dismiss was later granted in part and allowed to proceed in part.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    The link which includes recently held positions. Bet he's impressed by the PIPE deal.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1fzzCX4
    15 Oct 2013, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I'd bet that he's as underwhelmed by the PIPE as everybody else, but figures it won't make a bit of difference to his future because he doesn't have to share the blame for the pain but can bask in the warm fuzzy glow of taking Axion from the depths of despair to lofty new heights.
    15 Oct 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    I can't argue your point. He's got great auto experience and he's done a lot of restructuring. He'll be right at home.
    15 Oct 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Question is whether Axion is his principal place of residence or his second home.
    "During his tenure with CMF (2012-2013) he served as Interim CFO for a renewable energy company, and acted as onsite due diligence officer for the private equity firm that provided the company's financing. "
    15 Oct 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The Form 8-K filing which describes his compensation provides a pretty good answer:

     

    · The term of employment is three years.
    · Annual salary of $250,000 and a monthly car allowance of $750.
    · A 5-year option to purchase 900,000 shares of common stock at a price of $0.15 per share, with 180,000 options vesting immediately, and 20,000 vesting on the last day of each calendar month, commencing on October 31, 2013.
    · A minimum annual bonus of $25,000.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/17GfAkD
    15 Oct 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    "The Form 8-K filing which describes his compensation provides a pretty good answer:"

     

    :-) Unless he is "a double dipper"!
    15 Oct 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    High paid gunslinger.

     

    Now we see if he can shoot.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    If he gets us a reasonable financing deal next time around, he is worth every penny. I would think some other hires would like to have his option at 15 cents to purchase shares.
    15 Oct 2013, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Probably would not object to $750 monthly car allowance or $25k annual bonus either.
    15 Oct 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    The only gripe I have is that 15 cents is not a hard objective and largely will be due to things already in the pipeline. No pun intended.
    15 Oct 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    From the above article: "While at Associated Materials he [Steven Graham] put in place a program that eliminated $20 million of non-value-added supply chain costs and repositioned the balance sheet, including a DEBT RESTRUCTURING." --- (My ALL CAPs)
    .........................

     

    My first thought on the above: --- Might he be motivated to try to do something about the PIPE deal; that he's most likely unimpressed with.
    15 Oct 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    I don't think him or anyone can undo the PIPE deal, JP covered that already this week

     

    I do expect he will have a bigger role in the next financing next year.
    15 Oct 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    "I don't think him or anyone can undo the PIPE deal, JP covered that already this week."

     

    The PIPE deal is definitive ... until the PIPErs get a better offer.
    15 Oct 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    10/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 259, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 54000, Vol: 2088880, AvTrSz: 8065
    Min. Pr: 0.1150, Max Pr: 0.1350, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1258
    # Buys, Shares: 108 757616, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1279
    # Sells, Shares: 149 1324264, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1246
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 7000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1221
    Buy:Sell 1:1.75 (36.3% "buys"), DlyShts 601501 (28.8%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.42%

     

    Daily short sales continue to meet my expectations, which is always comforting. Off the lows, spike up and start to tail down again: 6.92%, 5.00%, 31.58%, 29.42% and now 28.80%. With the recent PR and the conference occurring this week, the pattern may not hold. For now there is something different going on: for the last few days we've had a $0.11x400K bid from CANT sitting there. There's also been a 100K bid hanging low from ATDF. But today that got moved up to $0.129 along with a 100K bid at that price from NITE.

     

    I think these are just tremors though, and not the quakes of change.

     

    There was one after-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,083,880 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.86% to my 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 601,501 to 606,501 and the short percentage would be 29.03%.

     

    Today will be the third day of the pop and the first day of presentations at the conference at which Axion and Norfolk Southern will make a joint presentation. Regardless of what effect may issue from the presentation, I'm tracking if the pop is behaving normally.

     

    I got rather long-winded again, so I chopped this post here.

     

    Rest of the stuff is available in the latest daily post:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    CANT is in on the bid again with 400K @ $0.11 bid. The additional 100K and 195K seen yesterday havent appeared yet, but NITE has 50K at $0.1201 just below ATDF's (naturally!) $0.1202x9.1K,

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    Cantor Fitzgerald is an unusual market maker to see on the bid for Axion. Their client book is almost exclusively institutional and you rarely see them making markets in nano-caps.

     

    http://www.cantor.com
    15 Oct 2013, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Let's hope that the long list of unique & good things Axion has racked up might finally catch the eye of some sizable Market participant.
    15 Oct 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I checked OTCBB to see if I could find a list of stocks that CANT worked as a market maker and it only listed six of them. I'm sure there's a more comprehensive list somewhere, but I haven't found it so far.
    15 Oct 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    John: I thin (Thanks Desi!) that *must* be good news.

     

    If noting else, it gives a potential short-term floor.

     

    yesterday was the first day since I started tracking that the 85% price of the 20 days in the 40-day window did NOT drop - finished flat.

     

    That's due to the VWAP the last few holding up pretty well - IIRC $0.1285 was dropping out of the window a few days ago and we added some some pretty close to it the last few days.

     

    xx <-- fingers crossed.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    Has no one posted this yet?
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    15 Oct 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It just went up after being rejected the first time around.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1014) | Send Message
     
    John, it seems to me there is a contradiction in your article between the two statements:

     

    • "In ePower's series hybrid drivetrain, there is no mechanical linkage between the engine and the wheels"

     

    • "For big climbs, the five-speed automatic transmission simply downshifts to a lower gear like all other heavy-duty tractors"
    15 Oct 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The transmission sits between the drive motor and the differential.

     

    Tesla does it all with a variable speed drive motor. To get the hauling capacity for heavy trucking, a transmission is essential.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1014) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John!
    15 Oct 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    It showed up in my mailbox earlier this morning. So it's up now.
    15 Oct 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (231) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Very well written and readable article, no surprise about that, thanks.

     

    Just had to slip a snipe in there about Tesla didn't you? Don't suppose too many Tesla lovers are truck drivers or trucking magnates so no harm, no foul . . and gave me a good laugh.

     

    geopark

     

    ps Just had
    15 Oct 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
     
    Nice to see JP writing about AXPW again! I dare say that is what brought most of us to the stock and an article like this one will bring in more buyers.
    15 Oct 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    For over a year SA has had a policy in place that prohibits focus articles on companies that trade for less than $1 and have less than $100 million in market cap. Since Axion fails on both counts, I have to do a lot of political wrangling to get anything like today's article published. It's a good thing the editors like me and the APCs are so widely followed. Otherwise I'd be SOL.

     

    I just got a note from a friend who told me that today's article ended up as one of the five Editors' Picks for the day.

     

    It's really funny when you realize that their first action was a rejection.
    15 Oct 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (486) | Send Message
     
    JP: Thanks for answering the question that likely was on all our minds!

     

    BTW, you mention end of November for the 3rd generation ePower rebuild hitting the road. That seems like a delay. Can you shed any light on issues ePower is facing?
    15 Oct 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It's more like reasonable expectations management. Any time you change an electromechanical system you have to change or redesign components to make everything fit together. It includes everything from bolt patterns on flywheels and bell housings to modifications in control circuitry. We hope to have the sleeper cab done closer to the beginning than the end of November, but I know how impatient Axionistas can be, so I'm going to give myself as much rubber as I can.
    15 Oct 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    John, re the "big climbs", can you fill in the background as to what happens when the climb is long enough to exhaust the stored electricity? [And is thus limited by the power delivered by the generator.] Like....
    How far does the stored energy get you in terms of the length of this type of challenge? [ie how often will this be an issue?]

     

    Does the driver get any advance warning? Either by way of stored knowledge about routes and their terrain, or by projected life from the onboard monitoring kit (like a car's estimated mileage range display)?

     

    Eventually the truck runs at a lower speed when powered by the generator alone (well, unless I'm missing something) - how much of an issue will this be for the drivers of this and other trucks and vehicles? [Maybe there are lots of very slow trucks about so this is not an issue?] Might this extend journey times in a way that might discourage use?

     

    How long does it take to recharge the batteries when exhausted? I'm assuming a driver could just sit stationary and wait for the batteries to recharge?

     

    Will there need to be a refinement to a "one size fits all" battery sizing to deal with certain localities?
    16 Oct 2013, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The climbing issue is 180º out of synch with what most people think about. If a climb has a steep enough grade that a conventional diesel truck will have to shift to a lower gear, the ePower tractor will do the same thing. The bigger challenges are 5 to 10 mile grades of 1% to 2% where everybody wants to move smoothly at posted speeds. When the second-generation prototype encounters a hill that's long enough to deplete the batteries, it loses power near the top and falls back into the 50 mph range, but it quickly recharges once the hill is crested and the inevitable downhill arrives.

     

    While climbing is an issue for the second-generation prototype, it should be far less of an issue for the third-generation. The current Genset can only produce 93 kW after parasitic loads. The Cummins six-cylinder should boost the maximum Genset power to its full over-rated capacity of 128 kW, a 37.6% increase in useful horsepower. Until the third-generation drivetrain is built and tested we won't know for sure what the climbing performance will be, but we're optimistic that most of the climbing issues will be eliminated and stress on the batteries will be reduced by the wider Genset power band.
    16 Oct 2013, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John, although it seems contrary that an engine+generator small enough to be good at delivering better mpg is big enough to cope with climbing?

     

    I gather, http://bit.ly/19Pd00I, that a normal truck (13 - 15 liter) will produce hps in the order of 400+ to 500+, that is 300+ to 400+ kW. [See also in that article "“Remember that the driver alone can have a 30 percent impact on fuel economy,” says Rumsey. ", so that in itself is quite a large variation compared with what ePower is offering, do we know which end of that scale ePower is comparing itself too?]

     

    So 128kW seems quite a bit smaller than those.

     

    Maybe I need a better grounding in how much power is needed from a normal engine to cope with acceleration vs climbing vs flat-road cruising, and how the fuel savings achieved are cumulated from the regen vs more efficient power generation.
    16 Oct 2013, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    The typical tractor runs between 400 and 450 hp, although there are bigger engines for tractors that haul overweight loads. While the article says that 13 liter is becoming an industry standard, the Cummins six that ePower will use in the third-generation prototype is only 6.7 liters.

     

    In ePower's system it's important to distinguish between the maximum generator output and the maximum drive motor input.

     

    The generator can't provide more than 128 kW of power. When you add another layer of power from the batteries, the total available power at the drive motor is much higher.

     

    ePower's drive motor is an inverter duty AC induction motor with a rated capacity of 150 hp (110 kW) that can be over-rated to 380 hp (280 kW) for up to 15 minutes per hour. The only limitations on over-rating are battery power and heat build up. As long as the motor stays cool, which is pretty easy in an open truck chassis, it's no problem to get all the horsepower the truck needs.

     

    It takes about 115 kW to haul an 80,000 pound load at 65 mph over flat level ground. If you size the engine and generator for the minimum demand and rely on the batteries for transitory excess demands, you get to the most efficient system possible.

     

    Hybrid trucks typically get 15% to 20% improvements in urban duty cycles with less in highway duty cycles because they use large engines. The only way to really slash fuel use is to slash engine size and surround it with the most efficient system possible.
    16 Oct 2013, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Would be interesting in the future to see maps accompanying ePowers sales efforts that indicate the targeted driving routes in the various markets. Kind of along the lines of what the various cell phone companies do for signal coverage. Something to think about for the hopefully not to distant future as sales efforts ramp once a fully vetted product is available.
    16 Oct 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (817) | Send Message
     
    Anyone that has ever driven through the Rockies knows that even the high power diesel big rigs have to slow to a crawl to get through some of those mountain passes. It is not surprising that it would be the same for an ePower hybrid. The great thing about having PbC as the battery storage is how fast it can recharge after cresting the hill and get back to full charge in time for the next hill.
    16 Oct 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    This happens in the Appalacian Mountains, too. Between Asheville, NC and Knoxville Tennessee, it looks like a train of slow moving trucks crawling up the right hand lane. When they hit the crest, it's a free ride with truck emergency chutes every couple of miles....the regenerative braking would have the batteries charged in 15 seconds!! Also, Jellico Mountain between Knoxville and Lexington, Ky is a steep grade. Beautiful on top, though.
    16 Oct 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Dave T
    With te previous gen set we talked about it's limitations.
    Which are unknown for the new gen set ATM.
    When traveling across the Ohio - Penn border on the turnpike you will find a parking lot full of stopped trucks on the Ohio side.
    Ohio allows triple trailer rigs Penn does not. The biggest Pa alows are doubles.
    Fleets have trucks that drive the Pa mountain route dropping off and picking up trailers depending on the need and the direction they are going. If needed they would have a 'mountain goat' for the steepest part and ePower from the Rockies to the Appalachians.
    North south routes in the Midwest and much of the coasts are good too.

     

    It would be nice if ePower can handle it all; but it's not a big problem for fleets if it can't,
    16 Oct 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    This was on the MSN newsfeed this morning. Ford allying with Univ of Mich for battery lahttp://news.msn.com/...
    15 Oct 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    http://on-msn.com/171hItU
    15 Oct 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    JP, do you recollect whether Stephen Graham was the CFO then-candidate introduced at the AGM?
    15 Oct 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall the name, but given the timing it wouldn't surprise me.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    I just checked the concentrators.
    Everyone just wrote the "CFO candidate". Or something similar. No name was mentioned.
    Someone who met him would have to find a pix.
    15 Oct 2013, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    Through googling, I've discovered a seeming discrepancy/ omission/ mystery regarding new Axion CFO Stephen Graham.

     

    Omitted from the Axion PR is any mention of his relevant, recent-history appointment at Broadwing (that PR, below).

     

    As well, that 2009 PR cites 30 years of experience vs. Axion's 2013 PR citing his 20 years experience...

     

    ======================...

     

    "BROADWIND ENERGY : Announces Appointment of Stephen Graham as Interim CFO
    05/01/2009 | 04:30pm US/Eastern

     

    NAPERVILLE, Ill., May 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Broadwind Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: BWEN), a leading provider of components, logistics and services to the wind power and broader energy markets, today announced that Stephen Graham has been named Interim Chief Financial Officer effective May 1, 2009. Graham replaces Matthew Gadow who resigned effective April 30, 2009 to pursue other interests.

     

    Stephen Graham has 30 years of accounting and finance experience, including 15 years serving in a Chief Financial Officer capacity. Most recently he was CFO of Wastequip, an international waste equipment manufacturer, and Shiloh Industries, a publicly traded automotive components manufacturer. Graham earned his bachelor's degree in Commerce and Finance from the University of Toronto and is a Chartered Accountant.

     

    "We are delighted to welcome Steve to our leadership team," said J. Cameron Drecoll, CEO of Broadwind Energy. "Steve's extensive experience as a CFO of multiple industrial publicly traded companies will provide valuable expertise in support of our growth strategy."

     

    About Broadwind Energy, Inc.

     

    Naperville, Illinois-based Broadwind Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: http://bit.ly/18hSjda), provides a broad array of integrated supply-chain solutions to the power infrastructure industry, with an emphasis on the wind energy sector. Broadwind's products and services include wind tower and precision gear manufacturing; heavy steel fabrication; wind facility construction support; wind turbine installation and maintenance; and wind turbine transportation services. Broadwind's customers include many of the leading wind turbine manufacturers and wind farm owners in North America. Broadwind employs more than 1,000 employees and has over 1,000,000 square feet of production and service center capacity nationwide. For more information, visit http://bit.ly/18hSaXa."
    15 Oct 2013, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    See my earlier post. Held the job for 3 months before he voluntarily resigned. Some litigation issues covering that period, as well as earlier and subsequent period of time, in form of class action suit. My hunch is Graham saw an accounting mess at BWEN and was happy to go somewhere else more secure. He certainly wasn't there long enough to financially create the mess.
    15 Oct 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    Rupers, thanks for the extra information/ update you provided simultaneous to my posting! Just to tie the two together, I'll re-quote your contribution:

     

    "Interesting short stint he had at Broadwind Energy (BWEN). Interim CFO for about 3 months, and then voluntarily resigned. Subsequently, class action lawsuit filed against the company and several of its management and Board. Perhaps he saw a situation at BWEN he didn't like and bailed to avoid the taint (suit primarily dealt with alleged misrepresentations of the financial condition and value of intangible assets -- goodwill), and a motion to dismiss was later granted in part and allowed to proceed in part."
    15 Oct 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1317) | Send Message
     
    He has been involved in taking some companies private. Just thought I'd get that speculation started. :-)
    15 Oct 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    It would be almost impossible to take Axion private without a massively successful tender offer. You basically can't do it unless you can accumulate over 80% of the stock.
    15 Oct 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    As contrasting with the Axion pay package for our new CFO cited by JP above...

     

    From salary.com:

     

    "As Former Senior Vice President-Chief Financial Officer and Secretary at ASSOCIATED MATERIALS, LLC, Stephen E. Graham made $1,363,442 in total compensation. Of this total $52,000 was received as a salary, $0 was received as a bonus, $0 was received in stock options, $0 was awarded as stock and $1,311,442 came from other types of compensation. This information is according to proxy statements filed for the 2012 fiscal year."
    15 Oct 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    I pledge that if I win the lottery, I will buy out the PIPErs on the open market.
    15 Oct 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (231) | Send Message
     
    Patrick,

     

    I believe in smoking the Axion hopium pipe but I suggest you be careful with the lottery hopium pipe, really bad odds I think.

     

    I'm with you on buying AXPW however, I am currently working to free cash to increase my position. Ten cents, twelve cents, fifteen or twenty-five all are attractive prices to me. Long as always.

     

    geopark
    15 Oct 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (690) | Send Message
     
    Picked up 63k a few minutes ago.

     

    Hoping for more cash to come free to buy AXPW before everyone else finally gets wind of this wonderful technology.
    15 Oct 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    It's not hopium. I only play the Powerball, and only when the (accumulated over several draws without a winner) grand prize is above $350 Million, since the odds of winning are 1 in 175 million and a ticket costs $2.

     

    Theoretically, if you lived "forever", this might be a wash in the long run, or a significant income booster in the short run if you're lucky.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1254) | Send Message
     
    2 things spoil the odds for you:

     

    First is taxes and probability of sharing the prize, which lowers your expected return.

     

    Second is the Kelly Criterion, which dictates how much you should bet given the volatility of return. Given that the odds are so low, ironically the lottery should only be played when you are wealthy and the payout is roughly double 350m. Otherwise you likely will just push yourself closer to ruin.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, I look at it this way. How much time and money have we spent trying to eliminate "illegal" gaming from groups like the mafia because it's bad. Well guess what. The mafia never gave odds as bad as one gets from government lotteries. Especially when one considers the taxes. But hey, at least the government agencies will not break your legs after they empty your wallet. Well that's only because they will not let you play on credit. I say shame on them.
    17 Oct 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    PY ... I will play powerball similarly, but require the probability-of- winning discounted cash payout value to exceed the value of my after-tax dollar wager.
    17 Oct 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    Whenever I play, which is rarely, I always buy two tickets as I double my odds of winning with the purchase of one additional ticket. Haven't won anything with this strategy.
    17 Oct 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    I always figured that Moses was kept out of Canaan because he hit the rock twice. Since playing the lottery is always praying for a miracle I figure He doesn't need two chances.
    17 Oct 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    With all the talk of lottery winnings, I purchased two €2 tickets and won €10. The miracle occurred on the first ticket (winning anything for me is a miracle).

     

    I was with someone once when they filled out a lottery ticket and got 5 of 6 numbers correct. They subsequently won a few hundred dollars. To this day the person has been mad at me because they claim they would have divined the sixth number had I not hurried them.

     

    At that point, I divined that this person was a loon.
    20 Oct 2013, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    and got a prompt divorce from his daughter.
    8 Jan, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Good thing Metro. You would have had to split your 8 euro winnins.

     

    BTW, Why is it people say they won, as an example, 10 units of something when they paid 2 units to win it? Is it because the odds are so bad that they've already written off the 2 units before they assess the outcome? :-I
    8 Jan, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
     
    In the case of the lottery I think its a sunk cost. Assumed as a zero also we really are stupid creatures.

     

    My father in law often brags that he won $75 in this pool or that but leaves off his investment or the times that he lost. For example he told me that he won over $1200 this year during the NFL season. I know that he spends $50/week over 17 weeks buying the same squares so he's really up $350 (1200 - 850). Its a coping mechanism to allow him to waste this money without feeling guilty.

     

    Here is a story of a friend that you may like.

     

    He was in charge of buying lotto tickets for a group of coworkers and each person would chip in $2 each week. As he was a trustworthy guy nobody ever wanted to see the tickets. The guy never bought any tickets unless the jackpot was over $50M and he would distribute copies of the tickets for people to follow. At the end of the year he gave each of his coworkers a $50 bill for Christmas and told them it was their money back for not playing the lotto. He said the $2 was worth some dream time of what it would mean but the less amounts after split/tax/ lump sum wasn't worth it to them.

     

    I've never seen people so angry with someone.
    8 Jan, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    kind of like many of us would make a nice bit of cash by selling our Axion shares now.
    8 Jan, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    OT Still don't have these things figured out.

     

    BTW, This is Tesla's rumored next supplier for additional battery sales.

     

    Samsung offering free batteries for anyone affected by battery issues

     

    "Following a report by German site MobiFlip which claimed that the Samsung Galaxy S4 has been plagued with battery issues, a problem that is thought to have affected 30 percent of all Galaxy S4 owners — Samsung has promised free battery replacements for those affected."

     

    http://bit.ly/167Rzcd
    15 Oct 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Don't know about their auto batteries, but I've had my S4 for 4 months now and I've never had any issues with the battery.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, Could be a distinct market issue or perhaps an issue with certain build dates? By distinct market I mean they might segment different manufacturing processes/plants to different regions. We don't know the cause of the problem. But we do know there is a problem based on the article.

     

    Do you use your battery heavily?
    15 Oct 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    "Do you use your battery heavily? "
    Depends on the day, though not as heavily as some do. Also I am in a building that gets no direct cell tower reception. I used to drain my old flip phone battery every day just because the phone was always looking for a signal. I got a signal booster that runs off my ethernet, so now the battery barely moves unless I'm watching video on it.

     

    As for differences in the batteries, most of Europe has different grid specs than the US, so it would not surprise me that the batteries are different builds.
    Actually, that makes me wonder if Tesla is going to have to do different battery builds for the cars it sells in Europe or China? Maybe they will adjust for this by modifying the chargers?
    15 Oct 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, Thanks. It sounds like you're not in the upper band of users that are more heavily taxing your batteries. Just a theory.but we do know that more use reduces the battery life on average.

     

    I'd expect that you are correct and the battery chargers handle the differences between US and European voltage/frequency. But the higher voltage in Europe would allow for an average recharge rate for Tesla to be faster with a base charger.
    15 Oct 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, More info. in this article. Not just in Germany it seems.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aOnqfp

     

    Edit: This article claims some people are indicating elevated temperatures as well. This tells me it has a higher probability of occurring while the battery is being charged. Be careful where you leave your phone while charging with the wife and wee ones. :(

     

    http://bit.ly/GYvyBb
    16 Oct 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Someone goofed and did $0.10X10k @ 12:45:28 when trading was $0.124/$0.126.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8492) | Send Message
     
    Oop's, So much for bottom fishing. No, no, no, I meant BUY! ;-D

     

    I bet someone would like a "do over".
    15 Oct 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (836) | Send Message
     
    High volume and upward momentum: Just "maybe" some institutional investing? Wouldn't that make this an hallelujah day?
    15 Oct 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (847) | Send Message
     
    Well, it's a record day at least: another 70,000 shares for a new volume record.
    15 Oct 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    Did someone say there was a link to purchase the ASME technical paper for $25?
    15 Oct 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    dirtdauber posted this in the last concentrator:

     

    "The conference proceedings are not available on the ASME website, yet, but when they are, you may purchase a pdf copy on-line for $25."
    15 Oct 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2424) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Lab Tech.
    15 Oct 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (152) | Send Message
     
    I can't recall ever hearing how our company came to be called "Axion".

     

    JP??

     

    FWIW: I discovered an additional company using the name "Axion" -- Axion Capital Management in San Rafael, CA.

     

    "Axion Capital Management is a boutique asset management firm offering alternative investment opportunities and wealth management services to institutions and high net worth individuals.

     

    Our hedge fund, Axion Long-Short Fund, LP was launched in January of 2013.

     

    Besides managing an absolute return fund, Axion Capital Management also has extensive experience in the private equity space. Over the years our firm has funded unique opportunities in technology and life sciences. Most recently, we were the lead investor in AmpliMed Corporation, a biotech drug discovery company founded by renowned oncologists, which currently has multiple drugs in late stage clinical trials.

     

    In addition, Axion Capital Management offers private wealth management services for high net worth individuals seeking long term capital appreciation."

     

    http://bit.ly/19FgKzK
    15 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    That decision was made before I met the company so I can't offer a whole lot of insight.
    15 Oct 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (269) | Send Message
     
    Volume today 3 million shares and counting
    15 Oct 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    @Poul: My "call" last week was to see over 10 million for the week... heck, at this rate, we might see 20 million.

     

    This is great news! And a .1300 BID as I write this. Shucks folks, I'm giddy! LOL
    15 Oct 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1484) | Send Message
     
    I just feel so inadequate when trying to project/analyze price and volume. I´ve projected wrong every time so far. Haven't lost the war though, just every battle.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    Will volume breach 4 million today? 3.588 million share volume through 3:15pm Eastern time.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    Yes - just did.
    15 Oct 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    There's 4 million volume with still 10 minutes left to go!!!!
    15 Oct 2013, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1769) | Send Message
     
    Over 4 million shares bought/sold and the price moved up 1.2 cents. Have I mention that I hate the PIPE financing?
    15 Oct 2013, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Labtech: Then you'll love this: VWAP move from yesterday's $0.1258 to $0.1269 today.

     

    On a side note, I suspect a jump in daily short sales, where it should have continued lower. Whether it's enough short volume to move percentage up I can't guess.

     

    But I'm happy anyway - another day where the 85% price will not be adversely affected.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    :-) Appears today will be "throwing its weight around" for a while in VWAP calc.
    15 Oct 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: Not as long as you'd think, if your thinking of the 85% price. Remember, it's the lowest 20 VWAPs in a 40-day window.

     

    The beneficial effect, *regardless* of volume, is that the VWAP is not substantially lower. This means that a new low VWAP was not injected into the 40-day or 20-day window. If this goes long-enough, some of those VWAPs in the lowest 20 category will begin to fall out of the 40-day window and disappear from the 85% calculations. Eventually this could yield higher prices falling within the 20-day window.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Oct 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    I hope this isn't the volume spike that often signals end of a trend.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29176) | Send Message
     
    OK. I'm impressed.
    15 Oct 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    @H.T.L: Today smells of perhaps some institutional type involvement. Especially with CANT jumping into the fray recently.
    15 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: I wonder how much comes from them we never see where they just go hit the ask.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    That's over my head, but I suspect your meaning is not complimentary.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1317) | Send Message
     
    I posted this on JP's SA piece on Axion and several asked that I repost here...though I think it may be redundant as I imagine most here have read JP's piece. Anyway:

     

    "OK. Let's see if we can get past people who seem to have a bone to pick with JP.

     

    New types of batteries are needed if we are to cut our use of carbon based fuels for numerous reasons that are clear to everyone who invests in green energy sources.

     

    The biggest problems that batteries face in working within the green energy paradigm are partial state recharging, string behavior that requires complex and expensive battery management systems (BMS), and extreme temperatures due to how they effect the battery, and in only some cases weight, but in all cases cost and being able to be recycled.

     

    In situations where weight is not an issue, but being recycled and extreme temperatures are issues, where the cost of string behavior is a major issue, and where partial state recharging is THE issue, the Axion battery is the only player that has been proven to work effectively.

     

    The truth of this statement has been established by multiple year research programs that have been presented in peer reviewed papers by BMW and NS. Now, we have a small private company making products with Axion batteries after trying all other reasonable sources.

     

    Axion says that they have some big sales in the pipeline that will be announced by MId-November and that they have enough money to last until they will need more money to increase production beyond their already sizable capacity.

     

    NS is currently presenting a paper about the use of the technology, and showing off their new Axion powered locomotive to the engineering public in a presentation sponsored by the Federal Railway Commission, and has applied for and received patents for using Axion batteries in switching locomotives. NS has been researching this process for more than 5 years and has gone fully public with Axion as their battery partner. Each yard switcher uses over 1000 batteries...there are thousands of yard switchers currently spending about 70% of their time with engines idling. A practice that must be curtailed if RRs are to meet federal clean air guidelines.

     

    BMW has researched the Axion battery for years and has gone public years ago with Axion as a partner, and has asked Axion to develop secondary manufacturing capability with a tier 1 battery manufacturer. Cars will be moving to 48 volts ans cars are being increasingly electrified. When BMW moves to 48 volts it will likely be with Axion batteries. Axion has stated that BMW and Axion have meetings twice a month. This IS an ongoing project.

     

    If ePower is successful, they will need tens of thousands of batteries.

     

    We have not even discussed island nations that need to get off carbon based fuels and in moving to wind and sun need batteries with Axion's characteristics, or several other major applications.

     

    So, if all that is interesting, do your DD and buy 50,000 shares for about $6,000.00 or what ever multiple feels right to you. Or, be fully safe, which is reasonable, and watch the train leave the station."
    15 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Totdoc: minor correction IIRC? "Each yard switcher uses over 1000 batteries" s/b 864 batteries.

     

    But a *great* comment, regardless.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1317) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    15 Oct 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like