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  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    No. 1 ?
    16 Oct 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Ishikawa, Boy you're fast. Congrats!
    16 Oct 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    This is the 200th Concentrator since the APH took over from Mayascribe and I want to express my deepest thanks for all the hard work. You've done a yeoman's job APH, even if you are a little lenient when it comes to the delete comment function.
    16 Oct 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • dastar
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. Learned much from these concentrators. I think the APH mod(s) have had more patience that I would have. Kudos!
    16 Oct 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    You might find this slightly OT, but I blame iindelco.

     

    In 1975 I bought a Troy-Bilt roto-tiller made in Troy, NY for organic gardeners. It isn't the toy thing called Troy-Bilt today, it was the real McCoy and was one bad-bleep tiller. SWMBO was an organic gardener back then and in fact was a state of Georgia Master Gardener certified by UGA. She takes this gardening stuff seriously. :>)

     

    So all these years that poor little Troy-Bilt has had the stew beaten out of it (replaced the engine twice ! ) and it followed us from Atlanta to here where we retired in the Shenandoah Valley.

     

    This year if finally crapped out. It still works just fine, but it drops belts, needs adjustment, etc. In short, it was simply too worn out and tired for me to put up with any more. I'm giving it to a guy who has lots of kids and needs help.

     

    Old order Mennonites here (think similar to Amish) use BCS tillers, Italian machines, as their roto-tiller. I bit the bullet figgering, "What the hay? If these folks use it, it has to be good." Right?

     

    I have now spent about four hours using our brand new BCS roto-tiller. Holy-Bleep, what a machine ! No belts. No chains. Just a geared transmission with an oil bath clutch. It's actually a walk-behind tractor with a tiller attachment. You can drop the tiller and add a sickle bar. A snow blower. A plow. A hay baler. All kinds of stuff !

     

    They cost a fortune. If you are a gardener, just go ahead and buy the thing. You'll hand it down to your grandchildren. Every once in awhile a product comes along too good to be true. That's the BCS.

     

    Before I forget: The blaming iidelco part. ! ! ! !

     

    On the SA concentrator 274 he introduced bat guano. Wish I had 500#, BTW ! Anyway, bat guano is highly prized to till into your soil. It's spectacular garden stuff.

     

    Hence, iidelco is responsible for you having to read this ridiculous OT post.

     

    His bleeping fault !

     

    Do buy the tiller, though. It truly is amazing.

     

    Got two John Deere tractors, a BCS tiller, a great dog, a great shop, great truck, a great guitar, and a wife who gives me instructions. I'm living large ! ! ! !

     

    Is this a great country, or what ?????
    16 Oct 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    VW, by far one of your best posts ! Have a great day
    16 Oct 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    VW, Phew, Not to tattle, oh all right, it twas HTL. Innocence at last.

     

    BTW, You got some toys there.
    16 Oct 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, that's just great !

     

    Throwing poor old (keyword, that ) HTL under the bus.

     

    Do not introduce facts to obfuscate my twisted rant !

     

    I' m sure if poor old, old, old (keyword, that) HTL brought up the topic of bat guano you tricked him into it !

     

    ME ? I finished my last (LAST ! ) raised flower bed. Finished today at 5:30 pm. Whoo-hooooo !

     

    Next spring I can begin raising her 12 (twelve ! ) vegetable beds. I can hardly wait. :>)

     

    When the time comes, I'll try to blame you. I damne sure ain't gonna blame her ! :>)
    16 Oct 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1566) | Send Message
     
    Valley, you just made my day!
    16 Oct 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    VW,
    I've got you one better. First, I've still got my 16 year old Troy-bilt yard vacuum and chipper. I think that 8hp Briggs and Stratton engine will run forever. Second, I moved next door to a guy who has his own organic lawn care service. So instead of having to go out and buy the BCS, I just let him run his tractor over his and my garden areas every spring to cut up the soil and spread the compost I have delivered from the local rock shop (lots of red clay in NC. The soil needs help). Then I get out my tiller and mix it all together before I do my spring planting. Oh, and the tiller is one that a friend of mine bought a few years before he moved into a pricey neighborhood with big houses and no yards. So now I'm "storing" his tiller in my shed. The moral of the story...never buy anything new...and...,whenever possible, have great neighbors and friends!
    ;-)
    16 Oct 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Navigant sees hydraulic hybrid technology at inflexion point; technology ready, requires OEM production commitment

     

    http://bit.ly/1hXs0dU
    16 Oct 2013, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    HTL, in response to your last post on APC 275,

     

    Don't know if this will help at all, I suspect not since the volume is so low; but I've been adding to my sock drawer all week. Added 13k since Monday and intend to continue adding thru the week's end (to get to about 50k total for the week). I only trade 1k share blocks though, because that's cheapest with my broker.

     

    G
    16 Oct 2013, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Isthisonebetter: Thanks, but I try to not use this sort of info. I'm afraid it'll introduce some kind of bias into my thinking, beyond any I may already have.

     

    But the thought is appreciated! We can all use any help we can get.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Word gets around...
    FinanzNachrichten.de
    http://bit.ly/1aq9hDt
    16 Oct 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Greentongue: That's interesting as heck. My first thought was wondering if there were a few folks at BMW walking around with their chest puffed out saying "We found them first"!

     

    OTOH, someone is likely asking "Why aren't we using them already before this dumb old American RR"? Yeah, I know that's really not the case, and why - thanks to folks here that educated us about the auto folks.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    BMW and the other major German auto manufacturers have received the backing of the German government to squash or delay the EU regulatory changes pertaining to emissions. This was predictable and perhaps even inevitable, but this delay ties in neatly with TG's announcement that AXPW was no longer including them in its forward looking planning, at least for the time being.

     

    Without the spur of solid government deadlines to meet...

     

    Best to refocus our attention on what is happening in Washington with the looming regulatory deadlines for rail and trucking.

     

    My crystal ball prediction: Trucking will get very little easing this year, while rail will get half a loaf. 2015 will stick for new production locomotive standards, while overhauls will get some relief. What COULD be included in the same regulatory reconstruction might be some dramatic subsidies (such as we have seen for decades for hybrids and EVs) for hybrid trucks. Right now a buyer gets $7500 gift from the US taxpayer if they buy a Tesla, plus assorted amounts (depending upon which state is involved, some quite large) from State taxpayers, access to HOV lanes, etc, etc, etc. There is every expectation that similar goodies will flow to hybrid truck buyers.

     

    As for Rail, the subsidies will be titanic, but geared toward the sensibilities of large corporate railway operators.

     

    Its possible that the two events (easing of regulatory standards and throwing open the US Treasury to encourage consumption of the new products) will happen in a single bill enjoying bipartisan support.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    While I'm not terribly excited about the prospects for Federal help, New York State recently implemented a truck voucher program thats been separated into three classes and will offer vouchers for 80% of the incremental cost (maximum $40,000) to purchasers of approved heavy truck hybrids.

     

    https://truck-vip.ny.gov
    http://bit.ly/19p19Zz

     

    We're already working on it.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    TB, Not so sure I'd tie the opportunity of PbC to serve as an automotive solution to the elimination or delay of the mentioned EU regs. We don't have enough data to know perfectly what apps PbC has been targeted for as a possible solution for necessary storage. What we do know is that at some efficiency level the characteristics offered by the PbC battery are good and at some higher/lower level they become not so good. It's a complex puzzle and very dynamic with all the technological changes occurring across the board.

     

    For example the Chevy Malibu. Note the end statement. Yep, They made so many improvements to the power train e-Assist became obsolete for this app. In my opinion this is good for PbC because it doesn't compete well in the high voltage market for passenger EV's requiring significant launch assist.

     

    GM Chooses Micro- Over Mild-Hybrid in New Malibu

     

    http://bit.ly/16diNhy
    17 Oct 2013, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco,

     

    "For example the Chevy Malibu. Note the end statement. Yep, They made so many improvements to the power train e-Assist became obsolete for this app. In my opinion this is good for PbC because it doesn't compete well in the high voltage market for passenger EV's requiring significant launch assist."

     

    I am very interested in your reservations about the PbC's competitiveness in the 'high voltage' market. Are you referring to the greater than 50V designs (Malibu e-Assist using 110V design) or do you include the 48V iterations? Also, do you agree that launch assist or regen. braking needs a electrical architecture greater than 50V?
    17 Oct 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    It looks like the NY program most applicable to ePower vehicles is #2 in the list of funded programs:

     

    >>
    2. New York City Alternative Fuel Vehicle – Voucher Incentive Fund (NYCAFV- VIF)

     

    Vouchers Coming Soon!
    $6 Million Available in Voucher Incentives for Alternative Fuel Vehicles
    Alternative Fuel Vehicles Include: Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), CNG Engine Conversions, Hybrid-Electric, and All-Electric (EVs)
    Covers 80% of the Incremental Cost and Not to Exceed $40,000 per Vehicle
    Applies to Class 3 to Class 8 Private Fleet Vehicles
    Vehicle must be domiciled (registered and garaged) and operate 70% of the time in the five boroughs of New York City.
    <<

     

    How many class 8 trucks are domiciled and operate 70% of the time in the five boroughs?

     

    $6mill/$40K is 150 vehicles funded by this program. Nice work if you can get it.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Axion is providing significant support in efforts to qualify our third-generation tractor for the program.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    99% of these funds will go to the municipalities and things like garbage trucks of all sizes. Think NY mafia & u will see where these funds go.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    42itus1, When I look at the requirements for energy in an ICE powered vehicle I see the need for both the energy from the combustion process and electricity. I consider the electricity a higher order level of energy. Which is to say it is more useful. Why? There are so many opportunities to utilize it to increase the efficiency of the system. First off you wasted some of the energy from the ICE to create it. And since you have so many functions in the vehicle that require this energy why return it to propulsion? Instead you can reduce the time the engine runs by covering it's back for creature needs when you don't need the engine for its primary task. Or you can disconnect the alternator since you have enough electricity. As I've said before, once you get the vehicle closer to being an intelligent micro grid you can flex the components needing electricity to run only when you need them. This allows for the engine to be reduced in size and for the system to keep the engine running closer to it's sweet spot. Electricity in a passenger vehicle is far too valuable to use it for propulsion given certain levels of electrification. It's far far more flexible than the rotational torque provided by the ICE.

     

    As for my comments on the PbC and its target voltage ranges. I think it's fine for 48 V systems. I worry that once you go to the higher voltage systems, such as e-Assist, it's mass and volume disadvantages become too much of a negative.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    The other emerging trend that will effect hybridization is light-weighting - the costs for weight reduction appear to be much lower than originally anticipated (which reduces the relative economic attractiveness of hybridization). With ICE efficiency improvements and light weighting, the move to higher levels (Mild/Full hybrid) are being pushed well back. Think the micro hybrid will be around for a long, long time.

     

    Even the push to 48V is now losing momentum - it will get a start in luxury cars, where voltage stability is becoming a real problem, but this is not an issue for the bulk of the market.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Festein, I see your points and they are valid. Even the next "Yank Tank" from Ford is going to see a heavy shift towards aluminum.

     

    I'd love to see the latest bogeys from the automakers as far as what they are willing to pay to engineer mass out of their components. Going back a couple decades the answer was nothing. I bet that's no longer the case.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    Almost embarrassed to provide this link (a 1079 page document!!) but it's a comprehensive study into mass reduction opportunities and cost/saftey impact...

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1gP4TUY
    17 Oct 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Festein: Do you have the abridged paperback version handy?

     

    Or Cliffs Notes? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Festein, Thanks, haven't dug in yet. Winter is coming and it'll be a good read! ;-P
    18 Oct 2013, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    lol ... "winter is coming" ... Game of Thrones fan anyone?
    18 Oct 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    The bottom line is that a 10% mass reduction will improve fuel economy by 6.5% and will cost $1.50 per pound. - no degradation in safety.
    18 Oct 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    That's a good bottom line. FWIW we're trying to pare 1,500 to 2,000 pounds off the ePower drivetrain in the third-generation.
    18 Oct 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    This link [http://bit.ly/1fBVhOc] was recently posted here (thank you very much). I just read the short article, and thought the following paragraph was noteworthy. The article goes on to mention Axion:
    .........................

     

    Companies operating in the energy storage sector may be on the verge of an upswing, if they’re not already there. These small cap companies are attracting major investors for small business, which could help the industry as a whole grow much more quickly, through more widespread adoption of energy storage technologies. Here’s a short list of small cap companies operating in the renewable energy storage field.
    16 Oct 2013, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Oh brother, NS and their projects ...

     

    Norfolk Southern to begin testing natural gas locomotive
    By Chris Guss (trains.com)
    Published: October 16, 2013
    ALTOONA, Pa. – Norfolk Southern has started a project to convert one of its GP38-2 locomotives to burn compressed natural gas. The locomotive will be converted at the railroad’s Juniata Shops in Altoona. The railroad has been studying the concept for several years and has decided to move ahead with field testing, according to a source close to the railroad.

     

    The CNG conversion system, provided by Energy Conversions Inc., is the next generation of the system that Energy Conversions has in use on the Napa Valley Wine train in California. NS officials visited the Napa Valley Wine train to view the Alco FPA-4 locomotive equipped with an EMD prime mover and CNG conversion kit. The locomotive, No. 73, has been powered by 100 percent CNG since 2003.

     

    NS has selected GP38-2 No. 5053 for conversion to CNG. GP38AC No. 2847 will become the CNG tender and slug for No. 5053. It will receive a new “Admiral” cab and an eight-tube CNG storage rack mounted inside the long hood. Energy Conversions will supply the CNG storage system for the tender and CNG conversion system for the GP38-2. The system is designed to accommodate eight tubes made from 1-inch thick steel measuring 24-inches in diameter and 27-feet long. Along with storing the CNG, the tanks will provide the necessary ballast for the slug to add weight and tractive effort.

     

    The storage tanks on the slug are designed to provide enough CNG to give the locomotive the equivalent energy of 1,200-gallons of traditional diesel fuel. This is called diesel gallon equivalent and is used to rate the storage capacity needed for natural gas to equal the energy content of an equivalent amount of diesel fuel.
    Although designed to hold the longer tubes, the initial mother-slug set NS is constructing will use eight 22-foot-long tubes with 1.5-inch-thick steel and have a 1,000-gallon DGE. These tubes were selected due to their immediate availability from the supplier. Any future CNG-powered sets will use the 1-inch-thick and 27-foot-long tubes.

     

    Compressed natural gas has less energy, but is potentially more attractive for use in local or yard service applications with its lower cost compared with liquefied natural gas. Liquefied natural gas holds 2.4 times more energy per DGE compared with CNG and is more expensive to make due to the increased cost to liquefy the fuel.

     

    The railroad plans to have the CNG-powered set ready for testing in the first quarter of 2014.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    At first I was worried that this project would be a competitor to hybrid electric locos, but I think this is not something that would completely replace the NS fleet, as it would be more for diversifying fuel costs. Furthermore it isn't mutually exclusive with using the PbC. So correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't see the impact on the NS-999 project which appears to be progressing smoothly.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,

     

    Not sure that it does impact the NS-999, I was more or less commenting on their new project and timeline. Maybe the people that make the tanks will show a little bit more hustle than the people who were designing the racking systems.
    17 Oct 2013, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: I believe the NS-999 setup should be compatible with any genset they desire. Storage and the PbC attributes are attractive regardless of fuel selected.

     

    All NSC is really doing is lowering cost and pollution by generating electricity with a different fuel.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 06:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The nice thing about battery powered locomotives is that they don't care whether they're saving diesel fuel or natural gas because true conservation is true conservation. The economics of saving diesel fuel are better than the economics of saving natural gas, but savings are savings on a resource constrained planet. The same is true for series hybrid Class 8 trucks.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (785) | Send Message
     
    Buenos días Mr John.

     

    That's the correct answer (...but savings are savings on a resource constrained planet)

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    17 Oct 2013, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... I wouldn't fret too much about the project timeline because there is a lot of history for using NatGas on the rails. It is a well known & tested technology and doesn't qualify as "NEW". Note Figure 1 in the link below.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gneg0q

     

    The problem has always been the economics are only good within a very narrow window of price & supply. The fuel works well but requires extensive infrastructure, logistics, and consistent quality from the wellhead (a really tough problem) to make to work well. Where it might be most useful is in a project like Norfolk Southern's biofuel (which I'm guessing is going to come from KiOR in Columbus, Miss.) as an octane provider & fuel extender.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gneg0u

     

    Meanwhile, it is a resource that can be bid up beyond marginal good sense by the many other users & chemical producers that need little more than a pipeline and aren't concerned with quality as much.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gnedlh

     

    NatGas on the rail will have it's day. But, as pointed out I'm sure, battery assisted power will work with whatever the fuel might be. Trouble is battery power also has a history with the railroads and it has been a consistent failure so Axion's PbC is most definitely a NEW technology that must earn its place ... on an extended & skeptical timeline.
    17 Oct 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The Fall 2013 issue of Batteries International was just published.

     

    The story on my new job with ePower was printed on Page 8.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fF50Dy

     

    I guess I owe Mike Halls a big favor for the great positioning.

     

    My opinion column is here.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fF5327

     

    A modified version of the opinion column should be published here on SA within a couple hours. I can feel the love building already.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    Again, congrats on the new position, JP. And WOW on comments by Jay Bowman in the Batteries International story - "biggest challenge as 'finding a cost-effective battery that could stand up to regenerative braking currents that regularly top 200A and 900V.'"
    17 Oct 2013, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Interesting opinion article. I do have a question though. As I read it, your island nation scenario assumes that the power plants only produce as much power as is needed at night when the EVs are charging, so the sum total doesn't change. I thought one of the main arguments for nighttime charging was that the power companies are always running at a certain % more than is needed at any time? Therefore, in EV theory, it would be environmentally friendly to use this otherwise wasted extra production. So are you arguing that this isn't true, or that, as power usage would go up overnight for recharging, the power companies would increase output to maintain this over production at a steady rate? Also, the take home message I get from the VW chart is that EVs only reduce CO2 production for those who either disconnect themselves from the grid completely and generate all their home and EV power needs from renewable sources, or at least generate enough with battery storage to charge their EVs with at night. In those cases, there would be a net gain since there would either be a whole house reduction from the grid or the battery stored renewable energy would displace the amount of gas that the user would have burned during the day to run an ICE.
    So basically, no one should buy an EV unless they can charge it themselves, with self generated renewable energy that they store on site. IMHO
    17 Oct 2013, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The idea that somebody is generating unused electricity at night is a myth. The utilities turn off their peaking plants and throttle back their coal plants to cover minimum night-time demand. They don't spend money on fuel and then simply send the power to ground.

     

    If you put significant marginal load from EVs on the night-time grid the first thing the utilities will do is ramp coal generation and if demand gets high enough they'll start running peaking plants 24/7.
    17 Oct 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1215) | Send Message
     
    I have frequently read that wind energy is frequently wasted at night because of lack of demand. (I'm talking about utility scale wind mind you)
    17 Oct 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Wind energy is frequently curtailed at night, but that's because the demand isn't sufficient and utilities can only ramp base load plants down to a certain point without causing huge problems. The key point is that nobody is pouring fuel into generators at night to make electricity that gets sent to ground.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    The more dumb things you do the more things you can do to fix them. Seems to work for more entities than I'd hoped for.

     

    Hey we're generating uncompetitive power when we don't need it. Hey let's build batteries and time shift it. Great idea!
    17 Oct 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure they'll make it up on volume.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    No class I RR in North America is going to tie itself to one power unit type. This NS move makes perfect sense as a partner move with NS999. LNG & CNG are great reductions. They can make a significant dent in RR emissions.

     

    NS999 is absolute emission reduction. Zero is a great number to have for averaging down on anything.

     

    GE already has built an engine that meets projected reduced emissions and it goes into production I believe in the next three months. Railroads simply cannot afford to scrap their fleet however. Even if they had the money thanks to the taxpayer so doing would set them up for catastrophic fleet replacement down the line. FWIW, I expect the federal assistance will take the shape of tax credits rather than grants for outright purchase.

     

    As a possible sweetener, NS has several patents on the NS999 system. If they continue to have dandy production numbers I expect NS to flood the patent office with carloads (get it?) of additional applications. NS999 has the interesting potential of generating significant non-operating revenue for them. :>)

     

    Meanwhile I continue to wait on PC revenue. The "best" candidate for short term profits seems to me.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    10/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 355, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 2982470, AvTrSz: 8401
    Min. Pr: 0.1222, Max Pr: 0.1349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1277
    # Buys, Shares: 203 1298055, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1286
    # Sells, Shares: 142 1566415, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1270
    # Unkn, Shares: 10 119000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1283
    Buy:Sell 1:1.21 (43.5% "buys"), DlyShts 1063555 (35.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.94%

     

    There was one pre-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,978,470 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 35.71% to my 35.65%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,063,555 to 1,068,555 and the short percentage would be 35.82%.

     

    Regardless of my bearish interpretation of my experimental stuff, presented first, the traditional TA stuff discussed later, but only lightly, shows more potential for optimism. I can't trust it because it has been wrong so many times before. Maybe it's me, not the indicators.

     

    A fourth consecutive day wherein the 85% price did not drop! Can this become addicting? Let us hope so!

     

    Before EOD, I entered here “I'm thinking a small decline in daily short sales volume today. But with volume still looking pretty good, I could be off base. Another possibility is that short volume reduces a wee bit but short percentage is higher”.

     

    In the end, scenario two held sway. If the patterns are now repeating reliably, a much larger drop in daily short sales should occur tomorrow or the next day. And I also suspect trade volume and short percentage will reduce.

     

    What's leading me is not only my expectations, which could be biased by my new Axion PIPE-induced perma-bear status, but looking at things I think more indicative of sentiment than the traditional TA open, high, low and close, ... Specifically, I think VWAP is likely more reliable and the changes to it may be quite suggestive and, hopefully, reliable.

     

    Now, it could be just indicating a consolidation, but with PIPErs still very active today (ARCA in at the start, BTIG quite aggressive on the ask too, a weaker late brief pop before the final slide into the close ...), I suspect not.

     

    Here are some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

     

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%

     

    Note the trend in VWAP combined with buy percentage. With the buy percentage settling, thus far, slightly below “break even” and the VWAP increase beginning to flatten, and the buy percentage never having got as high as past moves up that exhibited strength (or even over 50%), this seems to me to be not exhibiting sustained strength.

     

    As usual, trying to keep this brief, details omitted here but available in the blog.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    Again, thanks for sharing you TA and data, HTL.
    17 Oct 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: We all add what we can - since I'm weak otherwise and have the option of doing this, I just always hope it's useful in the long run to others.

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Again, a pre-market trade: $0.1298x5K at 09:20:23

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: CANT $0.11x400K bid not on the queue pre-market.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (138) | Send Message
     
    700k in just 15 minutes.... WOW
    17 Oct 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    OK, now we are seeing what mildly positive minor news - and some media coverage - will do for us in the face of determined PIPErs. $.12 MIGHT hold.

     

    Absent the next step up in conditions (positive moderate news , ie, 999 rolls out and goes to work, we sell a few smallish PC projects - and the media notices), this is probably the best we can hope for until we pay off the notes.

     

    This rollercoaster has a flat wheel. Bumpy ride.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Early on unusual: trade size large 14588, VWAP $0.1266.

     

    CANT is back with their $0.11x400x bid, but the also appeared, for the first time, near the top of the ask (but only in the first few minutes as the tussle buried them) with $0.13x5K offer.

     

    Buy:sell is delayed to me by 15 minutes (i"m cheap), but it looks right now that sell predominates.

     

    09:52:27.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Through 09:44 buy:sell 1:1.4
    17 Oct 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    Wow, quick out of the gate this morning. Faster than a guano powered Batpod. Will we trade 1,000,000 shares in 30 minutes?
    17 Oct 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Close: 866,131 in 26 minutes.

     

    Looks like the "gotta get out now with profit" and "gotta get in now or miss it" folks finished their runs.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Oddities today: Average trades sizes for 10, 25, 50 and 100-day: 7229, 7473, 7019, 6263.

     

    Through 10:57. today were are at 14,146.

     

    It will likely drop a bit now that the rush is over, but we had a *lot* of abnormally large(r) trades in the early action.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    Anyone see/hear-of-anyone-seeing the NS999 on ASME's morning tour of NSC's Altoona shops yesterday?
    17 Oct 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Through 12:46:
    # Trds: 164, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 105100, Vol: 2119819, AvTrSz: 12926
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1299, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1239
    # Buys, Shares: 68 698951, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1245
    # Sells, Shares: 92 1374368, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1237
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 46500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1220
    Buy:Sell 1:1.97 (33.0% "buys")

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Lawsuits Seek Damages For Burned, Wasted Gas

     

    http://bit.ly/18pDRA3
    17 Oct 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    GM To Sell Impala Powered By Natural Gas

     

    http://bit.ly/16dLLhk
    17 Oct 2013, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    California Public Utilities Commission voting on energy storage mandate today.
    http://bit.ly/1aRXj7h

     

    If implemented, would require utilities to submit initial procurement proposals by March 1, 2014.
    17 Oct 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Makes for excellent entertainment. Watch/listen to the hearing here: http://bit.ly/1gOrqBl
    17 Oct 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Right now they are discussing the concerns of state first-responders regarding battery chemistry and safety.
    17 Oct 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    I believe the measure passed.
    17 Oct 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (96) | Send Message
     
    New flow battery http://bit.ly/182q2GA
    17 Oct 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Retired Aviator --- "And the drum I keep beating, that it seems very few development stage companies understand, is that it's important to have somebody full time contacting potential (accredited) equity investors, micro-cap funds, strategic partners, etc, to create 'bigger money's awareness of your stock to prevent it from becoming so "broken". A marketing dept for the equity, so to speak."
    .........................

     

    I would sure love to know if our new CFO Steven Graham has this kind of mindset, or TG after what's transpired since May. --- I know TG has stated he does not anticipate needing financing in 2014 unless it is for expanding manufacturing capacity, but I have a hard time accepting that at face value.
    17 Oct 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    "New Castle, PA-based Axion Power International Inc * (OTCMKTS:AXPW) doesn’t just create advanced batteries for hybrid vehicles, locomotives and heavy trucks. They also manufacture the PowerCube, a mobile energy storage unit that can deliver up to 1 MW of power for 30 minutes or 100 KW of power for 10 hours. The PowerCube uses Axion’s PbC batteries, which use activated carbon for the negative electrode, which gives the batteries a longer lifecycle."

     

    http://bit.ly/H3J1YS
    17 Oct 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    I'm hoping to see 1 MW in action soon. <Sigh>
    17 Oct 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Volvo:
    http://bit.ly/19MZ2um
    17 Oct 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    The advantage is that not only do you get to purchase a new battery in a few years, but you also get to purchase a trunk lid. I can just imagine the price, plus the dealer wouldn´t have in stock - when your battery is dead - the color that you need. I would end up with a mat red trunk on my shiny silver Volvo. Sounds like a good idea so far as Rube Goldberg ideas usually are. Wouldn't just having a battery be so much simpler.
    17 Oct 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    And what happens when the supercapacitor "boot lid" or intake plenum cover crumples in an accident?

     

    Potential for some lovely fireworks.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    so will we be allowed to finish above .13 today?
    17 Oct 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Best guess would be "no".

     

    Perhaps more to the point, "will we be allowed to finish above .12 today?"

     

    My best guess on that one would be "maybe".
    17 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    OK, LOL, make it "barely". Close at .1218.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    TB: I figured it might because we had some unusualy larger orders appear again today besides the 400K CANT bid @ $0.11.

     

    ATDF had 100K they wanted to fill appear off and on, NITE had 64K peeking through instead of their usual 5K size, 35K from another , etc.

     

    They were smart though and didn't push a lot of them up near the top until late-day weakness made it's appearance.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Daily dose of lithium ion hating: "On the quest for new materials, one must also bear in mind that they are only of industrial interest if they can be produced in large quantities at a low cost. However, amorphous and nanostructured materials offer a sufficient playground for innovation."

     

    Read more at: http://bit.ly/19N4RIh
    17 Oct 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    And on the now passed legislation in California:
    "In the decision, the state’s investor-owned utilities must begin buying a combined 200 megawatts of energy storage technology by 2014 and reaching 1.3 gigawatts (1,325 megawatts) by the end of 2020...
    The PUC decision is the culmination of California Assembly Bill 2514 (AB 2514) passed in 2010, the first state law that solely focuses on incorporating energy storage into the electrical grid."

     

    from: http://bit.ly/19NaohN

     

    So, just a hypothetical: Since there was little reason to suspect that the PUC would not move the 2010 bill forward, utilities would have begun looking for solutions to meet the mandate as early as 2010, and, having been in talks to order PC's from Axion, could not actually ink the orders until the PUC passed the mandate, or something to that effect, which is perhaps why TG is so confident in getting sales orders within some calendar schedule. It's possible the buyer only needed to wait for this ruling?
    17 Oct 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Are we not man(holes)? We are Hevo.

     

    NYC manhole covers to soon become wireless car battery chargers

     

    http://bit.ly/19Ndbrn
    17 Oct 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    And how will they bolt down those fancy electronic manhole covers in NYC to keep them from taking a walk to the Caribbean?
    17 Oct 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Actually I think that they are destined for a Far East destination that begins with C and ends with a $.

     

    Metal scavenging in Europe is reaching epidemic proportions.

     

    In England entire churches have been stripped of their lightning protection and roof covering overnight.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Yep, I've seen a few articles concerning manhole covers being stolen for their metal content. Starting to replace them with reinforced concrete covers.

     

    That will make for an interesting ride to work. Ugh boss, I'll be a little late!
    17 Oct 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    Imagine yourself as an aspiring musician and you are doing part time delivery work to make ends meet, it begins to rain heavily, you dutifully park your electric truck on the charging "manhole", you step out of your vehicle on to the wet street, and voila, you are a live conductor.
    18 Oct 2013, 03:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "live conductor"

     

    Dead ones don't do too many symphonies!

     

    <ducks flying shoes>

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2013, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... and just how long does an EV need to stop traffic to charge? Or is this an added benefit for the double parking crowd? I would think that putting a conductive additive into asphalt overlay would make more sense than this.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Might make sense if we relocate all the manhole covers into strategic locations. Oh and the systems under them. A good ground up idea for after the next war. Or is that underground up?
    17 Oct 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Why not weld them in place?

     

    Getting out a grinder to release the welded manhole cover takes minutes. It requires noise for the generator, noise from the grinder and loads of sparks etc, all of which attract attention. Every minute on site exposes the perps.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    AiB: I think some smokeless thermite cord would do the job quickly and quietly.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    They do it after checking the manhole when the POTUS is on parade. You could put a bunch of explosives in a manhole.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    That might be so but so far on my rock that is not an issue.

     

    Explosives of any type are verboten!

     

    In Bermuda we have not yet moved into the big time re recycling. We still crush thousands of vehicles every year and push them into the sea in a vain attempt to create more land.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    AiB: Yeah, but we were talking NYC where you can get anything you want for the right amount of $.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    "Explosives of any type are verboten!"

     

    Yeah, So are illicit drugs. How's that working out.

     

    "In Bermuda we have not yet moved into the big time re recycling. We still crush thousands of vehicles every year and push them into the sea in a vain attempt to create more land."

     

    You've got to be kidding me. Even with the value of metal now? Or is it too expensive to put on a boat and send to a appropriate destination?
    17 Oct 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    I can't see how pushing metals into a strong brine solution will create anything stable.

     

    Is there a way the salt water won't break down that stuff?

     

    Probably attracts sharks too, which are sensitive to electric currents in the water. Various metals in a salt solution should make currents due to potential differences?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Drugs continue to be a problem on my rock. Marijuana use may be legalized at some point as the islands authorities consider the income potential.

     

    Shipping a 20 ft container, empty, to NJ is over $1k.
    No crushers on island.
    Vehicles, rubble etc, white goods and flyash mixed with concrete are all dumped into the sea as there is no other place for them.
    18 Oct 2013, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Details of the PIPE out. Prospectus says they will run out of money in Q1 2014, not Q3.
    "We believe that the available funds at March 31, 2013, and including the net proceeds from our May 8, 2013 issue of $9 million in senior convertible
    notes and $1 million in subordinated convertible notes plus internally generated funds from products sales will provide sufficient financial resources to fund our
    operations, working capital, and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2014.

     

    Subsequent sources of outside funding will be required to fund the Company’s working capital, capital expenditures and rate operations beyond the first
    quarter of 2014. "
    17 Oct 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    OK, clear enough. TG will be looking for more funding about... Now.

     

    Of course, hard to pin down a deal with the current deal sitting on top of you like a ton of toxic waste...

     

    I wonder if this anticipates any cash expenditures to pay out PIPE notes or penalties...

     

    No, I guess not.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    They state they will make all payments in stock. Thankfully, the PIPErs cannot maintain a net short position.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Well at least we have a CFO to handle this problem.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    This problem is a done deal. We now have a (very expensive) CFO to handle the NEXT round of funding (now coming 6 months earlier than expected).

     

    Oops. I wonder what happened to the Q3 prediction? What happened to 6 months worth of cash burn (call it $8 million) in "significant sales"?

     

    I'm smelling another broken promise from TG here (aside from the Q3 prediction, that one's already busted)...

     

    Also, I'm STILL wondering what sort of news will flow from the NSC dog and pony show at the ASME convention. Frankly, this reminds me mightily of the !!!squirrel!!! distraction with the BMW supplier negotiations (and whatever happened to those) that were SO important... Then we found out that BMW was no longer a factor for Axion for the next several years.

     

    Very puzzling sitrep.
    17 Oct 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The only way they run out of money sooner is if they have to spend more money responding to customers by filling orders.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    ISTM that this may be a dead horse when that time comes *if* "significant sales" by next CC comes to fruition.

     

    Debatable, of course, since we don't know what's "significant".

     

    And we should remember that JP has taught us that regardless of what as-yet unrealized revenues may be on the horizon, you always include such clauses when what's in-hand doesn't go beyond a year(?).

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering if this reflects the worst case possibility where the PIPErs have to be paid in cash due to a failure in liquidity based on the contract? If not the Q3 timing remains intact.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... So one would think and any sane shareholder would want the situation to be thus. Still, sale or no sale coming soon, we now a topic upon which to ponder ... or pound.

     

    What was that thing that happened way back .... yesterday? Oh, maybe the day before(?) ... ah! It was so far in the past Mr. Market will never remember as will, most likely ourselves. Good News has a very short shelf life.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    We have a (highly paid, did I mention that before?) new and very expert CFO who just might have taken a look at the earlier projections (I believe TG signed off on those) and decided they need to make a few changes to the projections.

     

    Maybe we are just seeing "real" vs "TG's universe"?
    17 Oct 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    This is the exact same language that was in the S-1 from May. I have to go through the rest of the document to see what has changed but this isn't new or a change from before.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Mrholty: That would make sense.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Disappointing. Just another exploded TG promise. Poo.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Is it possible that the new disclosure came about since we flirted with 10 cents - thus cash would burn much quicker if Axion was forced to make some PIPE payments in cash?
    17 Oct 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    It's not new disclosure. It is old disclosure that has been superseded by subsequent SEC filings.

     

    The only thing that's changed is a spit ball estimate of the maximum number of shares issuable to clear the pipes, which was limited by provisions of the corporate charter until the amendment was approved at the recent stockholders meeting.
    17 Oct 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    So all this talk about limited cash runway is people tripping over shadows?

     

    Heck, I would accept an increased cash burn if that money was going into inventory that was expected to be turned over shortly.

     

    Outside of 20k/mo (for the new cfo) I don't see why our burn would change very much unless TG has something good cooking, maybe that why his statements seems to suggest a November surprise.
    17 Oct 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    My latest was just published.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    To have lost 6 month in runway there are only a few possibilities that immediately come to mind (in no particular order):
    1.) TG is a charlatan
    2.) The PIPEists have indicated that future payments will likely be in cash not stock as they plan to drive sub 10
    3.) They need to expand production

     

    Place your bets ladies and gentlemen
    17 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    anthlj: I buy the list, except I keep coming back to TG's promise about substantial sales. JP just alluded to them as the probable (I'm hesitant to say "...the only way...") reason for the runway turning into a helipad (wait, I believe I used that picture in an earlier comment a week ago, but anyway). Circling back to TG's promise, wouldn't they have INCLUDED that scenario and its obvious costs (his promise seemed so SINCERE this time) in the estimate that yielded a 6 month runway? Perhaps not, but it would seem the two predictions should have more in common than we are seeing...

     

    Still, I think your 3 item list covers most of the bases.

     

    Perhaps this is a compounding of the two promises, where significant sales will make TG's other prediction to raise money the next time to increase production capacity to meet sales demand rather than just keep the lights on in the phone booth.

     

    Place your bets, indeed.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    #3 sounds very plausible given TG's statements about the next raise being for production, and significant sales to speak of. He must have had a good idea when new capital would be required.

     

    Unless he's a charlatan of course.
    17 Oct 2013, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    EDIT: In (2) above I should have typed 'indicated by their behavior in the market that future payments will likely be in cash....'

     

    I did not mean to imply that they gave him a call to foretell the deed.

     

    Personally, I think this (2) scenario the more probable. $4-6M would seem like rather a lot to devote to increased production, even if they put in a new line.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I believe we once estimated a new line's cost at $10mm.

     

    Also, when are the convertible notes going to be paid off? Q1 2014? How is TG going to come up with funding that will dovetail that tight with something like the convertibles?

     

    LOL, is 150 million more shares going to be enough?
    17 Oct 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    TB: IIRC, JP's last estimates were a "few million".

     

    This jibes with my memory long ago of the stuff having been engineered and refined and now the supplier could supply them in "cookie cutter" fashion. That reduced the lead-time as well as cost substantially.

     

    If my memory is correct, the hit to expand capacity will be much less than ~$10MM/line. I'm sure there will be some ancillary costs, so I would figure a "few $MM plus ... 10%"?

     

    Add a little cushion for miscellaneous ...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Maybe you're right, HTL. I might have been thinking of plans to max out their available space (multiple lines, perhaps 3?).

     

    Still, 6 months worth of cash at the current rate of burn is a considerable sum, more like $6-8 million than $3 million.

     

    And as of the last report, they still had a considerable WIP stockpile of carbon sheeting and electrodes (something close to $1million?).

     

    If these sorts of things are brewing, we NEED an update. Soon. Otherwise, I see just the darker alternatives.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    4.) Buyout of TG's employment contract if "significant" sales fail to occur before the next cc.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    We didn't lose 5 months. JPs estimate was Q3 of 2014 based on what we know of burn if everything stays consistent. The S1 filed in May stated Q1 2014 just as it does today.

     

    Nothingburger...
    17 Oct 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    I'd reduce this by about twenty percent since the design is done. Don't know about component cost increases though. Depends on capacity utilization in the industry. This can make a big difference.

     

    " Production Capacity Axion's electrode fabrication line was designed to produce enough electrodes for about 150 batteries per shift. While Axion has not disclosed its cost of building and installing the production line, news stories and financial statement disclosures lead me to believe an estimated cost of $3 million per line is reasonable. By the time you account for efficiency differences in a multi-shift operation, I'd estimate the maximum capacity of the single electrode fabrication line at 350 batteries per day, which is adequate to support testing and evaluation activities, but inadequate for commercial sales. When demand for PbC batteries increases, Axion will need up to $50 million in additional capital to expand its electrode fabrication capacity from 350 to 3,500 PbC batteries per day."

     

    http://bit.ly/U8rUYc
    17 Oct 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Thanks mrholty. So, does this mean we still believe TG's promise, rather than the S1? And we can quit getting excited at the prospect of a big buildout of electrode lines to meet big orders?
    17 Oct 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    As I recall, the old line cost estimates were all pre-carbon sheeting automation...

     

    I would expect the new line cost to go up rather than down (more capital intensive setup, vs a lot more manual labor intensive with the earlier line design).

     

    It would be nice to get an update, though.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... I can't speak for anyone else but I'm one that tends to believe what I see on paper more than what I hear. This could be just a lazy mistake or oversight or some legalize type reason that would make no sense to me type thingy. It could be some sort of self inflicted wounded attempt at UPOD. It really makes no difference. This is an October document to a Regulator. SOP.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Speak for yourself, YOU need an update. You already seek "darker alternatives".

     

    I find all of this idle speculation without merit.

     

    Fleet
    17 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, Fleet, but it's "see" not "seek".

     

    Otherwise, its you speaking for me, not the reverse.
    17 Oct 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Fleet: One of the things we value here is "civilized" discourse regardless of POV, disagreement, bearish or bullish.

     

    If you would honor that in all forms, especially avoiding negative personal characterizations and implications, I think all would appreciate it and welcome your thoughts.

     

    The sad fact is all of us, probably (well a couple exceptions I'm sure), who have been long-term bullish, have been thus far disappointed in quite a few ways in quite a few areas.

     

    The long-term effect is as one would expect.

     

    I think most of us believe that it is the different views and thoughts that add real value here.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2013, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    TB and HTL,

     

    Yesterday, I got the tone of my comment completely wrong and I apologize full stop. I had a point, but, clearly, could not make one with my foot in my mouth.

     

    I appreciate this venue to learn about the stock and apologize again for getting it wrong.

     

    Fleet
    18 Oct 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Fleet: Well, now you've become an official member, with the rest of us who have, and still do sometimes, gnaw our toenails the old fashioned way. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    I think 2) would only be applicable if the PIPE'ers were overtly trying to break the stock and perhaps force the company into some type of liquidation. With the price and volume behaviour, I do not see 2) as a high probability.

     

    Actually 1) and 2) are really the same, since the only way 2) happens is if 1) has occurred.

     

    So let's hope for 3)!

     

    Finally: We've traded over 11 milion shares this week at a VWAP north of 12.50. I think we would have had a sub .10 stock *already* if the PIPE'ers wanted it. The tape seems to suggest this isn't the case. And the price/volume behaviour this week is promising.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    This should not be a surprise to anyone. It was in writing AXPW would need more money in '14. Just a matter of when.

     

    Anyway, this is a trend I have noted in bio-tech and other small caps ... they are not waiting til the 11th hour, they are doing financing well ahead of when they need it. In some cases a couple of years.
    Since '08 credit mkts. froze and then the latest Washington fiasco, if they got to have money get it while someone is willing to do it.

     

    TG waited till the 11 1/2 hour the last time.....he's not pushing it that far now. Besides, the damage is already done, so might as well do it and get it over sooner rather than later..

     

    To me, it's not that they raise money it is to Who? and the terms.

     

    I think the PIPERS had a clause that if further financing was needed they were to be included ?
    17 Oct 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Whooooah, LT!

     

    "I think the PIPERS had a clause that if further financing was needed they were to be included ?"

     

    Now, wouldn't THAT be something!
    17 Oct 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Yes, here is one of the places where the document is outdated:

     

    On page 17 it states:
    "We and others believe that the fastest, and least expensive, method of reducing CO2 emissions from an internal combustion engine vehicle is to equip the vehicle with stop-start technology." ...

     

    "The clock is running for the US and European automotive manufacturers as they seek to comply with upcoming governmental regulations and consumer expectations for increased miles per gallon. European OEM’s in particular have made commitments to fleet wide adoption of hybridization for their future manufactured vehicles. This commitment was strongly influenced by European Union (EU) legislation that requires reductions in CO2 emissions for all new passenger vehicle production in Europe beginning in 2012. In most cases 2012 requirements that 65% of the fleet (average) is required to reduce CO2 emissions to 130 grams per kilometer, have been met by the OEM’s because their smaller engine cars brought the fleet average down to the required level. It will be far more difficult going forward as the required average percentage for the fleet ratchets up to 75% in 2013, 80% in 2014 and a full 100% (average) in 2015. Failure to comply with the regulation will result in a fine based on the number of grams of CO2 that were emitted above the 130 gram limit. "

     

    However, we now know that the EU is actively renegotiating the limits which will remove time pressure to adopt start/stop technology.

     

    The prospectus also provides an updated estimate of the maximum number of shares required to be issued due to the PIPE. It's now 126,658,495.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Until the regulations are changed, the prospectus disclosure is an accurate statement. The fact that companies are lobbying for change and focused primarily on 2020 isn't even interesting.

     

    The updated maximum share issuance estimate seems high to me, but that's what I'd ordinarily expect in a registration statement.

     

    In connection with the first four payments, Axion issued a total of 39,893,453 shares. With six payments left including the last one to the subordinated group, I have a hard time believing that 126.6 million shares will be needed, unless the estimate also includes the warrant shares.

     

    Frankly it is what it is and it's not worth my time to dig through the documents for more detail. After all, I have a day job now ;-)
    17 Oct 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    What's changed is the level of uncertainty. In the past, the EU had these regulations written and approved. Now they are being renegotiated. That raises uncertainty and I argue that increased uncertainty is related to increased risk.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    If I'm writing a disclosure document and describing extant regulation that's all I talk about. Newspaper stories are rarely if ever a basis for risk disclosure.
    17 Oct 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • shaggydude4hire
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Why is # 3 even plausible at this time? At what capacity are we utilizing the lines currently, and what type of volumes are required for the need to expand production capacity? I feel as though we'd drop the battery contract with East Penn, and move to multiple shifts to produce PbCs previous to an expansion.
    17 Oct 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    I repeat - when you are expanding production to meet orders = cash flow - debt is often the preferred way to do so

     

    You do not need to always finance with diluting shares

     

    Also agree LT that a reasoned finance man does not wait until the eleventh hour plus to finalize his financing. Well intentioned or not TG and former CFO absolutely blew that last round. I suspect both in "over their heads" and outside their comfort zones
    17 Oct 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    The biggest losses in my life were in small companies that borrowed money for capital expansion instead of selling equity. Premature debt is the number one cause of bankruptcies that leave stockholders with an empty bag. A123, Ener1, Beacon, C&D and Exide all thought they could borrow money instead of selling stock and they all crumbled under the weight.

     

    I've been through the drill with enough clients and seen it often enough in other small companies that I've developed a cardinal rule I will not vary from.

     

    – "Any company that is big enough to finance its expansion with debt instead of equity is too big to have me as a stockholder."

     

    Just saying.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I think this is an important point you raise. The companies you listed I am certain all had reasonably talented people leading them. They all had communication staff, sales forces, and other people in support of their strategy and decisions. The bottom line, though, is they are gone. Not coming back.

     

    Axion and its leadership are not perfect and have made mistakes, but they continue to move forward. I believe they are undervalued by the market so as shares are available at attractive prices I will buy. I simply don't see this company as likely to turn out the lights like those others.

     

    Thank you for the reminder about former companies.

     

    Fleet
    17 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    The date of the prospectus that Patrick seems to be quoting is 8-15-13, the same date TG made the following statements: --- "I never promised orders on a timetable basis before, but, I will predict that we will have significant orders to talk about on our next earning call." --- AND... "I expect to report a combination of confirmed orders and initial sales in these markets before our next quarterly earnings call in mid November."

     

    TG reaffirmed his predictions at the recent shareholders meeting, along with his belief he does not anticipate needing financing in 2014 except to expand manufacturing capacity. I'm willing to give him until the next cc to see if he delivers on the sales/order announcements, and what he says about future financing needs. I don't really see that anything significant has changed since the prospectus of 8-15-13, but I am concerned about each passing day that goes by without even a single announcement.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    When a document like an S-1 is refiled with the SEC for the purpose of increasing the number of shares registered, it never gets the kind of scrub down attention to detail of a new filing.

     

    The Form S-1 was originally filed with the SEC in May of this year and the disclosure pre-dates the last Form 10-Q. All SEC filings after the original filing date have been incorporated by reference.

     

    The prospectus specifically states that "The Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations for the periods ended December 31, 2012 and June 30, 2013 are hereby incorporated by reference in their entirety from the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, filed with the SEC on March 22, 2013 and its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, filed with the SEC on August 14, 2013, respectively."

     

    The controlling disclosure is the disclosure in the last Form 10-Q. A gratuitous conflicting reference in the description of the notes does not trump the MD&A.

     

    If the disclosure changes in the next Form 10-Q we will have something to dissect. Until the most current disclosure changes we can't assume that old language somehow supersedes newer disclosure.

     

    You're jumping at shadows guys.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... If the 10-Q is the control document then I'm good. I can't say I'm a big fan of reading currently published outdated information but the legal and accepted practices are what they are. I still expect a lot of forthcoming concern eating into my reading time.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    That particular disclosure does not belong in the Description of Notes in the first place. Liquidity and capital resources discussions belong in MD&A, not descriptions of securities.

     

    I don't know how why or when that particular language made it into the original S-1, but it remains unchanged in the newer filing version. I can't and won't make excuses for anybody else, but I know from experience that when you live with a document long enough you know what it's supposed to say whether it actually says it or not.

     

    I always try to surround myself with a couple pairs of fresh eyes to read major documents (and blogs) before I release them. I've had too many instances in my life where I found myself asking "where the hell did that come from?" when somebody asked a question about something I didn't remember writing.
    17 Oct 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    What does that say about the competence of the people that generated the document? I am rapidly losing confidence in this companies ability to communicate correct information.
    17 Oct 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Class Action Lawsuit Against BMW for Defective Auto Start Stop System

     

    "The problem that is reported by many drivers is that the vehicle either never starts or kicks into the neutral gear if it starts. Both situations can create a serious unsafe situation on the road. In addition, the misfiring and transmission related problems cause serious damage to the engine and the transmission.

     

    What did BMW do thus fur to address this issue? In almost all cases, the service department has either reported “could not duplicate problem” on the repair documents or has disconnected the system altogether. Yes, the consumers have paid $3,000 to $4,000 for the feature that the company has initially ignored and later just disconnected and told the drivers not to use."

     

    http://bit.ly/1d0sdyZ

     

    Mas.

     

    http://bit.ly/1d0sdz1
    17 Oct 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    My initial concern is that this may not bode well for Axion. Is BMW going to lose credibility in start/stop, and what kind of backing are they willing to give Axion and their new system in the public forum? Years away, but nonetheless, I wonder.

     

    Edit: OTOH, it suggests to BMW that they need to get their a**es moving on an acceptable solution.

     

    G
    17 Oct 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >isthisonebetter ... You'll get a clue that BMW is maybe worried about their engineering reputation, maybe worried about customer sentiment or maybe serious about fixing the problem and incorporating Axion into that solution when there is visible progress on the manufacturing partnership. Ink on paper would be better, but I'd take some visibility ... like, say, someone beside Axion making mention of it.

     

    I don't care if anyone names Axion or not. Just an outline of the road forward would tell me what I want to know.
    17 Oct 2013, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    "like, say, someone beside Axion making mention of it." Can I get an amen ... amen.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    I hope it's the latter of your suggestions.

     

    G
    17 Oct 2013, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    itb,

     

    BMW is one (of many) that is working with Axion. If anything, this is further confirmation that LAB batteries can't do the job.

     

    However, even if BMW takes longer that presumed (which is hard to fathom since most here now talk about "years away") I'd think that somebody steps up eventually before mid decade.

     

    Most here fear that Axion cash-flow is the real issue - not their "mousetrap" integrity - which by all accounts is ready for the SHOW. But the SHOW won't start until the OEM and regulators want it to.
    18 Oct 2013, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    Sadly, the lawyers are spinning it as a "cause damage to the engine" situation to maximize potential damages. I hope that S/S technology doesn't get that false rap. Nothing would kill potential sales faster than consumers worrying that their 10-20% gas saving might cost them an engine in the long run.

     

    I have many friends who only use premium gas on their vehicles (old Camrys and Accords) that don't need it since they suffer from this type of irrational fear and likely will have paid thousands extra in fuel over the 7-10 years they keep their cars.
    18 Oct 2013, 01:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    And of course, a good "amen" requires a follow-up.

     

    http://bit.ly/18rWBim

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2013, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    I'm calling the producers of the Shark Tank, I'd think Mark Cuban would be on board for a ten mill spot.

     

    I'll bet my whole position that axion will be in a BMW before the class action suit is settled.

     

    Public perception is a very huge motivator for a company like BMW.
    If anyone is willing to come to canada to claim the bet then ill honor it.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Ummm I might renag on that bet now that I actually read the lawsuit, has zero to do about the battery.
    17 Oct 2013, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    10/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 254, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 105100, Vol: 3097833, AvTrSz: 12196
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1299, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1237
    # Buys, Shares: 107 1024628, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1244
    # Sells, Shares: 143 2026705, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1234
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 46500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1220
    Buy:Sell 1:1.98 (33.1% "buys"), DlyShts 616357 (19.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.41%

     

    I would encourage folks with an interest to look at my inflection-point calculation charts, especially the test versions. On the test versions the 25 through 200-day periods told us several days in advance that this pop was not sustainable. This surprised me because I had considered them less useful (maybe even useless?) in the environment of PIPErs. In retrospect, maybe they warranted more faith than I gave them.

     

    ARRRGH! I know it's not national “Talk Like A Pirate Week”, but ARRRGH! We ended our four-day streak of the 85% price holding unchanged today! Oh well, four consecutive days is probably the best we should have hoped for. It does have the benefit of not becoming addicting, which I wondered about yesterday.

     

    Lot's of blather in today's post. I'll omit it here.

     

    For those with an interest, the gory details are in my blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Oct 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    http://nyti.ms/H7we6N

     

    Arizona Utility Tries Storing Solar Energy for Use in the Dark
    18 Oct 2013, 06:23 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    When many of your neighbors are BK you've got some leverage. Throw in a million USD to seal the deal. Good ole politics.

     

    Autocracy? Germany’s Merkel fights corruption accusations following massive BMW donation

     

    http://bit.ly/H7ESlF
    18 Oct 2013, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    "Tremors" The cult movie for the intellectual elite.

     

    I don't want to talk about it. :>)
    18 Oct 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    While I hate to disagree VW, I think "Boondocks Saints" and "Dogma" have more appeal to the truly effete.
    18 Oct 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    I remember a really nasty brand of tequila that had a motto across the bottom of the label that asked the piercing question: "Have you bitten the worm?"

     

    With Tremors, you turn the question around.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    tb, you are absolutely correct.

     

    JP is offering up his pieces but they don't have man-eating worms. At least not while those men are alive.

     

    We win. :>)

     

    In a previous lifetime the Pink Panther series sat atop the pile. In my advanced years I have seen the light, and graduated to "Tremors", and like Jim Morrison the cream has risen to the top.

     

    a'hem.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    About the BMW lawsuit, seems to me that it behooves BMW to find a solution sooner rather than later. If Axion is the solution, i think there is a greater chance that BMW will initiate it sooner rather than later. The lawsuit might actually be a good thing for Axionistas!
    18 Oct 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Definitely.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Agree.
    18 Oct 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    If AXPW can close above 0.13 today would be very bullish. Momentum traders will provide buyer support.
    18 Oct 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    If Axion can announce a BMW production contract today, it would be very bullish.
    18 Oct 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    Your comment reminds me how incredibly lucrative AXPW could be. Imagine if BMW wanted to buy hundreds of thousands of batteries growing to millions a year. The market cap would immediately need to correct, well, a lot.
    18 Oct 2013, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    I believe that TG's statement about imminent sales orders and the accelerated cash burn schedule all point to rapidly growing PbC sales into 2014.
    18 Oct 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    2013 would be better.

     

    I wonder what the cost and time frame might be to build a 1MW Power Cube?

     

    "Have Cube, will travel", sounds like the beginning of a great business model!
    18 Oct 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    One thing I have trouble understanding is that many times energy storage is rated in "Watts". However, a "Watt" is only operational over one "second". If you needed 1MW all night (10 hrs), then you would need 10,000 KWh (1MW * 10 hrs) or 36 GW (cumulative over that period).

     

    10000 Kwh = 10 powercubes = ____ batteries anybody know? JP?
    18 Oct 2013, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like we've got ourselves a Convoy!
    18 Oct 2013, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    PY
    One Cube = 1/2 mWh
    18 Oct 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Dirtdauber
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Patrick,
    Hope this can help. Electrical energy storage devices are rated by both the rate at which the storage device can deliver the energy, and the amount of energy it can deliver, at that rate. The rate is measured in Watts and its multiples, kilo (1000) Watts, mega (1,000,000) Watts, etc. The amount of energy a device can deliver is rated in Watt-hours (Watts multiplied by the number of hours), and its multiples.

     

    It is not correct to say that "a Watt is only operational over 1 second". It is also not correct to multiply Watts by Watt hours and get Watts or any multiple of Watts.

     

    On their web site, Axion states: "The PowerCubeTM is a highly mobile energy storage system that can be configured to deliver up to 1 MW of power for 30 minutes or 100 KW of power for 10 hours." So, the energy rating (MWh) of the PC is dependent on the rate (power measured in MW) at which it is discharged, and you need to use both numbers to really understand what the unit can actually do. Thus, the PC's batteries can support 1 MW / 0.5 MWh or 0.1 MW / 1.0 MWh, depending on whether the inverters, switches, ventilation, wiring, controllers, etc., in the box will support the higher Wattage loads.

     

    IIRC, the PC at New Castle has 640 batteries.
    18 Oct 2013, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (985) | Send Message
     
    First of all it is written the definition that a "Watt" is a Joule per second so a more logical way to define the amount of available energy, irrespective of discharge rate, would be to say we need a ____ GigaJoule system.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    OT --- Dirty mind anybody? :-)

     

    From Forbes: --- Sleep 'Detoxes' The Brain, New Research Suggests

     

    "...researchers discovered that a waste-draining system they call the “glymphatic system” is ten times more active during sleep than while awake. This nocturnal cleaning system removes proteins called amyloid-beta, which accumulate into the plaques that contribute to Alzheimer’s disease and dementia."

     

    http://onforb.es/H1Evd2
    18 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I need a LOT of sleep, then....
    18 Oct 2013, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    From NS: --- "We’re developing a unique expertise that is not out there on the market currently,” Thelen said. “The NS 999 patent will give us the ability to manufacture these battery locomotives and to develop it into a business if we want to.”
    .........................

     

    If NS chooses not to develop this into a business, would it be something Axion would want to consider?
    18 Oct 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    If it makes sense NSC will want it for itself and as an offering for others. After all they rebuild locos for others now. When you have facilities and staffing you have to keep them busy or they cost too much.
    18 Oct 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Manufacturing batteries for locomotives requires one skill set. Building locomotives requires an entirely different skill set. I don't think the two would mix well.
    18 Oct 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • bwarnecke
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    all of the hand wringing hinges on one thing....one company of critical mass moving ahead with the Pbc technology. For my money the "potential" market(s) are simply too large to ignore. Take for a moment NS, each switcher would need 860 batteries, each OTR would employ 1600 batteries. The NS fleet contains approximately 1700 switchers and 1700 OTRs which equates to a mkt. potential of 1.5 billion. Of course not all units are candidates so let's assume a 10% penetration, this equates to 150 million in revenue divided by 200 million shares for 75c/share in rev. multiplied by the factor of your choice. NS said this could be a business for them so multiply the above by the US fleet of switchers and OTRs!

     

    Then there is little old ePower...run the same exercise for 100 trucks or 1000 trucks times 56 batteries times $350/battery times a 15% margin. Go bigger if you want, IF epower's technology works their market will be measured in 10s of thousands, the numbers get insane. Maybe the reason AXPW has pushed BMW off the radar is because of the above??? We will not know until this mysterious significant revenue announcement. If it is indeed a company with critical mass and a reputation to go along with it we should be good. If it is not then it is a continued slow demise from 10c to a penny. Each person on this site has to decide which way it is going to go, for me the numbers are too big to ignore. The irony in a little stinkin company in PA finding a solution in lead and carbon and a little stinkin company in KY finding a solution to hybrid trucks when our omniscient government has spent billions tilting at windmills is too delicious not to take a bite of this apple. I suggest everyone take a break from this blog until something of substance does materialize.
    18 Oct 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    bwarnnecke, We face the gamblers dilemma:
    The less you bet, the more you lose when you win.

     

    If we win, don't expect the Government to be happy. It's not their solution and they didn't pay for it.
    18 Oct 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    That won't stop the government from taking credit for the inevitable win. They did, after all, support Axion with a small earmark contract and a $150,000 SBIR grant.
    18 Oct 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    JP: Besides that, they count on short memories and will probably claim it was part of their overall strategy to cause competition among competing technologies, only small part of which was Li-ion (if they mention it at all).

     

    And they won't mention manufacturing facilities and failures at all.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2353) | Send Message
     
    bw,

     

    I like the NS idea and it may come through after 5+ years. EPower however has less money than Axion so I'm not sure they will be a shining knight. Axion may actually even grow into their big boy pants before then but at this point who knows. Getting cash by next Spring will be challenging enough.
    19 Oct 2013, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
     
    It makes me think back with anger to the episode with Exide where the government granted Exide 34millions for its work with Axion as part of the initial Obama Stimulus. We wouldn't be in this mess fighting pipers if we had had access to that money...

     

    No wonder even TG, who seems to be a calm character, can not hide his disdain for Exide!
    19 Oct 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    I have often wondered if Exide was looking for and possibly got some level of access to the work Axion had done with carbon additives to the NAM. This all done in some sly way like working with the PbC data contrasted against and data Axion had on prior work done with carbon additives. Wouldn't surprise me but I'll never know.

     

    One must be very careful.
    19 Oct 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, iindelco, though my experience has been that one cannot be careful enough after going into business with unethical people. I suppose the time to be careful is prior to entering the arrangement.
    19 Oct 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >WayneinOregon ... It's a little early to consider whether Norfolk will or won't develop the BP4 into a commercial product. It could well be that the company might hold the technology for itself for as long as they can for that competitive edge. I think this unlikely for more than a few years and it would be good (not explosive, wonderful, superb, outstanding and on and on) for Axion. Just really good business and better than anything experienced to-date.

     

    The first thing Norfolk & we need to find out is if the damn thing works. A lot of answers will come from figuring this one question out. Failure here, depending on how it happens, would be in the range of not too bad (but bad) to abject failure of Axion's technology in this industry. The jury is still out on this and the deliberation time is driving me nuts.
    18 Oct 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    It would be delightful to learn for certain which, if any, of NSC's "partners" in the NS999 project has been slow to deliver. Personally, racking delays as suggested by TG is quite hard to believe. PSU strikes me as a more likely candidate. The Professor(s) need to maintain research fund flow and haven't been able to develop an alternative to NSC deep pockets.
    18 Oct 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure how much experience the company that was chosen to do the racking system has with mobile apps that have the types of loading that will occur on the NS999. Could be when they collected data from a yard switcher and mimicked some of the required loading in a lab setting their racks have not held up. A possibility, if in fact the hold-up is racking.
    18 Oct 2013, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... The racking might have been (could be) the problem area as the end of the line trying to deal with a completely different problem driving the delay. Always easiest to blame the most helpless guy at the bottom of the foodchain.

     

    >D-inv ... I find your conclusion as pure shinola, but that is pretty much standard fare.
    18 Oct 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    I´m trying to be positive thinking that NS is taking its time to ensure against failures, i.e. fires and is setting itself up for success.
    18 Oct 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Having designed/built/debugged many special machines on the electrical side and having launched many programs, I can tell you that the guys upstream from my efforts were never late and I was always late! ;)
    18 Oct 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... Having spent more than a few years of being the design engineer on-site, I've spent more than my fair share of time correcting things on the fly that were my fault in the first place. So many people were in the habit of building things just the way the documentation & plans directed. I should have known better than to let them.
    18 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Oh, Is that what that Rev. level box is for on the drawing? Optimization? :))
    18 Oct 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    ">D-inv ... I find your conclusion as pure shinola, but that is pretty much standard fare."

     

    :-) Mutual love, DR? Isn't life grand!
    18 Oct 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    iind ... Racking is certainly a possible "culprit" for delay in completion of the NS999. BUT, history gives real pause in accepting that explanation. April 26, 2012 Axion PR disclosing order of PbCs by NSC included the statement, "The total purchase order will be shipped and deployed in the next 90 – 120 days." But, shipment was not requested until late December 2012. Now, 42 weeks later, the NS999 remains out of sight (but not out of mind).

     

    It could be NSC elected to choose an untested supplier of racking for the project, but I find that doubtful. NSC has been in the RR business plenty long enough to have confronted prior need for mobile racking structures capable of withstanding the shocks associated with starting and stopping of trains. It could be that more than one subcontractor on the project was late. Slippage of delivery from something less than 90 days to seven months might have been due in part to racking delays but I just do not buy that explanation for slippage in deployment from 120 days to 17 months.
    18 Oct 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    I agree with the above. Outide of the racking vendor there probably aren't many vendors that would drive a delay this long. And the racking vendor is going to build to spec what NS wants.

     

    If the original racking design fell apart on the test loco then they would rebuild it but it shouldn't take too long. The delay is on NS but like DRich said the guy upstream writing the check is always ontime and right.
    18 Oct 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I agree wholly. I was very vocal here in the recent past about how mismanaged the program would have to have been given the timing you laid out between when the battery decision was made and how long it's taken to get something as easy as racking nailed down. I'd have been fired immediately for such a blunder even as a junior engineer. Something smells fishy but perhaps only because we're guessing with little for hard facts.
    18 Oct 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Let's not overlook the possible intentional delays. Recall I had one thought that they didn't request shipment of our batteries until the Fed's coughed up more grant money. My thought was that might have been related.

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if some similar stuff is playing out here.

     

    We also considered the possibility of scheduling shop time. They are doing other work as well.

     

    They are not in the same hurry that we are. They have time and the money they have tied up is not all that much to them and is tax deductible too.

     

    I think they just are going at their own pace with their own agenda and if they have any concern it is only to roll it out when they said they would and get it right this time.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    After the spectacularly public failure of the original NS 999, I have to believe that word came down from heaven that there might be floggings and beheadings in connection with work on the second generation, but there would be no failures.

     

    When I made cabinets during college it didn't take too many measurement errors to teach me the importance of obsessive compulsive pursuit of perfection.

     

    I can only imagine the pressures that might exist within NS to get it right this time around.
    18 Oct 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3934) | Send Message
     
    " ... there might be floggings and beheadings in connection with work on the second generation, but there would be no failures."

     

    Perfect environment for that "partner" university professor to spend creative time conjuring "one more thing" to test out while his undergrad and graduate school assistants perform the lab work funded with the latest NSC grant.
    18 Oct 2013, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... Rightly so. Research is what the academics are paid to do.
    18 Oct 2013, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    'um-m-m-m-mmmm. Maybe somebody WAS fired. Perhaps somebody didn't retire voluntarily. Perhaps there was supercharger assistance demanded of the departure. Not sayin' Just sayin'.

     

    When something smells fishy and there is a sudden change in command, arrive at the obvious conclusion. NS is amazingly tolerant of errors. One is allowed to fail and get back up to fight again. If however one fails publicly a'midst self invited bugles, then it's time to pack up the china and polish the resume' .

     

    The right cast of characters is now in place. I can't make unequivocal predictions of success with the TEMLO, but I guarantee every practical effort is being made to capture that success. This is a pet project with decades of vision and study.

     

    Where this will end up is anybody's guess. But at NS if you hear a "quack" waste no time looking for a swan. Go ahead and anticipate the duck.
    19 Oct 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    VW, Thanks. Rhymes with standard procedure at old world US big business.

     

    Take chances but have control strategies with alternate paths to minimize losses and deliver on promised target dates. Never embarrass yourself in the pubic eye and NEVER mess up for the customer in a big way. I hear ya.
    19 Oct 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Vallywood> I give up. You sent me scurrying to the web for a definition of SWIMBO but I still can't figure out TEMLO. Would you mind shining a little light into my fog?
    19 Oct 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Total Electric Mobile Locomotive ( TEMLO ).

     

    http://bit.ly/19YYVQ8
    19 Oct 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    JP, you won't find TEMLO anywhere but on this concentrator.

     

    That's because it was made up late at night during a capital budget marathon session. Two friends and I. 1981 seems about right. I might still have the notes from that meeting if I could ever find them in the boxes downstairs. But the date sounds correct.

     

    Total Electric Mobile Locomotive.

     

    Mobile as opposed to tethered to overhead wires or adjacent hot rail.

     

    A few of us championed this project way back then. NPV was sketchy, IRR was indefensible, and the technology did not exist. Still . . . Some of us have been waiting a long time for what we hope is reality (or will become so ) today.

     

    We were hooted out of rooms whenever we proposed it. Nobody is hooting today.
    19 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29573) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks DRich and Valleywood. I've seen the term bounce back and forth and knew it had something to do with NS 999 but couldn't put it together for the life of me.

     

    Now that I've learned my new thing for the day, I'll go back to a lazy Saturday.
    19 Oct 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    Back around the days of 20 % prime rate. I remember it well. That's around when GM moved to 60 days before paying because they almost went bankrupt. You can free up a ton of cash by doing that. Well for awhile. When they first changed the company I worked for lost money on a job because it took them 90 days before payment. Profit went Poof. That's not fun when you come close to hitting your targets and you did a good job.
    19 Oct 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8855) | Send Message
     
    " The jury is still out on this and the deliberation time is driving me nuts."

     

    DRich, You're not alone. Ugh!
    18 Oct 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like