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  • OK, I'll play along ...1 ... Sale announced on Nov 8
    19 Oct 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Jeez DRich. Maybe this is a sign for a change at Axion as well. On the sales side that is.
    19 Oct 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Don't get your knickers into a knot. I picked this date because it is the last really bad selection for a date to announce anything before earnings CC.
    19 Oct 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry DRich, I was not intending to mean the date. I was referring to your posting first on the latest concentrator which is not your "bag of tea". Unfortunately I read the "1" as not one contract but being first. Har har!

     

    I wonder if what starts some wars is just as meaningful. Probably to most of those that have to fight them. :(
    19 Oct 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... I did mean for the "1" to be first to post. I've past up the opportunity to post first many times but every once in awhile ... what the heck. I'll take any sale as being significant, but the "1" is also the number of buyers I expect those sales to be for. My big thing is the wait for that fateful day that an Axion PbC filters down to an end-user ... the mythical Customer No. 1.
    19 Oct 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • I won't guess as to the number of sales or the dollar amount, but my astrologer has cautioned that Mercury goes retrograde on October 21 and turns direct on November 10th. According to the cognoscenti,

     

    "Mercury has rulership over such things as speaking, negotiating, buying and selling, listening, formal contracts, documents, travel, the mail and shipping, and so forth. All of these areas of life are affected when Mercury is functioning in a sluggish state. Decision-making is challenged during Mercury retrograde. Needless to say, it is not advised to sign contracts, engage in important decision-making, or launch a new business. Delays and challenges are more probable with Mercury retrograde."

     

    With cosmic forces of that magnitude in play, I'll pick the 12th for a press release. Besides, it also happens to be my birthday.
    19 Oct 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • John, you are positively mercurial today!
    19 Oct 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • It was as good a justification as I could find for picking my birthday. I just want a present.
    19 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Anyone remember 2 years ago when we were guessing the date that we'd see $1 per share?
    19 Oct 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • You know how they say everything takes "twice as long as will be twice as expensive" as estimated? Since many in 2011 thought we'd be over a buck by 2013, I figure we'll take till 2015 and 50 cents will be the new hurdle. I hope I'm way off and that we see evidence before years end to make me revise my thinking and still have hope for 2013/2014.
    20 Oct 2013, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • Jpau: Smack! Ouch!

     

    Such a sadist you are! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • Getting closer!
    19 Oct 2013, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • almost got to the top!
    19 Oct 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Final Countdown?
    19 Oct 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Exide again. Seems some government agencies as happy and some are not.

     

    Regulators move to shut down battery recycling plant

     

    http://lat.ms/19hZRMw
    19 Oct 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • 10/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 185, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 65000, Vol: 1476191, AvTrSz: 7979
    Min. Pr: 0.1230, Max Pr: 0.1360, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1286
    # Buys, Shares: 95 697591, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1321
    # Sells, Shares: 86 747600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1255
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 31000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1262
    Buy:Sell 1:1.07 (47.3%), DlyShts 553173 (37.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 73.99%

     

    Today is a little more “content-rich”. Yeah, still the usual amount of opinion and maybes, guesses, ... But there's intra-day breakdowns and something that may interest folks. Look for “Speaking of repeating behavior” deep in today's EOD stuff in the blog.

     

    Before I forget, I want to mention that the 10-day average of buy percentage is making a nice recovery. It's now back within the normal range at least. Buy percentage will need to remain strong for a while though to get it back centered around the 40%-60% area, which is what we need.

     

    Feels good to actually spot something that might indicate bullishness.

     

    Haven't done a trading breakdown for a while ...

     

    Chopped it here in consideration of those with no interest.

     

    Masochists can go here for all the pain.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Oct 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • APH> Did you get the new graphs I sent this morning? With last week's incredible volume the changes are quite striking. There are even modest upturns in the 10- and 20-day VWMA.
    19 Oct 2013, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Been tied up - saw they arrived at 10:59.

     

    Will add them in. Will take a couple minutes.

     

    EDIT: Up now. 17:20 EDT.
    19 Oct 2013, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • A couple things I'd like to point out about the new graphs.

     

    1. My 10-day average has turned up and so has the 20-day. The turns are not big or extended but they are happening.

     

    2. Volume is sky high and we've traded more shares in October than we did in 2010. Unless the PIPErs have been putting stock in the sock drawer for several months, there's a good chance that they'll run out within the next few days and give everybody some breathing room.

     

    3. The FINRA short values seem to be normalizing in the mid-30% range I'd expect with the PIPErs hammering stock into the market every day. Since the FINRA short numbers shifted dramatically on the 10th, it wouldn't surprise me to find out that somebody threw an unsportsmanlike conduct flag. Investors who sell under a resale registration statement cannot use gimmicks to mask their behavior.
    19 Oct 2013, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • "Since the FINRA short numbers shifted dramatically on the 10th, it wouldn't surprise me to find out that somebody threw an unsportsmanlike conduct flag".

     

    If we ever (could) find that out, it would be nice. I've been suspicious. I won't hold my breath though.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Oct 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • There's no way to know the cause, but there was a clear behavior change that's very welcome regardless of the cause.
    19 Oct 2013, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Almost looks like you're calling a bottom JP =) Here's to hoping you got your crystal ball back in good working order.
    20 Oct 2013, 04:49 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not calling anything, but even the PIPErs can't withstand the buy side pressure we've seen this month.
    20 Oct 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • "buy side pressure"

     

    But just keeping perspective here, that's all since the 10th, 7 trading days.

     

    From 9/30 to the 9th, 8 trading days, we had "buy" percentages of 30.9%, 10.7%, 10.4%, 32.1%, 20.5%, 30.2%, 18.5% and 16.3%, averaging 21.2%. That means on averages 78.8% of trades "hit the bid".

     

    Since then, we've had 48.2%, 43.1%, 36.3%, 45.6%, 43.5%, 33.1% and 47.3%, averaging 42.4%, meaning on average 57.6% hit the bid.

     

    This latter series of buy percentages is a really decent improvement, but I think we need to see it sustain in light of the new environment before taking too much comfort from it.

     

    I expressed some reservations earlier (in my EOD stuff IIRC) about it because the buy percentage had not moved as high, overall, as was seen on previous moves of bullishness. This is really apparent when looking at my blog price chart and then the buy:sell charts, daily and averages, for the periods where we've had prior positive moves in price.

     

    Since 7/15, when we last had a little price appreciation begin and peak on 7/24 (VWAP $0.1318 -> $0.1808, +37%), the buy percentage peaks have been muted. In fairness, we've not since had a real bump in price, other than this rise off of $0.10 (10/9 VWAP $0.1039 -> $0.1286 10/18, +23.95%) to establish something like a "norm".

     

    But it *is* early in the recent change and it could be we do a sustained steady climb, as we have seen once before, rather than a rush up.

     

    I was thinking maybe this was similar to the start of the "grind up" beginning from Nov. of last year, so I went and looked at my one-year snapshot (thank you-know-who I had drawn some lines to help the eye flow).

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    But there's no joy there - the patterns are much more bullish there and we are left wondering if this is the start of something or just another blip.

     

    That chart can be right-clicked to view (I suggest open in new tab selection is the best), allowing greater zooming.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • You're right to observe that it's only seven trading days, but during those seven days buyers sopped up 9.35 million shares in a market that only has 10 million shares a month of easy supply. My current October total stand at 24.5 million, which breaks down as 12.25 million on the sell side and 12.25 million on the buy side if you assume a double count. To the extent that there are single count trades the sell-side number gets higher.

     

    Like I said earlier "unless the PIPErs have been putting stock in the sock drawer for several months, there's a good chance that they'll run out within the next few days."
    20 Oct 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • I had mentioned a couple times over the last week or so that I thought I was seeing some evidence of the double-count activity. It was a noticeable change in the pattern of how trades went - sequence, timing, quantities, ...

     

    Hadn't seen that in large numbers for a *long* time, so it really jumped out at me.

     

    Too bad we can't but a real number on, but I think a rough estimate of 30%-40% were doubles on some of the days would in the ballpark. Other days not so much.

     

    Almost all of those were in the smaller block ranges - 5K to 20K, even a 30K here and there.

     

    I can't think of an easy way to turn that into how much was sopped up and have any confidence in it though. Just too much would depend on correct observation, correct assessment it was a "double-counter", etc. I don't believe I'm all that good at those functions.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Don't need to be a statistician to say something relevant happened based on those two groupings. But you're right. Nothing guarantees that it will continue.

     

    Maybe the PIPErs had a family reunion in the Cayman islands and they wanted to devote their full attention to their genetically related blood suckers? Or it's a curve ball?
    20 Oct 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • BTW: On the short interest report due 10/24 for the period ending 10/15, I expect an increase in reported short interest again *unless* daily short sales collapses, in volume terms, in the last three trading days of the period, which it didn't - it was in fact rising in both volume and price.

     

    This would be a normal effect of MM mechanics and strategies in an environment of increasing volume and price, not necessarily an indicator of real shorting.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Hi HTL,
    All I know is that volume has gone sky high. Volume in AXPW is recently higher than many of the other stocks I follow (eg. (SAND), (REXX) and (PSLV).
    20 Oct 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • S.D.: I think a natural effect of (now?) ~67MM shares, in aggregate, to be issued over the ~9 months? And, as noted above in a thread with JP, I've seen what I think is evidence of the "double count" JP mentioned way back when. I hadn't seen it for a long time and I'm feeling pretty sure there's a substantial percentage of it going on right now.

     

    That is *one* of the things that *should* cause an increase in *daily* short percentages.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • The recently filed S-1 says 153,127,215 shares were outstanding on October 4, 2013. The total was 113,290,364 shares on April 25th. That means Axion has issued just under 40 million shares for the first four PIPEr payments. Until the price recovers, we need to plan on 10 million new shares flowing into the market every month.

     

    The double count is a rule rather than the exception on the OTC. There are single-count prints for in-house matching crosses, but everything else prints once when shares are sold to the market maker and a second time when they're sold by the market maker.
    20 Oct 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • John: And a very low daily short sales suggests the *possibility* of a lot of in-house where there would be no double count.

     

    There's other possibilities which we touched on before, but with the low-volume low-daily-short we've now seen twice this year in two periods, I think the double count was the exception for quite some time.

     

    As I mentioned, I was able to observe intra-day activity that was changed that made me think we now had greater occurrences of double-counts than we had been seeing.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • We have a long standing disagreement over the meaning of the daily short sales data. I don't think the FINRA data has anything to do with the double count because I know that market makers do not maintain overnight long or short positions in sub-$1 stocks. There are single counts, but they're the exception and rarely account for more than 10% or 20% of reported volume.
    20 Oct 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • How much of the $9 million loan does the first four PIPEr payments pay back?
    20 Oct 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC each monthly stock payment should be 1 million plus interest.
    20 Oct 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • The PIPE principal reductions are $1 million a month. So we have five more payments to the PIPErs and one to the old guard.
    20 Oct 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Could the Oct 4th outstanding shares figure of 153mm include the prepayment for the following month?
    20 Oct 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • The pre-payment for November was due on the 3rd. So the 153 million includes full payments for July, September and October, and the pre-payment for November.
    20 Oct 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • August as well, right? So essentially 5 months out of the 9 (with the true-up for November not included), have been paid off.
    21 Oct 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • There was no payment due in August. The first payment was due 23 trading days after the resale registration statement went effective on on June 3, 2013. That meant the pre-installment shares were issued in early June and the true up occurred on July 6th (I think).

     

    The next installment wasn't due until September because August 1st was less than 20 trading days after the first installment date.

     

    The "Installment Date" definition on page 41 of the Notes is tough on the eyes and clumsy to read, but that's what it says.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1753WnN
    21 Oct 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • An alternative to pumped hydro in dry areas: hybrid box cars loaded with weight.

     

    http://bit.ly/H95K5O
    20 Oct 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick, I remember at one time they were considering peaceful nuclear explosions to alter mountain ranges for various purposes. I wonder if there has been any consideration to have a constant mining operation at the top of a mountain and just keep returning the cars to the top empty. Have to wonder what the net result would be. There have to be some areas where this might prove useful for development and it would be great if it could be done over time and yield net positive energy output. Or maybe just make the topographic alterations more affordable.
    20 Oct 2013, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • a general summary - including use of ski-lifts to transport gravel up hill at night...
    http://bloom.bg/15VBfce
    20 Oct 2013, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • PY
    I have trouble believing you can build one of these economically enough to be very useful. Each car has a motor that must drive it up a hill and generate energy on the way down. This seems too expensive per car.

     

    OTOH
    Bill Gates is invested in the ski lift idea and I don't see that as likely either.

     

    Actually a hybrid if them seems better.
    A cable car(s) going up and down hill.
    A centralized power source and only one motor for many cars.
    Unlike the ski-lift your not picking the weight up and down each time, with the resulting dust, wear and tear on the machinery etc.
    20 Oct 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT

     

    In the last concentrator you mentioned the NS paper and making a business out of this. Is the paper publicly available?

     

    Thanks
    20 Oct 2013, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Jcrjg
    It was a statement in a paper.
    Just a single sentence IIRC.
    Which unfortunately I can't find ATM.
    20 Oct 2013, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Here is an article about Johnson Controls 48V from the local fishwrap.

     

    http://bit.ly/19lK9Aj
    20 Oct 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • "The challenge for suppliers is to provide fuel savings without making things difficult or cumbersome for the car designers and engineers, Belzowski said. The 48-volt micro hybrid system requires two batteries, a small 12-volt starter battery as well as the compact lithium-ion micro hybrid unit.

     

    "It doesn't look too big, but it's still a packaging issue to try to get both of those things into the vehicle," Belzowski said."

     

    Read more from Journal Sentinel: http://bit.ly/1b6Qu1A
    Follow us: @NewsHub on Twitter

     

    Basically confirms what others have said on this blog before.
    21 Oct 2013, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Nice cut away. Looks inexpensive! :-))
    21 Oct 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Thinking about everything I see in the data, what I believe MMs have been doing, contributing mightily to both the volume and sustaining prices at a "higher" level, I'm expecting today or tomorrow we could see some price weakening, lower volume and a drop in short sales volume and percentage larger than the recently seen changes.

     

    It's a risky thought because a good part of my thinking depends on a correct understanding, which is not certain, of MMs' behavior.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • This could be The Week.
    Does the NS 999 has a whistle to blow? Will there be an article from the conference that mentions how the new batteries will change the world?
    21 Oct 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Axion PowerCube was added to DOE database

     

    http://tinyurl.com/lls...

     

    Eaton provided the power electronics.
    21 Oct 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan: That's good news!

     

    Thx!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • What's the significance of being added to the database?
    21 Oct 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Does this website or even the base not open for anyone else? I get a DNS for this. Ugh.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mrholty
    I got a DNS at first; then I hit refresh and it worked.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Put me down for the 12th--to lend what support I can for a big birthday present for Mr. Petersen. He certainly deserves one! Still buying and still bullish after lurking for a few years.
    21 Oct 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • >RBrun --- "I am going to wager that the first "significant order" will be announced on the 5th and the second on the 14th! I have nothing to support my guess!"
    .........................

     

    OK, I'll take a stab at this. I’ve considered TG’s comments, and noted he used a plural (s), but he didn't say "couple", so I figured that might mean approx 3-6 sales/orders, and have assumed “several” orders were likely. If so, then it seems the odds are we’ll hear something soon, perhaps this week even. So, why not tomorrow? — My guess is first sales order announcement is tomorrow, October 22, 2013, a date which will live in AXPW infamy. :-) --- (I'm assuming JP wouldn't mind an early birthday present...)
    21 Oct 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Wayne,
    If it is going to be tomorrow, then the order should be for three PowerCubes, since my son turns three years old tomorrow! :-)
    21 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • labTech: It would have to be a large "birfday cake" to get three PCs on top. Hard to light too!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2013, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Just out of curiosity, let's say the order was "allowed to be released" or "ordered" on a Saturday. Is the company required to break the news Monday or can it wait till "they're ready". I assume it's at their discretion. For example, AAPL doesn't tell us everytime it sells an iphone, just at earnings. Assuming the company can more or less choose the time to make a sales announcement, when is it most likely? Why? For example, before the market open on a Monday would probably trade differently from mid-day on a Wednesday, or after the market close on Friday. Is there any "advantageous" time to make an announcement like game-changing sales orders?
    21 Oct 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Sales don't have to be announced unless they're material in comparison to TTM or current revenues, typically more than 10%.

     

    In connection with a material event, a Form 8-K has to be filed within 3 days. So I'd normally advise clients that they had a couple days of rubber.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech, Enjoy!

     

    BTW, Don't start out with such a huge surprise. It'll be hard to beat as the years progress. Before you know it he'll want multiples of hybrid trucks and auto contracts too. :-D
    21 Oct 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • "Before you know it he'll want multiples of hybrid trucks and auto contracts too."

     

    Just like his Dad! :-)
    21 Oct 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    We'll just put a couple of Li-ion batteries on top and let them overheat a little. I'm sure that will make it easy to light the candles!
    21 Oct 2013, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • "Before you know it he'll want multiples of hybrid trucks and auto contracts too."

     

    Well, for now he has settled for a battery powered puppy dog and a small acoustic guitar to jam on.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Ahh, but JP, TTM includes all PbC sales to ePower, delivery of 864 PbC batteries for the NS999, unknown quantities of PbCs sold in batches shortly before end of '13Q2 and shortly after Q2 end but before Q2 CC and ALL those toll contract revenues.

     

    Buyers 100 PbCs (enough for a 50kWh PC) or less would fall below the 10% threshold even if the base is limited to PbC sales alone. Would Axion disclose such a sale if the buyer requested non-disclosure as long as possible? If a Tier I buyer conditioned additional future buys on maintaining anonymity as long as possible would Axion be legally required to disclose, say, an $800k PbC sale prior to '13Q3 report? Would Axion management be legally obligated to disclose, say, four-to-six independent purchases of PbCs that in aggregate breached the 10% revenue rule when none alone would do so?
    21 Oct 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... There is really no need to speculate. The game is wait & see.
    21 Oct 2013, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • :-) Where is the fun in not speculating, DR? Air castles are wonderful (unless they evolve into thunderheads).
    21 Oct 2013, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • >D-inv ... If you feel obligated to speculate over something that is totally binary into an information void ... then go ahead. Substantial sales is meaningless without information. It is going to happen or it is not. I just don't see the point.
    21 Oct 2013, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • Actually, DR, each of us must "speculate" to some extent at this juncture as to just what was meant by Granville in "predicting" 'substantial" (or was it 'significant') sales by time of the next CC. I have just re-visited the SA '13Q2 CC transcript and was unable to locate any reference to the "prediction" in the Q&As. Each of us must decide for ourselves whether whatever is disclosed by time of the next CC measures up to expectations arising from the "prediction" and in gauging Granville's credibility.

     

    Four, five, or six smallish "batch" PbC sales to independent unaffiliated buyers would be a significant development indicative of commercial viability even though together they might not amount to 'substantial' revenue. AND realization of that fact could be crucial to AXPW share price trajectory post CC.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick's question dealt with when sales had to be announced and when management could decide to delay an announcement. All things considered I don't believe Axion's management is likely to sit tight or remain quiet if they have something to talk about and don't have NDA issues. For example, the team is bending over backwards to support ePower because the application is real, the fuel savings are huge and ePower wants to talk instead of keeping everything covered in soundproof black canvas. I see clear signs that PR is becoming a more important issue for management, and that's a good thing.
    22 Oct 2013, 05:24 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv -

     

    Here is the direct quote from the end of the last call:

     

    "We expect to have a new member of the team – an important member of the team in place on our next call. I never promised orders on a timetable basis before. But, I will predict that we will have significant orders to talk about on our next earning call."

     

    He has come through with the important new member of the team with the CFO hire.
    22 Oct 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Re-reading this statement, he says that he will have significant orders to talk about. Could that mean orders that are in the process of being closed, but not closed?
    22 Oct 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, Stef. "will have significant orders to talk about on our next earning call" is very helpful in focusing anticipatory thoughts on SIGNIFICANT vice substantial. The choice of words allows wider scope IMO while the lead in sentence casts the prediction as a promise.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: But orders could be pending, being chased, closed, shipping late next year ... since he didn't specify.

     

    Regardless, could be could whatever the status.

     

    Some would just be "more gooder".

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Since we're parsing words here, TG also reiterated his August 15 "prediction" in a slightly different way when he said: --- "I expect to report a combination of confirmed orders and initial sales in these markets before our next quarterly earnings call in mid November."
    22 Oct 2013, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • That clarifies somewhat. Any news like that is good news...even orders in the process of being finalized.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • He again reconfirmed this prediction a month and a half later at the stockholders meeting on September 26, 2013.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Today's PR re-Multilink could well have advised indirectly of one confirmed order with a bit of initial sales. But, maybe not.
    22 Oct 2013, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Possible scenario ?

     

    Axion could have several sales which together create a material event, but not individually.
    As I understand it, this would not require any disclosure. It might not be in evidence until the numbers of batteries sold are available. (this doesn't occur until the batteries are delivered.)

     

    Could we have a meeting where TG says 'we had sales, but delivery hasn't happened/didn't happen last Q and I can't talk about it' ?
    22 Oct 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • I assign a real probability to the CC only "talking" about sales, which doesn't bother me if they give concrete details about when it'll happen. After all, everyone here just wants to know that another PIPE won't happen.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Note quite, Ranma, not quite. It is time to see some sales to systems integrators for commercial products, not test prototypes.
    22 Oct 2013, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • JP or others

     

    Any idea on the capex to add a line to expand as suggested by TG

     

    also would Axion need to built a building around it or could it be added in existing facilities

     

    Perhaps just in my own mind but i thought too we would pick up space with the battery line now operates as this was eliminated as a low margin business

     

    All thoughts appreciated. Thanks

     

    21 Oct 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca, This was JP's response to a comment from JohnM in concentrator 178. Don't recall any updated info. subsequent to this directional cost target. My impression is that it has room for improvement by someone with more manufacturing expertise than Axion has in house.

     

    " JohnM> the nice thing about production capacity is that while $50 million is the target for a 10-line facility and purchased building, the expansion can happen in $3.5 million additions inside a building that Axion has already leased. It's not an all or none proposition and electrode capacity can be ramped to keep pace with demand rather than relying on the "if you build it they will come" theory of capital spending. "
    21 Oct 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • As near as I could tell from the capital spending patterns in Axion's old SEC reports, the robotic electrode assembly line cost something on the order of $3 to $4 million. When the carbon sheeting process was launched, the release said that the new equipment produced 300% more sheeting than a crew of 10 workers with the earlier process. So my guess is that we've got adequate sheet fabrication capacity for four robotic electrode assembly lines.

     

    I really am stretching a bit to connect the dots here, but the numbers seem right to me given what I know.
    21 Oct 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tier 1 HELLA evaluating PowerGenix NiZn batteries for 48V mild hybrid vehicles

     

    http://bit.ly/19nSDXA
    21 Oct 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Someone may be burning EVs in Paris

     

    http://tinyurl.com/mze...

     

    With two losses on Monday morning Boulevard Charonne Paris, 25 electric cars were burned Bolloré group since their self-service in the capital there two years.
    Who wants to electric cars made ​​in France? On Monday, two new Bolloré Blue Car, in free service in the program Autolib ', went up in smoke in their charging station, 52 boulevard de Charonne, Paris (11th). Double disaster took place between 7:00 and 7:30 in the morning. The battery in the car was burned. However, Bolloré says, "the causes of these fires are outside." In short: malicious acts would be the cause.
    21 Oct 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Good time for an announcement.

     

    Solar Power International.

     

    http://bit.ly/H6CHj3

     

    http://yhoo.it/H6CGvn
    21 Oct 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • You are correct. If this is like the airline industry when airlines announce orders to cause a splash the principles and others in the industry generally know months out. Hopefully we get something to keep momentum up.

     

    However I am doubtful. If I was going to be part of a sale I'd have a booth there. Why isn't Axion at this conference. Lots of state and federal dollars looking to get spent.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • An automotive update.

     

    DOE's Fisker loan if 165 mil or so was sold to a Chinese firm.
    The minimum bid was supposed to be 30mil but rumors are it was less.
    Lutz who lost the bid says his company now has a continuing supply of gliders, beyond the 25 he already bought. I assume a deal with the Chinese. (He is making cars without a plug.)
    http://bit.ly/1eEqLAo

     

    2014 Green Car Of The Year Finalists Announced. No EVs and only one with an option for a plug.
    http://bit.ly/1eEqLAr

     

    Mercedes makes their own cells for the Smart for two. (and other EVs?)
    But appears to be trying to get out of the business.
    <Yet you are looking at all your options for your joint cell production in Kamenz, including a sale.
    It is a matter of putting cell production on a long-term basis without any time pressure. At the same time, economies of scale are very important. That is why we are talking to practically every battery manufacturer, from Korea to Japan all the way to the U.S. We have plenty of time since the current battery technology for the Smart will be the basis for the next generation. Incidentally, I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik. It has given us more expertise than any other automaker.>
    http://bit.ly/1eEqLAt

     

    Nissan is testing a Leaf with a double sized (48kWh pack)

     

    Just for fun. In the bond film: The spy who loved me.
    Someone bought a storage container unopened for $100 and found the model submarine. It has been restored and was recently sold it at auction for about $900,000 to
    Wait for it....

     

    Elon Musk

     

    Who says he will make it a working amphibious vehicle that will transform from car to submarine. (In the movie it was different vehicles. The sub was just a model.).
    http://bit.ly/1eEqNIv
    21 Oct 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmmm, rule of thumb when reading major manufacturer press releases on topics like this:

     

    "...you are looking at all your options for your joint cell production in Kamenz, including a sale."

     

    Translation: We want OUT.

     

    "... I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik."

     

    Translation: We should never have done this.

     

    "It is a matter of putting cell production on a long-term basis without any time pressure."

     

    Translation: If we can't sell soon, we will have to shut it down and write the whole thing off.

     

    "At the same time, economies of scale are very important. That is why we are talking to practically every battery manufacturer, from Korea to Japan all the way to the U.S."

     

    Translation: Our JV is far too small to ever be viable, and we are desperate enough to take help from anyone, even the Americans.

     

    "We have plenty of time since the current battery technology for the Smart will be the basis for the next generation."

     

    Translation: We will accept older designs because we are so desperate to cut a deal.

     

    "Incidentally, I am very happy that we launched our own cell production with Evonik."

     

    Translation: I screwed up. I want my Mommy...

     

    "It has given us more expertise than any other automaker."

     

    Translation: We KNOW how bad an idea it really was, and promise NEVER to do it again.
    21 Oct 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Hilarious!!
    21 Oct 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Accurate as well.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Many thanks for the smiles.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Until now I thought I was good at reading between the lines.
    But this beats me by several horse lenghts
    21 Oct 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Correctly parsing corpspeak is an essential investor skill set.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • TB: then I'm doomed. I tend too much to believe what is spoken is what is meant.

     

    You can imagine the difficulty I have with women.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • TB, thanks. Made my evening
    21 Oct 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • HTML: with women and puppies, it's not what you say, but the tone, that counts.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Approx. 1.9 million / 2 shares traded and we're stuck with 2 hundreds of a penny between the bid and the ask. Jeez.
    21 Oct 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Took a look at the NS/Axion presentation again.

     

    It appears to me that Axion added slide 14, which appears to be the same slide that Gerhard Thelen used in 2011 to describe the OTR Cresent Corridor load profiles and mentioning the PbC's advantages over lead acid.

     

    http://bit.ly/181vKFw

     

    Any ideas on how we can get the technical paper? Can someone that speaks to Vani email him? I have a couple emails out to the organizers of the conference, but haven't heard anything back.
    21 Oct 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • We had this same discussion a year ago. We had the link and then it was taken down.

     

    http://bit.ly/NtHEOW

     

    http://bit.ly/L2I2bT

     

    http://bit.ly/16qRJGl
    21 Oct 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • I think a technical paper is a long-shot unless it comes from NS because anything worth reading would include a ton of NS proprietary data.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... I would think that the paper, the Axion/NSC presentation, would be published in the conference proceedings, which I haven't seen yet. Maybe I just can't find it ... I don't know.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Holty,

     

    Thanks for the blast from the not so distant past. Future seemed a lot brighter then before the PIPErs became the present reality.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Drich,

     

    That is my understanding:

     

    "According to ASME's presenter attendance policy, if a paper is not presented at the Conference, the paper will not be published in the official archival Proceedings, which are registered with the Library of Congress and abstracted and indexed. It will also not be published in the ASME Digital Collection and may not be cited as a published paper."

     

    It should be published here, I think:

     

    http://bit.ly/16qTW4D
    21 Oct 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • I sincerely hope you're right and something is published. Given the nature of the conference, I'd think the odds favor a formal paper rather than just a simple presentation.
    21 Oct 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • >Stefan Moroney ... This is the page I've been watching

     

    http://bit.ly/1a91NYO

     

    There is a lack of papers for 2013 so I'm not sure just how long the lag time is but it seems to be quite lengthy.
    21 Oct 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe I missed someone else taking the pole position on the Axion sales announcement date. So, I'll take one sale announced on November 14th as part of the quarterly results.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • My prediction is that a PowerCube order (multiple units, possibly as many as 10) will be announced on either Wednesday or Thursday this week. This is based on the fact that the CA utility regulators mandated grid storage last Thursday, allowing companies certainty in making orders for storage systems they've already tested/looked at on Friday or at the latest, today, and assuming they must file the document with the SEC by Thursday, we could see action on PowerCube sales this week.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Put the hopium pipe on the shelf and step away slowly. I love the idea but the timing and volume seem a little over the top to this tired old dog.
    21 Oct 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Korea adopts energy storage plan: 500 MW by 2017.

     

    http://bit.ly/GYr9hi
    21 Oct 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Capex $4M to expand profitable business when the demand (=PO's) are in place. Peanuts in relation to AXPW investment already made under far riskier circumstances

     

    More good news

     

    No equity required there - and if needed should be at smart price

     

    We continue to roll positive

     

    Lets keep it rolling - even if the price lingers where it is _ I for one will pick up the Pipers cast offs at these prices

     

    JP's latest article says it all

     

    Opportunity of a lifetime for patient capital wondering how long I can pick up stock at $0.12- $0.13. Likely only until the announced sale(s)

     

    21 Oct 2013, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca,

     

    I concur, as I've repeatedly posted. The PbC has a bright future and AXPW is way too cheap to reflect that future.

     

    However, I can't afford to lose money as investing puts bread on the table for me rather than being a rich man's toy. So I always try to kill my ideas.

     

    Recently I posted that my biggest fear was that PbC's subjected to heavy cycling at perhaps challenging temperature environments at PSOC, might not maintain DCA performance for years. Now as negative news on the longevity front has been lacking, and there was palpable staff excitement at the AGM, I no longer fear that longevity issues might kill the PbC economically speaking. They could be a problem but not a death knell.

     

    However, we're not out of the woods yet. I still think current AXPW shareholders could conceivably suffer losses even from $.12, even if the PbC technology shines:

     

    1. Dilution: Worst case is that repeated rounds of PIPE financing to come will dilute the bejeezus out of us. Unfortunately, if cash is lacking, there is nothing we can do but pay the piper to keep the lights on. It's possible that the aggregate shareholders who owned 100% of the company in 2012 could end up owning just a small fraction of it. However, even in the worst dilutive case of giving up 80-90% of the company, I think buyers today at $.12 will still probably eventually make very good money.

     

    2. <$.10 Price Failure. The PIPErs may wish to force "price failures" in any or all of the last 5 installment payments. Having to pay them in cash + interest + 25% penalty instead of shares could spell serious trouble. Alternately they could demand it in stock, making the dilution all the worse. It would be madness, but if they demanded payment in cash, and Axion could not raise the cash, they could enforce claims on Axion's assets in a liquidation (plant and patents). Again, they'd be crazy to kill the golden goose, but it's in the realm of possibility so it's worth a thought because stockholders could lose everything if this worst case scenario came to pass.

     

    So dlmca, I'm with you on this. However I cannot add any more shares yet until there is greater assurance of not having a succession of Price Failures that could destroy the coffers near term. If the pps wanders into the single digits for a while, I think then, absent good news, despair returns due to the Price Failure clause and a negative spiral is likely. If that happens then I'll look to buy a boatload more shares considerably below this ~$.12 level.
    21 Oct 2013, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • WAY OT: Was having a discussion with a friend this weekend about the founding fathers..

     

    Here are the ages of the Founding Fathers as of July 4, 1776.

     

    Marquis de Lafayette, 18
    James Monroe, 18
    Gilbert Stuart, 20
    Aaron Burr, 20
    Alexander Hamilton, 21
    Betsy Ross, 24
    James Madison, 25
    Thomas Jefferson, 33
    John Adams, 40
    Paul Revere, 41
    George Washington, 44
    Samuel Adams, 53
    Benjamin Franklin, 70.

     

    Damn they were a young bunch.
    21 Oct 2013, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • MrHolty: Obviously a bunch of young radicals, mostly, with little respect for authority.

     

    I'm quite empathetic with that.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Life in the 1750s.

     

    The average person would live to only 36.9 years of age

     

    http://bit.ly/1cPT8ee
    21 Oct 2013, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Life expectancy stats never explain that the number is highly skewed by child mortality. Once you reach adulthood you should expect to live much longer.
    21 Oct 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Age distribution of the population was heavily skewed toward younger ages in that era. Much larger families, very few people lived into their 80s much less 90s and 100s.

     

    Re - "Founding Fathers" is a group I have always thought of as signers of Declaration of Independence or the Constitution.

     

    Youngest signer of the Declaration of Independence was Edward Rutledge (26) of South Carolina. Oldest was Ben Franklin. http://bit.ly/1h2QiFE

     

    Re- signers of the Constitution http://bit.ly/1h2QhS7 gives youngest and oldest ages of signers in
    "Of the constitution's 40 signers, 23 were veterans of the Revolutionary War.[1] Jonathan Dayton was the youngest to sign the Constitution, at the age of 26, while Benjamin Franklin, at the age of 81, was the oldest.[3] Connecticut's Roger Sherman also signed the Articles of Association, the Declaration of Independence, and the Articles of Confederation, making him the only person to sign all four documents.[4] Six other signatories' names are on the Declaration of Independence, while another four are on the Articles of Confederation."
    21 Oct 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma, No doubt, but for comparatives sake it's far more complex than that. Anyway, It's a metric that deserves inclusion in the thought process. I can think of a few things I've had in my life time that might have been fatal without modern advantages than we now take for granted.
    21 Oct 2013, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Those over 30 look like ones you might listen and pay attention to

     

    Just saying
    21 Oct 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • "Those over 30 look like ones you might listen and pay attention to"

     

    Could be. OTOH, all framers and signers of the founding documents were very likely much better educated than the average colonist and by age of 21 were likely parents with experience of supporting families. The Founding Fathers expressed their view on age of fully mature judgment in stipulating attainment of age 35 as a qualification for President.

     

    Many people expected 16 year olds to carry adult weight in society in that era. Absence of social safety nets strongly encouraged individual responsibility and accountability.
    21 Oct 2013, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • In hunter gatherer societies, children up to the age of 15, tend to be a negative so far as food gathered VS food eaten is concerned.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • After reading the comments here, I believe it is time for the children to return to the sandbox to play. As for the remaining 5% of the comments, there very interesting. I have purchased 50,000 shares of AXPW this year and believe it will be a fine addition to other shares I own in my investment portfolio. This is a well managed company with excellent LONG TERM prospects in my opinion and, obviously, in the opinion of some major players in electricity storage as well as hybrid and all electric drive.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • NEW CASTLE, Pa., Oct. 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc., (OTCQB: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC batteries and energy storage systems, today announced it will display its PbC battery in L-5 format, as well as some of the battery's negative electrode components, as part of a dual presentation with MultiLink, an Elyria OH-based privately-held (http://bit.ly/1bSjVFP), engineering and product development manufacturer whose products include telecommunications network components. The companies continue to explore ways of working together to service the multibillion dollar communications industry.
    (Logo: http://bit.ly/sSCyC9)
    22 Oct 2013, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • "Axion Power And MultiLink Will Jointly Present Axion's PbC Technology At The SCTE In Atlanta October 21-24"

     

    And the news release comes out on the 22. Jeez.
    22 Oct 2013, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • Yep. That's one alert, cracker-jack PR operation there, I do declare...

     

    They need to spend 75 cents to buy another brain. 5 of them sharing one brain is just NOT working out.
    22 Oct 2013, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • Historically Telecom applications have accounted for half of stationary lead-acid battery sales while Datacom applications have accounted for another quarter. They're not sexy high-profile markets but they are very large markets where the long cycle-life of the PbC is a major advantage. I have no idea whether MultiLink has a sales channel that can move batteries in volume, but it could be a solid opportunity if Axion can simply sell batteries and leave the customization and customer service to someone else.
    22 Oct 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • TB, I'm so far out of the loop on this I shouldn't say anything. But I have never allowed ignorance to hold me back before, so . . .

     

    As I recall, our PR outfit is a large equity holder in AXPW. I wonder if it's a regrettable relationship.

     

    JP, am I all wet here? Should I go out and resume planting for the winter?
    22 Oct 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • AFAIK Allen & Caron (the PR firm) has no significant equity position in Axion. They've always worked on a tight leash with a minimal budget. Whenever you see a PR firm that owns a significant interest in a company it's promoting, run just as fast as your little legs can carry you because the odds are very high that the PR guys are up to no good.
    22 Oct 2013, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    Maybe this is some type of the continuation of the work that we identified at the Idaho National Lab and Battelle two years ago, but couldn't get any further information on. As I recall, you identified some type of telecommunications link?

     

    Couple of interesting Multilink links:

     

    http://bit.ly/1608D1q

     

    http://bit.ly/1608D1s
    22 Oct 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • "will display its PbC battery in L-5 format"

     

    Googled "L-5 format battery", but came up with no answer. Would appreciate it if someone could tell me what is L-5 format.
    Thanks,
    22 Oct 2013, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Metro: LOL, I don't know, but "L-5" was a very old and interesting group of space development fans intent on establishing a colony in the fifth Lagrange Point (ie, "L5").

     

    Sorry for the OT, it was just a flash from the distant past.
    22 Oct 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • According the Bosch website, L-5 batteries are utility batteries:

     

    http://bit.ly/19YCUuW

     

    Bosch L5 Battery - premium performance
    Bosch L5 Battery - premium performance Enlarge

     

    100% maintenance free*
    Focus on premium car segments and cars with a high number of electrical consumers
    Full coverage for upper class domestic and imported car segments
    Dependable power under extremes of heat, cold and high demand
    6-month free replacement warranty
    Free road side assistance
    *under normal operating conditions
    22 Oct 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan,
    Well the videos certainly show that they make UPS systems for telecommunications, so hopefully there will be an offering in the not to distant future that will include the PbC.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Slide 37 has an interesting discussion on racking and extending battery life:

     

    http://bit.ly/1608D1s

     

    As an aside, some of these pole mount enclosures look similar to the street light pole battery enclosure from the Axion plant.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Since they mentioned over 85% of what they offer as products were requested by customers looking for solutions to their needs, I'm hoping we increase that percentage a little. That would be nice.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Stephan,
    Thanks for the reply to my L-5 question. The Bosch designation of L-5 seems more like a quality descriptor, rather than a format.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Checking out the SCTE conference website, Axion is not listed as an attendee, exhibitor, or presenter. Timing of the news release appears very much dependent on info availability/clearance of their joint exhibitor and conference coordinators. The conference, SCTE Cable-Tech Expo, is cable network focused.

     

    Seems to me the PR serves to inform shareholders of name and industry of a PbC customer that has been flying under the radar.

     

    Not positive, but seems to me I have owned multilink modems in the past.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • L-5 is an EU standard battery case used in automotive. I think it's the form factor Axion has been working with for BMW.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • I tried also and got nothing, so same question here. L-5?
    22 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv,
    "Seems to me the PR serves to inform shareholders of name and industry of a PbC customer that has been flying under the radar"

     

    I would agree. No one going to this meeting is doing so to see a PbC battery or any other type of battery. This is the classic situation where you have a manufacturer with a product already on the market and they are bringing Axion along to show their customers that they have a new option for that product that their customers may want to consider. This is exactly the kind of situation Axion wants/needs for this industry. IMHO
    You also have to wonder if this type of thing has been in the works for a while, but that the PbC wasn't cost competitive enough in the past, but is now with the automated sheeting system?
    22 Oct 2013, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe these news were too much for Axion powers service provider:

     

    OpenDNS Guide
    Hmm, http://bit.ly/nG6x1f isn't loading right now.
    The servers that run http://bit.ly/nG6x1f are having some trouble. This is usually just a temporary problem, so you might want to try again in a few minutes.
    22 Oct 2013, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv,
    "Seems to me the PR serves to inform shareholders of name and industry of a PbC customer that has been flying under the radar"

     

    Well this part certainly confirms that, unless it is in error.

     

    "The companies continue to explore ways of working together to service the multibillion dollar communications industry."

     

    I'm having a little trouble believing this is not a new agreement. perhaps:
    The companies 'have begun to explore ways to...' would have been more accurate.
    PbC not being a drop in replacement requires the control electronics to be different. While JP has said this is not horribly expensive I doubt they will convert everything to PbC based on the belief that it will sell. They are probably testing the waters and have one or two products they have an actual running version of.
    More upon request of course.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • It would seem to me that given the fact they have serviced the industry for some time with uninterruptible power supplies this company would have a pretty good idea of what types of technology would appeal to customers with certain needs. This knowledge along with their stressing the importance of customer relationships sounds like a pretty good opportunity to shake some coconuts from more than a few trees.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • IIndelco
    I agree that they probably have a good handle on it. (Which is why I had the one or two products with an actual version of.
    I suspect most of the companies they deal with, know nothing about PbC.
    Leading to the "I don't believe it!" response to the specs.

     

    That said; unlike BMW they don't have to commit to thousands for years. They could put up a few trials for not too much.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey, Also a few years back AT&T had a disaster with a commitment they made to lithium ion. A few fires and they had to remove all the installations. The Canadian company that supplied them went belly up. You can bet they didn't forget nor did all the other companies that were watching and cringing. So we don't have a group that is all starry eyed with the all mighty lithium ion battery.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • IIndelco
    "So we don't have a group that is all starry eyed with the all mighty lithium ion battery. "

     

    Good.
    Unfortunately that means they will go slow with PbC as well.
    LA but better?
    Um sure, give me one. :-?
    22 Oct 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Froggey, Perhaps. But one might conclude that the testing of a technology might be done a little differently if it has known components that are not as flammable as the electrolytes used in lithium ion.
    22 Oct 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • The nice thing about having four years of validation testing by sadistic German automotive engineers and three years of double redundant testing by a first tier railroad is that it gets easier to make a compelling introductory pitch with each passing day.
    22 Oct 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah word will soon be out on Axion.
    So far I think cell tower and other stand alone set ups haven't heard of us and durability in long term for such uses is not proven.
    However I think Axion's credentials will get us an audience now. Before I expect they would have left us sitting at the door and listened with half an ear at best.
    Now I think we have their attention, if not their belief as yet.
    With a longer warranty than LA offers maybe a few sales. 6 months no problems a few repeat sales a year possibly substantial sales. Maybe 2 years.
    Perhaps I don't sound it but I am very excited to be in this area it seems like the stand alone market is another whale that Axion has gotten it's hook into.

     

    I think it will take a couple of years to be developed into a serious sized business. Rather than a serious potential business.For the next 2 years I only see PC sales as a large possibility. After that the sky is the limit.
    (Yeah Less shares would be nice. C'est la vie)
    22 Oct 2013, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Let us not forget the PR on PbC performance provided by ePower Engines. Handling 200A, 900V charge surges is no mean feat. Hundreds of charges/discharges per vehicle trip is pretty good too.
    22 Oct 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Yup some really good info about testing and the numbers they have on them are exceptional.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • 10/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 251, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 2444176, AvTrSz: 9738
    Min. Pr: 0.1237, Max Pr: 0.1348, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1283
    # Buys, Shares: 121 847209, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1289
    # Sells, Shares: 127 1578967, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1280
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 18000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1280
    Buy:Sell 1:1.86 (34.7% "buys"), DlyShts 760929 (31.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.19%

     

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

     

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,444.18.

     

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

     

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%

     

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1237-$0.1237: 001683 shares, 00.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1237, b:s , 0.0% buys
    $0.1260-$0.1270: 273800 shares, 11.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1266, b:s 1:3.60, 21.7% buys
    $0.1275-$0.1279: 757184 shares, 30.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1275, b:s 1:10.61, 8.6% buys
    $0.1280-$0.1299: 987009 shares, 40.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1283, b:s 1.15:1, 52.5% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1310: 311300 shares, 12.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1303, b:s 1:1.46, 40.7% buys
    $0.1315-$0.1348: 113200 shares, 04.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1329, b:s 2.17:1, 68.5% buys

     

    For the rest of my comments, you can go here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2013, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks, for all that data capture and massage, HTL. If today's share price development is predictive for the remainder of the month, you may have just advised us of the debt conversion price PIPErs will enjoy on their next installment. And, those low early October VWAP look to pull down conversion price on the following installment a bit as well.
    22 Oct 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: Just finished manual re-construction to (near-?)correct buys and sells from yesterday's ADVFN "Trades" screen SNAFU.

     

    Buy:sell came in at 1:1.52 (39.6% "buys"), a decent number, but not top-heavy by any means.

     

    Before I start writing my EOD stuff, I generally take a quick look at traditional charts and mine to see if there's anything noteworthy that catches my eye.

     

    This A.M. on the traditional charts, it looks like we just need to get by a prior support, now resistance, at the lows of $0.14/$0.139 on 6/26-7.

     

    Might present a challenge as near that area acted as the top of a sideways movement, 8/23-9/6, after which we tailed down again.

     

    But we've had essentially flat movement, since 10/14 on good volume, until today when we had an attempt to push up - higher low and high. That high of $0.1385 puts us in the range of resistance suggested by what I mentioned above.

     

    Hopeful is that we've had two consecutive days of rising volume.

     

    Discouraging is that the volume trend is lower and this volume may not continue to rise if that resistance around $0.139 is stout. Combined with the buy percentage being just OK, I'm thinking folks are taking some profits, PIPErs are yelling "FREE $, FREE $", etc.

     

    I'll stop here - a lot of thought needs to be put into what happened yesterday - much to consider, from pre-market orders at high prices, much larger average trade sizes and several large trades, ... all while ARCA and the others pushed on price and then withdrew and then pushed and then ...

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • While I can't begin to explain the increased trading volume since October 10th, I think it's far too early to call a volume trend based on 9 days of data.

     

    On October 9th the mean 10-day moving average volume for 2013 was 494,398 shares with a standard deviation of 279,819.

     

    As of today the mean 10-day moving average volume for 2013 is 548,665 shares with a standard deviation of 386.887.

     

    If I remember my basic statistics correctly, today's 10-day moving average volume of 2,451,050 shares is a Five Sigma Event and another strong day today will push it up into the Six Sigma range.

     

    If we are in Black Swan territory I don't know that I'd put too much emphasis on very short term trend-lines. This is way too hairy for me to do anything but watch in shock and awe.
    23 Oct 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Is the swan blackened, or are we witness to the flaming rebirth of a Phoenix?
    23 Oct 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin, Caution - Black Knight bias in symbolic choice!
    23 Oct 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • John, If you're talking long-term volume trend, agreed. My current focus is strictly short-term and the trend suggested is for that.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • @JP: "This is way too hairy for me to do anything but watch in shock in awe"

     

    I continue to watch price/volume and scratch my head. My first instinct was institutional involvement after the NS/Axion conference. Then, I thought maybe the PIPE's were perhaps covering their short positions from their Cayman accounts (I know this is TFH stuff).

     

    In short, this is way too hairy for me to do anything but watch in shock and awe"! .... too....
    23 Oct 2013, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • I'm still watching and still clueless, but it sure is interesting.
    23 Oct 2013, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • The confusing part is that a lid has held on price thus suggesting the PIPErs are behind the volume although they should be out of stock (in a traditional sense). If this was buy side volume coming in from the conference and/or news leaks then price should explode upward. I guess the fact that it's capped under 14 cents makes one wonder if the bottom was put in or not.
    23 Oct 2013, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • @bazooooka:

     

    If I understand correctly, the Buy/Sell (according to H.T.L) has been below 50% this entire (volume) surge. This is what has me scratching my head.
    23 Oct 2013, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • The buy sell numbers seem very logical to me at this point. The PIPErs can sell 60% of any given day's volume (4 different groups times 15%). HTL's latest buy/sell 39.6% to 60.4%. The latest announcement about NSC may have freed investors with inside knowledge to buy Axion or simply spurred investors on the sidelines to jump in. These new investors begin to buy at the ask price. The PIPErs are now able to each sell their 15% at the bid price. Our beloved bottom feeders begin to move up the bid thinking this may be the last chance for rock bottom prices. The volume created by the new investors begins to push price upward. The PIPErs have a limited amount of stock to sell, about 10 million a month. The increased volume prompts the PIPErs to let the price begin to rise. If they run out before the next issue of stocks, the pps could take a nice gap up.

     

    If the new buying interest continues, with the anticipation of the promised PbC sales in the next three weeks, we could possibly see JP's supply and demand theory take over.
    24 Oct 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • but until PIPE runs out of shares (including shares due from future payments) pps isn't rocketing up. i am glad the PIPE folks didn't push hard at 10 cents.
    24 Oct 2013, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • JVeal: "... given day's volume (4 different groups times 15%). HTL's latest buy/sell 39.6% to 60.4%".

     

    Don't get to enamored of that split. Remember that MM's will also be in the market acting for themselves and other folks. The strategy of "Sell high and then buy low" gives them incentive to do a lot of selling when prices seem elevated (and I assume they can "see" the market more clearly and more deeply than we can).

     

    On some days the MMs may be responsible for much more volume, maybe on behalf of non-PIPErs than we might imagine.

     

    Just a heads up so you don't get wedged into the TFH, like I tend to do sometimes.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for your input HTL and MM.
    24 Oct 2013, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • I--i-i-i-i-i-f-f-f-f-f... the contractors really show up which they're supposed to , and i-i-i-i-i-i-i-i--f-f-f... they finish, which they should, I will have have 32 KW backup for the winter.

     

    New large concrete pad.
    New large electronic control panel
    New ginormous electrical/magnetic switch
    New 32 KW generator
    New buried LP (now full) tank to feed said generator

     

    Screw You, Ol' Man Winter !

     

    Just wish we'd had a cube, genset, solar array, from Axion ready to go instead of this. :>)

     

    Three cheers for Kohler industrial ! Keepin' me warm and livin' large.

     

    Whooooo- Hooooo !

     

    I now return you to our regularly scheduled programming: "Watching the Paint Dry". Starring Telly Savalas as HTL, Clint Walker as iindelco, Sam Elliott as JP, Tom Berenger as mrholty, Tom Selleck as apmarshall, and the invisible man as our PR department.
    22 Oct 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • After seeing the announcement about Axion and Multilink's joint presentation, I checked out the Multilink website. Surely if they are going to sell equipment with Axion batteries in it, then you should be able to buy the replacement battery from them. But, unfortunately, all they sell is VRLA batteries. Wake me up when you can actually buy one.

     

    http://bit.ly/1a4z4X5
    22 Oct 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker,

     

    The good news about this PR is that it would seem we are finally working with a company, who is already established in the telecommunication industry, to try and get the PbC into that market. We used to talk about this being a target market years ago, but this is the first time I've seen any suggestion we are finally going to be able to sell into it. Since the PbC is not a drop-in replacement for a VLRA battery, you probably aren't going to see it for sale as a stand alone battery on their site, but it will need to be sold as an integrated system like it is for the PowrCube and the Hub. But as you said, I'll feel better when the PbC actually shows up on their website as a product for sale in such a system that they sell.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech. It will be tough to sell a system that you cannot buy replacement batteries for. My workplace maintains a network of about 75 remote rain gauge stations and the tech who services them probably replaces about 15 or 20 LA batteries per year. I don't think they would consider buying a power supply system if they could not have quick access to replacement batteries. Sure, the Axion batteries should last practically forever, so they won't need replacements, but the people who buy these systems won't be conviced of that until they see it in the field.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not expecting a new product to show up on the website immediately. Equipment manufacturers in old traditional sales channels don't view it as a priority the same way as those who rely on online sales. When I worked for a sensor company they had a fresh graduate update the site after everything was said and done.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • I'm not sure what they are showing at the conference, but there is nothing in their catalog or website that even has a PbC battery in it. Maybe next year's catalog?
    22 Oct 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Just put in a call to Axion seeking info on the Multilink product using PbCs on exhibit in Atlanta. Was advised that Dantam was the one to put the question to on his return from Atlanta.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • I would like to see a PbC show up in the Multilink trailer:

     

    http://bit.ly/1eGvqBW#
    22 Oct 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • A nice short article about ePower with reference to JP on Craig Shields website:

     

    http://bit.ly/19YBZL0

     

    I offered a comment with more details and a query about a crowdfunding opportunity as a means to invest in ePower.

     

    geopark
    22 Oct 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • >geopark ... Keep us posted on this "crowd source" funding. Thumbs up or down it is interesting. Though, after reading JP for years, I don't think he is a fan because of expense & complexity ... but who knows, something could come of it. I've wondered how something like it would be structured or even how the existing crowd sourced enterprises are actually structured to be fair to all investors and as small a burden as possible to the target company.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • >DRich . . will do. Crowdfunding is a new concept to me, don't know anything about structure etc. but I like the idea and as I learn more I will share, esp. as relates to ePower.

     

    geopark
    22 Oct 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • >geopark ... A few years back John mentioned a shareholder group that didn't pan out to go into the financing round on Axion. I was never clear just how that might have worked. For all I know know it could have been a "crowd source" ETF or a tontine.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • >DRich . . tontine is a new word to me, wiki'd it, interesting. My first reservation about any crowdfunding investment would naturally be trust. If JP was on board, that issue would be solved for (lazy DD) me.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Crowdfunding is still very difficult and the applicable regulations are far from settled. I'd vastly prefer a traditional equity offering to accredited investors who understand that they're dealing with a multi-year horizon and no early exit. The biggest problem with Crowdfunding is that crowds grow quickly impatient and dealing with thousands of small holders is a lot tougher than dealing with a handful of big holders.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Appreciate your thoughts John. Seems like an entity would be needed to deal with the 'crowd', including pre-buy disclosure etc., which would ideally leave the 'fundee' with just the entity to deal with. Guessing this might be less difficult for a private vs. a public company.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • The SEC has reams of regulations that apply when a company sells stock to small investors. If an issuer limits an offering to accredited investors, there are no specific disclosure requirements because big investors are presumably able to fend for themselves and request all information they consider relevant.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • geo ... Crowd funding rules adopted by SEC are pretty restrictive and investors limited opportunity to share directly in success of the company financed. Crowd funding strikes me as holding little to no prospects for raising funds to finance ePower Engines.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • "The SEC has reams of regulations that apply when a company sells stock to small investors."

     

    But, JP, don't you know they are taking care of us.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • That's the theory ...

     

    I've always preferred investors who can understand the risks, do their own diligence, and write six figure checks. Satisfying the nanny's idea of what investors need to know frequently results in information overload, which is every bit as dangerous as too little information.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • >D-inv . . suppose you're right about "little to no prospects for (crowdfunding) ePower". I suppose once crowdfunding became involved the company would become a public entity and subject to the SEC. Just thinking/wishing there was a way to walk around the barrier, like this:

     

    http://bit.ly/1eGArdD
    22 Oct 2013, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • geo ... I commented yesterday on the misguided understanding that SEC had already issued final rules on crowd funding and my perusal of conditions of offerings detailed on established online crowd funding enterprises such as indiegogo.com (http://www.indiegogo.com).

     

    http://yhoo.it/HeUPYq reports that SEC will issue final rules on crowd funding today.
    23 Oct 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • I know that it means nothing but Multilink has one of the larger booth spaces at the event.

     

    http://bit.ly/160h6BT

     

    Look for booth 1754. Right next to Cisco so it should have good foot traffic. Can't find any presentation they are giving so we wait.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • About MultiLink: "The Company is currently supplying existing products to the fifty largest CATV MSO's with products that have evolved over the last fifteen years."

     

    Currently they only offer VRLA batteries in their catalog.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Right across from it is Aurora and Corning. I think they are in a very high traffic area.
    22 Oct 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting award of island microgrid contracts to Princeton Power in Hawaii:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ac8TMo

     

    They will be using some type of batteries. After seeing a couple PP inverters at the Axion manufacturing plant, I asked one of the engineers if the PbC referred to in the Princeton Power specs refers directly to Axion or lead carbon in general. He said it referred directly to Axion.

     

    Generally solar is not Axion's sweet spot, but maybe there is something there?

     

    Another interesting Hawaiian solar article:

     

    http://huff.to/1acc1Yp
    22 Oct 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • IIUC Hawaii Pacific will pay for and operate the microgrids, making money on the difference between the agreed-upon rate and their production cost per KwH. This model provides an incentive for the builder/operator to choose the storage solution that has the lowest LONG-TERM cost (which includes replacements). Given what we have seen, the PbC should be a very attractive choice for projects that follow this model.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Here is the spec sheet for the PP 100kw inverter. If you scroll to the second page and look at pre-configured battery applications, the spec sheet refers to PbC.

     

    http://bit.ly/1eGAXIM

     

    Here are some short case studies on three of their installations:

     

    http://bit.ly/17e7ma6
    22 Oct 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan- Thanks for that. Unfortuately of their three case studies they have not used PbC yet.

     

    Alcatraz - Lead Acid (AGM)
    EaglePicher - Advanced Lead Acid and Li-Ion batteries.
    San Diego Scripps Ranch - Lithium-Ion
    22 Oct 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Is there a way for outside investors to make money by purchasing batteries for installation at independent sites? Banks are sniffing around. Unfortunately, most of the case studies that I have read have thus far concluded otherwise.

     

    http://bit.ly/17ea3sj
    22 Oct 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Has anyone suggested that India might be the source of the [hopefully] upcoming Axion sales announcement? Vani is from India. India appears to be considering going into storage in a big way:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bTj8EB

     

    Just a guess.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Gwp,

     

    India is not an offshore island as far as I know ;)

     

    Upcoming Axion sales are specifically coming from offshore islands which suffer high retail electricity costs and which are looking to energy storage systems as a way to redress this issue. Speculation on my side is either Hawaii, or Puerto Rico
    22 Oct 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • India has 400 million people off their power grid and it is not economical to connect them to the grid but rather "island" them with renewables and storage. And they are off shore. TG may be being clever.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • India is not an offshore island as far as I know ;)

     

    It was at one time....just been a while:)
    22 Oct 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • New York Stock Exchange could delist ZBB Energy

     

    http://bit.ly/1eGI9EJ

     

    On Monday ZBB received a letter from the exchange informing the company that it’s not in compliance with three listing standards:
    • “The Company," according to the SEC filing, "has sustained losses which are so substantial in relation to its overall operations or its existing financial resources, or its financial condition has become so impaired that it appears questionable, in the opinion of the exchange, as to whether the company will be able to continue operations and/or meet its obligations as they mature.”
    • The company reported stockholders’ equity of less than $4 million as of June 30 and net losses in three of its four most recent fiscal years.
    • The company reported stockholders’ equity of less than $6 million as of June 30 and net losses in its five most recent fiscal years.
    .........................

     

    Since there are many similarities between ZBB and AXPW, I wonder if any of the above could have any relevance to Axion's near-term situation. Any thoughts? --- Thanks.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • A new investor presentation from Axion including the new CFO in place of Trego:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bTki2V

     

    Interesting to note, that Axion is attempting use information in a generic fashion to inform investors of what it is doing:

     

    - Stop/Start Initiative with a Diesel Engine Manufacturer

     

    - Additional Heavy Duty Truck Initiatives with OEMs and
    Independent Fleet Operators

     

    - Developed proposals and continued work with off shore islands
    consortium that includes: residential storage, charging stations,
    commercial solar with storage and residential solar with storage

     

    - Began Large Off-shore Island Initiatives as Preferred Vendor with
    Local Utilities Commercial and Residential Projects

     

    - Began Initiative with Large Off-shore Defense Contractor on
    Multiple Projects Worldwide

     

    - Forgot to mention that they are currently working with 5 or 6 automakers as stated by Vani at annual meeting.

     

    - Forgot to mention that they are in advanced testing with a large OEM system integrator that we have yet to identify.

     

    - Forgot to mention what is going on with the large Asian OEM.

     

    - I could keep going, but I hope the new CFO reads this post and grabs the ball.

     

    This is the same drum that I have been beating for a long time. I appreciate all of JP's hard work in promoting the company, but Axion needs to start blowing its own horn - there are ways to do it without violating NDAs.
    22 Oct 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe its time to get a more aggressive PR house to write the investor presentations for Axion. Whomever is doing right now just doesn't get it IMHO...
    22 Oct 2013, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Thx, Stefan.

     

    I wonder who the target audience is.
    22 Oct 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,
    " Forgot to mention that they are currently working with 5 or 6 automakers as stated by Vani at annual meeting.
    - Forgot to mention that they are in advanced testing with a large OEM system integrator that we have yet to identify.
    - Forgot to mention what is going on with the large Asian OEM.
    - I could keep going, but I hope the new CFO reads this post and grabs the ball."

     

    One comment. As I read it, the list on the new presentation is for "Recent Developments" not ongoing projects. So while your list is correct, it may not have been what they were trying to emphasize with this list. IMHO
    22 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Some bullets are more informative than others.

     

    Tom has previously spoken of a stop-start initiative in trucking, but this is the first time I've seen anything that says the initiative is with a "Diesel Engine Manufacturer."

     

    I know that Axion set up the proving ground meeting between ePower and Big Red where 20 or 30 of Big Red's engineers studied the tractor and its series hybrid drive for a couple hours. I also know that Big Red is throwing a lot of support in ePower's direction as we work to integrate a used big red engine into our third-generation prototype.

     

    Since Big Red has a 44% market share in the diesel engine market and Big Yellow has decided to withdraw from the on-road engine market, that's a BMW and NS class connection.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Its a very generic presentation that I would give to a Chamber of Commerce or some other group. I like the idea of it as it would be the first thing I would read if I came accross a news release and I wanted to decide if I wanted to buy shares in the company.
    Add a little language on the size of the respective markets.

     

    Railroads: 30k locomotives in Tier I companies in NA. Average useful life of 20 years means potential market of 1500 locos/year. Estimate of 100% TELCO space is 20% or 300 locos year. 50% of that market is 150 loco or 150k batteries or $60M in revenue annually. Etc.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • >JP .... Oh, goodie. Another wall of wet paint to watch
    22 Oct 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah DRich, but Big Red is a horse of a different color and diesel engines are very tough on starter batteries, particularly in package delivery. I also think that heavy stop-start will be simpler than automotive because the hotel loads are fewer and space isn't usually an issue. The testing and validation period required to prove that the PbC is a big step up from flooded and AGM is entirely different from the testing and validation associated with an upgrade from Gen1 automotive stop-start to Gen2 automotive stop-start.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech -

     

    My counterargument is that the stock is trading between .10 and .14 and getting hammered with shares by the PIPErs. Axion needs to be emphasizing anything that will pick itself up out of the gutter without violating its precious NDAs.

     

    Earlier in the presentation, on slide 5, they make a few bullet points about ongoing projects. Additionally, Axion's selective memory when discussing projects makes it difficult to determine what is on going and what may have died in silence. See generally, Rosewater.

     

    Ultimately, my comments are intended to nudge a company to awake from its PR slumber.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Quite right about that. Here's hoping that this coat is of the "quick" dry variety. I would like talk product over paint any day of the week.
    22 Oct 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • JP
    IIRC Cummins is checking out ePower to see if they will sell the next gen motor (and I think combined generator) to ePower.
    From your comment I assume that is continuing OK. ?

     

    In a year or so will we likely see a gen 4? OR
    Is it a totally indefinite timeline like we've had with the others?
    22 Oct 2013, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • ePower has a couple objectives with Cummins. We want to become a Cummins authorized OEM which will move us into a factory-direct pricing regime instead of distributor pricing. We also want access to some of their coolest new technologies like the rare earth permanent magnet generator. We've been getting a lot of support from Cummins as we work our way through integration issues on the Gen3 tractor. The OEM approval process is more complex and will probably take another six to nine months.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting. Tks for the update John.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • THX JP
    9 months sounds like heaven compared to 4 years gone and indefinite to go.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • I don't expect an answer from JP but: why would Cummins not just acquire ePower?

     

    In which case, how awesome would it be to be the exclusive battery technology supplier to Cummins for their series hybrid class 8 trucking solution?

     

    Juss' sayin'.

     

    D
    22 Oct 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Internet companies will frequently pay up massively to get some sort of perceived technology edge. That kind of behavior is very rare with large industrial companies. The odds that ePower and Cummins could come to a meeting of the minds today on something as critical as price are very remote. It's a lot like the rhetorical question of why one of the battery big boys didn't just buy Axion. Until you can get to a meeting of the minds on price nothing else matters.
    22 Oct 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • JP, is there anything to suggest that a "battery pack" arrangement of PbC would be kept separate from the starter battery for Big Red applications? A high energy starting system and an operations pack for OTR function.

     

    Knowing zero about the subject, the question arises. Save the energy cube from grinding starts and save the starter battery from yo-yo operations?
    22 Oct 2013, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting that my system can not open the document. Get an error message reading,

     

    "This XML file does not appear to have any style information associated with it. The document tree is shown below."

     

    Will try downloading from the Axion web site.
    22 Oct 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Executive Summary on slide 3 raises questions IMM re-where Axion stands with Multilink. Telecommunications market is not mentioned. Neither is UPS are standby markets (mentioned in slide 23)

     

    From the slide,
    "Growing customer base across end user markets, specifically
    transportation, utilities, renewable power, and government/defense ."
    22 Oct 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan,
    "Ultimately, my comments are intended to nudge a company to awake from its PR slumber."
    Not disagreeing at all about anything your said. I'm just pointing out that the list in that part of the presentation was trying to get investors excited about all the new things that have happened recently, and that was the point of the list. IMHO
    22 Oct 2013, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • OT: But since we had discussed texting hazards, I thouhgt us senior types might be safer if we knew the GATCS (Generally Accepted Texting Codes for Seniors) were.

     

    Thanks (I think?) to my daughter who sent this to me.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aEhbJx

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • LOL! Will share that with a few folks. Thanks, HTL.
    22 Oct 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • The pps "ceiling" of today and yesterday 0,1350 seems to be broken now
    22 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • and the last hour or so 0,1350 has been the bottom.
    At this speed we break through 0,14 tomorrow.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Poul: Today is looking more what I expect of a "pop". One example, buy % through 15:26 is 65.2%.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • WHOA NELLIE!

     

    ADVFN (InvestorsHub) "Trades Screen" is mis-classifying because their application had the bids and asks reversed for a loooong time.

     

    E.g. showing bid $0.135 and ask $0.1303 from *at_least* 14:27 onward.

     

    I'm going to have to go through the whole 271 trades and manually classify as to "buy" or "sell".

     

    I should have suspected something was wrong when I first muttered to myself "Man, this is looking way stronger than we have a right to expect".

     

    Might be delayed getting my EOD stuff up.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    If it's not one thing, it's another.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Oct 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Crowd Funding Rides Again: If ten folks on this board were to write a $10K check that would fit into JP's target as a funding unit.

     

    I suspect the ten from this board would have a very very difficult time establishing that they were not sophisticated enuff to understand the quicksand of PP. And everybody posting here has known of ePower from the very beginning.

     

    Get HTL to host us on his server and we post individually for $100 / year. Talk about fun ! And the name-calling could get truly personal. Kewel Beans !

     

    Not sayin'.

     

    JP ? One reserved unit for silliness ?
    22 Oct 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Only 10k from 10 of us? What is he gonna do with only 100k? And what would we get in return? Cause 10k worth of AXPW may be worth a bit more sooner than later. I hope......
    22 Oct 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • That's not a good discussion topic for an open forum, but there are some possibilities.
    22 Oct 2013, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • For some UNKNOWN reason, I stopped by the ya"fool"dle message board. An axion bull had posted this from an article in the WSJ on the 18th of Oct.

     

    " It looks like Axion has finally made it from the R&D phase to the capitalization phase.
    Notice in the article, it says "new technology", and then mentions lead acid. So that is most likely PbC. There haven't been any advances in energy storage that would fit this narrative.

     

    GM just announced that, BMW made their announcement, and Norfolk Southern has announced their success and where they are going. Then there are the truck fleets that will be converting over."

     

    True or not, I like the speculation. Of course, those on the Ya-fool-dle board didn't take kindly to it.

     

    22 Oct 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • Didn't your mother warn you about venturing into bad neighborhoods?
    22 Oct 2013, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Raleigh, What was the cost to drive on the troll road? ;-P

     

    I once used that as my primary board but slowly the fly paper picked up more and more maggots until you couldn't communicate over the buzz. Not to say there couldn't be one or two good people still there but it's just not worth wading around in the excrement.
    22 Oct 2013, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • I agree. I was curious, after reading some of the negative comments on JP excellent article about Axion being an excellent nanocap opportunity. I wanted to see if the same people were posting on Yahoo. didn't see them...but saw a lot of other vulgar posters. There were a couple of Axion boosters there, too. Kind of like the Alamo for them, though....
    22 Oct 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Translation-Frequency regulation. And response time matters.

     

    Duke Energy looks to use battery technology for more than storage

     

    http://bit.ly/1eHmtIA
    22 Oct 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • The easiest way to make stationary storage work economically is to aggregate as many revenue streams as possible. For example you could have a system that bought cheap power after midnight, provided FR and/or renewables integration services during the morning and early afternoon, dumped the bulk of its energy during evening peak demand and then started the whole process over after midnight.
    22 Oct 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • John, Understood. That was one of the points made by one of the system integrators that contributed in the forum that Vani has been to a couple of times in NYC. Looking at the opportunities for time shifting, peak shaving, power quality, back-up etc. All these services bundled as part of the justification process.

     

    On a non-related note I saw an article recently with a proposal from an Australian concern. I thought it rather interesting but I couldn't find it again after I declined to post it right away. It essentially tied the level of service desired to a tiered cost structure for the energy consumed. For example, If you wanted a 100 amp service to your home you'd pay x cents/kWH, a 150 amp service x+y cents/kWH and so forth. During the rare peaks the lesser tiers would be constrained on available power. As we know this does not occur very frequently on most grids. So in effect the system would be structured to shave peaks by limiting supply which is far more manageable for the grid operator. I think it's a good idea.

     

    I will not get into the social aspects but there are some as you can well imagine.
    22 Oct 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Petersen noted in the "On The Move" list on Green Tech. Media.
    :-D.

     

    http://bit.ly/1eHv6ms
    22 Oct 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • It's nice that somebody who didn't owe me a favor noticed.
    22 Oct 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • I just noticed Multilink is partnered with Cummins for it's UPS generators.
    First video 2 min in.
    http://bit.ly/1608D1q
    22 Oct 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Nice find, frog. Interesting linkage - ankle bone is connected to the shin bone, etc.
    22 Oct 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • NS 999 picture taken 10/14. Still appears to be just sitting there. Note the one access panel removed.

     

    http://bit.ly/1eHEfeF
    22 Oct 2013, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • maybe they are cannibalizing it for parts.
    22 Oct 2013, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • metro,

     

    As a new engineer, I could not appreciate this more.

     

    G
    23 Oct 2013, 01:02 AM Reply Like