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  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
     
    Indelico

     

    Agree

     

    But is that really a decent trade off for TG

     

    Am I first
    29 Oct 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca, Not looking to place odds or rationalize such a move. Just one possibility of many even if I consider it an improbable one.
    29 Oct 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    another 7:30am goes by without a press release... <shrug>
    29 Oct 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1939) | Send Message
     
    What is significant about 7:30 AM?
    29 Oct 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    In the paint drying Olympics, Axionistas are the team to beat.

     

    We all have had the blink muscles surgically removed. Eyes as dry and tough as golf balls...
    29 Oct 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fancy Pants
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    That's when the press releases are released
    29 Oct 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    There is no magic witching hour for press releases until a company makes it to the big leagues. Everybody tries to release news before the market opens, but that's about all I can say on timing.
    29 Oct 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    I'm beginning to wonder if my patience is a virtue, or a character flaw.
    29 Oct 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    lol - most sane people ask me the same thing on this topic.
    29 Oct 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    tripleback,
    Better not let the information leak to the pentagon that our stares can kill goats.
    29 Oct 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • brianfscott
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    The recent pattern seems to be after the Friday closing bell?
    29 Oct 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Axion has EVER put out a press release after the bell on Friday. That time-slot is always reserved for bad news.
    29 Oct 2013, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    John, I would agree that Axion would not want to announce news on a Friday afternoon, but was the Rosewater announcement of UL approval on a Friday afternoon?
    29 Oct 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    I just checked myself. It was on a Friday morning, Jan 4, 2013. See concentrator 193.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    29 Oct 2013, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Third!
    29 Oct 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    I don't want to crush the bag of tortilla chips here, honest. However it seems we've gone ahead and beheaded TG for something he hasn't done, and may not do at all. Also, I recognize that to many here I'm much too tolerant of TG's prediction misses. To be honest, I find the man to be of immense energy, seemingly of great character, and obviously very very intelligent. I am in fact willing to be exceedingly annoyed with a delayed announcement of "significant sales" because I suspect the customers are foot dragging. But that will not cause me to attack the man. So I am willing to accept many of you casting asparagus at my views. HOWEVER:

     

    Even though I have serious reservations about TG's opportunity to announce significant sales by 15 November (the next presumed cc) I'm still scratching my head over our conclusions over a deadline.

     

    If I recall correctly (an increasingly rare event with the passing of each year), the question on this board was asked, "When is the next cc?" The reply returned that last year's was 15 November. TTBOMK, there has been no announcement from New Castle that this year's date is the same. Seems to me we are softening up the noose and lubricating the trap door for a date that could easily be the first week of December or thereabouts. Our countdown could be way off, and our shorts could be all bunched up for an event date assumed on faulty logic.

     

    Am I missing something here?
    29 Oct 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1120) | Send Message
     
    Valley-
    The quarter ended at the end of September. As filings for the q have to be to the SEC by the 15th it would make sense that it would be the latest date to have the call.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I wish TG and Axion would crush the bag of tortilla chips.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The 10-Q is due 45 days after the EOQ, which means it must be filed by the close of business on November 14th since October is a 31 day month. Axion usually files it's SEC reports late in the afternoon, which is why I'm looking for a conference call on the morning of the 15th.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    "it must be filed by the close of business on November 14th since October is a 31 day month. Axion usually files it's SEC reports late in the afternoon, which is why I'm looking for a conference call on the morning of the 15th. "

     

    Usual and customary practice to hold a CC the same day, or morning after, filing 10Qs. Then there is LINE/LNCO giving us a fine, current demonstration of the lack of any real legal requirement re- scheduling or even holding a CC.
    29 Oct 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    There is no legal requirement that companies have conference calls. The rules only prohibit "analyst only" calls. That being said, a quarterly conference call is generally considered good practice.
    29 Oct 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    I wish to "cast asparagus" with some of views about the CC.

     

    I hope to hear from the new CFO. I recognize the slow drip of news about Axion has been painful for all investors, but I look forward to hearing from someone who should have a fresh view of things.

     

    I believe, previously, TG has been burned by the changing needs of very large companies. Hence, virtual radio silence about sales from NS and BMW. Now, TG and VD are speaking about Cubes in the next year. I think this is evidence of a better understanding of communicating a sales path, but I see the possibility of more questions than answers from the CC.

     

    It may seem perverse, but Enron was a great company and stock until it wasn't. I understand they had a great conference call every quarter. I am just glad I didn't own that stock.

     

    Still buying,

     

    Fleet
    29 Oct 2013, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1935) | Send Message
     
    It would be really amusing if Axion came out with a sales contract of around its total Market Cap right now, you would see the pps go up several hundred percent in a matter of two weeks or so...
    29 Oct 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Mr. Holty. The 15th is the reasonable date using the SEC rules.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
     
    It is because I respect TG as a prudent and careful man that I expect an announcement of commercial significance by the CC and likely earlier

     

    Note what we all want to hear is an announcement of cash significance. Moreover that the cash is expected at AXPW in the near term and likely that it will be followed by more sales and cash.

     

    That said I do expect something more along the lines of earlier discussions. It takes time to know of an order - have confidence that it will be firmed up by a certain date.

     

    My point - TG already knew of something he could count on for the next CC

     

    Not far off now - expect any day - eyes like golf balls (like that)
    29 Oct 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    "crush the bag of tortilla chips" . . now that's funny, Thank you!

     

    Just wondering if this is a Valleywoodism or an obscure line from Three Amigos.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1594) | Send Message
     
    ya know, geo -- I'm beginning to think someone should start compiling those 'Vallywoodisms' . . .
    29 Oct 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    Good idea obie . . it would certainly break the boredom from 'watching the paint dry' . .
    29 Oct 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    I already have....the book will be titled "Into the Valleywood".
    29 Oct 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1831) | Send Message
     
    That line did NOT come from the Three Amigos. I will anoint myself the resident Three Amigo expert.

     

    Hopefully, TG didn't just "shoot the invisible swordsman"

     

    But.... "I'm still here El Guapo!"........
    29 Oct 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    10/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 104, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 564849, AvTrSz: 5431
    Min. Pr: 0.1230, Max Pr: 0.1315, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1267
    # Buys, Shares: 46 203299, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1275
    # Sells, Shares: 58 361550, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1262
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.78 (36.0% "buys"), DlyShts 136699 (24.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 37.81%

     

    The only significant things, I think, are the trading breakdowns, the fact that we've hung around the 50-day SMA an additional day, likely due to ARCA being late to the party ...

     

    "Late-day weakness continues to be the rule it seems. The trading was so sporadic and bunched that it's almost not worth showing [the breakdown by time], but for the fact that you can tell right where ARCA showed up during the day – 13:50. It disappeared for a while around 14:00 and reappeared around 14:58 and remained active for the rest of the day".

     

    http://bit.ly/HdyjhL

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • footleg
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, my trading platform (TradeKing) says that the Next Earnings Announcement is 11/21/13.
    29 Oct 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Footleg: If it's like ETrade, that's a "best estimate". I've seen a lot of those from ETrade that get near the mark, but still miss when the announcement finally comes.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Kind of an interesting discussion on California's proposed storage:

     

    http://bit.ly/HdzUUP
    29 Oct 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Appears to be a good resource on PJM frequency regulation market:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/m27...

     

    Appears to discuss performance scores. Will need to take a closer look at later.

     

    "Figure 1 below illustrates that seventy percent of the fast moving resources (RegD, shown in green) have performance greater than 0.90 throughout the first year."
    29 Oct 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    Busy also and with a brief look over note in Axion's favor that the paper states that the fast moving resource market is thinly populated, i.e. not many suppliers and that the statistics would be skewed by one producer.
    29 Oct 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Metro: "fast moving resource market is thinly populated".

     

    Which mean to me that if PJM and Veridity had good results with AXION, as the score would indicate they did, there's a *lot* of opportunity there if Axion can get sales folks out there with Veridity to introduce the market to what's possible.

     

    Since Viridity is one of our long-standing relationships in that area; since the scores Axion has achieved are quite good; since the fast-moving market is substantially unaddressed thus far; it makes sense that Viridity and Axion both would see opportunity there.

     

    This leads me to think "significant sales" might come from here before any sales from a new consortium of island-based customers and/or providers.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    This paper was a little deep for me. But the following indicates to me that the FERC rules for payments is screwed up for the Axion type fast response providers. Any opinions as to what it means would be appreciated.

     

    Because there is currently only a small group of fast moving regulation providers, some may see this as no cause
    for alarm. However, current resource owners in PJM as well as developers will find a multiplier starting at 3.1 a
    powerful incentive to enter the market following the RegD signal. Resources must consider the costs of this strategy; traditional resource equipment will be damaged by following a signal too fast for mechanical processes.
    Also as more resource owners request to become fast moving regulation providers additional time will be added to
    connect resources into the network, test resources and support member questions.
    Conclusion
    The implementation of Performance Based Regulation occurred on October 1, 2012 making significant changes to the pricing of energy, reserves and regulation as well as changes to the structure of the regulation and reserve markets. Overall, the implementation of the Performance Based Regulation h
    as been successful. System control remains at the same or better performance as measured by CPS1 and BAAL despite reductions in the regulation requirement. Fast moving resources participated in the market and were an increasing part of the Regulation
    Market. Regulation clearing prices have increased, but this increase is due to exposure to Lost Opportunity Cost
    which previously had been outside of the pricing and mileage which is part of the Performance Based Regulation
    changes. As PJM prepares to implement the final piece of the Performance Based Regulation changes, the mileage ratio for the fast moving performance incentive compensation, there still remains lingering doubt about this new method for market settlement as it misaligns incentives with the true operation of the system and creates an unbounded market settlement value for fast regulation resources
    29 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1511) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,
    My take, in another quick read, as have a bottle of red waiting to be opened, is not really negative, but that the process of payment could be improved. Not really exciting reading, probably won't make the NYT bestseller list, but considering it is my money, will have a go at it later.
    29 Oct 2013, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Re: Viridity

     

    The Viridity website has two items from last spring which may be of interest to investors of AXPW.

     

    1) News article link from 3/7 which says more or less 'gone to Texas'
    2) PR release from GDF Suez from Houston on 4/3 that announces a relationship with Viridity. The text of the PR ends "battery storage, and automated control and measurement technology"

     

    Is it sales for AXPW? no

     

    But, Both Viridity and Axion have a history of not announcing anything until they have facts-on-the-ground.

     

    If I was an energy executive in Texas, I would do lots of testing for any lithium storage in summer heat. So, maybe, the "new" lead battery has a chance.

     

    A guy can hope anyway.

     

    Fleet
    29 Oct 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    PJM reports on page 6 in the second paragraph: since October 1, 2012 companies with "fast moving resources ....has grown from six to nineteen". I believe Axion has been getting the DR signal for at least that long.

     

    With grid storage beginning to get traction, PJM data over the past year could be very, very important for Axion.

     

    Fleet
    29 Oct 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Fleet -

     

    Good thought. Mitsui is also a large company that is involved with Viridity and GDF Suez.

     

    http://bit.ly/1f2n9bw

     

    GDF SUEZ Energy Resources will be a key strategic advisor to Viridity Energy in evaluating and analyzing customer load and behavior for year-round demand response events. In return, Viridity Energy will use the retail electricity supplier's supply and trading capabilities to monetize actionable load opportunities for customers. Both companies will take part in a pilot project targeting several large commercial and industrial power users utilizing standby generation, battery storage, and automated control and measurement technology.

     

    http://prn.to/1f2nBXg
    29 Oct 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1f2oHCr

     

    Being an island community, Miyakojima City still derives most of its electric power from a diesel generator. The next challenge is to take smart city to a new level of energy sustainability, and next year the nearby community of Kurimajima Island will pilot an ambitious program to switch entirely to solar power, using solar panels with a total capacity of 300 kilowatts on the roofs of residential and public facilities combined with a community battery for overnight storage. If successful, this will be an important step towards the reduction of carbon emissions, as well as towards energy independence for similar communities.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    300kw is about the size announcement I have been anticipating, really...

     

    Mention of 4mw has not been repeated recently.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Complete and utter speculation:

     

    If indeed Axion was able to gain a foothold, through the Viridity connection, as a preferred vendor to a Mitsui/GDF Suez consortium with a determination that the consortium needed to implement some level of storage at their many renewable energy installations. whoa, I would be impressed.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    How many batteries in 300 kw ?
    29 Oct 2013, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >LT ... Less than a full sized PowerCube, which I think is around 1k.
    29 Oct 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    LT, Also remember there are different size standard battery packs.
    29 Oct 2013, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    I like that "gone to Texas". Reminds me....Davy Crockett, after having the political rug pulled out from under him by his fellow Tennessean, President Andy Jackson, was bidding fairwell to his former constituents who had voted him out of office. He told the gathering, "Y'all can all go to Hell, as for me, I'm going to Texas!"....then he got himself killed at the Alamo.
    29 Oct 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Mitsui is a "strategic investor" in Viridity Energy and has representation on Viridity's board.

     

    http://bit.ly/HoPuxg
    29 Oct 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    According to the Rosewater Group spec sheet on PowerCubes the PbC batteries used are form 30HT and hold 0.5kWh energy. Implies 600 30HT PbCs would support 300kW.
    29 Oct 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    This time a year ago, I was worried that AXPW might "take off" before the first of the year when I'd be able to add substantially to my holdings. I considered the stock one of the most certain winners and best reward-risk ratios I'd ever discovered in my investing career.

     

    And now, with AXPW at less than half its year-ago price, as one frustrating day gives way to another, week gives way to week, month gives way to month, leading to a gradual realization that the word "soon" in the Panglossian lexicon of Mr. Thomas Granville means something entirely different than what most people would infer from the word, we are left to wonder about the meaning of "significant" in that same Panglossian lexicon. I will not be shocked if Mr. Granville fails again to deliver on his latest "promise" (express or implied).

     

    I am as bullish on Axion's technology as ever. I give Granville all the credit in the world for developing the technology and bringing so many power players to Axion's table. And I still have faith that AXPW stock will one day be the huge winner I've expected from my first purchase of the stock. I believe this will happen in spite of the character limitations of Axion's CEO.

     

    My concern with the limitations of Mr. Granville as a communicator involve the honesty of his communications to shareholders and his inability to sell to others an investment story that most of us regard as quite powerful.

     

    It isn't necessary to tell bald-faced lies in order to qualify as a less-than-honest man. Someone who gloats about a Rosewater connection at inception but fails to address a break-up of that association when it occurs deserves to have his credibility questioned. Someone who consistently exaggerates anything positive while ignoring or minimizing anything negative invites the conclusion that his comments can't be trusted.

     

    The disastrous PIPE financing should have been the first topic addressed on the latest conference call. But for an ego-driven man who cannot admit to making a mistake, best to ignore this most salient development altogether. Beyond the very serious character issues raised by this reality is the question of why a CEO who had indicated that the next financiing would be with a strategic investor did not have more than one possible strategic investor lined up (or at least another alternative to the vulture "investors" to whom TG ultimately turned). The same instincts that have led TG to avoid becoming dependent on any one customer should have led him to avoid dependency on any one possible strategic investor. I, for one, was hoping investors would have denied him the increase in authorized shares he requested until he began delivering on his promises. .

     

    Successful negotiations are everything for a company like Axion at this stage of its development. Let's hope other negotiations are conducted with more insight than was evident in the latest financing negotiation.

     

    In my experience, reverse stock splits almost always lead to price declines. Most penny stocks trade at a premium to reasonable value because a universe of unsophisticated "investors" think "cheap" is a matter of absolute price rather than the relation between price and reasonable value.

     

    In the case of AXPW, however, where the stock seems so manifestly cheap relative to solid fundamental prospects, I wonder whether a reverse split might lead to price gains by making the stock more accessible to institutional investors.

     

    AXPW is not trading below 15c because Axionistas are bottom feeders or because they insist on criticizing a CEO who richly deserves to be criticized. It is trading below 15c because of a horrible financing mistake that created a powerful incentive for new investors to drive the stock to even cheaper levels, and because of a CEO who has been unable to deliver positive fundamental developments that might have been able to mute the pernicious effects of that ill-conceived financing.
    29 Oct 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    Alpha,

     

    Well stated, I agree completely.

     

    The current question for me is did TG know at the time of his "predicting" that his significant orders would not come in until the remaining few weeks or days prior to the Nov 15th CC?

     

    If so, he sure loves to put his shareholders through loads of anxiety and concern. If not, then he either is going to give us a very exciting time in the very near future or he will prove once again that we are very gullible and we bought into another one of his false predictions!

     

    I guess we only have 13 more business days to realize the truth! This story has more drama than any other story that I have going on in my life! So I guess that is a good thing since I do not care for drama and this should have a little more clarity within the next 13 business days!
    29 Oct 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I've walked far too many miles in the shoes Granville is wearing to even think about criticizing the timing of multi-million dollar buying decisions or the choice of one financier over another. Without full access to all of the facts that influenced a decision there's no way to know whether a particular decision was good or bad.

     

    Sometimes it's better to dance with a demon for dollars than to sell your soul to satan for a few dollars more.

     

    http://bit.ly/1irBHBp
    29 Oct 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1594) | Send Message
     
    I have for a couple of hours now, been trying to find a picturesque metaphor which adequately captures the futility of Alpha and RB's remarks. And I have failed. The image of a river keeps coming back to me but I can't make the metaphor work.

     

    With respect, I completely disagree (with Alpha and RB) -- solely on the basis that re-examining and re-hashing what has been is like trying to step into the same river twice. It can't be done. I understand that it is human nature to seek explanation and to fill-in-blanks when information is lacking. That's why we have religions and pseudo-sciences.

     

    A lot of us keep going on about how much we believe in the technology . . . and I think justly so. Yet, for the most part (at least, as I understand it), the same people who brought us the technology back then are also the people running the company going forward. If we believe in the tech -- ought we not believe in the people who had the vision and the blood, sweat and tears to bring it as far as it has come? We simply do not know what all the choices were and how hard they worked (as JP has rightly said) to avoid the worst of the bad deals they were faced with to keep the dream alive.

     

    I wonder if too many have spent too much time here being judge, jury and executioner without having access to the complete picture. That's just not fair to *all* the people who are stakeholders in Axion -- be they management, directors, staff, workers, shareholders AND present/future customers.

     

    What is the point of constantly bringing up the PIPErs?? It's done. Let it go. They aren't running the company. They may have artificially (??) and temporarily suppressed the stock price but they are not the ones making the long-term deals which will enrich us in the long run. It is easy to sit out here and second guess. I, in my own limited way, understand just how hard it can be making those decisions when you're sitting in the BIG chair.

     

    TG is, so far as I can make out, the point-man for a lot of people working pretty gd hard to make it happen on their watch. I think they could use our support. From the top down and the bottom up.
    I'll bet my bottom-dollar (in fact, I have) that he's human and he puts his pants on the same as any other. I'll bet he wouldn't mind if a few people eased up off his back -- particularly if they no real experience or benefit other than barking at him about things that can't be understood from the outside. And like it or not, with the exception of JP, we're all outsiders.

     

    And I have one thing I want to shake his hand over (and all the rest of the company, too) -- they could have folded up shop and quit. But they've kept the dream alive and each day it gets closer to breaking out on the up-side. I am very grateful for that and to have the opportunity to participate, even if watching and silently rooting for them is the best thing I can offer.

     

    Okay, that's off my chest and I've no Valleywoodisms to lighten the load. Let the slings and arrows of disagreement fall upon me but I just had to write something.
    29 Oct 2013, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I totally agree with your wisdoms regarding walking in the shoes. I found myself stumbling along in uncomfortable shoes in a few of the positions that I occupied in the past. I am certain the positions were not as complicated as TG's but I would insist that similar characteristics are in play.

     

    I am of the belief that if you do not know with absolute certainty about the near future events then one is better off taking the heat and expressing just that instead of making uninformed predictions and loosing your followings faith! To me that just seems to always be bad policy. I do not believe that a person who shows a negative pattern should be allowed to keep applying the same principles. I believe the people that create a history of saying something and it comes true and then they repeat the same process over again. The same works in reverse, you fail and then repeat and then do it again, how could I ever be expected to trust again? I believe the biggest difference in our opinions regarding TG is the fact that you have history with TG and I do not. All I have to go on is your recommendation of him along with some interaction in conference calls and such and the fact that what he predicts to come true has not done so with much accuracy during some important chapters in this story.

     

    Wth all that stated, I am still a long term believer of the tech and continue to have hope for my stock holdings but I sure wish my trust in TG was on a higher level! I am definitely anxious for the day that TG deserves to be up there!

     

    If TG comes through in the next 13 days I will kiss his ring but if not my faith will be totally rocked with TG, not Axion!

     

    Come on "Significant Orders"!
    29 Oct 2013, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (803) | Send Message
     
    Ob,

     

    Axion has lost in one way or the other key employees that helped invent, engineer and automate the manufacturing of this technology. There may be many reasons why they are no longer involved but one of the overall accepted reasons seems to be that their expertise was no longer needed as the story has progressed past their skill set. I believe that we all understand this and to me the important question is this; does TG possess the needed skill set to make this start up company successful? Many CEO's are replaced in corporations when the company evolves into the next chapter and an additional skill set is required to direct the company. It is not a function of failure but one of responsible management. I imagine that JP will agree that he takes on a company for only a certain portion of the life cycle and then moves on.

     

    My concern is with TG's unproven skill set during this exciting chapter and so far he has taken a few swings and has missed. It may not be baseball but too many misses will still mean your out! Unless of course we get lucky and TG blasts one out of the park and he brings in 3 significant "runs". Come on "Babe"!
    29 Oct 2013, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I can't tell you the number of times in my life that somebody has given me an iron clad performance deadline that I've worked like a madman to meet only to have things go on hold at the 11th hour because some essential signature wasn't available because of a family emergency or other important event, like an accountant's vacation to Hawaii.

     

    They're only a little less common than somebody negotiating acceptable transaction terms and then demanding something entirely unacceptable at the closing table when the only choice is to sell your soul to the devil or walk away. In most cases my clients didn't have the intestinal fortitude to walk away from insufferable terms. I've seen Tom do it a couple times.

     

    Caving to pressure that does not and cannot understand the facts is the cowards first recourse. I was surprised when Tom made a date specific promise. I was more surprised when he reiterated that promise at the stockholders meeting. I expect performance or an explanation.

     

    Continued harping over ancient history as a basis for current disbelief is pointless, even though it was a favorite tactic of one of my ex-wives. I think the term I used in her case was shrew, or maybe something more colorful.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    Although there is reasonable disagreement over how well TG copes with the assumed changing time-frames and requirements of his potential customers, financiers etc I don't think there can be much disagreement with AM's "It isn't necessary to tell bald-faced lies in order to qualify as a less-than-honest man. Someone who gloats about a Rosewater connection at inception but fails to address a break-up of that association when it occurs deserves to have his credibility questioned. Someone who consistently exaggerates anything positive while ignoring or minimizing anything negative invites the conclusion that his comments can't be trusted."

     

    It is this aspect of history "re-writing" (well, "forgetting" if I'm generous) that I can think of no excuse for.
    30 Oct 2013, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I like the guys at Rosewater, but you're inflating their importance to Axion beyond reason. Everybody and his brother in law is out trying to push storage solutions to the retail customer. None of them are having any real success because storage systems are expensive, the economics are unclear and the retail customer doesn't have the foggiest idea what he needs or wants. Unless I missed something, Rosewater did not bring a big stack of orders to the table when it arrived on the scene and it did not take orders off the table when it left.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    DT,
    Since we aren't privy to the goings on concerning Rosewater, anything said is speculation. You may deduce, guess or speculate, but only certain people know and they aren't talking. Point is, that management has to deal with the situation in a manner they deem appropriate in a business like manner. This isn't a soap opera or a mud raking (he said/she said) divorce court journal.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    S.D.: "Since we aren't privy to the goings on concerning Rosewater, ... is speculation".

     

    LoL!

     

    Somewhat ditto for Axion! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Hiya HTL,
    I never expect to have the total and complete picture as an investor like I would as a manager. Even managers have to make decisions without complete info, only using best available info at the time with some intuition (gut instinct) thrown in. Tough position to be in to be second guessed all the time, easy to be an armchair Quarterback. ;-)
    It's easy for me to smile, I'm not the one in the hot seat.
    30 Oct 2013, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    JP and Stilldazed re Rosewater:
    " you're inflating their importance to Axion beyond reason" I, like AM I believe, was using them as an example of the absence of TG's follow-up, this wasn't meant to emphasise Rosewater specifically.

     

    "What if it wasn't a break up but a cooling off period, point is, we don't know. "
    Exactly my point I think, "we don't know".

     

    [Axion is not shown on Rosewater's partner page, which is not exactly representative of the state-of-play as described by TG according to my CC notes; my enquiry to Axion about the current state of play in June was not responded to.]
    30 Oct 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    DT,
    My point is that investors will never know everything they want to for many different reasons, like maybe delicate negotiations (as an example). These are management problems, not investor problems. Yeah, we might want to know, but we don't need to know.
    30 Oct 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    S.D: "easy to be an armchair Quarterback".

     

    Amen brother!

     

    But it's also important to be one when it's *your* money on the line.

     

    =>8-O

     

    Some folks complain about our speculation, apparently forgetting it's a double-edged sword.

     

    No speculation = no $ invested in the stock. $ invested in the stock = speculation about the items affecting the potential results.

     

    It's not only human nature, it's the right thing. The hard part is to keep it all somewhat reasonable.

     

    When I was much younger I invested in a small start-up with a good idea. Went to investors meetings and some folks now had questions that were indicative of second thoughts.

     

    I, in my infinite wisdom at the tender young age and degree of optimism that often accompanies lack of experience, piped up and said "Look, we believed in the idea - nothings changed so why are we having second thoughts now".

     

    Management applauded me and a few months later the company folded as they had mined all they could from us.

     

    I've never forgotten that. But I've also used it as a learning experience, not a fear-inducer.

     

    My *hope* is that my negative considerations remain in the realm of "reasonableness", along with my optimistic thoughts.

     

    The short point, for me, is it doesn't matter who is in the driver's seat - a healthy, but reasonable, skepticism should be expected and, I think, is not in and of itself "heat".

     

    What negates that last thought is we all have egos and I'm sure it's very difficult to not feel some "heat" when things don't go as expected and you know it looks bad.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I agree that it requires a common sense balancing act. Easy to say, hard to do.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    RB, I agree with you 97 1/2 % on CEO lifecycle vs company lifecycle. There is that 2 1/2 % though . . .

     

    An impertinence is when folks bring up the "exception example" and I understand that. I'll go ahead and fart in the tent on this one whilst begging your forbearance.

     

    Consider Apple. Great start, and then Jobs' intransigence was clearly destroying the company, his top lieutenants left in droves, and he was fired. The spiral continued and Jobs was brought back, just in time for his bull-headed attitudes and vision to align in precision with the stars and his customers. Clearly now he's gone again, and the sharks are circling once more, this time with Carl Icahn leading the school.

     

    Axion went public much too early. One could call that a huge mistake, or one could acknowledge that the Gordian Knot of Axion at that point was so snarled that to ensure its survival (with its attendant technology) Alexander's sword was drawn and it became public. Enter we.

     

    We are holders of a corporation that most likely should still be private. I would LOVE to be a stakeholder of that original private enterprise, but instead I am a holder in the public corporation. It was simply the only reasonable option at the time to take the company public.

     

    I tend to take the same view now. I despise the plumbers and have personally told TG of my distaste for our current situation. I have full faith however that he did what he though best. Lacking evidence I will never ever have, faith in our leadership is what I have bought into.

     

    I wish TG had never mentioned "significant sales". I wish he had never said, "you will hear from us soon." He is however an optimist. A visionary, if you prefer. And sometimes visionaries are thrown out at precisely the wrong time.

     

    Perhaps TG is manipulating the company for selfish purposes. I think not. I find that idea lacking. The money he is losing on stock options is stunning. He'll bring us around and I really want him in the corner office when the worm turns.

     

    But I have become an optimist on such things. When Steve Jobs was re-hired my younger son told me to load up. Sure wish I had. But back then I was a skeptic. Not any more and not with Axion.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed "investors will never know everything they want to for many different reasons", in the Rosewater example TG could publicly update the outlook without explaining the reason, in my mind that would improve his credibility, and the same kind of argument applies to other loose ends. [Of course having the reason would be better.]
    30 Oct 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Business relationships warm and cool over time. ePower is a perfect example. In 2010 when I made the first introduction the parties could not come to terms. In 2012 they could and did. Sometimes relationships simply have to wallow until the time is right.

     

    There is no good way to describe why any relationship isn't working at a given point in time and public discussions of details usually degenerate into a he said - she said flame fest. Several of us have heard first or second hand about Rosewater's complaints. I think Axion is doing a better job of avoiding the temptation to burn bridges.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    John,
    For me personally, the disappointment over the Rosewater debacle was that, we all assumed when Pic and the others put the whole thing forward, and it got talked up by both Rosewater and Axion, that they went into it with a understanding of what the market was and that there was a definite need/desire for the product. We then went from waiting for UL approval, to an unveiling and award at a trade show, to having the project dropped in six months. The only partial explanation we ever got was a comment by TG suggesting that Rosewater wanted to help push sales by lowering the price of the unit, and asking Axion take a loss on the sale of their batteries. To which Axion said thanks but no thanks.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I really hope that the offshore islands consortium that Axion is referring to when it says it is a preferred vendor to an offshore islands initiative is not Rosewater. Apparently, Rosewater self describes itself as an energy storage consortium.

     

    http://bit.ly/19azbON
    30 Oct 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    It would seem unlikely, especially since the presentation says that their Hubs are battery agnostic, but doesn't list Axion as one of their suppliers on slide 14.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    VW,

     

    Whatever you just did in the tent, it smells kinda rosy to me.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, Exactly. I thought at the time that the parties had a better understanding of the market and it would lead to some level of orders in short order. Given Rosewater's background I feel had good reason to believe this. I was dead wrong.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I know, but IIRC - TG mentioned that Rosewater could be back in the fold at the annual meeting - what that means, I have no idea.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • DaveT
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    John, I don't understand why argue so strongly against the revelation of internal problems and RW specifically rather than saying what you think about the original point as to whether TG should be more forthcoming about the lack of progress (for whatever, unstated, reason) of previously announced initiatives and re-stating what the current prospects are.

     

    This is not to do with what orders Rosewater didn't have in-hand and then walk away with, or what dirty washing doesn't want airing, but what we make of a CEO when we don't usually get told what the current outlook for various earlier initiatives is, let alone acceptance that earlier outlooks have failed.

     

    I want more confidence that the company is being as transparent as it can be, rather than, as we know, hiding news (changes in outlook) that it doesn't like.
    30 Oct 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    I "think" it means that Rosewater knows the abilities of the PbC, and since they are battery agnostic, that they still could use the PbC as a battery option for their system if the specs from someone who wants to purchase their Hub would require it. I compare it to ePower somewhat. They tried everything else they could not to use the PbC, because they thought it costs too much. But it's still cheaper than Li-ion, and if the other batteries don't pan out, they could still come back if someone is willing to pay a little extra for a product that works. IMHO
    30 Oct 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    DaveT> Like most things in life business initiatives tend to run hot and cold and cycle positions from the front burner to the back to the counter-top and then back to a burner. Occasionally you're blessed with a situation like the NYSERDA contract where your partner goes bankrupt and you can identify a date of death. Everything else is somewhere on a spectrum from low to high priority. Hells bells, Tom didn't even burn the bridge with Exide, although it was clear that he'd strung some concertina wire for protection.

     

    When I discuss business I focus on what my current priorities are because they're my now and my immediate future. I see very little utility in post-mortem examinations of things that might be dead, but could also be bubbling away on a back burner. After all, ePower spent three years on a back burner and it's turning out wonderfully.
    30 Oct 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    Rosewater is the one who gave the impression that they would be able to sell the Hub into their market.
    That they couldn't buy batteries from Axion; at a price Axion could make money at; should not have been a surprise to them.
    (As they had a long term connection of past employees working together.)
    I could blame Axion for not spelling out the price better I suppose but I blame Rosewater for the problem.

     

    Would you build something, then go to a supplier and say essentially: "We Priced this, based on you losing money?"
    (While we make money!)

     

    I don't see how they could think that would fly.....
    Unless they hoped the company would be pressured into it as they had already told their stockholders about it.

     

    While the mess was somewhat disappointing, I never really believed there was the large group of willing buyers they seemed to think there is. At best it looks like some tiny sales to me.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, frogg. Rosewater also clearly skirted the boundary of 'truth' if not outright misrepresent the residential HUB product in advertising UL certification in July/August, well before such certification was a reality. Rosewater has little to no credibility with me.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Bay
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    "I considered the stock one of the most certain winners and best reward-risk ratios I'd ever discovered in my investing career. "

     

    What, I wonder, gave you this impression? Was it your own due diligence? Or somebody else?
    31 Oct 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    "In the case of AXPW, however, where the stock seems so manifestly cheap relative to solid fundamental prospects"

     

    I'd venture a guess but this seems to be what is keeping a lot of us from running away from AXPW and it is a very valid point to why the company and the tech are still around after so many years.

     

    How could anyone not be interested in a company like this, from the beginning I've looked at the tech and the business model as being very solid.

     

    The only thought that has ever been in my mind about TG and the board is that they would rather have stayed private and don't really care about the shareholders.

     

    I mean with all the power on the board wouldn't they have golfing buddies that would have ten mill in a sock drawer willing to give them a great financing deal.

     

    Is there anyway that the company could go bankrupt , be pulled from being listed and go back to being a private company under a new name and using the tech with all the patents still in place.

     

    Very paranoid I know but with all the crazy back room deals going on now a days over a green piece of paper with companies it hard to tell sometimes what is to far fetched.
    29 Oct 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tomcat818
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    I think expectations on TG maybe unwarranted given his resume. He has never ran a publicly held company according to what I was able to find:

     

    * CEO of Gallagher Elevator Co. 17yrs
    - small private company 20-50 employees 1-5M revenue
    * 25 years as construction\development executive
    - no reference to what company(ies) he ran.
    * Managing partner of Cable TV company sold to Comcast
    - no mention of what company and I could not find documentation to confirm.

     

    I don't believe TG has golf buddies with 10M or even 1M itching to throw at fairly high risk investment. Apparently the other members of the BOD do not have connections to angel or venture capitol or those avenues have dried up.

     

    I think TG is in over his head trying to run a publicly held company something I'm not convince he has ever done.

     

    I'm not sure if he's been involved in a start-up environment and had to raise venture capitol before?

     

    It's a mute point regarding replacing him since the company has no real executive appeal so chances of attracting a better chief are slim and none. IMHO
    29 Oct 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    No experience in getting funding From stock sales: except what he's had with Axion.
    Which would explain why he went with the pipe at the banks recommendation.
    Gee who'd of thunk it?
    As JP said, he did it once.
    Until you know, you don't know.

     

    Experience is what you have, after the fact.

     

    And yeah he needs to communicate with shareholders better.
    Which is something else he has never done before.
    29 Oct 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1151) | Send Message
     
    >RyanBell --- "The only thought that has ever been in my mind about TG and the board is that they would rather have stayed private and don't really care about the shareholders."
    .........................

     

    Precisely my concerns; thanks for articulately this point so succinctly.
    30 Oct 2013, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Someday stuff.

     

    RFP: Southern California Edison Seeks Energy Efficiency, Demand Response…

     

    http://bit.ly/1ayW8tD
    29 Oct 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Personally, I would NOT like to see a reverse split. I think the market generally views a reverse split as a last gasp and grasp at the lifeline. I also think that the multiple would be limited WHEN the share price starts to grow (through a psychological effect). as regards to TG's statement that we will have significant sales by the next cc. It could very well be that the sales he was projecting are actually going to take place close to the cc. He as easily could have said that significant sale will happen the end of September, or mid-October, if that is when he thought they would occur. One thing that was observed during the annual meeting was the stacks of carbon sheeting, there were reports on here of shipping received of that sheeting, the report of the attendees of the activities at the plant. I think all of these factors indicate that something is going to happen soon. Maybe not by the conference call, but shortly thereafter. I still think we are in a good position to reap the rewards when the orders do come. I am somewhat bullheaded, though...
    29 Oct 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, I tend to agree with you. But:

     

    ISRG did a 1:3 split and that worked out well. (or maybe it was 1:10?)

     

    If a reverse is done while company business is accelerating and an idea seems good, that split is seen as a good thing.

     

    Assume we climb to a dollar based upon business performance. A reverse of 1:5 would get us to the $5 hurdle required of many mutual funds and the notice of money managers. That would be nice. :>)
    30 Oct 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh
    I don't really see a RS.
    Assuming 200 mil shares say 10:1 then we would have 20 mil shares to trade.
    This seems too small a number to get any interest from the big boys.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1151) | Send Message
     
    >Tomcat --- RE: "It's a mute point regarding replacing him since the company has no real executive appeal so chances of attracting a better chief are slim and none. IMHO"
    .........................

     

    It seems to me the same "bullheaded" tenacity most of us Axionistas display has to do with the appeal of investing in a company with a truly revolutionary technology, and the tremendous prospects it offers for the environment and our wallets. I can't think of why a potential executive wouldn't find this just as or more appealing. --- To clarify, I'm not advocating TG be replaced this very moment, but I do think his status as CEO deserves ongoing consideration.
    .........................

     

    Thanks Alphameister for your great post. Reviews many factors as to why TG's status should be under review. I think this short paragraph of yours bears repeating: --- "My concern with the limitations of Mr. Granville as a communicator involve the honesty of his communications to shareholders and his inability to sell to others an investment story that most of us regard as quite powerful."
    29 Oct 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • tomcat818
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Wayne - no doubt there would be executive types interested in taking the helm but I think the we would be talking about a wading vs Olympic pool of prospects.
    29 Oct 2013, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Interesting consortium re: offshore projects:

     

    http://bit.ly/1f2atSb

     

    The worst part of my posts is that I really want a reason to get behind TG and Axion.
    29 Oct 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1151) | Send Message
     
    >HTL --- RE: "Which mean to me that if PJM and Veridity had good results with AXION, as the score would indicate they did, there's a *lot* of opportunity there if Axion can get sales folks out there with Veridity to introduce the market to what's possible."
    .........................

     

    HTL, would your comments make a good case for Axion to contract with an outside sales firm to contact some of these potential customers? I may be all wet here, but I can't help but think an independent sales representative would drool at the prospects of marketing the PbC and earning substantial commissions on their sales. It seems independent sales reps wouldn't necessarily need in-depth technical expertise, and could contact many more prospective customers than Axion could hope to do on their own.
    29 Oct 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    WiO: The only problems I could see with that is the effective reduced margin on the sales. A *potential* problem *might* arise if the reps with lack of in-depth technical expertise might cause misunderstandings of the appropriate configurations for a particular application, thereby causing some undesirable effects, such as customer dissatisfaction before the sale (perceived "bait and switch" when the real design and contracting work reveals that what they thought was the right configuration is replaced by the correct one) or after installation the system doesn't perform as understood.

     

    But if those customer issues can be addressed, the reduction in realized margin might be justified.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    If a quarterly conference call is not required, what is the guaranteed way to make sure there will be significant sales before the next one?
    Here is the psuedocode:

     

    boolean conferenceCallRequired = false;
    Date date = new Date(); // today
    int significantSalesThreshold = getSignificantSalesLim...
    int quarterlySales = getSales(date,'lastqua...
    if(conferenceCallRequi... {
    response .= "Schedule call. Explain sales";
    if(quarterlySales >= significantSalesThreshold ) {
    response .= "buy some after euphoria settles down";
    }
    else {
    response .= "doubleDown";
    }
    } else {
    response .= "Please Wait. No CC scheduled";
    }
    return response;
    29 Oct 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    John: Do we need to debug it, do scalability testing, roll out alpha and beta versions first?

     

    Shall we follow the OSS model and let the guinea pi ... er users do our alpha QC ?

     

    ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    P.S. Is the an app for that?
    P.P.S. We could just follow the ACA roll-out model.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Just like the new government health care site for Obamacare. Wing it. :(
    29 Oct 2013, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
     
    Alpha and Wayne

     

    Thank you good posts

     

    We seem to have a CEO who may be learning "on the job" in some areas (communication, finance, perhaps bull headed at times)

     

    That said - who is perfect. More importantly he would seem to be deeply committed to making AXPW something special, basically honest - and certainly not stupid. Dare I say tough minded too

     

    He has a strategy. He has a vision. We may all go up in smoke with him - but not for his lack of trying to do the right thing.

     

    Lastly, if his vision and strategy see the full light of day - you can thank TG for that very nice jump in your net worth

     

    29 Oct 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (424) | Send Message
     
    Once again, sliding into oblivion, volume wise.

     

    Sigh.
    29 Oct 2013, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Another company I’m investing (speculating?) in, is Cellceutix (CTIX), a clinical stagebiopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and commercializing drugs to treat unmet medical conditions. What initially attracted me to this company was the market potential of their anti-cancer drug Kevetrin, anti-psoriasis drug Prurisol, & the frugal, laser focused targeting of their respective clinical trials & the prominent medical institutions that are conducting the trials.

     

    While the current CTIX market cap is 11 times more than AXPW, it has no sales to date. Despite no sales, it was able to get $10 million in stock based, NON-pipe like financing in 2012 from Aspire Capital. Aspire Capital just doubled down, providing $20 million to CTIX.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1cp...

     

    I went to the Aspire Capital web site and I was impressed with how they described their approach to providing “innovative investment structures designed for publicly traded companies whose prospects are bright, but who need additional capital to fuel their growth.” While they may not be able to pull AXPW out of its pipe, securing early post-pipe financing would be another needle mover for me. So how do we get our new AXPW CFO Stephen Graham to check out Aspire?

     

    http://bit.ly/1cpCHZy
    29 Oct 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Automotive stinks. Up until a few years ago it was systems, systems, systems.

     

    CORRECTED-UPDATE 1 -Johnson Controls seeks to curtail auto interiors unit

     

    "Oct 29 (Reuters) - Johnson Controls Inc said on Tuesday that it will curtail its large automotive interiors business, which lost money in the most recent quarter, and focus under its new chief executive on the company's faster-growing segments.

     

    Milwaukee-based JCI said it would "explore strategic options" for its automotive interiors business, which Chief Executive Alex Molinaroli said will not be eliminated."

     

    "As the company curbs its automotive interiors business, it will add focus on areas that Molinaroli said have the best chances for growth - its automotive battery line and its power management systems for buildings."

     

    http://reut.rs/16IkILc
    29 Oct 2013, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5705) | Send Message
     
    Inde, as you have stated before about auto profit margins

     

    Just goes to show you how tough it is to make money off the automakers. Even JCI cant' do it.
    29 Oct 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    LT, For many when times are good the margins stink. When times are bad they are really bad. I consider the auto sector to be a public works programs for governments. JOBS.
    29 Oct 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The bright spot in JCI's business is Power Solutions. Battery sales grew by 38% YOY, represented 15.4% of its Q4 revenue, and generated almost 25% of divisional profits. The segment margin for Power Solutions was 19.4%, which is great when you consider the losses they're generating from lithium-ion operations.
    29 Oct 2013, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    From InPlay... Tesla Motors and Panasonic reach agreement to expand supply of automotive grade battery cells. The two companies have reached an agreement in which Panasonic will expand its supply of automotive-grade lithium-ion battery cells to Tesla. With this agreement, the two companies update and expand their 2011 arrangement to now supply nearly 2 billion cells over the course of four years. .
    30 Oct 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg is reporting that Panasonic will generate up to $7 billion in revenue from the new contract. That works out to $3.50 per cell or about $30,000 for the cells in an 85 kWh battery.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1aT0v1b

     

    Unless Bloomberg is blowing smoke up our skirts on the value to Panasonic, Tesla will be paying a good deal more than the $250 per kWh that currently passes for gospel in urban legend circles.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1782) | Send Message
     
    John,
    It also suggests that the price of their battery packs aren't going to be magically coming down in price anytime soon. I always love the comments on your articles involving Tesla, where the writer will suggest that St. Elon will have the problem of high battery costs fixed with a wave of his hand, yet in truth, he doesn't buy batteries with any of the new chemistries, but instead uses Panasonics cells and assembles the packs in his factory. I can't wait to see how he is going to build an "affordable" $55,000 car that has a battery pack that will allow the car to get 200 miles/charge. The price of the components just don't add up.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    Panasonic will supply 2 billion lithium-ion battery cells to the Palo Alto, California-based automaker in the four years through 2017, the Osaka-based company said in a statement today. That compares with about 200 million units shipped for Tesla in the past two years, according to Chieko Gyobu, a Panasonic spokeswoman.

     

    2 Billion cells / 8,000 or so cells in the MS is 87,500 cars through 2017.

     

    That seems a bit short for Gen III

     

    PS
    Does anyone have a number for the cells in a kWh?
    30 Oct 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    This post says 12.24 Wh/cell.

     

    http://bit.ly/16N2keU
    30 Oct 2013, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1081) | Send Message
     
    frog, last time I checked (10 seconds ago), 2x10^9 / 8x10^3 = 2.5x10^5 or 250 000 packs with 8000 cells each ;)
    30 Oct 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Any way to use these li-ion figures to construct a to-the-customer all-in ballpark cost comparison to the PbC? Perhaps for, say, large stationary applications. PowerCube level. And/or auto s/s.

     

    Or maybe a recent comparison has already been presented here?

     

    This blog's assumption has long been that li-ion is more expensive than the PbC, at least when the PbC is produced in some more volume. I believe it myself, but the scarcity of supporting data has been a weak point of the AXPW investment analysis, IMO. I and others often fall back on the difficulty in doing enough of an apples-to-apples comparo to be helpful. But I believe that li-ion and PbC overlap in some important applications, and Axion continues to criticize li-ion, so there remains significant investment value is assessing this battery competition as best as reasonably possible. Perhaps that remains a grid of attributes, but sure would be helpful to also have some more cost/price info.
    30 Oct 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I - that part of the analysis has been more of a li-on has to do all this other stuff so PbC must be cheaper.

     

    The only two real cost estimates that we have on a PbC as I recall is from the NS order and from the Hub brochure.

     

    As I recall we worked the number down close to $450 per .5 kw/hr battery. If the math is correct, that would make it $900 per kw/hr.

     

    I am not so sure that is a wonderful comparison against li-ion, but I will let others with more developed thoughts comment further.
    30 Oct 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    While I generally love a challenge, I'd shy away from that one because there are so many fuzzy assumptions and variables that the final work product would provide very little useful information.
    30 Oct 2013, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Thx guys. Looks like a descriptive attributes grid is still the best we can do. In that regard, didn't Vani recently say/write that li-ion often needs 2x the capacity to do the same amt of work as PbC? I can't find that reference anywhere, though. If true, that is a cost comparison biggie.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    John, Did ePower get any lithium ion quotes for their application prior to going with LAB and finally PbC? It would be nice if you could get this, if it exists, and give some kind of gross lithium vs PbC comparison.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Mr Investor> At the stockholders meeting Vani said that a lithium-ion installation would need twice the capacity to do the same work as a PbC. While that statement probably would not hold up for energy applications like renewable time shift and arbitrage, it's almost certainly true for the rapid cycling applications like renewables integration, rail, trucking and stop-start that are Axion's target market.

     

    Iindelco> Jay spent a lot of time studying lithium-ion quotes and spec sheets before deciding they simply couldn't do the work at an affordable price. I'd be surprised if there was a report in useful form that Jay would share.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Figured some work was done and was hoping you might have seen something that could give generic data for comparison. Seems the gap was so wide it didn't need deep analysis.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Lithium-ion will always win when size and space are mission critical and money is no object.

     

    For companies like ePower that are developing a system that has to succeed or fail on its economic merit and pay for itself through fuel savings over a sensible pay-back period, cost is a mission critical constraint.

     

    We figure a 10 to 30 month cash on cash payback will make the ePower system economically attractive even if it is good for the environment.
    30 Oct 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Just wanted to remind everyone, who's keeping a descriptive attributes grid for assessing the PbC competition, of these two favorable battery decisions made by actual customers:

     

    --NS actually used one other type of lead-acid, then evaluated a lot of other battery types for the electric yard loco and chose PbC, and

     

    --ePower actually used 2 other types of lead-acid, considered adding separate ultracaps and now we also know via JP that they considered li-ion, too, and yet they chose PbC (the recent gen).
    30 Oct 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    You're right Nicu
    I first had it a 7 billion cells when it was $7 billion. I apparently had a brain malfunction and just moved the decimal point.
    30 Oct 2013, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1571) | Send Message
     
    >At the stockholders meeting Vani said that a lithium-ion installation would need twice the capacity to do the same work as a PbC. While that statement probably would not hold up for energy applications like renewable time shift and arbitrage, it's almost certainly true for the rapid cycling applications like renewables integration, rail, trucking and stop-start that are Axion's target market.>

     

    That strikes me as a very important and powerful statement, especially if there are not too many qualifiers that have to go with it.
    This story is still compelling!
    30 Oct 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    10/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up already).
    # Trds: 96, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 542552, AvTrSz: 5652
    Min. Pr: 0.1233, Max Pr: 0.1300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1274
    # Buys, Shares: 61 301680, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1283
    # Sells, Shares: 33 224872, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1262
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 16000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1267
    Buy:Sell 1.34:1 (55.6% "buys"), DlyShts 184438 (33.99%)

     

    Well, something different today. The decrease in volume and daily short sales faltered. Today's trade volume was down -3.95% but daily short volume was up 34.92%. The daily short percentage readings from 10/18 onward are 37.47%, 31.13%, 28.29%, 21.82%, 27.81%, 22.69%, 24.2% and 0.3399 today.

     

    I began to suspect the short sales would be up as I watched the buy:sell develop strongly to the buy side today. This has been the pattern when volume is relatively low and there's a lot more hitting the offers than the bids.

     

    ARCA acted differently today. After coming on-board at 10:55 or so, they didn't immediately start trying to always be at the front of the offers queue. For a long period they let BTIG, NITE, CDEL and ATDF take those positions. The most aggressive they got, up until 12:25, was to share top billing. From 12:25 to just before 15:27 the pretty much dominated. But they never got real aggressive with pushing the offer lower.

     

    I wonder if JP's thought that the PIPErs might be out of shares for now could be the cause in this behavior change. My TFH suggests that we are just before some more shares being issued and they know they have $0.1018 locked in. So their best strategy here would be to keep price up, draw in buyers and have a better price when they start the next dump cycle. We'll never know.

     

    Trading breakdowns and other stuff here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Over fifty percent buys. {angelic songs}

     

    We'll see when they get their next round.
    29 Oct 2013, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Indelco: but in spite of that, the high was still lower than yesterday. That's sort of a red flag there.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I have to think people are going to get more anxious as we approach the next cc w/o a positive sign. We'll see what happens if the PIPErs get more shares before TG throws us a nut.

     

    But then who the heck really knows.

     

    Then again, we have to sell something at some point. If there is anything the last financing round tells us it's that the market has had enough fluff. Deliver or someone else will. And then we'll be looking over the fence watching someone else pick the fruit from the trees we each started watching at various stages of growth.

     

    "I got a rock!" 8-(
    29 Oct 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Looks like we might get a "rock" today - pre-market bid/ask is lower than it's been recently. If behavior holds, there might be a "hold your position" on the ask until either ATDF gets antsy or ARCA enters.

     

    ATM ask is $0.125, down from $0.127, $0.1259, $0.135, ... going back a few days in pre-market looks.

     

    Bid is also lower $0.125, $0.123, $0.127 but not as much generally.

     

    I think the bid controls initially today. If they rise, the asks should start to slowly back up to higher levels. If not, the action will start to hit the bids, eventually, driving them lower and ATDF, BTIG, ARCA, NITE, CDEL, ... will start moving the asks lower.

     

    Probably a long period of inactivity and lower volume will result unless bids get quickly stronger.

     

    Waiting to support the bids will be the 400K+ CANT bid, combined with 50K from BNCH, at $0.11.

     

    I hope those are serious buyers and not folks just putting on a show to try and force higher prices to benefit you know who.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Through 11:42 - b/a ATM $0.123/$0.1249 ARCA has been here.

     

    # Trds: 29, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 228293, AvTrSz: 7872
    Min. Pr: 0.1205, Max Pr: 0.1250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1233
    # Buys, Shares: 5 32850, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1245
    # Sells, Shares: 24 195443, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1231
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:5.95 (14.4% "buys")

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    I admit
    I expected things before now but I keep seeing advancements.

     

    I don't get 15 days or else!!!

     

    Is there actual evidence of commercialization in the last year?
    More awareness of product in newspapers Journal articles etc in the last year?

     

    I went to the headlines on Yahoo for headlines from last year. (Excluding SEC filings etc.)

     

    Monday, October 29, 2012
    Electric Vehicle Battery Grants, 3 Years Of Disappointment And Failure at Seeking Alpha
    Tuesday, November 20, 2012
    Axion Power - A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward at Seeking Alpha
    Friday, December 14, 2012
    Lithium-Ion Batteries Were A Bust, But Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Are Booming at Seeking Alpha
    Monday, December 17, 2012
    Understanding Economies Of Scale In Battery And EV Manufacturing at Seeking Alpha
    Sunday, December 23, 2012
    How The Micro-hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market at Seeking Alpha
    Tuesday, January 22, 2013
    Eight Breakout Stocks In Energy Storage at Seeking Alpha

     

    There were 6 Headlines, all of these are JPs articles.
    Thanks for all your work JP.
    On March 4 2013 Axion putout a PR; over 5 months wait.
    Have things changed?

     

    Lets look at the last 2 months.

     

    Thursday, August 29, 2013
    Axion Power Announces ePower Electric Hybrid 18-Wheeler, Powered By Axion PbC Batteries, Set For Display And Test Drives At Indiana Green Fleet Conference PR Newswire

     

    Thursday, September 5, 2013
    Axion Power Business Development Executive To Speak At Agrion Global Network For Energy Event PR Newswire

     

    Tuesday, September 10, 2013
    Axion Power's PowerCube™ Powered By PbC® Batteries a Potential Provider In California's Energy Storage Mandate PR Newswire

     

    Thursday, October 10, 2013
    Update Report On Hybrid Norfolk Southern Switcher Locomotive To Be Presented At 7th Annual ASME Rail Conference PR Newswire

     

    Tuesday, October 15, 2013
    Axion Power: An Extraordinary Nano-Cap Opportunity at Seeking Alpha

     

    Tuesday, October 22, 2013
    Axion Power And MultiLink Will Jointly Present Axion's PbC Technology At The SCTE In Atlanta October 21-24 PR Newswire

     

    Again six headlines but this was for 2 months not 5 and only one was an article from JP the other 5 were PRs

     

    OK this is a company moving forward, towards commercialization.
    Pipers? Yes bad. More shares bad. None of that will change.

     

    Do you see it moving forward?
    Do you seriously think it will suddenly move so far forward the Pipers will stop?

     

    I don't. I expect them to stay for more months and I don't see anything that will make a major change to them.
    NSC may build another locomotive before they are done.
    ePower also too long a timeline.
    BMW not likely.
    I don't expect PC sales to drown them in the next few months.

     

    Whether we have Significant sales or not in November I don't see a change.
    While I expect time frames have slipped do to the shutdown I always saw the 15th as insignificant.

     

    Axion, If you just keep plugging away I will be happy.

     

    BTW If you're not tired of reading yet. :-)
    OT
    Borealis (BOREF)- Chorus- WheelTug has a Sept 8th, video where the CEO predicted 1 or 2 sales in a week. Oct 9 was the first sale. Over a month without a shutdown involved. (Not in the US) Yes BOREF has been predicting deliveries of product for years (Now pushed back to 2015)
    They made an "Exclusive deal with SEMIKRON" back in 03 no sales or further mention. (Their second)
    They "Partnered with Boeing in 2004. Boeing if happy would instal it on planes when built if wanted.
    Together they had a successful pre-production version demonstration in June 2005.
    After announcing it on Boeing's site. Boeing dropped it several months later. The article is gone from there as well.
    WheelTug started working with Delta in 2007.
    Delta agreed to install and remove if necessary the motors, to handle maintenance and repair globally.
    Delta no longer exists.

     

    Big question why did Boeing drop out?
    Well, do you believe the CEO?

     

    I believe they are moving forward, As I believe Axion is moving forward.
    Has the CEO missed timelines? Yes for both
    Has this been going on for years? Yes for both.
    Has this effected the future price of the stock?
    Since I got invested in Borealis an MBA I follow about Borealis has dropped his estimate of the share price of WheelTug to one fifth oh his earlier estimate. All due to effect the competition (which is now developing) will have on the profit Borealis will make. (No one has a product yet.)
    This has happened because of the amount of time it has taken Borealis to field a product. (So far.)
    80% is a somewhat greater percentage than I expect the pipers to get.

     

    As I said I see major changes in what the company is doing. I see it moving towards commercialization.

     

    The question for you is:

     

    Do you see Axion moving forward?
    29 Oct 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    I completely forgot about this Dynapower/Axion case study:

     

    http://tinyurl.com/kte...

     

    http://tinyurl.com/lmp...

     

    http://bit.ly/16kCYb4
    I find it interesting b/c Eaton is listed as the power control electronics provider for the PC and there multiple Princeton Power Products at the Axion PbC factory. It appears the inverter was requested specifically for utility applications.
    30 Oct 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Has this PC editorial been posted before?

     

    http://bit.ly/Hex0iC
    30 Oct 2013, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall the PC article from 9/13, but it seems to be written from the Axion press release of 9/10. Axion should hire the writer, though. It reads better than the Allen Caron press release.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Sandia tested a Princeton Power storage solution with Li Phosphate batteries. The electronics worked well, but the batteries expanded/burst by the end of the test.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/17Xsb3Y

     

    The unit is listed as a prototype, but it seems rushed.
    30 Oct 2013, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1151) | Send Message
     
    >Obieephyhm — “I wonder if too many have spent too much time here being judge, jury and executioner without having access to the complete picture. ......... What is the point of constantly bringing up the PIPErs?? It's done. Let it go. They aren't running the company.”
    .........................

     

    I appreciate the above thoughts, and many of the sentiments actually mirror some of mine I’ve had in the past about what I saw as too much Monday morning quarterbacking regarding TG. Regarding the PIPERs, and the point of bringing it up... No they aren’t directly running the company, and I’d love to let it go. But unfortunately, I believe they continue to be highly relevant. I’ve yet to see a clear and concise description of how Axion will definitively weather the possibility of the pps dropping below .10 for an extended period of time.

     

    And who better to be addressing this squarely than TG? But he doesn’t, and doesn’t seem to have an inclination to do so, which I often view as a lack of respect for Axion shareholders. — I have, and can give TG a certain benefit of the doubt regarding some of his earlier predictions, his lack of clear explanations on substantive issues, and for his ending up deciding he needed to do the PIPE deal. Obie and others are right, we don’t know all the details, and I’m willing to accept a certain amount of his “on the job training”.

     

    But here’s what we do know. The PIPE financing has been HUGELY costly. Maxim took an immediate 7.2% off the top ($720K!). Interest continues to be payable on top of the large numbers of discounted shares being issued. Massive dilution has taken place, and a number of ridiculous hooks and vulture capitalistic contract jargon has the potential to come back and haunt us in different ways.

     

    So..., what does TG and top management do with this precious and ULTRA-expensive capital? They give themselves signing bonuses! To me, it gives the appearance of having raided the coffers of their company at an exceptionally vulnerable time, and sends a TERRIBLE message that they are more concerned about taking care of themselves than they are Axion and its shareholders. If they had accepted stock options in lieu of a small percentage of their regular salary at that critical time, it would have sent an ENTIRELY different message, and I would have a much more favorable view of them than I currently do. — Perhaps I’m all wet regarding this whole bonus issue, so if somebody would like to offer some justification for their actions at that time, I would be open to hearing them.

     

    Like some of the other posters here who have expressed frustration and dismay, I really do want to believe TG, and get behind his leadership of the company. I think we all want to believe that this time will be different. But with the specter of a continuing battle between the onerous PIPE terms versus the timeliness of orders and revenues, it’s sometimes hard not to be critical about how we arrived at this juncture, and concerned about how this is going to play out.

     

    I talked much of this over with my wife a couple nights ago, and was somewhat surprised how cool and detached she was about things. She generally has little interest in hearing the nitty gritty of what we discuss regularly here on this board (she does like nitty gritty on good news however), and has a tendency to look further out into the future. She continues to optimistically believe (as do I) that things will eventually turn positive, and once that momentum starts, it will likely continue to build for a very long time. So I will strive to be a little more attuned to her longer-term perspectives, and will likely be more relaxed as a result. So if my posts start to come across as a little more genteel, then you can thank my wife for that!
    30 Oct 2013, 12:46 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    WIO, all excellent points. I'm 100% behind you.

     

    I am convinced however that the business remains sound. We're getting waxed (as stockholders) but the company marches on.

     

    I remain fearful. I acknowledge possible shenanigans. But I remain hopeful.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    >WIO . . nice, thank you (and your bride).

     

    geopark
    30 Oct 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1594) | Send Message
     
    WIO (et. al.):

     

    I appreciate the candor of your reply and wished to post a note before I hie off to University Hospitals for a surgical procedure that will probably keep me offline the remainder of today and, possibly, tomorrow.

     

    While I haven't been in this Axionista pool-party as long as many of you, nor endured the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune on the stock price as some have, I still have one (at least) lesson from my personal background that guides my personal attitudes towards assessing and living with risk on speculative investment. Sadly, a small degree of history needs to be retold, if you'll bear with me.

     

    Long ago and far away, I founded and ran a national non-profit. I had an idea, it was good and it would work -- and, I thought, I could get paid for doing good in the world. For many years, I not only worked without salary or benefits, I also dug (and deeply) into our own assets -- limited though they were -- to pay for things the corporation needed. Up to and including bankrolling the staff payroll on several occasions.

     

    It was easy (relatively) to get attention for our project. Over time, however, I found that my willingness to openly express our plans and dreams and successes only served to fuel competition from those who were far less ethical and willing to line their own pockets at the expense of the sector they were supposed to be serving (as a side note, it may surprise some of you to learn that there is just as much organized crime in the non-profit sector as there is anywhere else). Attention we got. Funding, we didn't.

     

    We developed alternative revenue streams but they were not adequate for the growth necessary to meet the demand and I wanted to help everybody. So I kept digging into my own pocket and, consequently, making my family's situation far, far worse instead of doing what a good businessman should have done.

     

    Then came three events in succession: our first large grant from a major national grantor was surprisingly not renewed even though we exceeded all measurable targets. Second, a multi-million dollar grant that we desperately needed was denied. Worse, our proposal -- literally written by me -- was stolen, slightly re-worded and given to another national nonprofit who was given the money (they subsequently disappeared without delivering any of the promised services). Then the dot-com bubble burst and we lost our revenue streams. On top of that, my BoD and senior staff all, essentially, deserted for one reason or another.

     

    Okay, the point of this (unpleasant, for me) trip down memory-lane?

     

    I nearly killed myself. Not just from the depression and economic hardship I put upon my family but also, being a person with disabilities myself, I managed to make myself very, very, very sick. And I kept going on about all the bad things that happened for YEARS afterward (much to the consternation of those around me -- particularly SWMBO).

     

    Finally, I learned the hard truth -- and I got it from SWMBO, too -- I did the best I could under the circumstances. It's done. Move on. We can crawl out of this hole and we can avoid making the same mistakes again. Quit making glue (beating a dead horse endlessly). Enjoy the ride.

     

    I don't like the PIPE anymore than anyone else. But I simply don't see the point of going on about it anymore. JP has identified that there is, so far as anyone on the outside can discern, a point when their influences ends and that it is unlikely to ever be repeated.

     

    As far as TG goes -- because we don't get our own personal 'nosy-Nate' information fix from him, when and where we want it, he gets derided for not communicating. Truth is, he has to be DAMN careful about what he says for legal reasons, for business reasons, for investor reasons . . . and more. More CEOs have gotten themselves into trouble with loose lips and gum-flappin' than not.

     

    Okay. Maybe I'm in a party of one -- and, believe me, that's not for the first time. But I suggest that we spend more time accentuating the positive than drum-beating the past -- which we cannot change in any case.

     

    Anyway. That's probably too much writing about something not all that important but I wanted to get it out there and thank everyone for expressing their opines without beating each other up in disagreements.

     

    So, I gotta go to the hospital now. See you on flip-side.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Come back healthier.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Good comments and thoughts! GL at the hospital and look forward to your return.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Great story, obie. Thanks.

     

    Lotsa lemons makes for lotsa lemonade, if you're willing to squeeze 'em instead of cry over 'em.

     

    Good luck with the hospital event.
    30 Oct 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    >obieephyhm,

     

    I share some of your history, career and personal, so I can assure you that your not " in a party of one ". I have taken some similar lessons to my benefit and ignored some to my peril.

     

    One area we don't agree on totally is about "drum beating the past". I believe many here could benefit greatly from analyzing some of their past drum beating that exaggerated relationships (Rosewater...) or markets (automotive...) or revenue timing (PC's) that has since become disappointments that have been placed at TG's feet.

     

    TG has his shortcomings and may be THE obstacle to AXION;s success, but much that I read being attributed to him has little basis.
    So goes my opinion!!

     

    And to important matters, I wish you well with your medical processes and second JP's, "Come back healthier."
    30 Oct 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1594) | Send Message
     
    42

     

    I want to be clear that I'm not suggesting that we don't or shouldn't learn from past mistakes. As we all know, history is rife with those who didn't. Learning is a good thing. Reasonable post-tragedy analysis helps me (well, usually) to avoid doing something that once appeared smart but then turned out stupid.

     

    The PIPE is a case in point. I learned important things through the discussions and analysis done here -- much of the meat coming from JP but there were many others who asked/answered questions that helped enlighten me on the 'whys and wherefores' of the . . . er, deal. I also get that, from time to time there will be those new to the concentrator who haven't processed this information and need help in getting up to speed. That's fine. I welcome the occasional need to re-state the history for those who need it.

     

    But there seem to be some who continue to . . . shall we say, 'harp' . . . or emotionally vent on the subject. And, once in a while, I think that's fine. There does, however, seem to be a tendency to continually use the PIPE to beat-up on TG (et. al.) mercilessly as if it proves something long-term poison we're being asked to swallow for his own personal self-aggrandizement (and/or profit). And I just don't see the value in doing that because we can't change what's already done.

     

    Until/Unless Axion senior management does something so incredibly stupid/wrong that I lose confidence in the whole entity, I will not cherry-pick things just to beat up on TG as the visible point-man.

     

    That's me. Others, of course, are free to do otherwise.
    31 Oct 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    frogg < "Do you see Axion moving forward? "

     

    :-) It depends. Depends on whether or not "significant sales" are disclosed before, or with, Q3 quarterly financial data. With "significant sales" share price will rise and PIPEr off take will ebb. Without "significant sales", share price will likely fall below $.10 IMO and PIPEr take out will mushroom.

     

    The question is, Does "I predict significant sales by the next conference call" translate as "If you like your insurance policy you can keep it. Period." in which case it transmutes to "Beyond Redemption" for the messenger(s).
    30 Oct 2013, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    As most of you are aware I have been following ( and owning) Axion since early 2009. Tom Granville and Axion were in a different place back then. Here is what had me and others excited about the future of the PbC.

     

    Starting in 2008 Axion will provide batteries for a 250 kW utility demonstration project. Tom Said:
    ""The basic purpose of the NYSERDA-DCEC project is to demonstrate the feasibility of using distributed battery storage at existing utility substations to provide additional peak power without spending money to construct new facilities."

     

    ( It is now 2013 and no utility has ever used the PbC.)

     

    In 2008 Homeland Defense gave a grant for military hybrid vehicles. "Axion Power International, Inc. (BULLETIN BOARD: AXPW) , an industry leader in the development of advanced batteries and energy storage devices, announced it has received a $1.2 million federal grant, secured by U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire (PA-4) through the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2008. The grant will fund work aimed at the development of new lightweight, high-power batteries for use in U.S. Marine Corps vehicles. "
    ( It is now 2013 and the military hasn't bought the PbC)

     

    The third quarter report from Axion in 2009 was filled with optimism. http://bit.ly/1hteVeN
    The hybrid market was ours to own. Exide was going to sell our PbCs. We just sold the first oil rig application..

     

    ( It is now 2013 and we know nothing of the oil rig market, hybrid vehicles, and Exide filed for bankruptcy.)

     

    The State of Penn. had given Axion $800,000 to work on hybrid vehicles. Axion was going to retrofit pick up trucks and save the US from any oil crisis.

     

    ( It is 2013 and no one talks about the Axion hybrid pick-up conversion kit)

     

    I MIGHT REMIND PEOPLE THAT THE STOCK PRICE ZOOMED TO $2.75 for a one day high. What a great day that was.

     

    Since those times much has happened.
    The utility project went broke. Exide tried to take over Axion and screw the stockholder. It was discovered that the PbC is not a battery for any hybrid except micro hybrids and extreme duty hybrids such as locomotives or semi trucks. Axion had to refocus its market, start cutting expenses, continue R&D, find more money, and try to find a market.

     

    Since then, Axion did manage to mass produce its product. It is still seeking a huge market. It has found the RR industry. It has automotive in the works. Hybrid trucks are actually on the highway.

     

    My point is that TG has navigated Axion through thick and thin. He was smart enough to grab Exide as a partner early. He was smart enough to wangle his way out when they cheated Axion. Axion was a baby company in its operations, visions, and management. It has had time to grow up. It has grown up. We might not have enough money to survive. But to be honest, we should have been gone already. I like our chances now that we can manufacture a product and have real customers.

     

    And some of you want to complain that TG has said nothing except" I will be announcing "one significant order." For those who want to complain about that I say this:

     

    The management of Axion cares about Axion and its shareholders. If you doubt that then sell your shares. It is the most fundamental rule of microcap shareholding. Otherwise you are simply complaining. Speculating is fun. Wishing is nice. But please don't expect a company embroiled in business to stop and pamper to every shareholder's desire. Business first. I like the rest of you hold out hope that an announcement is coming. Hopefully, it will be better than the oil rig announcement of 2009.
    30 Oct 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1935) | Send Message
     
    Futurist,

     

    Now this is a beautiful post...:) I agree with you. We have been to hell and back and when the first real customer comes up, it will be a big relief for everyone!
    30 Oct 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, love that selective memory.
    30 Oct 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (328) | Send Message
     
    WOW, what a thoughtful and sober(ing) bunch of posts which seem to have started yesterday:

     

    alphameister @ 29 Oct, 11:23 AM
    obieephyhm @ 29 Oct, 08:17 PM
    H. T. Love @ 30 Oct, 08:05 AM
    froggey77 @ 29 Oct, 10:34 PM
    WayneinOregon @ 30 Oct, 12:46 AM
    obieephyhm @ 30 Oct, 10:21 AM
    Futurist @ 30 Oct, 09:53 AM

     

    Know I must have missed some and there have been lots of thoughtful responses to the above left out, but I really want to thank one and all for this tremendous communication vehicle as these posts exemplify.

     

    Nothing new to add . . still long, planning longer, willing to lose it all.

     

    geopark
    30 Oct 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Sorry,
    Didn't mean to cause you to get sober. You might wish to keep the other state of awareness in play until Nov. 15th.
    30 Oct 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    True. But don't drink it all, geopark. Save some for Nov. 16th. Good or bad, the news (or lack thereof) might rate some "hair of the dog".
    30 Oct 2013, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Ah, Futurist: good recounting of things we tend to forget and overlook as time passes.

     

    Thanks for taking the time!

     

    Let's believe that we are at least exiting the valley of death, which some of what you recalled sure sounds like in retrospect.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Again. From mature companies that have assets that dwarf the auto makers. But the ramifications are not near as severe vs what would happen if such an occurrence were to happen in a large auto fleet.

     

    Apple Blames iPhone 5s Battery Drain on 'Manufacturing Issue'

     

    http://bit.ly/17xsPcf
    30 Oct 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Good point ii,

     

    Buying a $700 phone is different than buying a $20k-$50k car. And the ramifications are directly related to the price.
    Wonder why BMW is taking so long. :-)
    30 Oct 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Futurist, it's why I cringe when I think of all the things that can go wrong with batteries while thinking of the number of cells that go into a pack along with the complexities of the pack itself. I've seen, up close, recalls that effected multi-million unit fleets where the final tab goes well into the hundreds of millions of USD's. Down right ugly. Then I think of the A123 recall which effected far fewer units and it was already pretty darn expensive. Place this oops into a fleet 3 years out with 2 more years worth behind it before the issue shows itself. Even if it's only 20 PPM if you can't sort for it, well, Ya-hoo Mountain Dew!
    30 Oct 2013, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3156) | Send Message
     
    Some parallels to Axion and probably some not. I was under the impression that BMW finished testing the PbC awhile ago and NS for the 999. That means the "delays" are in some of the many other things involved in the projects---BMW's battery supplier arrangements with Axion and the 999's racking and cooling system, for example.

     

    Also, I would think that QC for the PbC would be a lot easier and reliable than for li-ion, which depends on extremely tight tolerances, etc., from what I've read.
    30 Oct 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I,
    Certainly I agree with your premise that BMW should be well on its way to the PbC. But PbC is new and Lithium is not. Axion is small and young. Lithium suppliers are not. I thought some genius would throw a PbC in a car to replace the AGM S/S battery and shazaam, it works. Obviously I am not as smart as they are.
    30 Oct 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    ii -

     

    How great would that have been ...
    30 Oct 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • tomcat818
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Makes me wonder why Axion hasn't done their own POC. If it were me in charge I'd buy a new BMW with SS and modify it to use PcB batts and run hard in real world conditions. By now they would have adequate data for POC... I can only think that BMW has their hands tied or there is a technical reason for not pursuing POC for SS.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1939) | Send Message
     
    I want to see Axion find a partner to build a PbC-battery powered ship.

     

    Ships don't mind weight. In fact it's a good thing in rough weather.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: and DRich has noted that wave action can be used to recharge the batteries and is so frequent that the PbC could be an ideal combination of ballast and power (for on-board systems? can't recall ATM).

     

    HardToLove
    31 Oct 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    tomcat818> BMW has already built BMWs with PbCs and run them hard. They were obviously satisfied with the results or they wouldn't be taking Axion to supply chain partners with enough strength and experience to satisfy BMW's needs. It would be very poor form for Axion to try and circumvent its NDAs by duplicating work a customer has already done for the sake of beating that customer to the punch for PR purposes.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    Tomcat, the other issue with trying to integrate a PbC battery as a dual storage system into a BMW is that they are not wired as such today. In addition you need to have full access to the code in the body controller so you can alter the BMS and other routines to integrate the PbC since it has far different characteristics vs AGM. This cannot be done without the help of the manufacturer.and they consider this proprietary.

     

    IIRC Axion ran into this issue with a Honda some years back when they tried to use the PbC battery in a hybrid vehicle of theirs. Honda wanted too much from Axion to allow them access to their code for the body controller.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • tomcat818
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    I've seen results for simulated testing using the BMW\Ford protocol... do you have a link for "real world" test results I can look at?

     

    I was under the impression that simulated testing was to validate particular vendors\technologies for an extended "real world" test. I've found references such as this:

     

    "Germany's BMW has already tapped Axion to provide its lead-carbon batteries in micro-hybrid test models and is expected to strengthen the partnership over the next 18 months."

     

    http://reut.rs/iiv85U

     

    This is a 2011 article by Reuters but haven't found any results published on said test models.

     

    Also, BMW has created it's own investment arms such as "iVenture" to advance technology for it's own benefit. Why wouldn't they be willing to provide venture capitol to Axion to overcome the supply chain hurdle and at the same time possibly setup shop where the cost per unit could be reduced?

     

    Seems to me this was never offered which lead Axion to the pied pipers. So my question is: If BMW went to the expense of fully vetting the PcB and found it to be the best technology on a cost\performance basis then why would they then let Axion blow in he wind?
    31 Oct 2013, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    BMW considers its test results and product development plans highly confidential. Frankly I was amazed that they released as much information as they did on the results of their testing in a micro-hybrid duty cycle. It also wants to control all PR relating to its vehicles and typically doesn't say anything until the latest technology is already rolling off the assembly line. For better or worse the best thing a would-be supplier to automotive can say is "We're five years into the process and we haven't failed yet." Once you understand that most wannabes fail within 6 to 12 months, a five-year survival is very encouraging.
    31 Oct 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • tomcat818
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP, I get the feeling Axion is walking on eggshells when comes to BMW and rightly so in my estimation. They are just so quiet when it comes to the SS prospects it's down right spooky.

     

    Sorry, couldn't help myself...
    31 Oct 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    My own third quarter ends this week, and I've reviewed my own momentum over the past two days. I don't particularly trust my own decision matrix mechanics so instead I have learned to trust my instincts of re-allocation over three months. When a trend is clear, I will go ahead and accelerate.

     

    In this case, I've noticed that for the first time in a long time (four years maybe?) I've been selling risk and buying security, so this morning I've been selling risk briskly and over-weighting stalwarts. In other words, I'm becoming more selective and seeking dividends.

     

    But let's be honest. Does anybody, including me, give a rip over BP and their nice dividend? Nah ! Same-same Verizon, Exxon, ... you know the usual suspects. Y-A-W-N. . . . . . zzzzzzzzz

     

    So I just finished looking over my high-risk account. Wow, the story it tells! I own a few risky speculations, most of which leave me smirking over the probability I'll ever see real adoption. But I'm a sucker for fun, so what-the-hell.

     

    So if I remove my emotional attachment and ego, what I notice is this: Axion is the company I believe to have the best science, the best technology, the biggest potential, the most developed product, and the only production ready machine in place. It's also the one with the most paranoid and goofy stock price.

     

    I own the silliest ideas on earth, but the one with the most reasonable and promising technology is also the most bloody. So much for my analysis. No lesson here. Just amusement as I wait for the 15th. :>)
    30 Oct 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Owner of silly ideas, eh! Do you stick with any particular theme like I do. I'm a big fan of energy conservation just for the fun of it although I've decided for future dabbles to stick with silly ideas that have sales. I'm lonely enough as is and I shouldn't commit my money to the same fate any longer.

     

    A silly idea that I've grown very fond of is Energy Recovery (ERII). It is quite elevated right now from where I found it and I'm waiting for it to make up its mind. There is still a large short interest in it but there is also a huge market for it. The story is quite similar to Axion's might be if it had a customer.
    30 Oct 2013, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2112) | Send Message
     
    DRich,
    Cmon man. Who would want to desalinate seawater using1/10th the energy as before? They have a product. No customers. Patent protection around their manufacturing processes s. Yeah, Ive heard this all before.

     

    Would you be interested in a product that could revolutionize the car industry? A battery that can save most customers 10% of their fuel usage. Nah, never mind
    30 Oct 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Futurist ... As a matter of fact, No. I think I've said this before. I could care less about the auto industry. It is a horrible industry in which to try to make money supplying it. If it happens ... well, OK, fine.

     

    I'm not going tell anyone ERII is a good investment because it most likely isn't ... at least, yet. Who knows about the future. It does have customers, visible growth prospects, little debt and opportunities in other industries. That makes it interesting to research. I doubt it will ever become a Market favored momentum stock or have a cult following to drive share price like some car oriented companies have. It fits my theme.
    30 Oct 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    DRich: I hope this doesn't put you off it, but I've had ERII on my watch list for years and could never quite say it looked like the right time.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10248) | Send Message
     
    ERII, Complete s$%t like Axion. Can't even tweet with it. What good is it? :-p
    30 Oct 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Can't argue with you there. But I'm long term already in Axion, UQM and others so I'm not going to tell you I have any ability to get into anything in timely or profitable manner.
    30 Oct 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    DRich, You are deep deep deep doo-doo !

     

    RUN FOR YOUR LIFE ! ! !

     

    I've been accumulating Recovery for some time now and have done pretty well.

     

    Yes, I tend to run in themes. For the past several years I have invested (and still do) in energy, alternatives, garbage, and medical devices. Quite frankly it is very difficult to lure me out of those hallways. I want companies folks simply must have. In the past three years I have started accumulating water companies. I think it is the mega investment over the next thirty years. Hence ERII.

     

    They're getting into energy drilling savings too, BTW.
    30 Oct 2013, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Water savings and energy. Why is this one lagging?! Waterless fracking: http://www.gasfrac.com
    30 Oct 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (380) | Send Message
     
    tahoe,

     

    neat stuff. thanks for sharing!

     

    G
    30 Oct 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Tahoe: they've had a few issues with getting the ship in the right place at the right time over the years. Some cost issues have improved as they can now recycle the propane, reducing several costs related to propane.

     

    Last I checked in, they don't have enough rigs and don't always seem to be able to get them where the action is in a timely fashion. Somewhat resource constrained for now.

     

    I think they'll get there eventually, but it's looking like a long row to hoe.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Oct 2013, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (809) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    Welcome to the Valleywood Shadow of Death.

     

    Like the Sports Illustrated Kiss of Death, the VSD is pretty reliable.

     

    We shoontah mentioned ERII. It's getting stoned today. :>(
    31 Oct 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Mind the Gap. Reloading Zone Only. No Parking or Standing Allowed. Time Restriction Enforced.
    31 Oct 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2859) | Send Message
     
    Tahoe
    I agree with HTL.
    They went through a succession of bad management teams. The first over bought and wasted money. The second didn't improve things.
    I read the transcript of the last CC.
    The CEO says they are going nowhere fast for the rest of the year.
    (and probably not for 6 months or so after that)
    No new hires planned at present.
    After which he thinks things will be looking up.

     

    He said some encouraging things.
    They don't expect to sell more equipment and they hope/plan to begin using the rigs they have parked in the not to distant future.

     

    Also they have an improvement in the LPG which is apparently going well.

     

    I don't see any reason to buy before next summer. If you want evidence of improvement it could be a bit longer but I noticed the annalists, who asked question, all seemed pleased and congratulated them on the Q. Which means this leadership team seems to be getting it together.

     

    Also if you look at the articles on SA most were written by the same guy who built up a following here and at Yahoo and dumped it.
    http://bit.ly/HvfFms

     

    I think it left a bad taste in peoples mouths.
    I was following it but never saw evidence the management was getting it together.
    Also it was apparently to expensive. I'm not sure how much was the LPG and how much was the inefficiency of the company. They are apparently now doing in a day what was taking up to a week.
    I put it on the good idea if it ever comes through pile.

     

    Maybe next summer.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Copy of CPUC order mandating storage in CA ... may give some insight into why the utility market that it appears we are now chasing.

     

    http://bit.ly/HqxORV
    30 Oct 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    I'm ready to give TG a pass on the pathetic PIPE financing when he delivers fundamental results sufficient to drive the stock price at least to levels prevailing before the inept negotiation that halved the value of my AXPW holdings. Meanwhile, the answer to those who question the usefulness of keeping that huge mistake in the forefront is the same as the answer to a Secretary of State who saw no purpose in continuing investigations into the Benghazi disaster. The questions deal directly with the competence of those who continue in power.

     

    It wasn't an NDA that prevented TG from addressing upfront the disastrous PIPE financing in the last conference call. It was a tendency toward self-serving communication to shareholders. As to whether those communications have also been misleading, we have only the evidence of repeated failures to deliver results consistent with the expectations encouraged by TG.

     

    So we have a breakthrough technology that has been tested and retested and which everyone seems to love. Yet, more than two years after we were told to expect dramatic increases in revenues, we have no significant orders from any of the power players who have been drawn to Axion by the technology. Is it possible those orders have failed to materialize because of strong doubts about the capabilities of Axion's management? We don't know and can't know what is going on in the minds of potential customers, but we sure can discern some huge disconnects in the Axion story.

     

    If Axion truly has all the potential we have seen in it, how could the company's management accept a financing agreement that can only be described as desperate and had the effect of halving the market value of the company?

     

    For more than two years, we have heard about major prospective customers ecstatic with the performance of the PbC , yet not one substantial order from any of those majors.

     

    Much to my regret, I still haven't sold a share of AXPW. I don't trust TG to present an honest picture of what is happening at our company, but despite my unhappiness with the CEO I believe there is just too much value to sell near current levels.
    30 Oct 2013, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    Alpha,

     

    Although I try very hard to uncover independently verified information to refute your thoughts, I cannot argue with most of what you said.
    31 Oct 2013, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4807) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... Alphameister 's point of accepting "a financing agreement that can only be described as desperate" is something I've been puzzled by for many more than a few years. My opinion, the Gelbaum investment was the last favorable financing Axion was involved with. A dark cloud in my investment thesis as to why the Company has never attracted Capital interest.
    31 Oct 2013, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Fleet242
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Alpha,

     

    One piece of information which we don't know is the price that was on the table for a majority stake in the company. Was it 50 cents or, maybe, 75 cents or more? We just don't know. I agree that financing has been a frustration while I have invested in this company.

     

    Fleet
    31 Oct 2013, 04:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    DR: " A dark cloud in my investment thesis as to why the Company has never attracted Capital interest." Me too. One thing that occurs to me is that major investors look at a number of things before committing money, and though I also agree that Axion has a compelling technology story, it has an equally compelling cloud hanging over corporate management.

     

    The Gelbaum/etc. funding round was also done with a different BOD under different leadership. I propose that the inflection point involved that factor.
    31 Oct 2013, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    The Gelbaum financing was completed in the heady days leading up to the 2008 crash. It was very advantageous for Axion and valued the company at about $80 million. It's the only deal I've ever seen where the investor didn't even try to beat the issuer up on pricing, but I think that was due more to Gelbaum's portfolio strategy than Axion's fundamental value.

     

    The 2009 financing was completed in the gloomy days after the 2008 crash. It was technically a venture investment in public equity that valued the company at about $50 million. In a VIPE transaction, the parties typically ignore the fact that a company has some free trading shares outstanding and use the same kind of valuation metrics they'd use for a privately held company. In a typical VIPE transaction, the parties expect the market price of the public shares to stabilize at about 2x the placement price, which Axion did until the dueling bankruptcy trustees crushed the price in the spring and summer of 2010.

     

    The 2012 and 2013 transactions were both done with groups of market investors rather than venture investors. While venture investors dig deeply into fundamentals in an effort to fairly value a company, market investors don't look at anything beyond the stock price in the days leading up to closing.

     

    The same management team that has guided Axion since 2004 structured all four financing transactions.

     

    Every week I prepare a market capitalization graph that shows what has happened to aggregate shareholder value over time. The last time I believed Axion's stock was fairly valued was in the spring of 2010 before the dueling bankruptcy trustees began to rape and pillage in an illiquid market. Since then, the PbC has progressed from hand-made commercial prototype with no publicly disclosed potential customers to a manufacturing optimized commercial product that's drawn rave reviews from customers that would never publicly associate their name with a nano-cap. The customers are incredibly deliberate in their testing and validation process, but there have been no failures.

     

    When I put on my venture investor hat, I conclude that Axion is worth significantly more than it was in the first quarter of 2010 because the principal roadblocks to commercialization have been overcome and the market potential in automotive, trucking, rail and stationary is extraordinary. When I put on my market investor hat and see what happened to the stock price over the last four years, I wonder how perceptions can get so far out of synch with business reality.

     

    Markets act like voting machines and stock prices swing like pendulums from severely under-valued to severely over-valued. Axion has been stuck at the extreme under-valued end of the spectrum for a long time. My life will be a lot more fun when the voters finally come to grips with the business realities instead of focusing on a stock price chart.
    31 Oct 2013, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    You don't give yourself enough credit, JP.
    31 Oct 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    "Since then, the PbC has progressed from hand-made commercial prototype with no publicly disclosed potential customers to a manufacturing optimized commercial product that's drawn rave reviews from customers that would never publicly associate their name with a nano-cap. The customers are incredibly deliberate in their testing and validation process, but there have been no failures."

     

    JP,

     

    While I appreciate your arguments for why Axion is undervalued, we also need a counter-view so. Many investors were given the impression with the new robotic line and fine tuning of that line that Axion had gone from prototype to a commercial product. Later we come to find out, well actually no the new carbon sheeting process was really only finished this year.

     

    While I don't "think" there have been any failures ... I don't think it is necessarily fair to conclude as fact that there have been no failures b/c if there had been they would have been wrapped up tightly in NDAs. What we do know is when there are problems, they are not addressed head on and often brushed under the rug.

     

    There is a reason this stock trades where it does and it is not b/c of all the potential that we here on this board hope for this company.
    31 Oct 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    There are two separate and distinct process involved in the fabrication of Axion's carbon electrode assemblies.

     

    The first process Axion wrestled to the ground was an assembly lamination technique that minimized internal resistance between the five layers and protected the current collector from one of the most hostile environments imaginable.

     

    The second process Axion wrestled to the ground was an automated sheeting process that replaced a more labor intensive manual process.

     

    Each of these accomplishments was a major advance in its own right. Axion had a commercial product as soon as the electrode lamination process was wrestled to the ground. There was nothing "wrong" with the labor intensive sheeting process and first tier customers were a full three years into validation testing before a "better" method was developed.

     

    Nobody who paid attention to what I wrote over the years and what Axion said over the years had any basis to assume that the carbon sheeting process was as good as it was ever going to get. For that matter, nobody who paid attention to what I wrote over the years and what Axion said over the years has any basis to assume that the current electrode lamination process is as good as it's ever going to get.

     

    When a company transitions from R&D to commercial production it learns how to make a consistent product which is required for commercialization and then it finds additional ways to pare costs and improve performance. That's just the natural order of things.

     

    I have a really hard time understanding why anyone would want to turn a huge technical triumph that strips 80% of the labor content out of a new product into evidence of skullduggery.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    JP -

     

    "The second process Axion wrestled to the ground was an automated sheeting process that replaced a more labor intensive manual process." I remember asking TG a specific question about the carbon sheet rolling process on a CC two years ago that he dodged. Much like the question I asked at the annual meeting about what developments it would take to bring back investors like BlackRock into the fold.

     

    Unfortunately, I was not yet knowledgeable to pin him down on what his answer meant with respect to the status of the carbon sheeting process and even if I was he would have skipped me and went on to the next caller.

     

    My point is that there are reasons why the stock trades at .10-.13 cents. Even if TG doesn't acknowledge the reasons, the market assumes them anyway. Maybe if he stood up and addressed some of these issues head on, he would regain some credibility that he has obviously lost with people on this board and prior investors.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    No company in its right mind publicly discusses the manufacturing processes for key components in detail, even if stockholders want to know. You may have thought Tom dodged your question, but I would have been more blunt and told you it's none of your damned business. Every time I discussed the old sheeting process, I said that it was very labor intensive and one of the best future opportunities for cost reduction.

     

    Axion's price problem has absolutely nothing to do with technical progress and everything to do with ugly supply and demand dynamics. It's had more bad luck with investors than I would have imagined possible, and I've been doing this for a very long time. The stock price is broken because market participants broke it. Management has done an incredible job of moving the business forward despite the market's lack of support.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2660) | Send Message
     
    "Axion's price problem has absolutely nothing to do with technical progress."

     

    I don't think so either and would have expected that Dr. Bueill would never have contributed here if there were technical issues. It has much more to do with whether this management team can bring the product to market before the current investors, yourself included, get basically flushed. That is the bottom line.

     

    We all have invested in a story stock and thus far there are aspects of the story that are very positive and other aspects that downright suck.
    31 Oct 2013, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2855) | Send Message
     
    Stefan -

     

    The tail doth try to wag the dog here.

     

    Ain't gonna happen.
    31 Oct 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    Steph ... IMO the stock trades at its present level because Axion has assets, spends much more than it earns in revenue, and repeated PR releases about one-off sales plus CC statements suggesting high potential PbC sales have lead to ... more talk about potential future sales. Actual sales have not been forthcoming and the market is saying, "proof of the putting is in the eating."
    31 Oct 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Will be a lot easier for the voters to appreciate "business realities" when they take the form of significant sales that are late by two years and counting at this point.
    31 Oct 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    I certainly didn't expect the OEM testing and validation process to be as time consuming and painful as it has been. That's made me consistently wrong in my revenue timing estimates. I'll grant that Granville knows a bit more than me about how the sales cycle progresses in the battery industry, but he doesn't know that much more.

     

    I'll tell you what. Let's leave Tom alone for a while and beat up Petersen for his overly optimistic revenue expectations. After all, I'm almost as knowledgeable and every bit as guilty on that count as Tom is.
    31 Oct 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2297) | Send Message
     
    Isn't that sort of like biting the hand that has fed us, rather than biting the hand that might feed us?
    31 Oct 2013, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps, but I've had lots of practice responding to unjustified abuse and character assassination from people who want to vent and select the nearest easy target.
    31 Oct 2013, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4311) | Send Message
     
    JP ... I don't remember your ever predicting in a Q1 cc that Axion would be cash flow positive by Q3. I don't remember ever reading a statement by you that "significant sales" would be reported by the next CC.

     

    Granville was well suited to managing the Axion helm in the R&D stage. As Futurist noted, Granville has managed to keep Axion afloat and functioning despite multiple adverse developments beyond his control. Contrary to what some others have expressed, I happen to think he is an extremely effective communicator of that which he wishes to communicate. Possession of a skill set needed to transition from R&D venture to commercial enterprise is far from clear, though.

     

    Axion NDA policy is a problem, one that is within Granville's control and useful to management in constraining flow of information. Axion's willingness to work with a wider range of system integrators is within his control, and he has been slow to broaden the scope of markets pursued. Disclosure of PbC technical performance characteristics is subject to his control and he has not relaxed it. Failure to adopt policy changes in those areas left Axion's fate in the hands of management's of huge corporations over which Granville has no control.

     

    I truly hope, for Granville's sake as well as the sake of all shareholders, that "significant sales" of PbCs by Axion are reported before or during the next CC. Otherwise, a change in CEO is needed IMO and the sooner the better. Looking at Graham's experience summary, such a transition may already be underway whether "significant sales" are reported are not.
    31 Oct 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30626) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, Tom predicted in Q1-12 that Axion would be cash flow positive by Q2-13. Things obviously haven't worked out the way he thought they would; but that doesn't make the original statement dishonest. It simply means circumstances have changed and partners have moved slower than expected.

     

    Tom has been consistently wrong about the amount of time required to move a relationship from testing to a signed contract. I have suffered from the same lack of prescience. Hard as I may try, there is simply no way to predict what other people are going to do or when they are going to do it. It's frustrating as hell, but it's also the way things work in the battery business. Building a customer relationship is like having sex with a gorilla. The foreplay isn't over until THEY SAY i