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  • wow, really??
    14 Dec 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • (as in, I'm finally first in something!!!)
    14 Dec 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • The Mustang concentrator. 289
    15 Dec 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Yup
    14 Dec 2013, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • The coming week should see ePower on the road. That should give us some positive things to talk about.
    14 Dec 2013, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • I'd like to see some pictures. I'll bet there will be some Cheshire Cat size smiles.
    14 Dec 2013, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, "Cheshire Cat smiles".

     

    And that's just Axionista's. You can only imagine what the contributors will be doing!

     

    Me, I'm waiting for the initial data on performance. That'd be something for some small group of engineers to beat, by such a large margin, a massive group of engineers with state of the art everything in their own industry. I am hoping and would love to see it.
    14 Dec 2013, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Before we go getting too excited, it's important to remember that Jay's hoping to have the tractor back together by Friday afternoon but it will take another week or two before we have everything tuned in properly. Switching over to the Cummins engine will give us 27% more power from the generator and require a series of adjustments to charging algorithms and other electronic controls. When we have the tractor running and our control electronics adjusted, the next step will be taking it to Cummins so they can dial in the final adjustments at the ECM level fine tune the fuel consumption.

     

    The big hold your breath moment will be when we put the tractor in the hands of a fleet operator for a couple weeks.

     

    On the second-generation tractor we spent the better part of a month collecting fuel economy and performance data at various weights and speeds. Since we don't believe our numbers will be all that credible to operators, we plan to use each demonstration as a data collection opportunity so that after a two-week trial we'll have about 4,000 miles of hard data respecting fuel economy on specific routes at known weights and speeds. We believe that kind of data will be unassailable since it will be collected by third party fleet operators and there will be an audit trail for any summaries we create.

     

    These are exciting times but the work we do is going to take some time.
    15 Dec 2013, 06:25 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks John. It's a whole lot easier to wait with hopeful anticipation when we know what is going on behind the scenes.
    15 Dec 2013, 06:39 AM Reply Like
  • I'll try to provide color when I can, sometimes the only thing I can do is wait patiently while people I trust do their jobs.
    15 Dec 2013, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • The Curacao finding is interesting; perhaps it answers my question: "Where's the beef?!!!"
    15 Dec 2013, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • John, I was following up on this contract to see if there was any information subsequent to the award. The award was mid 2010 and had an approximate 3 year time frame. There is zero reference, that I can see, to any follow up information on their home site. Have you happened to see any information concerning any output at all from this activity over the last few years?

     

    U.S. Army Invests $5 Million in Advanced Lead-Carbon Energy Storage

     

    http://bit.ly/19qt1Le

     

    Here's their home site.

     

    http://www.cdtechno.com
    15 Dec 2013, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • C&D had a sucko time in the last half of 2010 when the holders of its debt forced a restructuring that gave them control of the company for a deeply discounted song.

     

    My 2010 year-end update said, "My worst bullish call last year was C&D Technologies (OTC:CHHP), which took a huge intangible asset write-down in September and was forced into a debt restructuring that transferred over 90% of the company to creditors and will limit its upside potential."

     

    When bad stuff happens to companies, things like military contracts tend to disappear unless the uncertainty quickly clears.
    15 Dec 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • OK, Thanks. So there are some odds that this contract vaporized which is supported by the fact that I can see zero follow up information from my limited internet searches. One comment in a presentation at the time of the award indicated interest in using this in the commercial sector as well. You can bet they would be crowing if they had 3 years under their belt in R&D in this area.

     

    Just was looking to see if there was any information on it given Axion's prior relationship w/ the DOD. Odd there is no follow up I can see by the DOD. This does not mean it is not happening I just can't find it.
    15 Dec 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Axion's military relationship was an odd one because the contract was born as a Congressional earmark. Since there was an earmark bloodbath the following year as Congress struggled with spending gone wild, what started with a bang ended with a whimper in some Congressional subcommittee.
    15 Dec 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, I remember you bringing up this point in the past when discussing the Axion contract with the military.

     

    Just another example of Axion's seemingly repetitive poor luck. Then again, when it comes to some government work maybe that will be a long term win. Who the heck knows.
    15 Dec 2013, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • I've always thought it would be a ton of fun for Axion to be able to claim success in spite of the government, rather than because of it.
    15 Dec 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • John,

     

    Unfortunately that is not very realistic. It costs us so much to have access to 10 million of private capital, when companies like TSLA or other politically connected entities borrow billions under explicit guarantee from the Federal Government. I sure hope the current CFO understands this disadvantage and times the next capital raise correctly given the market environment, otherwise we won't have much choice next time but to go for a PIPE on steroids...
    15 Dec 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • PIPEs are funny things - a lot like peeing on an electric fence. I've seen lots of companies do them over the years, but nobody ever comes back for a second round.
    15 Dec 2013, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, until it is the only deal in town and you are faced with either taking another PIPE bite, or folding the business. Hopefully Axion won't get to that stage as I would expect us to have some ramp up in revenue by then!
    15 Dec 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Axion is a survivor and it always has been. The last decade has been difficult but the company remains the master of its own destiny. There has been a good deal of pain along the way but Axion is 100% owned by its stockholders and there are no nasty hooks in the technology. I know of at least one company that's expecting big things over the next three to six months and planning making a lot of noise as it rolls out fuel economy numbers for heavy trucking that nobody can even come close to and builds a reservation book of national names that would make Elon Musk blush. Since ePower wouldn't have a working drivetrain without the PbC, there's no question that the credit will be fairly shared.
    15 Dec 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • JP: "Axion is (still) 100% owned by its stockholders"

     

    …But, excruciatingly, each shareholder PRIOR to last summer has had the PIPEr mafia muscle in for nearly 70% vigorish (~113 million shares diluted to ~204 million shares).
    15 Dec 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Well John, I really hope ePower succeeds in its mission and proves us that our patience hasn't been for nothing!
    15 Dec 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mercifully the PIPErs have been selling their shares at the earliest possible opportunity and the big Axion stockholders I've talked to have been building their positions at ridiculously low prices. It pains me that I don't have the liquidity to be a buyer at these prices. But fiscal conservatism is always a virtue when you take a new job with a small company.

     

    My views would be different if I thought the PIPErs were building a position, but I don't think that's happening.
    15 Dec 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • One huge vote of confidence that would make me much more comfortable with the risk I took with Axion would be to see one of the management executives vote with HIS money and build a position in Axion. So far, and besides Bob Averill who was a non exec, no one has stepped up. I recall from prior conversations with you that you think it is a risky proposition for management to do something like this, but then insider buying is a widespread practice in the corporate world, and Axion should be no exception.

     

    The fact that is hasn't happened so far is more intriguing. Again this is just my opinion
    15 Dec 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • There seem to be so many meaty prospects being stuffed into the grinder that I remain ebullient that enough succulent kielbasa to feed an army of Axionistas shall appear SUDDENLY and EN MASSE ere long.

     

    As such, I anticipate a pps of 30 cents minimum as soon as meat is seen starting to stuff the casing.

     

    Thus my continued opinion that anyone way under their intended stake in Axion should stock up now and that it's a hold/add status for the rest. [I recently beefed up one of my smaller accounts with another 160,000 shares.]

     

    Dinnertime beckons.
    15 Dec 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • re: JP: "PIPEs are funny things - a lot like peeing on an electric fence. I've seen lots of companies do them over the years, but nobody ever comes back for a second round."

     

    Perhaps I have a different view of the PIPE deal than most of the investors around here, but it seems to me that things could have been a lot worse. Under the PIPE deal we've almost doubled the number of shares, resulting in considerable dilution to existing shareholders. However we all also had the opportunity to buy more shares and maintain our percentage ownership.

     

    In my view the most likely alternative was a scenario where an investor put in the money needed and ended up with something like 40% of the company. All they would need to do is buy another 10% on the market and they then have the option to take the company private. Not much upside in that for most of us.

     

    I would hope that if and when Axion needs to raise money again, that the PIPE approach isn't ruled out. Massive dilution is preferable to having my shares taken away for 30 cents.
    15 Dec 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • 12/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 88, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 580230, AvTrSz: 6594
    Min. Pr: 0.1120, Max Pr: 0.1140, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1125
    # Buys, Shares: 31 224490, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1132
    # Sells, Shares: 56 335740, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1121
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1130
    Buy:Sell 1:1.50 (38.7% "buys"), DlyShts 157990 (27.23%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 47.06%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0978 vs. $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986 and $0.0986 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0957 vs. $0.0952, $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973 and $0.0992 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Yesterday, regarding our ability to stay out of the $0.10xx range I said “We're still there, but it's turning into a skin of the teeth situation I think”. We've got volume generally lower than I prefer, a compressing price range (low +0.90% and high -0.44% today) trend, continuing inability to trade other than predominately below the 50-day SMA (now $0.1188, down from the prior $0.1189 and $0.1190, continually dropping and today's high and low well below that average), and a long-term descending resistance that we can't seem to get above (in fact the highs seem to have stopped right at it six of the last seven days).

     

    And that's just the present stuff – what about future stuff. Well, we know the PIPErs have another great deal coming their way as today's 85% of the average of the 20 lowest VWAPs in 40-day window continues its trek: today down another -1.61% on the week to $0.0978. Our “day before issue” price moved to $0.0957 today. That's the price that would be in effect for new issue or true-up shares if they were issued Monday. A 20% profit on that would require only an $0.1148 price. We have a lot of holiday time coming this month – low trading volume should become the rule. That gives lot of opportunity for price to be moving and low volume is quite often associated with price weakening.

     

    Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved +0.50%, +27.38% and +341.31% respectively.

     

    On the traditional TA front, the 50-day SMA dropped to $0.1188 from the previous $0.1189 and $0.1190. We traded completely well below this falling average. Trading continues to be below the 50-day SMA since 11/18.

     

    The VWAP averages (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day) might be useful: $0.1138, $0.1142, $0.1163, $0.1201, $0.1290 and $0.1824. Sorry – I didn't mean to torture with that 200-day average!

     

    The usual additional detail and thoughts are in the blog here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Seeking Commentary:

     

    Today, being with cold, her Majesty as graciously allowed temporary respite from the SWMBO-LoTTD and, finding myself indisposed in the small room of porcelain fixtures, I attempted to digest some science reading . . . since I seem unable to digest much else.

     

    I was reading about sun spots and solar energy cycles and how CMEs cause havoc for things attached to and associate with the power-grid -- with ample discussion of Quebec in '89 and the cascading effect therein.

     

    The thought (simplistic though it may be) is whether some configuration of Axion batteries could be used -- not as substitute power source -- but as a device which, properly placed, could buffer the inter-dependencies of the inter-connected power-grid until loads could be re-balanced?

     

    Given the general astuteness of this group, forgive me if this has been discussed before or if the answer is so obvious that only an idiot would bring it up. (but, be nice, I am with fever . . .).
    15 Dec 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • obie,

     

    In fact, some years ago the Sun did an RFQ to Axion for several billion PbCs to power her sunspots, which Axion then supplied "for testing purposes". But alas Axion shareholders bore the brunt of the cost as no revenues for said PbCs were booked.

     

    The Sun and Axion continue, however, in meetings and talks on a biweekly basis, but regarding any follow up sales to the Sun, "that market will happen when it happens," says Mr. TG.

     

    Axion perhaps should step gingerly in a relationship with power grid suppliers on Earth, since any efforts to mitigate Her sun spot grid effects may irritate the Sun, who may then cancel her contract. Err, oh, my bad, that's right there IS no contract, sorry!
    15 Dec 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Obieephyhm. Visiting the land of much porcelain and reading about CMEs. That has to be ranked high in some actuary table capturing high risk lifestyles!

     

    I have to believe that having many smaller generation sources throughout a grid is advantageous in the case of handling transients of any sort. I see no reason why the PbC would excel over other energy sources in helping here. Maybe some benefit in response time over slower generating sources?

     

    Edit: RA, very funny!
    15 Dec 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • >obieephyhm ... I have always thought that buffering either mass storage or frequency regulation would wind up being the primary purpose of the Axion PbC on the grid. Mixed storage devices is my view of best use. Most single battery demonstrations seem to have shown to not capture the maximum opportunistic energy available and/or suffer premature aging from too rapid charge/discharge (heating and corrosion).

     

    The behind the meter local buffering of peak shaving within a business/factory in combination with selling frequency regulation is small scale example where Axion's PbC can stand alone or in mixed device. The capacitance characteristic is circuit protection and self-contained storage buffers the optimum charge state of the system attached.

     

    Just my opinion. With no data available from Axion and only anecdotal evidence from reading Sandia Labs reports & other battery OEM's PR, I don't have any way to be absolutely sure of my idea.
    15 Dec 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • I think you have a very good grasp of the subject, DRich. I agree.
    16 Dec 2013, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Updated fails to deliver charts through first half of November. What I see suggests John's thoughts about back office delays and PIPErs possibly running out of shares accounting for early taking of some, as reported in the quarterly results, may be spot on.

     

    My comment in that blog is here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • Pretty Quiet around here today!
    16 Dec 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Yep. People in Christmas mode already :))
    16 Dec 2013, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna: Well, Santa's leaving a lump of coal in our stocking this A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Just concluded a phone conversation with Vani Dantam re-MultiLink EB1s. He expects MultiLink to update their catalog to include PbC batteries on completion of some sort of testing regime.

     

    Effectively, PowerCubes of various sizes are the only PbC products currently on the market. One such product is a 4 kW cube intended for residential solar PV systems which qualify for 30% federal tax credit.

     

    Re- the 300kWh PowerCube sale announced last month. Dantam referred to the PC as a 0.5MW Frequency Regulation system. Installation of that system is currently underway.
    16 Dec 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv, Thanks for sharing your exchange w/ Vani.

     

    BTW, What's the sales channel for the 4 kW residential cube? D-inv word -O- mouth sales inc.? How the heck are they going to sell these things w/o a sales outlet and w/o marketing? I honestly don't get Vani here. His tenure in large industrial only is showing. :(
    16 Dec 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks D-inv. Very helpful info. That PowerCube was larger than I expected for the $320k sale price. If we assume 2 30HT batteries for 1 Kw then, for a .5MW system, we're talking $320/battery, less some amount for the container and ancillary equipment. From the press release it seems that the customer is supplying much of the electronics (presumably including the inverter) so other powercubes might be more expensive.

     

    So, I take this as very good news because it would seem to indicate that Axion is forward pricing to some degree and thus being more aggressive in getting product out in the marketplace. Additionally, it would seem that the PbC is no longer priced above lithium ion.

     

    From the Axion press release: "The $320,000 purchase order includes batteries, racks, wiring, data communication system and electronics coordination (electronics and power system to be provided by Owner). The project has been in the works for some time and the Company expects to ship all equipment to the site in the current quarter of 2013, with installation to begin immediately"
    16 Dec 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • AP & D-inv - I'm confused by the above ... Did Axion sell a 300kwh PC or a 500kwh PC?

     

    I thought it was a 300kwh PC and if you have two 30HT per kwh, then that would make it roughly 600 batteries (or $533 per battery), but if it is a 500kwh PC then it would make it roughly 1000 batteries (or $320 per battery) ...

     

    Of course these guesstimates don't account for the cost of the electronics.
    16 Dec 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • 300 kWh and 500 kW

     

    kWh - unit for energy (or multiple of)
    kW - unit for power (or multiple of)

     

    This means 1.67C in most cases (SOC, temp, in / out etc.).
    16 Dec 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • It's an easy snag but we always have to keep in mind that KW and KWh are different things.

     

    IIRC a single PbC stores nominally about 0.5KWh of useful *energy* but can deliver close to 1KW of *power* (for instance 100 amps at 10 volts).

     

    So, to my mind a PC that stores 300KWh of energy and delivers 500KW of power is entirely consistent and sounds like it would involve around 600 individual PbC's...
    16 Dec 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Nicu. I always mix those abbreviations up.
    So is it two 30HTs per kwh or per kw?
    16 Dec 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • What is /does IIRC stand for?
    16 Dec 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC = If I Recall Correctly
    16 Dec 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • The one hour rated discharge capacity of a 30HT is 500 watt-hours.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • From the below comments it looks like I equated Kw and KwH so my per-battery calculations are bogus.

     

    Still, if the 1kw per 30HT number is true for short bursts that is extremely helpful information at we do come out at $600k per megawatt of peak capacity. It would seem that Vani Dantam was more focused on Kw than KwH in his thinking.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Are these sizes relevant to what Vani was talking about at the AGM where a PbC - frequency regulation system only has about half the size of a lithium ion frequency regulation system?
    16 Dec 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • LOL, I thought it was some regulatory or electrical term. Thnx ii.
    16 Dec 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • I was just trying to sound cool... ;)
    16 Dec 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481' ... 600 PbCs was confirmed by TG in the last conference call.
    16 Dec 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • From the Q3 cc transcripts. No comments on case size.

     

    "You can see why we’re so excited about this opportunity here at Axion. But of course that’s not all we’re working on. You may have seen our press release earlier this week with respect to 600 battery PowerCube for the use with a solar array that will work in conjunction with the grid and solar panels. And will provide power for the facility under normal use and a net metering arrangement. In addition, the facility plans to participate in the frequency regulation market."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    16 Dec 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan, if you keep mixing them, think like the three letters are just multiplication: k = 1000, W - Watt, h - hour.

     

    Imagine you have a light bulb of one Watt. What does that describe? Its "power" to irradiate, coming form the electric power it uses. Then Wh is keeping it on for one hour. You [most probably] have to burn something to keep the light on for one hour, and you are [indirectly] using the chemical energy stored in that fossil fuel.

     

    In short, W is for power, Wh is for energy.

     

    k, M, G, T prefixes are only scales, they do not change the nature of the beast, just its size.
    16 Dec 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu: you sound like a PhD or something! ;-)

     

    Just curious: can you explain the Double Slit experiment? or Quantum Entanglement?
    16 Dec 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Nicu. Another comparison that I have heard is thinking about pouring electricity into a bottle - what it holds is the kwh and how big the opening is that allows electricity to flow in and out is kw.

     

    I also found this site helpful

     

    http://bit.ly/J1091v
    16 Dec 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor - I wish I could but my physics knowledge is very limited, despite the fact that I am a "fan" of it. If you are really interested, I have two very good friends who try to build theoretical models to explain why those things occur so they would probably be able to explain what they are ;)

     

    Stefan - my analogy was also a memory technique; we know that light bulbs are rated in W and that we use them for time spans measured in h, therefore we get the Wh concept for free :)
    16 Dec 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv,

     

    Thanks for the update. I wonder how long the testing will take.
    Any mention of significant PC orders soon? ;-))
    16 Dec 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • That is material, sensitive information. I don't think Vani wants to spend Christmas in an orange jumper and working in the laundry room, but rather with his family ;)
    16 Dec 2013, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Re- additional orders. On commenting that I would really like to see/hear of new orders as opposed to those already announced, the Dantam's response was ..... a chuckle.
    16 Dec 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • OT: We've had some discussions of exporting Nat Gas. Found this interesting:

     

    US gas exports to Mexico will more than double by 2016: Barclays

     

    Houston (Platts)--2Oct2013/330 pm EDT/1930 GMT

     

    http://bit.ly/1bTTfWX

     

    "The expected increase comes as natural gas demand in Mexico has been strong and is poised to accelerate further, driven by new power generation and industrial use, and enabled by "a massive expansion of the country's pipeline network," said the report, issued late Tuesday.

     

    Eight major pipelines with a total capacity of 5.6 Bcf/d are scheduled to start operations within Mexico from 2013 to 2017, the report said. Several will deliver gas to areas currently lacking sufficient distribution infrastructure, and will spur new demand. Three of these pipelines will connect directly to the US pipeline grid, and are mirrored by US expansions."
    16 Dec 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mexico could potentially become a NG exporter, but lacks the infrastructure. One reason they are importing from us is the proximity to the American infrastructure just across the border from major users in Mexico...
    16 Dec 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • How long, now that they've opened their O&G E&P to private investment, before they begin producing their own? More than a day or two I think. So we should see a few good years of exports, at international energy-content ratios I suspect, making the U.S. companies exporting do well and driving up the cost of NG here, taking way some small portion of our manufacturers advantage of cheap energy ... a couple years down the road?

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Don't have a handle on how much this will affect our prices, but I do think there's mutual benefit to Mexico getting stronger economically. Stronger neighbors will likely make stronger trading partners. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the pie gets bigger.

     

    Go North America! Better them than China in my book.

     

    Plus if there's any significant reduction in Nat Gas flaring, (and I don't know that there will be) that could be an environmental win as well.
    16 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: We do pretty good on the flaring here now, except for the Bakken play. But that's going to change as state regulators in the area are starting to act on that, IIRC.
    16 Dec 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Right HTL. Of course, you might remember just how much of "our" manufacturers have shifted to Mexico, particularly along the long border with the US...

     

    No coincidences involved.

     

    And I expect the price charged for the NG crossing the border will the lower (NAFTA) than the normal export pricing.
    16 Dec 2013, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • They will just distribute it into the maquilladora areas.
    16 Dec 2013, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Live an learn: Wikipedia Maquiladora:

     

    http://bit.ly/1c7tzaY
    16 Dec 2013, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • there's an article out today stating that some industry is leaving China and going to Mexico. That explains some of this Nat gas demand in Mexico.

     

    I don't look for Mexico to be as big a trading partner, too much goes to too few down there. They will furnish cheap labor and land, buy some energy from us and that's about it.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • "think there's mutual benefit to Mexico getting stronger economically. Stronger neighbors will likely make stronger trading partners."

     

    And tend to reduce in-migration to the U.S. from Central America.
    16 Dec 2013, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • The imports will have to go further into the heart of the country, one of our businesses is located in San Luis Potosi, where the state government has been pushing to move to NG from coal. There is tremendous demand throughout the interior of the country.

     

    Personal thought is that the new infrastructure package Pena Nieto has introduced along with the Pemex reform will make that economy continue to grow as rapidly if not more so in the next 5 years.
    16 Dec 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • "But, the improved fuel economy is not reflected in the government’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimated fuel economy ratings because their dictated test procedures don’t include much idling time. That will change with the upcoming 2017-25 fuel efficiency standards, which will give extra credit for “off-cycle” stop-start systems."

     

    Sounds like EPA will start giving credit for S/S systems in 2017.

     

    http://bit.ly/15LK188
    16 Dec 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Yes. About the time I expect we will hear something from BMW...
    16 Dec 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Just a reminder that the real s/s action at moment is in Europe. I expect something outta the BMW camp way before 2017.
    16 Dec 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mr. I, You have a Bimmer on order? ;-D
    16 Dec 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • If the rules have to be met in 2017, the entire process has to be ready to crank out those cars. That takes time and has to be started before 2017, years before.
    16 Dec 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mr I,

     

    Just arrived back in France for the Christmas festivities. Rented a Nissan Quasquai with 12k miles on the clock. Start/Stop has been disabled by Avis. This is the 3rd rental that I have had in the last 18 months with the Start/Stop function that does not work, cannot work or has been disabled. The 2 previous were BMW's.
    16 Dec 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • AIB,

     

    Is there a button that would re-enable it and does that not work as well?
    16 Dec 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • iinde, lol.

     

    I expect a manufacturing announcement with a BMW battery supplier in the not too distant future. Just my guess, though.
    16 Dec 2013, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • There is a button but it does not work. Tried it several times.

     

    The display indicates that there is a fault. I have put about 300k on the clock over the last 2 days, mostly highway driving.
    17 Dec 2013, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • Repository of SAE start/stop technical papers ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1bTXbHb

     

    "Lead-Acid State of Charge Estimation for Start-Stop Applications"

     

    "Although state of charge estimation has mainly focused on Li-ion batteries, lead-acid batteries may be used successfully in start-stop applications. However, SOC estimation for lead-acid batteries is particularly difficult due to side reactions and losses during charging, particularly at high SOC. This is a highly nonlinear function and requires special attention. To estimate the battery SOC, an equivalent-circuit lead-acid battery model is used to simulate the battery dynamics. This model incorporates losses associated with top charging which can affect the battery SOC estimation. In addition, parameter estimation techniques are utilized to identify the dynamic model parameters. Through this research, an online adaptive battery model can be used to estimate the lead-acid battery state of charge for start-stop applications, where the charging patterns may affect the SOC estimation."

     

    Trying to figure out how to make lead acid work ...
    16 Dec 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • Nice find Stefan. And that's why the decay curve of the PbC battery can be advantageous in some apps. You have an accurate feedback loop for SOC over the life of the storage unit. A point stressed by Kirk Tierney many moons ago.
    16 Dec 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Article on solar panels and grid de-stabilization in Oahu, Hawaii.
    http://nws.mx/1hX0SQk
    16 Dec 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Seems to me that state governments should sell bonds to help pay for the upgrades in the monitoring systems of these state regulated monopolies called electric Companies. After years of the states and the fed gov and the electric co giving subsidies to homeowners and businesses to install solar, I think it is outrageous to charge THEM for the monitoring upgrades.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Once mileage credit is given for Start/Stop, it ceases to be a consumer option, like leather seats. Instead it is put into the design of to meet the mileage rules: what is the cost of different strategies and which ones can be combined on individual vehicles and the entire produce line to meet the regulations. And do it a a cost that does not resemble buying a house.
    16 Dec 2013, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • More power to small boats

     

    "Thus, the project team was granted a project extension in order to explore other options. This enabled HYMAR to develop a parallel hybrid system that has since been installed, tested and validated on marine craft. The project has also developed modified lead-acid batteries that demonstrate enhanced performance in hybrid applications. Furthermore, HYMAR has built a comprehensive energy management module and graphical user interface able to control the energy flows of an entire craft."

     

    http://bit.ly/Jszlru
    -
    We'll see you guys soon.

     

    HYMAR LAB Tech.

     

    http://bit.ly/JszjQc
    16 Dec 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • So who wants to send Ken Wittamore an email suggesting he's using the wrong LA battery for their hybrid system and that a better one already exists and is for sale now?

     

    ken.wittamore@hymar.com
    16 Dec 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • B/c Norfolk Southern publicly stated that it planned to have the NS999 rolling by the end of 2013, might be worth asking what the status is on the next NS earnings CC ...
    16 Dec 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Wonder if (doubt it actually) they take any private investor calls.

     

    Bet lots of big boy investment houses are in line for that call.

     

    For a while, it seemed much of what they talked about was coal! Maybe reality has set in, and things are changing in that respect, especially with the focus on Intermodal along the Crescent Coridor.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • WTB, I think you are correct. Investment houses only.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Wtb: they may be getting some oil transport too? A oil co. exec this A.M. on CNBC said he doesn't care about the new pipeline for his Bakken stuff - he's switched to rail.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Like I have said before, a barrel of Bakken oil will travel to the Gulf in roughly 8 days, the East coast about 5 days and to the West coast about 10 days faster by rail than by pipeline. That is for the stuff that can be diluted enough to flow. A large portion of oil tar sands will never flow in pipelines.

     

    Remember this ... the coke sand leftovers from refining

     

    http://bit.ly/1cMWcca
    16 Dec 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • IIRC the Bakken produces light sweet crude while the oil sands crude (or is it crud?) comes from Alberta.
    16 Dec 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • >John ... I know that N.Dakota officially advertises that Bakken oil is SP 36 to 44. Nearly WTI quality. Hess says the average is close to SP 82. Who's right?
    16 Dec 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • I won't even try to guess.
    16 Dec 2013, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • SP 82?
    http://bit.ly/1cxx99v
    40 degree API crude oil has specific gravity of .825
    16 Dec 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Has anyone else lost their quotes for AXPW?

     

    I've got it at 11.06 but I do not have any volume... what is the volume so far?

     

    THanks
    16 Dec 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • O.R.: All looks normal here. b/a $0.1106x5K NITE, $0.1115x5K BTIG.

     

    Volume traded 502660

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Something is wrong with YAHOO AGAIN!
    On another note. Today on CNBC they were doing a piece on Google buying up robot companies, ten in the last six months. During which the commentator said "Google is looking way into the future with robots and Yahoo is still trying to keep their email up and running.
    16 Dec 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • H.T.L... Thanks!
    16 Dec 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Viridity makes a little (DOD) news:

     

    Power Analytics finds partners for microgrid project
    12/16/2013
    By Editors of Electric Light & Power/ POWERGRID International

     

    http://bit.ly/1ejnAla

     

    "Spirae will provide the control mechanisms for the microgrid. Viridity Energy’s software will forecast electrical loads, generation capability, and market price to allow the bases to optimize use of their electrical infrastructure."

     

    Spirae: http://www.spirae.com
    16 Dec 2013, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Porsche, Saving the planet. Maybe the US govmint will kick in an eight hundred k USD coupon so we can all do our part.

     

    Porsche $845,000 Hybrid Beats Prius as Hot Rods Go Green

     

    http://bloom.bg/19OejtZ
    16 Dec 2013, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • I've got a better idea. We should buy 30+ Priuses for the same price as the one hybrid Porshe. They can then surround the Porshe on the road and force its driver to go the speed limit on the highway! ;-) OK, it can go 10 mph over the speed limit like the rest of us, but it has to accelerate from 0-60 mph in 10 seconds.
    16 Dec 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • Very good LabTech. Or they can just put random speed bumps all over the damn place like they do in Mexico. And I do mean random. Then collect the free Porsche parts from the violators.

     

    BTW, My neck is still sore from the engineer I went out to lunch with that forgot about a known location speed bump.
    -
    So much for Axion's trademark "PowerCube". I think it's on more devices now than Axion has sold PbC batteries. And oh, How is this patentable?

     

    Ecosphere Technologies awarded US patent for mobile solar power system

     

    "Ecosphere’s Ecos PowerCube has been awarded US Patent No. 8,593,102 by the United States Patent & Trademark Office. The device is a portable, self-contained micro-utility that uses solar power to provide electricity in the most remote, off-grid locations. It was designed to help meet the growing demand for off-grid energy and incorporates an array of stacked solar panels in order to maximise the total amount of solar power generation possible in 10', 20' and 40' standard ISO shipping container footprints."

     

    http://bit.ly/1cxwhl6

     

    Edit: Darn, I always forget to hit the reply button at the bottom of the concentrators when I mean to reply. Must be a short circuit in my PowerCube. And no it doesn't rate high for quick response time by PJM or anyone else..
    16 Dec 2013, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • What implications does this patent have for axion?
    16 Dec 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • I don't think this patent impacts Axion because it's for a drop in place storage/solar array package that also has quick plug in service ports. Just odd for me that they can patent it and that Axion's trademark for "PowerCube" seems to be of little value.
    16 Dec 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • That was kind of what I had arrived at but I wanted to be sure that was the consensus thinking.
    16 Dec 2013, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Well you have two opinions anyway. Hopefully we're correct even if it doesn't represent consensus opinion.
    16 Dec 2013, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • And that concludes our relationship folks.

     

    Canadian Energy Company Installs Microgrid Demonstration Project At Head Office

     

    "PowerStream reports that in the current phase of the microgrid project, the company is drawing electricity from several sources, including a solar array; wind turbine; natural gas generator; solar-assisted carport charging station; and lead acid, lithium ion and sodium nickel chloride batteries.

     

    Corporate partners involved in the project include Enbridge, Enviro-Energy Technologies, General Electric, Navigant, Rosewater Energy, renewz sustainable solutions and SMA, PowerStream notes."

     

    http://bit.ly/1kQdBkU
    16 Dec 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • I may get corrected when I say this but to me it appears that this could fall into the category of another "failure to deliver" situation!

     

    Please educate me and help me understand where I am not thinking correctly!
    16 Dec 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco> Not necessarily. Couldn't the "lead-acid" reference be a reporter or PR room error when "lead-carbon" was meant?

     

    Is lead-acid even viable for something like this? I thought not. And with Rosewater mentioned, that could mean Axion as my understanding is that Rosewater is once again marketing for Axion.
    16 Dec 2013, 08:21 PM Reply Like
  • The project page lists Surette battery. Too bad. We'll catch them on generation 2, just like NS and ePower.
    http://bit.ly/1ekcnAW
    http://www.surrette.com
    16 Dec 2013, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • RA, I will not go any further out of respect but it appears to be a done deal. I was late to the party in having this perspective.

     

    As for what the best tech. for the application is? That is secondary based on other matters IMO. If I was rational, and I can be at times, PbC is a better fit than the options presented based on certain needs. I'm not privy to the data so we don't know.
    17 Dec 2013, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • Since the entire project will only use 40 kWh of batteries and three different chemistries, it's hard to call it a major victory or loss for anybody.
    17 Dec 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • JP, any loss on a deal like this is not only size...it's the opportunity to show that AXPW product works, and maybe works better. That makes it a major loss for AXPW. I still remember how the Navy yard system was touted as such a break thru for AXPW, even tho it was only a 30 battery system, and what it could lead to. So I don't see where blowing this off as no loss means much.

     

    It also shows the how damaging the relationship with Rosewater will cost AXPW business, however large or small amounts will be determined in the future.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • I'll take a quiet deployment of 600 batteries in a real application over a noisy deployment of 46 batteries in a demonstration project every day of the week. Over the last six months I've heard unrelenting angst over damage to the relationship with Rosewater. So far I haven't seen any performance on their part that convinces me the loss was all that significant. The milk was spilt a long time ago. It subsequently soured, dried and was blown away. Sooner or later we'll have to stop beating that dead horse and move on.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • It's a demonstrator. Everything has a beginning, a middle........
    17 Dec 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • It is these "quiet deployments" that are killing us. Everything is so quiet and shrouded under the cloak of an NDA that nobody has heard of Axion and PbC. Heck, even the engineering support at Multi-Link doesn't know what I'm talking about when I ask them how to get the PbC batteries to go with their power supplies--and they are supposed to be the ones who will use and sell the dang things.

     

    Axion needs to publish all available charge-discharge rating curve information and make the batteries available for sale through a distributor--and they need to do it LOUDLY.
    17 Dec 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • John,
    "I'll take a quiet deployment of 600 batteries in a real application over a noisy deployment of 46 batteries in a demonstration project every day of the week. "

     

    True, but after watching so much paint dry, I would prefer to have both. What happened...happened. But as a stockholder I hate to see wasted effort. But as you said, it's over, time to move on.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Nogoodslacker,
    "Axion needs to publish all available charge-discharge rating curve information and make the batteries available for sale through a distributor--and they need to do it LOUDLY."

     

    Maybe. I'm still waiting for the day when we hear an announcement from a European battery manufacturer that they've inked a deal to provide BMW with a supply of lead-carbon batteries for their new start-stop system. Axion's name might not be on the press release, but we will all know what it means.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech, you will be waiting well into year 2015 for that day. Same goes for NS and I also doubt ePower will ramp up significantly before end of 2014. In the meantime, they need to sell some batteries or we are finished. Pretty hard to do when nobody knows you exist.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • DOE Outlines the Path Forward for Energy Storage

     

    "In terms of cost-effectiveness, the DOE focused on the need for cheaper systems, not just cheaper components. “The storage component still constitutes only 30% to 40% of the total system cost, thus the focus needs to be on the entire system,” the study finds."

     

    http://bit.ly/1fzM3Qt
    16 Dec 2013, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Hard to compete with these pie in the sky numbers:

     

    "The DOE, which has various departments working on storage issues, outlined near-term and long-term performance targets for grid storage, including a AC storage system capital cost of under $250 per kilowatt-hour and more than 4,000 cycles in the short term."
    16 Dec 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • EOS: utility scale battery storage competitive with gas

     

    "The cost of battery storage is falling quicker than most analysts presume and could be competitive with gas-fired generation – even in the US, where gas prices are low – within the next 18 months.

     

    That’s the prediction of Steve Hellman, the president of battery storage start-up EOS Energy Storage, which intends to launch its zinc-air battery next year with a price of $200-$250/kWh."

     

    http://bit.ly/1dKKMEg
    17 Dec 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • 12/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 101, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol: 625460, AvTrSz: 6193
    Min. Pr: 0.1100, Max Pr: 0.1135, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1109
    # Buys, Shares: 22 161410, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1117
    # Sells, Shares: 78 456550, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1106
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 7500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1120
    Buy:Sell 1:2.83 (25.8% "buys"), DlyShts 143312 (22.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 31.39%

     

    The volatility still makes assessment uncertain – more “wait and see” seemed rational yesterday. Today I think not – I'm feeling strongly that with the original and newer of my inflection point calculations versions being so strongly in agreement, and other things such as trade size, volume, price declines, short behavior, ...

     

    I've tried to avoid expressing this assessment much too long now - we are heading below $0.11 very soon IMO.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0974 vs. $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987 and $0.0986 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0943 vs. $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954 and $0.0973 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    We are continuing to trade below the 50-day SMA (now $0.1187, down from the prior $0.1188, $0.1189 and $0.1190). Today's high was over 1/2 penny below the average. We also continue trading below my long-term descending resistance. The highs now seem to have stopped right at it seven of the last eight days.

     

    We took some out of our $0.11 “cushion” today – 42,4K shares.

     

    Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.44%, +7.80% and -9.29% respectively. The volume is near the range where I had hoped it would be over the last couple of weeks, but it seems it's now too late to be of any help in avoiding going below $0.11. That's my best assessment now.

     

    The additional detail, numbers and thoughts are in the blog here.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hXP4gO

     

    HardToLove
    16 Dec 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Picked up another 5k @0.113 yesterday and 7k @0.1106 today. Trying to get to 100k before 'significant' orders.
    16 Dec 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • HTL> As our resident chart guru, I'm wondering your thoughts on this: Here's a crude measure, but I think meaningful -- the number of trading days in each month that volume exceeded a million shares:

     

    July: 3
    August: 6
    September: 3
    October: 13
    November: 12
    December: just 1 day so far!

     

    Could it be that PIPErs have eased up and are waiting for higher prices to sell their remaining shares? I understand the price is currently being pressured downward but it's been on relatively low volume compared to the other months. Even lower using 'dollar volume'. Fatigue of demand side rather than overwhelming supply I would say.

     

    I'm trying to guess at a price point to buy with my remaining dry powder and basing it on an assessment of when the PIPErs seem to be done with major selling. JP sees them easing up by now and ceasing sell pressures by February as I recall. After February the look back window becomes irrelevant, so no reason for them to pressure the price.

     

    Another factor for me is my guess that there's quite a bit of dry powder out there just waiting for either good news or a further drop of a penny or two. I understand you see sub $.11 very soon, but I think it's highly unlikely an opportunity to buy for below $.09 will happen for several months unless a new badly dilutive financing is needed/announced. In that case a dreaded reverse split and some full ratchet kicking in could really deal us a blow.

     

    But I think it's worth the gamble to establish the position before, not after, sales start ramping. I don't think it will take much ramp at all to get the base excited -- the mere $320k sale announcement sure lifted spirits and the stock price in a hurry.
    16 Dec 2013, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • >Retired Aviator ... Pardon, but I don't think there is any rush before February. If (a big if) the PIPE want to throttle back and allow the price to rise it is going to take weeks for the sentiment to change. Everyone knows they will hold a price crushing volume and aren't afraid to use it. Besides, the vast majority of Axionistas are bottom feeders ... not momentum traders ... so paying up is not likely as things now stand.

     

    I think it will take real Market moving news and a whole new set of share buyers to move the price until the PIPE is gone. Just my 2 cents and I will return to the Peanut Gallery.
    16 Dec 2013, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • DRich,

     

    Well, how I see it is that $25 million is a quite depressed market cap and clearly undervalued. The stock often trades less than $100,000 of volume in an entire day. Some days we worry about breaching just $40,000!

     

    So this market that we have gotten used to for the ownership of PbC battery technology is a sort of rarefied vacuum, insulated from reality. One day I think the vacuum will be gone as a new bunch of investors will rule the AXPW market, at a much higher market cap. What the current crop does or doesn't do concerns me much less than what happens when the new crop discovers it.

     

    I understand that for years all the pessimistic views about the share price have looked prescient, and sales too. I just see all of that reversing sharply one day and I'm not nearly as convinced as others are that that day cannot be sooner rather than later.

     

    Markets are very forward looking. What's to stop, for example, some employees of a strategic partner who have insider knowledge about a highly likely contract to be announced several months out to covertly tell some family members to buy AXPW, who tell some friends? I know it's insider trading, but it happens every day. With $100k or less daily volume, VERY little new money coming in could move the price fairly quickly, news or no news. The vacuum effect, if you will.
    16 Dec 2013, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • I also grabbed 5k more Friday @.113, just in case NS made their announcement this week. Looks like my strategy was off by .003 or 133 shrs. :-)

     

    It seems to me if the PIPErs wanted to push the price below .11, today could have been the day. The pps hit .11 twice today on two above average share count sales. One at 41k and the other at 37.8k. After the first one at 11:51a.m. the pps climbed to .112 with about 200k shrs traded in 3 hours. Then we had the usual last 30 minute sell-off with .11 being the bottom at 3:41p.m.
    Is this because of the rules that the PIPErs can't sell more than a certain % of the days volume or just because many buyers jumped in at a dirt cheap price of .11?

     

    Tomorrow could be a very interesting test of the theories.
    16 Dec 2013, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • RA -

     

    Hope you're right, but I don't think low market caps are insulated from reality in the storage sector. They appear to be very much right in line with the lack of sales and empty promises or projections.

     

    One or two more 320K PCs will not do anything for Axion. IMO, the game changers are for either BMW or NS to move forward in a publicly visible way. Unfortunately, the signals that we are getting out of Newcastle are that the only near term possibility is PCs.

     

    Given the recent disappointment and watching ZBB and others struggle to sell stationary storage, I am not too confident in this market near term - especially when DOE is spouting off about prices needing to drop to $250 per kwh for stationary storage to be widely adopted. Depending on the numbers you use for 2 30HTs, 1kwh of PbC costs between $700-$1100.
    17 Dec 2013, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • I realized reading Masi's post... by yesterday, I meant Friday... As much as I love the optimism expressed by RA, I have to agree with Stefan to some extent. Where my opinion differs is that I don't think it needs to be BMW or NS to move the share price, it needs to be a larger dollar amount. Let's sell $1.5 mln of PbCs for a powercube or a couple powercubes to the same company and see what the share price does. I don't think that's unrealistic.
    17 Dec 2013, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • R.A. My reply started getting quite long (who would've guessed!). I'm working it off-line to make it more concise, hopefully.

     

    For now, I'll just point you to a couple charts that will demonstrate a couple of the points I'll want to make regarding the volume and demand.

     

    Compare the "AXPW Buy Percentage Averages" (fourth chart) one-year snapshot to the current, which I believe fairly represents what's happened to demand, on the two charts linked below.

     

    I believe volume *averages* are more suggestive of longer-term reality than short-term peaks and valleys, as the PIPErs should adjust their behavior to meet their goals. Look at John's monthly volume chart in the concentrator header or the averages on my two charts linked below. John's monthly volumes might be more suggestive of reality. In either case, my take, because of price, volume and buy percentage combination doesn't suggest much other than the PIPErs *may* be reducing price pressure by spreading the sales over longer periods. This may also be to try and avoid complete destruction of demand?

     

    The tough part is always "what does this mean" and I'm no more qualified than anyone in this assessment. I generally end up saying maybe this or maybe that.

     

    The one sure thing is that I'll never *know* what it means, or meant, even in retrospect.

     

    Blog with one-year snapshot, ended Feb., of my stuff:
    http://bit.ly/1cyvznP

     

    Or direct to the charts here:
    http://bit.ly/18wA32r

     

    My current EOD blog with charts:
    http://bit.ly/1hXP4gO

     

    Or direct to the charts:
    http://bit.ly/18wA32t

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • @isthisonebetter, don't worry, you will have plenty of time.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • Isthisonebetter, The answer is in this song. I suspect the warm up vocalist is an Axionista!

     

    http://bit.ly/19avCuN
    17 Dec 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan> If you think Axion's future will still be characterized by 'lack of sales and empty promises' then it's a lousy stock to own. If you think that changes dramatically, then it's a great stock to own now.

     

    With the kind of results ePower is getting in fuel economy, in the real world, and the fact that they have stated the Axion PbC is the only battery that works for them period, I just don't see "lack of sales and empty promises" to be what the future holds. When and how it plays out I don't know, but as the saying goes, "build a better mousetrap ... ".

     

    For certain very important charging/discharging characteristics, Axion has built a much, much better mousetrap that has no competition period. L-ion is a weak also ran in the areas where the PbC really shines. There's no other battery that can do what the PbC does for heavy motive, or for instantaneous response stationary power backup. Chemical reactions just don't happen as fast as carbon storage and they generate problematic heat when you push them. They also require heat so they suffer power loss at low temps. Finally the cells don't self equalize like a PbC which causes problems that require expensive solutions. If these things aren't compelling I don't know what is.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • RA,
    All of us here know the points that you have mentioned and agree with them. The problem is that some of us, like Stefan, have seen our investment in the company reduced in share price and diluted in number of shares outstanding. It's easy to say, if you don't believe in the company get out, it's harder when to do so would require the loss of most of your investment. So we hold on, watch others buy shares at a fraction of what we paid for them (just as John had to watch us by shares at a fraction of what he paid for them), and hope that the sales finally come and our investment in time and money pays off.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • "The problem is that some of us, like Stefan, have seen our investment in the company reduced in share price and diluted"

     

    Lab Tech,

     

    Believe me I understand the pain of watching shares I own wither. I've owned a number of stocks over the years that went completely bust too.

     

    But I disagree. The problem is not the shares tanking. It's actually the dwelling on the past and the pain, and letting intense emotions cloud one's judgement. The point is that the question is not whether you were a buyer at $.xx in the past. It's whether you are a buyer today (or holder, same thing) at $.11.

     

    Once I posted that if AXPW's fate is to head north of $2, this trip to $.11 is actually a blessing to load up on shares. Far better than the shares bought at higher prices.

     

    I also wrote in the past that many Axionistas who are highly critical of TG would not be critical at all if the share price today were $3.00 (and therefore financing not very dilutive). I think it's true and to me that's a disconnect. CEO is not in control of share price.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • HTL,

     

    Many thanks for your efforts here! Far beyond what I expected. I haven't replied earlier as I haven't had time yet to properly digest all your material. Once I do I'll probably have questions.

     

    Again, your work is invaluable to us! :-)
    18 Dec 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • RA, "CEO is not in control of share price."

     

    Hmmm, I think I have to respectfully disagree. Consistently missed metrics laid out by a CEO for revenue and sales, in addition to being unable to secure a strategic partner makes a difference. If he had met these metrics, things would be much different today.

     

    As they say in America, "The buck stops here". Apparently an old Italian proverb goes something like, "It's not good enough to aim, you must hit the mark". If TG had been hitting the mark on his own metrics, I believe the current pps could very well be as much as 1.00, and quite possibly much higher.
    19 Dec 2013, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • WiO,

     

    Maybe if some things were executed better share price would be different but maybe not. What about the many things that have been executed quite well in R&D and manufacturing?

     

    Let me ask you, whether you think today's valuation of under $25 million makes sense vis a vis the investors who valued with their hard earned cash in 2009 the far less developed PbC that at the time had hardly any interest from OEMs, ePower, and no track record or white paper data, at $80 million to $100 million? The market is now hugely disconnected from the business performance, as JP has argued repeatedly. I wholeheartedly agree, which is why I have been a buyer at $.30 and below.

     

    Ironically if the share price you would like of say $2.00 or something were reality, then I would not have bought and had this great opportunity to own a company that has a fantastic product it has +already+ maneuvered through a huge amount of R&D and marketing +successfully+.

     

    It's only my opinion, but one I have formed after getting a finance degree and studying markets, investments, and economics for a couple decade, that share prices can be hugely disconnected from reality. In fact that is why I choose to trade for a living as the mispricings make things exciting and lucrative. If securities were always rationally priced I'd probably find another line of work. You wouldn't get these huge emotional sector swings etc, which by the way, battery innovator stocks are very much out of favor. Your CEO should get some padding for that at least.
    19 Dec 2013, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • >Retired Aviator ... I bought into Axion even before that. The 2 most shocking things to me have been the failure to attract any Capital investment interest, similar to Gelbaum, to own a piece of the device and, the big one to me, the failure to get a customer to commit to an application. I mean I was jazzed at the potential of the device long before it actually existed. Axion chased the Big Fish with much benefit from them toward the R&D/manufacturing. I'm guessing Axion was under the impression application development meant application adoption. Thus doesn't seem to be the case in any timeframe that is beneficial to Axion.

     

    Some have even referred to Axion as a "partner". I've always figured that business partners actually transacted business activity to the mutual benefit of both. I now have two new similar but different definitions for what a partnership can mean. Neither are of great business benefit in the short term. I can't blame management too much but can be disappointed that they didn't see it coming and try to fend it off or offset it by finding/supporting smaller, hungrier clients such as ePower. There are (were) such smaller opportunities that got passed over in favor of the homerun customer or alliance.
    19 Dec 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich,

     

    Great points. Over the years we all have been waiting for home runs when maybe we should have been playing small ball. Finally, EPower and its ilk are a least giving us some hope for PbC sales (hat tip to JP for the intro and for now helping steer the EPower ship).

     

    Imagine if Axion and EPower could have made it work many years ago but I assume neither was that jazzed about the other back then. Or heck what if JP never left Axion's inner circle. Maybe he would helped them hit a many more singles instead of these pinch hits.

     

    Some may argue JP is the only reason the stock didn't collapse years back. But even his words can stem the recent avalanche of shares.
    19 Dec 2013, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • >bazooooka ... For years I've been quite content with the development of the device and the marketing philosophy of catering to NSC, BMW, Viridity and whoever else is in the mix. Now that I've seen the energy and enthusiasm in the ePower application I think Axion should have spent a bit more time on smaller developers. This is not to say the "Big Boys" should have been downplayed but I don't think they deserved Axion's undivided attention and capital expenditure.

     

    I understand we can't unring the bell and I can't fault Axion for doing what they did because it was so beneficial. I just look at the comparison between the business performance of the Fortune 500 and the up & coming entrepreneur in ePower and wonder. Anyway, I'm sure I couldn't make any better on-the-spot decisions than what have been made. Just some Valley of Death retrospective lament.
    19 Dec 2013, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • What is the word on the ePower Daycab? Wasn't it going to be using the existing 4 banger? Was it being worked on in parallel or is it waiting for its big brother to be completed?
    16 Dec 2013, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • We're going to use the same Cummins six for both the sleeper and the day cab. The work is being done sequentially. So once the sleeper is on the road and working properly, we'll turn our attention to the day cab while we have the sleeper out with potential customers.
    16 Dec 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • So John, IIUC then the JD engine is out altogether? And going forward only Cummins? (ooh, I made a funny ;)
    16 Dec 2013, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • We believe most potential customers will require an EPA certified on-road engine and while I wouldn't want to burn any bridges, it looks like the Cummins will have more curb appeal with the truckers.
    17 Dec 2013, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • Are there no EPA certified 4 cylinder engines available or the performance is not good enough? Seems that there would be a market for it. Customers with point to point routes that would like the additional fuel savings of a smaller engine.

     

    Is Cummins giving a better price if you use their engines a consideration or do they see you as cutting into their market?
    17 Dec 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • For now, our goals are defined by industry standard performance benchmarks for hauling capacity and speed. We can worry about optimizing the individual components after we've succeeded in building a tractor that works the way it needs to. Trying to make something perfect before going to market is a great way to never get to market.
    17 Dec 2013, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • John: a possible follow-on revenue stream?

     

    The basic kit the customer installs gets them going. A later service appointment with ePower for route optimization, for a reasonable fee? Possibly performance based to assure customer satisfaction?

     

    Yes, too early to think about it much. But it would enhance the customer relationship?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • http://bloom.bg/1fAJIEN

     

    Wind Power Rivals Coal With $1 Billion Order From Buffett
    17 Dec 2013, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • Ford Says 70% of its Cars Will Have Start-Stop Tech by 2017
    "Start-Stop tech can improve fuel efficiency by up to 10%"
    http://bit.ly/1bXbhHS
    17 Dec 2013, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • ZBB gets new phase of strategic partnership with Lotte Chemical : Now has funding thru 2014

     

    http://bit.ly/1bXelE3
    17 Dec 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks LT. Stock is up 74%
    17 Dec 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • I like to think that if BMW ever gave Axion a public nod like wherein PbC's would be going into their start/stop vehicles, Axion would have violent upward swing and then be able raise money at a reasonable rate to move forward with their commercialization plan.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Anyone know where we can find a lead acid battery that doesn't suffer from sulfation at PSOC?

     

    60 second Interview Guy Morris

     

    "48 volts could be the enabling technology for mild hybrids
    Guy Morris, engineering director, Controlled Power Technologies"

     

    ""Lithium solutions, which would be ideal, in terms of mass and size, are still prohibitively expensive. A solution might be enhanced lead acid batteries. Admittedly, there's an issue with sulfation. But, if someone can make a significant materials breakthrough in the next 12-18 months, then we could see the first vehicle launches in 2014-15, based on where we are today – we have customer vehicles with that potential." "

     

    http://bit.ly/IS6rkp
    17 Dec 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Hasn't this guy heard of the PbC?
    17 Dec 2013, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna, I'm sure he does. But if he works for CPT he's probably an ex Ford guy. So he falls into the "see no or speak no monkey" camp.

     

    On a positive note, since they executed the CPT prototype vehicles with Exide Edge batteries w/ carbon additives we know what he thinks of those . {spit here}
    17 Dec 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Nobody has heard of PbC, not even the techs and sales people for the companies that are supposed to sell it (e.g., Multi-Link). Until you can actually open a catalog and get the specs and actually buy one, it will continue that way.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • >Amouna ... More than likely not but if he has he may be longing for a long duration energy battery and not rapid charge/discharge power battery. Seldom do these people spell out what they are looking for. Like most people, even engineers in the the industry have a hard time thinking there is more than one function a battery can provide. The standard has (and continues to be) a battery feeding a (or bank of) capacitors when power is needed. Axion has a solution that no one is aware of. This is why an application being in the field and doing work is so important.

     

    Who knows when? It is becoming quite clear this is going to have to be a bottoms up process.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Well it was a nice block on the bid.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • 480K just taken out of our $0.11 cushion.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT + another 23K
    17 Dec 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Half a million shares transacted in 20 min since opening, now thats volume...
    17 Dec 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Was that 520k at 9:35 one trade or several? I was on the phone with my doctor and couldn't follow it.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • I see 40K@9:35.05, 480K@9:35.07.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Masi: 400K, 80K, 23K.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Thnx guys. I was only away for a few minutes and when I looked, I did a double take.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Masi: " I did a double take"

     

    A benefit of having a rapid DCA profile! You can do it twice with no degradation!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • HTL, on a slow day in a slow week in a slow month, there is time to analyze to one's heart's content. Since we know that each of the four PIPEr cannot represent >15% of the day's trading volume at any time of any day, what does that say about who wasn't the seller of the giant block early this morning? At least all of it?
    17 Dec 2013, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • MrI: that's one of the things I'll never know and don't want to guess at.

     

    The logical thing is that a long-time big Axion investor decided to back out and re-enter later when things looked more rosy.

     

    But then, as long as we've been degrading, why wait until now?

     

    As to the prohibitions, certainly you don't believe that I believe that they believe they are bound to contractual obligations like us mere mortals do you?

     

    One of the best lessons I've learned about anything to do with the financial industry is if they think they can get away with it they will do it.

     

    The wrist slaps the SEC hands out are just "cost of business".

     

    Do it a hundred, get caught once - good risk reward.

     

    Besides if the 400K seller hits first, it's the other PIPErs disadvantage.

     

    Unless Axion is looking at this stuff, no one else is - so low risk.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • HTL> Agreed that many finance people cheat. It's epidemic even. However, if I remember my contract law course correctly from back in the 80's, if a party willingly breaches a contract then the counterparty is no longer bound.

     

    So the risk could be far more than a slap. Methinks it could mean loss of full ratchet protection, early conversion rights, even Equity Failure contingencies, etc. Maybe someone more versed in contract law could weigh in on this?
    17 Dec 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • R.A: Agreed. The hook is, it seems to me, that the chances of getting caught are very small with the market structures we have now.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • HTL> Getting caught by random SEC check --> yes extremely low chance esp since the SEC isn't tuning into to private contracts.

     

    However if someone should ask the SEC to look into suspicious trading activity the SEC can easily get all the details of all trading activity down to which customer accounts originated it. Very easy reports to print out and no brokerage is going to deny them to the SEC, so I'd say the risk is real and the penalties steep.
    17 Dec 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • R.A.: I published a thing on some odd behavior on UNG once long go (an article or blog still up), e-mailed CFTC and SEC. Got a nice phone call from the SEC and heard no more.

     

    Time stamps don't lie.

     

    Nothing was done.

     

    Of course, it's just as likely I was wrong in my suspiocions, but after seeing the CNBC video long ago that had SEC staffers watching porn on their computers in the background, I have no confidence in that organization.

     

    That's ignoring the revolving-door issues that have been known for so long.

     

    Anyway, nothing to gain talking of it.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • HTL
    I was on to a P&D once and wrote the SEC about it.
    My evidence was things like the company Magnum d'Or Resources MDOR) stated it was getting tipping fees from the state of Colorado when the state was not paying such fees.

     

    The company was eventually shut down. Not that it had anything to do with my input. The company had already gotten a Wells notice when I wrote the SEC. The company just was not disclosing the fact that they had gotten a Wells notice (Also illegal.)

     

    I got an Email from the SEC saying thanks for the info. We won't be contacting you again.
    17 Dec 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • :-) Time to offer shares @ $1 ?
    17 Dec 2013, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • The PIPErs are in full swing this morning.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • End of Year selling as they need to window-dress their books for bonus time. I don't blame them, they are feeding off the turkey for as long as they can!
    17 Dec 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • ARCA appeared on the offer at 10:03. AFAICT we'll be capped at $0.112 or lower because they and BTIG & CSTI are all on that offer.

     

    Usually we have only one on the best offer, with only an occasional "cohabitation" partner.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Could there have been a "Public Announcement" that isn't yet 100% public?
    17 Dec 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Greentongue: since a large part of the volume, ~500K was to bids that had been standing at $0.11 for a long time, I don't think so. I believe it's just the usual selling into the bid behavior, especially when ARCA's on the ask.

     

    BTW, they are gne for now, but the trading range has already beem lowered and likely wont be moved up much, if at all.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue,

     

    If there is, it hasn't hit the internet yet. Maybe someone hoping that there will still be an announcement this month on PowerCube sales? Otherwise just someone(s) increasing their position while prices are extremely low.
    17 Dec 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • New blog on Alt Energy Stocks on Axion. The author should really re-read her work before she hits publish.

     

    What's a SuperCube?

     

    http://bit.ly/18U1aTc
    17 Dec 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • "What's a SuperCube?"

     

    A Powercube with a nearby phone booth and no nearby Kryptonite.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • HTL,
    You're answer is almost right. A SuperCube is a 0.5MW PowerCube that steps into a nearby phone booth and comes out as a 5MW SuperCube sale!
    17 Dec 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • And it sells for 250 USD/kWH.

     

    Super! I'll take it! Err, if it's lithium ion.
    17 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Any positive visibility is good.
    17 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Starting to look more and more likely Santa Granville is coming home empty handed this Christmas too :(

     

    He spent all the monies on getting extra bouncy shoes, but no presents!
    17 Dec 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • We still have ten and 1/4 days and I'm still optimistic about NS.

     

    p.s. thodoc, I feel for you, FCEL is down a whopping 20%. Hope you took some gains yesterday.
    17 Dec 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Did fine and will buy more at this price in the next day or so, when I'm sure it bottomed.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc, I got out of FCEL a while back at a profit and have been looking for a re-entry point. This may be it.
    18 Dec 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc: With respect to FCEL: Looks like the bottom might have been put in yesterday. Perhaps today is a good... partial..... reentry.
    18 Dec 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Chart of investor psychology. Hat tip to Dr Kris.
    http://bit.ly/1kdSKuv
    17 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Has anyone bothered to look at Axion's Qtrly financials?

     

    They spent Zero on R&D in the previous Quarter and eliminated that category entirely in the latest Qtr.

     

    Is it at a "technological" Dead End where R&D will not improve the product(s) ?
    17 Dec 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • I think it is "Good Enough" until demand justifies more expenditure.
    The battery is already better than what else is on the market and look how much good that is doing.
    I believe the consensus is to put that money into marketing instead. They had to pay blood for the money, they intend to be careful how they spend it.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • They officially announced transitioning out of being a "development stage" company this year so R&D budget is now shifted to marketing which I think everybody on this board applauds at this juncture in time.
    17 Dec 2013, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • GAAP rules for research and development costs require them to be separately stated and expensed until a product is fully developed. Once a product has been fully developed enhancements that do not constitute a distinct new product are not separately stated.

     

    Axion has developed a technology that will undoubtedly improve over time as all products do. Work on future enhancements will not be accounted for as R&D, however, unless the enhancement is material enough to merit classification as an entirely new product.

     

    If you would like a more thorough understanding of the rules, FASB Statement No. 2 is a great place to start.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bcG9zC
    17 Dec 2013, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Freya,
    I would also point out that we have heard repeatedly that Axion has taken the time to slightly modify the negative electrode on the PbC to give it a slightly more favorable power or energy motif. So while they may not be trying to do major research to develop a new battery, they are still working to give their potential customers a PbC battery that best meets their customer's needs.
    17 Dec 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • Greentongue: "They had to pay blood for the money, they intend to be careful how they spend it."

     

    I would like to think so, but TG's upcoming annual bonus (not including Vani's) will be more than the down payment Axion received on their last PowerCube sale. As far as I know, this PC sale was their only new source of revenue since TG's first bonus installment in April '13. --- I wish they were a little more careful and judicious with their bonus policy. After all, they're being paid for with blood money.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • Improbable that Axion execs bar new CFO ($0.15) will see money from their options priced $1.50 and above. They should receive more appropriately priced options as incentives not this BS cash bonus nonsense. The company has no cash. It should not be doling more $$ out to execs, they are all well remunerated at base. Incentivize them to get some product out the door. The current set up is completely a$$ backwards. The PIPEists are not the only ones making good here at the expense of others.

     

    Cash bonuses over 3 yrs per exec $45k. Issue each 450k options at $.15, they take the stock to $1 and make $382,500. Same dilutive impact to stockholder base (at PIPEist pricing), but one motivated exec.
    18 Dec 2013, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • Anthlj and WiO,

     

    Amen, I am with you with regards to the bonus policy. Regardless of what happens to Axion going forward, TG is more than well compensated in either case. As much as I would like to think that management's interests and shareholders' are currently in line, I can't help but notice the deck is slightly rigged in their favor...
    18 Dec 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • Those guys.

     

    Corvus Energy Wins $12M Wind/Solar Grid Energy Storage Contract to be Deployed in China's Gobi Desert.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bcIjiI
    17 Dec 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Puerto Rico introduces mandate for energy storage in new renewable projects

     

    " Under new regulations, operators of renewable energy projects will be required to add 30% of the installation’s rated capacity in storage to aid frequency control, as well as the flexibility to keep 45% of the project’s capacity in reserve for at least one minute for ramping control to compensate for fluctuations in generated power from variable sources."

     

    http://bit.ly/1bcIMSe
    17 Dec 2013, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... Finally, a specification that is right in the PbC wheelhouse. Now let's see if it even gets a chance to compete.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • ii - good article on PR. Would start to be interesting if a bunch of mandates began hitting in 2014 rather than the California plan which doesn't seem to have any teeth for at least a couple years.
    17 Dec 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • "All" products do not improve over time as many bankrupt companies can attest.

     

    I know this to be a fact as I have owned more than a few of them.

     

    Axion appears to be basing, but until it actually starts an upward move, it won't be on my radar.

     

    CPST is a site specific clean tech which is starting to get attention outside the Oil and Gas Industry.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Freya, "Axion appears to be basing, but until it actually starts an upward move, it won't be on my radar."
    .........................

     

    Basing, despite virtually no sales and massive PIPR dilution, is actually pretty impressive. Unchanged pps on large volume, such as today's 1.75M shares, is always a good day in my book. Get those shares out of the hands of the PIPRs!

     

    The day is coming when sales arrive and the PIPRs are gone. And the upward move could be explosive. I might try timing this if I was currently sitting on the sidelines, but being fully invested, I'll continue to wait. --- I suppose I could sell and do everybody a favor, because the pps would probably explode the very next day.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • WIO, That's the way it works for me .My brother, too. He, unfortunately bought into the IPO on FB. Of course, it tanked. He held for a long time with no stock movement, decided to sell. The next day, FB started on a tear and is still going. Had he held, he would have been up 20%. That's the way it goes. I'm with you. I'm holding and still accumulating.
    18 Dec 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Meanwhile I'm up some 95% by not buying into the "AXPW" cool tech a few years ago when it was around $2 or even last year when it was around 30 cents and It was supposed to be a "5-10 bagger" within 12 months,

     

    Those 12 months have come and gone and it sits at 11 cents.

     

    I'll wait patiently on the sidelines because investing in AXPW before anything comes to fruition has been a historical disaster.

     

    So I miss an "explosive" move to the upside. It will continue its move if it becomes commercially viable and all I would need is a 20 bagger just to get back to $2.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • @Freya: That's sound advice. I bought in around .29 last year on the hype that sales were imminent. Not worth selling those shares now, but I am now a skeptic and won't buy any new shares until they have a clear path to profitability. All I see now is everything is at least one year out (probably more like two years), save for an occasional power cube sale to cover executive bonuses.
    18 Dec 2013, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • WiO,

     

    Priceless. Actually your system would really launch if we worked in concert. :>)

     

    Please note that some blabbermouth (whom I will not name out of kindness) was on this board reminding me of my long-held spectator status on FCEL. He claimed it was gaining traction. That re-kindled my interest in them so I nibbled last Wednesday. Please note it has joined the cliff diving club since.

     

    In the interests of avoiding further face plants (a'hem) I'll not go further with this.

     

    This works kinda like my effect on the NFL. My two favorite teams are the Redskins and Falcons. They put on a clinic this past week as the two most miserable teams in FB whilst playing each other. If the Redskins had an ounce of sense they'd pay me $10M on a signing bonus to pay them no heed. They'd own the superbowl for ten consecutive years.

     

    Same-same equities. Axion would do itself proud sending me a large check to get out. They'd own the world in short order. If the plumbers exist to fix a few minor leaks in our water supply I'd be the Great Lakes adding.
    18 Dec 2013, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • VW,

     

    It is interesting that almost all of us feel the exact same way about our prognostication skills for stocks and our football teams.
    18 Dec 2013, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • VW-
    I know you were talking about some other blabbermouth :-) but hold your FCEL. They reported out badly and did not describe their situation well. They spent have a lot of $$ building inventory and building a number of cells for a park for which they will receive $$ in the first quarter. So, they should be profitable this quarter; it's a small company, $200,000,000 with a very expensive product, so when they get paid becomes an issue. So profitability will come when they are productive at 70--80 kW production and the payments line up. For the first time in their history they are at 70kWs and have the capability to produce at 100kW in the present plant. They have over 300kW in the pipe line in the USA and Europe and 200kW in Asia.

     

    Hold your stock and buy at these levels, if you have done your DD and believe their Vision. Also technically there are higher lows and higher highs since .80 per share.

     

    Don't buy because someone says its a good stock...that is how we all got here.

     

    I'd brought them up here because so many writers here believe that a few sales will make AXPW sky rocket. I do not believe it will skyrocket as the sentiment re lead acid batteries is not good. FCEL has 350,000,000 back log and the stock has not sky rocketed.

     

    What I've learned with FCEL is that a stock that is in a new area with bad sentiment has to have a clear path to sustained profitability from several sources before the stock will go up and stay up.

     

    You can go up and down with profitability as some pump and dump, but for sustained growth there must be enough sales sources so the loss of the 'big' customer is not a problem.

     

    There is something else. Getting rich in the market doesn't happen to many people. And, it would only happen by sheer accident if one bought stocks based on what other people say. This group and Axion have taught me so many lessons that I take forward into other investments. Thanks to all.
    18 Dec 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc,

     

    FCEL has a market cap of $285 million even after the big drop. That market cap for comparison purposes would be skyrocketing for AXPW from its current market valuation of ~$25 million, putting the share price for AXPW at $1.30.

     

    According to my brief research on Ameritrade, neither company has ever earned a profit, the most important metric for investors. Yes, I think you are right about the sentiment thing, and how sentiment has turned up for fuel cells recently. (285 mil for losses!)
    18 Dec 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • RA, "(285 mil for losses!)"

     

    I can happen on many scales.AMZN. Is that short for AMaZiNg?
    18 Dec 2013, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • One takeaway for newbies, anyway, and a reminder for other investors is that many pros are sector investors. Alt-energy went out of favor, and the battery sector within that especially, when just about every stk got pummeled. I firmly believe being so out-of-favor kept other large investors away from AXPW, just when it badly needed replacements for the 12/2009 investors' selling, and the two additional rounds of fund-raising since then. It is one of the biggest explanations for why the stk is way down here at 11 cents. While us little guys have done a phenomenal job buying a lot of shares, the big guys don't really give a **it.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • RA -

     

    FCEL has 192M shares outstanding. So on a short look with price potential, it would appear to be similarly situated with respect to price appreciation potential in the face of very good news of partnerships for Axion.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco> one of the doom and gloom financial publications used to refer to Amazon as the river of no returns.
    18 Dec 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • FCEL has institutional ownership of about 25%, compared to 1% for Axion. No institutional is holding AXPW for the time being. If the stock were to rally, the fuel for the rocket climb will HAVE to come from institutional buying...
    18 Dec 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. I> I think you nailed it on the head as far as why battery stocks are down. Plus it seems reasonable to some to just shun the whole sector simply because so many battery stocks have bankrupted. Promises failed.

     

    The other thing is that institutional money not only +won't+ look at illiquid penny stocks, but it +can't+. Funds often don't have charter latitude to hold penny stocks or low volume stocks even if they want to. Plus, the typical retail investor seeing their fund hold a stock that's 11 cents a share will assume it's a bad and risky stock and the manager lousy. Not worth the headaches dealing with those investors and risking reputation if the stock does to go zero. Few people understand that a 50/50 chance of either A) losing 100% or B) gaining 10,000% is actually a very good bet. If A happens they just think you suck but if B happens they think you're a genius. (I'm not saying AXPW has those odds, just an example.)

     

    Stefan> Yes if the market were to look at AXPW the way it now sees FCEL then share price would move to a similar range. Personally I wouldn't make assumptions about "sentiment" changes, as thotdoc so aptly calls it. It's certainly possible that a series of really great news and ramping sales on multiple fronts could propel AXPW north of $1.00 within a couple years. I'm not counting on it by any means.

     

    iindelco> Yep, AMZN and a host of others. NFLX is one that seems to captivate a wide investing base to foolish multiples. At least unlike AMZN it tanks badly on occasion so I make a bit by shorting NFLX on its big run ups.
    18 Dec 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • RA, yep, some institutional money can't buy a penny stk, but there is plenty of such money that can. It's a question of "do they want to" and who is "they." In an extremely weak macro environment but enthusiastic battery one in 2009 we got Blackrock, et al. In 2013's much stronger macro environment but extremely weak battery one, we got the PIPErs. All other things being equal, it's a powerful example of which environmental factor has been the dominant one.

     

    I suppose in the end it's just another example of the hype cycle. Here's to hoping we're in the bounce phase already. That gives me an idea---for investors, another important cycle is what I might call the "Financing Cycle." Probably largely mirrors the Hype Cycle, but perhaps leads it a bit. Hmmm, that idea may have a lot of useful value...

     

    But then again, venture capital is prob way ahead of me on that one...
    18 Dec 2013, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • FWIW, and I am a new convert to thinking this way so I may be too enthusiastic, the thought is sentiment is what moves stocks in the short term…I think sentiment is what Buffett referred to as the voting machine rather than the weighing machine.
    18 Dec 2013, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco,

     

    Here's another way that Amazon is amazing: I listed a bunch of my old books on Amazon's third party Marketplace where they sell my book and I ship it right to the customer. Amazon never takes possession of the book (just the money). I laughed on 12/22 when I got this notice from Amazon to ship a book they sold. Compare the selling price of the book with Amazon's fees. It's so ridiculous you couldn't make stuff like this up!

     

    Quantity: 1
    Order date: 12/22/2013
    Price: $2.77
    Amazon fees: -$2.76
    Shipping: $3.99
    Your earnings: $4.00

     

    And they still hardly turn a profit. Wow.
    23 Dec 2013, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • RA, But you're making a killing! ;-P

     

    AMZN. Hasn't booked a profit yet.
    23 Dec 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Day after day, alone in PA. The man with the magic anode greets another cold day. But nobody wants to know him.They can see that he's just a fool. And he never gives an answer (NDA) .

     

    Chorus

     

    http://bit.ly/1fEsA1a
    18 Dec 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Navigant just published a new report on Stop-Start Vehicles that forecasts 55 million units and $9.8 billion in revenue a year by 2022. In a big shift from the "king lithium" perspective Navigant normally touts, they're only giving 12.6% of the market to lithium in 2022.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fEv6Eq
    18 Dec 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Great song. Sergio Mendez and Brasil 66 version is my fav. In 1964 I was working at a pharmacy as a "soda jerk". After I closed the grill, my job was to deliver medications using the companies Ford Galaxie, about a 60's model. One night, as I was delivering drugs and listening to WIFE-AM out of Indianapolis, the DJ played a song by the Beatles (I think it was "I wanna hold your hand"). I was completely blown away by the sound. I went to school the next day and asked my classmates if they had heard this new group called "The Beatles". People looked at me with these puzzled expressions. With-in two days, they were the RAGE. Amazing! Went to the Beatles Concert in INDY later that year. Heard the first guitar chord of "It's been a hard days night", and that was all for the rest of the concert. All you could hear were the teenage girls screaming!
    18 Dec 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • It's an interesting dilemma as well because the LAB guys can continue to sell their solution to the OEM's at a very low cost because they can milk the sheeple for another large number of replacement units at a good margin over the life of the vehicle. This will not be the case for the lithium ion guys because in order to justify their high cost they need long life. Thus maybe one replacement cycle and they have to wait a long time to get the profitable unit sold. We know the auto concerns are not going to reward them on the OE unit.

     

    It's the same game being played for wiper blades. Most of the innovation has been in patenting the means of attachment to the wiper arm. Then they sell the OEM blade to the automotive concern below cost and after that they sell replacement units above market price to the sheeple and split the bounty. Anyone else that wants to manufacture that type of connection on their wiper blade has to pay a licensing fee.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • I wonder how much the painfully slow BMW PbC adoption process is due to Axion not giving in to BMW's pricing demands. Iinde has said the autos are extremely demanding in their margin allowances and we've heard that part of the story w/ RW is that Axion would not give in to their low pricing request. I'm not taking sides on the debate, just wondering while everyone waits for news.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • MrI: BMW's pricing demands would be indirect. Their demands would be on their tier 1 entity. That would flow through to Axion, of course, but does allow some wiggle room based on what kind of volumes the tier 1 entity sees.

     

    That could result in quantity-stepped contracts, and other mechanisms, that allow both Axion and the tier one to benefit over the long-haul.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2013, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • There are many stories about the resemblance between large corporations and extinct species, dinosaurs in particular. The length of time it would take for even a strong message to penetrate the thick hide, and then make its way over the crude nervous system to the tiny brain... Well, its the root of many jokes.

     

    BMW is obviously getting feedback from customers in Europe about S/S system problems. What we have seen is that whatever they ultimately do to address these issues (if anything) will not occur quickly.

     

    I remember one notable meeting I attended where some controversy involving our second largest customer and their penurious methods of making certain that we lost money on them every year were becoming a "7 zero" problem for us. I know for a fact that mere "6 zero" problems with other things got short shrift from our upper management...

     

    I wonder how many zeroes are needed to get BMW off the dime? I suspect this must become a "9 zero" problem before the dinosaur feels the pain.
    18 Dec 2013, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • The problem the automakers face is actuarial. If only one customer in ten complains about their stop-start problems, then its always cheaper to give the complainer a $150 stop-gap fix than to spend $1,000 extra building 10 cars that won't have any problems.

     

    The real incentive to do the reasonable thing doesn't kick in until some agency says "and we're going to inspect the stop-start systems every couple years to make sure they're functioning properly."
    18 Dec 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Intentional poor design with a easy OFF switch goes a long way towards delaying adoption.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • John, It's worse than being actuarial. They are like the oil change industry. They want to provide a certain level of assured service to get you into the shop so they can point out all the other things that need attention. Plus it establishes a relationship. It's one of the reasons BMW makes it necessary to reprogram the vehicle when you put in a new battery instead of hitting a reset button.
    18 Dec 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • ADJUSTED DATA! The issues mentioned below prevented completion of my normal stuff. Just wanted to get this preliminary up.

     

    12/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 106, MinTrSz: 131, MaxTrSz: 400000, Vol: 1751272, AvTrSz: 16521
    Min. Pr: 0.1100, Max Pr: 0.1139, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1106
    # Buys, Shares: 26 336964, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1113
    # Sells, Shares: 78 1365288, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1105
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 49020, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1110
    Buy:Sell 1:4.05 (19.2% "buys"), DlyShts 236700 (13.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.34%

     

    There were apparently 35K shares in canceled trades today which I have no way to identify. So I don't know number of trades involved, what price they were at, whether they were buys, sells or unknown. The quantity is small enough, relative to today's volume that the error introduced should be minor.

     

    What I've done is proportionally adjust all derived data, but not raw input. So, e.g. I recorded 106 trades and left it unchanged, along with number of buys, sells, ... Derived figures, such as shares and dollar value of buys, sells, ... have been proportionally adjusted. Should be good enough for government work.

     

    We took out some more of our $0.11 “cushion” today, 503,131. Combined with yesterdays 42.4K shares, we should be down to roughly 310K if nobody that had those orders in changes their mind.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0970 vs. $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992 and $0.0987 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0940 vs. $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978 and $0.0954 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    I'll get things updated in the blog as time permits.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Dec 2013, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • >JP ... Wow! That leaves 87.4% to Pb & Ultracaps. I wonder if there is any room in there for a combined device. If so, I think I know where one might be found. I find this idea encouraging for what I consider Axion's second most needed development ... a battery OEM agreement. Here's hoping this next year brings such a thing.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • >JP and DRich
    It is my dream that one day nearly every car on the road will have PbC under the hood.

     

    http://bit.ly/18yGrGx
    18 Dec 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • >Patrick Young ... Keep dreaming BIG. My hope is to read about just one.
    18 Dec 2013, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • My dream is somewhere in between because it will not be on every vehicle and nobody will scale it for one vehicle.

     

    Time sure is getting tight for my original target timing.
    18 Dec 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Drove the 5 north to Portland, OR, Monday. Estimated 400 18-wheelers per hour southbound, 90% sleepers. Big smile.
    18 Dec 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Well, when you consider that the likes of Toyata and Honda gained market share purely on reliability, an automaker would be wise to spend extra on a part that is a common point of failure.
    18 Dec 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick---where are the good old fashioned attack ads when we need them?

     

    Well, still alive I see:

     

    http://bit.ly/1jiSpZv

     

    Not only my new favorite commercial, but shows at least one car company has the stones to throw stones. I guess here's to hoping that Fiat/Chrysler wants the PbC.
    18 Dec 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • I like that one!!
    18 Dec 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • I came so d*mn close to buying one of those, this year . . .
    18 Dec 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like