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  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
     
    There's no one here. Am I first? That's a first.
    21 Dec 2013, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    right place at the write time ...
    21 Dec 2013, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    Three French hens.
    21 Dec 2013, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    I just saw this and it seems to echo what you've written about Tesla and their use of EV credits. It's unfortunate you weren't credited.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ibjHQ0
    21 Dec 2013, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Renzo
    Your link had a link to a Tesla forum where members talked about battery swaps in the real world.
    http://bit.ly/1a25Xip
    A couple of comments by Pungoteague_Dave he had his 85kwh battery replaced.

     

    "My battery swap happened this week in Rockville. My 85's battery went bad in the parking lot at Rockville while waiting for other scheduled service, so they had to replace it. The job took 3 hours of mechanic labor, and 7600 units of ethylene glycol, three seals, two dozen bolts, and a replacement cover (I am looking at the 9-page repair order as I write this). When we asked the service tech about why it took so long since they are designed for swapping (we already knew better), he just laughed.
    I was not wrong about feasibility of swap, except that I did not believe the announcement would be a swap. I was wrong about it, but not about the substance. It still isn't feasible, but once "demonstrated" is quite valuable as a "feature" for tax and marketing purposes. That's all it is. IT CANNOT be done with existing cars. Anyone having spent ten minutes under the car, much less the hours I have under my car, disassembling and re-assembling, would know that it is mechanically not possible with cars that have been delivered so far. There are panels UNDER and attached TO the battery that have to be removed and there is no amount of automation that make that happen. There were either modified panels under the demo car, or a person under there working very fast. And that does no begin to deal with the manual coolant bleeding and torque verification that would be required after any automated swap process - after all, the battery is a stressed part of the car's body structure. The existing cars have glue/mastic/sealant around the battery as part of the attachment process - the issues go on and on, but it isn't even a question that swapping batteries in existing the Model S deliveries cannot be done the way it was demonstrated."

     

    And

     

    " My main high voltage battery had to be replaced at the Rockville SC this week. The time charge was three hours, plus 7600 units of ethylene glycol, a couple dozen replacement bolts, several seals, clips and a replacement cover. When I asked why it took so long if the car is so swap-ready, the SC staff just laughed and said they' believe it when the see it. In my case, it actually took a full man-day to do the swap, although the TM specification is for 3 hours. A lot of stuff happened under the demo car that was PT Barnum-level illusion. I will be glad to post a pdf of the 9-page work order that includes my multi-hour battery "swap".

     

    Unfortunately he was not asked for a PDF.
    There was a second member claiming a battery replacement after only 3 weeks of ownership.

     

    "PD is correct. My battery also failed (week three) and was replaced. Replacement took a full day: half to troubleshoot the issue, half to replace the battery. Significant disassembly/reassembly was required. They also wanted to keep the car and drive it 50 miles for testing, but I agreed to take it as-is and inform them of any issues."

     

    I would love to know how many batteries they are replacing.
    Fortunately for Tesla they are very cheap. I think Walmart has them on sale for Xmas. :-)
    22 Dec 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    After some weeks of not reading regularly, I just spent a couple hours going through Axion Concentrator 290.
    Being a person with endless questions and few answers, I came up with a couple more questions.
    So, do I understand this PIPE thing correctly?;
    The "source of capital" gives AXPW a bunch of cash, deposited into accounts that can be accessed to run the company. In return the "source" gets a bunch of stock issued on a monthly basis at a discount to the market price, which they can immediately sell to earn a profit, or retain as investors. It appears they are selling for immediate profit, as the volume of stocks in trade has skyrocketed and the price continues to sag.
    Depending on that price, more or less shares are issued to the "source" each month, but it's estimated that by the time it's over, the number of stocks in circulation will about double what it was before the PIPERs came along. And, if the price drops below $0.1 per share, AXPW pays the PIPER (isn't that a delicious turn of phrase?) a premium in cash on top of that month's issue of new shares... is that about how it's working?

     

    Next question; how rapidly is AXPW burning through that cash? How much of it will they give back if the stock price sags under 0.10? It doesn't appear that they are selling many batteries, so there won't be many profits to offset operating expenses. How long will 9 million last? Now that AXPW, according to TG, is no longer a "research and development" but a full-on "production" company, will they just have to shrink down to skeleton staffing until some demand develops? When will the company be forced to find another "source"? What new and delicious revelations will we learn about alternative capital sources in the next round? Are we gambling that the company can stretch out this financing round until one or another of their prospective lines of business breaks open and starts producing a large flow of battery sales?
    According to the speculation, trains are out, at the rate things are developing. JP has poured cold water on any prospect for a significant volume of battery sales for the trucking industry in 2014. It appears that we're left with power cubes as the pathway to salvation in the short term. If I have been reading correctly, most power cube data has flowed from a single installation that has been performing some form of power scrubbing for the last year or so. In other words, the field testing of that technology is pretty slim, barely ahead of the train and the truck. While there has been fairly little speculation about the potential for stationary applications, one wonders how much more data will be required before utility scale installations could be possible, given the paucity of real-world performance that has been generated by a single large cube installation.
    I may just put my shares in a sock drawer and check in on them 12 months from now...see if AXPW and ePower are even in business at that point. I can't see how lurking around the water cooler has made the least bit of difference to my investment strategy, which was more about hope than analysis anyway. Those small-fry who attended the annual meeting seem pretty strong on the management, but I'd prefer to put my confidence in some real sales...wake me up when the orders start coming in...
    21 Dec 2013, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    >>And, if the price drops below $0.1 per share, AXPW pays the PIPER (isn't that a delicious turn of phrase?) a premium in cash on top of that month's issue of new shares... <<

     

    @Nathan. Not quite. If it drops below $0.1 the PIPERS can demand the payment entirely in cash, plus an additional 25%. So it would not be shares plus cash. Some here argue that the PIPERS for some unknown reason would not choose to enforce this provision with such a generous cash bonus. Personally, I believe they are salivating at the prospect for such a lucrative payday. I also believe this is the greatest near-term risk to Axion, as the loss of much needed cash would put them in a position of needing to raise capital much sooner.

     

    23 Dec 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    the later we are in the pipe deal, the more likely they are to push for cash default. early on it is safer just to unload into the market and that's exactly what they've benn doing.
    23 Dec 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    If the PIPErs have any hand in forcing either a price or a volume failure they run an immense risk of a lawsuit from Axion alleging a breach of the covenant of good faith and fair dealing that the law implies in every contract. It is one of the few areas of contract law that specifically provides for an award of punitive damages. Since the PIPErs have accounted for the substantial bulk of sell side volume for several months any attempt to force the issue could land them in a world of hurt and require disclosure of every transaction.
    23 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Matthieu, I agree and it appears we just hit later. We are 1.5 months into the wizard's latest projection that "significant" sales won't be six months out. However, the pipers and Mr. Market are pulling back the curtain. What's behind it?

     

    Instead of creatively allowing some positive info to leak into the mkt through the grant application, they redact all material portions.

     

    What happens over the next three months is anyone's guess, but without something more than what lame excuses, I can't imagine it will be good.
    26 Dec 2013, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Do not arouse the wrath of the great and powerful Granville. I said come back tomorrow, tomorrow, tom.....

     

    http://bit.ly/OpxIeh
    26 Dec 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Nathan

     

    Thank you. Well thought thru

     

    On Pipes - YES

     

    Cash is in hand to at least early next Fall. This would be extended by further sources of cash - sales - perhaps other agreements of substance

     

    Of perhaps greatest importance is we may now have a CFO who knows what he is doing. Any decent CFO with time will protect the owners and find the money needed to reach a companies potential

     

    Only problem with the sock idea - there might be an announcement of significance in the interim that you might want to take advantage of. Easy answer is to be sure you are on AXPW email list for news and cash at the ready to act

     

    Lastly the pipers are going to run out of stock to sell or start to maintain their positions by Spring. Once their sales stop we should see a lift in the stock from reduced sell pressure. Cash in hand might be a useful asset as the pipers are holding or exhausted

     

    Again thank you for your succinct thoughts
    22 Dec 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    "Of perhaps greatest importance is we may now have a CFO who knows what he is doing. Any decent CFO with time will protect the owners and find the money needed to reach a companies potential"

     

    There's probably no greater source of frustration for me than hearing virtually NOTHING from top management on what they're doing to assure financial stability for Axion, in the midst of many uncertain variables. Many of us were confident this past spring that strategic partner talks were either coming to fruition, or some kind of low-ball (upper .20's or so) stock issuance would occur instead. Now, there's the possibility Axion may have to repay the PIPERs in cash instead of shares.

     

    If this becomes the case, ISTM new funding could possibly become necessary before the fall of 2014. RA recently mentioned CFOs are normally focused on accounting, not raising necessary capital to fund future operations. It seems this was the case in the past (when they felt compelled to accept the PIPE deal) and I haven't heard a peep from top management that anything has changed. They simply don't address the big elephant in the room when doing their cc's. --- I wish I was as optimistic as you sound about a change of tenor with our new CFO.

     

    Nathan --- Thanks for your thoughts. Interesting to get perspectives from somebody who doesn't follow things as closely as most of us do.
    22 Dec 2013, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Lord save us again if it is TG's exclusive task to raise capital as he sees fit. He certainly NEEDS guidance this time, so as not to give away what's left of the company for crumbs!

     

    I am upset by his broken promises this year to say the least, but a voice within tells me we are not far away from some real pleasant news, so I am sticking around for a bit. Only if we start seeing things materialize will I regain the confidence I had in him when I first invested.
    22 Dec 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    WiO, I share your frustration over the plumbers. I think it's a mistake to assume our former or present CFOs are/were incompetent. Sometimes things arrange themselves in very unfriendly environments. I suspect our plumbers arrived at a time of dire economic circumstances.

     

    I'm not sure I've ever heard a management discuss publicly what they are doing about re-financing unless they already have an acceptable financial plan in place upon which they are trying to improve. Also note that according to the plumbers agreement, we cannot enter into another agreement more favorable to anyone but them. I suspect we'll not hear a whisper until the plumbers are fully put to bed. So maybe silence until late April? Justaguess.
    22 Dec 2013, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your thoughts VW. To clarify, I don't need specifics, I would just like to hear a few words that would indicate they're actively (and continually) engaged in securing needed capital. Hearing nothing at all is what makes me nervous.

     

    On another topic, I've actually had a question on my mind for you regarding NS. Is there any point at which they might feel an embarrassment for going past their own deadline in rolling out the 999?
    22 Dec 2013, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (649) | Send Message
     
    WiO, I am confident NS would be nonplussed if they miss the year-end deadline. And there would be some behind-closed-doors body grinding going on. Threats, etc. What would really cause the discomfort however would be a repeat of the first attempt with bugle calls, politicians, etc. They will go to extraordinary lengths to make sure they had the answers before a second attempt.

     

    Never have I been so attached to or curious about an NS project. Maybe most amazing to me is that I have not been making inquiries for my own satisfaction. But the truth is I haven't a clue what the story is with NS999 in particular nor the TEMLO initiative in general. I have reservations over the alleged TEMLO classes in McDonough. The Training Center is where real hardware is used. If the classes are supposed to be on simulators, they can be held anywhere because NS has several. Simulator training goes on in many locations. So if training is being done at the Center, what units are they running? I'm puzzled by that one.

     

    All that said, I am satisfied to the soles of my feet that testing is going on, certainly in Roanoke and maybe Alexandria and Chattanooga also. I believe things are moving forward and have a strong suspicion they are progressing beyond simply NS999 or locomotives in general. No evidence, just suspicious certainty that comes with working with those decision makers for so a full career.

     

    No matter the case, I am playing my piano of only one note. We have their endorsement and I am positive and have had that idea reinforced many times over the past year, that the NS endorsement has caught the attention of the entire industry.

     

    It sure would be nice to see some wallets opening wide right now. I'm in for the duration, but my hair is getting increasingly gray. And thin. :>)

     

    Ironic that I am so excited about NS competitors . . . . . trucks in the shape of ePower, yes?
    23 Dec 2013, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    VW, Good FAIR competition makes one stronger. To bad the feds don't always recognize that.
    23 Dec 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    With the longest night behind us (21st), may Axion sales grow with the lengthening hours of light.
    22 Dec 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    When I first posted this I thought that this company might be somehow looking to compete with NSC for their road locomotive. I now think that it is more likely that they are complementary to NSC's efforts in this area. The advancements in their motor control technology SiC and GaN would go a long way in making the systems considerably more efficient.

     

    Perhaps this is where the delay resides?

     

    Anyway, another WAG. Timing fits as well.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/18ClBCj

     

    http://bit.ly/Jih8MN
    22 Dec 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... I suppose anything is possible. The NS999 has most likely missed the largest commercialization opportunity for specific switcher builds in a century. There doesn't seem to be any hurry to demonstrate the battery technology. That makes most of any demand internal to Norfolk Southern which makes experimentation test bedding as likely as any other reason for it to exist. Upgrading the prime movers to the latest & greatest (even experimental) could be a likely as anything. I tend to doubt is because of a lack of historical data to do comparisons to but who knows.
    22 Dec 2013, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    DRich, What's your feeling on NSC having the OTR unit take the lead on development at this time?

     

    Also, If NSC still developed a NS-999 switcher platform, even after missing the window you have discussed, is it not possible that they could find a market for their existing units as they transitioned to the new more efficient units? The fuel savings are pretty compelling no?
    22 Dec 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... The OTR is far more important to the system. Anything that improves the mainline is on the list. I have felt that losing Mr. Thelen to a signals guy pushed the battery power down the list of things to do. Upgrading the overall system to state-of-the-art electronic control & upgrading the rails will yield more operational savings than just fuel. It would be important to find out for sure if batteries were the way to go eventually on the fuel savings front but more efficient diesel engines & hedging fuel should be enough savings for now. At least until the electronics are done so R&D will continue. The BP4 should still serve a purpose and might even be Norfolk's solution to specific yards because they are dragging their feet on building their own genset fleet. Someday we will know.

     

    If the BP4 is tested & proves a success there will be a market for it. One that will grow over time. I just don't see it starting with a big bang like it would if success had happened in 2009 or 2012. Switchers are just not that important to the Tier 1's as they are to the Short Lines (where road switchers reign) or the terminal, mill operations.

     

    To me the supreme usefulness of the BP4 is the proof the technology works. How & why it sits is a mystery and that is the bare-bones of my feelings on the subject.
    22 Dec 2013, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Thanks for your thoughts.

     

    It does bring up one question though. It would be interesting to know how independent the shops are in steering some of their resources into programs that are of self interest. I mean certainly the needs of NSC need to be met but can they flex their budget to develop certain technologies that might be good for their work load as long as it, with internal controls, shows a path to profitability for the shops? I say this in light of your comments concerning the usefulness of the NS 999 concept to other entities outside of NSC. It would be interesting to know.
    23 Dec 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    All caught up at last.

     

    12/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 80, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 490906, AvTrSz: 6136
    Min. Pr: 0.1011, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1036
    # Buys, Shares: 16 117765, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1054
    # Sells, Shares: 63 371541, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1030
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 1600, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1025
    Buy:Sell 1:3.15 (24.0% "buys"), DlyShts 7800 (01.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.10%

     

    There's a combination of my experimental stuff that I think strongly suggests a continued near-term downward price trend. On my charts, the combination of volume, short sales percentage, buy percentage averages, and trade size averages make me think this is the case.

     

    Most concerning are behaviors of daily short sales percentage averages and buy percentage averages.

     

    ... I now reprise what I mentioned some time back: my examination of past trends shows that when we re-visited past all-time lows we surpassed the old mark.

     

    ... The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0955 vs. $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988 and $0.0990 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0881 vs. $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968, $0.0982 and $0.0978 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    My long-term descending resistance is still in play. The day's range topped, AFAICT, right at the line, making it $0.107 today and descending. So we traded completely below it but for one $0.107 25K trade at 12:22.

     

    My medium-term descending support, ~$0.105 now, is officially “busted” with two consecutive closes below. I had been hoping this would hold.

     

    The only TA support point, made with new all-time lows 10/8-10/10, has not been tested since it was made. With the PIPErs in play and the 85% pricing to them going on, the stuff discussed above about the long-term pattern of always surpassing prior all-time lows when re-visited, my experimental charts, ... I really don't expect that $0.10 to hold.

     

    The usual additional detail and thoughts are in the blog here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    22 Dec 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. I agree.
    23 Dec 2013, 07:17 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    8 Things to Expect on Tomorrow's Trucks
    http://bit.ly/1kxBn82
    22 Dec 2013, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >DLane ... If I'm thinking this through correctly, the bulk of those performance gains coming soon will come from aerodynamics as much or more so than engine efficiency and/or hybridization. The improvements don't seem to be much different from ePower's projections. I wonder how long it will be before any of these "future" trucks will be available in the glider market
    23 Dec 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    D Lane, thanks for the link. The following introduction makes me wonder what kind of implications (if any) this may have for ePower.

     

    "More than half the fleets in TMC’s survey think we’ll see trucks achieving better than 9 mpg – a feat already being achieved by some fleets. Mike Jeffress, vice president of maintenance at Maverick Transportation, would like to see 10- to 15-mpg tractors. That’s not out of the realm of possibility.

     

    Peterbilt Chief Engineer Landon Sproull says its first-generation SuperTruck concept tractor-trailer achieved nearly 10 mpg. He expects even better performance out of the second-generation truck, which should be ready in the first quarter of 2014."
    23 Dec 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    We don't harbor any illusions that ePower is developing a sliver bullet drivetrain technology that will dominate heavy trucking because the industry is a global giant with more than enough opportunity to support many successful solutions. Our big hope is that ePower will offer one of the most cost-effective solutions because I'm a firm believer that economics matter. If ePower can earn a modest but credible share of a massive market I'll be a very happy camper.
    23 Dec 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Wayne IO, This article lacks the detail required to determine what the implications of the data points being thrown about are. It smells like much of the fluff pieces that permeate the energy efficiency sector. Lot's of fine cherry picked data points without the gory details that make you cringe. You know, those insignificant details like cost.
    23 Dec 2013, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    WiO: ePower's solution is additive to gains, regardless of aero improvements.

     

    If enough aero gains are achieved, the ePower solution can run at lower power, if so desired.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Dec 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >iindelco ... So I asked: What is the price of a new 2014 Peterbuilt 579 (the model series of the Super Truck)? Once the shock of considering such a thing was absorbed, the debate seemed to settle into a range of $185k to $250k. The high guess was $290k. No one knew for sure because of all the different configurations available and no one present could get their minds around actually purchasing a brand new truck from the OEM dealer.

     

    After that cackle-fest settled down, the consensus seemed to be pretty sure that the new Super Truck, sans trailer, would probably add about $80k. The hope around the table was to be able to pick one up in the aftermarket by 2020. A couple hoped to drive one in the next several years. Truth is there is no way to nail down the actual price of a Class 8 Heavy until one is ready to deal.

     

    From my talking to the few actual truckers I come in contact with I'd think that ePower has at least 5 years (determined on hoped for performance) of clear sailing for marketing before all those "future" trucks make a huge impact. During that timeframe and beyond is worth Jay & John daydreaming about.
    23 Dec 2013, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't HTL have the right view that most of the aerodynamic and engine efficiency gains will be additive to the ePower system gains?
    23 Dec 2013, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney ... I would think so but I also don't see any of the OEM's feeding their highest tech model lines into the secondary "Glider" market until they have some ROI under their belt. I don't know that for a fact because I know very little about the workings of the trucking sales & service business.
    23 Dec 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Not all because some of what is occurring in this program is part of what ePower is doing. Predominantly engine downsizing. But there are many other things that will be complementary. Some coming soon for ePower and some not until they are part of a build cycle that ePower can contribute to.

     

    But it's all far off stuff as DRich has indicated, so we will have flown or face planted based on riding ePowers coat tails long before this is of any significance.
    23 Dec 2013, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    A reader sent me this link to a new IEEE Spectrum blog that includes a hat tip for suggesting that something didn't smell right at Envia in May of last year.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fUENPk
    23 Dec 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    "...we stand by our previous warning that any supposedly revolutionary development in storage technology should be treated with extreme caution."

     

    A few months of trucks in the hands of end users may do wonders for investor skepticism.
    23 Dec 2013, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, IMO, stories like these only confirm Edison's words and in the process harm Axion''s already tarnished standing. If you lie in an industry with dogs, unless you make good on your projections, you get fleas.

     

    Clearly there is information that could potentially turn the tide, the question is whether TG is a skilled enough CEO to figure out how to play both sides: the big boys and the markets. At this time, I will withhold judgment on the big boys bc there is no doubt he knows the issues there better than me. On the other hand, I don't have to speak for the markets b/c they speak for themselves.

     

    Will that change this upcoming year?
    23 Dec 2013, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc made a statement recently to the effect that a lot of stock buying and selling is due more to sentiment than to stock fundamentals. Recent posts here seem to re-enforce that thought. This is two days before Christmas. I would say that is historically a relatively slow time for Wall Street and business in general. Obviously, I don't know what is going to happen to AXPW in the short and near term...otherwise I'd be buying or selling like mad! This is what I am relatively certain of. NSC stated in JUST the past few months that they are a partner of Axion and their electric engine will be running by the end of the year. For all we know it IS running right now! If not, I still believe that it WILL be running in the near future or they wouldn't have made the statement. Also, again, I don't think it would be as beneficial for Axion if TODAY NSC made the announcement that the 999 (or whatever engine) has been successfully operated for the past three months...rather, I would like to hear this news sometime after the first of the year so as to achieve maximum market impact. As for BMW, it has been put on the backburner, but we have meetings with them every two weeks, and were told that a larger than normal meeting took place after Thanksgiving. That is NOT BAD news! Another Car company ( or two or three?) has been in discussions with Axion. Again, this is not a bad thing! E-power is rolling out their new truck for road testing this week...or maybe next week. Again, not a bad thing. We sold a PowerCube...more sales of SOME kind are in the funnel. Not a bad thing. Yeah, the PIPE guys are around...and yeah, they may be messing with our heads, directly or indirectly. Are they trying to shake out weak hands? In summary, I feel there are many more positives in this company than negatives. PIPErs are getting to be (from my Viet Nam days) SHORT...meaning they are not going to be around too much longer! I think their major impact has already been felt. Any announcement of new sales, news about a Tier one battery company for BMW, an announcement about NSC, would be dramatic. I think thotdoc is right, the sentiment is pushing this stock right now. How many lurkers are on this board that are primed to buy, but the sentiment is holding them back? Personally, I think quite a few. I will continue to buy as funds permit.
    23 Dec 2013, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, The stock is in bad shape, but the company has better prospects than ever. The supply and demand of the stock is driven by large sellers that make their money independent of the price and buyers that largely already have significant positions and need to decide when this product will begin to sell commercially.
    23 Dec 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1415) | Send Message
     
    I agree that sentiment is shifting to the better. Sentiment is the valence (positive or negative) of the summed emotional experience of the crowd that is emotionally involved with any object or situation. The most concrete example is a lynch mob.

     

    A change in sentiment is not often based on a singular news item, or even several news items. That is why I don't believe that any one news Item, other than one that immediately creates sustaining profitability for Axion will create the sustaining rise in prices we all wish for. A news item can increase share price...which then languishes in time. Again, please look at the hydrogen and fuel cell companies for case studies that apply to AXPW.

     

    JP's graph of the stages of stock prices, I believe--without taking the time to find it and examine it-- is a graph of sentiment:
    From emotional responses to hype and "OMG, this will change the world and I need to get in now" on the left,
    To no way and I need to get out of this stock (ending at the depressed pps in the middle)
    To things seem to be changing (right of middle and beginning to trend higher).
    To it's a good/great company, I need to get in!!! (rising on the right).

     

    There is also sentiment based on sector. IMO, sentiment towards lead acid is changing for the plus.

     

    That all said, as we are now a sales based, rather than a research based company, IMO the little wins will begin to add up and change sentiment toward the company. That is what is happening now...I hope, I hope, I hope!

     

    What goes up, goes up too far...and what goes down goes down too far. If we are still here when sector and company sentiment is positive we will all do very well.

     

    If I don't respond again, I wish for each one of you a wonderful Christmas Holiday surrounded by people you love and who love you.
    23 Dec 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Hi thotdoc,
    Lynch mob is the best example I have heard to describe sentiment (or crowd psychology/emotion). I also wish you and yours, as well as everyone on this board a Merry Christmas, or other holiday if you are so inclined.
    23 Dec 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    After the other white meat.

     

    Calif. battery plant to reduce arsenic health risk.

     

    "A Nov. 22 inspection found that smokestack emissions of arsenic had increased at Quemetco, Inc. The plant in the San Gabriel Valley smelts lead from old batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/1e62y57
    23 Dec 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    WHY THE PIPErs CAN'T FORCE A FAILURE.

     

    It just dawned on me that I've never explained why the PIPErs can't force Axion into a position where it must make a cash payment.

     

    In American law, every contract includes an implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. Wikipedia describes it as follows:

     

    "In contract law, the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing is a general presumption that the parties to a contract will deal with each other honestly, fairly, and in good faith, so as to not destroy the right of the other party or parties to receive the benefits of the contract. It is implied in every contract in order to reinforce the express covenants or promises of the contract. A lawsuit (or a cause of action) based upon the breach of the covenant may arise when one party to the contract attempts to claim the benefit of a technical excuse for breaching the contract, or when he or she uses specific contractual terms in isolation in order to refuse to perform his or her contractual obligations, despite the general circumstances and understandings between the parties."

     

    If the PIPErs sell shares at a rate that drives the price below $0.10 per share, it will be a breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing.

     

    If the PIPErs withhold shares from the market when there is adequate demand, it will be a breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing.

     

    A breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing is one of the few areas of contract law that allows a successful plaintiff to recover punitive damages.

     

    As near as I can tell the PIPErs have represented the overwhelming bulk of the sell-side volume for several months. If their selling forces the price below $0.10 or holds it below $0.10, they have a serious problem. The same is true if they arbitrarily withhold shares from the market when there is buy-side demand above the price failure point.
    23 Dec 2013, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I thought you, maybe others, had made this point clearly before. I knew this to be the case and I must have this understanding from reading someone else. I'm about as ignorant of contract law as anyone could be.

     

    Sadly, I can't see this knowledge holding people back from continued hand-wringing.
    23 Dec 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    John: you had mentioned it once or twice, but it likely got buried in other comment threads.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Dec 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    >DRich . . . agreed. But, -- I think -- 'hand-wringing' is just self-abuse. It is a choice, not a requirement. I think many here have made that point at sometime or another 'round here. We'd all like to believe that our own ideas would make the world a better place . . . that we have some 'control' over that which isn't in our control at all.

     

    JP (and others) have said as much, in attempts to reassure those prone to 'hand-wringing'. Sadly, I think we all can fall back into the habit when we dwell too long gazing upon an economic landscape that shows such vast potential but has been slow to realize it.

     

    In the end, I see only two alternatives: the first is to get off the cliff from which we've been doing that gazing . . . and, for some, that means selling out and taking their financial lumps. The second is to wait and see. Patience, it seems, is an extraordinary virtue among financial risk-takers . . . but, from my understanding, one that dwells solidly in almost all of those who make it 'big' over the long-run.

     

    Just my random thoughts while having a hot-toddy after clearing more snow from my absurdly long drive-way (why did I decide to build my house in the *middle* of the wooded lot . . .?).
    23 Dec 2013, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Agreed but I don't think this level of detail was shared as to the underlying reason why there would be legal violations by the PIPErs in doing so.
    23 Dec 2013, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    <<If the PIPErs withhold shares from the market ...>>

     

    This strikes me as not a breach since it is inaction -- strange to hold one accountable for his inactions rather than his actions, unless the contract were to stipulate said actions. Further, it's plausible that a PIPE investor not even be following the market that closely due to grave illness, new job, divorce, or a host of personal reasons.

     

    I'd be amazed if the law found an investor culpable for not supplying his shares to the market. I'm not one of those who are derisive of 'big nanny government', but if a court ever told me I didn't sell enough of my shares to make the market happy, then for the first time I'd be inclined to think we're tipping the scales toward a shocking invasiveness.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    In this particular case, the PIPErs drove the price down to a level where they accounted all or substantially all of the sell-side activity and they've kept the price at distressed levels for several months. Under those particular circumstances I believe an abrupt change in behavior that eliminated sell-side activity and drove trading volumes to default levels would be actionable under any number of theories, including the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing. Without several months of very consistent behavior, I can't imagine a court getting involved over mere inaction. Given the history we've seen over the last few months, an abrupt change in behavior would be manipulative in the extreme.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: "strange to hold one accountable for his inactions rather than his actions"

     

    Obamacare!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    HTL> I'm neither for or against ACA at this point. I'll judge it in time. Whether it is a good solution is debatable but affordable care certainly is a big problem. You're right in implying that it is invasive of rights.

     

    For some historical perspective though, Social Security has similarities. It is mandatory but the difference is they take it out of your paycheck so no action needed on your part. But when it was enacted Social Security was a radical idea that infringed on freedoms. There was a big hue and cry. Decades later it turned out to be one of the most popular federal programs of all time. Now there is only a hue and cry when somebody proposes to trim its benefits. Plus it has virtually always run a surplus.
    25 Dec 2013, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    "Plus it has virtually always run a surplus."
    You must mean Before it was looted by our elected officials.
    26 Dec 2013, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: I mentioned for only one reason: the topic was the penalty for not doing something, of which the act is a recent example.

     

    I have read the SCOTUS dissenting opinion in full so that I might understand how Blackburn reached his conclusions.

     

    Beyond that, no comment.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Dec 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    John said, "... PIPErs can't force Axion into a position where it must make a cash payment." Unless the word force is defined in an unusual way this is not true and the implied good faith requirement should not give us any comfort.

     

    It is true that all contracts require good faith and that some violations of these conditions can allow punitive (and other damages) even if they are not allowed in the contract. This applies only in very exceptional cases, for example if the PIPErs fraudulently entered into the contract. If the agreement forbids the PIPERs to coordinate their buying and selling and they planned PRIOR to entering into the contract that they would coordinate for the purpose of driving the price below $0.10 and taking the cash payments, they would open themselves to unlimited damages. This would be difficult to prove and would essentially require an email from the PIPERs saying, "Let's enter into this contract with the intent to violate the terms." If the PIPERs coordinate AFTER entering into the contract this would be breach of contract and they would not legally be able to get the cash payments, though getting the extra damages to apply in this case would be much more difficult. Even in this case it would be practically very difficult for Axion (or us) to enforce this and would require high levels of proof.

     

    This contract specifically contemplates that the PIPERs will be able to both sell and hold onto their stock and get cash payments if the market conditions don't allow them enough liquidity (the volume and price requirements). So to say that because they have been doing most of the selling and this has caused the price to go down so they can't enforce the contract is not true. This is the exact condition that the contract anticipates and is not bad faith. Even if they change their selling patterns they are OK because the contract allows them to both hold and sell.

     

    While there may be conditions where the PIPERs would open themselves to unlimited damages, these are very difficult to prove and would require extreme stupidity on the part of the PIPERs and a concerted effort to actually enforce. The basic case where the PIPERs enforce the provisions of the contract is fine for them.
    26 Dec 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I disagree with your analysis, but think neither of us possesses enough factual information to reach a definitive conclusion.
    26 Dec 2013, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    I doubt the PIPErs are in cohorts. Axion goes to Maxim for money. Maxim publishes the opportunity of convertible 8% bonds in certain investing circles. Four or five hedge funds invest. I don't see a likelihood of all the funds being cozy, but a couple might be.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    RA - these are the same funds (except for one) that together participated in the A123 death spiral. Difference is, A123 was already dead due to manufacturing problem.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> Interesting. Maybe it's a bunch of guys who love to hate batteries. Or maybe hate to love batteries which is similar, I think.

     

    Was their stake in A123 also convertible to shares at A123's option? Did A123 have other debt that killed them?

     

    Axion with no debt and a highly marketable product strikes me as a different situation.
    26 Dec 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    RA - I looked at the funds shortly after the deal. They were in some of the Axion paperwork. I cross referenced them and the only mention that I could find for 4 of 5 was the A123 deal. If I am not mistaken, it was convertible at an 85% discount to market. I am still mad at myself for allowing myself to be talked out of selling after that discovery.

     

    Unfortunately, a highly marketable product remains to be seen, but with no debt, it also doesn't make sense for me to sell at this point.

     

    Who knows maybe TG will even get a wild hair and buy a share or two.
    26 Dec 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> They got 15% of off market or 85% off?
    26 Dec 2013, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Something I just noticed -- Axion's market cap may be at an all time low. Does anybody know? If you use 210 million shares as a fully diluted figure then the market is valuing the company at just $20.0 million right now. Wow.
    26 Dec 2013, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    As I recall it was approximately 15%
    26 Dec 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Same 15% discount that Axion PIPErs got then. The way you worded it I thought the discount was 85% which would just cream the shareholders.
    27 Dec 2013, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Axion has never had a big market cap, but the current estimate of $20 million is as low as I've ever seen it. It makes no sense with a cumulative investment in the $100 million range, but strange things happen in the valley of death.
    27 Dec 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    RA - you're correct it was a typo. Still trying to get used to typing on a tablet.
    27 Dec 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    They're a pain to type on, but they sure can be fun – particularly when you learn how to use Siri to take dictation.
    27 Dec 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >obieephyhm ... Well, I certainly not guiltless when it comes to bouts of obsessing in a wallow of depression when it comes to this particular company.
    23 Dec 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    If I understand things correctly.... the PIPErs have only about three more months to make mischief. Then they are essentially out of the picture (unless and until their warrants become exerciseable, *and of course they choose to exercise them*) But then again the warrants only become relevant at substantially higher prices from here, so not quite so much of a worry. Then, after the PIPErs make their gracious exit, we've got around six months of a more normal market to operate in (all with an eye of course to needed financing by the end of the year). During all this time, NSC, ePower, Multilink, and Powercube campaigns should continue to evolve and progress.

     

    Which should add to remaining health.

     

    Yeah, this is truly the valley of the shadow of death. But we've withstood now roughly six months of the worst these PIPErs could dish out. With the definite end to them now in sight, can the next three really be all that bad?
    23 Dec 2013, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2235) | Send Message
     
    Call me the Grinch, but I don't see a damn thing to be encouraged about at Axion. I have been hoping forever that something would develop that would allow me to buy AXPW again after getting out .32 last February. Someone tell me why in the world would anyone have any faith in TG? Could someone enlighten me what Vani has done to justify his paycheck? I might be willing to entertain some bets that Axion won't exist except in lawsuits this time next year.

     

    If I went into a meeting with my former employers and I was running Axion with TG's record of "nothing to see here" I guarantee you the floor would fall out from under me. I don't see anything about the "good faith" issue regarding the PIPERS that would provide me any comfort. When the only thing left is lawyers arguing in a room the stock will be in the tank anyway.
    23 Dec 2013, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    "Call me the Grinch"

     

    Grinch! --- lol

     

    I have to say I'm much more in line with 48's optimistic scenario, but I agree with you re: the "good faith" issue. Provides me no assurances whatsoever.

     

    P.S. Thanks to whoever painted the tape at the end with a 500 share purchase. Any little thing to help out during this valley of the shadow of death is appreciated!
    23 Dec 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Gee bangwhiz, are you trying to tank the stock? :)
    snark....
    23 Dec 2013, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I just got a note from Jay that said "We received our fuel lines today and finished installing the fuel system and air lines for the sleeper truck. The truck is completed and ready to start. When we went to start the truck a few minutes ago, we had a problem with the original truck ignition wiring interfacing with the Cummins engine. This will most likely take a few hours of chasing wires to determine the problem. Looks like it will be tomorrow before we get the truck running."

     

    It looks like Santa doesn't want to come early for ePower, which is fine with me as long as he comes.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP. Even though it is bad news, it lets us know why there is a delay. It is so refreshing to get detailed info from the potential customer.

     

    I wish each of you a merry Christmas as we celebrate the gift of God's Son.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    It's not bad news at all veal, it's just another example of the trivial problems and delays that arise in every development project. I'm just grateful we're not having to do something really challenging like developing entirely new manufacturing processes for an entirely new battery technology. This stuff is a walk in the park.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    Mr John P.

     

    Gracias por la información.

     

    Feliz día-Carlos
    23 Dec 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update John. The little things that slow down the progress on the real meat and potatoes portion of EVERY program. Sure as a rouge gust of wind when you're trying to start a little fire to cook your food after a long day of hiking in the great outdoors.
    23 Dec 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    Have you heard if the ePower boys were successful today in getting the Cummins to crank up?
    24 Dec 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >RBrun357 ... Here is the latest from Mr. Petersen.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Dec 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Oops, please disregard my post as I just got caught up and saw JPs post further down.
    24 Dec 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DRich
    24 Dec 2013, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3297) | Send Message
     
    This year sure hasn't worked out like I thought. Nor the one before that, neither. And I've got permanent scars. All my endurance of these past couple of years has proven to be grave personal folly yes. As a matter of fact, it's helped poison my life beyond my own willingness to really tell. But still, crazy as it may be, or turn out to be, I nevertheless persist in these activities. Like everyone, I will be most glad to see the end of the PIPErs. And though I know their remaining time is now more limited and will at long last run short, encouraged is not really what I would call myself. Merely enduring. And humbled. Knowing how much I don't know. But also knowing that this story is not over. That there is a place in this world for our device. So for good or ill, I remain girded (enough) to endure further...

     

    Though that too may be beaten out of me yet.
    23 Dec 2013, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    86,

     

    I think most of all will be relieved to see pipers go, but again nothing guarantees that worse creditors won't be showing up at the door, if we need further capital and no decent alternative is out there for us!

     

    One motto I find very helpful to put the current situation in perspective is: "It could be a lot worse" :)
    24 Dec 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Personally I think if the pipers were going to drive the stock below
    10 cents, it would have already happened.
    They have skirted above it a number of times and did so again today.
    Yet it's not happened. I think that's the best argument.
    Question:
    How many days does it have to continue for you personally to be convinced? (At least as convinced as you can be until it's over.)
    23 Dec 2013, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    The turkey was fed and sheltered for 1000 consecutive days, but this did not mean that the butcher loved him. His logic would have been equally sound, how many more days / proofs does one need?

     

    I think one should be prepared for any eventuality / opportunity and should stop throwing slime balls around, blaming the CEO, JP, Vani and who knows who else!

     

    Step a bit back and take a deep breath. Our pain is nothing compared to that of those who work hard at Axion for more than a decade, have built an extraordinary thing, do not get the recognition and are not sure if / when things will really work out. (we have invested some % of our portfolio and just wait and moan on a message board - those guys at Axion gave 10 years of their life, health, other opportunities, family time etc. - it's not even funny to compare)
    24 Dec 2013, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    As usual, as soon as someone says, "if the pipers were going to drive the stock below 10 cents, it would have already happened", down it goes.

     

    If this stock was valued "rationally" it would not be at this price. So, when irrationality rules, all bets are off on price.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Today was a non-event under the contracts because the markets weren't open for at least 4.5 hours. So the price hasn't been driven below $0.10. It could happen, but it hasn't happened yet.
    24 Dec 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    12/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up later).
    # Trds: 95, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 29500, Vol: 536636, AvTrSz: 5649
    Min. Pr: 0.1008, Max Pr: 0.1049, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1022
    # Buys, Shares: 23 171750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1027
    # Sells, Shares: 72 364886, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1020
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.12 (32.0% "buys"), DlyShts 118000 (21.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.34%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0949 vs. $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984 and $0.0988 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0869 vs. $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968 and $0.0982 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    My pessimism from yesterday continues as all the numbers relating to price continue to deteriorate.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -0.30%, -1.96%, -1.33% -1.33%, 9.32% and 1412.82% respectively.

     

    The usual additional details and thoughts will be available in the blog when I update it later.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Huh? Above EOD post is for 12/23.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    There seems to be a pre-market trade of 1,970,622 shares at $0.1022!

     

    A block trade accumulated over time and negotiated?

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: This can't show on FINRA daily short sales data because out-of-hours trades don't show on the "tape".
    24 Dec 2013, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    I like how the bid offer suddenly changes to the ask w/ no shares changing hands. Pulling offers based on computer or network speed advantage is quite illegal. :(
    24 Dec 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    It would be a little reckless to buy twice the days volume on non-public information. It may be a negotiated trade from a piper to a piper to raise cash faster.
    24 Dec 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... Could be Santa loading up! Coal is so much more expensive & harder to find these days.

     

    Merry Christmas to all and to all a better tape in the New Year.
    24 Dec 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Unfortunately it's not illegal, unless they've *recently* changed it. It's so bad that it's common knowledge that big trade companies, HFT traders and quants, pay extra fees for co-location to gain micro-second advantages.

     

    I watch several stocks all day long that show the bots reperatedly inserting and canceling bids and asks until they get a stabilizing signal of some kind and then it stops.

     

    There is condition that I know they have been considering, which I forget the name of ATM, where they insert thousands of trades and immediately cancel. But I don't know if they've outlawed that yet.

     

    Nanex has done some very good work looking at several of these conditions and the SEC site now has something on some of it - I forget who posted the link.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Yeah, along with a *lot* of early trades, far above normal, with much larger sizes, even before it dropped below $0.10, we had another 460K block added into someone's bag.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: and another 200000 block.
    24 Dec 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Italy has introduced a financial transaction tax per trade to slow down the HFT. Introducing a similar tax in the US would instantly crush them!
    24 Dec 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >H.T.Love ... If this were anything like a real trading stock, I'd think that this is a capitulation bottom.

     

    In reality, I think that today probably means the PIPE "investors" are going to take a vacation next week and many others are just throwing this "bad" idea out for the loss to close their books.
    24 Dec 2013, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    DRich: +1.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    HTL et al,

     

    Regards the large blocks trading today: I have a theory which I open to any and all scrutiny that end-of-year some different trading patterns emerge. There is of course considerable tax loss selling to minimize current year taxes (see my latest article on CHKR if you seek a high yield stock probably tanked by such), countered somewhat by bargain hunters seeking this tax loss overselling.

     

    I think the big blocks traded today could represent the cash from Christmas bonuses or proceeds from tax loss sales getting plowed into AXPW simply because "it's way down". We'll never know for sure who's buying but it's fun speculation, and there is mine.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: the informal survey from a few concentrators back suggested a very low ratio of tax-loss selling.

     

    Of course, like you say, we'll never know if that is representative or not, but it's something to throw into the mix.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    HTL> True, but the survey may not be representative of larger holders responsible for dumping the big blocks today. I think that more AXPW owners probably do not follow the concentrators than those who do. Any survey respondents thus were likely to be highly attuned to the business developments and unlikely to sell in the light of great prospects.
    24 Dec 2013, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    HTL, it thought it was cool that u did the survey, but I would discount the count heavily. Too heavily biased to the bull side--even those planning to sell would either not say so, or worse, because it's in their best interest to have as high a price as possible. No foot shooting.
    24 Dec 2013, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    I was wondering the same thing. Or maybe someone knows something we don't.
    24 Dec 2013, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • steeleydock
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    Merry Christmas, everyone.
    S
    24 Dec 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    As I see it we will have two scenarios that require a further capital raise in the next couple of years. Cash runs out for existing operations (perhaps by year end 2014). Secondly we receive an order that requires an expansion of productive capacity and some CAPEX. The second scenario is every day financing of success and expansion of profitable business. The more troublesome one is where one just requires money because operations are a cash drain. In the run out of cash scenario you better have answers to when that cash flow will turn positive
    Note both scenarios keep the pressure on management to deliver substance. I am confident this is coming
    As for news and announcements - they can get one in trouble. Why bother? What is important is having a good plan - keeping the teams head down on what is important to delivering on that plan - and keeping potential sources of new capital in the know on developments - even if they require further capital.
    A good financial CFO - is well ahead of the curve. They know where they are. They know where the company is headed. Most important they anticipate their cash flow and manage to ensure they:

     

    1. Are constantly building the relationships required long before the capital is needed
    2. Have more than one source of funds
    3. Grow the confidence of the capital sources long before the capital is to be drawn down
    4. Are never caught with their hand out and pants at their ankles
    I continue to believe the new CFO has the background to fully understand and know how to tell the story and build those confidences we will require

     

    I continue to believe the new CFO has the background to fully understand and know how to tell the story and build those confidences we will require

     

    Below a series of questions shared with me by a Halifax consultant that I thought some of you might enjoy

     

    • What accomplishment or achievement are you most proud of in 2013?
    • What risks did you take in 2013?
    • What was most challenging for you in 2013?
    • What was the most loving service or contribution you performed in 2013?
    • Who are the 3 people who have had the greatest positive impact on your life in 2013? (have you told them?)
    • What brought you Joy this year?
    • What was the most meaningful acknowledgement you received in 2013?
    • What was one of your best decisions in 2013?
    • What are your most significant "incompletes" from 2013? (possible areas: home, fitness, finances, etc.)
    • What are you most grateful for in 2013?
    • What would be your theme word or phrase that sums up 2013?

     

    With sincere best wishes for a Merry Xmas and happy holiday season.

     

    2014 for Axionistas will bring rewards - 2015 and beyond further rewards. Patience required.
    24 Dec 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Josh Greene
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    I post very infrequently, but my sense if that we're nearing the bottom. Between the huge volume dump in the morning, the end of tax loss selling, and getting close enough to March that it feels like the PIPE stuff is shaking out, my guess is that we're bottoming here, and although we may bump along, sometime in Feb/March we start trading noticeably higher.
    24 Dec 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    The Wee Willy storage device.

     

    Bill Gates Funds A Smartphone Battery That Runs On Human Urine

     

    http://read.bi/JaVKtx

     

    And with that, Happy holidays to all!
    24 Dec 2013, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    I predict that next year we will sell more "gears".

     

    Updates & Insights on Axion Power International, Inc. (OTCMKTS:AXPW)

     

    "Axion Power International, Inc., based on its patented PbC Technology has been selling its energy storage components. Among the devices, the company’s PbC batteries and gears are used in energy system storage utilities. The company likewise manufactures standard as well as specialty lead-acid batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/1c3ycAz
    24 Dec 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    What's with the gears? Is there something else we don't know? :)
    24 Dec 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Hi Masi,
    The way I read that is the same as "stuff". All the stuff except the batteries that make up a storage unit (racks, electronics, cables, ect.).
    24 Dec 2013, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    Do robots (automated news generators) make typo's? Take out the 's' and gear implies electronics and a rack to keep it all together.
    24 Dec 2013, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    JohnM, I suspect your theory holds the most water. I typically don't post the junk that comes from this automated news service but I just found humor in this one.

     

    Now we're competing against "Cogswell Cogs" and urine batteries. ;-D
    24 Dec 2013, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Now I have a picture of George Jetson downing beer at the tavern so he can recharge his vehicles' urine battery to make it home.
    24 Dec 2013, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, Oh the sacrifices.

     

    But at least it will cut down on the siphoning of fuel. 8-(~
    24 Dec 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I see, as a generic term. Very sophisticated.
    24 Dec 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Awesome news release -- I was just hoping and praying that Axion would diversify into the gears business. Woohoo! I can't wait to see an Axion sprocket on my next Trek bike. LoL

     

    The downside of free widespread information due to the internet is that respectable journalism has withered. Every blogger can have a voice now but there is also a cost to having no gatekeepers and far less advertising money to support the minority of "high DD" journalism that remains.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: Unfortunately there's about a 5-year verification process for new gear suppliers involving lab testing, small fleet and large fleet, followed by need to ink with a tier-1 supplier.

     

    To paraphrase an old saw, the cogs of big automotive grind exceedingly slowly.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Yes it's unbelievable just how much testing it takes to determine whether a gear will handle a task, like being turned by another gear!
    24 Dec 2013, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Supercapacitor / Ultracapacitor Interviews, Strategies, Road Map 2014 - 2025

     

    IDTechEx
    Published Date » 2013-12-16
    No. Of Pages » 236

     

    http://bit.ly/1fYxSVl

     

    Previously:

     

    Electrochemical Double Layer Capacitors: Supercapacitors 2013-2023

     

    IDTechEx
    Published Date » 2013-05-01
    No. Of Pages » 301

     

    http://bit.ly/1fYxSVr

     

    I note by clicking on Table of Contents that East Penn (presumably due to the Ultrabattery?) got a mention in both.

     

    As usual, these things cost $$, but you might pick up something from reading the descriptions and table of contents.

     

    Even older:

     

    "This report concerns Electrochemical Double Layer Capacitors (EDLCs). For brevity, we mainly use the second most popular word for them - supercapacitors. The third most popular term for them - ultracapacitors - is often used in heavy electrical applications. Included in the discussion and forecasts are so-called Asymmetric Electrochemical Double Layer Capacitors (AEDLCs) better known as supercabatteries."

     

    http://on.mktw.net/1fY...

     

    I believe JP has written that the PbC is an Asymmetric Capacitor, but we didn't get a mention in any of these reports. Does the "double layer" term somehow rule us out? Is so, then why did East Penn make it?

     

    Yep ... 3 more "non-disclosures" ...
    24 Dec 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    WTB, The report generator you referenced is the only one that I have seen that uses the term "supercabatteries" as it related to asymmetric capacitors. I have seen them mention Axion in prior news releases related to their offerings.

     

    Supercapacitors Find Applications in Hybrid Vehicles, Smartphones, and Energy Harvesting

     

    "Instead of storing energy using a solid dielectric like conventional capacitors, supercapacitors involve two layers and are often referred to as EDLCs (electrochemical double-layer capacitors). In an EDLC, a physical mechanism generates the electric double layer that performs the function of a dielectric. The charge-discharge cycle is created through an ion absorption layer at the surface of the positive and negative activated carbon electrodes. The distance of the static separation of charge in an EDLC double-layer is extremely small – on the order of 0.3 to 0.8 nm. Figure 1 shows the ion activity for the charge (left) and discharge (right) cycles."

     

    http://bit.ly/19e8gBZ
    24 Dec 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1402) | Send Message
     
    I'm still around! Haven't sold a share and in fact picked up a batch today.

     

    My guess for today is end-year tax selling. Perfect candidate for it. A block sale like that doesn't seem to be how the PIPErs do things, so probably just a fund that called it quits. Rebalancing portfolio before taking off for the holidays.
    24 Dec 2013, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Ranma,

     

    My thinking is with yours. The other compelling reason for a fund to unload before period end is to get the stock completely off their books to 'window dress'. They know some investors will scrutinize end of year reports and holdings and ask "What is this AXPW turkey that is down to ten cents? Why did you buy that? And you paid HOW much?"
    24 Dec 2013, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Reminds me of Special Sits MO.
    24 Dec 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Huge volume today

     

    Price below .10

     

    Pipers just get a fresh batch at about $.09?
    24 Dec 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    For anybody who's worried about a possible "Price Failure" with today's bizarre activity, the calculation is only made on "Trading Days," a term that specifically excludes days when the market isn't open for at least 4.5 hours.

     

    The definitions are on pages 43 and 44.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1753WnN
    24 Dec 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    "Bye, bye Miss American Pie.

     

    Drove my chevy to the levy ....."

     

    The keyword is "drove".

     

    There are many tales of attempts by short sellers to drive stock prices down and like OverStock a few years ago or HerbaLife a few months ago, No News is Good News for shorts.

     

    Axion won't file anything against anyone regardless of who is doing the selling wherever the price goes. because they are supposed to have Good News but have No News.

     

    I'm sorry but the Levy is Dry.

     

    Personally, I hope 10 cents holds because Volume precedes price and there is a hell of a lot of volume today.
    24 Dec 2013, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    levee :)
    24 Dec 2013, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    my bad......thx.

     

    better a levee than a levy on either of us :)
    25 Dec 2013, 02:46 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    +10,000 today

     

    Merry Christmas to me!

     

    And to all a Happy New Year!!!

     

    :)
    24 Dec 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    from the Investopedia
    http://bit.ly/10MRRjW

     

    Buy When There's Blood In The Streets

     

    By Daniel Myers on August 23, 2009

     

    Filed Under: Bear Market, Financial Crisis, Financial Theory, John Templeton, Trading Psychology, Warren Buffett

     

    Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family, is credited with saying that "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

     

    He should know. Rothschild made a fortune buying in the panic that followed the Battle of Waterloo against Napoleon. But that's not the whole story. The original quote is believed to be "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

     

    This is contrarian investing at its heart - the strongly-held belief that the worse things seem in the market, the better the opportunities are for profit.

     

    Most people only want winners in their portfolios, but as Warren Buffett warned, "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus." In other words, if everyone agrees with your investment decision, then it's probably not a good one.
    24 Dec 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Edmund. It's why I added another 100K today. This was a gift. Reminds me of my current multi-bagger I am watching. When it was all gloom and doom I loaded up shares under a nickel. Trading around .40 today with plenty of room to run. When everyone else is grumbling and thinking they can do better than the management in place and you believe in the company, that's the time to buy.
    24 Dec 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    If most of the sells today were from the PIPEers, that would mean they picked up somewhere around $400,000 +.

     

    Just a guesstimate but, does that leave them about 20-25 million shares to go?

     

    Also, MERRY CHRISTMAS to all and your families.
    24 Dec 2013, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Masi: Including the pre-market trade (don't know if we should becauser it might be PIPEr-to-PIPEr), $463,765.09 (rounded).

     

    Sans the pre-market trade, $262,367.52

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    The giant per-mkt trade should not be PIPEr, as that would violate the 15% rule, unless there's some fine print I'm missing.
    24 Dec 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    MrI: What we don't know is if this was satisfying a big buy order in which an MM accumulated for some party. At 42.55% of day's volume, even if it was pipers, in aggregate the PIPErs come in under the aggregate limit of 60%.

     

    My thought is it's more likely an MM that accumulated over some period for a good customer. With sell percentages through yesterday being 81.06%, 75.68% and 68.00% (364,886, 371541 and 844925 shares) with lows being $0.1010, $0.1011 and $0.1008, it seems possible.

     

    Looking at price breakdowns for quantity around and below $0.1022 ...
    Yesterday
    $0.1008-$0.1010: 074200 shrs, 13.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 000.0% buys
    $0.1020-$0.1025: 418200 shrs, 77.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 034.3% buys
    Friday
    $0.1011-$0.1016: 068700 shrs, 13.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1013, 000.0% buys
    $0.1020-$0.1026: 110800 shrs, 22.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1024, 000.0% buys
    Thursday
    $0.1010-$0.1015: 154549 shrs, 14.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 000.0% buys
    $0.1020-$0.1020: 119676 shrs, 11.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 004.2% buys
    $0.1020-$0.1039: 163125 shrs, 15.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1034, 054.5% buys

     

    That gets the quantity pretty close.

     

    They could've been accumulating longer than three days of course.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm just referring to the Agreement provision that says <=15% at any pt in the trading day. Maybe something creative was done by the brokers, like aggregating the PIPEr sells with 40% of that trade's total from another seller. I 'm no trader so I'm just guessing, though.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Oh yeah, I forgot about those pre-market shares. HTL, Does the system you use to figure out all that information you post every day exclude the pre-market/after market trades, or is it just automatically done by some agency?
    24 Dec 2013, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Masi: I manually capture all the data and put it in a spreadsheet. Trying to get Java under my belt (hopefully ready to start baby steps on the program) around March or Feb so I can use the free data feed ETrade has for their customers to capture it all.

     

    I don't reject anything - I just look at it and say, when exceptional conditions are recognized, what's the effect if we remove or alter ...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    MrI" "I'm just referring to the Agreement provision that says <=15% at any pt in the trading day".

     

    ??

     

    IIRC & IIUC, it's "of day's trading volume" or some such.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    No, it's at ANY pt in the trading day.

     

    I'm on my phone, so sorry, you'll have to look at the doc to see that.

     

    One of the bad things about the PIPE deal, and there are many, is the difficulty of Axion's big retail stk base to understand it well.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    HTL> You're starting to learn to code Java from scratch? Is it a tough language?
    24 Dec 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: To me it seems so because ... I'm old? Or because I've very little OOP background? Or just because there's so much to slog through.

     

    In the past I picked up new languages easily, became fluent in five or so.

     

    I think what's holding me up really is that it's not only a language - it's a complete new environment too. So there's a *lot* of reading and note taking.

     

    So it's really just slogging through all the stuff I think. It doesn't help that I can only give a small amount of time intermittently. By the time I get to the end who knows how much of the beginning I will have forgotten.

     

    But that's usually quickly cured by just starting to code for real - the stuff you use a lot gets "built in" and the other stuff gets into the "quick reference" area where you recall where the details are at.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I can relate. Paradigm shift from assembly language and punch cards.

     

    Merry Christmas to all.
    24 Dec 2013, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    MrI: Looks like the "measured at the time of each sale" is the clue.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/19SUX9q

     

    Page 30, (t) Trading in Common Stock, (i)
    ======================...
    Each Buyer hereby agrees, severally and not jointly, for so long as such Buyer owns any Notes, such Buyer shall not (x) maintain a Net Short Position (as defined below) or (y) together with any of its affiliate Buyers, sell shares of Common Stock of the Company received by such Buyer pursuant to a Company Conversion (as defined in the Notes) during any Trading Day in an amount, in the aggregate, exceeding 15% of the composite aggregate share trading volume as reported on Bloomberg (as defined in the Warrant) of the Common Stock measured at the time of each sale of securities during such Trading Day.
    ======================...

     

    Took me a while to find the right d**n exhibit!

     

    Thanks for setting me straight!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    User462699: That's where I started too!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Thanks HTL. Best of luck with the endeavor. If time weren't such a scarce commodity I'd like to learn more than the basic HTML I know to create some website concepts that keep swirling around in my brain. I just know that if I start it will become really time consuming.
    24 Dec 2013, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    4.5 M shares traded today and the price goes DOWN??!!!

     

    Oh, wait, let turn the chart over on my easel.... there, that's better!

     

    Still picked up a few thou more shares anyway... (sigh).

     

    Merry Christmas all. Time to open a few Christmas presents in brown bottles.
    24 Dec 2013, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    Granville pointed out that the Company on November 12th, subsequent to the end of the quarter, announced receipt of its first order for a 'solar integrated," commercial size (600 batteries), renewable energy PowerCUBE(TM). The Cube will support a solar panel array at a commercial customer site and it will be used to buffer power and interact with the building's power needs and with the grid power provider.

     

    I wondered where that CUBE went and how it might be used, whether in some specialty one-off application or in a manner suggestive of a larger market.

     

    There are quite a few of sites spanning multiple industries here in NJ that have installed solar panel farms on their erstwhile manicured lawns. Will 2014 be the Year of the PowerCUBE?
    24 Dec 2013, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >Edmund Metcalfe ... Year of the PowerCube? Maybe! The only thing I know for sure is that 2014 needs to be the year of something ... anything ... except the status quo.
    24 Dec 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    This year saw the first commercial quantity sales and delivery to three potentially large markets: trucks, trains and grid. Any one of them would have sufficed to keep me in.

     

    I like the dropping price (status quo in my experience) because I see real progress in the investment and still have the opportunity to pick up more shares through the valley of death - in fact, put me down for autodeposit.

     

    I buy what I can while I can...
    24 Dec 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1402) | Send Message
     
    I had a GTC order over a month expecting end of year sales to hit them. Was getting worried it wouldn't get hit last week lol. A couple more days and I'd have had to buy at ask!

     

    I'm pretty optimistic for next year, with all the catalysts and the end of PIPE.
    24 Dec 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Anyone - HTL? - JP? - want to hazard a guess at what the cost base of the latest piper shares might be
    24 Dec 2013, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    I think HTL keeps pretty accurate track of the numbers, so his estimate will be far closer than anything I could guess. One thing that will be important to remember is that today was a non-event under the contract because the markets closed early.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: I post those daily both here and in my blog here.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hXP4gO

     

    Latest in the blog is through Friday.

     

    It's also in this concentrator - this link should take you there.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    If we need to go back further to look at what it would be on a specific issue date, name the date and I can retrieve it.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: I forgot I had Monday's up.

     

    Ignore the 12/21 date - it's really 12/23, Monday.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    FELIZ NAVIDAD to all.

     

    Desea-Carlos
    24 Dec 2013, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Latest from Jay:

     

    Hi Every One
    We have a running truck producing 125KW, still some minor bugs to work out but nothing serious. Hope you and your families all have a great holiday, I am looking forward to an exciting New Year. Thank you all for your help and support.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (733) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for Good News.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    John, Thanks for the update. Looks like your telling Jay that he had to come pick up his own Christmas present and that it would require an 80k lb GVW carrier provided just the right stimulus.

     

    Thank your team for the holiday gift and wish them all the best!
    24 Dec 2013, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    John, thank you and the whole team for working so long and hard to "get err done" before Christmas.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    So, 125 KW is approx. 170 hp. Cummins 6.7 is rated at approx. 350 hp. Must be just loafing along?
    24 Dec 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Cummins sells several different engine that use its 6.7L block and the one we've chosen is rated at 240 hp. Our substitution of a 6.7L for an 11 to 14 liter engine is a big reason for the fuel economy. We also don't stress the engine. After a one-minute warm up the engine throttles up to 1,800 rpm and stays there until you turn the truck off.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    6.7L Cummins Specs

     

    http://bit.ly/1dBxFFa
    24 Dec 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1212) | Send Message
     
    >After a one-minute warm up the engine throttles up to 1,800 rpm and >stays there

     

    A high efficiency place to be I assume!
    25 Dec 2013, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    The 1,800 rpm is the optimal point on the engine's efficiency curve.
    25 Dec 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1499) | Send Message
     
    My Very Special Christmas Wish:
    I wish for the share price of Axion to increase so that we can then found and capitalize our own Wall Street financial company....and be infamously ruthless, merciless, pitiless, miserly sons-of-bucks.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    Metro, Thanks for a great belly laugh.

     

    Oh, some good news. I thought that maybe you could only type!

     

    http://bit.ly/1c3Uan0
    24 Dec 2013, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    I think I know a few humans that could do with that "horseshoe-shaped bone" removed.
    24 Dec 2013, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    It has come to my attention that APH has, without any disclosure to either me directly or comment in the APC290 blog, further "moderated" my comments in that APC. SA has further advised deletion of a response to a comment by APH alleging that I called John Petersen a liar (which I did not do) while declining to enforce SA's Terms of Use with respect to John Petersen personal attacks (explicit allegations of lying) on me. The net effect of APH and SA moderator actions is prevention of any and all rebuttal of challenge to my credibility by John Petersen while protecting John Petersen in leveling allegations of lying and making false statements.

     

    SA's and this blog's "appreciation" of my efforts is reflected clearly in deletion of my rebuttals of factually false, libelous slander against me while retaining Mr. Petersen's libelous assertions and expression of support for those action by a number of blog participants. My appreciation of the APC blog community's "appreciation" of my efforts is reflected in discontinuation today of 'following' both Petersen and APH on SA and to compose what I expect to be a final comment for posting to SA blog boards.

     

    Excluding John Petersen, APH, and those APC bloggers who expressed support for Petersen and/or APH suppression of rebuttal to challenges to my credibility, APC bloggers who would like to hear my thoughts on outlook for Axion Power International and its share price are invited to communicate via PM.
    24 Dec 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I did not delete any additional comments by you.

     

    Recently we had suspected that someone has obtained the password. If SA advised that APH deleted, that seems to confirm.

     

    I will follow up by taking appropriate action with SA.

     

    I will post the results if and when I get them.
    24 Dec 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (425) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have saved a copy of your comment in case it disappears.

     

    I will now pursue the issue with SA to see what we can learn of the additional deletions you mention.

     

    I will immediately inform SA to be on the lookout.
    24 Dec 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3886) | Send Message
     
    " I expect to be a final comment for posting to SA blog boards. "

     

    Sticking to the aforestated plan would prevent redress of an apparent wrong. APH, if you did not delete any additional comments by me then you stand wrongly accused by me of doing so. I attributed that action to you on the understanding that only you and SA moderators held administrator powers enabling deletions and SA notifies bloggers by email of moderator actions they have taken. I have received no emails regarding comments that disappeared without notice, hence the logical alternative was the blog administrator (you). If you did not make undisclosed deletions, my apologies to you and to APC readers for a misleading attribution made in error with no intent to deceive.

     

    respectfully,
    25 Dec 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    Merry Christmas my fellow Axionista friend. I understand completely with your position in regards to the happenings over the past few days. Since we have not had much success with Axion I believe all of us have had our patience tested. With that said I am hopeful that you will be able to take a deep breath and shake these unfortunate events off and bury them in the history books of 2013 along with all of the other unfortunate failures in this ongoing Axion story.

     

    You are a valuable contributor to this blog and it would be a shame to loose you especially since we are hopeful that 2014 will finally bring us some good fortune and return some hope and excitement back to this forum.

     

    Just my $.02!!

     

    RBrun357
    25 Dec 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    D-inv

     

    The further modification is almost besides the point, though of course it would be worse. The Orwellian deletion of your post falsely claiming that you called John a liar when he called you a liar and the failure to delete his post is more than bad enough. I hope we get some explanation of this.

     

    In any event I am glad you will continue posting. The board needs a variety of different view points and there have already been too many valuable contributors who have left after ugly confrontations with John (Rick, Ed Buiel).
    26 Dec 2013, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    please allow me to echo these sentiments. it is better to get boisterous than silent. please consider copy and paste - offensive material over full deletion.
    26 Dec 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    To all the concentrator denizens, all those who watch in silence, all peoples ... Happy holidays and may you and yours fare well in the coming times and may no adverse events befall you or those you love.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    D-inv

     

    It is Christmas

     

    A time for love and understanding

     

    Best wishes
    24 Dec 2013, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    HTL, APH, JP

     

    What would we do without you three. I for one very much appreciate your efforts invested and thank you for them

     

    So HTL - bit sophisticated for me - but reading between the lines I am guessing the pipers had recent shares at a cost around $.095-.96

     

    I may have this wrong

     

    If right they play a dangerous game selling for a few dollars profit against that cost while driving the price below $0.10. I believe John is suggesting they are taking advantage of a short trading day to unload some shares

     

    Of course, the pipers, as the force that controls the price can back off on normal market days and perhaps expect the price to come back over $0.10 without triggering the cash payout

     

    Alternative is they want the cash and they need to blow the price out of the water as the gold manipulators did back in Spring 2013

     

    They sure look for every edge...after all this is their business

     

    The next week should tell the tale

     

    As always, I am learning as I go - and welcome critiques and comments
    24 Dec 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: Keep in mind it's the VWAP of the below $0.1001 trigger. Including the big pre-market $0.1022 trade, today;s VWAP is $0.1001.

     

    So we've not yet violated $0.10. :-))

     

    IIRC, there was no mention of pre-market vs. "normal" market hours as a restriction (if I'm wrong, someone please correct me).

     

    Without that trade, $0.0986, which would be an occurrence.

     

    As to the issue price, assuming they received shares around 12/5, the issue price should be $0.0954, 12/4 VWAP of $0.1122 x 85%. The 20-day within 40 version on 12/4 was $0.0987

     

    They get the lower of these these two.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    As a day when the market was open for less than 4.5 hours, it may not have been a violation anyway. Perhaps this is the the reason for the large dump rate. We'll find out Thursday if all of the low-ball buy orders orders have been filled.
    24 Dec 2013, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    JohnM121: They haven't. But I don't worry so much aabout them - it's the low-ball dumpers that step around the offers most of the time to hit the bid that I'm concerned about.

     

    If you check my blog stuff the "sells" percentage and volume describes our price difficulty perfectly.

     

    It's not buyers unwilling to step up, it's sellers will to dump at any price and buyers recognizing this fact most of the time that is the problem IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Dec 2013, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Today was a non-event because the contracts define Trading Day as a day when the market is open for at least 4.5 hours.
    24 Dec 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    The problem is AXPW's failure to deliver sales. Not buyers and sellers entering and exiting.

     

    With sales, stock price takes care of itself, with or without pipers.
    No sales = declining stock price.
    25 Dec 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2768) | Send Message
     
    Merry Christmas all!
    24 Dec 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Seems likely that the PIPErs took advantage of the short day to skirt the 15% rule, resulting in big bloc sales...

     

    And a tanked share price, of course.
    24 Dec 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Any reason why they would need to dump shares now?
    25 Dec 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17255) | Send Message
     
    FPA: The only thing I can think of is they know how many new shares they'll be getting with the long string of sub-$0.10 85% prices in the queue.

     

    ~$0.09 into the monthly pre-payment and true up is a decent-sized number.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Dec 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    The contracts only consider market activity on "Trading Days," a term that's defined as days when the markets are open for at least 4.5 hours. Yesterday was not a Trading Day for purposes of the contracts so the price and volume numbers are wholly irrelevant. It was quite literally a non-event.
    25 Dec 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8768) | Send Message
     
    FPA and HTL, Also could be other unknown reasons why they would want to be aggressive this year. Optimizing tax time between the two years? Maybe another opportunity to slay investors in a new offering coming up so they are freeing up cash? Momma or papa wanted a forever diamond for the season? We don't know.

     

    The only thing we do know is that thus far they have shown no signs as a group of ever treating this as anything other than a near zero risk investment based on their contract assigning them special class privilege.
    25 Dec 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1446) | Send Message
     
    Big block sales yesterday, yes, and a total daily volume new record even though it was a short day. Off the charts if you look at "volume per hour" so something was going on.

     

    My theory is that it was pre-planned PIPEr dumping. They usually have to watch their 15% daily maximum at every trade they make to ensure they don't breach it. If I understand correctly, since yesterday was not deemed a "Trading Day" as defined in the contract, then they were at liberty to sell with impunity. Thus lots of "hiitting the bids", cascading down through a lot of old GTC bids that were sitting there.

     

    It's actually pretty impressive that Axionistas sopped up another 4.6 million shares! That's after many months of sopping up tens of millions of shares while having the gut wrenching experience of watching the pps descend the whole time.

     

    I'd say the bids only having to get taken out to about the mid .09's to absorb 4.6 mm shares more than likely bodes well for future continued support of the stock, especially if there are announcements of good news. I have dry powder left and a price in mind for a big block if it wants to fall further.
    25 Dec 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    The cumulative dollar value of all trades since June 6th, the day when the first tranche of shares hit the PIPErs accounts, is $18.9 million. If we assume that all trades were double counted, the total cash realized by selling stockholders is $9.5 million. Since we know that some portion of the trades were single print crosses, the actual cash to the sell-side is certainly higher and possibly a lot higher.

     

    I remain convinced that the PIPErs have accounted for the substantial bulk of our sell-side activity since they started driving the price down in June. If I'm right, they could be close to a 100% cash-on-cash return at this point and having all their risk capital out of the deal before year-end would be a nice bit of window dressing for the year-end performance report.

     

    There's no way to know, but it's not outside the realm of reasonable possibility.
    25 Dec 2013, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    Are you hinting that it may be possible that, once they get their capital back, they'll start holding shares for future appreciation? They'll become owners, not traders? That'd be something.
    25 Dec 2013, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    It's hard to predict what the PIPErs future behavior might be. The first possibility is that they'll continue behaving exactly as they have, accept a 20% to 30% yield, and look to the warrants for upside. The second is that once they have their cash back and are playing with the house's money they'll slow down the selling rate to get the biggest possible bang for the last three installments. The third possibility is that they'll continue the pressure through the end of January to ensure that the share blocks issued at the beginning of February and the beginning of March are as large as possible. While I can see advantages and disadvantages with each strategy, I don't see any way to predict which they'll prefer.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    John: Glad to see you are letting go of the idea that all or the majority of AXPW shares traded are double counted. When I unloaded my fairly sizeable position last March and April over the course of 12 trading sessions, "gently" selling 25,000 and 30,000 blocks at a time during ten of those sessions, only once did I not see the exact amount I sold timed exactly when I sold said shares as tracked on Yahoo! from both my brokerage and gamer accounts.

     

    I think your $9.5 million total cash figure is a lot closer to the $18.9 million figure than any of us realize.
    26 Dec 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    What you've described is exactly what I'd expect. The first print occurs when shares leave the seller's hands and enter the hands of a market maker and the second print occurs when shares leave the market maker's hands and enter the hands of a new investor.

     

    While transactions can occur without a double count, they're few and far between.
    26 Dec 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    What I repeatedly saw was that when I traded say 25,000 shares, Yahoo! showed 25,000 shares were traded, and the daily total only went up by 25,000, not 50,000. I also recall that the one trade I made where I sold 25,000 shares, the MM bunched them in with another 15,000 shares, and the sale went of as a 40,000 trade.

     

    So I'm not so sure for tracking purposes that the "second print" is counted into the total volume for that particular day.

     

    As you know, I did a lot of gamer trading back in 2009, and I always tracked my buys and sells via the pay for use site QuoteMedia, (which I no longer use because I'm no longer day trading), and I never noticed on more thinly traded stocks a double count occurring. IIRC, I made around 1500 trades in 2009. Busy man I was!
    26 Dec 2013, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    Mayascribe, if you don't mind, would you be willing to elaborate on why you chose to sell at that time? I kept my shares and persuaded my wife to add many more, obviously to our great detriment. I did so primarily because I had a great deal of confidence in TG’s ability to successfully negotiate with a strategic partner, and if not, at the worst would negotiate a low-ball stock issuance in the upper .20's. Obviously that didn't happen. What were you seeing that many of the rest of us weren’t? Again, if you don’t mind my asking.

     

    To those who choose to throw out cheap shots at some of us who feel like our trust in TG and top management has been betrayed, I would ask you keep them to yourself. Just because I (and apparently many others) believe a different CEO with the very same set of circumstances could have successfully navigated a far better deal doesn’t mean we should have to put up with unduly disparaging comments for that belief (we feel foolish enough as it is). Top management clearly failed this loyal group of Axionistas, and to this day do not acknowledge or take responsibility for that. If the buck doesn’t stop with them, then where does it stop?

     

    P.S. — As unbelievable as it may seem, part of the confidence I had in top management back at that time was their decision to give themselves substantial bonuses in the middle of all these financial negotiations. — A point was made that the bonuses paid to themselves during the time of this fiasco was less than 1% of Axion’s total operating loss for the year. Is that really a reasonable metric?

     

    I think a more revealing metric would be what percentage was $100K of Axion’s amount of “spare cash” or “discretionary monies” for the year. Since most of Axion’s operating costs are fixed and take up the vast bulk of their budget, it would certainly seem $100K is a VERY sizable percentage of any discretionary spare cash. — Personally, I would have preferred this $100K go toward shoring up their sales department, and/or toward hiring or contracting with somebody who had more experience with securing needed capital.
    26 Dec 2013, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    John, I have hit the ask (when buying) several times, the trade was printed only once and the available quantity to sell at the ask price decreased by the exact count in the same time. Never seen a double count. If that had happened only once or twice, I could ignore it as an exception / coincidence. From five times up, I simply do not believe in coincidences.
    26 Dec 2013, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Poul Brandt
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    John, back earlier this year I several times purchases 100K shares on days with around 500.000 shares traded. I too never saw these as double counts.
    26 Dec 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    Maya, Nicu and Poul> What you're seeing is your side of the trade which shows up as a single count. What you're not seeing is the other side of the trade where another investor either buys or sells shares. By the time 50,000 shares leave the hands of Investor A and end up in the hands of Investor B, a total of 100,000 shares of trading will be reported – half at the bid and half at the ask.

     

    I've been following this kind of thing for decades and know it to be true. The double count is alive and well on the OTCBB.
    26 Dec 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1020) | Send Message
     
    John, we've seen "Chicago" last evening and this discussion recalls me the guy which was in bed with two girls and telling his gun threatening wife something like "I am alone, do you believe what you see or what I tell you?" - so I'll simply stop arguing here :)
    26 Dec 2013, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29448) | Send Message
     
    The only time the double count matters is when you're trying to estimate the volume of trading required to take a known seller's position down to zero.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Sure, Wayne. Probably a little late in doing this.

     

    At this time last year, my Wells Fargo broker (a Senior Advisor, who manages around $2B from his clients, and whom I've known, as I like to say, since before I was born), was strongly advising me to take a tax loss, and sell my shares. He was concerned that Axion should have raised capital by last December, and every month going forward, TG would lose leverage with potential investors. He got that one right for sure.

     

    But last December, I was a little too headstrong, and emotionally invested with Axion, as I had thrice visited New Castle, met TG, Phillip Baker, the workers there, and Bob Averill, Enders Dickerson and the lot, and liked them all.

     

    As each month went by early last year, and the stock continued to inch downward, I finally capitulated and sold. I had already twice been ambushed by the two previous capital raises, and didn't want to go through another one, of which aided by my broker's insights, I figured to be even more punishing to shareholders than the previous cap raises.

     

    I got into Axion because of the automotive sector, not railroad, and not the grid. As the years passed by since 2008 the promising BMW partnership kept being pushed back, and back, to the point where TG during some Q-calls didn't even mention BMW, and had to be probed. I found his answers vague and disconcerting.

     

    I also was alarmed by how long it took for Norfolk to take delivery of the PbCs, which were pre-ordered April of 2012, and not delivered until Dec. 2012. Further, I finally figured out that any future orders, likely for several years to come, from Norfolk would be smallish, and not contribute significantly (there's that word again) to both the top and bottom lines. I don't foresee any significant sales generated from Norfolk for at least a couple of more years (I target 2016 or 2017, before any significant RECURRING sales from Norfolk occur, if they do at all).

     

    My instincts back in last March/April (and actually well before) told me that BMW was more and more likely to have the near the same 2015-2016 time frame for any RECURRING sales to occur.

     

    I used to own a small chain of restaurants, and I had a "rule-saying" with all of my employees; "Instances don't bother me, trends do." There were just too many instances of Axion both underperforming and not delivering. Don't need to go deeply into that, because this blog has had more comments about this depressing matter than I care to offer a number to. But that trend continues today.

     

    More nitpicky is that us shareholders were left completely unaware that Axion could never become a commercial enterprise until New Castle figured out the automated carbon sheeting process. I will always kick myself, because after three trips to New Castle I never formulated the question of where they were made; recall several times here in the APC suggesting that they were fabricated in a "Bat Cave." I understand JP's reasoning that Axion could not reveal this hugely important matter as perhaps the automated sheeting process is the most valuable IP asset Axion has. But still, I found this bothersome (in an after-the-fact kind of way).

     

    Before I elected to dump my shares, I went back and read what I wrote about Axion, back in June, 2012.

     

    To me, here's the most important point I made from my second edition of Notes And More From The 2012 Axion Power Shareholders Conference (dated June 23, 2012):

     

    --My sense from New Castle is that the major OEMs are going very slowly with adopting the PbC. Perhaps the biggest problem is in the Catch 22 category. Axion does not have the capability to make millions of batteries. How does Axion gain a major order from a major automaker, if they can't make the batteries?

     

    I guess Axion is making some progress, but that Catch 22 still exists today.

     

    Other than living with my passing mother for years, and maybe a couple of failed relationships, there was nothing in my life more difficult, nothing more exasperating and gut wrenching than to sell my shares at a HUGE loss, and while I was doing this, it was even more troublesome to call my family and friends and advise them to bail back last March and April, before the next capital raise. I'm still reeling from this because it's not just the money, it's the lost opportunity cost I have had to live with. I now recognize I'll never get over this poor timing I had in investing so early in AXPW.

     

    To put it all in a nutshell, my broker this past March strongly advised me that I could not afford to lose my entire investment with Axion (right now, if I had held on, I would be down around 87%). And so, with great reluctance, I did. Pretty much every time we talk, we talk about Axion. Just last week I gave him an update about the tremendous upside opportunity and future Axion has with ePower and the trucking industry -- in large part, thanks to JP.

     

    Someday, maybe in a year or a two, I expect Axion to explode in share price. Maybe up 1000% from today's price. But I can no longer see Axion as a $10.00 stock, or even a $5.00 stock any time in the next several years, and my current feeling is that Axion is still at least years away from being anything more than a penny stock, unless the unlikely event of a reverse split occurs.

     

    What worries me most is how is Axion going to get there? How many more capital raises will be required? One? Or, more likely two?

     

    Axion may be emerging from the Valley of Death, but I simply do not see any RECURRING sales coming any time soon. It is my firm belief that Axion needs, has to have (or have in sight) RECURRING sales for Axion to begin to be a viable concern.

     

    I still follow this blog not only because I created it, and it has become perhaps the best running blog about any company anywhere on the Internet, but also because I have over the years developed great friendships with many Axionistas. And it's my deepest wish that all Axionistas sometime in the future will be hugely rewarded, and I hope I am back in when this happens.

     

    I only wish I would have paid more attention to my Catch 22 point about 18 months ago.

     

    26 Dec 2013, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    Maya, thank you for posting this thoughtful and sobering assessment.

     

    I also felt flabbergasted when the automated sheeting process was announced and felt betrayed that this fact that the company didn't prior really have a manufacturable product had been kept out of sight.

     

    I got in later than you (in about 1.5 years now) but have invested an enormous amount of money (and - kick me - still am) with an ever-yawning loss.

     

    The big mystery: why aren't sales happening (apart from ePower, as nice as that is).
    26 Dec 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Good luck Maya......

     

    Take a look at GAIN......Insider Buying, Upside breakout and Monthly income as a counter to PSEC.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2483) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately at this point, it no longer really makes sense to sell out. Holding shares is like holding an option.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Wow!! Thanks for the summary of your affair with Axion :)

     

    I am standing right now in a situation very similar to where you were last year. It is slowly dawning on me that, any significant sales so to speak, are most likely a 2015 event at the earliest. In the meantime, our financial situation is pretty dire and I fear the next capital raise will be a bloodbath.

     

    I have the utmost respect for the guys on this board as I have come to learn a LOT throughout the past 2.5 years, I got into Axion because I felt the story was compelling and made complete economic sense at a time, and also because I had read the whole story about Axion's incorporation, its debut, and the dedication of its management team to steer it through troubles, big and small. The one big mistake I made was to take a big position at once, instead of incrementally building small positions and keeping an eye out over the near term prospects. If there is a single lesson I have learned throughout this experience, it would be that managing one's position is absolutely crucial for investment success.

     

    Now about Axion's prospects in the future. Frankly, I don't know whether it will survive in its present form if the sales strategy doesn't start yielding orders, or at least showing a path to sustainable recurring revenues in the medium term. Capital raises will likely become more desperate and expensive, with the possibility that Axion's future ownership structure will be drastically different from the current one.

     

    I certainly appreciate that management have been working very hard to try get the PbC introduced to the market, but the high barrier to entering the battery manufacturing business has been rather punishing for Axion, and as a consequence it took years of delay until we could have a quality product coming out. In the meantime, some investors came in, stayed around for a bit, and bailed out in search of other opportunities, or for personal reasons. Some of them may have had similar painful experience in the past with other micro cap companies, they had a sense of "deja-vu" with Axion and didn't want to go through it again? Maybe. I don't blame them.

     

    Which brings me to management. Could they have foreseen these events and adopted another strategy? I don't know, and as they say, hindsight is always 100%. The past is the past, and what matters is how they can manage to get through going forward with minimal damage until they make it (or not) to the other side of the tunnel. We believe the current CFO has been hired with the mandate to help cultivate strategic relationships and use his professional network and experience to secure the best funding conditions for Axion in the future.

     

    And finally, my personal position in Axion. I am sticking around for the time being because, frankly, the stock is in the dumps anyway, and I still think we have a chance to survive the walk through the desert, despite the scorching heat. I am also curious to see how significant Cube orders are going to be, and what's next for the NS saga. While I do entertain the idea that once PIPERS are gone the price per share might recover somewhat, I don't expect the 100 million market valuation on sporadic Cube sales. On the other side, if the new CFO manages to pull out an early financing on surprisingly favorable terms to Axion (as crazy as this might sound to you), then I would foresee the selling pressure leveling off a bit. I will wait and see what the next 3 months have in store for us, before having to take a clear cut decision about my investment in the company.

     

    As we say here in the UK, have a "lovely" evening :)

     

    A
    26 Dec 2013, 07:25 PM Reply Like