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  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    First, how many of these seller's are going to be buyers in 31 days?
    27 Dec 2013, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, what happens in 31 days? I'm looking for any reason to be optimistic.
    27 Dec 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker: Wash sale rules.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Also, I still believe that news is coming in the not too distant future and will be a stabilizing factor. Especially if we get a (fairly) steady stream of news. E-power will have some fuel mileage efficiency reports, reports of who the fleet testers are. NSC could announce the trials of the 999, and PowerCube sales could be announced.
    27 Dec 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    trio
    27 Dec 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    No, your duo. I commented twice!!
    27 Dec 2013, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Ta
    27 Dec 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    I am hoping that good news from wheels on the road will remind people that the problem is the slowness of the buyers not the performance of the product.
    If it works for trucks, it will certainly work for trains and automobiles.
    27 Dec 2013, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    12/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up later).
    # Trds: 169, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 1863898, AvTrSz: 11029
    Min. Pr: 0.0953, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0970
    # Buys, Shares: 64 742298, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0974
    # Sells, Shares: 104 1111600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0968
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0985
    Buy:Sell 1:1.50 (39.83% "buys"), DlyShts 709398 (38.06%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 63.82%

     

    There was an after-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,858,898 to 1,863,898 and would lower the short percentage from 38.16% to 38.06%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 709,398 to 714,598 and the short percentage would be 39.06%.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0935 vs. $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978 and $0.0981 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0825 vs. $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957 and $0.0952 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    My pessimism from the past two days is continues on hold while I see what develops.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.32%, -3.85%, -3.13%, -59.75% and -6.50% respectively.

     

    I'll post when the blog gets updated for those that want to track that.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    I'm really surprised that on a volume of 1.9 million the largest trade was just 50,000. Very unusual. LOTS of smaller trades making up that volume.
    27 Dec 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Blog updated.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: With larger trades on the penetration day of 1,97MM, 460K, 200K and 9 trades in the >= 40K-66K range, we took a fair number of shares out of the market ... for now. Assuming that the really large trades were the bulk of the "big money" (more sophisticated?), I think for this stock the smaller number of larger trades is normal as the big money moved first and are, essentially, done for now?

     

    Will we see them again as price rises?

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    <<<<I'm really surprised that on a volume of 1.9 million the largest trade was just 50,000. Very unusual. LOTS of smaller trades making up that volume.>>>>...

     

    @RA: I'm wondering if the selling over the last two days is largely retail (not the PIPErs). This has the look, feel and smell of a wash-out bottom.

     

    I had to plug my nose and buy a little while its below .10c, because I think January might offer some fireworks... (to the upside, I hope!)

     

    And I'm wondering if NS will offer a press release on Monday or Tuesday of next week. If nothing more, just to make good on their statements of "by the end of the year."
    27 Dec 2013, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Tesla and the New Frontier in Electric Car Competition

     

    "The argument as to what's a better long-distance driving solution -- all-electric or range-extender -- will continue to rage for years. Reflective of this, both solutions will also likely thrive in the market for at least another five to eight years, at a minimum for cost reasons."

     

    http://bit.ly/1cESLGc
    27 Dec 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    Is there really an electric car competition that is meaningful? Or is there a blip about battery facilitated electric cars on a page in automotive history? I vote for the latter.
    27 Dec 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, There is a meaningful competition but it's not in this niche sector. It's the less obvious transition that's occurring with the removal of power take off functions from the ICE so that they can be utilized as necessary and the ICE can be right sized. That is where the real industry competition is heating up. The Tesla, Volt, Leaf, i3 etc. thingy is but a distraction to the huge underling shift that is occurring in the industry. And this all leads to light weighting which permeates the entire vehicle.

     

    To the outsider it seems like a small change. To someone that understands the investment required it's a massive shift. What makes it even more interesting is the investment required of such a low margin industry.

     

    Remember when luxury meant a V8.
    27 Dec 2013, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think I understand what you're talking about when you discuss removing power take-off functions from the ICE with changes like electric power steering, brakes, and fans, but I think many might benefit from a more detailed discussion. I recently learned about the huge differences an electric engine cooling fan could make for a diesel engine, but I suspect other examples are every bit as impressive.
    27 Dec 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    I understand and agree. It's my belief is that BMW and others will need Axion batteries to pull off the switch that Indelco is talking about.

     

    To use the Axion battery correctly, I believe you have to redesign the entire electrical system/car after rethinking: a) how much of "this stuff" can I remove that creates parasitic drag on the engine, and b) where can I find free power that has typically been lost as heat?

     

    The upside of all this is that Engineers now have something with which to compete against each other re pushing the ICE to what we now think of as extremes. My bet is that the auto, completely redesigned with Engineering that answers a & b, will produce fuel milage and performance that will please and surprise us. I do not believe the ICE will be replaced by electric cars.

     

    The short term irony is we were too good to be used as a replacement battery.

     

    A thought about TG and 'promises'. It seems NS also promised and didn't come through....maybe it's just something about batteries that takes longer than anyone expected.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Well the theory is really quite simple. You have an ICE that would, like a nuclear steam generator, like to just sit there and churn out x amount of energy in whatever units you wish to equate it in. This energy can be utilized directly as mechanical motion or it can be converted to other forms of energy prior to utilization. all well and fine.

     

    The problem is that these generators do not have the opportunity, in almost all cases, to just sit there and run in a sweet spot without consideration for the needs that are placed upon them. These needs, and thus the imparted loads, are variable. In the case of the passenger vehicle the variable needs are things like HVAC, power steering, windshield wipers, alternator/generator, engine cooling etc. Not too hard to come up with the same type of list for the nuclear steam generator.

     

    So let's ignore the nuke and just stick with the ICE. How do we determine how to size the ICE so that it always performs its role. Well years ago that was easy. Size it for peak acceleration. We had no other roles for it to perform. Step forward a few decades and we have the prior list called out plus a whole bunch of other lesser energy requirements. So now the ICE needs to be sized for the worst case of everything being on at once during hard acceleration. The primary role being turning the tires and all the power takeoff functions through the various aux. pulleys. V8 baby! Gas is cheap, Americans being 3-4% of the worlds population consume over 50% of the worlds petroleum and life is good forever. Oops.

     

    So after the oops created by the other 95% or so wanting their fair share and government regs what do we do. No more V8's for all. We'll do what we always do. Invent. Eureka, hey, we don't need all these aux. functions all the time. So we start pulling some of the pulleys thus pulling the aux functions off the engine and electrify them so we can use them only when we need them. Smart. And that's been occurring for some time. For GM the electric engine cooling started in earnest in the early eighties. Not for all the same reasons but it started.

     

    But the real challenge is not in recognizing this needs to be done and that it can be done easily but in how to phase it in and afford it. In addition to seeing the markets needs ten plus years out and getting it right. That's why we see groups forming because it helps to get things right and if they all jump together then you can't in effect be aux. to the group and wrong. Plus scale requires tens of millions. This planned path to phasing in this IDEA is where the real meat lies and is where we're looking for clues to support our, today anyway, insignificant player. It's a gantt chart spread over more than a decade with trillions of dollars of investment. Ever changing with waffling regulators influenced by politicians trying to gain advantage for the home team. J-O-B-S.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, I guess I have a problem with the word, "promise". To me, that word implies a type of oath. When my granddaughter asked me when my shop would be ready, I replied "by the end of 2014." When she was disappointed and asked when I would build her birdhouse I replied, "By June first. I promise." The first reply was one of intent. The second was a statement of guarantee. Honor, if you prefer. And you can bet your bippee that birdhouse will be done by 1June. Grandpa honor is at stake shop or no shop.

     

    I have not interpreted TG's remarks of prediction a "promise". NS rarely makes promises except to customers. I guess I tend to look at both outfits as having questionable prognosticators. Okay, okay, in the case of Axion, lousy prognosticator is probably more accurate. :>) But promise breaking? Nah.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc: "... It seems NS also promised and didn't come through".

     

    I'm thinking that it could be already doing what they said. But it' really sort of a minor event in the broader scope of what (NSC) is, so confirmation may not be warranted in their eyes with a special PR. Likely just a note in their quarterly stuff saying that live testing was started in 4th quarter and results have been as expected.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I've often wondered if with the failure of the original NS 999 NSC's initial targeted implementation plans might shift from the yard loco to the OTR unit. Ignoring the development of robust energy storage I see the OTR unit as being the far more complex implementation with more investment required up front. The upfront investment might be the stimulus to change focus to the road unit.
    27 Dec 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    Well, I tried to show it isn't quite the correct word by putting ' ' s around 'promise'.

     

    But, I'm well chastened….and happy to know a man who takes his word seriously.

     

    Have a great New Year.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure you're right. What's important to us is not what's important to them.

     

    It's funny…I was just trying to show some support to our CEO by recognizing that maybe some things are just out of his control. NGDGU :-)
    27 Dec 2013, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    Actually, thotdoc . . . . . just a man who's terrified of seeing a granddaughter's tears.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    NITE comes w/a $0.096 x 200K bid. Also 0n on the offer, but not best, at $0.0979 x 10K though.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When the tax loss selling stops it really stops.
    27 Dec 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    Low volume morning today. Might be a good idea for us to make some purchases at 10c to break the consecutive trading days cycle. Wouldn't take much.
    27 Dec 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    ZBB made a good start, going from 0.40 to 1.02...and 2014 will be a epic year for all battery producers. 2013 was a social media and biotech year, 2014 will be ours :)
    27 Dec 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    Vehicle electrification is to replace hydraulics used by brakes and steering with electric powered. AC can shift from running directly from the engine to electric as well. It's a good opportunity for anyone who can come up with a fast charge/discharge energy storage device. People prefer it when the brakes, steering and AC still run when the engine is stopped in a Start/Stop vehicle.

     

    Here is a more informed description:
    http://bit.ly/JwSMz1

     

    "To increase the electrification factor, for instance, we might replace hydraulic power steering with electric power steering. We can electrify the air conditioner. A number of mechanical or hydraulic pumps can be replaced with electrical systems. An integrated, electric starter/generator can replace discrete units, and that too contributes to increasing the electrification factor.

     

    Stepping back, an auto has four different power transfer systems: electrical, mechanical, pneumatic, and hydraulic. Electrical systems, generally, are the most efficient. And they can be monitored and communicated with more effectively than the others, which means they can be optimized and controlled for efficiency and performance. "

     

    And here is the part near and dear to us:
    "Technologies with unprecedented commercialization opportunities include:
    ...
    Batteries and energy storage systems . . ."
    27 Dec 2013, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    John-I responded before I read your comment. I agree it's coming toward us.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    BMW has the PBC in their component list. That may be the easy part.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1962) | Send Message
     
    From the article:" Bert, Moore's law is a simple observation of exponential improvement, so it certainly applies to batteries."

     

    I love it. Thanks to this blog, we are well educated.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    IMO ZBB realized that it needed a strategic partner to make it and licensed to Honam the right to sell outside of US and China. It still is just barely above the pre-reverse split price.

     

    Interestingly, zbb had to get rid of a CEO prior to the current one.
    27 Dec 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    There haven't been any actual customers in the pipeline. It's a good solution for grid storage in principle, but so-far no-one is buying except Marlon Brando's posthumous EcoResort project.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    PY - for the most part I agree and not defending zbb. Further, they probably have about 10 different demos.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    I thought taking a straw poll of how much "swagger" Axionistas possess would be festive as we look to the new year.

     

    I propose "swagger" to mean identifying the number of folks with 2+% or 1-2% stakes in Axion. Predicated upon the roughly $20 million market cap (200,000,000 shares outstanding), that corresponds to owning 4,000,000+ or 2,000,000-3,999,999 share stakes, respectively.

     

    This anonymous, though unmonitored and hardly scientific, poll will take place by hitting "Like" of either of the two messages below if you fall into the relevant category. Let's define "you" as you, family, and friends together - but omitting shares of any who are ALSO Axionistas and could be voting on their own.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    If (and only if) you and your circle hold 4,000,000 or more shares of Axion, please anonymously click "Like" on this message.
    27 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    If (and only if) you and your circle hold 2,000,000 to 3,999,999 shares of Axion, please anonymously click "Like" on this message.

     

    [Add 1 to whatever number shows here as I fall into this category and can't "Like" my own message.]
    27 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    I would add the 1 million mark to that. I don't fall in that category (yet), but I suspect many people are gunning to be a "million-share" stakeholder. The difference between 100,000 and 1 million is 1 million and the difference between 1 million and 2 million is 1, if you know what I mean.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    Wow, I can't imagine how sick I would feel right now if I had over $200k invested in this stock. I'm sick enough with only $17k invested (now worth only $7k and dropping). Count me among the swaggerless.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    I'll endorse Patrick's added category…

     

    If (and only if) you and your circle hold 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 shares of Axion, please anonymously click "Like" on this message.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    ngs, +1

     

    priceless. :>)
    27 Dec 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC
    One problem with your survey is that it assumes that those of us who bought shares when they were 5 to 10X more expensive than they are now have had enough dry powder to continue to average down over the lat year. Some of us haven't and so our total number of shares are lower while our investment might be the same as someone buying 5X as many shares now. Just something to keep in mind for your survey.
    27 Dec 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Rugged,

     

    I think a better measure of swagger would be what percentage of your portfolio is invested in Axion. This could be measured as capital in and what it is worth now. For me this is about 2%.

     

    I was thinking about this as I was reading Maya's post in the last concentrator. He said that he thought Axion had a good chance to have a 10 x return over the next couple of years. I think that is a stock that is worth a lot of risk. He also said that he sold because he was not in a position to lose all of his investment. My view is that Axion has a good chance to fail but it also has a great chance to have a 10x return or better. So overall this is a great opportunity but because there is a risk of losing everything I have kept my investment small.

     

    I keep looking for signals that the risk of losing everything is decreasing and if I get comfortable there I would put significantly more in (assuming the price stays the same). I would be interested in hearing how others think about how much of their portfolio goes to Axion.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    Seems like it easily could go down another 30% from here before the PIPERS are done. Then who knows what the next capital raise will do, but it won't be pretty unless there is a clear sales and revenue ramp within the next few months.
    27 Dec 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    LT, I agree that how much we paid for our piece of the pie is of incredible significance to our own circumstance, but when El Dorado arrives, the division of riches will only reflect how big our slice of pie actually is.

     

    Regrettably, how much we forked over for our piece will only be a historical footnote reflecting how forked over we were in this adventure, with early explorers disadvantaged relative to newer.
    27 Dec 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC, I think thoughts differ depending on what the intended assumptions that will be garnered from the data are. One might use the dollars invested to derive one set of assumptions and one might use the number of shares controlled for another. Heck, even the time one invested at is of value since the story has many dimensions.

     

    An example, If I told you I had 1 million shares of the stock you might say "Heck Iindelco is considering Axion a pretty good speculative investment." Now suppose we add to our data collection additional information and you find out 6 months ago I had 9 million shares.

     

    Any good experiment not only requires accurate statistically representative data sets but also the requirement that the data collected validates the underlying assumptions it's intended for.
    27 Dec 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Re: "the risk of losing everything"

     

    jcrjg et al> While I acknowledge that a nanocap that hemorrages cash would seem to be on a trajectory toward a total loss for its owners, I don't think that is correct. I think a 100% loss is so unlikely that I do not even discount that possibility into my buy decisions.

     

    What would change that for me is if Axion took on straight debt; but who on earth would lend cash to Axion, a cashless company with little prospect for near term positive cash flow sufficient to even service the debt? No bank or sane investor would lend Axion money straight up because the best case is just getting principal back plus interest (low probability), the medium case is the headache of ending up with Axion's assets to liquidate, and the worst case is default with little backing assets and taking a big hair cut. No, I highly doubt debt is in Axion's near future because it would make no sense.

     

    The risk is dilution; more equity being issued to get cash. Maybe much more. Conceivably there could be 500-750 million shares (reverse split adjusted) by the time this colt walks on its own wobbly legs. But here is the thing: we already have 200 mm. If that mushrooms up to even, say, 800 mm split adjusted, your share in the company gets reduced by 75% to 25% of what it is. Very bad news. Painful indeed. But in such a case your current investment IMO is STILL likely to be recouped several times over. So I see it as heads I win and tails I win a lot less and a lot later, but I don't lose. That's because right now I'm buying at a $20 million valuation a company that is destined to be worth much more in the market.

     

    I invite the counterargument that is alluded to on this board very often -- AXPW total loss, bankruptcy, reorganization. Anybody who believes this a fairly plausible scenario, please walk me through +specifically+ as to how Axion could get to that with no debt. (I may be wrong and better to find out now than the hard way later.)

     

    It's easy to watch the share price descend for many months and think "this sucker could go to zero", but when you view it as a business I just do not see the debt happening that could kill the shareholders. I see the worst that could happen if cash ran out as furloughing employees and incurring some fixed costs, etc for a while until new equity capital is found.
    27 Dec 2013, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    RA, +1. I think you are dead on with this analysis. Yes, we can be hammered. If there is another capital raise, I would far rather dilution than another round of plumbers. A massive dilution of 200% would take me from a 60-bagger to a 20-bagger. (my guesstimate) and that's not half bad.

     

    FWIW, my speculation is that when the quick run is over, a holder of long term would enjoy significant return yearly long past the quick pop. I'm one of those folks who hopes we never sell out to another company. I'd rather own this thing for twenty years with nice steady gains (capital) and an accompanying dividend of meaning.

     

    The children have returned home and I'm dreaming again about my boat. :>)
    28 Dec 2013, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    VW> I'm really liking the sound of "sixty bagger". Has a nice ring to it. Never seen one in person. The crazy thing about it is that I don't think $6.00 a share is crazy after sales have genuinely revved up and investors realize there is major industry change afoot.
    28 Dec 2013, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    Thanks for the thoughtful post. I have been thinking about this argument for a long time and I have another company where I think this argument applies so I have invested more thinking the worst case is that I lose some percentage of the investment but not the whole thing. I think that worst case is very unlikely with a substantial upside.

     

    So given that how much of your portfolio do you have in Axion? If there is really no chance of it not working then you could argue for a very large percentage of your portfolio, 30% or more. Even large companies run into big trouble and go out of business and Axion has little room for error. I agree with you about the debt being very important.

     

    In the case of Axion we still don't know that the whole thing works. I am very comfortable on the technology but it has been 10 years and no customer has said that this combination of features, price, availability is good for me and we are going to use this in a commercial application. My guess is that given the opportunities and the interest these things will happen but they are not certain, especially given the management. Your premise is that the business will ultimately work and we don't know that for sure.

     

    We don't need to rehash the whole epower thing. My view is that epower is encouraging but given their status I don't think this gives me a huge amount of confidence. The final confrontation between Rick and John was about how much confidence we ought to have based on epower and I thought Rick raised a lot of good points.

     

    Thanks
    28 Dec 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "...The final confrontation between Rick and John was about how much confidence we ought to have based on epower and I thought Rick raised a lot of good points."

     

    He sure did and that's why, for me, this first set of data from the sleeper cab with the Cummins engine is going to be the most important data point I have heard or expect to hear from ePower. In theory it's the first package with enough HP to keep a fully loaded tractor at acceptable highway speed. (place nail biting here)
    28 Dec 2013, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    >Rugged,

     

    Late to the party here, out of town working yesterday, haven't carefully read all the comments that followed but I do want to chime in.

     

    I like your idea fine, seems like it might be of some value.

     

    Hate your categories, they remind me of that legal category which I have always detested, "Accredited Investor (AI)" (and no, it's not because I am jealous).

     

    I like jcrg's idea of posting as a percentage of (portfolio, net worth?), this would certainly more adequately reflect "swagger" and I believe would eliminate the AI element.
    28 Dec 2013, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    To the extent that the numbers may be accurate, 12% of Axion's outstanding stock AT A MINIMUM is represented by the 14 Axionista respondents so far to my 'festive' survey.

     

    If each respondent's holdings are more to the mid-point of the categories and presuming the 4M+ shareholders actually average around 6M shares each, that percentage could reach 18% or even higher!

     

    That's "swagger" in my opinion and quite an interesting result to me regarding the members of this Axionista community.

     

    I took the initiative to propose a survey whose categories interested me (and which I presumed would also interest others). In the process, I exceeded my own preferred comfort level in disclosing my own position in order to be forthright in facilitating this survey.

     

    Remind YOU as it may, this survey has =nothing= to do with "accredited investor" issues.

     

    I personally find the issue of what fraction of our individual portfolios is concentrated in Axion of only vague peripheral interest and contend that determining how to specify such concentration will be complex and likely not satisfy everyone.

     

    You're free to run your own survey with categories you like…
    28 Dec 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg> Good points. I have the 2nd greatest amount of cash invested in AXPW of any individual stock I've ever owned. I have also done multifold due diligence with Axion compared to any other stocks I've held large positions in, so Axion is a very special case to me.

     

    That said, there are serious issues the company has to overcome. And there's always the possibility of being blindsided by a risk you never saw coming. That's a major reason I haunt this board. I never invest so much in one stock that my sleep is compromised, period, so your 30% is way too much for my cautious blood. Hard to say what % I have. Excluding home equity and a few hard assets that might be called investments I have some Federal Thrift Savings Plan savings in their stock funds where I cannot pick stocks. Excluding that, my "tradable" brokerage accounts including Roth IRA, my sunk cost in Axion represents some 10%, now down to maybe 7% at market. So as a percentage of net worth my AXPW is not a lot, but growing fast.

     

    The thing is though that the amount I'm willing to risk in any stock is dependent on how good a bargain the market is offering. At 30 million market cap I'm an investor in AXPW for sure but at 5 million I would really be backing up the truck!

     

    I wrote a few articles in 2013 on CHKR, an oil and gas trust that I have studied. There are risks to owning such trusts but I got out mid year at around $15 and bought back recently at ~$10, salivating, because the risk/reward picture in that stock changes in a huge way between those two price points. Much more so than most stocks due to the massive front loaded yields that taper off later. http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Dec 2013, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: start getting it warmed up - ETRade ATM reports market cap of $16..7MM.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2013, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Yes but once the data feeds reflect the full PIPE issuance the market cap currently is $20 million, based on 200 million shares. I bought at $.0965 because based on 210 million it was just $20 million. At this price you don't even have to worry about the 17 million warrants because if they get exercised at $.302, that's $5.1 million in cash the warrantholders have to throw in the kitty. Hardly dilutive to my shares bought at under $.10.

     

    The numbers are really stacked for buyers now, not sellers. On seriously good news from multiple fronts I think AXPW is a potential powder keg with the barrel aimed upwards. We'll see if the fuse gets lit.
    28 Dec 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1297) | Send Message
     
    I don't see how you can be so optimistic about the price being below $0.10. Have you considered what is going to happen next week when Axion has to cough up cash plus 25% instead of shares to pay the PIPERS.
    29 Dec 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    ngs> because ultimately the way to profit is to underpay for future earnings. If you are willing to assume Axion will have good sales and earnings in the future, investing profitably boils down to underpaying for those earnings and the only sensible metric available now to try to judge that is market cap.

     

    Yes I've considered that and discussed my thoughts on the resultant dilution of future financing in many of my posts. As for next week and the remaining few installments, cash is costly and could push the need for new financing to as soon as Q2. It would be pretty awful but it's not curtains by any means.
    29 Dec 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    NASA Glenn develops automated flywheel pulse-and-glide system; improving fuel economy up to 40-100%

     

    http://bit.ly/1ddBnqm
    27 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    Cool, BCON for cars!
    27 Dec 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Steve Bay
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Cool, more exploding cars!
    27 Dec 2013, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    How about another poll. I've been wondering whether this end of year selling will also be the end of -.10 pps within the first couple weeks or so of the new year. My inclination is to believe we'll be above .10 at least by January 15, so add one like to this post:

     

    YES, I believe pps will be above .10 by January 15.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    NO, I don't believe pps will be above .10 on January 15.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    That's a pretty short time frame. I'm looking for mid January to begin a 3-4 month period of jaw-dropping news (at least for the pessimists who said it would never happen). PowerCubes in mid Jan. NSC in Feb. ePower in March. BMW or other auto manufacturer by May. Then (June) the conversation will be (among the pessimists) "Gee, I wish I bought at $0.10 in January, $1.00 in February. Now we're trading at $2.54 with a $0.20 daily range." The optimists among us will be cashing out and starting VC-firms as Accredited Investors.
    27 Dec 2013, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Gotta say, I love your optimism. --- Regarding the short time frame, I actually extended it out from my initial thought of a 1-week time frame. With the end of the year selling out of the way, and some buyers sitting on the sidelines until the end of year selling is out of the way, I actually think we'll be above .10 the first week in January. --- BTW, I wouldn't call myself a pessimist, more like a "concerned optimist" (which I grant may at times comes across as a pessimist).
    27 Dec 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    I did my tax selling when I sold my winners. I don't put much stock in this whole tax-loss selling at year end idea. If it were ever true, the market would price it in early. The end of the year is traditionally good for equities. I was worried about the congress throwing another boatload of monkey wrenches into the system but that was been largely sewn up until after the next elections.
    27 Dec 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Indiana Harbor Belt lands local grant to convert locomotives to natural gas

     

    http://bit.ly/19QvxKU

     

    "$34.25 million grant from the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) to convert 31 locomotives to operate on natural gas.

     

    ... (CNG) ...

     

    will decrease particulate matter emissions by 97 percent and nitrogen oxides emissions by 87 percent"
    27 Dec 2013, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    A bit amusing, some innovation at NSC discussion:

     

    Wick Moorman: At RailTrends 2013, the right man took home the hardware

     

    http://bit.ly/1cuF76U

     

    "Moorman, known for his dry sense of humor, began his acceptance speech by quoting "Honeymoon Suite," a Suzanne Vega song: "One by one the old and young lined up to touch his hand/He spent the night explaining they had come to the wrong man." We'd chosen the wrong man to receive the award, he said, but the right company in NS. He then waxed a bit on the nature of innovation, demonstrating why we were spot-on right to recognize him.

     

    Innovation isn't necessarily about invention; often, it's about applying an existing technology, process or practice in a new arena, he said. And it isn't the exclusive domain of individuals. "There's such a thing as group innovation ..."

     

    Sounds like a good leader, but wish I knew how much he was plugged into the NS-999/OTR situation ...
    27 Dec 2013, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    The S. Vega song (with lyrics) from Youtube:

     

    http://bit.ly/JxuvsL
    27 Dec 2013, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    wtb, lock, stock, barrel, the girl, the watch, and the whole darn thing. He is the driving force and it is plugged into him. He is not plugged into it. Guaranteed.

     

    There is almost nothing in life about which I am certain. This just happens to be one of them.
    27 Dec 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    What makes a great leader is the ability to filter out the noise, choose the right targets and surround him/herself with excellent resources to get the job done. Constant feedback and tweaking with the ability to make adjustments or pull the plug at the right times. With what little I've read he appears to be such a person.

     

    Let's hope Axion is still plugged in. Based on the few public displays over the last year it appears so. Nothing worse than an overdue journey that ends up going nowhere. But it happens far too often.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    I doubt a good leader like Moorman, with an engineering background will walk away from the NS design/patent unless the concept does not work. On top of it, someone has to prove it to him.

     

    He will put the demo train in operation and let the results guide him for future decision?

     

    You can ask 1000 NS engineers, they will all say, show me the train does not work before they will walk away from it.

     

    We just have to be patience.
    27 Dec 2013, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1694) | Send Message
     
    In Puerto Rico, some long-awaited rules for pairing energy storage and renewable energy have finally been passed, after a year of wrangling that has kept new projects on the island in limbo until now.

     

    http://bit.ly/19QI7tH
    27 Dec 2013, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • 23808
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    D Lane
    Great news, this should remove some of the Power Cube orders delay.
    27 Dec 2013, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    Remember this from back in August?

     

    iindelco:

     

    The Military Connects Microgrids for a ‘Secure Cluster’ of Power Networks

     

    "Building economically feasible, grid-interactive microgrids is the next step in this process. We’re seeing projects around the world testing the ability of locally controlled energy systems to balance the grid at large, with grid giants like GE, ABB, Siemens, Alstom, Schneider Electric, Toshiba and Hitachi, startups like Blue Pillar, Viridity Energy, Powerit Solutions and Enbala, and technology firms such as Spirae, Integral Analytics and Power Analytics all taking different tacks on the challenge."

     

    http://bit.ly/14493jd
    27 Dec 2013, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    Schneider Electric and Viridity Energy may be Axion's secret clients.
    27 Dec 2013, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    What glared to me from the lead into this article was the author's reference to "self-sustaining energy islands".

     

    DUH!

     

    Crafty TG has us chasing all over the Caribbean when "islands" may be purely metaphorical and refer to the Military's micro-grid islands!~~
    28 Dec 2013, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Schneider has made some proposals with ZBB, e.g.,

     

    http://bit.ly/YJvJn1

     

    "Knowledge, Experience and Capability:

     

    Schneider Electric’s Energy Services 1,050 person team has constructed over 250 source and use control projects in the last 15 years in the U.S. alone. Furthermore, Schneider Electric Engineering Services, LLC is an approximately 125 employee organization created to maintain registered professional engineering licenses in nearly all U.S. States, including the State of Connecticut.

     

    Working together with UTC Fuel Cell Division and ZBB Energy on the optional energy storage features, significant resources and technical wherewithal exist to partner with CTTransit’s experienced facilities team to modify and operate all parts of the proposed microgrid system.

     

    UTC and Schneider personnel have been collaborating for months on several projects. UTC has an existing CTTransit contract to service and maintain the PureCell 400. UTC, including Jesse Hayes, P.E. is collaborating generously on this PFA response and the preliminary design and retrofit plans.

     

    Schneider Electric is currently working with ZBB Energy on contract # N62583-11-NOITA through the U.S, Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) on the San Clemente Island microgrid design – build project under DOE DE-AM36-09G029042. ZBB Energy’s Christopher Kuhl, is working with Schneider Electric’s Jeff Coles, P.E. and Craig Robinson P.E. on these named and other unspecified projects.

     

    Together, Schneider Electric and ZBB Energy have scores of successful, similar projects including several with the U.S. Department of the Navy and the DOE Smart Power Infrastructure Demonstration and Energy Reliability and Security (SPIDERS) which Schneider Electric is working directly and indirectly on, supplying energy storage and control, as well as power distribution products and services."

     

    Sounds strong eh?

     

    Didn't make the cut, although a different project in Hartford did.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fQqevn

     

    Not sure how the author defines "scores" ... as I recall from History class (Gettysburg address) a score in years is 20 :-)

     

    Note one comment (truth not verified) to the last article:

     

    "This report is incorrect in one key aspect (which was also initially reported incorrectly in The Hartford Courant, perhaps the source for this article). The funding is not for generation, as the wording suggests; it is instead for most microgrid components OTHER THAN generation. The money is for "interconnection facilities," e.g., wires and cables, switchgear, busbar, controls, point of interconnection and the like. The microgrid project hosts pay for the generation assets."

     

    I believe Schneider and ZBB worked on another grant proposal in New Haven that also didn't make the cut. Not that I have any idea what the "parameters" were used in the decision making. Both of these made the initial (fairly easy I believe) cut, but not the final cut.

     

    There wasn't a HUGE amount of money dedicated to the grants ... which I think were designed in wake of Hurricane Sandy.
    28 Dec 2013, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1694) | Send Message
     
    Would be very encouraging if AXPW ever partnered in this way with an established grid business like Schneider.
    30 Dec 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    greentongue,

     

    I don't see Viridity Energy as a secret client since we have already partnered with them in the past and they know full well about the capabilities of the Cube. Schneider Electric, on the other hand, would be a BIG endorsement of our technology!
    30 Dec 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    In my opinion the ZBB hybrid flow battery is an expensive and relatively low efficiency solution to the electrochemical energy storage problem. It also lacks the flexibility of a true flow battery to painlessly add energy storage capacity. I just don't see it as a viable product in its present form.

     

    ZBB's software+hardware product for smoothly connecting multiple generators and storage devices together MIGHT have enough value to support the company, but I am not betting money on that. Such solutions are a bit too vulnerable to software cribbing and newer solid state power switching technology.

     

    My guess is that their Korean partners will end up owning any useful technology IP and ZBB will become a shell. The name kept for marketing and political purposes as a US "name brand".

     

    I still own some (ZBB) stock, at a drastic loss.
    30 Dec 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    PY- that would imply a 500 million company within 6 months based on a ceo's sales projections that have never been accurate. I hope you're right, but done with wishing upon a star.
    27 Dec 2013, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Who the hell is Hans Streng, and is that him I see waving his hands over there?

     

    from http://cleantechnica.com:

     

    Mindboggling Consequences In Wake Of Battery Price Drops

     

    Originally published by ABB-Conversations
    by Hans Streng

     

    Article title:

     

    We are now in a transition period where battery prices are dropping by 20-30% each year. The consequences for the automotive industry are mindboggling

     

    http://bit.ly/JxFfah

     

    The original:

     

    Why the E-Mobility industry has reached the tipping point
    date: December 3, 2013 by author: Hans Streng

     

    http://bit.ly/JxFgLz

     

    subtitle !!??

     

    We are now in a transition period where battery prices are dropping by 20-30% each year. The consequences for the automotive industry are mindboggling

     

    About the author:
    I am Head of ABB's electric vehicle infrastructure unit.

     

    ======================...

     

    My opinion of ABB just sank ...

     

    I guess a "conversation" doesn't have to be backed up with any facts!

     

    Maybe Rand Paul should go work for those guys ... no footnotes required :-)
    27 Dec 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "Who the hell is Hans Streng,..."

     

    http://bit.ly/1cuYkoV

     

    PS: Mindboggling indeed.
    27 Dec 2013, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    Nice job!! to whoever 'painted the tape' to close at .10 today (though I'm still bidding just under today's market).
    27 Dec 2013, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Rugged, can I ask why you are still bidding? What about Axion's current situation gives u confidence?
    27 Dec 2013, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    Hi Stefan -

     

    1) My position is mostly about as large as it may be likely to get (and new buy-ins aren't materially lowering my average cost at this point), so these are mostly 'rounding up' transactions precipitated by the new attraction of below 10-cent pricing.

     

    2) We were both at the annual meeting. I came away very convinced of the vitality of the company and of the functional viability of the PbC product.

     

    3) There are just SO many irons in the fire sales- and relationship- wise that I continue to believe the logjam will have to break with a flood of orders at some point, quite possibly not to distant (and probably substantially before the next financing is needed).

     

    Like everyone else, I am on the edge of my seat in suspense for that moment's arrival. When the logjam breaks, THEN everyone else will be clamoring for shares while I will have built my position while 'no one' wanted shares and they were dirt cheap and readily available in quantity.

     

    When I believe in the prospects of a company, I like laying in as large a position as I can afford. I'm not one to chase markets upward, in part because it becomes difficult to determine value and shares must be pried (bid) from owners quite likely unmotivated to sell, and also because such upthrusts can be accompanied with wicked selloffs. And selloffs are terrible for me to weather as I run fairly leveraged portfolios.

     

    4) Like others have who have expressed such confidence, I am just naive enough to believe that Axion will not go bankrupt.

     

    5) JP says the company is great and I believe him.
    28 Dec 2013, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, you have to buy when there is blood in the street, even if it's your own.

     

    As RDC says, the illusion of being able to buy enough (relatively) cheap shares after the news that confirm the viability of the outfit is just that, an illusion.
    28 Dec 2013, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Cheap shares aren't so much an illusion as a transitory reality with an identifiable worst case end date. Six months ago we raised cash from a small group of financiers who have proven that their strategy is to buy at a discount to the low end of the trading range, sell close to the top of the trading range and be happy with a 20% to 30% profit with very little risk. Properly executed the strategy is hard to argue with if you're standing in the financiers shoes, even if it sucks for legacy stockholders.

     

    Markets are living organisms that adjust to the environment until they reach a state of equilibrium, or normal. Currently the biggest force in the market is a handful of PIPErs who want to sell at prices that are irresistibly low to buyers and disgusting beyond belief to legacy holders. The people who are in the market buying know the story well and understand that Axion is trading for about a fifth of the cumulative investment in the technology. Sooner or later the PIPErs will stop pounding shares into a depressed market. They may stop before they run out of shares to sell as part of their investment strategy or they may stop when they run out of shares to sell. Come hell or high water they will stop by the end of March if you assume they won't claim a price failure for the last couple days. If they do claim a price failure, they'll be out of stock by the end of February.

     

    The market has adjusted to the idea that it's supposed to absorb 400,000 shares of selling per day (1/2 of the 200 day average volume). When the sell-side pressure drops from 400,000 shares a day to under 100,000 shares a day, normal demand will be so far out of synch with supply that the price will have to respond and based on what we know of Axion's financial condition there won't be a new source of supply on the horizon for at least a few months after the old source goes away.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (147) | Send Message
     
    JP I agree with most of what you say here. The one thing I wonder about is the idea of 'normal demand'. If most of the current demand is coming from Axionistas who are compelled to add at crazy low prices, demand may well drop off drastically as prices move up to 15 - 20 cents.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    Treehill, great point ! Consider however two things:

     

    1) $.15 - .20 is a return (from here) of 50% - 100%. Not too shabby, that.

     

    2) In my experience, once long-suffering stockholders see the climb they usually make a scramble for additional shares. When the feast begins very few Axionistas will be discussing their diets.
    28 Dec 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Equity markets are like technology adoption markets and they follow a similar pattern over time where:

     

    • The first 2.5% of a market to adopt a new idea are classified as “innovators;”
    • The next 13.5% of a market to adopt a new idea are classified as “early adopters;”
    • The next 34.0% of a market to adopt a new idea are classified as “early majority;”
    • The next 34.0% of a market to adopt a new idea are classified as “late majority;” and
    • The last 16.0% of a market to adopt a new idea are classified as “laggards.”

     

    I'd put all current Axionistas in the innovators class. If that's the case then there should be five "early adopters" watching from the sidelines for every innovator who's already hit the buy button. Some want to see a better stock chart. Others want to see a clear path to sustainable revenue. Others still want to see revenues, cash flow or income break a threshold.

     

    http://bit.ly/sk4Y20

     

    My experience with other companies that suffered from big supply and demand imbalances has been that price changes are violent when the imbalance is finally corrected. My biggest caveat is that I've never seen a supply and demand imbalance that was even a fraction of the imbalance Axion has suffered over the last four years.

     

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2
    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

     

    It's hard for me to confidently predict that Axion will follow a similar pattern, but I'm personally banking on the notion that while history doesn't repeat itself, it frequently rhymes. I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I compare my average cost with the average cost of most other Axionistas. Suffice it to say that most of you will be jubilant before I get past grumpy.
    28 Dec 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    John, the illusion I was talking about is the following: many (potential) shareholders wait for the definite good news to start accumulating, hoping that they will only lose the first few cents of appreciation. What I think is that exceptionally few will be able to buy below 15c, very very few below 20c, very few below 30c and few below 50c.
    28 Dec 2013, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That ties to my prior experience with violent shifts in stock prices when circumstances change. Right now the great terror in everyone's heart is that nobody will want the PbC. Once the first credible customer emerges on the scene, the psychology will quickly shift to an assumption that everybody will need the PbC. That kind of sentiment shift is never gradual.
    28 Dec 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    "Right now the great terror in everyone's heart is that nobody will want the PbC."

     

    John, speaking for myself only, that’s actually about the LEAST of my concerns. I have virtually no doubt the PbC is an optimal solution for many applications, and in some cases, the ONLY solution. My worry is whether companies who could readily use the PbC will make purchasing decisions soon enough to ensure Axion's survival.

     

    Based on recent pps history, I would guess it will continue to decrease by a penny or so per month (~10% decline) unless or until the orders start coming in. At this point, as has been said many times, incoming orders are mostly out of anyone at Axion's control, at least in the near-term, which is so critical.

     

    If this continuance of no orders and revenue continues, and the PIPRs choose cash over stock issuance, a sooner than expected need for additional cash is quickly thrust upon Axion, a situation I have my doubts they're prepared for. And if they aren’t prepared for it, will they go for another round of PIPE financing (if they can even get it)?

     

    Here’s my own personal great terror. Axion either can’t find additional capital, or as a last resort, goes with another PIPE deal. What are Axionistas going to do? Will they hold and be willing to endure another massive dilution and painful pps deterioration? I don’t think they will, since they’re now far more knowledgeable about what PIPE deals entail. And so the massive dilution could be FAR worse than the last PIPE deal. You almost certainly won’t agree with this, but I think another PIPE deal could mean a dilution of a billion shares or more.

     

    To clarify, this is my own great terror. I don’t think it’s likely to play out this way, but I often question my previous optimistic assumptions given so many things have not played out the way I expected them to. At this point, it all seems to hinge on some “timely” orders and revenue, as in, just about NOW.

     

    P.S. I hope you can knock the socks off (as in eviscerate) this scenario of mine!
    28 Dec 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    I agree with John's analysis of the buying activity and selling pressure that's created our market reality of the last 6-12 months. I would like to add that I think most of the new buyers plan to hold quite some time for much higher prices. The shares are out of weak hands now; they're buying very, very green bananas for the most part. They understand the fundamentals of the company and its product's potential.

     

    Not long ago AXPW daily high/low had a spread of 10% or more pretty reliably so it could be day traded for good profit. That's no longer the case so I expect day traders made their exit. It's probably Axionistas that are sopping up the millions of shares now. They probably have been sitting on dry powder for a long time that's been waiting for a target of ten cents.
    30 Dec 2013, 06:07 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    There's been blood in the streets for a very long time and always used it as a reason to justify another purchase. At what point is it simply throwing good money after bad?

     

    It would be one thing if there wasn't a share printing press running at warp speed and we were simply waiting for testing to finish and deals to get worked out ... But alas, that is not the case. Given the current dynamics, time is of the essence with respect to current shareholders.
    28 Dec 2013, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    I know Stefan, I am down about $80k on AXPW. I am still trying to free some cash to accumulate at discount prices we see now. More dilution is possible, but until there is proof that PbC is not suitable for its intended markets (be it for technical or economical reasons) or that Axion if definitely not able to produce it in enough quantity, quality or at low enough price, I think there is no reason to sell.

     

    Looking in the rearview mirror, some may envy those who gave up and sold out at higher prices. But I think their fear was more lucky / simply conservative than prescient. There is basically no way to time this stock, unless you do something illegal. Those who are out will probably envy us who suffer now, when they will want in but the stock will be 50+c.
    28 Dec 2013, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, I believe your question goes to the heart of the matter, and for Axionistas it's the supreme question for this investment. There is absolutely nothing in the world of fundamental analysis defined by Graham & Dodd that suggests this company is worth more than zero. The price supports however are a matter of faith.

     

    If you believe that management is incompetent and the technology cannot sustain the assaults or delays against it then you sell immediately and walk away. If however you believe management may know substantially more than we about their business, and that the technology will out in the end, then Graham & Dodd suggest that we will have a strong price support near April. And if you believe the technology will dominate, then Graham & Dodd shriek that this is a spectacular opportunity.

     

    Either way, the outcome will be extreme. I certainly wouldn't try to suggest to you that the outcome of this will be pretty, because I have no substantive information that I can put on a spread sheet to suggest otherwise. It certainly looks dire, yes? Plumber exits in the Spring offer a quick pop, but otherwise, I see nothing solid to argue holding. Buying/holding sits directly atop faith. One's ability to buy/hold is directly connected to one's ability to absorb total loss and still sleep at night.

     

    Me? I'm a buyer/holder. Some of that flowing blood is mine. Still trickling blood however at a slower rate than I'm buying. So, to your point, I can't justify another purchase whatsoever. But I have faith.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    VW posted this above: "I'm one of those folks who hopes we never sell out to another company. I'd rather own this thing for twenty years with nice steady gains (capital) and an accompanying dividend of meaning."

     

    Some of us bailed out early because of one word "RISK" we knew that without sales and recurring revenue this capital raise would turn out disastrous ... just as you are seeing now.

     

    The further RISK is what VW just posted....if AXPW has to raise more capital, it could follow a couple of scenario's...either a bunch more shares issued ..and tied to a reverse split, or

     

    A strategic partner that buys a huge stake in the company, in other words ownership changes drastically. They could make it a success or they could resort to just licensing the tech .... either way existing shareholders won't get near the benefit.

     

    Both cases are not good. It was discussed here long ago on previous concentrators.

     

    Caveat Emptor rules here, I do not believe in JP's :
    inflection points
    Supply / demand theories
    How much money has been invested developing the tech has nothing to do with the future use, revenues, or stock price today or in the future.

     

    IN the past, we heard the same words .. such as when Quercus and the other big boyz bailed. It was touted that IF axionistas could absorb the shares then anyone wanting to buy had to bid high enough to get axionistas to turn loose of shares.

     

    It never happened, axionistas bought only to have 2 more share issues come ... that has taken supply upward towards 200 million shares & stock price cut in half twice.... With more shares sitting to be sold when this is done. TG has told us that they will need money in 2014, I seriously doubt he waits till 4th qtr. At these prices, I see very limited choices other than what I mentioned above re; a partner who will be in control or a reverse split (and this will take some sales and orders in the book)

     

    So trust me there will be enough supply of shares to take care of demand.

     

    The market is telling us that AXPW is worth $20 million today and that number drops with every new cache of shares the PIPER's get. Will it ever go up? IMO, not until you have a company with license fees/ royalties, or sales, and enough recurring revenue to turn a profit or at the least cash flow positive.

     

    The biggest threat, fear, RISK that current holders face is a change in ownership at these level. It is a real risk too, not imagined.
    28 Dec 2013, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1073) | Send Message
     
    Do you know a place where you can make lots of $$$ without hard work and no risk? Please tell me, I gave up searching for a free lunch some time ago ;)
    28 Dec 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    There is also the realization in the energy market that storage is vital in moving intermittent energy generation beyond a small market share. The initial requirements seem to need quick response but short duration for grid stability. Needless to say, this is the pbc sweet spot. I'm still interested in a company that has sales years behind what I expected because storage is just now coming into focus.
    28 Dec 2013, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    "The initial requirements seem to need quick response but short duration for grid stability. Needless to say, this is the pbc sweet spot."
    While PbC is not the only option, it is certainly a good one. If the projected market is anything close to what is claimed, we would not need a very big percentage to be a WIN for Axion.
    28 Dec 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    AXPW book value $0.10

     

    Price $0.10

     

    Bankruptcy requires a default to a creditor ready to force a liquidation with them responsible. The banks do it because they have a preferential position. Governments will very seldom do it and I cannot imagine a situation where AXPW would fall prey to that misfortune

     

    Another round of financing will suggest management have succeeded and need capital to expand the business - or failed because they could not after several years with a dynamic valued technology have found one customer of substance

     

    In the case of success this should not be dilutive to existing shareholders as the company will have confirmed a customer of substance that will generate profits

     

    In the event of the failure scenario - this will be the final test of TG's management. He must go - and hopefully not with a BOD approval of any bonus for him

     

    I suspect TG knows the timeline he has to work with

     

    9 months are go time...or be gone time

     

    28 Dec 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hell, they should just call Granville. Everything the guy builds disappears as soon as it's shipped.

     

    Pentagon Seeks To Build A Disappearing Battery

     

    http://bit.ly/1ccVHqW
    28 Dec 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    This is a take off from another article this week where:

     

    Scientist can make object invisible ... they do it with altering light waves in a manner that you can't see it with the human eye.

     

    It's on yahoo or bloomberg somewhere, I don't have time to find it again.
    28 Dec 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: Should be duck soup, from ARPA, DARPA, DOE or DOD perspectives. After all, they have lots of experience funding companies, products, technical and cost goals that disappeared many times in the past - this one should be about the same I think.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2013, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    What's that saying about the path from eureka moment to commercialization? One second, let me rub my sore $#@ and I'll think of it.

     

    Low-cost, eco-friendly rechargeable car batteries

     

    "POLYZION scientists combined the promising Zn and conducting polymer electrodes into a rechargeable cell exploiting ILs. Although scientists were unable to replicate the promising lab performance of the battery cell chemistry in prototype tests within the project timeframe, results were comparable to the performance of lead acid batteries. Thus, the rechargeable Zn battery could be a low-cost and eco-friendly alternative to lead acid batteries."

     

    http://bit.ly/1ccZmoH
    28 Dec 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Will NASA Glenn TAPS technology soon power our households?

     

    " The Thermo Acoustic Power Stick (TAPS) announced by energy startup Nirvana Energy Systems Inc. (headquartered in Portola Valley, Calif.) is designed to convert a home’s natural gas supply into electricity, providing the home with its own mini power plant, or micro-grid. The device was initially developed with PARC, a Xerox company in Palo Alto, Calif.

     

    At the heart of the device is Glenn’s acoustic-based Stirling technology that was licensed to Nirvana earlier this year. The Stirling propulsion technology, developed for spaceflight missions, uses acoustic waves instead of mechanical parts to convert and transfer energy for electrical power generation. According to Nirvana, TAPS produces between 1kW to 4kW of electrical power and 15-30kW of thermal power with efficiency in excess of 905. Nirvana is designing TAPS to be a compact system that can easily be retrofitted into residential systems."

     

    http://bit.ly/JzXZ99
    28 Dec 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    RE: TAPS from Indelco. The numbers quoted imply a thermal to electrical conversion efficiency of 8 to 12%. Now that's fine if you are dealing with an existing need for HEAT and you get the electrical energy for "free". But as a fuel to electric generator it's not very exciting. Better than thermoelectric modules (5%) but not close to an ICE like a micro-turbine, at 25 to 30%.

     

    Strictly a niche product. Maybe good for emergency power or camping or such. Maybe portable solar? I also wonder about the cost/Watt for the hardware. I'm interested but not excited.
    30 Dec 2013, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks SIHB. Might be good for some of the northern climates. Depending on cost of course.
    30 Dec 2013, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    iindelco: I forgot about auto exhaust heat recovery. That really IS free energy. If the device can be made cheaper then an alternator, it could be very useful when you have 10 to 30kW (hand waving average for a 100hp engine) of waste heat available.

     

    10% of 20kW is a good bit of electric power for an auto. Of course, you would need a PbC to buffer the TAPS generator for idling electric loads and so forth.
    30 Dec 2013, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Agreed SiHB. Lots of work going into the area but I haven't seen any projections on cost on any of the efforts yet. Here's some info on one of the DOE/BMW/Ford et al efforts. Tons of other work as well given, as you suggest, the amount of waste hear that could be utilized in many areas.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/19WPgIT

     

    http://1.usa.gov/19WPgIX
    30 Dec 2013, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    One thing that has been bothering me for some time is why we are falling into new opportunities rather than proactively pursuing them

     

    Any savvy management would have assessed the potential of what they had back in 2009 and have commissioned a market study that considered various alternatives for commercialization while identifying the low hanging fruit and a critical path to positive cash flow

     

    More I think about it - and consider where we are - I really wonder if TG and team was overwhelmed with BMW and missed the boat

     

    When I look at TG profile I see someone big on titles but not much that would suggest a strategic thinker. That is the most important thing that Board Chairs and CEO's should be doing

     

    Also seems happy to draw his salary and to take a bonus on completing a very bad financing for his shareholders. Folks where is the sense that he gives on sweet damn about us

     

    Wonder what else TG and team are missing in lost opportunities

     

    Our best hope is EPower and who brought that the Axion? Not TG

     

    In spite of it all I will stay in for at least the next 5-6 months to see what develops...maybe add some more on any news of substance

     

    As always feel free to critique

     

    There is no excuse for management to miss an announcement of significance by next fall and we Axionistas need to keep their feet to the fire

     

    of
    28 Dec 2013, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    dlmca,

     

    That's my strategy too for 2014. Will stick around for the next 3 months to assess the situation, but the moment I sense something is really getting fishy out there with TG's ability to deliver on his promises, I will lick my wounds and get out!
    28 Dec 2013, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3331) | Send Message
     
    like Germany residentials using tap water to power their homes with a long forgotten Tech.,,,,,,,,

     

    Or a myriad of pharma developing drugs in phase 3 which never made it out of phase 3.

     

    Or GM's CNG vehicles of the 1940's which did not see light again until 60 plus yrs later.

     

    You run out of money, you go Bankrupt......it doesn't have to be investors who pave your exit, it can be as simple as nonpayment of your utility bills.

     

    And then the tech will will be worth nothing.
    28 Dec 2013, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Old history. Don't recall ever seeing this.

     

    Well at least someone likes or liked us. Hey, a warm fuzzy from Auckland. Hey, dats on an island!

     

    DISTRIBUTED BATTERY STORAGE IN POWER SYSTEMS NETWORKS
    Rajan Madhavan Nair

     

    7. Conclusion and Future Work

     

    "...A pilot programme with with the newer lead carbon hybrid batteries manufactured by Axion Power International is recommended."

     

    http://bit.ly/1cxIgCW
    28 Dec 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Good sleuthing iindelco. How many more proposals like this have been made all over the world? TG said something along the lines in one of the CC's that they had so many proposal requests for PowerCubes that they had to pick and choose which ones to respond to and hold others for later action.
    28 Dec 2013, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Iindelco: I don't recall seeing that Aukland thing before. It's properties include "Modified: Mon 06 Feb 2012 05:52:00 PM EST".

     

    Having not read it yet, the time elapsed since publication makes me think that *might* be one of the "low hangers" that's *possibly* near to getting some ink on paper.

     

    Off to read.

     

    Thanks!
    HardToLove
    EDIT: I like this at the end: ".A pilot programme with the newer lead carbon hybrid batteries manufactured by Axion Power International is recommended".
    EDIT: 2 In the abstract: "It was concluded that the intrinsic characteristics of 1st and 2nd generation lead acid batteries make them unsuitable as the energy storage element however as there are limited number of results available regarding efficiency as function of partial state of charge for lead acid batteries, ...".
    28 Dec 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    The sponsor of the project in the paper posted. Vector Limited

     

    http://www.vector.co.nz
    28 Dec 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Great find ii, back after I finish.
    28 Dec 2013, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Nice find iindelco. I like when academics recommend us. Means a lot more than a salesperson saying it's the best fit.
    28 Dec 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Since we had a price failure below 0.10, when and how will we find out if the PIPE payment for this month will be made in cash or more stock?
    28 Dec 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, I would expect them to announce it in short order since it would be a material event. I expect this would be the case even if they contested it.
    28 Dec 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure that making a scheduled monthly payment on a disclosed debt in accordance with the contract terms is an event that requires specific or special disclosure. I'm also not convinced that a cash payment is a foregone conclusion because the price failure was de-minimis and trading volumes were solid. We may not know for sure until the annual report is released.
    28 Dec 2013, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (483) | Send Message
     
    Could it be like the $40K clause, three days, or is it, one day and you pay?
    28 Dec 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Jveal: Regardless of cash request, we should be prepared for another filing from Axion again increasing the number of shares to be issued because the last one used a share price much higher than the share price at the time of filing.

     

    Price is even lower than that now so they'll need to issue more shares down the road if some/all(?) payments are not cash?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for each of your responses. If iindelco is right, we should have an announcement soon. If JP is right we will find out by observing similar volumes in the next few days and get confirmation from Axion's filing with increased shares.
    28 Dec 2013, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    If memory serves right, there were a lot of or(s) in the agreement so there might not be a price failure in that it could revert to an advantage price over a longer period of time.
    28 Dec 2013, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, Well John's background gives him an advantage for being correct by a large margin concerning your question.

     

    ARGE, Based on the behavior of the PIPERS thus far I don't expect they would hold back for a second to take the path of highest low risk return. Don't think we've seen one single sign that would make us question that for a second. But there is always that possibility. They seem to hold all the cards.
    28 Dec 2013, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    It's not a single 'PIPE payment'. It's 4 or 5 investment groups who in aggregate are owed $1,000,000 plus interest this month. Each can choose cash plus penalty or shares at the best conversion price seen yet in this deal - actually at the lowest price anybody that has ever bought Axion stock in the history of the company. I tend to think not all of them will take the cash.
    28 Dec 2013, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2745) | Send Message
     
    Also these financiers do accumulate stock at times for trading. Special Sits has done it to AXPW for years now. It quite possible come January they may decide to accumulate again instead of selling now that they have knocked the share price down.
    28 Dec 2013, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    My best guess is if some good news comes along that sends the pps upwards, they'll likely take the stock issuance. If there's no news, and the pps trends lower, they'll likely take the cash, IF, they have that option (As far as I can gather, I don't think that's been determined yet).
    28 Dec 2013, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    If TG is so risk averse that he won't buy a couple shares at these levels, it would boggle my mind if he withheld info on a cash prepayment that would require an earlier return to the equity mkt for capital.
    29 Dec 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> With all the NDAs, insider buying in Axion is particularly sticky. Share value is obviously highly contingent on near term sales prospects for a company like Axion. Management may have been strongly advised to simply stay away from any trading in the stock, so I don't view any lack of insider buying as meaningful. As someone else remarked, generally insider buying can be very meaningful at times but a lack of it or insider selling may or may not be meaningful.

     

    As for a cash prepayment, I am with John. It's probably not an immediate news release event but something to report for the quarter. Considering the history this management has of failure to discuss seemingly any and all negative developments I would expect TG to say the bare minimum about any cash payments.

     

    So much of the negativity on this board aims squarely at management and IMO some of it is well deserved, but it's the PbC's performance metrics that ultimately count and not whether the CEO buys any stock. It's a valid topic of discussion but very tangential to Axion's value as a going concern.

     

    I like products that are so compelling that in the end management doesn't that much matter. If TG has a saving grace, it's that he's frugal on the cash burn. That could be huge once revenues have ascended. Perhaps one of the most valuable CEO traits is frugality as it's far better to have a cheapskate CEO who's not a great strategic thinker than a spendthrift who blows all the money gained by shrewd strategy (and then some).
    29 Dec 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • negoslavbg
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    BMW may establish a motor factory in Mexico or the U.S., and the Munich-based company could potentially decide on the project in 2014, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are confidential. http://bloom.bg/KdG88L
    29 Dec 2013, 05:54 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    Negoslavbg, thanks for pulling the curtain back a little on BMW.
    29 Dec 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (846) | Send Message
     
    negoslavbg, good find. BMW and Michelin have long, deep, and generous ties to Clemson University in SC. Wonder if the engine factory could produce additional product..
    29 Dec 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Hey, Currency manipulation works. Looks like Japan's latest move in the WW race to the bottom has helped Sony. Maybe they will bulk up and build a giga factory?

     

    Sony Won't Sell Its Battery Business: report

     

    http://bit.ly/1cMbjEs
    29 Dec 2013, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2728) | Send Message
     
    "Sony Won't Sell Its Battery Business: report"

     

    Or could it be that if they sell it they will have to show a huge write-off?
    29 Dec 2013, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    SiHB, Could be. I suspect Sony has plenty of those in the cue.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    I agree. Sony will write off their battery factories when it is advantageous to do so. A good year for their consumer electronics, movie studio, or (more probably) game division could trigger this.

     

    A "sale" would be a separate affair. As a primary consumer as well as a producer, Sony needs cheap batteries to compete in the commoditized electronics arena. I would be surprised if they sold off their battery division, but unsurprised by a large tax writeoff.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    12/27/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from the blog (up now).
    # Trds: 96, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 55000, Vol: 718698, AvTrSz: 7486
    Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0968
    # Buys, Shares: 24 209559, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0971
    # Sells, Shares: 72 509139, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0967
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.43 (29.16% "buys"), DlyShts 167300 (23.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.86%

     

    As is normal for this equity after a new all-time low has been breached, price and certain aspects of my experimental calculations have begun to recover. Thus far the price recovery seems a bit slower than in the past. I had recently posted it took about three days to get back at or above the prior “flat” price level. I don't know if this slower recovery is due to being in holiday season or it's a longer-term effect of loss of investor confidence in price behavior going forward near-term.

     

    If daily short sales percentage continues to drop and gets to levels of absurdity, we may not be able to recover to prior price levels. This would be, IMO, a direct effect of the long-term PIPEr behavior seen thus far.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0927 vs. $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974 and $0.0978 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0823 vs. $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943 and $0.0957 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    My pessimism from a few days back continues on hold, although the sluggish price recovery towards prior “flat” level, the already-falling buy percentage and the retreating daily short percentage gives me reason to be concerned.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.73%, 0.00%, -0.23%, -61.44% and -76.42% respectively. If we remove the 8K in 4 trades discussed below, the high moves to $0.0980 (-2.00%) and VWAP moves to $0.0959 (-1.14%). The only reason to consider this “without them” is that they were several relatively small trades near EOD that may be somewhat misleading.

     

    The daily short sales today remains above my medium-term trend line, but it has dropped back below my long-term trend line. This appears to be the start of a leg down to very low levels, percentage-wise, that accompanies reducing VWAP levels. It's still above our averages of 21.46%, 18.81%, 20.63% and 17.56% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages, and can be expected to at least achieve those lower levels. I expect it will drop much lower as this has been the behavior over the last few months. As with yesterday, I'm wondering if we'll start a new “normal” range with prices at this level. A range around 30%+ on a regular basis is still my preference.

     

    The usual additional commentary and detail are in the blog.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Dec 2013, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Follow-up to comments that disappeared without explanation, as it turns out.

     

    For comments that APH did not delete and SA did not delete, I have apparently exhausted all resources from SA to find an explanation.

     

    None has been found, based on a reply today from one individual within SA.

     

    I see only three possibilities now, only two of which I will voice here.

     

    A bug in SA software? Seems very unlikely to just affect certain comments, but maybe we just can't see a broad enough set of them?

     

    Another possibility, unlikely I think, is the commenter deleted his own comment through some error?

     

    Going forward if any comments _from_regular_particip... disappear from here *without* a message from APH, please post a comment and/or a PM to APH ASAP so that we can pursue it in a timely manner. Comments from known trolls are silently deleted; from regular contributors we'll *usually* post a comment to that effect. I hedge with "usually" because being human a mistake is always possible.

     

    Also your normal query e-mail to support@seekingalpha.com about the deleted message should be done.

     

    I suspect all this leaves some folks suspecting APH is "protecting" some contributors.

     

    Other than our assurance this is not so, apparently no "proof" is available.

     

    Stuff like this is the distasteful part of this volunteer job.
    29 Dec 2013, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    it is a distasteful job, but why leave out the 3rd possibility ?
    29 Dec 2013, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    May we assume you have changed the password?
    29 Dec 2013, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    BMW and Toyota partner up on sports car platform
    Toyota (TM) and BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) have agreed to a sports car architecture that the automakers plan to develop together to then use for their own brands.A cooperation deal between the two companies includes work on lithium-air batteries and the use of lightweight materials in vehicles.
    30 Dec 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Uh, really. I thought they'd just up and cover the grid operators out of the kindness of their hearts.

     

    Electric cars may hold solution for power storage

     

    "Of course, nothing with electricity is simple. To begin with, carmakers are not in the business of keeping the electricity grid stable. They build cars to perform on the road and worry what all this usage will do to their batteries.

     

    "Almost without exception, their first response is, 'If you use my battery for that purpose, we will void the warranty,'" said Tom Gage, chief executive of EVGrid, a California vehicle-to-grid technology company."

     

    http://bit.ly/1ch0oQm
    30 Dec 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Just put a buy order for 100K shares @ .102. Seems no sellers interested in the bid.
    30 Dec 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Barood: Just let it hang there and you'll get your shares.

     

    Wellcome!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Barood> I think your bid will very probably get hit later in the day. The bigger traders often lurk in the morning to sense the market with the action occurring later on.

     

    Also, if it's an all or none order it has much less visibility in the system, depending on which brokerage the potential seller is using.
    30 Dec 2013, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Smart Grid VC and M&A Shifts to the Grid Edge in 2013

     

    Goodbye, smart meters and distribution automation. Hello, energy storage and energy management.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ggGc2I
    30 Dec 2013, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    It's not just the manufacturer that should balk. The cars mentioned are leased. Car leases have mileage limitations to reflect the reduced value of the vehicle from additional wear-and-tear. These grid-connected vehicles are having their most valuable and depreciating component used. They're still at the proof-of-concept stage. But to make it work, the battery depreciation needs to be significantly less than the income derived from it. Lets give them a year and use all of that work to sell a pbc or 2.
    30 Dec 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    HTL & RA,

     

    I will listen to you both and keep it there, someone already outbidding me. It is not all or none, and hopefully my bid will be turning point for this stock out of the death valley :)
    30 Dec 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    I hope you do get your shares, B. But right now I'm sure glad I took advantage of .097 last week :-).
    30 Dec 2013, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Barood: We are coming off an all-time new low. Normal recovery time is ~3 days, but it's slower this time. Could be holidays or investor sentiment crushed by the PIPE deal or ...

     

    Something I've noticed over the last week is ARCA market-maker, who normally starts to drive offers to sell lower, has ben showing up early and getting out quickly, a big change from normal. They did it again today.

     

    Anyway, assuming the holidays or that sentiment thing has not caused a huge change, we normally get "late-day weakness". Don't worry about filling *today*. Tomorrow is 1/2 day and then all the traders come back after the first of the year.

     

    That's when we'll be able to tell if behavior has really changed or not.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    P.S. When the PIPE folks decided to move they cleaned out, in just two days, ~875K of bids at $0.11, by hitting the bids that had been sitting there for weeks. Plus a fair amount of higher bids in the process
    30 Dec 2013, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    HTL, FYI, I've only seen mentions that all the US stk mkts are open all day, every day this week except that they're all closed all day Wednesday, New Years Day. IOW, no 1/2 day tomorrow---full day instead.
    30 Dec 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    MrI: OOPS. Only bond mkts close early Tues. My bad.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3220) | Send Message
     
    HTL, no problemo.

     

    I like days like today when the Big Uglies, whether the old ones or the new, are either subdued or absent.

     

    Maybe their vacation helped set off the January effect already. Boy, if they want to start playing the upside, things are set up nicely---only one more day for tax loss selling, some of those that tax sold recently will start rebuying in a couple days, others will look to start or add positions, sentiment is low, the PIPE stk issuance is nearing the end, ostensibly we're nearing news, etc.

     

    Just lifting off the break here could juice their returns A LOT. And if they wanted to switch gears and actually support the price, holy smokes. Back to 20-30 cents in a heartbeat, I believe. The opportunity reminds me a little bit of the end-of-the-movie trading scene in Trading Places. Not THAT dramatic, of course, as significant news might not occur, etc., but a flip could produce a very big profit, nonetheless.
    30 Dec 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Barood> I saw your 100k .1020 bid in Level 2. It was the high bid for quite a while and some trades executed near and around it. It might be worth pressing with your broker that you think you are due a partial execution. It just sat there like an all or none order when it seemed to me you might be due since it was not. However I saw no trade execute below the 10.20 so it's not clear that you were due.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Regarding PIPE cleaning house, I wonder if it was to get certain gains or losses booked for 2013? They could be using 'specific identification' accounting for capital gains where they could sell at $.10 shares they have on the books as purchased 6 months ago for $.14 or something and get a tax loss. Holding those specific shares past 12 months into 2014 would put them in the long term category where they would permanently lose value as a potential writeoff, only available to offset long term gains and qualified dividends income which are less taxable.

     

    This time of year a lot of folks start thinking about April 15th before New Years!
    30 Dec 2013, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: Man if they were holding shares and we still saw what we saw, I'm going to be really depressed.

     

    Having said that, nothing would surprise me about it.

     

    But I'm in JP's camp here in thinking the evidence suggested they were dumping as fast as they could bail the boat.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    HTL> I've always thought it very likely PIPErs are holding significant shares for longer term appreciation. If they are and do have higher price targets in mind then it's really not cause for concern for ten cent buyers. I base my view by putting myself in their shoes:

     

    Maxim comes to you as an investor with a bond deal for an extremely weak company, convertible into common shares at the +borrower's option+ not yours. Do you want to do the deal? Of course you'd want killer terms for something like that, but foremost in your mind would be the fact that you're giving up $9 million in cash and getting in return probably nothing more than a huge pile of shares. Further, the market for those shares is quite thin so that liquidating them would almost surely crush the price. In fact you already have a history that you can verify of the Quercus/Gelbaum liquidation crushing the AXPW price for months or even years, with pitiful daily volume. So do you want to end up paying $9 million for tens of millions of shares of this company?

     

    From your perspective you'd want to do due diligence on the business prospects to ensure that the stock you're getting stuck with is very attractive compared to your $9 million. That's only the case if you genuinely believe in the company's product and future, ergo you would want to keep some piece of that future.

     

    Counter to what most Axionistas think, it really was not guaranteed that the PIPErs would get a 15% return by quick flushing all its shares into the market. The return could easily be much lower or even zero if the market could not absorb the shares in a fairly price resilient way (which it did).
    30 Dec 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    RA, "Counter to what most Axionistas think, it really was not guaranteed that the PIPErs would get a 15% return by quick flushing all its shares into the market. The return could easily be much lower or even zero if the market could not absorb the shares in a fairly price resilient way (which it did)."
    .........................

     

    I've thought about this as well, and have wondered if any of the PIPRs ever sold a share for less than they they paid for it (I doubt it). In which case, during those periods with the steepest pps decline, I've assumed they hung onto at least a portion of those shares. I think this is one of the reasons we've seen the relative resilience of the pps during this whole time.

     

    I tend to believe the worst of the PIPR selling pressure is over. Once the end of year selling is behind us, and with a little luck some kind of sales announcement(s) in January, I believe things could improve rather nicely. My prediction of +.10 by Jan. 15 was sort of a restrained guesstimate of mine. Given how how Axion ramped up in the month of January 2012 (about 100%+ IIRC), I think we could see a pleasant surprise very soon.

     

    EDIT: pps .27 on December 30, 2011 --- pps .60 on January 27, 2012
    30 Dec 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I will listen to you and change to expire in sixty days, hopefully it bring some support and confidence. I already own 300K shares with average .18c. I would like to bring my total shares to 500k if possible at these prices.

     

    I think things are ripe for big change and the sentiment exhaustion is ridiculous
    30 Dec 2013, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    HTL> I've done a little playing around with modifying orders in my Ameritrade account and checking the result in Level 2. FYI I was able to verify that Ameritrade is using market maker "CSTI" at least some of the time.
    30 Dec 2013, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: Good to know. And I know ETRF has used NITE in the past, CDEL before that and, if ETrade's sale of their MM operation goes through, they'll be using Susquehanna(sp?) financial's MM, required as condition of sale, some large percentage of the time.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Well, someone figured out how to keep EOD price up: 15;59:06 bid 1/100th below the offer. Thank you whoever is at NITE!

     

    And, indeed, someone did hit that bid for 500 shares!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    VWAP is at .1028 on volume of 464,600.

     

    Nice to see VWAP above .10... let's hope it stays. Tomorrow is the last day for any sort of "press release" from NSC regarding NS999 and still comply with their "by year end" remark from the Sustainability Report.
    30 Dec 2013, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    O.R.: VW Avg. Tr. Pr: $0.1039 at EOD on 465,260 shares, including the AH trade of 500.

     

    Volume, less the 500 which should not be included on FINRA tape, matches FINRA volume (464,760).

     

    I haven't checked, but your VWAP sounds a bit lower than what I would expect based on watching and what's in my spreadsheets.

     

    I just confirmed with the ADVFN "trades" screen that my entered trade prices are correct, so I think your number is a tad low.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    @H.T.L: I will most gladly accept your correction for a VWAP that is *higher* than mine! ;-)

     

    If yours was lower, I might argue! LOL
    30 Dec 2013, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Rats, missed this in my email:

     

    August 20, 2013: ABB traction power for Texas streetcars

     

    "... won a contract from Brookville Equipment Corp. to supply complete traction power systems for installation on Brookville’s new hybrid Liberty streetcars for DART (Dallas Area Rapid Transit), Texas.

     

    ABB’s scope of supply includes its CC400 traction converters, HEX 30 cooling units, and 99 kW AC traction motors."

     

    No mention of the battery choice.

     

    PDF on the ABB traction converter:

     

    http://bit.ly/1cijlPp

     

    Datasheet is not huge; don't think we can tell whether the PbC could be easily used in this application, or what if any extra electronics would be involved to use them. The NS work might help, but who knows whether any NS IP is now involved. No clue on weight issues, if any, either.

     

    Brookville was involved in the original NS-999.

     

    The original Brookville deal announced:

     

    "The Oak Cliff streetcar extension is slated for a late 2014 completion and will provide enhanced accessibility to downtown Dallas for residents in adjacent neighborhoods."

     

    http://bit.ly/10QFX6e
    30 Dec 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    It came up earlier this year. Some guy named Ed Buel was the battery consultant, though.
    30 Dec 2013, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Ah ... I think I might have been tuned out at that point ... here's the link:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    quite a thread ... more about Buiel's view on AXPW than about Brookville
    31 Dec 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (502) | Send Message
     
    By the way, Ed Buel said that he sold or didn't exercise his options in Axion. As a battery consultant, on projects like this Dallas trolley, it's better not to have a financial interest in your recommendations.
    30 Dec 2013, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    I guess I need to raise my bid, could it be the all time low is in? My bid was right by the ask and I got nothing filled. This really smells fishy, I don't think I should nickle this at these prices.

     

    what do you think?
    30 Dec 2013, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Barood: I think all of us here avoid making those sorts of recommendations - I can't speak for others but the guilt would aggravate me if I advised wrong and someone suffered for it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    @Barood: For what it's worth, January has historically been a good month for AXPW. I actually plugged my nose nose and added a *few* shares while it was (rather briefly) down below .10c...

     

    However, I'm neck deep in AXPW (albeit at a fairly low cost basis)... so maybe my opinion is biased.

     

    Ultimately, if missing out on a *pop* on some type of announcement next month would bother you, I'd buy now (we've bounced off .10c more than once).

     

    However, If you don't mind missing the first couple days of a rally, then maybe just accumulate now.

     

    Something's gotta give sooner or later with AXPW... just not sure when. My 2 cents....
    31 Dec 2013, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I definitely won't blame you for any recommendation, the market is more random than we think. But if I think from the perspective of risk/reward ratio, raising the bid doesn't do any harm. If I am betting on a 50 bagger with 10% probablity and loosing all with 90% probability ,the rational thing to do is just buy on the market with no change to the payoff function.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Barood: " raising the bid doesn't do any harm"

     

    That matches my thinking. For long-term anticipated potential gains, a few tenths of a penny here will be inconsequential.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2013, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think your probabilities are far too pessimistic. In December 2003 a 90% chance of failure was probably a good guess. With a fully developed Battery technology, a fully developed manufacturing technology and over four years of validation under our belts, I believe the probability of success is closer to 90% but the timing of that success remains uncertain. Companies that are destined to fail usually do so within three or four years. Axion has been around for a decade. It's a survivor.
    30 Dec 2013, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I'll take anything that will make my odds better, but it will not change my positioning decision. I like your tenacity because you have strong opinion on it with skin in the game. With all the encyclopedic DD you have done, prediction is still hard.

     

    The risk in investing is not in the probability of success but rather the asymmetry in payoff. Even taking my assumptions, it is very profitable.

     

    PO (payoff) = 50*0.1 - 1 = 400%

     

    That's why I like options, little downside huge upside. IMO, buying AXPW here is like buying an option with no volatility and Time premiums attached to it. There is nothing to hate about this, it is no brainer option.
    30 Dec 2013, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Barood, I like the way you think...
    30 Dec 2013, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    BTW,

     

    I use quantitative methods to analyze time series. Below is my best model fit for the price behavior of AXPW, it has been experiencing what we call an exponential decay since its inception.

     

    The price series below is the log of the regular price, and I have a linear regression model fit y = -0.0005x + 20.27 with R^2 = 0.88. This is a very healthy fit with a white noise residual.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gihgrH

     

    The beauty of the log that it re scales volatility so you don't get fooled by spikes, due to randomness, thinking it is a new trend. The key is to keep watching the residual before inferring any trend change.

     

    What is surprising me is that the volatility been in a consistent decay since inception of this stock.
    30 Dec 2013, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    Using the above model, we can extrapolate the price of AXPW into the future and for as long as we want and as long the exponential decay is intact, i.e. white noise residual.

     

    Below is a mathematical model to show the impact of randomness on a compounding return of an asset.

     

    http://bit.ly/1gikMCu

     

    The green line is an 8% annual compounding
    The blue line is a random series sampled from the flip of a coin
    The red line is the green line plus blue line. It regresses back to the mean. Reality is brutal where you have 90% of the expected return happen in 10% of the time and I think that will be the case with AXPW.

     

    Optinality is the key to profit from a market that thrives on randomness.
    30 Dec 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Barood> Viewing AXPW at ten cents as essentially a call option with no time decay or expiration makes sense. You are correct that like an option the future risk/reward scenarios are very asymmetric with the upside potential exceeding the downside many fold. I'm with you on this.

     

    However, I'm not a chartist in the least. I came out of the womb with a built in Graham Dodd Buffett frame of mind and I invest based wholly on that (fundamentals, i.e. looking to buy dollars for fifty cents or something). I sell options frequently but very rarely buy them and view that as closer to gambling since you have to be right on not just what but on when.

     

    My guess is that John is about right regards the PbC battery having about a 90% chance of adoption (profitably) versus 10% chance of failure. Understand that there are quite a few very different potential markets for a fast charge, PSOC friendly, self-regulating in strings, safe, battery and any penetration in even ONE of them would be a very significant catalyst.

     

    AXPW's shareholders' fate should simply follow the PbC's, although heavy dilution could be in the cards as well as some unforeseen power grab at the technology, i.e. patent infringements by big players, etc. So there are risks but the death risk is very low IMO. The chart says otherwise but the chart for about 5 years now has been forged by whale-sized sellers and minnow to mackerel sized buyers. That basically explains it. Very few funds etc can even look at this penny stock.

     

    Anyway, I am certain that your 10% chance of success is far too low. I've been studying this company intently for a whole year -- never done that before in a couple of decades of investing. Read my zillions of comments on it for my analysis. No matter how I slice the risks I keep coming up with something closer to John's 90% chance of success and far from your 10%. Hopefully you'll find some assurance in this.

     

    If you want to do intensive DD on the fundamentals, AXPW has some of the best opinion/commentary available of any stock I know that you can get from simply reading past concentrators and articles. We have some very smart and dedicated folk here who leave no stone unturned and have provided links to all sorts of documentation.

     

    What's great about this democracy here is that all the bearish arguments come out in full force for you to assess; there is no sell-side information filtering or worries that the bear case is being suppressed or underplayed.
    31 Dec 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    RA, thanks for the comment.

     

    From quantitative perspective, I never sell options because equities have infinite variance. Options are priced based on current volatility which is no indication of future volatility. If you are wrong, you loose a lot, but if you are right, you make a little.

     

    I am not sure if Buffet/Dodd would buy into this story with no proven revenue. And that's the thing I hate about fundamental analysis, you could be right but the market can stay irrational a lot longer than we can remain solvent.

     

    Quantitatively, this stock is not a buy because it's been in exponential decay since inception with strong statistical evidence. Quantitative methods have trouble predicting low probability events like BMW signing a contract with AXPW, or some other big catalyst for the stock. That's where optionality comes in, to profit from low probability/large magnitude events.
    31 Dec 2013, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Barood> You're right that Graham Dodd would likely not touch Axion. They looked at net assets and proven earnings rather than an unproven future. However I think Buffett would, provided that he understood thoroughly the PbC technology and relevant energy storage markets. Or maybe I'm not an exact protege of Buffett, but the idea of +always+ trying to underpay for future cash (fundamentals) is the same.

     

    It's not well known that Buffett in his early days when he managed small nimble sums did a lot of trading, unlike his image much later when managing a behemoth he eschewed trading for a buy and hold approach.

     

    On selling calls & puts, I have been doing it as my bread & butter strategy, my retirement enabler if you will, for about 5 years now. In all that time I cannot recall ever losing money selling an option! I've had plenty of paper losses where I've been underwater for months, but by a year or so later I've +always+ been in positive territory and when all is said and done. Of course a rising market has helped, but I'm sure in the long term all those positions would have been profitable for me anyway. The key is picking the right securities to sell options against. Options can be very conservative and significantly less risky than buying the stock outright.

     

    OTOH, I've gone long options only three or so times in those five years, as leveraged bets. I lost my shirt every time. Those losses were permanent, unlike being short options when you've got basically forever for the trade to work out. BTW, those three trades turned out to be good calls. Those securities rose by large amounts that would have paid off hugely were it not that I just missed on the timing. The options expired before the stocks rose.

     

    So shorting options I have done dozens of times and never lost money; being long options I don't recall ever making money. (Maybe a little bit a long time ago.) It doesn't get any more polarized than that!
    31 Dec 2013, 02:28 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2260) | Send Message
     
    <<<<<Those losses were permanent, unlike being short options when you've got basically forever for the trade to work out.>>>>&g...

     

    Not to nit-pick, but this statement is misleading. If you are naked-short Calls, and you are assigned... well, you end up with Short Stock in the underlying company.... there is certainly no "basically forever" in that scenario. However, if you were referring to "covered Calls" (which I think you were), then you face the opportunity cost of having your underlying equity called away (at the strike price)... and you forfeit any subsequent participation to the Stock's upside. But if you had always placed the Srike price at a level *above* your cost basis, then I can see you may have "batted a thousand".

     

    WRT being short Puts, you may be assigned and end up with Long Stock (equity) assuming those were Cash secured short Puts. I'm thinking you are very tactical with these (and this is what you were alluding to above).... that (once assigned) you have *forever* to wait for your assigned equity position to go up.

     

    Both long and short (Call and Puts) are "time constrained" I guess is my point... there is no "basically forever".

     

    Crawling back under my rock again....
    31 Dec 2013, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message
     
    Occam> Correct. The "forever" is once assigned and at that point simply long the stock. The option is gone at that point but it will have helped to lower my cost basis by the amount of premium received.

     

    Then I can write covered calls repeatedly, lowering my net basis each time. Plus I tend to write against decent dividend payers and add that income to my total return picture. Factoring all this, I haven't lost money yet (permanently). I always seem to have a couple positions underwater at any given time though as nobody picks bottoms consistently.

     

    I did not want to delve into all the details to make my points, just that it's possible to use options prudently to reduce rather than increase risk, and that by being prudent about security choices it can be a pretty steady winner at least.

     

    I've had an exceptional run due in part to the 5 year bull market lifting all boats, but batting 1000 is certainly not assured nor can it go on forever. Sooner or later I'll be wrong about the underlying stock and have a permanently impaired position.
    31 Dec 2013, 03:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Barood> I don't disagree with your strategy or analysis. I also think the consistent exponential decay you've observed is perfectly understandable given the things I now understand about the development process in battery technology. The PbC technology of pairing a lead electrode with a carbon electrode in a sulfuric acid bath was essentially an advanced science fair project when I inked my original deal with Axion ten years ago today.

     

    When we started down the path we expected an 18 to 24 month development period followed by a gradual sales ramp as we began commercial production. Instead of the relatively smooth and timely development path we assumed, we had to:

     

    • Develop a fundamental understanding of the electrochemical phenomena;
    • Optimize electrodes, electrode assemblies and critical integration components;
    • Develop fabrication techniques for electrode assemblies that be used in existing battery plants;
    • Conduct bench-top testing of components and systems;
    • Build and test many generations of prototypes;
    • Scale fabrication for validation testing by OEMs;
    • Conduct validation testing with first tier OEMs; and
    • Refine manufacturing processes to bring costs and performance into a competitive range.

     

    Every one of those steps was essential and none of them was a market moving event because the market isn't interested in anything less than a credible path to sustained revenue growth.

     

    It's really a bitch to watch development progress according to plan for a decade and watch value decay at a consistent rate as the major milestones are passed with better outcomes than you originally expected.

     

    We never believed it would take this long or cost this much money. We also never believed the product would work as well as it does or integrate as easily into other battery plants. We certainly didn't expect huge application niches like stop-start, trucking and rail to develop while we were perfecting a battery that seemed ideally suited to renewables integration.

     

    The best thing that's happened to me in the last decade has been my recent association with ePower which has given me the chance to see the PbC through the customer's eyes. It's an extraordinary battery with unique potential in several multi-billion niche markets where nothing else can truly do the work.
    31 Dec 2013, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    " ...The PbC technology of pairing a lead electrode with a carbon electrode in a sulfuric acid bath was essentially an advanced science fair project when I inked my original deal with Axion ten years ago today."

     

    Happy anniversary John! Since I know you don't drink can I just offer you a band aid or a soft cushion to sit on?

     

    Ahhh, just think how much sweeter it will be if it works out in the end. A real "Told you so" moment.
    31 Dec 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    Happy anniversary John! I hope 2014 brings along a lot of success and good things for Axion and ePower fortunes!
    31 Dec 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2823) | Send Message