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  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    first, Happy New Year!
    1 Jan, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    Chinese autoparts company bids for Fisker
    Jan 1 2014, 06:18
    China's largest autoparts firm, Wanxiang America, has surprisingly agreed to make a bid of $24.725M for Fisker Automotive and assume some of the bankrupt company's liabilities.The offer has come ahead of a hearing on Friday over whether Fisker should be sold to Hybrid Tech Holdings, an entity led by Hong Kong tycoon Richard Li.The Wanxiang proposal has prompted Fisker creditors to ask the bankruptcy court to block the Hybrid deal and instead hold an open auction.In 2012, Wanxiang outbid Johnson Controls for most of the assets of A123 Systems, which made batteries for Fisker's hybrid cars.
    1 Jan, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1537) | Send Message
     
    Everyone is recovering from post NYE hangover? :)
    1 Jan, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    BUENOS DIAS 2014

     

    Felicidades to all-Carlos
    1 Jan, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year!

     

    Year of the PowerCUBE!
    1 Jan, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • rhyse12
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    Health and wealth to all..
    1 Jan, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    I stayed up late to see if the NS999 would start rolling before midnight. I guess NSC did not make their self-declared goal of getting it going in 2014.
    1 Jan, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1537) | Send Message
     
    LOL NGS, what a dedicated way to spend NYE! :)

     

    NSC is a matter of days in my opinion...
    1 Jan, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    NGS, sure hope that isn't an accurate Freudian forecast. Perhaps you meant "by 2014" or "before"?
    1 Jan, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    NSG,
    My guess is that there is already an electric NS999 type switcher operating and won't be announced until it proves out.
    1 Jan, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    ngs> My guess is that actually NSC rolled the 999 before midnight with great fanfare, but then they made all the attending journalists sign NDAs. haha.
    1 Jan, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Happy Swaggering New Year !

     

    With a challenge to Rugged's "swagger" definition I'll offer that swagger is spending money you haven't made yet on Axion. Just last night ordered a custom made guitar. Never had anything custom made for me (TTBOMK) except furniture for SWMBO.

     

    Spending a tiny portion of my 2014 AXPW winnings on a custom built string dreamer. Kewel !

     

    Swagger.
    1 Jan, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    This is the year that ePower will "pull" Axion into the spotlight.
    "That Train Company" had its chance, now let's have a truck company show them how's it's done.
    1 Jan, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    greentongue> Amen. I love ePower.
    1 Jan, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    12/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 168, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol: 1003469, AvTrSz: 5973
    Min. Pr: 0.1020, Max Pr: 0.1065, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1032
    # Buys, Shares: 43 328813, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1039
    # Sells, Shares: 125 674656, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1028
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.05 (32.77% "buys"), DlyShts 44840 (04.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.65%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0918 vs. $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966 and $0.0970 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0877 vs.$0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921 and $0.0940 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.00%, 0.00%, -0.72%, 115.68% and 40.13% respectively.

     

    There was a pre-market trade of 10K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 993,469 to 1,003,469 and would lower the short percentage from 4.51% to 4.47%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 44,840 to 54,840 and the short percentage would be 5.66%.

     

    On the traditional TA front the only things worth mentioning are that for the seventh day we have traded predominately at or below the former descending medium-term support, and we had a lower close on increased volume today. Neither of these are encouraging signs.

     

    As I've been mentioning, this recovery from new all-time lows seems slower than in the past. I don't know if it's due to the holiday season, the PIPErs or, as some have suggested, tax-loss selling at EOY. Regardless, here we are at the fifth day and the VWAP weakened (see below), the daily short percentage is, for the second consecutive day, in territory usually accompanied by price weakening, average trade size is small (10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are 11,479, 9,353, 9,299 and 8,268 respectively), and buy percentage, even with today's improvement, is wallowing in the area it's been in during the down trend (29.08%, 29.60%, 31.64% and 30.94% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively). We need 35%+ on this last item, at a minimum I think.

     

    I'm not encouraged, but you should probably look at my charts around the times we made new lows and judge for yourself.

     

    The usual additional commentary and statistics are in the blog here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (264) | Send Message
     
    May Axion and its shareholders be blessed in 2014!

     

    Time to summarize and report on my "swagger poll" of how many Axionistas are heavy hitters in the stock.

     

    Bearing in mind that each individual was reporting shares for themselves and their 'circle':

     

    • Two individuals reported having stakes of 4,000,000 shares or higher, corresponding to 4% or more company ownership.

     

    • Four individuals reported having stakes of 2,000,000 to 3,999,999 shares, corresponding to another 4% or more company ownership.

     

    • Ten individuals reported having stakes of 1,000,000 to 1,999,999 shares, corresponding to a further 5% or more company ownership.

     

    Thus these 16 reporting Axionistas jointly hold a MINIMUM of 13% ownership of Axion.

     

    If their holdings are more to the middle of the cited ranges (50% higher than the range minimums), that joint percentage could easily be 19% to 20%.

     

    JP, as the one among us who may be privy to knowledge of some of the larger holdings, could you please characterize how these straw poll results comport with what you might have heard regarding such larger holdings?

     

    Do you have any opinions regarding how these larger stakes might be used to help 'the cause'? Like maybe pressuring the company to do a better job in characterizing the status of what's in the sales funnel or getting Axion to buy an extra half hour for questions during conference calls??

     

    I was personally intrigued that two of our Axionistas EACH have stakes exceeding 2% of the company. My curiosity would be regarding just how large those stakes are!! Those are =really= big commitments of dollars and confidence to the Axion story!

     

    ------------

     

    As long as I am summarizing, I'll report results of WayneinOregon's poll which solicited opinions as to where Axion stock would be trading January 15.

     

    • 32 reported believing the share price would be "above .10 by January 15."

     

    • 11 reported believing the share price would NOT be "be above .10 on January 15."

     

    As a footnote, the constructions were not exactly parallel: one says "by"; the other says "on".
    1 Jan, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (923) | Send Message
     
    RuggedDC, interesting numbers you came up with. IIRC, TG mentioned somewhere along the way that those who participated in Axion's capital raise in the Spring of 2012 have held their position. I don't know if this would have been a single entity, or more than one. But that would be a separate block of approx. 30 million shares.

     

    As a footnote, good eye on the non-parallel constructions on my poll. I too noticed they were not exactly parallel; AFTER that dratted SA 15-minute edit policy cut me off! :)
    1 Jan, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2589) | Send Message
     
    WinO, FYI, Granville did not say how many shares the 2/2012 investors have. My watching Level 2 and Time and Sales a ton in 2012 tells me that most of those shares were sold. But I have no proof of course.

     

    Rugged, thx for your data. Sounds like ur one of the biggest holders, too. U may want to seek legal advice regarding ur options for trying to influence mgmt, if u see benefits in that. A company that I have followed recently acquesced(sp) to a group of activist investors who only held a cumulative 14% of the company. You may have much more power than u realize, especially once the PIPErs are gone.
    1 Jan, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    I think it would be almost impossible for anyone to collect enough data to confirm the accuracy of your poll. It's certainly not the kind of data that gets discussed on the grapevine. Your poll results don't strike me as outside the realm of reason, but they do support my view that the stockholder base is broad and flat, rather than concentrated in a few hands.
    1 Jan, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • rastros
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year to all.

     

    In reading the above I felt compelled to say that my wife and I own just 45k shares. We thought we were really small fish, but I now realize we are barely microscopic! But, we are here, and in for the long haul.
    1 Jan, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    Rastros: I don't mind being plankton ... as long as the "big fish" aren't feeding on *me*.

     

    I intend to remain plankton.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Happy NewYear from the bacteria you plankton engulf. :>)
    1 Jan, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    VW: LoL!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Jan, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    rastros> May one day your heirs see your 45k shares as an inheritance of massive value. Big huge fish start out minnow sized.
    1 Jan, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, again here:

     

    Here might be another application for Axion-PbC:

     

    WHEN A PLANE NEED A TAXI

     

    http://bit.ly/1g1rLz2

     

    Saludos-Carlos

     

    Note:

     

    It seems the same application of NSC switch train.
    1 Jan, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2716) | Send Message
     
    carlos - sorry twice also (but only to a small degree - plankton size!):

     

    http://www.wheeltug.gi is a must see to the interested - and the soon to be interested!
    2 Jan, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    OT, I usually try to check myself before posting OT random thoughts, but I'm not sure this 2014 is starting off on such a great note. You know how sometimes you wake up and have a song playing in your head that just won't go away? Well 2014 started today with an endless loop of the Pina Colada song. Wonder where that came from ... and who likes getting caught in the rain?
    1 Jan, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (454) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Brand new graphs, through 12/31/2013, from John Petersen are now in the header.
    1 Jan, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year to all! Just wanted "y'all" to know that I did my part....lots of collards and black eyed peas. In the south, eating black eyed peas on New years means good luck for the new year....the more peas you eat the more luck comes your way. Same with the collard greens....the more you eat the more money comes your way in the new year. I ate more than my share of both, so you can thank me for Axion taking off this year (luck) and the appreciation of Axion stock (MONEY) ...you might, however, want to stand upwind.....
    1 Jan, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Before we put last year fully behind us - I'd like to go over one small detail. IIRC, we were promised sales by the Nov 15th call, and got precisely one sale. Has anything else been mentioned in the last 6 weeks? How long should reasonable people wait before asking why more deals aren't closing?
    1 Jan, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    This isn't the stock you're looking for - move along!
    1 Jan, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    User - that is a very reasonable question and part of the reason the stock trades at .10.
    1 Jan, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    Just my NSHO, far too much hand wringing for far too long about why things haven't happened.
    1 Jan, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    Really? Tell that to the people that have held Axion from over $1 to .10 with CCs that cut people off and are ended early with people waiting to ask more questions and a token sale taking the place of "significant" sales ... lest I go on.

     

    Come back to this board with this statement when the stock is back at a reasonable price level and projections are being blown out of the water. Then, your comment will be well taken.
    1 Jan, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    I am one that has shares from over $1 and a significant amount as well. Still waiting for the E ticket ride and feel it getting a lot closer. Don't expect to barf on my sister since I've matured a lot in the last 3 years.
    1 Jan, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    Well welcome to the board. Good for your sister.
    1 Jan, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (107) | Send Message
     
    SM, thanks for the long overdue welcome to the board. Concentrator #83 has a post clarifying the "barfing on my sister" response by dad (JP). I think #157 has a post (#3) about being in since 09/02/2009 @ $2.40.
    1 Jan, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    lol, I thought that sounded vaguely familiar.
    1 Jan, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    LOL, very apropos, user. Couldn't agree more. Like you, I have been in since 2009 and still own my shares I bought @ 2.10. I'm holding them until they are in the green. I have no doubt that will happen. I'm one of the larger holders here and am extremely bullish and positive. I'm also cognizant of how the real world works and know that things don't always go as planned. I actually hope the price stays down a bit longer for purely personal reasons. I want to buy more.
    2 Jan, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sitting here griping about why BMW hasn't taken off, or why NSC isn't progressing faster. I'm asking about a specific statement made in the middle of last year that we would have significant sales reported by the Nov call. Well, only 1 sale was reported, we're halfway to the next call and we've heard nothing.
    2 Jan, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (656) | Send Message
     
    The next call will be the annual report and is still about 90 days away.
    2 Jan, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    jpau, TG specifically said in the CC that the "significant sales" were taking longer than he thought and that they should materialize in "not six months," whatever that means. Based on past TG estimates, I take it to mean "about a year or two."
    2 Jan, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    my bad, year end
    2 Jan, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    I have updated the data for the AXPW mathematical model today and found out the stock has been diverging from the mean for the last couple weeks. It is not an anomaly yet if measured by its historical behavior and it is due to regress back to the mean in couple weeks which is close to 8 pennies based on the fitted exponential decay.

     

    http://bit.ly/JvbM1o

     

    What is intriguing me is why my order didn't fill the last two days and there were some trades right at my bid price and they gave me no shares, coupled with this divergence, gives me something to think about.
    1 Jan, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Plus the implied volatility is still dropping. Volatility on time series clusters and the calm is always followed by storms. Historically divergence from the mean used to be accompanied by increase in volatility but not lately.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bB87VW
    1 Jan, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    What mean are you talking about? It has been steadily dropping since the PIPE deal started dumping shares into the market. Do you mean the mean rate of decline?

     

    Fitting a line to a time series hardly constitues a "mathematical model."
    2 Jan, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • f-kru
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    Happy new year fellows. May Axion Power become cash flow positive in 2014!
    2 Jan, 04:13 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    http://cnb.cx/1hWRude
    Ford develops solar powered car for everyday use
    2 Jan, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2137) | Send Message
     
    LT, you are being humorous, yes?

     

    The roof panel might produce enough energy (at 1 sun illumination) to keep the battery charged, run a blower to keep the interior temperature not too far above ambient and keep a 6-pack sized cooler full of beverages at 10-15C deg. Possibly also power the music system.

     

    To charge a 50+ kWh battery pack would take weeks of sun on the roof. It's a PR project; a concept car, a gimmick!
    5 Jan, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    The technology is even more fun than that. Google has apparently built a canopy with a Frensel Lens that concentrates 8 times the solar radiation on the solar panels. Apparently the cars will be programed to roll back and forth to track the sun's motion.

     

    http://bit.ly/1f6QJAA

     

    Last time I checked solar panels had about a 20% conversion factor with the balance of the energy being dissipated as heat. So the cynic in me wonders what the internal temperature of the car will climb to. Which will turn to slag first, the batteries or the plastic parts? Inquiring minds want to know.
    5 Jan, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • siliconhillbilly
    , contributor
    Comments (2137) | Send Message
     
    JP: the latest thin film, GaAs cells are pushing 40% efficiency.

     

    AltaDevices is one maker of GaAs thin film cells.

     

    My info is a few months old now.

     

    So drop the time to charge from 100 to 50 hours of full sun :-)
    5 Jan, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    By the time you add concentration from the Frensel Lens, you can probably drop the charge time to 6 hours but the waste heat will be monstrous.

     

    Take a could minutes and check out the linked article.
    5 Jan, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1537) | Send Message
     
    Trends for Demand Response in 2014. Article worth the read, with several mentions of PJM program(s)

     

    http://bit.ly/18ZgAHZ
    2 Jan, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • anthlj
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    2014:
    In a single sentence, as of 1st January 2014, we have a company with an interesting battery technology/product with no immediate path to revenues.

     

    Absent a path to revenues, the current business model is reaching its denouement. This is likely to produce robust change, most probably to the detriment of current holders.

     

    Axion will need additional cash somewhere between start Q2 and Q4, depending upon current PIPEists option to demand cash +25%.

     

    This cash can come in the form of a 'strategic partner' or an additional PIPE. Either way you sell half the company for 12 months runway. There is nowhere else to go, no free lunch. Indeed, current holders pay in blood. Personally I prefer the strategic partnership. Current management will prefer the former, guaranteeing their continued salaries and additional time to deliver. Under the partner, current management will be gone sooner rather than later, because they failed to commercialize the technology. So here interests of management and the stockholder diverge. I therefore expect PIPE2. This will make PIPE1 seem like a walk in the park. But TG gets another year of salary and is another year closer to retirement. This is the old warrior's primary driver, and who would blame him. Family come first.

     

    The dynamics change dramatically if a path to revenue emerges, but this has to happen fast.

     

    Management indicate that stationary is the most favorable current market, the culmination of the past year plus sales work. Not many here see stationary as the answer to Axion's problems, yielding small single millions/year in non-repeating revenues.

     

    Second market is ePower, but this will not come soon enough, if it comes at all, early days there.

     

    Rail we can effectively eliminate as a source of meaningful revenue, possibly furnishing some degree of product validation, but not revenue.

     

    Auto is the wild card. A deal with BMW battery manufacturer or similar would be big, indicating path to automotive sales and means by which to produce volume for other markets (ePower?). No one has a clue when or if this might occur.

     

    An alternative path is to change the operating plan and slash costs. Stockpile electrodes for a few thousand PbCs, and halt all production. Subcontract/license PbC manufacturing to others. Maintain only a skeleton staff. Revisit if design wins are forthcoming.

     

    One thing clear as of today, the current trajectory is no longer functional. Change will come.
    2 Jan, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    Great summary anth, I agree 100% and have nothing to add.
    2 Jan, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Agree as well with this thoughtful and sober summary.

     

    That said, the dreamer/optimist in me will focus on the second sentence and hope for the adequate presence, not absence, of sales which could preclude either "a 'strategic partner' or an additional PIPE".

     

    Thank you anthlj for this post.

     

    2 Jan, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    anth> Your scenario is plausible that 2014 will be another miserable year with meaningful revenues no closer. I'm just not willing to bet on it. As I've said before, to understand a future winner and +not+ to act has risk, as does to act. Staying out of the stock to wait for more revenues might not work. It's possible a gilded larger contract announcement will bring immediate clarity, but it's also possible that a bunch of smaller but steadier orders will not bring any real clarity.

     

    What you are missing though is that the market tends to be forward looking. If potential stock buyers even start to get wind of likely or certain future revenues, the stock can climb before we mortals know why. By the time the news is out and it's clear why the stock is up your money might buy you 50% or 75% or 90% fewer shares or something. That's actually, in effect, equivalent to the dilution effect that you are so worried about, just in the opportunity cost sense.

     

    So while you point out the risks of holding (dilution), you fail to see the risk of the stock recovering apparently for no reason before known sales, when there is in fact a reason that you are not privy to. Or thotdoc's "sentiment factor" could simply turn up.

     

    I say that if you have spent months studying this company and you are still reading about it on a daily basis, then why don't you own it? When I research a stock and decide it's not a buy, I don't waste my time on it any further. I'm gone. Apparently you are still here because you really like the Axion story. Liking the story enough to stick around yet not owning any stock at all at this super low market cap to me is folly. Good luck with timing the market later as luck will be what is needed.
    2 Jan, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    ahthlj, that about sums up our current situation. Path to revenue in first quarter, or current stock gets diluted to like nobody's business in the next capital raise.

     

    Unless they are sitting on a mountain of power cube sales, I don't see anything that will show a path to revenue that soon. Despite all the optimism, ePower ramp is at least a year away, and only if testing proves their product both capable and reliable. Based on TG's own comments, BMW is so far out, it is not even on the radar screen anymore. And Norfolk Southern has all but abandoned the NS999 project. Multi-Link is supposed to be integrating PbC into its power supplies, but call their sales and tech support departments to ask about it and they have no idea what you are talking about.

     

    It's looking like a rough year ahead.
    2 Jan, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    Speaking as a customer, there is little in the world more offensive than baseless speculation by stockholders of a vendor about what our time-line, ramp rate or development path might be. I know exactly what ePower is going to do in a worst case scenario. We're going to build ten tractors and put them into the hands of fleet operators who want to conduct short-term fuel economy testing in their business.

     

    I haven't the foggiest idea of what the fleet operators will decide their next steps should be, although its highly likely that some percentage of the fleet owners will decide that they need to buy testing fleets that are big enough to give them statistically valid long-term performance information.

     

    My big fear as a manager is that demand will ramp more quickly than we're prepared for.
    2 Jan, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    Well said Ant.

     

    Given the "trends" that Maya spoke about, the cynic in me wonders if the material parts of the grant application were redacted b/c they were not in line with the picture that has been painted for investors. I guess time will tell.
    2 Jan, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    NGS: "And Norfolk Southern has all but abandoned the NS999 project".

     

    Got a link to counter the stuff that we know NSC has published about rolling out 999? Granted, they might be late or just silent.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4525) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... Even I, a person that came to Axion primarily because of rails and couldn't be more depressed with progress, think that saying Norfolk has all but abandoned the BP4 project is a little ridiculous. I don't think that for a minute. I do feel it has dropped down the "To-Do List" because it has missed the 2017 commercialization window, the cost of fuel is much less volatile today than it appeared years back and several other factors. It will progress at a pace that will not make me happy but I don't think they care all that much about my expectations. They are so cruel.
    2 Jan, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    Funny how you don't seem to mind all the other speculators who seem to think ePower tractors will be selling in the thousands this year. All any of us can do is speculate until such time as ePower actually has a finished product to sell and orders on the books. But right now, it is just an R&D project that shows promise, and I actually thought I was being optimistic to think a sales ramp could start as soon as next year.
    2 Jan, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    Nobody has ever suggested that ePower would sell thousands or even hundreds of trucks this year. We think the R&D stage is over and the third generation tractor will be our first generation product. We should have a real good feel for the likely market response within a couple months. While I'd like to build a hundred unit backlog this year, I don't suffer from any delusions about the time it will take to ramp from one tractor per month to 15 per month.

     

    All I'm asking is that you stop spouting off about things you can't possibly understand and give us a chance to do our job without either condemning to mediocrity or creating unreasonable expectations.
    2 Jan, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4525) | Send Message
     
    My hopes for Axion this coming year is for it to be a year filled with demonstration projects .... FINALLY. A few trucks rolling around gathering data & buzz, a locomotive being known to finally be rolling around gathering data, a significant grid application that can be identified and the biggest milestone is that manufacturing partnership being penned. That last one I'm almost hoping it is not with the BMW supplier but the independent other one but I'm not that picky as long as it just gets done.
    2 Jan, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    If you like, I can go back and paste links to numerous comments on past concentrators from people who seem to think ePower will be Axion's salvation in the near term. To me, THAT is the unreasonable expectation and, unless this concentrator is just supposed to be one big pump-fest, it needs to be countered.
    2 Jan, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4525) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... I see ePower as Axion's best near-term salvation because it seems to be the best possible proof of concept. They seem to want their product to see the light of day. When it comes to sales ... I just don't see anything coming in 2014 from any direction.

     

    Axion, in my perspective, is in desperate need of an application that can be publicly pointed to that says the product actually works. Norfolk Southern, BMW, Viridity along with DOD, DOE and some unknown PowerCube purchaser may in fact be actively investigating Axion's PbC there is just no way to actually know that because it all being done in the dark.
    2 Jan, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    I read anthlj's analysis as predicated on the absence of a 'path to revenue'. I would also emphasize that we don't necessarily require the revenues themselves as long as we can see the path and the obstacles on that path look surmountable given our fitness level.

     

    Every company needs money to fund operations and R&D, etc. Money can come from revenues or from investors.

     

    Money from sales is the ideal source but I don't think we need actual revenues because if we have 'confidence' in future sales revenue then investors will provide money.

     

    A small amount of Powercube sales will give us a little money but, more importantly, greater confidence in future sales revenue.

     

    10 ePower trucks will give us a little money but, more importantly, the steady stream of data (assuming, as we do, that the data is positive) will give us greater confidence in future sales revenue.

     

    With all due resepect, I think Anthlj's conclusions are excessively pessimistic for current shareholders, of which I am still one.

     

    D
    2 Jan, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    "I see ePower as Axion's best near-term salvation because it seems to be the best possible proof of concept. They seem to want their product to see the light of day."

     

    - What he said!
    2 Jan, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    "I read anthlj's analysis as predicated on the absence of a 'path to revenue'. I would also emphasize that we don't necessarily require the revenues themselves as long as we can see the path and the obstacles on that path look surmountable given our fitness level."

     

    Ahhh, Thank you for that wise comment D.McHattie. If we didn't think the stock was going to move as a possibility before actual revenue or earnings we'd be fools to be invested right now.
    2 Jan, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    iindelco and DMcHattie> Well said. I've been trying to harp that theme but struggled to be as clear as that. The expression I've always heard is that "markets are forward looking". The year in which revenues ramp may be much less important than the year in which market participants figure out that revenues will ramp in the future.
    2 Jan, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Nathan Kemalyan MD
    , contributor
    Comments (533) | Send Message
     
    seems to me that'd be a great problem to have. You have ORDERS and have to fill them; you talk to the bank about a line of credit. You take some money up front from buyers. You build up some inventory of those critical batteries, before the supplier goes dormant for lack of other customers. You quickly rent another building, hire a bunch of gear-heads and ramp up your custom-hand-built production line
    If 10 tractors become 100, it'll spark alot of blogging, but won't be any impact on the AXPW balance sheet. If the 100 becomes 1000, it may not be enough to keep AXPW safe from the payday lenders. If the 1000 becomes 10,000 we're probably in business. Irrespective of the stock price, the company will need operating capital unless it goes into sleep mode. Who's the next sugar daddy and what will they expect from their little chickie? My micro-stake will become a nano-stake, but then it was poker money anyway. My best bet is for some big OEM to BUY THE COMPANY and it's stock. Come on JCI!
    5 Jan, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    Extending this pessimism to others, it implies that there is a lot of money on the sidelines watching and waiting for a sales ramp up. Even a slow but predictable increase.

     

    Pessimists are never disappointed.
    2 Jan, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    JohnM, I agree. There are people who read this concentrator and are swayed by the sentiment (thotdoc's theorem). They are ready to pull the trigger, read some negative scenarios on here and pull back. Nothing wrong with posting negative possible scenarios, but I do think it has consequences. Last week I bought 10K more, but before buying had second thoughts because of the negative outlook swaying my thoughts. However, TG said there would be significant sales "not in six months", which I took to mean within that time period based on his earlier statements. The one powercube sale that was announced is the first of many, I believe. Regardless of the non-event on the NS 999 rolling before the end of 2013, I still feel that they are on track to (may already have) roll it out for track testing. We know where Epower is. We are still meeting with BMW and other Auto OEM. All positive factors. And I think that SENTIMENT is what is going to move this stock dramatically when it moves. There is a lot of built-up expectation. when some of that expectation LOOKS like it is about to come to fruition, the stock will jump. In addition, I believe that EXPECTATION of sales will ease any further financing negotiations. The risk/reward ratio would be high. The more POTENTIAL for sales would indicate a greater reward for financiers as will as potential stock holders. so, PowerCube, NSC, EPower, BMW, other Auto Mfg., any one of which will lead to positive sentiment that will lead to a higher stock price, higher visibility for AXPW, a better negotiating position for further financing needs. I'm still a believer.
    2 Jan, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    HTL
    Apologies if this has already been covered

     

    Wondering if we can make a reasoned estimate of when and at what price the pipers will receive their January shares?

     

    I have tracked the daily AXPW close in 2013 and then summarized them in monthly average prices by month. I have then multiplied by 85% to get what I assume was close to the piper’s price per share. My assumptions may not be correct?

     

    Average of the daily close

     

    June 0.2048
    July 0.1934
    Aug 0.1435
    Sept 0.1263
    Oct 0.1201
    Nov 0.1183
    Dec 0.1099

     

    Piper price @ 85%

     

    June 0.1741
    July 0.1644
    Aug 0.1220
    Sept 0.1073
    Oct 0.1021
    Nov 0.1006
    Dec 0.0935

     

    Interesting to note the ever decreasing real dollar returns. Of course they have more shares to offset

     

    I also took a look at the correlation between the price I assumed they paid for shares each month and what happened to the AXPW price in the following month. While I realize there are other buyers and sellers – the correlations is there but not at the 15% mark-up I would have expected they would be looking for

     

    I also note that as the price has deteriorated the correlation becomes more precise – but still not at a 15% mark up

     

    If $0.0935 is close to accurate for the January pipe price – and the correlations hold - then it looks to me that we can expect them to either hold sales in January at roughly $0.10 to avoid the payout feature – or they will sell in the $0.096 range consistent with mark ups of recent months

     

    Time will tell

     

    The suggested January action pushes us ever closer to lower February and final March issue prices. Good news could and will hopefully intervene.

     

    Sometime in March they will have been fully paid and perhaps the $0.10 price condition will be irrelevant. Perhaps my assumption is erroneous and the $0.10 continues into the future?

     

    HTL and others more enlightened I look forward to your thoughts
    2 Jan, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: only VWAP price, the lowest of the day before the share issue or the average of the lowest 20 days' VWAPs within a 40-day window, matters.

     

    The lower of those two numbers *85% is the price.

     

    So if you know the share issue date, you just find the two numbers I post each day in the comments here, and in my blog, and you can calculate how many shares will be issued. Keep in mind that there's the pre-payment each month and then a "true-up".

     

    JP can give more details on it since I've really only been concerned with providing numbers it's within reason for me to get, considering time constraints.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    NITE puts a bid of $0.1011 x 270K at the open.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Did NITE pull their offer or was it filled?
    2 Jan, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    Filled - took out all the higher too!

     

    ARCA on top of offers now at $0.10.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL!

     

    Looking like the PIPERs got reloaded or just the fact that "They're Baaack".
    2 Jan, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2589) | Send Message
     
    All four PIPEmen of the Axpocollapse are at the top of the offer list, led by ARCA. So, although it's very early in this month's cycle, it looks like their behavior has not changed. Of course they could be selling shares they might have left over from previous cycles, but a couple early data pts say they took shares instead of cash this month.

     

    If so, although that would mean they have a lot more shares to sell (super-ballpark---11 1/2 millionish), at least Axion avoided a $1.25 mil cash drain, which is a biggie for a company where every dollar is important.
    3 Jan, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    Hope you are correct MrI: Today traded $33,048.8894

     

    ARCA came in quite late, which likely accounts for the low volume and a price that held up relatively well before that - 14:59 or so.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2589) | Send Message
     
    HTL, a poster PM'd me that the PIPEr selling over the past couple days may have been true-up shares they just rec'd, and that the Feb 2014 prepymt shares won't be avail to sell until Mon or so. Not sure if those thoughts are consistent with the deal docs or not, as I just don't spend enough time on AXPW anymore to warrant that investigation. But maybe you or someone else who completely understands the docs (is there anyone that does other than Buyers' Counsel?, lol) can authoritatively comment about those two seemingly reasonable pts.

     

    Thx.
    3 Jan, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    Thanks MrI!

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    HTL Thank you

     

    Suspect the prices of the various calculations are not that much different - even mine

     

    Anth - excellent summary. Thank you. Good dose of reality

     

    That said, the reality is the same within the walls of AXPW. If we feel the pressure for positive news then so too should they

     

    When you really boil it down - it starts at the top.

     

    "Current management will prefer the former, guaranteeing their continued salaries and additional time to deliver". "TG gets another year of salary and is another year closer to retirement. This is the old warrior's primary driver, and who would blame him. Family come first".

     

    AXPW is not TG. If it is then we have a board who are failing the company and their responsibilities.

     

    A CEO has to produce results within a reasonable time frame. That time frame is near its end

     

    They must consider all options as I have been preaching for over a year now. My instincts suggest this is how our new CFO will think - and that unlike his predecessor he will be less inclined to keep TG salary and perks going at the expense of doing the right thing for the company

     

    " the current trajectory is no longer functional. Change will come". That change needs to come from the Board
    2 Jan, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    I hate to rain all over a favorite urban legend, but I've grown weary of the non-stop character assassination. The simple fact is that Granville took a monster pay cut when I convinced him that Axion didn't stand a chance of survival without him at the helm. His salary doesn't do much more than pay the costs of a replacement CEO for the elevator company.

     

    Have you guys ever bothered to read Tom's resume:

     

    "Mr. Granville served as the president of a New York State elevator company that specialized in the installation and maintenance of elevators, escalators, moving walkways and other building transportation products. Mr. Granville also served 15 years as treasurer and ten years as the president of the National Elevator Industry Inc., a trade association that represents elevator manufacturers and contractors, where his duties included labor negotiations for national contracts and oversight duties to a $2.3 billion national pension fund. Mr. Granville has also been a partner, or the general partner, of a number of real estate partnerships that owned multi-family housing, commercial real estate and a cable television company."

     

    If you start putting any kind of reasonable numbers on the variety of things Tom used to do for a living before devoting his life to Axion, the sacrifice quickly gets scary huge.
    2 Jan, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John,

     

    I, for one, have always and continue to be supportive of Mr. Granville's tenure. I would consider his premature (pre-adoption/sales) departure to be a serious red flag. I have said this before and it is still apropos to this discussion:

     

    'you go home with the one that brought you'.

     

    I was unaware of your role in keeping him "at the helm" and so offer you my thanks for that.
    2 Jan, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (923) | Send Message
     
    I believe Lee Iacocco had a resume even more impressive than TG's, but when he was offered the opportunity to turn Chrysler around, he chose a path much differenrt than TG. IIRC, he took only $1 dollar as salary, and went out and SOLD his product. He went to the airways, preaching quality, innovation and commitment. In the end, he inspired confidence at a time many people were nervous about even buying another Chrysler product.

     

    This may be an unfair comparison, but it's one I sometimes think about. It seems to me we need a CEO who has some of the same leadership skills that were exhibited by Lee Iacocco at Chrysler's time of crisis. Someone who's going to sacrifice for his company and its shareholders. I just don't see that kind of commitment from TG. It sure appears to me he's trying to squeeze out a little more salary and bonuses before he departs the scene. I don't believe this is character assassination. It strikes me more as a sober assessment.

     

    When Lee Iacocco agreed to $1 / year salary, it told me he was reaching for excellence. When TG took his full salary plus a 10% bonus, guaranteed for three years, at a time of serious vulnerability, it told me he was settling for mediocrity, or something even less. That's how it appears to this shareholder anyway.

     

    I do not share some of the more pessimistic comments this morning. Despite my lack of confidence in top management, I think there's a good chance things could turn around quite soon. But I do agree that something needs to happen very soon.
    2 Jan, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    Stockholders always want visionary CEOs who have deep enough pockets that they can afford to sacrifice everything, climb up on the cross and make their investment a staggering success. We're talking batteries here, not cars or other direct to consumer products. The only way to sell them is to prove to a hard-nosed businessman that your solution is better and cheaper. Businessmen in the first tier don't believe anybody's BS until they've followed their established protocols and proven the truth of a salesman's representations beyond a shadow of a doubt.

     

    I'd love to see BMW make a faster decision to buy a couple hundred thousand batteries a year. After all, that would be $50 to $60 million in revenue for us. Unfortunately BMW looks at it as putting their reputation on the line with $8 to $10 billion of products that will cause no end of grief if they make a mistake.

     

    I want to see a credible path as much as the next guy, but I won't blame the management of my company for the customer's caution and strict adherence to protocol.
    2 Jan, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    WIO,

     

    Yes, this is "an unfair comparison".

     

    I have always liked Mr. Iacocca and particularly liked what he did with Chrysler. First, I suspect that coming from Ford his fortunes were likely well in place. Second, I believe he had reached the 'familial' glass ceiling at Ford and his interest in Chrysler likely had more to do with his ego than with his pocketbook.

     

    I have absolutely no reservation about Mr. Granville's compensation and his personal finances are none of my business. I do believe, as Mr. Peterson has said repeatedly, we are getting a bargain for what he is being paid. More share based compensation could certainly reassure one as to the sincerity of an executive but a man needs to eat, pay the mortgage, pay tuition for children's college etc, etc.

     

    The defense rests.
    2 Jan, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    Well said, Geo.

     

    I, too, am giving my vote of confidence to Mr. Granville today with a bid for 40K more shares to start my new year. I have now been averaging down for 24 months, and have never sold a single share.

     

    A very dear friend who is no longer with us used to always say, "Life is too short to drink bad wine."

     

    It is also too short to bitch and whine.
    2 Jan, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (923) | Send Message
     
    “More share based compensation could certainly reassure one as to the sincerity of an executive but a man needs to eat, pay the mortgage, pay tuition for children's college etc, etc.”

     

    Geopark, all of your points well taken. To clarify, I don’t expect TG to forego his salary. But I would like to see some kind of gesture(s) on his part (such as foregoing bonuses for top management at this time) that would indicate they understand the severity of Axion’s current financial vulnerability.

     

    I would also like to see CC’s start on time; I would like to see TG with a clear list of talking points that DIRECTLY address head on what he could easily assume would be CC’s participants' most pressing questions and concerns. I would like to hear him talk crisply and with confidence, instead of starting meetings late and appearing to want to avoid answering tough (and legitimate) questions. — I groan when I think about the possibility he projects the same kind of energy with potential strategic or financial partners that he does when he talks to Axion shareholders.

     

    For a long time I was onboard with TG and consistently gave him the benefit of the doubt after he came up short on his own performance metrics. I’ve now reached the point of feeling foolish for doing so, because he doesn’t like to explain why these metrics were not met, and how things will be different going forward. I don’t want to hear some kind of shallow rah rah cheer when things are very difficult, and I would like him to show a LOT more appreciation and consideration for Axion shareholders who have not always been well served.

     

    I guess some will perceive this as bitchin or whinin. I think it has more to do with expecting a little more respect than shareholders have been given for far too long. Can anybody say with certainty that TG places shareholders' interests above his own?
    2 Jan, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    Yes, John. I'm also weary of it. I think some people are simply mad at themselves becasue they have lost money so far and a way to make themselves feel better about their decisions is to redirect the blame to others.

     

    I did a lot of DD before putting a lot of money into Axion. I checked out Tom Granville. One of the criteria I look at when investing in any company is the top guy. I look for a strong horse but I also want a jockey that can take him to the finish line. I believe TG can do that. I think I am probably down about $200K at this point with Axion. Do I wish I had waited? You betcha. Am I mad? Absolutely not. Getting mad doesn't do me any good. Would I change management at Axion? Same answer. No way. They have done nothing to demonstrate to me that they are not doing their best to make the company a success.

     

    The talk about banding together and trying to do something about management is hilarious. Best laugh I have had in a while. Good luck with that.

     

    Maybe we should start a new concentrator where we can go back to a discussion about the technology and its possible applications, rather than blathering on about how the management sucks.
    2 Jan, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    WiO: "Can anybody say with certainty that TG places shareholders' interests above his own?"

     

    I do not see it as either/or TG or shareholders' interests. I expect him to place the health and interests of the company above shareholders, and to balance his own needs with those of his responsibility to the company, and thus to the shareholders. In my estimation, he has done this well for a decade, and there is no indication that he will not continue to do so.
    2 Jan, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    Thanks WIO,

     

    I agree with you about the nature of the CC's. Starting on time is NOT an issue to me but cutting short the question and answer period is a real slap in the face to shareholder owners as well as non-shareholders who are interested in the company as a potential investment vehicle which could be supportive of share price.

     

    I sensed less confidence in Mr.Granville's voice in the last CC than previously and frankly, this is a concern for me. As I said elsewhere today, a change in leadership before significant sales have taken place would be a big red flag.

     

    Mr.Granville has kept the company in our hands to date (albeit diluted and sharply down in share price) and this is no small accomplishment. In this way as well as in the general advance from a R&D to a 'manufacturing' company, Mr. Granville has indeed served shareholder interests and earned his salary. In weaker hands I have no doubt that this company/technology would belong to someone else and legacy shareholders would have been mostly or completely left out in the cold.
    2 Jan, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    "this is how our new CFO will think - and that unlike his predecessor he will be less inclined to keep TG salary and perks going at the expense of doing the right thing for the company".

     

    But Trego is part of the board.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    raleigh's post above got me thinking about the negativity expressed here and how it all seems to boil down to missed deadlines/projections. The worry is that when something fails to happen by a projected deadline that the cause must be incompetence or dishonesty. Now we have speculation that a DOE grant application's redactions is not to keep trade secrets secure but to nefariously keep investors in the dark. While not entirely impossible, that's called paranoia.

     

    As for deadline's being missed, I'll tell a personal story for those with the patience to read it. In 1995 I decided to not pursue a career and instead have part time jobs doing whatever suited me at the time. But I knew it was a dead end unless I had some kind of financial edge, so I bought a rundown 2 family home to live cheaply and rent out one unit. The place was a complete disaster and the price of $18,000 reflected that.

     

    I'm stubborn enough and I like challenges and control over things enough that I vowed to do all the renovation work on it myself that I possibly could. Talk about naive. At the time I had done zero prior remodeling work; I didn't even own any power tool. Every room needed an overhaul, either a gutting or major renovation of absolutely every surface. Painting prep time, that is when the surface was salvageable, was incredible due to so many layers of simply gobbed on heavy paint. Nothing in the place had been updated hardly in nearly 100 years and everything seemed jerry-rigged. I typically could not just lay new flooring but had to do extensive work on warped or uneven subfloors. I had to strip a century of roofing off and redeck the roof from scratch before shingling. I could go on and on.

     

    Naively I originally thought I would work on the place several hours a day plus every weekend and be done in 3 years. Sounded like a good number at the time. I slaved on it 60 hrs a week for the first several years and accomplished a tremendous amount, yet it seemed that much more still remained to be done than I had done. My pace slowed, but I continued to put in a lot of time working on it for many more years. Of course I had 2 to 3 part time jobs and some other activities but work on the place was one of my primary occupations. There's renovation, but then there's repairs and maintenance too.

     

    I had had no idea how very old, long neglected homes could have problems that were so much more difficult than new homes. Sometimes due to prior owner's failing to do an ounce of prevention, I had to do not a pound of cure but seemingly a ton!

     

    Folks, it's 2014 and there's still some original renovation on this one house I haven't gotten to yet! Considerable. 19 years in. It's not due to not working hard or fast enough or incompetence etc. Anybody witnessing what I've done would not find my efforts or abilities wanting, I guarantee it. It just takes a long, long time in man hours to renovate every inch of a run down house and even though I've learned to be more generous with my estimates of how long a job will take, despite a hundred or more major projects under my belt, I STILL seem to underestimate how long a job will take. So this whole multi decade experience has given me some real perspective about projections and deadlines.

     

    Now when I know something is really tough to complete and there is some real trail blazing to be done, I tend to give good people slack as to when. From all that I've heard Axion is good people.
    2 Jan, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: Excellent post. Patience, even more than folks may think reasonable, is needed for some things.

     

    Getting old industries to adopt something way different than what they've traditionally had may be one of these "patience" things.

     

    Like you, just missing doesn't make me think of dishonesty.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1597) | Send Message
     
    RA-

     

    Building a race car from scratch taught me the same lessons. I do not know how many times, in the past, I yelled from the garage..."OK. I'll be done with this fitting in 20 minutes...put the food on the table"...only to be working on the same fitting the next Saturday.

     

    There is no doubt that things take time. Some things take more time than is imaginable.

     

    That said, and I truly thank you for the story:
    1)About TG-I do not believe TG is a good communicator...and that creates no end of problems here. I do not believe he is dishonest. I do believe he is naive concerning the effects of what he communicates by his actions. I also believe he is naive about all that it takes to effectively run a company of this size. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to easily integrate experience regarding his communication issues, and learn from them. and
    2) Re the Board-The Board of a small company will, too often...if not inevitably... ride the current CEO to bankruptcy.

     

    I've been on the Board of several developmental/early production companies similar to AXPW. It is an interesting dynamic/group process.

     

    In my limited experience, when there are problems meeting corporate goals, first there are grumblings among Board members, then the Board splits eventually into sub-groups.

     

    The Chairman has a lot of power.

     

    If the Chairman supports the CEO/current management the grumblings continue and get louder but nothing changes. If things continue to go very slowly, the groups become more polarized, but it always comes down to who has the most shares. The argument about the cost/benefit of changing horses in mid stream are continuously argued and unless the is mal-feasence there is no answer that satisfies both sides.

     

    Absence mal-fesence, It always comes down to who controls the share count, inside and outside the Board.

     

    I could go on. But, my point is that the Board is typically not running the Company in the way that gets discussed here or thought of in general. It comes down to who holds the majority of shares. Did I just repeat that for the 3rd time?

     

    All this said, I'm still hanging in...there is no point to sell at these prices. I believe in the battery...and it does take more time than we can imagine to bring a revolutionaly product to bear fruit when you are on the outside trying to break in and take $$ from everyone on the inside.

     

    And, is it possible the old saw is playing out in front of us as more people here become discouraged. The saw: The change in direction of price per share comes about the point when there is the most discouragement.

     

    
    2 Jan, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    "The saw: The change in direction of price per share comes about the point when there is the most discouragement."

     

    Hopefully that is the case.
    2 Jan, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    R.A. - I believe Axion is comprised of good people also and heaps of positive speculation has been poured on Axion given that premise.

     

    I also believed that the manufacturing process had been completed when I originally jumped in. Come to find out two years later with a press release that it was not really completed yet. But it is now.

     

    There is a lot of history with Axion over the last couple years and arguments can be made either way on many of the issues presented on this concentrator. Since the bull argument is regularly eloquently presented, I have decided to take the bear argument. For better or for worse and unfortunately, it puts me in a position of speaking against my own book. However, at least I feel I have a better grasp of all of the issues rather than blindly believing the bull argument.

     

    With respect to the investors that follow this concentrator, the bottom line has to be whether their investments will eventually be worth something or not. The "trend" is not currently our friend.

     

    *When the known facts change, so will my opinions.
    2 Jan, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Happy new year to everyone here

     

    I know I don't contribute has much as most here but I do follow and am very aware of the flow of this concentrator. It's becoming a very negative place at times and I feel that being so will bring about what we fear most.

     

    I understand fear can bring about such things at times but all the milestones this company has made it through are the positives that were not given the respect it was due. Sorting out the expectations that are in the companies control and the ones that are not will help ease some tension.

     

    By no means am I feeling the love right now but I have to think along the lines of why would a man bring this company so far to try and sabotage it.

     

    With all that being said lets all try to focus on the positive and get away from the what have you done for me lately routine.

     

    Peace and love
    2 Jan, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I put all the TG attacks in the round bin.

     

    There HAS been a sale to BMW
    There HAS been a sale to NS
    There HAS been a sale to E-Power
    There HAS been a PowerCUBE sold

     

    All to current customers.
    All into potentially big markets.

     

    Those who wish those sales were more current or more recurrent are understandably unhappy with their investment. I get that.

     

    But to "take it out" on TG without offering any specifics of what precise sale TG did or did not make is non-constructive whining and blaming - behaviors most people my age dropped ages ago.

     

    In my opinion, given the recent sales, the attacks also appear premature. That's what I am betting on.
    2 Jan, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. A good dialogue at a time we need it

     

    I appreciate having JP's take on how fortunate we are in having TG (his hire) - and the sacrifices TG made to join AXPW in 2009

     

    "But Trego is part of the board". YES. And TG hand appointed too

     

    Question - do we have a propely functioning Board who understand their responsibilities and are properly arm's-length from management. A Board's primary responsibility is the hiring, monitoring and firing of the senior manager

     

    I do not remember anyone questioning the honesty of TG or the board - and certainly I have not done so - nor would I

     

    I think AXPW is fortunate to have good, well-meaning employees. But one always must ask are they/TG the right people to take the company forward

     

    One gets the impression that a plan was made in 2009/10. The leader is not open to any plan but the one originally set. He wants to see it through (perhaps even if it is not/was not the best plan)

     

    Things have changed since 2009. Much of it productive. Clearly not enough of it market and customer centered on low hanging fruit - and certainly not with any care or concern for those who have invested in the company (technology)

     

    I sincerely hope that TG is open to possibilities for financing other than a further round with the pipers. Surely he has learned that lesson now. Undoubtedly Trego has learned. Hopefully our new CFO has taken note of what happened and will fight to see his own options rendered of little value. Same for other senior managers with share options

     

    2014 is go time. 2014 the focus has to be on management and execution and delivering the best strategy to reach the land promised - and with a minimum of dilution from here
    2 Jan, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    I shanghaied Tom Granville to become Axion's CEO in 2005, not 2009.

     

    The board is very independent ans always has been. Mike Kishinevski was drafted by the Russian scientists who did the original technology development work. I talked Howard Schmidt into accepting an appointment because he's one of the top carbon nanotech scientists on the planet. Walker Wainright was drafted by a group of investors that funded the company in 2006. During my time with Axion, board meetings were monthly marathon events rather than perfunctory rubber stamp phone calls. Tom takes his instruction from the board. He doesn't instruct the board.

     

    Trego agreed to join the board because of the hue and cry that arose when he resigned for personal reasons. Turning that event into some sort of board stacking cronyism disregards recent history in favor of fantasy.
    2 Jan, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2113) | Send Message
     
    Hi All,
    These concentrators are a mixed blessing/curse. Constant microscopic inspection of a nano cap company in the valley of death gives us unreasonable expectations while also allowing emotions and tempers to flare because of the fixation. Since these concentrators and the effectiveness of the researchers here are known far and wide, it is no wonder that on going projects are in double secret black status.

     

    Sometimes it is better to let the stock in the sock drawer get dusty and only check the company status every month or so, just for emotional well being.

     

    I enjoy these concentrators for the camaraderie, the knowledge passed on about many different opportunities and technologies.

     

    Bagging on mgt of a nano cap company is a fairly futile process as their primary purpose should be to keep the company solvent and the doors open. Yes, sales are important, but the customer controls when that happens, not the salesman.

     

    We can and have argued long and hard about what stock holders should expect from a nano company, and I think that if the doors aren't kept open there would be no stock holders or profit potential to discuss.

     

    I personally can't complain about where we are presently, a company in the process of going from R&D to commercialization takes time and patience. It's real easy to be a Monday morning armchair Quarterback.

     

    I sure would hate to see a sale lost because of something said here or over aggressiveness of some share holders. JMHO
    2 Jan, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    JP: I disagree with your characterization. I'd be really surprised if the "...hue and cry...." from individual investors such as those on this message board, after Trego's resignation caused the company to add him to the board since TG has proven adept at completely ignoring what goes on here. There is no doubt however that Mr. Trego was hired by Mr. Granville and his filling the board seat of Mr. Averill, a clearly independent presence on the board (remember Mr. Schmidt's description of him at breakfast as the resident curmudgeon), represents a substantial shift in the board.

     

    I wrote a post or two over the summer about Axion's board dynamics and how, for better or for worse, Axion is TG's company. You may think that it is a good or a bad thing, you may see it as a fortunate accident or a calculated response to events, but there is no doubt that over time TG has only increased his control over Axion.
    3 Jan, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    You obviously know the players better than I do so I see no point in continuing this debate.
    3 Jan, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    apm, why do you assume it was any pressure from this message board that persuaded the decision. It could have been other Axion board members, co-workers, influence from larger shareholders that hold 2 or 3 or 4% of the company. Or it could have been TG or any combination of all of the above.

     

    I'm fairly new here so I'm curious as to what your and others objection is to Trego. But not if it will open a can of worms here that was already put in the past. :)
    3 Jan, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (517) | Send Message
     
    Masi: Sure, it could have been some other larger investors. However, it is clear that there are fewer of those now than there were a few years ago. JP calls the previous big institutional investors the "big uglies". They've all sold out over the past few years for various reasons that don't seem to be Axion-specific. While I didn't explicitly state so in my last post, the lack of such investors would seem to represent a power shift in favor of the CEO and board.

     

    I don't know that much about Mr. Trego and my comment wasn't about him specifically. My comment related to the fact that he was hired by Mr. Granville to be CFO under Mr. Granville. Prior to that hiring he had no relationship (that I know of) with Axion. So, one would expect that Mr. Trego wouldn't have been placed on the board if he didn't have a good relationship with Mr. Granville. He is clearly an "insider".

     

    Contrast that with Mr. Averill who was an early investor in the company and renowned for having started three medical device companies that were sold to major industry players. I met Mr. Averill at the board meeting two years ago and he directly acknowledged that he disagreed with management on its focus (he thought they were going after too many niches that didn't play directly enough on the strengths of the PbC).

     

    At the 2013 meeting Mr. Schmidt joked that he might have to play the role of board (I forgot the word he used but it was along the lines of loyal opposition/board curmudgeon) in replacement of Mr. Averill.

     

    So, if you replace a strong independent shareholder with a company insider, it's clear the board flavor has shifted. Of course, John Petersen knows the people involved better than I do but the insider/outsider count of a board is perhaps the most basic data point used to measure the independence of boards.

     

    As a new visitor to this board and presumably new investor in Axion, you should read (as I believe I have) every word JP has written on Seeking Alpha. You will learn a lot and combined with other research, you will eventually begin to form some of your own opinions - as have some of the folks posting in the concentrators. Hopefully, my disagreement with and questioning of JP will always be respectful and will be completely different in tone from the rude bashers and trolls you see on yahoo and his Tesla articles.
    4 Jan, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    One possibility is that Trego was asked/forced to step down out of being held responsible for the PIPE deal turning out to be so disastrous. Not that he necessarily had better financing options; maybe he could have worked a lot earlier and smarter on it, maybe not. We'll never know.

     

    But I never take the "for personal reasons" announcements at face value. Overtly making a CFO resign would be viewed as revealing of something performance based or scandalous; keeping him on the board OTOH would tell shareholders his CFO tenure was not problematic even if it was. It would mend fences with him while creating a better climate to attract the best possible new CFO candidates. Who wants to take a job where your predecessor was overtly fired over debatable performance problems and you could be next, with a permanent scar on your resume.
    4 Jan, 02:35 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    can i double count your response?
    4 Jan, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    But I never take the "for personal reasons" announcements at face value. ummm
    4 Jan, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Warren Buffett’s Words of Wisdom for Investors

     

    I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.
    Read more at http://bit.ly/19T1kre
    4 Jan, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (923) | Send Message
     
    "At the 2013 meeting Mr. Schmidt joked that he might have to play the role of board (I forgot the word he used but it was along the lines of loyal opposition/board curmudgeon) in replacement of Mr. Averill."

     

    Seems odd that Mr. Averill's input is/was not more valued, considering his extensive and highly successful business background. Wonder how things would look to day if they had listened a little more carefully to what he had to say.
    4 Jan, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    filled 54K shares under .101. Still 46K to go. I am planning to buy another 100K at 0.08, if it reached.
    2 Jan, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    You go Barood! Have enjoyed your posting since you joined in.

     

    I'm long since feb2010, met my 100Ksh goal last year, upped and added 25Ksh tuesday@.1031. Always say this is a spec investment for me and while my hope is enough gain to pay off my mortgage I am also prepared for a total loss, god forbid.
    2 Jan, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    I've had the .08 as a magic number in my head as well, at which I would stack my Roth.
    Thing I hate about the thought is that my Roth brokerage has absurd commissions for sub $1 stocks, like 200 to 300 dollars for 100k share trade. Ameritrade I pay a $5 flat commission and they couldn't care less whether it's a penny stock or how many shares. Best brokerage I've ever used.
    2 Jan, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1346) | Send Message
     
    Retired Aviator: you should move your Roth over to Interactive Brokers.... Best decision I ever made...
    3 Jan, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    OR> The Wells Fargo brokerage Roth has one compelling redeeming quality and that is that I get 100 free trades a year in it. A program they no longer offer that I'm grandfathered into. But penny stocks don't count for the free trades.
    3 Jan, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (284) | Send Message
     
    GO! Barood! Congratulations! I hope you are wrong about the .08....but if you are right, I will buy more at that price!
    2 Jan, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Filled completely, and my average down close to .15. Good luck to both of you.
    2 Jan, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    I got another 5K today @.096 at 3:53 P.M. That makes my total 65K, avg cost .208. My goal is 100K. So I hope the price stays right where it's at (around .10) for another 3 months, that will allow me that goal. If I don't make that goal in stated time frame, I will be even happier because that will mean the pps has gone up. When Tom Konrad wrote the pps could fall to .05, I was very excited because I could have hit 100K + much sooner. I am not mad. I am not angry at TG. It is what it is. I understand VERY well what the risks were/are as I continue to add to my position. The only thing that makes me angry/frustrated is that I don't have a lot more cash each month to purchase larger blocks of shares.

     

    In the mean time I have done quite well with GLUU, RFMD, and BLRX. Two of which I expect to double in price from here.

     

    Hint: one's in mobile gaming and the other Bio tech.
    2 Jan, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1143) | Send Message
     
    Any idea when we will hear about Q4?
    2 Jan, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4525) | Send Message
     
    >Patrick Young ... Late March would be my guess.
    2 Jan, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    Axion Power Reports Results For 2012
    March 25, 2013 9:10 AM

     

    http://yhoo.it/1ddJCiY
    2 Jan, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    California’s Roadmap for Balancing the Demand Side of the Grid

     

    http://bit.ly/1ar9LtO
    2 Jan, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    The linked PDF in the article has one of the scariest graphs I've ever seen. Take a look at the "Duck Curve" on page 7 and tell me how anything but storage is going to help shave those peaks.

     

    http://bit.ly/1l4JCc4

     

    I wonder what it looks like on a mid-summer day when loads ramp into the high 40s and low 50s?
    2 Jan, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    It is interesting the actual 2012 to 2013 increase in peak load vs the anticipated load increases in the outgoing years. Pretty aggressive expectations early on.
    2 Jan, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    Looks like a story of Ugly Ducklings and Black Swans!

     

    There will be brownouts and demand that Californians turn off their air conditioners soon.
    2 Jan, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    BTW, IMO having one graph like this understates the problem because the generation and demand inputs are not really one homogeneous thinggy. Also it can't reflect what's really going on with the variables being introduced. Plus one cannot under apply the solutions because x % too little is a disaster so solutions will have to be overrated. And then there's that darn learning curve.
    2 Jan, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mac325
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    The same author has a recent article out there on grid-scale storage that I thought was interesting from the PC perspective:

     

    http://bit.ly/1dNUcyZ
    2 Jan, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Looking at the 'Duck Curve', maybe daytime will be the best time to charge Plug in vehicles
    2 Jan, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    John,(or others) do you know what % of PJM's demand response comes from stored energy? Or is the large scale storage business, business, just about as new as our PbC battery, or is it newer.

     

    I guess what I'm asking is, when Axion was first developing the PbC was load leveling even being considered for the grid? Not just with you guys but in the grapevine in general.

     

    I really don't see any other way out of this solar panel build up and the increased power demand, BUT storage.
    2 Jan, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    I hope Axion's relationship with PJM is a very very cozy one. They do have at least one of our PC's, right?
    2 Jan, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    I see lots of free charging stations offered on site by employers as perqs to take advantage of this. All charged up for the commute home in stop and go traffic so no worries. I think this could really catch on because what one employer offers competitors often follow suit.

     

    I'd like to see the charging stations built with solar aux power and come with an Axion Cube for FM. I think that the State's mandate that solar installations must have battery backup was a huge development for Axion. I was surprised how the market just shrugged that off. Probably just PIPErs overpowering the news.
    2 Jan, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4525) | Send Message
     
    >Masi ... No one has a PowerCube (with the exception of the recent unknown purchaser), but PJM has use of the one at New Castle via the Viridity FR software project. Best I can tell it is analogous to a beta test site. I'm loathe to elevate it to the status of a demonstration because Axion's New Castle PowerCube serves so many various functions. Most of which are internal to Axion. Dark.
    2 Jan, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Thnx DR, I must have confused it with something else. Some branch of the military has one though, doesn't it?
    3 Jan, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    The Navy has a "mini-cube" Energy Hub in their Zero Energy Building in DC:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bDWrls

     

    http://bit.ly/YOSofg
    3 Jan, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4525) | Send Message
     
    >Masi ... The Naval Yard Zero Energy Building I do believe has one. I don't believe it was a full PowerCube. More like a large economy-size (half Cube) storage system like Rosewater had planned to market. It was, if I remember right, for the storage of PV electric from a parking lot installation. What else it might be doing I don't know. The Navy Zero Energy Project seems to have one of everything installed somewhere. No news or updates I'm aware of.
    3 Jan, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Thanx guys..... DRich, It might have been Rosewater that I was confused about but also, in the second paragraph in the first link SM just provided it states.... "Axion Power Chairman & CEO Thomas Granville commented, "Although this is a small project, (the Naval project) in terms of dollars and number of batteries, it is a significant step forward because it comes on the heels of November's ceremonious integration of our full PbC PowerCube onto the PJM network"...... This press release is dated 1/4/12 and I remember reading this back then. I probably bought more shares.

     

    Almost two years to the day has passed and we have no info or stats on the performance of that "mini-cube", and ?what? progress from PJM concerning our PC?..... Is all this under the NDA's?

     

    I guess "ceremonious" is the key word there in TG sentance. "snark" Maybe the significant orders TG mentioned in "not six months" will be the culmination of these two events.
    3 Jan, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Here is something else in respect to PJM and Axion Power PC sales. Does this not count? It's the second paragraph that I want you to pay attention to.
    http://bit.ly/1g7fXet

     

    "NEW CASTLE, Pa., Nov. 13, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Axion Power International, Inc., (OTC QB: AXPW), the developer of advanced lead-carbon PbC® batteries and energy storage systems, announced today that the Company has received a purchase order, along with a substantial down payment, for a PowerCube™ to be commissioned into a solar project. The Cube will provide storage for energy created by the solar panel system and also service the frequency regulation market. The $320,000 purchase order includes batteries, racks, wiring, data communication system and electronics coordination (electronics and power system to be provided by Owner). The project has been in the works for some time and the Company expects to ship all equipment to the site in the current quarter of 2013, with installation to begin immediately.

     

    "Axion's PowerCube has proven its effectiveness and reliability by providing daily frequency regulation and demand response services in the PJM grid utility network for the last two years. PJM is the nation's largest power transmission organization serving more than 58 million people in all or parts of 13 states. The solar storage adaptation of the PowerCube was developed with data extracted from the PJM network model, including the important "frequency regulation market" component."..........

     

    Here's a little about me.
    For twenty five years I worked in the construction industry. About 12 years building roads and the other half building houses. I found that in each profession there was always a particular crew that blew the others away. They had the right system down AND the right men. I say this because installing these PowerCubes is going to have to work the same way. This first order will be the "working out the kinks" kinda thing. It may take a few before they get a system down and the right crew. I wouldn't be surprised if that one crew will be relocated to each site. Once they get it down a second crew will be trained and so on and so on.
    Maybe this will help your patients some, knowing that this will probably be part of the process.
    4 Jan, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2716) | Send Message
     
    John - a couple things about the "Duck Curve":

     

    1. The 2012-2013 shapes show the basic home or household activity peaks surrounding breakfasts and dinners/evenings.

     

    2. One of the ways to reduce and/or minimize those peaks as the duck curve worsens is the standard reduce, reduce, reduce of demand thru energy efficiencies, of which we still have many, and recovery, even within households (especially the 24/7 items such as refrigerators, A/C, yes insulation [attic, walls, hot water heaters, infiltration sealing] and windows even yet today everywhere, and then some of the other demands which cause the household activity peaks such as A/C, hot water, stoves, and yes again LED lighting, etc.).
    Lower household peaks thru better practices and devices. Yes, maybe even some household storage! All inclusive, lower the household peaks.

     

    3. Then there is the city nighttime baseload which becomes the some of the futures duck curve peaks [levels]: like street lighting - bring on the LED's and retire now even the low pressure sodiums as we did for the high pressure sodiums, and the Hg-vapor, etc. [do the same for all of 24/7 or just even nighttime lighting, city wide, streets and buildings. Plus anything else applicable to the city that mirrors household improvements.

     

    Point being, we want to lower 1-2) and 3) as we lower the "Duck Curve" belly; therein keeping the high and lows CLOSE.

     

    4. The other contributor to the nasty looking "remaining" flatter peaks on either side of the duck curve belly is the demand contribution from 24/7 operations such as huge commercial and FACTORIES, or industrial contribution to demand. Just maybe, we will have to revert to the days of old when 24/7 factories, processing plants, etc. with huge MW loads will have to somewhat disengage from the grid and become their own producers of power again. Yup, even cogenerators. Or what some may consider another sort of distributed generation, yet not renewable.

     

    The night time, 24/7 production loads of industry are what will become the new "peak" demands. Actually, they are somewhat flat 24/7 demands becoming accentuated peaks due to the renewable supply contribution. Lower those 24/7 industrial demands.

     

    Again, keep those peaks as close to the lows as possible at we integrate renewables.

     

    As they say, keep your enemies close.

     

    The closer these two are, the less storage becomes to look like a Frankenstein.
    4 Jan, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1614) | Send Message
     
    RE: BMW. Remember that the PbC battery would require redesign of the starter as well as control electronics and computer program. It is likely to face as many delays as the NS-999. However that Axion has bi-weekly meetings with BMW suggests that they are now working on the manufacturing side. If I were to guess, we'd hear something about the program mid-late 2014. Part of the reason for the early PIPE was because one large customer was worried about the financial viability of Axion. Well, the PIPE money lasts until late 2014, so it better not have been for naught!
    2 Jan, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1597) | Send Message
     
    Ranma-

     

    48 Volt Systems for Stop-Start Vehicles and Micro Hybrids is a workshop by Navigant.

     

    "48 Volt Systems for Stop-Start Vehicles and Micro Hybrids
    Stop-start vehicle systems are becoming popular in most regions of the world and the feature is becoming a standard fitment for a few manufacturers in some markets. The latest systems are starting to implement some of the features that were first developed for full hybrid vehicles, such as regenerative braking and electric power assistance. The challenge for OEMs is to get the most efficiency benefits from the smallest cost increment, and some have now concluded that the current 12V electrical system is becoming an inhibitor.

     

    "Growth in light duty 48V systems sales through the end of the current decade will be predominately in Western Europe, mainly because this region is the most aggressive in implementing fuel economy and emissions regulations. The German luxury vehicle manufacturers have collaborated to develop a 48V system that sets the foundation for more capable stop-start systems that will enable other electrification features. The latter features are expected to combine with engine downsizing and other enhancements to increase efficiency without large-scale adoption of full hybrid or plug-in electric capability. Navigant Research forecasts that total global sales for light duty vehicles with 48V electrical subsystems will reach nearly 13.5 million by 2023. It discusses how the German auto mfgs have gotten together to set 48 volt standards."

     

    My belief is that this is the BMW hold-up.

     

    Behind that dam (the 48 holt agreement) is a lot of purchasing power re batteries.
    2 Jan, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, Wouldn't that mean a huge ramp-up of parts say from, lights to electric motors and everything in between? I guess the current manufactures/suppliers of these parts (12V) would get the new (48V) contracts. Any thoughts from my fellow Axionistas?

     

    Always looking for a new investment.

     

    On another note, today FIAT announced the purchase of the remaining % of Chrysler. Might that help the integration of Stop/Start into the U.S. market?
    2 Jan, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1597) | Send Message
     
    Masi-
    That would make sense.
    2 Jan, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1614) | Send Message
     
    Can't the PbC be made to 48V?
    3 Jan, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Pessimism is a very good thing, I always run away from optimism. We need more capitulation and I want my 100K at 0.08.

     

    My uncle invested in a start-up that took 12 years for the story to develop when he was expecting a turn around in 2 years. Prediction is a common disease in this society, complex systems are hard to predict.

     

    Probabilistic thinking is very important to deal with risks in complex systems. So many good things can happen to Axion and your only risk is the exponential decay in the share price which has already decayed 97%, that's a lot of cushion under your pillow.

     

    There is nothing linear in nature, and the share price of Axion will experience a nonlinear response once confidence comes to the story, it will not wait till revenues come along.

     

    Having said all this, we are in the worst episode of confidence damage that ever happen to this country in terms of financial speculation. 2008 crises is a confidence crisis and still the country hasn't recovered from it. That is not Axion problem.

     

    2 Jan, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1631) | Send Message
     
    "Pessimism is a very good thing,"

     

    Just $20 mm buys this company right now, baby!
    2 Jan, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    " 2008 crises is a confidence crisis and still the country hasn't recovered from it. That is not Axion problem."
    I have mentioned or reminded the followers/posters here of that fact a few times.
    2 Jan, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Thanks for the clarification on the Boards independence

     

    2014 the time for them to demonstrate it

     

    Ask the tough questions.

     

    Demand a hard look at alternatives

     

    Shape and monitor instructions to management
    2 Jan, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    dlmca, what makes you think that isn't already so?

     

    This is a new technology, with new uses and therefore, new infrastructure demands. Whole new machinery and lathes and molding machines have to be built to make the accompanying parts. Probably billions of dollars just in re-tooling.

     

    This is not like Apple where people are waiting in long lines when a new phone or tablet is announced.
    2 Jan, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    Masi, I think that may be overstating the case a bit. To the extent of the specifics that we know, the PbC embodies a certain collection of characteristics that make it somewhat of a different animal in the battery space. But it is not completely foreign. I believe Dr. Buiel stated that it behaves in a circuit basically as a battery in series with a capacitor. Its main distinguishing characteristic therefore is that it has a more steeply sloping discharge curve with respect to voltage than is typical with other batteries. This has both good and bad aspects, which must be both accommodated and/or advantaged by the application as required. So yes, I think the larger point is valid, that to some extent, those fledgling applications best suited to the PbC really do have to, in some sense, be "grown" up around the PbC, and tailored for it, rather than being simple drop-ins, but I think to say that that's going to take "whole new machinery and lathes and molding machines" and "billions in retooling", is probably a stretch. Certainly different power electronics and circuit designs will be involved, but not I would think, anything overly exotic. Just my sense of it. Others may of course know better...
    2 Jan, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    481086, you have good sense, controlling voltage and amps is pretty simple design change with off the self electrical parts, for the most part; the one I can't get my head around is AC with the engine off, electrically anyway.
    3 Jan, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9779) | Send Message
     
    Enjoying all the pro and con and middle road confab today. Great stuff!

     

    It's still my contention that Axion will never be a viable concern until "significant" recurring sales have occurred, or that recurring sales are in sight. But how will anyone, outside of TG and a few other Axion employees, knowing that recurring sales are "in sight" will ever become public knowledge until contracts have been inked? Until those contracts have already been signed, and must by law be materially announced, and then will no longer be "NDA-ed," anything representing (excluding ePower) "in sight" or forthcoming recurring sales will remain out of sight.

     

    As Thotdoc wrote above, my belief, and has been for likely over a year now, about how recurring sales via BMW has seemed to come to all but a complete stop, is that automakers as well as battery makers like JCI are turning toward 48V configurations; hence until I hear that Axion is also working on a 48V battery system, I think Axion's partnership with BMW will likely never come to fruition.

     

    However, there's always that seesaw conumdrum I have to live with by presently owning zero shares of Axion Power. I'm greatly fearful about the next cap raise, and getting once again pummeled.

     

    But equally stressful, and toward those who have held on, I offer you this: (PLUG) has risen from 79 cents on Dec. 2, to close at $2.38 today. An almost 300% pop in one month. If somehow, from somewhere, Axion can land a partner who will provide recurring sales, I would expect Axion to have a far higher percentage-wise pop in mere days, rather than even the short span of one month.

     

    So the debate continues...

     

    Will Axion be able to ramp sales, even a few larger one-off PowerCube sales, to stave off the next cap raise, until significant recurring sales are announced?

     

    Or, will Axion continue the trend of under delivering and underperforming, making the possibility for another even more brutal PIPE deal have to happen?

     

    I'll have to agree with those that think that there's LOTS of sideline money ready to pounce if/when any significant announcement is made. I KNOW there are others, waiting...waiting...all while paying very close attention from the sidelines.

     

    Count me as one of them.
    2 Jan, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    I look at it this way Maya, even when investors go away out of fear they don't go far or forget their homies.
    2 Jan, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9779) | Send Message
     
    JP: I didn't sell out of fear, I sold because of all too obvious trends that kept never-ending trending. I sold because the Axion story had changed, from the story I had bought into, dramatically so.

     

    If I had sold out of fear, I would have likely sold far faster than over 12 trading sessions during mediocre volume. Share price never varied much more than a penny while I sold.

     

    But homies are homies...and I like that trend.
    2 Jan, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    John, ;D
    -
    Maya, I don't think BMW is going to look for Axion to deliver a 48 VDC package if they want it for a future programs. They will ask them to right sized 12 VDC or 16 VDC batteries based on their storage needs. They already understand fully if this is suitable for their future plans at 48 VDC based on the testing they have done thus far.

     

    I hope they are interested in a dual 12 VDC package because 48 VDC is further out.

     

    Axion is a storage technology provider. BMW will take care of the integration plans themselves . It's their expertise and they like it kept quiet other than the groups they join to help scale the industry or manage their competitive needs.
    2 Jan, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9779) | Send Message
     
    Indy: You know far more about this than I do. But if I am correct, all the wiring would have to change for everything from sensors, to windshield wiper motors, to the entire make up of the car's computer, and all that it does.

     

    Then there's spatial considerations, as well as the added cost.

     

    A huge problem with the greatness of the PbC and all that it can do, is that BMW, or any car maker, will have to adapt the electronics of an entire car to what the PbC can do, rather than having the PbC adapt to it.

     

    Another (expensive) Catch 22 we've all known about for sometime.
    2 Jan, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1597) | Send Message
     
    iin-

     

    Will you say a little more about the dual 12s or 16s vs 48VDC...and the 48 being further out?

     

    Thank you,

     

    G
    2 Jan, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    Maya and Thotdoc, I'll add some thoughts in the am on the topic as I see it.
    2 Jan, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Maya, you described it better than I did but that's what I meant by re-tooling. I don't know if a 48V motor will fit into a 12V casing and if the same molding machines can be re-fitted to make the different size plastics or if a 48V battery will fit into a 12V battery tray, or if 48V lamps will work in a 12V socket because of temperature changes etc. I do know late model cars have absolutely No wasted space under the hood so slight changes might have to made there or in the trunks for the second battery. This all costs money.
    3 Jan, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, for 48 VDC someone could go with 4 12 VDC batteries in series or 3 16 VDC batteries. Not much difference to the system other than the 3 battery configuration would reduce the external connections required by 2 due to these being done internal to the batteries themselves. The way that the cells balance, king in a string, is not effected as this characteristic is inherent to the hybrid nature of the cell design.

     

    Concerning the dual battery 12 VDC system vs a 12 VDC/48 VDC architecture the reasoning for both rhymes but they have far different challenges. The primary motivation is that we, the target audience, want more and more gadgets in our vehicles that require electric energy. And the industry wants you to have them because that's where they make their money. Also, at the same time, governments are supplying motivation, primarily though regulation, to reduce the emissions which requires higher efficiency. One of the least costly ways to do this is to electrify certain functions getting them off the engine, making them smart / controllable and then reducing the size and thus mass of everything in stages. Can't do it all at once due to cost/risk/capacity change over etc.

     

    So if we look at what we need to provide more electricity the easiest way is to just keep the voltage at 12 VDC and make the battery bigger and the alternator / generator larger as well. And this has been going on for some time. But now we are still seeing a trend in increased electrical energy requirement and the darn government expects progress on fuel economy. So we just introduce SS in markets that recognize it. A good band aid for a wee while with little added cost. Batteries don't last and the customer gets the short end of the stick but it buys some time to go to the next step.

     

    However the larger battery and alternator/generator just isn't good enough as indicated. So they can go with a second storage device, battery/capacitors/hyb... and support more functions at a higher level. And it's best to, instead of just having one stiffer/higher rated electrical distribution network it's better to have two. This is because as you introduce things like SS the large inductive load of turning on the starter puts all kinds of transients on the electrical bus. Some of the things like microprocessors which are all over the vehicle can't tolerate this dirty power. Also the high current drops the voltage down and certain threshold voltages have to be maintained or these processors will have to reboot. So it's better to go with dual storage devices on two buses and to keep one of them cleaner via the devices chosen to be driven by the one bus and other electronic means. Some of this is done today and it is still ramping.

     

    The next step to increase electrical energy even further while reducing mass and to increase the efficiency of the vehicle is to move to higher voltages. This however is a nightmare as everything in the industry is run off 12 VDC. Also as you introduce higher voltages, as you switch things on / off and especially inductive loads like motors, the transients on the power buss and the magnetic fields become a nightmare. This for all the 5 VDC devices and for communications equipment like sat. navigation, telephone and radio signals which are all very weak signals that don't want all this noise. Oh and electrical contacts hate switching dc because of the energy dissipated across the contacts as they close.

     

    So the best way to transition to 48VDC and be rational about what you change, bang for the buck, is to maintain the split architecture and keep the 12 VDC bus clean and for lower power requirement devices and to move the higher energy requirements to 48 VDC. This allows the "Biggies" to go with smaller wiring / motors plus it just so happens they are mostly located near the engine so you can keep the rest of the vehicle pretty much as it is without all the electrical and magnetic noise. Then you can slowly move devices like power steering, braking, air conditioning etc. off the engine and to electric motors. BTW this has been done for some vehicles in the past like the Toyota Crown but without a certain level of scaling it's very expensive so in some cases it was abandoned.

     

    So this is hind of what's happening. Trying to stuff 9 million pounds of detail in a 1 pound bag and I'm not a great writer!

     

    Maya, You're right. A whole bunch needs to change but to mange this and pay for it while reducing risk they will phase it in. The industry hates added cost and especially risk. GM says the customer wants well under a year payback for efficiency improvements.
    3 Jan, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2716) | Send Message
     
    Maya -

     

    ePower may be the most visible near target for some demand sales (which won't fill up New Castle quickly), other than a cube or two for some added volume.

     

    BUT, the announcement of a major battery mfgr agreement would satisfy the rest of the pensive anticipation way ahead of any announced major sales in automotive requiring mfg beyond New Castle (a battery or two per pop, but 1000's of pops).

     

    NSC? A good ramp addition for NewCastle, nearterm (1000's of batteries at a pop? Vis 56?). Could save the financing future of AXPW, if not the current stockholders, near term.

     

    So, I'm looking forward to the announced big battery mfgr joint venture of sorts - one of two of them at a minimum being worked on, very silently.
    3 Jan, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2716) | Send Message
     
    Maya - re the 12v-48v systems:

     

    Just as when I put my street rod together in the 50's: the existing 6v system remained 6v; the 12V required for the big engine got the 12V starter battery. For the 6V power source, I center-tapped the top of the 12V battery with a screw and wire into the lead intercell connector; so 3 of the 6 cells got worked a little more than the other.

     

    Caused a little imbalance to the battery which I never saw.

     

    Point being; heavier wiring and higher voltage systems will only be demanded and utilized when higher currents are demanded. The laws of i2R heating have not changed. Nor has P=ie, nor E=iR.

     

    Power conditioning for high peaking currents (100's-1000 amps) as in braking regeneration is one thing, continuous and variable running amps for electric drive motors is another whether a loco or etruck with both of the forementioned conditions (and yes, the hybrids and electrics power circuits fall in here somewherer), and peak starting currents for the ICE's isolated circuit, and then come the "new" higher hotel loads and finally, a conglomeration of misc low voltage, low power circuits with their own harness.

     

    Ramblings....I really just wanted to mention my hot rod. Happy NEw Year.
    3 Jan, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1597) | Send Message
     
    iin-
    Thank you,

     

    G
    3 Jan, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    ii, that was a great post. That is what I meant about the cost when I said "billions". I think the only way for the Auto mfgs to save money is if they collaborate on some parts of the the design. It will cost each of them a separate fortune to design and produce the new parts. Some of it may have to be "universal" as you stated the 12V system ended up being. But many many auto companies went out of business in the early 20th century before that was so.

     

    I understand that cars are a very personal item and the auto manufacturers use that fact with great success to sell their product, but I think a major change such as duel electrical systems merits some collaboration. Maybe I'm just thinking practical where competition is king, and the driving force is to be first and the best.
    4 Jan, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    Masi, you're right on the money concerning the types of collaboration that occur in the industry to allow for certain technologies to be birthed. Sometimes these groups are formed along regional lines, sometimes economic lines, sometimes just industrial lines and some of the larger initiatives are pretty much industry/government initiatives that are global in scale. All makes sense when you think about the economic and environmental impact of the decisions being made. Sometimes in the world we fight like h%ll and sometimes we know we have to work together.
    4 Jan, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    Directionally correct on the fuel savings it appears. Need to dig deeper on the tech.

     

    IVECO offerings

     

    Diesel – Electric Series Hybrid Traction

     

    "Ideal for passenger transport in urban areas without limitations on range is the Diesel-Electric series hybrid power train; essentially an electric traction system with an on-board battery charger. Sharing the energy saving features of the pure electric versions such as kinetic energy recovery, the series hybrid power train achieves fuel consumption savings in excess of 30% compared to a conventional Diesel engined vehicle, depending on vehicle mission. Ideally suited to urban public passenger transport operating on fixed routes permits an optimised calibration of the power train to achieve the greatest savings. Iveco is active in this field since the mid 1990s with many examples of both 6m, 7.4m and 12m buses operating in French, Italian and Spanish cities. 6m versions use a 1.2 litre Diesel engine with 43 kW electric motor while 7.4m and 12m versions use a 2.8m Diesel engine with 150kW electric motor for 7.4m versions and 164kW electric motor for 12m versions."

     

    http://bit.ly/1a4KKbk
    2 Jan, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    The only discussion I could find at your link is a parallel hybrid. Are you sure they offer a series drivetrain?
    2 Jan, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    "Diesel-Electric series hybrid power train" ... where have I heard that idea before?
    2 Jan, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    John, I read the statement I posted to be separate from the parallel hybrid offering that they comment on in the same introductory page. As I indicated I will have to dig deeper but in my initial read it seemed to be a pure series power train to me. I'll let you know if I find more in the am and I'd appreciate the same if you dig around and find more detail.
    2 Jan, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2275) | Send Message
     
    Pull the other one. It's got bells on.

     

    Ford creates plug-in car that runs on sunlight
    http://usat.ly/1a4PZb3
    2 Jan, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3360) | Send Message
     
    Totally with you SM. Don't know whether to laugh or cry. How telling, and embarrassing, that such an article, with such a headline, could evidently pass *any* tech editor's smell test.
    2 Jan, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    01/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 135, MinTrSz: 125, MaxTrSz: 200000, Vol: 1429453, AvTrSz: 10589
    Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1003
    # Buys, Shares: 61 481975, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1008
    # Sells, Shares: 74 947478, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1000
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.97 (33.72% "buys"), DlyShts 115332 (08.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.17%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -5.88%, 0.47%, -2.80%, 42.45% and 157.21% respectively. Price spread today was excessive – 11.46%. Note the volumes of the higher price ranges in the trade breakdown by time below though.

     

    On the traditional TA front I'm sorry to report that we closed below that longer-term descending resistance we had managed to remain above the past two days. This puts us below both potential support lines - both descending. All the oscillators I watch are weakening.

     

    I'd mentioned a couple times that this recovery from new all-time lows seemed slower than in the past and said I wasn't not encouraged. Here we are with a close only 1/10th of a penny above the all-time low established just five days past.

     

    The full details and additional thoughts are in the blog here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Jan, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (262) | Send Message
     
    All,

     

    I'd like to start by saying that I greatly appreciate the various view points discussed today. It is this comparing and contrasting of investment theses that makes us contemplate our own decisions and ultimately makes us better as investors. I can take things I learn from this board and apply the due diligence gathering techniques to other investments. But I digress. For my own two cents on Axion (though it may not even be worth a penny) I'll say that I look at Axion as more of a gamble than anything, although I suppose that's the case with most nano caps. It's like I keep betting on 13 on the roulette wheel, but this time I have a small reason to believe that I know something the casino doesn't (thanks to this board). I'm here because I believe that whatever happens to Axion, the tech will make money for those that can buy at these levels; the market cap is insane to me. As I venture more into my own thoughts, I find that I also think the tech will make money for legacy share holders. It may not even happen by 2015 but I've been more encouraged than discouraged by TG & co. recently. I've never discussed the PIPE on this board and find no need to rehash it here. To me there are two big questions and whichever you find more plausible should shape your outlook on this stock.

     

    1. Will TG secure a reasonable round of financing for the next "phase" of the company?

     

    2. Is it likely that substantial - and each person must define substantial for themselves in this context - progress has been made toward significant (see caveat about substantial) sales, and all this without us hearing too much about it.

     

    Note that I don't mean sales explicitly, simply the sort of progress that results in partnerships in short order.

     

    To be honest, my answer to question 1 is that I have no idea. And that's why my answer to number 2 has me buying more stock. I believe that enough progress has been and will be made that question number one will become a moot point. When the partnerships and RFQs shed this iron curtain we call NDA's, I think it will reveal more than we would have imagined six months ago. And I also think that this majestic - okay, maybe just long overdue - revealing is closer than our next capital raise. Meaningful partnership(s) - read tier I supplier(s) - will do wonders for this stock. The question is when.

     

    Please, read this comment as solicitation for opposing view points. That's how we all learn to look more objectively.

     

    tl;dr - I'm bullish on $AXPW at $0.10, tell me why I shouldn't be.
    2 Jan, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    @isthisone: The answer to 1 depends on number 2 happening quickly. So really, 2 is the only thing that will make this a good investment for 2014.
    3 Jan, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (262) | Send Message
     
    ngs,

     

    Would you put strategic partnership in the same category as number 2? Or do you think that 1 could be secured via a strategic partnership without having a clear path to sales? I guess, more pointedly, who could Axion target for strategic partnerships? As I'm asking this, I'm realizing that a strategic partnership would likely indicate a clear path to sales and my first question is really just a red herring. It's all about making something tangible happen and now.
    3 Jan, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    IMO, there is a strategic partner in place as TG stated they had made batteries off site. It's only a guess that maybe the final terms are not set or that the signing is waiting for the big order.

     

    The talk earlier about the EU setting standards for the 48v system is a good sign to me....other than JCI has a prototype 48v system in place and showcased it in a BMW, which IMO was a shot across AXPW's bow.
    There is no guarantee that AXPW gets BMW, it's still a "show me the money" deal. Because:
    I don't trust how ownership will be going forward if someone bails them out or another PIPE deal followed by a reverse split, all this is possible & maybe probable
    3 Jan, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    A couple weeks ago Iindelco posted a link to this presentation from Infineon Technologies.

     

    http://bit.ly/1f8Cnvs

     

    Slide 14 in the presentation shows that 48-volt will basically be a non-event for the rest of this decade and only represent 7.5% of the 2019 market. While there's no question 48-Volt is a coming technology, it's basically a third-generation stop-start technology.

     

    The second generation systems that have to move beyond flooded and AGM will be the real sweet-spot for the PbC.
    3 Jan, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    If you need more than one reason to do something, just don't it. Don't be bogged down by over thinking something, you can't control the randomness of complex systems. In large it is deterministic, but locally it is random.

     

    My thesis is simple about Axion, the more distributed energy generation becomes and the more things are electrified, the more opportunities for Axion.

     

    There is so much evidence that the technology in Axion batteries is badly needed for these applications, just let it work out itself.

     

    There is so much going on that would help alleviate the severity of dilution, if it happened again. Plus when you have 50-100 bagger, you either add little after dilution or simply give up some of your expected returns.

     

    The thing I won't do is wait for confirmation because I believe it will be too late in a world of winner takes it all.
    3 Jan, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (341) | Send Message
     
    Masi

     

    On the Board - "what makes you think that isn't already so?"

     

    I have no evidence that they are not asking the tough questions and acting at arms length and in the best interest of the company and its shareholders

     

    On the other hand I have no real evidence that they are either.

     

    Hoping this year we will see evidence that they are doing what they shouldlove to know that they have asked management for a set of financing options going forward and that final answers will rest at the Board level. They are shareholders too
    3 Jan, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    dlmca, "On the other hand I have no real evidence that they are either."

     

    My evidence is: the company is still an ongoing concern
    the company has no debt
    the company has more than doubled it's
    it's prospects from 2012
    the public is investing more than $40,000 a day
    into Axion's technology
    the U.S. states and foreign Gov's are passing
    new laws requiring storage
    we know E-Power will build more test tractors
    we know the population of the planet will be
    10 Billion pretty soon all demanding energy

     

    These are all concrete things. What you don't know is that Axion will be one of only battery suppliers from here on. (slight mocking there but there's always hopium)
    3 Jan, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    With the below .10 price failure, what does it tell us if the PIPE doesn't want cash? Since extremely low expectations are currently priced in, where will the price go from here?
    3 Jan, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's market action looked like the PIPErs have reloaded their share inventory. The only way that could happen is if they elected to take stock instead of cash for the January payment. If these guys start taking cash instead of stock trading volumes will plummet. As long as volume stays high, we'll know what their choices were.
    3 Jan, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    That is probably a good inference unless Axionistas start unloading, but I think most of the Axionistas that are still holding are battle tested and look at holding stock like holding an option without a set expiration date. Therefore, I don't see much selling pressure coming from Axionistas that still hold at these levels.
    3 Jan, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (799) | Send Message
     
    I would think that if they don't want cash, they expect to get value from owning the stock. If the people that have driven the price down expect value, that bodes well for the future.
    3 Jan, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1346) | Send Message
     
    >>>>>&g... I don't see much selling pressure coming from Axionistas that still hold at these levels.<<<<...

     

    Stefan: I go back and forth on that idea myself. I still think we've lost more than a few axionistas along the way. I suspect, they quietly sold over several days (like Maya) and we will never even know they left. Maya being the exception.
    3 Jan, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    So I figured I would do a search for Axion stuff this morning to see if anything worthwhile popped up and I found this as a link and had to laugh.

     

    "The World's Most Enduring Myths and Legends Explored"

     

    Unfortunately, it only linked to some site requesting an email and password.
    3 Jan, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Jesse Livemore said: "the big money is made in the waiting."

     

    I read this in a SA article on Suncor this morning and I think it fits 2 stocks I hold. The first stock is Kandi, which I started buying 3 years ago. While it didn't do much for most of the time I held it, over the last week Kandi has gone up almost $6 / share. My gains on that cover my considerable paper loss on Axion.

     

    I fully expect Axion to erupt upwards at some point similar to what Kandi is now doing. Whether it is this year or in the next couple of years, Axion's technology will start filling a need and the spreading recognition will create a positive feedback loop benefiting us all. While there are many potential catalysts, I think e-Power alone may be enough to get this feedback loop going.

     

    One makes the big money by being well ahead of the market.
    3 Jan, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1537) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations Treehill!!!
    3 Jan, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    Treehill,

     

    I agree with your premise that big money is made if you are ahead of the market with the caveat -- if stock isn't being printed like throw away coupons in the Sunday paper.

     

    Kandi has only 37M shares outstanding and doesn't appear be issuing PIPE(s) for operating cash - a very different situation to Axion currently.
    3 Jan, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • jmcheln
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Treehill: what you wrote... ( Re: your own personal situation and experience w/ axpw and kndi ) could have been written by me. We share that same situation and experience. Although battled and bruised over the last 4 or 5 as an Axpw shareholder .. I recently added last week because I think the tide will eventually turn. GLTA -- Jmch
    3 Jan, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1842) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Treehill. I bought a small amount of KNDI a while ago as a lottery ticket and when it tanked I held onto it out of laziness and curiosity. It's so small I don't even watch it much anymore. Or at least I hadn't been. S this is a nice little surprise Christmas present for me.

     

    Thanks again.

     

    D
    3 Jan, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2590) | Send Message
     
    Interesting s/s stop article from a seemingly Detroit automotive beat writer -

     

    http://nbcnews.to/1gxrt3M
    3 Jan, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1614) | Send Message
     
    BMW to announce new models in a week.
    3 Jan, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (656) | Send Message
     
    PIPE agreement amended to .09 fail pps. Did not take cash payment. Best I can tell in a quick read.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cs5UfM
    3 Jan, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    Two additional important items JVeal.

     

    80% instead of 85% of VWAP used and pre-payment cut in half to $125K, except for Parsoon Special Situations.

     

    So we husband cash a bit longer and issue more shares as price drops.

     

    Correction: no change in cash situation - number of shares issued would be reduced as compared to $250K payment.
    HardToLove
    3 Jan, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    I am having a blond moment, I understand the 80% VWAP, now the get shares cheaper....and the price can now drop to .09....

     

    But explain the "prepayment cut in half" ? And what did Parsoon do?

     

    So now we know the PIPERS are going to enforce or renegotiate the contract when it fails to meet the criteria.
    3 Jan, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    So much for the thought that the PIPErs wouldn't jump all over that clause. Mo money said the Wall Street Mob. And then when it breaks 9 cents. Mo money said.....
    3 Jan, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29994) | Send Message
     
    Prior to the amendment there were two $1 million payments spread among four PIPErs that fell due after 2/3/13. The amendment reduces the net amount of those installments to $625,000 each ($250 for Parsoon and $125 for each of the other three), which means the shares that were just issued should be the last major block of stock. Reducing the last two installments will leave Axion with about $500,000 to deal with after the last payment date because of previously reported "accelerated conversions."

     

    The last 10-Q discloses that $75,000 was released from the restricted cash accounts in connection with the issuance of 625,000 shares for "accelerated conversions." The MD&A discloses that an additional $1.137,500 was released from the restricted cash accounts after the end of Q3, which presumably represents two scheduled releases of $500,000 and "accelerated conversions" of $137,500.

     

    I don't see any practical way to nail down the specifics until the 10-K is filed, but I'll keep searching for clues.
    3 Jan, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9245) | Send Message
     
    John, Could it be that they are, for an extra discount, allowing for more time to sell the balance of the stock due to the liquidity issue driving the stock price down. Well 3 of the 4 PIPErs anyway.
    3 Jan, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17727) | Send Message
     
    JVeal et al: got to thinking about this one ...

     

    "3. Commencing with the Pre-Installment for the Installment due on March 3, 2014, the definition of Installment Amount set forth in paragraph 29(v) of the Note shall be amended such that the term “$250,000” shall be replaced with “$125,000, except that the Company, may at its option, accelerate any such payment from $125,000 to $250,000”.

     

    The "may accelerate ..." may be carrying intelligence"? Maybe expected major announcement that could move share price substantially up? If that is the case, number of shares issued could be further reduced and/or the obligation to the lenders is completed earlier?

     

    OTOH, it may be nothing more than boilerplate continuing the right to pay more if the company desires?

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jan, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1597) | Send Message
     
    It's funny. At the bottom of the comment it says, "Report Abuse"…So I was momentarily going to push it to report the PIPERS abuse
    3 Jan, 06:27 PM Reply Like