Seeking Alpha

# Axion Power Host's  Instablog

Axion Power Host
Send Message
Trying to learn stuff
Back To Axion Power Host's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

•
WoW, am I first.
4 Jan, 06:20 PM Reply Like
•
This is a re-post, after I posted and went to the last entry I was 10 minutes late. So here goes.

JP. are my calculations correct if using .10/pps. (if it stays here) without including the conversions?

Just going by... "Parsoon will receive two more monthly installments of \$250,000 each while the others each receive four more monthly installments of \$125,000 each; plus interest in both cases."

\$250K X 2 = \$500K
4X \$125K = \$500K X 3 = \$1.5 mil
total \$2 mil / .08 = 25 million more shares + ?% interest would = how many more than the 25 mil shares?

I know using .10/shr is just a ballpark because of fluctuation (and also many if's and but's) but it seems, even adding interest, we would have to absorb less than 40 million shares. At current volume that would be two months. Now, the shares would not all be issued in two months (another but) but isn't that good for us? Or is it just hopium?
4 Jan, 06:23 PM Reply Like
• The interest rate on the notes is 8% per year so it's hard for me to see total debt payments of more than \$2 million after accounting for interest and accelerated conversions. So I think your 25 million share estimate is pretty good if the price holds at a dime.

The six-month rolling average volume through December is 21.6 million shares a month. Because of my experience with the double count, I believe that figure represents 10.8 million shares that left the hands of selling shareholders and 10.8 million shares that entered the hands of new investors.

Assuming a VWAP of \$.10 for all transactions, Axion just issued about 11.8 million shares for the February pre-installment estimate. In February and March, it will issue about 7.8 million shares a month to cover the reduced payment obligations. In April and May the share issuances should fall to 4.7 million shares a month.

If buy-side demand holds at the "new normal" levels established over the last six months, the reduced supply of shares available from the PIPErs should have a positive impact on price.
4 Jan, 07:58 PM Reply Like
•
Thanx for the reply John. I feel the same thing about the price. Something from NS or the PC arena could give us at least a 25% move. That's only 2.5 cents so I hope I'm being conservative.
4 Jan, 08:35 PM Reply Like
•
4 Jan, 06:24 PM Reply Like
•
I knew a girl named Tertia.
4 Jan, 06:45 PM Reply Like

HardToLove
4 Jan, 06:58 PM Reply Like
•
Very good HTL. ;-P
5 Jan, 11:28 AM Reply Like
•
Congrats to the PLUG shareholder, with the 12 mos. price increase from \$0.12 to 2.61 it looks like you have reached the other end of a certain valley. http://yhoo.it/WPREux;range=my;compare=;ind...
4 Jan, 08:14 PM Reply Like
•
Did you notice the insider buying after that .12 bottom?
4 Jan, 08:42 PM Reply Like
•
Masi - Did not,thanks for the heads-up. Wish I had bought then. After reading a comment about it here, PLUG has fascinated me. While its product does offer some "green" value, other factors are what make it attractive to the niche it targets. One of those factors, elimination of battery charging rooms, commits the customer to PLUG , even though its financial picture is far worse than AXPW. The PLUG client list has blue chip majors, including BMW. As an AXPW shareholder, the single-source supplier issue for a major is one near and dear to the heart (and pocket-book).
5 Jan, 08:02 PM Reply Like
•
HTL, I know you have an interest in DesignLine buses. There is a new article out and I'm sure most axionistas will find some comfort in the following lines:

"To reduce emissions and produce a quieter ride, DesignLine’s buses ran on batteries charged by a diesel-powered turbine and the braking system. But the batteries proved a frequent trouble spot, according to the emails. . .

Mintier said he has long held deep concerns about bus fires in general and suspicions about lithium-ion batteries, which were used on the buses and have caused problems for other manufacturers including Boeing and Sony.

“I believe it’s been shown there are numerous problems with lithium-ion batteries across numerous industries,” Mintier said. “There’s no solution that’s been found to be universal.”

4 Jan, 09:16 PM Reply Like
• D Lane: My interest in Designline was as a customer of CPST. Based on early publicly available information Charlotte Airport was supposedly pleased as punch with the buses. So that raised the possibility that CPST would see some heretofore unexpected growth in transportation use.

But Designline did have problems we knew of and, as it turns out from your article, some we didn't know of.

Thanks for that link. good sleuthing there.

HardToLove
5 Jan, 07:20 AM Reply Like
•
Mintier said. “There’s no solution that’s been found to be universal.”

Sounds like Mintier is not talking to the right people or "the right people" are not yet talking to Mintier.
5 Jan, 02:46 PM Reply Like
•
You're Welcome, HTL. I'm with you, still waiting for a CPST turbine vehicle to prove itself. I think batteries are holding these things up.

Do you like CPST in the short-term? Long-term?
5 Jan, 04:13 PM Reply Like
• D Lane: Long-term I do like it. Been holding and trading since ... 2008 or 2009? But it's taken a while to start making long-term progress on the management of the business (2007 a new management team started managing to cash flow, lost their way for a while IMO, and then seemed to come back to it).

Short-term I think it's overbought ATM, likely due to a recent Motley Fool article. A potential resistance, not yet confirmed, lies at \$1.40. If that really is resistance, we should start a re-trace to one of several possible points, \$1.32 (I don't think this would hold), \$1.26, \$1.22.

My bigger concern is reporting risk. CPST normally publicizes orders and there's been far fewer than normal over the last six months. This could result in the first reduction in order backlog in a long time if it really was few new orders. The EZ had already been identified as a trouble spot for CPST and management was thinking a return to historical levels would occur soon.

I'm thinking they are too optimistic and I do expect a smaller order backlog on the next report.

However, that may not drop pps as margins have been steadily improving for quite some time and most orders are long-dated delivery to match customer construction schedules. So immediate impact on results should be minimal. Impact 6-12 months out would be the concern if new orders with shorter delivery schedules don't materialize.

Also be aware that Gilder, Gagnon & Howe, a *hedge* firm, has re-entered the stock and they do short heavily. Since their return the short interest, which had been in a ... 14(?) month decline has begun to increase again. With the amount of capital they have to throw around they could move price to their benefit I guess.

At current prices levels I expect them, and others of the dirty shorts persuasion ( :-)) ) to be shorting to beat the band here. Don't know, can't say for sure ...

MHO,
HardToLove
P.S. It's possible some of the reduction new orders might be customers awaiting the new C250? But I think that's still around 12 months out before first infants get into the field, so I don't know how much weight to give that thought.
5 Jan, 04:43 PM Reply Like
•
HTL, I appreciate that!
5 Jan, 07:12 PM Reply Like
•
There sure are a whole bunch of people claiming ignorance in that company. It also seems it was a very poorly run company and their failure and mismanagement could be a black-eye for the concept. It is also fodder for the anti-green machine backed by the fossil fuel industry.

I wonder if E-Power could add buses to their product line once the truck sales take off.

OK, back to the NO. v PHI. game.
4 Jan, 11:01 PM Reply Like
• Man the Chiefs/Colts was a barn-burner. Combined 84(?) points on the board. Colts came from waaaay behind. I forget total yardage by the two, but it was BIG.

HardToLove
5 Jan, 07:23 AM Reply Like
•
HTL, did you see Luck pick up the fumble and dive it in for a TD?
5 Jan, 11:25 AM Reply Like
•
It just never seems to end in the good ole' USA. We noticed problems but we bought more. Jeez, I wonder why?

"A group led by retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Buster Glosson and his son, Brad, bought DesignLine in 2006 and moved it from New Zealand to Charlotte. The company attracted high-profile investors, including former North Carolina Gov. Jim Martin and Charlotte businessman Cameron Harris, and employed former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx as an in-house lawyer from late 2009 until he became U.S. transportation secretary in July."
5 Jan, 11:37 AM Reply Like
• Jpau: Sure did. That man was "on the ball" so to speak.

HardToLove
5 Jan, 11:49 AM Reply Like
•
Happy New Year. I am second.
5 Jan, 01:13 AM Reply Like
•
Is it true the PBC looses half of its charge in cold weather? and how does this compare to other batteries? Could this impose any risk on adoption?
5 Jan, 05:43 AM Reply Like
• Cold weather is hard on all batteries because chemical reactions occur more slowly at low temperatures. Since the PbC is a battery – supercapacitor hybrid that stores part of its energy in electrochemical form and part of its energy in capacitive form, it performs much better than other batteries in cold weather.

Axion's investor presentation notes that the PbC maintains "Full power output over a wide temperature range (-20°C to +50°C)."
5 Jan, 07:21 AM Reply Like
• Barood, IIRC the PbC performs as standard LAB re temps. But it does have a higher self-discharge rate and so wouldn't start the car after 30 days in the parking lot ... we believe.

Since the PbC is not intended, AFAIK, for starting, but only for carrying hotel loads, and it's DCA remains very high throughout it's anticipated lifetime, it would be charged up in just a few minutes after driving began, subject to the design limits of the charging system of course.

ISTR recall that someone, JP(?), reported inrush currents in excess of 200 amps w/o problems and we all(? again) speculated that 400 would likely be no problem.

HardToLove
5 Jan, 07:29 AM Reply Like
• The PbC performs better than lead-acid 1.0 or 2.0 in cold weather, but it's not ideally suited for use as a starter battery. That's an application where it's very hard to beat a fully charged flooded battery.

Axion has said that automakers have experienced problems with stop-start systems that perform poorly when a partially discharged starter battery sits idle for a month in cold weather – a problem that gave rise to the "airport test." Axion's preferred solution has always been a small flooded starter battery that's kept at 100% SOC and a large PbC that's dedicated to hotel loads.

Axion has never discussed detail about how the PbC performs after sitting idle for an extended period at PSOC and the theory that self-discharge is a major issue is Axionista conjecture, not Axion disclosure. Urban legends can be very hard to kill once they take root. The connection between self-discharge and the airport test is urban legend.
5 Jan, 08:23 AM Reply Like
•
Thank you both. To your point JP, I have electrical engineer friend who told me even lead-acid batteries self-discharge half percent a day when sitting idle.

Thanks,
5 Jan, 10:53 AM Reply Like
• The biggest problem with lead-acid arise when the batteries sit idle at a partial state of charge because those conditions promote rapid hard sulfation of the negative electrode. Lead-acid 1.0 and 2.0 are happiest when they're kept at a 100% SOC because fully recharging them on a regular basis inhibits sulfation. Keeping them at an 80% or 90% SOC is just about the worst thing you can imagine; it's also the something automakers must do for mechanically and electrically optimized stop-start.
5 Jan, 11:02 AM Reply Like
•
ii, it's reasonable to be concerned re: Corvus.

Corvus is powering Railserve. Railserve is owned by Marmon/Berkshire Hathaway. BH also owns BNSF Rwy.

Railserve has a customer with very deep pockets and stunningly patient ownership. Also shares BH ownership. :>)

That's why I have suggested in the past that NS or BNSF will be the ones who create the hybrid locomotive. Also note that Railserve and NS are in talks for joint manufacturing/testing facilities for themselves and other roads without that ability.

BN & NS are testing testing testing. These are the two innovative railroads in the US and they are dancing a similar dance. I have little doubt they are sharing test/build/design information. The two roads with the most compelling innovative culture, deepest pockets, visionary leadership, and patient development are working on hybrid locomotives. There's really nothing more for me to reasonably imagine.

Whether the result will be sales of PbC to either/both is unknown. But something will happen sooner or later and right now we're still in the hunt. I have faith in PbC to perform and I have faith in Lithium/anything to prove unsatisfactory. Could be wrong of course, but I have my money on Axion. We should also consider both designs will be adopted. NSC at least likes to have two irons in every fire. I think we win no matter what.

Sure would be nice if it was sooner rather than later . . .
5 Jan, 07:39 AM Reply Like
• The crazy part is that investors are always looking for a monopoly position because they think that's the best way to make money. Industry, on the other hand, hates dealing with monopolies because of high costs and sole source risks. There's an old joke about the only lawyer in a small town who was worried when another lawyer set up shop because he feared that the newcomer would take a share of his business. They both ended up making small fortunes because there was somebody else to fight and compete with.

In markets as large as trucking, rail and automotive, all I ever hope for is a credible competitive position that can earn a respectable market share.
5 Jan, 08:10 AM Reply Like
•
The pricing scenarios were interesting. Would like to know the potential price of an NS-999 production model as that would seem to be one of the greatest factors affecting adoption.
5 Jan, 08:55 AM Reply Like
•

http://bit.ly/11LCKHC
5 Jan, 09:10 AM Reply Like
• I was really impressed by the part that recommends a charge current of 1C or less. The reason the NS 999 burned out its AGM batteries in short order was regenerative braking currents that took charge rates into the 2C to 4C range. If 1C is the best Corvus can do, its products won't have a long and productive useful life in daily use.

It's also worth noting that Corvus is not a battery manufacturer. It buys cells from Dow Kokam, which Dow recently sold-out to its partners, and packages those third party cells into modules and packs with proprietary control and safety systems.

http://bit.ly/ZMYZfx
5 Jan, 10:52 AM Reply Like
• John: I noticed the 1C rate too but figured with genset-dominant drive train they may not have issues? Of course they also mentioned being able to do some work on batteries only, so that would start to put them at risk for reduced lifetime issues I guess.

HardToLove
5 Jan, 11:53 AM Reply Like
•
Thanks VW. I'd just hate to see Axion get squeezed out because AMPS was using the let NS build some loco's carrot. But I also think they will be cautious on lithium ion due to the safety issue we are once again reminded of.

Also agree with John's point on more than once supplier and technology. Large companies hate single source/solution technology as it increases risk and cost.
5 Jan, 11:56 AM Reply Like
•
In that article (metro's link) I counted 7 references dealing with overheating or fire. Is that to protect themselves against law suites? Because if I was contrasting one battery type to another, after reading so many cautions about fire, I would run to a different chemistry. Just seeing all those caution signs is a deterrent.

Am I naive, or just not recalling the same for Lead Acid or Nickle based technology?
5 Jan, 03:44 PM Reply Like
•
All terms "Car battery Dead" , "Car battery recharge", "Car battery Problems" show the same rising chart, and they all show this big spike later in 2013 persisting and not coming down. The rise started in 2009 creeping higher for 3 years and now it is going parabolic. Sooner or later this will reach the media outlets.

It is persisting across all car manufacturers, I still need to figure out what is the root cause of this trend. is it because of SS? hybrid? electrification? or something else.
5 Jan, 11:22 AM Reply Like
•
Hmmm. he used the term "parabolic." So he obviously knows what he is talking about. However, I wonder what would happen if I did a control sample on a random term like "blue socks" or "satisfied customer" and checked if that term also went "parabolic" since 2009. Given the "parabolic" increase in use of high-speed internet and smartphones since then, could it be that pretty much any term will show a similar trend?
5 Jan, 06:41 PM Reply Like
•
Had you understood my message, you will understand that it didn't go parabolic since 2009, only lately. Set your facts straight before concluding.
5 Jan, 10:57 PM Reply Like
•
Plus I can show you hundreds of sample terms that are going down, so we have no confounding problem with the increase in smart phone usage. I hope next time you have something to contribute, instead of nagging.
5 Jan, 11:27 PM Reply Like
•
I have a friend who owns a 2011 325i and he has been having the battery problem for a year. Now the catch is he can't trickle charge the car because he is in a condo and has no place to plug it in. So he drives the car to his parents house every weekend and plugs it in.

I can't believe how much pain owners of BMW are willing to live with, BMWs are like crack.
5 Jan, 12:17 PM Reply Like
•
I always get a kick out of those who forgot the fact that machines are supposed to work for people. Welcome to the machine.
5 Jan, 12:40 PM Reply Like
•
Barood, Starting on pg eight explains why you guys and your friend are not to happy with your AGM batteries in those "Bummer's". Especially think about the implications, as it relates to your experiences, of the info. on pages nine and ten. Just in case you haven't seen it or need a refresh cycle on yer memory.

http://bit.ly/1hIaKcu

PS And that's one reason why they disable SS if the temperature is below 3 deg. C or 37.4deg. F. It's because the darn battery takes too long to recharge. Even when it's new.

http://bit.ly/JCPqer
5 Jan, 09:27 PM Reply Like
•
That's very old story, as usual
5 Jan, 11:33 PM Reply Like
•
"Just in case you haven't seen it or need a refresh cycle on yer memory."

Response

" That's very old story, as usual"

No it's not a story it's a presentation that's inclusive of data directly related to the topic that was being discussed.
6 Jan, 07:52 AM Reply Like
•
Iin,

That reply of mine was carried by accident, it is not related your message. Sorry if it carried a different meaning
7 Jan, 06:57 PM Reply Like
•
Excellent discussions guys! Barood, pls keep on asking Q's. This a fantastic way for new investors and lurkers alike to learn about AXPW. Fresh interest really helps absorb the supply.
5 Jan, 01:43 PM Reply Like
•
Along that line, I see we've picked up 5 more followers in the last few days after losing one prior.
5 Jan, 01:54 PM Reply Like
•
I'll second that. Also, iindelco thanks for pointing out slide 8. We'd been asking for that chart for ever. I think I missed that when it came out or just forgot about it which has me kicking myself since I've been interested in the total amount of electricity a PbC can "move" in its service life (there's a proper term for that which I can't seem to recall).

If electricity is \$.10 per Kwh and an HT30's capacity is .5 Kwh then a full charge is a nickel's worth of electricity (obviously that's under optimum circumstances when connected to the grid).

2500 full charges is \$125 worth of electricity with the curve generally following that total of 1.25 megawatts although some of the limits haven't yet been determined.

However, based on what JP has stated about the expected life of the PbC in the ePower application and the way that application works (intra-second fluctuations in charge/discharge events) the number may be far higher at the extreme left side of that chart.

This raises another question for JP. John, during these "micro" charge/discharge events does the ePower system constantly rotate the events amongst different battery strings? Thanks in advance.

For the new folks the \$125 number isn't really that important since in almost every scenario, the actual value of the energy the PbC "moves" is of far higher value than that optimum number. Also, in the ePower scenario, I believe most (don't know the percentage) of the fuel savings is due to the smaller engine the battery enables rather than the electricity supplied by regenerative braking.

So, if a \$20k bank of PbC batteries over 500k truck miles saves 30,000 gallons of fuel that's 600 gallons or more than \$2k per battery.

My apology if I've confused some folks but I do think this type of analysis helps to understand the economics of batteries in various applications.
7 Jan, 01:21 AM Reply Like
•
APM, fwiw, I do think it is one very useful way to approach the economics for any application/battery combination. Your point about the true value of the power at the actual time/place of use seems really the crux of it though. WRT ePower's configuration (and John can correct me if mistaken) I do believe they are arranged in one single string, not multiple strings (as NS-999 is)...
7 Jan, 12:31 PM Reply Like
•
Here is another question that is boggling my mind. My understanding when ePower tested the PBC initially, they had problems with the battery power until Axion did some modification and the problem went away.

How come NS didn't have the same problem when they were testing the batteries from the same batch ?

I am asking this because I want to make sure NS did really test the PBC or did the project plan change at one point, so they put the batteries aside for later testing.
5 Jan, 02:56 PM Reply Like
• ePower and NS are using the PbC for very different purposes and while both applications have brutal charge acceptance profiles, the energy and power demands are very different.

Moving freight cars around a rail yard is an energy application as you move a string of loaded railcars from Point A to Point B. In simple terms NS is using a string of 860 PbC batteries to generate something in the neighborhood of 1,000 hp, or 1 hp per battery.

Acceleration and climbing boost in heavy trucking is a power application that requires huge bursts of power for short periods of time. ePower is using a string of 56 PbC batteries to generate something in the neighborhood of 150 hp, or 3 hp per battery.

While both NS and ePower need huge charge acceptance for regenerative braking, ePower needs about three times the discharge capacity.

Since NS was primarily concerned with extreme charge acceptance, earlier versions of the PbC fit their needs perfectly. Since ePower needed extreme charge acceptance and extreme power delivery, Axion made some internal changes and came through with a product that fit our needs.

In its 2013 Sustainability Report NS said "In 2013, we plan to roll out the next generation NS 999, outfitted with a bank of more technologically advanced hybrid lead-carbon batteries developed by industry partner Axion Power International." Unless you're willing to assume that NS is making up fairy tales for its Sustainability Report, there is no reason to think they haven't tested the PbC or that their project plans have changed.

http://bit.ly/13D2jHk
5 Jan, 03:52 PM Reply Like
•
Barood, The issue was not a problem as I understand it. The issue was that ePower was not getting the level of performance they required. In fact the PbC battery has the ability to have adjustments made to the battery to change the amount of electrochemical and electrostatic energy that is stored in the unit. This is done by adjusting the ratio of material in the positive lead based and negative activated carbon based electrodes.

Also, for historic correctness, Axion also changed the carbon sheeting process between the time when the first batch of PbC batteries was supplied to ePower and when the replacement/revised set of PbC batteries was provided. When this was done TG stated in one of the cc's that they saw an improvement in the performance of the battery with the automated process that yielded IIRC better energy density. Not a huge improvement but an improvement.

So anyway, ePower and NSC might in fact be looking for different performance characteristics and it is possible that if Axion had long term agreements with both they might in fact be manufacturing PbC battery rev. level A for one company and PbC battery rev. level B for the other. This based on their needs for different levels of power vs energy.
5 Jan, 04:02 PM Reply Like
• FWIW, ePower and NS are using different case sizes. NS is using a Group 30HT battery case that's about 12 inches high. Since ePower has to worry about ground clearance, it's using a Group 30H battery case that's about 9 inches high.
5 Jan, 04:09 PM Reply Like
•
Awesome! Thank you both.
5 Jan, 04:23 PM Reply Like
•
Minus news - suspect this week tells us if the price goes to \$0.07-.08 or \$0.12 in next 3-4 months

l
5 Jan, 04:34 PM Reply Like
•
Re the "new deal"

Anyone have any thoughts on who might have initiated the changes and why?
5 Jan, 04:36 PM Reply Like
• After a price failure like we had at the end of last month there were only two choices, meekly let go of \$1 million in cash or adjust the terms enough to eliminate the issue. It's hard to say who made the first move, but it's obvious that both sides wanted to cooperate.
5 Jan, 05:57 PM Reply Like
•
I decided to add another 100K this coming week, plus I have \$30K bonus coming up end of January, I will then add another 500K shares to bring my total to 1 million shares assuming the price will be close to where we are.

This is unprecedented opportunity from price, timing and rare breakthrough in technology. Hopefully I will get my 5 million return on this with \$100K down, if it didn't work I will upgrade to a Honda and give BMW the finger.

Human rationality has limits, but irrationality has no limits and you see it here in Axion share price.
5 Jan, 04:56 PM Reply Like
•
Barood,

I could not agree more re: irrationality.
5 Jan, 06:14 PM Reply Like
• Since you're obviously a visual type, you might want to visit one of the stock charting websites and pull up a three year graph with an Accumulation-Distribution line. This graph is one of the ugliest things I've ever seen, but an absolute miracle that the price held despite the pressure.

http://bit.ly/JVVsX3
5 Jan, 06:32 PM Reply Like
•
Barood,

Do you still see axion as a one in ten chance to pay off.
5 Jan, 09:06 PM Reply Like
•
Jcr,

Probability is for fools in chaotic systems, this is not a rule based environment like black jack counting cards. That's why I take worst possible assumption when it comes to odds. What matters is the asymmetry in payoff, it is so skewed that only irrational won't take the bet
6 Jan, 12:55 AM Reply Like
•
Barood,

"Human rationality has limits, but irrationality has no limits and you see it here in Axion share price"

I don't necessarily see it that way anymore to be honest. The market price discovery mechanism for AXPW is trying to tell us something, and it is that it doesn't fully buy into the Axion story as long as there is no credible first customer emerging and committing to the technology on a commercial scale. Couple that we a disastrous financing deal, uncertainty about the financial condition of Axion past mid year 2014, and it is actually quite understandable to have the market value the company at 1.3 times book value.

Of course, when a first customer emerges and the prospect of recurrent revenue enters the equation, the whole paradigm for valuing AXPW changes...

If I were in your shoes, I would wait a bit before committing big money to the stock. We are at a critical junction in the company's history, the moment where either we make it and score big, or we don't. Better entry points are probably down the road if we don't get significant orders soon. Just my two 0.02\$
5 Jan, 06:38 PM Reply Like
•
Or Barood, accounting for the price (staying close to this .10) you could make your purchase on a day that looks like we won't make the \$40K threshold. Only if you decided you will buy of course. :
5 Jan, 07:21 PM Reply Like
•
If the PIPE gets fewer shares and people start making big buys in the new year, when the turn starts it will be a rocket. Which is the bigger risk, trying to catch it on the way up or waiting for the turn?
5 Jan, 07:26 PM Reply Like
•
I will wait for the turn, just to remind you that there are tons of shares out there, if axionistas refuse to sell ... then TG will print more shares. He's already told you so.

Plus, the PIPER's have another 25 million +/- to go
5 Jan, 07:30 PM Reply Like
•
I guess it all depends on how much cash you have. If you have several thousand\$ a penny or two won't hurt that much but if you have less than a couple thousand 1 or 2 cents puts a big dent in your share count. I am in the latter category but have \$13,500 invested as of Friday. I'm just afraid a decent announcement will come out and the price will shoot way up before I pull the trigger. The past half year I have been buying on the larger dips.

Fear And Greed.
5 Jan, 07:47 PM Reply Like
• Amouna> With respect, the "market price discovery mechanism" doesn't even know Axion exists. In fact, the only people who pay any attention to the stock are SA users who follow my work on a regular basis. For better or worse I'm the only guy on the planet who's taken the time to explain the story and lay out a reasoned investment thesis. I love what Axion has done with the battery, but their PR and market development efforts are beyond dismal.

The Axionistas who've been patiently accumulating for the last couple years have reached a point where they're demanding more clarity on the path to sustainable revenue, but the broader market will remain oblivious until we have an event that fires somebody's imagination. That's when the real fun will start.
5 Jan, 07:47 PM Reply Like
•
"but their PR and market development efforts are beyond dismal."

I second that X10.
5 Jan, 07:52 PM Reply Like
•
Amouna ,
Thanks for this post and I appreciate opposing views with hypotheses.

You mention market price is 1.3 of book value, that means my downside theoratically is close to 30% and my upside is 50 folds, isn't it irrational not to take this bet assuming the odds of future events are equally likely.

I don't believe in prediction in chaotic systems and that's why the assumption of another dilution is more of a confirmation bias.

I have talked in prior posts about the unprecedented confidence destruction in the whole market in general and that is leaking to axion share price and axion's customers not moving fast enough.

I disagree with Mr market on the commercial viability of the product from personal experience and the evidence given by big names spending so much money and time on testing the product. If there are issues in the product then why work is still going on. Looking at epower how they bought the story so quickly is Imo confirmation of my points.
6 Jan, 12:27 AM Reply Like
• Book value is not a floor. Many companies trade for below book, and many companies go bankrupt despite having a positive book value. Tangible book adjusted down to estimated liquidation value is a better measure of a potential floor, but even then the markets can go far below that.

It's not well known that in 2008 the so called "toxic" mortgage backed securities in the news all the time were trading at irrationally low prices due to the panic. For example, Merrill Lynch in a cash pinch sold some MBS at 22 cents on the dollar despite the portfolio being well over 90% performing loans! Plus they were all secured to real estate which is probably the best collateral (long term). Land isn't going anywhere. Buildings tend to find uses and last for many decades. Residential will certainly always have significant value as how many will go live under a bridge? The current yields on the toxic MBS at the time were 15-20% and many MBS loans kept performing quite well, thus the Fed and Treasury doing very well with those investments. For all the grandstanding and doomsaying at the time, TARP made a profit overall, costing taxpayers less than zero.

Fifty cents on the dollar might have made sense to adjust for any loans written on real estate at bubble prices, but below that was a steal. The financial crisis was largely a self fulfilling prophecy! (of people watching market prices fall and getting scared witless into hunkering down and creating a recession) Mark to market acctg really exacerbated it as corporations "corroborated" the asset deflations with the big writedowns and resultant losses mandated by the M2M. All very interesting times; hopefully not to repeat the same mistakes.
6 Jan, 07:01 AM Reply Like
•
Greentongue, the PIPERS will not get fewer shares. Under the new terms, they will get more, just spread out a little more in time. This might relieve selling pressure in the near term, but it will also delay any rise until a time much closer to when they need to raise capital.
6 Jan, 09:16 AM Reply Like
•
John, I have been tracking Axion for some time and am considering making an investment.

If I may ask, what convinced you back then that Mr Granville was critical to lead Axion? I have taken a look at his profile - he has done a lot, but not much in the commercialization of technology, nor in manufacturing ramp-up. Gallagher Elevator was mainly a services company, real estate/construction, while can be profitable for him, does not seem relevant.

Do you also have a sense of how big a P&L he had been responsible for prior to Axion?

I have some experience with tech start-ups, and it takes a special breed of person to be a successful CEO, especially in the difficult battery industry. Watching pennies and keeping the company alive is one of them, but there are many important attributes as well.

With thanks.
6 Jan, 01:20 AM Reply Like
• vkvc> Welcome here. Good questions.

My take: I am here despite being one who is generally averse to investing in either development stage companies or tech companies. I've made a big exception for Axion, based wholly on the unique properties of its PbC battery. So for me, while your questions are valid, none of the answers falling negative would be a deal breaker. AXPW is about the PbC and the fact (IMO) that it is so compelling an energy/money saver that it will sell itself.
6 Jan, 06:38 AM Reply Like
•
R.A,

"it is so compelling an energy/money saver that it will sell itself"

In my opinion, herein lies the rub: No product would EVER sell itself without adept management. A company's success is as much about management as it is about the product being delivered to the market place.

While we have been criticizing Axion and TG's team for their shortcomings on a number of performance metrics they have set for themselves and haven't reached, it is still a bit early to pull the plug. Obviously, if we are in the same spot next year, then it is time to reassess!
6 Jan, 07:04 AM Reply Like
• Axion was created as a life-boat reorganization for a busted deal run by crooks that had a wonderful technology. The founders were a small group of 10 high net worth individuals (including Tom) who'd invested several million before they learned the whole story. Since the only choices were walk away and suffer a complete loss or team together and find a solution, they chose the latter and found a way to get control of the technology, boot the crooked promoters and create a proper corporate organization to move the technology forward.

Axion went public at far too early a stage because there were so many people with interests that had to be protected and there was no other way to accomplish the goal. For the first three years it was a non-stop bloodbath as we cleaned up title to the technology, eliminated problem personnel, sealed the information sieve and put the company on a reasonable financial footing. Litigation costs were our biggest SG&A class.

We had all the technology and manufacturing process development skill we needed in Bob Averill, who was a true tech manufacturing superstar, but the first guy we hired as CEO was a salesman who was far more interested in selling a product than figuring out how to make a product. We needed a battlefield leader who could run an extremely tight ship and get all the cats herding in the same direction, and could deal effectively with financiers, commercialization partners and regulators. Tom was our best possible choice.

While Tom's day job was running an elevator company, his real work was negotiating national labor contracts and running a \$2 billion pension fund for the elevator industry when he wasn't developing cable TV and major real estate projects.

The battery industry is different from most because it's extremely resistant to change and innovation is greeted with an NIH (not invented here) mentality. To compound the problem batteries are not truly a consumer product. Instead they're a critical component in consumer products so the only path to market is through major OEMs. We believed then and I continue to believe that Tom was the best man to negotiate that maze.
6 Jan, 07:13 AM Reply Like
• Amouna> I respectfully disagree and would suggest that PbC sales are on a course to bear fruit already, no matter what management does or doesn't do. By the way, management certainly has been adept at visionary product development, so a pass is likely deserved if marketing could have been better.

Here's one scenario I feel is plausible if not likely, for PbC sales and the stock price in 2014-15:

ePower demo trucks' incredible mileage in 2014 does some serious head turning in the trucking industry and Jay Bowman begins to gain notoriety. Retrofit orders may start out too few to help Axion's cash flow much but it starts to build. Every month or 10,000 miles that a rig performs beyond what truckers thought possible gets truckers talking. Word spreads virally, i.e. geometrically.

Some truckers wonder "What's with this Axion battery thingy it requires? Why won't any other battery work?" So they end up on Axion's website. They notice the stock quote. "Hmm, ten cents a share (or twenty or thirty) ... why don't I just throw a few thousand dollars at it and see what happens." So share price climbs in 2014 because there are LOTS of truckers out there. (and stationary power industry people; and S/S; and railroad) Seems to me that more and more buyers are already finding the stock somehow and ending up poking their head in on these concentrators. A good sign.

Just several thousand dollars a day more buying volume would be very significant in the rarefied space that is the AXPW market, especially if they're just hitting the asks. That's far more likely with newbies vs the old guard to not quibble on price since they are not worried about climbing out of the deep hole in their wallet.

Then Axion needs financing later in 2014 but with the share price up it's terms are no worse or even better than last time. Except the price doesn't even tank after the new PIPE is inked, but keeps rising as end user word continues to go viral and bring in buyers. (End user testimonials are the best sales agents of all! ) PIPErs could actually get conversions at the contract stipulated price rather than a VWAP adjusted price. With financing not looking grim nor the stock price, when sales actually ramp up in 2015-16 from any of the potential markets or some combination, the market has been "forward looking" with a big move up in 2014.

What some bears haven't considered is that Axion's cash needs in 2014 -- the primary worry -- can be met by either finding favorable financing directly, or by money simply finding its way into the market to boost the stock, which indirectly creates financing conditions far favorable to what the market expects now. From all I've seen of the bear case, they think a lot of sales in 2014 are needed or else financing necessarily will be on very bad terms.
6 Jan, 08:32 AM Reply Like
•
Thanks John.

I have no doubt about Mr Granville's tenacity in pulling the company together, that was also well described in 2011 Batteries International article. Tom must have been the best choice then, though I am not entirely sure it could be the case now.

But it is what it is, and we have Axion where it is, when many others have come and gone.

Question. This takes quite a bit of work, but has anyone attempted to do a bottoms-up revenue model of the company in the truck, grid, rail and automotive sectors, as an IB analyst would as part of a fuller? With drivers (volume and price), probabilities and ramp-up schedule and such. So that we can have a sense of how Axion could look like if management executes as expected?

On a side note for project transparency, companies can sometimes circumvent NDA requirements to provide potential investors a better sense of impending projects, by providing a list of anonymized projects in the pipeline with fields like sector, potential value, stage of engagement/probability, timeline etc. Easier done for private companies, probably much harder for listed ones.
6 Jan, 05:10 PM Reply Like
• Doing a bottoms up forecast for Axion would be a monster headache because there aren't any known facts that form a reasonable assumptions respecting future sales and ramp rates. In many ways it would be easier to model ePower than it would to model Axion, and I've strongly resisted requests for an ePower financial model because I don't think we have enough facts yet.

Public companies run into all kinds of issues under Regulation FD if they make disclosures to private investors that are not made to the public. As a rule, the current practice is to do a term sheet wrap on the SEC filings and call it a day. It's a lot more fun with a private company.
6 Jan, 05:30 PM Reply Like
•
Thanks John. It's definitely more fun with private companies.
7 Jan, 02:58 AM Reply Like
•
I think the ePower truck performance, when it is confirmed, will start a firestorm. It is the kind of news that people want to hear. American innovation making a real difference. It may even prompt some "me too" announcements.
6 Jan, 07:29 AM Reply Like
• I certainly hope you're right. We should find out in fairly short order.
6 Jan, 07:55 AM Reply Like
•
JP

Thank you for recent posts. They are reassuring

First "it's obvious that both sides wanted to cooperate". This in my view is significant as it suggests the ducks are lining up for success - or at least to give success a fair chance to be realized

Also your post on TG and history is also one that I appreciated having. It does not answer the many good questions that have been raised about his apparent shortcomings - but it does suggest a number of qualities that may be important to reaching the promised land

JP - as always thank you for your posts - I may not always accept them but they are critical to the healthy dialogue that has evolved on the APC and I am appreciative for them
6 Jan, 08:31 AM Reply Like
• Tom has an extremely tough dynamic to live with. Stockholders want more information and they want to understand how the major projects are progressing. Unfortunately the customers who are paying for those projects want to keep their efforts triple-secret until they're ready to launch. Given a choice between angry customers and angry stockholders, the customer is always right. After all, it does no good to keep the stockholders happy if you torch a customer relationship in the process.

The neat thing about ePower is that it wants to spread the word as badly as Axion does and so do its potential customers. The fleet operators know that fuel costs represent 35% of their direct operating costs and they know that society has nothing good to say about their fuel consumption and pollution. So when a fleet takes a flyer with a cleaner and more cost-effective technology, they want to strap on that green arm band and strut their stuff for anybody who will listen. Companies like WPRT and CLNE have no problem maintaing a constant stream of news because everybody involved in the process wants their fair share of kudos.

When they finally act I expect NS to be every bit as noisy as ePower plans to be. They rolled out the PR bandwagon when they launched the NS 999 and for the first few weeks the PR din was deafening. Then they blew out the batteries and found themselves facing a PR catastrophe because they spoke too loudly too soon. This time around NS is keeping things under wraps until they're sure there won't be another embarrassment. When NS has enough confidence to talk, I suspect it will talk frequently and loudly because it needs a green arm band and kudos as much as the trucking industry does.
6 Jan, 09:02 AM Reply Like
•
Green Hero: ALABC

http://bit.ly/Kwbh8h

Pile of horse s&^t

Axion Power :-)) ((-: :-))
6 Jan, 10:14 AM Reply Like
•
Could this be a patent issue?
"but ALABC research has shown how certain types of carbon can be used with the negative plates to allow the batteries to function as normal."

The article talks about the UK but is ALABC worldwide?
6 Jan, 10:51 AM Reply Like
•
I re-read the article and found this:

A pre-competitive consortium, ALABC attempts to give its members a chance to maximise research and development investments in a variety of ways including: initiating and participating in discussions; proposing and participating in cutting edge projects; and offering access to a collective knowledge base. We’re proud to say it has its roots in the UK too: it is managed by the International Lead Zinc Research Organisation, which is based in London.

Also found this:
A Program of the International Lead Zinc Research Organization

1822 NC Highway 54 East, Suite 120, Durham, NC 27713
6 Jan, 10:56 AM Reply Like
•
No, The ALABC is pushing the addition of carbon to the NAM (Negative Active Material). This solution yields some improvement in reducing sulfation and improving DCA but is nowhere near what the PbC solution delivers. Basically it's a good enhancement. It is an open source solution for all LAB manufacturers.

I must admit that I have found it interesting that JCI, the largest LAB solution provider, is not recommending nor offering this solution AFAIK.
6 Jan, 10:58 AM Reply Like
•
Would it be prudent for Axion to work with this organization just for the general awareness or recognition? Or is this not the direction they want to pursue? I don't recall any AXPW press releases or anything on their web site that mentions them.
6 Jan, 11:11 AM Reply Like
•
Update, Axion is a member of this group, which is quite extensive.

http://bit.ly/1dJfdws
6 Jan, 11:14 AM Reply Like
• Axion is an ALABC member and got a small ALABC grant in 2009.

http://bit.ly/Ic5EL2

The biggest problem with the ALABC is their mission is to support technical developments that will benefit all consortium members and Axion's desire to protect its IP from infringement creates some tension. The organization also tends to play favorites, which doesn't always sit well.
6 Jan, 11:18 AM Reply Like
•
Are those favorites founding members or political pets or big monied companies? Combination of?
6 Jan, 11:24 AM Reply Like
•
SA won't let me post something due to an "error"....so I put it on the QC
6 Jan, 12:02 PM Reply Like
•
While many focus on Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) for its electric vehicles (EV), the company also has a robust business in simply producing and selling rechargeable batteries for autos.
But, one notable competitor isn't going to just let Tesla control the market.
ChinaDaily reported over the weekend that General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Berkeley Lab are working on a next-generation EV battery. The battery will be water-based and may provide better storage and performance than current battery variations. The goal is for a drivable range of around 240 miles, GE said.
In addition to performance, GE thinks the battery could eventually cost one-fourth the price of current price of batteries on the market today.
The discharge and recharge of the battery will happen in electrochemical cells separate from energy storage tanks, which should make the process safer.
While a prototype won't be available until later this year, the news is good as China and other markets work to curb auto emissions and improve transportation conditions.
Tesla recently announced entering into a battery manufacturing agreement with Panasonic for the next four years.
Shares of Tesla are down 1.3 percent.
Copyright 2014, Street Insider News Provided by Acquire Media
6 Jan, 12:04 PM Reply Like
•
IINDelco,

Are you sure about that? I know Exide has been pushing its batteries with carbon additives. I thought there was an old JCI presentation that used carbon additives? Maybe they gave up on the idea when they decided to push their 48V system with the Li-ion battery.
6 Jan, 02:01 PM Reply Like
•
LabTech, I could be wrong but the only time I have ever seem JCI mention carbon additives was in their year end analyst report 2 years ago when they mentioned that it also comes with failure modes. I cannot speak about before then as I haven't tracked them very much before then.

I surely am not saying JCI has not worked with carbon additives and is not working with them but I have seen no material that suggests they offer anything in this area at this time.
6 Jan, 03:04 PM Reply Like
•
No trades in almost 2 hours. Are people having trouble digesting the new loan agreement?
6 Jan, 11:31 AM Reply Like
•
My guess: expecting and waiting for "the daily dump".
6 Jan, 12:02 PM Reply Like
•
I was thinking the fibers running all the data are frozen. -14 in Chicago with -50 wind chills. I'm only 31, I can't ever remember it getting this cold here.
6 Jan, 12:03 PM Reply Like
• Here in the Piedmont region of NC, we're supposed to hit 7 or 9 degrees, depending on source, overnight, not seen in about 10 years.

HardToLove
6 Jan, 12:05 PM Reply Like
•
Articula, I remember two cases of brutal cold Chicago temps only 5 years apart. The first one had -50 wind chill, while I was working outside that night parking cars. Made some good extra money jump starting some dead cars. At least we had our little office heated to, I'd say about 100.

The other memory was only five years later, in the record cold week of Jan 1982. Visiting my girlfriend at the time at the Hyatt by O'Hare, where she was the Events Director. Well, my car wouldn't start the next morning---the temp bottomed at -26, which was a record then, so I had to rough it at the Hyatt while waiting a few days for the local car shop to repair it. Hey, I woulda been fine if the warm-up waited til July. If ur gonna get stuck, might as well be in a good place. Like Aspen or something.
6 Jan, 12:54 PM Reply Like
•
The people who comprised most of daily volume are the ones who came up with the new agreement. It's early to say, but perhaps they are switching to accumulation mode (save for Parsoons).
6 Jan, 01:11 PM Reply Like
•
Nuttin like some nice cold weather to extend Axion's runway by a day or two. Freeze your &%\$ off and help a start-up. Just makes you feel warm all over. ;-D
6 Jan, 01:14 PM Reply Like
•
Mr I - Ha I was born in August of 82, but my dad refers to that event to this day. I walk about 1 mile to work each day. I live in the burbs of Chicago and get dropped off via train at Union station each day and then proceed to walk. Normally, I'd take a cab when it's this cold but I had to experience what this felt like. I armed myself with an extra layer of pants and a scarf. Needless to say I've never felt my face burn as much as this morning.

What's weird is the temperature will actually drop this afternoon, making it colder than when I got in. I think I'll take a cab if available! I've experienced enough for my tastes :)
6 Jan, 01:16 PM Reply Like
• I was in South Bend for the winters of 76 through 78 and as I recall, the winter of 77 was particularly nasty. I think that was the year I had to don snow shoes to go out and get milk for my daughter.
6 Jan, 01:25 PM Reply Like
•
Articula, now you'll have a epic winter story to tell, too!

Funny how a big part of the stories are relative to ur normal life. I went on a Jan trip to Bemidji, MN in the late 70's to visit my sister and experience what one of the coldest places in the lower 48 feels like. What seemed like perpetual absolute zero to me was just ordinary to them. They're prepared for it in every way. Even had electric cords next to parking meters, for keeping the engines warm while they shop.

And those folks prob say the same things about people living further north, and so on. An announcer for last night's Blackhawks game said that when he was in Winnipeg earlier in his career, there was a stretch of nine days or so where each night's low reached -40.
6 Jan, 02:11 PM Reply Like
•
John, yep, the winter of '77 was a biggie. My girlfriend moved to Chicago the night of the big storm. All the road signs were plastered with snow, and since this was way before turn-by-turn directions, she got badly lost. While she might wish she ended up in San Diego by mistake, I'm grateful she eventually ran out of gas right here.

But the mother of all Chicago winters was '67. I had so much fun as a kid when the giant storm hit in Jan. Three days earlier it was much warmer, with tornado warnings. Then the fun began. Drifts up to rooftops. Sledding to the A&P for milk. Even the snowplow got stuck. Had to bring in one of those 'V' jobs from Colorado to clear our street.
6 Jan, 02:17 PM Reply Like
•
John, I think you may be talking about '78. I'm an hour from South Bend in western Michigan. My neighbor was a kid then and the other day he was reminiscing about how he went sledding off of his roof after the blizzard of '78.

http://bit.ly/1kmvtcl
6 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
•
HTL,
Here in the Triangle DCPS just announced a two hour delay for school in the morning. They don't want the kids waiting for buses in the cold. Hmmm...when I went to school in Iowa I don't remember them ever delaying school because it was too cold. But then again, those were the days when I walked to and from school in the winter, barefooted and without a coat, for a mile going uphill both ways. ;-)
6 Jan, 03:52 PM Reply Like
• Labtech: I would think Iowa was used to it though. You know it's only been the last decade or so that we began to have enough equipment to even clean the streets down here. Well, at least around Burlington.

HardToLove
6 Jan, 03:56 PM Reply Like
•
HTL,
True enough. I remember when I bought my first house here about 13 years ago. We'd just had a big snow storm and I was expecting the utilities to send someone over to turn on the water. I drove over to the house, got my old snow shovel out and started shoveling out the driveway. My new neighbor walked over and asked where I was from and I told him I lived in an apartment on the other side of town. He said, "no, where are you from that you have your own snow shovel?"
6 Jan, 04:06 PM Reply Like
•
Just a mile???
6 Jan, 04:19 PM Reply Like
•
Yup, DL, it was the blizzard of 78. We got 4-5 feet of snow with drifts passed the second floor windows. I was in RI.
6 Jan, 04:20 PM Reply Like
•
raleigh731,
"Just a mile???"
Well, it was my church's Catholic grade school after all. I remember the first time I explained to my wife the route I walked every day to and from school. She couldn't believe that I was "allowed" to walk that far, on my own, at the age of 6 (I had to put my mom on the phone to confirm it to her). I explained to her that my older sisters did walk with me the first day, but then they didn't want to be seen with their younger brother after that.

Update: I just Google Mapped it, and it turns out it was only 0.6 miles walking distance. Now it hardly seems worth mentioning.
6 Jan, 04:37 PM Reply Like
• Mine was more like 2.2 miles each way but there wasn't much snow in Phoenix and we all had bicycles.
6 Jan, 04:42 PM Reply Like
•
Having grown up in Iowa, I thought winters were hard. Then I went into broadcasting and moved to the Twin Cities. Hell-oooo . . . .
6 Jan, 08:09 PM Reply Like
•
obieephyhm,
Yeah, I never had any wish to move any further north than Iowa. Winters in both are hard, but as HTL points out, at least we had the equipment to deal with it and the right clothes to wear. The real reason they put off school for two hours tomorrow around here isn't as much that it's going to be cold as it is that most kids don't have the kinds of heavy clothes you need to wear when it is that cold. I remember one winter in Des Moines when it was so cold that my heavy coat made a creaking noise as I walked in it from the parking lot to my work door. The temp was so cold it was freezing the material. I would get to the front door, open my coat and watch the steam rise.
6 Jan, 09:27 PM Reply Like
•
It was like that when I grew up.I was the captain of the school patrol at the tender age of 9.Had my white belt and badge. All the kids walked to school, only the farm kids rode the school bus...I guess too much to expect them to walk 10 miles each way (wimps!!). Can you imagine the horror on little mommies faces now if their children had to walk a half a mile to school? And nobody, but NOBODY rode to school in their mom's car. I remember that blizzard of 78 too. I was working at a radio station in Lexington, KY. Not a lot of snow removal equipment so we had to rent 4 wheel drives to get everyone to work. (There's a great old tv spot where a guy gets ready to go out the door, gets in his snowplow and drives to work...he did mornings at the local radio station!!)
6 Jan, 10:20 PM Reply Like
•
I did my thesis work during three summers on top of the Greenland Ice sheet where it got down to -25 F at "night" (the sun never set) and we slept in tents. It was about 20% science and 80% shoveling snow. I miss those days. It's all a matter of dressing properly. One day it got up to +25F and we were playing volleyball in shorts.
7 Jan, 08:54 AM Reply Like
•
NGS, probably nothing like your experience in Greenland, but during basic training at Ft. Campbell, we bivouacked in our pup tents. It was 13 degrees and we pitched our pup tents on a half foot of snow. The Drill Instructors told us to take off our fatigues and lay them under our sleeping bags (between the bag and the poncho). I wasn't having any of that!I figured that sleeping in my fatigues would keep me warm! Woke up next morning pretty soaked in persperation. Those army sleeping bags are INSULATED! Rule one...always listen to your drill instructor (or SWMBO).
7 Jan, 09:54 AM Reply Like
•
@raleigh: When I went though Combat Survival School at Fairchild AFB (in Spokane) it as late December and it got down to -10 to -20 at night. We were toasty at night, but the hardest part the was in the morning and having to actually *unzip* your sleeping to actually dress.

I had remembered to bring some of the clothing *into* the sleeping back so it woundn't be like a block of ice to put on. Interestingly, once we got moving and the sun was up, most of us walked in t-shirts.

Those were the days...... sigh....
7 Jan, 11:33 AM Reply Like
•
I remember being in central MN with my late father-in-law watching the kids playing in the snow on the family farm many years ago. He was a tall, thin and quiet, second-generation german farmer -- dairy farmer -- even though he hated it (he did wonderful cabinetry and hand-carvings). He been a young adult farmer working for his father and six uncles during the depression. His father lived in the house, the uncles lived in the barn -- year round.

He truly was one of those who walked ten miles -- or worked his trap-line in snowshoes for fifteen miles -- to get to school and back. He dropped out after 8th grade to farm full time. He was one of the smartest and best of all the men I've known throughout my life. He never stopped learning. Never stopped reading. He died while reading a book.

I miss him.

(sorry for the OT post -- just letting the brain wander unsupervised -- he would have loved reading about Axion and Epower!!)
7 Jan, 03:33 PM Reply Like
•
Obieephyhm, My worst cold experience was in my youth checking trap lines before school. Fell in the water up to my neck about 5 miles from the nearest house. It was 11 degrees below. When I got about 1-2 miles toward home I started to feel warmer. I knew to run faster. When I got home I bent only at the knees and the elbows. Cried like a baby thawing out but nothing long term.

I was fortunate to have witnessed and shared in part a similar live style to the one you describe. The level of independence and diverse skill set that it demands is far different than many of us can imagine today. Most people will adapt and do what needs to be done but there are those that excel for sure.

I feel like I share your loss having one that rhymes.
7 Jan, 04:02 PM Reply Like
•
And to this day, folks here in Rhode Island still clean out the supermarkets of bread and milk every time snow of any sort is predicted!
7 Jan, 10:23 PM Reply Like
•
I'll send you some warm feelings. 80 here in FL.
6 Jan, 12:12 PM Reply Like
• You better send them quick Masi because the cold front is currently moving through Tampa and it's supposed to hit 34º tonight with a high of 48º tomorrow. Fribourg Switzerland, in contrast, is supposed to hit 37º tonight with a high of 54º tomorrow.
6 Jan, 12:41 PM Reply Like
•
I am off to Morocco, my home country in a few days. We have a heat wave issue there with temperatures in January hitting mid 60s.

Will spare a thought for you guys, or two while on the beach ;)
6 Jan, 02:09 PM Reply Like
• I do hope you're not talking about 60º C?
6 Jan, 02:15 PM Reply Like
•
No, Fahrenheit, although on occasion it could reach above the 50 degrees Celcius in Marrakech around 1pm. I have experienced the high forties and it is not pleasant!
6 Jan, 02:32 PM Reply Like
•
Hi guys,
I looked at volume a moment ago and it looks like someone threw a party and nobody showed up. Is there a problem with the OTC board again?
6 Jan, 01:30 PM Reply Like
• Stilldazed: Not that I can see. Just the usual participants scrapping over a few hundredths of a penny. When ARCA showed up at 09:57, I think everyone knew to "wait for it, just wait for it".

ARCA left at 14:06, but they're still waiting for it.

HardToLove
6 Jan, 02:40 PM Reply Like
•
If Subaru is the "Asian Automaker" that was previously mentioned but not named, this could bode well. Especially if they switch to a more robust chemistry that can take a hit without bursting into flames..
http://bit.ly/1a0ZdSa
6 Jan, 01:39 PM Reply Like
•
Hi GT,
Cool animation of WWII, but nothing about Subaru.
6 Jan, 01:56 PM Reply Like
•
http://aol.it/19XGeLs
oops ... this one.
6 Jan, 03:50 PM Reply Like
•
You know what? It bothers me that our US Military is spending US tax dollars on non US vehicles. Our tax dollars should be supporting US manufacturers.
6 Jan, 05:04 PM Reply Like
•
>Masi ... There is not enough manufacturing in the USA to support out war machine. I can't think of any weapons system that isn't built or supplied within our borders. Some of the small stuff ... just maybe but not enough to fight a sustained conflict. Rummy said "You go to War with the military you got" and what he left out is the USA would win or loss because what we got is all we got. There is no way to replenish spent materials unless we pick our enemies very carefully.
6 Jan, 05:22 PM Reply Like
•
DRich, I totally agree and this, like you said has been the case for about two decades. I think it's foolish, scary and unpatriotic.
6 Jan, 05:31 PM Reply Like
•
>Masi ... Corporations don't believe in this quaint concept of Citizenship. Our laws concerning taxation & procurement reflect that the people that run the government don't believe it either ... unless their talking directly to the people ... dumb enough to believe.
6 Jan, 05:35 PM Reply Like
•
Guys,

First comment on the article:

"Correction to the article: The ULV is a series hybrid vehicle. The Subaru engine drives a generator that provides charge for the two electric motors and battery. Do note that Subaru had no part of the development of the vehicle."

Also: http://1.usa.gov/1kmKRFC

Looks to be that rarest of beasts: An actual government-design prototype.

(Seeing this must make Carderock guys insanely jealous...;)
6 Jan, 05:39 PM Reply Like
• "Utah Gun Maker Turns Down \$15M Deal With Pakistan"

http://abcn.ws/1bLRgji

Always exceptions.

HardToLove
6 Jan, 05:49 PM Reply Like
•
Masi,

Actually, Subaru is an American manufacturer. Basically all of their cars sold in North America are produced in Indiana.

http://bit.ly/19O0Gkp

Similarly, my current "foreign" German luxury car is manufactured in Spartanburg SC.

One of the major US car makers is now owned by the Italians, who are willing to keep the beast alive.

It just does not make much sense anymore to complain about the globalization of the auto industry. It benefits us all.

If Subaru ends up getting a contract to produce light military vehicles, you can bet the contract will require that they are made in our congresscritters' home districts.
6 Jan, 07:36 PM Reply Like
•
Did anyone click the link to the Oshkosh Heavy hybrid transport truck? Claims to be a series hybrid with ultracapacitors. Maybe we need to give them a call. Heck if I had a PbC I would just drive one up there and show it to them. The regular version of those trucks roll by here all day.
6 Jan, 07:51 PM Reply Like
•
I grew up in Oshkosh and one of my better friends had a parent that worked for Truck while we were growing up, I wonder if that's still the case...

OT: My father did very well for himself buying some Truck (OSK) back in late 2008 and early 2009.

Edit: She does still work there. I'm not sure of her exact function but I'll do some digging.
6 Jan, 08:22 PM Reply Like
•
Thanx for the info SM. I knew Toyota and I think Mercedes but somehow never heard that Subaru was building cars here.
7 Jan, 11:21 AM Reply Like
•
It is surprising to many, but all of the major Asian carmakers have assembly plants in North America, in some pretty diverse places: http://nyti.ms/1lNqOM5
7 Jan, 03:13 PM Reply Like
•
>SMaturin ... Emphasis on "Assembly"
7 Jan, 03:39 PM Reply Like
•
True, some make the engines and transmissions elsewhere, but put it all together here with parts from everywhere. But many of them also are making the engines here now, as well.

I love driving my American-made car with a high-tech German engine and eight-speed transmission.
7 Jan, 03:51 PM Reply Like
•
SMaturin,
I assume for most of them it is a matter of cost. It is cheaper to assemble and sell the cars here for the local market than it is to assemble and ship them from another country. Plus it builds a lot of local goodwill towards the company for the jobs it brings to communities.
8 Jan, 10:48 AM Reply Like
•
HTL -

Looks like CPST had a nice 24MW order from BPC engineering.
6 Jan, 02:21 PM Reply Like
• Stefan: Yep. I posted it in the QC this A.M. and another site I frequent.

Russia, specifically BPC, is one of the *long* time best customers of CPST and we knew this would be coming for a while as other news over the last year detailed pressurazion of pipelines and local electrical supply for some new territories serviced by BPC.

Took long enough to show up though. I suspect it has to do with construction being done outside of the harsh winters over there.

If I'm correct on that, these might be shipping in 3-6 months, instead of the usual 12 months or so, and should show up in both the order backlog, which I suspect was needed to avoid showing a reduction for the first time in a long while, and in AR q4 (maybe - ends in March) or Q1 or Q2 of next FY, which begins in April.

That'll be nice because it increases the odds that management's call for no more financing needed will hold true.

HardToLove
6 Jan, 02:49 PM Reply Like
•
I think it could be reasonably argued I’ve been fairly bearish in some of my comments recently. The primary reason for that is because I’ve been fretting about the potential for a near-term liquidity crisis developing, perhaps as early as this month. Piggybacking on some of this fretting has been some of my criticism of TG & Co. whom I've believed to be responsible for this situation.

But I have to say I’m feeling greatly relieved since word came down about the renegotiations with the PIPRs. Though I don’t understand it all (does anybody?), it seems clear to me the potential near-term liquidity crisis has definitely been forestalled for now. It seems more and more likely that any necessary capital raise won’t happen as soon as I had feared, and I’m thinking probably not until Q4 at the earliest. So in my mind, the “runway” feels like it’s definitely been extended (should I say thank you TG?).

NGS, I totally understand your initial reaction to the new terms of the PIPE deal, indicating even more shares would be issued. I had a similar reaction, with it feeling like another punch in the gut after already having dealt with so many indignities (perhaps only some of longer-term holders can fully relate to this). But I’m definitely thankful it’s happened, and view it as “a purchasing and investment decision” buying us more valuable time at a very critical juncture.

So now that I’m feeling less stressed, I intend to “cool my jets” on some of my criticisms. Though I think they’ve been warranted, I think it’s time for me (and other bears?) to give this all a chance to play out over the coming months. There’s so much to be hopeful for, and I’m looking forward with anticipation to continuing to receive play by play, and always current, ePower information and data (thank you very much JP!). Should make for a very interesting ride.
6 Jan, 03:53 PM Reply Like
• I wish Barood had bought his chunk today - looks like we'll close with only \$16361.90 traded today.

<*sigh*>

Plug one leak in the damn (sic) and spring another!

HardToLove
6 Jan, 03:59 PM Reply Like
•
HTL, Just imagine seeing them writing another contract revision this week or next. Uggh.
6 Jan, 04:28 PM Reply Like
• Low trading volumes for the last two days are not an issue because Volume Failures only count if they fall in the 15 trading days prior to a determination date. The last determination date has already passed and the next one doesn't arrive till the end of the month.
6 Jan, 04:46 PM Reply Like
•
And on top of that, it takes 4 weak trading days to trigger the failure, so in effect only 15 - 3 = 12 days need to meet the trading min each period.
6 Jan, 06:06 PM Reply Like
•
Htl,

I will be buying 100k shares through January, the next batch will start early february.
6 Jan, 07:27 PM Reply Like
• Barood; if it stabilizes around here I might finally start to burn some of my powder too. I just got sick and tired of watching it fall and realizing the opportunity cost.

So I started using some powder in things that added to my cache and will be able to add more than I had targeted ... if I finally decide I want to do that. I don't want to end as much overly concentrated as I had been a few times in the past.

HardToLove
7 Jan, 08:58 AM Reply Like
•
Stefan, as one of the other bears on the board lately, I have tended to agree with your criticisms. I think you, drich, and amouna, tend to be the ones most in touch with the reality of the situation Axion is facing. I agree that the revised pipe deal is better than the alternative of having to pay up in cash.

I will try to "cool my jets" also, but it is hard sometimes when certain new people come on here spewing technical nonsense that amounts to "look I made a chart that points up so it is a good time to buy," and claiming they plan to spend an entire \$30k bonus on buying a ten cent stock. That kind of posting smells of a pump-and-dump scheme to me and my senses are hightened to that sort of thing these days.

I think it all sums up to the following: Axion needs those significant sales to materialize in Q1 and a clearer path to a revenue ramp by Q2 or we can expect to get killed in the next capital raise.
6 Jan, 04:09 PM Reply Like
•
NGS,

I think Axion's management understands at this very moment that it is walking a very tight rope as it is about to have firsthand feedback from wannabe Tier-1 customers about its PbC product.

While BMW and NS have spent countless man-hour and monies torturing the battery and testing it to death, it is not a done deal until the pen meets the paper and contracts are signed. At least this is how I and many others here see it!

Guess I have had too many heartaches in the past and I am simply shielding myself from possible disappointment by keeping eyes open and stepping aside from my emotional attachment to the company. After all, emotions mixed with money matters are no good. For the time being, everything seems to be going the way it is supposed to go.
6 Jan, 04:43 PM Reply Like
•
Ngs again,

Would you mind sharing your average price for axpw, if not, I speculate it is higher than 50 cents. Now if you consider 10 cents is riskier than the price you paid for, you definitely need to give your head a shake.

If you think my arguments are nonsense, why waste your time reading them?

After all my accumulation is complete, I am expecting my average to be close to 11-12 cents. I understand my risk and will tolerate any outcome without any emotional harm. If you envy my situation, that is your problem to care of.
6 Jan, 06:21 PM Reply Like
•
ngs,

I think your timeline might be slightly crunched (not by much, if at all) but your last paragraph hits the proverbial nail on the head. Sell some darn batteries and the rest will take care of itself. Maybe even let us know who bought them! ... Okay, I won't push my luck.
6 Jan, 06:56 PM Reply Like
•
Barood,

Do your thing and scarf up Axion shares at the ridiculously low prices, but please don't be pompous about it and derisive of those who discovered and were drawn to the story earlier and are sitting on fewer shares, with commensurately large unrealized losses, than you can now afford.
7 Jan, 12:05 AM Reply Like
•
Understood, I will limit my contribution here to asking questions, if needed. Thanks
7 Jan, 01:07 AM Reply Like
•
My cost basis is in the low .20's at present. However. My risk for the shares I currently hold is the same as your risk on the shares you currently hold. You seem to think that it matters that your down side is only 10 cents. In actuality, your down side is 100 percent.
7 Jan, 10:02 AM Reply Like
•
I don't agree on the 100 percent risk downside. Your risk is the decay described by the regression line. This is a zero liability business, and the liquidation value at this moment is not far from what I am paying for.
7 Jan, 01:22 PM Reply Like
•
My risk is calculated from today forward. What has been lost is already lost. It is a sunk cost and should not be used to affect judgements about the future. This is a basic accounting principle. Every day I decide not to sell my 70k shares its as good as if I bought them that day for their current market value. That is, every day I have a choice between the market value in cash and keeping the shares.

Perhaps you've never had the pleasure of riding a stock into bankrupcy or through a liquidity crisis. Shareholders are lucky to come out of those situations still holding 5% of the company, regardless of what "liquidation value" is. Things like intellectual property are always drastically undervaled in crisis situations. Plus, they are burning through \$2M a quarter, further eating into your liquidation value. The next round of capitalization could easily push this stock down below a penny if there are no sales on the horizon. Regression lines are meaningless in this situation. The "decay" will be proportional to the speed of the printing press that is pumping out new shares and that, my good fellow is accelerating with each drop in price.

Of course, as I have said repeatedly, selling some danged batteries--tens of thousands of them-- could drastically help the situation.
7 Jan, 02:29 PM Reply Like
•
That's why Warren Buffet doesn't agree with the business school. The cheaper the price, the less is your risk assuming same business conditions. While business school look at return variance to extrapolate risk,
7 Jan, 04:01 PM Reply Like
•
With that logic, I guess every company should do a stock split to get their share price down to ten cents. It will reduce risk, right?
8 Jan, 09:10 AM Reply Like
•
NGS - I think your last statement sums it up. It all depends on how much runway we have and if TG can close something "significant" or meaningful.

The number of shares outstanding will have gone from approximately 80-90M to 210-230M depending on how many defaults there are. *not including warrants.

Those are simply the facts.
6 Jan, 04:30 PM Reply Like
• FINRA is missing 106,250 shares of trade in today's short sales report. With today's buy:sell of 2.64:1 (70.29% "buys"), I also suspect the 13,600 (08.33%) reported short is missing some too, since high buy percentage generally means high daily short sales volume and percentage.

Just the excuse I needed to defer my EOD stuff - I'm still tired.

Will I defer all of it? I don't know - it sounds very attractive.

With low volume, all we might get from it would be suspect anyway.

HardToLove
6 Jan, 05:57 PM Reply Like
•
Hi Stefan, Re: "It all depends on how much runway we have..."

I couldn't agree with you more. I've long thought this is the key, and is why I think these "renegotiation terms" are so huge, and has changed my outlook dramatically. I've been fretting over the possibility of a disastrous PIPE II for the past few months as we’ve inched closer to .10, and felt that if we breached that, we could potentially be looking at an “obstructed” runway as short as 1-3 months. It seems these new terms have now given us a much clearer runway of at least 6-9 months or longer.

To me this is at a minimum a tripling of the length of the runway, and represents the biggest shift in the risk/reward ratio of owning Axion since the implications of the PIPE deal became clear to me last June (thankfully for the better this time). I take a back seat to no one when it comes to being able to play out pessimistic scenarios in my mind, but now that the landscape has shifted with TG’s latest maneuver, I’m far more optimistic.

I’m not sure how much credit to give TG for this, but it seems to me he did exactly what he had to do. And I hope he/Axion take FULL advantage of this extra time. I’ve been critical of him at times, but given the current circumstances, I think in this instance, he got it exactly right, and it bodes well for Axion shareholders going forward.
6 Jan, 09:34 PM Reply Like
•
Wayne, your 6-9 month runway is contingent on the share price staying above 0.09. Let's hope that holds for the February PIPE dump.
7 Jan, 10:06 AM Reply Like
•
Jp/iin or anyone,

I would like to hear your opinion on ultracapacitor combined with lead acid battery, how does it compete with pbc economically and on technological fitness for different applications.

It looks to me based on what I am reading, it's very plausible substitute. What do you think?

As always, your work is appreciated.
6 Jan, 11:04 PM Reply Like
•
I think lead-acid combined with ultracapacitors will be our primary competition in the automotive start-stop arena. Initial cost for a VRLA plus UC is probably somewhat comparable to PbC cost. But, since UCs last practically forever, future maintenance could be a bit cheaper if the VRLA battery can be replaced separately from the UC. It would not surprise me if BMW is checking out these options before deciding which way to go. That might explain the delay.
7 Jan, 10:11 AM Reply Like
• At last year's ELBC the University of Sheffield presented the results of their comparison of four alternatives; and AGM battery, an AGM battery with a 300 Farad ultracapacitor, an AGM battery with a 2,400 Farad ultracapacitor and an Ultrabattery. I published an Instablog with a link to their presentation here:

http://bit.ly/SqgaBZ

The 300 Farad ultracap gave the integrated system 33.3 F of capacitance and the 2,400 Farad ultracap gave the integrated system 417 F of capacitance.

A 12-volt PbC, in comparison, has 13,000 F of capacitance.

The basic problem with the ultracap solutions is they provide enough energy to ensure an engine restart without a voltage sag (300 amp seconds) but they leave the entire hotel load energy drain (3,000 amp seconds) on the AGM battery which has the same dynamic charge acceptance fade with or without the ultracap.

I don't see an AGM ultracap system as a vibrant competitor given the needs of the automakers. Others may have different views.
7 Jan, 10:32 AM Reply Like
•
JP,

So you think Auto manufacturers are doing a mistake by implementing UC + Lead-acid batter, like Nissan is probably doing.
7 Jan, 01:43 PM Reply Like
• I think the combined AGM-ultracap systems are a step up from AGM alone, but I know they're not a solution because the primary burden of providing hotel load energy and recovering that energy in preparation for the next engine-off cycle is dumped on an AGM battery that rapidly loses it's dynamic charge acceptance capacity.

At last fall's ELBC I spent some time with Ford's manager of battery R&D and we discussed the issue at length. He agreed that flooded and AGM batteries (with and without ultracaps) can't hold up to the demands of stop-start. He also explained that fewer than 10% of owners care enough about that particular functionality to demand warranty service as system performance declines. When given a choice between spending \$100 more per vehicle to avoid a problem or spending an average of \$10 per vehicle for warranty claims, the warranty claims are cheaper.

This dynamic can't continue for the long term because the automakers are promoting stop-start as a pollution control system and when the technology is widespread enough, the regulators are certain to mandate recurring performance evaluations. When that happens the automakers will be forced to take their game up a couple levels, but for the next couple years it's hard to fault a decision to do the cheap thing instead of the right thing, particularly if you're actively trying to move the right thing along the development path to a point where it's available in relevant volumes at reasonable prices.
7 Jan, 03:00 PM Reply Like
•
Excellent! I am copying this response to my private files so I don't loose it. I was imagining the situation exactly the way you put it up. I speculate the google trends in battery problems are due to what you described.

Thank you Sir!
7 Jan, 04:40 PM Reply Like
•
JP

I wonder what the boffins at Consumers Reports might have to say about that??
7 Jan, 06:14 PM Reply Like
•
I would not be surprised to discover our new CFO had a hand in the renegotiation and apparent runway extension

Perhaps the first of a series of important negotiations

7 Jan, 08:38 AM Reply Like
•
<<<<<<I would not be surprised to discover our new CFO had a hand in the renegotiation and apparent runway extension>>>&...

@dlmca: I had never thought of that... good point
7 Jan, 09:37 AM Reply Like
•
@dlmca,

Isn't that the CFO's job? :)
7 Jan, 10:52 AM Reply Like
•
Not sure if this is On or Off Topic: " Plug Power to develop fuel cell range extenders for FedEx (FDX) Express electric delivery trucks (PLUG) : Co announced it will develop hydrogen fuel cell range extenders for 20 FedEx (FDX) Express electric delivery trucks, allowing FedEx Express to nearly double the amount of territory the vehicles can cover with one charge. This \$3 mln project is funded by the US Department of Energy and includes project partners FedEx Express, Plug Power and Smith Electric Vehicles. The resulting hybrid vehicles will be powered by lithium-ion batteries and a 10-kilowatt Plug Power hydrogen fuel cell system. The fuel cell solution is based on Plug Power's GenDrive Series 1000 product architecture."
7 Jan, 09:26 AM Reply Like
•
Thotdoc,
I love projects like this. FedEx probably wouldn't have done this if they had to pay for the system itself, but if we the taxpayers are willing to pay for it, then they are more than happy to take the credit for being green.
7 Jan, 10:25 AM Reply Like
•
LabTech. Yep. It's like the article posted about the not ready for prime time hybrid buses. The public entity, airport, buys more than one and they have problems. What do they do? Heck, they buy more!. Disney, the private entity, buys ONE and they have problems. What do they do? They say, see ya later. Now, which one would you suggest was guided by the concern of making the right use of limited resources? Oh, That's right. Only one of the two entities realizes they only have limited resources.
7 Jan, 11:25 AM Reply Like
•
The good news for AXPW is that PLUG was also a beaten down dog in energy storage until it hockey-sticked with news of sales, a hint at profitability, and now the Fedex/govt. project. With ePower already on the menu, in my mind AXPW is where they were 3 mos. ago, but with a way better balance sheet and more niches to fill.

FWIW - Perhaps someone who is tech adept could post a "Is AXPW the next PLUG" SA article while PLUG is hot and in the news?
7 Jan, 03:27 PM Reply Like
•
thotdoc, you’ve mentioned the power of sentiment in moving stocks, & how FCEL educated you in the sometimes long process of changing an investment perception in a company. PLUG is another example of what happens when sentiment changes from pessimism to optimism. PLUG’s 52 wk low =’s \$0.1155. With today’s PLUG’s FDX announcement, up approx 40%, & it reached a trading high of \$4.14. PLUG’s 3mo avg trading volume =’s 8.7 mil. Today’s volume > 121.9 mil shares. Now, if only AXPW would actually book some significant sales, that could help change the investment community’s sentiment on the company….

Ps. I had PLUG, BLDP & FCEL on one of my long unattended watch lists. Your write up on FCEL fueled a re-look. I chose FCEL & got in @ \$1.39, & it’s up 15% today @ \$1.86. Thanks for the FCEL write up. A rising industry sentiment tide raises all ships. One problem with AXPW is: What industry are we in & how do we promote it? The battery industry? The energy storage industry? The Green energy industry? This is where Vani Dantam needs to step up.
7 Jan, 04:28 PM Reply Like
•
For comparison purposes, PLUG has a 102M shares outstanding.
7 Jan, 05:22 PM Reply Like
•
I'd take 2 bucks instead of 4 from here. Heck, I'd be ecstatic at \$1.

IMO, 1-2 bucks happens around confirmation of NSC and BMW business. One dollar for one, two dollars for both.

We should see 40 - 60 cents if ePower and PC orders roll in and extend a PIPE free lifeline into 2015.

I think the odds of a similar chart to PLUG in 2014 is very good, with ePower and PC in spring, NSC in summer, and BMW in fall.
7 Jan, 06:36 PM Reply Like
•
I'd take a break in the standard happy dance then disappointment mold. Heck it's getting old. Don't ya think one of these ghosts needs to eventually solidify and show itself. Or are they playing pin the tail on the Axionista at BMW and NSC. Beginning to think I don't know "Jack" but feel like one instead.

Threw the chicken bones and the tarot cards away as a New Year resolution. Think I'll go buy a lottery card. Then I'll get what I expect. ;-(

PS OK, No we're getting closer to a bottom jokes! lol
7 Jan, 06:59 PM Reply Like
•
If it doesn't happen this year, then it's time to throw in the towel. It might be a natural business cycle of sorts, as 2012 had some real crises in Europe and 2013 everybody thought a market correction was overdue. 2014 now people are finally starting to talk like 2009 is history, the market is at highs, and jobs starting to pick up. If we had some hesitation about big risky spending at NSC and BMW, 2014 is the year for them.
7 Jan, 07:06 PM Reply Like
•

G
7 Jan, 08:11 PM Reply Like
•
@Ranma: I'd be ecstatic at .40c at this point....
7 Jan, 09:48 PM Reply Like
•
I've been working on an instablog that will be roughly along those lines. My focus will be on the length of time it takes customer relationships to evolve to the significant revenue stage. The very preliminary over-generalized bottom line is that Axion is more likely to be three years away from the point you mention than it is to be three months away.
8 Jan, 10:33 AM Reply Like
•
I haven't read all of this yet, but at the least so far looks like it could (perhaps) offer a few useful parallels (and contrasts) to our own (OTCQB:AXPW) saga... both that which is past, that which we are right now living through, and that which is yet to come...

http://seekingalpha.co...

money quote: "Godspeed, cowboy."
8 Jan, 04:23 PM Reply Like
•
48 -

Good article and IMO a comparison also, except that Axion has seemingly issued many more shares if the 102M PLUG shares outstanding I referenced is correct.

<begin snark> Now if only we knew where to find some hype. Maybe we could get Elon Musk to join the board? <end snark>
8 Jan, 05:06 PM Reply Like
• PLUG's big problem is a \$7 million quarterly cash burn compared to Axion's burn of under \$2 million. Look at the numbers on a per share basis and PLUG looks pretty darned ugly to be carrying a \$250 million market cap.
8 Jan, 05:10 PM Reply Like
•
AP - Great thesis for the instablog. A lack of stock "pop" by CAFE 2016 would spell real trouble. AXPW reminds me of a batter facing a major league knuckle-baller. The ball has already been thrown, we know its coming. All that remains is when and from what direction the pitch will arrive; then can AXPW hit it out of the park? Look forward to the blog.
8 Jan, 06:14 PM Reply Like
•
Me too, my wife can sell half her shares and book a small profit.
8 Jan, 06:19 PM Reply Like
•
JP - I agree, PLUG looks very ugly when dialing into the numbers, but there it is. Would love to see some of that momentum come our way.
8 Jan, 06:36 PM Reply Like
• FINRA got their file updated and now has the correct trade volume, along with the additional daily short sales I suspected would appear.

Prior short reported was 13600 and the new value is 56675. This takes short percentage from 8.33%, which I was sure was low (didn't fit the behavior pattern) to 34.72%, which does fit the behavior pattern.

I guess I'll have to get yesterday's EOD stuff shaped up. It will take a while.

For anyone else that checks the FINRA stuff, the updated file has a slightly different URL than the normal file.

http://bit.ly/1bNMKRm

HardToLove
7 Jan, 11:14 AM Reply Like
•
Mo power required. And you aren't going to want a random drop dead LAB in your vehicle when you're running this stuff. You'll need redundancy and controlled failure modes.

Voice activation on. "Bummer, err Twiki, take me to the dry cleaner and then the spa."

"Beedy beedy beep. OK Buck"

BMW previews future driver assistance and connected vehicle developments at CES, including more automated driving

http://bit.ly/19Q7EW5

So are they going to stay with AGM to support this future world stuff? Is lithium ion going to come down in price and become safe? Fuel cells free for all? Flywheels safe?

http://bit.ly/19Q7EW8
7 Jan, 12:18 PM Reply Like
•
Seriously, time for BMW to come out and admit it, just like Jay Bowman did. They can't do it without the PbC.

D
7 Jan, 12:37 PM Reply Like
•
Way more power! That electrical steering is is quite amazing and their cruise control has come a long way baby. Cameras to assist in that cruise control and cameras to detect pedestrians or vehicles exiting driveways. Added to that, a whole array of distance sensors. Other brands are talking electric motor powered air conditioning compressors and electric power steering. Plus all the goodies inside the car which now include Personal Computers and display. All these additions to the electrical load make it look better and better for Axion Power.
7 Jan, 01:03 PM Reply Like
•
Concur. They should just take the mass/volume hit, suck it up, and move out. If they ever do move to 12/48V consider that for a couple of hundred pounds, 4x PbC's would give them (@200 amps coming and going) a full 8KW / 2KWh to work with for their electrification budget. That's a lot of Christmas lights. And would provide it in a safe, robust, durable package that doesn't require thermal coddling. In short, they need to fully commit to and embrace the PbC (queen of hearts) and scorn shiny Li-Ion (the queen of diamonds) once and for all. Put a ring on it BMW and start building out your family!
7 Jan, 01:19 PM Reply Like
•
Hi Masi,
My concern is about these electrified cars 3 years to five years down the road. All these gizmos (sorry for the technical terms) running electric? More to go wrong, what kind of redundant systems are there?

Currently, if your power brakes or power steering go out you still have brakes and steering thru mechanical and hydraulic set ups as they are power assist. If the anti-lock feature goes out, you still have power brakes. Once this all goes electric with pumps and compressors any sort of electrical problem could leave you in a vey dangerous situation with drivers having less skills as they become dependent on the automated tech. I think we are beginning to see these kinds of problems come up in the aviation industry. To much pilot dependence on auto controls and everything is fly-by-wire, no computer or electrical and it's drop like a fast moving rock time or more accidents like the one in San Francisco.
7 Jan, 01:32 PM Reply Like
•
Still,

No doubt GOOGLE will sort that out in due course.
7 Jan, 02:44 PM Reply Like
•
I can't even get my electric windows to stay working.
7 Jan, 09:37 PM Reply Like
•
Is that in the retromeanderthal mobile?
7 Jan, 09:41 PM Reply Like
•
I hear what your saying that you can still use your brakes if the power assist goes out. You have to press the pedal much harder but not much harder than when we had regular brakes. The same with power steering. If the belt broke or the pump failed you can still steer the car if it was moving but trying to park is a workout. I don't see any change in that aspect because of a switch from mechanical pumps to electrical pumps.

Now I'm not referring to the automatic/computer controlled things like in the BMW article ii posted. All those sensors and one camera I mentioned are there for the cruise control. Other cameras were to detect people or objects jumping out in front of you which would then apply the brakes with a reaction time faster than a humans.

I am unaware of the San Fran accident you are referring to but I feel your concern may be premature.
7 Jan, 02:01 PM Reply Like
•
San Francisco plane crash caused by pilot's inexperience with onboard computers

http://bit.ly/19QpDf8
7 Jan, 02:04 PM Reply Like
•
Thanx ii.
SD,That pilot was in training. Not the same thing as a pilot who knows how to fly a plane and no way a comparison to a car on the ground.

"Summarizing an interview with the Lee, who was in training at the time of the accident, the NTSB notes the pilot "believed the auto-throttle should have come out of the idle position to prevent the airplane going below the minimum speed ... that was the theory at least, as he understood it." Sadly, that wasn't the case.
If you really think about it, it was a two pilot error. But that was a knowledge error on the part of the trainee. Shit, that means I can fly a plane as good as he can.

We all have to take driving tests before we get a license.
7 Jan, 02:22 PM Reply Like
•
Masi,
The instructor pilot was found to be lacking in the needed skills for a manual landing also. When we become so dependent on tech that we lose, or worse, never develop the needed skills to handle an emergency situation, we are in trouble. You are correct, for autos I am early, that's why I gave a 3-5 year timeframe after electrification. ten to twenty years after this event and nobody will know what to do with an electrical shut down.
7 Jan, 02:40 PM Reply Like
•
Sd, I may be wrong but don;t pilots have to learn how to fly a prop plane before the get into a jetliner chair? I HOPE!
On another note, a jetliner is going down if ALL the redundent backups fail because a pilot could never fly one of those mechanically. Way to big. I don't see that happening with cars. Well, I guess if there is all kinda assistance parking a car maybe. But there are many people who can't park now even with power steering.
7 Jan, 02:53 PM Reply Like
•
At least we made the \$40k threshold today. I was a little disappointed NS didn't announce today. I secretly picked today in my own personal date picking thing.
7 Jan, 02:44 PM Reply Like
•
California's roadmap to rebalancing its grid. Article from Greentechmedia:

http://bit.ly/1ar9LtO

Section towards the end says:

"As for FERC Order 755, which provides more money to fast-reacting resources, the ISO is still working out the details for implementing its version of the rules, which could have a significant positive effect on automated demand response’s economic competitiveness in the state.
"

My guess is CA will be without a doubt a major customer region for the PowerCube, it just seems that the regulatory framework has yet to become clear before investment in the area starts!
7 Jan, 03:11 PM Reply Like
•
Would we have to work with PJM to install Power Cubes in the CA market? I do believe they handle the northeast and around the great lakes region. In the previous concentrator #293, the very last entry, Nathan Kemalyan MD raises some very good questions about CA and some that would include Hospitals nation wide.
7 Jan, 03:42 PM Reply Like
• Monday's EOD stuff.
01/06/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
# Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 17300, Vol: 163250, AvTrSz: 5830
Min. Pr: 0.0990, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1039
# Sells, Shares: 7 43500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1031
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1020
Buy:Sell 2.64:1 (70.29% "buys"), DlyShts 56675 (34.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 130.29%

For the second consecutive day we were not able to trade \$40K today - finished at \$16961.10 vs. \$33,048.89 yesterday.

Don't forget that as of 1/3/2014, I'm be using the 80% calculation.

The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is \$0.0849 vs. \$0.0852 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is \$0.0831 vs \$0.0798 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

My tracking through 1/2/2014 had the average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% of \$0.0912 vs. \$0.0918, \$0.0923, \$0.0927, \$0.0935, \$0.0943 (\$0.0942 sans two trades), \$0.0949, \$0.0955, \$0.0961 and \$0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is \$0.0852 vs. \$0.0877, \$0.0883, \$0.0823, \$0.0825, \$0.0851 (\$0.0838 sans two trades), \$0.0869, \$0.0881, \$0.0883 and \$0.0921 on prior days.

Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.88%, 6.47%, 4.15%, -50.72% and -45.98% respectively. Price spread today was 8.08%.

Because the volume was so low I'll skip the traditional TA stuff.

The buy percentage today was excessive. Unfortunately because it was without volume and some other factors strengthening we can't read much into it.

Not much other than statistics and trade breakdown in the blog here.

http://seekingalpha.co...

HardToLove
7 Jan, 04:20 PM Reply Like
• OT: As some know I've been working with FINRA on encountered problems for some time. While working on the latest issue I informed them that it was unlikely that AXPW was the only symbol with the issues and reminded them of some of the other issues I had mentioned in the past that involved other symbols and other exchanges over the years.

They sent me this response. The thing to note, if you normally check these files yourself, is the regeneration of the files with an "X" suffix just ahead of the ".txt". This would only affect automated processes like mine. For those who check manually use the files with "Updated" next to them.

Keep in mind they won't be available until the next morning.

=======================
Thank you Bill. After conferring with our developers, it appears the discrepancies are caused by server issues, similar to what was experienced a few months ago, and therefore not relegated to one symbol. We are scheduled to migrate ORF reporting to a new platform in a few months, and with it the data gathering servers will also be upgraded. As a "band-aid solution", we will be employing the backup process that generates updated files (files denoted with "X" at the end of the file name) early the following morning, every morning, until the new servers are in place.

The backup process is one where the data is gathered from alternate databases after overnight batch processes are run. These databases have the complete report data and should therefore reflect the volume figures you see real time from third party sources.

We apologize again for inconveniences this may have caused you, and as always appreciate your bringing this to our attention .
=======================

The normal location to find these files is here.
http://bit.ly/tdnpMf

Of particular interest to me will be whether the majority of volume discrepancies I see on a regular basis are ameliorated.

HardToLove
7 Jan, 05:19 PM Reply Like
•
Update on Nat Gas trucks: http://seekingalpha.co...
7 Jan, 05:43 PM Reply Like
•
Tahoe: Thanks for the NG article. I expect that that NG is going to get the bulk of the trucking market vs. efficiency solutions like ePower due to the high profile nature of the former (many industries and big players can gain) and the learning curve effects (Cummins commercially deployed 12 liter engine for example vs. ePower still pulling together disparate parts). Of course, once ePower type solutions climb this curve it is likely we'll see trucks combining natural gas and efficiency technologies. In the meantime, as JP has pointed out, the two technologies don't stack.

While NG vs. diesel gives a trucking company two fuels to choose from when route planning, I think the efficiency solution has a huge advantage in that since it is x% more efficient than diesel, which will be the mainstream fuel (from which freight pricing will be determined) for the foreseeable future, it won't be nearly as vulnerable to pricing fluctuations. That is, the economics of the investment won't be nearly as variable as is NG.

The only scenario that would impact efficiency would be if we went back to sub \$50/barrel oil.
8 Jan, 11:32 AM Reply Like
• I disagree with respect to the desirability of CNG in trucking. Our nation has nowhere near the infrastructure required for a predominantly CNG trucking fleet and it would take a decade or more to build adequate infrastructure. CNG will no doubt be a vibrant competitor for fleets that can use it, but it can't dominate the industry or the market.
8 Jan, 11:52 AM Reply Like
•
After spending too much time trying to figure out where the Norfolk Southern NS 999 locomotive was currently at, I had this crazy idea of asking Norfolk Southern where it is. within an hour I got my answer. I copy and pasted it here

It's in Altoona, Pa. We are upgrading the batteries, racks, and the charging/monitoring system.

Robin C. Chapman
Director Public Relations
Norfolk Southern Corporation

Thank you Ms. Chapman
7 Jan, 06:19 PM Reply Like
•
Excellent work!
7 Jan, 06:29 PM Reply Like
• Sorta takes the fun, as well as the angst, out of the process.

Great work though.

HardToLove
7 Jan, 06:48 PM Reply Like
•
kevin, brilliant! many thanks.
7 Jan, 06:49 PM Reply Like
•
Superb! Thanks Kevin.
7 Jan, 06:51 PM Reply Like
•
Also, do you think she knows when the 999 will be rolling? ... I'm only half joking.
7 Jan, 06:56 PM Reply Like
•

To what? Lithium-ion?!
7 Jan, 08:39 PM Reply Like
•
Good job, Kevin. Thx.

7 Jan, 10:25 PM Reply Like
•
kevin,
Thanks for the inquiry. Nothing really new here unfortunately, as this is what they and TG have been saying they were doing all of last year. Axion delivered the PbC batteries (which is what I assume they mean by upgrading the batteries [i.e. from the old AGMs]). The engine went into the shop. TG complained about problems with the racking system slowing the process down, and we can assume they needed to adapt the charging/monitoring system to the PbC's specifications. What we really don't know is why the thing left the shop and has been sitting out in the yard ever since!!! NS said they were going to have the thing running by the fourth quarter of last year, and now we have conspiracy theories that they've built another engine in Atlanta.

All in all, still no real answers.
8 Jan, 01:17 PM Reply Like
• If they did in fact build a second locomotive the last thing they'd do is give their PR department clearance to talk about it. I can imagine the conversation now, "Oh that hulk in Altoona is just a decoy and the real work is going on someplace else." Not bloody likely.
8 Jan, 03:26 PM Reply Like
•
John,
True, but all the statements they made would still be accurate. If I did believe the Atlanta conspiracy theory, then everything they told Kevin would be true, but not a direct answer. They "were" working on fixing the racking system, and updating the charging and monitoring system, so those facts would still be true. So if they did cart the first shipment of PbC batteries off to your secret engine in Atlanta, then the other statement would also be true, since they would be waiting for a new (but not yet ordered) set of PbC batteries for the NS999 at Altoona. I still can't make myself believe that, but it is still plausible.
8 Jan, 03:40 PM Reply Like
• I'm in no position to persuasively argue that NS has a second locomotive, but the existence of a second prototype in another location would go a long way toward explaining the apparent lack of activity on the unit we know about.
8 Jan, 03:44 PM Reply Like
•
Stefan,
Sorry, I meant Roanoke, not Atlanta. Thank you for the correction.
8 Jan, 03:52 PM Reply Like
•
NS took deliveries for batteries in two parts, though the second was significantly smaller. Why bother do that?
8 Jan, 03:56 PM Reply Like
• They bought a few more batteries than they needed for the switcher because they wanted to try them in other applications. What those applications were and how the trials are going is anybody's guess.
8 Jan, 04:14 PM Reply Like
•
The extra PbC batteries were for a Juniata shop Axionista perimeter taser. I saw the sign on the fence. "For info. on the NS 999 pee on fence."

Remember our mascot?

http://bit.ly/Qepw0s
-
Actually I was hoping they were using them to make their own loco starter battery hybrid like the Maxwell ultracap offered for trucking. Or that they used them in those first two Mi-Jack hybrid rubber tire gantry cranes they are testing. Better the locos though. Wishful thinking but not so far fetched given their knowledge about what the PbC battery could do for them in these two apps. I'm guessing they would know how to integrate the darn things in other areas to gain advantage.
8 Jan, 04:32 PM Reply Like
•
I usually sit in the yahoo board wondering why no one posts anything about AXPW most days. Any yet here you all are! Looks like I have been looking in the wrong places. Just to show my colours I post on yahoo as jamesnelson654321.

I am no technical expert but have followed axion for maybe 5 years. I have been in and out several times. Was even in when they had the BMW news announced (although I dont think BMW was actually mentioned directly). I am in now and have been for a month or so.

I just wanted to add some comments. There was a post about some guy spending his entire 30k bonus on a 10c stock and how it is pump and dump. I disagree. Axion is a little addictive as a stock. People keep on checking back on Axion. People essentially outsourcing their financial futures to Granville is possible. I sold my entire portfolio 18 months ago (including PLUG...nice move) but had to buy AXPW again. Yes high risk and the pipe has pushed the price so low, but if the technology seems sound and orders should come. Whether AXPW stays in business long enough to get those orders is yet to be seem.

Another point. Someone mentioned about AXPW being 3 months behind PLUG. I dont think so. I used to follow them quite closely. They have been getting orders for a few years. But the orders were coming in too slowly. Their uptake rate was very slow and their stock price and balance sheet got pummelled as a result. AXPW can afford that issue in its present state. I think AXPW is where PLUG was two or 3 years ago and hopefully uptake will be faster than PLUGs.

Would you mind if I took a quick survey? I think we all have the same question in our heads. No one knows the answer I presume but I would like to get people's opinions. The question is who is likely to place a large repeatable order with AXPW first. Is it 1) BMW 2) Powercube 3) NS or 4) ePower.

People try asking that question in round about ways every conference call. It never gets answered not suprisingly. Anyway, I am probably least qualified to answer of anyone here but if I was a gambling man (which I am) I would say
2) Powercube followed by
4) ePower then
1) BMW then
3) NS

I see NS as a marketing opportunity more than anything else and would move very slowly. Who knows about BMW. It has been so long since news appeared about that but if Granville says they are having meeting every 2 weeks still then it must still be a possibility. ePower is a strange one that Mr P. knows more that the rest of us. But I see that as an industry that can adopt quickly. If I owned a fleet it would take much to persuade me to strap a few batteries on a few trucks and see how they do. And it wouldnt take long to place a few more orders if I saw my fuel bills falling.
7 Jan, 07:35 PM Reply Like
•
1) PC 2) ePower 3) BMW 4) NS

PC is a no-brainer first because there has been some sales and TG promised more.

ePower is rolling out demo units which are impressing well according to JP. I look forward to follow on orders by summer.

BMW has involved a tiered supplier and talks with Axion bi-weekly. Could we be so lucky as to get a MY2015 rollout (iindelco?).

NSC - I would have placed them earlier than BMW, but they have taken so long to build the NS-999 that I can only imagine further delays as they build more trains. The only goal for 2014 that I am looking for on this front is an NS-999 demo with perhaps a small order for multi-train sample tests.

IMO 2014 will be a huge success just by making enough money to postpone a PIPE. Nothing appears to be a big breadwinner except if a BMW rollout is already in the works behind the scenes. I'm looking for some design win confirmation for 2014 only.
7 Jan, 07:47 PM Reply Like