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  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1417) | Send Message
     
    My wishes for a change in our luck
    30 Jan, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Likewise!
    30 Jan, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (843) | Send Message
     
    Thotdoc, your comment reminded me of some intriguing (and entertaining) words written by 48 a few days back. Believe me, I've had similar thoughts. Perhaps we just need to break into Exide's safe and rescue that voodoo doll. :)

     

    Posted by 48: --- "It's almost like there's this jihad-omerta put out by some array of dark forces against Axion and the PbC... Like hidden somewhere in a safe in Exide's front office they still have their voodoo doll of Axion's CEO... and instead of sticking pins into it, they just put tape over his mouth and slowly pull out all his stuffing...which is made up of millions of little tiny dollar bills... And then they burn it while they make him watch."
    30 Jan, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    WOW Wayne, what the hell were you watching last night? It definitely put a smile on my face though.

     

    On another thought, is there some reason we are dated Feb 1st? Is something supposed to happen this month, so we are starting it early?
    30 Jan, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    OMG! It could be the mother of all madcap caper movies:
    An elite direct-action team made up of select Axionistas... (LT, obviously this means you) carries out a clandestine mission to rescue the TG voodoo doll from the Exide inner sanctum. Think of all the possibilities! A field so ripe for rich characterization, intriguing personal backstories, the dark fascinating tale of the Axion saga etc etc...and bonus! ---a chance to really stick it to eeevill Exide!
    30 Jan, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    This is a special day in Axionistaville. We're starting on the 300th installment of the Axion Concentrator series and have made a cumulative total of 72,304 comments to date. While I figured that interest would wane within a few weeks after Mayascribe's report on the 2011 stockholders meeting that got the ball rolling, the series has become one of the most amazing viral social media phenomena I've ever seen.

     

    I think we all owe a debt of gratitude to Mayascribe for getting the ball rolling; to APH for keeping the conversation civil and refreshing the Instablog on a regular basis; and to all of the commenters who take the time to share their knowledge, research, speculation and opinion in an environment that's amazingly collegial and free of the nonsense you see on other message boards.
    30 Jan, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, JP! I'm continually amazed and incredulous at the unique success that the APCs have enjoyed.

     

    A long time ago, I figured out that the APCs represented about 5% of all comments posted daily here on Seeking Alpha. Not sure if that holds true today, but it's still a dumbfounding, incredible fact

     

    I haven't PMed David Jackson in quite some time, but I just did, congratulating him about Seeking Alpha now exceeding 2,500,000 members, and to also thank him for enabling and allowing the APC series to continue seamlessly since 2011.

     

    Thanks again to our Axion Power Host! A great milestone achieved!
    30 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    I liked your post John, but it's unfortunate that so many intelligent individuals are down so much on paper (or real dollars b/c they sold out) b/c of the intellectual draw of the discourse here.

     

    However, it's even more unfortunate that TG has been utterly incapable of utilizing this resource for the benefit of Axion or it's shareholders.
    30 Jan, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Letting you kind folks know that David Jackson responded to the PM I sent him, with congratulations about the success of the APCs. He thinks it's, "Amazing."

     

    (For the newbies, David Jackson is the founding father of Seeking Alpha.)
    31 Jan, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "share their knowledge, research, speculation and opinion in an environment that's amazingly collegial and free of the nonsense you see on other message boards. "

     

    LOL!
    1 Feb, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Axionistas do get snappish with each other on very rare occasions, but nobody I know holds a grudge.
    1 Feb, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    We're like one of those European football clubs where the team hasn't done well for a few years, but the hooligans never lost their verve - except when hit with a pipe...
    2 Feb, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    Oh, I thought you were going to say the Cubs. Never win but the fans are adamant it's commin' soon. Or was that the Vikings?
    2 Feb, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    Remember when "old roads lead to Rome?"

     

    Today all roads lead to "the internet of things" ...

     

    Today's down the rabbit hole:

     

    LocalGrid Technologies and RTI Partner to Deliver Secure MicroGrid Solutions Using Advanced DDS Protocol

     

    MISSISSAUGA, Ontario and SUNNYVALE, California—Jan 27, 2014—LocalGrid Technologies, a leading Toronto-based developer of MicroGrid solutions and Real-Time Innovations (RTI), the real-time Internet of Things communications platform company, today announced a strategic partnership to deliver a new MicroGrid and Distributed Energy Solution. The solution combines LocalGrid's advanced micro-cell "smart grid" technology and RTI's leading implementation of the Object Management Group's (OMG) Data Distribution Service (DDS) standard.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aKwsiM

     

    As a long time CS guy, I can appreciate the buzziness of this PR.

     

    Las Vegas has nothing on CS related PR departments :-)

     

    Always the challenge to figure out what's important, and just how important. Easy to get sheared both as an investor and as a "resource allocator."

     

    As Mork might remind us ... "Nano Nano" :-)

     

    I can appreciate that deciding on a Microgrid solution today can be challenging ... so many folks want a piece of the potentially very large pie. So much responsibility for protecting the public (or your stakeholders,) and spending their money wisely ...
    30 Jan, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2389) | Send Message
     
    It's always something (and not just in Illinois):

     

    Metra's board faces decision on new executive director
    4 candidates, including rail agency's interim chief, are in running

     

    http://bit.ly/1aKx5bS

     

    "At stake is command of the nation's second-largest commuter rail agency, which moves300,000 passengers and 700 trains a day. A prominent position by rail industry standards, the job is also a hornet's nest of logistic, administrative and political challenges, experts say."

     

    "At the same time, given the situation that happened with (former CEO) Alex Clifford, they need someone who has a pretty good knowledge of the political environment that Metra operates in," he said.

     

    Whether Orseno or another new executive director can successfully maneuver around the political minefields is a question facing Metra's board.

     

    John Zediker, who represents DuPage County on Metra's board, said all four candidates in the running are "transit-oriented."

     

    "I don't know if having an MBA or an advanced degree is an end-all or be-all," Zediker said. "I do believe it's going to be important for whoever it is have a positive relationship with legislators."

     

    Jack Schaffer, who represents McHenry County, has expressed support for Orseno.

     

    "Unless Superman walks through the door in full uniform, I don't see how much better we can do than that," Schaffer said.
    30 Jan, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    ""At stake is command of the nation's second-largest commuter rail agency, which moves300,000 passengers and 700 trains a day. A prominent position by rail industry standards, the job is also a hornet's nest of logistic, administrative and political challenges, experts say.""

     

    In India that's about ten trains.

     

    http://bit.ly/1nAbUMH
    1 Feb, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    ARCA on the bid twice today, each time pushing the bid relatively above the best existing bid, $0.091, to very close to the ask.
    Currently bidding $0.0939, prior time $0.0929.
    Looks to me like they are trying to sway the market.
    First time in, they ducked out after 15 minuts (max - may have left before I noticed they were gone).
    "Be careful out there!" (Hill Street Blues).

     

    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: Now bidding $0.0944!
    30 Jan, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    ARCA goes to $0.096 on the bid at 13:33. Everyone else on the bid is holding firm - next best is ATDF at $0.0911x35K

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Light at the end of the PIPE? I think maybe yes. I'll have more to say in a day or two.
    30 Jan, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    APH,
    Why Feb. 1 ? To day is Jan 30 !
    30 Jan, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (430) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Close enough for government work, and it was after noon and it makes it easier for JP to track comments (with a very small error introduced).
    30 Jan, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    You 'll probably have #301 up and running by then, if we get a surprise by this weekend !! Thks
    30 Jan, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    It's working ... as to price, but check what's happening. As of 14:04

     

    Buy:Sell 1:7.30 (11.84% "buys").

     

    This seems well orchestrated.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    Could you be more specific? Who are they? To what end are they trying to "sway" the market and why do you say so?
    30 Jan, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: Nope.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (797) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    "Patrick: Nope."

     

    I absolutely loved your response!

     

    Perfect!

     

    RBrun367
    30 Jan, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    One thing that is a pure delight on these APC's is how each contributor has their own unique style of communication. And in that landscape, HTL has certainly staked himself out a nice piece of the high ground. ;)
    30 Jan, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1215) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I appreciate your perspective on this price movement. Thanks for sharing!
    30 Jan, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    D Lane: It's really odd because ARCA is soaking up most of the shares on the bid. With only a couple interjections, which for which I couldn't get the MM, ARCA has stayed in this time and appears to have sopped up 514,685 shares 13:19 - 14:21. Now this number *is* high because there were a few bidders that stepped ahead of ARCA before ARCA was on both sides again (14:10 they came on the ask @ $0.097) and bid $0.0968.

     

    But it still looks like a few hundred K was absorbed by ARCA, best *guess*.

     

    They are still best on both sides $0.0968/$0.097.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    ARCA leaves the bid side 14:35, BB now $0.0966x10K ETRF, then ATDF $0.0915x50K.

     

    ARCA got a sale or two from their offer, $0.097, still there.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Thinks back to normal after ARCA exits bid side.
    On the ask, ATDF, ARCA walking it down: currently ATDF $0.0944x10K (Surprise!) and ARCA $0.0945x10K.
    Sells continues to be dominant with, through 15:03, 1:9.80 (08.34% "buys")
    If normalcy is here, as price drops closer to $0.09, buys should come back a bit and improve the ratio a *wee* bit.

     

    HardToLove
    P.S. The fresh coffee I made several hours ago is now cold.
    30 Jan, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    Closing in on the end of another week. Maybe we'll get some ePower update that will move the needle?
    30 Jan, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Re. ePower, just reviewed their website and pulled the following paragraph (from the "System" tab). I realize it's not a priority - just thought I would bring attention to it for when time allows an update:

     

    "A significant issue faced by conventional hybrid technology is the performance, cost and availability of next generation advanced batteries. No advanced battery technology is employed in the epower engine system. Instead standard, readily available, lead acid batteries are utilized which is a significant benefit to the cost of the system over alternative hybrid technology."
    30 Jan, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Our testing this week has focused on confirming the weight hauling capacity of the tractor and we're very pleased with the way it's behaving at weights up to 53,000 pounds. If the roads are clear next week, we'll rent a 53 foot trailer that can handle heavier weights and run our first fuel economy tests on our normal 50-mile test circuit.

     

    We're working on the website in our spare time and hope to have something fresh within a week or two.
    30 Jan, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • User462699
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Thank you for the reply. Good to hear affirmation re. the performance and looking forward to your updates as always.
    30 Jan, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    user46, the comment about the "readily available lead acid batteries" was probably written before they found out that those batteries would fail. My guess is they would want to confirm the performance of Axion's batteries before updating the web-site. Maybe taking a free lesson from NS.
    30 Jan, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Jp, that would imply the below average cold weather is not effecting the batteries?
    30 Jan, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Axion missed another opportunity:
    http://yhoo.it/1fnMezj
    ;-);-);-)
    30 Jan, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Arge,
    Looking at the map, I guess no one from the Midwest is going to be buying a Tesla Model S anytime soon. We, not if they are planning on driving anywhere south with it.
    31 Jan, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't everybody in flyover country understand that the only worthwhile destinations are east or west?
    31 Jan, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    I actually posted the wrong link somehow, I wanted the one on the side bar about the adult-size Cozy Coupe:-(
    As far as the map goes, a person can at least drive in circles around Houston...must be for the hurricane evacuate route put in place for the Aggies.
    31 Jan, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    I find this post rather distressing.

     

    Not long ago John Peterson said that Axion had a market value at current prices of around $25 million - 1/4 the value of all the investment in the technology.

     

    According to the above chart, the actual market value is $100 million, and the share count is implied to be 4 times as great. I guess I should have checked before investing - so its my fault, but still.....
    30 Jan, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    James,

     

    I think you should be reading off of the left-hand axis, not the right-hand (which is only 100,000 anyway).
    30 Jan, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    How about that - my bad. I didn't think John lied so I looked at that chart three times before I wrote my comment. I still didn't see it.

     

    Sorry
    30 Jan, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    No worries, I've been there.
    30 Jan, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    We've all been there.
    1 Feb, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    Seems to me that everyone else is selling product. Hope we're next.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/kde...
    30 Jan, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    This is Wednesday's entry - the faster I stroke the further behind I am getting.

     

    01/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up at last!)..
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 521125, AvTrSz: 10022
    Min. Pr: 0.0907, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0914
    # Buys, Shares: 11 157230, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0924
    # Sells, Shares: 41 363895, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0909
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.31 (30.17% "buys"), DlyShts 189844 (36.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.17%

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.11%, 8.81%, 0.60%, -59.40% and 92.34% respectively. Price spread today was 10.25% vs. 1.43%, 13.00%, 4.73%, 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33% and 6.47% prior days.

     

    There were two trades of $0.10 x 1K that affected the spread, which would've topped at $0.0950 without them. Removing them, our high would move to $0.0950, the change would be 3.37% and the spread would be 4.74%.

     

    Only 8 out of 52 trades were >= 15K today. Since their pricing was not exceptional, other than being near the lows, and they had mixed buys and sells, and the largest was only 50K, there's nothing exceptional that warrants examining the effects of removing them.

     

    On the traditional TA front, the wide (only if we keep those two 1K trades at $0.10) spread on “reasonable” volume, ~521K, a higher low and high (only if the $0.10 trades are included), would all conspire to make us think there's a bullish action possible. But RSI remains flat and barely above oversold, full stochastic has both %K and %D in oversold with the average (%D) still dropping, momentum is down at ~0.86 (that's below neutral of 1), etc., I don't buy the bullish scenario suggested by the price action alone. Add in the MACD trending lower again, along with its histogram.

     

    The lower Bollinger continues to move lower and now the upper has begun to fall too. ADX, and related, is the only one trying to suggest any hint of bullishness, likely fooled by the $0.10 trades.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0783 vs. $0.0787, $0.0792, $0.0797, $0.0801, $0.0805, $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815 and $0.0823 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0731 vs. $0.0727, $0.0740, $0.0758, $0.0750, $0.0798, $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771 and $0.0778 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Keeping in mind the daily shorts' yo-yo movement ...

     

    Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
    01/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0991, x 80%: $0.0792
    01/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0984, x 80%: $0.0787
    01/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0978, x 80%: $0.0783

     

    Usual commentary, trading breakdown, ... in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jan, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Maybe NY is up next?

     

    http://bit.ly/1fn3gg9

     

    No doubt that stationary energy storage is coming over the next 10 years, but ...
    30 Jan, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    Looks like we Axionistas need to contribute to a campaign fund so we can buy ourselves a politician. $500,000 ought to do it. That's only about a hundred each. We just start our own 509 and buy the the dinner. That's the way it works here in the good ole U.S. of A. Anybody here know about setting one up? I will put the first $500 up.
    30 Jan, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    TG mentioned before that he and Vani spent some time in NYC to sell to stationary. Said that to Berkowitz that last time he was on a call.
    30 Jan, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    I remember that too. Long lead times involved I'm sure, but maybe that's one of the fish that's closer to landing in the boat...
    30 Jan, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I've been watching the number of AXPW followers. Late last year, we were discussing hitting 300, with comments about the Spartans (and survival/slaughter). Looks like today we crossed a 10% increase in followers since that time. Looks bullish to me! Is it too late to buy in the low .09's???
    30 Jan, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    I sure felt that way today raleigh731 (to buy in the low .09's???) watching the share price movement. I was even thinking some insiders knew something big was going to be announced. But it seems as long as we are dealing with the PIPE'rs they will hit their % by the end of the day.
    30 Jan, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Go ahead and buy at .10, the math is eazier.
    31 Jan, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    ARGE,

     

    Actually, you're right. If AXPW does explode one of these days, a penny won't make any difference at all! Good luck to you!
    31 Jan, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    Ballard Power to supply fuel cell modules for German buses, shares +14.8%
    Ballard Power (BLDP) +14.8% AH on news of an equipment supply agreement with Solaris Bus and Coach for delivery of two zero emission fuel cell power modules to be used in buses planned for deployment in Hamburg, Germany.Delivery of BLDP's next-generation FCvelocity-HD7 power modules to Solaris is planned for later this year.
    31 Jan, 05:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Today's exam is a test of correlation skills. Your task is to determine the approximate times (no cheating by looking at prior comments) when folks at ARCA enter the bid side, (and stayed, and no other MM was bidding against them (no, it is not a trick question) and when they left.
    Keep in mind that ARCA folks were also, off and on early and then steady later, on the ask and had competition for the top spot on the offers.
    Hint: The normal results of bids with no competition and offers with moderate competition may not always apply in this market.
    Good fortune to those who participate.
    09:53-10:08: 126600 shrs, 11.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0912, 000.0% buys
    10:08-11:05: 114519 shrs, 10.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0910, 000.0% buys
    11:13-12:37: 055789 shrs, 05.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 036.0% buys
    12:38-13:08: 074800 shrs, 06.77% of vol, VWAP $0.0936, 030.7% buys
    13:09-13:31: 028900 shrs, 02.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 017.3% buys
    13:33-13:51: 152000 shrs, 13.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 009.9% buys
    13:57-14:44: 502731 shrs, 45.52% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 005.0% buys
    15:21-15:32: 003993 shrs, 00.36% of vol, VWAP $0.0944, 100.0% buys
    15:53-15:58: 041700 shrs, 03.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0919, 034.1% buys
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Results will be announced in the blog, up sometime later (this year?).
    31 Jan, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mac325
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    Newly posted Axion Letter to shareholders:

     

    http://bit.ly/MEHxHe
    31 Jan, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    That is somewhere around a 23% ROI. Nice!
    I can imagine a data center planner thinking a back up system generating a $28K monthly cash flow would have to be worth a look.
    31 Jan, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    I guess I was on to something in my previous post... "watching the share price movement. I was even thinking some insiders knew something big was going to be announced."
    I posted that yesterday, today was even better. What a nice surprise the second day back after my surgery. So here we goooo Axionistas!!!
    Will the next release of shares to the PIPErs be next week, or should we just buy, buy, buy,?
    31 Jan, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    Masi, I hope your procedure went well! Wishing relief from your pain.

     

    http://bit.ly/10lT3Nm
    31 Jan, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Masi> As I explained in a focus article I published today, I think the PIPErs will get their last block of shares by Monday of next week. Then they'll be fully repaid and out of our hair forever, except for several million shares that they have in inventory and will undoubtedly want to sell.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cEvUcO
    31 Jan, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Hot off the presses!

     

    Axion Power letter to shareholders.

     

    http://yhoo.it/1eDaYjd
    31 Jan, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    Nice info., can anyone clarify the total project cost? I'm not so good at the 'old math'.
    31 Jan, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Mac & Labtech: Great to see something that informs us of the heretofore opaque numbers associated with some efforts of the company.

     

    It sure looks attractive! I wonder if the incremental cost of providing enough storage to "time shift" wold still be attractive? I know that's not the strength of the PbC, but if the $s are right, anything is possible.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    It's an interesting argument to me. If you only have a certain amount of capital to spend, this argues that you are better off by putting in a smaller PV bank and spend the rest of the money on batteries. You'll generate less energy but you will make more money on the energy you generate by selling it back to the grid through frequency response participation. In other words, generating as much green energy as you can is nice, but it's not as cost effective as peak selling with batteries.
    31 Jan, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    10:06 ARCA enters on the offer at $0.096x10K besting the existing offers of $0.0989x18Kx25Kx10K ATDF NITE BTIG.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I'm guessing they liked that letter to the shareholders.
    31 Jan, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Masi: Since ARCA came in with an offer to sell 2.9% lower than best prior offer at that moment, I'm guessing they liked the opportunity to sell at a price better than they might have been expecting. I don't think they cared about the letter.

     

    Alternately, if someone was playing both sides, that offer could be meant to cap the price and encourage skittish folks to sell into the bid, $0.095 at 10:59 when I peeked at it, and $0.096 a 11:07. By 11:03 ARCA had exited the offer (sell) side.

     

    But they came back by 11:18 with a $0.095 offer, 3.84% lower than the best offer, $0.0988, I observed at 11:10. Gone again at 11:51, back at 11:52 with $0.095 again, down 3.94% from best offer of $0.0989 when they left at 11:51.

     

    They did that sort of thing all day - every time (almost) undercutting the best offer.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Impressive IRR numbers. To be clear, in all the reading that I have done on storage installations, I cannot remember seeing one with any type of return on investment.

     

    To those at Axion reading board, thank you for the communication.
    31 Jan, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    Sounds pretty good. Now let's sell some batteries.
    Edit. That table is confusing. If the payback time is 4.4 years and they have a net profit of $2.7M at the end of the 4.4 years, then wasn't the payback time much shorter than 4.4 years? I wonder how the model compares if you substitute in cheaper batteries that don't score so high on freq reg but still can make some limited income that way. Also, how would the model change if the tax subsidy goes away some time in the future? It would be good to understand the assumptions better, but overall a compelling sales pitch.
    31 Jan, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I suspect the $2.7 million in profit is over a 20 year useful life with a cash on cash payback in four years, but without access to the model there's no way to know for sure.
    31 Jan, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Looks like the tax subsidy is about 1/2 the cost so around 8.8 years.
    31 Jan, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I think ht tax benefits include ~$450,000 in front loaded credits with the balance in the form of depreciation spread over the useful life of the system.
    31 Jan, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    ARGE; I was wondering of the tax bene included capital depreciation costs and/or if the capital cost can be written off in one year (ISTR something about accelerated depreciation being considered to help businesses).

     

    Anyway, the subsidy might be smaller than it seems if some of that tax bene is normal tax process,

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    OOPS! Should have read yours before I posted my wonder above.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    Aren't those tax credits really high? I assume that NJ has a different (special) program that improves the ROI.

     

    If they are really pushing this then they should have a calculator on the website that you answer a few questions about size, state, purpose, that would give a preliminary range and would create a sales lead for AXPW or someone else.
    31 Jan, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    The Federal Income Tax credit for solar is 30% and if you include storage in the package, the credit applies to the storage as well.
    31 Jan, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Is there a balance that needs to be kept?
    I mean could I take a solar powered cell from a walkway light and hook it up to a full size power cube?
    If there is could I use wind instead of solar?
    1 Feb, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1417) | Send Message
     
    The letter is positive considering all of the renewable sources that need greater consistency and that could include regulation. Am I being too positive?
    31 Jan, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (971) | Send Message
     
    PJM issued this news release today.
    PJM GRID MEETS MONTH-LONG CHALLENGES OF COLD JANUARY
    Reliability maintained despite extreme weather conditions

     

    (Valley Forge, Pa. – Jan. 31, 2014) – PJM Interconnection, the electricity grid operator for more than 61 million people in 13 states and the District of Columbia, experienced one of its biggest weather challenges during the month of January.

     

    In its nearly 87-year history, this January’s prolonged cold was record-breaking. Eight of the 10 highest winter demands for electricity ever recorded in the PJM region occurred last month as the extraordinary arctic cold gripped a large part of the U.S. and all of PJM for extended periods.

     

    PJM’s new all-time winter peak of 141,312 megawatts was recorded the evening of Jan. 7. Temperatures broke a record for cold that day in several locations in the PJM region.

     

    PJM employed a number of emergency procedures at various times during the month, including calling on demand response resources – businesses and industries that are paid for cutting back their use of electricity. They currently are not required to act in the winter months, but many demand resources did so.
    With electricity supplies tight, PJM also issued appeals to the public for conservation on several occasions to help reduce high electricity demand.

     

    “PJM again thanks consumers for responding to our requests to conserve electricity,” said PJM President and CEO Terry Boston. “January was a challenging month, and the public response to our calls to conserve helped us manage the impact of the extremely cold weather across the entire PJM footprint.

     

    Among the challenges for PJM and its members in maintaining grid reliability during the month were unplanned generator shutdowns from the cold and the stress of extended run times, natural gas curtailments and fuel-oil delivery problems. All conventional forms of generation, including gas, coal and nuclear plants, were challenged by the extreme conditions. Because the frigid weather also affected neighboring grid areas, the availability of imported power to help meet demand and increase reserves was frequently limited.

     

    These challenges came against the backdrop of extraordinary winter demand conditions in which usage for much of January was significantly higher than normal levels for the month – with many days 15,000 to 20,000 megawatts above normal. The additional demand is about as much power as would be used by the greater Washington and Baltimore subregion.

     

    Because consumers used so much more electricity during the cold temperatures, their bills are likely to be higher than normal. Cold weather also pushed up wholesale power prices; however, the overall impact to consumers from higher wholesale prices should have little immediate effect on most residential bills.
    1 Feb, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, mag.... PR rings true from my perspective in central Maryland. Switched over from fuel oil heating to supposed Energy Star rated air heat pump system in Fall. Power consumption jumped 650 kWh in January over December level and exceeded any prior level of power use (Winter or Summer) by ~250 kWh. Had not been aware PJM had called for energy conservation, but would not have lowered the thermostat setting below the 67 degrees we were using if I had been.

     

    Should we be thankful for all the anthropogenic global warming? Imagine what the situation would have been like without it.
    1 Feb, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Yep, confirmed, this PECO/PJM's electric bill was an all time high by far last month, and even though I have taken measures to divide up heat in my home, to shut pocket doors, close off registers upstairs, shut bedroom doors, turn down the thermostat to 60 degrees for most of my home during nights (I have two heat pumps and furnaces), I'm betting next month's bill will be even higher.
    Supposedly, a major, major winter storm, the storm of this winter, is now just a week or so away. Ice storm coming this Monday... Oh my....

     

    BTW: I live about 8 minutes from Valley Forge.
    2 Feb, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Dear Boreas and Khione (Greek gods of wind and snow)

     

    Will you quit with the winter storms already? ePower's tractor is running beautifully but we haven't been able to do our fuel economy testing at weight because your winter storms keep making a new mess of the roads. We were hoping to finish with the 55,000 pound tests next week and move up to heavier weights. Now you tell me you've ordered up another storm that will give us a new mess to deal with. I know you like to keep life interesting for folks in the Northeast, but we have work to do and you're messing with our schedule.
    2 Feb, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (753) | Send Message
     
    May get the Day-cab on the road before testing is complete on the sleeper. Bet you didn't see that coming. ;)
    2 Feb, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I don't think anybody saw this winter coming. Our testing may not be going as quickly as we'd hoped but we're not wasting time. On days when the crew can't test the sleeper cab they're working on the day cab and making respectable progress. Since we're using the exact same drivetrain and electronics in both tractors, we're highly confident that the day cab will perform every bit as well as the sleeper. The only real challenge is finding enough space for all the required stuff on a smaller and lighter chassis.
    2 Feb, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    Roads were clean this weekend. I bet if you were hunter gatherers you'd be out!
    2 Feb, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    Maya and others,

     

    Make sure in economizing on heating that you don't make matters worse by thereby permitting pipes to freeze!
    2 Feb, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Be careful with the up and down on the heat pumps. I've got a gas furnace for my downstairs and a heat-pump upstairs. I talked to my furnace maintenance guy about the heat pump (since I had never had one before) and he said I was better off not to vary the temperature of upstairs with the heat pump too much. He said going up and down all the time over works the system and you will lose years of service on it. I don't know if he was right, but that's what he said.
    2 Feb, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    A good article on heat pumps from Mr. Konrad. I remember when air source heat pumps were a big bust here in the NE. Almost as big a bust as that football game which I gladly didn't watch.

     

    http://onforb.es/1lvUyC6
    2 Feb, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9598) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Lab & Rugged. I have American Home Shield Insurance. If anything breaks, from garbage disposal to one of my furnaces' blowers, all it costs me is $60 and the hassle to get it repaired.

     

    Already about a half foot down today, with another storm right on Maximus' heels. Power kicking on and off this morning.
    3 Feb, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    RE: Axion/Tom Granville Letter,

     

    As I read it, I was hearing Mr. Granville's optimistic voice as from CC's of prior years. Certainly 'one sparrow does not spring make' but I believe this letter is a harbinger of better days for this company and many long-suffering shareholders.
    31 Jan, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1476) | Send Message
     
    REALLY appreciate their publishing the data, especially when it looks like sales materials.

     

    "When our PowerCube, replete with PbC® batteries, is the storage source for the combined system, our model provides the opportunity to markedly improve that payback time."

     

    2014 - Year of the PowerCube
    31 Jan, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (660) | Send Message
     
    thotdoc, I read this as very positive. It's communication ! That all by itself is good stuff. Hell's Bells, even a letter about his possibly wearing bunny rabbit slippers would be good. :>)

     

    I take this is a great step.
    31 Jan, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    Bunny rabbit slippers, now that'll put a spring in your step!
    31 Jan, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    Got my wished for letter to shareholders from TG. The payback period data looks attractive. Hope perspective purchasers do likewise, and in short order.
    31 Jan, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    I DON'T want to see Mr. Granville in the bunny suit from "A Christmas Story"....
    31 Jan, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4429) | Send Message
     
    I wonder ... does this support my long standing idea that mixed battery types, with a Axion PbC first inline, are the optimum configuration for renewable installations?
    31 Jan, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    DRich... "I wonder ... does this support my long standing idea that mixed battery types, with a Axion PbC first inline, are the optimum configuration for renewable installations?"

     

    IMO your are correct. I think this will be the most workable solution with the highest payback.
    31 Jan, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    The "frequency" part is really where the PbC shines. Let other heavy duty batteries do the long term storage.
    31 Jan, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Is there any way to reconfigure the PbC (maybe with new patents) to turn it into a long term storage device? Since it does handle countless cycles it could help to be the one stop shop of your energy storage needs.
    31 Jan, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    thinner and extra lead plats? Johnson Controls' lighter LA battery reference. An Ultra Coconut Nano Tube Capacitor casing/lining?
    31 Jan, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    Others may get to it before I do but that table should prove to be a gold mine for us since it may enable us to reasonably dis-aggregate the storage component from the solar part and give a rough estimate of the economics of a storage only system dedicated to frequency management. It would seem that such a system could have a sub 4 year payback which as TG notes, could appeal to financial investors.

     

    Lots of caveats but very good news in my opinion. I'm also thankful that the company shared some info.
    31 Jan, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I think the numbers look pretty straightforward. 500 kW of PV will cost $3,000 per kW installed. For a 200 kW system the solar should cost $600,000 which leaves $900,000 for the 400 kW/kWh storage system.
    31 Jan, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    >John Petersen,
    So you read the project cost cell as $1.5 million?
    31 Jan, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    When a spreadsheet has initial numbers in parentheses the value is a cash outflow while the subsequent numbers without parentheses represent cash inflows. While there's an extra zero between the commas on the cost line, $15 million would be an obvious error.
    31 Jan, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    >John Petersen,

     

    Oh!
    31 Jan, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Yes the economics are now published and ball park expectations set for those considering PbC energy storage. Finally we shareholders are in on the data, and it looks compelling just as I expected given my very limited understanding of what PbC's can do. I think the future is a much more distributed energy generation for grid. Germany is already there and serves as a working model.
    Power plants will still exist and run the grid but there will a multitude of mini storage units situated on public and private user points that do FM and likely contribute bits of power to the grid through clean renewables. It makes so much sense in terms of economics (using sun/wind), carbon emissions, conserving fossil fuels, and reducing particulate pollution that I think distributed energy generation being far more commonplace is inevitable. If plug in EV's or hybrids become the norm then the additional power for them will have to come from the grid somehow. Solution? More storage and more grid-connected renewables contribution points.
    Here's an interesting question people will likely ponder in the future. How many solar panels and PbC batteries do I need at home to store enough energy on a sunny day so that when I get home from work I can recharge my HEV for the next day's driving? You could power your HEV all by home grown energy that would never show up on the monthly electric bill. Very cool. Or for lighter drivers maybe even an FEV.
    31 Jan, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: Just think if China remains serious about reducing their pollution and India continues to do what they've been doing - grid upgrade deferral - and decides to use micro-grids w/storage.

     

    Life would get rapidly sweet for us, no? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    HTL> RE: India/China
    For all I know your moniker of "Hard to Love" may be true, but it sure is easy to love how you think!
    31 Jan, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    What I wonder is how much of yesterdays ARCA action, and maybe some others, was from "leaked" information.

     

    Hm ...

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Call me a bit tepid on this data. With most project evaluations I deal with a 3 year maximum return on investment period is how we measure a project's value. Does this change within the energy industry? How does a warranty period of only 2-3 years affect this?
    31 Jan, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I'd expect the warranty period on a stationary installation to be a good deal longer than I'm planning on for ePower because the battery use patterns are very different. ePower's application is pretty savage when you set it up side by side with FR and demand response.
    31 Jan, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John
    31 Jan, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John,
    We also will want to remember that Axion's PowerCube has been up and running in New Castle now for several years, doing just what this system is set-up to do. So I would assume by now that they have a very good idea how the battery holds up in such a system and what kind of warranty length would be appropriate. I would assume that they had to share that information with BySolar to get the contract for the current installation.
    31 Jan, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    Articula,
    "Call me a bit tepid on this data. With most project evaluations I deal with a 3 year maximum return on investment period is how we measure a project's value."

     

    Your statement seems reasonable, but if you compare it to PV alone, I would think 4.4 years looks a "lot" better than an IRR of 14 years. An IRR of 4.4 years might stop some from putting up the system in the first place, but probably not the ones who were going to put up the system without batteries and wait 14 years for a return on their investment.
    The big question will be how this model can be implemented for an island nation installation, where how much total energy you generate is also important. I'm still wondering if we are going to see a model come out, as DRich keeps suggesting, where we see a PowerCube as the buffering/storage system for frequency regulation and DCA, and another battery system, for shunting energy from the PowerCube, for peak transfer energy supply.
    Guess I'll have to wait for the next PR.
    31 Jan, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    LabTech...IMO, that is the way things will work out.

     

    The fun would be to partner with GE, let them do the heavy storage and AXPW do the cube for the load leveling and frequency.....GE works with Capstone, GE gets the big turbines and CPST gets the small ones.
    If I were TG, this is the approach I would use. (it would not have to be just GE either, partner with all of them including the Solar guys)
    31 Jan, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    " The fun would be to partner with GE, let them do the heavy storage and AXPW do the cube for the load leveling and frequency."
    It would also help them get their foot in the door on a lot of projects that they might not be looked at for otherwise. The problem with it, is that GE and the rest of the "long/deep" storage battery systems just want you to buy their batteries and not look at what their batteries can't do well (which is the same for the PbC, but just in reverse). At the end of the day, it is still going to take Axion having relationships with integrators like BySolar, who can design a system that takes advantage of both battery types, and can sell it as a complete system to a buyer.
    That's another reason I'm still hopefully for sales from Multi-Link.
    31 Jan, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4600) | Send Message
     
    GE isn't blind....if they see the payback go from 14 years to 4 years, they become a player fast. So is many other OEM's. AXPW can have a place in this if they don't get too greedy and learn to play ball.
    I think this last financing changed their thinking, as they are now more willing, it appears to me anyway.
    31 Jan, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    @LT... it seems you are "warming" to the possibilities, no?
    31 Jan, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Articula, how tepid would you be if the money (or a good chunk of it) was going to be (or had to be) spent anyway? i.e., replacing the batteries in a back up system, or an Ikea ad campain for solar?
    31 Jan, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I just published a detailed analysis of where Axion stands with the PIPE financiers titled "Axon Power, Out of the PIPE and into the Light." Unfortunately the editors decided to publish it as a premium article under the "Small-Cap Insights" program which limits the content to SA Pro subscribers for 24 hours before releasing it to the general public.

     

    I've sent the editors a request to make it a normal focus article that will be available immediately, but really don't know what they'll do.

     

    The quick and dirty is that the PIPErs did accelerated conversions of about a million in PIPE debt during September and October and given the way the pricing formulas work they have absolutely no incentive to keep pounding stock into the market without regard to price.

     

    In other words I've called the bottom.
    31 Jan, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (366) | Send Message
     
    Based on my back -of-the-napkin calculations I've been feeling the same, John. I have a few friends waffling on buying some shares and I told them this week that the days of buying shares for a dime are coming to a close.
    31 Jan, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    I had a sense that the outstanding share numbers were higher than they should have been in the last 10-Q so I put together an Excel Workbook that did a pro-forma analysis to tie together installment dates, installment amounts and HTL's VWAP data. When I started comparing the pro-forma numbers with the reported numbers, it became clear that at least a million of debt was converted early. It's up to the editors to decide how they want to publish the article, but my workbook is available here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1beesLj
    31 Jan, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    May not be such a bad thing for it to be a Pro Article. Maybe some subscribers only read Pro articles and would not be aware of it were it not in the Pro section. No use preaching to the choir, although truth be told, I was a hell-raiser when I was a choirboy.
    31 Jan, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Looks like it is available to all.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1781) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Well, nothing like a little positive PR to clear over a million shares out of the PIPE system.
    By the way, SA let you article go to the masses instead of keeping it as a PA.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jan, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Excellent! It would have paid better if I'd let them keep it as a Small-Cap Insights piece because that selection is worth the equivalent of 15,000 page views, but I hate having old articles embargoed from regular readers after 20 days.
    31 Jan, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I kinda like it that they sent it to PRO subscribers first. They seem to react quickly on bullish publication, and could be a reason (along with the letter from TG), for the strong move up today!
    31 Jan, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh: OTOH, SA was originally intended to help all find alpha by offering a level playing field, within their domain at least, with an egalitarion (wiktionary: Characterized by social equality and equal rights for all people). Now, like the rest of the financial industry, they have a "special" group to which they will give advantage over us peons.

     

    As SA becomes more successful and less astute about the original mission, I become less enamored of them.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    I hadn't thought about it that way, but I think you are correct. There have been several stocks in their "investing ideas" that are PRO articles where they speak of the 40% gain since publication in SA PRO.
    1 Feb, 11:55 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering whether grid frequency regulation could be a diminishing income opportunity and, hence, eventually a diminishing argument in favor of Axion's PC sales...

     

    There must (ISTM) come some point where there is nothing more to be gained on a grid from frequency regulation beyond some point of sufficiency.

     

    Engineers among us, please assess!
    31 Jan, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi RDC,
    All markets eventually become saturated. In this case it looks like it would take a long time before it is and the more renewables added to the system the more needed from what I understand.
    31 Jan, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    You really need someone who understands how utility charges are priced, not an engineer. However, this article shows that renewable integration = lower energy prices (which is good for the economy as a whole). http://bit.ly/1eE168G

     

    In the United States, intermittent renewables (wind and solar) represent 4% and 0.25% of electrical generation, which means there is a lot of room for growth.

     

    The electric grid in the US is currently divided into two segments, baseload generation plants (mostly coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric) which operate at a continuous and constant level, and peaking generation plants (mostly gas turbines).

     

    Frequency regulation (matching supply and demand) today is related almost entirely to fluctuations in demand. These demand fluctuations are currently met mostly by controlling the "throttle" on the gas turbines. These peaking facilities are very large (hundreds of MW or GW scale) and very expensive to build and operate.

     

    http://bit.ly/1eE168H
    http://bit.ly/1eE140A

     

    They only operate a few hours a day or even a few days a year. Because these plants are costly but absolutely essential to proper functioning of the grid they command extremely high generation charges.

     

    Going forward, we (relatively cheap battery banks that do the job) can both outcompete these facilities for normal demand fluctuation as well as meet the ever increasing need for frequency regulation as a result of variable supply from wind and solar.
    31 Jan, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    Great comments Patrick-

     

    I know of a deal where some peaker plants were going to be sold and the deal was just cancelled. Reading the tea leaves (and the FERC public papers) it was due to the fact that one of the peaker plants was gaming the system and its availability to get extra income. Its very interesting when you pull the curtain back.
    31 Jan, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    A thought exercise: Baseload generation represents 35-40% of total power. US electric generation is on the order of 1000 GW http://1.usa.gov/1efpzGC
    and of that 600 GW is potentially "intermittent" (not baseload). That's 1.3 trillion dollars if we assume 400 KW of instantaneous PbC backup sells for $900,000. Not unreasonable when you consider there are hundreds of multibillion dollar gas plants around the country. Probably a long way off, but IMHO natural gas would be more prudently used as a feedstock and processed with solar energy to produce either hydrogen for fuel cells or some other portable fuel for mobile engines.

     

    I suppose that means higher natural gas prices are a positive for Axion.
    1 Feb, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    Following along that thought I guess the next thing to research would be how much spare lead is available?
    Coconuts shouldn't be too much of a supply constraint.
    1 Feb, 06:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    AiB: didn't we see some articles posted in the past about coconut tree plantations having issues? Something about "old growth" and reducing acreage?

     

    I can't recall the details.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Patrick: Re those peakers and NG ...

     

    IIUC, there's a bunch of inefficiency introduced when they (gas turbines) have to spin up and down - steady-state is optimal. Unfortunately, demand is not steady-state and so there's constant imbalance being introduced. I think that makes your thought that higher NG price could be good for Axion quite reasonable.

     

    When a request for peaking comes in, storage satisfies until the gas turbine, or whatever, comes up to speed. Then the peaker stays running at optimal through the demand cycle and until the storage is fully charged again.

     

    If they've enough storage, may even allow the peaker to skip responding for a cycle or two. Put solar or wind or ... in the mix to charge batteries on sunny/windy days when the peaker may not be needed often, or at all. Might exceed the bounds of ROI though.

     

    Should save the operator $ and some minor wear and tear on the turbine.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    You are very correct but the plants are now being grown in huge quantities in new parts of the globe eg parts of Brazil that used to be used for grazing are now being dedicated to mango, papaya and coconuts.
    The thing that worries me is the "longevity" of the PbC. If it has too long a life the need for replacements are obviousy greatly diminished. How long is a PbC likely to last?
    1 Feb, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1iYywGn
    "New highly selective and efficient catalyst for reduction of CO2 to CO"

     

    One of several efforts to "salvage" CO2 by conversion to CO which could be used as feedstock in production of liquid fuel.
    1 Feb, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    How Long Does It Take for a Coconut Tree to Get Coconuts?

     

    "Coconut palms (Cocos nucifera) grow best within U.S. Department of Agriculture plant hardiness zones 10 and 11 where they are cultivated as ornamental trees and for their edible fruit. Given the proper care and growing conditions, coconut palms produce their first fruit in six to ten years, but take 15 to 20 years to reach peak production."
    http://bit.ly/1ksawt6
    1 Feb, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    AiB; How long will they last? We don't know, of course. But *if* they are likely to last the lifetime required (in the future) of pollution control systems in automotive with (anticipated) number of lifetime cycles and DoD used in what we've seen from the like of BMW and Axion presentations, they should last much longer in stationary storage applications I would think.
    Even so, with the amount of grid infrastructure that needs to be upgraded or augmented, worldwide, the initial installation cycle should be *very* long, suggesting a *long* period of not having to worry that sales will drop off from longevity effects. More likely to fall as a result of the next worldwide recession, individual entities' inability to obtain funding, ...
    Another assumption, that seems implicit in your question, is stagnant growth in energy consumption, and therefore need to upgrade. With demographics in the developed world doing what they are doing, this might be a valid concern, until you factor in what JP has mentioned so often - the developing countries. AFAIK they don't have the same demographics and they are in the stages where growth in energy consumption will be going on for a very long time.
    So I don't see a worry about reduced sales due to longevity for a very long time.
    If we move to the area of s/s, which really hasn't begun to ramp up yet, and Axion gets a decent share of that growth, we're still in very good shape.
    Last I would add don't forget new applications. Right now we know there's potential for such as RTG (Rubber-tired Gantries), elevators, ... any cyclic energy consumption application which has a counter-cycle to potentially return energy and needs a storage system with high DCA.
    Let me get really far-out here: "wearable" electronics are coming on the scene. Pretend for a moment that normal body movements provide the electricity needed to power devices and a part of that is storage for moments of inactivity. Lithium-something might be preferred due to density and weight considerations. But what if the lead electrode could be displaced with some other material (or an improved lead structure, like "aerated" lead with a very, very large surface area for the weight), reducing weight and keeping the DCA profile similar to the current PbC? Might Axion be a player in that sort of future? Maybe, because I assume that once they really are a commercial enterprise they'll have some kind of R & D budget just like other enterprises do.
    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2105) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    On my recent trip to Belize, I saw several recently planted coconut plantations of immature trees. They are relatively fast growing, and there is practically an infinite amount of fallow land in the tropics which can be cultivated with coconut palms, which thrive in even the rather infertile soil of sandy beaches.

     

    I cannot imagine coconuts ever becoming a supply constraint. They are a food staple the world over, and anywhere you go in the tropics you will encounter piles of discarded coconut husks where the top has been hacked off with a machete for the milk inside, and the rest thrown away.
    1 Feb, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    SM: " top has been hacked off with a machete for the milk inside, and the rest thrown away."

     

    In my "yute" for a couple years I lived in Hawaii and very rpidly learned to scale those trees to harvest coconuts for me and my friends. I was one of those that could "walk" up the tree.

     

    We all had machetes or bayonets and the procedure was as you described. but that we would also eat the coconut meat of drinking the milk.

     

    When you spend you non-school days pedaling to Wameia Bay and (body) surfing, you need mucho sustenance!

     

    On the way back we stop by one of the pineapple plantations and risk a $50 fine (big money back in the late-50s) and have fresh pineapple.

     

    That spoiled me from ever buying in the store, or canned, for many years. Nothing better than warm pineapple juice dripping down your face with the sweetest pineapple taste ever - it was obscene!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    It's one of the reasons coconut husk carbon is used for filtering water. It works well, it's inexpensive and it's available in many of the poorest places on the planet.
    1 Feb, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    coconut water is one of the best hydration drinks available and is turning into a superfood. also, coconut oil is even further down this path. there are lots of empty shells just waiting for a customer...
    1 Feb, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Tim: Sometimes with Axion I also feel like I'm now just "empty shells". ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    HTL:

     

    Man, i want to go there!! Think the PbC can power a time machine? ;<}
    2 Feb, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh: As a pre-teen it was great - mom and dad had to worry with the exorbitant $0.35/gal gasoline and similar very expensive foodstuff staples due to shipping.

     

    For context, about 6 years later working as a gas jockey (for the younger crowd not in NJ, we pumped your gas, checked your tires (tyres), cleaned your windscreen (for the Brits ;-)), checked under the hood (bonnet) and did minor mechanical work) in California around San Pedro (think Long Beach and LA harbor area) gas was normally around $0.199 and if we had a price war going on it was $0.159.

     

    *Groan* makes me think about Axion pps ATM. :-((

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    >HT . . I always like to qualify historic prices with equivalent value. I'm thinking at $.199 you are talking pre-1965 when the US dime was still 90% silver. According to these folks
    http://bit.ly/oKXJSK
    two dimes today is worth ~$2.77, not a gallon of gas in Los Angeles but in the neighborhood.
    2 Feb, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    In World War II, when British and Japanese soldiers were given coconut water intravenously because saline solution was in short supply.
    2 Feb, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Geo: Good thought. But if you consider that the HA cost vs. the few years later cost on the left coast, that was my relevant point. In the islnds '59-'62, so in ~ '68/9, a dime likely still held somewhat similar value? That suggests fuel in HA was roughly twice as expensive. I wish I knew it's price in 68/9.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (183) | Send Message
     
    Looking at Level 2 quotes… How exciting!!

     

    Folks are starting to pile on and elbow each other for shares as the "ask" keeps retreating upwards.

     

    I would love to see what would happen if a bid for a million-share block appeared…

     

    Edit: Last trade was at ELEVEN cents!
    31 Jan, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (696) | Send Message
     
    At the first whiff of positivity have jumped in for 20k......sadly at $0.101 but at least they are tucked away.

     

    A big discount on my average but I think news like this may well justify my returning to the buy side.
    31 Jan, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    Money where my mouth is dept.:
    bot 25Ksh@.105
    AON limit order in for 25Ksh@.0999
    This in my HSA so it could become a trading position vs. my other 125Ksh which is an investment position.
    Still spec and it is not clear to me that we are at the bottom but I am comfortable with the risk/reward diegetic.
    31 Jan, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1140) | Send Message
     
    @ John Petersen: Your latest Axion Power article made it into my
    news feed at Interactive Brokers... I think that portends good things to come!

     

    Here's to hoping my Hitler spoof marked the turning point for this stock!

     

    Never underestimate the power of satire.
    31 Jan, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    My important lesson for the day was that I should have run down my inability to mentally reconcile the share counts a couple months ago.
    31 Jan, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    OR & JP,

     

    Thanks OR, I have IB and got the article also.
    31 Jan, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    Nothing but problems since they updated the software at SA for these concentrators. New post flag not working correctlty and editing, well, uhhm.
    31 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (498) | Send Message
     
    I bought 60k this morning bumping the price to $.095. I think this was roughly 45 minutes after the e-mail arrived in my inbox. The market's slow motion reaction was interesting although granted the news wasn't as unambiguous as a significant sale would have been.

     

    Let's hope JP is right in his estimation that the PIPers are fading into the rear view mirror. I'm not sure if the stock price will start to go up if there isn't any news over the coming weeks, but the stock could be extremely volatile if there is (good) news, meaning today's delayed reaction is less likely to be repeated.

     

    31 Jan, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    If you look at the dynamic over the last nine months the market has blown off the NS Sustainability Report, the progress at ePower and the Bysolar battery sale as utterly inconsequential.

     

    I *think* it's purely a function of the supply and demand imbalance where even good news goes unrecognized because the PIPErs wanted to sell at their price no matter what and had an effectively unlimited supply of shares.

     

    I'm quite confident of my new analysis on share issuances and that tells me the day's of unlimited selling pressure are history, or at least almost history.
    31 Jan, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    The Bysolar sale was only $320k gross and hardly contributed any margin, so a market blowoff of the event does not surprise me. It wasn't much of an event, though I remember it sure stoked renewed optimism of Axionistas at the time.

     

    I think a couple of huge 2013 events that the market surprised me by yawning over was the automated carbon sheeting process and the news release about CA and NJ *requiring* that battery storage now be a part of their blessing off on renewables projects. I can only imagine how many solar and wind projecteers started to commit more serious funding to battery banks than they would have otherwise due to the requirement. Plus when it comes to things like clean & green, whatever CA does others will follow.

     

    But the market ignored that news release. I believe that the reason is that the "market" of investors even aware of AXPW is so tiny that it is dysfunctional. Not enough absolute dollars or liquidity to make it much of a market.

     

    Case in point is today. 2.6 million shares traded @ roughly $.10 a share. All that trading volume seems exciting to us, and there was even a price spike intraday to $.11 which makes an Axionista's brokerage account look extra green for a little while.

     

    Yet the entire day's volume represented less than $300,000 changing hands. That's barely a market. But it's an order of magnitude above typical AXPW market action of just couple years ago.

     

    Two years from now will millions of dollars per day of trading be the norm? If so, the share price will be a lot higher in my view.
    31 Jan, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Bylo-
    , contributor
    Comments (389) | Send Message
     
    Finally! The news drought ends! Scraping the bottom of the barrel with a fine toothed comb (a lot harder than it sounds!) I managed to score another 11,000 shares! Hoo-Ha!
    31 Jan, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    Love the comment at the end of your article JP. "Since doing a variable conversion price PIPE is a lot like peeing on an electric fence and once is more than enough for any rational management team, I don't expect a sequel to last May's financing."
    31 Jan, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    Hope I'm wrong on this one Patrick and JP, but I can see management going for another PIPE if needed (no sales) though certainly with wider eyes and hopefully for better terms (e.g. they pee into a plastic cup and then throw it on the E fence).

     

    Did fill my other 25Ksh @ .0999 @15:40:42 (tdameritrade).
    31 Jan, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    There will be another financing and it may go off at a discount to market, but I can pretty well guarantee that nobody in the executive suite will ever sign on for another variable conversion rate deal. I learned my lesson in the late-80s and the memory still burns bright.
    31 Jan, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    Two words: Strategic Partner.
    At least one of our billion-dollar customers could come up with 10M in bridge financing to finish hammering out the kinks.

     

    It's not dissimilar to making a down-payment on something you intend to buy down the road.
    31 Jan, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    John - the problem that sticks in my craw is that you have been through financings with Axion and I know how meticulous you are. Why didn't they know that a PIPE was a terrible idea?
    31 Jan, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    John> What other option does Axion have than a variable conversion rate deal? I'm missing something here.
    31 Jan, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    RA> It's called a loan.
    A loan that's based on the idea that, my money will be repaid once I start purchasing the product, so if I don't want my principal back, I'll go with Li-ion instead.
    31 Jan, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> I haven't been Axion's counsel since 2008 and I try very hard to avoid contact with management because I don't want to come into possession of information I shouldn't have. If I had been Axion's counsel I would have lobbied for almost anything but a variable conversion rate. Since I wasn't asked I didn't have an opportunity to contribute my two cents.

     

    RA> In 2009 and 2012 Axion did straight equity at a discount to market. With several months for the market to heal before the next fundraising, I think management's negotiating position will be pretty strong come summer, particularly if something good happens between now and then.

     

    PY> My first rule of micro-cap investing is that I can't afford to own stock in a company that borrows money instead of selling equity. Every big loss I've ever suffered was at the hands of a company that borrowed money too soon and ended up turning the reins over to creditors.
    31 Jan, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    PY> I think it naive to believe that anybody would lend to Axion in their cash strapped and revenue poor situation. They've never had a quarter that didn't burn cash.

     

    In fact, as much as I love the tech I personally would not lend Axion any money at even 20% interest now for the simple reason of where the heck is the money going to come from to repay principal? Equity is the way to invest in Axion. Despite the much weaker position in the pecking order to debt, unlike debt the upside is not capped at 20%, or capped at all. With stock you might get 20% on one good trading day, without having to wait a whole year for that much in interest.

     

    I posted more on this in the past, but only a fool would lend money to Axion. I suppose it's possible, but it's crazy to expect it.
    31 Jan, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Treehill
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    RA: I'm not sure that lending money to Axion makes so little sense. I'll suggest the following scenario.

     

    Lets say I lend them $10 million and because sales don't emerge, they can't repay me my money. They are then in default and can be pushed into receivership. As the only creditor I basically get whatever is owed to me in a sale of the assets, assuming the sale at least meets what I am owed. But if no one is interested in buying it, I would also have the option to take over the company as a means of recovering my investment. And even if another group was interested in bidding, as a creditor I wouldn't be excluded from bidding. For someone who wanted to own the technology, in such a scenario lending money to Axion might make more sense than investing in it.
    Personally I don't want to see Axion having any debt. If they need to raise more money, get it from investors. Given that we Axionistas have swallowed up tens of millions of shares over the last half year, we should be the obvious source for future funding.
    31 Jan, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1468) | Send Message
     
    Treehill> Yes it's possible somebody could lend Axion money as a back door way to try to take it over and the assets, particularly the IP. I was aware of this but didn't want to post about it as you never know who reads these posts and no need to give anybody any ideas.
    The ploy would be far from certain to work though as when the debt was coming due it would be possible to refinance and pay it off with a PIPE or strategic investor or even a rights offering.
    There's a ton of value in this company and sooner or later some big money will be attracted to it and try to jockey for position with others. That actually bodes well for us. There is a clock ticking of cash burn, but another positive clock ticking of the energy storage world waking up to the great potential of the PbC. I think 2014 is likely the year of coming out of deep sleep. It could be some Cubes perfoming well, Class 8 trucks getting incredible mileage, or an auto or locomotive partner verified, or something else that finally gets attention. Any one could be a strong catalyst for TG's "steep ramp in sales".
    1 Feb, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    "...Any one could be a strong catalyst for TG's "steep ramp in sales"."

     

    Harps start playing and the clouds open up allowing long forgotten rays of hope to stream from the heavens.

     

    A sale, my kingdom for a sale. Oh well, we got cube data and witness that claims to have seen Elvis and 4 PIPEr arses leaving the building. A good precursor to the mythical magical significant sale.
    1 Feb, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2511) | Send Message
     
    I was a high-rate commercial lender and I believe that the only loan you'd see is one structured to give the option to be repaid in equity. Basically, another discount convertible PIPE.

     

    No way does a rational lender do a straight loan to a cash flow negative company with a marketplace unproven product. The assets are only worth the positive cash flow they can produce for someone. A reasonable assumtion is that if they fail to do that for Axion, they will for anyone else, too. The default value would be less than $0, only moving up if someone makes a strong case that an old lead facility is worth more somehow.
    1 Feb, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • Articula
    , contributor
    Comments (245) | Send Message
     
    2.6M shares. Crazy day!
    31 Jan, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    With an ending 1.25:1 buy sell (vs. yesterday's 1:8.38) *and* my suspicion that yesterday's action was traders jumping on a news leak to trade, and VWAP up $0.0050 (+5.33%) above yesterday, let's see if we have a huge daily short percentage jump.

     

    If not, I suspect those that bought yesterday were either long-term investors or traders expecting better price before they dump out. Won't be any way to know which right now. My guess is that those that *normally* have access to leaks are not long-term investors.

     

    I'm expecting big short sales.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Do you know when the PIPErs get their next box of water balloons?
    31 Jan, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    "Leaks" is probably a bit of a misnomer. More like voyeurism. I suspect there are plenty of "agents" out there who are more than capable of hacking TG's Documents folder.
    31 Jan, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    Furthermore, i would guess these agents are not working inside the USA and may have state sanction from a country known to support wholesale industrial espionage (China), so what would do they care about the SEC? They will never be prosecuted for it.
    31 Jan, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    "My guess is that those that *normally* have access to leaks are not long-term investors."

     

    You realize you are talking about illegal trading activity...

     

    That would never happen...and if it did... surely the SEC would be all over those who took advantage of some "inside" information
    31 Jan, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: It wan't that long ago that CNBC was running a video piece on the SEC and in the background we could see SEC employees watching porn on computers - getting paid by us taxpayers and enjoying the "fruits" of taxpayer-provided equipment.

     

    If, however, the transgression resulted in billions of dollars of gain )or loss-avoidance) for someone, they'd be all over that because of the PR opportunity.

     

    I realize you probably were being facetious, but JIC ...

     

    BTW, (CPST) is another that has a "leaky" newsroom apparently, although it seems less so this last year or so.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    HTL. The SEC officials in that case were making sure the guys and gals on the various sites were not performing any kind of illegal cover up! :-I
    31 Jan, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Indelco: More likely making sure the performers weren't sc$@)&ing any of the big boys in the finance world.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Yeah, They could us that for influence and get a well deserved raise.
    1 Feb, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Patrick

     

    Strategic Partner. Amen. Yes. Leverage a relationship for a limited field for the financing we need today

     

    TG - if not please explain why we would not do so

     

    Stephan

     

    "Why didn't they know that a PIPE was a terrible idea? "

     

    Need to address that to the latest member to join our Board
    31 Jan, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to press TG on this point. WTF is the problem?
    31 Jan, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Axion just filed a registration statement for the balance of the PIPE shares.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Ly8PhI

     

    This registration statement disclosed that a total of 196.6 million shares were issued and outstanding on January 28th. My pro-forma worksheet shows that a total of 183.8 million would have been outstanding on January 28th without any early conversions. My actual worksheet show that a total of 178.3 million shares would have been issued on January 28th if there were no additional conversions after November 7th. In light of the new information included in the registration statement, I believe that substantially all of the PIPE debt has been paid and no additional shares will be issuable to the PIPE investors.
    31 Jan, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1035) | Send Message
     
    John, the document you linked to is a bit hard to read for me. Are you saying that there will be no more shares issued Monday or simply that this will be the last block?
    1 Feb, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    It will be the last big block. After doing some digging in the prospectus I'm putting together a top-down analysis that gets to the same result as yesterday's bottom-up analysis, but provides more granular data. It should be published later today or tomorrow morning.
    1 Feb, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (871) | Send Message
     
    If that is true, I don't see why the updated PIPE deal spelled out that the monthly payments due to the PIPERs for February was cut in half (which, at the time seemed to imply stretching out the payment period).

     

    "4. With respect to all lenders except Parsoon Special Situation, Ltd, the Installment Amount for Installments subsequent to the Installment for the period ending February 3, 2014 was reduced from $250,000 per lender to $125,000, except that at the Company's option, it may request that the Installment Amount be increased to $250,000. "
    1 Feb, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (359) | Send Message
     
    Closing price 0999. This is a good time for a NS announcement. Any numerologists out there?
    31 Jan, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (823) | Send Message
     
    John-

     

    To summarize your comment in my own words so that I am sure I understand:

     

    If there hadn't been any early conversions we should have only issued 178.3M shares as of Jan 28. However since we knew of some early conversions in Nov that you estimated that 183.8M shares had been issued. With news that 196.6M shares have been issued you believe that there had to be more early conversions.

     

    So you expect that there will not be $600k worth of more shares issued the next two month and then $250k issued in the two after that. Effectively all that would left is the final reconciliation for Feb?
    31 Jan, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    As near as I can tell the early conversions in September and October reduced the PIPE debt by $1 million. Today's filing tells me that there were another ~$700,000 of accelerated conversions after November 7th. That would have brought the balance down to ~$300,000 for the March installment. Since the pre-installment shares for March were issued yesterday, I don't think there will be any additional share issuances to the PIPErs.

     

    I've updated the Excel Workbook I created for today's article to include the new information from the registration statement, the February True-up and the estimated March pre-installment.

     

    http://bit.ly/1beesLj

     

    My spitball estimate for the fully diluted share count after conversion of the $1 million in subordinated debt bought by insiders, friends and family is now 205 million, but we won't have a hard number until the Form 10-K is filed.
    31 Jan, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    While those insiders will be getting stock, I would expect that it should not get sold into the market at these prices. Would that be a reasonable assumption?

     

    And if it does, will there be Form 4s filed?
    31 Jan, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Also, WRT to the warrants that the PIPErs now hold, any thoughts as to how they might play those? Just sit on them until near expiration, when hopefully (for them) the spread will be greatest?
    31 Jan, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    48, You're worried about how you might best wax a Mercedes after climbing out of a ditch half starved to death.

     

    PS You're still in the ditch.
    31 Jan, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    No comment on my question about potential insiders sales of PIPE shares?

     

    Not that we haven't had flags already, but if we see insiders selling shares at anything close to these prices, then they might as well raise the white flag.
    31 Jan, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    iinde, tell me about it... "flies buzzing around my eyes, blood on my saddle..."

     

    I was just trying to look forward to happier days
    31 Jan, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3332) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, agree with you that it's an important question/issue, I just don't have much insight to add. Unless it's that those folks really need their cash back out real quick, I too would be shocked/dismayed if they sold down here. We all have issues with some of the choices made in execution, but for all of it, Axion is slowly, if meanderingly, still putting one foot in front of the other....still adding value brick by agonizing brick... Insiders should know all there is to know about that better than anyone, So I would certainly think/hope that the friends and family shares, having been gotten this cheaply, will be held very long term...
    1 Feb, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    Stefan> I don't think the shares issued to holders of the $1 million in subordinated debt are even registered yet. I can't see any of those buyers selling shares they bought at $0.264 for anywhere near the current price. The big buyers of the subordinated debt were Jim Smith and Bob Averill. Neither has an ongoing Form 4 filing obligation. To the extent that shares are sold by persons who are directors, officers or affiliates on the date of sale, a Form 4 will have to be filed.
    1 Feb, 12:54 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the response. I think it would be a shame if we were to see any such sales.
    1 Feb, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    The holders of subordinated debt don't have conversion price adjustment provisions, pre-installment payment rights or true-up rights. I didn't answer the question the first time around because I can't imagine any insiders, family or friends selling for under a couple bucks. I can't for the life of me figure out why you think it would be a *shame* if they lost their nerve at this stage in the game and sold for a big loss. Hell, I'd be thinking about commitment proceedings if something like that happened.
    1 Feb, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    I think it would be a shame b/c either they are in dire straits (which I doubt) or they have no faith in the story and we are completely wrong.
    1 Feb, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29572) | Send Message
     
    You might as well say you think it would be a shame if Petersen sold. I understand that you're angry about the stock price but it really is distorting your view of other people, their motivations and their likely conduct.

     

    I envision a world where chickens can cross the road without having somebody question their motives and thought processes.
    1 Feb, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2558) | Send Message
     
    Petersen doesn't have an insider view. Selling at this point would be almost the reverse of not buying shares at this level.
    1 Feb, 01:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    "chickens can cross the road without having somebody question their motives and thought processes."

     

    Down south we know their motive: to prove to the possum that it could be done!

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Indelco: "... still in the ditch".

     

    Market is forward looking and 48 is leading! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    48, Me I was reaching forward with my hand out hoping you'd give me a bit of assistance. Had enough ditch diving. Makes DRich's position on the dumpster lip look like a resort. ;-P
    1 Feb, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    The release today has me feeling very bipolar. As of yesterday, I thought the next time Axion released news, it would be for sales of PbCs on a magnitude that none of us saw coming. Don't get me wrong, I loved seeing some communication to shareholders and this release lends credibility to our investment. But nevertheless, I think it is me stroking my ego that evokes optimism more than the letter itself. Nothing materially ($) changed between yesterday and today in my mind. We now know how the economics make sense, but when I chose to invest I had already assumed that the economics made sense or they wouldn't be marketing the PowerCube. Maybe that was a leap of faith that many here hadn't taken for various reasons; I know I can be somewhat naive at times. But I digress. I was hoping for sales, but this wasn't bad.

     

    JP's article did a lot more for me from an I-am-making-good-inves... point of view. We are coming out of this PIPE deal with a suffering share price, but having made strides as a company. (Selling our cube to Bysolar, keeping the lights on, you know what I mean). While the next funding is largely uncertain, I think business developments will have us in a better situation as a company to deal with it. Share price is ugly and unfortunately, that plays a big role in negotiations, if it isn't the centerpiece (my opinion, I've never participated in negotiations myself). Even strategic investors are likely to ask the same question we do, "where are the sales?" But I'm encouraged by the developments I do know about and I think Axion is still heading in the right direction. I just hope they step on the gas so we can get there in time. I think a bridge-financing sounds reasonable at this juncture (does it?), to get us to a point where we have a backlog of orders and a credible view of sales revenue.

     

    Ultimately, I'm saying that I like the communication (up) but I am disappointed that it wasn't sales (down).

     

    At any rate, I added 10k shares at $0.095 today. Thanks to anyone who made it through my ramblings in their entirety and anyone who even tried.
    31 Jan, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    i'm not looking for a path to profitability. I'm looking for a path to relevance, which is what propelled TSLA to the moon.
    31 Jan, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (983) | Send Message
     
    too many well-read pieces on energy storage, start-stop, and battery tech in general make no mention of Axion. This is a serious problem. We are not yet part of the lexicon, and we need some serious endorsement to get that ball rolling.
    31 Jan, 06:25 PM Reply