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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Lurking at .10... Trading blocs.

     

    As to the question re. Why the PIPErs got a stretched out deal, I wonder if the calculation involved a desire to avoid a quick spike in share price so that retail investors seeking an exit would have to wait. Avoiding a strong up and down sequence and the destabilizing after effects seems a logical choice. This delaying tactic would mesh with similar delays seen in bringing in the promised substantial sales.
    8 Feb 2014, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    My pet theory is that the four PIPE investors are not by nature equally aggressive and that Parsoon is the alpha dog. The evidence is pretty thin, but Parsoon had the smallest number of shares on January 28th and they didn't go along with the payment stretch. So I tend to think they want to finish up with Axion move on to the next deal.

     

    While the contracts give each of the PIPE investors the right to account for 15% of daily trading volume, the double count limits the group of four to 50% of daily volume because they can't sell more shares than buyers purchase. That means everybody has to settle for a little less than their 15% limit and if the alpha dog is too pushy the shortfall gets split three ways instead of four.

     

    I do think Axion wanted to extend the withdrawal period because that should take some of the volatility out of the market and avoid spikiness. I also think the less aggressive PIPE investors are hoping for a big score on their last two blocks of stock.

     

    The stock issuances in early February were based on trading prices in December and January. The final stock issuance in early March will be based on prices in January and February. So the bargain price from a miserable January is now locked in for the balance of the transaction. At current prices, the PIPE investors are getting $.11 for shares that cost them ~$0.073. For that class of investor a 50% bump is good performance. If the less aggressive PIPE investors back off a little more, a 100% bump becomes a reality at $0.146 and from there the gains get silly quickly.

     

    The next two months will be an education for me because my prior experiences with supply and demand imbalances were things I only recognized in hindsight instead of observing in real time.
    8 Feb 2014, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    take some of the volatility out of the market and avoid spikiness

     

    I think you are dreaming again....AXPW has never had to worry about "spikiness"....if so, they wouldn't be here. I bet u coffee TG would be elated and couldn't get the next capital raise out fast enough if the stock "spiked" to $1.00/share
    8 Feb 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion has not had to worry about spikiness for the last four years because there were always big holders who were willing to sell large blocks at distressed prices. As the PIPE investors get to the bottom of their inventories, there will be no big holders who are willing to sell at distressed prices. The market will be in the control of the people who have been accumulating for the last four years and expect way more than a dime for their troubles.

     

    I'd be every bit as elated if Axion could get the nest capital raise off at $1 because that would almost take the stock price to my breakeven point. Getting to $1 and holding it will be much easier with a smooth progression than a single spike.
    8 Feb 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    there will be no big holders who are willing to sell at distressed prices. The market will be in the control of the people who have been accumulating for the last four years

     

    and the next capital raise coming this year? How many shares will that be? and who will be in control of them? even the 4th qtr. is not far away
    8 Feb 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If they don't reduce the pace of their selling activity, the PIPE investors will be out of stock by the end of March. Unless you can offer a logical explanation where the sell-side supply will come from between the end of March and whenever the next financing occurs, there is only one way the stock price can go.

     

    So unless you believe Axion will rush to market immediately and create a new round of problems, explain where the stock is going to come from.
    8 Feb 2014, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I am in total agreement that reduced sell side pressure wil be a huge improvement. I also believe that until Axion announces significant orders to support the start of the PbC revenue stream there won't be much incentive for the buy side pressure to increase and the stock could just languish with low volume.

     

    I have my fingers crossed that the Perfect Storm is formulating. The reduction in sell side pressure along with the announcement of significant orders to increase the buy side pressure!

     

    I beleive it will take both to lift the stock price and if we are talking about $1.00 ps then definitely TG will have to come through with his "prediction" of significant orders.
    8 Feb 2014, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    Axion pps will have to make hay while the sun shines this Spring. The next raise likely won't happen before mid-Summer unless you see something different on the horizon. The stock can do a lot between now and the 4th Q (as the last 7 months as shown as well).
    9 Feb 2014, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    (note to self: 'like' works again . . .YEH!!!)
    9 Feb 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    When Axion stock is not at bargain basement prices, will there be buy demand without a sales announcement? At what point does the market no long feel Axion stock is not at bargain basement prices?

     

    I would like to believe that the slow trickle of news will continue or increase, Time will tell.
    9 Feb 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's impossible to say for sure that the market will rise, but we've had two prior instances where the sell-side pressure dropped off for a while before a new big holder decided to start selling.

     

    The first was in January 2011 when the selling pressure from the dueling trustees and the 2009 retail buyers abated and the price went from $.60 to $1.20 over the course of a month and a half before the big uglies started selling.

     

    The second was in January 2012 after Special Sits finished selling and the price went from $.29 to $.60 in less than a month before the 2012 offering was announced. In both cases there was no obvious reason for the price increase other than a decline in selling pressure.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lzfsj0

     

    I'm truly looking forward to a couple months when there are no big sellers pounding at the offer day after day.
    9 Feb 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Buenos dias!!

     

    Here I am and I am going until the end.

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    8 Feb 2014, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    like
    8 Feb 2014, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    My like button still isn't working!....and I'm wearing my touchpad out trying to "like"!! Buenos dias, Carlos and all!
    8 Feb 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, Mine still works but not correctly. If I hit the "like" button it doesn't show as a registered "like". But then when I refresh the screen, Ta Da, there it is! SA ebonics?

     

    I'm using Fire Fox for my web browser.
    8 Feb 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    wish someone would fix this . . . it's getting damn frustrating not having the ability to 'like' on these thread comments -- especially when they work fine on every other SA thread I am involved with.

     

    that is my whine for the weekend. Back to the transplant clinic on Monday for more qualifying and testing . . . so try not to load up on messages while i'm gone. my last catch-up was on the order of 200+ messages in the Axionista threads alone . . .
    8 Feb 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    Oh what a difference a week makes.
    If a trickle of good news makes this much difference, imagine what a train announcement will do.

     

    We should start getting some "From the Road" reports on ePower performance soon, and that can only help more. Nothing like some 3rd Party confirmations to turn "vendor embellishments" into "cold hard facts".

     

    Once paying customers confirm what we have all believed, it will be off to the races. Other customers will realize the PbC is the answer they have been dreaming of.
    8 Feb 2014, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • David Guo
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    No.1
    8 Feb 2014, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Welcome David!
    8 Feb 2014, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Hey, David !

     

    And welcome to good spirited bedlam.
    9 Feb 2014, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • David Guo
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! Posted before 7 AM, thought might be the first post. Long time lurker, first time got in AXPW above $1. Been a loyal reader of the post. Thank you JP, Maya, APH and everyone who contributed! Still have confidence in AXPW.
    9 Feb 2014, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Contents of November 15 " Rule 424(b)(3)" filing with SEC indicates the January 31 S-1 filing overstates face amount of senior convertible notes outstanding. That document reports accelerated conversion of senior notes prior September 30 caused issue of 625,000 shares. From the SEC filing (page 10),

     

    "Pursuant to the terms of the Senior Notes, the Company opted to pay the installment payments due prior to September 30, 2013 with shares of the Company’s common stock. As of September 30, the Company issued 28.8 million shares of common stock at a weighted average conversion price of $ 0.1224 for the first $ 3.1 million in principal and $470,000 of interest. In addition 625,000 shares were issued for accelerated conversions netted a release of $75 thousand."

     

    From page 17,

     

    "As of September 30, 2013, we have received one $500,000 funds release and an additional $75,000 due to accelerated note conversions by two investors.

     

    Subsequent to September 30, 2013, an additional $1,137,500 has been received through November 8, 2013."

     

    Unrelated to PIPE transactions, $48,270 in stock issued to independent directors was recorded as compensation expense in Q3. (see page 7).

     

    8 Feb 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Disclosures like those are the big reason I thought it necessary to go back through and put everything into a spreadsheet. I couldn't mentally reconcile the disclosure that they paid two $1 million installments and reduced principal by $3.1 million.

     

    Under the PIPE agreements, the first $1 million principal installment was due on July 8th (24 days after the resale registration statement went effective). The second was due on September 1st. The third installment wasn't due until October 1st. While Axion is required to issue "pre-installment conversion shares" 20 trading days before an installment date, the installment isn't considered paid for accounting purposes until the true up payment is made on the installment date. Since the conversion price fell from $.114 to $.104 during September, the October true up was on the order of 2 million shares.

     

    Transactions like this one are confusing as hell and I can't always tell who's on first from simply reading a disclosure document. The only way I know how to find out for sure is to go back to square one and build a spreadsheet based on the deal terms and the historical data.
    8 Feb 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    "the installment isn't considered paid for accounting purposes until the true up payment is made on the installment date"

     

    As far as I understand it's also not considered paid for interest accrual purposes. If that's true, it seems this interest accrual should be unlawful. You got your shares in hand, they are registered and therefore you are free to sell them and get your cash. Accruing interest after prepayment on the prepayment strikes me as indefensible.

     

    Prepayment is one of those "Huh?" terms for me in this deal, and makes it crystal clear that the agent we paid $720k to find us $10M was not working for us.
    8 Feb 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Interest accrual pattern very significant point re-building a spreadsheet to simulate share issue stream. Contributes to explanation of $470,000 interest paid through Sept. 30.

     

    8 Feb 2014, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's why my spreadsheet started with an amortization table that accrued all interest.
    8 Feb 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    Wow, getting rewarded with Interest when you have already sold shares before the "true-up" period is a royal shafting. Hopefully our new board member will have some wise advice/scolding to the others of what a Royal F-up their last finance deal turned out to be. I'm sure this isn't what TG thought he was getting but anyhow we keep drinking the lemonade from this PIPE deal and soon, it appears, they will be out of lemons.
    9 Feb 2014, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    A PIPE outlook scenario

     

    A PIPE repayment/conversion schedule was constructed reflecting acknowledged accelerated conversion of $75k prior to September 30 and an assumption that a further $137,500 was accelerated in October. Assumption of the latter acceleration was based on a statement ("Subsequent to September 30, 2013, an additional $1,137,500 has been received through November 8, 2013.") on page 7 of November 15 " Rule 424(b)(3)" filing with SEC.

     

    Construction further assumed that placement agent fees paid on release of funds from controlled account(s) were paid in shares valued at the same conversion price applicable to associated PIPE installments. (Placement agent could realize immediate profit on sale, incentivizing prompt sale and effective pump priming for trade- volume-share-constrained PIPEr transactions.)

     

    Conversion prices applied to principal installments/pre-insta... and interest were drawn from HTL's VWAPs series included in Petersen's spreadsheet.

     

    183,120 shares issued to non-employee directors between May 28, 2013 and January 14 were added to total share counts.

     

    As constructed, spreadsheet computes share issues in PIPE transactions total 73,787,045 through Jan.2 installment date with $1,787,500 of senior notes remaining to convert. Combined with
    pre-PIPE shares outstanding of 113,290,364 and shares issued to independent directors, PIPE share issues push the total to 187,260,529. Including March pre-installment shares due for issue on Jan. 29, PIPE-related share count climbs to 82,478,313
    and total shares outstanding to 195,951,797; notes remaining for conversion declines to $1,162,500.

     

    The estimated 195,951,797 share total derived taking March pre-installment issue into consideration differs from the 196,584,591 total reported in Axion's Jan. 28 S-1 filing by 632,794 shares (roughly equivalent to $50k - $65k).

     

    It appears that with or without accelerated note conversions post November 4, a cogent argument can be made that issue of PIPE shares will decline going forward. If the share VWAP holds at recent levels, all senior notes could be retired by May 1 with issue of fewer than 15 million shares. If so inclined, PIPErs appear positioned to choose between selling quickly on conversion or to wait for firmer prices, hold all shares converted in April and May as well as some of those obtained in March conversions and remain under the agreement's 4.99% cap on holdings of outstanding shares held.

     

    FWIW

     

    9 Feb 2014, 04:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Placement agents are prohibited from taking discounted stock in lieu of cash fees under FINRA and SEC rules. Moreover, making such a payment would (a) require the placement agent to be identified as a selling stockholder, and (b) bring the full ratchet adjustment provisions of the warrants into play. I think it's very unlikely.

     

    The notice date for the March 1st installment was January 28th. The related shares were not issuable until January 30th They should not have been reflected as outstanding in a registration statement dated January 28th.
    9 Feb 2014, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Common stock holdings of current non-employee board members increased 183,120 shares between May 28, 2013 (from first PIPE-related S-1) and January 14, 2014 (Jan.31 S-1).

     

    78,496 of the 183,120 increase in share holdings occurred after October 4, 2013.
    8 Feb 2014, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Remember that your ultimate goal is to account for all 83,294,227 shares issued between May 15, 2013 and January 28, 2014.
    8 Feb 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    JP> What percentage of ownership of Axion will the PIPERS have when the dust all settles? I'm wondering what it cost Axion in toto for $10M?
    8 Feb 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Bang,

     

    My response to your question is they will have about the same ownership as you since they apparently are selling all of their shares as soon as they can.
    8 Feb 2014, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    BW, I'm pretty sure most of the ownership will end up back in the hands of Axionistas. But share count grew over 50% and that didn't help pps (to say the least). Thus total cost looks like double digit millions lost in market cap and near a couple million in interest and placement fees. Also warrants down the road will add to the share count again (maybe) but that is more of high class problem at this point.
    9 Feb 2014, 02:30 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The share count started out at 113 million last may. In November I upped my estimate of the total number of shares that would be issued to the PIPE investors and subordinated debt holders to 100 million. That estimate still looks very close.
    9 Feb 2014, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JP.
    9 Feb 2014, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Apologies if this has already been posted.

     

    All Aboard! Next Stop, A Battery-Powered Future

     

    http://bit.ly/1k8vrnx
    8 Feb 2014, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    "Of course, locomotives are a very expensive capital investment for railroads, and as such, they are continuously scheduled for heavy duty work loads. So the likelihood of immediately switching out all conventional diesel engines for hybrid battery models is remote. However, an attractive option for rail companies might be to convert their diesel models during scheduled cyclical maintenance and overhaul periods when the locomotives are off the road anyway. And it is not that difficult to convert diesel-electric locomotives to battery power and typically, these locomotives cost up to 55% less to operate."

     

    Should I be reading something from this statement? Does Axion know or think that NS might have a plan to start converting diesel to battery powered loco's during "scheduled cyclical maintenance and overhaul periods"? Or are they just making a suggestion to NS?
    9 Feb 2014, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I have another question. How does Axion know that the battery loco's cost 55% less to operate? Are they out there on the rails performing already and giving the actual data or is this a lab guesstamet??

     

    "And it is not that difficult to convert diesel-electric locomotives to battery power and typically, these locomotives cost up to 55% less to operate."
    9 Feb 2014, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    I had the same thoughts, RB. Starting with the Conference last summer where NS openly named us a partner, there's just too many pieces of information coming together for it all to be merely coincidence.

     

    Remember the poster who mentioned that training was underway for electric loco drivers? I don't know that we ever heard from him/her again, but it's another piece to the puzzle. As John said last week "it sure seems like someone is trying to tell us something".
    9 Feb 2014, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yes, But with Axion every time you bend over to read the tea leaves reality turns out to be a thorn in the a%$. I'll take some cold hard facts vs TG smoke signals. His signaling skills stink and that's being kind.
    9 Feb 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    alsobirdman,

     

    I agree completely. The poster (flyinglow) with the training rumor posted 2 times and has never posted again. I am guessing he is either a NS insider or knows one. It does however make perfect sense to me that they are in fact setting up a training system for the new battery loco's.

     

    Since NS did not openly deploy the 999 in 2013 as stated in the sustainability report my new theory is that they are delaying the launch until spring so they can continue testing how the batteries are functioning in the winter season. They would be able to claim that the 999 has been fully tested through a severe winter season and performed perfectly.

     

    I believe this would be another important confidence builder and selling feature!
    9 Feb 2014, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    ABM: (no not Anti-Balistic Missle! ;-)) The poster's profile and comments are in the APC header if one wants to refresh their memory.
    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2014, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Ha, I also agree with you on TG's skill set. I guess the tea leaves just can not be used in this Axion story!

     

    I continue to "hope" that somehow things are going to work out for Axion and therefore us investors. I also realize that "hoping" is NOT the best investment tool or practice!

     

    In regards to the TG hype machine, I am not going to start up today about how incredibly misleading he has been!
    Oops, there I go! ;-))
    9 Feb 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, I deleted my first post as it was far too unkind.

     

    I'm here for the technology as I think it has a home. The level of talent Axion still attracts like the latest CFO who I consider, based on what I can find for a data set, to be far superior to the former CFO based on his prior positions. In addition the latest BOD add has a heck of a resume. I consider these signs to bolster my opinion that the tech. will find a home. I cannot however say I am not without fear that I will be around for the harvest.

     

    So at least it's been a great learning experience in a forum with many talented wonderful people. Can't say where the boat will dock for us as the Skipper and Gilligan are still silent lurkers! But we got Ginger and spice, can't have everything nice.
    9 Feb 2014, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    @iindy: <<< But we got Ginger and spice, can't have everything nice.>>>

     

    I always preferred Mary Anne... Ginger is too "high mantenence"!
    9 Feb 2014, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    OR, Ya gotta run w/ what rhymes. That being said, I grew up closer to the farm than Hollywood myself. And yet, now that I think about it, I don't think either one cares about what I think! So I guess they'd classify me as "no maintenance".
    9 Feb 2014, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1299) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: "They would be able to claim that the 999 has been fully tested through a severe winter season and performed perfectly. "

     

    How could they make this claim when the 999 has been sitting idle all winter? My thinking is they will still have several months to a year of testing ahead of them after the 999 starts rolling (if it ever does). Then and only then, we might see a follow-on order, but that would be an additional year away before the next electric slug is far enough along to be ready for battery installation. The only near-term salvation I can see is Power Cubes, followed by ePower trucks late this year or early next year, if testing on those is successful.
    10 Feb 2014, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    FWIW NGS I'll be suicidal if your ePower expectations are accurate. Hell, I'll be upset if we don't have two tractors hauling freight within six weeks. Just saying.
    10 Feb 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1299) | Send Message
     
    JP. I am thinking more in terms of when ePower might be buying more batteries in "significant" quantities. You still have enough batteries for the two tractors currently being built and another eight yet to be built. So, if you get all ten built this year and testing goes well--including some measure of reliability testing, then I can envision the orders for more batteries starting to come in meaningful quantities. I actually thought I was being optimistic about late this year or early next year.
    10 Feb 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    We're planning on building a ten unit demonstration fleet with our own money. We're hoping that a significant percentage of our early demonstrations will give rise to follow-on orders from operators that want to buy several units for comprehensive long-term testing throughout their networks. If things go the way I'd like to see them go, we'll be far too busy building drivetrains for paying customers to finish the company-owned demonstrator fleet. As ePower builds an order book, our backlog will by transitivity become an Axion backlog at the same time. The stock will respond to a clear path before the revenues show up on the income statement.

     

    Eaton sold 6,000 drivetrains in their first three years. While we're nowhere near as smart as Eaton our drivetrain performs better than theirs and is useful for both local and long-haul fleets. Please don't condemn ePower to mediocrity before the game even starts.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1299) | Send Message
     
    I never meant to imply mediocrity. I just have come to accept that things things like this almost always take longer than anyone expects. I had an extensive electro-mechanical background before I became a science geek, and I know that there are always bugs to work out and it never goes as fast as you want it to. I will be highly impressed if your backlog develops before Q4 and I wish you well in your effort to make that happen.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP & ngs ... You two are like mountaineers standing on a summit. Both admire the view for awhile. Yet, one looks out and sees more summits to ascend and the other looks down wondering if this isn't the one upon which they both will die.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1299) | Send Message
     
    DRich, well the descent is always the most dangerous part of any mountaineering expedition. Escpecially, when you are almost out of food and oxygen. By the way, which one am I? Lol.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >nogoodslacker ... Some things MUST be left to the imagination.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2240) | Send Message
     
    In my mind I would suspect that the new board member was hired to help determine what options Axion might have besides taking another one up the PIPE in a future financing. You don't call the fireman unless you see smoke somewhere. I suspect their best option is holding on to a percentage of the revenue potential from the IP if all else fails.
    8 Feb 2014, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Small companies are always looking for outside directors that can help move the business forward and expand the breadth of managements network. Since firefighting is a profitable specialty that carries handsome fees, firemen don't accept board positions unless their goal is to avoid problems. The sequence is wrong for the scenario you fear.
    9 Feb 2014, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Virgin Energy: http://bit.ly/LJFX5p
    Sure wish we could get him interested!
    8 Feb 2014, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I am thinking that he just might get involved in some way since he is going to be playing on the same islands that Axion supposedly has been marketing the PowerCube. I heard a rumor that solar and wind work much better with a storge system involved!!
    9 Feb 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    Another article on the same topic.

     

    http://nyti.ms/1lRObcI
    9 Feb 2014, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I thought this is an intersting bit of info!

     

    “There’s tens of thousands of islands burning diesel fuel that’s really destroying their economies because it’s so expensive,” he said. “This is just the beginning.”"
    9 Feb 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I know you will all "like" this news: "like is back and appears 100% functional.

     

    I've e-mailed SA, so if it doesn't work for you you'll need to let them know there's still an issue.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2014, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    it worked!!!
    9 Feb 2014, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Worked for me,

     

    Thanks HTL.
    9 Feb 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Works really well for me. Even better (so far) than it did in the past when I would often have to tap 2-3 times before it would take.
    9 Feb 2014, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    David DiGiacinto

     

    Why has he (Colmen) joined with AXPW now?

     

    What is his/their mandate?

     

    Who would have asked him/them to join the Board

     

    The Colmen web site begins to provide some ideas

     

    Basically they look like a group that prepares a company for a disposition that maximizes shareholder value

     

    If so - music to my ears

     

    Interested in thoughts of others - this may be the most important add to our management team yet

     

    Time will tell

     

    From the Colman web site

     

    COLMEN is a private full-line business services provider that is powered by a Team of seasoned operational and strategic experts who deliver customized results for each of our clients. COLMEN's business services include Investment Banking with a focus on both Mergers and Acquisitions and Corporate Finance.

     

    COLMEN offers all the experience and capabilities of the major consulting and investment banking firms while maintaining responsiveness and personalized attention to each client. We have access to more financial resources and have a more seasoned Team of experts than smaller firms. We understand the paramount implications of the bottom line and we follow proven techniques to generate the desired results.

     

    At COLMEN, we are committed to results because we share substantial risk with our clients. The majority of our compensation is based on the results we deliver--not on retainers or promises.

     

    COLMEN is successful because we carefully select clients who are committed to making the difficult decisions that impact positive change. Our Investment Banking Team has completed more than 300 transactions ranging from $3 million for small privately held companies to over $2.4 billion for large global public corporations.

     

    Our Turnaround and Management Advisory Teams have successfully re-positioned dozens of companies, resulting in millions of dollars of increased shareholder value.

     

    There are thousands of different types of businesses, but there are just a handful of reasons why they fail to thrive. We know the reasons and how to correct them - quickly and cost effectively
    9 Feb 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Whenever an operating company brings in a specialist like Colemen to structure a workout or sale, the master service agreement with the specialist company comes before anything else. Employees of the specialist company NEVER accept executive or director level responsibility until the master service agreement is in place and disclosed.

     

    When an associate of a company like Colemen joins a company's board of directors on his own initiative, he effectively eliminates the possibility that his company will EVER be retained to provide services. The conflicts of interest are simply too massive to overcome.

     

    Sorry to burst your bubble but Axion is not facing a workout or trying to sell itself. The chronology is wrong.
    9 Feb 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Good find, dlmca. Lends further perspective to DiGiacinto's resume, particularly regarding likely depth and breadth of contacts.

     

    To me, DiGiacinto's appointment to the board signals above all else recognition of need for, and willingness to, change. The resume of agent selected to help effect that change gives no hint of self destructive tendencies, i.e. - not an individual likely to board a sinking ship. His acceptance of a board position with Axion strikes me as prospective for "increased shareholder value" sooner rather than latter, whether through growth of Axion or its eventual acquisition by a larger firm. And I could tolerate a good bit of that "increased shareholder value"!

     

    Others disagree on need for management change, but absence of sales makes it is clear Axion has not moved much forward toward commercialization employing incumbent management skill set(s). Addition of the new board member raises prospects for revision/replacement of corporate policies in critical areas for improved marketing of PbC technology and products if not for outright replacement of top management.
    9 Feb 2014, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I agree wholeheartedly that Mr. DiGiacinto is likely to be a strong addition to the board and significantly increase the breadth of management's network in the financial community.
    9 Feb 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    Oh, man... D-Inv and JP are in agreement! Something is wrong!
    9 Feb 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (2001) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv,

     

    I wholeheartedly agree that Axion's board finally recognise that current management are not doing particularly well at commercialising the PbC, hence the addition of Mr DiGiacinto for his set of skills. Hopefully this addition gets Axion closer to where it should be as a leading global provider of Lead-Carbon based battery systems.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Tuesday's EOD stuff ... stroke, stroke, stroke, ...
    02/04/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 290, MinTrSz: 206, MaxTrSz: 77500, Vol: 2174203, AvTrSz: 7497
    Min. Pr: 0.1026, Max Pr: 0.1199, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1092
    # Buys, Shares: 127 879678, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1095
    # Sells, Shares: 161 1288525, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1090
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 6000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1031
    Buy:Sell 1:1.46 (40.46% "buys"), DlyShts 848197 (39.01%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 65.83%
    [ARCA] Came ON THE BID at 11:43, when best bid was $0.103, with a $0.106 bid (+2.91%)! Sometime between then and 13:20 ARCA moved to $0.107 (because NITE had come with a $0.1067) and then was bested by CDEL at $0.1081 and CSTI at $0.108. From ARCA's initial bid through 12:29, 296,700 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.106 (imagine that!) with a “sell” volume of 277,700 and a sell percentage of 93.60% (6.4% buys”).
    After that, we started seeing higher bids and a more (slightly higher than) normal distribution of buys and sells (through the rest of the day buy percentage was 46.17%).
    And that's how we got to $0.1150 just before the close and had a $0.1199 trade two seconds before the close. Hm ...
    The first time ARCA pulled this push up on the buy side was 1/30 (see my post for that day). Then, price was $0.091 when they entered and looked to drop further. ARCA entered and got us up as high as $0.988, +8.57%.
    That started this “bull run”.
    This is the third consecutive day of what I think is selling into strength. The change today is less strengthening, as suggested by reducing volume and buy percentage (53.89%, 55.61% and today 40.46%) even as VWAP continues higher. This is traditional topping behavior.
    Do recall that this run was started by ARCA on the bid side on 1/30 – see that day's post for some discussion of what I perceive as manipulation of the market to benefit the PIPErs. JP's comment that the fund managers traditionally get their money (by working price up?) near pipe end seems to support this. Add in that today ARCA again came strong on the bid pushing price higher (see below).
    On the less interesting, to me, stats stuff ...
    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0779 vs. $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0780, $0.0783, $0.0787, $0.0792, $0.0797, $0.0801 and $0.0805 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0873 vs. $0.0830, $0.0797, $0.0757, $0.0731, $0.0727, $0.0740, $0.0758, $0.0750 and $0.0798 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
    There were two trades that were notable: a single $0.1026 x 22.5K for the low of the day, and a single $0.1199 x 12.6K trade. NOTE! That $0.1199 trade was the last of the day, at 15:59:58, 2 seconds before the close, and is considered a candidate for TFH manipulation suspicions! With a cost of $1510.74 plus fees, it would be cheap enough for someone like ... oh, a PIPEr. Keep these two in mind as you think about the following data.
    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.50%, 0.76%, 5.16%, -27.39% and -39.91% respectively. Price spread today was 16.86% vs. 18.88%, 22.83%, 8.69%, 10.25%, 1.43%, 13.00%, 4.73%, 44.79% and 14.26% on prior days.
    If we remove those notable trades mentioned above, the low moves to $0.1030 and the high moves to $0.1150. We had multiple trades at these alternate low and high prices. Using those prices today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales would've moved 2.90%, -3.36%, 5.16%, -27.39% and -39.91% respectively, and the spread would drop to 11.65%.
    There were 29 larger trades (>=15K size), 10.00% of the day's 290 trades, for 766300 shares, 35.25% of day's volume of 2,174,203. Buys were 199,700 shares, 26.06% of the large block volume at a VWAP of $0.1112. Sells were 566,600 shares, 73.94% of large blocks volume at a VWAP of $0.1088. Yesterday the buy and sell VWAPs were identical to each other at $0.1041, quite odd.

     

    More details, thoughts and charts in the blog here.
    http://bit.ly/1eFQs6X
    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2014, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Good grief! Look what the edit comment did to my EOD post!

     

    It's either putting extra line breaks where they don't belong, or dropping them in this case.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    I'm not going to pursue it with SA - just too short of time now.

     

    I hope somebody who has the interest and time will do it.

     

    If you really want to see what I said, just follow the link in that comment - I don't think another long post here would be enthusiastically anticipated, or welcomed, here.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2014, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Interesting ref. point. Retail. It's a PowerCube as well. €969.00 EUR

     

    12V 120Ah Lithium Ion Battery

     

    http://bit.ly/1aKIQ1J
    9 Feb 2014, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Who in their right mind is going to spend over $1000 US to replace their current gel or AGM battery with a 12V Li-ion battery?
    9 Feb 2014, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, A very affluent race car driver. Perhaps daddies little girl or boy?

     

    I stated a couple years back that I have not spent that much time around uber wealth but there is a market. Heck you have people spending more than you and I can dream about in free cash flow for things they wear once and don't want to be seen with again.

     

    Hey, I cringe here when I here about those that buy Bummers and don't feel that they can trust them because of what we're interested in. If I'm paying that kind of money it better kiss my back side.

     

    It's all good. But different perspectives.
    10 Feb 2014, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    A cool thousand bucks. For roughly a 1.5 KWh battery. But notice the limited discharge and charge rates. It's barely a 0.5C battery, coming and going....
    Three PbC's in parallel would cost about the same, and contain the same energy, but the power they could deliver (and absorb) would blow this off the charts. Three paralleled PbC's could deliver and absorb 300 amps easy, and probably more. They would be bulkier and heavier though...

     

    ps: and not to kvetch, but it sure would be nice to have just exactly this kind of data page available for the PbC, wouldn't it?
    10 Feb 2014, 01:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you guys may have missed a couple points.

     

    The price of €969.00 works out to $1,321.

     

    The maximum pulse charge of 100 Amps would never start that rich guy's race car because the typical engine want 500 to 700 CCA.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I changed the SLI battery in my mothers car at the end of fall for 60 USD retail at Advanced Auto. 650 CCA.

     

    I will add they gave me a promotional code once about a 1.5 years ago that gives you 40 USD off of a 100+ USD order and it still works. Probably shrinks them down to only making 30 % gross margin. Oh, and the nice young man installed it. :-D
    10 Feb 2014, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    I don't run with the rich folk either, but in this case I will point out that Rosewater told Axion and us for a year that they would have no trouble selling a $45K Hub to the rich so that they could use it for their electric toys. Then the whole thing fell through because apparently they wanted Axion to price their batteries in the system at a loss to keep the price down. My point is that daddy might spend $1000 on some bling for his wife or his daughter, but they can't wear a Li-ion battery on their wrist or around their neck.
    10 Feb 2014, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Could be LabTech.

     

    BTW, I'm not sure we will ever know what really happened between Rosewater and Axion. IIRC the pricing request you point to was only speculation in this forum.

     

    I often wondered if it was that Rosewater was looking for a premium price and thus was up against the big boys. My thought was that if you're buying an expensive unit do you buy Rosewater or Siemens as one example. And PbC vs lithium, for those that don't know any better.
    10 Feb 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    "BTW, I'm not sure we will ever know what really happened between Rosewater and Axion. IIRC the pricing request you point to was only speculation in this forum."

     

    My recollection is that the pricing request was from a comment made by TG during the Q&A of a CC. I don't remember which one it was, but I almost fell out of my seat when he said it because I couldn't believe he did say it.
    10 Feb 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, Interesting. I'll have to go back and take a gander. I thought it was only brought up in this forum. I guess, if he in fact did state that, it would in my mind indicate a pretty sour relationship.
    10 Feb 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    LabTech> The pricing issue wasn't speculation. It was a conversation I had with Joe P who was complaining that Tom wouldn't accept loss leader pricing. My response was that companies who build for a dime and sell for a nickel don't long survive.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (491) | Send Message
     
    I could see a few rich guys who buy it to run their golf cart around. In retirement communities, golf carts aren't just for playing golf you know.

     

    Also - some commercial applications for golf carts - like resorts might like the power density.

     

    Not saying its a big competitor to PcB, but they might sell a few. Playing with batteries is fun, some small company might sell enough to make enough money to cover overhead and feed the kids another dinner.
    10 Feb 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Thanks for the clarification.
    11 Feb 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    >LabTech

     

    The reason Axion hasn't secured a customer is that Tom won't do loss-leading for anyone for any purpose, and I think it's a mistake. It's not like selling a few batteries at a loss is going to eat into our PROFITS! LMFAO!
    11 Feb 2014, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    They are still an independent company because they don't have debt. How long you think that would last if they started "giving away" the batteries. It still would not guarantee sales but it would debt.
    11 Feb 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Patrick Young ... I think you are totally wrong about why Axion has never secured a customer. True ... Mr. Granville probably doesn't see the benefit of selling for a loss, but I think the mistake was made by going whale hunting to the exclusion of all the other fish in the sea. The benefit of this was great for an R&D company and close to fatal for a commercial enterprise. All the eggs in too few baskets.

     

    I don't think Axion knows how to market to small & mid-sized developers. I really believe that ePower came as a shock about market opportunities. I know that Axion has passed over & rejected several similar sized companies with markets that may not be as potentially large as trucking drivetrains but, in my opinion, worth pursuing. I think this oversight & lack of ability is the reason for the new board member.

     

    The whales may someday be landed and a feast will ensue. I think that in the last 2 years a realization that the Company needs to eat while the hunt goes on and that they are lacking talent & tools to fill the larder.
    11 Feb 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I agree 100%, and the only reason ePower is there now is that JP and another person set up the deal. TG did it for them not ePower. TG didn't think there was anything there. Now it's the savior ?
    11 Feb 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's not quite accurate LT. When I first introduced ePower in 2010 Axion was still grappling with manufacturing issues and ePower was still laboring under the misconception that an upgrade from flooded to AGM batteries would do the trick. So the two companies decided to follow their own paths. By late 2012 ePower had discovered that all the problems Axion predicted in 2010 were real and insurmountable. When they got back together Axion's manufacturing issues had been overcome and a deal was struck that suited the needs of both parties.
    11 Feb 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    so tell who set up the latest meeting that led to adoption ?

     

    It wasn't TG or Vani either so tell everyone who did bring the deal to the table this last time.
    11 Feb 2014, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I took the initiative to get everybody back together after discussing ePower's battery problems with a friend in France who has been working with a Turkish group that wants to buy a tractor. I can't see how you find fault with Axion for letting ePower wallow until it discovered that it needed more than AGM could deliver. I don't know about anybody else but I hate salesmen who pester me after I tell them I've chosen a different path.
    11 Feb 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    My point was to agree with DRich that TG really doesn't know who his customers are or where potential lies & they pass opportunities and they probably are not following up.

     

    The best days work you've done lately was making that phone call and putting them together again.
    Without ePower there wouldn't be much to hang your hat on.

     

    I'm thru with this topic, and btw, very nice video. I do think Jay is on to something.
    11 Feb 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think Axion played the game well with ePower, but I can certainly see how you might take a different view.

     

    Everything I've seen says ePower has immense potential, but we won't have proof until fleet operators begin hauling their cargos on their routes with their drivers. Mercifully we expect each two week demonstration to give us stacks of hard credible data that we could never generate on our own initiative.
    11 Feb 2014, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I don't like salesmen that make a pest of themselves but a follow-up phone call once or twice a year, just to check-in, I don't consider being pesky. Sure, it is all well & good to let a customer like ePower continue wallow, but good marketing entails you let them know you're concerned about their progress & see if any of the problem previously discovered are manifesting themselves. Soft selling. Who knows they might fix their problem without your product at which time you can congratulate them on their success and move on but there is no harm is offering help if they need it and might have forgotten your product could still be a solution.
    I don't have anything that would count as evidence but I just "feel" that Axion lacks talent to Market itself well into mid-tier developers. To-date most of what I read & hear are clients that sought them out or are put together via third party contacts. Effort has been put into whale hunting but there are more fish in the sea and a fisherman needs to go seek them out or at least move along the bank and cast many times.

     

    I see the new board member as an admission that just such guidance in Marketing & Finance is needed. I'm glad to see such a person come to the Company because they must see something in Axion as well.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There was a lot of follow up during the two-year hiatus, but most of it was three or four way stuff coordinated by my buddy in France. There were also legacy internal politics at ePower that complicated matters greatly. I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment of Axion's ability to focus on the middle-tier, but the idea that ePower was ignored or abandoned simply isn't accurate.

     

    I view every new director as an attempt to shore up a company's competence in areas where the new director has demonstrated strengths.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... I've got no clue whether ePower was or wasn't ignored during the 2 years of allowing them to "wallow". Just the way I read it in the context of disliking pesky salesmen. I'm sure there are more & complicating circumstances that don't really interest me to know. I really am more frustrated by Axion not being able to keep that PbC line active for more than a couple days a year.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    No doubt, and it definitely wasn't going during the annual meeting. But the lead the lead smelters for the toll contract were.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I share your frustration, but my time with ePower has given me a clearer view of the level of technical and engineering support new customers require. I wouldn't want to even try and count the number of engineering support days Axion has invested in ePower, but I can easily see how supporting a broad based marketing program could send marketing and support costs through the roof. My immediate inclination would be to get out there with a scatter gun and shoot anything that moves, but I sure wouldn't want to layer on the overhead costs of such an effort. Don't you just hate tradeoffs?
    11 Feb 2014, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Yes I do. Now where is that "strategic investor" Axion seemingly misplaced or better yet an "angel investor". Somebody with little money and an Axionista's conviction. Trouble is, I think "The Automaker That Can Not Be Named" cornered the market on battery crazed investors.

     

    I'm glad making decisions like that are not my job.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I still suspect that Tom had a strategic investor on line who got greedy at the 11th hour and forced him to choose between dancing with the devil for dollars or selling our collective soul for a few dollars more.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Not a good outcome given the potential partnership indication. I guess we were all expecting a fist full of dollars.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    When I consider the vultures that have stripped everything but the US out of ZBB over the last several months I'm leery of strategic partners who only want an application class or a continent or two of exclusivity. Money from financial vultures can give rise to transitory pain. Money from strategic vultures can leave one in eternal agony.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    "I still suspect that Tom had a strategic investor on line who got greedy at the 11th hour and forced him to choose between dancing with the devil for dollars or selling our collective soul for a few dollars more."

     

    I think this hits the nail on the head. We have many strategic partners but they're all like "im not gonna be the first guy to have an iphone" but what Axion needs is for the paradigm to be like, "i don't care if they ask me to pay $200 a month for two years, i gotta have an iphone" (replace 'iphone' with 'PbC' and you get the picture...paradigm, lexicon, relevance)..
    11 Feb 2014, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    You know that I obviously don't have the answers. But I have watched business long enough to know there will always be a huge disconnect between perceived worth and market cap. How it's resolved is usually not what I as a serf would expect.

     

    TG holds a very interesting tech. but I remain a serf.
    11 Feb 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    JP

     

    Enough with the why nots in the fine print

     

    Men like DiGiacinto do not join a Board to sit idle

     

    They have connections

     

    They have experience

     

    They know the game

     

    Someone has asked him to join because they see a need he can fill - and needs to be filled

     

    At the least he should be keeping a careful and respected critical eye on management

     

    A great resource for our new CFO

     

    Perhaps a future successor to TG

     

    I look forward to the results on all counts and welcome DD to the Board
    9 Feb 2014, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I see a ton of great reasons for bringing Mr. DiGiacinto on as a director. The two things I don't see as reasons are (a) a restructuring or (b) a sale of the company. Both of those activities generate big fees for a specialist but you can't earn them if you're a director of a company already.
    9 Feb 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    All the speculation is interesting. I have no opinion except that I think any new board member is probably a minor event. We Axionistas are so hungry for news, though, that like predators with no prey we gnaw at length on any old bone in the path.
    A couple more basic questions, though: Why can a new board member be appointed rather than elected by vote of shareholders? How can a new board seat be created apparently from thin air without shareholder approval?
    It's a potential major problem, because ultimately shareholders with enough of a consensus should be able to vote out the Directors or management of any company (not talking about Axion in particular). However if management can create board seats at will and stack them with whoever they wish without a shareholder vote, the collective power of shareholders is very weakened.
    I am used to in other companies I own getting to vote on board nominees who do not get the seat unless shareholders give the nod. I like that system much better.
    9 Feb 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion's by laws give the board the power to fill vacancies on the board and to create new seats. In either case the board has the authority to appoint new directors to fill the vacant seats until the next meeting of the stockholders. These are standard provisions in most corporate bylaws and appointing new directors between meetings is not at all rare if the new directors have some talents the board believes it needs..
    9 Feb 2014, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "All the speculation is interesting. I have no opinion except that I think any new board member is probably a minor event."

     

    I agree. I have watched other small companies add what appeared to be a heavy weight board director. In the short term, it's really a non-event. Maybe it will turn into something later.
    9 Feb 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    Ret.A. ---- From the 8-K (& PR),

     

    "Effective February 1, 2014, the Board of Directors of Axion Power International, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed veteran operating and financial executive, David T. DiGiacinto, to a newly created seat on the Board, bringing the total number of Directors to six (6). Mr. DiGiancinto’s appointment will serve until the formal shareholder election for board members to be held at the Company’s 2014 Annual Meeting. "

     

    Isn't the foregoing quote effectively saying "we have expanded our senior management team with the hire of DiGiacinto and will look for shareholder ratification of the action at the annual shareholders meeting"?
    9 Feb 2014, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That's the way I read it.
    9 Feb 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    I have concerns about DD re other interest and conflicts. That said some one or somebodies who care about AXPW know this is going to be important to the commercailization of the potential of AXPW

     

    DD may not work out

     

    That said, governance and the right people in place is of significant importance with a smaller company looking to find its place

     

    This appointment will be significant

     

    And this not hopium..Just good business
    9 Feb 2014, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • RyanfBell
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    Just finished watching the Wolf of wall street and couldn't help but feel like I was one of those penny stock suckers he took to the cleaners.

     

    Thanks to the inter web , that kinda thing doesn't happen to as many people anymore.
    9 Feb 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I haven't seen that movie yet, but I truly believe, when the right time comes, that we would be a better one. If this (Axion's and Axionistas') long, tortuous journey ever reaches our hoped-for happy ending, it will make for one heck of an epic saga. And amongst all the steaming piles of sequel-ed cliche that hollywood churns out, year upon year, certainly ours would have the advantage of being a good story.
    10 Feb 2014, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how riveting the story would be, but it would most certainly be epic in length.
    10 Feb 2014, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    The Wolf of Wallstreet is a wild movie and explains a lot of the unbelievable abuse that goes on in this game. I would like to think that it is not like that in today's world but I am not convinced!

     

    I believe it is a must see movie for anyone interested in the stock market game!
    10 Feb 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    That epoch was a wild and wooly time, but those days are long gone.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "...but those days are long gone."

     

    My limited experience says that the game is still on but the rules have changed. Thieves that are rewarded and rarely charged don't just stop.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    "..but those days are long gone."

     

    My limited experience says that the game is still on but the rules have changed. Thieves that are rewarded and rarely charged don't just stop.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Willie Sutton supposedly said he robbed banks because that's where the money was. Back in the day there were a lot of firms that had a similar view of the stock markets and profited handsomely from shady dealings. Over the last three decades the SEC has made it much tougher for crooks to prosper. There are still abuses, but they pale in comparison to the abuses of an earlier time in history.

     

    Ultimately it's a bit like people's concerns over pollution. Even when things get a lot cleaner we tend to look at the problems rather than the progress.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    RBrun: On CNBC Joe Kernan said he used to work those bucket shops before he moved on and eventually started reporting later.

     

    He said the movie is nothing like Wall Street because those shops didn't live anywhere near Wall Street. And they weren't attractive places and people either.

     

    IOW, typical "Poetic License" taken to make an entertaining movie.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2014, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2298) | Send Message
     
    @iindy

     

    ... you can say that again!
    10 Feb 2014, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (3236) | Send Message
     
    In 2000 there was a movie called: The Boiler Room
    It sounds somewhat similar but it's from the point of view of a newbie who didn't know what was going on at first.
    It's on the net. YouTube has it but wanted money.
    11 Feb 2014, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (587) | Send Message
     
    Boiler room was good, but Wolf of Wall street is based on the real life story of Jordan Belfort, with Hollywood license of course. If you watch the youtube video's of Jordan Belfort though his personal stories almost seem more unbelievable than the movie itself. Interestingly after watching the movie my reaction was "I want to buy SHOO!" =D
    Another good movie you should check out, is "Other People's Money", (1991) starring Danny DeVito.
    Personally I don't believe Axion is a penny stock scam, just a struggling company with good intentions. I own no position in the company, although if I saw real progress I may decide to buy one day. I've enjoyed following this story so far. I obviously disagree with the anti-Tesla comments around here though.
    As for whether these type of scams still exist, I personally believe the opposite of what most are saying here, that in fact, the internet has given rise to even more of these scams than before, as for the SEC protecting shareholders, I have little faith they are staffed anywhere near where they would need to be to go after all the problems. Heck we've seen enough shaddy things in the past decade with giant large listed companies (A la Enron, Mortgage fraud, shaddy BK's, etc), that them going after OTC? Forget about it..
    If I was going to make a movie about the events here, I'd actually center it more around Quercus, and the short sellers that followed them around. There is an amazing story in there, imo..
    12 Feb 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Somewhat recently, a question was raised about the life expectancy of the PbC battery.

     

    Since the negative electrode is made of activated carbon and operates electrostatically with no chemical reaction taking place on the negative electrode, the life expectancy of the negative electrode would be almost unlimited. The positive electrode would be the primary failure point in the PbC battery. Without going into any differences for the battery specifications for the auto market versus, railroad or grid storage, etc., the positive electrode in the PbC battery could be expected to be designed to the same standards as other lead acid batteries in the marketplace.

     

    In general, in cases in which a lead acid battery is kept at 100 percent state of charge, the positve electrode can be expected to fail before the negative electrode does. In cases in which a lead acid battery is regularily operated at a partial state of charge, as in a
    stop/start application, the negative electrode will ususally fail first. Such a failure will be even more so the expected case where regenerative braking is included in the stop/start application.

     

    So, it could be said that in cases in which the Axion PbC is to be kept at 100 percent state of charge, it should last as long as any other standard lead acid battery. In cases in which the Axion PbC is
    to be operated at a partial state of charge, as in Gen 1 or Gen 2 Microhybrid applications, the PbC battery should last until the positive electrode eventually fails.

     

    But, so far, the test results show that the PbC battery can be discharged to a 100 percent state of discharge for up to 2,500 cycles. It can cycle at up to 100,000 times involving a partial state of charge. A cycling number of 100,000 is the equivalent of eight (8) years of service in a stop/start application.
    9 Feb 2014, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Axion has done a lot of work on developing more durable positive electrodes because that component has become a failure mechanism. IIRC at least two of Axion's 13 patents focus on the positive grid which has historically only been an issue in flooded batteries.
    10 Feb 2014, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    IIRC the 2,500 cycles took quite a long time to complete and I don't recall the number of hours it took to complete one cycle, but believe they could complete only a couple cycles per day. Again, I think that Axion stopped with the testing not because the PbC failed at 2,500 cycles, but at that time there was no reason/desire to continue. I believe that the testing was done on one of the older batteries as well and the technology had already improved.
    10 Feb 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    " I believe that the testing was done on one of the older batteries as well and the technology had already improved. "

     

    Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on how you view it, that's not how many industries view it. Make product or process changes and you have to do risk assessments that might require that you run the tests over again. The "improved" part needs confirmation either via expert assessment that the changes do not add risk or validation testing. Could be that's where Axion is as it relates to BMW or their potential partners.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Per Axion website the testing continues!

     

    "Development Collaborators

     

    In addition to our in-house scientific staff, we have contracted industry-leading experts to work with us to continue to develop, improve and test our technology. Our batteries are currently on test with strategic partners and potential customers including automotive vehicle manufacturers and a major train company. We have also worked with and continued to work with, major lead battery manufacturers including East Penn Manufacturing Company, Inc.

     

    At the end of 2005 we entered into a memorandum of understanding with East Penn, the largest independent battery manufacturer in North America. The MOU established the framework for a three-phase joint development and testing program that includes laboratory testing; prototype development and testing; and co-development of a series of pre-commercial prototypes. East Penn has been conducting independent testing to confirm our in-house test results and more fully characterize our prototypes. Initial results from East Penn focused on comparing lead-acid batteries to our batteries and have shown that the Axion prototypes continue to cycle long after the lead-acid battery control devices have failed. Testing is continuing to determine the ultimate number of cycles that can be attained from our prototypes. "

     

    http://bit.ly/V6ZqN8
    10 Feb 2014, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    RBrun - boilerplate that has been on the website for years.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I understand, just thought I would post it for the entertainment value!
    10 Feb 2014, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If East Penn was anywhere near the rapacious competitor you guys presume the last thing they'd do is give Axion an $8 million annual revenue base in the form of a flooded battery contract. They've been a stellar partner since I wrote the original alliance agreements and they've shown no signs of predatory tendencies. I wish the other big players in the battery industry had half the integrity of East Penn.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    I don't presume that, I was stating a fact that the language has been around in the same form for years.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    iinde, this was kind of my argument a while back---that PbC ver 2.0, that is, the high volume production-ready commercial kind made with the new continuous roll sheeting process carbon, that PbC would require *some* level of new testing and characterization vs the old version... maybe just a little more testing, but maybe a lot... After all, the customer, especially the gorilla type ones are always right...

     

    And seems like all this time passing would have allowed for, and could account for *a lot*...
    10 Feb 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, You are correct. How much testing would be required we don't know as that would depend on what the various team members and their corporate structure required. BTW, this might have been rolled into testing being done with potential partners as well since these efforts would require product/process changes. Every change, even moving a production line or things like changing a supplier needs to be managed for risk.

     

    The auto industry even requires continuous conformance testing to try to catch changes that might occur that are not captured through normal channels. Unknown unknowns!
    10 Feb 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    metro,
    If it was me, I'd want to deep cycle the living cr@p out of the thing until it crumbled, just to fix the rightmost boundary.
    Take (either a 12 or 16V PbC) which we believe comes in at around 50 Amp-hours, put it in a water bath, and then crank that thing up and down at 1C, over and over without relent, until it dies. By definition, that's basically two hours per round trip. Call it ten cycles a day. In a year, that's 3,500 100% DOD cycles. In two years you could get to 7,000. If it lives that long then okay maybe you give up. ;)
    10 Feb 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... All this time passing DOES account for "a lot". If you want to see the "gorilla" customers make move (since they DO know what the banana tastes like), threaten their food supply. Pray for diesel to go over $4.50 a gallon or WTI to hit $110/bbl. I'm not sure that completing the northern section of the Keystone will do that ... but it might. Saber rattling in the East could also. We'll find out by November '14.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    "It can cycle at up to 100,000 times involving a partial state of charge. A cycling number of 100,000 is the equivalent of eight (8) years of service in a stop/start application. "

     

    Interesting tidbit of info there, U~ 393. Thanks. May have seen it before but can't recall (may be like recalling where I left my reading glasses or coffee cup).

     

    Eight (8) years in a stop/start application would greatly reduce if not eliminate aftermarket battery sales volumes (relative to conventional AGMs). Reason there for established lead-acid battery manufacturers to first try to keep the PbC off the market and if that doesn't work out to acquire the tech or be among first in partnering with Axion to produce PbCs in volume.
    10 Feb 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I've thought that for some time. The established LAB suppliers would love for AGM to stay the gold standard for lower end SS. And believe me they are not thinking about the consumer. They are making a killing off AGM.
    10 Feb 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    JP ->

     

    I have not had time to read through all of the patent material, but the US patent issued to Axion in June
    of 2012 does cover improvements to the positive electrode. The improvements included in that patent cover the reduction or even the possible elimination of the flaking of the positive electrode material during charging and discharging. Such flaking results in loss of the positive electrode material as it flakes and falls to the bottom of the battery casing.

     

    In addition to reduced resistance for the current collector grid, this patent allows for Axion to manufacture only one design for that grid. This means that Axion can use this one single grid design for batteries of different specifications.

     

    Usually, batteries with different specifications will require a collector grid that is designed specifically for those particular specifications. This adds costs for the design and manufacturing of each different battery line.

     

    With this collector grid design, Axion needs to make only one collector grid design and it can be used in any battery specification that they may make.
    10 Feb 2014, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    D-inv -->

     

    Axion mentions it in their white paper, and I have to admit that
    it has been some time since I last read it.

     

    I have heard of people getting upwards of 7 years from a LAB,
    but that is not heard of very often.
    10 Feb 2014, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    User,

     

    Do you have a view on Axion as an investment? Are you buying, selling, waiting, or holding? I would be interested in your views if your willing to share.

     

    Thanks.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (631) | Send Message
     
    I believe it was at the 2012 annual meeting that TG said something along the lines that the auto OEMs weren't really interested in more than 100,000 cycles from the PbC. The implication was that the OEMs didn't want to alter the replacement battery market.

     

    BTW, the 8 year number comes from the assumption of 1 start-stop event per mile and 12,500 miles/year of driving which has been the assumed baseline going back probably 4 or more years.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    APM, For items w/ standard replacement cycles like wiper blades and batteries the automakers negotiate terms up front for reduced initial cost and in some cases part of the sell price for replacement parts. That's why you see so much activity in wiper blades to come up with patented attachment methods and special aerodynamics etc. It's to lock you into one provider or garner licensing fees from other providers that want to service those applications.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Is the PbC too good?,,,,lasts too long??
    11 Feb 2014, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    "8 year number comes from the assumption of 1 start-stop event per mile and 12,500 miles/year "

     

    Thanks for the reminder, al. Should have remembered that assumption and your point about possibility auto OEMs didn't want to disrupt replacement battery market is pretty darned significant IMO. It's a dimension I had not considered, but very logical. Displacement a lot of higher margin aftermarket sales of Tier 1 parts suppliers and prices to OEMs could be expected to rise.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Oops, Sorry Raleigh. the new posts box often lets me down for some reason. To answer your question it certainly could be for the battery suppliers. Why sell something that lasts 8 years when you're selling AMG batteries at a far faster clip. As for the auto makers? Well if the regulators tie it into emissions standards I think they require eight or ten years in Cali. I'd need to investigate to find the actual duration. So I guess the answer is that it depends where you stand
    11 Feb 2014, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3699) | Send Message
     
    Hi ii,
    Last I heard California requires 7 years or 70,000 miles warranty for emissions parts.
    12 Feb 2014, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed, Perfect. I thank you sir!

     

    So Axion is probably statistically around where it needs to be for an emissions related component if classified as such in advanced SS systems. That is if the level of testing done reflects the type of system it would be used for which I think is directionally correct but still a little stretch on my part. It would need to be tested to the manufacturers specific SS algorithm.
    12 Feb 2014, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since we know that Axion helped BMW develop the testing algorithm, I'd say we're at least headed in the right direction. The key will be getting regulators to (a) classify the battery as an emissions related component, or (b) change emissions inspection protocols to verify the functionality of stop-start systems. It may take a while, but either one would be a game changer.
    12 Feb 2014, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. Supplier component timing is directionally pointing to the not too distant future to get the ball rolling. Lots of work to be done if its to happen in the time frame I've envisioned.

     

    A sign please!
    12 Feb 2014, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Just a tiny sign, like maybe a joint venture with Banner, Moll or one of the other foreign battery manufacturers who supply BMW.
    12 Feb 2014, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, That would work for me. Maybe even that upstart SA company First National Battery/Metair. Those darn intruders that just bought out companies in Romania and Turkey. Silly upstart stole that BMW 3 series business. ;-I

     

    http://bit.ly/1kBPfj6
    12 Feb 2014, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    A tiny sign or guidepost that could supply one model for any manufacturer would probably do wonders. Peugot/Citroen seems to be the only automaker willing to take a chance on something other than li-ion.
    12 Feb 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    >Stefan Moroney,

     

    OR, they are the first to say they are willing to buck the Li fad!
    12 Feb 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Appointment DD

     

    Possible negatives

     

    1. Just going on Board for sheer joy of doing so

     

    2. Joining because things much worse than we think and he needs to pull out a financing or the company is lost.

     

    3. Investments including the state of PA will be lost if action not taken

     

    Possible positives

     

    1. PA resident wants to see potential realized. Has the skills and resources to help

     

    2. A potential investor or strategic partner has asked him to join. Complete hands on due diligence and structure best deal.

     

    3. Mandate to select options refine negotiate and execute to add the best strategic partner to take AXPW forward

     

    4. succession plan for TG

     

    5. Some combination of the foregoing

     

    Time will tell. But I see far more positive potential than negative
    10 Feb 2014, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    2. A potential investor or strategic partner has asked him to join. Complete hands on due diligence and structure best deal.
    IMO, I agree with the positives and a combo tied to #2 above is most likely.
    and I do agree that possibly things are much worse or at least uncertain than most here think. Worse may not be a good choice of words, but the next capital raise is probably far from certain other than a strategic partner already in the wings. If so, yes, I think they added him to the BOD.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Sarbanes-Oxley set a much higher standard for directors. The due diligence obligations before accepting a board seat are the work of months, the risk of accepting a post is an order of magnitude higher than it once was, the possibility that a board seat will lead to lucrative consulting work has been eliminated and the consequences of joining a board for a company that subsequently runs into trouble are grave. Divided loyalties are a sure recipe for disaster. Speculating about the possible evil motives of a new board member is a new low, even for some commenters on this board who seem to enjoy the search for a dark side to everything.

     

    There is only one reason for a professional to join a board of directors – a conviction that the company is solid and that his experience and contacts can help take the business to the next level.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    Yes John, it is easy to come to the conclusion that many here have absolutely no clue as to how SO has changed things, and also have such a high degree of negativity that it has become a driving factor in their line of reasoning. I think if I felt that way I would just move on and and be happy rather than continuing to wallow in self-pity.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    I don't buy it JP, the PIPER's required a longer term mgt. contract and also the approval of 150 M more shares, they could have required a BOD seat as well. It's done every day. Icahn gets board seats in almost all his activist roles..... so all this risk holds no water with me.

     

    No one mentioned anything evil, or dark side to it. The reason this seat was created and someone with his credentials is an important topic and I can assure you it was not done without need and probably someone outside of AXPW's inner circle requesting it.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The PIPE investors could have asked for a board seat, but it would have screwed up their plans to sell shares as fast as they got them because you can't sell stock if you have access to non-public information.

     

    Icahan buys a position and then acts on his own behalf as a stockholder. He doesn't beard for somebody else or go in with an undisclosed secret agenda.

     

    Speculation about a new director's divided loyalties and hidden agendas is reprehensible.
    10 Feb 2014, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1966) | Send Message
     
    JP-
    I fully agree. I've been on Boards of small companies that were financially shaky. Taking in rounds of investment capital means that you need to show you are doing everything correctly. There may not be many lawsuits against Board members, but when you are in the hot seat, you do not want to be a test case.

     

    Unless this man is just a risk junkie, or desperate for the few $$ he will get out of this, he comes with good motivations and beliefs that this will not be a waste of time and increased risk.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    ABM: " wallow in self-pity"

     

    Presumptuous that!

     

    In short, display of negative concerns might be a bias but doesn't indicate things suggestive of what you mention.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2014, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Just seems like, by all we can read, that dude's time is pretty valuable. Such a dude has got a lot better things to do than hang with losers. Therefore, I don't think this dude would join the story unless it was still getting better.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    "a dude has got a lot better things to do than hang with losers."

     

    Never saw "the Big Lebowski"?

     

    I just bought a rug that really ties the room together beautifully. :)
    10 Feb 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Congrats on the rug RA, but I would scotchguard it if I were you. For the marmots.
    10 Feb 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    >> HTL, Perhaps, but if someone is that negative about the prospects for a company, from the top management down to sales, then why stay a shreholder and why keep posting. And if you don't own any shares, what could possibly motivate a constant barage of negativity?

     

    I'm waiting for announcement of a $10M sale because there will be posts such as "only 10M? Why not 20, we need to replace the BOD, the CEO, the sales dept., etc."
    10 Feb 2014, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    ABM: True, but considering, even hammering because of a bearish outlook for whatever reason, is not a reason to assume "... wallowing in self-pity", IMO.

     

    As to what one should do when that negative, of course that is their call that fits their personality, decision-making process, ... and is right for them regardless of its "rightness" for others.

     

    One thing I enjoy about what we have here is that most folks understand "different strokes for different folks" and don't get into the yadoodle mode of castigation because someone else views things differently.

     

    Even repetition may be beneficial as I may have missed a pertinent consideration in the past and may get reminded.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    ABM -

     

    How about we start off with a sales announcement of $1M first? Sure, $10M would be nice, but baby steps ...
    10 Feb 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    481> Yeah marmots plus those thugs that break in to pee on it. I really did just buy a pair of rugs, and they DO tie the rooms together nicely. :-)
    10 Feb 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4809) | Send Message
     
    "I'm waiting for announcement of a $10M sale because there will be posts such as "only 10M? Why not 20, ...."

     

    :-) How about, "It's about TIME! Shoulda happened last year."
    10 Feb 2014, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    LOL, yes, that would be a positive negative comment.
    10 Feb 2014, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    To keep those pesky home invaders out....you just gotta nail a 2 X 4 to the floor and place a ladder back chair under the door knob......
    10 Feb 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    D-inv> LOL, yes I'm sure somebody will spin a 7 figure sale as somehow management 'failing to execute': "Yeah but what was our cost? Why don't they report the margin on the sale and whether it's going to be a repeat customer?"

     

    Methinks they don't know whether it's a repeat customer until it repeats.
    10 Feb 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1299) | Send Message
     
    Well, they need about $30M in sales per year above what they are selling now to start making a profit. So, yes, there is still room for wanting more if they make a $10M sale any time soon. I'll take that as a start, though.
    11 Feb 2014, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • rupers
    , contributor
    Comments (68) | Send Message
     
    OT: PLUG
    Plug Power Inc. (PLUG), the Latham, New York-based maker of fuel-cell systems for warehouse forklifts, won a contract to supply power units, fuel and services at six North American distribution centers for a retailer.
    Plug will supply more than 1,500 fuel cells, hydrogen fueling systems and maintenance services over two years and plans to begin operating at the first site during the second quarter, the company said today in a statement. Plug didn’t identify the retailer or disclose terms of the deal.
    Plug rose 21 percent to $3.76 at 8:37 a.m. in premarket trading in New York. The shares have more than quadrupled since the company said Dec. 4 that cost reductions and increasing orders may generate an annual profit for the first time this year.
    Currently trading at about 3.63 pps, for a 17+% increase today.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/MFpmAw

     

    And yet another fine, if novel, application for a safe, cheap, durable, lasts-for-years, low-temperature tolerant, fast-recharging battery.. ;)
    10 Feb 2014, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Good one, 48!!
    10 Feb 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • geopark
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    Thanks all for the discussion of Mr DiGiacinto to the Axion Board. I posted an almost giddy positive immediately about the appointment as soon as I read about it. Soon after LT offered up some 'negative' alternative assessments. JP threw in some legal realities and other 'positive' thoughts and over the next few days and so many others have weighed in as to various scenarios in relation to the appointment.

     

    What I really appreciate is how this discussion made me question my own initial reaction. That said, I've come back to "The Sunny Side of the Street". I like almost everything about the appointment.

     

    My primary worry remains (buyer diminishes legacy holders) but I am long and staying long. Doing some trading on swings but holding a core >100Ksh.
    10 Feb 2014, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Anybody notice Tesla attempting to break through its 52 week high??
    10 Feb 2014, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    Got to love a market cap over 24 billion!!
    10 Feb 2014, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Particularly when your financial statements peg your stockholders equity at $564 million. Axion would need trade at $3 if it wanted a comparable book to BS ratio.
    10 Feb 2014, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I will take $3.00!! ;-))
    10 Feb 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John,
    Ah the days when we thought $3/share was right around the corner for Axion. Those were the days of railroads and oil wells and BMW fleet testing being right around the corner.

     

    Ah well, maybe someday.
    10 Feb 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's going to be a lot tougher with 215 million shares outstanding than it would have been with 85 million outstanding after the 2009 placement, but the last four years have been a real education for me in the amount of time the first tier takes before making an implementation decision. On the other hand, my confidence that the PbC will be a significant player in several important niches is a full order of magnitude higher than it was in 2009.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    Given the current dynamics of approximately 215M shares; another financing coming up before the end of the year; and the last four years of experience in observing this sector ... do you have an 18-36 month outlook on Axion and based on what?
    10 Feb 2014, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    At this point I don't have a clear outlook beyond the next couple months. I'm convinced the stock will move sharply up as the supply and demand imbalance abates. I have no way to reasonably estimate what the magnitude of the up leg will be because the last time I thought Axion was fairly valued was Q1-10 when it had a $100 million market cap.

     

    Axion is a far more mature company today than it was in Q1-10 and I don't even want to speculate what the price range will be by summer. When I first got involved in Axion I believed that successful development of the PbC would justify a billion dollar market cap. Today I think my initial estimate was low, but there are still a number of commercialization and market acceptance challenges to overcome.
    10 Feb 2014, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    As I understand it future valuation is largely forward looking (many say 5 years) and involves predicting market share and sales and is likely why Axion once was at 100M. But pessimistic valuation (margin of safety) is often a product of tangible book value and sometimes intellectual property. In the near term I can see why the market has ignored our future potential since the last 5 years didn't involve many Sales of note thus some will assume Sales wont ever come. However, from a margin of safety perspective where do you think Axion stands today? Do you think the current value can rest on the RnD spent as well as Axion's technical know how and patents. It'd be nice if we had some valuable real estate but I'm sure those things are negligible in any valuations being down.
    10 Feb 2014, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    My 2 cents on a guess at AXPW pps once the PIPErs have sold out within a couple months is no huge change. What I mean is a think a multibagger by summer or fall is unlikely absent big news. A 50% rise to ~15 cents is plausible, as is a modest drop or no change. Problem is that as soon as the market knows the PIPErs are gone it could begin to fret over the new financing around the corner.
    Also I think that JP's analogy of the buyers being like a dog that's been whacked daily for years with a newspaper is pretty apt. It's been so long though that I don't think this dog will bid up the shares absent the whack as Axionistas have accumulated their fill. More likely it will take a new crop of dogs coming into the market to bid them up. It's anybody's guess as to a catalyst for enough new buyers to show up to launch the pps.
    10 Feb 2014, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    I believe you would be right if all we had interested in Axion were the current, active Axionistas. However, I believe there are probably 4 to 5 people on the sidelines for every active Axionista. Some of them are former shareholders just waiting for real news that proves Axion is here to stay and prosper.

     

    What we can see: The PIPE is coming to an end. We already have gained about 25% in less than two weeks. ePower is on the road as weather permits. The day cab is ahead of schedule because of the bad weather. We will soon have initial numbers from ePower's tests. Then the real excitement starts as we have mileage numbers from the first trucking customer. The day cab will soon be ready to give two companies at a time the opportunity to field test the technology. We have been stuck on the idea of ten demonstrators by the end of the year. From JP's recent comments, I now believe we will start to have paid orders from the companies who first try the ePower trucks. Instead of building out ten trucks this year, ePower could easily have orders for dozens of trucks after the first few companies try out the demonstrators.

     

    What we can't see: We hope to have news of PowerCube sales before the next CC. We have a new board member who most likely will help with financing and sales. He will certainly lend credibility and create a larger network for Axion. NSC and BMW are still a mystery on timing, yet all official news leads us to believe that both programs are still on track.

     

    I am bullish on the near term just from the end of the PIPE and anticipation of ePower's progress. Any other positive news could create a large gap up in pps with the price already showing strength.
    10 Feb 2014, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    bazoooka> I don't believe for one minute that Axion's market cap has anything to do with book value, business fundamentals or the potential of the PbC. Over the last four years there has been nothing but flawless execution with potential customers and development partners that are unparalleled in the nano-cap world.

     

    Based on my experience the miserable supply and demand dynamic is and has been the only fact that mattered since Q2-10. Everything else is little more than complex rationalization for simple set of undeniable facts nobody wants to accept as the root of the problem.

     

    I published a new Instablog a couple days ago. Forget the price chart for a minute and look at the litany of events that would have sent any other nano-cap stock soaring. I've never seen or even heard of anything like it and a dreadful supply and demand dynamic is the only possible explanation.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lzfsj0
    10 Feb 2014, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2853) | Send Message
     
    jveal> I hope you are right about buyers waiting in the wings but I'm doubtful. I think it has to be new buyers.
    Axion has 2 clocks ticking: 1 clock is to meaningful sales that ameliorate the cash burn hopefully soon. 2 is the clock to the next probably-ugly financing, which is potentially affected by clock 1.
    IMO ePower cannot have a great impact on clock 1 in the next 12 months. If we suppose it can generate a 100 retrofit order book and scale up enough to perform most of those within 12 months, that would bring in sales of 5600 PbCs in 12 months mostly weighted toward the end of that period. Since you don't order batteries until just before you need them, the revenues of most of the 5600 would be months away at minimum. Gross revenues @$350/ea would be about $2 mil. If variable cost ran 66% (50% markup) the $2 mil of sales would generate only $700k of margin, or a little over a month's worth of operations for Axion. So a hefty 100 trucks' worth sold would only push Axion's need for financing out by maybe 1-2 months.
    If AXPW pps jumps up hard in 2014, it will have to be due to a forward looking market as the chances Axion can turn profitable within 1-2 years I think are very low. The jump certainly could happen -- just look at unprofitable PLUG recent pps -- but I don't know who would be bidding up Axion's shares.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    JP,
    I hear you and I realize that stock supply has killed demand in the face of many positive things from Axion.
    I guess, I was hoping/looking for someone to tell me that Axion will never trade below a 15M market cap because our capital equipment and IP is worth more than that at a fire sale auction (or similar type type of logic). Nevertheless, I do feel that we have likely bottomed on price and if it does run a bit before Mid-Summer we may never see these levels again regardless of any future placements. However, for us to get back to 100M+ market cap we will need to attract some forward looking investors and not just catfish types.
    Seems like your suggesting the days of Axion supply being held in weak hands is over and that TG won't get fooled again. I sure hope that is true.
    11 Feb 2014, 12:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Looking at both sides of the argument and without any material change in dynamics, R.A.'s view seems most likely. Would be nice to be wrong, as I have been with every other price prediction with Axion.
    11 Feb 2014, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • futurecartsla
    , contributor
    Comments (587) | Send Message
     
    "I guess, I was hoping/looking for someone to tell me that Axion will never trade below a 15M "

     

    Impossible to predict that, never is an awful long time, or perhaps short time. Besides, the market cap doesn't have to drop for you to lose your money, the shares merely need to be diluted.

     

    "weak hands is over and that TG won't get fooled again"

     

    "There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

     

    -G. Dubya Bush
    11 Feb 2014, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3686) | Send Message
     
    Yeah I realize the dilution issues can kill pps (have seen it already here and many times in mining companies) but would be nice to have some kind of worst case valuation even if share count keeps going up. But as we all know a worst case valuation is a Zero. Hopefully we won't fall into the "fool me twice" deali and be PIPE'd again.
    11 Feb 2014, 02:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    RA, Well thought out. And the stimulus to bring in new dogs is news w/ meat on it. I'm on the same page as you on this story.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, The one cautionary note toward your ePower timing I can't answer is durability as it relates to customers putting their $ toward orders after trail runs. Perhaps John has had some initial discussions w/ some fleet operators concerning this point and how much they might be willing to commit toward rigs with exciting new technology sans long term validation data.

     

    I guess once we see the efficiency improvement we will get a better feel for what risk tolerance might be had from the industry. Hopefully John is getting his feet wet and his head stuffed with data on this sales path.
    11 Feb 2014, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (644) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    I agree that we will not know for sure the response of the trucking companies until the first couple of trials. I'm sure that a positive response will take a little longer than I w