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  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "For sixteen nights and days he raved,
    But on the seventeenth he burst--
    Into the arms of Judas Priest
    Which is where he died of thirst. "
    22 Feb 2014, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    481086, I'd say there are some thirsty folks here.

     

    Here's to a better outcome for us. :>)
    22 Feb 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    http://on.mktw.net/1jn...

     

    Positive sitrep for coal-centric NSC. Unfortunately I think the worst of the winter is now in the rear view mirror, and the utilities that needed coal have gotten it.

     

    Still, it would be nice if Norfolk could find enough pennies in the collection plate to resume work on the 999.
    22 Feb 2014, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    I still think that until the "free money" from grants is less than the projected fuel saving by using electric engines, the 999 and its ilk will stay stalled.
    22 Feb 2014, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (520) | Send Message
     
    Free money is not free. It means you have to wait on government whims and timelines. NS has invested it's own money in the project. The return-on-investment doesn't begin until the first engine in in service.
    Speculation: It really is on track, these guys are running on Railroad time and are not in a hurry.

     

    Even if its a one-off, just use it somewhere and maybe even skip the fanfare.
    22 Feb 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Tripleblack, NSC probably had to divert a few pennies, & time, to take care of the business of a derailment & oil spill.

     

    http://reut.rs/1lLRGxI

     

    Fortunately, NSC was aided by the cold weather & snow in their cleanup effort.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hnHfh1

     

    What I hope is that NSC will soon conduct a really BIG Green NSC/AXPW publicity campaign effort to reintroduce their 999, to counteract the negative Green publicity associated with the derailment/spill, & of course, a corresponding really BIG order of AXPW’s PbC®’s.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    SolarCity (SCTY) reports earnings after the closing bell Monday. Another big name in the No. 1-ranked Energy-Solar industry group, First Solar (FSLR), reports Tuesday.

     

    There appears to be money out there for solar, how about storage??

     

    "Residential and commercial lease funds showed strong growth in 2013, with 22 announced funds totaling $3.34 billion, a 69% increase over 2012," Mercom Capital Group noted in a January roundup of solar funding efforts. "Almost $1 billion was raised in Q4 2013 alone. Vivint Solar, SolarCity, Sunrun, SunPower, and SunEdison were top fundraisers in 2013."

     

    "We are bringing down our capital cost significantly ... it is clear that solar is going to have a long-term position here in competing against traditional cost of retail electricity."

     

    http://bit.ly/1fjedC1
    22 Feb 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Consider the humble pendulum.

     

    It would prefer to rest comfortably in the six o'clock position, but a strong finger can push it to the five, four, three, two or even the one o'clock position if the hand is willing to exert an increasingly strong force for each tick backwards on the clock face.

     

    When the pushing force is released, the pendulum doesn't simply return to the six o'clock position. It overshoots the six o'clock position in an amplitude that's a mirror image of the pressure originally exerted.

     

    Stocks behave the same way, particularly when the fingers that have been pushing the price with steadily increasing force over the last 47 months abruptly leave the trading floor.
    22 Feb 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    From watching TG in that TV interview a couple months ago, it sure seemed he is convinced some big thing are about to happen for Axion this year. If (and that's a big IF) something big does materialize along the lines of what TG is thinking, it wouldn't surprise me to see Axion pps rise by as much as 50% or more in a single day; with the potential to do that for more than a one day.
    22 Feb 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I have never seen or even heard stories of a supply and demand reversal that was anywhere near the magnitude of the one that will develop in Axion over the next few weeks. I believe the stock is currently trading for less than 10% of its objective fair market value – the six o'clock point on the coming price swing. What I can't begin to estimate is the price at 11:24.
    22 Feb 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (724) | Send Message
     
    I think $100 would be nice!
    Some of us would might, maybe, have enough to buy a Tesla!
    22 Feb 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "I have never seen or even heard stories of a supply and demand reversal that was anywhere near the magnitude of the one that will develop in Axion over the next few weeks."

     

    Appears to me your statement assumes a demand driver for Axion shares that is not apparent presently.
    22 Feb 2014, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I started studying supply and demand dynamics 20 years ago after watching the stocks of client companies run like scalded cats for no particular reason.

     

    In a normal trading market that has a good balance between willing sellers and willing buyers, demand drivers are the key to future price movements. When a stock is coming out of a major supply and demand imbalance that's driven the market cap to 10% or 20% of objective fair market value, demand drivers are irrelevant and changes in market behavior are more than enough.

     

    Nobody ever believes me when I explain these dynamics and I don't expect many Axionistas to either. I do hope everyone will remember this discussion.

     

    We had a brief sneak preview in January 2012 when Special Sits and Quercus were out of the game and the 2012 investors hadn't bought yet. The price went from $0.27 to $0.58 in a little over a week and would have kept on climbing if the offering had occurred at a later date.
    22 Feb 2014, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    Early 2012 history reads a bit differently to me. Price rose quickly in January off of end-of-year tax selling in December and announcement on the first or second trading day of the new year of what appeared to be a commercial sale -- a mini-PowerCube for the Washington Navy Yard Net Zero Energy building. The Washington Navy Yard sale followed disclosure of the New Castle PowerCube PJM interconnection by little more than a month.

     

    Share price tanked when the 2012 offering was announced at a very substantial discount to the then prevailing share market price. The offering price was negotiated in November of 2011 as the average closing price over two months, including the year-end tax loss selling prices.
    22 Feb 2014, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    For a person your statue, this is very brave prediction. I am amazed you don't fear risking your reputation. What you call an objective value of axpw is simply subjective, you are assuming the market is rational.

     

    Good luck in your call, I hope you are right.
    22 Feb 2014, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    John> Since your conviction is so high in calling for a huge rally when the PIPE selling ends, are you now buying shares? Seems to me the conviction of the wallet means a lot more than that of the pen.
    22 Feb 2014, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (494) | Send Message
     
    I guess we want to believe you John. Is that good enough? I've been playing around with micro-cap stocks for companies I thought I understood for 10 years or so. I've had a couple of winners and many losers. Two of my losers were RailPower and BCON Power.

     

    Axion seems to be a perfect combination of those two companies. I hope its a good combination rather than a bad one.
    22 Feb 2014, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I take a simplistic view of valuation. The last time I think Axion traded at fair value was Q1-10 when the price settled at $1.15 in the wake of the 2009 placement. The 2009 offering ignored a thin and illiquid public market for Axion's stock and focused on a fundamental evaluation of the PbC by institutional investors that paid $0.57 a share for 7.2 to 8.8 million share blocks that each represented two years of sell-side activity.

     

    At the time Axion's manufacturing process was crude, it had no disclosed potential customers and there had been no substantial third party testing of the PbC. Roughly $25 million of its market cap was attributable to hard assets and the $75 million balance represented an institutional assessment of the fair market value of Axion's technology.

     

    Over the last four years the PbC has advanced from a crude pre-commercial prototype to a high-quality manufactured product with extraordinary performance characteristics. It has survived four years of brutal testing by BMW & NS, justified a joint DOE grant application with GM, justified a second joint DOE grant application with an undisclosed first tier automotive parts company, and given Axion enough stroke to facilitate formation of a working relationship between Cummins and ePower.

     

    In cosmic terms you have at least five moons orbiting what appears to be an asteroid.

     

    I don't know what the PbC technology is worth today, but it's worth a good deal more than $75 million. By the time you factor in the hard assets, the stock is trading for significantly less than 20% of fair value and the only reason it's trading at that level is four years increasingly strong selling pressure pushing the pendulum away from the six o'clock position.

     

    The FINRA graph in the header shows the month to month increase in selling pressure for the last four years. When that pressure abates, as it must when the PIPErs run out of stock, the laws of economic gravity will do the rest and the stock price must swing from the 2 o'clock position to the 10 o'clock position as it seeks a fair equilibrium.

     

    The financial markets are brutal and every small company has to accept its fair share of financing terms that seem dreadful to small stockholders. Sometimes management teams even make mistakes, but they never make the same mistakes twice.
    23 Feb 2014, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    John> I fully agree on Axion's valuation, which is why it is the 2nd largest individual stock investment I have ever made. Reality though is that irrational market caps can persist for a long time and that we shareholders' fate over the next few years is largely tied to how many new equity financings get written based on what market cap. If it's 2 or 3 more rounds based on a cap in the current $20 million ball park we'll get badly diluted. So the impending reality is we need something at least slightly closer to 6 o'clock fairly soon.

     

    The old saw that markets can be irrational for longer than you can stay solvent is applicable to AXPW unfortunately.
    23 Feb 2014, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The only factor that can explain Axion's current market cap is extraordinary sustained selling pressure over a period of four years. Between a legacy overhang of 12 million shares before the 2009 offering and the 175 million shares that were sold in the 2009, 2012 and 2013 offerings, about 380 million shares of trading were needed to absorb the slop if the new investors didn't stand firm.

     

    While there was good reason to believe that the 2009 and some of the 2012 investors would stand firm, none of them did. While I understand the reasons that many of those investors sold, I never would have predicted that all of them would sell.

     

    During the last four years we've had 410 million shares of trading. The only possible conclusion is that the slop has flowed from hands that shouldn't have sold in the first place and into the hands of elephant hunters. With the substantial bulk of the float in strong hands, there aren't enough foolish sellers to sustain a $20 million market cap.

     

    I would be very concerned if I thought Axion was in the market today trying to nail down final terms for its next financing. With a runway that extends into the beginning of Q4 and the painful outcomes of the last two financing rounds, I don't expect a third blood-letting.
    23 Feb 2014, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    RA, I agree witcha 99.44%. In my life's experiences I have a law which states: "Everything takes longer than one thinks it should."

     

    In the case of Axion, I anticipate a twenty bagger rather easily. I also anticipate a double round of equity dilution (rather than plumbers or any bastiches who insist on control) of 200%. So now my twenty bagger is a five bagger.

     

    In keeping with your "longer than . . ." remarks and my own investing law all of these things could easily happen four years down the pike. So now I'm looking at a five bagger in four years. Rather nifty return I'd say. Not NEARLY what I hope for, but very nice on an ultra-conservative projection.

     

    So long as we avoid plumbers, heavy debt, and sharks who want to control our company I think this is a reasonable probability string of events. And my wallet is in lockstep with my song. And past the four years? I am cast-in-concrete dead set against selling the company. Bleep'em says I. If we keep rocking as a going concern, the ten year horizon I see in my spy glass makes me giddy.

     

    Would be nize thow to have some good news in April. :>) Were I CEO and had very good certain news close at hand I would do everything in my power to avoid SEC violations in delaying my announcement to ensure those scum bags do not share in bonus money beyond what they are already assured.

     

    Staying always mindful this is a nano-cap . . . . .
    23 Feb 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    VW> Agree your scenario of 500% net of 2000% is plausible given no sales visibility for a couple more years. However the wild card making me own shares now and not wait to buy after dilution is that if the pps surges prior to financing then your 20 bagger is more or less intact. Dilution won't be that bad at a $50 mm valuation or higher. And terms will be better if a credible path to sales.

     

    With multiple sales irons in the fire I think it's riskier to understand this company's potential yet sit on the sidelines than to own it now and risk dilution. Something like a BMW announcement could move the pps up violently.
    23 Feb 2014, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    Axion is my largest position, by far, by amount INVESTED.

     

    It is presently my sixth largest position, by current value, and thereby hangs a sorry story (hence antsy-ness regarding how the saga will turn out).

     

    Still in the dark theater, hoping for a happy ending, but uncertain where the story will actually go.

     

    I keep buying admission tickets to stay invested in the story and its hoped-for outcome…
    23 Feb 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    For the last four years long-suffering stockholders have lived with a daily deluge of shares from problem pre-2009 stockholders and investors in the 2009, 2012 and 2013 offerings. Except for a very brief period in Q1-12, the sellers have always outnumbered the buyers by a wide margin.

     

    Given that history it's very difficult for anybody to believe we're going to suddenly move from sell-side deluge to sell-side drought in the next couple weeks, but that's exactly what the spreadsheets I've been maintaining for the last four years say must happen.

     

    The problem pre-2009 stockholders have already sold all their shares. The investors in the 2009 offering have already sold all their shares. The investors in the 2012 offering have already sold all their shares. The only remaining source of supply is the PIPErs and their inventory is down to dregs.

     

    Unless you believe there are hordes who have bought stock over the last four years and are willing to sell for nickels and dimes, we're facing a perfect storm where there will be no supply unless the prices rises to a point where Axionistas feel comfortable taking profits.
    23 Feb 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    Oh yeah. Waiting on the dock watching the ship slip over the horizon is miserable. And human pride being what it is we're often tardy in pulling the trigger in error acknowledgement. The difference between a 20 bagger and a five bagger is those initial four bags as we watch the ship start to move but don't believe it.

     

    Hence I remain an owner. :>)
    23 Feb 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    IMO, the key to investment in AXPW is not about calculating or projecting your return. It is a fallacy at best. Stipulating certainty in a very uncertain situation is very risky habit and unknowable to us (humans). It is rather making sure the downside will have no emotional impact on your psyche, the upside will take care of itself.

     

    23 Feb 2014, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    IMO and with all due respect, you are miscalculating. You are assuming demand/supply balance or, in other words, human psyche is physics where the laws of motion won't change till eternity.

     

    Newton himself after his bad tulip trade said, I can calculate how the stars move but can't calculate human psyche.
    23 Feb 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line is this: If there were a fire sale bankruptcy auction of the whole company today, it would fetch more than 0.10 a share because I suspect few Axionistas would accept less than that. Since there is (near)-zero probability of bankruptcy, and a very high probability of news that would very quickly propel the fire-sale value of the company above $200 million, this may very well go down as a textbook example of how to do value investing.
    23 Feb 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Barood> In the stock market supply and demand always balance and the price moves up or down to ensure that result.

     

    For the last four years 85% to 90% of all sell side pressure came from problematic pre-2009 stockholders and investors in the 2009, 2012 and 2013 offerings. The other 10% to 15% came from investors like Mayascribe who bought in the open market and ultimately sold. The numbers don't balance any other way.

     

    I don't predict the human psyche but without a credible reason to believe there are literal hordes of Axionistas waiting on the sidelines for a chance to sell for $.15 or $.20, we're facing a perfect storm of high demand with little or no supply.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Patrick perhaps. But one also needs to realize that an entrenched management with control can cause fertile ground to yield little sustenance for an extended period of time. This while using the only currency they have available to keep the company under their control. Witness companies like Newscorp and Cablevision Systems as examples. Two media companies that have entrenched family control via super voting shares that have done little else but step on their own feet for more than some time now.

     

    Sales or partnerships, for me, is now the only sign that this will not happen here as well. We have some great ground, plenty of water,sun and seed but thus far I don't see much green. The company store is getting damn expensive and I don't consider this a philanthropic endeavor.

     

    John is thinking we have a period of time here to see some level of rebound in the stock price. I'm in agreement with the window of opportunity but for me it's looking for the sign to finding what every manufacturer needs and that's a market that needs their wares. Sans that we better figure out how to digest fertile ground this fall because longs are going to have tons of dirt to wallow in if we don't get some lovin soon.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I hope you are right and I like your tenacity on this call.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If the numbers were softer I'd be far less adamant. In early February I published my PIPE worksheet for anybody to review and criticize.

     

    http://bit.ly/1bkFygB

     

    My numbers aren't flawless, but they present the only scenario that plausibly ties to the numbers in regulatory filings from Axion and the big funds that bought stock in its other offerings. The amazing part to me is the strength of the retail base after four years of stock chart from hell.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    "and the price moves up or down to ensure that result"

     

    This is evident even intra-day. Until recently we had a clockwork-like predictability of "late-day weakness" as buyers stepped lower with the bids because they could see the "suppliers" were willing to hit ever-lower bids in an effort to rid themselves of shares.

     

    Recently it is not as pronounced, or as predictable. Sometimes it comes earlier in the day, sometimes there's little evidence of it.

     

    Overall though, it continues to be in evidence inter-day as the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages for buy:sell show:
    2/21 34.44%, 35.88%, 33.66% and 33.07%.

     

    For comparison:
    1/10 38.74%, 33.78%, 32.56% and 31.38%.

     

    1/10 was the recent peak for the 10-day average. You can see that re-balancing taking place as the 10-day average deteriorated and on 2/21 the longer periods are with ~2 percentage points of where they were 1/10.

     

    The 10-day average has been consistently deteriorating recently and will drag the other periods along if the PIPErs don't stick to what's suggested by your work - that they will be out of shares shortly.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2014, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (1947) | Send Message
     
    hmmm...I don't think Newscorp or Cablevision are comparable to AXPW.
    23 Feb 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Outside of the point I was trying to make they aren't.

     

    BTW, You can have all the stock you want right now for under ten cents/share while Axion still has the deficiency of being a going concern.
    23 Feb 2014, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "My numbers aren't flawless, but they present the only scenario that plausibly ties to the numbers in regulatory filings from Axion ...."

     

    A very plausible alternative to accelerated conversions by PIPErs beyond those disclosed to date in SEC filings (as assumed in your spreadsheet) was laid out shortly after you posted your spreadsheet.
    23 Feb 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I've read your speculations but don't see how they could possibly result in more accurate numbers that tie to Axion's SEC reports.

     

    Instead of speculating plug your ideas into a copy of the spreadsheet and see for yourself. Then, if you're satisfied, share your modified spreadsheet with the rest of us.

     

    If you want to argue that my numbers are wrong, the burden is on you to prove it.

     

    Since I assume you didn't bother to review the numbers when I originally posted a link, here it is again:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bkFygB

     

    Lawyers who refuse to present a case based on credible competent evidence rarely win.
    23 Feb 2014, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    i dunno. i hate the price action but i like the tech. i'm willing to see if others come to a good idea (already) or not. on nanocaps that's the only way i can invest (ideas).
    23 Feb 2014, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    Fact, Petersen, is that my spreadsheet assumptions are no more, and no less, speculative than your own.

     

    FACT. I have argued that your spreadsheet scenario is not the ONLY scenario that reconciles outstanding share counts reported in Axion SEC filings, NOT that your numbers are wrong. To claim otherwise is to misrepresent my remarks.

     

    FACT. I'm under no obligation (or burden) to prove a damn thing to you or to accept your condescending opinion that the only "responsible" thing for anyone to do is play your scenario game and improve on it.

     

    FACT. You and other APC readers have been advised by me that I believe nothing you say unless, or until, verified independently. My spreadsheet scenario did not confirm yours and APCers were so advised to accept or reject as they chose.

     

    FACT. My interest lies in objective, unbiased assessment in remaining potential PIPE shares issues and effect on AXPW share price. Your spreadsheet scenario is unverifiable until such time Axion discloses additional information on post-January 2014 share issues or shares outstanding and the claim "My numbers aren't flawless, but they present the only scenario that plausibly ties to the numbers in regulatory filings from Axion ...." is invalid. So long as you make that claim without verification, expect to hear from me about the matter.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    You never offered a spreadsheet scenario!

     

    Show us your numbers so we can see how they fit the undisputed facts.

     

    All you did was write a couple paragraphs describing insignificant stock issuances to directors and legal impossibilities like paying undisclosed commissions in unregistered stock that can't account for the difference.

     

    Until you present your version of the facts nobody can evaluate your views.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "All you did was write a couple paragraphs describing insignificant stock issuances to directors and legal impossibilities like paying undisclosed commissions in unregistered stock that can't account for the difference."

     

    Description of my spreadsheet scenario included stock issuances through disclosed accelerated conversions, issuances to directors in lieu of cash payment for services, and issuances in lieu of cash for payment of DISCLOSED commissions payable on each note conversion plus counting as already issued those shares due PIPErs as the March pre-installment.

     

    Issuing unregistered stock for undisclosed commissions is your construction, not mine.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The directors got a couple hundred thousand shares. It's not even a rounding error.

     

    Commissions can only be paid in stock if the original deal documents permit such arrangement and the terms are fully and fairly disclosed in the relevant SEC filings. We know that didn't happen.

     

    If commissions could be paid with stock, that would require the registration of the compensation shares and the identification of the selling agent as a selling stockholder. We know that didn't happen either.

     

    Last but not least, issuing discounted shares for brokers commissions would trigger the full ratchet anti dilution provisions of the deal warrants and trigger a Form 8-K filing. Once again, we know that didn't happen.

     

    In other words your theory is preposterous. You'd know that if you took the time to run the numbers, but I guess it's easier to fabricate fairy tales than demonstrate their plausibility with something more than hand waving.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4052) | Send Message
     
    "It is rather making sure the downside will have no emotional impact on your psyche, the upside will take care of itself."
    @ Zenmeister Barood: When the upside comes and you take a five-bagger only to watch a 20-bagger, that'll hurt. No pain, no gain.
    Of course we all die, so you have a point, too.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    I've decided to temper my temptations to sell on the upside by buying extra shares now to sell along the way.
    23 Feb 2014, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "In other words your theory is preposterous."

     

    Whatever, Petersen. As said before, I do not believe a thing you say without verification and most definitely for cause.

     

    Come 1st week of March, trading activity will tend to support your scenario -- or not.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    Ah Edmund, I've discovered for myself that missed upside is much less painful than realized downside of even much less magnitude.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2014, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I agree. The old saw states that its possible to boil a frog slowly and he will sit in the water until its too late!

     

    Near term, March is stacking up to be one of "those months" for Axion, where we either see loads of frogs jumping into the cooling water in anticipation of a fun Spring, or we could instead end up staring at a looming round of funding about to turn the heat up again.

     

    Keep a frog-eye on the thermometer, guys...
    24 Feb 2014, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    Added more shares today, putting money where my mouth is. It would seem to be that the danger of a 9c breach is over, since the metric used is a 20 day VWMA. March 1 is soon upon us. Also the PIPErs are only doing late day dumps and seem to be focused on unloading shares, not crushing the price. I'm going out on a limb to say that 9c is probably a very good price now.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: the lowest 20 VWAPs within a 40-day window. That's a big difference.

     

    Worse, if the day before "The Day" has a lower VWAP, that number is used.

     

    So we could trade $1 WVAP until the last day, trade $0.10 that day and the 80% would be applied to the $0.10.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2014, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. Whelp, that explains this end of month weakness.

     

    It might behoove us to defend the 9c line until after Friday.
    24 Feb 2014, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    The Nanophosphate® Advantage

     

    Today, A123 Energy Solutions is proud to feature industry leading Nanophosphate® lithium ion battery technology. Developed by A123 Systems, Nanophosphate delivers high power and energy density combined with excellent safety, performance and cycle life.

     

    Axion has a score in the mid 90% range, A123 has a 90% rating.

     

    "Grid Storage Solution Architecture
    A123’s GSS offers a flexible, modular architecture that consists of three key components: the Grid Battery System (GBS), AEROSTM Energy Control System and Power Conversion System, which are fully integrated and grid-ready. The GSS delivers a system-level AC-AC roundtrip efficiency rating of 90 percent*."

     

    A123 went bankrupt, got bought by the Chineese and they still seem to be able to get a few PO orders, why can't Axion?

     

    "With more than 100 megawatts shipped to date, A123 Energy Solutions is the world’s leading supplier of advanced battery systems for grid energy storage. Our global utility and independent power producer customers include AES Energy Storage, Sempra Generation, Southern California Edison, Dongfang Electric Corp., Vestas, Maui Electric and Northern Powergrid, among others. These and other customers are deploying A123’s GSS for a number of applications, including frequency regulation, spinning reserve, renewable integration and substation storage."

     

    http://bit.ly/1bxiZLe

     

    http://bit.ly/1bxiXD5
    22 Feb 2014, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if this was posted or not. I don't recall seeing it.

     

    Anyway, Attached is the "stick built" (looks like 2"x2" tubular steel) battery racking structure built for the Norfolk Southern yard loco. As you can see from the attached DropBox Inc. link they brought in a welding expert to advise them how to weld up the frame. For obvious reasons given the dynamic loading based on yard usage.

     

    Out of interest I went to the joint NSC/Axion presentation on the program update to see the cutaway view of the battery loco and the battery storage matrix is 6 wide by 6 high. Same as the Drop Box photo except there is no way to tell if the Drop Box frame is bigger as the entire frame is not seen end to end. BTW, the blog timing for the photo shown at the top of the page is posted on Wed, Jun 26, 2013 @ 02:44 PM.

     

    Oh, I also looked at the NS simulator box to see if this frame might have found a home there. When I blew up the simulator photo from the NSC/Axion joint update the frame is clearly of a different construction method.

     

    http://bit.ly/MOtvTe;http://bit.ly/MOtvTi
    22 Feb 2014, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    BTW, The number of slots in the frame with the number of batteries/slot shown in the joint NSC/Axion update do work out to the number of batteries ordered by NSC for the application. 2 slides/slot x 6 batteries/slide x 6 high x 6 wide x 2 sides of the loco = 864 batteries.
    22 Feb 2014, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    :-) Wonder if that '2"x2" tublar steel' is perforated in chosen locations to maximize air circulation or carries a refrigerant to absorb heat and move it outside the battery housing.
    22 Feb 2014, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Well the possibility for air flow where needed for thermal management is certainly better than the first implementation of NS 999 This picture is a good reminder of the level of engineering that went into the first NS 999 execution attempt. Amateur fits as a descriptor.

     

    http://bit.ly/INYJCX
    23 Feb 2014, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, it was hinted somewhere - or maybe just the voices in my head again - that airflow and the racking system were the cause of the delay: maybe just a factoid. Hopefully the welding Maharishi got the problems sorted and NS is testing as I type - and with a big smile on their faces and all NS upper-level managers sporting new Axion tats.
    23 Feb 2014, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Just calculated that 840 batteries at 40lbs each (don´t know about accuracy of 840 and 40lbs) is 33,600 lbs. That would require some good support especially considering movement and vibration.
    23 Feb 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    I guess the weight issue is the reason they decided against using PVC to support the PbC! ;-))
    23 Feb 2014, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Metro, I thought the HT case size was more in the 70 lb range/unit. Anyway, I could well be off and they could be using larger X x Y tubular steel as well.

     

    For me the importance of the picture is the timing of when the frame was completed and the fact that the frame supports the program update presentation with the sizing of the slots being supportive of PbC utilization. Not Corvus. The timing tells me there well could be a NS 999 rev. B rolling around, not assured, and a better level of commitment to PbC than I had before the picture, also not a guarantee for a LTR.

     

    In the end I felt just a little warmer about NS. Damn they are slower than molasses in January!
    23 Feb 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The old Rosewater spec sheet on the PowerCube said that 30HT's like NS is using weigh 73 pounds each. So the battery weight in the NS 999 will be closer to 61,000 pounds.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's always fun to remember the triumphant roll out of the NS 999 in September 2009

     

    http://bit.ly/rI7uod

     

    that turned into a major OOPS and a PR catastrophe within a couple weeks.

     

    Since people and companies rarely make the same mistake twice, I can see a world of good reasons to triple check everything, do all the work under layers of soundproof canvas and do incognito testing of the next version.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4052) | Send Message
     
    I think it is unlikely to be rolled out amidst any fanfare at all. It will be put to work until they know it works. The important news I am looking for at this point is a second locomotive-sized order.
    23 Feb 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the good records keeping regarding the Rosewater battery weight data.

     

    Also very much in agreement concerning NSC not wanting to look like they did again as a result of the first NS 999 roll out. You don't have to be an engineer to look at some of the design details and the net result of their efforts to realize that the first NS 999 program was just a horrible contrast to a tier 1 RR that is highly lauded for it's technology prowess. It's just so amateur as to be embarrassing as heck. I don't even want to think about having been a fly on the wall during the damage control meeting at of the end of that exercise.
    23 Feb 2014, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    Not just Axion frustration re: "Tier 1 auto manufacturers"…

     

    Here's a snippet from Maxwell's CC last week --

     

    Analyst:
    I know that this is a little bit tricky to try to dance around. But it sounds like you were pretty emphatic about the expectation that there will be multiple design wins in auto coming this year [ultracapacitors], any additional color insights you can give there regarding timing, potential size, I mean these major contracts that you’re working on similar to the size that you’ve already got in the bag with Peugot or any additional color you can give would be helpful?

     

    John Warwick (Maxwell):
    The only other color I can give at this time is they are with some of the top Tier-1 auto manufacturers across the globe.
    23 Feb 2014, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    From the Price Distortion Department I offer the following link:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nYhDJy

     

    Sometimes distortion seen at the micro level obscures what will actually happen in a longer time horizon.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Acting like a linking fool this morning.

     

    This one entitled: Waiting on DRich to Smile.

     

    http://bit.ly/1h1g6SF
    23 Feb 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3994) | Send Message
     
    Hi VW,
    Thanks for the link. I remember when I got that kind of look from my mother as a kid, uh oh. Now when I get that look from Ms. SD, I go clean the garage. ;-)
    23 Feb 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... While the NS999 shell sits out in the snow I've not a lot to smile about. I have reason to think that sometime in May or June I'll perk up but until then I'll remain bummed out.
    23 Feb 2014, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    DRich, does this mean you've saved your eagle avatar?
    23 Feb 2014, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Oh, yes. I've not fully given up on seeing a TEMLO hit the rail like others around here have. As a switcher I'm more & more convinced that it will not be a commercial product but I really don't care about that since my favorite configuration is a "Goat" similar to ePower's truck. I really just want to know the damn thing works. Heat is the problem. Heat has always been the problem and it warms my heart to find Corvus in the same boat but lower in the water. Rebuilds for genset switching locos begins in 2018 ... so, who knows.
    23 Feb 2014, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    This is a statement you posted back in Aug. if TG would have come through maybe your turning point would have been realized but as history has shown the best laid plans or is that hopes and wishes??

     

    "John PetersenComments (23808)
    I don't see the PIPErs as long term investors and I think they follow a rigid discipline of getting their principal back every month come hell or high water. I think they're a bit more opportunistic when it comes to selling their yield shares and are likely to get very opportunistic if the spread between their purchase price and the market price widens.

     

    I'm convinced the number of investors watching from the sidelines is a decent sized multiple of the 5,000 that have already bought. As the price starts to move off a bottom that's been tested with a rebound, I think buy side activity may increase and given the lower selling profile of the PIPErs over the last month, any new buying can start an upward ramp that will push the PIPErs yield sky high.

     

    It's still early, but the FINRA data seems to be showing the same patterns we saw with the big uglies, we've had a double bottom on the price and Granville is creating specific time-frame expectations for the first time. Now I just have to hope that the turn I've been expecting for a very long time is finally at hand.
    15 Aug, 08:09 PM"
    23 Feb 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I grossly underestimated the PIPErs' aggressiveness in August and the only thing I can say in my defense is that we didn't much experience at the time. It was clear the PIPErs wanted to be first in line at the pay window, as evidenced by their earlier sales that drove the price down to levels where they were the only likely sellers.

     

    I expected the PIPErs to get opportunistic once they had a couple months of bargain basement pricing locked in. Instead, they fought like a pack of dogs over every bid that came along and the bottom feeders contributed in their own way by dangling offers just a little bit lower.

     

    Now that I've seen the numbers, I don't think there's anything management could have done to turn the tide against this crushing quarterly volume ramp:

     

    Q4-12 – 20,442,000

     

    Q1-13 – 16,872,400
    Q2-13 – 26,781,300
    Q3-13 – 48,962,400
    Q4-13 – 83,257,500

     

    Q1-14 – 45,027,800

     

    To help put things in perspective, its useful to remember that total trading volume in 2012 was 86,443,500 shares. No stock can withstand that kind of sell-side pressure, even if management walks on water.
    23 Feb 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, I think I get your point. I think JP is a tad too optimistic sometimes, particularly as it relates to timing. Hence he and I sometimes disagree over timing. I've suspected since the plumbers showed up with their wrenches that we would go from leaky to gushing because of them and we would not be able to fix our own leaks until those bastiches left the building.

     

    That said, I was hopelessly optimistic that NSC would activate their AFE to buy more batteries before November first. So my timing skills tend to suck and casting asparagus at others in that regard is best left undone by me.

     

    The resultant theory is that TG's skill, JP's skill, and my skill at prognostication in the timing department are pathetic. That does not mean however that any or all of us are wrong.
    23 Feb 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I gotta get me a clearer crystal ball.

     

    On the other hand, my ability to plug historical data points into a spreadsheet and figure out who did what and when they did it is solid. For now the only thing I'm looking at are the spreadsheets because numbers do not lie and they can't be mis-interpreted.
    23 Feb 2014, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "...the only thing I'm looking at are the spreadsheets because numbers do not lie and they can't be mis-interpreted. "

     

    Is that a fact.
    23 Feb 2014, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    VW, Timing is generally a part of most processes. Examples being sports, cooking and manufacturing etc. Oh, and err, investing. Get everything perfect except the timing and the outcome can be far from what was hoped for. Too far off the mark and you get nothing.

     

    We are far from too far off the mark to yield nothing but as we've seen from the exit of some Axionista's they left fearing an empty brown bag and a batting average of 1000 - 999.

     

    I remain convinced of the technology, more than ever, but the bartender is adding mixer to my expected salute to commercial success not shots.
    23 Feb 2014, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    Valley,

     

    I am not certain that you did get my point as sometimes I am not very capable of presenting the data perfectly to make my point!

     

    With that said, I was in no way meaning to cast asparagus but instead attempting to make a point that if TG would have been able to come through with his expected significant orders as predicted then JP's hopes for the turning point might have had a chance to make a showing. Since TG did not deliver then JP's hopes for the turning point had no chance to succeed with the PIPERs in full control and on the dump. Too much over supply, no demand!

     

    We are all hoping for that turning point which has yet to arrive. With the current exiting of the PIPER's and the shifting of the supply/demand dynamics that JP is forcasting, the turning point would be much more impressive if TG would come through now with those long awaited significant orders.

     

    I am attempting to imagine the impact on the stock price if those significant orders were announced back in August versus 6 months later with the PIPERs nearing the end of their dumping and control.
    23 Feb 2014, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    RB

     

    With due respect "no demand" is inaccurate.

     

    The PIPRs have sold a massive number of sharees with a small number to go.

     

    There is a demand albeit at low price because they were/are in a hurry to get their money back for the next deal.

     

    The point remains that someone purchased allthose scores of millions of shares. You can be very certain that its not just the Axionistas who are involved. There is no reason to believe that buying intrest will dry up with the drop in supply.

     

    Regarding price I would expect without news the price will remain about $0.10 until the PIPRs are gone. After that I would expect a spike up in price as those who have not filled their trading positions continue to accumulate despite diminished supply.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    AiB,

     

    I definitely stand corrected. It is very true that the absorbtion of shares at these low prices has been amazing. In fact, I absorbed quite a few of them too!

     

    My curiosity is more like what will cause the absorbers of cheap stock to then become buyers. Who will run the stock to much higher levels which will satisfy the needs of those currently invested in this story? I agree that JP's scenario is a positive one and should have a big impact. I also believe that TG needs to come through with some "stuff" in order to cause the additional demand the stock will need to lift the PPS to levels where the stock is priced ahead of the story not behind as it has been throughout the past many years!

     

    I own other company stocks that have only 40 million shares outstanding or less with big potential and revenues growing but buying demand in the stock for whatever reasons continues to be weak.

     

    I just believe that if TG would/could give us what we need to alleviate the next funding fears then I believe the buying demand would increase faster and have more power on the stock price than the PIPERs currently have and probably did have 6 months ago!

     

    In the long term good news will overpower the bad but it must be big and it must keep flowing!
    23 Feb 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Consider the pendulum.

     

    If there's no physical obstruction you can push it all the way to 12:05 if you're strong enough. Once you let go, however, it swings down rapidly passes 6 o'clock at maximum speed and doesn't stop till it hits 11:55.

     

    Many only consider Concentrator participants when they use the term Axionistas. I include the thousands of individual investors who have bought stock over the last four years and put the shares away in their sock drawers.

     

    The more important market segment isn't holders who climbed a wall of worry filled their target positions despite a scary market. It's the ones who've been waiting patiently on the sidelines, getting ready to enter the game at the first sign the price hemorrhaging has abated.

     

    We hear from one or two every day. When the price starts to turn we'll hear from many more because they outnumber the Axionistas by a factor of five to one.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    23 Feb 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, thanks for the clarification.

     

    These are dreadful times for Axionistas. T, G is in fact horrible beyond the pale in timing and that can be seen as incompetence. Horrible in the crystal ball department he is, but he has my patient tolerance on the six month business. Meanwhile we are (forgive, please) bitch slapped around for believing the crystal ball he holds.

     

    We in fact don't know when sales will be announced, but we do in fact know when the plumbers will run out of putty. Soon, Grasshopper, soon. And though I'm not of JP's optimism, I wager he's right in direction. And I'll sell not one share while we wait for JP to be right in fact.

     

    Plus, this port is really really good on a Sunday evening. (!) That and my dust collection system in the shop is FINALLY complete. My optimism is off the chain. :>)
    23 Feb 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    "It's the ones who've been waiting patiently on the sidelines, getting ready to enter the game at the first sign the price hemorrhaging has abated."

     

    I believe ... however, what will be "first sign the price hemorrhaging has abated"?
    Until the specter of "the next financing round" is gone, it will be hard to convince people the hemorrhaging has stopped.
    23 Feb 2014, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Consider the pendulum.

     

    Once the pressure that's artificially depressed the stock price for four agonizing years abates the laws of economic gravity must take precedence over irrational fear.
    23 Feb 2014, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    VW don't worry, JP's timing and predictions have been off for over 4 years. He's touted these "inflection points" and "when the big uglies are gone, the stock will soar to the moon" and now "when the PIPER's are gone".....

     

    Wonder how many fell for this, over 100 million shares worth. Look at the charts, they tell the story.
    23 Feb 2014, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I made several incorrect assumptions about wether certain stockholders would remain in place. When the stockholders didn't behave as I expected them to, my forecasts proved wrong.

     

    Now I'm not giving anybody the benefit of the doubt and I've assumed that every 2009 investor, 2012 investor and 2013 PIPEr who can sell will do so. Even with worst case assumptions the perfect storm is almost here.

     

    I'll wave when the train leaves you standing on the platform.
    23 Feb 2014, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    LT,

     

    I'm really not sure why you hang around here tossing your unwelcomed grenades such as this, filled with bitterness and contempt for the rest of us here, evidently idiots in your opinion. Why bother with us?
    23 Feb 2014, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • nakedjaybird
    , contributor
    Comments (2851) | Send Message
     
    Yoh John - did you pile in new and I missed the announcement, or are you waving with your holdings of ole?

     

    One thing about the selling pressure analogies, it normally only takes one to stop a fight between two folks; one just stops pushing.

     

    And as you say, the supply pressure is about over for Axion. I hope you are as right here as you have to date been wrong about Tesla. The fact is, I believe you are right about Tesla. And also Axion, which I really care about.

     

    Regarding Tesla, it's like a signed and sealed deal with an effective date that has not yet arrived.
    23 Feb 2014, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1303) | Send Message
     
    Given that your hypothetical pendulum was dropped at about $0.27, that is about the best we can hope for on an upswing, absent any sales. However, the pendulum also is laden with resistance in the form of profit taking that will occur as holders of the tens of millions of shares purchased below 0.10 will be foolish not to take some profits when the price does start to go up. Absent any sales or credible rumors of sales, I don't see how this could possibly get past about 0.20 based solely on a decreased rate of supply. Your pendulum will also be picking up additional weight on the upswing as we have only a short time before the need to raise capital in Q4.
    24 Feb 2014, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1303) | Send Message
     
    Rugged, speak for yourself. I, for one, appreciated LT's counterpoints to what is often irrational optimism regarding this stock.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I suppose the next month or so will prove one of us right NGS. I have time.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1303) | Send Message
     
    Well, a month and a year has gone by and, indeed, one of us has been proven right.
    25 Mar 2015, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    No water walked on by this management - at least not for now
    23 Feb 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In late 2009 Axion's manufacturing process was crude, it had no disclosed potential customers and there had been no substantial third party testing of the PbC.

     

    Over the last four years the PbC has advanced from a pre-commercial prototype to a high-quality manufactured product with extraordinary performance. It has survived four years of brutal testing by BMW & NS, justified a joint DOE grant application with GM, justified a second joint DOE grant application with an undisclosed first tier automotive parts company, and given Axion enough stroke to facilitate formation of a working relationship between Cummins and ePower.

     

    In cosmic terms you have at least five moons orbiting what appears to be an asteroid.

     

    Management has a lousy crystal ball they obviously don't have the brute strength required to force an industry giant sign a huge check, but any fair appraisal of the job management has done over the last four years would use words like "superb" and "extraordinary" instead of "poor" and "questionable."
    23 Feb 2014, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (3994) | Send Message
     
    Hi dlmca,
    From what I hear of the weather back East, it sounds like most everybody is walking on (frozen) water.;-)
    24 Feb 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    02/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 159, MinTrSz: 29, MaxTrSz: 125000, Vol: 3243908, AvTrSz: 20402
    Min. Pr: 0.0910, Max Pr: 0.0970, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0940
    # Buys, Shares: 77 1625042, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0947
    # Sells, Shares: 76 1551396, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0932
    # Unkn, Shares: 6 67470, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0946
    Buy:Sell 1.05:1 (50.10% "buys"), DlyShts 719671 (22.19%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 46.39%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0772 vs. $0.0775, $0.0777, $0.0778, $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0779 and $0.0779 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0752 vs. $0.0763, $0.0785, $0.0799, $0.0816, $0.0846, $0.0836 $0.0881, $0.0902 and $0.0922 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, -2.41%, -1.50%, 85.93% and 105.15% respectively. Price spread today was 6.59% vs. 9.23%, 8.42%, 3.59%, 6.40%, 9.52%, 3.49%, 16.06%, 17.07% and 9.90% on prior days.

     

    Larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 50 of the 159 trades, 31.45% of larger trades. These totaled 2,363,030, 72.85% of days volume, and traded at a VWAP $0.0940. 19 of these trades ...

     

    On the traditional TA front, the lower highs continued today, making two consecutive lower highs, and the string of lower lows got broken with a low that just matched yesterday's. The close yesterday of $0.0926 was just above my medium-term descending support, and today the low appear to be right on it at $0.091, and the close of $0.0915 just above it, so it did offer support two days at least.

     

    Stochastic, which was flat in oversold, moved lower again, ... Williams %R was also flat in oversold and also moved lower. RSI continues to weaken, down to ~37 from ~38, just above oversold of 30. MFI, which was hesitant about making a strong trend as it remained generally flat, finally has two consecutive down days. Momentum continues to accelerate its down move, down at 76.31 from the two prior 0.9078 and 0.965 readings. ADX and related weakening continues. MACD and it's histogram are negative and accelerating downward, continuing the move seen yesterday.

     

    Five days we've traded completely below my longer-term descending resistance and continue to depart from it to the downside at an increasing rate.

     

    The chance for continued support by my medium-term support, of which I said yesterday “Friday's behavior will be important and give us a sign as to if we may get support, or not, at this level”, is uncertain. Well, it gave us support, but the combination of the oscillators' stances and the high volume leave me doubtful that it can do it another day or two. The volume was high enough today, third highest since I started tracking this stuff in February of 2012, that maybe it was the “volume spike” signaling end of trend.

     

    I don't know, all things considered, if we can read it that way. We know the PIPErs have caused some big volume with no change in sentiment or any catalysts AFAIK. So I would not suggest this is an end of trend, just out of caution.

     

    The next potential support I see is my long-term descending support, currently ~$0.081, very near the most recent new all-time low.

     

    In the non-traditional TA area, today's buy percentage of 50.1%, up from yesterday's 19.7%, is the highest since 1/31's and 2/3's 53.9% and 55.6%. This a common (side-?) effect of falling price though and is not much reason for hope. VWAP went from $0.0946 on 1/31 to a high of $0.1163 on 2/5 and started down from there. A four-day rise followed by a continuous trend lower is not exactly awe inspiring. ...

     

    Regardless, I still think, for reasons mentioned above, my descending support won't hold and we'll sink on down into at least the $0.08xx area again.

     

    The usual trading breakdowns, more thoughts in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2014, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    John, I do like the moons orbiting the asteroid (must be a very dense one), but in late 2009 it is also true that they did have this:

     

    http://bit.ly/1bAkFnd

     

    http://bit.ly/1k0aurS

     

    which, taken at face value, sure looked like a pretty firm way forward. I have to think that the idea of an enduring Axion-Exide partnership, though vacuous as it later proved to be, had to have something to do with the healthier market cap we enjoyed then...
    23 Feb 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    >48, I believe 2009 was also the year Ed Buiel decided to sell out his stake in Axion because he didn't believe the company was aggressively pursuing sales opportunities he felt were ripe for the taking.

     

    Also since 2009, there's been a substantial record of TG's inability to execute according to his own metrics, leading many to question his competence. I think Amouna's latest post summed that up quite succinctly. --- http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    That said, I accept JP's thesis we're at a major threshold. At a minimum, there should be a greater stability in the pps, and a likelihood it will increase. But I don't think it will be much unless or until the news worthy events begin to show up.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    By late 2009 the writing on the wall was getting clearer with each passing day – Exide had no intention of letting Axion participate in the $34.3 million grant that the DOE awarded to "Exide Technologies with Axion Power International" in August 2009.

     

    If you look at the Market Cap graph you'll see that it was $45.4 million in January 2009 and $51.3 million just before the 2009 financing was announced. The April announcement of an Exide partnership caused a nice spike and the August announcement of the DOE grant caused a second one, but by the end of the year Exide's continuing influence on Axion's stock price was negligible.
    23 Feb 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    OT, and hopefully I am not overreaching with this comment, but I think most here are probably unaware of ePower's private stock placement currently underway. It may have a ticking clock on its terms ($1.00/share) dependent on OTR testing results that will start flowing in the weeks to come.

     

    I thiink JP as ePower CFO and gentleman does not mention the offering on SA out of respect for his readers and avoidance of any potential conflict of interest, so likely few even know. I have subscribed (technically I just bought shares off a shareholder) but I have no relationship with ePower or Mr. Petersen or conflict of interest other than that I am a common shareholder (soon to be, no certificates yet). Anybody wishing information on ePower common stock please PM me and I can steer you to the appropriate sources.
    23 Feb 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1303) | Send Message
     
    RA, from what I read, that offering is only available to "accredited investors" which most of us here are not.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    depends on the definition of 'accredited' -- and it was a process started by VW last year. I was going to join in but a sudden and unfortunate shift in personal circumstances have introduced a delay.

     

    I have the epower info that John sends out but I would not want to provide it to others until/unless John gives his blessing (here, or by pm - he knows how to find me).
    24 Feb 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1303) | Send Message
     
    There is a clear definition for Accredited Investor. Just go to the ePower web page and read it there.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    ngs> I am not accredited. Not even close. There's a workaround as shares owned by a major holder are available for repurchase through the conduit of his exercising convertible notes and then separately exercising his warrants with the proceeds. It's a wash for him cash and share wise but does allow non accredited investors to buy privately and the money still flows to ePower's coffers via the warrants' exercise.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL

     

    Interesting to think I might pick up some lots in the $0.08 area.

     

    In some ways I like the idea given US/Canada dollar exchange - but in many other ways (how many shares do I have) guess I prefer not to see that price

     

    Talk about a mispriced stock...AXPW takes the cake
    23 Feb 2014, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: Just keep in mind that all TA, whether traditional or my experimental stuff, is based on "backward looking" metrics.

     

    What's forward looking is "the analyst's" assessment of what they mean and certainly can be off - witness how long it took for the break down to come when I was feeling strongly that history would repeat and we'd drop below that 50-day SMA and set a new low.

     

    Being way early like that may not be much better than just being flat wrong, as I could certainly be here even without a catalyst.

     

    When John made the assertion that numbers can't be misinterpreted, I almost raised my hand as living proof that wasn't so! ;-))

     

    I can't figure why I'm so willing to risk my ego by being up front with this stuff - maybe because long ago I sort of pushed it into the background as being a counter-productive influence.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2014, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Some numbers offer fertile ground for misinterpretation, particularly when the goal is to read TA tea leaves for a wildly unbalanced market. Others, like the number of shares outstanding on a particular date involve a good deal less interpretive risk.
    23 Feb 2014, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    I think that even with no other announcements, successful ePower trials, and a purchase, can only boost Axion's share price.

     

    It is a clear product endorsement that everyone can understand.
    23 Feb 2014, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Alternative energy storage: http://bit.ly/1pfevg3
    23 Feb 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    Tahoe: Now that's interesting. What's old is new again!

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    There is a very good reason ammonia will never be an industrial energy source. It is not just stinky. It kills you in a nasty way:

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1hfyaIq

     

    http://reut.rs/1hfy8QD

     

    http://bit.ly/1hfyaIs

     

    Its safety record stinks as bad as it does:
    http://bit.ly/1bZKKwD
    23 Feb 2014, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin, Yes, I'm glad that for some time now we don't have to make copies of scaled master drawings of velum and mylar. I started out spending too much time in front of engineering copy machines making document packages to send to the customer at various times during program phases. Small companies didn't have "office assistants" that were "less valuable" than others doing the task. Man those old ammonia based development machines would make you scratch your ass wondering why the top of your head didn't feel anything.

     

    I'm sure all the man made materials that are far less concentrated in our day to day lives are far better for us now.

     

    PS, And the "less valuable" portion of the population remains. Well, other than within certain boarders for brief periods of time around election time. That's when you matter.
    23 Feb 2014, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Ammonia's safety record does indeed stink, but it's exponentially better than that of nuclear power accidents. So far the world has been relatively lucky in respect to nuclear accidents, but as the centuries tick off, it seems that luck is unlikely to hold out.

     

    Human error, mostly having to do with underestimating mother nature, has the potential to make huge swaths of land uninhabitable for thousands of years. Based on how many countries plan to dramatically increase their use of nuclear power, it seems like it's just a matter of time.
    24 Feb 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    I recently interviewed at a startup that is less than one year old, has a handful of founders, one prototype but no customers.... and raised over 5 million at a 20 million dollar valuation. That is already more than Axion's market cap.

     

    Maybe Axion needs to fundraise in California instead.
    23 Feb 2014, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Edge Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    You know, I have to wonder how many shares are controlled by people who read/ post on this board. All this talk of supply and demand has me wondering. I can't imagine anyone doing their DD on axpw not being aware of this resource. I have 125000 shares which I picked up this week. 800 people with the same amount would account for 50% of the company give or take. There surely are many people who post on this board who have many more shares than I do. Would be interesting to see how much of the float reads the boards. Would there be away to put an anonymous poll? I know you guys have been talking for years, so you might not be confortable saying how many shares you own, or even in the range of the shares you own.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    I believe someone asked about a year ago for all willing axionistas to send their share count (and the shares held by relatives) to an email address and that share count was reported back here. I'd be willing to volunteer my holdings if someone wanted to collect a share count again.
    23 Feb 2014, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    Sometime recently, within the last several months, I conducted a poll to identify those Axionistas with 1M-2M shares, 2M-4M shares, and 4Million+ shares.

     

    I don't recall the exact results at this point, but if you want to look back among the past handful of concentrators, you can search for the word "swagger" which was uniquely associated with this poll.

     

    After leaving polling open for the duration of one concentrator, I summarized results in the next.

     

    Update: Actually, you can more readily find these messages just my looking at =my= postings history.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
     
    I would love to see AXPW share price rise when the PIPEs are gone. I don't see the exact date of their exit being that important. The board is just focussing on that because they have lost hope in an immediate sales order announcement to raise the price.

     

    But I don't think PIPE exit will lead to a significant price rise. The volume history does not seem to support that. In the year before PIPE the share price sagged on low volume. AXPW was experiencing 200k trading days and the price was still dropping. Take away the 2M PIPE shares that are trading hands daily and we drop back down to 200k a day. OK so the price has fallen and the float in bigger so maybe the daily volume rises to 400k. But still, there was no shortage of stock 18 months ago and I don't see a shortage of stock when the PIPEs leave.

     

    Unless of course management manage to actually sell something.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you might want to take a second look at the price and volume graphs in the header of this Concentrator that show the data since Q2-11. Better yet study the FINRA graph in the header of this Concentrator that shows the data since Q1-10.

     

    There was a modest volume sag in late Q1 and early Q2, but the reason was disclosure in Axion's Q3-12 Quarterly Report that said "We believe that the currently available funds at September 30, 2012, which includes ... will provide sufficient financial resources for the current development stage operations, working capital and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2013."

     

    Axion was running on fumes and people were scared.

     

    Circumstances are very different today. Axion's most recent disclosures say "We believe that the currently available funds at September 30, 2013, and including ... will provide sufficient financial resources to fund our current operations, working capital, and capital expenditures into the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2014."

     

    As a relative newcomer to this forum you didn't live through the last four years which has been a veritable deluge of large willing sellers who sold for reasons that were unrelated to Axion's business performance. The selling pressure has been a sustained problem for years, not months, and we've finally reached a point where there are no more large holders waiting in line to sell.

     

    If you want to better understand the deep background history, start with this Instablog from October 2012:

     

    http://bit.ly/R5OAEA
    24 Feb 2014, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    Can u expand on "unrelated to Axion's business performance." I see no performance.
    24 Feb 2014, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    In December 2009 Axion's manufacturing process was crude, it had no disclosed potential customers and there had been no substantial third party testing of the PbC.

     

    Over the last four years the PbC has advanced from a pre-commercial prototype to a high-quality manufactured product with extraordinary performance. It has survived four years of brutal testing by BMW & NS, justified a joint DOE grant application with GM, justified a second joint DOE grant application with an undisclosed first tier automotive parts company, and given Axion enough stroke to facilitate formation of a working relationship between Cummins and ePower.

     

    In cosmic terms you have at least five moons orbiting what appears to be an asteroid. Anybody looking with an honest eye could only use words like superb and extraordinary to summarize those accomplishments.

     

    The stock chart, on the other hand, comes directly from the seventh circle of investor hell. We've had more big selling stockholders over the last four years than I ever would have dreamed possible, but their reasons for selling had nothing to do with Axion's business performance.

     

    Going into 2009 about 15.9 million shares were owned by bankrupt stockholders or stockholders who were trying to avoid bankruptcy after the crash. They all sold because they needed the money.

     

    The second biggest purchaser in the 2009 offering (8.2 million shares) died and his widow's advisors decided that Axion wasn't an appropriate investment for her.

     

    The first and third largest purchasers in the 2009 offering (16 million shares) replaced their original fund managers with new executives who promptly set about reconfiguring their portfolios to suit their investment styles.

     

    The small investors in 2009 (14.4 million shares) and 2012 (27.6 million shares) did what small investors frequently do and sold their shares for a nice short-term profit. We all know what the PIPE investors did.

     

    For the last four years long-suffering stockholders have lived with a daily deluge of shares from problem pre-2009 stockholders and investors in the 2009, 2012 and 2013 offerings. Except for a very brief period in Q1-12, the sellers have always outnumbered the buyers by a wide margin.

     

    Given that history it's very difficult for anybody to believe we're going to suddenly move from sell-side deluge to sell-side drought in the next couple weeks, but that's exactly what the spreadsheets I've been maintaining for the last four years say must happen.
    24 Feb 2014, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "Unless of course management manage to actually sell something. "

     

    Worth keeping in mind, IMO, dance.

     

    Peteresen quoted a statement in Axion's latest quarterly report ('13Q3) , "'We believe that the currently available funds at September 30, 2012, which includes ... will provide sufficient financial resources for the current development stage operations, working capital and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2013.'"

     

    Text replaced with "..." in the sentence Petersen quoted includes "and internally generated funds from net sales". One $320k sale of PbCs occurred in '13Q4 and IIRC e-Power bought PbCs for another truck tractor. Not much in the way of "internally generated funds so far, perhaps $85k - $90k net margin to cover cash drain.

     

    The '13Q3 10-Q also includes a paragraph reading,

     

    "Cash and cash equivalents at September 30, 2013 was $1.1 million .... Cash equivalents consist of short-term liquid investments with original maturities of no more than six months that are readily convertible into cash. Restricted cash at September 30, 2013 was $5.4 million .... (See Note 6 to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements)"

     

    Restricted cash is released to cash as senior convertible notes are retired/redeemed at a rate of $500k/month. $1.1 mil cash and equivalents + $5.4 mil restricted cash totals $6.4 mil. Cash burn is $1.8 - $2.0 mil per quarter so cash available without sales would be adequate for 3 - 3.5 quarters from September 30, i.e. - July - August of 2014. More PbC sales need to occur to carry Axion through '14Q3 and beyond.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Maybe if they had a giga factory they would save a bundle.

     

    Daimler battery joint venture threatened by savings goal

     

    "Klaus Engel, Evonik’s Chief Executive Officer said as far back as last year in October that slumping demand in electric cars and the increased model availability has put pressure on everyone, from carmaker to supply units like Li-Tec. He added that its company has decided to seek a buyer for its share in the venture, as extra risks and a cash infusion of millions would be needed to keep pace with the industry’s development."

     

    "Still, until now no solution seems to have come up, as according to a report back in December 2013 made by German Manager Magazin, the only interested bidder for Li-Tec was Korea’s LG Electronics – with the symbolic amount of 1 euro for the entire business."

     

    http://bit.ly/1bEXLuZ
    24 Feb 2014, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Bill Burtchaell
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Thank you John for that great condensed overview of the Axion stock history. How lucky we shareholders are to have a person in our circle with the first hand knowledge of the important effecting the history and evolution of Axion.

     

    Thank you especially for your open and communicative inputs to the benefit of your fellow Axionistas.

     

    Who can say where all this ends up, but I for one can say I've never owned a speculative issue and enjoyed this level of first person input.
    24 Feb 2014, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the kind words Bill. This unfolding drama has been an incredible education for me and the lessons are nowhere near over. I'm very confident that my historical analysis is accurate and we're on the cusp of a big change. The $64,000 question in my mind is "How big?" and I don't have an answer because Axion's supply and demand imbalance was about two orders of magnitude bigger than anything I've dealt with or studied in the past. That means I'm trying to predict the behavior of lions based on my experience with house-cats.
    24 Feb 2014, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
     
    Yes John I am new to this board but I have been in and out of the stock since 2008. Fortunately personal circumstances meant I had to liquidate my whole portfolio on two occasions since and am lucky that when I was holding the stock was relatively stable. As a consequence I have an new entry point of 12c.

     

    My point is John that you are pumping a position that AXPW will be dramatically rising in price once the PIPE investors leave. But I do not see any evidence of this ever having happened before. All previous rises were news based. BMW etc. If I asked you to show me a historical example of AXPW rising due to a shortage of available shares I don't think you could. And your reason for that is that we have not seen this set of circumstances before. My argument is that we have seen this set of circumstances before. In the first half of 2013.

     

    Is the situation really so different now? Is there anyone else on this board who is not nervous that AXPW need another round of financing in 6-9 months? I am nervous. In my humble opinion (yes with only 41 comments to my name on the concentrator) the Q4 funding need is weight hanging at the moment.

     

    I have been wrong many times but if I was a gambling man (and I am cos I hold AXPW) the price will not rise on PIPE exit alone. Orders are needed. Disclaimer: a decent refinancing deal would help price also, although I agree we will not see that for a few months yet.
    24 Feb 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    There has only been two periods in the last four years when there was a shortage of available shares. The first was in late 2010 when the dueling trustees were finished with their battle for first place at the pay window and selling by the Winner Estate, Quercus and Special Sits hadn't started. The second was January 2012 when Special Sits was done selling and the February offering hadn't happened. The price doubled in less than a week and then the February offering killed the run.

     

    The more interesting thing in my view is the huge lack of correlation between news events and price performance over the last four years. I recently wrote an Instablog that lays out 26 discrete events since December 2009 and shows where they fit into the price chart. It's almost impossible to find a correlation between good news and price performance because the deluge of selling was always sufficient to overwhelm the news. Going forward the selling deluge will be sell-side drought because everybody who wanted to sell already has.

     

    http://bit.ly/Lzfsj0
    24 Feb 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
     
    John I would love to be wrong on this one. I took a look at the chart for Jan 12 and yes the price doubled. There was a considerable amount of press that month though and I wonder if that helped the price rise. My point being that you need buyers to push the price higher and buyers like news.
    Here are the press releases for Jan 12...

     

    Jan 27, 2012
    Axion Power Appoints Vani Dantam to Head Business Development, Sales & Marketing
    Jan 25, 2012
    Batteries International Winter 2011/2012 | Axion Power Sets Industry First with New Grid Battery
    Jan 11, 2012
    PhysOrg.com | Axion sees future in lead-acid-carbon hybrid battery
    Jan 06, 2012
    CNET | New lead-acid battery angles for micro hybrids
    Jan 05, 2012
    AltEnergyMag | Energy Storage for the Grid
    Jan 04, 2012
    TorqueNews.com | PbC battery technology proves extended capability at DC Naval Yard
    Jan 04, 2012
    Axion Power Chosen for Battery Mini Power Cube in Zero Energy Building in Washington DC Naval Yard
    24 Feb 2014, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I suppose the next few weeks will add a lot of clarity to obviously divergent views on what matters.
    24 Feb 2014, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Well hell, JP since everyone else is speculating I will also. :>)

     

    Methinks we'll see very little action until mid April. We'll see the air clear and cool stuff begin to happen but we won't believe it. Then there will be toe in the water then sales announcements in late April, Early May, and then . . . .

     

    It just seems axiomatic (a'hem ) to me that we will have to let the smoke clear the room before all the players at the table see who holds chips. Then the betting will begin. Six months will be at the end of the string then also.

     

    Ultra high risk stock risks and hazards always in mind, I remain optimistic. Wonder why?

     

    You willing to bet lunch when next we meet?
    24 Feb 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since I assumed I'd have to buy lunch the next time we meet a bet is a no lose proposition for me. Done
    24 Feb 2014, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
     
    Maybe we can find some common ground on the volume levels we are likely to see when the PIPEs disappear. Just a guess but 300-400k seems reasonable. I guess a week of that would indicate heavy selling over. There doesn't seem to be more than a day or two in a row of under 500k in the last 3 months.
    24 Feb 2014, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Since I really consider myself a student at this point I'm reluctant to predict anything beyond a shift from deluge to drought. The possibilities for both price and volume volatility seem endless.
    24 Feb 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    dance: we've had the equivalent in those announcements already. Vani Dantam - DiGiacinto. Navy Yard - Bysolar. Various blogs and even a potential Kia lead carbon SS car. All that stuff hasn't been built into the price because of the PIPErs.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, I think it also hasn't been reflected in the price because in early 2012 those analog events were taken as strongly suggestive of sales not too far around the corner. The corner being several months. Now a full two years later without major sales, there's a little bit of "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" counter-psychology at work...
    24 Feb 2014, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (1303) | Send Message
     
    @dance, I don't think you are wrong about this. There was no shortage of shares before the PIPE deal, and now with nearly double the share count, there will not be any shortage when they are done. The only thing that will drive demand between now and the potential Armageddon of the next capital raise will be a clear path to increasing sales revenue.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    Maybe among long time Axionistas, but any announcement is bound to draw new buyers. If there weren't a swamp of sellers, we'd get upwards movement.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (205) | Send Message
     
    I certainly agree with Ranma. But I also feel the quality of the order will prove to be very important. For example (and no disrespect to ePower as I feel that it is one of the best prospects for AXPW) if ePower place an order for 100k of batteries or even more it will be classed as a "trial order". An order for batteries so the technology can be better tested. What would really move the price is an order for customers who have already finished testing (or at least are perceived to have finished testing). A decent BMW order / announcement would see the price rise to well over $2 pretty much instantly.
    24 Feb 2014, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps, dance, if the 100k order is $100k which could be batteries for four to five ePower demo trucks. OTHO, $100k PbC order from ePower to support building tractors for multiple truck fleet operators placing orders after using an ePower demo for a week or two could have different effect on AXPW share price.
    24 Feb 2014, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    HTL, did u see that earlier? An over 850k share offer thru ATDF at 9.60 cents. Covered up now on Level II by the usual 10k offer from the same mm.

     

    Wonder what that means.
    24 Feb 2014, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I thought it was for 85k on the ask. Anyway, someone w/ level 2 can tell us if it's still there along with the magnitude.
    24 Feb 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, Yep, you were right. ;-D
    24 Feb 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    iinde, I believe it was 867k when I saw it.

     

    Need TotalView or similar to see depth for any particular mm. I don't have that---only Level II.
    24 Feb 2014, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    MrI: ATDF. No ARCA today, so I suspect "they" are using ATDF.

     

    867K @ 09:32 @ $0.096.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    Indelco: There is also that. ATDF playing both sides as usual.

     

    Currently 89K @ $0.0955.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Just got taken out.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    HTL, the PIPErs couldn't have been the 867k shares offer, as it was entered early in the day when volume was still tiny, so they would have violated the 15% max rule.

     

    And ARCA has entered the selling, right on schedule and right where you'd expect them--just below the large block seller. My guess is ARCA = Parsoon (and perhaps one other PIPEr), since ARCA has been the most aggressive on Level II.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL, I can't wait for the first PIPEr to leave so that maybe we can see a change in the weather.
    24 Feb 2014, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19539) | Send Message
     
    MrI: true, true. Unless it was an "All or none", which it seems now it wasn't.

     

    But, until the sell is done, they could offer a million and not break any rules.

     

    ARCA exits at 12:59 from the sell side.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (494) | Send Message
     
    You can certainly tell when the sellers come in.

     

    I had a little 20k order in at .095 and it sat there for an hour until a big seller came in and took out all the orders at that level. Pipers must have a good life partying all night and then they sleep in before selling at 11:00am.
    24 Feb 2014, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Used to be that the PIPErs sold in force starting at about noon to 12:30pm or so. We'll see what they do today, with that one seller trying to sell almost 867k shares before them.
    24 Feb 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    What's more interesting is that with such a big seller the share price is actually up nearly 5% at 500k+ volume. Fakeout?
    24 Feb 2014, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    For anyone that still holds a fantasy that there are any remaining ties between Rosewater and Axion.

     

    "An original system showed last year was about twice as large in size, due to the use of bulky lead carbon batteries. Now the system is battery-agnostic, using smaller and more compact lithium ion or GE Durathon batteries that use sodium metal halide chemistry and nickel chloride (metal salt technology) for greater energy density."

     

    And the price has come down. I'd need to look at the specs to see if the inverter has been changed.

     

    "The cost for a RoseWater Energy Storage Hub? Try a cool $60,000. Though as Piccirilli reminds us, many technologies when they start out are expensive and more exclusive to the high end before experiencing rapid price declines as volume rises."

     

    http://bit.ly/1epTnuB
    24 Feb 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    Iinde > Where's the 'unlike' button? No, not your post but Rosewater.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    IIRC they were complaining that the original HUB was too expensive at $40,000, so I guess the $60,000 version ought to go flying off the shelves.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    '"An original system showed last year was about twice as large in size, due to the use of bulky lead carbon batteries. Now the system is battery-agnostic, using smaller and more compact lithium ion or GE Durathon batteries that use sodium metal halide chemistry and nickel chloride (metal salt technology) for greater energy density."'

     

    :-) System was about twice as large to accommodate bulky batteries and now sized for smaller batteries but is battery agnostic.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2808) | Send Message
     
    I'm not losing any sleep over Rosewater. They can take over the onesies and twosies market and cold-call to their heart's content. Axion was right not to sell to them for a loss.
    24 Feb 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Give it a few years. If the HUB product gains any traction at all as a viable product, so that they're in fact still around then, they will still be looking for those cost reductions from lithium and they won't be finding them. And woe indeed if they have any fire or early failure issues. And it's a fair guess the PbC at that point will in all likelihood be even a better than it is today, and certainly cheaper. Rosewater will find itself being driven back to the PbC as a matter of practicality and necessity...
    24 Feb 2014, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    John, was it 40k USD? I thought I remembered it being higher.
    24 Feb 2014, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    We could be conflating estimates for "cost to make" with "retail sale price".
    24 Feb 2014, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, at the CEDIA event in Indianapolis, the Rosewater HUB was listed at $45,000 retail.
    24 Feb 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Great, Thanks Maya!
    24 Feb 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the correction Maya. It's good to know somebody who was on the ground and remembers for sure.
    24 Feb 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    For the record: I was on the ground, but I didn't attend the CEDIA event. Al Marshall went in my stead due to a shoulder injury, (ahem) which grounded me.

     

    But the $45,000 retail price is indeed what I recall for the HUB.
    24 Feb 2014, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    fwiw, I think the residential HUB concept is still something vital that will eventually come into its own, in some form, at least for certain markets--high end homes, rural homes and ranches, perhaps certain subdivisions or multi-family buildings. Storage can make a certain amount of sense in many situations, even at not-insignificant cost. And it can make solar make more sense with it than without it. And with the increasing penetration of rooftop solar, at some point its time will come. Particularly as part of new construction, where a comprehensive system can best and most cheaply be implemented and also integrated with the purchase price (ie first-mortage financing).

     

    And PbC is still IMHO a very worthy contender to be the battery of choice. Its strengths and virtues line up well for such an application: Safe, durable, long-cycle life and long-calendar life, minimal thermal management required, high power in and out, quick charging, excellent PSOC performance, low cost, etc etc... yeah the footprint is bigger, yeah it's heavier, but for a house designed from the get-go to accommodate significant battery storage along with the associated electronics, hardly a show-stopper. But clearly the price of the entire system has to come down from the stratosphere. I think about 30K all in is where it starts to become attractive. Say you're talking a new 300K house without any solar or storage. But if for 330K you could get solar 10K, a propane generator 3K, the power electronics 7K, and 16KWh of PbC batteries, about 10K...all installed cleanly during construction-- so essentially if you can have a house with virtually guaranteed power and reduced energy bills, for a reasonable upcharge, that could be attractive to many buyers.

     

    But again, the key will be to ruthlessly drive down all the ancillary costs --design, permitting, certification, installation, etc etc by going to some kind of standardization and volume and focusing on new construction...

     

    anyway, that's my pipe dream... at least 5 years out though...
    24 Feb 2014, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    As a point of reference Tesla and SolarCity are reportedly offering a BESS for demand charge management that has "about one-eighth of the juice found in Tesla’s top-of-the-line battery pack" (~10 kWh) and "would cost about $15,000 without financing."

     

    http://bloom.bg/1ceYe6r

     

    It tickles me that Tesla is allegedly buying cells for $250 per kWh and charging end-users $1,500 per kWh for an integrated system, but there does seem to be a bit of a disconnect between Rosewater's price and Tesla's price. I wonder which company will be more skillful at marketing and financing?
    24 Feb 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    But again, and to the point of many of your past articles, why in heaven's name use *lithium ion* for ANY fixed place terrestrial storage? I mean, why pay the premium just to have a smaller and lighter package? And then also have to deal with the fire-hazard headaches and all the other unpredictable behaviors of Li-ion. Plus, at higher cost. Plus the disposal costs. Why? Just to save a few square feet? Dumb. Makes zero sense to me. Economic gravity should be the sole determiner here. I just can't see how, where size and weight should rightfully be tertiary considerations at best, that PbC isn't virtually the hands down winner when it comes to stationary storage of any kind. Well, if it's the kind that's actually going to be worked to any degree. If it's merely there for once in a blue-moon emergency backup then I guess flooded LA can still make better sense. But still, Li-ion? Why? As I think you've stated so many times, Li-ion belongs in cordless drills and powertools, laptops, cellphones, video cameras, and heavy hybrid cars... but stationary is just a waste of its signal virtues--high densities.
    24 Feb 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    I am in agreement with all you say regarding the PbC should be the obvious choice in this application. At least that is what I believe the general consensus here on the blog is.

     

    So, what info are we missing then??

     

    The best of anything is worthless until somebody buys it and puts it into use!
    24 Feb 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I agree wholeheartedly, but that won't stop Snake Oil Sam from selling energy density and weight as advantages that justify a premium price.
    24 Feb 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    I know. We must be missing something. Axion just needs to get hooked up with somebody like honeywell, or eaton, or I don't know trane, or courier, or one of the big solar players... (bysolar, no offence, just not that big a player I fear)
    24 Feb 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    RBrun357: The missing info may just be that some lithium chemistries are actually cheaper than the PbC.

     

    More than a year ago, Mario Battero of Rosewater stated to me that that was the case, especially when it came to the HUB.

     

    That was information that I did not like hearing.

     

    Trying to figure out Kw/KwHr pricing for various battery chemistries and applications is like trying to ski through the woods during a white out.

     

    But it leads me to ponder that pricing is the biggest reason why Axion is not selling more PowerCubes.

     

    Performance doesn't seem to be an issue, with the PbC getting a 96% + rating, as well as the thinking that the PbC will (or should) do better in more extreme hot and cold periods and climes.

     

    Surely, safety of the PbC versus lithium can't be an issue.

     

    Nor durability, if what we've learned is true. (Although I think that Axion cutting off their testing at 100,000 light duty cycles testing was a wrong move -- run it until it dies would be what I would have done.)

     

    So what are we left with?

     

    Pricing, and maybe warranties. This idea certainly will not be a popular one received amongst Axionistas, but it does go a long way toward explaining why Axion has landed so few of the RFPs that New Castle has repeatedly talked about.
    24 Feb 2014, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Maya, you may be dead right. And it may be unpleasant to face. If we think of an individual PbC as 0.50 KWh and $300 (very rough numbers) then we're looking at $600 per KWh nominal. It seems true that that doesn't scream bargain. But there is always more to the story, and in the case of PbC, perhaps it's cycle life. After all it's not just that $ per KWh installed, but it's that same KWh installed multiplied by the number of cycles it can sustain in its lifetime, then divided into the cost, that really matters. But that requires a deeper look than the simple $/KWh figure that's on the window sticker...

     

    But clearly, I think your point still obtains, that PbC price has to come down..
    24 Feb 2014, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    48th: All conjecture, but it makes too much sense to ignore.

     

    Despite all that, Axionistas can now count me back in the gang. Bought some trading shares late in the day at $0.0909.

     

    Just 909 clams for the same amount of shares I once paid $12,000 for!
    24 Feb 2014, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5783) | Send Message
     
    48, I am not sure the PbC is the best storage for a home PC. The PbC will only power a home for a few hours, most owners will want a couple days.

     

    If it's for smoothing out dirty electricity and surges then it may work.

     

    Either way, I don't see this as a big mkt.

     

    IMO, what BySolar did by putting another battery chemistry in for storage and the PbC for frequency is the optimum and where the PbC will find it's niche. Very few chemistries can compete with the frequency cycling of the PbC.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    LT, I hear you, but still, Kilowatt hours is Kilowatt hours. The PbC excels at fast response yes, but that doesn't mean it has to stink for lower discharge rates over longer periods. Would be nice to know though. Now, to Maya's points, *maybe* what is the case is that it's not worth paying the PbC premium (if indeed there is a premium) for an application that calls for longer discharge, not if there are cheaper (but slower) alternatives KWh for KWh that can be used instead. And maybe again that's the same hurdle we have to climb. Cost. There's also a lot more to this though WRT to such things as round trip efficiency, thermal impacts on performance, calendar fade, etc etc. All I know is someday it will be nice to finally get the full story.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    LT: True, and then there is brand recognition. Buy Panasonic, or Axion?

     

    IIRC, I read a long time ago that Panasonic had a HUB for around $22,000, which would provide essential backup power for 10 hours.

     

    Just recently, my power was out for 3 3/4s days. I spent $140 on candles, survived in about 64 degrees in my kitchen and bedroom, and have lots left over for the next power outage.

     

    Although having 80 some candles burning simultaneously in two rooms is NOT recommended; I was constantly on edge that some candle would freak out!
    24 Feb 2014, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Especially for Maya – http://bit.ly/1hj703j
    24 Feb 2014, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Hahaha!
    24 Feb 2014, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (2304) | Send Message
     
    Glad to have you back on board, Maya! Here's to a change in direction, momentum.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    Then again, slowness in PowerCube sales may reflect a lack of financing availability to project developers relative to those who opt to use other energy storage chemistries. Both pricing and finance availability could be impeding sales.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Carrier. As in SU's Carrier Dome Arena.

     

    Lose 2 games in a row and they forget where ya come from! Eh 48. ;-)
    24 Feb 2014, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    48th: The only pricing info I have for the PowerCube was that a half megawatt Cube could be had for around $1,000,000, which I learned in Nov. 2012 during the Viridity/Axion/PowerCube unveiling.

     

    Surely, that price has dropped due to the automated carbon sheeting process, and (hopefully) that TG has come through on restructuring deals from suppliers like Princeton Power. Again...conjecture.
    24 Feb 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Maya, just for clarity, that's for a 500 kilowatt, 250 kilowatt-hour cube?

     

    If so, then that's $4000 per KWh. To use that overworked metric. Of course that's not only for the batteries, but all in, I would take it...
    24 Feb 2014, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Glad to have you back.
    As to cost, it might also be that some of the Li-ion battery manufactures are willing to sell the batteries at below cost, just to keep their inventory moving. Axion couldn't afford to do that, since they didn't have other revenue sources to rely upon, but that may not be true for Panasonic or one of the other battery companies.
    24 Feb 2014, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    "Maya, just for clarity, that's for a 500 kilowatt, 250 kilowatt-hour cube? "

     

    If memory serves, that is accurate 48~. Stated differently, a PowerCube containing 1,000 PbC batteries would cost about $1 mil.

     

    In November we saw a PR reporting, "$320,000 purchase order includes batteries, racks, wiring, data communication system and electronics coordination (electronics and power system to be provided by Owner)". In the November CC, TG disclosed the battery count in that order as 600 which presumably would support a 300kW/150kWh fully equipped power cube.

     

    However, Princeton Power Systems' PR a couple of months later (http://bit.ly/1c2m1Yg) says the project utilizes "a 500kW battery inverter system for frequency regulation and emergency backup power." And BySolar is quoted as claiming, “When configured for frequency regulation, the Princeton Power Systems 500kW inverter combined with Axion’s 300kWH battery creates a revenue-generating backup power system ....”
    24 Feb 2014, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Thinking about this, I'm not sure if the issue is that the Li-ion batteries are cheaper, or that they are cheaper for the Hub. As I read the article, Rosewater is pushing the fact that their new design is smaller, and can hold more energy. But it is also $15,000 more than it was when they had PbC batteries in it. Before they were focusing more on cleaning up the power for the electronics and keeping things running until your back-up generator would come on, now they are talking about powering your house for a day with a Hub. I see this as a difference between a power battery and an energy battery. If you wanted to build a system that had PbCs in it, but could hold as much energy as Li-ion batteries, you may have needed more than one Hub. So the cost for multiple cases, circuitry, etc would have caused the total price to be higher to reach the same amount of energy and would have taken up more space. Maybe those were all deal breakers for selling the PbC Hub, and so now they are trying Li-ion or the Durathon batteries and hoping the buyers will pay the premium price to have more energy on hand when they might need it (i.e. the Tesla model for selling Model Ss with larger battery packs.)
    24 Feb 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    But right now the price reflects the same amount of storage as the unit that contained the PbC batteries. 12 kWH.
    24 Feb 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    I've been operating under the assumption for a while now that a 12V PbC is nominally good for a solid 1KW of *power* (ie 100 amps at 10Volts in the sweetspot of its range) and 1/2 KWh of *energy*.

     

    So given that, 1,000 PbCs would be 1MW of power, and 500KWh of energy.

     

    But then if the powercube we're all referring to is only 500KW, then it should be more like 500 PbCs, not 1000...
    24 Feb 2014, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Probably explains why they don't say more on pricing issues as well. If it was a huge advantage, you would expect to hear more table pounding.
    24 Feb 2014, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Lab: Yes, I did notice the $60,000 price tag. I have been following Axion Power and JP for nearly five years, and I still can't wrap my head one sixteenth around the battery planet.

     

    For me, if I owned a 5000 square foot plus home, I'd just have a generator, and brave the foul weather during a power outage to fill up the generator when needed. A much cheaper solution.

     

    (Unfortunately, my homeowners association is still in the "dark ages" when it comes to generators, because they, "Make too much noise." Ha! I say. In my circle of 16 homes, of 4 cluster homes each, I was the only one who endured the power outage, i.e., everyone else bailed and therefore nobody would have heard that noisy generator anyway. Most certainly, my two heat pumps together make far less noise than any of the newer generation generators.)

     

    All of this purity of power stuff for home electronics is both way over my head, and far too expensive for my budget.

     

    Heck, last year I bought a 220V GE Profile Advantium over-the-stove, microwave + convection + some kind of light that heats food, and this smart appliance will adjust cooking times due to grid voltage irregularities that very moment. Beyond me how it does it, but from fridge to done, I can cook up three crispy-skinned chicken legs in seven minutes flat.
    24 Feb 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4851) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the perspective, 48~.

     

    FWIW, I just retrieved (almost saved it in one of those places that is safe from ever being found by me again) the old Rosewater Energy spec sheet which gives a battery count of 560 with
    -- System power rating; 0.50 MW,
    -- System energy storage-C rate; 0.25 MWh
    -- Rated Ah capacity ~1 hour; 70 Ah
    -- Rated Wh capacity ~ 1 hour; 500 Wh
    -- Round trip efficiency in deep cycle app; 90% - 95%
    -- Rated output voltage; 480 VAC
    -- DC Bus Voltage; 480 VDC
    -- Operating temperature range; -20 to +40 degrees C
    24 Feb 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    Since it's been a year now, I think I can say that Maya's info from RW jives with what they told me, too. Additionally, they bid on two PC projects and lost both to li-ion, on one of which Axion's bid was at a 50% higher price than the winner's.

     

    Prospective customer concerns also included Axion's staying power---the battery and system might last a long time, but will you be around in 2, 5, 10 years if and when we need service?

     

    Hopefully the PC is more competitive now that it seems to have been then, based on this limited amt of info and the prior total lack of sales. Perhaps some of the li-ion competitors have fallen away and together with possibly more favorable PbC and system pricing, improved PbC battery, and the ever longer PC/PJM track record, will let them win a lot more bids than just the BySolar one.
    24 Feb 2014, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    If that is true, then I don't understand the article, because I never remember Rosewater claiming in the past that you could run your house for a day on just the batteries in a PbC Hub?
    24 Feb 2014, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    481> We don't yet know about the PbC's calendar life. Just cycle life with minimal 'rest' is outstanding.
    24 Feb 2014, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    Considering how long and closely many here have followed Axion, we don't "know" a lot of things ...
    24 Feb 2014, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, well the math is very obvious as presented by Rosewater.

     

    I indicated, when they first offered the gen 1 Rosewater offering, that I didn't understand the uber affluent market and I never will. So now they have a new package that costs more directionally for the same level of performance, minus half the cubic space, so perhaps it's getting so foreign to me that it makes sense.
    24 Feb 2014, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    As a marketing tool, Axion could have a running post on their website (sort of like the national debt clock) showing how many cycles the PbC it currently has. Obviously, the higher that number gets, the more impressive it becomes for potential buyers!!
    25 Feb 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    Maya,

     

    Good for you. I was actually thinking earlier while reading posts...a good entry point will be when Maya buys back in!!
    25 Feb 2014, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    I watched the SU/Duke game....THEY WUZ ROBBED on that call at 10 seconds. It was a block, not a foul. The basket should have counted and Su going to the line for the +1. Instead, Boeheim goes ape, gets 2 techs and ejected....end of game.
    25 Feb 2014, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh, now you know better than that !

     

    SU is a newcomer to the ACC and Duke is the perennial powerhouse. Plus Coach K is the Olympic coach. Again.

     

    No way is SU gong to catch a break. Hell, I didn't watch the game at all and I know it was a foul. Your TV must transmit faulty images. :>)
    25 Feb 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
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