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  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Something about an early bird... hoping Axion gives us some cause for excitement soon!
    25 Feb, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    How is the "...not six months" tracking coming? Any significant TG promise fulfillment sightings?
    25 Feb, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    any worm left?
    25 Feb, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    If I thought my estimates were spot-on accurate, I'd be saying that Parsoon should be out by this afternoon. Since I know the estimates are rough, I'm thinking the worm surplus will end by mid-March.
    25 Feb, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    Los Angeles is throwing major support behind efforts to clean up the diesel trucking fleet.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fBBxtn

     

    "The South Coast Air Quality Management District on Feb. 7 awarded $65.5 million to replace about 1,900 older heavy-duty diesel trucks with new lower-emission models."

     

    That works out to about $35,000 per tractor for meeting California's 2010 standards.

     

    Under the California rules, new chassis is not required as long as the engine is upgraded to meet the requirements.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fBBwpg

     

    ePower isn't going to be looking at sales in California for a while because we don't want to provide customer service thousands of miles from home, but the California initiatives are typical of State level programs I've seen. We may be focusing on unsubsidized economics for business planning purposes, but there's a lot of free money floating around for our potential customers.
    25 Feb, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • danpm4life
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    “ePower isn't going to be looking at sales in California for a while because we don't want to provide customer service thousands of miles from home…”

     

    JP, In previous posts, I wrote about TravelCenters of America (TA), a major truck stop operator with 244 (now 500 TA’s in 42 states & Canada) sites across the most heavily used US interstates, including California. I also mentioned that since TA does truck repairs, they could be a good candidate for e-Power kit &/or battery box distribution and/or installs. Last year, Royal Dutch Shell struck a major deal with TA for developing LNG filling stops @ their TA locations. There are 2 TA spots in Kentucky, one is located in Florence off I-75.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fpaDjJ;highway=

     

    I’ve read that e-Power has this astute attorney working for them. Perhaps he would be interested in drafting a business partner agreement that could be used with TA &/or others, that could address e-Power kit training, sales, service, protected territories, etc. Then e-Power can provide training to their business partners @ your home location & once the business partner(s) have been trained, e-Power could provide low cost remote training & service support.

     

    If e-Power hasn’t already addressed the kinds of training options available, it may be worthwhile to talk to Cummins & potentially TA @ their Corp Office, after a local visit or two, (open sales door, insert foot), about the types of material they provide & their sources of good technical trainers/writers, & for TA, whether there is a fit, for the e-Power kit, at one or more of their locations. In the worst case scenario, e-Power may pick up a couple of TA referral locations.

     

    Once e-Power decides on a very specific training approach, hire a contract trainer/writer, for a limited term, & get them to sign an NDA. Once on board, give them immediate access to the e-Power Subject Matter Expert’s (SME’s) engineers, mechanics etc., to help train the trainer & provide better end results.

     

    Each state location would be responsible for knowing the regulations, to “Reduce Particulate Matter and Criteria Pollutant Emissions from In-Use Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles,” & associated penalties for their state. For example, in Ca., Regulatory Advisory No. 416 provides for fines that range from $1,000 a day to $10,000 a day, to the seller of a non-compliant truck who did not provide the appropriate disclosure. It would not take a long time, for a seller of said truck, to realize that an e-Power repower would be cheaper than the fine.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fpaDjR
    25 Feb, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    That kind of relationship will be pursued in due time but we think the preliminary steps are (a) proving the fuel efficiency of our drivetrain in the real world, and (b) getting enough on-road experience with the drivetrain to identify and rectify weaknesses. Nothing new is ever perfect, except perhaps a Tesla Model S.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hxWK65
    26 Feb, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    Hi John, how are the boffins at ePower proceeding. Any nibbles of info you can share?
    25 Feb, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    We're still working to optimize the control integration between the engine and generator. Currently we're getting about 115 kW out of the generator but we ought to be able to run steady state at 135 kW and peak at about 150 kW. Cummins and Marathon are providing solid support services but its always tedious when you have to get control systems from different companies to play nice.

     

    Jay just sent me an example of the trip data detail we're getting from our GPS system. For a 93 minute trip that covered 84.5 miles with 2,064 feet of cumulative elevation gain we got 788 discrete records for speed, direction and elevation.

     

    http://bit.ly/NucgGI

     

    If anybody in the DFW area has the ability to collect the same kind of GPS data and a desire to take a road trip from Fort Worth to Vernon, we'd love to get a similar profile for the Cummins-Peterbilt SuperTruck route.
    25 Feb, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    How the Day Cab coming? Are they both in parallel testing/tuning yet or is it still being assembled?
    25 Feb, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    We only have one crew and they can only do one thing at a time. Since the drivetrains are identical we're focusing on getting the sleeper cab running right before finishing work on the day cab. As long as the weather cooperates, the sleeper will be our primary focus and the day cab will sit on the back burner. When we have the first drivetrain working the way we want it to, we'll finish our work on the second. You don't need to ask for progress reports on the day cab. When there's something worth talking about you can rest assured that I'll do so.
    25 Feb, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (731) | Send Message
     
    I understand but, since you are close to the source, little things to you seem much more interesting to us that are farther away. (and starved for any good news)
    Even "we have over come another small issue" or "the meeting went really well" is good to hear.
    25 Feb, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I understand. I'll try to be more diligent about posting excerpts from Jay's bi-weekly letters.
    25 Feb, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    02/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 162, MinTrSz: 365, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol: 3002135, AvTrSz: 18532
    Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1039, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0927
    # Buys, Shares: 59 897850, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0945
    # Sells, Shares: 103 2104285, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0920
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.34 (29.91% "buys"), DlyShts 489500 (16.31%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.26%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0769 vs. $0.0772, $0.0775, $0.0777, $0.0778, $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0779 and $0.0779 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0742 vs. $0.0752, $0.0763, $0.0785, $0.0799, $0.0816, $0.0846, $0.0836 $0.0881 and $0.0902 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.10%, 7.11%, -1.30%, -7.45% and -31.99% respectively. Price spread today was 15.44% vs. 6.59%, 9.23%, 8.42%, 3.59%, 6.40%, 9.52%, 3.49%, 16.06% and 17.07% on prior days.

     

    It should be noted we had exactly one trade of 1K shares for $0.1039. The next highest price seen was $0.0960. If we used $0.0960 as the high, high movement was -1.03% instead of +7.11% and spread was 6.67% instead of 15.44%.

     

    Larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 59 of 162, 36.42%, trades. These totaled 2,194,150, 73.09% of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0927 ... The rest of the trades, 807,985 shares representing 26.91% of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.0930.

     

    On the traditional TA front, I'm going to discount the garbage first. That single $0.1039 trade for 1000 shares strikes me as intentionally introduced noise. So although a typical chartist would see that as a higher high, indicating something useful about trading sentiment. I don't. I see it as someone being careless or intentionally distorting perceptions. I will use the $0.0960 I mentioned above as the high in my considerations.

     

    The lower highs continued today, making three consecutive lower highs, and the string of lower lows restarted with a low of 186,650 shares in four trades at $0.0900. We now also have four consecutive lower closes. For the third straight day the intra-day low, $0.09, appears to be riding atop my intermediate-term descending support, ~$0.0905 today AFAICT. The close was up 1/10th at $0.0910.

     

    Deep in oversold is full stochastic, which is flat, and Williams %R, also flat. RSI, which was weakening, is now flat at ~37, just above oversold of 30. MFI, which was had finally began a trend down has gone back to flat. Momentum finally stopped its down move at 77,18, up from yesterday's 76.31. This is still a far cry from hallelujah time though – remember we dropped from 0.9078 and 0.965 readings just four and three days ago. ADX and related stopped weakening. MACD and it's histogram are negative and continue accelerating downward.

     

    Interesting that the lone $0.1039 trade of 1K shares “bumped it's head” on my long-term descending resistance. Even with that, six days we've traded completely below my longer-term descending resistance and, if we discount that “Lone Ranger”, continue to depart from it to the downside at a high rate. It was “increasing rate”, but now I can't tell for sure.

     

    The chance for continued support by my medium-term support grows increasingly suspect. I said yesterday ... I think Wednesday we are likely to be below the line into the $0.08xx area.

     

    The next potential support continues to be my long-term descending support, still around ~$0.081, very near the most recent new all-time low ...

     

    Even with that, we had early pressure awaiting us as I saw an 867K offer at $0.096 from ATDF at 09:32 that was hidden quite a bit of the day. It became best offer at 10:47 but was again hidden by 10:51. It was at the top again at 11:07 with 706K remaining at $0.096. It got nibbled down for a good part of the day and ...

     

    It looks like they capitulated with a $0.095 offer with 602.6K shares remaining at 14:21. At 15:01 a different offer at $0.093 with 462K appeared and after it was gone (gobbled up?) the $0.095 by 602.6K returned at 15:21.

     

    More statistics, thoughts and the usual in the blog here.
    http://bit.ly/1eFQs6X

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1211) | Send Message
     
    "IG just announced a project with Continental Electrical Construction Company in Illinois to bid its 100-kilowatt battery system into PJM. The battery and solar combo is expected to pay for itself in five years using IG’s service."

     

    Thats pretty encouraging, considering its in the midwest, where electricity is relatively cheap.

     

    http://bit.ly/Mr6zsm
    25 Feb, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    I really like what IG is selling. Software that optimizes the economics of solar + storage by managing it as part of a fleet of assets with different owners. It's brilliant. Axion should be paying close attention and consider some way to partner in a program like that instead of each power cube being a standalone asset.
    25 Feb, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this has been posted but Tesla has announced plans to build the worlds largest battery factory.

     

    http://bit.ly/Mr8AF3
    25 Feb, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    And on the pedestal these words appear:
    "My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
    Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
    25 Feb, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Excellent point.
    25 Feb, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    We may say what we think about Musk, but his shareholders have been having a blast for the past year or so.

     

    Then I look at TG and his "promises" since 2009, and it makes me want to cry. I still have some faith in the PbC and its potential, but it is becoming increasingly hard to look at my portfolio these days and not feel frustrated. At this point, doubt is starting to infiltrate me and it is no good...
    26 Feb, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    Amouna> I have an opposite view though it may seem odd. If I had bought TSLA at half the current price and rode it to a double now, I'd have been miserable and worried sick the whole time. That's because in my view I paid $5 for a dollar in the hopes of selling it to a greater fool for $10.

     

    With Axion, though I understand there are financing and technology risks, I've felt quite good about the risk/reward asymmetry which has kept me buying all the way down with +less+ worry than if I had owned a rising TSLA. That's because I figure with AXPW right now you can likely buy a dollar for about 10 cents. Whether near term the price goes to a nickel or fifteen cents doesn't matter much. If I'm roughly right about the dollar then eventually it will go thereabouts.
    26 Feb, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    Concur, unless I'm on margin.
    26 Feb, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    Amouna> Musk is without question the most brilliant snake oil salesman I've ever seen. Just a few minutes ago Tesla announced that they were going to pile another $1.6 billion in convertible debt on their equity light capital structure. The game of musical chairs will be great fun till the music stops.

     

    I share your frustration with Axion's price chart, but I can't identify a single management failure in the last six years. Axion's had more than its share of bad luck with investors who appeared reliable and ended up flakey. TG's crystal ball is no better than mine when it comes to predicting timing. Despite the stock chart from hell, the PbC has progressed from a crude pre-commercial prototype to a fine manufactured product with extraordinary performance. Since my investment thesis has not changed, I do my best to ignore the market noise.
    26 Feb, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Snake oil salesman. Heck, that's an understatement. He's in solar, automotive, space and batteries, all hugely difficult businesses, and every other headline I read about the various businesses says he's going to change the world.

     

    Heck, someone should send the guy to DC and he'd fix health care and politics plus the US would be solvent again in about a week!
    26 Feb, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    that makes him a sassy-b, lol
    26 Feb, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    10 million square feet and going to employ 6,500 persons... make enough batteries for 500,000 cars (exceeding all of 2013 global battery production) AND reduce the cost of batteries by 30%.

     

    will boy wonders never cease...
    26 Feb, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/NxPtd8

     

    some interesting blow by blow...

     

    So, co-inkadinks?
    26 Feb, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    48, Here it is. It's that easy. One Giga factor process flow diagram coming up. Don't know why Panasonic couldn't figure this out!

     

    How Tesla's Gigafactory Will Work In One Big Slide

     

    http://read.bi/1gD1IxE
    26 Feb, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. The price gains seem too small to revolutionize anything, when you figure that the battery is only part of the cost of a li-ion battery system. Even an all-time giant factory may not result in a li-ion battery system that is economic.

     

    Also, we've got 4-5 years before their battery costs drop 30%. Knowing that the battery is only part of the battery system cost, I think the PbC is safe, at least for years, wherever the two batteries might compete.
    26 Feb, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I have to admire a guy who can triumphantly announce plans to turn a mere supply glut into a giga-glut. I'm particularly impressed with the financial acumen of loading another $1.8 billion in debt on a company that's already carrying $1.8 billion in debt with $590 million in equity. I don't care who you are, a debt to equity ratio of six is absolutely crushing.
    26 Feb, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    IINDelco,
    Interesting. I don't see anything in that flow diagram that explains how they are going to get the raw materials back out of the battery packs? Not to mention that I wouldn't want both of those processes going on in the same facility. One little fire and the whole thing goes up in smoke.
    26 Feb, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    I think he will have to learn that lesson the hard way...unless he can keep pulling rabbits for his hat!
    26 Feb, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    wow that is stupendous. oh and look, they have provision for recycling too. how clever. something puzzles me though... 6,500 workers...but I thought to reduce costs the plant needs to be almost totally automated and robotic... isn't that how the big asian mfgs are doing it today? but hmm... 500,000 packs a year... 6,500 employees... at an avg total cost of say $100K a year... equals... $1300 per pack in labor alone... at full run rate... but then what about raw materials? Isn't that kind of a big part of the cost, that they're going to reduce by 30%? Will they have their own mines and smelters and lithium evap ponds as well? They probably should. I bet they could teach the mining industry a few things too.
    26 Feb, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    John, And with that announcement it's up 7 USD after hours.
    26 Feb, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    One quibble about your opinion of Tesla. Positive hype produces high stock prices which then produces easy financing. The convertible debt of $3.6bill probably only dilutes current shareholders by 20% if its ever converted.

     

    Granted, the shareholders may be suckers when the growth slows down and the PE is still 150, but he can build a lot of infrastructure with the insanely cheap capital between now and then. I wouldn't buy any stock near these levels, but Musk may have a marginally profitable 600k/yr automotive business in a few years.
    26 Feb, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (939) | Send Message
     
    RA> My sentiments exactly. The price of AXPW is immaterial to me unless it's worthless (almost impossible) or above $1.
    26 Feb, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    JamesBBecker> If Tesla had taken advantage of its high stock price to sell equity at something approaching the market price I'd agree with your assessment.

     

    Quadrupling the long-term debt of a company that was over-leveraged to begin with is a catastrophe for common equity holders who will end up holding an empty bag if anything goes wrong. The purchasers of the new debt, on the other hand, could find that they've bought the entire Company for about 5% of its current market cap and that could work out just fine for them.
    26 Feb, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    ii,
    Thanks for the battery flow chart. Did you notice the part of the flow chart that shows going from finished vehicles to recycling to raw materials? Nice, they are going to develop an inexpensive way to recycle the batteries back to raw materials to make a complete cycle (more like complete B$ and green wash). I can hear the Teslarites already. ;-)
    27 Feb, 03:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Silldazed, Well the flow chart is certainly very very top level. Probably made for the sheeple to guide them to "greener pastures" for sure. It's fearless leaders biggest strength.
    27 Feb, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    And Axion's biggest weakness.
    27 Feb, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Something weird happened on my schwab StreetSmartEdge Trader. The total volume was 75000 shares, but the individual trades were showing about 144000 trades. I logged out and then back in and it is showing 77,300 total trades and the individual trades match.
    25 Feb, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    Tesla is up $30.00 today to $248.00! Wow!

     

    Kandi is up pretty strong too, I did not get in on the Tesla play but I am very happy right now that I got into KNDI a couple of years ago!

     

    Now all we need is a little AXPW action!
    25 Feb, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    My 'like' was for KNDI, not TSLA.

     

    I started on KNDI around $5, bought some at aroung 3 and more closer to $2.

     

    It is the one bright spot in a portfolio greatly overshadowed by one great company whose stock has been in a terrible supply/demand dynamic.

     

    D
    25 Feb, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • nogoodslacker
    , contributor
    Comments (864) | Send Message
     
    If they could sell some batteries, the supply/demand dynamic would take care of itself.
    25 Feb, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Kia Valentines Day card for all the start stop romantics on the board.

     

    http://bit.ly/1mwjNBw
    25 Feb, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Off road series electric power train. ;-I

     

    Dumb asses! <end snark>

     

    Oerlikon Fairfield introducing off-highway hybrid electric drivetrain technology; up to 30% fuel economy improvement

     

    "Not only will this system provide up to 30 percent fuel economy improvement, but depending on the application, other benefits such as electrically driven auxiliary drives and the ability to add engine start/stop technology may have more beneficial advantages."

     

    http://bit.ly/1eg0vym
    25 Feb, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1823) | Send Message
     
    Makes me wonder about how well the ePower solution would work for certain farm equipment. I realize the niche ePower has chosen is plenty large but can't help fantasizing about other applications.

     

    Being originally from Saskatchewan, I'm thinking specifically about combines that seasonally run all day long on gently rolling terrain. Not a niche worth pursuing at this time but, theoretically, could benefit from an ePower solution?

     

    D
    25 Feb, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I'd never snark a mechanical system manufacturer from Switzerland. It just isn't prudent. This is, however, an application that might benefit from the weight and extra power of the PbC.
    25 Feb, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Depending on the application however, space might be a concern.

     

    Given how ePower packaged the batteries on the sleeper cab, I'll be interested in seeing a picture of how the batteries are located on the day cab.
    25 Feb, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    Same location – bolted to the outside of the chassis between the front and rear wheels. Finding extra space for a fuel tank was a bit of a problem, but we think we have that one licked too.
    25 Feb, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    OK, Great. I'm glad you could get them in the same approx location lower on the chassis.

     

    No fuel tank tender units allowed! lol
    25 Feb, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    OT - Easy Way To Make Your PC A Lot Safer

     

    Based on this short article from CBS News, I easily changed the Administrator Rights on my PC to Standard Rights. Sounds like my computer will now be FAR more secure. Here's a snippet:

     

    "... a staggering 92 percent of all Microsoft vulnerabilities rated as "critical" could be disregarded if you configure your PC so that users didn't have administrator rights." http://cbsn.ws/1ckdBWY
    25 Feb, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    uhhh . . . that's not a full story. There are several levels of security procedures one can do to protect themselves but it takes (much like stock investing) due diligence to find the best methods (individualized) and there are multiple levels of being 'secure'. Personally, I don't trust mass media as being the source of 'best practices' when it comes to pc security. They've cried 'wolf' far too often for my taste.

     

    The single greatest weakness in pc security doesn't reside inside the computer . . .
    25 Feb, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Hi OP,
    I agree that operator malfunction is the greatest risk to computer security.
    25 Feb, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Correct. My computer knows this...

     

    And lest it forget, I keep a claw hammer as a paperweight, just in case.
    25 Feb, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Long sigh.

     

    And these ventures cause huge distraction away from realistic opportunities.

     

    Corporate Venture Perspectives: Are Most Cleantech Inventors ‘Screwed’?

     

    " Speaking at ARPA-E's energy innovation summit this morning, William Caesar, an executive with Waste Management, had some blunt words for inventors in the crowd when asked about troubles with commercialization.

     

    "They're not all screwed. A lot of them are," declared Caesar.

     

    The problem, said Caesar, has not been proving the technology -- it's been integrating the technology into existing energy or waste disposal infrastructure: "It’s not that the technology doesn’t work. It’s that the economics don’t work."

     

    "The jury is still out" on whether Waste Management's investments will pay off, he added."

     

    http://bit.ly/1kaV4B3
    25 Feb, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Seems interesting the contrast in trading between yesterday and today. It sure appears that the PIPErs are not independently functioning entities.
    25 Feb, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    The account I have with Axion is up $1,776 exactly today...

     

    INDEPENDENCE DAY
    25 Feb, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    500k volume day today.

     

    "If I thought my estimates were spot-on accurate, I'd be saying that Parsoon should be out by this afternoon. Since I know the estimates are rough, I'm thinking the worm surplus will end by mid-March."

     

    Looks like JP might have it perfect. Dr Love, do technicals today support this or is it just a pipe-dream?
    25 Feb, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Dance: No way to tell yet, but ARCA was unusually passive today and even exited early. What's really strange is that we had late-day strength, as if buyers got tired of waiting and started taking out the asks from ~14:46 onward. That spurred bids increasing too.

     

    I wonder if it's related to tomorrow being one of those measurement period days. Thanks to John's spreadsheet, it might be worth going back over some prior times to see if there's any correlation.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    HTL> The end of day 1/2 cent pop was quite large given the usual trading ranges we're now seeing. First thing I thought of was that maybe somebody wanted to paint the closing price up for some reason.

     

    It didn't cost them much being I think a 10000 share trade to take out the ask. (~$975 versus ~$925 at the bid)
    25 Feb, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    If you go to http://www.otcbb.com you can get a quote and select the "Depth/LII" option which gives you time and trade data for the 30 most recent trades. There were four trades in the last 11 minutes at $0.97x for a total of 38,500 shares.
    25 Feb, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    RA> I was watching the close, and I saw a 10k bid move steadily up in the final minutes (getting as close as .0965). I think somebody wanted the shares cheaper and finally just hit the ask.
    25 Feb, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> Thanks for that info. That would not be a whale painting the tape then. Good to know.

     

    I still have a couple of buy orders in at yet another attempt to pick the bottom. (My bottom picking attempts over the last 12 months are nothing but sore laments now!)
    25 Feb, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: It was more of a surge and that 1/2 penny pop was just someone's determined effort to take out the asks. Note the change in the VWAP in the last three lines.

     

    12:40-14:35: 078946 shrs, 12.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0929, 041.1% buys
    14:46-14:59: 095500 shrs, 15.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0946, 078.5% buys
    15:00-15:15: 092500 shrs, 14.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0945, 026.5% buys
    15:49-15:59: 082500 shrs, 13.04% of vol, VWAP $0.0954, 078.2% buys

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: BTW, in that last surge were these "buys", 15:49/50.
    $0.0974 8500
    $0.0974 10000
    $0.0974 10000
    25 Feb, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: ATDF was the one that made the moves AFAICT. I didn't catch them all, but I do have ATDF at $0.095 bid at 15:57. They had been making most of the moves on the bid all day, although CDEL and NITE did step ahead a few times along with BTIG infrequently.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Thank you. I wonder why when I looked at the volume change in the last 10 or 20 minutes I got the impression only another 10000 shares traded vs 82500. My error. I don't watch it as closely as maybe I should before commenting.

     

    Buy % is looking strong.
    25 Feb, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "Looks like JP might have it perfect. Dr Love, do technicals today support this or is it just a pipe-dream? "

     

    Could be, dance. OTOH, trade volume price behavior today could be explained just as easily by any number of other factors. One possibility that comes to mind is PIPEr decisions to hold shares remaining from previous note conversions until Friday (the last trading day before the next pre-installment) when they have a chance of driving the VWAP for the day below that of the low 20 day average.
    25 Feb, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    I feared that possibility, except that the PIPEr would have been better served by waiting closer to the end, and also all of them would have to be colluding.

     

    Is it more plausible all 4 simply sold the max they could per day, and thus ran out at the same time?
    25 Feb, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: "Buy % is looking strong. "

     

    1:1.09 (47.88% "buys").

     

    That's a good number! Unfortunately, it fits a pattern of low volume and very few larger trades. Average trade size today is 9735 vs 2/11-2/24: 10621, 5480, 11534, 19865, 10722, 16115, 15305, 20402, 18532.

     

    This tells us something - exactly what is debatable.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: "until Friday (the last trading day before the next pre-installment) when they have a chance of driving the VWAP for the day below that of the low 20 day average"

     

    "Great minds ... " make the same mistakes! :-))

     

    I've been thinking along those same lines. But they don't have to hold many shares because they can also short up to the quantity they are long. If volume is low, which it usually is if they aren't hammering, wouldn't take much at all to move price.

     

    Did you clone my TFH? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Ranma: I believe it more likely they are doing buying as well to accomplish what they want with price.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    HTL> Perhaps it validates what JP has been saying, that in the absence of big sellers the buyers will indeed start moving up through the asks. If correct we could be near a historic bottom.

     

    Re: average trade size -- sometimes averages get skewed by the outliers. Averaging after tossing out the highest and lowest data points might reveal something straight average does not.
    25 Feb, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    R.A; In my blog I daily report on larger trades (>=15K) and related stats.

     

    Today had very few, relatively. If I throw out the extrems it gets worse because today extremes are 22 (that's 22 shares) and 40K. Sans the 22 and 40K we get 3,309.

     

    Also, I don't like to discard trades ... re-phrase

     

    I don't like to treat trades as exceptional unless they have something which skews things badly. E.g. one trade of 1K at $0.1039 when all other trades were $0.0960 or lower, like yesterday.

     

    A ~$4K-$5K trade is not really all that exceptional and it's price was in the normal range for today - $0.0946.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    P.S. Having said that I very often, especially recently, in my blog have been examining what results might be sans exceptional trades to try and better assess what intelligence is carried rather than just data.
    25 Feb, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say the PIPErs are out of shares for the month, and thus won't get a true up as the price recovers. The reason is simple: without collusion, every PIPEr is forced to sell as quickly as possible, or else another PIPEr will get a better price than they. The true up clause benefits most whoever sells first at the higher prices. Thus all of them would sell at maximum allowed per day and then run out at the same time.

     

    We can see in the past that the last trading days in each month actually hasn't had any drops. In fact some months saw a price recovery in the last days.

     

    http://bit.ly/WwW0ow

     

    We are definitely primed for positive news :)
    26 Feb, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> I'll have to disagree. You're right in theory but the PIPErs are funds who I'm sure only have a small % of fund assets in Axion. Since they are down to the dregs left to sell, it doesn't pay for them to fuss over price for the little morsel that is left. Not worth their time in terms of absolute dollars that might be gained.

     

    My guess is that they give their brokers or MMs considerable latitude over placing orders on their behalf and while the amount of money being fussed over might be significant to the broker, it's not the broker's money so he's not that concerned.

     

    Also, an alternative theory on why the bids seem stronger lately and the price stabilizing -- call it the "Petersen factor" theory. I don't necessarily believe this, but it's possible that since John has made a point of strongly calling for a bottom, something I don't think he's ever done before, his followers are emboldened to buy now and hit the asks rather than wait for the sellers to hit their bids. They think this really could be the bottom as he makes a pretty persuasive argument. Perception becomes reality, voila.
    26 Feb, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    RA, I believe your "Peterson factor" theory does have a reasonable probability of holding water. For brief periods of time around certain events, I think some will add or subtract depending on what has been shared and the pursuant expectations concerning anticipated changes in the pricing of, the stock.

     

    Again, I don't think this effect plays out over long periods of time.
    26 Feb, 06:59 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    RA> It certainly looks like you may be right about the funds simply executing established policies instead of trying to shake every penny out of every transaction. It will be fascinating to see what happens when Elvis leaves the building.

     

    Once the first PIPEr is gone, I think the dynamic may change. Consider a pack of wolves with four adults that each want 15 pounds of meat per day. If the pack can only take down 50 pounds of game, the wolves have to fight with each other while protecting their prize from scavengers. If you only have three adults, they can all eat their fill while leaving 5 pounds for the scavengers.
    26 Feb, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4598) | Send Message
     
    Keep touting this idea JP, if history repeats itself as in the past 3 raises....you will need axionista's to buy, buy, buy the rest of these PIPER shares to make way for the next 100 million shares coming in a few months...

     

    then....you can start all over...
    26 Feb, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    History only repeats itself with people who are incapable of learning from past mistakes. While aggressive sellers can push the stock price pendulum to extreme levels of undervaluation, the laws of economic gravity will not be mocked. The PIPErs are busily selling the last of their shares. When they're done they will be nothing but an unpleasant memory and the stock price will have to move to a level where investors who've been buying for the last four years are willing to sell en masse.

     

    I have no idea what that level is, but we'll find out soon enough.
    26 Feb, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    "the stock price will have to move to a level where investors who've been buying for the last four years are willing to sell en masse. I have no idea what that level is, but we'll find out soon enough. "

     

    Between ten and eleven cents. Haha, just kidding. I hope you are right JP, but not before I pick up some more shares at 8 cents.
    26 Feb, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    " The PIPErs are busily selling the last of their shares."

     

    Maybe, and maybe not. It remains to be seen how many PIPE senior notes are left to convert.
    26 Feb, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    RA> Two things the "Petersen" factor doesn't account for: the low volume we had yesterday and what looks like today also. Second is the end of month price stability/recovery pattern for the last year since the PIPErs.
    26 Feb, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, Someone else mentioned something about this but I'll present it as a possibility again. Axion investors have been beaten for so long, including past times when theories about possible reduced selling pressure didn't pan out, that they are gun shy about thinking things might change. I know I feel like we've been climbing this hill forever and I'm a relative newbie compared to more than a few here. I suspect it might take some event or further confirmation before those on board or looking to join in believe we have crested the hill and are in for a change. Then again, it's not difficult given the terrain, to see the next climb.
    26 Feb, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    I agree, and was only saying the Petersen effect doesn't argue that the PIPErs aren't out of shares this month. I expect some false starts before the train really gets moving.
    26 Feb, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, Agreed. Could be they are so close to the end some might try gaming a little with their last few pence.
    26 Feb, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> I should clarify. My "Petersen factor" theory just says that right about now due to JP calling a bottom this month I expect that some of his followers believing we've hit bottom are getting bolder in bidding by just climbing up the asks to ensure they get their shares. It's like the dog believing the newspaper smacks are over.

     

    During the last year that I have watched AXPW it seemed far more prevalent that a buyer lay down a bid below the high bid and just wait/hope for it to get filled.

     

    HTL said yesterday the buy % of 48% was strong. That's actually less than half of the transactions, yet we consider that strong! (I rest my case.)
    26 Feb, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: :the buy % of 48% was strong. That's actually less than half of the transactions, yet we consider that strong! (I rest my case.) "

     

    For even better understanding, consider that we commonly saw 60% as *normal* behavior when we thought financing was over, orders were pending, ...

     

    Peek at my one-year blog and look at the buy% averages and such for the visual impact.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Feb, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    HTL> I believe the time is coming when it will become clear that PbC technology rocks; that it will be economic and sell well.

     

    When the market believes this I think the buy % will soar along with the share price.
    26 Feb, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "Petersen effect" or no, "end of month price stability/recovery pattern" and tapered volume would be a logical objective of investors looking to offload a large influx of new shares within a few days as PIPE notes begin to dry up. PIPErs don't have much to gain from getting another 5% - 10% discount to VWAP on the last $1.0 mil to $1.5 mil of convertible notes, particularly when 200 million shares are outstanding they can convert and hold just under 10 million shares as a group without breeching the PIPE agreements ownership threshold.
    26 Feb, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (334) | Send Message
     
    Indy

     

    Independent yes

     

    But doing the same basic thing

     

    JP has it right... this time

     

    With respect we owe a great deal to JP and HTL for their diligent analysis that I expect to finally bear some fruit

     

    Still need an annoucement

     

    Good things happen in 3s

     

    Could be dynamic late March and though tths summer, (2014 hopefully)

     

    Surely management are about to pull some rabbits out of the hat
    25 Feb, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I think it's too early to declare an armistice, much less a victory. I'm very confident that the day is quite near. The only way we'll be able to nail down the timing is when we can see it clearly in the rear view mirror.
    25 Feb, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca, Agreed concerning John's and HTL's efforts. We're truly blessed having them here as interested parties and sharing their respective efforts.

     

    I think it will in fact be very interesting to witness the transitional phase from selling irrespective of any new information to a perhaps more balanced market approach.

     

    I do however think that to realize the returns Axionista's are hoping for sales remain the key. Just don't see how it makes sense w/o seeing paths to sales.
    25 Feb, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    For the first time ever a truthful statement without the usual embelishments:

     

    "I think it's too early to declare an armistice, much less a victory. I'm very confident that the day is quite near. The only way we'll be able to nail down the timing is when we can see it clearly in the rear view mirror."

     

    Lets say axion goes to a $1.00, will you even be at breakeven JP?
    25 Feb, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (652) | Send Message
     
    Freya,
    "For the first time ever a truthful statement without the usual embelishments:"

     

    JP has stated many times that the inflection point could only be recognized with certainty in the rear view mirror.
    25 Feb, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I don't know that I'd call it even, but I'll be close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades.
    25 Feb, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Jveal, JP has stated Multiple times That This Will be the Year that AXPW becomes a 5-10 bagger and he will be smiling alll the way to the Bank.

     

    When Tesla was at $30 and Axion around $.25,
    he stated unilaterally, (paraphrased): What would you rather own? An overpriced stock which can only go down (tesla) or a stock which Will be a 5-10 Bagger within 12 months (Axion)???

     

    Around 18 months later, Axion is down another 60% while Tesla is around $250.

     

    He's been making these "Just wait another 6-12 month predictions" EVERY Year.

     

    And I've been waiting for the chart to improve since Axion was over $2. Over the years, I have learned to ignore John's predictions inre Axion.
    26 Feb, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    It warms the cockles of my heart to know that you'll be ignoring me and avoiding Axion like the plague. If I were in your shoes, I'd probably double your Tesla position.
    26 Feb, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    What a huge "See You In Tesla."
    26 Feb, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    "I'll be close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades."

     

    and atomic blasts . . .
    27 Feb, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1462) | Send Message
     
    I have a position in another stock that's probably beyond the blast zone, obieep, so I can relate. Good luck with that. Heh.
    27 Feb, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    "Cool"..........Wright... drivetrain plus Lith battery combined with a Capstone Microturbine might well corner the Trucking Market.

     

    I don't have the link HTL.

     

    "Cool" Tesla sells its Battery on the open market.
    25 Feb, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Freya: Keep in mind that right now Wrightspeed only does class 4-6 trucks, more like local delivery stuff.

     

    I don't have the specs on their GTD (Geared Traction Drive) which is a big part of their drive train and responsible for a lot of their flexibility and performance.

     

    I don;t know if it's heavy enough for class 7 & 8 because it can be picked up by one man. Could probably be scaled w/o much problem, but they'll need to be successful in their current target market first to have fund for further development directed to other markets.

     

    The fact that they are using Li-ion is one *potential* weak point, which others can describe more succinctly than I. as it's DCA is not as strong for re-generative braking purposes. Also more sensitive to environmental conditions and likely a shorter lifetime than some alternatives. Bu it's strength is energy capacity, which may be the overriding factor in Wrightspeed's design - more so than other considerations.

     

    With Ian Wright being the bright person he is, I wouldn't be surprised to see other chemistry considered when he's no longer dependent on DOE and CA state funding - two places where Li-ion is the magical incantation to obtain funding, such as the new $6MM dose just recently acquired from CA.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1a6PZqB

     

    "We're preparing for a very steep climb in top line sales"

     

    Just re-watching the January video to get a better feel of where TG is coming from.

     

    Could it be this comment stems from an expectation of an upcoming major design win?...
    25 Feb, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    @Ranma... ""We're preparing for a very steep climb in top line sales" - Sir Thomas Granville...

     

    So does that mean "300% YoY Revenue" gains????
    26 Feb, 03:41 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    Where is the disconnect? Four times in five months with his predictions ... either something is coming or he is delusional and dishonest.
    26 Feb, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Usually I think of "...d d..." as "due diligence", but yes, "delusional and dishonest" could be another outcome of the "due diligence". All this has to lead to some sort of common sense conclusion.
    26 Feb, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    "delusional and dishonest"

     

    Maybe and/or would fit better because I think it's far less likely that it's dishonesty.

     

    I do think he shares the cards he's dealt in a less than audience enlightening way. This meaning that when he shares status updates he skips the black and only presents the white. Hard to get a full picture that way. Is that a "Snow Job"? Human nature in such a position.

     

    Delusions of grandeur err Granville? ;-p
    26 Feb, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    While I don't detect absolute certainty in his words, keep in mind that TG said this to some local reporter. He didn't have to say that. It's different from saying things to your stockholder base to tread water.
    26 Feb, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, do you really think he was speaking to Axion stockholders only? He was dangling a hypothetical prize in front of every Philadelphia broadcast area resident in hopes of underpinning AXPW share price in the wake of a "price failure" and absence of sales to report.
    26 Feb, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
     
    I too have been preparing for a very steep climb in my investment portfolio!!

     

    ;-))
    26 Feb, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    More than anything I'm ready for a steep climb in the thermometer. Talk about a winter from hell. Worst in memory.
    26 Feb, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "Worst in memory. "

     

    :-) Perhaps in your memory. Not mine.
    26 Feb, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    Part of the personal "worst" winter has been simple misfortune. For example, the bit of thaw we did get created snow melt that drained to my old sunken foundation of my garage. Combined with a leaking skylight these things have conspired to create a veritable skating rink now inside the garage! What a mess when that melts, plus the new snowmelt draining there. Of course the electric opener failed too so I have to park the car and walk around through drifts to the service door every time coming and going to open and close the car door.

     

    Been a winter where seemingly everything that can go wrong has. I guess I can be thankful the furnace and water heater have soldiered on without failing, but an awful lot of things are going wrong like the proverbial boat springing leaks and the sailor not having enough thumbs to stick in the holes. So the weather has been a major downer but other things too.
    26 Feb, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "Of course the electric opener failed too so I have to park the car and walk around through drifts to the service door every time coming and going to open and close the car door."

     

    Sort of amplifies cold, wet winter for sure. Hope conditions improve for you sooner rather than later.
    26 Feb, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    Thanks D-inv. I bought a new opener a while back but I won't install it until we get warmer weather in the unheated garage. Maybe I should though as this time warmer weather means the skating rink will turn into a pond.

     

    Similar troubles indoors. Lots of plumbing problems this year aggravated by major complications in fixing them. Sigh.
    26 Feb, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    RA, You sure you didn't just freeze the door to the floor given the water intrusion? The current limiter in the motor drive circuit should have protected the mechanical side of the door opener.

     

    Also, there should be a mechanical latch that is easy to use to separate the electric opener from the door. Since the springs offset the load it should be not too difficult to open manually. This can also be done to confirm if the door is frozen to the floor or not. You can do this until you get the opener fixed if in fact it has failed.

     

    PS, Don't drive into the garage too fast if you have ice on the floor!!!
    26 Feb, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    inde> Thanks! Door frozen to floor may have triggered a reset type error but the memory stop at the top failed and the door smashed into the opener. It did stop then of course but opener won't move at all now. Possibly I can unplug and reboot and get it reset but actually the remotes are also failing so it's kinda moot. Remotes work intermittently but at reduced range so often I have had to go around to the service door anyway. After 13 years the opener's time has come. A new one is bought and just remains to be installed along with a dozen other fixtures, vanity, glass block window, paint jobs, etc I have sitting around.

     

    Got an ancient large iron kitchen sink that's kinda cool. Just wanted to just replace the wall mount style faucet last week; should normally be an hour's job. Unfortunately the steel pipe nipples were rusted in the threads so much that I couldn't trust them. Didn't protrude enough to grab with a pipe wrench so I had to bust the heavy sink out from the wall and moldings and tile and get behind it to replace the 2 pipe nipples. Bottom line, instead of an hour's job for a faucet it will be 12-16 by the time it's all caulked and touched up with paint. Yesterday, leaving the sink in frustration, I was fixing a toilet with a weak flush. No sooner had this toilet acted up when the upstairs toilet decided to leak at the base - yuk. So I just bought a new wax seal for that job.

     

    Truly the house from hell that is relentless in throwing me challenge after challenge in rapid succession. Only mentioning a small fraction of the current to do list if you can believe it!

     

    Sorry to bore the bejeezus out of this board with the bellyaching about my mundane problems but at least it's cathartic for me. Thanks for the patience.
    26 Feb, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    RA, Yikes, All manageable jobs but when you get into the old stuff and peel back the layers you find more and more.

     

    Anyway, Good luck!
    26 Feb, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    I simply have to share this. My neighbor 2 doors down has a Ford Thunderbird that is his baby and drives it year round. It is Rear wheel drive and living in Wisconsin we have a bunch of snow. He refuses to shovel his driveway until its 6-8 inches deep and the driveway slopes down from the house to the road. Therefore when it snows I've seen him back into his neighbor across the street and then gun it to get enough speed to get into his garage.

     

    Well, I missed seeing it in person but this weekend went by and the bottom half of his garage door is destroyed and he's dented and scratched the hell out of his hood. He must have made a run without the garage fully up and got there too quick.

     

    I have no pics but its funny.
    26 Feb, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    But when one spends the winter in the Phoenix, AZ area, one does not have these problems. My problem is getting all the lemons and oranges off my trees in the back yard. Hmmm!
    26 Feb, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    OOOOOO Larry,

     

    That's mean.....funny, but mean!
    27 Feb, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    Oil predicament: http://bit.ly/1o4atn9
    and: http://bit.ly/1o4avvm
    25 Feb, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Tahoe: Good links, especially the second on "can you ... without fossil fuels".

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    25 Feb, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    Anyone not fairly conversant with oil supply and demand could do worse than watch the oil predicament link.
    25 Feb, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1211) | Send Message
     
    tahoe, Thanks for the link!
    25 Feb, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    More lithium ion.

     

    Beech Ridge Energy Plans Battery Storage System at West Virginia Wind Farm

     

    "The ESD will have a combined nominal output of up to 32.4 MW, comprised of eighteen 1.8-MW modules consisting of lithium-ion batteries, inverters, transformers and cooling systems. The lithium-ion batteries used in the ESD are the same kind of batteries used worldwide in a variety of applications, including cordless power tools and battery powered or hybrid vehicles. The batteries are grouped into battery packs or modules that are loaded into trays and the trays are mounted in floor-to-ceiling racks inside a standard shipping container."

     

    http://bit.ly/1mxMSfW
    25 Feb, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    This is utterly disappointing, to me.
    25 Feb, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    Estimated cost of the lithium ion ESD is $20M for 32.4MW of storage - seemingly with the electronics included.

     

    How much is that per MW? Approximately $620K per MW?
    25 Feb, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (362) | Send Message
     
    Not disappointing to me at all. I consider a couple things;
    This market is going to be HUGE. I'll settle for a piece of it.

     

    Of course since this is lithium, it needs a cooling system as stated. What happens when that cooling system fails for any reason, and think about the maintainence of that system. All adds to the total cost of ownership.
    And as John stated so well a couple years ago in a SA article, "cheap beats cool in the energy storage sector"

     

    We'll be just fine
    25 Feb, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4418) | Send Message
     
    The question everyone here wonders about is; When?
    25 Feb, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (495) | Send Message
     
    $620 per KW. Nowhere does the article mention the time component so the number isn't helpful given my limited understanding. It does seem to provide some validation for the durability and size of the PJM marketplace though, which is good news.

     

    Additionally, I think it's now safe to say that PbC is now well enough known that Beech Ridge must have been aware of it but still chose LI.
    25 Feb, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    "Additionally, I think it's now safe to say that PbC is now well enough known that Beech Ridge must have been aware of it but still chose LI."

     

    I doubt it was a detailed decision making process between LI and PbC. Designing systems take time - a long time. If Axion hasn't been aggressively marketing the PbC at least a year ago, Beech Ridge wouldn't even have known about it when they chose their system architecture. Furthermore engineers sometimes have the tendency to design what they already know, and lithium has been around longer.
    26 Feb, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    Note the pricing is in per kilowatt of power not per kilowatt-hour of energy storage. To compare, if we stick to our 1 kilowatt nominal value per 12V PbC (100 amps out at 10V) and $360 per battery, just for the batteries alone our PbC price doesn't look too bad...
    26 Feb, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    I hope that the next round of financing doesn't leave our little company an economic zombie: http://bit.ly/1c6jOuX
    25 Feb, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Korean Rail Operators Expand Deployment of Maxwell Technologies Ultracapacitors for High-Efficiency Braking Energy Recuperation Systems

     

    http://prn.to/1mGAf5M
    25 Feb, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    It's good to see the Koreans expanding their use of Maxwell's ultracapacitors because (1) the installations prove the economics of the application, (2) the volume of space required for an ultracapacitor installation is huge, and (3) the cost of an ultracapacitor installation is enormous unless the installation is cycling hundreds of times per day.
    26 Feb, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    And yet I have to agree with Dr. Buiel. Why isn't Axion finding its way into any of these applications on some trial basis yet? Apps like this example or things like windmill blade pitch control which is another example he used IIRC. Perfect apps for PbC.

     

    Maybe Axion wasn't aggressive in some of these areas because they were busy preparing for the whale dinner they thought was coming before now?
    26 Feb, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I think it's simpler than that.

     

    Every inquiry from a potential customer requires an investment decision. When the call comes in, the first question a company like ePower or Axion has to answer is "Can I afford to follow up? Do I have enough human, technical and financial resources to pursue this potential opportunity?"

     

    When you have limited resources and capital is hard to come by or expensive, you get very selective because chasing every lead is a great way to find yourself behind the 8-ball.

     

    ePower has had several inquiries from overseas but we don't have piles of money to develop new versions of our drivetrain to satisfy regulatory requirements in other countries. So our response to date has been pretty straightforward. If you make a big enough investment in our stock we'll use a portion of your money to develop a product that suits your needs. Otherwise we'll stay on our chosen path and continue working on projects that we can afford to pursue with our available funding.

     

    We've bought about $40,000 of batteries from Axion but we've probably received a multiple of that number in engineering and technical support. From the perspective of the customer, Axion has made a big investment in our project that it hopes to recoup from future sales.

     

    If Axion could sell stock at a rich valuation it could afford to hire hordes of marketing and engineering support staff to pursue far-flung opportunities with multi-year sales cycles. I have a hard time believing that current stockholders would be very happy with a 2x, 10x or 100x increase in current SG&A because Axion was chasing projects that wouldn't turn into money for at least a couple years.
    26 Feb, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    I cannot argue your points. I guess I just see more potential in certain markets that suit Axion that would have probably delivered far more love in their commercial infancy than I'd ever have seen in automotive given common starting points.

     

    Then again it could be that some things didn't materialize earlier on because it took Axion far longer to get to the point they are at now than the various parties expected.
    26 Feb, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    The hardest part of deciding to invest in a potential customer is that you make your decision on Day One. Once you've made a decision you have to follow the path or abandon the opportunity.

     

    The first two paths Axion chose were automotive and rail. They were both the business equivalent of a pro scout approaching a high-school pitcher and saying "I'm going to make you a star, but you'll have to prove you're good enough for the big leagues." Once the decisions were made the only way to add new paths was to hire new marketing and engineering support and explain why SG&A spending was going parabolic.

     

    I'm really glad that I haven't had to make the decisions Axion has faced over the last four years, but I know my time in the barrel is coming soon with ePower.
    26 Feb, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Understood. I will however say that I was perplexed every time TG showed frustration with the speed of automotive. He should have done more research and known better.

     

    Rail, I don't know. Maybe I should have researched and known better! :-(
    26 Feb, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    AFAIK BMW started testing the PbC in the summer of 2009 because we knew by December that they had finished their preliminary work and wanted to go to the next steps.

     

    In a September 2010 presentation at the ELBC in Istanbul, Renault explained that their typical validation cycle for conventional starter batteries from a new supplier was 24 months. The first six months were devoted to performance testing and the last 18 months focused on supplier suitability.

     

    I was not at all surprised when Axion announced plans to develop second-generation electrode fabrication line, but I think everyone underestimated the complexity of qualifying a totally new technology for use in next generation stop-start systems. I know I did.
    26 Feb, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4598) | Send Message
     
    going back 4 years in todays high tech world is akin to comparable to 18th century.
    and leads me to ask .. 4 years and still no sign of adoption?
    Does AXPW have another 3-4 years ?
    26 Feb, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Well, I guess at this point it's all water over the dam irrespective of the outcome. IMO given the timing of the industries roll out for more advanced SS and Axion's introduction to a potential partner, the next 12 months or so look pretty darn critical relative to potential automotive inclusion for PbC. This doesn't mean it couldn't possibly come later but the near term looks like it's the most critical timing if BMW is serious.

     

    Pretty key for current investors as well.
    26 Feb, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    If ePower's third-generation drivetrain delivers the fuel economy we expect and the trucking industry responds as we think it will, predicting the pace of triple-secret progress in the automotive and rail industries will be a good deal less important than it seems today.

     

    It will be major news if ePower delivers 60% to 80% of the efficiency gains Cummins and Peterbilt are touting for their SuperTruck. I don't want to beat the titans at their own game, but getting close with a repowered legacy chassis that doesn't have all the fancy aerodynamics and other efficiency enhancements would a ton of fun. While there's no way to say for sure, I'm willing to bet that ePower will announce hard results before BMW and NS say anything.
    26 Feb, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • 42itus1
    , contributor
    Comments (214) | Send Message
     
    The big question now is, should AXION keep trying to enter automotive and expending any further resources to this 'Black Hole' niche.
    26 Feb, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    LT> Four years may be forever in your "high tech" world but its a heartbeat in the battery world where the time to market on innovations is measured in decades.

     

    42itus1> The fact that the PbC is still in the game after four years of brutal validation and testing by some of the best companies in the world strikes me as solid proof that the brass ring is within reach. These markets are not black holes. They're superstars that will remain wrapped in black tarps until the decision makers decide that its time to talk.
    26 Feb, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Young
    , contributor
    Comments (939) | Send Message
     
    Well what kind of efficiency is possible with both a hybrid drivetrain and the economy measures of the SuperTruck?
    26 Feb, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    The aerodynamic enhancements, tag axels, low rolling resistance tires and other non-drivetrain technologies used in the SuperTruck will be equally beneficial if they're added to a chassis with our drivetrain. Unfortunately many non-drivetrain enhancements can only be implemented in a newly built tractor. For now, we see the retrofit market as a much bigger opportunity than the OEM market.
    26 Feb, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    Pat Y ... Another question is whether tandem, diesel fuel retrofits can be economically effective.

     

    ePower's approach requires replacement of the drivetrain and saves the most fuel by downsizing the engine.

     

    APGI offers a duel fuel approach (diesel, NG (CNG, LNG)) that can be retrofitted to tractors without displacement of existing drive train components and I believe less expensive than an ePower configuration. Question is, Can an APGI duel fuel system be used with an ePower drive train?
    26 Feb, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    It would be difficult and heavy to add an ePower drivetrain and an alternative fuel system to the same tractor. While our drivetrain will work with any fuel, the tanks and other hardware required for LNG would be a tight fit and CNG would be darned near impossible.

     

    While it's still early in the game, NG fuel systems seem to be getting the most traction in fixed base operations that have the ability to refuel at a home depot and it doesn't seem to be getting much traction in long-haul. Given the size of the overall market, however, there's plenty of room for different alternatives.

     

    FWIW, Cummins has suspended work on it's 15 liter long haul NG engine because they're worried about fueling infrastructure and market acceptance issues.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ftoeXn
    27 Feb, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    Looked for an announcement concerning LNG in trucking. Seems some of the claims are in fact local delivery advantages. Also note their comments concerning this area of Cali.

     

    C.R. England Replacing Some Trucks with LNG Powered Units

     

    http://bit.ly/1mGEbQx
    27 Feb, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    John -

     

    With an understanding that target dates slip, any new targets as to when ePower will have the first truck in the hands of a fleet operator?

     

    ** I won't be as caustic in my opinion of ePower unless you are saying the same thing in a couple years.
    27 Feb, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I'd expect the first fleet demonstration sometime in March. We're very pleased with the way the tractor is performing but there's still some dialing in to do on getting everything optimized. Thankfully all our primary component suppliers are bending over backwards to provide the support we need.
    27 Feb, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update. You may have answered this question, but will you have monitoring software on the truck capable of feeding ePower real time data on mpg data, etc?
    27 Feb, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3881) | Send Message
     
    "It would be difficult and heavy to add an ePower drivetrain and an alternative fuel system to the same tractor. "

     

    Likely valid point for the present and could remain that way. OTOH, ANG options have risen above the commercial horizon in a few applications, reducing tank psi capacities to ~500 psi versus CNG requirement of 3,500 psi.
    27 Feb, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure how much data collection and communication hardware we'll leave in the truck when we turn it over to a fleet operator because too much granularity is counter-productive. From the perspective of a potential customer they just want to see a series of trips with summary route, weight, speed and fuel consumption instead of detail at six second intervals.

     

    Our current testing, in contrast, involves a huge amount of real time data collection. We've literally installed a PC in the tractor that runs parallel analytics and data correlations for the engine, generator and battery pack, along with a full suite of GPS data and streaming video. With any luck we'll be able to cobble together a reasonably interesting video that shows how the components work together during acceleration, steady state cruising, deceleration and idle periods.

     

    The primary users of the system will be engineers from Cummins, Marathon and Axion as they help us optimize the system integration, but it may be interesting for normal people too. We know we don't want those kinds of electronic distractions on board when a potential customer is moving a load of freight from Cincinnati to Chicago.
    27 Feb, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4418) | Send Message
     
    >JP ... Just how normal?
    27 Feb, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    Interesting, looking forward to seeing results as you are able to release them.
    27 Feb, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Now THAT was funny!
    27 Feb, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    Normal in a quirky Axionista sort of way I guess.
    27 Feb, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • Barood
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    JP,

     

    Based on your observation, what is the most stringent PBC variable under risk in this environment. is it energy, power or current flow?

     

    Plus do you think AXION has a backup plan in case the batteries fail under the empirical test?
    27 Feb, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    At this point the only open question in our minds is how long the PbC will stand up under our duty cycle. Of course that's the $64,000 question for all our components.

     

    We've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the batteries and so far they've exceeded all our expectations. Axion is collecting detailed charge and discharge data on every trip and their confidence level seems to be climbing because the warranty periods we're discussing today are a good deal longer than the ones we were discussing a few months ago.

     

    The acid test for our drivetrain and the batteries will come when we put the tractor into the hands of a fleet operator who uses it to haul freight for 10 or 20 hours a day. We're not claiming victory yet, but we remain optimistic.
    27 Feb, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    One question I'd love to know the answer to is has the PbC (a production version, not one of the earlier prototype flavors) ever in fact been driven or aged to failure thus far? What did that end of life failure mode look like? Was it in fact the positive electrode that gave out? I think we've seen on some of the SS tests that very late in life the DCA number finally starts to decay, but again, just curious what a dead/failed/worn out PbC actually looks like...

     

    Accordingly John, I think you and ePower should make it a mission in life (at least one of them) to kill the PbC... just to see if it can indeed be done. ;)

     

    Failing that, when fleet operators finally get a hold of the truck, it's going to be hugely telling. I mean if they can't kill one, then maybe no one can. I can't wait.
    27 Feb, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I'll be quite happy if we can get 4,000 to 8,000 hours out of a battery pack. Anything more would just be greedy.
    27 Feb, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    so . . . when does the 'kitchen sink' get hurled?
    27 Feb, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    We're saving that honor for the fleet operators, since they have the only opinions that really matter.
    27 Feb, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like an opportunity to do some back-of-envelope calculating on a slow Thursday night.....

     

    Assume the low end of the range 4000 hours.
    Assume average speed during the hours: 40 mph
    Assume diesel costs $3.50.

     

    Assume ePower gives 10 mpg, while the equivalent truck provides 6 mpg.

     

    So... Fuel used in 4000 hrs is 40 * 4000 / 10 = 16,000 gallons.

     

    Fuel used in old truck 4000 hrs is 40 * 4000 / 6 = 26,666

     

    Fuel Savings = 10,666 gallons which saves: $37300.

     

    If the batteries cost $20,000 and the rest of the drivetrain has to be rebuilt every 4 battery packs, that's just barely compelling - but doable. Hopefully the batteries make it to 6000 hrs, that's a savings of $56,000. A much more compelling proposition.
    27 Feb, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    For long haul trucks the average speed is closer to 60 mph for 120,000 miles over the course of a 2,000 driver's work year. (50 weeks at 40 hrs.)
    27 Feb, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    which gives something like $60,000 over a 4,000
    hour service life. sounds much better.

     

    Edit: sorry, I assumed a fuel cost of $3.75/gal. It's $56,000 at $3.50. Nailed it, JBB. lol
    27 Feb, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    It's also worth noting that the generator, drive motor and control electronics will probably last for the remaining service life of the chassis. So the second rebuild will be a good deal cheaper.
    27 Feb, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    The second rebuild is anticipated to be just batteries correct?

     

    As an aside. Any thoughts on collecting the used PbC batteries from trucking service and using them for some level of energy storage for a period of time before recycling. Would they have enough value for this? Just a point of interest.
    27 Feb, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    We're hoping for 4,000 to 8,000 hours on the batteries compared to 16,000 hours on the engine and transmission and 40,000 hours on the generator, drive motor and electronics.
    27 Feb, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    We also have to wonder what the end of life for the batteries is going to feel like to the truck... will it be a gradual fade of DCA and power available for accel boost and hills? Will it manifest in slightly poorer mpg, rather than a more abrupt failure? Also, if it's just a battery swap which would be required, such a swap doesn't necessarily have to line up in time with a full overhaul does it? Just sounds like with any luck there may be a fair amount of flexibility on the part of the operator to decide if/at what point he wants to pay for a fresh set of batteries...
    27 Feb, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    We won't have a feel for those questions until we see how and when the batteries start to fail.
    27 Feb, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2480) | Send Message
     
    John,

     

    By your metric does that mean at 4000 and 8000 hrs, you expect the batteries to last between 2 and 4 years respectively?
    27 Feb, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    Ideally we'd have a two to four year battery life which works out to 240,000 to 480,000 miles. At the risk of emphasizing the obvious, that's a great useful life for a hybrid vehicle battery.
    27 Feb, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1015) | Send Message
     
    "At the risk of emphasizing the obvious, that's a great useful life for a hybrid vehicle battery."

     

    And then, at EOL in the truck you can still use the battery for solar / wind power backup :p
    28 Feb, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I'm not a believer in second life, but you will be able to recycle the battery and that's a good thing.
    28 Feb, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1015) | Send Message
     
    John, ":p" means this
    http://bit.ly/1loXEah
    28 Feb, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I understand, but I can't resist the temptation to repeatedly make the point that lead-acid is the ONLY battery technology where the materials recovered in recycling are worth more than the recycling costs.
    28 Feb, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    Thought this graphic was rather dense in truths. And it looks like, according to it, we're "smart money" ;)

     

    http://bit.ly/1ejUDUJ

     

    T, on the other hand, can probably be found motoring up the graph somewhere, uh, more to the right. But I sure hope thems come with sticky tires on 'em, 'cause looks like it might be getting steep...
    26 Feb, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    48
    Could not get the link to work
    26 Feb, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    I like that graphic, but your link didn't work well. Hopefully this version from Wikipedia will work better.

     

    http://bit.ly/sZ0Yzn
    26 Feb, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    That's the one, thanks JP. And apologies Al. Interesting though. double checked and my original link works fine for me; using latest chrome on win 8.1...
    26 Feb, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3296) | Send Message
     
    figgered it out. I rebooted and then tried a clean click from my link here. no joy. 404orbidden. So then I went to the original website ( http://ace.mu.nu warning, partisan) and clicked from there to open the image in a separate tab. So then tried my link from here again and presto, like a charm. So one had to have accessed it already for the pasted link here to work right. Sheesh. I thought the internets were supposed to be so easy now a caveman could do it. nope.
    26 Feb, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    48,
    I like it when I'm smart!!!
    27 Feb, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    JP Thanks for the link. I will put it in a prominent place by my computer so I can come back to earth when daydreaming about stock prices!
    28 Feb, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    Raleigh: Yeah, but I don't like it when it smarts! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4598) | Send Message
     
    Plug Power +12.8% on multi-site GenKey purchase order from Walmart
    Plug Power (PLUG) +12.8% premarket after saying it received a multi-site GenKey purchase order from Walmart (WMT) to launch its hydrogen fuel cell solution to power electric lift truck fleets at six North America distribution centers.
    The initial announcement on Feb. 10 had mentioned only a "significant" contract from a "leading retailer."
    The first of six sites are expected to be deployed by Q2 2014.
    [Energy, On the Move] Comment!
    26 Feb, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (29437) | Send Message
     
    IIRC PLUG had 38.4 million shares outstanding on 31-Dec-12 and they sold 18.9 million units, each consisting of one share and a $0.15 warrant, for a grand total of $2.8 million in February of last year.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/nxn...

     

    Each of those shares is now worth $3.90 and each of the warrants is worth $3.75. I guess there are times when investors who climb the wall of worry and understand that history does not repeat itself are happy with the outcome.
    26 Feb, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    02/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 65, MinTrSz: 22, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 632768, AvTrSz: 9735
    Min. Pr: 0.0903, Max Pr: 0.0974, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0936
    # Buys, Shares: 37 302968, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0944
    # Sells, Shares: 28 329800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0929
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.09 (47.88% "buys"), DlyShts 256707 (40.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 77.84%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0768 vs. $0.0769, $0.0772, $0.0775, $0.0777, $0.0778, $0.0779, $0.0779, $0.0779 and $0.0779 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0749 vs. $0.0742, $0.0752, $0.0763, $0.0785, $0.0799, $0.0816, $0.0846, $0.0836 and $0.0881 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.33%, -6.26%, 0.93%, -78.92% and -47.56% respectively. Price spread today was 7.86% vs. 15.44%, 6.59%, 9.23%, 8.42%, 3.59%, 6.40%, 9.52%, 3.49% and 16.06% on prior days.

     

    Larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 12 of the 65 trades, 18.46%. These totaled 263,501 shares, 41.64% of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0938. 6 of these trades, 50.00%, were buys of 115,500 shares, 43.83% of the larger trades volume, which traded at a VWAP of $0.0942. 6 of the larger trades, 50.00%, were sells of 148,001 shares, 56.17% of the larger trades volume, which traded at a VWAP of $0.0935.

     

    The rest of the trades, 369,267 shares representing 58.36% of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.0935.

     

    At last I have a reason to change my thinking from my belief that we'll sink on down into at least the $0.08xx area again. The traditional TA stuff, along with some of my non-traditional stuff, suggests professional participation in constructing a bullish appearance on the charts. With their record of success any sensible person would give at least even odds they will be successful in producing results from this effort. I believe I'm sensible. So better than 50/50 is my assessment for now.

     

    On the traditional TA front, if we had volume today (and/or no TFH) I would reverse yesterday's “The chance for continued support by my medium-term support grows increasingly suspect” and “I think Wednesday we are likely to be below the line into the $0.08xx area”. With low volume and the recent evidence of manipulation attempts (my humble and TFH-influenced assessment) I remain skeptical of the TA indicators that would normally allow some possibility of bullish sentiment.

     

    A little bad news is that I've identified a short-term descending resistance now that I have an origin at the high of 2/10, $0.12, and three touch points at the highs of 2/11 ($0.1185), 2/13 ($0.1139 and 2/24 ($0.1039). If we should by any accident make an attempt to move up, we should watch for this resistance, ~$0.10 today, very near the descending 50-day SMA of $0.1012.

     

    It's impressive what can be accomplished with a low-volume trading day. As of Monday the 10-day average was ~1.784MM. Today a paltry ~632.8K. And from that “strength” we get a green candle with a higher open and close. Unfortunately, yesterday's 1K trade at $0.1039 spoiled today's party, preventing a higher high. Just shows that short-term thinking and poor planning can thwart the best laid plans of mice and men.

     

    Keeping in mind that I discounted yesterday's 1K $0.1039 “high” and used $0.0960 instead, the lower highs ended at three ...

     

    Several of the oscillators I watch made the first positive ticks I've seen in a while. Full stochastic and Williams %R both ...

     

    More of the usual in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    26 Feb, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    We need to trade another 178,547 shares at current VWAP, $0.0959, to avoid a $40K volume failure.

     

    Current volume 12:30 is 238,601.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Feb, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (828) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I know close to nothing about technical analysis, but was wondering if yesterday's and today's action indicates some kind of bounce off of a support level of Axion's all-time closing low of .09. Any thoughts?

     

    Indelco, re: some of your earlier comments. I understand JP's points about not being able to pursue "all" requests for information, etc., but I do think it would have been prudent for Axion to listen more closely to the opportunities that were recommended by Ed Buiel.
    26 Feb, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how Axion treats its employees, but commonly in Silicon Valley you get people working way overtime by granting them lots of stock. That is one management piece I see missing.
    26 Feb, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    WiO: In a PIPE environment I don't think so. In the past months low volumes have been often accompanied by improved buy percentage and improving prices.

     

    My best non-conspiratorial version is that folks that wanted in but were afraid to move while big volume with trending-down prices was going on see the reduced volume and price apparently becoming a bit more stable as a relatively "safe" entry point. The low volume at price that *looks* like it might be an end of a down trend and near prior lows, would suggest a reduced risk with increased upside reward possibilities.

     

    In that regard, maybe the correct answer to your thought is "yes".

     

    My TFH version is more complicated.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Feb, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to see a rounding bottom for a change but if it takes another round of Financing, I do not have a clue as to how far down it can go.
    26 Feb, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1395) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1gNnPnj

     

    Not sure if posted already, but on Feb 20th Axion's blog has a background info post on California solar storage market.
    26 Feb, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    TESLA market cap $40B
    FORD market cap $60B

     

    Makes you wonder if the world has gone mad.
    26 Feb, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1443) | Send Message
     
    dance> If Axion ramps sales soon, "steeply" per TG, and thus escapes another equity financing, and pleases Mr. Market enough to be awarded a $1B market cap, we get a 50 bagger.

     

    If AXPW got the treatment TSLA is now getting from Mr. Market, we get a 1000 bagger. I will not have stuck around to reap that though. Gotta be honest with self.
    26 Feb, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    Let's just see if 250 can hold today. The Might Musk can just tweet something if it doesn't...
    26 Feb, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    dance621,
    Tesla is on the every day investor radar now. They don't think about silly things like market caps. All they see is that Tesla has gone up almost 10 fold in the last year and so are calling their brokers and telling them to buy the stock for them because companies like JP Morgan are telling them the stock price is going up to $320/share. It may be mad world, but I sure wish I had bought Tesla back when it was $25/share.
    26 Feb, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1766) | Send Message
     
    Correction: I meant Morgan Stanley, not JP Morgan.
    26 Feb, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (356) | Send Message
     
    Ford is in the control of "Big Oil" and is making the planet uninhabitable. Tesla will save the our civilization and the earth itself. You can't put a valuation on that.
    26 Feb, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (162) | Send Message
     
    You know. If I am going to brutally honest with myself I thought Tesla was overpriced at $30. Got that one wrong. Then again when I first heard about texting thought that would never catch on either!
    26 Feb, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    @LabTech: I, too, have underestimated the hype-machine... but I've sure enjoyed trading the volatility!
    26 Feb, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I watched Level II for only part of the day today, but in that part I never once saw ARCA on the offer, at least nowhere near the best price. Saw NITE, BTIG and ATDF on the best offer price, the other three Horsemen of the Axpocollapse, but not ARCA. And those other three were passive sellers, never lowering their offers.

     

    Too early to conclude anything, but a couple data pts now support the "(ARCA =) Parsoon being done" theory.

     

    So, never wanting to wait for full confirmation, I added some shares, lol.
    26 Feb, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17246) | Send Message
     
    MrI: ARCA AWOL today.

     

    That's one reason we will again have a decent buy % and price that doesn't sink abysmally.

     

    I expect them back Monday, latest. If not them, the others that seem to be aggressive at times that you mention.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Feb, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    It really looks to me like we might be seeing the very beginning of what happens when the most aggressive seller is all the way done, and the other three are nearing that point. Those other three get their final allotments, IIRC, very soon, but in lesser amts than recently.

     

    I've noticed that the mkt can often absorb about 750k - 1mil shares/day or so of total volume without dropping in price. If the remaining three just don't increase their pace, we've likely seen the floor.
    26 Feb, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Occam's_Razor
    , contributor
    Comments (1137) | Send Message
     
    @ Mr Investor: From you lips to God's ears....
    26 Feb, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    OR...if GAHD starts buying, look out.

     

    Would that be insider trading?
    26 Feb, 05:56 PM Reply Like