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  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    WHOOPEE
    8 Mar 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    :D
    8 Mar 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    Hoped to be first. It's my 50th birthday today!
    8 Mar 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • growsmart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Izvinee
    8 Mar 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    Happy Birthday, RA!

     

    D
    8 Mar 2014, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    RA, how does it feel to be a young'un? :)
    8 Mar 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    R.A.: FELIZ CUMPLEAÑOS

     

    Saludos-Carlos
    8 Mar 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    Thank you my Axionista friends!

     

    WiO> I do feel as young as ever but I sure don't look it any more. Health is better than looks, though, any day. Health is like oxygen; when you've got it you don't even think about it. When health is compromised though, it's ALL you think about.

     

    May we all do things to enhance our health before our wealth. Lately for me that means less coffee and more herbal tea. :)
    8 Mar 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • raleigh731
    , contributor
    Comments (306) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    You're first in my book...Happy Birthday!
    9 Mar 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    RA> I'm in just about the opposite situation. Because of everything I’ve done for myself while battling chronic Lyme (unknowingly because of the politics surrounding proper diagnosis), I look like a trim and fit much younger man. But because my body has been dealing with the effects of Lyme infections for the past 35+ years, I often feel a 100+ years old. So your thoughts about health are well taken.

     

    BTW, if anybody would be interested in some tips on how to protect you and/or your family from ever getting Lyme (even if you’ve been bitten by a tick), let me know. I’m convinced a couple of OTC supplements taken as a preventive measure, especially during tick season, can be very effective in preventing any Lyme infection from ever taking hold. The critical thing is to never let it take hold, because if it does, it can be very difficult to eradicate.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    WiO: Sorry to hear about that! I can't imagine much more stressful than knowing it's always there and won't leave.
    I hope your symptoms are infrequent and you generally enjoy reasonable health otherwise most of the time.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    WiO ... Sorry to hear about your Lyme disease and medical diagnosis experiences. FWIW, I'm convinced the antibiotic treatment prescribed for Lyme disease in my own case (standard of practice ~ 2001, 2002) only knocked it down to a level controllable with OTC dietary supplements. And, people should be aware one can be re-infected by Lyme disease once "cured".
    9 Mar 2014, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    WiO> Very unfortunate disease to get. Best wishes to you. Is it much of a problem in Oregon? I guess there are Lyme's hotspots.

     

    What are the supplements to take? We have Lyme's here in Wisconsin. To what extent I'm not sure.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    HTL, D-inv, thank you for your kind words. D-inv, antibiotics (Abx) are very effective within the first few weeks of contracting Lyme, and in most cases can knock it out completely. But Abx target bacterial cell walls, and since Lyme bacteria morph into cell-wall deficient forms after a while, Abx become much less effective against them. In addition, the bacteria build protective cysts that are mostly impenetrable by Abx. So you want to hit Lyme with Abx BEFORE the bacteria starts morphing into other forms.

     

    Since I've likely had this for 35+ years, I'm not even considering doing Abx, because many people report becoming far worse after doing so. In short, battling a Lyme infection AND battling the effects of long-term Abx use is too much for many to handle, the more so the older a person is.

     

    This is where my Axion investment comes in. I'm hoping to use my profits to invest in some fairly expensive therapies that are not covered by insurance, including a FIR sauna, my own hyperbaric oxygen chamber (HBOT), and a number of other therapies. I feel confident I can start making some purchases this coming year, and expect incremental health improvements as a result. And then I can start preparing for my post-retirement age career!
    9 Mar 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    RA> I grew up in central Wisconsin getting bit occasionally by ticks. The northeast and the upper mid-west (especially Wisconsin) are major hotspots, but Lyme is now prevalent in all 50 states, and unfortunately is often mis-diagnosed as a different neurological disease.

     

    I consulted with a local ND who said he's had a lot of success treating people with cats claw and teasel root. He believes teasel root especially can knock out nascent Lyme infections pronto. So my thought was, why not just take this tincture regularly during tick season?

     

    The other supplement I believe could be just as helpful is Liposomal Vitamin C. Linus Pauling, who is well known for his advocacy of Vitamin C therapy, was sort of mentored by a rural country doctor from N. Carolina who practiced back in the 1940's.

     

    This doctor was at a loss as to how to treat the many children coming in with polio. But having read some interesting articles on IV Vitamin C, he thought why not give it a try on these children with polio. In short, he treated 60 kids, and they were all healed within 3-5 days.

     

    Since Vit. C is a powerful anti-viral, anti-fungal, anti-bacterial, anti-parastic, and anti-poison of any kind, he started using it to treat tetanus, spider bites, other childhood diseases like measles, chicken pox, diphtheria, etc., and had remarkable success.

     

    The medical establishment seems to view Linus Pauling as a genius, but who perhaps got a little daffy with his Vitamin C enthusiasm. But I think he was on to something.

     

    Liposomal C is regular Vit. C coated with lecithin, giving it a fat coating. This makes it about four times more absorbable than regular C, and it's able to concentrate inside cells (which are fat soluble) and knock out intracellular infections. Many think it’s even more effective than IV Vitamin C (which is expensive and cumbersome), and has been used successfully by many to treat cancer, liver diseases, mitochondrial diseases, etc.

     

    I've recommended Lipo C to many of my healthy friends, and haven gotten feedback on how they are experiencing better energy as a result. One described his experience as having drunk a lot of coffee without the wiredness. Vit. C therapy is currently on the radar screen in New Zealand and Australia as patients are beginning to demand their doctors use it to treat the H1N1 flu. Here’s a link to a quick 4-min. video story on how this awareness got started:

     

    http://bit.ly/1lLWfuq

     

    Because of my own experience with Lyme, I think one of Lipo C's greatest benefits may be its use as a preventative measure of ever getting Lyme in the first place. Many who get it never know they have it until many years of suffering later. I'm convinced that in most instances, that doesn't need to be the case.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for, WIO, for openly remarking on your thoughts regarding these prevention and care strategies.

     

    You are heroic in your focus, effort, and personal care. I wish you the best.

     

    Reading your intentions for what you'd like to accomplish with AXPW profits to further improve your health makes me root for a positive AXPW outcome JUST to make it so for you!
    9 Mar 2014, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Thank you kindly RuggedDC for your supportive words. I was hesitant to "take up so much room" on an investment blog with some of my hard won Lyme knowledge, but I figured it's Sunday, and APC #312 will be history in no time - especially with the recent fast-paced activity!

     

    I figured some may remember these references if it ever became necessary to do so. One last thing to emphasize: Lyme is often referred to as the great masquerader. Doctors often mis-diagnose it for other diseases. So if you or someone you know has puzzling health symptoms that you can't seem to trace down, you may want to consider "reliable" Lyme testing (conventional is not reliable).
    9 Mar 2014, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    Happy *belated* birthday!
    9 Mar 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    WiO> I love the story about the doctor experimenting to treat polio kids. You'd think curing them would have been a story to catch national attention? I don't think doctors experiment that much these days on patients. Too litigious a society now. Plus back then your doctor was also a neighbor and a friend and probably a fellow congregation member at the church that half the neighborhood walked to. Now health care is a more impersonal greedy system.

     

    I read a Pauling book once, might still have it, and can attest that he came across as a very intelligent guy. I wouldn't rule out his miraculous effects of vitamin C. My own experience with artesian mineral water has been borderline miraculous. More correctly, I was likely deficient in minerals before and didn't know it. While my diet is reasonably good for getting minerals, I think that deep waters that have dissolved rock over eons are a superior source for absorption. I recommend fresh highly mineralized well water to anyone who will listen to assist the body with any ailment or just general well being.

     

    Any particular source you recommend for this Lipo C?
    9 Mar 2014, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    RA> "I love the story about the doctor experimenting to treat polio kids. You'd think curing them would have been a story to catch national attention?"
    ---
    My understanding is his work was published in medical journals at the time, and that he presented his results at a major AMA conference in Chicago around 1951. I don't recall the specifics, but it was apparently well known at the time Jonas Salk was working on a polio vaccination, very little enthusiasm was shown, and no money was allocated toward research. Lots of politics in "medical science".

     

    I think there's only a couple different brands of liposomal Vitamin C on the market, and are fairly expensive. (http://bit.ly/1k90ygj). I've learned to easily make my own, which is very INexpensive. There's a good number of YouTube videos on how to make it yourself.

     

    Re: minerals; I consume a lot of Himalayan salt, which is 15% minerals by weight. I believe most people don't get enough natural salt, but I use it liberally to get both the natural sodium and minerals my body needs. Lipo C + salt + minerals is great for teeth, bones, and many other things. Here's a 4-min. video entitled, "Sole: My Replacement for Morning Coffee"

     

    http://bit.ly/1k90ygl

     

    I believe the reason salt has gotten such a bad rap is because most salt consumed is the highly processed (and toxic) commercial variety. Sea salt is also quite highly processed, and not much better.
    ---
    Interestingly, a number of people feel they've successfully treated their Lyme with high doses of salt combined with high doses of Vit. C (about 15 g/day of each). I'm just getting started on seeing what this protocol may do for me.
    10 Mar 2014, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Tickerman
    , contributor
    Comments (101) | Send Message
     
    im in
    8 Mar 2014, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    I have a cigar somewhere close by.
    8 Mar 2014, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Morningstar claims Inverness Counsel LLC and City National Bank hold positions in AXPW. It would be reassuring to see more institutional money invested at some point.
    8 Mar 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • thotdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (1999) | Send Message
     
    when did they institute the positions? Thanks,

     

    G
    8 Mar 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    I could not tell as I don't have the premium Morningstar membership but both positions were taken before 12/31/2013.

     

    R

     

    Inverness Counsel LLC 476,787 shares as of 12/31/2013
    City National Bank 20,000 shares as of 12/31/2013
    8 Mar 2014, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (633) | Send Message
     
    From what I could find in Morningstar, Inverness and City National positions have not changed over the past 8 quarters.
    8 Mar 2014, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    I was just wondering some more about Railroad Day that is taking place in Washington DC on Thursday of this week and the rumors about the NS 6963 being revealed there.

     

    http://bit.ly/O6G5NZ

     

    The new green paint job seems to suggest a possible relationship with the 999. Is there a chance this could be the OTR model?

     

    Would Railroad Day in Washington DC be the proper platform to announce the launch of the new PbC powered engine?

     

    http://on.fb.me/zL5FXS

     

    If any of our train experts could add flavor to this I would appreciate it.
    8 Mar 2014, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that the "NS 6531 SD60 has been rebuilt to NS 6963 SD60E". Could the "E" stand for "Electric"? Inquiring minds want to know. We will soon enough.
    8 Mar 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    Here's the scoop on the SD60E program:

     

    http://bit.ly/WcFpJ7

     

    see the bottom of the file for a description for the updates done to each locomotive

     

    "240 units planned total through 2019

     

    Work Done:
    - Engine upgraded to 16-710G3B-IC w/ EFI and Tier 2 emmisions with split cooling
    - EM2000 microprocessor installed, including all new electrical cabinet
    - New widecab installed with a/c, cab signals & LSL, original long hood retained
    - New crashworthy fuel tank installed
    - Changed from long hood forward to short hood forward where applicable
    - KNORR (CCB2) electronic air brake and motor-driven air compressor installed
    - "Layover equipment" and NS-designed (at Juniata) split cooling installed with added intercooler fan
    - 6921-6926 (later 6946-6951) plus 6934 and up equipped with EMDEC Electronic Control Unit (ECU) system, others equipped with Interstate
    - Initially the first few SD60Es were rated at 3800 hp, but they and the rest have been upped to 4000 hp "
    8 Mar 2014, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    How cool would that be?

     

    SD60E[edit]
    The SD60E is a custom rebuilt SD60 for Norfolk Southern created at the Juniata Shops. So far, only standard SD60s have entered this rebuild program, which began in 2010. It is unknown at this time[when?] if SD60Is and SD60Ms will get this rebuild. The SD60E utilizes a new NS-designed "Crescent" cab with a wide short hood. The name Crescent comes from the Norfolk Southern Crescent Corridor which runs from Louisiana to New Jersey. Norfolk Southern bought additional SD60s from HLCX (Helm Financial Corporation) specifically for the SD60E program. Norfolk Southern plans to build 240 SD60Es.[1] Notable SD60Es include the NS 6920 "Veterans Unit."[2]
    8 Mar 2014, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    While it's fun to daydream, the NS 6963 is part of NS' long-term program of rebuilding their diesel SD60 locos into SD60E's. They have nothing to do with the PbC.

     

    Regarding the loco's visit to Wash DC, "Ten years ago today, GoRail was founded to promote the public benefits of shipping more freight by rail."

     

    So expect that angle next week---it only takes one gallon of fuel to ship a ton of freight 4xx miles via rail vs xx miles via truck...Standard issue PR.

     

    But, if they were also to say something new about the all-electric program, fantastic.
    8 Mar 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (433) | Send Message
     
    @WT - Thanks for that info, but if this is public info, I have to wonder why the " To celebrate, we have a big surprise coming at Railroad Day on Capitol Hill next week." as stated on the FB page. What could the "big surprise" be?

     

    EDIT - you guys are spoiling my daydream

     

    2nd Edit - OK, so maybe the big surprise is "and if you like this, wait until you see what we have coming next"
    8 Mar 2014, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    I already was down this rabbit hole and looking for other pics of the 6963. Found a pic of the side and back. Looks like a normal SD60E. I can see the fuel tank and the fans (venting) on top don't fit with what would make sense for an TELCO.

     

    I still don't understand NS, at all.
    8 Mar 2014, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Holty, TELCO = TEMLO? Mixing AT&T's w/ NSC's? :-O
    8 Mar 2014, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    I asked at Altoona Works site today as to the latest news on the NS999:
    AltoonaWorks response: "It's been sitting outside for quite a while now. The shop is swamped repairing the rest of the fleet, knocking the 999 to an outside storage track."
    8 Mar 2014, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (821) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I,

     

    Do you know if they are painting all of the rebuilt SD60E's the same with the green and black? Could there be even a wild chance that one of the SD60 units could be converted into an OTR unit?

     

    Just speculating!
    8 Mar 2014, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    RB, check out Altoonaworks' FB page. NS does special paint schemes on various locos from t to t.

     

    One of the rr tenants here is that the electric yard slug loco would have to prove out before NS attempts the more challenging electric OTR, but feel free to investigate how that might be incorrect.
    9 Mar 2014, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A battery sale big enough to build an OTR locomotive would be too big to hide in Axion's financial statements.
    9 Mar 2014, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    Edmund: Thanks for the update. Wish it had been better news though.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    ABM, More than a few in congress would hope "ethanol". In their better worlds, bi and tri-fold, that's a big advancement. More interested in sequestering your money.
    8 Mar 2014, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (520) | Send Message
     
    The 6963 is cleaner than the others. That's All I can say for sure.
    http://bit.ly/1hYnoY5
    8 Mar 2014, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    I thought RA made an excellent post (on his 50th birthday no less) at the end of the concentrator #311, after the #312 got started here. So thought I'd paste a couple sentences, and encourage those who may have missed it to check it the entire post (http://seekingalpha.co...)

     

    "Further, and perhaps ultimately more importantly, I've been thinking that this 48v supercharger low speed electric drive concept has got incredible potential. ......... Supposing I am right that strict s/s gets eclipsed by s/s plus low speed electric drive? Then instead of one PbC per car, eventually when this market develops we are looking at THREE to FOUR PbCs per car."
    8 Mar 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Al Marshall
    , contributor
    Comments (633) | Send Message
     
    WIO, given your reference to RA's post at the end of the last concentrator, I thought I should repeat my response there.
    ------
    RA: I was thinking somewhat along the same lines as you the other day and I asked JP about it. He pointed out to me that the battery and electric motor in my Toyota Camry hybrids are much larger and more powerful than the electric motor and 48v battery in the proposed Kia drivetrain.

     

    The owner's manual for the 2007 Camry Hybrid states that it has a 105kW traction motor and the hybrid battery is 244.8v. They enable the car to stay in electric mode when the driver eases off the gas and either doesn't touch the accelerator or (when the car is warm) just slightly depresses the accelerator. If you are very patient and gentle, you may be able to get up to 25mph or a little better before the engine comes on.

     

    With a motor and battery about 1/5th the size the best you'll probably get is the car getting up to fast walking speed and even that will take an uncomfortably long period of time.

     

    I do agree that the small all-electric mode would be helpful for certain situations, most notably when you are stopped at a traffic light and the cars in front start to compress a bit. In my Honda Insight, the engine comes on as soon as you release the brake. To avoid having multiple start-stop events at a single traffic light you have to exercise active discipline to resist the subconscious impulse to close the gap with the car in front of you.

     

    I'm not saying that the Kia strategy is a bad idea. I'm just saying that it is still a mild hybrid and doesn't cross the chasm to what we think of as a full hybrid. I am very intrigued by the super-charger idea which might stake out a new place between mild and full hybridization. By increasing the max power output of the engine (when needed) it would seem to enable the car to be built with a smaller engine that would use less fuel generally, much like ePower is doing. That seems very clever and potentially has great economics. After all, in addition to using less fuel, the smaller engine is probably cheaper and slightly lighter, which would have cascading positive effects on all the other systems of the car. While these secondary effects will likely be small, at least they are almost certain to be positive (ie lower cost).
    8 Mar 2014, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    And since you persist APM, I must as well:

     

    "A 105 KW traction motor? That's substantial. Do the volt and the leaf even have that size motors?

     

    At 245 Volts you'd need like 425 Amps to get you that 105 KiloWatts.

     

    That's a big freakin' battery."

     

    ;)
    8 Mar 2014, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Leaf - 80 kW traction motor – http://bit.ly/w8GiSw
    Volt - 111 kW traction motor – http://bit.ly/1fd1Vu1
    Prius - 100 kW traction motor – http://bit.ly/pSUR11
    LaCrosse - 15 kW traction motor – http://bit.ly/1fd1VKg

     

    KIA - 2 to 4 kW BSG
    8 Mar 2014, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Hyundai Sonata - 35kW
    http://prn.to/Pekogc
    8 Mar 2014, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Pem219

     

    Lots of numbers presented, updated to Feb 2014, including:
    BMW i8 98 kw + 1500cc 3-cyl ICE
    Audi PHEV 73 kW + Wankel
    Prius 75 kW
    Leaf 80 kW
    Tesla - multiple configs including 215kW Roadster

     

    Many many other configurations from every manufacturer it seems, detailing the ratings for the traction motor, battery packs and ICE (if any)
    8 Mar 2014, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    John> I say good for Kia. Less is more. As I recall you seemed somewhat a fan of microhybrid pure s/s, which is 0 kW, so you can add that data point too.

     

    Leaf, Volt, Prius, etc all burdened with Lithium and its attendant problems. Kia, not at all. If using PbC the Kia may turn out to be the most trouble free and long lasting of the bunch.
    8 Mar 2014, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'm all in favor of what KIA is doing. I just think people are reading way too much into the mention of electric only drive capabilities.
    8 Mar 2014, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    John> My assumption with the Kia, which may prove wrong, is that it will not be able to touch the others you mention in terms of "engine off" time. However, the "electric creep" function will prove invaluable compared to a microhybrid with no electric drive at all and thus much more frequent engine off/on events.

     

    Additionally the Kia's electric supercharger/BSG may assist the engine when it is engaged at various speeds allowing it to consume slightly less fuel. (Put another way, the engine can be downsized.) Basic microhybrid s/s does not do this. While the fuel savings may not be huge, by saving the high cost of lithium with its attendant problems and the weight/cost of a large, powerful electric motor, I think the s/s plus electric creep model makes a great deal of sense.

     

    Maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.
    8 Mar 2014, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    John, is the Camry motor in fact that large? 105 KW? And again if so, a ~250V battery would have to be putting out some huge currents to drive it at rated power. Let's say 400 amps. If we estimate that that's a healthy 5C discharge rate then the battery is 80 amp-hours. But 80 amp-hours x 250 volts would mean a 20 KWhr battery. Which is pure EV territory. If all that's true, my question would be, what does the ICE do? ;)

     

    Checking with wikipedia though it looks like the number for the Prius may be off: "The 1.8-liter gasoline engine (previously 1.5 liters) generates 98 hp (73 kW), and with the added power of the electric motor generates a total of 134 hp (100 kW) (previously 110 hp or 82 kW)."

     

    Which tells me that the Prius motor by itself is 27 KW, not 100KW, which is the total combined with the ICE.

     

    For the Camry hybrid though, I'm not sure what to think. From the camry wiki page http://bit.ly/1cLx0QA
    there's this:

     

    "The gasoline engine produces 110 kilowatts (148 hp) and 187 newton metres (138 lb·ft) of torque,[76] with the 650-volt electric motor providing 105 kilowatts (141 hp) and 270 newton metres (199 lb·ft). Working in conjunction, both powerplants produce a total combined output of 140 kilowatts (188 hp), however, due to the intricacy of quantifying a combined torque figure, Toyota has not provided one."

     

    But from a different wikipage http://bit.ly/1cLx0QC
    comparing all of toyota's hybrids there's these values listed for the camry hybrid:

     

    Electric motor output: 45 hp
    Net power: 140 kW (187 hp)
    Traction battery power :30 kW (40 hp)

     

    And then, on the toyota website itself, this hybrid camry specifications brochure

     

    http://toyota.us/1cLx3vR

     

    cites different numbers:

     

    Hybrid engine: 2.5-Liter 4-Cylinder DOHC
    200 hybrid system net hp (149 kW)

     

    ELECTRIC MOTOR
    Motor Type Permanent magnet AC synchronous motor
    Voltage 650V maximum
    TRACTION BATTERY
    Type Sealed Nickel-Metal Hydride (Ni-MH)37 Voltage 244.8V maximum

     

    So I don't know what to think, other than obviously heavy hybrids are going to have bigger motors than mild hybrids (ie kia, lacrosse) but shouldn't be as big either as the full traction motors in EV/PHEVs like the Leaf or Volt...
    8 Mar 2014, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    RA, fwiw, I'm on the same page...
    8 Mar 2014, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Most hybrids have small NiMH battery packs in the 1.5 to 2 kWh range, but they work them very hard for periods of 1 to 20 seconds. It's exactly the same dynamic as we have at ePower. The engine provides the primary motive force for the vehicle and the batteries are only used for acceleration and hill climbing.

     

    It will help immensely if you can burn the following classification ranges into your mind

     

    Heavy hybrid – Over 50 kW of traction motor
    Mild hybrid – 15 to 50 kW of traction motor
    Micro hybrid – under 5 kW BSG

     

    Electric machines that provide drivetrain boost are very high power devices. Trying to do drivetrain work with a low power motor will kill the batteries in short order. I find the references to electric only mode very confusing, but I know the system they've described can't use the BSG boost drivetrain output and leave enough juice to run the electric supercharger.
    9 Mar 2014, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • RuggedDC
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    APH,

     

    I nominate placing JP's definitions, above, of Heavy/Mild/Micro in the header!

     

    BTW: I haven't managed to get it in my head: what's "BSG"?
    9 Mar 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Historically cars have had a starter motor and an alternator. The KIA will be using a single belt-driven starter-generator, or BSG, to do the work that was previously done by two machines. By using one electric machine for two purposes, you can make the machine more powerful without significantly impacting total cost.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    "I am very intrigued by the super-charger idea which might stake out a new place between mild and full hybridization. By increasing the max power output of the engine (when needed) it would seem to enable the car to be built with a smaller engine that would use less fuel generally, much like ePower is doing. That seems very clever and potentially has great economics."

     

    Smaller engine --> less weight
    BSG versus alternator+starter --> less weight?
    BSG versus 15+KW electric motor --> less weight
    PbC versus other lead-acid batteries --> less weight
    9 Mar 2014, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    IIUC, beyond the cost benefits, there's also at least two other distinctions/advantages to a BSG versus a separate starter and alternator:

     

    One, is no pinion gear engagement for the starter. A geared connection as is traditional requires the engine to be stopped before starter engagement can occur. But with a belt that's continuously connected, combined with a clutch, the starter can provide energy to turn or boost the engine even if the engine is already turning.. ie SS during coasting and the "change of mind" scenario. And so this feature helps much to smooth out the actual driver experience and reduce NVH--it essentially allows a more seamless application of starting/boosting torque just as it might be needed compared to a discrete geared starter.

     

    Two, Because it's one electrical machine always turning in the same direction, it can be electrically switched between starting (power delivering) to generating (power extracting) modes fairly quickly... again facilitating smooth transitions between all the varied stopping, starting, accelerating, decelerating, and braking to be found in stop-and-go or slow-go traffic regimes....

     

    Anyway, that's my sense of it through reading bits of the various material that's been linked and shared, particularly CPT's own descriptions of their speed-start. Corrections to my thinking are most welcome...
    9 Mar 2014, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks JohnM! I know little about rail but that sure looks like one long loco.
    8 Mar 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • JohnM121
    , contributor
    Comments (520) | Send Message
     
    The facebook site honored a request not to post pictures before the announcement. I can speculate what's inside, but don't want to upset a mega customer, especially if is something else and they're on the fence regarding other units.
    8 Mar 2014, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    Ranma> "If Axion is making the electrodes only, wouldn't the cost of PbC be rapidly reduced, since a manufacturing partner would have scale and efficiency at making the rest? I still don't understand how a carbon paste solution can be massively cheaper, to the point of Kia being willing to make a shoddy product. Especially if the material costs are near the same..."
    -
    Ranma, very good points; I've been wondering the same. Does anybody know the approximate cost on Axion's proprietary electrode? And/or what kind of margin they could expect?
    8 Mar 2014, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • mrholty
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    Part of the increased cost better be margin. The pastes create little differentation in a commodity world. PbC better have way better margins. I'm hoping for 40% on non-automotive and 25% on automotive.

     

    Screw everbody else if they want it less.
    8 Mar 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (494) | Send Message
     
    As John has explained, the negative electrodes aren't just some carbon sheeting. They are several layers of several different materials that have to be combined to hold the charge while withstanding a chemically aggressive environment.

     

    There is a lot of learning to do in terms of cost reductions before the battery is cheap enough to compete with current technologies.
    8 Mar 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The single pass carbon sheeting process was a massive step forward that probably stripped 80% of the labor out of a PbC. There are still many avenues to further improve performance and reduce costs, but they're likely to be the result of normal process engineering improvements rather than changes arising from hard core basic R&D.

     

    The PbC doesn't have to compete with existing batteries because it does up to 100 times more work than other batteries. Automakers will try the cheaper alternatives first, but the cheaper batteries won't do the job. When the automakers understand that reality, they'll be willing to pay a reasonable for the performance they need.
    8 Mar 2014, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate all the replies and perspectives, and have no doubts Axion's electrode is way better than any kind of carbon paste alternative. But I'm still curious if we know the approximate cost Axion would charge battery manufacturers for their electrode.
    8 Mar 2014, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If a hypothetical PbC would cost $250 and a hypothetical AGM would cost $125, I'd expect Axion to charge at least $125 for the PbC electrodes because using them will reduce the manufacturing partner's lead costs by 30%.
    9 Mar 2014, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Tons of opportunity on the material cost side as well. This will have to wait for a contract of the right magnitude first though. However, in the case of automotive, they will take most of the savings if Axion becomes part of "la famiglia". This will help them in all the other areas that allow for better margins though.

     

    Automotive contracts are generally signed with tiered pricing for volume ramp and also built in cost improvements over time. It becomes an obligation of each party to add value to the product via improved performance and lower cost as time passes. Obviously there are levels of material input costs that need to be built in as well with risks to all parties managed via hedging so the price doesn't float constantly. Should Axion find their partner they would quickly be paired up with suppliers that have far better creed than what they are using today for their parts. This meaning certified suppliers with scale and thus better leverage in negotiating contracts.

     

    They should take advantage of this relationship to move the needs of their other business interests into the same supply chain. Better to do this up front.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    The ePower truck uses the PbC RIGHT NOW, not in some future release. ;)
    8 Mar 2014, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    Amen greentongue. And paraphrasing ePower, no other battery even *works* in the heavy truck application. Nothing else can take the massive and rapid power flows in and out of the batteries except PbC. Carbon pastes be damned.
    8 Mar 2014, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    "The ePower truck uses the PbC RIGHT NOW, not in some future release. ;) "

     

    In pro-type. Commercial sales have yet to occur. While commercial sales would be extremely welcome it appears to me we are unlikely to see any this month.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I would be surprised if we had booked orders this month, but I'd be equally surprised if we didn't have several booked orders by the end of Q2. These things take time and can't be rushed, but at least it won't be covered in sound-proof black canvas.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • mds5375
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    A triviality, but given last week's action, it sure would be heartwarming to see that top chart on the Concentrator updated.

     

    On a much more important note, I want to give my deepest thanks to Axion Power Host. Talk about a time-consuming and thankless task.

     

    No slight to Maya intended. But, at a minimum, a new concentrator every couple of days, plus refereeing squabbles - My hat is off to you! Thank you!!
    8 Mar 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    New graphs have been sent to the Host, but since I work with multi-day moving averages instead of daily prices, the changes aren't that obvious.
    8 Mar 2014, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • LabTech
    , contributor
    Comments (1778) | Send Message
     
    John and IINDelco,
    Thinking about some your comments at the end of the last concentrator, regarding whether Kia would go with an AGM battery with carbon paste or the Ultrabattery first, made me wonder another question. It has been suggested that any movement towards a "lead-carbon" battery is good for Axion, because it gets the name out and the technology front and center. My question is, if Kia goes with an AGM battery with carbon paste does that really help Axion? We know that the PbC isn't a drop-in replacement for an AGM battery, that other parts of the system would need to be modified to take advantage of what the PbC can do, but also to deal with the way the PbC discharges. I am under the assumption that an AGM battery with carbon paste pretty much still discharges and charges the same way that a normal AGM battery does, so Kia wouldn't have to modify their equipment as much to use it, but using the Ultrabattery or the PbC down the line would require future equipment modifications. Am I correct in this assumption? Because if I am, and John is right about them using carbon paste, then I would see this as a situation where we aren't any closer to the auto industry embracing a "true" lead-carbon battery because they haven't embraced the modified equipment they will need for it.
    9 Mar 2014, 12:09 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The biggest reason the PbC is not a good drop in replacement for flooded or AGM batteries is that the automotive systems have not been designed to take advantage of its strengths and it never makes sense to pay a big premium for a component that won't improve the performance of the mechanical systems. But for the modest self-discharge, the PbC would probably work just fine as a starter battery, but it would be wasteful.

     

    KIA is building a mechanical system that will demand far more from the batteries than AGM with paste additives or the Ultrabattery will be able to deliver. A simple stop-start system requires the battery to move 100 times more energy over the course of a commute than a conventional system. KIA wants to make the engine off intervals longer and add the incremental power demands of an electric supercharger.

     

    While current automotive systems are designed for conventional batteries and can't take advantages of the PbC's strengths, the new KIA system is designed for battery performance that conventional batteries can't reliably deliver. In those new systems, the PbC will be an easy drop-in replacement.

     

    In first generation stop-start the automakers could slide with cheaper batteries because weaknesses in the battery system didn't hurt the driving experience and users still got from point A to point B with all the performance they bought in the first place. With second generation micro-hybrids batteries that can't recover their charge fast enough won't be able to power the electric supercharger and that will have a huge impact on the driving experience.

     

    Frankly I think KIA is running a bluff. They know that paste additives and the Ultrabattery can't do the work, but the PbC can. They hate the PbC's price, but know that its far cheaper than lithium. Setting up paste additives or the Ultrabattery as a straw man alternative improves their negotiating position.
    9 Mar 2014, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    In my mind the game changes when we are working with a 48v system...

     

    In a 12v system you have a workable voltage range between 12.2-12.8v for a SOC between 50-100%. A pretty narrow band for all the pieces to play with and the PbC is NOT a drop in replacement.

     

    In a 48v system its a much broader range 48.8-51.2 for AGM (same SOC) but with the PbC the range is much broader as the PbC's sweet spot is between 20-80% SOC and when the pieces are made to operate with a broad range you access to more of the stored power.

     

    If you want the high cycle life with an AGM you must stay north of 50% SOC so you really only have access to half of the power in the bank. The PbC does not have this restriction as long as the pieces can work within the entire voltage range.

     

    In my experience in the solar and heavy duty equipment industry these set points are managed by profiles or variable settings. It would come as a great surprise if the KIA could not be reprogrammed to fit a PbC profile making the PbC a possible drop in replacement...
    9 Mar 2014, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (494) | Send Message
     
    Since Kia hasn't set a delivery date yet - or even a confirmation of a build decision, they can bluff for as long as they like - hoping to get something better out of Axion.

     

    At some point in the future, they will decide that the best they are going to get out of Axion is the where they are, and they will have convinced themselves that they have no other choice. Unless they kill the whole program.

     

    Its more of a psychological process for people at Kia than it is a technological decision. John's analogy of ePower trying something else until they convinced themselves only PCB would work is spot on. People inside of Kia are people too, with their own worries about their own careers and standing based on decisions they make.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    LabT ... I have the impression difficulties in using LABs (AGM or flooded) in start/stop and hybrid vehicles with recovery of braking energy lie in two dimensions. First is the issue of partial state of charge operations accelerating sulfation of negative electrode and resulting decline in charge acceptance. Second is maximum charge acceptance of the batteries in "virgin" state.

     

    Could be wrong, but I'm under the impression braking energy recovery can generate more current than conventional lead-acid batteries can absorb. The chart at http://bit.ly/1k6SPiS indicates UB can accept 3X the charge AGMs-FLABs can take without damage. IIRC, PbCs can accept charge at 10X as well as discharge faster while not suffering sulfation in PSOC operation.

     

    A "white paper" on Ultrabattery is downloadable from http://bit.ly/1k6SPj0 . Axion's "white paper" on the PbC should be available from Axion's website.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (494) | Send Message
     
    LabTech :: Just to reiterate John's point - Pcb is pretty much a drop in replacement for a lead acid battery. It just has far more capability and is more expensive.

     

    So if Kia designs for Lead Acid with Carbon paste, they will have to add software to deal with the shortcomings of the battery - charge it slower, pull power from it less aggressively, have work-arounds when the battery doesn't work very well, which may not be possible with the super-charger compressor.

     

    If they then replace the batteries with Pcb, then they just remove many of those software provisions as the battery is capable of more for longer.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >JamesBBecker ... NO! a PbC is not a drop-in replacement for a LAB in any other way than it is the same size. I'd venture to guess you'd burn your electrical system (car) to the ground.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    Excellent points, Tim. So, relative to carbon paste and Ultrabattery batteries in a 48V application like Kia's future vehicle platform, PbC offers less battery weight, greater charge acceptance, more power, more useable energy, longer service life?
    9 Mar 2014, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    That's it? ;^)
    9 Mar 2014, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Tim Enright
    , contributor
    Comments (1345) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv, assuming software changes and complying hardware, yes although I wouldn't say more power or energy without seeing numbers but might squeak in the term adequate. My thoughts anyway...
    9 Mar 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    James> My worry is that competitive economics might force Kia to play the game of using cheap carbon paste batteries and offering a great sticker price in hopes of profiting on the replacement batteries with a relatively short lifespan. The old planned obsolescence model. They can always tell customers later they kept the sticker price down so don't expect BMW performance.

     

    Consumers are highly swayed by initial price; it's difficult for even savvy consumers doing their homework to sort through the claims and hype and figure out the longer term economics. So I think the hybrid space is a very tough area to compete in and there's a temptation to get the sticker price down. That's my fear for Axion. Whether any carbon paste AGM or the Ultrabattery can do an adequate job for even a few years with a BSG, I don't know.

     

    From the Batteries International 2013 winter edition:

     

    "One ALABC project has even demonstrated that UltraBattery modules (supplied by East Penn) can operate in a Honda Civic HEV for more than 140,000 miles of courier routes in Arizona without any significant capacity loss."
    9 Mar 2014, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Planned obsolescence has always worked for business, but they've never gotten away with planned obsolescence of systems that allegedly protect the environment.

     

    When batteries simply started the engine, automakers could blame the batteries and battery manufacturers could blame the consumer while the consumer ended up paying the price.

     

    Now that automakers are relying on batteries as integral elements of their emission control systems, I think the old battery shuffle has a very short life expectancy. As micro-hybrids become prevalent, emissions inspection protocols will almost certainly change to ensure that the stop-start systems function properly. When cars start failing inspections because the OEMs used inadequate batteries, the sewage will encounter the air circulation device.
    9 Mar 2014, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    "Consumers are highly swayed by initial price; it's difficult for even savvy consumers doing their homework to sort through the claims and hype and figure out the longer term economics."

     

    One of the reasons Edmunds.com and a few other auto-consumer oriented organizations calculated and publish five year costs of ownership. At least some people look at those numbers before making purchase decisions.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    LabTech, John's basically covered it.

     

    Hyundai/Kia are not structured in their product development process like ePower. They are going to follow the same product lunch phases that all their products go through. If any of the various energy storage devices being tested do not support an acceptable warranty risk and all government regulations for product safety/emissions in the markets they intend to launch in they will not utilize the ones that don't meet these and other internal criteria. There are program phases where responsible parties need to review test data to assure that the components and systems being packaged in the final design will deliver an appropriate level of service to make them competitive in the targeted market sectors and will not put the company at risk over the entire life of the vehicle. There will be no intentional omissions because the consequences huge.

     

    As a result of the above, and Vani knows the process well, I see no advantage to Axion if Hyundai/Kia goes w/ carbon additives. Because if they do, it works and we were wrong about the need for PbC once a certain level of electrification was reached in a vehicle if a lead chemistry was to be the energy storage choice.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Consumer Reports, April 2014, Page 8, "Most and least expensive cars to own" 12 categories. Least expensive = Toyota Prius C Two, $0.41/mile; Most expensive = BMW 750Li, $1.77/mile. All over 5 years at 12,000 miles/yr.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    "Because if they do, it works and we were wrong about the need for PbC once a certain level of electrification was reached in a vehicle if a lead chemistry was to be the energy storage choice."

     

    ii - if Kia goes with carbon additives, how will that change your opinion of Axion?
    9 Mar 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Most of the reason I'm here was because of what I perceived to be the timing and opportunity in rail. And to be frank I was pretty off on timing.

     

    I am not a fan of automotive as an investment. I like it only because they drive you to manage things via a structure that will yield a robust product/process and because it will give access to capital to build scale.

     

    At this point, as far as I'm concerned, Axion could just license their technology to automotive to interested parties for cash and some agreements to share their product and automation advances and be done with it. Maybe even have them build PbC's for Axion's other target markets via some manufacturing agreement. I really don't think Axion should be in the manufacturing business. Others can do a far better job.

     

    In the end, given time spent, it would be a negative because the level of electrification in the Kia system is what I think requires PbC. Being wrong is never good because it means there are other better alternatives.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    John> Re Kia bluffing -- what has you convinced the Kia does not have "Axion Inside"?
    9 Mar 2014, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If KIA was already committed to Axion we'd know about it and even if nothing had been disclosed publicly the jungle drums would have gone crazy by now. Some secrets are just too big to contain.

     

    I do think that KIA has probably made a "We want this battery" decision, but they haven't figured out how to get it for a price they'd like to pay. The fun and frustrating thing about the future is that it hasn't been written yet and there's just no way tell where the road goes after the top of the next rise.

     

    Based on what I know about carbon paste additives, the Ultrabattery and the PbC, the PbC is the only battery that makes sense in KIA's application. I said the same thing about ePower in 2010 but Jay didn't want to pay the price of upgrading from flooded batteries to the PbC. Instead, he spent a couple frustrating years trying to get more out of AGM batteries than they could deliver. Now that he's paid the price and seen the difference, Jay is the first to admit that ePower wouldn't have a product without the PbC.

     

    Churchill might have said, You can always count on automakers to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.
    9 Mar 2014, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    And this is where I'm glad our guy (TG) has great experience as a negotiator.

     

    Although I fully expect the Axionistas will be put through the wringer as we wait and wonder and can be told nothing of the negotiations taking place behind the scenes.

     

    But ultimately TG will get the best price possible for the PbC at the best possible terms, of that I'm sure.

     

    Strap on your seatbelts, folks - it's going to be a bumpy ride.

     

    D
    9 Mar 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    John> From what you've gathered on the Kia, do I understand correctly that you do expect that carbon additive LABs will fail to perform the work? and also that PbC is a drop in replacement in the Kia?

     

    If such is the case, it seems Kia could save some customer satisfaction face and keep sticker price down too by offering an upfront "premium PbC battery option" including extended warranty.

     

    If the Kia's hybrid functionality starts performing poorly in a year or two due to carbon paste inferior batteries then the whole concept's reputation goes down the drain. That's a lot of good engineering for nothing. If they have the premium battery option which keeps working like a champ then the concept's life goes on. Long term foolish to do as Churchill predicts. Reputation does catch up.
    9 Mar 2014, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I'd need to see the electrical load profile before jumping to any conclusions. A 48-volt BSG will do a great job of carrying higher accessory loads while the engine is running, but declining DCA will reduce regenerative braking efficiency and make longer engine off intervals problematic. Without a lot more data than we have it's real hard to come to an accurate estimate.
    9 Mar 2014, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Valleywood,

     

    Thanks for your answer on the previous concentrator. When you mention government requirements to test more batteries are you thinking about a grant requirement? In general I wouldn't think the government would require this kind of testing.

     

    Thanks
    9 Mar 2014, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    jcrjg,

     

    I believe NS is done testing for their purposes. The fed however offers a grant to do testing and then specifies, "Only NSC can apply for this grant." What the fed is doing is forcing testing of different products because NSC has already spent years getting the proper testing equipment and procedures in place. Any time the government "invites" you to apply for a grant and you are the only permitted invitee, then you know the invitation is not an invitation. It is a demand.

     

    The government does not give a bleep about testing the batteries of locomotives. NS has already done that. What is wanted is rigorous testing of other battery types for heavy applications. Why do your own testing when you can mandate NSC do it for you?

     

    I have every reason to believe NSC is sick and tired of testing for other people. They want to get on with their own application. Again, I have no knowledge of anything, but I do understand NS behavior and their current behavior makes no sense unless I view it in the above speculated spotlight. Justaguess. :>)

     

    I believe the guv'mint want brutal battery testing for all current battery technologies and this is a way to get it. I think it's that simple.
    9 Mar 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    VW - Then why not get on with it and test at the same time?
    9 Mar 2014, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... NSC has endorsed Axion's PbC as the best they know of. They have also told us about the reservation they continue to have. One that might be the hold-up for implementation ... at least in the switcher. The testing done on the Corvus is as you say, Norfolk & Penn State have developed the gold standard procedure ... yet the the problem lingers for all battery types.
    9 Mar 2014, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    "What the fed is doing is forcing testing of different products because NSC has already spent years getting the proper testing equipment and procedures in place. "

     

    VW ... I believe the FOIA record shows evaluation of Li-ion battery packs was included in DOE/FTA's work-to-be-performed program for electric locomotive research grant in 2011 or 2012. NSC proposed elimination of that part of the work program in April-May 2013 according to FOIA documents. (NSC had already evaluated Li-ion as well as NiMH in prior years and likely saw insufficient advances to justify still more testing in 2013.) FTA's grant for half the cost of the Corvus Li-ion battery pack was IMO the DOE/FTA response to NSC's request for elimination of the Li-ion leg of the prior grant's work program.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, Your proposal sounds good however I know deep in my bones that NSC is going to follow it's own capital budget and project progression timetable. OR, as DRICH mentions below, NS may still remain stuck on another technical point that they are in fact working on.

     

    My point is that I have reason to believe NS is sick and tired of testing batteries they know in advance will not work. Research and tests is a small department and they have other work to do. That part I do know.

     

    NS will do what NS will do and they will do it on their own timetable. I have opined for years on this board that I do not know if NS will progress with their project at all, but if they do progress with TEMLO as currently defined or configured they will do it with Axion.

     

    What I know with confidence is that Moorman will not allow 999 to move forward if there are problems he knows have not yet been solved. NS is cautious when being bold. The only fact we know for certain is that it appears 999 is just sitting. We know absolutely nothing else. To assume 999 is the center of the project however is in error IMO. In fact, I believe TEMLO development is not being done in Pennsylvania at all.

     

    It would be great to have definitive factual answers as to why NS is doing what it is. For legal and ethical reasons I have not, do not, and will not make direct inquiry. I do however believe the decisions are being made in the conference room on the penthouse floor in Norfolk. And that is a highly hardened room with folks wearing poker faces.

     

    NS testing results are the reason I invested in Axion. Further, my personal emotional and intellectual curiosity is first and foremost in rail applications. That said, it never even enters my mind to include rail in my hopes. NS has already fulfilled my hopes in that regard.

     

    I remain focused (in order) on:

     

    1) The cube
    2) ePower
    and will be thrilled to find us involved with:
    3) auto
    4) rail

     

    I love speculating on 1,2, & 3 because they might be open to view. I never spend one moment speculating on 4 because I know for certain that the process is unknowable and the decisions are imponderable.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    DRich, I think you've nailed it. I believe the holdup is elsewhere. I am reasonably confident that NS management (read President & EVPs + Board members) will not tolerate another public flop for customers to see. One mistake is forgiven two mistakes call for the removal of body parts.

     

    The great irony ( for me & possibly for you since you know how RRs work) is that as you say, NS now holds the gold standard for destructive, brutal, battery testing. They've developed this amazing testing system and as a reward for such cutting-edge performance are being held hostage to use it for other purposes.

     

    It's kinda like being really handy around the house. If you know how to do something, you are expected to do all manner of household projects. But if you were incompetent with tools things projects would be allowed to slide and many would not see the light of day. It makes working on the projects you really want to work on very difficult to address.

     

    I believe this is one of God's great enigmas of the human condition. :>)
    9 Mar 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    You are correct w/ Li batteries. That is what the paperwork indicates.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I have to agree that "TEMLO development is not being done in Pennsylvania at all." I'd be shocked if the NS999 platform that has been sitting in storage for the past 6 months is anything but an empty shell. Roanoke is where the test facility is and that is where I'd bet the batteries are.

     

    I don't agree that Norfolk is tired, in the least, of testing batteries. I mean ... look ... they are presently building a NatGas fueled prototype, knowing full well how that is going to perform ... and fail once again. It is more interesting that they are also building a prototype for dual fuel which BNSF favors. That could be interesting if we ever get to see any test results. Anyway, I think battery testing will continue until there exists a bulletproof single solution or at least 2 viable, but not perfect, solutions. Just for an example, has anyone ever tested Axion's PbC to failure? It would be an interesting question to have answered.

     

    From an engineering point of view neither battery solution exists today. I don't at all see the big, scary government coercing the process.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    >DRich "They have also told us about the reservation they continue to have. One that might be the hold-up for implementation ... at least in the switcher. "

     

    Pardon my ignorance, what is that reservation? Price? Alternative suppliers?

     

    Not challenging, just trying to remember.

     

    Thanks,

     

    D
    9 Mar 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    DRich, you may be right. However, my experience in NS government compliance issues suggests otherwise.

     

    That said, I'm with you that NS wants a minimum of two workable candidates. I cannot imagine them allowing themselves to be hostage to one supplier. I also suspect as your post suggests that PbC has been tested to failure. I know the boys in Roanoke and it would be impossible for them to resist.

     

    What do you think of the notion that modular battery power modules are being tested? Say perhaps 6,000# slide-in units with troubleshooting facilities in four locations? Would make for fast turnaround and standby applications. That's my current pet theory. Fun for me to think about anyway.

     

    What I would find interesting is the extent to which BN & NS are sharing information. I'd also love to know if BN and NS are cross testing applications. I think those two are thick as thieves in the alternative fuel process. I hope they find something workable. If the two RR leaders cannot make something work . . .

     

    Wouldn't be surprised to see joint patent applications.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    VW> Is there any merit to the idea that the especially hard winter might have caused NS to lighten the staff for 999 research in order to lend a hand with equipment troubles or track repairs or something?
    9 Mar 2014, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tampa Ted
    , contributor
    Comments (2652) | Send Message
     
    VW -

     

    "The only fact we know for certain is that it appears 999 is just sitting. We know absolutely nothing else. To assume 999 is the center of the project however is in error IMO. In fact, I believe TEMLO development is not being done in Pennsylvania at all."

     

    I think we know more than that the NS 999 is sitting in Altoona, i.e. the testing of the batteries occurring in the HLS, which is located outside of R&T in Roanoke, the identification of Axion as a "partner," and the joint technical presentation. IMO, all of these facts support a reasonable argument that NS is really testing a second generation NS 999 in secret.

     

    However, I also think a reasonable argument can be made that NS is not completely committed to moving the program forward, yet.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >K.McHattie ... Go back and read the FIOA document. The answer is referenced where they talk about racking and thermal rise. Both the same problem ... Heat.

     

    It is why I'm interested in ePower's battery monitoring. I might just get a clue from that but it seems ePower is not working the batteries nearly as hard as they could and lean toward worrying about the regen spike. Meanwhile, I believe Norfolk is worried (and testing) the duty cycle.

     

    I see Norfolk testing batteries until some very basic "bean counter" questions can be answered and this applies to Axion's PbC and the only Li-on contender presently in use. Never mind the applications & duty cycles are very different, the problem is the same and unknown. I don't even think Axion knows the failure modes of their own product. Axion might know what can and might fail but not the how and under what conditions. The reason warranty assurances keep changing with ePower.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... I can tell you for a fact (which will remain unsubstantiated) that BNSF & NSC are running collaborative application testing.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    VW: "... suspect as your post suggests that PbC has been tested to failure. I know the boys in Roanoke and it would be impossible for them to resist".

     

    There's the clue we need! They've been pushing it hard as they can for multiple thousands of cycles and haven't got it to fail yet! :-))

     

    Can't progress until they can give mgmt a hard and fast data point! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    I can see the NS guys in a smoke filled room taking odds and making bets on how many cycles until failure. So far the pot of money has grown and grown with no winner yet as the PbC just won't fail. So they keep cycling the thing and betting whilst the 999 sits unattended. :-P
    9 Mar 2014, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    DRich,

     

    Same here. And yes, will remain unsubstantiated. :>)
    9 Mar 2014, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,
    Agreed. NS is not completely committed. That's been my argument for years on this board. If they become committed we will know quickly and in great volume.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... There are links to articles and papers that show the cross testing but most are not direct, up-front declarations. Besides, no one really cares all that much to go deep into the weeds for heavy transport and I don't think any of it will be coming to market anytime soon. Presently I'm curious about the grid applications that should be coming to market in the next 24 months. Hope Axion stays healthy long enough.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    VW,

     

    Thanks for the additional thoughts. I appreciate your insights.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    RA, every Operations officer knows he (she) will be reassigned for emergency duty. Track repairs, snow, flooding were addressed by slobs like me in Engineering Maintenance. The R&T guys were assigned to help with Power & rolling stock. In either case however one is restrained from physical labor except in the case of urgent emergencies.

     

    One of the great advantages of having a government official with you during an emergency is that you are released from ordinary restraint. I loved patrolling with an FRA official during emergency service. Their presence allowed you to attack problems with no union limitations so long as you remained within FRA rules.

     

    Both FAA officials for airlines & FRA officials for RRs are dreaded in routine matters. In emergencies they can become your best pal.

     

    Not to be cute, but I honestly do not know if RRs had exceptional emergencies this winter. I know I did not get a call, and in dire straits (maybe my favorite rock band) retirees from Operations are expected to respond to calls.

     

    I remain with DRich in the theory that technical problems other than battery performance alone are the limitation. Where we differ is that I believe NS wants to aggressively pursue their experimental testing but federal mandates must first be completed.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (872) | Send Message
     
    RA
    The minimum bet of course is the daily cost of running this seemingly endless testing.
    9 Mar 2014, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    In the darkest days of 1940-41 Churchill's favorite phrase was KBO

     

    Keep buggering on

     

    Feels about right
    9 Mar 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    KBO may have been apropos for the last four years, but "welcome to the rodeo" may be better from this point forward.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Take a break for a few minutes and I'll be updating JP's charts. I'll begin 10 minutes from the time stamp of this comment and should prevent posting comments for ... 10 minutes or so?
    9 Mar 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Starting up date in 10, 9, 8, 7, 6 ... :-)
    9 Mar 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Axion Power Host
    , contributor
    Comments (523) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Charts have been updated.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    It's a shame my charts are all based on 10- through 200-day moving averages because three days of strong performance doesn't show up clearly in anything but the volume chart.

     

    It's also worth noting that the FINRA data for March is only one week while all of the other columns show full months.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    John, you could probably re-do all your work for day-by-day stats and have it done in a couple months. Inquiring minds want to know.

     

    Of course, it this continues to mid April both your moving averages will show stuff very nicely.

     

    Still . . . :>)
    9 Mar 2014, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Everything should show up nicely by the end of next week. When these graphs change the 10-day goes almost vertical and the inflections are impossible to miss.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    So . . .

     

    How many Axionistas does it take to screw in a light bulb???
    9 Mar 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    That number is covered by an NDA.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    It depends on the performance characteristics of the light bulb which, although widely known by those that need to know, can not be published by Axion because the paticular bulb is also covered by an NDA.

     

    The only published specification is that "it works".

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    Very clever Mr. Investor! Very clever indeed.
    9 Mar 2014, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (2856) | Send Message
     
    Trick question. If the circuit is powered by a traditional lead acid battery or an Ultrabattery they will not screw the bulb in. They will smash it.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    Never tried it in a light bulb, but I can attest that it only takes two in a hot tub.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    SMaturin: but the critical info is "is it limited to two"? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    HTL,

     

    Now you are asking for NDA-covered numbers.

     

    In the spirit of full disclosure I can inform you that this research was conducted in partnership with *REDACTED*.

     

    *A gentleman never tells.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    obie,

     

    is there a punch line? The suspense is killing me. I'm betting MrI and HTL got it right.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    I think the NDA one comes closest to what was wandering around in what, laughingly, passes itself off as my brain.

     

    Original Answers were:

     

    For Axionistas: "We don't know because management never tells us anything!!"

     

    For the too-frequent trolls: "It doesn't matter because I'm not screwing in anything until I see some SALES!!!"
    10 Mar 2014, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >obieephyhm ... Gee, I never (well, maybe not never, but most of the time) considered myself a "Troll" here. Amazing how often I can be wrong.
    10 Mar 2014, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    >DRich . . . 'scuse me but I wasn't referring to you so, please don't take it personally as that wasn't my intent, t'all.
    10 Mar 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • obieephyhm
    , contributor
    Comments (1591) | Send Message
     
    by way of explanation, in my tiny little brain there are Axionistas (whether or not we agree with each other or have the occasional inter-family squabble . . . and there are a few trolls who primarily seem to leap out at every new thing JP writes/posts (for which he generally displace far greater patience than I would).

     

    Please, the vast majority of you are not the trolls (whether you've been harping on sales or not) . . . this was just my way of vent some steam at the few who creep around every so often.

     

    (moderator should feel completely free to pull my remarks, if I've offended . . . we don't need another word-war because of my weird humor).
    10 Mar 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >obieephyhm ... Cheer up. I seldom feel personally offended. Normally it is exasperation with me. I hold the position that since we've been reassigned to evaluate Axion as a commercial enterprise now and not the R&D company I bought into, the only thing that makes any difference is "Ink of Paper".
    10 Mar 2014, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    Wednesday's (matching the day Duke says my electricity will be restored, although Time-Warner will likely not have my internet fixed then) EOD post.

     

    03/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 349, MinTrSz: 60, MaxTrSz: 95000, Vol: 4198959, AvTrSz: 12031
    Min. Pr: 0.0999, Max Pr: 0.1335, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1108
    # Buys, Shares: 205 2139462, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1112
    # Sells, Shares: 141 2039497, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1104
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1118
    Buy:Sell 1.05:1 (50.95% "buys"), DlyShts 1718581 (40.93%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 84.26%

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768, $0.0769, $0.0772 and $0.0775 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0887 vs. $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749, $0.0742, $0.0752 and $0.0763 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.16%, 32.18%,13.51%, 58.34% and 137.74% respectively. Price spread today was 33.63% vs. 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44%, 6.59%, 9.23% and 8.42% on prior days.

     

    The rest of the stuff is old enough that putting it here may not benefit many. So for those with an interest, go to the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    And Now for something completely different:

     

    JP, a Cummins/Eaton auto transmission.

     

    Maybe one day ePower can piggyback w/ smaller engine?

     

    http://bit.ly/NOflC3
    9 Mar 2014, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Bad link for me. I'll still vote for CVT being the better choice of tranny for electric motors.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    We're toying with the idea of bolting a 10-speed Eaton ultra shift automatic transmission to our electric drive motor because it would be a step up from the rebuilt transmissions we're using today. We'd need to slow our drive motor down a bit and change the gearing to better suit our torque curve, but the idea has merit. For now, however, we're just window shopping because tiny companies have to be careful when it comes to buying costly toys that can quickly deplete cash reserves.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (853) | Send Message
     
    Trying part deaux:

     

    http://bit.ly/1gjcfg5
    9 Mar 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >Valleywood ... Thanks. That one worked. My big problem with traditional transmissions mated for diesel and one for electric motors is to torque curves are diametrically opposed. Gearing in an ordinary tranny is a tricky balancing act while a CVT should not care about the power sources torque curve while it watches the output shafts. Anyway it is just a an thought exercise at the present time because it will be at least 3 more years before anyone has a chance to test it.
    9 Mar 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (402) | Send Message
     
    HTL

     

    "80% of today's VWAP is $0.0887 vs. $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749, $0.0742, $0.0752 and $0.0763 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs."

     

    Pipers going to continue to be happy campers if they pick up shares at those prices

     

    What a rip off

     

    Hope they are treating our former CFO well
    9 Mar 2014, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    Dlmca: you can't get the blood boiling with those numbers - look at the one that would actually get used, because it's the *lower* of ...

     

    The one for today is:
    03/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764

     

    Now, get a "selfie" with the steam coming out of your ears and share! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    I visited a local Kia dealership yesterday, and asked about the Next Gen Hybrid being showcased in the Kia Soul.
    There was a group of three salesmen present when I asked about it and they all immediately said that it is a concept. They added that it has been talked about in the Kia dealership circles for the last six months. They were quite
    positive that it is simply a concept, and that it is being shown in Geneva as a test of initial prospective market reaction.

     

    They went on to say that if it were to be sold as a product offering, it would first be sold in Korea, then Europe, and then
    North America and elswhere.

     

    While there, I asked how long before a new or substantially upgraded product is to be offered for sale at the dealerships
    does the Kia send the techs/mechanics out for training on the new or upgraded vehicle. The answer that I got was that Kia sends the techs/mechanics out for upgrades in training once a year. So, I am thinking that any auto maker that is planning to release a new micro or mild or heavy hybrid or BEV application will be bringing their tech/mechanica team in ahead of time for the required training on the new or upgraded systems.

     

    A local GM dealership told me that when the Volt was first released for sale, the techs/mechanics and service writers went in for training six months before the vehicle's arrival at the dealership lots.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Reposting from last concentrator.

     

    HTL (or others),

     

    Maybe you have addressed this but with all of the posting it is hard to keep up. Does this weeks price rise support the hypothesis that supply of axion shares will decrease and that this will increase the price. Given the large volumes at high prices it seems like the demand has increased greatly.

     

    Thanks.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    Jcrjg: I have no opinion about supply decreasing because JP is much more in tune with that.

     

    It does look like we've got demand because of the move upward on my stuff in the buy percentage.

     

    I still have to do the 6th and 7th, but I know the 6th had buy percentage around 50% too (just checked - 44.67%, not quite as high as I thought). The 7th has a number above 50% that I posted in another comment. From past behavior, I know we've had good price movement when average percentages over time were up in this range, and higher - IIRC up to 60%+.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    I wonder what type of price action is typical for "buy" percentages above 50% on any stock. Does anyone have any inkling as to what is "typical"? Also, fwiw, I think this is the first time we've had "buy" percentages higher than "sell" percentages since I started following Axion over a year ago (almost two? I think my first buy was Spring 2012). That must be a good sign of things to come.
    9 Mar 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • jcrjg
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL.
    9 Mar 2014, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19537) | Send Message
     
    Isthisonebetter: I think the *average* buy percentages over time are more indicative. Both my daily charts and the one-year instablog carry charts that let you look at those averages in conjunction with price, volume, short sales, ...

     

    Another factor that used to be significant, and may be so again, was average trade size. Recently that has been creeping up too.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL
    9 Mar 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3689) | Send Message
     
    JCR, all we know is demand overwhelmed supply for a few days. Hopefully, this is the case because the PIPErs are near dry. Or it could just be they moved to the sidelines to allow themselves to get some of the pps appreciation since they too can feel the pulse of this board.

     

    My gut tells me they are likely out of supply - but also that demand is unlikely to stay at current 3-5M daily share range if prices remain above 20 cents. At some level valuation matters and I'm not so sure that the enthusiasm for a 40M market cap company will be as strong as when it was 20M. Nevertheless we have been above 120M market cap before so the ceiling has some headroom. Hopefully KIA rumors/news is only the first of many good things that will come down the tracks as we head toward the annual meeting.
    10 Mar 2014, 12:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (3221) | Send Message
     
    I think there now may be a lot of new investors that want in, to establish a position, at a minimum. With the PIPErs either gone or very close to it, then the available supply shrinks to profit taking by Axionistas and others. While there will of course be some of that, we may well prove to be just as tight-wady on the way out as we were on the way in. Tight supply can do some powerful things to micro cap prices.
    10 Mar 2014, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    I think there has been plenty of auto OEM discussion these last few days and it has gotten me thinking. I feel the general consensus, which is one I agree with, is that Kia's lead-carbon solution will not be PbC in their first production run, though it cannot be ruled out. I'd like to get an idea of people's opinions on something specifically related to that, which is, once Kia goes to production with their lead-carbon solution, whatever that means, what type of response would you expect from BMW and other luxury auto OEMs? How much more likely would you say that they are to adopt a lead-carbon solution? How likely are they to pick the premium lead-carbon solution, our beloved PbC? To me, the battery selection is an obvious area where luxury car companies can differentiate themselves from the pack. I would think that by as early as the next year's hybrid model, you would start to see lead-carbon solutions in premium vehicles, equipped with a premium battery -- all, of course, for a premium price.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    Of some concern to me is the failure of a sub-standard LC solution. Anyone else see a "guilt by association" dampening affect?
    9 Mar 2014, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    tahoe,

     

    that is one of my biggest fears, that a sub-par battery will pre-maturely invalidate the PbC for auto.
    9 Mar 2014, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Guilt by association really only applies to those who don't know the particulars. If low-information consumers get a bad taste in their mouths from failure of Lead-Carbon micro/mild hybrids I guess that would be bad, but unless Lead-carbon hits mainstream it's hard to see how that many consumers would really be aware of it. I mean, Lead-Carbon is barely a blip now. It would have to find it's way into a whole lot of cars, and then fail spectacularly, for it to really make that big of an indelible impression on the public consciousness. Just hard to see it happening that way. What I think is more likely is that OEM's will be first trying out lead-carbon hybrids on a smaller scale, ie what we're likely seeing with Kia... and if it's Lead-Carbon paste, and it fails to deliver or hold up, yeah it's a negative, but I doubt it will have that great a scope of impact. Unless it's some kind of spectacular failure the public will hardly care. They hardly care about lead-acid as it is. Li-ion and Tesla and EV's well that's sexy. But LA is a yawn fest. The OEM's on the other hand, will certainly know the particulars... they'll know it's the cheapo carbon-paste solutions that couldn't cut it. I don't see how that knowledge could discredit PbC... they will surely know the difference. If anything it will drive them to PbC-- a la Churchill's quote of doing the right thing only after trying all the other cheaper, easier, more palatable, path-of-least-resistance alternatives...
    9 Mar 2014, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    48,

     

    I suspect you are correct. The autos will know before the failure event that they chose the cheaper, easier, more palatable, path-of-least-resistance, wrong battery.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • JamesBBecker
    , contributor
    Comments (494) | Send Message
     
    isthisonebetter:: In the world of automakers, BMW seems to be a pretty independent company - very engineering driven. They've done the most to try to make carbon fiber composites work while other companies don't bother.

     

    I doubt they do much of any analysis of what other car companies are doing unless its really revolutionary. So I would be surprised if battery selection by other companies would have much effect.
    9 Mar 2014, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    Don't you see lead-carbon, or rather a battery capable of the demands mild hybrids present, as exceedingly revolutionary?
    9 Mar 2014, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't read too much into it right now - each OEM has their own particular challenges and technical solutions, that they each think is best. They each have a full arsenal of technologies to get them to where they need to go, and they work in an integrated manner, so it will be very hard to make any general conclusions from this.

     

    The interesting thing is how the customers respond to the packages being released; those that have gone mild hybrid (GM, Honda) have both pulled back to go micro hybrid - word is that the customers don't get the value prop (they see the costs, but don't see enough from the fuel savings). Honda is going forward with micro and full hybrid (leaving mild behind).
    9 Mar 2014, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    If micro-hybrids advance to a point hat they're getting 15% fuel economy gains without the incremental cost! much of the rationale for mild hybrids will evaporate.
    9 Mar 2014, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Exactly that.
    9 Mar 2014, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    festein ... "those that have gone mild hybrid (GM, Honda) have both pulled back to go micro hybrid - word is that the customers don't get the value prop (they see the costs, but don't see enough from the fuel savings). "

     

    As you suggest, what ultimately matters is how customers respond to packages actually marketed. I'm a bit reluctant, though, to accept the "don't get the value prop" explanation for lagging sales in some models at face value or to attribute all failure to see enough fuel savings to mpg issues. Haven't all recent hybrid offerings (mild or strong) utilized Li-ion battery packs? Li-ion battery packs have taken a number of bad publicity dings in the past two years -- Nissan all electric packs not holding up as advertised, Tesla autos burning, GM Volts burning, Honda Civic hybrid battery packs encountering service life issues inside three years are Li-ion dings I am aware of.

     

    Further, petroleum product prices have more or less flatlined in the past year (+/- a few months) but there are multiple reasons to anticipate sustained pressures on consumers to reduce the share of family expenditures on gas/diesel. Growth in "emerging economy" oil consumption with costs of oil production rising can be expected to support a rising oil price relative to many other goods and services.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    James, I'll pick on you.

     

    I think you are wearing rose colored glasses.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    But I would think that in order for micro-hybrids to have advanced to the point they they're getting 15% fuel economy gains means 1) they either advanced into mild hybrid territory, or 2) if they didn't, then mild-hybrids can exploit those very same gains and then go beyond and add to them by the further electrification which mild-hybridization brings...

     

    In the end I guess it will be a matter of "how much fuel do you want to save?" And that of course will depend on both the price of fuel, as well as the price of the added hybridization measures.

     

    In other words, economic gravity will win.
    10 Mar 2014, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    The real problem with mild hybrid and above is that the electric machine needs to be integrated into the drivetrain, and there is a cost step when this happens; this is independent to the battery being used.

     

    With a full hybrid, the costs are there, but there is also a meaningful, and critically, noticeable reduction in fuel use.

     

    If oil costs escalate it will all probably spur greater interest in higher degrees of hybridization - but will also stimulate greater interest in alternative fuels (more of these will become economic as the oil price increases).

     

    From an economic perspective, micro-hybrid is VERY hard to beat - and the hurdle to dislodge will only increase as better battery technology, such as Axion, come though the tech dev process.
    11 Mar 2014, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • festein
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, at the end of the day it will still come down to the lowest cost way of meeting CO2/MPG regulations - such that the dogs still eat the do food. Whether 15% is hit or not by micro hybrid, any improvements in DCA will continue to steal the benefits of further hybridization.
    11 Mar 2014, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    "any improvements in DCA will continue to steal the benefits of further hybridization."

     

    I'm confused by the "steal" concept here--I would think that improvements in DCA would actually enable and foster further hybridization.
    11 Mar 2014, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    48, My impression concerning his message is that as lower cost systems become more efficient there is less incentive to add additional system hybridization which in turn adds more cost. The key is to think about the targets that need to be met.
    11 Mar 2014, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    True, but if you look at the Kia drivetrain for instance, what is the incremental on-cost over a strict SS/MH? The BSG is already there. Then there's the supercharger. And then four batteries instead of two. So certainly there is some delta. But ISTM it has the potential to yield substantially greater economy benefits as those components evolve and are further optimized together as experience and insight are gained, leaving basic SS/MH in the dust. Also, I just have a hard time seeing how basic SS/MH can ever achieve that 15%... I mean through what mechanism? More DCA...meaning more engine off time...and more coasting/sailing.... but that's only going to get you so far... without brake regen ISTM it's a dead end. But then once you add no kidding brake regen? Well then you're in beefier BSG territory anyway, So why not add the supercharger and heftier batteries?

     

    I agree there's a sweet spot... a particular degree of electrification that's going to yield the greatest economy delta for the least investment. Provided the right battery is available at the right price (ie PbC), I think it's located somewhere well to the right of basic SS/MH, yet also somewhere to the left of full heavy hybridization.

     

    Somewhere right about where Kia seems to be landing.
    11 Mar 2014, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    JP:
    Which of your blogs validates that a 3 battery "mini-string" is the sweet spot for PbC and may be why a 3 battery solution is being used instead of a single battery?
    9 Mar 2014, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    I think you've read more into one of my comments than the comment contained. The PbC performs better in a string than other batteries. It makes no difference whether the string has three batteries or 56. AFAIK there is no particular sweet spot.
    9 Mar 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (974) | Send Message
     
    By "sweet spot" I meant the inherent string equalization that is unique to PbC. Doesn't that provide an advantage that other batteries can't match. Doesn't that make this use of a string instead of a single larger battery inherently better?
    9 Mar 2014, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    GT, I think the "string" behavior obtains regardless of whether one is talking about several discrete batteries externally wired in series... e.g. the ePower string, the Kia string of 4 batteries etc... or one single large battery that nevertheless internally contains many individual cells arranged in series. A large battery is really just a string anyway, only housed in one case instead of many. It's still just a large group of identical cells connected in series. It's the individual cell characteristic behavior that matters, not the physical arrangement. And that is determined purely by the chemistry. In PbC's case it's the shape of the charge/discharge curve versus internal resistance that yields our superior behaviour, ie cells at a lower SOC (for a certain broad section of the curve) absorb energy more readily than those at a higher SOC. Different chemistries have different shaped curves, which can lead to divergent behavior in a series string, like what NSC found in the first 999 with AGM chemistry. PbC is fundamentally different and its chemistry results in the passive convergent equalization that has been observed with PbC cells in series and is, if IIUC, really quite a beautiful thing... ;)
    9 Mar 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The inherent self equalization of the PbC cells is a big advantage regardless of whether you're talking about a single battery, which is actually a six cell monoblock, or a string of 56 batteries that have a grand total of 336 cells. Regardless of the length of the string, the stronger cells will support the weaker strings and make the behavior of the whole more efficient.
    9 Mar 2014, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    Anyone care to offer an informed guesstimate of auto OEM cost for 12V SLI batteries installed in high volume 2013-2014 models such as Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla/Matrix, Ford Explorer?

     

    A rough rule of thumb discount to aftermarket retail pricing?
    9 Mar 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, Here's an example of pricing. 7 years ago this part and many slight variations were being sold to automotive for around 2.75 USD/pc FOB the manufacturing plant w/o retail packaging and made in the US. It was fully scaled with annual volumes in the 7 to 8 million unit range. Moved to China as it was too expensive.

     

    I doubt that you will see this level of price difference between OE and retail batteries due to material input being a far larger part of the cost to manufacture. I just bought a 600 CCA flooded LAB from the same place for 60 USD as I found an online promo code that took 40 USD off the 100 price listed.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cHhHhG
    9 Mar 2014, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    A couple years ago I called Frost & Sullivan and asked them what the average OEM price for starter batteries was in the US. While I don't have detailed notes and am going strictly from memory, the number was roughly $60 for a flooded battery and roughly $120 for an AGM, which ties to several statements from JCI that their AGM battery sales generate 2x the per unit revenue and 3x the per unit margin.
    9 Mar 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    iinde, Petersen ... Thanks for the info. Interesting data.
    9 Mar 2014, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    Question. Could Axion sell C electrode assemblies sufficient for 1K - 2K PbC batteries without running afoul of SEC disclosure regs?
    9 Mar 2014, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4819) | Send Message
     
    >D-inv ... More than likely. You're only talking about electrodes for about 140 to 290 completed batteries. As a one time sale it might be considered significant but over several Q's it wouldn't register at all. Axion does sell some PbC's ... just not many at a time.
    9 Mar 2014, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    http://1.usa.gov/1gjvExn

     

    For the (very) inquisitive...

     

    Short version: An extensive teardown and analysis yields that the camry hybrid has about a 70KW motor, *not* 105KW as claimed, but even then the battery only ever supplies max 30KW of boost...
    9 Mar 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1naMVSo

     

    There's a bit of mis-labeling with the title, but the list is interesting nonetheless. The VW looks like a compelling contender even with no hybridization. Imagine if it becomes mated with some degree of electrification as well. Some of the blurbs about Kia mention adaptability to diesel powerplants so it's not that far-fetched. In any case, should be an interesting landscape going forward...
    9 Mar 2014, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • tahoe1780
    , contributor
    Comments (111) | Send Message
     
    A scary story for a dark and rainy night (here in Oregon anyway)... http://bit.ly/1fPo3eY
    9 Mar 2014, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Here is a reference to an Axion 16 volt battery from a meeting in 2011 of the Electrochemical Society:

     

    Axion has developed a 16V, H8 European DIN size PbC® battery that maintains required hotel load voltages and
    operates at the optimum resistance voltage regime for the device.
    9 Mar 2014, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Here are some DCA details for an "Advanced Graphite Additive for Enhanced Cycle Life of Lead-Acid Batteries."
    This is from a US patent application filed by Exide in July of 2012.

     

    DCA at 500 cycles = 60 amps.
    DCA at 1,000 cycles = 37 amps.
    DCA at 1,500 cycles = 38 amps.
    DCA at 2,000 cycles = 34 amps.
    DCA at 2,500 cycles = 39 amps.
    DCA at 3,000 cycles = 33 amps.
    DCA at 3,500 cycles = 39 amps.
    DCA at 4,000 cycles = 35 amps.
    DCA at 4,500 cycles = 28 amps.
    DCA at 5,000 cycles = 39 amps.
    DCA at 5,500 cycles = 32 amps.
    DCA at 6,000 cycles = 34 amps.
    DCA at 6,500 cycles = 32 amps.
    DCA at 7,000 cycles = 31 amps.
    DCA at 7,500 cycles = 35 amps.
    DCA at 8,000 cycles = 29 amps.
    DCA at 8,500 cycles = 30 amps.
    DCA at 9,000 cycles = 18 amps.
    DCA at 9,500 cycles = 17 amps.

     

    These results are significantly better than those achieved from the standard lead-acid batteries with no carbon or graphite mix added. However, they are overall about 12% worse than the results that Exide got from lead-acid batteries
    with a standard battery grade carbon graphite mix. So, overall, these particular batteries from Exide are already behind other batteries with a standard additive that Exide
    and their competition already have for sale.

     

    When these DCA numbers are viewed in a graph, it is quite apparent that the DCA in amperes has a notable amount of variation in the obtained results. Note the spike up in DCA at 5,000 cycles.
    9 Mar 2014, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4843) | Send Message
     
    Interesting DCA data, 393~. The most striking thing to me is the 60 amp figure for 500 cycles. It is my impression that effective use braking energy recovery systems for mild and stronger hybrid systems require capacity to absorb 100 (150?) amps or more.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Those datapoints would be more informative I think if "cycle" were defined (start and end points) and it were known at what SOC they were taken at... IE are these shallow cycles or deep? Near the top of SOC or more intermediate?

     

    Regardless, the trend seems pretty plain--a steep drop off in DCA and a slow uneven decay after that but more or less stable around 30 amps. Note that for four batteries at 48V, even 30 amps is only like 1.5 KW... or merely 15% of what the CPT SpeedStart's BSG (max rating of 10KW) is capable of producing when regenerating from hard braking.

     

    Also note that we know the 30H PbC can take 236 amps without much of a sweat.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:53 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (439) | Send Message
     
    Yes, absolutely right. The standard graphite additive batteries that are listed in Exide's data set and graph started at a DCA of 46 amps, dropped to 41 amps at 1,000 cycles, then peaked at 51 amps at 1,500 cycles, then quickly dropped to 33 amps by 2,500 cycles. Both the standard additive and the Exide advanced additive performed with notable variation
    throughout their entire life-cycle.

     

    Interestly enough, the lead-acid batteries with no additive performed with the least amopunt of variation in their DCA. Those batteries started with a DCA of 39 amps, and then trailed off and deteriorated at basically a 4 to 1 slope to end up with a DCA of only 10 amps after 6,500 cycles.
    9 Mar 2014, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
     
    User 39, Interesting, but the devil is always in the details. The test protocol is necessary to evaluate the importance of the data.

     

    As a side note, I'm curious as you are far more knowledgeable in his area than I. Have you ever seen one fragment of information where JCI has pushed carbon additives to the NAM as a solution for any application at all? I have only seen them ever mention it in public once and it was in an ANALysts meeting IIRC 2 years ago. All they indicated was that there are issues.

     

    BTW, Thanks for your posts!
    10 Mar 2014, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30629) | Send Message
     
    The importance of the Exide DCA numbers is twofold.

     

    First, the rule of thumb in micro-hybrids is that a city driver will have 1 engine off event per kilometer. Losing 3/4 of your DCA over 5,000 miles of driving means the battery is worthless in months.

     

    Second, the automakers want a minimum of 100 amps of DCA for simple stop-start, although they'd really prefer 150 amps.
    10 Mar 2014, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    I'm pasting all the comments about hybrid partners from Axion's past 10Qs. They are in line with what Kia is proposing.

     

    Q4 2012 (from 10K and Q2 2012 10Q)
    "Work continues with the hybrid vehicle manufacturers we have been working with for the past several years. Third party testing continues under protocol developed with our longest standing OEM partner. We have also been in discussions with a new top 5 vehicle manufacturer regarding partnering with them on advanced stage testing of a two battery system. As we have previously reported, the interest of several OEM's has been fueled by our White Paper that highlights the importance of "charge acceptance" in battery products designed for the micro hybrid and stop start markets."

     

    Q1 2013
    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work has entered a new phase. The OEM, in an anticipated effort to insure they will not have a "sole source" issue, has asked us to pursue with them, an alternate provider of our final product. Since this initiative is in keeping with our long stated future strategy ("to become the leading supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry"), we embraced the process. We are a few months into that program and it is going well."

     

    Q2 2103
    "Our hybrid passenger vehicle work continues. Our OEM partner asked us to work with an alternate manufacturer of our product so as to
    insure there will not be a “sole source provider” issue in the future. To date, the collaborative results have been productive from a manufacturing
    feasibility standpoint and the work continues. As long stated, since this initiative is in keeping with our future strategy (“to become the leading
    supplier of carbon electrode assemblies for the global lead-acid battery industry”), we have embraced the process."

     

    Q3 2013
    "As mentioned in our second quarter, we have been working with an additional partner with respect to the manufacture of a product for the hybrid passenger vehicle market. That work has continued in the third quarter. We have made modifications along the way and will continue to do so with the concurrence of our OEM strategic partner."
    9 Mar 2014, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Nicholas Chen
    , contributor
    Comments (2797) | Send Message
     
    Old article from Nov 2012 about the Valeo supercharger. It predicted production levels around 2015-2016. The great thing is the number of OEMs looking at it, which ups our odds of being chosen by at least one.

     

    "Valeo currently has test programs with 10 auto makers for applications with turbocharged gasoline engines, he says. As many as three of those could hit the market in the 2015-2016 timeframe."

     

    "Test programs are in place with six auto makers covering turbodiesel applications, with up to two production programs expected in 2015-2016. Three OEs are considering the supercharger for naturally aspirated engines, one of which could appear on the market in that same timeframe."

     

    http://bit.ly/WN7mSq
    9 Mar 2014, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (4041) | Send Message
     
    Every unique metric of the PbC we speak of seems to me a reasonable result (hypothetically speaking) of the replacement of the negative lead electrode with a carbon electrode. Its' DCA, durability and cell-string self-equalization (aka "concave-down increasing" behavior) are a result of the means by which charge carriers are "held" at the negative carbon electrode. The same can be said for its' changing output voltage vs SOC. And probably its' "airport test" performance.

     

    With a negative electrode of lead, there is a larger reservoir of charge carriers chemically fixed at a single voltage. AXPW carbon electrode holds fewer charges by means of lesser-strength electrostatic forces and at a VARIETY of potentials, hence they remain highly mobile (and able to equalize) and somewhat dependent on the "tuning" of the carbon during pretreatment. We owe thanks to the Russians mainly on account of their efforts in regards to "tuning" the carbon itself (coconut, pistachio, et.al), which has zero affinity for charges of any sort, so its' activation by oxygenation ("tuning") is essential. I am glad they chose coconuts (high surface area, like 2 grams per football field), but they probably could have made similar-behaving electrodes from musk ox poo.

     

    By the way, the "2 grams per football field" is a continuous covering, think Saran wrap. The activation of the surface area, OTOH, will result in discrete binding sites "sprinkled" on that surface, so there is a lot of potential to vary the performance of the electrode by adjusting the activation.

     

    It follows that if there is any lead in the negative electrode (carbon paste/additive-type batteries), those batteries would act like a typical LAB, albeit perhaps somewhat "buffered", as given the choice charge carriers love metals (lower potential) more than most anything activated carbon can offer.

     

    Lots of folks on the Concentrators spend hours discussing what is financial mumbo-jumbo to me. And I have no doubt that I have lost money in other investments on account of my limited understanding of such matters. At the same time, I am certain there are many who appreciate the fact that that there is no "black box" here. The awesomeness of certain properties of the PbC are reasonable. Not to mention a matter of demonstrated fact.
    10 Mar 2014, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (3689) |