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  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    Cool. Took a break from shoveling snow and won first place!
    12 Mar 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    Far, we been traveling far--
    Without a home, but not without a star...

     

    Free, only want to be free--
    We huddle close, hang on to the dream...
    12 Mar 2014, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • CO3
    , contributor
    Comments (251) | Send Message
     
    waiting for 3rd
    12 Mar 2014, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    Definitely 4th here...
    12 Mar 2014, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday the FINRA short sales percentage was 44.3%, which is the maximum I'd expect with three remaining PIPErs who are each limited to 15% of total daily volume. Today the percentage dropped to 12.1%. If the short percentage falls even further on Thursday and Friday, I'll be thinking ZRPSOD (zero remaining PIPE share overhang day) by Saturday.
    12 Mar 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. I had thought that we already saw the effects of ZRPSOD, but good to know it is yet to come! What's even better is that this means that likely the PIPErs were the ones who broke the price, and maybe even today had made their final dump that put the price into the 15s. That means that underlying demand for this stock is stronger than I thought.
    12 Mar 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The cumulative short sales reported by FINRA since January 28th are within 10% of my February 1st estimate of the total remaining non-Parsoon shares. Under the circumstances I think it's way too close to call and we'll have to see what the next few days bring. Very low volume will be an important clue.
    12 Mar 2014, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to a link from
    Tippydog on Paulo Santos's article
    Tesla: We've Got Some Numbers For February

     

    I found a few interesting things.
    While the sample size is small, (Updated to Jan. 1.2014) it seems Tesla's quality control is dropping.
    The had more needed repairs than any other car.
    Most were minor problems wind noise, rattles etc.
    Per 100 cars there were 109 fixes needed.

     

    http://bit.ly/O3p0F0
    http://bit.ly/1iaKZVj

     

    On the Quality front both the Leaf and the Volt needed far more repairs than in previous years as well.
    in 2011 2012 the Leaf had 7 and 6 in 2013 - 49.
    In 2012 the Volt had 37 in 2013 - 57

     

    http://bit.ly/O3p0F3
    12 Mar 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    Well I ended up on Edmunds site and decided to check up on their long term Tesla review.

     

    http://edmu.in/12Aignq

     

    After a year (February) they mostly still like the car.
    Tesla has pretty much cleared up their sitting at the airport loss. (Alt least at LAX.) 4 mi lost in 3 days.
    I haven't seen anything on cold climes recently.

     

    There are fixes that look to be software addressable.
    Some are standard amenities that are just missing.
    A fold down console between the rear seats, grab handles for exiting, hooks for clothes, etc.

     

    Tires seem to be an issue. Premature wear still appears to be a problem.

     

    The number of times they have had to take the car in was wildly excessive.
    This is their third drive assembly and the battery pack is replaced this time as well. Also a few other things need to be fixed.

     

    "He called back about an hour later and said they would be replacing the drive unit and the high-voltage battery assembly. I asked Vince what caused the problems, but he said they don't open up the batteries at the service center. "

     

    "If you're keeping score, our Model S is now on its third drive unit: the one that came with the car, the one that was replaced in November, and this latest one. And that wasn't the only thing that was replaced on this service visit."

     

    "The Tesla dealer also took care of four service bulletins under warranty:

     

    Concern: Front lower control arm washer installation
    Correction: Inspect knuckle/ball joint surfaces, install four front lower control arm washers.

     

    Concern: Firmware update for automatic charge current reduction
    Correction: Update firmware to version 5.8.4

     

    Concern: Front bumper carrier bolt replacement
    Correction: Replace front bumper carrier bolts and washers

     

    Concern: New bolt for rear camber correction
    Correction: Installed rear upper camber adjustment bolts per proactive repair."

     

    Two motors and Four service bulletins for a 1 year old car?
    Why exactly is Edmunds not trashing this car?

     

    "When I first sat down to write this post, I was all fired up, as I tried to picture myself in an owner's shoes. If I had to replace the engine on my car twice — hell, even once — I would swear off the brand forever. But after talking it over with some colleagues, I was reminded that the people who buy Teslas aren't just buying basic transportation. They are early adopters and willing beta testers of a shiny new piece of tech.

     

    In that context, I remembered my experience with my Xbox 360. Early models had high failure rates, which led to the infamous "Red Ring of Death." At the end the console generation, I had gone through three system failures. Not once did I think about ditching the Xbox and gaming exclusively on a Sony PlayStation 3. The Xbox was my preferred piece of tech, and when it broke, I just got it fixed, warranty or not.

     

    Obviously the costs are different and no one relies on an Xbox 360 to get them to work, but the mindset is the same. For those Tesla owners who still love their cars, even in the face of major repairs, I get it."

     

    http://edmu.in/1jXVvyC

     

    Yeah I get it too...
    12 Mar 2014, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    One other thing.
    Not specific to Tesla but:
    "2013 Tesla Model S: Carpool Stickers Are Losing Their Usefulness"
    http://edmu.in/1glUAYQ

     

    In CA. There are so many cars (and growing) getting car pool stickers they are sometimes slower than regular traffic.
    12 Mar 2014, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, TSLA lost their a$$ on that vehicle. Sounds like they have big warranty problems in their primary high cost systems.

     

    Some of the guys here that bought long dated put options might just make a bundle yet.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Tesla is going through the same growing pains now that GM and Ford and Chrysler all went through in the 1920s and 1930s.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    User39, no doubt, however it's a different era as people have more choices and Tesla's offering is a luxury vehicle only w/ no alternatives to offer.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    I agree completely. So, Tesla is in a race to get through those growing pains as quickly as they can and catch up to the rest of the offerings in those market segments that they have chosen to enter.

     

    I, myself, do not feel like paying $100,000 to be a test driver for tesla and to be testing their betaware software. As an aside, the software industry's average for software bugs (logical bugs or coding bugs) is about 1 bug for every 5,000 lines of code. Windows 8 has, I would guess, probably 25 million lines of code.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    IIndelco.
    "TSLA lost their a$$ on that vehicle. Sounds like they have big warranty problems in their primary high cost systems."

     

    The author suggested that "All repairs were performed under warranty and Tesla delivered the car to us the following morning. Tesla didn't note the cost of the parts in its paperwork, but I have to think this repair cost Tesla at least the $5,000. Big 85KwH batteries and electric drive units don't come cheap."

     

    A wild under estimation of the costs.

     

    393748
    They state the dealership knows them well by now.
    1. They've had the handles stuck open.
    2. The doors partly open when they put the car in park.
    3. The rear alignment went out requiring a new set of tires. Tesla paid for.
    4. All of the windows opened when the car was parked.
    5. A broken sunroof.
    6-9 This is the fourth time we've had to reset the touchscreen in our Tesla Model S not including the screen replacement in March. This time, it was because the web-based navigation system was missing large portions of its map."

     

    I'm not sure this is all, but if my 10 year old car had this many problems in 20,000 miles I'd junk it.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    iindelco-->> You will probably agree that it is a nice fiction that the Tesla fan club has going that the Model S is a luxury car. With all the problems that it has, it cannot be seriously called a luxury car. It also seems to be missing features that other high end cars have had since 2007. Remember when people would get lemon Cadillacs and lemon Lincolns in the 1970s and they would go on tv and park the car in front of their dealership with big lemon signs mounted ontop of the car? Those were the days....
    13 Mar 2014, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Froggey, Ignoring the cost of the input material, fixing something after the fact is hugely expensive. The real cost has, generally, nothing to do with the costs of the parts going into the repair.

     

    If this report is even close to even modest below average costs to TSLA, OMG.

     

    For some buyers, thank God, for the lease and the Elon back end price support.
    14 Mar 2014, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • dance621
    , contributor
    Comments (203) | Send Message
     
    So JP if it took a few more days, until the middle of next week we might see After eXiting Pipe Wednesday (A.X.P.W.)?
    12 Mar 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    That merits a gold star for clever acronyms, but if the pattern holds today may have been AXPW.
    12 Mar 2014, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    That would make quite a Hump Day.

     

    http://bit.ly/1iF27AU
    13 Mar 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Larry Meade
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    #314: It seems only yesterday it was 312 or was that the day before yesterday.
    12 Mar 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Has the ePower Day Cab made the trek to Cummins or is the same tuning for the Sleeper able to be directly applied to the Day Cab?
    12 Mar 2014, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The day cab is being rebuilt and should be ready to roll by the end of the month. The sleeper cab is running well, but we want to finish our control system adjustments before we visit Cummins. We expect all the work we're doing on the sleeper to be directly applicable to the day cab. When I have more to talk about I will.
    12 Mar 2014, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    If I could make a suggestion please. This suggestion is not meant to anger anyone nor is it meant to limit free speech. I am new here, but it seems that the Power Host is overwhelmed. Therefore if posters could limit their comments to data points and eliminate the "chatter" it might make the job of the Host much easier. Just a thought.

     

    I also made a comment on the previous Concentrator in response to Retired Aviators thought that the recent Axion stock move was because of the Kia Motors announcement. My opinion was that it was due to the PIPER'rs stock sales exhaustion.

     

    I have not seen that post yet.

     

    Hat's off to all the contributors and to the Power Host for a remarkable job.
    12 Mar 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    There's been an immense amount of market activity in the battery and fuel cell space over the last couple weeks and volumes have soared for many companies in the space. I'm not sure whether the activity of the last week came from the KIA announcement or from increased interest in the sector.
    12 Mar 2014, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Welcome Milo, but please understand that the chatter and banter is what keeps us Axionistas from tearing our hair out and selling in despair when we stare at our absurdly overweight positions in AXPW.

     

    Most here also contribute diligence in whatever capacity that we can. But we need to clown around a bit for sanity's sake. News is so sparse and we are so eager, it makes us chatter when we should be stoic and patient.

     

    Besides, this is social media, not Reuters or the WSJ.
    12 Mar 2014, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • isthisonebetter
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    well put, SMaturin. I think the "chatter" actually contributes substance as well. I want others opinions on every topic. It helps me stay as impartial as possible and it's what I think makes this board so invaluable as a shareholder.

     

    EDIT: Not to diminish APH's efforts, I appreciate them sincerely. But I think cutting back would decrease the quality and value of this board. (Sorry APH!)
    12 Mar 2014, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    I don't mind some level of chatter from such intelligent folk. WiO gave me a great OT tip last concentrator that is now bearing tremendous fruit for me. He advocated using liposomal vitamin C supplements.

     

    I have been following that thread with research and finding some very exciting things so I just may be forever indebted to Wayne. Anyone curious about some amazing vitamin C research I'd suggest check out some Dr. Thomas Levy lectures.
    12 Mar 2014, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2937) | Send Message
     
    Milo, only when the stock goes up 50-100% in a few days will the concentrator get filled with "chatter". It's a high class problem that doesn't happen enough. imho
    13 Mar 2014, 03:13 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1087) | Send Message
     
    RA> I'm happy to hear the Lipo C is working well for you. I'm also happy to hear you've discovered Dr. Thomas Levy, who has quite a compendium of knowledge on Vitamin C therapy. The following article on how to use it to increase the effectiveness and safety of vaccinations may be one of his most important: --- http://bit.ly/1gn7nuf
    13 Mar 2014, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    "it makes us chatter when we should be stoic and patient."

     

    I think many people here have long been stoic and patient. They might be defining characteristics of members of this board.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Alphameister
    , contributor
    Comments (1428) | Send Message
     
    Another big fan of Dr. Levy and Vitamin C, which I've been taking in several forms including liposomal and fat soluble. His book, "Primal Panacea," is a real eye opener. Threw out my calciium supplements after reading his latest book, "Death by Calcium." If the FDA had its way (in serving the interests of big pharma), they would lock up Levy and throw away the key because he exposes their corruption and incompetence.
    14 Mar 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    alpha> Have you had noticeable effects from your vitamin C supplementation?
    14 Mar 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Below are the details on the tests used by Exide as found in Exide's July 2012 US patent application for their Advanced Graphite Additive material:

     

    This patent application was for a 6 volt 24 Ah spiral wound battery. The results of the mDCAT were from a test on a prismatic battery, not the spiral wound.

     

    The following is from the patent application:

     

    To simulate the different conditions in which the battery can work in the vehicle, the tests were conducted at different
    State-of-Charge's (SoC) ranging from 20% to 100%. A constant voltage of 16V was used for 5 seconds at 25° C. for charge acceptance power while a voltage of 10V was used for 10 seconds at 25° C. for discharge power measurement.

     

    A Micro-hybrid dynamic charge acceptance test (mDCAT) was performed on prismatic batteries at 80% SoC. The test cycle included multiple micro-cycles with different discharge currents (i.e., discharge at 48 A for 60 s, discharge at 300 A
    for 1 s, rest for 10 s, charge at 100 A to 100% SoC, discharge at 7 A for 60 s and rest for 10 s) including a high current pulse. The test cycle included a total of 500 microcycles with 6 hour rest time.

     

    Power-assist, cycle life tests were also performed to determine the influence of the three different negative plate
    formulations in the evolution of capacity, voltage, and internal resistance under partial state-of-charge cycling. The
    profile used for testing was based on the European Council for Automotive R&D (EUCAR) procedure for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and had to be repeated 10,000 times (on one unit) with the battery at 60% SoC and 2.5% depth-of-discharge.

     

    The evolution of end voltage, capacity, weight loss, and internal resistance is recorded every 10,000 cycles. The battery was rested for 6 hours after every 10,000 cycles to allow the electrolyte to stabilize. At end of discharge, a voltage of 5V (per 6V module) reached along the cycling, or a battery capacity under 50% of initial value, was considered battery failure criteria. From previous Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium (ALABC) reports, power-assist cycle life in the range 200,000-220,000 cycles has been obtained for different NAM formulations that included additions of different types of graphites and combination carbon black and graphite in the range 1%-1.5%. A non-stop, power-assist, cycle-life test, in which the battery is cycled continuously without rest step at 10,000 cycle intervals, has been devised to simulate real life test conditions.
    This test helps in differentiating the various grades of carbons that produced similar test in a standard, EUCAR, power-assist cycle-life test.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I may be confused but the above never does state the cycle life of Exide's battery with their graphite special sauce added to the negative electrode. Right?

     

    I read above that they tested it in different ways (mDCAT, power-assist HEV) but it doesn't indicate how many cycles they got out of the battery.

     

    It only indicates that 'previous reports' from ALABC achieved 200,000 to 220,000 for OTHER formulations that 'included' graphite and/or carbon black.

     

    So have they published and have we seen these 'previous reports'?

     

    I'm still under the impression that as long as there is lead in the negative electrode the pastes and additives don't change the point of failure, that being sulphation of the lead in the negative electrode.

     

    D
    13 Mar 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    Likewise, DM. I've been around the block enough times to know that if you want to hide your product's weaknesses, just design tests that don't expose them. In this example, discharge quickly at PSoC but don't recharge quickly. Don't have lengthy rest periods, or even none at all. Test at a favorable temperature. Etc., etc., etc.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Dm-->> The cycle life was 145,000 cycles, but, however, the extra performance gained in DCA began to taper off rather quickly.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    WayneinOregon -->>

     

    You asked : "Would you have any kind of guesstimate on how much rigorous testing Kia may have done with their lead carbon battery, particularly in comparison to the years BMW and NS has done with the PbC?"

     

    I would imagine that Kia will be as equally rigorous in testing the various Lead-Acid-Carbon batteries as BMW has been
    with the PbC. Kia has plans for an BEV Soul, to be powered by a Li-Ion battery. Same for BMW; they are working with LiIon, as well as other kinds of batteries. So, if one is asking: how well does Kia know the pros and cons of Lead-Acid-Carbon batteries?, I would think that they are quite familiar with these batteries. My guess would be that they, themselves, have already had the PbC in for testing. If Ford, GM, BMW, Cummins, ePower, all know about the PbC, then it would be nearly impossible for Kia not to know about it as well.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    I found the following in a Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 2012 report on consolidation in the lithium-ion battery space.

     

    "Recent developments in Lead-acid batteries (called Enhanced Flooded Battery ) have now be presented and are likely to become a viable and cost effective solution for start-stop and micro-hybrid applications. Companies like JCI, Exide, Banner, Moll, Shin Kobe, GS-Yuasa and others will probably be able to offer Lead-based products that will meet start-stop and micro-hybrid requirements exceeding 200,000 km or 6 to 8 years of operation at lower system costs than lithium-ion batteries.

     

    Note how the info from the Exide patent application has the same numerical reference to cycle life as is mentioned in this
    report. The Exide patent application cites the Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Consortium (ALABC) as their source.

     

    I remember reading an auto research report from possibly 2009 or 2010 that also talked of how JCI, Exide et cetera
    would have batteries suitable for all the micro-hybrid vehicles for the next ten years.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    "I remember reading an auto research report from possibly 2009 or 2010 that also talked of how JCI, Exide et cetera would have batteries suitable for all the micro-hybrid vehicles for the next ten years."

     

    Which begs the ultimate question, are shareholders in Axion getting strung along on the automotive front?

     

    Not saying anything one way or another, just saying.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    -->> Stephan... All the test results and the comments from Dr. Ed Buiel (sp.) show that theses additives are not going to work for the micro-hybrid marketplace. As someone else mentioned, only the PbC can recharge as quickly as it can discharge.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    User 393748 -

     

    I agree with your and Dr. Buiel's assessments on Pbc tech, and at this point in time, I also agree with Dr. Buiel's assessment of mgt (although I reserve the right to change my opinion if given a proper factual basis).

     

    Notwithstanding the above, the proof is also in the proverbial pudding, or the adoption of the technology by some entity on a recurring basis.

     

    Of course if we had the proof, the stock wouldn't be trading where it's at ...
    13 Mar 2014, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    I agree....the serving up of the main course of pudding would be a welcome treat.

     

    I keep on having to remind myself that these are slow moving businesses. It is difficult to watch and wait for the paint to dry - at a snail's pace, but at the same time, we really don't have access to all the behind the scene's info. It could be that if we did, not many of us would have the money to buy many shares in this company.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Allow me to edit my own post and rephrase what I had said about the charge/recharge capacities of the PbC....it does more than recharge as quickly as it can discharge; It can discharge for as long as ten minutes, and it can be recharged in less than a minute. So, it can actually recharge in less than one tenth of the time it can take to fully discharge.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1688) | Send Message
     
    I am with you Stefan. My frustration with current management has reached a point I am afraid where I will sell out and Move. Nothing suggests to me - besides pbc great potential- that we actually have the right people in place to drive this company forward. Sad but those are the facts.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    393748: That's great info. Do you happen to know if there's any substantial heat issues associated with that long discharge ... or even the fast recharge. I'm suspecting the discharge would be more problem as I guess heavy chemical activity has to occur to maintain 10 minutes discharge?

     

    The reason I ask is we've been speculating that Norfolk's delay might be related to handling the heat of 864 batteries getting up to 200 amp inflows and we don't know what outflows.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2014, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    393748:

     

    "It could be that if we did, not many of us would have the money to buy many shares in this company."

     

    I have bet that you are correct.

     

    However, on the flip side, and given the lack of communication, it could be that if we really knew what was currently going on, that none of us would have put up any money to buy shares in this company.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • D Lane
    , contributor
    Comments (1419) | Send Message
     
    Amouna, don't sell out and Move. Just sell and wait around for news.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    "However, on the flip side, and given the lack of communication, it could be that if we really knew what was currently going on, that none of us would have put up any money to buy shares in this company."

     

    Let's be real here. Axionistas know more about Axion than they do about any other company whose stock they own. We are here because JP has done a wonderful job educating us, along with the contributions of many Axionistas. TG has not given us less info than any other CEO would. Even if there were nothing going on, he's not expected to come out and say it. That would make it 100% certain nothing will ever happen either. I still support TG because I believe the timetable is truly out of his hands. For example, how many UltraBatteries have been sold?
    13 Mar 2014, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    I know JP personally, admire his writing, and think he has done an exceptional job of writing on the battery industry. At the same time, there are many reasonable interpretations of the available data points. Reading Dr. Buiel's comments demonstrate that.

     

    My point is, people are quick to attack J. Rambo, who I also consider a troll. However, if some people had considered his positions and sold out years ago, they would currently be better off.

     

    I enjoy the research probably more than anybody, and I accept Dr. Buiel's analysis from years ago that the PbC is better in all respects than carbon additives and the ultrabattery. However, he has not been with the company for a couple years now.

     

    So has anything changed? I don't know. What I do know is that I can't wait to see ePower out on the road with a couple tractors collecting data which can be shouted from the highest rooftops.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    With all due respect to Dr. Buiel, he is a scientist, not a businessman or salesman. His advice was to just get it out there - yet in the multitude of instances we've seen, all prospective customers take ages to complete their projects. We know about BMW, GM, and another automaker. We know that other rail companies have talked to Axion. We know about trucks besides ePower. Several applications of PCs have been explored, including solar, Multilink, Rosewater, Navy, NYC grid, PJM, CA grid.

     

    The unfortunate truth is that all the applications the PbC are suited for require new systems that not only take time to design but take time to bite the economic bullet. I believe the time is nigh and do not blame TG for the delay. It's simply economics and regulation. I accept responsibility for not understanding this better when I first bought in.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    There is no doubt that my understanding has grown by leaps and bounds since I found this niche area. However, my beef is with lack of communication and creativity, as determined from a public view of the company.

     

    I have no clue what has occurred behind the scenes, but have given way more credit to what might be occurring than is warranted by the verifiable facts.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    User 39,

     

    I think you have a misunderstanding of the bio-carbon's charging limits, or I am not understanding your comment. It cannot be "recharged" in less than a minute. At best, perhaps 50% of the capacity could be recharged in about 10 minutes. This is still an excellent charging rate.

     

    Your comment that it can "discharge for as long as ten minutes" does not make sense to me. Of course it can discharge for ten minutes; ten hours would be even better for it. The question, which I do not know the answer, is can it repetitively fully discharge (or 90% discharge) in much less than ten minutes and not overheat.

     

    The very high cycle numbers that have been cited for the bio-carbon are very shallow discharges (5-10%, IIRC), not for full discharges.

     

    Note that all batteries, with a very shallow discharge, can cycle a lot. The bio-carbon, as readers here know, does exceptionally well and does much better than its competitors
    13 Mar 2014, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Before you took a vacation from the board, you had stated that you may or may not be working on utilizing the PbC in some fashion. As a result, you also mentioned NDAs. I don't exactly remember what you said, but I was wondering if your views had evolved at all since then?
    13 Mar 2014, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    Stefan,

     

    I have not been following Axion while away. I am not working on any PbC projects. It appears almost nothing has changed in nine months (except for this week's little run-up and settle back). Is there some substantive changes I have missed?

     

    My opinion of Axion's insistence on onerous and ridiculous NDAs is unchanged: stupid and economically damaging.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    We Axionistas have spent the last three years or so grappling with a huge riddle and somehow trying to come to terms with it---namely, if the PbC is so great, so superior, such a no-brainer, and so useful in several desperately needed, under-served applications, then why hasn't it yet taken the world by storm?

     

    At least part of the answer may lie right here in what just might be the greatest cartoon of all time:

     

    http://bit.ly/1gnU5h0

     

    I mean, incandescently brilliant, no?

     

    Here I think the phenomenon of the ongoing carbon-paste fiesta is instructive.

     

    Look at how much of the upcoming 14ELBC conference schedule

     

    http://bit.ly/1iBolZ7

     

    is focused on lead-carbon enhancements, PSOC applications, hybrid vehicles, DCA etc etc..

     

    Sure looks like the world is eventually coming to us, whether they like it or not, to Axion and the PbC, but for some reason it must be bitter, bitter medicine, because they sure seem to be resisting on all fronts and trying to get where they need to be with carbon pastes instead. I mean, nobody's exactly knocking down our door for sales amirite?

     

    So we gotta ask ourselves, why? Why does something that looks so clear to us persist so? Why does it persist in confounding what we know to be right year after year after year? I mean, there *should be* powercubes by the dozens out there all over the country right now. There *should be* SS/MH cars out there on the roads of europe and America, by the tens of thousands with PbC+FLA right now. There *should be* at least ten PbC-powered electric locomotives and switchers out on the rails right now proving out the application for replication into the hundreds. Should be. But no. Not yet. And sometimes it seems like maybe not ever. Whyfore?

     

    I gotta think that it's this: It's the industry and the vast customer base wanting what it can't have. It's the big industry players continuing in denial, refusing to make the leap, instead persisting in believing that if only they can make sufficiently enough incremental steps that will get them there instead. Ergo, the magic carbon-paste pixie dust, the great lead hope. The PbC is just *too* different. They hate it. They all hate it. It's foreign and too big a leap and entails too many changes and too many compromises. It's way out of their comfort zone. Instead what they want is this:

     

    The lead-acid battery perfected. They want everything that's good and familiar about conventional Lead-Acid, the amazing cranking amps, the low self-discharge, the familiar flat voltage curve, the temperature performance, the energy and power density, the low cost, the recycle-ability...etc etc.. all the good things. All the things they're so used to. All the oems, the battery men, the engineers, they know lead-acid, they love-lead acid, they know how to work with lead-acid, they're comfortable with it. It's safe. And that's what they want. But a few big problems. The sulfation. The limited and limiting DCA. The divergent string behavior. These are all irritations. Sometimes major irritations. But in most legacy applications heretofore they've been limited to just that--irritations. But now, now they're becoming show-stoppers. Applications are evolving. Applications that demand PSOC performance and high charge acceptance. Things that Lead-acid was never really asked to do before. The wave is coming. There have been plenty of shots across the bow. But institutional inertia is huge. And those not bound by it? The new thinkers? Well, mostly they are in the lithium-ion game, I mean that's where the action is, right? Where all the love money and young blood is. Lithium-Ion FTW!!!

     

    But back to the lead-acid world. Where things move at a slower pace. They want what they want. They want their precious lead-acid batteries, the one's they've always known.. they want to keep those, they just want to make them better, fix them, somehow find the right carbon-paste secret sauce and make those pesky PSOC and DCA problems go away. They want their cake and to eat it to. They don't want to make the leap to something as radical as the PbC. So thus all the carbon sauce efforts. They still believe that will solve the problems well enough so that they can keep what they have. They're still deeply in that stage of trying everything else, everything else that's safe and incremental, that keeps what they're comfortable with, that's where all their energy is now. A departure like the PbC is too scary. It brings with it challenges and downsides they don't want to have to deal with. The sloping voltage curve, the reduced energy content, the self-discharge, the somewhat fewer cranking amps... But they want perfection. And they think they will find it with carbon sauce. And who knows, they may yet. They're still working it out. Top men. And so they resist PbC. It's too hard. It's not what they know. It's not the perfection they want. It's too different. So it will continue to be resisted. It will not be embraced by the industry until just about everything else is tried. Welcome to our world.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Rick,

     

    Sorry, I thought you had previously shared an experience with Axion and NDAs.

     

    Nothing really has changed, except the 320K Bysolar sale in response to a repeated prediction of significant sale and ePower seems close to having its first truck on the road.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    The three most important words in the lead-acid sector:

     

    NOT INVENTED HERE

     

    It's very hard to convince a manufacturer of a commodity product that somebody else did something very new and very different that's beyond their capacity to duplicate.

     

    When I addressed the ELBC in Paris I said:

     

    "The lead battery industry has a 100-year history of commoditization. You all have similar supply chains, plants and products, and you all compete based on quality, price and service. Cooperation and collaboration is rare. It’s fertile ground for complacent, risk-adverse inertia.

     

    Historically your biggest challenge was capturing market share and controlling costs.

     

    Going forward your major challenges include:

     

    • Responding to change and serving new needs
    • Finding ways to fill the white space between what your batteries do and what your customers need
    • Building manufacturing capacity fast enough to serve soaring demand

     

    We’re standing at the brink of a new era where energy storage is a key enabling technology.

     

    The battery industry must reinvent itself in response to changing conditions.

     

    You must share a core vision that embraces technological change, encourages best practices, supports research and development, and relies on competitive collaboration to speed innovation."

     

    Most industry participants haven't absorbed the message yet.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    John, Your last sentence was what I was thinking as I absorbed your post almost from the beginning. After watching GM as an insider for a good period one gains a very good understanding of what I'll can inertial addiction. Very much supported by large amounts of self preservation. All comes down to the fact that too many in power force the thought that it's better to die slowly of starvation than cut your own throat.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    Stefan, yes, I signed an NDA with Axion regarding a project. Clearly I cannot say much about it. The project is not ongoing. I did not learn anything interesting, or see anything that in my opinion should not already have been on their website.

     

    Hence my opinion of their NDA silliness.
    13 Mar 2014, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    481> Yes. Keep in mind that lead conferences are attended by sellers of lead and lead technologies with presenters representing lead sellers. Since they are locked out of the PbC due to patents they have to try something else, i.e. carbon pastes. Some in the industry also have an incentive to continue to have 2 lead electrodes vs 1 in order to sell more lead. So the motives within the lead-acid industry to avoid PbC are not hard to see.

     

    As for the -users- of battery products, OEMs, they have to undergo great expense to redesign products from the bottom up. They have to be certain through extensive testing that the products don't flop or prove uncompetitive.

     

    Thus the pickle of Axion to be in the middle of the 2 groups. One group wants to downplay or ignore the PbC. The other group wants NDAs and silence on their progress developing products around the PbC. Kind of the innovator's dilemma to have something great that nobody wants to stand up and say is great (except ePower).

     

    All the carbon paste attention could be viewed as ganging up against Axion, or it could be viewed as an act of desperation for them to have something of their own that suffices without having to license PbC from Axion at who knows what cost. I think the battery companies hate to think that if PbC takes off they will be left in the dust.

     

    The fly in the ointment of this theory is that if battery companies truly are worried that PbC could be so disruptive, then why not buy out Axion? They could do a strategic bid or tender or just accumulate shares to own at least some interest in PbC as a hedge. That no player seems to want this suggests they either understand that the PbC is not as great as we think, or those companies are managed by not the best and brightest. I'm betting the latter and I'm betting big.
    13 Mar 2014, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    Rick, Stefan mentioned the $320k sale (600 PbCs) for a solar power project which announced in November 2013. Norfolk Southern released its annual "Sustainability Report" in July (months ahead of its usual schedule) naming Axion Power as its partner in development of an all electric switcher locomotive that would be completed by year end (yet to be seen). In September, Norfolk Southern co-presented with Axion an update on development of electric locomotives at an ASME conference in Altoona, Pa and Vani Dantam joined Multilink in their exhibition booth at a cable industry conference in Atlanta. (MultiLink's online catalog includes a power supply product (EB1s) supporting use of PbC as well as AGMs and GEL LABs, but means of acquiring PbCs are not evident.)

     

    Earlier this year, Axion announced creation of a new director slot and appointed David T. DiGiacinto(http://bit.ly/O8zrXP) . You may already be aware of the March 5 hiring of James A. Smith as a transportation industry consultant (http://bit.ly/1mV1M3l).
    13 Mar 2014, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    No photo of the installation of the Bysolar unit w/ PbCs yet. NaDA on announcements.

     

    Even a hooker that has no formal training understands the importance of marketing.

     

    Come on Axion. Wake up.
    13 Mar 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    ... "continuing in denial" ...

     

    could be :-)

     

    http://bit.ly/1iGKEwA
    13 Mar 2014, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Lmao.
    13 Mar 2014, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Rick -->> I am not sure, but we may be talking about two different battery types. I probably left my post open to interpetation, but my comments regarding charge/discharge were in reference to the Axion PbC.
    In the Axion Whitepaper, in the section entitled
    "3.3. PbC® Battery Real-World DCA Solutions",
    it shows a DCA charge time of less than 50 seconds at the test's max amp rate of 100 amps. The data show
    it for up to 100,000 cycles.

     

    As for the PbC being able to discharge for ten minutes, I seem to recall that being a quote from TG. I got the impression that that was ten minutes at max dishcharge current. It was either a quote from TG or i may have heard it in a tv interview or youtube vid.
    14 Mar 2014, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Stephan-->> Axion has proved to be a very tough call when it comes to making a buy on it. For sure, the safer and more conservative route would have been, or currently is, to wait until they could show that they had sales happening, or even more conservative, wait until positive cash flow with a profit margin already in the rearview mirror. But, having said that, IMHO, stocks with the potential that Axion has are very rare and if one waits too long, well then it is a case of -- you snooze, you lose. Its a tough call.
    14 Mar 2014, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    HTL--->> That is a good question. I do recall that NS had made mention in one of their reports that heat from the batteries was a problem to get fixed.

     

    I have read that even capacitors can have heat problems. But since the PbC involves an electrostatic
    mechanism, that should serve to keep a check on heat buildup. I will have to do some more research on that issue.

     

    Note that what can be thought of as the formatting layer in some Li-Ion batteries can break down at 110 degrees Celsius or 220 degrees Farenheit. At that point, it is game over.

     

    So, if NS was having problems with heat build up with the PbC batteries, then one can imagine the concerns over heat build up in a train setup with using Li-Ion batteries. Actually, what it would mean is that any train locos that are going to try using Li-Ion batteries, then they will be limited as to what Li-Ion battery chemistries they could consider using. It is that or make sure that the cooling system is failsafe. One thing they would not want to do is to do what Boeing did with the Dreamliner and wire the cooling fans so that the cooling fans got their electrical power from the Li-Ion battery that they were to keep cool. We know that that didn't work out too well.
    14 Mar 2014, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    393748: Thanks. I don't *know* (NSC) had heat problems with the PbC. We know the prior non-PbC had heat problems, among other things.

     

    With the lower internal resistance I guess the PbC would have less of a heat problem, at least. I'm thinking that if NSC is delaying for a major rework of the air(?) cooling system it's likely one of those err on the conservative side deals because they don't want to look bad again. They may never run the unit there (out of their territory) but probably designing as if it would run in Death valley or, almost as good, Yuma AZ.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2014, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    User 39, we are talking about the same battery. I use the term "bio-carbon" hoping that somebody in New Castle will wake up and realize how truly a poor naming choice is "PBC" , an arbitrary, unmemorable three letter abbreviation. Its only consumer perception (for those that took chemistry) is (poisonous, polluting) lead.

     

    The report you cited is discussing a very shallow depth of discharge. I can't lay my hands on the report right now, but as I remember the 100 amp rate was for charging from approximately 78% full to 80% full. The 30HT is a nominal 70 amp/hr battery, so one minute at 100 amps is is about 1.6 amps/hrs of charge, about 2% of capacity. I am not aware of any other lead-based battery of this size capable of accepting 100 amp charging, so this is a very positive aspect of the bio-carbon battery.

     

    Ten minutes discharge at 100 amps is 16 amp/hrs, well within the 30HT capacity. Many lead-based batteries can discharge at similar rates, however, they will not have a long life. A flooded or traditional AGM 30HT has a capacity of over 100 amp/hrs.

     

    It can be confusing. :)
    14 Mar 2014, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    FWIW ePower is regularly hitting its 56 battery string with regenerative braking charges in the 800-volt, 240 amp range. (see 7:00 minute mark)

     

    http://bit.ly/1oTtE3w

     

    So far the batteries are taking everything we throw at them without flinching.
    14 Mar 2014, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    796 volts across 56 batteries is 14.2 V per battery. While this is a bit over many AGM specs, with good controls and short charging regimes, ie, braking, it will be interesting to see how well the batteries last.

     

    Overcharging at 14.2 V will likely permanently impair the capacity. However, controlled bulk charging in the 20-80% SoC may well be successful. This range is also where very high (> 200 amps) charging would be possible. Thanks for the clip, JP.

     

    I believe Bio-carbons (PbC) have the same voltage constraints of regular AGM batteries. The "goo" is basically a thickened sulphuric acid and water mix, and AFAIK essentially the same for both conventional and bio-carbon AGMs. Excess voltage will electrolyze the H2O, which creates non-escaping bubbles on the electrodes. Bubbles mean there is electrolyte no longer in contact with the electrode, and therefore capacity is reduced. I do not know the exact voltages, times, and temperatures that would create bubbles in bio-carbons; I do not think it has been published. Further complicating the equation, I do not believe all the variables are linear.
    14 Mar 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    Rick: ISTR that something Axion published (patents maybe?) discussed something that reduced gassing effects. Maybe it was a lower acid concentration or maybe somethig to do with the way the charge was stored? I also recall that "stratification" of the electrolyte was reduced.

     

    I wish I was more technical and well informed about this - maybe then I could do more than ask questions and partly recall some arcane bit of info.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2014, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Axion has not expressed any concern that we're hitting the batteries too hard (yet). Historically we sent them charge discharge detail after the conclusion of every trip, but we're currently upgrading to a real-time system that will give them detail while we're running down the road. Every month or two they'll pull a random battery out of the string and take it back to New Castle for tear down analysis. While they're not sharing the detail on what the tear down analysis shows, our warranty discussions are all moving in the right direction as Axion gets increasingly confident about the PbC's durability in our application.

     

    Another video that shows real time fuel burn rates and elevation changes is here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1mTSxgr
    14 Mar 2014, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    U 393 ... Dunno about TG statements but just read Ed Buiel comment yesterday stating the 16V PbC could sustain "hotel" functions for 10 minutes in micro start/stop application.
    14 Mar 2014, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    No sound, eh?

     

    Time for Theme song nominations ...

     

    http://bit.ly/1gqa7H9
    14 Mar 2014, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    or JP CB handle nominations ...

     

    How I've missed the Rubber Duck ....
    14 Mar 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • topcat1906
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    That is a lot more power than I had expected from a truck! Locomotive dynamic braking is not much more with numbers around 900 volts, 700 amps range.
    14 Mar 2014, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    IIRC Norfolk Southern is looking for a solution that will handle 100 to 200 amps of regenerative braking charge, not 700. The graphs presented by NS and Axion at the ASME rail conference never went over 100 amps and even if you include the "Lost to Ground" figure in the Axion segment the total available never went over ~220 amps.

     

    I think the biggest difference between the rail profile and our truck profile will be a longer duration on high-amp regenerative braking events because it takes a long time to slow or stop a train.
    14 Mar 2014, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3450) | Send Message
     
    IIUC, NS is using multiple parallel strings though, so 100-200 amps per string could still equate to several hundred in total...
    14 Mar 2014, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    That is also true. While we only have one string of batteries, they undoubtedly have a dozen or more.
    14 Mar 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    They ordered batteries for 16 strings for the yard switcher. Multiple drive/regen motors?
    14 Mar 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    I don't know enough about locomotive drive motors to even venture a guess, but I have to imagine that managing 16 battery strings is more challenging than managing one.
    14 Mar 2014, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "I think the biggest difference between the rail profile and our truck profile will be a longer duration on high-amp regenerative braking events because it takes a long time to slow or stop a train. "

     

    Aren't depth of charge and discharge as well as duration of events also probable in the switcher locomotive. Any time it is moving, an EL will be drawing power at a fairly high rate, absorbing power at a high rate while stopping, and "pausing" between cycles only when at rest.
    14 Mar 2014, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    If they self equalize it's a whole lot easier. Just one weak link in a chain as they say. We saw that in the data NS shared with the odyssey batteries.

     

    Strings in parallel? Similar effects but across the matrix vs down the matrix. Tons of instrumentation can monitor it and compensate to some level but it really can't fix the problem so that it doesn't compromise the whole system. And the original way NS packaged the batteries it took an act of God to get in and replace the problem batteries.
    14 Mar 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    D-inv> I expect a lot of differences between our load profile and the switcher, particularly when it comes to depth of discharge because we only use the top end of the voltage curve, but AFAIK the real challenge is DCA for regenerative braking.
    14 Mar 2014, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "I expect a lot of differences between our load profile and the switcher, particularly when it comes to depth of discharge because we only use the top end of the voltage curve, but AFAIK the real challenge is DCA for regenerative braking."

     

    Could be. But I'm thinking absence of any temperature issues with the ePower truck might be explained by shorter duration charge/discharge events and longer pauses between events than in the electric switcher locomotive. ISTM while working an electric switcher locomotive would sustain large current draw generating heat for long periods in both accelerating and decelerating with little to no pause between and hence less cooling time than with ePower's application.
    14 Mar 2014, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    That's entirely possible but I don't know enough to make an educated guess either way.
    14 Mar 2014, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    HTL yes a weaker acid solution is used than AGM.
    I remember this but not from patents.
    I believe it had to do with a longer lasting battery ie reduced sulfation of the positive plate. While it normally is not a problem for LA, as the negative plate falls apart first. With the longer life of PbC this was looked into as an issue.
    14 Mar 2014, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    D-inv -->> Thanks for that info. I have a good memory, but it is short, you know....
    14 Mar 2014, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, One also needs to remember that the ePower truck has not been put through a worst case scenario as would occur during certain seasons and duty cycles with a battery string near end of life as some known variables. This is what the autos do in test labs prior to having test fleets on the road. ePower is more dependent on Axions internal tests and some level of positive feedback from NSC testing although what level of the NSC data is available not fully known.

     

    All I'm saying is that the opportunity for additional challenges given the ePower launch method is higher since they don't have the backing and history larger organizations have at their disposal. But then, that's how apple carts get upset.
    15 Mar 2014, 05:29 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    U 393 .... :-) I would not have been able to recall where I read the info if it had been much longer since reading it.
    15 Mar 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    "This is what the autos do in test labs...."

     

    Yeah, riiiiight, that worked out great: Say, let's ask the drivers and passengers of certain Government Motors vehicles how well they think GM's "test lab" predicts and reproduces real world conditions. Oh wait, they're dead.

     

    The "...backing and history [of] larger organizations [aka flocks, herds, etc]" is just maybe a little more than myth - depends on who you ask and when.

     

    The testing of Axion's products continues - either they're a valuable solution (I make money) or not (I don't) - but I don't have even an inkling of suspicion that Axion Power is subject to the same government-driven and/or union-driven fat cat pressures, intrusions or kickbacks that caused the death of innocent or duped investors.
    15 Mar 2014, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Edmund, What we learn vs how we use the information are two different things. We're in agreement. Never confuse the two.

     

    Having worked for GM, with them and in the end for them again I'll share one thought. I think as a parent you need to worry more about your government. GM's incompetence is more in the past. Our government is still heading in the same direction and the ramifications are far more reaching. I will not argue your disgust of GM of old.

     

    Just my opinion.
    15 Mar 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Rick Krementz
    , contributor
    Comments (2479) | Send Message
     
    JP - Sounds very positive. I glad to hear Axion is doing random autopsies; too bad (but unfortunately typical/not surprising) they are not sharing details, even with their customer, who has signed an NDA.
    15 Mar 2014, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Since we don't have any electrochemists on staff the autopsy details would me meaningless trivia. In the final analysis the only detail we really care about is the length of the product warranty for our application.
    15 Mar 2014, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    Appreciate your moderation, iindelco. And I've got those priorities squared away as you suggest: All of my boys (four) vote for limited-government Libertarians, but I'm the only dyed-in-the-wool Ford guy (thankfully, I can honestly say none own a Chevy, perhaps out of respect). Love the small block though, but that goes waaaaay back before unions embraced rampant greed requiring taxpayer-defrauding bailouts.
    15 Mar 2014, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    re' "AFAIK the real challenge is DCA for regenerative braking."

     

    Not disagreeing, but by multiple accounts, including in the ASME joint presentation, string equalization seems to be considered to be of equal importance amongst PbC benefits and the challenges other solutions face.
    15 Mar 2014, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Since we've been using the PbC string equalization hasn't been an issue for us. The batteries simply do their thing. We monitor them individually but we haven't encountered any problems.
    16 Mar 2014, 06:06 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    John, Someone asked before and I don't remember seeing the answer. Are you doing any monitoring for temperature anywhere in the battery pack? I think the ability to monitor this characteristic, based on the little we've learned of the NSC testing, woulg be an important data point. Axion can probably tell you where to expect peak temp.
    16 Mar 2014, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    We monitor the temperature of each battery in the string along with the state of charge. So far, we haven't run into any heat problems but we haven't ventured far from Cincinnati and most of our test intervals last for a couple hours as opposed to ten hour shifts, or back to back ten hour shifts. If heat becomes an issue, we may need to upgrade our passive temperature control systems.
    16 Mar 2014, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Thanks John. Happy to hear you are monitoring this metric during the initial project phases at least.
    16 Mar 2014, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Until we're certain that heat is not going to be an issue, we have to monitor temperature and be ready for Plan B if problems arise. Anything less wouldn't be prudent.
    16 Mar 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    JP -->> "The importance of the Exide DCA numbers is twofold. First, the rule of thumb in micro-hybrids is that a city driver will have 1 engine off event per kilometer. Losing 3/4 of your DCA over 5,000 miles of driving means the battery is worthless in months.

     

    Second, the automakers want a minimum of 100 amps of DCA for simple stop-start, although they'd really prefer 150 amps."

     

    Something that is easy to overlook is that for Gen II micro-hybrids that are due out with coasting/sailing, is that there
    absolutely has to be the electrical juice required for electric steering (Cadillac STS w/active stability control) and
    electric brakes (Mercedes SL class) and electric transmission control (BMW 7 series). All of that stuff has to be powered and at the ready along with all of the regular stuff like wipers and lights.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    User 39. Great post. Added thoughts to emphasize. Once you electrify these higher level safety functions they have to work. So not only are the event opportunities going up considerably but so are the loads along with the fact that the new loads are safety related processes. Don't know if I want a standard LAB that fails w/o warning when I'm going down the road at 60 km/h with the engine off.

     

    Also, Once you take into consideration the added costs of these higher order functions you now are going to perhaps get a little more upset if they are never working. With low order SS the highway cycles are the long battery charging opportunities. Now, with coasting, there are some of the longest opportunities to turn off the engine and utilize the batteries services. If you couldn't recharge the battery before due to low DCA this sure takes a bad design and makes it a disaster.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    iinde, so which battery chemistries work for these applications? The PbC, thermally regulated li-ion and NMH?

     

    Let's say it's a 10 degrees F morning. When the vehicle owner first starts his car, at least for a time these features will need to be powered by the engine alone. Zero sum game there, so power declines in some other application, like acceleration.

     

    The net is, aren't we seeing a funnel of chemistries with PbC a specifications winner at the bottom? Like we've thought for awhile? We've just needed something to force the automakers our way, be it regulations that require emissions-reducing battery systems to last a long time, or applications that force such a move on their own.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I think you've got the possible solutions down.

     

    I am of the opinion that regulations are already in place once you electrify some of these higher order functions. SAFETY trumps all and is not negotiable. Yes, you can play with the stats to define a safety related recall as an example, but nobody plays this game when they are testing/picking technology to assure safety. It's only done at unfortunate times when you've made mistakes.

     

    Things like steer and brake by wire, consistent acceleration (read electric supercharging), engine starting after a stop event while coasting etc. are safety related functions. IMO they will require storage that works and they will require redundancy.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    iinde, yeah, I remember ur comment about the danger of the driver not having the 15%-20% additional power he thought he'd have at, say, an intersection.

     

    Interesting. Is there a an example of this issue being addressed before? Turbo lag, for example, since it still exists, has evidently been deemed ok. Perhaps the automakers can use that precedent to argue that electric system power lag is ok, too. IOW, if the batteries are not ready to help, then the engine supplies all the power, which could be considered a lag of sorts.

     

    Eventually, the automakers come to us, but I'd rather that process go faster. Subsidies and rules would help that, but that will probably take too long to help anytime soon. That's why I prefer the applications like hybrid trucks, where the cost/benefit may be so strong, and the prospective customers so flexible, that sales success happens relatively quickly on its own.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    iindelco-->> All these items have to be in reliable working order. Heck, I get upset just when the proximity unlocking on my STS doesn't work right.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I,

     

    Some thoughts about lags in my Endeavorlita X3.

     

    The turbo lag is much more annoying to me than the quarter second hesitation of engine restart in the ISS mode, but not annoying enough to switch from Eco mode to Sport mode and burn more fuel pulling through intersections.

     

    When ISS shuts off the engine, it also shuts down power steering, which can cause a noticeable clunk in the steering wheel if the wheels are not perfectly straight, like in the middle of an intersection waiting for a left turn. I've gotten accustomed to that, but it would be a bit disconcerting to someone not used to it. This is one of those electrified functions that micro/mild hybrids have to make smoother and seamless during the ISS events in order for the driving public to accept this as a safe universal fuel conservation technology.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I seem ti recall some issues but I'll have to look. The big difference between something like turbo lag and the proposed Valeo/kia offering is one is expected every time and the other is random. Take something that is expected to deliver say 20 % more horsepower on down sized engines and turn it off randomly and you have big issues. You can't time things like mergers and passing because you don't know how much HP you'll have. A smart person will always drive on the cautious side. The other 9x % will call a lawyer looking to get rich.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    SM, thx. Sounds like a BSG would help fix the roughness.

     

    How much does the power lag impact safety? Is it important enough for the automakers to say, "we have to have this system up and ready to three 9's" or whatever? If so, then how does Kia go w/ soon-to-fail non-PbC lead carbons?

     

    iinde, just saw ur post. Hopefully Kia and the other automakers look at it ur way and incorporate batteries that always work for a long time.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Mr. I, I already started my opinion. That being that unless I don't understand something about LAB's w/ carbon additives added to the NAM, they are NOT going to launch w/ AGM w/ carbon additives for the electric supercharger 28 VDC apps. If they do, I was wrong and it works. They WILL NOT launch with the storage system being a scam like it is on simple SS. NEVER gonna happen.

     

    BTW, I posted, I think two days ago, an article on Kia's thoughts on where they would apply new tech. to meet the EU emissions targets. In the article they clearly pointed at the Optima, as a larger vehicle, is where the electric supercharger would provide the added benefit to assist them in meeting the challenges. Then, IIRC, he pointed out it might be launched on smaller vehicles for more sporty drive performance. So they are targeting it to their higher cost range which, to me, indicates the sensitivity to the added cost. It's gotta work in these higher cost vehicles. They have been one of the more successful, of late, full range auto companies. They are not going to "GM" their brand.

     

    His last point in the article was that they watch where their competitors make mistakes and make sure they don't repeat them. AGM or carbon additives to the NAM? I wouldn't bet on it.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    iinde, hopefully, from ur keyboard to Axion's order book.

     

    I can't wait to see if Axion can/will provide any useful auto info during the full-year 2013 stuff in a couple weeks. Even just a couple revealing words could really help, such as, "we've included auto in our 2015 sales forecast" or, "things have picked up", or "This is an Optima time to Be More Welcome to expansion."
    13 Mar 2014, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "Don't know if I want a standard LAB that fails w/o warning when I'm going down the road at 60 km/h with the engine off."

     

    Shucks, iide, just think of the adrenalin rush your gonna miss if you don't have that experience. Not as bad as complete loss of steering, but had the engine quit abruptly on an '89 Buick LeSabre while cruising IS81 @ 70 - 75 mph with 18 wheelers all around. One might say there was "spring in the step" for a while after 'power steering' to the shoulder and 'power braking' to a stop without becoming 'bug juice' on an 18 wheeler. (Never considered buying another GM product.)
    14 Mar 2014, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, I'm glad you were able to manage to pull over so you could survive having become yet another satisfied GM customer.

     

    Was this the failure mode which was VERY prominent in the 3.8 liter Series II engine at that time and was the engine you had?

     

    " These engines were noted for having problems with the plastic upper intake manifold cracking around the EGR passage. The engine would then hydrolock. The lower intake gaskets and upper intake manifolds were revised, correcting all these issues.
    14 Mar 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (744) | Send Message
     
    Is'nt that more or less that happened with the current GM ignition switch scandal?
    14 Mar 2014, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "Was this the failure mode which was VERY prominent in the 3.8 liter Series II engine at that time and was the engine you had?"

     

    3.8 liter engine sounds right but was a day or two ago. I do remember, though, the dealer saying they couldn't find any cause for the problem and the car was not recalled. Liked the car otherwise until the engine quite happened.
    14 Mar 2014, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    303 Deaths Seen in G.M. Cars With Failed Air Bags
    By DANIELLE IVORY and HILARY STOUTMARCH 13, 2014
    (NY Times)

     

    http://nyti.ms/OqC6vU

     

    "The G.M. ignition problem is connected to air bags because, to deploy, they require electrical power provided by the engine. The power is needed for a complex electronic system of sensors and a computer that consider factors ranging from how rapidly a vehicle is decelerating to how close the occupant is seated to the air bag, said David Zuby, the chief research officer for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, which is financed by insurance companies and conducts about 80 crash tests a year.

     

    Then, the computer determines whether to deploy the air bag with full force or at a lower level. The goal is a balancing act to protect the occupant from the impact of the crash, while keeping the air bag itself from causing an injury.

     

    The Center for Auto Safety’s letter said that the 303 victims were in the front seat, where air bags are situated, and had died in nonrear-impact crashes of Cobalts and Ions, in which the air bags did not deploy. That is about 26 percent of a total 1,148 fatalities — including those of back-seat occupants — that involved the same models."
    14 Mar 2014, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    WTB: CNBC reports that the fix was a $1 plastic part and GM nixed it for business reasons. Back then they were in dire straits due to health and pension costs, per Phil LeBeau on CNBC.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2014, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Albert, That one sounds like another big GM cover up. Oh, it's "Old GM".
    -
    D-Inv, No yours must have been another issue then. The one I pointed out would have done pretty major damage to the engine. When I bought my 2003 with the 3.8 liter series II they had a recall so they could dump a mixture of walnut shell pieces and ginger root into the radiator to help slow down the incidence of this problem. Yes I felt great about having them do this with about 2k miles on the car. Gotta get it out of warranty before it fails you know!

     

    I did get the car to last though. Took it home and dumped an additional 2 bottles of Bars stop leak sludge into the cooling system. Also felt great about doing that on a brand new car. I had that "Great GM Feeling".

     

    Oh, Just in case you think I'm pulling your leg.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fGb26C
    14 Mar 2014, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "Oh, Just in case you think I'm pulling your leg.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fGb26C"

     

    Not funny, but couldn't help laughing about the ginger root and walnut shell bit.

     

    Even more glad we switched to Toyota Camry (less power under the hood but acceptable acceleration and just as comfortable and roomy as the LeSabre for less money).
    14 Mar 2014, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2773) | Send Message
     
    "Don't know if I want a standard LAB that fails w/o warning when I'm going down the road at 60 km/h with the engine off."

     

    Well along that line.

     

    "While accelerating up the 101 north onramp, something happened. I'm not sure what as I'm not a tech guy. The best way to describe the feeling would be to compare it to a manual-transmission car stalling in first gear. The Tesla jerked violently forward, and then lost power.

     

    The Tesla's massive display starting flashing messages: "12V Battery Power Low - Car May Shut Down Unexpectedly" and "Car Needs Service - Car May Shut Down Unexpectedly." The funny thing about it was that the car already had shut down unexpectedly. I had no power to accelerate and I couldn't move over to the shoulder. I simply had to coast to a stop on the onramp of a Los Angeles freeway, well after dark.

     

    My son hit the hazard icon on the dash and we hopped out of the car. We've all seen videos of stalled cars on freeways getting plowed into by distracted drivers. We weren't hanging around for that.

     

    I did get back in the car for a moment when the onramp was clear. I wanted to try again to restart the car to get it out of traffic. No dice. I got out, and we stayed well clear of the disabled Tesla after that.

     

    I called a friend who lived nearby and asked him to take my kid home. No need for both of us to be stuck on the side of a freeway. He suggested we put the car in neutral and roll it over to the shoulder or down the onramp and onto the street. Great suggestions, but we couldn't get the car out of gear.

     

    It's worth noting that between my friend and me, we have nearly two decades of car-sales experience. That doesn't make us experts in car technology, but we've both driven thousands of cars over the years. Chances are if we couldn't find a way to move the Tesla, the average driver wouldn't have been able to either.

     

    We got Tesla roadside assistance on the phone, and learned that in 45 minutes or less a tow truck would arrive to get me off the road. About 30 minutes later, the truck arrived.

     

    The timing couldn't have been better. While the tow truck was setting up to load the Tesla, whatever power source was keeping the hazard lights blinking failed.

     

    If the tow truck didn't arrive at exactly when it did, the stalled Tesla would have been nearly invisible to traffic getting on the freeway. "

     

    http://edmu.in/1nSY3ys
    14 Mar 2014, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Froggey. Seems an auto analyst had the same problem in Germany. Youtube link from the first response to your article. Ouch.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fYRKKF
    15 Mar 2014, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • User 393748
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    JP -->> As I understand it, PACCAR is now making their own engines for their KW and Peterbilt trucks. I did hear something about CAT getting out of selling CAT engines to the class 8 (and may be smaller) truck market. So, who knows.... you may be getting a suprise phone call or visit from PACCAR one day.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • dlmca
    , contributor
    Comments (368) | Send Message
     
    APH

     

    Were you a former newspaper man?

     

    I note the edge to the headlines growing sharper
    13 Mar 2014, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Milo2
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate the feedback from my post about "chatter". Just to be clear, my suggestion was in no way meant to limit speech, but just a response because of comments made by the Host who seems overwhelmed. It was meant as a charitable gesture.

     

    For the record I have been an Axion shareholder around two years. It is, for me, a sizeable portion of my portfolio. My average cost is $.26.

     

    Does this make me an Axionista? :)

     

    And is this post chatter? ;(

     

    :)
    13 Mar 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    You're breaking your own rules, Milo2. But that's the way with the Axionistas - they are all natural born rule-breakers.

     

    Vivan los Axionistas!

     

    D
    13 Mar 2014, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    You sound like an Axionista to me. It takes a strong constitution to buy a stock despite a bad price trend and then hold or add as the trend worsens because the basic investment thesis has not changed.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1087) | Send Message
     
    "Does this make me an Axionista? :)"

     

    Yep, overweight and underwater -- but as hopeful as ever!
    13 Mar 2014, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/N9N0VJ

     

    and

     

    http://bit.ly/1kmcGuG
    13 Mar 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2302) | Send Message
     
    Milo,

     

    Your chatter is welcomed and embraced here.

     

    Sounds like you've earned the "Axionista" epithet. My condolences.
    14 Mar 2014, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    M2,

     

    a) Yes, you are an Axionista. To this point, a frustrated one. :>)

     

    b) Yes, this is chatter.

     

    To your point, I agree that our host has had to work excessively to support us class of chatterboxes. ( A less sensitive galoot would have used the word, "blabbermouths", but I being a gentle soul would not). I am dithering over thanks for him, and propose this board buy him a nice dinner out as thanks. I have thought about your concern for two weeks now, and that is my proposal.

     

    There might be security concerns for one of us, but next chance I get to go into town, I'll check with my post office to see if I can rent a box for a month for gathering chips from us. Seems to me for ten bucks a pop we can buy him a rather nice fish 'n chips & an upscale bottle of Boone's Farm. Let me fret over this a bit.

     

    As for thanking JP, that's impossible in tangible ways. I believe he knows his value to us and I am certain that is his intent. My first notion for thanking him is to let him take me out to lunch when convenient. :>)

     

    Oh yeah. Welcome, Milo2! Now that the pleasantries are out of the way expect to be kicked around like everyone else.

     

    :>)
    13 Mar 2014, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Ameresco profit falls 69% on weaker margins

     

    http://bit.ly/1gnaCBG

     

    "For 2014, the company forecast revenue of $560 million to $600 million, below estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $608 million.

     

    Ameresco been hurt by customers delays on renewable-energy projects in recent quarters, though its backlog had increased lately. However, as of Dec. 31, total construction backlog was $1.35 billion, compared with $1.48 billion a year earlier.

     

    The backlog included $361.9 million of fully-contracted backlog of signed customer contracts for installation or construction of projects, which Ameresco expects to convert into revenue over the next year to two years.

     

    "We expect challenging market conditions to continue in 2014," President and Chief Executive Officer George Sakellaris said. "Revenues are expected to be consistent with 2013, while operating efficiency measures should improve profitability."

     

    See also (company news release):

     

    http://bit.ly/1gnaAtQ

     

    ======================...

     

    Not sure if poor management, or just a company rocked by growing, well financed, tough competition ... or both.

     

    Natural selection?
    13 Mar 2014, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Musk bringing storage to the masses:

     

    http://bit.ly/N9NpYr

     

    Creative way to get a demo fleet out there.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Hawaii?

     

    I thought there were issues there where the local utility had killed a lot of installer work by not allowing new connections (in some areas?) for a while.

     

    Wonder if the addition of Storage to "straight PV" changes the equation, though that's created a debate/excuse (in California I believe) about whether net metering was getting gamed or not.

     

    Of course who could blame "authorities" in California about being a little paranoid along those fear of "gaming the system" lines ... Solar City has had some heat already, and even Demand Response got gamed and resulted in some prosecutions ...

     

    e.g.

     

    Two FERC settlements illustrate attempts to ‘game’ demand response programs

     

    Written by Jim Pierobon on July 25, 2013

     

    http://bit.ly/1kmuGoG
    13 Mar 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    It anyone else experiencing the lack of new message flags associated with Axion concentrator 314 only? I did reboot and still not working. Just to emphasize, I am getting flags for past concentrators.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    I'm getting flags in Safari.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Getting flags in Chrome.
    13 Mar 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    Getting flags in Firefox on Linux.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2014, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • jveal
    , contributor
    Comments (659) | Send Message
     
    iindelco, SA doesn't recognize your new mug shot. :-)
    13 Mar 2014, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys!

     

    I'll try clearing out the cache and rebooting. No flags with fast and furious posting doesn't work for obvious reasons. I miss some as it is.

     

    Maybe I'm just snow blind from recent events. Or delirium from coconut thaw syndrome after a hard freeze in conjunction w/ well worn lower back over worked pain? VW, keep your snow blower and/or plow!
    13 Mar 2014, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    Getting flags in Windows Firefox.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Jveal! Strange.
    14 Mar 2014, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    I use the space bar as "page down" and have seen situations when I first read a new Concentrator where I click the check box to "track new comments" and then hit space bar to "page down" and instead of paging down, it removes the check from the check box. Sometimes I don't notice that the check has disappeared.

     

    Wonder if something like that might have happened to you.
    14 Mar 2014, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • WayneinOregon
    , contributor
    Comments (1087) | Send Message
     
    I've been assuming we're past the point of needing to be concerned about a $40K daily trading volume. -- Correct?
    13 Mar 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Unless there's a big bust in my February 1st estimates, we're past the point of worrying about low volume. The kind of activity we're seeing so far today does, however, add a little credence to my speculation that yesterday may have been ZRPSOD (or if you prefer AXPW).
    13 Mar 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Are these the brass terminals and plastic shipping covers for them? Or are these Pb terminals for their classic car biz? Only nine cartons would seem to indicate brass.

     

    Lead as in Pb or lead as like "leader". Both are possible.

     

    http://bit.ly/1kmqTHY
    13 Mar 2014, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Let's consider the odds. Personally I think it's higher chances they had to order more parts to satisfy a PbC order, than that they happened to run out of parts now for their low volume racing car biz.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if Axion has received this type of product from this supplier in the past and how often?
    13 Mar 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    There was also a pallet of carbon shipped on 8.28.2013

     

    http://bit.ly/AnieIv
    13 Mar 2014, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    RBrun, The answer is yes as they show 10 shipments from the supplier and I recall the same shipments in the past. However I can't recall if this is the same type of shipment and from the same company as AP Marshal posted about July/August of last year. In that case we thought it was brass terminals however I don't recall if it specifically had "brass" in the wording.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    ii,

     

    Thanks for that. Sure would be nice to be able to associate the shipment to PbC production!
    13 Mar 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    I should note that their data system is a bit off... Axion has been labelled different names by different shippers. Like Axion Power Battery Mfg. So there are actually more than 10 shipments.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    Activated carbon shipments are unequivically the PbC. These other items could be for the toll contract batteries, which is what I assume, to be conservative. Unless you guys keep digging and find out their PcC related. Thx.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Ranma, Understood. I was referring only to the shipments from this one point source.
    -
    RBrun, I watch activated carbon shipments for that. August of last year appears to be the last of two shipments in 2013. I do think the internal usage rate for this material was a little skewed because Axion built so much inventory of carbon sheeting at the end of 2012 and perhaps early 2013 to debug the automated carbon sheeting process. But clearly Axion has no high level of activity in this area IMO. Unless the are Bond -> James Bond.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    Kuraray is the same company previously involved. Like 100% certain. If that's the question.
    14 Mar 2014, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1558) | Send Message
     
    Although their web site is a bit prettied up:

     

    Link will take you to their page for the YP-50F carbon:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hjPYAG
    14 Mar 2014, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    So far it appears that we might be realizing the low volume days JP suggested we might have as a sign the PIPERS have left the building!
    13 Mar 2014, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    It took time to flush out the last of the Japanese snipers in the Pacific islands after the end of WW-II so it's too early to be certain that the PIPErs are really gone, but there doesn't seem to be any supply side pressure. I suppose what we really need to test the theory is a 100,000 share buy order.
    13 Mar 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    lol, good analogy John. I would imagine that Axion will know when the requirements of PIPE contract are complete? Would it make sense for Axion to release a PR announcing same?
    13 Mar 2014, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • AWOL ENGINEER
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    If I put in that order and they sell them to me, it would prove they are still around but also let me know that the price is surely to fall lower without news.... Can't we test the theory without losing money?!
    13 Mar 2014, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    Today's big drop-off in trading volume is one of the two indicators I'm looking for. The other will be a big drop-off in the reported FINRA short sales for the day. For today the FINRA short percentage was on the low side at 22.5%, but nowhere close to the single digits I'm expecting. A few more days of watching the volume and FINRA short percentage numbers should tell the tale.

     

    The surest sign will be a spiking price on relatively low volume, but many are looking for a bit more assurance that the beatings are over before risking another one.
    13 Mar 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    I can't believe only 21,700 shares traded so far. This is truly ZRPSOD!

     

    Now, shall we bid the price up to $1? ^_^
    13 Mar 2014, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • Nicu Mihalache
    , contributor
    Comments (1081) | Send Message
     
    Please go ahead Musketeer ;)
    13 Mar 2014, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Nicu, You trying to impart the "one for all" portion of the chant first! ;-O
    13 Mar 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    I think Axionistas have their fill of shares and will only buy more at the lower prices such as we got used to for months. Meanwhile the news based traders are gone. This is one explanation of why we seem to be settling in to a stabilizing support level around .16 for now on very low volume.

     

    My guess is that sans news it will sink back some more. I hope so as I hope to buy more. On good news though a spike in price and volume is likely; on *very* good news it could multiply in short order.
    13 Mar 2014, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Yesterday's NSC/GoRail in DC is followed by today ... which appears to me to be mostly an intense lobbying day:

     

    2014 Railroad Day on Capitol Hill
    Renaissance Washington
    March 13, 2014
    Washington, DC

     

    http://bit.ly/1kP2hdv

     

    Who Should Attend?

     

    Attendance is open to all Class I, II, and III railroad personnel, shippers, state and local government representatives, as well as members from the supplier community with an interest in furthering the political goals of the railroad industry.

     

    Agenda

     

    6:30am

     

    Railroad Day Registration Begins

     

    7:00am - 8:30am

     

    Railroad Day Orientation
    Continental Breakfast served
    Pick up Hill appointment schedules and leave behind materials

     

    8:30am

     

    Group goes up on the Hill

     

    9:00am - 4:30pm

     

    Hill Appointments Take Place

     

    4:30pm

     

    Railroad Day Events Conclude

     

    6:00pm - 9:00pm

     

    Rail Industry Legislative Reception & Dinner
    13 Mar 2014, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    WTB,

     

    Exciting ! Hate to miss it.

     

    VW
    13 Mar 2014, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Fairly long survey article from Progressing Railroading including CNG -v- LNG

     

    Liquefied natural gas could help railroads reap locomotive benefits if regulatory, technical issues are resolved

     

    http://bit.ly/1kmRpRt

     

    "Norfolk Southern Railway also is examining LNG for many of the same reasons. The Class I currently has no plans to purchase locomotives with LNG kits, but is contemplating whether to equip its next order of new locomotives with natural gas piping as a provision for LNG, says Don Graab, NS' vice president of mechanical.

     

    For now, the railroad is constructing a compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered locomotive at its Juniata locomotive facility in Pennsylvania. The EMD GP38-2 unit's engine is being modified to burn only CNG using a kit supplied by Energy Conversions, says Graab.

     

    "We are using this project as a means to evaluate the feasibility of natural gas as a fuel in switching operations where the environmental impact may be a large consideration in conversion," he says."
    13 Mar 2014, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4718) | Send Message
     
    >wtblanchard ... Sadly, I think this CNG loco will see service before NS999.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    DRich, Certainly is a shot across the bow for the NS999. If nothing else it probably is slowing their efforts on the battery yard loco as they decide which direction to move in. Are you of the opinion that they would go one or the other? Would they possibly go with all LNG if it works but still develop the NS999 as a natural progression for the battery tender road loco? Any other paths you see as rational possibilities as it relates to or point of interest?
    13 Mar 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2161) | Send Message
     
    Hi DR,
    Are we back to the "nein nein nein" again? I'm beginning to think we might be a bipolar group (only thotdoc and SM are qualified to diagnose us). ;-)

     

    However, IIRC didn't NS order a small group of batteries at one point and the speculation was to use them on the intermodal (cargo container) cranes in the rail yards? Opportunities, possibilities and speculation, o my. :-)
    13 Mar 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    Iindy: Great find with Import Genius! So Axion has a parts supplier already lined up in China. So the China Syndrome theory still exists. I view that as a plus. But...

     

    Sigh. I'm bummed that Norfolk "seems" to be going with CNG yard switchers. I wonder if national security issues are in play here. I fully realize that back up diesel generated electricity to "fuel" PbCs can easily be done. I admit that I'm nascent in my knowledge with this idea, and maybe VW could evince, but what happens if there's a massive ice storm that knocks out power for a week or longer? Or, cyber warfare, say from Russia or China, or solar flares knock out the grid for an extended period of time?

     

    An electric yard switcher may not be able to get charged, but all a CNG switcher would have to do is pull up to a fuel station, powered by a much smaller generator, to get fueled up.

     

    This is all Sci-Fi stuff. While my power was out for 3.75 days, I finished off an excellent Tom Clancy novel titled "Threat Vector," which was a distant variation to the very cyber warfare discussed above. Scary stuff. (Of course, Jack Ryan Jr. saved the day.)

     

    I am way out of my league here, but with nothing coming out of Altoona (for well over a year I have suspected the real testing was going on in Roanoke, and the Altoona 999 was a decoy), and the above national security potential issues, it's too much for me to ignore that indeed, Norfolk has chosen another direction than the PbC.

     

    Repeat -----> sigh.

     

    13 Mar 2014, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2161) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya,
    I think NS would be smarter than to put all their eggs in one basket (Easter is coming). But NG is only cheap right now until the export facilities are built. I'm not an expert in commodities or petroleum products, but this is what I understand from what I have read.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Maya, I'd look for DRich and VW to share their opinions on CNG vs battery for yard switchers and some possibilities on what might be going on relative to possible implementations or delays. They certaily have par more background to come to more plausible conclusions than I.

     

    I think Axion is buying some of these items in China because for some time it's been the place to be for lower cost. Especially spot buy orders where others generally don't get excited. Many screw machine shops woldn't even talk to Axion based on usage rates and their corporate size.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • ARGE
    , contributor
    Comments (723) | Send Message
     
    I see no reason it has to be one or the other, they could even be complimentary.
    If diesels have to run all the time if they are doing work or not is that true with LNG? could they be used to recharge the 999 if so? I remember reading a long time ago about an emergency back up plan for power where diesel engines could be hooked up to the grid as back up generators.
    13 Mar 2014, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "I see no reason it has to be one or the other, they could even be complimentary.
    If diesels have to run all the time if they are doing work or not is that true with LNG?"

     

    Diesel and NG could be very complimentary, as in both used at the same time which would reduce emissions significantly. Switcher locomotives sitting in a yard idling could be connected to a stationary gas line, obviating need for either CNG or LNG and the energy required to put same.
    13 Mar 2014, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    One issue of the 48V BSG auto system that has garnered very little discussion is the superior string equalization of 4 PbCs versus 4 AGM with carbon additives. Can we assume that AGM+carbon will not equalize in a string much better than AGM? Also, how big an issue is this? Does that fact that it's only 48V (32 cells I guess?) make string equalization less of an issue than it is for say NS or ePower running huge strings and high voltages?

     

    OTOH, since the 48V Kia system seems to need rapid charge/discharge power doesn't that suggest that equalization of the 4 batteries is still vital lest one weak battery of the string pull down performance of the whole?

     

    I think it's possible this one issue alone could tilt the decision scales toward PbC. If AGM+carbon requires extra expense for battery management system (BMS) then that would narrow the cost differential with PbC which requires none and as a bonus has no thermal performance issues, either heat or cold.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Good point R.A., that thought has occurred to me before, but my thought was that the smaller the string and the smaller the level of exertion on the batteries, would make string equalization less important.

     

    Just a WAG though.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Aviator
    , contributor
    Comments (1995) | Send Message
     
    P.S. Earlier I had posted that I thought the chances of PbC in the Kia were low. The more I think about it though, the more I'm inclined to think it's closer to a 50/50 toss up.

     

    The cost differential of PbC over AGM+carbon has been suggested to be under $50 per battery or $200 per car. Conceivably much of that $200 savings if using AGM+C might have to be spent on BMS, to what end? Saving maybe $100 net to end up with an inferior product that jeopardizes reputation and loses repeat customers is not smart business. Even at a $300 or $500 savings it doesn't look like a smart tradeoff given the high potential for warranty costs associated with 4 carbon paste batteries. Let's hope Kia sees it this way.
    13 Mar 2014, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    The NS report makes its points about string equalization. A primary advantage is that you don't overcharge cells while trying to get the weakest cell back up. That destroys the battery life. A self equalizing string would remove the danger.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • greentongue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    I brought up that question but everyone seemed to treat it as "Old News". I would think there a a large number of people "out in the wild" that have never heard of this functionality of the PbC.
    13 Mar 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2937) | Send Message
     
    RA,

     

    I think it also has been speculated that the cost difference can be as high as $100-$150
    13 Mar 2014, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2937) | Send Message
     
    Green,

     

    You are right, outside the regular followers (ie daily) of this board there is much that would be considered news that likely nevers get absorbed by the masses.
    13 Mar 2014, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (2863) | Send Message
     
    Battery tests and costs disclosed/discussed are usually of one battery. I wonder how the total system costs compare between the PbC and the other guys' batteries in strings. The PbC doesn't need much, if any string equalization stuff, and unless the other guys' battery string equalization system works really well, his batteries are going to need replacement even faster in strings than they do when used singularly.

     

    Perhaps there is a "total cost gap graph" that can be made that shows how the gap behaves as the number of batteries in the system increases for certain uses, e.g., one battery and the PbC system is $xx more expensive, then the total system cost difference at 2 batteries is $y, then 4 batteries, 10, 50, etc. By the time the system contains z # of batteries, the PbC system is actually cheaper than the other guys' batteries systems. I'd guess that at 50 or so, like ePower is using, the PbC system is cheaper than the competition, at least for the specs demanded. And even more so at 1,000 in rail. Perhaps it's even cheaper at 3 or 4 batteries for cars.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    Holy smokes Batman. Now there's some creativity.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    Friday's, 3/7, stuff.

     

    03/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from blog (up now).
    # Trds: 599, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 139800, Vol: 5359392, AvTrSz: 8947
    Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.2199, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1847
    # Buys, Shares: 358 2903188, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1860
    # Sells, Shares: 237 2420204, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1833
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 36000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1755
    Buy:Sell 1.20:1 (54.17% "buys"), DlyShts 1573661 (29.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 65.02%

     

    I suspect that we are quite near the end of this push up.

     

    The trading breakdown by time is very detailed again today.

     

    The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768 and $0.0769 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1478 vs $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749 and $0.0742 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.

     

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 12.78%, 45.63%,27.73%, -9.96% and 2.87% respectively. Price spread today was 46.60% vs. 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44% and 6.59% on prior days.

     

    All the usual stuff in the blog here.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2014, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    Things I think I'm seeing.

     

    Late-day weakness is not the "norm" now. Looking like late-day "strengthening" might become so.

     

    Watch for pre-PIPErs behavior: ATDF is the most active and often the best on both sides. This says the short sales will be lower as intra-broker trades s/b more common.

     

    NITE, CDEL, CSTI, ... are now less active and less aggressive, although NITE still seems to jump ahead once in a while.

     

    If you think about how price and volume behaved between financing rounds when we had similar conditions, you might be able to predict some longer-term trends sans "big news".

     

    When one MM, such as ATDF, dominates, they can move price on low volume days whatever way they want. Since they don't make any $ w/o volume, their incentive would be to increase volume. Generally this is easier with lowering prices and also fits with "first sell high and then buy low", which gives them excellent profit potential.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2014, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    WTB & Maya, CNG, LNG, & TEMLO are all going to be tried and tested. Luckily for RRs, engine conversion for or from diesel is reasonably familiar territory, so I would expect NS at least to begin testing quickly. Further, given the tight relationship NS has with BNSF, a lot of trial and error will be skipped over as the two roads show every indication of cooperating.

     

    Graab is VP-Mechanical and that means he's a heavy hitter. He is in charge of construction/modificat... of all rolling stock & power on NS. He has the horsepower (pun intended) to make things happen, and I am bedrock certain he will propose multiple fuel sources for federal emissions mandates. I would fully anticipate all new locomotives will be supplied with CNG plumbing because it's a reasonably inexpensive option new vs. a very expensive retro-fit.

     

    I don't think this in any way stops TEMLO. I think total electric will be trialed until NS says it will not. It is important to remember that CNG/LNG is a significant reduction in emissions. TEMLO is a 100% reduction. NS & BNSF are receiving pressure from several cities to reduce emissions in yards. I can't imagine that pressure will disappear. 100% reduction beats "significant" every time. If there is a reasonable way, 100% will be included in emissions solutions.

     

    In my imagination, I visualize a jillion concerns with TEMLO and they have to be solved one at a time. IMO, 999 looks nothing like Generation II that is being designed today. A locomotive is a hugely expensive thing to build, and the many problems that have been uncovered in 999 will be fixed, but the fix will not be cheap. This stuff simply takes time.

     

    The time involved in the NS process is so imponderable to outsiders that I continue to think cubes, ePower, and maybe even auto will come first. But for so long as NS does not announce they have abandoned TEMLO I am certain they are still in the game. I just don't have them entering my thinking regarding near-term Axion fate.
    13 Mar 2014, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, VW. I guess I should go into Rip Van Winkle mode.
    13 Mar 2014, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4232) | Send Message
     
    "This stuff simply takes time.

     

    The time involved in the NS process is so imponderable to outsiders that I continue to think cubes, ePower, and maybe even auto will come first. But for so long as NS does not announce they have abandoned TEMLO I am certain they are still in the game. "

     

    And how, where does the 2013 Sustainability Report announcement to have an electric switcher locomotive by end of year fit into the matrix?
    13 Mar 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    D-inv,

     

    I have to assume they missed their target. I don't know about you, but I do that all the time.

     

    They tried and evidently failed. Evidently.

     

    Dunno though. I just dunno.
    13 Mar 2014, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    Maya, that's the old deal. Y'never know. It would not shock me one iota to be driving through Raleigh and not hear a locomotive shoving cars right next to me. My suspicion is that will be the evidence they're testing now.

     

    Prooooooooooof won't arrive until they make an order. Next week? Next month? Next decade? I haven't a clue.
    13 Mar 2014, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (9715) | Send Message
     
    Let's roll!

     

    http://bit.ly/O8DLGB
    -
    Experts see cheaper, easier way to turn natural gas into fuels

     

    http://yhoo.it/O8DLGC
    13 Mar 2014, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2937) | Send Message
     
    Ummm, you must stay awake. Last time you went radio silent - the pps crashed nearly 2/3rds.
    13 Mar 2014, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    VW: My bad, I should have written above that I appreciate in your taking time to respond to my questions/concerns. Same goes toward the other commenters, too.

     

    It appears that the major driver until we get a snippet from New Castle, will be JP's supply/demand theory/concept.

     

    I'm playing that (JP's) game. But I'm not real happy having to do so. Kind of like eating sugar-coated pins and needles.

     

    Or maybe a better analogy, like being in a carnival bumper car, and all the other bumper car drivers in the ring of wreckless driving are other Axionistas. Because any shares I bump out of my account, will likely be bought by an Axionista, and any shares I bump into my account, will likely be bought from an Axionista, here forward.

     

    I guess if we call for a secret moratorium for Axionistas to not sell shares (no bumping allowed), and maybe 85% abide, we possibly could see share price rise (ahem) significantly.

     

    ####

     

    iindelco: I agree, Axion's PR Department should be posting some visuals and content about BySolar on their website. That "kick butt" cartoon was hilarious.
    13 Mar 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • John Petersen
    , contributor
    Comments (30270) | Send Message
     
    When I compare the number of shares the PIPErs have sold since last fall with the total number of shares sold during that period it's clear to me we don't have any Axionistas playing bumper cars. As near as I can tell, sales by the PIPErs have represented some 85% to 90% of all stock sales for several months now. It looks like the Axionistas are driving single file around the outside edge with scoops instead of bumpers while the PIPErs careen about undercutting each other for hundredths of a penny.

     

    Please take another look at my latest Instablog and spend some time thinking about what the numbers mean.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cGsUcv

     

    If I'm anywhere close to being right, elimination of the PIPEr supply could be epic.
    13 Mar 2014, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10070) | Send Message
     
    JP: I will take a peek (after watching some hoops tonight), but the carnival bumper car analogy was (and is) "here forward," and not in the past.
    13 Mar 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • alsobirdman
    , contributor
    Comments (394) | Send Message
     
    Hey Valley,

     

    I'm going to be in Raleigh next week. Where would I drive if I wanted to look for such a spectacle.
    13 Mar 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2937) | Send Message
     
    Maya, if you are right then volume will trickle to near nothing. I think the core group left won't be selling for a dime or 3 nickels. I suspect it will take quarters or more. But I do fear low volume and paint drying days. We need some news and eyeballs for sure. Hopefully some heavy hitters will notice that the PIPErs are gone and come on in while the water is still relatively come. It only takes one institutions to make this thing jump a few hundred percent. This wont be an easy stock to move millions of dollars into. But if someone wanted to - then the price would have nowhere to go but up after supply has largely dried out.
    14 Mar 2014, 04:37 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5218) | Send Message
     
    bazooka, "one institution",,,part has been a mystery to me. With the stock trading at .10 and 200 million shares out meant that an institution could have bought 5% of the company from the PIPER's selling for $2 million or 2.5% for a measly $1 Million....and they did not.
    Of all the funds out there, the PIPER's have sold twice as fast as they can and no other institution bought either.
    So, IF this company has the potential stated....WHY?
    14 Mar 2014, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18182) | Send Message
     
    LT: Gotta love the ambiguity of the American English.

     

    "... sold twice as fast as they can"

     

    I know it wasn't your intent, but this fits one of my TFH scenarios to "T".

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2014, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Stefan Moroney
    , contributor
    Comments (2658) | Send Message
     
    LT -

     

    There are many unanswered questions that from the long and tortured silence from New Castle can only mean negative implications for the particular question - case in point, Rosewater.

     

    Hopefully, for the people that still hold shares, there are also a number of unanswered questions that will turn out positively.
    14 Mar 2014, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Valleywood
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    also, there are three industry yards in Raleigh. I was really using Raleigh as an example of when we might discover a a TEMLO partial in action. It you are going past Linwood however your chances might be a lot better.

     

    I'm going to Roanoke in two weeks on RR business or as businessy as retirees can get. I really want to go to the Loco shop. I rrrrrrreeeeeeally wanna go. Can't though. :>)

     

    To be honest I wouldn't waste a moment of my time looking if I were you. NS will do what they will do when they will do it. My point poorly made in the post is only by accident are we likely to discover much until NS wants us to discover much.

     

    If you're going to Raleigh, go the the Woodcraft store. That's a lot more fun than any rail yard !
    14 Mar 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Ranma
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    What was unanswered about Rosewater? ISTM that it was a case of someone wanting a "friend price" to sell expensive re-imaginations of backup power using a premium product in an application that doesn't require all that many cycles, then not actually selling that many even after changing batteries.
    14 Mar 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
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    I have manufacturing questions about the Hub fiasco that will never be answered.

     

    TG indicated on a C-Call that the had to switch back to someone that had used previously to get the job done, but I would love to know who made the call on the first choice. I presume he was talking about who helped them build the cube, but who knows for sure?

     

    The Hub UL certification process was FUBAR'ed in my opinion, but we'll never know why. At the very least, it was a PR failure ...

     

    I've heard aspersions that the Hub was badly designed from a manufacturing standpoint (i.e. specifying parts that were no longer available,) but I don't know whether ANY part of that is true and if it is, whether it was AXPW's fault or somehow Rosewater got them in a "too many cooks in the kitchen" situation.

     

    As Hilary (and JP?) might say, "what does it really matter" at this point," but strictly speaking, yes ... there are questions and and is to often the case with these guys ... no answers.

     

    Of course if we were to get a couple of back to back wins, all will be forgotten ... at least until Walter Isaacson writes the TG biography :-)
    14 Mar 2014, 10:52 AM Reply Like